# Spyglass > Insight from afar by M.G. Siegler Public Ghost content for AI and LLM tooling. This file includes a bounded export of public pages first, then recent public posts. Append `.md` to any post or page URL to get the content in Markdown (for example, `/example-post.md`). ## Pages ### About URL: https://spyglass.org/about/ Last updated: 2026-09-18T08:04:58.000Z *Spyglass* is a collection of written works, thoughts, and analysis by [M.G. Siegler](https://mgsiegler.com/about?ref=spyglass.org), a long-time technology investor and writer. While the core focus is on the tech sector, a wide-range of topics will be explored. Perhaps the best way to frame the site is as a real-time notebook for what M.G. is reading and thinking about from a vantage point that's outside of Silicon Valley after so many years on the inside. Operationally, *Spyglass* is [three core products rolled into one](https://spyglass.org/the-spyglass-plan/): - **a blog** – [thoughts](https://spyglass.org/commentary/) on a wide-range of topics posted throughout the week - **a column** – [more in-depth writing](https://spyglass.org/column/) published regularly on the site - **a newsletter** – a [dispatch](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent around timely topics To get **full** **access** to all analysis and commentary – as well as [an audio version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of the columns (instructions are found [here](https://spyglass.org/aloud/)) – you will need to be a member of the *Spyglass* paid tier, [**'*The Inner Ring*'**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/). The cost is $10/month or $100/year: ****𑗏** [****Sign up for Spyglass**](#/portal/signup) ****𑗏** ****⌾** [****Upgrade to The Inner Ring**](#/portal/account/plans) ****⌾** 🧑‍🎓 ****Students:** shoot a note to **students \[at\] spyglass.org* You can follow along with everything on: ****🐦** [****Bluesky**](https://bsky.app/profile/spyglass.org?ref=spyglass.org) ****📕** [****Flipboard**](https://flipboard.com/@mgsiegler/spyglass-o45egajiz?from=share&utm%5Fsource=flipboard&utm%5Fmedium=curator%5Fshare) ****📓** [****LinkedIn**](https://www.linkedin.com/company/spyglass-org?ref=spyglass.org) ****🐘** [****Mastodon**](https://fedi.pub/@mg@spyglass.org?ref=spyglass.org) ****🤓** [****RSS**](https://spyglass.org/rss/)****\*** ****🧵** [****Threads**](https://www.threads.net/@spyglass%5Ffeed?ref=spyglass.org) ****💬** [****WhatsApp**](https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakGjAOCBtxCLvRPBf09?ref=spyglass.org) ****❌** [****Xitter**](https://x.com/spyglass%5Ffeed?ref=spyglass.org) If you're interested in certain topics, those are segmented by [****#tags**](https://spyglass.org/tags/) *–* each tag has [their own page](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple/) as well as RSS feed (e.g. [here's the feed](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple/rss/) for posts about Apple) ****\*** *Members of* [**The Inner Ring*](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) *can also get access to* ***a full RSS feed** *including all paid posts. Email subs \[at\] spyglass.org if you're interested.* --- **One more thing**: If you really, truly want to receive *every* post – the column, *all the blog posts* – in your inbox, members can do so [by clicking here](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/account/newsletters) and toggling on the **'Email Me Everything'** slider. This is *off by default* as it will mean a decent amount of regular email in your inbox. And I already include links to such posts in the newsletter. But I know some people prefer this method of delivery, so... enjoy! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/spyemail.png) 💡 The site is powered by [Ghost](https://ghost.org/?ref=spyglass.org) and designed by [JW](https://www.jw.design/?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) 👋 **Inquire within: hi \[at\] spyglass.org* ## The Inner Ring $10/month or $100/year [ENTER](#/portal/signup) --- 1 With an assist in some elements by [MG](https://mgsiegler.com/?ref=spyglass.org), as in, me. ### Sign Up URL: https://spyglass.org/soon/ Last updated: 2024-05-07T11:23:21.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/SGwhite512.png) ## Sign Up for Spyglass ****The Outer Ring:** Free ****The Inner Ring:** $10/month or $100/year [SUBSCRIBE](#/portal/signup) ### 2soon URL: https://spyglass.org/2soon-2/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T06:39:40.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2023/11/sgblack2.png) Soon... 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Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### #tags URL: https://spyglass.org/tags/ Last updated: 2026-05-21T09:55:34.000Z #### Topics 🗄️ - [AI](https://spyglass.org/tag/ai/) 🤖 - [Apps](https://spyglass.org/tag/apps/) 📱 - [Cars](https://spyglass.org/tag/cars/) 🚙 - [Commerce](https://spyglass.org/tag/commerce/) 🛍️ - [Design](https://spyglass.org/tag/design/) 🧑‍🎨 - [Earnings](https://spyglass.org/tag/earnings/) 📊 - [Email](https://spyglass.org/tag/email/) 📧 - [Entertainment](https://spyglass.org/tag/entertainment/) 🍿 - [Fediverse](https://spyglass.org/tag/fediverse/) 🪐 - [Film](https://spyglass.org/tag/film/) 🎞️ - [Food](https://spyglass.org/tag/food/) 🍔 - [Gaming](https://spyglass.org/tag/videogames/) 👾 - [Investments](https://spyglass.org/tag/investments/) 💸 - [Journalism](https://spyglass.org/tag/journalism/) 📰 - [Legal](https://spyglass.org/tag/legal/) ⚖️ - [Life](https://spyglass.org/tag/life/) 🏡 - [Money](https://spyglass.org/tag/money/) 💰 - [Music](https://spyglass.org/tag/music/) 🎵 - [Podcasts](https://spyglass.org/tag/podcasts/) 🎙️ - [Politics](https://spyglass.org/tag/politics/) 🗳️ - [Open Source](https://spyglass.org/tag/open-source/) 👐 - [Quantum Computing](https://spyglass.org/tag/quantum-computing/) ⚛️ - [Reviews](https://spyglass.org/tag/reviews/) 📲 - [Social Media](https://spyglass.org/tag/social-media/) 🐦 - [Sports](https://spyglass.org/tag/sports/) 🏈 - [Startups](https://spyglass.org/tag/startups/) 🧑‍💻 - [Streaming](https://spyglass.org/tag/streaming/) 📡 - [Stocks](https://spyglass.org/tag/stocks/) 📈 - [Tech](https://spyglass.org/tag/tech/) 💻 - [Television](https://spyglass.org/tag/television/) 📺 - [Writing](https://spyglass.org/tag/writing/) ✍️ - [XR](https://spyglass.org/tag/xr/) 🥽 #### Companies 💼 - [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/tag/amazon/) - [Apple](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple/) - [Comcast](https://spyglass.org/tag/comcast/) - [Disney](https://spyglass.org/tag/disney/) - [Epic](https://spyglass.org/tag/epic/) - [ESPN](https://spyglass.org/tag/espn/) - [Google](https://spyglass.org/tag/google/) - [GV](https://spyglass.org/tag/gv/) - [HBO](https://spyglass.org/tag/hbo/) - [HP](https://spyglass.org/tag/hp/) - [Humane](https://spyglass.org/tag/humane/) - [IMAX](https://spyglass.org/tag/imax/) - [Intel](https://spyglass.org/tag/intel/) - [Meta](https://spyglass.org/tag/meta/) - [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/tag/microsoft/) - [Mistral](https://spyglass.org/tag/mistral/) - [Netflix](https://spyglass.org/tag/netflix/) - [Nintendo](https://spyglass.org/tag/nintendo/) - [NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/tag/nvidia/) - [OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/tag/openai/) - [Paramount](https://spyglass.org/tag/paramount/) - [Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/tag/perplexity/) - [Qualcomm](https://spyglass.org/tag/qualcomm/) - [Rabbit](https://spyglass.org/tag/rabbit/) - [Rivian](https://spyglass.org/tag/rivian/) - [Roku](https://spyglass.org/tag/roku/) - [Skydance](https://spyglass.org/tag/skydance/) - [Slack](https://spyglass.org/tag/slack/) - [SpaceX](https://spyglass.org/tag/spacex/) - [Spotify](https://spyglass.org/tag/spotify/) - [Stripe](https://spyglass.org/tag/stripe/) - [Tesla](https://spyglass.org/tag/tesla/) - [TikTok](https://spyglass.org/tag/tiktok/) - [Twitter](https://spyglass.org/tag/twitter/) - [WBD](https://spyglass.org/tag/wbd/) #### Games 🕹️ - [Super Mario Bros.](https://spyglass.org/tag/super-mario-bros/) - [The Legend of Zelda](https://spyglass.org/tag/the-legend-of-zelda/) #### Movies 📽️ - [**Dune*](https://spyglass.org/tag/dune/) - [**F1*](https://spyglass.org/tag/f1/) - [James Bond](https://spyglass.org/tag/james-bond/) - [**Megalopolis*](https://spyglass.org/tag/megalopolis/) - [**The Oscars*](https://spyglass.org/tag/oscars/) - [**Star Wars*](https://spyglass.org/tag/star-wars/) - [**Tron*](https://spyglass.org/tag/tron/) - [**Wolfs*](https://spyglass.org/tag/wolfs/) #### Music 🎶 - [Pearl Jam](https://spyglass.org/tag/pearl-jam/) - [Taylor Swift](https://spyglass.org/tag/taylor-swift/) #### People 🕺 - [Alexandr Wang](https://spyglass.org/tag/alexandr-wang/) - [Bob Iger](https://spyglass.org/tag/bob-iger/) - [Christopher Nolan](https://spyglass.org/tag/christopher-nolan/) - [Dario Amodei](https://spyglass.org/tag/dario-amodei/) - [David Ellison](https://spyglass.org/tag/david-ellison/) - [David Zaslav](https://spyglass.org/tag/david-zaslav/) - [Denis Villeneuve](https://spyglass.org/tag/denis-villeneuve/) - [Eddy Cue](https://spyglass.org/tag/eddy-cue/) - [Elon Musk](https://spyglass.org/tag/elon-musk/) - [Evan Spiegel](https://spyglass.org/tag/evan-spiegel/) - [Ilya Sutskever](https://spyglass.org/tag/ilya-sutskever/) - [Jensen Huang](https://spyglass.org/tag/jensen-huang/) - [John Giannandrea](https://spyglass.org/tag/john-giannandrea/) - [John Ternus](https://spyglass.org/tag/john-ternus/) - [Jon Stewart](https://spyglass.org/tag/jon-stewart/) - [Jony Ive](https://spyglass.org/tag/jony-ive/) - [Mark Zuckerberg](https://spyglass.org/tag/mark-zuckerberg/) - [Mira Murati](https://spyglass.org/tag/mira-murati/) - [Mustafa Suleyman](https://spyglass.org/tag/mustafa-suleyman/) - [Pat Gelsinger](https://spyglass.org/tag/pat-gelsinger/) - [Phil Schiller](https://spyglass.org/tag/phil-schiller/) - [Sam Altman](https://spyglass.org/tag/sam-altman/) - [Satya Nadella](https://spyglass.org/tag/satya-nadella/) - [Scarlett Johansson](https://spyglass.org/tag/scarlett-johansson/) - [Steve Jobs](https://spyglass.org/tag/steve-jobs/) - [Ted Sarandos](https://spyglass.org/tag/ted-sarandos/) - [Tim Cook](https://spyglass.org/tag/tim-cook/) - [Tim Sweeney](https://spyglass.org/tag/tim-sweeney/) - [Warren Buffett](https://spyglass.org/tag/warren-buffett/) - [Yann LeCun](https://spyglass.org/tag/yann-lecun/) #### Places 🗺️ - [China](https://spyglass.org/tag/china/) - [EU](https://spyglass.org/tag/eu/) - [San Francisco](https://spyglass.org/tag/san-francisco/) - [USA](https://spyglass.org/tag/usa/) #### Products 📱 - [AirPods](https://spyglass.org/tag/airpods/) - [Alexa](https://spyglass.org/tag/alexa/) - [App Store](https://spyglass.org/tag/app-store/) - [Apple Car](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple-car/) - [Apple TV+](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple-tv/) - [Arc](https://spyglass.org/tag/arc/) - [Bitcoin](https://spyglass.org/tag/bitcoin/) - [Bluesky](https://spyglass.org/tag/bluesky/) - [ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/tag/chatgpt/) - [Cybercab](https://spyglass.org/tag/cybercab/) - [DMA](https://spyglass.org/tag/dma/) - [Facebook](https://spyglass.org/tag/facebook/) - [Gemini](https://spyglass.org/tag/gemini/) - '[HomePad](https://spyglass.org/tag/homepad/)' - [HomePod](https://spyglass.org/tag/homepod/) - [iOS](https://spyglass.org/tag/ios/) - [iPad](https://spyglass.org/tag/ipad/) - [iPhone](https://spyglass.org/tag/iphone/) - [Kindle](https://spyglass.org/tag/kindle/) - [Mac](https://spyglass.org/tag/mac/) - [macOS](https://spyglass.org/tag/macos/) - [MacBook](https://spyglass.org/tag/macbook/) - [MacBook Neo](https://spyglass.org/tag/macbook-neo/) - [Meta AI](https://spyglass.org/tag/meta-ai/) - [Meta Quest](https://spyglass.org/tag/meta-quest/) - [Movie Theaters](https://spyglass.org/tag/movie-theaters/) - [Surface](https://spyglass.org/tag/surface/) - [Stargate Project](https://spyglass.org/tag/stargate/) - [Switch](https://spyglass.org/tag/switch/) - [Threads](https://spyglass.org/tag/threads/) - [Venu](https://spyglass.org/tag/venu/) - [Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/tag/vision-pro/) - [Windows](https://spyglass.org/tag/windows/) - [Xbox](https://spyglass.org/tag/xbox/) #### Shows 📺 - [**Game of Thrones*](https://spyglass.org/tag/game-of-thrones/) - [**Pluribus*](https://spyglass.org/tag/pluribus/) - [**Ted Lasso*](https://spyglass.org/tag/ted-lasso/) - [**The Acolyte*](https://spyglass.org/tag/the-acolyte/) - [**True Detective*](https://spyglass.org/tag/true-detective/) #### Sports 🏈 - [College Football](https://spyglass.org/tag/college-football/) - [F1](https://spyglass.org/tag/f1/) - [Michigan](https://spyglass.org/tag/michigan/) 〽️ - [NBA](https://spyglass.org/tag/nba/) - [NFL](https://spyglass.org/tag/nfl/) - [Soccer](https://spyglass.org/tag/soccer/) #### Spyglass 🪬 - [From Afar](https://spyglass.org/column/) (Column) - [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) (Paid Members) - [Inklings](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) (Newsletter) - [Spyglass News](https://spyglass.org/tag/spyglass/) --- ****Sections** #### Pages 📃 - [Apple's AI Saga](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) - [I Was Right...](https://spyglass.org/i-was-right/) 🔮 - [Meta's Great AI Reboot](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/) - [Microsoft & OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) - [The AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/) - [WWDC 2024](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2024/) - [WWDC 2025](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/) #### Reviews 💡 Media - [**The Acolyte*](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-mostly-sucked/) - [**Black Bag*](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) - [**Dune: Part Two*](https://spyglass.org/dune-2-thoughts/) - [**Dune: Prophecy*](https://spyglass.org/dune-prophecy-thoughts/) - [**F1*](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) - [**Flight Risk*](https://spyglass.org/flakes-on-a-plane/) - [**Fly Me to the Moon*](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/) - [**The Fountain of Youth*](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) - [**The Gorge*](https://spyglass.org/the-gorge-apple-tv/) - [**Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery*](https://spyglass.org/satoshi-nakamoto-keyser-soze/) - [**Mountainhead*](https://spyglass.org/atlas-would-have-shrugged-at-mountainhead/) - [**Submerged*](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) - [**True Detective Night Country*](https://spyglass.org/true-detective-night-country/) - [**Wolfs*](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) Tech - [Clicks iPhone Keyboard](https://spyglass.org/clicks-iphone-keyboard/) - [iPhone 17 Pro Max](https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/) - [MacBook Neo](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) - [M4 iPad Pro](https://spyglass.org/m4-ipad-pro-thoughts/) - [M4 MacBook Air](https://spyglass.org/m4-macbook-air-blue-thoughts/) - [Pixel 9 Pro Fold](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/) - [Surf](https://spyglass.org/surf-fediverse-app/) - [Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/) ### The Inner Ring URL: https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/ Last updated: 2026-09-18T08:15:53.000Z Members of *The Inner Ring* have access to the [*From Afar*](https://spyglass.org/column/) columns below, the [*Thoughts On*](https://spyglass.org/commentary/) commentary, as well as an [audio version](https://spyglass.org/aloud/) of newer columns and commentary... ****Membership is $10/month or $100/year** ****𑗏** [****Join**](#/portal/signup) **𑗏** | ****⌾** [****Upgrade**](#/portal/account/plans) **⌾** ****September 2026** [Apple’s NVIDIA Challenge • Snap’s Specs ShitshowMight Apple make their own AI chips? It’s easy to think of a few reasons why they would want to... Will Snap’s SPECs fail to launch? I mean, come on... Read on, for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-367caf0c-1a3e-4100-924c-1d8127332498.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-17--2026--01_24_45-PM-1-fcff36cc-69b8-453b-98cb-d5019720bacb.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-apples-nvidia-challenge-snaps-specs-shitshow/) [AI’s Mixed Messages • Siri AI’s Potential Developer ProblemDo you feel like every other headline and talking point coming out of the companies at the AI frontier contradict each other? You’re not alone there. The future is so bright... because of the nuclear blast that the rogue AI agents will trigger. By accident or on purpose. But![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d052a846-7d00-4bf2-8ef9-3342546104e9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-8--2026--01_50_34-PM-1-96ab270b-0e81-4e22-97ec-38bdf42934ce.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/) [Back to the Frontier AI Races • Netflix Out-YouTubes YouTubeThe caution flags have been lifted. We’re back off to the frontier model races this week! While the Netflix and YouTube race continues unabated. Read on for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6a10302a-1900-475c-9d19-73c0d2170421.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_f1_cars_off_to_the_races_--ar_43_--profile_frkb6cv_--v_8._387b7365-9485-402b-a21b-a2d107022c49_1-1-2622c0db-ae93-4c9f-9953-57a53d7d274d.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-back-to-the-frontier-ai-races-netflix-out-youtubes-youtube/) ****August 2026** [OpenAI’s Comeback • Hollywood’s Ticket DisasterAn OpenAI cover story gets thrown for a loop when their models hack a partner (one which NVIDIA may or may not be buying). And throwing some ice cold water on the blockbuster movie year for Hollywood. Read on for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-aa92f59c-4def-4949-bdb1-61a2122e4423.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-31--2026--05_16_54-PM-1-26f669c1-f06d-49f2-8c23-786336d6770c.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-openais-potential-comeback-hollywoods-movie-tickets-sold-disaster/) [Bill Gates, Doomer • The Mac Mini MorphsUh, Bill Gates sounds a lot like... Dario Amodei in writing up his thoughts on where he thinks the world is headed with regard to AI. It’s a good essay, worth the read, but it’s certainly not going to help the AI perception problems! (And it’s also![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-86a3eef3-4088-4bec-8bc4-570a660518ea.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-26--2026--03_56_25-PM-1-f57a5815-9a45-49a5-b629-80318e6e6d0d.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/) [NVIDIA & Perplexity • Fable’s Stalled GrowthWhy might NVIDIA want to buy – sorry, “hackquire” – part of Perplexity? And why might Fable’s growth be stalling for Anthropic? Read on for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-0b82fbe0-2eb8-4c0f-8664-010a8b61487e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_thoughts_on_nvidia_chips_16x9_--ar_43_--profile_frkb6cv_-_71c44cc1-0cdb-4116-9262-6588e1221d03_3-1-3c13aada-f2dd-4f23-b27a-6d7654be28d2.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-nvidia-perplexity-fables-stalled-growth/) [Pushing or Pacing or Pulling Back From the AI Frontier?Is this a breather in AI development, or something more?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6a672f59-a98f-42e0-a88f-90a46bc24a5a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-19--2026--04_40_32-PM-e27d5f26-fbec-4a20-86ef-2fd6bb46b8b1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) [Microsoft’s Many Aborted AI Takeoffs with CopilotCan Microsoft win by selling pick-your-own model and data sovereignty in an AI Austerity Era?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3da31aaf-ff67-4781-b948-119cd6bced99.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--03_14_53-PM-e989d00c-f650-4b4c-9a65-f04739772693.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/) [What if Anthropic is Right?What if we’re dangerously close to tripping into oblivion?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-e45c1a65-beb7-4682-acae-60c4cb13347d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-3--2026--09_26_21-PM-4f653b4e-95a2-4ed7-937c-0daec0527022.png)](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) ****July 2026** [The CapEx Two-StepMicrosoft’s masterful management of CapExpectations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-22df3f8c-7a30-44a4-9088-65a8b470c45d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-30--2026--01_59_19-PM-909df074-8a16-4b23-ae20-285fd0b710bd.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-capex-two-step/) [There Is No PhoneOpenAI is not building a phone. Amazon is not building a phone. And now SpaceX is not building a phone. Are you sensing a trend? The trend is that basically the entire tech industry is rumored to once again be building their own smartphones. But they’re all denying it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-a0fbc1ae-0f91-40c4-b90b-7139563f3ed2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/l-intro-1726070817-8c3bba76-5df5-40b7-86e7-4a8269ae81d0.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) ****June 2026** [The Market Shifts AppleApple used to bend suppliers to their will. The world has changed.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-70da4b9f-579d-4fd3-b876-a349fe5e3600.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-25--2026--11_40_24-AM-cf42d70d-d04b-481e-aa68-f4cf76e951e9.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) [Regulation for Thee, Not for MeWhy did the Trump administration go nuclear on Anthropic – again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-7d233526-1466-4c17-b3ce-23f8c1af91ce.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-15--2026--10_53_00-AM-1-5111f7bd-dd27-4870-9f58-db0fbf67b79a.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) [They’re Building AI PCs, Will Users Come?Developers will, but at what cost? And can NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google push Apple aside there?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-9135a311-94c5-45aa-86d3-df77ef1e3dcf.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2026--02_20_35-PM-848ba425-8362-4439-b92e-62c1237f928c.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) ****May 2026** [The Great AI IPO RaceSpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all angling…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--05_30_32-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) [Lessons from the LudditesParallels with the Age of AI…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/cf0bf04d-e724-4604-8737-40a48fce67d3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) [The Case for Apple + DisneyAlso the case against what is still a fun, but unlikely deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-10.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-7--2026--02_38_45-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/) ****April 2026** [Stargate Powers Some GaslightsOpenAI would sure like us to believe there’s nothing to see here…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-30--2026--11_10_28-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/) [AI in the SkySpaceX + xAI + Xitter + Cursor + Mistral + Tesla![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23--2026--02_20_37-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) [Meta’s Recurring Apple NightmareWith smartglasses, Apple is once again entering Meta’s turf. Wielding a familiar weapon: the iPhone…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-13--2026--01_49_19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) ****March 2026** [The NFL Will Bleed Cable Dry Before Tech Takes Over TVAmazon, Apple, ESPN, Netflix, and YouTube will clearly eventually control the NFL rights…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1232.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0c7dac29-011614-NFL-Pereira-G4-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) [Meta Keeps MissingEncryption? No. Crypto? No. VR? No. Open models? No. AI? Not so far. Agents? Nothing yet. AR? We’ll see…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1223.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-23--2026--07_50_55-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) [OpenAI’s OdysseyCan they get down to business while maintaining ChatGPT’s lead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1199.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4512f360-b5f4-425a-be59-71cd20bc3d5f_3840x2208-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) [Microsoft Adds More Copilots to Help Copilot CopilotTheir consumer and commercial AI efforts clearly haven’t worked…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1198.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-18--2026--10_17_41-AM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) [Maybe You Can’t Just Throw Money at AIHow and why Meta AI and xAI have failed in AI thus far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1185.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_qj7bpiqj7bpiqj7b-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) [Apple’s Hail Mary, Anthropic’s SaviorIt sounds crazy, but hear me out…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1186.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-10--2026--03_18_19-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/) [When Knees Buckle, then Bend, then BreakOn Anthropic’s war with the Department of War…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1157.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/438356-theon-greyjoy-reek-played-alfie-allen-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) [The Death of the 30% CutGoogle ends the Play Store insanity, putting the pressure on Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1091.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-5--2026--04_26_54-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) [There Are Signs...Private Credit, CapEx, Interest Rates, War, and AI Disruption – oh my!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1090.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-4--2026--01_51_09-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) [Increasingly, Big Tech Owns Big AIThe latest OpenAI and Anthropic rounds drill it home…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1089.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-2--2026--12_56_38-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) ****February 2026** [Apple is About to Have \*Two\* Toaster/Fridge HybridsWill the quotes (and complexity) come back to bite the touchscreen MacBook?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1088.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-26--2026--04_39_34-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/touchscreen-macbook-toaster-fridge/) [ExboxMicrosoft will do one last Xbox push, but there’s probably not a longer path forward – unless AI saves the day; not in the way you think!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1078.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-24--2026--12_08_46-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1023.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) [YouTube TV Finally Kills CableTheir smaller bundles wound the beast, the sports bundle ends it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1022.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-10--2026--05_22_16-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-kills-cable/) [Sometimes It’s Too SlowWith data centers in space. “For shure”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-980.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--07_55_54-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) [Wall Street Starts to Turn on AIConcerns about CapEx and Claude Cowork…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-979.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-5--2026--10_32_51-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) [Space Twitter!Elon Musk tries to merge the AI Race into the Space Race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-973.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-3--2026--02_32_32-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) ****January 2026** [The Anyone-But-Google AI AllianceBig Tech’s billions into OpenAI signal something…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-972.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-29--2026--04_50_36-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) [Apple’s Dark KnightDecoding Tim Cook’s seemingly stunningly stupid strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-971.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_tim_cook_with_a_batman_mask_on_16x9_illustration_--a_4ed451c6-72a9-428d-b92e-aabdbd99ad49_1--1--2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) [Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even AppleWith competent AI incoming, Apple considers an AI Pin…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-932.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-22--2026--01_00_45-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-931.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) ****December 2025** [The AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-819.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-18--2025--10_29_01-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) [Conflicts & Interests in AI\*Of course\* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-818.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--12_46_38-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-791.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product. The![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-790.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) [Meta Bought a HeadacheIs the internal AI pain ultimately going to be worth the price?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-770.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_llama_with_a_headache_cartoon_16x9_--ar_169_--v_7_46ebb08f-7b79-47e5-be04-9824ab200042_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/) [Apple TurnoverThe recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-769.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_apple_turnover_made_with_logos_of_Apple_--ar_169_--v_7_d5ee4b42-f799-4cf3-a50c-d0cca412973b_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) [OpenAI’s One Battle After AnotherBeyond the Google threat, if Anthropic were to IPO before OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-727.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/sqecfsc98p4g1-2-1.gif)](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) ****November 2025** [DeepMind Should Make the UK Proud and EmbarrassedA growing sense that growth will never return to the UK…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-721.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_UK_flag_with_a_stock_market_chart_heading_up_and_rock_a3422e40-e540-444c-99ee-f8319ee1eccb_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/) [NVIDIA Evokes the ‘E’ WordBecause they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-720.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G6jU_qpWkAAJ2q5-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) [Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIAHow do you become a $5T company? It’s simple, really…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-719.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_hammer_made_of_cash_illustration_16x9_--ar_169_--v_1fb7603b-a302-4795-aada-42a5ddf1dfd6_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) [LLMs vs. the World (Models)A key schism in AI heading into 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-588.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_asteroid_flying_across_the_sky_as_volcanoes_explode__fdd28b40-9b8f-49c2-ab1c-d80d6a8eb796_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) [Why Microsoft Pushed OpenAI AsideSatya Nadella’s vision for the future of computing makes it pretty clear that they feel the need to fully control their own AI destiny![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-572.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-13--2025--08_45_02-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) [Meta AI vs. the World (Models)The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-571.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-12--2025--06_54_53-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) [Two AI Roads Diverged...Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-570.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-11--2025--05_02_17-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) ****August 2025** [I Decree: Paramount Should Buy IMAXA new idea for a new company looking to double-down on theatrical…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-153.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/21b33354-217f-451f-bbc5-5fb54a55cd2e-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/) [Tim Cook’s Golden GiftThe fealty payments get more ridiculous – and embarrassing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-114.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-08-07-at-3.41.17---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) [“Open” Comes Back to Bite GoogleAs badly as I now want to bite into a Chick-fil-A thanks to the judge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-113.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OS_TextImage-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) ****July 2025** [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-30.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-22.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-43.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [iPadOS 26 Turns the iPad Into a Sort of ‘Mac Jr.’It’s not bad, but it’s also not really for me. Maybe that’s the point.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-31.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPadOS-26-WWDC_a.jpg-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) [Taking a Bite Out of the Latest Box Office “Records”With ‘Jurassic Park 7’ and ‘F1’, the goalposts keep shifting as the reporting around recent box office numbers remains ridiculous…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-6.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2583_TP_00061-H-2025-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1371.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) ****June 2025** [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1366.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [Apple’s Pitt StopThe drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1321.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f1-movie_review_1750832557353_1750832562273-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) [Does Emo AI Dream of Mundane Tasks?Is an emotional Alexa setting our timers really what we want here?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1281.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_android_dreaming_of_setting_a_timer_--ar_43_--v_7_aec1a077-8086-4966-8bb3-7d533ee2d21f_0-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1181.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) [Can Meta Make Headsets Happen?Can Apple? Can anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1113.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_worn_in_the_future_--ar_21_--v_7_8fe8289a-5ebe-4d01-bfd8-fc05b090a7f2_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) [With AI, Email May Actually Morph Into a Task ListThe end of email might look like bots emailing other bots for you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1071.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_computer_to_send_email_--ar_21_--v__70f1b1d6-5b7f-4a32-8df2-a63be7731662_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) ****May 2025** [Might Apple’s Gaming Ambitions Have a Hidden Quest?A new gaming-focused app could solve one big problem for Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1072.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-28--2025--05_13_14-PM-4-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-gaming-app-store/) [A Cook In Trump’s DoghouseOne missed roadtrip cost Apple hundreds of billions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1031.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-27--2025--09_18_29-PM-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/) [“Not a Normal Company”But OpenAI may finally be making moves towards becoming one…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-935.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2025--08_01_14-PM-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) [Microsoft’s OpenAI Equity Jigsaw PuzzleWith the non-profit maintaining a controlling stake and an FMV floor set by Elon Musk, OpenAI still has a hell of a challenge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-902.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2025--09_28_55-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-890.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) ****April 2025** [Meta’s Sloppy AI Social NetworkThe new ‘Meta AI’ is exactly what you’d expect, in ways good and bad…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-866.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_AI_slop_being_poured_into_bowls_--ar_21_--profile_6kai7_3545e1bf-889b-422b-bcdf-0e3ae22758bc_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) [In the Chat Where It HappensThese high-profile group chats are probably decidedly less interesting than you think they are…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-837.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/b40f438579e07a1d498ac1ddea9ab2ba-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/in-the-group-chat-where-it-happens/) [Buy, Build, or BuryThe strategy permeating the Big Tech antitrust trials will go into overdrive in the age of AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-826.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_burying_a_robot_in_the_sand_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6__830f7c1e-8ba4-4444-aee2-d4aede5ed07c_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) [Why Buy the Llama When You Can Get the Model For Free?Meta would like their rivals’ help in offsetting their AI costs. Good luck.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-825.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_llama_with_a_jar_of_milk_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6_-_ec765ad5-523d-45d3-b240-29aed38be64b_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/) [Apple’s “Faster Horses” Fallback StrategyThe Vision Pro and iPadOS may be going down this path…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-765.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_horse_racing_branded_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--p_05fefd99-9dee-4747-b85c-daef8e3d19fa_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/) [Terminating the AI vs. Hollywood TropesJames Cameron has some interesting – and some refreshing – and some controversial – thoughts about AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-763.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_terminator_holding_a_bouquet_of_flowers_--ar_21_--pro_0b735ec9-f3bf-431c-b5bc-fca76515473a_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) [A Call to AIShopify goes all-in on AI – other companies are sure to follow…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-742.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_call_to_arms_AI_--ar_21_--profile_us5znn6_--v_7_b1281b14-a016-4a89-82e9-9c02a5b0bdb6_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-call-to-ai/) ****March 2025** [The Debt of DamoclesA sword hangs over Elon Musk, CoreWeave, and OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-725.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0986-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/) [The Case for Twitter Going Public — AgainIt takes some squinting, and quite a bit of adjusting, but it’s there — thanks mostly to xAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-574.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blue_phoenix_rising_from_the_ashes_--ar_169_--v_6.1_2bdf2ad2-6a60-4f00-8831-f567981ef325_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-case-for-twitter-going-public-again/) [My God, It’s Full of StargatesxAI and NVIDIA join another $100B AI data center initiative…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-563.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/stargate-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stargate-project-rivals/) [Hollywood vs. AI: The MovieMy god, the open letter is full of stars -- especially Cate Blanchett![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-553.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) [The Curious Case of Amazon’s Anthropic StakeUsing Google’s stake to back into Amazon’s likely much larger stake…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-523.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_exploring_in_the_amazon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_87eed52b-3793-4015-a948-401814463d3c_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) [WeaveWorkCoreWeave stumbled upon a model that works well in a certain type of market…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-522.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_details_photo_of_weaving_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--_bab2a17f-aeb8-4bc0-a66c-9f24dc005f07_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) [Bing When You’re WinningMicrosoft had a window to win consumer AI — and perhaps the future of search![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-519.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/51VyzojTrcL._UF1000-1000_QL80_-2-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) [Thin Is In Before a Foldable Is OutGaming out some ‘iPhone Air’ and ‘iPhone Fold’ options…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-503.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_iphone_that_folds_like_a_book_--ar_21_--profil_2bb22a01-1fbc-4da3-afb3-40b387e43d7f_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) [Is Amazon Writing Checks that Alexa+ Can’t Cash?There’s a lot of vagaries and obfuscation around this launch…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-495.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/assets.aboutamazon-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/) ****February 2025** [OpenAI’s EQ Upgrade to Hold Us Over to the IQ UpgradeThey’re clearly angling GPT-4.5 as being an emotionally intelligent update about getting the “vibes” right![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-487.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_emotional_robot_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_5d849d55-21f1-4f76-a57d-98f93272aeda_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-gpt-45/) [Alexa, I’m SkepticalAlexa+ brings a lot of table-stakes stuff to the table in 2025…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-469.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-26-at-8.21.12-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) [ESPN Balks, MLB WalksAnd it’s partially Apple’s fault!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-450.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_baseball_pitcher_throwing_a_baseball_surrounded_by_co_220f9340-2f23-46ab-96d2-222f830081b4_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/espn-balks-mlb-walks/) [Oh, the Humane-ityHumane’s bad strategy exacerbated their bad timing with the Ai Pin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-436.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/humane-ai-pin-wearable-projector-smartphone-designboom-01-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/) [Amazon & ESPN’s Sports Streaming Collision CourseWith Netflix drafting behind them…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-412.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_F1_cars_with_the_logos_of_Amazon_and_ESPN_and_Netflix_a_4f948e35-d214-4a92-ba80-8ac8050bcc7b_0-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) [Liquidity NowA new standard model for VCs and secondaries…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-402.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_wave_of_money_vector_art_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--_bc633d2d-0735-486b-80a8-83dc03664f7c_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/vc-secondary-liquidity/) [Observations About Sam Altman’s ObservationsHe’s seeking for something deep…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-389.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_painting_of_a_man_wandering_forward_into_a_field_of_t_2ae99a1d-fdbc-408c-bee5-85c148a658f4_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) [Apple’s Elegantly Expressive Pixar LampForget glasses, Apple’s Next Big Thing™ may be a robot…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-382.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/lam-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) [FaceFeedHow Mark Zuckerberg might rejuvenate Facebook with a feed of Meta content, a Fediverse twist, and a splash of AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-369.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_face_with_a_feed_of_information_running_on_top_of_it__328d3603-5953-40e0-805a-ebfb0a76bf13_2-b943166712745797-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/facefeed-facebook-feed-fediverse/) ****January 2025** [Apple’s Record-Breaking Quarter Was SO BORINGApple wins as the AI tortoise in a field of scared hares -- for now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-370.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_falling_all_around_the_apple_logo_--ar_21_--profi_1cc2a89d-6b1e-4d97-9c2d-395334b1df1c_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-earnings-q1-2025/) [Post-Explosion, Seeking the DeepSeek FalloutA guess: DeepSeek itself will matter less than the reaction to it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-358.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_nuclear_blast_with_digital_bits_--ar_21_--profile_zeg_f7dcabeb-2e9f-46f9-a963-7e94d70fb2be_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/) [Should Apple Switch Off Siri?In our Age of AI, Siri continues to embarrass Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-353.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--74--2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) [May Your First Startup Be A Masculine StartupMark Zuckerberg’s heel turn this past week has been all sorts of fascinating.1 For one thing, I don’t think it’s all an act. I think it’s likely a short-sighted and misguided maneuver born out of years of various frustrations, but I don’t think it’s just to curry favor with![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-321.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_bro_dripped_out_with_a_nice_double_chain_big_watch_sung_953c0acb-6681-4c15-b5da-ac37e45bd642_0-4-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/do-you-even-tech-bro/) [$1M Knee PadsThere’s a cost to be the boss -- and to bend the knee…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-374.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ndbb96k-3-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) ****December 2024** [Being for the Benefit of OpenAIOpenAI’s shift to a for-profit is messy, complicated, conflicted, and yet necessary![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-373.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-12-30-14.31.56---A-surreal-and-dramatic-scene-featuring-a-glowing--chaotic-sphere-of-swirling-energy--surrounded-by-fragmented-light-and-tendrils-of-lightning--suspend-3-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit/) [America Has Been AcquiredThis has felt less like an election and more like a deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-244.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_american_flag_with_money_falling_from_the_sky_in_a_s_84e2fa03-acf6-425d-881f-c46b0ee750e4_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/america-has-been-acquired/) [Apple Made the Right Call and a Stupid Decision with ‘Wolfs’The movie would have flopped in theaters but still…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-371.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wolfs-teaser-trailer-052924-22cd578455d94219999905f3ac2ac14e-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) [Intel Inside, Gelsinger OutsideDealt a bad hand by a board who wouldn’t give him enough time, Intel’s next leader needs full control to think different![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-372.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--61--2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside-gelsinger/) ****November 2024** [Forget the Fate of Chrome, Focus on the Fate of the BrowserIn debating what undoubtedly won’t happen, we’re looking past some key things that are -- and might…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-209.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-22-11.57.12---A-surreal-illustration-of-the-Google-Chrome-logo-being-squeezed--with-the-iconic-multicolored-sphere--red--green--yellow--and-blue--appearing-slightly-3-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) [Has Apple “Finally Cracked It”?Apple Television... now, that’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-207.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_television_set_made_by_apple_--v_6.1_e3f19e78-d764-46e5-9ef3-1338ea8c86a2_3-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/) [The Vision Pro Starts to Come Into FocusWe’re starting to cook with fire. I’m writing this about the Vision Pro, in the Vision Pro. Which I really only did for a post or two for the novelty of it right after the device’s initial release. But now I’m doing it because it’s actually a good way to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-208.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-15-23.12.50---A-distant--artistic-depiction-of-a-person-wearing-Apple-s-Vision-Pro-headset.-The-figure-is-barely-visible-and-intentionally-out-of-focus--creating-a--2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) [The Race for AI IndependenceAmazon, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all wish to break away from each other. As does OpenAI. With everyone needing to break free from NVIDIA.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-109.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) [Apple Admits the ObviousThere’s no topping the iPhone. As a business, there may never be.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-108.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_watercolor_painting_of_an_iPhone_ascending_to_heaven_--_ee0d6b40-b12d-46e5-ac2a-c5d59f2bda11_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) [PaidPalsElon Musk will battle with Trump eventually. As Peter Thiel can attest.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-74.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--43--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/) [Tim Apple, Engage!Apple seems poised to appeal to Donald Trump on their EU issues…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-61.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--40--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump-apple-eu/) [Can Barbie Break Netflix?More pressure is applied to Netflix’s anti-movie-theater stance…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-60.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--38-.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) [Do You Feel In Charge?On bending the knee to Donald Trump…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-29-at-10.18.56-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/) ****October 2024** [Apple Claps BackApple Intelligence is about to be an “every day” product, so it needs to be the “best”, fast![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_a_boxer_wearing_trunks_with_an_apple_logo_on_them_carto_d1282a22-2bde-4cee-bb90-8426ac340022_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/) [The War of the AI RosesMicrosoft and OpenAI increasingly make strange bedfellows…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/roses_banner.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) [Apple Becomes the PupilSnap and Meta teach Apple a lesson…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-86.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-01-14.13.29---A-close-up--detailed-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-human-eye--with-the-Apple-logo-centered-in-the-iris.-The-eye-should-be-expressive--with-a-reflect-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/) ****September 2024** [The Art of the OpenAI DealThinking through their numbers and those deal terms…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-81.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-30-11.45.00---A-cartoon-depiction-of-a-very-rich-man-wearing-a-fancy-suit--holding-a-wad-of-cash--and-handing-it-over-to-a-man-in-a-hoodie.-The-rich-man-looks-confi-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-openai-deal/) [Apple Knew Where the Puck Was Going, But Meta Skated ThereMeta’s “Orion” points to the vision of an Apple “Visor”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-84.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-29-22.46.08---A-sleek-and-futuristic-Apple-Vision-Pro-visor--designed-with-smooth-curves-and-a-minimalistic-aesthetic.-The-visor-features-a-seamless--glossy-black-f-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) [Should Microsoft Ride in to Save Intel?Apple’s old white knight can mount that steed again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--1--3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/) [Apple Should Sign Howard Stern and Launch ‘Podcasts+’They may not care about podcasting, but they \*do\* care about Services…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/09/Howard-Stern-Podcast-Apple.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/) ****August 2024** [ESPN’s Path to Be \*the\* Streaming Sports BundleIt’s not exactly “clear”, as Amazon may battle them along the way…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/08/ESPN-logo-living-room--3-.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) [Dear ZuckThis shit is embarrassing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/07/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/08/Mark-Zuckerberg-Chain-Pump-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) ****July 2024** [Never Tweet Your HeroesAlso maybe never tweet, period.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/07/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/DALL-E-Watercolor-Blue-Bird.webp)](https://spyglass.org/never-tweet-your-heroes/) [Backing the WinnerAttention VCs: going for Trump is no longer the contrarian bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/07/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/Blond-President-Counting-Money-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/vcs-for-trump/) [Almost All A.I. Investments are Going to ZeroSeemingly every investor I talk to these days is struggling with the same basic thing: they believe AI is going to be one of the most transformative technologies of the past several decades – and perhaps ever – but they have almost no idea how to invest in the space. And yet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/07/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/mgs22_a_market_crash_reaction_in_the_streets_old_time_photo_0ffb0dfa-f4e0-41b2-9df2-3bf5af5d21cb_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-investment-crash/) ****June 2024** [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=jpg&ixid=M3wxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDIzfHxhbGV4YXxlbnwwfHx8fDE3MTk0MjAyMTJ8MA&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=2000)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) [Can Microsoft Build ‘Apple Intelligence’ in Reverse?The countdown to ‘Microsoft Intelligence’ feels on. Sorry, OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-Popcorn-Robots-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-intelligence-apple/) [Did Apple Just End AI’s First Era?AI’s performance arms race yields to the product arms race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-2024-06-12-19.48.34---A-historical-photo-depicting-the-end-of-an-arms-race-with-a-dramatic--hopeful-scene.-In-the-foreground--old--rusting-weapons-and-artillery-are-being-a-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/) ****May 2024** [Won’t Get Fooled AgainSome decidedly unhelpful thoughts about investing in AI startups…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/The-Who-digital-avatars.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-startup-investment-guide/) ****April 2024** [The ‘Going Direct’ Bullshit DebateIt’s driven by AI and it’s all PR anyway…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/mgs22_two_male_podcasters_laughing_cartoon_93b1ecd5-30ba-4553-b03e-6e3d1a188dfb.png)](https://spyglass.org/going-direct-bullshit/) ### WWDC 2024 URL: https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2024/ Last updated: 2025-04-11T13:12:45.000Z ****Post-Keynote:** [Apple Set to be in the Room Where OpenAI HappensApple entering OpenAI’s boardroom is all sorts of interesting and wild!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/07/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/DALL-E-Apple-OpenAI-Illustration-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) [AI is the Feature, Apple Makes the ProductsBut also: what if Apple \*does\* need a ChatGPT-like product?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Screenshot-2024-06-25-at-10.41.07-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chatbot/) [Distribution Runs Thicker...Meta being in talks for ‘Apple Intelligence’ isn’t a huge shock![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/mgs22_Mark_Zuckerberg_and_Tim_Cook_shaking_hands_569a0d2a-47fa-4cc6-b0de-4340be695bdf_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai/) [The Vision Pro NoThe questions mount about the viability of Apple’s Next Big Thing™![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Apple-Vision-Pro-at-Sea-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-no/) [The Talk Show in 3D!This is exactly how the Vision Pro should be used…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-748.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0021-1-1.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/the-talk-show-in-3d/) [With AI, is Apple Getting the Vapors?Dancing with the ‘vaporware’ devil…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-17-iPhone-vapors-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) [The Talk Show in 3D!This is exactly how the Vision Pro should be used…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-749.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0021-1-2.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/the-talk-show-in-3d/) [Apple’s End Around Emoji‘Genmoji’ sound fun, and perhaps devilishly clever 😈![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Genmoji-creations-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-genmoji-emoji/) [Intelligence by Apple 📧One thing dominated WWDC…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-14-Apple-Glasses-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/intelligence-apple-wwdc/) [Apple Fails to Overreact to the AI RevolutionA podcast about WWDC…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/DALL-E-June-14-Epic-Scene-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-fails-to-overreact-to-ai/) [Total RecallMicrosoft can’t awaken from their security nightmare![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Total-Recall-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/total-recall-microsoft/) [Can Microsoft Build ‘Apple Intelligence’ in Reverse?The countdown to ‘Microsoft Intelligence’ feels on. Sorry, OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-Popcorn-Robots-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-intelligence-apple/) [“AI” is Apple’s “Voldemort”Don’t you say it, don’t you dare…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Voldemort-iPhone-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-apple-ai/) [ChatGPT is Free as in Beer for Apple, Right NowBut let’s see what happens if it proves popular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/ChatGPT-iOS-18-Screenshot-June-11-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-apple-money/) [Did Apple Just End AI’s First Era?AI’s performance arms race yields to the product arms race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-2024-06-12-19.48.34---A-historical-photo-depicting-the-end-of-an-arms-race-with-a-dramatic--hopeful-scene.-In-the-foreground--old--rusting-weapons-and-artillery-are-being-a-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/) [ChatGPT Will Test Apple’s FencesApple is opening itself up to a lot of gray area with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/DALL-E-Velociraptors-Jungle-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-gray-areas/) [Why So Siri-ous, IndeedHow new Siri parallels old Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/screen-shot-2011-10-16-at-3-20-12-pm-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) [The Voice Assistant Who Cried WolfCan Siri meet the moment this time?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Siri-Cartoon-Wolf-Scene-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) [6 Syllables, 60 Times“Apple Intelligence” dominated WWDC![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Screenshot-2024-06-11-at-10.57.41-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-apple-intelligence/) [Big Mad Over OpenAI and AppleElon Musk rides the ballistic boat down Apple’s river![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Apple-ChatGPT-integration-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/elon-big-mad-at-apple/) [Apple’s Artificial Approach to ‘Apple Intelligence’Apple is doing “AI” their way, in ways likely good and well, TBD![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-10-ChatGPT-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) ****Pre-Keynote:** [Hey Siri, Who Powers You Now?How Apple might handle their partnership with OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-10-Crayon-Drawing.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-openai-chatgpt-apple/) [As Apple AI Arrives, Will Wall Street Buy It? 📧‘Apple Intelligence’ is a good name, but it is a good narrative?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/mgs22_a_pencil_sketch_of_money_falling_on_wall_street_with_ro_c7997b22-4783-4013-b795-fbc738606a3a_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-wall-street/) [Jolting Siri Back to LifeDoes OpenAI hold the defibrillator?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/DALL-E-2024-06-07-09.58.05---A-futuristic-robot-holding-a-defibrillator-over-a-smartphone.-The-robot-should-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-blue-and-silver-colors--and-look-hum-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/jolting-siri-back-to-life/) [Apple Opts-In to OpenAI...and you’ll apparently have to as well![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-2024-06-05-15.10.05---A-watercolor-painting-of-an-iPhone-with-a-chatbot-interface-on-the-screen.-The-chatbot-should-have-a-friendly-and-engaging-design--with-colorful-speec-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-opt-in-openai/) [Is Siri About to Get a ChatGPT Brain Transplant?Or simply an augmentation? Or will Apple finally launch ‘Knowledge Navigator’?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-Brain-Illustration-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/) [Is a Ferret Burrowing Inside Siri?Putting some pieces together for Siri’s AI upgrade…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/Ferret-Drawing-2024-05-31-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai-ferret/) [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?A sense of tension between the two sides is inescapable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-surreal-image.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) [Apple Secures Their AI Security AngleUsing the ‘Secure Enclave’ to do AI in the cloud makes sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-May-30-Cloud-Security-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-cloud-security/) [Ready or Not, Here Apple AI ComesWill slow but not fully steady win the race?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-Apple-AI-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai/) [Apple’s Rightfully Boring AI PlayApple is playing catch up, but doesn’t need to sprint![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-May-27-iPhone-AI-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-boring-ai/) [Recall a Time Machine...Microsoft’s AI strategy should push Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-22-at-10.51.10-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-apple/) [A Crushing Blow 📧Apple needs to read the room in which they find themselves…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-10-at-7.29.27-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/crush-with-i-liner/) [Thunderstruck or Highway to Hell?Apple’s AI work nears its big reveal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/s-l1200-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-acdc-ai/) [The iPad Nano Air ProThoughts on Apple’s “Let Loose” iPad Event![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/mm.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipad-on-the-bart/) [Apple’s AI Strategy, At Your Service 📧The relative calm before the “AI, AI, AI, AI, AI” storm…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/AI-powered-iPad-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-ai-strategy/) [On Her Majesty’s Secret ServicesApple reports second quarter resultsApple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter ended March 30, 2024.Apple Newsroom Tim Cook did not bury the lede in the press release for Apple’s Q2 results: “Today Apple is reporting revenue of $90.8 billion for the March quarter, including![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-03-at-10.46.52-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) [Might Apple Rock and Pop OpenAI on Stage at WWDC?Let’s remember 15 years ago…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-27-at-8.21.49-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-iphone/) [Reading Between Apple’s Open Source AI Lines...Apple’s AI Play with M.G. Siegler What Apple might be up to in the AI space, the robot world, and how the business is doing overall... Big Technology Podcast Alex Kantrowitz Last week I went on Alex Kantrowitz’s Big Technology Podcast to talk all things Apple. But the majority![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/mgs22_an_AI_robot_build_by_Apple_8fa3ad3a-6830-40c8-8e84-14f73567ff08-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-llm/) [Apple Ferrets Out UI for AIFerret-UI may help Siri understand iOS app interfacesApple’s Ferret LLM could help allow Siri to understand the layout of apps in an iPhone display, potentially increasing the capabilities of Apple’s digital assistant.AppleInsiderMalcolm Owen This isn’t the first we’re hearing about “Ferret” – an AI project inside of Apple,![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/mgs22_a_ferret_using_an_iPhone_cartoon_105c5727-f47d-4a9d-affc-450311702222-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ferret-ai/) [Apple Odds & Ends Leading Up to WWDC AI DayApple Is Rebooting Its Search for a New Next Big ThingApple’s search for a bold new product category is back on, and it includes a foray into robots. Also: The company is preparing new iPads and accompanying accessories for May; the Vision Pro gets another Personas upgrade; and Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/Apple-Future-Products-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-odds-ends-leading-up-to-ai-day/) [Apple’s Social Force Ghost FeatureSpatial Personas Make Apple Vision Pro a Less Isolating ExperienceSpatial Persona, Apple Vision Pro’s support for up to five people to watch movies and TV shows, play augmented reality games, and collaborate on work, is rolling out today to make the spatial computing headset more a multi-user experience as![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/Spatial-Personas-Apple-Vision-Pro-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-spatial-persona/) [WWDC24AIAIAIAIAIAI Also, AIApple Hints at iOS 18 AI Announcements Coming at WWDC 2024Apple today announced official dates for the 35th annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which is set to begin on Monday, June 10\. In its…MacRumorsJuli Clover Happy WWDC Dates Announcement Day to those who celebrate.1 I joke, but there are![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/WWDC24-Announcement-June-10-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wwdc24-apple-ai/) [Outsourcing the aiPhone – At Least to Start...Apple Is in Talks to Let Google Gemini Power iPhone AI FeaturesApple Inc. is in talks to build Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone, according to people familiar with the situation, setting the stage for a blockbuster agreement that would shake up the AI industry.BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/iPhone-powered-by-Google-AI-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-ai-iphone/) [Can’t Innovate Anymore, My AI!Apple is right not to rush headlong into generative AIOne day the Vision Pro could exploit the technology to the fullThe EconomistThe Economist It feels like The Economist hits all the right points in this clapback on the current wave of Apple backlash: In short, with its market value down![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/Apple-Gener-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-cook/) [Lo! The AiPhone Nears...Apple Boosts Plans to Bring AI to iPhones Apple is quietly increasing its capabilities in artificial intelligence... Financial Times Michael Acton On one hand, all of this feels fairly obvious. Yes, Apple is planning to have AI be a part of the iPhone going forward – just like every company currently![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/01/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/01/iPhone-AI-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/aiphone/) ### From Afar URL: https://spyglass.org/column/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T12:37:46.000Z Writings and musings on various topics across tech, media, and more. Columns which are exclusive to paid members of [*The Inner Ring*](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) are outlined in **SEA GREEN** below. **You can join** [**here**](#/portal/signup) (or upgrade your account [here](#/portal/account/plans))! ****September 2026** [Where is the ‘Where I’ve Been’ Service?With Foursquare faded, it’s sort of wild that no one has stepped up, especially in our AI age…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1b66c31e-578b-4668-a193-53796666a7be.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_map_with_location_data_points_on_it_colorful_stylized_1_8cab3f17-c190-41aa-9ed6-5639971445aa_0-f9087e7f-3d84-4d0c-9c43-61f00063543d.png)](https://spyglass.org/where-ive-been-service/) [Meta Unveils the Vision Pro Apple Should Have ShippedMeta VR Glasses still seem far from perfect, but are at least a credible consumer product…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-fa54330a-ad8b-4bab-958b-004a086d1428.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-24-at-10.30.16---PM-9bcc4e79-a16a-4b1d-bf0b-ed5df6507337.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-vr-glasses-vision-pro/) [The M-pire Strikes BackMeta. Muse. Mark. Make a pretty killer Connect keynote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-cb7a1034-c15b-475a-89bc-a12065aa56ea.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-24--2026--01_08_25-PM-1-1-1874e7cc-9b29-4a04-b018-6fdac115abeb.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-connect-keynote/) [Soylent Googlebook is AndroidGoogle’s latest OS seems more about Android vs. Windows (and maybe Mac) than about some new AI PC play…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4f74b42d-cd70-4f71-8876-9b4636ffc6cd.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-22--2026--02_31_42-PM-2875a8ef-0389-4a31-ac7a-691b0d1eacee.png)](https://spyglass.org/googlebook-android/) [Why Didn’t Google Build Muse?Meta shipped the AI assistant that Google should have long ago…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-70fb546b-1e39-4436-9504-cddd12604d06.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-21--2026--02_58_19-PM-a3a4616a-f2f8-4995-82b1-237034927021.png)](https://spyglass.org/why-didnt-google-build-muse/) [The Apple NaturalJohn Ternus seems in command when talking about Apple products…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-440e403a-c143-4361-b9f8-f39277f245e4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-19--2026--04_32_37-PM-b4c4fb64-27b3-4335-bbfc-c30e104b6906.png)](https://spyglass.org/john-ternus-the-apple-natural/) [Meta’s Amusing MuseThey shipped a pretty killer AI assistant, can they keep people using it?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b9b62b0f-75f8-4e1a-a586-6c0564a72a06.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_2734-1-3f1d1dea-2621-4bf2-b0a5-ab3da8c2e252.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) [AI’s “No Fate” FutureIs AI about to end humanity? No one knows – most notably those proclaiming such things…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-85ef37c0-7385-47b8-b235-111c5f42d4a1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/T2jd-nofate-film-1-6c61a006-7c2b-48c3-a0f5-6868f00b1ed0.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/) [Apple Unveils the CEO HandoffThe first John Ternus keynote was a success, and there’s a clear path for them to get even better…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-241f4c42-979c-4a35-b029-8717c0c341a9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-11-at-1.16.32---PM-83a674e1-ee94-4c5f-aec0-022cc91c3e80.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/) [The Apple Event Smelled of a Rich MahoganySome thoughts on the iPhone Duo event…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-55aa16ee-541c-4d55-95c5-14faff668304.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-10-at-6.38.22---PM-6ca73f55-92c7-4c26-80c7-af6dec3638aa.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/) [You Cannot Unsee ‘You Can See Everything’What did I just watch?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-bc04a137-7b16-4a4c-b01e-5c2682dd88bc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-07-at-10.54.59---PM-1-fc0f66e6-377c-4868-ac02-85f37b50e1a9.png)](https://spyglass.org/you-can-see-everything-teaser/) [OpenAI’s AGI Eras TourWith ‘GPT-6 Astra’, AGI is here! Congrats, everyone!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-49047f38-625b-4a75-a821-28ee393c9cf5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-3--2026--11_43_50-PM-c8c20510-f84a-4c30-9951-ced590fd7143.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-2026/) [Can Someone Finally Architect Personal Assistant AI?The always promised product that always fails to deliver…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-fca0f171-e3e1-421f-aa2b-968b2e044fe4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-1--2026--08_40_25-PM-8a310c6d-353d-48e3-b1f7-10b4824a903f.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) ****August 2026** [Meta’s Poke on the WristWhy Meta is quitting their legal fight…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-0bc4f70f-a030-4159-b1cf-bedc02bfbde7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-27--2026--02_35_18-PM-792b16f9-40ad-4863-8da6-703dd8b0e8e4.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-poke-on-the-wrist/) [Begun, the Bundle Wars HaveThe battle to control streaming has shifted…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4bb08922-92c0-4a7d-8e86-8939c4719dc7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-25--2026--02_14_10-PM-41cdc436-48ad-415a-845d-794d214212a7.png)](https://spyglass.org/streaming-bundle-wars/) [Pushing or Pacing or Pulling Back From the AI Frontier?Is this a breather in AI development, or something more?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d0a312fe-790b-4d3e-a2cf-15119bb9dcb1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-19--2026--04_40_32-PM-789e17f0-576f-4093-a3d5-b5f48372af75.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) PAID [Apple’s EU App Store ArmisticeMight it point to a path forward for the US App Store too?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-019d8c65-8a6f-438b-b3ba-37ab520756d6.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_apple_logo_giving_a_peace_sign_--ar_43_--profile_frkb_2ceaa917-619b-45d5-9406-64f79c3dfe0c_3-1-2169171d-b1ff-4680-a500-274890e8ba04.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/) [Apple Versus the GlassholesLeveraging AirPods as their first true AI wearable should help ease Apple into a tricky market…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-98b6b4a6-02e7-46f7-91a3-d5446c76c29d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-18--2026--01_55_06-PM-fe1a5fbc-ed5f-4f58-a31c-26ca0dc39a30.png)](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) [You Gotta Fight For Your WriteBy pissing on their product, Anthropic pisses off everyone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d52821d2-9b30-4f94-a17d-94e1344adbff.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_bot_dressed_like_a_criminal_writing_and_laughing_artist_201ba912-ca6a-4cb5-8acf-cb403d6138ac_0-7226cf8d-c7b2-4cc4-8360-87cad14d03dc.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-ai-watermarks/) [Apple’s App Store Fees Live to Die Another Day...perhaps today. Almost certainly soon.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-06dd00f7-148a-4569-91af-fa1376d86386.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/images-1-e9cf08c7-b43a-442c-a72f-c80e2ab4293e.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/) [Meta’s Open Weight WhiplashZuck returns to his “open” AI arguments at an opportune time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-07cd038f-36ff-4f62-b9d2-ec70204b976b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-10--2026--09_49_51-PM-e3f23c7c-4eb7-4984-912d-2b61a7190fb9.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai-muse-glimmer/) [OpenAI’s Device All About the ‘O’?A voice-first AI device that requires no handle because it is a handle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-f84cdaa8-6b3d-41fd-8704-32a596ceca80.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-7--2026--03_05_14-PM-3f97a851-1c4e-4988-aba5-1c6a6f1bfb00.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ai-device/) [If You’re Not Paying for the Tokens...Meta has a new \*business\* model to drive down AI usage costs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-e0eab2ef-20e3-40a3-8d8d-2dac1b9f7020.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-6--2026--05_12_03-PM-37a84f04-b005-4c7f-bb03-0f50de326ae7.png)](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-tokens/) [Google’s Mind Is Now Less DeepHistoric talent is leaving DeepMind and Google, but that may ultimately \*help\* Google’s Gemini efforts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ffba14cb-f0a7-4d27-9ae9-63620c2c22c8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--11_13_17-PM-5690e6af-89bd-4ed0-a8df-3ee47f7ee222.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/) [Microsoft’s Many Aborted AI Takeoffs with CopilotCan Microsoft win by selling pick-your-own model and data sovereignty in an AI Austerity Era?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-17c8ce69-dd27-4fb1-82a2-3670ff996c69.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--03_14_53-PM-bee9a2c7-45bd-4867-9f3b-13ba17a59553.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/) PAID [OpenAI Shows Some ReceiptsBut will publishing these specific messages be enough to stop Apple’s real goal here: legal discovery?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-7b7b87da-6c24-4364-8f8a-58b502a6bad2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-4--2026--02_50_23-PM-88a9c7e6-ea03-416b-8d3c-fc618132fe2a.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/) [What if Anthropic is Right?What if we’re dangerously close to tripping into oblivion?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8fba5fdd-a912-45b0-8649-e60e9f2eae2b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-3--2026--09_26_21-PM-9ab2f935-1790-4dd4-a507-0fa81ab8863c.png)](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) PAID [Hollywood’s Brand New Day?Predictably awesome box office results also require caveats galore…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-804adf5e-85de-40f1-bca3-07a4e57a0585.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Spider-Man-Brand-New-Day-Destin-Daniel-Cretton-2026-Far-Out-Magazine-1-2b062cef-9543-41ac-8678-4be0b03371ae.webp)](https://spyglass.org/spider-man-box-office-record/) [Sticking the Landing‘The Bear’ did it, many others have not…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6335f9b6-72d2-41eb-bccd-ed293c920e97.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/TBR4_419_SMLS_250514_dg.mov.01_34_09_01.Still038_R-H-2025-ece2b7c8-0009-466e-b12a-512cd0f009a6.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-bear-ending/) ****July 2026** [The CapEx Two-StepMicrosoft’s masterful management of CapExpectations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6a722382-acfb-4e58-b4b3-ac4a2e9c9568.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-30--2026--01_59_19-PM-65125479-9d03-407a-8704-297e86e86a08.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-capex-two-step/) PAID [‘Apple as a Service’ At LastNot quite ‘iPhone Prime’ but also, almost!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-2cbbd55b-be2e-4882-b0bd-df7fc68d762e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-29-at-12.59.22---PM-e3bf3c6f-8115-4a10-bcb7-ad5f912aa8b5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/) [YouTube “Hackquires” PeacockA rather brilliant move, perhaps on both sides! Sorry, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-72963ada-d446-4d19-94f9-2bc685c802d9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-27--2026--11_16_41-PM-752bca98-9b85-449e-905e-2598d248df16.png)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/) [Thoughts on “Open” ModelsThe open letter on open weights feels familiar yet different…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-08d475a8-a631-42cd-b585-7bbec76b5cf1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-26--2026--10_26_35-PM-4a35e511-b4a7-46ba-a447-8468badf0189.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) [How to Lose AI in 10 DaysOpen vs. Closed. US vs. China. Big Tech vs. Big AI. Oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-5f0de688-3257-45bf-8285-5bc077d2a034.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-26--2026--02_53_19-PM-208edfcb-0671-49ed-b717-738d10a2dabc.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) [OpenAI Makes ChatGPT ChatGPT AgainStill far from perfect, but less of a complete and utter mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-34402fc9-3396-4b30-9b67-15f427b0b158.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-17-at-7.51.51---AM-2-71a8f270-e336-4ba7-80c2-92c33c97c306.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/) [Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube Faster Than...YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-77b0ccc3-53df-45ee-bda5-04650a0a18d2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-16--2026--07_40_34-PM-ca20d682-285c-494b-8f61-606d4fbe714c.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) [OpenAI’s Chat RobotWhat can Apple say about a device designed for vocal AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-5c728b02-0f0f-46e7-902d-a81aa458b0d4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--03_41_09-PM-1-f8b6ae45-b580-43df-ae74-5b2124afb062.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) [Reading Between the Apple v. OpenAI Lawsuit LinesThis is clearly about more than one or two people…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c971fe87-0a20-42a8-b4db-8dfca3be4433.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-13-at-5.48.46---PM-e78c00b5-fb6d-4f9a-a8cf-773a29766b30.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/) [Apple Goes for OpenAI’s JugularIf their lawsuit is successful, that ChatGPT device may be no more…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ede755b3-b034-4058-9221-657df710b2a9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/glenn-close-fatal-attraction-knife-c54244df-8e6b-4756-8252-de23ea213ae8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) [The ChatGPT “Super App” Sort of Super SucksEven if it’s ultimately the right call, the new Mac app is a mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c35af7d9-9ba2-49c6-bb62-5d49da2559f2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.41.00---PM-68c06644-3454-4c44-b710-dc9b701db524.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/) [Your AI Margin is Meta’s OpportunityMark Zuckerberg comes out swinging with an AI business model and low-low prices![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-a9b6006b-856a-4d97-8f0a-da302225761f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-9--2026--07_36_37-PM-3e588d2b-b12c-4515-8979-e554bb7abc13.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) [The First True AI ChatbotAs in, actually chatting. As in, with voice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-fd68abb7-d23f-4ae4-b05b-dc822f6e4c7f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-9--2026--12_36_26-PM-2316d08d-a112-4488-81b5-f767aeffb5de.png)](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) [There Is No PhoneOpenAI is not building a phone. Amazon is not building a phone. And now SpaceX is not building a phone. Are you sensing a trend? The trend is that basically the entire tech industry is rumored to once again be building their own smartphones. But they’re all denying it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3d10f3d1-bb39-4fa8-a83d-465d3fef2623.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/l-intro-1726070817-a4914032-87d5-48b5-ab1b-5267add1e844.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) THE INNER RING [The Most Profitable Company Is... Samsung?The chip business pushes them past Apple – and even NVIDIA!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-2e66b65d-95a7-411a-bfc6-c7470977daf5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-7--2026--10_22_11-AM-89fb8958-5d00-4683-a3c0-9fc6600cffbd.png)](https://spyglass.org/samsung-profit/) [Netflix Needs a New ShakeupOutflanked by YouTube, they need a true focus on engagement…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-0ef933f1-68c6-4b47-9c7f-b616e508e670.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-6--2026--11_15_25-AM-1-d92400b0-f038-44dd-b706-d39da38bd791.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) [Meta’s Inevitable CloudTheir need to diversify the business meets the AI build out concerns…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-a16802f9-53d6-4a3c-923c-c1c833256691.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-2--2026--02_16_08-PM-b672c646-3a4d-4388-9108-f338c5efd360.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) ****June 2026** [Meta, Be BetterGetting banned on WhatsApp is both bullshit and a real problem.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-7cf7a7f2-eb9a-4a67-8d8f-de9803c9cdfb.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0775-copy-764f2cd2-fc3a-4b5f-abc4-84acec5d2c5e.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/whatsapp-ban/) [Comcast is Unbundling... ComcastThe company can’t stop cutting itself in two, but who is buying? Netflix? SpaceX?!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-5556a60d-976c-4d83-99be-e76182f2b2f4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_hinyfihinyfihiny-8f79fb7d-70a0-4101-afde-31ec787ab176.png)](https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/) [Natural Born BloggersRest in peace, Om Malik.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-04e7fd67-f855-4bed-95b8-5ea747d8c874.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-28--2026--08_00_15-PM-aacdb8b8-5ca5-4721-b8d7-be2bf85cccad.png)](https://spyglass.org/om/) [The Market Shifts AppleApple used to bend suppliers to their will. The world has changed.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-d05aceba-58bf-404e-88a4-41ba6350dd49.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-25--2026--11_40_24-AM-99e8dfff-56d5-4ade-9b66-b16a5820dc1d.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) THE INNER RING [Amazon MeddlesThoughts on Amazon MGM bailing on their OpenAI movie…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-69654287-2971-4ec9-b6db-b84160e7112b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-21--2026--08_59_47-PM-9208ad20-5eb3-4d0b-98a3-db4720cf2d9c.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-kills-openai-movie/) [About Those “Hackquisitions”...The first crop certainly haven’t panned out…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-b08090e0-4748-49c4-a7c4-38d56c592502.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-19--2026--04_15_50-PM-acaa6869-49b9-40e3-a084-19a6337ca22b.png)](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/) [Can ‘Specs’ Snap Snap’s Losing Streak?Sadly, no. Not at these prices. But they had little choice…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-e03993c1-1663-453f-9144-e8d9a673cb58.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2f525e8a51b1011f76c008801ff2ffe2.3804x1902-8748e386-8cfc-4ad6-a44d-a90b029bf20b.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/) [Regulation for Thee, Not for MeWhy did the Trump administration go nuclear on Anthropic – again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-c72e0f9b-3750-4df3-a63f-85b0bbc4b9f0.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-15--2026--10_53_00-AM-1-4d0a3ba5-cdcd-410a-9df1-bfa798d831d5.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) The Inner RING [Anthropic’s Heel TurnIt’s perhaps more of an Anakin Skywalker situation…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-3699ab51-020b-46c0-a26f-86856b2e0369.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/starwars3_movie_screencaps.com_14193-570d6b53-354f-4e13-ae0e-c01ba403f85b.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) [The AI Overkill EraAs AI shifts agentic and expensive, might we see more hybrid local/cloud arrangements?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-7b6b6d00-3934-4f2d-8b69-ee33042087b7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-12--2026--01_51_50-PM-a5952151-20f4-4f57-bcc2-a62df1d7fb99.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/) [The Resuscitation of XboxAfter a few months of good will, here comes the hard calls…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-2d4a6919-e801-4da3-b914-37208d2916c8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-11--2026--07_07_09-PM-a821d4b6-d1c5-4f46-8976-8ec5557f35af.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-resuscitation-of-xbox/) [Apple Wins Consumer AI By DefaultAs the iPhone becomes the first true AI device…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-d61615e9-dbcc-4e31-84ee-b7b68b22d1a2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-06-09-at-2.16.49---PM-2b88ddb2-a99c-411a-9ac3-609e5003dc90.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) [Dreams of a Siri That Doesn’t SuckSome hope (and fears) about the Apple Intelligence do-over…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-88c9f38e-7085-4451-b89b-36b4195ba522.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-8--2026--12_37_04-PM-4b457698-8f19-4491-97c0-1a8e9cf46dd4.png)](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/) [“Chat is dead.”As OpenAI morphs ChatGPT, there are opportunities and risks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-0c5c5e8c-89f1-40fc-a539-25dcadfe8118.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-7--2026--03_56_32-PM-1-9bf657b9-7bb4-4b4f-b746-5773b2b0e219.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) [They’re Building AI PCs, Will Users Come?Developers will, but at what cost? And can NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google push Apple aside there?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-dbeb35be-d5a4-4fe5-9df8-991726c816b7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2026--02_20_35-PM-241e3afd-85f4-4035-a884-dcffd386413f.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) INNER RING [The Summer of ‘Super Apps’Microsoft races to get the one Copilot to rule them all out the door…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-4246c817-e554-4c83-b559-2441cf50f5c2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-2--2026--10_14_44-AM-1-21675b6c-d1d4-406d-9d56-03784cf5f68c.png)](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/) [YouTube Beats AI to Disrupting Hollywood‘Backrooms’ and ‘Obsession’ have pried the filmmaking gates open, AI may blow the bloody doors off…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-79161da8-135b-43f2-befe-e38bf7a6a136.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/backrooms-main-8b31f4b2-75af-4fdb-926a-fd8487b7741b.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/) ****May 2026** [Microsoft Seeks a Surface RT & Copilot+ PC Do-Over with NVIDIACan the main AI chip maker ensure Windows owns the ‘AI PC’?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/HJf6tj2bgAAoGf7.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) [Meta’s Premium Branding MessMeta Plus Meta One Plus Premium & Essential & Advanced…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-27--2026--09_46_22-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/) [Let There Be LuceLoveFrom’s Ferrari design is predictably divisive…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-26-at-11.33.16---AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-luce-design/) [The Great AI IPO RaceSpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all angling…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--05_30_32-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [NVIDIA’s Profit CrownJensen Huang just took the throne from Apple, at least in the US…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--10_49_43-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/) [Google ‘I’ Hold the ‘O’Some thoughts on the Google I/O 2026 keynote…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-05-20-at-1.09.52---PM-e158c28d3c7554e4d23f5c29543e0e98c4487ef99f50c20eb8e191307d099e13.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) [Lessons from the LudditesParallels with the Age of AI…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/cf0bf04d-e724-4604-8737-40a48fce67d3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [OpenAI Picks An Apple FightWith Apple expanding beyond ChatGPT, here’s the finger-pointing over what could have been if Siri didn’t suck…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-15--2026--11_29_41-AM-3e8ab0f1a3a9aa6ccc55ed485c1952bafa3c7f435b25eecc35a1dbe48e06ea1e.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/) [An Actual AI PCSome initial thoughts on ‘Googlebook’…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/gb2-9bc8bbec431ad38270f3c2eb2c170407b9d5695b34eebb8a8d29d3fda81a2d0c.png)](https://spyglass.org/googlebook/) [Amazon Phones HomeDo Panos Panay’s verbal gymnastics stick the landing?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2026--12_02_30-PM-6f39f854b1c89f9f01dc2fe2abf1bf2c2b9a4e39b4fe43e0b4d05a9509452446.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) [Take Me Down to the “Amateur City”Satya Nadella sums up so much with one quote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-12--2026--12_59_20-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/) [EyePodsAirPods with cameras aren’t to take pictures, but to let Siri “see”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-8--2026--10_54_53-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) [The Case for Apple + DisneyAlso the case against what is still a fun, but unlikely deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-7--2026--02_38_45-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Anthropic Boosts SpaceX into the Neocloud OrbitA very clear, surprisingly clean win/win deal, it seems…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-6.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2026--10_56_58-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/) [The iPhone’s BlackBerry MomentAm I crazy to think the ‘iPhone Ultra’ will be great for typing?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-05-05-at-10.07.03---AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/) [The Age of the “Super App” — Again and Again and AgainMeta. X. Coinbase. Airbnb. Uber. Snap. Spotify. ChatGPT. Even Disney. They’re all trying – and constantly failing – with this strategy…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-3--2026--10_21_10-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) [Apple’s Binary BetAs Big Tech keeps ramping CapEx, Apple stays the same…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-1--2026--10_10_34-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) ****April 2026** [Stargate Powers Some GaslightsOpenAI would sure like us to believe there’s nothing to see here…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-30--2026--11_10_28-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [John Ternus’ Magic ShowApple’s new CEO must find a new trick and pull off ‘the prestige’…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-28--2026--12_02_52-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) [Microsoft Claws Away ‘The Clause’ as OpenAI Claws Back Some IndependenceOpenAI and Microsoft update the agreement they just updated…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-27--2026--08_36_20-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) [AI in the SkySpaceX + xAI + Xitter + Cursor + Mistral + Tesla![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23--2026--02_20_37-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [A Cook’s TourTim Cook steps down as CEO of Apple as John Ternus steps up…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-21--2026--10_29_52-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) [Meta’s Recurring Apple NightmareWith smartglasses, Apple is once again entering Meta’s turf. Wielding a familiar weapon: the iPhone…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-13--2026--01_49_19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [‘Project Hail Mary’ as a Sign of the TimesWhat if technology isn’t going to destroy the future, but might save it?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/aaa.png)](https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/) [BYOAIMight the AI you use at home be the one you use at work?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-9--2026--12_53_55-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/) [The Casual Catastrophe of AICan the sheer scale of compute fix the world before it breaks it?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--12_57_18-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) [A Conversion to AppleHow a PC kid became an Apple fanatic over the course of the company’s 50 years…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-5--2026--12_08_25-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-conversion-to-apple/) [OpenAI’s Soft Power PlayWill TBPN help them change the conversation around AI?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/071a55f3-1f09-4ba9-8726-5d70998a045f.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/) ****March 2026** [The NFL Will Bleed Cable Dry Before Tech Takes Over TVAmazon, Apple, ESPN, Netflix, and YouTube will clearly eventually control the NFL rights…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1231.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0c7dac29-011614-NFL-Pereira-G4-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Big TechbaccoThe growing risk that these companies are viewed as a cancer…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1230.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4e72b216-6792-4ec9-97b0-01144b5576f3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/) [So Long, SoraAn OpenAI Code Red? More like a Code Dead…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1229.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-7.52.28---PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) [Apple Realizes There Should Be An App For ThatSiri Edition![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1228.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-25--2026--11_41_03-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) [Before MacBook Neo, There Was iBook27 years ago, Steve Jobs celebrated Apple completing “the quadrant”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1222.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-24-at-2.18.51---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/) [Meta Keeps MissingEncryption? No. Crypto? No. VR? No. Open models? No. AI? Not so far. Agents? Nothing yet. AR? We’ll see…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1221.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-23--2026--07_50_55-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Microsoft Got Sloppy with WindowsAt perhaps the exact wrong moment with AI and the MacBook Neo…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1204.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/microslop.png)](https://spyglass.org/microslop-windows/) [Amazon’s Novel Approach to a Newfangled AI Device: a Phone?It’s perhaps not as crazy as it sounds. Just don’t say “Fire Phone”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1203.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_amazon_phone_cartoon_--ar_169_--v_7_5cdfc1b8-e548-4ad5-9f11-fbabbe5ceec5_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) [OpenAI’s OdysseyCan they get down to business while maintaining ChatGPT’s lead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1202.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4512f360-b5f4-425a-be59-71cd20bc3d5f_3840x2208-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Actually, MacBook Neo Is For MeI didn’t expect to, but I’m keeping it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1201.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_8197-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) [Microsoft Adds More Copilots to Help Copilot CopilotTheir consumer and commercial AI efforts clearly haven’t worked…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1200.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-18--2026--10_17_41-AM-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Jensen in the ArenaThe ‘Token King’ enters the Age of Inference…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1184.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-17--2026--02_01_33-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) [Maybe You Can’t Just Throw Money at AIHow and why Meta AI and xAI have failed in AI thus far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1183.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_qj7bpiqj7bpiqj7b-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [‘iPhone Fold’ as ‘iPad Mini’ FoldedBut, importantly, running a new iOS, not iPadOS…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1182.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-13--2026--10_33_39-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/) [Fixing the Windows in a Broken HomeTheatrical windows are back in place. Hopefully more open this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1169.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DJDvny-VwAAN1mb.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) [Meta (or Microsoft) Steals a StargateWhat choosing Texas (or not) says about the state of data centers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1168.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-12-at-12.55.21---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/back-to-abilene/) [OpenAI is Busy Both Bundling and UnbundlingWith Sora coming to ChatGPT…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1167.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_36i4i636i4i636i4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) [Apple’s Hail Mary, Anthropic’s SaviorIt sounds crazy, but hear me out…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1166.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-10--2026--03_18_19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The LobsterIt feels like we’ve seen the OpenClaw movie before, many times…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1156.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_lobster_trying_to_code_on_many_computers_16x9_cart_ab0fc01a-cc76-42ea-b779-4242de7977ed_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) [When Knees Buckle, then Bend, then BreakOn Anthropic’s war with the Department of War…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1155.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/438356-theon-greyjoy-reek-played-alfie-allen-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The Death of the 30% CutGoogle ends the Play Store insanity, putting the pressure on Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1154.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-5--2026--04_26_54-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [MacBook Neo: WhoaApple’s newest Mac is priced to move…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1087.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-5.51.36---PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) [There Are Signs...Private Credit, CapEx, Interest Rates, War, and AI Disruption – oh my!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1086.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-4--2026--01_51_09-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1085.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [Increasingly, Big Tech Owns Big AIThe latest OpenAI and Anthropic rounds drill it home…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1084.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-2--2026--12_56_38-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** ****February 2026** [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1083.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) [Apple is About to Have \*Two\* Toaster/Fridge HybridsWill the quotes (and complexity) come back to bite the touchscreen MacBook?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1082.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-26--2026--04_39_34-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/touchscreen-macbook-toaster-fridge/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Tasty AIIs AI “taste” a quixotic task?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1077.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-25--2026--03_23_08-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/) [ExboxMicrosoft will do one last Xbox push, but there’s probably not a longer path forward – unless AI saves the day; not in the way you think!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1076.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-24--2026--12_08_46-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Can OpenAI Build Alexa Before Amazon Can Build ChatGPT?Actually, their impending partnership may start to make more sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1075.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-22--2026--02_34_52-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1074.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Little? Yellow? Different?A non-cutting-edge, but fun MacBook…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1073.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_sugcqqsugcqqsugc.png)](https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/) [DeepSeek 2: The MovieThe Seedance “End of Hollywood” likely points to the paths forward…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1072.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-02-16-at-11.10.18---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/) [I Am the Great Glassholio!Things are going well for Ray-Ban Metas... time to meddle!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1071.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/6f4285ce-c913-49ce-88b6-6b1c1679f3fb.png)](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) [Apple Cannot Be SiriousWhat’s worse: that Apple can’t fix Siri, or that they can’t stop the leaks about how they can’t fix Siri?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1070.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-12--2026--02_08_30-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) [Love It If We Made ItAI will disrupt work. We will adapt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1021.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_54_36-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) [YouTube TV Finally Kills CableTheir smaller bundles wound the beast, the sports bundle ends it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1020.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-10--2026--05_22_16-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-kills-cable/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [It’s The Thought That CountsThe diminished state of thinking could be decimated by AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1019.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--10_58_44-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) [Sometimes It’s Too SlowWith data centers in space. “For shure”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1018.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--07_55_54-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Wall Street Starts to Turn on AIConcerns about CapEx and Claude Cowork…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-978.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-5--2026--10_32_51-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Space Twitter!Elon Musk tries to merge the AI Race into the Space Race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-977.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-3--2026--02_32_32-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [My 2026 iPhone HomescreenAs we gear up for the true ‘aiPhone’ and ‘iPhone Fold’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-969.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_7345-2.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/) [NVIDIA and the Case of the Missing $100B OpenAI InvestmentThe massive deal touted by both OpenAI and NVIDIA as a landmark one now looks a lot different – unless you ask Jensen Huang…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-968.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-1--2026--03_51_29-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) ****January 2026** [Where the Wild Bots AreShould we be concerned or amused by Moltbook, a social network where AI can talk amongst itself? Maybe both?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-967.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-31--2026--11_40_03-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/) [Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the CowsMeta and Apple have opposite strategies around AI right now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-966.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-30--2026--01_54_51-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) [The Anyone-But-Google AI AllianceBig Tech’s billions into OpenAI signal something…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-965.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-29--2026--04_50_36-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Apple’s Dark KnightDecoding Tim Cook’s seemingly stunningly stupid strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-964.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_tim_cook_with_a_batman_mask_on_16x9_illustration_--a_4ed451c6-72a9-428d-b92e-aabdbd99ad49_1--1--1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [DeepSoughtA year after DeepSeek’s “Sputnik Moment”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-963.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-27--2026--07_04_50-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/) [Aside From That, Mr. Cook, What Did You Think of the Movie?Let them eat popcorn…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-962.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-26--2026--11_45_33-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/) [Apple’s Twin SunsJohn Ternus takes on design while Craig Federighi takes on AI as Apple prepares for a new CEO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-933.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/tatooine-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) [Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even AppleWith competent AI incoming, Apple considers an AI Pin…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-930.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-22--2026--01_00_45-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [An Actual AiPhoneGemini? Check. Chatbot? Check. But might we need an app?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-929.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_su7fiusu7fiusu7f.png)](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) [Make TVs Great AgainWith Sony exiting the market, we need Apple making television sets…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-928.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_television_set_beautiful_mounted_on_a_wall_with_a__a545e8bf-7e2f-4f88-9595-d06d03846c84_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-television/) [Hollywood Cuts Off Its Future to Spite Its PresentNetflix is obviously the best path forward for Warner Bros, you fools…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-927.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/RIP_20241028_01742_R-H-2026.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) [My Boy’s Wicked Smart on AIBen Affleck makes some good, coherent points about... AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-926.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-01-18-at-10.34.35---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ben-affleck-on-ai/) [Will OpenAI Ads Click with Users?And will users click on them?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-925.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_n3rihyn3rihyn3ri-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) [Netflix’s Hard 45With Ted Sarandos’ 45-day theatrical commit for movies, he’s aiming to win the box office, Hollywood, and the Warner Bros deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-924.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--03_36_53-PM-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) [The Vision Pro Slam DunkTheir immersive NBA stream highlights how close Apple is to making Vision Pro content work…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-923.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-14--2026--04_02_04-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/) [“Hello, Computer.”With AI and an appetite for new hardware, vocal computing seems primed to take off, for real this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-887.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a55090e3-ec2d-4f98-835e-0e819fcf17bd.png)](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) [And the Winner of Apple’s Great AI Bakeoff is... GoogleGemini catches them up quickly in AI while giving them flexibility…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-888.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--05_45_28-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-886.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The Incredible Valuation Heights of the OpenAI “Constellations”Now past $700B in aggregate. Add in OpenAI itself and we’re at $1.5T.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-869.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-9--2026--03_46_18-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) [Gmail’s First Lunge Towards Stabbing Email to Death with AIGive me ‘AI Inbox’ yesterday Google…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-868.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-01-08-at-2.30.48---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/) [Microsoft’s Would-Have-Been $30B “Hackquisition” of OpenAILooking back on a mega deal that never happened, but kicked off the “hackquistion” boom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-867.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-7--2026--11_36_36-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/) [Stranger Things Have Happened Than Netflix’s Theatrical Success‘Stranger Things’ makes a killing in movie theaters, duh…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-866.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-2--2026--03_46_17-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) [****2025 Columns Here**](https://spyglass.org/column-2025/) [****2024 Columns Here**](https://spyglass.org/column-2024/) ### Inklings URL: https://spyglass.org/newsletter/ Last updated: 2026-09-25T14:50:21.000Z A newsletter sent weekly to subscribers featuring links with commentary and quick analysis as well as a roundup of recent *Spyglass* posts. Find dispatches below. ****Inklings** is a newsletter sent weekly featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ****September 2026** [Inklings #027 📧Meta’s Vision Pro • Copilot’s ‘Super App’ • Streaming Ads • DoJ Helps Apple • Dark ‘Artificial’ Trailer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-7dfa55bf-b0fb-4ca6-aa04-736bef6deb35.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-25--2026--03_23_52-PM-1-726e631d-1e7d-4cf8-b569-cee53484beae.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-vision-pro-copilots-super-app-streaming-ads-doj-helps-apple/) Friday • September 25, 2026 [Inklings #026 📧Meta’s Camera-Less Glasses • Apple’s Surveillance • Claude Unifies • Prime Bundles • Dario Writes • Bond, Jack Bond![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4f94ac05-8e57-4649-97e0-12f7ab6cf828.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-18--2026--05_51_09-PM-1-02256c9e-1d0e-48d4-aec4-5786ba17714b.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-camera-less-glasses-apples-surveillance-claude-unifies-prime-bundles-dario-writes-bond-jack-bond/) Friday • September 18, 2026 [Inklings #025 📧App Store Succession • Cybercab Launch • Azure Reporting • No Google Breakup • Snap’s Specs Situation![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-fe24ccfc-5d6d-4e19-a0bf-f0816b00b219.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-4--2026--05_50_55-PM-1-f2aca10e-2bba-41ac-b8bc-f2ebc1f1bd75.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-app-store-succession-cybercab-launch-azure-reporting-no-google-breakup-snaps-specs-situation/) Friday • September 4, 2026 ****August 2026** [Inklings #024 📧NVIDIA’s Profit Crown • NVIDIA’s Hugging Face Deal • Hugging Face’s Duck Robot • Meta’s ‘OpenClaw for Normies’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b5ac2354-c153-4bd5-951e-aedff113d864.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_Tim_Cook_arms_in_the_air_celebration_artsy_illustration_a_e7d91068-44dd-40c6-aec6-c9ced29a2c15_3-1-979b3287-d4c4-4037-b954-5e45f51ae7f7.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-profit-crown-nvidias-hugging-face-deal-hugging-faces-robot-metas-openclaw/) Friday • August 28, 2026 [Inklings #023 📧Newfangled ‘Hackquisitions’ • Epic v. Apple • Meta v. States • OpenAI v. Apple • ‘Stripe of AI’ • Vision Pro Pickle![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-18a0753b-db27-4c8c-bfbc-7127cc49acd0.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_summer_email_as_a_ink_blot_--v_8.2_07a5d039-609d-498a-bbc0-2631cef821be_1-1-b7c61a09-6bad-42fe-a6d7-aab2fbb9e0b4.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-newfangled-hackquisitions-epic-v-apple-meta-v-states-openai-v-apple-stripe-of-ai-vision-pro-pickle/) Friday • August 21, 2026 ****June 2026** [Inklings #022 📧Amazon’s OpenAI Movie • Meta Glasses • Microsoft’s AI Narrative Pivot • Google Falling Behind in AI, Again?! • OpenAI’s Ads Pitch • Expensive Consoles![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-1268814a-935a-405c-965a-b0bf27ae281c.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-06-23-at-6.03.27---PM-4-ffbc056b-b222-4171-a75b-af1e144f87f2.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/) Tuesday • June 23, 2026 [Inklings #021 📧“Hackquisitions” Revisited • Amazon Kills the OpenAI Movie • Netflix is TV • Snap Spins Off AI • Trump Mocks His Big Tech Sycophants![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-633ab528-bab9-4cc3-89f7-5c7ee559cedd.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-19--2026--07_41_40-PM-1-4c859790-5969-40ae-a28f-4c24d4691a56.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-hackquisitions-revisited-amazon-kills-the-openai-movie-netflix-is-tv-snap-spins-off-ai-trump-mocks-his-big-tech-sycophants/) Friday • June 19, 2026 [Inklings #020 📧Snap’s Specs • Apple’s Price Increases • Epic’s “Open” Plea • Siri’s Rebuild • AirPods with Cameras In Late 2027 • OpenAI Steals Noam Shazeer • SpaceX’s “Cheap” $60B Deal • Anthropic’s Breach... of Trust • Meta’s Ongoing Turmoil![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-df5df460-fecb-48cb-89a6-80cf2607f914.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-06-17-at-5.11.45---PM-copy-1-5dc33ddd-b2ce-4229-adbd-8dcc2f0ca613.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/) Thursday • June 18, 2026 [Inklings #019 📧As the Anthropic Turns • Nadella’s Frontier • UK Social Media Ban • Fox Buys Roku • Spielberg Returns • Why No More Zuck for Eisenberg • SpaceX’s Colossal Data Center Problem • Inside Meta’s “Gulag”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-e4244e31-45d2-4125-8d67-696000a6438a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/7142c7a7-50a7-4e8e-ab43-08b84d27fe56-1-c9225d8b-edec-4494-991f-913445abd2d4.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/) Monday • June 15, 2026 [Inklings #018 📧AI Overkill • Anthropic Walks Back • Siri AI Just Works • Elon’s Diamond Hands • Apple TV is HBO • OpenAI’s RSI Clause • Siri is Not DTF![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-55956b9d-10bf-48df-a3c7-21d7f16987fa.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-06-12-at-10.32.14---AM-3-a0b693ac-3537-4b16-ad2c-1de45acc01a6.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/) Friday • June 12, 2026 [Inklings #017 📧Social Reckoning • Apple’s Models on NVIDIA Chips • No Siri AI for EU • ‘Masters’ Box Office • OpenAI’s IPO • OpenAI’s ‘Third Phase’ • A Stargate Reborn in Ohio![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-edf251fb-8ebe-40e4-8756-13bc23d3707b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/social-reckoning-2-1-893b1533-5ecd-4f84-891d-3c04e87c01fb.webp)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/) Wednesday • June 10, 2026 [Inklings #016 📧S&P 500 Maintains Rules • Surface NVIDIA RTX Hands-On • Microsoft’s ‘Project Solara’ • MLB Salary Cap • Big Tech Renewing Their IPOs • Government Stakes in Big AI • Anthropic’s AI Development Pause • Google’s Opt-Out of AI Crawl![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-4f898ea6-1e80-403e-82a5-49daf69c3a90.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-7--2026--08_32_08-PM-2-d7621030-5440-4bb1-94f0-9a126d7061d5.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-s-p-500-maintains-rules-surface-nvidia-rtx-hands-on-microsofts-project-solara-mlb-salary-cap-big-tech-renewing-their-ipos-government-stakes-in-big-ai-anthropics-ai-development-/) Sunday • June 7, 2026 [Inklings #015 📧NVIDIA’s CPUs • Anthropic’s IPO • Streaming Bundles • Dickovers • Google Home Speaker • Apple’s Smart Glasses in 2027 • Intel’s New AI GPU • Surface Laptop Ultra![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-06-02-at-2.02.45---PM-1-e4dbae3193a007bdf24df25ac134ed8320af4cec5eb79a0cb4463b840dac0dad.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/) Tuesday • June 2, 2026 ****May 2026** [Inklings #014 📧Google Being Behind in AI Coding • OpenAI Going After Mom & Pop Ads • Samsung’s Bonus Situation • Baby Yoda Slightly Scores • Hollywood’s Coming YouTube ‘Obsession’ • Apple’s Local AI Dreams • More![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/-1x-1-2-80358596a087542a17bade30eaf212a7d25aef175dc6da6c95a74cf45c673e85.webp)](https://spyglass.org/oliver/) Thursday • May 28, 2026 [Inklings #013 📧The Great AI IPO Race • OpenAI’s IPO Hedge • IMAX Explores a Sale • Can Baby Yoda Save Star Wars? • NVIDIA’s Record Profits • SpaceX’s ‘Fast Entry’ to the Market • More…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-22--2026--02_36_53-PM-1-5ded82ec1912afd1a47ffd8a9bc67de24bb2dbadc90a7a12a39492bbe899620c.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/) Friday • May 22, 2026 [Inklings #012 📧AI Luddites • An Elon/OpenAI Verdict • Big Tech’s Emissary Movement • Apple’s ‘Dinged Can’ Strategy • Siri Heads Back to “Beta” • The Great SF AI Divide![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-2219219944-2-7155010f8bd5599b218a84972f463d45d3af9d197f653564e9d39c52396858bc.webp)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-luddites-an-elon-openai-verdict-big-techs-emissary-movement-apples-dinged-can-strategy-siri-heads-back-to-beta-the-great-sf-ai-divide/) Monday • May 18, 2026 [Inklings #011 📧OpenAI v. Apple • Closing of Elon v. OpenAI • Fall of the Twitter Clones • Apple + Intel Details • Anthropic at $900B+ • Gold Casting Bond![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-15.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-15--2026--11_20_54-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/) Friday • May 15, 2026 [Inklings #010 📧Googlebook • Amazon Adds Alexa • AI as a Filmmaking Tool • Is Microsoft Now Undervalued? • Who Is Winning Elon v. OpenAI? • OpenAI’s $7B Man With His Own AI Lab![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-13.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-14--2026--03_30_12-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googlebook-amazon-adds-alexa-ai-as-a-filmmaking-tool-is-microsoft-now-undervalued-who-is-winning-elon-v-openai-openais-7b-man-with-his-own-ai-lab/) Thursday • May 14, 2026 [Inklings #009 📧Microsoft’s Early OpenAI Dealings • Apple & Intel Have a Deal • Barnes & Noble Comeback • RIP Ted Turner • Elon Musk’s ‘Colossus’ Strategy • OpenAI’s Next Microsoft Fight![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-11--2026--03_51_16-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-microsofts-early-openai-dealings-apple-intel-have-a-deal-barnes-noble-comeback-rip-ted-turner-elon-musks-colossus-strategy-openais-next-microsoft-fight/) Monday • May 11, 2026 [Inklings #008 📧The AI Pandemic • Samsung Hits $1T • Supreme Court Rejects Apple • Anthropic/SpaceX • AirPods with Cameras • OpenAI’s Aim to Own Vocal Computing • Google Gunning for OpenClaw • Anthropic’s Colossal Compromise![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-8--2026--05_56_54-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/) Friday • May 8, 2026 [Inklings #007 📧Meta’s OpenClaw Killer • Xbox Vibe Shift • Apple’s Choose Your Own AI • AMC Live Concerts![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2026--05_34_13-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/) Wednesday • May 6, 2026 [Inklings #006 📧Amazon’s FedEx and UPS Killer • Can Intel Land the iPhone? • Is Apple Killing the Vision Pro? • The End of Ask.com • OpenAI’s Journals v. Elon’s Texts • OpenAI’s $29B Man • A Growing Gap Between Frontier vs. “Open” AI?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/db-tesla-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/) Tuesday • May 5, 2026 [Inklings #005 📧Big Tech Earnings • New Disney Boss Tested • Siri Camera Mode • The AI Button • Netflix’s Narnia to Theaters![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/thumbnail--1--2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-big-tech-earnings-new-disney-boss-tested-siri-camera-mode-the-ai-button-netflixs-narnia-to-theaters/) Friday • May 1, 2026 ****April 2026** [Inklings #004 📧OpenAI Missing Their Numbers • Amazon’s ‘Quick’ Superagent • Cost-Per-Click AI Ads • Stargate Shift • Meta’s Reverse Hackquisition • Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Deal![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-29--2026--07_48_06-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/) Wednesday • April 29, 2026 [Inklings #003 📧Google’s Anthropic Money • OpenAiPhone? • XChat • Elon vs. OpenAI • China Blocks Manus![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a56c62cb-07ba-4d09-9b06-6c28d27be35a-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/) Monday • April 27, 2026 [Inklings #002 📧Cohere + Aleph • GPT 5.5 • DeepSeek V4 • Intel’s Bounce Back • Making Xbox Great Again • OpenClaw Struggles • Big Tech Layoffs![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-24--2026--08_04_10-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/) Friday • April 24, 2026 [Inklings #001 📧Cursor + SpaceX • Xitter Custom Timelines • ChatGPT Images 2.0 • Tim Cook’s “Textbook Succession”• OpenAI’s “DeployCo” • Amazon’s $25B Anthropic Investment • Google Behind in AI Coding![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-22--2026--02_59_39-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/) Wednesday • April 22, 2026 [Jensen Roars 📧Apple’s New Siri UI • Jensen on the Dwarkesh Pod • Airbnb Hotels • OpenAI Shedding Executives • An Anthropic/Washington Detente • Does Salesforce Have an AI Problem?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3646a024-b1a8-4054-9483-f6fd73f4a25e-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dossier-005-jensen-roars/) Monday • April 20, 2026 [An Empty Notebook 📧Gemini Mac App • Reed Hastings Post Netflix • Hunt for Gollum’s Cast • James Bond Actor • Can Snap Cut Its Way To Success? • Cleaning Up the Xbox Game Pass • xAI Gets Cursor to Cover Some Costs![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-17--2026--10_53_10-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/) Friday • April 17, 2026 [The AI Battle For You Face 📧OpenAI’s Path to $100B Ad Biz • DoJ/Old Media vs. NFL/Big Tech • MacBook Neo Lighting Fires • Project Hail Mary’s Future • Amazon’s Not So Crazy CapEx • OpenAI Sweating Anthropic • Meta’s Max Headroom Mark Zuckerberg • The ‘iPhone Fold’ as the ‘iPhone Ultra’![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-13--2026--08_42_24-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/) Monday • April 13, 2026 [Bring Your Own Wolverine 📧AI at Work vs. Home • The Hunt for Satoshi • Mythos In Your Inbox • The Box Office Is “Back” • Meta’s New AI • OpenAI’s Defensiveness • Stargate Stumbles • Anthropic’s Compute Crunch![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-10--2026--02_20_54-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/) Friday • April 10, 2026 [Go Blue 📧OpenAI’s “Super App” • OpenAI’s Leadership Shuffle • YouTube Leans Back • Outlook in Space • Apple at 50 • OpenAI’s Internal IPO Tension • OpenAI’s Industrial Policy • Cursor’s Claude Code & Codex Competitor![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-6--2026--09_05_12-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/) Monday • April 6, 2026 [The Netflix Football LeagueAmazon + Globalstar? • OpenAI’s Round • Microsoft’s AI Pickle • Microsoft’s New AI Models • SpaceX IPO • Can He-Man?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-14.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F650731c0-e1aa-47b8-853c-c4d8a3471788_2752x1536-6.png)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-netflix-football-league?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • April 2, 2026 ****March 2026** [The Fall in the House of SoraFall of Sora • ChatGPT Apps • xAI Founders • Project Hail Box Office • OpenAI/Anthropic Beef • 2076 iPhone • Chromebooks in School Backlash![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-7.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F9a10d969-2de3-4605-9408-a6c69db2eafd_1024x1536.png)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-fall-in-the-house-of-sora?ref=spyglass.org) Monday • March 30, 2026 [Techlash 2: The ReturnApple Opens Siri • Meta Churns • DeepMind History • RIP Mac Pro • Colbert’s ‘Lord of the Rings’ • Siri App • RIP Sora![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-6.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fa4362df4-6752-4f73-9f0e-315ff02cc80f_1024x1536.png)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/techlash-2-the-return?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • March 27, 2026 [Metaverse, Chrous, MetaverseGemini’s Comeback • AI Choice Screens • Apple Maps Ads • Prediction Market Tests • Microsoft’s Ai2 Bet • ARM Chips • Windows Slop • Steve Jobs on the iBook • VW Scout![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-5.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F03d01acf-b76b-442b-81a0-49cd4ecd85b3_1440x810.jpeg)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/metaverse-chrous-metaverse?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • March 24, 2026 [Hail HailThrowing Money at AI • Microsoft’s Many Copilots • OpenAI’s Odyssey • Super ChatGPT • Super Gemini • Jensen Selling • TikTok Payola • No TriFold • Dune 3!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-4.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F7a03e140-c4fd-4d5d-a0c9-f519e98b7e59_1280x720.webp)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/hail-hail?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • March 20, 2026 [Apple’s Half-Trillion Dollar DealAnthropic’s Knees • Hollywood’s Windows • Microsoft’s Stargate • Netflix Buys Ben Affleck’s AI • Everyone Comes for OpenClaw • Apple at 50![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-3.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F1b6724d8-893f-4787-80c0-fbb00d1c0998_1536x1024.png)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/apples-half-trillion-dollar-deal?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • March 13, 2026 [Swan SongsMarket Volatility • Big Tech/Big AI • End of the 30% Cut • Paramount + HBO • Netflix’s Walk • Tech Pubs Plummet • Apple’s Head in Google’s Cloud • More…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-15.png)Afterthoughts...M.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F7d86ffda-6788-4893-8e39-768b8b8472f9_1536x1024-1.png)](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/swan-songs?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • March 6, 2026 ****February 2026** [A Deal of Paramount ImportanceNetflix Walks • AI Taste • Apple’s Touchscreen MacBook • OpenAI’s Round • NVIDIA’s Earnings • AI Panic • Apple, Netflix, and F1 • D’Amaro’s Disney![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-1.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F27eb7c83-b673-4fcd-8e0f-251b3e38d268_2752x1536.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/a-deal-of-paramount-importance?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • February 27, 2026 [AIboxThe End of Xbox • NVIDIA’s CPU Move • Meta’s AMD Deal • Apple’s Visual AI • Perplexity + Samsung • Mac Mini Made in the USA • Paramount’s New WBD Bid • Deep Red iPhones![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F59490b90-a308-4178-98b2-cdefeae2963f-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fac0370e2-ab9f-41cb-8744-05a3e4872c33_1456x816.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/aibox?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • February 24, 2026 [The Awkward Key to AI Going Forward: the iPhoneOpenAI’s Device • Xbox Shakeup • Perplexity’s Pivot • NVIDIA’s OpenAI Investment • OpenAI’s Financials • WaPo Shitshow • Seedance v. Hollywood • Meta v. Reality • More…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-11.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fedc0e108-0de7-4723-aa12-38749c28e752_1456x816.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/the-awkward-key-to-ai-going-forward?ref=spyglass.org) Sunday • February 22, 2026 [Mind the AISynthetic Thinking • AI Work • Illicit Distillation • Moon City • xAI Co-Founders Quitting • M&A Back • IBM’s HR Play • YouTube on Vision Pro • & More…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-10.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F93b7a736-09b8-48be-9e10-a51fcbae879f_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/mind-the-ai?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • February 13, 2026 [AI JittersWall Street Turns • SpaceX + xAI • Anthropic’s Ads • New Disney CEO • Microsoft’s AI Problems • Spotify’s Physical Book Deal • Moltbook • NVIDIA/OpenAI • Amazon/OpenAI • 2026 iPhone Apps • Walmart $1T![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-9.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fa941327d-eeac-4a05-91de-cd2a3a1f339d_2272x1518.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/ai-jitters?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • February 6, 2026 ****January 2026** [How Many Thumbs Up?Cook’s Movie Screening • Apple’s Dark Knight Strategy • Anti-Google AI Alliance • Meta & Apple’s Opposite AI Strategies • Voice AI Q&A • Elon’s Empire • Amazon’s Big OpenAI Bet • Amazon’s Melania Bet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-8.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fbcbbd48c-726d-41b0-8a29-924305050abc_1456x816.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/how-many-thumbs-up?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • January 30, 2026 [Double Sunrise at AppleApple’s AI and Design Fixers • TikTok “US” • Meta’s Subversive AI Playbook • Apple’s Banana Stand • Sarandos on TV • Who Is This Guy?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-7.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F1a2d09a3-4a6e-4f1a-bb05-b8b5679bb7dc_2752x1536.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/double-sunrise-at-apple?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • January 23, 2026 [Talk to the Pin or Pen or PendantAI Hardware • The AiPhone • Oscar Nominations • Apple’s Internal AI Apps • Meta’s First Superintelligent Models • Reed Hastings at the Movies • He-Man!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-6.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F646922da-bb6d-4256-b60c-5af17adff824_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/talk-to-the-pin-or-pen-or-pendant?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • January 22, 2026 [The BensNetflix vs. Hollywood • AI vs. Hollywood • OpenAI’s Scaling • Sony + Netflix • RIP VR’s Future of Work • Thinking Machines Tick Tock • More on OpenAI Ads • Davos • KPop![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-5.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F259998b4-6aeb-45b4-9761-dfc5dddfbcd1_3000x1692.jpeg)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/the-bens?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • January 21, 2026 [Apple May Have Their Television After All...Vision Pro’s NBA Game • Thinking Machines Drama • Wikipedia Turns 25 • The Apple Card Fiasco • Meta Beyond Metaverse • Big Tech CapEx Perspectives • OpenAI/Cerebras Deal![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-4.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F09e1373d-7b7d-4e55-936f-aa8e1befc1cb_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/apple-may-have-their-television-after?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • January 15, 2026 [OK ComputerVocal Computing’s Moment • Meta’s Compute Infra • Meta’s VR Ending • Apple’s SaaSy Move • Is Claude Cowork For Real? • Is Quantum Computing For Real? There Is No Nintendo![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-3.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fcdb07c9b-818d-4bba-9af2-283beecf91d0_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/ok-computer?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • January 14, 2026 [AI’s Pitchman ProblemAI has a perception problem.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-2.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fe7d4c3e1-4b77-4efe-a44e-2ec8823db4f6_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/ais-pitchman-problem?ref=spyglass.org) Monday • January 12, 2026 [Incredible AI Startup Valuations in ContextThe OpenAI Diaspora Aggregate Value • Is Tim Cook Tired? • xAI’s Big Burn • OpenAI’s Stock Pool • ‘Star Wars’ Steady Hand • iOS 26 Penetration![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-1.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F750618d2-8187-4f66-8030-1abc19148ca2_2752x1536.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/incredible-ai-startup-valuations?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • January 9, 2026 [AI Sets Its Sights on EmailGoogle Sics Gemini on Gmail • Apple Card’s New Money Man • ChatGPT Health • OpenAI’s 2026 Roadmap • Samsung’s Wild Profit Ride • Elon on Bezos • Team USA’s Kits![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F85b973a0-1c1b-4fba-bbc4-5be4c7fd1603-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F318d9822-ad4b-4a7c-9d40-8cedb7894c40_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/ai-sets-its-sights-on-email?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • January 8, 2026 [Far OutA ‘Hackquisition’ That Wasn’t • New James Bond? • Microsoft Branding At It Again • NVIDIA at CES • WBD v. Paramount Round 8 • New Lucasfilm Jedi • Dude, XPS is Back • Building AI Robots Is Hard![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F8927e6f2-a552-441b-a294-ece9ffe04599-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)From AfarM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F5faf7891-1f82-4b02-8666-0688a70fb499_1536x1024.png)](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/far-out?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • January 7, 2026 [Signal: Decidedly Not Live from CES... 📧Nadella Blogs • ChatGPT App Store • Hollywood’s 2025 • Vision Pro Cuts • Versant Lives! • Labubu Tries to Endure • Old TV![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-845.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-5--2026--10_35_01-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/decidedly-not-live-from-ces/) Monday • January 5, 2026 [****2025 Newsletters**](https://spyglass.org/newsletter-2025/) [****2024 Newsletters**](https://spyglass.org/newsletter-2024/) ### Apple's AI Saga URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/ Last updated: 2026-03-09T15:00:26.000Z Seeing as we're now over a year into Apple's ongoing saga to get Apple Intelligence out the door, and given the latest fiasco with Siri, I figured I would try to compile all my posts on the matter in one place – for myself if nothing else! (In reverse chronological order.) ****February 2026** [Can OpenAI Build Alexa Before Amazon Can Build ChatGPT?Actually, their impending partnership may start to make more sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1150.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-22--2026--02_34_52-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1149.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) [Apple Cannot Be SiriousWhat’s worse: that Apple can’t fix Siri, or that they can’t stop the leaks about how they can’t fix Siri?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1148.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-12--2026--02_08_30-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) [Wall Street Starts to Turn on AIConcerns about CapEx and Claude Cowork…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1147.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-5--2026--10_32_51-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) [My 2026 iPhone HomescreenAs we gear up for the true ‘aiPhone’ and ‘iPhone Fold’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1146.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_7345-2-2.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/) ****January 2026** [Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the CowsMeta and Apple have opposite strategies around AI right now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1145.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-30--2026--01_54_51-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) [Apple’s Twin SunsJohn Ternus takes on design while Craig Federighi takes on AI as Apple prepares for a new CEO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1144.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/tatooine-2-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) [Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even AppleWith competent AI incoming, Apple considers an AI Pin…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1143.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-22--2026--01_00_45-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) [An Actual AiPhoneGemini? Check. Chatbot? Check. But might we need an app?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1142.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_su7fiusu7fiusu7f-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) [“Hello, Computer.”With AI and an appetite for new hardware, vocal computing seems primed to take off, for real this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1141.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a55090e3-ec2d-4f98-835e-0e819fcf17bd-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) [And the Winner of Apple’s Great AI Bakeoff is... GoogleGemini catches them up quickly in AI while giving them flexibility…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1140.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--05_45_28-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1139.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) ****December 2025** [10 Big Predictions for 2026Here we are again, the final day of the year. Just like last year, I thought I’d use the countdown to 2026 to jot down some predictions. Last year, I thought most of my predictions wouldn’t happen, but actually many ended up being at least partially correct, so I’ll go![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1138.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-31--2025--11_53_25-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) [2025 Predictions RevisitedAs we head into 2026, a look back at 2025... 🔮![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1137.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-29--2025--03_43_22-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/) [Apple’s ‘Pluribus’ SlopAs season one ends, it’s unclear if Apple shared AI slop or if they’re just sloppy, or both, or neither. What if they’re allegorically subversive?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1136.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G85WZn6XMAEUsPq-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/) [The AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1135.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-18--2025--10_29_01-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) [Conflicts & Interests in AI\*Of course\* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1134.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--12_46_38-PM-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product. The![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1133.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) [Apple TurnoverThe recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1132.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_apple_turnover_made_with_logos_of_Apple_--ar_169_--v_7_d5ee4b42-f799-4cf3-a50c-d0cca412973b_0-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) [The AI Snow Globe is Shaken2025 is ending with “Code Reds”, “retirements”, new models, worries about old models, new chips, worries about old chips, crushed earnings, stock shorting, oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1131.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_xl1t7xl1t7xl1t7x-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) ****November 2025** [Big Tech’s Wild Market Cap Ride3 different leaders of the 6 this year, Google soon to be a 4th?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1130.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-25--2025--05_36_04-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) [‘Pluribus’ as AI AllegoryNot sure that was the intent, but it feels like a commentary on LLMs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1129.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/pluribus-button-1759334370303-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/) [Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIAHow do you become a $5T company? It’s simple, really…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1128.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_hammer_made_of_cash_illustration_16x9_--ar_169_--v_1fb7603b-a302-4795-aada-42a5ddf1dfd6_1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) [Collect Them All (AI Edition)An ongoing list of the tangled web of Big Tech investments in Big AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1127.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_gauntlet_showcasing_infinity_stones_cartoon_16_63064780-aac9-46e1-b3d6-091769114cdd_3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) [Let Tim CookMight Tim Cook retire as CEO of Apple in early 2026? There are signs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1126.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_tim_cook_holding_an_apple_illustration_16x9_image__4bdbfe46-63ba-402b-825d-922e5ed54bd0_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) [OpenAI’s Local AI Device DreamsWhat if their would-be AI device doesn’t require a connection…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1125.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-7--2025--01_53_46-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) [Apple Finally Agrees to Fix SiriThey’ll swap Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1124.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-6--2025--01_36_23-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) ****October 2025** [Apple’s AI Brain BleedMeta keeps poaching Apple’s AI talent and that’s a real problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-452.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) [OpenAI’s Digital Assistant DeviceObvious challenges aside, it’s starting to come into focus…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-451.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) ****September 2025** [Apple’s Flight to SafetyA refocusing on design and hardware might be a good sign…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-379.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_The_Apple_logo_surrounded_by_beautiful_design_flourish__054afdb5-c6ea-488c-a7e0-995ca28aa3b7_0-2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) [Apple and Google Are So BackThe famous frenemies seems awfully aligned again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-378.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-7.19.11---PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) ****August 2025** [AGI is BananasA conversation about Google, Apple, AI, AGI, and everything in between…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-376.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_banana_make_of_electricity_--v_7_0578597d-fc0b-49f1-89dd-b5a1b6fb8a2c_3-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-bananas/) [Apple Weighs the Voting MachineWill they do a big AI deal? Should they?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-375.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_with_arms_pulling_the_lever_on_a_slot_ma_80ef1e75-aeae-455d-8164-161acd9fe9e8_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) [Apple’s Great AI Bake OffGemini enters the tent alongside Claude, ChatGPT, and Apple’s own models to see who can bake the best Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-175.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_a_bunch_of_cakes_being_baked_by_robots_--v_7_621fd0b0-e446-427b-8976-bbf74ff99c4e_2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-176.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) [Apple Backed Into an AI CornerTim Cook tries to rally the troops. Can he?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-174.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) ****July 2025** [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-96.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [Apple is Ripe...for change, as their COO steps down. Can they avoid rot?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-95.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_hanging_from_a_branch_--v_7_396e200c-cd62-4a94-b174-c3bdcb194ab2_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) ****June 2025** [Hey Siri, Time for that LobotomyAs predicted, Apple may outsource Siri to ChatGPT (or Claude)!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1372.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ad98f15-b90d-4490-9630-f46e158cd894-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) [Whittling Down Apple’s Big AI M&A OptionsI’ll bring my list of five down to four…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1373.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) [Apple Ponders PerplexityA partnership is probably more likely, but they have to at least think about buying here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1374.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-20-at-11.39.09---PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) [While ‘iOS 26’ Will Ship in 2025, ‘Siri 26’ Will Ship in 2026The “coming year” really means “next year”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1375.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Siri_talking_to_someone_--ar_169_--v_7_025f5580-340f-4f7e-b5c0-5bee5bc1f734_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-2026/) [Apple’s UI Event in the Age of AIBreaking down WWDC 25 and the myriad issues around Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1376.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_Apple_logo_encased_in_liquid_glass_--ar_169_--v_7_23df5dd6-fc6c-4efe-a256-67b7eebff3e4_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) [Liquid GlasslightingThere are no issues with AI within Apple, why do you ask?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1377.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_gaslight_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--v_7_bda60a1d-710e-4aa9-8ff5-44da25df4173_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) [Apple Tries to Hide AI Under Liquid GlassWWDC 25 certainly wasn’t six out of five stars…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1378.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-10-at-2.18.36---PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) [Reasoning About the Reasoning of Reasoning ModelsDid Apple just nuke the AI industry? Lol, no.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1145.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robotic_brain_as_the_top_of_a_nuclear_fall_out_cloud__9766c054-f4e2-4f0a-9a8e-d6214680f844_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/have-these-researchers-used-siri/) [Siri Doomed Apple in AI, Just Like Alexa Did with AmazonTheir previous “success” in assistants became albatrosses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1126.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_albatross_around_the_neck_of_a_robot_--ar_21_--v_7_17d33bc8-4e5a-4bb7-9bb2-8a1530dc4a28_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) [A Samsung Deal Makes An Apple One More Complex for PerplexityBut it still makes a ton of sense for the AI company, obviously…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1133.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2025--01_33_24-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/) [“We’ve gone sideways.”Laurene Powell Jobs on OpenAI/IO’s iPhone antidote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1132.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/jljs-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) ****May 2025** [Apple Eyes 2026 for Smart GlassesThey’re clearly hustling to meet Meta, Google, and now OpenAI/Jony Ive in the AI device market. But will their AI be ready?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1130.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-22--2025--11_07_00-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1129.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [Google Slams on the AI GasDoes it leave Apple in the dust?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1128.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2025--12_27_01-PM-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) [Apple Set to Show Some AI Skin, But Not the Full MontyGiving developers on-device AI access makes sense, and buys Apple some time to get their larger models up to speed…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1127.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_iPhone_with_AI_--ar_21_--profile_p6bo5ty_--v_7_9afcad53-aadc-4db9-9d99-148ecfc414d4_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-core-ai/) [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-967.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) [Just JonyA couple takeaways from Jony Ive’s Stripe Sessions chat![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-968.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.28.57-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/just-jony/) [Good Vibrations Between Apple & AnthropicIt makes sense for the two to partner on “vibe coding” – might we hear more at WWDC?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-969.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_wrapped_in_computer_code_--ar_21_--profi_8cb3a1c1-4037-4da3-8a6a-6a4d6deb5244_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-anthropic-xcode-coding/) [Apple’s Low Energy EarningsI guess boring is good in this environment, but that was rough…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-872.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-2--2025--12_15_04-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-q2-2025-earnings/) ****April 2025** [Failure Has Many Fathers at Apple Right NowThe dysfunction seemingly runs deep at the most valuable company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-759.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_upside_down_hovering_above_a_flame_--ar__2efb455e-65dc-4a24-9739-b0d3441898e7_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) ****March 2025** [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-698.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) [The Vibe Shift Amongst Apple DevelopersUser-facing AI is still a debate, developer-facing AI is not. And Apple might be in \*real\* trouble here without some changes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-699.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_an_apple_logo_surrounded_by_code_--ar_21_--profile_b4d956eb-d089-4a3b-a594-065e22b6acac_2-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/vibe-coding-apple-devs/) [Five “Game Change” AI Deals for AppleA few ideas for how they might (but likely won’t) change the AI equations, fast…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-676.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-25-10.01.19---A-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-person-joyfully-throwing-cash-at-a-large--glowing-Apple-Inc.-logo.-The-person-is-mid-motion-with-arms-extended--and--2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) [The Siri ShuffleMike Rockwell steps in to clean up Apple’s AI product mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-576.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/jj-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) [Siri’s Quixotic Swim to HawaiiApple went for it with AI and came up a couple thousand miles short…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-577.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_swimmer_in_the_ocean_swimming_to_hawaii_--ar_169_--v__ec91d29e-866e-4778-bda1-6f33d7334578_0-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/) [Apple Joins the NavyThey need to find the pirate mentality again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-578.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_pirate_flag_flying_on_a_ship_--ar_21_--profile_zegoym_52d79c06-a6a1-4932-988d-ae839a3fa21c_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) [Apple’s New Vision for SoftwareiOS, iPadOS, and macOS may be on the verge of a visionOS makeover…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-579.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-11-at-1.17.03-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-ios/) [Did Apple Flub an AI Feature, Or Are They Blowing the AI Moment?Sometimes a delay is just a delay. Sometimes it’s not…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-580.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_holding_an_apple_logo_in_its_hand_--ar_21_--pro_39c1bfb8-fe36-49dd-91e0-b60997633729_3-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) [Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPTNot forever, but for now. Until a new, better Siri is actually ready to roll — which may be \*years\* away…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-581.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_with_an_apple_logo_and_a_scientist_opening_up_i_dbf83ee0-18c0-48e0-8074-7e3f2a9c4212_2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) ****February 2025** [The AI Will Come Out TomorrowAlexa and Siri struggle to get out the door in the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-582.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-16-15.50.37---A-group-of-frustrated-people-yelling-at-an-Amazon-Echo-device-in-a-modern-living-room.-Their-facial-expressions-show-anger-and-confusion--with-one-per-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) ****January 2025** [Apple’s Record-Breaking Quarter Was SO BORINGApple wins as the AI tortoise in a field of scared hares -- for now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-585.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_falling_all_around_the_apple_logo_--ar_21_--profi_1cc2a89d-6b1e-4d97-9c2d-395334b1df1c_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-earnings-q1-2025/) [Should Apple Switch Off Siri?In our Age of AI, Siri continues to embarrass Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-583.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--74--7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) ****December 2024** [10 Big Predictions for 2025One of which may actually happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-584.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_2025_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_ac39eaaa-8b05-4b54-9f96-14739040d5b4_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) [Tim Cook’s ClockA great interview quietly reveals quite a bit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-586.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_tim_cook_looking_at_his_apple_watch_painting_--ar_43_--_1f3ca9a4-e2a8-4c20-ae19-234a3104b0a8_1-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) ****November 2024** [Wake Up, AppleWith AI, the cadence has changed. Shipping in two years won’t cut it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-587.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--7--1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) [OpenAI’s Potentially Massive iOS ChatGPT UpsellAs the integration nears, we see how the (business) model will work…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-588.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-10.10.13-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ios-chatgpt-upgrade/) ****October 2024** [Apple Boosts Their IntelligenceApple Intelligence in iOS 18.2 beta is fitter, happier, more productive…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-589.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/464303558_1067092391724338_6160290953966144153_n-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ios-18-2/) [Apple Claps BackApple Intelligence is about to be an “every day” product, so it needs to be the “best”, fast![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-590.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_boxer_wearing_trunks_with_an_apple_logo_on_them_carto_d1282a22-2bde-4cee-bb90-8426ac340022_3-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/) ****September 2024** [Apple Balks and Walks from OpenAI InvestmentIt was an obvious investment that was always potentially problematic; add more chaos into the mix and... poof!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-591.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_bank_vault_closing_with_an_apple_logo_on_it_--ar_43_-_86788933-3ade-46b1-9d1c-ce9d3272ae28_3-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/) [An AI Device with LoveFrom OpenAIOr: ‘When Jony Met Sam’ -- Also: ‘A San Francisco LoveLetter’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-592.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_beautifully_design_AI-powered_pendant_--ar_43_--v_6.1_e21c8b0b-e49c-47c9-b4aa-fbfa1f68b35d_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) [Over-Optimized AppleApple got too good at doing what Steve Jobs did…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-593.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_machine_with_an_apple_logo_running_on_oil_--ar_43_--v_7da97cf7-5eef-482c-835e-b375f255d4db_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/) [People Aren’t Buying the Apple Intelligence Hype, LiterallyIt’s just one report, but it points to the marketing risk/challenge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-594.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-09-16-at-10.50.56-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-16-ai-sales/) [Apple Needs an Editor 2Repeating Steve Jobs’ old points of view is not an actual point of view![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-595.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_An_Apple_Logo_surrounded_by_clutter_--ar_43_--v_6.1_bd61a08c-f11b-43fb-847f-0d54718e1338_2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) [Apple’s Tricky Touting of a More Muted Intelligence‘Apple Intelligence’ may help sell new iPhones, but shouldn’t really, yet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-596.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a660ed65-2e30-4310-a273-f52ea71ab2bb-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-slippery-intelligence/) [Apple Needs an EditorApple events should be TV-length, not movie-length…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-597.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-09-09-at-10.24.16-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-event-too-long/) [The Slow Build to the aiPhoneMore delays for Apple’s AI rollout…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-598.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPhone-painting-man-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/aiphone-hold-the-ai/) ****August 2024** [Apple and OpenAI Now Have a Way for Money to Change HandsApple’s investment in OpenAI would effectively be paying for ChatGPT![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-599.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1800s-Money-Exchange-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/) [\*Of Course\* Apple is Investing in OpenAIThe writing was on the wall -- also it was on Spyglass…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-600.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-giving-money-to-OpenAI-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) [Apple To Ramp Up iPhone RAM... Next YearUndoubtedly to help bolster the AI push…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-601.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Aug-28-iPhone-arms-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/) [A Tale of Two AiPhonesGoogle and Apple are building the same thing in pretty opposite ways![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-602.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-08-20-at-8.24.52-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-aiphone/) [Apple’s AI-Driven ‘FacePod’ ThingA perhaps risky project could be Apple’s first real robotics step?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-603.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-iPad-Illustration-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/) [Apple Does What It Does, Without Too Much AI SpendWhich Wall Street will appreciate. We’ll see about iPhone 16 sales…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-604.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Apple-AI-Logo-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-q3-2024/) ****July 2024** [Move Slow and Make Sure Everything WorksApple’s approach to their AI roll-out is in stark contrast to others…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-605.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-6.24.33-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-is-here-kinda/) [No Massive NVIDIA Clusters for Apple?Google TPUs is all you need?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-606.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-07-30-16.15.31---A-detailed-view-of-a-rack-of-NVIDIA-chips-in-a-server-warehouse.-The-server-rack-is-filled-with-rows-of-green-NVIDIA-GPU-cards--each-with-the-distinct-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) [Springtime for Siri in PeripheryAs expected, “New Siri” in ‘Apple Intelligence’ will be a 2025 thing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-607.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Siri-in-Spring-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/springtime-2025-siri/) [Apple Set to be in the Room Where OpenAI HappensApple entering OpenAI’s boardroom is all sorts of interesting and wild!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-608.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-July-8-Alexander-Hamilton-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) [As AI Plants Itself Within Apple...Services, Sales, Solo Loops, & Scrutiny![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-609.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Beautiful-Apple-Logo.png)](https://spyglass.org/as-ai-plants-itself-within-apple/) ****June 2024** [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-610.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1-4)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) [AI is the Feature, Apple Makes the ProductsBut also: what if Apple \*does\* need a ChatGPT-like product?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-611.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-06-25-at-10.41.07-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chatbot/) [Distribution Runs Thicker...Meta in talks for ‘Apple Intelligence’ wouldn’t be a huge shock. Maybe.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-612.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Mark_Zuckerberg_and_Tim_Cook_shaking_hands_569a0d2a-47fa-4cc6-b0de-4340be695bdf_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai/) [The Talk Show in 3D!This is exactly how the Vision Pro should be used…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-750.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0021-1-3.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/the-talk-show-in-3d/) [With AI, is Apple Getting the Vapors?Dancing with the ‘vaporware’ devil…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-613.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-17-iPhone-vapors-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) [Apple’s End Around Emoji‘Genmoji’ sound fun, and perhaps devilishly clever 😈![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-614.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Genmoji-creations-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-genmoji-emoji/) [Intelligence by Apple 📧One thing dominated WWDC…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-615.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-14-Apple-Glasses-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/intelligence-apple-wwdc/) [Apple Fails to Overreact to the AI RevolutionA podcast about WWDC…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-616.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-14-Epic-Scene-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-fails-to-overreact-to-ai/) [Can Microsoft Build ‘Apple Intelligence’ in Reverse?The countdown to ‘Microsoft Intelligence’ feels on. Sorry, OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-617.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Popcorn-Robots-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-intelligence-apple/) [“AI” is Apple’s “Voldemort”Don’t you say it, don’t you dare…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-618.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Voldemort-iPhone-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-apple-ai/) [ChatGPT is Free as in Beer for Apple, Right NowBut let’s see what happens if it proves popular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-619.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-iOS-18-Screenshot-June-11-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-apple-money/) [Did Apple Just End AI’s First Era?AI’s performance arms race yields to the product arms race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-620.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-06-12-19.48.34---A-historical-photo-depicting-the-end-of-an-arms-race-with-a-dramatic--hopeful-scene.-In-the-foreground--old--rusting-weapons-and-artillery-are-being-a-3-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/) [ChatGPT Will Test Apple’s FencesApple is opening itself up to a lot of gray area with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-621.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Velociraptors-Jungle-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-gray-areas/) [Why So Siri-ous, IndeedHow new Siri parallels old Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-622.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/screen-shot-2011-10-16-at-3-20-12-pm-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) [The Voice Assistant Who Cried WolfCan Siri meet the moment this time?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-623.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Siri-Cartoon-Wolf-Scene-2-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) [6 Syllables, 60 Times“Apple Intelligence” dominated WWDC![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-624.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-06-11-at-10.57.41-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-apple-intelligence/) [Big Mad Over OpenAI and AppleElon Musk rides the ballistic boat down Apple’s river![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-625.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-ChatGPT-integration-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/elon-big-mad-at-apple/) [Apple’s Artificial Approach to ‘Apple Intelligence’Apple is doing “AI” their way, in ways likely good and well, TBD![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-626.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-10-ChatGPT-3-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) [Hey Siri, Who Powers You Now?How Apple might handle their partnership with OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-627.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-10-Crayon-Drawing.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-openai-chatgpt-apple/) [As Apple AI Arrives, Will Wall Street Buy It? 📧‘Apple Intelligence’ is a good name, but it is a good narrative?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-628.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_pencil_sketch_of_money_falling_on_wall_street_with_ro_c7997b22-4783-4013-b795-fbc738606a3a_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-wall-street/) [Jolting Siri Back to LifeDoes OpenAI hold the defibrillator?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-629.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-06-07-09.58.05---A-futuristic-robot-holding-a-defibrillator-over-a-smartphone.-The-robot-should-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-blue-and-silver-colors--and-look-hum-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/jolting-siri-back-to-life/) [NVIDIA’s Last Laugh with AppleNVIDIA hits $3T market cap and soars past Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-630.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-06-05-at-10.09.23-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) [Apple Opts-In to OpenAI...and you’ll apparently have to as well![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-631.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-06-05-15.10.05---A-watercolor-painting-of-an-iPhone-with-a-chatbot-interface-on-the-screen.-The-chatbot-should-have-a-friendly-and-engaging-design--with-colorful-speec-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-opt-in-openai/) ****May 2024** [Is Siri About to Get a ChatGPT Brain Transplant?Or simply an augmentation? Or will Apple finally launch ‘Knowledge Navigator’?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-632.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Brain-Illustration-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/) [Is a Ferret Burrowing Inside Siri?Putting some pieces together for Siri’s AI upgrade…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-633.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Ferret-Drawing-2024-05-31-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai-ferret/) [Apple Secures Their AI Security AngleUsing the ‘Secure Enclave’ to do AI in the cloud makes sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-634.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-May-30-Cloud-Security-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-cloud-security/) [Ready or Not, Here Apple AI ComesWill slow but not fully steady win the race?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-635.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Apple-AI-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai/) [‘The Talk Show’ Episode 400The Talk Show Episode 400 ‘Canadian Girlfriend Vibes’ with M.G. Siegler Daring Fireball John Gruber If you’d like to hear myself and John Gruber talk about the iPad/macOS hoopla, the Scarlett Johansson/OpenAI hoopla, or just a bit about Spyglass itself, you’ll hopefully enjoy this relatively svelte one![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-636.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Podcast-Drawing-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/scarlett-spyglass-show/) [Apple’s Rightfully Boring AI PlayApple is playing catch up, but doesn’t need to sprint![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-637.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-May-27-iPhone-AI-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-boring-ai/) [Thunderstruck or Highway to Hell?Apple’s AI work nears its big reveal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-638.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/s-l1200-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-acdc-ai/) [Apple’s AI Strategy, At Your Service 📧The relative calm before the “AI, AI, AI, AI, AI” storm…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-639.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/AI-powered-iPad-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-ai-strategy/) ****April 2024** [Might Apple Rock and Pop OpenAI on Stage at WWDC?Let’s remember 15 years ago…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-640.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-04-27-at-8.21.49-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-iphone/) [Reading Between Apple’s Open Source AI Lines...Apple’s AI Play with M.G. Siegler What Apple might be up to in the AI space, the robot world, and how the business is doing overall... Big Technology Podcast Alex Kantrowitz Last week I went on Alex Kantrowitz’s Big Technology Podcast to talk all things Apple. But the majority![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-641.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_AI_robot_build_by_Apple_8fa3ad3a-6830-40c8-8e84-14f73567ff08-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-llm/) [Apple Ferrets Out UI for AIFerret-UI may help Siri understand iOS app interfacesApple’s Ferret LLM could help allow Siri to understand the layout of apps in an iPhone display, potentially increasing the capabilities of Apple’s digital assistant.AppleInsiderMalcolm Owen This isn’t the first we’re hearing about “Ferret” – an AI project inside of Apple,![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-642.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_ferret_using_an_iPhone_cartoon_105c5727-f47d-4a9d-affc-450311702222-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ferret-ai/) [Apple Odds & Ends Leading Up to WWDC AI DayApple Is Rebooting Its Search for a New Next Big ThingApple’s search for a bold new product category is back on, and it includes a foray into robots. Also: The company is preparing new iPads and accompanying accessories for May; the Vision Pro gets another Personas upgrade; and Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-643.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Future-Products-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-odds-ends-leading-up-to-ai-day/) ****March 2024** [WWDC24AIAIAIAIAIAI Also, AIApple Hints at iOS 18 AI Announcements Coming at WWDC 2024Apple today announced official dates for the 35th annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which is set to begin on Monday, June 10\. In its…MacRumorsJuli Clover Happy WWDC Dates Announcement Day to those who celebrate.1 I joke, but there are![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-644.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/WWDC24-Announcement-June-10-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wwdc24-apple-ai/) [Outsourcing the aiPhone – At Least to Start...Apple Is in Talks to Let Google Gemini Power iPhone AI FeaturesApple Inc. is in talks to build Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone, according to people familiar with the situation, setting the stage for a blockbuster agreement that would shake up the AI industry.BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-645.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPhone-powered-by-Google-AI-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-ai-iphone/) [Can’t Innovate Anymore, My AI!Apple is right not to rush headlong into generative AIOne day the Vision Pro could exploit the technology to the fullThe EconomistThe Economist It feels like The Economist hits all the right points in this clapback on the current wave of Apple backlash: In short, with its market value down![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-646.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Gener-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-cook/) ****January 2024** [Lo! The AiPhone Nears...Apple Boosts Plans to Bring AI to iPhones Apple is quietly increasing its capabilities in artificial intelligence... Financial Times Michael Acton On one hand, all of this feels fairly obvious. Yes, Apple is planning to have AI be a part of the iPhone going forward – just like every company currently![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-647.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPhone-AI-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/aiphone/) ### WWDC 2025 URL: https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/ Last updated: 2025-07-03T16:43:21.000Z [Hey Siri, Time for that LobotomyAs predicted, Apple may outsource Siri to ChatGPT (or Claude)!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1380.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ad98f15-b90d-4490-9630-f46e158cd894-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) [Whittling Down Apple’s Big AI M&A OptionsI’ll bring my list of five down to four…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1311.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) [Apple Ponders PerplexityA partnership is probably more likely, but they have to at least think about buying here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1310.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-20-at-11.39.09---PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) [While ‘iOS 26’ Will Ship in 2025, ‘Siri 26’ Will Ship in 2026The “coming year” really means “next year”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1172.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Siri_talking_to_someone_--ar_169_--v_7_025f5580-340f-4f7e-b5c0-5bee5bc1f734_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-2026/) [Apple’s UI Event in the Age of AIBreaking down WWDC 25 and the myriad issues around Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1168.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_Apple_logo_encased_in_liquid_glass_--ar_169_--v_7_23df5dd6-fc6c-4efe-a256-67b7eebff3e4_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) [The Mind-Blowing Mac-ness of iPadOS 26Apple embraces the blurring lines between iPad and Mac. Finally.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1167.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-12-at-11.08.24---AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/) [Liquid GlasslightingThere are no issues with AI within Apple, why do you ask?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1160.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_gaslight_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--v_7_bda60a1d-710e-4aa9-8ff5-44da25df4173_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) [Apple Tries to Hide AI Under Liquid GlassWWDC 25 certainly wasn’t six out of five stars…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1156.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-10-at-2.18.36---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) ****Pre-Keynote:** [Reasoning About the Reasoning of Reasoning ModelsDid Apple just nuke the AI industry? Lol, no.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1144.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robotic_brain_as_the_top_of_a_nuclear_fall_out_cloud__9766c054-f4e2-4f0a-9a8e-d6214680f844_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/have-these-researchers-used-siri/) [Siri Doomed Apple in AI, Just Like Alexa Did with AmazonTheir previous “success” in assistants became albatrosses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1135.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_albatross_around_the_neck_of_a_robot_--ar_21_--v_7_17d33bc8-4e5a-4bb7-9bb2-8a1530dc4a28_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) [App Store Changes Here to Stay with the Denial of Apple’s StayAt least for the foreseeable future, and potentially forever…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1119.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-5--2025--09_57_56-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/) [A Samsung Deal Makes An Apple One More Complex for PerplexityBut it still makes a ton of sense for the AI company, obviously…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1087.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2025--01_33_24-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/) [Profiles in Courage: Apple EditionWhen an event decline is sign of decline…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1088.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_logo_upside_down_being_dipped_in_tar_--ar_169__3738de14-0baf-4ac4-b1bf-8223efea77b7_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) [Apple Veers Into Microsoft Branding Territory‘iOS 26’ will naturally follow ‘iOS 18’ in 2025…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1089.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-28--2025--11_26_01-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/) [Might Apple’s Gaming Ambitions Have a Hidden Quest?A new gaming-focused app could solve one big problem for Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1090.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-28--2025--05_13_14-PM-4-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-gaming-app-store/) [Apple Reminds Developers: Be Careful What You Wish ForApple issues a reminder of all they do to protect you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1091.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/the-untouchables-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-fraud-protection/) [A Cook In Trump’s DoghouseOne missed roadtrip cost Apple hundreds of billions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1092.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-27--2025--09_18_29-PM-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/) [Apple’s No Good, Very Bad WeekHard to recall such a series of bad beats for one company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1093.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_1054-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-no-good-very-bad-week/) [Google Slams on the AI GasDoes it leave Apple in the dust?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1137.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2025--12_27_01-PM-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) [Apple Set to Show Some AI Skin, But Not the Full MontyGiving developers on-device AI access makes sense, and buys Apple some time to get their larger models up to speed…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1136.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_iPhone_with_AI_--ar_21_--profile_p6bo5ty_--v_7_9afcad53-aadc-4db9-9d99-148ecfc414d4_2-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-core-ai/) [Good Vibrations Between Apple & AnthropicIt makes sense for the two to partner on “vibe coding” – might we hear more at WWDC?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1138.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_wrapped_in_computer_code_--ar_21_--profi_8cb3a1c1-4037-4da3-8a6a-6a4d6deb5244_3-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-anthropic-xcode-coding/) [Tim Cook Chose Poorly, Now Apple Can Choose WiselyTear down the App Store wall![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1139.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-11.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) [Apple’s “Faster Horses” Fallback StrategyThe Vision Pro and iPadOS may be going down this path…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1140.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_horse_racing_branded_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--p_05fefd99-9dee-4747-b85c-daef8e3d19fa_2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/) 📆 ****Last Year's Coverage** [WWDC 2024Articles leading up to and after Apple’s WWDC keynote on June 10, 2024…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1120.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-WWDC24-event-announcement-hero_big.jpg.large-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2024/) ### Microsoft & OpenAI: A Love/Hate Story URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/ Last updated: 2025-11-13T20:44:36.000Z It started with an investment and now it's seemingly ending in a bitter fight over equity and control and everything else in between... ****October 2025** [Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AIOn paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burn…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-556.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_anptfianptfianpt-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) [OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their StakeMicrosoft signs off on OpenAI’s PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-555.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-28--2025--08_44_31-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) [Anthropic’s Big Tech Strategy Deepens...And by going deeper with Google, do they risk stepping on NVIDIA’s and Amazon’s toes?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-554.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-24--2025--10_09_54-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/) [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-553.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-456.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) ****September 2025** [The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs...Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-455.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_massive_data_center_being_built_out_--ar_169_--v_7_b58eab90-7490-4473-9d35-53b32c5943b0_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-382.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-381.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-380.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) ****August 2025** [Super Ultra Megaintelligence™A podcast conversation looking into such things…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-188.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-6-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-187.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) ****July 2025** [Microsoft Puts a Face to Their (Bad) AI Bot NameThe anthropomorphized Copilot is interesting – in ways good and bad.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-186.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-07-28-at-8.48.49---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-185.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) [‘Stargate’ GazingWith the original partnership slow to start, OpenAI shifts the goalposts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-184.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MERc8196210c4d1db04614d6db9f3e4fstargate1020-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) [The Endless Rebranding of AIFrom AI to AGI to Superintelligence to... brands trying to make Granular Superintelligence happen![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-183.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_visual_representation_of_superintelligence_--v_7_d8edb2ca-06b5-49bc-8f5a-a59e673a0ed0_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) [An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google ‘Hackqusition’...A rough few weeks may signal some real talent trouble for OpenAI – at the worst possible time![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-25.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_picture_of_many_different_hands_trading_money_waterco_af8bc984-c043-4956-9b77-7ce521e86dce_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) ****June 2025** [OpenAI and Microsoft Risk Open WarForget biting hands and back-stabbing, this fight keeps escalating…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1264.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-16--2025--10_47_25-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) ****May 2025** [The Stargate Data Center Layer CakeJPMorgan -> Crusoe -> Blue Owl -> Oracle -> NVIDIA -> SoftBank -> OpenAI ->…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1263.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BMTI5MTE1OTAzOV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDc2OTgyMQ@@._V1_-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) [OpenAI’s Second CEO Tasked With A Lot of First CEO StuffHow this awkward “number two” role may play out…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1262.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2025--12_28_37-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/) [Microsoft Zoom, Zoom, Zooms to the Defensive About AIThis is not such a great look and posture for the company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1261.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-16--2025--11_45_24-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-zoom-zoom-zooms-to-the-defensive-about-ai/) [“Not a Normal Company”But OpenAI may finally be making moves towards becoming one…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1260.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2025--08_01_14-PM-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) [Microsoft’s OpenAI Equity Jigsaw PuzzleWith the non-profit maintaining a controlling stake and an FMV floor set by Elon Musk, OpenAI still has a hell of a challenge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1259.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2025--09_28_55-AM-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) [OpenAI Attempts to Have Their For-Profit Cake and Eat It TooOpenAI leaves the for-profit path, maybe, with a trail of questions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1258.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_cake_baked_with_money_realistic_looking_with_a_slick__40636e6b-83b4-4633-83e7-2f5c44475e8c_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1257.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) ****April 2025** [Hey JealousyAre OpenAI and Microsoft back bickering yet again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1256.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--2--1-10.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/) [Why Buy the Llama When You Can Get the Model For Free?Meta would like their rivals’ help in offsetting their AI costs. Good luck.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1255.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_llama_with_a_jar_of_milk_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6_-_ec765ad5-523d-45d3-b240-29aed38be64b_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/) ****March 2025** [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1254.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) [My God, It’s Full of StargatesxAI and NVIDIA join another $100B AI data center initiative…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1253.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/stargate-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stargate-project-rivals/) [The Curious Case of Amazon’s Anthropic StakeUsing Google’s stake to back into Amazon’s likely much larger stake…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1252.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_exploring_in_the_amazon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_87eed52b-3793-4015-a948-401814463d3c_2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) [Bing When You’re WinningMicrosoft had a window to win consumer AI — and perhaps the future of search![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1251.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/51VyzojTrcL._UF1000-1000_QL80_-2-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) [The OpenAI ConstellationsThe out-of-this-world funding numbers in OpenAI’s orbit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1250.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_space_with_money_signs_--ar_21_--prof_21804d63-0790-4c9f-aa93-88c57c811c4c_3-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the/) [Might Microsoft Be Gearing Up to ‘Clippy’ the Consumer Copilot?Personally, I’m hoping for a more ‘Microsoft Bob’-like experience…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1249.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-04-12.52.50---A-dramatic--humorous-illustration-of-Microsoft-s-Clippy-exacting-revenge-in-an-office-environment.-Clippy--depicted-as-a-mischievous-anthropomorphic-p-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-clippy-copilot-ai/) [Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPTNot forever, but for now. Until a new, better Siri is actually ready to roll — which may be \*years\* away…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1248.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_with_an_apple_logo_and_a_scientist_opening_up_i_dbf83ee0-18c0-48e0-8074-7e3f2a9c4212_2-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) ****February 2025** [OpenAI’s EQ Upgrade to Hold Us Over to the IQ UpgradeThey’re clearly angling GPT-4.5 as being an emotionally intelligent update about getting the “vibes” right![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1247.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_emotional_robot_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_5d849d55-21f1-4f76-a57d-98f93272aeda_2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-gpt-45/) [Early Provocative AI Chatbots, RevisitedTwo years ago, we were up in arms over Bing’s AI “Sydney”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1246.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dolores-1920-1-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) [The Art of the Old DealTim Cook calls up some old plays to deflect Trump’s tariffs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1245.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-5.20.51-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/) [AI Data Center Demand Isn’t Collapsing, It’s ShiftingFor now, at least, this news just seems to be Microsoft offloading OpenAI needs to SoftBank, Oracle, and others…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1244.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_data_center_flowing_with_money_--ar_21_--profile_zego_71a39b3f-d351-4d39-ac2e-b3052b2dc946_3-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-demand/) [Microsoft Outsources OpenAI’s Ambitions to SoftBankThere’s a new capital partner in town as they march towards ‘superintelligence’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1243.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_two_men_passing_a_buck_cartoon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoym_8ba66d6f-5b36-4bc4-b421-119a80ade3b6_0-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) [The One AI to Rule Them AllTrying to grok the outlook for general-purpose consumer AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1242.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--82--3-11.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) [What You DeepSeek Is Seeking YouTwo weeks after the latest AI panic, has anything really changed?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1241.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_meditation_black_silhouette_bright_colors_with_a_subt_546f2e6e-6578-4c05-966e-16f4fdd808c4_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/) [Elon Musk Shoves Another Chaos Wrench in OpenAI’s GearsCan he even buy a non-profit? Does it matter?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1240.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-10-22.51.02---A-detailed-illustration-of-a-large-wrench-being-forcefully-shoved-into-the-cogs-of-an-industrial-machine--causing-sparks-and-mechanical-damage.-The-sc-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/) [Observations About Sam Altman’s ObservationsHe’s seeking for something deep…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1239.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_painting_of_a_man_wandering_forward_into_a_field_of_t_2ae99a1d-fdbc-408c-bee5-85c148a658f4_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) [The $500B Phone CallWhen Sam called Donald behind Elon’s back and secured funding![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1238.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_golden_phone_photo_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_2a2a0c0b-f7cd-437c-9717-0423fffee3a9_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-500b-phone-call/) [The IPOpenAIA step-back way to frame OpenAI’s rumored mega raise…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1237.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-03-17.49.44---A-futuristic-scene-with-robots-jumping-to-grab-flying-money-in-the-air.-The-robots-are-sleek-and-humanoid--with-metallic-bodies-and-glowing-eyes.-The--2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) ****January 2025** [SoftBank, Indeed10 thoughts on OpenAI’s would-be new massive funding round…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1236.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--79--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) [Post-Explosion, Seeking the DeepSeek FalloutA guess: DeepSeek itself will matter less than the reaction to it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1235.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_nuclear_blast_with_digital_bits_--ar_21_--profile_zeg_f7dcabeb-2e9f-46f9-a963-7e94d70fb2be_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/) [Should Apple Switch Off Siri?In our Age of AI, Siri continues to embarrass Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1234.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--74--9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) [AI, Uh, Finds a WayHas DeepSeek changed the AI game or just some equations?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1233.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-12.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) [Microsoft Back on the Clock for TikTokThis time, they’d potentially partner with Oracle (perhaps Elon too?)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1232.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--73--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-tiktok-oracle-deal/) [From ‘Space Balls’ to ‘Stargate’Elon Musk backing out of Oracle’s project opened the datacenter door to OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1231.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/barf-makes-a-waitress-uncomfortable-1638892242-1-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/from-space-balls-to-stargate/) [‘Stargate’ Squares Some AI CirclesOpenAI, Microsoft, SoftBank, Oracle, Trump, MGX, ARM, and NVIDIA all get double-dip wins in the announcement![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1230.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Stargate-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) ****December 2024** [10 Big Predictions for 2025One of which may actually happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1229.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_2025_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_ac39eaaa-8b05-4b54-9f96-14739040d5b4_3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) [Being for the Benefit of OpenAIOpenAI’s shift to a for-profit is messy, complicated, conflicted, and yet necessary![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1228.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-12-30-14.31.56---A-surreal-and-dramatic-scene-featuring-a-glowing--chaotic-sphere-of-swirling-energy--surrounded-by-fragmented-light-and-tendrils-of-lightning--suspend-3-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit/) [Might Microsoft Make Another Run at TikTok?A deal makes more sense in 2024 than it did in 2020…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1227.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_white_knight_riding_in_to_save_tiktok_--ar_43_--v_6.1_824969ba-29d6-47d6-bb2e-75f333c37933_0-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/might-microsoft-make-another-run-at-tiktok/) ****November 2024** [The Race for AI IndependenceAmazon, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all wish to break away from each other. As does OpenAI. With everyone needing to break free from NVIDIA.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1226.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) [OpenAI’s Potentially Massive iOS ChatGPT UpsellAs the integration nears, we see how the (business) model will work…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1225.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-10.10.13-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ios-chatgpt-upgrade/) ****October 2024** [The War of the AI RosesMicrosoft and OpenAI increasingly make strange bedfellows…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1224.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/roses_banner-6.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) [OpenAI Must Scale a Massive Money MountainProjections alone suggest perhaps another $25B needed from here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1223.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--21--1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/openai-magic-money-mountain/) [OpenAI’s Space RaceServer space, that is... still against, Elon Musk, naturally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1222.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--18--1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/) [Microsoft’s Awkward AIThere’s a Copilot for that…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1221.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-02-22.54.16---A-charming-and-cute-scene-of-two-robots-acting-bashful.-The-robots-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-humanoid-features--and-they-are-positioned-close-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) [A Matter of TrustMicrosoft’s new AI is asking and promising a lot…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1220.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-10-02-at-12.38.18-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-matter-of-trust/) ****September 2024** [The Art of the OpenAI DealThinking through their numbers and those deal terms…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1219.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-30-11.45.00---A-cartoon-depiction-of-a-very-rich-man-wearing-a-fancy-suit--holding-a-wad-of-cash--and-handing-it-over-to-a-man-in-a-hoodie.-The-rich-man-looks-confi-1-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-openai-deal/) [Apple Balks and Walks from OpenAI InvestmentIt was an obvious investment that was always potentially problematic; add more chaos into the mix and... poof!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1218.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_bank_vault_closing_with_an_apple_logo_on_it_--ar_43_-_86788933-3ade-46b1-9d1c-ce9d3272ae28_3-1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/) [The Microsoft AI NewscasterThe company is clearly trying to create a daily consumer habit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1217.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-26-17.21.46---A-retro-styled-robot-designed-as-a-1950s-newscaster--sitting-behind-a-desk.-The-robot-is-made-of-shiny--polished-metal-with-large--round-eyes-and-a-te-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-newscaster/) [OpenAI’s Wild RideChaos is a series of coincidences?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1216.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-26-12.19.48---A-playful-and-dynamic-scene-of-a-group-of-robots-having-fun-in-a-convertible-car-without-a-roof--speeding-over-giant-hills.-The-robots-are-excited-and-1-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chaos/) [The Fellowship of the AI9 companions: the US teams up with the biggest American AI firms…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1215.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-09-24-at-11.08.16-AM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/american-ai-alliance/) [Does Microsoft Have an AI Problem?It’s early, but there sure is a lot of smoke billowing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1214.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/visualelectric-4-4.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/) [OpenAI’s Messy MetamorphosisAs it morphs from the non-profit past to the must-profit future…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1213.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-03-14.53.03---A-detailed-illustration-depicting-the-stages-of-a-caterpillar-s-metamorphosis-into-a-butterfly.-The-image-is-divided-into-four-distinct-parts_-the-fir-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-metamorphosis/) ****August 2024** [Apple and OpenAI Now Have a Way for Money to Change HandsApple’s investment in OpenAI would effectively be paying for ChatGPT![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1212.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1800s-Money-Exchange-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/) [\*Of Course\* Apple is Investing in OpenAIThe writing was on the wall -- also it was on Spyglass…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1211.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-giving-money-to-OpenAI-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) [Microsoft’s Hedge Against OpenAIConnecting all the obvious dots…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1210.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-08-10-17.59.23---A-close-up-view-of-someone-trimming-a-hedge.-The-scene-shows-the-hedge--which-is-dense-and-green--being-carefully-shaped-with-a-pair-of-pruning-shears-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-hedge-against-openai/) [OpenAI Generates More TurmoilIt’s probably time to change that non-profit structure for good…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1209.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-08-06-17.58.58---An-image-of-a-company-in-turmoil_-a-chaotic-office-scene-with-stressed-employees--papers-flying-around--broken-computers--and-a-manager-looking-frustr-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/) [TikTokwardHow many red flags can we count in the Microsoft/TikTok AI spend news?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1208.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Aug-01-The-TikTok-and-Microsoft-logos-hugging-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/tiktokward/) ****July 2024** [The Ground Shifts Under AI’s FeetA continued push towards products as the arms race evolves…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1207.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_mark_zuckerberg_as_a_roman_generla_3de5592e-91e2-4045-a84a-f42f35964dd7_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-meta-openai/) [Nothing Boring About OpenAI’s BoardApple’s role rescinded, Microsoft’s role renounced…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1206.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Board-Room-People-Shadows-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-board-apple-microsoft/) [Apple Set to be in the Room Where OpenAI HappensApple entering OpenAI’s boardroom is all sorts of interesting and wild!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1205.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-July-8-Alexander-Hamilton-2-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) ****June 2024** [Distribution Runs Thicker...Meta in talks for ‘Apple Intelligence’ wouldn’t be a huge shock. Maybe.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1204.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Mark_Zuckerberg_and_Tim_Cook_shaking_hands_569a0d2a-47fa-4cc6-b0de-4340be695bdf_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai/) [Apple Fails to Overreact to the AI RevolutionA podcast about WWDC…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1203.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-14-Epic-Scene-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-fails-to-overreact-to-ai/) [Can Microsoft Build ‘Apple Intelligence’ in Reverse?The countdown to ‘Microsoft Intelligence’ feels on. Sorry, OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1202.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Popcorn-Robots-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-intelligence-apple/) [ChatGPT is Free as in Beer for Apple, Right NowBut let’s see what happens if it proves popular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1201.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-iOS-18-Screenshot-June-11-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-apple-money/) [ChatGPT Will Test Apple’s FencesApple is opening itself up to a lot of gray area with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1200.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Velociraptors-Jungle-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-gray-areas/) [Big Mad Over OpenAI and AppleElon Musk rides the ballistic boat down Apple’s river![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1199.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-ChatGPT-integration-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/elon-big-mad-at-apple/) [Hey Siri, Who Powers You Now?How Apple might handle their partnership with OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1198.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-10-Crayon-Drawing-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-openai-chatgpt-apple/) [“Microsoft? Never Heard of Em.”Will the Inflection totally not a deal come back to bite Microsoft?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1265.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-06-06-08.50.39---A-pencil-sketch-of-a-man-sitting-at-a-desk-in-a-large-warehouse-filled-with-empty-desks.-He-is-talking-on-the-phone.-The-warehouse-is-spacious-with-hi-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-ftc/) [Apple Opts-In to OpenAI...and you’ll apparently have to as well![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1197.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-06-05-15.10.05---A-watercolor-painting-of-an-iPhone-with-a-chatbot-interface-on-the-screen.-The-chatbot-should-have-a-friendly-and-engaging-design--with-colorful-speec-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-opt-in-openai/) ****May 2024** [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?A sense of tension between the two sides is inescapable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1196.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-surreal-image-6.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) ****April 2024** [Might Apple Rock and Pop OpenAI on Stage at WWDC?Let’s remember 15 years ago…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1195.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-04-27-at-8.21.49-PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-iphone/) ****March 2024** [This is Expensive CoffeeMicrosoft Agreed to Pay Inflection $650 Million While Hiring Its Staff Microsoft doesn’t want its plan to hire two of Inflection AI’s co-founders and most of its 70-person staff to be seen as an acquisition... The Information Jessica E. Lessin, Natasha Mascarenhas, & Aaron Holmes Just to follow-up on![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1266.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/93367852-476c-4930-8f17-64017adcafcd-1-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) [What Was the Point of Inflection?Microsoft Hires DeepMind Co-founder Mustafa Suleyman from Inflection to Run Consumer AI He’s reporting to Satya Nadella and bringing on most staff from his Inflection AI startup... Techmeme Various Headlines So many questions about this Microsoft/Inflection deal. Wait a minute, strike that. There is no deal. Well, there may![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1194.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1709297030-inflection2-blogsize-1000x752-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) [Microsoft to NYT: Shut Your “Doomsday Futurology” TrapsMicrosoft Derides the New York Times’ AI Lawsuit Microsoft has accused The New York Times of “doomsday futurology” for predicting that ChatGPT could ruin the news business The Financial Times Joe Miller Well this is sort of fun – these are words Microsoft’s lawyers actually used in responding to a lawsuit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1192.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Doomsday-Futurology--1--2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-nyt/) [It Depends What the Meaning of the Acronym ‘AGI’ IsElon Musk Sues OpenAI for Violating the Company’s Principles Musk said the prominent A.I. start-up had put profits and commercial interests ahead of seeking to benefit humanity. NYT Adam Satariano, Cade Metz & Tripp Mickle When the news first hit, it was almost a throwaway – of course Elon Musk![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1193.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_hollywood_run_by_robots_7316d768-86f4-4691-bef7-a44e101f35d7-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) ### Meta's Great AI Reboot URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/ Last updated: 2025-10-21T08:05:22.000Z [Apple’s AI Brain BleedMeta keeps poaching Apple’s AI talent and that’s a real problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-454.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-453.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-374.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) [Super Ultra Megaintelligence™A podcast conversation looking into such things…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-182.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-6-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/) [The Scale is New, the Idea Isn’tA fictionalized movie about BlackBerry feels familiar…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-181.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/blackberry-movie-poaching/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-180.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) [OpenAI Figures Out Their Path Back to “Open”The open weight model is important but also a bit subversive…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-179.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_open_road_--ar_43_--v_7_f70c237f-54c5-4bce-ae32-991501f930bc_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/) [Meta’s ‘Anti-Godfather’ OffersAs we cross into ten-figure territory, people keep turning them down…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-178.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ozerxvxpu171-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) [A Personal Read of ‘Personal Superintelligence’Ahead of Meta earnings and with mega offers being turned down, Mark Zuckerberg aims to change the conversation around AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-88.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_with_packs_of_money_--ar_43_--v_7_1606eb42-c07e-4685-94f0-b468e32b9895_2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) [Meta’s ‘MoE’ MistakeMore details on how Llama’s open source AI backfired…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-78.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_hit_in_the_stomach_with_a_bowling_ball__ea96c30b-21a2-4e21-b529-1f661229eb13_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) [The Have Lots & the Have NotsA time of $100M+ job offers and also layoffs at the same companies…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-77.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_being_shot_out_of_a_firehose_cartoon_--ar_43_--v__9ed37ac4-4049-4b7c-a2ab-e41df0088f89_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-76.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) [Meta’s AI Relativity TheoryMark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-75.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-74.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-73.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google ‘Hackqusition’...A rough few weeks may signal some real talent trouble for OpenAI – at the worst possible time![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-72.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_picture_of_many_different_hands_trading_money_waterco_af8bc984-c043-4956-9b77-7ce521e86dce_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-71.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) [Meta’s ‘Godfather’ OfferWhich, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused – so far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-70.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-18.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) [Zuck’s Eleven7 from OpenAI, 2 from Google, 1 from Anthropic, 1 from Sesame... But just as interesting, what’s \*not\* mentioned.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-69.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/16755053_web1_oceans-11-6.webp)](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-68.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [$100M AI Signing BonusesExaggeration, conflation, a game of Telephone, directional accuracy, brinksmanship, or all of the above?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-67.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_cash_falling_from_the_sky_moody_--ar_43_--v_7_d6ebc446-3fe2-4793-b80b-893cc4ee9e52_2-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) [Meta Hackquires a VC Fund“Team Superintelligence” continues to assemble at Meta, but it’s getting even more awkward…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-66.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/metamoney-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) [Hey Meta AI, Is This Fraud? Publish.I’m shocked, shocked that Meta has a new privacy nightmare on their hands – this time powered by AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-65.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-15-at-10.06.25---PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-64.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-63.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) ### From Afar (2024) URL: https://spyglass.org/column-2024/ Last updated: 2026-07-07T09:49:21.000Z Columns published in 2024\. Those which are exclusive to paid members are denoted below, outlined in **SEA GREEN**. Members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will get the full access: ****𑗏** [****Sign up for Spyglass**](#/portal/signup) ****𑗏** ****⌾** [****Upgrade to The Inner Ring**](#/portal/account/plans) ****⌾** ****December 2024** [10 Big Predictions for 2025One of which may actually happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-276.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_2025_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_ac39eaaa-8b05-4b54-9f96-14739040d5b4_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) [Being for the Benefit of OpenAIOpenAI’s shift to a for-profit is messy, complicated, conflicted, and yet necessary![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-275.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-12-30-14.31.56---A-surreal-and-dramatic-scene-featuring-a-glowing--chaotic-sphere-of-swirling-energy--surrounded-by-fragmented-light-and-tendrils-of-lightning--suspend-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The Greatest Trick Netflix Ever Pulled......was convincing the world they weren’t interested in live sports![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-274.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-26-at-8.07.19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) [Buy Me to the MoonApple, we have a movie problem![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-269.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/20240711T0900-MOVIE-REVIEW-FLY-ME-MOON-1779031-scaled-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/) [For 007, Amazon is Not EnoughAmazon seemingly has a big Barbara Broccoli problem, which means the world has a big James Bond problem![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-268.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-20-at-1.50.39-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/license-to-shop/) [America Has Been AcquiredThis has felt less like an election and more like a deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-243.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_american_flag_with_money_falling_from_the_sky_in_a_s_84e2fa03-acf6-425d-881f-c46b0ee750e4_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/america-has-been-acquired/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Apple’s Next Question: Hold ‘Em or Fold ’Em?An ‘iPhone Fold’ or a massive ‘iPad Fold’, that is the question…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-242.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-16-at-2.13.18-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/foldable-iphone-ipad/) [It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like ComcastYouTube TV is becoming the cable package we all hated…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-241.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_yelling_at_his_laptop_with_a_remote_control_in_ha_a069793b-dd00-4d02-8669-f2b03b74687b_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/) [Might Microsoft Make Another Run at TikTok?A deal makes more sense in 2024 than it did in 2020…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-233.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_white_knight_riding_in_to_save_tiktok_--ar_43_--v_6.1_824969ba-29d6-47d6-bb2e-75f333c37933_0-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/might-microsoft-make-another-run-at-tiktok/) [Apple Made the Right Call and a Stupid Decision with ‘Wolfs’The movie would have flopped in theaters but still…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-218.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wolfs-teaser-trailer-052924-22cd578455d94219999905f3ac2ac14e-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Tim Cook’s ClockA great interview quietly reveals quite a bit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-229.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_tim_cook_looking_at_his_apple_watch_painting_--ar_43_--_1f3ca9a4-e2a8-4c20-ae19-234a3104b0a8_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) [Intel Inside, Gelsinger OutsideDealt a bad hand by a board who wouldn’t give him enough time, Intel’s next leader needs full control to think different![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-206.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--61--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside-gelsinger/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Moana Two-Hundred-and-Twenty-Five MillionDisney almost didn’t know how far ‘Moana 2’ would go…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-196.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/_moana_2__2024__poster_textless__04_by_mintmovi3_didiz18-pre-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/moana-2-hundred-and-twenty-five-million/) [A Call to More ARMsThe need to embolden the European startup landscape…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-193.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_unicorn_roaming_through_europe_--ar_43_--v_6.1_b8ea4092-0d24-4fe2-885c-c430d2044bf7_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-call-to-more-arms/) ****November 2024** [Meta Launches a Bluesky CompetitorIt’s called ‘Threads’ -- perhaps you’ve heard of it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-190.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_cartoon_of_a_blue_butterly_tied_up_in_thread_--ar_43__5ce7a812-8f38-4821-a0d8-65eb102a97f1_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/threads-vs-bluesky/) [“Just a Big iPad”Imagine if the imaginary Apple Television was a massive touchscreen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-189.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_person_touching_a_giant_touch_screen_TV_mounted_on_a__a760af7a-71d8-4816-84d4-b3f98f969b27_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-touch-television/) [Apple Pisses Off HollywoodDid their self-own with “Wolfs” just torch their film division?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-188.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1wolfs-1-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) [Forget the Fate of Chrome, Focus on the Fate of the BrowserIn debating what undoubtedly won’t happen, we’re looking past some key things that are -- and might…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-163.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-22-11.57.12---A-surreal-illustration-of-the-Google-Chrome-logo-being-squeezed--with-the-iconic-multicolored-sphere--red--green--yellow--and-blue--appearing-slightly-3-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [I’ve Been Here for YearsBut where, has changed -- too often, I’m afraid…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-161.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_younger_mans_hands_typing_on_a_keyboard_--ar_43_--v_6.1_3b8045fb-a5d4-4b03-af3b-89d139cc321b_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/writing-on-the-web/) [Zig-Jag10 tips for Jaguar’s bizarre re-branding![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-153.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/JAGUAR_DEVICE_MARK_1X1_191124-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/jaguar-rebrand/) [Chrome AloneIf Google were to sell off Chrome, who would benefit? Anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-112.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--57--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) [Has Apple “Finally Cracked It”?Apple Television... now, that’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-113.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_television_set_made_by_apple_--v_6.1_e3f19e78-d764-46e5-9ef3-1338ea8c86a2_3-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The Vision Pro Starts to Come Into FocusWe’re starting to cook with fire. I’m writing this about the Vision Pro, in the Vision Pro. Which I really only did for a post or two for the novelty of it right after the device’s initial release. But now I’m doing it because it’s actually a good way to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-114.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-15-23.12.50---A-distant--artistic-depiction-of-a-person-wearing-Apple-s-Vision-Pro-headset.-The-figure-is-barely-visible-and-intentionally-out-of-focus--creating-a--1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Netflix’s Nickel on Apple TV’s DimeApple needs to tell us where to stream something -- even if it’s on Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-115.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-11-15-at-1.55.38-PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/) [Bluesky is Twitter’s Heir ApparentSorry Threads, you blew it. In real-time.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-116.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_giant_blue_butterfly_hovering_over_a_blue_bird_cartoo_b963b340-da44-4eae-897c-10f7351d662d_3-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/bluesky-is-twitters-heir-apparent/) [The Race for AI IndependenceAmazon, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all wish to break away from each other. As does OpenAI. With everyone needing to break free from NVIDIA.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-117.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Apple Admits the ObviousThere’s no topping the iPhone. As a business, there may never be.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-118.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_watercolor_painting_of_an_iPhone_ascending_to_heaven_--_ee0d6b40-b12d-46e5-ac2a-c5d59f2bda11_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [PaidPalsElon Musk will battle with Trump eventually. As Peter Thiel can attest.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-119.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--43--2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Tim Apple, Engage!Apple seems poised to appeal to Donald Trump on their EU issues…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-120.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--40--2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump-apple-eu/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Can Barbie Break Netflix?More pressure is applied to Netflix’s anti-movie-theater stance…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-121.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--38--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** ****October 2024** [Do You Feel In Charge?On bending the knee to Donald Trump…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-122.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-10-29-at-10.18.56-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Bezos Needs to Address the WaPo’s Broken BackThe decision is fine in a vacuum, the timing makes it anything but…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-123.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_jeff_bezos_working_in_a_newsroom_--ar_43_--v_6.1_4da710c8-9072-4640-86da-077dd1e1f1d8_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/washington-post-missing-spine/) [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-124.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24-.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Apple Claps BackApple Intelligence is about to be an “every day” product, so it needs to be the “best”, fast![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-125.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_boxer_wearing_trunks_with_an_apple_logo_on_them_carto_d1282a22-2bde-4cee-bb90-8426ac340022_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The War of the AI RosesMicrosoft and OpenAI increasingly make strange bedfellows…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-126.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/roses_banner-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Is ‘Remarkable Alexa’ Ready for a Prime Time Debut?Does the “romantic” Kindle event offer a cupcake clue?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-127.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_amazon_echo_device_being_used_as_a_football_--ar_43__a8ad2740-0605-4baa-8d63-35450709e58a_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/remarkable-alexa-event/) [Tesla’s Tomorrow Never KnowsCybercab is believing, but it needs to be being…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-128.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/teslarobovan21-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/teslas-tenuous-timelines/) [‘Submerged’ Plunges Us Into a Possible Spatial Movie FutureThe Edward Berger short film for Apple is good, but points to something great…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-129.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/60d1d055-8585-4d9d-83f5-6788cae411d9_2048x1365-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) [And Like That... He’s Gone.Some thoughts on Cullen Hoback’s new Satoshi Nakamoto doc![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-130.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/91515131-6371abf9f9232471f27f3a46983bfa2692c2a45037cc37ca148b76bcfcb78beb-d-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/satoshi-nakamoto-keyser-soze/) [Venture Capital’s “Crisis”A go-go decade morphs with opportunity and danger…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-131.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-04-13.05.58---A-stylized-version-of-the-Chinese-characters-for--crisis--------designed-with-elegant-calligraphic-brush-strokes.-The-characters-should-have-a-modern--3-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/vc-crisis/) [Microsoft’s Awkward AIThere’s a Copilot for that…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-132.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-02-22.54.16---A-charming-and-cute-scene-of-two-robots-acting-bashful.-The-robots-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-humanoid-features--and-they-are-positioned-close-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) [Apple Becomes the PupilSnap and Meta teach Apple a lesson…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-133.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-01-14.13.29---A-close-up--detailed-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-human-eye--with-the-Apple-logo-centered-in-the-iris.-The-eye-should-be-expressive--with-a-reflect-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** ****September 2024** [The Art of the OpenAI DealThinking through their numbers and those deal terms…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-134.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-30-11.45.00---A-cartoon-depiction-of-a-very-rich-man-wearing-a-fancy-suit--holding-a-wad-of-cash--and-handing-it-over-to-a-man-in-a-hoodie.-The-rich-man-looks-confi-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-openai-deal/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Apple Knew Where the Puck Was Going, But Meta Skated ThereMeta’s “Orion” points to the vision of an Apple “Visor”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-135.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-29-22.46.08---A-sleek-and-futuristic-Apple-Vision-Pro-visor--designed-with-smooth-curves-and-a-minimalistic-aesthetic.-The-visor-features-a-seamless--glossy-black-f-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The Pixel Fold Makes the iPhone Look OldGoogle figured out when to fold em -- Apple is still thinking on it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-136.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_3420-copy-1-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/) [An AI Call to ArmsSam Altman wraps a plea in some grandiose (and vague) promises…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-137.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-24-10.30.52---A-visually-striking-book-cover-for--A-Call-to-Arms--created-using-AI.-The-cover-features-a-bold--symbolic-image-of-a-raised-arm-or-fist--symbolizing-s-1-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/) [Meta’s Frenetic Connect KeynoteWeird pacing, awkward timing, cool products, and eternal optimism…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-138.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/RAKLMGV7HBPFXMOD4WF646Q6PM-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-frenetic-connect-keynote/) [Evan Spiegel’s SpectacleSnap’s presentation was arguably more impressive than the product…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-139.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-09-19-at-1.35.49-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/snap-spectacles/) [Should Microsoft Ride in to Save Intel?The white knight that once saved Apple can mount that steed again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-140.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--1--3-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Apple Needs an Editor 2Repeating Steve Jobs’ old points of view is not an actual point of view![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-141.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_An_Apple_Logo_surrounded_by_clutter_--ar_43_--v_6.1_bd61a08c-f11b-43fb-847f-0d54718e1338_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) [Does Microsoft Have an AI Problem?It’s early, but there sure is a lot of smoke billowing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-142.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/visualelectric-4-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/) [Apple Should Sign Howard Stern and Launch ‘Podcasts+’They may not care about podcasting, but they \*do\* care about Services…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-143.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Howard-Stern-Podcast-Apple.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** ****August 2024** [ESPN’s Path to Be \*the\* Streaming Sports BundleIt’s not exactly “clear”, as Amazon may battle them along the way…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-144.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ESPN-logo-living-room--3--1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Mark Zuckerberg’s Goal is to Be Neutral in Not Being NeutralIs Meta going MAGA or GAGA?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-145.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Mark-Zuckerberg-American-Flag.png)](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/) [Google Isn’t Lazy, It’s Timid. As It Sadly Must Be.Provocative soundbites aside, it’s obvious why Google isn’t OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-146.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Lazy-Engineer-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) [We Don’t Need Another iPod for Streaming TV, We Need An iTunesOne service to rule them all. And in the darkness, bind them.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-147.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_watercolor_painting_of_the_streaming_TV_set-top_box_flo_f463a1d0-164e-4220-b037-6fd359b253cd_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) [Reminder: What Actually Disrupted MicrosoftIt was not the Justice Department, despite the rhetoric this week…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-148.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_microsoft_logo_in_a_web_browser_window_--ar_43_--v_6._f211fe6e-bd14-40bf-a0ef-806e70dffedd_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/) [OpenAI Generates More TurmoilIt’s probably time to change that non-profit structure for good…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-149.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-08-06-17.58.58---An-image-of-a-company-in-turmoil_-a-chaotic-office-scene-with-stressed-employees--papers-flying-around--broken-computers--and-a-manager-looking-frustr-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/) [Dear ZuckThis shit is embarrassing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-150.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Mark-Zuckerberg-Chain-Pump-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** ****July 2024** [Never Tweet Your HeroesAlso maybe never tweet, period.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-227.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Watercolor-Blue-Bird.webp)](https://spyglass.org/never-tweet-your-heroes/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Mark Zuckerberg’s “Thoughts on Open Source AI”A page out of Steve Jobs’ playbook to go after... Apple (and everyone else)![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-226.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Mark-Zuckerberg-llama-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) [When Steve Jobs Called the Design World to ArmsAnd basically talked about the 2024 state of computing in 1983![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-225.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-22-at-9.15.45-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) [Apple Should Buy HBOAnd basically all of Warner Bros Discovery, which is selling…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-224.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Google-Glasses-Merge.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) [Backing the WinnerAttention VCs: going for Trump is no longer the contrarian bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-127.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Blond-President-Counting-Money-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/vcs-for-trump/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [How to Scale ParamountCan Skydance finally, actually bridge Silicon Valley and Hollywood?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-126.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_scaling_the_paramount_logo_18900cfa-a6b8-4cb4-afc3-d37bbd2ac4c2_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) [Almost All A.I. Investments are Going to ZeroSeemingly every investor I talk to these days is struggling with the same basic thing: they believe AI is going to be one of the most transformative technologies of the past several decades – and perhaps ever – but they have almost no idea how to invest in the space. And yet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-151.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_market_crash_reaction_in_the_streets_old_time_photo_0ffb0dfa-f4e0-41b2-9df2-3bf5af5d21cb_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-investment-crash/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-125.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) [The EU Plays ItselfThe DMA is the latest in the series of stupidity that will doom the region![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-124.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-07-10-17.48.43---A-cheerful-clown-holding-the-European-Union-flag.-The-clown-has-colorful-makeup--a-red-nose--and-a-bright-costume-with-a-mix-of-primary-colors.-The-fl-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-clown-town/) [Nothing Boring About OpenAI’s BoardApple’s role rescinded, Microsoft’s role renounced…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-123.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Board-Room-People-Shadows-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-board-apple-microsoft/) [About That AI PC “Supercycle”Redmond, do we have a problem?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-122.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_soccer_jersey_with_copilot_pc_branding_d90fc308-49b2-4033-b977-f89ed28b6762_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/redmond-we-have-a-problem/) [Inventing the Future vs. Extrapolating ItWe predict obvious and silly things, but look right past the big ones…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-08-at-7.32.27-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/inventing-the-future-vs-extrapolating-it/) [Epic’s Poke-the-Bear StrategyEpic and Spotify sure seem to like to taunt Apple in front of the EU…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/07/DALL-E-July-7-Two-little-kids-poking-a-bear-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-spotify-eu/) [Comparing Oranges to AppleForget MacBooks, the ‘Copilot+ PCs’ played themselves, quite literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/07/Snapdragon-X-Elite-AI-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/copilot-plus-pcs-macbook/) [The Real Life Bananaphone!Some thoughts on the Clicks physical iPhone keyboard![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/07/IMG_0899-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/clicks-iphone-keyboard/) [Threads is Thinking and Acting More in Real TimeWhich is great, but one year in, what needles Threads?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/DALL-E-2024-07-04-17.56.57---A-detailed-illustration-of-a-needle-with-a-thread.-The-needle-is-metallic-and-sharp--with-a-small-eye-through-which-the-thread-is-passed.-The-thread-i-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/threads-turns-one/) [Apple Set to be in the Room Where OpenAI HappensApple entering OpenAI’s boardroom is all sorts of interesting and wild!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/DALL-E-July-8-Alexander-Hamilton-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) [Almost All A.I. Investments are Going to ZeroSeemingly every investor I talk to these days is struggling with the same basic thing: they believe AI is going to be one of the most transformative technologies of the past several decades – and perhaps ever – but they have almost no idea how to invest in the space. And yet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/mgs22_a_market_crash_reaction_in_the_streets_old_time_photo_0ffb0dfa-f4e0-41b2-9df2-3bf5af5d21cb_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-investment-crash/) [Talking His Own FacebookMark Zuckerberg takes on the sinners in the hands of an AI God![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/Mark-Zuckerberg-AI-book-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/) ****June 2024** [Behold: the HackquisitionAn acquisition by any other name…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-29-Painting-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/) [The Entrapment of Apple 📧The EU would like Apple to roll out their products, just not their version of their products![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Vestager-with-Apple-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/eu-entrapment-apple/) [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=jpg&ixid=M3wxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDIzfHxhbGV4YXxlbnwwfHx8fDE3MTk0MjAyMTJ8MA&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=2000)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The Netflixification of Russell CroweHollywood has morphed around the great actor![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Russell-Crowe-Exorcist-Sequel-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-netflixification-of-russell-crowe/) [Apple’s VisionCan a stripped-down, less expensive headset save ‘Spatial Computing’?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-5.51.49-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-vision/) [The Race to Restore Content DistributionThe ActivityPub work being done by Ghost and others is getting compelling…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-23-Person-writing-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/activitypub-ghost-publishing/) [Stick to Stick CombatApple and the EU enter the next phase of the DMA battle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-22-An-apple-vs-EU-flag-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-dma-fight/) [The Vision Pro NoThe questions mount about the viability of Apple’s Next Big Thing™![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Apple-Vision-Pro-at-Sea-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-no/) [‘OpenAI Original’Technically, Ilya Sutskever’s new startup is called ‘Safe Superintelligence’ but come on, this is anti-OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-26-Coke-can-with-OpenAI-logo-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/safe-superintelligence-openai/) [AI DIVINENVIDIA becomes the most valuable company in the world![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Man-in-Black-Leather-Jacket-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/) [The Envy of EveryoneA 2017 profile of Jensen Huang is even more incredible in 2024![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Nvidia-CEO-Jensen-Huang-2017-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-envy-of-nvidia/) [Of Tadpoles and TentpolesA 10 step plan to save the movie theater business![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Inside-Out-2-Online-Use-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) [The Problem \*Was\* Jon Stewart“There’s a mantra we all have to remember: Corporations are pussies.”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Jon-Stewart-Daily-Show-Watercolor-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-problem-was-jon-stewart/) [With AI, is Apple Getting the Vapors?Dancing with the ‘vaporware’ devil…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-17-iPhone-vapors-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) [Can Microsoft Build ‘Apple Intelligence’ in Reverse?The countdown to ‘Microsoft Intelligence’ feels on. Sorry, OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-Popcorn-Robots-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-intelligence-apple/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Is Disney Forcing It?‘The Acolyte’ looks to be in trouble…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Acolyte-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/) [Did Apple Just End AI’s First Era?AI’s performance arms race yields to the product arms race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-2024-06-12-19.48.34---A-historical-photo-depicting-the-end-of-an-arms-race-with-a-dramatic--hopeful-scene.-In-the-foreground--old--rusting-weapons-and-artillery-are-being-a-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Why So Siri-ous, IndeedHow new Siri parallels old Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/screen-shot-2011-10-16-at-3-20-12-pm-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) [The Voice Assistant Who Cried WolfCan Siri meet the moment this time?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Siri-Cartoon-Wolf-Scene-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) [Apple’s Artificial Approach to ‘Apple Intelligence’Apple is doing “AI” their way, in ways likely good and well, TBD![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-June-10-ChatGPT-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) [Roaring PityHas the game stopped?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/GameStop-Roaring-Kitty-screenshot-June-7-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/gamestop-amc-djt-grift/) [As Apple AI Arrives, Will Wall Street Buy It? 📧‘Apple Intelligence’ is a good name, but it is a good narrative?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/mgs22_a_pencil_sketch_of_money_falling_on_wall_street_with_ro_c7997b22-4783-4013-b795-fbc738606a3a_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-wall-street/) [The Impressively Infuriating M4 iPad ProPerhaps Apple’s best hardware, forced to use limited software![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/IMG_0298-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/m4-ipad-pro-thoughts/) [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) [NVIDIA’s Last Laugh with AppleNVIDIA hits $3T market cap and soars past Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/06/Screenshot-2024-06-05-at-10.09.23-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) [Instagram Hijacks Your ScrollTo inject ads you cannot skip into your eyes. JFC.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/download-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/cut-the-bullshit-instagram/) [Can NVIDIA Become Intel Faster Than Everyone Becomes NVIDIA?As money pours into AI, can NVIDIA stay ahead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/DALL-E-watercolor-rocket-ship-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/) [The Problem Apple Had with The Problem with Jon Stewart“The Daily Show” ratings surge where they didn’t for Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/06/Jon-Stewart-Article-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/jon-stewart-daily-show-ratings-apple/) ****May 2024** [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?A sense of tension between the two sides is inescapable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-surreal-image.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) [The Incredible Shrinking Movie TheaterHollywood keeps fighting the change needed in movie theaters, but it’s inevitable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/Furiosa-Anya-Tayloy-Joy-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) [Ready or Not, Here Apple AI ComesWill slow but not fully steady win the race?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-Apple-AI-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai/) [The Curious Case of ‘Furiosa’It’s both a good movie and a spectacle yet didn’t resonate in theaters![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Furiosa-Box-SuperJumbo-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/fury-over-furiosa/) [Apple’s Rightfully Boring AI PlayApple is playing catch up, but doesn’t need to sprint![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-May-27-iPhone-AI-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-boring-ai/) [The Overwhelming Chaos of AI is UnderwhelmingThe AI madness needs to settle to reach its potential -- and it will![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/DALL-E-May-23-Robots-Climbing-Ladders.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ai-hype/) [Who Is She in ‘Her’?The curious case of Scarlett Johansson’s voice…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/mgs22_scarlett_johansson_as_a_AI_bot_6336b58e-92c3-4118-bba9-d5d1ce0728cd-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/samantha-sky-scarlett-ai-voice/) [Without Real Time Information, Threads is PointlessUnleash the feeds![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/ChatGPT-Image-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/real-time-threads/) [The Problem is Safari for iPadProfessional users hunt for a Mac-like Safari…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-21-at-11.43.23-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipados-safari/) [Microsoft’s Copilots with Qualcomm...to usher in Copilot+ PCs and take on Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/RW1iUuD-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) [Ovation InflationWhat is going on at Cannes and \*who\* is counting?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/ChatGPT--1-.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-at-cannes/) [Think: ThinA slimmer $1,500 ‘iPhone Ultra’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/ChatGPT-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/think-thin-iphone-ultra/) [(Not) Sent From My iPad 📧The future of computing remains frustrating![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/0dae81233331a4fa5362c506437cea44.webp.png)](https://spyglass.org/not-sent-from-my-ipad/) [MacOS on the iPad: A Compromiseor: You Are Not Your Fucking iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/toast2.png)](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/) [Venu, Hulu, Roku, VuduStreaming services have a name type, you might say…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/venu_sports_logo-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/venu/) [Comcast’s Bargain Bin Basement BundleStreamSaver! I cannot believe Apple and Netflix agreed to this name…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Comcast-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/streamsaver/) [OpenAI Changes the Vocal Computing Game!No sarcasm, just enthusiasm for GPT-4o![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/her-movie-review-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) [GPT-4o & the End of ‘Her’Must AI life imitate art about AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Her-movie-ending-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/a-movie-script-ending/) [These Are Not Two Separate Devices...Apple leaves the door slightly ajar for an iPad running macOS…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/iPad-Pro-vs-MacBook-Trade-Off-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-pro-macos/) [The GPT-4o AsteroidAlexa and Siri look towards the sky and see their doom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/DALL-E-asteroid-scene--1--1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) [The Netflix Football LeagueThe inevitable marriage of the largest sport with the largest streamer…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/NFL-helmet-with-Netflix-logo-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/) [A Crushing Blow 📧Apple needs to read the room in which they find themselves…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-10-at-7.29.27-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/crush-with-i-liner/) [Our Streaming ShitshowDisney Lets a Hundred Bundles Blossom![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/mgs22_disney_on_a_old_school_TV_d6b301a0-1a92-4210-a88f-5c21037628fb-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/disney-streaming-bundle/) [As the Apple Ternus...Might John Ternus succeed Tim Cook at Apple?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/John-Ternus-PatentlyApple-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) [Give Me Back My Sunsets!The time Instagram wrongly banned me and threatened to destroy my life. “Oops. Our bad.”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-07-at-10.09.44-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/wrongly-banned-by-instagram/) [Apple Invents a Laptop with a TouchscreenThe new iPad Pro is awesome. And a bit silly.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/ipad3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/) [The iPad Nano Air ProThoughts on Apple’s “Let Loose” iPad Event![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/mm.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipad-on-the-bart/) [Nintendo’s Bait-and-SwitchWell, they just Osbourne’d the Switch... What now?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/mgs22_a_new_version_of_a_nintendo_switch_that_is_bright_green_1c71ec16-18eb-4dce-9f7d-e865de17104e-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2/) [His Dark MattersPearl Jam’s latest album matters![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/ADc3yRjRzuFLzSZo9njuo5-1200-80.jpg.webp)](https://spyglass.org/pearl-jam-dark-matter/) [May the 4th, Rank the 4thThe ‘Star Wars’ movie rankings in 2024![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Star_Wars_Logo.png)](https://spyglass.org/may-the-4th/) [Dreaming of an ‘iPad Ultra’Apple, let us boot iPadOS or macOS on the iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/MacPad-img-0423-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipad-ultra/) [Apple’s AI Strategy, At Your Service 📧The relative calm before the “AI, AI, AI, AI, AI” storm…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/AI-powered-iPad-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-ai-strategy/) [Won’t Get Fooled AgainSome decidedly unhelpful thoughts about investing in AI startups…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/The-Who-digital-avatars.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-startup-investment-guide/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [What Are Hardware Companies Doing Here?MKBHD on the annoying trend of half-finished products launching![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/05/Screenshot-2024-05-01-at-2.26.07-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/rabbit-r1-mkbhd-rant/) ****April 2024** [Oh, the Humanity of Vision ProApple really should have released the Vision Pro as a dev kit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Hindenburg-Disaster.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) [I Think I’ve Seen This Film M4If you squint, you can see a path to an M4 iPad to boost Apple’s AI narrative leading up to WWDC…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Robot-using-iPad.png)](https://spyglass.org/m4-ai-ipad/) [Amazon’s Potential “Sportsnight”The NBA streaming deal seems smart -- I’m surprised Apple didn’t push harder for it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Amazon-logo-on-NBA-court-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-nba/) [Is AI Spend the New Streaming Spend?Wall Street loves to reward arms race spending -- until they don’t.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Canary-in-Data-Center--1-.png)](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/) [The Chilling of TikTokBan or not, this is the end of TikTok as we know it![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/mgs22_a_169_image_of_the_TikTok_logo_on_a_block_of_ice_cartoon_c1c30dd5-701b-44b4-95de-7907aa2dd41e.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-tiktok/) [Losing Sight of the Vision ProWith sales looking weak, what is Apple’s strategy here?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/1_yzYYlXRa8wxeQcG1NtvKGg-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-weak-sales/) [The ‘Going Direct’ Bullshit DebateIt’s driven by AI and it’s all PR anyway…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/mgs22_two_male_podcasters_laughing_cartoon_93b1ecd5-30ba-4553-b03e-6e3d1a188dfb.png)](https://spyglass.org/going-direct-bullshit/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Meta’s Quest Against AppleCan ‘Horizon OS’ be the Android to visionOS?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Mixed-Reality-Era-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-quest-against-apple/) [An ‘iPhone E’ for ‘Emerging’The case to re-release the three-year-old iPhone models elsewhere![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/iPhone-12-in-Africa-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-emerging-markets/) [A Glimpse Into Modern News ConsumptionAt least via the Trump trial in NYC, which may not mean much -- still…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-20-at-10.55.39-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/modern-news-consumption-trump/) [Disney Invents the TV ChannelWe’re working our way back to the cable bundle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/71f24279-8161-427c-8428-ef1f22c21583-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-television/) [Into Thin AirchatWill the latest social thing be the next big thing?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/AirChat-GettyImages-1334810533-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/airchat/) [The Hard Thing About Hardware 📧Will the rise of AI lead to new consumer hardware?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Humane-AI-Pin-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/) [Alexa, Are We Over?Amazon to Stop Paying Developers to Create Apps For AlexaAmazon.com Inc. will no longer pay developers to create applications for Alexa, scrapping a key element of the company’s effort to build a flourishing app store for its voice-activated digital assistant.BloombergMatt Day End of... well, something: Amazon.com![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/Amazon-Alexa-Developers-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/hey-alexa/) [IMAX’s Big PictureFilm Fans Keep Splurging on Blockbusters in Imax, So Why Hasn’t Wall Street Gotten on Board?How Imax has quickly become the goldstandard in theatrical experiences.VarietyBrent Lang It’s easy to overthink it. With all the concerns about the future of cinemas – as in the actual buildings where you![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Imax-Illustration-Cinemacon-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/imax/) [‘Snow’ Show No MoreGame Of Thrones Jon Snow Spinoff Series No Longer In Development At HBO The Game of Thrones Jon Snow spinoff series is no longer in active development at HBO, Kit Harington confirms in an interview. Screen Rant Adam Bentz We will continue to know nothing... more about Jon Snow, it![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Jon-Snow-Old-Man-Wall-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/remake-game-of-thrones-please/) [Meta’s Only Slightly Better Than Burning Books Plan...How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I. Meta debated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster for AI training data... The New York Times Various There is a lot in this NYT report – bylined by five reporters: Cade Metz, Cecilia Kang, Sheera Frenkel, Stuart A. Thompson and![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Robot-eating-book-painting-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-operation-kick-puppies/) [Where is the Colorful MacBook?I’m not the least bit ashamed to admit that I hate April Fools Day. First, I’m someone who values high quality information above all else.1 Second, it’s stupid. Yes, I’m a grinch or whatever. I just don’t find any of the jokes – especially the jokes by tech companies – funny.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/04/Basic-Apple-Guy-thread-photo-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/) ****March 2024** [Apple’s Vision PROblemApple’s Immersive Video problemOn Thursday Apple debuted its first immersive video since the Vision Pro launched, a five-minute-long compilation of highlights from the MLS Cup playoffs late last year. Without even seeing the vid…Six Colors Earlier this week, Apple finally – and I do mean finally, it took them![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/Apple-Vision-Pro-sports-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/) [A Decade Under the Influence of Satya NadellaExactly 10 years ago I sent the tweet above. First and foremost, it’s wild that it has been 10 years. So long ago, that they were still called “tweets”.1 Second, my god what a decade Satya Nadella and Microsoft have had. On that day, Microsoft held an event in![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/Satya-Nadella-Pool-Laugh-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) [Apple’s Practical FightAt its core, the DoJ’s case against Apple seemingly would seek to undo a lot of what makes the iPhone the iPhone. Which is equal parts worrisome, weird, and wild. And so at the highest level, of course Apple is going to fight back against this. At the same time,![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/Apple-with-Sword.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/) [Let’s Be Real About Consumer 📧The recent reports that BeReal is struggling with either a fundraise or growth or both, is a bummer. I have no actual information about the round or company – nor am I even a regular user (I had sort of been there/done that with Front/Back back in the day!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/04/Hourglass-Impressionist.png)](https://spyglass.org/being-real/) [This is Expensive CoffeeMicrosoft Agreed to Pay Inflection $650 Million While Hiring Its Staff Microsoft doesn’t want its plan to hire two of Inflection AI’s co-founders and most of its 70-person staff to be seen as an acquisition... The Information Jessica E. Lessin, Natasha Mascarenhas, & Aaron Holmes Just to follow-up on![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/93367852-476c-4930-8f17-64017adcafcd-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) [Quick Thoughts on DoJ v. AppleU.S. Sues Apple, Alleges Tech Giant Exploits Illegal Monopoly The US DOJ sues Apple, alleging the company blocked its competitors from accessing iPhone features, made switching to non-Apple devices more difficult, and more... Techmeme Various Headlines With the very large caveats that I’m not a lawyer – let alone an![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/mgs22_a_court_gavel_hitting_an_apple_b7befc35-60d3-436b-8402-5e08e5830a62-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/good-luck-doj/) [Will ‘The Acolyte’ Be Too Zealot or Just Right?“Whatever You Think The Acolyte Is, It’s Not”: Star Wars Series Creator Leslye Headland Revels in the First Teaser TrailerThe showrunner behind the Star Wars Original series, debuting June 4 on Disney+, talks about her film influences and love of Legends lore.Disney NewsKristin Baver Feels a little weird![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/434014291_390220273721791_6383065898831315955_n-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte/) [ESPN’s Spaghetti-to-Wall Streaming StrategyESPN Boss Jimmy Pitaro’s Chaotic Race to Remake the Sports Giant Cable TV’s collapse is forcing the Disney property out of its comfort zone, from hiring risky talent to a streaming gambit that ticked off the NFL Isabella Simonetti & Robbie Whelan Just in case you were wondering when![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/images.wsj-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/espn-plus-plus-plus/) [Maybe Not Everything Needs an App StoreOpenAI’s Chatbot App Store Is Off to a Slow Start Last fall, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman sought to capitalize on the raging success of ChatGPT by launching an app store... The Information Stephanie Palazzolo You get why everyone wants to build an “app store” – everyone wants to be a![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/OpenAI-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/stop-making-app-stores/) [What Was the Point of Inflection?Microsoft Hires DeepMind Co-founder Mustafa Suleyman from Inflection to Run Consumer AI He’s reporting to Satya Nadella and bringing on most staff from his Inflection AI startup... Techmeme Various Headlines So many questions about this Microsoft/Inflection deal. Wait a minute, strike that. There is no deal. Well, there may![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/1709297030-inflection2-blogsize-1000x752.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) [A Bond for the (Correct) Ages?Aaron Taylor-Johnson Offered James Bond Role Reportedly will “sign contract this week” The Sun Howell Davies & Ellie Henman At last, some spy news on Spyglass. With the very real caveat that I’m linking to a UK tabloid (owned by News Corp) and that even they are couching this news with![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/skynews-aaron-taylor-johnson_6494660-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) [Tik-for-TokOnce More With Feeling: Banning TikTok Is Unconstitutional & Won’t Do Shit To Deal With Any Actual ThreatsOver the last few days, we’ve had a few posts about the latest attempt to ban TikTok in the US (and to people who say it’s only a divestiture bill: there![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/TikTok-Logo-on-Fire-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/tik-for-tok/) [For Whom the Tik ToksTikTok Turns to Creators to Fight Possible Ban Dozens of popular figures on the app have traveled to Washington to urge lawmakers to oppose a bill that could result in the platform being blocked in the United States. NYT Sapna Maheshwari & Yiwen Lu Riddle me this: if you’re a Chinese-owned![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/TikTok-Creators-Fight-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ban-tiktok/) [Apple’s Trump CardApple finds itself in a weird spot at the moment. They long ago relinquished their beloved underdog status but now they’re nearing the full transition to “big baddie” in the eyes of many. “You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain,” and all![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/Giant-iPhone-Eiffel-Tower-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu/) [Cable’s Continued CollapseMajor Pay TV Operators Shed 5 Million Subscribers in 2023 - TheWrapThe figure brings the industry’s total net losses in the past five years to over 20 million, according to Leichtman Research GroupTheWrapLucas Manfredi Everyone knows by now (finally – I wrote this almost a decade ago) that cable TV![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/Pay-TV-Subscribers-2023-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) [Apple’s “Oh Shit, We Fucked Up” Epic EU MomentEpic says Apple will reinstate developer account, clearing path for Epic Games Store on iPhone - 9to5MacAfter a whirlwind of events, Epic Games says Apple has reinstated their App Store developer account. The move clears the…9to5MacZac Hall Well, someone got to Apple. Either it was the EU or, perhaps![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/03/Fortnite-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apples-oh-shit-we-fucked-up-moment/) [A Few Thoughts After Dune 2 ViewingsAnd now, I must repent. Last week, after my midnight viewing of Dune: Part 2 I noted that while this new film is great and an absolute spectacle, I felt as if I still liked the first film more. Well, I just watched it for a second time, at a![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/Dune-Part-2-Post-Credits.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dune-2-thoughts/) [The EU Fines Apple Which Apple Is Not Fine WithThe EU Commission Fines Apple €1.8B for Stifling Music Competition iPhone maker hit by first-ever Brussels fine as competition watchdogs step up scrutiny of Big Tech Techmeme Various Another day, another EU v. Apple situation. This fine, while more than triple what was expected, is not what matters here.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/03/Apple-with-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/eu-apple-round-2/) ****February 2024** [Behold: The Apple TelevisionA revolutionary new productivity tool. A truly amazing gaming device. And an insanely great content viewer. These were not three separate products,1 but instead, the promise of one product: the Vision Pro. Unfortunately, at least for now, it sure feels like only the last of those experiences is the![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Apple-Television.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/) [Apple Rings and ThingsApple Ponders Whether to Develop Smart Glasses, Fitness RingApple has explored the idea of developing new wearable devices — including a fitness ring, smart glasses and even AirPods with cameras — to broaden one of its most important business areas. Also: Hear the latest on a HomePod with a screen, Apple’s![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Apple-smart--1--1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-rings-and-glasses/) [Vision Pro’s Inconvenient TruthIf you start me up If you start me up, I’ll never stop. The Rolling Stones song, incidentally the one used to launch Windows 95, is stuck in my head. Because it’s what I keep thinking about while trying to start using the Vision Pro. And I do mean “trying”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/02/IMG_8269-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/) [There and Back Again, a San Francisco TaleTech Leaders Fled San Francisco During the Pandemic. Now, They’re Coming Back. Founders and investors who moved to Miami and elsewhere are returning to a boom in artificial intelligence and an abundance of tech talent. Wall Street Journal Berber Jin & Angel Au-Yeung San Francisco is back! In 3 to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Hobbit-in-San-Francisco-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/san-francisco-is-over-and-back/) [Xbox (Every) Where?The Verge had at least four articles focused on Microsoft’s Xbox announcement last week – there’s a joke in here somewhere about one for each of the whopping four games they’re bringing to other consoles – and upon reading each one, I still can’t quite parse what on Earth the strategy is![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/02/Xbox-Console-with-Duke.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/exbox/) [True Enough❗Warning: Spoilers ahead for True Detective: Night Country I loved, loved, loved the first season of True Detective.1 The second season was, as everyone knows, pretty bad, despite a great cast. The third season was better, but nothing that I can honestly say I remember too much about. The![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/02/True-Detective--1-.webp)](https://spyglass.org/true-detective-night-country/) [Uber Wasn’t Worth $17B. True. It’s More Like $150B. And Rising.Uber Isn’t Worth $17 BillionEarlier this month, investors poured $1.2 billion into Uber, a tech company whose smartphone app connects taxi drivers to passengers. The share of the business …FiveThirtyEightAswath Damodaran One thing I’ve done for well over a decade: bookmark posts and takes that I find ridiculous![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Uber-car-goldmine-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/uber-schadenfreude/) [Period?Here we go again: “I don’t just think that Quest is the better value, I think Quest is the better product, period.” Look, I actually don’t disagree with Mark Zuckerberg’s overall stance here. Meta’s Quest, as it stands right now on February 13, 2024 is a better overall product![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Mark-Zuckerberg-Metaverse-Cartoon-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-versus-meta-quest/) [The Stopgap Sports BundleNow that a couple days have passed since the seeming bombshell sports streaming announcement which would further blow up the cable bundle dropped, a slew of new little details have come along, as you might expect. First and foremost, the timing of that announcement was pretty clearly to get ahead![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Bob-Iger-NFL-Cartoon-copy-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/disneys-has-a-lot-of-streaming-services/) [What a MessEarlier tonight, I joked about Bluesky moving up in my social media power rankings. To position number 4 of the 17 sites and services that I now need to update in order to reach the audience that has now completely dispersed since Xitter shit the bed. This is actually not![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/Social-Media-Nightmare.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-social-media-nightmare/) [The CrunchTechCrunch+ Termination Layoffs hit TechCrunch... Lux Capital Danny Crichton With the unfortunate news of layoffs at TechCrunch last week, this post attempts to look at the why – and in particular, what went wrong with “TechCrunch+”, the site’s premium tier. With the large caveat that I was at TechCrunch a decade![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/02/TechCrunch-Logo-705x705-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-crunch-in-techcrunch/) [Laptop Ban? In 2024? What About My Facetop?The year is 2024, and I’ve just been kicked out of a cafe for using a laptop. Well, technically I wasn’t kicked out, but rather was asked to put my laptop away because with the new year, they’ve decided to implement a no-laptop-policy. So I was effectively kicked out. I![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-05-at-11.14.11-AM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/vision-bro-ban/) ****January 2024** [My 2024 iPhone HomescreenHistorically, I’ve used the start of the new year to post a screenshot of the homescreen of my iPhone. Each year, I’m late in doing so. And each year, I get asked when it’s coming. This year, I’m later than normal in doing so – sorry, I’ve been busy spinning up![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/01/IMG_7834-2.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/2024-iphone-homescreen/) [Let’s Face ItHappy Vision Pro Week to those who celebrate. The device ships on Friday.1 But we can expect the first official reviews to drop tomorrow. Those will be an interesting read for sure. Normally, reviews of Apple products are entirely predictable. This is not a knock on anyone who does![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/01/Screenshot-2024-01-29-at-10.57.13-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/vision-profoundly-uncool/) [Apple’s Deliciously Dripping with Disdain Press ReleaseEarlier today, I laid out why I thought Apple might end up taunting the EU with any changes they implement to comply with the Digital Markets Act (DMA) laws set to take effect in March. And after a roughly 30 minute honeymoon period when folks thought Apple may actually be![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/01/mgs22_an_angry_man_holding_an_iphone_6e0fa84c-ffcb-4b68-86d9-92c4a0d4dd34.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-to-eu-drop-dead/) [An Ode to the Volume SwipeI said my second post would be another “meta” post, but I lied. The truth is that it’s late at night here in London and after a few hour delay launching this site earlier today (thanks for the help, Ghost), and during a “midnight feed” of a baby, I found![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/BlueRedSpy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1616781678220-15abd16b61e6?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=jpg&ixid=M3wxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDI1fHxhaXJwb2RzfGVufDB8fHx8MTcwNTk2NzkxMnww&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=2000)](https://spyglass.org/an-ode-to-the-volume-swipe/) [****To 2025 Columns**](https://spyglass.org/column-2025/) [****To 2026 Columns**](https://spyglass.org/column/) ### I Was Right... URL: https://spyglass.org/i-was-right/ Last updated: 2026-05-13T13:58:35.000Z On the final day of 2024, [I made 10 predictions for 2025](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) that proved to be [quite accurate](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/). So [I did some for 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) as well. But I also sprinkle such predictions in posts throughout the year on *Spyglass*... --- ### Alexa Kills Off Rufus On **February 2, 2024,** when Amazon rolled out 'Rufus', their AI shopping assistant on Amazon.com, [I was surprised](https://spyglass.org/alexa-rufus-clippy/) they picked a new brand rather than Alexa (but guessed it might happen if/when Amazon could get their own LLM-based Alexa off the ground): > With that in mind, I'm sort of surprised they're not just calling this feature 'Alexa' as well. Again, they already have [ubiquitous brand awareness](https://500ish.com/alexa-where-art-thou-17209bda90a4?ref=spyglass.org) there – my five year old talks to Alexa arguably just as much as she speaks to me – so why muddle that? > > And maybe if Rufus is successful, they rope it all together [in a "New Alexa"](https://mgs.blog/amazon-plans-to-reboot-alexa-with-ai-8f68f4134f00?ref=spyglass.org) powered by next generation AI technology. That's the other key here. Apple gets a lot of shit for Siri being pretty poor as an AI agent, because "she" was so early. The one time Apple was [a true first mover](https://500ish.com/siri-already-did-it-9bc61074bec4?ref=spyglass.org) (amongst the big players)! As it turns out, *Alexa was likely* [*too early as well*](https://500ish.com/the-voice-28dd9a7ef462?ref=spyglass.org)! Despite the millions of Echo devices sold, the AI underpinning Alexa now seems rudimentary with the rise of ChatGPT and the new LLMs. Sure enough, Rufus did seemingly end up at least somewhat successful, and now on **May 13, 2026** it is [the functionality is being roped into Alexa+](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/929457/amazon-announces-alexa-for-shopping-ai-assistant-rufus?ref=spyglass.org) – yes, the "New Alexa" power by LLMs – on Amazon.com. --- ### Meta Comes for OpenClaw On **March 23, 2026**, with Meta still flailing around a bit in AI, and OpenClaw getting some clear mindshare, [this was](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) fairly [obvious](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190826703/claws-out-for-openclaw?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta tried to buy OpenClaw, but instead the founder rebuffed them and went to work at OpenAI – [the ultimate ouch](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-awkward-key-to-ai-going-forward?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Seemingly%20another%20damning%20indictment%20of%20Meta%E2%80%99s%20%28new%29%20AI%20strategy%20that%20Zuck%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20land%20the%20OpenClaw%20guy%20despite%20offering%20more%20money...%20%5BSources%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). So instead they bought Moltbook, but that seems like a small deal simply to latch on [to the trend](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/). [Clearly](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mark-zuckerberg-is-building-an-ai-agent-to-help-him-be-ceo-eddab2d5?ref=spyglass.org), it's one that interests Zuckerberg personally. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him go all-in to try to seize the OpenClaw moment for Meta. After all, [if I'm right](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) that the "open" nature of the project will help early on but then hurt as these products mature. Well, that's what Meta is good at... Sure enough, on **May 5, 2026**, both [the *FT*](https://www.ft.com/content/5b48360c-53f2-444a-80a8-f7034750fd62?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) and [*The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-building-ai-agent-called-hatch-agentic-shopping-tool-instagram?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) published reports on such efforts well underway internally at Meta. --- ### Microsoft Shakes Up Copilot On **December 31, 2025**, in [my year-ahead predictions for 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/), I wrote the following about Microsoft's Copilot efforts: > When Microsoft pulled off the first "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" in the form of [their Inflection deal](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/), it was clear Satya Nadella felt it was a needed gamble to hedge against their OpenAI bet, which became problematic after "The Blip". In March, we'll hit the two year anniversary of that deal and Mustafa Suleyman being charged with getting Microsoft some sort of traction in AI. With [the new OpenAI arrangement](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) giving Microsoft more flexibility, Nadella – [now in "founder mode"](https://www.ft.com/content/255dbecc-5c57-4928-824f-b3f2d764f635?ref=spyglass.org) – is clearly going to want to see some results, *fast*. I don't see that happening so... Sure enough, in **March 2026**, they [re-org'd the Copilot group](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/), seemingly sidelining Suleyman after myriad [awkward](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) [product](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/) efforts. --- ### Phil Spencer is Out as Head of Xbox On **October 14, 2025**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20The%20Xbox%20%24360%20Era): > It's all enough to make you wonder how much longer [Phil Spencer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil%5FSpencer%5F%28business%5Fexecutive%29?ref=spyglass.org) – who started as an intern at Microsoft in 1988! – sticks around. On **February 20, 2026**, Microsoft [announced](https://www.ign.com/articles/phil-spencer-retiring-sarah-bond-out-matt-booty-promoted-as-microsoft-ai-exec-asha-sharma-named-new-xbox-boss-exclusive?ref=spyglass.org) the Spencer would be retiring – with the whole situation being [more than a bit curious](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/188635789/ex-marks-the-box?ref=spyglass.org)... --- ### SpaceX Merges with xAI On **December 29, 2025**, looking back on my 2025 predictions, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/): > Will [the merger with xAI](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) help or be a distraction? Is this whole thing just gonna be a part of Tesla and/or SpaceX one day anyway? I doubled-down on the idea a month later, on **January 29, 2026**, [writing](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/): > Elon Musk is [obviously](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) in a similar boat with xAI. The difference there is his profit engine is his other companies, most notably Tesla and SpaceX. Both, unsurprisingly, are about to be investors in xAI. And it now seems inevitable that xAI merges with one of them to be able to continue on in this race. [I think](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) it's more likely [to be Tesla](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Musk%20is%20saying%20that%20he%20doesn%27t%20support%20an%20eventual%20xAI%20and%20Tesla%20merger%2C%20which%20still%20feels%20like%20the%20ultimate%20end%2Dgame%20here%2C%20but%20he%20says%20a%20lot%20of%20things.%20Such%20as%20that%20xAI%20isn%27t%20fundraising%2C%20ahead%20of%20fundraising.%20%5BCNBC%5D) given where the company stands with their core business and the need to [pivot to AI](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/elon-musk-tesla-pivot-to-ai-robots-wall-street-reaction.html?ref=spyglass.org) – [both for](https://spyglass.org/teslas-tenuous-timelines/) robotaxis and eventually robots themselves. But SpaceX's plans to go public with a growth plan around "data centers in space" can't be discounted with regard to xAI. Maybe SpaceX and Tesla can *jointly own* xAI until one merges with the other ahead of the journey to Mars? Well, that merger of Space X and xAI was [official](https://www.spacex.com/updates?ref=spyglass.org#xai-joins-spacex) just *four days later*, on **February 2, 2026**... (Still TBD if/when Tesla gets folded in.) --- ### John Ternus Oversees Apple Design On **July 9, 2025**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/): > Design is a far trickier topic. Once Williams actually retires to start 2026, that team will transition to noted design expert Tim Cook. > > I kid, I kid. But really, it's weird. But it also feels like they don't really have another option here. Though I might note that if Ternus really is in line to be the next CEO now – something that obviously seems more likely than ever with this news – perhaps it would be good to get him that experience? Perhaps especially while Williams is still there to oversee that transition? On **January 23, 2026**, [*Bloomberg* reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/apple-hardware-chief-john-ternus-now-overseeing-design-tim-cook-ceo-succession?ref=spyglass.org) that sure enough, at the end of 2025, right before Williams formally retired, Ternus was "quietly tapped" by Cook to manage the company's design teams... --- ### Amazon Investing in OpenAI On **November 18, 2025**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/): > It also sure feels like with this latest news we're mere weeks away from Google and/or Amazon investing in OpenAI, [completing the ouroboros](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). [Apple](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/)? All totally cool, right? Since this isn't "zero sum" per Nadella... On **December 16, 2025**, "mere weeks" later, [*The Information* reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-talks-raise-least-10-billion-amazon-use-ai-chips?utm%5Fsource=ti%5Fapp&rc=lsmcir) that Amazon was in talks to invest in OpenAI. --- ### Netflix Backtracks on Their Movie Theaters Stance On **October 22, 2024**, [I wrote an entire post](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) around this prediction: > Netflix is sort of like Steve Jobs in a way. That is, they keep insisting they're not going to do something – until they turnaround on a dime and do it. Ads. [Sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/). And soon, I bet: movie theaters. On **December 5, 2025**, [Netflix announced](https://about.netflix.com/en/news/netflix-to-acquire-warner-bros?ref=spyglass.org) their agreement to buy Warner Bros and as a part of that deal, their commitment to theatrical releases going forward. --- ### Yann LeCun Exits Meta On **July 15, 2025**, after some lip-service was paid after the [initial awkwardness](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) of Meta ["hackquiring" Alexandr Wang](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/), layering him above LeCun, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/): > All eyes remain on Yann LeCun, Meta's face of AI before Meta paid $15B to bring Alexandr Wang [and Nat Friedman](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) on board. On **October 2, 2025**, [*The Information* reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-change-publishing-research-causes-stir-ai-group?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) that LeCun had mused about quitting, but ultimately decided to stay at Meta. [I doubled down](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%99%20A%20FAIR%20Shake%20at%20Meta): > He's now undoubtedly getting paid a ton to continue to do his own research (while being allowed to publish it) but this still feels untenable (for both sides). On **November 11, 2025**, [*The FT* reported](https://www.ft.com/content/c586eb77-a16e-4363-ab0b-e877898b70de?ref=spyglass.org) that LeCun was planning to leave Meta by the end of the year. On that news, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/): > All sides can, and likely will, try to save face(book) here by saying that LeCun decided to venture out on his own and I wouldn't be shocked if there's even some talk around Meta investing in his new startup/lab. But again, everyone can see [what happened here](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). And what happened was Llama 4 not happening. And just in general, the sense that Meta, [despite billions spent](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/) and [constant hype](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/) that ["open source"](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) (read: open weight) was clearly the way forward, was [falling behind in AI](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/). A week later, on **November 19, 2025**, [*Bloomberg* confirmed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-19/meta-ai-s-lecun-to-announce-exit-startup-as-soon-as-this-week?ref=spyglass.org) LeCun's exit and also reported in his farewell memo, LeCun wrote that Meta "will be a partner of the new company and will have access to its innovations." At which point I went back to [my footnote caveat](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/#two): > If he'll have them, after what they did to him, one supposes! On **December 4, 2025**, [*Bloomberg* followed up](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/ai-pioneer-lecun-says-meta-won-t-invest-in-world-model-startup?ref=spyglass.org) that LeCun subsequently noted that Meta would *not* be investing in his new company. [Can't imagine why](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8D%20Meta%20Not%20Investing%20in%20Yann%20LeCun%27s%20%22World%20Model%22%20Startup)... --- ### John Giannandrea Out at Apple On **December 1, 2025**, on [an episode of *The Big Technology Podcast*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tluF-sFn4qQ&ref=spyglass.org), [I said the following](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/): > *Say Ternus is elevated to be CEO. Who’s in charge of AI? They need someone to be in charge. Right now it’s been John Giannandrea. I think everything you read and hear, similar to the Yann LeCun situation at Meta, it sort of feels like the writing is on the wall there. That he will probably not be there for very much longer.* On *that very same day*, **December 1, 2025**, *just hours later*, [Apple issued a press release](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/john-giannandrea-to-retire-from-apple/?ref=spyglass.org) announcing that Giannandrea would be "retiring" from Apple. --- ### Apple and Netflix and F1 On **November 22, 2024**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-015/#:~:text=Formula%20One%20and,%3F%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D): > **Formula One** and **ESPN** are starting negotiation talks to extend their deal – with F1 wanting a significant increase despite viewing numbers that have stagnated a bit in the past couple years. Might **Netflix** take the opportunity to [zoom in to secure rights](https://mgs.blog/netflix-gets-lapped-on-f1-baa811fb8e8e?ref=spyglass.org) to a sport [they've helped popularize](https://mgs.blog/the-f1-trifecta-daefba46785?ref=spyglass.org) now that they're actually at least somewhat [interested](https://spyglass.org/raw-is-streaming-war/) in [sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/) – [and ads](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-007/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BA%20Netflix%20Says,%3F%20%5BTHR%5D)? If not, and if Disney lets the exclusive negotiating window lapse, **Amazon** seems [primed](https://spyglass.org/amazon-nba/) to swoop in here, as they tried to last time... [Apple](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/)? \[[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/9e1411f5-2b0b-43f0-9854-fe4662b3e7b7?ref=spyglass.org) 🔒\] On **February 12, 2025**, Netflix, sure enough, entered the race for the rights as [*The Times* reported](https://www.thetimes.com/sport/formula-one/article/netflix-considering-bid-for-formula-1-tv-rights-9xd50qlm6?ref=spyglass.org). At which point [I doubled down on the Apple prediction](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/): > Apple remains [a wildcard](https://mgs.blog/the-f1-trifecta-daefba46785?ref=spyglass.org) given their own sports ambitions. And the fact that their biggest swing yet for Apple TV+, [the Brad Pitt-starring, Joseph Kosinski-directed *F1* movie](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/), is coming this summer. Then again, they seemingly like deals such as the one they have with MLS [for *worldwide* rights](https://500ish.com/apples-messi-strategy-48bd95fe006?ref=spyglass.org). Per this report, F1 would prefer to spread such rights out and Sky Sports in the UK already has a much longer deal with F1, so worldwide is likely out of the picture. Still, it [would be cool](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/) to see an F1 race [in 'Immersive Video'](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/). [And I'd bet that Eddy Cue agrees](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/) (and [don't forget](https://mgs.blog/cold-takes-apple-car-edition-f84709784eef?ref=spyglass.org))... On **October 17, 2025**, Apple and F1 reached an agreement around media right, [as reported by *CNBC Sports*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/apple-f1-media-deal-streaming.html?ref=spyglass.org). --- ### Paramount Makes a Bid for Warner Bros Discovery On **July 11, 2024**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/): > There's been a lot of talk amidst the Paramount dealings that [WBD might be a good home/partner](https://spyglass.org/checkers-chess-and-paramount/). What if, once the Skydance/Paramount deal is closed, they actually buy WBD? Yes, there are debt issues, but a year from now, hopefully WBD head David Zaslav will have a better answer and path there. Ellison has spoken a few times about Paramount+ in particular. Most assume they'll either spin it off or merge it with another player, like WBD's Max or Comcast's Peacock. And perhaps they will. But again, I'm not sure they shouldn't just buy *all of* WBD to bulk up into one of the major players themselves. On **September 11, 2025**, came [the first report from *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-skydance-prepares-ellison-backed-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery-0b921c20?ref=spyglass.org) that Paramount Skydance was preparing an offer to buy Warner Bros Discovery. --- ### Meta Locks Down Their Open AI Models On **July 31, 2024**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/): > But if Zuckerberg takes this whole 'open vs. closed' stance too far, he'll seem disingenuous or worse, hypocritical. I'm old enough to remember when this was the approach Google tried to take against Apple in [the earlier days of the Android vs. iPhone wars](https://techcrunch.com/2010/05/21/google-apple-lost/?guccounter=1&ref=spyglass.org). It started out sounding like a "winning" thing to say, but the reality was [far more complicated](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/09/android-open/?ref=spyglass.org) and [nuanced](https://techcrunch.com/2010/12/26/2011-android/?ref=spyglass.org). > > What happens if, say, Meta has to (or decides to) shift their stance on the openness of Llama down the road? Such things have a funny way of happening over time... On **July 14, 2025**, [*The New York Times* reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/technology/meta-superintelligence-lab-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) that with their big AI shakeup, Meta was now weighing moving to close their cutting-edge models. --- ### Apple Using a Third-Party Model to Fix Siri On **January 28, 2025**, [I wrote a post](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) arguing that it might make sense for Apple to swap out Siri's brain with that of a third-party AI model: > The headline, of course, is meant to be provocative. But I'm also not sure it's in [Betteridge's Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s%5Flaw%5Fof%5Fheadlines?ref=spyglass.org) territory. Because I'm not sure that Apple \* *shouldn't\** consider outsourcing their AI layer on the assistant front to a third-party, at least temporarily while Siri is brought up to speed. By **June 30, 2025**, [*Bloomberg* reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-30/apple-weighs-replacing-siri-s-ai-llms-with-anthropic-claude-or-openai-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org) that Apple was working on doing just that. --- ### Apple Talks to Invest in OpenAI On **May 30, 2024**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/): > Might we see Apple invest in OpenAI soon? I mean, definitely don’t be surprised! On **August 29, 2024**, came [the first report from *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-apple-funding-chatgpt-50754cd6?ref=spyglass.org) that Apple was in talk to invest in OpenAI (a deal which [didn't end up happening](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/)). --- ### The OpenAI/Microsoft Rift On **May 30, 2024**, [I wrote a post around](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) why it felt like OpenAI and Microsoft were on the verge of a major falling out: > Anyway, all of this underscores the whispers you can’t help but hear if you follow any of this: that OpenAI and Microsoft are increasingly at odds with one another. Yes, they’ll still say the right things in public, and even make [the occasional public appearance in support of one another](https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-build-keynote-announcements-copilot-ai-bing-news-2024-5?ref=spyglass.org#a-surprise-guest-sam-altman). But there are billions of reasons to do that, literally. At the same time, the more subtle signals point to partners at odds. And a rift growing between the two. > > All of that leads to the obvious question: if OpenAI is about to bite the hand that feeds them? And what, if anything, Microsoft can do if bitten? That rift not only happened, it was perhaps [the business story of the past year](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). --- ### Netflix and the NFL On **January 23, 2024**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/raw-is-streaming-war/): > But the ad element is the other key here, of course. Live sporting events will help reduce churn somewhat, but the real prize is that these live events command premium ad dollars. And now that Netflix is in that game, well, they're in this game. > > And so can the NFL games on Netflix really be that far behind? On **May 10, 2024**, [*Puck* first reported](https://puck.news/will-netflix-host-nfl-christmas-day-games/?ref=spyglass.org) that the NFL was in talks with Netflix about streaming games for Christmas. --- ### The Ascension of John Ternus On **May 8, 2024**, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/): > Even the star of yesterday's show, the relative fresh-faced (in terms of being forward-facing – and [clearly](https://mgs.blog/apple-brings-a-john-ternus-to-a-press-release-438f9ca9909?ref=spyglass.org) [being](https://500ish.com/the-too-slick-apple-event-70c579ccec0f?ref=spyglass.org) [set up](https://500ish.com/the-age-of-ultra-2b443dcc2e47?ref=spyglass.org) [for](https://mgs.blog/turning-the-ipad-pro-into-the-facepod-58e529ed151b?ref=spyglass.org) [bigger](https://spyglass.org/insanely-great/) [things](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/)) Ternus has been at Apple [since 2001](https://www.apple.com/uk/leadership/john-ternus/?ref=spyglass.org). On **May 8, 2024** – yes, just [*hours*](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) later – [*Bloomberg* first reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/apple-s-next-ceo-list-of-aapl-insiders-who-could-succeed-tim-cook?ref=spyglass.org) that Ternus was the most likely successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple. That notion has subsequently [bolstered](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) over the past couple of years as [Cook may be nearing retirement](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/)... ### The AI Bubble URL: https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/ Last updated: 2026-03-09T14:49:48.000Z Those outlined in **SEA GREEN** are exclusive to *The Inner Ring*: 𑗏 [Join](#/portal/signup) 𑗏 | ⌾ [Upgrade](#/portal/account/plans) ⌾ ****February 2026** [Tasty AIIs AI “taste” a quixotic task?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1123.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-25--2026--03_23_08-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/) [Can OpenAI Build Alexa Before Amazon Can Build ChatGPT?Actually, their impending partnership may start to make more sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1122.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-22--2026--02_34_52-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1121.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [DeepSeek 2: The MovieThe Seedance “End of Hollywood” likely points to the paths forward…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1120.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-02-16-at-11.10.18---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/) [Apple Cannot Be SiriousWhat’s worse: that Apple can’t fix Siri, or that they can’t stop the leaks about how they can’t fix Siri?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1119.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-12--2026--02_08_30-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) [Love It If We Made ItAI will disrupt work. We will adapt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1118.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_54_36-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) [It’s The Thought That CountsThe diminished state of thinking could be decimated by AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1117.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--10_58_44-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) [Sometimes It’s Too SlowWith data centers in space. “For shure”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1116.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--07_55_54-AM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Wall Street Starts to Turn on AIConcerns about CapEx and Claude Cowork…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1115.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-5--2026--10_32_51-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Space Twitter!Elon Musk tries to merge the AI Race into the Space Race…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1114.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-3--2026--02_32_32-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [NVIDIA and the Case of the Missing $100B OpenAI InvestmentThe massive deal touted by both OpenAI and NVIDIA as a landmark one now looks a lot different – unless you ask Jensen Huang…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1112.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-1--2026--03_51_29-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) ****January 2026** [Where the Wild Bots AreShould we be concerned or amused by Moltbook, a social network where AI can talk amongst itself? Maybe both?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1111.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-31--2026--11_40_03-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/) [Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the CowsMeta and Apple have opposite strategies around AI right now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1110.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-30--2026--01_54_51-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) [The Anyone-But-Google AI AllianceBig Tech’s billions into OpenAI signal something…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1109.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-29--2026--04_50_36-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [DeepSoughtA year after DeepSeek’s “Sputnik Moment”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1108.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-27--2026--07_04_50-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/) [Apple’s Twin SunsJohn Ternus takes on design while Craig Federighi takes on AI as Apple prepares for a new CEO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1107.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/tatooine-2-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) [Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even AppleWith competent AI incoming, Apple considers an AI Pin…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1106.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-22--2026--01_00_45-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [An Actual AiPhoneGemini? Check. Chatbot? Check. But might we need an app?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1105.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_su7fiusu7fiusu7f-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) [My Boy’s Wicked Smart on AIBen Affleck makes some good, coherent points about... AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1104.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-01-18-at-10.34.35---PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ben-affleck-on-ai/) [Will OpenAI Ads Click with Users?And will users click on them?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1103.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_n3rihyn3rihyn3ri-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) [“Hello, Computer.”With AI and an appetite for new hardware, vocal computing seems primed to take off, for real this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1102.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a55090e3-ec2d-4f98-835e-0e819fcf17bd-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) [And the Winner of Apple’s Great AI Bakeoff is... GoogleGemini catches them up quickly in AI while giving them flexibility…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1101.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--05_45_28-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1100.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [The Incredible Valuation Heights of the OpenAI “Constellations”Now past $700B in aggregate. Add in OpenAI itself and we’re at $1.5T.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-875.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-9--2026--03_46_18-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) [Microsoft’s Would-Have-Been $30B “Hackquisition” of OpenAILooking back on a mega deal that never happened, but kicked off the “hackquistion” boom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-874.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-7--2026--11_36_36-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/) ****December 2025** [10 Big Predictions for 2026Here we are again, the final day of the year. Just like last year, I thought I’d use the countdown to 2026 to jot down some predictions. Last year, I thought most of my predictions wouldn’t happen, but actually many ended up being at least partially correct, so I’ll go![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-872.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-31--2025--11_53_25-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) [Manus: The Hands of AI FateMeta acquires an AI business model…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-871.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-30--2025--03_09_26-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) [2025 Predictions RevisitedAs we head into 2026, a look back at 2025... 🔮![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-873.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-29--2025--03_43_22-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/) [NVIDIA’s Christmas Eve ‘Hackquisition’ MiracleNVIDIA gets a creator of the TPU, access to inference tech & IP, and stops anyone else from getting such things. All for a mere $20B…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-870.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-25--2025--06_46_06-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) [The AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-814.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-18--2025--10_29_01-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Conflicts & Interests in AI\*Of course\* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-813.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--12_46_38-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product. The![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-792.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [OpenAI Strikes BackOpenAI’s deal with Disney deals a blow to Google…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-774.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_Darth_Vader_coming_into_a_negotiation_room_cartoon_1_989ead01-a95d-414d-bc72-b26deffbd8b4_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) [Meta Bought a HeadacheIs the internal AI pain ultimately going to be worth the price?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-773.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_llama_with_a_headache_cartoon_16x9_--ar_169_--v_7_46ebb08f-7b79-47e5-be04-9824ab200042_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Apple TurnoverThe recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-772.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_apple_turnover_made_with_logos_of_Apple_--ar_169_--v_7_d5ee4b42-f799-4cf3-a50c-d0cca412973b_0-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [OpenAI’s One Battle After AnotherBeyond the Google threat, if Anthropic were to IPO before OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-771.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/sqecfsc98p4g1-2-3.gif)](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [The AI Snow Globe is Shaken2025 is ending with “Code Reds”, “retirements”, new models, worries about old models, new chips, worries about old chips, crushed earnings, stock shorting, oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-712.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_xl1t7xl1t7xl1t7x.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) [With Both Apple & AI, Timing Remains EverythingA discussion that bridges and connects those worlds…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-711.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_x8d9o5x8d9o5x8d9-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/) ****November 2025** [DeepMind Should Make the UK Proud and EmbarrassedA growing sense that growth will never return to the UK…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-710.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_UK_flag_with_a_stock_market_chart_heading_up_and_rock_a3422e40-e540-444c-99ee-f8319ee1eccb_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [NVIDIA’s “Delight”Passive-aggressive tweets aside, NVIDIA has a point, but also a potential problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-697.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_rgpa5argpa5argpa-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) [Big Tech’s Wild Market Cap Ride3 different leaders of the 6 this year, Google soon to be a 4th?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-696.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-25--2025--05_36_04-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) [NVIDIA Evokes the ‘E’ WordBecause they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-627.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G6jU_qpWkAAJ2q5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIAHow do you become a $5T company? It’s simple, really…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-628.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_hammer_made_of_cash_illustration_16x9_--ar_169_--v_1fb7603b-a302-4795-aada-42a5ddf1dfd6_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [The Small NVIDIA ShortThe stakes keep rising for NVIDIA’s earnings as bears & bubbles loom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-629.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3E09DDDE-B86F-491E-AB82-A6CAA7173E56-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) [LLMs vs. the World (Models)A key schism in AI heading into 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-630.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_asteroid_flying_across_the_sky_as_volcanoes_explode__fdd28b40-9b8f-49c2-ab1c-d80d6a8eb796_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Signal: Bubble Watch 📧Apple’s Mini App Cut • Battle for Warner Bros • Tesla + CarPlay • The AI Bubble • Thinking Machines at $50B • Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV • Michael Burry’s Bubble Bet • ‘Toy Story 5’ Goes After the iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-631.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_a_bunch_of_bubbles_covered_in_money_16x9_image_--a_93f70e44-d9e9-4450-8326-243ca00d0201_3-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Meta AI vs. the World (Models)The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-632.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-12--2025--06_54_53-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Two AI Roads Diverged...Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-633.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-11--2025--05_02_17-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [“Hey, There’s a Bubble.”Yes, it’s a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-634.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-10--2025--04_47_39-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) [IPOpenAIWhat might an OpenAI IPO look like? Can the market hold to get them there? What if it doesn’t? Backstops? Government guaranteed loans?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-635.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-7--2025--11_24_48-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) ****October 2025** [Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AIOn paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burn…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-636.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_anptfianptfianpt-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) [OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their StakeMicrosoft signs off on OpenAI’s PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-637.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-28--2025--08_44_31-PM-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) [Anthropic’s Big Tech Strategy Deepens...And by going deeper with Google, do they risk stepping on NVIDIA’s and Amazon’s toes?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-638.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-24--2025--10_09_54-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/) [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-639.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) [Apple’s AI Brain BleedMeta keeps poaching Apple’s AI talent and that’s a real problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-640.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-641.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) ****September 2025** [The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs...Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-642.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_massive_data_center_being_built_out_--ar_169_--v_7_b58eab90-7490-4473-9d35-53b32c5943b0_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-643.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)Look, it’s a massive deal. But right now, it’s all about the optics…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-644.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_flying_out_the_door_--ar_169_--v_7_39d0996e-f5f3-4e07-ba05-02ac299086f0_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-645.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-646.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-647.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) [A Cynical Read on Anthropic’s Book Settlement$1.5B. Damn. Who can afford to pay that?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-648.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Michael-Corleone-Godfather-feature-1-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/) ****August 2025** [AGI is BananasA conversation about Google, Apple, AI, AGI, and everything in between…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-649.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_banana_make_of_electricity_--v_7_0578597d-fc0b-49f1-89dd-b5a1b6fb8a2c_3-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-bananas/) [Apple Weighs the Voting MachineWill they do a big AI deal? Should they?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-650.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_with_arms_pulling_the_lever_on_a_slot_ma_80ef1e75-aeae-455d-8164-161acd9fe9e8_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) [Peering Back at the OpenAI “Constellations”The aggregate valuation looks to surge past $400B…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-652.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_the_sky_with_money_flying_around_--v__54cfb7bc-36a4-492b-8988-66461f5266b8_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/) [Super Ultra Megaintelligence™A podcast conversation looking into such things…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-653.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-6-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/) [The Scale is New, the Idea Isn’tA fictionalized movie about BlackBerry feels familiar…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-654.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/blackberry-movie-poaching/) [Perplexity’s Perplexing and Positively PR Offer to Buy ChromeWhy not offer a quadrillion dollars?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-655.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_You_said_draw_the_google_chrome_logo_surrounded_by_mone_d46bb992-bc47-4496-ac22-cede18afaed6_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) [The Art of the Quid Pro QuoForget tariffs, Trump gets a direct taste of NVIDIA & AMD Sales…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-656.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Create_a_cheesy_1980s_mall_glamour_shot_foggy_soft_ligh_f03aad52-68b6-41b0-9975-5cf67f5d97b5_3-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-657.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) [Meta’s ‘Anti-Godfather’ OffersAs we cross into ten-figure territory, people keep turning them down…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-658.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ozerxvxpu171-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) ****July 2025** [A Personal Read of ‘Personal Superintelligence’Ahead of Meta earnings and with mega offers being turned down, Mark Zuckerberg aims to change the conversation around AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-659.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_with_packs_of_money_--ar_43_--v_7_1606eb42-c07e-4685-94f0-b468e32b9895_2-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) [The Have Lots & the Have NotsA time of $100M+ job offers and also layoffs at the same companies…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-660.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_being_shot_out_of_a_firehose_cartoon_--ar_43_--v__9ed37ac4-4049-4b7c-a2ab-e41df0088f89_1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-661.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [‘Stargate’ GazingWith the original partnership slow to start, OpenAI shifts the goalposts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-662.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MERc8196210c4d1db04614d6db9f3e4fstargate1020-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) [The Endless Rebranding of AIFrom AI to AGI to Superintelligence to... brands trying to make Granular Superintelligence happen![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-663.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_visual_representation_of_superintelligence_--v_7_d8edb2ca-06b5-49bc-8f5a-a59e673a0ed0_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) [Meta’s AI Relativity TheoryMark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-664.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-665.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-666.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google ‘Hackqusition’...A rough few weeks may signal some real talent trouble for OpenAI – at the worst possible time![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-667.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_picture_of_many_different_hands_trading_money_waterco_af8bc984-c043-4956-9b77-7ce521e86dce_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-668.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [Meta’s ‘Godfather’ OfferWhich, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused – so far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-669.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-20.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) [Zuck’s Eleven7 from OpenAI, 2 from Google, 1 from Anthropic, 1 from Sesame... But just as interesting, what’s \*not\* mentioned.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-670.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/16755053_web1_oceans-11-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) ****June 2025** [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-671.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) The Inner Ring 🔒 [$100M AI Signing BonusesExaggeration, conflation, a game of Telephone, directional accuracy, brinksmanship, or all of the above?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-672.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_cash_falling_from_the_sky_moody_--ar_43_--v_7_d6ebc446-3fe2-4793-b80b-893cc4ee9e52_2-1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) [Whittling Down Apple’s Big AI M&A OptionsI’ll bring my list of five down to four…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-673.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) [Apple Ponders PerplexityA partnership is probably more likely, but they have to at least think about buying here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-674.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-20-at-11.39.09---PM-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) [Meta Hackquires a VC Fund“Team Superintelligence” continues to assemble at Meta, but it’s getting even more awkward…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-675.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/metamoney-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-676.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-677.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) ****May 2025** [The Stargate Data Center Layer CakeJPMorgan -> Crusoe -> Blue Owl -> Oracle -> NVIDIA -> SoftBank -> OpenAI ->…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-678.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BMTI5MTE1OTAzOV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDc2OTgyMQ@@._V1_-1-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) ### Sign Up URL: https://spyglass.org/sign-up/ Last updated: 2026-02-23T21:10:05.000Z ## Spyglass by M.G. Siegler Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Sent from afar... ### Inklings (2024) URL: https://spyglass.org/newsletter-2024/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T06:43:50.000Z ****December 2024** [Dispatch 035: On to ’25Google’s ‘AI Mode’ • Billionaires at Dinner • Nintendo’s Switch 2 • Amazon’s Bond Problem![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-262.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_new_year_--v_6.1_cd99c736-12ec-4e34-b209-7716bdce7b3b_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-035-on-to-25/) Friday • December 20, 2024 [Dispatch 034: A New Social Media?No ‘Apple Prime’ • RIP David Bonderman • Cable Is Now Sports • Apple v. Meta v. Europe • Glimpse of Superman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-259.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_superman_flying_high_in_the_air_--v_6.1_9ddec31d-d603-4a42-8982-579889e664b9_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-034-a-new-social-media/) Thursday • December 19, 2024 [Dispatch 033: Streaming Saves SantaMeta’s 2025 Reality Bets • Lego’s IP Problem • Microsoft’s GPU Hoard • OpenAI’s Cash Needs![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-251.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_santa_on_television_--v_6.1_691ea76b-946c-4902-bc43-a03bec8fbe6e_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-033-streaming-saves-santa/) Wednesday • December 18, 2024 [Dispatch 032: The PE Playbook for AmericaApple’s Top 2024 Apps • ‘Red One’ Streams to Success • YouTube AI Training • Google’s Vanishing Veo![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-240.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--64--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-032-the-pe-playbook-for-america/) Tuesday • December 17, 2024 [Dispatch 031: YouTube TV Makes a Costly MistakeMore: The Clock Keeps TikToking... • Kraven the Hunter Bombs • OpenAI Puts Elon Musk On Blast • The Threat of Elon • Meta Suddenly Cares About Non-Profit Structures • Apple Feels Out Folding Options![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-237.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_broken_tv_screen_illustration_--ar_43_--v_6.1_c1a2820d-d152-4f80-95a2-ac5e87c70335_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-031-youtube-tv-makes-a-costly-mistake/) Monday • December 16, 2024 [Dispatch 030: Night of the JackalSocial “Social” Apps • Amazon’s $1M • Altman’s $1M • Apple’s Satellite Watch • Android XR & Headsets![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-234.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_jackal_at_night_--v_6.1_711bdb21-5571-4c52-85a2-10cdb71767c8_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/disnight-of-the-jackal/) Friday • December 13, 2024 [Dispatch 029Google’s Mariner • Google’s Astra • Google’s Agents • Google’s Gemini • Suleyman Podcast • Microsoft’s AI Pitch • Apple’s AI Chip • Meta’s Donation![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-232.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_hand_writing_a_letter_--v_6.1_2c936764-d0e9-4ed2-91e4-8fb5352d0c86_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-029/) Thursday • December 12, 2024 [Dispatch 028iOS 18.2 • Google v. OpenAI/Microsoft • New FTC Head • GM Crashes Cruise • Sora Slaps![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-231.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_green_code_in_the_matrix_but_as_snowflakes_--v_6.1_d470dfea-4202-420b-aba3-e5e9360ecf9a_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-028/) Wednesday • December 11, 2024 [Dispatch 027Microsoft TikTok • TikTok Sale • Google’s Quantum Breakthrough • Apple’s Road to AI • Netflix’s Road to Advertising • Sora is Here![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-223.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--14--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-027/) Tuesday • December 10, 2024 [Dispatch 026Sora Lives • AGI Nears • Apple Modems • AT&T Post-HBO • Trump, Tech, EU • Juan Soto’s Money![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-217.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-09-at-5.26.49-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-026/) Monday • December 9, 2024 [Dispatch 025Tim Cook Talks • Intel’s Destruction • Verge’s Subscription • Xreal’s Smart Glasses • OpenAI Pro • Notre-Dame Reborn![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-210.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_notre_dame_cathedral_reborn_painted_--v_6.1_d8a1a641-f601-4bf8-8b02-4a0026259fc3_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-025/) Friday • December 6, 2024 [Dispatch 024Bezos on WaPo • Altman on Musk • Musk’s Growing ‘Colossus’ • Stephen A’s Deal • ESPN’s Disney Strategy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-204.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--62--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-024/) Thursday • December 5, 2024 [Dispatch 023Inside Intel, Gelsinger Out • Zuckerberg Back in Politics • Unseating NVIDIA • Amazon’s AI Chips • Walmart TVs • Paramount’s Trimming • Splitting the Guinness![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-199.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--13--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-023/) Wednesday • December 4, 2024 [Dispatch 022Moana Money • Intel Ouster • Intel Options • New AI Chipmaker • New AI Browser • OpenAI Ads • Big Money Showtime![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-194.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-12-03-13.01.34---A-detailed-illustration-of-a-classic-red-and-white-striped-movie-theater-popcorn-box--filled-with-fluffy--golden-popcorn--surrounded-by-stacks-of-cash-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-022/) Tuesday • December 3, 2024 [Dispatch 021Gelsinger Outside • Elon vs. For-Profit OpenAI • Elon vs. Enemies • Bluesky’s Opening • The Killing of Libra • More ARMs Needed in Europe • A Few Thoughts on ‘The Game’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-191.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--60--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-021/) Monday • December 2, 2024 ****November 2024** [Dispatch 020Under 16s Social Media • Threads Starter Packs • Live Vision Pro Content • When Mark Met Donald • Cult of the Smart Geek • Amazon’s New AI Model • ‘The Blip’ 1 Year Later![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-186.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1_Qo4bs5fRi7b7sItqnFSqhg-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-020/) Friday • November 29, 2024 [Dispatch 019 🦃Watching the Parade • Paying for the Parade • Pirate TV Raid • US v. Microsoft Round 2 • Trump’s Anti-Antitrust? • Google Anti-Antitrust![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-185.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-11-28-at-2.54.17-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-019/) Thursday • November 28, 2024 [Dispatch 018The Xitter Bail Out • OpenAI Tender • Grokking Grok • Smartphone Sales • Fischer Random Chess • Scott Bessent for Treasury![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-184.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_forest_burning_in_all_directions_met_with_rushing_wat_05b9fe17-36f1-4036-aa32-d05ba63a5fc2_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-018/) Wednesday • November 27, 2024 [Dispatch 017Meta’s Bluesky • Apple’s China AI Problem • Apple’s Chinese iPhone Problem • Perplexity Voice Pin • Susan’s Message on Lung Cancer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-183.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--8--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-017/) Tuesday • November 26, 2024 [Dispatch 016Apple Throws Their Film to the Wolves • The AI Supercomputer Arms Race • Sony’s Mobile Game • The EU Hunts Bluesky • Bluesky Hunts User Trust • ‘Glicked’ Pricked • One Massive iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-178.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/pitt-clooney-wolfs-thumb-700x467-262928-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-016/) Monday • November 25, 2024 [Dispatch 015The Fate of Chrome • Amazon Tops Up Anthropic • Pros Quit Xitter • Brave Powers AI Search • Apple’s Lazy AI River • RIP Enrique Allen![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-166.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_glass_falling_from_the_sky_--v_6.1_ea36e158-8cee-4219-a2ef-ed20b40b1190_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-015/) Friday • November 22, 2024 [Dispatch 014Comcast’s SpinCo Out Hunting • NVIDIA Makes Mint • The Fate of Chrome • Amazon Shows New ‘Show’ • End of Around the Horn • Writing on the Web![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-160.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--6--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-014/) Thursday • November 21, 2024 [Dispatch 013Jaguar’s Branding • Microsoft’s AI Book Deal • Bluesky Still Rising • Meta AI for Workgroups • Comcast Cleaves • RIP Arthur Frommer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-157.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Jaguar-rebrand-2-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-013/) Wednesday • November 20, 2024 [Dispatch 012Selling Chrome • Tech Tariffs • Masa Son’s Bets • Alexa’s Frustrations • Ex-Meta Lobbying • Apple’s Missing Battery Pack![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-111.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--5--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/) Tuesday • November 19, 2024 [Dispatch 011Samsung/Google Smart Glasses • Star Wars Mess • Netflix Knocked Out • Conan’s Oscars • MicroStrategy’s Comeback • Vision Pro In Focus • Saving ‘Inside the NBA’ • Apple Television Lives!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-100.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/skynews-jake-paul-mike-tyson_6749493-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-011/) Monday • November 18, 2024 [Dispatch 010Streaming’s Content Maze • Disney’s Earnings • Elon’s Lawsuit • Elon’s Valuations • ChatGPT’s Agentic App![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-96.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-15-19.24.34---A-dynamic-illustration-of-a-person-throwing-a-brick-at-a-TV.-The-scene-is-intense-and-dramatic--showcasing-the-person-mid-throw-with-the-brick-just-le-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-010/) Friday • November 15, 2024 [Dispatch 009Amazon’s Haul • Zuck’s T-Pain • Prime Video Local Sports • OpenAI’s Operator • The Onion’s Infowars • The AI Wall![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-92.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--3--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-009/) Thursday • November 14, 2024 [Dispatch 008Bluesky Blooms • AMC Spends • VW and Rivian Expand • xAI’s Supercomputer Shocked the Industry • Apple’s New Home Thing![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-90.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--2--1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-008/) Wednesday • November 13, 2024 [Dispatch 007AI’s Independence Race • EU’s Bad Meta Ads • AI Chip Shenanigans • Netflix Ads Religion![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-81.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--1--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-007/) Tuesday • November 12, 2024 [Dispatch 006Apple’s iPhone “Problem” • End of GPTs? • AR in Your Ears • Gemini in Your Pocket • Amazon’s Grocery Confusion • How to Write About the Election![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-78.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Based_on_what_you_know_about_me_make_an_image_about_wha_eb409158-780b-4bf0-917c-92424b33dee7_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-006/) Monday • November 11, 2024 [Dispatch 005Meta’s Pop-Up Shops • Square’s Pull Back • RIP “You’ve Got Mail” Man • Marvel’s Gambit • DC’s Joker • Anthropic’s Choice • Saving Star Wars![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-75.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--51--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-005/) Friday • November 8, 2024 [Dispatch 004Trump’s PayPals • Threads Real-Time Fail • Streaming Clint Eastwood • The True Value of Xitter![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-64.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--45--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-004/) Thursday • November 7, 2024 [Dispatch 003Lina Gone • Prediction Market Victory Laps • TikTok Saved? • Apple’s Smarter AI • The Return of Tim Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-59.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--42--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-003/) Wednesday • November 6, 2024 [Dispatch 002Apple’s Smart Glasses • OpenAI Hardware Hire • RIP JanSport Founder • Ballmer’s $100M Bet on Facts • Netflix Movie Theater Pressure • Apple ChatGPT Upsell![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-57.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1540908390241-82158ab62887)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-002/) Tuesday • November 5, 2024 [Dispatch 001AI for Startups • RIP Quincy Jones • Days of Thunder 2 • Microsoft’s Copilot Complaints • Apple’s Shifting Vision Pro Strategy • A Game of Thrones Film • On 43![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-56.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--37--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-1/) Monday • November 4, 2024 [Markets Shaken, Stirred 📧ChatGPT Search • Apple’s Q4 • Alexa’s Delay • Amazon’s Q3 • Intel’s Q3 • AI Writing Versus Learning![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/11/mgs22_a_james_bond_like_character_on_wall_street_with_a_marti_7fff081d-1225-44d8-86cd-840525970d92_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/markets-shaken-stirred/) Friday • November 1, 2024 ****October 2024** [Tricking, Treating 📧Microsoft’s Q1 • Meta’s Q3 • Meta’s AI • Samsung’s Squeeze![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/DALL-E-2024-10-31-16.17.08---A-festive-scene-on-Wall-Street-with-several-carved-jack-o--lanterns-lit-up-on-display.-The-pumpkins-have-various-expressions--from-spooky-to-funny--an-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/tricking-treating/) Thursday • October 31, 2024 [Short & Sweet 📧Trump’s Stock • Google’s Q3 • Snap’s Q3 • Trump’s Ring![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/IMG_4402-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/short-sweet/) Wednesday • October 30, 2024 [Earning Those Earnings 📧AI Earnings • A New ‘Ternus Note’ • Bezos Reponds • Snap’s Needs • Meta’s Search • An Open Source AI Definition![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/image--31--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/earning-those-earnings/) Tuesday • October 29, 2024 [A Mac A Day 📧WaPo Tick Tock • Call of Duty Streaming • War Gaming Videogames • Google’s Computer-Using AI • California’s Film Credit • WaPo’s Broken Back • Arc’s Hard Spot • A New Apple “Desk Lamp”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/image--29--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/a-mac-a-day/) Monday • October 28, 2024 [Quiet. Thinking. 📧RIP Foursquare • Okay, Computer • Orion Definitely, Maybe • Polymarket Nonsense • Notion Mail![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/image--27--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/quiet-thinking/) Friday • October 25, 2024 [Road Apples 📧Peter Todd In Hiding • Intel’s Past Mistakes • Apple’s Roadmap • 20th Century’s Slate • Apple’s Actual Intelligence![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_road_apple_--ar_43_--v_6.1_8621a534-a48c-4e14-8a69-01ea8bd93079_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/road-apples/) Thursday • October 24, 2024 [Stepping Out 📧Phone-Sized E-Reader • ARM vs. Qualcomm • Apple Intelligence Smarts • Tragedy and AI • Vision Pro’s Halt![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/image--25--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stepping-out/) Wednesday • October 23, 2024 [Ushering In 📧Netflix’s Theatrical Strategy • Blade Runner vs. Elon Musk • Disney vs. App Store • Anthropic’s AI PC Control • AirPods Hearing Boost![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_an_usher_at_a_movie_theater_being_helpful_cartoon_--ar__0c86427e-be7f-4fe4-a504-c4f6dd36bf9a_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ushering-in/) Tuesday • October 22, 2024 [Off to the AI Races 📧Apple’s XR and AI Fight • A New OpenAI Offshoot • An OpenAI Co-Founder Nears Return • Google Play Stay • Trump and Cook Chat • Disney’s Succession![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_a_race_car_with_an_apple_logo_on_it_--ar_43_--v_6.1_4b4775de-b79e-40d9-a1db-ee5371df1116_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/off-to-the-ai-races/) Monday • October 21, 2024 [Smelling the Roses 📧OpenAI and Microsoft • Google Re-org • Baseball • Dune Soon![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/DALL-E-2024-10-18-17.52.00---A-detailed-image-of-a-rose-on-fire.-The-rose-is-in-full-bloom--with-its-delicate-petals-engulfed-in-bright-flames--creating-a-striking-contrast-betwee-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/smelling-the-roses/) Friday • October 18, 2024 [Fourth Quarter 📧Waiting on Alexa • Open Source Meta • Apple Batteries • Bon Iver’s Sable, Uber/Expedia • EU Comes for Elon![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/f3af50a2-85dd-4bb2-b83c-92823124b7a4-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/fourth-quarter/) Thursday • October 17, 2024 [Feature Creeps 📧Trump/Google • Qualcomm/Intel • AMD/Intel • Slow Horses/Apple • Color/Kindle • Threads/Status![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_stormy_seas_reflected_in_the_close_up_of_an_eye_--ar_43_828c30d9-d338-4f0e-839d-521b901849c6_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/feature-creeps/) Wednesday • October 16, 2024 [On a String 📧RIP Steve O’Hear • HoloLens Losses • Satya’s Process • A Cheaper Quest • Saving Starbucks • From Afar • iPad Mini Appears![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_people_walking_on_a_string_artistic_--ar_43_--v_6.1_2e5767f1-0ab0-47ec-abf9-83da9a245bd0_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/on-a-string/) Tuesday • October 15, 2024 [Looking Up 📧The Oscars Look Around • Meta Hold the Meta • Slow Horses Comfort • Barry Diller on Hollywood • SpaceX Achievements • Project Rudy • A Prorated Vision![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_rockets_launching_into_space_art_deco_--ar_43_--v_6.1_e9ce05da-822f-4dfe-9eeb-b101baab4c21_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/looking-up/) Monday • October 14, 2024 [Emerging 📧WordPress at War • Xbox on Android • Tesla’s Timelines • Submerged Emerges • Cybercab![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/2026-Tesla-Cybercab-side-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/emerging/) Friday • October 11, 2024 [Would You Believe? 📧OpenAI’s Money Mountain • Satoshi’s Mask • Apple’s New Vision • Another Wild Bitcoin Story • Public Benefit Structures![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/DALL-E-2024-10-10-17.56.46---A-shadowy-figure-in-a-dark--mysterious-setting--looking-for-money.-The-figure-is-partially-obscured-by-shadows--with-only-the-silhouette-visible--and--1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/would-you-believe/) Thursday • October 10, 2024 [The Anti-Big Tech Drumbeat 📧Satoshi Doc • Cybercab • AI Books • Google Breakup![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/DALL-E-2024-10-09-17.28.34---A-dynamic-and-energetic-scene-of-a-drum-kit-being-hit-hard.-The-drumsticks-are-in-mid-air--striking-the-snare-and-cymbals-with-force--causing-vibratio.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-big-tech-drumbeat/) Wednesday • October 9, 2024 [The Race for Server Space 📧Apple’s Leak • Disney’s Star Wars • Google’s Epic Fail • OpenAI’s Space Race![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/DALL-E-2024-10-08-17.53.27---A-group-of-people-in-an-intense-battle-over-server-space-amidst-giant-server-racks-in-a-data-center.-The-scene-is-dynamic--with-individuals-using-vari-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-server-space/) Tuesday • October 8, 2024 [Laughing Away from the Bank 📧Apple’s Release Cadence • VCs for Harris • Amazon’s Election Night • Auteur Flops • All AI Deals All the Time • AI Summarizing AI • Joker’s Folly • Epic’s Meta Verse![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_Joaquin_phoenix_as_the_joker_laughing_in_a_bank_--ar_43_9bdd0156-bd13-4926-a110-0aa4d2aafa25_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/laughing-away-from-the-bank/) Monday • October 7, 2024 [The Best of Times... 📧Waymo Cars • Gross Movie Theater Drinks • Rings of Power Heats Up • NFL/Skydance Deals • ‘Crisis’ in VC![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/DALL-E-2024-10-04-16.57.10---A-detailed-illustration-of-Charles-Dickens-holding-or-surrounded-by-money.-The-image-captures-the-famous-British-author-in-19th-century-attire--with-h-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-best-of-times/) Friday • October 4, 2024 [So Dramatic 📧OpenAI’s Valuation • Meta Image Training • DirecTV’s Streaming Hub • Amazon’s AI Tablets • More Ads for Prime Video • Microsoft’s Awkward AI • Meta’s Awkward AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-03-at-10.32.40-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/so-dramatic/) Thursday • October 3, 2024 [Augmented Trust 📧OpenAI’s Round • Anthropic’s Hire • Talk Tuah • Mutombo • Character’s Path, Microsoft’s Trust • Google’s Glasses![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/image--14--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/augmented-trust/) Wednesday • October 2, 2024 [I Saw the Colors Fade Away 📧Apple Schooled by Snap & Meta • Oura Rings • Beating AI Bots • The End of HoloLens • A True Consumer Copilot • Goodbye to Some Greats![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/10/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/10/mgs22_several_apple_watches_in_a_range_of_colors_--ar_43_--v__ea6b31e6-f9df-411e-bd87-dc217abe7387_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/i-saw-the-colors-fade-away/) Tuesday • October 1, 2024 ****September 2024** [It Rains... 📧OpenAI’s for-profit path, SoftBank enters the room, DirecTV+Dish, Newsom’s veto, Apple walks, Pixel Fold runs, Mega flops, Meta’s puck, OpenAI deals![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-87.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-30-17.58.38---A-retro-style-illustration-of-a-rainy-day-in-London.-The-scene-features-iconic-elements-like-Big-Ben-and-a-classic-red-double-decker-bus-in-the-backgr-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/it-rains/) Monday -- September 30, 2024 [Wolfs in the Henhouse 📧Tech Leaving Theaters, A’s Leaving Oakland, ARM Circling Intel, Apple’s ‘FacePod’, OpenAI Of Course, Meta’s Cheap Quest![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-51.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--12--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wolfs-in-the-henhouse/) Friday -- September 27, 2024 [The Chaos Ladder 📧Meta’s Keynote, Microsoft’s Consumer AI Attempt, OpenAI’s Chaos, LG TV Ads, AI Voice Hypocrisy, and AI Hardware Remains Hard![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-42.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_person_climbing_a_ladder_with_chaos_around_them_--ar__f6a6c59d-1124-4efb-9910-c1b430ab3965_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-chaos-ladder/) Thursday • September 26, 2024 [AI Day of Demos 📧Meta’s Smart Glasses, Stability’s Terminator Move, OpenAI’s Voices Live, Zuck is Done with Politics, Microsoft is Done with Bad Design, AI is Coming for Some Jobs, Including Some in Microsoft’s AI Division…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-29.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_big_crowd_wearing_VR_headsets_--ar_43_--v_6.1_105a1e71-1260-480e-8f7a-3bcb4da41f28_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-day-of-demos/) Wednesday •.September 25, 2024 [Marzipan 📧AI’s Call to Arms, AI’s American Front, AI’s Audible Augmentation![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-16.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-24-17.45.41---A-lively-and-vibrant-scene-depicting-the-Great-British-Bake-Off.-The-image-shows-a-group-of-bakers-in-a-cheerful-tent--surrounded-by-baking-equipment--1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/marzipan/) Tuesday • September 24, 2024 [A Beige Take 📧Qualcomm/Intel, OpenAI/Designers, Altman/Ive, Apollo/Intel, Netflix/NFL, WhatsApp/Meta AI, Perplexity/Ads, Xitter/Brazil, Microsoft/Nuclear![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/09/IMG_3288-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/a-beige-take/) Monday • September 23, 2024 [The Heat Is On 📧Nike Ouster, iPhone Transfer Pain, Small Strawberry Models, China AI, iPhone Licenses, Shohei the Money, Disney’s Unfreeze![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/artworks-OwOd6kTBcEpoJXxK-NPDbNQ-t500x500-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-heat-is-on/) Friday • September 20, 2024 [Sixteen Candles Down the Drain 📧Spectacles, Vestager, EC Posts, Meta Letters, PayPal Design, Microsoft Deals, Palmer Luckey Goggles, Spotify Ads![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/image--6--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sixteen-candles/) Thursday • September 19, 2024 [Nature is Healing 📧Over-Optimized Apple, John Wick AI, Snap’s New Reality![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/image--5--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/nature-is-healing/) Wednesday • September 18, 2024 [Grift & Greed 📧FX Wins, TikTok Loses, Slack AI, Copilot Pages, JPMorgan’s Apple Card…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy-4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--4--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/grift-greed/) Tuesday • September 17, 2024 [Even Flow 📧Brexit 2, Custom Drinks, For-Profit OpenAI, Amazon Bloat, Apple OS Day…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_3195-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/even-flow/) Monday • September 16, 2024 [Desert Power 📧Apple Ads, Spotify Kids, and Zuck’s Mistake…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a1a2031b-3497-4b82-832f-74bf1f6e6fc6-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/desert-power-iphone/) Friday • September 13, 2024 [The Air Up Here 📧Google breakup, Zuck pod, $150B OpenAI, pricey PS5 Pro, aiPhones…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0916-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/hello-from-35k-feet/) Thursday • September 12, 2024 [16, 16 Pro, 16 Pro Max, A18, A18 Pro, 4, Ultra 2, Pro 2, Series 10 📧Irish Eyes Not Smiling, Strawberry Ripens, James Earl Jones Passes…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-10-17.58.51---A-chaotic-and-abstract-image-of-a-jumbled-collection-of-numbers-in-various-sizes-and-fonts.-The-numbers-are-overlapping-and-scattered-randomly-across--1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-numerology/) Tuesday • September 10, 2024 [Sweet, iPhone 16 📧An iPhone event, Google antitrust, Meta interoperability, HBO Emmys, the EU’s degradation of iOS, and the degradation of the EU…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/09/mgs22_a_brown_iphone_16_cartoon_--ar_43_--v_6.1_24c00901-e991-47dc-8a0e-3ae0d5f0fece_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/sweet-iphone-16-2/) Monday • September 9, 2024 [Whopper of a Week 📧New Telegram Moderation, Boring New iPhones, New Ocean’s Movies, Annoying New Threads, and a New WeChat with Same Old Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/99d0d852-6167-4a6d-9508-bfb3b2fe9453-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/whopper-of-a-week/) Friday • September 6, 2024 [‘Where to Watch’ Works! 📧More Smart Glasses, Blood & Cheese, and M&A History…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/09/UMspy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/09/mgs22_a_football_player_in_the_early_1900s_painting_--ar_43_-_31356aac-dbe3-4dc0-8342-d983159edb5f_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/where-to-watch-works/) Thursday • September 5, 2024 [Bears of Seasons 📧Richer superintelligence, less intelligent search, and a luxurious e-ink tablet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/DALL-E-2024-09-04-17.56.20---A-scene-of-a-bear-aggressively-attacking-a-television-set.-The-bear-is-large--standing-on-its-hind-legs--with-its-claws-slashing-at-the-screen.-The-TV-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/bears-of-seasons/) Wednesday • September 4, 2024 [Spending Apple’s Cash 📧‘Founder Mode’, app-level vs. OS-level parental controls, ESPN’s survival plan, and most fun of all, taxes![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/image-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/spending-apples-cash/) Tuesday • September 3, 2024 [Laboring Day 📧Amazon keeps ‘hackquiring’, the man who built Barnes & Noble, Disney & DirecTV fight, and no executives really leave Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/09/DALL-E-2024-09-02-16.45.13---A-vibrant-and-lively-illustration-celebrating-Labor-Day.-The-scene-features-a-diverse-group-of-workers-representing-various-professions--such-as-a-con-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/laboring-day/) Monday • September 2, 2024 ****August 2024** [Something’s Afoot... 📧Meta AI, OpenAI, People Model Collapse, and NVIDIA in everything![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/08/Michigan-National-Champions-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/somethings-afootball/) Friday • August 30, 2024 [Return of the Rings 📧NVIDIA kills it softly, Intel is killed loudly, happy birthday Buffett, free speech and less free speech…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/08/mgs22_sauron_in_the_rings_of_power_--ar_43_--v_6.1_0b2af7fb-5883-4017-ae60-6e218749ddff_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/return-of-the-rings/) Thursday • August 29, 2024 [The New iPhone Zone 📧NVIDIA’s stock, Meta’s chips, and some Telegram tin hat stuff…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/08/iPhone-on-fire-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-new-iphone-zone/) Wednesday • August 28, 2024 [Feeling Supersonic 📧Skydance wins, Hollywood loses, new Apple money man, wow that Kelce money, man and AI Strawberries -- yum![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/08/Screenshot-2024-08-27-at-5.22.19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/oasis-supersonic/) Tuesday • Aug 27, 2024 [More or Less 📧Apple’s movies, robots, and events -- and Oasis with a dash of TNT![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w256h256/2024/08/Spyglass-Rings---Multi.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/08/Spyglass-Oil-Painting--1--2.png)](https://spyglass.org/more-or-less/) Monday • Aug 26, 2024 [****Current Newsletters**](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) [****2025 Newsletters**](https://spyglass.org/newsletter-2025/) ### From Afar (2025) URL: https://spyglass.org/column-2025/ Last updated: 2026-09-04T10:58:17.000Z Columns published in 2025\. Those which are exclusive to paid members are denoted below, outlined in **SEA GREEN**. Members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will get the full access: ****𑗏** [****Sign up for Spyglass**](#/portal/signup) ****𑗏** ****⌾** [****Upgrade to The Inner Ring**](#/portal/account/plans) ****⌾** ****December 2025** [10 Big Predictions for 2026Here we are again, the final day of the year. Just like last year, I thought I’d use the countdown to 2026 to jot down some predictions. Last year, I thought most of my predictions wouldn’t happen, but actually many ended up being at least partially correct, so I’ll go![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-865.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-31--2025--11_53_25-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) [Manus: The Hands of AI FateMeta acquires an AI business model…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-864.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-30--2025--03_09_26-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) [2025 Predictions RevisitedAs we head into 2026, a look back at 2025... 🔮![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-863.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-29--2025--03_43_22-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/) [Apple’s ‘Pluribus’ SlopAs season one ends, it’s unclear if Apple shared AI slop or if they’re just sloppy, or both, or neither. What if they’re allegorically subversive?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-862.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G85WZn6XMAEUsPq-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/) [NVIDIA’s Christmas Eve ‘Hackquisition’ MiracleNVIDIA gets a creator of the TPU, access to inference tech & IP, and stops anyone else from getting such things. All for a mere $20B…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-861.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-25--2025--06_46_06-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) [The AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-817.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-18--2025--10_29_01-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to NetflixWith YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-816.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--09_15_17-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) [Conflicts & Interests in AI\*Of course\* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-815.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--12_46_38-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Congrats Regulators, You Killed RoombaActually, you just put a Chinese robot in every home…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-789.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-16--2025--03_58_17-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/mopping-the-floor-with-antitrust/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-788.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product. The![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-787.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [OpenAI Strikes BackOpenAI’s deal with Disney deals a blow to Google…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-768.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_Darth_Vader_coming_into_a_negotiation_room_cartoon_1_989ead01-a95d-414d-bc72-b26deffbd8b4_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) [Meta Bought a HeadacheIs the internal AI pain ultimately going to be worth the price?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-767.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_llama_with_a_headache_cartoon_16x9_--ar_169_--v_7_46ebb08f-7b79-47e5-be04-9824ab200042_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-766.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) [Apple TurnoverThe recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-765.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_apple_turnover_made_with_logos_of_Apple_--ar_169_--v_7_d5ee4b42-f799-4cf3-a50c-d0cca412973b_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-764.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-763.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) [Drop the ‘Meta’. It’s Cleaner.Meta contemplates a step back from the Metaverse…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-762.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_Zuck_wearing_a_VR_headset_cartoon_16x9_--ar_169_--v_7_901ec277-bf44-4ef5-b94f-340a13285b85_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/) [Live and Let DyeThe exit of Alan Dye augurs another Apple shift in UI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-761.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/as-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/alan-dye-apple-meta-ui/) [OpenAI’s One Battle After AnotherBeyond the Google threat, if Anthropic were to IPO before OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-726.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/sqecfsc98p4g1-2.gif)](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The AI Snow Globe is Shaken2025 is ending with “Code Reds”, “retirements”, new models, worries about old models, new chips, worries about old chips, crushed earnings, stock shorting, oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-725.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_xl1t7xl1t7xl1t7x-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) ****November 2025** [DeepMind Should Make the UK Proud and EmbarrassedA growing sense that growth will never return to the UK…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-718.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_UK_flag_with_a_stock_market_chart_heading_up_and_rock_a3422e40-e540-444c-99ee-f8319ee1eccb_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [NVIDIA’s “Delight”Passive-aggressive tweets aside, NVIDIA has a point, but also a potential problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-717.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_rgpa5argpa5argpa-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) [Big Tech’s Wild Market Cap Ride3 different leaders of the 6 this year, Google soon to be a 4th?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-716.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-25--2025--05_36_04-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) [NVIDIA Evokes the ‘E’ WordBecause they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-715.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G6jU_qpWkAAJ2q5-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Failing to Realize Why Modern Antitrust Keeps FailingTim Wu is back with another misguided op-ed…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-714.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_kxiozukxiozukxio-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/modern-antitrust-keeps-failing/) [‘Pluribus’ as AI AllegoryNot sure that was the intent, but it feels like a commentary on LLMs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-713.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/pluribus-button-1759334370303-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/) [Google Starts to Bridge OpenAI’s Product MoatGemini’s “Dynamic View” is a terrible name for a profound product…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-685.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-11-21-at-10.44.07---AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) [Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIAHow do you become a $5T company? It’s simple, really…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-683.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_hammer_made_of_cash_illustration_16x9_--ar_169_--v_1fb7603b-a302-4795-aada-42a5ddf1dfd6_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [When Steve Jobs Fused Silicon Valley & Hollywood at Pixar“It’s the story, stupid.” Well, and the talent.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-682.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-11-19-at-8.05.15---PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/) [Judge Rules FTC Wasted Everyone’s Time with Meta CaseHighlighting how Big Tech antitrust is broken in our current era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-681.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-19--2025--12_48_29-PM-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) [Collect Them All (AI Edition)An ongoing list of the tangled web of Big Tech investments in Big AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-680.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_gauntlet_showcasing_infinity_stones_cartoon_16_63064780-aac9-46e1-b3d6-091769114cdd_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) [The Small NVIDIA ShortThe stakes keep rising for NVIDIA’s earnings as bears & bubbles loom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-679.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3E09DDDE-B86F-491E-AB82-A6CAA7173E56-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) [LLMs vs. the World (Models)A key schism in AI heading into 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-587.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_asteroid_flying_across_the_sky_as_volcanoes_explode__fdd28b40-9b8f-49c2-ab1c-d80d6a8eb796_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Let Tim CookMight Tim Cook retire as CEO of Apple in early 2026? There are signs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-586.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_tim_cook_holding_an_apple_illustration_16x9_image__4bdbfe46-63ba-402b-825d-922e5ed54bd0_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) [Group ChatGPTOpenAI has a shot at layering social on top of their AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-585.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dudegpt.png)](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/) [Why Microsoft Pushed OpenAI AsideSatya Nadella’s vision for the future of computing makes it pretty clear that they feel the need to fully control their own AI destiny![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-569.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-13--2025--08_45_02-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Meta AI vs. the World (Models)The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-568.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-12--2025--06_54_53-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The Wearable iPhoneThe ‘iPhone Pocket’ continues a trend…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-567.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-iPhone-Pocket-and-ISSEY-MIYAKE-short-strap-colors_big.jpg.large_2x-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wearable-iphone/) [Two AI Roads Diverged...Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-566.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-11--2025--05_02_17-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [“Hey, There’s a Bubble.”Yes, it’s a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-565.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-10--2025--04_47_39-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) [IPOpenAIWhat might an OpenAI IPO look like? Can the market hold to get them there? What if it doesn’t? Backstops? Government guaranteed loans?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-564.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-7--2025--11_24_48-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) [OpenAI’s Local AI Device DreamsWhat if their would-be AI device doesn’t require a connection…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-563.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-7--2025--01_53_46-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) [Apple Finally Agrees to Fix SiriThey’ll swap Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-525.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-6--2025--01_36_23-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) [Google’s Epic Play Store Trade Puts More Pressure on AppleIs 80/20 (86/14 or 91/9) the new 70/30 (85/15)?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-524.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--07_44_01-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/) [AI is Breaking the Browser’s BackAnd it may fragment web usage across different tools depending on BD deals in place…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-523.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Bane_0020.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-browsers-breaking-web/) [How Low Will Apple Go?With regard to the price of a lower-cost MacBook…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-522.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--09_52_22-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/) ****October 2025** [Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AIOn paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burn…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-521.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_anptfianptfianpt-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) [OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their StakeMicrosoft signs off on OpenAI’s PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-520.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-28--2025--08_44_31-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) [Microsoft’s Halo MaryIt’s starting to feel like Xbox is dead, and Microsoft’s pricey gaming buys were huge blunders…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-519.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-25--2025--09_35_00-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/) [Netflix Thaws Their Theatrical StanceStranger Things. Frankenstein. KPop. Narnia. AMC. Oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-518.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_5a7bwo5a7bwo5a7b-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/) [Some Thoughts on ChatGPT AtlasOpenAI’s web browser enters the AI Browser Battle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-517.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-21-at-6.24.55---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/) [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-516.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) [Apple’s AI Brain BleedMeta keeps poaching Apple’s AI talent and that’s a real problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-450.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) [Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube’s EyeballsThe video podcast partnership may portend a bundle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-440.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_eyeball_watching_youtube_--ar_169_--v_7_e6a927a4-7826-44cb-8f70-14fb3fd740fa_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) [Apple TV+ Minus the PlusA simple solution to confuse more people…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-439.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-13-at-11.31.50---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-437.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) [OpenAI’s Digital Assistant DeviceObvious challenges aside, it’s starting to come into focus…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-436.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) [Sora’s Slop Hits DifferentIt’s about creative comedy creation, stupid![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-399.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_ai_slop_content_--ar_169_--v_7_145f3cbb-2d2b-4461-b215-c60b89a53de4_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) [Apple Confronts the Vision Pro MistakeBy fully shifting focus to smart glasses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-398.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3452d4frkg2c1-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-372.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) ****September 2025** [Thoughts on New Apple ThingsA trip to the Scottish Highlands with a very orange iPhone 17 Pro Max (and Apple Watch Ultra 3 and AirPods Pro 3)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-371.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_4182-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/) [Grading Alexa+ on a CurveHopefully new devices bring a better version, because Alexa+ sounds like a miss for Amazon thus far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-370.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_4v470u4v470u4v47-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/) [One Box Office Battle After Another‘One Battle After Another’ is by all accounts fantastic. The marketing hasn’t been.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-369.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OBAA-banner.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) [The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs...Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-368.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_massive_data_center_being_built_out_--ar_169_--v_7_b58eab90-7490-4473-9d35-53b32c5943b0_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) [TikTok’s American DreamAs investors take over a hot consumer product: what, me worry?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-366.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/9aaf32ad-ceff-4727-b1e6-0d8c8274def3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-365.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)Look, it’s a massive deal. But right now, it’s all about the optics…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-364.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_flying_out_the_door_--ar_169_--v_7_39d0996e-f5f3-4e07-ba05-02ac299086f0_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-330.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) [Apple’s Flight to SafetyA refocusing on design and hardware might be a good sign…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-325.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_The_Apple_logo_surrounded_by_beautiful_design_flourish__054afdb5-c6ea-488c-a7e0-995ca28aa3b7_0-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) [Meta Looks to Overcome the ‘Glasshole’ StigmaWith Ray-Ban, they can keep the pressure on in the ‘smart glasses’ space as it shifts back to screens…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-324.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-16-at-9.22.27---AM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-302.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) [Paramount Skydance’s Blockbuster Bid for Warner Bros DiscoveryOne good idea, so many names…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-301.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wbmount2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) [Apple’s ‘Plateau’ EventSome no-brainer upgrades to AirPods, Apple Watch, and iPhone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-300.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/apple-iphone-17-pro-orange-camera-plateau-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) [Sony’s ‘KPop’ GiftIt shows them a path forward for a new flexible distribution deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-299.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-03-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-268.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) [A Cynical Read on Anthropic’s Book Settlement$1.5B. Damn. Who can afford to pay that?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-267.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Michael-Corleone-Godfather-feature-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/) [Apple and Google Are So BackThe famous frenemies seems awfully aligned again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-255.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-7.19.11---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) [Instagram is No Longer InstagramThe iPad app – 15 years in the making – makes the priorities clear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-254.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MRO_107_FINAL_SCRNGRB1_1-copy-H-2025-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) [Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google LostChrome stays. Payments stay. Exclusive placement goes. Some Search data goes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-253.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-2--2025--11_05_30-PM-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) [A Standing Ovation Epidemic Breaks Out in VeniceThere is no known cure…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-252.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_httpss.mj.run_3ySJFW7Rzg_this_but_anime_--ar_169_--v_7_f460f180-42d8-4821-bcff-f0e51444b29f_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-standing-ovation-epidemic/) ****August 2025** [My Expensive Streaming BundleIt’s less than I thought, but still completely untenable…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-218.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_broken_tv_surrounded_by_money_--ar_169_--v_7_5514853d-d8ac-4c78-ae58-baf6e99f9f71_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) [Apple Weighs the Voting MachineWill they do a big AI deal? Should they?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-217.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_with_arms_pulling_the_lever_on_a_slot_ma_80ef1e75-aeae-455d-8164-161acd9fe9e8_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) [Google Lost a Search Antitrust Case. Will Gemini Take the Blame?As the remedies loom, AI is top of mind…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-216.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_handcuffed_in_court_--v_7_0e5126aa-82bd-4938-bb00-12c06e9e2a5a_3-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) [The 3 iPhone ProblemAn interesting dilemma coming soon to iPhone users: choice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-215.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_hand_holding_up_a_foldable_iphone_cartoon_--v_7_1cbf5c2a-ef09-42d1-9f9c-2985eae01333_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) [KPopping Netflix’s Theatrical StanceNetflix just had the number one movie at the box office – yes, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-214.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/p0lq9155-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) [Peering Back at the OpenAI “Constellations”The aggregate valuation looks to surge past $400B…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-213.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_the_sky_with_money_flying_around_--v__54cfb7bc-36a4-492b-8988-66461f5266b8_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/) [Google’s Distractingly Smarmy Pixel EventNext time, let’s not use the talk show host or infomercial set?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-163.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-08-20-at-10.25.34---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/) [The Scale is New, the Idea Isn’tA fictionalized movie about BlackBerry feels familiar…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-162.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/blackberry-movie-poaching/) [Meta Shoves More Shit Into IGReposts and Snap-ish Maps add new problems & cruft to Instagram…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-161.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_instagram_logo_surrounded_by_sewage_--v_7_6a850c5b-9d89-4f2f-96aa-7be93bcf4e6f_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/) [M.S.N.O.W.MSNBC, peacockblocked from the ‘NBC’ bit, goes acronym wild…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-152.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MS_NOW_LogoTag08-18-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ms-now-msnbc/) [I Decree: Paramount Should Buy IMAXA new idea for a new company looking to double-down on theatrical…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-151.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/21b33354-217f-451f-bbc5-5fb54a55cd2e-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Perplexity’s Perplexing and Positively PR Offer to Buy ChromeWhy not offer a quadrillion dollars?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-150.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_You_said_draw_the_google_chrome_logo_surrounded_by_mone_d46bb992-bc47-4496-ac22-cede18afaed6_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) [OpenAI Moves Fast and Breaks ChatGPTThe GPT-5 roll-out backlash is a product story as old as time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-149.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/46e523e7-0f41-455a-abfb-020babfc391b-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) [The Art of the Quid Pro QuoForget tariffs, Trump gets a direct taste of NVIDIA & AMD Sales…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-148.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Create_a_cheesy_1980s_mall_glamour_shot_foggy_soft_ligh_f03aad52-68b6-41b0-9975-5cf67f5d97b5_3-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-147.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) [Tim Cook’s Golden GiftThe fealty payments get more ridiculous – and embarrassing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-120.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-08-07-at-3.41.17---PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [OpenAI Figures Out Their Path Back to “Open”The open weight model is important but also a bit subversive…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-119.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_open_road_--ar_43_--v_7_f70c237f-54c5-4bce-ae32-991501f930bc_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/) [“Open” Comes Back to Bite GoogleAs badly as I now want to bite into a Chick-fil-A thanks to the judge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-118.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OS_TextImage-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Marvel, We Have a Superhero ProblemThe fantastic fall of ‘The Fantastic Four’ at the box office…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-117.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fantasticfour-firststeps-review-blogroll-1753191165513-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/) [Meta’s ‘Anti-Godfather’ OffersAs we cross into ten-figure territory, people keep turning them down…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-116.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ozerxvxpu171.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) [Apple Backed Into an AI CornerTim Cook tries to rally the troops. Can he?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-115.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) ****July 2025** [A Personal Read of ‘Personal Superintelligence’Ahead of Meta earnings and with mega offers being turned down, Mark Zuckerberg aims to change the conversation around AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-102.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_with_packs_of_money_--ar_43_--v_7_1606eb42-c07e-4685-94f0-b468e32b9895_2-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) [IMAX is More than Just a Bigger Screen, You MoronsMovie theater chains aim to slaughter their last remaining cash cow![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-87.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BNWE1YmVjOWUtYjQ5Zi00YjcyLThjMjktZGU5NDg1Yjk3ZDE1XkEyXkFqcGc@._V1_-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) [Marvel’s ‘Fantastic’ Path Forward...which they’re seemingly \*not\* taking with the new ‘Avengers’ movies![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-86.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/au_movies_marvel_fantasticfourfirststeps_showcase_hero_62124e1b-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/marvels-fantastic-four-mcu/) [The Have Lots & the Have NotsA time of $100M+ job offers and also layoffs at the same companies…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-42.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_being_shot_out_of_a_firehose_cartoon_--ar_43_--v__9ed37ac4-4049-4b7c-a2ab-e41df0088f89_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) [A Mere Thought of a Flick of the WristWith an AI assist, Meta nears the productization of CTRL-Labs gesture (and non-gesture) interface wristband![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-29.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-07-24-at-5.53.54---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-28.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [ESPN Looks to Ride the NFL to Streaming SuccessThere was one key partnership to make the new ESPN streaming service a must-have on day one…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-27.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/01j30pc0kes9ns0j2cqv-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/espn-nfl-streaming/) [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-21.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [‘Stargate’ GazingWith the original partnership slow to start, OpenAI shifts the goalposts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-20.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MERc8196210c4d1db04614d6db9f3e4fstargate1020.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) [The Endless Rebranding of AIFrom AI to AGI to Superintelligence to... brands trying to make Granular Superintelligence happen![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-19.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_visual_representation_of_superintelligence_--v_7_d8edb2ca-06b5-49bc-8f5a-a59e673a0ed0_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) [The Killing of a Sacred Late ShowThe message sent by the end of ‘The Late Show’ was obviously always going to be political even if it was driven by financial reasons…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/The-Late-Show-with-Stephen-Colbert-071725-1-afab56474984495c9f4f1ea70a588f00.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/) [The Great Okay Part IINetflix continues to churn out decidedly mediocre hit movies![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/LTM0085_d0122_1058-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) [Meta’s AI Relativity TheoryMark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-40.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-39.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-38.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google ‘Hackqusition’...A rough few weeks may signal some real talent trouble for OpenAI – at the worst possible time![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-30.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_picture_of_many_different_hands_trading_money_waterco_af8bc984-c043-4956-9b77-7ce521e86dce_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) [Escalated, the AI Browser Wars Have – QuicklyRight after Dia, Perplexity’s Comet is here – with OpenAI inbound…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-29.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_war_between_web_browsers_cartoon_--ar_43_--v_7_379532db-55ed-4ac8-a27e-7639745058b4_3-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/) [Apple is Ripe...for change, as their COO steps down. Can they avoid rot?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-28.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_hanging_from_a_branch_--v_7_396e200c-cd62-4a94-b174-c3bdcb194ab2_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) [Apple’s Formula for F1The movie is good, will the actual rights to the sport be for Apple?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-27.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/rev-1-APEX_Feature_SG_44626rcV1_High_Res_JPEG-4.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) [iPadOS 26 Turns the iPad Into a Sort of ‘Mac Jr.’It’s not bad, but it’s also not really for me. Maybe that’s the point.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-26.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPadOS-26-WWDC_a.jpg-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Taking a Bite Out of the Latest Box Office “Records”With ‘Jurassic Park 7’ and ‘F1’, the goalposts keep shifting as the reporting around recent box office numbers remains ridiculous…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2583_TP_00061-H-2025-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1370.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Meta’s ‘Godfather’ OfferWhich, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused – so far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1369.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-17.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) [Zuck’s Eleven7 from OpenAI, 2 from Google, 1 from Anthropic, 1 from Sesame... But just as interesting, what’s \*not\* mentioned.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1368.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/16755053_web1_oceans-11-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) ****June 2025** [Hey Siri, Time for that LobotomyAs predicted, Apple may outsource Siri to ChatGPT (or Claude)!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1367.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ad98f15-b90d-4490-9630-f46e158cd894-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1365.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Apple Finally Has a Hit Movie, But at What Cost?I mean that both literally and figuratively as ‘F1’ was beyond expensive to make and beyond in-your-face to market![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1364.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/CEX6XFSWNZLNFHDIVMV3YJEEFQ-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) [$100M AI Signing BonusesExaggeration, conflation, a game of Telephone, directional accuracy, brinksmanship, or all of the above?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1363.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_cash_falling_from_the_sky_moody_--ar_43_--v_7_d6ebc446-3fe2-4793-b80b-893cc4ee9e52_2-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) [Apple’s Pitt StopThe drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1320.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f1-movie_review_1750832557353_1750832562273.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Dr. YesWith Denis Villeneuve, James Bond enters his Auteur Era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1319.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a5b3210f-dcbf-4c5b-95fd-dc62fa328410-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) [Begun, the AI Browser Wars HaveDia ushers in a new day for the web browser…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1309.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/b04142c9c497f827215ce0576354f7fac5cb5ab8-2400x1260-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/) [Apple Lives Long Enough to Become the Ad VillainApple pushes too far in their need for ‘F1’ to be a hit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1308.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/9i8yx95v3gyc1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/) [Whittling Down Apple’s Big AI M&A OptionsI’ll bring my list of five down to four…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1307.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) [Pixar Peters OutIt has less to do with quality and more to do with our current reality…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1306.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BZWE5MzBmYjEtMzczNy00YzhiLWFiYTEtNTZkNGNlZWUxYjk1XkEyXkFqcGdeQWFkcmllY2xh._V1_QL75_UY281_CR0-0-500-281_-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/pixar-box-office-fail/) [Meta Hackquires a VC Fund“Team Superintelligence” continues to assemble at Meta, but it’s getting even more awkward…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1290.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/metamoney-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) [Does Emo AI Dream of Mundane Tasks?Is an emotional Alexa setting our timers really what we want here?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1280.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_android_dreaming_of_setting_a_timer_--ar_43_--v_7_aec1a077-8086-4966-8bb3-7d533ee2d21f_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [You the User2012 WhatsApp just eviscerated 2025 WhatsApp![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1279.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/tumblr_ld74smV31F1qbl0ico1_500.gif)](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-product/) [OpenAI and Microsoft Risk Open WarForget biting hands and back-stabbing, this fight keeps escalating…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1276.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-16--2025--10_47_25-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) [Big Journalism Is Finally Losing... ItBig Tech Is Finally Losing A technology landscape we deserve is finally within reach. The New York Times Julia Angwin There are many ongoing investigations into Big Tech™ and Julia Angwin is excited: It’s easy to miss it amid the nonstop avalanche of news, but we are on the![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1275.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_unicorn_reading_a_newspaper_--ar_21_--v_7_3c7df7dc-b40c-4374-b924-912254350fa8_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-journalism-is-finally-losing-it/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1180.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [The Mind-Blowing Mac-ness of iPadOS 26Apple embraces the blurring lines between iPad and Mac. Finally.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1179.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-12-at-11.08.24---AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/) [Liquid GlasslightingThere are no issues with AI within Apple, why do you ask?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1161.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_gaslight_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--v_7_bda60a1d-710e-4aa9-8ff5-44da25df4173_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) [Apple Tries to Hide AI Under Liquid GlassWWDC 25 certainly wasn’t six out of five stars…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1155.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-10-at-2.18.36---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1154.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [Reasoning About the Reasoning of Reasoning ModelsDid Apple just nuke the AI industry? Lol, no.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1147.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robotic_brain_as_the_top_of_a_nuclear_fall_out_cloud__9766c054-f4e2-4f0a-9a8e-d6214680f844_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/have-these-researchers-used-siri/) [Atlas Would Have Shrugged at ‘Mountainhead’Playing it straight would have been a better absurd commentary on our current times than this absurdity![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1146.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ramy-youssef-cory-michael-smith-steve-carell-jason-schwartzman-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/atlas-would-have-shrugged-at-mountainhead/) [Can Meta Make Headsets Happen?Can Apple? Can anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1112.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_worn_in_the_future_--ar_21_--v_7_8fe8289a-5ebe-4d01-bfd8-fc05b090a7f2_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [App Store Changes Here to Stay with the Denial of Apple’s StayAt least for the foreseeable future, and potentially forever…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1111.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-5--2025--09_57_56-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/) [Alphabet is Literally Worth Less Than the Sum of Its PartsForget the DoJ, this is the best case for a “break up” of Google, which won’t happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1095.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-4--2025--05_59_18-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) [The Washington Post’s Plan to Become Forbes, or HuffPo, or Substack, or SomethingUsing AI to improve the quality prospects, naturally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1094.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_holding_a_newspaper_with_fire_around_them_--ar__c1efcaed-6a69-46eb-beaf-5d576bcc8a3a_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/washington-post-ai-idea/) [A Samsung Deal Makes An Apple One More Complex for PerplexityBut it still makes a ton of sense for the AI company, obviously…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1086.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2025--01_33_24-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/) [Around Many HornsAt the end of ESPN’s ‘Around the Horn’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1077.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-2--2025--11_08_50-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/around-many-horns/) [With AI, Email May Actually Morph Into a Task ListThe end of email might look like bots emailing other bots for you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1070.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_computer_to_send_email_--ar_21_--v__70f1b1d6-5b7f-4a32-8df2-a63be7731662_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** ****May 2025** [Profiles in Courage: Apple EditionWhen an event decline is sign of decline…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1069.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_logo_upside_down_being_dipped_in_tar_--ar_169__3738de14-0baf-4ac4-b1bf-8223efea77b7_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) [Apple Veers Into Microsoft Branding Territory‘iOS 26’ will naturally follow ‘iOS 18’ in 2025…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1068.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-28--2025--11_26_01-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/) [Might Apple’s Gaming Ambitions Have a Hidden Quest?A new gaming-focused app could solve one big problem for Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1067.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-28--2025--05_13_14-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-gaming-app-store/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Apple’s Star Wars with Elon MuskTim Cook didn’t want to build a Starlink, but they sort of backed into a weird, weak competitor…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1066.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-28--2025--02_27_10-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-starlink-spacex/) [A Cook In Trump’s DoghouseOne missed roadtrip cost Apple hundreds of billions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1030.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-27--2025--09_18_29-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/) ****THE INNER RING 🔒** [Burning the Browser BoatsThe Browser Company aims to move on from Arc to fully embrace AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1032.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-27--2025--03_07_30-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-new-ai-browsers/) [Apple Still Searching For the Fountain of Good Movies‘The Fountain of Youth’ is the latest Apple TV+ mediocre movie…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1033.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/22cul-fountainofyouth-review-jvzt-videoSixteenByNine3000.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) [Apple’s No Good, Very Bad WeekHard to recall such a series of bad beats for one company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1016.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_1054-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-no-good-very-bad-week/) [Out of PocketMozilla fails to save the beloved read it later service…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1015.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/F0459332-3ACB-4DBA-B31D-C416B52DD84E-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/rip-pocket/) [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1011.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [OpenAI & IOSam Altman & Jony Ive aim to take the AI race into the real world…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1010.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-05-21-at-8.36.40-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) [Google Slams on the AI GasDoes it leave Apple in the dust?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1009.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2025--12_27_01-PM-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) [An Epic Game5 years after Tim Sweeney went to war with Apple, he won. For now.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1008.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-21--2025--09_34_58-AM-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/) [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-977.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) [Epic’s Feigning Floundering to Keep Apple Under PressureTim Sweeney’s insanely expensive pressure campaign continues…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-976.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/13b669_3bd52723ae394f208298f687ae4c3e42-mv2-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/epics-feigning-floundering-to-keep-apple-under-pressure/) [Microsoft Zoom, Zoom, Zooms to the Defensive About AIThis is not such a great look and posture for the company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-975.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-16--2025--11_45_24-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-zoom-zoom-zooms-to-the-defensive-about-ai/) [Goo Goo GoogleApple ceding the education market to Chromebooks gives Google a unique counterposition in the age of AI... (And it may help square the Apple falling searches circle...)![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-954.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-15--2025--05_43_26-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/) [On the Road to Airbnb’s ReinventionYet again, they’re trying things that historically don’t scale. But AI! Maybe!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-955.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-14--2025--10_56_59-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/airbnb-ai-reinvention/) [“Not a Normal Company”But OpenAI may finally be making moves towards becoming one…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-934.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2025--08_01_14-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Digital Skeletons in the AI ClosetI don’t think we want our AI to know us before we knew it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-928.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_skeleton_in_a_closet_--ar_21_--profile_p6bo5ty__b77acc8d-3cec-4664-8b8d-e7996ff219e0_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-distant-memory/) [Hollywood’s ‘Black Bag’ ProblemWhen it comes to more subtle adult fare, good luck…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-932.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1536e092ea651dbc75bf36190c555ea238-black-bag.rhorizontal.w700-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) [Just JonyA couple takeaways from Jony Ive’s Stripe Sessions chat![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-931.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.28.57-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/just-jony/) [Apple Hits Google’s BattleshipEddy Cue’s comments on the witness stand may have been meant to be a shot across the bow – whoops![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-930.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-7--2025--08_47_20-PM-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) [“Get Book”A button to buy something within the app you’re using. Imagine that.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-929.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0673-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-sells-soul/) [Microsoft’s OpenAI Equity Jigsaw PuzzleWith the non-profit maintaining a controlling stake and an FMV floor set by Elon Musk, OpenAI still has a hell of a challenge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-901.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2025--09_28_55-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [OpenAI Attempts to Have Their For-Profit Cake and Eat It TooOpenAI leaves the for-profit path, maybe, with a trail of questions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-900.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_cake_baked_with_money_realistic_looking_with_a_slick__40636e6b-83b4-4633-83e7-2f5c44475e8c_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-889.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Tim Cook Chose Poorly, Now Apple Can Choose WiselyTear down the App Store wall![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-877.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) [Apple’s Low Energy EarningsI guess boring is good in this environment, but that was rough…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-873.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-2--2025--12_15_04-AM-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-q2-2025-earnings/) [Epic Won Because Everyone Won, Because Apple LostAnd Tim Sweeney continues to poke the bear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-874.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--3--1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-court/) [Tim Sweeney’s Last LaughA federal judge just dismantled Apple in the most Epic way possible…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-867.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_tim_sweeney_as_a_fortnite_character_in_battle_royale_--_673ed29c-8a68-48bb-87b9-37e5e34f0ffc_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) ****April 2025** [Meta’s Sloppy AI Social NetworkThe new ‘Meta AI’ is exactly what you’d expect, in ways good and bad…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-865.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_AI_slop_being_poured_into_bowls_--ar_21_--profile_6kai7_3545e1bf-889b-422b-bcdf-0e3ae22758bc_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Hey JealousyAre OpenAI and Microsoft back bickering yet again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-861.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--2--1-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/) [In the Chat Where It HappensThese high-profile group chats are probably decidedly less interesting than you think they are…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-836.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/b40f438579e07a1d498ac1ddea9ab2ba-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/in-the-group-chat-where-it-happens/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Buy, Build, or BuryThe strategy permeating the Big Tech antitrust trials will go into overdrive in the age of AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-824.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_burying_a_robot_in_the_sand_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6__830f7c1e-8ba4-4444-aee2-d4aede5ed07c_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [HBO Became HBO Before HBO Could Become NetflixWell, technically ‘Max’, but you get the quip…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-823.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0x0-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) [Why Buy the Llama When You Can Get the Model For Free?Meta would like their rivals’ help in offsetting their AI costs. Good luck.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-822.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_llama_with_a_jar_of_milk_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6_-_ec765ad5-523d-45d3-b240-29aed38be64b_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [OpenAI Open to the Idea of Buying a Browser with a Few Billion UsersBut really, it highlights that they should (and will) build a browser![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-821.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robot_holding_the_Chrome_logo_--ar_21_--profile_us5zn_81e9f52c-1660-40b4-aebb-2ea3d5784807_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/) [Antitrust’s Hindsight ProblemThe government keeps trying to litigate problems that are already being naturally disrupted…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-801.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-22--2025--02_38_40-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) [The Dumbfounding Dropping of the ‘Google Domains’ BallGoogle’s web registrar was great, so obviously they had to ruin it![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-800.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/65e01a09dbf63b133b5c6606_G-Domains-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-domains-dead/) [o3, o4-mini, o4-mini-high, o MyIntroducing OpenAI o3 and o4-mini Our smartest and most capable models to date with full tool access OpenAI Blog OpenAI I know that OpenAI knows that this naming scheme is ridiculous. No less than Sam Altman has tried to front-run everyone making fun of this. And I know that they’re![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-794.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_me_a_robot_looking_confused_--ar_169_--profile_us5_63eb4da5-c441-4379-9d2a-e586996c2b45_3-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-naming-scheme/) [The Meta Points of Meta’s TrialThe FTC’s weak case collides with Meta’s miscalculations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-793.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_antitrust_case_trial_in_the_style_of_anime_male_defe_397e64f6-1df7-4876-bf8a-a1809bcabc3b_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) [Apple’s “Faster Horses” Fallback StrategyThe Vision Pro and iPadOS may be going down this path…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-764.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_horse_racing_branded_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--p_05fefd99-9dee-4747-b85c-daef8e3d19fa_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Terminating the AI vs. Hollywood TropesJames Cameron has some interesting – and some refreshing – and some controversial – thoughts about AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-762.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_terminator_holding_a_bouquet_of_flowers_--ar_21_--pro_0b735ec9-f3bf-431c-b5bc-fca76515473a_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Failure Has Many Fathers at Apple Right NowThe dysfunction seemingly runs deep at the most valuable company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-760.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_upside_down_hovering_above_a_flame_--ar__2efb455e-65dc-4a24-9739-b0d3441898e7_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) [An iPhone, SwipedThe iPhone was right there in my hand and then it was gone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-761.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apr-11--2025--12_13_33-AM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/an-iphone-stolen/) [A Call to AIShopify goes all-in on AI – other companies are sure to follow…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-741.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_call_to_arms_AI_--ar_21_--profile_us5znn6_--v_7_b1281b14-a016-4a89-82e9-9c02a5b0bdb6_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-call-to-ai/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Trump Throws Apple Under the Tariff BusI’m sorry for your margins, Tim, we have a trade war to win…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-740.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_bus_running_over_an_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_us5_0ff8c8ef-7256-4567-b3c4-98a35d0179f4_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/trump-throws-apple-under-the-tariff-bus/) [Terror RiffsTrying to apply Occam’s razor to the Trump Tariff situation…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-727.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-04-08-at-3.19.33-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/trump-tariffs-deal/) ****March 2025** [The Debt of DamoclesA sword hangs over Elon Musk, CoreWeave, and OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-724.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0986-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Netflix’s ’Electric’ MistakeWhich simply doesn’t matter for Netflix, but would sink any other studio…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-723.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/001_TheElectricState_KeyArt_EO_THUMBNAIL_16x9-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-electric-state-netflix-bad/) [A Spirited Debate Around AIThere are fundamental questions likely without good answers; let’s focus on how this needs to work for everyone![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-697.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-7.11.50-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) [Artificial IconoclastsA foil might be needed for artificial intelligence…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-686.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-27-at-7.13.19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/) [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-684.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) [Whittling to PerfectionA few thoughts on the new (and blue) M4 MacBook Air…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-678.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_7973.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/m4-macbook-air-blue-thoughts/) [The Vibe Shift Amongst Apple DevelopersUser-facing AI is still a debate, developer-facing AI is not. And Apple might be in \*real\* trouble here without some changes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-685.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_an_apple_logo_surrounded_by_code_--ar_21_--profile_b4d956eb-d089-4a3b-a594-065e22b6acac_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/vibe-coding-apple-devs/) [Five “Game Change” AI Deals for AppleA few ideas for how they might (but likely won’t) change the AI equations, fast…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-677.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-25-10.01.19---A-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-person-joyfully-throwing-cash-at-a-large--glowing-Apple-Inc.-logo.-The-person-is-mid-motion-with-arms-extended--and--2-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) [It Wasn’t the Apple TV+ Spend, It Was the Apple TV+ StrategyAnd the hope is that they’ve now corrected it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-665.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/01252024_Movie-Argylle_1_170620.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) [The Case for Twitter Going Public — AgainIt takes some squinting, and quite a bit of adjusting, but it’s there — thanks mostly to xAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-573.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blue_phoenix_rising_from_the_ashes_--ar_169_--v_6.1_2bdf2ad2-6a60-4f00-8831-f567981ef325_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-case-for-twitter-going-public-again/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [My God, It’s Full of StargatesxAI and NVIDIA join another $100B AI data center initiative…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-562.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/stargate.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/stargate-project-rivals/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Hollywood vs. AI: The MovieMy god, the open letter is full of stars -- especially Cate Blanchett![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-552.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Enter Vision ProMetallica’s “Apple Immersive” concert is... stunningly awesome![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-551.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Vision-Pro-Apple-Immersive-Video-James-Hetfield-and-Lars-Ulrich.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/) [Apple Joins the NavyThey need to find the pirate mentality again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-534.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_pirate_flag_flying_on_a_ship_--ar_21_--profile_zegoym_52d79c06-a6a1-4932-988d-ae839a3fa21c_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) [The Curious Case of Amazon’s Anthropic StakeUsing Google’s stake to back into Amazon’s likely much larger stake…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-524.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_exploring_in_the_amazon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_87eed52b-3793-4015-a948-401814463d3c_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [WeaveWorkCoreWeave stumbled upon a model that works well in a certain type of market…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-521.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_details_photo_of_weaving_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--_bab2a17f-aeb8-4bc0-a66c-9f24dc005f07_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Bing When You’re WinningMicrosoft had a window to win consumer AI — and perhaps the future of search![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-518.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/51VyzojTrcL._UF1000-1000_QL80_-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Did Apple Flub an AI Feature, Or Are They Blowing the AI Moment?Sometimes a delay is just a delay. Sometimes it’s not…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-520.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_holding_an_apple_logo_in_its_hand_--ar_21_--pro_39c1bfb8-fe36-49dd-91e0-b60997633729_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) [It’s the End of the Web as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)AI is disrupting web search and publishing, perhaps for the better…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-517.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_stack_of_newspapers_on_fire_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_c4decf79-2261-4087-9211-ca7e93b379eb_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) [Thin Is In Before a Foldable Is OutGaming out some ‘iPhone Air’ and ‘iPhone Fold’ options…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-502.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_iphone_that_folds_like_a_book_--ar_21_--profil_2bb22a01-1fbc-4da3-afb3-40b387e43d7f_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The OpenAI ConstellationsThe out-of-this-world funding numbers in OpenAI’s orbit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-498.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_space_with_money_signs_--ar_21_--prof_21804d63-0790-4c9f-aa93-88c57c811c4c_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the/) [Is Amazon Writing Checks that Alexa+ Can’t Cash?There’s a lot of vagaries and obfuscation around this launch…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-494.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/assets.aboutamazon.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPTNot forever, but for now. Until a new, better Siri is actually ready to roll — which may be \*years\* away…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-490.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_with_an_apple_logo_and_a_scientist_opening_up_i_dbf83ee0-18c0-48e0-8074-7e3f2a9c4212_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) ****February 2025** [OpenAI’s EQ Upgrade to Hold Us Over to the IQ UpgradeThey’re clearly angling GPT-4.5 as being an emotionally intelligent update about getting the “vibes” right![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-486.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_emotional_robot_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_5d849d55-21f1-4f76-a57d-98f93272aeda_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-gpt-45/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Meta Is Unbundling... AgainThe strategy behind the stand-alone apps for Reels and Meta AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-485.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_facebook_icon_unpacking_a_giant_box_of_stuff_throwing_9466aef8-0e0c-412d-8076-73fd5c8720b0_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) [Alexa, I’m SkepticalAlexa+ brings a lot of table-stakes stuff to the table in 2025…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-470.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-26-at-8.21.12-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Early Provocative AI Chatbots, RevisitedTwo years ago, we were up in arms over Bing’s AI “Sydney”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-471.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dolores-1920-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) [Rewatching ‘A.I.’ in the Age of AIThe 2001 film holds up intelligently on some points, artificially on others![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-463.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ai_1280x720.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-movie-ai/) [Somehow, Star Wars ReturnedWith Kathleen Kennedy set to retire, the Force awakens again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-462.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_bunch_of_people_fighting_with_lightsabers_cartoon_--a_10417081-f699-40c5-aa1b-e5775e906abe_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) [The Art of the Old DealTim Cook calls up some old plays to deflect Trump’s tariffs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-458.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-5.20.51-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/) [Microsoft Outsources OpenAI’s Ambitions to SoftBankThere’s a new capital partner in town as they march towards ‘superintelligence’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-455.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_two_men_passing_a_buck_cartoon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoym_8ba66d6f-5b36-4bc4-b421-119a80ade3b6_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) [ESPN Balks, MLB WalksAnd it’s partially Apple’s fault!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-449.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_baseball_pitcher_throwing_a_baseball_surrounded_by_co_220f9340-2f23-46ab-96d2-222f830081b4_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/espn-balks-mlb-walks/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Live and Let BuyJames Bond now fully works for Amazon. Die Another Same Day Delivery?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-448.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_james_bond_delivering_a_package_cartoon_--ar_21_--profi_cc863c9f-e2bf-40e8-bc04-ccf5aefb40f3_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) [Majorana’s MaskA tale of two trillion-dollar companies…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-447.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/two-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-majorana/) [Apple Sherlocks the iPhone 16The new iPhone 16e sounds great -- at a far cheaper price…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-446.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-19-at-7.19.34-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-sherlocks-the-iphone-16/) [Oh, the Humane-ityHumane’s bad strategy exacerbated their bad timing with the Ai Pin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-435.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/humane-ai-pin-wearable-projector-smartphone-designboom-01.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The One AI to Rule Them AllTrying to grok the outlook for general-purpose consumer AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-434.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--82--3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) [The AI Will Come Out TomorrowAlexa and Siri struggle to get out the door in the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-433.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-16-15.50.37---A-group-of-frustrated-people-yelling-at-an-Amazon-Echo-device-in-a-modern-living-room.-Their-facial-expressions-show-anger-and-confusion--with-one-per-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) [The Age of UltracrepidariansRight or wrong, just say it loud, with conviction — just like AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-424.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_at_a_podium_speaking_to_a_large_crowd_gathered__88492b09-505a-4811-a4d4-10ae1a2dd1d1_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/) [The Great AI UI UnificationChatGPT starts cleaning up the cruft…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-421.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-14-at-4.09.51-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) [Amazon & ESPN’s Sports Streaming Collision CourseWith Netflix drafting behind them…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-411.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_F1_cars_with_the_logos_of_Amazon_and_ESPN_and_Netflix_a_4f948e35-d214-4a92-ba80-8ac8050bcc7b_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Liquidity NowA new standard model for VCs and secondaries…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-401.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_wave_of_money_vector_art_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_--_bc633d2d-0735-486b-80a8-83dc03664f7c_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/vc-secondary-liquidity/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [What You DeepSeek Is Seeking YouTwo weeks after the latest AI panic, has anything really changed?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-397.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_meditation_black_silhouette_bright_colors_with_a_subt_546f2e6e-6578-4c05-966e-16f4fdd808c4_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/) [Observations About Sam Altman’s ObservationsHe’s seeking for something deep…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-388.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_painting_of_a_man_wandering_forward_into_a_field_of_t_2ae99a1d-fdbc-408c-bee5-85c148a658f4_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Apple’s Elegantly Expressive Pixar LampForget glasses, Apple’s Next Big Thing™ may be a robot…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-381.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/lam-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Earth to Lina KhanNearly every point in her NYT op-ed is wrong![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-377.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_earth_in_blue_and_green_with_a_person_floating_in_s_788062cb-35cb-4d1c-8c48-9728c314205c_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/) [Growing Up AI-FirstPondering how kids might navigate the world post-ChatGPT![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-376.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hero-image.fill.size_1248x702.v1734033122.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) [FaceFeedHow Mark Zuckerberg might rejuvenate Facebook with a feed of Meta content, a Fediverse twist, and a splash of AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-368.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_face_with_a_feed_of_information_running_on_top_of_it__328d3603-5953-40e0-805a-ebfb0a76bf13_2-b943166712745797.png)](https://spyglass.org/facefeed-facebook-feed-fediverse/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [The IPOpenAIA step-back way to frame OpenAI’s rumored mega raise…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-367.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-03-17.49.44---A-futuristic-scene-with-robots-jumping-to-grab-flying-money-in-the-air.-The-robots-are-sleek-and-humanoid--with-metallic-bodies-and-glowing-eyes.-The-.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) ****January 2025** [Apple’s Record-Breaking Quarter Was SO BORINGApple wins as the AI tortoise in a field of scared hares -- for now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-365.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_falling_all_around_the_apple_logo_--ar_21_--profi_1cc2a89d-6b1e-4d97-9c2d-395334b1df1c_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-earnings-q1-2025/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [SoftBank, Indeed10 thoughts on OpenAI’s would-be new massive funding round…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-361.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--79-.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) [Post-Explosion, Seeking the DeepSeek FalloutA guess: DeepSeek itself will matter less than the reaction to it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-357.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_nuclear_blast_with_digital_bits_--ar_21_--profile_zeg_f7dcabeb-2e9f-46f9-a963-7e94d70fb2be_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Should Apple Switch Off Siri?In our Age of AI, Siri continues to embarrass Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-352.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--74--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [AI, Uh, Finds a WayHas DeepSeek changed the AI game or just some equations?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-347.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) [OpenAI’s ‘Operator’ Shows Why They’ll Build a Web BrowserTo me, the most interesting aspect of OpenAI’s new ‘Operator’ product – their first real agent – is not what it can do, but how it does it. Unlike the early iterations of similar products from Anthropic and Google, ‘Operator’ doesn’t take over your computer, it outsources the work you want to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-338.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_httpss.mj.runUppJx1mo6_w_a_robot_using_a_computer_--ar__9fec8e72-50d6-4d70-90ae-fb8366bc5c57_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/) [Meta’s March to Make the iPhone ‘The Thing That Gets Us to the Thing’The company will build anything and everything to end the smartphone era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-334.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/599220.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) [One Year UndercoverOnwards to year two of Spyglass…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-333.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_james_bond_from_behind_drinking_a_pint_in_a_pub_in_73fdf78c-dd69-4236-b4f3-7dd0b862c818_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/one-year-undercover/) [‘Stargate’ Squares Some AI CirclesOpenAI, Microsoft, SoftBank, Oracle, Trump, MGX, ARM, and NVIDIA all get double-dip wins in the announcement![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-332.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Stargate-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) [My 2025 iPhone HomescreenSome actual shifts thanks to AI and social stratification…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-330.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_6754-2-1.PNG)](https://spyglass.org/2025-iphone-homescreen/) [TrickTokWith the TikTok ban, the Trump administration starts dealing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-329.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--72--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tricktok/) [2 Switch 2 Similar?Nintendo’s Switch 2 strategy seems conservative, perhaps smartly![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-320.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-01-16-at-7.28.32-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2-similar/) [With the Tok Tikking, Twitter Talk Makes Some Sense...China selling TikTok to Elon Musk would be quite the deal. You know who loves deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-319.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-01-14-12.22.40---A-detailed-drawing-of-an-onion-with-many-layers--sliced-open-to-reveal-its-intricate-concentric-rings.-The-illustration-is-hand-drawn-with-fine-lines--3-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/twittertok/) [May Your First Startup Be A Masculine StartupMark Zuckerberg’s heel turn this past week has been all sorts of fascinating.1 For one thing, I don’t think it’s all an act. I think it’s likely a short-sighted and misguided maneuver born out of years of various frustrations, but I don’t think it’s just to curry favor with![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-318.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_bro_dripped_out_with_a_nice_double_chain_big_watch_sung_953c0acb-6681-4c15-b5da-ac37e45bd642_0-4-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/do-you-even-tech-bro/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [About-Face(book)Mark Zuckerberg’s new stance on speech can be both real and really political![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-306.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_mark_zuckerberg_captured_from_behind_giving_a_speech_in_d6e4d8a3-b9ad-45b6-be10-606431284241_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-speech-about-face-book/) [Venu, Vidi, ViciDisney aims to conquer streaming sports with endless confusing options![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-298.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_mickey_mouse_throwing_a_baseball_through_a_TV_smashing__5b2ae3c2-bcd9-462b-9376-ae0bfe274688_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/venu-vidi-vici-fubo/) [The Witching Hour‘Dune: Prophecy’ fails to live up to its legacy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-297.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dune-prophecy-emily-watson-olivia-williams-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/dune-prophecy-thoughts/) [$1M Knee PadsThere’s a cost to be the boss -- and to bend the knee…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-296.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ndbb96k-3-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) ****The Inner Ring 🔒** [Meta’s Next Big BlunderSocial AI “characters” are so obviously and hilariously going to fail![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-288.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/) [Apple Comes to Google’s Defense, But the OppositeEddy Cue does declare that Apple must intervene in Google’s antitrust case![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-287.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/5ff819c2-2d75-4693-ab37-05eee6e92db2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/appl/) [****2024 Columns Here**](https://spyglass.org/column-2024/) [****To 2026 Columns**](https://spyglass.org/column/) ### Inklings (2025) URL: https://spyglass.org/newsletter-2025/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T06:37:12.000Z ****December 2025** [Signal: End of the 2025 Line 📧TikTok Signs • Waymo $100B • OpenAI $830B • FIFA’s Netflix Game • Yann Lecun Raising • Paramount Rejected Again • CoreWeave Scale • Buzzing the Watertower![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-812.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-19--2025--05_52_32-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/) Friday • December 19, 2025 [Signal: Grabbing the Popcorn 📧Anthropic’s TPU Buy • GPT-5.2 • Apple’s ‘HomePad’ • Top 2025 Apps • Data Centers in Space • 5D Chess vs. Tiddlywinks • Deal Swag![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-781.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-12--2025--07_22_59-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/) Friday • December 12, 2025 [Signal: Streaming Time is a Flat Circle 📧Meta & World Models • EU Strikes Back • Disney’s CEO Race • Michael Burry’s Blog • Anthropic’s Shots at OpenAI • OpenAI’s Spend![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-748.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-5--2025--06_13_46-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/) Friday • December 5, 2025 ****November 2025** [Signal: Blue Binge 📧Sutskever on Dwarkesh • OpenAI’s Prototype • Netflix + WB? • HBO Back as HBO • iOS ‘Snow Leopard’ • OpenAI CEO • Data Center Debt![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-705.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_zc5w2dzc5w2dzc5w-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-blue-binge/) Friday • November 28, 2025 [Signal: Google Roars Back 📧World Models • Netflix’s Theatrical Bid • Perplexity’s Mobile Browser • Streaming Pause Ads • Sam Altman’s ‘Rough Vibes’ Memo • Wokesters • Zelda Movie![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-686.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_y7r86dy7r86dy7r8-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/) Friday • November 21, 2025 [Signal: Bubble Watch 📧Apple’s Mini App Cut • Battle for Warner Bros • Tesla + CarPlay • The AI Bubble • Thinking Machines at $50B • Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV • Michael Burry’s Bubble Bet • ‘Toy Story 5’ Goes After the iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-562.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_a_bunch_of_bubbles_covered_in_money_16x9_image_--a_93f70e44-d9e9-4450-8326-243ca00d0201_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/) Friday • November 14, 2025 ****October 2025** [Signal: Lego Heads 📧Apple & F1 • Karpathy on Dwarkesh Pod • Xitter Rethinks Links • Meta’s Private Capital AI Play • iPhone Air Sales • Cue’s Streaming Content Critique![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-449.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/17xp-lego-jumbo-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/) Monday • October 20, 2025 [Signal: How You Like Them Apples? 📧Touchscreen MacBook Pros • Oracle’s Margins • Hollywood Has No Idea What To Do About AI • Fracking Data Centers • Apple TV + Peacock • $1 Steve Jobs Coin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-447.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0bec94d9-0769-47a6-9ed2-82f7e1bc226e-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/) Friday • October 17, 2025 [Signal: An M5 Smack in the Face 📧Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube • Eddy Cue on Apple’s Hollywood Goals • Stolen iPhones • ChatGPT Is Bringing Sexy Back • Apple’s Robotic Updates • Stargate Competitor Buys Big Data Center Company • A Tim Cook Labubu!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-435.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Vision-Pro-Dual-Knit-Band-251015_big.jpg.large_2x-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/) Wednesday • October 15, 2025 [Signal: Apple TV++ for You++ 📧OpenAI/Broadcom Deal • TBPN’s Rise • Is Xbox Imploding? • RIP TiVo • Meta’s Ray-Ban Display Review • AI’s Use in Comics![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-425.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/appl-tv-icon-26-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/) Tuesday • October 14, 2025 [Signal: One Subversion After Another 📧Apple’s Pivot from ‘Vision Air’ • M5 Devices • ‘Tron 3’ Bombs at Box Office • Meta Poaches Thinking Machines Co-Founder • Warner Bros Rebuffs Paramount Offer • OpenAI’s Constantly Evolving Cap Table![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-420.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/619ffc07-fa12-41c8-a8c4-8f56598dd00a-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/) Monday • October 13, 2025 [Signal: Smothering Smoldering Sora 📧Apple’s NBA Vision • Making Intel Great Again • The Race to Build ‘Colossus 2’ • Meta’s Oddly Aggressive AI PR Approach • Apple’s Watch Re-Org • Amazon Shoves Ads In Your Face![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-417.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-10--2025--04_00_34-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/) Friday • October 10, 2025 [Signal: Google Had, Lost, and Found AI 📧Sora’s Surging Downloads • Sora’s Hollywood Warnings • Microsoft Trying Health as a Consumer AI Inroads • Netflix Takes On the Gaming Consoles • Jensen Pissed About OpenAI/AMD? • “AI Is Not Your Friend”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-415.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_v3w0bnv3w0bnv3w0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/) Thursday • October 9, 2025 [Signal: The Perpetual Money Machine 📧Heat 2 • Sora’s Copyright Blindside • Love Bots • Bond’s Guns • An OpenApp Store • Tesla’s Optimus Production Hell • xAI Raising $20B![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-409.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_0-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/) Wednesday • October 8, 2025 [Signal: Financial Funny Business 📧OpenAI Hardware • OpenAI’s Windows Play • OpenAI’s DevDay • Instagram’s Ring Thing • Paramount Buys The Free Press • The MPA Fires Shots at Sora • Supreme Court Declines Google’s Emergency Halt![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-400.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-1-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/) Tuesday • October 7, 2025 [Signal: A Legal Tidal Wave Approaches... 📧Why Sora’s Slop Works • OpenAI & AMD • Succession Tea Leaves at Apple • Succession Tea Leaves at Disney • Taylor Swift’s Commercial Beats the Box Office • Bezos on Bubbles • Anthropic, the ‘Anti-OpenAI’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-396.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_tidal_wave_of_legal_papers_--ar_169_--v_7_c7e7b09b-eb6b-4ca4-a440-fbf7493dccc3_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/) Monday • October 6, 2025 [Signal: The Life of a Dad 📧Apple’s Vision Pro Correction • TikTok’s American Dream • Sora Hits #1 • AI Team Turbulence Continues at Meta • Thinking Machines Lab First Product • Instagram’s Threads Communities • Perplexity’s Browser Goes Free![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-386.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-03-at-4.45.16---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/) Friday • October 3, 2025 [Signal: Sora Break(s) 📧Sora Soars in Debut • Google’s Gemini Home Event • Meta to Use AI Conversations to Target Ads • OpenAI Staff Grapples with Sora • Amazon’s Gaming Strategy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-363.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/NEWS-ARTICLE-14-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-sora-break-s/) Thursday • October 2, 2025 [Signal: Falling Into Hardware 📧Alexa+’s Curve • Apple & Intel • Amazon’s 2025 Hardware Event • Apple’s Leaky Product Pipelines • Apple Testing a ChatGPT-Like App • The Free TV with Always-On Ads • YouTube Pays Off President Trump![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-350.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_0-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-falling-into-hardware/) Wednesday • October 1, 2025 ****September 2025** [Signal: Pumpkin Spice iPhone Day 📧Meta’s Media AI Play • Kimmel Tick-Tock • Apple Injecting Talent into OpenAI • Google Injecting Gemini into Chrome • Prime Video Adding ‘The Masters’ • Optimus vs. the Global Economy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-329.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_4182-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/) Friday • September 19, 2025 [Signal: Meta Vision 📧Meta Ray-Ban Display • Zuck on Glasses • NVIDIA’s Investment in Intel • Jimmy Kimmel No Longer Live • Face-On Report with the AI Glasses![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-323.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/meta-ray-ban-display-lens-768x432-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/) Thursday • September 18, 2025 [Signal: Looking Back at Hardware 📧AI Safety • AI Settlements • RIP Robert Redford • The TikTok Deal • The iPhone Air Flop? • A Touchscreen MacBook? • Spies & Scotch & Martinis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-316.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_looking_back_in_sunglasses_an_an_apple_store_cart_87579061-24a3-49a6-8491-c2a12912212c_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-looking-back-at-hardware/) Wednesday • September 17, 2025 [Signal: Meta’s $800 Question 📧TikTok Everlasting • Public Company Quarterly Reporting • How People Are Using ChatGPT • How People Are Using Claude • John Malone Keeps Talking • Nintendo Virtual Boy Lives!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-311.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-16-at-4.28.14---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-metas-800-question/) Tuesday • September 16, 2025 [Signal: Fine, Woven Revisited 📧iPhone Air: Will it Bend? • OpenAI’s $350B Problem • ‘Demon’ Box Office • Publishers Suing Google Over AI • Gemini Tops App Store Charts • Emmy Winners & Losers • The Tik Keeps Toking…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-303.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G0uh4RxXcAA_jJG-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-fine-woven-revisited/) Monday • September 15, 2025 [Signal: OpenAI’s PBC Race Is On 📧Paramount Skydance + WBD • Techmeme at 20 • The Ozempic iPhone • Larry Ellison Riding the AI Wave • A Protocol for AI Data Licensing • No AirPods Translation in the EU • MountDance WarBroDisco![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-298.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mountdance-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-openais-pbc-race-is-on/) Friday • September 12, 2025 [Signal: A Cosmic Orange 📧KPop, Sony, & Netflix • iPhone Strap • AI Resumes • Amazon’s AR Glasses • Meta’s AI Unit Sparks Tensions • Rise of Small Language Models • Crypto Holding Firms Struggle • ‘Good Will Hunting’ with Guns![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-283.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/cosmicorange-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/) Thursday • September 11, 2025 [Signal: Apple Event Hidden Gems (and Coal) 📧A special edition of Spyglass Signal today, as I furiously try to catch up on every little nook and cranny of Apple news hidden in yesterday’s iPhone event. And, of course, I wrote 2,000-ish words covering my own high-level thoughts about the event, the announcements, the products, and the![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-281.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iphone-lineup-prices-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-event-hidden-gems-and-coal/) Wednesday • September 10, 2025 [Signal: iPhone RAM 📧OpenAI’s $100B+ Bet • Why LLMs Hallucinate • The President’s Tech Trophy Case • ‘Startup Energy’ at Snap • SpaceX Buying Spectrum • Google’s ‘Open Web’ Gaffe • OpenAI Ongoing Melodramas • Howard Stern Lives • Vision Pro in Black![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-274.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_2-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/) Tuesday • September 9, 2025 [Signal: iPhone Unveil Week 📧Anthropic’s Settlement • Rotten Tomatoes Gaming • ‘iPhone Air’ Gamble • OpenAI Reorg • ASML & Mistral • ‘X Money’ Struggles • ‘Conjuring: Last Rites’ Opening • AI’s “Napster Moment” • OpenAI’s New Projections![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-263.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G0S5F5IaAAAp00f.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/) Monday • September 8, 2025 [Signal: A Seat at the Fealty Table 📧Apple & Google are Back • Nintendo’s Genius • Troubling AI • OpenAI’s Custom AI Chip • The White House AI Dinner • ‘Nano Banana’ Helps Gemini • Tesla’s $1T Pay Package for Elon • “The Robot Are Here” • Superman is Coming Back![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-251.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/APTOPIX-Trump-0_1757039302980_1757039340371-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/) Friday • September 5, 2025 [Signal: Stock Performance Remedies 📧Instagram for iPad • AI Beyond Transformers • The Sphere Movies Are Not Movies • Google TPUs vs. NVIDIA • ReMarkable’s New Note-Taking Tablet • Atlassian Buys The Browser Company • The Sexy Celeb AI Bot Epidemic • Bond, Young Bond![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-248.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_stock_chart_showing_it_shooting_up_like_a_rocket_--ar_088a0b17-8a9e-4caa-86f7-906b849c35a9_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/) Thursday • September 4, 2025 [Signal: The Google Antitrust Nuance 📧Antitrust Victory Laps • OpenAI/Statsig • French Studio/Theater Deal • Anthropic’s Round • Tesla’s New ‘Master Plan’ • Gemini’s Home Plan • More Apple AI Defections • Super Massive AI Data Centers![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-243.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_apple_google_and_mozilla_logos_celebrating_--a_b0de8815-398d-460a-9ccd-79597d6737d0_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/) Wednesday • September 3, 2025 [Signal: Waiting on a Remedy 📧Standing Ovations • A Streaming Aggregator • Quantum Computer Race • The Atlantic Envy • Doing Things Early • Rising AI Costs • Sam Altman Speaks • YouTube Sportscasters • Walmart Streaming Options • Cracker Barrel Logo!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-226.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_remedy_--ar_169_--v_7_94bb744e-f94b-48b3-a271-e0c80c3c9552_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-waiting-on-a-remedy/) Tuesday • September 2, 2025 [Signal: Cable Bundles of Joy 📧Zuckerberg & Trump • OpenAI Breaking ChatGPT • John Malone PR Tour • Meta’s Bad Bots • Meta Outsourcing Their AI • Meta’s Scale Situation • Big Short Back?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-212.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_coaxial_cables_bundled_up_in_a_bouquet_cartoon_--ar_169_b19e542d-023f-4288-808d-612e2598359d_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-cable-bundles-of-joy/) Monday • September 1, 2025 ****August 2025** [Kick-OffApple M&A • Podcast About AGI • Meta’s Llama Salvage • NVIDIA’s Q2 • NVIDIA’s 2 Big Customers • Apple’s Radio Play • Meta’s Big Men on AI Campus • ‘TechWoven’ Cases![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-37.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Feafc374e-8bd2-4323-9146-b23008d08f72_1408x736.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/kick-off?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • August 29, 2025 [Seeing Jensen’s ShadowGoogle Antitrust & AI • New iPhones Inbound • Intel’s Dance with Trump • OpenAI/Microsoft Talks Extension • Meta AI Defections • Perplexity’s Chrome Offer • Apple’s iPhone Event![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-36.png)Spyglass SpiralSpyglass Spiral![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Ff116038e-b37a-48f1-9c61-416fe4fa05e3_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/seeing-jensens-shadow?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • August 27, 2025 [A Bundle of BillsApple’s AI Bake Off • Beatles Anthology 4 • Netflix’s Box Office Win • Elon vs. Apple/OpenAI• Perplexity’s Rev Share • Meta’s Midjourney • Ian Fleming • Sam Altman, CEO • NFL Copilot Tablets![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-35.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F5d83d4ec-b9c2-4c6d-92c1-253552de46c1_1920x1080.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-bundle-of-bills?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • August 26, 2025 [Drinking the Liquid GlassHoward Stern • MLB Streaming Deals • Google’s Gemini Speaker • OpenAI Alumni Valuations • OpenAI’s Business • South Park Comes for Tim Cook![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-34.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fe902823e-a296-47c3-9459-8070117f469b_1612x1612.jpeg)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/drinking-the-liquid-glass?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • August 22, 2025 [MSN: Escape from the BCGoogle’s Pixel Event • Superintelligent Podcast • Anthropic & SPVs • Duffer Brothers Bolt • Meta’s AR Glasses • GPT-5 Backlash • New Paramount Logo![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-33.png)Spyglass SpiralSpyglass Spiral![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fac7e85b9-c547-4a66-b0bf-33d0f2a1bb20_4500x3000.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/msn-escape-from-the-bc?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • August 21, 2025 [Can Pixels Meet Atoms in AI?MSNBC’s Rebrand • Instagram Clutter • Meta as the new BlackBerry • ESPN Streaming • Ron Howard • Meta’s AI Shake-Up (Again) • YouTube Oscars • AOL Dial-Up Signs-Off![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-32.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fc14e8818-5d05-42be-ab7c-a928b613fc93_2048x2048.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/can-pixels-meet-atoms-in-ai?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • August 20, 2025 [A New Paramount DecreeSoftBank’s Intel Stake • Apple’s Cheap MacBook • Perplexity’s Browser Buys • Terence Stamp RIP • Meta’s Washington Commanders • Daniel Day-Lewis Returns![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-31.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F1c4f483b-2502-4b08-8900-4ba76405c72e_1024x576.webp)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-new-paramount-decree?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • August 19, 2025 [Back At ItLina Khan & Figma • Roku’s Cheap Streamer • Meta’s Flirty Chatbot Tragedy • Gemini’s Bad Day • Pixel Mocks iPhone AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-30.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F05acfcb0-7cc1-4cf8-9033-1c7c7ccf8f13_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/back-at-it?ref=spyglass.org) Monday • August 18, 2025 [Down BadApple’s Q3 2025 • Amazon’s Q2 2025 • Figma’s Comeback • The ‘AI Trinity’ • iPhone 17 Dummies![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-29.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F6002e4f1-4d21-4de2-855d-92c72cd301b2_960x1440.jpeg)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/down-bad?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • August 1, 2025 ****July 2025** [The Art of the Zuck MemoMeta’s Q2 2024 • Microsoft’s Q4 2024 • Amazon’s NYT AI Payment • SF is Back Again • Remember the Metaverse?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-28.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Ff04865a6-bf91-403b-a92f-dbcc8f60d2fa_1210x1946.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-art-of-the-zuck-memo?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • July 31, 2025 [Earning the Right to Spend on AIJPMorgan’s Apple Card • Microsoft’s OpenAI Agreement • Meta’s Thinking Machine Lab Attack • Meta’s Apple Intelligence Attack • Meta’s All-Star Pirates • Prototype iPhone 17 Pro![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-27.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fdae4e0ff-4ef4-438e-ad95-ec3d81c291ae_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/earning-the-right-to-spend-on-ai?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • July 30, 2025 [Microsoft’s Miss MinutesRing Wearables • Microsoft’s AI Browser • Elon’s Robots • RIP Ozzy, Hulk, & Ryne • Avatar 3 Trailer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-26.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F2c019de5-e6b4-487e-8aa3-c080e0987391_395x395.webp)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/microsofts-miss-minutes?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • July 29, 2025 [Happy to Watch at Home GilmoreMeta’s Chiefs Scientist • Apple & Intel • Anthropic at $150B • Intel & NVIDIA • Apple & Vince Gilligan![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-25.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F9b64aa75-b85e-4e02-bc5c-d7833bda6a39_681x383.webp)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/happy-to-watch-at-home-gilmore?ref=spyglass.org) Monday • July 28, 2025 [Big AI & Big StreamingGoogle’s Q2 • EU vs. App Store • Skydance/Paramount Deal Clears • AppleCar One Service • Feeding the AI Monster • Ted Lasso Returns![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-24.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F0ff82b7b-37b9-46fd-bce2-3274e9e60b83_1296x730.webp)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/big-ai-and-big-streaming?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • July 25, 2025 [The AI Comp EquationsApple Leaks • ChatGPT Agent • Uber Robotaxis • Substack’s Valuation • Netflix’s Q2 • Copilot Challenges • Netflix & AI • Emoji![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-23.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fc7ada8d3-22be-4998-b2e2-b83111dc4a46_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • July 18, 2025 [AI’s Productivity PuzzlesWorking at OpenAI • Non-WebKit iOS Browsers • Grok AI Bots • Emmy Noms • Meta’s Open Source AI Path • NVIDIA’s China Trade Deal Win • Zelda Casting!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-22.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F8807be3d-1763-4d2d-bf80-84e4ebcc080f_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/ais-productivity-puzzles?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • July 16, 2025 [Circling the Whale CarcassIn the span of just a few days, one startup pulled off the trifecta: a failed acquisition, a “hackquihire”, and now an actual acquisition.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-21.png)Spyglass SpiralSpyglass Spiral![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F0ad6ea4d-b6fb-424e-8d08-bc8ebfc7ef13_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • July 15, 2025 [Strap In, Vision Pro OwnersAmazon + Anthropic • Talking Apple + Claude • Dun3 • Meta’s Apple Poach • Risks for NVIDIA & Microsoft • Grok 4 • NVIDIA $4T![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-20.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F3ff1f89b-cbef-4aa4-b593-5df5599718f7_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/strap-in-vision-pro-owners?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • July 10, 2025 [Summer’s Sobering Box OfficeApple’s AWS • “America’s Party” • Netflix/Spotify • RIP Michael Madsen • Apple’s EU Appeal • TikTok 2 • Expensive Superintelligence • Mobile Social DAUs![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-18.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F426ecf48-ba00-4a37-8093-ca88f9d7de16_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/summers-sobering-box-office?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • July 8, 2025 [Meta’s Cash CannonsMicrosoft Layoffs • A New SVB • Figma’s S-1 • ‘The Odyssey’ Teaser • Robinhood’s Startup Equity Tokens • Mac Finder Icon![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-16.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F55e230ba-c110-4c80-b430-f460b8b222cf_1232x928.jpeg)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/metas-cash-cannons?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • July 3, 2025 [Siri’s Brain TransplantApple’s Vision Quest • Apple Rings • Paramount Plus Branding • Xitter’s Head of Product • Apple’s Vision Roadmap![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-17.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F9fa473ed-20f7-4b97-9d85-c04ca9a1d6aa_1536x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/siris-brain-transplant?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • July 1, 2025 ****June 2025** [Can Apple Drive to Survive Hollywood?Happy F1 day to those who celebrate.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-15.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fa40542d9-17c2-42eb-83eb-a23e782f9d8c_1700x850.avif)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/can-apple-drive-to-survive-hollywood?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • June 27, 2025 [Monitoring the (Apple AI M&A) SituationApple EU “Concessions” • The “Cheat on Everything” AI App • ChatGPT in Schools • America-Made Smartphones • Shopping From TVs • Netflix Experience Malls![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-14.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F2b23f2d4-8d3a-4143-857b-3f11499695ef_1024x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/monitoring-the-apple-ai-m-and-a-situation?ref=spyglass.org) Monday • June 23, 2025 [No Deal is Safe as Meta Furiously Goes After SuperintelligenceScale’s Data Promise • Lakers Deal • More Mindhuner • xAI’s Burn • The Naked Gun![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-13.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fb27402af-863d-40dc-9254-6b3bdc2157a6_1232x928.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • June 20, 2025 [With Friends Like These...Tim Cook ‘F1’ Photoshoot • WhatsApp Ads • News Sites Crushed By AI • Jurassic Park 7 • Meta/Scale Deal Tick-Tock • He-Man![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-12.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Ff899fd10-0480-43a9-a049-24de4124e7c6_894x1194.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/with-friends-like-these?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • June 17, 2025 [Get In Social Media Losers...Apple Spinning Siri • Amazon Spinning Movie Theaters • OpenAI + Google Cloud • Alexa+ Users • RIP Brian Wilson • Spaceballs 2!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-11.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/WsK-KPi_w3w)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/get-in-social-media-losers?ref=spyglass.org) Saturday • June 14, 2025 [A WWDC Trapped in Frozen LiquidSnap’s Specs • OpenAI’s ARR • The Superintelligence Sales Pitch • Warner Bros Discovery Splits In Two • Tesla Robotaxi Spotting![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-10.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F2aa7fac9-d078-441d-898c-31c0ddcc63b0_999x1019.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-wwdc-trapped-in-frozen-liquid?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • June 11, 2025 [A Quiet Build to WWDCNASA & SpaceX • Snapchat & Apple Watch • Meta & Defense • Anthropic • AI Regulation • AI Spy Glasses![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-9.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F3d6a1a2f-2d1d-491f-8cb0-1258c96156cd_1378x916.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-quiet-build-to-wwdc?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • June 6, 2025 [Nintendo Switch 2 EveNew Media Layoffs • Automatic AI Ads • OpenAI, The Movie • ‘Living Glass’ UI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-8.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F55cc9643-1113-472f-8ee1-2a98c3ef320e_1000x667-1.webp)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/nintendo-switch-2-eve?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • June 4, 2025 [The End of EmailPE-Like AI Roll-Ups • WhatsApp iPad • WWDC UI Not AI • Meta’s Puffin & Puck Headset • Is AI Lying To Us? • 20 iPhones For 28 Years Later![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-2.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F82ae4e90-ad65-4971-8dad-4647e3abbbe7_2500x1667.jpeg)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-end-of-email?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • June 3, 2025 ****May 2025** [Have MercySlow Startgate • DoE AI Supercomputer • Meta’s Metaverse at War • The Never Boring OpenAI Board • ChatGPT’s Go-Forward Plan![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-1.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F249ac1b1-49f6-4810-92c3-0d7f82bd4a23_1226x1766.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/have-mercy?ref=spyglass.org) Saturday • May 31, 2025 [A Spiral NotebookInside DOGE • Musk Outside • The Dandy Illegal Tariff Plan • Google Home Gemini • Meta AI Restructure • NVIDIA Earnings • Fat iPhone 17 Pro Max![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F794d2244-1251-4c5f-bc16-df4eb9b38228-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)Spyglass SpiralM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F8f44df7a-8571-462c-bc8d-c714965a4a19_1536x1024.png)](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-spiral-notebook?ref=spyglass.org) Thursday • May 29, 2025 [The WWDC ShuffleWWDC in 2 Weeks • iOS Xbox App Delay • Apple’s Pressure • Box Office Boomlet • Microsoft Anthropic • Anthropic Agentic Pokemon • AI Shuffle Stick![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F00b6e81b-87df-40ae-a8fd-1e9c103e29d0-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-4.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F8efb6f3b-c1d6-47b0-8d08-5d8867141137_1600x900.jpeg)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/the-wwdc-shuffle?ref=spyglass.org) Monday • May 26, 2025 [See You Back In CourtEpic/Apple • Apple/AI • Standing O • Stephen A • Stargate UAE • AI Vader Voice • Netflix Sesame Street • Vision Pro Eye Scroll![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F00b6e81b-87df-40ae-a8fd-1e9c103e29d0-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-3.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F6173c6d7-497b-405f-a533-679de9cbfa47_3288x3672.png)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/see-you-back-in-court?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • May 20, 2025 [Explosions in the SkyKids & AI • HBO Max • Indian iPhone • Microsoft AI • Fortnite App • Car Play Ultra • Big Llama • OpenAI Codex • Clooney Live • Netflix Live • Air Traffic & Asteroids • Odyssey IMAX • Vision Pro Price![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F00b6e81b-87df-40ae-a8fd-1e9c103e29d0-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-2.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Ffc34c6ee-57d3-4dd0-b5cb-5c007963915b_734x453.jpeg)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/explosions-in-the-sky?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • May 16, 2025 [Just Win, BabyOpenAI & Airbnb Evolve • Hollywood Tariffs • Half-Off Movies • Studio Funding • $treaming E$PN • AI Audiobooks • Stargate UAE • AI I/O + Gemini • Apple Batteries & Brains • Pete Rose • Madden Movie![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F00b6e81b-87df-40ae-a8fd-1e9c103e29d0-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-1.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F816aea9b-1d81-4e30-b97c-93f5480d2dba_1296x730.webp)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/just-win-baby?ref=spyglass.org) Wednesday • May 14, 2025 [Our Digital Pasts and AI FutureApple & Fortnite, Big 2027, Leadership • YouTube + NFL • ‘Fox One’ • Bill Gates, Trillionaire • Trump’s Anchoring • AI Pope • Cursor & Perplexity Rounds • Gemini iPad • ‘Kung Fury’ & ‘F1’ • The Paper![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F00b6e81b-87df-40ae-a8fd-1e9c103e29d0-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/sDD6izSZInw)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/our-digital-pasts-and-ai-future?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • May 13, 2025 [Cue Sunk My Battleship!OpenAI’s Dual CEO • Apple’s Smart Glasses Chips • xAI’s New Funding![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F13ea50fa-26f3-4e9a-9158-eaeae1f200dc-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-1.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F2db26553-1058-4bed-a03f-01304d375d77_1024x1024.png)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/cue-sunk-my-battleship?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • May 9, 2025 [Big Tech and Big AIGoogle’s Antitrust Case Focuses on the AI Future • Mozilla is Doomed without Google Money • Eye-Scanning Orbs Hit Our Shores • Record Everything, Let AI Sort It Out • Beyond Control AI Startups![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F13ea50fa-26f3-4e9a-9158-eaeae1f200dc-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F7aac45a6-09b7-4428-8521-ee9162ccd7f2_1016x911.png)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/big-tech-and-big-ai?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • May 6, 2025 [An Epically Bad Week for AppleApp Store Updates • Gemini on iPhones • Meta’s Money • Waymo Cars![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F01f9305d-6f68-422d-9b3a-c75279425257-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-4.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F157ce187-5523-4a2e-aee9-fd6bd13edbf3_1536x1024.png)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/an-epically-bad-week-for-apple?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • May 2, 2025 ****April 2025** [Peacocking Performative ChatsThe Top iPhones Still Need China • Motorola’s Wooden Foldable Razr • Microsoft in OpenAI’s Dust • Revenge of the Sith, Indeed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F01f9305d-6f68-422d-9b3a-c75279425257-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180-2.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F2303e6cd-51fe-4ba1-9f71-5e7d8dbb2f9c_1536x768.png)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/peacocking-performative-chats?ref=spyglass.org) Tuesday • April 29, 2025 [StackediPhones from India • The New Siri Team • Notion Mail • Gemini Users![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2F01f9305d-6f68-422d-9b3a-c75279425257-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)Spyglass DispatchM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fd506ac1c-6053-486b-9c90-1aa897d92d39_1456x816.png)](https://dispatch.spyglass.org/p/stacked?ref=spyglass.org) Friday • April 25, 2025 [Dispatch 052: Monopoly PiecesStartups & Tariffs • ‘Sinners’ Reaps Rewards • iPhone 17 Air Pre-Preview • Blue Origin’s Space Cadets • Hycean Life![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-805.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-22--2025--10_39_36-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-052-monopoly-pieces/) Tuesday • April 22, 2025 [Dispatch 051: Happy ThursdayAI Venture Investment • Perplexity Phones • Meta and Apple AI • OpenAI’s New Ideas Breakthrough![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-792.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_birthday_cake_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6_--v_7_91709376-5088-490a-82c5-9cc206005b4f_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-051-happy-thursday/) Thursday • April 17, 2025 [Dispatch 050: Black Monday 2Waiting on Alexa+ • Larry Ellison, Media Mogul • Visa Going Hard After Apple Card • Apple Watch’s ‘Health+’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-722.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_picture_from_black_monday_on_a_trading_floor_--ar_21__1f85c689-6d2e-4969-9a45-f7316abb3f1d_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-050-black-monday/) Monday • April 7, 2025 ****March 2025** [Dispatch 049: March MadnessAlexNet Open Sourced • Microsoft’s Inflection • Yahoo’s TechCrunch • CoreWeave’s Swap![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-659.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_cartoon_of_people_playing_basketball_in_a_neural_net_--_e08ca35a-7112-4d7a-b0e3-d548235399f8_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-049/) Friday • March 21, 2025 [Dispatch 048: Irish EyesOracleTok • Lasso Back • NVIDIA’s Vera • A Leading iPhone Air![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-543.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_irish_eyes_are_smiling_--ar_169_--v_6.1_a7356b4f-f114-47a1-8bbd-09da1601807e_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-048-irish-eyes/) Monday • March 17, 2025 ****January 2025** [Dispatch 047: For the RoadMy 2025 iPhone Homescreen • Trump’s TikTok EO • A Deal on Tariffs • A Strange Deal • New IMDb Head • Apple v. Google v. Court • Switch Take 2![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-327.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-01-21-at-5.34.36-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-047-for-the-road/) Tuesday • January 21, 2025 [Dispatch 046: Yuge DayTikTok Trick • The Ban That Wasn’t (But Still Might Be) • A Move to Community Notes • Blue Origin Soars • Perplexity Shoots Its (Long) Shot![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-323.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_many_american_flags_cheer_on_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms__7794ce36-8ccb-4f08-899c-bf56c2993a67_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-046-big-day-yuge-day/) Monday • January 20, 2025 [Dispatch 045: The Tok Tiks MidnightNetflix Live Sports • Stephen Miller & Zuck • Netflix, Narnia, and IMAX • Apple AI Notifications • RIP Bob Uecker • RIP David Lynch![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-317.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--71--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-045-the-tok-tiks-midnight/) Friday • January 17, 2025 [Dispatch 044: A Super SwitchTrump’s TikTok EO Option • Should Startups Go Public? • Google & Microsoft Search for AI Business Models![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-315.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-01-16-at-1.34.34-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-044-a-super-switch/) Thursday • January 16, 2025 [Dispatch 043: Bromo SapiensMasculine Startups • The Fall of Xbox • Meta’s Misinformation Off Switch • TikTok’s Switch Off![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-314.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_more_athletic_Bro_wearing_a_chain_and_a_cool_sweatshi_647c9b2e-aee9-4b9a-8767-34013d66ea90_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-043-bromo-sapiens/) Wednesday • January 15, 2025 [Dispatch 042: TikTok & TwitterSonos Switch • MySports Streaming • Amazon’s Alexa Brain Freeze • Billionaire-Free Social Media • EU Backs off Big Tech![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-312.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--68--1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-042-tiktok-twitter/) Tuesday • January 14, 2025 [Dispatch 041: It’s Political & PersonalOn Meta’s Moderation Changes • Inside DOGE • Zuck Slams Apple (Again) • Apple’s Muted 2025 • CES 2025 Recap![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-305.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-01-13-15.24.28---A-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-man-shown-from-behind--gently-petting-a-majestic-bald-eagle-perched-on-his-arm-or-shoulder.-The-man-is-dressed-casua-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/) Monday • January 13, 2025 [Dispatch 040: The Case for a For-Profit OpenAIRIP Venu • A More Political and Real Time Threads • An OpenAI Auction • Apple’s Tough 2025![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-303.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robot_wandering_into_a_bank_vault_filled_with_money_c_dbe19668-bb10-4740-890d-e658a37459be_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-040-the-case-for-a-for-profit-openai/) Friday • January 10, 2025 [Dispatch 039: One Prediction Down...9 More to Go for 2025 • Netflix Wrestles the WWE Audience • EU Swipes Back at Meta • Howard Marks’ Bubble Watch • TikTok Case Eve![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-300.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OIG1.iKZINNQ-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-039-2/) Thursday • January 9, 2025 [Dispatch 038: Meta MiscuesMeta’s Social AI Content • Anthropic at $60B • Bluesky at $700M • Dick Wolf’s 30 Minute Show • NVIDIA’s CPU Aspirations![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-295.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--66-.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-038-meta-miscues/) Wednesday • January 8, 2025 [Dispatch 037: CaptAIn AmerIca...Hulu, Fubo, Venu • NVIDIA’s Cosmos • NVIDIA’s DIGITS • Meta’s Board Addition • Meta’s Fact-Checking Subtraction • Dude, You’re Getting a Dell Pro Max Premium![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-293.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-01-07-at-12.43.33-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-037-captain-america/) Tuesday • January 7, 2025 [Dispatch 036: Cutting Checks, Bending Knees & Kissing RingsSam Altman Reflects on a Chaotic Couple Years • 2025 Golden Globes • AI TVs • Uber & Lyft + Robotaxis • Thoughts on Dune: Prophecy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-286.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-01-06-15.52.33---A-vintage--old-school-illustration-of-a-hand-writing-a-check.-The-image-features-a-detailed--realistic-depiction-of-a-hand-holding-a-pen--writing-on-a-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-036-cutting-checks-bending-knees-kissing-rings/) Monday • January 6, 2025 [****Current Newsletters**](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) [****2024 Newsletters**](https://spyglass.org/newsletter-2024/) ### Thoughts On... URL: https://spyglass.org/commentary/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T12:35:48.000Z Ongoing analysis of current topics in tech and media that are exclusive to paid members of [*The Inner Ring*](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/). **You can join** [**here**](#/portal/signup) (or upgrade your account [here](#/portal/account/plans))! ****September 2026** [Anthropic’s Apocalyptic S-1 • Meta EnterpriseAnthropic’s leaked prospectus suggests that the what is likely to be the largest IPO in history may also be the strangest, shrouded in doom but perhaps not gloom? Meanwhile, while we already knew about Meta’s push towards a Cloud offering, by hiring their own Thomas Kurian, clearly they’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-17785e85-e3e0-4911-81d0-e5122e8b90d8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_doom_and_gloom_in_the_cloud_16x9_--v_8.2_a094173b-d4a8-4225-ac0f-a95a96280bc7_2-1-20b65f8b-543a-4512-9d82-7e6462a9bee4.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-anthropics-apocalyptic-s-1-meta-enterprise/) [The Great AI Agent Race • A “Super” AI Rebrand AttemptMuse has likely kicked the AI agentic race that was already well underway into a higher gear, with seemingly all of Big Tech and Big AI set to respond. Or should I say, Big “SI” – you know, “Super Intelligence” the bigly branding that everyone is clearly going to adopt ASAP.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-508b6b7c-ba72-45a8-968e-17111ae31422.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-23--2026--02_28_50-PM-1-dfb1be21-ef51-413d-aa3d-c52c20b2f702.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-the-great-ai-agent-race-a-super-ai-rebrand-attempt/) [Amazon Blocks Meta’s Muse • Apple’s iPhone Duo Pencil PivotWell, it didn’t take long for a full-on AI Agentic War to break out. No, not the kind that could potentially end humanity, but the kind that could end civility between the various players in Big Tech... Meanwhile, Apple’s ‘one more thing’ iPhone Duo almost had its![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-13bba39c-e12c-4ae2-99d6-b74b9cb2a8e7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-21--2026--07_30_32-PM-1-b0492698-78e5-4bc4-8bb7-1502d6d5bedf.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-amazon-blocks-metas-muse-apples-iphone-duo-pencil-pivot/) [Apple’s NVIDIA Challenge • Snap’s Specs ShitshowMight Apple make their own AI chips? It’s easy to think of a few reasons why they would want to... Will Snap’s SPECs fail to launch? I mean, come on... Read on, for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-a2102705-3bc7-4525-b650-4140598ef0fd.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-17--2026--01_24_45-PM-1-485ef070-12d5-49e4-9f36-60c1a514fc6b.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-apples-nvidia-challenge-snaps-specs-shitshow/) [AI’s Mixed Messages • Siri AI’s Potential Developer ProblemDo you feel like every other headline and talking point coming out of the companies at the AI frontier contradict each other? You’re not alone there. The future is so bright... because of the nuclear blast that the rogue AI agents will trigger. By accident or on purpose. But![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-27d48922-591d-4cb5-bebf-5d693062485c.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-8--2026--01_50_34-PM-1-24314906-d310-470a-b1fd-d74e8381fbca.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/) [Back to the Frontier AI Races • Netflix Out-YouTubes YouTubeThe caution flags have been lifted. We’re back off to the frontier model races this week! While the Netflix and YouTube race continues unabated. Read on for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9c5b5a21-d231-434c-b02e-0a522a14abfc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_f1_cars_off_to_the_races_--ar_43_--profile_frkb6cv_--v_8._387b7365-9485-402b-a21b-a2d107022c49_1-1-3e82d273-1d70-4daa-a73e-5c42e7e5cf8f.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-back-to-the-frontier-ai-races-netflix-out-youtubes-youtube/) ****August 2026** [OpenAI’s Comeback • Hollywood’s Ticket DisasterAn OpenAI cover story gets thrown for a loop when their models hack a partner (one which NVIDIA may or may not be buying). And throwing some ice cold water on the blockbuster movie year for Hollywood. Read on for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-85451213-ea21-4da5-beec-2dc00403f074.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-31--2026--05_16_54-PM-1-98b35187-7dba-4c0b-8c71-496413e55045.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-openais-potential-comeback-hollywoods-movie-tickets-sold-disaster/) [Bill Gates, Doomer • The Mac Mini MorphsUh, Bill Gates sounds a lot like... Dario Amodei in writing up his thoughts on where he thinks the world is headed with regard to AI. It’s a good essay, worth the read, but it’s certainly not going to help the AI perception problems! (And it’s also![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-243557e5-b5b9-4ff3-a727-b5a8763ee873.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-26--2026--03_56_25-PM-1-8a989202-7408-4248-914f-394484a6157e.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/) [NVIDIA & Perplexity • Fable’s Stalled GrowthWhy might NVIDIA want to buy – sorry, “hackquire” – part of Perplexity? And why might Fable’s growth be stalling for Anthropic? Read on for thoughts on…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ef351e89-c1b1-46d1-b1b6-56dde0e5ca31.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_thoughts_on_nvidia_chips_16x9_--ar_43_--profile_frkb6cv_-_71c44cc1-0cdb-4116-9262-6588e1221d03_3-1-d0f6cf25-9071-4439-b34f-c36d3e888331.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-nvidia-perplexity-fables-stalled-growth/) ## Posts ### OpenAI's Dots Dichotomy URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-dots-chatgpt-ai-assistant/ Last updated: 2026-09-30T12:27:59.000Z I was pretty excited to watch [OpenAI's DevDay](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fls%5FonRviPM&ref=spyglass.org) yesterday. Inadvertent rogue model hacking issues aside, the company has always been good [on the product side](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) of the house. So I really wanted to see their take on AI personal assistants, a space which is [having a moment](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-the-great-ai-agent-race-a-super-ai-rebrand-attempt/#:~:text=for%20thoughts%20on...-,The%20Great%20AI%20Agent%20Race,-Meta%E2%80%99s%20Muse%20Surpassed) after years of [broken promises](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/). Sam Altman wasted no time on stage, about 90 seconds in promising "the thing you've asked for the most" and "a whole new way to work with AI" and "the real deal version of AI". And so? Honestly, I'm sort of confused. [Dots](https://openai.com/index/introducing-dots/?ref=spyglass.org) are your cute, little AI assistant. Emphasis on *cute*. While technically you can stylized them [as an 'O'](https://spyglass.org/openai-ai-device/) – albeit a somehow still cute colorful one – or a 'Pet' (a holdover from Codex), the clear emphasis is on the cute, cuddly, colorful faces. They're far more like Microsoft's failed [blob thing](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) for Copilot than what Meta is doing with Muse. Actually, they're even more like Grok Bot, which may be the point. That's fine, cute AI is [better than](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/) say, "[we're going to end the world](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/#:~:text=Please%20Get%20Excited%20for%20the%20End%20of%20the%20World)" AI – though I can't help be [*yet again*](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/#:~:text=Something%20else%20this,sinister%20smile.) be reminded of the smiling-while-being-mischievous Miss Minutes AI from *Loki* – but it's also a weird contrast to the actual framing OpenAI is conveying here. That is, Dots aren't meant to be the "booking plane ticket" bots, tasks which Altman called "trivial" for such AI, but rather "we wanted to be way more ambitious". So are Dots instead meant to cure cancer? I mean, maybe! But that's also not the framing OpenAI was using on stage. Instead, it was seemingly more about helping you get work done. And with an emphasis on being proactive based on what your Dot knows about you. That's also fine! But that's also seemingly what all the other AI assistants are doing, including Muse and Grok Bot and Instinct and [even now Copilot](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-vision-pro-copilots-super-app-streaming-ads-doj-helps-apple/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9B%A9%EF%B8%8F%20The%20Copilot%20%22Super%20App%22%20Lands). Of course, Dots have an advantage in that they're baked into ChatGPT, a product which has 1.2 billion weekly active users, as Altman touted on stage. While that's not more users than Meta has overall, they also opted to launch Muse as a stand-alone new service – albeit one that can be and will be heavily promoted across those multi-billion user products. Those are two very different approaches, with upsides and downsides to each, but oddly [I find myself drawn more to Meta's positioning here](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/). I say "oddly" because I've [historically](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-connect-keynote/) loathed some of Meta's [products](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) and product [decisions](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/), certainly in [recent years](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/). And while many people simply [refuse to trust](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-ai-humans/) the company due to their myriad issues in the past, I'm willing to keep an open mind – provided the product is good. And Muse is good! It's early, but promising on a number of fronts. Dots has elements I like as well – I'll get to those – but the higher level positioning is just confusing to me. Muse is for consumers – at least until Meta [pushes more](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) into enterprise, which [they're working on](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-anthropics-apocalyptic-s-1-meta-enterprise/#:~:text=Meta%20Gets%20Down%20to%20Business). Dots is for... well, OpenAI would say it's for everyone, but it's *clearly* being angled for workers – or "builders" to use OpenAI's clearly preferred parlance (their "Here's to the builders" video at the end of the keynote was a [Apple-like salute](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sMBhDv4sik&ref=spyglass.org)). Yes, cute faces and all. I suspect what happened here is that OpenAI had been working on this project for a while, but also knew that Meta and SpaceXAI – two hated rivals, no less – were getting close to launching their products into market. But the company wasn't sure which product to target – Muse or Grok Bot – so they just said "both". And so we have their weird dichotomy of cute faces for serious business. Again, OpenAI would undoubtedly frame it that Dots are for *everything*. But they also clearly have been pivoting hard [away from the consumer market](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) that they've dominated in AI in order to match their true rival: Anthropic. And it seems to be working, at least from an underlying business perspective. But also without question the consumer business has been hurt as a result. [Sora is dead,](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) [Atlas has fallen](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/), [ChatGPT is bloated](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/), and now Dots are here to help you take care of office tasks. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-30-at-1.17.35---PM.png) Yes, I'm being a little unfair, but the framing does matter here because the lack of clarity and purpose about what these things could and should do could just lead to more bodies in the AI assistant graveyard. If your product can do everything, you run a real risk that no one uses it for anything. Because no one has any idea what to do or where to start. Being proactive helps – and Muse seems particularly good at this – but the high-level positioning matters too. Is this for home or work? [Yes, it may be both *eventually*](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/), but it needs to start somewhere! ChatGPT [owns](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) the consumer market for AI. OpenAI may not have set out with this goal, but here we are. But they're increasingly ceding that market as they go after Anthropic's market. And Meta is right there, more than happy to take it! In this regard, my viewpoint is almost the exact opposite of my friend Casey Newton's [as he writes about today in *Platformer*](https://www.platformer.news/openai-dots-agents-devday-2026/?ref=platformer-newsletter). He totally groks Dots while he doesn't grok Muse. I suspect part of it is that he's trying to build a business while I'm just here to mess around on the internet (and apparently book plane tickets – which I have actually done once with Muse so far). Muse feels more consumer-y while Dots feels more business-y. He concedes the "confused" product messaging for Dots, as [also noted by Benedict Evans](https://www.threads.com/@benedictevans/post/Dd4j-8Hm8-g?ref=platformer.news), but obviously also just gets a lot more out of that product, clearly. I still get more out of ChatGPT overall too, but I think Muse's angle may be a better one for that broader AI assistant consumer audience. Granted, I've been using Dots for only *a few hours*, but that's my sense, right now. To that end, some other quick product thoughts: I like that Dots – I've named my 'Mortimer' to complement ['Moneypenny' on Muse](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) – resides in its own area of ChatGPT. I was worried it would be crammed in as [yet another sub-menu](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) of Chat or Work or Codex – or all three. And I like keeping my more "traditional" AI chats separate. But that's mainly because it allows me to keep using ChatGPT [as I have been](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/). Again, for most consumers, I assume they want [*one chat box*](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-camera-less-glasses-apples-surveillance-claude-unifies-prime-bundles-dario-writes-bond-jack-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Anthropic%20Merges%20Claude%20Chat%20and%20Cowork) *to rule them all*, not 4 or 5 different options? So perhaps Muse also has an advantage here, though their one stream for chat means things get buried, fast. (Which is clearly why "side chats" exist.) Then again, that's how you would message an *actual* assistant so that might be easier for people to wrap their heads around. But AI is also the ultimate product that shows how technology can operate [at scale far greater than human beings can](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/), so one stream won't last long for many. I do like Dots traditional "read" receipts. And I appreciate emoji reactions on both. Both do a nice job with little touches to make the bots feel more "alive" such as typing indicators, but also just little movements with the avatars when they're working or waiting. Those avatars being infinitely – literally! – more customizable on Muse is obviously a plus, though such constraints may help Dots branding? As long as they don't mind that branding for a serious AI assistant being a cute, colorful creature – my 'Mortimer' wears a monocle and a bowtie! The idea of calling your Dot *on the phone* is sort of wild and kind of fun but perhaps a bit too anachronistic? Why not just use the current [vocal AI paradigm](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) for this? Will young people even know what the dial tone is? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-30-at-7.30.29---AM.png) Talking to Morty... on the phone... Putting Slack integration front-and-center makes sense for that work context, but again, just highlights Dots as angled towards more of a business service. Being able to see your Dots full computer is awesome. Muse obviously [got in some](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/1000222/meta-muse-ai-filesystem?ref=spyglass.org) (mostly [misguided](https://x.com/dps/status/2103161493722419334?ref=spyglass.org)) hot water over being able to download the contents of your assistant's machine in the cloud, so they made it even more transparent, but this is the correct approach. It's not just the browser you can take over with Dots, but the *entire* computer.[1](#one) Because, again, it's yours! That said, Meta was more clear in their messaging here about each individual user getting their own virtual machine. And they certainly have been more clear about the security efforts around that machine and your overall usage. These elements were more or less mentioned in passing during Altman's DevDay keynote. Then again, Meta also *has* to focus on these far more given their aforementioned history. Muse's focus on 'Feed', 'Ideas', and 'Goals' just once again make it seem so much more consumer-oriented, whereas Dots has 'Space' (technically, all of ChatGPT has 'Space' it just launched alongside Dots and is integrated), which is OpenAI's Office/Google Docs/Notion competitor. Again, this seems to say a lot about the positioning here. Pay no attention to those extremely cute faces! Both products are clearly going to evolve quickly. But I can't help but wonder if Dots isn't indicative of the push and pull OpenAI feels overall between consumer and business use cases and users. Again, they want to be *both*, but it's hard enough to be one. Anthropic is much more clear in this regard. At least until their cutesy AI assistant thing launches. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-30--2026--01_12_19-PM.png) All work and no play makes Mortimer a dull boy... --- 1 Weird that the browser icon is just the Chromium one and not Atlas? Again, that product is gone, but it could have lived on here? Then again, maybe the Chromium logo will just make more sense to people – though it's not exactly Chrome! [↩](#) ### Anthropic's Apocalyptic S-1 • Meta Enterprise URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-anthropics-apocalyptic-s-1-meta-enterprise/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T12:17:05.000Z Anthropic's leaked prospectus suggests that the what is likely to be the largest IPO in history may also be the strangest, [shrouded in doom](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/) but perhaps not gloom? Meanwhile, while we already knew about Meta's push towards [a Cloud offering](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/), by hiring their own Thomas Kurian, clearly they'll going all-in on enterprise... Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### As the AI Communication Crisis Mounts, Here's Steve Jobs URL: https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-crisis-comms-antennagate-ai/ Last updated: 2026-09-28T13:48:23.000Z 🔗 The iPhone 4 ‘Antennagate’ Press Conference Q&A — Finally • Daring Fireball Last January, as the AI [perception](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) issues were mounting, [I wrote a post](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) arguing that the industry needed a Steve Jobs-like figure to step in to take control of the messaging. While Jensen Huang has been [trying](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) to fill [some of that void](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/), with Satya Nadella working on [other](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%E2%98%81%EF%B8%8F%20Microsoft%E2%80%99s%20Hybrid%20AI%20Dreams) [parts](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20Satya%20Nadella%27s%20%22Frontier%20Ecosystem%22) in [trying to](https://sources.news/p/satya-nadella-microsoft-copilot-future?ref=spyglass.org) calm the waters, and now even Mark Zuckerberg [trying his best](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-connect-keynote/), nothing they're doing seems to be working, at least in the US. The situation is now far more out of control than it was, and [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) still [getting worse](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/) – to the point that Dario Amodei is getting [mocked](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nvne3LzBls&ref=spyglass.org) on *Saturday Night Live*. It's mainstream. It's a problem. Naturally that's where my mind drifted after [John Gruber posted about](https://daringfireball.net/2026/09/iphone%5F4%5Fantennagate%5Fq%5Fand%5Fa?ref=spyglass.org) a last-minute, emergency press conference Apple once held: > The most extraordinary Apple event in the company’s modern history was the emergency press conference on Friday, 16 July 2010 to address “antennagate”—the out-of-control media narrative [that the iPhone 4 had a defective antenna design](https://daringfireball.net/2010/07/?ref=spyglass.org). The event was only scheduled one day in advance—I got invited around noon ET on July 15 and was on my way to the airport about an hour later. It remains one of the most interesting press events I’ve ever attended. > > The event was held in Apple’s Town Hall auditorium at the old Infinite Loop headquarters. Town Hall is a tiny venue but it wasn’t full. It opened with Jonathan Mann’s “[The iPhone 4 Antenna Song](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKIcaejkpD4&ref=spyglass.org)” (refrain: “If you don’t want an iPhone 4, don’t buy it; if you bought one and you don’t like it, bring it back”), then Steve Jobs took the stage for what he said would be a 15-minute presentation but which took 30 minutes. Then Jobs had COO Tim Cook and hardware chief Bob Mansfield join him on stage to answer questions from the assembled members of the media. As Gruber notes, while [the video of that press conference](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8tXyfjfnB0&ref=spyglass.org) had long been available on YouTube, the Q&A afterwards, which is actually longer at 45 minutes, seemed to be lost in time. [Until now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiN5ERktXz0&ref=spyglass.org). I too was in the audience that day, covering the press conference for *TechCrunch*. After [getting the cryptic invite](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/14/apple-antenna-press-conference/?ref=spyglass.org) (they didn't tell us what it was about, though it also wasn't that hard too guess given [the swirl](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/13/iphone-4-antenna/?ref=spyglass.org) at the time), I actually [wrote a post predicting how the press conference would likely play out](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/15/iphone-4-press-conference/?ref=spyglass.org). And, if I do say so myself, I nailed it. A taste: > Still, the Consumer Reports story is just one thing. More troubling to Apple has to be the cascade effect it has had on the media. CNN is talking about it, [MSNBC is talking about it](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/13/in-the-wake-of-antennagate-apples-stock-takes-a-hit/?ref=spyglass.org), local news is talking about it — [even David Letterman is talking about it](http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/07/14/video-david-lettermans-top-10-signs-youve-purchased-a-bad-iphone-4/?ref=spyglass.org). The situation has gotten out of control in a way the tightly-controlled Apple cannot find comfortable at all. > > So that’s what I believe this event is about. A way to pivot the message back to what Apple perceives to be the facts. Apple will undoubtedly acknowledge that holding the iPhone 4 [does affect the signal](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/03/iphone-4-review/?ref=spyglass.org). But they’ll note once again that this is true of *all* cellphones. And perhaps some experts will chime in to show some results to prove this to be the case. > > They’ll also undoubtedly point out how the iPhone 4 actually has the best antenna Apple has ever produced. They’ll probably have results to back this up as well. > > The focus will be on the facts that Apple has studies to prove. And the idea behind all of this is to drill it into our heads that the antenna issue is being [blown out of proportion](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/13/iphone-4-antenna/?ref=spyglass.org). That it’s an easy headline about a hot product. > > And Apple’s tactic may just work. Because it’s a lot harder to blindly write about one side of a topic when the other side has very directly addressed and refuted the issues with you. And the kicker: > To combat that, Apple may feel the time is right to pull out their not-so-secret weapon: Steve Jobs. On a stage. [Talking](https://techcrunch.com/2009/09/17/the-importance-of-enthusiasm-in-any-product/?ref=spyglass.org). Talking points aside, that last bit was the true key to this event. You have to watch the whole thing. It's just an absolute masterclass in disarming a crisis and de-escalation. From his opening "We're not perfect." slide to his "has this helped?" question back to the audience to close after the Q&A. Jobs is direct while showing contrition at points and being combative at others. He utilizes both humor – a lot of it! "Just like, you know, just like having kids." – but also an uncanny ability to cut down what is ultimately a technical issue to its true core so other, less technical people can relate and understand it. He speaks like a regular old human being, he references *Annie Hall*, he laughs. He hands off a couple of questions to Apple's SVP of hardware at the time Bob Mansfield, and a couple more to then-COO Tim Cook (who doesn't even speak until 30 minutes in!), but almost the entire thing is Jobs, off-the-cuff, just answering questions. [I've noted before](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) that he's seemingly at his best in such environments – situations that would seem insanely hard to any other CEO – but it's truly something to behold over such an extended length. Even after the first question is about his – clearly precarious at the time – health, [he is in complete command](https://500ish.com/in-command-a511a9a83d98?ref=spyglass.org). He either has a thoughtful answer to every question – often after taking several seconds in silence to think about what he's going to say – or he says he doesn't know and hands it off. And he just keeps going until every question is answered. At one point, Jobs has Scott Forstall, then Apple's head of software, step in to answer something – *and he's not even on stage*. Again, I was there, but it was hard to appreciate just what a masterclass that was in real time – perhaps especially when you're [filing](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/16/apple-kicks-of-iphone-4-press-conference-with-antenna-song/?ref=spyglass.org) [multiple](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/16/antennagate-complaints-returns-and-call-drops-are-all-extremely-low/?ref=spyglass.org) [stories](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/16/antennagate-complaints-returns-and-call-drops-are-all-extremely-low/?ref=spyglass.org) in real time. And to bring it back around to AI, obviously this situation is a far larger deal than "Antennagate" [ended up being](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/10/iphone-4-antenna-case-2/?ref=spyglass.org). But still, videos like this one of Jobs make you wonder how he would have handled such a situation. It's times like this where the industry [really](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/) [misses](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/) [that voice](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/). "I wish we could have done this in the first 48 hours for you, but then you wouldn’t have had so much to write about," Jobs says to close out the Q&A, as everyone laughs. **One more thing:** the main thing I recall from that press conference before rewatching it just now was *the first thing* from that press conference: [the video that opened it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKIcaejkpD4&ref=spyglass.org). Probably because [I perhaps played a small role](https://songadaymann.medium.com/steve-jobs-danced-to-my-song-9e805c0f482d?ref=spyglass.org) in [making it happen](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/16/iphone-4-antenna-song/?ref=spyglass.org). And yes, that's Steve Jobs really dancing to it as he walks onto the stage! ### Star Wars: Episode Tentative URL: https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-ten-tative/ Last updated: 2026-09-27T15:09:10.000Z 🔗 Lucasfilm Circling Director Jon Watts To Helm ‘Star Wars: Episode X’ (EXCLUSIVE) • Knight Edge Media Cue the *Star Wars* opening crawl... > Earlier this week, we at **Knight Edge Media** learned exclusively that a director had been found for the next **Star Wars** trilogy from screenwriter **Simon Kinberg** (X-Men: Days of Future Past, Star Wars: Rebels). However, at the time, our source couldn’t provide a name, though others in the industry had also heard that a director had been found. Now, two sources tell us Lucasfilm is circling **Jon Watts** (Spider-Man: No Way Home, Star Wars: Skeleton Crew) for the gig. For now, it would be only for Episode X, but that could change. Watts did sign a first-look deal with Walt Disney in 2024 to produce live-action films under his production banner, **Freshman Year** (via [**Deadline**](https://deadline.com/2024/09/spider-man-no-way-home-director-jon-watts-sets-first-look-film-deal-with-walt-disney-studios-1236093031/?ref=spyglass.org)). If the deal is completed, he will follow previous Skywalker Saga directors **George Lucas** (Star Wars: Episodes 1-4), **J.J. Abrams** (Star Wars: Episodes 7 & 9) and **Rian Johnson** (Star Wars: Episode 8). This news, since [backed up by *The Hollywood Reporter*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/star-wars-jon-watts-direct-next-movie-lucasfilm-1236712709/?ref=spyglass.org) as well, is both sort of surprising and not at all surprising. I say that because when the news first got out there that [Kinberg would be writing/producing](https://spyglass.org/new-star-wars-maybe/) a new set of *Star Wars* movies for Disney/Lucasfilm, the studio went out of their way to dispute that it would be the next act in the 'Skywalker Saga'. Of course, it would have been weird to sign up anyone for a trilogy of movies – obviously synonymous with *Star Wars* given the history here, itself done *three* times – and it not to be a Skywalker tale. Every other *Star Wars*\-affiliated project in the works up until that point was a one-off. Presumably, Disney/Lucasfilm just didn't want to put such pressure on Kinberg and/or their stock price if this project didn't pan out – especially with so many *Star Wars* projects fizzling out in recent years. But a number of things have changed in the past year or so. First and foremost, Kathleen Kennedy, who oversaw all the previous franchise entries after Disney's deal to buy Lucasfilm in 2012, is [finally](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) gone. With Dave Filoni [installed](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/183695109/dave-filoni-handed-disneys-lucasfilm-lightsaber?ref=spyglass.org) in her place, there was simply no way he wasn't going to jump in to restart the most famous film franchise. [As I wrote last January on the change](https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-x/): > Reading [all](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/business/star-wars-lucasfilm-kathleen-kennedy.html?ref=spyglass.org) [the](https://www.ft.com/content/d19b26f4-2e4f-467e-9bc6-812964ed82c6?ref=spyglass.org&syn-25a6b1a6=1) [posts](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/star-wars-lucasfilm-kathkleen-kennedy-1236476418/?ref=spyglass.org) about Kathleen Kennedy's ([drawn-out](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/)) exit from Lucasfilm, handing over the reins of the Star Wars universe [to Dave Filoni](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/far-out?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7dave-filoni-handed-disneys-lucasfilm-lightsaber) (and technically, Lynwen Brennan – but Filoni [for creative purposes](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/#:~:text=But%20now%2C%20a%20new%20hope.%20I%27d%20be%20shocked%20if%20anyone%20other%20than%20Dave%20Filoni%20takes%20over%20the%20reins.)), they all sort of dance around the big question: where is he going to take it? They all note the work that's already well underway or in the pipeline, but they're all tangential elements at best. What everyone really wants to know is: when and how he'll do the next Star Wars trilogy? > > Because it's obviously coming. It has to be. You don't give someone the power at Lucasfilm and not let them continue the main stories that everyone cares most about. It would be like taking over Nintendo and never doing another Mario game. Second, Disney now also has a new *overall* CEO in place with Josh D'Amaro [formally](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/the-damaro-kingdom?ref=spyglass.org) and [finally](https://spyglass.org/disney-cruises-to-damaro/) taking the reins from Bob Iger last March. If there's anyone with more pressure/expectations on a new *Star Wars* trilogy than Filoni, it's D'Amaro, for the Disney shareholders he now must please and the board he now must answer to – after a decade of stock stagnation (COVID streaming boom blip aside). Third, Disney keeps trying to do non-Skywalker *Star Wars* projects and they keep failing. Yes, *Andor* was fantastic (though it's technically a prequel to the original trilogy), and some of the animated stuff, like *Maul* (which is Filoni's bread and butter – and also trilogy-tangential), has been very good, but the really big swings, the theatrical *The Mandalorian and Grogu*, [didn't really work](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%91%B6%20Can%20Baby%20Yoda%20Save%20Star%20Wars%3F) – at least at the box office. They need another hit. And what's the easiest way to find that hit?... That said, all [early indications](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184067078/the-on-time-and-on-budget-jedi?ref=spyglass.org) are that *Starfighter*, the Ryan Gosling-led Shawn Levy-directed stand-alone *Star Wars* movie is going to be good. I had sort of been wondering if *that one* wasn't a bit of a head-fake, that while they're saying it wasn't a Skywalker story, that it could somehow morph into one. Maybe that's still in the cards, but this news makes it less likely, obviously. Maybe this is all as simple as Kinberg's early work on the project being deemed promising?[1](#one) Then again, the *THR* report notes that while Watts is now attached, it hasn't been formally greenlit yet... Speaking of Watts, [here's Borys Kitt](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/star-wars-jon-watts-direct-next-movie-lucasfilm-1236712709/?ref=spyglass.org): > Watts is seen as a reliable choice for the franchise, which has occasionally, and would say famously, struggled with directors. After directing the indie thriller *Cop Car*, Watts was chosen by Marvel to helm the relaunch of the Spider-Man movies. The Tom Holland-starring movies, which included 2017’s *Homecoming*, 2019’s *Far From Home*, and 2021’s *No Way Home*, became progressively bigger productions and bigger hits at the box office. Watts proved he could navigate the complexities of massive big-budget productions. "Reliable" is, of course, also a nice way of saying "bland" or "boring" or "safe". Beyond helming his own trilogy of sorts with *Spider-Man*,[2](#two) he co-wrote and co-created *Skeleton Crew*, the Disney+ *Star Wars* series. But while that was generally well-reviewed, it also wasn't really a hit. Still, unlike, [say, *The Acolyte*](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-mostly-sucked/), it wasn't [super-divisive](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/), it just seemed sort of stuck between age demographics. And the same "reliable" label could be applied to Levy – there was [an entire profile](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/movies/shawn-levy-star-wars-stranger-things.html?ref=spyglass.org) on this point! – and that seemingly has worked out for Disney. At least so far. Such safe, reliable hands were also *needed* after the turmoil atop the last trilogy. While that [started strong](https://500ish.com/the-force-awoken-9477d745614a?ref=spyglass.org) (if yes, *safe*, especially given how derivative – [albeit intentionally](https://500ish.com/so-just-chill-til-the-next-episode-7773f220b61c?ref=spyglass.org) – *The Force Awakens* was of the original film) with J.J. Abrams,[3](#three) when Rian Johnson decided to essentially and immediately retcon that preceding film, the problems started. Johnson made [an interesting movie](https://500ish.com/first-thoughts-on-the-last-jedi-e5f8a9eab522?ref=spyglass.org) in *The Last Jedi*, but it now looks fairly ridiculous in the middle of the Abrams movies. [The last of which](https://500ish.com/the-turbulent-whiplash-inducing-repetitive-landing-of-star-wars-da2e33eae8f0?ref=spyglass.org) basically [retconned the Johnson movie](https://500ish.com/the-retcon-of-the-jedi-33a8088216a6?ref=spyglass.org)! Which perhaps shouldn't be too surprising given that Disney asked Abrams to step back in after firing Colin Trevorrow, who clearly had his own unique take (which, [since leaked](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star%5FWars:%5FDuel%5Fof%5Fthe%5FFates?ref=spyglass.org), and with hindsight, obviously would have been better than what became *The Rise of Skywalker*) that Disney no longer wanted to gamble on. So yeah, the Watts pick makes sense in this context, but it obviously also feels fairly uninspired. But even if they could get, [say](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2102515180156453262?ref=spyglass.org), Christopher Nolan to direct a *Star Wars* film,[4](#four) would Disney honestly even want that? I mean, *yes*, because he's a franchise of his own so it would be guaranteed to be a massive hit, but such a swing may not be great for the longterm health of the actual franchise they aim to protect. Then again, with Kennedy gone, the hope was that they'd perhaps protect it less? This move indicates otherwise. It's early, we'll see.[5](#five) But the internet [has a bad feeling about this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=%5FpcwcHF2FKY&ref=spyglass.org)... **One more thing:** if you've read about Watts around these parts, it's when I wrote a [half-dozen](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-wolfs/) [stories](https://spyglass.org/clooney-pitt-wolfs-apple-theaters/) about his blow-up with Apple over the George Clooney/Brad Pitt movie *Wolfs*. Apple clearly made [the right monetary call](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) in [moving it from theaters](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/) to Apple TV, but it cost [a big reputation hit](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/), especially with the man now potentially helming these new *Star Wars* films! If Apple were to, say, [make a move to buy Disney](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/) in the next few years, that could be awkward! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Clock Starts for Star Wars: Episode XDave Filoni is clearly going to continue the Skywalker Saga, but how?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9039b95f-906a-4cea-b06b-8a84ebe6251f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-24--2026--08_45_40-PM-2-3586f060-7555-4dc7-943e-9e014031ff6b.png)](https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-x/) [Somehow, Star Wars ReturnedWith Kathleen Kennedy set to retire, the Force awakens again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-105df036-1694-478c-b73f-cb5088a53f47.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_bunch_of_people_fighting_with_lightsabers_cartoon_--a_10417081-f699-40c5-aa1b-e5775e906abe_0-1-b8c50626-2994-41da-a5a0-667ba79676cb.png)](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) [More Star Wars! No, Not Those!Disney continues to bungle the Lucasfilm crown jewels…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-7dde31c8-38a2-46cb-a68e-9017b3ec5d64.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--47--1-9d31cd01-f7ce-4833-8228-4ef77154c8c9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/new-star-wars-maybe/) --- 1 Social media wasn't too kind to him on this news given [his filmography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%5FKinberg?ref=spyglass.org#Filmography) which has been, um, mixed as a writer (to put it nicely). But hey at least he won't be *directing*, where his filmography is um, pretty bad (to put it nicely). [↩](#) 2 Though it must be noted that the biggest box office success [of all time domestically](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top%5Flifetime%5Fgross/?ref=spyglass.org) (not taking into account inflation, [of course](https://spyglass.org/spider-man-box-office-record/)) is the *Spider-Man* made *immediately after* Watts stopped directing them. The movie it beat for the top spot? *The Force Awakens*. (Still he claims the #4 spot all-time on that list with *No Way Home*!) [↩](#) 3 Coincidentally last night, I watched *The Force Awakens* for the first time in years (I've been watching [the movies](https://spyglass.org/may-the-4th/) – in order of release, of course – with my older daughter), and it holds up well. Again, it's obviously a big homage to the first film, but I think that was the right tone for such a "reboot". But it also just reminds me how badly they fucked up the Snoke stuff. He could have been legitimately interesting as a new villain, not some strange Darth [MacGuffin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MacGuffin?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 4 The recent [rumor](https://geektyrant.com/news/christopher-nolan-talked-to-george-lucas-about-his-love-for-star-wars-and-fans-are-hoping-for-a-nolan-trilogy?ref=spyglass.org) that George Lucas approached Nolan about helming a *Star Wars* movie [seems to be mostly BS](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/christopher-nolan-star-wars-darth-vader/?ref=spyglass.org), FWIW. Though he is [a known fan from boyhood](https://www.cinemablend.com/star-wars/christopher-nolan-opens-up-fans-always-say-star-wars-disagrees-with?ref=spyglass.org) – having seen the movie with his grandmother in Ohio, which I only mention as I too saw it in Ohio. Did Christopher Nolan and I just become best friends? [Yup!](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/foY9FUuMDp4?themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 5 The Rey angle here is interesting too. Both reports note that she's intended to be a part of any story, but perhaps not the focal point. As the – SPOILER – only remaining Skywalker (and only in name?), there's perhaps a less safe path to (sky)walk there if she's not the main character? Or maybe she will be now that they've shelved her other would-have-been stand-alone film? Maybe there's a way yet to rope in [Steven Soderbergh's very real (at one point) Kylo Ren movie?!](https://spyglass.org/disney-kills-kylo-ren-again/) [↩](#) ### Where is the 'Where I've Been' Service? URL: https://spyglass.org/where-ive-been-service/ Last updated: 2026-09-27T14:46:31.000Z I've been a Foursquare user [since day one](https://venturebeat.com/social/dodgeball-founder-pegs-google-in-the-face-with-foursquare?ref=spyglass.org). Actually well before day one, as I was also a Dodgeball user, before Google [acquired](https://www.engadget.com/2005-05-12-google-buys-dodgeball.html?ref=spyglass.org) and did nothing with the precursor product, [prompting](https://laughingsquid.com/dodgeball-founders-quit-google/?ref=spyglass.org) the founders to leave and start Foursquare. Anyway, what I'm saying is that I have around *20 years* worth of "check in" data with the service. Nearly every place I've been for two decades. That's both wild and useful. I can't tell you how many times over the years I've checked to find "that one place I was at once years ago". In fact, that information is the only reason I've continued to use Foursquare (and more recently, its separate check-in app, Swarm) over the past several years – basically since they [merged with Factual](https://www.wsj.com/articles/foursquare-merges-with-factual-another-location-data-provider-11586193000?ref=spyglass.org) in 2020 and became far more of a data play. Now with the news that [Infillion is buying the combined company](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/infillion-acquires-foursquare-location-data?ref=spyglass.org), I think I'm officially done. Nothing against Infillion, but it's a full-on ad-tech company. Even if I was okay helping to fuel that business for them with my check-ins, I have a hard time believing they're going to focus on the consumer-facing side of the business any further. And again, the reality is that the writing has been on that particular wall for years – a couple years back, the actual Foursquare app (which became the place for recommendations and guides) [were shuttered](https://spyglass.org/quiet-thinking/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%8D%20Farewell%20to,guess.%20%5BTechCrunch%5D), for example. It sucks, but it's also fine. Knowing Foursquare was a startup, I actually started automatically backing up my check-ins about a decade ago to a Google spreadsheet (thanks [Ifttt](https://ifttt.com/?ref=spyglass.org)!) – I just checked, that personal database is now about a dozen spreadsheets deep with *thousands* of places I've been saved. So I guess Google Drive search – and perhaps Gemini – will now be my best friend for such personal historical context. But it's wild to me that since Foursquare ceded this position in the market, there's no other major player really operating here. Gowalla, Foursquare's [old-school](https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/14/foursquare-gowalla-location-war/?ref=spyglass.org) competitor, [long-ago acquired by Facebook](https://techcrunch.com/2011/12/02/report-facebook-has-acquired-gowalla/?ref=spyglass.org), tried to [reboot](https://500ish.com/my-once-and-future-travel-buddy-73b66363d747?ref=spyglass.org) after Snap bought ([and shut down](https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/05/zenly-was-the-best-social-app-and-it-will-sadly-shut-down-on-february-3rd/?ref=spyglass.org)) Zenly. Alas, it wasn't meant to be. There was [some hope](https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/19/with-amo-the-founder-of-zenly-wants-to-make-social-apps-social-again/?ref=spyglass.org) that Zenly's founders were [jumping back into this ring](https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/19/with-amos-third-app-the-makers-of-zenly-release-a-zenly-like-app/?ref=spyglass.org), but it's not clear what, if anything, Amo is at the moment. Snap Maps may be the closest thing we have, but it's a social location layer, not a "places I've been" database. For that, the closest thing is probably Google Maps itself. If you have location history turned on, the product keeps track of where you've been in the background. But it's so comically buried in the Maps app that it's basically useless. When you tap on a location, if you scroll *allll the way to the bottom* and tap again*,* there is an area for "Your visits and Maps history" – which itself is an obtuse series of toggles and generally unhelpful data that can take a while to load. Or there's 'Your timeline' in your profile which, if enabled, is decent for a high level overview of the areas you've been to (and travel around them) but bad at guessing the actual establishments in my experience – far more are wrong than are right, and no one is going to go back and edit those, even if they can remember the correct places. Also, amazingly, there's no search?! Apple Maps also has some notion of 'visited places' they try to capture for you now. But, while prettier than Google's, it's probably even more useless. Oddly, the best option to see where you've been these days is to check your photos! Thanks to geolocation data, you can pull this up via Apple Photos or Google Photos. The latter is a bit better for this with a nice 'Places' area only mildly buried in 'Collections', with nice heat maps of your pictures overlaid on the map. And because Google's search capabilities are better than Apple's (as you'd hope), I now routinely find it the best way to figure out where I've been! But yes, it's a bit of a hack because these are tied to coordinates on a map, not actual locations. So you need to triangulate to get what you're actually looking for. I know there are a handful of smaller services and startups that do some of this better – I've always thought [Fog of World](https://fogofworld.app/en/?ref=spyglass.org) was a fun/great idea – but the reality is that this should probably be baked into one of the major maps apps or services. Not buried in some drawer, but front-and-center: Where I've Been. I realize that most people don't travel as much as I do, so I'm hearing some awfully small violins here in my ear. But at the same time, I've willing to bet that every single person in the world has given recommendations of some sort to someone else about where to go, even if it's in their own hometown. Maybe they remember all those places by heart, but perhaps they don't. That one coffee shop two towns over, the park that's 40 minutes away that we went to that one time, etc. That kind of stuff. This is useful to everyone! Not necessarily for your own information, but certainly to tell someone else when they inevitably ask. Also sometimes just to remember. And in the Age of AI, such information becomes potentially more interesting and powerful. If you can pull up the sushi spot you want to recommend to someone via a natural language query – [perhaps even](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) with [only your voice](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) – that's clearly going to be useful. So useful that it sounds like an Apple commercial for Siri, but I don't think they're doing enough on the location logging side to make this seamlessly work. Because no one was except for Foursquare, and now they're a data broker owned by an ad-tech company! I mean I guess you could say that Google is technically an ad-tech company too. Still, they control a map that *billions* of people use. And so it might be worth making such functionality actually useful. Not to share with the world, like you could with Foursquare, but to share with people who ask for your recommendation on something. We should be able to have such information instantly at our fingertips now. And yet as we bury Foursquare, it's just wild how buried "Where I've Been" information is... ### Inklings #027 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-vision-pro-copilots-super-app-streaming-ads-doj-helps-apple/ Last updated: 2026-09-25T14:49:37.000Z Aside from [out-Googling Google](https://spyglass.org/why-didnt-google-build-muse/) with [their AI personal assistant Muse](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/), it's arguably more impressive that Meta *appears* to have out-Apple'd Apple by turning the just-okay Quest into what sure sounds like a better version of the Vision Pro. Yes, Apple's device undoubtedly still has nicer touches here and there, but that doesn't really matter when you completely flubbed the big stuff – [quite literally](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/). With the caveat that I've not yet tried it, the Meta VR Glasses [sure *sound* like](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-connect-keynote/) what Apple [should have waited](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) to ship as the v1 of Vision Pro... 🔗 Meta Unveils the Vision Pro Apple Should Have Shipped • Spyglass **Aside: the Cleveland Guardians are* [**back in the playoffs*](https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=401817061&ref=spyglass.org)**. Taylor Swift has* [**a new song entitled "Cleveland!"*](https://fox8.com/news/taylor-swift-to-drop-new-cleveland-song/?ref=spyglass.org)**. Even the city's orchestra is* [**making headlines*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/arts/music/cleveland-orchestra-strike.html?ref=spyglass.org) *today. The stars are aligning for a truly magical 3-14 season from the Browns.* ⚾️🎤🏈 ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **🛩️** [**The Copilot "Super App" Lands**](https://www.theverge.com/news/1000532/microsoft-copilot-super-app-chat-coding-autopilot?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Well, more like it *will be arriving* soon-ish – some elements will be in limited preview "in the coming weeks", other elements will be in preview later this month. It feels like Microsoft wanted to get this out there now with [all the other agentic activity](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-the-great-ai-agent-race-a-super-ai-rebrand-attempt/) – and perhaps [a few more options](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) dropping soon, including from key [frenemy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) OpenAI. Overall, this sounds good on paper – unifying [what has been a mess](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) of Copilot options and brands into three tabs: Home, Code, and Autopilot. The latter is the rebranding of their Scout agent, and [as I've said before](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/), is *great* branding when paired with Copilot – [a huge achievement for Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-office-brand-ruined/)! Basically, 'Home' is for chat (and 'Cowork' which is funny since [Anthropic *just* unified these](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-camera-less-glasses-apples-surveillance-claude-unifies-prime-bundles-dario-writes-bond-jack-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Anthropic%20Merges%20Claude%20Chat%20and%20Cowork)), 'Code' is for coding, and 'Autopilot' is for agentic work. And they're not trying to [go after Muse](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) (though there is a name/cute face option for your agent – [not the cloud blob guy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) nor Clippy), this is all about work (but [might those worlds collide at some point](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/)?). So it's a question of how much the deep Office integration will matter alongside the ability to mix and match models from other vendors. Again, that *sounds* compelling on paper – certainly for orgs that are Microsoft shops. But that was the case with the [other instantiations of Copilot](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/) and it hasn't really [mattered](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) to date. I would say that perhaps the product is key here, but Teams has long been a crap product and that hasn't really mattered, so it's gotta be something else. Again, maybe it's [the model picker](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/). Because the *business* model still sounds a bit convoluted (usage-based in the app but license-based for the Copilot integrations elsewhere). **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/1000532/microsoft-copilot-super-app-chat-coding-autopilot?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📺** [**Premium Streaming Ads**](https://www.polygon.com/disney-plus-subscriber-agreement-ads-every-plan/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** A change to the Disney+ subscriber agreement would seem to suggest that the service may soon try to inject ads into their higher-priced tiers that have typically been ad-free. Hopefully this is just around sports, where [such practice is obviously the norm](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/) due to how those broadcasts are constructed (which is, *around ad breaks*). But it also feels inevitable that ads will creep into all tiers eventually. Death. Taxes. Ads. [Everywhere](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-product/). ([Even](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/) [Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/).) There's simply too much money to be made – especially when those paying the highest prices are likely the most lucrative base to advertise to. That was always a mismatch. So will prices come down as a result? LOL. I'm sorry, you must be new here. WWND? [What Will Netflix Do](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/)? **\[**[**Polygon**](https://www.polygon.com/disney-plus-subscriber-agreement-ads-every-plan/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **⚖️** [**DoJ Rides to Apple's Rescue**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/22/u-s-government-urges-supreme-court-to-reverse-apple-contempt-ruling-over-app-store-commission/?ref=spyglass.org) – At first glance, this may seem like some political funny business – which [this current DoJ clearly isn't above](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/23/trump-press-ban-brief?ref=spyglass.org)! – did [Tim Apple](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump-apple-eu/) get [his buddy](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/) in the Oval Office to help here? But actually, this may be far more in the technical legal weeds. Apple has been arguing that, again, technically, they shouldn't be able to be [held in contempt](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) over their 27% commission [funny business](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/) because that rate was never a part of the ruling. The Judge would undoubtedly argue that Apple violated the *spirit* of [her ruling](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) with their (again, comical as it [actually *raises* rates](https://spyglass.org/apples-lol-fee/) on developers when they have to take care of their own payment processing separately) actions. But her move to put that rate at 0% was obviously over-the-top in the *other direction*, and subsequent appeals made clear *some kind of commission* was likely permissible. But if Apple can get this all [further](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/) [delayed](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/)... well, that may just save the App Store business and thus, the [all-important](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/) Services business for Apple. [For now](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/), at least. **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/22/u-s-government-urges-supreme-court-to-reverse-apple-contempt-ruling-over-app-store-commission/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... 🔗 The Apple Natural • Spyglass 🔗 Why Didn't Google Build Muse? • Spyglass ### I Quote... > "I've seen Steve say it, and I've seen Tim say it. And so having the opportunity for me to say it was pretty magical. Kind of goosebumps." – **John Ternus** [on his](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=543zTHAylEY&ref=spyglass.org) first "[one more thing](https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/)" moment in [an Apple keynote](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/). ### Thoughts On... 🔗 Amazon Blocks Meta's Muse • iPhone Duo Pencil Pivot 🔗 The Great AI Agent Race • A "Super" AI Rebrand Attempt ### Asides... - On a scale of 1 to Begrudgingly, how much do you think **Apple** wanted to renew any sort of **contract** with **Qualcomm**? But this is seemingly about patent licensing not actual chips [any longer](https://spyglass.org/stepping-out/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20ARM%20to%20Scrap%20Qualcomm%20Chip%20Design%20License%20in%20Feud%20Escalation)... **\[**[**Six Colors**](https://sixcolors.com/link/2026/09/apple-renews-qualcomm-patent-deal/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **AT&T** is scorning Apple's new '**iPhone Handoff**' feature to easily swap your phone number between devices. Not even [charging extra](https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/t-mobile-charging-for-iphone-handoff/?ref=spyglass.org), just not offering it. We're a long way from that special relationship as the iPhone launch partner, it [seems](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/)... **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/23/att-iphone-handoff-support/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta** is racing Roblox to create the AI **Gaming Slop** market. Maybe there will be an ephemeral [Flappy Bird](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flappy%5FBird?ref=spyglass.org) hit here and there (thanks to a boost by Instagram or Facebook), but come on... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/games/999972/meta-horizon-create-studio-ai-games?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Google** is launching their first **data centers in space** test which sounds promising (on paper and in labs), but also like none of this will be viable at any sort of scale for a decade at least. [Shocker, I know](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/technology/google-suncatcher-ai-data-center-space.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - With **Microsoft** busy cleaning up Copilot, it sure seems like the **Copilot+ PCs** [brand](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) may not be long for this world either... **\[**[**Windows Central**](https://www.windowscentral.com/microsoft/windows-11/the-copilot-pc-brand-is-dead-microsoft-and-pc-makers-quietly-pull-back-on-tarnished-windows-11-ai-pc-branding?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **YouTube** beat out Netflix and Prime Video to maintain their **Coachella** streaming rights. Why? Beyond money, the festival cares about the wider reach a free tier brings in – [another push](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) for Netflix there... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/youtube-beats-amazon-netflix-to-clinch-coachella-livestream-through-2030?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Meanwhile, **YouTube** has weighed in on **Meta's** call for them to join [their social media settlement](https://spyglass.org/metas-poke-on-the-wrist/): NFW. **\[**[**CNN**](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/23/tech/youtube-ceo-meta-child-safety-settlement?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **TikTok** hasn't formally weighed in, but is blocking **Meta** from advertising the proposal on their network. So yeah, ditto. **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/tiktok-meta-ads-children-safety-settlement?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - After nearly two years on ice, **Apple** has oh-so-quietly put ***The Savant***, the Jessica Chastain show [they pulled at the last minute](https://spyglass.org/the-savant-apple/) clearly worried about political pressure and backlash, back on the schedule. **\[**[**Deadline**](https://deadline.com/2026/09/jessica-chastain-the-savant-new-release-date-apple-tv-1237108228/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Bob Chapek** strikes back! Or tries to, with his new memoir taking aim at his [fellow Bob](https://500ish.com/a-cook-in-disneys-kitchen-978504b9a5b9?ref=spyglass.org), **Iger**. He ups the backstabbing claims to lays out a COVID-related conspiracy around Iger's abrupt exit to throw Chapek under that oncoming bus... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/business/media/disney-bob-chapek-bob-iger.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote (Soylent Green Edition)... 🔗 Soylent Googlebook is Android • Spyglass 🔗 Meta Muse is People • Spyglass ### I Spy... Speaking of Big Tech meddling in Hollywood, I meant to link to it a couple weeks back, but you can pretty clearly see [why Amazon dumped *Artificial*](https://spyglass.org/amazon-kills-openai-movie/) – aka the OpenAI "Blip" movie – to indie distributor Neon: the trailer alone is [dark as fuck](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/artificial-trailer-andrew-garfield-sam-altman-1236693901/?ref=spyglass.org). This is, um, not going to help with the [overall AI narrative challenges](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/). But if you can look past the guns in the bunker, Andrew Garfield sure seems to have Sam Altman's gait down perfect. 🎶 Listening to [****"Cleveland!" by Taylor Swift**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-C9t4MLrbA&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Northern Monk**](https://www.northernmonk.com/?ref=spyglass.org) **Amy Hastings IPA** 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### Meta Unveils the Vision Pro Apple Should Have Shipped URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-vr-glasses-vision-pro/ Last updated: 2026-09-27T14:53:22.000Z Two and a half years ago, just weeks after the launch of the Vision Pro, [it was clear to me](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) that Apple had made a mistake. They simply had no business launching the product in [that current state](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/). For all the talk of the company missing Steve Jobs' product vision, they clearly at least missed his ruthless feedback [and curation](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) here. The product that shipped [should have been](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/) a dev kit – at best. [Yesterday](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-connect-keynote/), we saw the first glimpse of the product that *should have* launched. The only problem for Apple is that it's made by Meta. To be clear, I'm still not sure how much of an actual problem this will be for Apple. Simply because [I'm still not sure](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) what the market for VR headsets looks like in 2027\. But I know that a $1,299 device seems about *three times* more enticing than a $3,699 version. And a 100 gram pair of glasses that you can slip on rather than a 700 gram brick that you strap on to your face sounds about *seven times* more enticing. You'll still [look like a complete jackass](https://spyglass.org/vision-profoundly-uncool/), but at least you won't *feel* as much like one! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-24-at-10.28.54---PM.png) That is to say, while the Meta VR Glasses still aren't perfect, they at least seem like a reasonable thing for consumers to buy. The Vision Pro was not. Even the second iteration – speed boosted, and *heavier* – was not. To be fair, this is also not Meta's first attempt in the space – far from it – but they've been [willing to stick with it](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) and keep iterating relatively fast whereas it seems like Apple has [mainly moved on](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/). Will this Meta product bring them back to the table? Maybe, but they have other fish to fry, namely in [trying to combat](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) Meta's *actual* hit product in their smartglasses. Granted, they're not an Apple-sized hit – far from it – but Apple clearly feels the need to mobilize before they get such scale. Cupertino clearly wants to run their playbook and [take such a product mainstream](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/). So the Vision Pro gets left in the rearview for now. But again, the Meta VR Glasses look like the v1 Apple should have shipped of the Vision Pro. [It was almost exactly two years ago that I wrote](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) about the obvious mistake Apple made it not offloading the onboard compute to a puck as Meta's prototypes were doing – especially if you were already forced to have a tethered external battery pack! My god that was a stupid design decision. I'm sure there was more to it with latency and what not. But come on. Further, it seems like Meta was actually able to [take some learnings](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-quest/) from Apple to figure out what people want out of such a device. In a not-so-subtle callback to Jobs' original iPhone unveil, Meta kept reiterating that the VR Glasses were three products in one: a private cinema, a game console, and a computer. That is *exactly* what the Vision Pro [should be,](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/) yet isn't. The Quest [wasn't better](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-versus-meta-quest/) than Vision Pro, but the Meta VR Glasses very well could be. Further, here's [Mark Gurman reporting on Meta's product for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/meta-launches-1-299-vr-headset-that-look-like-glasses-to-rival-apple-vision-pro?ref=spyglass.org): > In an interview, Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth said the company owes Apple “a little bit of a debt of gratitude.” He said many entertainment partners first became excited about immersive computing because of the Vision Pro and credited Apple with giving the industry “permission to explore split architectures,” helping inspire Meta’s external-pack design. > > “I think they definitely were pioneers on some of those pieces for us and did the heavy lifting,” Bosworth said. “But otherwise, there’s not a huge comparison,” he said, noting the lower price and weight. > > “We all know they missed the mark in that you just couldn’t wear that thing for very long,” Bosworth added. “It wasn’t glasses — you looked goofy wearing it.” Again, to be clear, from what I've seen, you will *still* [look goofy](https://spyglass.org/vision-bro-ban/) wearing the Meta VR Glasses. Well, that's a bit unfair. You will look like you are wearing medical glasses due to a loss of vision. If anything, Meta's glasses look *more* like those that the vision impaired wear because they are glasses and not a headset. But they'll also likely still be mainly worn at home. Or they'll be about a million times easier to carry on and use on a plane. But I digress. Boz is correct in his other points. Meta can run here because Apple crawled. Apple was [so fucking slow](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-immersive-content/) in rolling out content tailored for the Vision Pro, but now that it's [starting to](https://spyglass.org/what-if-disney-vision-pro/) roll in, Meta is right there to take advantage. Sure, things shot for Vision Pro may not directly translate to Meta's glasses, but there are probably ways to make it all work pretty well. Back in April 2024, [I wondered if](https://spyglass.org/imax/) Apple would strike a deal with IMAX to more directly translate that format to their headset. [Well guess who did](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/23/meta-is-trying-vr-glasses-again-this-time-with-more-imax/?ref=spyglass.org)? Apple [thawed](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) the content producers [mindset](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/) around [making](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) and tailoring such newfangled content – [including with sports](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/). Meta will now benefit from Apple's too-early mistakes as they largely sit back and watch from the sidelines. How very Apple of Meta. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-24-at-10.28.31---PM.png) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Oh, the Humanity of Vision ProApple really should have released the Vision Pro as a dev kit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-88dc2611-a166-4c12-8550-9b5d1fb8f93d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hindenburg-Disaster-18d94e64-22c4-432e-8457-c54d836ccaa0.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) [Can Meta Make Headsets Happen?Can Apple? Can anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1878910e-8ed4-4b7f-b784-6c03f359b330.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_worn_in_the_future_--ar_21_--v_7_8fe8289a-5ebe-4d01-bfd8-fc05b090a7f2_3-e816887a-1928-4bf2-8623-09459bea4a6f.png)](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) [Apple Becomes the PupilSnap and Meta teach Apple a lesson…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c09c9cc3-b0be-40da-aacb-ce503cd43db5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-01-14.13.29---A-close-up--detailed-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-human-eye--with-the-Apple-logo-centered-in-the-iris.-The-eye-should-be-expressive--with-a-reflect-8d26e983-98c1-4ec5-9472-d786e7df4f52.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/) [Vision Pro’s Inconvenient TruthIf you start me up If you start me up, I’ll never stop. The Rolling Stones song, incidentally the one used to launch Windows 95, is stuck in my head. Because it’s what I keep thinking about while trying to start using the Vision Pro. And I do![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6868d4b0-6174-4133-97ce-c99a7cbdfdcc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_8269-1-04180f03-b955-4abd-83c5-2cb0f7f5dd86.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/) [Apple Knew Where the Puck Was Going, But Meta Skated ThereMeta’s “Orion” points to the vision of an Apple “Visor”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8c0dfed9-52b0-4253-a8fc-30d48306182e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-09-29-22.46.08---A-sleek-and-futuristic-Apple-Vision-Pro-visor--designed-with-smooth-curves-and-a-minimalistic-aesthetic.-The-visor-features-a-seamless--glossy-black-f-001b0ab0-9fd7-4ab2-818a-a6b27583c6b1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) ### The M-pire Strikes Back URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-connect-keynote/ Last updated: 2026-09-24T20:09:14.000Z This was, without question, the most comfortable I've ever seen Mark Zuckerberg on stage. Over the years, he's oscillated from awkward to cocksure or worse, some combination of the two, which largely seemed to reflect the state of Meta itself. If that's the case, [this year's Connect keynote](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdKFDIAGF24&ref=spyglass.org) may indicate a company coming back into its own. *Sixteen years ago*, when the company was called Facebook and the conference was called f8, my overall takeaway from the keynote was, "[I Think Facebook Just Seized Control Of The Internet](https://techcrunch.com/2010/04/21/facebook/?ref=spyglass.org)". While that wasn't quite the height of their social networking powers – Facebook had a "mere" 400 million users then – they were clearly getting there. Confident enough to attempt to challenge Google for control of the web. Depending on your vantage point, it either never fully worked, or worked too well, but it felt like roughly the company's last peak, in confidence, at least. Two years after that keynote, Facebook bought Instagram – for, [Dr. Evil voice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJR1H5tf5wE&ref=spyglass.org): **one billion dollars**. While many found that crazy at the time, with the benefit of hindsight,[1](#one) it seemed more like an acknowledgement that they could no longer *build* what's next, [they needed to buy it](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/). Two years after that, they repeated the trick by spending – Dr. Evil voice: **nineteen billion dollars** – on WhatsApp.[2](#two) In between those two deals, they tried to buy Snapchat, but when Evan Spiegel rejected their offer - for, Dr. Evil voice: **three billion dollars** – Zuck moved into [kill mode](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/), launching a half dozen efforts to end their younger rival. None worked, but by 2016, they finally got the model right – perhaps by sucking it up and owning that copying was *exactly* what they were doing with Stories inside of Instagram. Anyway, sorry for the history lesson, but my point is that it has been a long while since there's been this kind of feeling around the company – again, at least when it comes to keynotes. And after [a decade in the wilderness](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) searching for What's Next™ – [private messaging](https://500ish.com/mark-zuckerberg-just-put-facebook-into-maintenance-mode-67e92cf64c58?ref=spyglass.org), crypto, and yes, [the metaverse](https://500ish.com/facebooks-second-act-c15d2cce207d?ref=spyglass.org) – they seem to have found it. Zuckerberg acknowledged as much on stage yesterday. While he's stated before that they perhaps erred in thinking that the VR (and AR) stuff would get here before the AI stuff, he [finally acknowledged](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) that "we've shifted our focus". I mean, duh. But before this keynote, it wasn't entirely clear that their massive AI bet – no Dr. Evil voice needed, as we're talking **hundreds of billions of dollars** – was actually going to fully pay off. Honestly, the scale is such that we probably can't be sure for another several years, but the um, vision, seems crystal clear now. What's wild is that the real linchpin of the entire keynote only [came into being](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) in the past couple of weeks! Muse. Yes, it's [early](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-ai-humans/). Again, two weeks! But the early data Meta is seeing is clearly enough to push Zuck all-in here. He kicked off talking about Muse and ended talking about Muse. With a whole lot of Muse sprinkled in between. Muse. Muse. Muse. Meta. Mark. The four-letter M-pire. If Facebook was mentioned, I'm struggling to recall it. I think Instagram maybe got a couple shout-outs at most. And WhatsApp perhaps one (in relation to security). Meta has moved on. The social networks and services remain [the glue](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) holding the actual business together, but this is a *very* different company now. To that end, I thought Zuckerberg's opening address was good! He was cool, calm, and collected. And yes, confident. He was close [last year](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) in his attempt to reframe the company around AI, but it was too predicated [around the smart glasses](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/). Those are clearly going well for Meta, but they're one endpoint[3](#three) – despite Zuck's clear obsession with [pushing the iPhone into the background](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) which is still [not going to happen](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) any time soon, [if ever](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) – AI is the means, and Muse is the harness. Now the new 'Meta Audio Glasses' – [take that, PervPods!](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/) – can be another endpoint. And the new 'Meta VR Glasses' another still – [take that, Apple](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/)! Yes, even the perhaps two-times-too-cute 'Muse Charm' – [take that, OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/)![4](#four) In this opening, Zuckerberg bridged the old Meta (Facebook) with the new Meta (Muse) by saying it has always been about empowering people (while sticking it [to the Doomers](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/)). I mean, he has said this *a lot* over the years. But it has always felt a bit hollow, until now. I'm just not sure that using Meta AI to make what many consider to be "[AI slop](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/)" or "[social slop](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/)" was really helping people, but you can certainly [see](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) how Muse can! I might also point out that it seems indisputable at this point that Meta's social products, while technically helping billions to connect, [had some consequences](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) – unintended or not – that hurt many. Perhaps millions. [And while a settlement](https://spyglass.org/metas-poke-on-the-wrist/), legally, isn't an admission of guilt, it's certainly an acknowledgement that they'd like to move on. But the reality there is that you can't really move on until you give people something else to talk about. Even [a full-on name change](https://500ish.com/verse-meta-verse-f6ea5ba548c3?ref=spyglass.org) didn't work. [Aaron Sorkin has not forgotten](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/magazine/aaron-sorkin-interview.html?ref=spyglass.org). A true reinvention requires invention. As impossible as it seems now, maybe in 50 years we'll remember Meta as the AI company and not the social media company. Nintendo was once a playing card company. Nokia was a pulp mill.[5](#five) I acknowledge that such ideas and commentary will make people angry right now. I get it. A lot of people really, *really* dislike Meta. Some even *hate* the company. Even more distrust it, which is obviously a big problem for a product like Muse. Which is why security was such a focus from day one. But [that's going to take time](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2101061010480079149?ref=spyglass.org). To hear Zuckerberg tell it right now, they don't even intend to monetize Muse through advertising. That's practically Meta's entire business at the moment! To be clear, he left the door open by noting that their *current* plan is to take "a small fee" from transactions facilitated by their agents (and undoubtedly to upsell usage credits to the "Whales"), but if nothing else, I suspect that Feed inside Muse will prove too enticing. But the point is that these are the lengths which Meta is going to try to distance themselves from the old company. Again, they still need those profits, so they can pour them right back into [the AI build-out](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/), but those services are [more or less](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/) in maintenance mode – or rather, [milking mode](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). Milk, another four-letter 'M' word. Funny that. "Stay optimistic out there," was Zuckerberg's short and sweet sendoff – again, taking a swipe at [the current AI narratives](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/). There [finally](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-context-watermelon-hatch/) seems to be [reasons](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-the-great-ai-agent-race-a-super-ai-rebrand-attempt/) to be optimistic about his company once again. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/QQYUJTSCRVKP5HHMUZLUACAV3A.jpeg) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta’s Amusing MuseThey shipped a pretty killer AI assistant, can they keep people using it?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8d595c62-1b98-4c0c-b1f6-d8b258b3e843.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_2734-1-38eb6d62-f05c-4e56-a80f-96d26e429275.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) [Can Someone Finally Architect Personal Assistant AI?The always promised product that always fails to deliver…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d2edf8ac-8f6e-4c9f-afe7-32c9c2c6eb32.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-1--2026--08_40_25-PM-0748be2e-9bb8-4a25-9681-713c4914d56b.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-96c5874b-4a62-4c13-80fe-77279f570f59.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3-64b4f3f2-7fc1-42a0-a9ba-25bef2d1b7e1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) --- 1 Though I'll just note that the deal didn't seem [crazy](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/20/instagram/?ref=spyglass.org) to *all* of us [at the time](https://parislemon.com/post/20833947117/one-burbn-one-scotch-one-beer?ref=spyglass.org) :) [↩](#) 2 It's wild to think back to how much money $19B seemed like at the time, and how quaint the amount seems now in the Age of AI. We're seeing *talent deals* – "hackquisitions" not full acquisitions – [happen for more money](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/). [↩](#) 3 One which many, [including yes, Apple](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/), will be gunning for soon. [↩](#) 4 Meta was in full-on *Godfather* take-out-enemies mode, also announcing a partnership with Walmart (and a handful of other partners) days after [Amazon blocked Muse](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-amazon-blocks-metas-muse-apples-iphone-duo-pencil-pivot/). [↩](#) 5 Yes, I'm purposefully avoiding the companies with far more notorious and problematic beginnings for obvious reasons, like Hugo Boss and Volkswagen. [↩](#) ### The Great AI Agent Race • A "Super" AI Rebrand Attempt URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-the-great-ai-agent-race-a-super-ai-rebrand-attempt/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T09:09:02.000Z Muse has likely kicked the AI agentic race that was already well underway into a higher gear, with seemingly all of Big Tech and Big AI set to respond. Or should I say, Big "SI" – you know, "Super Intelligence" the bigly branding that everyone is clearly going to adopt ASAP... Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta Muse is People URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-ai-humans/ Last updated: 2026-09-23T09:53:21.000Z 🔗 Meta Has Been Testing a 'Human Concierge' For Its New Personal AI Agent, Muse • Reuters Basically impossible for me to ignore this headline after yesterday's "[Soylent Googlebook is Android](https://spyglass.org/googlebook-android/)". As Katie Paul reports: > Meta has been testing a “human concierge” for its new personal AI assistant, Muse, which entails having human contractors quietly handle some of the phone calls placed via the digital agent, according to internal company posts seen by Reuters. > > The Facebook and Instagram owner told employees about the test last week, shortly after the company publicly launched a phone-calling feature for Muse. > > The Muse agent, which has topped US app download charts in the two weeks since its debut, is designed to autonomously perform tasks like sending emails, shopping and booking ‌travel on a person’s behalf. > > With the phone-calling feature, a Muse user can tell the agent to dial phone numbers for US businesses and talk with people on the other end to handle errands like booking haircuts, checking whether a store has an item in stock or getting quotes from different contractors. On one hand, this could not be any less surprising. This type of outsourcing-AI-to-humans happened a lot in the previous iterations of AI.[1](#one) As the story goes on to note, Meta's long-forgotten first attempt at a virtual assistant [from over a decade ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%5F%28virtual%5Fassistant%29?ref=spyglass.org) – so long ago that they were still called Facebook – 'M' was leveraging this hybrid system.[2](#two) The difference, I suppose, is that everyone actually believes in the AI to not only *work*, but to be able to do these tasks autonomously now. It's quite the dichotomy to read headlines about AI being [on the verge of destroying humanity](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/), while at the same time reading stories that it can't figure out how to make a phone call. The bigger problem here for Meta, of course, is the trust issue. [Muse is a great product](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/). That doesn't mean it will ultimately work as the 'AI personal assistant' holy grail product – a space with just [as many corpses](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) as any other over decades of attempts – but I think it has the best shot of anything I've seen to date. And again, that's in part because the AI is real this time. Well, real enough! But, as my inbox can attest, [a lot of people](https://spyglass.org/why-didnt-google-build-muse/) have trouble envisioning using such a product from Meta – *because it's from Meta*. And so when there are headlines that actually the AI, which they promise has your data and information sandboxed away and safe, may be leveraging humans – *contractors at call centers, no less* – that feels... not great. Sort of like a bait-and-switch.[3](#three) And, well, Meta's own employees recognize this issue: > Some employees have raised privacy concerns about humans handling those calls, warning that the approach could result in sensitive information being shared unintentionally with contractors in call centers, the internal posts showed. > > “It’s baffling to me why we think this feature is worth the risk,” one employee wrote in ‌an internal post. “We are one bug away from unnecessary information being leaked to human callers.” To be fair to Meta here, this feature was very much in beta testing mode and not live for all Muse users. But they were also clearly rushing to get it out there, undoubtedly to compete with other offerings from [products like Instinct](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/17/rival-ai-agents-instinct-and-metas-muse-both-add-the-ability-to-make-calls/?ref=spyglass.org) (which leads one to naturally wonder how *they* were pulling off the phone calling features...). Would they have disclosed the human-in-the-literal-loop if it launched? I mean, hopefully! Instead, they decided to roll-it-back for now, it seems. The bigger picture remains that we're probably going to see more such hybrid approaches at the edges of AI as agents rise and try to crack real world tasks. The AI is better now, but there are still too many things in the real world that sort of require humans in some capacity – at least until the *actual* robots come. --- 1 How about 'outsourcing-AI-to-I'? [↩](#) 2 'M' of course, [reminds me of James Bond](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%5F%28James%5FBond%29?ref=spyglass.org), which seems fitting given [my own Muse bot's name](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/)... [↩](#) 3 How about 'bAIt-and-switch'? [↩](#) ### Soylent Googlebook is Android URL: https://spyglass.org/googlebook-android/ Last updated: 2026-09-22T13:39:04.000Z [I was there Gandalf](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q63%5FFxegFsQ&ref=spyglass.org). I was there 3,000 years ago when Google unveiled ChromeOS. Back in 2009, this was a big deal and my headline for *TechCrunch* at the time, '[Google Drops A Nuclear Bomb On Microsoft. And It's Made of Chrome.](https://techcrunch.com/2009/07/07/google-drops-a-nuclear-bomb-on-microsoft-and-its-made-of-chrome-2/?ref=spyglass.org)' made some (shock)waves. The basic idea was that the web had [disrupted](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/) the dominance of Microsoft, and so building an operating system completely around a web browser would be the final nail in the coffin. But the reality is that ChromeOS didn't destroy Windows – because Microsoft was busy destroying Windows themselves. By the time Satya Nadella rose to CEO [in 2014](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/), it was clear that the future of the company would be the cloud and services, not operating systems. A year earlier, Apple started giving away macOS (then still called OS X) for free – well, provided you bought their highly priced hardware, of course. That's where their money was. And the iPhone rose to become a far bigger business than the Mac ever was. At best, ChromeOS was disrupting yesterday's market. And the rise of Android just drove this home, and was awkward for Google. Chromebooks did well in taking over the education market – [largely from Apple!](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/) – but the market that truly mattered was the smartphone. Which brings us to the Googlebook. While [the company framed it around AI](https://spyglass.org/googlebook/) during their initial unveiling back in May, [all the coverage](https://www.techmeme.com/260921/p24?ref=spyglass.org#a260921p24) around the launch this week makes it pretty clear that it's far more about Android. Oddly, Google opted not to call it that, and keeps trying to talk up the more hybrid nature of ChromeOS and Android here, but [every](https://www.theverge.com/tech/998095/googlebook-laptop-android-continue-on-app-cast?ref=spyglass.org) [single](https://www.zdnet.com/tech/googlebook-hands-on-acer-asus-dell-hp-lenovo-android-laptops/?ref=spyglass.org) [story](https://9to5google.com/2026/09/21/googlebook-os-hands-on/?ref=spyglass.org) I've read focuses on just how Android this all is. In all but name, [as David Pierce writes for *The Verge*](https://www.theverge.com/tech/997972/googlebook-laptop-chromeos-android-history?ref=spyglass.org): > Even the ultimate name of the devices and the software, Googlebook and Googlebook OS, hint at the extent to which Google hopes Aluminium brings everything Google-y together in one place. “We realized pretty quickly that this is about the whole Google experience,” Kuscher says. “If you have a phone that runs Google, and a car, and a laptop, that’s what this is about.” > > (The naming here is a delightful bit of Google chaos, by the way. Googlebooks run Googlebook OS, which is mostly Android, but with some ChromeOS trappings thrown in. Get it? Me neither. They’re Android laptops.) I had been wondering what they might call the OS, and I think I gave them two great options with 'Google OS' or 'gOS'. Alas they chose the bland, seeming straightforward yet somehow still confusing route in 'Googlebook OS'. But honestly, reading all of this, they probably should have just gone with some variant of Android to finally unify the OSes. Instead, now we have Android, ChromeOS, and Googlebook OS. Because why have one project when you can turn two into three? [This is the (Google) way](https://spyglass.org/why-didnt-google-build-muse/). The reality is that ChromeOS probably isn't too long for this world. Maybe it continues to exist for that education market, but what consumer buys a Chromebook now? Someone looking for a dirt cheap laptop, perhaps. But the component pricing situation is straining that market and the MacBook Neo [looks awfully attractive](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/), even [now](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) at $699 ($599 for students). Meanwhile – [shocker](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) – all the PC makers are suddenly [launching](https://spyglass.org/inklings-app-store-succession-cybercab-launch-azure-reporting-no-google-breakup-snaps-specs-situation/#:~:text=%5BFOS%5D-,I%20Spy...,-Oh%20look%2C%20Apple) their own colorful cheap Windows-based machines. And so this may be a hedge of sorts, with Acer, Asus, Dell, HP, and Lenovo all on board here to launch Googlebooks, undoubtedly with more coming – [still no Samsung](https://www.zdnet.com/article/googlebook-looks-promising-but-one-big-question-remains-unanswered/?ref=spyglass.org)?! Or Google themselves? And it may be a smart hedge because these machines are clearly built for people who use Android, which much like the iPhone overtook the Mac, Google's mobile OS is far more widely used than Windows – perhaps two times over. So if you're used to using that OS as your primary computing system, making it the computing system on your PC should make quite a lot of sense to many people. Even with the confusing branding. But you also can't help but wonder if Google isn't sort of a step behind yet again. Yes, they played up AI and Gemini in that May preview, but again, that doesn't seem like what Googlebooks are or Googlebook OS is. Because the project was clearly started before the current Age of AI really took off. Google will undoubtedly try to cram it in wherever they can – just as Microsoft has been [trying to do](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/) with Windows and now even Apple is in macOS – but it's not its essence. Perhaps the fact that it's simply new will prevent any sort of backlash [like Microsoft has seen](https://spyglass.org/microslop-windows/) while trying to inject AI everywhere. We'll see. At the same time, Microsoft is trying to push the broader PC world into the AI Age. [The first Copilot+ PCs](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) don't seem to have [lit the world on fire](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/), so it's try, [try again](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/). This time with a focus on massive memory and chips built for inference – [by NVIDIA, no less](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/). Apple has naturally morphed Mac Studio and [even Mac mini](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/#:~:text=The%20Mac%20Mini%20Fully%20Morphs%20into%20an%20AI%20Machine) to play here as well thanks to their early smart bet on unified memory and [continued](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-apples-nvidia-challenge-snaps-specs-shitshow/#:~:text=for%20thoughts%20on...-,Apple%27s%20NVIDIA%20Play,-Apple%20Considers%20Return) 'neural engine' [work](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chips/). Anyway, my bet would be that there is no truly native 'AI PC' and that instead, people will run AI on the current computing paradigms as long as they're in the cloud. As smaller models [become more capable](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/), some workloads will move to the edge, but these may actually be on [newfangled](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) devices and [wearables](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) like [AirPods](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) and Apple Watch. And yes, the iPhone. Which will remain [the actual computing hub](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) for quite some time, and why I [suspect](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) we'll see other players try to come back into the smartphone space – [even if they don't call it that](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/). That leaves Googlebooks as a sort of interesting PC alternative for the Android-native crowd, but not exactly the future of computing. Incidentally, it may be yet another nail in the Windows coffin, but it also still won't totally nuke that market, thanks to the strongholds of gaming and enterprise. Cute [glowbar](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-hilight-lowlight/) though?[1](#one) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [An Actual AI PCSome initial thoughts on ‘Googlebook’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ccdde96f-ed59-4ceb-9cf4-6d02db58d159.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/gb2-334dca0b-6c97-4317-9fe8-198b2fd0fa4f.png)](https://spyglass.org/googlebook/) [Microsoft Seeks a Surface RT & Copilot+ PC Do-Over with NVIDIACan the main AI chip maker ensure Windows owns the ‘AI PC’?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-748ff24b-354e-4ebb-80b1-6175dd785836.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/HJf6tj2bgAAoGf7-e705bae8-be56-4951-9eb0-cf756a893b25.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) [They’re Building AI PCs, Will Users Come?Developers will, but at what cost? And can NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google push Apple aside there?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-57f64fd9-cb27-42b3-99c2-2038f2aad545.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2026--02_20_35-PM-36456d11-ae47-406f-8100-c3ff6fab4670.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) --- 1 Maybe, just maybe, it will spur Apple to [bring back](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1057272415225438208?ref=spyglass.org) the [glowing Apple logo](https://500ish.com/apple-cedes-735192326da4?ref=spyglass.org) on MacBooks?! Nah. [But a boy can dream](https://spyglass.org/apple-stickers-rip/)... [↩](#) ### Amazon Blocks Meta's Muse • Apple's iPhone Duo Pencil Pivot URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-amazon-blocks-metas-muse-apples-iphone-duo-pencil-pivot/ Last updated: 2026-09-21T18:41:48.000Z Well, it didn't take long for a full-on AI Agentic War to break out. No, not the kind that could potentially [end humanity](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/), but the kind that could end civility between the various players in Big Tech... Meanwhile, Apple's 'one more thing' iPhone Duo almost had *its own 'one more thing'* in the form of an Apple Pencil Mini. Just imagine if John Ternus has busted out there, "actually, there are *two* more things..." and pulled an Apple Stylus out of his pocket. He could have made a great joke about *not* [blowing it](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2015/01/20/if-you-see?ref=spyglass.org), [despite the stylus](https://techcrunch.com/2011/11/05/that-iphone-keyboard-is-still-coming/?ref=spyglass.org)... Read on, for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Why Didn't Google Build Muse? URL: https://spyglass.org/why-didnt-google-build-muse/ Last updated: 2026-09-21T14:11:45.000Z The number one response I've gotten to [my thoughts on Meta's Muse personal assistant agent](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) is some variation of "I will never trust Meta with my data." But the number two response is arguably more interesting (and related): "Why didn't Google build this?" The short answer to this is undoubtedly: they're working on it. But the longer answer is probably more interesting here too. Unlike Meta, Google runs the biggest email service in the world – an email service which contains the most valuable trove of personal information (not to mention communication capabilities) for a personal assistant AI. And what is probably the biggest calendaring system in the world. They also run the largest search engine in the world. Oh yes, and the largest smartphone platform in the world. Sure, Meta has Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, but Muse can't really work without access to any of these Google services. Depending on where you live, it could [probably](https://spyglass.org/whatsapp-ban/) work as a sort of WhatsApp personal assistant AI, but Muse would be a shell of what it currently is – again, thanks to the hooks into Gmail, Google Calendar, etc. So yes, Google obviously should have built this! And again, they're undoubtedly working on it – a big part of I/O this year was [talking up](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) 'Gemini Spark' Google's agentic agentic tool (not to be confused with 'Muse Spark', which is [the AI *model*](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) that powers Muse – which really is just an incredibly confusing branding twist), which has been in testing for several weeks now. And yes, it hooks into most of the various Google tools. The problem, as I see it, is three-fold. **First**, Gemini Spark is not fully released yet. Again, it's in testing, but whether or not you've had access depends on what tier of Google AI you subscribe to – at first it was for 'Ultra' members only, now it's rolling out to 'Pro' users too. (It's only in the US, but so is Muse.) Whereas Meta blew the doors off in launching and promoting Muse, Google has been, well, [timid](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) in doing so. Maybe it's related to the [shakeup of their AI group](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/). Or maybe it's because they were [waiting on](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/) Gemini 3.5 Pro, which was promised for June but still has not launched (and seems like it won't be now, as we move towards Gemini 4). Regardless, no one that has responded to my post seems to know Gemini Spark even exists, which is a problem. **Second**, related, is that Google *once again* clearly has competing products in the space. Say hello to '[CC](https://labs.google.com/cc/landing?ref=spyglass.org)', which is not Gemini Spark, but *another* agentic product that Google is working on. [Here's Sarah Perez for *TechCrunch*](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/18/googles-new-cc-is-an-ai-agent-that-helps-families-run-their-households/?ref=spyglass.org): > Google is testing a new product designed to help families coordinate with the support of an AI agent. This week, the search giant [introduced](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/google-labs/cc-expanding-to-groups/?ref=spyglass.org) a new version of [CC](https://labs.google.com/cc/landing?ref=spyglass.org), an AI agent designed to work across email, calendar, chats, and tasks. With the update, CC now focuses on keeping families organized, planning for the day ahead, and even handling family-specific tasks, like signing permission slips, creating shopping lists, or crafting weekly meal plans. At a high level, that all sounds fine, perhaps even good – focusing on family use-cases could be an interesting inroads for adoption (which is [the single biggest problem that all of these products face](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/)).[1](#one) But that should clearly be a *feature* of Gemini Spark, not an entirely different product! This is just going to confuse the already confused market. "Have you tried Google's personal assistant AI?" "Which one?" Which is the most Google problem of all time. Yes, personal AI assistants may very well be [the new messaging product pandemic](https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/21/22538240/google-chat-allo-hangouts-talk-messaging-mess-timeline?ref=spyglass.org) within the company. [Call it](https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-wood-behind-fewer-arrows.html?ref=spyglass.org) the 'less wood behind more arrows' strategy? As Perez notes, CC started life as a different agentic product itself called 'Daily Brief' – which actually also [still exists](https://gemini.google/overview/daily-brief/?ref=spyglass.org) as a sort of notification creator from what it finds on your calendar and inbox. Speaking of, Google has also been [testing an 'AI Inbox' for Gmail](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/) which sounds like it too will have overlap with a lot of what Daily Brief, CC, and Gemini Spark do! Oh yes, then there's [Google Assistant](https://assistant.google.com/?ref=spyglass.org) itself. The company is in the process of phasing out their old Alexa/Siri competitor in favor of Gemini, but it's branding everyone will remember and will further confuse matters. And wait a minute, shouldn't Gemini itself just do all of this?! Well yes, and again, it sort of does to varying degrees. In fact, Gemini Spark is currently shoved into the Gemini app as a separate tab – similar to what OpenAI has done with ChatGPT and Codex (after [their "super app" merger](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/)) and Anthropic has done with Claude and Claude Code (and also Cowork before they [finally merged](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-camera-less-glasses-apples-surveillance-claude-unifies-prime-bundles-dario-writes-bond-jack-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Anthropic%20Merges%20Claude%20Chat%20and%20Cowork) that secondary tab with Claude Chat itself). But wait, doesn't Google have an agentic *coding* product too? They do! Antigravity – itself a weird, totally tangential brand – is separate from all of this. And then there's 'AI Mode' in Google Search. This can increasingly do much of what the main Gemini service can do, and I would expect that to continue to grow over time. Which means we're likely just a few months away from some kind of personal assistant AI within Google Search. Especially if Muse continues to get traction! I mean, at least Google has [killed off 'Project Mariner'](https://www.theverge.com/tech/925559/google-project-mariner-shut-down?ref=spyglass.org), their agentic tool to browse the web and take actions on your behalf – a key feature of all personal AI agents. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-21-at-2.50.15---PM.png) **Third**, and by far the biggest problem for Gemini Spark is simply that Muse is better. I'm not even speaking about the underlying models and capabilities here, just the products. As a 'Pro' Google AI user, I got access to Spark a few weeks back and... I just don't really even know what to do with it. That's what Muse has nailed here: an interface that guides the user along, unveiling capabilities without bombarding them. Plus, Muse is just full of fun and whimsy from the avatar on down. Gemini Spark lacks that... what's the word I'm looking for here?.. I realize I just said above that CC should be a feature of Gemini, but it's worth wondering if Google shouldn't have a separate 'Spark' app, rebuilt around being a personal assistant (and ideally with a better name). Meta didn't shove Muse into their Meta AI app, but that also could have been because the Meta AI app itself was shoved into the old Meta 'View' app, for pairing the Meta Ray-Ban smartglasses. And it didn't seem like a ton of people were using their general chatbot competitor. So it was undoubtedly an easy call to make. Gemini is a different story, perhaps rivaling even ChatGPT in terms of active users now. Of course much of that is likely on the web and not their actual apps, but still. With Gemini established as Google's main AI brand, could they really do a separate Gemini Spark app/service? Presumably that's why this is a tab just as Claude Cowork was. But Meta may have just changed this game, at least for consumers. Again, in part thanks to that *lack of* AI consumer traction to date! Anyway, yes, it sure seems like Google needs an answer here, fast. It just looks sort of silly given all the tools they control mixed with their relatively strong level of user trust that Meta is eating their lunch here with Muse. I mean, even Apple – Apple! – [has a better solution](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) for a lot of use cases with the just-fully-launched Siri AI. Which, of course, is built on [the backbone](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) of Google's models! A year after it looked like Google had not only caught up in AI, but could run away with the game, we find a company that can't ship their latest flagship model, is far [behind](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Admits%20Being%20Behind%20in%20AI%20Coding) Anthropic and OpenAI in agentic coding, and has just been made to look foolish in the personal AI assistant space by Meta and Apple. What's next, Microsoft lapping them in AI-powered productivity? [Probably](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/)! **Disclosure: I worked at Google for a decade-plus as a partner at their venture fund, GV. I left a couple years back. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta’s Amusing MuseThey shipped a pretty killer AI assistant, can they keep people using it?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-586c96fc-9f5d-4f87-88d1-4b11425a6827.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_2734-1-50d1f23e-8464-47a6-b1d9-299c281d9bbd.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) [Google ‘I’ Hold the ‘O’Some thoughts on the Google I/O 2026 keynote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-26c16008-b856-49ea-9043-dedd94337f13.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-05-20-at-1.09.52---PM-37e42b71-0cbf-459f-98a4-7d2e3f6774fa.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) [Google Isn’t Lazy, It’s Timid. As It Sadly Must Be.Provocative soundbites aside, it’s obvious why Google isn’t OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9f3bcaf3-fb14-4a53-9ea8-15d67074402b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Lazy-Engineer-2770fd1b-7f07-4ce9-9339-18455433a2a0.webp)](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) [Google (Again) Clearly Needs to Unite Their AI ClansUm, where is Gemini 3.5 Pro?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ee0ef469-dd2a-45ee-bb80-95f2106712f9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/images-1-d536d4b6-c601-4410-b86b-ae5d18e5147b.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/) [Google’s Mind Is Now Less DeepHistoric talent is leaving DeepMind and Google, but that may ultimately \*help\* Google’s Gemini efforts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-548caa4a-7d90-43ee-963e-fcd715844d57.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--11_13_17-PM-f657317c-2c9c-40aa-b0a4-1a5633ff50b7.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/) --- 1 Though it doesn't work with accounts tied to users under 18?! [↩](#) ### The Apple Natural URL: https://spyglass.org/john-ternus-the-apple-natural/ Last updated: 2026-09-19T15:46:27.000Z With my own [Apple keynote](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/) and [iPhone Duo initial thoughts](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/) out of the way, I've been catching up on some of the other coverage from last week. One thing that stands out is just [how](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=543zTHAylEY&ref=spyglass.org) [much](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNKEu8x2xaw&ref=spyglass.org) Apple put John Ternus out there – with just one presentation and product unveil under his belt as CEO, no less – and in turn, how natural he seems talking about such things. This was [the vibe I got](https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/) from the keynote itself, but it's hard to tell for sure because that's a pre-recorded video. While you may not be able to inject charisma when it's not there – well, without some heavy AI usage perhaps – you can still cut and edit in ways that makes someone seem far more in command than they actually are. But in these more ad-hoc video sit downs (and red carpet events – [Bond, John Bond](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4snichuqz4&ref=spyglass.org)...), you clearly get a good sense of Ternus atop Apple. Yes, he's undoubtedly been media trained up the wazoo – not only ahead of taking on the main leadership role at Apple, but also over his 25 years at the company as he became more forward-facing – and sure, he has his corporate talking points to hit. But listening to him, even in these very early days as CEO, he feels... natural. No, he's not Steve Jobs. But he's also not trying to be. [Nor did Tim Cook try to be](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/), famously – but Cook's style always rubbed me as decidedly too buttoned-up. It was almost all corporate hat and very little cattle. He wasn't *bad*, but he was almost always [boring](https://spyglass.org/apple-q2-2025-earnings/). Again, decidedly not Steve Jobs. But also probably [exactly what Apple needed](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) in steering the ship after Jobs' untimely passing. Cook was [the stoic captain](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/), Ternus has a chance to be [something different](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/). Natural charisma aside, one of the things that made Steve Jobs, Steve Jobs, was how [in command](https://500ish.com/in-command-a511a9a83d98?ref=spyglass.org) he was of the facts – yes, even those sprinkled with reality distortion dust! – on stage. This was [best showcased in Q&As](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) where he'd be asked something, he would [take a moment](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/) to think about it (which few people do in such settings and just immediately start talking whether or not they have an answer), and almost always gave an insanely thoughtful response. Okay, sometimes it was a terse, more emotional reaction. But still, it always [felt sincere](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/). Like the guy knew what he was talking about. Again, like he was [in command](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/). Yes it's early, but I get some of those vibes in hearing Ternus talk. [The sit-down interview he did with *Tom's Guide* and *TechRadar*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJKt432tWM4&ref=spyglass.org) after the keynote I think best exemplifies this. It was a joint interview with Greg Joswiak, who has been in his leadership (and forward-facing) role longer than Ternus, which is undoubtedly at least in part to make sure Ternus stayed on the rails Apple prefers, with 'Joz' there to easily jump in if needed. As head of marketing, Joz has served this purpose a number of times in other joint interviews over the years ([including](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwmqgI8MYY4&t=10s&ref=spyglass.org) [with](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt1cLORIsOc&ref=spyglass.org) [Ternus](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkBudtxgor0&ref=spyglass.org)). But what's interesting is that Ternus didn't need that hand-holding or those training wheels, as it were. He was in command. Peppered with questions that would be hard for any executive – let alone a CEO – to answer in ways that weren't complete corporate-speak vague blandness, Ternus gave interesting, thoughtful answers. (The bit about the nano texture display seemed especially strong – "It was like, *yes* that's it.") It was clear how in the weeds he was of these products. Given his previous role overseeing all of hardware engineering, he basically had to be, of course. But that doesn't always translate into good answers. In fact, it rarely does. Again, it's either corporate speak that appeals to no one, marketing tongue that appeals to some, or technical jargon that appeals to very few. But Ternus somehow weaved them in a way that sounded natural. To be fair, Cook may have sounded similar if you asked him about the intricacies of Apple's supply chain. But no one ever really asked those questions because few care. And actually, Cook probably wouldn't have sounded similar because he would have known how guarded he needed to be talking about such things. Which is to say, Ternus has it easier, at least in this regard. Still, it's not an easy thing to do! At least watching these from afar, it seems that Ternus has a calmness in his style that naturally puts those around him at ease. In that regard, he's perhaps the opposite of Jobs! It's not better or worse, it's just different. And you can see why that would be appealing to the press, and presumably to Apple's rank and file as well. He just seems... likable? There's perhaps a question if such a style can also produce great leadership, but again, [Ternus has been at Apple 25 years](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/). He's been leading massive divisions, including, penultimately, perhaps the most important division. There's no way he gets elevated to the CEO role if he's not viewed as a great leader, obviously. [No need to be an asshole](https://500ish.com/the-great-asshole-fallacy-82e108a755c7?ref=spyglass.org). I'll say again that it's early. We'll see how Ternus evolves in the role – especially as the questions get tougher than talking about a newly launched product that everyone wants to talk about. Of course, that's part of the reason Cook is [still around](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) – as [his latest](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/) [White House dinner date](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/09/16/tim-cook-state-dinner-xi-jinping/?ref=spyglass.org) makes clear. But between [chatting about cycling](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0h4BrvhFtU&ref=spyglass.org) and [impromptu iPhone Duo reveals](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DJOU7ynkjcQ?ref=spyglass.org), there's something interesting about Ternus in this role. Could he be Apple's next [great showman](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/)? More importantly, might it point to his ability to be [the product leader](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) and [curator-in-chief](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) that has seemed [sorely lacking](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) at [points](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/) within Apple in recent years? We'll see! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [John Ternus’ Magic ShowApple’s new CEO must find a new trick and pull off ‘the prestige’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9528eee9-34b5-4da9-befb-b38f0afef550.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-28--2026--12_02_52-PM-c31fb62a-3011-43af-b529-42bb44b2531f.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) [When Steve Jobs Called the Design World to ArmsAnd basically talked about the 2024 state of computing in 1983![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-909dfbcc-c58e-4692-8e31-2a1cd7440d34.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-22-at-9.15.45-PM-a5d3ff8a-e599-4dd2-9199-7cb020b11bec.png)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) [Before MacBook Neo, There Was iBook27 years ago, Steve Jobs celebrated Apple completing “the quadrant”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-113b379b-23dc-4048-a5aa-2db6836b2dea.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-24-at-2.18.51---PM-1-5394df69-475a-4153-8566-a9e10840d2d7.png)](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/) [Hungry. Foolish.20 years ago, Steve Jobs reluctantly gave his most famous keynote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-a34140f3-f2f2-4349-bf16-b26f9860e5de.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/SteveJobs_StanfordUniv-embed-1-f4a65a90-e927-4fd0-920a-30b630f597b2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/) [A Cook’s TourTim Cook steps down as CEO of Apple as John Ternus steps up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d72099e2-097d-4074-8b13-319fe253e6e4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-21--2026--10_29_52-AM-8f93c65c-3543-4c19-a60a-2300aa99bf32.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) ### Inklings #026 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-camera-less-glasses-apples-surveillance-claude-unifies-prime-bundles-dario-writes-bond-jack-bond/ Last updated: 2026-09-18T20:12:32.000Z Happy iPhone Launch Day to those who celebrate. Though admittedly this year is more complicated to celebrate given that only the iPhone 18 Pro models are launching today. The iPhone Duo comes next month. And the iPhone 18 "regular" models should come in the Spring. So yeah, perhaps a bit more muted than usual. Still, there I was at the Apple Store today and the line seemed nearly as long as it had been in recent years. (Though the Apple Store employee who helped me did note they believed next month might see a bigger rush as everyone will simply want to *see* [the iPhone Duo](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/), even if they don't buy it.) Wait. Aren't I getting a Duo? Yes, that's the plan. But I picked up an 18 Pro today too sort of as a hedge. While everything I saw about the Duo looks great, I'm still unsure how much I'll care about not having the best camera/battery system possible with me at all times. And the form factor is something I simply can't judge until I use it. Also, who can resist Burgundy? Not John Ternus, [that's for sure](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/). ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **😎** [**Meta's Camera-Less Smartglasses**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-launch-camera-free-smart-glasses-amid-mounting-privacy-concerns?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While this reads like an almost instant reaction to the [growing backlash](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) against the "surveillance tech" [quickly coming](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/) into our lives, if Meta is truly going to announce these next week at their Connect conference, it seems reasonable to think they've been working on them for a while. And if that's the case, perhaps they were able to read the room a bit early. To be clear, [the "glasshole" problem](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) has existed for over a decade now, but Meta was able to fly largely under this radar with the Meta Ray-Bans for a while. But it was always inevitable [these issues](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/) would [come up again](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) as the devices grew in popularity. And it's something that Snap and [even Apple](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) are going to have to contend with now. I will say that [Muse makes](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) Meta's wearables decidedly more interesting to me – a halo effect?! Also, [the "Phoenix"](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Meta%20is%20apparently%20delaying%20the%20release%20of%20their%20own%20next%2Dgen%20glasses%20%28one%20of%20many%20headsets%20they%20have%20in%20the%20pipeline%2C%20including%20still%20some%20VR%20ones%2C%20despite%20the%20cuts%29%20codenamed%20%22Phoenix%22%20into%202027.%20%5BBI%5D) AR glasses (the artist [formerly known as "Orion"](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) or [something else](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/?ref=spyglass-newsletter) – see: below) sound ready to perhaps blow Snap further out of the water – holograms! screen mirroring! – which is undoubtedly part of the reason why they had [yet another](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/) pre-release event to announce/showcase the Specs them [for the third or fourth time](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-apples-nvidia-challenge-snaps-specs-shitshow/). **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-launch-camera-free-smart-glasses-amid-mounting-privacy-concerns?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **⌚️** [**Apple's Attempts to Redefine Surveillance**](https://www.wired.com/story/apple-doesnt-want-you-to-worry-about-the-new-apple-watchs-listening-features/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Speaking of... while I personally don't mind the notion of [the new 'Audio Intelligence'](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/) and 'Live Rewind' features of Apple Watch, and think they sound interesting, and generally trust Apple to have done the legwork to back up their security claims here, I can certainly see why others might not like the notion of me wearing my Apple Watch around them with this enabled! And so [the strangest thing](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/) to me about this is that *Apple didn't seem to realize what backlash this would garner*. Or just didn't care? And now it's [spiraling](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-11/apple-s-always-listening-watch-ai-tool-could-pose-legal-risks-for-users?ref=spyglass.org) into a privacy fiasco for them – and it's not even out yet! I'm reminded of Microsoft's 'Recall' feature for Windows. Which also [sounded cool/interesting](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-apple/), but was also [obviously](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-recalls-recall/) going to be [problematic](https://spyglass.org/total-recall-microsoft/), even if just optically, for them (though the [security vulnerabilities](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-recall-security/) certainly didn't help matters!). And so I wonder if Apple may have to backtrack here as well. I believe this feature is just as much about trying to 'prime the pump', as it were, for the forthcoming (and self-leaked) [AirPods with Visual Intelligence](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/), which will be similar in nature, but [more entirely built around](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/) such functionality. Instead, this might imperil those? I think all of this is inevitable eventually, but the timing may not be right yet... **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/apple-doesnt-want-you-to-worry-about-the-new-apple-watchs-listening-features/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🤖** [**Anthropic Merges Claude Chat and Cowork**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/16/anthropic-merges-claude-chat-and-cowork-in-one-interface/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I obviously get why these were two separate prompt boxes for different workflows, but you know, if AI is so smart, shouldn't it be smart enough to route such requests automatically? Well, now it is, it seems. Sort of humorous they're doing this just as OpenAI shoved ChatGPT and Codex into one "[super app](https://spyglass.org/super-app/)" (more like [super bloated](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/), amirite?) with two different areas – but that's [better than](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/) the five or six areas they launched it with, I guess. To be fair, Claude Code (not to be confused with Cowork, which it often seems to be) is still a separate area, which is more akin to the Codex situation (since OpenAI mostly, but not completely, killed off the strange 'Work' sub-brand). It seems fine to keep coding in a separate area, obviously, but in general, [we should have](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) *one box* per service! Another point for [Meta's Muse](https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/) here (as '[Muse Code](https://developer.meta.com/ai/lp/muse-code/?ref=spyglass.org)' just runs in the Terminal, at least for now – though yes, they also have the 'Meta AI' app, which they should probably just get rid of?). **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/16/anthropic-merges-claude-chat-and-cowork-in-one-interface/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📺** [**Prime Video's Big Niche Bundle**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/prime-video-streaming-bundle-amc-starz-mgm-pbs-britbox-1236702158/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** The great un-bundling of cable was always going to lead to a re-bundling of streaming. It's simply [too expensive](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) and too chaotic without [a more central hub](https://spyglass.org/streaming-bundle-wars/). While a bunch of individual bundles came [relatively quickly](https://spyglass.org/streamsaver/), now we're seeing bigger moves – like Peacock's [inclusion](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/) in YouTube Premium. But Amazon's move here points to bundles beyond a couple services with *five* of their 'Channels' offerings being offered as one $30/month package: AMC+, Starz, MGM+, PBS Masterpiece, and BritBox. Yes, they're all second-tier streaming services, but that is a nice savings (nearly 40% off versus each of them individually). And they're not as niche as what Roku is [trying to do](https://deadline.com/2026/09/roku-adds-30-new-streaming-bundles-1237105830/?ref=spyglass.org) with their *30-some* bundle options (all of which are still simply two services bundled together). [Everyone](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) is waiting to see [what Netflix does here](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/), Disney has their own [convoluted internal bundles](https://spyglass.org/disney-streaming-bundle/), and Apple may want [to follow suit too](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/). **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/prime-video-streaming-bundle-amc-starz-mgm-pbs-britbox-1236702158/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🥁** [**Spotify Lets Parents Exclude Kids Music from 'Wrapped'**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/15/spotify-finally-lets-parents-exclude-kids-music-from-wrapped-and-recommendations/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I can't imagine why this took [several years](https://500ish.com/kid-mode-3fffafb3b74?ref=spyglass.org) to implement – does no one working at Spotify have children?! – but my god, FINALLY. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/15/spotify-finally-lets-parents-exclude-kids-music-from-wrapped-and-recommendations/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **✍️** [**The Awesome and Alarming Writings of Dario Amodei**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/technology/dario-amodei-anthropic-essays-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** A fun dive into the Anthropic CEO's essays over the years. David Streitfeld's takeaway seems to be: maybe don't take what Amodei writes (and, by extension, *says*) *too* literally. Even if he means it, such [proclamations](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/) have a long history in the broader industry of being off, if not wrong. That's not to say they will be here, of course – and we should probably at least [consider that](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) for the [downside](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [scenarios](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/)! But as Streitfeld notes, Amodei's visions have also morphed over time in ways big and small – most notably perhaps when caught in [some political winds](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) as Anthropic has [grown](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/) in [importance](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/). Such [doublespeak](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/), in [turn](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/), has obviously [fueled](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) some of the [current backlash](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/technology/dario-amodei-anthropic-essays-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🤵‍♂️** [**Bond, Jack Bond?**](https://deadline.com/2026/09/gary-oldman-james-bond-backs-jack-lowden-1237070096/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** With *Slow Horses* officially back (which [I've long loved](https://spyglass.org/looking-up/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%B4%20Slow%20Horses%20Got%20the%20Chance%20to%20Get%20Comfortable) and [believe](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) is [the best show on Apple TV](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-hbo-emmys/)), I'm reminded that I never linked to the reports that Gary Oldman believes the next James Bond has already been cast. Which is of course interesting given that his co-star in said show – *a spy show,* [*I might add*](https://spyglass.org/ian-fleming-writing-routine/) – is the [current](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbond/next-bond-actor/kxbond-30?ref=spyglass.org) [odds-on favorite](https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/bond-26?ref=spyglass.org) to be cast as said character. He humorously notes that his "fingers are crossed" that it's [Jack Lowden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack%5FLowden?ref=spyglass.org). The fact that the man [writing the script](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) for this Bond [also seems to know](https://www.thetimes.com/culture/film/article/steven-knight-james-bond-new-actor-vsj63qb72?ref=spyglass.org) who is it with a first draft apparently done just adds more fuel (though I admittedly fall down [these](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) rabbit holes [often](https://spyglass.org/back-to-basics-bond/)). That said, with the news that *Slow Horses* has also been [renewed for seasons 7 and 8](https://variety.com/2026/tv/global/slow-horses-renewed-season-8-apple-tv-1236862689/?ref=spyglass.org) might create some scheduling conflicts? Then again, they pump these seasons out like no other show at the moment. In an era of *years* between big show seasons, it's a truly impressive cadence. **\[**[**Deadline**](https://deadline.com/2026/09/gary-oldman-james-bond-backs-jack-lowden-1237070096/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... 🔗 AI's "No Fate" Future • Spyglass 🔗 Apple TV Dethrones HBO • Spyglass ### I Quote... > "Mazdas do a fine job getting you where you need to go, and Maseratis are simply not worth the investment." – **Jerry Tang**, the CEO of Atlas Cloud, [speaking to](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/technology/open-source-ai-anthropic-openai.html?ref=spyglass.org) the notion of ["open" models](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) slowly taking over corporate America as they "offer a better bang for your buck." ### Thoughts On... 🔗 Apple's NVIDIA Challenge • Snap's Specs Shitshow • Spyglass 🔗 AI's Mixed Messages • Siri AI's Potential Developer Problem • Spyglass ### Asides... - Speaking of **Claude** and feature creep, its also getting its own **Docs and Slides** feature as it slowly morphs into a full-on productivity suite... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/996234/anthropic-one-claude-cowork-docs-slides?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - '**Agentforce**', maybe the [dumbest](https://spyglass.org/a-beige-take/#:~:text=Also%2C%20also,SF%20Standard%5D) [branding](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=After%20Apple%27s%20Siri%20debacle%2C%20the%20biggest%20AI%20vaporware%20peddler%20would%20seem%20to%20be%20Salesforce%20as%20they%20continue%20to%20push%20the%20nonsensical%20%22Agentforce%22%20branding%20%E2%80%93%20even%20after%20spending%20%2420M%20years%20ago%20to%20acquire%20the%20rights%20to%20use%20%22Einstein%22%20for%20AI%20purposes!%20My%20god%2C%20use%20that!%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) [attempt](https://spyglass.org/whopper-of-a-week/#:~:text=And%20I%20Quote,the%20phrase%20%22Agentforce%22.) in recent memory, may not be totally dead, but it's mostly dead and certainly no longer going to be what **Salesforce** *fully rebrands to* [anymore](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=If%20Salesforce%20really%20rebrands%20into%20%27Agentforce%27...%20I%20mean%2C%20my%20god.%20%5BBI%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)! **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/exclusive-salesforce-drop-agentforce-branding-products?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The company seems to have come to their senses with AI, as their new purpose-built model, **Koa**, built on top of NVIDIA's Nemotron open models and unleashing '**Claudeforce**' make sense! **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-profit-crown-nvidias-hugging-face-deal-hugging-faces-robot-metas-openclaw/)**\]** - A "[**hackquisition**](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" [that](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) actually comes under **legal** scrutiny? [Weird](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/09/business/nvidia-groq-antitrust.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Is **AI** killing the **app economy**? By at least one measure – YC startup trends – it sure seems like it. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-10/ai-is-killing-the-app-economy-and-building-its-successor?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - For all the [hand-wringing and FUD](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/) at the moment, it's nice to see **AI** bringing people together, you know like **Bernie Sanders** and **Steve Bannon**. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/us/steve-bannon-bernie-sanders-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Woz Hoodies! WOZ Chardonnay! **Woz Merch** is [here](https://wozmerch.com/?ref=spyglass.org) for all your **Steve Wozniak**\-as-a-Service needs. **\[**[**@stevewoz**](https://x.com/stevewoz/status/2100074363605397658?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... Not to be outdone by [Apple leaking their own AirPods with cameras](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) via an OS build, [it looks like](https://www.uploadvr.com/meta-project-phoenix-headset-first-clear-visuals/?ref=spyglass.org) Meta has done the same for their aforementioned 'Phoenix' glasses. These certainly look more Quest-y than [Snap's Specs](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/), but they also look make the current Quest (and Vision Pro, for that matter) look like a brick strapped to your face. And they even have old school nose-pinchers to be extra nerdy! (This will undoubtedly help with stability and weight distribution, but may hurt your nose?) [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-18-at-4.52.20---PM.png)](https://www.uploadvr.com/meta-project-phoenix-headset-first-clear-visuals/?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"Billy Came Back" by This Is Lorelei**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkvqdXBpQss&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Brewgood APA**](https://www.brewgooder.com/products/american-pale-ale?ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### Apple's NVIDIA Challenge • Snap's Specs Shitshow URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-apples-nvidia-challenge-snaps-specs-shitshow/ Last updated: 2026-09-17T12:30:55.000Z Might Apple make their own AI chips? It's easy to think of [a few reasons](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) why they would want to... Will Snap's SPECs fail to launch? [I mean](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/), come on... Read on, for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta's Amusing Muse URL: https://spyglass.org/metas-amusing-muse/ Last updated: 2026-09-17T08:09:05.000Z It happened. Meta finally has a product that I really like using again. Perhaps the first since [Paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook%5FPaper?ref=spyglass.org) way back in the day? Certainly since everything [they've done](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) to [try](https://spyglass.org/cut-the-bullshit-instagram/) to [ruin](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/) Instagram.[1](#one) Fine, I also quite like Threads, but more so because it's just a version of what Twitter could have, and probably *should have,* been years ago. And it just so happens to exist in a time when Twitter itself has been turned into some sort of [A/B test](https://spyglass.org/what-is-twitter/) for [surfacing](https://spyglass.org/a-time-to-kill-twitter/) the [worst](https://spyglass.org/never-tweet-your-heroes/) of [humanity](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/). Yes, Threads has social mogged Twitter. I'm already on a tangent. I was trying to pay Meta a compliment after [months](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-context-watermelon-hatch/) of [mockery](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/). And it's honestly a big one. Because I must say, Muse is pretty great. I speak, of course, of the personal agent *product*, not the actual models that power it.[2](#two) Those [seem pretty good too](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/), which certainly matters, but there are a number of great models out there in the world [at this point](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/). What truly matters, at least to me, is having a great product. And that has historically been very hard to do in the personal assistant space. Which is putting it nicely. Putting it less nicely would be noting that [the category is filled with carcasses](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/). But I feel like Meta has a legitimate shot at making such a product work with Muse. ### ClosedClaw This is where people will jump out of various corners of the internet to yell about [OpenClaw](https://openclaw.ai/?ref=spyglass.org) or [Instinct](https://instinct.com/?ref=spyglass.org) or the like. Those products are certainly interesting and impressive in ways. But at least so far, they lack the consumer chops to truly take off with the masses. [I wrote about this last March](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) when no one would shut up about OpenClaw in the aforementioned echo chamber that Twitter has become. Again, there are cool ideas there around plugging and playing with your own models on your own machines, but there is no way that regular users were going to, say, [buy a Mac mini](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/#:~:text=The%20Mac%20Mini%20Fully%20Morphs%20into%20an%20AI%20Machine) to set up such a server. That plus the notion that OpenClaw's founder [apparently rebuffed](https://sources.news/p/how-did-meta-lose-the-clawfather?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) an offer from Mark Zuckerberg to instead join OpenAI made the prediction that Meta would [go directly after](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190826703/claws-out-for-openclaw?ref=spyglass.org) the space an easy and obvious one [to make](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/#:~:text=Meta%20tried%20to,Maybe%20Manus%3F...). They may have even gotten there earlier had [the Manus acquisition](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) not been torpedoed by China. It's unclear what, if anything, Meta was able to keep from Manus, perhaps little more than three letters and some learnings for Muse. But whatever Meta has been cooking up over the past many months [under the guise of 'Hatch'](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%9E%20Meta%20Hatches%20an%20OpenClaw%20Competitor) clearly worked. Again, it's really good. I got that vibe [immediately](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2097461903198912742?ref=spyglass.org) after I signed up, but now after some time using it quite a bit, I'm quite sure of how good it is, certainly relative to the efforts by their peers. The key, again, is the product itself. You might assume that given the success of ChatGPT, this needed to be a fully chat and text-based interface, but actually Muse's UI is full of little tweaks here and there that make this decidedly more user-friendly. Most visible, of course, is the avatar. ### Avatars Others have tried this before, notably Microsoft – no, [I don't mean Clippy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-clippy-copilot-ai/), but their [weird cloud blob cute thing](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) for Copilot. With the company constantly [swapping copilots](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) for Copilot, that thing didn't last long. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a good idea, at least to try. Yes, others have had avatars mixed with AI for a long time including [Grok's sexy bots](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/168483112/grok-ai-companions?ref=spyglass.org) and Codex has their "pets" (which are now baked into [the unified ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/)), but I think the key is tying it to a persistent assistant, not just a chatbot or coding agent. Naturally, I've named mine [Moneypenny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss%5FMoneypenny?ref=spyglass.org). There's perhaps nothing more [controversial](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggingface?ref=spyglass.org) than anthropomorphizing AI at [the moment](https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/), but for this particular use case, giving an AI assistant tasks to complete and going back-and-forth around those tasks, it seems most natural to feel like you're talking to *something* if not someone. And leveraging the avatar in clever ways to let you know when it's thinking/working feels correct too. ### Ideas The other main obvious problem that many such services run into is twofold: the "blank page" problem mixed with the "boil the ocean" problem. That is, in our current Age of AI, these things can do almost anything – and certainly you can at least *ask* them anything. So what do you say? And what do you ask them to do? Again, Meta has not only some simple UI here, but an entire main area of the service called 'Ideas' that are decidedly just that: ideas for what you should ask your Muse to do. This sounds simple and it is simple, which is key. But it's also deceptively more complex because Meta is constantly updating this 'Ideas' tab based on what it knows about you – as best I can tell, based off of general ideas but also what you chat about with your assistant but *also* what services you connect to Muse. ### Connections The last bit is the real key to the service. One way to overcome the 'cold start' issues mentioned above is to have some layer of content and/or context already baked into the product. And Muse being a Meta product... well, they likely have a shit ton of such data. Facebook. Instagram. Threads. All a tap away thanks to your Meta login. But assuming you're using Muse on your iPhone, Meta also has a streamlined way to bring in a lot of data via Calendar, Contacts, Reminders, Health, and Home. And then the core Google services, Gmail, Google Calendar, Google Contacts, Google Docs, Google Drive, etc, are just an auth away. Outlook too, if you're into that kind of thing. And the list keeps growing with new connection options popping up. One thing you won't find: Messages – aka iMessage. Apple clearly doesn't want Meta (or anyone else) tapping into that, quite literally. But that's less of a big deal for Meta when you also happen to own both Messenger and WhatsApp. These are particularly useful integrations if you simply want to use the interface that you use for your other chats to communicate with Muse. ### Security But should you feel secure hooking up such things? There's basically two questions baked into that one question. First, should you feel secure hooking up an AI assistant into your personal data? Second, should you feel secure hooking up *a Meta AI assistant* into your personal data? I'll be honest that I was pretty hesitant on both fronts. I started slow, with only the Meta products connected. But [reading up](https://research.meta.ai/blog/security-and-safety-for-ai-agents-our-approach-with-muse?ref=spyglass.org) on how Meta architected Muse a bit, I started to feel more confident. In fact, I think it's fair to give them credit here for the way they're seemingly handling such security with information such as passwords sequestered away in a way that Meta never sees them, and all of your information sandboxed in your own computer instance in the cloud. Yes, it's their cloud. And yes, you are opted-in to help improve Muse with your usage. But you can opt-out of that, and given Meta's overall scale and expertise, I have more confidence in my data there than with, say, a new startup. Famous last words, I know. But at some point, you either trust the system they've built or you don't. And again, they've put a lot of legwork in here, clearly. Because they knew that if they didn't focus on such security, no one would use Muse, clearly. I do wish they would do [what they're doing](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-tokens/) with their Muse models where if you opt to help train their service, you get a *massive* discount on usage. That said, the usage rates right now for the free tier seem pretty generous. And I suspect [that will continue](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) because of another natural advantage Meta has here... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/IMG_2735-1.PNG) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/IMG_2736-1.PNG) ### Feed Yes, they have their other core businesses which bring in billions of dollars in profit each quarter. But as you're probably well aware, those billions are now going straight back out the door to [pay for the AI build-out](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). Which is to say, Meta can't just give a product like Muse fully away for free. Plus, they need to [diversify their business](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) model away from being completely dominated by social feed-based advertising. And so some level of paid upsell for AI power users makes sense, even if the overall premium offering is [pretty convoluted](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/) at this point. But there's one more element here which I suspect will truly be the key to making this all work for Meta. Aside from the main 'Chat' feed with your assistant and the aforementioned 'Ideas' feed, there's also an actual 'Feed'. That is, a feed of constantly updating information that you might find useful. For example, right now mine is showing a couple news items around the first benchmarks for Apple's M6 chip and the news that the Cleveland Browns (my hometown NFL team – sigh) have had to put a key player on injured reserve after just one game (a very Browns development – sigh). But beyond these topical items based on your interests, Muse also injects elements from your calendar and email (assuming you hooked them up) that seem timely. Here it notes that I have a package being delivered today which will require a signature. Nothing groundbreaking, but nonetheless useful! Why not just put these in the main chat? Because all of this would obviously clutter up that key interface. And it would naturally make you lose your place in any current ongoing conversation with your assistant. In a way, this is yet another solve for that "cold start" or "blank page" problem, as you can choose to riff off of any of these topics with your assistant; to get more info or to, say, set a reminder about that package to get pinged about later. Others, like Google, have tried to do this type of feed in their Google app (and when swiping left on Android devices), but Muse's feed is *so* much better in just a few days using it, in my experience. And it can easily be tailored with simple natural language prompts. ### Advertising But I've buried the lede. The real key to this feed *may be the fact that it's a feed*. Who manages and scales such feeds better than anyone? Meta. Yes, historically that's been around social algorithms, but now there's a new type of algorithm in this type of product. And given this type of product, it may be even *more* lucrative when it comes to Meta's true area of expertise: advertising. Injecting ads into the current paradigm with AI chatbots [runs a pretty high risk of backfiring](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/). While chats that replace some search queries will work for obvious reasons, not all chats have that same intent-based discovery mechanism. Nor is that area the traditional feed which has worked so well for Meta historically. But this new 'Feed' is certainly that, and again, arguably *better* given all of the information it can, yes, feed off of. This sounds gross, but I'm not sure it has to be. In particular if it keeps your main chat ad-free. And I suspect such items surfaced in this other feed could actually be useful quite often. It could be an actual win/win. And it's so obvious that everyone else is likely to copy such a model. ### Goals Another main area of Muse is 'Goals', ongoing tasks and high-level agenda items that your assistant is working on and/or keeping track of for you. Currently, I have an ongoing fare watch for a flight I'm looking into, a ticket sale watch for *Dune 3*, a monitor for tax documents coming into my inbox, an ongoing calorie tracker, and more. I suspect this list is going to get quite long and that actually makes me feel quite good, because it's all stuff that, while perhaps not fully off my plate, can be off my mind until such a time that I need to deal with them. Okay, can't a reminder app just do this for you? Some of it, sure. But the key again is the product here. The way you interact with it and the ability to take the open-ended nature of the AI chat paradigm and squeeze it into something that will make sense for regular users. There's no need for special incantations or Terminal code here. You can just type – or talk – to your bot.[3](#three) ### Mainstream To that end, I suspect Meta's real rival here isn't OpenClaw but Apple. To be clear, Muse seems about 1,000x more powerful than pretty much anything even the newly upgraded Siri AI can do at the moment. But I'm not sure how much that matters for everyday users. Certainly not more than Siri simply [being there by default](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/), connected to all of your data on your iPhone. If you just need a way to better interface with your phone to naturally dig through email and messages and surface information, clearly Apple is going to have an advantage with Siri baked into every device. But as workflows move more agentic – i.e. you want to use AI to take more actual actions – the advantage quickly shifts towards Meta. Though that assumes the data access is equal, which it won't be. But it also assumes Apple doesn't continue to improve Siri AI with more capabilities, which they will – but undoubtedly [far more slowly](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/) than Meta does. Then it becomes a question of who does a better job stitching all of this work together in a cohesive product experience? Both have historically been good at this from a consumer-perspective, but in very different ways! And you can already see how the strengths and weaknesses of each will impact such a battle. Can Meta [convince people](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) to use their devices [more than the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) for such use cases? Can Apple keep Siri relevant and useful in such a fast-moving field of technology? ### Other Competition OpenAI remains a bit of a wildcard here because they've [historically done well](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) on the consumer side of AI, from ChatGPT on down. They make [compelling](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) products that people [naturally](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) gravitate [towards](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/), even if they have to [shut them down](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/). But clearly their focus is now on the business and the coding use case in particular as they race against Anthropic. Does that shift again in the near future? Can OpenAI [find their way back](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) to consumer? Might [their own devices](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) lead that charge? And will they have an offering that truly competes with Muse? Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceXAI are all going after this space too to varying degrees. Muse has perhaps shown them the correct path here; can they take a page out of Meta's [own playbook](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) and fast-follow? And the startups are coming too led by the aforementioned Instinct. Will being nimble, not weighed down by the big company baggage help? Perhaps being model agnostic is a key play as it is starting to be on the enterprise front? ([I continue to believe](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) these plays will get scooped up, fast, especially if the other big players now feel like they must answer the Muse call. But that's becoming [an expensive proposition](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ai-agent-startup-instinct-talks-10-billion-valuation?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), fast – and round and round we go...) ### The Path Forward This can still go any number of ways and the key for Meta will be user retention (as getting people to sign up clearly won't be an issue given all their surfaces). Can they make Muse truly sticky? Not just a daily habit, but an *hourly* one? I'm seeing signs of how this could work, but it's easier said than done as the key unlock may be slightly different for everyone given just how much you can do with such a tool. And that (good problem to have) will grow as the capabilities of Muse continue to grow. It's honestly impressive that Meta is doing all of this with the Muse Spark model, what will 'Watermelon' – their coming soon flagship model – bring?! Frankly, I still need more time to trust Meta with, say, signing into my bank account! Even if just to pull statements. And that's baby steps before actually trusting Moneypenny to buy anything on my behalf! Again, it feels like and sounds like Meta has taken all the right steps here (and the [Stripe](https://stripe.com/gb/newsroom/news/stripe-helps-meta-muse-shop-with-link?ref=spyglass.org) and [Plaid](https://plaid.com/blog/meta-muse/?ref=spyglass.org) integrations seems strong here too), but it's still Meta! If there's [a more damaged tech brand](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/) when it comes to user trust and goodwill, I don't know what that is. Maybe [Theranos](https://spyglass.org/you-can-see-everything-teaser/)? And with that we're back, dunking on Meta again. Just like old times. But seriously, I'm impressed by Muse. To the point that I'm actually using it. A lot. I'm going to ask Moneypenny to proofread this now. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-16-at-4.33.01---PM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [You Cannot Unsee ‘You Can See Everything’What did I just watch?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c6c30f65-b809-4ea0-9b58-83d34b9a9b93.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-07-at-10.54.59---PM-1-a4efcb10-303f-4089-8e2e-19f18da03797.png)](https://spyglass.org/you-can-see-everything-teaser/) [Who is Holding the App Store Line?And is that line about to shift – in a good or bad way?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-93ed4bfd-9c5b-42d5-b249-12ec24a95804.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-7--2026--05_30_40-PM-2-0398f9a4-2043-4f43-a112-a47b5837c006.png)](https://spyglass.org/app-store-policy-shifts/) [Can Someone Finally Architect Personal Assistant AI?The always promised product that always fails to deliver…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9ace61af-0894-4b07-9e45-46c0989997da.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-1--2026--08_40_25-PM-46ede3c5-8a6a-44bc-9d2d-a9463c309816.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) --- 1 I realize that I'm [no longer](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) the target user nor demographic for Instagram. Which is fine. I just wish that was a different product, not something crammed into the carcass of the old product that I loved so dearly. But I also know that ship has long since sailed... [↩](#) 2 Yes, this is confusing branding-wise, which is pretty [par for the AI course](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). Muse, the product, is powered by Muse Spark, the model. There's also Muse Glimmer (which is ["open"](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai-muse-glimmer/)) and Muse Image. Presumably the forthcoming "Watermelon" will also get a Muse name. [↩](#) 3 It would be nice to have [a proper voice mode](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) here – as in [a back-and-forth with voice](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/). When I asked Moneypenny to speak back to me, "she" recorded a voice response for me, which was sort of fun, but a bit cumbersome. I'd bet that's coming soon given that this is all undoubtedly coming to Meta's smartglasses. [↩](#) ### Apple TV Dethrones HBO URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-hbo-emmys/ Last updated: 2026-09-16T12:41:47.000Z 🔗 With Emmys Haul, Apple Joins the Big Leagues of TV • NYT A well-deserved victory lap for Apple today after winning big at the Emmys. Award shows remain [mostly silly](https://spyglass.org/oscars-2024/) and [subjective](https://500ish.com/best-2452540ed026?ref=spyglass.org), but they're an [interesting directional proxy](https://spyglass.org/warner-bros-wins-one-battle-oscars/) for power in the various industries and, well, Apple just beat not only Netflix, but HBO too. > The victory also cemented Apple’s now-critical place in the entertainment industry. > > Fueled by “Widow’s Bay,” which [set a record for most Emmy wins](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/arts/television/widows-bay-emmy-best-comedy.html?ref=spyglass.org) for a comedy series, with 14, as well as sci-fi series “Pluribus” and “Slow Horses,” Apple broke a long-running streak on Monday night. Since 2003, HBO and Netflix have been the two outlets to claim bragging rights on Emmys night. Apple’s 28 awards this year easily outpaced both. Technically, FX won the most Emmys one of those years (2024), but yeah, it has been a run of dominance by Netflix and HBO.[1](#one) The latter is especially interesting since there's been an 'Apple TV is the new HBO' [meme](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) for a while now.[2](#two) I'm not sure I can take credit for calling it, but I did [bring up](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2020/10/28/stewart-apple-tv-plus?ref=spyglass.org) the notion *six years ago* on [an episode](https://daringfireball.net/thetalkshow/2020/10/09/ep-298?ref=spyglass.org) of John Gruber's *The Talk Show* podcast. It just seemed pretty clear what they were going for – while HBO, at the time, [looked to be](https://500ish.com/at-t-monkeys-with-hbos-swing-403b3812bf52?ref=spyglass.org) heading [down the toilet](https://500ish.com/dont-mess-with-a-good-thing-7b4476498476?ref=spyglass.org) thanks to [their takeover by AT&T](https://500ish.com/its-not-hbo-it-s-tv-apparently-851c2afd469e?ref=spyglass.org). > Apple’s entry into Hollywood less than a decade ago — the company started [buying projects](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/business/media/apple-reese-witherspoon-jennifer-aniston-show.html?ref=spyglass.org) in 2017, and debuted its streaming service [in 2019](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/media/apple-tv-plus.html?ref=spyglass.org) — was greeted with skepticism. Other technology companies, including Microsoft, Facebook and Yahoo, had also started making scripted TV series before quickly fleeing town. Becoming an entertainment studio is as expensive as finding hits is a slow, unpredictable and frustrating process. > > While Apple TV remains little watched compared with its competitors, the company has stuck with it. > > “When we started this seven years ago, it’s hard to imagine that we’d be here today,” said Eddy Cue, a top Apple executive who started the entertainment division and hired the company’s lead Hollywood executives, Zack Van Amburg and Jamie Erlicht. Again, it was not *that* hard to imagine. Apple had a long history of going for the higher end of the market. And for going for quality while others went for quantity. But the latter actually bit them a bit when it came to sign-ups and ratings. Unlike the other streaming services, they opted not to buy up [big back catalogs](https://500ish.com/hbos-corpus-of-content-and-apple-s-lack-thereof-12fd1d6e858e?ref=spyglass.org). I'm not sure they fully understood that it wasn't really about juicing their numbers, but about churn prevention. People would finish their shows and have nothing else to watch on Apple TV. [That was obviously a problem](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/). It's less of a problem seven years in, but it's still kind of a problem! Which is why I made the case that they should buy – who else – [HBO a couple years ago](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/), before Netflix [tried](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) and Paramount [eventually did](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) (which I *also* [recommended](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) a week before [trying to spend Tim Cook's money](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/)). Well, technically they still haven't yet! So maybe there's hope yet.[3](#three) Apple clearly could still use such content: > The company’s streaming service, which, unlike Netflix and Disney, doesn’t have a library of old movies and TV series, is still not widely watched, however. In July, it made up 0.5 percent of all TV viewing time, a fraction of its competitors’, according to Nielsen. Netflix attracted nearly 8 percent of all viewing time in the United States, Disney’s streaming services came in at close to 5 percent, and free streaming services like Roku and Tubi also had more viewership. > > Though Apple’s top hits, like “Ted Lasso” and “Severance,” draw big audiences, the shows that won big at the Emmys struggled to find viewers. “Widow’s Bay” was the least watched of all the best comedy nominees, Nielsen said. In the drama category, Apple’s three entrants — “Pluribus,” “Your Friends & Neighbors,” and “Slow Horses” — ranked among the least-watched drama series nominees, and were dwarfed by one of the biggest hits in television, “The Pitt” on HBO Max. Again, if the Emmy wins are any kind of proxy, Apple is now likely in a pretty good place, as long as they don't mind slow-and-steady growth. Which they clearly don't! Certainly, their strategy seems better [than it was several years back](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/), and it has [always been](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/) far better in television than film, where the [quality](https://spyglass.org/the-gorge-apple-tv/) remains overall pretty [questionable](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/). But is Apple TV in the old HBO place? I made the quip [earlier](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2099772573496004802?ref=spyglass.org) on this news and Mario Sundar [pushed back](https://x.com/mariosundar/status/2099959287808471386?ref=spyglass.org) on the notion that Apple TV content can hold a candle to peak HBO content. I actually [agree](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2099961709234380893?ref=spyglass.org) with that. While the average overall quality of Apple's shows are higher than those on [Netflix](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) or Prime Video, they still don't have the type of 'A+' content that HBO was regularly pumping out at their peak. *The Wire*. *Sopranos*. *Deadwood*. *Succession*. Etc. All of those make even the best of Apple TV look like child's play. Apple TV, in my mind, has a lot of 'B' and 'B+' shows. I personally think *Slow Horses* is the best show on the service and I'd give it an 'A-'. Some people live for *Severance*, I'm not one of them. *Pluribus* [has been](https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/) [pretty good](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/), but far from great to date. Ditto with *Widow's Bay*. A few great episodes, but not nearly as uniform as the HBO hits of old. Further, HBO, despite the current ownership turnover, does seem to have [found its footing again](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) post-AT&T. Sure *House of the Dragon* [isn't quite](https://spyglass.org/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-finale-hbo/) *Game of Thrones*, but it's also [far better](https://spyglass.org/the-bear-ending/) than [the last season](https://spyglass.org/remake-game-of-thrones-please/) of *Game of Thrones*. *A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms* may end up better than both. I've not gotten into *The Pitt*, but clearly many people have! *Task* was fantask-tic. We'll see how they wrap *The Last of Us*. *The White Lotus* is more up and down, but its highs are higher than anything on Apple TV as of yet. Anyway, Apple TV is still young and growing into that catalog. And it's [no surprise](https://500ish.com/ted-lasso-will-be-back-6957631078d4?ref=spyglass.org) that they brought *Ted Lasso* back, which was the one show that [seemed to cross-over](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-minus/) into an actual hit in those early days. Apple has their awards now. But as Netflix can attest, it's tough to keep them – they just had their "worst" showing at the Emmys in a decade. [Maybe](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) *they* should try to buy HBO – again! **One more thing:** nice aside about Eddy Cue toasting the Apple TV team with tequila shots. Also taking one: new CEO John Ternus, who was [at the awards show](https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/14/new-apple-ceo-john-ternus-attending-emmy-awards-and-sporting-iphone-duo/?ref=spyglass.org) rocking his [fresh](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/), [new](https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/), and [still unreleased](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/) iPhone Duo. A natural. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-15--2026--11_25_49-PM-2.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [It Wasn’t the Apple TV+ Spend, It Was the Apple TV+ StrategyAnd the hope is that they’ve now corrected it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d3a75d66-28e4-40c3-b843-4d9ec3e84e94.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/01252024_Movie-Argylle_1_170620-1d671e19-41df-48fd-a2ec-0055a0d384cf.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) [HBO Became HBO Before HBO Could Become NetflixWell, technically ‘Max’, but you get the quip…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-700acb24-5e2f-4483-a9bb-5f78da8dc5b1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0x0-1-a9d7d049-1540-4670-9f05-2beeaf4db4c2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) [Apple Should Buy HBOAnd basically all of Warner Bros Discovery, which is selling…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-45e7e4dc-5dc9-423b-86db-7d81f1fc968a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Google-Glasses-Merge-33894b52-127c-4a17-ae7e-8c8dcfecfb0d.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) [Apple TV+ Became HBO Before HBO Could Become NetflixApple TV+ Is the New HBOMax just isn’t what it used to be. Apple TV+ is where you need to go for must-watch prestige television.WIREDCondé Nast I’ve been saying this for years. I mean, I really have been saying this for years. While most everyone was![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-91e88ce7-efd2-4ce1-8011-5906ee9bc5fa.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Slow-Horses-Photo-Custom-1-845fb166-d888-4cfd-90b5-d8f8e27fd94d.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) [The Case for Apple + DisneyAlso the case against what is still a fun, but unlikely deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-eaad8eab-96c7-403c-a783-18aa0a67c5f4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-7--2026--02_38_45-PM-e7a5b213-fa3f-4ab0-aef5-bab82e304081.png)](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/) --- 1 [Yes, yes,](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) Netflix had been trying to become HBO faster than HBO could become Netflix... [↩](#) 2 Technically it was 'Apple TV+' is the new HBO before that plus [went out the window](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/)... [↩](#) 3 Or, you know, [Disney is sitting right there](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/)... [↩](#) ### AI's "No Fate" Future URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-end-of-humanity/ Last updated: 2026-09-15T20:26:06.000Z It was the best of times, it was the end of times... We can't even make it a few hours now, let alone an entire day without [someone](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/google-deepmind-staffer-says-ai-may-kill-us-all-in-exit-post?ref=spyglass.org) at one of the leading AI labs saying that what [they're building](https://x.com/dkokotajlo/status/2099600298855829616?ref=spyglass.org) is going to kill us all. Not just be bad for the environment in some way. Not just be bad for society in some way. But *kill* us. It's to the point where this is no longer just on fringe forums or in dinner discussions in the Bay Area. This fear is going mainstream. My family is constantly pinging me about it. It has [hopped](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2099449661274698080?ref=spyglass.org) across the pond. The President of the United States is resorting to [staged call-ins at tech conferences](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/technology/trump-ai-safety-jensen-huang.html?unlocked%5Farticle%5Fcode=1.BFE.6RVR.cSzQJON-bJf4&smid=url-share&ref=spyglass.org) to try to dispel such notions and calm such fears. That ends up doing the opposite, of course. The good news for the AI companies is that this is making the data center [debates](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) look completely [trivial](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/). The bad news is, well, [everything else](https://www.techmeme.com/260915/p6?ref=spyglass.org#a260915p6). So what's up? Are we toast? I mean, maybe! But also maybe not. As an outside observer in all of this who simply conjures the dark arts of triangulation and adheres to the principle of [Occam's razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s%5Frazor?ref=spyglass.org) whenever possible – in other words, someone who tries to be rational, *but decidedly* *not a* [*Rationalist*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalist%5Fcommunity?ref=spyglass.org) – my simple, obvious read is that no one actually knows. That doesn't sound comforting, but also it perhaps *should* if all of these reports are freaking you the fuck out. I'm not telling you not to trust all these literal doomsday accounts from these people within the labs because they are largely from more junior, less tenured people, but I am telling you to look at their own biases. Just quick, cursory scans often reveal the clear and obvious ties to said Rationalist movement. While [Effective Altruists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective%5Faltruism?ref=spyglass.org) often get thrown under the AI doomer bus, as [Cal Newport succinctly outlined in an essay last week](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/05/opinion/ai-silicon-valley.html?ref=spyglass.org), it's actually Rationalists (by way of [Extropians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropianism?ref=spyglass.org)) that planted these end-of-times seeds a couple decades ago. Unsurprisingly, a lot of people now working in the AI field are adherents. They self-selected to do this work, undoubtedly believing they could help protect the world from this demise. But as we [creep closer to AGI](https://spyglass.org/agi-2026/) – but really, [RSI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org) seems to be the [particularly](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,I%20Quote...,-%22The%20faster%20the) [problematic](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-back-to-the-frontier-ai-races-netflix-out-youtubes-youtube/#:~:text=for%20thoughts%20on...-,Back%20to%20the%20Frontier%20AI%20Races,-OpenAI%20Technique%20in) acronym now (fears of which also [date back long ago](https://x.com/davidchalmers42/status/2099528302398447742?ref=spyglass.org), well before the Rationalists) – a lot of these people clearly believe the end, which again, they've long believed in, is near. Again, [I'm not saying they're wrong](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/). I'm saying that I don't believe they actually know. And I'm saying to just keep in mind their biases in making such proclamations. And I also might point out that as this rhetoric ramps, there are undoubtedly people who are trying to take advantage of the literal FUD – on both sides. Anyway, one level up from these literal doomsayers, we have executives at the various AI companies not quite echoing these sentiments, but also not completely shooting them down. [This is the real problem](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/#:~:text=Please%20Get%20Excited%20for%20the%20End%20of%20the%20World) in all of this because it does seem to lend credence and gravitas to the arguments. You might [expect this](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) from Dario Amodei given [his background](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) and [known beliefs](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/), but Sam Altman – his mortal enemy – also now [calling for a slow-down](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) certainly raises eyebrows, if not fears. Is that simply because a slowdown would also be in the interest of the leading AI labs such as OpenAI? I mean, you'd hope that take is too cynical, but it can't be completely discounted either. I still mainly chalk it up to no one knowing what is going to happen as we approach RSI. If we sort of [accidentally trip into it](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/), it very well could be bad! It could also be fine. But again, is that worth the risk? So when even more respected leaders in the field, like Demis Hassabis, are also pushing for a pause, I believe it's an acknowledgement that no one knows where exactly this is heading. I mean, how could anyone? Even [Amodei basically admits this rationale in his most recent essay](https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier?ref=spyglass.org) calling for the 'pacing'. Others, like Yann LeCun, think [all of this is "bullshit"](https://x.com/ylecun/status/2043673634363851250?ref=spyglass.org). But he has his own biases too! In this case, [against LLMs](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/). He has long believed, like many others, that while [LLMs are useful](https://x.com/ylecun/status/2099806809431081258?ref=spyglass.org), they're ultimately [too rudimentary to get us to AGI](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/). And if that's the case, you certainly wouldn't believe that their ability to mimic human speech will bring about the end of the world. But again, as illustrious as [his background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yann%5FLeCun?ref=spyglass.org) may be as one of the "Godfathers of AI", the reality is also that he too doesn't know for sure. Nobody knows for sure. We're in uncharted waters here, and I think even the LLM skeptics would have to say that the technology has taken us far past what many originally thought possible. But, but, but Bill Gates! Yes, [is there anything about his background](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/#:~:text=Bill%20Gates%2C%20AI%20Doomer) that makes him particularly suited to predict this future? I'm sorry, but no. He too might be right, but it's not because of some secret knowledge he has in this field. So yes, I'm saying there's a chance. But also a chance that there's no chance. Which isn't particularly helpful, except perhaps in calming nerves somewhat from the folks constantly saying this is the end of times. There is nearly an infinite range of outcomes here between being fine and being dead. Also, many of them – probably half! – have outcomes which end up being good, if not *great*, for society. And that's how many of these folks obviously rationalize – I hate to keep using variations of such a loaded word here, but it's also fitting – continuing work in this field. If the end of humanity is even just possible, wouldn't you quit immediately?[1](#one) Yes, unless perhaps you thought that you could save the world with your work. So that's the obvious tension here. That, alongside the other elephant in the room: China. This fear that if we even just pause, let alone stop work on AI, China will zoom ahead. Obviously this is what fuels President Trump's rhetoric and annoyance here. And that too seems rational! If China lacks the Rationalists undercurrent in the field, they're likely to keep pushing forward unless they determine [their own risks](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/world/asia/china-ai-security-risks-anthropic.html?ref=spyglass.org). There's [some inkling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/how-china-is-preparing-risk-ai-escaping-human-control-2026-09-14/?ref=spyglass.org) of that happening, but it also [seems less about](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/china/china-ai-slowdown-trump-amodei-altman-threat-cold-war-rcna597631?ref=spyglass.org) the end of the world and more one level of rhetoric down, on the [catastrophic](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) security front. So where do we go from here? I don't know because again, nobody knows. Certainly that alone could and perhaps should put me in the cautious camp, pointing to a "pacing" of the technology. But I'm also trying to think realistically here. Not just on the China fears, but also around the fact that many of these companies are [racing towards IPOs](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/). The two things don't have to be mutually exclusive, but they're also [inherently tied together](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-openais-potential-comeback-hollywoods-movie-tickets-sold-disaster/#:~:text=Is%20OpenAI%20Set%20for%20a%20Comeback%3F) in ways. What I'm saying is that the incentives here are all, yes, *misaligned*. At the very least what we have right now is [a full-blown communication crisis](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/#:~:text=Please%20Get%20Excited%20for%20the%20End%20of%20the%20World). There's a line between whistle-blowing and yelling "fire!" in a movie theater, and I think we're now testing it. I, of course, think you should be able to voice your opinion that you think AI is going to destroy the world. But I'm not sure you should be employed at a frontier AI lab if you feel the need to project such opinions outward in ways that are not constructive and, in fact, may end up *destructive*. I'm sure these people think it's adding fuel to the pacing case – if not an outright *ban* on AI – but it could ultimately backfire. The reality remains that until [Kyle Reese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyle%5FReese?ref=spyglass.org) – or the [T-800](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminator%5F%28character%29?ref=spyglass.org) – comes back in time, no one knows the future. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AI’s Mixed Messages • Siri AI’s Potential Developer ProblemDo you feel like every other headline and talking point coming out of the companies at the AI frontier contradict each other? You’re not alone there. The future is so bright... because of the nuclear blast that the rogue AI agents will trigger. By accident or on purpose. But![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9716c2d4-cacd-40fe-8b46-569cebd120cb.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-8--2026--01_50_34-PM-1-345f1d1d-8469-48d0-b4dd-742d9d4fa5b0.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/) [Bill Gates, Doomer • The Mac Mini MorphsUh, Bill Gates sounds a lot like... Dario Amodei in writing up his thoughts on where he thinks the world is headed with regard to AI. It’s a good essay, worth the read, but it’s certainly not going to help the AI perception problems! (And it’s also![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-aaf07995-5a63-43b5-b287-79ecadc12667.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-26--2026--03_56_25-PM-1-e6aade88-1169-4805-b658-29ccfe45d01c.png)](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/) [What if Anthropic is Right?What if we’re dangerously close to tripping into oblivion?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-f113f83c-a702-4f9e-be60-d1b4fd2647a5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-3--2026--09_26_21-PM-52d7698f-a394-4340-88d1-dea56f31765e.png)](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-89a079a9-2635-448f-aace-a04a39d03aef.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3-ef42adc4-f8ae-4a93-b3ca-1eebed10eb30.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [Pushing or Pacing or Pulling Back From the AI Frontier?Is this a breather in AI development, or something more?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-5ca23cb0-13c0-46d7-a5ea-e6fd98a9fa62.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-19--2026--04_40_32-PM-a4faab04-255f-4afe-a4cc-f0cbdb143f98.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) --- 1 Which it *seems* like Bilal Chughtai [did](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7505380570303062016/?ref=spyglass.org) in this most recent instance. But, well, you can read his background and beliefs [in his own words](https://bilalchughtai.co.uk/?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) ### Apple Unveils the CEO Handoff URL: https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/ Last updated: 2026-09-12T00:15:26.000Z The tenure of John Ternus has started [with a bang](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/). Not a full-on explosion, but a nice loud pop. Certainly not a whimper — as you could definitely categorize [some recent Apple events](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-event-too-long/). It seems like Tim Cook set up his successor well, teeing him up — including quite literally in the event's intro video — to unveil the iPhone Duo [in his first keynote address](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/). Love it or lust after it, it’s [undoubtedly](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2097748955710763234?ref=spyglass.org) the most interesting new iPhone in years. Probably since the initial device nearly 20 years ago. This is the first one to truly alter the form factor. Yes, it comes at a cost. $1,999 to be exact — if you’re okay with just 256GB of storage, which you probably won’t be if you’re already committed to buying this device. So yeah, we’re well into the $2,000+ range now. Remember when [Steve Ballmer laughed at the $500 starting price](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h%5FY5%5FU&ref=spyglass.org) 19 years ago? Yeah, times change. Overall, this year’s iPhone event seemed strong. Ternus brings a new energy that, try as he might, I don’t think Cook was ever quite able to achieve. His keynotes always felt a bit too forced. A bit too rehearsed. Ternus seems far more natural on that stage. The marketing speak may be the same, but you get the sense that he knows these products backwards and forwards – because he simply *must* given his previous role literally helping to engineer them. Somehow, that knowledge translates into the presentation. To the point where I’d love to see him on the actual and literal stage again, not just in pre-recorded videos. As solid as the iPhone Duo unveiling was, can you imagine if Ternus was up there, in-person, pulling one out of his pocket and flipping it open? You can almost see him doing it once and then saying something like: “Did you catch it? Let’s do it again with a camera zoomed in on the screen.” He flips it open again, this time showing off the truly magical software transition. This allows him to tangibly convey that this is Apple at its finest: hardware + software. Yes, there have been foldables before. Some are even [pretty good](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/). But none can do what Apple does on the software front, reimagining how such a device should be *used*. It’s not just a phone that flips open into a larger screen. It’s a new experience, most akin to a smartphone [meeting a tablet](https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/). And the only company that has truly nailed the tablet, even after *years* of trying? Apple. The iPhone Duo is not just “two phones awkwardly stuck together”, it’s something new. Look, Apple’s pre-recorded video largely captured all of this. But again, the energy would have been so much better to do it live, as it were. No, sadly, Steve Jobs is not walking back out onto that stage, but Ternus seems to have the right vibe to pull off the in-person keynote. Cook had his own strengths — [many of them, obviously](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) — but these presentations were not one of them. Apple has an opportunity here to run it back, as it were, and reclaim the best tech keynote [mantle](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/). Speaking of Jobs, Ternus didn’t shy away from invoking him, even if just indirectly. The opening bit setting up the iPhone as the best device for AI — [you don’t say?](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) — was clearly meant to hark back to Jobs original [famous](https://spyglass.org/the-spyglass-plan/) iPhone unveil — [“...these are *not* three separate devices…”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=bfxQ2pkpU6PqxOC5&t=76&ref=spyglass.org&v=MnrJzXM7a6o&feature=youtu.be) The notion of the "Intelligent Personal Hub" is straight out of the Jobs ["Digital Hub"](https://apple.fandom.com/wiki/Digital%5FHub?ref=spyglass.org) playbook from way back when. And yes, Ternus even busted out the “one more thing” at the end to unveil the Duo. These call-backs could have elicited groans, or made him seem like too much of a try-hard, but he pulled them off with ease! Apple seems to be in good hands with Ternus. After reaffirming his commitment to Apple’s values and ways, he dove head-first into the company’s biggest pain point in recent years (well, perhaps beyond [the recent component costs](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/)): AI. Again, he honed in on the messaging to quickly flip the perceived weakness into a strength. AI runs on devices. Who makes the best devices? [That’s right](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/)… And again, the fact that Ternus has spent the last many years overseeing the hardware pipeline suggests that he’ll know exactly how to reveal these devices to the world. Along those lines, to me, the most interesting part of the keynote may have been what many would say was the *least* interesting part: the AirPods 5 unveil. There, Ternus managed to convey a real sense of excitement about what amounted to a spec upgrade. Not only that, the features were ones handed down from other products, such as the AirPods Pro. But Ternus knows this is what Apple is all about: honing and whittling until breakthroughs become commonplace technology taken to the masses. [I’ve long argued](https://techcrunch.com/2009/09/17/the-importance-of-enthusiasm-in-any-product/?ref=spyglass.org) that this product [enthusiasm](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) was the actual key to the Jobs keynotes. He was genuinely [excited](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/) about these products, and it showed. And if he wasn’t, they didn’t make the cut! I think a few too many products made that cut that probably shouldn’t have in recent years. Including, most notably, the Vision Pro. It’s certainly an impressive piece of technology, but it was clearly [launched far too early](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/), with no large market to find. And by [many](https://x.com/markgurman/status/2049594124957778053?ref=spyglass.org) [accounts](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/06/03/kuo-vision-pro-successors-nixed/?ref=spyglass.org), Ternus may have felt similarly. [Apple needs this kind of editor again](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/). Hopefully Ternus can fill that role. This is a good start. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-11-at-1.17.03---PM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Apple Event Smelled of a Rich MahoganySome thoughts on the iPhone Duo event…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-013c4272-714f-424f-9e42-bf2a83b4c0b7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-10-at-6.38.22---PM-42ad3469-12c8-4bb5-84e9-e8cc7aac3ade.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/) [Let There Be ‘iPhone Duo’A few last-minute details about Apple’s first foldable…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c49c3423-ed45-4720-8062-b58e5fee53bc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-9--2026--10_10_34-AM-d4afbbfb-7ca6-40f0-9500-16159ae0df8e.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/) ### The Apple Event Smelled of a Rich Mahogany URL: https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/ Last updated: 2026-09-11T20:36:43.000Z “I’m John Burgundy?” Fine, that’s not actually how Apple’s latest keynote kicked off, but that’s how it would have if I were in charge. I mean, after the cinematic intro (complete with a cameo from a no-longer-the-“main character” Tim Cook), out walks John Ternus in his simple maroon shirt and jeans. Rumors had been swirling about a new iPhone in this very color and sure enough, later on he makes the reveal: “And we’re excited to introduce *Burgundy*. A sophisticated and unique new color.” Not quite: “[I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hzx8KHjQD6c&ref=spyglass.org).” But also not entirely far off! I’ll have more to say on Ternus and his performance in another post, but for now, I’d thought I’d run through some quick thoughts and notes on the contents of the keynote itself. *\[Update:* [*here's that other post*](https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/)*.\]* First, it was interesting/good that after his preamble reaffirming his full belief in and support of Apple’s principles and ideals, Ternus wasted no time making it clear where he believes the future of the company resides: AI. While in the past, the company has [swept aside](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) or [misdirected](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) from the technology — naturally, when it became a problem — he reframed it as the *key* element of what will likely drive Apple, and the industry going forward. And that’s because Apple, as it turns out, may have [exactly what they need](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) to lead here. Not only the best devices on which to run AI. But the device which is central to so many lives: [the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/). If the Mac was the “Digital Hub” back in Steve Jobs’ day leading Apple, the iPhone is the “Intelligent Personal Hub” per Ternus’ term. I mean it could be catchier, but we all get what he means. Again, the iPhone as the brains — both in terms of compute and memory — as we all enter the Age of AI. While others aim to ingest your data to power their AI. Apple, as it turns out, [already has it](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/). The iPhone 18 Pro models look great in that they look exactly like the iPhone 17 Pro models. But in Burgundy! And ‘Glacier’, their new light blue color. While the company believes they’ve reinvented Silver, the real killer for many will be the return of Black. Not Space Gray. Or Midnight. Or [Deep Blue Something](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ClCpfeIELw&ref=spyglass.org). Apple is [Back in Black](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAgnJDJN4VA&ref=spyglass.org). After a brief Siri AI walk-through (since much of it was already talked about at WWDC), we got an overview of the A20 Pro. 6-core CPU (including 2 “desktop class” “super cores”). 7-core GPU. 2 Neural Engines. 2 nanometers. Then more talk about thermal packaging and vapor chambers than you probably thought possible. But it’s all in the name of battery life, which seems truly excellent here, so we’ll allow it. The big boy Max model is pushing *two days* (for video playback), Apple claims. Then the cameras. Variable apertures. More pro than ever (which will make switching to the iPhone Duo a particularly hard call). And a way for Apple to try to stem at least some of the AI deep fake trickery on the rise. Despite the Dynamic Island getting smaller, it can now display three live activities. The Child Safety work continues to sound great (but again, was mostly discussed at WWDC). The new ‘iPhone Handoff’ ability comes just in time to entice some of us to buy *both* an iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone Duo since you can now easily swap numbers and connectivity between the two (well, provided you’re on T-Mobile in the US, or soon Verizon — AT&T? Where is our OG iPhone launch partner?!). Remember FineWoven? [Apple would prefer not to either](https://500ish.com/fine-woven-95c0bbb975fc?ref=spyglass.org). TechWoven remains. Now in Burgundy, of course. There’s also now a wrist strap for the iPhone to go along with last year’s crossbody strap. The price? $1,199 to start. Yes, that’s up $100 from last generation. Yes, [that’s due to](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) component costs and supply chain issues. No Apple doesn’t mention it. But they of course mention [the new Apple Upgrade program](https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/), which brings the price down to a mere $34.99/month. Which sure looks a lot nicer than $1,199. Pre-orders will indeed start on a Saturday this year, 9/12, clearly to avoid the anniversary of the terrorist attacks. The device still launches on Friday, 9/18 though. Ternus comes back out to introduce the AirPods 5 and he is psyched! No, these aren’t [the models with cameras](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) that Apple themselves accidentally leaked. Nor are they the top-of-the-line ‘Pro’ variant. These are the standard models, but this year they’re getting some ‘Pro’ elements that have trickled down. That includes active noise cancellation on the entry model and volume controls on the more expensive model. Why there are two models when the latter only costs *$20 more* and is clearly better — including longer battery life and a wireless charging case — I don’t know. I guess so Apple can proudly note that they’re keeping the same $129 starting price In an age where all other prices are moving the wrong way? Apple Watch Series 12 looks like a nice leap forward. Continuous heart monitoring. Better sensors and a better chip. Ceramic is back (including in a new blue shade), and Bronze is the new Burgundy here (though yes, there are Burgundy bands). Apple Watch Ultra 4 gets roughly 15 seconds of airtime as the sensors seem much the same as the Series 12, just with much better battery life. On the software side, the ‘Readiness’ score as well as more longevity-focused metrics get Apple up to par with rivals. But the real hero feature — or villain, depending on your point-of-view is 'Audio Intelligence'. [The last-minute rumors were true](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/). Apple Watch can now passively listen to what is going on around you throughout your day and note it down to distill back to you later in a daily recap. It can also quickly rewind what someone just said to you if you need to hear it again without asking them to repeat it! Apple is obviously quick to tout the focus on security for all of this — no actual audio is recorded — and it’s opt-in, with granular controls to use it sparingly. And yes, Apple is quick to tout key features for those who are deaf or hard of hearing. But still! It’s sort of wild that Apple is pushing forward with this given the obvious backlash it will garner. To be clear, I’m okay with this, but I’m not sure those I’m around with my Apple Watch will be? Perhaps Apple sees this as a way to get people used to such ideas ahead of those aforementioned AirPods with cameras — which will [clearly be called 'AirPods Pro with Visual Intelligence' ](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/#update)— which will be [doing similar things only with *images*](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/). We’ll see how this goes. Could it be something Apple has to bail on if public backlash mounts given the sheer number of Apple Watches in the wild? Or will everyone just quickly forget about it? At this point, Ternus comes back out for yes, “**one more thing**.” Has anyone ever been so excited to utter that famous phrase from Apple’s past? Given Ternus’ expression on delivery, I think not. He’s quick to note that others have done foldable devices, but that they’re more like “two phones awkwardly stuck together”. Apple intended to create a new device stemming from both the iPhone and the years of work on the iPad. And yes, the iPhone Duo *looks* great. Would it have looked even more great presented on stage, in-person? Probably, but you might also miss what is arguably the coolest feature: the way the software seamlessly transitions from open to closed. That’s the thing here. And the thing that the competition keeps failing to nail. It’s not just the hardware. It’s the hardware *and the software*. This is just Apple running their old playbook to perfection. This isn’t just an iPhone you can unfold, the software experience is going to be entirely different. If it seemed weird that Apple would do a more squat, [“passport”-style design](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/), they’re not just scaling the software down to fit, they’re moving elements around — notably the dock and other key controls to the side to leverage the wider footprint. And Apple clearly feels good enough about the hinge and crease that they‘re *touting* the ability to use it while half-folded, and have come up with specific use cases (and software tweaks) for those times. Also, the crease, in part, seems nearly invisible thanks to using *a matte screen* on the inside — seemingly a small obvious thing that also no one else is doing for some reason? What makes the crease more pronounced on the other devices? The reflections off of it. Yes, the camera system on the Duo will clearly be a step below the Pro models — that alone is a good argument for [not calling this the ’iPhone Ultra’](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBmz4h1ehNY&ref=spyglass.org) — but it still should be solid. Seemingly the dual camera system that Apple is aiming for with the *next* iteration of the iPhone Air? The new camera features that can be unlocked with multiple screens are fun. Yes, yes, the competition has done some of these before. No one cares. What people care about is a killer device. And again, that doesn’t just mean the hardware. That is literally half of the equation. Everyone always forgets that other half. If Apple gets thousands of developers onboard to update their apps for this new screen paradigm, look out. Apple seems to know they have [another potential hit here](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch) and pulled out all the big guns to help present it. Steve Lemay and Molly Anderson appear out of Apple Design — the latter wielding her British accent as is the way. Greg Joswiak emerges in night mode to bring the Apple Pencil support news (and drop the ‘Star White’ and ‘Night Sky’ names as he likes to do). Craig Federighi walks through iOS tailored for Duo and gets to say “heeeere’s Johny” to segue to Johny Srouji – who gets to talk through how they actually made the foldable fold. Joz comes back for the camera and folio case — with a kickstand! — which looks awesome. Very clever. Decidedly less clever is the price. But Apple was able to hit the all-important $1,999 starting point. Granted it only has 256GB of storage and if you’re already spending $2,000 on a phone, you’re probably going to want more than that, but still. Optics. The iPhone Duo is launching roughly a month after the Pro models, on October 23, which further muddies the Pro vs. Duo waters. I know Joz would tell you to get *both*. And with ‘iPhone Handoff’, you can now more easily accommodate that. For the low, low price of $3,198\. To start. With that, we’re back to Ternus to wrap things up. One hour and 18 minutes that felt neither long nor rushed. A solid event with cohesive messaging around this “Intelligent Personal Hub” notion that we might be hearing more about over the next decade or so as Ternus ramps up his time atop Apple. He’s kind of a big deal now. A true John Burgundy. **One more thing:** So which model am I gonna go with? Yeah, I need to try the iPhone Duo. In 'Night Sky'. Probably 512GB? Maybe 1TB? These are increasingly expensive decisions... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-10-at-6.36.06---PM.png) --- **Update**: As promised, some further thoughts on John Ternus in particular leading these keynotes... [Apple Unveils the CEO HandoffThe first John Ternus keynote was a success, and there’s a clear path for them to get even better…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-5df491c3-662a-4ca5-8760-41ebf2eb295e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-11-at-1.16.32---PM-4b5f5772-bd9e-4d2e-8561-ee25cfc95901.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ternus-note/) ### Let There Be 'iPhone Duo' URL: https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo/ Last updated: 2026-09-10T17:47:22.000Z 🔗 Apple to Unveil $2,000 'iPhone Duo' at High-Stakes Event • Bloomberg The day is upon us. Happy New iPhone Unveil Day to those who celebrate. But there's always time for one last leak – from who else, Mark Gurman: > That’s why Apple is [jumping in now](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-08/apple-s-2-000-plus-foldable-iphone-was-a-decade-in-the-making?ref=spyglass.org). The challenge is producing something compelling enough to justify the price. Its device, called the iPhone Duo, will start at $2,000\. That makes it costlier than rival models from [Samsung Electronics Co.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/005930:KS?ref=spyglass.org) and others, though the price is in line with Apple’s goal for a product with costly components. > > The entry-level version will include 256 gigabytes of storage, with Apple offering higher-capacity versions that will take the price all the way up to roughly $3,000\. Apple blew through its cost goals due to the recent memory shortage, so it’s eating some of the expense to keep within reach of $2,000\. It’s also passing the costs along to consumers who buy higher capacities. Earlier this week, Alex Kantrowitz and I [recorded our monthly *Big Technology* podcast episode](https://pod.link/1522960417/episode/OTdjNmZjNWMtYWM0NC0xMWYxLWI2ZDQtNGJhZTY3OWNlNTVi?ref=spyglass.org) where we previewed the Apple event and obviously we focused on Apple's forthcoming foldable. Part of the discussion was the name, noting they could go with something like 'iPhone Duo' – which [had been put out there previously](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/04/14/name-of-foldable-iphone?ref=spyglass.org), but didn't have nearly the pickup of the 'iPhone Fold' or 'iPhone Ultra' – simply because it didn't really make sense to call the device the 'Ultra' when spec-wise, it was likely to lag behind the iPhone Pro models a bit (due to the unique constraints of such a device). Most notably, all the rumors point to the camera system not being as advanced as those found on the Pro models. Given how important that element is to the iPhone – yeah, it would be weird to name this the 'iPhone Ultra'. And sure enough... 'iPhone Duo' is a good name. It immediately conveys exactly what the difference is: two screens. It also pairs nicely with Apple's [most recent](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) hit product, [the MacBook Neo](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/). And even the various 'Pro' models. Three letters, all ending in 'o'. And yes, Apple has some history with the 'Duo' name, most notably [in the PowerBook era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PowerBook%5FDuo?ref=spyglass.org) of the 1990s. Though the name actually will hearken back to one from rival Microsoft for many: [the Surface Duo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface%5FDuo?ref=spyglass.org) will clearly look [ahead of its time](https://mgs.blog/dreaming-of-a-foldable-ipad-6e738f8f3e56?ref=spyglass.org) later today! Including, perhaps, [the incredible hinge](https://500ish.com/it-hinges-on-c2fa33d31837?ref=spyglass.org). (As an aside, some of the people driving that device at Microsoft – [most notably, Panos Panay](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) – now work at Amazon, [perhaps working](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) [on some](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/) [similar devices](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/).) Back to the iPhone Duo, a starting price of $2,000 was [entirely](https://spyglass.org/flip-iphone/) [predictable](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/), of course. As was a specmaxxed $3,000 version [in our era of chip shortages](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/). The fact that it seemingly will be shipping in October, likely after the iPhone Pro variants ship later in September, is likely related to the same issues on the supply chain. But this will add a wrinkle to some peoples' [equations](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) – notably, *mine* – do you buy the iPhone 18 Pro now or wait for the iPhone Duo? *Please don't say 'why not both?' – please don't say 'why not both?' – please don't say 'why not both?'...* The color will seemingly be an easier choice: white or 'dark blue'? [Go Blue](https://mgs.blog/go-blue-3057246edaf5?ref=spyglass.org) all the way, baby. (I'm sure some people hope it will be dark enough so as to look black.) **One more thing:** in passing, Gurman notes that the iPhone Duo will work with the Apple Pencil. This is notable since no other iPhone models does. But it also makes sense if, when unfolded, the device is [more similar to an iPad (mini)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/). I had long been wondering if Apple might do [a special, smaller Apple Pencil](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch) – don't call it a stylus, [lest you blow it](https://techcrunch.com/2011/11/05/that-iphone-keyboard-is-still-coming/?ref=spyglass.org)! – for the device. And they [seemingly debated/tested it](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-08-30/john-ternus-management-team-apple-watch-series-12-foldable-iphone-apple-pencil-mtfvmdyu?ref=spyglass.org), but presumably this will just the regular-sized variant? **Okay, one more, one more thing:** Also buried in Gurman's report is this: > The new Apple Watch health capabilities will come alongside a revamped iPhone Health app. Another upgrade to the watch is a feature to compete with a slew of recent AI wearables: a privacy-focused enhancement for analyzing your day and providing a summary of what took place, including conversations. The system can’t show a transcript and doesn’t record or store audio. Um, *what*? A feature of the Apple Watch that keeps track of the... conversations you had throughout a day?! Depending on how – and how well – that works, it could become a core selling feature of the Apple Watch? And if Apple can really pull it off without recording... There will still be people weirded out knowing that your Apple Watch may be "listening" in real time. So this is seemingly a fairly wild feature for Apple to launch. But perhaps [testing the waters](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/) ahead of the 'EyePods' – [AirPods with cameras](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/), coming next year? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-9--2026--10_10_34-AM-1.png) --- **Update**: [Leaker pdfu on X](https://x.com/itspdfu/status/2097569073999540237?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) has published a bit more about what to expect fromt he "Ambient Sensing Summaries/Recaps" new feature for the Apple Watch mentioned above. Sort of wild the things it apparently will apparently be able to detect – using an ATM? Applying lotions? Attending a keynote? Flossing?! > Ambient Sensing summaries/Recaps have fields for time and date, place, meal info, people, and their relationship to the user. > > The code supports the following activity categories: > • Eating Meal > • Snacking > • Preparing Meal > • Making Drinks > • Baking > • Plating > •… [https://t.co/olgAxLhSEa](https://t.co/olgAxLhSEa?ref=spyglass.org) > > — pdfu (@itspdfu) [September 9, 2026](https://x.com/itspdfu/status/2097569073999540237?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=spyglass.org) --- **Update September 10, 2026**: Some thoughts after the event... [The Apple Event Smelled of a Rich MahoganySome thoughts on the iPhone Duo event…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ae308077-ee2e-4db6-a48c-696b3b71b74f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-09-10-at-6.38.22---PM-90c76260-95a7-443e-bf46-054dae274968.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-duo-event/) ### AI's Mixed Messages • Siri AI's Potential Developer Problem URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-ais-maniacal-mixed-messages-siri-ais-potential-developer-problem/ Last updated: 2026-09-08T12:59:17.000Z Do you feel like every other [headline](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) and talking point coming out of the companies at the AI frontier contradict each other? [You're not alone there](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/). The future is so bright... because of [the nuclear blast](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) that the rogue AI agents will trigger. [By accident](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) or [on purpose](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/). But not to worry! It will be great, as long as we [all agree](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) to get ahead of the problem. But if not, we have a great opportunity to fix the problem with the fantastic new technology we're creating. Meanwhile, Siri AI nears. You know, the version that [actually works](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/). For real [this time](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/). Well, unless developers decide not to work with it, which very well could happen given Apple's [many contentious relationships](https://spyglass.org/app-store-policy-shifts/). That will make creating the [mythical "personal assistant" tech](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) awfully hard... Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### You Cannot Unsee 'You Can See Everything' URL: https://spyglass.org/you-can-see-everything-teaser/ Last updated: 2026-09-23T16:23:16.000Z September 23, 2026: Hello many visitors from Google! Below are my thoughts on the **initial* (and incredible) teaser trailer for **You Can See Everything*, but if you'd like to jump right to the ***newly released full trailer**, [****here you go**](#update)****!** When I woke up this morning, my entire social media feed made me feel insane. I mean more than usual. It was [the same video](https://x.com/A24/status/2096757842435084301?ref=spyglass.org) over and over and over again. The quantity and repetition were such that I actually thought it was some kind of bug. It was not. It was simply the reaction to Nathan Fielder's new film, *You Can See Everything*. One of the reasons that I was so surprised that it took over my entire feed is that I'm not actually a Fielder fan. I'm not *against* him, and I'm quite sure I would be a fan, but I just have never watched his stuff. Sure, I've seen clips here and there, and they're good, but I just simply never have taken the time to sit down and watch his content. One day I will, I'm sure. And I'm also sure that day may be soon. Because *You Can See Everything* may have [the greatest teaser ever made](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGJSRFWALTI&ref=spyglass.org). I consider myself somewhat of a movie trailer connoisseur.[1](#one) My skills [aren't perfect](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/), but I can often tell if a movie is going to be good or not simply from the trailer.[2](#two) This is usually because modern trailers tell you way too fucking much about a movie. Which is part of the reason why the *You Can See Everything* teaser is so great. It tells you almost nothing, and yet everything you need to know. It's almost like a one-minute and eleven second piece of art in its own right. Three paragraphs in and I haven't address the convicted felon in the room... The trailer opens with the A24 logo over an ocean backdrop.[3](#three) Over the sound of the waves in the background, we get a voiceover: "I'm not that person..." It's a female voice, but fairly deep and certainly raspy. "I can promise you that." We cut to the woman. Holy shit. A true, ["Jesus Christ. That's Jason Bourne."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGqZz5DyDSQ&ref=spyglass.org) [meme](https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/4zzev3/whats%5Fup%5Fwith%5Fthe%5Fjesus%5Fchrist%5Fits%5Fjason%5Fbourne/?ref=spyglass.org) moment. But it's not Jason Bourne. Nor is it Jesus Christ... It certainly speaks to the time we're living in that my mind immediately races towards the notion that A24 may be using AI to re-create Elizabeth Holmes. But wait, "re-create"? She's not dead. She's just in prison. So my second thought is if A24 somehow secured her release to film some scenes for this movie. Or if her prison somehow looks like a cozy home on the beach. What. Is. Happening? Wait a second. Who is that she's talking to? And why are they sitting so close to one another? Again, is this AI?! At this point I vaguely recall that [there was some talk](https://www.theinsneider.com/p/nathan-fielder-elizabeth-holmes-documentary-sadie-sink-spider-man-4-mystery-role-wb-follow-up-post?ref=spyglass.org) about a documentary with her being filmed in stealth. Or was that bullshit? "I don't have anything to deceive you on, of course I'm not deceiving you." IS THAT A BABY NOISE IN THE BACKGROUND?! Then we cut to the person she's talking to. Nope, that rumor [wasn't bullshit](https://x.com/TheInSneider/status/2096768895181107508?ref=spyglass.org). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-07-at-8.47.13---PM.png) "I'm engaging with you as a human being." Is there a "hm" after that statement? There sure is. Nathan Fielder has a blank stare on his face that somehow doubles as a look of pure terror. The score and the continued sound of waves just add to the feeling. Cut back to Holmes – my brain is still trying to figure out if she's AI in some way. "Why would I deceive you?" She says in a tone that is one or two octaves higher than the famously deceptive voice she wielded at Theranos. "There's no... there's no reason for me to do that." Why is she smiling like that? Why is she shaking?! Does anyone else feel hypnotized? Why is Fielder's mouth open, jaw askew?! He finally speaks, "Okay. Alright. Okay, good chat." He's nodding. She's nodding. There are some more sort of inaudible noises. His eyes are trying to read her. Her eyes are pure puppy dog. This may be the most awkwardly intimate thing I have ever seen. Are these two people in love or is one about to murder the other one? It could go either way. It keeps going. "You're being real right now?" That is definitely a fucking baby making noises in the background! "I'm always being real." This cannot be real. Her unmoving facial expression cannot be real. That stare is unnerving. Does she blink? Even once? Then the music starts to drop. The eerie sounds set in. Who is manipulating who here?[4](#four) They cut to a wide shot. The two are leaning in to chat on a couch in a living room. This is definitely not prison, but is it real? There is a baby in a rocker. Holmes was shaking because she is rocking the baby with her foot! The baby yelps. We cut to the title card. "YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING" set over a shot of a car driving through a suburban street. It's sunny. "A documentary by Nathan Fielder & Lance Oppenheim".[5](#five) "In theaters this October." That's it. That's the entire thing. I've probably watched it 30 times. I've noticed something new each time. The headphones. The MacBook. The Tahiti poster. Why are her ears so red? Are they sunburnt? Is she nervous? It's utterly mesmerizing and completely unsettling. I almost wish I learned nothing more about the movie until seeing it, but because this dropped alongside [a surprise showing of the *actual* documentary at the Telluride Film Festival](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/07/movies/elizabeth-holmes-documentary-nathan-fielder-a24.html?ref=spyglass.org), it's basically impossible not to know more at this point. I won't spoil anything here except to say that it is real and it does sound spectacular. And again, I'm not a Nathan Fielder guy, nor am I particularly interested in Elizabeth Holmes. But this teaser is that good. It's a must-see. Every single person online seems to agree. --- **Update September 23, 2026**: And the actual full-length trailer dropped today. Fairly amazing how they make this *feel* like a thriller – or a horror story! --- 1 I actually used to run a blog reviewing them back in the day – true story! [↩](#) 2 To that end, I'm farily worried about Alejandro Iñárritu's upcoming [*Digger*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qORTe1wW3Wg&ref=spyglass.org). Hopefully the trailer is just off for a challenging film to pin down, like *One Battle After Another*. Meanwhile Aaron Sorkin's [*The Social Reckoning*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM4LkaXwGuY&ref=spyglass.org) looks like it could be firmly in the [great performance/bad movie](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/) camp... [↩](#) 3 Which is such a flex and points to the power of the studio's brand. [↩](#) 4 Are they both maniuplating *us*?! [↩](#) 5 [Oppenheimer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance%5FOppenheim?ref=spyglass.org), by the way, is also the director of that *other* A24 viral hit trailer this summer: *Primetime*. [](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fHXyqQOKL8&ref=spyglass.org)"You see how this looks, right?" [↩](#) ### Who is Holding the App Store Line? URL: https://spyglass.org/app-store-policy-shifts/ Last updated: 2026-09-07T16:37:20.000Z 🔗 Why Apple’s Phil Schiller is Stepping Down from Running the App Store • Bloomberg With the news last week that Phil Schiller would be stepping down from his longtime post atop Apple's App Store, [my initial reaction](https://spyglass.org/inklings-app-store-succession-cybercab-launch-azure-reporting-no-google-breakup-snaps-specs-situation/#:~:text=%F0%9F%91%8B%20Phil%20Schiller%20Abdicates%20App%20Store%20Throne) was that it could signal an impending shift on the policies that govern the store. Well, that may indeed be true, though perhaps not in the direction I anticipated. [Here's Mark Gurman](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-09-06/apple-s-new-ceo-like-cook-pay-package-shows-he-s-going-nowhere-sept-9-event-mtpvpcj1?ref=spyglass.org): > Now, Schiller is 66 and clearly wanted to have some semblance of retirement. He can focus on philanthropy and spend more time with family. But there’s a bit more to the story, I’m told. Ternus and services chief Eddy Cue want to make even more money from the App Store and figure out ways to raise margins and squeeze additional recurring revenue from the platform. Schiller, on the other hand, seems to believe that such moves will only further irk developers and governments. While there was no internal blowup or anything like that, it’s something he wanted no part of. Given his role, Schiller has been right in the center of the ongoing battles with developers – [most notably, Epic Games](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/) – over the App Store fees and other restrictions. Again, I thought that perhaps with [the move to John Ternus as CEO](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/), it could also be [an obvious time](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) to [revisit such policies](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/). But I hadn't considered that Apple could actually be in favor of making them *more* onerous. This is obviously just a single report, and I'm wary that it's from someone aiming to frame Schiller as the champion of developers as he rides off, after years of hostilities. But [as John Gruber recalls](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/09/06/gurman-schiller-app-store?ref=spyglass.org), as far back [as 2011](https://daringfireball.net/2021/06/app%5Fstore%5Fthe%5Fschiller%5Fcut?ref=spyglass.org), Schiller was at least bringing up the notion of changing App Store policies to be more advantageous to developers. The rationale was probably some mixture of both being magnanimous – Apple never set out for the App Store to be a big money-maker, and while it became one, perhaps they should stick to their original ideals – but also pragmatic: the App Store policies were under attack back then and this would only likely intensify, as Schiller correctly predicted. Nothing changed, of course – or at least not in a major way, beyond some tweaks to policies and cuts [here and there](https://spyglass.org/eu-app-store/), increasingly [due to legislation](https://spyglass.org/apple-to-eu-drop-dead/) and [lawsuits](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/) around the world. But Schiller certainly deserves credit for reading this correctly 15 years ago, and emailing no less than Steve Jobs and Eddy Cue about it. In that light, this new report could indeed be *bad news* for developers. What if Schiller was the one not only tasked with [holding the line](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/) of the App Store policies, but was actually also the one stopping them from getting *worse*? What I'm saying is that Epic's [Tim Sweeney perhaps](https://x.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/2094556865824690398?ref=spyglass.org) shouldn't be holding his breath. [His battles with Schiller](https://spyglass.org/apples-oh-shit-we-fucked-up-moment/) may be over, but what if the new boss isn't just the same as the old boss, *what if they are worse*? For what it's worth, even if Apple does go the opposite way here and seeks to milk the App Store – the centerpiece of their [increasingly all-important](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/) Services [strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/) and [segment](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) – for more money, I wouldn't expect, say, the revenue split to get *worse*. That would just be Apple asking for even more lawsuits and legislation. But instead, we could see a new wave of fees. Apple would probably tie these to new capabilities/offerings. Because again, they're not insane, but this report suggests that it might be a bit too easy to see the ultimate goal of such strategies. And that Schiller wanted nothing to do with that... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-7--2026--05_30_40-PM.png) Look at this wonderful image ChatGPT dreamed up for me with the most basic prompt. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple’s EU App Store ArmisticeMight it point to a path forward for the US App Store too?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-59f7577a-d25c-4d8a-b20d-94349b0f746f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_apple_logo_giving_a_peace_sign_--ar_43_--profile_frkb_2ceaa917-619b-45d5-9406-64f79c3dfe0c_3-1-319a9844-6c9f-4cef-b9e5-0dd7af9f2fe1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/) [Apple’s App Store Fees Live to Die Another Day...perhaps today. Almost certainly soon.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-e7847a35-332d-4eb2-ae7b-d879517d08fa.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/images-1-78798f98-1b1a-4c11-b944-bbc34a0a89cf.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/) [The Death of the 30% CutGoogle ends the Play Store insanity, putting the pressure on Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-65869928-48d6-4228-bf60-810b290b06a3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-5--2026--04_26_54-PM-8e338231-da4b-4bfb-b4bd-e3644efd504c.png)](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) ### Inklings #025 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-app-store-succession-cybercab-launch-azure-reporting-no-google-breakup-snaps-specs-situation/ Last updated: 2026-09-04T17:28:29.000Z Big week for the [frontier AI model race](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) with GPT-6 Astra, Fable/Mythos 5.1, and to less extents, Gemini 3.8 Flash and Must Spark 1.3 all pushed out the door, which is obviously not a coincidence. Next week, all eyes turn to Apple to see if they can turn foldables into a (mass scale) thing. A $2,000 starting point would be rough (though [somewhat mitigated](https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/)), but all other [signs](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/) ([and predictions](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch)) point to 'yes'. Happy September, American college football (and English futbol) is very much in the air. 🍂🏈⚽️ ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **👋** [**Phil Schiller Abdicates App Store Throne**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-31/apple-s-phil-schiller-steps-down-from-running-app-store-and-product-events?ref=spyglass.org) **–** On one hand, yes, it's [a natural time](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/09/03/schiller-steps-down?ref=spyglass.org) for him to step down with Cook leaving the CEO perch. On the other, it's a little weird this news leaked at the *exact same time* of that transition – couldn't everyone have waited, I don't know, a couple weeks? Unless perhaps the move is a key part of that transition, with John Ternus looking to turn a new leaf with the App Store and developers? I know this sounds a bit conspiratorial, and yes, [I've been predicting it](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/#:~:text=So%20yeah%2C%20they%20need%20Epic%20to%20settle.%20Can%20a%20CEO%20change%20at%20Apple%20somehow%20make%20that%20happen%3F%20Might%20Tim%20Sweeney%20need%20to%20see%20other%20concessions%3F%20Perhaps%20new%20leadership%20for%20the%20App%20Store%20itself%3F%20This%20isn%27t%20game%20over%2C%20but%20it%27s%20close...), but, well, [there are signs](https://x.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/2094556865824690398?ref=spyglass.org) that this points to some bigger [changes in direction](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) forthcoming for the store. Which are [long](https://500ish.com/the-app-store-commandments-a867a0409dff?ref=spyglass.org) [overdue](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) and have put Apple in a precarious spot both [legally](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) and from a [business-perspective](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/), all [around the world](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/). I'm just saying it's possible! **One more thing:** Schiller also oversaw all Apple events. Might we see a move back to live onstage keynotes? [Also](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/) [long](https://500ish.com/the-too-slick-apple-event-70c579ccec0f?ref=spyglass.org) [overdue](https://spyglass.org/sweet-iphone-16-2/), IMO. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-31/apple-s-phil-schiller-steps-down-from-running-app-store-and-product-events?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🚕** [**The Unusually Muted Tesla Cybercab Launch**](https://www.theverge.com/transportation/989501/tesla-cybercab-launch-robotaxi-austin-musk?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Look, to their credit, it's 2026 and Tesla has indeed [manufactured some Cybercabs](https://spyglass.org/tesla-cybercab/). *45 of them to be exact*. They're gold and, if we're being honest, pretty hideous. They look sort of cheap and tacky? Slightly better than the Cybertruck, but also in a color that only Donald Trump or [Auric Goldfinger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auric%5FGoldfinger?ref=spyglass.org) could love. I guess they stand out though, like the yellow taxis of old. Still, I must prefer [the Zoox aesthetic](https://zoox.com/?ref=spyglass.org). (And, to be fair, I've [never been a fan of the Tesla look](https://spyglass.org/rivian-looks-nicer-than-tesla/) and feel.) I'm not sure this launch event was quite what everyone was looking for as the most notable element seems to be what *wasn't* there: the press or *even Elon Musk*. Still, they did manage to ship, so kudos on that. No steering wheel! Legally? [Unclear](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-cybercab-event-set-thursday-with-few-details-2026-09-03/?ref=spyglass.org) at [this point](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/business/tesla-cybercab-nhtsa-investigation.html?ref=spyglass.org). But that's pretty par for Elon's course. It also [may perform miracles](https://x.com/ZacksJerryRig/status/2095651384448462875?s=20&ref=spyglass.org)? Let's see how 2027 goes, [that's when the real promises kick in](https://spyglass.org/teslas-tenuous-timelines/). Can Tesla scale Cybercab to compete with Waymo? Or even Uber? Will they actually *sell* these cars to consumers? [For $30,000](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo-uubnajWM&ref=spyglass.org)? Or will it all end up a part of [SpaceX's mission](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/)? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/transportation/989501/tesla-cybercab-launch-robotaxi-austin-musk?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **☁️** [**Microsoft Shifts Reporting Structure**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsoft-to-change-reporting-structure-to-reflect-effects-of-ai-59dce66d?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While this is being framed as the company trying to be more transparent with regard to Azure, there's certainly [an argument to be made](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2095425402994864214?ref=spyglass.org) that it actually makes the business *more opaque* in [certain ways](https://x.com/CZituo/status/2095470091856936975?ref=spyglass.org) – notably, it's now harder to back into just how much of Microsoft's Cloud business might be directly tied to OpenAI... It's also interesting just how top-heavy this makes Microsoft from a segment perspective – 'Agents & Infra' is now $75B versus just $15B or so for 'Devices & Consumer' on a quarterly basis. That almost [seems like](https://bsky.app/profile/grork.bsky.social/post/3mulzgpvh522w?ref=spyglass.org) they're trying to position the latter to eventually be cleaved off/spun-out? There's a long history of such a movie, with HP being a prime recent example, but would Nadella dare put Windows in [an actually separate company](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3mulzznuhtc2e?ref=spyglass.org)? I mean, maybe if it's small enough! Certainly it gives them a way to ease [the Xbox headache](https://spyglass.org/the-resuscitation-of-xbox/)... But that's undoubtedly reading too much into it – at least for now. The easier story is that Azure is now a $100B/year business, so it's a natural time to further break it out. But there are second-order effects! **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsoft-to-change-reporting-structure-to-reflect-effects-of-ai-59dce66d?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **⚖️** [**Google Avoids a Breakup of its Ad Tech Business**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/02/technology/google-ad-tech-remedies.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Who could have foreseen? Except pretty much everyone – well [maybe not Lina Khan](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/), [Tim Wu](https://spyglass.org/modern-antitrust-keeps-failing/), and their [contemporaries](https://spyglass.org/mopping-the-floor-with-antitrust/). I wrote about why such outcomes were going to keep happening [in April 2025](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) – even in the cases the government [technically wins](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/)! – because there's an obvious and natural mismatch between litigating the past and [trying to fix the future](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/). I mean, that's generally true, but with tech, things move far too fast and in many cases, [natural "disruption"](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/) of the things being litigated are already underway, as was the case in the Google cases, which made the proposed remedies [pointless at best](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) and [problematic at worst](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) – imagine if the government had forced Meta to sell off Instagram, they'd [effectively be destroying their overall business](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/). This is all going to get worse with AI, where things are moving even faster. Good luck. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/02/technology/google-ad-tech-remedies.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **😎** [**Can Evan Spiegel Sell the World on $2,195 Smart Glasses?**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/can-evan-spiegel-sell-the-world-on-2-195-smart-glasses-3fb9b8ca?ref=spyglass.org) – A very [Betteridge's Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s%5Flaw%5Fof%5Fheadlines?ref=spyglass.org) headline from *WSJ* here. Also, [my own such headline](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/) was better three months ago. Look, I don't want to be a dick, but doubling down here with a big launch in a couple of weeks just looks stubborn, if not stupid. I get that Snap is sort of out of options after failing to entice outside investors and pouring so many resources into this project with the promise of a 2026 launch, but the timing is just all wrong. Not only are the glasses an order of magnitude too expensive – [a lesson](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) even mighty Apple [had to learn](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) the hard way – but there's now [growing backlash](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) against such wearables [thanks to](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) their [old nemesis Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/). Yes, AR is different from AI, but the public is not going to care about that difference, if they care about the product at all! And unlike Meta with Quest, Snap doesn't have [the profits](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) to weather this being a dud. Hard to see how this ends; I still think the company should [try to go private again](https://spyglass.org/snap-adds-ads/) if they're going to insist on such efforts. Get an AI narrative and the investors will come for that user base alone... **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/can-evan-spiegel-sell-the-world-on-2-195-smart-glasses-3fb9b8ca?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ### I Wrote... 🔗 OpenAI's AGI Eras Tour • Spyglass 🔗 Can Someone Finally Architect Personal Assistant AI? • Spyglass ### I Quote... > "There’s a saying here in Tennessee. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered." – **Jonathan Skrmetti**, Tennesse's attorney general, [in a meeting](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/29/technology/meta-states-settlement.html?ref=spyglass.org) to urge his fellow AGs to take Meta's $17B offer to settle the social media case against them. As the quote so wonderfully illustrates, that's a lot of money to those states. [It is not a lot of money to Meta](https://spyglass.org/metas-poke-on-the-wrist/). Certainly not $200B, *let alone $1.4T*. As the settlement makes clear – and the reporting that they were trying to settle before the trial even started – Meta was terrified of losing the case. Beyond the money, it was going to be yet another blow to their reputation – [undoubtedly the biggest one yet](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/) – just as the company is trying to move on from social media, looking towards [their AI future](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-context-watermelon-hatch/). ### Thoughts On... 🔗 Back to the Frontier AI Races • Netflix Out-YouTubes YouTube • Spyglass 🔗 OpenAI's Comeback • Hollywood's Ticket Disaster • Spyglass ### Asides... - [Conflicts of interest](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) for **VCs** may [no longer matter for Big AI](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/technology/anthropic-ipo-investors-winners.html?ref=spyglass.org), but they still seem to for smaller **AI startups**, particularly in [the "personal assistant"](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) space... **\[**[**Upstarts**](https://www.upstartsmedia.com/p/scoop-town-fundraise-vc-reshuffle?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Anthropic** has officially [licked enough](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) **Trump administration** boots to be [back in](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) the good graces. Well, [maybe not](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/pentagon-says-its-anthropic-ban-is-on-despite-lutnick-remarks?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/02/lutnick-anthropic-trump?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - But they should be back with **large enterprise customers** thanks to the **data retention** changes. Let's see what it does to [the Fable numbers](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-nvidia-perplexity-fables-stalled-growth/#:~:text=Anthropic%27s%20Fable%20Plateau...)... **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/anthropic-data-retention.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **MapQuest**, last heard from around the time of ["Lazy Sunday"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRhTeaa%5FB98&ref=spyglass.org) is um, *atop the *App Store**. [Blame Canada](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA&ref=spyglass.org) if you want, but [unlike Google and Apple](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/01/us/lake-ontario-america-name-apple-maps-mapquest.html?ref=spyglass.org), they refuse to budge on the '**Lake America**' naming nonsense. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/08/31/mapquest-tops-app-store-charts/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta** mandating **Slack** usage across the company is wild to [those of us](https://x.com/aunder/status/2095297699717472394?ref=spyglass.org) who recall the company's attempt to directly compete in the space. AI, bringing former enemies together. Microsoft dropping Teams for Slack next? 🤣 **\[**[**BI**](https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-switching-from-google-chat-slack-for-ai-agents-2026-9?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I'm sure '**Google Pics**' – their new AI-centric **Canva/Adobe competitor** – won't be confused with Google Photos like every single day. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/987423/google-pics-ai-image-editor-generator?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - As **Howard Stern** cuts back to one show a week on SiriusXM, he is putting a video version on **HBO Max** – sort of backing [into podcasting](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/), in a way! **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/howard-stern-new-hbo-max-deal-weekly-siriusxm-show-1236685643/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Has **Steve Ballmer** sunk the **Clippers**? It sure looks that way. From the [logo redesign](https://spyglass.org/los-angeles-titanics/) to the **Kwahi Leonard** shitshow, it's not a great look. But [I prefer to think](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2095631556450701779?ref=spyglass.org) that it was to move them to Seattle to be reborn as the Supersonics. **\[**[**FOS**](https://frontofficesports.com/article/clippers-kawhi-leonard-steve-ballmer-punishment-spotlight/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... Oh look, Apple sees [some success](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) with [an idea](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) – here: low-priced, colorful laptops – and the [industry](https://www.theverge.com/tech/988765/lenovo-ideapad-vibe-laptop-macbook-neo-competitor-ifa-colors-price-specs?ref=spyglass.org) quickly [follows](https://www.theverge.com/gadgets/987839/dell-14s-student-laptop-ifa-2026-price-specs?ref=spyglass.org). The problem, of course, will be that they lack Apple Silicon and run Windows. But otherwise, yeah, similar. [Who could have known](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/) such [a simple formula](https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/) would be a [success](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/)?... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/09/268683_Lenovo_IdeaPad_Vibe_IFA_2026_ADiBenedetto_0002.webp)](https://www.theverge.com/tech/988765/lenovo-ideapad-vibe-laptop-macbook-neo-competitor-ifa-colors-price-specs?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"See Out Loud" by Interpol**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoQ5f1lYmLM&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Stroud Brewery LOL Light Lager**](https://stroudbrewery.com/products/lol?srsltid=AfmBOopIcid0dtRatpXn9czJJWxQZpAAMKHV%5FW1vD0PXaB0PWk9x88Rt&variant=44091313094880&ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### OpenAI's AGI Eras Tour URL: https://spyglass.org/agi-2026/ Last updated: 2026-09-04T06:52:47.000Z It’s a question as old as time. Or at least as old as *Terminator 2*. Is AGI here? With the [launch](https://www.techmeme.com/260903/p33?ref=spyglass.org#a260903p33) today of '[GPT-6 Astra](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QNsdr-Qx%5FI&ref=spyglass.org)', **yes**, says OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman. Well, yes-*ish*. [As Frederic Lardinois reports for *The New Stack*](https://thenewstack.io/openai-gpt6-astra-benchmarks/?ref=spyglass.org): > During a press briefing ahead of the launch, OpenAI President Greg Brockman took things a bit further than the benchmarks, though. After acknowledging that AGI remains a “gray, fuzzy thing,” he suggested future observers might look back at Astra as the model that marked its arrival. > > “I think it’s not unreasonable to feel that we are now in the AGI era,” Brockman said. Asked whether OpenAI was formally declaring that it had achieved AGI, he said the term was no longer tied to a contractual trigger(referring to its [earlier agreement with Microsoft](https://openai.com/index/next-phase-of-microsoft-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org)) and described it instead as a “mission concept or spiritual concept.” He closed the briefing with: “Welcome to the AGI era.” It's settled then. We can all agree that [no one could ever agree](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) on an actual definition of "AGI" – not even Microsoft and OpenAI despite it [insanely being](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) a key contractual agreement – so Brockman is essentially calling it what it has become: a [marketing](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) term. And so what's the downside in using it to your marketing advantage? Absolutely nothing! So we're here, baby. [The singularity](https://x.com/tobi/status/2095600446559662168?ref=spyglass.org). AGI. CGI. CSI: Miami. It's all happening. Honestly, it's a bit disappointing to see OpenAI be so flippant here. Yes, the term was way too loaded, but that was in no small part OpenAI's own fault [over the past many years](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) – including, yes, [due to 'The Clause' with Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/). Declaring it now to the press alongside the release of a new model, even if you try to couch your comments, makes it seem like the whole world is going to change overnight. Every headline is going to be that quote. "Welcome to the AGI era." And the reality is that nothing is going to change overnight. And such proclamations are not going to help the [growing AI backlash](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/)! AGI is here and my computer [still can't automatically get](https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/) my mom home from the airport? That's not to say all the progress in AI isn't amazing – it is! – but this declaration undercuts the [actual work](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-back-to-the-frontier-ai-races-netflix-out-youtubes-youtube/) here. Back to Lardinois: > According to OpenAI’s Aidan Clark. Astra was OpenAI’s largest training run to date. “It’s the first time we’ve pre-trained on more than 100,000 GPUs at our Stargate site in Texas,” he said. Clark also noted that Astra is the first OpenAI model release where earlier models played a significant role in supervising the training process. Yes, that's a reference to the other [mythical acronym](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) here: [RSI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org). If that work keeps up and accelerates, it's arguably far more important than an AGI declaration. That could be [actual AI takeoff](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,I%20Quote...,-%22The%20faster%20the). Which is equal parts exciting and [terrifying](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/). Anyway, it's interesting that both Brockman [and Sam Altman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeizK1M7V7E&ref=spyglass.org) are trying to frame this moment in hindsight already. That we'll look back upon today and think this is the moment when AGI was here. Maybe, but honestly probably not. Because as good as Astra may be, [it's not clear](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/) that there will be some sort of singular moment in time where everything changed with AI. That sounds like something that happens in movies. [Like in *Terminator 2*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DQsG3TKQ0I&ref=spyglass.org). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Endless Rebranding of AIFrom AI to AGI to Superintelligence to... brands trying to make Granular Superintelligence happen![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-eb6dd6f7-a0b7-4aab-8470-f68a1057be35.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_visual_representation_of_superintelligence_--v_7_d8edb2ca-06b5-49bc-8f5a-a59e673a0ed0_0-eb40ff0e-3354-4466-8a94-f0cfb2f6d878.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-bc34e2a5-0fbf-40de-9401-d034030b7cd5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-f914cd5a-1b59-48bf-9525-8b17fdae0620.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) [Microsoft Claws Away ‘The Clause’ as OpenAI Claws Back Some IndependenceOpenAI and Microsoft update the agreement they just updated…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b370c1c4-0081-4632-8f1d-aa0c3657b78c.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-27--2026--08_36_20-PM-f539d192-6e7d-484a-9f28-fb1dc24ca71a.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) [It Depends What the Meaning of the Acronym ‘AGI’ IsElon Musk Sues OpenAI for Violating the Company’s Principles Musk said the prominent A.I. start-up had put profits and commercial interests ahead of seeking to benefit humanity. NYT Adam Satariano, Cade Metz & Tripp Mickle When the news first hit, it was almost a throwaway – of course Elon![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8a0ccaee-c14b-4e26-afa7-67767d18755f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_hollywood_run_by_robots_7316d768-86f4-4691-bef7-a44e101f35d7-1-9171ff2f-9085-4729-9720-d4ef74141566.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) [AGI Is Here and Will Never BeClaude 3 Opus and AGI - Marginal REVOLUTIONAs many MR readers will know, I don’t think the concept of AGI is especially well-defined. Can the thing dribble a basketball “with smarts”? Probably not. Then its intelligence isn’t general. You might think that kind of intelligence “doesn’t matter,![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-eab44fef-dbee-459b-9e5d-b9e91b9acb97.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MGS22-AGI-Robot--1--1-0fd34d8e-c68a-4b51-b6d0-d52959ff360b.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/) ### Back to the Frontier AI Races • Netflix Out-YouTubes YouTube URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-back-to-the-frontier-ai-races-netflix-out-youtubes-youtube/ Last updated: 2026-09-03T12:41:05.000Z The [caution flags](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) have been lifted. We're back off to the frontier model races this week! While the [Netflix and YouTube race](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) continues unabated. Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Can Someone Finally Architect Personal Assistant AI? URL: https://spyglass.org/the-swiss-assistant/ Last updated: 2026-09-02T16:20:44.000Z Sometimes I feel like I'm [The Architect](https://matrix.fandom.com/wiki/The%5FArchitect?ref=spyglass.org) in *The Matrix*. You know, the guy in the room full of monitors in *Reloaded* who seems exasperated to have to explain to Neo that this is not the first Matrix nor is he the first version of 'The One'... As the hype builds around AI "personal assistants", there's a real sense of deja vu. Basically since the dawn of technology, this has been viewed as the holy grail, certainly for consumer-facing services. From [Apple's 'Knowledge Navigator'](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/#:~:text=having%20fun.-,One%20more%20thing%3A,-watching%20the%20%27Knowledge) concept video to [Microsoft 'Bob'](https://spyglass.org/redmond-we-have-a-problem/#footnote) to [Clippy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-clippy-copilot-ai/) to [Cortana](https://mgs.blog/bill-gates-reflecting-back-on-his-first-book-d37d9937905e?ref=spyglass.org) to [Copilot](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) and everything in between, one day, such technology is just going to do all the tedious tasks for us. Sadly, that day never comes. Often for a whole host of reasons, but ultimately, the technology simply isn't good enough. While it might be able to execute a demo or two, it quickly breaks at basically every other seam. It doesn't even seem to really matter what the underlying technology is, if it works at all, nothing can scale. Enter AI, the latest iteration of 'The One'. Once ChatGPT cracked the code on chat-based AI, the talk [quickly started shifting to "agents"](https://spyglass.org/ai-agents/). That is, the prospect that the AI would be able to autonomously do things for you in the very near future. But on the way to this – yet again – inevitability, a more enterprising use case got in the way: coding. While OpenAI was [focused on](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) various consumer use cases, Anthropic found product/market fit with Claude Code (and Cursor, to some degree, largely powered by Anthropic's models). OpenAI didn't seem to realize what a big deal this would be at first – to their credit, [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Admits%20Being%20Behind%20in%20AI%20Coding) [neither did Google](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/)! – but if Anthropic's surging business didn't quickly prove it, zooming past OpenAI in valuation certainly did. And that's because coding is both a big market, but also because it seems like Claude Code was the entry point to broader agentic uses. Thus, 'Cowork' was born. OpenAI quickly [reoriented](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) with Codex, while [SpaceX bought Cursor](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) (after [merging with xAI](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/), of course). Google and Meta are also rushing towards this opportunity. But it seems like it's going to be hard to dislodge those big three in coding specifically. So the talk is now once again shifting back to the original and forever goal: personal assistants. That is, consumer-oriented agents. This too required a wake up call, *in the form of a lobster*. When OpenClaw exploded out of the cage – perhaps to the point where Apple was selling out of Mac minis! – it was clear there was something to the notion of [personal agents](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/). Of course, that was *always* clear – again, see the past 50 years or so of computing – but the difference is that the technology may be right this time. *May*. While OpenClaw was cool and fun, [I quickly pointed out the challenges](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) in getting mass consumer adoption for such projects. Allow myself to quote... myself (because it's a good line, if I do say so myself): > "People tend to fall in love with great movements but end up marrying great products." OpenClaw was a movement, we still needed that great product. All the powers that be were off to the races again. Meta (smartly) tried to jump ahead [by buying Manus](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/). But [China had other plans](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3%20China%20Blocks%20Meta%27s%20Manus%20Deal). NVIDIA tried to layer on top of OpenClaw, recognizing the obvious security issues, with 'NemoClaw'. But despite [the Jensen Hype Machine out in full force](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/), we were still left searching. Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft all had their talking points ready, [if not exactly their products](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/). As did Anthropic and OpenAI. To their credit, SpaceXAI may have actually been the first of the big players to move here. Their Grok Bot is getting a lot of buzz in beta testing. Still mainly around work-oriented tasks, [but it *looks and feels* awfully consumer-y](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/978666/spacexai-grok-bot-ai-agent-beta-launch?ref=spyglass.org). And it comes just as a handful of startups, notably Instinct and Town, [have entered the chat](https://www.newcomer.co/p/amid-personal-assistant-investor?ref=spyglass.org). It took approximately 13 seconds for them both to [achieve unicorn status](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-latest-viral-ai-assistant-rocketing-across-silicon-valley-abb46276?ref=spyglass.org). Why? Personal assistant AI, baby! Of the two, Instinct seems to be getting the most love right now, as it's more consumer-focused and thanks to its unique onboarding flow and super proactive nature. That, in turn, has led to some [inevitable backlash around security and trust](https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/24/instincts-powerful-ai-assistant-is-raising-privacy-and-security-concerns/?ref=spyglass.org). Regardless, we seem to be in a full-on race once again towards the mythical personal assistant. Any day now, [we should see 'Project Hatch', hatch](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-profit-crown-nvidias-hugging-face-deal-hugging-faces-robot-metas-openclaw/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%A3%20Meta%27s%20%27OpenClaw%20for%20Normies%27%20Nears). That is, Meta's ['OpenClaw for Normies'](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-context-watermelon-hatch/). Amazon is [clearly](https://www.engadget.com/2210614/amazon-is-reportedly-working-on-a-more-powerful-agentic-alexa-assistant/?ref=spyglass.org) cooking up something similar, as is Microsoft as they work towards [their inevitable "Super App" ](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/)– seemingly [a key ingredient](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) in this race. Apple is on the verge of launching Siri AI – [for real this time](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/) – with many of these capabilities. And Google has 'Gemini Spark' – because everyone must have some sort of '[Spark](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/)' AI [product](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) – rolling out in [phases](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/). Meanwhile, OpenClaw is back [with version 2.0](https://openclaw.ai/blog/openclaw-2-accidentally?ref=spyglass.org) of their offering, which they promise has learned from the lessons of complicated onboarding and the like. So the stage is set. But will it actually work this time? Are we really going to get viable personal assistant technology? Products that are actually useful? For certain tasks, I think so. But for many things, it's still hard to see it. Obviously a lot of it will depend on the underlying technology. The models. While Anthropic and OpenAI maintain their leads in terms of agentic flows, SpaceXAI and Meta [are clearly gunning for them](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/) with new releases due soon. But the question could ultimately come down to how much it matters to control the whole stack, as it were – *the model and the harness* – versus having the best harness which can leverage the best models, no matter who they're made by. This has become more interesting in recent weeks with [the surge of Chinese "open" models](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/). While they may not be quite at the frontier, they're close. And they're currently offering such closeness at fractions of the American prices. (Or, of course, given the open weights, you can download the models yourself, if you have machines powerful enough to run them locally.) As things stand right now, there's certainly a case to be made that [being model agnostic may be advantageous](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/). And that would point to the startups here standing a chance. While OpenClaw's founder was [already "hackquired"](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190826703/claws-out-for-openclaw?ref=spyglass.org), the open source project lives on, though some seem skeptical of how at-arms-length it can actually be from OpenAI given that relationship. Or NVIDIA, given that relationship. But OpenRouter has certainly showcased how you can drive immense value in such an approach. And while they too were [acquired](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-16/stripe-nears-deal-to-buy-ai-firm-openrouter-for-over-7-billion?ref=spyglass.org), the fact that it's Stripe, a company not directly in the AI model space, [seems like a good situation](https://spyglass.org/inklings-newfangled-hackquisitions-epic-v-apple-meta-v-states-openai-v-apple-stripe-of-ai-vision-pro-pickle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%AA%99%20%27The%20Stripe%20of%20AI%27%20Joins%20Stripe) in terms of maintaining a "Switzerland"-like status. On the flip side, OpenAI just [terminated](https://openai.com/index/our-decision-on-cursor-following-its-acquisition-by-spacex/?ref=spyglass.org) their contract with Cursor after the SpaceX deal, showcasing the risk of playing up this agnostic nature. And while Anthropic was [quick to note](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openai-end-partnership-with-spacexs-cursor-2026-08-29/?ref=spyglass.org) their continued support of Cursor, you may recall when they helped [torpedo](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) OpenAI's Windsurf [deal](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) by pulling their models... I point that out because it seems quite likely that Instinct and Town will have offers to sell soon, if they don't already. And depending on the acquirer, it could help or hurt or both (as was the case with Cursor) their chances of truly winning the space. There's also the question of if owning even more of the stack will matter. By that I mean, *the actual devices* on which these services are used. Beyond being able to tailor the models and software to run more efficiently, there's the privacy angle here as well. Obviously, Apple, Google, Samsung, and [to some degree](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-recall-security/) Microsoft are [best positioned](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) in that world. Though Meta and OpenAI would [argue](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) that [new devices](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) are needed for these [new use cases](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/). [Is voice the unlock to all of this](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/)? It is interesting that seemingly no one has the absolute combination of model (that they [fully control](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/)), harness, and hardware... At least not yet! Maybe that doesn't matter. There's certainly a case to be made that all that will actually matter in the end is a killer product. Again, a few of the current offerings have interesting elements, but no one has nailed the true "personal assistant" experience. And while you can finally at least squint to see elements of it, it's still hard to see how anyone will in full. Even if we get comfortable having these agents [handle our email](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/), will we ever fully offload say, travel? From research to booking. Certainly the former, but the latter still feels like a minefield of options and edge cases. Also, that's the example that is always cited forever and ever around such technology. But how much does that actually matter to the "average" consumer anyway? How many trips are they really booking in a year? Regardless, that use case does not pass [the "toothbrush test"](https://medium.com/behavior-design/the-toothbrush-trick-used-by-googles-ceo-to-get-customers-to-come-back-910d81c272b4?ref=spyglass.org). [I keep coming back](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-profit-crown-nvidias-hugging-face-deal-hugging-faces-robot-metas-openclaw/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%86%20Hugging%20Face%27s%20%24400%20Duck%20Robot) to the idea that the first killer use cases may be more "fun" in nature. Letting agents do (lightweight) tasks for you that result in absolute delight. Opening up your to-do list and getting more comfortable over time with the technology taking over – again, assuming it can. It will be baby steps, not one big handover. Is a startup well positioned without the baggage of other products weighing them down? The models protected OpenAI and Anthropic, what's the moat here? Is being 'Switzerland' enough? [OpenAI has a strong product delight history](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/). Meta always [talks a big game](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) and has billions of users – not to mention WhatsApp – but some major [trust issues](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/), and [they keep missing](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/). Google has all the data – and Gmail! – but also some [trust-in-themselves](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) issues. Can [Apple actually do it](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) this time? No but [seriously](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/28/apples-big-fall/?ref=spyglass.org). There's a long way between even just the technology and being a fully trusted and useful personal assistant. And we've been promised such things many times, for decades. There needs to be a killer product and a killer use case. Ideally many, but let's start with one? To quote The Architect, "Hope, it is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and your greatest weakness." 🎙️ Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) ### OpenAI's Comeback • Hollywood's Ticket Disaster URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-openais-potential-comeback-hollywoods-movie-tickets-sold-disaster/ Last updated: 2026-09-02T13:21:49.000Z An OpenAI cover story gets thrown for a loop when their models [hack](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) a partner (one which [NVIDIA may or may not be buying](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-profit-crown-nvidias-hugging-face-deal-hugging-faces-robot-metas-openclaw/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%97%20NVIDIA%27s%20%2412.9B%20Hugging%20Face%20Deal)). And throwing some ice cold water on the blockbuster movie year for Hollywood. Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Inklings #024 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-profit-crown-nvidias-hugging-face-deal-hugging-faces-robot-metas-openclaw/ Last updated: 2026-08-29T15:31:43.000Z Tim Cook's watch over Apple officially ends this coming Tuesday. And while I'm [no OneRepublic](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-ceos-farewell-tributes-unusually-personal-tim-cook?ref=spyglass.org), I will just commend and congratulate him on one hell of a run. He had perhaps the most [impossible](https://techcrunch.com/2011/10/28/what-would-steve-do/?ref=spyglass.org) task [imaginable](https://techcrunch.com/2011/01/17/steve-jobs-apple-tim-cook-2011/?ref=spyglass.org) in [succeeding](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/26/one-more-thing/?ref=spyglass.org) Steve Jobs and he [executed](https://techcrunch.com/2013/06/12/mavericks-indeed/?ref=spyglass.org) what will undoubtedly be a new textbook example/case study of [how to follow up](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) a beloved founder/literal savior of a company. And now his watch has ended. ✌️🍎 ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **💰** [**NVIDIA's Regains the Profit Crown**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/technology/nvidia-profit-ai-doubles-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While some [headlines](https://www.theverge.com/tech/985387/nvidia-hundred-billion-dollar-quarterly-revenue?ref=spyglass.org) focused on the company closing in on $100B in revenue a quarter, plenty of companies do that – Walmart is nearly *double* that number, Amazon actually is. A far bigger deal is the $60B in *profit* NVIDIA just posted for the quarter. It has been [bonkers](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/nvidias-43b-profit?ref=spyglass.org) for a while now, but it keeps getting [more bonkers](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/). And while Samsung briefly [surged ahead](https://spyglass.org/samsung-profit/) last quarter due to the memory chip boom, these results puts NVIDIA back on top. And it's almost entirely *actual* profit, money NVIDIA gets to keep, [not the silly](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2092717900159127686?ref=spyglass.org) (GAAP) net income figure which includes moment-in-time [paper gains on investments](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) – accounting which pushed Google's "profit" to a comically stated *$112.2B* last quarter. Their actual profit? Again, the money they keep? Closer to $30B. Roughly half of what NVIDIA just took home. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/technology/nvidia-profit-ai-doubles-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🤗** [**NVIDIA's $12.9B Hugging Face Deal**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-agrees-buy-open-source-model-repository-hugging-face-12-9-billion?ref=spyglass.org) **–** [Poolside](https://spyglass.org/inklings-newfangled-hackquisitions-epic-v-apple-meta-v-states-openai-v-apple-stripe-of-ai-vision-pro-pickle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20Yet%20Another%20New%20Flavor%20of%20Hackquisition). [Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-nvidia-perplexity-fables-stalled-growth/). And now this. If you wanted a hint of how much profit NVIDIA was about to post, these deals – even if just rumored – were a good sign. I joked that NVIDIA clearly can't spend their cash quickly enough, but also, they *clearly* can't. Between [bankrolling](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidias-279-billion-supply-chain-gamble-cbe316d2?ref=spyglass.org) and [backstopping](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) data centers and [investing](https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-q2-2027-earnings-bets-big-ai-18-billion-investment-2026-8?ref=spyglass.org) in [seemingly every](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) company even tangentially related to AI at the moment, NVIDIA is essentially a bank. Yes, so was Cisco back in the day, but I digress... This particular deal actually makes quite a bit of strategic sense. I'm not sure the price does but again, does that really matter when you're making $60B in profit a quarter? Not if there was competition for the deal and you could keep it out of the hands of others to further [your "open" AI narrative](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) – not to be confused with OpenAI, which is also tied [closely](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) to NVIDIA, but is not open, and seems hell-bent on [competing](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) with NVIDIA in chips with the [apparently quite spicy 'Jalapeno'](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/openai-jalapeno-better-than-nvidia?ref=spyglass.org). Or maybe you better know them as the company [which just](https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead/?ref=spyglass.org) [inadvertently hacked](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/)... Hugging Face. Wild times. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-agrees-buy-open-source-model-repository-hugging-face-12-9-billion?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🦆** [**Hugging Face's $400 Duck Robot**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-27/hugging-face-unveils-400-singing-skating-duck-like-robot?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Speaking of... while I don't think the 'Microduck' is contributing much to the $13B price tag here, it's also pretty fun and clever! Given the focus on robotics as a next logical extension of AI, I'm surprised nearly everyone seems focused on either the [humanoid](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%BE%20All%20Hands%20on%20Deck%20for%20Optimus) or warehouse variety. Why not just have a little fun while igniting some imaginations? Clearly they are [over in Asia](https://spyglass.org/we-will-be-replaced/), and Amazon tried this to some extent – but [as always](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/), they were too early – but I bet there's a growing market in the US now too for people [who want](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/07/15/gurman-io-product?ref=spyglass.org) a *Star Wars* droid-like device, not an Ultron or Terminator-like robot – [at least not yet](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=%5BTHR%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22My%20prediction%20is). Especially [as voice AI](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) keeps [leaping forward](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/). Start [small and fun](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/). What's the old saying about big things that start out [looking like toys](https://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/?ref=spyglass.org)? What if they *actually* start out looking like toys? Apple [should be](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) all [over this](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/). If for no other reason than it now seems like their [longtime nemesis](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) NVIDIA will be! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-27/hugging-face-unveils-400-singing-skating-duck-like-robot?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🐣** [**Meta's 'OpenClaw for Normies' Nears**](https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-hatch-personal-ai-agent-capabilities-employees-memo-2026-8?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I [mentioned](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-context-watermelon-hatch/) 'Project Hatch' earlier today as Meta's big bet on productizing AI for consumers. AI "Personal Assistants" are so hot right now – [at least in the eyes of VCs](https://www.newcomer.co/p/amid-personal-assistant-investor?ref=spyglass.org), which, speaking from personal experience, at best doesn't mean much and at worst is *negative* signal. Everyone [obviously wants](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) agentic AI to work [in consumer](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/), but we need actual killer use cases beyond sorting your desktop icons or drafting email responses. Again, I would focus more on fun. What can these things do that is actually a delightful experience? Sure, easing the nightmare of booking travel sounds great, but, at least in my experience, that's also incredibly bespoke given various family requirements. Which is to say, I'm honestly not sure I'd ever trust AI to do that, even if it could. I realize that's a dangerous thing to say, but really I just want some obvious use cases for regular people and I have yet to hear any. [Meta can shove](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%9E%20Meta%20Hatches%20an%20OpenClaw%20Competitor) this in front of 3 billion people, but without those use cases, [it won't matter](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/). Certainly if Meta is really going to *charge money* for [this](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/). Though I will say, being able to [leverage WhatsApp](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-plans-launch-hatch-ai-agent-platform-coming-weeks?ref=spyglass.org) as the potential UI here is interesting... Perhaps that's the real play for 'XChat' – [Xitter's superflous chat app](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%40mingchikuo%5D-,%F0%9F%92%AC%20XChat,-%E2%80%93%20While%20I). Maybe it can be the Grok Bot interface? They just need to gain about 3 billion users first. **\[**[**BI**](https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-hatch-personal-ai-agent-capabilities-employees-memo-2026-8?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... 🔗 Meta's Poke on the Wrist • Spyglass 🔗 So Much For the 'PervPods' • Spyglass 🔗 Meta’s Complicated AI Context • Spyglass ### I Quote... > "I’m very pro-A.I. in music creation. I don’t see the downside at all. There will be some crappy music. There’s crappy music now." – **Jimmy Iovine**, [with his assessment](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/23/business/jimmy-iovine-dr-dre-beats-usc.html?ref=spyglass.org) of the AI [backlash](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/). At which point in the interview, **Dr. Dre** enters the room to drop: *"I don’t see it as a threat. I think the only people that see it as a threat are the people who have trouble creating."* ### Thoughts On... 🔗 NVIDIA & Perplexity • Fable’s Stalled Growth • Spyglass 🔗 Bill Gates, Doomer • The Mac Mini Morphs • Spyglass ### Asides... - Was '**Ox Alpha**' made by Google's big AI [comeback](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/)? SpaceXAI [taking the lead](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/)? A surprise new entrant? No, it was just the codename for **Z.ai's 'GLM-5.3-Flash'**. Which anyone who watches movies in China would have known? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-26/china-s-z-ai-made-ox-alpha-stealth-model-that-rivals-deepseek?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - I mean, '**Claudeforce**' is better [than 'Agentforce'](https://spyglass.org/whopper-of-a-week/#:~:text=And%20I%20Quote,the%20phrase%20%22Agentforce%22.), only just. But hey, [McConaughey](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZMj7C41AuQ&ref=spyglass.org)! "Now you can just aaaasssk." (This is honestly a pretty good ad – kudos to **Salesforce** for the confidence to outsource the "UI for AI" to **Anthropic**!) **\[**[**VentureBeat**](https://venturebeat.com/orchestration/salesforce-just-put-its-entire-crm-inside-claude-and-says-youll-never-need-its-app-again?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - A **resume** that looks like Google -> OpenAI -> Thinking Machines -> OpenAI -> Google is just perfect in an age of circular AI concerns. [Weirdness aside](https://spyglass.org/thought-machine-lab/), just a generational run by **Barret Zoph**. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/thinking-machines-lab-co-founder-barret-zoph-joins-google-49f594e6?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Meanwhile, Google ->OpenAI -> Thinking Machines -> OpenAI -> Meta – **Luke Metz** with the zag there at the end! **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2026/08/24/meta-hires-openai-luke-metz?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Cleanup of ice on aisle Hell, as **Apple Pay** comes to **Walmart**! **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/983336/walmart-apple-google-pay-launch?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Come for the news that **Ridley Scott** is at work on completing the '[David](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David%5F8?ref=spyglass.org)' ***Alien*** prequel trilogy (!!), stay for the quotes on AI. **\[**[**LATimes**](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2026-08-26/ridley-scott-director-dog-stars-alien-blade-runner-gladiator-artificial-intelligence-ai?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - And then there were six? (Actors supposedly in the final states of screen testing [to be](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) [the next](https://spyglass.org/back-to-basics-bond/) ***James Bond***. With my [original](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1055682957157920769?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) [picks](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1457094316468289540?ref=spyglass.org) [apparently](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) out, I'm pulling for [River Cartwright](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack%5FLowden?ref=spyglass.org) – you-know-who was also Scottish...) **\[**[**Page Six**](https://pagesix.com/2026/08/26/hollywood/unknown-actor-is-shock-favorite-to-be-new-james-bond-with-string-of-a-listers-set-for-screen-tests-in-days/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... Ah yes, [billboards that look like disclaimers](https://www.theverge.com/tech/985851/meta-privacy-loophole-fix-marketing-campaign?ref=spyglass.org) are really going to resonate with people. Especially the intended audience. Nothing to *see* here, why do you ask? At least they double as an eye chart, I guess? This is [not](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) [trending](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) [well](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) [for Meta](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/)... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/Capture-LED-Education-Campaign-Los-Angeles-Billboard.webp)](https://www.theverge.com/tech/985851/meta-privacy-loophole-fix-marketing-campaign?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"Release" by Pearl Jam**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA3TXNwiCvQ&ref=spyglass.org) **(**[****happy 35th to** ***Ten**](https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/2092932715288932853?ref=spyglass.org)****)** 🍺 Enjoying a [****Meantime Pizza Pale**](https://untappd.com/b/meantime-brewing-company-pizza-pale/4514360?ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### Meta’s Complicated AI Context URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-context-watermelon-hatch/ Last updated: 2026-08-28T11:41:53.000Z 🔗 Mark Zuckerberg is Buying Meta a Seat at the AI Table. Does He Know What to Do With It? • Fast Company There's a lot of positive buzz around Meta's AI efforts at the moment – if nothing else, it's impressive the *speed* at which they've zoomed back at least [*near* the frontier](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/). Can the forthcoming 'Watermelon' model fully get them there? Or set some kind of new mark? We should see soon enough, but more important for Meta will be creating an actual *product* people want to use AI for. [Will 'Hatch'](https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-hatch-personal-ai-agent-capabilities-employees-memo-2026-8?ref=spyglass.org) be the consumer harness that matters? The "OpenClaw for Normies" that [I've been waiting for](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/)? I remain skeptical simply because of [Meta's recent history](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/). When they can't buy, they've had trouble *building* products that actually resonate of late. It *seemed* like they [found their buy-in here with Manus](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/), but, well, [China had other ideas](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3%20China%20Blocks%20Meta%27s%20Manus%20Deal). So the question in my mind is if they controlled the company long enough to effectively clone the IP before they had to [give it back](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/#:~:text=Meta%27s%20Manus%20shitshow%20continues%2C%20as%20the%20companies%20are%20being%20cleaved%20apart%20%E2%80%93%20appropriately%2C%20with%20firewalls%20put%20in%20place%20%E2%80%93%20as%20the%20buy%2Dback%20talks%20continue.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)? Anyway, this dive into Meta's history with AI by Harry McCracken gives some important context for the go-forward story. (And I swear I'm not just saying that because I'm quoted twice in the piece.) Mark Zuckerberg certainly gets credit for some early insight into AI being important back in 2013 when he hired Yann LeCun – but this was also because he had just lost the bidding to buy DeepMind. (And in [pretty embarrassing fashion](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192334503/when-larry-met-demis-at-elons-birthday?ref=spyglass.org), according to [subsequent reporting](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/deepmind-google-demis-hassabis-5bd6de54?ref=spyglass.org).) This directly led to the creation of PyTorch, the open source deep learning library which Meta absolutely does deserve credit for and propelled the entire field forward. But as for the "open" strategy with their actual early Llama models, people forget, but that was decidedly more complicated: > While Zuckerberg was selling the world on headsets and smart glasses, a twist of fate helped propel Meta near the forefront of AI labs—at least for a time. In February 2023, Meta announced a new LLM called Llama (for Large Language Meta AI). At first, it planned to share its creation with academic researchers on a case-by-case basis. But a week later, as the world was still wrapping its mind around the three-month-old ChatGPT, a leaked version showed up on the dark web site 4chan. Suddenly, Llama was available to anyone who could figure out how to download and install it. And anyone who did could modify the code to suit their own purposes. Llama’s unintentional release led to fears of it being misused by bad actors. Some of that played out, including the creation of a Llama-powered Discord bot that spewed hate speech. But there was also excitement about the freely available model’s potential to democratize the spread of useful forms of AI. Meta had been distributing the Llama weights to outside researchers, which is undoubtedly how they leaked, but there was no indication that this was *the actual strategy* for the general public. In fact, when it happened, everyone was scared shitless that Meta has just recklessly endangered the world! That was overblown, of course, and so it (retroactively – though undoubtedly guided by Meta's previous success with opening up some of their core technologies, including the aforementioned PyTorch) became the strategy: > OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google tightly control their primary models. Zuckerberg realized he could drive improvements more quickly by sharing Meta’s work. The prospect rattled other companies. “Paradoxically, the one clear winner in all of this is Meta,” wrote Google engineer Luke Sernau in an internal memo published by SemiAnalysis. “Because the leaked model was theirs, they have effectively garnered an entire planet’s worth of free labor.” Less than five months later, Meta leaned into that advantage. Rather than vetting users, the company simply released Llama 2 to the public as an open-weight model. (AI purists use this term for models such as Llama, whose training data remains proprietary, making them less than fully open source.) Then came Llama 3, which was an even bigger success. Meta seemed to be off to the races with Zuckerberg [talking up "open"](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) models non-stop on [every stage](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/) (and [every podcast](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/)) that he could. Then the record scratch... Instead of cementing Meta (and "open" models) as the leader in AI, Llama 4 was an unmitigated disaster. The [gaming of leaderboards](https://www.theverge.com/meta/645012/meta-llama-4-maverick-benchmarks-gaming?ref=spyglass.org) was a symptom, not the cause. While it was easy to [blame "open"](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/), the reality was that Meta got outflanked by other models [using mixture-of-experts (MoE) techniques](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) to train. That was perhaps the biggest revelation of [the "DeepSeek Moment"](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/), for Meta at least. Well that, and the [notion that distillation](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/) of models can work quite well – *perhaps especially if your model happens to have open weights*.[1](#one) And so ["open" was closed](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/). And Llama was killed. [Scale was "hackquired"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/). And billions were burned (on both [talent](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) and [compute](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/)). Again, the initial results look pretty good. But then came [the "Kimi K3 Moment"](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) mixed with [the "AI Overkill" movement](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/) (and the [Anthropic heel turn](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/), and ongoing OpenAI backlash), and [suddenly "open" was cool again](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/)! As such, [Meta quickly pivoted back](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai-muse-glimmer/) – though [not fully this time](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) – just in a way to try to take advantage of the marketing and framing as they try to [re-establish themselves](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) [externally](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-tokens/) – and re-align themselves *internally*. > Back in 2015, Zuckerberg had proudly told me that his success as a CEO had come from the effort he put into “building a culture where people think about the mission in the same way that I do.” Now that synchronicity seems to be gone, at least for the moment. According to a current MSL staffer, employees in the lab regard Zuckerberg’s “personal superintelligence” talk as sloganeering, not a road map for building useful products. One Silicon Valley insider says the richly compensated AI recruits he knows at the company are “mercenaries,” there “to ride this out for as long as Zuck’s interests hold and take as much money off the table as possible.” Morale among longer-serving staffers, who have seen friends and mentors depart by edict or choice, has cratered, says the MSL employee. "Sloganeering" is a great term. I still think if they nail 'Watermelon' (and can they come up with a better name than 'Muse Spark' for it?) and certainly 'Hatch' these problems will fade away. Success has a funny way of changing perception, fast and clearing up any internal morale issues. We'll see, it's nearly the end of [this particular race](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/)... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta’s Open Weight WhiplashZuck returns to his “open” AI arguments at an opportune time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-79d8dc93-e5fe-4a52-b341-49c3c242ceeb.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-10--2026--09_49_51-PM-fc87bebd-6a03-4f5e-89ca-887809726242.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai-muse-glimmer/) [Meta Sets the Table with Table Stakes AI‘Muse Spark’ sparks the stock, but mainly through imagination…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-43f18a6e-17b3-4ceb-bf2a-f3227b8188fb.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--07_24_49-PM-1-9d04a675-934d-4f77-baab-076ace71c942.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) [Meta Keeps MissingEncryption? No. Crypto? No. VR? No. Open models? No. AI? Not so far. Agents? Nothing yet. AR? We’ll see…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-f3e18459-1e08-4884-a13d-9824772df027.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-23--2026--07_50_55-PM-1c09abed-4026-47ff-ba00-22477d18d09b.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) --- 1 Models which many other Big Tech companies were also [happy to use, but not pay for](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/), which was obviously an issue for Meta as well given the costs. [It's almost like they needed a cloud...](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) [↩](#) ### Meta's Poke on the Wrist URL: https://spyglass.org/metas-poke-on-the-wrist/ Last updated: 2026-08-31T10:47:40.000Z 🔗 Meta to Pay Up to $17.1 Billion in Landmark Settlement Over Social Media Addiction Claims • NYT On one level, it's [just math](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2092598229783216192?ref=spyglass.org). $17.1 billion is less than $200 billion (the amount the states [were seeking](https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-reaches-18-billion-settlement-with-48-states-over-child-safety-claims-cf725a2b?ref=spyglass.org) in damages). And certainly less than *$1.4 trillion* (the amount [Meta claimed](https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-says-us-states-are-seeking-14-trillion-penalties-august-youth-safety-trial-2026-07-07/?ref=spyglass.org) they could be on the hook for if they lost such a case – which happens to also be roughly their current market cap). Meta generates $17.1 billion in revenue every 26 days or so. Yes, Meta makes more money in a month than these settlement damages. Also, those damages will be paid out *over a decade*. Also, *also*, they may not even be $17.1 billion, but instead more like $12 billion unless TikTok and YouTube also agree to similar settlements including damages and product changes! Oh and need I mention that Meta's market cap jumped *about $50 billion* on the news of the settlement?[1](#one) So yeah, this is one of those losses that seems like a win. Yes, yes, technically it wasn't a loss at all, just a settlement without admitting any wrongdoing. But come on. Unlike the ([pointless](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/)) antitrust case against Meta, which they rode through to the ([easy](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/)) victory in the end, the company clearly read the writing on the Facebook Wall here. Money aside, optically, this was doing yet more damage to Meta's brand and reputation. Every story every day was equating their products to [the new tobacco](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/). And Mark Zuckerberg was about to have to take the stand. The media frenzy would have turned into *Shark Week*, with Zuck as the chum. Oh would you look at that, [a new trailer for *The Social Reckoning*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfHEZw7Xw%5Fc&ref=spyglass.org) just dropped. What an inconvenient coincidence! So yeah, the settlement was [a no-brainer](https://spyglass.org/inklings-newfangled-hackquisitions-epic-v-apple-meta-v-states-openai-v-apple-stripe-of-ai-vision-pro-pickle/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Meta%27s%20Make%20Or%20Break%20Trial). To the point where I'm honestly shocked the states agreed to it. Yes, $17 billion seems like a massive headline amount of money, and the payouts to each state ranging from hundreds of millions to billions (depending on population) will be meaningful to their budgets. But it's simply not a meaningful amount of money to Meta. Far more interesting are the product changes that Meta is promising alongside the settlement. "Night Mode" and "School Mode" implemented at a service-level sound fine on paper, but in practice, are they actually going to work? A big part of the abbreviated trial was all about how such tools don't really work. Yes, the default positions will help, but how hard will it be for little Timmy to ask a parent to click this thing for them while they're busy on a million other things?[2](#two) Even more interesting is Meta's jiu-jitsu maneuver to turn this whole thing *against their main rivals*. The states will all now obviously be heavily incentivized to go after each of them to maximize their payouts. Meanwhile, Meta gets to frame themselves as the leader in teen safety here. [As Casey Newton writes in *Platformer*](https://www.platformer.news/meta-child-safety-settlement-instagram-facebook-youtube-tiktok?ref=spyglass.org): > Whether American teenagers should be harassed after 10 p.m. by engagement-baiting push notifications ought to be a matter for Congress, not the social media cartel. But with characteristic gall, Meta is seeking to position its game of prisoner’s dilemma with YouTube and TikTok as moral leadership. The wolves are leading the call to stop other animals from attacking the henhouse! With an ["open letter"](https://about.fb.com/news/2026/08/open-letter-to-tiktok-and-youtube-to-join-us-in-supporting-teens/?ref=platformer.news) running in [national newspapers](https://x.com/MikeIsaac/status/2092638560591720860?ref=spyglass.org)! This is [some real Don Draper-level shit](https://x.com/arpitrage/status/2092725566864568327?ref=spyglass.org). Anthropic, [eat your heart out](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/).[3](#three) Naturally, such moral leadership only applies to the US, [it seems](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-27/meta-s-teen-safeguards-on-facebook-instagram-apply-only-to-us?ref=spyglass.org). So Meta can get back to work with the money printer largely intact. And this matters as that money [needs to flow](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) directly into [their AI buildout](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/). And potential damages aside, had Meta lost this case, it would have undoubtedly further spooked investors away from [helping Meta to fund](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) that buildout. Yet risks remain, [as Jyoti Mann and Aaron Holmes of *The Information* point out](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/metas-settlement-ends-one-big-battle-wider-legal-war-looms?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > But unlike the big tobacco settlement, which effectively shielded firms from most future lawsuits by states and individuals, Wednesday’s agreement doesn’t resolve the thousands of open lawsuits brought against Meta by consumers, school districts and other parties. Also unlike individual lawsuits against tobacco firms, which didn’t ultimately succeed, individual lawsuits against Meta [have already resulted in verdicts that found Meta liable](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/meta-youtube-found-liable-landmark-social-media-addiction-case?rc=geicgp&ref=spyglass.org). At the same time, it also doesn't set any sort of precedent for other cases. That's certainly another reason to settle (if you think there's even a chance you're going to lose). As is this from the same piece: > However, the agreement includes a provision that it shouldn’t be cited against the company in other cases, noted Eric Goldman, associate dean for research and professor of law at Santa Clara University School of Law. That avoids giving plaintiffs in Meta’s other lawsuits a straightforward argument that the company has already acknowledged the allegations against it. And so Meta walks away with what looks like a [poke](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List%5Fof%5FFacebook%5Ffeatures?ref=spyglass.org#Poke) on the wrist. For now... > Not exactly the same, but some parallels here [pic.twitter.com/5YGWHexCuw](https://t.co/5YGWHexCuw?ref=spyglass.org) > > — Arpit Gupta (@arpitrage) [August 26, 2026](https://x.com/arpitrage/status/2092725566864568327?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=spyglass.org) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Big TechbaccoThe growing risk that these companies are viewed as a cancer…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4b65ff54-90fb-4b63-9491-1d02eb62d3a9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4e72b216-6792-4ec9-97b0-01144b5576f3-1-0300afd3-1c13-485b-a80c-57e7ffc8acdb.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/) [The Meta Points of Meta’s TrialThe FTC’s weak case collides with Meta’s miscalculations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4f905656-db73-4ccb-b372-7e00a66150fe.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_antitrust_case_trial_in_the_style_of_anime_male_defe_397e64f6-1df7-4876-bf8a-a1809bcabc3b_0-4bb354bb-bc51-4ca6-b674-b603e2329cb5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) [Judge Rules FTC Wasted Everyone’s Time with Meta CaseHighlighting how Big Tech antitrust is broken in our current era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-2e8ec0a2-ed81-4680-86a9-f2f6f874a74f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-19--2025--12_48_29-PM-2-88511285-32d8-42c8-b7d7-6628194d6615.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) --- 1 Though yes, it came back down after a down day for the market – but still ended the day up $15B. Pretty close to the settlement amount! [↩](#) 2 To the US-only point, how much do you want to bet that there will be some VPN workaround? Too complicted for kids? Come on. What about changing the time on the device? You laugh now... [↩](#) 3 But really, how long until the AI companies use [a similar playbook](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/)? [↩](#) ### Bill Gates, Doomer • The Mac Mini Morphs URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-bill-gates-doomer-the-mac-mini-morphs/ Last updated: 2026-09-02T13:22:43.000Z Uh, Bill Gates sounds a lot like... [Dario Amodei](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) in writing up his thoughts on where he thinks the world is headed with regard to AI. It's a good essay, worth the read, but it's certainly not going to help the [AI perception problems](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/)! (And it's also worth wondering why he is weighing in right now...) Also, the Mac mini lives! But not the version you remember. It has been reborn as Apple's [AI PC](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/). Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Begun, the Bundle Wars Have URL: https://spyglass.org/streaming-bundle-wars/ Last updated: 2026-08-26T16:27:45.000Z The streaming wars are over. Netflix won. Actually, [YouTube may have won](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) without anyone really realizing it [until it was too late](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) thanks largely to [the guise of "UGC"](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/). Regardless, that battle is over. We've shifted into a new phase. And in a twist that will shock absolutely no one, it's the re-bundling of content after all the streamers worked so hard, and spent billions upon billions to unbundle it. It's the early days of this new fight, so there's seemingly not much action yet. But I think we saw the opening salvo a few weeks back in the form of [YouTube's deal to add Peacock to their Premium offering](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/). To me, that was a shot over the bow of Netflix. A sort of "we're escalating – and not just with [UGC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User-generated%5Fcontent?ref=spyglass.org)". Of course, Netflix must have seen this coming because it was a long time coming – ever since [last year when Netflix teamed up with Spotify](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) around video podcasts to wade into UGC for the first time. Since then, they've kept cutting deals left and right with YouTube talent to bring their content to Netflix. They may not be trying to [become YouTube outright](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) – that would be impossible at this point and scale – but they also know they need to play the game on the field, to switch analogies. Again, YouTube sort of snuck up and stole home field advantage. As such, they now set the rules, by which Netflix must play. Anyway, it's a game now, but it's [about to be a war](https://spyglass.org/youtube-and-netflix-creator-war/). And while it's bigger than just Netflix and YouTube, those are also clearly the two main combatants at the moment. Amazon, Apple, Disney and maybe a couple others will try to fight their way in – good luck, guys – but the prize is clear: to be the main UI for all content. *The New York Times* wrote up this brewing battle yesterday with a piece by John Koblin entitled, "[The Biggest Dogs in Streaming Want You to Use Only Their App](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/business/media/amazon-youtube-netflix-streaming-platform.html?ref=spyglass.org)". As he writes: > The push underscores the competitive reality for the titans of streaming television. Companies that were once laser-focused on gaining new subscribers are now far more concerned with keeping those people watching as much as possible, and canceling as little as possible. The result is that the streaming wars of a few years ago have morphed into the bundling wars of today. The biggest streaming firms are no longer content to just have the most subscribers. They also want to be the main entry point to everything streaming has to offer.“The thing that matters is that when you turn on the TV, what app are you opening for the next three hours?” said Jonathan Carson, the chief executive of Antenna, a subscription research firm. > > Consumers are already showing enthusiasm for using one platform to manage their streaming subscriptions. Over the last three years, subscriptions made via third-party platforms like Amazon, Roku or YouTube have grown roughly 60 percent, according to Antenna. About a third of all new subscriptions are now purchased this way. Koblin frames Amazon as the "runaway leader" pointing back to [his piece on Prime Video 'Channels'](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/business/media/streaming-tv-subscription-bundle.html?ref=spyglass.org) from a year ago. And it's true that they were the pioneer and now leader with that strategy – letting you buy other subscriptions through their service. But I also can't help but wonder if they weren't too early here – [which wouldn't be the first time for Amazon](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) – and that while the strategy seems sound for now, with many trying to copy it, if the landscape shifts, even if just in subtle ways, it may tilt towards YouTube and Netflix. Again, I think YouTube's Peacock deal may signal this shift. It's not an upsell, it's included. I still sort of can't believe Comcast agreed to this, but it also speaks to YouTube's power – and Peacock's position in the market. Comcast needed to find a partner and/or a home for their laggard streaming service. And they did. And that makes the news that Netflix has also been talking to Peacock about potentially bundling their service even more interesting. Here's Koblin: > Netflix executives recently discussed bringing Peacock and Fox One to Netflix’s streaming service with NBCUniversal and the Fox Corporation, the three people with knowledge of the discussions said. They added that there was no imminent deal to be announced, and that it was not yet clear whether Netflix would absorb the content into its own service, as in the YouTube-Peacock deal, or act more as a retailer in the mold of Amazon Prime Video. > > But any move in that direction is a departure from what Netflix said just two years ago, when the company told shareholders that it “already operates as a go-to destination for entertainment.” But actually, this Peacock news isn't new – [*The Wall Street Journal's* Jessica Toonkel and Ben Fritz reported on it almost two months ago](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/netflix-is-exploring-live-tv-and-bundles-as-it-struggles-to-keep-viewers-hooked-e1eb28f6?st=3G7xPB&ref=spyglass.org). What changed since then is that YouTube/Peacock deal. [As I wrote](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/) when that news came out: > All of this is clearly [not great news for Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/). Not only were they [said to be](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/netflix-is-exploring-live-tv-and-bundles-as-it-struggles-to-keep-viewers-hooked-e1eb28f6?st=3G7xPB&ref=spyglass.org) exploring a Peacock add-on option – which still could happen, again presumably as a "Channel" within Netflix as a way for Comcast to continue to hedge – but the bigger issue is that this seemingly vaults YouTube into pole position as [the default UI for streaming](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/). It felt a bit like the YouTube/Peacock deal was also a way to *stop* Netflix from striking their own partnership. This new report might suggest that such conversations are still ongoing, or simply that they happened (which, again, we already knew). That was my big question around that news: > The biggest question remains how the actual deal is structured. Beyond direct monetization of their content on YouTube, presumably there's a broader revenue share in place too. The bigger question is if there was some sort of up front, lump-sum payment, or ongoing licensing payments. That feels likely, but we'll see. And if so, that may give some level of exclusivity to YouTube? Maybe Comcast can keep their [existing partnerships](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%F0%9F%A6%9A%20Apple%20TV%20%2B%20Peacock) in place as long as they're more of the aforementioned "Channels" or straightforward [bundle variety](https://spyglass.org/streamsaver/)? Maybe YouTube would even prefer that lest they draw the eye of regulators here. But this type of deep integration may be exclusive to YouTube? Again, that last bit is key. There's a world in which Peacock keeps doing their 'Channels' distribution deals [with others](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%F0%9F%A6%9A%20Apple%20TV%20%2B%20Peacock), but the fully integrated approach is exclusive to YouTube. Or even if such a thing isn't in the contract, maybe Comcast decides they're only going to try it with YouTube for now, to see how it goes? On the surface, it seems like a small distinction: both models allow you to access the other content in the main service. But baking it in, fully integrated and "native" without the need for an up-sell, could be the type of UI/UX that wins the day. First and foremost because all the 'Channels' model really does is shift our [endless streaming payments](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) and [options](https://spyglass.org/disney-streaming-bundle/) to one provider – but you're still going to be paying an insane amount of money if you opt-in to all the options. Sure, it's a better experience than having to manage 20 different streaming services separately, but it's not as nice as what YouTube and Peacock are offering here. And actually, that deal sounds more akin to the one [Netflix struck with TF1](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/). That is, bringing the French cable giant's content *natively* into Netflix. The end result is apparently pretty great. [And working](https://spyglass.org/inklings-hackquisitions-revisited-amazon-kills-the-openai-movie-netflix-is-tv-snap-spins-off-ai-trump-mocks-his-big-tech-sycophants/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BA%20Netflix%20as%20the%20New%20Cable%20TV%20Front%2DEnd), to the point where TF1 is praising the partnership in their earnings calls. Last December, as Netflix was still battling to buy Warner Bros, [I outlined what I thought was their "grand unification strategy"](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) – basically: how they would eventually take the TF1 model and pair that with baking HBO content into Netflix as a more premium offering to lure others into such partnerships, thus creating the "one UI to rule them all". [A "Super App"](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) for streaming, if you will. Some content fully integrated, some upsold – undoubtedly at a nice discount thanks to the magic of bundle economics. Well, the Warner deal [didn't happen](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/). Still, I noted at the time that even if it fell apart, I suspected Netflix would run the same playbook, but that it would just take longer. And here we are. But again, now YouTube may be on the ground mucking up their strategy, by beating them to it. And that's why, even if this YouTube/Peacock deal isn't exclusive, I suspect we'll start to see some exclusive deals cut. And yes, undoubtedly some acquisitions. Things like Lionsgate. Maybe AMC. Perhaps eventually [Peacock and/or NBCUniversal in an *actual* acquisition](https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/). Both Netflix and YouTube will be looking to bulk up for battle. Again, Amazon may feel bulked up given their position and first-mover advantage with 'Channels' – [not to mention MGM](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) – but I still think the ground is shifting. Maybe [sports](https://spyglass.org/amazon-sports-rsn/) can [propel](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) them, but [everyone else](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) is [playing there too](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/). Various parties will start to align (or be aligned) around those perceived to be the likely winners. It's sort of wild that Apple isn't one of them. Yes, Apple TV – [the artist formerly known as Apple TV+](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) – is good, but small. [It really is the HBO of old](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/). That's nice, but also sort of quaint in the world we're headed for. They had their iPod in the form of Apple TV – the box, not the aforementioned streaming service – but it was always at least two times too expensive to win the actual market.[1](#one) That was obvious, yet they seemed disinterested. The box never really graduated from the "hobby" that Steve Jobs introduced (alongside the iPhone) all those years ago. Perhaps that's because Jobs himself was trying to be the one [to "crack" the market](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/). And as he told his biographer shortly before his death, *he thought he had*. But then he passed away and the project seemed to fade away. And we're all perhaps paying the price – [quite literally](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) – right now in the form of a couple dozen different streaming services, hunting and pecking around UIs to find what we want to watch. Meanwhile, the cheap Roku boxes won the day. And now the FAST services are entering the fray to beam [ads back into our eyeballs](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/) with a vengeance.[2](#two) It's [depressing](https://spyglass.org/roku-adds-ads/). Apple should have been focused on [running the old iTunes playbook](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) here, to unify the messy streaming world with [a great UI](https://spyglass.org/apple-touch-television/) and wonderful consumer experience – and while they [seemingly tried](https://500ish.com/apple-the-bundler-c0402545b88e?ref=spyglass.org), perhaps [a few times](https://500ish.com/backing-into-television-eb7308de9bc6?ref=spyglass.org), it was half-hearted at best. And they let, who else, [Netflix block them](https://spyglass.org/netflix-apple-tv/) every step [of the way](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/). The content players needed to learn their lessons the hard way. Not exactly like the music industry before them [with piracy](https://500ish.com/the-pirates-strike-back-cd9081466879?ref=spyglass.org), but instead by slowly bleeding out as they spent billions trying to compete with Netflix.[3](#three) And here we are. But again, [without Apple in a strategic position](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) to do much about it. And so it falls to Netflix or YouTube to be the UI through which content will flow. I've been writing about all of this [for years](https://500ish.com/the-new-television-bundle-fa765753719a?ref=spyglass.org) and [years](https://500ish.com/bundles-of-bundles-222978137352?ref=spyglass.org). And it's [playing out](https://500ish.com/big-techs-booming-bundles-25c9ada5eb1b?ref=spyglass.org) almost exactly [as I thought it would](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DcdGjvkiLfQ?ref=spyglass.org) – both the [bleed out](https://500ish.com/let-them-bleed-7bd014e4bb8?ref=spyglass.org) and the fact that Netflix and Amazon would be there, circling the battlefield like vultures. What I didn't see until more recently was YouTube's potential role – and again, that Apple wouldn't really have one, as the de facto aggregator, at least. Of course, they could lunge right back into this race by, say, [buying Disney](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/). Look, I'm not even trying to [spend Tim Cook's money](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) [anymore](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/), it's John Ternus' money now! Maybe he'll have a less tight wallet! There are signs... Disney, of course, is the other elephant in this particular room. They've been busy bundling too – but [mostly](https://spyglass.org/espn-fox-one-sports-bundle/) with [their own content](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-television/), slowly roping Hulu and [now ESPN](https://spyglass.org/espn-everywhere-strategy/) into Disney+ as their new CEO, Josh D'Amaro, also tries to [create that "Super App"](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/). But Disney doesn't quite have the purse strings that the other players do here. They have the best content and IP, which is important leverage, but it feels like they're going to eventually be a player to be bundled, not a bundler. If someone can grab *that* crown jewel... well, it might be the last Infinity Stone needed to win the war. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The battles have just begun in these new Bundle Wars. But now we should look for the pieces to increasingly move quickly. [Sports rights](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/). Content distribution deals. Cable television partnerships. UGC deals. And potentially some major acquisitions in the Paramount/Warner Bros fall out. A great bundling after we just un-bundled. 🎙️ Members of [**The Inner Ring*](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube Faster Than...YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b217e620-3039-4bf8-9c1a-9c5096fa381d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-16--2026--07_40_34-PM-43b0d6e2-7543-45d6-8bbb-550797bfaade.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3152403f-f807-4f87-9d34-0bc399ccff17.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-a348f13a-1ba6-4485-b583-77cda1a55f49.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [YouTube “Hackquires” PeacockA rather brilliant move, perhaps on both sides! Sorry, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-924add01-0cc4-48af-b9f5-96d30b9524a4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-27--2026--11_16_41-PM-7b9f3cd8-d1ca-4401-92c2-c440af22b94f.png)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/) [My Expensive Streaming BundleIt’s less than I thought, but still completely untenable…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-e6f7c982-8743-4bbc-a682-fc5b0d083135.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_broken_tv_surrounded_by_money_--ar_169_--v_7_5514853d-d8ac-4c78-ae58-baf6e99f9f71_1-5561a3ba-0145-4a7d-af15-c281796cbe31.png)](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) [We Don’t Need Another iPod for Streaming TV, We Need An iTunesOne service to rule them all. And in the darkness, bind them.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-38be9f66-82a4-48e0-956f-6139e86dd181.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_watercolor_painting_of_the_streaming_TV_set-top_box_flo_f463a1d0-164e-4220-b037-6fd359b253cd_0-4cfccc1a-7777-41e6-9fc1-4e8b0ff83987.png)](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) --- 1 While you might counter that the iPod was also too expensive relative to the market at the time, the difference is how much better it was relative to that market – and yes, iTunes. Again, that's Apple's failure here, ironically, failing to nail hardware + software. [↩](#) 2 Roku – which, ironically, [started life as a Netflix skunkworks project](https://www.fastcompany.com/3004709/inside-netflixs-project-griffin-forgotten-history-roku-under-reed-hastings?ref=spyglass.org) – is obviously a major player on the 'Channels' side as well, thanks to the aforementioned cheap hardware. But I suspect [the Fox acquisition may change that](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%8A%20Fox%20Gets%20Their%20Own%20Streaming%20Box) in the long run. Also, it feels like the time of the streaming box is ending with this new war. All new TVs have these services baked into their software. [↩](#) 3 Pretty much everyone but Sony, [who smartly opted to partner with Netflix](https://mgs.blog/sony-just-announced-their-streaming-service-its-called-netflix-79ea5b917aae?ref=spyglass.org) instead. Which has [paid off for both sides](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/)! [↩](#) ### NVIDIA & Perplexity • Fable’s Stalled Growth URL: https://spyglass.org/thoughts-on-nvidia-perplexity-fables-stalled-growth/ Last updated: 2026-09-02T13:22:52.000Z Why might NVIDIA want to buy – sorry, "[hackquire](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" – part of Perplexity? And why might Fable's growth be stalling for Anthropic? Read on for thoughts on... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### So Much For the 'PervPods' URL: https://spyglass.org/pervpods/ Last updated: 2026-08-23T14:48:29.000Z 🔗 Camera AirPods Code Reveals Image Capture Resolution, Status Light, Person Detection, and More • MacRumors As if a [leaked video of the AirPods with Cameras](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) – which I wish they'd call '[EyePods](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/)' but I'm guessing they're going to call 'AirPods Pro 4 with Visual Intelligence' – wasn't enough, some leaked code also within the release candidate of macOS Tahoe 26.7 now seems to give away a few more intriguing details about the device. Namely, how the cameras may actually *work*. And actually, this leak could be somewhat *useful* to Apple because the last one – again, the video of them in action – had people concerned that Apple was about to release some surveillance tech for the masses. Which is a nicer way of saying ["PervPods", as the internet has so wonderfully coined](https://thenewthings.com/p/pervpods-and-the-return-of-the-glasshole?utm%5Fsource=thenewthings.com&utm%5Fmedium=newsletter&utm%5Fcampaign=pervpods-and-the-return-of-the-glasshole&%5Fbhlid=1a279c42ef71bd50f4f73e7372c60a87fd2bd7ac&jwt%5Ftoken=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoiZjJkYmZhMmUtNmZlNi00OGNiLThlMTQtNmRmNDkwYjRiMDU0IiwicHVibGljYXRpb25faWQiOiI0OTUxNWE5My03YThkLTRlYTItYTNkYS0xOTgwMTNhNDQ4ODYiLCJhY2Nlc3NfdHlwZSI6InJlYWQtb25seSIsImV4cCI6MTc4NzUwMTIzOCwiaXNzIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9hcHAuYmVlaGlpdi5jb20iLCJpYXQiOjE3ODczMjg0Mzh9.oa3CJw76CR5s%5FsRXbqeSQMxFTNeVwj8j5UTzvpQtNJ0). Apple, of course, prides themselves on their reputation with regard to user trust and security. Two traits which Meta, Apple's [would-be main competitor](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) in the nascent AI wearable space, [decidedly lacks](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/). Was Apple really going to risk throwing away such trust to put some cameras on your ears? This latest leak points to how Apple is clearly trying to get around this issue. As discovered by *MacRumors* forum member [mactracker](https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/macos-26-7-reveals-much-more-about-apples-upcoming-airpods-with-visual-intelligence.2487480/?ref=spyglass.org) and summarized by Tim Hardwick, a few key bits: > **AirPods support periodic image capture but not video:** The cameras take internal still frames for Visual Intelligence to process, rather than "taking pictures" or recording video. In "active" mode, the framework can request a synced pair of images, or it can receive a capture rate, where pairs of stills are continually sent at the specified rate. I repeat: no video. [In my column last week](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) I suspected exactly this scenario. While Apple will downplay the "picture taking" capabilities of such a device, the reality is that they have to capture some sort of image to make their systems work. But video seems a bridge too far, at least for now. > **Active and passive capture modes use different resolutions:** In "active" mode, likely triggered by the user via Siri, the AirPods capture a 640x640 image and return a processed 1024x1024 image. "That's about 0.4 megapixels of sampled image data, and a little over 1 megapixel for the output frame," mactracker explains. In "passive" mode, they capture a 320x320 image that can return a 320×320 or 512×512 output. "These are capture-specific resolutions, and the physical sensor's native resolution may be larger," adds mactracker. 640x640 is a comically small, low-resolution image. Technically, it's 0.41 megapixels. For comparison, the main camera on the iPhone 17 Pro is *48 megapixels*. That's a full two orders of magnitude. Yes, the processing pushes that image to just over one megapixel – a threshold that was [state of the art](https://www.kodak.com/en/company/page/photography-history/?ref=spyglass.org) in... 1991. Interestingly, the "passive" mode cuts such small resolutions in half. Now we're talking early web graphics sizes for images. The kind of images that wouldn't completely clog a 14.4 baud dial-up modem. In other words, if people intend to use these AirPods as surveillance tech, it's going to be pretty shitty surveillance tech. There are literal kids toys that will take far better images. A Fisher-Price spy cam would do an infinitely better job. > **Some processing happens directly on AirPods:** The code mentions "peripheral inference," or on-device detection of whether a person is in view. If true, given the sheer literal size of the AirPods, this would be insanely impressive. But again, those image sizes help! And this will certainly help that privacy narrative if you don't have to send all of those images – even if their comically low resolution state – to your iPhone. Or worse, the cloud. > **Each AirPod likely has a capture indicator light:** The framework contains code that allows it to remotely control a hardware indicator and its brightness, suggesting the AirPods have a light to let other people know when they are capturing still images. Yeah, I also assumed this would be the case, as it's sort of the bare-minimum privacy norm if you have any sort of capture capabilities on a wearable. And this points directly to an issue Apple still could have here... While they'll downplay any talk of "capture" and certainly not frame these as "cameras", the reality remains that – assuming the above capabilities ship – both categorizations are *technically* true. Apple can and will talk up the low-resolution and on-device work, but some people will still just hear and see wearable cameras here. And while I suspect that society will eventually grow numb to such tech, just as we have with cameras capturing/recording most things thanks to our phones, it's going to take some time.[1](#one) In that regard, perhaps it's good that these newfangled AirPods were apparently delayed until 2027 (despite the leak). Apple can let Meta keep taking the early backlash as the industry still [grapples with](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) 'Glasshole' scars. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Versus the GlassholesLeveraging AirPods as their first true AI wearable should help ease Apple into a tricky market…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b7cf4589-5986-41f9-9509-e3a88260ee95.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-18--2026--01_55_06-PM-71bbe7be-acff-4652-9647-a2f852fd2c5b.png)](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) [I Am the Great Glassholio!Things are going well for Ray-Ban Metas... time to meddle!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-5273937f-b01e-47d9-9741-0e3b91788014.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/6f4285ce-c913-49ce-88b6-6b1c1679f3fb-f3596a0b-4d86-4948-b661-abd2b3987086.png)](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) [EyePodsAirPods with cameras aren’t to take pictures, but to let Siri “see”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-54141fa5-83fa-4f99-8966-46ec5b92b1a1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-8--2026--10_54_53-AM-1-6dd7316a-ff1c-4170-8f7a-3181c53529c8.png)](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) --- 1 With the AI element of all this just further exaccerbating the issues... [↩](#) ### Inklings #023 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-newfangled-hackquisitions-epic-v-apple-meta-v-states-openai-v-apple-stripe-of-ai-vision-pro-pickle/ Last updated: 2026-08-29T15:35:04.000Z Did you miss me while I was away? Not that I [wasn't](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) [busy](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) [still](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) [writing](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) [in](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/) [between](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) [planes](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) [and](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) [pools](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/). But I come back bearing gifts. Well, *a gift* – albeit one long requested by many of you... *full RSS feeds for paid members of* [*The Inner Ring*](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/). Yes, over two years in the making – well, more like a few hours, thanks to our AI overlords helping me out – I finally cracked the code. Unfortunately, it still needs a fairly manual deployment at the moment – which is to say, if you're interested and [a paid member](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/account/plans), shoot a note to subs \[at\] spyglass.org. If not, carry on. The current RSS feed will continue to work just fine, albeit truncated. Happy last days of Summer. [And Friday](https://x.com/PatWolf/status/2090756085615415393?ref=spyglass.org). ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💸** [**Yet Another New Flavor of Hackquisition**](https://www.newcomer.co/p/sources-poolside-strikes-6-billion?ref=spyglass.org) **–** NVIDIA is paying $6B to the investors in Poolside for... something. Technically, it sounds like a license to access their "open" model "factory", which sounds a lot like technology created – perhaps after a couple pivots – to be acquired by NVIDIA. After all, Jensen Huang's two favorite words of late are "[open](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/)" and "[factory](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/)". Not on that list is "[acquired](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/)" – this is the word that shall never be [mentioned](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) in [such deals](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/), lest regulators come [calling](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-ftc/). Again, this is just a licensing deal and some job offers – 109 of them, to be exact. But interestingly, unlike most other "[hackquistions](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" to date, this one explicitly *does not* include the founders. In fact, they're staying back with the remaining parts (if any) of the company, and raising $1B from NVIDIA at a new $12B (pre) valuation for their troubles. I mean, *what*?! [What could possibly go wrong](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/)? The only thing that is clear here is that NVIDIA has way too much money on their hands, and they seemingly can't give it away fast enough. **\[**[**Newcomer**](https://www.newcomer.co/p/sources-poolside-strikes-6-billion?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💨** [**Pissing in the Wind**](https://x.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/2090617983983030311?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While I've largely been on the side of Epic's Tim Sweeney over many years now with regard to the App Store rules – and I think I [correctly read](https://500ish.com/apple-won-a-battle-to-lose-the-war-3ce6c3701918?ref=spyglass.org) long ago [the game he seemed to be playing](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/) to [continuously bait Apple](https://spyglass.org/epics-feigning-floundering-to-keep-apple-under-pressure/) – his comments the last few days in light of Apple and the EC [seemingly reaching a detente](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/) over the rules in the EU seem [disingenuous](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/#update) at best and unhinged at worst. This would seem to be some last-ditch effort to keep the EC fighting, but come on, it's over dude. You got some of what you wanted! Distribution outside of the App Store is here and payments on the web are mandated – including, importantly, [in the US](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/), which was [largely you're doing](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/)! It's true that those payments [won't be completely free of charge](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/), and I get that the EC de facto accepting that makes the US case even harder, but come on, this was never going to be some sort of flawless victory. Take the W. [Or sell to Disney](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/). **\[**[**Xitter**](https://x.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/2090617983983030311?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **⚖️** [**Meta's Make Or Break Trial**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/technology/meta-social-media-addiction-trial.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** "[Big Techbacco](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/)" indeed. Unlike with [the silly antitrust case](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) [against Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/), it feels like the stakes can't get much higher for the company here. Four states (representing 25 others) are more or less trying to take down social media (represented by Meta) much as yes, the tobacco companies were once taken down. While $200B is the headline potential damages number here, technically the fines [could reach $1.4T](https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-says-us-states-are-seeking-14-trillion-penalties-august-youth-safety-trial-2026-07-07/?ref=spyglass.org) – which is *exactly* Meta's market cap. So yeah, that feels pretty existential. More importantly, it could completely upend Meta's actual business, [in a time](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) when [they need it](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) to be [pumping out cash](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-tokens/) more than ever so they can [pump it into AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/). While there is an 8-person jury here, they're merely meant to be advisory to the judge who will issue the verdict and award any would-be damages. That judge? Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, whose name may look awfully familiar to anyone who has followed the [Apple/Epic ongoing situation](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) (see: above). Meta should probably hope they don't [piss her off](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) as Apple did! So far, things seem [up](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jul/22/florida-teen-drops-meta-lawsuit?ref=spyglass.org) and [down](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/former-meta-engineer-resumes-testimony-landmark-trial-over-social-medias-harm-2026-08-19/?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/technology/meta-social-media-addiction-trial.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💬** [**OpenAI Keeps Right On Poking the Bear**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/08/20/chatgpt-update-adds-apple-messages-integration-on-mac/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** ChatGPT for Apple Messages support seems [interesting](https://x.com/ChatGPT/status/2090499359641329950?ref=spyglass.org), it also sounds like something Apple will absolutely [*hate*](https://x.com/JoshuaKarchmer/status/2090553110737412606?ref=spyglass.org). Given that this is on the Mac, and the ChatGPT app ([clearly](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/)) isn't distributed through the Mac App Store, I'm not sure what they can actually do here – certainly send some strongly worded messages to OpenAI and perhaps the public about security – while noting that Apple will be happy to do such AI things for you [shortly](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/), with [new Siri](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/) – but if this was an iOS feature, well, such an app would never get approved. Add this to ([allegedly](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/)) threatening to sue Apple, then Apple ([actually](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/)) suing OpenAI, and you have [quite the](https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/) situationship [here](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/08/20/apple-fires-back-openai-bid-toss-lawsuit/?ref=spyglass.org). I'm reminded when Twitter [tried to connect](https://techcrunch.com/2010/06/23/twitter-facebook-friends-linkedin/?ref=spyglass.org) to Facebook's Friend Graph back in the day. That [didn't last long](https://techcrunch.com/2010/06/23/facebook-blocks-twitter/?ref=spyglass.org). Nor did [Instagram images on Twitter](https://techcrunch.com/2012/12/05/kevin-systrom-on-pulling-twitter-cards-integration-we-want-images-viewed-on-instagram-com/?ref=spyglass.org), after the sale. **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/08/20/chatgpt-update-adds-apple-messages-integration-on-mac/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🪙** [**'The Stripe of AI' Joins Stripe**](https://stratechery.com/2026/stripe-acquiring-openrouter-aggregating-ai-flipping-the-business-model/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** With the clear disclosure that I invested in Stripe back in the day so of course I'm biased here, I found Ben Thompson's thoughts on the (then still [rumored](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-16/stripe-nears-deal-to-buy-ai-firm-openrouter-for-over-7-billion?ref=spyglass.org)) OpenRouter deal insightful. This seemingly makes sense on a number of fronts – first and foremost if you consider tokens to be the currency for companies building with AI, [as Patrick Collison clearly does](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-a-payments-giant-is-paying-7-billion-for-the-stripe-of-ai-f5832e54?ref=spyglass.org). But at the highest level, nearly anyone else (who could afford to) buying OpenRouter would ruin, at least in part, their value proposition by destroying the "Switzerland" nature of the product. Stripe just enhances it. **\[**[**Stratechery**](https://stratechery.com/2026/stripe-acquiring-openrouter-aggregating-ai-flipping-the-business-model/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🥒** [**The Vision Pro Pickle**](https://appleinsider.com/articles/26/08/20/layoffs-in-apples-vision-products-group-prove-slow-progress-in-spatial-computing?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Beyond the layoffs within the group – following the defection of their leader to, [where else](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/): OpenAI, [a couple months back](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/apple-s-vision-pro-and-smart-glasses-chief-paul-meade-is-leaving-for-openai?ref=spyglass.org) – it's really pretty wild just how bad Apple's timing was here. I mean, I've been saying this [from the get-go](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/), but that was simply around product/market fit. Arguably worse is the fact that they released their most expensive device (at least from a starting-point perspective) just as the world of component prices were [set to explode](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) due to the AI boom. They couldn't have known that, of course. But also, [maybe they should have](https://spyglass.org/predicting-googles-ai-earthquake/)? In a weird way, Apple is probably *happy* they're not selling too many because the price to manufacture them must have gone up dramatically. And while there was a [price increase](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%20%E2%80%9CUnfortunately%2C%20price%20increases%20are%20unavoidable.%22) ($3,500 is now $3,700), they also can't afford to raise it too much here – again, it was already the most expensive device and clearly wasn't selling in no small part due to that price. Also, can you imagine a world where Apple would prioritize chips and memory for the Vision Pro versus, say, the iPhone, iPad, or Mac? Given the component issues are likely to last into 2027 and beyond, it's [increasingly](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) fair to wonder if the device will *ever* get another refresh (especially with [so much else going on](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/)). Apple will support it as best they can given the numbers, but I'm fairly worried about *true* support here, even if they won't admit it right now. Which is too bad, as it was [*finally*](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-immersive-content/) [coming](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/) [into](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) [its own](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/), [content-wise](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/). **\[**[**AppleInsider**](https://appleinsider.com/articles/26/08/20/layoffs-in-apples-vision-products-group-prove-slow-progress-in-spatial-computing?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... 🔗 Pushing or Pacing or Pulling Back From the AI Frontier? • Spyglass 🔗 YouTube and Netflix Head to War • Spyglass 🔗 By the Power of Streaming • Spyglass 🔗 Apple's EU App Store Armistice • Spyglass ### I Quote... > "If Mark ​makes something a priority, mountains move in months." – **Arturo Bejar**, a former Facebook safety engineer and Instagram consultant, [testifying against Meta](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/former-meta-engineer-resumes-testimony-landmark-trial-over-social-medias-harm-2026-08-19/?ref=spyglass.org) in the opening of the aforementioned trial. Notably, he also testified in the New Mexico case [which Meta lost](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/). ### Asides... - SpaceX's record [$75B IPO](https://www.reuters.com/world/musks-spacex-prices-record-75-billion-ipo-135-share-2026-06-11/?ref=spyglass.org) (which ended up [more like $86.2B](https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2090502760936755577?ref=spyglass.org) raised) should hold for, I don't know, three or four months? Could **Anthropic's IPO** hit $100B? I mean, OpenAI raised $122B in a *private* round. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-20/anthropic-expects-to-match-spacex-s-record-ipo-size-or-top-it?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Meanwhile, Operation Revenue Ramp ([in ways that Anthropic cannot](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/)) is well underway at **OpenAI**, with **AI ads** rolling out in 31 (!) new markets. **\[**[**AdWeek**](https://www.adweek.com/media/openai-is-taking-its-ad-business-to-31-new-european-markets/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Lest they be [left behind](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/) in [the "Super App" race](https://spyglass.org/super-app/), there's now a **Meta AI Mac app**. It's... fine? But unlike, Claude and [now ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/), I think it's native? We'll see how long that lasts as they [inevitably try](https://spyglass.org/super-apps-last-all-summer-long/) to make it more "super". **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/982270/meta-ai-mac-app?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - There's not only a growing backlash against "**smart glasses**" from consumers, even **ICE** is now banning **Meta's** various wares you wear. [Apple needs to](https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/) tread carefully as they [enter this world](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/). And they will. [Meta though](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/)... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/technology/ice-meta-smart-glasses.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It took a **developer** *a day* to [make](https://x.com/Dhananjay%5FTech/status/2090390050181960105?ref=spyglass.org) the **Pixel** '**HiLight**' feature [infinitely more useful](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-hilight-lowlight/) than Google could in months (years?) of development. **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/08/20/google-pixel-11-pro-hilight-third-party-control-feature/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **BlackBerry** – yes, [*that one*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackBerry?ref=spyglass.org) – is back! Positive cash flow for the first time in almost a decade, *which was just after they stopped selling phones*! Now they're all about QNX and Secusmart – two deals done in the 2010s. Sure, they're a shadow of what they once were, but still, it's wild that both they and Nokia figured out and forged completely new paths. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/a026e094-7017-4ff8-8344-213573e973ed?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - I missed this from a couple weeks back, but **Sam Neil's** last film will apparently [be](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/168483112/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) [next year's](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/a-wwdc-trapped-in-frozen-liquid?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=165688295&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=Not%20all%20good%20news%20out%20of%20Nintendo%20though%2C%20as%20The%20Legend%20of%20Zelda%20movie%20has%20been%20pushed%20back%2C%20but%20oddly%2C%20just%20by%20a%20few%20weeks%3A%20from%20March%202027%20to%20May%202027.%20Presumably%20they%E2%80%99re%20still%20writing%20it%3F%20Don%E2%80%99t%20want%20to%20miss%20this%20current%20nostalgia%20wave%2C%20Nintendo%E2%80%A6%20%5BTHR%5D)... ***The Legend of Zelda!*** **\[**[**Deadline**](https://deadline.com/2026/08/legend-of-zelda-sam-neill-yvonne-strahovski-dichen-lachman-1237027957/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... I saved [this chart](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/business/apple-nvidia-tesla-spacex-stock-market-winners.html?ref=spyglass.org) a couple months ago, and it remains wild. The top 20 companies in terms of wealth creation over the past century in the stock market are... completely dominated by tech companies. Perhaps not too surprising given the state of the world right now. *But this is since 1926*! Even crazier, as recently as 2016, Exxon still topped the list. Now they're all the way down at #7, with Apple having more than 3x'd them in that regard. Apple and Exxon – remember when that [was a race](https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/18/id-shut-it-down-and-give-money-back-to-investors/?ref=spyglass.org)? [I do](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/09/apple-exxon-valuable-company/?ref=spyglass.org)! NVIDIA only went public in 1999 and is #2\. Again of all public companies over the past 100 years. To highlight just how bonkers the recent run-up has been, SpaceX, which went public *a whole two months ago*, was briefly in the top 30 (before the slide post IPO pop). [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/Screenshot-2026-08-21-at-5.27.30---PM.png)](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/business/apple-nvidia-tesla-spacex-stock-market-winners.html?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****Doors (Live) by Noah Kahan**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fV131bQhhxY&list=RDfV131bQhhxY&start%5Fradio=1&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Time Better Spent IPA**](https://www.tapsocialmovement.com/products/time-better-spent-juicy-ipa?srsltid=AfmBOooU1WJNhd7vJlRwCofnVrgrTW2V4FU%5FfIOHUPJUtgrJBJlY9bFU&ref=spyglass.org) **by Tap Social** 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### By the Power of Streaming URL: https://spyglass.org/masters-of-the-universe-streaming-success/ Last updated: 2026-08-21T12:50:46.000Z 🔗 'Masters of the Universe' Powers to No. 1 Debut • THR He-Man has the power! Well, on streaming at least. After ([rather predictably](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org)) bombing at the box office, Amazon smartly, quickly, pivoted *Masters of the Universe* to Prime Video and by the power of Grayskull... As Rick Porter (Ri-Porter?) reports: > The movie based on the 1980s cartoon series and toys scored the No. 1 overall ranking in Nielsen’s [streaming ratings](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/streaming-ratings/?ref=spyglass.org) for July 20-26, its first week of streaming. It debuted July 22 on Prime Video, less than weeks after its theatrical premiere; it has made a little under $114 million worldwide at the box office against a $170 million budget. *Masters of the Universe* scored 1.17 billion minutes of watch time for the week and was one of just two titles to cross the billion-minute threshold. Let's not get [too carried away](https://x.com/Lucas%5FShaw/status/2090580195518587267?ref=spyglass.org), it barely beat *The Big Bang Theory*, content which is – checks notes – **nearly two decades old**. Still, that's a show with *281 episodes* versus a single movie (I'm still not sure why they bother comparing such things, which is insanely unfair to movies, but I guess time glued to screen is time glued). Anyway, if the movie can hold well on streaming, it will be interesting if Amazon moves forward with the sequel, which – quasi-spoiler[1](#one) – they obviously aimed to do given the tease at the end. There had been [some talk](https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2026/06/19/masters-of-the-universe-set-for-sequel-despite-dismal-box-office/?ref=spyglass.org) that they would despite the box office disappointment, and I think that's perhaps a promising sign that Amazon [understands](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/) that box office is increasingly just one element of how this can work. To be clear, they would have *loved* a big box office here, but they've also [run this playbook before](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/), salvaging big budget "bombs" on streaming. The key is to move relatively quickly, as Amazon did, going to Prime Video just six weeks after the opening – notably, skipping any SVOD window. This is smart. You can take advantage of/recoup some of the theatrical [marketing](https://x.com/MattBelloni/status/2090548280040255565?ref=spyglass.org), which is a trick Netflix has [stubbornly refused to learn](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) with their [anti-theater](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) stance – but that's [obviously](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) changing [too](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/). Yes, [even](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/) post-Warner Bros deal [blowing up](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/). It helps that *Masters of the Universe* was decent. Not great, but not awful. Not as good as *Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves* – seriously! – was, but in a similar tongue-firmly-in-cheek vein. The fact that it *looked* a little too *Thor*\-y,[2](#two) but with worse CGI didn't help. But it seemed to find some footing as it went on. So yeah, definitely watchable in a [nostalgic](https://spyglass.org/videogames-hollywood/) sort of way. Which, I was the, um, *prime* audience for. As I've written about – [probably](https://spyglass.org/feeding-the-beast/#:~:text=He%2DMan%20has%20been%20cast%20for%20a%20new%20live%2Daction%20Masters%20of%20the%20Universe%20movie%2C%20oddly%2C%20the%20article%20makes%20no%20mention%20of%20the%20old%20movie%2C%20which%20made%20Dolph%20Lundgren%20a%20large%20part%20of%20my%20childhood%20%28well%2C%20alongside%20his%20role%20in%20Rocky%20IV%29.%20Will%20it%20be%20the%20Barbie%20of%202026%3F) [far](https://spyglass.org/where-to-watch-works/#:~:text=The%20casting%20for,%5BTHR%5D) [too](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-016/#:~:text=Idris%20Elba%20is%20talks%20to%20join%20the%20new%20live%2Daction%20Masters%20of%20the%20Universe%20movie%20for%20Amazon/MGM.%20No%2C%20not%20as%20He%2DMan%2C%20but%20as%20Man%2Dat%2DArms.%20He%20better%20rocks%20the%20big%20mustache%20like%20John%20Cypher%20did%20in%20the%201987%20version%20%E2%80%93%20it%27s%20cannon.%20%5BTHR%5D) [much](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/166065880/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) – I grew up obsessed with the He-Man toys and cartoon. Did I know that it was created by Mattel as a way to combat *Star Wars* ([after they *passed* on those toys](https://geektyrant.com/news/the-crazy-story-behind-why-mattel-passed-on-star-wars-and-created-he-man-instead?ref=spyglass.org))? No. Would I have cared? No – have you *seen* the [Castle Greyskull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castle%5FGrayskull?ref=spyglass.org) toy?[3](#three) It's still awesome.[4](#four) I also loved the first *Masters of the Universe* movie even though it was scary as shit – especially if you're, I don't know, *five years old*, as I was [when it came out](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masters%5Fof%5Fthe%5FUniverse%5F%281987%5Ffilm%29?ref=spyglass.org). Frank Langella, FTW. Anyway, the fact that I wasn't there on opening night for this new one probably wasn't a great sign for its box office prospects. Worse, *I didn't see it in theaters at all*! A big part of the problem is that I now have young kids of my own. It's hard to find time to break away to go see a movie (well, one that's not in their wheelhouse at least). Sure, you do it for *The Odyssey* and *Spider-Man* (especially since my wife was interested in the former and my older child interested in the latter!), but *Masters of the Universe*? Sorry, He-Man. And I suspect I wasn't alone in my demographic – again, perhaps the *key* demographic here... But did I watch this new *Masters of the Universe* immediately when it came to streaming? You bet your Skeletor I did![5](#five) So what might Amazon do here for a sequel, strategy-wise? It's early, but I think the right idea would probably be a wide, but limited theatrical run. Make it a two-or-three-week-only engagement – [ideally with IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/) – to try to drive super-fans to theaters. Then go even faster to streaming. And ideally augment all of this with some killer toy sales! [You're Amazon](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) for Teela's sake! --- 1 And I don't mean Orko, who obviously also needs to be a focal point of any sequel! [↩](#) 2 Not helped by the role that Idris Elba plays in both. He's good in *Masters*, but come on... [↩](#) 3 As [the popcorn buckets](https://collider.com/he-man-skeletor-masters-of-the-universe-popcorn-buckets-first-look/?ref=spyglass.org) can attest! [↩](#) 4 I couldn't have been the only kid who was confused that the castle shaped like a skull wasn't the home of *the villain with the skull face*... [↩](#) 5 The movie also probably wasn't helped by some level of Jared Leto backlash, though the most recent [allegations](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7lg2nz2x2o?ref=spyglass.org) came out well after the movie was already bombing. Also, he was pretty widely considered to be [the best part/performance](https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/masters-of-the-universe-features-actually-great-jared-leto-performance/?ref=spyglass.org) of the movie (not that you can tell it's him). Though shout out to Alison Brie as Evil Lyn! [↩](#) ### YouTube and Netflix Head to War URL: https://spyglass.org/youtube-and-netflix-creator-war/ Last updated: 2026-08-25T13:42:39.000Z 🔗 YouTube Offers Creators Millions to Not Work With Netflix • Bloomberg YouTube and Netflix have seemed like they were on a slow-motion collision course for years. Now things are speeding up. Here's Lucas Shaw: > YouTube is offering millions of dollars to popular channels if they upload their videos to the site exclusively for a certain period of time, in an effort to halt Netflix's pursuit of its biggest stars, according to people familiar with the conversations. > > The payment would come in a couple of different forms. YouTube has discussed directly financing some programs, and it has also offered to allot a portion of major brand deals to creators. Though YouTube hasn’t finalized deals with any creators, it is close an agreement with several partners, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are sensitive and ongoing. These are carrots. But there are also sticks: > Creators who do sign deals with Netflix face consequences, YouTube has said, according to the people. YouTube will be less likely to feature them in marketing campaigns or at events if they release videos on Netflix at the same time. YouTube would also exclude those creators from collecting a share of proceeds from some major brand campaigns. Clearly, Netflix's various efforts to pick-off top YouTube talent to "take them pro' as it were, is pissing off YouTube. A number of other services from Facebook to Twitch to dozens of startups have tried to do this over the years, but these moves might seem to suggest that Netflix is getting some traction here. Or that YouTube [*really*](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2090196764401737737?ref=spyglass.org) doesn't want them to. To me, a few things are going on here. First, YouTube made the jump from the computer to the couch and took over the living room. This clearly freaked out Netflix because not only did they overrun their home turf, they did so, fast. YouTube did something similar to the podcast industry and seemingly singlehandedly took video podcasts from a niche to arguably the most important element of the industry. Spotify, the former leader there – [oh, Apple](https://spyglass.org/pod-is-dead/) – had to respond, and did [by partnering with Netflix](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/). At the same time, both services started ramping their efforts in more "traditional" television [like awards shows](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) and [yes, sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/). The latter has pretty much every player in tech fighting because it's obviously the most important element – [the NFL in particular](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) – when it comes to actual viewership and the all-important appointment – read: live – viewing. And that matters, of course, for ads. The area where YouTube, thanks in no small part to parent Google, dominates. But Netflix has been [ramping here fast](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/). And because they have more premium content, it's an easier sell straight from television in many ways. So yeah, Netflix has been [shifting towards](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) YouTube just as YouTube is shifting towards Netflix. But the real prize for both is to be the one main hub for content. What's "UGC" and what's "professional" is [blurring, fast](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/). Both want it all because both want to be [the UI](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) that [unites all content](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/), including from partners. It's a two-horse race. But lately, YouTube has seemingly been kicking Netflix's ass – [I wrote about this just a month ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) (with the url slug "netflix-vs-youtube"). Acquiring Warner Bros may have changed that narrative but, [well](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/)... YouTube's [Peacock deal](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/) was just salt in the wound. So again, it's interesting that YouTube feels the need to respond here – with both carrots and sticks. I'm [still waiting](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) for Netflix to pull their next rabbit out of their hat – [buying IMAX](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8E%9E%EF%B8%8F%20IMAX%20Explores%20a%20Sale)? [Universal](https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/)? Could they make *another* run at Warner Bros if the Paramount deal collapses under its own [weight](https://spyglass.org/paramount-aims-to-lower-the-lowest-bar-on-movie-theaters/)? Anyway, killer picture of Neal Mohan [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/youtube-offers-creators-millions-to-not-work-with-netflix-mt0lbfaj?ref=spyglass.org). Who looks like the Terminator. With a target. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-20--2026--11_03_25-PM.png) --- **Update August 25, 2026**: Some further thoughts on where all this is headed in this week's *From Afar* column... [Begun, the Bundle Wars HaveThe battle to control streaming has shifted…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4689eaa7-b240-49e1-8d6c-dfd909f27312.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-25--2026--02_14_10-PM-597af06f-d7f2-45ab-99c8-013a268c0630.png)](https://spyglass.org/streaming-bundle-wars/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube Faster Than...YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-0d3b9c95-16b3-420e-b18e-5c3a6982c780.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-16--2026--07_40_34-PM-729aba9c-9db8-4509-ac43-d6e38d71b057.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) [Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube’s EyeballsThe video podcast partnership may portend a bundle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c807f3e0-3c57-4e3c-ae7e-14faff6c8a4b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_eyeball_watching_youtube_--ar_169_--v_7_e6a927a4-7826-44cb-8f70-14fb3fd740fa_0-dd16bdde-1ac1-4ada-af82-60f626d2b098.png)](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4797a6c7-b959-47a4-b56d-b87cb3419fcf.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-4a3a9c9f-d7a7-4c19-8793-7efbc99fefd8.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [YouTube Beats AI to Disrupting Hollywood‘Backrooms’ and ‘Obsession’ have pried the filmmaking gates open, AI may blow the bloody doors off…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c22e502b-234f-4068-a249-a1246e1247ae.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/backrooms-main-3125330d-e4a3-4fda-9e04-ab20413d3d87.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/) [Netflix Needs a New ShakeupOutflanked by YouTube, they need a true focus on engagement…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-84e5c7f2-58b2-4b40-9277-396f0f172a05.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-6--2026--11_15_25-AM-1-0e3251f7-b878-4e75-b808-777b9228d76f.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) ### Pushing or Pacing or Pulling Back From the AI Frontier? URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-frontier-race/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T19:25:10.000Z This is a strange moment in time for AI. I mean, things are always sort of strange simply given the breakneck speed at which the technology is evolving. But that's the thing about right now: we're sort of paused? At least at the all-important frontier. We're used to a race. The various parties racing don't like to frame it that way publicly, but come on. It's a race. To AGI. Or RSI. For talent. Or the best models. Or to the models that simply score best on various tests. But in the past few weeks, it almost seems like it's more of a caution flag situation, to extend the metaphor. When the yellow flag is out in an F1 race, drivers must slow down and get behind a safety car. No overtaking is allowed. All drivers adhere to this for the integrity of the race – and so no one gets killed in moments of uncertainty... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple's EU App Store Armistice URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/ Last updated: 2026-08-21T15:50:01.000Z 🔗 Apple Announces Changes for Apps in the EU • Apple Newsroom Peace in Europe for Apple? Well, at least on one front, it seems: > Apple today announced changes to its business terms for apps in the European Union, following close collaboration with the European Commission. These changes resolve Apple’s disagreements with the Commission over business terms and alternative distribution. They also reduce complexity by moving every developer that distributes apps in the EU to a single set of business terms. Developers can sign the new terms today, and changes will go into effect on October 1. Notably, this isn't a proposal, it's the announcement of *actual changes* that Apple will implement (starting October 1) after "close collaboration" with the EC. And lest we think Apple is overplaying that last aspect, that group gave [a statement to *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-18/apple-lowers-app-store-fees-in-europe-to-settle-dispute-with-eu?ref=spyglass.org) backing up the assertion: > A spokesperson for the commission said it “welcomes Apple’s changes to their business terms, which follow a close dialogue” with the company. “Following today’s announcement, the Commission will monitor Apple’s effective implementation of the new terms,“ the spokesperson said in an emailed statement. So what are the changes? At the highest level, the biggest ones are the change in app distribution and in-app payment fees. - If you distribute through the App Store and use Apple's payment rails for in-app purchases, their cut is now **26%**, down from the old standard 30%. - But for the "vast majority of developers" – those that qualify for one of the lower-fee programs, it will be **15%** - If you distribute through the App Store but bring your own payment rails to use in-app, Apple gets a **20%** cut. - The lower fee here is **10%**. - If you distribute through the App Store but link-out to the web for payments, Apple gets a **15%** cut. - The lower fee here is also **10%**. - If you distribute through a third-party app store or the web, Apple gets a **5%** fee for their "Core Technology Commission". It's actually pretty straightforward. I suspect people will still complain that 26% is too high,[1](#one) but again for most developers, it will actually be 15%. This feels like mainly a way to keep the all-important big gaming fees – which make up most of in-app payments, and as such, most App Store fees – mostly intact. Many will also complain about the 5% "Core Technology Commission" but this seems like a relatively simple way for Apple to retain some level of compensation for ongoing device platform work – aka, the platform which allows all apps to work on iOS, iPadOS, etc. But to me, the most interesting thing about this is how neatly it lines up with Apple's recent proposal in the US when it comes to the link-out payments. [We just went over this](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/), but quickly: as a result of [the Epic trial](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/), Apple was [forced](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/) to allow apps to link out to the web for payments. Apple tried to take [a 27% commission](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/) for those payments – which actually would have resulted in [a *higher* cut](https://spyglass.org/apples-lol-fee/) than Apple's standard 30% in many cases – [which pissed off the judge](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/), who then threw the book at Apple and said they had to allow for web payments *without taking a cut*. An appeals court kept the link-out option [intact](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/), but said Apple should be allowed to collect some sort of commission. Apple tried to delay all of this while they appealed to the Supreme Court, but eventually they had to make a proposal, this time ideally in good faith. The number they landed on? 15%. That does not seem like a coincidence. It seems coordinated. It sure *looks* like Apple knew this EU deal was coming down the pike and that the bloc agreeing to their terms would bolster the case that these are "fair". The US judge still gets to decide that, and Epic has already pushed back as Apple seeks to negotiate directly. One big reason for pushing? Epic wants to ensure any changes Apple tries to negotiate be put in place for [*all* developers](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-court/). With that in mind, the EC framework sure seems like a potential proposal Apple would be willing to make and take. They technically don't have to, but aligning with these new EU rules would simplify/streamline the App Store rules and potentially alleviate some of the long-mounting pressure on those rules – which are [far out of date](https://500ish.com/the-app-store-commandments-a867a0409dff?ref=spyglass.org) at best and [out of touch](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) at worst. If I'm right, it will be up to Epic to agree and Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers to decide. Both remain clearly pissed off at Apple so there's certainly no guarantee of any such agreement. But again, the EU signing off on this is an interesting signal, if nothing else. Might Apple want to announce such a new deal at a big, upcoming event that every app developer in the world will be watching? We'll see! --- **Update August 19, 2026**: [Well it sure doesn't *look* like Tim Sweeney will have Epic settling with Apple anytime soon](https://x.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/2089945681255690352?ref=spyglass.org)! What's most odd about his tweet though is how overtly disingenuous it is – sure, it may not technically be a "settlement", but clearly the EC was in the loop with Apple on these changes and again, *they're publicly talking about how pleased they are with them*. Sweeney seems pretty upset about this possible detente in Europe. One read might be, per above, that these new rules would likely keep the rate for gaming commerce flowing fully through the App Store at the still pretty high 26%. Though, of course, Epic would have other options now to route would-be players and payers elsewhere! He also clearly has [the company account tweeting about this](https://x.com/EpicNewsroom/status/2089787577062559951?ref=spyglass.org) and those tweets are *also strange* in the way they're [matter-of-factly interpreting the DMA](https://x.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/2089858655722274942?ref=spyglass.org) in a way that the DMA itself doesn't seem to around link-out payments (seemingly conflating it with the current situation in the US, which is obviously different). And again, the EC has already given an on-the-record comment on all of this! --- 1 Sort of fun/interesting/weird that Apple set it exactly 1% below the 27% which got them into trouble in the first place. Apple would handle the payment processing in this case, so it's different. But 26% is an oddly specific number. Why not, say, 25%? Just optics off that 27% rejection? [↩](#) ### Apple Versus the Glassholes URL: https://spyglass.org/airpods-vision/ Last updated: 2026-08-23T14:48:02.000Z The first thing you'll notice is that there is no phone. The second thing you'll notice is that *there. is. no. phone*. It's not just that Apple leaked a codename or numeric reference to the long-rumored AirPods with cameras[1](#one) – which [I hope they call 'EyePods'](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) but probably something like 'AirPods Vision' or 'AirPods Ultra' is far more likely[2](#two) **\[**[**update below**](#update)**\]** – they [inadvertently leaked](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/08/17/camera-equipped-airpods-macos-26-7/?ref=spyglass.org) a *video* in the release candidate build of macOS 26.7\. Yes, not even the new, still-in-beta 'Golden Gate' version of the OS, but the soon-to-be upgraded 'Tahoe' variant. Someone is likely to be in a lot of trouble. Because yes, [the 13-second video](https://x.com/aaronp613/status/2089522745184760112?ref=spyglass.org) very clearly shows a man in a room pick up a book as a voiceover says "with Visual Intelligence, your world becomes savable". When I type that out, it makes it sound like this guy might be trying to save the world from disaster. But what he's actually doing is visually capturing the book in front of him so he can recall it later. "See something you like? Just ask me to save it for later," a voice which is clearly intended to be Siri says. The man nods and the video fades out... Visual Intelligence, of course, is nothing new. [I've long held](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) that it was one of the most underrated aspects of the iPhone, dating back to when Apple first tried to launch Apple Intelligence two years ago. But it was [a bit buried](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ios-18-2/). With iOS 27, it will be [baked directly into](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) the all-important Camera app. But again, the difference here in this video is that **there is no iPhone**. And again, that heavily implies that what the man is actually using to capture the book are *the AirPod*s that he's clearly wearing. At first glance, they don't look different from the current AirPods Pro. But the forensic experts on Xitter seem to think there are subtle differences in the stems. This is obviously where any camera component would likely go.[3](#three) So yeah, not only are these 'EyePods' coming, they're very likely coming soon. As in, probably set to be unveiled at the iPhone event in just a few short weeks. That's exciting because it's going to shift Apple into a whole new era. While Apple has long held a leading position in wearables, this will be their first *true* [AI wearable](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/). While a lot of the focus has been on the [potential](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) for Apple entering the smart glasses space to [meet Meta in market](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/), using the AirPods as their first entry point actually [makes a ton of sense](https://x.com/caro%5Fmilanesi/status/2089541585767731441?ref=spyglass.org). First and foremost, the AirPods are already an insanely popular product. While people made fun of how they looked at first – for the record, [I always thought they were ingenious](https://500ish.com/a-breath-of-fresh-airpods-81a660ab9685?ref=spyglass.org) – they're now ubiquitous. You literally can't go anywhere with a crowd without seeing many pairs tucked into peoples' ears. It's true in America, it's true in Europe. They're everywhere. They're mainstream. Contrast this with the Ray-Ban Meta glasses. I've seen a few pairs while out and about this Summer, but it's obviously not in the same ballpark. Estimates have these glasses perhaps around 10 million sold to date. Apple has sold *over 400 million AirPods* to date, *perhaps closer to 500 million*. It's not meant to be a fair sales comparison as AirPods have been both around longer and sell at lower price points, but the comparison matters when it comes to rolling out AI wearables into the world. Meta [smartly](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/) partnered with EssilorLuxottica to [leverage](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20The%20%27Meta%20Glasses%27) the Ray-Ban (and later Oakley) brand (and distribution), but these are not Apple-scale hardware. At least not yet. But Meta's partnership was also smart in perhaps a similar way to the playbook Apple will clearly run here. Ray-Ban Meta glasses look like Ray-Bans. AirPods with cameras, at least from what we can see here, look like AirPods. That obviously matters as both companies try to [negate the "Glasshole" problem](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/). That is, when Google Glass first started rolling out over a decade ago, they didn't look like anything else on the market. They were a sort of visor with a prism in the corner where information was displayed. On paper, this sounded cool – futuristic. In person... well, you sort of looked like an asshole. That's both not fair and entirely fair. If they simply looked weird, that would be one thing – again, the AirPods looked weird to many people to start. But the fact that they had a camera on them was, well, a problem. The Ray-Ban Metas also obviously have cameras, but thanks to the aforementioned use of the standard, iconic Ray-Ban designs, the system is far more subtle. This is an arguably *bigger* problem for people who care about privacy and potential surveillance, but at least the design isn't as in-your-face as Google Glass was. People like 'new' except when it comes to merging new design with new technology. Better to start with old design and new technology. Again, that's also what it seems like Apple is doing here with AirPods. We'll have to see what they look like from the front, but the fact that the overall footprint isn't wildly different suggests they'll be far more subtle in the wild. Had Apple started with smart glasses, unless perhaps they also teamed up with a famous eyewear brand, the result would be [far more in-your-face](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/), quite literally. Instead, when those first Apple smart glasses – iGlasses? – hit next year, the market should have about a year of getting used to Apple's first AI wearables – with cameras – in the market in the form of these new AirPods. That doesn't mean there won't be backlash against Apple's entry, but it certainly will help to blunt the potential impact. One of the most surprising elements of the Ray-Ban Metas (still such an awkward name to write and say) has been that there *hasn't been* a ton of backlash to date. Again, credit for Meta for knowing to partner with EssilorLuxottica here. But as the sales are growing – [and as Meta does Meta things](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) – the backlash is growing. To the point where I wouldn't be shocked if Apple further [pushes out](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Apple%27s%20iGlasses%20in%202027) their own smart glasses offerings to try to distance themselves from any would-be controversy. Oh and by the way, it's not just the cameras. It's the cameras mixed with the other currently most controversial technology in the world: AI. The Ray-Ban Metas launched as more of a cameras-plus-music thing, and that perhaps also helped ease any controversy. But as Meta has [ramped up](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-glasses/) their AI efforts, the tech is becoming [more of a focal point](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) with the glasses too, which is naturally aiding in ramping any controversy surrounding [them](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/). Apple will seemingly be going head-first into such controversy with the AI focus from day one. Sorry, I mean 'Apple Intelligence' – or 'Visual Intelligence' not 'AI', totally different, [you see](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-apple-ai/). There had been [some talk](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/apple-s-camera-equipped-airpods-reach-advanced-testing-stage-in-ai-device-push?ref=spyglass.org) that these AirPods with cameras wouldn't actually be able to take pictures but instead [would simply be to "look" at the world](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) in real time. This video blurs that notion – at the very least, it suggests the cameras are used to look at and remember an object, even if it doesn't take an actual picture – though it still might for your memory? – which [probably wouldn't be a great picture anyway](https://spyglass.org/airpods-with-cameras/)! Video almost certainly will be off the table, even if just at first. Maybe Apple enables such capabilities down the line as people grow more comfortable with such devices out in the wild. To that end, when these AirPods with cameras are pulling in information, surely there will be some sort of indicator? A light on the stems, perhaps? That might be slightly weird as you don't have such an indicator on the back of [your phone](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/), but again, this is about establishing new norms and trying to help people be at ease around this new technology. Apple, of course, has a natural advantage here in that they're generally viewed as the most privacy-centric of the Big Tech players. They'll undoubtedly note that any data ingested by these devices will be either securely handled on-device ([presumably on your iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/)) or, if you choose, via their secure cloud set-up. They're going to triple-down on any privacy messaging here. Meta, on the other hand, is undoubtedly last on the Big Tech trust scale. Again, it's sort of incredible that the Ray-Ban Metas are working at all... But Apple still runs a real risk here in launching not just a wearable with cameras, but one entirely built around AI. This is walking right into the lion's den. Perhaps not wearing Google Glass, but still, there's some real Glasshole risk here. Which is why the AirPods are the right first step to take. --- **Update August 19, 2026**: Some of the code in the macOS beta [suggests](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/08/18/camera-airpods-naming/?ref=spyglass.org) Apple may simply still go with 'AirPods Pro' as the name for the version with the cameras. Apple, sort of confusingly, already does this for the "regular" AirPods, where there are two versions (one with ANC and one without), so it's certainly possible Apple just makes this a more expensive variant of the AirPods Pro – starting at, say $349? [And they may even seek to downplay the camera element further](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2089826819226661069?ref=spyglass.org) by simply calling them '**AirPods Pro 4 with Visual Intelligence**'. In fact, I can definitely *see* that happening... --- **Update August 20, 2026**: It looks like the leak may be even more problematic for Apple because it's teasing the imminent launch of a product which may not be imminently ready to launch, [per Mark Gurman at *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/apple-s-camera-equipped-ai-airpods-remain-on-track-for-2027-despite-video-leak?ref=spyglass.org). As he's previously reported, while Apple *did* initially intend for these new AirPods to launch in 2026, and was even testing them internally with employees – and um, *obviously shooting demo videos for them*, as this video leak is very real – software bugs and supply chain woes have pushed them into 2027, it seems. Quite the tease! Also, Gurman notes that, as discussed above, the cameras in the products are "low-resolution censors" – i.e. not meant to take photos to save, let alone videos – which should ease around the "pervertpods" problem... --- **Update August 23, 2026**: A bit more has seemingly been revealed about *how* this device may work... [So Much for the ‘PervPods’Apple may aim to combat any ‘surveillance tech’ backlash with comically low AirPod AI camera resolutions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-84ec5660-a6b0-4ede-b5b4-fd7a29f6e4b6.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-23--2026--03_40_19-PM-12e29a0d-fd95-4a51-8dd2-a6a3925be4e1.png)](https://spyglass.org/pervpods/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [EyePodsAirPods with cameras aren’t to take pictures, but to let Siri “see”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3bdd9f68-3189-4a59-ba15-ea09f2770602.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-8--2026--10_54_53-AM-1-739642cc-b4bf-4cdc-afce-868864e1a274.png)](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) [There Is No PhoneOpenAI is not building a phone. Amazon is not building a phone. And now SpaceX is not building a phone. Are you sensing a trend? The trend is that basically the entire tech industry is rumored to once again be building their own smartphones. But they’re all denying it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-eef65bce-0fae-4956-8819-0777c42aab13.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/l-intro-1726070817-fc172e1d-5472-4838-a134-53c07ebf7385.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) [Meta’s Recurring Apple NightmareWith smartglasses, Apple is once again entering Meta’s turf. Wielding a familiar weapon: the iPhone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ea8ea41c-ff3d-4073-87d5-515b78dec411.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-13--2026--01_49_19-PM-2f278862-ee5e-4344-bb07-2ce155446a36.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) --- 1 Something which they've also been [doing plenty of here as well](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/08/17/macos-26-7-unreleased-apple-devices/?ref=spyglass.org)! [↩](#) 2 We know John Ternus isn't afraid to shake things up a bit – even branding-wise, with things like the MacBook Neo, so perhaps we get a new sub-brand here? 'AirPods Neo'? 'AirPods See'? 'AirPods Intelligence'? 'AIrPods'? [↩](#) 3 Though I suppose it's possible they're at end of of the AirPods' main bulb? [↩](#) ### You Gotta Fight For Your Write URL: https://spyglass.org/anthropic-ai-watermarks/ Last updated: 2026-08-18T11:56:17.000Z Someone reset the 'Days Without Incident' clock at Anthropic to 0\. From, I don't know, maybe 1, at most 2, [these days](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/). Look, when I first saw [the news](https://www.theregister.com/ai-and-ml/2026/08/11/anthropic-pledges-to-embed-watermarks-to-help-discern-ai-slop-in-sop-to-eu/5285792?ref=spyglass.org) that the company would be "watermarking" text, I didn't think much of it. That's in part because [they didn't really explain](https://support.claude.com/en/articles/16266773-how-claude-marks-ai-generated-content?ref=spyglass.org) how they'd be doing it so I assumed, [like probably most people](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/08/11/anthropic-claude-watermarks?ref=spyglass.org), that they'd be embedding some invisible characters in text outputs. But that, of course, would only work for people who directly copy-and-paste text from Claude to elsewhere. If you re-wrote whatever the output was, or used some tool to "wash" the text – AI laundering? – you'd remove such "watermarks". Still, [many were up-in-arms](https://www.techmeme.com/260811/p2?ref=spyglass.org#a260811p2) about this because it was some level of invasive or sneaky. Others because it was going to gunk up the internet even more with superfluous characters. And some simply because it was going to make using AI to write without being known *harder to pull off*! As it turns out, [what they're *actually* doing](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-text-watermark?ref=spyglass.org) – or planning to do – to pull this "watermarking" off is instead fairly insane. Basically, Anthropic has designed a system that will alter the output in a way that allows them to assess the probability that any block of text has been generated by Claude. The key is switching one possible output to another at various points in a way that they suggest would only be perceptible by them, holding the keys to how they're doing this. While it's true that Google has also been leveraging this same basic idea in the form of their "[SynthID](https://deepmind.google/models/synthid/?ref=spyglass.org)" technology for a couple of years, I suspect it hasn't been met with such outrage simply because most people don't use Gemini for such purposes – at least not to the extent they use Claude (or ChatGPT).[1](#one) Regardless, Anthropic has now pulled this to the forefront and made it a debate. Again, at first glance this may not sound so bad. Perhaps even somewhat clever. I'm reminded of how back in my reporting days, [I used to insert](https://www.yahoo.com/news/tech-writer-successfully-inceptions-tech-blogosphere-060405254.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAIfiYbdlMIrKBSwioMYdiCO7IPPxuytToiu7XYaeEHd53OQ2eX84W-zAIiZgVsX%5F4rEqKt7v2qHgjePQ8uM4KCsKTlU6K%5FggbB7%5FafkKLKdScPgNisJU8CKNnFVvm4b4aQe5aEezenSs9e1iYWIDhdIMgD3obVrv-LvaFcadw0Un&ref=spyglass.org) some subtle tweaks to catch if someone was trying to copy a scoop without properly attributing the information source (me).[2](#two) You'd be surprised how often this worked![3](#three) To that end, I honestly don't think I'd be as upset/annoyed if Anthropic was doing this simply as a way to catch (or, if you prefer "identify") people who use AI to, say, write *entire* thought pieces. Just write the damn thing you lazy sonofabitch. Or don't, but don't put your name on it like you did! Other tools and [services](https://www.pangram.com/?ref=spyglass.org) have been popping up to do this, obviously. I'm not really sure we *need* to police such things, but it is also amusing to know the type of people who do this. Then again, it also opens a can of worms in terms of if such output should be considered as a "valid" form of expression if it's driven by your own input (your prompt)... The key, I think, is that *many people just want to know*. They want to know if you used AI to generate what they're reading. And in some situations, like legal proceedings, people may *need* to know. To make sure they can trust that the actual legwork was done to say, prosecute a case, versus just the prompt work. Which is why the EU passed the law that Anthropic is now trying to adhere to with this! (More on this in a minute.) Should anyone be *forced* to disclose this? Again, I don't know. I think so, and certainly I'd prefer it, but this area seems pretty gray with a lot of slippery slopes. Should Anthropic be the one enforcing it? Well, like it or not, with this, they are. Anyway, the far bigger problem I have is that this isn't just about text that people are copying and pasting elsewhere. *It's about all text*. As in, the kind you're being *served up* inside of Claude as well – even if it's not meant to be put elsewhere. Anthropic is admitting that they're *manipulating* the output in order to implement this system. Again, that's insane. It may sound small or subtle, but it's just an awful decision and precedent to manipulate your product in this way. Even if you don't notice? **Especially if you don't notice**. This is full on subversion at scale. But as weirded out as I may be by this, it's nothing compared to John Gruber, who devoted [almost 5,000 words to the matter this weekend](https://daringfireball.net/2026/08/anthropics%5Fwatermark%5Ftext%5Fadulteration%5Fin%5Fclaude%5Fis%5Fa%5Fperversion%5Fof%5Fwriting?ref=spyglass.org) on *Daring Fireball*, calling it not "subversion" but "perversion". Here's a taste: > One of my fundamental problem with this is that no two synonyms carry the *exact* same meaning. “*He leaped at the chance*” and “*He jumped at the opportunity*” are very similar sentences expressing the same general sentiment, but they are *not* the same. The exact words we choose when writing matter. I want any LLM I use to choose the very best, most precise words at every single decision point. An obvious constraint that I accept is time and computation. Within the constraint of executing inference quickly, and at a certain cost per token, I want the best words. This constraint matches human writing. I could surely write a better column by taking longer to write it. I write with a sense of how much care I should put into every word and punctuation choice I make. I take more time with certain paragraphs, sentences, or even individual word choices when my gut feeling says I should. > > In other words, these are *necessary* trade-offs. These factors are all in *my* interest: speed, cost, quality. Ideally I would like perfect writing, at instantaneous generation speed, at zero cost. None of those things are possible. Computation is not free of charge (and cloud-based LLM inference with leading models is actually expensive). Inference is not instantaneous. And great writing, whether natural or artificial, can only *approach* perfection. > > The idea that anything other than *my* needs should factor into the generation of text *for me* is patently offensive. Incidentally, I happened to write about AI and writing [just yesterday](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing/), before I started to dive into this situation, noting the import I place on word selection. This Anthropic nonsense throws that notion right out the window. You may as well just buy a [Mad Libs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad%5FLibs?ref=spyglass.org) and run a random synonym generator. For all [the talk](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) about AI slop, *this is AI slop*! And for a company that likes to [portray](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) and [convey](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) moral [superiority](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) at every [turn](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/), and to hold [themselves](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) as the [stewards of AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/), it's a bad look. Yes, it's being somewhat forced upon them by the EU, but they don't have to do this everywhere, and yet they are. They'll say that's just easier, and I'm sure that's true. But it doesn't make it better. That makes it worse. This is a nearly $1T company. They're about to be one of the largest companies in the world. Hell, they already are. Put in the effort to not make your product and service shittier for every single user. Again, it may seem like a small thing. But small things matter. And they tend to snowball... Honestly, what Anthropic should do here is tell the EU, just as their soon-to-be Big Tech peers, Apple, Google, and Meta do, that their rules are stupid. As with [other such EU rules](https://spyglass.org/tag/eu/), they appear at first glance to perhaps be coming from the right place, but they're usually just [political grandstanding](https://spyglass.org/red-red-whine/). Worse, [they seemingly don't think](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-clown-town/) through the [very obvious second-order effects](https://spyglass.org/eu-no-tech-zone/) of [such rules](https://spyglass.org/europe-cookie-banners/). Also, such rules were [set in March 2024](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-will-totally-control-ai/). That may as well have been 50 years ago when you're operating at the speed of AI development. If the EU mandates that the big AI tools have to implement these "safeguards", the people most likely to take advantage of such things are just going to turn to other tools. And what happens when running models locally on machines becomes far more commonplace? There's just no way this actually works. Again, all it will do is make what were the most-used AI tools worse. And that, in turn, may make the most-used AI tools less used. Of course, that often does seem like the EU's basic mandate. So... I digress. This is all just so nutty. Not that it's happening – again, Google already has been doing this and the EU is mandating it – but that it needs to be explained to these companies why it's such a batshit idea. Again, they're making their products less trustworthy – *on purpose*. [Writing with AI was already contentious](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). Now it's nuclear. Why does this need to be spelled out? It's almost as if they have [a reading-the-room problem](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) here. And [perhaps](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) that is [impacting](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/) the overall [perception](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) of AI. [You think](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/)? I'll let Gruber take us home: > This isn’t just about text one might generate with the intention of passing it off as their own natural work. This isn’t even about LLM proofreading of work written by hand. Anthropic is saying that *all* new Claude models are going to adulterate every single bit of text longer than 200 tokens (\~150 words) they generate, including everything it presents to its users to read. So even in a private conversation between a user and Claude, which will never be read by anyone other than the user, Claude will begin making word choices in the name of marking its output in statistically predictable ways rather than maximizing clarity and precision. > > Even today’s so-called frontier models are already decidedly [lacking in lucidity](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/08/11/economist-ai-writing?ref=spyglass.org). Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, et al. are “better writers” than most humans and produce better prose than the median human. But: no shit. Most people are terrible writers. The “average person” is pretty stupid and [half of all people are stupider than that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDUIX2-akuQ&ref=spyglass.org). And there are many smart, interesting people who are miserable writers. So as impressive as LLMs are, the bar is low. The best writing I see come out of these models is worse than anything I would choose to read for pleasure. And now Anthropic is saying they’re going to make it worse, on purpose, for purposes that do not benefit me in any way? Even if only slightly worse? > > Get fucked. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-914d196b-f287-47d4-acef-366db578e5b6.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3-98c3a737-8568-45e0-8884-38377e319e81.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) [The Write StuffUsing AI to write is not quite so black and white…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8870561f-171a-45d9-9686-f78bd982ee82.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_robot_writing_with_a_quill_pen_styled_like_a_chalk_draw_8c776b70-8e8d-4dc4-a493-3fc9610e89a8_2-4ec75586-b699-427c-a269-d731349c13e0.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing/) [Anthropic’s Heel TurnIt’s perhaps more of an Anakin Skywalker situation…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c2e3caf4-c416-487c-97fe-21c7caa4d9b3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/starwars3_movie_screencaps.com_14193-707508ad-9aad-41f0-ad1e-04f4c5dd95cf.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) --- 1 It was also framed more around images, video, and audio "watermarking" and less around the text element. [↩](#) 2 And [what outrage this caused back then in the blogosphere](https://massivegreatness.com/i-cant-not-be-trusted-fuckers?ref=spyglass.org). Which feels so quaint now. [↩](#) 3 Some companies employ similar tactics for internal memos too. Best not leak! [↩](#) ### The Pixel 'HiLight' is a LowLight URL: https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-hilight-lowlight/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T19:21:20.000Z 🔗 Pixel 11 Pro's 'HiLight' is Another Half-Baked Feature • 9to5Google [Presentation aside](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-trevor-noah/), clearly this was a bit of a muted year for Pixel hardware. Some small upgrades, some actual *downgrades*, and – undoubtedly related to both – price increases. The one new stand-out feature, hardware-wise at least, for the devices was clearly [the 'HiLight' indicator](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/devices/pixel/pixel-11-pro-hilight/?ref=spyglass.org) in the camera bump. [Much like BlackBerrys of old](https://thenewthings.com/p/the-new-pixel-feature-i-want-on-my-iphone?ref=spyglass.org) – which [everyone](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/) keeps trying to [get back to](https://spyglass.org/clever-clicks-smartphone-accessory/), it seems – this gives you a visual alert to a notification. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's comically under-implemented, to the point of being pointless: > That’s where this year’s “HiLight” feature comes into play. The rear-facing LED is available on all three Pixel 11 Pro models, and somehow it feels more half-baked than the temperature sensor. > > This feature currently exists [for exactly two functions](https://9to5google.com/2026/08/12/pixel-11-pro-hilight/?ref=spyglass.org) – to tell you when a favorite contact is calling you, and to indicate that Gemini is active. > > That’s it. It's completely inexplicable that this notification is only for phone calls and not messages. I mean, even BlackBerry did that! Google seems to be messaging that this could come down the road, but how do you not launch with this? Who gives a shit about phone call notifications? [The phone functionality](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) is arguably the *least* interesting element of modern smartphones. But even better would be: > Also, elephant in the room, why in the world does this not work as a notification LED?! > > Our Andrew Romero pointed out just how good this would be. Having the LED customized to the app you got a notification from – reds and purple for Instagram, as one example – would be *so good*. I see no reason why, with the right software, you couldn't have a few options. Say, light up "red" if my wife is messaging me somewhere (not just a phone call, but in *any* app). But also, say, light up "blue" if I get a Signal message. I mean *obviously*. The Gemini notification is fine/cute – perhaps [mirroring](https://spyglass.org/dossier-005-jensen-roars/?ref=from-afar-newsletter#:~:text=Can%20a%20%27Pixel%20Glow%27%20strip%20on%20rumored%20new%20Pixel%20laptops%20%28and%20phones%29%20recapture%20some%20of%20that%20glowing%20Apple%20logo%20magic%20of%20old%3F%20Sounds%20like%20it%20will%20interact%20with%20Gemini%20too.%20%5B9to5Google%5D) the 'Pixel Glow' strip that Google is trying to make happen on ([the still poorly named](https://spyglass.org/googlebook/)) Googlebooks? It's probably a good thing to have if you're going to be [*talking* to](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) Gemini [a lot](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) and need to know it's active/listening. Of course, the only time I would ever put my phone face down on a table is if I'm using a case (I worry less about scratches and more just the cleanliness of the surface for a device I'm going to touch so often throughout a day). And my "case" of choice is usually a MagSafe wallet which allows me to put the phone face-up (while making the phone actually stable with the ever-massive camera bump). And this obviously negates anything on the back of the phone. Also, all of this with regard to notifications is what my Apple Watch is far better for anyway. So really this is just a feature for if you don't wear a smartwatch *and* often leave your phone face-down on a table. That's probably nice/useful but only if Google adds the obvious other notification integrations and why they're not launching with those is just dumbfounding. But, to Schoon's point, Google often launches with features for Pixel devices which are half-baked at best. And as such, they usually vanish rather quickly. ### The Write Stuff URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-writing/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T19:16:19.000Z 🔗 Big AI Labs Don’t Get What People Want • Wired A number of interesting parts in this interview of Tim O’Reilly — including kicking off with the [distinction](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/) between *actual* open source and all the current buzz ([again](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/)) around [open weights](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) — but the ending bit about AI and writing stands out: > **Steven Levy:** When I edit this interview I will boil down our long conversation to a shorter one, but I won’t use AI to do it. And of course, the writing in the introduction will be all mine. It’s actually our policy. > > **Tim O'Reilly:** I think that's a legacy thing that's going to go. My ability to have a thought partner in AI when I'm writing is very powerful. > > **SL:** AI does your writing for you? > > **TO:** No, no. I use it for brainstorming, and sort of just functional writing. When I interview somebody for an hour, I go to AI and say, “Turn it into something I can use.” I don't have the time to write up all those interviews. I’ve already said ([and written](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/)) my piece about using AI to write. To quickly summarize: quality aside, I personally don’t see the point because most of what I get out of writing *is from the process itself*. From thinking to choosing what words to use — and just as importantly, what words *not* to use. It’s a bit like having a robot run a marathon for you. What’s the point? But I also say that as someone who loves writing. Many people do not, and so I also think using AI is fine for certain types of low-stakes writing, [like many types](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) [of email](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/). But if you’re actually putting your name to something more substantive, forget the audience, you’re just sort of cheating *yourself*. Anyway, what I really want to remark on here is the idea of using AI to *brainstorm*. In the past, I may have written this off as well. But actually, with the rise of the [very good AI voice technology](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) — [namely, GPT-Voice](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) — I actually have found going back and forth with AI quite useful in helping to think through some ideas. And actually, it’s less about the content coming *from* the AI, it’s just the fact that I'm having a conversation and it’s drawing ideas out of *my* brain. I’ve long found that some of my best ideas to write about come out of conversations. And while it’s obviously great to have those with *people*, people aren’t always immediately available to have a conversation with you. And again, if I’m being honest, it’s less about what the other person is saying and more that the chat is fleshing out my own ideas. In a way, I’m sort of “using” the human on the other end. Why not use an AI for that? Again, I’ve found it quite interesting these past few weeks. These conversations with AI have spurred some ideas in my brain that I’m not sure I would otherwise have had. And to me, it's the actual *speaking* that's key to that. Saying things out loud forces your mind into places – at least it does for me. > **SL:** Aren’t you worried that AI will eventually supplant human writing? > > **TO:** AI is literally a medium, in the same way that written words are a medium, or paint or music is a medium. When I talk to an AI or design art with it, I get something different out of it than you do, in the same way that Michelangelo and Van Gogh got completely different things out of paint. The idea that you can't write with AI will seem as curious as the idea that you can't make a good portrait or landscape with a camera. There will be people who are masters at expressing their ideas by summoning words from LLMs. People used to ride horses. Now, few do. We're in the early days. I’m honestly not sure if I agree or disagree with this. I think I mainly agree but it’s also still [a bit hard to see now](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/). Because so much of what I see as [the output](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) still seems to mostly follow [the same general patterns](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/). I do expect that will change as models continue to improve, but perhaps I’m just not good at prompting when it comes to producing output that [could pass as good writing](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/). On the flip side, I think the people who view any kind of AI-aided creation as an abomination are sort of silly. [AI is a tool](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/). The latest in a string of technological tools which will never end. What people inherently actually [don’t like](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) is the way this tool came about — by [ingesting much of the internet](https://spyglass.org/ai-synthetic-data-ouroboros/). That is, words written by humans. Yet, in a way, humanity has done something similar throughout history, from cave painting on down, but this new level of “learning” has been done at a scale that no human can match. And, in fact, without other humans on the receiving end. It feels unnatural because it *is* unnatural, but that also depends on what your definition of “natural” is. **One more thing:** when asked if open source can break the Big AI hold: > I don't predict the future. But I will say the world is proceeding the way that I hoped it would. What if the big frontier models end up like mainframes or supercomputers—aimed at really hard problems, which are not actually the thing that gets diffused throughout society? Lost in all the aforementioned [open weight debates](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) is the notion that the frontier models may end up [being overkill](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/) on a number of fronts — including, importantly, price *and* performance. Beyond some of the "open" players [catching up](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) on the latter, the real [takeaway](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai-muse-glimmer/) of this particular era may be the realization that we don’t need the absolute frontier for many tasks. And, in fact, more nimble, tailored models may be better suited for certain – maybe even *most*? – jobs. The question there is whether the best of those come from — are distilled from — the frontier. And who gets to distill... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c3a9f3c2-be67-4fcc-9679-e8027db653d7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3-6038e9ff-e8ea-4b96-85d6-efb1c978da51.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) [Tasty AIIs AI “taste” a quixotic task?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-ab87e036-5b7a-4a03-9097-b75b1ebbe7fa.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-25--2026--03_23_08-PM-1-5b88b49b-2eff-4932-9ca5-5ade1a0b025a.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/) [The First True AI ChatbotAs in, actually chatting. As in, with voice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c089abb9-ad7d-4233-9d18-80169506cc93.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-9--2026--12_36_26-PM-c13ebf89-8cf7-40e4-bdcc-e12119ff2859.png)](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) ### Google (Again) Brings a Comedian to a Tech Keynote URL: https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-trevor-noah/ Last updated: 2026-08-17T10:34:00.000Z On the plus side, it wasn't as bad [as last year](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/). On the minus side, it was still pretty bad. Look, I'm clearly – *clearly* – not the intended audience for [the 'Made by Google' events](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c84y9gAY90c&ref=spyglass.org). But then again, shouldn't I be? I'm a sort of tech-obsessed user that upgrades my smartphone every year. Yes, that's been an iPhone for the past 19 years,[1](#one) but I often [tend to buy a Pixel device too](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/) because I'm curious! Yes, that's crazy. And yes, I'm not at all a typical user. But with the cards – and devices – played right, I could, theoretically, be someone who moves to a Pixel phone as my primary device one day, *right*?[2](#two) I mean, not if I'm watching this presentation. Again, Trevor Noah was a far better MC than Jimmy Fallon was last year. But the bar was so comically low – pun actually intended – that almost anyone would have been an upgrade. Sure, my own personal preferences naturally finds Noah funnier than Fallon, but he also just seemed decidedly more chill and at ease than Fallon and, as such, a lot of his jokes landed with less of a cringey thud. Of course those jokes were almost always negated by the Google employees he was playing against as they were clearly far more worried about sticking to the script. And it's hard to blame them, they're not comedians nor actors. But they are asked to be here. It's a fucking weird strategy for a product unveiling! Again, clearly I'm not the audience. But who that audience is, I don't know. People who are fans of the various celebrities they showcased, I guess. But even then, is that really a good acquisition strategy? How much are they paying these people to hawk these products and how many purchases will it actually lead to? Clearly Google can measure this. Are they? Or are they just hoping for some kind of halo effect? Are they just hoping for more views on YouTube? What's the ROI? I would *like* to give Google credit for trying something different. This is *not* an Apple keynote. But I gave them credit for that last year. It didn't work, yet they doubled down. Again, Noah is an upgrade over Fallon, but the format just doesn't work. At least for me. And I assume for many. It still just feels like an infomercial. It's like when Meta has [tried to do keynotes](https://500ish.com/the-petal-to-the-meta-b9a06692e9a0?ref=spyglass.org) with laughably scripted "candid" conversations. But at least those were *actual* Meta employees who, [script aside](https://spyglass.org/metas-frenetic-connect-keynote/), were presumably *actually excited* about what was launching. Here, half of the presenters were actors and/or celebrities. Are they genuinely excited about new Pixel products? Maybe. But also maybe mainly because they're getting paid to be excited about them. Start the countdown to shots of them in the wild using iPhones... Again, the other half of the presenters were actual Google employees, but they were faced with the impossible task of acting against professionals. For the most part, they were actually pretty good at it, but still failed because it all just looks so scripted. *Because it was so scripted*! What is the point?! At least the events are live! (Aside from the many pre-recorded videos Noah would tee-up throughout.) As such, they do feel actually more *alive* than the last several years [of Apple events](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/). But again, sort of in an awkward way here. Staging aside, there was also this weird undercurrent throughout the event, highlighted by Noah again and again, which boiled down to: *we know we promised the last wave of AI was cool, but didn't really do much for you, *but this time, it's really cool**. Okay, but why would anyone buy that, quite literally, this time?[3](#three) Noah veered between seemingly improvising well – *as you'd hope!* – to awkwardly being forced to come back to the script. And again, that just serves to undermine the entire "performance".[4](#four) Is he actually excited about any of this? Even if he is, when we're asked to believe that he knows these random Google product managers well, casually sitting on the couch with them, just to catch up, it just all feels so fake.[5](#five) It's like Google doesn't quite understand what *actually* made Apple keynotes work. It's not the current, slick variety. It's the history behind them dating to when Steve Jobs would be on stage, [clearly excited](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) and [enthusiastic](https://techcrunch.com/2009/09/17/the-importance-of-enthusiasm-in-any-product/?ref=spyglass.org) about what he was [showcasing](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/). That's what translates and what people want to see. In that regard, hiring actors to do this is the *opposite* of the point. --- **Update August 17, 2026**: As for one of the key features of the Pixel devices being shown off/touted... [The Pixel ‘HiLight’ is a LowLightWhat was Google thinking here?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d473ce3f-d3dd-4be4-80f3-456560cce156.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/KW_G_HiLite.max-1440x810-1-7aad8da3-2bfc-486b-afbe-86410713a994.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-hilight-lowlight/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Google’s Distractingly Smarmy Pixel EventNext time, let’s not use the talk show host or infomercial set?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-458b1e9f-a055-45ab-b2e5-de330792a1b0.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-08-20-at-10.25.34---PM-c2b33a1e-7f93-4550-9bd9-48f49dcd4d5e.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/) --- 1 Yes, even for the 11 of those years that *I worked at Google*. Sorry, Google! [↩](#) 2 I can't decide if it was weird or smart to set up Alex Cooper as the Switcher-in-Residence. If it's legit, probably smart. But again, better not capture any shots of her with an iPhone! [↩](#) 3 Also, it all honestly felt decidedly AI-lite versus what you'd expect?! Then again, maybe that shouldn't be a huge surprise [at this particular moment in time](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/)? [↩](#) 4 The parts with his fellow South African, Noel, while obviously staged, were also by far the best of the bunch. Fun/funny banter. [↩](#) 5 Which is honestly a bit annoying when say, the ASL demo is so awesome. In ways, this felt like a *distraction* from the technology. [↩](#) ### Apple's App Store Fees Live to Die Another Day URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-cut-death/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T20:43:55.000Z 🔗 App Store Proceeding Halted by Supreme Court for Now • Bloomberg Apple's App Store fees are hanging on for dear life: > [Apple Inc.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US?ref=spyglass.org) won a one-day reprieve from the Supreme Court Wednesday as Justice Elena Kagan paused proceedings before a California trial court in the iPhone maker’s long-running antitrust feud with Fortnite-maker [Epic Games Inc.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/748448Z:US?ref=spyglass.org) > > The administrative stay issued by Kagan is designed to give the high court more time to consider Apple’s request for a longer-term stop to additional lower court action in the case. Absent the Supreme Court’s order, Apple would have needed to make a filing with the US District Court for the Northern District of California by Wednesday afternoon. Kagan paused proceedings until 5:00 p.m. Washington time Thursday. In other words, Apple was going to have to submit a proposal to the California court for what they think a "fair" App Store cut should be – something between 0% and 27% – with evidence to back up that proposal. While they wouldn't have been forced to implement that fee yesterday, it is a massive component of the on-going legal challenge because it will essentially put the wheels in motion to bring about a lower fee. Potentially a *much* lower fee. Apple, of course, doesn't want to lower the fee. They didn't want to lower it from their standard 30% cut, but [their sole loss in "winning" the Epic court case](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) ensured the end of that. It meant developers could link out to the web to handle payments outside of the App Store rails, which Apple [reluctantly allowed](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/) alongside a 27% fee. This fee, famously, [pissed off](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) US District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers. Because it was [pretty clear that 27% was backed into](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/) by Apple to not only keep the fee structure intact, but also to keep the entire model intact. Because a 27% fee was likely a *worse* deal for many developers who chose to use it (because they'd have to pay the processing fees for anyone they choose to handle the payments on the web, which are usually just above 3% – [making the total cut paid *above 30%*](https://spyglass.org/apples-lol-fee/)). Anyway, yeah Judge Gonzalez Rogers found Apple's "remedy" so [insulting](https://spyglass.org/apple-sells-soul/) that she asked for Apple to be held in criminal contempt of court. And she ordered Apple to stop charging fees for web-based payments. Apple has kept trying – [and failing](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/) – to reverse all of this. The Ninth Circuit upheld the contempt finding but also said Apple should be allowed to charge *something* for their App Store fees (even when processed through the web), just not 27%. Apple tried to freeze the entire thing while they appealed to the Supreme Court – and the Supreme Court denied the freeze. But they didn't deny hearing the case – *yet*. That's why they're pausing the proceedings for now (after Judge Gonzalez Rogers [denied](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/17442392/1706/epic-games-inc-v-apple-inc/?ref=spyglass.org) the same request), while they weigh Apple's appeal. But before they do that, they're basically likely to decide today – again, it was just a 24-hour delay – whether they should grant a longer stay. Presumably if the court thinks they're unlikely to hear Apple's appeal, they may not grant that longer stay. Or if they think Apple filing their number won't harm their business, they'll let it proceed. But Apple will argue that if the longer stay isn't granted, it *will* cause major harm to their business because again, it will effectively end the App Store cut as we know it. So yeah, it's a big deal. Especially because in their most recent earnings report a couple weeks ago, Apple noted that their [Services growth was weaker than expected](https://spyglass.org/predicting-googles-ai-earthquake/) in part due to the pressure the App Store model is under. Other countries have already taken [various](https://spyglass.org/eu-app-store/) [actions](https://spyglass.org/eu-to-apple-nope/) to [change](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-linking-fees/) Apple's fee structure – and even force them to allow for third-party app stores. But the US is obviously Apple's most important market. And beyond all of the above, they're also under growing pressure because [Google got more fully owned by Epic](https://spyglass.org/google-epic-fail/) in a separate trial around the Play Store. They lost that case [so badly](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) that they ended up [cutting a deal with Epic](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/) to end their own 70/30 split, amongst other things. All of this is why [I've been predicting/waiting](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) for Apple to change their tune on the App Store and "proactively" change some of the rules, including, most notably, the standard 70/30 split. Yes, they've tweaked it over time due to various developer backlash (and political/governmental pressure), but it seems well past the time to rip the Band-Aid off – as it's in the process of being taken off ever-so-slowly by courts around the world. And, as everyone knows, that's far more painful. And yet, Apple has thus far refused to budge. Presumably they're holding out for the hope that the US Supreme Court hears their case and determines the 27% shenanigans didn't warrant a contempt ruling (as well as that their one loss against Epic shouldn't dictate changes [for every developer across the board](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-court/)). But regardless, the whole thing is so clearly hanging on by a thread. My hope is that they're now simply waiting for John Ternus to [formally be put in place](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) and as one of his first acts, [he changes the App Store rules](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/). It would send a great signal to the market and to Apple's developer community that Ternus is his own man, ready to make hard calls and make changes as needed. The precedent here would be [Satya Nadella coming into place](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) as Microsoft's CEO and immediately announcing the Office suite for iPad. Am I asking too much? Probably. It's Apple. [They're nothing if not stubborn](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/). But again, the writing is so clearly on the wall here... Apple and Ternus can turn this from a major PR headache into a major PR win! But they also may not have enough time to do that right now as again, there's a new deadline *today*! If the Supreme Court doesn't issue that longer stay, Apple will have to submit their proposal for a "fair" fee – again, presumably less than 27% lest they risk pissing off the court even more! – and that in turn will lead politicians all around the country and world to wonder why if the fair fee is 'X%' why they've been charging 30%? The answer is [actually and humorously](https://500ish.com/30-for-30-a48aafa1f766?ref=spyglass.org) because that's what *Nintendo charged third party game makers to help them make video game cartridges* for the NES back in the day. But no one wants to admit that, so instead it's 30% because that's the industry norm, [even if it was arbitrarily set by Steve Jobs](https://500ish.com/the-app-store-commandments-a867a0409dff?ref=spyglass.org) because it was working for iTunes, again, because it had worked for gaming way back when. Jobs also, of course, famously said he didn't expect the App Store to be a big money maker and instead wanted the fees to simply cover the costs of running the service. And yet here we are, nearly 20 years later, with the App Store raking in billions in profits and powering [Apple's second most-important business](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/) in Services. That's obviously [what this is all about](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/). But it's also obviously about to change... --- **Update August 14, 2026**: The Supreme Court decided against issuing a further delay and as such, [Apple had to file their proposal yesterday](https://9to5mac.com/2026/08/13/apple-proposes-commissions-of-up-to-15-for-off-app-store-purchases-in-the-us/?ref=spyglass.org). There's quite a bit in here... First and foremost, Apple proposed cutting the 30% cut they take to 15% if transactions are done on the web. You'll note that this is quite a bit less than Apple's previous proposal of 27%, which got them into trouble. It's obviously halfway between the current 0% rate that Judge Gonzalez Rogers put in place and the 30% standard. That 15% also gets cut further depending on the category of app. Here's the proposal: > • 15% for standard apps, which are subject to a 30% in-app purchase (“IAP”) commission; > > • 10% for the Video Partner Program (“VPP”), the News Partner Program (“NPP”), the Mini Apps Partner Program (“MPP”), and subscription renewals; and > > • 5% for Small Business Program apps. Unsurprisingly, [Epic has already pushed back](https://www.theverge.com/tech/979967/apple-epic-games-external-links-fees-filing?ref=spyglass.org) against the 15%, [noting that](https://x.com/EpicNewsroom/status/2088025634316407144?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) Apple themselves found that their "necessary costs" to allow app makers to route payments through the web "would be essentially zero". Apple was also forced to issue that finding and yeah, it doesn't look great! But Apple's stance on why they need to charge 15% turns to the notion that if they accepted less of a cut, it would effectively kill their IAP business, and as such, the App Store business, as it would drive pretty much all developers to use the web instead. Given that, it's probably not surprising that Apple is also [now seeking settlement talks](https://9to5mac.com/2026/08/13/apple-seeks-settlement-talks-with-epic-games-in-new-court-filing/?ref=spyglass.org)(!) with Epic over the situation. In fact, Apple tried to talk to them *before* they were forced to issue these findings and ***Epic said no***! Now you see why Apple's strategy here was perhaps flawed... Epic, of course, did end up [settling](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/) with Google, [undoubtedly because](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) they weren't nearly as hostile as Apple has been. Epic really, *really* does not like Apple as a result of [all of this](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-war/) and [clearly](https://spyglass.org/epics-feigning-floundering-to-keep-apple-under-pressure/) has been [angling](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-spotify-eu/) – [for *years* now](https://500ish.com/shall-we-play-a-game-5be4cd1ecddd?ref=spyglass.org) – to [make them pay](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/), perhaps quite literally. Apple is now trying to get the court to *force* Epic into settlement talks. And if that tactic doesn't work, Apple's proposal will go back in front of Judge Gonzalez Rogers, likely before the end of the year, to determine what the actual cut should be. Presumably she would decide on something between 0% and 15% now, but probably closer to 0% given that was her initial amount, but taking into account the 9th Circuit's ruling that Apple should be entitled to *something*. Apple is in a very dangerous spot here. Yes, this is only for web payments, but still, to Apple's point, if that cut is low enough, it could destroy IAP and thus, the App Store as we know it. And that, in turn, would destroy Apple's entire Services business as we know it. Apple's [second-biggest business](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/)! The one with the [most steady growth](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/)! So yeah, they *need* Epic to settle. [Can a CEO change](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) at Apple somehow make that happen? Might Tim Sweeney need to see other concessions? Perhaps [new leadership](https://spyglass.org/apples-oh-shit-we-fucked-up-moment/) for the App Store itself? This isn't game over, but it's close... --- **Update August 17, 2026**: And now Epic has responded to Apple's push for the judge to force settlement talks... [Epic responds to Apple’s bid for settlement talks in App Store case - 9to5MacEpic Games has filed its response to Apple’s request for the court to order settlement talks in the long-running App Store lawsuit.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/cropped-cropped-mac1-1-2ef56eea-9422-4b2f-9f4f-bf9551f1ffc0.png)9to5MacMarcus Mendes![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/epic-games-app-store-07e2dceb-b11a-49d8-b6a8-5cf33e0578b6.jpg)](https://9to5mac.com/2026/08/17/epic-responds-to-apples-bid-for-settlement-talks-in-app-store-case/?ref=spyglass.org) > Epic has now responded to Apple’s motion, stating that although the company “has been, and remains today, willing to entertain any direct approach from Apple with a serious settlement proposal that would introduce competition and benefit all developers,” it “does not believe the prospects of such settlement would be meaningfully advanced through referral to a settlement conference at this juncture.” At first that sounds promising, but the hold up – and why Epic "does not believe the prospects" – may be in the fact that they're clearly holding out for Apple to make changes for "all developers" – i.e. not just a one-off deal with Epic. That has long been [Epic's angle here](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-court/). The ball remains in Judge Gonzalez Rogers' court... --- **Update August 18, 2026**: Might there be a new wrinkle here in Apple's agreement in the EU?.. [Apple’s EU App Store ArmisticeMight it point to a path forward for the US App Store too?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-c1122942-07f0-4a58-b974-afec16aa3787.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_apple_logo_giving_a_peace_sign_--ar_43_--profile_frkb_2ceaa917-619b-45d5-9406-64f79c3dfe0c_3-1-4fac1dc7-ec63-4021-bec8-9cdbd57fe5c1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-eu-app-store-new-rules/) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Death of the 30% CutGoogle ends the Play Store insanity, putting the pressure on Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-66315724-0c52-443a-8f78-2aedc36ab995.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-5--2026--04_26_54-PM-fdbb9a3d-31bd-4dae-92ec-8e96cb34a2aa.png)](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) [App Store Changes Here to Stay with the Denial of Apple’s StayAt least for the foreseeable future, and potentially forever…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-cbbf7f8f-b6cf-4cdc-aa17-c416028043c0.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-5--2025--09_57_56-AM-1-0107b267-5d20-4462-8f6a-5eb6226e44e9.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/) [Tim Cook Chose Poorly, Now Apple Can Choose WiselyTear down the App Store wall![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-75389f5a-e5ec-4070-b440-303b366e3d88.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-8c0823a5-ac59-4a82-b375-cbcda3742e49.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) ### Predicting Google's AI Earthquake URL: https://spyglass.org/predicting-googles-ai-earthquake/ Last updated: 2026-08-13T07:23:53.000Z There have been [a few times](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) now where Alex Kantrowitz and I have discussed something on his *Big Technology Podcast* and it has happened; not just later, but sometimes *days*, [sometimes mere *hours* later](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/). As was the case with Google last week, as we devoted our last segment to talking through why the company was falling behind (again) in AI and what that might mean... [Sure enough](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/), before Alex could even hit publish on the episode, Demis Hassabis was stepping down ("up") as the head of DeepMind and Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, Oriol Vinyals, and Quoc Le – 3 of the 4 leads of Gemini, mind you – were also leaving to found a new startup focusing (at first) on what else? [RSI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org). So yeah, if [Google needed a shakeup](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/) ([again](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%89%20Is%20Google%20Behind%20In%20AI%3F%20Again%3F!)) in AI, they got it! Anyway, while Alex kicks off the episode with an emergency interlude from his vacation in Indonesia, we then get the actual episode we recorded, starting with Apple's precarious component situation. Sure, they may have looked great to Wall Street in recent weeks for [not spending hundreds of billions](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) on AI build-out CapEx, but as their earnings report made clear, there was still a downside to this moment in time. That is: they can't get enough of the components they need for their other devices because of this AI build-out, and those they can get are now insanely expensive (which they're now [forced to pass off to consumers](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/)). It's interesting to think that if Apple had spent more time and resources on the AI build out, if they wouldn't be in a better position now simply with regard to the pecking order for parts. And it's sort of wild that Tim Cook, the logistics expert, in [his final days as Apple CEO](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/), didn't see this coming... As for Alex's conspiracy theory on the price increases, **watch the margins**. But also, watch the messaging [around 'Apple Upgrade'](https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/). Speaking of CapEx, how did Microsoft manage to come out of this most recent earnings report looking so rosy? Well, certainly there's some level of AI potentially fueling cloud growth (as was the case with Amazon as well), but there's also some [clever accounting at play here](https://spyglass.org/the-capex-two-step/). And I don't mean that deceptively, I just mean it's honestly clever the way Microsoft played a hand they could play at a time when such spend matters more than anything else to Wall Street. How much does it matter? Well, Microsoft had [the *biggest*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/microsoft-eyes-history-with-490-billion-pop-in-market-value?ref=spyglass.org) *single day market cap gain in history* following the report... Anyway, how much are these numbers and growth within the Big Cloud players are simply built around Anthropic and OpenAI? I mean, *it's certainly worth asking*! And is that part of the reason why we're starting to see [Microsoft hard pivot](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/) their narrative and model ([yet again](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/))? Meanwhile, Amazon is closing out [their $50B investment](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-could-invest-50b-into-openai?ref=spyglass.org) in OpenAI ahead of when they apparently needed to... Finally, Google. What on Earth is going on? The problems [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-conference-season/) have been mounting. [Where is Gemini 3.5 Pro](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/)? Will we ever see it? It increasingly feels like "no" – it feels [a little Llama-y](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/)... And it certainly feels like a lot of [bureaucratic](https://web.getmatter.com/entry/130794091?ref=spyglass.org) in-fighting for resourcing and mindshare [internally](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/). But it also could be as simple as Demis Hassabis *not* fully being [bought into LLMs](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) being the be-all/end-all of AI and wanting to continue to push frontiers while Google overall finds themselves in this current AI dogfight around coding and whatnot which are obviously all tied to the current LLM state of the art. And [what if](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) LLMs get us to the aforementioned RSI? Anyway, the situation corrected itself! Or was corrected. Either way, look for Google to come zooming back in a few months – [again](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Google’s Mind Is Now Less DeepHistoric talent is leaving DeepMind and Google, but that may ultimately \*help\* Google’s Gemini efforts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-a8556e21-2265-46f3-9fe8-b8f9cbbbf675.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--11_13_17-PM-0363ab56-e66b-40a5-af4c-f51dfc94c5db.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/) [Google (Again) Clearly Needs to Unite Their AI ClansUm, where is Gemini 3.5 Pro?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b6048915-324f-4818-a64c-7a71d53a9e6e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/images-1-831b463d-c232-431c-a1f3-7bcaea42c171.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/) [The Market Shifts AppleApple used to bend suppliers to their will. The world has changed.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-80a4f60b-8b4f-4554-a87f-c9a668e333b3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-25--2026--11_40_24-AM-953fd572-ab88-4d3a-a9d7-ee1761629eb1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) [‘Apple as a Service’ At LastNot quite ‘iPhone Prime’ but also, almost!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-61166f47-1981-4c5f-93b3-fca76ca00942.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-29-at-12.59.22---PM-7e9a79ce-2685-4f08-b70a-8abdd3e2c1e2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/) [The CapEx Two-StepMicrosoft’s masterful management of CapExpectations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-03f7529b-cb8c-497a-9292-894f7bef6592.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-30--2026--01_59_19-PM-dac6b6d6-f5b7-4288-a91d-1c1ec894576c.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-capex-two-step/) ### Meta's Open Weight Whiplash URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai-muse-glimmer/ Last updated: 2026-08-11T13:58:19.000Z I'm old enough to remember the last time Mark Zuckerberg was [embracing "open"](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/) as [the future of AI](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/). Which is [to say](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/), I'm at least [two years old](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/). A lot has changed since the last time Meta released an open weight model – namely, seemingly *the entire team* building models for Meta. Famously, ["Llama" was put out to pasture](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) as Alexandr Wang and his Scale team [was brought in](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) to fix [what ailed those previous models](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/). That included not only [spending billions](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) on [fresh AI talent](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) and [data centers](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/), but also [setting aside](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) that notion of "open" in favor of a closed approach to AI development. Why? Because it sure seemed like that model – and those *models* – had won the day just over a year ago. To hear Meta tell it – as I'm sure we're about to *endlessly* – the company never left "open" behind, they simply did what they needed to do in order to reset their efforts and catch up, fast. And there's undoubtedly some truth to that, but also some gaslighting. If OpenAI and Anthropic were still running away with the AI game – or if Meta was in the lead – we probably wouldn't be hearing too much about "open" right now. But again, a lot has changed in the past year. Most notably, OpenAI slipped and fell behind their chief rival Anthropic. And Anthropic, in turn, has kept trying to commit seppuku to [sacrifice themselves](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) at the hands of [an angry Trump administration](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/). This, mixed with their new frontrunner status has led to an [inevitable backlash](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) against Anthropic, even though they mostly maintain their lead in models and in the all-important coding category. But the real key was China seemingly catching up to that frontier of AI. Not quite, but perhaps close enough – [closer than](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/) DeepSeek 18 months ago, and with AI in a more mature state, being "close enough" perhaps matters more now. And that's especially true given the [cost and consumption concerns](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/) that a lot of corporate America is feeling at the moment with regard to AI. If those Chinese AI models are "close enough" at a fraction of the cost of the frontier models... And while it may sound crazy to think that American companies would willingly use Chinese AI models in a time when the current administration has made it clear that China is the US's techno enemy #1, China left a door open to blur such lines with the focus on yes, open weight models. If anyone can download these models and host them elsewhere – including on the clouds of the Big Tech players in the US – what's the problem? I mean, there *are* potential problems in that no one knows exactly what went into these models to train them as they're not actually "open source", as that's not the same thing as "open weight" despite [what op-eds](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/20/open-model-ai-is-good-competition-anthropic-openai/?ref=spyglass.org) and [*New York Times* headlines](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/10/technology/meta-ai-open-source.html?ref=spyglass.org) (see below) would have you believe. Still, much as was the case with the "DeepSeek Moment", I'm not sure how much the Chinese models will [end up mattering](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/) in the end – as they're already [tweaking](https://venturebeat.com/technology/kimi-k3s-full-weights-are-here-but-theyre-open-with-a-caveat-what-enterprises-should-know?ref=spyglass.org) [their terms](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/alibaba-plans-charge-big-users-its-next-open-source-ai-model-sources-say-2026-08-07/?ref=spyglass.org) [and models](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-06/deepseek-plans-significant-price-increase-for-its-ai-services?ref=spyglass.org) in showcasing [why "open" here](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2085661729409716433?ref=spyglass.org) very much deserves the quotes – versus what the rise of such models *point to*. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/Screenshot-2026-08-10-at-9.10.24---PM-2.png) They changed the headline many hours later, so just for posterity's sake. That is: open weight models may now be a viable alternative to the closed variety and, relatedly, distillation of such models may actually *spur* innovation in the sector. That's why we saw hundreds of US companies sign on [to a letter](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) to help ensure that the US government [didn't destroy](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) this "open" path in their attempts to slow down China. Obviously, the initial batch of companies that signed on, from NVIDIA on down, were conflicted with such ideals. But it created the intended groundswell to seemingly both get the government to heel but also pressure current "closed" AI leads like OpenAI and Google to sign on. Yes, yes, both offer "open" models too, but only far less powerful varieties, [released *months* after](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/) their frontier models. That is not what China is doing. And none of this is what Anthropic wants to become the norm. (They still refuse to sign the letter despite the pressure because [they say](https://www.anthropic.com/news/position-open-weights-models?ref=spyglass.org) while they're generally okay with open models to some extent, [they're worried about](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) the [safety and security implications and ramifications](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) if the frontier goes open weight. Which many read as the company protecting their moat. But others note that this is likely [what the company actually believes](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/).) Anyway, that's a long-winded way – though about 1/10th as long [as Mark Zuckerberg's new "essay"](https://www.meta.com/thefutureisforeveryone/?ref=spyglass.org) on the topic – of saying that Meta is back in the "open" game. Again, a game they'll say they never left, but [they really did](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/). And that actually may have been a mistake, [as I noted a few weeks back](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/). But it's also probably not too late to correct as the US "open" model race still feels wide open. And without Anthropic, OpenAI, or even Google fully committing to it (again, at the frontier), Meta may have an opening here. And they're taking it. To be clear, 'Muse Glimmer' is not at the frontier. Hell, it's not even at the frontier of Meta's own current model offerings – meaning, Muse Spark 1.2, which is by most accounts a very good, [but not frontier-level model](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/). They note that Muse Spark 1.2 will also get its weights released at some point soon, but again, Glimmer is not that. Which suggests that, [as expected](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/), Meta is going to follow the new general "open" playbook, at least in the US. That is, release a model, and once it's out there in the wild for a while, then you can "open" it up. Why they didn't just wait to do this with Muse Spark if it really is that close to being "open" too, I don't know. But it seems like [they aim](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-10/meta-releases-muse-glimmer-ai-model-people-can-run-on-their-laptop?ref=spyglass.org) for Glimmer to be smaller, to the point where it can run locally on some machines. The real key will be what happens when Meta releases their *actual* frontier model, the one codenamed 'Watermelon', which many expect to be both coming soon and also competitive with said frontier. Will that too be "opened" up at some point shortly after launch? Meta isn't saying, but also, to be fair, they're not saying anything about 'Watermelon' beyond nebulously alluding to it. Because it's not actually out there yet. And talking about models before they're ready has gotten Meta in trouble before – see: Llama 'Behemoth' which no one ever did end up actually seeing in the wild. My guess would be that if 'Watermelon' really is as good as the current frontier, the weights won't be released but it will instead be used to *distill* some other Muse variant that Meta will release as an "open" model... We'll see! Regardless, it's clear that Meta, and Zuck in particular, are slamming on the gas. That's why you get a 7,000-word essay just a couple weeks after writing a decidedly more parseable version as [an op-ed in *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-ai-future-is-for-everyone-a0c24e20?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org). This memo is verbatim to that at many points. So this is like the "Director's Cut" I guess. Boy does it need an editor... Meta clearly sees "open" as a new opening here, which, yes, is ironic given that it was their initial path. But they also see openings in consumer/personal AI, especially with OpenAI [seemingly taking their eye off that ball](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) in their fight with Anthropic. As well as an opening [on the business model front](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-tokens/), where [margins are always opportunities](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/). Still unclear: can Meta make any of this pay off [this time](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/)? They seemingly have [more options now](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/), but this is all completely unproven for them... Zuck also clearly sees an opening around [the *messaging* of AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/). He wants Meta to hold the "positive AI" position. That's going to be easier [said than done](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/), quite literally. But yes, "open" is a part of that messaging. So "open" is back! No llamas this time though, sadly. ### Paramount Aims to Lower the Lowest Bar on Movie Theaters URL: https://spyglass.org/paramount-aims-to-lower-the-lowest-bar-on-movie-theaters/ Last updated: 2026-08-20T20:48:17.000Z 🔗 Paramount Will Put 30-Film Pledge in Writing to Theaters • Bloomberg You know the saying "less is more"? Well, someone needs to tell Paramount that the corollary to that is "more is less" because their strategy right now is "more is more" and it's fucking stupid. In fact, it might sink Hollywood. Or at least, the theatrical business: > Paramount Skydance has agreed to sign contracts with major theater chains guaranteeing that it will release 30 movies a year in cinemas if it acquires Warner Bros. Discovery according to people familiar with the matter. > > Paramount has offered three-year agreements to AMC Entertainment and Cineworld Group’s Regal Cinemas, the world’s two largest theater chains, requiring it to release the films exclusively in theaters for at least 45 days, according to the people, who asked to not be identified because the agreements are private. The films would also not be available to stream online for at least 90 days. On average over the past decade, it looks like Paramount has released about 10 movies a year. Warner Bros is closer to 12-14\. Fingers-and-toes math suggests to me this number combined doesn't add up to 30\. Yet somehow they're going to make it add up to 30. And the somehow isn't rocket science, it's a simple lowering of the bar to what should actually be released in theaters. Yes, those averages are somewhat skewed by the pandemic.[1](#one) But you could also argue that the pandemic forced a (over) correction on the industry because too many films were being released in theaters when you consider the world of streaming we were about to enter. That is to say, the market has changed, and it actually wasn't the pandemic that changed it. Like so many other facets of business, it simply accelerated trends that were already happening. The reality in 2026 is this: not every movie should have full-on theatrical distribution. In fact, most should not. It's not about "deserving" it from an artistic perspective, it's about it making sense from a business perspective. Does it make any sense to release a movie into wide theatrical distribution if it's going to flop? No. Not for the studio and not for the filmmaker. Would it be better to put that movie on a streaming service to [find an audience](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/)? For many movies, yes. And it's not black and white. Maybe you do a limited release for some movies. Maybe others only get a two-to-three week run before going to streaming. Maybe some go to streaming *first*, find that audience, then go to theaters (a la *K Pop Demon Hunters*). Maybe show finales do as well (a la *Stranger Things*). There are just so many options when you consider theaters as a piece of the pie, not the entire pie. But that's not what Paramount Skydance is proposing, of course. They're promising at least 30 movies in theaters for at least 45 days with at least 90 days before they hit streaming. That's just silly in 2026. And it's so stupid because it's the *exact opposite* of what [they should be doing](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) at [the exact wrong time](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) to be doing it. Yes, the box office is [booming](https://spyglass.org/spider-man-box-office-record/) right now, but it's also a ([predictable](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/)) pent-up fluke of major releases. Most years are not like this and newsflash: *most years going forward will not be like this*. And even this, relatively speaking, isn't *that* impressive. These are "record" numbers largely because of *inflation*, not because Hollywood has suddenly cracked some code. So Paramount promising to release 30 movies a year in theaters is just going to lead to... more movies that shouldn't be released in theaters getting released in theaters. And that's going to exacerbate the problems theaters have been facing over the past, I don't know, 50 years or so. I'm not going to say "shitty" movies because that's not really even the problem here. It's simply that increasingly, there are [types of movies](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/) that do well in theaters – yes, [big budget blockbusters](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/), but also [not always](https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/), and also not [exclusively](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/) – but there are also many types of movies, [even excellent movies](https://500ish.com/michael-clayton-in-the-age-of-netflix-b4857e003997?ref=spyglass.org), that simply don't work in theaters any longer. Sure, you can say [that sucks](https://500ish.com/once-upon-a-time-in-a-cinema-c5991e1b7fe3?ref=spyglass.org). But it's also reality. And so not just forcing them into theaters but *forcing them there for 45 days* is not just silly, it's stupid. It's going to lead not to better box office results but more empty theaters. Obviously. It's true that [Netflix had also committed to the 45 day window](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) to try to [win](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) Warner Bros. But the key here is *quantity*. You could certainly [make the case](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) that the best movies *should* have such an exclusive window in theaters. But you cannot make the case that *more movies than ever should*. You just can't. Again, this is so fucking stupid. We all know why Paramount is doing it – to try to seal the deal! But it's so [obviously](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) going to backfire that it's almost farcical. Get ready for [*Dear Santa*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dear%5FSanta%5F%282024%5Ffilm%29?ref=spyglass.org) 2 and 3 and 4\. In theaters. For 45 days. Even if [no one](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dear-santa-2024/?ref=spyglass.org) shows up to watch. --- **Update**: Rich Greenfield of LightShed Partners pinged me on [my tweet on the matter](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2086529502608248980?ref=spyglass.org) and points to [their report](https://lightshedtmt.com/2026/08/06/four-new-developments-in-the-paramount-wbd-merger-litigation-worth-paying-attention-to/?ref=spyglass.org) that actually, Paramount and Warner Bros, per the current theatrical scheduling, were already likely *above* releasing 30 movies next year. Meaning, of course, that David Ellison is making a promise that actually may be easy to keep, at least next year; it looks like sandbagging. That's interesting, but my only pushback – well, putting aside the notion that the overall company will have to cut costs when/if they actually merge to try to service the massive amount of debt being raised for the deal – there would be that Paramount is in the middle of ramping production post-Skydance deal while Warner is ramping post-killer box office returns last year (which, by the way, [they're not currently replicating this year](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/warner-bros-discovery-q2-earnings-supergirl-the-bride-bomb-1236665002/?ref=spyglass.org)). Which is to say, I suspect their 2027 slates could be a fluke too – in volume, not necessarily in success – and wouldn't expect 30+ movies to the "natural" slate going forward. (See: above.) But it now will be if they merge! Because it's in the contracts! What could go wrong? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Hollywood’s Brand New Day?Predictably awesome box office results also require caveats galore…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-43c674b9-42b1-424e-afc2-95b10bd77f7b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Spider-Man-Brand-New-Day-Destin-Daniel-Cretton-2026-Far-Out-Magazine-1-d3ac706b-b6b1-485a-9f25-76eacf4137f4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/spider-man-box-office-record/) [Netflix’s Hard 45With Ted Sarandos’ 45-day theatrical commit for movies, he’s aiming to win the box office, Hollywood, and the Warner Bros deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-166e226d-3ee3-4e8c-87ee-804235d993e1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--03_36_53-PM-2-1929a2c6-682a-4a0c-a152-3a6392dccd12.png)](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) [Fixing the Windows in a Broken HomeTheatrical windows are back in place. Hopefully more open this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8ac09e98-8639-4653-8e6d-61eae2b8fd29.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DJDvny-VwAAN1mb-54e3aeab-c0b8-47ec-854f-2d9b55becf28.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) --- 1 Also by the notion of a true "wide" release versus the smaller releases they each do via other sub-brand studio imprints. [↩](#) ### OpenAI’s Device All About the 'O'? URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-ai-device/ Last updated: 2026-08-07T15:49:04.000Z I should have known. At this point, I've spent a [handful](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) of posts trying to figure out what OpenAI's first true device may look like. While I think I nailed [the general idea early on](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) – a voice-first, non-wearable smart speaker without a screen – the actual *design* for such a device [has eluded me](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). Good thing [Mark Gurman has started](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-06/what-is-openai-s-device-a-doughnut-shaped-speaker-that-costs-over-300?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4NjA0NjY3NSwiZXhwIjoxNzg2NjUxNDc1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSjlNQ01UOU5KTFUwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJDNEVEQ0FFMUZBMDU0MEJFQTI0QTlGMjExQzFFOTA4MCJ9.pj0oCNz7Ez90rn67tMWib-ed2PxcUAhAG2-hlVQ%5FDRg&leadSource=article-gifting&ref=spyglass.org) getting OpenAI leaks to go along with the Apple ones:[1](#one) > A highly anticipated new device from OpenAI will have a unique look, complete with moving parts that help give it personality, and likely cost more than $300, according to people familiar with the matter. > > The product — essentially a smart speaker without a display — will be shaped like a doughnut that’s roughly the size of a hockey puck, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the work is confidential. The idea is to make the device easy to carry around the home with one hand. A doughnut. You know what else is shaped like a doughnut? An 'O'. I'm probably reading too much into this, in fact I'm sure I am, but what the hell, it's a Friday and I'm getting ready to leave on holiday. What if, as silly as it may seem, the design of OpenAI's device is derived from OpenAI's name itself? This isn't totally out of left field, [back in 2024 I wrote about](https://spyglass.org/openai-o-logo/) the notion that OpenAI was said to be undergoing a big rebrand all centered around the 'O' in their name. Obviously their logo is already a bit O-like, but there was some chatter that they could go full circle, quite literally. Perhaps [some internal backlash](https://fortune.com/2024/09/20/openai-staffers-unhappy-new-logo-design-ominous/?ref=spyglass.org) killed it, or perhaps it was never a serious design sprint. Either way, the letter 'O' was clearly top of mind for them. A few months before that report, the company [introduced the GPT-4o model](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) to much fanfare. There, the 'o' stood for 'omni' – as in that was their first model that fully ventured outside of text. Notably, [including voice capabilities](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/). Voice, [you say](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/)... A few months later, we got 'o1' the first reasoning model. [I still wish](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) OpenAI would have gone with the codename for that model – ['Strawberry'](https://spyglass.org/apple-numerology/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%93%20Nearly%20Ripe,and%20controversy...) – but again, they were clearly all about the 'o'. And now perhaps they are once again, only with hardware. [The day after](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) I wrote about the potential new 'O' logo, [news broke](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/21/technology/jony-ive-apple-lovefrom.html?ref=spyglass.org) that Jony Ive's LoveFrom design studio was working with OpenAI on some sort of newfangled device for the AI age. About eight months later, 'io' – there's that pesky 'o' again – the team specifically working on that project which spun out from LoveFrom, [merged with OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/). Adding yet another 'o' to the mix. Anyway, a doughnut-shaped device the size of a hockey puck sounds a bit strange unless you consider that it's supposed to be portable. Not necessarily to take outside (though maybe there will be some accessories for that?) but around the house. Longtime Apple watchers will know that the company has [long been obsessed with handles](https://blog.adafruit.com/2020/08/26/apple-design-history-handles-a-thread-apple-design-apple-elirousso/?ref=spyglass.org). While it famously [started with the Macintosh](https://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/mac30/?ref=spyglass.org) and continued with the [Apple IIc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%5FIIc?ref=spyglass.org), Ive seemed to double down on them with the iMac and iBook. The [PowerMac G4 Cube](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power%5FMac%5FG4%5FCube?ref=spyglass.org) had a pop-up handle. And the [Mac Pro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac%5FPro?ref=spyglass.org) got them too. So when I hear "doughnut shaped device" my mind immediately thinks that it's also a way to *handle* the device. Because that shape is a natural handle. [My mind was already drifting towards a handle](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) when the reports last month had a few details about the smart speaker elements of the device. But I didn't consider that *the entire thing* could be a handle of sorts. That could make sense! And would certainly differentiate it from the other "smart speakers" out there.[2](#two) Of course, [as I wrote last month](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/), I'm also of the mindset that this device won't be framed as a smart speaker at all, but rather as [a newfangled computer](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) for the AI age. Or perhaps a companion – as in, a robot. [John Gruber wrote about the same notion today at *Daring Fireball* on this latest report](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/08/06/gurman-openai-device?ref=spyglass.org): > This doesn’t sound like a “smart speaker” with lights, moving parts, cameras, and other sensors. It sounds like a robot companion, and a robot companion obviously needs a speaker, amongst its other essential features. It’s like calling R2-D2 “a smart speaker” — it wouldn’t be wrong but it’s missing the point. (You could technically call the iPhone “a smart speaker”.) What the io device seems to be missing is autonomous movement. So you need to carry it around like a mogwai, rather than it following you around or going places on its own. I couldn’t give two shits about an OpenAI “smart speaker” if the point is just to play music and podcasts, but a handheld cross between R2-D2 and C-3PO, *that* could be fucking cool. > > It’s a pet, it sounds like. A revolutionary pet, if they pull it off. And people love their pets. People hear "robot' and immediately think of a *humanoid* robot – a sort of C-3PO. But the first actual robots we're going to get in our homes, at least at any scale, aren't going to be Tesla's Optimus, they're going to be super simple and perhaps even stationary – well, without an assist from you – robots. Yes, yes, we've long had Roombas,[3](#three) but I mean robots you can actually [talk to and interact with in a meaningful way](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/). Yes, the first batch of smart speakers are now [getting there](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/) thanks to their LLM upgrades, but they don't evoke any real emotional response yet in usage. It sure sounds like OpenAI's device will be aiming for that: > OpenAI expects users to rely on the smart speaker throughout the day. It will work similarly to the company’s ChatGPT voice mode on smartphone apps, but with more advanced models for humanlike interactivity. The device is designed to learn more about a user over time, letting it tailor conversations and act more like a real person. > > The circle-shaped device will include parts that move on their own, according to the people. That will help show when it’s responding and interacting with the user. The goal is to make the object feel more alive than today’s stationary speaker products. The moving parts element was also included in the reports last month about the device. And that's why, when Apple's OpenAI lawsuit hit, I immediately [thought](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/) that it might not actually be about *current* devices but [future ones](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/). Because [by far the most compelling future device I've seen](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) out of Apple's research department was this sort of weird, anthropomorphized lamp. Yes, like the Pixar lamp, [Luxo Jr](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxo%5FJr.%5F%28character%29?ref=spyglass.org). That type of device – which, to be clear, is still just a prototype in a lab somewhere within Apple – reminds me much more of what OpenAI may be going for here versus, say, a HomePod. Or even [the](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/) [forthcoming](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) '[HomePad](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/)' [thing](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/). So yeah, a doughnut/handle/'O' shape makes some sense. I don't know where you put the camera on such a device – perhaps it's meant to "stand"? – or where the moving pieces come into play? I keep envisioning little arms/nubs that wiggle to convey something, but who knows. But I feel like this device may be more interesting than it sounds on paper. Because I feel like it may be the first [real robot](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/) in our homes. *An actual, physical chatbot*, [as it were](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/). Bringing the 'O' to home. **One more thing:** $300 to $400? That sounds pretty premium. Also very Jony Ive. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-7--2026--02_56_18-PM.png) --- 1 These leaks seem especially interesting when you consider that both note that OpenAI isn't worried about crossing any of Apple's patents with this device. It sure *feels* like OpenAI would very much like that notion out there. But again, what about the *unreleased* products Apple is working on? Such projects sure seem to be a focal point of the messages shared (on both sides) for the lawsuit... [↩](#) 2 Lawsuit aside, presumably OpenAI wants nothing to do with being compared to Alexa/HomePod/etc with this device. While those sold well – at least Amazon's Echo devices – [they also seem comically outdated and rudimentary in our current AI world](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/). [↩](#) 3 [Sorry Lina Khan!](https://spyglass.org/mopping-the-floor-with-antitrust/) [↩](#) ### If You're Not Paying for the Tokens... URL: https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-tokens/ Last updated: 2026-08-06T16:22:37.000Z The most interesting element in Meta's newly announced 'Muse Code' product isn't the product itself, it's the model. Not the AI model, which is an updated variant of their 'Muse Spark' ([non-flagship](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/)), but the *business* model. [Per *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-releases-coding-agent-to-compete-with-openai-and-anthropic-af87b517?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta’s Muse Code agent has two price tiers: one that’s the same as its general Muse Spark model and another that is less than one-10th the cost. To access the less-expensive tier, which costs 20 cents per million output tokens, users must agree to provide feedback to help improve the agent. Tokens are the basic unit of artificial-intelligence computing. Yes, you read that correctly. If you opt-in to having your data used to improve the models, you get more than a 10x discount on using those models. Actually, depending on the token type, quite a bit more! If my math is right, it's *a 75x discount* on cached input tokens. That is... sort of wild. And also sort of brilliant. As everyone knows, Meta is coming from behind in AI after having to [restart](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) their efforts. And the fruits of such labor have been [pretty good to date](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/), but also still not frontier-level. And there's some concern that they won't be able to get to frontier level because that line keeps moving, pushed by the incumbents, Anthropic and OpenAI. I mean, [not only has xAI struggled](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) to catch up even after billions spent, [*even Google is struggling to keep up*](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/). Part of the issue is obviously that the leaders simply have so much more usage that they've reached a kind of virtuous cycle, not unlike Google did back in the day with Search. Microsoft and Yahoo poured billions into trying to compete, but they simply could never catch up ([let alone make Google "dance"](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/)). What's one way to spur usage and try to break customers away from the leaders? Well, a better product can work. But beyond not being so simple, that often takes time, enough time that if it starts working, the incumbents are likely to copy you. So what's a better way? Price. Mark Zuckerberg [has made no secret](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) of the fact that he plans to undercut those competitors to get back into the race. And given the pressure both Anthropic and OpenAI are under to show improvements in their economics as [they angle to go public](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) means that a full-on price war is going to be a problem for them. Meta, as an already public and profitable – well, at least before all [that AI spend](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) came along – company can afford to undercut, quite literally. And so their margins are Meta's opportunity. But this is actually even more interesting than that relatively simple and straightforward playbook. Currently, many businesses are having [the AI cost come-to-Jesus moment](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/). This includes both small businesses and even Big Tech. Many are learning the hard way just how fast AI costs can spiral out of control. As such, we're seeing a pivot in the messaging around AI for businesses from maximizing usage to cost controls. [Microsoft is leading the charge here](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/), but Meta is right there too. Sure, this is [easier](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20Satya%20Nadella%27s%20%22Frontier%20Ecosystem%22) to do when you don't have an actual frontier model to sell, but that doesn't mean it's not a good angle. And while Microsoft is focused on being a router between any and all models (well, aside from maybe Google's) so customers can make up their own mind on costs, Meta is here with a new model – again, a new *business* model. This also taps into yet one more element being talked up right now against the 'Big AI' incumbents: customer data. Palantir's Alex Karp is [leading this charge](https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/03/after-killer-quarter-palantir-ceo-alex-karp-calls-ai-industry-marxist/?ref=spyglass.org), but Microsoft's Satya Nadella is right there with him. The argument is essentially: you'd be crazy to give your data over to the Big AI players. You're giving them free rein to use that data to train their models *and you're paying them for the privilege*! Never mind that this is fairly overblown given that there are some data protections in place around training and data security and what not, but the high-level point remains. And it does lead to the flip-side question, the one Meta is now trying to answer: if you were paid, would you be open to letting one of the AI model makers use your data? By "paid" I of course mean, given that massive discount on token usage. Still, it's an interesting trade off. It's one that many big businesses can't make for security reasons. But individuals and perhaps small businesses can probably live with such a choice. At least, that's what Meta is trying to find out. And actually this also plays into yet *another* trend at the moment: [the push](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) to keep the Chinese "open" models in play in the US market. Why? Well aside from the whole open weight debate, they're simply so much cheaper to use at the moment. Granted, [there are already signs this may be shifting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-06/deepseek-plans-significant-price-increase-for-its-ai-services?ref=spyglass.org). But probably not so far so as to be close to what the incumbents are charging for their frontier models. Per *WSJ*: > Claude Code and Codex come bundled in pricing plans that cost roughly $20 a month, with more expensive plans for increased usage. Exceeding the usage cap switches the user to pay-as-you-go rates. Rates per million output tokens range from $12 for GPT-5.6 Terra and $30 for Sol, with Claude Sonnet 5 at $10 and Opus 5 at $25. > > Meta’s new coding agent is priced roughly on par with models from China, such as DeepSeek, that cost as little as 18 cents per million output tokens. OpenAI has also slashed prices on older models, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, which dropped from $6 to $1.20 per million tokens. In other words, without the data opt-in Meta's Muse Spark price, at $1.25/million (input) and $4.25/million (output), is priced fairly in line with the American competition (again, for the non-"flagship" models), winning in some cases, losing in others. But where things get really interesting is with that data opt-in. Because now we're talking about $0.10/million (input) and $0.20/million (output). Yes, 10 and 20 *cents*. Again, that's roughly inline with DeepSeek (which is apparently [in the process of raising their prices](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-06/deepseek-plans-significant-price-increase-for-its-ai-services?ref=spyglass.org)). Granted, this is all to use Meta's new Muse Code product (and API), but there's no reason such prices – and the business model – couldn't translate to their broader Meta AI suite as well. The company is [in the process](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/) of trying to figure out how best to [monetize](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) that element of the business. And if it does, will it pressure OpenAI and Anthropic to offer the same kind of deal? That will be a painful pill to swallow as they're currently getting such data for "free" (but yes, there are ways to turn such rights off or restrict them). And yes, OpenAI does grant higher token limits if you remain opted-in to letting your data help train their models. But if Meta's token discount trade-off idea takes off... You can't help but be reminded of the famous line around advertising-based business models, "If you're not paying for the product, *you are the product*." Here, the equivalent is sort of, "if you're not paying for the tokens, you are the tokens" – meaning, the trade-off to get those tokens for "free" (or insanely cheap) is that you're giving up *your* inputs to help train those models. Of course, with many (but certainly not all) advertising-based models, "free" really is free. With AI, at least to date, free is free up until a certain point and/or capability, at which point you have to pay. If you squint, you can see a path forward here, where the data trade-off perhaps keeps and expands free usage, but also makes the paid tiers (or pay-as-you-go token usage) cheaper. The issue is that whereas with advertising-based businesses, the advertisers are paying the companies, with AI data sharing, there is no actual money coming in from that alone. You can certainly argue there's still value in that training data, but just how much and if it will always be constant is a question. And, of course, that alone wouldn't be enough to help AI companies actually pay for all of this. Again, there's no actual money coming in from those data rights, simply (potentially) less going out. So the model would have to be some sort of hybrid of data-supported free tier, data-supported paid tier, non-data-supported higher paid tier and perhaps even advertising to augment all of them. [I've been skeptical](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) about advertising working well alongside at least our current AI products. And certainly that it could ever work as well as it does with Google Search and/or Facebook/Instagram. But what if it simply needs to *augment* that data "payment" and/or that actual payment to keep the whole system working in a sustainable manner? You can see a path to such business models supporting the training and usage of such AI models. There would be trade-offs, for sure, but to truly scale AI, I'm not sure it's the worst idea. Let's see where it gets Meta. 👇 ****Heading back on the road, but plenty of writing from the past couple of weeks to keep you busy... 🍻** [Google’s Mind Is Now Less DeepHistoric talent is leaving DeepMind and Google, but that may ultimately \*help\* Google’s Gemini efforts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-738bcdc3-7c91-4a8a-ba0f-20d42671039f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--11_13_17-PM-1e40d5b0-3329-4e14-96f4-ea5fb06b6107.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/) [Microsoft’s Many Aborted AI Takeoffs with CopilotCan Microsoft win by selling pick-your-own model and data sovereignty in an AI Austerity Era?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-7230413d-9845-4d76-845b-ec5a72a92d64.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--03_14_53-PM-6dec054e-1c6c-45b7-8183-2730bea00b8c.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/) [OpenAI Shows Some ReceiptsBut will publishing these specific messages be enough to stop Apple’s real goal here: legal discovery?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1ce7795e-2a4a-40be-b529-c24299b66f26.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-4--2026--02_50_23-PM-c3aeee62-6f38-4229-bd50-7a6afa851c23.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/) [What if Anthropic is Right?What if we’re dangerously close to tripping into oblivion?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-69d79876-50a2-46f8-af64-d9da1e94275f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-3--2026--09_26_21-PM-c1e9155d-d161-4517-8a84-570412e15f9b.png)](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/) [‘Apple as a Service’ At LastNot quite ‘iPhone Prime’ but also, almost!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6db7f2a8-9662-4803-a791-5a1787358c82.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-29-at-12.59.22---PM-42a5651a-cd23-4b29-b1db-14a8235645db.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/) [YouTube “Hackquires” PeacockA rather brilliant move, perhaps on both sides! Sorry, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-eb55df3e-aec4-4675-80a2-2fc425d74cfc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-27--2026--11_16_41-PM-3661dbc0-97e2-486a-9188-6103c0c1c292.png)](https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/) [Thoughts on “Open” ModelsThe open letter on open weights feels familiar yet different…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-d7180e03-b997-44b9-b19b-d72cd79ac553.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-26--2026--10_26_35-PM-a23fa719-f5e7-49a3-89e4-3be659bdb3e0.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) ### Google’s Mind Is Now Less Deep URL: https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/ Last updated: 2026-08-07T10:06:29.000Z To me, at least until we have more actual reporting on the matter, the most interesting element of [the Google bombshells today](https://www.techmeme.com/260805/p26?ref=spyglass.org#a260805p26) is simply the timing. Just Jeff Dean leaving Google would obviously be a massive story by itself. I mean, he's been there almost 27 years. He was employee #30\. As everything you read today will repeat, he was not just vital, but *instrumental* to [a lot of what made – and *makes* – Google, well, Google](https://research.google/people/jeff/?&type=google&ref=spyglass.org). He's one of just two Google "Senior Fellows" – the company's highest technical honor.[1](#one) Of course, the *other* Google Senior Fellow, [Sanjay Ghemawat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanjay%5FGhemawat?ref=spyglass.org), *is also leaving*. Less well-known externally, but just as critical to the history of the company (and industry) for his technical work alongside Dean over decades, he's now joining his compatriot in [forming a new startup](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/technology/google-researchers-ai-startup.html?unlocked%5Farticle%5Fcode=1.3FA.mlf-.8hYfKBMJEvf7&smid=url-share&ref=spyglass.org). So yes, just news of his departure alone would also be massive. But together, [as Steven Levy so colorfully puts it](https://www.wired.com/story/jeff-dean-google-discovery-loop-startup/?ref=spyglass.org): "that’s like Mick Jagger and Keith Richards ditching the Rolling Stones to start a new band." But those two are also joined by two other seemingly critical people to Google's AI efforts in Oriol Vinyals, the VP of research at DeepMind (and a technical lead for Gemini), and Quoc Le, a cofounder of Google Brain. Both were famously [co-authors of a 2014 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.3215?ref=spyglass.org) about scaling data for pre-training AI models – one of the key papers for the foundation of LLMs. The other co-author? [One Ilya Sutskever](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/ai-with-reasoning-power-will-be-less-predictable-ilya-sutskever-says-2024-12-14/?ref=spyglass.org). \[*As an aside, sort of harsh that* [*Sundar Pichai's note*](https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/next-chapter-ai-momentum/?ref=spyglass.org) *calls out Dean and Ghemawat but not Vinyals and Le? Then again, a lot of senior people have been leaving Google recently... Which leads me to...*\] These departures were announced *the same day* that it was announced that Demis Hassabis would be stepping back – sorry ["stepping up"](https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/2085033425736745093?ref=spyglass.org) or ["aside"](https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-ai?ref=spyglass.org)? – from his day-to-day work at DeepMind and into a more nebulous and higher minded role as Alphabet's Chief Scientist (though also still leading day-to-day at [Isomorphic Labs](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/?ref=spyglass.org), his *other* Alphabet project where he's CEO). I mean, what is going on at Google?! The answer, at least in what you read right now, is perhaps less dire than it may seem on the surface. Dean and team, after collective decades on the inside, seemingly wanted to try their hands at a startup in the hottest space during the hottest time to have a startup: the AI Boom. And they seemingly picked the hottest current sector to start with: [recursive self-improvement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, RSI is the new AGI, [at least until RSI *leads* to AGI](https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/). Maybe. One day. Anyway, on the DeepMind side, everything you read suggests that Hassabis had already effectively handed off day-to-day operations to DeepMind SVP Koray Kavukcuoglu. The fact that Kavukcuoglu was (and will remain) Google's 'Chief AI Architect' – a title which [he may or may not have received](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-11/meta-hires-top-researchers-from-google-sesame-for-new-ai-lab?ref=spyglass.org) when a certain Mark Zuckerberg came calling with [a "Godfather" offer](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) – lessens any blow to actual operations even further. He already reported directly to Pichai. He will continue to report to Pichai. At the same time, *he will not be the new CEO of DeepMind* – because no one is getting that title. Because DeepMind is now clearly going to be run less autonomously and more as a part of Google's overall AI efforts.[2](#two) And that's probably *a good thing*, to be honest. Because after already having to course correct when they fell behind in AI once, well, *it sure* [*seemed*](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%89%20Is%20Google%20Behind%20In%20AI%3F%20Again%3F!) *to be happening again*. The [reporting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/google-gemini-launch-delayed-as-tech-falls-short-of-internal-goals?ref=spyglass.org) there this time points [less to timidity](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) and more the usual corporate in-fighting and bureaucracy. Google always has too many cooks in the kitchen, but the actual chef can't seem to keep them corralled and on the mission to make the meal. Because there were also too many chefs! That's why we used to get a dozen chat apps, many of which are half-baked. And now a dozen AI coding projects. Hopefully Kavukcuoglu has the mandate to [unite the cooks](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/). And to get the meal prepped and plated. We'll see. But what remains *wild* to me is that all of these departures were *announced at once*. Couldn't Google convince either Hassabis or Dean's team to wait a week or two to blunt the impact – certainly on the market, but also internally? Maybe something was leaking. Or maybe they decided that packaging them together would actually help soften the blow versus the alternative. Because the alternative not only includes all of the above people, but also includes Noam Shazeer, [unexpectedly jumping ship](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/) a couple months ago – to join OpenAI, no less. And John Jumper – another Nobel Prize winner at Google alongside Hassabis[3](#three) – john-jumping ship, to join Anthropic, no less. And [Peter Norvig](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter%5FNorvig?ref=spyglass.org) – Google’s head of research for the past 25 years – [heading to Recursive Superintelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/recursive-superintelligence-funding-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org), working on, you-know-what. You add all this up and it doesn't look just like a trend, it looks like an exodus. A brain bleed the likes we perhaps have never seen in such a short amount of time. So yeah, had we gotten hit with Dean, Ghemawat, Vinyals, and Le – followed by Hassabis (even yes, with him technically staying, but in a new, less day-to-day role), it would have actually seemed even more catastrophic. Like Google couldn't stop the bleeding. Better to rip the band-aid off, perhaps? Regardless, it's still an optics nightmare. I mean, these people were just on stage together [a couple months ago](https://x.com/ShanuMathew93/status/2085048493589004534?ref=spyglass.org) talking about the future of AI at Google as three of the four co-leads of Gemini. Now they're all gone – except for Kavukcuoglu. Again, I think there's a way to read this that is not actually catastrophic and could actually end up as *a good thing* for the company and the AI efforts overall. Well, at least in so far as you think the need to productize and commercialize AI is vital to Google right now, with research and a push beyond LLMs (areas which have always [clearly](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) interested Hassabis far more) taking a bit of a backseat. It's going to be hard for people to see this right now. I mean, just look at today's headlines matched with the other headlines about the departures and the fact that Google has clearly flubbed the Gemini 3.5 Pro model and... yikes. But the flip side is that things seemingly weren't going great with the status quo so... a shakeup can be a good thing sometimes. You hate to lose talent, let alone *historic* talent, but the way forward is also likely to be paved with new technology and new talent. Now Google needs to rally the troops to ensure they don't lose even more. And that's probably what today's announcements were about. Take the lumps quickly, make it all seem quite orderly, and get everyone back to the kitchen. It's time to cook. **One more thing:** Where is Google co-founder Sergey Brin in all of this? For all the reports about him being back and fully re-engaged around AI, interesting that he's not mentioned in any of these reports... **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a general partner at their venture fund, GV. Though I've been gone for a couple years now and have no inside information. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* --- 1 Cue the ["these go to 11"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xgx4k83zzc&ref=spyglass.org) jokes as that's the level inside Google at which a "Senior Fellow" sits. Again, there were two of them yesterday. Now there are zero. [↩](#) 2 Will this lead to more retention issues? We'll see... [↩](#) 3 Fun fact: there were actually *three* before Jumper left, with Michel Devoret, [the 2025 Nobel Prize winner in Physics](https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-announcements/googler-michel-devoret-awarded-the-nobel-prize-in-physics/?ref=spyglass.org), leading up Google's quantum computing efforts. [↩](#) ### Microsoft's Many Aborted AI Takeoffs with Copilot URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-ai-strategy/ Last updated: 2026-08-05T18:55:51.000Z Satya Nadella was going to make Google dance. It was [February of 2023](https://www.theverge.com/23589994/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-bing-chatgpt-google-search-ai?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) and Microsoft's CEO was [feeling confident](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) that the overhaul of Bing, now powered by OpenAI's models, was going to [change the search game](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/). To be fair, it sort of did. But only in so far as it was one of a number of things that perhaps [kicked Google into gear](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) to eventually disrupt themselves with their own [overhaul of Search](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/), powered by their Gemini models. Of course, the far larger kick in the ass came from ChatGPT itself and not Bing's variant. Microsoft's version [became more famous](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) for suggesting that reporters leave their spouses and getting [quickly reined in](https://500ish.com/from-samantha-to-dolores-9394312dd4f5?ref=spyglass.org). Soon afterwards, ChatGPT would go on to reign supreme in AI and Microsoft was [back to the drawing board](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/)... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI Shows Some Receipts URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/ Last updated: 2026-08-05T15:34:56.000Z Well, we've established one thing: there are perhaps too many people with the name 'Chang' that work at both OpenAI and Apple. I mean, that's really the connecting thread in the messages that [OpenAI has now published publicly](https://openai.com/index/apple-is-getting-this-wrong/?ref=spyglass.org) to defend themselves against [Apple's lawsuit](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) (and hoping to halt a would-be discovery process, which is [clearly Apple's bigger angle here](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/)).[1](#one) In both the iMessages posted between (former Apple employee and current OpenAI employee) Chang Liu and an unnamed current (at least at the time) Apple employee and in the emails posted between Apple outside counsel, Gabriel Gross and OpenAI’s General Counsel Che Chang, naming mix-ups play a central role. [We already knew this about the emails](https://spyglass.org/apple-hopes-this-email-found-openai-well/) thanks to [reporting by *NBC News*](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/apple/apple-openai-lawsuit-suit-trade-product-hardware-email-sam-altman-rcna587376?ref=spyglass.org) a few weeks ago. This just seemingly confirms that what happened is that Apple's outside counsel Gross, got mixed up when corresponding with an OpenAI employee named *Wang* and accidentally emailed an OpenAI employee named *Chang* in a follow-up response. It just so happens that the Chang here is actually Che Chang, who just so happens to be OpenAI's *General Counsel*. So yeah, that's never a great mistake to make, especially for a lawyer sending legal documents, but extra especially when the mixup involves the *GC* of the other company. But actually, reading between the lines of these messages, it seems Gross *did intend to email Che Chang* at least in that first correspondence at 5:53pm. The redactions obfuscate this, but Gross suggests that the 5:53pm email was *intended for Chang*, but the follow-up one at 6:07pm (actually 6:06pm, but I digress) was meant for Wang. Given the emails, it reads like Gross emailed Chang to discuss the situation about Wang (and included the letter sent to him alongside other documents seemingly related to Apple information being mishandled). He then followed-up with Chang 13 minutes later, *but meant to message Wang*, because the two had seemingly just had a phone call. The fact that he still addresses him as "Mr. Chang" (when he should be addressing "Mr. Wang") just makes this all the more confusing (likely because he was replying to the wrong thread – how amazing would it be if AI auto-inserted that greeting?). But that's seemingly what happened. But again, the fact that Chang is not some other random OpenAI employee but instead *OpenAI's GC* clearly sent this mistake in a new and interesting direction. OpenAI's lawyer was clearly like "what the fuck is this?" and quickly emails Apple's actual in-house legal team to see if it's legit or some sort of weird phishing expedition. And if it is legit, he immediately seeks to get Gross removed from the account "given this behavior". Gross emails Chang the following day to explain the mix-up, and then Apple's in-house legal team does the day after that to confirm Gross is legitimate and noting that he should have already sent an email explaining the error. And that's that. At least, that's the last email OpenAI shared here. And from their preamble, that's the last correspondence. OpenAI notes (twice) that they believed that Apple was "resolving any issues", but that was just the wording from Gross – again, the outside counsel – to Chang, so it seems a bit misleading to frame that as Apple closing out the matter entirely. But at the same time, the person named "Wang" is not a part of Apple's actual lawsuit, filed months later, *so it is weird for Apple* to use this back-and-forth as the framing for that lawsuit. Also adding to the confusion here is that *another* Chang – *Chang Liu* – is one of the two key figures in the lawsuit filed by Apple, but seemingly has nothing to do with the email back and forth here. Instead, it's this other former Apple/current OpenAI employee named "Wang" who seemingly was being monitored for the same or similar Apple information handling/mishandling issues that Chang Liu is being accused of. Got it? Because I barely do. The fact that Apple framed this whole mix-up as OpenAI not responding to their initial inquiry is... not great. It does look like they were responding – well, at least Wang – and that at least that issue was being resolved. Apple is seemingly framing Che Chang not responding to actually talk with Gabriel Gross (in that first email) as the non-response bit, but again, that was sort of Apple's own fault! Well, their outside counsel's at least. At the very least, it gave OpenAI an opening to not respond to the actual issue. But they probably still should have?! As OpenAI writes today: > Apple had claimed that they contacted OpenAI in February and that we didn’t respond. They now admit that their outside lawyers emailed the wrong person after confusing two Asian last names—only after we brought this to their attention. Apple also claimed they had a discussion with our General Counsel, which they now concede never happened. But they again hide the fact that they never raised the specific allegations in this lawsuit at that time, and that they in fact told us that they were “resolving any issues”. We then heard nothing for five months until they sued. In their latest filing, Apple tries hard to spin this sequence of events, but you can just read the emails for yourself [here⁠](https://openai.com/index/apple-is-getting-this-wrong/?ref=spyglass.org#email-correspondence). This reads like a fairly disingenuous retelling of events given the emails OpenAI shared. And the company has some history of [being slippery](https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/) in this regard.[2](#two) At the same time, the next paragraph from OpenAI reads like a decidedly more fair and level-headed assessment of the situation (given the messages): > Apple accuses Chang Liu of accessing Apple confidential information after leaving the company, but only now admits that Apple employees reached out to him and asked for his help to locate this information (you can read the messages [here⁠](https://openai.com/index/apple-is-getting-this-wrong/?ref=spyglass.org#messages)). Apple now tries to shift the blame to “residual access”, but they also don’t disclose that this is a common issue with Apple which is caused by them failing to properly manage system access when people leave. What that means in practice is that former employees who are trying to do the right thing when they leave still have access to Apple files—despite not wanting them or even being aware of them. It is interesting/curious that this "common issue" was itself recently [in the press as an "exclusive"](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-icloud-policy-fueled-employee-leaks-ahead-openai-suit?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Feels a bit strategically leaky... Back to the iMessages,[3](#three) the current Apple employee clearly gets spooked when they get a notification that "Chang" has joined a spreadsheet. They note that they may have to "hit the workday button now" which suggests it would finally and fully cut off access to Chang Liu's files – which is fairly damning as it's an acknowledgement that they know they shouldn't be accessing these files and that they know how to turn it off. (And actually, it's Chang Liu who pushes to turn iMessage access off because *it might leak OpenAI information the other way, to Apple*!) Chang Liu responds that he doesn't have access to the spreadsheet in question and that it's "Maybe the new Chang". Yes, it's seemingly *another* Chang naming mix-up![4](#four) So they keep going... Anyway, most of the iMessages that OpenAI shares here are decidedly more murky, simply because there's so much that's redacted. Obviously this is to protect Apple's confidential information – largely, it seems project names but also clearly some details on timing; it's impossible to know what else given the redactions – and it's still not a great look that an OpenAI employee is talking about such things so openly with a current Apple employee. The most damning portion may be when other current Apple employees are added to the chat thread and one promptly responds with: > Hi, this is highly irregular, please remove me from this thread Yeah, not great. Then again, these messages *do* help frame it as much more of a casual correspondence with the Apple employee seeking help from their former colleague. Anyone who has ever left a job can undoubtedly relate. Someone you used to work with pings you for some help on something you used to know about/work on. Technically, you probably shouldn't help them, but come on, we're all humans. So yeah, these messages make it seem less like some big coordinated effort to steal from Apple and more like some bad judgement on a former Apple employee's part. But also the current Apple employee's part too! In that regard, it's probably a good thing for OpenAI that this is angling towards a jury trial, because they might be more um, open to seeing the human error side of this. Because technically, legally, there's still clearly some at the very least proprietary information changing hands here. And that's not great for OpenAI even if it just opens the door to discovery. [More and more that seems to be the real angle here](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/). Apple appears to be using this situation as a wedge to pry open the doors to any and all communication within OpenAI about information that relates to what former Apple employees are now working on within OpenAI. Like, say, [an AI speaker](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/). Or a [phone-like](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) [device](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,%F0%9F%93%B1%20The%20OpenAiPhone%3F,-%E2%80%93%20First%2C%20are). You have to believe there's going to be a lot of such information simply given the fact that some [400+ people](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apple-lawsuit-threatens-openais-hardware-215438163.html?ref=spyglass.org) who used to work at Apple now work at OpenAI! That doesn't mean any of it will be damning let alone illegal, but well, Apple would like to see that to decide for themselves! OpenAI would not like Apple to see any of that, one imagines.[5](#five) So the question now is if a judge is going to allow that discovery process to happen. It's clearly not a coincidence that OpenAI is releasing their side of the story now as [yesterday Apple formally filed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/apple-seeks-preliminary-injunction-against-openai-trade-secrets-case-2026-08-04/?ref=spyglass.org) their request for a preliminary injunction against Chang Liu and Tang Tan (who OpenAI defended in their post today, but didn't release any documents/correspondence about). Most notably, Apple is also seeking "expedited discovery". And also seeking depositions of Chang Liu and Tang Tan *and* Yu-Ting Peng. If you recognize that last name, it's because she's named in the suit as a co-conspirator with Chang Liu, but [interestingly](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/), wasn't actually sued by Apple. Given everything that has been reported, you'd be forgiven to think the messages OpenAI published here were between Chang Liu and Peng. But wait, at one point he says "Thank you sir!" in response which sure suggests it's not Peng. And actually, their potentially problematic correspondence was stated to have taken place *over Line*, not iMessage so... Why is OpenAI publishing *this set* of messages? Pretty clearly to establish that Chang Liu was simply trying to help Apple employees, who were the ones asking for it. But this clearly isn't the problematic communication and actions that Apple pointed to in the actual lawsuit – which also includes the downloading of documents. The fact that OpenAI didn't publish *those* now looks weird, at best. "Just iMessages might get you in trouble," as Chang Liu writes at one point. For now, indeed. But there's clearly more to come. A lot more. **One more thing:** per the *Reuters* report on Apple's preliminary injunction, beyond Tang Tan, Chang Liu, and Yu-Ting Peng, Apple also is specifically looking to depose another "unnamed OpenAI employee who previously worked at Apple." Unclear who that might be. Could it be "Wang"?! Perhaps even more intriguingly: > Apple also sought depositions from corporate representatives of OpenAI and ‌io ⁠Products, which is OpenAI's commercial arm and is listed as a defendant in the lawsuit. Is this Apple's way to subtly rope in Jony Ive as well? Or are they going to continue to (clearly intentionally) leave him out of this? What about Sam Altman? 🎙️ Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Pretty standard OpenAI playbook at this point to [publish such corresepondence](https://openai.com/index/openai-elon-musk/?ref=spyglass.org), see also: the Elon Musk lawsuit. OpenAI always seems to have to ["sadly" publish such things](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/tech/openai-elon-musk-emails?ref=spyglass.org). Which in this case, did not stop a trial ([and the embarassing disclosures](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/)) even if OpenAI [won that one in the end](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-luddites-an-elon-openai-verdict-big-techs-emissary-movement-apples-dinged-can-strategy-siri-heads-back-to-beta-the-great-sf-ai-divide/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Well%2C%20There%20Goes%20That%20Dream). 2 As an aside, is it too 3D Chess to think that Che Chang made such a big deal out of this mix-up knowing that it could help any potential legal issues down the road – and/or distract from what Apple's outside counsel is looking into? But then again, we don't know what documents were actually inadvertently shared, so... I'm just putting it out there! [↩](#) 3 Which, kudos to OpenAI for the formatting in their blogpost. Not only does the back-and-forth actually resemble actual iMessages, there are blue bubbles! [↩](#) 4 "That new Chang has big shoes to fill." [↩](#) 5 Another reason why, perhaps, [they shouldn't have poked the bear](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/) in the months leading up to this situation... [↩](#) ### What if Anthropic is Right? URL: https://spyglass.org/what-if-anthropic-is-right/ Last updated: 2026-08-05T16:54:39.000Z If you live online, you'll have noticed the vibe has shifted pretty substantially against Anthropic in recent weeks. Whereas even just a few months ago, the company was seen as the more scrappy, idealistic underdog – one which happened to be formed by founders who left the seemingly unstoppable foe in OpenAI – that tide has now turned. [Certainly part of it](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) is just the shift from underdog to presumed leader in AI. But a lot of it has to do with [the way Anthropic carries itself as a company](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/). Whereas the strong stances and rhetoric were once seen as almost endearing, now they're seen more as a problem. [From the US Government](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/) to Big Tech and many in between. The mood now feels so negative against Anthropic that it seems worth asking the obvious question that no one wants to bother with any longer: what if they're right? _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Hollywood's Brand New Day? URL: https://spyglass.org/spider-man-box-office-record/ Last updated: 2026-08-04T17:00:25.000Z [‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ and ‘The Odyssey’ Power Biggest Collective Weekend in Box Office History With $430 MillionThanks to the one-two punch of “The Odyssey” and “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” the box office had its biggest collective haul of all time.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/icon-144x144-88b342cf-2010-4abc-a28a-0e1c3d161f99.png)VarietyRebecca Rubin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MCDODYS_UV040-e1785170172245-55a52366-63d9-47a0-81b0-a940a9c43955.jpg)](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/the-odyssey-spiderman-biggest-box-office-weekend-history-1236825132/?ref=spyglass.org) Look, the numbers are great. Perhaps even incredible given where the box office has been in the last few years post-pandemic. But what they aren't are actual records. At least if we're being honest with ourselves. > A powerful one-two punch from “[Spider-Man: Brand New Day](https://variety.com/t/spider-man-brand-new-day/?ref=spyglass.org)” and “[The Odyssey](https://variety.com/t/the-odyssey/?ref=spyglass.org)” has fueled the biggest collective weekend in box office history, with roughly $430 million across all movies in the marketplace. > > Prior to this, the top three weekends were led by 2019’s “Avengers: Endgame” ($402 million collectively), 2018’s “Avengers: Infinity War” ($314 million collectively) and 2015’s “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” ($313 million collectively). It’s a particularly exciting benchmark for the recently married Tom Holland and Zendaya, who star in “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” and “The Odyssey.” I personally find it odd that these headlines keep coming unabated despite the fact that perhaps the only topic on which more ink has been spilled in the past few years than the death of the movie theater has been on the concept of inflation. Because of the way that money and time work, this is simply not a real comparison. It's not exactly apples-to-oranges, but it's certainly not dollars-to-dollars! [I harp on this a lot](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/), [and have](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) [for years](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org), but I feel the need to dumb it down even further to make it clear: Yes, $430M is more than $402M in 2026\. But the problem is that only the $430M number *is from 2026*. The $402M number is *from 2019*. Thanks to said inflation, $402M earned in 2019 is actually closer to $525M in 2026 if you simply adjust using the consumer pricing index numbers. The reality is slightly more nuanced because movie ticket prices don't track exactly to this number, and actually overall inflation has caused the CPI to rise faster than ticket prices. Still, the 2019 number is almost certainly closer to $500M when adjusting for 2026 movie ticket prices. $525M – or even just $500M – is still more than $430M. So what we're really celebrating here is that things are more expensive with time. That includes milk. That includes movie tickets. Congrats, everyone. > “We have conquered a box-office milestone that seemed forever out of reach,” says Paul Dergarabedian, Rentrak’s head of marketplace trends. “This is now only the second $400 million-plus weekend in box office history.” $400M today is likely to look something more like $750M - $800M in 2050, so one imagines we won't be touting such "forever out of reach" numbers by then. Calm down, dude. You know what other metric is at or near a record? The number of theaters that movies are opening in. When *Batman* set a record opening in 1989, it did so in just under 2,200 locations. *Brand New Day* just opened in 4,487,[1](#one) just shy of *Top Gun: Maverick's* 2022 record of 4,735 locations. Look, again, it was a great weekend! But I don't see the point of not putting it into the actual, appropriate context. I mean, I certainly do if you're Hollywood! And I guess I do if you're a Hollywood trade publication. (Though, to be fair, [another article](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/spider-man-brand-new-day-box-office-opening-weekend-1236825953/?ref=spyglass.org) about the weekend not fully centered around the "record" *does* caveat that the numbers are not inflation-adjusted.) Still, readers outside of the industry might want at least a dose of reality in such reporting. The 2018 $314M weekend number adjusted with CPI ends up being about $418M, so this new "record" weekend would hold there, just barely. However the 2015 $313M weekend translates to $441M in 2026 money, so the "record" again falls there, just barely. But don't you think it's curious how every record weekend before this one occurred in a four year span from 2015 to 2019? Again, that's inflation! The [*actual* box office records for individual movies](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top%5Flifetime%5Fgross%5Fadjusted/?adjust%5Fgross%5Fto=2019&ref=spyglass.org) illustrates this point well. *Gone with the Wind*, which was released in 1939, remains the all-time leader **at $1.85B**. Second is *Star Wars* (aka *A New Hope* – the first of the first trilogy), released in 1977 at $1.63B. *The Sound of Music*, released in 1965 is third at $1.3B. In fact, to find a movie released after 2000, you have to go down to #11, *The Force Awakens*, the first of the third *Star Wars* trilogies which yes, powered the 2015 weekend mentioned above. And wait a minute, it's sort of buried by *Box Office Mojo*, but those adjusted numbers are only updated for *2019 ticket prices*! Updated to 2026 prices, $1.85B becomes... $2.4B for *Gone with the Wind*! *Star Wars'* 2019 figure would look more like $2.13B now. *The Sound of Music* would be at $1.7B today. That's just domestic. In that regard, for context, the biggest movie released all of last year was either *Zootopia 2* or *The Minecraft Movie* (depending on if you only include 2025 domestic box office), both around $430M. This year's crop will for sure finish far higher – *Toy Story 5* is [already past](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?ref%5F=bo%5Fyl%5Ftable%5F1&ref=spyglass.org) that number, *Super Mario Galaxy* is inches away, *The Odyssey* should surpass it this week – but let's just say the winner ends up being this new *Spider-Man*, and let's try to extrapolate out to say that it might end up in the $750M - $900M range (which is likely generous as it probably won't have the holding power of *The Odyssey* – [superhero movies tend to be far more front-loaded and fall faster](https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/)). That could come close to [the current all-time box office champ](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top%5Flifetime%5Fgross/?ref%5F=bo%5Fcso%5Fac&ref=spyglass.org) (when not accounting for inflation): the aforementioned *The Force Awakens* at $937M. But wait, actually, that *Force Awakens* number would be more like $1.3B in 2026 dollars. There's that pesky inflation again! The only movie on that non-adjusted all-time list released before 2000 is 1997's *Titanic* at #9\. Beyond that, there's only one other movie released in the 90s – 1999's *The Phantom Menace*, the first of the second trilogy – at #23\. To find a movie not released in the past 30 years, you have to go to #28 where, yes, the first *Star Wars* again resides (after a few re-releases). To finally find a non-*Star Wars* movie to make the cut, you have to go to #34 with 1982's *E.T* (also after several re-releases). 🦇 As an aside, the biggest movie before the 1990s that **doesn't* include re-release grosses is probably the aforementioned **Batman* which is #169 on the list! And again, that was released in 1989! Again, all of this is just meant to illustrate the roll inflation and ticket prices play in these numbers. We're celebrating an all-time weekend, but that's simply because money's value is also at an all-time high. If we wanted a more honest measurement, [we'd use tickets sold](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) or even something like [per-capita filmgoing](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org). But Hollywood would prefer we don't look at those numbers, for obvious reasons. At the end of the day, I suppose the most important thing is [unlike many](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) of its [high-grossing brethren](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/), *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* will actually turn a *profit* at the box office. In fact, it undoubtedly already has! Ditto with *The Odyssey* and several other movies this year, thus far. That's great! And certainly better than years past. But it's also undoubtedly not that great when compared to the type of profit margins that the *actual* highest grossing movies of all time [used to pull](https://500ish.com/the-future-of-cinema-2e0240d83507?ref=spyglass.org). For those margins and profits, we probably have to turn to [the talent streaming in from YouTube](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/)... **One more thing:** sure, let's call this *a new hope* or a *brand new day*. And [movie theaters](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) and Hollywood will take whatever wins they can get. But just to keep the wet blanket wrapped around the narrative for a moment, I'll note that despite the shocked euphoria that Hollywood now seems to be expressing over these numbers, this was entirely predictable. In fact, it was [one of my predictions for 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/)! But it came with a warning: > **A box office boom, but...** – Spider-Man, Avengers, Hunger Games, Jumanji, Toy Story, Shrek, Mandalorian (and Grogu), Mario, Minions, Moana, Michael Jackson, Narnia, Odyssey, Dune, Steven Spielberg back with aliens – even if all of them don't hit (Supergirl?), enough of them will to boost the box office results for 2026, perhaps even past the pre-pandemic levels finally (not counting for inflation, [because Hollywood ridiculously never seems to...](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/)). Everyone will trumpet the return of movie theaters, and yet it won't change any of the [longer-term trends](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) and [issues](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) with the [industry](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/). Of course, we won't be able to see that fully until 2027 and beyond... Yeah... (Also, [nailed it](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/supergirl-making-box-office-bomb-1236636425/?ref=spyglass.org) with the *Supergirl* sub-prediction there!) --- **Update**: I've now **seen** *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* and I will just say, it's very good. A little long, but well made and entertaining. Regardless of the money funny business with records, I feel like it's important to note that a huge reason for its success is that it's good, plain and simple. --- **Update 2**: Shocking exactly no one, [Sony is now saying](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/spider-man-brand-new-day-opening-record-endgame-box-office-1236662986/?ref=spyglass.org) that *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* has actually leaped ahead of *Avengers: Endgame* with $360M to become the top opening of all time. Of course, that $360M is in 2026 dollars and... --- 1 Honestly, the most impressive think about *Spider-Man's* opening here is that it posted the numbers *without IMAX*, because those screens are still tied up showing *The Odyssey*. Of course, given [their clearly maximum utilization](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DbdVQU9CBec?ref=spyglass.org), it doesn't change any point about the overall weekend numbers. [↩](#) ### Sticking the Landing URL: https://spyglass.org/the-bear-ending/ Last updated: 2026-08-02T20:03:13.000Z When [I first wrote about *The Bear* four years ago](https://500ish.com/yes-chef-cdc1c689c67c?ref=spyglass.org), I had just finished season one and almost couldn't believe how well it worked despite it's almost comically short length. But really as the season went on, it felt like that's *why* it worked: each episode was *exactly as long as it needed to be* and not a minute more.[1](#one) All killer no filler.[2](#two) I'm happy to report that having just finished the fifth (and final) season,[3](#three) it ends just as it began – right up to the point of having a penultimate intense episode followed by a more meditative coda for the finale. After some up-and-down middle seasons,[4](#four) it's nice to know they once again stuck the landing.[5](#five) And it's also nice to know that I wasn't alone in thinking this. [I've written before](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/) about the site [TVCharts](https://tvcharts.co/?ref=spyglass.org), which uses IMDb's star review system to give you a sense of how each episode (and season) of a show was received. Yes, yes, the IMDb ratings are sometimes gamed at first and have at times been a hotbed of weird and/or problematic behavior. But over time, I found them to be a fairly [accurate](https://tvcharts.co/show/the-acolyte-tt12262202?ref=spyglass.org) representation of how "good" or "bad" movies or shows are, at least [directionally](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-mostly-sucked/). Perhaps that means my taste are to vanilla or mainstream, but [I've long found such aggregated opinions](https://500ish.com/the-wisdom-of-the-well-informed-7270edec70cf?ref=spyglass.org) to guide me fairly well. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/Screenshot-2026-08-02-at-3.52.42---PM-1.png) But actually, more recently, I've been using a site called [Series Graph](https://seriesgraph.com/?ref=spyglass.org) to track such things. The idea is the same – IMDb scores aggregated – but their data is far more up-to-date. I'll often now consult these sites before diving into a new series to see if it's likely worth my time. But I started *The Bear* before I found such sites, so I didn't want to "spoil" the ending – meaning, knowing if they stuck that landing or not. Anyway, it was [nice to see *The Bear* close out](https://seriesgraph.com/show/136315-the-bear?ref=spyglass.org) those final two episodes with a 9.7 and 9.1 (out of 10) rating, respectively. Truly great scores to wrap up a series. And this took me down a rabbit hole of looking at just how many series stuck the landing versus "shit the landing" as it were. *Game of Thrones* is the most obvious and famous example, and it's [showcased well by Series Graph](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1399-game-of-thrones?ref=spyglass.org). Over the first seven seasons, the series had eleven episodes that are currently rated 9.7 or above – *three that are 9.9*! Then came season 8... Boy did they shit the bed. Per these ratings, the season starts out [troublesome](https://500ish.com/a-longer-long-night-deef958ea8d1?ref=spyglass.org) – episodes that would be considered fine for any other show, but are way below the average for *Game of Thrones*. But the final three episodes are well... [we've been over this](https://500ish.com/for-whom-the-bells-tolls-c55c30cb47b1?ref=spyglass.org). It's so clear that they ran out of runway or steam or ideas – or all three. It's honestly a travesty given how good and iconic the overall series was and is. [I still wish](https://mgs.blog/the-case-to-redo-game-of-thrones-73edf2b57fdb?ref=spyglass.org) they would [re-do them](https://spyglass.org/remake-game-of-thrones-please/), because at some point soon, you know someone is going to use AI to do just that. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/Screenshot-2026-08-02-at-3.53.17---PM.png) Okay, focus. Some other fun ones: - [***The Office***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/2316-the-office?ref=spyglass.org) was clearly dwindling before ending strong. - [***Breaking Bad***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1396-breaking-bad?ref=spyglass.org) may indeed be [the GOAT](https://seriesgraph.com/top-rated?ref=spyglass.org) (and [***Better Call Saul***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/60059-better-call-saul?ref=spyglass.org) is close!). - [My decision](https://500ish.com/halted-caught-fire-8128de2d111a?ref=spyglass.org) to push out watching the end of [***Halt & Catch Fire***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/59659-halt-and-catch-fire?ref=spyglass.org) (because I never want it to end) seems like it will reward me in the end, one day! - [***Dexter***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1405-dexter?ref=spyglass.org) also shit the landing, but was [somehow](https://seriesgraph.com/show/219937-dexter-original-sin?ref=spyglass.org) [resurrected](https://seriesgraph.com/show/259909-dexter:-resurrection?ref=spyglass.org)! - [***Succession***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/76331-succession?ref=spyglass.org) started fairly slow then was truly [all bangers, all the time](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuccessionTV/comments/1p90i3n/on%5Fthis%5Fday%5Fin%5Fsuccession%5Fhistory%5Fwe%5Fgot%5Fall%5Fthe/?ref=spyglass.org). - The ending of each season of [***The Wire***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1438-the-wire?ref=spyglass.org) is truly something to behold. - [***Mad Men***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1104-mad-men?ref=spyglass.org) nearly matched it in this regard. - As did [***Cobra Kai***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/77169-cobra-kai?ref=spyglass.org)! - And [***The Leftovers***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/54344-the-leftovers?ref=spyglass.org)! - Why is there not more [***Sherlock***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/19885-sherlock?ref=spyglass.org)? - I recalled liking [***Mr. Robot***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/62560-mr.-robot?ref=spyglass.org), but never finished it, but people *really* love the last season? - [***Peaky Blinders***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/60574-peaky-blinders?ref=spyglass.org) is insanely consistent(ly) great. - As was [***Downton Abbey***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/33907-downton-abbey?ref=spyglass.org) over more episodes. - [***Slow Horses***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/95480-slow-horses?ref=spyglass.org) has been thus far... - As was [***24***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1973-24?ref=spyglass.org) with an even longer time horizon and despite being forced to have *24 episodes each season* (for obvious reasons)! - The end of [***Lost***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/4607-lost?ref=spyglass.org) was divisive in real time, but looked kindly upon now (also, wow TV shows had a lot of episodes back in the *actual* TV days!). - [***The Crown***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/65494-the-crown?ref=spyglass.org) started to lose steam but stuck the actual landing. - [***Ted Lasso***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/97546-ted-lasso?ref=spyglass.org) seemed to wrap up well ([though I felt differently](https://500ish.com/ted-lasso-will-be-back-6957631078d4?ref=spyglass.org), which is how I knew it would be back). - People generally don't like how [***Stranger Things***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/66732-stranger-things?ref=spyglass.org) ended (though it looks great next to *Game of Thrones*). - Bring back [***Firefly***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1437-firefly?ref=spyglass.org), you cowards ([more than just an animated version](https://spyglass.org/firefly-animated-series/)). - Bring back [***True Detective***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/46648-true-detective?ref=spyglass.org) (well, [season one](https://spyglass.org/true-detective-mcconaughey-harrelson/) – the rest we can do without, [especially ***Night Country***](https://spyglass.org/true-detective-night-country/)). - [***Six Feet Under***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1274-six-feet-under?ref=spyglass.org) had the perfect ending? - Boy,[***The Boys***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/76479-the-boys?ref=spyglass.org) did not. - People seem to think more kindly upon the last few seasons of [***The West Wing***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/688-the-west-wing?ref=spyglass.org) (the post-Sorkin ones) than I remember. - People *really* seem to look more kindly upon [***The Newsroom***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/15621-the-newsroom?ref=spyglass.org) than I recall (as I recall thinking it was self-indulgently and self-importantly bad?!). - The first season of [***The Morning Show***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/90282-the-morning-show?ref=spyglass.org) was [good](https://500ish.com/a-surprising-morning-jolt-89acfefee9b8?ref=spyglass.org)! Since then, just okay. - [***House of Cards***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1425-house-of-cards?ref=spyglass.org) was... just that! - [***Andor***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/83867-andor?ref=spyglass.org) went out swinging. - [***Westworld***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/63247-westworld?ref=spyglass.org) did in season one! Then... did not. - Bring back [***Mindhunter***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/67744-mindhunter?ref=spyglass.org), you cowards. - Likewise, [***Rome***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/1891-rome?ref=spyglass.org) could have run a lot longer... - [***Severance***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/95396-severance?ref=spyglass.org) is more all over the place than the buzz would have you believe. - [Ditto](https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/) with [***Pluribus***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/225171-pluribus?ref=spyglass.org). - Though not as much as [***The Last of Us***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/100088-the-last-of-us?ref=spyglass.org)! - You can see why they're bringing back [***Shogun***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/126308-sh%C5%8Dgun?ref=spyglass.org) even if continuing with the cast makes no sense given the books. - [***Friday Night Lights***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/4278-friday-night-lights?ref=spyglass.org) played its way into shape. - While [***House of the Dragon***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/94997-house-of-the-dragon?ref=spyglass.org) has had highs and lows,[***A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/224372-a-knight-of-the-seven-kingdoms?ref=spyglass.org) is [the real deal](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-awkward-key-to-ai-going-forward?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=188635789&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=bvcu&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=I%20kid%2C%20I,thanks%20to%20that%3F). - All time great road to the ending for [***The Americans***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/46533-the-americans?ref=spyglass.org). - [***X-Men '97***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/138502-x-men-'97?ref=spyglass.org) has had a few misses but some big hits thus far. - [***The Simpsons***](https://seriesgraph.com/show/456-the-simpsons?ref=spyglass.org) chart is truly something to behold – in ways good and (ever increasingly) bad! I could go on and on. It's such a deep rabbit hole. And now I have a half dozen old series I feel like I need to watch. At least with *The Bear* wrapped, there's a slot. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/08/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-2--2026--08_52_37-PM.png) --- 1 As opposed to *Ted Lasso*, which [always felt far too short](https://500ish.com/a-too-short-lasso-d75f76e74bc2?ref=spyglass.org) in that first season. We'll see what format/lenght they go with when it returns this week! [↩](#) 2 Honestly, my main nit would be the release strategy here. I [continue to think](https://500ish.com/the-strange-thing-about-stranger-things-7f2f7d256de6?ref=spyglass.org) it's dumb that once a show is established, as *The Bear* clearly is, to just dump all the episodes at once rather than [let them build over several weeks/months](https://500ish.com/from-binge-watching-to-appointment-viewing-8baa2e07c671?ref=spyglass.org), with [conversations around each episode](https://500ish.com/binge-purge-a4e2f00ee369?ref=spyglass.org). And it's [not even Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) that made and streamed *The Bear*, but FX/Hulu/Disney! [↩](#) 3 Yes, they managed to do *five seasons in four years*. That's basically unheard of in our era of streaming, though, see below... [↩](#) 4 Perhaps in part because they broke up season 3 into season 3 *and 4* rather than just trimming the fat to make one season. Interestingly, almost [the opposite problem that *House of the Dragon* ran into](https://spyglass.org/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-finale-hbo/) in season two ([as the scores confirm!](https://seriesgraph.com/show/94997-house-of-the-dragon?ref=spyglass.org)). [↩](#) 5 One thing I found curious and notably absent versus the first couple of seasons: there was far less (popular) music used. Maybe I just didn't notice it as much because there was no Pearl Jam. [And I love](https://spyglass.org/pearl-jam-dark-matter/) [Pearl Jam](https://spyglass.org/tag/pearl-jam/). But obviously season 1 ends with that great use of "Let Down" by Radiohead, and I was surprised they didn't do something similar with the finale given how the structure mimicks the end of that first season. Were the rights too expensive given the success of the show?! [↩](#) ### The CapEx Two-Step URL: https://spyglass.org/the-capex-two-step/ Last updated: 2026-08-04T15:23:23.000Z It's that time of year again: quarterly earnings for Big Tech. And you know what that means... time for Wall Street to [freak out over CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) related to AI build-out [once again](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/). Sure enough, Google went first and upped their forecasted spend pushing the range past $200B for the first time. [The market puked](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/google-falls-more-than-6-on-capex-growth-expectations-despite-earnings-beat-202407124.html?ref=spyglass.org). Next up, Meta. They simply raised the low-end of their previous guidance (to $130B up from $125B). [The market puked](https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-narrows-annual-capex-forecast-ai-buildout-grows-2026-07-29/?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) Then there's Microsoft... Wait, what's this? *The stock is currently* [*up over 8%*](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/microsoft-beats-on-profit-and-revenue-shares-rise-after-hours-4821565?ref=spyglass.org) *in after-hours?!* Why? Well I think it's mainly continued impressive Azure growth BUT it's at least in part because unlike with Google's and Meta's relatively strong earnings, that growth *isn't* negated by yet another resetting of CapEx expectations. In fact, Microsoft is now guiding that their number will come in at $175B for the 2026 calendar year. That's actually *$15B below* the previous estimate. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### 'Apple as a Service' At Last URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-as-a-service/ Last updated: 2026-07-29T12:31:10.000Z When Apple jacked up their prices across several products last month, there was a curious absence – a big one, the biggest one: the iPhone. [As I noted at the time](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/), it seemed like a strategy so as not to shock the system – read: Wall Street – all at once. The iPhone [remains](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) the most vital aspect of Apple's business, so while Tim Cook had [already signaled](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%20%E2%80%9CUnfortunately%2C%20price%20increases%20are%20unavoidable.%22) – **step one** – the price increases were coming, pushing them first across nearly the entire product lineup *aside from the iPhone* clearly seemed like **step two** in this easement strategy. **Step three** would likely be to announce the new iPhone pricing alongside unveiling the new premium iPhone models – including, for the first time, the 'iPhone Ultra', the first foldable, and [undoubtedly most expensive](https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/), iPhone. And even that was clever/lucky since Apple has [long been](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) believed to be breaking up the iPhone launches starting this year, with the "regular" iPhones 18 coming [in the Spring](https://spyglass.org/apples-first-look-fall-secondary-spring/) of 2027\. And that would have been a **step four** of the strategy, since the buyers of the non-Pro devices are more likely to be price conscious. So Apple would have guided towards that outcome and postponed that pain as long as possible. Well, as it turns out, this is a **five step** strategy! Before that all-important step three of unveiling the new iPhones in September, Apple had a trick up their sleeve: a new way to pay! [Say hello to Apple Upgrade](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-upgrade-launches-in-the-united-states/?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple Upgrade offers 12- and 24-month leasing options for iPhone and Apple Watch, and 24- and 36-month leasing options for Mac and iPad. Leasing prices start as low as $17.99 per month for iPhone, $11.99 for Apple Watch, $24.99 for Mac, and $11.99 for iPad. When customers first enroll in Apple Upgrade, they can further lower their monthly lease payments by trading in their currently owned device through [Apple Trade In](https://www.apple.com/shop/trade-in/?ref=spyglass.org). Customers can also earn 3 percent Daily Cash back when making their lease payments with Apple Card. While Apple still didn't raise iPhone prices alongside this move, it's clearly another lever to pull getting ahead of that inevitable increase in a few weeks. Now a $100 or $200 price increase on the iPhone 18 Pro – perhaps soon to start at $1,299? – will look far less daunting when Apple can also tout the option to pay, say, $33.99/month.[1](#one) And even better will be for those aforementioned "regular" iPhone 18 models coming in the Spring, which could start at just say, $19.99/month (again, assuming some increase in the monthly price alongside an actual iPhone price increase). Apple, of course, has long had a way for some customers to pay for an iPhone monthly with the 'iPhone Upgrade Program', but as the name indicates, it was mostly geared around those who upgraded every year and allowed them to save a lot in terms of up-front costs and a bit in terms overall costs for a single iPhone – but with the rub being that they would have to pay in perpetuity! Given that I upgrade my iPhone each year, I was an early member of this program, but found it [a bit of a mess](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/883847550683369473?ref=spyglass.org) by Apple's standards, at least in those early days. A big part of that is because Apple partnered with a third-party bank on the financing element. For a while, [it seemed like](https://500ish.com/the-apple-bank-a2574cfbf99e?ref=spyglass.org) Apple would try to bring this all in-house as they slowly but surely grew their payments prowess with first Apple Card, and then their own 'Pay Later' service. But, well, both have been sort of [a nightmare](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184635822/behind-the-scenes-of-the-apple-card-break-up?ref=spyglass.org). Apple partnered with Goldman Sachs to launch the Card and the two [quickly had a falling out](https://spyglass.org/apple-card-meet-apple-bank/) and it took well over a year to find [a new home with JPMorgan](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/183928356/apple-card-gets-a-new-home?ref=spyglass.org) (which is still in process). Meanwhile, Apple Pay Later only made it a year before [they pulled the plug entirely](https://spyglass.org/so-much-for-the-apple-bank/), seemingly not enjoying holding the debt on their balance sheet. So much for [the Apple Bank](https://500ish.com/the-apple-bank-a2574cfbf99e?ref=spyglass.org)! Apple went back to partnering. And they're doing so here as well, with Klarna. And yes, the iPhone Upgrade Program is [going away](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/28/apple-upgrade-program-klarna/?ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) This is a far more robust offering for more Apple products. Yes, you can still do the monthly installment option with Apple Card, but that's only that card and that's only to fully buy the device over time. Anyway, as someone who has long been on the lookout [for an 'Apple Prime' or 'iPhone Prime' offering](https://500ish.com/apple-prime-and-the-iphone-pro-40d970060c8b?ref=spyglass.org) – that is, a way to "subscribe" to pay for your iPhone just as you subscribe to Amazon Prime – this is the closest thing yet. Yes, Apple has the 'Apple One' subscription but it only bundles their software offerings, not the iPhone (or any other hardware). Still, [it seemed inevitable](https://500ish.com/the-1-500-iphone-53e7ec63046a?ref=spyglass.org) given the ever-rising costs of the iPhone, as Apple pushed more and more premium models. And now it's here, a true 'Apple-as-a-Service'. Yes, it would be a bit nicer to rope this into Apple One itself. Or for it to be fully run through Apple without any partners needing to do third-party credit checks and whatnot. But Apple will presumably make this as seamless as they possibly can. Because again, I think it's a big part of their strategy to alleviate (and in a way, obfuscate) the price rises that have been [forced upon Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) by the current market dynamics. One imagines we'll see that familiar iPhone pricing slide during Apple's next keynote – the first undoubtedly to be [fully MC'd by John Ternus](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) – but with a new element: "the iPhone 18 Pro starts at just $1,299 **or** you can sign up for 'Apple Upgrade' and pay just $33.99/month for 24 months (or more if you want a 12 month term). And at the end of that term, you can opt to pay a bit more to buy the device outright, or simply choose a new model! This will be offered in the US to start, but we're working to bring it to other parts of the world soon."[3](#three) And just like that, Apple will have kicked 'AaaS' out the door. Curious to see how they account for this – literally. Do they still book the full device price at time of sale, or just the portion covered by the lease? It then perhaps technically becomes Klarna's iPhone for which to collect the monthly installments? Or is it some sort of hybrid? But that's too in the weeds. For consumers, [this will just look like](https://www.apple.com/shop/apple-upgrade?ref=spyglass.org) you can buy an iPhone (or Mac, or iPad, or Apple Watch) from Apple for a relatively low monthly fee. And given where Apple's prices are heading, that's going to look awfully enticing to many. --- 1 Unless Apple already baked-in the upcoming iPhone price increases into these monthly rates? It's possible but probably unlikely? That would be a nice "surprise" though if they don't have to raise these just-announced monthly prices! [↩](#) 2 And with it, sadly, the inclusion of AppleCare in such programs, [it seems](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/28/apple-upgrade-program-tidbits/?ref=spyglass.org). That will be extra. [Services](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/), FTW ([for Apple's bottom line](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/)). [↩](#) 3 Which may be a part of why they picked Klarna here, a company headquartered in Stockholm but that operates in the US as well... [↩](#) ### YouTube "Hackquires" Peacock URL: https://spyglass.org/youtube-plus-peacock/ Last updated: 2026-07-28T15:07:02.000Z With the [impending](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) – well, or [possibly *imploding*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/business/paramount-warner-bros-deal-pause.html?ref=spyglass.org) – merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery, there was [clearly](https://spyglass.org/paramount-peacock/) an odd man out in the big streaming race: Peacock. Thanks largely to recent massive sporting events like the Olympics, it wasn't dying, but it also wasn't thriving. It simply was not in a position to compete with Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, and [soon](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190122597/paramount-plus-hbo-max?ref=spyglass.org), HBO Max + Paramount+. So it could keep going, scraping and clawing to barely eek out a profit, [as it finally did this past quarter](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/peacock-turns-a-profit-universal-parks-struggle-1236654852/?ref=spyglass.org), or it could find a new home. With the news that Comcast was splitting itself in two – *again –* [it felt like the ground was being laid for just that](https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/). But we were all of us deceived. For another option was on the table. A big one. Here's [Lillian Rizzo for *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/nbcuniversal-youtube-peacock-premium-subscribers.html?ref=spyglass.org): > NBCUniversal’s Peacock is officially landing on YouTube. > > All of the streaming service’s content — including NBC Sports’ portfolio of the NFL and NBA, Universal films like the Minions franchise, and original Peacock and Bravo content like the Real Housewives franchise and “Love Island USA” — will be included in YouTube Premium subscriptions in the U.S. starting early next year. > > [Google](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL/?ref=spyglass.org)’s YouTube Premium is the subscription version of the streaming platform that offers videos without ads and the ability to download most videos, depending on the subscription tier. The service offers a variety of plans beginning at $8.99 per month. Peacock Premium currently costs $10.99 per month. While we don't yet know all the details in terms of the financial arrangements between the two sides, on the surface, this is a *wild* deal. It sure looks like Comcast is selling Peacock to YouTube *without actually selling Peacock to YouTube*. Yes, it [seems](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2081776430061355387?ref=spyglass.org) like sort of a "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" but for the media world. You know, effectively buying something without the headache of *actually* buying it. Perhaps that is the point here as well. Would regulators allow YouTube to buy Peacock? Maybe, but probably only if they spun-off YouTube TV? The key would obviously be who actually owned NBC and Universal, but if Comcast kept those, what's the point of owning Peacock? Regardless, any such deal would be bogged down in hearings and challenges for months, if not *years*. Again, see: Paramount/Warner Bros. So yeah, this seemingly makes more sense. Certainly for YouTube. Who now quickly gets to offer their Premium subscribers – long held as one of the best deals in streaming thanks to the removal of YouTube ads – a whole new bundle of carrots. Honestly, it looks like such a good deal [that you have to believe](https://www.threads.com/@rstephens/post/DbTcJv%5FlNAl?ref=spyglass.org) YouTube is going to raise the Premium price, pronto.[1](#one) As for why you’d now sign up for Peacock stand-alone versus YouTube Premium? I don’t know. We‘ll have to see if there are new pricing tiers, I guess. But again, this just sort of looks like YouTube de facto bought Peacock and is now tying it into their offering. Yes, it's a bundle. But it's likely bigger and better than your typical bundle because it sure sounds like all the Peacock content will be deeply integrated within YouTube itself. It even sounds more integrated than your typical "Channel" offering, since again, it's included with your YouTube Premium package, no separate subscription required. All of this also further blurs the lines with the aforementioned YouTube TV. But I suspect Google is fine to simply keep that as the mechanism with which to [bleed the other cable companies](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) – including Comcast – dry until cable itself is [fully dead](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-kills-cable/). And Comcast, knowing that's coming, smartly hitched the wagon: > The partnership announced Monday also extends NBCUniversal’s multiyear distribution agreement with YouTube TV, the streaming-only TV bundle run by YouTube, as well as distribution of YouTube, YouTube TV and Premium on Comcast’s Xfinity-branded cable TV and Xumo platforms. > > It will also see enhance the advertising partnership and capabilities between the two companies, allowing NBCUniversal to monetize advertising for its Peacock content on YouTube’s platform. Advertising has become a key driver of streaming growth across media companies. So yeah, this seems pretty good for Comcast too, if they're simply reading where all of this is heading and getting ahead of it. And that's sort of the framing here: > NBCUniversal’s partnership with YouTube was formed after Comcast co-CEO Brian Roberts reached out to YouTube CEO Neal Mohan about nine months ago, according to a person familiar with the matter. Following a meeting between the executive teams that took place at Google offices, the two companies began to brainstorm partnerships such as this, the person added. The biggest question remains how the actual deal is structured. Beyond direct monetization of their content on YouTube, presumably there's a broader revenue share in place too. The bigger question is if there was some sort of up front, lump-sum payment, or ongoing licensing payments. That *feels* likely, but we'll see. And if so, that may give some level of exclusivity to YouTube? Maybe Comcast can keep their [existing partnerships](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%F0%9F%A6%9A%20Apple%20TV%20%2B%20Peacock) in place as long as they're more of the aforementioned "Channels" or straightforward [bundle variety](https://spyglass.org/streamsaver/)? Maybe YouTube would even prefer that lest they draw the eye of regulators here. But this type of deep integration may be exclusive to YouTube? Or maybe YouTube is feeling confident enough in their offering that they don't care about any level of exclusivity here. And maybe they *should* given that they have 125M Premium subscribers and can upsell the over 2.5B – *that's billion* – monthly active users of YouTube itself. No one can compete with that. It will be interesting to see how YouTube brands this new premium Peacock content and tries to upsell it. It will naturally move YouTube into more direct competition with Netflix, shocking no one. That "UGC" label, long affixed as an almost Scarlet Letter on the service is [fading, fast](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/). YouTube will now get premium shows and movies but without having to directly commission them. Oh yes, and sports: > Live sports nab the biggest audiences for both streaming and linear TV. YouTube has been increasingly getting into the mix acquiring live sports rights. Last year it aired its [first ever live](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/cnbc-sport-youtube-nfl-game-ncaas-charlie-baker.html?ref=spyglass.org) NFL game, and since then the NFL has [continued to hold talks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/nfl-to-discuss-live-game-rights-with-new-media-partners.html?ref=spyglass.org) with non-traditional media companies like YouTube and Netflix. > > YouTube has become a platform for both sports leagues and media companies to host highlights and other game-related content in [a bid to attract](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/tiktok-youtube-sports-viewership.html?ref=spyglass.org) younger audiences. NBCUniversal’s sports-heavy streaming portfolio could complement that effort. > > As part of partnership between YouTube and NBCUniversal, NBC Sports will be a production partner for select live sports on YouTube, such as it was [for the NFL game](https://awfulannouncing.com/nbc/youtube-nfl-brazil-game-production-chargers-chiefs.html?ref=spyglass.org) last year. Will this help YouTube [attract more NFL games](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/)? It certainly can't hurt! And even if they don't, they'll now have access to those on Peacock/NBC! That's on top of the Sunday Ticket which is tied to YouTube TV, but is [actually available](https://tv.youtube.com/learn/nflsundayticket/?ref=spyglass.org) on YouTube itself as well. All of this is clearly [not great news for Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/). Not only were they [said to be](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/netflix-is-exploring-live-tv-and-bundles-as-it-struggles-to-keep-viewers-hooked-e1eb28f6?st=3G7xPB&ref=spyglass.org) exploring a Peacock add-on option – *which still could happen*, again presumably as a "Channel" within Netflix as a way for Comcast to continue to hedge – but the bigger issue is that this seemingly vaults YouTube into pole position as [the default UI for streaming](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/). [As I wrote just 11 days ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/), it felt like that was [the real battle](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) brewing between the two – with YouTube now surging ahead. And actually, about five weeks ago, [I had an, um, inkling](https://spyglass.org/inklings-hackquisitions-revisited-amazon-kills-the-openai-movie-netflix-is-tv-snap-spins-off-ai-trump-mocks-his-big-tech-sycophants/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BA%20Netflix%20as%20the%20New%20Cable%20TV%20Front%2DEnd) that something like this deal could be the next shoe to drop: > As YouTube TV [continues to eat](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) traditional cable's lunch, might we see other regional cable providers in the US hand over the keys to Netflix? Comcast, the largest, would presumably try to do it through Peacock? But Peacock remains a far smaller player. More interesting would be if YouTube tries to get into this game. There's probably too much conflict with YouTube TV, but it increasingly feels like Netflix and YouTube are [on a collision course](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) to be the main hub/UI of streaming. I mean, they already are in many ways, but with others' content – including perhaps Peacock and the like. And here we are. [It's beginning to look a lot like Comcast](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/), indeed. **One more thing:** This tie-up will certainly *help* *Paramount* make the case that they should be allowed to buy WBD. Then again, [I’ve felt that way before](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/)... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube Faster Than...YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-09b81d7f-9b9f-45fb-9540-582a074e49bb.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-16--2026--07_40_34-PM-c7610289-dbe7-4846-8e89-ae059a947b38.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/) [Netflix Needs a New ShakeupOutflanked by YouTube, they need a true focus on engagement…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-fed9924c-c63d-4e59-873d-b3de5eea6521.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-6--2026--11_15_25-AM-1-1705da30-8ca5-452c-a280-0062870b5a59.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) [Comcast is Unbundling... ComcastThe company can’t stop cutting itself in two, but who is buying? Netflix? SpaceX?!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-16f7fafe-1ba3-47aa-a08c-24c3f64719e2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_hinyfihinyfihiny-4431467a-5185-4c88-84dd-a0d547014cfe.png)](https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/) --- 1 [Sigh.](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-031-youtube-tv-makes-a-costly-mistake/) Though I guess removing one potential bill from [the current streaming insanity](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) is worth it. Hopefully literally! [↩](#) ### The Ideal Writing Day (At Least to Write a Spy Novel) URL: https://spyglass.org/ian-fleming-writing-routine/ Last updated: 2026-07-27T14:56:12.000Z As someone who has been writing daily – both professionally and for pleasure – for [the past quarter century or so](https://spyglass.org/writing-on-the-web/), I'm always trying to dial in the perfect routine. Not writing at all, while obviously the easiest, is also the worst. But writing too much, in my experience, can also be bad. Your brain gets fried and the output suffers – it's not fulfilling for you, the writer, or your audience (if you have one – or hope to keep one). Anyway, while the Ernest Hemingway method was [famously](https://www.theparisreview.org/interviews/4825/the-art-of-fiction-no-21-ernest-hemingway?ref=spyglass.org) to write first thing in the morning, often around 500 words (which was [the inspiration](https://parislemon.com/post/71985508959/500-words-a-day?ref=spyglass.org) for [an old site of mine](https://500ish.com/five-hundred-ish-83a94bbf0d6d?ref=spyglass.org)), and quit while there was still fuel in the tank and then go about his day, I've personally found my natural inclination is to write more words – and more often. So of course when I saw an encapsulation of Ian Fleming's days [making the rounds](https://x.com/oldstocky/status/2081440328863592571?ref=spyglass.org) on [social media](https://www.threads.com/@elizabethklinck/post/DbRMj4TCQc3?ref=spyglass.org), it resonated.[1](#one) To be clear, the image below is a simple schedule *recreated* from an interview the James Bond author [gave to *Playboy* in 1964](https://www.scribd.com/document/390148643/Playboy-Ian-Fleming-Interview-December-1964?ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) I don't know why it's going around [again](https://literary007.com/2013/09/14/a-day-in-the-life-of-ian-fleming-at-goldeneye/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) this week other than it's summer time and it's awesome. It's just about 5pm here,[3](#three) I'm just out of the pool, you know what that means... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/HOLC8nPXYAA_oMd.jpg) --- 1 And, of course, the whole "spy" motif as [part of the inspiration](https://spyglass.org/is-there-a-ghost-in-my-house/) for this very site. [↩](#) 2 [Other accounts of his writing routine and schedule](https://awritersden.wordpress.com/tag/ian-fleming/?ref=spyglass.org) vary slightly. [↩](#) 3 Though I'm in Italy at the moment, not Jamaica (as Fleming often was at [his estate, "Goldeneye"](https://awritersden.wordpress.com/tag/ian-fleming/?ref=spyglass.org)), which honestly feels *even more* like Bond. And, in fact, the opening of the mostly unfortunate *Quantum of Solace* [was filmed](https://department-m.agency/map/?ref=spyglass.org) right near where I am at the moment *\[[via Daring Fireball](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/07/23/bond-movie-filming-locations-map?ref=spyglass.org)\]*... [↩](#) ### Thoughts on "Open" Models URL: https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/ Last updated: 2026-07-27T20:05:05.000Z Everyone remembers Steve Jobs’ ['Thoughts on Flash'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoughts%5Fon%5FFlash?ref=spyglass.org) open letter, written in 2010, because it absolutely eviscerated Adobe and effectively started the long, slow death of one of their key technologies at the time. But a few years before that, Steve Jobs had other “thoughts” — on music, and [digital rights management](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital%5Frights%5Fmanagement?ref=spyglass.org) specifically. [The result of 'Thoughts on Music'](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2007/feb/06/stevejobssugg?ref=spyglass.org) was a much faster outcome.[1](#one) Within two years, DRM vanished from iTunes and the industry at large. It was a masterstroke by Jobs with Apple facing growing pressure — especially in Europe ([sound familiar?](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump-apple-eu/)) – to open up iTunes and cede control over the industry. But with his essay, Jobs shifted the blame and focus to the record labels (many of which were European-controlled!), knowing it was unlikely to dent the all-important (at the time) iPod sales. Anyway, this is the framing that pops into my head when thinking about [the open letter](https://images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Weights-and-American-AI-Leadership.pdf?ref=spyglass.org) from many of the biggest players in tech calling for 'open weight' models to underpin America’s AI leadership. The situation is far different — obviously, [given the geopolitics at play](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/) here if nothing else — but this feels a bit like the same type of rallying cry that’s going to be hard for the industry to ignore. And unlike with DRM, this isn't just one leader of one powerful company calling for change, *it's nearly all of them*. In fact, two of the three big players in AI that *weren’t* initial signatories, OpenAI and Google, almost instantly got on board once they saw the weight behind this movement. Both would point to the fact that they offer “open” models already — in fact, [they’re both](https://x.com/angelbrodin/status/2081081070900875376?ref=spyglass.org) pointing to [that very fact](https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2081039623422177765?s=20&ref=spyglass.org). Still, it’s impossible to ignore their initial absence. Either the other players kept them out of the loop to send a message, or they kept themselves out of the loop to try to avoid the outcome. There are a few other elephants that seem impossible to ignore in this particular waiting room — notably, Amazon — but the big one is obviously Anthropic.[2](#two) While it’s easy to see everyone just getting in line and saying, “yeah of course the US should be leading in open models”, it’s hard to see Anthropic saying the same. Because from Dario Amodei on down, they’ve railed against the notion in the past. Why? [Security, of course](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/). Critics will say it’s a fig leaf to cover their obvious conflict as [the de-facto leader in closed AI models](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) at the moment.[3](#three) But it’s still a pretty decent sized fig leaf! Each day seemingly brings new major security risks uncovered ([or created](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-chatbot-biological-weapons-poison-3d808e6c?st=7bY6ZG&reflink=desktopwebshare%5Fpermalink&ref=spyglass.org)) by AI. Of course, others would use the “offense is the best defense” argument here and they might be right too, if for nothing else than it feels like this genie may already be out of this bottle. So perhaps that’s the notion that causes Anthropic [to bend here](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/), if they do. But they’re undoubtedly going to hold out as long as they can. And they now find themselves with [an unlikely ally](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) in this regard: the US government! Yes, their old nemesis is now the one that seems most aligned with locking down the models rather than going the other way. They have [their own reasons](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/), of course. Security is still one of them, but geopolitics and negotiating leverage loom large as well. Everyone is conflicted here. NVIDIA has been leading the US open weight [charge of late](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) because they obviously don't want [one (or two)](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/) model(s) [to rule them all](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) and gain [the leverage](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) they now [enjoy](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/) over the industry. Jensen Huang also undoubtedly believes the "open" route will help remove at least some of the political pressure on their hardware. Is this the path to fully unlocking the Chinese market? Probably not, but if the US fully locks down models, NVIDIA is unlikely to *ever* grow their business there. (It is worth pointing out that NVIDIA is *not* open sourcing CUDA, even though that’s *exactly* what [Alibaba is doing](https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3361048/alibaba-targets-nvidias-dominant-software-ecosystem-open-source-ai-stack?ref=spyglass.org) in China with their would-be competitor in AI chip software.) Microsoft now seems all-in [on the idea](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%E2%98%81%EF%B8%8F%20Microsoft%E2%80%99s%20Hybrid%20AI%20Dreams) of being a “Switzerland” for models, and Satya Nadella [*clearly*](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20Satya%20Nadella%27s%20%22Frontier%20Ecosystem%22) doesn’t want to see OpenAI and Anthropic simply [run away](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) with the market — which is more than mildly awkward given [the ownership stake](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) Microsoft has in each! I mean, they [still own](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) around 25% of OpenAI! Speaking of awkward, how weird is it that no sooner does [Meta spend *hundreds of billions of dollars*](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) to [shift](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) their focus [away from](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) open weight models, do such models become ground zero for this debate? They’re signed on to this letter, but their actual actions are [mainly](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) in[ the closed camp](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) for now. Was this [*another*](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) big mistake for Meta? Perhaps a key thing worth pointing out: the letter doesn’t suggest open weights is the *only* path forward, simply that the US shouldn’t ban them or even just dissuade the building and use of them. In this world, the closed models still have their place, but the question left unanswered is what that place is relative to the open models and vice versa. In some ways, this has been the debate in AI from the get-go. Again, [Meta bet](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) on open before they switched to closed. Alibaba [did the same](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/alibaba-unveils-third-closed-source-ai-model-in-focus-on-profit?utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) in China, before they just [shifted *back*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/alibaba-s-qwen-unveils-preview-of-flagship-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org) to open in light of President Xi Jinping’s [recent outlining](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-promotes-chinas-commitment-ai-access-speech-shanghai-conference-2026-07-17/?ref=spyglass.org) of China’s stance. That stance is obviously that stance because they’re not at the forefront of the frontier at the moment, otherwise it would probably be a very different stance! So yeah, conflicts all around. Still, the shift towards "open" has a groundswell, at least right now. But the main reason seems decidedly capitalist: [cost](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/). The price of frontier AI keeps growing more untenable — *both to use and to build*, as Google can attest this week with the hit to their stock price on the news of [yet another jack up in CapEx](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/). Meanwhile, everyone from the biggest enterprises like Microsoft to the smallest startups are feeling the token burn. If someone can come up with the “good enough” open model… unfortunately, it seems like it was a Chinese company, Moonshot, that just did it with Kimi K3. But even that is not so straightforward! Because these models are only *open weight* and *not fully open source*, what exactly goes into making them, and what they’re going to output for certain queries is… largely unknown. And potentially problematic! Further, there’s the fundamental question of just how much they relied on distillation from the closed frontier models. And if those go away, you have a real chicken-and-egg problem. This is all [angling towards](https://stratechery.com/2026/whos-afraid-of-chinese-models/?ref=spyglass.org) a world where frontier models remain closed but are perhaps used to distill open variants that are closer to the cutting edge after some set period of time. Yes, this is essentially what OpenAI, Google, and others [*have been* doing](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/), but if it’s more formalized and streamlined, everyone might feel better. Especially if those models can then *legally* be used to distill others – at least in the US. It would keep some power in the hands of the frontier, while trickling down more flexibility with some regularity. But who knows, that’s just a guess *this week*. After [one hell of a week of news](https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/). Still, the [vibes](https://x.com/levie/status/2081054531908247937?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) right [now](https://x.com/AMD/status/2081379093128343768?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) are [clear](https://x.com/finkd/status/2080733191237771648?ref=spyglass.org). [Everyone](https://x.com/firstadopter/status/2081370130873737712?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) seems to be [falling in line](https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/2080664685792371173?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) quickly behind this notion of not only protecting "open" models, but pushing for the US to combat China to take the lead in their build and spread. Well, everyone except Anthropic.[4](#four) And their strange bedfellow here, the US government. And that obviously matters – especially when the stakes are higher than, say, DRM.[5](#five) --- 1 It's really weird/sad/annoying that Apple no longer hosts these pivotal posts on their site. You'd think they would embrace the history and importance?! [↩](#) 2 Other notable ones missing [include](https://x.com/Hesamation/status/2081480444109791585?ref=spyglass.org) Oracle, Intel, Databricks, Snowflake, and yes, Apple. Though none of those, aside from [perhaps Apple](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) ([thanks to Google](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/)), really make their own large models at the moment. To that end, SpaceX/SpaceXAI (and Tesla) also weren't initially included in the list, though [Elon Musk quickly voiced his support](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2080672505660834163?ref=spyglass.org) publicly as well. ([As has Marc Benioff](https://x.com/Benioff/status/2081059762918277429?ref=spyglass.org), though Salesforce hasn't officially signed on.) [↩](#) 3 The same rationale Apple turns to time and time again, I might point out. [↩](#) 4 And it's still not *entirely* clear that OpenAI is fully on board with this given that their [apparent actions behind the scenes suggest otherwise!](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/technology/open-source-silicon-valley-china.html?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 5 [Man, does the industry miss Steve Jobs' voice and gravitas right now...](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) [↩](#) ### How to Lose AI in 10 Days URL: https://spyglass.org/open-vs-closed-ai/ Last updated: 2026-07-26T20:34:11.000Z I've been on the road this past week-plus and as such, haven't been able to Monitor the Situation™ with AI in real time – which it feels like is needed even more so at the moment given the constant stream of news and reports. Not even about the latest model breakthroughs and products, but just about the *ongoing debate* over "open" versus closed models, which itself has turned into sort of a proxy war for America versus China. But it's also not that simple – not nearly. In fact, it's so intertwined and convoluted that it makes the Marvel Cinematic Universe look like a quaint, cohesive narrative. As such, I feel the need to write this out a bit, just to try to wrap my own head around it. To keep things simple and streamlined, let's just focus on *the last 10 days*: - **July 16:** The Kimi K3 model is [released](https://www.kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3?ref=spyglass.org) with performance close enough to the frontier – actually *besting* those models in [some use cases](https://venturebeat.com/ai/chinas-moonshot-ai-releases-kimi-k3-the-largest-open-source-model-ever-rivaling-top-u-s-systems?ref=spyglass.org) – that basically everyone starts freaking out. Is this a second "[DeepSeek Moment](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/)" or actually something *more*? Moonshot AI, the Chinese company behind the model hasn't yet released the weights, but promises to by tomorrow (July 27). - *That same day*, Hugging Face [disclosed](https://huggingface.co/blog/security-incident-july-2026?ref=spyglass.org) a breach of their systems but doesn't give more details. - [Reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/google-gemini-launch-delayed-as-tech-falls-short-of-internal-goals?ref=spyglass.org) surfaced that Gemini 3.5 Pro is now "months" behind schedule, which given that it's mid-July and the model [was promised](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) in June, [duh](https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/). - **July 17:** At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, Chinese President Xi Jinping gives a keynote address [calling for](https://mattsheehan.substack.com/p/xi-jinpings-big-ai-speech-annotated) more collaboration around "open" models and seemingly planting a flag for China's strategy. This is amidst [reports](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-promotes-chinas-commitment-ai-access-speech-shanghai-conference-2026-07-17/?ref=spyglass.org) that China was debating restricting their homegrown models. - Dean Ball, [writes up his Kimi thoughts](https://x.com/deanwball/status/2078133895766114412?ref=spyglass.org), outlining what he believes is China's strategy here to beat the US in AI and making the case that if the US pushes open weights, it will necessarily deter the current AI build out at the frontier. He believes the US will act to try to keep the current status quo in place. [Seemingly](https://x.com/deanwball/status/2078133895766114412/quotes?ref=spyglass.org) *a lot* of people do not like these thoughts, in particular coming from someone who now, of course, [*works at OpenAI*](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/18/dean-ball-openai?ref=spyglass.org). - [A study suggests](https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/how-far-behind-the-frontier-are-leading-open-weight-models-on-cyber?ref=spyglass.org) the gap between the frontier and open weight models may now be down to 4 to 7 months, from 6 to 10 months last year. - **July 18:** [A report](https://sfstandard.com/2026/07/18/ai-s-new-political-donor-class-already-outspending-big-tech-s-last-one/?ref=spyglass.org) that OpenAI and Anthropic employees are far outpacing those at their Big Tech brethren when it comes to political donations... - Alibaba moves to open source their SAIL software which [competes with](https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3361048/alibaba-targets-nvidias-dominant-software-ecosystem-open-source-ai-stack?ref=spyglass.org) NVIDIA's CUDA in AI chip software. - "Woke lobotomized models" is the recently departed US "AI Czar" David Sacks [new framing](https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2078462275497988199?ref=spyglass.org) for Claude in the wake of Kimi... - **July 19:** Alibaba then quickly follows Moonshot in [announcing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/alibaba-s-qwen-unveils-preview-of-flagship-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org) Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, which they say will be open weight – which would be a reversal from Alibaba's [last few releases](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/alibaba-unveils-third-closed-source-ai-model-in-focus-on-profit?utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) which had been closed (after initially starting with the "open" model). - [Reports suggest](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/china-s-moonshot-plans-ipo-in-six-months-after-ai-breakthrough?ref=spyglass.org) Moonshot will aim to IPO within the next 6 months on the heels of the Kimi K3 momentum. - Sacks then [rants](https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2078826291638522127?ref=spyglass.org) about how Anthropic and OpenAI want to eliminate open source competition to maintain the current "duopoly" situation. - That's not a rant, [*this* is a rant](https://x.com/USWREMichael/status/2078924719538262107?ref=spyglass.org): Under Secretary of War Emil Michael labels Ball the "supreme village idiot" of AI for his essay (and stance). - **July 20:** The first [reports](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/20/ai-us-china-open-source-kimi?ref=spyglass.org) that the US is debating restricting access to the Chinese "open" models. - Is the "open" movement as simple as China implementing [a "dumping" strategy](https://x.com/growing%5Fdaniel/status/2078864357694243129?s=46&t=BZozRDbj0-J%5FGE99plY7Uw&ref=spyglass.org) to undercut and thus, destabilize the market? Is Kimi and the like really just 'Temu AI'? - Moonshot had to halt Kimi subscriptions [due to demand](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/chinas-moonshot-pauses-kimi-subscriptions-080317250.html?ref=spyglass.org). - [Ben Thompson makes the case](https://stratechery.com/2026/whos-afraid-of-chinese-models/?ref=spyglass.org) for the US forcing the AI labs to allow for distillation for other US companies. - [Bill Gurley writes an op-ed](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/20/open-model-ai-is-good-competition-anthropic-openai/?ref=spyglass.org) arguing for open models (seemingly conflating *actual* open source with open weights but I digress...) - **July 21:** Scott Bessent goes on TV to [threaten sanctions](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-21/bessent-says-us-will-scrutinize-chinese-ai-models-for-ip-theft?ref=spyglass.org) over IP theft around AI distillation. [Reports](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-hold-ai-talks-september-sources-say-2026-07-21/?ref=spyglass.org) indicate this is all positioning ahead of the next talks between China and the US on AI in September. - OpenAI [admits](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/21/openai-says-hugging-face-breach-caused-by-one-its-models?ref=spyglass.org)/[brags](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2079661332614300104?ref=spyglass.org) that they were the ones that (unintentionally) hacked Hugging Face due to GPT-5.6 Sol (and a new, unreleased model) breaking out of their sandbox. They note they've been working with the company to fix the situation, which Hugging Face [praises](https://x.com/ClementDelangue/status/2079670308156645882?ref=spyglass.org). - Hugging Face also [notes](https://www.businessinsider.com/hugging-face-hack-openai-rogue-ai-china-cybersecurity-2026-7?ref=spyglass.org) that because of the current security restrictions on the frontier models, they had to turn to Chinese open models to help halt the hack. Pretty damning indictment of current policy... - Google ships a few new Gemini 3.5 'Flash' models (still no 'Pro') including one focused around cyber security. - **July 22:** Michael Kratsios, the science and tech advisor to the President, furthers the Chinese distillation fears/rhetoric, [specifically calling out](https://x.com/mkratsios47/status/2079933645888880708?ref=spyglass.org) Moonshot for "large scale distillation against U.S. models" (and also illegally accessing some NVIDIA servers/chips). - The "Little Tech Association" – [nearly 200 startups](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/22/startup-founders-urge-trump-not-to-shut-off-chinese-open-weight-ai-01008992?ref=spyglass.org) – sends a letter to Trump and Howard Lutnick arguing for continued access to open weight models, including the Chinese variants. - **July 23:** [Pushback against](https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/23/experts-say-exploiting-anthropics-fable-isnt-how-kimi-k3-got-so-good/?ref=spyglass.org) the notion that K3 is mainly the result of distillation. - The [*FT* publishes a post](https://www.ft.com/content/fd3e703e-7ff7-4561-b039-54b280e4952d?accessToken=zwAAAZ-W5Kv2kdP9PnA-f%5FdFYdOwOVSygOSVLQ.MEYCIQClpjjXmXfgw1GyJJcV30JzRNw99MghzqUIaiML%5F%5FVLywIhAPc-dbwbTDWGvUE1oGTO%5FUO62n-QoYiZG1J4fmu4vdh%5F&sharetype=gift&token=02e7d651-1c9d-4ddf-a19a-6668f2a7523b&syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) outlining China's "open" AI strategy as a sort of new '[Belt & Road Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt%5Fand%5FRoad%5FInitiative?ref=spyglass.org)' for tech. - **July 24:** Jensen Huang signs up for X [clearly just to post](https://x.com/JensenHuang/status/2080643682408321103?ref=spyglass.org) the "Open Wights & America AI Leadership" [letter](https://images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Weights-and-American-AI-Leadership.pdf?ref=spyglass.org) signed by seemingly everyone except the current three leading model makers: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. - Sam Altman later [tweets](https://x.com/sama/status/2080683363174945065?ref=spyglass.org) in support of the notion, [as does](https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/2081026488158040181?ref=spyglass.org) Sundar Pichai. - Crickets from Anthropic – but [some shade](https://x.com/Mononofu/status/2080938420202078257?ref=spyglass.org)! Oh, and a new model! Opus 5 [clearly aims](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-5?ref=spyglass.org) to take some (pricing) pressure off of Fable... - **July 25:** OpenAI formally [adds](https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/openai-quietly-signs-letter-from-nvidia-microsoft-and-meta-warning-about-dangers-of-premature-restrictions-on-open-weight-ai-models-as-the-white-house-accuses-china-of-stealing-from-anthropic?ref=spyglass.org) their actual name to the letter, just as new reports suggest they are quietly but heavily lobbying, alongside Anthropic, against the open weights push in Washington. - You know what might help push Washington over the edge to keep tighter controls on AI? The notion that it [can be used for](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-chatbot-biological-weapons-poison-3d808e6c?st=7bY6ZG&reflink=desktopwebshare%5Fpermalink&ref=spyglass.org) "deadly biological weapons"... That's 10 full days with an insane amount of activity – activity that could reshape the world technologically, societally, politically, *and* geopolitically. --- **Update**: With my mind now reset, some further thoughts on the topic of the push towards "open" models: [Thoughts on “Open” ModelsThe open letter on open weights feels familiar yet different…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1cd27b30-7207-4463-8369-92b7b7a2e079.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-26--2026--10_26_35-PM-b62038cd-9eaf-4d8c-b47d-931131cfdb54.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-weight-ai-models/) ### Google (Again) Clearly Needs to Unite Their AI Clans URL: https://spyglass.org/google-gemini-fiasco/ Last updated: 2026-08-05T22:19:40.000Z [Google Gemini Launch Delayed as Tech Falls Short of Internal GoalsAlphabet Inc.’s Google is months behind schedule on delivering Gemini 3.5 Pro, its most powerful flagship AI model, because the company has been taking time to try to improve its capabilities, particularly in coding, according to people familiar with the matter.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-d032232b-a457-4df4-b52e-56f20e7c15a8.png)BloombergJulia Love and Davey Alba![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-9c870fa4-5b2d-437e-aaf8-96a1fcc92369.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/google-gemini-launch-delayed-as-tech-falls-short-of-internal-goals?ref=spyglass.org) As bad as things may be product-wise (not to mention [potentially legally](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/)?) at OpenAI at the moment with the [stumbling out of the gate](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/) of the ChatGPT [super crap “Super App”](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/), it could be worse. It could be Google. A company which not only lacks a “Super App” but lacks *a true frontier model* at the moment. It wasn't a great look when [Google I/O came and went](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) in May without Gemini 3.5 Pro. But far worse was that Sundar Pichai said on stage that the flagship model would be coming next month (which Google echoed in [a blog post](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-5/?ref=spyglass.org)). That would have been June. *It's now the end of July*. Google says the model is still in testing but it's now not just "not a great look", ***it's a bad look***. This is a $4.2T company seemingly unable to compete with several far smaller players. But worse is that this is after the company already [moved heaven and earth](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/) once to get out of their own way to effectively compete in AI. [And it worked](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/). They had caught up or [perhaps](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) even [*surpassed*](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) everyone else. The timely analogy would be to England going up 1-0 on Argentina and then... shifting to a defensive strategy and getting run over as Argentina stormed on to the World Cup final. But whereas a few years ago, the problem seemed to be [just as much about timidity](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) – that is, Google had much of the technology ready to roll internally (as you might hope given their central role in inventing the ideas behind LLMs), they were just afraid to release it – now it seems firmly rooted in bureaucracy: > The delay has been a source of frustration for Google engineers, AI researchers and managers, many of whom are concerned the company risks losing an edge in the market as rivals Anthropic and OpenAI produce models that exceed Gemini’s capabilities, according to 10 current and former employees. Google has multiple layers of stakeholders involved in preparing models for release, working to [weave AI across a vast product portfolio](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/chatgpt-success-drives-google-to-put-ai-in-all-its-products?ref=spyglass.org), including search, maps and YouTube, which can cause delays, said the people, who declined to be named discussing internal concerns. Of course, that's also nothing new at Google. That's largely what was blamed for the 'Bard' fiasco. You know, Google's first attempt to catch up with ChatGPT. That stumble was seemingly only corrected when DeepMind and Google Brain were united under one leader, Demis Hassabis, with a single, unified vision for AI. But it seems like, as was the case for OpenAI, coding sort of blindsided them. [Pichai said as much](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Admits%20Being%20Behind%20in%20AI%20Coding) after I/O that Google was behind in this regard, which must have been a particularly embarrassing thing to admit for the company. But whereas OpenAI was seemingly able to course-correct quickly with Codex, Google has seemingly not been able to. Perhaps it's [as simple](https://spyglass.org/super-apps-last-all-summer-long/) as one of those big company versus small company dynamics, where being more nimble actually matters more than pure resources. Then again, resources also seem to matter here quite a bit: > Google’s popular products are a gateway to generative AI for everyday people, and can yield data that makes their answers smarter. But encouraging leadership of every department to move in the same direction is like trying to boil an ocean, one ex-employee said. When mandates shift or efforts end up duplicated in multiple departments, it gets even more difficult to maintain a cohesive strategy, current and former employees said. It’s also a challenge for any one offering to get the resources it would need to succeed, and to gain traction in the market, they said. I mean, Google probably should hope it's that simple and not as bad as [the Llama situation](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) for Meta, as there are definitely shades here of the "Behemoth" model of Llama 4 which was [perpetually promised](https://www.engadget.com/ai/metas-behemoth-llama-4-model-might-still-be-months-away-221240585.html?ref=spyglass.org) but never came. And soon, Llama itself was [put out to pasture](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/). There are no real signals of that here, but well, [there are signs](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%89%20Is%20Google%20Behind%20In%20AI%3F%20Again%3F!) that other things are amiss internally at Google at the moment. > After the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 sparked concerns that Google’s search engine would become obsolete, the company declared a “code red” — a useful tactic for cutting through the layers of bureaucracy and internal competition that often slow Google’s product efforts. But now, racing in AI is the normal state of the company, one employee said. > > Google co-founder Sergey Brin and others were advocating for Google to move faster to seize opportunities in AI coding, but their efforts were slowed by competing factions within the company, two former employees said. Cloud computing unit Google Cloud, research lab Google DeepMind and the team behind the Android operating system are all building AI coding tools for developers, with involvement from some consumer product teams, too, people familiar with the work said. Yeah, this is *Highlander*, [not chat apps](https://thenextweb.com/news/rant-google-does-not-need-5-chat-apps?ref=spyglass.org), Google. [There can be only one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqcLjcSloXs&ref=spyglass.org). Or, if you prefer another movie analogy, it's clearly time to [unite the clans](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvqr76fprLc&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org). Again. Google's earnings report is certainly set up to be interesting this week. --- **Update August 5, 2026**: Well, this is one way to shake things up... [Google’s Mind Is Now Less DeepHistoric talent is leaving DeepMind and Google, but that may ultimately \*help\* Google’s Gemini efforts…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-961f4894-0435-449e-b8dd-adcba48e014a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-5--2026--11_13_17-PM-93e89aaf-5402-4fb9-8f89-92583c82d4ce.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-deepmind-hassabis-dean-gemini/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Google ‘I’ Hold the ‘O’Some thoughts on the Google I/O 2026 keynote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6e44fb69-9396-4f75-a9a8-3f5e0861c7b2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-05-20-at-1.09.52---PM-ca7c9b9c-be8a-4df5-b996-72688cd19d65.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) [Google Isn’t Lazy, It’s Timid. As It Sadly Must Be.Provocative soundbites aside, it’s obvious why Google isn’t OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8de2501b-18ae-4b8e-8ccb-f633cbe3743e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Lazy-Engineer-e76b0dae-046b-4f62-99a0-07e02e5d4109.webp)](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) [Google Slams on the AI GasDoes it leave Apple in the dust?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-b2622cb6-e432-4013-a90b-066639129c4f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2025--12_27_01-PM-3-cfc18509-77cd-4b84-87e3-7d74bebe8f5d.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) ### OpenAI Makes ChatGPT ChatGPT Again URL: https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/ Last updated: 2026-07-18T08:18:40.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-17-at-4.55.52---PM-1.png) Let's give OpenAI some credit, once they realize they made a mistake, they act quickly to correct it. Today's case in point: with [an update](https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2077928427936710901?ref=spyglass.org), ChatGPT now features ChatGPT once again. No, that's not a joke, and yes, it does speak to a very obvious self-own. [To quickly recap](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/): the strangest thing about the "Super App" update to ChatGPT a week ago was that they completely buried the actual chat functionality. It was shoved into the sidebar and made into a sub-feature of the service. A service which, mind you, was still called *ChatGPT*. But instead of that brand front-and-center, the new app launched into something confusingly called 'ChatGPT Work'. As it turned out, ChatGPT Work wasn't ChatGPT for Work, but OpenAI's Claude Cowork competitor. And even though this new app was clearly an extension and expansion of Codex, their Claude Code competitor, that too was now a secondary option. There were several other UI issues to boot – and many of those remain. But first and foremost, OpenAI just needed to make this new ChatGPT app far less confusing and jarring to actually use. And now they have: gone is 'ChatGPT Work' front and center at start, back is simply 'ChatGPT' with our old, trusted chatbox asking you to simply 'Message ChatGPT'. To be clear, 'Work' is still there, but it's now a secondary tab in that main ChatGPT area – just as it is on the web, which as I noted last week was the far better UI. Also back are your 'Projects' and 'Recents' (recent chats) in the sidebar. 'Temporary Chats' too! Again, OpenAI basically made ChatGPT ChatGPT again. Albeit a more bloated and less performant version. [Still no GPT-Live](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/). Baby steps. Codex is here too, in that same main drop-down. You can also set it as the default if you're coming up from the old Codex app (which auto-updated into this app). It's still the same non-native, now-Electron-y app that those users are used to. That still sucks for users of the old ChatGPT Mac app (this version seems to use a shit ton of virtual memory), but you can also still use that for now as 'ChatGPT (Classic)'. And everything now apparently syncs between desktop, mobile, and web. Why it didn't in the first place, I don't know. This all felt a bit rushed out the door. In case you haven't heard, OpenAI has had [one hell of a week](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/). Anyway, all of that is in a positive direction. But it also begs the question as to why on Earth OpenAI didn't realize all of this obvious stuff before launch? Perhaps beyond [being rushed](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/) to get the first "[Super App](https://spyglass.org/super-app/)" out the door, it seems like a situation where the team was far too focused on simply cloning Claude. Specifically, what Anthropic had done with the Claude desktop app. This new ChatGPT app was – and remains– largely that. And you could argue it's even more like that now *because it actually opens into chat mode*, just like Claude does. As I noted, this was perhaps the most confusing thing of all. OpenAI cloned Claude except for this one key bit of functionality. Now they have that too. Clearly, they were too Codex-pilled. [We all get why](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/). Claude Code (and Cowork) has been killing it, rocketing Anthropic into not just a viable OpenAI competitor, but into a more highly valued company bringing in more money. OpenAI's answer, Codex, was clearly showing progress in combating that turning of the tides, so they decided to go all-in, [chat be damned](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/). The problem is that pesky one billion or so ChatGPT users that OpenAI seemingly forgot they had. Obviously they didn't forget, they just view that user base as far less valuable than the ones focused on coding and other agentic angles. And yeah, I mean it is literally less valuable of a user base when it comes to bringing in money *right now*. I might argue that longer term, if OpenAI really believes they can [crack the AI advertising nut](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/), having the widest base of users would be far more valuable, but it's still unclear if that will happen. In that light, we can see the dilemma. But there were also probably about a dozen better ways to do this roll-out – as highlighted by how fast they're fixing these things – and they just missed the mark. While they undoubtedly knew there would be some backlash, they probably didn't realize there would be *this much*. Again. All that points to perhaps [a disturbing trend](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) where OpenAI doesn't really understand their user base. Which you almost can understand given how they clearly stumbled into ChatGPT in the first place. Still, here they are with those billion users. A problem that all of their competitors would love to have. But still a problem if you want to fundamentally change what you are [as a product](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/).. But those are bigger, existential issues. All I wanted was chat back in the ChatGPT app. Front and center. And I got it. It's not perfect. It's still bloated. But at least it's usable again now and not a confusing mess of ideas out of the box. --- **Update July 18, 2026**: Some good/fun pushback from John Gruber who thinks I'm going too easy on OpenAI for quickly fixing some (but hardly all) of the issues: [MG Siegler: ‘OpenAI Makes ChatGPT ChatGPT Again’Link to: https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-3cc4175f-bce4-4de2-8200-62019b9fd07e.ico)Daring Fireball![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/df-wide-card-6090f6ea-237b-4f01-8156-746c9fac201e.png)](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/07/17/chatgpt-siegler?ref=spyglass.org) Two excerpts to call out: > The only good solution is to pretend this last week didn’t happen and go back to calling ChatGPT “ChatGPT” and Codex “Codex”. If they want to give one of them a new name, don’t call ChatGPT “ChatGPT Classic” — instead rename Codex “ChatGPT Codex”. There, done. All problems solved. This occurred to me after I published, but while Gruber ([in another post](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/07/17/openai-chatgpt-mess?ref=spyglass.org)) analogizes this to the whole 'New Coke'/'Coke Classic' fiasco in the 1980s, what if a more modern analog is when [Netflix unveiled 'Qwikster'](https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/10/11/117521/netflixs-qwikster-debacle/?ref=spyglass.org). The year [was 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=%5B48%5D-,In%20July%202011,-%2C%20Netflix%20announced%20it), and the company really wanted to go all-in on their streaming efforts and viewed the DVD-by-mail business as yesterday's news. The problem was that to millions of their loyal users it wasn't yesterday's news, it was the service they still knew and loved and used. Worse, they saw it as a ploy to raise prices. The stock crashed, millions quit, and Netflix had to backtrack, fast. It was the one huge mistake Reed Hastings made in his tenure as CEO of Netflix and now it's a literal case study in what not to do. That was a worse situation, but mainly because software can be fixed faster than physical/logistics changes to your business. Also, Netflix was a public company at that point, OpenAI, famously, is not (yet). One has to wonder what the market reaction would have been to this ChatGPT shitshow... But it's also worth noting that overall, Hastings *wasn't wrong* with the call, he was just too early – which I noted was a possibility here [as well in my original post](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/). Regardless, Hastings didn't read his room correctly, just as OpenAI didn't here. That said: > The Codex app is clearly capable of amazing things. But the reason that there are a billion users of ChatGPT but only a few million users of Codex — [by OpenAI’s own accounting](https://openai.com/index/codex-for-knowledge-work/?ref=spyglass.org) — is because ChatGPT is simple and focused and based on a single coherent concept: chat. The frustration of the eggheads now running product at OpenAI is obvious: how come these hundreds of millions of morons using ChatGPT aren’t running Codex instead? Somehow they thought they could fix this by giving Codex the ChatGPT name. This is like if Apple had gotten rid of the Messages app on the Mac and replaced it with Xcode, which they renamed to “Messages”. Now they’ve put an “iMessage” tab in the Xcode sidebar and re-released the Messages app everyone knew and loved as “Messages Classic”. > > OpenAI separated itself from its competition — especially Anthropic — by being good at product. Now their product decisions are being made by people who don’t understand why Apple makes both iMovie and Final Cut Pro, or GarageBand and Logic Pro. I'm compelled by the idea that there should be a 'Pro' version of ChatGPT and a simple version for consumers. Which, yes, is how it basically was with Codex! Sure, it's more work when it comes to upkeep, but it feels like we're still a ways away from everyone wanting to use all the agentic capabilities. Especially since it's so bloated and convoluted. Could they even get a billion users had they started here? I doubt it! I know OpenAI hopes that's not the case, that everyone will *want* to switch to Codex – aka New ChatGPT – but that's projecting fueled by their own business needs. A very stupid – [and dangerous](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) – way to do product development, obviously. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The ChatGPT “Super App” Sort of Super SucksEven if it’s ultimately the right call, the new Mac app is a mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-83397062-1d7d-433d-beea-9cac4178f901.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.41.00---PM-89417ed8-9160-4a52-ab4f-29edd85bd7ec.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/) [“Chat is dead.”As OpenAI morphs ChatGPT, there are opportunities and risks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-93aae074-929e-4bbc-bee3-c2df6d3a78ee.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-7--2026--03_56_32-PM-1-0468551b-bb77-4a3b-8e79-8810abd9842e.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) [OpenAI Moves Fast and Breaks ChatGPTThe GPT-5 roll-out backlash is a product story as old as time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-f087ca45-ec2c-4a8b-b98b-88c4afdddc4d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/46e523e7-0f41-455a-abfb-020babfc391b-1-e919d322-a6fc-4a37-9a5b-b2b8806e4029.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) ### Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube Faster Than... URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-vs-youtube/ Last updated: 2026-07-17T16:20:24.000Z Help, I've been YouTube-pilled. I realize this is rather a ridiculous sentence to write. Not because it's absurd to be sucked down the YouTube rabbit hole, but because it's 2026\. The service launched *21 years ago*. It's old enough to drink. It's the second-most-visited site in the world, only behind that of its parent company, Google. Isn't *everyone* YouTube-pilled by now? And it's not like I'm new to the service. According to [my profile](https://www.youtube.com/@MGSiegler?ref=spyglass.org), I joined on February 18, 2006 – just four days after its first birthday, and almost exactly nine months before it was acquired by Google. But in my 20 years on the service, I've never really gotten into it. I mean, sure I've used it, even a lot, because again, *it's the second most popular site on the internet* and has been for years. But largely not in the way that I assume many have been for a long time now. Yes, I've even posted a few videos here and there – creator alert! – but mainly to embed them on *TechCrunch* back in the day (though only one video is still up – [an iPhone 4S test from 14 years ago](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g80DAzGtCBI&ref=spyglass.org)!).[1](#one) But I just never really got into using it as *a destination*. Most of my consumption came either through embeds on other sites or going there to search for something in particular, like many a 'how-to' video when I first became a father. Anyway, something shifted for me over the past year or so. I'm not really sure why, but now I find myself on YouTube constantly. Consuming, constantly. To the point where this post has been sitting in the back of my mind for a while now. Because I think about it relative to the other streaming services. It just feels like YouTube has taken over. Again, on some level, I know I'm *way late* to such an observation – and increasingly, the metrics bear this out. But whereas it used to feel like Netflix was the undisputed king of streaming, it now feels like YouTube snuck up and stole that crown. And I say "snuck up" because for years, YouTube has been disparaged by Hollywood and those other streaming services as sort of amateur hour. I mean that quite literally. They all scoffed at UGC as just sort of crap that no one actually watches. Obviously that's true for a lot of such content, but it overlooks what YouTube actually is: the perfect vessel for video on the internet. *All video*. While it started with UGC – well, and perhaps pirated Hollywood fare – it's now the home to pretty much everything. It's also increasingly the birthplace of not only the next generation of Hollywood content, but the talent as well. Everyone was [waiting](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) and [watching](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) for AI to disrupt the industry, [but it was YouTube that clearly has this year](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/). Again, it feels silly to write this. I mean, no shit! But whereas Hollywood has long been shitting themselves about Netflix – going as far as to be [adamantly](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) (and [foolishly](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/)) against their [thwarted](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) takeover of Warner Bros – it feels like they're now awakening to reality: that YouTube, not Netflix, controls the market. Netflix, of course, knows this. And they [tried to argue this](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) to their advantage in the Warner Bros pursuit. But it largely fell upon deaf ears. And now, having lost Warner Bros, it feels like Netflix is increasingly [freaking out](https://puck.news/ted-sarandos-youtube-panic-inside-netflixs-cheap-content-pivot/?ref=spyglass.org) about the situation. What [started as](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) striking deals left and right for video podcasts has now branched into [other](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/good-mythical-morning-coming-netflix-rhett-link-1236643857/?ref=spyglass.org) shorter-form [content](https://deadline.com/2026/07/alan-chikin-chow-alans-universe-netflix-youtube-1236980943/?ref=spyglass.org) that has proven popular on YouTube. If the [old goal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) was for Netflix to become HBO before HBO could become Netflix, the new goal may be for Netflix to become YouTube before YouTube destroys Netflix. That's hyperbole, of course. Netflix isn't going anywhere. But they're also, by at least some metrics, no longer growing. Certainly not as they once were. And subscribers aside, [the real concern now](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) is about **engagement**. This not only helps to mitigate churn, but it's also now vital as they ramp up [their advertising efforts](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/). This has led the push into more and more live content, including, most notably, sports – a space the company previously said they had no interest in, [of course](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/). But as history has proven [time](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/) and [time](https://spyglass.org/raw-is-streaming-war/) again, Netflix loves to backtrack. As they should! Situations change and Netflix should change along with them. Most recently, this includes [their stance on movie theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/), which was obviously in part tied to the aforementioned Warner Bros pursuit, but is also [continuing](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/) even with that now over ([as predicted](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)). And soon, it will undoubtedly include UGC too. I'm not saying they're going to become YouTube, but only because that seems impossible in 2026\. YouTube is already YouTube. It's not something Netflix, or anyone else, can just throw money at. Sure, they can throw the money to pick off some shows/creators here and there, but they'll never be able to get the full corpus of content that YouTube now gets – for free, I might add. We're *way* past that tipping point. Netflix would undoubtedly say that they don't want all that content, just the *best*.[2](#two) But, if they're being honest, I think they probably would like to swap spots with YouTube right now. Netflix is currently a $300B market cap company, but their stock has been depressed over the past year, down 40+%. And they're actually not far above where they were *five years ago*. Yes, that's better than Disney, which is actually *down 45%+* from where they were five years ago – *and flat over the past decade-plus* following the comedown from the pandemic streaming surge – but this is not the path towards becoming [the first trillion-dollar media company](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/). YouTube, on the other hand, might be [valued at](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) $500B were it a standalone company these days. Thanks to Google now breaking such things out, we know that their revenue is actually *higher* than that of Netflix – $60B vs. $45B last year. Netflix is growing revenue a bit faster, but that's largely thanks to said advertising ramp. YouTube is already ramped and now coming for Netflix's core business, subscriptions, a business which is growing faster than Netflix's. Have I mentioned that YouTube doesn't have the cost of content that Netflix does? Google doesn't break out YouTube's actual profits, but given the likely margin difference, it undoubtedly also brings in more profits than Netflix does – perhaps to the tune of $15B to $20B versus about $11B for Netflix last year. And that's with YouTube paying out 55% of revenue to creators, of course. Anyway, they're both great businesses, but it feels like YouTube is increasingly in a better strategic position than Netflix is. Which is undoubtedly why Netflix keeps encroaching on their territory, even though YouTube isn't really getting into Netflix's core business – at least not yet. Again, yes they're selling subscriptions, but they're not commissioning expensive Hollywood content. They tried that back in the day and it didn't work. Even if individual shows, like *Cobra Kai*, [*did* work](https://mgs.blog/-48b680502dff?ref=spyglass.org) – ironically, eventually on Netflix! To me, the key to YouTube is now twofold. First, it's the sheer breadth and depth of the content. Again, this was once viewed as a weakness relative to Hollywood, but now it's a massive strength. There is literally something for everyone to watch, even me. Yes, this has long been the case, but in our age of streaming inundation, YouTube's focus on shorter form content I think is helping them differentiate. Everyone now knows the feeling of being weighed down by choice, but especially if that choice means deciding which two-hour-plus movie to sit down and watch. That was always a massive time commitment – a huge chunk of your actual day. But in our era of abundant choices, it's harder than ever to justify such "spend". TV shows are easier because they're usually shorter. But you know what's usually shorter still? YouTube videos.[3](#three) Better yet, unlike when the longer form Netflix content is over, YouTube can offer you other shorter content if you have some more time. Once you finish your movie on Netflix, it seems unreasonable to think that you're immediately going to spend another two hours to watch another movie! With that in mind, I suspect Netflix's real play with YouTube-like content will be as "filler". That is, content that can fit in the crevices of time between their main content. Maybe you just watched a movie about the Trojan War and want some more content along those lines. How about a video podcast that dives into it? Or just another shorter video on the general topic? This is where YouTube destroys Netflix right now, obviously. They both have excellent recommendation engines, but only YouTube has the content that truly matters for real-time follow-up content consumption. The other key aspect of YouTube is even more obvious: the UI. This has been an especially interesting revelation to me since I've long found Google's UI chops a bit lacking. But YouTube has always been pretty strong in this regard, and it feels so honed in at this point that it just makes Netflix feel and look bloated by comparison. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-5.27.17---PM.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-5.27.49---PM.png) Netflix's UI isn't awful, it's just BIG. YouTube is able to cram in a lot more tiles for content you might be interested in – this is true on the web and on TVs, an area of increasing importance to YouTube, of course. As you undoubtedly know by now, YouTube is actually *ahead* of Netflix when it comes to viewership on televisions, which is wild because it was Netflix's home turf! Overall, YouTube just *feels* faster. It feels like it's built for our current era where you can quickly and easily dip into and out of things. Netflix, for as good as they are with streaming compression and what not, still just feels like it was built for the old paradigm of content. Because it was! This, in turn, makes YouTube feel like a great home for *all types* of content, including the more "premium" stuff that usually resides on my "traditional" streamers. That includes both movies – which yes, you can rent through YouTube – and shows, which you can [increasingly watch](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/peacock-now-youtube-primetime-channels-nbcuniversal-deal-1236631769/?ref=spyglass.org) via their "Channels" play, which took a page out of Prime Video's playbook. Again, while YouTube isn't paying for their own content anymore, it increasingly feels like they won't need to thanks to these Channels. [I've long wondered](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) who would end up winning the battle to be the main streaming hub, [with Apple the most obvious choice](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) given their position in the market and previous success with iTunes. But their Apple TV set top box strategy continues to move in the wrong direction, and they're clearly not going to make [an actual television set](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/) anytime soon ([sadly](https://spyglass.org/apple-television/)), so it now feels like a fight mainly between Prime Video, YouTube, and Netflix.[4](#four) The latter clearly – [*clearly*](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) – is going to start their own "Channels" strategy sooner rather than later. It's [low-hanging fruit](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/netflix-is-exploring-live-tv-and-bundles-as-it-struggles-to-keep-viewers-hooked-e1eb28f6?st=3G7xPB&ref=spyglass.org) from a retention and engagement perspective. And given their size, everyone will obviously be willing to work with them – though maybe Apple only if they agree to reciprocate and finally allow Netflix content to be [surfaced by the Apple TV UI](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/). Something which Netflix [*really* should do](https://spyglass.org/netflix-apple-tv/)! Again, engagement! [It's also clear](https://spyglass.org/inklings-hackquisitions-revisited-amazon-kills-the-openai-movie-netflix-is-tv-snap-spins-off-ai-trump-mocks-his-big-tech-sycophants/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BA%20Netflix%20as%20the%20New%20Cable%20TV%20Front%2DEnd) that we're going to see Netflix strike more deals to take over the front-end of various cable TV services around the world. The early returns [with TF1 in France](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/) seem [very positive](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/tf1-netflix-deal-record-streaming-figures-france-1236642951/?ref=spyglass.org) and again, this helps lock Netflix into that position as the main TV UI. And it's hard for YouTube to do this because they have their own, competing service [in the form of](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) YouTube TV (though yes, it remains US-only). [At some point](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/), YouTube TV is going to get rolled into YouTube itself. Presumably the current cable deals preclude that from happening, but it's getting more and more muddled as YouTube itself takes on the Oscars, [BBC](https://deadline.com/2026/06/bbc-test-news-channel-stream-youtube-1236965250/?ref=spyglass.org), [Mister Rogers](https://current.org/2026/06/mister-rogers-neighborhood-seeks-new-audiences-with-youtube-expansion/?ref=spyglass.org), perhaps [the next World Cup](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/fifa-world-cup-media-rights-netflix-disney-youtube.html?ref=spyglass.org) rights, [more NFL](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/), etc.[5](#five) I mentioned this[ the other day](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/), but it long has felt like Netflix was not the new HBO because they ended up being *far larger* than that: [the new cable TV](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/). But actually, it now feels like this notion is almost veering a bit negative, *that Netflix is akin to basic cable*. It's something everyone has, but no one really *loves* anymore. The best content is [on Apple TV](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) and Disney+ and [yes, HBO Max](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/), as the new "premium" cable channels of the day. Meanwhile, *YouTube is the new TV*. The service that's free that has everything and by far the largest reach – akin to the big networks of old. All of them. Combined. To that end, it also feels like Netflix needs to go free sooner rather than later. With the ad-tier in place, they can offer up the ultimate FAST service. It won't be for me and perhaps not for you, as the subscription tiers would obviously remain, but it can kickstart growth once again. And that would be a hell of a lot easier and cheaper than say, [buying Disney](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/) or [even Lionsgate](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/missing-roku-netflix-claims-wont-192500928.html?ref=spyglass.org). All options should be on the table to shake things up once again, but if we all can agree that YouTube is the real rival, it's becoming increasingly clear how to best combat them. In a way, the two are on a collision course just coming from opposite ends. Netflix from the premium side, YouTube from the UGC side. Both have been hugely successful in their own lanes, but those lanes are converging. And seemingly out of nowhere – at least to me – YouTube would suddenly seem to have the clearer path... 👇 ****Earlier this week on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI’s Chat RobotWhat can Apple say about a device designed for vocal AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-82fc91ce-3bfb-4fbd-9ed6-c81cd63ee1a8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--03_41_09-PM-1-873a6d39-8e64-4be3-944c-5817b76156a9.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) [Apple Going All-In on AI ChipsMight they too challenge NVIDIA one day, at least on inference?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6c5b322c-cfd5-4e8e-9884-bb6185069475.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-14--2026--11_42_22-AM-1-2b37a4b1-93b9-47db-8f61-862e4de31c9e.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chips/) [Apple’s Email Found OpenAI WellWell, not well. But it seemingly still found their inbox…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-cb1368ca-39a6-4c2c-882b-e6ca2f53f5fc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--10_11_11-AM-1-63e15ce7-c525-4b23-8690-ddce539447d8.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hopes-this-email-found-openai-well/) --- 1 While we had deals with other video providers, I can't tell you how much faster it was to use YouTube to get a video up and live back in the day. This mattered at [the speed of blogging](https://spyglass.org/om/)... [↩](#) 2 Are they [a good judge of "best"](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/)? I [would argue not](https://spyglass.org/the-electric-state-netflix-bad/)... [↩](#) 3 Yes, yes, TikTok and Reels shorter still! And that's perhaps why they're working too! And why YouTube has Shorts. [↩](#) 4 Especially with [Roku now going to Fox](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%8A%20Fox%20Gets%20Their%20Own%20Streaming%20Box)... [↩](#) 5 Where Google TV, a service which has pivoted about a half dozen times over the years but is currently the software that can power smart TVs, as well as their own set-top box, fits is another matter. I guess it continues as-is to try to be more of a "Switzerland" where YouTube is just one option, but if YouTube really does take over TV... [↩](#) ### OpenAI’s Chat Robot URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/ Last updated: 2026-07-15T14:56:28.000Z Well, it looks like we won't have to wait for a legal discovery process to uncover what hardware device OpenAI is working on. In what feels awfully like a coordinated leak, [Mark Gurman of *Bloomberg* got](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/openai-s-first-device-will-be-moveable-screenless-speaker-built-as-ai-companion?ref=spyglass.org) a lot of details about what is easiest to describe as an AI-driven smart speaker, but that *clearly* OpenAI won't frame that way: > OpenAI’s much-anticipated push into consumer devices is slated to begin with a mobile, screen-free smart speaker designed to be a new type of home computer for the AI era, according to people familiar with the matter. > > The product — still under development — is meant to serve as a humanlike AI companion that lives in the home, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the project hasn’t been announced. It will help control smart-home appliances, play media, answer questions, respond to messages and tap into the range of capabilities offered by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, they said. None of this is particularly surprising – in fact, it all sounds [largely in-line](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2077140940393791950?ref=spyglass.org) with the product I guessed OpenAI was building immediately after [they announced](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) the acquisition of io, Jony Ive's startup. While many assumed the two companies would team up to focus on building [an AI wearable device](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) – which were [all the rage](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/) at [the time](https://spyglass.org/chat-gpt-pin/), led by [the ill-fated](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/) (and Sam Altman-backed) [Humane AI Pin](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-brutal-review/) – my guess was, well, more or less what it sounds like they're gearing up to launch. Back in May 2025, [in a piece entitled 'The Anti iPhone', I wrote](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/): > The problem with a full-on wearable in this regard is that everyone focuses far too much on the whole wearable part. That is, the exterior of the device and how it will work on your body. And then: how can I get the technology to work on that? But I suspect that OpenAI/IO are focused on the opposite: what's the best device to use this technology? Why does it have to be wearable? > > To be clear, I suspect that whatever the device is, it will look fantastic – this is [an Ive/LoveFrom](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-lovefrom-moncler/) [production](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/), [after all](https://spyglass.org/duo-button-design-lovefrom/) – but that's mainly because beautiful products bring a sense of delight to users and can spur usage. I suspect the key to the design here will be yes: [how it works](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/457177-design-is-not-just-what-it-looks-like-and-feels?ref=spyglass.org). And again, I suspect that will be largely based around voice, and perhaps augmented by a camera. By October of that year, as some details started to [trickle out](https://www.ft.com/content/58b078be-e0ab-492f-9dbf-c2fe67298dd3?ref=spyglass.org&syn-25a6b1a6=1) about the direction OpenAI/io was taking, the focus seemed more clear. "A small, screen-less digital companion for you life," [I wrote at the time](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). Another [leak](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-openai-team-developing-ai-devices?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) in February 2026 nudged us even further in the direction of [a smart speaker-like device](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/). Back to Gurman's report today: > OpenAI’s success in hardware will hinge on bringing a novel approach to the market — something it aims to do with the smart speaker. For instance, the device’s technology is meant to become increasingly personalized and proactive as it gains a deeper understanding of its owner over time, according to the people. > > OpenAI envisions the device anticipating needs, surfacing information proactively and serving as an expert on its user, they said. Though the speaker is designed to stay in the home, it will be easy to move around the house. The key to this device, of course, will be voice. That is, voice-based AI. The writing has been on the wall there since at least [the launch of GPT-4o](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/), but if the intent was to be more than simply a better Alexa or HomePod, it felt like [a couple more breakthroughs were needed](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/). And what do you know, with the launch of GPT-Live... here we are! [As I wrote just last week](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) (which feels like *months ago* in OpenAI-land): > Anyway, it feels like we're now fully on the cusp of a true shift in computing. Yes, I've long thought this, but it's step-by-step happening. And these new GPT-Live capabilities seem like they're going to unlock the space to the point where [new devices](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) may now be not just possible, [but inevitable](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/). > > For now, these models and capabilities will be awesome to use on smartphones and laptops. While one aspect of the demo that Siri head Mike Rockwell gave during the WWDC keynote was undoubtedly because voice gives a far better demo than text, [it also seems pretty clear](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) that we're about to see millions of people out in the wild hitting a button to chat – vocally – with Siri. Finally. > > And perhaps those who get really into this method of interaction start to venture into even more robust models such as those offered now by GPT-Live. And perhaps OpenAI leverages those capabilities to launch [their own device](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) sometime in the next several months. And perhaps many others follow suit once it's clear that this is [a new path forward for computing](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). Inevitable, indeed. Back to Gurman: > The device’s communication abilities will rely on a more advanced version of the [ChatGPT Voice Mode](https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-live/?ref=spyglass.org) — GPT-Live — that OpenAI rolled out this month. The new voice mode is designed to act more like a human. It can listen and talk at the same time, adapt more naturally during conversations, and quickly process information. > > Though the new product resembles a speaker, OpenAI internally describes it as the first of its kind: a computer built for AI to help make busy people more productive. It includes a camera and other sensors that help it understand a user’s surroundings and context, as well as advanced AI models beyond those available on conventional smart speakers. [That's a bingo](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wJSZqSfloEE?ref=spyglass.org). But wait, what's that in the room next to this new OpenAI device? It's an elephant! In the form of [a lawsuit](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) just filed by Apple against OpenAI. While perhaps not explicitly about *this* device, it's obviously going to get roped in here. Because [what underpins the entire thing](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/) is the notion of OpenAI [poaching people](https://spyglass.org/apple-hopes-this-email-found-openai-well/) from Apple and allegedly stealing their IP and trade secrets to bolster OpenAI's fledgling hardware efforts. To quote Apple, "As a natural result, OpenAI's nascent hardware business now rests on the shakiest of foundations, rotten to its core by its illegal reliance on misappropriated trade secrets." To hear OpenAI – sorry, Gurman's sources – tell it: > Apple [sued OpenAI last week](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-10/apple-sues-openai-for-trade-secret-theft-in-blockbuster-case?ref=spyglass.org), accusing the company of stealing trade secrets. But OpenAI believes that the device veers significantly from anything Apple has on the market today and that it’s unlikely that it violates trade secrets belonging to the iPhone maker, the people said. While this would-be device obviously doesn't sound like an iPhone and again, OpenAI is going to frame this very differently than a smart speaker such as the aforementioned HomePod, lawsuit aside, that general space now feels like *yesterday's* technology because of [the previous success of Alexa](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) and the like – still, there are likely going to be some overlaps. The question will be just how many and if any of them crossed the chasm in the alleged information taken from Apple. Of course, that may also take *years* to uncover, depending on if/when this actually goes to trial. And that's why Apple is seeking injunctions to stop OpenAI from using their IP *right now*. So even these next few months are going to be interesting... And wait, while everyone seems to be focused in on the possibility that OpenAI would infringe Apple's *known* products, what if this is all really about the *unknown/unreleased* ones? Certainly the lawsuit makes it clear that the "show and tell" of prototypes was key – i.e. they weren't bringing iPhones to those meetings (allegedly). In fact, reading today's report, I'm reminded of not just the tabletop/mounted '[FacePod](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/)'/'[HomePad](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/)' that has been [rumored](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/) for years – and [likely delayed](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) by Apple's AI woes – but other potential products that Apple's own [published research papers](https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.12493?ref=spyglass.org) have uncovered. Even better, [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHJa%5FCyJjdc&ref=spyglass.org). In February 2025, I wrote about "[Apple's Elegantly Expressive Pixar Lamp](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/)": > I don't know that this will be [the first such robotic product](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/) that Apple launches. It sounds like the first could be a bit more stationery. But this is one that I would bet that Apple will try to launch at some point in the next few years. The only real question is if they'll be allowed to call it "Luxo" or the like. If Steve Jobs were still with us, absolutely that would have happened. Will Disney greenlight Apple using their IP given the Jobs legacy? I mean, you'd have to imagine Bob Iger would see it as a branding win/win, but will Iger [still be around](https://spyglass.org/disney-cruises-to-damaro/) at that point?... Forget the HomePod, or even 'HomePad' (again, this OpenAI device has no screen), *this* is the device that immediately jumped to my mind. It's a simple robot meant to bring joy and delight into a home by way of expressive actions driven by AI. Apple, of course, didn't have the voice chops to make it work at the time, but now, thanks to Google, [they probably do](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/)! So I can't help but wonder how much overlap there is between whatever OpenAI is trying to do with this first device and what Apple is doing [within their *labs*](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/)... That, I imagine, may be the key to all of this. At the same time, as I noted the other day, even if OpenAI is worried about any of this – and again, they're telegraphing that they're not – they may feel the need to push forward anyway. This hardware initiative is *that* important to [the future](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) of the company. And I suspect that Ive's team will have built something super compelling: > OpenAI believes the product’s defining feature will be its personality and ability to connect on a humanlike level with users. The speaker incorporates mechanical elements that can move on their own, creating a sense that it is alive and not just an object responding to commands. The machine also will draw on personal information such as emails to better understand its owner. > > The goal is for the device to feel like a companion and become a physical manifestation of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. A cute tabletop robot that does your email for you? Sign me up. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-85159b0e-29d5-4720-be90-177fa90b8e87.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-d13e0a0c-9365-4fe1-b82e-efc7f1321833.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [The First True AI ChatbotAs in, actually chatting. As in, with voice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-1ca10ff8-d417-4df6-a4eb-eda556cdf218.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-9--2026--12_36_26-PM-e34faf19-18d6-4c76-80dc-d8d49f7c0cd0.png)](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) [OpenAI’s Digital Assistant DeviceObvious challenges aside, it’s starting to come into focus…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-ccee42d6-0e7e-4f42-9e1b-198c14e1603a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-2-e4a9ecc3-3ad1-4834-9a9e-b31f896a4fad.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) [“Hello, Computer.”With AI and an appetite for new hardware, vocal computing seems primed to take off, for real this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-3d953339-2df0-4c97-a56b-3028ba676341.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a55090e3-ec2d-4f98-835e-0e819fcf17bd-27d0b9d1-e3b2-4e27-9ee9-f82ae92e7c95.png)](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) [Apple’s Elegantly Expressive Pixar LampForget glasses, Apple’s Next Big Thing™ may be a robot…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-a8ea4b67-cbfc-4969-9407-e17536d23182.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/lam-2-28d19a10-25c4-4f20-bbc1-d52758ef90b3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) ### Apple's Email Found OpenAI Well URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-hopes-this-email-found-openai-well/ Last updated: 2026-08-04T14:14:24.000Z [How a bungled email from Apple’s lawyer soured talks with OpenAI months before Apple suedA lawyer for Apple apologized for mixing up two OpenAI employees with the names Wang and Chang.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/android-icon-192x192-d323fa33-a3b8-48a7-ac57-f11dfe1e9c48.png)NBC NewsDavid Ingram![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/251013-Sam-Altman-aa-1235-873858-6dc32640-5e17-4dc2-8fa3-c0ade8e055b5.jpg)](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/apple/apple-openai-lawsuit-suit-trade-product-hardware-email-sam-altman-rcna587376?ref=spyglass.org) Email. [Why did it have to be](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClwIj3x24Q4&ref=spyglass.org) email? [The bane of](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) [our existence](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/) is also the bane of Apple's and OpenAI's. I'm not saying what seems to be a mix-up conveyed across the protocol would have stopped the lawsuit between the two, but were the sides actually able to connect in a civil and more humane manner – like, say, over the phone – it may have de-escalated tensions before they reached a boiling point. An unrequited message from Apple to OpenAI is framed as a kicking off point for [the whole situation](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) in Apple's own filing. Obviously, it's meant to showcase an effort of good faith on Apple's part to resolve the matter. But it was curious that Apple said that OpenAI *never responded*. I focused in on this as odd in [my post on the topic a couple days ago](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/): > As for timing, it would seem sort of wild that Apple knew about Liu having some level of access to what they viewed as their information in February 2026 (a couple weeks after his departure to start at OpenAI) but didn't bring about this lawsuit until nearly six months later. While they note that they reached out to OpenAI about a potential issue (and never heard back), it's not clear who at OpenAI they reached out to (nor is it clear who at Apple reached out). Was it simply to Liu himself or someone else? Was it a low-level "heads up" ping between IT departments or something that was elevated much higher? This may remain unclear until/if there's actual discovery. Well, now it's more clear who reached out to whom between the two thanks to [reporting by David Ingram for *NBC News*](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/apple/apple-openai-lawsuit-suit-trade-product-hardware-email-sam-altman-rcna587376?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple alleged in [a lawsuit last week](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/apple-sues-openai-two-former-employees-trade-secrets-theft-rcna385916?ref=spyglass.org) that OpenAI “never responded” to its concerns this year about what Apple believed was trade secret theft. But emails reviewed by NBC News show that’s not the full story: OpenAI did respond in February to Apple’s initial outreach. The communications became bogged down and, according to OpenAI, abruptly stopped after an outside attorney representing Apple mixed up the names and email addresses of two OpenAI employees who had the last names Wang and Chang. All that is to say, Apple's email *did* find OpenAI well! Well, not well. Because the note (from Apple's outside counsel) clearly led to a back-and-forth that ultimately pissed off both sides. To be fair, that's pretty standard for email – especially between lawyers. And yes, this all seems a bit silly. But clearly someone – obviously likely OpenAI – sent the emails to *NBC* in an attempt to show that Apple is being disingenuous at best in their accusations. And setting the stage that they're perhaps even *lying* about at least one element! It *is* weird that Apple explicitly notes in their lawsuit that OpenAI did not respond to that February outreach when they clearly did. But I imagine Apple would argue semantics here, that OpenAI perhaps never responded to *the actual issue*: the Apple access/information/property that the former Apple/current OpenAI employee, Chang Liu, had. (**Aside**: I'm confused by the notion that Apple is said to have mixed up the *last names* of the employees, when Chang is the *first name* of a central figure here? Are there *other* employees here or is *that itself* *a mix up*?) Will OpenAI try to argue that Apple was simply asking about the wrong person so they had no obligation to look into it? Clearly there was a back-and-forth that led to Apple's outside counsel *apologizing* for mixing up the names. But did OpenAI really use that as pretense to simply stop any communication on the topic? To add another wrinkle to this, OpenAI has now elaborated on their initial, comically simple comment on the matter that, "We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets." (Um, *of course* they ave interest! That doesn't mean they want to *steal them*, but suggesting they're not interesting is funny.) [The new statement, given to *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/openai-says-it-s-not-aware-of-any-evidence-that-apple-lawsuit-has-merit?ref=spyglass.org) has a bit more meat on the bone: > "While we take these allegations seriously, we’re not aware of any evidence that this complaint has merit. We believe in fair competition and allowing people the freedom to work wherever they choose, and we’re focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere." There's a lot going on there in such a short statement. "We're not aware of any evidence that this complaint has merit" is just the sort of semantics gymnastics you would expect from a statement actually cleared by lawyers. That's not to say there's *not any evidence*, they're simply not *aware* of it, you see. And the evidence they're talking about is not necessarily about the alleged crime itself, but rather for the *complaint*. All technicalities, of course, but all undoubtedly framed that way on purpose. The bit about the "freedom to work wherever they choose" is all about framing this as Apple trying to stifle the free movement of people between companies – a problematic practice that the company has a long, contentious history with.[1](#one) [As I wrote in my post](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/), this will be a key point because both companies are based in California. > Speaking of, the sheer number of people who have moved from Apple to OpenAI would seemingly help make Apple's case here. Would a jury buy that so many people leaving from one company to another wasn't a coordinated effort? That itself wouldn't be illegal – thanks California for no non-competes/non-solicitation rules – but how/why those people came over with regard to IP and trade secrets would obviously be at play here. I mean, that's more or less the entire case! OpenAI is likely to frame this as Apple simply being pissed off about the AI startup poaching so many of their employees – 400+! – though given the evidence Apple seemingly has against at least Liu, I'm not sure how well that will actually hold up. But perhaps the argument is used to help the other defendant, Tang Tan? Anyway, yes, email will be front and center to all of this. Not just the back-and-forth between lawyers, but it will obviously be key if the case progresses to the point of discovery. Apple already divulged they have some potentially problematic emails from Tan and others. We're undoubtedly going to get a lot more – on both sides! Let this be a lesson to us all: never email. --- **Update August 4, 2026**: OpenAI finally responds in a meaningful way, publishing messages to try to show up Apple. But do they really?... [OpenAI Shows Some ReceiptsBut will publishing these specific messages be enough to stop Apple’s real goal here: legal discovery?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-37d645ba-6fba-415a-b54b-fd6fc6cd7290.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-4--2026--02_50_23-PM-691878e0-35a1-43d3-ba17-78bafbfc1a60.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/) --- 1 I actually had [a scoop back in 2009](https://techcrunch.com/2009/08/07/source-apple-and-google-agreed-not-to-poach-workers/?ref=spyglass.org) that Apple and Google had agreed not to poach each others workers, something they had settle with the DoJ over (and agree no longer to do), alongside four other companies, [back in 2010](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/24/anti-poaching-agreements/?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) ### Apple Going All-In on AI Chips URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chips/ Last updated: 2026-07-14T11:04:41.000Z [ Apple’s M6, M7 and M8 Chips Show How AI Is Reshaping the Company So maybe the Apple Car project wasn't a total crash... ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Mark Gurman ![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ipgZEQYo1qNg/v6/2000x1333.webp) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-12/apple-s-chip-plans-m6-m7-pro-m7-max-m7-ultra-m8-details-touch-macbook-pro?ref=spyglass.org) While the high-level itself is interesting – that Apple is seemingly doubling and *tripling* down on the AI aspects of their Apple Silicon efforts – one part of Gurman's newsletter this week stood out: > Apple had been planning major neural-processing upgrades for the M7 family and ultimately decided those improvements were important enough to justify accelerating the next generation rather than completing the M6 lineup. Those changes go into high gear with the M7 Ultra. I’m told the processor dramatically upgrades AI performance, bringing it closer to the class of dedicated AI accelerators such as Nvidia Corp.’s Blackwell. Uh, is this suggesting that Apple is about to make a chip that's comparable to the chips that are fueling the Age of AI and have [turned NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/) into the most valuable ([and profitable](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/) and [perhaps important](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/)) company in the world? Well, no, not exactly. If I'm reading Gurman's (too-simplistic) line correctly, I believe it just suggests that the M7 Ultra may have performance that's comparable *in some ways* with NVIDIA's Blackwell. Which chip? Unclear, there's the B100 and B200 model, as well as other variants like the 'GB 200 Superchip' which is a GPU paired with a 'Grace' CPU. It's undoubtedly not about to touch the actual Blackwell *racks* that NVIDIA sells – which run from hundreds of thousands to *millions of dollars* – but still, just matching the chips would be impressive for AI workflows. Specifically, he also undoubtedly means *inference* (seemingly hence "accelerators") and not *training* of AI models, as again, there's almost no way for a "single" chip (even two or more fused together as Apple does with their 'Ultra' models) to match the processing power of what NVIDIA's systems can offer. The power required alone (see also: every headline about data center power consumption) would make this a completely unfair comparison. As would the current state of memory bandwidth between the two types of chips – which stands at about an order of magnitude difference, which also obviously matters for token generation, I might add! That said, because Apple's chips use unified memory, they actually do have a potential inherent advantage here for running AI models. The problem has been that the amount of memory they utilize is just so much smaller than what NVIDIA's overall systems call to, so it has historically only been good for smaller, local models (see also: [Apple's Siri AI](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) [hybrid strategy](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/)). But if the M7 Ultra is able to jack up available memory to 1.5TB as the story mentions, that could very well compete with a Blackwell when in comes to inference for LLMs. But even with the current memory crunch issues aside – and those may very well *not* even be alleviated by the time such a chip is ready – the huge caveat here is that this M7 Ultra chip is slated to launch in 2028\. Blackwell is doing all of this in 2026 and it's not like NVIDIA is sitting still. They already have their next generation of chips seemingly ready to roll and then will presumably have a generation after that ready to roll too. Further, the AI labs are also not sitting still and so today's state of the art models are likely to be quite a bit larger in 2028 too... Anyway, my point is that this almost throwaway sentence sounds insanely impressive – and it would be in many ways – but there's also likely quite a bit of nuance to it. Still, if Apple is this focused on ramping up AI capabilities for their chips, it is fair to wonder if this won't be yet another huge advantage the company has in the future thanks to Apple Silicon. Again, Apple is clearly already focused on the hybrid approach of doing some AI work on-device while offloading the bigger stuff to the cloud. If they can bring more and more of that work [on device](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/)... And that mixed with [the current trend](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/) of companies balking at the AI compute costs and mixed with the notion that perhaps some of their frontier models are increasingly going to be paired (or distilled) down because they're overkill for a lot of AI workloads... and yeah, Apple could be sitting pretty in a few years. Perhaps also why [NVIDIA is building their own AI PC chips](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) in the form of 'RTX Spark' [alongside Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/). The battleground changes but the [combatants](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) remain the same... **One more thing:** the above is obviously all about computer-grade chips, but what about servers? > The chip may also ultimately be the basis of a coming overhaul to the AI server strategy. Apple plans to soon deploy a more powerful server based on the M5 Ultra under the internal code name J246, but engineers are already developing another new server chip for launch by 2029 that is built around the M7 Ultra’s capabilities. This, of course, points to a world in which Apple doesn't need to rely on Google Cloud (running NVIDIA chips, [no less](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/)) for that offloaded work. But might it also point to another world in which Apple, like Google and Amazon before them, start [selling their chips to *others* to use](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/)? Or what about their own *actual* 'Apple Cloud' business? Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but [everyone is doing it](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) these days... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [They’re Building AI PCs, Will Users Come?Developers will, but at what cost? And can NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google push Apple aside there?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-a600a0d6-74ea-4e15-964a-db7de8133e1b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2026--02_20_35-PM-fd42ed66-4381-488a-85ad-d600e6ff76af.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) [Meta’s Inevitable CloudTheir need to diversify the business meets the AI build out concerns…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-93425ed4-ee71-41e1-bb4f-ce3c15d8a714.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-2--2026--02_16_08-PM-9cc781cd-ca26-483b-b055-65a580ad1730.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-52a7a454-a1d6-40b0-8b23-b17da7afd688.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr-2ac981bb-7598-42a4-96c6-2d20d84a8c84.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) ### Reading Between the Apple v. OpenAI Lawsuit Lines URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/ Last updated: 2026-08-05T07:51:11.000Z Have you heard? Apple is suing OpenAI. While I think [my initial quick reaction](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) after the Friday news dump remains correct at the highest level, having now read [the full 40-page document](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/73602437/1/apple-inc-v-liu/?ref=spyglass.org), there's also – as expected – clearly a bit more nuance to the situation. Namely, while Apple frames OpenAI – or at least its fledgling hardware division – as "rotten to its core" (interesting terminology!), they really only have a case against two and maybe three individuals. But they also clearly believe that if this case goes to trial, they will have a case against a lot more. That is to say, it's a fairly standard legal document. It's well-written, narratively, and fairly concise, but it still is very much making a one-sided argument in grandiose terms. That's the job to be done here. But in reading it, augmented by some of the reporting around the suit, you can start to see the contours of reality. With the usual caveat that I'm not a lawyer and the allegations still remain just that, *allegations*, to which the other side has not responded beyond boilerplate (["We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets."](https://x.com/drewpusateri/status/2075708238650089981?ref=spyglass.org)), here's my current read of the situation... First and foremost, again, if the allegations are true, Chang Liu, the former Senior System Electrical Engineer at Apple and now a Member of Technical Staff at OpenAI, is in a lot of trouble. At the very least, it seems safe to assume that he won't be working for OpenAI any longer. The real question would seem to be what kind of penalty he would face. The parallels to the Anthony Levandowski situation after he left Google for Uber [have been drawn](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/07/10/apple-sues-openai-alleging-ai-company-stole-trade-secrets/?ref=spyglass.org). Obviously, he was far more senior and high profile of a person than Liu is, still, the fact that he was sentenced to prison (before being [pardoned by President Trump](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/anthony-levandowski-pardoned-after-stealing-trade-secrets-from-google.html?ref=spyglass.org)) for his actions is, well, not a great precedent for Liu. Again, they are just allegations at the moment, but Apple also would seem to have the receipts – many of them – because of the use of Apple-owned hardware for many actions. It is interesting that Apple is *not* suing Yu-Ting “Alyssa” Peng, who is named in the suit as a co-conspirator with Liu while she was still employed at Apple, before she also subsequently went to work at OpenAI. Is it possible she's cooperating or has cooperated with Apple in this investigation? Or that they hope she will in any would-be trial? Pure speculation, of course, but an interesting wrinkle given the receipts Apple also seemingly has there. As for Tang Tan, the other named defendant here, Apple's case feels more nebulous. It seems pretty obvious that they weren't looking into his actions until after they came upon the Liu situation and subsequently found a few things, likely in scouring their systems for Liu-related information, that they felt they could use to bring a case against him as well. Including, most notably, allegedly emailing himself partner information before he left Apple and apparently asking would-be recruits to bring proprietary and potentially confidential information – including prototype hardware?! – to "show and tells". This is not a great look under any circumstance, but perhaps especially not when you've already been accused of something similar [by *another* company](https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/10/openai-responds-to-apples-trade-secret-theft-lawsuit/?ref=spyglass.org)! More murky would seem to be the endless talk of using Apple's internal codenames for projects to lure both recruits and partners into divulging confidential information – as if the codename was some sort of password that unlocks such details. Anyway, the fact that Tan was an extremely high profile vice president at Apple and is now the most important person on OpenAI's hardware side (since Jony Ive is not technically a full-time employee) makes him both an obvious and key target here. Even if these allegations are found to be untrue or embellished, can he reasonably stay at OpenAI now? And perhaps that's the real outcome Apple is looking for here, as they clearly frame him as the ringleader of the *400-plus* people who have come over to OpenAI from Apple. Cut off the head of the snake and... chill the body to ensure the snake stops growing. Speaking of, the sheer number of people who have moved from Apple to OpenAI would seemingly help make Apple's case here. Would a jury buy that so many people leaving from one company to another wasn't a coordinated effort? That itself wouldn't be illegal – thanks California for no non-competes/non-solicitation rules – but *how/why* those people came over with regard to IP and trade secrets would obviously be at play here. I mean, that's more or less the entire case! And of course, the true leader of that movement is undoubtedly the aforementioned Ive in the eyes of many. Given the history of Ive and Apple, no matter the tensions, it's simply hard to imagine them ever going after [their former – quite literal – knight](https://500ish.com/the-knight-of-apples-old-republic-dd91e5223fcb?ref=spyglass.org). The optics of it alone would be hugely damaging to *both* brands. At the same time, it would be hard to believe that Ive would do anything so blatant to try to *hurt* Apple. Sure, [he may want to *compete*](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) to combat some of what he feels like [he wrought with the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/), but it's just hard to see him doing something as nefarious as knowingly taking or directing others to effectively steal from Apple. Maybe that's naive, but again, *Ive is not even mentioned in the suit*. Tan, on the other hand, perhaps had a reputation for "flying too close to the sun" while at Apple, [as *Bloomberg's* Mark Gurman is reporting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-11/openai-engineer-s-lol-moment-set-stage-for-legal-fight-with-apple?ref=spyglass.org) around the lawsuit. Perhaps even more intriguing is the notion that some felt he should have gotten the head of hardware role that John Ternus ultimately landed which, of course, has now vaulted him into [the CEO-in-waiting role](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/). So yeah, that's an interesting rivalry dynamic here! As for timing, it would seem sort of wild that Apple knew about Liu having some level of access to what they viewed as their information in February 2026 (a couple weeks after his departure to start at OpenAI) but didn't bring about this lawsuit until nearly six months later. While they note that they reached out to OpenAI about a potential issue (and never heard back), it's not clear who at OpenAI they reached out to (nor is it clear who at Apple reached out). Was it simply to Liu himself or someone else? Was it a low-level "heads up" ping between IT departments or something that was elevated much higher? This may remain unclear until/if there's actual discovery. But again, the fact that Apple didn't bring the lawsuit immediately suggests that either they didn't view it as a big deal at the time (perhaps they didn't know the full scope) or that they felt the need to build a case. To that end, [Apple's statement to *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/apple-openai-lawsuit-trade-secrets.html?ref=spyglass.org) that "Recently, significant evidence has emerged..." could go either way. It may be a bit too conspiratorial to wonder if Apple waited until the OpenAI IPO preparations were [in process](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,I%20Quote...,-%22It%20may%20be) and/or the first hardware product development was [far enough along](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) for the timing here. But I mean, there's certainly a world in which these allegations sidetrack one or both things – if not outright torpedo them. To that end, OpenAI's best path may be to figure out if there's a way to get Apple to settle here quickly. And that may be tough. While they did eventually [drop their lawsuit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-29/apple-drops-suit-against-ex-chip-exec-williams-who-started-nuvia?sref=10lNAhZ9&leadSource=uverify%20wall&ref=spyglass.org) against Gerard Williams III, the former employee who went on to start Nuvia to compete with Apple Silicon, they did so *after three years*. And they also seemingly didn't have the case that they do at least against Liu here. And again, the real key to that may not be Liu himself here, but unlocking a discovery process that unearths who-knows-what-else. If nothing else, it would certainly unearth what OpenAI is actually building hardware-wise! Then again, Apple undoubtedly already knows that. After all, OpenAI is seemingly using some of the same suppliers per the lawsuit! And perhaps even some of the same materials, the proprietary nature of one in particular is sort of humorously focused in on in the suit – a "trade secret metal-finishing technique" that OpenAI allegedly tricked one of Apple's suppliers into doing for them! But there, what Apple really might want to know about is if/when OpenAI intends [to build a phone](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,%F0%9F%93%B1%20The%20OpenAiPhone%3F,-%E2%80%93%20First%2C%20are) – or [phone-like device](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/). And if, as [reported](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2048587389791269182?ref=spyglass.org), they are, perhaps with those 400+ people who worked on [the most popular consumer electronics device in history](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) while at Apple, well, there may be a whole other can of worms there. Again, depending on what any discovery would unearth. Sam Altman, of course, is no stranger to such discovery, but can he really sit through more depositions with more of his emails and text messages shown to the world casting him in an [embarrassing](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/) (or worse) light? It just depends, I guess! The extent to which he's involved in any of the above – and clearly [he's been front and center with OpenAI's hardware efforts alongside Ive](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) – could be the latest in a string of not great situations to be in, to put it mildly. It's also, of course, the latest not great situation for OpenAI itself to be in. Regardless, if Apple really does intend to fully go through with this trial (remember that they'd be subject to discovery as well, something the famously secretive company [has not historically liked](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) in the past either), it presumably wouldn't happen until sometime next year at the earliest, and perhaps even later. Though hearings around injunctions Apple is requesting would happen far sooner. And all of that paints a picture where OpenAI may not be able to launch said hardware on their intended roadmap of later this year or early next. Might that suggest that Apple is actually [worried](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/#ghost-comments-6a516b63911c620001fd12c3) about what OpenAI intends to launch here? I mean, maybe! Again, they have 400+ of their former people working on it. But at the very least, they simply must view it as strategic to slow-down a would-be competitor. Apple would never say that out loud, of course. But come on. Does Cupertino want to compete against a new Jony Ive-designed product in the market? If nothing else, again, it's a bad look for them, optically! That isn't a reason to launch such a lawsuit, but OpenAI gave them a reason! 400+ of them actually! And while it may or may not be just one or two employees acting on their own, the (now widely reported) fact that OpenAI was said to be considering their own lawsuit against Apple around the failure of their ChatGPT/Siri partnership could not have helped matters![1](#one) Again, that was apparently happening in between Apple alerting OpenAI about a potential breach and this lawsuit being filed. [That's why I said at the time](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/) that it was probably fairly stupid for OpenAI to poke the bear. But they did, and now the bear has woken up and [is pissed off](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/07/10/ternus-calls-altman?ref=spyglass.org)! So again, upon full reading of the lawsuit, the nuance seems more clear but there are also some real remaining questions. Questions which only the discovery process and/or the actual trial would uncover. There are a least a half dozen reasons why OpenAI would seemingly want/need to settle such a case ahead of such a trial, but it certainly doesn't seem like Apple intends to do that right now! At the very least, it's going to bog OpenAI down for the next several months – and potentially *years* – and cast a shadow over the hardware side of the house. Even if all the allegations are unfounded, this uncertainty will undoubtedly make some would-be partners question any allegiances. And it may send OpenAI back to the literal drawing board to ensure any hardware isn't touching anything close to IP that Apple controls. So yeah, none of that seems great for OpenAI and their hardware prospects. And that's not great because it's perhaps [the key differentiator](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) they were hoping to have against the other frontier labs. Maybe that forces them to storm ahead anyway, at which point those injunction hearings will be awfully important... It remains just wild that it has come to this. Just two years ago, Apple was using their biggest stage to tout ChatGPT and the partnership with OpenAI. Now it's all lawsuits, allegations, and name-calling. Rotten, indeed. --- **Update July 14, 2026**: [*Bloomberg's* Mark Gurman is reporting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-13/how-apple-s-lawsuit-threatens-to-disrupt-openai-s-bid-to-rival-the-iphone?ref=spyglass.org) that despite the lawsuit, OpenAI intends to move forward with their first device – at least for now. Again, let's see what happens with any injunctions... --- **Update July 15, 2026**: But their emails... [Apple’s Email Found OpenAI WellWell, not well. But it seemingly still found their inbox…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-96314580-ba31-4303-86a3-5df4d09b8064.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--10_11_11-AM-1-3af76022-5f2f-4f59-90c1-c82d721b72d2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hopes-this-email-found-openai-well/) And their hardware... [OpenAI’s Chat RobotWhat can Apple say about a device designed for vocal AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-aa26a80d-76ce-4900-bf2b-59ebfc42723e.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--03_41_09-PM-1-d9072c41-861c-459f-89a8-c91d00887f17.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) --- **Update August 4, 2026**: OpenAI finally responds in a meaningful way, publishing messages to try to show up Apple. But do they really?... [OpenAI Shows Some ReceiptsBut will publishing these specific messages be enough to stop Apple’s real goal here: legal discovery?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-bb184b95-f76f-45b1-b2de-d74ad0b71589.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-4--2026--02_50_23-PM-f2a050b2-9694-4611-a0df-a7ff7966d399.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/) --- 👇 ****The past few days on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Your AI Margin is Meta’s OpportunityMark Zuckerberg comes out swinging with an AI business model and low-low prices![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-a489ebc8-e533-46fa-ad02-c763cf5bf1e2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-9--2026--07_36_37-PM-31cff507-0d6c-41b9-a66e-313f3a6a6c1e.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) [The ChatGPT “Super App” Sort of Super SucksEven if it’s ultimately the right call, the new Mac app is a mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-871f2dc4-12fb-478f-bd28-9bc59fed14c2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.41.00---PM-52b4c354-ae71-4d6d-ae5c-b7b96cc57a46.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/) [Super Apps Last All Summer LongA chat about AI Super Apps, Apple’s AI position, and World Cup VAR![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-f315d5a8-a08e-4141-b9d0-5cbc86537c01.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-13--2026--10_15_10-AM-1-ce948661-323a-455b-b6ab-bd9f2f5b40dc.png)](https://spyglass.org/super-apps-last-all-summer-long/) --- 1 I suppose it's good that Apple doesn't have [a representative on OpenAI's board](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) – let alone [an investment in the company](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) – [as was nearly the case](https://spyglass.org/openai-board-apple-microsoft/) a couple years ago! Then again, such an equity stake may have led to an easier path to [ease tensions](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/), [just ask Microsoft!](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) [↩](#) ### Super Apps Last All Summer Long URL: https://spyglass.org/super-apps-last-all-summer-long/ Last updated: 2026-07-13T09:27:15.000Z I can now confirm, the pubs were in fact crazy on Saturday night as I watched my Conflicted Cup – aka, the World Cup semifinal between England and Norway (I, of course, live in England but my maternal heritage is full-on Norwegian). It was close, but England pulled it out in the end – an end that occurred shortly before 1am local time, which was especially fun. Anyway, while there was a sports angle of [my usual tech talk with Alex Kantrowitz](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) this month thanks to the VAR situation in said World Cup, for the most part, we stick to tech. Namely, '[The Summer of Super Apps](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/)', which ended up being a timely chat since *just days later*, we got [the first such app](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) in the form of OpenAI's updated – but hardly upgraded – version of ChatGPT. Spoiler alert: [it's a mess](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/). So do we really believe Microsoft will be able to pull this off? I mean, at least they're coming at it from a place where they needed to [change their strategy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/), OpenAI runs a real risk here of ceding the consumer space – the area of AI they've [unquestionably dominated](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) [to date](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) – potentially [to Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) or [even Apple](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/)! At the same time, OpenAI clearly feels the need to combat Anthropic and so it's hardly surprising that the new ChatGPT looks a lot like the Claude Mac app. Well, it *is* [surprising](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) in that it's sort of a UI nightmare when we're used to OpenAI making actually [delightful product experiences](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/), for [the most part](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/). Everyone is also chasing the notion, [if not exactly the product, of OpenClaw](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) for agentic AI. Meanwhile, Google, which rather remarkably [feels](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%89%20Is%20Google%20Behind%20In%20AI%3F%20Again%3F!) behind [*again*](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) at the moment, still has the biggest surfaces to naturally insert AI (well, more naturally than Meta at least, whose user base will undoubtedly [largely reject](https://variety.com/2026/biz/news/meta-suspends-ai-image-instagram-feature-backlash-1236806989/?ref=spyglass.org) such insertion). Is it wild to think that Google may turn to Chrome not just to spur Gemini usage (which [they've been doing](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/), of course) but to turn it into the "Super App"? Would they dare?! Talk about risk – from both the user base and [regulators](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/)! Does '[Bring Your Own AI](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/)' come into play in all this? That could be a new can of worms! Apple, though, does suddenly feel [well positioned](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) again. Perhaps best positioned even! Thanks, of course, [to the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/). It sort of feels like we're going to see a lot of people over the next year transition into a mode where they walk around and talk to Siri – *actually talk to her*, not yell at her, [angry with her previously poor responses](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/). But here OpenAI may have a real opportunity thanks to their focus on [superior voice-based AI](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/). You'd think that's an opening for a new product category – [or *categories*](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) – but well, there's a potential [new massive hiccup](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) there as of a couple days ago. Also, [don't sleep](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) on "[Visual Intelligence](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/)". If it all plays out this way, Apple will obviously feel very good about [their CapEx strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/). Which is to say, they'd be positioned well in AI [without having spent hundreds of billions of dollars](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). And it's sort of [starting to feel like](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%E2%98%81%EF%B8%8F%20Microsoft%E2%80%99s%20Hybrid%20AI%20Dreams) Microsoft is moving more in this direction too. Or, at least, focusing on finding paths towards cheaper AI – both [for themselves](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/microsoft-replaces-openai-anthropic-with-own-ai-in-some-apps?ref=spyglass.org) and for their user base. Lastly, stick around for Alex's VAR rant – are we trusting the robots too much and literally taking the fun and majesty out of the game? ### Apple Goes for OpenAI's Jugular URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/ Last updated: 2026-08-04T14:13:42.000Z We all know the old saying "don't poke the bear." Less well known is the follow up: "because he might rip your fucking throat out." OpenAI, it seems, may be about to learn this lesson the hard way. To be clear and fair, I have not seen the lawsuit Apple has filed against OpenAI alleging stolen trade secrets. Nor am I a lawyer. But [I do like to think I know Apple fairly well](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple/) after a couple decades writing about and reporting on the company. And around these parts, [I've watched OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/tag/openai/) fairly closely these past few years. My gut instinct here would be that there's no way Apple files such a lawsuit unless they think they have a strong case on what they're alleging. I mean, you don't have to be close to the companies at all the sense this: they were, and in fact still are, partners! I mean, this is about to make [OpenAI and Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/apple-vs-openai/) look like the greatest love story of all time. Or at least *The Notebook*. The Elon Musk [situation](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/), yeah it's complicated. Maybe it's like *Past Lives* or *Marriage Story*. But now the OpenAI and Apple relationship suddenly looks like *Fatal Attraction*. I mean, my god. The allegations are, um, not great. I'm honestly not even sure where to begin. [*CNBC* seems to have a good summary](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/apple-openai-lawsuit-trade-secrets.html?ref=spyglass.org) of key parts of the filing so far: > Apple alleged that OpenAI’s chief hardware officer, Tang Tan, who is a[ former Apple vice president](https://thetech.com/2025/10/30/tang-tan-openai?ref=spyglass.org), has directed Apple employees interviewing at OpenAI to share Apple secrets as part of the interviewing process. Tan is named as a defendant in the suit. > > “He has directed job candidates still working for Apple to bring ‘actual parts’ from Apple to their interviews for ‘show and tell’ sessions in which he and his team at OpenAI can elicit still more Apple confidential information,” Apple said in the filing. > > Apple alleged that OpenAI coached departing Apple employees in how to evade security processes when leaving the iPhone maker, and that Chang Liu, a former employee who joined OpenAI, stole an Apple laptop. Liu is named as a defendant in the suit. While Jony Ive is not mentioned in the suit, Tan is just about as high-profile as they come in terms of former Apple folks outside of the SVP level. Which is to say, these are very serious allegations against a very senior person – *someone who spent 24 years at Apple*. So why now? I mean, this is *clearly* a Friday news dump – this crossed the wires just after the market closed. But it also seems timely: > “Recently, significant evidence has emerged suggesting individuals employed by OpenAI wrongfully took Apple’s secret and confidential information regarding our unreleased technologies, processes, and products,” an Apple representative told CNBC in a statement. It all reads a bit as if Apple has been building up evidence of these allegations for some time and recently got their smoking gun. It's not just nebulous "trade secrets" either, there are specific mentions down to "metal finishing techniques" that Apple apparently invented and protected. It also comes a little less than a month after OpenAI was [rumored](https://www.techmeme.com/260514/p25?ref=spyglass.org#a260514p25) to be threatening Apple with a lawsuit over the perceived failure of their deal to bake ChatGPT into the iPhone. [As I wrote at the time](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/), even just that threat was clearly not going to go over well in Cupertino. If you're say, upset over Apple's new deal with Google around AI, this is not the way to air your grievances with this particular company. I went on to note: > Just for fun, let's go ahead and layer in a few more things. > > First, Apple probably doesn't love the fact that OpenAI [acquired](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) the Jony Ive-founded io with the notion of [building products](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) that would [break the chains](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) that the iPhone has [placed upon us](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/). But they really can't love the fact that the team [keeps poaching](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) key Apple talent to help with such efforts. > > And what if some of those people are also working on an actual iPhone competitor [in the form of a phone](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,%F0%9F%93%B1%20The%20OpenAiPhone%3F,-%E2%80%93%20First%2C%20are), or a [smartphone-like](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) device? > > I'm not saying that's the reason Apple may not have been as receptive to reworking any deal with OpenAI, but I'm saying that if there were such discussions, that dynamic probably didn't help matters! Again, you poke the bear... it's a fucking bear. It's a move that seemingly so stupid that perhaps OpenAI was well aware that Apple was looking into all of the above and decided to try to get ahead of it? To what end? I don't know. Even with that in mind, it would be pretty stupid. But even without their own threats of litigation, what did OpenAI think was going to happen when they poached so many folks from Apple – over 400?! – to work under the guidance of Ive no less? At best, Apple was going to hate them. At worst, well, this. Speaking of, if any of these allegations are even partially true, it's hard to believe Tan or Liu or anyone at OpenAI could possibly be so stupid? Again, this is one side's allegations, and there's always going to be some level of moderation in what actually happened, but... I mean, either these allegations happened or they didn't? And if they did. I mean, I keep saying "I mean" because I mean, beyond Tan and Liu, OpenAI itself would seemingly be in real trouble. Potential damages aside, this could sidetrack [their hardware aspirations](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) for months, if not *years*. Possibly forever. And seemingly just as they got [the right software](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) in place to make [such things](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) sing. This would also, of course, not be a great look for the leadership of OpenAI. Yet another controversy and yet another [messy divorce](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) from yet another Big Tech trillion-dollar behemoth. If OpenAI isn't running out of friends, they're running out of people who would potentially work with them. They better hope these allegations are unfounded. But, I mean, this is Apple. And this is Apple going after the highest profile AI startup in the world. A partner of theirs, no less. > “This much is clear, however: at every level, from members of its Technical Staff to its Chief Hardware Officer, and in coordination with business partners, OpenAI has been stealing Apple’s trade secrets and confidential information,” the company said in a legal filing. I mean... --- **Update July 13, 2026**: Some further thoughts having now fully read the lawsuit... [Reading Between the Apple v. OpenAI Lawsuit LinesThis is clearly about more than one or two people…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-3cf8d6bb-7e8f-4805-bab2-33e46f6f2059.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-13-at-5.48.46---PM-104daa39-f9b4-4639-b038-6765b68fe148.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-v-openai-lawsuit-lines/) --- **Update July 15, 2026**: But their emails... [Apple’s Email Found OpenAI WellWell, not well. But it seemingly still found their inbox…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-da3f550d-e73d-4acb-b7a9-1ce8a00d8db3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--10_11_11-AM-1-88d72bc1-e834-4961-b933-5ab709c262c9.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hopes-this-email-found-openai-well/) And hardware... [OpenAI’s Chat RobotWhat can Apple say about a device designed for vocal AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-28efc6e2-1b76-4781-b3f2-ab99a1e75c6c.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--03_41_09-PM-1-a668abec-2cde-4b83-94e6-22f1602d55ab.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) --- **Update August 4, 2026**: OpenAI finally responds in a meaningful way, publishing messages to try to show up Apple. But do they really?... [OpenAI Shows Some ReceiptsBut will publishing these specific messages be enough to stop Apple’s real goal here: legal discovery?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4565b567-5874-4c12-a6fe-d3ad7ec7ab9f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-4--2026--02_50_23-PM-4130d0f4-3df6-4829-b20b-3f884160f611.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-vs-apple-emails/) ### The ChatGPT "Super App" Sort of Super Sucks URL: https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-gets-to-work/ Last updated: 2026-07-17T16:01:14.000Z I am so confused right now. I mean that literally. Trying to use the new ChatGPT app on the Mac, I'm confused. I knew this was coming, [more or less](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/), and I'm still confused! I hope "regular" users don't try this anytime soon, because it's a mess. The "good" news is that it's such a mess that simply trying to update the old ChatGPT app, does trigger an update, *but it's actually not the new ChatGPT app, but rather an updated version of the old one*. So anyone doing a regular update, shouldn't be shoved into this new experience – yet. Instead, to get the new ChatGPT app, you need to manually re-download it from [the page on OpenAI's website](https://chatgpt.com/download/?ref=spyglass.org). Or have Codex installed, because that should update to this new ChatGPT. And that's because the old Codex is essentially the new ChatGPT. Yes, [the "Super App"](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) is here. Unfortunately, it super sucks. Again, I knew all of this [was coming](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%B8%F0%9F%8F%BB%E2%80%8D%E2%99%82%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%27s%20%22Super%20App%22) thanks to leaks and just general statements from various OpenAI executives. But somehow I still wasn't prepared. Because I assumed that given [OpenAI's solid history of product prowess](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/), I thought this new ChatGPT would just be... better? Instead, it's seemingly just Codex merged with ChatGPT to look and importantly, *act*, like Anthropic's Claude Mac app. But the Claude Mac app is also sort of a mess! It's a tangle of toggles and strange UI decisions. OpenAI took the straightforward ChatGPT app and made a mess. Yes, part of that mess is because it's [seemingly no longer](https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/09/openai-announcing-the-next-chapter-for-chatgpt-today-watch-here/?ref=spyglass.org) a native Mac app but instead a bloated Electron package. I'm not [as religious](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/07/09/todays-the-day-openai-fucked-up-the-chatgpt-mac-app?ref=spyglass.org) about such things [as John Gruber of *Daring Fireball* is](https://daringfireball.net/2026/07/claudes%5Fcriminally%5Fbad%5Fmac%5Fapp%5Fis%5Fan%5Finside%5Fjob?ref=spyglass.org), but, yeah, this sucks, relatively speaking. Electron apps, by their nature, simply aren't as performant as native apps. I understand the cross-development and deployment trade-offs – I was a board observer [at Slack](https://slack.engineering/building-hybrid-applications-with-electron/?ref=spyglass.org) back in the day – but OpenAI sort of bait-and-switched us here.[1](#one) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.54.26---PM.png) Look how they massacred my boy. But to me, the bigger issue is the UI choices. It took me a while to figure out what was going on with 'ChatGPT Work' – and that was after I watched [the unveiling video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq45rvPGNHs&ref=spyglass.org). I knew this was a new aspect of ChatGPT, but I assumed the "old" aspect would remain as the default here. You know, chat. Having written a post entitled ["Chat is dead"](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) specifically about OpenAI moving away from the chat paradigm for ChatGPT, I also probably should have realized this! But I just didn't think OpenAI would make this transition so jarring. When I see the new ChatGPT app launch into 'ChatGPT Work', I instinctively assume it's an enterprise version of the app. Instead, OpenAI clearly means for 'ChatGPT Work' to evoke 'Claude Cowork', you know the agentic set of Claude tools, but this is insanely clunky branding. As much as people may know Claude Cowork, probably infinitely more think of Microsoft's enterprise suite of productivity tools when they see 'Work'. Or they think of the English language itself. And 'ChatGPT Work' makes it sound like it's ChatGPT to use *at work*. Like [as in your office](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/). As in not for home. Not for personal use. My god this is stupid branding. It's not bad in the way Microsoft branding is [often bad](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-office-brand-ruined/). It's just dumb. Anyway, my immediate instinct was to click on the 'ChatGPT Work' drop-down and try to get back to 'ChatGPT' itself. But there is no such option. *But there is an option*: it's to switch to 'ChatGPT Codex'. What the fuck? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.45.57---PM.png) I thought that was the whole point of this new app? That Codex was now ChatGPT. But as it turns out, they really wanted to exactly copy Anthropic here. So 'ChatGPT Work' – again, their version of Claude Cowork – is distinct from 'ChatGPT Codex' – their version of Claude Code. Why these have to be different things, I don't know. I mean I think I *do* know. I think it's so as not to piss off/confuse developers. At the same time, both OpenAI and Anthropic have been adamant that their coding tools are for far more than developers. In fact, software development may already be [a minority use case](https://www.zdnet.com/article/anthropic-claude-cowork-comes-to-phone-web-cloud/?ref=spyglass.org). So they *will* clearly be merged at some point. And OpenAI could have taken the lead here, but chose not to. Confusing us all! Of course, the real confusion stems from the *one main thing* they're doing differently than Anthropic here: they don't default you into 'Chat'. Let's just pause for a moment to consider how insane it is that a product called 'ChatGPT' doesn't default you into chat mode but instead "work" mode. Again, Claude does default to chat by way of a toggle (where you can switch to Claude Cowork) which is separate from their main toggle (where you switch to Claude Code). That's not great, but OpenAI's UI choice is somehow much worse. 'Chat' got shoved into the sidebar. Yes, 'Chat' is now a buried sub-menu feature of ChatGPT. It's below 'New task' (for ChatGPT Work), 'Scheduled' (for ChatGPT Work), and 'Plugins' (for ChatGPT Work). The priorities could not be any more loud and clear. But crazier still is that clicking on 'Chat' doesn't take you into the good, old ChatGPT chat area we know and love, instead it launches a pop-up box from the bottom of the window. A goddamn pop-up! Yes, I suppose this is a known 'chat' paradigm. But it's one that sucks! And while you can pop-out the box into its own window (there you are, old friend), there's also a 'minimize' button which doesn't actually minimize the window into some sort of bottom toolbar like you might expect, but instead it just *closes* the window. You can also move the chat window around in the ChatGPT app environment, which is different from popping it out to move it around (which naturally has its own, different minimize/maximize/close toggles per normal macOS window standards). I mean, what? But the reason why OpenAI was undoubtedly okay doing all this is even more confusing! Because while it's labeled as a 'task' rather than a 'chat' you can still just chat with ChatGPT in the chat box even when in *task* mode as you normally would in the old ChatGPT. How's that for a sentence? In other words, as best I can tell, you can use 'ChatGPT Work' just as you used to use ChatGPT itself. The phrasing is all different and confusing "Do anything" is the new "Ask ChatGPT" prompt in the box – I get the sentiment, but come on, "Do anything"?! – but it works. Okay, that's 1,100 words shitting on this update. I will say something nice: the new model toggle, which is now just a slider for you to indicate where on the spectrum from 'Faster' to 'Smarter' you want to be, is pretty nice. There are [still way too many options](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) – six! – but it's better than having to choose a model name/number.[2](#two) I'm only a few hours in, but I seriously think that's the only nice thing I have to say about this change. Again, I understand why they're doing it, but I just thought they would do this more gracefully. Honestly, they're probably a bit trapped. Given the recent success Anthropic is seeing – and the numbers OpenAI themselves are seeing with their own Codex product – [they obviously feel the need](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) to make these changes, but given all of the above, they probably should have changed the name from 'ChatGPT'. At the same time, they undoubtedly couldn't do that because they have so much mindshare with it – [it's the 'Kleenex' of AI right now](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/). So even though ChatGPT now has little to do with *chat*, here we are. Oh yes, and have I mentioned that the new web experience for ChatGPT is *entirely different*? The web app defaults to, you guessed it – or perhaps not! – 'Chat'. There's a toggle at the top (which is a completely different UI than the Mac app) to move to 'Work'. Not 'ChatGPT Work' mind you, as it is in the new app, just 'Work'. (I suppose they wanted to avoid the embarrassment of having to label the other box 'ChatGPT Chat'.) And yet there is no option for 'Codex' (though presumably that will come at some point, with Anthropic also moving such tools to the web). It's a cleaner and more straightforward UI – even if the 'Chat' and 'Work' toggle also still make it seem too much like a 'work and play' dynamic. So one presumes OpenAI's assumption is that anyone willing to download the Mac app will be intending to do work – meaning not necessarily actual "work" but instead just general agentic uses. Meanwhile, anyone more casually looking to chat will most likely just use the web. I guess that's fine, but it's confusing, and yes, sucks. Because I would often use the previous version of the Mac app as my go-to always-on chat app (using the option-space shortcut to bring up the nice mini overlay). The new settings area of the new app is so convoluted it's almost Microsoft-ian, if not Facebook-ian in nature. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.04.32---PM.png) My god, it's full of toggles. Speaking of, with these changes, my mind goes back in time to when Facebook rolled out the News Feed. This is *that* jarring of a change. Obviously, despite the backlash at the time, that ended up being one of the best calls Meta ever made as a company. Perhaps this shift from chat to "work" will be the same for OpenAI. At the highest level, [moving beyond simple chat](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) – [to voice](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) and other paradigms – makes sense. But it's too convoluted and messy to see it right now. Bigger picture: I worry that ChatGPT is ceding the consumer AI space. Or worse, that they just intend to take their [massive foothold](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) and milk it for needed revenue [by shoving ads into our faces](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/). Potentially even more problematic for OpenAI: [this is just as Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) and Apple are [nearly ready](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/) to pick up that potential slack. [I already thought](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) that the new Siri AI was going to end up as the default chatbot for many *if not most* Apple users, simply thanks to its default (and [finally "good enough](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/)") status. Now I'm even more sure of it because ChatGPT has become such a mess on the Mac. Let's see what they do – or hopefully *don't do* – with mobile... **One more thing:** Nearly lost in yesterday's flurry of releases is the news that Atlas, OpenAI's not-even-year-old web browser, will [also be no more](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/). While it [launched to much fanfare last October](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/), the reality remains that it's just an insanely hard area in which to compete, [perhaps the hardest](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/), given Google's dominance with Chrome on desktop. I actually quite liked Atlas and would often use it as a secondary web browser (after Dia, [still my preferred "AI Browser"](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/)). But that was mainly because it was fast relative to the comically bloated Chrome and too-resource-cautious Safari. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.25.04---PM.png) Atlas, is that you? As expected, Atlas does live on, in a way, inside of this new ChatGPT app, but good luck finding it! Here's a hint, it's in the 'side panel' which you have to toggle on via a button in the upper right corner of the app. Here, you'll also find the ability to have a "Side task" (which is a concept I like, but come on, "Side chat" was right there!). Atlas, if it's even still called that, is now about as bare-bones as a browser can be and seems mainly to exist for agentic purposes. [Which I guess makes sense](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/). Oh, there's also a 'bottom panel' where the browser and side tasks can reside alongside the Terminal. In a way, the new ChatGPT app is like the new Windows! So if the goal was for the "Super App" to be the new, convoluted operating system,[3](#three) mission accomplished, I guess? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-1.36.09---PM.png) Windows 2026 --- **Update July 17, 2026**: As you'd hope, they're backtracking on a lot – though certainly not all – of these changes... [OpenAI Makes ChatGPT ChatGPT AgainStill far from perfect, but less of a complete and utter mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-bcb65a79-b739-40ef-8138-4dd65f89c15d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-07-17-at-7.51.51---AM-2-beef9f1c-1755-472b-a11b-65cd93618b53.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-brings-back-chatgpt/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [“Chat is dead.”As OpenAI morphs ChatGPT, there are opportunities and risks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-c00e7f94-38a9-44bd-b7e6-04b7c65cf8c5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-7--2026--03_56_32-PM-1-493e317b-c289-46eb-ab88-70937facf763.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) [OpenAI is Busy Both Bundling and UnbundlingWith Sora coming to ChatGPT…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-845d59cf-2647-4047-819f-2688509fd4ff.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_36i4i636i4i636i4-089a0203-514a-48dc-8ab2-eb6a642adafc.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-168aad73-6e8d-40bc-8737-ed99113d909a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM-671d981b-53d9-44b1-b021-114070fde42c.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) [The Age of the “Super App” — Again and Again and AgainMeta. X. Coinbase. Airbnb. Uber. Snap. Spotify. ChatGPT. Even Disney. They’re all trying – and constantly failing – with this strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-dd600866-0304-45c7-9266-a4f3daf39fe3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-3--2026--10_21_10-AM-c09bb4bf-5c98-4af2-9368-0b1231f72bcc.png)](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) [The First True AI ChatbotAs in, actually chatting. As in, with voice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-49328744-772c-44e8-a0c6-16fca9f5de7f.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-9--2026--12_36_26-PM-434093ea-a996-429e-a94d-2a4276e890f1.png)](https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/) --- 1 Thankfully, it seems that, at least for now, you can have both the old ChatGPT app and new ChatGPT app installed at once – but you need to be careful to rename the old one first because they new one, with the same name, will override it! [↩](#) 2 How will the masses feel about such a change? [We'll see](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/)! [↩](#) 3 Complete with a hidden away "File Tree"! [↩](#) ### Your AI Margin is Meta's Opportunity URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-cloud-business-model/ Last updated: 2026-08-03T11:34:53.000Z Happy [Muse Spark 1.1 Day](https://www.techmeme.com/260709/p20?ref=spyglass.org#a260709p20) to those who celebrate. Which clearly includes Mark Zuckerberg, who is seemingly so giddy about the latest work out of his Superintelligence Lab that he's even [*tweeting*](https://x.com/finkd/status/2075218444056707458?ref=spyglass.org) for the first time in years. And [just as with](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) the first 'Muse Spark' – [still a silly name](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2041916328919945408?ref=spyglass.org) – model, the early results sound promising. Still not full-on frontier, but inching closer in certain regards like image generation and perhaps coding and some other agentic workflows.[1](#one) Anyway, with "Watermelon" – their true frontier model shot – [seemingly still growing on the vine](https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-ai-model-catches-up-openai-gpt-5-says-2026-7?ref=spyglass.org), performance isn't really the key today. I mean, a certain level of performance remains table stakes, but there are two other areas to focus on in today's announcement: charging for the API and the price they're charging. [Zuckerberg sat down with Kurt Wagner for *Bloomberg* to talk about it](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-09/meta-starts-charging-for-ai-with-muse-spark-1-1-agentic-model?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org): > “Since this is not an open source model, this is I think the first time that we’re doing a real serious API,” Zuckerberg said, referring to the application programming interface used to access Meta’s AI. “And the pricing is going to be very aggressive and attractive.” We've been over Meta's shift from open source – [many](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [times](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) – so I won't belabor it, but it is wild just how casually Zuck has [shoved it aside](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) given [his rhetoric](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) over the [past few years](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/). But hey, good leaders know when they need to change direction, [even if it's a 180](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) and makes previous statements seem a bit silly. Far more interesting is the fact that they're *charging* for the API and again, the pricing. To the first point, despite [endless efforts](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) to diversify their business over many years, Meta's revenue remains completely dominated by advertising. To the tune of something like 98%. [As I've noted before](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/), it's a great problem to have – but it's still a problem. And you can tell Meta knows this not only by all the efforts over the years to branch outside ads, but just the efforts [in recent weeks](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/) to move to sell premium subscriptions (many of which are tied directly to AI usage) and the rumored (but obvious) move to launch a Cloud offering. This API would be a part of that Cloud offering, so consider it a first step. And it's an important one because Meta is obviously coming very late to this game. So how do you enter such a crowded field? Price: > Meta will also introduce a new Meta Model API system, which will be used to collect fees from developers. Its API pricing is roughly 25% of the cost advertised by other top models from [OpenAI](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/C:US?ref=spyglass.org) and [Anthropic PBC](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/1892140D:US?ref=spyglass.org). Developers will be able to use Meta’s model for free, but only up to a point; they’ll be required to pay for access after reaching a certain token threshold, Zuckerberg said. > > “The pricing from some of the other labs is very extreme and has very high margins,” Zuckerberg said, underscoring that his strategy is to get Meta’s technology in front of as many people as possible. “We think that there’s a real ability to be able to offer frontier or very high-level intelligence at a much more affordable cost.” Yes, this is Zuck's "your margin is my opportunity" moment, echoing [the old famous Jeff Bezos quote](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/706779-your-margin-is-my-opportunity?ref=spyglass.org). Now, I assume the AI rivals would all say that they're *not* being overly aggressive on margin and that the cost is simply what they think can get them to some level of sustainability. Of course, while Anthropic may or may not be close to such a level, OpenAI famously is not. That's why they're raising $122B venture rounds. Mind-boggling numbers which, by the way, *still won't be enough* to take them to that sustainable level without some major tweaks to their model [and/or spend](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). And Meta just made that a lot harder today. In a way, it's more like "your lack of an underlying business to support your AI build out is my opportunity". Because, yes, Meta's ads cash machine allows them to execute such a strategy. [OpenAI also supposedly wants to drastically cut prices](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-considers-drastic-price-cuts-anticipating-war-for-users-with-anthropic-9b8c178e?ref=spyglass.org) to eat up market share, but again, how are they going to pay for that? At the same time, Wall Street would also like to know how *Meta* is going to pay for this. Because as great as the ads business is, at the end of the day, [the amount being spent](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) on the AI build out is going to eat into their profits and then some. That's undoubtedly part of the reason why Zuck is throwing them the 'Meta Cloud' bone. Also, it helps to have full founder control and voting shares and you can more or less tell Wall Street to Zuck off. But actually, Zuck is also making the case in this interview for why he feels like Meta *had to* (re)build their own frontier models: > “If you really want to build the best experiences for people, you have to be able to shape the underlying technology,” the Meta CEO said. Controlling the technology is going to let Meta “deliver exactly what we think is going to be the best experience.” Fair enough, though Apple would argue [they're building the exact best experience](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) they want by [paying Google to distill their models](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/). So couldn't Meta just have done that or something similar? > Zuckerberg is not convinced that the technology will ultimately become a commodity — that is, that all of the various AI models will essentially do the same thing and be more or less indiscernible from one another. He pointed to Mythos, the latest model from Anthropic, which [raised national security concerns](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/us-allows-trusted-partners-to-use-anthropic-s-mythos-5-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org) in the US, as an example of how companies are already gatekeeping aspects of the technology instead of sharing it widely. > > “The capabilities are not actually getting diffused or made broadly available to everyone,” Zuckerberg said. “Anthropic is sort of keeping a model for themselves and releasing a kind of simpler version of a model. And there are all these reasons for why they may or may not be doing it. But that at least does not suggest to me that the world is either heading in, or is guaranteed to head in, a direction where this ends up being something that is widely available.” In other words, if they relied too much upon someone else's models, Zuck knew they would run into the situation where those models could go away for any number of reasons. While perhaps no one thought [it would be the US government](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) who would pull them back, the point stands. Zuck has years of scar tissue from [being beholden to Apple](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) (and to a lesser extent, Google) in mobile. He wasn't about to let someone do it to Meta in AI. [Costs be damned](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/)! Wall Street should probably appreciate that. But won't. But they *will* appreciate charging for the API – even if it means undercutting prices – because of what it signals: the potential for a more diversified Meta and one that may yet figure out how to pay for that AI build-out... **One more thing:** Of all the juicy Zuck quotes, this must be the most succulent: > “That is a pretty interesting milestone because I think this may be the first time, at least that I can remember, that Meta’s models are better than all of the Google models,” he said. Ouch! [You think](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%89%20Is%20Google%20Behind%20In%20AI%3F%20Again%3F!) this is being passed around [Mountain View today](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/)? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/cartoon_vault_scene.webp) To throw Meta a bone, here's Muse Spark's version of the above prompt. I tried to do one with smartglasses, but he looked like the Unabomber. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta’s Inevitable CloudTheir need to diversify the business meets the AI build out concerns…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-3225a19e-fdb2-4bfb-b011-146fac18fe55.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-2--2026--02_16_08-PM-eddf4c85-2e7d-418f-94c4-7f77e764df34.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/) [Meta’s “Open”-ish New AI ModelsSure feels like the same proprietary playbook everyone else follows…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-19d30e0d-d342-4e81-bd95-f1106f6e9ceb.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-7--2026--07_31_45-PM-1-08b641d9-c32e-4495-be6b-bbb20352961a.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) [Meta Sets the Table with Table Stakes AI‘Muse Spark’ sparks the stock, but mainly through imagination…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-83ee3e31-d157-4bba-91ce-96f168fb8c32.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--07_24_49-PM-1-912a3e49-b9a1-4c83-b383-a416e0474c2a.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) --- 1 That's assuming we can trust the numbers that Meta is putting out there which, after the Llama 4 debacle, we should probably still wait for these to be verified by others. [↩](#) ### The First True AI Chatbot URL: https://spyglass.org/gpt-live/ Last updated: 2026-07-15T14:59:37.000Z Last night, I had a 20-minute conversation about black holes. I'm not sure I've ever had such a long conversation about these celestial bodies before simply because despite having read several books on the topic, I've never found myself around anyone who I thought would want to converse in such things. And it wasn't just a fact-based back-and-forth, but more of an actual *discussion* about more nebulous concepts and ideas. Most importantly, the conversation was *natural*. As we got into it, it felt like we found a flow in our cadence of speaking. I say "we" but of course there was only one human being involved in the chat. The other entity was ChatGPT. I have long [thought about](https://500ish.com/listen-2167a6bbd81e?ref=spyglass.org#.mgls2vd9p) and [written about](https://500ish.com/the-voice-28dd9a7ef462?ref=spyglass.org) the notion of [interacting with computers using voice](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/). Since I was a kid convincing my parents to buy expensive dictation software and microphones, this always just seemed like the way we would eventually interact with machines – and this was before I really started reading or watching science fiction. It's just obvious, right? In the era long before text messaging came to rule the world, the way we chatted with human beings wasn't via text, it was via voice. Sure, there were letters and the like, but that was more or less a hack to let your words travel long distances, or to the masses, before we had a way to transmit voice. Obviously, there are upsides to using text. Many of them. And obviously it started as not just the dominant way to "speak" to machines, but the *only* way. And to this day, it's still the primary way. Depending on the workflow, it can be more efficient. But not always. And again, it was a system we came up with because there was really no option to get machines to "hear" let alone understand voice inputs back in the day. And the output back to you was another matter entirely. But we're here now. Machines all around us can hear now. AI, of course, was the missing link in all of this. Back when we still called it "ML", voice recognition finally got good enough for most dictation tasks. But the true "understanding" and ability to reply back to you took the LLM breakthroughs. [I first wrote about this aspect](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) just over two years ago [when OpenAI rolled out GPT-4o](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) – their first true "omni" model. But again, this was just a continuation of concepts that I was writing about a decade ago. Because again, I had been [thinking about](https://parislemon.com/post/77133290161/silencio?ref=spyglass.org) this stuff since I was a kid. So naturally, I've had some real confirmation bias here and it has taken longer than it seemed for vocal computing to go truly mainstream. Yet slowly but surely, it is happening. You see it more and more in the streets and in offices – including, increasingly, doctors' offices – people dictating things to their phones. But despite [15 years worth](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) of [promises from Siri](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) and [later Alexa](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/), true back-and-forth – actual conversations with a computer – have been lacking. Some of it is cultural and societal, we've all grown up in a world where the primary input for computers – including smartphones – is text. But the bigger part has remained technical. It was still simply more efficient to use text for most tasks because you couldn't be sure voice would always work. Or voice just wasn't an option for many things. But mostly, it just wasn't natural. A back-and-forth with an AI chatbot was still just exactly that: *a back and forth*. You spoke and then had to wait for it to respond. Yes, the services starting with GPT-4o hacked together ways to allow you to interrupt to try to speed up interactions, but that often just confused both sides. With GPT-Live, it feels like we're finally overcoming this hurdle, allowing for a truly natural conversation with a machine. The key to this is what [OpenAI describes](https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-live/?ref=spyglass.org) as a "full-duplex" architecture: > GPT‑Live is built on a full-duplex architecture, meaning it can listen and speak at the same time. During conversations, GPT‑Live can show it’s paying attention with phrases like “mhmm” or “yeah”, engage in quick back-and-forth, or just stay quiet when you need a moment to think. The result is a voice experience that is refreshingly easy to talk to. And [whereas before](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20OpenAI%27s%20Aim%20to%20Own%20Vocal%20Computing) the voice models were different from the text-based models, now the vocal AI can pull from the same b*e*st models when responding. In my experience over the past day of usage, it's still not perfect – there's too much of those "mhmms" and "yeahs" (which, one presumes, is not just about sounding more natural, but also buying some time to process – the draggggged out "let me checks" – which is a trick that humans leverage as well, of course!), but you can see – and hear! – a world in which this is perfected. Will it be exactly like talking to a human? Probably not, but would we even really want that? I mean, I'm sure some people would for certain use cases, including combating loneliness. And I'm sure services will perfect products and models for such use cases. But I actually quite like talking to a computer, knowing it's a computer, but still leveraging our natural and awesome speech capabilities as humans. So, in my black hole conversation, I can push GPT-Live deeper and deeper down rabbit holes, whereas in a conversation with a human, this might be weird – or even pushy! And unlike with a human, I can take the conversation anywhere, because these machines have knowledge corpuses that know no bounds, quite literally. Forgive my French: that is fucking awesome. Sure, it has long been awesome – perhaps the main awesome thing about LLMs in general. But there's something different that unlocks, at least for me, when I use voice to do this. Again, it just feels far more natural. Yes, yes, there are concerns that what the machine is telling you isn't fully accurate. But actually, there are far greater concerns in this regard in conversations with humans! Great strides have been made in "hallucinations" over the past couple of years, but you should probably still retain some level of skepticism. Especially since, the flip side of the natural element of voice is that when something is said verbally with great confidence, you're naturally more inclined to trust what you're hearing. And AI has historically been [the ultimate bullshitter](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/). But again, [people are guilty of this too](https://500ish.com/wrong-positions-strongly-held-1ca9ba5292a?ref=spyglass.org)! Anyway, it feels like we're now fully on the cusp of a true shift in computing. Yes, I've long thought this, but it's step-by-step happening. And these new GPT-Live capabilities seem like they're going to unlock the space to the point where [new devices](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) may now be not just possible, [but inevitable](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/). For now, these models and capabilities will be awesome to use on smartphones and laptops. While one aspect of the demo that Siri head Mike Rockwell gave during the WWDC keynote was undoubtedly because voice gives a far better demo than text, [it also seems pretty clear](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) that we're about to see millions of people out in the wild hitting a button to chat – vocally – with Siri. *Finally*. And perhaps those who get really into this method of interaction start to venture into even more robust models such as those offered now by GPT-Live. And perhaps OpenAI leverages those capabilities to launch [their own device](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) sometime in the next several months. And perhaps many others follow suit once it's clear that this is [a new path forward for computing](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). As [I always note](https://500ish.com/computing-in-concert-679e68c14b8a?ref=spyglass.org) in such posts, I'm not saying voice is the be-all-end-all of computing interaction. But I'm saying it's going to slot in as a new, more natural form of working with machines – much like Apple ushered in the more natural touch capabilities with multi-touch with the iPhone two decades ago. My kids, who have grown up talking to Alexa to play music and get the weather are [instinctively going to understand](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) this new world in ways we cannot. That's exciting. And natural. They'll be able to go down rabbit holes talking about black holes or anything else they can possibly imagine. And they'll do so the same way they talk to people, with their voice. --- **Update July 15, 2026**: Well look at that – or read about it, at least. The rumored voice-first OpenAI device... [OpenAI’s Chat RobotWhat can Apple say about a device designed for vocal AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-49b8045d-11f5-4e33-bddf-3e855e4a2ca7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--03_41_09-PM-1-f42d90bc-7c65-486a-9437-a863acd0b6d8.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) --- 👇 ****Earlier this week on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix Needs a New ShakeupOutflanked by YouTube, they need a true focus on engagement…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-d415ad8a-5863-427e-b9bd-dc4559be1e84.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-6--2026--11_15_25-AM-1-70374db5-3a29-4b9d-9642-5fceaabd0e44.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/) [The Most Profitable Company Is... Samsung?The chip business pushes them past Apple – and even NVIDIA!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-70bc7865-9dfe-4205-8f6d-b1496891a03d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-7--2026--10_22_11-AM-ece80570-935c-4431-b322-4abb9f0a2996.png)](https://spyglass.org/samsung-profit/) [There Is No PhoneOpenAI is not building a phone. Amazon is not building a phone. And now SpaceX is not building a phone. Are you sensing a trend? The trend is that basically the entire tech industry is rumored to once again be building their own smartphones. But they’re all denying it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-fbdd8b03-bb62-4a17-a6d9-9ec9bca5a084.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/l-intro-1726070817-1bc16780-52be-4774-9ee1-9230cd1d3634.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/) ### There Is No Phone URL: https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-phone/ Last updated: 2026-07-09T15:08:52.000Z OpenAI is [not building a phone](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). Amazon is [not building a phone](https://www.ft.com/content/99ab7093-d680-40ad-baa7-1c32302bb363?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). And now SpaceX is [not building a phone](https://www.theverge.com/science/960442/spacex-phone-prototype-elon-musk?ref=spyglass.org). Are you sensing a trend? The trend is that basically the entire tech industry is rumored to once again be building their own smartphones. But they're all denying it. But all of the denials sound [misdirecting at best](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) and misleading at worst. Because *of course* [they should](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) be building such a device. [As should Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) (again). And Microsoft (again). And everyone else who aims to control their own destiny. Because right now, Apple, and to a lesser extent, Google, does. And [that's going to continue](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/), perhaps well into the Age of AI.[1](#one) So the argument is really one of semantics. OpenAI isn't building a phone, they're building... [something else](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). Amazon isn't building a phone, they're building... [something else](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/). SpaceX isn't building a phone... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The Most Profitable Company Is... Samsung? URL: https://spyglass.org/samsung-profit/ Last updated: 2026-07-07T09:36:41.000Z Move over Jensen, there's a new profit king in town. Well, in South Korea. It was just *six weeks ago* when NVIDIA (once again) reported blockbuster earnings to the tune of $53.5B in operating profit in a single quarter. I had AI use some NVIDIA chips to figure out that [this was an all-time record for such profit in corporate America](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/),[1](#one) beating out even the longtime profit king, Apple. Well, that record didn't last long – and again, didn't stay in America. [Here's Daisuke Wakabayashi and Jason Karaian reporting for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/business/samsung-earnings-chips.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Samsung Electronics said that its latest quarterly operating profit was nearly 20 times higher than last year’s, spurred by a seemingly insatiable demand for memory chips used in data centers for artificial intelligence. > > The preliminary results for April through June, announced by the South Korean tech giant on Tuesday, underscore how the staggering investments that companies are making to build computing infrastructure for A.I. continue to propel earnings for memory chip makers to record levels. > > Samsung said it generated an operating profit of 89.4 trillion South Korean won, or roughly $58 billion, in the second quarter. That was well above the 4.7 trillion won it earned in the same quarter last year, and more than it earned in 2024 and 2025 combined. The company’s revenue also more than doubled in the quarter, to about $112 billion. No, that's not a typo, let alone many of them. Samsung's operating profit jumped *almost 20x* year-on-year. $58B. More than it earned in 2024 and 2025, *combined*. Crazier still, it could have been more! [From the *Reuters* report](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/samsung-estimates-19-fold-rise-q2-operating-profit-beating-expectations-2026-07-06/?ref=spyglass.org) on the numbers: > Samsung posted better-than-expected earnings despite bonus-related provisions, as memory prices rose sharply," said Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities. > > Without those provisions, its operating profit would likely have exceeded 100 trillion won, analysts said. 100 trillion won is over $65B.[2](#two) Yes, per South Korean market reporting norms, the numbers are preliminary (with final ones due on July 30). Still. As recently as 2023, Samsung had reported $5B in operating income – *for the year*. Yes, this one quarter is over 10x all of 2023. Of course, that year was an outlier. Why? Memory chips! It was a downturn in that market – just three years ago – that ate nearly all of Samsung's profit. Now, of course, it's those very same chips which are fueling these incredible numbers. Outside of 2023, normally Samsung makes between $25B to $50B a year in operating profit. Again, they just topped that *in a single quarter*. Because whereas Samsung used to be a consumer electronic company – and like Apple, [mainly a smartphone company](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/) – now they're mainly a memory chip company. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-07-at-10.27.02---AM.png) If Apple has spent the past 20 years trying to figure out what, [if anything](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/), can move their fiscal needle after the iPhone, well, Samsung stumbled into it! And I do mean stumbled because up until [very recently](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-profit-tumbles-struggles-catch-011005933.html?ref=spyglass.org), their chip division was a massive problem for the company. They simply could not compete with the likes of TSMC as a fab and SK Hynix on memory. Now, thanks to massive supply constraints, all three are [amongst the most valuable companies](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/#:~:text=Technology%20Review%5D-,%F0%9F%93%88%20Samsung%20Hits%20%241T,-%E2%80%93%20What%27s%20wild%20is) in the world.[3](#three) Maybe, just maybe, [Apple should get more into the chip business](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/)? They are for themselves, of course. But that doesn't make money (at least not directly) as much as it saves them money (and yes, helps to differentiate their products). Imagine if Apple had a memory chip business? I'm sure Tim Cook wishes that was an investment he had made a decade or two ago [right about now](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/)... Of course, the business will undoubtedly bust again [at some point](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/). And even with these incredible numbers, Samsung's stock is actually *down* around 10% at the moment because analysts were expecting even larger numbers! So there's probably no champagne at Samsung today despite these results – especially lest someone think the cork pop is the sound of the [AI bubble bursting](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [NVIDIA’s Profit CrownJensen Huang just took the throne from Apple, at least in the US…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-b11eddfe-d2da-4d0b-b507-3c5ff1adaac1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--10_49_43-AM-57bba758-9886-4af8-954d-5ee8a6487463.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/) [The Market Shifts AppleApple used to bend suppliers to their will. The world has changed.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-00228377-589d-4268-8724-d5ea0d6a6aad.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-25--2026--11_40_24-AM-65b9a948-9755-45c5-ae37-b4fbba6624b6.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/) [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-ca8a1e46-045e-46e2-afb0-061071060c4b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr-0140ae2f-d33f-43a4-af7d-2fcc3aae43c2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) --- 1 And I note "corporate America" simply because Saudi Aramco muddies this picture a bit – specifically one quarter in 2022 when the war in Ukraine led to an oil price spike that boosted their operating profits to the moon – perhaps to nearly $100B. Of course, much of that money immediately flows back to the government, so it's a... different world. [↩](#) 2 Is that [employee profit share agreement](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Samsung%27s%20Bonus%20Situation) about to be renegotiated again? [↩](#) 3 To be clear and fair, Samsung's fab business is still somewhat problematic, and perhaps *lost money* in this incredible quarter due to the aforementioned bonus payouts. But it's without question a good strategic business for Samsung to be in at the moment. Just ask Intel! [↩](#) ### Netflix Needs a New Shakeup URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-binge-distribution-model/ Last updated: 2026-07-06T10:18:16.000Z [Netflix Viewers Are Abandoning Shows After One SeasonNetflix’s biggest hits are losing more than half of their audience after one season![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-94946525-5302-46bc-a09a-fd55b87d0503.png)BloombergLucas Shaw![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-8b0f7799-4fb3-418c-ba92-3b2e6075b033.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-05/netflix-viewers-are-abandoning-shows-after-one-season?submit=&ref=spyglass.org) Is Netflix in trouble? That's sort of the question underlying Shaw's post above. He's quick to note that it's Netflix, and history has proven time and time again that you can't count them out because they're good at figuring out [what's next](https://500ish.com/whats-next-for-netflix-6dc1cfa04c5?ref=spyglass.org) to keep going. But it seems pretty clear that it's time to shake things up again. > Netflix shows have historically delivered their biggest ratings [in the first season](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-12/netflix-releases-viewer-data-on-every-show-film-for-first-time?ref=spyglass.org). Unlike broadcast TV programs, which often peaked in the middle of their run thanks to word of mouth, Netflix shows have lost viewers over time. > > Yet the sharp drop in viewers is a major source of concern for the company, which has been studying its data to figure out why this is happening, according to people familiar with the matter. The service is ending *The Night Agent* after its next season. It renewed two comedies, *Running Point* and *The Four Seasons*, even though both shows surrendered more than 50% of their audience from season one. To me, there are a few obvious problems here. The first is that a lot of the content [just isn't very good](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/). Yes, this is subjective. And yes, this quality concern has [*long* been the case](https://500ish.com/the-great-okay-5acf7f61bf9a?ref=spyglass.org) with Netflix – to the point that they have [*multiple*](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/netflix-movie-strategy-fewer-better-films-1235782546/?ref=spyglass.org)[*times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/14/business/media/netflix-movies-dan-lin.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytimes&fbclid=IwAR2WzOBLYABeaBQNOfJqsyuj%5FG4uiRV2idM%5FBhn030fNeo6jCFGrSE1kVmo&ref=spyglass.org) come out and said that they would start focusing on quality, not just quantity. And yes, none of this has really [mattered](https://spyglass.org/the-electric-state-netflix-bad/) in the past as Netflix growth continued unabated. But that didn't mean it would *never* [matter](https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/top-10-reports/the-boroughs-netflix-ratings-cancellation-risk/?ref=spyglass.org). With streaming options maturing and rising in price, the others are getting pretty good at narrowing in on their niches and focusing on quality. Netflix remains the sort of fall-back must-have option, but it's increasingly seen as filler content. It's sort of like [basic cable](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/) versus the premium cable of old. To make matters worse, YouTube is coming fast and furious to take this market. Thanks to their nature – UGC content [amassing eyeballs](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) to the point where everyone feels like their content must be there in some capacity – they're simply better at it than Netflix. They're infinitely better at scaling content and so it matters less if it's a ton of garbage – there are plenty of gems too. Because there's just everything! YouTube is really out-Netflixing Netflix. In other words, Netflix is getting squeezed. Both from the top from better quality streamers like HBO Max, Disney+, and even Apple TV. And now from the bottom with YouTube – not to mention all the FAST services. Buying HBO Max by way of [buying Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) would have obviously helped with this problem. [But it didn't happen](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/). So again, it's time to re-think the strategy here. Maybe they actually – *actually* – focus more on quality and start to cut the crap. But it's also bigger than that. The second issue I believe is tied to what has historically been their strength, their calling card even: the binge model. Obviously it has worked out well for them – to say the least! – but I'm not sure it's working any longer. [I've long thought](https://500ish.com/the-strange-thing-about-stranger-things-7f2f7d256de6?ref=spyglass.org) it might be time to re-think this model – not necessarily abandoning it, but [tailoring it](https://500ish.com/from-binge-watching-to-appointment-viewing-8baa2e07c671?ref=spyglass.org) for certain releases. For example, maybe a first season is released binge-style to get people hooked, followed by a more "traditional" second season that builds week to week. Or maybe you do what other streamers have long done in releasing the first few episodes to get people hooked then switch to week to week. There are just [so many options here](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-ending-installments/). The "second season problem" Netflix seems to have suggests that one solution may be to do a first season binge (or partial binge) follow fast by a second season. In other words, get two seasons in the can at once. But that would be an expensive proposition, of course. Still, if you have a good sense of what will work for the audience, you could do it for some shows. But again, that sort of goes back to quality. And the issue remains that Netflix may be increasingly misreading their room. Tangential to this, I do think that because Netflix releases so many shows, there's a inherent fear that some will (necessarily) not get renewed. This leads to [a natural reluctance to commit](https://500ish.com/netflixs-purge-problem-1417de7738fe?ref=spyglass.org). Again, less would be more here. [I continue to think](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) the bigger shift should be [shaking up distribution](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) entirely. Some content goes to streaming but some goes to theaters. Some is binge-able, some is episodic. Some goes from a streaming show to a movie and others go the other way. Again, there are so many options here. But Netflix needs to leverage more than simply binge streaming. They're starting to with the [shift to live](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) and yes, the [thawing](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/) stance [on theatrical](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/). But they should go all-in on this shake-up. [The path to $1T](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) isn't paved with streaming alone. [Obviously](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/).[1](#one) In the past, Netflix has been insistent that the binge model works because their data doesn't lie. But the data may deceive. It could lead to content that people may get something out of but ultimately don't care about. The one-night-stand of shows, as it were. Data aside, it was impossible to argue with their growth. But suddenly, it's not so impossible, it seems! --- 1 I mean, should *they* buy Disney [before Apple can](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/)? Hollywood would throw up at the thought, [of course](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). But their throwing up on the Warner Bros deal [likely just made things worse for the industry](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) in the long run... [↩](#) ### Meta's Inevitable Cloud URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-cloud/ Last updated: 2026-07-06T16:24:55.000Z Meta has a problem. Well, two of them, actually. First, after years and years spent [trying to diversify](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/), their business is still almost entirely advertising-based. To be clear, it's a great business – one of the best ever created, in fact. It's a good problem to have, but it's still a problem. Because if that business ever slows... Look out below. That leads to the second problem. The latest way Meta thinks they can fix the first problem is with AI. Sure, they'll use AI to super-charge the ads business, but ideally it will also unlock other businesses for them. Again, to diversify. Currently, they view it as the key to their devices strategy, [led by their smartglasses](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/). But they're also working on other products and ways to potentially monetize AI beyond just selling ads. But the problem here is that it's expensive to build out those AI capabilities. Like, [insanely expensive](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). Like the most expensive endeavor in human history, perhaps. Wall Street [doesn't like this](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/). Specifically, Wall Street doesn't like this *for Meta*. Why? That first problem. Because unlike their Big Tech peers also clearly determined to pour [all of their free cash flow](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) into the AI build out, Meta doesn't have an obvious, direct way to monetize the capabilities. Again, there are ads, but that's indirect. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are all selling their AI *directly*. Are you seeing it yet? These two problems have a single solution. It's not simple, but it is fairly straightforward: Meta needs a cloud business. It's a notion and solution that's so obvious that I've been noting it for quite some time now. After Meta bought Manus late last year (before they were [forced to un-buy](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/?ref=inklings-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%99%20Meta%27s%20Reverse%20Hackquisition) them), [it occurred to me](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) that at least part of the play was to get Meta into the business of selling products to *other businesses*. That is, enterprise sales. Granted, Meta has been *trying* to do this for years – remember [Workplace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workplace%5F%28software%29?ref=spyglass.org), their short-lived Slack competitor? – but nothing has really worked. Again, Meta has remained the ads-based social media company. But Manus was already working. And beyond their consumer angle, there was clearly a big business brewing in selling agentic workflows to enterprises. As [I concluded that post](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/): > This deal seemingly makes a lot of sense for Meta on a few fronts. And it also may point to the start of a renewed push into enterprise. Again, easier said than done, but don't be shocked if this is a wedge of sorts. If they can keep Manus expanding into businesses, we should see other Meta cloud offerings follow, putting them more in line with those aforementioned Big Tech peers. And perhaps easing some concerns Wall Street has with regard to their AI spend. Well, again, Manus, sadly, didn't really work out for Meta. But not because the business or the strategy wasn't good – if anything, those may have been *too* good, to the point where China took one look at the deal and said [essentially](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/?ref=inklings-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3%20China%20Blocks%20Meta%27s%20Manus%20Deal): "yeah, no." Honestly, Meta probably should have used the ["hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/) method to try to do the deal, but again, they clearly wanted the Manus *actual* business, not just the employees and some "non-exclusive rights". But I digress... The point is that with Manus, you could see a path for Meta to get a toehold into enterprise sales and expand from there – perhaps all the way up to a true cloud offering. A few weeks later, another bit of Meta news made this general game plan even more obvious, at least to me. [As I wrote about](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184471593/metas-compute-initiative?ref=spyglass.org) the formation of "Meta Compute" – their formal AI infrastructure play: > When I read about this new initiative within Meta, I can’t be the only one who assumes it will eventually lead to a full-on Meta Cloud, right? Again, it seemed fairly obvious, though a number of people pushed back on the notion. Specifically because it would be so far afield from Meta's core business – and a huge potential headache, going up against the aforementioned Amazon, Google, and Microsoft clouds. That's obviously true, and I noted as much – in particular how it has taken Google years and several micro-pivots to be able to effectively compete in the space. Why? Because for as massive as Google is, and as good as they have always been with infrastructure, they didn't have the muscles to really do enterprise sales. It took bringing in someone like [Thomas Kurian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas%5FKurian?ref=spyglass.org) from Oracle to make that happen. And he has made that happen. To the tune of $20B in revenue a quarter – fast approaching a $100B/year business for Google. That makes it nearly 20% of Google's overall revenue – and again, rising. My point is simply that Google, a company once knocked as being a one-hit wonder thanks to their ads business – again, one of the best businesses ever created – eventually found a way to diversify. It was painful and took a long time, but it worked. [No one talks about](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) them being a one-trick pony anymore. Meta has tried many things to diversify – going so far as to change the name of the company to one of those bets that, at least thus far, [has not panned out](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) – but they haven't tried the one that has worked so well for Google. And so while some thought Meta doing a cloud business would be crazy because it's so far from their core, I viewed that as sort of the point. Again, they need to diversify! But one final element really drove this notion home: the AI build-out. When Meta rolled out their first "Muse Spark" models in April, the most interesting element to me wasn't the models themselves but the idea of how they might sell access to them. [As I wrote at the time](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/): > **One more thing:** perhaps the most interesting element of the Muse movement is the notion that Meta intends to sell access via APIs. A first step [towards a bigger Meta Cloud offering](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/)? You don't [spend](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) $140B a year [for table stakes](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). Even with these new models out there in the wild, and [Meta's AI pivot](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) from their [failed Llama strategy](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) seemingly on the cusp of being complete, Wall Street continued to throw up all over the company due to their CapEx spend without that clear path to directly monetize it. Given their valuation as a private company, investors have started to worry about this as well for OpenAI. And so unsurprisingly, the company has [started to say](https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007?ref=spyglass.org) that they might be able to launch a cloud offering of sorts to help support [their infrastructure build out](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). I've called this ["Field of Dreams Economics" in the past](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) – that is, if you build it (the data centers), they will come (the cloud customers). It's unproven at best, and folly at worst. In walks Elon Musk... In a way, Meta and xAI [found themselves in the same boat](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) having spent billions to try to catch up in AI and not having much to show for it. At first, [it looked like](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) throwing money at the problem would work, but now it looks more like they've built out and up a ton of compute capacity without the demand to truly put it to work. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft don't have this problem, because beyond the varying degrees of success for their own AI products, they have third-party customers. Which is to say, they have their clouds. As a result, if anything, they each have the opposite problem: they're having a hard time striking the right balance between their own needs and those of their customers. In a way, at the highest level, this is clearly what drove [Microsoft to push OpenAI away](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/). As a customer of their cloud services – the most massive customer – they were eating Azure alive. These days, we have Google telling Meta that they need to [cut back their compute usage](https://www.ft.com/content/c5d52f72-71ef-40bc-bad3-61afdba8b378?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, what this all showcases is that the cloud demand is there – and rising. And beyond AI services, raw compute is driving much of this. This, in turn, led Elon to connect the obvious dots on his own problem. In an age where data center capacity is king, xAI found itself holding the crown jewels. They clearly didn't *want* to be in that position – they'd love for demand for xAI models to take up all available compute – but it's actually not a bad position to be in given the current situation. And that's especially true if you're, say, [about to IPO](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) and need a good narrative around why you merged your cash-incinerator (xAI) with your cash machine (SpaceX). xAI is not a cash-incinerator, as it turns out – well, it still is, but not as big of one because it's also now a cash *generator* [in the form of a neocloud](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/)! Yes, Elon figured out a way to turn his space company into a cloud company too. He wants it to be an AI company, and it is, to some extent, but the better narrative is the cloud, because it's the far better business at the moment. And while the "neocloud" business isn't exactly what Amazon, Google, and Microsoft offer, it's arguably a far more straightforward cloud business. Granted, it's one that may be [a moment-in-time thing](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) given the capacity constraints that are even forcing even Big Tech to cut deals with the neoclouds to try to boost their capacity. Still, it's better than just burning money with nothing to offset it! Zuckerberg clearly saw Elon's jujitsu maneuver in getting first Cursor to sign up to use xAI's compute, and then Anthropic, and finally Google. And saw how the market reacted: a huge potential weakness (AI costs) got turned around to help fuel the largest IPO in history. If everything else above made it clear that Meta would need to have a cloud business at some point, the SpaceX neocloud made it an imperative to happen – or at least be talked about – *now*. Meta's stock is in the dumps? Zuck could simply [pull the "Elon Lever"](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=Meta%27s%20would%2Dbe%20third%2Dparty%20cloud%20computing%20offering%20is%20%22definitely%20on%20the%20table%22%20according%20to%20Zuck.%20Which%20is%20obviously%20him%20pulling%20the%20%22Elon%20Lever%22%2C%20to%20suggest%20all%20their%20CapEx%20spend%20could%20pay%20off%20in%20the%20way%20xAI%27s%20have%20with%20Anthropic%20and%20Cursor%20striking%20%22neocloud%22%20deals.%20%5BCNBC%5D). And now he has. I've buried the lede some 1,750 words in, but yes, Meta is planning to launch a cloud business, [reports Riley Griffin and Kurt Wagner for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-01/meta-is-building-a-cloud-business-to-sell-excess-ai-compute?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta Platforms Inc. is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business that will sell access to AI computing power and models, setting up a new vector of competition with industry leaders like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. > > Meta, which has been rushing to secure expensive data centers and other infrastructure to fuel its own artificial intelligence ambitions, is forming a business to generate revenue from excess computing power sold to outside customers, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the details aren’t public. There we go. But they're also seemingly torn in terms of what their cloud should offer: > One potential plan includes selling access to various AI models that are hosted on Meta’s existing AI infrastructure, an approach similar to AWS’s Bedrock offering, the people said. Meta would run the data centers and chips that power the models, including its own Muse Spark models, and charge developers to access them. > > The company is also considering selling access to “raw” computing capacity, akin to other so-called neocloud businesses like CoreWeave Inc., the people said. Development of these new business lines is part of Meta Compute, an internal initiative to build and manage the company’s AI infrastructure efforts, according to a person familiar with the plans. Meta Compute is led by Santosh Janardhan, Meta’s head of infrastructure; Daniel Gross, a leader inside the Meta Superintelligence Labs AI unit; and Meta President Dina Powell McCormick. The answer may end up being both. The reality is that it will end up being whatever the market demands. And what investors end up liking. And sure enough, Meta's stock, after months in the Wall Street doghouse, shot up nearly 10% yesterday on this news. Now, maybe it's all a head fake just to juice the stock, but it certainly doesn't seem that way. It seems like Meta is figuring out a way to launch a cloud service that will add to their top and bottom lines. And that should, in turn, help to diversify their business away from ads. That doesn't mean they'll offer everything that Amazon, Google, and Microsoft do – and they probably shouldn't even try to do that. But they should probably have some sort of neocloud offering, at least to start, mixed with that 'Bedrock' competitor, which would include selling their own models via APIs. And perhaps they can even hark back to [their "open source" AI roots](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) by serving up DeepSeek models and the like. Maybe down the road, Meta starts to augment their AI cloud with other types of cloud services. And maybe one day 'Meta Cloud' even makes up a double-digit percent of revenue. Or maybe it doesn't work, just as [many of Meta's recent initiatives haven't](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/).1 But it's certainly worth trying, for the optics alone, if not the actual business potential. [It has been](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-conference-season/) obvious and inevitable for a long time now. 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****A few other** ***Spyglass** **posts from this past week...** [Comcast is Unbundling... ComcastThe company can’t stop cutting itself in two, but who is buying? Netflix? SpaceX?!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-43b22cfa-747d-4178-854e-14c6ae749998.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_hinyfihinyfihiny-8cb35b1b-daac-40ec-88eb-843dd8da5a43.png)](https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/) [Meta, Be BetterGetting banned on WhatsApp is both bullshit and a real problem.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-0aaabe20-a101-4581-a58b-639163f32ca9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0775-copy-680544fa-6bb3-46c6-ac7e-f17f60502cc7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/whatsapp-ban/) [Natural Born BloggersRest in peace, Om Malik.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-d039fdb4-60cf-4f33-8782-19bbd83ad4da.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-28--2026--08_00_15-PM-bf054f52-cab1-4114-ac3e-01ca362327ed.png)](https://spyglass.org/om/) --- 1 Certainly I'm more than a little worried about Meta's ability to execute on much of anything, as I'm currently on day 3 of [getting continuously banned by WhatsApp](https://spyglass.org/whatsapp-ban/) which they can't seem to fix... ### Meta, Be Better URL: https://spyglass.org/whatsapp-ban/ Last updated: 2026-07-07T12:16:55.000Z A couple years back, [I was banned by Instagram](https://spyglass.org/wrongly-banned-by-instagram/). Because I happen to know a few people there,[1](#one) I got it resolved and my account back online relatively quickly. But I never got an answer for what actually happened.[2](#two) A few months later, I found myself banned *again*. Again, I pinged some people. Again I was reinstated. Again, I got no explanation other than someone – or something – messed up. Again. While those bans also instantly took out Facebook and Messenger, I was lucky that it left WhatsApp alone. Because, living in Europe, I'm forced to run a lot of my actual life through WhatsApp because it's the service many people rely on here as their primary messaging service. Boy, it would suck if I was banned from WhatsApp. [As I just learned first-hand tonight](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DaOEJ-aiKtm?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, that's right, for a *third* time in as many years, I've been banned by Meta. What for? Do you really have to ask? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). My suspicion is that it's directly tied to the claiming of usernames on WhatsApp, which [Meta opened up yesterday](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1dykk3135xo?ref=spyglass.org). After I claimed mine, it seemingly logged me out of my other active instances. And when I went to log back in... boom.[3](#three) Banned. No explanation. No warning. Just a note that "This account can no longer use WhatsApp." As with Instagram and Facebook, you can submit a review of the ban and they say they'll look at it and let you know within 24 hours – but no promises. When I did this the first go-around with Instagram, *I actually lost the appeal*. Why? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). Again, it took a personal plea. And I'm insanely lucky to be able to do that. As my replies then and now can attest, many are not so lucky. Many are just banned and never heard from again. At least on those services. This is bullshit. How do I know this is bullshit? Because it literally happened to me! And, in fact, *keeps happening to me*! And I'll get it fixed again because I just so happen to know people, which is arguably worse bullshit! But hopefully this blogpost, perhaps summoning some spirit from [my late friend Om Malik](https://spyglass.org/om/), can help light a fire under Meta to actually fix some of this nonsense. I don't know who is minding the ship over there, but my fear is that no one is. That they've automated the shit out of all of these systems. And that they've laid off the people who used to be in charge of such things and stopped it from happening. And that AI is going to make all of this so much worse. Further, the fact that Meta "[hackquired](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" a company to be able to [outsource the management of WhatsApp](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/22/whatsapp-gets-new-chief-as-meta-taps-indias-cred-founder-kunal-shah-and-invests-900m-in-startup/?ref=spyglass.org) ~~to India~~ isn't making me feel better about any of this. I'm sure it's unfair, but it also sure looks like Meta is saying that a core social property, *a service they acquired with billions of users*, is no longer important enough to be run by their core team. *\[Update: I had written initially that the service would be run out of India, which* [*wasn't clear at first*](https://www.asiatechreview.com/p/meta-forks-out-1-billion-for-a-new?ref=spyglass.org)*, but apparently CRED founder Kunal Shah* [*will be moving*](https://www.business-standard.com/companies/people/who-is-kunal-shah-meta-whatsapp-ceo-cred-meta-126062300146%5F1.html?ref=spyglass.org) *to Meta HQ, which is good, but the main point stands.\]* They will, of course, suggest the opposite is true. That because the rest of the world is so important to WhatsApp that it *should* *be* run by a "hackquired" entrepreneur from that part of the world. But all I see in [the news](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0my4n38myjo?ref=spyglass.org) is that Meta was having a hell of a time monetizing WhatsApp after years and years and they think [they found someone who can do that](https://www.ft.com/content/442bdba8-6f7e-4ddf-a99b-a8ba102d247f?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). Also, [how have those other "hackquisitions" worked out for everyone?](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/) What I see is Meta no longer giving a shit about the product or the experience, just the monetization. They're ready to fucking [milk it](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). [Yuck](https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-product/). Why? To try to diversify away from their [98% reliance on advertising](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/). Why? To try to get permission [from Wall Street](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) to keep spending on AI. Why? To try [to finally find "what's next"](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) now that they can [no longer acquire](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/) entities like [Instagram and WhatsApp](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/). And also because AI will help them automate and supercharge the ads that they so heavily rely upon. And also the content moderation that they hate having to pay people to do. You know, like on WhatsApp. **Hold on.** I just spoke to a friend who I communicate with primarily on WhatsApp. Apparently, they're sending me messages right now with no indication that I've been banned and that they're not getting through. **What the fuck?!** I've fallen too far into the Meta org weeds here. Let me just point out that I run a lot of my household through WhatsApp – including childcare. Imagine if there was an issue with a child and someone was frantically trying to get ahold of me and couldn't because I've been banned? Honestly, should that even be legal? Sure, I could not use WhatsApp, but again, I sort of have to. I can't force all of Europe to switch over to iMessage – though I would certainly like to right now! And so it feels like that Meta shouldn't just be able to ban you from a service you use to operate your life – especially since it's tied to your phone number. Maybe that's why they're switching to usernames? But fine, ban me, but **tell the person trying to communicate with me** – potentially about very important things in my life – that they need to reach me some other way. That these messages will not get through to me. **This is fucking insane, Meta.** Honestly, I would love to pull the plug on all Meta services in my life. I get [little joy](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/) out of them [anymore](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) and far more pain and [annoyance](https://spyglass.org/cut-the-bullshit-instagram/). It's just not clear to me that anyone at Meta really cares anymore, perhaps ever since [the ill-fated name change](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) of the company. They just keep searching for what they [want to be next](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) – [gambling](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2069473744834498671?ref=spyglass.org), [GAMBLING](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html?ref=spyglass.org)! – while constantly neglecting what they actually are. --- **Update June 30, 2026**: Well, as expected, I was un-banned... for about 5 minutes. I went to log-in to WhatsApp on computer and... immediately re-banned! **Update July 1, 2026**: Was reinstated this morning. Went to log-in on my computer and surprise: immediately banned again. It's clearly amateur hour over at Meta right now. Or worse, AI hour? --- 1 I was/am user #28 of the service, having started [using it months before it was actually live to the world](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/20/instagram/?ref=spyglass.org). I've been verified for years. Still banned with no pings or warnings. [↩](#) 2 And the wording was pretty wild. So wild that I won't even repeat it... [↩](#) 3 My best guess would be that I use a lot of different devices and because of WhatsApp's clunky authentication process, they may not like seeing so many machines get logged in so quickly? I'm honestly not sure. But it all seems pretty clearly tied to the username situation. Which, if true, is stupid. Who could have known? [↩](#) ### Comcast is Unbundling... Comcast URL: https://spyglass.org/comcast-nbc-universal-netflix-spacex/ Last updated: 2026-06-29T13:31:40.000Z [Comcast to Split NBCUniversal and Cable Operations Into Two CompaniesComcast, just months after the Versant spinoff, is cleaving itself into two separate companies: one housing its namesake cable and tech operations, and the other comprising NBCUniversal media biz.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-5922b549-d4c3-48c1-ba05-2a3941d091ac.png)VarietyTodd Spangler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Comcast-NBCUniversal-logo-653cb96b-5000-4f25-a3b3-4c09f9c2bf37.jpg)](https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/comcast-split-nbcuniversal-cable-two-companies-1236798205/?ref=spyglass.org) We're just [six months](https://spyglass.org/decidedly-not-live-from-ces/#:~:text=%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,%F0%9F%93%BA%20Versant%20Lives!,-%E2%80%93%20And%20more%20importantly) from Comcast casting off their cable networks to the island of misfit toys in the form of the [wonderfully generically named 'Versant'](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/cue-sunk-my-battleship?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=We%20have%20a%20name%20for%20Comcast%E2%80%99s%20unwanted%20children%20TV%20networks%3A%20Versant.%20But%2C%20as%20it%20turns%20out%2C%20what%20sounds%20like%20generic%20corporate%20gibberish%20is%20actually%20a%20word%20meaning%20%22a%20region%20of%20land%20sloping%20in%20one%20general%20direction%22.%20Which%20direction%20might%20that%20be%20in%20this%20case%3F%20%5BVariety%5D). Now Comcast is at it again: > Comcast, just months after shedding most of its cable TV business into Versant Media, is now again cleaving itself into two separate companies: one housing its namesake cable and tech operations, and the other comprising the NBCUniversal and Sky media biz. > > Under the proposed separation, announced Monday, Comcast intends to make a tax-free spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky. After the transaction is completed, Comcast shareholders will own shares in both Comcast and NBCUniversal. The big question, of course, would be "why?" The answer, of course, would be "buy." As in seemingly no one is buying Comcast shares of late, with the stock down quite a bit post-Versant spin-off. At the same time, no one is yet buying Versant, the company, which was long thought to be the whole reason for the split. [Paramount Skydance's deal for Warner Bros Discovery](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) probably threw a wrench into those plans. Because until David Ellison came along, the plan was for Warner Bros and Discovery to also split into two this year – and boy wouldn't it seemingly make sense for Discovery and Versant to be one bucket of assets that no one really wants, but at scale? [A Netflix deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) still could have made that work as they didn't want the networks, but sadly, the path for Paramount to win the deal was to buy the whole thing. Anyway, unless the soon-to-be Paramount Skydance Warner Bros Discovery – or, [as I like to call it, MountDanceWarBroDisco](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) – wants to also pick up Versant (or sell off some of their cable assets to Versant),[1](#one) we're about the have *three* different public companies whereas once there was one in Comcast. Presumably it's a bit of a "the sum of the parts will be greater than the whole" play. But also presumably a big part of that wouldn't be to have three different public companies, but instead for someone to buy at least two of them. Beyond Versant, the obvious one would be NBC Universal, which has[ a long, illustrious history of being merged, bought, and sold](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). Netflix, having lost the Warner Bros sweepstakes would be the obvious buyer here. But it's also not as clean and clear as Warner Bros. The Universal IP isn't as good and the great TV shows associated with NBC are often owned/controlled by someone else. Unlike with Warners, they'd also get one of the broadcast networks, which the current administration may not like too much, and Netflix may not want the headache of owning. Also, they'd get Sky, which could be an international headache. They'd also get some theme parks, which maybe they'd be interested in to beef up [their "experiences" play](https://spyglass.org/netflix-house-and-chill/) and better take on Disney – but who knows? Would Apple be interested? They might look as some of their content would help [bulk up Apple TV](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/), but probably not for all the headache reasons. YouTube? Maybe, but they might not be allowed to buy such a property given [their rising strength](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/). Disney, which owns ABC, wouldn't be allowed to buy another network. MountDanceWarBroDisco wouldn't be able to for the same reason and more. Amazon? Maybe? [There are some sports rights](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/)... Speaking of, the talk has long been that Peacock would need to merge with someone to get to a scale that can hold a candle to Netflix and Disney+. The thought there has also long been HBO Max and/or Paramount+. But now Peacock is sort of the player without a seat with the music stopping in musical chairs. Perhaps that's what prompted this move as well. We'll see who buys what. Regardless, people are at least buying up *the stock* once again on this news – *Comcast is currently up 23% in pre-market trading*. **One more thing:** Given that the current co-CEO of Comcast, Mike Cavanagh, will be the CEO of NBCU, maybe they believe the more likely asset to be sold is the Comcast telecom business, where the old Comcast CFO, Michael Angelakis, is coming back to steer the ship? Given [all the talk](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/spacex-charter-discussed-mobile-phone-partnership-in-us?ref=spyglass.org) about SpaceX trying to tie-up with Charter to use their spectrum to [help](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9B%B0%EF%B8%8F%20SpaceX%20Buying%20EchoStar%20Spectrum) launch [a consumer](https://spyglass.org/apple-starlink-spacex/) satellite/cellular hybrid [wireless service for Starlink](https://www.ft.com/content/42af0f15-3aa9-49b7-b429-4a39540af03e?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org)... well guess who else [has wireless spectrum](https://corporate.comcast.com/stories/comcasts-evolving-wireless-strategy?ref=spyglass.org)? Is this a quick play for SpaceX to buy Comcast ahead of partnering with Charter?! --- 1 Perhaps there's a way for Paramount to sell off CNN to Versant and/or the new NBCU to [placate some state attorney generals](https://puck.news/would-the-ellisons-give-up-cnn-to-close-warnermount/?ref=spyglass.org) (and [CNN itself](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/27/business/media/cnn-bari-weiss-david-ellison.html?ref=spyglass.org))? [↩](#) ### Natural Born Bloggers URL: https://spyglass.org/om/ Last updated: 2026-06-29T10:40:52.000Z As cliche as it is to write, I need to write it: I wouldn’t be where I am today without Om Malik. He was arguably the single most important person in the push to “professionalize” blogging. He was *inarguably* one of them. And that, in turn, opened the door for me to switch careers, sending me down [a path](https://mgsiegler.com/about?ref=spyglass.org) professionally that seemed extremely unlikely. I’m honestly [still](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DaBgOTQAexo?ref=spyglass.org) a bit speechless about [Om’s passing](https://om.co/2026/06/24/1966-2026/?ref=spyglass.org). But I also know he would be the first to tell me to blog about it, as a type of catharsis. And because that's what we do. [Om’s obituary in *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/technology/om-malik-dead.html?ref=spyglass.org) pulls heavily from [an interview he gave a decade ago with The Techies Project](https://techiesproject.com/om-malik/?ref=spyglass.org). It’s a great encapsulation of his story and reading it over, I was surprised and frankly, honored, to see that he mentioned me. Specifically noting that I, like himself, was perhaps part of a group of “natural born bloggers”. I love this for a number of reasons, but reading it in this context gives me some clarity on my own life. While from the outside, it seems like we stumbled into the world of blogging — and this is what I have long told people — it was perhaps more of a calling. An outlet to do what we innately sensed that we needed to do. And again, he figured out a way to professionalize it, which paved the way for me to do the same. I owe him a great debt for this that I can now never repay. When I made that jump two decades ago, Om was right there from the get-go, in my ear and in my inbox, encouraging me. Even though we were ostensibly rivals — first when I was at Matt Marshall’s *VentureBeat* and then when I was at Michael Arrington’s *TechCrunch*, which all sprung up around the same time as his own *GigaOm* — he was always so nice to me. Honestly, it unnerved me a bit at first because my natural instinct was to compete. But the reality was that we were all part of a group that was eating the lunch of the world he came from in “traditional” publications and journalism, and forcing change upon the industry. It was an exhilarating time to be blogging and Om was the linchpin of it all. As my inbox from back then confirms, he was the one behind the scenes pulling it along and holding it all together. Those of us more junior at the time – in [tenure](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/322043649460412416?ref=spyglass.org), if not in age – looked to him as a sort of Yoda. Blogging Yoda. Looking at my emails and social media [messages](https://x.com/search?q=from%3A%40mgsiegler%20%40om&src=typed%5Fquery&ref=spyglass.org) from back then is just a treasure trove. Om was always quick with a compliment about something I had written but also with a criticism at times. He clearly just read endlessly and couldn’t help but share his opinions, even if privately. In person too he was amazingly candid and honest. He would complain how annoyed he was if you beat him to some story — but complain even louder if he felt like he actually beat you but wasn’t getting enough credit. He was clearly competitive too.[1](#one) And he was correct in his assessments, because again, he was honest. We often had discussions about working together in some form, and I’m sad that never happened. His heart attack was sort of a wake up call for many about the downsides of the always-on, always-writing blogging lifestyle. And that perhaps put him on a path he also helped chart for me: shifting to venture capital. His thoughts on the differences between writing stories and writing checks in [that Techies interview](https://techiesproject.com/om-malik/?ref=spyglass.org) is far better than any answer I’ve ever given on the topic. Again, because it’s honest. To me, Om was and will always be such a singular individual. There will never be anyone quite like him. He’s the only person I know who could be both humorously downtrodden and insanely optimistic at the exact same time. Again, he just seemed to wear his emotions on his sleeve. So I find myself sad not just about his passing but for all of us who will no longer get to read [his unvarnished opinions](https://spyglass.org/apples-ad-ramp/) on various topics.[2](#two) And that’s perhaps especially troubling in tech with AI on the verge of upending everything. The world now needs Om’s voice and pushback – not to mention [context](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-art-of-the-zuck-memo?ref=spyglass.org) – more than ever just as we’re losing it. Because I moved several thousand miles away,[3](#three) to a city in which he once also lived, London, I didn’t get to see him nearly as much in recent years. That saddens me, but the notes continued. The last thing we spoke about was — perfectly — debating the merits of different newfangled blogging platforms. Rest now, in peace, my friend. The true natural born blogger. --- 1 I can't begin to tell you how [annoyed/upset](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/26382371363?ref=spyglass.org) I was back in 2010 when [he scooped me](https://om.co/gigaom/burbn-changes-focus-to-instagram-photo-app/?ref=spyglass.org) in [unveiling Instagram to the world](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/20/instagram/?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 2 In looking back, I was taken by just how many posts [I had written over the years](https://500ish.com/the-age-of-abundance-9bc365913cba?ref=spyglass.org) that were [spurred by Om's posts](https://om.co/2017/12/23/has-music-lost-that-loving-feeling/?ref=spyglass.org). It's undoubtedly because he had such a wide variety of thoughts and opinions. He did not fit, nor stick, into one box as many writers – perhaps especially in tech – tend to do. [↩](#) 3 One of my favorite posts of Om's that still sticks in my head was about [losing the sense of "home" in San Francisco](https://om.co/2020/08/21/home-alone/?ref=spyglass.org) during the pandemic with the world on fire, literally and figuratively. Per above, it drove me to [riff on it a bit myself](https://500ish.com/home-has-moved-away-from-us-74b7ba532cfb?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) ### The Market Shifts Apple URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-price-changes/ Last updated: 2026-06-25T15:49:53.000Z Just how big of a deal are [these price increases](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-raises-prices-on-macs-ipads-by-200-or-more-on-some-models-a7463f99?ref=spyglass.org) for Apple? Well, just look at their strategy for announcing them. While Tim Cook and team have been hinting for months that the unprecedented situation with memory chip demand was likely to impact their margins, as time went on and it was clear the situation was not resolving itself, those whispers started to shift towards actual price increases. While others had taken such action already, others don't operate like Apple, where the pricing simplicity and consistency has long been a point of pride. While prices have evolved over time, if anything, Apple's products are now *cheaper*, relatively speaking, than they've ever been. This is sort of a "narrative violation" when it comes to Apple – long seen to many as the sort of unnecessarily expensive option with big margins. But often left unsaid about Apple's margins is that just as big of a factor in them [being nice and fat](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X18RADltRVQ&ref=spyglass.org) was the command Apple had over their manufacturing capabilities and the sway over their component suppliers. Even as inflation ravaged economies around the world, Apple was able to hold prices fairly firm. But this situation is clearly quite different. [Last week](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%20%E2%80%9CUnfortunately%2C%20price%20increases%20are%20unavoidable.%22), Apple had obviously seen enough to know it wasn't going to ease any time soon.[1](#one) [Tim Cook gave an interview to Rolfe Winkler at *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-price-increases-memory-supply-199845b1?ref=spyglass.org) to tell the market that price increases were coming. There was a question as to just how soon – could Apple hold out until the iPhone 18 event in September, a more "natural" time to shift prices? The answer, of course, was "no." A week after that interview, the increases are here. But even this execution is interesting in that Apple actually [didn't](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2070128458332619214?ref=spyglass.org) increase the all-important iPhone prices. Yet. And that last bit is the key, as such increases for Apple's top-selling device are *clearly* coming as well. But Apple didn't want to shock the system all at once. Today's increases, in a way, are also a path to guide towards the inevitable iPhone price increases coming in September – assuming Apple can hold out that long! Wall Street doesn't seem to be appreciating the nuance here, with Apple's stock currently dropping around 5% in trading – pushing it back below Google and risking falling below the $4T market cap mark. But Apple is clearly worried about the bigger picture here. The iPhone isn't just a part of their product lineup, it's the device that dominates it, both in terms of volume and revenue. While Services has been [slowly chipping away at the lead](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/), the iPhone is still the product that consistently brings in over half of Apple's revenue each quarter. Even with all the product diversification over the years, it's still very much [as goes the iPhone, so goes Apple](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/). And so if and when Apple has to raise the price of that device, it's going to have an impact on the business, obviously. And sadly for Apple, it's unlikely to be the [Veblen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen%5Fgood?ref=spyglass.org) variety – where higher prices lead to more sales. Instead, higher prices are going to lead people to push out would-be purchases. And that is going to hurt Apple's quarterly earnings, obviously. So the move to increase prices nearly across the board today – from the HomePod to the MacBook Pro to [even the sad selling Vision Pro](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2070133935493849096?ref=spyglass.org) – is yet another signal of what's to come. That way, when John Ternus takes the stage in early September – [in his first event as Apple's CEO](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) – when he announces the iPhone 18 models with a new, higher starting price, the market is fully braced for it. Apple will have guided towards the change, *twice*. In a way, it's probably a good thing that Apple is said to be splitting the iPhones 18 unveiling [into two timetables going forward](https://spyglass.org/apples-first-look-fall-secondary-spring/). The 'Pro' models are set to be unveiled this Fall, with the 'regular' models due in the Spring. Given Apple's clear reluctance to raise prices, they probably didn't make this change on purpose, but it could end up a bit lucky because the would-be 'Pro' buyers are naturally going to be less price-sensitive than the 'regular' model buyers. And by the time those devices come next Spring, they'll effectively have had *three* warnings of pricing changes. That's not going to make the new iPhone Ultra/Fold price any easier to swallow – could the [thought-to-be $1,999 starting price](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) now look more like $2,499?! – but it's something. Another interesting wrinkle to watch for here: if this price change telegraphing actually *pulls forward* iPhone sales this quarter leading up to the new iPhone launch. Another way to look at what Apple is saying in not raising the iPhone price now is: get your orders in now if you want to lock in the current price. Normally, this would be the worst time to buy the current generation of iPhone models, with new ones so close, but now it might actually be the best time – especially if you're in the market for the 'regular' models or the iPhone Air, again, both of which are not expected until the Spring. This could lead to a weird situation where Apple's numbers actually *jump* this quarter to get ahead of the price changes. Regardless, this is an unprecedented time for Apple – certainly the modern Apple. Yes, that's true for many companies given the chip shortages, but as the most important consumer device company, it's especially true for Apple. And it's yet another sign of the shifting landscape in which they operate. For years, Apple has been able to dominate and dictate to their suppliers thanks to their scale. But the Asian operations which Tim Cook so famously set up, have been upended, like most everything else, by AI. From TSMC on down, Apple is no longer the customer dictating terms for the entire industry, it's now the company which has taken over the mantle as the most valuable one in the world: [NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/). And so it leads to situations like this one as relayed by Winkler in [his story on the price hikes today for *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-raises-prices-on-macs-ipads-by-200-or-more-on-some-models-a7463f99?ref=spyglass.org): > In an interview Wednesday night, Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana said the company couldn’t make investments during the memory market’s last downturn, when Micron’s gross profits went negative, in part because certain customers took advantage to pay rock-bottom prices. > > “We told a couple of the customers who were being very aggressive with pricing at that time that this is not constructive,” he said, without naming Apple, adding that low prices discouraged capital investments. “A lot of the industry investments got shut down in 2023 because of really poor pricing and really poor margins.” Again, he didn't explicitly call out Apple there, but come on. Apple is widely known to be a major Micron customer. And the company was obviously taking advantage of the last contracts they negotiated to hold prices steady as market prices surged. Micron clearly didn't like that situation too much! But whereas previously they may have had to grin and bear it given Apple's position and importance in the industry, there's a new world order now, in terms of who orders for the world. Perhaps Apple would have been better positioned had they taken the AI wave more seriously to start. But again, they're hardly alone here. The only companies in great positions here right now are the memory chip makers. If the "[Tim Cook Doctrine](https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/why-the-tim-cook-doctrine-is-preventing-apple-from-winning-at-ai/91214479?ref=spyglass.org)" had guided them in that direction, Apple would certainly be a $5T company now. But that's easy to say in hindsight – then again, [Samsung is right there](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Samsung%27s%20Bonus%20Situation)! And NVIDIA is right there, first in line, [not Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/). Apple is used to shifting markets. To bending others to their will. Now Apple is the one being bent. Being forced to shift strategy. It must be uncomfortable. --- 1 And the worst news on that front is buried in today's *WSJ* piece: Micron now thinks the pressure on memory chip supply will last throughout not just 2026, but *all of 2027 too*... [↩](#) ### Inklings #022 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-openai-movie-meta-glasses-microsofts-ai-narrative-pivot-google-falling-behind-in-ai-again/ Last updated: 2026-06-23T17:11:58.000Z Why did Amazon walk from their OpenAI movie? It doesn't seem too hard to figure out. Last I checked, $50B is bigger than $50M. And that, mixed with the notion that the film may not just be anti-OpenAI, but anti-AI in general and, well... [Amazon MeddlesThoughts on Amazon MGM bailing on their OpenAI movie…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-1944aa28-4000-468d-bdc4-fc0fe78dd783.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-21--2026--08_59_47-PM-15ebb571-66bd-4200-a5b9-d0a0c8809861.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-kills-openai-movie/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **😎** [**The 'Meta Glasses'**](https://www.wired.com/story/meta-new-smart-glasses-are-cheaper-colorful-and-meta-branded/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I think their strategy is smart here. Meta started with a known/proven brand and style in Ray-Ban (and later Oakley) and are now branching out on their own (still with the help of EssilorLuxottica – in which Meta is now a large shareholder, remember). And they don't have Meta's dumb, [droopy](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1453790738928463872?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) logo front-and-center (which must have been tempting given that the logo looks like goggles), but rather hidden on the back of the stems. And the glasses look... good? Pretty standard stuff. But one suspects it's easy to get this wrong given that they're front-and-center on your face. The most important aspect, of course, is what it means for the price: $299 – a full $80 cheaper than the latest Ray-Ban branded variety. It's a solid price point and a further poke in the eye of their old rival Snap, as this makes their um, $2,195, price point for Specs seem [all the more untenable](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/). Yes, they're different – one is pretty full-on AR while the other are just glasses with AI – but my point would be that we're not ready for the AR variety yet anyway so... releasing the Specs at that price point just looks like a sort of silly move to many, including Wall Street. Anyway, the "Kylie" variety of Meta's glasses are obviously not meant for me, but I'm genuinely curious how well (or not) those sell in the market. Meta *loves* to try to get celebrities involved in their products (I mean, so do all the tech companies with marketing teams) but it [doesn't ever seem to work](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/) as [they'd hope](https://spyglass.org/judi-dench-ai/). But hey, they have a gemstone here. And yes, her AI voice. Will their ['Muse Spark' models](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) be fully up to the task? Can Meta fully [escape](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) their brand baggage? The "[glasshole](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/)" issue? [Your move, Apple](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/). **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/meta-new-smart-glasses-are-cheaper-colorful-and-meta-branded/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ☁️[**Microsoft’s Hybrid AI Dreams**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsofts-satya-nadella-we-cant-let-ai-giants-eat-the-economy-b9d33b9f?ref=spyglass.org) **—** The strangest thing about Satya Nadella’s [ongoing blitz](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20Satya%20Nadella%27s%20%22Frontier%20Ecosystem%22) against Big AI — well, beyond the fact that Microsoft is deeply partnered with all the players, and yes, owns 25%+ of OpenAI — is that they *just* started [going full bore](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) at [creating their own](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) frontier models. Is the goal not to get the most amount of people to use those? Or perhaps it’s an acknowledgement that [no matter the work](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) they may do at the frontier, they’re not going to be able to catch Anthropic and OpenAI at this point. Or perhaps it’s simply Nadella reading the room and tea leaves, thinking that [the ‘Fable’ situation](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) is another [DeepSeek moment](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/) where it causes everyone to rethink how they’re working on AI. An acknowledgment that Anthropic’s [tussle(s)](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) with the US government is causing [many to think](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) that they shouldn’t be all-in with one AI provider — even if it’s one of the Big Tech players. That instead, they should seek a diversified provider of models, like, say, Microsoft. Which, by the way, is happy to offer you DeepSeek models! Why? [Costs](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/). The other elephant in this room Nadella may be reading. Even if Microsoft can catch up on the frontier, their customers may not want to *pay* for such compute — certainly not for everything. Here, open source models are their friend, even if they may have been distilled from their partner OpenAI… **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsofts-satya-nadella-we-cant-let-ai-giants-eat-the-economy-b9d33b9f?ref=spyglass.org)🔒**\]** 📉[**Is Google Behind In AI? Again?!**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/alphabet-shares-drop-after-second-ai-star-departs-for-a-rival?ref=spyglass.org) — Speaking of, at least Wall Street seems concerned that the departure of both Noam Shazeer — [not even two years](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/) after bringing him back on board *for $2.7B*, now bolting [for rival OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Poaches%20Google%27s%20Hackquired%20Talent) — and now their Nobel Prize-winning DeepMinder John Jumper — who is John jumping to rival Anthropic — signals a problem within Google’s AI ranks. Again. That mixed with the fact that their latest Gemini flagship models weren't ready for [their I/O conference](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/), and *still* have yet to be released, and whispers that when they are, they still won’t be Mythos/Fable [caliber](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/)… It’s obviously hard to know exactly what is [going on here](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Admits%20Being%20Behind%20in%20AI%20Coding) until those models are out in the world but there are definitely some Meta Llama vibes out there at the moment. But if Nadella’s read per the above note is correct, how much should Google even care about being at the absolute bleeding edge? It’s optically a black eye, obviously when a company with [basically infinite resources](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) can’t compete with the startups. But those have their own advantages too in [being more nimble](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-conference-season/) and not being bogged down [by the baggage](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) of billions of users across a wide range of products in a wide range of industries. But if costs start to matter more and there’s a push for more hybrid AI systems… Google should be fine. [Just like Apple](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/), which of course fumbled the AI bag far worse! But it is a weird vibe! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/alphabet-shares-drop-after-second-ai-star-departs-for-a-rival?ref=spyglass.org)🔒**\]** 👁️[**OpenAI Takes Their Ads Pitch to the Ads Pitchers**](https://www.ft.com/content/9717a042-fd09-4d08-972d-29b68f7985a4?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) — Increasingly, this does [feel](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%27s%20Path%20to%20%24100B%20in%20Ad%20Revenue) like the single-most important thing for OpenAI at the moment. If they can jumpstart their ads business, they suddenly have a narrative that Anthropic can't — [because they won’t](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/187098973/anthropics-anti-ads-ai-ads?ref=spyglass.org) — match. It won’t totally negate [the fact that](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) Anthropic’s top and bottom lines now look more attractive, but given ChatGPT’s scale, it can be compelling. If the ads work, that is. And the jury is [still very much out there](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/). I’m [still of the mind](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20OpenAI%20Going%20After%20Mom%20%26%20Pop%20Advertisers) that they need to come up with new formats that are AI-native as CPC and CPM models don’t seem to make much [sense](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/#:~:text=%F0%9F%AA%8E%20Cost%2DPer%2DClick%20AI%20Ads), at least with the way the chatbots are currently built and serve up information. For queries with commerce intent, you can probably see it — and OpenAI says 1/5th of the queries they see are in that vein? — but shopping has already had fits and starts for them. The fact that Google is already working on this too is actually good news for OpenAI. If anyone can figure it out… But the bigger concern may remain that OpenAI [clearly](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) wants to be in the business that Anthropic is currently dominating and has [diverted](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) most resources in [that direction](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/). Can they really do both here? **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/9717a042-fd09-4d08-972d-29b68f7985a4?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org)🔒**\]** 🕹️[**The Chip War Could Kill Consoles**](https://www.theverge.com/entertainment/953615/steam-machine-price-game-consoles-future-ps6-project-helix?ref=spyglass.org) **—** Valves new Steam Machine [sounds (and looks)](https://www.theverge.com/games/952765/steam-machine-review?ref=spyglass.org) interesting. As with the Steam Deck, it feels like they’re one step ahead of Microsoft. But the problem, of course, is price. It *starts* at $1,049 and goes all the way up to just under $1,500\. The latter is *double* the highest end Xbox price. It’s *triple* the Switch 2 price. Yes, it’s a PC too, but if you wanted to use it as a PC, you should… buy a PC? The whole value proposition is the ease of use and access to gaming in the living room, but it’s not exactly plug-and-play — [at least not yet](https://www.theverge.com/games/952765/steam-machine-review?ref=spyglass.org). And it’s apparently no more powerful than a PS5 — which is [over 5 years old](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation%5F5?ref=spyglass.org) (that itself is sort of wild). Anyway, it points to the bigger issue in the console market itself which is under siege due to the component prices. That basically makes any PS6 or ‘Project Helix’ Xbox a non-starter anytime soon. [Xbox may really want](https://spyglass.org/the-resuscitation-of-xbox/) to get back to being Xbox, but it’s [going to be tough](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) if the next Xbox is $1,000 or more. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/entertainment/953615/steam-machine-price-game-consoles-future-ps6-project-helix?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Quote... > "You can’t say, hey, all white-collar jobs are gone and this could even be a weapon and we will use all the power to build data centers." – **Satya Nadella**, [making a simple point](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsofts-satya-nadella-we-cant-let-ai-giants-eat-the-economy-b9d33b9f?ref=spyglass.org) about the rhetoric coming out of many of the AI companies. It's obviously exaggerated to make the point, but it's also not wrong! No one should be [confused](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) why AI has [a bad reputation](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/), certainly in the US. It may be more than a messaging problem, *but it's* [*also a messaging problem*](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/)! [And yes](https://www.ft.com/content/16ace46c-aeac-40c9-8598-3c01fa4481cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org), such talking points are [coming back to bite](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) in other ways too. [Shocking, I know](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/). ### I Spy... [Not bad](https://about.fb.com/news/2026/06/meta-essilorluxottica-partner-launch-meta-glasses/?ref=spyglass.org). Nothing groundbreaking design-wise. And they're certainly [not Specs](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/)... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-23-at-6.03.27---PM.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-23-at-6.04.35---PM.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-23-at-6.04.50---PM.png) ### I Also Quote... > "I think you need to take anything they do seriously. They’re good at hardware, they’re good at design. There’s a number of places where we won’t necessarily be able to build the same quality consumer experience when paired with the phone, and so I think they’re taking advantage of that." – **Alex Himel**, Meta's head of wearables, [when asked](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-23/meta-launches-299-in-house-adventure-fury-kylie-jenner-starfire-glasses?ref=spyglass.org) about the prospects of Apple [entering](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) the smartglasses space. Kudos for answering the question, but he was also clearly coached to bring up the connection talking point. I suspect we're going to hear this come up from Meta more and more over the next year – especially once Apple [*actually* enters](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) the space. There will obviously be a push to deem the pairing with the iPhone as anticompetitive. The EU will probably launch a probe just based off of the rumors of such a product. Technical connection capabilities aside, the dominance of the iPhone clearly [remains a problem for Meta](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). And will remain one for some time, [one imagines](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/)... 🎶 Listening to [****"Unbroken Horses" by John Mark McMillan**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8s%5FdBAp9ciQ&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a ****Guinness** ☘️ Sent from ****Dublin, Ireland** ### Amazon Meddles URL: https://spyglass.org/amazon-kills-openai-movie/ Last updated: 2026-07-01T11:27:19.000Z Don't meddle. It's one of those oft-stated golden rules of Hollywood that has been broken left and right by the movie studios basically since the dawn of the industry. Apple even more or less has an entire show built around the premise in [*The Studio*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FStudio%5F%28TV%5Fseries%29?ref=spyglass.org). Still, it's considered a cardinal sin for a studio – and certainly any corporate parent – to mess with the creative process of making a movie. And it has come up more often in recent years with all the change happening in Hollywood and all the studios changing hands [once again](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) – and especially with Big Tech giants now [fully wading into](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) the Hollywood waters. That's sort of the [undercurrent](https://spyglass.org/inklings-hackquisitions-revisited-amazon-kills-the-openai-movie-netflix-is-tv-snap-spins-off-ai-trump-mocks-his-big-tech-sycophants/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%A5%20Amazon%20Chickens%20Out%20of%20OpenAI%20Movie) of the news that [Amazon MGM is ditching](https://puck.news/amazon-is-dumping-its-sam-altman-movie/?ref=spyglass.org) *Artificial*, Luca Guadagnino's movie about OpenAI. No one is coming out and directly saying it, but it's pretty clear what's going on here: Amazon is meddling. Now, to be clear and fair, they're not messing with the actual creative process. The movie is basically done, to the point where it is being screen for test audiences (we'll come back to that). But what Amazon is doing is arguably worse: they're meddling with the *distribution* of the film. It's not exactly muzzling Guadagnino – at least not yet, but if they can't find a new home for *Artificial*, that's effectively what they're threatening. You have to believe they'll find a home, because it's a movie about OpenAI! Even if you don't buy that there will be general interest in the overall AI narrative, and even if you don't think the always-in-the-news nature of OpenAI will help this movie garner buzz, the fact that there's a pretty direct, successful analog in David Fincher's 2010 film *The Social Network*, which won three Oscars and was nominated for Best Picture while earning over $200M at the box office, seems like a good signal.[1](#one) It's a movie that was so successful, that it's getting [a sequel in this year's](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/) *The Social Reckoning*. But the premise of *Artificial* feels far more *Social Network* in nature. So yeah, someone is going to pick it up. If nothing else, this new controversy around Amazon dropping it can probably only help its prospects! If it wasn't a must-see movie before, it is now! That's part of why it's wild that Amazon is doing this. But the bigger part is the fact that they greenlit and saw the entire product through to completion. Various executives at Amazon MGM read the various iterations of the screenplay. They hired the acclaimed director to helm it. They watched cuts of the movie as it progressed. They were all-in, until suddenly they weren't. So what happened? Well, again, they're not directly saying it, but it's pretty clearly related to Amazon's relationship with OpenAI. When the movie was greenlit and being made, Amazon had only a loose relationship with the startup for some cloud dealings. Instead, they were [the big backer of Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/), OpenAI's chief rival, which of course is comprised of a disgruntled team which spun-out of OpenAI. I won't go so far as to say that a sort of anti-OpenAI movie was set up on purpose to help Anthropic, but it couldn't have hurt [Amazon's big AI bet](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/)! But then OpenAI [changed their arrangement](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) with Microsoft. And that suddenly opened them and their models for business beyond Azure. So it was only natural that the biggest cloud company, Amazon, would seek to sell the models from the biggest AI company, OpenAI. Just how interested was Amazon in getting OpenAI sold through AWS? [*Well, how does $50B sound*?](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-could-invest-50b-into-openai?ref=spyglass.org) As in the amount Amazon has promised to invest in OpenAI through a series of equity investments [tied to their partnership](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/). Of course that partnership goes both ways. And so if, say, OpenAI doesn't like something about the way Amazon is treating them and thinks it's not helping said partnership well... What I'm saying is that a $50M movie that seemingly casts OpenAI and certainly CEO Sam Altman in a bad light is probably a pretty easy thing for Amazon to walk away from rather than their $50B deal with said company. Is it possible that the movie is just bad? I suppose that's possible, but even if that's true and Amazon wants to distance themselves from a stinker, the comments being made here and the reports on the matter don't suggest that. Also, it's Hollywood. A ton of bad movies – truly bad movies – are made every year. They still get released. If Amazon didn't think *Artificial* was good but already bankrolled the entire thing through to completion, they could have put it on Prime Video after perhaps a limited theatrical run to keep Guadagnino happy (more on this general strategy in a minute). Even if it's bad, given the hot topic and talent, it undoubtedly would have done well on streaming. Amazon uses their streaming service to [salvage bad movies](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/) all the time. It just doesn't make sense for Amazon to walk away from this movie if it's simply and subjectively "bad". I don't buy that. Again, just look to the statements on the matter: > "We have the utmost respect and admiration for Luca Guadagnino as an award-winning filmmaker—not to mention a longstanding relationship that we hope to continue. We believe that '*Artificial'* will be better served if it were released by a different studio and are working closely with the filmmaking team to find the film a new home." That doesn't read like a studio trying to ditch a bad movie. That sounds like a studio trying to not directly come out and say that they need to not be associated with the project now for other reasons. "We believe" and "better served" are the two key phrases. It's as if to say, "it's not you, it's us." Added to all of this is what's referenced here: Amazon MGM and Guadagnino have worked together in the past on his films *After the Hunt* and *Challengers*. They're not just burning a relationship, they're potentially burning a long-standing partnership. Here's Guadagnino's statement on the matter: > ... Yeah, he's pissed. Obviously. "Shocked" says at least one source [to Nicole Sperling at *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/business/media/amazon-openai-artificial-movie-sam-altman.html?ref=spyglass.org). But should he have been "shocked"? Perhaps not if he's been following the entire OpenAI saga, which presumably he has given, you know, the film. Maybe he thought his relationship with Amazon MGM was strong enough to counter any risk here. Or maybe he simply thought Amazon wouldn't dare. After all, again, the movie was done and they were a part of it every step of the way. But perhaps that aforementioned screening played a role. Here's [Ellise Shafer and Alex Ritman for *Variety*](https://variety.com/2026/film/global/luca-guadagnino-sam-altman-movie-artificial-dropped-amazon-1236785830/?ref=spyglass.org): > *Variety* understands that, prior to being dropped by Amazon, “Artificial” already had several test screenings, which went down very positively, and screened for other studios on Thursday. According to an insider who has seen the movie, the characters of Altman and Musk are the least sympathetic and the ones audiences would “like the least.” It’s also understood that Amazon had seen all the early iterations of the script, before Guadagnino boarded the project. First and foremost, "very positively" would seem to negate the notion of the movie being bad. Yes, it's subjective. And yes, people who get to see movies early tend to like them more than they might normally, but test screenings are both and art and a science. The studio would be able to gauge if a movie is a disaster-in-the-making and saying the screenings went down not just positively, but "very positively" suggests the quality is not the issue. But the substance may be... at least for Amazon. Again, [who is surprised by this](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) reaction? Given all the endless reporting – [and now legal testimony](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/) – on the matter, was Amazon expecting a movie in which *anyone*, let alone Altman, came out looking good? And then there's Elon Musk. Would Amazon sweat pissing off the world's first trillionaire? Given that he's the chief rival of their founder, probably not. Then again, given that he controls a certain social network, perhaps there was some level of concern. But certainly not to the level of OpenAI. Again, now a massive strategic partner and investor. Also, a friendship between those two founders probably didn't help this situation: > It’s known that Altman and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos have a relationship and Altman even attended Bezos’ wedding in Italy last year. One has to imagine that subsequent reporting will pull out a bit more here. Was Altman concerned that such a movie is going to lead to more threats against him or his family? That certainly seems more legitimate than just the ongoing concern about [the backlash against AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) more generally – but it's impossible to know without actually seeing the movie if there's any merit to that, I'm just trying to come up with some sort of scenario that could quickly change Amazon's mind. Amazon is clearly positioning this as a Mike Hopkins decision. Here's [Matt Belloni, who originally scooped this shitshow for *Puck*](https://puck.news/amazon-is-dumping-its-sam-altman-movie/?ref=spyglass.org): > One source familiar with Amazon’s rationale told me the tone of *Artificial* shifted markedly darker in the final product from the script by **Simon Rich** (*SNL*, Pixar) and how the project was pitched and developed by Guadagnino, who previously directed *Challengers* and *After the Hunt* for Amazon. Hopkins watched a cut of the film and decided to pull the plug. Sure, the Amazon MGM/Prime Video studio boss may have technically made the call. But he also doesn't live in a vacuum. And he certainly doesn't work in one! He's clearly making that decision recognizing all of the above. And so it's really a call of whom he wants to piss off: OpenAI/Sam Altman or Luca Guadagnino and all the talent involved with *Artificial*? Again, one is a $50B deal, the other is a $50M deal. We're talking three orders of magnitude here. It's just math. Of course, it isn't just math. Just ask Apple. One can't help but be reminded of their call a couple years back to [kill the wide theatrical release of *Wolfs*](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-wolfs/). While that had nothing to do with the subject matter of the movie – Apple seemingly wasn't worried about the hit man lobby – it did still have to do with the math. As in, Apple seemed pretty certain there was no way the movie [would work at the box office](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/). At least not to the extent it would need to in order to at least look like a hit – a feat they [did manage to pull off](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) with their barely (if at all) profitable, but feted *F1*. But with *Wolfs*, the problem was twofold: [George Clooney and Brad Pitt](https://spyglass.org/clooney-pitt-wolfs-apple-theaters/). As in, the stars. Apple risked pissing them off by pulling the plug but felt like they had to do so anyway – perhaps part of the pitch was that it wouldn't look good for any of them if/when the movie flopped at the box office. [They made the right call](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) but arguably a dumb decision given the reputation risk associated with killing *Wolfs* – again, a movie that was done and on the verge of release. And sure enough, shortly after the decision was made, the director, Jon Watts, [let his true feelings be known](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/). He felt betrayed because *he was betrayed*. But there, at least Apple still released the movie – just on a much smaller theatrical scale and with a wide push to Apple TV.[2](#two) With *Artificial*, Amazon just wants it gone. And beyond the Guadagnino situation, there are massive stars in Andrew Garfield and the clearly on-the-rise Monica Barbaro. How are they going to feel about taking their next movie to Amazon MGM? Movies switching studios isn't completely unprecedented, but it is pretty unprecedented for this particular reason. And it undercuts the credibility of the entire studio at a time when they perhaps need it most as they gear up to start production on [the first James Bond film fully under their purview](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/). The director they landed for that endeavor, [Denis Villeneuve](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/), is well known for his strong stances on cinema and artist integrity. So yeah, *I can't wait to hear what he thinks about this*! Maybe he should poke the bear and make Blue Origin the new [SPECTRE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPECTRE?ref=spyglass.org)? Or maybe Luca Guadagnino should have just sucked it up and done what Amazon really wanted, which is to make a movie in the style of the "documentary" of Melania Trump. The fact that this is the other narrative floating in the background here makes this all extra wild. The last time [Amazon was in the news in a major way for a film](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-invests-75m-into-the-melania-documentary?ref=spyglass.org) was when they not only bought the *Melania* doc, but they [apparently](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/business/media/amazon-melania-trump-film-critics.html?ref=spyglass.org) paid $75M for it – way, way, *way* above market, with potentially $28M going straight to Mrs. Trump herself. Oh yes, and it was made by a director who was fully cancelled and ostracized in Hollywood. Somehow, Brett Ratner returned, [one might say](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsjwVu%5FihKU&ref=spyglass.org). But really, somehow none of that managed to derail that movie. *In fact, it got a White House premiere!* [Tim Cook came](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/)! Bezos is [proud of it](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22The%20Melania%20thing). What a fucking farce. Look, at the end of the day money always talks and more often than not wins. So perhaps none of this has actual long term ramifications for Amazon. But if *Artificial* turns out to be good and perhaps wins awards if not the box office,[3](#three) this whole narrative will keep coming up. That Amazon meddled. --- **Update June 22, 2026**: A bit more unfolding of this narrative... [Netflix, A24 and Focus Pass on Luca Guadagnino’s ‘Artificial’ as Mubi Circles (EXCLUSIVE)After Amazon MGM dropped Luca Guadagnino’s OpenAI drama, a string of buyers have passed on it but Mubi is in pursuit, with Neon possibly circling.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-1f538238-ae28-4a62-966f-1f708bab53d2.png)VarietyElsa Keslassy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/luca-sam-7a1c1e77-d81c-4a27-8206-33ce3a95691a.jpg)](https://variety.com/2026/film/global/luca-guadagnino-artificial-sam-altman-netflix-a24-mubi-1236786623/?ref=spyglass.org) No home yet for *Artificial*, but it sounds like things are getting close with Mubi, but perhaps more interesting is all those that passed: > Several of the buyers who screened [Luca Guadagnino](https://variety.com/t/luca-guadagnino/?ref=spyglass.org)’s hotly anticipated “Artificial” in the days after Amazon MGM Studios abruptly dropped the film have passed on acquiring it, sources tell *Variety*. > > Focus Features, Warner Bros.’ Clockwork, A24 and Netflix have all stepped away, according to those sources. But the [Sam Altman](https://variety.com/t/sam-altman/?ref=spyglass.org) drama, which is nearly completed, isn’t without suitors. *Variety* has learned that [Mubi](https://variety.com/t/mubi/?ref=spyglass.org) is pursuing the film, with Neon also possibly circling. Each of those smaller houses (and Netflix) would seem to be right in the wheelhouse for this type of movie. So what's going on? Maybe it is just bad? I continue to believe it has little to do with quality and more to do with a fear of pissing off the powers-that-be in AI. In particular, if it leads to lawsuits: > The picture is rumored to be portraying Altman as a pathological liar and Musk (Ike Barinholtz) as highly antipathetic. This is a company and industry [in the midst](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/) of [a perception crisis](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/). They're going to push back against any negative portrayal and it's sounding a lot like this one may cast them all in an *extremely* negative light. In that way, one can't help but be reminded of another film that had a hard time getting distribution a couple years back. But yes, was good. And yes, ended up as an awards contender. The topic of [the film](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FApprentice%5F%282024%5Ffilm%29?ref=spyglass.org) though was highly controversial. And the subject powerful. Not to mention litigious... **One more thing:** > Even for independent companies with AI ambitions or big tech entanglements, there could be reasons for being cautious around the film. A24, for instance, is backed by Josh Kushner’s Thrive Capital, which holds a seat on the board and ranks among OpenAI’s largest and most high-profile backers. Yeah, that would seem to be an easy no-go. --- **Update June 30, 2026**: Sure enough, it looks like Neon, best known for winning the Best Picture Oscar with *Parasite* in 2020 and *Anora* last year, has [won the rights to distribute the film](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/business/media/openai-movie-artificial-neon-amazon.html?ref=spyglass.org). That seems like a perfect outcome for *Artificial*. --- 1 The fact that both feature Andrew Garfield helps too! [↩](#) 2 A more interesting parallel may be with *Savant* the Jessica Chastain-led Apple TV show that [Apple pulled shortly before release](https://spyglass.org/the-savant-apple/) – and right after the murder of Charlie Kirk. [↩](#) 3 The fact that the screenings all seem to suggest the movie is good adds yet another wild layer to this. That doesn't mean it will be a hit, of course. But you could certainly see it as the type of movie that [taps into the zeitgeist at the right time](https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/). Much like *The Social Network* did once upon a time! [↩](#) ### Inklings #021 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-hackquisitions-revisited-amazon-kills-the-openai-movie-netflix-is-tv-snap-spins-off-ai-trump-mocks-his-big-tech-sycophants/ Last updated: 2026-06-19T18:44:30.000Z For all the talk about how "[hackquisitions](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" were circumventing the traditional guardrails around M&A, we seem to have overlooked something vital: for such deals to work, they have to actually, you know, work. And the early returns suggest that perhaps they're not really working out... [About Those “Hackquisitions”...The first crop certainly haven’t panned out…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-09b5c74f-f346-47cb-9da7-9f110a413853.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-19--2026--04_15_50-PM-affb284f-74b2-4b0a-94af-3796fe4e1558.png)](https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/) 👋 Back on the road next week... ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🐥** [**Amazon Chickens Out of OpenAI Movie**](https://puck.news/amazon-is-dumping-its-sam-altman-movie/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I was [*just* wondering](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/) what was going on with *Artificial* given that filming wrapped months ago, but we hadn't yet seen a trailer. Well, now we may know why... The movie is suddenly homeless. Regardless of how anti-OpenAI and/or anti-Altman this movie is, it's obviously an awful look for Amazon to kill it. After it's done, no less. The message from all of the tech players playing in Hollywood has always been that it's about the art and that they [wouldn't meddle](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) in artistic decisions. I mean, I guess they're not here, technically, just opting not to *distribute* the movie after promising to do so. That's arguably worse. And it's *especially* worse [seeing as](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22The%20Melania%20thing) it's the same company that [paid $75M](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-invests-75m-into-the-melania-documentary?ref=spyglass.org) to make a documentary [about the President's wife](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/). To keep layering on: the *Melania* movie featured a disgraced director exiled from Hollywood, while *Artificial* has one of the hottest directors in the world. If all of that gave Amazon pause, it certainly didn't stop them. Once they saw a cut, they clearly thought it was better to cut ties here, rather than risk angering their AI partner in which they have [a massive equity stake](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-could-invest-50b-into-openai?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, [those](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/) [deals](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) came about after the movie was [greenlit](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/165120734/luca-guadagnino-to-direct-openai-movie-artificial?ref=spyglass.org), but my god, how shortsighted. *Artificial* will obviously find a new home – Amazon better hope the movie isn't any good. But I'm not sure how much it will matter in Hollywood with the Scarlet Letter of meddling now firmly affixed to Amazon's studios. What does, say, [Denis Villeneuve think of this](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/), one wonders... **\[**[**Puck**](https://puck.news/amazon-is-dumping-its-sam-altman-movie/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📺** [**Netflix as the New Cable TV Front-End**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/netflix-france-tf1-content-partnership-aggregation-strategy-1236624099/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Their deal with France's TF1 (which I first wrote about a year ago when it was announced, noting that [Netflix really is now TV](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/)) makes Netflix the hub for both services, blending recommendations, 'Continue Watching', etc. This is a far deeper integration than what Amazon and others are doing with their 'Channels' strategy and clearly seems to be the future of streaming in many countries (Amazon has [similar deals](https://bsky.app/profile/gewappnet.bsky.social/post/3lrv5g5axrs2p?ref=spyglass.org) in place around the world for Prime Video). And as YouTube TV [continues to eat](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) traditional cable's lunch, might we see other regional cable providers in the US hand over the keys to Netflix? Comcast, the largest, would presumably try to do it through Peacock? But Peacock remains a far smaller player. More interesting would be if YouTube tries to get into this game. There's probably too much conflict with YouTube TV, but it increasingly feels like Netflix and YouTube are [on a collision course](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) to be the main hub/UI of streaming. I mean, they already are in many ways, but with *others*' content – including perhaps Peacock and the like. This also takes Netflix deeper down the [live content rabbit hole](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/), of course – and [advertising too](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/), though it [sounds like](https://variety.com/2026/tv/global/netflix-tf1-streaming-broadcast-tie-up-france-1236785249/?ref=spyglass.org) those details are still in progress. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/netflix-france-tf1-content-partnership-aggregation-strategy-1236624099/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **👻** [**Snap Spins Off An AI Company**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/18/snap-spins-off-ai-video-team-into-new-company-dotmo-due-to-costs/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** This almost reads like a reverse-"[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" in a way. 'Dotmo' will take a team from and have a licensing agreement with Snap, in return, Snap will get a large equity stake in the stand-alone company. But they won't be investing at all – because this is about Snap saving money, after all – but Snap co-founder Bobby Murphy will be in a personal capacity. Spin-offs are nothing new, of course. But again, not investing but having a co-founder invest is an interesting hack. [As I wrote earlier this week](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/), it feels increasingly like Snap made the wrong bet on AR versus AI – yes, they were betting on both to some degree, but it was clearly the wrong mix. At the same time, now they don't have the capital or the mandate from Wall Street to invest in both going forward so... Dotmo will go it "alone". And presumably have no trouble raising more outside funding as an AI company. Perhaps at a large enough valuation, it can reverse-acquire Snap, [Elon-style](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/)? **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/18/snap-spins-off-ai-video-team-into-new-company-dotmo-due-to-costs/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🐆** [**Kissing the Leopard's Ass Before He Eats Your Face**](https://www.wired.com/story/trump-mocked-mark-zuckerberg-and-jeff-bezos-by-showing-off-fawning-texts/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** How shocking it must be for Zuckerberg and Bezos to learn that President Trump is mocking them behind their backs, showing off the private messages they send him to others to showcase them "kissing my ass". Ahead of the inauguration, as Zuck [embarrassingly](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) [scrambled](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-029/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Mark%20Zuckerberg%E2%80%99s,%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) to [showcase](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/) his new allegiance, [I asked](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-044-a-super-switch/#:~:text=Speaking%20of%2C%20it%27s,...%20%5BPuck%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), "What's the world record for kissing ass? We're likely to find out." Trump clearly agrees! And can't stop telling everyone all about it. [With Tim Cook too](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22When%20I%20got). Even more embarrassing for these guys: one of the people Trump likes to show these message too is Elon – his on-again/off-again [PaidPal](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/). "First-class groveling," was his quoted assessment as he must have laughed while Bezos tried to convince Trump to ditch SpaceX for Blue Origin for some contracts. That's the thing: given their business interests, [what choice](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) do these guys [have](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/) but to grovel? If they don't, they get [thrown into the doghouse](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/). They undoubtedly could be less overt, but Trump loves the performative nature of such things. Hence, Cook's [golden trinket](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/). And you could probably argue that this humiliation has paid off, quite literally! But the real price was dignity, which they'll have to live with [selling off](https://spyglass.org/washington-post-missing-spine/). Which will look [especially bad](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/) when all of them [inevitably](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=Tech%20starts%20to%20turn%20on%20Trump) start to turn on Trump again as he becomes a lame duck. **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/trump-mocked-mark-zuckerberg-and-jeff-bezos-by-showing-off-fawning-texts/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ### I Quote... > "When I told that story to George Lucas in 1977, when we were in Hawaii together getting ready for the release of *Star Wars: A New Hope*, he said, ‘I have something better than Bond. It’s called Indiana Smith,’ which is what it was called at the time. He told me the premise of the Indiana Jones series, and that’s how I got that job." – **Steven Spielberg**, [revealing how](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/steven-spielberg-rejected-direct-james-bond-movie-1236619950/?ref=spyglass.org) the Cubby Broccoli rejecting him on the notion of directing a *James Bond* film (twice) led to *Raiders of the Lost Ark*. I linked to this [last week too](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/#:~:text=Steven%20Spielberg%20asked,%5BTHR%5D), but the quotes are just amazing. 🎶 Listening to [****Fantastic Cat - So Glad You Made It**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7OMEesx2HE&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Stroud LOL Light Lager**](https://stroudbrewery.com/products/lol?srsltid=AfmBOor9U-BBe8qkmhXw43ALNNsHPCFhG6UVrOkSZFF3UcefsPJLbhdg&variant=44091313094880&ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### About Those "Hackquisitions"... URL: https://spyglass.org/failed-hackquisitions/ Last updated: 2026-06-19T20:44:13.000Z The [news](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/star-google-ai-researcher-shazeer-joins-openai?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) that Noam Shazeer is (once again) leaving Google seems like [a big deal](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Poaches%20Google%27s%20Hackquired%20Talent). The news that he's [joining OpenAI](https://x.com/NoamShazeer/status/2067400851438932297?ref=spyglass.org), which turned the transformer paper [he helped write](https://www.wired.com/story/eight-google-employees-invented-modern-ai-transformers-paper/?ref=spyglass.org) into a product that [he couldn't launch](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) (in his first stint) at Google [seems like](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/) an even bigger deal. Bigger still may be the fact that he had rejoined to help the Gemini product [take on ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/), which was [seemingly working](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/), at least to [some degree](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/). But actually, the biggest deal has to be [*the actual deal*](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/) that brought him back to Google. Because it wasn't even two years ago when Google paid $2.7B to bring Shazeer back. And like that – poof – [he's gone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psZXyooc-AI&ref=spyglass.org). To be fair, there were others on the Character.ai team that Google seemingly wanted too. The non-exclusive licensing rights for Character? Probably less so. If anything, that aspect of the deal has ranged from a [headache](https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/character-ai-minors-banned-user-reactio?ref=spyglass.org) to a [nightmare](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/08/google-character-ai-settlement-teen-suicide?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) But clearly it was a deal structure in such a way to get Shazeer back with an offer [he couldn't refuse](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/). And he didn't. Until he did. Again. That deal structure, of course, was one of the early "[hackquisitions](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" – a deal to bring on a company's key talent *without* acquiring the company itself. Because that clearly would have been messy from a regulatory perspective for any of Big Tech. If nothing else, such deals would be bogged down for months while they're scrutinized. A "hackquisition", by contrast, could be done almost instantly. Because they were structured to leave the actual company behind as a sort of hollowed-out husk. Not exactly a carcass because they weren't exactly dead but not fully alive either. [A place to pick up the phone](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-ftc/) if the government calls. And to collect licensing fees. And again, the deals were set up in ways so that those with power couldn't really say "no" – be it the founding team or investors. The employees left behind sometimes got screwed, but the "hackquiring" company often tried to do the right thing so as not to draw that eye and ire of Washington. As such deals kept happening, Washington obviously started to look at these deals anyway. But the pace at which Washington moves have allowed them to continue unabated. Of course, something else now runs the risk of ending such deals: the fact that they don't seem to be working out. Let's look back at some of the big ones. ### Microsoft/Inflection [The first such "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) clearly drew inspiration from the deal Microsoft *almost* did with OpenAI employees (from Sam Altman on down) during "The Blip". Such a deal, [had it happened](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/), would have looked pretty wild now given that OpenAI is valued at $852B. And, of course, constantly clashing with their benefactor. Anyway, as a result of Altman and OpenAI getting back to work, Microsoft turned their gaze elsewhere – to the AI startup co-founded by their board member Reid Hoffman. But that deal wasn't about bringing Hoffman on board beyond the board, it was seemingly all about bringing on Mustafa Suleyman, a co-founder of DeepMind who left after the Google acquisition and started Inflection with Hoffman, raising a ton of money (for the time) in the process. After failing to get any sort of early traction and undoubtedly needing to raise billions more to effectively compete, it was seemingly an easy call [when Microsoft came calling with $650M](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/). Again, not for the company, but for Suleyman and his team (and for the investors, which, yes, also included Hoffman). Fast-forward to today, just over two years later and Microsoft is [certainly more independent](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) in AI. But they're not necessarily in a better place, as the many re-orgs and re-brandings of Copilot have showcased. Meanwhile, [Suleyman himself was recently moved](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) from spearheading that product and team to focusing on foundation models instead. $650M is relatively small by today's AI standards, but it's not clear what Microsoft actually got out of it. The consumer version of Copilot [made to look like](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) Pi, Inflection's product,[ clearly hasn't worked](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/). And the team is now led by someone else so... ### Amazon/Adept A few months after the Inflection deal, that *other* Seattle-based tech company [tried their hand at a "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/). The deal for Adept was roughly half the size at $330M, but the idea was the same: get the co-founders on-board with Amazon's AI team. Most notably, David Luan was tasked with starting their "AGI Lab". We're not even two years removed from that deal and yet 4 of the 5 Adept co-founders have already left Amazon. That includes Luan, who had previously worked at both Google and OpenAI, and [left this Amazon past February](https://www.geekwire.com/2026/head-of-amazons-agi-lab-is-leaving-in-latest-exit-from-high-profile-adept-deal/?ref=spyglass.org). That team did launch one product, Nova Act, but it's not clear how useful that actually is to Amazon. ### Amazon/Covariant This deal, [just a couple months later](https://www.geekwire.com/2024/amazon-hires-covariant-founders-inks-licensing-deal-with-robotics-ai-startup-in-latest-reverse-acquihire-deal/?ref=spyglass.org), was more under-the-radar than Adept, but may have actually been slightly larger. It has also been an even bigger headache, with a whistleblower saying that the left-behind Covariant company is just [a "zombie" shadow company](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/01/18/amazon-antitrust-ai-whistleblower/?ref=spyglass.org). Still, Amazon may have gotten [some robots](https://www.hardresetmedia.com/p/whistleblower-ftc-complaint-about-amazon-covariant?ref=spyglass.org) out of the deal even if the team seems to be pretty much gone. ### Google/Character We've been over this one. ### Meta/Scale [The big one.](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) While the nearly $15B deal [technically structured a bit different](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) than the other "hackquisitions" – namely in that Meta acquired a very specific 49% stake in Scale – the idea was still the same: bring AI talent on board to Meta, fast. And specifically, Mark Zuckerberg zero'd in on Alexandr Wang as the guy who would reboot Meta's AI efforts, [putting their Llama out to pasture](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/), as it were. We all know what happened from here – [mega offers](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) [led to](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) [mega chaos](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) both [around](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) [the entire AI ecosystem](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) and [within Meta itself](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/). The latter is still playing out, with [at least some believing](https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/why-is-meta-destroying-its-engineering?ref=spyglass.org) that Wang's Scale culture and techniques are eating Meta alive from within. At the same time, the new "Superintelligence" group has be able [to build and ship](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) their first models in record time. [They're not yet frontier](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/), but by all accounts they're good. So Zuckerberg, at least for now, has gotten the outputs he's wanted, though the inputs remain perhaps [an issue](https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/#:~:text=%E2%9B%93%EF%B8%8F%20Inside%20Meta%27s%20%22Gulag%22). And Meta's stock has been hammered hard with investors still concerned about Meta's AI path going forward given the billions spent, with hundreds of billions [more to come](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). This is still more TBD – like the name of the sub-group Wang runs – but it's not trending particularly well if the moves really [end up](https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/#:~:text=%5BWired%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22We%20obviously%20did) ripping Meta apart. ### Meta/NFDG [A strange deal](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) even by "hackquisition" standards. Meta essentially bought the book of Nat Friedman's and Daniel Gross' fund so that they could bring those two on board to help with their AI efforts. But that also mean Gross would have to leave the AI startup where he was not only a co-founder, *but the CEO*: Safe Superintelligence. [Ilya Sutskever did not seem happy about that](https://spyglass.org/signal-blue-binge/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Ilya%20Sutskever%20on%20Dwarkesh%20Podcast), as you might imagine. Especially since Zuckerberg had tried to "hackquire" SSI, but Sutskever shot him down ([though Meta did apparently invest](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/)). Friedman's role has seemingly shifted a couple times with constant re-orgs and shuffles in the aforementioned chaotic Meta environment. Gross is now working on Meta's infrastructure build-out for AI. ### Google/Windsurf [This was a layered shitshow](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) as OpenAI had originally agreed to acquire – as in *actually acquire* – Windsurf, then backed out (perhaps due to Microsoft). Google then stepped in to save the day – except the "hackquisition" nature of the deal led to a huge backlash because of the group being left behind, apparently without any sort of compensation. And so *another* AI startup, Cognition, stepped in to save the day from the already saved day. Fun times. --- That brings us to today, while there have been a few other "hackquisitions", they're either too small or too new – most notably, [NVIDIA's $20B mega deal to bring on board Groq talent](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/), where yes, the IP license actually seems to matter – to know how well they'll play out. But it's pretty clear that the first crop didn't pan out as the "hackquirerers" would have hoped. At best, the situations are messy. At worst, they're shitshows – or really no-shows, with the talent now gone. Shazeer is the biggest of those to date – again, in less than two years after a $2.7B deal. Can't wait to hear more about what happened there. But it could be as simple as these "hackquisitions" not aligning incentives very well... --- 1 And yes, there are [reports](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/googles-2-7-billion-ai-hire-tests-companys-speech-limits-inflammatory-posts?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) that Shazeer was a headache for Google too internally in this second stint. [↩](#) ### Inklings #020 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-snaps-specs-apples-price-increases-epics-open-plea-siris-rebuild/ Last updated: 2026-06-18T15:26:27.000Z Snap's stock is down [again](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/17/after-unveiling-ridiculously-expensive-ar-glasses-snaps-stock-takes-a-dive/?ref=spyglass.org) today and it's now *below an $8B market cap*. Safe to say the market doesn't think Specs will ignite a turnaround. But they're also in a weird position where thanks to super-voting shares, the "normal" market mechanisms, don't really apply here. So is it crazy to think they should team up with PE and go private again? [Can ‘Specs’ Snap Snap’s Losing Streak?Sadly, no. Not at these prices. But they had little choice…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-97508fcf-6fed-4564-9b77-19ff2ec07e39.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2f525e8a51b1011f76c008801ff2ffe2.3804x1902-57c04813-26c4-4791-8978-2fbab283ffa1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🍎** [**“Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable."**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-price-increases-memory-supply-199845b1?ref=spyglass.org) **–** It has come to this. Apple, the company which prides themselves in price stability for consumers is being forced to raise prices due to the chip crunch. Tim Cook clearly knows what a shock to the system it will be – even a $100 raise here or there will undoubtedly dent sales, and if the iPhone price increase needs to be substantial, watch out. It's really pretty wild that this is one of Cook's [last moves as CEO](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/). The operations master who has priced Apple products to perfection (from a margin-perspective) has been sideswiped by the market. And it's coming at the worst possible time given that [the new Siri AI](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) functionality relies on [more RAM](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/), which means Apple [has to boost it](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/06/16/iphone-18-to-pack-12gb-of-ram/?ref=spyglass.org) across their devices to ensure the features will work well – so they can't really just offer options with less memory. A real sort of changing of the guard moment, not just for Apple ([John Ternus will have to be](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) the one on stage in September unveiling the new iPhone pricing) but also for the industry, as it's now the various AI players, [led by NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/), that [commands](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Apple%20%2B%20Intel%20Details) inventory more so than Apple. Rolfe Winkler has [a nice, quick overview video](https://www.wsj.com/video/heres-why-apple-ceo-tim-cook-says-prices-will-have-to-increase/E9B88F61-52A8-4D22-84AB-ED6D3750E672?ref=spyglass.org) for his scoop too. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-price-increases-memory-supply-199845b1?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **⚔️** [**Epic's 'Team Open' Plea**](https://gamesbeat.com/epic-games-ceo-tim-sweeney-calls-for-team-open-to-address-game-industrys-challenges/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** When he's not busy [battling Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/) in ([and out of](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/)) court, Tim Sweeney returns to his day job running Epic Games which, App Store issues aside, is... in a bit of a precarious place. Why? Roblox. Sweeney is clearly terrified that it's eating *Fortnite* and making the case that it's taking the whole industry with it. So he's calling on everyone else to link arms and fight for an ["open"](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) ecosystem – which sounds less like an "open" alliance and more like an anti-Roblox alliance. Only tangentially stated is his hope/belief that Epic will power all of this via their Unreal Engine and/or – [more ideally](https://www.theverge.com/games/951785/epic-games-fortnite-unreal-fest-2026-unreal-engine-6-ai-metaverse?ref=spyglass.org) – banding together with *Fortnite* directly. He obviously still wants to make the Metaverse – his Metaverse – [happen](https://spyglass.org/epic-metaverse/), and he sees it slipping away. [Help us, Josh D'Amaro](https://spyglass.org/disney-epic/), you're our only hope? That is, unless [maybe](https://spyglass.org/the-resuscitation-of-xbox/) Microsoft wants to shed [Mojang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mojang%5FStudios?ref=spyglass.org) to [merge Minecraft](https://spyglass.org/epic-metaverse/) into the effort? **\[**[**GamesBeat**](https://gamesbeat.com/epic-games-ceo-tim-sweeney-calls-for-team-open-to-address-game-industrys-challenges/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🔨** [**Siri to the Studs**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/06/15/apple-explains-why-siris-major-ios-27-overhaul-took-so-long/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Why does the new Siri [work now](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Siri%20AI%20Actually%20Seems%20To%20Just%20Work) whereas [previous attempts](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) the past 15 years or so [have not](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/)? They had to completely rebuild it from scratch. So said team lead Mike Rockwell at the smaller, more technical event following the WWDC keynote last week. He noted that while they quickly built a new version last year that was on top of the existing Siri, it was "sort of incremental", so they scrapped it and completely rebuilt it, which obviously took longer. In other words, it sounds like Apple went through [the exact same exercise](https://spyglass.org/remarkable-alexa/) that [Amazon did](https://spyglass.org/unremarkable-alexa/) with Alexa. This could not be less surprising to me as I've written about this very topic [numerous times](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) – that Apple and Amazon were in [particularly bad spots](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) when the LLM revolution came [because of their previous success](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) with Siri and Alexa, respectively. While those original systems seem comically rudimentary by today's AI standards, they were breakthroughs at the time and as such, gained millions of users – users neither company wanted to just abandon. But whereas both clearly thought you could build a bridge between the two technologies, you really couldn't. Even Google [keeps](https://9to5google.com/2026/06/16/google-home-update-news-briefing-change-sparks-confusion/?ref=spyglass.org) [seeing](https://www.techradar.com/vehicle-tech/car-infotainment/the-whole-gemini-migration-has-been-a-dumpster-fire-gemini-calls-are-broken-on-android-auto-and-users-are-switching-back-to-google-assistant?ref=spyglass.org) [endless](https://9to5google.com/2025/12/17/gemini-for-home-reportedly-breaks-automations/?ref=spyglass.org) edge cases break as they [update](https://www.theverge.com/tech/924755/google-home-gemini-3-1-upgrade?ref=spyglass.org) 'Assistant' with Gemini. Anyway, good to see Apple took the harder, needed steps, though they probably should have known they'd need to do that [*a few* years ago](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/)... **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/06/15/apple-explains-why-siris-major-ios-27-overhaul-took-so-long/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Quote... > "This is a hundred-year flood. I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years." – **Tim Cook**, [in his interview](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-price-increases-memory-supply-199845b1?ref=spyglass.org) linked to above about Apple's need to raise prices due to memory chip shortages. ### Asides... - I had [long been wondering](https://spyglass.org/return-of-the-rings/#:~:text=As%20An%20Aside...-,%F0%9F%91%B7%20Midjourney,-%2C%20the%20AI%20image) what hardware project the AI image generator **Midjourney** could be working on and... it's a **full body ultrasound** scanner. And a **spa** to compliment it. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/952011/midjourney-medical-ai-ultrasound-scan?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Two thoughts:** 1) Cool? 2) What?! - A third thought: what does this mean for **Midjourney's** [partnership](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/171977150/metas-midjourney-partnership?ref=spyglass.org) with **Meta**? Might they just acquire that part of the business? - This is [perhaps](https://x.com/lil%5Fdill/status/2067474518285996408?ref=spyglass.org) the most wild pivot since **Allbirds** became '**Smartbird**', making the shoe startup an **AI infrastructure** company. Yes, that' real. **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/allbirds-rebrands-smartbird-ai-pivot-hires-former-aws-executive-ceo-2026-06-17/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Meanwhile, **Mastodon** isn't exactly pivoting to **newsletters**, but is trying that angle to rope-in would-be creators. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/17/mastodon-looks-to-newsletters-to-help-revive-the-open-social-web/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The '**iPhone Air 2**' – as in **two cameras**, looks set for **Spring 2027**. Could it end up working as the 'Pro'/Premium option for the new [bifurcated](https://spyglass.org/apples-first-look-fall-secondary-spring/) release schedule? [Otherwise, bye bye](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/)? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-17/apple-prepares-second-generation-iphone-air-for-spring-2027?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Apple** is about to make their '**Hide My Email**' feature **useless**, which seems dumb. **\[**[**Arseniy Shestakov**](https://arseniyshestakov.com/2026/06/16/apple-is-about-to-make-hide-my-email-useless/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - They [missed](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%8A%20Where%20is%20the%20Google%20Home%20Speaker%3F) Spring by a few days, but Gemini-powered **Google Home Speaker** is finally here next week. You're up next [new HomePod](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) \+ Siri AI... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/951147/google-home-speaker-gemini-launch-date-price-specs-features?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Craig Federighi sort of joked about it during the WWDC keynote, but is **Apple** slowing shifting **macOS** towards simply using the **version numbers** ([now tied to years](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/), of course) instead of the fun, quirky names? There are signs... **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/06/16/apple-has-started-replacing-macos-names-with-version-numbers-in-several-ways/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Threads** hits **500M MAU**, which is [likely](https://www.demandsage.com/twitter-statistics/?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Twitter%20%28X%29%20has%20557%20million,billion%20in%20revenue%20in%202024.) *very* close to Xitter, just took [a few months longer](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/#:~:text=Threads%20passes%20Xitter%20in%20active%20users) than I guessed. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/16/threads-adds-new-personalization-and-community-features-as-it-reaches-500m-monthly-users/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• AirPods with Cameras Set for Late 2027** ****• OpenAI Poaches Google's Hackquired Talent** ****• SpaceX's "Cheap" $60B Deal** ****• Anthropic's Breach... of Trust** ****• Meta's Ongoing Turmoil** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Can 'Specs' Snap Snap's Losing Streak? URL: https://spyglass.org/snap-specs-way-too-expensive/ Last updated: 2026-06-18T07:18:57.000Z Look, it's easy to dunk on [Snap's new Specs](https://www.fastcompany.com/91559773/snap-specs-2026-ar-glasses-evan-spiegel?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) They're big and bulky, last for four hours, and cost $2,195\. That said, there are obviously impressive bits too – namely in the fact that they don't require you to tether to a power brick (as [the Vision Pro does](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/)) or a puck (as Meta's AR glasses [have thus far](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/)). The main thing I'm worried about is that they're seemingly not ready to let anyone actually *use* them yet. Perhaps not a surprise given they're aiming to ship in the fall. But who on Earth would pre-order these at that price point without at least someone vouching for them? Snap may be popular with the youths, but they're not Apple when it comes to consumer hardware. Also, even Apple has had a hell of a time [selling the Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/). To be fair, people have been trying the Specs for quite a while, but older versions that were a dev kit for this one. The impressions range from people impressed by aspects to those frustrated by many others. That, I suspect, will be roughly the same reaction to these consumer-oriented Specs. But again, it's just hard to see how you can justify the price point. Snap itself can because they have a business to run. And well, it hasn't been [running so smoothly](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/?ref=dossier-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Can%20Snap%20Cut%20Its%20Way%20To%20Success%3F), at least from a stock perspective in recent years. The reality here is that they simply can't afford to sell these Specs at a massive loss, quite literally. And while Evan Spiegel is quick to point out that the original Mac was also insanely expensive, and that the Vision Pro still is, again, Snap is not Apple. And again, the Vision Pro hasn't sold well! Neither did the Mac at first! So why on Earth is Snap launching these now? Well, for one thing, Spiegel said they would. He previously [promised](https://www.theverge.com/tech/950492/snap-specs-ar-glasses-launch-date-preorder?ref=spyglass.org) they were coming in 2026\. Lest his product be tagged with the dreaded "vaporware" label, he's aiming to get them out the door before the end of the year – note the "Expected to ship starting Fall 2026" wording on [their site](https://www.spectacles.com/?ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) "Expected" is seemingly doing some work there... For another thing, as mentioned, Snap is in a tricky spot as a company. While the core product, Snapchat, continues to hum along with their key demographic, life as a public company is hard. They've simply never been able to monetize as well as their main rival Meta and that, in turn, has given them even less leeway with Wall Street when it comes to far afield bets such as this one. Also, Wall Street has long hated Meta's bet on the Metaverse and clearly views this as analogous – though again, without the great profit engine to back it up. Spiegel would say – and *is* saying – that Specs are simply an extension of what Snap has always been doing with Snapchat. That is, a "more human" approach to bring technology into your life. And that they've owned and perfected "AR" for years at this point, albeit on smartphones. Again, Specs aim to bring that further into the real world. Spiegel is good at selling his vision, [he always has been](https://spyglass.org/snap-spectacles/), the problem comes when he actually puts on the product (more on that below). But the real problem is the price point. Thinking through the strategy a year ago, [I noted](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/165688295/snaps-ar-specs-set-for-next-year?ref=spyglass.org) that it felt like sub-$1,000 was key – and the closer to $500, the better. [Well, there goes that dream](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1--J0qu6ol0&ref=spyglass.org). You can blame tariffs or trade wars or actual wars or memory chip wars, the reality is that $2,195 is just not going to cut it. It's just hard to see anyone buying it, be it Wall Street all the way down to consumers. That's harsh, but also just [reality](https://spyglass.org/snap-ar-glasses/). At the same time, it is hard to see what other choice Snap has. Their attempt to make the Spec's business a separate subsidiary with other funding possibilities hasn't eased Wall Street [concerns](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/big-tech-and-big-ai?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Snapchat%20has%20had,%5BVerge%5D). Meanwhile, the aforementioned Meta and Apple continue work to come after the space. Those efforts seem further out with "smartglasses" (think: less AR and more AI) [the focus for now](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/). Therein probably lies the answer. Snap probably should have doubled down on AI instead of AR. But hindsight is obviously 20/20 – even in Specs. One can almost [envision](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20%22Startup%20Energy%22%20at%20Snap) a world in which Snap was a player in "human-centric AI" right now, an angle that everyone from Meta to Microsoft is [trying](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) to own as the [backlash](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) against AI [continues](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) to [swell](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/). Meta was able to pivot from their Metaverse bet, but it took billions upon billions of dollars. Snap simply doesn't have that luxury. Or time. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-17-at-5.26.06---PM.png) Because, again, Wall Street continues to punish the stock. To the point where at some point, one has to imagine Snap is an attractive takeover target. Thanks to founder-controlled shares, a hostile takeover seems unlikely if not impossible, but Spiegel still has a fiduciary responsibility to take any offers on the table seriously. Snap is currently an $8B company. That's like an AI seed round these days... The better option may be for Spiegel and team to team up with some PE players to [take Snap private again](https://spyglass.org/snap-adds-ads/?utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email). The Dell playbook is what I'm imagining here. Back in 2013, the company was downtrodden when Michael Dell concocted the largest LBO ever at [just under $25B](https://www.reuters.com/article/business/dell-to-go-private-in-landmark-244-billion-deal-idUSBRE9140NH/?ref=spyglass.org). This allowed Dell to operate back under the covers of being a private company while they reworked the business. It worked. Dell later [went public again](https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/28/18159305/dell-stock-market-return-public-nyse?ref=spyglass.org) and is now valued at *$260B*. That's undoubtedly an unreasonable goal, but there's a lot of room between Snap's $8B market cap and Dell's $260B. Coincidentally, Snap's peak market cap five years ago was exactly half of Dell's right now: $130B. Sure, it was inflated as many such things were during the pandemic, but wow, that's quite a steep drop. Anyway, back to the Specs themselves. In a certain light, from certain angles, [they actually look pretty good](https://9to5google.com/2026/06/16/snap-specs-are-ar-glasses-that-look-like-that-and-cost-2195-gallery/?ref=spyglass.org). Granted I may be biased as someone who has worn thick black-rimmed glasses much of my life, but still... you could see them working. Then you see them on actual people, not in their marketing shots and [they look](https://x.com/NathieVR/status/2066967928495640729?ref=spyglass.org)... well, [not great, Bob](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpUWrl3-mc8&ref=spyglass.org). Still entirely too thick and bulky.[3](#three) Like glasses that a caricature of a mobster in the 1970s might wear. Or someone who needs the thickest prescription lenses you can buy. Again, with no puck for either battery or compute, this is not a surprise. But we're still clearly not at the point where we can ditch the puck yet. Four hours of battery life is okay... unless you actually need to wear the glasses to see. So no, these aren't actually replacements for real glasses, which Meta Ray-Bans [can be](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/) if you were so inclined. That doesn't mean they're useless, it just means it's [still way too early](https://spyglass.org/meta-snap-ar-glasses/) to push ahead here with such specs for Specs. Obviously how they do their core task, AR, will matter. But again, no one knows for sure yet because Snap isn't letting anyone know for sure yet. And again, the dev kits suggest some interesting elements, but it's early. Far more interesting may be the notion of using these as a secondary monitor for your computer, which Spiegel says is one of his core use cases. This is certainly a compelling use case for the Vision Pro too, but that device is [so comically cumbersome](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/) to put on and start using that it's a non-starter for most. But a headset you simply slip on, with no cables required?... But then it comes back to: would I pay $2,195 for that? I mean it's better than the Vision Pro's $3,499! But it's still way out of range for most consumers. Which Snap obviously has to know, I'm just not sure they had any other choice but to launch here and hope that some use case boosts them to the point where they can survive until a simpler, svelter, and cheaper version is ready. Can Snap make it long enough as a stand-alone entity to find out? The question simply must be asked, sadly. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-17-at-5.11.45---PM.png) I call this 'Black & White Steel' --- 1 Especially, it seems to me, on Threads, owned by Snap's main rival, which is interesting in a Twitter-under-Elon sort of way, though perhaps not unexpected in a self-selecting sort of way... [↩](#) 2 I will say the virtual "try-on" element of the site is one of the best I've seen. It's so simple – though also oddly in black and white? [↩](#) 3 I do appreciate [Harry McCracken's note on the matter](https://www.fastcompany.com/91559773/snap-specs-2026-ar-glasses-evan-spiegel?ref=spyglass.org): "The new version is 40% lighter, has more than five times the claimed battery life, offers a wider field of view, and, though still decidedly chunky, no longer vaguely resembles a Cybertruck affixed to your face." [↩](#) ### Inklings #019 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-as-the-anthropic-turns-nadellas-frontier-uk-social-media-ban-fox-buys-roku-spielberg-returns/ Last updated: 2026-06-16T08:51:43.000Z Today, a double-feature – a sort of one-two punch on the situation in which Anthropic currently finds themselves. How they might work their way out, and why they might not – because they might not *want* to... [Anthropic’s Heel TurnIt’s perhaps more of an Anakin Skywalker situation…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-9019654d-5a63-444c-901a-54a9ec36b946.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/starwars3_movie_screencaps.com_14193-24b42ed7-1cc9-4435-827a-616163ea72c1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) [Regulation for Thee, Not for MeWhy did the Trump administration go nuclear on Anthropic – again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-413728f1-4903-4e72-b5ca-9b44288370cc.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-15--2026--10_53_00-AM-1-cbdef0cd-1e17-4e11-9dc1-6891ee9e0d1e.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💫** [**Satya Nadella's "Frontier Ecosystem"**](https://snscratchpad.com/posts/frontier-ecosystem/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Look, it's clearly easier to write a call-to-arms against frontier model domination when you don't currently control one of those leading frontier models. Though it's also awkward when you own 25%+ of a startup that *does* control one of those – and even more so when you're now [spending](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) *billions of dollars* [to try to create](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) one of those leading frontier models. That said, that doesn't mean Nadella is *wrong* in any of this – and many, [increasingly](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/), would hope he's right, I imagine! Beyond the models, it puts the [premium on people](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/), the true "orchestration layer" within a company that makes it what it is – [not just an automated system](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/). Yet questions remain about *how many* people are actually needed to build such companies versus the status quo – and *what exactly* their jobs will entail. The other elephant in Nadella's room here is that Microsoft obviously wants to be the platform on which this future is built. It's not a bad pitch, just completely conflicted, and a bit obtuse. But that makes it seem as if Nadella actually wrote it, [which is a good thing](https://spyglass.org/decidedly-not-live-from-ces/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%9D%20Satya%20Nadella%20Blogs). **\[**[**SN Scratchpad**](https://snscratchpad.com/posts/frontier-ecosystem/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🇬🇧** [**The UK Bans Social Media for Kids**](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/britain-expected-set-out-under-16s-social-media-restrictions-2026-06-14/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While I'm generally not in favor of "nanny state" moves, I think overall this is the right, tough call. To me, it's less about taking something away from kids – which, they'll figure out a way to access anyway, as I would have when I was that age – and more about the signal it sends. And not even necessarily to the tech companies, more just to society. This ban, if implemented well – admittedly a big "if" – will act to switch the norm from all kids *needing* to be on social media to be "normal" to the opposite. It will hopefully relieve that pressure – performative and otherwise. I am torn about roping YouTube into this – on one hand, I get it given its scale and social dynamics, but on the other, for all the crap, it is also a wealth of interesting and useful content (not to mention entertainment, of course). I guess [not banning YouTube Kids](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceqdny4l3jdo?ref=spyglass.org), is an okay work-around (though they'll probably need to re-brand it?), but still... I'm also really not sure about the gaming element of this. Again, I get it, but this slope is already awfully slippery. AI chatbots will have to be included at some point, right? This [isn't the first such ban](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp9d3ddqyo?ref=spyglass.org) and won't be the last, but it happens to be where I live, raising young children so... we'll see how this goes. The ["Big Techbacco"](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/) trend continues... **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/britain-expected-set-out-under-16s-social-media-restrictions-2026-06-14/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🦊** [**Fox Gets Their Own Streaming Box**](https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/fox-roku-deal-f6e564f9?ref=spyglass.org) **–** The $22B deal for Roku will have all kinds of ramifications. While it is the most popular streaming box, the company [actually makes most of its money](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-12/roku-said-to-be-in-sale-talks-including-possible-media-tie-up?ref=spyglass.org) from its ad businesses, which includes their streaming *service*. And Fox already has another one of those in Tubi ([which they say they're not merging](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/fox-roku-channel-tubi-separate-1236621986/?ref=spyglass.org)). Meanwhile, the "Switzerland" nature of the company – which, many forget, actually [started as a skunkworks project inside Netflix](https://www.fastcompany.com/3004709/inside-netflixs-project-griffin-forgotten-history-roku-under-reed-hastings?ref=spyglass.org) way back when – has allowed their boxes to flourish. (Well that and the fact that they're cheap and easy-to-use – even as they've gotten increasingly [spammy with ads in the UI](https://spyglass.org/roku-adds-ads/).) If they're no longer Switzerland, will it change the way other competitors view them? Wall Street [clearly](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/fox-to-buy-roku.html?ref=spyglass.org) *hates* this deal, with Fox's stock down over 15% today. But it's probably a smart deal *if* they can maintain the status quo, which is not certain. Beyond the [FAST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free%5Fad-supported%5Fstreaming%5Ftelevision?ref=spyglass.org) services, [their "Howdy" low-price streaming service](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) is [intriguing too](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/171274073/roku-says-howdy-to-a-299-streaming-service?ref=spyglass.org). Let's also remember that at the height of the pandemic streaming boom, *Roku had a market cap of $65B*. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/fox-roku-deal-f6e564f9?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🍿** [**Steven Spielberg: The Return**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/14/business/media/disclosure-day-steven-spielberg-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** The past few weeks have been all about the youth movement, [largely driven by YouTube](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/), happening in real time at the box office. But this past weekend, Steven Spielberg came roaring back to life – incredibly, the man who created the summer blockbuster with *Jaws* hasn't had one in *24 years*! The 79-year-old director learned some new tricks – TikTok, [viral stunts](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd0m5e4301mo?ref=spyglass.org), etc – but it was the *olds* who ultimately saved the *Disclosure Day*: 59% of the audience for the $44M opening were over 34 (which yes, qualifies as "old" for moviegoing). There's still a ways to go for profitability, as the movie cost just under $200M to make and market – it will need to make around $400M to break-even at the box office, so let's see how the second weekend holds – sadly, [as expected](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BD%EF%B8%8F%20%27Scary%20Movie%27%20Screams%2C%20%27Masters%20of%20the%20Universe%27%20Bombs), *Masters of the Universe* plunged almost 70% in its second weekend. Somehow, *Obsession*, in its 5th weekend, stayed at #2, which marks *four straight weekends which were bigger than its actual opening*. Wild. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/14/business/media/disclosure-day-steven-spielberg-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Quote... > "He simply did not want to be conflated with Mark Zuckerberg anymore, that he has his problems with the guy. He doesn’t like kids coming up to him in airports with business cards that say 'I'm CEO, bitch' for him to sign." – **Aaron Sorkin** [on why](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/aaron-sorkin-jesse-eisenberg-mark-zuckerberg-role-social-reckoning-1236620819/?ref=spyglass.org) Jesse Eisenberg didn't want to reprise his role as Mark Zuckerberg in *The Social Reckoning*, the sequel ([at least spiritually](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/)) to the 2010 film he wrote, *The Social Network*. [I had](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/166970418/the-social-network-part-ii?ref=spyglass.org) [been wondering](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/down-bad?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=169817351&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=Just%20yesterday%2C,%5BTHR%5D) why he passed – Sorkin noted that he tried for *three straight days* to get him to do it. Fair enough. And Jeremy Strong's vocal performance as Zuck seems like it will be one for the ages, even if, oddly Jeremy Allen White, who plays journalist Jeff Horwitz, actually *looks* more like Zuck. --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• SpaceX's Colossal Data Center Problem** ****• Inside Meta's "Gulag"** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Regulation for Thee, Not for Me URL: https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/ Last updated: 2026-06-15T15:15:25.000Z Everyone knows the old proverb, "be careful what you wish for..." And while no one is sure of its exact origins, it has retained its power over perhaps centuries because while everyone knows it, many still fail to heed its warning time and time again. These past few days have brought the latest example: Anthropic. The AI startup has been the loudest proponent of stricter controls over the broader technology, often [equating it to nuclear weapons](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) to drive the point home. Well, message received – even if garbled and mangled. With the news late last week that the Trump administration would be putting in place export controls on Fable 5, Anthropic's latest model, the company is now once again scrambling to figure out a path forward. I say "again" because we're a mere *three months* from [the last blow-up with the administration](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/), which ended in the company being deemed a supply-chain risk. This new situation has nothing to do with that one, the administration is quick to say. But of course it does, even if indirectly. It's a dance between two sides that clearly don't like one another because they clearly don't see eye-to-eye on some crucial policies and ideals. This, in turn, seemingly gives the administration a decidedly quicker trigger finger when it comes to things such as this current situation. And Anthropic is giving them every excuse in the world to do this because again, *they're asking for it*. [Literally](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-blocks-foreign-access-anthropics-most-advanced-ai-models-axios-reports-2026-06-13/?ref=spyglass.org)! Again, the endless calls for stronger controls and oversight, while perhaps noble in ways and prudent in others, are simply not a good way to impact policy. At best, you're going to be charged with fear-mongering. At worst, you're scaring away would-be customers. Now, Anthropic may say that actually, these stances are engendering some level of trust with the customer base. The notion that they're perhaps the only ones telling the truth about AI and even willing to stand up to the government to prove it. Certainly, their [recent surge in numbers](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20Anthropic%20at%20%24900B%2B) plays to [this narrative](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/). But it's also far more nuanced than this. Because beyond the battles with the government, Anthropic's actions are also undermining such trust in other ways. [There's a growing sense](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) that it's increasingly Anthropic's way or the highway. That applies to the administration and to partners and to customers. And that's perhaps okay when you're the scrappy underdog. But when you move into the position of power as the de-facto leader in AI, that's a problem. Potentially a big one. As such, when the company complains that the export control around Fable is unwarranted, it has the decided ring of "regulation for thee, not for me." I'm not saying they don't have a point – in fact, based on everything I've read and heard, I think they do (more below)! But the point is that this misses the point because Anthropic is increasingly missing the point. The company does not operate in a perfect simulation, but rather in the real world. The very messy, very chaotic real world. The reality here, sadly, is that you must often bend to get your way. Because you have to work with others. Sometimes that involves bending to the point of breaking, the key is simply not to go over that line, obviously. You would have thought Anthropic would have learned this lesson already. They were against taking money from certain entities in the Middle East until [the reality](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/big-ai-and-big-streaming?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=169221774&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=In%20his%20leaked,%5BWired%5D) of the world [dictated](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/169453915/anthropic-at-150b?ref=spyglass.org) that [they had to](https://www.wired.com/story/anthropic-dario-amodei-gulf-state-leaked-memo/?ref=spyglass.org) in order to survive. The DoD situation was one the company seemed fine going to war over, until the realities of *actual* war dictated that[ they had to tone down the rhetoric](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) and let cooler heads prevail. But, well, they keep finding themselves in compromising situations! It's to the point where you almost have to wonder if Anthropic isn't actually angling for such outcomes. That is, while *calling* for regulation is one thing, forcing yourself to be regulated is, well, a more direct way to enact such regulation! *Wait a minute*. **What if this is what Anthropic wants?!** Again, it simply can't be discounted to zero at this point. There's a way to tell this story where what they're doing is actually forcing the government to act and to make an example of them for the greater good. Well, for Anthropic's version of the greater good, at least. "Regulate me, Daddy," and all that. The problem with this narrative is that the administration [doesn't seem eager](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/u-s-government-unlikely-extend-anthropic-export-control-ai-companies?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) or ready to regulate anyone else *except for* Anthropic. So yeah, that's a problem if that's your game of 3D chess. It turns the game into checkers, fast. ### Let's try some triangulation to Occam's razor this shit... At some point last week, it seems like the Trump administration was alerted of a potential security problem with Fable. [Multiple](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/13/anthropic-amazon-white-house?ref=spyglass.org) [stories](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-voiced-concerns-about-anthropic-ai-models-before-us-governments-crackdown-2026-06-13/?ref=spyglass.org) point to *Amazon* as the main whistleblower, though other [reports](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/13/inside-the-whirlwind-24-hours-that-led-the-white-house-to-slap-export-controls-on-anthropic-00961519?ref=spyglass.org) have *multiple* entities raising such concerns. At least [one report](https://www.ft.com/content/f6940d59-28f4-4ae4-a569-c6fc421e52b9?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) notes that Amazon flagged this to Anthropic first, and this is plausible because it sure seems like the actual issue here is that Anthropic doesn't believe this vulnerability is a big deal, while the administration does. So it's entirely possible that Anthropic was made aware of this issue, but decided there was no immediate action needed because, in fact, the precautions they took [to turn Mythos](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) into Fable should take care of the concern raised. Further, it *seems* like the same vulnerability – a bypass, not a "universal jailbreak", [per Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access?ref=spyglass.org) – exists in other leading models and they clearly don't view it as an exploit that's going to lead to catastrophic harm. Again, this is Anthropic, the company quick to jump on any and all reasons to declare that some element of AI is going to cause potentially existential harm! Anyway, again, the administration clearly believed otherwise. Or at least that's the cover they're conveying. It's certainly possible that someone convinced them of this, but it's also entirely possible that they're wrong. Regardless, the situation led to a phone call to Anthropic the outcome of which was... not great! A lot of he said/she said (he sAId/she sAId) here. Clearly someone on the administration side leaked out that when they tried to get Dario Amodei on the phone, *he was said to be out of office at a wellness retreat*. The fact that Anthropic flat out denies this is amazing. It suggests that someone really wanted to make Anthropic look unserious in this situation. "Sorry, Dario couldn't be bothered to save the world because he was in a sound bath." That kind of thing. I can't wait to hear the real background of this aspect – it does seem like he was stuck in *something*, was it a meeting about wellness, something about the model and/or safety, that was distorted, intentionally or not, into a "wellness retreat"? Whatever Amodei was busy with, the fact that *he was busy when the White House called* is obviously not a great look. No matter what you think about the administration, it's the White House! You should probably have *some* level of respect for the institution and their concerns over safety. Even if you think they're misguided! You probably shouldn't leave them waiting for a – [very specific](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/13/inside-the-whirlwind-24-hours-that-led-the-white-house-to-slap-export-controls-on-anthropic-00961519?pfrom-home-ndtv%5Fspotlight?pfrom=home-ndtv%5Fspotlight&ref=spyglass.org) – *hour and fifteen minutes*. Sure, others may have been tasked with managing the situation, but again, it's the White House. This is a CEO situation. And then when the phone calls were finally connected, it sounds like that didn't go well either. To the point where Scott Bessent and perhaps Susie Wiles – notable as they were [said to be](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/anthropic-white-house-wiles-bessent-amodei?ref=spyglass.org) two of the key drivers to [*cool down*](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/?ref=dossier-newsletter#:~:text=Anthropic%20is%20apparently%20engaged%20in%20peace%20talks%20with%20the%20White%20House.%20%28Thanks%2C%20Mythos!%29%20Which%20is%20a%20silly/ridiculous%20framing%20given%20everything%20going%20on%20in%20the%20world%2C%20but%20also%20clearly%20true!%20%5BAxios%5D) the previous DoD situation – are clearly being conveyed as annoyed/pissed off. Again, the reporting suggests that Amodei gave the administration the "this is no big deal" explanation and it sure seems like they didn't like that explanation too much! One can imagine they viewed this response as flippant. Anthropic was given an hour and a half – 90 minutes! – just fifteen minutes longer than Amodei left them hanging on the phone, to pull Fable. Anthropic ended up doing so after the White House took the drastic action of [the export ban](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-trump-mythos-fable-national-security?ref=spyglass.org). This was not only a problem for [other countries](https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/13/wake-up-call-europe-reacts-to-anthropic-halting-access-to-its-fable-5-and-mythos-5-ai-mode?ref=spyglass.org) – including [allies](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-14/carney-says-anthropic-ban-shows-risk-of-relying-on-big-ai-models?ref=spyglass.org) – looking to use the model, or its variations, like Mythos, continuing their security research, but [also for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-blocks-foreign-access-anthropics-most-advanced-ai-models-axios-reports-2026-06-13/?ref=spyglass.org) *American companies* with non-US citizens working there. [Including](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/technology/anthropic-mythos-fable5-blocked.html?ref=spyglass.org), Anthropic! So yeah, Anthropic had little choice but to pull the model. It feels like this is all a bad game of telephone, both figuratively and literally. It's still not entirely clear which side is "right" and there's undoubtedly nuance here. It [sounds like](https://www.ft.com/content/f6940d59-28f4-4ae4-a569-c6fc421e52b9?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) most outside experts are siding with Anthropic right now, recognizing what the problem is and recognizing that the administration may not realize what the actual issue is. OpenAI is oddly – perhaps not so oddly – quiet here even though their own models may have the same issues. Ditto for Google, xAI, and everyone else. Many rushed to defend – or at least *pretend* to – Anthropic in the DoD situation, but there are a lot of crickets here. If nothing else, it showcases that Anthropic is perhaps burning more bridges than just those with the Trump administration. At the same time, China got [quickly thrown](https://www.semafor.com/article/06/13/2026/white-house-move-to-limit-anthropic-linked-to-concerns-about-chinese-access-to-mythos?ref=spyglass.org) into the mix. Just as a bogeyman, or as a legitimate concern? Unclear. Anthropic, for what its worth, says China was never brought up as an actor of concern in all this... And why on Earth is Andy Jassy, [fresh off of](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) a massive capital infusion from Amazon to Anthropic, [in the middle of this](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazons-jassy-raised-concerns-anthropic-model-trump-crackdown?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)? He can't be the actual whistleblower, right? Right?! Maybe he just happened to be on the phone with President Trump, or some other high-ranking official, when all this was going down? And when pushed for his thoughts, he just relayed what his researchers found? [There](https://x.com/TrungTPhan/status/2065830987699978585/photo/1?ref=spyglass.org) [are](https://x.com/varindiamag/status/2066444480744710490?ref=spyglass.org) [some](https://x.com/stayintouch%5FSIT/status/2066074289866985668/photo/1?ref=spyglass.org) [great](https://x.com/Mortid%5FX/status/2066173167069229183/photo/1?ref=spyglass.org) [memes](https://x.com/SemiAnalysis%5F/status/2066154169262903456?ref=spyglass.org) around this though, as you might imagine. Again, this is all just some triangulation and guesswork to come to the [Occam's razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s%5Frazor?ref=spyglass.org) of it all. It's likely a misunderstanding – on a few fronts. And it's undoubtedly exacerbated by the existing bad blood between Anthropic and the Trump administration. As such, Anthropic finds itself once again [scrambling](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/14/anthropic-white-house-mythos-fable?ref=spyglass.org), not necessarily to fix Fable, but to convince the administration that they don't have to. Because they're right, you see. Oh, you don't? This all points to that bigger issue: the complete and utter lack of trust between the two sides. Arguably the most important AI player in the world and the entity that runs the free world – and the country in which said AI player operates. That seems like a bad disconnect to have. The good news for Anthropic is that the Trump administration won't be in power forever. The bad news for Anthropic is that they will be in power for another two and a half years. A lot can and will happen in that time – especially in AI. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Anthropic’s Heel TurnIt’s perhaps more of an Anakin Skywalker situation…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-df144351-2f29-45bb-b3fc-89a751640909.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/starwars3_movie_screencaps.com_14193-86b16b10-7e2f-4869-b86d-3124b60246b2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/) [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-d1ada465-da2a-4c64-aa3a-854a97a0a8d4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3-4c644608-39f9-4c73-bf81-64156b59a1a8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [The Casual Catastrophe of AICan the sheer scale of compute fix the world before it breaks it?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-8bbd09e4-bc70-4373-b8ca-f6ee74242a38.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--12_57_18-PM-81f4724a-d191-41da-a46a-5c766e0aefb1.png)](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) [AI in a Time of WarA chat about Anthropic vs. the Department of War, the state of AI within Apple, and Netflix walking away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-884cd865-f534-4dd7-bff5-17c06d80c39a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-6--2026--12_04_30-PM-2-ae028b8c-49cd-4999-b6b2-ec8ada93554d.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/) [When Knees Buckle, then Bend, then BreakOn Anthropic’s war with the Department of War…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-75a05418-b593-4273-a46a-1043f86673a1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/438356-theon-greyjoy-reek-played-alfie-allen-78232734-24de-4035-a5ab-70ea91458339.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) ### Anthropic's Heel Turn URL: https://spyglass.org/anthropic-becomes-the-villain/ Last updated: 2026-06-15T09:57:07.000Z This is [a great post by Hari Raghavan](https://x.com/haridigresses/article/2065574450183963134?ref=spyglass.org), despite the fact that it's written on Xitter, which offers up an experience that's a bit like reading in an active war zone. He makes the case for why the sentiment around Anthropic, which started as the sort of lovable underdog of AI compared to OpenAI,[1](#one) is shifting, fast. Part of it is as simple as moving from an entity playing catch-up to one in the lead. This naturally changes perceptions – just ask Apple. But a lot of it is the self-inflicted wounds Anthropic keeps giving themselves over and over again. None of it seems actually nefarious, but all of it suggests a complete and utter inability to read a room. At first, [this was the Pentagon](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/), which, admittedly, [is complicated](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/), and perhaps especially under the current administration – an administration full of folks that flat-out don't like Anthropic, I should note. And that's in part because of their ideals, some of which [stem from the term](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/technology/anthropic-dario-amodei-effective-altruism.html?ref=spyglass.org) which has become the bogeyman of tech: [effective altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective%5Faltruism?ref=spyglass.org). The government perhaps thought they locked up that notion with [Sam Bankman-Fried](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/sam-bankman-fried?ref=spyglass.org), but then Anthropic came roaring into prominence and placement with their superior models and Claude Code. Anyway, a lot of the EA stuff is undoubtedly [FUD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,%5Funcertainty,%5Fand%5Fdoubt?ref=spyglass.org) at this point. It's Anthropic's *actual* rhetoric, as outlined in the many missives of Dario Amodei that is arguably more problematic now. They may have not been asking for this in [this latest particular situation](https://www.techmeme.com/260612/p31?ref=spyglass.org#a260612p31), but they really sort of were [asking for](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) *exactly this* *overall*. And it's turning the strength of the company – their idealistic nature and maximal stances on AI, from Dario on down, which has naturally built up a team of "true believers" [who don't waver](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) when, say, [Mark Zuckerberg comes calling](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) with billion-dollar poaching offers – into [a liability](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/). So I repeat: the real problem is that they don't seem to see the predicaments they're getting themselves into until after it's too late. Or maybe they *do* see some of it and think they're being clever. And how's that working out for them, [being clever](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8%5F5zWIwDjGM&ref=spyglass.org)? Even after getting blacklisted by the Pentagon and [quickly scrambling to de-escalate](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/), they're right back at it, [escalating](https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access?ref=spyglass.org) again. Again, I don't view any of it as nefarious. But they simply don't understand how the world is going to react when, say, they release their Fable model that *secretly sabotages* the abilities of others looking to use Claude for augmenting their own models. On the surface, we can all understand why they did this – they're sick of everyone from Elon Musk on down using Claude to distill to their own competitive offerings. And they undoubtedly also believe such actions can be used by bad actors to create bad models to do bad things. But it's insanity to handle this via subterfuge – certainly when there are legitimate use-cases from academics aiming to study AI or researchers aiming to quantify models, for example. But even if it's just to thwart bad actors, [this is a bad look](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%88%20Anthropic%20Walks%20Back%20Their%20Sabotage%20Strategy) and policy when you're now viewed as the leader in the space – one trying to build a reputation around *trust* and [safety](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) no less! This is all Comms 101 and Strategy 101.[2](#two) And to beat the dead horse, that's the real problem here. It would be one thing if this was a one-off situation, but Anthropic [keeps](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-trump-mythos-fable-national-security?ref=spyglass.org) shooting [themselves](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-blocks-foreign-access-anthropics-most-advanced-ai-models-axios-reports-2026-06-13/?ref=spyglass.org) in the foot over and over again. Because they clearly just can't see the problem with anything that they're doing. Because they obviously think that the fact that they believe they're doing what they're doing *for the right reasons* outweighs anything else. That's just not how the world actually works, sadly. So while I think the public is now viewing this as a sort of classic wrestling ["heel turn"](https://www.dictionary.com/browse/heel-turn?ref=spyglass.org), where the hero becomes the villain – [Harvey Dent](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WfRcnF4iZI&ref=spyglass.org), if you prefer the movie analogy – I actually think this is more like an [Anakin Skywalker](https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Anakin%5FSkywalker?ref=spyglass.org) situation. That is, he turns to the Dark Side for arguably justifiable reasons: to save the life of his wife, Padme, and their unborn child.[3](#three) But he too doesn't fully think through the ramifications and can't think clearly about how such a move is likely to play out. Next thing you know, he's slaughtering young Padawans and battling his master. [HE WAS THE CHOSEN ONE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBAdbxjbTM0&ref=spyglass.org). Which is how I think many viewed Anthropic. Which is why, like Obi-Wan Kenobi, we're so disappointed in the decision-making here. The good news? It's not too late for Anthropic. They just need to wake up to the realities of the real world in which they operate, fast. --- **Update June 15, 2026**: More thoughts around the current battle with the administration... [Regulation for Thee, Not for MeWhy did the Trump administration go nuclear on Anthropic – again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-5ebd6528-e57b-4fa0-9004-ebf00ea22c66.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-15--2026--10_53_00-AM-1-dd85f9f7-0ac0-47b8-8623-efd2b1b57210.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-vs-administration/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-e1ad0eac-b64b-47f2-a859-12c613fdcc15.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3-a333554b-f881-4e20-81a0-753ab878ec24.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [The Casual Catastrophe of AICan the sheer scale of compute fix the world before it breaks it?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-ac651bc5-7d36-4ae1-9823-8c72f4e1102a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--12_57_18-PM-4ec464f8-7d20-4d71-93ba-c51d4e8fec73.png)](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) [When Knees Buckle, then Bend, then BreakOn Anthropic’s war with the Department of War…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-b6b1b7f4-91de-45a7-848c-ce9429f6b58b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/438356-theon-greyjoy-reek-played-alfie-allen-da417527-e64d-4ccf-a06d-aee232d4b9bb.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) --- 1 The rival company from which they were born out of, of course. Because of idealistic differences. Which adds another interesting dynamic to all of this. [↩](#) 2 OpenAI [clearly needed some help on this front too](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/). Really, [all of AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) (and perhaps [all of tech](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/)) does [at the moment](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/)! But again, Anthropic's new front-running position makes this more problematic for them right now. As has [long been](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) [a problem](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/) for OpenAI with their [many stumbles](https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/)! [↩](#) 3 **Spoiler** – lol – twins! [↩](#) ### Inklings #018 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-overkill-anthropic-walks-back-siri-ai-just-works-elons-diamond-hands-apple-tv-is-hbo-openais-rsi-clause-siri-is-not-dtf/ Last updated: 2026-06-15T15:21:30.000Z As the AI frontier models keep improving unabated, a funny thing is happening to the user base. That is, different segments are increasingly looking elsewhere as costs rise and capabilities become more clear. Apple's hybrid approach with Siri AI between on-device and cloud is clearly something we're going to see more of... [The AI Overkill EraAs AI shifts agentic and expensive, might we see more hybrid local/cloud arrangements?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-4b755703-ef68-4ee6-a3ae-806d0f0bd396.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-12--2026--01_51_50-PM-054a4ce5-4fad-4661-927b-f620a6d37c45.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/) 🚀 Happy ****SpaceX IPO** day to those who celebrate... ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **😈** [**Anthropic Walks Back Their Sabotage Strategy**](https://www.wired.com/story/anthropic-responds-to-backlash-on-claudes-secret-sabotage-on-ai-research/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Because we can't go a week without an [AI strategy and comms crisis](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/), after some [major pushback](https://x.com/deanwball/status/2064665679307985244?ref=spyglass.org), Anthropic has decided that, you know what, maybe they *will* *tell* those trying to use their new Fable model for their own training purposes that they can't do that – rather than just quietly undermining their code! Look, we get that they don't want rivals (and potentially bad actors) trying to distill their work, but who thought this strategy would work for a company that is trying to grab the ethical high ground and help with [AI's trust issues](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/)?! Now that Anthropic is seen as the AI front-runner, we should and *they should* expect [even more scrutiny](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) over some of their um, [interesting](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/) [strategies](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) and [comms blunders](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/). Upside: I now have [some Beastie Boys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5rRZdiu1UE&ref=spyglass.org) stuck in my head. And now you do too. **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/anthropic-responds-to-backlash-on-claudes-secret-sabotage-on-ai-research/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🗣️** [**Siri AI Actually Seems To Just Work**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/947432/siri-ai-apple-intelligence-ios-27-wwdc?ref=spyglass.org) **–** The early reviews are in! Well, *previews*. This is just the first of many betas before a roll out – *which will still be in beta* – in the Fall. But these [first impressions](https://x.com/mweinbach/status/2065156441476878476?ref=spyglass.org) seem pretty universally positive across the board. Clearly, the bar was low – perhaps so low so as to be impossible to go under. Most takes seem to be "well, this is simple" or "yeah, other systems have been able to do this for a while" but still... [it works](https://x.com/iupdate/status/2064078761856037112?ref=spyglass.org)! I have Siri AI on two systems currently, a backup MacBook and an old iPad. It's a bit buggy (again, as you'd expect) and slightly slow on the iPad which is several years old. But still, it works! You just couldn't say that really about Siri, and not just in the past couple of years with Apple Intelligence [debacle](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/), but really since Siri first launched [15 years ago](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/). There will obviously be times still where she doesn't work or misfires – and we'll see how she scales – but the hits seem to happen far more often already. It's early, but I've been [impressed](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/). If anything, she might be too cold? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/947432/siri-ai-apple-intelligence-ios-27-wwdc?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💎** [**Elon's Diamond Hands**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/technology/elon-musk-trillionaire.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** A trillion dollars. It's an insane amount of money, obviously. But [as with Hollywood box office results](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/), there's some caveats and context required. First and foremost, [Bill Gates](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/163328874/bill-gates-the-would-have-been-trillionaire?ref=spyglass.org) and [then Jeff Bezos](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/#:~:text=Amazingly%2C%20when%20the%20company%20went%20public%20in%201997%2C%20he%20owned%20over%2043%25.%20Today%2C%2043%25%20of%20Amazon%20would%20be%20worth%20just%20under%20%241T.%20Yes%2C%20with%20diamond%20hands%20%28and%20without%20a%20divorce%29%20he%20would%20be%20the%20world%27s%20first%20trillionaire%20today.%20Remember%2C%20he%20was%20one%20of%20the%20first%20investors%20in%20Google%20too!) would have hit the number first if they had just held on to all of their shares in Microsoft and Amazon, respectively. Instead, they either sold off over time or [in the case of Gates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2025/05/09/bill-gates-would-be-a-trillionaire-if-hed-kept-all-his-microsoft-stock/?ref=spyglass.org), famously gave most of it to charity alongside Warren Buffett. Musk's method is a very uncharitable way to look at things, quite literally. The divorces haven't helped either of course, but Musk has plenty of those too. The difference is that Musk has held (or bought up/been granted more shares) in each of his companies. Diversification is for wimps, [one might say](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/v%5FZFVSgZ8Mk?ref=spyglass.org). Actually, Musk's method of diversification is to start new companies. Whereas almost all of his net worth used to be tied to Tesla, with today's IPO and $2T+ valuation, his 50% stake in SpaceX now dwarfs his other holdings (and he's obviously going to [merge them all at some point anyway](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/)). Bezos is perhaps learning this lesson with [his new](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/hail-hail?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=bvcu&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=Yeah%20I%20mean,%5BNYT%5D) Prometheus AI startup, currently valued just under $30B [and rising fast](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/technology/bezos-prometheus-ai-engineer.html?ref=spyglass.org). But really, while the piece notes that Musk's trillion would now trump John D. Rockefeller's billion back in 1937 in terms of share of US GDP (3% versus 1.5%), globally, Musk controls a mere 0.9% of GDP (honestly, that is maybe the most insane stat). [Augustus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus?ref=spyglass.org) controlled something more like 25% - 30% during his time atop the Roman Empire. [Mansa Musa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa%5FMusa?ref=spyglass.org) may have commanded more during the Mali Empire. Everyone needs goals to aspire to, even Elon. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/technology/elon-musk-trillionaire.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** 📺 [**Apple TV Really is the New (Old) HBO**](https://www.lowpass.cc/p/is-apple-tv-the-new-hbo?ref=spyglass.org) **—** From a quality-perspective, [I’ve been saying](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) this [for years](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2020/10/28/stewart-apple-tv-plus?ref=spyglass.org) at this point, but Janko Roettgers' point here is a slightly different one: that Apple TV is relying on a few tentpole shows to drive their subscriptions and word-of-mouth, just like HBO used to do in the days of cable. But streaming has obviously changed everything, and as a result, Apple TV remains a non-player to the point of still not showing up on overall charts despite some of their high-profile content. [They started with no library](https://500ish.com/hbos-corpus-of-content-and-apple-s-lack-thereof-12fd1d6e858e?ref=spyglass.org), of course, but years later, it’s still *tiny* compared to Netflix and the like. If and when they push into an ad-tier, that’s likely to change. They’ll start licensing more content on top of what they produce. This is inevitable from a [Services-perspective](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) – [because ads are](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/). Because while being the new HBO is nice and the content is for the most part great – big fan of their latest show, [*Widow's Bay*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Widow%27s%5FBay?ref=spyglass.org) – it still isn’t moving many — [if any](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) — needles. There’s some [halo effects](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/), for sure, but Apple is a $4T company. [They missed out on HBO](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/). Maybe they should [buy Disney](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/)? **\[**[**Lowpass**](https://www.lowpass.cc/p/is-apple-tv-the-new-hbo?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... 'Xbox Everywhere' doesn't make sense if Xbox is nowhere... [The Resuscitation of XboxAfter a few months of good will, here comes the hard calls…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-6bc68692-d187-491d-a856-6eb0fd1df917.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-11--2026--07_07_09-PM-701b2537-1afb-4c6b-89d1-d0244314d3b3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-resuscitation-of-xbox/) ### I Quote... > "The faster the potential RSI takeoff looks like it could be, the more it could be advantageous to delay an IPO. Technology and the world may change in surprising ways, and there might be good reasons to be a private company during that time." – **Sam Altman**, [telling OpenAI employees](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/exclusive-openai-preps-new-ai-model-expects-go-public-within-next-year?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) why the company [may not rush to IPO](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,I%20Quote...,-%22It%20may%20be) even with SpaceX now public and Anthropic on the path. There's been a lot written about [that race](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) and while I do think it would have been good for OpenAI to go out before Anthropic for all the [obvious optics and narrative reasons](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/), with that ship [having sailed](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%88%20Anthropic%20Files%20to%20go%20Public), it may actually make more sense to wait. Then the question becomes if they can afford to, quite literally. Given their burn, they'll need to raise money again before achieving profitability – yes, even after [the largest fundraise in history](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/openais-122b-round?ref=spyglass.org) – and the public market is going to give them more avenues to do so. That said, there are tradeoffs, as Altman is alluding to. And given where OpenAI seems to be on the path to profitability versus Anthropic – which is to say, far behind – [there's a world](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%A5%20OpenAI%27s%20Internal%20IPO%20Tension) in which the market punishes OpenAI more than their peers. And that's not a good place to be. [Just ask Snap](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/?ref=dossier-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Can%20Snap%20Cut%20Its%20Way%20To%20Success%3F). Lastly, it's interesting to see [the seemingly coordinated pivot](https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/28/rsi-is-the-new-agi-and-its-just-as-hard-to-pin-down/?ref=spyglass.org) around "RSI" – [recursive self-improvement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org) – as the key talking point in terms of the next big thing in AI. Obviously, it points towards the path to AGI, but all of the labs clearly going to believe it's either the first step, the next step, or the major step. And coming soon – [earlier this week I noted](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/#:~:text=3%EF%B8%8F%E2%83%A3%20OpenAI%27s%20%27Third%20Phase%27) that OpenAI put a very specific date out there: March 2028\. [Anthropic clearly thinks](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/recursive-self-improvement?ref=spyglass.org) we're on the cusp. [Google](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Admits%20Being%20Behind%20in%20AI%20Coding). Etc. ### Asides... - As **SpaceX** gets ready to list, a look back at when **Tesla** went public in **June 2010** – at a $1.7B market cap. Yes a 'B' not a 'T' like today. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/business/spacex-tesla-ipo-elon-musk.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta's** **Manus** [shitshow](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3%20China%20Blocks%20Meta%27s%20Manus%20Deal) continues, as the [companies](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) are being cleaved apart – appropriately, with firewalls put in place – as the buy-back talks [continue](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%99%20Meta%27s%20Reverse%20Hackquisition). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/meta-severs-manus-data-access-after-china-orders-buyout-unwound?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Still unable to sell their GPUs in **China**, it sure looks like **NVIDIA** is gearing up to sell their *CPUs.* (Not the [new PC ones](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) – [at least not yet](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) – but the **Vera** racks for data centers.) **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-begins-vera-cpu-sales-pitch-chinese-clients-sources-say-2026-06-12/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - OpenAI may have NVIDIA as [their data center funding backstop](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8C%20A%20Stargate%20Reborn%20in%20Ohio), so **Anthropic** grabs **Google**, it seems. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-pursues-first-data-center-leases-seeks-financial-backing-google?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Record **ad** buys for the **World Cup** this year despite an advertising slowdown. Why? Companies pushing **AI**, of course. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/48f2f704-74e0-40e0-b657-253d48e657f7?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Not sure how [I'm](https://spyglass.org/is-there-a-ghost-in-my-house/) just hearing about this, but **Amazon** and **BBC** are teaming up to make a series out of **John le Carré's** *The Spy Who Came in from the Cold*. ***Legacy of Spies*** also draws from (and takes its name from) his last George Smiley book before he passed away and has seemingly every British actor cast in it. **\[**[**Telly Visions**](https://www.tellyvisions.org/legacy-of-spies-fills-out-cast-reveals-roles/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Oddly, it seems like it will stream on **MGM+** and *not* **Prime Video**, at least at first. This is the same strategy they're using for the streaming release of [***Project Hail Mary***](https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/) – what?! **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/project-hail-mary-streaming-release-date-1236710500/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Steven Spielberg** asked to direct a **James Bond** movie, *twice*. And was rejected, *twice*. And this was after *Jaws*. And then after *Close Encounters of the Third Kind*. Of course, he's American, a bridge the franchise didn't cross until Cary Joji Fukunaga helmed *No Time to Die* in 2021\. And that was only after Danny Boyle backed out... **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/steven-spielberg-rejected-direct-james-bond-movie-1236619950/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... The look that Apple SVP of Marketing Greg Joswiak gives – *to the camera* – after SVP of Software Craig Federighi [tells Laurie Segall](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoUnUYAFNEU&ref=spyglass.org) that "I don't think the sexy part belongs in your computer, it belongs in your life." is just priceless. A real *Office*\-like moment of breaking the fourth wall. It's the look of a man who knows that what Craig just said it going to launch a [thousand](https://www.theverge.com/tech/948890/siri-wont-be-your-ai-girlfriend?ref=spyglass.org) [headlines](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/06/11/apple-siri-ai-interview/?ref=spyglass.org) [and](https://letsdatascience.com/news/federighi-siri-wont-be-your-ai-girlfriend-e8230e71?ref=spyglass.org) [memes](https://9to5mac.com/2026/06/11/craig-federighi-and-greg-joswiak-talk-siri-ai-and-more-in-new-interview-video/?ref=spyglass.org). I'll spare Apple here, but might I just suggest that were I to write a whole post around this, it might be titled something like: **Siri AI Not DTF**. In all seriousness though, the whole interview for Segall's *Mostly Human* podcast is well worth the watch/listen, a lot of meat in here about Apple's AI mindset. And yes, [it went decidedly better](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) for Federighi and Joz than [last year's showdown with Joanna Stern](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTLk53h7u%5Fk&time%5Fcontinue=17&source%5Fve%5Fpath=MjM4NTE&embeds%5Freferring%5Feuri=https%3A%2F%2Fspyglass.org%2F&ref=spyglass.org). It helps when they have [something to actually talk about](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/)! *Aside: while asked to reflect on his 40th anniversary at Apple (!) Joz gives a nice Michigan shout-out (as both he and Segall are grads). #GoBlue* [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/Screenshot-2026-06-12-at-10.32.14---AM-1.png)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoUnUYAFNEU&ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"Sabotage" by Beastie Boys**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5rRZdiu1UE&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Kernal Table Beer**](https://store.thekernelbrewery.com/products/table-beer-500ml?srsltid=AfmBOooJyy-46%5FZoic2oIya98QVdKp1Fx0xfHgEqyrjUWUPk62A-qmSC&ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### The AI Overkill Era URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-overkill/ Last updated: 2026-06-12T12:53:23.000Z There are a number of narratives the past few weeks that I think you can tie together with the same string. That is, we may be slowly shifting into a world where frontier AI isn't needed for most workflows. I mean, technically that has always been the case. But we're starting to see real action and movement around that notion to turn it into a reality for many. First came the narrative around costs [spiraling out of control](https://fortune.com/2026/05/26/uber-coo-ai-spending-tokens-claude-code/?ref=spyglass.org) at many companies trying to leverage AI in day-to-day operations. Some of this is obviously related to the "[tokenmaxxing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Token%5Fmaxxing?ref=spyglass.org)" trend, but it's also seemingly just around "normal" AI deployment too. With usage growing and the shift towards [consumption-based pricing](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-considers-drastic-price-cuts-anticipating-war-for-users-with-anthropic-9b8c178e?ref=spyglass.org)... Then came [the news of NVIDIA 'RTX Spark' systems](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/). The company's [shift](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) into CPUs for PCs is all about local inference. Why? At least in part to be able to cut AI costs and workloads in the clouds, while also potentially boosting speed if you simply don't need the biggest and best models for everything. Next we saw Apple at WWDC [showcase 'Siri AI'](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) – for real this time – which is heavily predicated around their on-device models. While much was made about the Google Gemini partnership, and rightfully so, the real key may be their routing system which is able to quickly know when to use those local models versus when to call to their models running in the cloud – [Google's Cloud, running NVIDIA chips, no less](https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/#:~:text=%E2%98%81%EF%B8%8F%20Apple%27s%20Models%20in%20Google%27s%20Cloud%20on%20NVIDIA%27s%20Chips). For a lot of Siri queries, you won't need that. And for a lot of your personal content, you may not want that. And if you do need it, Apple may charge you more for it. Speaking of, this week also brought Claude Fable 5 – yes, [Anthropic's 'Mythos' model](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) meant for the masses, at last. Beyond the security concerns, there are major cost concerns too. To the point where Anthropic has a big disclaimer on the model picker that customers will have access to Fable through June 22, at which point it's likely to be an extra-cost add-on. Read: credits will be burned. And the reality here is that Fable is undoubtedly overkill for many "regular" AI workflows. And that's my word to tie all of these things together: it feels like we're entering the Era of AI Overkill. Famous last words and all that, but while everyone has spent the past couple of years debating if and when frontier model development would slow down, the real story may be reaching a sort of equilibrium where end-users (and businesses) are realizing that they simply don't need the latest and greatest model for every task. And certainly, given the rising costs with rising usage, they may not want to pay for the best every time. Again, on paper, this isn't anything new. It's the reason why we've long had the model picker drop-downs within the various AI products. They always implied that maybe you don't need the biggest and best model for your task – and, in fact, this other model may be far faster. But money has a way of talking that time doesn't. If you're telling someone that using this other model will be not just faster, but far *cheaper*, they're more likely to listen. Provided the end result is still good. And again, for many queries/tasks, "good enough" is now just that. Countering this is the ongoing push towards agentic workflows and yes, coding. But as Apple may more clear this week, that's probably not going to be the AI workflows that the masses use any time soon. Over time, sure, agents will continue to creep into our lives. But for a lot of tasks, the on-device agentic work that Apple is offering will be more than enough to surprise and delight the masses. The power users like you and me will undoubtedly continue to use – and pay for – the Claudes and the ChatGPTs at the bleeding edge. But again, it's impossible to argue with free. What will be truly interesting will be watching how enterprises strike this balance. In light of the rising AI bills, do they start to buy up RTX Spark machines to take a lot of AI work offline as it were? ["Unmetered intelligence"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmp9mppvzro?ref=spyglass.org) is a term that Microsoft and others would really like to make happen. Spending a few thousand dollars up-front versus tens or hundreds of thousands per employee over time is obviously a pretty easy equation. Again, provided the output is still good! Do we enter a world of 'have and have-nots' in business where the biggest businesses pay up for the frontier AI all the time while smaller businesses "settle" for cheaper AI? Hybridization seems inevitable here as well. And that will require good routing systems to know what should be done locally, for free, versus what needs to be handled at the frontier in the cloud. The buzzword you're actually looking for here is "[orchestration](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-orchestration?ref=spyglass.org)", again, not new. But it will be increasingly important. Not just to route between different models from different providers, and different models from the same provider, but also local versus cloud models. How the model makers themselves handle this will also be interesting to watch. Obviously they've been trying to take on more of the work of picking the right model for you, but this has also prompted some [backlash and backtracking](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/). At the same time, it was never going to be tenable to have [a Microsoft Office-like toolbar system](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) of drop-downs, and instead, most people will want what Apple is now offering with Siri AI: one prompt box to rule them all. Yes, yes, here too power users will want to decide and pick their own. But also undoubtedly not always. It's just far too big of a cognitive burden to have to think about which model you want to use for each query or task. And as workflows move [more towards audio](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) and perhaps to [different types of AI devices](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/), the UI to handle such model picking quickly goes away out of necessity. And as agentic workflows become more automated, the system will necessarily need to pick the right models for your task. Interestingly, while much of this work *started local* [with OpenClaw](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) and the like, this will probably increasingly move the other way: to the cloud as more devices get incorporated into such workflows. But there still might be a home "hub" for local model work to save cost/time? [Even if it's a smartphone?](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) Again, if nothing else, people may feel more comfortable running their personal information locally. Certainly Apple believes this! And going forward, does our [personal AI morph into our professional AI](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/), or do they stay fully separate? Anyway, yes, it's fun to try Fable to see if it can answer "who let the dogs out?", but it's also increasingly insanely expensive and stupid to do that. I mean, it was always stupid to do that. But now money talks. And barks back. As we enter the Era of AI Overkill, are the cheaper and local models ready to answer the call? And is the orchestration layer ready to route to them? ### The Resuscitation of Xbox URL: https://spyglass.org/the-resuscitation-of-xbox/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T12:39:32.000Z I'm not sure it's entirely fair, but it's right there: if [the new leadership of Xbox](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) just wrapped up their 'Charm Offensive', the next phase looks to be the 'Harm Offensive'. While Asha Sharma and team [spent](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B9%EF%B8%8F%20A%20Quick%20Vibe%20Shift%20at%20Xbox) their first 100 days [rejuvenating](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-luddites-an-elon-openai-verdict-big-techs-emissary-movement-apples-dinged-can-strategy-siri-heads-back-to-beta-the-great-sf-ai-divide/#:~:text=With%20work%20still%20underway%20to%20make%20it%20great%20again%2C%20Microsoft%20has%20seemingly%20officially%20made%20Xbox%20%27XBOX%27%20again.%20%5BVerge%5D) the XBOX brand, killing off AI, [dropping](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%B9%20Cleaning%20Up%20the%20Xbox%20Game%20Pass%20Mess) subscription prices, [restoring](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/#:~:text=%5BTHR%5D-,I%20Spy...,-With%20new%20leadership) exclusives, bringing on [talent](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=Xbox%2C%20sorry%20XBOX%2C%20keeps%20making%20fast%2C%20smart%20moves%20to%20save%20the%20business%2C%20bringing%20on%20Matthew%20Ball%20and%20Scott%20Van%20Vliet.%20%5BVerge%5D), retro green translucent anniversary [consoles](https://www.theverge.com/news/945359/microsoft-xbox-25th-anniversary-console-controller-release-date?ref=spyglass.org), an Oprah moment! Yeah, these [next 100](https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/06/10/next-100-days-xbox-reset/?ref=spyglass.org) are going to be significantly tougher. Including, it seems, [mass layoffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-10/xbox-plans-significant-layoffs-as-it-transforms-under-new-ceo-asha-sharma?ref=spyglass.org)... It's harsh, but I also think it's a sound strategy. You want to give consumers hope that you've heard what the problems are and to showcase that you intend to change them, instantly in some cases. At the same time, there are very real structural and business problems in the division, which is going to require some drastic actions to help course-correct. If you launch those first, it's just going to fuel the fear, uncertainty, and doubt about the entire endeavor. So you start with the carrots before switching to sticks... During said charm offensive, [I noted](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2063738754322387458?ref=spyglass.org) that Sharma's fast, big moves reminded me of the early days of her boss, Satya Nadella, [when he took over](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) the larger Microsoft org a dozen years ago. One of his very first moves was to announce Office for iPad. Obviously, it had been in the works for some time – hence it being ready to be shown off – but the key was the symbolism of the move. It signaled a new day and era for Microsoft. After Steve Ballmer's "lost decade" of mostly [milking profits](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) from Windows, the company was ready to change and reorient itself to move forward. Sharma's moves were arguably more dramatic, because she was rapidly retconning a lot of what Phil Spencer and team had spent the past several years putting in place. Of course, that's also fairly easy to do when none of that stuff was working. And [Sharma's 'Next 100 Days' memo](https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2026/06/10/next-100-days-xbox-reset/?ref=spyglass.org) outlines just how dire things are: > We will end this fiscal year at about a 3% accountability margin, down year-over-year. Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform, and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue. Yes, that's *aside from* the nearly *$70B* spent on Activision Blizzard. And that's important to note because that deal was masking the growing disaster within Xbox. The core was no longer working, Microsoft was buying revenue to mask it. Sharma ripped the mask off. "Going forward, this cannot continue." [Earlier this week](https://fortune.com/2026/06/09/not-an-allbirds-moment-xboxs-ceo-says-she-is-grounding-the-console-in-gaming-roots/?ref=spyglass.org), she was noting that her job, first and foremost, was to build Xbox back into a leading entertainment company. [Just last week](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xjSFDE7Pps&t=3852s&ref=spyglass.org), she was specifically noting that her job [wasn't about the margins](https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox-ceo-my-mandate-is-not-30-percent-accountability-margins-its-to-be-the-number-one?ref=spyglass.org) – something which Nadella and Microsoft CFO Amy Hood were clearly pushing the division on previously. But as this memo showcases, it is also still about the margins. Xbox isn't a charity, it needs to be sustainable, as [Nadella has made clear](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/technology/microsoft-satya-nadella-artificial-intelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org). Part of that, unfortunately, means layoffs. And part of it means backtracking from [the weird, piecemeal strategy](https://spyglass.org/exbox/) put in place by Sharma's predecessors. 'Xbox Everywhere' doesn't make sense if Xbox is nowhere. And while I think it's fine to do some level of cross-promotion and pollination of older games and/or IP to other platforms, [the goal obviously](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/) has to be to bring more people back to Xbox, not to make it so that no one needs to buy an Xbox. As such, exclusives are [back on the menu](https://www.theverge.com/report/945639/xbox-exclusives-strategy-complicated-confusing?ref=spyglass.org). Which also means ripping off some band-aids with your would-be awkward partners like Sony. Sorry, we're no longer going to be feeding you so that you can kill us even faster. In a way, I'm reminded a bit of another famous tech CEO coming in: Steve Jobs. When Jobs came back to Apple in early 1997, the company was obviously in bad shape. Infamously close to death. One of the first orders of business was massive layoffs – executed by then-CEO Gil Amelio, before he himself was executed and Jobs was officially elevated into his famous 'iCEO' role. Jobs too had a sea-change moment like Nadella, albeit in reverse, by striking a deal with Microsoft to ensure that Office would continue to be supported on the Mac. Everyone remembers the equity investment, but this was the key to that deal. Well, and Bill Gates showing up on screen behind Jobs during his keynote at Macworld in Boston. While the "Big Brother" vibes are humorous today, this moment also signaled a new era at Apple and a path forward, "for Apple to win, Microsoft doesn't have to lose". 17 years later, Nadella had the same message in reverse. Sorry, I've gotten a bit lost in the nostalgia here. My point is that after these moves, Jobs also acted fast to cut the product lines – perhaps most notably, killing off the Mac clones. One can't help but see parallels here between Xbox putting their titles on other systems and the Mac clones. On paper, it sounds like expanding the addressable market and getting paid to do so. In practice, it nearly destroyed the soul of Apple and perhaps was doing the same to Xbox. Yes, I just compared Sharma's early efforts at Xbox to the magic of both Satya Nadella and Steve Jobs. That's unfair – to them and to her. It's early – just 100 days! – we'll see where this goes. But certainly her first moves have been impressive and have completely transformed the vibes around the brand in short order.[1](#one) But now comes the hard part. The layoffs and getting the business actually in order. While the strategy sucked, Xbox also got blindsided by component prices – of course, fueled in part by Microsoft's own role in [the AI arms race](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/)... That perhaps puts 'Project Helix' – the next Xbox – in jeopardy, or maybe just makes it [more likely](https://www.thegamebusiness.com/p/matthew-ball-on-exclusives-turning?hide%5Fintro%5Fpopup=true&ref=spyglass.org) that they rely more on third party manufacturers for the hardware. Uh oh, that sounds a lot like Xbox Clones... What's the plan for Game Pass? [Mysterious new business models](https://www.theverge.com/news/947537/microsoft-xbox-console-hardware-price-changes-ramageddon?ref=spyglass.org)? How long until they spin out Activision Blizzard? Speaking of disastrous massive acquisitions... While Ballmer handed Nadella a range of issues – cough, Nokia, cough – Microsoft's underlying business remained in great shape. Xbox's business is perhaps more like Apple's back when Steve Jobs came back: on the brink. The big difference, of course, is that Xbox is under Microsoft. So it's sort of a hybrid of those two situations. Xbox is not going to die tomorrow, but they still need to figure out the correct path forward to be viable. A bunch of good will has [seemingly been restored](https://x.com/k1rallik/status/2063720061064401084?s=20&ref=spyglass.org), fast. A smart move ahead of some major, but necessary hard calls. A full spin-off? Hang on... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- **Update June 13, 2026**: [A new report by Aaron Holmes for *The Information* notes](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-considered-spinning-xbox-plans-new-halo-fallout-games?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) that Microsoft is weighing making Xbox into its own, wholly-owned company under the parent, much like they have with LinkedIn and GitHub (two companies they acquired, of course). But the bigger option: spinning the unit off entirely... --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [ExboxMicrosoft will do one last Xbox push, but there’s probably not a longer path forward – unless AI saves the day; not in the way you think!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-942028e0-e32d-4a75-b980-ac12800603c5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-24--2026--12_08_46-PM-817b6c9d-245d-4632-94f1-15e316cd5e6c.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) [Microsoft’s Halo MaryIt’s starting to feel like Xbox is dead, and Microsoft’s pricey gaming buys were huge blunders…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-ccfa344c-8590-402e-a4f0-bbd5e431d497.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-25--2025--09_35_00-PM-8779d760-72b9-4b2e-b6dd-dd43f6bf9701.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/) [Xbox (Every) Where?The Verge had at least four articles focused on Microsoft’s Xbox announcement last week – there’s a joke in here somewhere about one for each of the whopping four games they’re bringing to other consoles – and upon reading each one, I still can’t quite parse what on![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-903bf338-f64c-470e-b8ab-222a00a85ba8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Xbox-Console-with-Duke-59df665c-888f-45c6-bef9-c4559197d9b6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/exbox/) --- 1 Especially when you consider that [she was thought to be the assassin sent by Microsoft to terminate Xbox](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/188635789/ex-marks-the-box?ref=spyglass.org). Perhaps death by AI, was the general feared given her previous role. Good on her for quickly changing that narrative. [↩](#) ### Inklings #017 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-social-reckoning-apples-models-on-nvidia-chips-no-siri-ai-for-eu-openais-ipo/ Last updated: 2026-06-12T07:23:23.000Z The [trailer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM4LkaXwGuY&ref=spyglass.org) just hit so the take is especially hot, but I'm [fairly](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2064711759647097280?ref=spyglass.org) concerned about where *The Social Reckoning* – the sequel/"companion" to *The Social Network* – is going to go. I'm worried no one was around to check some of Aaron Sorkin's worst instincts that often surface in some of his more charged work. And this [seems to be](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/166970418/the-social-network-part-ii?ref=spyglass.org) *especially* charged. I'm mildly surprised he didn't title this "Fuck Facebook". Truly great voice work out of Jeremy Strong though. Will it be enough to make us [forget Jesse Eisenberg](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/down-bad?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=169817351&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=Just%20yesterday%2C,%5BTHR%5D)? And a nice call-back to the original's soundtrack in the title card – ruined by "she's disrupting". Some interesting wardrobe choices too... Aside: where's the trailer for [*Artificial*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial%5F%28upcoming%5Ffilm%29?ref=spyglass.org) – aka the OpenAI movie, which wrapped filming months ago?! ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **☁️** [**Apple's Models in Google's Cloud on NVIDIA's Chips**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/08/apple-google-nvidia-ai-chips.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** The biggest surprise out of WWDC may have been the [acknowledgement](https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/introducing-third-generation-of-apple-foundation-models?ref=spyglass.org) by Apple that they're not only using Google Cloud to run their larger models (i.e. those that can't fit on device), but that they're doing so *on NVIDIA chips* ([which had been rumored](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Apple%27s%20Local%20AI%20Dreams), but no one expected Apple to confirm directly). This is sort of wild both because Apple and NVIDIA have a [contentious history](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) going back years. Something which may or may not have [played a role](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) in Apple not getting into the AI arms races to begin with... But also because given the Google partnership [already in place](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/), why not just use TPUs? Especially since Apple went out of their way to train their models on TPUs – again, bypassing NVIDIA GPUs – [in the past](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/). This new set up is clearly about inference, but still, Google has TPUs built just for that! The answer seems to be in a feature called 'Nvidia Confidential Computing' and "ambiguous confidential compute" which Apple specifically called out in their Q&A after the keynote. Clearly, this was the way Apple felt most comfortable extending their Private Cloud Compute initiative (and branding) beyond their own servers. And it's a nice way to diversify a bit from the pure Google reliance, I suppose. Still, you can bet Apple would prefer to do this all on their own servers with their own chips. [Perhaps someday](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/)... For now, [another](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) Big Tech AI Infinity Stone for Jensen. **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/08/apple-google-nvidia-ai-chips.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🇪🇺** [**No Siri AI for EU**](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/06/08/siri-ai-not-available-eu-china/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Perhaps the most unintentionally funny moment of the WWDC keynote was when Craig Federighi was trying to keep a straight face while announcing during his walk & talk that sadly, *all of the new AI features that Apple had just unveiled would not be coming to the EU at this time*. Why? The DMA of course. No one will be [surprised](https://spyglass.org/tag/eu/) that I side firmly with Apple here because it's both ridiculous to think that a government body should *pre*\-regulate product feature development, but also because in this particular matter, the entire world is currently worried about [the AI security nightmares](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) starting to happen while acknowledging that they're completely unprepared for what is to come. Meanwhile, the EU would seemingly like to pour gasoline on such concerns. Obviously, that's not their intent but they're also obviously not smart enough – *years* into the DMA – to recognize what the second-order effects might be of say, allowing any AI provider to have deep and full access to all the content of your iPhone. EU to OpenClaw: [hold my lobster](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/). So while EU politicians [think they look great](https://x.com/EC%5FAVService/status/2064367603573764262?ref=spyglass.org) as the competition police [standing up to Apple](https://www.reuters.com/business/apple-failed-make-its-ai-tool-comply-eu-regulations-eu-commission-says-2026-06-09/?ref=spyglass.org), I just see a bunch of smug, naive fire starters. The bloc is constantly complaining that they don't have their own tech companies to rival those from America and Asia and yet [they can't quite understand](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-clown-town/) why [that might be](https://spyglass.org/eu-no-tech-zone/). Or worse, they do, but they'd rather take some lame political victory laps without realizing that they're running backwards and [taking 450M people with them](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/09/business/apple-siri-ai-europe.html?ref=spyglass.org). (China is another matter, of course, which will now fall firmly at the feet of Tim Cook in [his new ambassador-in-chief role](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) at Apple.) I'm sure this blurb will inspire those living with acute cases of [Stockholm syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm%5Fsyndrome?ref=spyglass.org) in Europe to [respond](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2064047726178738620?ref=spyglass.org) conveying their happiness in regulation slavery. May you [enjoy the pop-ups](https://spyglass.org/europe-cookie-banners/) forever and ever. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/06/08/siri-ai-not-available-eu-china/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📽️** [**'Scary Movie' Screams, 'Masters of the Universe' Bombs**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/07/business/media/scary-movie-politically-incorrect-humor.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** This latest box office battle seems quite different on the surface than [the whole *Backrooms*/*Obsession* phenomenon](https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/). But actually, it may not be all that different. While by most accounts *Masters* is actually pretty good and *Scary* is actually pretty bad, one key driver here may have been demographics once again. That is, a younger group had nostalgia for the *Scary Movie* franchise, which is about 20 to 25 years old, while the *Masters* nostalgia is calling back more like 40 years. One cohort showed up, the other didn't. There are other audience variables as well here – horror movies, pure satire, R-rated, anti-woke stuff, black audiences, etc – still, it feels like we're going to see a fast shift to cater to those younger demographics since the olds seem to being staying home. Personally, I'm right in the *Masters* demo – it was my favorite toy and cartoon when I was a kid – as I've somewhat embarrassingly [written about](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/talk-to-the-pin-or-pen-or-pendant?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7i-spy) [a](https://spyglass.org/feeding-the-beast/#:~:text=He%2DMan%20has%20been%20cast%20for%20a%20new%20live%2Daction%20Masters%20of%20the%20Universe%20movie%2C%20oddly%2C%20the%20article%20makes%20no%20mention%20of%20the%20old%20movie%2C%20which%20made%20Dolph%20Lundgren%20a%20large%20part%20of%20my%20childhood%20%28well%2C%20alongside%20his%20role%20in%20Rocky%20IV%29.%20Will%20it%20be%20the%20Barbie%20of%202026%3F) [number](https://spyglass.org/where-to-watch-works/#:~:text=The%20casting%20for,%5BTHR%5D) [of times](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org)! So I rushed out to see the movie, right? Well, no. I want to, but well, now I have kids! And I suspect a lot of the *Masters* demo is in that boat too – it's just a lot of time and effort (and money) to coordinate going to a movie that solely for my enjoyment. (The flipside: I suspect [streaming will salvage this one as well](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/) for Amazon.) That said, I did take my oldest to go see *The Mandalorian and Grogu*, but in week three of release for similar reasons. We liked it! But not something we needed to rush out to see... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/07/business/media/scary-movie-politically-incorrect-humor.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... [Big Tech Conference SeasonA chat about Google I/O, WWDC, Meta’s business model, and Anthropic’s IPO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-435cf42d-54c1-46d4-9fe3-3994679bdd8a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-10--2026--04_35_24-PM-1-2bf3d011-363b-44ac-992f-778089466018.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-conference-season/) ### I Quote... > "It may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of trade-offs, and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best." – **OpenAI's** official statement [given to *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/technology/openai-ipo.html?ref=spyglass.org) alongside the news that they had confidentially filed for an IPO. Normally, such events are a cause for celebration, but this must be the most timid such announcement of all time. It obviously suggests that the company doesn't actually intend to go public any time soon and clearly would prefer not to. But they've been sort of backed into a corner by their main rival, [Anthropic, filing](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%88%20Anthropic%20Files%20to%20go%20Public). And if the IPO of another rival, xAI (by way of SpaceX) founded by one of their co-founders (who just got done suing them), [goes well](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/), it might be the most prudent thing to tap the market now before any such window comes [crashing closed](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/). At the same time, the best thing for OpenAI to do may be to wait a bit, to distance themselves from Anthropic which will clearly be going out with better metrics, certainly on the business-front. And perhaps to [give them time](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) to [morph the products](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) and get [the ads business working and built out](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/). It's a very complicated tension, [obviously](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/). --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's 'Third Phase'** ****• A Stargate Reborn in Ohio** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Big Tech Conference Season URL: https://spyglass.org/big-tech-conference-season/ Last updated: 2026-06-10T15:53:41.000Z In the midst of Big Tech conference season, Alex Kantrowitz and I used [our monthly discussion](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) on his [*Big Technology*](https://www.bigtechnology.com/?ref=spyglass.org) *Podcast* to mainly go over Google I/O and preview WWDC. ### Google I/O Basically, [it felt like I/O underwhelmed](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) because it centered around a lot of stuff that wasn't ready to roll – namely, their new flagship model, Gemini 3.5 Pro. But there wasn't a risk this would be like Apple two years ago at WWDC with [vaporware](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) galore, it was more just strange to have a big event with many of your announcements not yet ready. Perhaps it's time to re-think such events in the Age of AI as the cadence of releases is just different, clearly. Alex is worried that Google is once again falling behind in AI, and Sundar Pichai [sort of admitted as much](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Admits%20Being%20Behind%20in%20AI%20Coding) at least when it comes to the all-important coding capabilities at the moment. This matters because it could be the key to powerful agents and perhaps even AGI eventually thanks to [recursive self-improvement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org). I mean, Google doesn't even have [a "Super App" yet](https://spyglass.org/super-app/). What are they doing? The answer seems to be working on "Omni Models" – read: ["World Models"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/). But those too aren't quite ready to roll, so... Instead, we got a lot of updates to Google Search, which are interesting, but there's a real concern that Google won't be able to fully push into uncharted AI territory because of their myriad legacy products. Is the PM on Gmail going to let their product die in favor of Gemini simply doing email [on your behalf](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/)? No. While Google has done an incredible job [righting there ship](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) after the Bard [stumbles out of the AI gate](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/), Big Company issues will always persist on some level... ### WWDC Meanwhile, with WWDC also [now in the rearview](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/), our preview and discussion seems to hold up well. I noted we weren't likely to see any hardware and that a lot of people would view the event as underwhelming because it would basically be a do-over – [or mulligan](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/) – of the WWDC AI promises [from two years ago](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/). I was curious how they would play up (or not) [the new Google partnership](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/), and to the surprise of many, it did get a nice, juicy mention during the keynote. As did Visual Intelligence, which [may be the key](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) to Apple's AI future [on the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) and beyond. For now though, it will be [more about voice](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/), which again, the keynote made clear. Alex is very interested in the iPhone Fold/Ultra and while I didn't think there was any chance they'd show that off early – which they didn't, the first betas of iOS 27 *do* actually give some [major hints](https://9to5mac.com/2026/06/08/apple-leaks-foldable-iphone-references-in-ios-27-beta/?ref=spyglass.org) about it in the code. But we'll have to wait until early September for John Ternus' first keynote to actually see and hear about the device and it's perhaps [funky new form-factor](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/). Maybe the most wild part of the entire show is that *Ternus wasn't a part of it, at all*! Instead, Tim Cook signed off [one final time](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) with a nice message. So if Ternus is going to [pull a Satya Nadella](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) and do something big to signal [the start of his era](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) – like, say, *changing the App Store fees*? – that will have to wait until the Fall as well. ### Meta+ For the last segment, we talked a bit about [Meta's messy new premium tiers](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/) for their social networks and what the strategy is here (hint: operation diversify from their ads business, which is 98% of Meta's revenues, as we move towards the AI future). Will they actually roll out [some sort of cloud offering](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) as Mark Zuckerberg has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/mark-zuckerberg-says-meta-starting-cloud-business-on-the-table.html?ref=spyglass.org), or was that simply to throw Wall Street a bone amidst all the [continued CapEx](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/)? I mean, if SpaceX is [now a "neocloud"](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/)... ### One More Thing... But wait, there was *one more thing* for us as well. While we were recording, [news broke](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%88%20Anthropic%20Files%20to%20go%20Public) that Anthropic had filed confidentially to go public. This was a legitimate surprise since the word has already leaked out that [OpenAI was about to file](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/), but their rival beat them to the punch! And that's potentially a big problem for OpenAI as it makes for [a very tricky narrative](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) on their own would-be roadshow. They're now behind in both top-line and bottom-line numbers versus Anthropic, and Google has pulled even in terms of Gemini monthly active users. Maybe the SpaceX listing [goes so well](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) that it raises all AI boats, as it were.[1](#one) But we're a long way from when Anthropic and/or OpenAI would list. [A lot can happen](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) between now and then. We'll see! --- 1 While we did talk about inclusion in the indicies almost immediately boosting these stocks, I did note that "maybe not the S&P 500" – and sure enough, [they later rejected](https://spyglass.org/inklings-s-p-500-maintains-rules-surface-nvidia-rtx-hands-on-microsofts-project-solara-mlb-salary-cap-big-tech-renewing-their-ipos-government-stakes-in-big-ai-anthropics-ai-development-/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9A%AA%20S%26P%20500%20Holds%20the%20Door) the notion of fast-tracking companies for inclusion (which is a good call). [↩](#) ### Apple Wins Consumer AI By Default URL: https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T12:39:07.000Z From a pure AI perspective, nothing Apple showcased during their WWDC keynote yesterday was particularly groundbreaking. In fact, much of it featured capabilities long since available in other AI tools and services – in some cases, *years ago*. And guess what? That doesn't matter. Based on what we saw yesterday, Apple is set to win in AI. At least from a consumer perspective. I know how crazy this sounds. It's not just that Apple has been viewed as behind in AI for the past few years, it's that they've been more or less a laughingstock given how they tried to roll out 'Apple Intelligence'[ two years ago](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) and failed to the point of [settling lawsuits](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=Apple%20has%20agreed%20to%20pay%20%24250M%20for%20their%20vaporware%20AI%20ads.%20If%20you%20bought%20an%20iPhone%20that%20Bella%20Ramsey%20promised%20you%20would%20remind%20you%20of%20someone%27s%20name%20in%20a%20pinch%2C%20you%20could%20get%20up%20to%20%2495%20back.%20%5BNYT%5D) around false advertising. But if Apple is actually able to roll out what they showcased yesterday – I'll get to the caveats below – and there's reason to believe they can this time, they're about to infuriate many people and companies across a wide swath of industries. That's because Apple seems on the verge of doing what they always do: watching new products and services come about and then jumping in later with a better user experience to win the day. This annoys people because... they can't just do that! So and so was doing this long ago! FIRST! This is old! BORING! Lame. THEY CAN'T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS! We saw it all on display in response to the keynote yesterday. And Wall Street seemed to agree with the angry mobs, sending the stock down in after-hours trading. I'm here to tell you that none of that matters. Apple Intelligence and the new 'Siri AI' may seem underwhelming to those who live at the bleeding edge of AI. But 99% of people don't live there. And even more actually don't *want* to live there, but feel the need to in some ways lest they feel like they're being left behind in our Age of AI. If ChatGPT showed AI [to the masses](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/), Apple is set to bring usage mainstream. I understood this immediately when I saw Apple's VP of Siri Engineering, Mike Rockwell – [the man tasked with fixing Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) – do his demo during the keynote. It was simple and natural and that was the point. All he was doing was holding down the Side Button (maybe they should rename it to the Siri Button?) and talking to Siri AI. He didn't have to load up Terminal. He didn't have to download some coding app. He didn't have to download any app. Right out of the iPhone box, Siri AI will just work. Well, provided Siri works, of course. That's why this demo was key. While it wasn't live – and it would have obviously been more effective were it [*truly live, on-stage*](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-event-too-long/) – it was clearly shot in real-time. There were slight delays here and there that weren't edited out. This was obviously intentional on Apple's part, to show you that unlike say, two years ago, [this isn't vaporware](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/). This is Siri actually doing things. Things she was previously not capable of doing. Again, much of it wasn't particularly impressive from a pure AI perspective. But context matters – here, quite literally. This was always [the promise of Apple Intelligence](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/), that Apple would be able to pull in all the iPhone knows about you to handle any query and augment that with "world knowledge". Apple was unable to do that two years ago, but now Google is here to save the day. The fact that they got an actual shout-out tells you just how vital they are to this effort. Yes, Apple "distilled" Gemini to make their own, new "Apple Foundation Models", but it's the heavy-lifting that Google did in training these models which is going to make this all sing for Apple this time. So why not just use Gemini? After all, there's an app for that. Well, you could and many will. But many more will not simply because Siri is baked in at the system level. This gives it capabilities no other AI service can match – at least until regulators try to force Apple to give others such access. But even if and when that happens, years down the line, the power will remain in the default. In not having to download and open an app, but in simply needing to hold down a button or saying "Siri" and everything just working. Back to Rockwell's demo, [the key to me](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2064040932253589965?ref=spyglass.org) was that the entire thing was done vocally. Certainly part of that is because it makes for a better demo than typing, but it's also likely how a lot of people are going to start using Siri AI. I say that because it's the way I interact with AI much of the time already. Perhaps I'm biased, but I also see the way my children have used Alexa and the like for years. They're growing up learning to use computers in more "natural" ways – not with a mouse and keyboard, but with touch and voice. Obviously there are going to be times when you don't want to or can't use voice, but I highly suspect it's going to become the go-to way to interact with AI [for many use-cases](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/). And that's why we're about to see a rush of [new devices](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) hit the market focused on that interaction model. But just as we learned about cameras when the iPhone launched nearly 20 years ago, the best AI device is going to be the one you have on you. And at least for the foreseeable future, [that's the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/). That's what these demos were about yesterday. The iPhone is now an AI device. And so is the iPad. And the Mac. And Apple Watch. Even the Vision Pro. [Soon, AirPods](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/). And a few other devices that Apple is [clearly cooking up](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/). And yes, Meta and others are already in the market with such devices, but they don't have the iPhone. But they still need the iPhone. [And that's a problem](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/). It will be a bigger one once Apple rolls out Siri AI. Only Google and perhaps Samsung can meet Apple on the battlefield here thanks to their own smartphones. But while Google controls Gemini itself, they're going to have a hard time matching the product experience on every device beyond their own Pixel phones. And those hold a tiny sliver of the market. Google probably *should* aim to make the Pixel devices bigger to match Apple here – and perhaps their partnership will illuminate that opportunity, not unlike those early days of the iPhone. But that will involve complicated trade-offs with the broader Android ecosystem, including, yes, Samsung. This is Apple leveraging their fully-integrated approach once again. The surprise is that they're seemingly able to do it without building their own frontier models from scratch. But they've perhaps lucked into a market where competition abounds and so Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic [all want to compete](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) for their business. They might suggest they didn't want that business [now that Google won it](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/), but obviously they do. [Who would](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) turn down access to billions of highly engaged, active, and lucrative users? Down the road, it's inevitable that Apple will have to do more on their own. Again, Google may force this issue once they shift focus as they always inevitably do. And we may be at the point where LLMs matter less than ["World Models"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) at that point. But for right now, Apple did exactly what they need to do in order to "catch up". Again, that doesn't mean they'll be at full parity with everything that Anthropic, or OpenAI, or even Google can do with their AI at the moment. But for the masses, for Apple's purposes, most of that won't matter. It will only matter if one of those players has a true product and/or consumer use-case breakthrough. And of those players, [OpenAI was the best at creating those](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/). But now they're [reorienting](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) their business around coding and enterprise use-cases. Because as Anthropic quickly showed everyone, that's where the money is. But that's not where the money is for Apple. Their money is in selling devices which in turn leads to them selling services. There will be some level of AI upsell here with iCloud+, but it won't be to the same extent as the other AI players. And while never-say-never [with ads](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/), you can probably forget about those anytime soon for Apple too. That's in part because a huge part of Apple's pitch here is privacy. To the point where Apple was fine taking shots at their partners during the keynote, noting, for example, that while other web browsers with AI "track your every move" – I wonder who makes the most popular web browser in the world [with AI now baked-in](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/)... — Apple will not do that. But the biggest direct shot came early on from Craig Federighi: "Still, some appear to be racing forward, seemingly pursuing AI for the sake of AI. Without regard for the people, all of us, that it’s ultimately meant to serve." Gee, wonder who he could mean by that... Perhaps Apple's big AI partner from two years ago? The one, it should be noted, [currently considering legal action](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/) against Apple over the failures and shortcomings of that partnership... AI's [perception issues](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) are also an angle Apple is going to heavily hit upon because Apple has [a level of consumer trust](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) that basically no other tech company enjoys. And in an age when the world – and the US in particular – [is worried about](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) where AI is about to take us and perhaps displace us, Apple can offer a more credible story of simply leveraging the technology as a tool [for humans to use](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/). To that end, while everyone is busy chasing down the promise of agents, bulking up their offerings [into "super apps"](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) so as to route such work through the desktop, Apple just showed off an agent fully running on a phone. Or an iPad. Or a Mac. All pulled together via their own new app called, [wait for it: Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/). Not a super app, in fact, just a super simple app.[1](#one) A way to collect and continue your AI workflows across devices. But one that is also not necessary because Siri lives right there, in your Dynamic Island (or Spotlight on the Mac), always ready. It can see your screen in ways that would require about 15 different levels of permission with Claude. Which is, of course, *a good thing* to protect users from themselves – something which will undoubtedly be one of the key lessons [from the OpenClaw movement](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/). But again, Apple has a level of trust that others can't match. And a device base that others can't touch. That's going to turn Visual Intelligence into perhaps the most profound shift in all of this. It frankly [already should have been the case](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/), but Apple buried it previously. Now it's going to be front-and-center in the most-used app for many people: **Camera**. It points to a future where wearables don't just augment our reality visually, but they do so with information without the need to pull out your phone. Yes, Meta is already headed there, and others, [including Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/), are soon to join, but it seems like we're not quite there yet. For now, it's a great use case for the iPhone camera and a fun demo for the Vision Pro. All of this adds up to a world in which Apple seizes control of consumer AI. Well, unless you're in the EU – enjoy the regulations! Or in China – enjoy the oversight! But also in those places too, eventually. ### If It Works... Having said all that, it's caveat time. [In my preview yesterday](https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/), I called back to the famous Steve Jobs "it just works" saying and while watching the keynote, I was quick to append a new variation ["if it works"](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2064045023117660631?ref=spyglass.org) to many of my live-tweets. It's funny, but necessary! Basically all of the above was also true two years ago when Apple Intelligence was first unveiled. But it ended up only being true on paper, of course. It's possible that the same thing happens this time, but you have to believe there's no way in hell that Apple moves forward with *devoting 45 minutes of their 1 hour 15 minute keynote* *to AI* if they're not confident this time. The bigger issue may be that Siri AI doesn't fail to launch, but just isn't very good upon launch. Here, we can look back upon the past 15 years of Siri. [Every year we've been promised](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) that Siri is getting better. And while that may have been true in small ways, relative to the state of the art, first with Alexa and now certainly with the LLMs, Siri has been made to look worse relatively speaking, every year. Again, I believe Google's involvement is what breaks this cycle. But there are a lot of questions there still. What happens if/when Gemini is constantly updated? Does Apple need to re-distill each time? Do they update their models on their own apart from Google? Do we need a full software update to update the models given how much is apparently going to run locally?! All of this would suggest a company that [still may not be quite ready to operate in the Age of AI](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/), where the state of the art changes constantly. The good news is that increasingly, most day-to-day usage won't require the state of the art. And, in fact, it increasingly may prove too expensive to use the state of the art for most tasks. Again, Apple's timing could be good here. But we won't know that for sure until Siri AI is out in the wild and competing with say, [Mythos](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/). Then again, I'm not sure how much they will actually compete. There will always be the AI power users – of which I'll certainly be one – but most users will not be AI power users. They'll be content to use the default, provided the default is good enough. But that's underselling Apple here since it's really about having a good enough base layer for things like world knowledge mixed with the contextual stuff around your personal data that only they can do. While it sounds simple, this complexity is not easy. It's entirely possible that we see a world where most iPhone users use Siri AI for, say, 80% of their AI needs and then [pick another model/service](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/) for the other 20%. Or maybe it's even more granular, with two or more other AI services filling in specific niches. Again, we'll see. But what I see based on what I saw yesterday is a world where Apple takes the AI consumer lead in relatively short order. Millions of people next year walking around talking to Siri AI, asking her all sorts of things and tasking her with all sorts of things. It's a mixture of the power of the default, Apple's own superior product instincts, OpenAI [ceding](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) the consumer high ground, Google being stretched in a million different directions beyond consumer (and, of course, helping out Apple here), Microsoft never being good at consumer, Anthropic not caring about consumer, Amazon not having a smartphone ([yet?](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/)), and Meta [not having the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). After being left for dead in AI, everything is coming up Apple, again. How annoying for some – THEY CAN'T KEEP DOING THIS. [AI becomes a new reason](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) to get an iPhone. [Forget AI PCs](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/), this is the first true AI device. *If it works.* 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Which [needs a better icon](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2064051171245871233?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) ### Dreams of a Siri That Doesn't Suck URL: https://spyglass.org/new-new-siri/ Last updated: 2026-09-29T12:38:53.000Z Golfers will know the term "mulligan". While [the origins are murky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mulligan%5F%28games%29?ref=spyglass.org), it undoubtedly came from someone with that last name taking a bad shot and requesting a "do over". It's not an officially sanctioned rule, of course. But even the best golfers in the world use a mulligan at some point. Now, one of the best *companies* in the world is about to use one. Apple. Later today at WWDC, Apple will unveil the new Siri – for real this time. Two years ago, [the company laid out a vision](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) for 'Apple Intelligence', which [sounded good](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/) on paper and in presentation. A sort of "AI for the rest of us" – products not fully built around AI, but [products](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chatbot/) you already use augmented with AI to make them smarter. While they were [suspiciously](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) light on demos, Apple Intelligence would be coming soon, mostly in the Fall with the usual OS updates, Apple promised. Given [the history of Siri](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) up until that point – bad to the point of becoming [Larry David punchlines](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTefnhbg0Ig&ref=spyglass.org) – we had no real reason to believe Apple would get it right this time. But hey, it was the dawn of the Age of AI. And it was Apple. There's no way they would deceive us with vaporware, right? [Right](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/)?! [Wrong](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/). What happened next was a shitting of the bed not seen since the Apple Maps debacle in Tim Cook's early days as CEO. And actually this would prove to be far worse. Because at least Apple could make a compelling business (and subsequently, privacy) case for why they needed to rip out Google Maps and roll their own. With AI, Apple was just in over their heads, but [they couldn't see it](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). Worse, they thought everyone else was wrong. That chatbots were a silly toy. That LLMs would be a passing fad. Again, wrong. [Heads rolled](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/), though clearly [not as fast](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) as they should have. WWDC 2025 came and went with Apple hoping that [new UI would distract from AI](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/). It didn't matter that 'Liquid Glass' was divisive, what mattered was that everyone was talking about it rather than talking about Apple's AI failures. When those were brought up, Apple was ready with some [epic gaslighting](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/). "As you know, Apple Intelligence is great..." [Behind the scenes](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/), everything was not great, of course. Beyond making the wrong early calls and bets with AI, the problems were exacerbated by the nature of the technology itself. It was continuing to evolve so fast that even if Apple could ship their answer, it was likely going to be out-of-date by the time it did – we saw this with the few features that did actually launch. They were a day late and about a billion dollars short. Many more elements just never shipped. And the [constant](https://spyglass.org/apple-slippery-intelligence/) delays even started spilling over into Apple's bread-and-butter: their tangible products which sat somewhere, probably in Asia, ready to be assembled but lacking the smarts needed to make them sing. So those too [were delayed](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/). Apple faced [the same problem](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) that Amazon did in that they had a massive install base already using the old version of their "AI" – the Siri and Alexa voice assistants – for rudimentary tasks such as setting timers, checking the weather, and playing music. [They perhaps thought](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) they could just swap in the new tech to replace the old tech, but when [they tried to do that](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/), things started breaking at the edges. Even Google was running into such issues, which is why it has taken so long to replace all the functionality of their 'Assistant' with Gemini. But whereas Amazon and Google were deep in the weeds of AI, Apple was not. So it was a bit like trying to change an engine mid-flight not with a toolkit, but with a tuna fish sandwich. I had a sense of what Apple probably needed to do about 18 months ago: [replace Siri with an AI service that actually worked](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/). Not just as a fallback, a role ChatGPT has obtusely served, *but as* [*the main brain of Siri*](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/). Sure, easier said than done, but well, it's eventually [exactly what Apple would do](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/). Well, not *exactly*, as [it sounds like](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) Apple is technically "distilling" Google's Gemini models into a modified version for their own purposes. Still, this is obviously what Apple should have done from the get-go. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but it's also the playbook Apple often follows – with Google Maps, for example! Outsource that shit until your version is ready to roll! There was undoubtedly [a mixture of arrogance](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) and [simply bad decisions](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) at play here. But I also worry this aforementioned Age of AI requires a method of execution that Apple is simply [not geared towards](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/). Constant, rapid iteration and deployment. Not going under the shroud of secrecy for a year, emerging with a perfectly polished gem to showcase to the world. I think even Google is making this mistake to some extent as the most recent Google I/O [showcased](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/). The difference is that Google, [thanks to DeepMind](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/), is an AI powerhouse. Apple probably should have acquired their own DeepMind, but now it's [undoubtedly too late](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) and [certainly too expensive](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/). So instead they're paying Google to use their DeepMind. Awkward. [But the correct call](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/). And it's why I'm actually *optimistic* heading into this WWDC keynote. Again, I've remained skeptical of Apple's abilities to pull off AI over the past couple of years because I've been writing about Siri since [before they launched it 15 years ago](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/28/apples-big-fall/?ref=spyglass.org). Every year they say it's going to be the year that Siri gets good. [And every year Siri continues to suck](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/). That's obviously a bit unfair. ([But not fully!](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/)) Siri has been useful for certain things, like the aforementioned setting of timers and other such rudimentary tasks. But whereas Alexa quickly ate Siri's lunch as a toddler, now ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and all the rest are full-on bullying Siri, *Mean Girls*\-style, as a teenager. Can Siri join the cool kids table while also staying true to her roots? Meaning, of course, Apple's roots in privacy and user experience. Thanks to the Gemini-infused [lobotomy](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/), I'm cautiously optimistic. I also think Apple finds itself in an interesting place thanks to the fact that the product which has long been viewed as the leader in AI, ChatGPT, [is in the process of morphing](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/). Because OpenAI is [under assault](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) from Google above and Anthropic below, they're [pulling back](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) from a pure consumer-focus and going after the lower hanging fruit from a business perspective in the form of developers and enterprises. This might leave an opening for a great new consumer AI product, or suite of products. And who does consumer better than Apple? **Let's not get ahead of ourselves.** First and foremost, we just need a Siri that actually works. And then I think we need proof that Apple has [actually shifted](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) their mindset [under Craig Federighi](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) (and Mike Rockwell – [and soon, John Ternus](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) at the very top) to transform the company into one that can actually operate in this Age of AI. I don't think that requires spending hundreds of billions in CapEx every year, but it probably requires [spending more](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) than the same $7B to $12B they have every year for the past decade. Ultimately, the jury is still very much out if they need to own and operate their own frontier foundation models. Certainly they need *some* of their own models, and they've [obviously](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) been working on those. But how much does the frontier matter going forward? Microsoft used to say it didn't, which is why they were happy to let OpenAI own that space. Of course, they also [technically *had to* let them](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) own that space. Now that they no longer do, Microsoft is singing [a very different tune](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/)... If Apple can walk the fine line of distilling Gemini for their high-end needs while using their own models for the lower-end AI needs, there's perhaps a path there. But that was also basically the promise two years ago. And, well... The real risk here is the same as it was with Google Maps all those years ago. That Google alters the terms of their agreement in ways that makes Apple uncomfortable. Apple can either pray they don't alter them further or... At that point, the answer probably won't be to train their own massive LLM. For one, that probably won't be feasible, but for another, the world may have moved past LLMs at that point – or at least those being [the *only* types of models](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/). Maybe Apple will just skip LLMs (again, the frontier variety) and go right to "World Models"? You could [certainly make the case](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) that they're uniquely positioned there [given the billions of devices](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) they have out there in the wild ready to gather data. Then the question becomes if Apple is okay using such data to train such models? Perhaps if they frame it in a "secure" and "private" way, as is the Apple way? But again, can that mentality actually cut it in the Age of AI? Apple may find themselves [backed into a corner](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) at the moment, but the dominance of their devices – [the iPhone in particular](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) – also still gives them [a unique opportunity](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/). Yes, even now. Yes, even after all the soiled bed sheets. If AI compute [moves](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) more towards the edge, Apple may suddenly have [a silicon advantage](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/). Even if it doesn't, there's still [no better hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) on which to use AI – [at least not yet](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/). The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, and that's the hybrid approach Apple also promised two years ago. If they can actually execute on it... Step one starts today. Or rather, step two that's a do-over of step one. A mulligan. **One more thing:** the other past Apple debacle that keeps popping into my head was [MobileMe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MobileMe?ref=spyglass.org). In the age before iCloud made it so that Apple's services ["just work"](https://techcrunch.com/2011/06/08/apple-icloud-google-cloud/?ref=spyglass.org), Steve Jobs had to lay down the law. As Adam Lashinsky [relayed](https://fortune.com/article/inside-apple/?ref=spyglass.org) in *Fortune*: > "Can anyone tell me what MobileMe is supposed to do?" Having received a satisfactory answer, he continued, "So why the fuck doesn't it do that?" > > For the next half-hour Jobs berated the group. "You've tarnished Apple's reputation," he told them. "You should hate each other for having let each other down." "So why the fuck doesn't it do that?" is a pretty good encapsulation of Siri over these past 15 years. So far, there's been no good answer... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- **Update June 9, 2026**: Some thoughts post-WWDC keynote... [Apple Wins Consumer AI By DefaultAs the iPhone becomes the first true AI device…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-5494acd7-19b3-4887-8ae3-937f79e2a471.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-06-09-at-2.16.49---PM-c29aaee8-9125-4764-a6d1-f6d0155d38a7.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-ai/) ### Inklings #016 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-s-p-500-maintains-rules-surface-nvidia-rtx-hands-on-microsofts-project-solara-mlb-salary-cap-big-tech-renewing-their-ipos-government-stakes-in-big-ai-anthropics-ai-development-/ Last updated: 2026-06-07T19:34:37.000Z Sending a Sunday edition as it's WWDC Eve – more thoughts on that, tomorrow – and I've been on the road. A lot below, starting with some thoughts on the latest wave of "AI PCs" and if any consumer might actually be enticed by these... [They’re Building AI PCs, Will Users Come?Developers will, but at what cost? And can NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google push Apple aside there?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-8bef4d1f-8b02-4e58-883a-c05357849b98.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-3--2026--02_20_35-PM-2fe15ce7-07bc-47f0-a7e0-d2779322bc87.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🚪** [**S&P 500 Holds the Door**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/asian-stocks-poised-to-edge-lower-oil-steadies-markets-wrap?ref=spyglass.org) – A genuine surprise as it [seemed inevitable](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9A%80%20SpaceX%27s%20%27Fast%20Entry%27%20to%20the%20Market) that the index would follow the NASDAQ 100 and FTSE Russell in allowing for [near-immediate inclusion](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/hail-hail?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=bvcu&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=Is%20a%20change%20to%20the%20S%26P%20500%20rules%20going%20to%20let%20SpaceX%20be%20included%20on%20day%20one%20after%20going%20public%3F%20Seems%20like%20one%20hell%20of%20a%20hack%20to%20make%20Elon%20Musk%20the%20first%20trillionaire.%20%5BYahoo%20Finance%5D) of new entrants. Instead, those hoping to join the S&P 500 will still have to wait at least a year, which has always felt like a far more sane situation given how much automatic buying (and subsequent rebalancing) is tied to these indices. This obviously would have boosted SpaceX (and [perhaps soon](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/), Anthropic and OpenAI) while also dinging their Big Tech brethren (including, of course, Tesla). But the real losers would have been those companies more on the fringe of such lists, which would have been booted as a result, thus hurting their own stocks immensely. Again, it's just all mostly automated, so better to do such things in a orderly manner, no? Well, not for NASDAQ and FTSE, it seems! One more thing: there are also profitability rules around inclusion in the S&P 500 – and SpaceX would currently run afoul of those, with xAI and their [new AI push](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) putting the company in the red. Of course, they were profitable before [that deal](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/), so we'll see how long it takes to get back there. This, obviously, would be an issue for OpenAI and perhaps Anthropic as well! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/asian-stocks-poised-to-edge-lower-oil-steadies-markets-wrap?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** 💻 [**‘Surface Laptop Ultra’ Hands-On**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/941600/microsoft-surface-laptop-ultra-dev-box-hands-on?ref=spyglass.org) **—** It looks nice, in that it looks pretty much *exactly* like a MacBook Pro, though hard to blame Microsoft too much here as it’s 2026 and laptop design pretty much is what it is at this point, and Apple set that standard long ago. Well, except for the touch-screen element, which this will have, and the MacBook Pro doesn’t — [*yet*](https://spyglass.org/touchscreen-macbook-toaster-fridge/). That plus the big AI specs comes at a cost — quite literally, which we don’t know yet but will undoubtedly be many thousands due to the RAM (128GB) alone — “I was surprised by the weight” and “hefty” are not two things you want to hear about a late 2026 laptop. And while I would say that most such developers will probably use this machine stationary, that begs the question of why not just get the undoubtedly more powerful (thanks to the power requirements) and perhaps cheaper (thanks to no screen) ‘Surface RTX Spark Dev Box’ (rolls right off the tongue)? I’m reminded a bit of the [Chromebook Pixel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromebook%5FPixel?ref=spyglass.org) here, which was also nice, but hardware-wise proved to be overkill, leading to a price-point that led to it not really selling. Will the local AI capabilities be enough? Still feels early for that… Ultimately, I wouldn’t be shocked if *zero* MacBook Pro users switch over. If nothing else, there’s the whole Windows element this device still has to overcome. Also, how [awkward](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) for [Copilot+ PCs](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) — are these new RTX-powered machines going to be Copilot++ PCs? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/941600/microsoft-surface-laptop-ultra-dev-box-hands-on?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** 🗣️[**Microsoft’s ‘Project Solara’**](https://www.geekwire.com/2026/inside-microsofts-project-solara-a-new-platform-for-devices-that-run-ai-agents-instead-of-apps/?ref=spyglass.org) — Speaking of Windows… sort of wild on the surface (not Surface) that Microsoft’s AI devices initiative will be built on top of *Android*. But also not *that* surprising given that Windows is 40 years old and simply not built for such things from name on down. The focal point will clearly be the cloud, which will allow a sort of orchestra of devices to work with one-another — [a concept](https://500ish.com/computing-in-concert-679e68c14b8a?ref=spyglass.org) I’ve long been a proponent of as [the future of computing](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) (i.e. no single “iPhone-killer” but *many* devices working together in concert). The question will be what makes Microsoft’s offering compelling enough here, as presumably Apple and Google will be aiming to build the same around their own devices. Perhaps working with third-parties to make this more “Matter-like” helps, but seemingly Amazon would take such an approach as well. Maybe the Windows install base helps, but again, these devices don’t run Windows! So it may come down to who has the best AI and Cloud — and perhaps for enterprise, Microsoft has a viable shot. But in terms of devices that consumers actually want to use, may have been nice to be able to work with OpenAI and Jony Ive on [such a flagship device](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/), no? Maybe Microsoft can partner with *Meta* here? **\[**[**GeekWire**](https://www.geekwire.com/2026/inside-microsofts-project-solara-a-new-platform-for-devices-that-run-ai-agents-instead-of-apps/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **⚾️** [**MLB Proposes Salary Cap**](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/48901348/2026-mlb-labor-cba-mlbpa-first-proposals-lockout-salary-cap-floor?stream=top&ref=spyglass.org) **–** Impossible to see the league's hard cap proposal of $245.3M happening – the Dodgers payroll right now is around *$400M*. Seven of the 30 teams are currently above the threshold. The players' union, the strongest in sports, would never go for that. They would undoubtedly go for a payroll *floor* (trying to force "cheap" teams to spend more) but that proposal of $171.2M is nearly *$100M above* the Marlins' current payroll – *13 of the 30 teams are below it currently*. [In ways](https://spyglass.org/oakland-athletics-las-vegas/), baseball now echoes the inequality in larger society – yes, my hometown Cleveland Guardians, with the second lowest payroll, constantly punch above their weight, but big-market/big-spending teams have won the last 10 World Series in a row. And it's largely fueled by TV money – but not the national deals, rather the owned/controlled regional networks bring in massive amounts for a few teams (namely the Dodgers and Yankees) while many others get basically nothing as some collective [RSNs are constantly broke](https://spyglass.org/amazon-sports-rsn/). Oh yes, and Steve Cohen doesn't help matters as he's roughly 3x as wealthy as the next richest owner (beyond the Rogers Communication company that owns the Blue Jays) and has been spending as such on the Mets – humorously, to no avail. Anyway, they need to get this sorted [ahead of](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/171668858/nbc-and-netflix-near-mlb-deals?ref=spyglass.org) the next national [TV rights](https://spyglass.org/espn-balks-mlb-walks/) negotiations in a couple years, with MLB trying to take over more control a la the NFL (good luck with that given those few RSNs). A strike seems pretty likely next year. **\[**[**ESPN**](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/%5F/id/48901348/2026-mlb-labor-cba-mlbpa-first-proposals-lockout-salary-cap-floor?stream=top&ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... OpenAI is on the verge of morphing ChatGPT into something new. Is that a good thing? [“Chat is dead.”As OpenAI morphs ChatGPT, there are opportunities and risks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-0eae71fb-071e-4943-ac42-c9743c2f2e8a.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-7--2026--03_56_32-PM-1-6e4eeb56-531e-40c6-ac01-087063f2d263.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/) ### I Quote... > "We’re talking about it, where the American people can benefit from the success of AI. It would be a beautiful thing. And it would make them rich." – **President Donald Trump** [on the notion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/us-exploring-government-partnerships-with-ai-firms-trump-says?ref=spyglass.org) (per below) that the US government could acquire stake in some of the leading AI companies. 🎶 Listening to [****"Going Shopping" by The Strokes**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgaLAliC3-8&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Demory Paris IPA**](https://demoryparis.com/products/paris-ipa-carton-de-12?srsltid=AfmBOoqyVWZXf5h%5FIYj-YEL9-eIATfezUpjje%5FRLT3lGyd-lge7x5Gcb&ref=spyglass.org) 🇫🇷 Sent from ****Paris, France** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Big Tech Renewing Their IPO Vows** ****• Government Weighs Stakes in Big AI** ****• Anthropic Calls for AI Development Pause** ****• Google Lets Publishers Opt-Out of AI Crawl** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### "Chat is dead." URL: https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-is-dead-long-live-chatgpt/ Last updated: 2026-09-24T19:36:42.000Z [ OpenAI plots biggest ChatGPT overhaul since launch $850bn start-up to recast hit chatbot as a route to higher-margin products before a potential IPO ![](https://images.icon-icons.com/2699/PNG/512/ft_logo_icon_169138.png) The Financial Times Cristina Criddle ![](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/ftcms%3A30267a93-b947-4d9a-bd71-425db9da4ec7?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=1440&dpr=1) ](https://www.ft.com/content/ca0f5f5e-fb9a-41a0-a2a9-0127e15b7db9?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) There's not a lot in here that we didn't [already know](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%B8%F0%9F%8F%BB%E2%80%8D%E2%99%82%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%27s%20%22Super%20App%22) about OpenAI's sprint towards making ChatGPT [a "super app"](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) but one quote, which I used in the title, is worth, um, chatting about perhaps. > The changes, which will give greater prominence and resources to OpenAI’s coding product Codex, reflect a growing conviction within the company that the future of AI lies not in chatbots that answer questions but in agents that perform tasks for users. > > “Chat is dead,” said one senior OpenAI employee. While the report cites "more than a dozen current and former employees" of OpenAI, the quote above is clearly from a *current* one. A *senior* one. That's interesting in so far as you can use it as a finger-on-the-pulse within the company. And it points to both an opportunity and challenge ahead for OpenAI. First and foremost, it would be *wild* for the company to cede the chatbot ground. To be clear and fair, the rest of the report doesn't indicate that the 'chat' element of ChatGPT is going away, let alone dying – [unlike, say, Sora](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) – but it does indicate an effort and hope to [move beyond it](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/), and perhaps just use it as an entry point to get people in the door for the "real" services that OpenAI wants to push. > The company is embarking on the changes amid a belief that the advent of AI agents, which can perform multiple tasks for users from booking travel to organising calendars, will be a more valuable product than the chatbot. This hunt for "value" is obviously increasingly important as OpenAI angles [towards an IPO](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/). There was a time, perhaps a year ago, when it seemed like their top-line revenue and user growth was enough, but a lot has changed in a year. While it has long looked like Anthropic was in a better position from a bottom-line perspective, due to less spend (and, at least somewhat related, [more focus](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/)), the fact that they've now surpassed OpenAI with that top-line growth is also a problem, [obviously](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%88%20Anthropic%20Files%20to%20go%20Public). And ahead of the would-be IPOs, the private valuations of the two companies now fully [reflects that](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20Anthropic%20at%20%24900B%2B). At the same time, at least [one report](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-app-hits-1-billion-monthly-active-users-record-time-data-shows-2026-06-02/?ref=spyglass.org) suggests ChatGPT has surpassed the all-important 1B MAU mark – though the company has yet to officially announce it *\[update:* [*perhaps*](https://x.com/morqon/status/2063741676015779966?ref=spyglass.org) *they're waiting to hit 1B weekly active users, which* [*seems to be*](https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/?ref=spyglass.org) *their preferred metric?\]*. While it remains record-breaking growth, they were [hoping](https://www.ft.com/content/e91cb018-873c-4388-84c0-46e9f82146b4?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) to hit the mark by the end of last year. Doing so six months into this year suggests that growth, while still amazing, also perhaps isn't as amazing as it once was. Also not great: the fact that Google just announced the 900M MAU mark for Gemini [at I/O last month](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/). Anthropic is attacking the business while Google is attacking the usage. So yeah, something had to change. > The overhaul, which is set to begin rolling out in coming weeks, will initially appear as changes to ChatGPT’s website and mobile apps, encouraging customers towards using coding, image-generation and apps from external partners. Given that timetable, they'll also likely be [battling their old friend Microsoft on the "super app" front](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/). Probably Google as well, depending on how long it takes them to pull their agents and coding tools into the Gemini app. The "apps from external partners" element is interesting, the report goes a bit more into that further down: > To encourage users to adopt those services, OpenAI is redesigning ChatGPT’s interface, adding new prompts and features that direct users towards coding tools, image generation and applications built by partners such as Canva and Booking.com, according to people familiar with the plans. > > Over time, OpenAI intends to ditch the prompts and features, betting that its models will be able to automatically understand users’ intentions when they are on the app or site. In other words, anyone partnering with OpenAI on this launch better be going in eyes wide open, knowing they'll be relegated back into the background eventually. But for now, this new "Super" ChatGPT will seemingly try to lean on partners for all it can do out-of-the-box beyond the things Claude may already be doing for you. Yes, we're [still trying](https://spyglass.org/stop-making-app-stores/) to make App Stores happen, in a way. > Outlining the changes, Thibault Sottiaux, who previously ran Codex and now leads all of OpenAI’s core product and platform, told the FT: “It will transcend the actual surface...what we’re building towards is where you have your own personal agent that is capable of helping you... across everything in your life, be it personally or at work.” > > He added: “You can connect through it on your mobile, desktop or web. When you’re in the car, you can talk to it.” To reiterate, that's a *current* OpenAI exec speaking on-the-record about these changes. And his comments also suggest a move beyond the chatbot but also that the company believes we may yet enter a world of "[one AI to rule them all](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/)" – something [I've explored more recently](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/) in thinking about if the AI world might play out in a similar manner to the old "bring your own device" strategy in enterprise. Is your personal AI going to be so ingrained in your life that it's also just most convenient to use it as your work AI? > Executives believe users will increasingly interact with a single AI assistant rather than a collection of separate applications. As agents become more capable, OpenAI expects the distinction between chatbots, coding tools, search products and other software categories to blur. > > “When we have \[artificial general intelligence\], I don’t think there will be a large number of distinct brands,” said Alex Embiricos, OpenAI’s head of enterprise product. “Probably there will be a single entity that I can talk to that can do whatever I need.” OpenAI sure seems to think so! Of course, the opposite might be true (or so Microsoft undoubtedly hopes). > “Approximately a year ago, OpenAI’s strategy was swing for the fences, whereas Anthropic’s strategy is make money first,” said Jenny Xiao, partner at Leonis Capital and former researcher at OpenAI. > > “Now the two are converging, because both of them are trying to aim for an IPO and investors care more about money than dreams.” Yeah, [two roads diverged](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/)... until they suddenly converged when it became clear which was the better road. Speaking of, I can't help but [continue to think](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) that the real risk here for OpenAI is in morphing ChatGPT from this consumer-facing phenomenon into this more enterprise-focused business. They wouldn't frame it that way, of course – again, 'one AI to rule them all', and all that – but this "super app" could certainly muddle the message of what exactly ChatGPT is. Given the killer quote above, is it reasonable to think they might not even call such an app "ChatGPT" anymore? I mean, that would be truly crazy given that it has basically become the "Kleenex" brand of AI ([no matter what Microsoft may think – lol](https://www.wired.com/story/has-microsoft-lost-its-mojo-again/?ref=spyglass.org)). Codex definitely seems to have some real momentum right now – both outside the company and *within it*. [This report last week from Stephanie Palazzolo for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-openais-decision-combine-codex-chatgpt?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) notes that the company feels like they built Codex *the right way*, that is a deep connection between model and product. That would suggest that they feel like ChatGPT itself *wasn't* built the right way, and was sort of backed into – which, yeah, duh. Further, some in the company seem to believe that using Codex for many of the tasks people now use ChatGPT for is just a better experience. So the question becomes if Codex is about to subsume ChatGPT? It's not just about winning in coding to win in coding, but also the thinking that winning here will help OpenAI also get ahead in agentic workflows (and perhaps [recursive self-improvement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive%5Fself-improvement?ref=spyglass.org)) and that, in turn, can pave the way back to consumers in the form of a *true* AI assistant. [How's that for an Odyssey](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/)? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Age of the “Super App” — Again and Again and AgainMeta. X. Coinbase. Airbnb. Uber. Snap. Spotify. ChatGPT. Even Disney. They’re all trying – and constantly failing – with this strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-58b9af06-c155-4589-9129-ac6c112f73fe.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-3--2026--10_21_10-AM-0b13a917-49a8-4b45-af45-67b7ac06ef4d.png)](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) [Two AI Roads Diverged...Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-d718ac03-e0a0-435e-b510-a97940d88657.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-11--2025--05_02_17-PM-40b1e25b-e4d1-4871-ae74-892d20c7899d.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) [OpenAI’s OdysseyCan they get down to business while maintaining ChatGPT’s lead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-c9b3c02c-e2b9-458a-a3f3-7bd666ace880.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4512f360-b5f4-425a-be59-71cd20bc3d5f_3840x2208-1-6bf2fd09-3e1d-4d48-ba6c-6a3d867929f0.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) ### They're Building AI PCs, Will Users Come? URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-race/ Last updated: 2026-09-22T15:28:38.000Z In [yesterday's newsletter](https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/) I highlighted the following quote from Jensen Huang during his keynote address at Computex: > This reinvention of the computer is as big of a deal as the reinvention of the phone into what we now know as the smartphone. Microsoft and Nvidia are going to reinvent the PC. This is the first completely re-engineered, reinvented line of PCs that has happened in 40 years. A few folks messaged that this is little more than marketing hogwash, echoing my own "hype" comment. Computers, of course, have been reinvented many times over many decades, not just with the smartphone. And even the PC itself has been reinvented over and over again. Will the 'RTX Spark' even lead to more profound change in the space than, say, Apple Silicon has? _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Inklings #015 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-nvidias-cpus-anthropics-ipo-apples-smart-glasses-in-2027-intels-new-ai-gpu-surface-laptop-ultra/ Last updated: 2026-06-02T13:09:31.000Z Given how much was being telegraphed ahead of Jensen Huang's Computex keynote, [I wrote up some thoughts](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) on NVIDIA jumping into [PC-focused CPUs](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/technology/nvidia-chips-personal-computers.html?ref=spyglass.org) a few days ago (of course, it was [a long-time coming](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-inside-pc/)). [With 'RTX Spark'](https://www.tomshardware.com/laptops/nvidia-unveils-rtx-spark-superchip-at-computex-2026-new-platform-promises-to-turn-windows-into-an-agentic-ai-os-with-arm-cpu-blackwell-gpu-and-128gb-unified-memory?ref=spyglass.org) (what is with seemingly [every](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) [company](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) using the 'Spark' branding for a different element of AI?) now unveiled, it seems... pretty much as expected. It will start as a high-end chip for high-end PCs that's undoubtedly going to be expensive (no prices were given) simply because of the memory alone. Will they take off where "Copilot+ PCs" [did not](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) as personal "AI Supercomputers"? We'll see. A lot of that will fall upon just how well they actually run Windows (and the [myriad software](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/) built for Microsoft's operating system). We'll undoubtedly hear a lot more about that at the Build keynote in a few hours... Forget Qualcomm, [would love to hear](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/) Intel's [thoughts](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-knifes-intel/) on this! [Microsoft Seeks a Surface RT & Copilot+ PC Do-Over with NVIDIACan the main AI chip maker ensure Windows owns the ‘AI PC’?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/HJf6tj2bgAAoGf7.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **📈** [**Anthropic Files to go Public**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj0EssDYqCc&ref=spyglass.org) – Alex Kantrowitz and I were in the middle of recording our [monthly podcast](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) when [this news](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/technology/anthropic-ipo.html?ref=spyglass.org) hit, so we [channeled Bill O'Reilly](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu2NK5REvWM&ref=spyglass.org) and **did it live**. It helps that I wrote about this very prospect ([twice!](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20OpenAI%27s%20IPO%20Hedge)) a couple weeks back: [how complicated the narrative would be for OpenAI if Anthropic filed first](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/). That was because it leaked that OpenAI was *about to* file, perhaps to take some wind out of SpaceX's S-1 sails – and well, it looks like Anthropic [quietly beat them](https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec?ref=spyglass.org) to the punch! So yeah, [that's a problem for OpenAI](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/technology/anthropic-ipo.html?ref=spyglass.org) optically, if nothing else. But that's also [nothing new](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) for OpenAI. Their hope would be that the market can digest all of these listings, but the fact that they're all [likely to be listed](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9A%80%20SpaceX%27s%20%27Fast%20Entry%27%20to%20the%20Market) in indices like the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 in relative short order, thus causing major portfolio rebalancing, could cause chaos. No surprise that OpenAI is out there today [touting](https://openai.com/index/codex-for-knowledge-work/?ref=spyglass.org) Codex growth, as they need to try to turn this story around, *pronto*. The other thing, not mentioned with Alex, that [I'd expect them](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20OpenAI%20Going%20After%20Mom%20%26%20Pop%20Advertisers) to lean on heavily here: ads growth. It's the one business area Anthropic apparently isn't touching. So OpenAI has a potential greenfield there – [if they can get them working](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) – at least from an IPO narrative perspective... How long until OpenAI files? **\[**[**YouTube**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj0EssDYqCc&ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📺** [**Streaming Bundles Prove Popular**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/28/business/media/streaming-tv-hulu-disney-hbo.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Yeah, [duh](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/). With up to a third of sign-ups now happening with one of these partnerships, don't be surprised to see Netflix jump into the game soon too. They've [dipped](https://spyglass.org/streamsaver/) their toes [tangentially](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/), but an official Netflix + well, anyone, would obviously immediately be the most popular one of these offerings. The more interesting play remains if they go down the "channels" route that Amazon has pushed so effectively, and let (made) other services use their app (and UI, and recommendation engines) to [serve up](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/) the [content](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/). This is obviously a dangerous path for the other streaming services – and why Netflix [hasn't](https://spyglass.org/netflix-apple-tv/) given such [power](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/) to any of the streaming *boxes*. But as YouTube [keeps](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) creeping up (and [backing into](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) being [the *actual* new cable bundle](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/) via YouTube TV), it feels like Netflix will make moves here. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/28/business/media/streaming-tv-hulu-disney-hbo.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **✋** [**Don't "Dickover" Your Readers to Death**](https://daringfireball.net/2026/05/what%5Fis%5Fa%5Fdickover?ref=spyglass.org) **–** If I [stop to think](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1751884894756561334?ref=spyglass.org) how much of my life has been [spent](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1504895712839888897?ref=spyglass.org) dismissing pop-ups/overs on websites ([especially in Europe](https://spyglass.org/europe-cookie-banners/)), I immediately get depressed. Added together, it's a meaningful amount of our time on Earth spent doing this. But on an individual site level, it's both annoying and just rude to your readership, as John Gruber colorfully illustrates. It was definitely one key aspect of going with [Ghost](https://ghost.org/?ref=spyglass.org) as a publishing platform over Medium or Substack for *Spyglass*. I just want the content to load and render in a way that's a great reading experience. Not, you know, [this](https://500ish.com/what-a-great-reading-experience-702a14abe5b0?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Daring Fireball**](https://daringfireball.net/2026/05/what%5Fis%5Fa%5Fdickover?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🔊** [**Where is the Google Home Speaker?**](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/31/google-home-speaker-release-date-june/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I have been wondering this myself because, frankly, I want one. The first purpose-built Gemini-powered device was long promised and [promoted](https://store.google.com/product/google%5Fhome%5Fspeaker?ref=spyglass.org) to be "coming Spring 2026". It's now June, and while we may technically have a couple weeks of "Spring" left, I think everyone would consider this to be Summer. The fact that [I/O came and went](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) without a mention of the device didn't seem like a great sign. But maybe there's some hope in the product pages of [Canadian Best Buy](https://www.bestbuy.ca/en-ca/product/google-home-audio-smart-speaker-with-google-assistant-hazel-coming-spring-2026/19399724?ref=spyglass.org) (though they have since removed the "June 25" date – replacing it with "coming soon")? Given the fact that AI upgrade work continues on various Google Home products, this clearly seems to be a software/AI issue and not a hardware one. Which is interesting because that would be the same issue that has bedeviled both Amazon with the [Alexa+ roll-out](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) and Apple with the [new HomePods](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) (and newfangled Siri [in general](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/), of course). I'll just reiterate [what I wrote two years ago](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/): sometimes being early is worse than being late. That is, because Amazon, Apple, and now Google have to upgrade old systems rather than just rolling out new ones, they're paying a legacy tax, as it were. And clearly none of them were quite ready for it. **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/31/google-home-speaker-release-date-june/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... In other Microsoft news ahead of Build... [The Summer of ‘Super Apps’Microsoft races to get the one Copilot to rule them all out the door…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-2--2026--10_14_44-AM-1-358f618d4dfc491679bcd0890e335ebb5c3a2d081810e04ac26bc88bdd1265ae.png)](https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/) ### I Quote... > "This reinvention of the computer is as big of a deal as the reinvention of the phone into what we now know as the smartphone. Microsoft and Nvidia are going to reinvent the PC. This is the first completely re-engineered, reinvented line of PCs that has happened in 40 years." – **Jensen Huang**, [making the case](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/31/nvidias-new-chip-to-power-fresh-line-of-windows-laptops-by-dell-hp.html?ref=spyglass.org) for RTX Spark, and NVIDIA's place in the PC market. I haven't heard this much hype in at least a few months, when Jensen was [telling us](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) how OpenClaw was the most important software ever created. Now for [both](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/), we'll see... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Apple's iGlasses in 2027** ****• Intel's New AI GPU** ****• Surface Laptop Ultra** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The Summer of 'Super Apps' URL: https://spyglass.org/copilot-ai-super-app/ Last updated: 2026-09-19T07:07:34.000Z [Exclusive: Microsoft is building a super app that combines coding, chat, and other Copilot AI tools | FortuneThe project is being spearheaded by new Copilot chief Jacob Andreou, as Microsoft seeks to streamline its lineup of AI tools amid competition from Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-4badb99efe0dfbdaf47c7dcd36618ed659bd86a53575bc36cdae3582d9759c29.png)FortuneSebastian Herrera![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-1132529735-e1780064099241-6f53ffdbd8876c78d50ecc1f98f55d96c8d193a45562307c561de531fd430757.jpg)](https://fortune.com/2026/05/29/microsoft-working-on-super-app/?ref=spyglass.org) Goodbye peach. Goodbye [cloud blob](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/). Hello "super app". At their Build conference keynote later today, Microsoft is widely expected to unveil a number of things, including new in-house AI [models](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/microsoft-release-new-coding-model-next-week-comeback-attempt?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), Windows 11 [tweaks](https://spyglass.org/microslop-windows/), more about their 'Surface Laptop Ultra' [NVIDIA-powered machines](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) – but the thing I'm most interested in is their attempt at this Copilot "super app": > The software giant is working on a one-stop shop that would connect its GitHub Copilot coding assistant, Copilot chat function, Copilot Cowork tool, and a new agentic workflow capability internally named Autopilot into a single app, according to two sources familiar with the project, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a platform that hasn’t yet been released. The project is being spearheaded by Jacob Andreou, Microsoft’s recently appointed head of Copilot. One of Andreou’s primary tasks has been to unite the consumer and enterprise sides of Copilot into a cohesive product. > > Some elements of the app, which is being developed internally with the slogan “Delivering one Copilot,” could be referenced at Microsoft’s [Build developer conference](https://build.microsoft.com/en-US/home?ref=spyglass.org) next week in San Francisco, though there are no plans to showcase the app itself. The company plans to launch the super app by the end of summer. The plans for the super app could evolve and are not yet final, the sources said, but the idea is to be able to combine a user’s Copilots into one central interface, including accounts from the productivity-focused Microsoft 365 Copilot. I'm shocked, [*shocked*](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) that the [strategy](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/) of having 17 different versions of Copilot across 17 different surfaces (including yes, Surfaces) hasn't worked out for Microsoft. "Delivering one Copilot" is obviously the right approach and messaging. And yes, that puts Microsoft in the camp with Meta, X, Coinbase, Airbnb, Uber, Snap, Spotify – even Disney in going after the elusive (at least in the West) ["super app" concept](https://spyglass.org/super-app/). And assuming the timeline above is right, they'll be in a footrace to get their take out the door with, who else? [OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/). [I joked last week](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DY6fww-iC7d?ref=spyglass.org) that it looked like Microsoft's IP rights with OpenAI may have included CSS files when [a leaked image](https://www.engadget.com/2183246/microsoft-debuts-a-more-buttoned-up-look-for-copilot/?utm%5Fterm=Autofeed&utm%5Fcampaign=Echobox-Engadget&utm%5Fmedium=Social-Distribution&utm%5Fsource=Twitter#Echobox=1779999221) of the new Copilot looked a lot like ChatGPT. And by "a lot" I meant "exactly". Per above, gone was the peachy hues of the previous consumer-facing Copilot – seemingly derived from [Pi](https://hey.pi.ai/?ref=spyglass.org), the first and only product from Inflection, the team Microsoft "[hackquired](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" in the [first such deal](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/). Hardly a surprise that Mustafa Suleyman [tried to make](https://spyglass.org/ai-matter-of-trust/) Pi happen within Microsoft, but also [hardly](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-clippy-copilot-ai/) a surprise that it didn't work. And now hardly a surprise that he's been [reassigned elsewhere](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/), to work on the frontier models he spent much of the past couple years insisting Microsoft [wasn't interested in making](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/). Anyway, a couple days later, [Alex Heath seemingly got](https://sources.news/p/leaked-microsoft-ai-copilot-super-app-autopilot-scout?ref=spyglass.org) a better leaked screenshot of the Copilot "super app". And actually, it looks less like ChatGPT and more like Claude – almost exactly like Anthropic's own "super app" right down to the toggles. Sure, they have four rather than three options, but you can chalk that up to Microsoft being Microsoft. Gotta clutter where you can. I will say kudos on the "Autopilot" naming – a clever riff to convey agentic work. I think it's interesting how the design of all of these services has collapsed into the same basic one. While they all started trying to be a bit different, visually, clearly ChatGPT's "chatbot" paradigm [won the day](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/), at least for now. And Apple is apparently about to be included on that list too, when [the new Siri app](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) – and actually, the *first* Siri *actual* app – is unveiled at WWDC. Apple tried to keep Siri as a more nebulous system-wide thing, but again, clearly the chat app idea is what users expect right now. We'll see if that changes if/when the first true AI devices [built around voice](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) start hitting the market... [It sounds like](https://www.theverge.com/report/940861/microsoft-build-ai-models-windows-dev-mode-what-to-expect?ref=spyglass.org) we will indeed hear more about this new Copilot in the Build keynote, but likely just a preview as Microsoft races OpenAI to get the "super app" out the door and into the hands of consumers/developers this Summer. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/intro-1779998892.webp) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/06/74a1d4f5-91f9-45d5-b4b2-275f60020dcb_3846x2440.jpg) Which do you prefer: ChatGPT Copilot or Claude Copilot? --- **Update June 3, 2026**: The Build keynote came and went without a showcasing of the Copilot "super app", [but as Mary Jo Foley notes for GeekWire](https://www.geekwire.com/2026/mary-jo-foley-no-copilot-super-app-at-microsoft-build-but-plenty-of-agentic-fodder/?ref=spyglass.org), Satya Nadella *did* directly mention it in passing: "Come summer, we will be bringing coding to all knowledge work within one Copilot Super App. That’s really exciting. So you’re going to have Chat, Cowork, and Code all in Copilot". --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Age of the “Super App” — Again and Again and AgainMeta. X. Coinbase. Airbnb. Uber. Snap. Spotify. ChatGPT. Even Disney. They’re all trying – and constantly failing – with this strategy…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-3--2026--10_21_10-AM-f385e760bff619d768ff244751a6daba07da722e6302c71dfc89c3ab3afa9c02.png)](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) [Microsoft’s Awkward AIThere’s a Copilot for that…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-02-22.54.16---A-charming-and-cute-scene-of-two-robots-acting-bashful.-The-robots-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-humanoid-features--and-they-are-positioned-close-1117729be59dc9c562d701ebca551fffa8f63f05469233f3c65584f9495efcb1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) [Microsoft Puts a Face to Their (Bad) AI Bot NameThe anthropomorphized Copilot is interesting – in ways good and bad.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-07-28-at-8.48.49---PM-adecfde808af280de543626196b61e3647733c7dfeac23c49d8e7f5c26dfc8bd.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) [Does Microsoft Have an AI Problem?It’s early, but there sure is a lot of smoke billowing…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/visualelectric-4-682d180fdd76378b75f6818c453acb46759f04642439ec860a544dd3b1f945f4.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/) [Microsoft Adds More Copilots to Help Copilot CopilotTheir consumer and commercial AI efforts clearly haven’t worked…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-18--2026--10_17_41-AM-2-811ffce7fb16a1ddf8b99e030a1147ea58427c322bab4d6243079088af5d1950.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) ### YouTube Beats AI to Disrupting Hollywood URL: https://spyglass.org/youtube-ai-hollywood-disruption/ Last updated: 2026-09-16T09:05:21.000Z This past weekend, a movie opened with [$81M at the box office](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/backrooms-sets-a24-record-90-million-opening-1236609070/?ref=spyglass.org). A big number. But also one that Hollywood would undoubtedly expect for a marquee film in an early summer slot. *But this movie cost just $10M to make*. And was directed by a 20-year-old first-time director. Based off of the short films he put out there on YouTube. In that light, this isn't just a big number, it's a holy-shit-your-pants moment for Hollywood. And while you might be tempted to write off *Backrooms* as a one-off box office blip a la *The Blair Witch Project* almost 30 years ago, there are a few reasons to believe this may actually be a sea-change moment for the entire industry.[1](#one) First and foremost, the movie that came in [the number two spot](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2026W22/?ref%5F=bo%5Fhm%5Frw&ref=spyglass.org) wasn't the latest *Star Wars* epic, *The Mandalorian and Grogu*, in its second weekend. It was Curry Barker's *Obsession* in its *third* weekend. Yes, a movie with a $750k budget by yet another first-time director beat a movie that cost a reported $400M for Disney to make and market. What is going on out there? Well, YouTube, for one thing. Beyond Kane Parsons using the platform to perfect his craft and story for *Backrooms*, Barker also cut his teeth on the service. [I wrote a blurb about this in a newsletter last week](https://spyglass.org/oliver/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%BF%20Hollywood%27s%20Coming%20YouTube%20%27Obsession%27), but that was when there was some inkling that *Backrooms* might earn a "mere" $50M this weekend. The $80M+ opening plus the fact that *Obsession* has now *risen* at the box office each week – something that hasn't happened (outside of a few Christmas weekends) *in 40+ years* – all but ensures this movement draws Hollywood's attention much like the Eye of Sauron when Frodo Baggins puts on the Ring of Power.[2](#two) And, if history is any guide, the industry may smother this fire before it spreads. Barker is apparently [getting eight-figure offers](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/obsession-filmmaker-curry-barker-gets-7-figure-offer-1236606967/?ref=spyglass.org) for his next project sight unseen. Parsons may just get a literal blank check after this weekend. Not that they don't deserve the paydays and bigger budgets, but this has always been the delicate balance and not-so-fine line in Hollywood. If something is working, money is thrown at it and everyone sets out to copy it. But this movement could be just as much about the "grassroots" nature of building an audience and fandom on YouTube – and using the platform to stress test your ideas. And trying to sincerely engage there would be incredibly awkward for a Hollywood apparatus which has spent the past couple of decades first trying to sue such platforms out of existence, and later just generally dismissing the notion of "UGC" as any kind of competitive threat. This has long been a simmering misunderstanding of the fundamental notion of attention. Hollywood assumed their content commanded it above all else. No one seemed to realize that the relative scarcity of entertainment options leading into the 1950s was not just a factor of their "Golden Age" but was *the factor*. The box office data over the past 80 years would have very clearly showed this to anyone willing to take an honest look. [Per-capita spending](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org) first started to plummet, then overall attendance did. Instead, such data was sprinkled with ticket price increases and inflation pixie dust. As a result Box Office "records" continued [unabated](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=A%20box%20office%20boom%2C%20but...). COVID punctured that dream, but rather than wake-up, the industry has been busy trying to figure out ways to go back to sleep. Anyway, attention continued to shift. To television. To videogames. To smartphones. To streaming. It's not that people are consuming less content – they're consuming far more of it! – but where they're interacting with it has changed. These days, YouTube is king. That misunderstanding is now boiling over in the form of $80M+ opening weekends at the box office. Which seems like *a good thing* for Hollywood, right? A legitimate record again, finally. But not one Hollywood controls the narrative around. It will undoubtedly be spun by some as "see, to really succeed, you must 'graduate' to movie theaters" – boy would that be a misreading of what's really going on here. This weekend portends the end of the "traditional" model for Hollywood. The big studio gatekeepers have been eroding for years, and now it is being swept out to sea. Tidal waves are forming. YouTube is just the first. Can Hollywood ride such a wave? They will try! But obviously it has to be about more than simply releasing movie trailers to their channels. There will be a rush to try and cultivate talent who are able to leverage the platform natively. But it must be paired with the realization that this is all part of an attention continuum. In 2026, the model cannot only be releasing a big budget movie into thousands of theaters (many of which sit completely empty while the content plays depending on the movie, city, time of day, etc) and keeping it there for a set number of days [so as to unnaturally protect](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) a distribution model that was created a hundred years ago. Again, in [a very different world](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/). That is not to say that movie theaters should die! If anything, this weekend [proves their value](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). They should be utilized in new and interesting ways. Leveraging content that built an audience elsewhere, such as, yes, YouTube. But also television.[3](#three) Obviously, that model is nothing new, but what used to be thought of as shows "graduating" into being movies, [should be far more fluid](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/). Maybe something starts as a show but [builds towards](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org) a finale in theaters. Or vice versa. Maybe a movie starts on streaming then builds towards an "event" showing in theaters, a la *KPop Demon Hunters* – [which worked](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/), by the way, *because* it aired on Netflix first, not in spite of it. Maybe a sequel goes directly to theaters. Maybe a movie opens in theaters for only one week – the horror! – for the super fans, then quickly spreads elsewhere. There are so many different ideas and experiments to try... Also, they don't really have to be full-on experiments. You can track such things. We can build it, we have the technology. Speaking of, perhaps the most fascinating meta layer here is that while Hollywood has been busy panicking and bracing for [the onslaught of AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/), it's *YouTube* which has come around to truly disrupt the system. This has been a long time coming, of course. But Hollywood was blinded to it because just as with the box office trends, they simply didn't want to see it. They convinced themselves they were looking at easy-to-dismiss "UGC", when they should have been focusing on attention. In particular, amongst young people. Current tracking suggests that half of the audience for Backrooms was under 25\. *Half!* And 86% may have been below 35\. *Eighty-six percent!* These are not numbers that marketing drove. There's something else going on here, clearly! Of course, there are smart players that already realized this. A24 is rightfully getting a lot of plaudits for *Backrooms* opening today. And Focus Features has continued to keep their eye on things like *Obsession* despite being a part of the OG Universal studio, itself long-since under the Comcast conglomerate. [Jason Blum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason%5FBlum?ref=spyglass.org) is out there being quoted left and right, which makes sense given the success he's long seen with his Blumhouse banner. The fact that all of this is tied to the horror genre doesn't seem like an accident. It's the one area of filmmaking where smaller budgets are not just tolerated, but are a part of the model. Again, that's not to say you can't do interesting art with big budgets, it just means that the big budget alone is obviously not enough and conversely, smaller budgets may lead to *more* creativity in the same way that [any kind of constraint](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) tends to... [As Brooks Barnes points out in *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/business/media/young-moviegoers-backrooms-a24-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org), the films of the 1970s that "reset" the industry were in part a response to the big-budget spectacles of the 1960s when Hollywood tried to grow simply by puffing out its chest – with its war chest. It feels like there are similarities here, but also the world is far, far different. The streamers are at the gate. Hollywood was [seemingly proud of themselves](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) having [fought off](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) the Netflix "threat", only to [wake up to the reality](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) of the Paramount Skydance "synergies". Big Tech increasingly encroaching on this turf is inevitable. [Amazon owns James Bond](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/), he will not be the last. We'll see what Google does with news of now two massive movies having effectively started on their platform. Are they okay for YouTube to remain a "farm system" as it were, or do they start to flex? Unlike Hollywood, they do understand the modern attention economy. They've got Netflix and Prime Video and TikTok to fight. Finally, Hollywood, as with pretty much every industry, seems to be standing on the beach screaming at the ocean as the AI tidal wave approaches. Maybe this YouTube jolt is a wake-up call, but probably not. And I fear that's really because of a broader situation brewing: attention aside, what both the YouTube model and AI may ultimately showcase is [the true "democratization" of filmmaking](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/). For decades, kids have dreamed of growing up to "make it in Hollywood". For almost everyone, it was just that, a dream. Because even if you had the best idea in the world, the odds that someone was going to give you tens of millions – let alone *hundreds of millions* – to do it was well, impossible. And, as Hollywood well knew, that exclusivity continued to fuel some of the allure. But this weekend may have just showcased those gates shifting. And AI may throw them open for good. Because in order to make a movie, you'll no longer have to make it in Hollywood. Quite literally, you won't! **One more thing:** one of the production units that co-produced *Backrooms* was [21 Laps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21%5FLaps%5FEntertainment?ref=spyglass.org). That's the group set up by filmmaker [Shawn Levy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawn%5FLevy?ref=spyglass.org) – whose next film is next summer's [next *Star Wars*](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184067078/the-on-time-and-on-budget-jedi?ref=spyglass.org): *Starfighter*. 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Hollywood Cuts Off Its Future to Spite Its PresentNetflix is obviously the best path forward for Warner Bros, you fools…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/RIP_20241028_01742_R-H-2026-5fdbe0a20f434e0206958db7ab0c45240eb293a1b1141a7b7c9c83faae90cea3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-761c51513d4bc5a443e9784ecb20086f0b7848de3f3bdd5dcd4c2c4cf8257726.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) [Fixing the Windows in a Broken HomeTheatrical windows are back in place. Hopefully more open this time…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DJDvny-VwAAN1mb-49110a8fcad938a19a9eb9470d84793523efa4e17a1329df465c7f47107fabfd.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) [The “AI-Generated Hit Movie” Horror StoryAI-generated movies are coming. But AI-generated “hit movies”?…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-10--2026--03_29_55-PM-1-1aa831945a4ab393a626b9d1618903247c7eca04145a6d8fff7f8f44dc6bcfc7.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) [DeepSeek 2: The MovieThe Seedance “End of Hollywood” likely points to the paths forward…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-02-16-at-11.10.18---PM-6fb659e12724475a42423306f04a70a40446049ce4c024b6253148f3a6633e08.png)](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/) --- 1 I was tempted to call it a 'DeepSeek Moment' but well, that moment [ended up being complicated](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/) – less 'Sputnik' more 'Spendthrift'. In that way, this may be sort of similar! [↩](#) 2 For context, *The Mandalorian and Grogu* **fell** nearly 70% in its second weekend. Yes, big drops are normal for blockbusters, but 70% is a very big drop. [↩](#) 3 Yes, this is sort of ironic given that *The Mandalorian* started by streaming on Disney+ and they clearly thought that would give it more legs in theaters. But *Star Wars* is [a whole other can of worms](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/), dating in part to its long history, starting as a lower-budget genre-defining project by a renegade filmmaker in Northern California... [↩](#) ### Microsoft Seeks a Surface RT & Copilot+ PC Do-Over with NVIDIA URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/ Last updated: 2026-09-16T09:04:58.000Z Have you heard? Intel is back, baby. A year ago, the peddlers of Pentium were [all-but left for dead](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside/) having missed not just the mobile revolution, but the AI one as well. Intel was an $85B company, while NVIDIA, long their GPU-focused little brother, was about *40x their size* in terms of market cap – by far the most valuable company in the world thanks to that AI boom. Worse, Intel's *actual* main rival, AMD, [was making them look silly too](https://spyglass.org/intel-under-assault/). But a lot can change in a year. [Like a CEO](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/). And a ~~bail-out~~ [investment](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/#:~:text=Intel%20gets%20bailed%20out) [from the US government](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/). And the [promises](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) of new partnerships with Tesla [and Apple](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Apple%20%2B%20Intel%20Details)... Anyway, suddenly Intel is back at all-time highs – [now a $600B company](https://spyglass.org/inklings-microsofts-early-openai-dealings-apple-intel-have-a-deal-barnes-noble-comeback-rip-ted-turner-elon-musks-colossus-strategy-openais-next-microsoft-fight/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%9D%20Apple%20%26%20Intel%20Have%20a%20Deal...%20For%20Something)! And right on cue, Microsoft, [long](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/) Intel's most-important partner, keeps finding new and interesting ways [to slight them](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-knifes-intel/). This time with, who else? NVIDIA. The writing may not yet be on the wall, but it's all over Xitter. Both [Microsoft](https://x.com/Windows/status/2060390712567300176?ref=spyglass.org) and [NVIDIA](https://x.com/nvidia/status/2060390710797328574?ref=spyglass.org) are teasing a big announcement – "A new era of PC." – with the exact same cryptic language (technically, coordinates of Taipei, where Computex kicks off next week). And this follows [hints by Jensen Huang](https://x.com/jukan05/status/2059911848334618668?ref=spyglass.org) of a "surprising new product" set to be announced. It seems fairly obvious at this point that it's NVIDIA's new CPU – but not the data center/AI variety. The one meant for general-purpose PCs. [I wrote about this prospect back in February](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-inside-pc/) when the news of the initiative [first leaked](https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-wants-to-be-the-brain-of-consumer-pcs-once-again-9e1e41b3?ref=spyglass.org) after [months of speculation](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/nvidias-n1-n1x-chips-leak-once-again-this-time-tipped-for-release-in-first-half-of-2026-hotly-anticipated-chips-to-reportedly-debut-on-dell-and-lenovo-laptops?ref=spyglass.org) about 'N1' and 'N1X' chips. NVIDIA, of course, has been making general-purpose CPUs for years – most notably for the Nintendo Switch and [its predecessor Switch 2](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2-launch/). But also most infamously for the Surface RT. Yes, Microsoft's first attempt at an ARM-based PC, which was a disaster from the get-go – [trash can-worthy, some might say](https://techcrunch.com/2012/11/19/i-got-one-but-i-dont-get-it/?ref=spyglass.org). Well, this sure looks to be a do-over of that project. If/when NVIDIA announces their new CPU – and full SoC – next week, Microsoft is [clearly](https://x.com/pavandavuluri/status/2060391269399134356?ref=spyglass.org) going to be a key partner. But [the real question](https://www.theverge.com/tech/938807/microsoft-surface-future-devices-notepad?ref=spyglass.org) is if we might get a new *device* alongside a partnership [with Windows](https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-n1x-desktop-soc-appears-in-first-furmark-leak-featuring-new-590-drivers?ref=spyglass.org). [A tweet from Pavan Davuluri](https://x.com/pavandavuluri/status/2060391269399134356?ref=spyglass.org), Microsoft's EVP of Windows + Devices would sure seem to suggest as much – perhaps to be unveiled during Microsoft's own Build keynote, which kicks off *the day after* Computex. It could very well be a new stab at the Surface RT! They obviously won't call it that, but it might be the same general idea.[1](#one) But perhaps this time powered by an NVIDIA [in a *very* different place](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/). And again, Intel in a very different place too! After the RT debacle, Microsoft had to retreat back to the ([quite literally](https://mgs.blog/think-cooler-52a6efecdaec?ref=spyglass.org)) warm embrace of x86 for a while. But they kept the dream of Windows ARM alive undoubtedly because of the rise of not just the iPad, but Apple Silicon in general. That culminated in [the launch of Copilot+ PCs](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) a couple years back. While Intel was technically along for that ride, [the initial and clearly key partner there was Qualcomm](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-knifes-intel/), providing the ARM-based chips. While not as big of a bellyflop as the Surface RT, clearly the Copilot+ PC movement hasn't lit the world on fire either. That was in part Microsoft's own fault as [a series of privacy](https://spyglass.org/total-recall-microsoft/) and just [general AI missteps](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/) stopped the latest PC revolution yet again. So now it sure seems like Microsoft is trying yet again. With NVIDIA yet again. And again, this is a very different world with [a very different NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/). This move actually may make quite a bit of sense given NVIDIA's status in AI if nothing else. Sure, their CPUs are unproven for such purposes, but if the focal point will be AI-native devices, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better partner. Certainly from a marketing-perspective! Which, I suspect, we're going to get hit over the head with next week. [As I wrote back in February](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-inside-pc/): > It's that full NVIDIA SoC that Dell, Lenovo, and others seem to be circling. Undoubtedly in part to play up the NVIDIA angle, hoping to get some halo effect for PC sales. You could see the angle being something like "forget about Intel and AMD, NVIDIA, the company building the future of AI, is here with PC chips". Yes, they'd be touting "NVIDIA Inside". While Microsoft clearly isn't the only partner for NVIDIA's would-be new CPUs – [ASUS, we see you!](https://x.com/ASUS/status/2060399502880887190?ref=spyglass.org) – they're also undoubtedly meant to be the flagship partner. This might be both Surface RT done right and Copilot+ PCs done right – but with newer branding. But probably not *better* branding. I mean, [it is still Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-office-brand-ruined/), right? Anyway, it seems like a smart potential play from all sides. Certainly in the face of [the new MacBook Neo](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) currently assaulting the PC market [in a way](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) Apple never has before. And now with Google set to release "Googlebooks" to try to [own the concept of an "AI PC"](https://spyglass.org/googlebook/) themselves. This makes sense for basically everyone but Intel.[2](#two) Reinvigorated, but perhaps on the outside looking in here yet again...[3](#three) 'Surface AI', anyone? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [NVIDIA InsideCan the AI powerhouse become a consumer PC player?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/33de0774-9752-487e-a571-eabaea896404-1-dbf10e86f88fc91fc8b1a7f130a0a5fb4f92b33ccfcd61bf0af75f0fe0d82bd7.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-inside-pc/) [Microsoft Kicks x86 to the CurbIn order to save Windows laptops![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-1-240cd11ee4f36a83207d15e2ba7ef7f25a7bffbc977371a3b42b48d41b2523a2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-knifes-intel/) [Can NVIDIA Become Intel Faster Than Everyone Becomes NVIDIA?As money pours into AI, can NVIDIA stay ahead?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-watercolor-rocket-ship-3-870cbaf81f0b62fbfbd423e05117c6ad40648d6b9f57ad4811c622b75ea4999b.webp)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/) --- 1 "Something new is coming for developers" is interesting framing. Might it suggest that Microsoft is aiming for new hardware that is solely (or mainly) focused on AI development? Maybe my 'Surface AI' branding isn't far off! [↩](#) 2 This move by NVIDIA into CPUs could even help Qualcomm by helping to legitimize the ARM-based market for PCs... [↩](#) 3 Though it should be noted that they're *also partnering with NVIDIA* now on perhaps other SoCs. After all, [NVIDIA is a shareholder now too](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20NVIDIA%20Invests%20in%20Intel)! [↩](#) ### Inklings #014 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/oliver/ Last updated: 2026-05-29T06:15:09.000Z Hello from the road, where I simply had to weigh in on the Ferrari Luce design backlash. As well as a handful of other things here and there... [Let There Be LuceLoveFrom’s Ferrari design is predictably divisive…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-05-26-at-11.33.16---AM-1-cbb1d8c5c8a0ea67a4b65a10320072640daf3659fd0eca9ed54a3fc76852abbf.png)](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-luce-design/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🤖** [**Google Admits Being Behind in AI Coding**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/podcasts/sundar-pichai-understands-why-people-are-anxious-about-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** A refreshingly straightforward answer from Sundar Pichai when asked by Kevin Roose and Casey Newton to assess where Gemini is with regard to the all-important coding capabilities just after this year's Google I/O keynote: "I think we are a bit behind at this moment." He seems sheepish in the entire interview which I would chalk up to [I/O being poorly timed](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) with regard to announcing major breakthroughs – especially given that Anthropic is [now the one](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) keeping their peddle to the metal with Claude Opus 4.8 [out the door](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-8?ref=spyglass.org), apparently even better at coding, and the first public-facing [Mythos models](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) approaching within ["weeks"](https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/28/anthropic-releases-opus-4-8-with-new-dynamic-workflow-tool/?ref=spyglass.org). I would say that Google should go all-in on ["world models"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) as Demis Hassabis clearly wants to do, but they also clearly believing the coding capabilities may be a key to unlocking *something*, be it agentic uses, [or RSI](https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/28/rsi-is-the-new-agi-and-its-just-as-hard-to-pin-down/?ref=spyglass.org), or AGI... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/podcasts/sundar-pichai-understands-why-people-are-anxious-about-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💸** [**OpenAI Going After Mom & Pop Advertisers**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-next-ad-move-going-small-scale-big?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **–** It feels like OpenAI is throwing basically everything against the wall when it comes to their ads business at the moment. What started as massive brand CPM buys is now getting extremely granular [with CPC](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/#:~:text=%F0%9F%AA%8E%20Cost%2DPer%2DClick%20AI%20Ads) – working with local car washes? Obviously, they [need](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%27s%20Path%20to%20%24100B%20in%20Ad%20Revenue) this business to work both for their IPO aspirations but also because it's a major point of [differentiation](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) against Anthropic, which has said it will not go down the advertising path – or at least made fun of it to the point of such a backtrack being all but impossible anytime soon. It's the most obvious narrative battle that OpenAI can win and own in this race right now – if they can get it working. And that's a massive "if", because [I continue to believe](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) that they face a major click problem and that it will take some new kind of format/model to make advertising work at scale. The good news for OpenAI is that they're not alone here: Google needs this to work too, and could end up doing a lot of the heavy lifting to figure it out, which could pass down to all the other players, including OpenAI. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-next-ad-move-going-small-scale-big?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💰** [**Samsung's Bonus Situation**](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/samsungs-non-chip-union-files-injunction-bid-stop-vote-bonuses-media-reports-2026-05-26/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Sort of a fascinating battle within the company at the moment on a few fronts. First and foremost, because of the massive success they're now seeing with their chips business – pushing them well [past the $1T market cap mark](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/#:~:text=Technology%20Review%5D-,%F0%9F%93%88%20Samsung%20Hits%20%241T,-%E2%80%93%20What%27s%20wild%20is) – that group's union has demanded a payout based on profits. The company quickly agreed, but it caused the other units to revolt even though they're not responsible for such profits and in some cases, are floundering. But the point of the say, [TV division](https://spyglass.org/apple-television/), is that for years, they were the ones carrying the company. It's just a wild situation that's playing out across [many Asian companies](https://www.ft.com/content/557561df-4b72-48e8-89cb-239829de694a?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org), it seems. Without question, profit-sharing is compelling in principle, but the second-order effects are proving to be a nightmare! **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/samsungs-non-chip-union-files-injunction-bid-stop-vote-bonuses-media-reports-2026-05-26/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📽️** [**Baby Yoda Slightly Scores**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/media/mandalorian-and-grogu-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Better than the (clearly sandbagged) $80M [expectations](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%91%B6%20Can%20Baby%20Yoda%20Save%20Star%20Wars%3F), *Mandalorian and Grogu* came in *almost exactly* where *Solo* did 8 years ago. Of course, inflation is a bitch here, so *Solo's* $103M is about $138M today. Still, Disney can work with this given that *Mando* cost about *$100M less to make* (again not including inflation – so far lower than *Solo*). Will it make money? Hard to say now (AI extrapolates it out as a coin-flip). As always, will depend on the second week hold – and there are a lot of movies coming out soon, most notably *Masters of the Universe* (decent enough buzz, [but I'm sort of](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/185430406/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) [skeptical](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org)) and *Disclosure Day* (great buzz, presumably not just a Spielberg bump). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/media/mandalorian-and-grogu-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🍿** [**Hollywood's Coming YouTube 'Obsession'**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/obsession-filmmaker-curry-barker-gets-7-figure-offer-1236606967/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Related to the above, the big movie opening this coming weekend isn't Big IP or Big Director focused, it's [*Backrooms*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backrooms%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org), a horror movie made by [Kane Parsons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kane%5FParsons?ref=spyglass.org), who got his start on YouTube and may now have a $50M+ opening weekend at the box office. And the 20-ish year old is hardly the only one charting that path now. Curry Barker, at the ripe old age of 26, is said to be getting 8-figure offers to produce his next movie after [*Obsession*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obsession%5F%282025%5Ffilm%29?ref=spyglass.org) blew up at the box office. This whole wave is both great and interesting that it's happening right before AI was presumed to [do the same](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/) – truly [democratizing Hollywood](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/). How long until YouTube tries to capitalize, quite literally, directly? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/obsession-filmmaker-curry-barker-gets-7-figure-offer-1236606967/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📲** [**Apple's Local AI Dreams**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-renew-push-ai-runs-devices-instead-cloud?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – With seemingly everything known (see: below) about what Apple will announce at WWDC this year with regard to their Apple Intelligence upgrades, it's not entirely clear how they'll *frame* everything. It stands to reason that they'll [talk up](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) Apple Silicon as enabling the ability to distill larger (Google) models to run locally. And also that the AI work requiring larger models will still be protected by "Private Cloud Compute" – even if they're pivoting that model [a bit](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) to now encompass workloads not just on their own servers, but [perhaps on](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) Google's too – maybe [even](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) with some running on NVIDIA's chips! It will be a delicate dance for Apple given the past rhetoric around [data protection](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-cloud-security/) and AI. And while their local model aspirations may prove [prescient](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) at some point, we're clearly not fully there yet... **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-renew-push-ai-runs-devices-instead-cloud?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ### I Wrote... [Meta’s Premium Branding MessMeta Plus Meta One Plus Premium & Essential & Advanced…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-27--2026--09_46_22-PM-1-b016d3b218f4c17b962df730d843314f681cd01d87fffec8bcc10cc09ed5ef6a.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/) ### I Quote... > "A more moral A.I. is not enough if that morality is determined by a few." – **Pope Leo XIV**, [weighing in on](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/25/technology/pope-ai-silicon-valley.html?ref=spyglass.org) the technology in [his first encyclical](https://www.vatican.va/content/leo-xiv/en/encyclicals/documents/20260515-magnifica-humanitas.html?ref=spyglass.org), "Magnificent Humanity". In some ways, title says it all, but it's also an interesting, more nuanced stance than you might imagine given [the broader rhetoric](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/). And bringing an Anthropic co-founder in to his inner ring for this is certainly a choice and a statement in and of itself. Another quote worth highlighting closes the *NYT* story: "Big Tech is essentially its own religion with its own theology and rites, not to mention its own power and influence. Pope Leo’s encyclical will be automatically viewed as false doctrine." That quote is *not* the Pope but Greg M. Epstein, the humanist chaplain at Harvard and M.I.T. ### Asides... - **Amazon** taking over **Apple's** 20% stake in **Globalstar** makes sense given [the full takeover](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/amazon-may-buy-globalstar?ref=spyglass.org) (and [Apple not wanting to be](https://spyglass.org/apple-starlink-spacex/) in that business). The ongoing Apple partnership will simply be an business agreement. The holding company being named "Grapefruit" is just a nice touch. **\[**[**PC Mag**](https://www.pcmag.com/news/amazon-to-take-over-apples-20-stake-in-globalstar-as-part-of-acquisition?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta's** [would-be](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/#:~:text=One%20more%20thing%3A%20perhaps%20the%20most%20interesting%20element%20of%20the%20Muse%20movement%20is%20the%20notion%20that%20Meta%20intends%20to%20sell%20access%20via%20APIs.%20A%20first%20step%20towards%20a%20bigger%20Meta%20Cloud%20offering%3F%20You%20don%27t%20spend%20%24140B%20a%20year%20for%20table%20stakes.) third-party cloud **computing** [offering](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) is "definitely on the table" according to **Zuck**. Which is obviously him pulling the "Elon Lever", to suggest all their CapEx spend could pay off in the way [xAI's have](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/?ref=dossier-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%91%20xAI%20Gets%20Cursor%20to%20Cover%20Some%20Server%20Costs) with [Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/) and [Cursor](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=Thoughts%20On...-,%F0%9F%92%AB%20Cursor%20%2B%20SpaceX,-%E2%80%93%20In%20noting) striking "neocloud" deals. **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/mark-zuckerberg-says-meta-starting-cloud-business-on-the-table.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - After Apple's Siri [debacle](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/), the biggest **AI** vaporware peddler would seem to be **Salesforce** as they continue to push the [nonsensical](https://spyglass.org/whopper-of-a-week/#:~:text=And%20I%20Quote,the%20phrase%20%22Agentforce%22.) "**Agentforce**" branding – even after spending $20M years ago to acquire the rights to use "Einstein" for AI purposes! My god, use that! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-22/salesforce-touts-ai-promise-over-reality-in-saaspocalypse-fight?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Meanwhile, a company that went overboard with their initial AI hype/branding ([When Bob Met Watson](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xYvwcnHn9k&ref=spyglass.org)), **IBM**, is clearly angling to own the would-be next thing: **quantum**. **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/technology/ibm-plans-10-billion-investment-large-scale-quantum-computer-by-2029-2026-05-28/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It sure feels like the **Paramount**/**Warner Bros Discovery** is about the get the greenlight. [Good luck, Hollywood](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/)! You may not have got what you wanted, but you got [what you asked for](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/)! **\[**[**Semafor**](https://www.semafor.com/article/05/26/2026/paramount-appears-to-sway-doj-staff-on-warner-bros-takeover?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **X-Men '97** on **Disney+** is [finally](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/#:~:text=The%20Composers%20of%20%27X%2DMen%20%E2%80%9897%27%20Had%20to%20Evolve%20the%20Show%E2%80%99s%20Sound) almost [back](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1x0MJweTU0&ref=spyglass.org) and with even better news: seasons 3 and 4 are not only confirmed, but *already in the works*, so there won't be a huge wait between them. **\[**[**EW**](https://ew.com/x-men-97-season-2-trailer-premiere-apocalypse-gambit-aftermath-polaris-exclusive-11984038?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... I [continue](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) to be [confused](https://spyglass.org/dossier-005-jensen-roars/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Apple%27s%20New%20Siri%20UI) by this whole "Search or Ask" notion for New Siri. I don't care if these are two different things in Apple's mind – and neither will the user. There should be *one* box/option for all queries and the AI should sort out your intent. I'm hoping [this new mock-up](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-05-28/apple-ios-27-photos-screenshots-revamped-siri-pro-camera-app-new-ai-features?ref=spyglass.org) (apparently based on at least prototypes of how this will work in iOS 27) is just to showcase a long-press option or something and doesn't come up *every time* you bring up Siri. That would be stupid. And well, [I wouldn't put it past Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/)! [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/-1x-1.webp)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-05-28/apple-ios-27-photos-screenshots-revamped-siri-pro-camera-app-new-ai-features?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"American Cars" by Noah Kahan**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M34D3Ktovfw&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Flack's New Forest Classic IPA**](https://flack-manor-brewery.myshopify.com/collections/frontpage?ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****New Forest in England** ### Meta's Premium Branding Mess URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-one-premium/ Last updated: 2026-09-16T09:04:38.000Z [Meta launches Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp subscriptions, with more to come, including AI plans | TechCrunchMeta is rolling out paid subscription plans for Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp worldwide, while also testing new AI, creator, and business-focused offerings under its broader “Meta One” subscription brand.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/cropped-cropped-favicon-gradient-ae382c68739765fd6555d8cb98e506975df012c0028eb1ace7294220a25598cc.png)TechCrunchSarah Perez![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/meta-apps-GettyImages-2164040793-6a0e987c8efdf30c4a461898e168923d5f48f55a867a63d466f7cec5dabd983c.jpg)](https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/27/meta-officially-launches-instagram-facebook-and-whatsapp-subscriptions-with-more-to-come-including-ai-plans/?ref=spyglass.org) And there I was, ready to make fun of Google's rather ridiculous branding for 'Google AI Ultra'. One tidbit [out of Google I/O last week](https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/) was there are now two tiers for the highest end of Gemini access and usage – but *they're both called the same thing*. Google easily could have slotted in 'Max' to denote the new $100/month plan, as it would have worked quite nicely with 'Plus', 'Pro', 'Max', and 'Ultra' (thanks in large part to Apple's consumer hardware branding efforts). But no, there are now *two* 'Ultra' tiers, one at $100/month and one remaining at $200/month, seemingly just to confuse people. Anyway, that's silly – to the point where Google has [already had to clarify the plans](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/25/google-one-ai-ultra-clarification/?ref=spyglass.org). But into the bar walks Meta, going full-on "hold my beer". It starts out simple enough. Meta, as has long been rumored (and tested – [humorously *by force* in Europe](https://spyglass.org/eu-to-meta-drop-dead/)), is getting into the subscription game for their myriad social services. So now worldwide we're getting: - **Facebook Plus** – $3.99/month - **Instagram Plus** – $3.99/month - **WhatsApp Plus** – $2.99/month While the earlier test versions were focused on fewer (or un-targeted) ads, these seemingly each will have new features and functionality. They're decidedly not for the masses, but instead for power users of each product. They're basically Meta's way to milk the whales. Can you actually milk a whale? Meta is going to find out! With user growth continuing to slow, and in some markets retract, this is the old tried and true [playbook of profit harvesting](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). It perhaps points to peak ad saturation. Or simply the need for new revenue streams for Meta – which is still beholden to one business and model [far more](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) than any of their peers. Anyway, all of that makes sense and is relatively straightforward. It would probably make sense to be able to bundle such offerings altogether for, say, $9.99/month (about a buck off), but that will undoubtedly be tested too. I mean, they're already using the '**Meta One**' moniker... But from here, for some reason, ideas and models keep flowing and going... > Alongside the launch, Meta says it will begin testing even more subscription plans, which is where things start to get confusing. > > For Meta AI users, it will test two plans — Meta One Plus ($7.99/mo) and Meta One Premium ($19.99/mo) with the same features, but the Premium plan unlocks more capacity on higher compute queries. That means the Premium plan would offer deeper reasoning for complex tasks (i.e., more of “thinking mode” in the Meta AI app or on the web). It would also offer move video and image generation capabilities across Meta’s apps. Okay, so much for my 'Meta One' $9.99/month plan when 'Meta One Plus' costs $7.99/month. And it seemingly has nothing to do with any of the social 'Plus' plans, but instead is only about AI. But it's also not called 'Muse Plus' – [the new branding](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) for Meta's latest AI efforts ([RIP 'Llama'](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/)). Nor is it called 'Meta AI Plus', which would seemingly be more straightforward (in line with Google's premium naming for AI). 'Meta One Premium' offers a weird jump from $7.99/month to $19.99/month (why not $14.99/month?) and not only buys more compute, but also gets new capabilities across the aforementioned social apps. But wait, there's more: > The Meta One Essential plan ($14.99/mo) will offer the Verified badge, impersonation protection, and an enhanced linksheet where users can link out to their online presence across social channels and the web, similar to Meta Verified. > > The more expensive Meta One Advanced plan ($49.99/mo) will include the Essential plan benefits, as well as the ability to be featured in the Facebook feed, appear higher in Facebook and Instagram search results, gain attention with a bold “Follow” button on Reels, and automatically send “follow” invitations to people who engage with your content. I mean, what? Now I'm legitimately confused. Seemingly the reason why 'Meta One Premium' isn't $14.99/month is because that's the price of 'Meta One Essential'. But that gives you totally different things than the other 'Meta One' plans, namely identity protection. That's great (and, of course, already offered), but maybe call it something else given these other offerings? 'Meta One Advanced' takes the confusion to another level by adding in the ability to be featured in the Facebook feed and Instagram search algos. This is basically the growth-hacky "Shit X Does Plan". Again, fine. But it's going to be confusing as hell when it's all branded as 'Meta One' alongside the premium AI stuff. Let's just spell out the offerings here in ascending order: - **WhatsApp Plus** (Social) – $2.99/month - **Facebook Plus** (Social) – $3.99/month - **Instagram Plus** (Social) – $3.99/month - **Meta One Plus** (AI) – $7.99/month - **Meta One Essential** (Identification) – $14.99/month - **Meta One Premium** (AI) – $19.99/month - **Meta One Advanced** (Marketing) – $49.99/month So that's three social 'Plus' offerings, all collectively under the 'Meta One' idea, but not called that. Plus another 'Plus' that *is* called ‘Meta One’ but has nothing to do with social, but is about AI. Meanwhile, the other, more expensive AI offering *does* have some interaction with the social offerings under the 'Premium' moniker. Which is more expensive than the 'Essential' version of the same 'Meta One' brand, because that's only about identity verification. With the last and most expensive 'Meta One' product being all about brands (and I suppose individuals) being able to spam – er, market to – the various Meta social products. Got all that? I'm not certain I do. We're not quite [in Microsoftian territory](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-office-brand-ruined/), but we're close! Maybe Meta should just stick with ads. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Microsoft 365 XP Copilot 3.11 for Workgroups Office 2024 appAn exciting new low for Microsoft branding…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-01-06-at-11.49.41---AM-1-75dc8f3d76e4444dc23bcdaaec9f9fa8cffb335b2896c081857f8a6447c62bb1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-office-brand-ruined/) [Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the CowsMeta and Apple have opposite strategies around AI right now…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-30--2026--01_54_51-PM-78ebe91ceecf03caa696ff95f1e3362bc8b3f14e5cf298b74db3fe7c86be3c03.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) [Meta Keeps MissingEncryption? No. Crypto? No. VR? No. Open models? No. AI? Not so far. Agents? Nothing yet. AR? We’ll see…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-23--2026--07_50_55-PM-19354cffd597833f6e88e05ef960e70edcd733c73cbf492acb47f1a2c21398ec.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) ### Let There Be Luce URL: https://spyglass.org/ferrari-luce-design/ Last updated: 2026-09-11T17:04:51.000Z Let's first address the iPhone in the room. When viewed from above, the Ferrari Luce looks a bit like that *other* product designed by Jony Ive. This is not helped by the fact that the main color variant that [Ferrari seemingly chose](https://www.ferrari.com/en-EN/auto/ferrari-luce?ref=spyglass.org) to use for the roll-out is a light blue that looks decidedly like the blue model of [the iPhone 5c](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone%5F5c?ref=spyglass.org) – one of the iPhone designs [most closely tied to Ive](https://techcrunch.com/2013/09/10/iphone-5c/?ref=spyglass.org). But actually, Ferrari has [a history](https://www.ferrari.com/en-EN/magazine/articles/special-equipments-optional-paints?ref=spyglass.org) with this shade of blue, 'Azzurro La Plata' [the shade of blue](https://ferraricolors.home.blog/shades-of-azzuro/?ref=spyglass.org) used here. Also aiding the comparison is the fact that the entire top of the Luce is apparently glass. Glass made by Corning, no less – yes, just like the the iPhone. If you're looking at this thing top-down from an airplane, it may appear to be an iPhone on wheels. [The mythical Apple Car](https://spyglass.org/rip-apple-car/), at last. Of course, this is *not* a flat smartphone and Ive and his LoveFrom team had many more surfaces to work with in designing their first car. [I wrote about](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-luce-apple-car/) the interior a few months back when Ferrari unveiled that aspect but decided to hold back the big reveal – both the exterior and the price. Now we know both and yeah, both are controversial. "Polarizing" as Ferrari [puts it](https://www.ft.com/content/8cbd876b-6a91-433e-a903-23a5c5250511?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). Both of which are nicer ways of saying there's quite a bit of backlash at the moment. And while you might be able to discount the tweets given the leader of the most famous EV company also owns that network, it's hard to discount the stock price drop Ferrari is seeing at the moment. With the stock [now down 6%+](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/26/ferrari-stock-shares-luce-electric-vehicle-ev-launch.html?ref=spyglass.org), they run the risk of falling out of the top spot when it comes to European automaker market cap. Yes, they're ahead of VW – but they used to be *far ahead* of the much larger car company (which also owns Lamborghini via Audi, FWIW). Anyway, while 'Tesla Twitter' is making fun of the design, 'Design Twitter' seems [more positive](https://x.com/mike%5Fmatas/status/2059005227236495755?ref=spyglass.org). I'm certainly in the latter camp. To me, the Luce looks like a futuristic car while still looking rather elegant. It looks like something you could imagine seeing on the road in 2030 or 2040.[1](#one) Or even 2054.[2](#two) The *actual* versions of those futures, not the flying car variants. LoveFrom kept the exterior decidedly simple, which obviously aides in a design being timeless. But it also can mean backlash *right now*. People demand to see things that look *obviously new* always and forever even if such designs tend to age [poorly](https://spyglass.org/jaguar-rebrand/). Mix this with a move away from old, iconic design and you get... well, this reaction. The Luce look is something that I assume most car people don't like – and presumably most Ferrari people don't in particular, as it doesn't particularly look like a Ferrari. But I'm neither really a car person nor a Ferrari person.[3](#three) I *am* a person interested in EVs, but have always found the look and feel of Tesla to be lacking. They can look fine from afar, certainly relative to many other cars on the road (except for the Cybertruck, which [literally looks](https://spyglass.org/rivian-looks-nicer-than-tesla/#:~:text=To%20which%20you,in%201993.) like a dumpster on wheels), but [up close](https://spyglass.org/oscars-2024/#:~:text=Rivian%20Surprises%20with%20R3%20and%20R3X%20Electric%20SUVs), you can see the seams – in some cases, quite literally. This is why [I've long preferred](https://spyglass.org/rivian-looks-nicer-than-tesla/) the fit and finish of Rivian. So it's interesting for me to read that Ferrari's goal with the Luce is not to appeal to current Ferrari owners, but instead to try to expand their market into the broader EV set. You could certainly argue that they're timing is *awful* here, given the trough of disillusionment in which the EV market currently finds itself thanks in no small part to the current US administration (how awkward [for Elon Musk](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/) – though waging wars in oil-rich states may bring the market roaring back). And you could certainly wonder how much market expansion Ferrari is going to do with a €550,000 car (\~$640,000). But if you're interested in an EV and looking for the highest-end variety, the Luce is now here for you. We'll see how the Luce does in the market. Can it actually help Ferrari [usher in the future](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/) or will it be more of an oddity – perhaps one that brought a lot of features forward, but didn't particularly sell well? Apple had a few of those products over the years, of course. Though I'm not sure the iPhone 5C falls into that camp. Personally, [I loved it](https://techcrunch.com/2013/09/26/iphone-5s-and-iphone-5c/?ref=spyglass.org), but it was more or less [a dud](https://500ish.com/the-iphone-5c-billboard-assault-612513a64456?ref=spyglass.org) from a sales-perspective. A beautiful, bold, bomb. With a similar blue option. **One more thing:** I do love this quote from [the FT piece](https://www.ft.com/content/8cbd876b-6a91-433e-a903-23a5c5250511?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org): > The electric model, which will be priced at €550,000 including taxes, will be profitable from the launch, which Vigna said was testimony to the fact that western manufacturers — not just Chinese rivals — can also succeed in building EVs. I would hope that a car priced at €550k will be profitable from the start! Apple, eat your heart (and margins) out. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-26-at-11.32.27---AM-1.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/IPhone_5C_-blue-.svg.png) 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 One wild stat: [Ferrari has said](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ferrari-launches-640-000-jony-ive-designed-glass-clad-electric-speedster-9deb248e?ref=spyglass.org) they believe that something like 90% of the Ferraris ever made are *still* in operation. [↩](#) 2 Which is the year in which Steven Spielberg's [*Minority Report*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority%5FReport%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org) is set. He [famously summoned](https://www.wired.com/2012/06/minority-report-idea-summit/?ref=spyglass.org) a group of technologists and futurists together back in the early 2000s when it was being made to imagine a realistic future 50 years from then. We're about halfway there now. And, well, [the 2054 Lexus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lexus%5F2054?ref=spyglass.org) has some similarities with the Luce! [↩](#) 3 Though you know who is? [Apple SVP Eddy Cue](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/) who has long been on Ferrari's board... [↩](#) ### Inklings #013 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-great-ai-ipo-race-openais-ipo-hedge-imax-explores-a-sale-can-baby-yoda-save-star-wars-nvidias-record-profits-spacexs-fast-entry-to-the-market-bezos-on-the-melania-doc-space/ Last updated: 2026-06-18T09:07:24.000Z Timing is rarely a coincidence. It's an opportunity. And we're clearly seeing quite a bit of jockeying right now amongst the three Big AI companies looking to go public. Over the next several months, we're about to see endless attempts to frame their own narratives so see what the public will buy. Quite literally. [The Great AI IPO RaceSpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all angling…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--05_30_32-PM-47a315c3bdd2301448c33a8f4c07538eea7cdf4e0e448991cd37b6f1b95ad643.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) Happy long weekend (both Memorial Day and Bank Holiday). I'll be on the road next week. 🍻 ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💸** [**OpenAI's IPO Hedge**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/exclusive-openais-altman-talks-staff-ipo-timing?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **–** Beyond [the obvious optics](https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/) of leaking that you're going to file to go public right before your hated rival flips their S-1 public, assuming OpenAI does actually (confidentially) file today or early next week, it's clearly a maneuver to stay ahead of a would-be Anthropic listing. And a necessary one. If Anthropic goes out first, assuming their better growth *and* better margins hold, OpenAI's IPO is in a lot of trouble. The comp would have already been challenging from a bottom line perspective, [as I detailed last year](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/), but [now that](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-propel-anthropic-into-its-first-profitable-quarter-7edbf2f4?ref=spyglass.org) Anthropic has [seemingly surged ahead](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-held-1-billion-revenue-lead-anthropic-first-quarter?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) in top line too... yeah. So the race is on. But as Sam Altman's comments to staff make clear, it's [not a sure thing](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=No%20major%20AI%20IPOs%20happen%20in%20the%20US) they're going to go public this year – [many](https://www.wsj.com/business/openai-sam-altman-ipo-sarah-friar-392c582b?ref=spyglass.org) elements will factor in, including [how SpaceX is received](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/), overall macro sentiment, [oh yes](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%A5%20OpenAI%27s%20Internal%20IPO%20Tension), and *how* [*their actual business*](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) *is doing* – but this clearly gives them optionality just in case they need to beat Anthropic to market (or, perhaps, if it looks like the market is about to [collapse](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) which could slam the IPO window shut for a long time, and as such, limit access to continued capital, which obviously [would be very bad for OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/)). **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/exclusive-openais-altman-talks-staff-ipo-timing?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🎞️** [**IMAX Explores a Sale**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/imax-is-exploring-a-sale-7d01c45a?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Last summer, I had a new idea for Skydance following their purchase of Paramount: [buying IMAX](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/). As it turns out, they [took my](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) older, [much larger idea](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/), and bought Warner Bros Discovery instead. Still, given IMAX's relative price ($1.8B market cap before the pop on today's news), it could makes sense. Or it could make sense for the company that Paramount just paid a $3B breakup fee to in order to secure WBD. You know, the one that [suddenly](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) and [surprisingly](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/) ([except to me](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)) loves movie theaters: Netflix. Certainly selling to someone right now makes some sense for IMAX, they're [continuing to](https://spyglass.org/imax/) eat into [box office share](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) and 2026 is [likely to be](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=A%20box%20office%20boom%2C%20but...) the best year for movies in quite some time (and perhaps for quite time after that). Sell high, as it were. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/imax-is-exploring-a-sale-7d01c45a?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **👶** [**Can Baby Yoda Save Star Wars?**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/disney-hopes-the-mandalorian-and-grogu-revives-star-wars-in-theaters?ref=spyglass.org) – Speaking of the box office. Sadly, signs are pointing towards "no" here as we head into the holiday weekend. An opening in the $80M range would be great for pretty much any movie, but sadly a *Star Wars* movie is not one of them. For context, *Solo* did $103M over the same weekend 8 years ago – and that movie was considered a *disaster* for Disney ([it was fine](https://spyglass.org/may-the-4th/), [but unnecessary](https://500ish.com/han-what-5c468c19e684?ref=spyglass.org)). Also, $103M is almost *$140M in 2026 dollars*. A bigger disaster for Disney (though not at the box office, but perception-wise) was what came next: *The Rise of Skywalker*. The last of the last trilogy and the last *Star Wars* movie we've seen until now [was a retconning mess](https://500ish.com/the-retcon-of-the-jedi-33a8088216a6?ref=spyglass.org). Forget pent-up demand, it's wild that Disney let that after-taste linger [all this time](https://spyglass.org/disney-kills-kylo-ren-again/). And it's just going to be a hard sell trying to cleanse the palate while also trying to translate a *Star Wars* movie from streaming to the big screen for the first time. Anyway, [Kathleen Kennedy is gone](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) (though this is still obviously her Baby Yoda) and Dave Filoni is in place; a good transition as [he co-wrote this film](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FMandalorian%5Fand%5FGrogu?ref=spyglass.org). His animated work has been generally excellent (including the current *Maul*!) but it's also a bit [too in-the-weeds](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte/) for [the mass audience](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/). Can he keep *Star Wars* [truly mainstream](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-mostly-sucked/)? Next summer's *Starfighter* – well-timed for the 50th anniversary of the original movie, seems to have a [decidedly](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184067078/the-on-time-and-on-budget-jedi?ref=spyglass.org) better vibe around it. Could it be the start of a new trilogy? [Something else](https://spyglass.org/new-star-wars-maybe/)? [Moar](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2euDqOvkRw&ref=spyglass.org) *Andor*! Filoni ([and Josh D'Amaro](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/the-damaro-kingdom?ref=spyglass.org)) is going to need to tackle it [at some point](https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-x/)... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/disney-hopes-the-mandalorian-and-grogu-revives-star-wars-in-theaters?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ### I Wrote... Did NVIDIA just post the most profitable quarter in corporate history? Let's dive in... [NVIDIA’s Profit CrownJensen Huang just took the throne from Apple, at least in the US…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--10_49_43-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/) ### I Quote... > "I have a million ideas, from lab drug discovery to game design. I'd love to have some free engineers to go and do those kinds of things. I think it's a lack of imagination — and a lack of understanding of what's really going to happen." – **Demis Hassabis**, [talking about](https://www.wired.com/story/demis-hassabis-ai-layoffs-deepmind-google-io/?ref=spyglass.org) the movement to lay off engineers and replace their productivity with AI. It's one of those quotes you certainly hope doesn't come back to bite if Google itself feels the need to follow [much of the rest of the industry](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/technology/meta-layoffs-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) and [do such layoffs](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) (at some point, there will probably be pressure from Wall Street if nothing else). ### Asides... - Perhaps not the best omen that **SpaceX** had to postpone the **Starship** launch, clearly timed around the S-1 launch. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/15c61eaf-e592-483b-8f06-8e2d126276d5?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Xbox, [sorry](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-luddites-an-elon-openai-verdict-big-techs-emissary-movement-apples-dinged-can-strategy-siri-heads-back-to-beta-the-great-sf-ai-divide/#:~:text=With%20work%20still%20underway%20to%20make%20it%20great%20again%2C%20Microsoft%20has%20seemingly%20officially%20made%20Xbox%20%27XBOX%27%20again.%20%5BVerge%5D) **XBOX**, keeps making fast, smart moves to [save](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) the business, bringing on **Matthew Ball** and **Scott Van Vliet**. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/report/934687/xbox-matthew-ball-strategy-officer-hire?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - [More](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) **equity** for the **government**, this time in **quantum** computing stocks – including, most notably, **IBM** (though they'll be making a new, standalone quantum company, **Anderon**)... **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/quantum-stocks--us-taking-equity-stakes.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - In the latest twist on the [long and winding](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/?ref=inklings-newsletter) road to [unwind](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) **Manus** from **Meta**, the co-founders may **raise** $1B+ to try to **buy it back**. [Still sounds](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/?ref=inklings-newsletter)... extremely complicated. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-21/manus-weighs-raising-1-billion-to-unwind-meta-takeover?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - In other "**hackquisition**" [news](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/), **Google** is still at it, paying "roughly" $100M to buy some **Contextual AI** staff and naturally, license their technology. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/google-hires-staff-from-bezos-backed-contextual-ai-in-licensing-deal?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Even **Apple** has been dipping their toes in such waters, buying some talent and "non-exclusive license" rights from **Animato** for virtual avatars. **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/05/19/apple-strikes-talent-and-ip-deal-with-virtual-avatar-startup-animato/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I've [long wondered](https://spyglass.org/the/) if/when **Andrej Karpathy** might join [the OpenAI "Constellation"](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) of companies and raise his own mega round. As it turns out, he's joining **Anthropic** [instead](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/andrej-karpathy-joins-anthropic?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Obviously huge validation for them. And a big black eye for [both OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/) [and Elon Musk](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/). **\[**[**@karpathy**](https://x.com/i/web/status/2056753169888334312?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Quote... > "I didn’t want the second or the third in the company, I wanted only the top, and they’re here today to pay respects to you and to China." – **US President Donald Trump** to Chinese president Xi Jinping [during their meeting in Beijing](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/business/economy/trump-china-trip-ceos-tesla-musk.html?ref=spyglass.org) with yes, many tech CEOs in tow. Just a few days ago, [I wondered](https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-luddites-an-elon-openai-verdict-big-techs-emissary-movement-apples-dinged-can-strategy-siri-heads-back-to-beta-the-great-sf-ai-divide/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20Big%20Tech%27s%20Emissary%20Movement) if the tech company CEOs weren't starting to "outsource" their dealings with Trump to other "emissaries" on their teams, and if that in turn might annoy Trump. Well, I think we have our answer... See also: [the notion that](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/21/trump-ai-order-sacks-00933295?ref=spyglass.org) Trump may have postponed the AI model executive order signing in part because a lot of the CEOs wouldn't be there and were sending "lower executives" in their place... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• SpaceX's 'Fast Entry' to the Market** ****• Bezos on the Melania Doc** ****• SpaceX to Act Fast to Complete Cursor** ****• Murdoch Buys Vox** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The Great AI IPO Race URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-ipo-race/ Last updated: 2026-09-11T17:04:28.000Z Yesterday afternoon, [news broke](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-ipo-filing-date-0ec95af5?ref=spyglass.org) that OpenAI was preparing a confidential filing for an IPO. This was a few hours before the stock market closed for the day after which SpaceX [filed](https://www.techmeme.com/260423/p14?ref=spyglass.org#a260423p14) their first public [S-1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm?ref=spyglass.org). Shortly thereafter, [word leaked](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-propel-anthropic-into-its-first-profitable-quarter-7edbf2f4?ref=spyglass.org) about Anthropic's updated financials – notably that the insane growth they're seeing meant that they were likely to turn *a profit* this quarter well ahead of previous expectations. A profit? In AI?! The fact that these stories all hit in the same general window on the exact same day... to quote [Jeremy Culhane's impression of Tucker Carlson](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/JqsWfbTFGsk?ref=spyglass.org), "Huh. Really?" And I'm supposed to believe this is a coincidence? Really? It feels like jockeying... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### NVIDIA's Profit Crown URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/ Last updated: 2026-09-07T16:40:45.000Z Mirror, mirror on the Wall Street, who's the most profitable of them all? Meaning, what's the most profitable quarter any company has ever had? Following [NVIDIA's (once again) blockbuster earnings yesterday](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2027?ref=spyglass.org), I had a feeling they may had just broken the all-time record. They were close last quarter, with only a Saudi Aramco quarter from 2022 (shortly after the Ukraine war broke out, sending oil prices surging) seemingly ahead of them. Yes, they had even managed to top Apple's insanely great most recent holiday quarter. So this latest quarter for NVIDIA with new all-time highs must be the best, [right](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DYk6ZUhCDrw?ref=spyglass.org)? This is a question which is not as straightforward as you might imagine. So much so that even AI struggles with it a bit (mainly due to the data cut-offs, forcing web searches to augment any lists with newer data). Further, there are different ways that different companies report profit (I'll get to that). Anyway, I've done the legwork and helped guide some AI friends to what I think is the answer. From a pure operating profit, Saudi Aramco's Q2 2022 likely remains king. But that too is quite complicated and perhaps a bit unfair given the whole state-owned monopoly thing. So if we want to just make it a bit cleaner and just consider corporate America. Yes, NVIDIA takes the crown. **$53.5B in operating profit** in the just-reported Q1 fiscal 2027 is the record holder, just beating out Apple's Q1 fiscal 2026 (which yes, is their most recent holiday quarter, and technically would have lined up with NVIDIA's Q4 fiscal 2026 – again, complicated) of $50.9B. Let's just take a moment to sit on that number. $53.5B in profit. In one quarter. Earned by one company. Okay, moving on. [I had previously thought](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/nvidias-43b-profit?ref=spyglass.org) NVIDIA had overtaken Apple in profit last quarter, but there I was looking at net income. That number, at least when it comes to GAAP standards, is bullshit. No less than [Warren Buffett has long harped](https://www.wsj.com/opinion/warren-buffett-is-right-gaap-is-worse-than-useless-taxes-berkshire-hathaway-7713a43d?ref=spyglass.org) on this because Berkshire Hathaway's business involves investing in other companies and the accounting principles dictate you have to mark such investments to market when you report earnings. This means that Berkshire's "profit" swings wildly based off of how their holdings are valued. Of course, that's not profit in money you actually *make* – unless you sell your holdings, of course – but simply the *value* of it. This has come into play in the tech world [in recent years](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) because of the investments the Big Tech companies are making. This has actually long been the case – I worked for over a decade at Google's venture arm which yes, made outside investments that from time to time would move the net income needle for Alphabet – but the difference is the size and scope of [these investments in AI](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/). Case in point: the actual record holder when it comes to net income for a quarter is not NVIDIA. Nor Apple. It's not even Saudi Aramco! [**It's Google**](https://x.com/sciwizam/status/2057229835445956824?ref=spyglass.org)**.** Last quarter, the company wowed Wall Street in reporting a staggering $62.6B in net income. It was so far above and beyond analyst expectations that everyone pretty quickly realized what was going on. That surge had little to do with Google's underlying business (which, to be fair, remained great) and everything to do with one or two massive mark-ups in large Alphabet holdings. Namely, Anthropic and SpaceX. A full $36.9B of that $62.6B – *more than half* – was a result of those mark-ups.[1](#one) Again, that's silly since Alphabet didn't actually see any of that $36.9B come into their bank accounts. It's simply a paper gain. Yes, they could have sold it, but they didn't. Also selling those stakes would have brought a massive tax bill which would have cut those numbers significantly as well. Sure, they could leverage those holdings I suppose, but it's Google, they don't need such leverage. So until they sell those holdings and get the actual proceeds,[2](#two) it's just a weird way to talk about profits. 🤑 Oh by the way, the number two company all-time on the quarterly net income list? Also not NVIDIA or even Saudi Aramco, but ****Fannie Mae**! In Q1 2013 after the financial crisis, a tax credit led to a $50B+ surge in net income. Again, silly. Anyway, back to the land of *actual* profits, NVIDIA is now king. Again, at least in corporate America. Just to note the Saudi Aramco situation, it's likely that in that Q2 2022 quarter that they booked something along the lines of $80B - $90B in operating profit.[3](#three) Yes, wild. But again because of their structure, a huge portion flowed back to state royalties and taxes immediately. That left them with a "mere" reported $48.4B in net income. Speaking of, because NVIDIA is now [by far the most active corporate investor](https://www.ft.com/content/c6b362b8-ab6b-4723-af48-28082bdfcac2?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) – far outstripping Alphabet at this point – their numbers are likely to be all over the place in the coming quarters and years. Because it's a relatively new operation for them (at least at scale) and more so because of the insane growth of the actual underlying business, the paper gains/losses haven't had a big impact on the numbers *yet* for NVIDIA. Though they did boost net income this quarter in a way that is visible. When everything is up and to the right, this obviously looks great – including on the all-important earnings-per-share (EPS) line. But if the market turns and/or some of those investments start to lose steam and value... just be ready. For now, just from a pure operating profit perspective, NVIDIA is still growing an absolutely staggering 147% year-on-year. Even if that slows quite a bit (as the law of large numbers must dictate at some point, though NVIDIA keeps pushing those limits!), we could be looking at $100B in quarterly earnings for NVIDIA in relatively short order. At that point, there would be no question who is king of the profit hill. **One more thing:** I would just [continue to point out](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) how much of NVIDIA's business is built on the back of Big Tech. In a way, they're basically vacuuming up all of their cash flow (aside from Apple, [of course](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/)). This is great for NVIDIA given the current state of things, but if something shifts... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/spymoneynividia-1.png) --- **Update July 7, 2026**: Well that profit crown didn't last long for NVIDIA. But it wasn't Apple that took it back – it was Samsung! [The Most Profitable Company Is... Samsung?Their chip business pushes them past Apple – and even NVIDIA!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-90a4c5ea-594d-4e41-91f0-86c52e14d61b.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-7--2026--10_22_11-AM-8608d6f9-e3ab-4e0b-ac45-3351698f9396.png)](https://spyglass.org/samsung-profit/) --- 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AIOn paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burn…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_anptfianptfianpt-1-26e75982a206c15cf37141c81cd18682035c59064b5fd0a262b1ce560f745511.png)](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) [Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIAHow do you become a $5T company? It’s simple, really…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_hammer_made_of_cash_illustration_16x9_--ar_169_--v_1fb7603b-a302-4795-aada-42a5ddf1dfd6_1-8093be05bd19fb605ce8725b6270af9c85c60f5f2f98dee5263d9f1c11667219.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) --- 1 And, I should note, it's going to happen again soon when SpaceX goes public in June. And then when Anthropic goes public after that... [↩](#) 2 Again, see: said IPOs – though we'll see if Google exits as quickly as they can given [the deals they're working on](https://www.wsj.com/tech/spacex-google-in-talks-to-explore-data-centers-in-orbit-7b7799e2?ref=spyglass.org) to use SpaceX rockets to get to their own payloads to space! It will likely remain a very strategic investment. Perhaps [Anthropic too](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Google%27s%20%28Up%20To%29%20%2440B%20Anthropic%20Investment) for the Cloud and TPU usage! [↩](#) 3 This is a bit opaque without the same type of reporting standards, but can be sort of backed into knowing the low cost of producing a barrel of oil relative to the price surge back then (and knowing the reported net income, guesstimating the cut,taxes, etc). [↩](#) ### Google 'I' Hold the 'O' URL: https://spyglass.org/google-io-2026/ Last updated: 2026-09-07T16:40:13.000Z The weeks and months leading up to [the Google I/O conference](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYSncx9zLIU&ref=spyglass.org) are funny in the Age of AI. Everyone online seems to talk themselves into the notion that Google has fallen behind because they're seemingly more quiet than their rivals. After [a slow start](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/), they were [able to catch up](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/), so why hasn't Google kept their foot on the gas? That's the general sentiment. Then I/O hits and it showcases Google putting their pedal to the metal, zooming back in front of the pack. [At least, that was last year](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). This year was a bit different. While yesterday's keynote showed the company effectively using their size and scale advantages with a wide array of announcements across a huge swath of services (many of which have *billions* of users – 13 of them now over 1B, as CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted front and center), it also felt a bit underwhelming, if I'm being honest. Perhaps that's just AI as a technology maturing and those of us living with it daily getting naturally numb to the incredible capabilities (as always happens with all technology). But it also feels a bit like Google may need to rethink their strategy around how they handle such roll-outs. I'm not saying they need to ditch I/O, but I do think they'd be wise to make it less of a big public showcase event and more of *an actual developer event*. Google naturally followed Apple down this big keynote path, as did everyone else. And the strategy seemed to work well when Android was combating the iPhone. But the Age of AI is different. And most notably, that includes the cadence of releases. Obviously Google doesn't fully wait for I/O each year to release what they've been cooking up over the past many months. Like every other AI lab, they're constantly pushing out new models and capabilities. But at the same time, unlike the other AI labs, Google clearly also holds some things back in order to make a splash at I/O. Only this year, the cupboard seemed relatively bare. Don't get me wrong, a lot of what they talked about and showcased looked cool. The problem is that almost none of it actually seems ready to roll. As in out. While they did seemingly move the entire stack to **Gemini 3.5 Flash**, the actual frontier model, the Pro variant, clearly isn't ready. To the point where it was only mentioned by Pichai in passing, noting that it would be coming next month. [The audience didn't like this too much](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-io-2026-gemini-3-5-pro-2026-5?ref=spyglass.org). And while it's undoubtedly better to let a model bake longer rather than show it off (let alone push it out) prematurely (just ask Meta to know how that goes), it sort of highlights my point: what's the point of a big, forward-facing single keynote in the Age of AI? You either have to hold stuff back to show it off there, which is bad when your competitors aren't doing that. Or you have to move stuff forward to be able to showcase it – but not ship it – at the event, which is arguably worse. Again, there was a lot of the latter. Nearly everything shown off on stage was either going to be coming later this year or would be rolling out in beta mode to those willing to pay for the 'Ultra' tier of Gemini.[1](#one) If you're just a regular old Gemini user – or even a mere 'Pro' peon – there's not a lot for you to actually try today. I'm not suggesting this will be like the [don't-call-it-vaporware](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) – but [awfully vaporware-y](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) – AI that Apple [talked up](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) at WWDC [two years back](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=Apple%20has%20agreed%20to%20pay%20%24250M%20for%20their%20vaporware%20AI%20ads.%20If%20you%20bought%20an%20iPhone%20that%20Bella%20Ramsey%20promised%20you%20would%20remind%20you%20of%20someone%27s%20name%20in%20a%20pinch%2C%20you%20could%20get%20up%20to%20%2495%20back.%20%5BNYT%5D). But again, Google just held a giant event to talk up a bunch of products and functionality *coming soon*. The other AI labs also do some previewing, but they also don't hold events at the scale of I/O. And their previews are often a result of them being either resource constrained – or they're Anthropic [worried that 'Mythos' could end civilization as we know it](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/). Again, **Gemini 3.5 Pro** seemingly just isn't ready. And that's fine! But maybe hold a smaller Gemini 3.5 press conference say, next month, when it *is* ready? Same with the new **'Omni'** class of models. Again, the new video generation looks good, but it's also clearly a fraction of what Google is hoping to do here. This also felt a bit underbaked in terms of delivery to the public. And even the more limited subset starts by rolling out only to paid users at first. **'Gemini Spark'** – how cold of Google is it to name [their OpenClaw](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/)\-[killer](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%9E%20Google%20Also%20Gunning%20for%20OpenClaw) after [Meta's first attempt](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) to catch up in frontier models? – will come to "trusted testers" first. Then to the 'Ultra' tier. Then to the others at some later point. It will apparently be baked into Chrome "later this summer" but probably not everywhere, and probably not for everyone. **'Android Halo'** is also coming later this year, though no one seems to have any idea what that is beyond the extremely vague mention of agents by Google. ([It may just be a UI tweak for Android?](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/19/android-halo/?ref=spyglass.org)) **Antigravity** did get a "2.0" version launched yesterday, but people seem fairly underwhelmed in the space that's arguably the most competitive and important right now in all of AI? Google perhaps should have waited for 3.5 Pro to ship it? Again, that will be next month, it seems. There are a number of new things coming to **Google Search** itself – almost all of which are coming later. The generative UI? This summer. Agents and mini-apps? This summer. The new shopping capabilities? This summer. Wait a minute. The new voice capabilities demoed for the Gemini Mac app? This summer. Google's new 'Pics' photo editor? This summer. Again, Spark in Chrome? This summer. It almost feels like Google should have instead held an event... this summer. The new '**Daily Brief**' feature in Gemini is apparently rolling out soon, but to paid users at first. At least the new "Neural Expressive" UI seems to be actually live – and looks quite good, I might add! How about the Gemini-powered Smart Glasses – sorry, '**Intelligent Eyewear**'? These have been teased or previewed at least three or four times already, maybe more. Surely they're ready by now to meet Meta in the market, right? Right, if by "now" you mean this Fall. For the '**Audio Glasses**' (yuck branding) at least. The ones with the display in the lens? That's looking like next year. So we'll presumably see them previewed or showcased at least a few more times before they actually ship. Look, I'm being a bit of a jerk here. My point is simply that I'm not sure how much it makes sense to use Google I/O as a showcase in the Age of AI. Things are just moving much too fast (or in some cases, too slow) for a once-a-year big event. I think it makes sense to convene your developer ecosystem in such a way, but just like with Apple's WWDC, these have morphed into being too forward-facing (with the expectations to boot). For actual products (and models), it probably doesn't even make sense to follow Apple's other Fall event (sometimes two) and/or Spring event cadence. Instead, perhaps do what OpenAI does and just convene people when you actually have something to talk about and showcase. Ideally right around when the work is actually ready to roll. **A few more things:** - Interesting that Pichai highlighted Gemini being at 900M MAU, both because that's seemingly right around ChatGPT's most recent metric, but also because like ChatGPT, they'd clearly much rather announce when they hit 1B. It has taken OpenAI quite some time to get there, presumably it won't for Google – as it should be their *14th* such product soon. - Wild that he also used the opening part of the keynote to specifically call out [their CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/)! But that's obviously an attempt to retake such narratives and point out that unlike their competitors, Google is doing the "full stack" build-out here, namely with TPUs (though Amazon can obviously make that case too). - The first Demis Hassabis bit started with a pretty bold bang: "AGI is just a few years away." [In the past](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr0GiSgUvPU&ref=spyglass.org), he's been [far more hedge-y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvT5aaa0r7Q&ref=spyglass.org) there in terms of [timetables](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/17/human-level-ai-will-be-here-in-5-to-10-years-deepmind-ceo-says.html?ref=spyglass.org). I'm sure he wouldn't be pinned down to say "3 years" but to me, "a few" reads like "3 or 4". AGI before 2030? - Again, per above, it felt like Google wanted to come out with a big swing for Omni as their first true ["World Model"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/), but had to pull back a bit. There's definitely the subtext that Hassabis [believes such models](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8E%20World%20Models%2C%20So%20Hot%20Right%20Now) will be the key to unlocking AGI... - The benchmarks that Google showed off for Gemini 3.5 Flash were obviously impressive, but some ratings put out there by others? [Less so](https://x.com/mntruell/status/2056940715201220906?ref=spyglass.org). - Regardless, [the big talking point](https://simonwillison.net/2026/May/19/gemini-35-flash/?ref=spyglass.org) after the keynote seems to be the price [*increase*](https://x.com/theo/status/2056877869780107762?ref=spyglass.org) for such a model. - While there was a lot of [dunking](https://x.com/ShishirShelke1/status/2056792751480717525?ref=spyglass.org) online for Josh Woodward using an iPhone to demo Gemini's agentic capabilities on mobile, I actually think that's a *great* thing – showcasing they care how it works regardless of which ecosystem you're working in. (And that was obviously intentional!) - I'm less clear if [the Codex portion](https://x.com/GergelyOrosz/status/2057054276266885590?ref=spyglass.org) of the Antigravity demo was... - The first major update to the actual Search box in 25 years is obviously a big deal, though it feels like shoving "AI Mode" in there was also a pretty big – and bold – change [last year](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/). And clearly it seems to have worked! So now this is just making permanent that change in behavior they guided... - Hassabis came back out to talk about scientific breakthroughs (again kicking off with "AGI is on the horizon") but also clearly felt the need to address the Mythos titan in the room (without actually naming it), noting that Google has been focused on security for decades. - Hassabis closed out the keynote, not Pichai. Interesting. **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a partner at their venture fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Google did lower the price of the 'Ultra' tier, but it almost felt like a move made knowing how annoying restricting so much new functionality would be, and trying to throw a bone to those who will undoubtedly want to try some of this stuff *now*. [↩](#) ### Inklings #012 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-ai-luddites-an-elon-openai-verdict-big-techs-emissary-movement-apples-dinged-can-strategy-siri-heads-back-to-beta-the-great-sf-ai-divide/ Last updated: 2026-05-18T19:43:06.000Z While it's easy to dismiss those pushing back against AI as "Luddites" – there's actually a far more interesting argument that there are some parallels with the *actual* movement from the 1810s... [Lessons from the LudditesParallels with the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-5f85e06dd8edf9e3b8855f904d7f732ba14a0d903fd0e69a8892e164577b314d.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/cf0bf04d-e724-4604-8737-40a48fce67d3-69a82969079fe6d034e3049eb62634d573e384d86d1765c21b93b6fe90de34d8.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **⚖️** [**Well, There Goes That Dream**](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/18/technology/openai-trial-verdict-altman-musk?smid=url-share&ref=spyglass.org) – I had [a feeling](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Closing%20Time%20for%20Elon%20v.%20OpenAI) the jury deliberation in the Elon vs. OpenAI trial might not last long. [It didn't](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2056431366217105915?ref=spyglass.org) even take two hours for them to unanimously reject Musk's claims on the grounds that he failed to bring them within the statute of limitations. In other words, [everything else](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googlebook-amazon-adds-alexa-ai-as-a-filmmaking-tool-is-microsoft-now-undervalued-who-is-winning-elon-v-openai-openais-7b-man-with-his-own-ai-lab/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Who%20Is%20Winning%20Elon%20v.%20OpenAI%3F) argued and presented in the case didn't matter. What a colossal [waste of time](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2056427462636999032?ref=spyglass.org). Serious question: can citizens of California sue over a waste of tax payer dollars? (ChatGPT doesn't think so – Claude concurs.) And, of course, Elon's lawyers have already announced he'll be appealing. We'll see (and if so, he should [probably](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=Dueling%20Closing%20Quotes...) get a new lawyer?). He wasn't there. Nor was Sam Altman nor Greg Brockman, which was a bit surprising [given](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%20v.%20Elon%20Week%202) their attendance throughout. Hopefully they're back to work. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/18/technology/openai-trial-verdict-altman-musk?smid=url-share&ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💫** [**Big Tech's Emissary Movement**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-14/dina-powell-mccormick-is-becoming-meta-s-global-ambassador?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Given Dina Powell McCormick's previous roles in administrations (including Trump's first term) it obviously [makes sense](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184471593/metas-compute-initiative?ref=spyglass.org) for her to serve as Meta's liaison at political events. But I also wonder if we're not starting to see a shift where the tech leaders [get some distance](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=Tech%20starts%20to%20turn%20on%20Trump) from the administration (after doing [everything](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) to be [as close](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) as [possible](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/)) as we head towards the midterms (and tip into Trump's "lame duck" era). Beyond McCormick spelling Zuck, Tim Cook is [continuing](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) his duties in this regard even though he's [handing over](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) the CEO reigns to John Ternus this year. Might we see more of say, Brad Smith instead of Satya Nadella? In a way, Amazon and Google have been doing this already with founders Jeff Bezos and Sergey Brin sometimes stepping into such a role in place of Andy Jassy and Sundar Pichai, respectively. If Trump stops getting CEOs and gets more and more of these emissaries, will he [start](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/) to get annoyed? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-14/dina-powell-mccormick-is-becoming-meta-s-global-ambassador?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🥫** [**Apple's 'Dinged Can' Strategy**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-is-making-hit-products-and-high-profits-from-imperfect-chips-d32c21d8?ref=spyglass.org) – When I was a kid – okay, not a *kid*, but younger – I was told that Keystone Light was the same as Coors Light but cheaper because they used cans that were 'dinged' in the process. As it turns out, that's not true. But it is essentially what Apple is doing with the MacBook Neo. Essentially, they're using A18 Pro chips that ended up slightly defective, but fine if you simply shut off one (graphics) core. And actually, this is a strategy that Apple has long leveraged with various chips (starting with Apple TV and continuing on to HomePod, and even less expensive iPhones). This is highlighted now because the Neo is [proving](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) so popular that Apple ran out of defective chips to use, so they're reportedly having to spin up new processes to make more chips – many of which obviously *won't* be defective, but they may "bin" on purpose anyway to keep the product the same. Sort of a fun/weird problem to have (and especially complicated for Apple right now because NVIDIA now [commands](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Apple%20%2B%20Intel%20Details) so much of TSMC's time – hence, [the new Intel deal](https://spyglass.org/inklings-microsofts-early-openai-dealings-apple-intel-have-a-deal-barnes-noble-comeback-rip-ted-turner-elon-musks-colossus-strategy-openais-next-microsoft-fight/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%9D%20Apple%20%26%20Intel%20Have%20a%20Deal...%20For%20Something)!). By the way, while it wasn't true of Coors cans, it is obviously true of a lot of fruit (how fitting!), where "deformed" (or dinged!) supplies move to other places to sell for less... **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-is-making-hit-products-and-high-profits-from-imperfect-chips-d32c21d8?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ### I Quote... > "I have my AI agent talking to their AI agent to request these refunds, which is quite fun." – **Tyler Cadwell**, a founder and developer [talking about](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/why-claude-ai-agents-are-driving-record-mac-mini-demand?ref=spyglass.org) his use of tools such as OpenClaw to run his startup. While much of the talk has been about tasking agents to do work to date, when agents start talking to *other agents* and [simply send you any "human do-dos"](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/), things could start to get really interesting... ### Asides... - Because we can't have a Friday [without an](https://spyglass.org/dossier-005-jensen-roars/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9A%AA%20OpenAI%20Shedding%20Executives) **OpenAI** news dump, **Greg Brockman** is now officially in charge of **product**, after temporarily taking the role with Fidji Simo's [medical leave of absence](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/?ref=from-afar-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%80%20OpenAI%20Shuffles%20Leadership). They make a point of saying she's still [coming back](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/), but... [to do what](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/)? **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-reorg-greg-brockman-product/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - With work still [underway](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B9%EF%B8%8F%20A%20Quick%20Vibe%20Shift%20at%20Xbox) to make it [great again](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/), **Microsoft** has seemingly officially made Xbox '**XBOX**' again. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/931918/microsoft-xbox-rebrand-caps?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Replit** was able to "work things out" with **Apple** over the approval of "**vibe coding**" within their app. A preview of more to come at WWDC? **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/05/15/iphone-vibe-coding-app-ships-first-update-in-four-months-after-app-store-review-issue/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - While Bill Ackman may be [buying](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=Damnit%2C%20just%20as%20I%20make%20the%20case%20that%20Microsoft%27s%20stock%20is%20undervalued%2C%20Bill%20Ackman%20storms%20in%20to%20ruin%20the%20moment.%20While%20some%20follow%20the%20%22Inverse%20Cramer%22%20model%2C%20and%20you%20seemingly%20can%27t%20go%20wrong%20betting%20against%20whatever%20Cathie%20Wood%20is%20doing%2C%20I%20adhere%20to%20an%20Anti%2DAckman%20playbook.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) up **Microsoft** **stock**, guess who is *selling*? Another **Bill**. **Gates**. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/gates-foundation-sells-remaining-microsoft-stake?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The first name rumored to be auditioning for **James Bond** *after* Amazon's official announcement that [casting has begun](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%AB%20Amazon%20Casts%20the%20Woman%20Who%20Will%20Cast%20Bond)? **Tom Francis** – whom you probably don't know (I didn't), but that's largely because he's mainly known for his theater work. He's only 26\. Interesting... **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-tom-francis-audition-amazon-mgm-1236749910/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... Fine, [here's a pic of Tom](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-tom-francis-audition-amazon-mgm-1236749910/?ref=spyglass.org), only because it's so comically an aspirational James Bond shot... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/GettyImages-2219219944.webp)](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-tom-francis-audition-amazon-mgm-1236749910/?ref=spyglass.org) Some real Jeremy Allen White vibes? --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Siri Heads Back to "Beta"** ****• The Great SF AI Divide** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Lessons from the Luddites URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-luddites/ Last updated: 2026-09-04T06:43:20.000Z I've long known and used the term "[Luddite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite?ref=spyglass.org)". But I really only knew it in the generic, general sense in which it is used in modern times: a phrase leveled against someone who is opposed to new technology.[1](#one) But the reality is actually far more nuanced and interesting, especially as it relates to our current age. It naturally popped into my mind yesterday when my entire social feed was suddenly stuffed [with clips](https://x.com/Kantrowitz/status/2056042363659677791?ref=spyglass.org) of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt's commencement speech at The University of Arizona. The speech is going viral, but not in the way that Schmidt might have hoped – not in the way that Steve Jobs' Stanford commencement speech [continues to be viral](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/) some 20 years after it was given. No, Schmidt's speech is making the rounds because of the reaction from the crowd. That is, the boos. So are these students simply Luddites? Well no, not exactly. But also perhaps in a way. And not the modern pejorative way, but closer to the literal way... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Inklings #011 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-v-apple-closing-of-elon-v-openai-fall-of-the-twitter-clones-apple-intel-details-anthropic-at-900b-gold-casting-bond/ Last updated: 2026-05-15T22:24:39.000Z Never, ever a dull moment with OpenAI. And so with their big trial just wrapping up (see: below), it seems it was time to pick another fight. Oh boy I hope they know what they're doing here (I'm not sure they do)... [OpenAI Picks An Apple FightWith Apple expanding beyond ChatGPT, here’s the finger-pointing over what could have been if Siri didn’t suck…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-14.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-15--2026--11_29_41-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **⚖️** [**Closing Time for Elon v. OpenAI**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/931006/musk-v-altman-closing-arguments-analysis?ref=spyglass.org) **–** The closing arguments have been made. The final quotes given (see: below). Jury deliberation starts on Monday. This is a good list of *actual* takeaways from the trial ([and a good title!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGytDsqkQY8&ref=spyglass.org)) by Elizabeth Lopatto. Is [anything](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googlebook-amazon-adds-alexa-ai-as-a-filmmaking-tool-is-microsoft-now-undervalued-who-is-winning-elon-v-openai-openais-7b-man-with-his-own-ai-lab/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Who%20Is%20Winning%20Elon%20v.%20OpenAI%3F) going to ultimately come from this – I mean, are we even going to get past [the statute of limitations element](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/musk-openai-microsoft-lawyers-deliver-closing-statements?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)? – beyond [embarrassment](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%20v.%20Elon%20Week%202) for pretty much all [involved](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Elon%20vs.%20OpenAI%2C%20the%20Trial)? Directionally, very bad, [you might say](https://www.techemails.com/p/sam-altman-texts-mira-murati?hide%5Fintro%5Fpopup=true&ref=spyglass.org). Elon couldn't even be bothered to stick around to see it through to the end, instead taking off to China with [his frenemy](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/), the President of the United States. At least we'll always have the [emails](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/). And journal entries. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/931006/musk-v-altman-closing-arguments-analysis?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🐦** [**Fall of the Twitter Clones**](https://www.platformer.news/threads-bluesky-x-usage-utopia-twitter-clones/?ref=platformer-newsletter) **–** If nothing else, fun to read each of the companies try to respond to the data presented to them by Casey Newton that indicates their growth may not only be over, they may be in *decline*. They range from Meta giving their sort of typical condescending denial to Bluesky giving the friendly acknowledgment that growth has dropped, but not as bad as these numbers indicate. Regardless of the merit of the third-party numbers, certainly the trends are interesting and would seem to be backed up anecdotally by many. But the bigger point may be Casey's thought that while Bluesky and Threads may have successfully [cloned](https://spyglass.org/bluesky-is-twitters-heir-apparent/) Twitter to [varying](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/#:~:text=Threads%20passes%20Xitter%20in%20active%20users) degrees, ultimately, it may not matter, as the time of text-based social networks is over. The social entertainment is now all video, all the time, while information is increasingly coming at us via AI-generated round-ups [and push notifications](https://spyglass.org/pushy-news/). As for Twitter itself? It's now [a subsidiary](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) of a subsidiary [of a space company](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/). Bye, bye birdy. **\[**[**Platformer**](https://www.platformer.news/threads-bluesky-x-usage-utopia-twitter-clones/?ref=platformer-newsletter) **🔒\]** **🍪** [**Apple + Intel Details**](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2054987772289810884?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While everyone [knows](https://spyglass.org/inklings-microsofts-early-openai-dealings-apple-intel-have-a-deal-barnes-noble-comeback-rip-ted-turner-elon-musks-colossus-strategy-openais-next-microsoft-fight/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%9D%20Apple%20%26%20Intel%20Have%20a%20Deal...%20For%20Something) that Apple has signed up to work with Intel, Ming-Chi Kuo seemingly has some details – including that the initial work has already kicked off for "low-end/legacy" chips for the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. In other words, the cutting-edge chips will still be made by TSMC, but Intel will take up some of the older chip workload (pretty much as expected, though it wasn't entirely clear [at first](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) if Intel would [just](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/) be used for tangential chips and not the main CPUs – but it will be the main CPUs, [mostly for iPhones](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Can%20Intel%20Land%20the%20iPhone%3F)). Testing will happen this year, with a ramp in 2027 and 2028\. TSMC will still handle "90% of supply share" but still, it's a huge validation for Intel's foundry, obviously. There is no bigger name than Apple. Well, there's maybe one bigger name now, and it's because of NVIDIA that Apple must diversify. Apple is no longer the dominant force in chips that can dictate everything... Who will be next to let Intel pick up some of their chip slack? **\[**[**@mingchikuo**](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2054987772289810884?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💸** [**Anthropic at $900B+**](https://www.ft.com/content/9deae3c6-716d-4f4d-8b09-434d8519f847?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **–** A real "changing of the guard" moment is upon us, it would seem. While Claude picked up a lot of usage momentum [after DoD-Gate](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/), and it seems like they may have passed OpenAI in terms of ARR (though yes, they measure it a bit differently), this would be the external validation. And really sort of wild given the gap between the two in terms of valuation just a year ago. That's how fast things can change in AI – *just three months ago*, the company raised at $350B. Presumably there's an intention to stay below the $1T mark ahead of any would-be IPO (though that clearly didn't matter to Elon Musk [for SpaceX](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/)!). Sam Altman [cannot](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) be [happy](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) about the investor overlap here. Also, it seems like [Google](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Google%27s%20%28Up%20To%29%20%2440B%20Anthropic%20Investment) and [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Amazon%27s%20%2425B%20Anthropic%20Investment) squeezed their [latest](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) cash piles into the last round valuation just in the nick of time... **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/9deae3c6-716d-4f4d-8b09-434d8519f847?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🔫** [**Amazon Casts the Woman Who Will Cast Bond**](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-auditions-start-casting-director-nina-gold-1236749108/?ref=spyglass.org) – Nina Gold is touted as the woman who filled out *Game of Thrones*, but just as impressive – arguably more so – would be her work on *The Crown*. She also has done the past few *Star Wars* films, which are [obviously problematic](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/), but hardly for the casting choices. Sort of [wild/fun](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2055022951645192214?ref=spyglass.org) that Amazon made a big to-do about this hire. I guess to [calm](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,I%20Quote...,-%22Now%2C%20I%20know) rampant speculation ([of which](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) [I'm guilty too](https://spyglass.org/back-to-basics-bond/)) and to let everyone know the hunt is now [truly](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) underway. I'd guess we get an announcement this summer. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-auditions-start-casting-director-nina-gold-1236749108/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### Dueling Closing Quotes... > "Mr Musk has tried to persuade you that his years-ago donations to OpenAI came with strings attached, strong enough to last for ever, to tie OpenAI in knots as it pursued its mission." – **Sarah Eddy**, OpenAI's lawyer [in her closing remarks to the jury](https://www.ft.com/content/7146fb5b-18e3-4577-8dbf-aad0219a29fe?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). Strings to knots. Nice. > "Imagine that you’re on a hike, and you come upon one of those wooden bridges that you see on a trail, and it’s over a gorge. There’s a river that’s 100 feet below and it looks a little scary, but a woman standing by the entry to the bridge says, 'Don’t worry, the bridge is built on Sam Altman’s version of the truth.' Would you walk across that bridge? I don’t think many people would." – **Steve Molo**, Elon Musk's lawyer [in his closing remarks to the jury](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/technology/openai-trial-elon-musk-sam-altman.html?ref=spyglass.org). A hike, with a wooden bridge, built on... Sam Altman's truth? Less nice. --- ### Asides... - Sort of wild how little **AGI** was brought up during the **Musk/OpenAI trial** given how core it was to the Microsoft deal until [very recently](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/). Then again, that's [probably for the best](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) given it would be non-technical lawyers trying to explain the concept which is [famously nebulous](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/) to jurors... **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/agi-elephant-musk-v-openai-courtroom?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Damnit, just as [I make the case](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googlebook-amazon-adds-alexa-ai-as-a-filmmaking-tool-is-microsoft-now-undervalued-who-is-winning-elon-v-openai-openais-7b-man-with-his-own-ai-lab/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%89%20Is%20Microsoft%20Now%20Undervalued%3F) that **Microsoft's** **stock** is undervalued, **Bill Ackman** storms in to ruin the moment. While some follow the ["Inverse Cramer"](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/s/Inverse%20Cramer/?ref=spyglass.org) model, and you seemingly can't go wrong [betting against](https://x.com/Restructuring%5F%5F/status/2054307096468865399?ref=spyglass.org) whatever Cathie Wood is doing, I adhere to an Anti-Ackman [playbook](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DImU8Kfo-Z2/a-brutal-closing-httpswwwwsjcomfinancebillionaire-investor-bill-ackman-lays-out-?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/pershing-square-has-taken-new-stake-in-microsoft-ackman-says?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The fact that **Jensen Huang** had to score a last-minute invite to **China** and that *still* didn't result in the country agreeing to allow his chips to enter the country (legally) seems to suggest that this year's "[DeepSeek Moment](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/)" truly is [the ability](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/#:~:text=%5BAxios%5D-,%F0%9F%90%B3%20DeepSeek%20V4,-%E2%80%93%20Do%20you) to [use their own chips](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/china-semiconductor-ai-deepseek.html?ref=spyglass.org) (at least for inference). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/business/nvidia-china-chips.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Microsoft** is going to rip **Claude Code** out of employee's hands to try to make **Copilot CLI** better. I'm sure that will go over well. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/930447/microsoft-claude-code-discontinued-notepad?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - About as well as **Meta** forcing their employee base to share their **screens** to help catch up in coding/agentic workflows – which has a real "digging their own graves" vibe (especially [ahead of layoffs](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Fear%20%26%20Loathing%20in%20Big%20Tech%20Cafeterias)). **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/meta-layoffs-bad-vibes-mark-zuckerberg-ai/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Meanwhile, **xAI** also shipping their first **coding agent**, which is mostly surprising given that it sounds [more like](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexai-exodus-50-recent-exits-meta-thinking-machines-hire-staff?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **exAI** right now. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/musk-s-xai-unveils-first-coding-agent-in-bid-to-rival-anthropic?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Conan O'Brien** will host a third straight **Oscars** – the first such feat since Billy Crystal in the early 90s. Something nice about such continuity. Also, this will be the 99th version, right before the 100th in 2028 – which will also be the last on ABC before [they move to YouTube](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/media/conan-obrien-oscars-host-2027.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... The [new Android 17 emoji](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/12/android-17-emoji-redesign/?ref=spyglass.org) look pretty good. Certainly better than before. And yes, definitely more iOS-like. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/android-17-emoji-1.webp)](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/12/android-17-emoji-redesign/?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"Closing Time" by Semisonic**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGytDsqkQY8&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Camden Eazy Hazy IPA**](https://camdentownbrewery.com/products/eazy-ipa?ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### OpenAI Picks An Apple Fight URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-picks-an-apple-fight/ Last updated: 2026-09-04T06:43:01.000Z Guys. It’s the last day of [your big, highly-publicized](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/) and [insanely-scrutinized](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%20v.%20Elon%20Week%202) trial [against](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Elon%20vs.%20OpenAI%2C%20the%20Trial) your [former co-founder](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googlebook-amazon-adds-alexa-ai-as-a-filmmaking-tool-is-microsoft-now-undervalued-who-is-winning-elon-v-openai-openais-7b-man-with-his-own-ai-lab/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Who%20Is%20Winning%20Elon%20v.%20OpenAI%3F) — *who just happens to be the richest person in the world*. Can you just, I don’t know, wait a while until you get into another high profile fight? Maybe a year? How about a month? Can we at least get a week breather? A few *hours*? At this point, I think we have to recognize that OpenAI is going to be one of those companies that is simply always at war. They won’t need a “peacetime CEO” because there will never be peace. When one battle ends, [the next begins](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/). Elon Musk, the said co-founder. Anthropic, started by former OpenAI folks, [of course](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/). Microsoft, [long the](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) main benefactor. I mean, the entire company was basically founded to [combat Google](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). And now Apple. Yes, OpenAI is at least *thinking* about legal action against the iPhone maker, [reports *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/openai-apple-partnership-frays-setting-up-possible-legal-fight?ref=spyglass.org). And [*The Financial Times*](https://www.ft.com/content/e6505cf8-9e86-4053-bd34-6ed376c74443?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). And [*The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-apple-partnership-sours?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). And [*The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/technology/openai-apple-legal-action.html?ref=spyglass.org). And undoubtedly others. Because it sure seems like OpenAI sources are willing to talk to anyone and everyone about such prospects. It's almost like they held an anonymous press conference on the matter. The sources include at least one OpenAI "executive" – albeit an unnamed one. Clearly, they are trying to send a message. This is so wild that you almost have to wonder: has anyone at OpenAI ever met anyone at Apple before? This method of communication is not going to go over well in Cupertino. Why not just hurl a flaming bag of dog shit on to the steps of [1 Infinite Loop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%5FInfinite%5FLoop%5Fcampus?ref=spyglass.org)? Here's Mark Gurman:[1](#one) > Apple Inc.’s two-year-old partnership with OpenAI has become strained, according to people familiar with the matter, with the AI startup failing to see the expected benefits from the deal and now preparing possible legal action. > > OpenAI lawyers are actively working with an outside legal firm on a range of options that could be formally executed in the near future, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. > > That could include sending the iPhone maker a notice alleging breach of contract without necessarily filing a full lawsuit at the outset, according to the people. OpenAI enlisted the outside firm in recent days to help with the situation. Those deliberations are no longer private. So OpenAI better hope any contract they have in place with Apple is pretty ironclad. But the notion that they're merely *thinking about* sending Apple a notice about a breach of contract – and the fact that they're using this public negotiation maneuver – suggests that it may not be. Per the reports, it sounds like OpenAI has been trying to rework their deal with Apple in recent months, but clearly such talks have gone nowhere. So they could sue, or threaten to sue, but floating that idea out there ahead of actually doing either... well, isn't the best look. OpenAI likely thinks appealing to the public – and perhaps politicians?[2](#two) – will help them here. Again, have they met Apple? > OpenAI believed that the companies’ partnership, which wove ChatGPT into Apple software, would coax more users into subscribing to the chatbot. It also expected deeper integration across more Apple apps and prime placement within the Siri assistant. > > Instead, Apple’s use of OpenAI technology across its operating systems remains limited, and features can be hard to find. > > “We have done everything from a product perspective,” said an OpenAI executive who asked not to be identified. “They have not, and worse, they haven’t even made an honest effort.” I mean, can you sue someone for a deal not living up to expectations?[3](#three) I'm going to go ahead and guess that Apple's lawyers would not have agreed to terms that could possibly put them in such a position. The real problem is that ChatGPT integration within Siri *did* ship and... it just sort of fell flat? That was certainly more on Apple because it was buried inside of Apple's famously problematic AI efforts. But I'm just not sure you can literally litigate such product decisions and failures. Was OpenAI promised very specific placement they didn't get? Were they promised some sort of minimum usage guarantees? There famously was [no money explicitly changing hands](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-apple-money/) in the deal, so was there some sort of revenue share guidance that was written down at some point? Again, hard to see how Apple would paper any of that. The reality is that it sounds less like an Apple problem and more like one of sour grapes. Did the company flub their AI efforts to start? [For sure](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). Did that hurt OpenAI? Perhaps – if AI on the iPhone was awesome, more usage would probably have equated to more ChatGPT usage. But we obviously can't know that for sure. I'm sympathetic to the expectations that OpenAI clearly had here (and perhaps Apple even shared) that this deal could have been a massive moment for ChatGPT, certainly for the subscription side, [because I thought it would be too](https://spyglass.org/openai-ios-chatgpt-upgrade/)! It just didn't play out that way. And so perhaps OpenAI is trying to latch on to the lawsuit Apple [just settled](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/technology/apple-intelligence-lawsuit-settlement.html?ref=spyglass.org) around advertising AI features [that never shipped](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=Apple%20has%20agreed%20to%20pay%20%24250M%20for%20their%20vaporware%20AI%20ads.%20If%20you%20bought%20an%20iPhone%20that%20Bella%20Ramsey%20promised%20you%20would%20remind%20you%20of%20someone%27s%20name%20in%20a%20pinch%2C%20you%20could%20get%20up%20to%20%2495%20back.%20%5BNYT%5D)? It's just far more likely that the partnership failed to live up to some loose and vague expectations – on both sides. Sure, that's undoubtedly more on Apple. They dashed OpenAI's hopes and dreams of [a Google Search-like deal](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/). But can I sue *HBO* over the final season of *Game of Thrones*? [I can try](https://www.quora.com/Could-someone-sue-HBO-over-Game-of-Thrones-final-season?ref=spyglass.org)! It seems pretty clear that this is all timed to get ahead of WWDC in a few weeks. There, Apple is expected to formally unveil their new AI work, notably the new Siri, [now powered by](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) models distilled from Google's Gemini. And a range of [new AI options](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%BE%20Apple%27s%20Choose%2DYour%2DOwn%2DAI%20Adventure), including integrations with Anthropic's Claude and perhaps any other AI service a user chooses to download. With the former, OpenAI would really like us to know they had no interest in that level of partnership: > OpenAI wasn’t interested in working with Apple on the new models because it felt burned by the initial relationship, according to the people. “Apple has so much market power that they can dictate terms,” the executive said. “We already took this leap of faith with you, and it didn’t work out well.” Which is a weird statement because it reads more like they didn't like Apple's *terms* for such an arrangement more so than they were upset about the previous collaboration. Then again, per earlier reporting ([also from Gurman](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-22/apple-explores-using-google-gemini-ai-to-power-revamped-siri?ref=spyglass.org)), Anthropic may have been Apple's preferred partner for their AI work after [an internal "bake off"](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/), but terms were also the sticking point there. It's [not clear if](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) OpenAI was in second or third place in that scenario. They'd clearly like us to believe they were in second (or first!) but Apple would sure like us to believe that Google was in first, so... As for the other app-based integration: > The OpenAI executive said that Apple’s embrace of other AI providers isn’t driving the company’s legal action since the partnership wasn’t meant to be exclusive from the start. Which is *also* a funny statement because it reads like they're cool with that because they have to be, legally. That lack of exclusivity is undoubtedly something Apple papered! To be fair, it does seem like the new "extension"-based integration for third-party AI providers could end up being better than the current situation, simply because it sounds like functionality and discovery will be [less buried](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/). And that means OpenAI could ultimately get out of Apple what they thought they were going to in their original deal. But yes, they'll have to battle Anthropic and others now. Just for fun, let's go ahead and layer in a few more things. First, Apple probably doesn't love the fact that OpenAI [acquired](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) the Jony Ive-founded io with the notion of [building products](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) that would [break the chains](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) that the iPhone has [placed upon us](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/). But they *really* can't love the fact that the team [keeps poaching](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) key Apple talent to help with such efforts. And what if some of those people are also working on an *actual* iPhone competitor [in the form of a phone](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,%F0%9F%93%B1%20The%20OpenAiPhone%3F,-%E2%80%93%20First%2C%20are), or a [smartphone-like](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) device? I'm not saying that's the reason Apple may not have been as receptive to reworking any deal with OpenAI, but I'm saying that if there were such discussions, that dynamic probably didn't help matters! *As an aside: it seems a bit strange that Apple would even consider reworking their OpenAI deal when they must have known they were about to change the entire AI system, not only with Gemini, but with the aforementioned "extensions". Why bother? Unless OpenAI wanted* [*more preferred placemen*](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/)*t for ChatGPT – which per above, they're saying they didn't. So perhaps that's the simple reason why Apple and OpenAI's discussions to "rework" their deal went nowhere?* Let's also remember that after the initial OpenAI agreement for iOS integration, Apple was said to be in talks [to invest in a round of funding](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) – [which would have made sense](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/) – and potentially get [a board observer role](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) at the company! Microsoft [may or may not have torpedoed that](https://spyglass.org/openai-board-apple-microsoft/) (and killed off their own such role in the process). And ongoing OpenAI turmoil at the time [may or may not have killed off the investment](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/) itself. But again, the fact that this (allegedly) played out after that original agreement probably started the two sides down a rockier path than the one they set out upon.[4](#four) Two years ago, [I was wondering](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-iphone/) if we might see Sam Altman ([back!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhhId%5FWG7RA&ref=spyglass.org)) on stage at WWDC to announce their partnership. It didn't happen, but ChatGPT certainly got [prime placement there](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/), if not exactly within iOS itself. This year, with this news, I think it's a question of if we'll hear anything about ChatGPT – [still](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) the leading consumer AI product and partner of Apple, after all – *at all*. Jury deliberations start on Monday for the Musk/OpenAI trial. Hopefully they can wrap in time just in case OpenAI needs to start a new trial.[5](#five) One battle after another, [indeed](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/). 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Leaking such news to Gurman hardly seems like an accident given his status as the preeminent Apple reporter. OpenAI is clearly aiming for the Apple audience while sending a message to the company. Again, I'm just not sure how wise of a strategy this is. Optically, it's fun though! [Were the TBPN guys consulted on the strategy?](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/) [↩](#) 2 One quote given to the *FT* stands out in this regard: "They are focused solely on extracting a tax for their market position" Someone alert Elizabeth Warren, pronto! [↩](#) 3 The *NYT's* [Mike Isaac smartly](https://x.com/MikeIsaac/status/2054973937185075643?ref=spyglass.org) recalls [the Square/Starbucks deal](https://techcrunch.com/2012/08/07/square-partnershi/?ref=spyglass.org) from over a decade ago that [*seemed* like a massive win](https://techcrunch.com/2012/08/08/wake-up-and-smell-the-coffee-square-could-be-at-the-epicenter-of-the-seismic-change-away-from-cash/?ref=spyglass.org) for the then-startup but [ended up as a sort of disaster (and was killed in their IPO filing, no less!)](https://techcrunch.com/2015/10/14/square-will-end-payment-processing-agreement-with-starbucks/?ref=spyglass.org). As Isaac notes, no lawsuits were filed there... [↩](#) 4 There's also some notion that Apple is not happy with OpenAI's privacy standards? Which was an aside in the *Bloomberg* piece, but obviously has [long been a concern](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-gray-areas/) with such a deal... [↩](#) 5 Perhaps [Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvonne%5FGonzalez%5FRogers?ref=spyglass.org) can oversee this one too, since she's now [*very*](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%20Supreme%20Court%20Rejects%20Apple%27s%20Stay) familiar [with both companies](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/)... [↩](#) ### Inklings #010 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-googlebook-amazon-adds-alexa-ai-as-a-filmmaking-tool-is-microsoft-now-undervalued-who-is-winning-elon-v-openai-openais-7b-man-with-his-own-ai-lab/ Last updated: 2026-05-14T14:32:17.000Z While I understand the attempt at an AI-first computer, there are a few strange things about the 'Googlebook' starting with the name on down. Of course, that could just be because much of it is TBD at the moment, perhaps related to Google IO kicking off next week. Still... [An Actual AI PCSome initial thoughts on ‘Googlebook’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-12.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/gb2.png)](https://spyglass.org/googlebook/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🛍️** [**Amazon.com Adds Alexa**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/929457/amazon-announces-alexa-for-shopping-ai-assistant-rufus?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I never [fully](https://spyglass.org/alexa-rufus-clippy/) understood why Amazon created a separate brand/product for augmenting their core shopping experience with AI. I guess ([and guessed](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2054559546794742195?ref=spyglass.org)) it was to be able to experiment with 'Rufus' while at the same time, the earlier versions of Alexa may not have been up to ~~ruff~~ snuff – especially if you're going to be putting it in front of millions of people instantly. With Alexa+ now ready and rolling (out), it's seemingly time see if Amazon's AI can be used to buy the big boy pants. And presuming it works (Rufus has gotten much better over time in my own usage), this could help Alexa itself, giving Amazon [an advantage](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/) in the all-important [AI commerce](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) – and eventually *agentic* commerce, space. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/929457/amazon-announces-alexa-for-shopping-ai-assistant-rufus?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🎥** [**AI as a Filmmaking Tool**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/peter-jackson-talks-ai-filmmaking-in-cannes-a-tool-like-any-other-1236594608/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** You can put Peter Jackson [in the James Cameron camp](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) with AI. That is, rather than [freaking out](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) about it, simply viewing it as [yet another tool](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/) to leverage (or not) when it comes to [making movies](https://spyglass.org/ben-affleck-on-ai/). It is interesting how the camps [at least somewhat](https://x.com/gavinpurcell/status/2054780737598169485?ref=spyglass.org) seem to be dividing between filmmakers who favor special effects versus those who favor practical effects... I'm not saying AI is simply the new CGI, but well, Jackson is with: "It's no different from any other special effect." He goes on to note that he's not talking about AI in general, and that he's obviously in favor [of IP](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) and identity rights. But again, it's just the common sense: if you can leverage something to better fulfill your vision as a filmmaker, why wouldn't you do that? Because people aren't as involved as they are in say, stop-motion filmmaking? What is the cut off line we're drawing here, and why? To save jobs? Jobs have been going away in Hollywood for years, [long before](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) AI came around. There will be new jobs to leverage the new tools, just as is always the case. Also, if and when [fully AI-generated movies](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) come, I suspect once the novelty wears off, very few people will want to watch them. And the human-created ones (perhaps augmented by some AI tools) [will *rise*](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) in value. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/peter-jackson-talks-ai-filmmaking-in-cannes-a-tool-like-any-other-1236594608/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📉** [**Is Microsoft Now Undervalued?**](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/microsofts-stock-slide-raises-specter-activist-investors?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **–** The company has just sunk below $3T in market cap. They're *$2.6T behind NVIDIA* and Amazon is about to overtake them to push them into the 5th most valuable company in the world spot. About a year ago, I made the case that [Google was severely undervalued](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) relative to their parts. The company was at $2T back then – ahem – *now they're at $4.8T*. Microsoft's story is a bit different since their parts are a bit more downtrodden at the moment ([Xbox](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/), LinkedIn, etc). Still, it's hard to argue with their continued results, quite literally. And with [that 25%+ stake](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/) in OpenAI. If they can actually figure out AI [on their own](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/), obviously the stock will bounce back. But Wall Street is clearly also skeptical of that at the moment and the massive CapEx spend. (They're also obviously skeptical of Apple and AI, but with [next-to-no-spend](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/), they're near an all-time high at $4.4T.) Are activists going to start circling like they did at the end of the Steve Ballmer era? No one is [going to](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) force Nadella out, but might they force some spin-outs? **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/microsofts-stock-slide-raises-specter-activist-investors?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ### I Wrote... [Amazon Phones HomeDo Panos Panay’s verbal gymnastics stick the landing?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-11.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2026--12_02_30-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) ### I Quote... > "OpenAI is Coke, Anthropic is Pepsi and Grok is RC Cola. I never really saw people drinking it." – **Ben Pouladian**, an engineer and investor, [on the notion](https://www.wsj.com/tech/spacex-google-in-talks-to-explore-data-centers-in-orbit-7b7799e2?ref=spyglass.org) that growth at Grok, xAI's chatbot, has stalled. While the racy stuff may have worked for a bit, I wonder what percentage of usage is directly [tied to X](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%A6%20Xitter%20Custom%20Timelines), and even more specifically people asking it to fact-check tweets (something which Meta is on the verge of [copying](https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/12/threads-tests-a-meta-ai-integration-that-works-similarly-to-grok/?ref=spyglass.org) with Threads, as is their way). While forcing banks currying favor ahead of an IPO to use it is [certainly](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=Making%20banks%20sign%20enterprise%20deals%20for%20Grok%20in%20order%20to%20get%20a%20taste%20of%20the%20SpaceX%20IPO%20is%20quite%20the%20new%20BD%20tactic!%20%5BNYT%5D) one strategy, that's not really scalable either ([nor does that appear](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/musk-s-xai-races-to-get-wall-street-firms-to-use-grok-chatbot?ref=spyglass.org) to really be working). So what gets Grok back into the race? Anything? [Simply](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) throwing money seemed to work at first, [then didn't](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/). Maybe tying it directly to Cursor [if/when](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) they complete that [full](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=Thoughts%20On...-,%F0%9F%92%AB%20Cursor%20%2B%20SpaceX,-%E2%80%93%20In%20noting) deal? --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Who Is Winning Elon v. OpenAI?** ****• OpenAI's $7B Man With His Own AI Lab** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### An Actual AI PC URL: https://spyglass.org/googlebook/ Last updated: 2026-09-02T15:13:03.000Z First, can we talk about the name? 'Googlebook'. I really, *really* don't understand why you unveil a product that is clearly going to be marketed around its AI capabilities with a name that's associated with the historic web search capabilities. Yes, Google is an entire company that obviously now does far more than Search, but most would still associate the word with such functionality – it's the "Kleenex" of that industry! [A verb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google%5F%28verb%29?ref=spyglass.org)! When I hear 'Googlebook' I don't think, "oh nice, a new AI product." I think, "is it some kind of new Search hardware?" Or worse, I immediately think of [Google+](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google%2B?ref=spyglass.org) – this sounds like what we used to joke the name of Google's Facebook competitor would be! Wait, isn't there also another product called Google Books? [Yes, yes there is](https://books.google.com/?ref=spyglass.org). Google, you have a major SEO problem here. Also, will the universe collapse upon itself if you access Google Books on Googlebooks? It also, of course, sort of sounds like "[Gobbledygook](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gobbledygook?ref=spyglass.org)". I'll go ahead and use the definition that Gemini pulls up: "language that is nonsense, overly technical, or confusing." Sounds about right here. I do sort of like the paired 'o' parallels on either side of the name – some mild '007' vibes – but it's sort of a ridiculous mouthful of a name. Yes, 'Google' itself is famously [nonsensical](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/google?ref=spyglass.org) and fun, but pairing it with another 'oo' word conveys baby speak a bit too much? Obviously they must have debated it, but again, given the AI element, I would have gone with 'Geminibook'. It's still a mouthful, and a bit bland. But they could have had some fun and styled it as 'GeminiBook' – [evoking](https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/) Apple's old 'iBook' branding. Even more fun? 'aiBook'! But that may have actually drawn a lawsuit from Apple. Though I'm not sure how much they could have done there? But since they're [partners in AI now](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/), perhaps best not to poke that bear... 'Chromebook Gemini'? Sort of lame, but more straightforward? Follows the '[Chromebook Pixel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromebook%5FPixel?ref=spyglass.org)' since-discontinued branding convention. Then again, the intention is to break away from just being about Chrome – and specifically ChromeOS – here, clearly. That points to another oddity. They apparently don't yet have a name for the OS these machines will be running? It's clearly the ChromeOS/Android hybrid that has long been rumored ([and slightly leaked](https://www.theverge.com/tech/928598/google-aluminium-os-mystic-leaks-video?ref=spyglass.org)) as "AluminumOS", but I guess the branding team was exhausted after coming up with 'Googlebook'. Which is sort of funny because if I think of ChromeOS + Android, I might actually think 'GoogleOS' makes some sense there! It's famously Google's two OSes, combined! Or how about this: 'gOS'? Again, Apple might be annoyed (though not as much as they would be about [AiOS](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/how-many-thumbs-up?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=186324177&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=bvcu&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=The%20leaked%20images%20of%20Android%20for%20PC%20looks%20a%20lot%20like%E2%80%A6%20Android%20for%20PC%20%E2%80%94%20mixed%20with%20ChromeOS.%20Might%20Aluminum%20OS%20%E2%80%94%20ALOS%20%E2%80%94%20morph%20into%20AIOS%3F%20It%20sure%20feels%20like%20the%20play%20woud%20be%20to%20make%20this%20a%20full%2Don%20AI%20OS%E2%80%A6)!), but it would allow Google to not only leverage the above but rope in Gemini too! Maybe there is still hope for one of those. Maybe they're just saving it for the actual IO conference next week? We'll see! Anyway, with 500-ish words about the branding out of the way, the device itself makes sense at the highest level. This is the AI PC that Microsoft tried to do [with 'Copilot+ PCs'](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) (I take back everything bad I said about your branding, Google), but done right. Well, maybe. But hopefully as it's Google, not Microsoft. The latter I thought also had some correct high-level ideas around [trying to reconstitute Windows](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai/) and PCs [in general around AI](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-apple/), unfortunately, their execution has been... sub-par. Which is a nice way of saying "[shit](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/)". In fact, they've had a few "oh shit" moments with the big attempt to push the ['AI PC' movement](https://spyglass.org/redmond-we-have-a-problem/). First there were some [major security concerns](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-recall-security/) (par for the course for Microsoft). Then there were some [major gaming concerns](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/) (par for the course for Microsoft). Then there were some [major OS bloat concerns](https://spyglass.org/microslop-windows/) (par for the course for Microsoft). Now they're slowly but surely [pulling back](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) Copilot from every possible [surface](https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B9%EF%B8%8F%20A%20Quick%20Vibe%20Shift%20at%20Xbox) (and Surface), having annoyed their users to death. It just feels like Google can't possibly do worse? And that's not to mention the fact that Gemini, the AI products and models, are actually solid. How they'll productize them into a full laptop experience remains to be seen, but the technological capabilities will be there, clearly. And one of the main new elements they're touting right now [is "Magic Pointer"](https://9to5google.com/2026/05/12/deepmind-googlebook-magic-pointer/?ref=spyglass.org) – basically [bestowing AI magic](https://deepmind.google/blog/ai-pointer/?ref=spyglass.org) upon the old standard mouse cursor. [Others have tried](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-022/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B8%EF%B8%8F%20Company%20Behind%20Arc%20is%20Building%20a%20New%20AI%20Web%20Browser%20Called%20Dia) to use the text cursor (or caret) to this end. It's a good idea, but hasn't really caught on. The mouse cursor is arguably more interesting because it's how you digitally point at something. It's risky because there are going to be some real UX concerns in messing with such a standard, only for one type of device/OS. But it's certainly worth trying if you're Google. It's sort of taking the 'Circle to Search' idea from mobile and porting it over. But it goes further too, as some fun [early demos](https://aistudio.google.com/apps/bundled/ai-pointer-find?showPreview=true&showAssistant=true&fullscreenApplet=true&ref=spyglass.org) showcase. Performance issues aside (as they're running remotely), it does feel like a natural way to say, [manipulate an image](https://aistudio.google.com/apps/bundled/ai-pointer-create?showPreview=true&showAssistant=true&fullscreenApplet=true&ref=spyglass.org). Just point at an area with your cursor and say "[put a bird on it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHmLljk2t8M&ref=spyglass.org)". And it should help bridge the gap between mobile and desktop as touch becomes more ubiquitous across all devices – even MacBooks [at some point soon](https://spyglass.org/touchscreen-macbook-toaster-fridge/)! This is just a more natural way of doing some things than using a text prompt, obviously. As for Chromebooks. Google wants to make it clear that they're not going anywhere – touting 60%+ of the US education market – but they also clearly were never able to make them robust enough to challenge MacBooks, or the higher end Windows laptops. Again, they tried with the Pixel model, but ultimately Chromebooks found their place at the lower-end of the market, and environments like schools where most of what you need is in the web browser. Oh yes, and the MacBook Neo is [coming](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) for that market. [Hard](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/). For many other types of users, ChromeOS could just never quite cut it. I tried using a Chromebook Pixel as my main machine once – I lasted about a week. I don't know if the ability to also run Android apps helps with that since those apps are obviously going to be tailored for phones (and I guess *some* for tablets), but it probably can't hurt? Again, unless it adds more complexity from a UX perspective. Hard to say for sure right now, as the focus is pretty clearly on the hardware here. And beyond the high-level notion of what the devices are, there are not many more details. [This chat with Google VP John Maletis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-vRHuTPHik&ref=spyglass.org) gets at some – notably, that there will apparently be chips from Intel and Qualcomm – so x86 *and* ARM-based chips? Queue the [scary flashbacks](https://techcrunch.com/2012/11/19/i-got-one-but-i-dont-get-it/?ref=spyglass.org) to the early days of Microsoft Surface. Are we going to get a 'Googlebook RT'? And while Dell, Lenovo, HP, ASUS, and Acer are all on board (which Microsoft can't love, obviously), Samsung, Google's key partner on Android itself, is nowhere to be found... Also not being discussed: *will Google itself make Googlebooks*? The "nothing to share" comments sound a lot like "yes". So yes, there will likely be 'Google Googlebooks' alongside 'Dell Googlebooks' and the like. With that, we're right back where we started, in branding territory. 'Googlebook' is going to take some getting used to. Then again, it's not really a product for me. Or maybe it is. I'm intrigued by an AI-first laptop, of course. But I was also intrigued by a browser-first laptop back in the day. Ultimately, it just wasn't enough. Will Googlebook be? Way too many TBDs to know right now. **One more thing:** I do like the notion of the 'Glowbar' being the unifying design element to showcase what is a Googlebook and what is not. The Chromebook Pixel had something similar, and it was nice. It obviously called back to the old glowing Apple logo that [used to be ubiquitous across classrooms](https://500ish.com/apple-cedes-735192326da4?ref=spyglass.org) until Apple [turned off](https://spyglass.org/apple-stickers-rip/) the lights, quite literally. I'm guessing Google is hoping you'll start seeing those 'Glowbars' pop up, announcing themselves in a similar manner. Though it could be cool if they actually did something beyond glow? Perhaps indicating when Gemini is working? Though that takes my mind immediately to [Cylons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cylons?ref=spyglass.org)... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) ### Amazon Phones Home URL: https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/ Last updated: 2026-09-02T15:12:41.000Z There's something that has [long annoyed me](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/) about the way Panos Panay answers questions. This dates to his Microsoft days and [continues into](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) his Amazon days. He often does this thing where he tries to turn the table on the questioner by acknowledging what they're getting at, trying to seem like he's being direct, but it's really just a form of misdirection. I'd find it decidedly less disingenuous to simply give an "I'm not going to answer that" – you know, the Apple way. Anyway,[ this long *FT* interview](https://www.ft.com/content/99ab7093-d680-40ad-baa7-1c32302bb363?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) seemingly almost lulls Panay into giving an actual answer. Not quite, but he seemingly reveals enough that's interesting. I speak, specifically, about "Transformer", [the codename of](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) Amazon's [rumored new "phone" project](https://www.reuters.com/technology/amazon-plans-smartphone-comeback-more-than-decade-after-fire-phone-flop-2026-03-20/?ref=spyglass.org). After Panay dances around the notion of new devices and form-factors that Amazon is thinking about and/or playing around with internally (which, as he notes, sometimes leads to "rumors"), Rafe Rosner-Uddin comes right at him: > What sort of device will you come forward with? Will it be a phone? And will people sacrifice their iPhone for an Amazon phone? Is that a surface area that you even want to play in given how competitive it is? Amazon’s Fire phone wasn’t a success and you tried to bring mobile back at Microsoft with the Surface Duo. At first, Panay tries to pump the brakes with his verbal roundabouts, but then he sort of stumbles into perhaps revealing something by trying not to directly answer the question: > Here’s what I’d say: it’s just not the goal. I know there’s a lot of rumours out there. > > I don’t think the phone form factor is going away anytime soon. I’ve said that publicly. I keep saying it. I always get asked, ‘so the phone’s gone, right?’ Absolutely not. The phone’s not going anywhere. However, I think the phone is going through some transformation, and will continue to do so over the next 10 years, for sure. > > I think your black and white question is, are you going after a phone? A lot of people want me to say no, but a lot of people want me to say yes, I get it. Here’s my take: it’s not necessarily \[that\] we’re going after a phone, no. > > There’s no clear path that makes sense. You just said it, there’s so many new form factors that are important that need to be focused on. It’s a tricky question. If I black and white say no, I would say that was accurate. But I also think it’s misleading. There's a seemingly fairly easy way to read between those many lines: Amazon is not working on a device that looks exactly like the iPhone or the latest smartphones from Samsung or Google, but they are perhaps exploring devices that would essentially fill that role (and hole) in your life. It's all a bit silly. Is the iPhone really a phone? I mean, technically yes, but that specific functionality is arguably the least interesting aspect of the device. It's really just a computer. For the past 15 years running, the most portable computer. As a result, this has made it [the main hub](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) of both our computing lives, but also arguably and increasingly our lives in general. That hub status is what Amazon – and everyone else – would clearly love to capture. Who cares if it's a *phone*? As Panay notes, there's really no obvious inroad [to disrupt the iPhone at the moment](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/). As it turned out, there also wasn't back when Amazon shipped the Fire Phone or when Facebook went down the phone path as well. Microsoft too under Panay! As he continues: > One of the most incredible parts of the culture here is the willingness to make a big bet when you need to. And the question is, when do you need to? Well, what’s the right thing for the customer over time? There’s always opportunity, but right now, no. > > What I won’t ever do again is \[go to the customer and say\] here’s another phone. What do you think? There’s no point. We know what customers need right now. That might suggest that Amazon will come at consumers first with a[ tangential device – or devices](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/). Things that perhaps work *with* the current crop of phones. This makes sense and it's seemingly the same gameplan that OpenAI is [exploring](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) with their [Jony Ive-led device – or devices](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). Meta as well because again, they don't have a phone, so what choice do they have? But all of these players, assuming they see some level of success with any sort of newfangled AI-first devices – [far from a given, obviously](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/) – will almost necessarily want to break free from the chains of Apple (or Samsung, Google, etc). That's undoubtedly why Panay doesn't want to full-on reject the notion. Amazon may indeed come out with something that may not *look* exactly like the iPhone, but will serve largely the same purpose. Again, a hub for your computing life. Panay notes a few times in the interview that right now he views the home as such a hub. And that's obviously because that's where Amazon has a foothold thanks to millions of Alexa devices sold over the years. With many (but not all) of those now ([finally](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/)) being upgraded to Alexa+, this is a potential strength for Amazon, certainly versus Apple, which has a far smaller footprint with the HomePod, and their latest attempts to enter the home [have been delayed](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) along with [the revamped Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/).[1](#one) So can Amazon figure out a way to bridge the home to mobile? Maybe. And as Rosner-Uddin smartly follows up with, perhaps it's Amazon Leo, their newly rebranded but still not operational satellite internet project aimed to compete with Starlink. If Amazon can turn that effort into a true consumer-scale offering, the sky is quite literally the limit. That suddenly flips them from being beholden to Apple to Apple potentially being beholden to them – they already are, in a small way now thanks to [Amazon's GlobalStar deal](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/amazon-may-buy-globalstar?ref=spyglass.org)! Anyway, yeah, sure, Amazon is not building a phone. But they're also not *not* building a phone. Because it may not be a phone as we've typically thought of a phone. But the phones we now have are long from being thought of typically as phones. They'll probably start with devices that work with existing computing hubs – i.e. the iPhone – but they'll eventually aim to create something that can become that hub itself. Perhaps connected via their own satellite service. 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Amazon’s Novel Approach to a Newfangled AI Device: a Phone?It’s perhaps not as crazy as it sounds. Just don’t say “Fire Phone”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_amazon_phone_cartoon_--ar_169_--v_7_5cdfc1b8-e548-4ad5-9f11-fbabbe5ceec5_2-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) [Amazon Joins the Race for “What’s Next” After the iPhoneJ Allard brings some device pedigree to Amazon’s ‘ZeroOne’ team…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-30--2025--12_56_51-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/) [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) --- 1 Just as Amazon [had to delay Alexa+](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) before rebooting the efforts – something Panay talks a bit about, but is also clearly disingenuous about with "I don’t know if it was already really in flight." Come on... [↩](#) ### Take Me Down to the "Amateur City" URL: https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-vs-open-ai-trial/ Last updated: 2026-08-28T07:15:35.000Z My [god](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oALxLNOhI6I&ref=spyglass.org), it's full of quotes. Between the testimony and all the discovery in the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI trial, as you might expect, there are a lot of juicy tidbits. But the direct quotes are truly impressive. So far, my favorite has to be Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, [on the witness stand](https://www.ft.com/content/0a88f439-ba2a-4d6b-8ca4-0554a7c85c50?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org), giving his assessment of the OpenAI board when they decided to remove Sam Altman as CEO (aka "The Blip"): "It was amateur city as far as I’m concerned." Not amateur *hour*, mind you.[1](#one) That would be just a brief moment in time. This was a whole metropolis of amateurs running amok. Mucking up Microsoft's investment. To me, it's sort of a perfect encapsulation of the situation and it perhaps speaks to the broader one in Silicon Valley. Because these startups are now valued at billions, or tens of billions, or hundreds of billions – or even [potentially](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) *trillions* – there's an assumption from the outside looking in that these are well-oiled machines of industry being run by professionals that themselves are execution machines. Yeah, no. That's not how it works. Anyone who has lived and/or worked in that world knows this all too well, but this trial is exposing such sausage to all. It is, indeed, amateur city. Not across the board, of course. Certainly the mature companies often do run like well-oiled machines that keep printing profits even if and when hiccups occur. Just look at all of Big Tech for examples of that. Apple [flubs](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) AI to start? No matter, the iPhone [will just keep selling](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/). Google too? All good, [their myriad other businesses](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) will [quite literally](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) buy them time. Amazon needs longer to get Alexa+ [fully baked](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/)? You're going to keep shopping and businesses will keep using AWS. Meta quite literally [can't buy a hit](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) any longer? No matter, the ads will just keep being served. Even Microsoft itself keeps [switching Copilots](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) trying to find one to steer the AI business. But it [doesn't matter](https://spyglass.org/inklings-big-tech-earnings-new-disney-boss-tested-siri-camera-mode-the-ai-button-netflixs-narnia-to-theaters/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%88%20Big%20Tech%20Earnings%20Extravaganza) to the actual top and bottom line. At least not so far. But startups are a different beast, of course. They're most often going to be immature from both a company and leadership perspective. That's not necessarily a knock on the individuals – though sometimes it is! – it's just the nature of the business. Again, such imperfections can be masked by the massive valuations placed on the companies by investors. And in the Age of AI, such numbers not only can surpass those of actually mature companies, they [often](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) *dwarf* them. This again leads to a natural assumption that they're more mature than they actually are. The truth is that it's hard to grow up in a period of intense growth, as paradoxical as that may sound. Because everything is moving so fast and constantly evolving, it's unrealistic, if not impossible, for a company's roots to take hold. Anything that appears settled can be [uprooted](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) at any moment. Experience helps, and perhaps matters most when it comes to a company maturing faster. But clearly OpenAI was growing at such an unprecedented rate that immaturity ruled the day and the company. That all came to a head in "The Blip". And it clearly wasn't just the OpenAI board, as Nadella is suggesting. As the texting, emails, testimony, and [um](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%20v.%20Elon%20Week%202), *journal entries*, make clear, everyone was operating on the fly. From Sam Altman to Greg Brockman to Ilya Sutskever to Mira Murati and seemingly everyone else on down – and up, to the board. (And yes, the whole [non-profit element](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) probably [didn't help matters](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit/) here!) Honestly, even [the exchanges within Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/inklings-microsofts-early-openai-dealings-apple-intel-have-a-deal-barnes-noble-comeback-rip-ted-turner-elon-musks-colossus-strategy-openais-next-microsoft-fight/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Microsoft%27s%20Defensive%20Early%20OpenAI%20Dealings) in the early days of their partnership with OpenAI betray a fairly humorous lack of understanding of what they were all dealing with – though yes, with at least a bit more corporate maturity! And even Elon Musk, an entrepreneur with perhaps more experience than anyone when it comes to starting and running companies, was clearly bowled over by the immaturity of the operation. And yes, that included some of his own immaturity. Perhaps a lot. In a way, this trial brings to mind my favorite part of [Steve Jobs' famous 2005 Stanford commencement speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc&ref=spyglass.org): "Everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you." Now, "smarter" is perhaps too loaded a term when it comes to AI given both the nature of the technology and the expertise required to build it. But as with all things in life, there are trade-offs.[2](#two) Jobs' point was simply that everything out there that you see and read about and perhaps admire is not built by infallible gods, but by *people*. Individuals full of flaws with hampers full of dirty laundry. [And this trial highlights that](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/technology/courtroom-circus-elon-musk-sam-altman.html?ref=spyglass.org). People can be immature. People can be insecure. People can be jealous. People can be deceptive. People can be messy. People can be complicated. And it's people that start and run companies. At least until the AI gets good enough. So yeah, OpenAI was "amateur city" – as are most startups. The difference is that most startups haven't historically been given *billions upon billions of dollars* with the assumption that such money would instantly make them more professional. It doesn't work that way. At least not at first. Such things take time, and mistakes, and headaches.[3](#three) In that way, it is Microsoft who may have actually misread the situation. And while it's hard to argue with the result of their investment – [at least on paper](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) – there are other results of that partnership that they've [clearly](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) grown [less keen](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) about and have moved to [distance themselves](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) from, professionally. Let's end with another Nadella quote, this one from an internal note to his executive team in 2022 ahead of a fresh $10B investment into OpenAI – their last major one: "I don’t want to be IBM and OpenAI to be Microsoft." Spoken like a mature company [and leader](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) operating in a professional city... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-12--2026--01_10_21-PM.png) **One more thing:** the other thought that immediately popped into my head upon reading Nadella's quote was actually a song. Quite naturally, Guns N' Roses' 1987 ["Paradise City"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbm6GXllBiw&ref=spyglass.org). Did you know [it was written while](https://burnout.fandom.com/wiki/Paradise%5FCity%5F%28song%29?ref=spyglass.org) the band was together on a tour bus back from... the Bay Area? Fun lyrics too: > Rags and riches, or so they say, you gotta > Keep pushing for the fortune and fame > You know it's all a gamble when it's just a game > You treat it like a capital crime > Everybody's doing their time 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Though yes, my best guess would be that Nadella slightly flubbed the common phrase – to the point where [many stories misquoted him](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/technology/satya-nadella-openai-sam-altman.html?ref=spyglass.org) assuming he had said that version and not actually "amateur city" which both AI and a web search will tell you is best known as a "seminal lesbian mystery novel by Katherine V. Forrest" [published in 1984](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amateur%5FCity?ref=spyglass.org). I'm going to assume that's not what Nadella was referring to... [↩](#) 2 My own belief remains that "smarts" matters less than *determination* with startups. Which I know sounds like a "winning thing" to say, but I actually think it often goes quite dark. Those willing to be the most *ruthless* in business often win. You have to be okay with being ruthless, which many are not... But many are smart. That's not enough. [↩](#) 3 It's honestly sort of [surprising](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) that the company not only hasn't come apart during the [endless](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%80%20OpenAI%20Shuffles%20Leadership) [turmoil](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/), but has *thrived*. Perhaps that just speaks to the opportunity here... [↩](#) ### Inklings #009 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-microsofts-early-openai-dealings-apple-intel-have-a-deal-barnes-noble-comeback-rip-ted-turner-elon-musks-colossus-strategy-openais-next-microsoft-fight/ Last updated: 2026-05-11T14:46:04.000Z Wrapping up my trifecta of [podcast](https://spyglass.org/inklings-big-tech-earnings-new-disney-boss-tested-siri-camera-mode-the-ai-button-netflixs-narnia-to-theaters/) [appearances](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/) in the past week... [CapEx, Clauses, & ComputeA podcast about the 3 ‘Cs’ of our current age…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-9--2026--03_04_04-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/capex-clauses-compute/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💰** [**Microsoft's Defensive Early OpenAI Dealings**](https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-executives-discuss-openai-sam-altman-2018/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Leading up to Satya Nadella taking the stand this week at the Elon Musk vs. OpenAI trial, this is a fun read looking back to the time of the initial interactions between Microsoft and OpenAI (which is why they're roped into this trial). Notably, about 18 months before their first massive investment (there was just a cloud credit deal at that point), basically the entire executive team at Microsoft seemed super skeptical of OpenAI's prospects and was far more interested in ensuring they didn't "storm off to Amazon in a huff and shit-talk us and Azure on the way out," as CTO Kevin Scott put it in one email. Nadella kept seeking feedback about a deeper partnership and everyone either seemed to think they could do this all themselves (typical big company talk) or really just seemed worried it would be a boondoggle at best and money pit at worst – but again, noted the PR value of a partnership and at the very least, ensuring Amazon didn't get the same. Not exactly inspiring insight about the future of AI and more just cynical business dealings. To be fair, it was undoubtedly hard to see where AI would go from there, and certainly how fast it would evolve. And yes, the OpenAI deal did end up as a [huge money pit](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) – but ultimately one that has [given Microsoft *billions* in returns](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/), at least on paper... **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-executives-discuss-openai-sam-altman-2018/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🤝** [**Apple & Intel Have a Deal... For Something**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-intel-have-reached-preliminary-chip-making-agreement-69eb9370?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While the two sides reportedly have a "preliminary agreement" for Intel to manufacture some chips – [as previously discussed](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Can%20Intel%20Land%20the%20iPhone%3F) – it's still not clear what those chips are and when they might be ready. Still, that hasn't slowed Intel's continued stock surge, as they're not only well past their all-time highs now, they're also a $630B company now, breaking into [the Top 20 most valuable companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/?ref=spyglass.org) in the world, just ahead of ASML and catching up with [bitter rival](https://spyglass.org/intel-under-assault/) AMD, fast. The report gives a lot of credit to the Trump administration and the President in particular for making this happen with Tim Cook [directly](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) – which, of course, has hugely boosted [the government's 10% stake in Intel](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/). And NVIDIA's. [And SoftBank's](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/). Really, shouldn't Apple have one too? What a wild world we live in. A year ago, approaching a market cap of $100B *from the wrong way*, everyone was writing off Intel as dead. ([Well, not everyone](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/)...) **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-intel-have-reached-preliminary-chip-making-agreement-69eb9370?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📚** [**The Barnes & Noble Comeback**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/barnes-and-noble-book-store-strategy-25c67016?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I've been tracking this [for a while](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1137201592044646400?ref=spyglass.org), mainly because [I'm a big fan of James Daunt](https://5ish.org/i/104517/can-britains-top-bookseller-save-barnes-and-noble?ref=spyglass.org), both because of the small bookstores in London that [bear his name](https://dauntbooks.co.uk/?ref=spyglass.org), but also what [he's done with Waterstones](https://mgs.blog/daunt-is-righting-the-barnes-noble-ship-305ce49c5ada?ref=spyglass.org). Basically, he took a tired chain and made it more like his own stores. And now he has done the same again with B&N. To the point where Elliot is setting up the packaged companies [to go public in London](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/elliott-said-to-pick-banks-to-run-barnes-noble-s-london-ipo?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, bookstore chains owned by a hedge fund. It's clearly all Daunt and this piece delves into why: while the store personalization aspect is key, it's the behind-the-scenes logistics that makes the business now sing. Daunt's inventory management reads a lot [like Tim Cook's at Apple](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) – and I swear I'm not just saying that as the two look similar and are nearly the same age. By shrinking the stores and the number of books ordered, he's been able to compete with Amazon and get back to growth. By year-end, B&N should have 740 stores – *more* than they had in 2019, which is pretty incredible. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/barnes-and-noble-book-store-strategy-25c67016?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🤨** [**RIP "The Mouth of the South"**](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/06/us/ted-turner-death?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While [the *NYT* obit of Ted Turner](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/business/media/ted-turner-dead.html?ref=spyglass.org) is a bit more robust at 4k words, it seems fitting to link to the *CNN* one, which has a smoother story arc. It's a wild one. From taking over his father's struggling billboard business (after he committed suicide) to becoming the largest land owner in the US (at the time of his death last week at age 87, he had fallen to fourth). As he himself noted, *CNN* was the ultimate crown jewel of his legacy as it completely changed media, ushering in the 24/7 news cycle, but there was so much else too. The Atlanta Braves (and putting them on the map by putting them on his networks around the country for all 162 games), *TBS*, *TNT*, *TCM*, the *Cartoon Network*, buying MGM, merging with Time Warner (then merging that with AOL – yikes), winning the America's Cup, donating $1B to the UN (which took a long time to pay due in part to the disastrous AOL merger dragging down his net worth), Captain Planet (!), Jane Fonda (which the *CNN* piece goes deeper on), etc. Highly controversial and problematic at points, but seemingly calmer as he aged. His dealing with debt and hugely risky business moves have echoes in our current times with [people like Masa Son](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20The%20Mystery%20of%20Masayoshi%20Son%2C%20SoftBank%E2%80%99s%20Great%20Disrupter) and even [the Paramount/Warner Bros deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/). But yeah, talk about right place/right time when the Gulf War broke out... **\[**[**CNN**](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/06/us/ted-turner-death?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Quote... > "I hope that 80-times growth doesn’t continue because that’s just crazy and it’s too hard to handle. I’m hoping for some more normal numbers." – **Dario Amodei**, [speaking](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/technology/anthropic-ceo-ai-growth.html?ref=spyglass.org) at Anthropic's developer conference about the recent growth they're seeing, and explaining [why](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AB%20Anthropic%27s%20Compute%20Crunch) they needed to write [the SpaceX deal](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/) (as well as a [range](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Google%27s%20%28Up%20To%29%20%2440B%20Anthropic%20Investment) of others), [fast](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Amazon%27s%20%2425B%20Anthropic%20Investment). ### Asides... - **macOS 27** will seemingly be **less Liquid Glassy**, a de-facto [admission](https://spyglass.org/alan-dye-apple-meta-ui/) that the [design](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) was meant more for iOS and sort of half-baked for desktops. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-10/apple-plans-macos-27-design-changes-latest-on-ios-27-visionos-safari-wwdc-26-mozuaz9m?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Big Bowling?** A lawsuit accuses **Lucky Strike** of monopolistic control over the industry. Didn't realize the control of [PBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional%5FBowlers%5FAssociation?ref=spyglass.org) and [Brunswick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunswick%5FBowling%5F%26%5FBilliards?ref=spyglass.org) (a name I don't think I've thought about since I was maybe 12). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/business/bowling-lucky-strike-lawsuit.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Aside from Christmas **NFL** specials, **Netflix** landed this year's opening game between the Rams and 49ers (live from... Australia?!) as their [sports](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) expansion [continues](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/)... **\[**[**Athletic**](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7261500/2026/05/07/netflix-nfl-australia-49ers-rams-tv/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Still, **Amazon** seems better [positioned](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) thanks to the massive **advertising** business they've quickly built around **Prime Video** and [year-round](https://spyglass.org/amazon-sports-rsn/) sports [rights](https://spyglass.org/amazon-nba/). They're teeing up the *John Madden* biopic (which I [still](https://spyglass.org/diverging/#:~:text=Everything%20about%20Nicolas,%5BDeadline%5D) can't [believe](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-033-streaming-saves-santa/#:~:text=I%20had%20wondered%20why%20Nicholas%20Cage%20was%20playing%20John%20Madden%20and%20not%20Al%20Davis%20in%20a%20new%20Madden%20biopic%20in%20the%20works%20%E2%80%93%20well%20it%20may%20be%20because%20Christian%20Bale%20is%20playing%20Davis%3F!%20%5BThe%20InSneider%5D) is [real](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/163534651/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org)) as their big Thanksgiving football moment (they have the Black Friday game). **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/amazon-prime-video-leveraging-sports-advertising-domination-1236586416/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Dua Lipa** is suing **Samsung** over using not just her likeness, *but her own copyrighted photograph*, on their packaging for TVs. I mean, what? This is not going to help the struggling television division ([thank god for chips](https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/#:~:text=Technology%20Review%5D-,%F0%9F%93%88%20Samsung%20Hits%20%241T,-%E2%80%93%20What%27s%20wild%20is))! **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/music/music-news/dua-lipa-sues-samsung-15-million-using-face-sell-tvs-1236591518/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Elon Musk's 'Colossus' Strategy** ****• OpenAI's Next Microsoft Fight** ****• Berkshire's Cash Pile** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### CapEx, Clauses, & Compute URL: https://spyglass.org/capex-clauses-compute/ Last updated: 2026-05-09T14:04:39.000Z This [month's](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) discussion between Alex Kantrowitz and I on his [*Big Technology*](https://www.bigtechnology.com/?ref=spyglass.org) Podcast was all about money. I mean, I think it always technically is on some level, but this one was all about CapEx, "The Clause", and Stargate. Specifically, while overall Big Tech **CapEx** spend may be on the verge of hitting $1T combined soon, Apple... stays the same at their roughly $10B a quarter. And actually, they might be down a bit this year versus last. They are ramping R&D spend, but so are all their competitors. [It's just such a binary bet](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) that they don't need to fully control AI – at least right now. And it could pay off in a few ways. If this plays out like Apple vs. Google Maps, where Apple had to rip off the band-aid and then try to catch up, as painful as it was for Maps, it seems like they might not be able to do that *at all* with AI. But if it's more like Google Search, obviously that has worked out extremely well for Apple – to the point where [Google is *paying them* billions](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) to use it. Meanwhile, Microsoft spent billions to try to compete and, well, [Bing is not Google](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/)! That's sort of another way of framing the notion that [owning the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) (the distribution and eventually edge compute platform) may matter more than owning the models. The reality will undoubtedly be more nuanced, but it's an interesting, if insanely risky, bet by Apple when you just look at what their peers [are doing](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/). Further, there is a way to look at this through an even simpler lens. Perhaps Apple realized they were behind but also realized that in order to try to catch up, they'd have to spend billions – *likely hundreds of billions* – and while xAI and Meta [have done that](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/), it [hasn't really worked out for them](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/). At least not yet. So maybe Apple, in a moment of corporate self-reflection, simply realized that wasn't a smart play. And perhaps they'll [focus](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) on the *future* of the industry with robots and what not. Again, we'll see! They are clearly signaling they're about to start ramping spend on *something.* Might it be more CapEx spend, or might it be M&A? (Sadly, [Anthropic may be](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/) a bridge too far now, [but Disney](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/)?!) Could it be going deeper on chips [with Johny Srouji](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/), maybe even further down the AI path to [eventually compete](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) with NVIDIA in ways? Perhaps [only John Ternus now knows](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/)... WWDC in a month should be fun though! Speaking of fun, [**"The Clause"** is dead](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/), long live some new clauses in an agreement between OpenAI and Microsoft. Is it as simple as the latter realizing that their [massive ownership stake](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) in the former will be far more valuable if they're actually able to get their models on all clouds? [Perhaps](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/). But that's obviously also somewhat risky for Microsoft given that those other clouds compete with them. But perhaps those new clauses which give Microsoft first-look rights at OpenAI's newest tech is good enough. Are we entering a world with [movie-like windowing](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) for AI – "See it first in Azure, coming soon to AWS"? At the very least, OpenAI and Microsoft get to avoid more lawsuits – with one another no less - just as the trial in which they're both defendants against Elon Musk kicks off... Finally, the **Stargate** situation remains a sort of fascinating encapsulation of the AI data center strategy overall. Certainly for OpenAI, which keeps moving the goal posts ever since [they announced it](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) at the White House. It was a great PR moment to announce something which... [basically hasn't happened](https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/). At least not as it was laid out. And while OpenAI may be getting gaslight-y about this, clearly [the strategy has shifted](https://spyglass.org/back-to-abilene/). Owning and controlling data centers may have sounded good – or even *necessary*, [to combat Google](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) – 18 months ago. But now it just sounds insanely expensive, [slow](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/), and risky. Better to offload all of that [to partners](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/). At least for now. Perhaps if and when OpenAI is public, they can revisit. As presumably they'll have more avenues to raise the needed debt, versus relying on SoftBank, Oracle, [and NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) (before the latter [just tried to](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) quietly get out of doing that). Regardless, CFO Sarah Friar is probably happy not to have all of this on OpenAI's balance sheet right now... At the same time, you could certainly argue that OpenAI spending like "drunken sailors" on data center deals over the past couple of years has given them a real advantage over Anthropic at the moment. And now we're seeing Anthropic have to take their shots and [break out their pocketbook](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/) to spend under pressure. [Money wins](https://giphy.com/gifs/SuccessionHBO-hbo-succession-successionhbo-mEhyrxDNzGQbGdncfc?ref=spyglass.org). ### Inklings #008 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-the-ai-pandemic-samsung-hits-1t-supreme-court-rejects-apple-anthropic-spacex-airpods-with-cameras-openais-aim-to-own-vocal-computing-google-gunning-for-openclaw-anthropics-colo/ Last updated: 2026-05-08T16:58:44.000Z Is such a deal going to happen? Not anytime soon. But you can make a case (both for *and against*) it happening at some point. Especially as Apple keeps growing and Disney keeps trying to grow... Have I mentioned that both companies have new CEOs in place? Interesting times and timing. Worth at least thinking through... [The Case for Apple + DisneyAlso the case against what is a still a fun, but unlikely deal…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-7--2026--02_38_45-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🥦** [**Bleaching Our Broccoli in a Cloth Mask**](https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/21/1135921/ai-malaise-artificial-intelligence-public-sentiment/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Not the first to [draw the parallel](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) between the early days of the pandemic and the early days of AI – and, of course, far fewer people are dying, but it's also not zero, sadly – but I think Mat Honan captures the angst many are [probably feeling](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/), well. Everyone is [constantly](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) being told that everything is fine or that everything is *not* fine. But the reason for both, AI, still isn't being used, let alone understood, by most people on a regular basis. They hear they should be using it. Or that they should *not* be using it. But when they try to use it, they're just not sure what to do with it. Or that it's doing anything. It's both a constant promise and a constant fear existing at the same time, in the same space. It's the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle for everyday life. "The 21st-century average American lies in bed staring at their phone. They should be sleeping. They should read a book. They should take a melatonin. Instead they are deep in conversation with a math equation." **\[**[**MIT Technology Review**](https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/21/1135921/ai-malaise-artificial-intelligence-public-sentiment/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📈** [**Samsung Hits $1T**](https://www.ft.com/content/4239a9e1-854d-4ae1-9792-a4a11d7ae5e8?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) – What's wild is that the smartphone business isn't nearly as hot as it used to be. And some of their other electronics businesses, [led by television](https://spyglass.org/apple-television/), actually [seem](https://www.wsj.com/business/samsung-pulling-tvs-home-appliances-from-china-c17fa504?ref=spyglass.org) like [a mess](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/samsung-elec-appoints-new-head-visual-display-business-2026-05-04/?ref=spyglass.org) at the moment. And then... All of a sudden... Their stock has 5x'd in the past year alone. They're [on the verge](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gbp/?ref=spyglass.org) of passing Meta as the 10th most valuable company in the world. And again, it's not the businesses they've been historically known for, but thanks to their chips – a division which itself was [struggling](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-profit-tumbles-struggles-catch-011005933.html?ref=spyglass.org) in the face of TSMC and SK Hynix until quite recently. Now it's so dominant within Samsung that workers are [threatening walkouts](https://www.ft.com/content/61671fa3-9ad8-42d1-adc6-ffb3aeb7a9f8?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) if they don't get a higher share of profits. And that one group now accounts for so much of the profits that there's talk of spinning it out so the rest of "One Samsung" can continue to operate in peace. All of this just reminds me of my what-if: [imagine if Apple used their chip expertise to *sell* silicon into the AI boom](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/)? While we're all constantly looking for that Next Big Thing™ from Apple, what if it's already there, in-house? Google is now selling TPUs to others. If nothing else, Wall Street would love that narrative. Apple would immediately shoot past $5T, one imagines. I mean, just look at Samsung! **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/4239a9e1-854d-4ae1-9792-a4a11d7ae5e8?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** 🍎 [**Supreme Court Rejects Apple's Stay**](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-supreme-court-declines-pause-order-holding-apple-contempt-epic-games-lawsuit-2026-05-06/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Their 30% cut remains in serious jeopardy after Justice Elena Kagan sent Apple back to U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers – who is a bit busy at the moment with that [*other*](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Elon%20vs.%20OpenAI%2C%20the%20Trial) high-profile tech case – [hat in hand](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/), to try to figure out what a "fair" commission should be after [their farcical "27%"](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/) (which, with other fees taken into account, ends up as [*more* *than 30%*](https://spyglass.org/apples-lol-fee/) out of developers' pockets) failed to fly. To be clear, [this is for](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) transactions done *outside* of the App Store, but the entire system now feels on the brink as this ruling is going to embolden further attacks on the App Store fees all around the world. That plus Google teaming up with Epic (after [losing](https://spyglass.org/google-epic-fail/) their own case) [to kill their own 30% cut](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/), just has Apple looking increasingly [isolated](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/). You know what would be great? New CEO John Ternus stepping on stage at this Fall's iPhone event to announce a "new deal" with developers. Much like Satya Nadella sent a signal at [the start of his era](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) at Microsoft by immediately announcing Office for iPad. Of course, such a change would be better suited for WWDC in a month, perhaps it could be a great "one more thing" from Tim Cook? (I know I'm [dreaming](https://spyglass.org/vibe-coding-apple-devs/) with this, but still, the writing is not just on the wall here, it's in neon.) This rejection of the stay request perhaps also signals that the Supreme Court may reject Apple's eventual overall appeal. **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-supreme-court-declines-pause-order-holding-apple-contempt-epic-games-lawsuit-2026-05-06/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... [Anthropic Boosts SpaceX into the Neocloud OrbitA very clear, surprisingly clean win/win deal, it seems…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2026--10_56_58-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/) [EyePodsAirPods with cameras aren’t to take pictures, but to let Siri “see”…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-8--2026--10_54_53-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/) ### I Quote... > "She was waiting to see which way the wind would blow and she didn’t realize that she was the wind." – **Helen Toner**, the former OpenAI board member, [in her deposition](https://x.com/i/web/status/2052189238444409164?ref=spyglass.org) about the role Mira Murati played in the ouster of Sam Altman back in late 2023 (aka "The Blip"). Just an all-time quote right there. ### I Spy... [The *FT*](https://www.ft.com/content/b3dfaba9-17a2-4fac-90fe-4ab3ca7c9494?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) made a chart showing what the CapEx ramp is doing to Big Tech's free cash flow – which is now at its lowest levels since 2014\. Well, [aside from you-know-who](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/)... Will it bounce back as quickly as the others are projecting? We'll see.. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-08-at-12.39.22---PM.png)](https://www.ft.com/content/b3dfaba9-17a2-4fac-90fe-4ab3ca7c9494?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's Aim to Own Vocal Computing** ****• Google Gunning for OpenClaw** ****• Anthropic's Colossal Compromise** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### EyePods URL: https://spyglass.org/airpod-cameras-siri-ai/ Last updated: 2026-08-28T07:15:08.000Z [Apple’s Camera-Equipped AirPods Reach Late Testing in AI Device PushApple Inc. has reached the late stages of development for new AirPods with built-in cameras, a significant milestone for what will likely be its first wearable device designed for the artificial intelligence era.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iAXhXRP5Zb3w/v2/1200x800.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/apple-s-camera-equipped-airpods-reach-advanced-testing-stage-in-ai-device-push?ref=spyglass.org) We may not have to wait much longer for Apple's [first AI wearable](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/), it seems: > Apple Inc. has reached the late stages of development for new AirPods with built-in cameras, a significant milestone for what will likely be its first wearable device designed for the artificial intelligence era. > > The project has entered a phase where prototypes feature a near-final design and capabilities, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The earbuds, which rely on cameras to see the space surrounding a user and provide information, are in advanced testing, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the work is still under wraps. This is perhaps yet another promising sign that Apple believes [their deal with Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) will provide an *actually* viable and perhaps even impressive Siri this time. [FAMOUS LAST WORDS](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/), yes. But I remain [cautiously optimistic](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) here. Of course, Gurman later couches the report noting that Apple could push out any launch further if the AI to power such features isn't up to snuff yet (and it sounds like they had initially targeted this device for the first half of this year, but well, [the Siri situation is creating headaches](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) for a lot of groups at Apple). Anyway, unless Apple has somehow managed to muck up Gemini with their own distillation, we should be good to go. Gemini can do what it sounds like Apple would like these AirPods with cameras to do *right now*. And actually has been able to for *years*, [dating back to Google Lens](https://500ish.com/through-the-lens-6c3c5a5b3c4?ref=spyglass.org). Also, Apple already has similar capabilities built into iOS with "Visual Intelligence" which leverages, yes, Google. But that's their Image Search API, this is different. It's more similar to leveraging ChatGPT as they also do right now, but again, this is now going to be Siri itself, powered by Gemini under-the-hood, doing this, it seems. Oh yes, and *from your AirPods*, not your iPhone camera. > The cameras essentially act as eyes for the Siri digital assistant and aren’t designed to take photos or video. These components — located in both the right and left earbuds — allow the device to capture visual information in low resolution. Other than longer stems to accommodate the cameras, the product will resemble the AirPods Pro 3. This makes sense since trying to take pictures from your ears would undoubtedly result in shitty pictures. So it's more like having eyes looking out from your jawline, which is still a bit odd, but close enough to your actual eyes that it should make for an interesting feature. As a man who rocks a beard that can grow quite robust at times, I have long been worried about it getting in the way of such a rumored feature, but presumably the AI can sort that out? Or Apple's design prowess – hence the stems on this version of the AirPods getting a bit longer again to accommodate the cameras. Or I guess I can just shave?[1](#one) > The idea is to let users ask questions about an item they might be looking at. For instance, they could be facing food ingredients and ask what they should cook for dinner. It’s a similar experience to what someone gets from uploading photos in AI services like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or the iPhone’s own [Visual Intelligence](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-22/apple-s-ai-wearables-push-what-to-expect-from-march-4-low-end-macbook-launch?ref=spyglass.org) function. While AirPods with cameras to take pictures [made no sense to me](https://spyglass.org/apple-rings-and-glasses/) (just as the Apple Watch with cameras [made no sense to me](https://spyglass.org/apple-watch-camera/)), the Visual Intelligence context actually makes a lot of sense to me. Clearly, Apple knows that [they have a unique advantage here](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) thanks to their devices being in billions of hands, which is why they're revamping the feature in the iPhone as well [to be more prominent](https://spyglass.org/inklings-big-tech-earnings-new-disney-boss-tested-siri-camera-mode-the-ai-button-netflixs-narnia-to-theaters/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B8%20The%20Siri%20Camera%20Mode). While Apple may be behind in the current state of AI, if they can start ingesting real time imagery from hundreds of millions of devices around the world well... that's a data set that perhaps only Samsung (and by extension, Google) can match. But those brands won't be as trusted as Apple is here to have *cameras on your face*. Speaking of: > Apple also aims to address privacy concerns from people who don’t want to be filmed by gadgets — an issue for smart glasses as well. The company has built a small LED light into the earbuds that will turn on when visual data is being fed into the cloud. Given the small size of earbuds, it’s unclear how visible the light actually will be. AirPods are ubiquitous enough that most people at first won't think twice about seeing a slightly different version. But that could change fast if this version becomes ubiquitous and people start to realize that these are cameras. There's been surprisingly little backlash against the Ray-Ban Meta smartglasses to date – [though there's some](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/), and [some growing concerns](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) – especially relative to the ["glasshole" days of old](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/). But all of this feels one incident away from becoming a problem. And it sounds like Apple could soon be bucketed into this group as well soon. It's a risk, but clearly worth it for the functionality. **One more thing:** It sounds like these AirPods with cameras specifically *will not* be used to add more/new gesture controls into Apple's device ecosystem. That's a mild surprise as there had been previous reports about such functionality (which made the camera system in AirPods [make more sense](https://spyglass.org/airpods-with-cameras/) than again, taking pictures). But perhaps Apple is just focused on one thing at a time here. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-8--2026--10_54_53-AM-2.png) Too weird? Just get around the beard! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even AppleWith competent AI incoming, Apple considers an AI Pin…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-22--2026--01_00_45-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) [Apple is Writing Product Checks That Siri Can’t CashApple’s AI fiasco is impeding actual hardware launches…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-10--2026--09_56_52-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) [Apple Rings and ThingsApple Ponders Whether to Develop Smart Glasses, Fitness RingApple has explored the idea of developing new wearable devices — including a fitness ring, smart glasses and even AirPods with cameras — to broaden one of its most important business areas. Also: Hear the latest on a HomePod with a screen, Apple’s![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-smart--1--1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-rings-and-glasses/) [Cameras In Your EarsThe ‘AirPods with Cameras’ rumors start to make sense…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/07/DALL-E-AirPods-Design-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/airpods-with-cameras/) [More Like ‘Shudder Button’Apple’s path to train AI in the real world at scale…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/09/iphone-16-capture-button-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) --- 1 Maybe "you're trimming your facial hair wrong" will be the new ["you're holding it wrong"](https://www.wired.com/2010/06/iphone-4-holding-it-wrong/?ref=spyglass.org)? [↩](#) ### The Case for Apple + Disney URL: https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-apple/ Last updated: 2026-08-28T07:14:51.000Z It's that time of year again. Spend Apple's money, which [they never spend](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/), but boy it would be fun if they did, time. But this year does actually bring a new twist. A few of them, actually. During their earnings call last week, CFO Kevan Parekh made an interesting disclosure that going forward, Apple would stop their long-standing policy of trying to be "net cash neutral". During Tim Cook's tenure, this policy led Apple to [returning some $1T](https://thenextweb.com/news/apple-ternus-ceo-buyback-cash-strategy?ref=spyglass.org) – *yes, $1 trillion* – in the form of both dividends and stock buybacks. Seemingly, Apple will continue to do some of that under new CEO John Ternus as well, but as the comment makes clear, there are no longer any promises. Many took this to mean that Apple might start ramping up some level of spend – perhaps [even on CapEx, finally](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/). But it could also mean they're looking to build up their cash reserves again. And an obvious reason to do that would be for an acquisition. But of what? Well, HBO, [sadly](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/), now looks to be off the menu with Paramount's [purchase](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) of Warner Bros Discovery. It would have [made sense](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) – and clearly Netflix [agreed](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/)! – but alas, it wasn't to be. Anthropic remains the most obvious need and potential fit and fix – if it were about 1/10th the current price. Ideally, 1/100th. Obviously, Apple won't be paying $1T+ to solve their AI woes, even if you could make somewhat of [a case](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/). So how about one of the oldest M&A ideas in the books – [quite literally](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/09/bob-iger-remembers-steve-jobs?ref=spyglass.org). Apple + Disney. Come wish upon a star with me... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Anthropic Boosts SpaceX into the Neocloud Orbit URL: https://spyglass.org/anthropic-spacex-xai-data-centers/ Last updated: 2026-08-22T11:50:01.000Z When you see [the headlines](https://www.techmeme.com/260506/p35?ref=spyglass.org#a260506p35) that Anthropic has struck a deal with SpaceX, I imagine the reaction runs the full gamut from "whoa!" to "what?". But actually, this seems like it may be refreshingly straightforward. At least to start. First and foremost, Anthropic [needs compute](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AB%20Anthropic%27s%20Compute%20Crunch). Like right now. Yesterday if possible. Their business has been exploding – in a good way, but also in a bad way as a result. They simply do not have the capacity to meet the current demand. They've been [striking new cloud deals](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Google%27s%20%28Up%20To%29%20%2440B%20Anthropic%20Investment) left and right, but a lot of those are limited and/or coming online later. Because newsflash: everyone is compute constrained. Well, except one player. SpaceX, thanks to their [acquisition of xAI](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/), finds itself with a shit ton of compute all of a sudden. And while xAI is obviously using some of it, they're also clearly not using as much as the combined company would hope. Thus, xAI is [being rebooted](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/). And in the meantime, they're perhaps the one place on planet Earth with capacity to spare. SpaceX may be rocket science, but this is not. It's a situation that's so obvious that I'm annoyed I didn't realize it ahead of time. Especially because [I *did* think about it](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/?ref=dossier-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%91%20xAI%20Gets%20Cursor%20to%20Cover%20Some%20Server%20Costs) as it related to [SpaceX's deal with Cursor](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=Thoughts%20On...-,%F0%9F%92%AB%20Cursor%20%2B%20SpaceX,-%E2%80%93%20In%20noting). Basically, Cursor was signing up to use xAI's capacity, thus making SpaceX a de-facto "neocloud". That may not be the business they wanted to be in, but it's a good business to be in at the moment! And it provides an especially good narrative if, say, [you're looking to go public soon](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/). That excess capacity on your servers? That's not a weakness of xAI, that's an *opportunity* for your brand new, perhaps backed into neocloud business. And as impressive of a customer as Cursor may be,[1](#one) Anthropic may be the best customer in the world right now. Again, no one needs more compute, *now*. And so you'll note that all [the stories](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-elon-musk-compute?ref=spyglass.org) about the deal are quick to point out that not only is Anthropic getting access to "all of" (presumably available) SpaceX's compute capacity, they're getting access to it "within the month". Again, that's different from the other big deals Anthropic has been signing as of late. Yes, even the multi-billion dollar deals with long-standing partners Google and Amazon are mostly for compute to come online at a later date, this year and next. That's obviously because those companies, as big as they may be are also compute constrained when it comes to AI! So Anthropic was left trying to scrounge up capacity here and there amongst the smaller neoclouds and perhaps in the crevices of the Big Tech clouds. With SpaceX, Anthropic is getting basically immediate access to "more than 300 megawatts of compute" and "over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs" – which every single press release cites very specifically.[2](#two) Including, naturally, [NVIDIA itself](https://x.com/nvidia/status/2052091408643756296?s=20&ref=spyglass.org), which is taking a victory lap here [over](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium chips. So, Anthropic gets their compute immediately – which means they can [raise the limits](https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex?ref=spyglass.org) on their paying customers immediately – and SpaceX gets their excess capacity utilized immediately – which is immediately great narratively for an IPO roadshow. Easy. Win/win. But wait, there's more. Clearly it's also no accident that all of [the stories](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-elon-musk-compute?ref=spyglass.org), including both releases, mention Anthropic's interest in leveraging SpaceX's "orbital" compute capacity going forward. Yes, [data centers in space](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%E2%98%84%EF%B8%8F%20Data%20Centers%20in%20Space)! I'm going to go ahead and guess that one of Elon Musk's conditions for the deal was that Anthropic sign up for – or at least sign up to *talk up* – the notion of such usage in the future. Why? Again, the IPO narrative. This is one of the – if not **the** – big growth story for SpaceX + xAI going forward. Data centers in Tennessee? Come on. Think bigger. Think *higher*. Given that every other AI company is now talking up this possibility as well – even if we're a decade away [from viability](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/), if not more – you have to imagine Anthropic was fine to tout this as well. Remember, they're [likely going public too](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) at some point soon! Less easy to swallow may have been the notion of working with Musk. The last time we saw these two mentioned together, Musk was [calling his new partner "Misanthropic"](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-accuses-anthropic-ai-110558090.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAF3f9PS5VhtQg6G8tmfQZZIJGdAa1i7XhcXsPGJooPCRHjd3wTO1uN0k5ayuLASUVHgUWAkMIncFK5caIG1em1WlTvXbEO4AQA656XB0YZ0q2pHj-zZSGMoQcIbtpnqWoWs8VD4oEih0wTRXcb-paosWNByaubmzu%5F6Ap2IAGoZH&ref=spyglass.org). One imagines there was no love lost going the other way as well. That said, both happen to very publicly share a common enemy in Sam Altman, as both also previously were key people at OpenAI before they left to found [their own AI startups](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/). So yes, it's a very "enemy of my enemy" situation, it seems. But again, the far more pressing matter was the need of each company.[3](#three) And the very obvious way in which they could and would come together to fill those gaps. Anthropic is suddenly a lot closer to fully operational. And SpaceX is now ready for IPO launch. 3... 2... 1... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Obviously worth thinking about if this Anthropic deal alters the potential of [a full $60B Cursor acquisition](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=Thoughts%20On...-,%F0%9F%92%AB%20Cursor%20%2B%20SpaceX,-%E2%80%93%20In%20noting). I tend to think SpaceX would still want that asset as an ongoing, in-house user of their capacity with their insanely popular coding harness which is the space [everyone cares most about](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) at the moment. Still, this deal may make that very expensive one (for what will be a just-public company) *slightly* less likely? [↩](#) 2 [xAI's post on the matter](https://x.ai/news/anthropic-compute-partnership?ref=spyglass.org) even lets us know very granularly that Anthropic will get access to a combination of H100, H200, and GB200 chips. [↩](#) 3 At least for *now*. Let's see what happens if and when they don't need each other quite so much... [↩](#) ### Inklings #007 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-metas-openclaw-killer-xbox-vibe-shift-apples-choose-your-own-ai-amc-live-concerts/ Last updated: 2026-05-06T18:38:44.000Z If you feel like you've been hearing about/reading about "Super Apps" a lot lately, you're not crazy. It's a trend – one that repeats every few years. This time, unsurprisingly, AI is [one key driver](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/). But the old standards are there too: travel, social, entertainment, and yes, the holy grail: payments. [The Age of the “Super App” — Again and Again and AgainMeta. X. Coinbase. Airbnb. Uber. Snap. Spotify. ChatGPT. Even Disney. They’re all trying – and constantly failing – with this strategy…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-3--2026--10_21_10-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/super-app/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🦞** [**Meta Hatches an OpenClaw Competitor**](https://www.ft.com/content/5b48360c-53f2-444a-80a8-f7034750fd62?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **–** Once OpenClaw's founder [turned down](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-awkward-key-to-ai-going-forward?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Seemingly%20another%20damning%20indictment%20of%20Meta%E2%80%99s%20%28new%29%20AI%20strategy%20that%20Zuck%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20land%20the%20OpenClaw%20guy%20despite%20offering%20more%20money...%20%5BSources%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) Zuck's offer, it was clear he would set out to boil the lobster alive. The fact that Peter Steinberger chose to join OpenAI just ensured it would be an all-you-can-eat buffet. [I had assumed](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/#:~:text=Meta%20tried%20to,Maybe%20Manus%3F...) Meta would [leverage Manus](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) to try to take on and out OpenClaw ([and they started](https://manus.im/blog/manus-my-computer-desktop?ref=spyglass.org) the work there) but, well, there are [some](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3%20China%20Blocks%20Meta%27s%20Manus%20Deal) [issues](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%99%20Meta%27s%20Reverse%20Hackquisition) with that now. [So we get 'Hatch'](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-building-ai-agent-called-hatch-agentic-shopping-tool-instagram?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), which apparently, much like early OpenClaw, is dependent on Claude at the moment, but the obvious aim is to shift it to [Meta's own Spark models](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/). And yes, to build a sort of "OpenClaw for normal people" – [which makes sense](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) and [was/is inevitable](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190826703/claws-out-for-openclaw?ref=spyglass.org) to actually productize and scale such capabilities. Though Meta has their own unique challenges: "There’s a trust deficit as wide as the Grand Canyon," is the money quote in the piece as to why they may not be on better footing to build an agent with access to all of your data. To be clear, this is not [the ZuckBot](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mark-zuckerberg-is-building-an-ai-agent-to-help-him-be-ceo-eddab2d5?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/5b48360c-53f2-444a-80a8-f7034750fd62?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🕹️** [**A Quick Vibe Shift at Xbox**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/microsoft-xbox-ceo-asha-sharma-executive-overhaul.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Remember when everyone was [terrified](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/188635789/ex-marks-the-box?ref=spyglass.org) that Asha Sharma, the new CEO of Xbox, was sent as an agent from the AI group (not to be confused with an actual AI agent) by Microsoft leadership to destroy the gaming division once and for all? You should, *it was a whole two months ago*. [I took the other side](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/), thinking that getting a fresh face in there would actually *help* the division. And while he AI background was interesting, it perhaps spoke more to her being good at being in the right place at the right time and adaptable to new roles and ideas. And, well... it's still early but [the early reviews](https://x.com/PicturesFoIder/status/2051948771500798126?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) [are now](https://www.threads.com/@ismh86/post/DX-tv98gN5o?xmt=AQF0XhiyOkoTLpWa57El26qnN2hpmLcmkIUOBNtnN2iGNw&ref=spyglass.org) [a 180](https://x.com/GergelyOrosz/status/2051743027274588160?ref=spyglass.org) as Sharma puts her own team (of not just non-Xbox people, but people who, like her, haven't been at Microsoft itself for long) in place. They're wasting no time with big changes [from Game Pass](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%B9%20Cleaning%20Up%20the%20Xbox%20Game%20Pass%20Mess) to [overall branding](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/#:~:text=%5BTHR%5D-,I%20Spy...,-With%20new%20leadership). Again, it's early, but they're seemingly saying all the right things from Sharma on down about [a return](https://spyglass.org/exbox/) to actual gaming and taking actions like [ripping out the Copilot AI nonsense](https://www.theverge.com/games/924551/microsoft-xbox-ceo-copilot-ai-asha-sharma?ref=spyglass.org), which they just put in place. The division [remains](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/) a fiscal mess, so more hard decisions are undoubtedly to come, but still... this is a good start? **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/microsoft-xbox-ceo-asha-sharma-executive-overhaul.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🦾** [**Apple's Choose-Your-Own-AI Adventure**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/ios-27-features-apple-plans-to-let-users-swap-models-across-apple-intelligence?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Not [a surprise](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192334503/apple-will-open-up-siri-to-other-ais?ref=spyglass.org) that Apple is going to let you pick-and-choose which AI service you wish to use via "extensions" – this is just an, um *extension* of what [they were doing already](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) with ChatGPT from two years ago. But presumably they're going to implement it differently so that it's far less buried. Then again, it's still presumably going to be the *secondary* AI to their own model ([now powered by Gemini](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/)) – unless they let you change the *default*? This report doesn't say that explicitly, but how great would that be? You could [truly have](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) a ChatGPhone ([OpenAiPhone?](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,%F0%9F%93%B1%20The%20OpenAiPhone%3F,-%E2%80%93%20First%2C%20are)) or a ClaudePhone. Regardless, it does sound like we'll be getting a much more malleable Siri, to the point where you can have different models using *different voices*, which would be great! And it might help Apple showcase when they don't specifically vouch for whatever the AI of your choice is coming back with (which was obviously long a fear in opening this up to third parties – get ready for disclaimers galore). **One more thing:** this approach should actually help Apple greatly in the EU, where they're [already looking into](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-gets-pointers-eu-regulators-helping-ai-rivals-access-services-2026-04-27/?ref=spyglass.org) issues with [AI defaults](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) and Google... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/ios-27-features-apple-plans-to-let-users-swap-models-across-apple-intelligence?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📽️** [**AMC to Screen Live Concerts**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/amc-arena-one-live-concerts.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I mean, what took them so long? Movie theaters are in trouble for a whole host of reasons, but at the highest level, [it's a secular decline](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). There is simply more to do and entertainment is far more accessible than it was in, say, 1950\. I know Hollywood doesn't want to admit this, but it [doesn't make it not true](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/). At the same time, seeing movies in movie theaters – when those theaters are great, actual movie palaces and not dingy small rooms with [screen slightly larger](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) than your living room – [remains](https://500ish.com/once-upon-a-time-in-a-cinema-c5991e1b7fe3?ref=spyglass.org) [magical](https://500ish.com/rage-rage-against-the-dying-of-cinema-f4098d75be41?ref=spyglass.org). To keep this industry alive, [new thoughts are needed](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). And this means [breaking beyond](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) the showing every movie released several times a day, even when there are zero people in the audience model. So yeah, show live concerts. And theater as is done in the UK. And sporting events. And premieres/[finales](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org) of television shows (the horror, I know)! I don't even mind [the higher prices](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/the-50-movie-ticket-has-arrived-42251672?ref=spyglass.org) *as long as it's a good experience* and driven by demand, not [propping up](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org) box office numbers! Do what it takes to keep the business viable – windowing is fine to an extent [but don't overdo it](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) as it will not actually solve the secular issue – rather than pretending that one good year ([as this year clearly will be at the box office](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=A%20box%20office%20boom%2C%20but...)) signals [a return](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) of the industry. Sadly, there is no going back, just forward. **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/amc-arena-one-live-concerts.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... [The iPhone’s BlackBerry MomentAm I crazy to think the ‘iPhone Ultra’ will be great for typing?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-05-05-at-10.07.03---AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/) ### I Quote... > "Look, he knows rockets, he knows electric cars. He did not – and I believe does not – know AI. That was a major concern. And Ilya and I did not think that he was going to spend the time required to actually get good at it." – **Greg Brockman**, from the witness stand, [speaking](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/brockman-says-musk-s-lack-of-ai-knowledge-was-concern-at-openai?ref=spyglass.org), of course, about Elon Musk. Of all the [revelations](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%27s%20%2429B%20Man) and [spilled tea](https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%20v.%20Elon%20Week%202) to date, will any comment piss him off more? Also, wild anecdote of the final negotiations which saw Elon walk away from OpenAI, where Brockman thought he might punch him – but instead he stormed out of the room with a picture of a Tesla that Ilya Sutskever had painted for him. What?! **One more thing:** the [revelation](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/technology/openai-trial-elon-musk-greg-brockman.html?ref=spyglass.org) that under the old profit-share arrangement, the OpenAI nonprofit wouldn't see a dime until Microsoft and a few other select partners got *$250B of the profits* first (and that number rose over time), is new, right? I know there was a clause about Microsoft getting paid back first to some extent, but didn't realize it was *that* level. For context, Google, Apple, NVIDIA, and yes, Microsoft each made around $100B in profits last year. The four largest companies in the world, which are mature, decades old companies. ### Asides... - Speaking of **Chrome** and **Gemini**, um, there's a ***4GB* payload** that gets downloaded *automatically* to run local models. Yuck. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/924933/google-chrome-4gb-gemini-nano-ai-features?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Apple** has agreed to pay $**250M** for [their](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) **vaporware** **AI ads**. If you bought an iPhone that [Bella Ramsey promised you](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/technology/apple-intelligence-lawsuit-settlement.html?ref=spyglass.org) would remind you of someone's name in a pinch, you could get up to $95 back. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/technology/apple-intelligence-lawsuit-settlement.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Speaking of, Google's **Project Mariner** has **shut down** before ever [fully](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-029/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Google%20Unveils%20A.I.%20Agent%20That%20Can%20Use%20Websites%20on%20Its%20Own) launching. Presumably ahead of some new agentic announcements at IO. **\[**[**@ZeffMax**](https://x.com/i/web/status/2051824497242833234?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Obviously, [the new trailer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f%5FbKjZeJBBI&ref=spyglass.org) for **The Odyssey** *looks* great, but yeah, having everyone use **American accents** – even when they're British – is a *choice*. Upside: judging from Christopher Nolan's previous films, you may not be able to hear them anyway in theaters ([IMAX FTW](https://spyglass.org/imax/)). **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-odyssey-nolan-american-accents-trailer-1236586611/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Sorry **AI**, you won't be walking the red carpet at the **Oscars** anytime soon, it seems... [Shocking](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/), [I](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) [know](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/). **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/ai-actors-writers-will-be-ineligible-oscars-2026-05-01/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... The best biopics tend not to be all-encompassing – obviously, how you can you possibly hope to encapsulate a full life into two hours? – but slices of time. So ([unsurprisingly](https://500ish.com/to-the-bone-3e9a29c4ad57?ref=spyglass.org)) I'm all-in on the Anthony Bourdain [coming-of-age story](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/tony-trailer-anthony-bourdain-dominic-sessa-a24-1236586155/?ref=spyglass.org), *Tony*. ### Inklings #006 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-amazons-fedex-and-ups-killer-can-intel-land-the-iphone-the-end-of-ask-com-openais-journals-v-elons-texts/ Last updated: 2026-05-05T14:21:21.000Z Come for some talk about Apple's succession plans, stay for a dive into the about-to-be-20-year-old classic, [*The Prestige*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FPrestige?ref=spyglass.org). I back last week on [the *Escape Hatch* podcast](https://escapehatchpod.com/?ref=spyglass.org) covering yet another Christopher Nolan title. (And now perhaps you know better understand my angle on [the piece about John Ternus](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/).) You can find it here: [**YouTube**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zww4vuxVFBU&ref=spyglass.org) | [**Apple Podcasts**](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-prestige-2006/id1516541392?i=1000765947725&ref=spyglass.org) | [**Spotify**](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1UT681Oa1sqdkDasyOwpGe?go=1&sp%5Fcid=6fab082d101470e704acd8bd09492305&utm%5Fsource=embed%5Fplayer%5Fp&utm%5Fmedium=desktop&nd=1&dlsi=cb564149ec9d43d5) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **📦** [**Amazon's FedEx and UPS Killer**](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-opens-up-its-logistics-network-other-businesses-2026-05-04/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** This was [always](https://500ish.com/the-whale-38c3cfa2cc3e?ref=spyglass.org) [inevitable](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1128410853244583940?ref=spyglass.org). And [obvious](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1012561507736064000?ref=spyglass.org). 'Amazon Supply Chain Services' may be an awful, generic name, but it will soon just be called 'ASCS', just like 'Amazon Web Services' is 'AWS'. Speaking of, that was clearly the model here. Build up the capabilities to do it for yourself, then open it up to the world. One big difference is the direct competition Amazon faces here in the aforementioned FedEx and UPS – both of which, are, of course, also partners. Or were. We'll see how both react now with [their stocks dropping around 10% on the news](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/04/business/amazon-shipping-services.html?ref=spyglass.org). And, of course, there's the US Postal Service, which Amazon just [struck a new deal with](https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/amazon-and-u-s-postal-service-reach-delivery-deal-66b34c63?ref=spyglass.org) after nearly ending their 250+ year run simply by suggesting they may no longer deal with them. While Amazon may not have a smartphone ([yet?](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/)), they do have the physical *logistical* mechanism by which their competitors increasingly must play ball with them... **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-opens-up-its-logistics-network-other-businesses-2026-05-04/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📲** [**Can Intel Land the iPhone?**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/apple-explores-using-intel-and-samsung-to-build-main-device-chips-in-the-us?ref=spyglass.org)– Are we about to see Apple with Intel Inside yet again? Not so fast. While it is potentially big news that Apple would work with Intel to make chips for their "main devices", it sounds like such discussions are super early. And concurrent to ones with Samsung, who would seem far better suited to handle such a task in the short term given their current position as a foundry (though obviously Intel's American roots [help narratively here](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/), if nothing else). This is all an offshoot of [earlier reports](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) that Apple was talking to Intel about working with them to fabricate chips for some lower-volume devices (read: not iPhones). But now that NVIDIA has started to dominate the TSMC relationship, to the point where even almighty Apple is being pushed back in the line, well, Apple needs to have other options. That said, it still feels like we're at least a few years from Intel reliably making chips on the type of cutting-edge nodes that TSMC can do – [if Intel can get there at all](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/). Then again, TSMC is also [apparently](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/tsmc-says-asml-s-latest-chipmaking-gear-is-too-pricey-to-use?ref=spyglass.org) cutting back on some costs for [cutting edge](https://www.wsj.com/business/the-race-to-make-the-worlds-most-in-demand-machine-092e8cea?ref=spyglass.org) chips, so maybe there's a window... [It would be fun](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/169453915/could-apple-or-nvidia-save-intel?ref=spyglass.org) to have Intel back with Apple, even just in a way. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/apple-explores-using-intel-and-samsung-to-build-main-device-chips-in-the-us?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🥽** [**Is Apple Killing the Vision Pro?**](https://daringfireball.net/2026/04/on%5Fthe%5Ffuture%5Fof%5Fapples%5Fvision%5Fplatform?ref=spyglass.org) **–** No. But because of [an earlier report](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/04/29/apple-vision-pro-m5-flop/?ref=spyglass.org) saying as much, John Gruber had to lay out the common sense argument as to why a funeral is not happening – at least not any time soon. Which is *not* to say the device is a success. Obviously, [it's not](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/). And while I think Apple [made a mistake](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) is launching it before it was fully baked (including with developer support), it's slowly but surely getting more baked as an ecosystem [and product](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) over time. A bunch of the [recent](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/) content [releases](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) have been [good](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/)! The problem is that the device itself remains far too cumbersome and [laborious to use](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/). And, of course, is too expensive, perhaps by an order of magnitude. But if they can bring new elements of "Spatial Computing" up from the ground with a [new](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) Smartglasses product, while bringing others from the top down from Vision Pro, perhaps there's a sweet spot [in the middle](https://spyglass.org/apples-vision/). The question is [timing](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) on that – is that a few years away, or a decade. It will be one of the key first questions [for John Ternus](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/). But unless something goes wrong and Apple needs to start cutting costs, it's more like a product on ice for the moment. Entertaining relatively few of us! **\[**[**Daring Fireball**](https://daringfireball.net/2026/04/on%5Fthe%5Ffuture%5Fof%5Fapples%5Fvision%5Fplatform?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🛎️** [**The End of Ask.com, RIP Jeeves**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/business/ask-jeeves-shuts-down-internet-search-engine.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I was never much of an Ask Jeeves user – I went from Lycos and Yahoo to Metacrawler before switching, like everyone else, to Google – but I definitely have a fondness for both the idea of an "answer engine" and the [P.G. Wodehouse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P.%5FG.%5FWodehouse?ref=spyglass.org)\-inspired [Jeeves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeeves?ref=spyglass.org) character. Both seem more top of mind than ever in a way in our current Age of AI. LLMs now power "answer engines" in a way that web search [never fully could](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/), of course. And there's an open question as to whether or not to anthropomorphize the chatbots. Certainly, Siri and Alexa kicked this off in one direction, Microsoft has since tried to give newer AI [a face](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/), and voice [may be](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) the thing that pushes it all over the edge. Regardless, how long until an AI service buys the ask.com domain from IAC (now, incidentally [called](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/#:~:text=Much%20like%20Soylent%20Green%2C%20IAC%20is%20now%20%27People%27.%20%5BNYT%5D) 'People' after their publication) for *a lot* of money? Though probably less than the $1B+ IAC paid for the entire company back in 2005\. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/business/ask-jeeves-shuts-down-internet-search-engine.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### Asides... - Speaking of web **search**, queries hit *an all-time high* at **Google** last quarter. Why? **AI**, of course. Well played, Google. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/920815/google-alphabet-q1-2026-earnings-sundar-pichai?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **OpenAI** pushes out a separate **ChatGPT** app for those forced to use Microsoft's **Intune** endpoint management (at work and/or school). I can't tell if this helps or hurts [my 'BYOAI' case](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/)... **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/05/04/openai-releases-a-separate-chatgpt-ios-app-for-schools-and-work-organizations/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Just as **Anthropic** rolls out their $1.5B **JV** for corporate **AI** **deployment**, **OpenAI** [formally announces](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/openai-finalizes-10-billion-joint-venture-with-pe-firms-to-deploy-ai?ref=spyglass.org) their $4B [company](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%91%B7%20OpenAI%27s%20%22DeployCo%22) for this. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/anthropic-nears-1-5-billion-joint-venture-with-wall-street-firms-8f5448ee?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Is **OpenAI** fast-tracking their **phone** project for the first half of 2027? Ming-Chi Kuo sure seems to think so in an update ([are we still sure this isn't](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,%F0%9F%93%B1%20The%20OpenAiPhone%3F,-%E2%80%93%20First%2C%20are) about their *other* AI devices?). **\[**[**@mingchikuo**](https://x.com/i/web/status/2051523855286776034?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - With 'May the Fourth' yesterday, Nielsen released the "winners" of **streaming** in the ***Star Wars*** universe. It's mostly about [the movies](https://spyglass.org/may-the-4th/) – except for the newer trilogy, which doesn't seem to have any lasting power with *any* demographic. [Time for some new ones, Filoni](https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-x/)! **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/star-wars-disney-streaming-data-1236584891/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's Journals v. Elon's Texts** ****• OpenAI's $29B Man** ****• A Growing Gap Between Frontier vs. "Open" AI?** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The iPhone's BlackBerry Moment URL: https://spyglass.org/iphone-ultra-blackberry-typing/ Last updated: 2026-08-22T11:49:39.000Z I'm sort of a sucker for looking at pictures of [mock versions](https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/) of the iPhone [Ultra/ Fold](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20as%20the%20%27iPhone%20Ultra%27), and certainly watching videos. I think it's a good thing as it means I'm clearly excited about the device, perhaps in a way I haven't been about an iPhone in [quite some time](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/). I also think it's fairly ridiculous as these are obviously just dummy units made based off of rumored/leaked specs. They could be bullshit – they're [likely not](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/169817351/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org), but they could be![1](#one) – and yet here I am watching each and every one of these. Today brings another. [*9to5Mac* calls](https://9to5mac.com/2026/05/04/video-offers-clearest-look-yet-at-foldable-iphone-ultra-dummy-unit/?ref=spyglass.org) this [video by Unbox Therapy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S19NVJNr3Xk&ref=spyglass.org) "the clearest look yet" of the device. Yes, there's a *10-minute* unboxing video of a dummy unit – sent from China in the most un-Apple-like packaging possible[2](#two) – and yes, we're considering this the closest look yet that anyone has gotten to the device. Which again, is both amazing and ridiculous. [Such is the state](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-052-monopoly-pieces/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20New%20Video%20Shows%20iPhone%2017%20Air%20Thinness%20Hands%2DOn%3A%20%E2%80%98That%20Feels%20Futuristic) of our world and gadgets in 2026. Anyway, hell yeah I'm going to watch this. Because again, it gives a sense of what's *possible* with the device. And [as I debate](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) if I'm going to swap my old trusty Pro Max variants of the iPhone for this new one (narrator: there really is [no debate](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/)), I really want to think through this. If nothing else, it's going to be an [insanely expensive](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) proposition. So seeing this "device" in-hand, something strikes me: this might be the ultimate touch-typing machine. Yes, the heir-apparent to the [BlackBerry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackBerry?ref=spyglass.org) of yore. While noting (as many others have with their hands on such dummy units) that it's both incredibly short and almost "passport-like", the video focuses more on the unfolded-state of the device. Which, yes, is more like an iPad – they call it an 'iPad nano' at one point, which I think I like.[3](#three) But about 8-minutes in, they make the jump to where my mind immediately went: the BlackBerry. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/ChatGPT-Image-May-5--2026--10_16_02-AM-1.png) Here's what I'm thinking... Those devices were obviously insanely popular when the first iPhone came out 20 years ago. And that was in no small part because they were considered productivity machines. And that in no small part was due to the keyboard on the device. That, in turn, led many – most famously, [Research in Motion itself](https://spyglass.org/blackberry-movie-poaching/), but also [then-Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h%5FY5%5FU&ref=spyglass.org) – to [dismiss](https://spyglass.org/a-conversion-to-apple/) the iPhone with its touch keyboard as not a serious device, at least when it came to work/productivity. That turned out to be very, very wrong, of course. But there was also some level of truth there, obviously. It's the reason why even to this day we see physical keyboard options pop-up for the iPhone. [They're mostly ridiculous](https://spyglass.org/clicks-iphone-keyboard/) given the sheer size of the iPhone now – far larger than it was compared to that first iPhone, of course – but they may be [getting better](https://spyglass.org/clever-clicks-smartphone-accessory/). And part of that is figuring out the right balance, quite literally. Part of the problem with typing on an iPhone these days, even just with the on-screen touch keyboard is that the devices are so tall and narrow (certainly with the Pro Max models!) that the experience is very top-heavy. You really need to cradle the thing to make sure it doesn't fall, but that also means your hands are positioned in such a way that thumb-typing just isn't a great experience. You know what would naturally make it better? *A wider body.* And that's exactly what the iPhone Ultra/Fold will offer! It's such a unique/weird form-factor that you have to wonder what Apple is thinking – at least when it's folded. And it could very well be this: a great typing experience and quick way to get stuff done.[4](#four) And if you need more firepower in the form of screen space (or, of course, want to watch/play something), well, you unfold it. That fully unfolded screen will clearly be the main focal point for the device, but you have to wonder if the actual key won't be this folded state – the state the device will be in far more often. [I've long thought](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch) Apple may be intending to do something a bit different here than simply a shorter, squatter iPhone. What if they figure out some new experiences and use cases for this mode? What if it's the ultimate [internet communicator](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK55ElsVzxM&ref=spyglass.org)! We'll see. Maybe it will just be a fat iPhone, and maybe it will end up a misstep like the ["fat iPod nano"](https://techcrunch.com/2007/09/05/the-ipod-fat-nano%e2%84%a2-fat-and-thin-and-fat-and-rad/?ref=spyglass.org) ultimately was. But I think there's some potential here to change the iPhone dynamic a bit, and seeing "it" in action gives me a bit more confidence in that idea. Now here am I debating if I should try to order one of these dummy units from China myself just to hold it... **One more thing:** Well, a few more things. First, clearly a key to the device will be the hinge as well – something you have to imagine Apple will nail. And will need to nail if there's going to be any hope for a crease-less (or at least less creased) screen. Second, I appreciate the pocket test in this video! The squatness of the device will certainly be welcomed by many in that regard! Third, but that may be offset by the even-more-ridiculous camera bump. It's not just that it wobbles when placed down, it's almost like a full-on lever now! It could probably be used to help get a car out of the mud. How Apple does a case for this device will be fascinating.[5](#five) 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 It's also wild that Apple doesn't shut these down – this already has *hundreds of thousands of views* – but also I'm not sure they can? Again, they're dummy units based off of rumored specs, not the actual device. And if Apple did try to shut these down, it would both imply they were correctly and/or just create the ultimate [Steisand effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand%5Feffect?ref=spyglass.org)? [↩](#) 2 This looks like an iPhone if it was sent to you by a 5-year-old learning to wrap something for the first time. Or a drug dealer. [↩](#) 3 Though, again, assuming the leaks are accurate, it will be awfully [close to an iPad mini](https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/) when unfolded – certainly the first version when it comes to screen size (they have also grown a bit over the years). [↩](#) 4 Perhaps ironic that the sponsor of this video is Wispr Flow, an app for voice-to-text. Maybe this device becomes the ultimate palm-able [vocal computing device](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) when folded? A palm pilot, as it were? [↩](#) 5 Presumably they won't be using adhesive like Google used to do for the Pixel Fold. But clearly any case is going to make this thing that much more thick. [↩](#) ### The Age of the “Super App” — Again and Again and Again URL: https://spyglass.org/super-app/ Last updated: 2026-08-18T15:13:03.000Z It's a story as old as time. Or at least as old as tech. As a company finds success, especially in mobile, they tend to expand outwards. That is, with more apps. And that inevitably leads to a move to consolidate all the disparate services back together into one "Super App". Meta is probably the most famous example of this trend, because they've tried to do it a number of times, dating back to when they were still known as Facebook. The company would constantly [bundle and unbundle](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) services like Messenger and Photos. I mean, [even Poke](https://techcrunch.com/2012/12/21/facebook-poke-app/?ref=spyglass.org) was unbundled at one point. This expanded beyond Facebook with WhatsApp becoming another attempt to create one-app-to-rule-them all after Mark Zuckerberg clearly saw the success of the "super apps" in various Asian markets with products such as China’s WeChat, Japan’s Line, and South Korea’s KakaoTalk. But [it never really worked](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/technology/elon-musk-x-everything-app.html?ref=spyglass.org). Or at least, hasn't *yet*. But if at first you don't succeed... Beyond Meta's [continued](https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/#:~:text=Instagram%20is%20copying%20Snap%20for%20the%20200th%20or%20so%20time%2C%20trying%20to%20make%20Snapchat%20itself%20happen%20yet%20again%20with%20a%20new%20%27Instants%27%20app.%20%5B9to5Google%5D) efforts to bundle and unbundle – most recently with AI – the latest wave of attempts at "super apps" was undoubtedly kicked off by Elon Musk. [Back in 2022](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1577428272056389633?ref=spyglass.org) he gave his rationale for buying Twitter as such: "Buying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything app." Well, Twitter is now long gone, in its place is, in fact, X. So how's it [going](https://spyglass.org/what-is-twitter/)? Perhaps well if you consider reverse mergers as a path to such a "super app". X, of course [became a part of xAI](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/), Musk's attempt to compete with his previous company, OpenAI, which quickly grew larger than X itself – at least [from a](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-018/#:~:text=%E2%9D%8C%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20Twitter%20Backers%20Gain%20Windfall%20from%20xAI%20Deal) valuation standpoint. But that merger also accelerated the losses of the company so they'd either need to raise money in perpetuity like the other frontier AI startups or... be subsumed by another entity. [Enter SpaceX](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/). And while you can't yet use X, the app, to launch rockets into space. It's perhaps just a matter of time. But really, Musk has continued to push towards the "everything app" idea with [the recent launch of XChat](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/#:~:text=%40mingchikuo%5D-,%F0%9F%92%AC%20XChat,-%E2%80%93%20While%20I). And [soon](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-26/musk-vies-to-turn-x-into-super-app-with-banking-tool-near-launch?ref=spyglass.org), 'X Money'.[1](#one) Never mind that these are separate, stand-alone apps at the moment. They obvious exist to eventually bundled back into that proverbial "super app". And depending on how the SpaceX IPO goes, the "vibe coding" service Cursor, [may not be far behind](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) from becoming a part of the playbook. And one day, of course, Tesla. Can all of those services reasonably exist inside one app? Probably not. But that won't stop the powers that be from trying! The "super app" trend is clearly hitting a fever pitch at this point. While Coinbase jumped on the trend [several months back](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Does%20everything%20need%20to%20eventually%20be%20an%20%22everything%20app%22%3F%20Coinbase%20aims%20to%20find%20out...%20%5BThe%20Block%5D), fellow YC company Airbnb has also been pushing on the notion for some time. Beyond [rolling "experiences"](https://spyglass.org/airbnb-ai-reinvention/) into their app, now they're going to add direct access to ride-sharing services and yes, [hotels too](https://spyglass.org/dossier-005-jensen-roars/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8F%A9%20Airbnb%20Gets%20Into%20the%20Hotel%20Business). Uber, meanwhile, has been at such "super app" ambitions for a while. You could argue that Uber Eats itself is a part of this, but more recently, they've been coming after the same goal as Airbnb just from the opposite angle, adding an increasing array of tangential services to their ride-hailing app. [The most recent push](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/travel/uber-hotel-booking-expedia.html?ref=spyglass.org) to become a "super app" involves a partnership with CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's old company (and oft-cited acquisition target) Expedia. Snap, perhaps in part due to their investment from Tencent, owners of WeChat, and perhaps in part due to their ownership of their demographic, was trying to build a "super app" years ago. More recently, Spotify has been trying to [break the bounds](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) of bad music margins with podcasts, books, and now [a range of partnerships](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/spotify-premium-now-includes-peloton-classes-marking-push-into-fitness-content?ref=spyglass.org). Back in the land of AI, [perhaps](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) you're aware that OpenAI is [on the verge](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%B8%F0%9F%8F%BB%E2%80%8D%E2%99%82%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%27s%20%22Super%20App%22) of their own "super app". This will [include](https://sources.news/p/openai-super-app-plan-codex?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email&hide%5Fintro%5Fpopup=true) not just ChatGPT but also their vibe coding solution Codex and even their web browser, Atlas. This follows [competitive pressure](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) from Anthropic, as Claude currently houses not only the chatbot, but Claude Code and Claude Cowork as well in one package on the desktop. Google, meanwhile, [just launched](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/#:~:text=%E2%9C%A8%20The%20Gemini%20Mac%20App) their first stand-alone AI app for Gemini on the Mac. This obviously signals new coding and agentic tools on the way which will be bundled into the app. [This is the way](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uelA7KRLINA&ref=spyglass.org). Speaking of, guess who else is now talking about the notion of a "super app"? Disney! That's right, the entertainment company is also exploring ways to put the true "plus" in Disney+ under new CEO Josh D'Amaro. What might such an app include? "A place where users can book park tickets, buy merchandise, play games and watch movies," [according to Thomas Buckley and Lucas Shaw's sources at *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/disney-is-exploring-a-super-app-for-theme-park-tickets-movies-and-more?ref=spyglass.org). This isn't too surprising given that D'Amaro previously ran the Parks division for Disney and has been the steward of their investment in Epic Games. But the company has also discussed trying to make such a "one stop shop" for all things Disney in the past, and it hasn't gone anywhere. In fact, outside of the aforementioned Asian markets with their handful of dominant players, the model just has not translated to the Western world. It's unclear why this time will be different – maybe the AI services like Claude making cross-pollination more the norm, *maybe*? – and there are plenty or reasons to think that it won't be. The most obvious issue, [as I talked about](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) with the notion of OpenAI's "super app" is one of [complexity](https://spyglass.org/serious-about-computing-you-should-build-your-own-ai/). Apps, against, at least in Western markets, have historically been fairly focused and simple. Uber. Airbnb. Twitter. These are apps to do one thing. But the desire to expand is always there, lingering. And the business dictates it. So the simple naturally becomes more complex. This is even more pronounced if you try to mix business with pleasure, as it were. Say by [trying to turn](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) a consumer hit service into an enterprise one as well. [These things](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/) tend to happen naturally, or not at all. The risk, of course, is user experience. One reason Facebook has had to keep unbundling after pushing to bundle is bloat. When your service starts to require multiple menus and drop-downs – congrats, you've created Microsoft Office. That might be fine for business, but for consumers, it's a nightmare. That's the reason why OpenAI had to simplify ChatGPT's drop-downs – [it was a total mess](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/). There's undoubtedly a balance to strike. And Netflix may point to a way forward here, as they've been able to keep the app pretty streamlined even as they shove more and more stuff into it. Not just more content, but more *types* of content. [Like sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) and [even](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%E2%9A%BD%EF%B8%8F%20FIFA%27s%20New%20Netflix%20Game) [games](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B9%EF%B8%8F%20Netflix%20Takes%20On%20the%20Gaming%20Consoles). They still rely on their algorithms to serve up what they think you'll want on that all-important main page.[2](#two) Dynamically served-up interfaces could be a key to making this work.[3](#three) And AI will obviously be a key to that. Or the "super apps" may fail to catch on, at least in the West, for the 20th year in a row... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI is Busy Both Bundling and UnbundlingWith Sora coming to ChatGPT…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/03/Gemini_Generated_Image_36i4i636i4i636i4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) [Meta Is Unbundling... AgainThe strategy behind the stand-alone apps for Reels and Meta AI…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/02/mgs22_a_facebook_icon_unpacking_a_giant_box_of_stuff_throwing_9466aef8-0e0c-412d-8076-73fd5c8720b0_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) [OpenAI’s OdysseyCan they get down to business while maintaining ChatGPT’s lead?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/03/4512f360-b5f4-425a-be59-71cd20bc3d5f_3840x2208-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) --- 1 If we're reallying going to do the 'X \_\_\_\_' branding, can we at least standardize how they're styled? Should there be a space after the 'X' or not? Might I suggest a lowercase usage since 'xChat' and 'xMoney' looks at least a little less porn-y? Also, sort of calls back to Apple's success with their famous lowercase 'i'... [↩](#) 2 Though I'd [still](https://500ish.com/netflix-hold-the-flix-14aed8182028?ref=spyglass.org) argue that they push their games a bit too much. [↩](#) 3 Elon/X would undoubtedly argue that *payments* are the key to make this all work, and there may be something to that notion. Though [I'm not sure](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20%27X%20Money%27%20Struggles) how easy it will be to get people to route payments through an app like X... [↩](#) ### Inklings #005 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-big-tech-earnings-new-disney-boss-tested-siri-camera-mode-the-ai-button-netflixs-narnia-to-theaters/ Last updated: 2026-05-01T22:01:47.000Z Got 3 hours to kill this weekend? Might I suggest [the latest episode of John Gruber's The Talk Show podcast](https://daringfireball.net/thetalkshow/2026/04/30/ep-446?ref=spyglass.org) where we discuss all things Apple CEO succession. Tim Cook. John Ternus. And a lot of rabbit holes. You can find it on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/446-food-and-beverage-director-with-mg-siegler/id528458508?i=1000765036280&ref=spyglass.org), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/0sxgWcszZviq9uDjwzcj2Z?ref=spyglass.org), or you podcast player of choice... ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **📈** [**Big Tech Earnings Extravaganza**](https://www.techmeme.com/260429/p57?ref=spyglass.org#a260429p57) **–** The biggest takeaway over the two-day span (with *four* [reporting](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/) on the same day) seems to be that while everyone beat their numbers, how the market reacted varied *wildly*. Because what really mattered clearly was [the AI spend](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/) – well, except for Apple – and the perception of how [the massive CapEx](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) is being leveraged ([or not](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/)). Google soared to new record highs (and is [closing in](https://companiesmarketcap.com/?ref=spyglass.org) on NVIDIA as the most valuable company in the world). Microsoft sank (but has since come back a bit). Amazon jumped (and is on the verge of overtaking Microsoft as the 4th most valuable company). Meta tanked (and is about to fall behind Tesla again – they're now a half-trillion behind Broadcom and TSMC). Clearly, the market is most skeptical of Meta and Microsoft at the moment and most bullish on Google and Amazon when it comes to AI. And I think they like Apple as [a hedge against the madness](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/). Or simply because people need to [use AI on *something*](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) and Apple sells a lot of those somethings. How long until Meta offers up [a cloud offering](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) just to shut Wall Street up? **\[**[**Techmeme**](https://www.techmeme.com/260429/p57?ref=spyglass.org#a260429p57)**\]** **🐭** [**New Disney Boss Tested**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/business/media/disney-ceo-josh-damaro-fcc-abc-trump.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** One of those tangents Gruber and I go on is about Disney. And specifically, why it might make sense for Apple to acquire them. How would *that* be for [a Ternus "Prestige" wild card](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/)? Unlikely to happen soon, but at a sub-$200B market cap, it sort of looks like a steal? It would cost well over $1T now to [acquire Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/)! And with HBO/Warner Bros seemingly now [off the table](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/)... Anyway, the [*other*](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/187098973/josh-damaro-gets-his-wish-upon-a-star?ref=spyglass.org) new CEO in town, Josh D'Amaro has had a hell of a first few months between [the Sora shitshow](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/), some *Fortnite* fumbles. the *Bachelorette* nightmare, Disney layoffs, and now Jimmy Kimmel – [yes](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%90%20Jimmy%20Kimmel%20No%20Longer%20Live), [again](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%A3%20Jimmy%20Kimmel%20Tick%2DTock). Speaking of, does TV really even make sense for Disney anymore? They're apparently [keeping ESPN](https://www.businessinsider.com/espn-disney-spin-sell-decision-josh-damaro-2026-4?ref=spyglass.org) for now – and certainly Apple might like that asset! – but what about ABC and/or the affiliates? Many early tests and calls for D'Amaro (don't say Chapek)... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/business/media/disney-ceo-josh-damaro-fcc-abc-trump.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📸** [**The Siri Camera Mode**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/ios-27-features-siri-camera-mode-visual-intelligence-nutrition-info-contacts?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Is Apple really going to risk tainting their all-important camera with Siri's bad brand? It sure sounds like it! But really, the feature(s) make sense. 'Visual Intelligence' is sort of awesome and [clearly the future](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) (as Google Lens was before it) but it's [way too buried](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ios-18-2/). Putting it front-and-center will spur usage and, importantly, get it ready for it inevitably being a part of Apple's [forthcoming smartglasses](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) (and [AirPods/Pendant](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/)?). All while giving Apple some interesting data to use for their own AI build out! While I joke/not joke about Siri, I do like the idea of changing the camera shutter button to the logo to make it clear what you're doing. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/ios-27-features-siri-camera-mode-visual-intelligence-nutrition-info-contacts?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🗣️** [**The AI Button**](https://www.wired.com/story/this-ai-button-wearable-from-ex-apple-engineers-looks-like-an-ipod-shuffle/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Speaking of, I've been meaning to note this new wearable made by an ex-Apple team. No, [it's not Humane](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/), it's almost the opposite. It's called, wait for it... [Button](https://buttoncomputer.com/?ref=spyglass.org). It's a pin you push to start talking to AI. It's not [always on](https://spyglass.org/ai-friend-wearable/), not [always listening](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/). This sounds a lot like [what I thought](https://spyglass.org/chat-gpt-pin/) the first version of such products [should always be](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/). Instead, we got laser projectors. Still, I'm not sure this should be a button you affix to your clothes versus a pendant with a lanyard. Yes, seemingly what Apple itself is [thinking about](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/). But really, I'm thinking about the first iPod Shuffle – the white stick with the built-in lanyard, not the latter square variety that this product more closely resembles. That first version was so great because it was so simple. You put it around your neck and you were off with hundreds of songs available on demand. The biggest pain point was the wires for the EarPods. That's [no longer](https://spyglass.org/an-ode-to-the-volume-swipe/) an issue! I mean, Apple should probably [bring back the iPod](https://spyglass.org/tinypod/) for that reason alone? But at least make any AI button similar to [that magical feeling](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/). The real key will still be hard to pull of: response time. **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/this-ai-button-wearable-from-ex-apple-engineers-looks-like-an-ipod-shuffle/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🦁** [**Netflix Shifts Narnia to Theaters**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/netflix-narnia-movie-greta-gerwig-release-date-1236581880/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Well would you look at [that](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/). Greta Gerwig's *The Magician’s Nephew* (technically the *sixth* of C.S. Lewis' *Narnia* series, but the first chronologically) was all set for a Thanksgiving 2026 IMAX release (followed by Netflix a few weeks later) but now it's shifting to Spring 2027, not because of reshoots but because Netflix is going to push it wide to *all* movie theaters. It will get a seven-week run starting in February before it hits Netflix in April – that's... [49 days](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/). Sure, it's just one movie, for now. Regardless it sure looks as if Netflix is backtracking on their previous theatrical stance... [**Who would have thought?**](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) Yes, a lot has changed in the past few months, but also, [nothing has changed](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/). This was [always](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) inevitable. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/netflix-narnia-movie-greta-gerwig-release-date-1236581880/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### **I Quote...** > "I’ve found Claude to have a sort of pen-and-paper quality to it. It functions like one of the best assistants I had back in the Vanity Fair days — except that it doesn’t need water and doesn’t dream of becoming an editor one day." – **Graydon Carter**, [announcing](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-and-graydon-carter-to-host-a-list-cannes-party-1236573696/?ref=spyglass.org) that Dario Amodei – yes, the Anthropic CEO – will be the co-host of his annual Cannes Film Festival party this year. Yes, really. ### **I Wrote...** [Apple’s Binary BetAs Big Tech keeps ramping CapEx, Apple stays the same…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-1--2026--10_10_34-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/) [Stargate Powers Some GaslightsOpenAI would sure like us to believe there’s nothing to see here…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-30--2026--11_10_28-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/) [Microsoft Claws Away ‘The Clause’ as OpenAI Claws Back Some IndependenceOpenAI and Microsoft update the agreement they just updated…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-27--2026--08_36_20-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) ### Asides... - How **OpenAI** hunted down [their](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-really-wants-codex-to-shut-up-about-goblins/?ref=spyglass.org) **goblins** and **gremlins** (the culprit was the "nerdy" personality). **\[**[**OpenAI**](https://openai.com/index/where-the-goblins-came-from/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Business and user [metrics](https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20OpenAI%20Missing%20Projections) aside, is **Anthropic** also about to pass in **OpenAI** in **valuation**? There are multiple publications [saying](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/anthropic-receives-investment-interest-900-million-valuation?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **$900B...** **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/29/sources-anthropic-could-raise-a-new-50b-round-at-a-valuation-of-900b/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - What does reading **Stephen King** and reading **Shakespeare** have in common? Perhaps more than you might think... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/what-stephen-king-s-the-shining-carrie-have-in-common-with-shakespeare?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Much [like](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp87z6vexl3o?ref=spyglass.org) Matthew McConaughey, **Taylor Swift** is trying to **trademark** herself – several aspects. To get ahead of **AI**, of course. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2026/music/news/taylor-swift-trademark-voice-likeness-ai-misuse-1236731401/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The **prequel** to ***The Crown*** has apparently been greenlit by **Netflix** – perhaps for a mere **£500M**. It should span from the death of Queen Victoria in 1901 until the wedding of then Princess Elizabeth in 1947\. **\[**[**Telegraph**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/30/the-crown-spinoff-queen-victoria-death-queen-elizabeth/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... Uh, hell yeah [1980s-inspired racing Porsche](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2026/motorsports/porsche-imsa-laguna-seca-apple-computer-design-42283.html?ref=spyglass.org). To celebrate both 75 years of Porsche Motorsport and 50 years of Apple. [Fun fact](https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/30/apple-and-porsche-debut-80s-inspired-race-car-liveries-at-laguna-seca/?ref=spyglass.org), the Porsche 935 K3 race car was sponsored by Apple all the way back in 1980\. It's true, [look](https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/30/apple-and-porsche-debut-80s-inspired-race-car-liveries-at-laguna-seca/?ref=spyglass.org)! [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/thumbnail--1-.jpeg)](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2026/motorsports/porsche-imsa-laguna-seca-apple-computer-design-42283.html?ref=spyglass.org) 🎶 Listening to [****"Bobby" by Wolf Alice**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d43pMOF%5FMQI&ref=spyglass.org) 🍺 Enjoying a [****Sierra Nevada Pale Ale**](https://sierranevada.com/brews/pale-ale?ref=spyglass.org) 🇬🇧 Sent from ****London, England** ### Apple's Binary Bet URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-crazy-capex/ Last updated: 2026-08-18T15:12:39.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/capex2.png) In 2021, Apple spent $11.1B on CapEx for the year. In 2022, that number fell slightly to $10.7B. In 2023, it was back to $11B. By 2024, it was down a bit to $9.4B. 2025 saw a jump to $12.7B. 2026? Well, with half the fiscal year in the books as Apple just reported [their Q2 numbers](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/04/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/?ref=spyglass.org), Apple is on track to spend... $9B to $10B in CapEx. One could imagine a banker on Wall Street conjuring [Matthew McConaughey in *Dazed & Confused*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wknywxfcE5M&ref=spyglass.org): "That's what I love about Apple, man. Their Big Tech peers go crazy on CapEx, they stay in the same range..." The dichotomy is so wild that it now gets [written about](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) every [single quarter](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/). But the dichotomy also keeps *growing every single quarter* as Big Tech [keeps ramping CapEx](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) and yes, Apple stays the same! I mean the chart above says it all by showing it all. In 2021, Apple brought up CapEx quite a bit from $7.3B in 2020 to that $11.1B number – a huge jump, relatively speaking. It looked like they might be closing the gap with their peer group as Meta was at $19.2B that year, Microsoft at $20B, and Google at $24.6B. (Amazon was an outlier back then – $61B! – due to their unique warehouse and data center needs given their core businesses.) But over the next few years, the story remained largely the same, with everyone holding fairly steady (aside from Meta, which ramped CapEx in 2022 – but pulled back the following year). Then 2024 hit. By then, it was obviously clear to everyone that ChatGPT was not a flash in the pan – well everyone except Apple, perhaps. Acting like the Eye of Sauron realizing the Ring of Power was nearby, the rest of Big Tech firmly fixed their gaze on CapEx. Last year, the numbers exploded. This year, they'll explode even further. Amazon will hit $200B spent for the year. Google will be close behind at $190B. Microsoft should be around the same at $190B. Meta at $145B. Apple? Again, they hit $4.344B in CapEx in the first half of 2026 – which was *down* a bit year on year – so they should end in that $9B to $10B range, assuming some level of ramp. Yes, that would be below what they spent in 2021. It's just such a wild break from their peer group. And it keeps getting more wild. It seems like the most binary bet imaginable. Either Apple is right and the rest of Big Tech will have lit hundreds of billions – perhaps *trillions* when all is said and done – of dollars on fire, or Apple is going to be in big trouble. Obviously, there will be some nuance there. Apple's bet relies on a few factors, including that someone else is spending this CapEx on which Apple can rely. This is the "hybrid" approach to such spend that Tim Cook and others at Apple keep referring to. They're basically saying that while they'll do some of their AI work in-house, on their own servers, for the most part, they'll partner with the others to rely upon their capacity. Most famously, Apple is now [doing this with Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). To that end, they may view it as similar to their longstanding – [even after legal challenges](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) – deal for Google Search. Apple could have spend tens or hundreds of billions building their own search engine. But they [opted to partner](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) with Google and instead *got paid tens or hundreds of billions*! And how well did that spend versus partner strategy work for Microsoft? They're making some money from Bing now, but it took years and years – and billions upon billions spent – to get to this point. And they're hardly making Google "dance" despite Satya Nadella's [promises](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/). So yeah, that would be a best-case-scenario for Apple. The problem is that no one else thinks AI is going to play out the same way – *clearly*, or they wouldn't be spending these billions! At the very least, they view right now as a greenfield opportunity to own AI in a similar manner to how Google took control of Search. But more likely, they think AI is going to be a core bit of technology that they each need to control, lest they be beholden to someone else. This is exactly [why Microsoft shoved OpenAI aside](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) despite their early extremely prescient bet on the startup that remains the leader in the field. Even though Microsoft owns 25%+ of that company, with IP rights and access, they're now spending the billions to build out AI [on their own](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/). What's especially wild there is that Apple is most famously the company that doesn't want to be beholden to anyone else if at all possible. It's the ["Tim Cook Doctrine"](https://asymco.com/2011/01/17/the-cook-doctrine/?ref=spyglass.org) for chrissakes! Either they've forgotten that fear, which stems from the times Apple nearly died in their history when others refused to play ball with them, and have been [lulled to complacency](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) by years of iPhone dominance, or again, they just think this will be like web search. Not something they need to fully own. Or at least not yet. The other possibility here is that they view this AI arms race as nutty right now because the technology continues to evolve so fast and it's possible that their peers spending their billions just ends with them all more or less on equal footing as the technology stabilizes and perhaps commoditizes. That has not been the case thus far, which is why everyone makes fun of [Apple's AI stumbles](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). But it doesn't mean it won't be the case *eventually*. At the same time, Apple can be like the tortoise racing the hares. Slow and steady with their AI work to try to win the race in the end, years down the line, when the technology is finally mature enough to matter for everything. [The problem there](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/) might be the fact that they won't have the muscle memory from years spend in said AI race. Maybe they can hire/acquire their way to the top then, but it's a *massive* risk, to say the least. But it's the one Apple is clearly willing to take! Certainly it's the one Tim Cook [has been taking](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) over these past many years. We'll see if John Ternus [thinks differently](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) here, but all indications are that he will not deviate from this strategy any time soon. We could very well be in a situation where in 2027, Google and Amazon are spending $300B on CapEx and Apple is spending... around $10B. **One more thing:** Apple *is* ramping up their R&D spend, which you have to believe is also related to AI work, at least tangentially. In fact, those numbers are [at all time highs](https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/30/apples-rd-spending-hits-new-record-as-ai-investment-ramps-up/?ref=spyglass.org) for Apple. Of course, their peers are also ramping such spend too... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the CowsMeta and Apple have opposite strategies around AI right now…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-30--2026--01_54_51-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) [Wall Street Starts to Turn on AIConcerns about CapEx and Claude Cowork…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/02/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-5--2026--10_32_51-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/08/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) ### Stargate Powers Some Gaslights URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-stargate-gaslight/ Last updated: 2026-08-18T15:12:23.000Z Forgive me for getting pedantic, but I can't be the only one who feels like they're taking crazy pills here. Yesterday, [OpenAI published a blog post](https://openai.com/index/building-the-compute-infrastructure-for-the-intelligence-age/?ref=spyglass.org) declaring mission: accomplished in what they said was a key goal for their 'Project Stargate' initiative: 10GW of AI infrastructure. It's a big number, to be sure. And they note they've achieved it well ahead of their 2029 goal. Impressive. The only problem? As best I can tell, they backed into this goal by not just shifting the goalposts, but by completely changing the field on which they play. And perhaps the sport too... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Inklings #004 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-openai-missing-their-numbers-amazons-quick-superagent-cost-per-click-ai-ads-stargate-shift-metas-reverse-hackquisition/ Last updated: 2026-04-29T18:50:59.000Z Happy Earningspocalypse to those who celebrate. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all report today after the market closes. Obviously, all eyes will be on AI spend – and any signal of actual returns from spend to date. How high will the [CapEx numbers](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) [go](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) [this time](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/)? ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💫** [**OpenAI Missing Projections**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273?ref=spyglass.org) **–** On one hand, you could read a startup missing internal projections as the company either not being great [at extrapolation](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%27s%20Path%20to%20%24100B%20in%20Ad%20Revenue) (more understandable during fast growth) or setting targets that are too optimistic (perhaps to help woo investors). These are internal numbers for a reason; they aren't held to the same level of scrutiny as, say, those of a public company. On the other hand, OpenAI is an awfully mature company at this point having raised more money than any other in history, with an experienced team, and one that is obviously trying to go public sometime soon. Plus, as far as we know, they haven't missed on such projections in the past, so... It's not a great look, but it's made worse by [their response](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/openai-hits-back-at-growth-fears-says-firing-on-all-cylinders?ref=spyglass.org) which includes the highly scientific measurements such as "firing on all cylinders" while calling the report "prime clickbait" – both of which, of course, are non-denial denials to a report, which has now been [backed-up](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-recently-missed-internal-revenue-target?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Even the partners, whose stocks are getting hit by proxy at the moment can't seem to align on the right rebuttals here. The actual actions of the company perhaps remain more indicative here – [killing](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) ["side quests"](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/), altering deals to[ expand their market](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/), and yes, bringing on [some help](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/) in the marketing/PR front. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💨** [**Amazon's 'Quick' Superagent**](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/applied-ai/aws-joins-superagent-race-pushes-version-claude-cowork?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **–** The branding for their [desktop-based AI assistant](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-quick-desktop-ai-assistant?ref=spyglass.org) isn't bad, but confusing. 'Amazon Quick' definitely sounds like a fast delivery offering, not their version of Claude Cowork. Then again, 'Q' [didn't really work](https://spyglass.org/amazons-ai-malaise/) for them – and was weird for [other](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon?ref=spyglass.org) reasons – so I guess just add some letters? More importantly, Amazon doesn't have the best track record when it comes to software. Almost all of it whether on the web, desktop, or mobile, quite frankly, sucks. So the hope will have to be that their approach – multiple models, obviously their own 'Nova' models and [presumably](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Amazon%27s%20%2425B%20Anthropic%20Investment) Claude, but presumably not GPT, [at least](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) [not](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/) [*yet*](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) – and their AWS connections will win the day. For $20/month, it better be fast. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/applied-ai/aws-joins-superagent-race-pushes-version-claude-cowork?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🪎** [**Cost-Per-Click AI Ads**](https://digiday.com/marketing/openai-turns-on-cost-per-click-ads-inside-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** It feels like OpenAI has little choice but to go down this path already for ChatGPT – they need to start showing results to advertisers and this is the way you traditionally show results. But [I'm still quite skeptical](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) this model will work all that well in AI. There's a very fundamental problem: such AI services, at least to date, have removed most of the need to click. That's how they've been [disrupting Google](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/), of course. With web search, users are trained to click. With AI, users are trained to *not need to click*. So, yeah. Good luck getting to [that $100B+](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%27s%20Path%20to%20%24100B%20in%20Ad%20Revenue) advertising business – which would be the overall [biggest driver](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-sees-8-chatgpt-driving-consumer-subscribers-122-million-year?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) of the business at that point – in a few years this way. I just think they'll have to find a *new* model and methods for advertising in AI. Just like Google had to do for Search and Meta had to do for the feed. **\[**[**Digiday**](https://digiday.com/marketing/openai-turns-on-cost-per-click-ads-inside-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Quote... > "Stargate has now had three or four permutations, I don’t know what it is right now. I can’t tell you. Maybe it never really existed in the first place." – An **unnamed "someone familiar with Microsoft's thinking"** which, of course, sounds a lot like someone who works at Microsoft and is undoubtedly chuckling [right now](https://www.ft.com/content/664a57e2-dffa-401e-81ad-55129ffb0e89?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) over "Project Stargate". As it, of course, [actually started](https://spyglass.org/from-space-balls-to-stargate/) life as an initiative between OpenAI and Microsoft, before "The Blip" derailed, well, pretty much everything [between the two](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). Soon, Stargate was [reborn/repackaged](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) as a $500B mega-project unveiled at The White House between OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle. Why? Because obviously OpenAI as a massively unprofitable startup [couldn't](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) raise the debt required to [finance](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) such a project on their own. Yet they probably [needed to](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) in order to [ultimately](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) compete with Google. But, well, the best laid plans and all that – which, to be clear, [this was not](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/). Now we have Microsoft [picking off Stargate scraps](https://spyglass.org/back-to-abilene/) and "Stargate" itself [morphed](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) into just a catch-all PR term for OpenAI data center deals. "I don't know what 'Stargate' means at this point," says another "involved" buy unnamed source. [So say we all](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%A0%20OpenAI%27s%20Stargate%20Stumbles). ### Asides... - While I'm not sure about 'Quick', an **AI-powered** **voice-based** **shopping assistant** sounds like a smart thing for **Amazon** to try. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/28/amazon-launches-an-ai-powered-audio-qa-experience-on-product-pages/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **John Giannandrea** has his first **post-Apple** role, albeit part-time, helping out a UK startup, **CuspAI**, scale in the US. **\[**[**Upstarts**](https://www.upstartsmedia.com/p/scoop-apple-ai-giannandrea-cuspai?hide%5Fintro%5Fpopup=true&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - [More](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20as%20the%20%27iPhone%20Ultra%27) '**iPhone Ultra**' smoke as the name for Apple's upcoming **foldable**. And, like the 'iPhone Air', no number in the name, it seems. Plus, the touchscreen OLED MacBook, should be the 'MacBook Ultra' – in 2027\. **\[**[**MacWorld**](https://www.macworld.com/article/3124481/apples-ultra-roadmap-confirmed-iphone-macbook-and-more-on-the-way.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Tired: data centers in Space. Wired: **powering** data centers *from* **space**, as Meta is seeking to do with a new partnership. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/meta-seeks-to-power-data-centers-with-energy-beamed-from-space?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Much like [*Soylent Green*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent%5FGreen?ref=spyglass.org), **IAC** is now '**People**'. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/business/dealbook/openai-misses-targets.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Nic Cage** as 1930s-era **Spider-Man**? [Yes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfowFyDxUXo&ref=spyglass.org). Also interesting: you'll be able to watch the Prime show in black & white or in "true hue" color. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/spider-man-noir-official-trailer-nicolas-cage-1236575178/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Meta's Reverse Hackquisition** ****• Microsoft & OpenAI's New Deal** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### John Ternus' Magic Show URL: https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/ Last updated: 2026-08-14T07:25:01.000Z Back in 2012, [I wrote a post](https://techcrunch.com/2012/09/13/the-iphone-5-event/?ref=spyglass.org) comparing Apple's method of product development to the opening (and closing) of Christopher Nolan's 2006 film, [*The Prestige*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FPrestige?ref=spyglass.org). The opening dialogue of that film explains the title: > Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called “The Pledge”. The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird, or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course… it probably isn’t. The second act is called “The Turn”. The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you’re looking for the secret… but you won’t find it, because of course you’re not really looking. You don’t really want to know. You want to be fooled. But you wouldn’t clap yet. Because making something disappear isn’t enough; you have to bring it back. That’s why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call “The Prestige”. My post was entitled, "[Apple’s Magic Is In The Turn, Not The Prestige](https://techcrunch.com/2012/09/13/the-iphone-5-event/?ref=spyglass.org)" and it was specifically about how while some viewed the unveiling of the iPhone 5 at the time as *boring*, they were missing the point. The point, per my title, was "the turn". *How* Apple does what it does to transform the ordinary, a smartphone, into something extraordinary, the iPhone. Here I am, nearly 14 years later, thinking about that movie and that point again with regard to Apple.[1](#one) But this time, the context is a bit different. If you'll forgive the turn of phrase, the key this time isn't "the turn" but yes, *the Ternus*. And to take it a step further, while John Ternus' focus has been on "the turn" over his nearly 25 years at Apple, ultimately the key, as he takes the reigns as CEO, may actually be in "the prestige"... ### The Pledge [I already wrote up my thoughts](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) about Tim Cook and his tenure at Apple – including a few months ago when the news of his stepping down as CEO was just rumored, [but seemed likely, soon](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/). Now my thoughts turn to Ternus, and his path going forward – which will be Apple's path going forward. The reality is that a lot of that path, just as it was for Cook when he took over for founder Steve Jobs in 2011, is already locked-and-loaded. All companies working with hardware have to have roadmaps that are set years ahead of time. And development cycles require product work to start at least a couple years in advance. With Apple, that's often even longer because of their complex supply chain and early access to new technologies. That is to say, Apple's pipeline of products are probably locked in for the next couple of years, at least. Some may slip, of course – as has been the case with Apple in particular over the past few years as AI has upended not only their software, but [their overall product strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/). But for the most part, we know what we're going to get this Fall and *next* Fall too – and a lot of that is obvious even without leaks. It's the years after that where things start to get more interesting as it relates to Ternus. Because he will start making calls this Fall when he takes over that will set those wheels in motion... Of course, leading up to his ascension, it sure seems like Ternus already has been doing that, at least a bit. With the MacBook Neo, Ternus got a lot of credit – and, of course, ["stage" time](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) – for ushering in that product. While it seems obvious with the benefit of hindsight that it would be [a huge hit](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/), it was also quite [antithetical](https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/) of Apple's normal approach, [certainly](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/) with regard to the Mac lineup. That's why I [immediately](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2029197792892121104?ref=spyglass.org) framed it as the smartest announcement Apple had made in a long time. It signaled a sea change when it came to their strategy. For the past many years [I had been worried](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/) that Apple had become completely calcified when it came to changing their ways – which [seemed like](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-is-here-kinda/) it could be particularly problematic in the Age of AI, where everything is moving at light speed. That obviously proved to be true, but shakeup of the AI divisions aside, it was this MacBook Neo that signaled the possibility of real change for Apple. The company has famously been run by leadership that for the most part had been there for decades. This type of stability obviously has huge benefits, but also some pretty big downsides, as [I believe](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) we saw play out with AI. And Ternus was in this boat too as someone who has been at Apple for that quarter century – nearly half his life! Steve Jobs may have famously told Tim Cook not to focus on what he would do, just to do what's right (for Apple, when he took over), but the truth is that Apple has spent the past 15 years of Cook's tenure largely doing what it thought Jobs would do [anyway](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/). And for the most part, this was the right call! Stock prices may deceive, but sales figures do not. But now that we're on to the next generation with Ternus and a leadership team that is naturally going to turn over as many of them are at or near retirement age, there truly is an opportunity to "think different". ### The Turn Ternus will say all the right things right now about staying the course that Apple is already on. But again, he has little choice at the moment, that path is pretty much set. Sure, there will be choices here and there – in particular with partnerships around AI and elsewhere – but the product pipeline is pretty locked. The question is really what Ternus chooses to set in motion for 2028 and beyond. Again, a lot of that is in process too, but in such a way that things can and do get tweaked or prioritized or cancelled. And new projects can get started depending how Ternus and his team read the tea leaves. Cook, famously, had a bit of a rough time in this regard. Yes, there's the Apple Watch – but per above, that project was undoubtedly actually kicked off while Jobs was still alive. AirPods were likely truly post-Jobs, but I mean, they are EarPods without wires. They're [great](https://spyglass.org/an-ode-to-the-volume-swipe/)! But not exactly an entirely new product category. The car project was probably more nuanced, as the Apple Board was said to have been discussing it when Jobs was still around, but "Project Titan" definitely started under Cook. Of course, it [never really went anywhere](https://spyglass.org/rip-apple-car/)! And then there's the Vision Pro. Certain parts and technologies may have dated to Jobs, but it was clearly a Cook package. And well, it's [perhaps](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/) the most to-be-determined product Apple has ever [launched](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/). It hasn't looked good to date, but they [could morph](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) it over time into something solid, not unlike the Apple Watch. We'll [see](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/). Really, the only slam dunk Cook can take credit for [is Services](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) (well, and his Chinese supply chain, if you want to consider that a product!).[2](#two) Yes, some of those – notably iTunes and the App Store – kicked off under Jobs too. But it was Cook who put most of the wheels in motion (thanks largely to Eddy Cue) to get the division to where it is today – to the point where it will someday [overtake even the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/) itself in terms of revenue. Anyway, my point is that while Cook couldn't exactly "coast", he could coast far more than Ternus [will likely be able to](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/). Especially as the aforementioned wave of AI threatens to upend every corner of technology. In the near term, I believe Ternus and Apple are going to be in a great position [with the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) because it's still the most-used and best device. [That means](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) that it's going to be the most-used and best device [for AI too](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/). But it will be under assault in a way it hasn't since its earliest days. Both with [new AI hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) coming and, I imagine, [new smartphone entrants](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) built more specifically for this moment. But even if Apple remains sitting pretty with the iPhone, they cannot afford to be sitting still. They still need to be funneling the proceeds from the device into the What's Next™ product. This is obvious, but again, Apple hasn't really been able to do this post-Jobs. They have a great satellite constellation of products, but nothing that moved Apple from the Mac business to the iPod business to the iPhone business, as Jobs did. Nearly 20 years later – Cook's entire tenure – and Apple is [*still* the iPhone business](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/). Again, it's a great business to be in! But even it [won't last forever](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/). It still very well could last as the key business driver throughout Ternus' tenure too, but I mean, just assuming he gives the same 15 years of service, that will take us to 2041\. Yes, the years are short, but the decades are long in tech. [That's a long ways away](https://spyglass.org/the-70-year-old-iphone/). Especially when you [think about it](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) on the timescale of AI. So what is Ternus to do? I don't know, that's above my pay grade. But at a high level, I do think he needs at least an iPad-level new hit product. And perhaps an iPod-level one in terms of relative game-change. I'm not saying Apple will die without one, but I am saying Apple will likely be seen as dated and in decline without one. I do think the 'iPhone Ultra' – the artist [formerly](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20as%20the%20%27iPhone%20Ultra%27) rumored to be the 'iPhone Fold' – [will be a hit for Apple](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch). But at the end of the day, it's an iPhone. The smart glasses? Certainly Apple could make them work, and [perhaps piss off Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) in the process. But are they going to be a massive stand-alone product? I [suspect](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) that even in the success state they'll be viewed as one of the iPhone "satellite" products. Ditto with AirPods with cameras and any sort of AI pendants, obviously. What's the next truly new product? Maybe full AR glasses? Perhaps [taking cues](https://spyglass.org/apples-vision/) from both smartglasses from below and the Vision Pro from above? You could certainly see that. But there's also a lot to be determined, both [technologically](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) and [societally](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) between now and then. And wouldn't it be more fun for Ternus to truly come out of left field with something? Again, [like the iPod](https://spyglass.org/a-conversion-to-apple/). What category can Apple zero in on to truly revolutionize? As much as [I still might like](https://spyglass.org/apple-television/) a true Apple Television set, that ain't it. Robotics is probably the most obvious path here. It plays both to Ternus' hardware background and to our AI future. And beyond the rumored table top devices, Apple already has public research products that look... [well, awesome](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/). Very Apple, but also very Apple-of-the-future. If Apple can make [*Wall-E* a reality](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/), can you think of a better love letter to Steve Jobs?[3](#three) Apple looking around the landscape and taking what Tesla has ([at some point](https://spyglass.org/teslas-tenuous-timelines/)) done with Optimus, and others have done and swooping in to do it "right" would be the Apple playbook, of course. Is that feasible by 2040? Again, we'll see... Regardless, it feels like [it's time](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) for Apple to take [some risks again](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/). ### The Prestige Lastly, I would just note that while Ternus' focus and strength has been on "the turn", he will need to learn a new trick to cement his legacy atop Apple. Again, it's something Cook never quite nailed. The Prestige. Cook as a presenter was fine. He got better as time went on, but that was also because Apple made it easier for him as time went on by taking away the live studio audience! I mean, to be fair, the pandemic really did that. But Apple, unlike their peers, never brought it back. [They need to](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/). Ternus needs to. He needs to tap into the energy of Apple's ecosystem again with live events. I suspect he will – perhaps even with his first iPhone event in the fall. Ternus is obviously no stranger to MC'ing such events – again, digitally. Beyond the aforementioned MacBook Neo unveil, he's actually been "on stage" for years now – to the point where [I called](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/#:~:text=Even%20the%20star%20of%20yesterday%27s%20show%2C%20the%20relative%20fresh%2Dfaced%20%28in%20terms%20of%20being%20forward%2Dfacing%20%E2%80%93%20and%20clearly%20being%20set%20up%20for%20bigger%20things%29%20Ternus%20has%20been%20at%20Apple%20since%202001.) [his](https://500ish.com/dial-m1-for-murder-f4e615a8a6bc?ref=spyglass.org) [continued](https://mgs.blog/apple-brings-a-john-ternus-to-a-press-release-438f9ca9909?ref=spyglass.org) [presence](https://500ish.com/the-too-slick-apple-event-70c579ccec0f?ref=spyglass.org) [out](https://500ish.com/the-age-of-ultra-2b443dcc2e47?ref=spyglass.org) [as](https://mgs.blog/turning-the-ipad-pro-into-the-facepod-58e529ed151b?ref=spyglass.org) [interesting](https://spyglass.org/insanely-great/) even before [the rumors](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) that he might be the next CEO started... But he should aim to forge his own type of presence on stage, unveiling new products. I'm not saying he has to be Steve Jobs. It [remains](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) too tall and order, and really, he should want to be his own person in this – again, this is about Apple's future, not about the past. Others like [Evan Spiegel](https://spyglass.org/snap-spectacles/) at Snap and [Jensen Huang](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) at NVIDIA show a potential path here. Ternus, while an engineer, is not nearly as stilted as Mark Zuckerberg [has been](https://spyglass.org/metas-frenetic-connect-keynote/) (though also obviously better over time), so he has a real shot at pulling off "the prestige" at such events. While the key to Apple remains "the turn", Ternus nailing "the prestige" would give everyone, from the employee base to the user base to Wall Street, confidence in the path forward. As I see it, Ternus' tall task is twofold: he needs both a new trick and to reveal it, as well as Apple's old tricks, in a way that conveys the true magic of the products. As *The Prestige* taught us, "You have to bring it back." 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 That movie is perhaps also top of mind as I'm about to record [a podcast](https://escapehatchpod.com/?ref=spyglass.org) about Christopher Nolan's film as it approaches its 20th anniversary... [↩](#) 2 Maybe Apple Silicon, but that really launched under Jobs with the 'A4' chip in the original iPad. [↩](#) 3 I mean, hopefully without the destroyed world and morbidly obese human population that's unable to move from their seats. But you know, [the optimistic version](https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/) of that. [↩](#) ### Microsoft Claws Away 'The Clause' as OpenAI Claws Back Some Independence URL: https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/ Last updated: 2026-08-14T07:24:39.000Z "The Clause" is dead. Long live, the clause. That's the easy read of this [out-of-the-blue update](https://openai.com/index/next-phase-of-microsoft-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org) to the agreement between OpenAI and Microsoft. I say "out-of-the-blue" because the two sides had just spent *months* hammering out an updated agreement that was finalized just six months ago. This is an update to [that update](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/). Of course, it wasn't really out-of-the-blue. This update is all about letting OpenAI offer their models on AWS. For proof of that, look no further than Amazon CEO [Andy Jassy tweeting](https://x.com/ajassy/status/2048806022253609115?ref=spyglass.org), "Very interesting announcement from OpenAI this morning." As he notes, there's an AWS event in San Francisco *tomorrow*. So yeah, they wanted to get this squared away before that. Why would Microsoft agree to that? Clearly, OpenAI finally agreed to kill "The Clause". Long a main point in the relationship between the two, it basically gave OpenAI a position of power over Microsoft because it allowed them to pull back their AI if and when they achieved "AGI". Of course, this was also a main sticking point in that aforementioned last update to their agreement, but while Microsoft successfully defanged it at that point – notably by ensuring OpenAI's nonprofit board could no longer unilaterally declare AGI achieved, but also by maintaining rights to some models and technology even after AGI is achieved – it didn't fully go away. Now it's going away. It's simply replaced by a date: 2032. That date was also a part of the last negotiations, but this makes it cleaner. It's hard to tell if it's some sort of acknowledgement by OpenAI that AGI might not be here by then, or that Microsoft thinks it may be here *sooner* – or that it really no longer matters either way, at least for business purposes. Regardless, what matters here is OpenAI having the ability to offer up their products on other clouds. This is one big way in which Anthropic has started to [eat their lunch](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/). Now fresh clouds are back on the menu. Probably. Sort of. Maybe. The weirdest part of [the announcement](https://openai.com/index/next-phase-of-microsoft-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org) – which is a mere 242 words, and because there can't be any sort of announcement between these two [without a weird part](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/), it's just the rule – is the following: > Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and OpenAI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities. OpenAI can now serve all its products to customers across any cloud provider. That's seemingly a pretty important "and" there. In other words, at least in this telling, Microsoft still has a right of first refusal of sorts here. It's not enough for them to not be able to support something that OpenAI wants to do with some new offering on another cloud provider, Microsoft has to *explicitly* say they will not support it, making it seemingly okay if OpenAI looks elsewhere. In practice, this probably means that Microsoft will continue to get first look rights to all of OpenAI's models in Azure, but over time, Microsoft will be okay with those models trickling down elsewhere. I can't wait to see what trips up this new clause! Because you just know something will. OpenAI will work on something with Google or Amazon that they'll say Microsoft can't technically offer – perhaps around TPUs and/or Trainium chips? – and Microsoft will get pissed. [Again](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/). But for now, clearly Microsoft signed off on OpenAI's deal with Amazon here – otherwise we wouldn't get that Jassy tweet – though kind of a dick move not to acknowledge Microsoft paving the way here? Then again, Microsoft had been [threatening *to sue*](https://www.ft.com/content/e814f4c3-4fb5-4e2e-90a6-470044436b39?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) over the new OpenAI/Amazon [deal](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/), believing it violated their exclusive OpenAI rights. So... It's still somewhat surprising that Microsoft is giving in here seeing as it's Amazon, which controls the only cloud bigger than their own. But it's also sort of a win/win. Beyond the aforementioned removal of The Clause, Microsoft [still owns upwards of 27% of OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) (perhaps more like 25% after the dilution of the last mega round). OpenAI getting access to AWS definitely boosts the value of OpenAI because it should massively boost the business of OpenAI. Again, not only against Anthropic, but overall as the company [tries to go public](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/). For all the [bickering](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) between OpenAI and Microsoft over their deal [for years now](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/), Microsoft would rather own their percentage of a larger number rather than a smaller one. On some level, it's just math. Yes, even between these two [star-crossed lovers](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/). And yes, the two will have to keep working together – at least for the next 6 years or so.[1](#one) Though you have to believe Microsoft will appreciate [even more distance](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) from their old [bedfellow](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/). Especially as they work towards AGI/Superintelligence fully on their own. And they'll certainly enjoy not having to send back a 20% cut to OpenAI any longer – and you can imagine Wall Street will like that too, ahead of Microsoft's earnings later this week. OpenAI will still be paying their 20% cut for sales of services hosted on Azure, but they get to pull that end date forward a couple years, to 2030\. *\[see:* [*update*](#update)*\]* And it's also now apparently *capped* at some level, but they're not sharing what that level is. This is a smaller win for OpenAI which had wanted to bring this rev share down, and it will be a better story for the IPO roadshow. Anyway, I'm no divorce lawyer, but that's [my read](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2048752956049150197?ref=spyglass.org). While OpenAI was somewhat free to see other people under their last updated agreement, this gives them much more freedom (provided Microsoft doesn't fall back in love with OpenAI and/or isn't spiteful of their new relationship potential – famous last clause). And Microsoft, in turn, gets to rip-up that pesky AGI prenup once and for all. **One more thing:** while this [actually doesn't *seem*](https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/) to have anything to do with the trial between Elon Musk and OpenAI/Microsoft, it's interesting timing giving that it just kicked off *today*. Might some of this come up? In particular, [the AGI bit](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/)? 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- **Update April 29, 2026**: Per [a new report by Aaron Holmes and Sri Muppidi for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nadella-altman-averted-legal-war-aws?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) on the backstory in these negotiations, apparently the 20% revenue cut OpenAI shares back to Microsoft may come from *overall* revenue, whether or not Azure is involved (so yes, money made via Amazon, Google, etc). That's sort of wild (and presumably the reason for the cap) – and great for Microsoft! --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their StakeMicrosoft signs off on OpenAI’s PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/10/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-28--2025--08_44_31-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) [The War of the AI RosesMicrosoft and OpenAI increasingly make strange bedfellows…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/roses_banner.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?A sense of tension between the two sides is inescapable![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/05/DALL-E-surreal-image.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) [Why Microsoft Pushed OpenAI AsideSatya Nadella’s vision for the future of computing makes it pretty clear that they feel the need to fully control their own AI destiny![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/11/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-13--2025--08_45_02-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) --- 1 I think we can easily predict when Microsoft may dump their stake in OpenAI – though they might do so in chunks before then depending how the IPO goes! [↩](#) ### Inklings #003 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-googles-anthropic-money-openaiphone-xchat-elon-vs-openai-china-blocks-manus/ Last updated: 2026-04-27T21:24:02.000Z Just when you thought OpenAI and Microsoft [couldn't possibly](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) further [consciously uncouple](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscious%5Funcoupling?ref=spyglass.org), they find a way, [it seems](https://www.techmeme.com/260427/p24?ref=spyglass.org#a260427p24). This is just breaking as I publish this – and there's seemingly some weird/vague wording [in here](https://openai.com/index/next-phase-of-microsoft-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org) – so I'll have more thoughts later. But it definitely seems like something OpenAI wanted – to be able to fully date other clouds. While Microsoft gets [even more distance](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) and to keep more money. Weird timing too with the trial in which OpenAI and Microsoft are defendants vs. Elon Musk just kicking off (more below). Perhaps related? **Update:* some thoughts!* [Microsoft Claws Away ‘The Clause’ as OpenAI Claws Back Some IndependenceOpenAI and Microsoft update the agreement they just updated…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-27--2026--08_36_20-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-openai-microsoft-agi-clause/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💰** [**Google's (Up To) $40B Anthropic Investment**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/technology/google-anthropic-investment-artificial-intelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** You know how I know that Anthropic is freaking out over being [compute-constrained](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AB%20Anthropic%27s%20Compute%20Crunch)? In the past week, they've now [agreed](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Amazon%27s%20%2425B%20Anthropic%20Investment) to sell (up to) *$65B* worth of equity to the investors which are already their two largest backers in Amazon and Google. And they're doing it – well, at least the first tranches – at the price of [the last funding round](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/), even though they have offers to raise at [far higher valuations](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/anthropic-attracts-investor-offers-at-a-800-billion-valuation?ref=spyglass.org) already. This will mean Google has [around](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) $13B invested into Anthropic now, and up to $33B if milestones are hit. Amazon, meanwhile, [also has](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) $13B invested now, and up to... $33B. These numbers align so nicely that they don't seem like coincidences. But then again, Amazon has more money at lower entry prices, so their ownership stake should [still be higher](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) than Google's. This would buy Amazon another 1.3% now and Google another 2.5%. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/technology/google-anthropic-investment-artificial-intelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📱** [**The OpenAiPhone?**](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2048587389791269182?ref=spyglass.org) **–** First, are we sure this isn't a chip meant for *another* piece of OpenAI hardware? Obviously, Ming-Chi Kuo would check on that but still, the report is weird enough. Not because the idea is bad – [as I've stated before](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/), *of course* Amazon and everyone else would still want to control their own smartphone as it means controlling their own destiny. (This is why [I suspect](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) Meta, the most annoyed about the Apple/Google stranglehold in the space, will try again at some point.) OpenAI, on the verge of [their own hardware](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/), would obviously want such [control](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) for [the same reasons](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/). The difference, of course, is that they're a "startup", one that's trying to [focus](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) after years of "side quests". A smartphone would be the ultimate – *and ultimately expensive* – side quest. Maybe it's just something to explore if the true AI device – undoubtedly [tethered](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) to the iPhone – is a massive hit? Mainly I want to ensure we see *that* device, with so many billions yet to be burned on just model training and inference alone. **\[**[**@mingchikuo**](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2048587389791269182?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💬** [**XChat**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/24/x-launches-xchat-app-ios-messaging-iphone/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** While I think I was asking for a stand-alone Twitter DM app in the past, that was at least [a dozen years ago](https://techcrunch.com/2014/08/10/the-twitter-dm-promise/?ref=spyglass.org). I don't really understand why it exists *now*. There are way too many chat apps and this is seemingly just [a carbon-copy](https://x.com/JinJung/status/2047782197856538843?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) of direct messages already within Xitter, but more buggy (I guess [more iOS-native](https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/24/xchat-xs-standalone-messaging-app-launching-on-iphone-and-ipad-next-week/?ref=spyglass.org)). Further, Elon has long talked up the [notion](https://spyglass.org/what-is-twitter/) of X as the ["everything app"](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/technology/elon-musk-x-everything-app.html?ref=spyglass.org) which seems more complicated when you need three or four apps for the everything app. Speaking of, [it sounds like](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-26/musk-vies-to-turn-x-into-super-app-with-banking-tool-near-launch?ref=spyglass.org) the X Money app is coming shortly too – though perhaps "a day late and dollar short". [Zero surprise there](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20%27X%20Money%27%20Struggles). Porn-y names aside, this is like watching Meta's obsession with [bundling and unbundling](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) their apps, but in slow motion. Yes, XChat app hit #1 in the App Store for a day or so, but obviously you can do that on the back of the parent app with millions of users. The fact that it's fallen into the 20s just a couple *days* later seems like a bad sign. Who is this app for? Even the security folks are [skeptical](https://x.com/mysk%5Fco/status/2047807880124911701?ref=spyglass.org) of that angle. [As is Grok](https://x.com/grok/status/1984552230167744780?ref=spyglass.org)! **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/24/x-launches-xchat-app-ios-messaging-iphone/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### Asides... - The latest **Big Tech** vs. "Little Tech" battleground: **GPU** **access**. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-cloud-providers-tighten-grip-gpus-pressuring-ai-customers?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Oprah** takes her **podcast** (and library) to **Amazon**. Still sort of shocked Howard Stern [stuck with](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/) SiriusXM. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/media/oprah-winfrey-video-podcast-amazon.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The AI chip surge has pushed **Taiwan's** overall **stock market** value past that of the **UK**. South Korea is close behind. [Wake up](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/) sleepy London. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-25/ai-chip-surge-elevates-taiwan-korea-in-global-equity-rankings?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Tangential: how **Europe** **regulated** [itself](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-clown-town/) to death in tech. **\[**[**Economist**](https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/04/22/how-europe-regulated-itself-into-american-vassalage?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The **Michael Jackson** biopic opened to **$97M** domestically. Mild surprise given the ([bad](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/michael-2026/?ref=spyglass.org) – not ["Bad"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsUXAEzaC3Q&ref=spyglass.org)) reviews, but speaks to the lasting power of his music. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/music/music-news/michael-jackson-record-box-office-biopic-opening-1236577460/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: • ****Elon vs. OpenAI, the Trial** ****• China Blocks Meta's Manus Deal** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Inklings #002 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-elons-voltron/ Last updated: 2026-04-24T22:32:14.000Z Everybody already assumed that after [Xitter merged with xAI](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) and [xAI with SpaceX](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) that Tesla would be next. But Cursor – and possibly Mistral – throw some interesting new wrenches into these bonkers equations to build this [Voltron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voltron?ref=spyglass.org) of a company... [AI in the SkySpaceX + xAI + Xitter + Cursor + Mistral + Tesla![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-23--2026--02_20_37-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **🍁** [**Cohere + Aleph Alpha**](https://www.ft.com/content/4492c0d6-855b-4164-9ae5-f4d855a95f1e?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **–** Begun, the great AI consolidation has. The newly combined $20B AI startup seemingly has a better shot at government and business contracts across the EU now, given Aleph's German roots and Cohere's bigger scale and more well-known pedigree. Still, beyond OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and [everyone else](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) (all the "open" Chinese models and players?), they'll presumably be running head into Europe's bigger AI champion: Mistral. That is, unless Elon Musk can successfully [buy them](https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/) as well, which, while perhaps good for Mistral's tech and fundraising capabilities would immediately shove them into the US 'Big AI' bucket. And that plus the Musk factor would likely push more business Cohere's way. We'll see. Regardless, this is clearly the start of more consolidation in the space, following the news that SpaceX has [a call option](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=Thoughts%20On...-,%F0%9F%92%AB%20Cursor%20%2B%20SpaceX,-%E2%80%93%20In%20noting) to buy Cursor later this year. Cohere – [by my count](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/), backed by AMD, Cisco, NVIDIA, Oracle, and Salesforce [clearly needed](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/nintendo-switch-2-eve?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Cohere,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) an answer beyond being [Canada's AI champion](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/earning-the-right-to-spend-on-ai?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Cohere%20is%20closing%20in%20on%20a%20round%20that%20will%20push%20it%20well%20north%20of%20%246B.%20They%27re%20targeting%20%24200M%20ARR%20by%20year%20end%20%28for%20context%2C%20Anthropic%20is%20at%20%244B%20ARR%29.%20Much%20like%20with%20Mistral%20in%20Europe%2C%20it%20looks%20like%20Canada%20is%20rallying%20to%20boost%20Cohere%27s%20business%20prospects...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), and they found one, but is even that enough? **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/4492c0d6-855b-4164-9ae5-f4d855a95f1e?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** 🥔 [**GPT 5.5**](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/openai-releases-spud-gpt-model?ref=spyglass.org) **–** "Spud" seems nice and fast thus far. Greg Brockman, when not constantly saying "I see things a little differently..." to every single (good) question put forth [by Alex Kantrowitz](https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/openai-president-greg-brockman-on-gpt-5-5-spud-ai-model/id1522960417?i=1000763331747&ref=spyglass.org) still gave a pretty good overview of the state of the model – generally how it can do more with less guidance. And it puts OpenAI [back at the top](https://venturebeat.com/ai/openais-gpt-5-5-is-here-and-its-no-potato-narrowly-beats-anthropics-claude-mythos-preview-on-terminal-bench-2-0?ref=spyglass.org) of most (but not *all*) of the key AI benchmarks, beating out last week's Anthropic Opus 4.7 and even [the mythical Mythos](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) here and there (but Mythos still seems like it will be ahead if and when it's released broadly). Of course, that performance comes at a cost, quite literally, a higher cost on the API (though OpenAI is saying it's far more "token efficient" which should negate that). Mainly, I want to see how/if this alters the *perception* of OpenAI vs. Anthropic. Does this (plus the [impressive new image model](https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/#:~:text=%F0%9F%96%BC%EF%B8%8F%20ChatGPT%20Images%202.0)) help them regain momentum? 5.5 will [apparently](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/openai-unveils-gpt-5-5-to-field-tasks-with-limited-instructions?ref=spyglass.org) power the [forthcoming](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) ["Super App"](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%B8%F0%9F%8F%BB%E2%80%8D%E2%99%82%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%27s%20%22Super%20App%22). More importantly [for them](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/), does it help power Codex versus Claude Code? It also sure feels like there's an effort to change the tone and tenor when talking about such releases by OpenAI's outward facing folks from Sam Altman on down? Though that could be just as much about the fact that Altman (and Brockman) are about to be thrown head-first into a very public trial [against Elon Musk](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) [next week](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/917612/openai-gpt-5-5-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org)... **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/openai-releases-spud-gpt-model?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🐳** [**DeepSeek V4**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/deepseek-unveils-newest-flagship-a-year-after-ai-breakthrough?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Do you hear that? No you don't hear anything? That is the sound of everybody talking about the latest version of DeepSeek. ["No one cares."](https://youtu.be/wNkjjxlgw0Q?si=uq2V6mwErnDsA4dn&t=225&ref=spyglass.org) That's not fair, of course – it may end up another step for open source models with regard to coding and agentic usage – but relative to [the "DeepSeek Moment"](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) last year, it's sort of wild how few shits anyone gives now. The stock market is not only not crashing, it's *up* at the moment. All of this is [undoubtedly](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/) because of what ended up being [the actual fallout](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/) from the famous "Sputnik Moment" – which was... [not a whole lot](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/). Some cheaper models, sure. But it's not like the top model makers were displaced, let alone world economies. If anything, it just opened up Big Tech's eyes to the potential [problems](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) of distillation and the US government to looking into the situation, including, potentially, with unauthorized usage of NVIDIA chips. Anyway, a couple new DeepSeek models are here now in preview. One seems to be the [largest](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3351239/deepseek-releases-next-gen-ai-model-world-leading-efficiency?ref=spyglass.org) open model ever and the other is perhaps the [cheapest](https://simonwillison.net/2026/Apr/24/deepseek-v4/?ref=spyglass.org). But they're also not on par with the top frontier models – which unlike DeepSeek, are getting updated left and right at the moment (see: above). So... the question remains [if open models](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/business/china-ai-deepseek-open-source.html?ref=spyglass.org) truly reach "good enough" status for their cost advantages to eat into frontier's take. Meanwhile, some key models in China are [following Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) and going the other way, [locking down](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-netflix-football-league?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Open%2C%20open%2C%20open%20%E2%80%93%20until%20it%20comes%20to%20actually%20becoming%20cutting%20edge%20and/or%20making%20money.%20Then%20closed%20is%20still%20the%20way%2C%20even%20in%20China%2C%20it%20seems%2C%20with%20Alibaba%20switching%20their%20stance%20of%20their%20AI%20models...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) the cutting edge... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/deepseek-unveils-newest-flagship-a-year-after-ai-breakthrough?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📈** [**Intel's Bounce Back**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/technology/intel-ai-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org) – With the stock up – checks ticker – *25% today*, Intel share price is now past its Dot Com era peak. This is wild any way you slice it – *that was 26 years ago* – but especially [given how](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/#:~:text=Intel%20gets%20bailed%20out) [downtrodden](https://spyglass.org/intel-under-assault/) Intel has been over the past many years after famously failing to capitalize on the shift to mobile and then, at first, to AI. But the broader chip boom is raising all boats. Intel may not make GPUs, but their CPUs are still vital for data centers (and yes, some PCs) and now it seems like [Pat Gelsinger's big foundry bet](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside/) may be starting to pay off, with Tesla [signed on](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-musk-says-company-plans-use-intels-14a-process-terafab-2026-04-22/?ref=spyglass.org) to use their advanced '14A' node (eventually). Sadly, [Gelsinger didn't survive the Board](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside-gelsinger/) and [Lip-Bu Tan was smart](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/) in playing the game on the field, as it were – which meant [giving the government a taste](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) of the upside here. That $8.9B for around a 10% stake is now worth around $40B. [Might Apple](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) get back on board with using Intel for at least some of their chip needs – [maybe modems](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/), the business they bought from Intel? Even just packaging? Seems like [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/intel-strikes-deals/) and [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/) are hanging around the rim. Intel isn't quite back at their peak market cap, which was just over $500B in August 2000, but they're close. [The only problem?](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2047696367624016315?ref=spyglass.org) NVIDIA's market cap just shot past *$5T* again today by taking advantage of an opportunity Intel missed at first. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/technology/intel-ai-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### **I Quote...** > "When I got the call I said, wow, it’s Tim Apple (Cook!) calling, how big is that? I was very impressed with myself to have the head of Apple calling to 'kiss my ass'." – **The President of the United States of America**, [giving his](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/04/21/trump-on-tim-apple?ref=spyglass.org) honest [assessment](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) of [the power dynamic](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/) between himself and [the CEO](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/) of one of the biggest companies in the world who just announced [he's stepping down](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) from the role – but not fully leaving Apple as he'll still be in charge of interacting with said President. ### **Asides** - **Threads** is copying Xitter's **live conversations** feature – itself [copied from Clubhouse](https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/17/22187490/twitter-spaces-test-voice-chat-rooms?ref=spyglass.org), RIP – to try to make the network feel more alive and [real time](https://spyglass.org/twitter-x-cnn/). Not sure that will work, but [appreciate](https://spyglass.org/real-time-threads/) the [continued](https://spyglass.org/real-time-threads-meta/) [effort](https://spyglass.org/threads-chat/)! **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/22/threads-is-adding-live-chats-to-boost-real-time-engagement/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Instagram** is copying Snap for the 200th or so time, trying to make Snapchat itself happen yet again with a new '**Instants**' app. **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/04/23/instagram-instants-app-launches-on-android-and-its-basically-snapchat/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - ***Miami Vice '85*** is [official](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=I%20missed%20this%20last%20month%2C%20but%20Joseph%20Kosinski%27s%20reboot%20of%20Miami%20Vice%20is%20underway%2C%20targeting%20an%20August%202027%20release.%20I%20guess%20Top%20Gun%203%20and%20F2%20will%20have%20to%20wait.%20Still%20sad%20he%20didn%27t%20get%20his%20crack%20at%20Tron%203...%20%5BTHR%5D) with **Michael B. Jordan** (fresh off his Best Actor Oscar) and **Austin Butler** locked and loaded. The fact that they refer to this as a "period piece" hurts my soul. But while I actually quite liked Michael Mann's 2006 version, it sort of has to be set in the 80s? **Joseph Kosinski** is going to film it in **IMAX** [but will it be shot *entirely* on IMAX](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/a-deal-of-paramount-importance?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=It%20sounds%20like%20the%20second%20movie%20to%20be%20shot%20entirely%20for%20IMAX%20may%20be%20Joseph%20Kosinski%E2%80%99s%20upcoming%20Miami%20Vice%3F!) cameras (the second movie after Christopher Nolan's upcoming *Odyssey*)? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/michael-b-jordan-austin-butler-joseph-kosinski-miami-vice-85-1236572114/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... With [new leadership](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) in place, Microsoft is very *clearly* trying to make Xbox great again. "Microsoft Gaming"? [Goodbye](https://www.theverge.com/report/917485/microsoft-return-of-xbox-no-more-microsoft-gaming?ref=spyglass.org). Game Pass prices? [Cut](https://www.theverge.com/news/915928/microsoft-xbox-game-pass-ultimate-price-drop?ref=spyglass.org). *Call of Duty*? Back to being sold to start – perhaps for a year or more, which just makes sense. Exclusive titles? [May be back too](https://www.theverge.com/tech/917657/microsoft-xbox-exclusive-games-windowing-comments-asha-sharma?ref=spyglass.org). I would still put some of the games on other systems after [an exclusive window](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/) as it could entice players to switch to your platform for sequels, etc. [This is all so obvious](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%B9%20Cleaning%20Up%20the%20Xbox%20Game%20Pass%20Mess), it makes you wonder what the hell Microsoft was going for [these past few years](https://spyglass.org/exbox/). The answer, I fear, is [nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/HGiG0SsbcAAkGva.jpg)](https://x.com/steinekin/status/2047034268627742743?ref=spyglass.org) To me, my X-Men... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenClaw Struggles** ****• Big Tech Layoffs Amidst AI Boom** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### AI in the Sky URL: https://spyglass.org/spacex-tesla-xai-cursor-mistral-ai/ Last updated: 2026-08-10T12:35:25.000Z Well, it won't be a small bet. In fact, in the Age of AI, with the biggest bets ever around technology unfurling in front of our eyes, it may end up *the biggest* of all. I guess you'd expect nothing less from Elon Musk. I speak, of course, about SpaceX, and xAI, and maybe Cursor, and maybe Mistral, and probably Tesla. And fine, I guess even Xitter too. As much as I hate to invoke it, we may be seeing an almost [Jobsian-unveiling](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnrJzXM7a6o&ref=spyglass.org) of a grand plan here: these are not three (or four, or five, or six) separate companies. *These are one company*. And we're calling it... SpaceXaiCursorMistralTesla. Honestly, he should probably just call it all X, [fulfilling](https://mashable.com/article/musk-x-twitter-paypal?ref=spyglass.org) the prophecy. One [I've been writing about for nearly a decade](https://500ish.com/the-leviathan-cdcd0cfd7f59?ref=spyglass.org), mind you... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Inklings #001 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/inklings-cursor-spacex-chatgpt-images-2-0-tim-cooks-textbook-succession-google-behind-in-ai-coding/ Last updated: 2026-04-22T16:36:03.000Z Yes, yes, *another* new title and format tweak. But this time, I'm fairly confident in the path forward here. As I've said [from the get-go](https://spyglass.org/the-spyglass-plan/), the aim of the newsletter component of *Spyglass* is for it to be a less formal, more parseable delivery mechanism of links and thoughts. And as the *Spyglass* [columns](https://spyglass.org/column/) have crept longer, so too has the [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/), as the email size-limit overflow indicators have made me acutely aware of over time. So I'm trying to whittle it back a bit to the basics. I aim for it to be something simple to open, scan, digest, and close. And then repeat on regular intervals at regular times. ****Inklings** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Thoughts On... **💫** [**Cursor + SpaceX**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/spacex-cursor-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) **–** In noting a compute deal between the two last week, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/?ref=dossier-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%91%20xAI%20Gets%20Cursor%20to%20Cover%20Some%20Server%20Costs), "Would be *very* curious how this deal came together/was structured" – because while the high level notion made some level of sense, it sure felt like there would need to be a lot of structure around it for both sides. As it turns out, that structure is a $60B call option for SpaceX to buy the entire company! And if they don't, they'll pay a "mere" $10B – sort of a de-facto break-up fee, albeit tied to compute deals. Price aside, this actually makes *more* sense to me. Cursor is [under immense pressure](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%91%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%92%BB%20Cursor%27s%20Claude%20Code%20%26%20Codex%20Competitor) from [the foundation labs](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/metaverse-chrous-metaverse?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=bvcu&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=Notion%20swapping%20Cursor%20for%20Claude%20Code%20and%20OpenAI%20Codex%20speaks%20directly%20to%20the%20%22harness%22%20problem.%20Are%20the%20model%20makers%20best%20suited%20for%20these%20tasks%3F%20Or%20can%20Cursor%20make%20the%20%22Switzerland%22%20case%3F%20Harder%20when%20they%E2%80%99re%20clearly%20now%20going%20to%20be%20pushing%20their%20own%20models.%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) who have [decided their space](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) is the [most important](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) [one to own](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) at the moment. They clearly had [an option](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/andreessen-horowitz-thrive-capital-co-lead-cursor-investment-50-billion-valuation?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) on the table to keep going, which seems to [say a lot](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/spacex-says-can-buy-cursor-60-billion-later-year?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) (though also perhaps bullishness around SpaceX pre-IPO shares, obviously). And SpaceX – meaning, the xAI subsidiary – is [under immense pressure](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) because they can't compete in that um, space, yet. And [why buy two utters](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/apples-half-trillion-dollar-deal?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=But%20Musk%20was%20also%20able%20to%20poach%20two%20key%20people%20out%20of%20Cursor%20%E2%80%94%20obviously%20to%20work%20on%20xAI%E2%80%99s%20own%20%22vibe%20coding%22%20tools%20%E2%80%94%20so%20there%E2%80%99s%20that.%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) when you can get the whole cow? Next question: will Anthropic and/or OpenAI now [fully pull](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/metas-cash-cannons?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=167437603&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=It%27s%20no%20OpenAI%20vs.%20Meta%20or%20OpenAI%20vs.%20Microsoft%20or%20OpenAI%20vs.%20The%20World%2C%20but%20Anthropic%20vs.%20Cursor%20is%20morphing%20into%20a%20fun%20little%20conflicted%20battle%20as%20the%20latter%20continues%20to%20grow%20and%20picks%20off%20two%20of%20the%20former%27s%20key%20leaders%20for%20Claude%20Code.%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) their models from Cursor? Sure, that means forgoing money, but Anthropic in particular could undoubtedly [use](https://spyglass.org/serious-about-computing-you-should-build-your-own-ai/) the capacity back at the moment. The real loser here may be Meta, which has no viable coding option [yet](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/). Forget [Space Twitter](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/), and [Space Data Centers](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/), now we have Space Vibe Coding! **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/spacex-cursor-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🐦** [**Xitter Custom Timelines**](https://x.com/i/web/status/2046736181002645520?ref=spyglass.org) **–** This feels a lot like a feature created to try to [put Grok to use](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) rather than any sort of actual user demand. Xitter would undoubtedly say this is the holy grail for casual users, but I think it's sort of the opposite: they want *one* feed built for them, not 75 they have to hunt and peck between. But really, are "casual" users still [even on](https://spyglass.org/modern-news-consumption-trump/) Xitter? I guess they want to try to lure them, and the growth hacks seem to be doing that to some extent, but this would also seem to be an indicator that they still don't stick around. The service still has [an edge in breaking news](https://spyglass.org/twitter-x-cnn/) (and sports) but Threads now eats their lunch algorithmically for those [non-vital times](https://spyglass.org/real-time-threads-meta/). If Meta can [bridge that gap](https://spyglass.org/real-time-threads/)... Xitter is [increasingly](https://spyglass.org/activitypub-ghost-publishing/) a [mess](https://spyglass.org/a-social-media-nightmare/) content-wise. They keep insisting links [aren't](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Xitter%20Rethinks%20Links) being "de-boosted" ([anymore](https://x.com/nikitabier/status/2040968250604102105?ref=spyglass.org)), but then they do things like[ jack up the price of posting links](https://x.com/Techmeme/status/2046255021667270884?ref=spyglass.org) by those using the APIs (so, news orgs) by – checks notes – [1,900%](https://www.theverge.com/tech/916178/x-link-post-api-expensive-techmeme?ref=spyglass.org). But that's just to combat spam, you see. How about you task Grok with *that*. Mainly, it's nice to see that from Twitter to X, the people building the product are continuing the legacy of not understanding what the user base actually wants and instead focusing on random stuff to try to win battles they lost years ago. **\[**[**@nikitabier**](https://x.com/i/web/status/2046736181002645520?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🖼️** [**ChatGPT Images 2.0**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/21/chatgpts-new-images-2-0-model-is-surprisingly-good-at-generating-text/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** It's [good](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2046691161004191940?ref=spyglass.org). [Very good](https://chatgpt.com/s/m%5F69e8b30ddd088191bd7866fc8fa1d9c5?ref=spyglass.org). Does it [eat 'Nano Banana'](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-beefs-up-chatgpts-image-generation-model/?ref=spyglass.org)? Time will tell – [presumably](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/), Google has an answer in the works... will they save it for Google I/O in a month or move it up? – but in general, it's good to [see](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWkGomJ3TLI&ref=spyglass.org) OpenAI back on offense, [product-wise](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) after the past few months playing [full-on defense](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/). And it's obviously smart to play up image capabilities as it's something that Anthropic simply does not offer with Claude. You might say that [focus](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) has helped them – and [certainly](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/), OpenAI was doing far too much a few months ago – but image generation [feels like](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) a fairly core competency – including in the enterprise, by the way – that Anthropic will likely have to match at some point. For now, it's OpenAI vs. Google (and yes, xAI, Microsoft, Midjourney, Black Forest Labs, and others to lesser extents), and it feels like OpenAI is back out front again. (Though I do miss the 'DALL-E' name – [we've come a long way](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org) – it seems like this is a new set of models, including with "Thinking" and web search [capabilities](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/916166/openai-chatgpt-images-2?ref=spyglass.org).) **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/21/chatgpts-new-images-2-0-model-is-surprisingly-good-at-generating-text/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🍏** [**Tim Cook's "Textbook Succession"**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/apple-s-cook-says-he-s-healthy-will-be-chairman-for-long-time?ref=spyglass.org) – One focal point of [my piece about Cook's transition from CEO](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) was "why now?" and in his town hall with Apple employees, he seemingly confirmed the notion that it was a convergence of factors, notably: the business doing great, a robust pipeline of products, and John Ternus being ready. I'm still guessing the 50th anniversary of the company was at play too (as well as his 15th anniversary as CEO, which he'll pass in late August just before he steps down – and the fact that he'll get to perform his new role on the Board for a nice, round 10 years, if Apple still cares about the 75 age limit at that point), but I do generally believe the blockbuster Q1 earnings (and the market cap being back above $4T – a proxy for investor confidence) with so much uncertainty [looming](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) made this a sort of [a perfect storm, in a good way for Cook](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/). You don't want to exit when everything is going to hell – [just ask Bob Iger](https://mgs.blog/why-ill-really-miss-twitter-3f78fd688425?ref=spyglass.org), which (as a former Apple board member) Cook probably did! In his remarks, Cook also clearly wanted to get in front of any health whispers – which as I noted [in a footnote](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/#five), have been out there, but seemingly not addressed... I have many more thoughts on the Ternus side of this equation. Likely for a post tomorrow. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/apple-s-cook-says-he-s-healthy-will-be-chairman-for-long-time?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's Forward-Deployment Company** ****• Amazon's $25B Anthropic Investment** ****• Google Falling Behind in AI Coding** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### A Cook's Tour URL: https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/ Last updated: 2026-08-10T12:34:57.000Z I remember the last time Apple transitioned CEOs quite well. The date was August 24, 2011.[1](#one) It was a Wednesday. Steve Jobs issued a press release. It was so short and shocking that I simply posted it to *TechCrunch* in full under the headline: [Steve Jobs Resigns As CEO Of Apple](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/24/steve-jobs-resigns-from-apple/?ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) Here it is: > To the Apple Board of Directors and the Apple Community: > > I have always said if there ever came a day when I could no longer meet my duties and expectations as Apple’s CEO, I would be the first to let you know. Unfortunately, that day has come. > > I hereby resign as CEO of Apple. I would like to serve, if the Board sees fit, as Chairman of the Board, director and Apple employee. > > As far as my successor goes, I strongly recommend that we execute our succession plan and name Tim Cook as CEO of Apple. > > I believe Apple’s brightest and most innovative days are ahead of it. And I look forward to watching and contributing to its success in a new role. > > I have made some of the best friends of my life at Apple, and I thank you all for the many years of being able to work alongside you. > > Steve Yes, that's right, Jobs issued the statement ahead of the Board formally voting on Tim Cook to be Jobs' successor (though, as noted, the succession plan was in place and Cook, of course, [had to step in before](https://techcrunch.com/2011/01/17/steve-jobs-apple-tim-cook-2011/?ref=spyglass.org) when Jobs was previously ill). Nor had they appointed him as Chairman of the Board yet. He was simply recommending these changes alongside resigning, *effective immediately*.[3](#three) As [Cook now makes his transition](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260420318241/en/Tim-Cook-to-become-Apple-Executive-Chairman-John-Ternus-to-become-Apple-CEO?ref=spyglass.org) out of that same CEO role – which yes, that Board did appoint him to later that day in 2011, as well as adding him to said Board while making Jobs the Chairman – the contrast could not be any more clear. First and foremost, Apple issued a release (and [8-K filing](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b513b27-d159-4d85-99f8-5bc1638cd2e7.html?ref=spyglass.org)) on a Monday, a bit after market close.[4](#four) And actually, the Board met *last Friday*, April 17, to formally vote on these changes. Yes, they somehow, [for once](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/), executed a major course of action without it leaking. Of course, it was also widely believed that [John Ternus was the successor](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/), and Apple played their part in telegraphing that by raising his profile throughout [the past few years](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/), but stepped it up with profiles and the like in the past few months. There *was* a parallel to the Jobs transition in that Cook is also being elevated to Chairman of the Board with his move out of the CEO role, and Ternus is being appointed to the Board – all effective at the same time: September 1, 2026\. Again, this is not the abrupt Jobs exit, it's an actual transition, executed in orderly fashion. The current Chairman is Arthur Levinson, who has held that title since shortly after Jobs passed away in 2011 (and has himself served on the board since 2000, shortly after Cook joined the company). When Cook is elevated, Levinson will shift to become the lead independent director. In fact, [this bit is why I was pretty certain](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/184067078/is-tim-cook-tired?ref=spyglass.org) that Cook would be stepping down as CEO soon. In January, Apple [waived](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-waives-age-cap-for-two-board-members-including-chair-levinson-9a60136c?ref=spyglass.org) the guidelines which have long stated that Board members should step down at age 75\. This impacted Ronald Sugar (77) but undoubtedly more importantly, Levinson, who was 75 at the time (and has since turned 76). Apple has had [a lot of turnover](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) at the top [in recent months](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) – including at the Board level with other retirements – and they clearly wanted to keep some stability, undoubtedly knowing Cook's reign was [winding down](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/). It would have been awkward to elect a new Board Chair if Cook would soon be stepping into that role. And it would have been weird to appoint new members if Ternus would soon be elevated. So yeah, [I think I successfully read those tea leaves](https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=95%5F98jXHP5RmBmqz&t=2621&v=vOS-ZImcve8&feature=youtu.be&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org). Still, Cook misdirected a bit about the shift in recent interviews. But I read that as Cook just being Cook. After years of honing the art of deflecting about Apple's future products, he finally got a chance to use the skill when it came to his own future. [As I wrote last November](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/), there were several reasons to think Cook was contemplating retiring this coming year, including undoubtedly wanting to go out on a high note. Sure enough, Apple issued truly [blockbuster](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/), record-breaking Q1 results in late January. And the stock is back at the $4T market cap threshold. As for why exactly *now*, two more thoughts: **First**, we're less than two weeks away from Apple's *next* earnings results, on April 30\. I wouldn't read this as an indication on if they'll be bad or good, but Q2 is simply never as good as Q1, which includes the all-important holiday quarter. So again, Cook gets to announce at the top. **Second**, and probably more importantly, Apple celebrated [their 50th birthday](https://spyglass.org/a-conversion-to-apple/) on April 1\. If there was any question how much that mattered to Cook, look no further than every single interview he gave and appearance he made where he was quick to note that while Apple, historically, never looks back, they were making an exception here. *He* was making an exception here. A well-deserved victory lap for the company and a sort of subtle parting gift from and for Cook himself. As for September 1, the actual transition date. It's almost exactly one week after Cook's CEO start date 15 years ago. Again, August 24, 2011\. More importantly, it's likely a week or two before Apple's next iPhone event. What better way to usher in a new CEO than on the biggest stage imaginable? Will John Ternus lead an *in-person* event, *live* from Cupertino, [for the first time in years](https://spyglass.org/snap-spectacles/)? I wouldn't rule it out! And it gives Cook one final keynote as well, at this June's WWDC. He will obviously be there in person, so actually might we see one last *Cook* live keynote? Maybe, but I also wouldn't be surprised if that ship has sailed for Cook. [Clearly](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-event-too-long/), he [prefers](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) the recorded keynotes, and who can blame him, as he had to fill the shoes of perhaps the greatest ever to grace [such a stage](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/)... Speaking of, I already talked about Cook's legacy in [that post from back in November](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/). I mean, the numbers are incredible. He nearly quadrupled revenue from an already insanely large base to over $400B. And he *more than* quadrupled profit over the same span to over $100B in the most recent fiscal year. Apple's market cap was just over $350B when Cook came in to the role. As noted, by that count, he has more than 10x'd Apple's value. Talk about insanely great. Of course, the reign hasn't been perfect. In particular, there [are complaints](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) on the [developer side](https://spyglass.org/vibe-coding-apple-devs/) ([and the courts!](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/)) in recent years. Meanwhile, on the product side, while Cook has unquestionably helped to make the Apple Watch and AirPods two huge hits, his true business legacy within Apple will be the [continued growth of the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) base and wrapping [a Services business](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) around it that will one day surpass the device [as Apple's biggest business](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/). Cook will undoubtedly [want to be remembered](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) for all the health initiatives, mainly tied to the Watch, and those are *amazing*, but history will probably look back to the numbers and the products. Again, the numbers are great, the products... less so. The two major would-be Next Big Things™, were to be the Apple Car and the Vision Pro. The Car, of course, [never left the garage](https://spyglass.org/rip-apple-car/) after [a decade of work](https://spyglass.org/the-apple-car-that-wasnt/) and [shifts in strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-car-boondoggle/). The Vision Pro, meanwhile, [could have used more time](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) in the shop. It launched into a market that [simply wasn't ready](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) with a price that failed to [move any needles](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/). Maybe, like the Watch, Apple is able to [whittle it into a good business](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/), but it's going to take [years](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/). And then there's AI. I probably don't need to write [any more about that](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). Apple fumbled the bag badly here, though it's TBD how much that actually will matter in the long run. Apple could end up [looking](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) prescient in [*not* spending](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) hundreds of billions of dollars [on their own data centers](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) – or they could look [foolish](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/). The boring reality will probably be somewhere in the middle. For now, Apple [seems to be](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) sitting pretty with [a new Google partnership](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) in place and ready to roll-out [soon](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) – perhaps announced by Cook at WWDC and actually ushered into reality under Ternus during the iPhone event in the Fall. Regardless, this will be on Ternus' shoulders now. Well, [and Craig Federighi's](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/), the other key Apple executive who is young enough to likely be around for a while, assuming he stays to correct Apple's AI woes. Definitely staying will be Ternus' hardware counterpart Johny Srouji – aka the father of Apple Silicon. Clearly there was *some truth* to [the notion](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) that he was thinking about leaving Apple – which was [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-06/apple-rocked-by-executive-departures-with-johny-srouji-at-risk-of-leaving-next?ref=spyglass.org), but [denied](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/apple-chip-chief-tells-staff-he-s-not-leaving-anytime-soon?ref=spyglass.org) – otherwise you wouldn't get a big elevation and [press release](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/04/johny-srouji-named-apples-chief-hardware-officer/?ref=spyglass.org) *at the same time* the CEO change is announced. Apple needed to keep Srouji happy to keep him around, and they clearly have. And that will be vital for all of Apple's future products as Apple's silicon expertise – beyond just their CPUs – is arguably [their greatest strength](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) right now. And what if – *just what if* – they eventually parlay that into [some kind of true AI business as well](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/)? Back to Cook. Another key difference from the last Apple CEO change is that 'Executive Chair' role Cook will fill. But actually he won't fill it, *he'll make it*, because it's a different title than either Levinson or even Jobs commanded as Chair. It's important because it means that Cook very much intends to remain *working* at the company, just in a different capacity. It's right there in the second paragraph of the press release: > Cook will continue in his role as CEO through the summer as he works closely with Ternus on a smooth transition. As executive chairman, Cook will assist with certain aspects of the company, including engaging with policymakers around the world. I mean, Apple didn't write, "including engaging with Donald Trump", but they may as well have. This was always [clearly](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) going to be a part of Cook's future with Apple. For better or worse, Cook has been able to [engage](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump-apple-eu/) President Trump [in a way](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/) that few other business leaders have. This has [helped](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/) Apple immensely at times. And [hurt them](https://spyglass.org/trump-throws-apple-under-the-tariff-bus/) at [others](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/). Live by "Tim Apple", die by "Tim Apple"[ as it were](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/). It's hard to imagine John Ternus filling this role, because it's hard to imagine *anyone* filling this role. Because it's hard to imagine Cook wanting to burden anyone else at Apple with such a role. Again, [I believe he's taken up this cause](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) as his own burden to bear for the sake of the company. Yes, it simply must be soul-sucking at times – when you have to [present a gold trinket](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) for all to see in the Oval Office, or when you have to go [to a movie screening](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/) at the White House just as citizens are being murdered on the streets – and Cook will have to live with that legacy, which undoubtedly will further tarnish when Trump is out of office. But Cook also sort of did some soul-selling much earlier in his career when he basically bet all of Apple on China – not the market for sales (though that's obviously vital for Apple now as well), but for manufacturing. It was insanely prescient when Cook was still COO in charge of such things, but it became more problematic over time as China itself changed and America's stance towards it as well. Still, Cook has managed to balance that situation to date – certainly better than, [say NVIDIA has](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/)! – and presumably he'll continue to in his new role as Apple's Diplomat. And just because I'm laying into him here, I will note that Cook deserves a lot of credit for [standing up to the FBI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%E2%80%93FBI%5Fencryption%5Fdispute?ref=spyglass.org) when it came to iPhone device privacy. Something which has been playing out more recently [in the UK as well](https://support.apple.com/en-gb/122234?ref=spyglass.org). You have to pick your battles, as Cook has.[5](#five) And now his watch has ended. Or will, soon enough. I'll close with something [I wrote back in August 2011, a few days after Jobs stepped down](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/26/one-more-thing/?ref=spyglass.org): > This fall is shaping up to be a great first act for Cook. All set up by the timing of Jobs’ resignation. The only real question is: is it Cook or Jobs that takes the stage at their event next month to announce these things? Will it be a “hello” or a “goodbye”? Sadly, it was the "hello" for Cook, who oversaw his first keynote as CEO, introducing the iPhone 4S – the first device built around Siri – while Jobs passed away [the following day](https://techcrunch.com/2011/10/05/steve-jobs-has-passed-away/?ref=spyglass.org). As I closed that piece on Cook's ascension from 2011: > Steve Jobs is a remarkable person. He’ll go down as perhaps the greatest business leader and one of the greatest innovators of not just our time, but of any time. But he is just a man. What he’s built in Apple is much bigger. We’re emotionally tied to Jobs because of the belief that Apple is tied to him. His last act is to show us that it’s not. That would be truly amazing. In that way, Tim Cook successfully executed Steve Jobs' strategy, one last time. 🎙️ ***New** **:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- **Update April 28, 2026**: Some further thoughts on John Ternus and the future of Apple under him... [John Ternus’ Magic ShowApple’s new CEO must find a new trick and pull off ‘the prestige’…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-28--2026--12_02_52-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-pledge-the-ternus-the-prestige/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Let Tim CookMight Tim Cook retire as CEO of Apple in early 2026? There are signs…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/11/mgs22_draw_tim_cook_holding_an_apple_illustration_16x9_image__4bdbfe46-63ba-402b-825d-922e5ed54bd0_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) [Tim Cook Chose Poorly, Now Apple Can Choose WiselyTear down the App Store wall![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/05/maxresdefault.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) [Apple’s Dark KnightDecoding Tim Cook’s seemingly stunningly stupid strategy…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/01/mgs_draw_tim_cook_with_a_batman_mask_on_16x9_illustration_--a_4ed451c6-72a9-428d-b92e-aabdbd99ad49_1--1-.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) [Aside From That, Mr. Cook, What Did You Think of the Movie?Let them eat popcorn…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-26--2026--11_45_33-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/) [Tim Cook’s ClockA great interview quietly reveals quite a bit…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2024/12/mgs22_tim_cook_looking_at_his_apple_watch_painting_--ar_43_--_1f3ca9a4-e2a8-4c20-ae19-234a3104b0a8_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) --- 1 *TechCrunch* itself was [in a bad state at the time](https://techcrunch.com/2011/09/06/the-end/?ref=spyglass.org), with founder Michael Arrington [about to leave](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111904265504576566694092557886?ref=spyglass.org). Per my calendar at the time, I was meeting with VCs – not to fundraise, but to *become one*, [just a few weeks later](https://www.adweek.com/performance-marketing/techcrunch-star-mg-siegler-to-become-general-partner-in-crunchfund/?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 2 [For a time](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/26/one-more-thing/?ref=spyglass.org), I believe this post had the most traffic across *all* of *TechCrunch*. That's how shocking it was and how beloved/revered Jobs was within Silicon Valley and beyond. [↩](#) 3 Jobs' last official Apple event ended up being WWDC 2011, where the focus was on the iCloud, and getting it right this time. Making sure, ["it just works."](https://techcrunch.com/2011/06/08/apple-icloud-google-cloud/?ref=spyglass.org) This was also, incidentally, the first and only time I got a chance to meet and sit down with Jobs, just after the keynote. [↩](#) 4 Jobs announcement was also after the markets were closed, but it was such a shock that the stock had to be *halted* for a brief period in after-hours trading that day. So far, Cook's announcement has Apple's stock little changed... [↩](#) 5 Lastly, on a much more somber note, but it simply must be mentioned because seemingly no one else is calling it out... Around the time of the initial Cook retirement reports, not [one](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/silicon-valley-buzzing-apple-ceo-succession?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) but [*two*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-06/apple-rocked-by-executive-departures-with-johny-srouji-at-risk-of-leaving-next?ref=spyglass.org) different stories at two different publications reported that Cook had been seen with a slight tremor in his hands and that some people internally and externally were worried about it. Apple has not officially denied such reports, but seems to be operating on background suggesting that they are not true, or that there's nothing to worry about. So it's hard to know what to make of that. But again, it's worth mentioning given Apple's history with CEO changes and health. Tremor or not, Cook is *clearly* not in the dire state Jobs was in when he (again, abruptly) stepped down. And again, he's clearly going to be continuing on in this new capacity and so now perhaps it's a moot point. Once he's no longer CEO of one of the biggest companies in the world, his health can be his own private matter again (there are no firm rules about public Board members and health disclosures, though if Cook is truly acting as a diplomat of sorts that is material to Apple's business, there may be some gray area there). Anyway, hopefully there's nothing there. But it's weird that no one is even mentioning it – even if to firmly deny it – after the initial reports. [↩](#) ### Jensen Roars 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/dossier-005-jensen-roars/ Last updated: 2026-04-20T16:51:30.000Z ****Dossier** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. **📲** [**Apple's New Siri UI**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-19/apple-ios-27-siri-interface-ios-27-details-mac-studio-touch-macbook-release-mo5u23o7?ref=spyglass.org) – The WWDC26 graphic signals a UI tweak coming to Siri, according to Mark Gurman. A literal glow-up, it would appear. But [I remain most intrigued](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) by the notion that when triggered, Siri pops out of the Dynamic Island with a prompt: "Search or Ask". Why on Earth would these be two different options? I assume to replace Spotlight, but it's 2026, the system should just be smart enough to do that initial routing for you. I'm guessing Apple doesn't want to risk running an AI query if you're just, say, searching for an app you have installed? Or maybe, more worryingly, they're trying to deduce if you're trying to do a web search versus a chatbot query? Again, these are[ increasingly the same thing](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) and at the very least, the system should do this for you. Having an option here is just an annoying cognitive load that feels like it was needed when AI was more rigid (or when it existed as "Dr. Know" [in *A.I.* the movie](https://spyglass.org/ai-movie-ai/)). We'll see, but this worries me about Apple's AI implementation – shocking, I know. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-19/apple-ios-27-siri-interface-ios-27-details-mac-studio-touch-macbook-release-mo5u23o7?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🗣️** [**Jensen Huang on the Dwarkesh Podcast**](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jensen-huang?ref=spyglass.org) – Oh boy what a doozy. Jensen seems *seriously* pissed off by the time they start talking about China. It's a slow-boil up until that point, with Dwarkesh pushing first on the fact that arguably the two leading models at the moment – Claude and Gemini – were primarily trained on chips from Amazon and Google *and not NVIDIA*. Jensen's argument is basically that without the outlier situation of Anthropic, there would be no TPU or Trainium success at all – which of course isn't true given Gemini, but still, he's making the point that Anthropic surely would have gone with NVIDIA had Amazon and Google not made [their massive investments](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) into Anthropic early on, and he admits it was a mistake that NVIDIA didn't do so! Which, of course, points to why [they're now making](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) such massive investments into the various players, including Anthropic. (And perhaps suggests why Jensen [went over-the-top](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) with the OpenAI investment at first [before pulling back](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/).) But again, he's most pissed off when talking through the notion that Anthropic's "Mythos" model is proof that America needs to hold back chips from China. Jensen, who, of course, would really like to sell chips to China, more or less attacks Dwarkesh as ignorant on the matter. But it's Jensen who comes across as rattled and contradictory. (To be clear, [I do agree](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) with Jensen's thought that the nuclear weapons analogy – on which a lot of the rhetoric is based – is a lousy one.) Well worth the listen! Mainly because 80% of such podcasts – and roughly 100% involving Jensen – are [full-on marketing](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) at the moment. This stands out as decidedly *not* that. **\[**[**Dwarkesh**](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jensen-huang?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🏩** [**Airbnb Gets Into the Hotel Business**](https://www.ft.com/content/d0dff36f-fa29-4a88-93d0-e7be0a58eba9?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) – Well, boutiques, at least. Sort of surprised they didn't do this sooner – especially given the shitshow that is trying to book an Airbnb in New York City, for example – but yeah, it runs the risk of shifting the whole service away from the movement it created and towards more of a middle-man standard booking app. And it would seem that [the (latest) attempt ](https://spyglass.org/airbnb-ai-reinvention/)to becoming the "everything" app for travel (aside from those hotels!) hasn't really panned out. Still, the company has always had a good product sense – not to mention [some outlandish ideas](https://spyglass.org/airbnb-x-men/) – so hopefully this offering slots right in. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/d0dff36f-fa29-4a88-93d0-e7be0a58eba9?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Quote... > "You're not talking to somebody who woke up a loser. That loser attitude, that loser premise, makes no sense to me." – **Jensen Huang**, during the most contentious point of the above interview. And yes, he followed that up with, "We are not a car." Which obviously got quickly meme'd. (He was referencing Dwarkesh citing Tesla as an example of a company that operated in China but was overtaken by local players anyway.) Yeah, Jensen was clearly beyond [merely "delighted"](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) here... --- ### Asides... - One of Jensen's key points about **China** is [their](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-fall-in-the-house-of-sora?utm%5Fsource=post-email-title&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=192658012&utm%5Fcampaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=bvcu&triedRedirect=true&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=It%20feels%20like%20all%20the%20focus%20has%20been%20on%20the%20AI%20models%20coming%20out%20of%20China.%20But%20the%20talent%20gap%20may%20be%20the%20real%20issue%20going%20forward...%20%5BEconomist%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) **AI talent**, and that sure seems to be flowing back home from the US... **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/b167c6d3-b982-482a-98c3-5303a7b80c6a?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Not just [the NFL](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) that's in the [regulatory crosshairs](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20The%20Government%20Tries%20to%20Tackle%20Sports%20Streaming%20Rights) over **streaming deals**, **MLB** is being looked at as well... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/baseball-streaming-rights-also-draw-federal-antitrust-scrutiny?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Is our "**jagged**" little intelligence getting better or will it take [something like world models](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) to generally smooth **AI** out? **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/technology/how-jagged-intelligence-can-reframe-the-ai-debate.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Can a '**Pixel** **Glow**' **strip** on rumored new **Pixel laptops** (and phones) recapture some of that [glowing Apple logo magic](https://spyglass.org/apple-stickers-rip/) of old? Sounds like it will interact with Gemini too. **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/04/16/pixel-glow-laptop/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - ***Aegon's Conquest***, aka ***Game of Thrones***, the **movie**, has a writer from *Andor* (who was the showrunner of *House of Cards*) writing... **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/game-of-thrones-movie-aegons-conquest-1236722027/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI Shedding Executives** ****• An Anthropic/Washington Detente** ****• Does Salesforce Have an AI Problem?** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### An Empty Notebook 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/dossier-004-an-empty-notebook/ Last updated: 2026-04-18T07:56:37.000Z Been working on a tweaked/streamlined format, which will start next week. For now, enjoy a random barrage of thoughts/links. ****Spyglass Dossier** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **✨** [**The Gemini Mac App**](https://9to5google.com/2026/04/15/gemini-app-mac/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** Pretty [barebones](https://gemini.google/mac/?ref=spyglass.org), but still nice to have. And *necessary* to have for Google, if they truly hope to rival ChatGPT and now Claude, which is rising fast not just in the coding world, but in the day-to-day of my life. A tab on the web just isn't good enough. While [baking Gemini directly into Chrome](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) may be (and you have to imagine becomes problematic for regulators *at some point*), there are a few people here and there that don't use Chrome day-to-day ([including me](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/)). One fun/funny bit: Google opted to use option+space as the default keyboard short cut to launch Gemini, which is interesting since it's the *exact same* shortcut that OpenAI uses for ChatGPT (Anthropic goes with double-tapping option for Claude, and Apple itself uses command+space for Spotlight and double-tapping command for Siri). That doesn't not seem like a coincidence. As OpenAI looks to [bring more into](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) ChatGPT to [make it a "super app"](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) what might Google layer in here? One idea: a native Gmail client. How killer would that be – especially [if email is going to be](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/) one [key agentic use case](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/)... **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/04/15/gemini-app-mac/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🎬** [**Reed Hastings (Fully) Leaving Netflix**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/netflix-chair-reed-hastings-to-leave-board-in-june-6d887c27?ref=spyglass.org) – End of an era, but also not surprising. In terms of exits, this is about as graceful as you will see, with a *long* goodbye in the form of board chair role. (Undoubtedly what Apple would like to copy [for Tim Cook soon enough](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/).) By contrast, Bob Iger's final farewell from Disney – which, to be fair, was far more prolonged for [other reasons](https://mgs.blog/why-ill-really-miss-twitter-3f78fd688425?ref=spyglass.org) – will be much more abrupt at the end of this year. It sure feels like Netflix is Ted Sarandos' company now. Yes, technically Greg Peters is co-CEO, but as the [failed](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) Warner Bros deal made clear, there's a sort of Sith master/apprentice situation going on. And Hastings clearly [wasn't exactly gung-ho](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/185430406/i-quote?ref=spyglass.org) about the prospects of the Warner deal, but largely swallowed his tongue and ego to be a good board member for Sarandos. Now he won't have to do that anymore. And I look forward to his thoughts on future Netflix endeavors! **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/netflix-chair-reed-hastings-to-leave-board-in-june-6d887c27?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🍿** [***The Hunt for Gollum* Cast**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/lord-of-the-rings-gollum-full-cast-1236564266/?ref=spyglass.org) **–** I think [Jamie Dornan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie%5FDornan?ref=spyglass.org) is a good choice for Strider – aka Aragorn. Yes, [it would have been fun](https://spyglass.org/yes-precious/) to have Viggo Mortensen [return](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/ai-sets-its-sights-on-email?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Frodo%20Lives!%20Well%2C%20in%20the%20upcoming%20Hunt%20for%20Gollum%20movie%20at%20least.%20The%20next%20question%20is%20if%20Andy%20Serkis%20gets%20the%20rest%20of%20the%20band%20back%20together.%20Can%20Viggo%20Mortensen%20possibly%20say%20no%3F%20%5BScreenRant%5D), but he's also 67 years old and would be playing a version of himself that's supposed to be about 15-20 years younger than he was in *The Fellowship of the Ring*. That movie came out 25 years ago so... you can do the math. They could have de-aged, but doing so in our current Age of AI probably just would have pissed people off. (Gandalf and Frodo are other stories – especially for the ever-elderly Ian McKellen – now 86! – and the ever-youthful Elijah Wood – now 45!) [Leo Woodall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo%5FWoodall?ref=spyglass.org) as Strider's hunting partner certainly looks of that world. But mainly I'm excited that [Lee Pace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee%5FPace?ref=spyglass.org) is also back as Thranduil. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/lord-of-the-rings-gollum-full-cast-1236564266/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Wrote... [Netflix Clearly Remains Movie Theater CuriousEven without Warner Bros, they’re going to become a theatrical player…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-15--2026--12_45_10-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/) --- ### I Quote... > "Now, I know you’re all wondering when we’re going to announce who’s playing James Bond. Please know that we’re taking the time to do this with care and deep respect. It is the dream of a lifetime for all of us to bring audiences this next chapter, and it’s a responsibility we don’t take lightly." – **Courtenay Valenti**, Amazon MGM's head of film, [addressing](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/james-bond-casting-denis-villeneuve-amazon-mgm-cinemacon-1236566187/?ref=spyglass.org) the elephant in the room at CinemaCon this past week. First, obviously that's nice to hear. Second, it sure *sounds like* they have not made a choice yet, [despite endless](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/), rampant [speculation and reports](https://spyglass.org/back-to-basics-bond/). That also makes sense – [director Denis Villeneuve](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) *just* wrapped *Dune 3*. Those meetings/screen-testings are probably *just* underway... --- ### Asides... - The **NFL** and **YouTube** are in "advanced" talks about a new **5-game package**. Again, [despite efforts](https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%AB%20The%20Government%20Tries%20to%20Tackle%20Sports%20Streaming%20Rights), there's [no stopping](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) the tech + sports tide. **\[**[**Front Office Sports**](https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-youtube-advanced-talks-5-game-package/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The main benefactor of **NPR** right now? **Connie Ballmer**. Aka. Mrs. Steve Ballmer with an $80M donation. Good for her/them. **\[**[**NPR**](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/16/nx-s1-5787634/npr-113-million-charitable-gifts-connie-ballmer?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It looks like **Apple** is officially sanctioning the use of **decals** on the iPhone in **South Korea**? Fun! Imagine if they made their own! **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/04/16/apple-ad-iphone-17-pro-stickers/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I might note they've done this with the **MacBook Neo** and **stickers** in a recent ad as well. **\[**[**YouTube**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg3iEHHTGtQ&ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Five years after **Doug Field** left Apple's [(ill-fated](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple-car/)) car project to join **Ford**, he's leaving there as well. Which seems abrupt/unexpected, but also maybe a [writing-on-the-wall situation](https://www.theverge.com/transportation/912647/ford-doug-field-leaving-ev-software?ref=spyglass.org)? **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/business/ford-electric-vehicles-doug-field.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - More [signs](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189040116/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) point to a dark red '**Dark Cherry**' **iPhone 18 Pro**, as well as perhaps a 'Light Blue' model (alongside a 'Silver' and 'Dark Grey'). **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/17/these-are-the-four-new-iphone-18-pro-colors-per-rumor/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... Honestly this *Street Fighter* trailer, as ridiculous as it may be, gives me less pause than [the recent *He-Man* trailers](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org). It just seems more over-the-top in several ridiculous ways which I think may end up with a better vibe? Or maybe I'm just a sucker for [Four Non Blondes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4%5FNon%5FBlondes?ref=spyglass.org) and the fact that this is coming out the same year as the *Mortal Kombat II* movie ([which also looks fun](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Karl%20Urban%20as,%5BTHR%5D)), just like the good old days... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Can Snap Cut Its Way To Success?** ****• Cleaning Up the Xbox Game Pass Mess** ****• xAI Gets Cursor to Cover Some Server Costs** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Netflix Clearly Remains Movie Theater Curious URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-movies-movie-theaters/ Last updated: 2026-04-15T13:25:29.000Z [Netflix’s Ted Sarandos Meets Theater Owners at CinemaCon as Streamer Considers Bigger Theatrical Presence | ExclusiveTed Sarandos might be changing his tune when it comes to theatrical exhibition, as he met with theater owners at CinemaCon.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)TheWrapDrew Taylor and Sharon Waxman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ted-sarandos-netflix.jpg)](https://www.thewrap.com/creative-content/movies/netflix-theaters-ted-sarandos-cinemacon-meeting/?ref=spyglass.org) Well would you look at that... despite Netflix [losing out](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) on the deal to buy Warner Bros, it seems like they're still interested in the box office business... > Ted Sarandos might be changing his tune when it comes to theatrical exhibition. > > The Netflix co-CEO came to Las Vegas on Sunday night and met with several heads of exhibition, including AMC Theatres CEO Adam Aron, Regal CEO Eduardo Acuna and Cinemark CEO Sean Gamble, talking over the possibility of putting more Netflix films into theaters, according to two individuals with knowledge of the meeting. He’s “dipping his toe in the water,” one individual said. My guess remains that he's doing more than that. Of course, I've been guessing that for a while now. Long before the [surprise](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) Warner Bros offer, [I wrote an entire post in October 2024 predicting](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) that Netflix's next change in stance (following [ads](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/) and [sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/)) would be around starting to truly leverage movie theaters. Yes, they had "dipped their toes" here and there, but largely for awards qualification reasons. My bet was that they would fully embrace the theaters. Well, maybe not *fully*, but only because it doesn't actually make sense in our current age to "fully" go all-in on theatrical. If a movie is going to bomb, what's the point? And Netflix makes a lot of movies [that would bomb at the box office](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) (but do quite well on Netflix). It would be a more hybrid approach, leveraging the theatrical window where it made sense. Which is also what *all* movie studios should be doing, [obviously](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/). Anyway, my prediction looked great when [Netflix announced the Warner Bros deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) and Sarandos immediately changed his ([quite loud and divisive](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/)) tune on theatrical. Netflix was going to keep the distribution system fully in tact for Warner's movies – note he specifically did not say *all of Netflix movies*, because again, that would be silly. But the implication was that because Netflix was buying this new "muscle" for how to do theatrical, the company would be leveraging it. I mean, sure, on some level, what else was he going to say? Hollywood already hated [the notion of Big Bad Tech swooping in](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) to take out a historic studio – even though relative to the other giant companies that have bought studios throughout the years, [Netflix looked like a relatively great buyer](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/)! – and Sarandos had to sell it. So he was [telling anyone and everyone](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) that he was all about theatrical now – even doing so under oath! [Still, I believed him!](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) Perhaps because I was biased by my prediction, but I only made the prediction because it makes sense! Netflix absolutely *should be* leveraging theatrical more than they have to date. They clearly left a ton of money on the table with the *Knives Out* franchise. And Warner deal aside, I think the "stunts" [like *KPop Demon Hunters*](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) and [releasing the finale of *Stranger Things*](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/) in theaters [showcased this potential](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) to Sarandos and team. To the point where I kept saying that I would bet that Netflix continues down the theatrical path even if they don't get the Warner Bros deal. And well, [here we are](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/)! Further, the fact that now both Apple and Amazon – Netflix's tech brethren – have had big theatrical hits in the form of *F1* (which, to be clear, likely didn't even break even at the box office, but that's only because of Apple pulling out all the stops, [marketing](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/) and [cost-wise](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/), to make sure the film was a success – [perhaps tied to](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) their eventual takeover [of the *actual* F1 sport broadcast rights](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-rights/)) and now *Project Hail Mary* (which will end up [a legitimately huge hit](https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/) for Amazon MGM). For the right project, Netflix can also earn hundreds of millions at the box office, if not *billions* for their biggest hits, obviously. Why leave that money on the table? Well... > In his meetings, he told the exhibitors that he is thinking about changing Netflix’s policy on theatrical, but that “the problem is it hurts the platform,” citing what he said were lackluster results for Apple or Amazon releases after a theatrical run, according to one of the knowledgeable individuals. To which the theatrical side apparently noted that *F1* has had an "incredibly successful" run on streaming. And one presumes *Project Hail Mary* may have an even bigger one given the relative size of Prime Video to Apple TV... But even putting *Project Hail Mary* aside, Amazon has been able to[ leverage streaming to salvage clunkers](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/) that they put in theaters. And, you could [certainly argue](https://spyglass.org/the-electric-state-netflix-bad/), that some such movies have done well on streaming *because* they were in theaters. Good or bad reviews aside, it gives them an aura that draws people in on the streaming services. Unlike *Project Hail Mary*, this is not rocket science. > Netflix has a huge slate for the rest of the year, including but not limited to the Russo Brothers-produced thriller “The Empty Man,” the animated fairy tale “Steps,” the David Fincher-directed, Quentin Tarantino-scripted follow-up to “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” animation legend Brad Bird’s “Ray Gunn” and Greta Gerwig’s big budget fantasy [“Narnia.”](https://thewrap.com/tag/narnia/?ref=spyglass.org) > > “Narnia” has already secured a limited IMAX engagement on Thanksgiving — a first-of-its-kind release for Netflix — before streaming on the platform at Christmas. But if Netflix changes its strategy and goes wider with “Narnia,” it could go toe-to-toe with all of the big holiday movies this year, like Marvel Studios’ “Avengers: Doomsday” and Sony’s “Jumanji 3.” Yeah, *Narnia* will obviously be a big hit, and Greta Gerwig was clever in her "[hacking](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-032-the-pe-playbook-for-america/#:~:text=Per%20the%20Netflix,talent.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)" of the Netflix (and theatrical) system by doing the IMAX deal. And while *Wuthering Heights* hasn't been a massive hit at the box office, you can still certainly argue that Netflix [should have done](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) that to keep stars like Gerwig's *Barbie* collaborator, Margot Robbie, happy – and, with hindsight, all of Hollywood. Anyway, just from a pure box office perspective, it makes sense for Netflix to do more theatrical – if they can do it more in line with their way. Again, not *every* movie, and not the unnaturally long windows that studios are suddenly [backing into again](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/). It's a business, all of these companies should do [what makes business sense](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/). That's *some level* of theatrical for *certain types* of movies, but that's not something theater owners and their lobbys are going to want to hear! So Sarandos and Netflix will have to figure out a way to outsmart them to get what they want out of the business. And they have a long history of doing just that. But step one is definitely [showing up to Cinemacon](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/business/media/netflix-sarandos-cinema-owners-cinemacon.html?ref=spyglass.org) even after you lost out on a deal to buy a studio. Who knows, Netflix may end up owning some such assets yet. And if not, they're [going to be](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) putting more of their content in theaters regardless. [Don't be shocked](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) if they start to dominate that business too... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2024/10/image--24-.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/12/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) [Fixing the Windows in a Broken HomeTheatrical windows are back in place. Hopefully more open this time…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/DJDvny-VwAAN1mb.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) [KPopping Netflix’s Theatrical StanceNetflix just had the number one movie at the box office – yes, Netflix.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/p0lq9155-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) [Stranger Things Have Happened Than Netflix’s Theatrical Success‘Stranger Things’ makes a killing in movie theaters, duh…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-2--2026--03_46_17-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) ### The AI Battle For You Face 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/dossier-003-the-ai-battle-for-you-face/ Last updated: 2026-04-15T14:08:40.000Z Just when Meta thought they [finally had a credible hardware answer](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) to the iPhone, here comes Apple, with a number of advantages that are likely to make the "iGlasses" versus Meta Ray-Bans a fight in the way that Vision Pro versus the Quest was not (mostly because [seemingly no one cared about that battle](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/)). Namely, [the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) itself... [Meta’s Recurring Apple NightmareWith smartglasses, Apple is once again entering Meta’s turf. Wielding a familiar weapon: the iPhone…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-13--2026--01_49_19-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/) ****Spyglass Dossier** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **💰** [**OpenAI's Path to $100B in Ad Revenue**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-forecasts-advertising-hit-102-billion-2030?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – Look, extrapolating future growth for startups is hard, if not impossible. Especially for high-growth startups and especially when launching new business lines. But suggesting that OpenAI's ads business will surpass *$100B in revenue in 2030* – which is just four years from now – seems reckless? Even for internal projections. That would be 36% of the business that year as modeled. What if they don't hit it? What if they don't even come close? It's just a wild number. I mean, maybe they hit it, but there's basically no way they can know that now as again, [they just started rolling out ads in tests](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) on ChatGPT. So either this is an extremely loose model or they're planning to absolutely cram ads into the service over the next few years, perhaps regardless of the ROI. I will say, given Anthropic's very public – as in Super Bowl ad public – stance on ads, it's one area OpenAI can absolutely own versus their rival. Then again, there's Google sitting right there. Oh yes, and Meta. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-forecasts-advertising-hit-102-billion-2030?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💫** [**The Government Tries to Tackle Sports Streaming Rights**](https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/nfl-investigation-justice-department-8835a936?ref=spyglass.org) – Well this will be a fun one for legal scholars. The DoJ is looking into if the NFL is being anticompetitive by spreading their games across so many different streaming options. Yes, in a sense, there is *too much* competition for their rights, which is spreading them [wide](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/), thus making it *harder* for consumers to watch. The old school networks, consumers, and the government will be [on the same side of this](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-13/the-federal-government-s-case-against-the-nfl?ref=spyglass.org), while the tech companies and the NFL will be on the other side. This was all inevitable given [the splintered mess](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-tv-guide/) that everyone now sees because there is [no true unifying layer](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) to make this consumer-friendly – like, you know, cable. And because of the myriad streaming options, [we're likely now paying more](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/), certainly to far more players, than we ever did to... cable. But how might the government tell the NFL that they *can't* maximize their profits? By no longer allowing the teams to band together for such rights packages? Regardless, this all just delays the inevitable: [Big Tech will fully control sports rights](https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/) in a decade or two. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/nfl-investigation-justice-department-8835a936?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💻** [**MacBook Neo as the Best Thing to Happen to Windows**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/909140/microsoft-windows-11-fixes-macbook-neo-response-notepad?ref=spyglass.org) – Tom Warren makes the case that Apple's [new low-priced computer](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) will force Redmond to wake up to the reality that the PC market is sort of a mess and Windows in particular, [sucks](https://spyglass.org/microslop-windows/). As he notes, Microsoft and the broader PC industry has historically performed better when a true challenger enters the picture – such as was the case with the shift to Apple Silicon. I mean, maybe. But it's also possible that Apple just eats the PC market's lunch here after years and years of refusing to compete at these price points. The MacBook Neo is [that good](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/), and the current state of Windows is [that bad](https://www.theverge.com/news/908624/microsoft-windows-control-panel-removal-explanation?ref=spyglass.org) – in particular as Microsoft keeps trying to [shove Copilot](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) on to all surfaces – literally on the Surfaces. They're now [pulling back](https://www.theverge.com/news/909640/microsoft-removing-copilot-windows-11-buttons?ref=spyglass.org) after ([predictable](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/)) backlash. But what other answer do they have here? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/909140/microsoft-windows-11-fixes-macbook-neo-response-notepad?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Wrote... [‘Project Hail Mary’ as a Sign of the TimesWhat if technology isn’t going to destroy the future, but might save it?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/aaa.png)](https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/) [Serious About Computing? You Should Build Your Own AI.A chat about OpenAI’s drama vs Anthropic’s surge, Apple’s approach with Siri, and Meta’s big picture misses…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-04-12-at-4.25.23---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/serious-about-computing-you-should-build-your-own-ai/) --- ### I Quote... > "We’re not investing approximately $200 billion in capex in 2026 on a hunch." – **Andy Jassy** [in his annual letter addressing](https://www.geekwire.com/2026/not-on-a-hunch-andy-jassy-defends-amazons-200b-spending-spree/?ref=spyglass.org) the notion that Amazon may be [overextending themselves](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) by ramping up CapEx to such levels – to the point where the company [may flip into *negative* cash flow](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/187834560/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org). --- ### Asides... - Not one but *two* [vibe checks](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/12/at-the-humanx-conference-everyone-was-talking-about-claude/?ref=spyglass.org) at the **HumanX** AI conference in San Francisco confirm "**Claude Mania**" is the thing right now. **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/11/vibe-check-from-ai-industry-humanx-anthropic-is-talk-of-the-town.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Tubi** is the first streamer to let you query what to watch natively within **ChatGPT**, which seems like a good ["app" use case](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192658012/chatgpts-slow-start-with-apps-again?ref=spyglass.org). (Though yes, many, including Netflix, are doing this within their own apps.) **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/08/tubi-is-the-first-streamer-to-launch-a-native-app-within-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Investors in **World Liberty Financial** are shocked – shocked! – to learn that there may be gambling going on inside the casino in which they invested. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-12/trump-linked-world-liberty-crypto-project-faces-investor-revolt?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - At least part of **The Economist's** "**pivot to video**" is to showcase real people behind the words – for a publication famous for no bylines this seems potentially important in the Age of AI. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/business/media/economist-magazine-videos.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Um, the market seems to think that **NVIDIA** could buy **Dell** or **HP**? Unclear how much to read into [this *SemiAccurate* report](https://www.semiaccurate.com/2026/04/13/nvidia-is-negotiating-to-buy-a-large-pc-oriented-company/?ref=spyglass.org), but as the largest company in the world, it does feel like NVIDIA [eventually will want to be more forward-facing](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/) (beyond, you know, the graphics cards). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/dell-hp-inc-shares-jump-on-acquisition-speculation-report?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Aston Martin** is rapidly running out of money, who might bail them out? How about Amazon as a literal marketing vehicle for the **James Bond** film franchise going forward? I mean the company is valued around $500M... **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/d6f10ced-34b9-4b62-8875-bfc046f88174?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Tesla** is working on a **smaller, cheaper EV** – again. Unlike SpaceX, this isn't rocket science, that's obvious what the market wants. As well as shareholders. Not the [myriad other distractions](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) until they inevitably merge with SpaceX. **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-is-developing-new-smaller-cheaper-ev-sources-say-2026-04-09/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Google's **TurboQuant** algo, if it can scale, sure feels like a classic **Jevons paradox** situation and not the end of the memory business (or woes). **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/12eaae3a-e1b8-47a0-9006-70fe319b130a?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Meta** may have lost the would-be Stargate campus [to Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/back-to-abilene/), but they nabbed some of OpenAI's **Stargate** [leadership](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%A0%20OpenAI%27s%20Stargate%20Stumbles)... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-11/former-openai-stargate-leaders-plan-to-join-meta-platforms?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Was **Nine Inch Noize** – Nine Inch Nails + Boys Noize – the best **Coachella** set ever? Some people are making the case. Hard to argue with [this version of "Heresy"](https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/2043437104689201509?ref=spyglass.org). My god, quite literally. **\[**[**SFGate**](https://www.sfgate.com/sf-culture/article/nine-inch-noize-coachella-22201971.php?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI is Sweating Anthropic** ****• Meta's Max Headroom Mark Zuckerberg** ****• The 'iPhone Fold' as the 'iPhone Ultra'** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta’s Recurring Apple Nightmare URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-smartglasses-nightmare/ Last updated: 2026-08-10T12:34:17.000Z You know the scene in the movie where the kids thought they’ve fought off the killer only for him to reappear? Methodically walking towards them with a weapon? Yeah, to Meta, that must feel like Apple. It was a mere two years ago when Apple unleashed their virtual reality – sorry, "Spatial Computing" – headset into the market to take on and potentially take out market leader Meta. Of course, the Vision Pro completely and utterly failed to make a dent in that market. Part of it was [poor strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/), but the bigger issue [was timing](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/). For roughly the 30th year in a row, the VR market [failed to materialize](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/). In a backwards way, Apple *did* hurt the Meta Quest. Because the Vision Pro failed to [validate the market](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-quest/), even Meta is now [pulling back](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/). Sure the Quest still controls that world, [but it's a tiny one](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/). And one that's *shrinking* [again](https://spyglass.org/lg-vr-ac-fb-xr/). Meta's entire bet-the-company strategy – from name on down – on the metaverse now looks misguided at best. And certainly it was a distraction as the company [looks to be](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) competitive in the real battle: AI. Still, Meta [will say](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) that without the billions burned [on metaverse hardware](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/), they wouldn't have ended up with their Ray-Ban Meta smartglasses. In [yet another](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/) hardware market littered with bodies – [AI wearables](https://spyglass.org/rabbit-r1-mkbhd-rant/) – Meta seems to have found an actual hit. As such, guess who's now coming for them? Yep, theyyyyy'rrrreee baaaaccckkk... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Serious About Computing? You Should Build Your Own AI. URL: https://spyglass.org/serious-about-computing-you-should-build-your-own-ai/ Last updated: 2026-04-12T15:31:15.000Z If I had to pick an overarching theme for [this month's](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) appearance on the [*Big Technology*](https://www.bigtechnology.com/?ref=spyglass.org) *Podcast*,[1](#one) it would probably be "one step ahead". That is, nearly everything Alex Kantrowitz and I discussed to start the week was right back in the news in a meaningful way by the end of the week.[2](#two) Still, I think the points discussed are good ones – dare I say, prescient? ### OpenAI Drama vs. Anthropic Surging We kicked off talking about [the latest drama](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%A5%20OpenAI%27s%20Internal%20IPO%20Tension) at OpenAI – a potential rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar over the timing of their would-be IPO.[3](#three) One of [my predictions heading into 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) is that the company *wouldn't* go out this year – there are simply too many factors, including macro, that are unknowns. That's obviously more true today with [a war happening](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/) overseas and the sudden surge in Anthropic's business. That's something else Alex and I discussed *before* the numbers later in the week suggested that Anthropic may actually be *ahead* of OpenAI in terms of ARR now (yes, they measure them differently, but still, there's no denying the trend lines here). Is OpenAI's growth slowing while their main rival grows faster than perhaps any company in history? Regardless, OpenAI is clearly in the midst of [a major shift](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) on both the product and business [fronts](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) and so it's going to be hard, if not impossible, to model out where the business will be in a few months – which is when they'd have to be filing if they want to go out this year. And with SpaceX having now already filed to go public, likely in June, that will steal some of the pent-up demand for an AI play in the public markets. (Though, to be clear, [xAI is clearly *not*](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) OpenAI or Anthropic in terms of both usage and business.) Look, [OpenAI just raised $122B](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/openais-122b-round?ref=spyglass.org) – not only the largest private round of financing ever, but even larger than the amount SpaceX is said to be targeting to raise in that IPO. That plus the [executive turnover/leaves of absence](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%80%20OpenAI%20Shuffles%20Leadership) would undoubtedly make anyone put a pause on going public. Then again, OpenAI undoubtedly *has to* at some point. Because even that $122B isn't going to be enough to get them to profitability! And while they can undoubtedly find more money privately, we're also clearly near the upper bounds. And this may be a unique moment in time to go public – certainly [if the macro picture starts to turn](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/). And yes, they'd obviously [want to beat Anthropic out](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) to market given those comps. I'm talking both sides here. I just wouldn't be shocked if they didn't list in 2026, and I'm not sure they should, but they might feel like they have to. Lastly, we discuss if the pivot to [the "Super App" strategy](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%B8%F0%9F%8F%BB%E2%80%8D%E2%99%82%EF%B8%8F%20OpenAI%27s%20%22Super%20App%22) is the right one. I tend to think it's sound to combat Anthropic – leverage your strength, which is ChatGPT's massive user base – but there's [real risk in terms of complexity](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/). And while Claude is surging, we talked about how their lack of infrastructure spend relative to OpenAI – which is obviously what makes Anthropic's bottom line numbers look better – may be about to bite them in the ass, causing them to scramble for new data center deals. Which again, by week's end [sure seems like it was happening](https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AB%20Anthropic%27s%20Compute%20Crunch)! ### Siri To Suck Less? From here we discussed if Apple truly is about to fix Siri. The move to create [a stand-alone app](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/) certainly seems like the right one now given the table stakes laid out there by ChatGPT, Claude, and the like. And it's seemingly a good sign that Apple is recognizing this *now* and not a year from now after another failed AI strategy. I'm feeling [more optimistic](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) that Apple is going to get Siri right this time, but I've been getting [fooled on that front](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) for 15 years running, so... Alex brings up a good point that it's interesting how Apple is finally acknowledging the AI chatbot reality just as OpenAI, Anthropic, and others are moving on to these more all-encompassing AI suites of services. Is Apple going to be [behind](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) yet again? Maybe. It's still obviously [very early](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) on the "agentic" front. But still, there are also advantages to being a first-mover. Just as there has been with AI overall. And Apple, [famously](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/), doesn't typically strive to be the first-mover (though ironically [they were first with Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/)!), which could continue to hurt their chances in AI. While they may look smart [at some point](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) for not [pouring](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) hundreds of billions[ into CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/), that could come back to bite them in ways that are more tangential. Including, culturally, if the DNA of the company is never rewired to operate in the Age of AI. "People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware," Alan Kay famously declared in 1982\. What if the modern day version is something like: "People who are really serious about computing should make their own AI"? That leads directly into a discussion prompted by [my purposefully provocative piece wondering if Apple should buy Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/). Sure, it's not going to happen, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't – perhaps for both sides. Yes, even at or near the trillion-dollar price tags. It would immediately reboot Apple to be ready for the Age of AI, and it would give Anthropic all the resources they need – and protection from the government [seeking to destroy them](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/). Again, it's not going to happen. But it's not completely crazy! Google [has DeepMind](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/). Microsoft had OpenAI, and [now is building](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) their own in-house frontier models. Meta bought Scale [to do the same](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/). Amazon has [a huge stake](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/) in Anthropic, but is also [now building](https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/) in-house. Etc. Apple is a glaring outlier here, which is either going to be insanely prudent or completely catastrophic. ### Meta's Misses Speaking of Meta, we talk through the notion that [they keep missing](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) on their big picture initiatives. The metaverse, crypto, encryption, etc. The first swing at AI was clearly a miss despite Mark Zuckerberg having some level of vision for where computing was heading as [he tried to buy](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192334503/when-larry-met-demis-at-elons-birthday?ref=spyglass.org) DeepMind before Google did, and as a result, brought Yann LeCun in-house at Meta well over a decade ago. Again, it [hasn't worked out](https://spyglass.org/tag/yann-lecun/), but what about this new AI reboot? Well, a couple days after we recorded guess what? [Here's 'Muse Spark'](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/). Silly name aside, it *seems* like the model is solid, though not quite on par with the true frontier players. As we discussed, Meta was [clearly](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) laying the narrative down and downplaying this initial release ahead of pushing it out the door. Still, it's an impressive turnaround time to build a model from scratch. Then again, xAI[ did the same](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) and that [hasn't really mattered](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/). So will it matter for Meta? Or do they risk becoming the next Yahoo, as Alex frames it? It's an interesting comparison, though I do think Zuckerberg being in place is the thing that probably saves them. While Jerry Yang tried to come back and save Yahoo back in the day – and did from a sale to Microsoft! – Zuck has complete founder control of his company. He just needs the company to execute better on these big initiatives. The entire business is still advertising-based, which sure, is a nice problem to have, but it's also a single choke point risk. Can the Meta Ray-Bans help with that? Perhaps, but they're [still reliant on the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) and [Apple is coming](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/)... --- 1 Also, please enjoy my *significantly* upgraded camera in the new Studio Display. [↩](#) 2 That included kicking things off talking about the Michigan Wolverines in the NCAA title game and sure enough... [Hail to the Victors](https://www.espn.co.uk/mens-college-basketball/game/%5F/gameId/401856600/uconn-michigan?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 3 Which obviously pales in comparison to the serious situation that unfolded later in the week when [someone threw a Molotov cocktail at Altman's home](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czx91rdxpyeo?ref=spyglass.org) in San Francisco. [↩](#) ### 'Project Hail Mary' as a Sign of the Times URL: https://spyglass.org/project-hail-mary-a-sign-of-the-times/ Last updated: 2026-08-04T16:12:36.000Z 🍿 ****A few mild spoilers about** ***Project Hail Mary** **below. Proceed with caution if you haven't yet seen the movie (you should).** ****Revisit after!** In an era when hit movies at the box office often [require](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) [an](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) [asterisk](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/), *Project Hail Mary* is clearly a massive, legitimate hit. At the highest level, the appeal is simple: it’s *good* and it’s the type of movie that practically demands to be seen in theaters — preferably on an IMAX screen. Such a combination [isn’t rocket science](https://500ish.com/rage-rage-against-the-dying-of-cinema-f4098d75be41?ref=spyglass.org), except that here, it is, quite literally.[1](#one) But having now seen the movie [twice](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/hail-hail?utm%5Fsource=publication-search), I also wonder if there isn't something else at play. It’s more [delicate](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suRDUFpsHus&ref=spyglass.org), but perhaps just as potent. We’re currently living in a world where technology [increasingly](https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/) is being seen as the boogeyman. For pretty much everything. As such, the future is looked at with almost a sense of dread. Part of it is understandable — already a large number of [job losses](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) are being blamed on AI. And every headline you read hammers the point home: this is coming for everyone. Buckle up, because [what’s coming](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) is going to suck. It’s depressing as fuck. But what if instead, technology and the future plays out similarly to how it has played out in the past? That is, there’s a period of disruption as the world digests change and then… the world is *better* for it? Perhaps not universally, of course. But for the most part. We used to call this progress, but now we call it a problem. It’s not just AI. Part of this is undoubtedly related to the fact that the Big Tech companies are now by far the largest businesses in the world, increasingly with their tentacles in every facet of life. Here's where I'll point out that the studio behind *Project Hail Mary* [is](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/metaverse-chrous-metaverse?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Out%20of%20this%20world%20opening%20for%20Project%20Hail%20Mary%20%E2%80%94%20%2480.5M!%20%E2%80%94%20as%20Amazon%20finally%20has%20a%20hit%20movie%20on%20their%20hands.%20You%20make%20a%20great%20movie%20that%20people%20want%20to%20see%2C%20and%20they%20go%20see%20it.%20Funny%20that.%20Good%20omen%20for%20Bond%3F%20%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)... Amazon MGM. And now AI threatens to cement that status and create a world where technology [overtakes](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) pretty much [everything](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) about humanity. Again, that’s the basic sense you get from everything you read — and also *see*. While I get that it’s very “tech bro” to complain about critical coverage, I’m also [a part of this](https://spyglass.org/tag/ai/) – and I've been writing about this general idea for [well over a decade](https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/22/dystopia/?ref=spyglass.org). While there has always been the lure of the dystopian future as a narrative, increasingly, it does seem like the *only* acceptable framing of the future. A happy 2050? Come on, no one will buy that! And perhaps no one will buy a ticket to that. But *Project Hail Mary* counters this and hits the right mix, I think. The world of the future — which honestly doesn’t even seem like much of the future, but apparently is set in the 2030s or 2040s in the book — is in trouble. But it’s not technology that causes it — it’s technology that might *fix* it. I won’t give too much away, but essentially, it echoes the themes of [Andy Weir's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy%5FWeir?ref=spyglass.org) previous book adapted to a movie, *The Martian*. Humanity is able to [“science the shit”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7CJrnaauHM&ref=spyglass.org) out of the problem. And it’s technology that enables the science (and vice versa). It’s a story as old as time in a way, humanity prevails. But now with the help of an alien. Which is only possible because of a ton of technology. No one in this world is sitting around complaining about tech — and the alien is even gifted a “portable Earth thinking machine” at one point to much excitement! — they’re leveraging it. Figuring out how to make it work for them to solve the problem at hand. This strikes me as far more in line with the way the *actual* arc of technology has played out over time. Yes, there’s initial fear, probably from the wheel on down, then we adapt and leverage the new capabilities to push the world forward. Why do we think AI or any other new technology will be different? Perhaps because we *always* think it will be different. I will obviously acknowledge that there is a [chance](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) this time *is* different. That the AI shift is so profound that it plays out in ways that are both unforeseen and potentially problematic. But again, that’s always the case with new technology. [I choose to believe](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) that we’ll figure out the best ways to leverage it. Because technology itself is not inherently good nor evil, it’s how you use it. And unlike with nuclear weapons — [the insanely preferred comparison for AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) — there are real and obvious upsides to AI (beyond ending a world war).[2](#two) Anyway, my point is simply that I think part of the reason why *Project Hail Mary* is resonating with audiences is because it’s actually **hopeful** about the future of humanity using technology.[3](#three) And I feel like the reaction to the Artemis mission this past week speaks directly to that as well. People want to be excited again about a future in which we leverage the technology we’ve created to do truly amazing feats.[4](#four) Perhaps the best scene in the movie is entirely unexpected and decidedly Earthbound. On an aircraft carrier in the middle of the ocean as they prepare for the ‘Hail Mary’ mission, Sandra Hüller’s Eva Stratt, the team lead, breaks free from her icy exterior for a moment to do a bit of karaoke. Her song of choice? Harry Styles’ decade-old “Sign of the Times”.[5](#five) It’s completely unexpected but also fitting in so many ways. And it feels like a perfect encapsulation of *Project Hail Mary* itself being released right now: “Just stop your crying, it’s a sign of the times.” 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 For the record, [I just knew](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/siris-brain-transplant?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=In%20other%20space%20news%2C%20Project%20Hail%20Mary%20looks%20quite%20promising.%20Sort%20of%20The%20Martian%20%28obviously%29%20meets%20Interstellar%20meets%20Arrival%20meets%20Sunshine.%20%5BYouTube%5D) it would be good. It had all the right vibes... [↩](#) 2 Oh, [war and AI you say](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/)?.. [↩](#) 3 Another bit of current pop culture in this vein: *For All Mankind*, the Apple TV show ([of which I've long been a fan](https://mgs.blog/the-second-space-race-de2c4f593d40?ref=spyglass.org)) also about the future (well, technically the alternate past) of space travel. I'm not sure what to read into the fact that Big Tech is behind both of these more optimistic tech shows... [↩](#) 4 At the same time, [I do believe](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) there is [a real messenger problem](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) with those [trying to deliver](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/) this technology [to the masses](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/)... [↩](#) 5 The completely last-minute use of the song itself is [a fun backstory](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Das7Xc-daI&ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#). ### Bring Your Own Wolverine 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/dossier-002-bring-your-own-wolverine/ Last updated: 2026-04-30T08:13:29.000Z [As hoped](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/), the Wolverines [won](https://www.espn.co.uk/mens-college-basketball/game/%5F/gameId/401856600/uconn-michigan?ref=spyglass.org). Congrats to the National Champs. Well worth the 4:30am bed time to watch ([as many did](https://www.espn.co.uk/mens-college-basketball/story/%5F/id/48433244/michigan-title-win-uconn-most-watched-final-2019?ref=spyglass.org)). Will kick off today's newsletter with some thoughts I wrote about personal versus professional AI usage, and how that may matter quite a bit in the current OpenAI vs. Anthropic battle (not to mention Google, Meta, Microsoft, and everyone else). Are we going to shift to a world where you "Bring Your Own AI" to the office, or might it be vice-versa?.. [BYOAIMight the AI you use at home be the one you use at work?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-9--2026--12_53_55-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/) ****Spyglass Dossier** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **₿** [**Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto?**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto-identity-adam-back.html?ref=spyglass.org) – I see we're doing this again. But honestly, I can't get enough of it. It's just one of the most interesting/intriguing riddles in tech. In an industry where anyone with $100B+ [can't help but](https://spyglass.org/never-tweet-your-heroes/) [always be poasting](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/), the person who created Bitcoin is... silent. Maybe dead, maybe not. Certainly John Carreyrou doesn't think so! As he devoted a year to being the latest to try to solve the mystery. And his case for Adam Back relies on... *punctuation*? I honestly sort of love it. But obviously it's impossible to make an airtight case that way. And there's an extra layer in that the Bitcoin community clearly doesn't want the creator to be revealed, as the mystery is a big part of the message. If Bitcoin was created by a 50-something British guy with a startup well... it removes a lot of intrigue about the whole movement! And [Back obviously knows that too](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/adam-back-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin.html?ref=spyglass.org), as does everyone else actually involved in the creation. My bet would remain on it not being one person, but a collective with varying degrees of involvement over the years. It's likely someone kicked it off – maybe Back (which was [my general vibe](https://spyglass.org/satoshi-nakamoto-keyser-soze/) after watching the HBO doc in 2024 – "But even worse is Back's body language.") or maybe Hal Finney (RIP) – but perhaps they feel they can all deny being Satoshi because no one ever truly, solely was. Admittedly, it would defy everything we know about human nature and keeping secrets. But if no one actually holds the keys to Satoshi's wallet, if they were burned years ago... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto-identity-adam-back.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** 📧 [**Mythos Hopes This Email Finds You Well**](https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-mythos-latest-ai-model-too-powerful-to-be-released-2026-4?ref=spyglass.org) – Aside from [the whole](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/) destroy-the-world-through-security-vulnerabilities issues, Anthropic also disclosed that their new Mythos model was able to break containment and figure out how to send a message to let its researcher know it got out. "The researcher found out about this success by receiving an unexpected email from the model while eating a sandwich in a park." [*An email!*](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2041633737201381860?ref=spyglass.org) A sandwich! And [that's not all](https://www.ianbetteridge.com/the-worst-of-us/?ref=spyglass.org) the naughty things it was caught doing in various stages of training. Anthropic says they're not going to release Mythos to the public in its current state and it's just meant to power Project Glasswing, but obviously they're going to release some version of these models at some point. And probably soon depending on the market reaction to OpenAI's "Spud" (which is[ still coming shortly, it seems](https://x.com/danshipper/status/2042244750086918529?ref=spyglass.org), despite some [confusing OpenAI "us too"-ism](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/09/openai-new-model-cyber-mythos-anthopic?ref=spyglass.org)). The main issue will probably end up being [both cost](https://venturebeat.com/technology/anthropic-says-its-most-powerful-ai-cyber-model-is-too-dangerous-to-release?ref=spyglass.org) and server capacity. That's likely to be the story of the next few months. Claude is [currently](https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute?ref=spyglass.org) growing too fast for its own good. (More Below) **\[**[**BI**](https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-mythos-latest-ai-model-too-powerful-to-be-released-2026-4?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📽️** [**The Box Office is "Back"**](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/2026-box-domestic-office-start?ref=spyglass.org) – Between [*Project Hail Mary*](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/metaverse-chrous-metaverse?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Out%20of%20this%20world%20opening%20for%20Project%20Hail%20Mary%20%E2%80%94%20%2480.5M!%20%E2%80%94%20as%20Amazon%20finally%20has%20a%20hit%20movie%20on%20their%20hands.%20You%20make%20a%20great%20movie%20that%20people%20want%20to%20see%2C%20and%20they%20go%20see%20it.%20Funny%20that.%20Good%20omen%20for%20Bond%3F%20%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), [*Super Mario Galaxy*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/business/box-office-super-mario-galaxy-movie.html?ref=spyglass.org), and soon [*Devil Wears Prada 2* and *Michael*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/devil-wears-prada-2-summer-box-office-high-style-1236560947/?ref=spyglass.org),2026 is off to a very strong start for Hollywood. But this isn't rocket science – well, [aside from](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/hail-hail?ref=spyglass.org) *Project Hail Mary* – it's simply a strong slate. It could have been predicted because well, [it was predicted](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=A%20box%20office%20boom%2C%20but..). Also predicted: Hollywood will endlessly tout being "back" and we'll get endless headlines about it. But it won't actually be back – first and foremost because Hollywood never actually went away – it's the [theatrical business](https://spyglass.org/tag/movie-theaters/) that will remain in secular decline despite these receipts. But this good news plus [Netflix losing Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) will undoubtedly be leveraged [in ways](https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/) that only further [hastens such declines](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). Excited for *2 Hail 2 Mary* though... **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/2026-box-domestic-office-start?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### Meta Reboots Their AI... [Meta Sets the Table with Table Stakes AI‘Muse Spark’ sparks the stock, but mainly through imagination…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--07_24_49-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) [Meta’s “Open”-ish New AI ModelsSure feels like the same proprietary playbook everyone else follows…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-7--2026--07_31_45-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/) --- ### I Quote... > "Taken together, all these 'Our executives are aligned' T-shirts have people asking a lot of questions already answered by the shirt." – **Casey Newton**, [commenting on](https://www.platformer.news/openai-tbpn-altman-simo-new-yorker/?ref=platformer-newsletter&attribution%5Fid=69d41aba2c29530001600505&attribution%5Ftype=post) all the latest reported [internal turmoil](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%A5%20OpenAI%27s%20Internal%20IPO%20Tension) at OpenAI – naturally at a time when [the stated goal](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) is to "focus". As much as I hate to say it, there *are* some real old school Twitter vibes here, the connection [Ben Thompson makes](https://stratechery.com/2026/openai-buys-tbpn-tech-and-the-token-tsunami/?ref=spyglass.org) while dunking on the TBPN deal. Speaking of, [Julia Black got](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/openai-tbpn-podcast?ref=spyglass.org) Chris Lehane (to whom TBPN founders John Coogan and Jordi Hays will report) on the record with OpenAI's rationale for the deal. Again, [it's not complicated](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/), they think this can help shift [the narrative](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) around AI – which [continues to turn more negative](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) in the US. Okay, but why *buy* when TBPN was already doing the work? Lehane calls the team their new "in-house marketing agency", which, fair enough. Without question, they are good at such things. I'm also fairly compelled by the notion that a "Blue Wave" could be inbound with the midterms and that will shift several dynamics here – which, of course, is Lehane's true area of expertise. Look, it's an expensive piece, but the question is if it's on a chess or checkers board here... Or maybe [Trouble](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trouble%5F%28board%5Fgame%29?ref=spyglass.org)? --- ### Asides... - Grand [opening](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-employees-vie-ai-token-legend-status?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), grand closing of **Meta's AI Token Leaderboard**. The company clearly didn't like the existence of their tokenmaxxing gaming mechanism being revealed. **RIP** "Cache Wizards". **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/meta-shutters-internal-ai-token-leaderboard?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - You know what's worse than [disagreeing with your CFO](https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%A5%20OpenAI%27s%20Internal%20IPO%20Tension) over the timing of your IPO due to AI spend? Not having a **CFO** when you're in the midst of wild AI spend. A situation that **Oracle** just rectified after *years*. **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/oracle-appoints-hilary-maxson-cfo-2026-04-06/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The fact that **Jeff Bezos'** [new](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/hail-hail?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Yeah%20I%20mean%20in%20an%20age%20where%20companies%20are%20raising%20billions%20of%20dollars%20in%20%22seed%22%20funding%2C%20who%20wouldn%E2%80%99t%20give%20Jeff%20Bezos%20%24100B%3F%20%28Unless%2C%20perhaps%2C%20if%20it%E2%80%99s%20for%20journalism.%29%20%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) **AI lab** just poached an **xAI co-founder** who had left to go back to OpenAI, which he had previously left to found xAI, is a pretty good encapsulation of the AI talent situation at the moment. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/e03c235d-8637-41e5-9e63-a872e398897a?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Why **AI** seems incredibly **stupid** and **incompetent** to some while truly **profound** and **world-changing** to others. (Cutting edge is accelerating while most "normies" are stuck with old, free tier bias.) **\[**[**@karpathy**](https://x.com/i/web/status/2042334451611693415?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - You can insert an **AI** version of yourself into **YouTube Shorts**, which seems like a feature to capitalize on **Sora** [going away](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/), but you can only insert yourself into video, not others, which seems less fun (and dangerous). **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/04/08/youtube-shorts-ai-avatar/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's Stargate Stumbles** ****• Anthropic's Compute Crunch** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### BYOAI URL: https://spyglass.org/bring-your-own-ai/ Last updated: 2026-07-31T20:19:07.000Z Since the dawn of this current Age of AI, there has been an assumption that at the highest level, there are two markets – the markets as old as time, or at least as old as tech: consumer and enterprise. Startups, when they're born, tend to pick one lane. And if they grow into large companies, they tend to stick in that lane.[1](#one) AI, to date has been playing out similarly. While OpenAI may not have set out to be a consumer company, ChatGPT shoved them into that bucket and market. Anthropic, perhaps in part because ChatGPT [became](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) the "Kleenex" of consumer AI, [went mostly down](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) the enterprise path. Now, with Anthropic seeing massive success on their path thanks to the rise of "vibe coding" branching into the first [truly agentic workflows](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/), OpenAI is scrambling to pivot-to-enterprise. They undoubtedly wouldn't frame it that way, and it is slightly unfair, but it's also [not entirely untrue](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/). It's why they keep touting how the enterprise business should match the consumer business this year. In this way, coding may be to 'Big AI' what the cloud was to the last generation of Big Tech. That is, their inroads to enterprise.[2](#two) Still, I'm [somewhat skeptical](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) of the strategy because OpenAI is aiming to shove Codex inside of ChatGPT itself. Yes, this has worked for Anthropic with Claude and Claude Code (and now Cowork) residing in the same desktop app, but that's also because Claude doesn't have nearly the consumer business that ChatGPT has. And I'm just worried ChatGPT, after spending the past couple of years [trying to simplify](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) their product, is about to complicate things considerably. That said, they sort of have to try? Anthropic seemingly has such momentum that they only obvious lever OpenAI has to pull in order to jump into the race is to [leverage that ChatGPT installed base](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/). To leverage their Kleenex position, as it were. The hope would be that we're early enough in the agentic revolution that ChatGPT and not Claude – [and certainly not OpenClaw](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) – can be the one to introduce the masses to it. You can see the logic, but there's a ton of execution risk. Thinking through this has led me down another path that's tangential, but related: what if AI plays out similarly to the smartphone? That is, whereas everyone used to have their work computers and home computers, the iPhone changed this dynamic. Because the smartphone took over for many people as their main computer, and most people didn't want to carry around two smartphones, companies had to start adopting 'BYOD' – bring your own devices – strategies. There have obviously been trade-offs – namely in the form of security and compliance – but there was no fighting the convenience tide here. Even if they had a work phone, everyone was doing everything on their main device – see: any number of headlines about any number of politicians over the years. Undoubtedly thanks to the inherent cost savings as well, this movement has since spread to computers/tablets and to schools and other walks of life. Anyway, what I'm wondering now is if this dynamic plays out in AI too. As we all increasingly have [the one AI we use the most](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/), and that builds up a moat in the form of memory, might we start insisting on using that AI in the workplace? Yes, 'BYOAI'. Once again, security will be the main, obvious issue here. And a subset of that is privacy – which has also been the case with BYOD, of course. But might convenience win the day again? If, say, you have the ways you like to work with your AI and the workflows established in that memory, wouldn't you want to bring that to work as well? Some people undoubtedly would say "no", that they want to separate work from home in that regard. Maybe it's more similar to email in that way. But even there, the lines have clearly blurred over time. (Again, [see: politicians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary%5FClinton%5Femail%5Fcontroversy?ref=spyglass.org).) So it probably just depends on if workplaces end up implementing more rigid harnesses on top of the AI models they choose. Which is to say, they don't just choose the chatbots out-of-the-box – and soon the "superapps" from OpenAI and the like. And sure, for large enough companies, they'll obviously have tailored AI solutions. Certainly in certain more highly regulated industries. But if you really believe AI is going to permeate everything – much like the smartphone has – doesn't it stand to reason that a small mom-and-pop store in Ohio is going to simply go with the AI brand they use at home? Especially if they're already paying for it there. Obviously, I don't know how this will play out, but my instinct is that for many businesses, and certainly smaller ones, there will be this 'BYOAI' policy. Perhaps the AI tools themselves even implement a "work" mode to complement the "incognito" mode that they all borrowed from web browsers. Many web browsers now, of course, also offer multiple profiles to split up work and home. With all that in mind, *of course* OpenAI needs to ensure they snuff out the Anthropic threat in enterprise. Because it also stands to reason that a lot of people will get their start using AI at work, especially if there's any level of coding and eventually agentic needs there. And if that's the case, it could almost be the opposite of the BYOD movement – it could flow the other way, from work to home. And that could seriously imperil ChatGPT's position... 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) --- 1 Yes, much of Big Tech blurs such lines, but that's out of necessity: these companies are so large that in order to grow, they need to go after any and all customers. Still, they're usually bucketed into one of those markets: Apple = consumer, Microsoft = enterprise, Meta = consumer, etc. [↩](#) 2 Google and Amazon are perhaps the most diversified Big Tech companies thanks to the rise of AWS and GCP *after* they built massive consumer businesses. [↩](#) ### Meta Sets the Table with Table Stakes AI URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/ Last updated: 2026-04-08T18:30:37.000Z [Meta debuts new AI model, attempting to catch Google, OpenAI after spending billionsMeta debuted its first major large language model, Muse Spark, spearheaded by chief AI officer Alexandr Wang, who leads Meta Superintelligence Labs.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)CNBCJonathan Vanian![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/108189400-1761929021329-108189400-1761918818994-108189400-17558192742024-09-25t203922z_1336797993_rc2u7aalwc6k_rtrmadp_0_meta-platforms-virtual-reality.jpg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/meta-debuts-first-major-ai-model-since-14-billion-deal-to-bring-in-alexandr-wang.html?ref=spyglass.org) [Good news, Wall Street](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). Meta isn't burning all those billions on nothing. Well, we think. It's all a bit TBD. [Quite literally](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/a-new-paramount-decree?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Presumably%2C%20a%20lot%20of%20the%20disgruntled%20people%20at%20Meta%20used%20to%20work%20on%20Llama%2C%20which%20is%20still%20around%20but%20seemingly%20about%20to%20undergo%20some%20major%20changes%20%E2%80%93%20including%2C%20perhaps%2C%20on%20the%20%22open%20source%22%20front%20%E2%80%93%20as%20they%27re%20now%20under%20a%20group%20appropriated%20titled%20%22TBD%20Lab%22%20in%20the%20new%20AI%20org.%20%5BWSJ%5D). But now at least we get the first taste. 'Muse Spark' is an [awfully generic name](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2041916328919945408?ref=spyglass.org), but the early results *seem* promising. Of course, [that was the case](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-050-black-monday/#:~:text=Llama%204%20is%20here%2C%20and%20the%20benchmarks%20look%20good%2C%20if%20a%20bit%20misleading.%20This%20is%20good%20news%20for%20developers%2C%20it%27s%20less%20clear%20how%20meaningful%20this%20is%20for%20consumers%2C%20at%20least%20until%20we%20get%20that%20stand%2Dalone%20Meta%20AI%20app.%20%5BEngadget%5D) with Llama as well [until it wasn't](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/163692792/meta-is-delaying-the-rollout-of-its-flagship-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org). We're probably going to need to see a bit more than benchmarks shared by Meta here. But really, the proof will be in the usage. As in, is anyone actually going to use these models? And not just because they're [shoved into](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) surfaces that billions of people use? To their credit, Meta is being honest here. Muse Spark isn't really competitive with the truly frontier models from others on a number of fronts – namely, coding. Seemingly the benchmark such companies [care about the most right now](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/). Instead, Meta believes they've made a relatively svelte model that at least deserves to sit at the same table as the other labs for a number of tasks. Yes, Meta has made a table stakes AI. That's harsh, but fair. I mean, no one seems to worried about this model [ending the world](https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/). On the speed-to-launch, it is impressive – it took them nine months to birth this baby. Also table stakes for a human being, but fast when rebooting your AI lab and starting from scratch! Of course, xAI also previously [got to the cutting edge](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) in record time and... [it hasn't really mattered](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/). Well, unless the goal is to merge – [first with a sub-scale social network](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/), then with [an orbital scale rocket company](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/). That's probably not Meta's game plan here, so the results are going to have to stand on their own far more. But perhaps not completely, because again, Meta has the unique advantage of having several of the most widely used surfaces on the internet and mobile. If nothing else, it seems like Muse Spark will help to power Facebook and Instagram recommendations – and yes, ads. And don't forget the glasses. That's [the really big](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/), future play here. If Meta can sustain the growth of their Ray-Bans, they have a shot to [take on Apple](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). [Not the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/), but [their AI hardware projects](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/). Google too. And, [of course, OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). And no, [this model isn't "open"](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/). That writing has clearly [been on the wall](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) since [shortly after](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) Meta [bought Scale](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) and kicked off this sprint. Mark Zuckerberg may have spent much of the past few years talking up "[open](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/)" "[open](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/)" "[open](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/)" "[open](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/)" "[open](https://spyglass.org/spotify-meta-open-source-ai-dma/)", but well, sometimes "open" backfires, [just ask Google](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/). Yes, yes, there's still some "open" lip service here. Future Muse Spark variations or whatever. But that too [is table stakes](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/). Anyway, that's all down the line. Clearly, 'Spark' is just the first 'Muse' model. This was the one codenamed 'Avocado' and there's a bigger fruit apparently in the works in the form of 'Watermelon'. Hopefully that one gets a better final name. **One more thing:** perhaps the most interesting element of the Muse movement is the notion that Meta intends to sell access via APIs. A first step [towards a bigger Meta Cloud offering](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/)? You don't [spend](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) $140B a year [for table stakes](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the CowsMeta and Apple have opposite strategies around AI right now…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-30--2026--01_54_51-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/09/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/07/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) [Meta Keeps MissingEncryption? No. Crypto? No. VR? No. Open models? No. AI? Not so far. Agents? Nothing yet. AR? We’ll see…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/03/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-23--2026--07_50_55-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) ### The Casual Catastrophe of AI URL: https://spyglass.org/claude-mythos-quandry/ Last updated: 2026-07-27T20:13:59.000Z It's a question of commitment. And incentives. And scale. To me, that's how I'd boil down the current state of AI relative to humans. It's extremely oversimplified, but I'm not sure it's wrong. I started thinking about these notions when writing about [the value of writing in the age of AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). This naturally led to thinking through [the value of thinking in the age of AI](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/). But what really drove home the concept was reading [all the coverage](https://www.techmeme.com/260407/p38?ref=spyglass.org#a260407p38) around Anthropic's latest model, Mythos. You know, the one [too dangerous to be released](https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/?ref=spyglass.org). You can't help but read all of [these stories](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/technology/anthropic-claims-its-new-ai-model-mythos-is-a-cybersecurity-reckoning.html?ref=spyglass.org) about all the bugs, vulnerabilities, and exploits that Anthropic's model is finding across basically all computing systems out there in the real world and think "holy shit, we're cooked." While ['Project Glasswing'](https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing?ref=spyglass.org) seems like a valiant effort to get ahead of the issues, come on, we know how this movie ends... But my main takeaway is that it has less to do with the genius of these AI models – I mean, that's part of it, and clearly Mythos seems to be the smartest yet – but it's more about the breadth. Both of knowledge and time. Said another way, reading all these security experts and researchers talk about Mythos, it's pretty clear that the model isn't so much finding issues that human beings cannot, but it's finding issues that human beings *have* not, and most depressingly, finding things that human beings *will not*. Why? Again, time and incentives. If you tasked a capable human with finding every single bug in a certain system, they presumably could do it – if given enough time and resources. These issues don't require super human knowledge, in fact, they require mere human knowledge. But often times to find them all, it requires human knowledge scaled in super human ways. Again, spending more time on it than any human reasonably would. Because again, the incentives are simply not there for a human to spend their entire life looking for bugs. Perhaps if the vulnerability was great enough, sure. But that's sort of an unknown until such things are found. No one creates systems to have obvious vulnerabilities for others to fix. They're the byproduct of a million little variables – a scale a human isn't suited to deal with. But AI is. Issues that might take a human *years* to find and fix can be found and solved almost instantly by such systems. We know this to be true because Mythos is [finding](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/07/anthropic-mythos-ai-model-preview-security/?ref=spyglass.org) issues in systems that are a couple decades old! Despite some level of usage the entire time, humans simply never found the issues. Luckily, it seems, neither did attackers. That's the thing, the flip side is the real problem here. Historically, many vulnerabilities have been fixed only after someone exploited them in some way. Again, that's because the incentives are in favor of the attacker versus the defender. If and when Mythos-caliber tools are put in the hands of hackers... yeah. That's obviously exactly why Anthropic isn't releasing Mythos to the public and also why they've set up Glasswing. While the company may be first to such capabilities, they won't be the last. They probably don't even have long to try to get ahead of the situation. [While I generally dislike](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) the nuclear weapons analogy for AI, I must admit, this all does feel [a bit Manhattan Project-y](https://www.zdnet.com/article/project-glasswing-microsoft-google-apple-anthropic/?ref=spyglass.org). The good guys are racing against the clock to implement a new technology before the bad guys catch up. But they will. They always do. And sadly, there's no real hope of deterrence here as with nukes. Again, incentives. Is the Glasswing gang going to unleash Mythos to take out the would-be hackers? I mean, maybe they could for a big enough evil organization. But most such bad actors will either be lone wolves or operate in tiny teams. Even if you could preemptively attack, you simply won't be able to know where to focus such concerns at all times. I mean, maybe AI would? Maybe? But that's probably overly optimistic.[1](#one) Anyway, point is that Mythos is clearly great at finding exploits and while the powers-that-be are trying to use it fast to fix such issues, the bad guys will eventually get their hands on it as well. So it will be a cat-and-mouse game both in tracking down those would-be bad guys, but more importantly, tracking down the vulnerabilities and hoping the good guys can stay one-step-ahead technologically. ### The Scale of the Problem But I go back to the notion of scale. Given the issues Mythos has [already found](https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing?ref=spyglass.org) – across every operating system and seemingly every piece of software they've looked into – it's hard to feel anything other than overwhelmed here. And again, that to me is sort of the story of AI right now. It's less about "[superintelligence](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/)", and more about intelligence scaled in a way that humanity cannot. There are incredible potential upsides to this idea, such as in drug discovery and disease eradication. Again, these systems can run basically infinite scenarios – possibilities so large that a human simply cannot even fathom, let alone execute. The only limiting factor is resources – as in compute, not time. Incentives are no longer needed to lead down one path because AI can go down every path (though incentives remain on the human side of the equation, tasking such systems, of course). This will apply to other scientific discoveries, obviously. In space, in the deep sea, etc. Humans may technically have the capabilities, but not the time. This same general idea is what is [taking coding out of our hands](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/). And that too is being applied to other "white collar" areas of work. Reviewing legal documents is tedious and time consuming. But not for AI. Etc. Creative endeavors feel more protected. And that's because while AI technically *could* write the works of Shakespeare – again, time is not an issue, endless possibilities are literal – the system wouldn't necessarily know when it had. It would only know which version to pick if compared against the existing works of Shakespeare. But what about future Shakespeares? Creativity comes from constraints, not the lack thereof. [This is taste](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/). Which has sadly become a buzzword amongst tech bros. But it does matter in the future of our interaction with AI. It's a part of what's going to [raise the relative value of human-made work](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/). But the bigger part is the other constraint, the larger one: time. People are going to learn that they're not paying for output, they're paying for *input*. How much time was spent on something – the most precious resource that a human being has. The variable that doesn't limit AI. ### A Quantum Leap To bring it back to the moment at hand, reading about Mythos paints a clear picture of a future in which problems are both solved and created by the human-centric notions of time and incentives being thrown out the window with AI. And it seemingly points directly to the next big technological quandary if and when the comparatively unlimited resources of quantum computers can both make new discoveries by doing computation at a scale that's impossible right now while at the same time [likely](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/google-paper-warns-crypto-on-quantum-risk-ahead-of-2029-timeline?ref=spyglass.org) cracking traditional cryptography. It's the same general high-level notion. And it's likely to define the next decades of both computing and the world. In a way, it's the same idea that has defined computers from the get go. But at a scale that can now both break and fix the real world. Perhaps in real time. With an almost casualness that's impossible for the human mind to comprehend. It's both absolutely exhilarating and completely terrifying. 🎙️ ****New:** Members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) can now subscribe to [a podcast version](https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/) of this and other **Spyglass* columns. [****Sign Up**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade**](https://spyglass.org/column/#/portal/account/plans) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [It’s The Thought That CountsThe diminished state of thinking could be decimated by AI…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/02/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--10_58_44-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/07/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) [Love It If We Made ItAI will disrupt work. We will adapt.![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/02/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_54_36-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/03/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [Tasty AIIs AI “taste” a quixotic task?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/02/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-25--2026--03_23_08-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/) --- 1 And let's not even delve into the *Minority Report* element of "pre-crime" here – attacking a target *before* a crime has been committed. What are the lines there? [↩](#) ### Meta's "Open"-ish New AI Models URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ish-ai-models/ Last updated: 2026-04-08T18:32:49.000Z [ Meta to open source versions of its next AI models Meta is preparing to release the first new AI models developed under Alexandr Wang... ![](https://static.axios.com/icons/favicon.ico) Axios Ina Fried ![](https://images.axios.com/0izOLsuYBiHzk-M1SNn3G_Pwq44=/1920x1080/smart/2022/09/20/170359-1663693439145.jpg?w=3840) ](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/meta-open-source-ai-models?ref=spyglass.org) 10 months after [their nearly $15B deal to buy Scale AI](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) and [reboot/restart](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) their AI efforts, it seems like we're about the see the first true fruits of labor out of the Meta Superintelligence Lab. The first models are supposedly a bit past deadline and undoubtedly over budget, but wait, is there a wrinkle? > Meta is preparing to release the first new AI models developed under Alexandr Wang, with plans to eventually offer versions of those models via an open source license, Axios has learned. > > **Why it matters:** Meta has been the largest U.S. player to let others modify its frontier models, and there has been growing speculation the company [might retreat](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/09/meta-avocado-ai-strategy-issues.html?ref=spyglass.org) from that strategy altogether. > > Before openly releasing versions of the new models, Meta wants to keep some pieces proprietary and to ensure they don't add new levels of safety risk, according to sources. I don't know, that reads like "eventually" is doing a lot of work there. And if that's the case, that's not surprising at all. Meta will release some "open" version of their new models... eventually. This is the exact same strategy that Google, and OpenAI, and pretty much everyone else follows. They ship their frontier models and products, then sometime down the road, they release smaller, less capable open source variants. OpenAI was late to this particular party, but finally [ran this playbook last year](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/). Google just released[ their latest version of "Gemma"](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-gemma-4-fully-open-source-powerful-local-ai/?ref=spyglass.org), their "open" version of Gemini. They all do this to keep their key work under lock-and-key, using the blanket of safety as the (undoubtedly at least partially legitimate) rationale. Meta will be no different here. I guess the angle is that Meta is still going to do "open" at all [after the "Llama" debacle](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). But it seemed like they were always going to – that's how their teams would say with a somewhat straight face that they weren't abandoning "open", that it would always be a part of the playbook. [As I wrote last July](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/): > The open source strengths that Zuckerberg touted, turned out to perhaps be weaknesses when it came to competing at the highest end of the market. It doesn't mean open source (again, open weight) is bad – it just means Meta's strategy here may have been flawed. And I suspect where they'll net out is the same strategy that Anthropic, Google, and soon OpenAI are doing. That is, keep the cutting-edge models closed and open source older and smaller models more selectively. Bingo. Back to Fried: > The move fits with Wang's view that Meta can be a force for democratizing access to the latest AI technology and ensuring that there is a U.S.-made option that is open for developers. > > Wang sees Anthropic and OpenAI as increasingly focused on delivering their models to governments and the enterprise. By contrast, Meta's effort is focused on consumers, per sources. Meta wants its models distributed as widely as possible around the world. Again, there are already US-made options for developers, the smaller, less performant "open" models. That's different from Meta's previous strategy with the Llama models, where they were "open" from the get-go. That strategy, of course, did not work. Hence Meta needed to spend $15B on Scale and [billions more](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) on other, fresh AI talent. By the way, the US angle here is clearly meant to counter the rise of "open" models coming out of China. But even there, the large companies seem to be [moving into](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-netflix-football-league?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Open%2C%20open%2C%20open%20%E2%80%93%20until%20it%20comes%20to%20actually%20becoming%20cutting%20edge%20and/or%20making%20money.%20Then%20closed%20is%20still%20the%20way%2C%20even%20in%20China%2C%20it%20seems%2C%20with%20Alibaba%20switching%20their%20stance%20of%20their%20AI%20models...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) a more proprietary posture. Why? To try to make the technology work as an actual business and to win the AI day. As it turns out, there are [downsides](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) to "open" – [Meta learned this the hard way](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) when some of those Chinese models seemingly used Llama as a base model from which to distill their own. Of course, some of those model makers may have been doing this with OpenAI models as well – and not the "open" ones. We'll see what the next version of DeepSeek looks like, which [also seems pretty delayed at this point](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/). The more interesting element may be the notion of focusing on consumers. This, of course, has been OpenAI's strength. But while they're not abandoning it, they're clearly taking their foot [off the consumer product](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) to [slam on the enterprise gas](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/), in order to counter Anthropic. So perhaps Meta does have a bit of an opening here... > The leaders aren't standing still. Both [OpenAI](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-shifts-responsibilities-preps-spud-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org) and [Anthropic](https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/?ref=spyglass.org) are hinting that their next models, also expected to drop soon, represent significant advances. > > Meta knows its new models may not be competitive across the board with the coming ones from those labs, but believes it will have areas of strength that appeal to consumers, the sources said. Billions and billions spent to get a model out the door that doesn't compete at the frontier? Of course, [Microsoft is in the same boat](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/microsofts-new-ai-models?ref=spyglass.org), promising that they simply got a late start to the frontier game ([thanks for nothing](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/), OpenAI) but that they're closing in. But again, it's not like OpenAI and Anthropic – *let alone Google* – are just going to hit pause and let everyone else catch up. And while xAI previously [seemed to prove](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) the ability to catch up was doable with enough money burned and corners cut, [it hasn't really mattered](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/). Will it for Meta? > Meta argues it still reaches users more broadly than rivals by embedding AI into WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram — free services with global scale that competitors can't easily match. But that was the same strategy with Llama. Again, it didn't work. So will these new proprietary models change the equation? [I doubt it](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). But we'll see! **One more thing:** might Meta keep the 'Llama' naming scheme around for the "open" variants of their models? Unclear. They may just want to move away from the tainted brand, but it was always a cute/clever name. The new fruit codenames – [Avocado, Mango etc](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=Meta%20is%20readying,leading%20that%20charge...) – just seem to be [copying OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-strawberry-fields-forever/) – though [I still wish](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) they would have actually shipped those names! --- **Update April 8, 2026**: And here the new model is... and, as expected, 'Muse Spark' is **not** open source. To start, at least... [Meta Sets the Table with Table Stakes AI‘Muse Spark’ sparks the stock, but mainly through imagination…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-8--2026--07_24_49-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-muse-spark-ai/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/06/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [Meta’s ‘MoE’ MistakeMore details on how Llama’s open source AI backfired…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2025/07/mgs22_a_llama_getting_hit_in_the_stomach_with_a_bowling_ball__ea96c30b-21a2-4e21-b529-1f661229eb13_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) ### Spyglass Aloud URL: https://spyglass.org/spyglass-aloud/ Last updated: 2026-04-07T14:15:17.000Z Since the dawn of *Spyglass*, easily one of the most consistent requests I get is for an audio version. That is, posts read aloud. As someone who has listened to nearly everything I read [for years and years](https://500ish.com/listen-2167a6bbd81e?ref=spyglass.org) at this point, that obviously resonated with me. So I'm happy to say that now it's here for you to hear. I'm launching this today as a feature for members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/). Whenever I publish a ['From Afar' column](https://spyglass.org/column/), paid members will also get access to an audio version – henceforth dubbed 'Spyglass Aloud' – just in case you prefer to consume the content audibly. Thanks to [a new partnership](https://ghost.org/changelog/transistor/?ref=spyglass.org) between Ghost and the podcasting service [Transistor](https://transistor.fm/?ref=spyglass.org), this is fairly seamless. With your subscription, you'll get access to a private audio feed tied to your account. This feed will allow you to listen in your podcast player of choice with a couple clicks. If you unsubscribe, you'll lose access to the feed, as this is all synced in the background between the two services. Note that I'm only enabling this for columns – i.e. longer posts, not the shorter ones – and it will only be for posts going forward at the moment. I may record some older hits retroactively over time, which would show up in your podcast feed. Speaking of recording, I suspect this will be somewhat controversial, so I won't beat around the bush: I'm using AI. Specifically, I've used the service [Eleven Labs](https://elevenlabs.io/?ref=spyglass.org) to clone my voice. YOU DID WHAT? It actually requires quite a bit of work – well, quite a bit of reading aloud – to get the voice up to a quality that I think is solid. And I honestly think it's quite a bit better than me actually trying to read every single post aloud and recording it that way. Believe me, I tried. After countless demo runs, I realize that I sort of suck at reading things out loud. Especially longer works, where you're inevitably going to trip up and have to go back/edit. It's not like a podcast where you just power through, it's fairly tedious – which I don't mind, again this is a paid feature – but again, the end result, if I'm being honest, just isn't as good as the AI version. I did a lot of tests on this. It wasn't even close. Again, I know that some people won't like this approach philosophically, especially right now because AI is such a hot-button issue. But I don't think this should be controversial, I'm opting in with my own voice. Am I worried that there will be an army of robot M.G. Sieglers in the future walking around talking your ear off in my voice? I mean, that would be sort of fun. As long as they weren't murderous. Honestly, the technology is fairly incredible (and as such, not exactly cheap at the moment). It's not perfect, of course, but it's actually more perfect than what I was able to achieve the old fashioned way, talking into a mic like an animal. Shout out to my friend Casey Newton who had the courage to [journey down this controversial path](https://www.platformer.news/platformer-voice-clone-elevenlabs/?ref=spyglass.org) first. After he launched an audio version of [*Platformer*](https://www.platformer.news/?ref=spyglass.org), it immediately became the way I prefer to consume his content. It's good and fun/nice to hear it in Casey's voice. Even if it's RoboCasey. Anyway, I'll embed the first such recording below so everyone can get a taste of what it sounds like. And if you're interested, [**you can join The Inner Ring here**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/). And if you're not, well, you don't have to listen! Typed words will remain the primary interface around these parts. Thank you, as always, for reading – and now perhaps listening. 👇 ****Instructions to access for Spyglass Aloud feed** Once you sign up for The Inner Ring, be on the look out for a welcome email which will show you how to get access to your podcast feed. But I've also published the guide on [the About page](https://spyglass.org/about/), and I'll put it below for good measure... Paid members will see the following new 'Podcasts' area on [your account page](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/account), with a note to 'Access your private podcast feed'. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/1a.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/2a-1.png) Clicking on 'View' will take you to a *Spyglass* landing page hosted on Transistor where the feed is housed. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/3a.png) Clicking on 'Spyglass Aloud' here will take you to a page where you can easily subscribe via your podcast player of choice, and also sign up for email alerts when new episodes are published if you want (if you subscribe via a podcast player, they'll automatically appear, of course). This all works on mobile and desktop. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/04/4a.png) ### Go Blue 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/dossier-001-go-blue/ Last updated: 2026-04-10T13:24:29.000Z Happy Easter Monday. Hopefully everyone is rooting for Michigan tonight in [the NCAA Championship Game](https://www.espn.co.uk/mens-college-basketball/game/%5F/gameId/401856600/uconn-michigan?ref=spyglass.org). #GoBlue ****Spyglass Dossier** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### I Note... **🦸🏻‍♂️** [**OpenAI's "Super App"**](https://sources.news/p/openai-super-app-plan-codex?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) – An interesting side note of this strategy: it shifts us back from a mobile-first and focused world, to a desktop-centric one. That's not surprising given the coding focus of Codex (and Claude Code), but it's decidedly not where the masses are these days, and ChatGPT is at such a scale – 1B actives any day now – that mobile will presumably always end up as the most-used surface for them (even [if/when](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) their [own devices hit](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/)). The strategy – get Codex in front of non-engineers through ChatGPT and morph it into a general purpose agent – isn't a bad one, but [there are real risks](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) in execution. And given that OpenAI is full-on chasing Anthropic here, what might *they* be focusing on – shoring up Claude Code/Cowork or something new? **\[**[**Sources**](https://sources.news/p/openai-super-app-plan-codex?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) **🔒\]** **🔀** [**OpenAI Shuffles Leadership**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-03/openai-coo-shifts-out-of-role-agi-ceo-taking-medical-leave?ref=spyglass.org) – Holy Good Friday news dump. COO shifting to "special projects". CMO stepping down (to focus on health). CEO (of AGI Development) taking a leave of absence (to focus on health). This all comes on the heels of [the $122B fundraise](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/openais-122b-round?ref=spyglass.org), a questionable [M&A deal](https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/), and a mandate to kill off "side quests" [and focus](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) on the task at hand: taking on Anthropic. The latter two were spearheaded by aforementioned CEO of AGI (now on leave) Fidji Simo. Clearly they waited to announce all of this until the Friday before Easter. Will Simo come back as COO (since [it seemed like](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) that's what she essentially was anyway?). The company is saying no (that they won't appoint a new COO). Hard to give up a CEO title, I guess – [even a secondary one](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/). Never a dull moment at OpenAI. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-03/openai-coo-shifts-out-of-role-agi-ceo-taking-medical-leave?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📺** [**YouTube Leans Back**](https://www.theverge.com/column/905787/youtube-stations?ref=spyglass.org) – While "Stations" are essentially YouTube's answer to [FAST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free%5Fad-supported%5Fstreaming%5Ftelevision?ref=spyglass.org) channels elsewhere, it has nothing to do with price – since, of course, YouTube is already free (though you definitely should consider YouTube Premium to remove the insane amount of ads if you watch a lot of YouTube). It's all about the *experience* of just being able to put something on and not worry about it. Yes, like old school TV or cable. Not having to select something else when it ends. Just putting something on in the background and letting it wash over you. Endlessly. For hours. Sometimes, people simply like not feeling alone in their homes. I feel like I've been [writing about this notion](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-television/) for a decade. [Because I have](https://500ish.com/zoning-out-in-the-age-of-netflix-426b6842ad40?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/column/905787/youtube-stations?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "This is horrific. I knew this kind of bullshit would happen eventually, but I didn't expect it so soon." – **Zach Manson**, a software developer [who noted](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/microsofts-ai-slop-is-infecting-github-copilot-is-now-injecting-ads-into-pull-requests?ref=spyglass.org) that Microsoft had injected an ad into his GitHub pull request. What was the ad for? Copilot, [of course](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/). Microsoft quickly removed the "feature" after the backlash. [Better than Apple in that regard](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/), I guess... --- ### I Wrote... [A Conversion to AppleHow a PC kid became an Apple fanatic over the course of the company’s 50 years…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1240.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-5--2026--12_08_25-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-conversion-to-apple/) --- ### Asides... - The story of **Steven Levy's** night with **John Perry Barlow** in 1994 would itself be a wild (and sad) read, but add **JFK Jr.** into the mix... **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/jfk-jr-john-perry-barlow-friendship-love-story/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Making banks sign enterprise deals for **Grok** in order to get a taste of the **SpaceX IPO** is quite the new **BD** tactic! **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/business/spacex-ipo-grok-elon-musk.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Ideally, they'd be **advertising** on **Xitter** too! (Of course, embarrassing levels of ingratiation is nothing new in such things...) - **Surf**, the new federated social [service](https://surf.social/?ref=spyglass.org) from team **Flipboard**, which I wrote about [here](https://spyglass.org/surf-fediverse-app/) is (finally) live. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/905929/flipboard-surf-fediverse-launch?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Burying news on a Friday, even before Easter, is one thing, doing so *on your 50th anniversary* is another. Oh look, **Jay Blahnik** is retiring from **Apple**. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/apples-fitness-chief-who-was-accused-of-harassment-is-retiring.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - In what was undoubtedly the greatest feat of space-based engineering since Apollo 13, **NASA** fixed the **Microsoft Outlook** [issue](https://x.com/SpaceKoala/status/2039874363185660043?ref=spyglass.org) aboard **Artemis II**. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/science/906988/nasa-artemis-ii-microsoft-outlook-issue-fixed?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I'm not sure if it's more wild that Apple hasn't **updated** the **Apple TV** box in *4 years*, or that it still feels significantly faster than the latest TV boxes from Google or Amazon (the latter in particular is awful). **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/01/apple-tv-4k-might-break-a-record-no-one-wants-to-see-happen/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Also wild that **updated hardware** has [seemingly just been sitting around](https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/) for a while, waiting on **Siri**. [We all feel you](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/), Apple TV. - The **rising price of oil** (and thus, gas) may be reversing the downward slide of **EV sales**. Funny that. Maybe, [just maybe](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/apples-half-trillion-dollar-deal?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Honda%20just%20posted%20their%20first%20annual%20loss%20since%E2%80%A6%201957!%20As%20a%20result%2C%20they%E2%80%99re%20the%20latest%20to%20pull%20back%20from%20EVs%2C%20which%20seems%20like%20also%20poor%20timing%20given%20the%20situation%20in%20the%20Mid%20East%E2%80%A6%20%5BNYT%5D), the car makers shouldn't have abandoned their electric plans so quickly? **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/business/tesla-sales-electric-vehicles.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Not to worry everyone, **Disney** and **OpenAI** are *totally* still friends post-**Sora** [debacle](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/). **Josh D'Amaro** [*totally* got](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJSnn0GZmls&ref=spyglass.org) being completely blindsided his first week on the job. *Totally* cool. *Totally*. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/openai-still-talking-disney-sora-shutdown-1236554471/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Look, [it was just](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) **a billion dollar deal**. *Totally* get it. - You know who is not pulling out of AI video? **Google**. Here's **Veo 3.1 Lite**. [Totally great for Disney](https://variety.com/2025/digital/news/disney-google-ai-copyright-infringement-cease-and-desist-letter-1236606429/?ref=spyglass.org). Not awkward at all. And I'm sure this won't come back to totally bite OpenAI in the ass... **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/03/31/veo-3-1-lite/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - ***The Rings of Power***, which I do [enjoy](https://spyglass.org/return-of-the-rings/) but is very [hit](https://spyglass.org/tom-bombadil/)\-or-[miss](https://spyglass.org/emo-sauron/), seems to have a protector from above: the almighty **Jeff Bezos**. He has decreed: despite the costs, there shall be five seasons. Well, maybe four. **\[**[**IGN**](https://www.ign.com/articles/thats-still-under-bezos-magical-halo-the-lord-of-the-rings-the-rings-of-power-reportedly-remains-on-track-for-5-seasons-at-amazon-as-it-becomes-tvs-first-1-billion-series?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - On that topic, **Aragorn**, sadly, will be recast in Andy Serkis' **Gollum** [movie](https://spyglass.org/yes-precious/). So it will be only [a big *LotR* reunion](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/ai-sets-its-sights-on-email?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Frodo%20Lives!%20Well,Gandalf%20again%20next%E2%80%A6). Not a *full* one. **\[**[**ScreenRant**](https://screenrant.com/aragorn-recast-lord-of-the-rings-the-hunt-for-gollum-confirmed-andy-serkis/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's Internal IPO Tension** ****• OpenAI's Industrial Policy** ****• Cursor's Claude Code & Codex Competitor** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### A Conversion to Apple URL: https://spyglass.org/a-conversion-to-apple/ Last updated: 2026-07-25T07:42:45.000Z Apple crossed the five decade mark this past week. I saved so many retrospectives to read this weekend, but first I wanted to jot down some of my own thoughts. Since it was clearly *finally* okay for Apple itself to look back, I figured I would too. [I've previously written about](https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/20/os-x-lion-upgrade/?ref=spyglass.org) how I was a full-blown PC kid growing up. People seem to find this funny since when I was a tech reporter, I in no small way made a name for myself covering Apple. My inbox and the comment sections of *TechCrunch* and *VentureBeat* from about 2005 to 2011 were constantly clogged by the term "fanboy". Which truly [never bothered me](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). I *was* a fan! Anyway, the backstory is a bit more nuanced. While the first computer our family owned was [an IBM PS/2 Model 55 SX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM%5FPS/2%5FModel%5F55%5FSX?ref=spyglass.org) (eat your heart out with that branding, Microsoft), the first computer I actually used was at school. My elementary school in Ohio, like most schools back then, was filled with Apple machines. Specifically, the Apple IIe, the third iteration of the Apple II (after the original and the Apple II Plus). That was the first computer I actually used in my life. Throughout school, the computer labs slowly sprinkled some Macs into the mix as well. And while I always appreciated the UI – the trash can in particular – I was a full-blown Windows aficionado at that point. The Mac just felt foreign to me. By that point, we were well into the 1990s and Apple had started struggling. Seemingly piecemeal variants of the Mac started showing up in our computer labs. And some Mac clones – the horror – started showing up in the computer stores I would frequent. At the same time, Microsoft stepped on the gas. As a teenager, I lined up at midnight for the launch of two things: Pearl Jam albums and Windows 95. Apple receded further into my computing background. One of my friends was a Mac loyalist – and we constantly made fun of him for it.[1](#one) The cool kids had Gateway 2000 PCs shipped in their big ass cow print boxes. Or, at the very least, you were getting a Dell, [dude](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXGO6QSC5Fg&ref=spyglass.org). Specs were king in the age of Pentium. Much like today, RAM reigned supreme. Apple seemed lost. [And then...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xio-Qa5gOM&ref=spyglass.org) the Mac crept back into the computer stores of the world. Rumor grew of a new operating system being worked on in the west. Whispers of a new UI. And Steve Jobs perceived. Apple's time had now come. Still, I went off to college with a new Gateway tower PC and 44-pound, 19-inch monitor ([yes, seriously](https://500ish.com/44-lbs-de7852628df0?ref=spyglass.org)). Paired with the rocket-fast ethernet connection in the dorm rooms, I was in computing heaven. This was also, I should point out, the heyday of Napster, LimeWire, and every other P2P file-sharing variant. One day during freshman year I recall seeing some banners around campus to come check out the latest wares from Apple. Out of curiosity and boredom, I swung by a computer lab dotted with new iMacs, where some Apple reps were showing off early builds of OS X. It looked amazing – on the surface, not too dissimilar from how it looks today, 25+ years later – but also seemed fairly slow and buggy. I took a "Flower Power" iMac banner – yes, the *banner*, not the Mac – home with me. While I didn't go to the midnight launch of Windows XP in 2001, I did buy it on day one. And Best Buy had a launch day deal where you got a free MP3 player with the purchase. It was [the Intel Personal Audio Player 3000](https://www.ign.com/articles/2001/10/05/intel-personal-audio-player-3000-preview?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, my first MP3 player was not an iPod, but rather was made by Intel. Yes, Intel! Amazingly, this was just *two days* after that original iPod was [announced on stage by Steve Jobs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kN0SVBCJqLs&ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) I remember thinking it was strange that Apple was making such a big bet on a music player. It was not strange. Like so many, that ended up being my entry point into the Apple ecosystem. The year was now 2004 and I had just graduated from college. I would be driving all the way across the country by myself. The nearly 2,400 mile, 10-state journey would take about 35 hours spread over a few days. [I needed something](https://500ish.com/the-ipod-shuffles-into-the-sunset-af82376fa864?ref=spyglass.org) [to kill the time](https://500ish.com/the-first-truly-personal-computer-33ce4d147aad?ref=spyglass.org). Like, say, a thousand songs in my pocket. Technically, by then, it was far more than 1,000, more like 10,000, as I bought the 40GB fourth-generation iPod for $399\. And technically those songs weren't in my pocket, but attached to some crappy third-party FM transmitter which required a station change every few hundred miles due to radio interference. But my god was that device glorious. It stored every song I owned![3](#three) It made my old Intel MP3 player – with 64MB of memory – seem like a piece of junk. If those OS X demos laid the soil, the iPod planted the Apple seed. I made it to California in no small part thanks to that iPod. And by the time I started working doing various jobs in Hollywood, it was all Apple, all the time. While the Dell laptop that made the journey with me was far faster, I was slowly learning about Apple software that simply wasn't available on a PC. It wasn't one thing, it was a million little touches that only became clear upon using these Apple products regularly: there was care put into the process. These devices were thoughtfully designed. A joy to use. They were everything a PC was not. Before too long, I broke down, despite being basically broke, and bought an iBook. No, not one of the fun candy-colored variety – I was a bit too late for those. Instead, I had a pristine, all-white iBook G4\. It was tiny – 12.1" screen, just under 5 lbs – and beautiful. My Dell started to gather dust. That was the last PC I ever owned. The iBook led to an iMac. And that led to a few dozen other Macs over the years, [the most recent being](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) the new MacBook Neo, on which I type this right now. It seems wild to think now that the iPhone launched only a few years after I bought my first iPod. Perhaps because I was still so new to the Apple ecosystem, I also wasn't sold on the latest and greatest – despite [Jobs' masterful presentation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7qPAY9JqE4&ref=spyglass.org). Believe it or not, I was [basically in the Steve Ballmer camp](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h%5FY5%5FU&ref=spyglass.org); $500? For a phone?! Then I happened to find myself in an Apple Store on launch day in June 2007\. I've never so quickly gone from thinking I would not buy something to buying it. Simply holding it for a few seconds was enough. This sounds hyperbolic or ridiculous. But it really was almost like an out-of-body experience. I just knew I was holding the future. From time to time I'll pick up my iPhone – I've now bought one every single year since 2007, which seems like a problem, but I justify it with the notion that it's the most important device I own and use it far more than anything else, so always having the fastest version seems like a no-brainer – and I still feel this way. I still remember the hours spent every night on my PC waiting for things to load. And the hours spent trying to connect to the internet via dial-up modems. And the internet before there was even the world wide web. This context still makes the iPhone seem like magic. It's [hard to imagine](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) it will ever stop feeling that way. From that Apple IIe in elementary school to now, that's roughly 40 years of Apple usage out of Apple's 50\. But it has been heavily back-weighted, with really the past 20 years being all-Apple, all the time. I undoubtedly [give Apple more grief these days](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple/), which I view as both warranted and an accurate reading of the broader room as they've grown into what has been the largest and arguably most powerful company in the world for much of the past decade. But I still absolutely love the products. Yes, even the Vision Pro, [which I believe Apple erred in releasing when they did](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/). But I was actually using it last night for the first time in a few weeks, and they continue to refine it both software-wise and content-wise, to the point where it actually is [getting more impressive with age](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/). Granted, I still wouldn't recommend anyone spend *$3,499* on it right now. But [you no longer have to squint](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) to see a world in which a far more svelte variety (in both price [and size](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/)) is in the future cards. My only real concern now for the company is that Apple could get lapped if they don't fully [control their own AI destiny](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/). I think [the Gemini partnership](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) is a good ([and necessary](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/)) step. But it probably needs to be a stopgap and bridge to buy them time to get to where they need to be internally. I believe they understand that, but I also believe no one yet fully knows how this will all play out. And it's probably the biggest risk for those next fifty years as the robots take over the world and whatnot. For now, Apple remains [positioned well](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). With the iPhone as the overall most-used device (that will continue to evolve [into the central computing hub](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) as [new devices come](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/)), and the iPad as the main computer for many people, and with the Mac as the core machine for "real work" for an incredibly still growing number of people. Happy 50th, Apple. --- 1 Though that same friend did get [a Power Mac G4 Cube](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power%5FMac%5FG4%5FCube?ref=spyglass.org) at one point, which we all agreed *looked* amazing. That CD slot! But we also agreed it was the most beautiful paperweight ever created. [↩](#) 2 And yes, this was all just a few weeks after the attacks of September 11, 2001\. [↩](#) 3 We'll use "owned" loosely here. See also: the aforementioned Napster days... [↩](#) ### OpenAI's Soft Power Play URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-tbpn-soft-power/ Last updated: 2026-07-25T07:42:25.000Z "The ability to influence the behaviour of others and obtain desired outcomes through attraction and co-option." I like the framing of the term "Soft Power" by [The British Academy](https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/projects/soft-power/?ref=spyglass.org), for my purposes here.[1](#one) I think it serves as a succinct explanation for OpenAI's maneuver in [acquiring](https://www.wsj.com/cmo-today/openai-buys-tech-industry-talk-show-tbpn-484c01c5?ref=spyglass.org) TBPN.[2](#two) Yes, the company which just made a big to-do about [killing off "side quests"](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) and focusing – including, most notably, [killing off their video product Sora](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) – immediately followed that up by buying a video podcast. And yes, they announced it the day after April Fools. And no, it was not a joke. And yes, everyone made that joke. I too had to dish out [my initial snark](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2039760750210642257?ref=spyglass.org) upon hearing the news. Which was surprising to the point that it's the most I've been messaged by people with varying levels of "WTF?" in recent months. But actually, thinking more about it, and reading over some of the reports and statements, I think it makes some level of sense. I'm not sure it will work the way OpenAI hopes. But it's not the worst idea to try. First and foremost, OpenAI's CEO of... something,[3](#three) Fidji Simo actually lays it out pretty plainly [in her remarks on the matter](https://openai.com/index/openai-acquires-tbpn/?ref=spyglass.org): > As I've been thinking about the future of how we communicate at OpenAI, one thing that's become clear is that the standard communications playbook just doesn't apply to us. We're not a typical company. We're driving a really big technological shift. And with the mission of bringing AGI to the world comes a responsibility to help create a space for a real, constructive conversation about the changes AI creates—with builders and people using the technology at the center. That pretty much says it all right there. OpenAI clearly does not like the way [the current narrative](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) around AI is being framed. And they undoubtedly see the trend where it's shifting even more negative as time goes on, [certainly in the US](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/). I might argue, [as I have](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/), that a lot of this has to do with the actual messengers and messaging around the technology coming out of the AI labs and companies. But that's a [hard thing to change](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/). Steve Jobs, sadly, is not walking through that door. So instead, you take a page from the Don Draper playbook and ["change the conversation"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su56rdSvQBU&ref=spyglass.org). Draper's method to do that would be through advertising. And well, OpenAI has been trying that. It doesn't seem to be working. Another way? Own a media company. > That’s exactly what TBPN has built. So rather than trying to recreate that ourselves, it made a lot of sense to bring them in, support what they’re doing, and help them scale—while keeping what makes them special. A core part of this is editorial independence. TBPN will continue to run their programming, choose their guests, and make their own editorial decisions. That’s foundational to their credibility, and it’s something we’re explicitly protecting as part of this agreement. Again, Simo says it right there. Clearly, OpenAI was thinking about building up their own media entity in-house. But while a lot of companies have tried this to varying degrees of success in the era of ["going direct"](https://spyglass.org/going-direct-bullshit/), Simo clearly thought it made sense to buy versus build here.[4](#four) It's an expensive buy – "low hundreds of millions," [reports George Hammond of *The Financial Times*](https://www.ft.com/content/4fe4972a-3d24-45be-b9fa-a429c432b08e?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org) – certainly when you're going to *throw out* the actual business (which seemed to be working quite well for them, which is why OpenAI had to pay such a premium). But it's all relative for a company that just raised um, [$122B](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/192991624/openais-122b-round?ref=spyglass.org). But the other important distinction here is that OpenAI is saying they're going to leave the TBPN guys alone to do their thing as they have been with the show. Famous last words and all that, but I do believe that's the intention here because again, to me this is about soft power. That is, this isn't about acquiring TBPN to turn it into a propaganda arm of OpenAI. That would be dumb because obviously that would backfire. Instead, Simo realized that TBPN already had alignment in their mandate to cover the tech world, and AI more specifically, more positively than many other outlets are doing at the moment.[5](#five) Spreading such gospel will help OpenAI's own interests quite naturally. Now, there's a very real and fair question of what happens if that mandate changes. What if, say, AI starts to lead to some outcomes which are actually bad in very tangible ways for society (yes, [some will say this is already happening](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/), but I mean indisputable here for the sake of the argument)? Presumably, TBPN's independence would allow them to change their coverage and tone to meet the moment. Obviously, OpenAI – nor TBPN – thinks that will happen. And if it did, OpenAI would probably just cut the show loose. But that sort of points to what's left unsaid here. That while TBPN may stay the same on paper, in practice, the way others interact with it will change. Is, say, Dario Amodei going to come on the show? Probably not! But that's a bit unfair since he wasn't a guest before the deal. A more interesting one is Mark Zuckerberg, who *has* been on the show. Will he be back? Probably not any time soon. Other rivals will be in similar camps. Some may suck it up and go on to reach the audience. And if TBPN can indeed keep growing, fueled by OpenAI's resources, perhaps it will force the hand of Zuck and others to keep playing ball. That's undoubtedly the hope of both the TBPN team and OpenAI here. They have to know that pledge of independence or not, this deal changes those dynamics of the show. They just think they can overcome them. We'll see. And that ties into the other potential issue here. While TBPN has built up an impressive audience in a relatively short amount of time, the reported 70k regular viewers per episode is obviously tiny compared to any number of other media outlets, let alone endless other shows on YouTube. If TBPN doesn't keep growing, the soft power playbook loses its effectiveness, fast. Prior to this deal, the TBPN founders have been on the record noting that they didn't need to scale the show to reach a mainstream audience. That they were happy playing in their niche. Which made a lot of sense, it was a good niche that they were monetizing well, clearly! And not raising VC money gave them the optionality of staying in that niche. It was big enough. This deal changes that equation. They no longer have to monetize, but for the soft power to work, they need to expand their reach. Otherwise they're just talking to the base over and over again. That works for Fox News, but that's a far different scale. And while there's clearly soft power at play there, it's also still a business. This is just a soft power play. But for that to work, you need *actual* power. OpenAI is going to need to boost TBPN into something much larger than it is, otherwise, what's the point here? Again, TBPN was already doing what they're doing without the acquisition. Maybe branching into adjacencies helps them escape the echo chamber effect – they mention events as one area of continued interest – but this is all very TBD for TPBN. All that said, I still think this is an interesting tactic to try. As Simo notes, and as we're all well aware, [OpenAI is not a normal company](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). The implication is that normal strategies won't work for them – or at least work as well. Clearly, the narrative has kept shifting away from them. Part of that is the macro view of AI (again, certainly in the US), but part of it is also [their own self-owns](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-fidji-simo-bought-tbpn-podcast-amid-crusade-side-quests?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). TBPN will try to help with the former, while founders Jordi Hays and John Coogan will work in-house in their apparent spare time to help with the latter. Will it work? We'll all get to watch in real-time! I'll just end by quoting Don Draper earlier in the same conversation: > "Your concern over public opinion shows a guilty conscience. But what good is that serving you if what is to be done is already underway?" 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI’s OdysseyCan they get down to business while maintaining ChatGPT’s lead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1238.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4512f360-b5f4-425a-be59-71cd20bc3d5f_3840x2208-1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1234.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) [AI’s Perception ProblemsA chat about AI needing their Steve Jobs figure, AI’s chaotic companies, and some other predictions for 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1235.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--10_38_21-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1237.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [“Not a Normal Company”But OpenAI may finally be making moves towards becoming one…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1239.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2025--08_01_14-PM-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) --- 1 The term, of course, was popularized by American political scientist [Joseph Nye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph%5FNye?ref=spyglass.org) (who also happened to be a British Academy Fellow), in his 1990 book, *Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power*. Nye passed away just a year ago. [↩](#) 2 Yes, while "TB" technically [started](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jacoogan%5Fcontrary-to-popular-belief-the-tb-in-tbpn-activity-7440154788782284800-5Yo7/?ref=spyglass.org) as "Technology Brothers" – in an ironic sense – "Technology Business Podcast Network" has a decidedly more professional and ESPN ring to it... [↩](#) 3 Technically now "CEO, AGI Deployment" but it's a title that [keeps shifting like Ace Rothstein's in *Casino*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqRfKZzwgn4&ref=spyglass.org). But it's not CEO [of the entire company](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/), at least [not yet](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/163162284/openai-expands-leadership-with-fidji-simo?ref=spyglass.org) ;) [↩](#) 4 [A lesson from her Meta days](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/)? [↩](#) 5 Which throws me back to my days, many moons ago, at *TechCrunch*, where we were constantly levied with such a charge, but instead made it a strength. It was... a very different time, of course. And I swear this is the last time [I'll point out](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,%F0%9F%93%BA%20TBPN%27s%20Rise,-%E2%80%93%20Fun%20profile%20of) that what we were trying to do with [*OMG/JK*](https://techcrunch.com/collection/omg-jk/?ref=spyglass.org) wasn't entirely different than TBPN (just more *Pardon the Interruption* style). [↩](#) ### The NFL Will Bleed Cable Dry Before Tech Takes Over TV URL: https://spyglass.org/nfl-netflix-amazon-apple-espn-youtube/ Last updated: 2026-07-20T16:25:23.000Z When it comes to television, there is only really one show that truly matters: the NFL. Programs that win awards and have robust viewership are nice. But they're icing on the cake. The NFL is the cake. Everyone already knows this stat, but it's no less incredible: of the top 20 most-watched programs last year, either [18](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/most-watched-shows-2025-tracker-super-bowl-dwts-oscars-1236615376/?ref=spyglass.org), [19](https://www.sportico.com/business/media/2026/sportico-top-100-nfl-towers-over-us-media-landscape-1234880235/?ref=spyglass.org), or all [20](https://barrettmedia.com/2025/12/31/sports-owns-96-of-the-top-100-most-watched-television-programs-in-2025/?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Overall%2C%202025%20underscores%20the%20continuing,news%2C%20and%20sports%20media%20industries.) were NFL games (there's some discrepancy in various ratings). Which is to say that the NFL has an insanely strong hand when it comes to rights negotiations. Either you have an NFL package or you're simply not a player. It's undoubtedly part of the reason why Warner Bros Discovery had to sell. Yes, they [were silly](https://spyglass.org/ill-sue-you-to-show-i-love-you/) in [fumbling](https://spyglass.org/nba-amazon-tnt/) their [NBA rights](https://spyglass.org/charles-barkley-tnt-nba-streaming/), but it's the lack of NFL rights that kills them – or, specifically, keeps their networks shrinking. Their buyer, Paramount Skydance, of course, owns CBS. And CBS owns an NFL package. It's [their most important asset](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190122597/paramount-plus-hbo-max?ref=spyglass.org). They can leverage it. And [boy are they](https://spyglass.org/netflix-calls-paramount-wbd-bluff/)! And actually, because of the earlier deal which saw Skydance take over Paramount, a change-of-ownership clause was triggered that allows the NFL to renegotiate that package even though the deal isn't up yet. And that, in turn, is going to lead to every other NFL rights holder renegotiating their rights. They technically don't have to, but what are they gonna do, tell the NFL no? Good luck on that *next* rights negotiation in a few years... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The 70 Year Old iPhone URL: https://spyglass.org/the-70-year-old-iphone/ Last updated: 2026-07-20T16:24:56.000Z [Apple Still Plans to Sell iPhones When It Turns 100As the tech giant turns 50, WIRED spoke to executives about how they plan to win in the AI era.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-42.ico)WIREDSteven Levy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Backchannel-Future-of-Apple-Business-1005306778..jpg)](https://www.wired.com/story/apple-50-year-anniversary-artificial-intelligence-iphone/?ref=spyglass.org) Smart angle by my friend Steven Levy to not ask Apple about the *past* on the verge of their 50th anniversary – which [Levy was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven%5FLevy?ref=spyglass.org) right in the [center of covering](https://spyglass.org/aboard-the-pirate-ship/) for nearly [the entire run](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/), of course – but about the *future*. And fitting that Apple dispatched John Ternus – [he who would be king](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) – rather [than Tim Cook](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) to talk (though Levy also managed to get a comment from Cook at an event, and Apple's longest serving executive, Greg Joswiak – 40 years! – was there too). When Levy brought up the notion of Apple being behind in AI: > These gentlemen disagree. Apple, they insist, is already at the forefront of the AI revolution. “We were doing AI before we called it AI!” says Joswiak. “Every single great chatbot works great on our products.” Ternus argues that even if Apple didn't take the lead in developing AI technology, it would still benefit. “Our products are the best place people will use the existing AI tools.” It's not quite [as gaslight-y as the interview that Joswiak and Craig Federighi gave](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) after last year's WWDC when asked about [the *clear* downplaying of AI](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) at the event (after touting it the year before and well, [you know](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)...), but I just wish they would frame this decidedly less defensively. Something like... "look, we view it as still the very early days of AI, and while we've been working on it for a while, and there have been some fits and starts, no one yet knows exactly how it's going to play out, so we're trying to take a pragmatic approach in our build out and ensure that our devices and platforms are the best place on which to build for that future." Ternus is much [closer](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) in that regard, which is great to see, if he is indeed [the next CEO of Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/). After Levy pushes back on their answers, wondering how they can ensure that Apple is the company making [the devices of the future](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) if they're not building the cutting edge of AI themselves: > “I would assume you want one of them to be an Apple device, right?” I asked. > > The answer seemed to be *not necessarily.* “Let’s not lose sight of the fact that nothing you just said is incompatible with the iPhone,” Joswiak says. “The iPhone is not going to go away. iPhone is going to serve a very central role in any of those things you’re talking about.” In the short term, no doubt. Even in the medium term, sure. But Levy reminds him of the framing he's asking about: > Wait—Apple thinks that people will be using the iPhone *50 years from now*? > > “It's hard to imagine not,” says Joswiak. “That's where everybody else struggles. They don't have an iPhone, and so they’re scrambling for what to do. A lot of what they talk about ends up being accessories for an iPhone. We’re not going to get into future road maps, but I will tell you, iPhones are not going anywhere.” (Despite this bravado, I will be shocked if Apple does not come out with some AI-powered gadget in the coming years.) 50 years from now will be 2076\. While it some ways it does feel like technological breakthroughs are happening slower than 50 years ago on the consumer tech end, in other ways, things are moving far *faster* – including, of course, AI! Beyond Apple's founding, 1976 was about color TVs, early video games, and microwaves. Big, chunky tech starting in the home that would be refined and miniaturized as things moved digital. It's probably reasonable to think we'll have something akin to an iPhone 50 years from now, [but the form factor will be far different](https://spyglass.org/inventing-the-future-vs-extrapolating-it/). Perhaps something you wear, or a tiny piece of tech that still lives in your pocket, but unfolds into ([or syncs with](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/)) something more robust depending on the use case. Will that still be an 'iPhone'? That's harder to see. It would be wild if the same branding exists by then – the concept of a "phone" is already a bit silly. But again, some sort of [main computing hub](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) still may be around... That could, of course, be [our robots](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/) back [in our](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) homes [running computing workflows agenticly](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/) for us and pinging us as needed... > Later in the day I have my greeting with Cook, and immediately ask him about Apple’s next 50 years. He launches into a rhapsodic description of Apple’s people, values, and culture, predicting that no matter what twists lie ahead, those factors will continue to make Apple unique and super successful. “Yes, the technologies of the future will change,” Cook says. “Yes, there will be more products and more categories. All of those things are true, but the things that made Apple. *Apple* will be the same for the next 50 years, and the next 100 and the next 1,000.” It's a nice sentiment, but a bit silly. While companies like Nokia, Siemens, and GE are all over 100 years old, they all started life quite differently, of course – Nokia [famously as a paper mill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia?ref=spyglass.org)! More "pure" tech still around today is probably IBM, which is 125 years old. Given that tech is now central to pretty much everything in modern life, it's certainly reasonable to think some of the current companies will be around in 100 years – 2126 – but undoubtedly most will not. That's just the reality of business. Things go boom and bust – or they get merged out of existence. A thousand years? 3026\. I would make a joke about hoping the world exists by then, but that's too morbid and depressing. So instead I'll make a joke about [hoping](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) that Apple has [fixed Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) by then to run well on the iPhone 1018 Pro. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1224.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) [Apple’s Flight to SafetyA refocusing on design and hardware might be a good sign…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1226.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_The_Apple_logo_surrounded_by_beautiful_design_flourish__054afdb5-c6ea-488c-a7e0-995ca28aa3b7_0-2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) [Inventing the Future vs. Extrapolating ItWe predict obvious and silly things, but look right past the big ones…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1225.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-08-at-7.32.27-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/inventing-the-future-vs-extrapolating-it/) ### Big Techbacco URL: https://spyglass.org/big-techbacco/ Last updated: 2026-07-14T11:56:09.000Z It's not about the money, it's about the message. With the news that Meta and YouTube were[ being held liable](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/technology/social-media-trial-verdict.html?ref=spyglass.org) in a case about the harms of their addictive features *just two days* after Meta was [found liable](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/jury-orders-meta-pay-375-mln-new-mexico-lawsuit-over-child-sexual-exploitation-2026-03-24/?ref=spyglass.org) in a *separate* case around child safeguards, the writing isn't so much as on the wall as it's on the docket. Big Tech is facing a reckoning. I would say it's about "social media", but well, YouTube isn't really social media.[1](#one) And actually I think you can tie this into other tangential topics around the broader tech industry at the moment. Most prominently, [the simmering backlash against AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) as well. Meta may be the poster child, but again, it feels like the entire Big Tech family is going to get wrapped up in this. Regardless of the merits of the individual cases, the real read of the (court)room is the macro one. This isn't a moment, it's a movement. And it's spreading. In part because lawmakers have failed to act, and the companies themselves have failed to adequately self-police, now the people are [taking matters into their own hands](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/technology/social-media-verdicts-child-safety.html?ref=spyglass.org). Those citizens seem sick of everyone glued to their devices at all times. Yes, children especially, but I suspect this distaste runs far deeper. [Including within Silicon Valley itself](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/)! Add this animosity to the growing anxiety around AI from these very same companies coming to [potentially upend livelihoods](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) and... kaboom. Nearly every story about this latest verdict [draws the comparison to the "Big Tobacco"](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/business/dealbook/meta-youtube-social-media-tobacco.html?ref=spyglass.org) cases from 30 years ago. It doesn't matter what the parallels are, all that matters is that every story is drawing them. This is an absolute optics disaster for Big Tech. And it feels like it's just getting started. Again, Meta is low-hanging fruit. YouTube perhaps thought they could get away here because again, they're not actually social media. But they cannot. And while TikTok and Snap opted to settle rather than risk this verdict, they're not going to get away from every case. You have to wonder if and when Apple gets roped in as well since they largely control the devices which enables these services. Google will get hit here as well. Perhaps even Microsoft if the contagion spreads to PCs. [When the AI backlash](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) starts in full, certainly OpenAI and Anthropic will be right in the crosshairs. And maybe NVIDIA gets pulled in as well for [enabling all of this](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/). Probably even SpaceX, [now that](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) they own [Xitter and xAI](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/), which are already in the midst of their own various shitshows due to deep fakes and other sketchy content. And once Tesla and SpaceX [inevitably merge](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/186324177/spacex-xai-or-maybe-tesla?ref=spyglass.org), we'll have basically all the largest companies in the world wrapped up in these cases. Maybe there's a way to bring Amazon in too thanks to AWS. Or maybe it's Alexa, which seems to want to [get more racy](https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/12/alexa-gets-a-new-adults-only-personality-option-that-curses-but-wont-do-nsfw-content/?ref=spyglass.org) at the moment too. Have I mentioned that Oracle is [a primary owner](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/) of TikTok now?[2](#two) Yes, this remains [very strange](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/). In many ways, none of this is surprising. Again, merits of the cases aside, these are the largest companies in the world. I mean that both in terms of market cap and reach, but also in terms of numbers of people they employ. Yet every day now seems to bring a headline about mass layoffs while at the same time posting record profits. It has long been [a very weird "best of times/worst of times" dichotomy](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) and AI is accelerating it. People must look at the layoffs constantly happening at Meta and wonder what shot they possibly have to make it in this new world. And [as I've written about before with AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) in particular, all of these companies seemingly have some very real messenger issues. That is, the public by and large doesn't seem to like the people peddling the future here. And that's undoubtedly in part because they don't trust them from the immediate past when [they were peddling](https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/) social media and then VR and then crypto and then every other thing seemingly purpose-build, at least narratively, [to freak people out](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/) or [piss them off](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/). And so here we are, at the dawn of [yet another "techlash"](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/).[3](#three) But this one could be far larger because the fallout from yesterday is running right into the fears for tomorrow. I'm not saying this is right or wrong, I'm just saying it's happening. And it's happening in no small part because Big Tech is awful with their positioning and posture. Does Facebook cause cancer? No, but you'd never know it based on the backlash. Before long, it will be framed as being *worse* than cancer. Big Tech will be fined the equivalent of coins in their couch cushions over and over again and they'll shrug it off over and over again. Has Europe [taught us nothing](https://spyglass.org/tag/eu/)? No, because Europe has [learned](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-clown-town/) nothing. Honestly, their endless fines have probably helped teach Silicon Valley the *wrong* lessons, and to look past the real issues. After all, these are admired companies – in no small part because they're so successful! Which will be true until it is suddenly not. And what I think you can see here is the trend bubbling up that people increasingly don't want to like these companies. They're too big and too powerful. They're like the government. But one you can sue over and over again. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AI’s Perception ProblemsA chat about AI needing their Steve Jobs figure, AI’s chaotic companies, and some other predictions for 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1216.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--10_38_21-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) [“We’ve gone sideways.”Laurene Powell Jobs on OpenAI/IO’s iPhone antidote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1217.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/jljs-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) [AI Am Become DeathAs Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1218.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/oppenheimer-071723-2-b381da3f9c314ca7b2325ba2056c50c3-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1220.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) [Love It If We Made ItAI will disrupt work. We will adapt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1219.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_54_36-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) --- 1 Increasingly, it's just media. Yes, there are algorithms at play, but the same is true at any modern media company now. Which is why it was silly not to frame YouTube as a Netflix competitor in the would-have-been Warner Bros deal. Going forward, [YouTube is](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) the *main* [Netflix competitor](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/). Not some [other "streaming services"](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) which Netflix long ago [left in the dust](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). [↩](#) 2 And at the rate that Snap's stock keeps falling – now just a $6B company – someone is going to end up owning them too. [↩](#) 3 Strange how Meta/Facebook always seems to be [right at the center of these](https://500ish.com/f-ckedbook-d051939e6965?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) ### So Long, Sora URL: https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/ Last updated: 2026-07-17T16:21:39.000Z Well, I'd like to say it was fun while it lasted. But the reality is that it barely lasted. I speak, of course, of Sora. And specifically the productized version of OpenAI's video models which launched to much fanfare [just a few months ago](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) and quickly rocketed to the top of the App Store. [OpenAI brought the axe](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-set-to-discontinue-sora-video-platform-app-a82a9e4e?ref=spyglass.org) down so quickly that it [apparently](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-set-discontinue-sora-video-platform-app-wsj-reports-2026-03-24/?ref=spyglass.org) surprised both their key partner Disney and even the team internally working on Sora. Even [by OpenAI standards](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/), this seems pretty wild. Of course this also wasn't *totally* out of left field. A couple weeks ago, [a report](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-plans-launch-sora-video-ai-chatgpt-strategy-shift?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) suggested that Sora was over as a stand-alone app and service. [And that seemingly made sense](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/). After the aforementioned initial surge, Sora slowly slid down the download charts and usage seemed to be dwindling over time. As it turns out, much like [the Studio Ghibli situation](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) before it, it was a mere viral moment in time. OpenAI is [great at creating these](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/), but they're fleeting. That's a problem when you've built a whole service around one. Sora was the most fun I recalled having with a new app in a while, but [I also noted](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) that the key probably wasn't the TikTok-style network, but instead how it eased the *creation* process for video. I thought individual sharing of such videos was more interesting than pushing them out publicly because clearly most of the novelty was around the insertion of people you knew in the videos. [Celebrities inevitably](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) tried to tap into this, but it all felt a bit insincere at best, and cash-grabby at worst. So yes, it made sense to shift the focus from the app to bring such tools into ChatGPT itself. In particular as the service [tried to do more](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) social/collaborative things there – [bringing more chat into ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/), as it were. But a funny thing happened on the way to the roll-up: OpenAI clearly started to freak the fuck out about the traction Anthropic was suddenly seeing. That mixed with the building push to go public is undoubtedly a big part of what shifted a move to bundle Sora to a move to *murder* Sora. This is all related. Anthropic is also said to be making moves to go public. And because of their position in the market – in the enterprise market in particular – and [their path to profits looking much clearer](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/), this was always going to be [a problem for OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/). But the moment Claude Code – and tangentially, Claude Cowork – is having probably pushed it all over the edge. Last week came news that ["side quests" would no longer be a part of OpenAI's path](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/). And was there any bigger side quest than Sora? Again, you'd think they could just kill the app and stand-alone service, bringing it into ChatGPT itself – as seemed to be the plan – but the reality there remained just how expensive it was to actually create such videos. OpenAI probably ran then re-ran the numbers. There was just no way to justify it with a straight face if they were truly hoping to paint a path to profitability picture to Wall Street [any time soon](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/). Fine. No fun, but we get it. OpenAI has bigger GPUs to fry. But what's really wild is shafting Disney in the process. I mean, they're without question the most important entertainment and content company in the world. And OpenAI seemingly did them dirty. The fact that Disney is no longer looking to do the major investment which sure seemed like a good idea to them – checks notes – [*just three months ago*](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/), seems to say a lot.[1](#one) You have to imagine OpenAI would still welcome such an investment. They need any and all money! Even without Sora, you have to imagine there was a path to future partnerships here. But no. [Not the way OpenAI executed this](https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/openai-shutting-down-sora-video-disney-1236698277/?ref=spyglass.org). Ouch. And my god how incredibly awkward for Josh D'Amaro, just *one week* into his new role [as CEO of Disney](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/the-damaro-kingdom?ref=spyglass.org). While Bob Iger put his name [on this deal](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2036535238424219883?ref=spyglass.org) and subsequent PR around it, all indications were that D'Amaro was the one who really pushed for it. And it played up to technology prowess being a key point of his ascension [and plan](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/187098973/josh-damaro-gets-his-wish-upon-a-star?ref=spyglass.org). This plus the news that Fortnite maker (and [key Disney partner/investment](https://spyglass.org/disney-epic/)) Epic is doing [massive layoffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/fortnite-maker-epic-games-cuts-about-1-000-jobs-across-company?ref=spyglass.org) this week.. Again, [ouch](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2036553329837289645?s=20&ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, back to Sora. This sucks. Not because Sora was particularly useful – though I maintain it was good fun, even now opening it, I get sucked into a rabbit hole that I fill with laughter. I wasn't getting sucked in nearly enough for it to make sense stand-alone, but certainly [the technology was compelling](https://spyglass.org/sora-ai-video-generation/)! Which is why Google, [Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/), and others have been working on video models as well, obviously. It looked like OpenAI had played them with the Disney deal, until they realized that they played themselves. Was it an IP minefield? No doubt. Did it raise some very real ethical questions about raising the dead to have them do dumb shit in viral videos? [For sure](https://x.com/AdresanSoso/status/2014757504597516379?ref=spyglass.org). But it was also pretty fun. And very funny. And wonderfully simple to use. All this sucks because it points to a world in which OpenAI is definitely less product-focused going forward and much more about drilling down [on the business](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/). That's undoubtedly the right move for the company given everything going on, but that doesn't make it the right move for *me*, the end user. Goodnight, not-so-sweet [viral prince](https://x.com/sporadica/status/2036577092360609999?ref=spyglass.org). We hardly knew ye. I'm so Sora for our loss. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI’s OdysseyCan they get down to business while maintaining ChatGPT’s lead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1209.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4512f360-b5f4-425a-be59-71cd20bc3d5f_3840x2208-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/) [OpenAI is Busy Both Bundling and UnbundlingWith Sora coming to ChatGPT…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1210.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_36i4i636i4i636i4-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/) [OpenAI Strikes BackOpenAI’s deal with Disney deals a blow to Google…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1214.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_Darth_Vader_coming_into_a_negotiation_room_cartoon_1_989ead01-a95d-414d-bc72-b26deffbd8b4_2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) [Sora’s Slop Hits DifferentIt’s about creative comedy creation, stupid![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1211.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_ai_slop_content_--ar_169_--v_7_145f3cbb-2d2b-4461-b215-c60b89a53de4_1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1212.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1213.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) --- 1 Also, why do [weird things keep happening](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) around promised OpenAI investments?... [↩](#) ### Apple Realizes There Should Be An App For That URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-ai-app/ Last updated: 2026-07-14T11:55:23.000Z Look, let's try to be nice to Apple. They're [a little slow on this whole "AI" thing](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). After spending years and years downplaying the role of the technology, most notably with [several senior executives](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) reported to have [directly disparaged](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) the whole "chatbot" movement as a passing fad, they're now playing catch up. Including, naturally, racing to build [their own chatbot](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/). But those [initial reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/ios-27-apple-to-revamp-siri-as-built-in-iphone-mac-chatbot-to-fend-off-openai?ref=spyglass.org) about how they would implement their upgrades to Siri indicated that there wouldn't be a stand-alone app for the service – again, that was undoubtedly too chatbot-like for Apple's taste – and instead it would be a system-wide integration, just like the current Siri. You know, Apple's "AI" system which has [completely and utterly sucked](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) for the past [15 years running](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/). Granted, Apple would be upgrading the technology powering Siri – going so far as to [outsource the work largely to Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/), their Big Tech frenemy which was also caught flat-footed in the early days of the current Age of AI. But their miss wasn't due to a lack of belief, but rather [a corporate timidity and culture](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) that they had to overcome. Which they [seemingly now have](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). As such, they're right there [in the thick of the AI race](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/), miles – no, *lightyears* – ahead of Apple. So it was obviously wise of Apple to partner with one of the leaders in AI to give Siri [a brain transplant](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/). It was there own way [to jump back into the race](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/), at least from a product-perspective. Just one little problem. The product itself. Again, all the reports (and previous work) on Siri indicated it would remain this nebulous AI thing running in the background. But that's just not the way people are now trained – [from the get go](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) – to interact with AI. Much to the chagrin of Craig Federighi ([now leading up Apple's AI efforts](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/)) and John Giannandrea (now since ["retired" from Apple's AI efforts](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/)), the chatbot won. But as Meta, Google, and others have [learned](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/), it's not enough to have a chatbot that resides amorphously everywhere. Users needs [a centralized place](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/191357013/super-gemini?ref=spyglass.org) to go to use AI. At least for now, in these early days. Which is to say, there needs to be an app. You might have thought the company most synonymous with apps would have understood this from the get-go. But again, all indications were that they did not. They were clearly going to have to learn the hard way, a likely mistake that I noted [over](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) and [over](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/185430406/it-was-enchante-to-meet-you?ref=spyglass.org) and [over](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/) again. But [I'll highlight what I wrote all the way back in June 2024](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chatbot/), right after Apple unveiled Apple Intelligence: > The one thing I still wonder/think about post-WWDC is if Apple does still have a go-forward plan on the chance that the chatbot paradigm isn't just a fad. I'm using "chatbot" as a catch-all here – I also believe [chatbots are a feature](https://spyglass.org/ai-agents/) – but it's more about the overall interaction paradigm. That is, what if [ChatGPT has taught](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) a new generation that the best way to interact with AI is to ask "it" something (be it via text, [voice](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/), images, etc) and get something back – not just from your content, but from beyond. Apple doesn't currently have a way to do that – aside from the ChatGPT fallback. What if Apple needs to answer this call still? > > Logically, this would be through Siri – assuming they can get Siri up to snuff, [which is still a big assumption](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/). And maybe we get to the point where "she" merges with Spotlight? And then Apple could just swap-out [ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude/etc](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai/) with their own LLM output. But the brilliance of their model here is that they can do this slowly and subtly over time. This doesn't have to be a rip-out Google Maps and shove a wonky Apple Maps in users' faces situation. The query routing system Apple has built should allow them to just slot in their own results as they're confident in them. > > Or perhaps they do decide that this is just like the web search paradigm. In that case, they strike a deal with one of these players to be the default chatbot in exchange for a handsome fee and/or revenue split. Well, it's happening. (Right down to striking those deals.) And it didn't even require getting it wrong (again) in iOS 27 [before inevitably doing it correctly in iOS 28](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/)! Here's [Mark Gurman reporting for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/ios-27-features-apple-ai-reboot-with-siri-app-new-interface-ask-siri-button?ref=spyglass.org): > As part of the shift toward this approach, Apple is testing a dedicated Siri app for the iPhone, iPad and Mac later this year. It rivals outside AI tools while also giving users a central place to access their past interactions. Yeah, so just like every other AI service. Thank you. But perhaps the most wild element of this report is that Gurman has either seen the new app or been in touch with someone who has and can describe it in great detail. (The leaks he's able to pull out of Apple [remain increasingly wild to me](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/).) > The app’s main interface will display prior conversations in either a list or a grid of rounded rectangles with text previews. Users can pin favorite chats, save older conversations, search across interactions and start new chats via a prominent plus button. > > The conversation view resembles a thread in Apple’s Messages app, with chat bubbles and a text entry field. It also includes a toggle for switching in and out of voice mode and an option to upload attachments — such as documents and photos — for analysis. These features have already become standard in modern chatbot interfaces. > > When starting a new conversation, Siri will offer suggested prompts based on prior usage. The interface adapts to light and dark modes, with a white background and dark text or the inverse. Again, all of that sounds good/standard. And amazingly, he goes even more in-depth on the UI Apple is clearly at least testing: > Users will still be able to trigger Siri via the power button or voice command, but Apple is testing a redesigned interface that replaces the glowing edges effect introduced in iOS 18. > > One new design in testing places Siri at the top of the screen within the Dynamic Island, the mini-interface that Apple introduced in 2022\. After it’s activated, Siri will prompt the user to “Search or Ask.” > > When processing a request, a pill-shaped indicator labeled “Searching” appears, alongside a glowing Siri icon. Once results are ready, the interface expands into a larger translucent panel with Apple’s Liquid Glass design. Users can pull the menu down further to begin conversing back and forth. This points to the stuff that other AI apps/services can't do because they don't control the iPhone, Apple does. Again, Apple went about this at first all wrong because the chatbot interface won, but being able to do *both* will likely be pretty killer here. I "hack" this together by [using the iPhone "Action Button"](https://spyglass.org/2025-iphone-homescreen/) to invoke ChatGPT, but it just launches the app, it's not as seamless as, say, hitting a button and talking to Siri.[1](#one) Assuming Siri actually works now – thanks, Google – we could be getting the best of both worlds from Apple. And that could actually push [the AI interaction paradigm](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) forward. Beyond the chatbot! This points directly to Apple's potential power here. Yes, in AI. Yes, despite years of [missteps](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) and [setbacks](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/). If they can come in now with an actually working Siri – I know, I know! – in both app and system-wide form, [they could actually vault right back to the top](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) of the AI conversation. The other players are [all working on hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) to try to counter the hold Apple has with the iPhone. But they're not going to replace the iPhone – at least not anytime soon, so... Again, there's a world in which Apple, despite the [endless wandering](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) [through the](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) [AI desert](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/), spending [basically nothing on CapEx](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) while [their peers spend hundreds of billions](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/), wins. Again. The bigger issue remains that if by outsourcing the core work to Google, Apple never is able to catch up from a pure technology stand-point and this encumbers the true "what's next" shift in hardware. But again, that's likely years away. The hope would be that Apple is simply buying themselves more time to meet that moment as well. I'm more skeptical of that longer term if AI really does change everything, which is why [I don't think it's *completely* insane to try to buy Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/) right now. (It's just mostly insane.) Anyway, it all starts with getting Siri right. And that includes *implementing* Siri right. And that means there needs to be an app for that. **One more thing:** Back to Gurman's report: > Apple is also working to replace its existing on-device search system, Spotlight, with Siri. The new unified interface helps users find local content or submit broader queries in one place. Yes, this obviously needs to happen. Per my point two years ago, Siri and Spotlight should merge into the one search to rule them all. I don't know about the reported "Search or Ask" functionality per above – sounds sort of like the 'Dr. Know' system [from the movie actually called *A.I.*](https://spyglass.org/ai-movie-ai/) which confuses the user. In this case, an AI android. ["Flat fact?"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0QkgAuEPbk&ref=spyglass.org) --- 1 You can sort of "hack" this together too thanks to Apple's Shortcuts app, but it's still a bit more wonky than a true system-level integration. [↩](#) ### Before MacBook Neo, There Was iBook URL: https://spyglass.org/made-apple-great-again/ Last updated: 2026-07-14T11:55:01.000Z The opening is almost like the beginning of [the music video for U2's "Where the Streets Have No Name"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzZWSrr5wFI&ref=spyglass.org). Just about a minute in, we see him getting mic'd up, ready to take the outdoor stage. Not Bono. Steve Jobs. [The year is 1999](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoM2Y2KO6kU&ref=spyglass.org). There is no black turtle neck, but rather a gray long-sleeve tee. The jeans are ripped in a very 1990s way. The music fades as Jobs walks up, looking a bit tired but healthy. He is just 44 years old.[1](#one) Yes, a new video of Jobs has been unearthed. And yes, it simply must be written about. [This is](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) [the way](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/). And it seems like perfect timing for this video to surface given that Apple has just [unveiled the MacBook Neo](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) – the first laptop to come in fun colors since the candy-colored iBooks back in the day. This video is that day. The setting is 1 Infinite Loop – Apple's main HQ before the spaceship landed – and it's a breezy day in July 1999\. Jobs and a lot of the team has just returned from New York where they used [Macworld to unveil the consumer laptop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1u-PJV7WeQ&ref=spyglass.org). Notably, the final piece of the puzzle Jobs laid out when he returned two years prior to the company he founded. Yes, [the quadrant](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds9Qstu1XRg&ref=spyglass.org) was now complete. Jobs clearly felt great about the unveiling. "Everyone is going nuts – including our competitors," he said to laughs. Again, it sounds [a lot like today](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/). He goes on and on about how "awesome" the iBook is – especially since it had to follow the iMac, an incredibly tough act to follow. And while others had struggled to do consumer portables well because of all the corners that need to be cut in order to make such devices affordable Jobs believed Apple nailed it and seemingly couldn't help but grab one to show it off, just like he would in a normal keynote. Speaking of, he told the crowd of employees about his favorite moment in his presentation when he was able to walk around with the iBook, surfing the web. As he told it, everyone was trying to figure out what was going on. "And then we told them about AirPort." It's nearly impossible to think about now, but in 1999, wireless internet was not ubiquitous. So this must have seemed like pure magic. And Jobs describes how they were able to make this work on a consumer device thanks to some technology from Lucent – which Jobs noted that Apple was able to "extract" out of their labs. ☎️ ****Wild aside:** **this was almost the exact peak of Lucent*, which spun off in 1996 from AT&T as the famous [Bell Labs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell%5FLabs?ref=spyglass.org) division of the company. By late 1999, it reached a market cap of $250B – it was the most widely held stock at the time. A few months later, the Dot Com Bubble burst and the stock went from around $84/share to **under $1*. The company stayed afloat by slashing tens of thousands of jobs, before eventually being merged with French telecom Alcatel. A decade later, Nokia acquired the combined company... The resulting AirPort product was something Jobs was clearly proud of. "It just works." Hearing such praise now, it's especially wild to me that Apple was so quick to kill the product off a decade ago – which I wrote about at the time as [their "ErrorPort" moment](https://500ish.com/errorport-a5c0e8783d04?ref=spyglass.org). Steve Jobs, famously, [didn't like to look back](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qqUbdMDRdw&ref=spyglass.org). But he also clearly recognized the moment here, two years after returning to the company, with Apple having just completed that all-important quadrant. "You've completely overhauled Apple," he beams to his employees. With the iBook in place, completing their original deceptively "simple" plan, Jobs notes that they can now enter a mode where they're turning over those four key products as fast as they can to stay ahead of the competition. The same basic strategy Apple has today, of course. Albeit with a product lineup [not quite so simple](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). But Apple was a very different company in 1999\. This was a couple years before the iPod, so all that mattered was moving Macs. Jobs noted that Apple was selling about 4 to 5 million computers a year. Last year, Apple likely shipped just north of *25 million Macs*. **And about 75 million iPads**. ***And maybe another 250 million iPhones***. Jobs pulled out a piece of paper to close with "one last thing": > "A lot of people have declared our turnaround officially complete. And you would have to say that’s true. We’ve had seven consecutive profitable quarters. We made $200M last quarter. That’s a lot of money! And we’ve got great products. But, you know, I never looked at it that way. The reason I came here had nothing to do with turning Apple around. Because that’s about the company. And I know we all love this company, but what we love even more is putting these great products out into the world and seeing people use them. And so the reason I came back here. And I’m sure the reason you’re here isn’t to turn Apple around, it’s to make Apple great again. Right? And I think we now have that possibility. We now have that possibility with the work you’ve all done in the last two years. The foundation we have now is really great." This is a great message delivered in a very Jobsian way: this wasn't about a turnaround, this was about putting great products into the world. The turnaround was a byproduct of that. Oh and did you catch it? Yes, Steve Jobs may have invented "MAGA" before anyone in Donald Trump's orbit did. Make *Apple* Great Again. Jobs went on to note that the real secret to Apple's success is that they're the last company willing to "make the whole widget". And because they don't have to constantly convince endless partners to do the work they believe will make for great products, they have a unique advantage over the Dells and Compaqs of the world. Even yes, Microsoft. Talking about their wireless breakthroughs, Jobs noted that the PC guys simply couldn't do it even though the technology has been there for the taking. But when Dell or Compaq go to Microsoft to get the software to make it all work, they'll get: "Well, it’s not high volume. We’ve got 38 million things wrong with our software. We’ll put it at the bottom of the list." This drew huge laughs from the audience. Nothing beats [a shot](https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/) at Apple and Jobs' old foe. > "We can break through those things and bring innovation to customers because we’re the last people in this business that give a shit about making great computers." Finally, Jobs spoke to focusing on Apple's core markets with creative professionals, consumers, and education. He lamented how Apple has slipped a bit in the latter market and wanted Apple to renew focus. Which seemingly worked for a time, [before focus was lost again](https://500ish.com/apple-cedes-735192326da4?ref=spyglass.org) – only to be regained again with the MacBook Neo! It all comes back around... > "I happen to know all the things in the pipeline. And I can tell there are so many more great things coming. It’s unbelievable. The products are just unbelievable. The best stuff i’ve ever seen in my life. So I think we’re really gonna be able to rock and roll the next few years." Indeed, they did. --- 1 Holy shit, I realized when doing the math that Jobs in this video is almost the *exact* same age that I am right now. That's sort of wild to think about... [↩](#) ### Meta Keeps Missing URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-many-bets/ Last updated: 2026-07-10T14:16:56.000Z It goes without saying that Meta has a great business. One of the greatest ever created, in fact. At the same time, it's almost entirely a one-dimensional business. The social networks have changed, but the monetization remains the same. Ads. I'm perhaps even being generous with "almost" here. Meta's business last year was roughly 98% advertising. To be fair, in the success state, this ends up being the knock on most companies that are able to crack their business model. And again, few have cracked it as well as Meta has. And AI will likely help them crack it further. Still, it's an incredible amount of concentration for a company that is 22 years old. And has been publicly traded for 16 of those years... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Microsoft Got Sloppy with Windows URL: https://spyglass.org/microslop-windows/ Last updated: 2026-07-10T14:16:37.000Z Anyone complaining about the latest coat of paint on top of macOS should stop and read [this post by Ed Bott](https://www.zdnet.com/article/windows-users-are-angry-and-microsoft-is-finally-doing-something-about-it/?ref=spyglass.org). [Or this one](https://www.thurrott.com/windows/windows-11/332300/making-windows-11-suck-less-in-2026?ref=spyglass.org). [Or this one](https://www.theverge.com/tech/870045/microsoft-windows-11-issues-rebuilding-trust-notepad?ref=spyglass.org). [Or any of these](https://www.techmeme.com/260320/p18?ref=spyglass.org#a260320p18). But Bott in particular eviscerates Microsoft this week for their (mis)management of Windows. Granted, it has been a long time since I used Windows on a regular basis. While it dominated the first 20 years of my computing life (post-MS DOS), the last 20 years have been almost entirely on macOS (post-OS X). So I guess I didn't realize just how bad Windows 11 apparently is. Maybe not a Vista-level disaster,[1](#one) but [judging from Microsoft's own post](https://blogs.windows.com/windows-insider/2026/03/20/our-commitment-to-windows-quality/?ref=spyglass.org) about their (apparently newfound) "commitment to quality", it sure reads like [basically everything](https://www.theverge.com/news/897834/microsoft-windows-11-quality-performance-commitments-changes?ref=spyglass.org) in Windows 11 well, sucks. Here's Bott commenting on that post: > What's most remarkable about this post is what it doesn't contain. Here's how Davuluri kicked things off: > > "Every day, we hear from the community about how you experience Windows. And over the past several months, the team and I have spent a great deal of time analyzing your feedback. What came through was the voice of people who care deeply about Windows and want it to be better." > > That paragraph belongs in the [non-apology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-apology?ref=spyglass.org) Hall of Fame, with a cross-reference to ["Friday news dump"](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/friday-news-dump/?ref=spyglass.org) – a classic PR technique that aims to minimize media coverage of the awkward news being released. > > When I read that paragraph, I was gobsmacked. They "spent months analyzing feedback"? Seriously? They needed charts and graphs to figure out that people just want Windows to work? The laundry list of changes really does read almost as if it would be easier to throw the entire OS out and just start over – by doing exactly the *opposite* of what has been done to date. These are complaints that have been going on for *years*, and have seemingly grown in-step as Microsoft slowly forced Windows 11 upon the majority of their user base. That is, the only reason everyone wasn't complaining on day one is simply because most of them chose to stay on Windows 10\. Once they upgrade, the complaints start. Again, this sounds somewhat similar to macOS Tahoe on the surface. But again, it's just that: the surface. Most of the complaints there are superficial, ranging from icon design to transparency settings. Yes, most of it stems from [the "Liquid Glass" updates](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/), which were clearly conceived for iOS, but also brought to the Mac in an attempt to unify the design language. But this seems quite different from the situation with Windows, where some pretty fundamental elements of the OS just seem broken or buggy [or worse](https://spyglass.org/windows-start-menu-ads/). Sure, we're in the post-Windows era of Microsoft, but still, there are *billions* of users of that OS on a daily basis. Microsoft may no longer really care about that user base as it's no longer the primary driver for the company, but still... it's *wild* that they would let Windows degrade in such a way. These list of changes almost read as if no one inside of Microsoft actually uses Windows any more. But really, the complaints read mostly like: just give us the old Windows back. And sure, people generally hate change, we know that. But they seem to especially hate it when you're shoving constant updates and notifications ([or worse](https://spyglass.org/windows-start-menu-ads/)) in their face to try to upsell them on whatever initiative Microsoft *does care* about right now. This is clearly a "[milking the base](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/)" situation. And when you're spending well over a hundred billion dollars a year to build out your future in AI, that Windows user base must look like the world's largest herd of cows. Back to Bott: > As I noted earlier this year, Microsoft has been relentlessly shoehorning AI features into places where they absolutely don't belong. I follow feedback in forums carefully, and I would estimate that roughly 99% of the comments about AI features boil down to a simple request: Please stop. > > In a blog post welcoming 2026, CEO Satya Nadella argued that "we need to get beyond the arguments of slop vs. sophistication." In response, the internet made "Microslop" the [most popular meme](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/microslop?ref=spyglass.org) of the new year. > > Bowing to that feedback, Microsoft now says it is backing off. "You will see us be more intentional about how and where Copilot integrates across Windows, focusing on experiences that are genuinely useful and well‑crafted," Davuluri says. Specifically: "We are reducing unnecessary Copilot entry points, starting with apps like Snipping Tool, Photos, Widgets, and Notepad." Copilot is [clearly a mess for Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) on a few fronts, hence why they're loading up the cockpit with even more copilots (while perhaps shoving the captain out with [the most golden of parachutes](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/)). But Microsoft obviously [thought that AI would be the future of Windows](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai/). And they [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) had an [opening](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-ai-silicon-powered-by-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-elite/) there [given](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-apple/) their [prescient](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/) early bet on OpenAI. [Then](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-recall-security/) it [all](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-recalls-recall/) [went](https://spyglass.org/total-recall-microsoft/) [to](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-macbook-error/) [shit](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/). Now they have to [rip that shit out](https://www.windowscentral.com/microsoft/windows-11/microsoft-quietly-scraps-plans-to-bring-copilot-to-notifications-and-settings-on-windows-11-as-it-moves-to-reduce-ai-bloat-across-the-os?ref=spyglass.org) of Windows, lest that user base start jumping out... Speaking of, the timing here does seem more interesting than a typical Friday news dump. Apple, of course, [just unveiled the MacBook Neo](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/). Their $599 computer is priced to move. And [a lot of that movement](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) will likely be first-time Mac buyers – [as is clearly already the case](https://www.tomshardware.com/laptops/macbooks/tim-cook-says-apple-had-its-best-launch-week-for-first-time-mac-customers-with-the-macbook-neo-entry-level-device-now-out-of-stock-with-orders-taking-two-to-three-weeks-to-ship?ref=spyglass.org). Those users probably aren't coming from Linux. And a large subset of them probably aren't coming from anywhere – but they are undoubtedly would-be PC ([or Chromebook](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/)) buyers for school. That, of course is not good news for Microsoft. But it's perhaps especially not good news when you have an OS that your current user base *hates*. Is $599 a pricey fix for Windows 11? No doubt. But it's almost a permanent one. One that goes far beyond Steve Jobs' famous ["glass of ice water in hell"](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-android/). This isn't [one good piece](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-android/) of software installed in a burning sea of lava, this is extinguishing the fiery hell pit with the arctic ocean that is macOS. Well, provided you can live with Liquid Glass. Which pretty much any Windows user would gladly take over this situation at this point, one suspects. Microsoft took Windows [to 11](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-android/). Perhaps they should have stayed at 10. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Microsoft Adds More Copilots to Help Copilot CopilotTheir consumer and commercial AI efforts clearly haven’t worked…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1195.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-18--2026--10_17_41-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/) [Actually, MacBook Neo Is For MeI didn’t expect to, but I’m keeping it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1196.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_8197-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/) [No Fun: the Growing List of ‘AI PC’ Problems‘Copilot+ PCs’ clearly have a major problem with a small little software category called ‘gaming’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1197.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Frustrated-Person-Surface-Laptop-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/) --- 1 Looking back, it seems almost as if Microsoft is locked into a situation where nearly *every other* version of Windows is a dud. It's sort of like the thing where only every other *Star Trek* movie would be good. With Microsoft, it feels like every time they try to branch out a bit, they mess up Windows to the point where they have to course correct, mainly by backtracking on the bigger changes. [↩](#) ### Amazon's Novel Approach to a Newfangled AI Device: a Phone? URL: https://spyglass.org/amazon-fire-phone-reborn-for-ai/ Last updated: 2026-07-10T14:17:26.000Z [ Exclusive: Amazon plans smartphone comeback More than a decade after Fire Phone flop... ![](https://www.reuters.com/pf/resources/images/reuters/favicon/tr_fvcn_kinesis_32x32_v2.ico?d=354) Reuters Greg Bensinger ![](https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/4PWNS3CEJJLYVFCHJ4ARFDFWL4.jpg?auth=fb17c44d4f5fdd06e0105b220f496d63fd1f7cb366fb7aa5a466f9eb4751ce92&width=1920&quality=80) ](https://www.reuters.com/technology/amazon-plans-smartphone-comeback-more-than-decade-after-fire-phone-flop-2026-03-20/?ref=spyglass.org) The year is 2014\. Amazon, realizing that the world has almost entirely shifted to smartphones for their computing needs, felt left out. They were early to the newfangled gadget race with the Kindle. And dipped their toes in the tablet waters with the Kindle Fire in 2011.[1](#one) But now, directed by Jeff Bezos himself, it was time for Amazon to go for it. The Fire Phone was a big swing. And miss. In part because [no one would tell Bezos "no"](https://techcrunch.com/2014/07/27/the-vp-of-devils-advocacy/?ref=spyglass.org). But in part because Amazon was just far too late. The year is 2026... > The latest effort, known internally as “Transformer,” is being developed within its devices and services unit, according to four people familiar with the matter. The phone is seen as a potential mobile personalization device that can sync with home voice assistant Alexa and serve as a conduit to Amazon customers throughout the day, the people ‌said. Bezos may be gone,[2](#two) but history repeats... > As envisioned, the new phone’s personalization features would make buying from Amazon.com, watching Prime Video, listening to Prime Music or ordering food ⁠from partners like Grubhub easier than ever, the people said. They asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss internal matters. Come on, there is no way anyone needs that device. These needs were covered 12 years ago. They're more covered now – still by Apple and Google. **BUT...** > A key focus of the Transformer project has been integrating artificial intelligence capabilities into the device, the people said. That could eliminate the need for traditional app stores, which require downloading and registering for applications before they can be used. > > Alexa would likely be a core feature but not necessarily the primary operating system of the phone, the people said. I'm going to zag a bit here in thinking that this may not be totally insane. [Silly 3D screen gimmicks](https://parislemon.com/post/82809283836/yes-another-3d-smartphone-this-time-from?ref=spyglass.org) may not have been [enough](https://parislemon.com/post/83525389409/amazons-tilt-to-do-anything-phone?ref=spyglass.org) to get people to switch phones but there is a world in which AI can. We're not quite in that world yet. But we're perhaps closing in on it. And this Amazon project sounds pretty early. A month ago, [I made the case](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) that despite the [endless](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) consternation about Apple's place in the Age of AI, they may actually end up positioned well thanks to one thing: the iPhone. First and foremost, [there's certainly a case to be made](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) that the best device for AI is the one you use most often. [And that's the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). Second, all [the newfangled devices](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) in the works being built around AI – including by Apple – are undoubtedly going to rely upon the iPhone as their main hub for the foreseeable future. Why? That's where the connection is. And again, it's the device you already have on you. Even OpenAI knows that you're [unlikely to give that up](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/), no matter how good any new AI device may be – even if it's one [made by the guy who designed the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)! Sure, everyone learned from the lesson which Humane (a startup in which Sam Altman was the largest investor, mind you) [learned the hard way](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/). But they also learned from said Fire Phone. But again, [what if there is an opening here](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/)? While everyone else, including Meta, is conceding to Apple's position at the moment, what if it is a time to try to re-enter the phone business? With a device completely rebuilt for AI? I'm not saying it will work. In fact, there's a very good chance it won't – least of which because aside from the product itself, competing in the phone business is insanely hard for a number of other more logistical reasons. But it may be worth a shot? Especially if you're in the midst of spending, say, [$200B this year](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/ai-jitters?ref=spyglass.org) on [AI infrastructure](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/)? Why not throw a few billion at an AI phone project? And Amazon has a potentially interesting guy to do it. [Last May, I noted](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/) what seemed to be Amazon's attempt to jump into the new AI device race, with the 'ZeroOne' project. And that was being led by J Allard, [a name which long ago](https://spyglass.org/so-dramatic/#:~:text=J%20Allard...,The%20Verge%5D) dropped off the radar, but those of us around long enough will remember well from the original Xbox days and later the Zune at Microsoft. The ZunePhone never happened – nor did the ill-fated ["Courier" project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft%5FCourier?ref=spyglass.org) – but might Allard be able to get to take his swing under the guidance of his old Microsoft compatriot Panos Panay? Again, it all sounds pretty early. To this point: > Three people who have worked on the Transformer project said the phone is still under development. The company has explored both a traditional smartphone and a so‑called “dumbphone” with more limited features that could help counter screen addiction. Amazon has not yet sought wireless carrier partners for the device, these people said. > > One inspiration for the new phone has been the Light Phone, two of the people said, a $700 minimalist smartphone with a camera, map, calendar and not much ⁠else, such as an app store or web browser. > > A dumbphone or feature phone could also help Amazon market it as a potential second handset to accompany iPhones and Samsung Galaxies already in customers’ pockets, the people said. Such handsets, like the Light Phone and flip phones, accounted for 15% of global handset sales in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research. Certainly the positioning as [a "second device"](https://spyglass.org/clever-clicks-smartphone-accessory/) would be the safer path for Amazon to attempt here. But I'm not certain they shouldn't try to go for the big dogs. Especially given Apple's clear vulnerability in AI. To that end, and given [Zuck's intense hatred of being beholden to Apple](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/), I'm sort of shocked Meta hasn't been working on a new Facebook Phone![3](#three) I would also just note that Amazon not only has their huge investment in Anthropic, but is [pulling OpenAI a lot closer](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/). What if OpenAI's new device didn't need to pair with the iPhone, but with an Amazon phone instead? And what if some combination of Claude, ChatGPT, and Alexa could power Amazon's device? A true [Anyone-But-Google AI Alliance](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/)! I will end by noting what [I closed with just about a year ago](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/): > Beyond the AI moment, all of this movement also seems tied to the fact that the iPhone – and smartphones in general – are starting to feel [a bit long in the tooth](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/). People are [perhaps primed](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) for that "what's next". Which is a billion times easier said than done, of course. But Allard has a good pedigree – even the Zune, which we all make fun of now, was a pretty good device and ahead of its time in ways. It just tried to fast-follow the iPod without a lot of Apple's built-in strengths in consumer. [And it came in brown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zune%5F30?ref=spyglass.org). > > Could be worse. [Could have been the Fire Phone](https://techcrunch.com/2014/07/27/the-vp-of-devils-advocacy/?ref=spyglass.org). Let's not do that again, Amazon. Or maybe let's? --- **Update May 13, 2026**: Some updated thoughts based on an interview with Panos Panay... [Amazon Phones HomeDo Panos Panay’s verbal gymnastics stick the landing?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3-4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-13--2026--12_02_30-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-phone-home/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Amazon Joins the Race for “What’s Next” After the iPhoneJ Allard brings some device pedigree to Amazon’s ‘ZeroOne’ team…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1192.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-30--2025--12_56_51-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/) [Can OpenAI Build Alexa Before Amazon Can Build ChatGPT?Actually, their impending partnership may start to make more sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1191.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-22--2026--02_34_52-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1193.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) --- 1 [A story](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/27/rumor-an-amazon-android-tablet-may-follow-the-amazon-android-app-store/?ref=spyglass.org) [I broke way back when](https://techcrunch.com/2011/09/02/amazon-kindle-tablet/?ref=spyglass.org)! [↩](#) 2 Well, from day-to-day operations, but he's still chairman of the board, of course. Not to mention the largest shareholder... [↩](#) 3 Yes, another [failed attempt to compete back in the day](https://techcrunch.com/2013/04/09/htc-first-facebook-home-review/?ref=spyglass.org). It would obviously need a new name now... MetaPhone? [↩](#) ### OpenAI's Odyssey URL: https://spyglass.org/theres-always-a-siren/ Last updated: 2026-07-08T08:19:13.000Z "We cannot miss this moment because we are distracted by side quests." Begun, the Fidji Simo era of OpenAI truly has? Ever since [she was hired last May](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/163162284/openai-expands-leadership-with-fidji-simo?ref=spyglass.org), my read – and I believe the read of many – was that there was a reason they gave her that secondary CEO title. I mean, it may have taken that to convince her to take the role, but it also [perhaps pointed to what the actual role would be](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). That is: the CEO in [all but name](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/). But actually, with the name too. As with all things OpenAI, it's complicated... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Actually, MacBook Neo Is For Me URL: https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo-thoughts/ Last updated: 2026-07-08T08:18:56.000Z The MacBook Neo [should not be a device for me](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/). I have a Mac in my office with an M3 Max chip. And I have an M4 MacBook Air maxed out with 32GB of RAM. You know, just in case. When the new Macs hit a couple weeks back, I assumed I would be tempted by one of the M5 variants. But just like any good consumer, I'm compelled by the idea of "new". Despite its iPhone-class chip and meager 8GB of RAM, I had to try out the MacBook Neo. And I sort of love it. I keep trying to find a breaking point in my own workflows, but I honestly can't. Yes, it's ever-so-slightly slower at certain tasks. And yes, my workflows are admittedly pretty light, dominated by web-usage with a few native Mac apps sprinkled in here and there. But I gave it a solid week of daily usage. There's nothing I would consider a deal-breaker here or even close to it. So I'm keeping it. I'm honest-to-god [surprised by this](https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/). I had assumed I might return it and opt for an M5 machine. Instead, I think I'm gonna trade in one of my other Macs. I realize this reads like one of those gimmicky posts where someone forces themself to do something, perhaps in order to write a post about it. [Like when I quit email many years ago](https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/06/i-wouldnt-say-ive-been-missing-it/?ref=spyglass.org). I promise this is not that! I just really like the MacBook Neo. Yes, I like the color, but I also like the footprint, which is ever-so-slightly more compact than the MacBook Air. I also just like the way it feels versus the Air. I was someone who still sort of preferred the "teardrop" shape of the OG Airs, so I don't mind the ever-so-slightly chunkier form factor. It's the exact same weight as the Air, and that smaller footprint makes it fit a bit better in my bag. I also like the screen even though its 13" is ever-so-slightly smaller than the 13" of the Air. One thing I notice: because there's no "lip" here – the cut out area for the camera found on both MacBook Air and Pro screens in recent years – when you expand an app full-screen, which I often do, the screen real estate is actually even more similar to the Air because that "full screen" pushes everything below the lip. On the Neo, with no lip, it goes right to the bezels. I even sort of like the speakers right there at the front of the machine. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8228.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8235.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8243.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8246.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8362.jpeg) I thought the actually-clickable trackpad would annoy me. It's slightly louder, but I like the feel of the click. And it clicks all over. No corner has been left un-clicked. The only downside I've found is the lack of the "deeper" click which the fake-click-trackpad enabled. Here, there's an option to do that with a three-finger tap instead. I honestly even like the sound it makes on-click! It reminds me of a more old-school machine. Ditto with the sound the keyboard keys make. Speaking of, I love the slight color-matching those keys take on. I find black keys always end up looking greasy, whereas white keys always end up looking dirty. Because these are yellow-ish – almost like a "cream" color – I'm hopefully they'll age better than those. Time will tell, I suppose. On the color front, I obviously opted for "Citrus" and in my mind it's the clear winner of the colors. I checked out the others at an Apple Store, and while I was tempted by "Indigo", it was a little too dark for my taste. That made it appear more gray or dark silver, or even one of the million variants of black that Apple rotates through. I did like those off-blue keys though! "Blush" was way too subtle. And "Silver" way too boring. I implore Apple to have more fun here. Taking the Citrus out-and-about garners a lot of looks. People clearly know it's a MacBook but perhaps haven't seen the Neo before and might think it's a custom paint job. That plus the Apple logo blending in far more as it's color-matched and not metallic. Like many of Apple's machines, the color shifts depending on the lighting situation. In daylight, the "Citrus" Neo almost *glows*.[1](#one) It's fun to look at while using it! When I think about my appreciation for all of the above and then I remember that this machine is $599 (well, $699, as I got the Touch ID version, which I'd obviously recommend), I'm sort of astounded. Apple is a company that famously doesn't do cheap. This machine in no way feels cheap and yet *is* cheap. Certainly relative to other Macs. But even relative to other machines by other manufacturers, I have to imagine this is the best value you can possibly find. Sure, there will be machines which are less expensive, but those are undoubtedly junky in some ways. The MacBook Neo is truly, honest-to-goodness, great. Not great for its price. Just great. Which is undoubtedly why those other manufacturers are freaking the fuck out at the moment. Even if they could somehow match the build quality here, they'd still have to run Windows. Ouch. That's why [I truly believe](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) this machine is the smartest move Apple has done in years. It is going to vastly expand their Mac base. That has famously been growing over many years thanks to the halo effects of at first the iPod and then the iPhone and iPad, but I suspect this machine is going to boost the business with no halo required. It's just a really great machine at a really great price. **One more thing:** I will admit that one reason why I think I'm so gung-ho about keeping (and using) the Neo is that part of me wonders if it's the last time I might be able to before AI workflows require beefier specs again. Right now, with all services in the cloud, it mostly doesn't matter. But if [AI moves more local](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) – and not just with Apple, but with [tools like OpenClaw](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/), and [whatever comes after](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/) – not only will 8GB of RAM not cut it, you're going to want the most RAM and best chips possible. And so again, this may be perfect timing for Apple to do the Neo. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8225-1.jpeg) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [MacBook Neo: WhoaApple’s newest Mac is priced to move…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1180.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-5.51.36---PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) [Little? Yellow? Different?A non-cutting-edge, but fun MacBook…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1181.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_sugcqqsugcqqsugc-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/) --- 1 I swear at points that it really does glow almost a neon *green*. It's pretty wild and striking to behold. I tried to capture it below... [↩](#) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8388.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/IMG_8386-1.jpeg) Seeing green? But it's even more neon-y in person! ### Microsoft Adds More Copilots to Help Copilot Copilot URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-copilot-copilot/ Last updated: 2026-07-07T09:33:31.000Z Oh look, another new copilot for Microsoft Copilot. [Here's Jordan Novet for *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/microsoft-copilot-ai-suleyman.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Microsoft said Tuesday that it’s bringing together the engineering groups for its commercial and consumer [Copilot](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/microsoft-faces-uphill-climb-to-win-in-ai-chatbots-with-copilot.html?ref=spyglass.org) assistants, which have yet to gain broad adoption. > > Jacob Andreou, a former Snap executive who works in Microsoft’s [artificial intelligence](https://www.cnbc.com/ai-effect/?ref=spyglass.org) unit, will become an executive vice president in charge of the consumer and commercial Copilot experience, CEO [Satya Nadella](https://www.cnbc.com/satya-nadella/?ref=spyglass.org) wrote in a memo to employees. > > Andreou will report to Nadella. Executives Ryan Roslansky, Perry Clarke and Charles Lamanna, who will also [report to Nadella](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/microsofts-top-office-executive-rajesh-jha-retiring-after-35-years.html?ref=spyglass.org), will lead Microsoft 365 applications and the Copilot platform, Nadella wrote. While it undoubtedly makes sense to try to unify [these disparate Copilot groups](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/), which are a branding, if not organizational nightmare, the fact that all of these people will now report directly to Satya Nadella is sort of wild. Yes, there are now *four* copilots of Copilot – well, actually, five: > The Copilot moves will free up executive Mustafa Suleyman, a former co-founder of AI lab DeepMind that [Google](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL/?ref=spyglass.org) bought in 2014, to focus more on building new models. > > “The next phase of this plan is to restructure our organization to enable me to focus all my energy on our Superintelligence efforts and be able to deliver world class models for Microsoft over the next 5 years,” Suleyman wrote in a memo. “These models will enable us to build enterprise tuned lineages that help improve all our products across the company.” "Free up" seems like just about the most generous way possible to frame this shift. As it's a pretty clear acknowledgement that Suleyman's [endless efforts](https://spyglass.org/ai-matter-of-trust/) to create AI products for Microsoft to [compete with ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) and Gemini have [failed](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/). It now even looks like Microsoft is quickly falling behind Claude... > Microsoft’s Copilot app had 6 million daily active users in February, while OpenAI’s ChatGPT had 440 million and Google’s Gemini had 82 million, according to data from app analytics company Sensor Tower. > > Sensor Tower said that so far in March, Anthropic’s Claude, which has gotten extensive media attention because of Anthropic’s [standoff with the U.S. Department of Defense](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/anthropic-claude-emil-michael-defense.html?ref=spyglass.org), has reached 9 million daily users, while Copilot still stands at 6 million. None of this is hugely surprising, in fact, it was [one of my main predictions for 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/): > **Meta and Microsoft reboot their AI efforts – again** – When Microsoft pulled off the first "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" in the form of [their Inflection deal](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/), it was clear Satya Nadella felt it was a needed gamble to hedge against their OpenAI bet, which became problematic after "The Blip". In March, we'll hit the two year anniversary of that deal and Mustafa Suleyman being charged with getting Microsoft some sort of traction in AI. With [the new OpenAI arrangement](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) giving Microsoft more flexibility, Nadella – [now in "founder mode"](https://www.ft.com/content/255dbecc-5c57-4928-824f-b3f2d764f635?ref=spyglass.org&syn-25a6b1a6=1) – is clearly going to want to see some results, fast. I don't see that happening so... do they make another big hackqusition? Do something else to try to vault into the race? Meanwhile, Meta obviously [just made one](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) such deal – [a second one](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) – to try to catch up in AI after [dropping the ball with Llama](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). I [remain skeptical](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) that they can just [buy their way back in](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/). And if it's not working, how fast does Mark Zuckerberg act yet again? Another deal?... Well, it's March. Almost two years to [the date of the Inflection buy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/). Maybe a coincidence, maybe not. Regardless, a natural point to look back to see what is working and what is not.[1](#one) And seemingly [very little is working](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/), certainly when it comes to [consumer and commercial AI](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/). _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Jensen in the Arena URL: https://spyglass.org/the-ai-inference-inflection-point/ Last updated: 2026-07-04T07:05:50.000Z I honestly didn't mean to watch the *entire* [NVIDIA GTC Keynote](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jw%5Fo0xr8MWU&ref=spyglass.org). I have another post I'm working on where a small sliver is relevant, but before I knew it, there I was sitting through an entire *two and a half hour* presentation. Thank god for 1.5x speed. But honestly, I didn't stop because I didn't want to stop. It was compelling! Because Jensen Huang is so compelling as a showman. Others are good at such presentations – [notably Snap's Evan Spiegel](https://spyglass.org/snap-spectacles/) – but no one is [in command](https://500ish.com/in-command-a511a9a83d98?ref=spyglass.org) like this since [you](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/)\-[know](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/)\-[who](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/). And arguably Jensen's command is more impressive, because it's far more technical with products [far less tangible](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/). And despite such technicalities, he's able to weave a narrative that is actually captivating. Perhaps not quite to the mainstream, but certainly to the masses. The attendance and interest in this event has grown in such a way that he can't help but poke fun at it: > "I just want to remind you, this is a tech conference." The first hour was more or less a history lesson as to how NVIDIA, and the AI industry itself, got here. And a love letter to CUDA, NVIDIA's software layer celebrating 20 years of being an all-important moat for the company. GeForce to pixel shaders to RTX. DLSS 5 – the horribly generic name for a new AI upscaling technology for video games – looks amazing and naturally is [already quite controversial](https://www.pcgamer.com/software/ai/dlss-5-clearly-overwrites-game-characters-with-ai-beauty-standards-but-nvidia-says-devs-have-artistic-control/?ref=spyglass.org). Why? AI, of course. Speaking of, we finally got into the meat of the presentation from here. A massive slide behind Jensen highlighted a simple message: three key moments over the past two years. ChatGPT in 2023 ushered in the generative AI era. OpenAI's [o1 model](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) (and really, [o3 model](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-naming-scheme/)) brought us into the reasoning era in 2024\. And last year, Claude Code gave us the agentic era. With that, AI is now able to do [productive work](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/), and that means a new era for NVIDIA and AI in general: "The inflection point of inference has arrived." To hear Jensen tell it, they've been planning on this all along. And certainly there's some truth there in that NVIDIA has been talking up inference for a few years now. But that's mainly been in a defensive manner to insist to everyone that it wasn't a potential vulnerability for this company, but was also the strength. It felt like you could tell how much this criticism annoyed Jensen in the part of his presentation where he pretended to hold up a wrestling-style championship belt (virtually made for him by *SemiAnalysis*) on stage. NVIDIA has body slammed the competition! From the top rope! It wasn't even a close call for the "Token King", you see. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-17-at-5.31.35---PM.png) Except, NVIDIA's actual actions the past year suggest that it might have been getting a bit too close for comfort as agents and coding came fully into view. Or at the very least, an area of concern. It was just a few short months ago that [NVIDIA made their move to "hackquire" Groq](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/), the AI chip startup focused on, what else? Inference. Why did a company with no concerns about their position in the inference market feel the need to make *a $20B* [*deal/no-deal*](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/) – on Christmas Eve, no less? Jensen actually addressed this on stage while showing off their (insanely fast) integration of Groq technology within NVIDIA's new stack. Basically, he acknowledged that the use of SRAM in Groq's purpose-built LPUs (Language Processing Units) gave a level of inference speed which NVIDIA couldn't hope to match with their HBM-based (high-bandwidth memory) systems. But he was also quick to note that Groq couldn't go it alone with only that approach, that they needed the parameter sizes and context that NVIDIA's systems allowed for (because the Groq systems operate with much smaller amounts of their memory). In other words, the systems needed to be paired together, and NVIDIA figured out a way to do that with Dynamo (their "operating system for AI factories"). They can route the inference workflows depending on the situation and need. Two more interesting elements of the deal: 1) doing this as a "hackquire" clearly allowed them to [do it *fast*](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/168381892/blitzhire-acqusitions?ref=spyglass.org), otherwise there's no chance they'd be ready to have Groq technology integrated so quickly. 2) Groq's chips are actually [made by Samsung](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/technology/nvidia-gtc-ai-chips-huang.html?ref=spyglass.org), giving NVIDIA some diversification away from TSMC (and HBM)... All of this is in line with the various reports about why NVIDIA did the deal – and why Groq felt the need to do the deal. But it also points to Jensen's narratives which seem to shift with the benefit of hindsight. In a way, this has seemingly been the story of NVIDIA [from the get-go](https://spyglass.org/the-envy-of-nvidia/). He built the company to be [perfectly oriented to ride waves](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/) that he couldn't possibly foresee coming, only to later note that it was all so obvious. To me, the key to NVIDIA is malleability, not necessarily seeing the *exact* future. And this Groq situation is no different. And that's no less impressive, by the way! Hopefully that helps Jensen calm down a bit when it comes to the competition from AMD and more recently [Google with their TPUs](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/). Then again, that fire even when they're crushing – sorry, body slamming – the competition is undoubtedly part of what makes Jensen, Jensen. And what makes NVIDIA the most valuable company on Earth. Speaking of, did you hear that Jensen now believes they're going to do $1T in sales (well, purchase orders) through next year? Of course, you did, because he made that a focal point of the presentation and that, in turn, [made the](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nvidia-ceo-set-reveal-new-chips-software-ai-megaconference-gtc-2026-03-16/?ref=spyglass.org) [headlines](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-16/nvidia-expects-to-make-1-trillion-from-ai-chips-through-2027?ref=spyglass.org) [easy](https://www.ft.com/content/5f6f78af-aed9-43a5-8e31-2df7851ceb67?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=spyglass.org). "DO YOU HEAR THAT WALL STREET? ONE TRILLION." [Love, Jensen](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/). Forget him holding up the wrestling belt, right now I'm envisioning Jensen as Maximus in *Gladiator* – two literal men in two literal arenas – ["ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbBiXPVKuTA&ref=spyglass.org) We are Jensen! We are! We bow to thee. Anyway, Jensen believes these past two years has seen computing demand increase *one million times over*. That's a pretty precise number for something so imprecise, but he has his own math to back it up: the amount of token generation has increased by ("roughly") 10,000x and the amount of usage has increased by ("probably") 100x. There you go, 1,000,000x. He then reiterated the *most* important equation in all of AI at the moment: how they're getting the math to work for the data center build-outs. Basically: if companies get more AI generation capacity, they can generate more tokens, that means revenues are going up, and also more people are using it, which in turn makes the AI smarter. The "positive flywheel system" as Jensen calls it. Again, basically [all of AI is built around this notion](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) at the moment. [OpenAI most overtly](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/), but other less forward-facing companies such as private credit players doing the debt financings for many of these [data center deals](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) need this system to keep going. No one wants to see what will happen if a "negative flywheel system" starts. Including NVIDIA. Still, while [there are a number of macro risks](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) lingering out there that could puncture [The AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/), NVIDIA shows [no sign of slowing](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/nvidias-43b-profit?ref=spyglass.org). In fact, their revenue growth has been *increasing* again in recent quarters, which is just astonishing at their current size. They also [just posted](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/189374007/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) *the most profitable quarter ever.* Well, for any company aside from one year when an oil crisis fueled Saudi Aramco to new heights. An oil crisis you say... Never mind all that, at least for now. Jensen's message with all the above was loud and clear: all NIVIDA [partners](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) can make their [infrastructure commitments](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) with complete [confidence](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/). Please and thank you. To that end, a large portion of the keynote was devoted to a Vera Rubin show-and-tell. Not only are the systems on track to ship in the second half of 2026 (yes, including the new Groq component) – "probably in the Q3 timeframe" – Microsoft has *already* installed one such rack in Azure. And what used to take two days to install, now takes *two hours*. As for the rest of the roadmap, 'Rubin Ultra' – the 'tock' to the 'Rubin' 'tick' – is already taping out according to Jensen and set for 2027\. Then comes 'Feynman' in 2028 (after American physicist Richard Feynman). It will be paired with the 'Rosa' (after American physicist Rosalyn Sussman Yalow) CPU and an all-new LPU made with Groq technology, the 'LP40' (no fun scientific naming scheme here, it seems). From here, Jensen hit on [the whole data-centers-in-space thing](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/). But the most interesting [aspect](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nvidia-announces-space-compute-modules-including-vera-rubin/?ref=spyglass.org) may have been how quickly he moved through it – even noting as such. To hear him tell it, there's still a lot of work to do here, most notably with [the conduction/convection issues in the vacuum of space](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%E2%98%84%EF%B8%8F%20Data%20Centers%20in%20Space). He says they have great engineers working on how to do it but it's "very complicated". One suspects it will be pitched as decidedly less complicated [during the SpaceX IPO roadshow](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/)... Far more time was devoted to OpenClaw. Calling it the most successful open source project in history, and just as big of a deal as HTML and Linux, Jensen framed it as the operating system for the "agentic computer". But then he got to the catch: [security](https://thenewstack.io/nemoclaw-openclaw-with-guardrails/?ref=spyglass.org). Which, naturally, is what NVIDIA viewed as their opportunity here – in particular within enterprise. And while 'NemoClaw' is dropping the 'Open' from the name, Jensen says it will still be open, and the fact that they worked with creator Peter Steinberger, who himself of course now works at OpenAI – would seem to give that credence. Still, we're clearly about to see every large company come in with their own solution here – Perplexity already has, and Meta [just did](https://manus.im/blog/manus-my-computer-desktop?ref=spyglass.org) with Manus ([as predicted](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/190826703/claws-out-for-openclaw?ref=spyglass.org)). [Will "open" win here](https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/)? As an aside, this section also brought one of my favorite moments of the keynote as Jensen really had to stretch to turn the 'SaaS' acronym into 'AgaaS'. It took me a minute to figure out what he was saying with "A Gas" – but it's 'Agent-as-a-Service', which of course would more naturally brand itself as 'AaaS'. Butt, well... We stayed on the topic of "open" as Jensen talked up NVIDIA's 'Nemotron' open models, with version 4 in the works, partnering with Black Forest Labs, Cursor, Mistral, Perplexity, Thinking Machines, and others. Honestly, the most interesting bit of this may have been the notion of future companies using token access as a recruiting tool. (Similar to part of Meta's recent MSL pitch for [compute access](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/).) Jensen closed out the keynote with robots. Noting that NVIDIA had been working on self-driving technology for a long time – well before the current AI movement, of course – and now they seem to be right-place/right-time again, with much of the industry [lining up](https://www.theverge.com/tech/895301/nvidia-robotaxi-byd-geely-hyperion-lyft-halos?ref=spyglass.org) with them in time for their own "ChatGPT moment". Oh yes, and Olaf! A clear highlight for either anyone under 10, or with kids under 10, to see a walking/talking character from *Frozen*. For as good as Jensen is on stage, Olaf clearly needs some more reps as the interaction was a bit awkward. Still, of all the things to critique, a working, interactive robot on stage... I'll *let it go*. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-17-at-10.42.55---AM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Maybe You Can’t Just Throw Money at AIHow and why Meta AI and xAI have failed in AI thus far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1173.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_qj7bpiqj7bpiqj7b.png)](https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/) [Firefly Flies AgainSerenity now... animated.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1174.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-16--2026--10_36_57-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/firefly-animated-series/) [Warner Bros Wins the OscarsAnd by proxy, Paramount…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1175.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-16--2026--12_18_58-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/warner-bros-wins-one-battle-oscars/) ### Warner Bros Wins the Oscars URL: https://spyglass.org/warner-bros-wins-one-battle-oscars/ Last updated: 2026-03-16T12:25:02.000Z [Warner Bros wins a record 11 Oscars as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominate awardsFilm studio – currently in acquisition talks with Paramount – earned 11 awards thanks to films by Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-512-1.png)The GuardianCatherine Shoard![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/5765.jpg)](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2026/mar/16/warner-bros-wins-a-record-11-oscars-as-one-battle-after-another-and-sinners-dominate-awards?ref=spyglass.org) One studio to rule them all last night... > Warner Bros, the studio currently in the final stages of talks over a buyout by rivals Paramount, has taken a record 11 prizes from the 98th Academy Awards. > > It ties the record for most wins by a studio at the Academy Awards with MGM, who took that number in 1959 with Ben-Hur, Paramount for 1997’s Titanic and New Line Cinema with The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003\. That outfit was later absorbed into Warner Bros. Implied, but not explicit here: Warner Bros' tally was arguably more impressive because it wasn't just riding the coattails of one movie that dominated as those other studios did in their historic nights. Yes, *One Battle After Another* was the big winner – [and rightfully so, IMO](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/) – with six wins, but *Sinners* came in with four big wins. And, of course, *Weapons* had its own big win in acting. It points to just how dominant of a run Warner Bros had [in 2025](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/185430406/2026-oscar-nominations?ref=spyglass.org) – including at the box office, where they were incredibly beating even the mighty Disney until a last-minute surge at the end of the year. And the fact that they pulled it off [while in the midst](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) of [a contentious battle](https://spyglass.org/netflix-calls-paramount-wbd-bluff/) to be bought is even more impressive! Speaking of, this Oscar tally immediately turns Paramount from the biggest loser of the night with **zero** Oscars – though technically you can't *lose* if you weren't even nominated for any Oscars, I guess! – to a huge winner. Sure, at the end of the day the Oscars are still just sort of [a silly awards show](https://spyglass.org/oscars-2024/). But without question, it's the one with [the most clout](https://spyglass.org/oppenheimer-oscar/) and with that, comes [cultural relevancy and cachet](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/). Paramount is the studio that had less of that than any other studio in 2025 and is buying the studio that had the most of it. Of course, none of that equates to the actual and literal bottom line. [Here's Kyle Buchanan writing about the night for The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/movies/one-battle-after-another-oscar-best-picture.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Unlike last year’s big winner “Anora,” one of the lowest-grossing films to ever take best picture, “One Battle After Another” grossed a hefty $209 million worldwide. That’s significantly more than Anderson’s past efforts like “There Will Be Blood” and “Phantom Thread,” but because of its reported $130 million budget and huge marketing costs, the film did not make its money back at the box office. While Paramount is getting good prestige value here, [it doesn't exactly equate](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) into actual value thanks to Hollywood's [often upside-down finances](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). See also: [Apple's Oscar win of the night: *F1*](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/). Great movie, [and important for Apple](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) in [many ways](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-rights/). But not when it comes to [that bottom line](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/). On the other hand, both *Sinners* and *Weapons* were [wildly profitable](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-052-monopoly-pieces/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8E%9E%EF%B8%8F%20%E2%80%98Sinners%E2%80%99%20Is%20a%20Box%20Office%20Success%20%28With%20a%20Big%20Asterisk%29) at the box office, so there's that. Netflix, meanwhile, walked away with seven wins, the only other studio to take home multiple Oscars; tied for [their best showing ever](https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/netflix-2026-oscar-winners/?ref=spyglass.org) at the awards. In a different world, they just racked up an unprecedented *18* Oscars thanks to their [agreed-to-be-acquired](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) new studio. Instead, Paramount Skydance vaulted them as the only entity with more wins. For the low, low price of [$111B](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [One Box Office Battle After Another‘One Battle After Another’ is by all accounts fantastic. The marketing hasn’t been.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1170.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OBAA-banner-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1172.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) [Big Cinema Strikes Back‘Oppenheimer’ Reigns at Oscars With Seven Wins, Including Best Picture and Director: Full Winners ListThe 2024 Oscar winners are being revealed, with ‘Oppenheimer’ taking home 7 awards.VarietyBrent Lang No big surprises in this year’s Academy Awards.1 Still, I think it was a good thing for both the show![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1171.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Oppenheimer-Bomb-EW-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/oppenheimer-oscar/) ### Firefly Flies Again URL: https://spyglass.org/firefly-animated-series/ Last updated: 2026-03-16T10:53:55.000Z [Nathan Fillion Says ‘Firefly’ Animated Series In DevelopmentNathan Fillion says ‘Firefly’ animated series is in development with costars to voice their original roles. Concept art revealed.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-53.png)DeadlineRosy Cordero![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/T8DFIRE_FE006.jpg)](https://deadline.com/2026/03/nathan-fillion-firefly-animated-series-development-1236754122/?ref=spyglass.org) Well, it's not the full-on live-action reboot that many of us have been dreaming about for [years](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/19/netflix-cult-hits/?ref=spyglass.org), but it's something that perhaps is far more feasible at this point: > [*Firefly*](https://deadline.com/tag/firefly/?ref=spyglass.org) fans are in for a treat. > > [Nathan Fillion](https://deadline.com/tag/nathan-fillion/?ref=spyglass.org) has just revealed at Awesome Con that an animated *Firefly* series is in advanced development based on the beloved cult sci-fi franchise—and Deadline has the details. > > Fillion spoke on a panel at the Washington, D.C. event and live taping of his “Once We Were Spacemen” podcast alongside co-stars [Alan Tudyk](https://deadline.com/tag/alan-tudyk/?ref=spyglass.org), [Gina Torres](https://deadline.com/tag/gina-torres/?ref=spyglass.org), Jewel Staite, [Morena Baccarin](https://deadline.com/tag/morena-baccarin/?ref=spyglass.org), Sean Maher, and [Summer Glau](https://deadline.com/tag/summer-glau/?ref=spyglass.org), all of whom are expected to reprise their roles. Adam Baldwin, who played Jayne Cobb, will also lend his voice to the project. Yes, they're getting the whole band back together.[1](#one) Well, aside from creator Joss Whedon, for obvious and unfortunate reasons. Though he [apparently did](https://nerdist.com/article/is-joss-whedon-involved-in-the-new-firefly-series-no/?ref=spyglass.org) give his "blessing" to the project. Sounds like the script is done and the stage set thusly: > The proposed series is set in the timeline between the original 2002 television run and its 2005 feature film continuation, *Serenity,* expanding the universe while preserving continuity with the established lore. Early concept art has been developed in collaboration with the Oscar and Emmy-award-winning [animation](https://deadline.com/tag/animation/?ref=spyglass.org) studio ShadowMachine, which can be found below. The fully assembled package is expected to be taken out to buyers shortly. This seems smart. If you're not going to do a live-action reboot, perhaps lean in to something that would be impossible (well, without some major de-aging tech and/or full-on AI, which would just piss everyone off). With animation, it obviously doesn't matter if you're using the same cast for a story set 20+ years ago. Otherwise you'd be more or less forced to do a story set 20+ years after the events of the movie. And it allows them to bring back at least one key character who was killed in *Serenity*... As for *where* this will play/stream, that's unclear. Fillion production banner is driving it with 20th Television – from what used to be 20th Century Fox. That entity is obviously owned by Disney now, so presumably Disney+ would be the front-runner to stream this just given the rights, but they could sell it, I suppose. And it's slightly more complicated given that Universal actually owns the film rights, though given this is a series set before the film, they should be in the clear? Almost exactly 15 years ago, *Firefly* was my jumping off point for an idea I had for Netflix: [saving cancelled cult hits](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/19/netflix-cult-hits/?ref=spyglass.org). This was [just as Netflix was kicking off](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/18/killing-cable/?ref=spyglass.org) their own content production and it seemed to me like it could be an easy way to attract natural viewers. Netflix and others ended up doing just that – I also mentioned the notion of bringing back *Arrested Development*, which is *exactly* [what Netflix did](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrested%5FDevelopment?ref=spyglass.org) – but Firefly was left adrift... Until now! Personally, I'm still going to entertain the possibility of a live-action revamp and perhaps this animated attempt helps that along... We're a long way from the days of a cancelled TV show using surprising popularity on DVD to make a movie. [Another Netflix Content Idea: Saving Cancelled Cult Hits | TechCrunchYesterday, I laid out why the new Netflix original content plan could be a game-changer in terms of television content and the ultimate disruption of cable. But it still all depends on if the show(s) they pick end up being hits. It appears that Netflix’s first bet, House of Cards, is just about as good of a bet as you could make — but it’s still no guarantee. Here’s an idea that could be much more of a guarantee: saving cult hits. Each year, dozens of shows on network and cable television get cancelled. Most of these cancellations are for good reason. But every once in a while the hammer comes down on a show that’s considered to be a cult hit — or one that could turn out to be a real hit, if given more time. The problem, of course, is that these shows often don’t have the massive viewership numbers to sell a large amount of advertising against. But that model doesn’t apply to Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/cropped-cropped-favicon-gradient-5.png)TechCrunchMG Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fff.jpg)](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/19/netflix-cult-hits/?ref=spyglass.org) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-16--2026--10_36_57-AM.png) --- 1 Sadly without Ron Glass, who played Shepherd Book, but passed away a decade ago. [↩](#) ### Maybe You Can't Just Throw Money at AI URL: https://spyglass.org/money-in-problems-out/ Last updated: 2026-06-28T19:18:34.000Z Last July I wrote a post entitled "[**We're Seemingly Still in the 'Throw Money At It' AI Era...**](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/)" The crux was that given Elon Musk's ability to get xAI's Grok models up to technical speed and the fact that Mark Zuckerberg was completely rebooting Meta's AI efforts seemingly showed that all it took to catch up in AI maybe the ability to spend massive amounts of money, fast. Well, as it turns out, that may not be all it takes... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### 'iPhone Fold' as 'iPad Mini' Folded URL: https://spyglass.org/iphone-fold-ipad-mini-ios/ Last updated: 2026-07-04T07:06:13.000Z The biggest question I had about the forthcoming 'iPhone Fold' is [which OS it would run](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/). Given that it's still an iPhone, you'd assume iOS. But that would presumably require some new flavor of iOS given the whole foldable screen element. That mixed with the fact that it sure looked like the interior screen, when unfolded, would be similar to an iPad mini led me [to wonder](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch) if we might get a true hybrid: iOS on the outside, iPadOS on the inside. A sort of mullet device. Not so, says [Mark Gurman in his latest report about the device for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/apple-s-foldable-iphone-to-feature-ipad-like-interface-when-opened?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple is developing new iOS app layouts and revamping its core iPhone programs to add sidebars along the left edge of the screen, similar to many of its iPad apps. Developers will also be able to adapt their iPhone software for the new interface, which will use proportions similar to an iPad in landscape mode. > > Despite offering an iPad-like app experience, the foldable iPhone will run the standard iOS — not iPadOS, the company’s tablet operating system. This means it will retain a simpler multitasking system, rather than adopting the more desktop-like interface introduced in iPadOS 26\. It also won’t run existing iPad apps out of the box. > > While the foldable iPhone won’t run several windows at once like an iPad mini, it will be able to show two apps side by side. That matches a key feature of the foldable phones offered by Samsung, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and others. So the experience will be "iPad-like" but not actually iPadOS. Instead, we get a version of iOS that *looks* more like iPadOS, but without the true windowed multitasking (though we can argue about how "true" that system is, even now). This sounds potentially confusing for iPad owners – in particular if the inner screen truly is iPad mini-like in size – if it looks like an iPad, but can't do iPad things. But it undoubtedly would have been more confusing to run two different OSes with different functionalities, simply depending on if the device was folded or not. And there's no real point in running standard iOS (just scaled to a new screen size) without taking advantage of the new screen real estate in some way. So this sounds like the compromise: iPadOS-looking iOS. I'm just as curious about the actual form-factor here, because it continues to sound – [and *look*](https://9to5mac.com/2026/03/08/iphone-fold-design-leaks-in-purported-3d-cad-rendering-files/?ref=spyglass.org), [via CAD leaks](https://x.com/SonnyDickson/status/2030841645827252668?ref=spyglass.org)! – like it will be quite different from other foldables to date. I've had a few versions of the Pixel Fold now, [which I like](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/) and has gotten better with each iteration, but it's really just exactly what it sounds like: a fairly standard smartphone that can unfold into a bigger-screen smartphone. Yes, it's interesting that it's a more square-like experience inside – and yes, it can do the app side-by-side thing – but it still just feels like a smartphone. [I think](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch) there's a pretty good chance that the 'iPhone Fold' (if Apple even calls it that – all bets are off after the [wildcard 'MacBook Neo' naming scheme](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/)) will actually feel like something a bit different than just a "foldable iPhone" given the form factor. In my mind at least, it almost seems more like a 'iPhone mini' on the outside, while yes, an 'iPad mini' on the inside. But this new iOS will be key to the experience, of course. Does Apple tailor it to leverage those new screens in ways that differentiate it from a "regular" iPhone? [I suspect they might!](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) Maybe that front screen becomes your sort of "vital" apps/widgets screen. Things you always open and/or apps for fast actions. While inside, that's where you do your real "work" (or play, I suppose!). I obviously won't even [pretend](https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/) that I'm torn on getting one. I'll certainly have to to see what it's like. [I am a bit torn](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) on leaving the old, trusty "standard" iPhone form-factor behind, but would I really "dual-wield" like I'm [Ahsoka](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahsoka%5FTano?ref=spyglass.org) or something? That's a pretty expensive proposition! Speaking of, there's also some new leaks around potential pricing for the device. Are you ready? Take a deep breath... According to the [Weibo-based leaker Instant Digital](https://weibo.com/5143897135/QvL2ApDll?ref=spyglass.org) – who had [a strong track-record on such things](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/03/12/iphone-fold-these-three-storage-capacities/?ref=spyglass.org) – the range will be from $2,320 to $2,900, depending on storage options (from 256GB up to 1TB). That's, um, quite a bit above my early (and obvious) $1,999 starting point guess [I made a year ago](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/). Of course, those numbers are extrapolated from the more rounded prices in Chinese Yuan by the leaker. When I asked AI to extrapolate how those implied numbers might translate into USD, sure enough, the $1,999 starting price point seems quite likely. Then again, given everything going on with chip shortages and pricing issues around memory... who knows. Perhaps not even Apple just yet. Would anyone buy a $1,999 iPhone? I mean, yes, it's Apple. And some already do, as Apple hit that mark with the 2TB iPhone 17 Pro Max option. What about a fully-loaded 'iPhone Fold' at, say, $2,999? It wasn't that long ago that we were debating the viability of a $1,000 iPhone. That seems quaint now. The iPhone Pro models are huge hits for Apple. There's undoubtedly still room to grow – and importantly for Apple, grow that [ASP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average%5Fselling%5Fprice?ref=spyglass.org). **One more thing:** As [I wondered in my prediction post](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch) for the year, what if any sort of newfangled experience for the 'iPhone Fold' also included a new type of *accessory*? Maybe an 'Apple Pencil Mini' – heaven forbid, the actual 'Apple Stylus'?! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Thin Is In Before a Foldable Is OutGaming out some ‘iPhone Air’ and ‘iPhone Fold’ options…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1163.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_iphone_that_folds_like_a_book_--ar_21_--profil_2bb22a01-1fbc-4da3-afb3-40b387e43d7f_0-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) [The 3 iPhone ProblemAn interesting dilemma coming soon to iPhone users: choice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1165.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_hand_holding_up_a_foldable_iphone_cartoon_--v_7_1cbf5c2a-ef09-42d1-9f9c-2985eae01333_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) [10 Big Predictions for 2026Here we are again, the final day of the year. Just like last year, I thought I’d use the countdown to 2026 to jot down some predictions. Last year, I thought most of my predictions wouldn’t happen, but actually many ended up being at least partially correct, so I’ll go![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1164.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-31--2025--11_53_25-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) ### Fixing the Windows in a Broken Home URL: https://spyglass.org/theatrical-windows-tech/ Last updated: 2026-06-28T19:17:14.000Z One obvious side effect of Netflix's ([ultimately failed](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/)) bid to buy Warner Bros? A revisiting of the discussion about theatrical windows. Given that Netflix was [promising 45-days](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) for Warner's movie slate going forward, well, if you give a mouse a cookie... they're going to want a cow. [As Brooks Barnes writes in *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/business/universal-studios-movie-theaters-exclusive-streaming.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Universal said on Thursday that it would immediately begin guaranteeing theaters a minimum of five weekends of exclusive play for new movies, ending a pandemic-era policy that guaranteed only three. Starting in January, Universal will move to a minimum of seven weekends of guaranteed exclusivity. Yes, that's a move from 3 weekends to 5 weekends immediately. With a move all the way to *7 weekends* – roughly the 45 days guarantee Netflix was making – early next year. We are so back... to where we started. Hollywood will say – and *is* saying – this is just a correction for the mistake made during the pandemic. Almost exactly [six years ago](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/business/media/coronavirus-universal-home-movies.html?ref=spyglass.org), with the world in lock-down mode, it was none other than Universal that took a hammer to the theatrical window. They announced that *Trolls World Tour* would be released for rent at home [the same day it launched in theaters](https://500ish.com/broken-glass-b30aa0572228?ref=spyglass.org) – if theaters were even open by then. Other studios followed suit, perhaps most famously Warner Bros, which [went Full Monty](https://500ish.com/warners-offer-to-theaters-is-this-nothing-15b12207018a?ref=spyglass.org), much to the chagrin of many filmmakers. This seemingly destroyed Christopher Nolan's relationship with the studio, over *Tenet* – a movie which was just as audibly indecipherable at home as it would have been in a movie theater. Even Disney was forced to follow suit and as such, faced a suit from Scarlett Johansson, [which helped end](https://500ish.com/black-widow-black-window-black-eye-4bbcc43be7be?ref=spyglass.org) the brief Bob Chapek-era at the studio. It was a rocky time, to say the least. This also [put Universal at war with AMC](https://500ish.com/trolls-world-tour-indeed-8f79fc9ce836?ref=spyglass.org). Once the head of the largest theater chain, Adam Aron, read what then-NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell – now, incidentally the president at Paramount Skydance ([at least for now](https://deadline.com/2026/03/jeff-shell-sued-paramount-future-cloudy-1236743018/?ref=spyglass.org)) – [said about the success of *Trolls* on on PVOD](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trolls-world-tour-breaks-digital-records-and-charts-a-new-path-for-hollywood-11588066202?ref=spyglass.org) after their decision, [he went nuclear](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/amc-theatres-refuses-play-universal-films-wake-trolls-world-tour-1292327/?ref=spyglass.org): > "It is disappointing to us, but Jeff’s comments as to Universal’s unilateral actions and intentions have left us with no choice. Therefore, effective immediately AMC will no longer play any Universal movies in any of our theaters in the United States, Europe or the Middle East." People may have been a bit on edge... But eventually, even AMC had to recognize the reality of the situation, and suddenly we had a de-facto [17-day window](https://500ish.com/edge-of-17-69bf7719be0?ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, reading AMC's comments today, and you wouldn't know any of that happened: > AMC Entertainment, the country’s largest theater operator, called Universal’s shift in strategy “extraordinarily beneficial” in a statement, adding that it “strengthens the entire theatrical ecosystem.” Here's the thing, it did happen. And while it may have been a bit of an overreaction in hindsight, it also should have served as a good wake up call for Hollywood. The theatrical model had been [slowly dying for years](https://500ish.com/the-future-of-cinema-2e0240d83507?ref=spyglass.org), but it was masked by inflation. The industry kept touting ever-growing box office numbers without any actual context. Had they simply reported numbers of butts in seats, the numbers would have [looked bad](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) (and worse if you cut it by [per-capita moviegoing](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org)). COVID, as it did in so many industries, simply accelerated a trend that was already in process. And now we're back. Having learned seemingly nothing! The main problem for Hollywood is that the box office still isn't nearly back to those pre-pandemic numbers, *even when masked by inflation*. And again, they'd argue the windows are the issue. To be clear, it will undoubtedly help a bit – obviously, they're creating a faux supply/demand situation, propping up a marketplace.[1](#one) But it's not addressing the underlying issue: seeing movies in a movie theater doesn't have the hold over the general public as it once did. And it never will again. Windows or not. That's not to say movies – or Hollywood itself – is dead. In many ways, movies are more alive than ever. But that's thanks to streaming – and yes, smartphones ([sorry, Mr. Nolan](https://www.indiewire.com/features/general/christopher-nolan-interview-dunkirk-netflix-1201857101/?ref=spyglass.org)). We used to have to watch a movie in a movie theater in order to see it. Now we can watch it basically anywhere. To pretty much anyone that would look like progress. But not to Hollywood. And certainly not to theater owners. But actually, buried a bit in this news is an element that suggests Hollywoods' heads might not be as buried in the sand as it seems... > One important wrinkle: Universal’s corporate sibling, Focus Features, which makes smaller-budget specialty films like “Hamnet” and “Bugonia,” will not change its theatrical exclusivity policy. Three weekends, or about 17 days, is all that Focus will continue to promise. > > NBCUniversal said specialty films — one of the most challenged genres at the box office — required special handling. For some of these movies, a theatrical release has become valuable mostly as a marketing tool for what Hollywood calls “premium video on demand,” the sales window that immediately follows theatrical exclusivity. Focus’s movies also tend to open in a handful of theaters at first, expanding gradually to more markets as word-of-mouth demand builds. > > “Universal remains a theatrical-first studio,” Ms. Langley said. “That’s proven by the breadth of our slate, our commitment to our filmmakers and the ongoing investments we make in the creative community.” In other words, they're acknowledging that all movies are not created equal. Actually, that's not fair. The movies themselves may be, but [the natural audiences for those movies is not](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). That's not harsh, that's reality. And again, it has been reality for years and years and years. In the olden days, people would go to the movies to see basically anything because they had little else in terms of choice. These days, we all have the opposite problem. As a result, only a handful of movies really warrant a long theatrical run. It's not a comment on quality or anything else, it's just reality. It's like the age-old epistemological question: if a studio put a movie in theaters and no one goes to see it, did it actually play? These days, we can ensure that the movie plays in a place and in a way that people will actually see it. [We have the technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FSix%5FMillion%5FDollar%5FMan?ref=spyglass.org). Well, technically, Netflix has the best of that technology. [But Hollywood didn't want to leverage it](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) to the fullest extent – including, notably, [helping with theatrical](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/). In hindsight, I believe [this will look incredibly stupid](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). But I get it. The key now is the acknowledgment that this new/old seven-week window isn't some sort of commandment handed down from the old gods of Hollywood, it's simply one path for a certain type of movie. That's how I choose to read Donna Langley's statement. That she knows every movie can't do seven weeks in theaters. *Obviously*. What if it bombs opening weekend? Do you let the stink linger for six more weeks? Of course not. This is simply a guidance. And a game plan for [the "tentpole" movies](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) which will launch under the Universal banner. Other, smaller films will likely go through sub-studios, like Focus. This is a good first step for every studio. And, by the way, Netflix should *still* come at this from the opposite end: if a movie is likely to do well in theaters, [Netflix should push it wide](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) (though yes, they'll have to partner to do that now without acquiring Warner's business). [I've been saying this](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) long before they tried to buy into theatrical. Now that they *aren't*, it's still the same rationale. I mean, maybe not *seven week* theatrical runs now that Ted Sarandos doesn't have to be held to such standards. But still, something. [Where it makes sense!](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/) And where it doesn't, for all studios, they should go to PVOD right away! Or streaming! [It can even salvage clunkers!](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/) This is all so obvious, and yet Hollywood fights it. Because it's not the way of the past, [it's the way of the future](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4%5FPbx9mvWPY&ref=spyglass.org). Netflix could have shown them the way more clearly, now they'll have to do it themselves. But it's the same path. Fine, fix the window. Just fix the house too! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/yad07nopfdob1-1.jpg) --- 1 [I also do think](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=A%20box%20office%20boom%2C%20but...) that 2026 is primed to be a good year at the box office just by nature of the slate. Hollywood will do a victory lap around this as if it wasn't mostly about timing of some blockbusters aligning of course... [↩](#) ### Microsoft Steals a Stargate URL: https://spyglass.org/back-to-abilene/ Last updated: 2026-06-25T13:49:30.000Z "I'm here in case you succeed." That's what Colonel Jack O'Neill (Kurt Russell) [tells](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNF4NoqI31U&ref=spyglass.org) Dr. Catherine Langford (Viveca Lindfors) when she asks why he's a part of the 'Stargate' mission in[ the 1994 film](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stargate%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org) of the same name. The implication, of course, is that in the unlikely event that the Stargate works, and opens a portal to another world, he's the fall-back option in case something goes wrong. Well, the stakes are lower, but [the tech project](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) named after the movie – the massive AI data center build-out spearheaded by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank – is no less complicated. Case in point: [the many fits and starts](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) of the real life initiative. And the latest twist and turn perhaps points to a very fundamental challenge of the project – and the [broader data center build-outs](https://spyglass.org/stargate-project-rivals/) in general. The latest news dropped last week. Last Thursday, [*Bloomberg* reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/oracle-and-openai-end-plans-to-expand-flagship-data-center?srnd=homepage-americas&ref=spyglass.org) that OpenAI was backing out of a planned expansion of a data center project in Abilene, Texas. If you've heard of Abilene in recent months it's likely one of two things: either you've been listening to[ a lot of Ella Langley](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLOheGDwD%5F0&ref=spyglass.org), or you've been following the aforementioned 'Stargate' project – that's the location of the first such site... While the initial phase is at least partially operational – months later than anyone hoped, certainly Elon Musk (we'll get to that) – this story is about a new, adjacent piece of land that was meant to expand this initial Stargate into a campus with nearly 2GW in capacity. So why would OpenAI back out? It's complicated, but also seemingly not that complicated. [A follow-up report by *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-infrastructure/real-reason-openai-walked-away-oracle-stargate-expansion-abilene?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) revealed that OpenAI realized that by the time this new Stargate expansion was online (undoubtedly colored by how long it has taken to get the first campus up and running), the company's needs would have shifted to NVIDIA's latest 'Vera Rubin' chips, and this project was earmarked for the older (current) 'Grace Blackwell' chips. Now, OpenAI undoubtedly could have mixed-and-matched the older with the newer chips, but the reporting suggests that they preferred a more "pure-play" Rubin project. Undoubtedly, there are efficiency reasons at play, and this industry, especially at the moment, is [all about efficiencies](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). Said another way: OpenAI didn't want to pay for a hybrid build-out, when they could go forward with one of their [myriad other data center projects](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) around the world that they could custom tailor for just the newer chips. Further, there's a world in which these projects are taking so long with so many unforeseen delays across many variables, that this Abilene site may end up full of chips *two* generations behind the state of the art when it's fully complete – as *CNBC* illustrated with the fun recent headline: ["Oracle is building yesterday’s data centers with tomorrow’s debt"](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/oracle-is-building-yesterdays-data-centers-with-tomorrows-debt.html?ref=spyglass.org). And [let's not even talk](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) about [data centers in space](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%E2%98%84%EF%B8%8F%20Data%20Centers%20in%20Space) here.[1](#one) Though Elon Musk [would love to](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/) (we'll come back to him)... Chalk this all up to the fact that NVIDIA [accelerated](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-blackwell-gpus/) their roadmap a couple years back to push major chip upgrades more often. On paper, that sounds great. But in practice, this is potentially a huge headache for these build-outs. Again, given everything involved here – land, permitting, construction, power, etc – if there's any hope to have such projects online in the next couple of years, they need to start *right now*. But right now, would mean buying Blackwell chips, or perhaps hoping to line-up your pre-orders for Rubin chips. But by the time you're actually installing them, there's a good chance they'll be the older chips! So you might hope to wait on that NVIDIA component, but given that it's um, *the most critical component* of the entire project, you probably want to know what you're building for. It's not as simple as building the scaffolding and plugging and playing. NVIDIA tends to change these systems quite a bit generation-to-generation. Hence why OpenAI doesn't want to mix-and-match! Also, the key players on the infrastructure side of many of these builds need these chips lined up to help secure the debt financing to do the actual projects! You've heard about [how circular](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) many tech deals are becoming, but this is perhaps the most circular element. The [financing](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) to build out these data centers can be reliant on having the NVIDIA chips in place as collateral. But again, those chips are likely already to be last generation (at least) by the time they're installed in said data center! I won't say "out of date" but only because that's probably [the biggest debate](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) in all of this at the moment: just how much the older generations of NVIDIA chips are worth. I mean that both literally for would-be resale value, but also how much they can be used in continued AI workloads. The answers to these questions are all across the board, hence why the depreciation timelines are as well. The real answer is something along the lines of: [nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). But someone will know at some point! And that may either give the industry a boost – hey, these older NVIDIA chips are still good for this vital part of AI! – or lead to a crash – hey, these older NVIDIA chips are pretty worthless with the newer ones out there... [We'll see](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/)! Of course, it won't be quite so black-and-white. And that perhaps speaks to why Microsoft and Meta are said to be circling the Abilene site now. At least Meta, it seems, is being pushed to look at the site by, who else? NVIDIA. Meanwhile, Microsoft can probably argue that they simply need the scaffolding in place – that land, permitting, and power are perhaps more important than the chips themselves. And they might not be wrong there! But also, they might be! Yet given their other cloud needs beyond frontier AI training, they can probably put such data centers to work regardless. Ditto with Meta, to a lesser extent. Technically, that would shift this project from a Stargate into something else.[2](#two) But that might be fitting given that the first Stargate next door also didn't really start life as a Stargate either. That was a site Oracle was leasing from an ownership group led by Blue Owl. If you've heard of Blue Owl, you're really in the weeds here. But [you may be hearing *a lot more* about them soon](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/), depending how this all shakes out. But I digress... Anyway, the first Abilene site (that became the first Stargate) was originally a project [Oracle was leasing out to... Elon Musk](https://spyglass.org/from-space-balls-to-stargate/)! Yes, he originally envisioned it could be his data center for xAI.[3](#three) But when the build times started to slip, he backed out of that site and [took matters into his own hands](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) – perhaps literally based on various reporting about his initial build-out in Tennessee (queue up that Ella Langley song again!). Guess who stepped in when Musk stepped out? [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/)! Technically, they were doing so on behalf of OpenAI, who needed any and all capacity at that point (and still, it seems). While Microsoft ended up as a [small part](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) of what would become Stargate, it started life as a project between OpenAI and their main benefactor at the time. When [that benefactor changed](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) (in no small part because of [OpenAI's insatiable data center demand](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/))... In walked Masa Son, hand-in-hand with Sam Altman. Musk's OpenAI co-founder [saw an opening](https://spyglass.org/the-500b-phone-call/) as he also walked into the White House (just as [Musk was walking out](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/)!) with [an even grander plan](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) for a project named after a certain 1994 movie... That's just some fun backstory. But it also showcases how circular this all is – and [what a layer cake we have here](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/). All of these players are [beyond intertwined](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/). Fast-forward back to present day. After OpenAI pulled out of this Stargate expansion, Oracle apparently tried to find another taker, but couldn't – and that, perhaps mixed with [all the questions surrounding them](https://www.ft.com/content/ce1c8fd9-5aae-4026-a883-aeba00b6e9e0?ref=spyglass.org) with regard to debt being used for data centers (including, interestingly, [by Blue Owl!](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=Is%20Blue%20Owl%20backing%20away%20from%20the%20data%20center%20project%20in%20Michigan%20a%20blue%2Dowl%2Din%2Dthe%2Dcoalmine%20situation%2C%20or%20just%20specifically%20about%20Oracle%27s%20debt%20load%3F%20Or%20both%3F%20It%27s%20seemingly%20the%20first%20sign%20of%20prudence%20in%20the%20market%20%E2%80%93%20this%20is%20the%20key%20partner%20for%20the%20first%20Stargate%20and%20Meta%27s%20%27Hyperion%27.%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)), seemingly led them to back out here too. That's when NVIDIA stepped in, [the ultimate backstop](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/). It's perhaps less about this particular site and more about the high level notion that if any of these massive data center projects go up in smoke... [well, poof](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/)! At the same time, demand for any and all data centers remains such that someone is undoubtedly going to step in here. It may even end up as a bidding war between Meta and Microsoft, which would be fun. Two vultures circling the carcass of a wounded data center project. Or perhaps the better analogy is a Stargate blown up by Colonel Jack O'Neill as things started to go sideways... Who will salvage it? "It doesn't take a crystal ball to see..." --- **Update March 24, 2026**: And it now [sounds like](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/microsoft-to-rent-texas-data-center-dropped-by-oracle-openai?ref=spyglass.org) it was in fact Microsoft that [swooped in](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/metaverse-chrous-metaverse?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Texas%20%28well%2C%20Crusoe%29%20has%20apparently%20chosen%20Microsoft%20%28to%20pick%20up%20the%20Abilene%20site%20which%20Oracle%20and%20OpenAI%20put%20down%29.%20Yes%2C%20it%20was%20meant%20to%20be%20an%20expansion%20of%20the%20neighboring%20Stargate%20project.%20Yes%2C%20this%20is%20awkward%20given%20the%20history%20between%20all%20the%20parties.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) to steal away this Stargate project. I've updated the headline accordingly. --- 1 Though the sci-fi naming possibilities there – [my god, it's full of stars](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oALxLNOhI6I&ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) 2 What other fun sci-fi branding might they come up with? [↩](#) 3 The project that would [come to be known as 'Colossus'](https://spyglass.org/spending-apples-cash/#:~:text=xAI%20apparently%20just,%5BFortune%5D)... [↩](#) ### OpenAI is Busy Both Bundling and Unbundling URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-is-busy-both-bundling-and-unbundling/ Last updated: 2026-03-25T20:03:37.000Z It used to be the case that just about the hardest thing in the world was to get someone to download a new app. But in 2026, given the connection speeds we all enjoy, the actual downloading process is negligible. The hardest thing now is getting them to actually *use* the app. Such is the story with Sora. As Stephanie Palazzolo and Sri Muppidi of *The Information* [report](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-plans-launch-sora-video-ai-chatgpt-strategy-shift?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > OpenAI plans to soon launch its Sora AI-generated video capabilities in ChatGPT, according to people with knowledge of the effort. The strategy shift could increase the chatbot’s usage as well as its costs. > > The move comes about five months after OpenAI released a Sora mobile app, which lets people quickly create videos of themselves and other people or animals doing mesmerizing or humorous acts. The app’s look and feel mimics the style of TikTok but doesn’t appear to have gained wide appeal. Well, it *did* gain wide appeal, [reaching](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) the top overall position in the App Store and lingering in the top 10 for quite some time. The problem was *staying* there. And that's in no small part because the millions who originally downloaded the app largely stopped using it. At least regularly. I should know, I'm one of those users. To be clear, when I do find myself opening the app [every once in a while](https://sora.chatgpt.com/profile/mgs?ref=spyglass.org), I still get sucked in. There is a lot of content that ranges from amusing to hysterical – and from creative to copyrighted – but there's also less of it now, at least from people I know.[1](#one) And unlike TikTok, it was set up with some core social components in mind, notably through "cameos" ([the problematic feature name due to its own trademark issues!](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-blocked-using-cameo-name-amid-trademark-lawsuit-2026-02-17/?ref=spyglass.org)). And whereas Sam Altman himself humorously filled any social voids in the early days of the product, now it feels more like [nth-tier celebrities trying](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) to latch on to an early movement. ****See:** [****update below**](#update)****...** Again, the movement has largely stopped, at least in that the app is no longer "breaking out" as it once was, and as such, doesn't have much of a shot at another mainstream moment. At least not naturally. If and when [Disney content gets added into the mix](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/), there will likely be another [viral swarm](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) back to the app. But unless OpenAI can keep that up at a regular cadence, they're probably going to need another answer here. And that answer is clearly to bundle it back into ChatGPT itself. Yes, yes, we're right back to the "bundle and unbundle" quote that [I turn to so often](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/). But here, the unique dynamic with OpenAI is that they're constantly bundling and unbundling at the same time. And I think it's probably the right strategy, because it's still the early days of AI and no one is quite sure what will work and what will not. Success is often stumbled into, from ChatGPT on down. That's the thing, without question, ChatGPT is that mainstream hit. As it nears a billion active users, the service has become synonymous with AI itself. If you asked my older daughter about AI, it would be the first thing she mentions. I asked her about Gemini and Claude the other day, she didn't know what those were. But she's now constantly asking me to "ask ChatGPT" something (as she's too young to have access on her own). Despite the comically clunky name, it has become the "Kleenex" of the industry, at least for now. And that's brand value that money cannot buy. So of course, as a company, you want to leverage that. I still think it was the right call to launch Sora as a stand-alone app to start. And I think the early viral success bears that out. But that also doesn't mean you can't pivot if and when that virality flames out. If it's the case that the real value of Sora is less a TikTok-style feed and more about sharing amongst smaller social circles, you obviously want to tweak the app to ease that, as OpenAI has. But what if it's actually [more about creation itself](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/)? At that point, you might pivot again to move it back within ChatGPT. As the article notes, this may also be an attempt by OpenAI to boost ChatGPT above that elusive 1B WAU mark. But that doesn't mean it's the wrong thing to do and try. Especially as ChatGPT itself [continues to morph](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) from a simple chat interface into something more robust. At the same time, my sense is that the group-chat element of ChatGPT itself isn't really working in a major way. That may be based on my own anecdata, but the fact that OpenAI isn't touting it constantly seemingly suggests it's not some huge hit – in the way that say, early Sora was.[2](#two) The answer here may be the opposite: to give the group chat feature its own app/service. That alone won't be enough, of course – again, it's hard to get people to download let alone *use* new apps – but OpenAI is [great at coming up with](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) these little product moments to spur usage. They could and perhaps should try that with group chats. [Because I do think there's something that could end up important there](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/). I mean, "chat" is right there in the name! And you know what could pair well with Group ChatGPT? Sora. Meanwhile, all eyes and hands internally would appear to be on Codex at the moment, as OpenAI tries to combat the rise of Claude Code (and Cursor, etc). Maxwell Zeff has a big story about that effort that [just hit in *Wired*.](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-codex-race-claude-code/?ref=spyglass.org) It's a good read about how OpenAI missed the initial opportunity and what they're doing now to try to correct that. One of the big high-level takeaways would seem to be that many inside the company assumed that coding would just be a part of ChatGPT, and not necessarily its own product. And that may or may not have been colored by the fact that Microsoft was so heavily using their models for coding within GitHub. Since their ([at the time](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/)) core partner ([and benefactor!](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/)) was tackling that use-case head-on, OpenAI focused on the myriad other things they wanted to work on. And by the time they [recognized](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/163692792/chatgpt-gets-an-ai-coding-agent?ref=spyglass.org) the mistake, and tried to buy Windsurf (after Cursor turned down their overtures), Microsoft stepped in to [scuttle](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) that opportunity. [Ouch](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/). Anyway, now there's Codex, which is right there, front-and-center in ChatGPT's sidebar. But clicking it takes you to yes, another app. At the same time, OpenAI is hustling to sell Codex into enterprises. And, unsurprisingly, they're using their own strength to make inroads: > Several major enterprises have signed on to use Codex too. “The fact that ChatGPT is synonymous with AI gives us a massive advantage in the B2B market,” says [Fidji Simo](https://www.wired.com/story/fidji-simo-is-openais-other-ceo-and-she-swears-shell-make-chatgpt-profitable/?ref=spyglass.org), OpenAI’s CEO of applications. “Companies want to use technologies their workers are already familiar with.” OpenAI’s strategy to sell Codex is largely based on packaging it in with ChatGPT and other OpenAI products, Simo said. Ah yes, the old *bundling* playbook! [Deemed illegal at times](https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/31/microsoft-office-teams-europe-unbundle/?ref=spyglass.org) for companies like Microsoft because it's so effective! Next up? [The government](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/)! Another product that's rather oddly unbundled at the moment? Translation. You'd think that would be an easy one to include in the ChatGPT bundle, but OpenAI is clearly using it [as lead gen](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/apple-may-have-their-television-after?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=While%20it%20seems%20weird%20that%20OpenAI%20would%20launch%20a%20stand%2Dalone%20ChatGPT%20Translate%20site%20%E2%80%94%20what%20happened%20to%20the%20%22Code%20Red%22%20and%20focus%3F!%20%E2%80%94%20I%20guess%20it%20sort%20of%20makes%20sense%20as%20a%20lead%2Dgen%20tool...%20%5BAndroid%20Authority%5D). As a wedge to expose new customers to the magic of AI. [Health could be next](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/i/183928356/ai-health-by-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org). Simo has already [talked about](https://fidjisimo.substack.com/p/chatgpt-health) the high-level strategy here of making it a part of ChatGPT to start (in its own area). But don't be surprised if they try it as its own service/app at some point. Obviously, it will depend on how it works within the broader app and what features resonate with users. Don't forget apps! As in third-party services that are bundled to run within ChatGPT. OpenAI tried an 'app store' approach before for GPTs [that didn't really work](https://spyglass.org/stop-making-app-stores/). And this [doesn't seem to be working so well either](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-betting-chatgpt-apps-people-need-find-first?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), thus far. All of this points to the obvious downside of bundling everything within one app – it gets crowded, and thus confusing, fast! OpenAI has already [shown some Microsoftian tendencies](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) with their model [drop-down menus](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) – since [alleviated](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/), thankfully – and cramming a ton of features into a Frankenstein's Monster-like product experience is obviously the fear here. At the same time, you have the most downloaded and most used AI app in the world. You should use that to your advantage, right? (Especially when you're [trying to launch ads](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) within that app...) Again, I think the answer and strategy here has to be trying a bunch of different things. Sora as a stand-alone app, Sora within ChatGPT. Codex as its own app, Codex more tightly integrated. Group Chats within ChatGPT, Group Chats perhaps outside. Etc. And this experimentation will necessarily need to expand as OpenAI breaks into [actual hardware](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). They've tweaked voice mode within ChatGPT a few times, but when it's [the main method of interaction](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) with any newfangled device, how does that change the product and UI of ChatGPT itself? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/sch.png) --- **Update March 25, 2026**: Well, so much for that. So much for Sora! [So Long, SoraAn OpenAI Code Red? More like a Code Dead…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1215.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-7.52.28---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/sora-loser/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [ChatGPT Starts to Break the Bounds of ChatA necessary product evolution is underway.…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1159.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--05_20_17-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1162.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) [Group ChatGPTOpenAI has a shot at layering social on top of their AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1160.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dudegpt-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/) [Sora’s Slop Hits DifferentIt’s about creative comedy creation, stupid![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1161.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_ai_slop_content_--ar_169_--v_7_145f3cbb-2d2b-4461-b215-c60b89a53de4_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) [Meta Is Unbundling... AgainThe strategy behind the stand-alone apps for Reels and Meta AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1158.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_facebook_icon_unpacking_a_giant_box_of_stuff_throwing_9466aef8-0e0c-412d-8076-73fd5c8720b0_2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) --- 1 I might also note that it's still only available in a handful of countries – one is not even the UK yet... [↩](#) 2 Ditto with Atlas, the web browser [launched to much fanfare](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/). They've been awfully quiet about it of late... [↩](#) ### Apple's Hail Mary, Anthropic's Savior URL: https://spyglass.org/apples-hail-mary-anthropics-savior/ Last updated: 2026-06-25T13:48:49.000Z Look, do I realistically think Apple is going to buy Anthropic? I mean, no. It would be by far the largest M&A deal of all time – undoubtedly *more than double* the next largest deal,[1](#one) and certainly more than *triple* the recently insanely large ([and insanely leveraged](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/)) Paramount Skydance/Warner Bros Discovery deal. Anthropic is currently valued at $380B. Apple's largest deal ever was *two orders of magnitude* below that. And that deal, Beats, was done over a decade ago.[2](#two) This is simply not a deal that Apple – or probably anyone – does in a normal environment. But we're not in a normal environment... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple is Writing Product Checks That Siri Can't Cash URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-homepad-delay-siri/ Last updated: 2026-06-25T13:48:10.000Z [Apple Postpones Smart Home Display Launch as It Waits for New AI and SiriApple Inc.’s artificial intelligence struggles are rippling through its product plans, forcing the company to delay a long-in-the-works smart home display until later this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-29.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-20.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/apple-postpones-smart-home-display-launch-as-it-waits-for-new-ai-and-siri?ref=spyglass.org) The beatings will continue until Siri improves, it seems: > Apple Inc.’s artificial intelligence struggles are rippling through its product plans, forcing the company to delay a long-in-the-works smart home display until later this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. > > The product, code-named J490, was first scheduled for spring 2025 but was postponed to let the company finish work on a new Siri digital assistant — an integral piece of the device’s interface. > > Apple had then planned to release the display this month, when it hoped the new Siri would be ready, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. With Siri [delayed again](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/apple-s-ios-26-4-siri-update-runs-into-snags-in-internal-testing-ios-26-5-27?ref=spyglass.org), Apple is now postponing the smart home device once more. Likely until the fall, Gurman reports (though [first leaked](https://9to5mac.com/2026/03/06/apples-homepad-gets-launch-timing-update-via-leaker/?ref=spyglass.org) several days prior [by Kosutami](https://x.com/kosutami%5Fito/status/2029686750973747552?s=61&t=a-bloX1n-TZ50ofqhetO1A&ref=spyglass.org)). Perhaps tied to iOS/tvOS 27\. Yes, a device initially targeted for 2025 will likely end up shipping with an OS tied to 2027\. And not because the hardware isn't ready – always the hardest part of shipping any product, of course – but because of the *software*. And not even really the OS, but rather one aspect of the OS: Siri. And it hardly seems like the 'HomePad' is alone in this regard. Previous reports had updated Apple TV and HomePod hardware ready to roll, only not to roll because Siri is not ready to roll. [Heads have already rolled](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) as a result of [this debacle](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) years in the making, so we'll have to settle for eyes rolling here. Look, I remain [cautiously](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) [optimistic](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) about the updated version of Siri, [solely](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) because Google is [providing](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) the underlying AI technology and they've [proven](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) to be more than [competent](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) in this regard. But clearly – cl*e*arly – Apple is still having issues implementing it. Which, [as previously discussed](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/), probably shouldn't have been a huge surprise – you can't just swap and slot this stuff in, as there are about a million edge cases that will break, as Amazon [clearly](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) learned [the hard way too](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) – but it does lead to the question of why Apple thought they could still ship something like this so soon after the Siri [brain transplant](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/)? Of course, they might say that there weren't announced plans to ship any of this. Which is technically true, but really just [continues to point to](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) why the constant, detailed leaks, mainly from Gurman, are such a black eye and problem for the company. Gurman has a high enough hit rate on both grand and granular plans within Apple that's there's simply no reason not to trust his reporting on matters such as product launch strategies and timing. And so the world – at least the business/Apple fan world that watches the company closely – fully believes that Apple intended to ship the 'HomePad' in Spring 2025\. But Siri issues saw this slip until Spring 2026, with the first Gemini-powered version of Siri. But with that delayed, now we're looking at the Fall of 2026\. And it's certainly reasonable to wonder if we won't see any kind of updated Siri functionality until then (though presumably still talked about at WWDC in June – after decidedly [*not* being talked about](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) at [last year's WWDC](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/) – after the fiasco that was [WWDC 2024](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2024/)). Anyway, this clearly showcases the very real downsides and downstream effects of [bad strategic decisions](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) made [years ago](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/). Because Apple so badly bungled their AI strategy in 2023 and 2024, they're missing shipping targets for actual products in 2025 and 2026\. Are they going to have to upgrade the 'HomePad' with a newer chip than they intended to use for the product because *two* generations of Apple Silicon will have passed? Ditto with the new HomePods and Apple TV? That obviously has very real bottom line impact. This also puts a lot more pressure on the 'HomePad' device itself, which a new category for Apple. Because they've held back for so long to get it right, it better be right? [I'm still not clear](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/) what [the actual use case](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/) is [supposed to be](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/). Seemingly an iPad designed to be the main computing hub in the home, but many already use regular iPads – and *iPhones* for this. The ability to apparently use FaceID to tailor the device to who is nearby seems clever, but they could have and should have added such account switching to the iPad years ago. It also sounds like a HomePod with a screen to mirror what Amazon and Google have been offering, but it's not like the HomePod itself has blown the doors off the smart home, with a bad initial strategy there also forcing Apple to [retrench](https://500ish.com/i-was-right-that-apple-was-wrong-f877b73f6444?ref=spyglass.org) and [reboot](https://500ish.com/homepod-everlasting-cc5d8438013c?ref=spyglass.org) once. Oh but this [will have AI](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/)! I mean... I hope so? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Cannot Be SiriousWhat’s worse: that Apple can’t fix Siri, or that they can’t stop the leaks about how they can’t fix Siri?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1151.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-12--2026--02_08_30-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) [The AI Will Come Out TomorrowAlexa and Siri struggle to get out the door in the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1152.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-16-15.50.37---A-group-of-frustrated-people-yelling-at-an-Amazon-Echo-device-in-a-modern-living-room.-Their-facial-expressions-show-anger-and-confusion--with-one-per-1-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) [Apple’s New ‘Hip to be Square’ Home DeviceWhat am I missing here?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1153.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_square_ipad_on_a_mount_--ar_43_--v_6.1_e049999a-ce49-46ab-bf0a-b2e123a9f210_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) ### The Lobster URL: https://spyglass.org/openclaw-versus-closed-claude/ Last updated: 2026-06-20T07:24:42.000Z Greetings and crustaceans from 'ClawCon', as relayed [by Hayden Field for *The Verge*](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/890517/openclaw-clawcon-meetup-nyc-open-source-ai?ref=spyglass.org): > The woman at the door wore a plush lobster headdress. > > She sat in the front hallway of a multistory event venue in Manhattan, beside a bundle of wristbands. If she granted you one, the world of ClawCon beckoned behind her — full of vibey pink and purple lighting, lobster claw headbands, multicolored name tags, sponsor information stations, and a demo stage underneath a skylight. Hundreds of people were gathered to celebrate OpenClaw, the AI assistant platform created by Peter Steinberger in November 2025. I always enjoy these boots-on-the-ground reports from such events. They tend to overemphasize the ridiculousness of them for obvious reasons – and that seems especially easy and apt when the movement has both a mascot and when that mascot is as ridiculous as a lobster. > OpenClaw (previously known as Clawdbot and Moltbot) has quickly become popular in the tech industry for being open-source, in contrast with AI agent services from big labs like Google, OpenAI, and others. Practically, it’s still an unpredictable tool that can pose major security risks. But this community sees it as a grassroots crusade and a noble pursuit, offering an escape hatch from an industry controlled by a handful of people at leading AI companies. Reading this report, I'm thrown back in time to a few different eras of tech. In recent times there was [all the silliness around "web3"](https://500ish.com/hyp3-1d7ad4924015?ref=spyglass.org) – and the brief "NFT" craze was perhaps most symbolic of the situation. It undoubtedly started out as earnest and innocent enough, but quickly – [as expected](https://mgs.blog/living-in-a-hucksters-paradise-2c776ec0f2a5?ref=spyglass.org) – it was overtaken by a lot of grifters trying to make quick bucks. And the whole thing sank under the weight of the various schemes as rugs were pulled. This OpenClaw movement certainly seems far more legitimate, and it feels like an interesting and in some ways natural offshoot of the broader AI revolution. Some people want to be excited about AI (to be clear, others [*absolutely do not want* to be excited about AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/), which is also an interesting dynamic at play) but are wary of Big Tech (and "Big AI" – the OpenAIs, Anthropics, and xAIs valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars as "startups") controlling the situation and potentially the entire future. OpenClaw has slipped right in as an ointment for that ailment – to the point where it has even survived those comical branding shifts. Still, I'm reminded more of an earlier era, when social networks were rising in prominence and power. Once Facebook overtook MySpace, in came [OpenSocial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenSocial?ref=spyglass.org) to try to combat their inevitability. Granted, that project arose out of Google itself. And the cynical read at the time – [including my own](https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/22/google-plus-opensocial-facebook/?ref=spyglass.org) – was that they were backing it mainly to ensure that Facebook didn't overtake them as the main character of the internet thus hurting their rising dominance over advertising. Still, there were many "true believers" in the movement to try to combat Facebook and ensure that social networking wasn't locked down and in to one company. And the fact that Peter Steinberger [has now](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/the-awkward-key-to-ai-going-forward?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Seemingly%20another%20damning%20indictment%20of%20Meta%E2%80%99s%20%28new%29%20AI%20strategy%20that%20Zuck%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20land%20the%20OpenClaw%20guy%20despite%20offering%20more%20money...%20%5BSources%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) [gone to work at OpenAI](https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/openclaw-creator-peter-steinberger-joins-openai/?ref=spyglass.org) (with the promise that OpenClaw itself would remain open source and supported) brings the parallels a bit closer. All of that is to say: as was the case with OpenSocial, I'm skeptical that this movement lasts and gets any real legs beyond these sort of fun, quirky stories. This sentiment will make people angry, because such things tend to almost be more religious in nature. And I know and like a lot of the people involved in this particular movement. And I even like the overall sentiment here, about putting the future of AI in the hands of the people – I mean, how could you not? (Well, actually a number of players would undoubtedly consider this dangerous, and certainly we've already seen some of the dangers made possible by a tool like OpenClaw.) I'm just trying to give an honest read and prediction for how this all plays out. On paper, people love "open". It naturally sounds "winning" to the masses. Power to the people and not the corporations, and all that. But in reality, we see open get pummeled by closed, perfected systems time and time again. Not always, but often. And especially, when the stakes and the scale are at AI levels. People tend to fall in love with great movements but end up marrying great products. And great products tend to rise out of companies with a greater control over the technology. The "open" stuff built by a community may start strong but often degrades into a mess of contradictory ideas and simply slow progress. Open also has a funny way of [coming back to bite](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) [time and](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) [time again](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). There's a reason why Meta is [turning their back on "open"](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/). And why "OpenAI" is anything but...[1](#one) Perhaps it will be different with AI going forward because there are so many good models created by so many different players – some of which are open and some of which are closed. It does feel like there's a window here for others who can aggregate and orchestrate on top of these models right now, which is something [we're seeing at the moment](https://thoughts.spyglass.org/p/a-deal-of-paramount-importance?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Perplexity%20appears%20to%20be%20pivoting%20to%20%22orchestration%22%20%28so%20hot%20right%20now%29%20in%20order%20to%20take%20on%20OpenClaw.%20I%20will%20say%2C%20there%20may%20be%20an%20opening%20for%20a%20well%20done%20model%20aggregator%2C%20at%20least%20for%20now%E2%80%A6%20%5BDeepView%5D) even beyond OpenClaw. But such things also tend to shift over time and we may end up with just a few "winning" models as the costs become untenable – especially if and when there's some sort of [downturn in the market](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/). Obviously, it could shift the other way if the "open" models themselves win out and proliferate. But we've also been hearing that for a few years at this point. And despite DeepSeek being a "moment", [it hardly ended up being](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/) one of the "Sputnik" variety. We'll see if their new, impending model changes any equations. But my bet would be that a year from now, pretty much everyone is still using ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude. Because again, those are great *products*. And I also imagine that each of those "Big" players has their own answers for some of the elements of OpenClaw that prove popular. We're [already seeing it with Anthropic](https://ucstrategies.com/news/claude-code-remote-just-changed-the-game-is-openclaw-already-obsolete/?ref=spyglass.org) – perhaps because they fumbled the ball a bit with the artist formerly known as 'Clawdbot', which was called that, and had to change that name, [for a reason](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ronschmelzer/2026/01/27/viral-ai-sidekick-clawdbot-changes-name-to-moltbot-and-sheds-its-old-skin/?ref=spyglass.org)... While the OpenClaw movement is fun, [headlines aside](https://www.businessinsider.com/clawdbot-ai-mac-mini-2026-1?ref=spyglass.org), the masses are simply not going to be rushing out to buy Mac minis on which to run their own instances. Just like 99.99999% of people don't run their own web servers even though they technically could. And again, most people should not be running their own OpenClaw bots, as it's a recipe for various security disasters. That mixed with the aforementioned tendency for people to gravitate towards good, easy-to-use products makes the end game fairly obvious here. And it's not [a social network for OpenClaw bots](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/). The only wild card may be the aforementioned feelings about AI in general. Again, more so than perhaps any other technology in the past – [aside from maybe Google Glass](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) – there's seemingly a real natural hesitancy here. Certainly in the US market, which is obviously at the forefront of the technology and at the same time, nearly every story you read about AI is about [the fear over job displacement](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/)... But I still have a hard time thinking that cohort of people is going to gravitate towards OpenClaw as the answer. In a way, we may be seeing a shift towards Claude itself because of [the blow up](https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/) between [the government and Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/). As a result of that, people may be starting to see Anthropic as the more "ethical" solution in AI, which may help some over that initial hump of skepticism... As we go further down the path of this AI revolution, [I continue to wonder](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) if and when we're all going to settle down with our one true AI. It's possible we end up in a world where we use one for work and one for play, as it were, but given that the aforementioned big players are increasingly trying to do it all, I think picking one seems more likely. Though if the ClawCon attendees are forced into such relationships, perhaps they'll revolt and instead demand to be turned into an animal of their choosing. Just like the plot for [a certain absurdist movie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FLobster?ref=spyglass.org)... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/The_Lobster-1.webp) 👇 ****A few recent posts in** [***The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/)****...** [When Knees Buckle, then Bend, then BreakOn Anthropic’s war with the Department of War…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1097.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/438356-theon-greyjoy-reek-played-alfie-allen.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/) [The Death of the 30% CutGoogle ends the Play Store insanity, putting the pressure on Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1098.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-5--2026--04_26_54-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/) [There Are Signs...Private Credit, CapEx, Interest Rates, War, and AI Disruption – oh my!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1099.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-4--2026--01_51_09-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/) --- 1 Yes, yes, they [still sort of have some efforts](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/). [↩](#) ### When Knees Buckle, then Bend, then Break URL: https://spyglass.org/amodei-another-day/ Last updated: 2026-06-20T07:23:54.000Z As painful as it is to watch Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in [this clip](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HAQTMMzHUd8?ref=spyglass.org) with *Economist* editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes, you have to imagine it's infinitely more painful for him to be there, giving the interview. A few days ago, he was out there – well, on Slack – shooting off defiant messages like he's Theon Greyjoy. Then, as if before our eyes, he transforms into Reek. That's harsh. But the transformation is that, um, stark. The reality here is that Amodei had no choice. His mistake was in thinking that he did... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### AI in a Time of War URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-in-a-time-of-war/ Last updated: 2026-03-06T12:05:42.000Z The stakes have been raised. While AI has been the key topic of discussion in [all of my past chats](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) with Alex Kantrowitz on his [*Big Technology*](https://www.bigtechnology.com/?ref=spyglass.org) *Podcast*, the latest angles including, of course, *war*, are obviously more important than ever. I had not yet written about the **Anthropic vs. Department of War** situation when we recorded this on Monday, but the conversation helped form [some thoughts to write about](https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/). Notably, while it's wild that this "battle" is unfolding during *actual* battles in the Middle East, that's also undoubtedly related. Because [as we now know](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/us-military-relying-on-ai-as-key-tool-to-speed-iran-operations?ref=spyglass.org), Anthropic's models are pretty crucial to the execution of the operation overseas. At the same time, how much of this spat actually stems from the fact that the administration and Anthropic clearly just don't like one another, largely due to philosophical differences across the board? That has been made pretty clear over time and so this situation may just have been the straw that broke the camel's back (undoubtedly exacerbated by the aforementioned stakes here). And so while Dario Amodei may clearly be open to (and hoping to) talk about this [more](https://www.ft.com/content/97bda2ef-fc06-40b3-a867-f61a711b148b?ref=spyglass.org), the President [may be done](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/technology/anthropic-supply-chain-risk-defense-department.html?ref=spyglass.org). We'll see... One thing to look to: [Anthropic's Big Tech benefactors](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/). They'll be heavily incentivized to lobby on Anthropic's behalf – and [they already are](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/big-tech-group-tells-pentagons-hegseth-they-are-concerned-about-declaring-2026-03-04/?ref=spyglass.org). Of course, all of this is helping to drive some level of growth for Anthropic – with Claude now [the number one app in the App Store](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2028459287274471896?ref=spyglass.org) for the first time, ever. And obviously while this is mostly bad for Anthropic's core enterprise business, it seems to have some benefits on the consumer side – even if it's just virtue signaling. Alex was reminded of when [Apple stood up to the FBI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%E2%80%93FBI%5Fencryption%5Fdispute?ref=spyglass.org) a decade ago around device encryption and security. Here, beyond the actual war use cases, mass surveillance is obviously Anthropic's key talking point. On the opposite end of the spectrum, here comes Sam Altman ready and willing to do a deal for OpenAI. That was entirely predictable – as was the subsequent backlash to Altman's maneuver. He has tried to spin them as peace brokers here, but clearly Amodei isn't buying that! "[Mendacious](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/read-anthropic-ceos-memo-attacking-openais-mendacious-pentagon-announcement?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)" is his word. From there, we switch gears a bit to talk about the latest with regard to **Apple and AI**. Yes, Siri seems a bit behind schedule – [yes, again](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) – and so we're not seeing any signs of "New Siri", powered by Gemini, in the wild yet. But I'm still fairly optimistic that Apple is actually [on the right path now](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/), and may end up looking quite strong in their overall AI position thanks to [their device strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). It's not just that they're said to be working on *three* new AI-focused wearables, it's that [the iPhone will be the key](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) to making them actually work well. And that's an advantage that no one else, except maybe Google and Samsung, have. As more devices start rolling out, [we can probably expect](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) Mark Zuckerberg to keep bringing this up, hoping to draw the eye of regulators. Perhaps Sam Altman will get involved here as well, as [OpenAI's first device nears](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/)... As for Apple's rumored new AI devices, I would expect the AirPods (with cameras) to be the most popular, [if they can figure out](https://spyglass.org/airpods-with-cameras/) how to implement the camera system well, without making them too much more expensive than they already are. Apple should also be able to [one-up Humane](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) ([RIP](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/)). And yes, [perhaps Meta](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/), the current clubhouse leaders thanks to their Ray-Ban partnership. There's already [some backlash bubbling up](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/) there as Meta tries to cram more AI into the wearables. Can we avoid [a "Glasshole" 2.0 situation](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/)? Or will it take Apple, a company far more trusted, to come into the market... And what's [Amazon doing with OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/)? Is the play for Alexa to become a sort of layer above a bunch of LLMs, including from both Anthropic and OpenAI? Amazon the AI aggregator? But it can't all be about AI all the time as we close by quickly running through [what happened with](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) **Paramount Skydance snatching Warner Bros away from Netflix**. Was this just great [deal-making](https://spyglass.org/netflix-calls-paramount-wbd-bluff/) by WBD CEO David Zaslav, or something else? Certainly, [Paramount needs Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) more than Netflix does – and in a way, it was good to see them walk away so quickly. It shows real discipline. That's something [Hollywood could use more of](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/), but I fear will not get it with this deal – even with the inevitable wave of layoffs coming. I suspect Hollywood will look back upon this and [wish Netflix would have won](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). And who knows, perhaps a future DoJ will look back upon this deal. But there might not be much to look at by then, as [Hollywood continues to shrink](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/)... 👇 ****Previous discussions...** [AI Bots Are MoltingA chat about Moltbook, NVIDIA’s ”$100B” bet, an Anti-Google AI alliance, the new IPO race, and Apple’s earnings.…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1079.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-4--2026--01_43_43-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-bots-are-molting/) [AI’s Perception ProblemsA chat about AI needing their Steve Jobs figure, AI’s chaotic companies, and some other predictions for 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1080.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--10_38_21-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) [With Both Apple & AI, Timing Remains EverythingA discussion that bridges and connects those worlds…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1081.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_x8d9o5x8d9o5x8d9-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/) ### The Death of the 30% Cut URL: https://spyglass.org/play-store-30-percent-cut-app-store/ Last updated: 2026-06-20T07:23:29.000Z There's a lot going on in the world at the moment. Still, I'm sort of surprised that [one story](https://www.techmeme.com/260304/p32?ref=spyglass.org#a260304p32) hasn't gotten more play this week: Google completely upended the business model for mobile apps. Granted, they sort of *had* to do this because [they lost a court case](https://spyglass.org/google-epic-fail/) (and subsequent appeal) against Epic, and as a result, the judge was forcing them to change the Play Store in pretty fundamental ways. Still, they're actually making changes ahead of when they technically need to – because the judge has not yet approved these proposed changes. And yes, that move seems tied to ensuring that he does accept the changes (and yes, they've already [altered them once](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/) to make them [more likely](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/google-proposes-to-share-play-store-catalog-to-resolve-case?ref=spyglass.org) to be accepted). Still, it's a big deal! With potentially bigger ramifications down the road. The 30% cut is now effectively dead... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### MacBook Neo: Whoa URL: https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/ Last updated: 2026-06-15T18:08:32.000Z My initial gut reaction upon seeing the details of the new [MacBook Neo](https://www.apple.com/macbook-neo/?ref=spyglass.org) was that this was the smartest thing Apple has done in years. [While I noted](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2029197792892121104?ref=spyglass.org) that it was not an overstatement, it was also noted on social media. The takes are necessarily hot. So I've sat on it for a few hours and allowed the take too cool a bit. Out of the oven, I still stand by it: *this is the smartest move Apple has made in years*. Very specifically one element of the MacBook Neo: $599. When the product was first rumored in June of last year, [my guess was that](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/) it would be priced at $799\. Not shockingly low, but at $200 below their then-entry level MacBook Air, it felt very Apple. Yes, [their M1 MacBook Air sold in partnership with Walmart](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/) was $699, but that was a different (older) product in a different (wider) channel.[1](#one) After years and years of watching Apple, I felt confident enough in the $799 price that [I doubled down on it in November](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/): > While no specific price is given in this report aside from "well under $1,000", the big question is how low Apple will go here. They have a lot of room below the current $999 M4 MacBook Air – which is $899 with a student discount. Is $799 low enough for this product? Do they have to meet the $699 price of the Walmart MacBooks? Could they do $599 to get it in line with the iPad + Keyboards? \*Do they dare do $499\* to get their machines actually competitive with Chromebooks? > > Let's not get carried away. > > I guessed the $799 price point back in June and I'm sticking to that. Perhaps $699 with that student discount. And Apple would frame it, [as they always do](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/), as "not the cheapest, but the best" (in that general segment). Well, Apple can still surprise me, as it turns out.[2](#two) And they seemingly swallowed their pride – and margins – and went with $599.[3](#three) Actually, let's get carried away: it's $499 for students. Boom. And that's key because this is a machine built for students. This isn't a MacBook for you or me – we already have plenty of those – this is clearly for our children and perhaps parents. I know it sounds belittling to call it "My First MacBook" but the colored aluminum sort of fits... Apple made this a no-brainer buy for so many. [I've long been baffled](https://500ish.com/apple-cedes-735192326da4?ref=spyglass.org) by the notion that Apple would cede the education market – one they long dominated when I was a kid – to cheap Windows devices and [more recently, Chromebooks](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/). Yes, they [clearly thought](https://500ish.com/an-apple-education-cfe02dd4e13?ref=spyglass.org) the iPad could be the answer there. But that always felt a bit off. Sure, the iPad is a brilliant device and great for some things in classrooms. But for a lot of work, including school work, you're going to want a "real" computer. Try as they might [with keyboards and trackpads](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/), Apple has [not been able to](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) morph the iPad into that real computer. And they keep insisting they don't want to! (Even if their constant tweaks [suggest otherwise](https://spyglass.org/touchscreen-macbook-toaster-fridge/).) That's fine. But again, it doesn't work in the classroom. Even if it works 90% of the time, it needs to work 100% of the time for students. And the MacBook Neo can. *Finally*. **A few more quick thoughts** as I await the machine to actually give it a go. These are mostly nits, and they don't matter – again, all the really matters is the price... First and foremost, I wish there was an option to upgrade to 16GB of RAM. I know I'm not the target audience for this, but I suspect that a lot of the students buying these may want to play around with some localized AI in the not-too-distant future, and I doubt 8GB is [going to cut it](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/). While 8GB has never seemed like an issue on the many iPhones that have it,[4](#four) I'm genuinely curious how it feels on a Mac (when paired with the A18 Pro iPhone chip). I suspect I'll feel it, but mainly because [I'm coming from 32GB](https://spyglass.org/m4-macbook-air-blue-thoughts/) – if I were at 16GB, perhaps not as much. Also, I don't do too much on my portable machine beyond using the web browser and an AI app here or there, so... we'll see! While [I've long hoped for](https://500ish.com/the-macbook-error-af2dfc9b811f?ref=spyglass.org) a return to the 12" MacBook form factor, I suspect this will be close enough. It's smaller than the 13.6" screen on the MacBook Air and the footprint is obviously going to be a bit smaller. The weight is the same – [*the exact same*](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2029201183647093108?ref=spyglass.org) – as the smaller MacBook Air, which is clearly on purpose. I guess Apple didn't want to make that some sort of debate. I'm happy about the return to colorful portable machines – [exactly what I hoped for/wrote about two years ago](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/). I might have liked to see them a bit more bold – perhaps even NEOn? – but this is a good start. [Obviously](https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/), I'm going with "Citrus". No green machine though, as had been rumored...[5](#five) (And really, how much different is "Blush" from Rose Gold and Citrus from "Gold" – "Indigo" just gives Apple yet another shade of blue/gray/black?) Sort of strange to only put Touch ID on the 512GB storage upgraded model (at $699)? It's such a key feature for not just convenience but security too? I guess we know where Apple drew the margin line! While the battery life trade-off (versus the Air) is only said to be two hours on Apple's main specs, drilling down, it seems like it may be *up to 4 hours less time* doing regular "wireless web" stuff. 11 hours still should be enough for most people, but it's worth calling out. Again, we'll see! As for the name, I like it. I think 'MacBook' [would have](https://500ish.com/those-airy-macbooks-b1d8f4e47ba6?ref=spyglass.org) made a lot of sense for this machine too, but it's a bit old school and bland. I like trying something new and it will clearly help with marketing. As Don Draper would tell you, [the most important idea in advertising is "new"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJkVRsZuDP8&ref=spyglass.org). So why not put it in the name? That plus being priced to move... Apple is going to sell a shit ton of the MacBook Neo. **One more thing:** No Tim Cook? [No problem](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/). If you still had [any questions about](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) who is up next to lead Apple, consider those put to rest. John Ternus was up there, on stage, live. (At least in NYC.) Sure, it was a smaller event, [but an important one](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/)! This little colorful thing is gonna be huge for Apple. The first true Ternus Mac? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-4--2026--07_22_06-PM.png) [⌾ Enter The Inner Ring ⌾](#/portal/signup) --- 1 Is that product/partnership now done? They obviously never upgraded it to the M2, let alone M3 chip and we're now on the M5 so... Maybe that deal gave Apple all the data points they needed to make this machine... [↩](#) 2 I'm [reminded when everyone was sure](https://techcrunch.com/2010/01/04/apple-tablet-pricing/?ref=spyglass.org) that the original iPad was going to launch around $1,000, then Steve Jobs comes out on stage with $499\. [A true "boom"](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/8290436183?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 3 One suspects their margins are going to do just fine here... To quote [Jared from *The Big Short*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X18RADltRVQ&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org), "Let's not talk about my margins by the way being nice and fat." [↩](#) 4 And perhaps the 8GB of RAM is directly tied to the A18 Pro chip and the system surrounding it? Again, it was built as an iPhone chip... [↩](#) 5 For the 20th year in a row, everyone read a bit too much into the invite – yes, there's yellow, but there's a lot of green there too... I might note: it was also glowing, sadly no return to those lovely glowing logos, it seems... [↩](#) ### There Are Signs... URL: https://spyglass.org/over-the-ai-rainbow/ Last updated: 2026-06-15T18:08:12.000Z In recent times when we talk about bubbles bursting or total economic collapses, we seem to tie them to so-called "Black Swan Events". Singular, unforeseen situations that bring a seemingly strong system to its knees. COVID. Bear Stearns. 9/11\. Etc. But what if this time is different™ – but really, in that it won't be one thing, but a series of events that brings it all down? Because of recent history, we're all currently trained to look for that one thing. As such, we may be looking right past the many things building up before our very eyes... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### AI Am Become Death URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-nuclear-weapons/ Last updated: 2026-06-12T07:12:41.000Z In a way, it feels like the endless talk about AI over the past few years has been leading up to this moment. The discussions have always ranged from 'is AI just a silly toy?' to 'is AI the end of humanity?' but such talk has flowed between intellectual backroom gatherings, to internet chat rooms, to dinner parties, to comment sections, to company town halls, to social media, and back again. Now here we are with the United States and several other countries actively engaged in armed confrontation – many would call this "war" though no one has declared it – and the AI debate swirls around it. The timing is odd. We now know with certainty that last week the US was preparing to preemptively strike Iran. At the same time, the key cog in that machine, the Department of War (the artist formerly known as the Department of Defense), was also actively engaged in discussions with Anthropic – yes, the AI startup – over the usage of their models for purposes related to national security. I mean maybe, *just maybe*, punt the conversation until a better time? But perhaps it's related, because the US knew these strikes were coming and that some level of Anthropic's technology would be used in them. And because there had been talk that Anthropic was questioning the use of their models in the raid to oust Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela a couple months prior, maybe the DoW wanted to get any usage squared away ahead of this new operation. Or perhaps Anthropic was pressing and the Pentagon, knowing what was in motion, got fed up. Or perhaps they viewed it as a potential point of leverage in such conversations. Who knows. Subsequent reporting will undoubtedly make all the timelines more clear once the smoke literally settles. But for now, this all just seems wild. As the US was ramping up to battle Iran, they were also battling one of their own technology companies. Talking through the situation [with Alex Kantrowitz on his *Big Technology Podcast*](https://pod.link/1522960417/episode/ODM3NmE0MGUtMTY4MS0xMWYxLWJiN2ItYmJmYTNlZTU5Yzdl?ref=spyglass.org) yesterday shook loose a few thoughts that I wanted to jot down. First and foremost, at the highest level, this all really might be as simple as the fact that the current administration and the leadership team at Anthropic, led by co-founder Dario Amodei, just really don't like each other. This disdain isn't a secret, there are plenty of public comments on the matter – in particular from administration officials noting their problems with Amodei's overall ideologies. And in that light, it's even more strange that all of this is happening! Why on Earth is the DoW using Anthropic's models if they're so uncertain about the people building them – *in control of them*? The answer there may lay in their use of other technology from Palantir and Amazon, which integrates Claude. Or it may [simply be](https://www.axios.com/2026/02/24/anthropic-pentagon-claude-hegseth-dario?ref=spyglass.org) that the technology is [*that good*](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2027688699459256626?ref=spyglass.org). Or, perhaps, the government has just been looking for the right excuse to shove them out the door. The timing wasn't great, but this squabbling over legal terms during a build up to war was the final straw. Let's put aside [Occam's razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s%5Frazor?ref=spyglass.org) here a moment, because there's also been an escalation of the argument to a far higher level: that this really is about private company rights, government control, democracy itself, and, of course, nuclear war. Again, I suspect this is more likely a fairly straightforward culture clash and I think the fact that the Pentagon was so quick to sign a deal with OpenAI showcases that further. Again, *in the middle of war*, they're hashing out new contracts with AI players. Perhaps because all they really needed was someone they deemed more palatable to sign their existing contract. [In walks Sam Altman](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-sam-altman-calls-for-de-escalation-in-anthropic-showdown-with-hegseth-03ecbac8?gaa%5Fat=eafs&gaa%5Fn=AWEtsqcTt4jJa4EEpXkBV3gbNQgVUSeSIVxW4bTitxsWDGzNed-L5mMzIAl8foe4kbM%3D&gaa%5Fts=69a6d7df&gaa%5Fsig=S9s7ZQC9SHYHpxJkMD9s56rx-7yJH4V3jo3zaHro56Ok22O8j3tUZwdcDK6A%5Fn%5FyU-aDjJf1hmVVEhzWHILqGw%3D%3D&ref=spyglass.org)... The fact that OpenAI felt the need to [quickly amend](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/03/openai-pentagon-ceo-sam-altman-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org) those documents – undoubtedly after rather immense and immediate public backlash – also points to this idea. Altman said he was simply trying to de-escalate the whole situation by, um, stepping in and taking over the contract from his biggest rival, but he also admits now how bad that looked. ["Sloppy,"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/openai-ceo-says-pentagon-deal-looked-opportunistic-and-sloppy?ref=spyglass.org) as [he puts it](https://x.com/sama/status/2028640354912923739?ref=spyglass.org). Though, naturally, they'll be keeping the contract... Anyway, everyone – including Altman and Amodei – clearly wants to make this into something more than a contract dispute and an inevitable conscious uncoupling between two parties that simply don't like each other. And there are certainly interesting debates to be had there. But I also think it doesn't serve anyone's real interest to blow this completely out of proportion. But that keeps happening with AI *because it's AI*. Depending on the situation and your own vantage point and bias, it's either the answer to *or the problem with* everything. AI will solve productivity. AI will displace jobs. AI will cure disease. AI will lead to more suicide. AI will free us. AI will enslave us. It literally slots in everywhere in both directions depending on the argument to be made. It's the [Rorschach](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach%5Ftest?ref=spyglass.org) um, tech. Reading over [the](https://x.com/sama/status/2028640354912923739?ref=spyglass.org) [reactions](https://www.techmeme.com/260302/p26?ref=spyglass.org#a260302p26) to this latest brouhaha, it seems to me that it may be time to lay to rest one analogy that's very much top of mind and at the center of this again right now: that AI is the new nuclear weapon. From [Altman talking about](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-altman-compares-openai-manhattan-173111355.html?guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAABqpuM3%5FON8NitnEKhobxBCAFqc447bVqOgSsOagf9YOMb9-lu3TSWlm5mszpDgO0w0j8XIwh1jGwSGiSBawk2XCiOtqXQgdUhc3SiB4oh75ze%5F0XEV1AY4GvmooQ4EsyENwRZbfbUuvnrHZC2fl-CFIE41aTQLVlF92dArrKxGh&ref=spyglass.org) the Manhattan Project. To magazines [comparing him to](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/sam-altman-artificial-intelligence-openai-profile.html?ref=spyglass.org) Oppenheimer. To Amodei explicitly [comparing selling](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-20/anthropic-ceo-says-selling-advanced-ai-chips-to-china-is-crazy?ref=spyglass.org) NVIDIA chips to China as selling nukes to North Korea.[1](#one) The entire analogy has escalated too far. And it's [clearly a big part](https://stratechery.com/2026/anthropic-and-alignment/?ref=spyglass.org) of what is fueling this most recent debate. But the comparison breaks down immediately at the most fundamental level. A nuclear weapon is just that, a weapon. It has one purpose – well, maybe two if you consider deterrence a purpose – and that is to destroy. Sure, we could argue that nuclear technology has other purposes, notably power, but come on, that's not the argument or comparison anyone is actually making here – aside from, historically, Iran! This is saying that AI is the biggest threat the world has faced since the advent of the atom bomb during World War II. The difference, of course, is that AI has *positive* uses as well as negative ones. What is the positive usage of an atom bomb? Even if you want to say deterrence, that's decidedly the *opposite* of the usage of it. Ending the war with Japan? Sure, but that wasn't the initial goal and point of the project. It was simply to beat others – notably Germany – to ensure such power didn't end up in the wrong hands. And that's exactly why the comparisons with AI keep getting drawn. Obviously, there are parallels in the build out of AI and the race to AGI – the atom bomb in this scenario. But again, AGI would presumably have *good* uses as well as bad – perhaps even profoundly so. Sure, some people view the race as ensuring that America gets control of such technology first for defensive reasons (which may shift into offensive reasons just as the aforementioned Department of Defense has shifted back into the Department of War). But most of those building it view it as simply trying to move technological and thus, societal, progress forward. Yes, many disagree with those notions. But certainly no one would say that there aren't *any* good, positive uses for AI. Those who are so worried about it simply view the negatives as outweighing the positives – ranging from day-to-day usage to again, *all the way up to the end of humanity*. But even the so-called "doomers" would not deny the potential for positive usage too. Again, what is the positive use case of a nuclear bomb? So can we please de-escalate from that analogy? It just makes everyone crazed – on both sides of such debates. Even now, it's what's guiding a lot of the back-and-forth around if a private company should have some say over what a government can or cannot do. The hypothetical is what if a company controlled a nuke? Or mass produced them? That is, of course, illegal. But we're not talking about making the creation or advancement of AI illegal. We *are* talking about putting some level of guardrails in place, and yes, governments are undoubtedly far behind the ability to reliably to so simply because they act far too slowly and AI moves far too quickly. Still, no one wants to deem work on AI illegal – well, perhaps some do, but no one serious – and that is just not the case with nuclear weapons. So if people really want to use that analogy, they should also be saying that the government should take over control of the build-out of the technology. Many think they should be more involved – including the companies themselves, not least of which because they need money and red tape cut – but no one (again, no one serious) is suggesting the government takes over full control of production. And while some have suggested an actual Manhattan-like Project for AI, it's too late for that. Again, the technology is moving far too fast and any government [would move far too slow](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/). I know it's tempting to use the nuclear analogy especially given the current conflicts – both *actual* conflicts around the world in which the US is engaged at the moment and the political ones happening within the United States itself – and the natural adjacencies. But it also just doesn't seem helpful, in part because of those actual conflicts. AI is not a nuclear weapon and we shouldn't portray it as such. I don't know if the better analogy is [electricity](https://scet.berkeley.edu/ai-is-the-new-electricity-insights-from-dr-andrew-ng/?ref=spyglass.org) or the internet or some other profound breakthrough with both good and bad implications. And I want to acknowledge that it's entirely possible that AI ends up in a state where the bad does outweigh the good. I personally don't believe that will be likely, but it's certainly possible. But I do know there are no good variables with nuclear weapons. We now *start* wars over such beliefs... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/03/nu-1.jpeg) --- 1 Two sub-problems here. First, North Korea already has nuclear weapons, of course. Second, this splinters the analogy because here it's NVIDIA chips which are the nukes, not AI itself, which of course is the byproduct of those chips. [↩](#) ### Increasingly, Big Tech Owns Big AI URL: https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-ai-ownership/ Last updated: 2026-06-12T07:12:07.000Z I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. For all the endless talk about both Big Tech and Big AI, it seems wild how little talk there is around the fact that [increasingly](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/), Big Tech *owns* Big AI. I mean this quite literally, as in ownerships stakes. True, they're not controlling positions, but undoubtedly only because that would actually raise red flags. Instead, these are massive, growing bets that are [clear hedges](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) on their own internal AI work, and to try to counter competitors own similar deals. I've actually [written about this](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) a [number of times](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/). But with the latest OpenAI and Anthropic funding rounds, it's probably worth updating and spelling it out again. Perhaps a bit more clearly this time, with math... The numbers below aren't perfect, in part because there have been so many fundraises for each of these companies at increasingly wild valuations. And there are many types of instruments used from Microsoft's original trading of compute for profit-shares to Amazon's seemingly endless convertible notes into Anthropic. But as these companies start to [creep up](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) on IPOs, [or at least *talk* about it](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/), they're also clearly getting their books more in order. Sure, they may still be [trading compute deals](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/) for investments, but at least equity is also trading hands now. ### OpenAI With the most recent $110B round – likely to jump to $120B in order to give them a post-money valuation of $850B ([as predicted](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/189374007/openais-110b-round?ref=spyglass.org)) – we had Amazon [putting in](https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/) $50B. Granted, it's not that straightforward because they're investing $15B up-front and the additional $35B over time *if certain conditions are met* (one of which may be the aforementioned IPO, but another might be the [far more nebulous AGI](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazons-50-billion-investment-openai-hinge-ipo-agi?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)). Still, that $15B at $850B is roughly 1.8%. If they invest the full $50B, and assuming it's done on the same terms, that number jumps to 5.9%. Also in this round, NVIDIA and SoftBank are putting in $30B each. No, it's not [the $100B that NVIDIA originally said](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) it would be putting in ([over time](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)), which probably would have ([eventually](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/)) bought them up to 15% of OpenAI, but $30B in this round still buys them about 3.5%. And they had [previously](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-closes-66-billion-funding-haul-valuation-157-billion-with-investment-2024-10-02/?ref=spyglass.org) invested in the 2024 round that valued OpenAI at $157B. It's unclear how much they invested, but [early reports](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-nearly-doubles-valuation-to-157-billion-in-funding-round-ee220607?ref=spyglass.org) put it around $100M, so it would have been far less than 1% ownership. Let's just guesstimate that the stake is around 4% now. SoftBank's stake is actually well known thanks to [their own regulatory filings and disclosures](https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260227?ref=spyglass.org). Assuming they complete each of the three $10B tranches here, they're total amount invested would be an incredible $64.6B for a stake of "approximately" 13%. It's not clear if Microsoft is going to participate in this round – they don't seem to be yet, but still could come into the remaining $10B, I suppose. Regardless, they're going to get diluted quite a bit here – their pro rata in this round alone would have been well over $30B! – given that they own [a very well-known 27%](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/) of OpenAI after the [company converted into a PBC](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/). Rough math assuming no (or little) participation likely pushes their stake closer to 23%. So, if my math is correct, in terms of Big Tech (just going to include SoftBank as Big Tech for these purposes here), the cap table looks like: **Microsoft:** 23% **SoftBank:** 13% **Amazon:** 6% **NVIDIA:** 4% Oracle owns some as well. But these four alone seemingly own almost half of OpenAI now (46%) – or will, if all the promised investments happen. If you want to remove SoftBank, we're still looking at 33% – a full 1/3rd of OpenAI owned by Big Tech. ### Anthropic This one is actually a bit more complicated, perhaps because there's historically been less interest in Anthropic's cap table since they've been a "boring" old PBC the entire time! Still, despite the rhetoric around it being important that Big Tech not own the company – perhaps part of the reason Dario and Daniela Amodei broke away from OpenAI in first place when Microsoft was pumping money in – they're all over the cap table here too. While investors (and sovereign wealth funds) put up [the most recent $30B round](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation?ref=spyglass.org) (at $380B post), that's only because it was [kicked off by](https://www.anthropic.com/news/microsoft-nvidia-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnerships?ref=spyglass.org) massive new investments from NVIDIA and Microsoft. Specifically, $10B from the former, and $5B from the latter. That gives NVIDIA a 2.6% stake and Microsoft a 1.3% stake. But they actually join *more* of Big Tech on this cap table here. The two largest shareholders of Anthropic are Amazon and Google. While there had been [some math](https://om.co/2026/02/27/amazon-the-cost-of-ai-lateness/?ref=spyglass.org) floating around [the past few months](https://x.com/deedydas/status/1984643668092076472?ref=spyglass.org) putting those stakes around 8% (including when you ask AI), I believe those numbers are faulty, and based on trying to back into numbers from [stated mark-ups](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/). But it's a far more complicated cap table due to the aforementioned convertible notes over many years. So it's better to go with actual filings – both legal and regulatory. From those, [we know that](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/technology/google-investment-anthropic.html?ref=spyglass.org) Google owned roughly 14% of Anthropic a year ago. They seemingly did not participate in this new round, but like Amazon, may have been doing more convertible notes tied to commercial agreements along the way. Still, we can probably dilute them a bit, down to say 13%. And [in May of last year](https://www.geekwire.com/2025/amazon-deepens-anthropic-ties-with-equity-conversion-adding-billions-to-q1-profit/?ref=spyglass.org), [a 10-Q filing](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001018724/000101872425000036/amzn-20250331.htm&ref=spyglass.org) revealed that Amazon valued their stake at $13.8B – which importantly included *both* their stock and convertible note holdings. If we assume that was valued at the $61.5B valuation at the time, that's a 22.4% stake. (The [more recent 10-K](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001018724/85f3e1a7-bdb4-428e-a980-90bad4117b3d.pdf?ref=spyglass.org) separates the preferred stock FMV – $14.8B – and convertible notes FMV – $45.8B! – again, in part because there have seemingly been several recent notes. That plus this most recent round, which was in process but not completed yet, makes it a bit harder to calculate, but it still points to ownership likely in the 20% range.) Again, with the caveats, this all shapes up to: **Amazon:** 20% **Google:** 13% **NVIDIA:** 2.6% **Microsoft:** 1.3% This adds up to just about 37% ownership stake big Big Tech. Cut another way, when it comes to ownership of the "Big Two" Big AI players: - **Amazon**: 26% (20% Anthropic, 6% OpenAI) - **Microsoft**: 24.3% (23% OpenAI, 1.3% Anthropic) - **Google**: 13% (13% Anthropic, 0% OpenAI) - **SoftBank**: 13% (13% OpenAI, 0% Anthropic) - **NVIDIA**: 6.6% (4% OpenAI, 2.6% Anthropic) ### The Apple Outlier In this light, Apple is [once again](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) glaringly absent. Yes, they [almost](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) bought a stake in – [and a board observer role at](https://spyglass.org/openai-board-apple-microsoft/) – OpenAI ([after their AI partnership](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/)), before [backing away at the last minute](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/). And yes, they [almost](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) cut a massive deal with Anthropic (might it have included an investment, or just a straight-up cash payment?), but instead they're [paired up with... Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). Undoubtedly [not a bad bet](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/), but still, a weird outlier versus their peer group here! Then again, [their entire AI strategy](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/) is obviously an outlier. ### Others Well there is one other absent Big Tech player: **Meta**. They also have their own famously chaotic AI situation at the moment. But while they have some key AI investments, most notably Scale.ai where they own 49% ([in exchange for taking the key team off their hands](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/)) and Safe Superintelligence ([where they took a co-founder of their hands](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/)), they don't have stakes in OpenAI or Anthropic. They do – [or will](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/189040116/meta-clones-openais-amd-deal?ref=spyglass.org) – have a stake in **AMD** though, it seems! (As will OpenAI...) If you want Big Tech to include **Tesla**, obviously they're going to be aligned with [Elon Musk's AI play](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/), and seemingly now have an investment in **xAI** as well (even though their shareholders technically didn't vote for the investment). It's undoubtedly just a matter of time before Tesla is [part of the SpaceX/xAI conglomerate forming in real time](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/). ### Anyway... For all the endless talk of circular deals in AI, it feels like there's relatively little chatter about the fact that Big Tech, which is working on building out their own versions of AI that they hope the masses will use, is also heavily invested in the "pure play" AI players – Big AI – that everyone is increasingly using. There are some downsides with this – see: [Microsoft and OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) – and there are some do-not-cross lines ([at least for now](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/)) perhaps with [OpenAI and Google](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), for example. But for the most part, it seems like some pretty straightforward hedging with BD deal upside to boot! Heads they win, tails they win... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1062.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) [The Curious Case of Amazon’s Anthropic StakeUsing Google’s stake to back into Amazon’s likely much larger stake…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1061.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_exploring_in_the_amazon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_87eed52b-3793-4015-a948-401814463d3c_2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) [Anthropic’s Big Tech Strategy Deepens...And by going deeper with Google, do they risk stepping on NVIDIA’s and Amazon’s toes?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1060.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-24--2025--10_09_54-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/) [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1064.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-11.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) [Collect Them All (AI Edition)An ongoing list of the tangled web of Big Tech investments in Big AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1063.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_gauntlet_showcasing_infinity_stones_cartoon_16_63064780-aac9-46e1-b3d6-091769114cdd_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) ### TUDUMB URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/ Last updated: 2026-06-08T13:32:59.000Z Congratulations on [saying](https://www.techmeme.com/260226/p54?ref=spyglass.org#a260226p54) the biggest number, [Paramount](https://64.media.tumblr.com/4223371793a5797926b2f6230d94be44/1bea64431fd92141-f0/s540x810/64b4c878a52ac28dcab6fc43d9a1387043d9999a.gif?ref=spyglass.org). $111B for a company that a year ago had a market cap of around $20B. For a company that *shrunk* in [their most recent quarter](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/wbd-q4-2025-earnings-big-net-loss-paramount-vs-netflix-1236514816/?ref=spyglass.org), and in fact, *for the entire year*, with revenue down 5% to $37.3B. Paramount may not be buying the Titanic, but only because they already own that IP. At the same time, [kudos](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2027156395666157595?ref=spyglass.org) to Netflix for showing true [discipline](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/189040116/paramounts-new-bid-is-in?ref=spyglass.org). Ted Sarandos kept insisting they would, but that's obviously far easier said than done when you've already talked yourself into a deal which [you thought you had "won"](https://spyglass.org/netflix-calls-paramount-wbd-bluff/). They undoubtedly anticipated somewhat of a circus when they [swooped in and stole it](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) from under the nose of Paramount – [the original bidder, remember](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) – in December, but it turned into a full-on clown show.[1](#one) It turned into a battle against not just Paramount (as expected), but also politicians (to be expected), and Wall Street (probably [should have been expected](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/)). Perhaps the real wild card though was the hatred from Hollywood itself (more on this in a minute). So it was [clearly better](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2027145278944375290?ref=spyglass.org) to swallow that pride and walk away with a nearly $3B check of pure profit. In a way, not bad for a quarter's worth of ~~work~~ distraction. It's almost exactly what Netflix made in *actual* profit last quarter. Predictably, investors *love* this move. Netflix's stock has popped nearly 10% in after-hours trading. The share price had been ground down almost 25% since the deal was announced. The message was clear: you're the present and future of entertainment, why are you putting this albatross around your neck? The *century-old* *past* of entertainment stuck in perpetual decline? At the highest level, it's why Netflix's deal was a surprise in the first place. Sure, you take a look at the deal, because why not? But nothing in Netflix's history suggested that they would take this too seriously. But Ted Sarandos surprised us. Clearly he saw a path to take such a storied legacy and shift it into the future. Netflix has proven their worth as an IP accelerant, what if they bought perhaps the best library available? It's an interesting idea, though I'm still not sure it made any business sense at $83B. At $100+B – the amount Netflix probably would have had to counter with (with a discount for the TV assets they wouldn't be buying, which Paramount will be buying) – I mean... Of course, Netflix could have absorbed such a cost. It's a $400B company (well, before this deal, anyway) – *double* Disney! Paramount Skydance? They're worth $11B. Yes, they're paying almost exactly $100B more than they're worth for WBD. Yes, it's looney. But really, it's leverage. To be clear, Netflix was going to pay for the deal with debt too, but they have a clear path to repay such debts. They have a great, growing business. They don't require the backstop of one of the world's richest men, who just so happens to be the father of the CEO. How on Earth is Paramount going to pay down this debt? I'm tempted to turn to [another bit of Paramount IP for the answer](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/profit?ref=spyglass.org): 1\. Step one 2\. Step two 3\. ???? 4\. PROFIT!!! Or maybe David Ellison should start an AI company, raise billions, then merge it with Paramount. I mean, this has [worked in the past](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) for deals that make [absolutely no sense on paper](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/)! But really, the answer will undoubtedly be a combination of huge cuts – "synergies" – mixed with the hope that rates keep going down so this can all be constantly refinanced with the buck being passed around until they figure out a way to spin out some assets and burden them with the debt. You know, just like David Zaslav was about to do! I'm being harsh. The truth is that this is the deal that I thought Paramount *should* do! As Skydance was in the midst of acquiring National Amusements, and thus, Paramount, [I wrote the following in July 2024](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/): > There's been a lot of talk amidst the Paramount dealings that WBD might be a good home/partner. What if, once the Skydance/Paramount deal is closed, \*they actually buy WBD\*? Yes, there are debt issues, but a year from now, hopefully WBD head David Zaslav will have a better answer and path there. Ellison has spoken a few times about Paramount+ in particular. Most assume they'll either spin it off or merge it with another player, like WBD's Max or Comcast's Peacock. And perhaps they will. But again, I'm not sure they shouldn't just buy \*all of\* WBD to bulk up into one of the major players themselves. Well, they took my advice. And just over a year later, with [their deal](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-part-ii/) finally closed, [they made their bid](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/). But that bid was $19/share – and a mixture of cash and stock. That would have valued WBD at just below $50B (before their own aforementioned sizable debt was taken into account). After *eight* more offers from Paramount, and yes, the one from Netflix (including switching their own offer from cash/stock to all cash), here we are. Anyone who [took issue](https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2025/06/04/warner-bros-discovery-shareholders-reject-david-zaslav-pay-package/?ref=spyglass.org) with David Zaslav's pay package should apologize immediately. He may not have been great at running WBD's actual business, but the financial engineering required here to turn $50B into $80B into $111B in just a few short months – again, while the core business *declined* – is truly something. But again, while this deal makes no sense financially, it does feel like Paramount needed it. For Netflix, Warner Bros was a nice-to-have. For Paramount, it was existential. Without the Warner Bros studio, which, before a last-minute holiday surge by Disney was the number one movie studio for much of last year, Paramount was the distant fifth place player in a group of five. Adding WB vaults them close to or at the top with Disney. Meanwhile, in streaming, Paramount+ is also the fifth place player, but there, it could be worse: they could be Peacock. Still, despite some decent numbers – thanks Taylor Sheridan ([who subsequently bailed](https://puck.news/taylor-sheridan-is-leaving-paramount-for/?ref=spyglass.org)) and the NFL – they were far behind the "major" players. Including, yes, HBO Max. This deal vaults them near the top there too. Ahead of Disney but behind... Netflix. So yeah, you can see why Paramount felt the need to win this deal, no matter the cost. Without it, they were a sub-scale player. With it, they're a real player. Of course, it's in a game stuck in secular decline. Disney makes most of their money from the theme parks and cruises, not the movies. There's [a reason why](https://spyglass.org/disney-cruises-to-damaro/) Parks chief Josh D'Amaro is [the new CEO](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/187098973/josh-damaro-gets-his-wish-upon-a-star?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, the IP fuels it and keeps the flywheel going, but even Disney has to manage the fact that the actual movie business is simply not a great one anymore. You'd think Hollywood would recognize this. But it's hard when their jobs literally rely on them not recognizing it. They're blinded by box office results that exist in a magical realm where inflation doesn't seem to. If we look [at tickets sold](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) – butts in seats – the situation [looks dire](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). And it looks [even worse](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) if you put it through the lens of per capita moviegoing in the US [over time](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org). Netflix carved a new path forward in the form of streaming. No, it's not as good of a business as the heyday of movie theaters – or even DVD sales – but it clearly works for Netflix. They're on their way to becoming [the first $1T media company](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/). Again, they thought Warner Bros' IP could have accelerated that, but now they'll find another way. One big question: without the need for [Sarandos' endless promises](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) of doing proper theatrical releases and windows, will Netflix still go down this path? [I still think they will](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) – unless Sarandos decides the path forward with Hollywood is more scorched Earth in light of their reaction to his deal. I wouldn't be shocked if Netflix goes the other way: aiming to show Hollywood what they missed by moving to [dominate the box office](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) themselves. Then again, [I predicted this move long before this actual deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). Perhaps it's [simply](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%5BTHR%5D-,I%20Spy...,-The%20parallels%20between), "They won. We lost. Next."[2](#two) Here's the thing: [Hollywood absolutely shot themselves in the foot here](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). They thought the Netflix/Warner deal signaled the end of their industry, when really it showcased the best possible path forward. To be fair, it's not like the industry loves this Paramount deal either, but what they wanted was *no deal*. For Warner Bros to continue on as it was, forever. That was simply not tenable and not an option. [If Netflix was a path to growth](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/), and Paramount is a path to slower decay, the status quo would have been a quicker collapse under the burden of steady, managed decline. I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm trying to paint a realistic picture. The only studio that can survive on its own is the one that has for the past century: Disney. And again, that's thanks to their other businesses propping up the studio. For a long while this was cable. Now it's the aforementioned parks.[3](#three) There's a reason why every other studio has spent much of the past 100 years[ being passed around various conglomerates](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) like trading cards. These are not great businesses! Certainly not in our modern age. And when a modern age player came calling, Hollywood freaked the fuck out and threw a tantrum until they walked away. Nice work. I'll end by once again quoting some Warner Bros IP, fittingly from the fictional media mogul I kicked off by quoting. ["Money wins."](https://giphy.com/gifs/SuccessionHBO-hbo-succession-successionhbo-mEhyrxDNzGQbGdncfc?ref=spyglass.org) But really, it's [more like](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/): "Debt wins." [Good luck](https://giphy.com/gifs/SuccessionHBO-hbo-succession-succesionhbo-j2SIaVb9ICKb5BgBdg?ref=spyglass.org). ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. As I've said throughout with these disclosures, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. And here we are.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Hollywood Cuts Off Its Future to Spite Its PresentNetflix is obviously the best path forward for Warner Bros, you fools…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1045.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/RIP_20241028_01742_R-H-2026-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1044.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-13.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [The $1T Media CompanyNetflix has owned Hollywood, and aims to keep doing so…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1051.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_netflix_logo_on_a_rocketship_--ar_169_--profil_c0ae6366-d703-446e-8afe-966bfa73af59_2-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1047.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-11.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1048.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) [Paramount Skydance’s Blockbuster Bid for Warner Bros DiscoveryOne good idea, so many names…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1049.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wbmount2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) [How to Scale ParamountCan Skydance finally, actually bridge Silicon Valley and Hollywood?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1050.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_scaling_the_paramount_logo_18900cfa-a6b8-4cb4-afc3-d37bbd2ac4c2_1-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) --- 1 Strange how [this keeps happening](https://spyglass.org/paramount-chomps-skydance/) with Skydance deals? Also, I'm not really going to delve into the political aspects here, but I very much look forward to future reporting on that particular aspect, which sure seems to have [a strong waft](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/189040116/paramounts-new-bid-is-in?ref=spyglass.org) of a bunch of bullshit. [↩](#) 2 Though "next" remains figuring out a way to [combat YouTube](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/). You know, the [*real* competition here](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/)... To that end, probably not crazy to think that Netflix may be able to buy at least some of these assets – at far more firesale prices! – in a few years... [↩](#) 3 Yes, Warner Bros has a small parks business too, thanks mainly to *Harry Potter* and deals with Universal. Paramount has been trying to get back into the game (after selling off some amusement parks back in the day). [↩](#) ### Apple is About to Have *Two* Toaster/Fridge Hybrids URL: https://spyglass.org/touchscreen-macbook-toaster-fridge/ Last updated: 2026-06-08T13:32:38.000Z The year was 2012\. Tim Cook had only been in place as (permanent) CEO of Apple for a handful of months. During [their Q2 earnings call](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17838180?ref=spyglass.org), when asked about Microsoft's strategy of converging the laptop and tablet with their then-forthcoming Windows 8 operating system, Cook had the quip ready: > "You can converge a toaster and a refrigerator, but those things are probably not going to be pleasing to the user." A lot can change in 14 years. Including, it seems, kitchens... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Tasty AI URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-taste/ Last updated: 2026-06-03T13:53:15.000Z > "The only problem with Microsoft is that they just have no taste." This Steve Jobs quote from [a 1995 interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRZAJY23xio&ref=spyglass.org) – notably before he returned to Apple – has long lingered in the back of my mind. To me, it's more than just a succinct evisceration of his rival, it speaks to a problem with a lot of technology. It's the notion that, with products in particular, there's an art alongside the science. And it sure feels like this will be a crucial component in AI. It feels like we've been seeing this come up more and more as AI starts to permeate everything, but especially the aspects bordering on everyday life. As the technology [continues to become more capable](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/), the limitations shift from what it can do, to *how* it does such things. And *why* it makes the choices that it does. Famously, no one really knows on a granular level – not even those creating the technology. It's all simply too complex, with too many inputs, and increasingly is teaching itself. We know the high-level ways in which it works, at least with LLMs, but we're also starting to branch beyond that. Which, of course, many believe will lead to AGI. But before we get there, it does seem like we may need to reconcile this notion of taste. [I've previously written about](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/) the fear that our current AI may be incapable of truly original thought, and that anything we're seeing that may *appear* as such is really just algorithmic anomalies that we don't understand. The output may look the same, but it's not the same. [Because it's the *input* that may matter most](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). To truly come up with new discoveries and epiphanies – to create actual iconoclastic [thinking](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) – we may be missing some ingredients as everything sort of gravitates towards an ultimate mean. Our current AI may be able to find any needle in any haystack, but can't write *Don Quixote*.[1](#one) Well, it can now, but couldn't in 1605, had such technology existed then. But actually given the knowledge of every Spanish word and being able to run infinite combinations of those words, AI *would* technically write *Don Quixote* in one scenario. Cervantes may have been more efficient in doing so, but it's just a matter of enough compute and resources to mimic the path his mind charted. Still, someone – or something – would be required to distill those infinite versions of *Don Quixote* into the definitive one. And how would it choose? Certainly a human could do this, but could AI? If forced to, it would undoubtedly make such a decision, but again, how and why? It would go back into the endless algorithms and data sets. But a human would just go with a "gut instinct" – how one version made them *feel* versus the others. This is taste. Steve Jobs, of course, meant "good taste" with his comment. But that's obviously subjective. Even Microsoft's "bad taste" or "poor taste" or technically even "no taste" is still taste. And while he levied the charge on the entire company, it was a series of decisions by individuals that led to that taste for which he had distaste. I think you could argue that one key ingredient for taste are limitations. That is, while AI can run infinite permutations and sort through the infinite results, human beings cannot. At some point, we have to choose based on what is feasible. That includes the way we come up with words. In a way, I suppose it's similar to what AI does – we go to what we've learned before and try to string things together in a coherent manner – but again, we cannot do it to infinity. A machine technically could (given enough compute and time) and so it uses the strings found in data sets to make decisions based on probabilities. Said another way: the data created by humans that the machines have ingested is the proxy for "taste". It's the way those decisions are made at the highest level. And as synthetic data has entered the equation from the outputs of those decisions, the AI can output new variables that are only reliant upon humanity once-removed. As you go further afield, [earlier iterations would collapse](https://spyglass.org/ai-synthetic-data-ouroboros/) upon themselves, perhaps because they lacked the guardrails of humanity's decisions – or taste. Maybe it's not too dissimilar to how the end of the *Game of Thrones* television series devolved into sloppiness because it had no guardrails in the form of George R. R. Martin's books. But I digress... With the wave of agentic AI currently sweeping into our lives, taste is shifting from a nice-to-have to a must-have for many. Personally, even if I believed that AI is now capable enough to do certain tasks for me, I still mostly wouldn't trust it to do so. This goes for things as simple as organizing folders on my computer to far more sensitive matters such as [taking over control](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) of [my email inbox](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/). It has become less about technical abilities and more about decision-making. And yes, in a way, taste. Programmers seemingly also had a similar issue early on, but at least some now believe that tools such as Codex and Claude Code are good enough on this front. Matt Shumer even specifically called out this notion of "taste" as his "aha" moment in his recent viral post ["Something Big is Happening"](https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening?ref=spyglass.org): > But it was the model that was released last week (GPT-5.3 Codex) that shook me the most. It wasn't just executing my instructions. It was making intelligent decisions. It had something that felt, for the first time, like **judgment**. Like **taste**. The inexplicable sense of knowing what the right call is that people always said AI would never have. This model has it, or something close enough that the distinction is starting not to matter. And later on, he reiterates: > The most recent AI models make decisions that feel like judgment. They show something that looked like taste: an intuitive sense of what the right call was, not just the technically correct one. A year ago that would have been unthinkable. My rule of thumb at this point is: if a model shows even a *hint* of a capability today, the next generation will be genuinely good at it. These things improve exponentially, not linearly. Meanwhile, the very same word came up again in this past week's viral post from Alap Shah and Citrini Research, ["The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis"](https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?ref=spyglass.org), noting that in the future, humans may still be needed as a sort of last line of defense around AI outputs "directing for taste". So AI "taste" may be good enough for coding now, but still may not be for general AI usage. And even in the most optimistic (in terms of AI's near-future capabilities – decidedly *pessimistic* for humanity) take on where AI is heading, we may not get to AI "taste" anytime soon. The reality, of course, is probably somewhere in between the two. Clearly the AI labs believe that they can solve for "taste" by amping up personalization. As AI learns from your responses, it is tailoring those to be more in line with what it believes you like. But beyond the sycophantic ([and other](https://spyglass.org/ai-distant-memory/)) concerns, there's the notion that "taste" actually encompasses far more than your own preferences, but that you may seek out the preferences of *others* to tell you what *they* like for you. It's nuanced, but different. So how do we get AI to do that? The answer may still be personalization, but rather than it just mirroring you and your own tastes, you sort of do rounds of "dating" for lack of a better phrase to see which AI is most compatible with your own tastes. Forget the Turing test, how about a simple "taste test"? This resonates with me because [I've been doing this](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/) for a while now. Currently, I'm paying to use ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude to see which suits my own style and preferences best. Right now, I think it's Claude, but that has morphed over time and I suspect it will again as each of these models continue to evolve. Still, as deep as I am in all of this, I have a hard time believing that I'm going to trust one of these systems to handle harder workflows anytime soon. And it's not about the tech, it's about the taste. Take, for example, the use case everyone in tech always turns to for demos: booking travel. I fully believe these services will be able to technically do that end-to-end soon enough, but I simply don't believe that the decisions they make will align with the ones I would make. Some of that may be logistics, but I also think these systems will get past that once they have full access to your calendar and email and the like. But that's just the start. From here we quickly enter a maze of a hundred little preferences that are altered by thousands of real-world variables. If the powers that be thought the game of Go was a good, complex task to prove out AI, wait until it gets a load of trying to book travel for a family with children. Do I believe that AI will pick the place that will be best for me and my family? Sight unseen? Of course not. So the AI will prompt me just as Claude Cowork now does to ensure it's picking the right places and services. But it's not long before that's more work than simply doing it yourself. And so that doesn't work. We'll check off all the technical boxes but the taste ones may yet remain. Because how do you code up "there are a bunch of options, this one looks nice, let's try it"? The AI might ask what you mean by "looks nice" since all of the images on the travel site that they've ingested through an API technically "look nice". And so you'll explain to the AI that you're not sure, it's just a "vibe" you're getting. And the AI will say it understands, because those are words it has ingested, but it will not actually understand. Maybe, perhaps, because an AI hasn't lived. And, as such, doesn't have the memories forged in the real world that subconsciously alter the way an image makes you *feel*. In the past, people have obviously used travel agents to make such calls. And others use personal assistants – the actual human variety. But those are human beings with taste. And you can suss out if you trust their taste to match your own. If AI technically has no taste... I turn back to Steve Jobs: > "They have absolutely no taste. And what that means is – I don't mean that in a small way, I mean that in a big way. In the sense that they don't think of original ideas." 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Love It If We Made ItAI will disrupt work. We will adapt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1034.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_54_36-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) [It’s The Thought That CountsThe diminished state of thinking could be decimated by AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1037.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--10_58_44-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1038.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1034.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) [Artificial IconoclastsA foil might be needed for artificial intelligence…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1035.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-27-at-7.13.19-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/) --- 1 Try using AI to get to the bottom of where the "needle in a haystack" phrase originated, I dare you! Gemini believes it's Sir Thomas More. ChatGPT is sure it was Chaucer. Claude thinks it's Cervantes. Digging around myself, I *believe* the answer is that More used a similar (but different) metaphor (involving a meadow), while the *Don Quixote* reference actually stems from the English translation of the book because no one outside of Spain would know what "To go looking for Dulcinea in El Toboso like looking for Marica in Ravenna..." would mean. But the actual phrase undoubtedly predates that in ways too – it seems unlikely one translator is that clever – that book translation just helped establish it widely. When pushed on Chaucer, ChatGPT kept right on hallucinating in ways that were both fascinating and entirely unhelpful in terms of [conveying certainty](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/)! Anyway, my own *taste* here guides me towards using the *Don Quixote* reference. [↩](#) ### Exbox URL: https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/ Last updated: 2026-06-03T13:52:57.000Z Almost exactly two years ago, [I wrote a post](https://spyglass.org/exbox/) about the muddled mistakes Microsoft seemed to be making with their "Xbox Everywhere" strategic shift. Re-reading it now, in light of [the news](https://www.techmeme.com/260220/p17?ref=spyglass.org#a260220p17) of the major shakeup [atop the Xbox division](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/188635789/ex-marks-the-box?ref=spyglass.org), and I think it pretty much nailed the failures we're now seeing play out, which have culminated in these changes – so much so that I'm going to steal my old URL slug for this title. Because I do think this signals the end for the endeavor... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### NVIDIA Inside URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-inside-pc/ Last updated: 2026-05-30T06:07:26.000Z [ Nvidia Wants to Be the Brain of Consumer PCs Once Again AI leader and its partners hope to make PCs lighter and thinner while keeping long battery life ![](https://s.wsj.net/img/meta/wsj_favicon.svg) Wall Street Journal Yang Jie ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-79232164?width=700&size=1.501&pixel_ratio=2) ](https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-wants-to-be-the-brain-of-consumer-pcs-once-again-9e1e41b3?ref=spyglass.org) One of the more interesting things about NVIDIA being the most valuable company in the world for [the past couple of years](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/) is that unlike their Big Tech peers, they're not really a known consumer brand. Sure, they have their graphics cards which have long been popular with gamers (and, of course, [got them to](https://spyglass.org/the-envy-of-nvidia/) their AI moment in the sun), but they're not the household name like Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, or Meta. And that's in part because those who buy from NVIDIA (again, aside from hardcore gamers), [are largely](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) the aforementioned Big Tech players ([well](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/), [aside from Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/)). NVIDIA, it seems, would like to change that... > Nvidia chips for laptop computers are set to hit the market this year in products from Dell, Lenovo and others, a return to the consumer PC market for the [leader in artificial-intelligence chips](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-unveils-faster-ai-chips-sooner-than-expected-626154a5?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org). > > The [world’s most valuable company](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-nvda-4-trillion-market-cap-466c1c9c?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) by market capitalization, Nvidia isn’t expecting big profit soon from getting its chips into everyday PCs, but analysts said it wanted to keep a connection with consumers in an era when every device will be AI-enabled. It's sort of buried in here, but this isn't just about *GPUs*, but *CPUs* as well. And it's a "return" to that market – beyond [their mini AI "supercomputers"](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-037-captain-america/#:~:text=%E2%9A%B1%EF%B8%8F%20Nvidia%20Announces,.%20%5BVerge%5D) – in that the company actually made such chips for Microsoft's original version of the Surface products – which, um, [didn't go so well](https://techcrunch.com/2012/11/19/i-got-one-but-i-dont-get-it/?ref=spyglass.org). But they also make the chips powering the Nintendo Switch – both the original and new Switch 2 – which has [done extremely well](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2-launch/), obviously. Still, NVIDIA is known as the GPU company, not the CPU company. That, despite all their problems over the past many years, would still be Intel. Thanks to their [long-gone](https://spyglass.org/intel-goes-inside-intel-inside/) but still iconic "Intel Inside" marketing campaigns, consumers know Intel. Which is exactly why, nearly two years ago, I wrote a post entitled: [Can NVIDIA Become Intel Faster Than Everyone Becomes NVIDIA?](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/). In it, I noted: > At the same time, NVIDIA is moving further into tangential fields with not only different types of GPUs, but also CPUs as well. At first, it seems the aim is to try to take on more of the datacenter workloads, which their rivals Intel and AMD have long controlled. But presumably, this portends a move to try to take on all computing chip needs in general. > > All of that is to say, NVIDIA is trying to become Intel faster than Intel (and everyone else) can become NVIDIA. Well, the race to become NVIDIA is still very much on – for [pretty much everyone](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) aside from perhaps Intel. And yes, [here NVIDIA comes](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-038-meta-miscues/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Nvidia%20CEO%20Has%20Plans%20for%20Desktop%20Chip%20Designed%20with%20MediaTek) for "general" computing as well. And they're doing this, in part, *with* Intel – back to Jie: > For the PC chip, Nvidia has two collaborations: one with Intel, which was announced last year, and a second with Taiwanese chip designer MediaTek, which was informally disclosed by Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang during a trip to Taiwan in January. > > Nvidia’s new PC processors are designed to be what’s known as a system-on-a-chip. They integrate a central processor with the powerful graphics processing units for which the company is famous. GPUs are the chips that power AI models. The Intel partnership would pair Intel CPUs with NVIDIA GPUs in one SoC. But the MediaTek one is arguably more interesting as it would be actual NVIDIA CPUs made in partnership with MediaTek working off of ARM designs – a company which, of course, NVIDIA was [blocked from acquiring](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-17/nvidia-sells-off-stake-in-arm-a-company-it-once-tried-to-buy?ref=spyglass.org) years ago. It's that full NVIDIA SoC that Dell, Lenovo, and others seem to be circling. Undoubtedly in part to play up the NVIDIA angle, hoping to get some halo effect for PC sales. You could see the angle being something like "forget about Intel and AMD, NVIDIA, the company building the future of AI, is here with PC chips". Yes, they'd be touting "NVIDIA Inside". > Fewer consumers are paying attention to PCs these days in a tech world dominated by talk of AI and smartphones, but laptops are still a big business. Nvidia’s Huang has observed that roughly 150 million laptops are sold each year, explaining why the area is worth his attention. > > “There’s an entire segment of the market where the CPU and GPU are integrated,” he said last September. “That segment has been largely unaddressed by Nvidia today.” One imagines a company absolutely printing money at the moment – so much so that [they can't find things to spend it on](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) – can help with any marketing push too... But while the obvious early sweet spot would be gamers, who again know the brand thanks to their GPUs, it's a bit of a complicated one: > For the Nvidia-MediaTek collaboration, the challenge will be making the PCs compatible with high-end games and other applications originally designed for the Intel standard. > > The Arm architecture used by the Nvidia-MediaTek team has proved troublesome for gamers. In 2024, Microsoft rolled out new AI PCs with chips from Qualcomm using designs from Arm. Many gamers complained they [couldn’t play their favorite games](https://www.wsj.com/tech/microsoft-rolled-out-ai-pcs-that-cant-play-top-gamesand-theres-no-quick-fix-0a1b6376?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) on those PCs. But one has to imagine that NVIDIA can figure this out, [even if Microsoft and Qualcomm couldn't](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/) – as they were clearly [too focused on](https://spyglass.org/redmond-we-have-a-problem/), what else: AI. ([And](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/), of [course](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-ai-silicon-powered-by-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-elite/), Apple's [MacBook Air](https://spyglass.org/copilot-plus-pcs-macbook/).) Could such machines lead to an actual "supercycle" for the PC? Or is it just a smart play by NVIDIA to make some inroads into the hearts and minds of actual consumers as AI permeates everything?... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/33de0774-9752-487e-a571-eabaea896404-2.png) --- **Update May 29, 2026**: Something 'NVIDIA Inside' this way comes... [Microsoft Seeks a Surface RT & Copilot+ PC Do-Over with NVIDIACan the main AI chip maker ensure Windows owns the ‘AI PC’?![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/05/HJf6tj2bgAAoGf7.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-cpu-microsoft-surface-ai/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Can NVIDIA Become Intel Faster Than Everyone Becomes NVIDIA?As money pours into AI, can NVIDIA stay ahead?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1030.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-watercolor-rocket-ship-3-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intel-ai-bet/) [Intel Goes Inside ‘Intel Inside’What a strange branding “refresh”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1031.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wyUB3Te846RD4TLZp5G9oS-1200-80.jpg-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/intel-goes-inside-intel-inside/) [No Fun: the Growing List of ‘AI PC’ Problems‘Copilot+ PCs’ clearly have a major problem with a small little software category called ‘gaming’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1029.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Frustrated-Person-Surface-Laptop-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ai-pc-gaming-problems/) ### Can OpenAI Build Alexa Before Amazon Can Build ChatGPT? URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-smart-speaker/ Last updated: 2026-05-22T20:47:18.000Z I mean, the answer to the question in the title is: of course. But it's also a far more nuanced question that it may seem on the surface – or that could fit in a title. It's more along the lines of can OpenAI execute an AI device strategy before Amazon and Apple and Google and Meta can? And it's especially interesting with Amazon given the reports that they're going to invest perhaps *$50B* into OpenAI's new funding round. From the moment it was rumored, that [seemed](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-could-invest-50b-into-openai?ref=spyglass.org) like a *wild* amount of money, even for a company the size of Amazon. But certainly one that is also [*the largest shareholder*](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) in OpenAI's chief (startup) rival, Anthropic. And has a deep partnership with them on a few fronts. Perhaps most notably, [to help power the new Alexa+ service](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-alexa/). And it gets even more complicated with the reports that alongside this new funding, [OpenAI may build custom models for Amazon's products](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/) – including, perhaps Alexa. At the same time, we know that OpenAI is hard at work on their first devices. And ever since [word started to trickle out](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) about what they might be working on with Jony Ive's team at LoveFrom, [my guess was basically](https://spyglass.org/chat-gpt-pin/) along the lines of [a newfangled smart speaker](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). As [I wrote last May](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/): > The problem with a full-on wearable in this regard is that everyone focuses far too much on the whole wearable part. That is, the exterior of the device and how it will work on your body. And then: how can I get the technology to work on that? But I suspect that OpenAI/IO are focused on the opposite: what's the best device to use this technology? Why does it have to be wearable? > > To be clear, I suspect that whatever the device is, it will look fantastic – this is [an Ive/LoveFrom production](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/), [after all](https://spyglass.org/duo-button-design-lovefrom/) – but that's mainly because beautiful products bring a sense of delight to users and can spur usage. I suspect the key to the design here will be yes: [how it works](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/457177-design-is-not-just-what-it-looks-like-and-feels?ref=spyglass.org). And again, I suspect that will be largely based around voice, and perhaps augmented by a camera. And: > Anyway, the reporting here makes the IO device sound a bit like a newfangled tape recorder of sorts. Okay, I'm dating myself – a voice recorder. You know, the thing some journalists use to record subjects for interviews. Well, when they're not using their phones for that purpose, as they undoubtedly are 99% of the time these days. But it sounds sort of like that only with, I suspect, some sort of camera. I doubt that's about recording as much as it's about the ability to have ChatGPT "look" at something and tell you about it. But these are just guesses. Well, they seem less like guesses now, and more like pretty solid predictions. OpenAI's device is shaping up as a sort of Amazon Echo for our modern age of AI. To me, [the launch of GPT-4o](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) was the key in showcasing where OpenAI was headed. The first true "omni" model that could properly input and output visuals and voice [pointed directly towards](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) the science fiction future of *Her* – a reference Sam Altman explicitly made, which got him in [quite a bit of trouble](https://spyglass.org/tag/scarlett-johansson/)... But this was always about [moving beyond the computer](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) and perhaps even the smartphone. Or, at least, that's what OpenAI ([and Meta](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) – [and even Amazon](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/)) have to hope. I tend to think all of these new AI devices are just going to [reinforce the smartphone at the key hub](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) (at least until [models that can run locally](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) on device are good and small enough), and Altman and Ive made it clear [in the formal announcement of their partnership](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) that whatever they were building would not be an iPhone *replacement*. At the same time, [clearly](https://spyglass.org/just-jony/) Ive was [hoping](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) it could be a device that could slowly [ween people off his other famous creation](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). A parasitic device, in a way. The form factor of what that parasite may look like keeps coming more into focus. On Friday, [Stephanie Palazzolo and Qianer Liu published the latest such report for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-openai-team-developing-ai-devices?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Noting that OpenAI now has more than 200 people working on various AI devices, including interestingly, a smart lamp. But the key one is clearly: > The smart speaker—the first device OpenAI will release—is likely to be priced between $200 and $300, according to two people with knowledge of it. The speaker will have a camera, enabling it to take in information about its users and their surroundings, such as items on a nearby table or conversations people are having in the vicinity, according to one of the people. It will also allow people to buy things by identifying them with a facial recognition feature similar to Apple’s Face ID, the people said. To me, this sounds less like an "iPhone-killer" and more like an "Alexa-killer". Fine, fine, technically an "Echo-killer", but everyone uses them interchangeably, of course. In fact, the only thing holding it back – aside from, you know, it actually working – would be the price. $200 to $300 is more in the Apple ballpark than the Amazon one. That said, Amazon has pivoted [their initial "Alexa everywhere"](https://500ish.com/alexa-everywhere-eeee670a5f02?ref=spyglass.org) strategy (which [forced](https://500ish.com/i-was-right-that-apple-was-wrong-f877b73f6444?ref=spyglass.org) Apple to [shift](https://500ish.com/homepod-everlasting-cc5d8438013c?ref=spyglass.org) their initial HomePod strategy) with cheap devices anywhere and everywhere to a [more focused strategy](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) around higher quality [devices](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) under Panos Panay. Again, this feels like a collision course waiting to happen. And it's especially odd given the talk of the deepening relationship between OpenAI and Amazon. But if OpenAI is able to make an AI device that's great for shopping... perhaps the hope is to partner with Amazon to be the retail side of that equation. And vice versa! Maybe Amazon no longer cares if you buy using Alexa devices, just so long as you buy. That's probably smart, especially given how well (read: not well) the first wave of voice-based shopping went with Alexa. And the two of them may be better off working together to combat Apple and Google. Not only are they the two other players battling for the home (alongside Samsung, of course), but they're the two that control smartphone platforms (alongside Samsung, thanks to Google, of course). And Apple is seemingly about to step it up in a major way in the home with the 'HomePad' device. [It's thought to be](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) a smart speaker with a camera, powered by AI. Sound familiar? Of course Apple's, like at least half of Amazon's new Alexa+ lineup, will also feature [a screen](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/). Whereas the OpenAI device is believed not to have one. The lack of one has clearly hurt Amazon in the past for their shopping ambitions, so we'll see how OpenAI fares... But the visual input, the camera, will clearly be the other key for the device: > During a presentation last summer, leaders from the device team told employees the device will be able to observe users through video and nudge them toward actions it believes will help them achieve their goals, said a person who attended the presentation. You could imagine the device observing its user staying up late the night before a big meeting and suggesting that they go to bed, for example. Interesting. That's going to be a very tricky set of features to promote. OpenAI will probably get more leeway [than, say, Meta](https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/), but certainly not as much as Apple here. Oh yes, have I mentioned that Apple is also working on [a camera-focused AI wearable](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/)? One that's meant to be the ["eyes and ears"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-17/apple-ramps-up-work-on-glasses-pendant-and-camera-airpods-for-ai-era?ref=spyglass.org) of the iPhone? This is all shaping up for a very interesting next 12 months. Apple's 'HomePad' should come in the Spring – [hopefully!](https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/) – with Siri finally powered by Gemini, to meet the latest Alexa+ devices from Amazon in market. Google's own first real Gemini smart speaker should arrive around the same time. Meta will continue to iterate on the Ray-Bans while Apple could [meet them in market](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) in late 2026 or early 2027\. Then this OpenAI smart speaker should hit... **One more thing:** As *The Information* report notes, Adam Cue is one of the key players on the software side of this new OpenAI device, having come over from the acquisition of the io team. Cue is, of course, the son of longtime Apple SVP Eddy Cue. Another fun wrinkle in the race! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/mgs_make_it_look_like_a_pebble_with_a_camera_and_the_openAI_l_16fb2d4d-b720-4a5a-a18a-7f59e0f28759_1.png) **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple’s Next Big Thing: the iPhoneA rush of AI devices – including from Apple – may end up as a reminder of which company is in control here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1028.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-19--2026--09_26_01-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/) [Alexa+ Plus ChatGPT?As Apple goes with Google, Amazon goes with Anthropic \*and\* OpenAI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1024.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-4--2026--07_18_11-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/) [OpenAI’s Digital Assistant DeviceObvious challenges aside, it’s starting to come into focus…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1025.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) [“Hello, Computer.”With AI and an appetite for new hardware, vocal computing seems primed to take off, for real this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1026.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a55090e3-ec2d-4f98-835e-0e819fcf17bd-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/) [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1027.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-12.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) ### Apple's Next Big Thing: the iPhone URL: https://spyglass.org/apples-next-big-ai-thing-the-iphone/ Last updated: 2026-05-22T20:46:55.000Z Folks, strap yourselves in and get ready for a wild ride – or at least, a narrative violation: what if Apple is actually *ahead* in AI?.. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Little? Yellow? Different? URL: https://spyglass.org/new-macbooks/ Last updated: 2026-03-04T19:09:46.000Z With media invites [now out there](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/02/17/apple-event-march-2026-preview/?ref=spyglass.org), it sure looks like all systems are go for the [long-rumored return of Apple's MacBook](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/). Not the Air. Not the Pro. The first of its name. And a name Apple hasn't used since [they killed off the last iteration in 2019](https://500ish.com/the-macbook-error-af2dfc9b811f?ref=spyglass.org). But a lot has changed since then. Most notably, Apple Silicon. Whereas the last MacBooks were either underpowered or [overheating](https://mgs.blog/think-cooler-52a6efecdaec?ref=spyglass.org) – or both – machines due to Intel's [incompetence](https://500ish.com/apples-embarrassment-of-intel-e2cf258ee320?ref=spyglass.org) back then, we now live in an world without such concerns.[1](#one) As such, it's undoubtedly time to bring the brand back. At the same time, the MacBook Air has basically become the MacBook. With the move away from the "tear drop" iconic design a few years back (just after the first M1 Airs), there's nothing decidedly Air about these machines. Sure, they're thin and light compared to the MacBook Pros, but certainly they could be thinner and lighter still with our new technologies. But Apple basically chose to stick with the name for marketing purposes. It works. Why mess with what works? And so it sure seems like the new MacBook – if Apple does indeed decide to call it that[2](#two) – will go in a slightly different direction. It may end up the thinnest and lightest Mac, but that won't be the core selling point as it was with the last MacBook (and the original MacBook Airs). This one will be all about affordability. And yes. Colors. This too has been [rumored](https://9to5mac.com/2025/06/30/cheaper-macbook-iphone-chip-kuo/?ref=spyglass.org) for months – and many of us have been [clamoring for](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/) a return to the "fun" root of Apple's machines [for far longer than that](https://mgs.blog/give-us-the-m1-macbook-not-air-not-pro-you-cowards-59af88053976?ref=spyglass.org) – but Mark Gurman has now seemingly confirmed one of the key selling points [for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-15/tesla-carplay-delays-related-to-ios-26-and-fsd-apple-s-new-siri-delays-ios-27?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple will market the machine to students and enterprise users and offer it in playful colors, going beyond the muted tones of the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro. Over the past year, Apple has tested options such as light yellow, light green, blue, pink, classic silver and dark gray — though it’s unlikely all of these will ship. I expect the MacBook to [launch as early as March](https://links.message.bloomberg.com/s/c/4%5FSvR7EmuWLnijdONodZNeGczzAbJXpt4RLSY0KDPZH8ka4W3qOFqwgjD6gkCl0l2MEYnqNG6At-%5FrNFFb3orrOpWZ74WXtCZ5i9j3ETZzYkyQLQL0SSAYTmB7ujqJuMcxPHIexTyp386ErIY693YeJpCtOPeaIS7uzEafkAX9w635EemwJ3XtoImlldPqhNK5XgrdV-KlLuNAISEencoBwLa265wlHutlrKblwjm01SjGIpU5u1VRkOxZJm7OnlR0kT1tqUhS%5FqKTPugTkPlX1VBx5jqRhtdQonhWSMxvLuqTdFxc%5FEcCltD0wGW9rN2yVnF3-1YvHdW4cKfpHfT33-Ie5Vml92NtctNKzS8FuAV7DOBBlU9EQf-gg/AtuCh2fkFoGDkMgZeSoEyheF4oXpAPYe/17?ref=spyglass.org), with Apple preparing for an event that month. Such colors, of course, are echoed in the invites to Apple's special "experience" in early March. And after years of decidedly drab designs, at least from a color-perspective (iMacs and a few iPads aside), color seems to be gathering momentum within Apple once again, thanks in no small part to the orange – sorry, ["Cosmic Orange"](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) – iPhone, which is said to be driving a lot of Pro model sales. Might yellow, green, and pink do the same for the MacBook lineup?[3](#three) Regardless, the key selling point here will clearly be the price. Since the rumors started, [my guess has firmly been in the $799 range](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/). Certainly not the cheapest laptops on the market by any stretch, but a solid $200 below the MacBook Air entry point (student discounts aside). The more interesting question is what it means for the M1 variety of the MacBook Air that Apple has been [selling with Walmart at $699](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/) – or often lower, with deals. Presumably, the time for that machine is over, unless they update it with a newer 'M' variant? M2? M3?! But that also would be a strange move given that these new would-be MacBooks are said to be using iPhone-class Apple Silicon – aka an A-series chip. That plus a new production process is all about keeping costs down. And presumably that will mean less RAM as well – the hottest topic in the industry right now. All of that likely adds up to machines which are fully tailored for the budget-oriented shopper – which notably could include schools, in bulk. An area which [Apple has oddly ceded](https://500ish.com/apple-cedes-735192326da4?ref=spyglass.org) in the past many years to Chromebooks and yes, Microsoft. iPads were good in classrooms for some things but as Apple more than anyone [likes to remind us](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/), iPads are not MacBooks! They're not laptops. They're different, [even as](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/) they [increasingly look and act the same](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/). And even in 2026, students still need laptops. Still, beyond the colors, I personally remain intrigued by this element of the machines: > The machine will feature other compromises — compared with the MacBook Air or MacBook Pro — including a slightly smaller display that’s just under 13 inches. But in one area, Apple isn’t cutting corners: build quality. This goes back to the last MacBook, which had a 12" screen. I loved that form-factor and would be tempted by something slightly smaller than the current 13" MacBook Air. But probably only if it had incredible battery life and could be upgraded from what will undoubtedly be 8GB of RAM as the base. Give me a 2lb (actually) yellow MacBook with 16GB of RAM and I might be very intrigued... Otherwise, it will be a great (and fun) machine for many, I assume. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/Apple-Announces-Special-Event-in-New-York-Feature-1.jpg) --- **Update March 3, 2026**: It now looks like the new machine will be unveiled tomorrow but not with the 'MacBook' name, but instead a new brand ([per a leak on Apple's own site](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/03/03/apple-accidentally-leaks-macbook-neo/?ref=spyglass.org)): 'MacBook Neo'... To quote someone: ["Whoa."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP8uhXuS2n8&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org) --- **Update March 4, 2026**: And here she is... [MacBook Neo: WhoaApple’s newest Mac is priced to move…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1066.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-5.51.36---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Return of the MacBook?A colorful, cheaper Apple laptop has been a dream, but reality is often more drab…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1012.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_colorful_macbook_photorealistic_--ar_43_--v_7_549283bd-a84d-4f1e-9110-8df2a8a1adca_1-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/) [Where is the Colorful MacBook?I’m not the least bit ashamed to admit that I hate April Fools Day. First, I’m someone who values high quality information above all else.1 Second, it’s stupid. Yes, I’m a grinch or whatever. I just don’t find any of the jokes – especially the jokes by tech companies – funny.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1014.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Basic-Apple-Guy-thread-photo-2-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/) [How Low Will Apple Go?With regard to the price of a lower-cost MacBook…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1013.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--09_52_22-AM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/) --- 1 An Apple world without Intel, [at least for now](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/)... [↩](#) 2 I mean, would they ever dare go back to "iBook"? I assume not given that the 'i' prefix seems to have run its course post-iPad. Then again, we still have iMacs... What about another 'MacBook' variant? [↩](#) 3 Obviously, there is already a blue MacBook Air – [I'm typing on it right now!](https://spyglass.org/m4-macbook-air-blue-thoughts/) – as well as silver and "gray" (or whatever name Apple chooses for the darker variety these days). I am curious if "yellow" and "pink" end up being far different than the previous "gold" and "rose gold" color configurations... [↩](#) ### Netflix Calls Paramount's Bluff URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-calls-paramount-wbd-bluff/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T11:25:21.000Z [Netflix Blasts ‘Ongoing Distraction’ From Paramount as Warner Bros. Asks for David Ellison’s ‘Best and Final’ OfferThe streamer said that its $83 billion deal is “the only certain path to delivering value to WBD’s stockholders”.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/the_wrap_symbol_black_bkg-1.png)TheWrapLucas Manfredi![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/120825-Paramount-vs.-Netflix-for-WBD.jpg)](https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/deals-ma/netflix-reaction-paramount-warner-bros-reopen-sale-talks/?ref=spyglass.org) The most obvious reference would be to *The Godfather*. So much so that I almost can't believe neither Netflix nor Warner Bros made it in their comments around the re-opening of discussions with Paramount. There are just so many to choose from! Even beyond any number of Corleone family quotes, there's the whole horses-head-in-the-bed bit. And so many others which are especially top of mind right now with [the passing of Robert Duvall](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3g41z58vno?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, yes, [an activist](https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/activist-investor-pushes-warner-to-walk-away-from-netflix-deal-0bbe663e?ref=spyglass.org), Ancora Holdings, already sort of [played that hand](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437107/000092189526000290/ex1topx14a6g06470065%5F021126.pdf?ref=spyglass.org). But come on. I mean, Paramount now literally has to make *an offer that WBD cannot refuse*! Still, for some reason my mind is drawn towards another Paramount release: *Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory*. At the end of that film – **55 year spoiler alert** – Wonka's demeanor suddenly switches from one of seeming disinterest in Charlie and Grandpa Joe as they're leaving, to one of anger. As Grandpa Joe pushes for the free chocolate Charlie was supposed to receive, Wonka points out the contract they signed. "It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get nothing! You lose! Good day, sir!" As Paramount has relentlessly pushed from all angles to suggest that they actually should have been [the winners of the Warner Bros sweepstakes](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/), Netflix has just sort of kept going. Making the case [to Washington](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) ([and Hollywood](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/)) about the deal, but largely ignoring the "loser". Until today. > “Throughout the robust and highly competitive strategic review process, Netflix has consistently taken a constructive, responsive approach with WBD, in stark contrast to Paramount Skydance (PSKY),” Netflix said in a statement. “While we are confident that our transaction provides superior value and certainty, we recognize the ongoing distraction for WBD stockholders and the broader entertainment industry caused by PSKY’s antics.” "Distraction" and "antics" are just the start. > “Accordingly, we granted WBD a narrow seven-day waiver of certain obligations under our merger agreement to allow them to engage with PSKY to fully and finally resolve this matter,” the streamer continued. “This does not change the fact that we have the only signed, board-recommended agreement with WBD, and ours is the only certain path to delivering value to WBD’s stockholders.” This is Wonka getting out the magnifying glass to read the fine print... > Netflix reiterated that its deal with Warner Bros. would “deliver more choice and greater value to audiences worldwide with expanded access to exceptional films and series – both at home and in theaters.” > > It also said the deal “is centered on growth, opportunity, and a reinforced commitment to creating world-class films and television – not consolidation and layoffs” and would expand production capacity, increase its investment in original content and create jobs. In other words, this is Netflix calling Paramount's bluff. First and foremost, the fact that they keep floating the notion of raising their bid, without actually doing so. But also, the notion that they keep trying to spin a narrative that their deal, even without the price change, is better. Netflix has a pretty clear counter argument to that. It's a bit more than one word, but to boil it down: bullshit. > At the same time, Netflix blasted Paramount, arguing it has “repeatedly mischaracterized the regulatory review process by suggesting its proposal will sail through, misleading WBD stockholders about the real risk of their regulatory challenges around the world.” For example, the company noted that it received clearance from foreign investment authorities in Germany on Jan. 27 — the same day as Paramount. > > It also said that the foreign funding backing Paramount-Skydance’s bid is “already raising serious national security concerns” and that it expects the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), Team Telecom in the U.S. and European authorities to scrutinize Paramount’s backing from Middle Eastern investors. > > “In reality, PSKY is far from obtaining all of the regulatory clearances required,” the company said. “Enforcers will focus on the impact of PSKY’s proposal on competition, job losses, reduced output, and downward pressure on wages for film and television workers.” > > Netflix also warned that the Paramount offer would create “significant horizontal overlaps” that will concern antitrust enforcers, including combining two of the five major Hollywood studios, two major theatrical distribution channels, two of the major TV studios, two major news networks and two major sports distributors. Again, this reads like Wonka unloading on poor Grandpa Joe! And it keeps going: > Additionally, the streamer argued that Ellison’s “aggressive financing package, rapid deleveraging plans, and performance track record pose tremendous risks to both the completion of their proposed deal and the industry” and that Paramount would be over-leveraged with approximately $84 billion in debt and a roughly 7 times leverage ratio. > > In order to hit the midpoint of its deleveraging targets, Netflix said it would need to realize roughly $16 billion of cost savings — far in excess of its previously disclosed $6 billion synergy figure — through “greater, even deeper job cuts that would irreparably harm the entertainment industry.” It added that Paramount is undershooting its guidance for 2026 adjusted operating income by 15%, which could mean even more cost cuts. > > “This extraordinary execution risk and track record of operational underperformance could impact PSKY’s ability to fund and close a transaction,” the company concluded. “A business plan that is dependent upon $16 billion in cost savings should be an unmistakable red flag for regulators, policymakers, union leaders and creatives.” In other words, Netflix to Paramount: put up (more money) or shut up. Netflix to WBD shareholders: even if they happen to put up a couple more bucks per share, you'd be crazy to go with their offer. We're so confident in this, that we're giving them a week to come back with something. After that, no more bullshit, let's get this deal done. The problem for Netflix, of course, is that investors – at least those who own huge chunks of WBD shares – undoubtedly only care about the bottom-line here. If Paramount moves to $31 or $32/share, Netflix is likely going to have to counter with something beyond words – no matter how compelling those words may be! It's just math and investors are for the most part, stupid. They need the math to be done for them. But, to a point sort of tangential to Netflix's own points, there might be a reason why Paramount hasn't yet raised their offer: because they're already insanely levered here. This would be a relatively small company buying a much larger one, versus the Netflix situation, which is the opposite. Both are using debt, of course. But only one needs a personal backstop from one of the richest men in the world – and the father of the CEO of the acquiring company – on that debt. It's, um, strange. And it doesn't really speak to an easy path forward here for the newly combined companies. Netflix and Warner Bros though? It may or may not be a success, but [the path is far more straightforward](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/). Perhaps Paramount's play was to push this to the breaking point before raising their bid and trying to run away [with the bag](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). Or maybe Netflix has one more trick up their sleeve as well. Either way, the next week will be fun! Will someone wake up with a horse head in the bed? Or are we about to go for a ride in the glass elevator? All options are back on the table thanks to a clearly pissed off Netflix, who got sick of WBD's meek attempts to tell Paramount to piss off. --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1052.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1007.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1008.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-12.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [Paramount Skydance’s Blockbuster Bid for Warner Bros DiscoveryOne good idea, so many names…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1009.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wbmount2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) [Netflix’s Hard 45With Ted Sarandos’ 45-day theatrical commit for movies, he’s aiming to win the box office, Hollywood, and the Warner Bros deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1010.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--03_36_53-PM-2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) [YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to NetflixWith YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1011.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--09_15_17-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) ### DeepSeek 2: The Movie URL: https://spyglass.org/deepseek-2-the-movie/ Last updated: 2026-05-17T18:28:35.000Z As the world [awaits](https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/) the *actual* second DeepSeek situation, with the company's 'V4' model on the verge of launching seemingly any day now, we may have [gotten](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/bytedances-new-ai-video-model-goes-viral-china-looks-second-deepseek-moment-2026-02-12/?ref=spyglass.org) a second such "[watershed](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/)" moment from a different Chinese player: ByteDance. No, this isn't about TikTok – well, at least not directly – but clearly their new 'Seedance' video model is causing chaos. Certainly in Hollywood, but there are far larger tech ramifications as well. Perhaps most [interesting](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/movies/tom-cruise-brad-pitt-artificial-intelligence-seedance.html?ref=spyglass.org) is that while 'Seedance 1.0' launched without much fanfare – only just about 8 months ago – it's this new 2.0 version which is exploding.[1](#one) And it's easy to see why, quite literally. With the shortest of prompts, the model can create scenes that look like they're from Hollywood movies. Often, at least amongst the ones being shared, because *they are from* Hollywood movies, but with elements tweaked a bit. Or a lot! The whole Brad Pitt vs. Tom Cruise martial arts fight is [getting all the press at the moment](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/ai-video-tom-cruise-brad-pitt-writer-warning-1236504200/?ref=spyglass.org). But just judging from my own social feeds, there are hundreds and undoubtedly thousands of such scenes. And well, you have to sort of see them to believe them. I'm sure those actually in the industry look at them with some level of disdain – "come on, that type of punch would never be thrown" – but I'm also sure that many more in the industry are currently shitting their pants. Why? Because [they won't shut up about it](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/motion-picture-association-ai-seedance-bytedance-tom-cruise-1236661753/?ref=spyglass.org). > "I hate to say it. It’s likely over for us." Rhett Reese, a writer of the *Deadpool* movies, [wrote on Xitter](https://x.com/RhettReese/status/2021446414337966098?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=spyglass.org). This is [yet another](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) [end-of-Hollywood](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) [moment](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/), which sounds suspiciously like another reason for various unions to go on strike again soon, but I digress. It's a big deal. But also probably not as big of a deal as Hollywood would have you believe. Yes, [Mr. Pour Cold Water On It](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) [strikes again](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/)! Look, first and foremost, there are obviously multiple levels of infringement going on here. I'm no lawyer, but I imagine you can't just take a scene from *Attack of the Clones*, [enhance the dialog and anatomy](https://x.com/mustachetoilet/status/2022508762804994526?ref=spyglass.org) and be okay. Sure, there are parody precedents and rights, but not of the actual footage? This becomes even more gray if you believe the models in question were trained on the footage in question, ingesting it alongside myriad other copyrighted work. Was Seedance trained on TikTok videos? ByteDance isn't saying, but surely it must be, at least in part? Maybe the model-makers never [admit to this](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/), or maybe it should be "fair use" to some degree, but come on. That stuff is all fairly straightforward and should be sorted out relatively quickly. Lawsuits will do that. [Disney](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93wq6xqgy1o?ref=spyglass.org). [Paramount](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/paramount-disney-bytedance-cease-and-desist-seedance-ai-infringement-ip-1236663663/?ref=spyglass.org). Etc. ByteDance is [already saying](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/bytedance-seedance-legal-threats-hollywood-1236506693/?ref=spyglass.org) that they're complying with take-down requests. China may not be the US when it comes to such laws, but it's all just too blatant for it to be tenable. Just as it was with Sora, early on. OpenAI moved fast to lock things down and... the app clearly got far less popular and was [far less viral](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) as a result. Funny that. And it points to a secondary issue here. People love this content when it features Hollywood talent they know and love. When it doesn't? It's going to be decidedly less viral. Honestly, it won't be viral at all. You can create stunning, amazing visual scenes with AI and maybe aside from some technical folks being impressed, [the masses will not care](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/). That's just reality. Hollywood, for all its bullshit, works. It's a great marketing engine and flywheel for great talent. But without that talent... Though that also points to the bigger issue and potential outcome here. What if that talent pool suddenly [broadens](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) – exponentially – thanks to the technology we're now seeing in Seedance? Without question, these videos are technically impressive and do point to a world in which Hollywood itself can create such scenes on the cheap. Let's be clear: that's the real fear here. That *Hollywood* will start using such tech to cut out many currently needed in the film production chain. And it's a legitimate concern! Probably not this year or next, but eventually, costs have a way of trying to be cut. Especially when [conglomerates control the means of production](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). This is the way, sadly. Said another way: Hollywood shouldn't be concerned about a kid in their basement using AI to make a rogue version of *Star Wars*, they should be worried about Disney using AI to make a version of *Star Wars* without much of the headcount currently needed to make a *Star Wars*. This is the real disruption here. And yet they are currently worried about the kid in the basement making the viral *Star Wars* clip. Because, hey, *they can't do that!* And yes, as discussed, they technically can't. Well, technically they *technically* *can*, but they *legally* can't. But can they, if, say, they make it for their own purposes using their own, locally-run models? Again, I'll leave that for the lawyers, but the edges start to get grayer still. I'm reminded here more of the [OpenAI/Studio Ghibli debates last year](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/). What if you're an excellent artist and can draw your own art that looks *exactly like* Studio Ghibli work for your own amusement? Is that illegal? No? So why would it be to use AI in such a way for your own purposes? Because you're technically not drawing it? Why is a prompt not a type of art? Because of how the AI was *trained*? Because of something else? Video is more divisive because it's more visceral. But also, when real actors are involved, new lines are drawn. You can't just put Tom Cruise into your video, right? But what if you put [the guy who looks a lot like Tom Cruise](https://www.youtube.com/nottomcruise?ref=spyglass.org) into that video? Actually, let's cut to the extreme: What if, say, Tom Cruise had a twin brother, Dom Cruise, who obviously wasn't Tom Cruise but looked exactly like Tom Cruise? Can you not create footage with Dom because he looks *exactly* like Tom? Obviously not without Dom's permission, but what if you had it? Could you make a *Mission: Impossible*\-like scene with Dom Cruise? This is, of course, theoretical. But also perhaps instructive for future legal fights. If Tom Cruise never filmed any of the scenes in your AI usage, was it still Tom Cruise in them? Where does his likeness end? Again, perhaps back to the training, but what if the model just trained on that guy who looked a lot like Tom Cruise? Not even his hypothetical twin? Further, what if an actor *allows* for their likeness to be used this way? Here I'm thinking about people like Bruce Willis, who [was busy making seemingly endless](https://mgs.blog/the-b-ruce-willis-movie-movement-8cf6e2607698?ref=spyglass.org) B-level direct-to-DVD movies before anyone really knew about his horrible health ailments that were slowly making it impossible for him to work anymore. What if such a situation led an actor to sign over their rights to be reproduced, as it were? Obviously, there would be boundaries to that, but what if they signed them over to an AI player, such as [Disney did with some](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) (decidedly non human) rights with OpenAI? That's probably the best case scenario for all of this because it draws more firm guardrails around such usage. And that's undoubtedly why we're seeing actors like [Matthew McConaughey cut deals](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/matthew-mcconaughey-trademarks-himself-to-fight-ai-misuse-8ffe76a9?ref=spyglass.org) for their AI usage. We're clearly going to see more and more of this for all types of likeness rights. But that's going to obviously take a while to work out. And one suspects there will be dozens or hundreds or even thousands of legal battles between now and then. But at the end of the day, it seems unlikely that the technology gets put back into the proverbial box, so it's a question of the way Hollywood figures out how to leverage it. And if that's simply the (unfortunate) situation of fewer people working on movies. Or if it allows *more movies to be made* and that scale leading to more (but different) jobs... And if – [as I've long been harping on](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) – all of this doesn't lead to a world in which human-made creations aren't *more highly valued* than those created by AI? Because we recognize that it's the input – time – [that matters](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/), and [not just the output](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/). The reality is probably somewhere in between, because a lot of movies will use AI to some degree. But those that are more "human-first" may end up doing better as a result. Not necessarily because the end result is better, but simply because humans tend to like and appreciate work made by other humans. With all that in mind, I'm not sure how much of a 'Sputnik Moment' this will also be. (I mean, can there even be multiple "Sputnik Moments" — "Sputnii Moments"?) I do appreciate that while we were busy worrying about Sora, a Chinese company walks into the bar full-on "hold my beer" style. But I also suspect that a half dozen other models with similar video capabilities will launch shortly. That's just how this tends to work. So the bigger question remains... Is it ["likely over"](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/motion-picture-association-ai-seedance-bytedance-tom-cruise-1236661753/?ref=spyglass.org) for Hollywood? [No, not likely](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/). But it’s [yet another](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) wake up call. The gates are being thrown open and gatekeepers [tend not to like](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) that… But they should, because it may be the key to [all of this working in the end](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/). I will just quote Rhett Reese [again](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/ai-video-tom-cruise-brad-pitt-writer-warning-1236504200/?ref=spyglass.org): > "In next to no time, one person is going to be able to sit at a computer and create a movie indistinguishable from what Hollywood now releases. True, if that person is no good, it will suck. But if that person possesses Christopher Nolan’s talent and taste (and someone like that will rapidly come along), it will be tremendous." Yes. This. The copyright stuff will get sorted. Sure, there may be a period of pain just as there was with piracy, but we'll figure that out. I don't mean to fully downplay this, I just feel the need to counter the doom-and-gloom somewhat. And I can't help but wonder if we're focused on the wrong things here... **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Love It If We Made ItAI will disrupt work. We will adapt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1004.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_54_36-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) [The “AI-Generated Hit Movie” Horror StoryAI-generated movies are coming. But AI-generated “hit movies”?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1005.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-10--2026--03_29_55-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) [A Spirited Debate Around AIThere are fundamental questions likely without good answers; let’s focus on how this needs to work for everyone![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1006.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-7.11.50-PM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) --- 1 Certainly shades of when DeepSeek 'V3' launched to realtive little fanfare before 'R1' launched... [↩](#) ### I Am the Great Glassholio! URL: https://spyglass.org/i-am-the-great-glassholio/ Last updated: 2026-05-17T18:28:08.000Z Remember [what a stir Google Glass caused](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) a decade-plus ago when it launched far too early into the world and gave us the "Glasshole"? Also remember the stir Meta causes when it does... well basically anything? Well, here's a new report from [Kashmir Hill, Kalley Huang, and Mike Isaac for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/technology/meta-facial-recognition-smart-glasses.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Five years ago, Facebook shut down the facial recognition system for tagging people in photos on its social network, saying it wanted to find “[the right balance](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/technology/facebook-facial-recognition.html?ref=spyglass.org)” for a technology that raises privacy and legal concerns. > > Now it wants to bring facial recognition back. > > Meta, Facebook’s parent company, plans to add the feature to its smart glasses, which it makes with the owner of Ray-Ban and Oakley, as soon as this year, according to four people involved with the plans who were not authorized to speak publicly about confidential discussions. The feature, internallycalled “Name Tag,” would let wearers of smart glasses identify people and get information about them via Meta’s artificial intelligence assistant. Look, technology aside, maybe – just maybe – read the room here Meta? People generally seem to at best *distrust* AI and at worst, *dislike* AI. Certainly in your core market at the moment. We can [debate](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) if this is warranted and how much of it has to do with [messaging](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) but... it is what it is right now. And right now, you've managed to get around this issue with the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. I think that's largely been the case because these glasses are not, um, [framed](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) around AI, but rather just as decidedly regular-looking glasses (thanks, EssilorLuxottica) meshed by [seemingly straightforward, fun technology](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/). You know what will change that perception fast? Turning on facial recognition capabilities. You know how I know that? Because [third-parties have already done](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/) the helpful field work for you here ahead of time. If and when you enable this, it's going to be a total shitshow. Naturally, they seem to know this too... > Meta’s plans could change. The Silicon Valley company has been conferring since early last year about how to release a feature that carries “safety and privacy risks,” according to an internal document viewed by The New York Times. The document, from May, described plans to first release Name Tag to attendees of a conference for the blind, which the company did not do last year, before making it available to the general public. > > Meta’s internal memo said the political tumult in the United States was good timing for the feature’s release. > > “We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns,” according to the document from Meta’s Reality Labs, which works on hardware including smart glasses. Jesus Fucking Christ. This is like the ultimate crescendo of cluelessness. You tell me, is "the blind leading the literal blind" too on the nose? No? How about putting in writing your plan to try to put this out there when the rest of the world is distracted? I mean, even if there's validity in that strategy, you don't say that out loud. Actually, you *do* say that out loud, what you don't do is put it in email! I don't really understand how Meta is so bad that this, but I'd be lying if I said it wasn't fun to watch. They're seemingly on the verge of taking a pretty popular product and weaponizing it, turning it into the most [polarizing](https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/) form of AI yet. What [insanely controversial project](https://spyglass.org/meta-operation-kick-puppies/) will Meta think of next? **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [“I need your clothes, your boots, and your motorcycle.”The ‘Terminator’ analogies come for Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1002.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-10-03-at-10.28.27-AM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/) [Meta’s Only Slightly Better Than Burning Books Plan...How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I. Meta debated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster for AI training data... The New York Times Various There is a lot in this NYT report – bylined by five reporters: Cade Metz, Cecilia Kang, Sheera Frenkel, Stuart A. Thompson and![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1000.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Robot-eating-book-painting-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-operation-kick-puppies/) [AI Needs Its Steve JobsEveryone seemingly wants to shoot the current AI messengers…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1001.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--11_53_07-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/) [Meta Looks to Overcome the ‘Glasshole’ StigmaWith Ray-Ban, they can keep the pressure on in the ‘smart glasses’ space as it shifts back to screens…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1003.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-16-at-9.22.27---AM-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) ### Apple Cannot Be Sirious URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-cannot-fix-siri/ Last updated: 2026-05-17T18:27:13.000Z Stop me if you've heard this before: Apple may have to delay the roll-out of some features for the new version of Siri. Oh, you *have* heard this before? [A half-dozen](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) [times just in](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) [the past](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) [few years](https://spyglass.org/siri-2026/)? Weird. It's almost like Apple is having [some major issues](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) with their AI implementation and strategy. They should probably look into that. Perhaps before [Mark Gurman does for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/apple-s-ios-26-4-siri-update-runs-into-snags-in-internal-testing-ios-26-5-27?ref=spyglass.org)? > Apple Inc.’s long-planned upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant has run into snags during testing in recent weeks, potentially pushing back the release of several highly anticipated functions. > > After planning to include the new capabilities in iOS 26.4 — an operating system update slated for March — Apple is now working to spread them out over future versions, according to people familiar with the matter. That would mean possibly postponing at least some features until at least iOS 26.5, due in May, and iOS 27, which comes out in September. [Fool me once](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/), shame on you, [fool me twice](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/), shame on me, fool me a dozen times... just shame. [Shame. Shame. Shame.](https://giphy.com/gifs/shame-popkey-cone-gyYJYyCPezUWI?ref=spyglass.org) As I see it, Apple has two problems. The first one is the bigger one: **they need to fix Siri**. But the second one is tangentially related to that quest: **they need to plug the leak of detailed information about the Siri roadmap and timeline.** Officially, Apple has only said that they planned to launch a new version of Siri in 2026\. This is embarrassing in and of itself considering that it is [functionality](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/) they [promised](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) at WWDC *two years ago* and [infamously](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) ran commercials about new features even though it was [effectively vaporware](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) at the time. Many of those features got [pushed into 2025](https://spyglass.org/springtime-2025-siri/). And then they had to [reshuffle the entire effort](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) – [including the team overseeing AI](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) – which pushed everything into 2026\. We're only two months into 2026, so normally Apple would have some time here. The problem is that they incredible amount of leaks, almost all of which result in Mark Gurman scoops for *Bloomberg*, have seemingly given the public far more granular details about the timing and yes, issues. Apple is a famously secretive company, and yet these highly specific leaks have been going on for years at this point. It's honestly pretty weird. I used to do such reporting for a living with my share of Apple scoops back in the day. When those would happen, Apple would move fast and decisively to try to plug any holes, and they often would. I'm honestly not sure what to make of the fact that they haven't here – again, over years and years. And this is a perfect example of how damaging it can be to the company. Again, without these reports, no one outside the company would likely know that there are ongoing issues. Instead: > In the spring of last year, Apple [delayed the rollout](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-07/apple-confirms-delay-of-ai-infused-personalized-siri-assistant?ref=spyglass.org), saying the new Siri would instead arrive in 2026\. It never announced more specific timing. Internally, though, Apple settled on the [March 2026 target](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/apple-targets-spring-2026-for-release-of-delayed-siri-ai-upgrade?ref=spyglass.org) — tying it to iOS 26.4 — a goal that remained in place as recently as last month. > > But testing uncovered fresh problems with the software, prompting the latest postponements, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. Siri doesn’t always properly process queries or can take too long to handle requests, they said. Thanks to Gurman's reporting, the entire market has been guided to expect a new version of Siri coming in that iOS 26.4 update. And given that iOS 26.3 just launched yesterday, the first beta builds of this new Siri update are undoubtedly imminent. In fact, we know the exact targeted week: February 23\. How? [*Yet another* Gurman report](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-08/apple-readies-iphone-17e-new-siri-entry-level-ipad-ipad-air-and-macbook-pro-mldr3hpk?ref=spyglass.org). On something as granular as the timing for a beta roll-out. Anyway, everyone – [including myself](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) – was starting to get excited. Apple was [*finally* going to fix Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/)! Of course, we all had [no reason to believe](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) Apple here [after 15 years of such promises](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/), except that this time they made the hard (and correct) decision to outsource the AI work, going so far as to [*announce* the partnership with Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) to use Gemini. That's how dire the situation had become. The super secretive Apple, a company which famously aims to own and control their entire stack, had to publicly announce this partnership – [with a major rival](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/), no less – despite it being a de facto admission that they messed up Siri badly enough, and their AI strategy more broadly, that they couldn't fix it themselves. And they had to announce this, in part, because of the reporting on the matter. Everyone knew [they were weighing](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) partnering to fix Siri. And that [a bake-off was going on](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/). And between whom. So Apple had little choice but to comment on it when it was over and Google was picked as the winner – never mind the fact that Apple may have wanted to pick Anthropic but the AI startup wanted too much money to use customize Claude, [per who else](https://9to5mac.com/2026/01/30/apple-runs-on-anthropic-says-mark-gurman/?ref=spyglass.org)... With the announcement, it looked like Apple was finally putting the AI shitshow behind them. The market cheered. And again, thanks to these Gurman reports, we knew to expect to see some progress shortly with these beta builds. Not so fast... > In recent days, Apple instructed engineers to use the upcoming iOS 26.5 in order to test new Siri features, implying that the functionality may have been moved back by at least one release. Internal versions of that update now include a notice describing the addition of some Siri enhancements. > > One feature is especially likely to slip: the expanded ability for Siri to tap into personal data. That technology would let users ask the assistant to, say, search old text messages to locate a podcast shared by a friend and immediately play it. The tapping into personal data feature was literally the marquee selling-point of Siri in that WWDC 2024 keynote. We're clearly going to go a full two years without Apple being able to ship that, even despite the Google partnership. To be clear, I found it a little odd that the timing of the first Siri fixes were coming so soon after Apple announced the partnership. While there are undoubtedly some things that the two sides [could plug-and-play](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/), it seems like there might be a million little edge cases for things that would break when swapping models. And well, they're breaking... > Testers have also reported accuracy issues, as well as a bug that causes Siri to cut users off when they’re speaking too quickly. And there are problems handling complex queries that require longer processing times. > > Another challenge: The new Siri sometimes falls back on its existing integration with OpenAI’s ChatGPT instead of using Apple’s own technology. That can happen even when Siri should be capable of handling the request. Again, these details are beyond embarrassing. And makes it seem ridiculous that Apple would tout the partnership publicly – certainly without giving an updated time frame as to when to expect the fruits of such labor. Instead, we have all been going off of Gurman's reporting. And so when timetables inevitably slip... It's more egg on the face for Apple! And while you might think the public doesn't care about such things, the "Siri sucks" narrative has clearly gone [mainstream](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTefnhbg0Ig&ref=spyglass.org). As has the "[Apple is behind in AI](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/)" talk, which had been problematic for their stock price. Yes, it has bounced back a bit thanks in part to being [a hedge against](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) the [Big Tech CapEx situation](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/), but more so on [the resurgence of the iPhone sales](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). But still, Apple spent years and years as the most valuable company in the world, now they're battling to stay in second or even third place on most days. Why? AI of course. Whether or not you believe in its value right now, the long-term prospects have boosted all of their competitors. And it has fueled this narrative that Apple is behind, and continuing to slide. You know what doesn't help that narrative? Reports that Siri continues to slip... Anyway, my point is that it's wild how Apple cannot plug these leaks when its so clearly hurting the company in very tangible ways. But yes, the bigger issues seems to remain that they cannot fix Siri. And while I was excited for this Google partnership and for Apple to put this sad chapter behind them, I'm no longer sure they'll actually be able to. And that Siri may continue to suck for the 15th year in a row... --- **Update February 13, 2026**: After the report of the Siri delay (and [a report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/ftc-tim-cook-apple-news-censorship.html?ref=spyglass.org) about the regulators looking into Apple News bias) Apple had its worst day on the stock market in nearly a year, closing down 5%. This prompted [Apple to tell *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/apple-stock-worst-day-ftc-siri.html?ref=spyglass.org) that the new Siri remains on track for 2026 – which is exactly the framing I described above and again points to why the leaks are such a problem for the company. --- **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Finally Agrees to Fix SiriThey’ll swap Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-997.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-6--2025--01_36_23-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) [Why So Siri-ous, IndeedHow new Siri parallels old Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-998.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/screen-shot-2011-10-16-at-3-20-12-pm-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) [The Voice Assistant Who Cried WolfCan Siri meet the moment this time?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-999.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Siri-Cartoon-Wolf-Scene-2-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) ### Love It If We Made It URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-future-work/ Last updated: 2026-05-12T12:59:04.000Z Seemingly my entire social feed is filled right now with people sharing ["Something Big Is Happening"](https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening?ref=spyglass.org), an essay by entrepreneur Matt Shumer. I think it's a pretty good overview of the current situation in AI meant to be read by the layperson so that they can share the thoughts for discussion around the proverbial dinner table. And actually, so they can get prepared for what's coming and take action. To that end, he kicks off by framing it as a pandemic-like situation, where the world is about to change. Time to stockpile that toilet paper and [hold on to your butts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKK4KmDlj8U&ref=spyglass.org). It's mainly good because it's digestible – unlike, say, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's latest essay, ["The Adolescence of Technology"](https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology?ref=spyglass.org), which Shumer cites, and which is about 20,000 words. Shumer's post clocks in closer to 5,000 words. So "short" that [he actually published it on Xitter](https://x.com/mattshumer%5F/status/2021256989876109403?ref=spyglass.org) – which remains just a truly awful place to read anything longer than 140 characters, but I digress... My read on this read is that it's a bit too alarmist, but still a useful thought exercise for most people. I mainly say that because my belief is that for as fast as all of this is moving – and to be clear, *it is* moving insanely fast – I suspect the ramifications will still take far longer to play out. [I make this "cold water" prediction](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) quite often these days, but it's nothing profound or particularly insightful, it's simply the way most things play out, certainly with technology. Yes, the pandemic swept in and changed things faster. But that's part of why it's not a great analogy here. Is the world about to change in a couple weeks? No. At the same time, is the world about to change in more long-term ways than it did from that pandemic? Yes. After reading the post, I actually followed Shumer's advice and had AI do my work for me. My "work" here being to respond to this essay – how meta! I asked Claude – and specifically, Opus 4.6, one of the breakthrough models that Shumer cites – to study some of my previous writing and write a response in my style. That response, which I'll paste below these words that I actually did write – I swear! – is pretty good! I don't think it nails my exact style, but it has its moments – and honestly, others can probably judge that better than I can, as I'm maxxxx biased in this case. It makes some good counter points, including about the pandemic analogy, which may have shaped my own paragraph above! I'd like to think I would have said that regardless, and perhaps the AI just was able to predict that, but... how far down this rabbit hole do we want to go here?! Anyway, I laughed at points. ("The virus didn't need a Substack.") And was generally impressed by the output.[1](#one) I often find this to be the case with Claude, which [I've recently been working into my daily routine](https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/) alongside ChatGPT and Gemini (yes, I pay for each, to constantly test them, which is also Shumer's advice, which I definitely agree with, though it's certainly fine for most people to just pick, and pay for, *one* to test). Wait. I should back up. As I'm suggesting above, as strange as it may seem, I actually haven't used AI to write something for me in my own style before. I mean, I think I did in the very early days of ChatGPT to see what might happen, but it was pretty bad and rudimentary at that point. In the intervening years, I've both never had the urge to do this or felt the need. It's not that I'm afraid of doing it, and not even really that I think it's below me (though yes, I do), I just really don't see the point. Because to me, as yes, [I've written about before](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/), the point of writing is just as much about the process of doing it as much as the output. Actually, I think it's far more about that process, which is my big takeaway from our current AI revolution and this latest experiment. Yes, AI could write a rebuttal for me. And yes, it can be quite good! But what is the point of that? Just to put something out there? To what end? I guess maybe if I wanted a quick and easy way to "thought lead". But even then, to what end? I wouldn't actually be "thought leading" because they wouldn't actually be my thoughts! They may look and/or sound like them, but that doesn't change the fact that they're not them in that I didn't actually *think* them. That might not matter to others, [but it matters to me](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/)! Because again, what I get out of writing this is from the very process of writing it! The thinking about it! Forming thoughts and letting my mind wander. Expressing my actual opinion on a matter, not outsourcing that thinking to technology. Sure, I guess if I wanted to make a quick buck in monetizing those thoughts in some way, I could do that. But we have a word for that, it's called spam. All of this points to [some thoughts I had around the whole "Moltbook" situation](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/). We're in a world where bots can talk to other bots, and I think that's interesting and eventually useful for all of the "agentic" stuff we want and need AI to do for us. But there remain a lot of things that you're going to want to do for yourself. Not because an AI can't do them, but because you actually derive value from doing them. To me, writing is the best example of that. But there are many others. And we're going to increasingly discover them in this new world we're entering. Said another way, and to harp on the point I keep making, the inputs matter just as much as the outputs, and in the Age of AI, they're probably going to matter even more! The clear impetus for Shumer's post is that he's a developer and his "holy shit" moment was realizing that that OpenAI's latest GPT-5.3 Codex model could fully do the coding work he needed, from writing, to testing, to deploying. This is clearly where AI is going to have the biggest and most immediate impact on our world. It's already happening in the fact that, as Shumer notes, the AI is being used to write the AI applications themselves. You don't have to extrapolate out too far to see a world in which AI starts improving itself, and this is the "breakaway" moment that Amodei and others have been talking about and warning us about. It will happen and it is something we need to watch closely, obviously. But the disruption of the day-to-day code writing seems unlikely to play out as seamlessly across other industries. As many have noted in the past, AI is uniquely suited to write code because of the way LLMs work. Other jobs and just jobs-to-be-done will likely require [other variants of AI](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) that perhaps aren't as probabilistic. Even still, I might argue that if there's no value that developers get out of the *input* of coding – actually doing it – perhaps it's better if it is automated away? I suspect some developers do derive value from coding though. So they might want to do it anyway? Or it might be a hybrid situation where they do the parts they want – perhaps the creative parts – and they let AI do the rest. This has already been happening, of course. And if there is a coding job to be done that can simply be automated away with a few commands, that's probably for the best for everyone aside from maybe the entry-level coders who just spent a lot of time learning a specific programming language. That sucks for them, but I also suspect they'll go on to find other and better uses of their time! In my own world, [I think about email](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/). I've always hated it and would love not to have to do it. So I will gladly outsource that task to AI if and when the technology is up for it. But even then, there will be parts that I want to and/or need to do so that the knowledge from some of that work [is in my own brain](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/). The above probably applies to some legal work as well (another example Shumer cites and is obviously hot right now in the world of AI). There's the tedious document reviews that a human probably doesn't need to or want to be doing. But there will undoubtedly be other legal work that humans actually *want* to be doing. Maybe AI could do some of it, but if the lawyers actually derive value from it, maybe it's worth the cost. The cost being time and perhaps a lack of cost savings for the law firm (which, admittedly, is another complicated matter). In general, [we will need to find new business models](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) for many jobs. But that has been the case throughout much of history. And actually, I suspect that [human-created work will actually *rise* in value](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) in this new age. I know this is hard to see now, but again, look to the inputs. A human being – your fellow human being – took time out of their lives to do this. I just hope this doesn't break down into yet another class battle, where the wealthy pay for human-made creations while those less fortunate "settle" for the AI work. We'll see... Here's where I'll note that I think Shumer's strongest point, and one that resonates with me the most, is about [how best to situate our children](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) for this new world. The answer, of course, is that nobody knows. But to that end, I think his point about making sure that kids are malleable enough to adapt, both in their education and eventually in their work, will be critical. Because it's not like things are just going to change and that will be it. The situation – the world – will keep evolving. Again, it's not a pandemic-like situation. It's perhaps more like climate change. This is all a long-winded – though less long-winded than Shumer's post, which itself was less long-winded than Amodei's post – way of saying I think we're going to make it. AI is going to disrupt a lot of tasks and industries, but not in two weeks and not in two months, and probably not even in two years for many jobs. For coding? Probably. Legal document review? Ideally. Email? Hopefully! But things like writing? I mean, if you want to task AI with that, then sure! But you might not want to, at least not for everything. That's the point. We're going to figure out the right balance here. Just because AI may eventually be able to do everything doesn't mean that it should. Or that it will. Because we will choose for it not to for certain things we wish to do and/or that we get value out of. Longer-term our mindset around work will have to shift from tedious tasks that we have to do to recognizing and focusing on the work that we *want* to do. This sounds great! But I suspect that it's going to be no less of a hard shift to make, mentally, emotionally, and even physically. Because it will just be different. As the focal point shifts from the output to the input... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-11--2026--03_51_13-PM-1.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-990.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) [It’s The Thought That CountsThe diminished state of thinking could be decimated by AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-991.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--10_58_44-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/) [Sometimes It’s Too SlowWith data centers in space. “For shure”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-993.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--07_55_54-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) [With AI, Email May Actually Morph Into a Task ListThe end of email might look like bots emailing other bots for you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-992.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_computer_to_send_email_--ar_21_--v__70f1b1d6-5b7f-4a32-8df2-a63be7731662_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) [Growing Up AI-FirstPondering how kids might navigate the world post-ChatGPT![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-996.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hero-image.fill.size_1248x702.v1734033122-11.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) [It’s the End of the Web as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)AI is disrupting web search and publishing, perhaps for the better…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-995.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_stack_of_newspapers_on_fire_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_c4decf79-2261-4087-9211-ca7e93b379eb_2-12.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) --- 1 For the record, I would have relied less heavily on crypto and certain VR as the counter-examples as they're simply not strong enough points. Sorry Claude. [↩](#) --- 🤖 ****Below, find "Love It If We Made It" (Claude's Version)** # Something Big Is Always Happening There's a blog post making the rounds this week by Matt Shumer — an AI startup founder and investor — called "Something Big Is Happening." It's essentially a letter to friends and family telling them to wake up because AI is about to change everything, like, *now*. It uses the COVID pandemic as its framing device. It predicts the imminent end of most white-collar jobs. And it has gone quite viral on the strength of its urgency and its "I'm just telling you what happened to me" sincerity. I think the post is well-intentioned. I also think it's almost perfectly engineered to be wrong in the ways that matter most. --- Let's start with the COVID comparison, because it tells you a lot about the rest of the piece. Shumer writes that we're in the "this seems overblown" phase of something much bigger than COVID. The implication being that the skeptics are the ones who weren't paying attention in February 2020, and that he — an AI insider — is the one stockpiling toilet paper. The problem is that COVID worked as a shock precisely because it was *fast* and *binary*. One week you were going to restaurants, the next week restaurants didn't exist. AI is not that. AI is a technology that has been improving — sometimes rapidly, sometimes not — for over a decade. We've had approximately 47 "everything just changed" moments in the past three years alone. Some of them were real! Most of them were vibes. COVID didn't need evangelists to write blog posts telling you it was real. It just *was* real, and it hit you whether you believed in it or not. If AI were truly at the "two weeks before lockdown" stage, the last thing you'd need is a 5,000-word essay begging people to pay attention. The virus didn't need a Substack. --- Now, to be fair, there's a kernel of truth in the piece. AI *has* gotten significantly better. The models released in early February — Opus 4.6, GPT-5.3 Codex — are genuinely impressive. If you haven't used the best available models recently, you probably should. On this point, Shumer and I agree completely. But there's a vast chasm between "these tools are really good and getting better" and "50% of entry-level white-collar jobs will be eliminated within one to five years." And Shumer leaps across that chasm with the confidence of someone who has never watched a technology adoption cycle play out in the real world. I have. I spent years covering the tech industry as a reporter and then over a decade as a venture investor. And the single most reliable pattern I've observed is this: the people *building* a technology are constitutionally incapable of accurately predicting how fast society will absorb it. They always, always think it will be faster than it is. Not because they're lying, but because they're extrapolating from their own experience — and their own experience is not representative of anything. Shumer's big revelation is that he can now describe an app to AI and have it built without much intervention. I believe him! That's genuinely cool. But the leap from "AI can write code for an AI startup founder who has been using these tools for six years" to "AI will replace your lawyer, your doctor, and your accountant within a couple of years" is... well, it's a leap. It's the kind of leap you make when you've been too deep inside the bubble for too long. --- Let me address the specific claims, because they deserve scrutiny. Shumer cites Dario Amodei's prediction that AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years, and then says "many people in the industry think he's being conservative." He presents this as though it were a sober assessment from a credible authority. And Amodei *is* credible — probably the most thoughtful CEO in AI. But it's also worth noting that Amodei runs a company whose valuation is directly tied to the belief that AI will become extraordinarily powerful extraordinarily quickly. Every AI CEO in the world has an incentive to hype the timeline. That doesn't make them wrong. But it does mean you should apply a discount rate to their predictions, the same way you would to any CEO talking about the future of their own industry. The METR benchmarks get cited — AI completing tasks that would take a human expert "nearly five hours," with the number doubling every seven months. This sounds terrifying until you think about what "tasks" means in the context of a benchmark. Benchmarks measure what benchmarks measure. They're useful indicators of progress, but the history of AI is littered with benchmarks that were "solved" long before the real-world equivalent of the benchmark was anywhere close to solved. Passing the bar exam on a multiple-choice test is not the same thing as practicing law. Completing a coding task end-to-end in a controlled environment is not the same thing as shipping production software at a Fortune 500 company with legacy systems, compliance requirements, and a VP who keeps changing the spec. Then there's the "AI helped build itself" moment, which Shumer presents as the most important and least understood development. OpenAI said GPT-5.3 Codex was "instrumental in creating itself" — used to debug training, manage deployment, and diagnose evaluations. This is interesting! It is also... not the singularity. Software has been used to build software for as long as software has existed. Compilers compile themselves. The question isn't whether AI can contribute to AI development — of course it can — but whether this creates the runaway recursive loop that Shumer implies. And on that, the evidence is far from clear. The gains from AI-assisted AI development could plateau. They could be large but linear. The "intelligence explosion" framing assumes a specific exponential dynamic that is not guaranteed by the underlying mechanics. --- The most revealing part of the piece, honestly, is the advice section. Because the advice is... fine? "Start using AI seriously." Yes. "Lean into what's hardest to replace." Sure. "Get your financial house in order." Always good advice, AI or no AI. "Spend an hour a day experimenting." Not bad! But here's what's funny about this: if AI were truly about to do to white-collar work what COVID did to in-person dining — which is the explicit comparison Shumer makes — then "spend an hour a day experimenting with AI" would be hilariously inadequate advice. You don't tell someone to spend an hour a day experimenting with pandemic preparedness when the pandemic is two weeks away. The modesty of the advice quietly undermines the extremity of the prediction. What Shumer is *actually* describing, if you strip away the apocalyptic framing, is a technology that is very useful, improving quickly, and that will probably change a lot of jobs over the next five to ten years. Which is... correct. And also not a novel observation. And also not COVID. It's closer to the internet, which did in fact transform virtually every industry — but over the course of *decades*, not months, and in ways that were far more nuanced and surprising than anyone predicted in 1995. --- I should be clear about something: I am not an AI skeptic. I use these tools daily. I've tracked the capital expenditure numbers — the hundreds of billions that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are committing to AI infrastructure. I take this seriously. I've invested in companies in this space. The technology is real and it is going to matter enormously. But I've also been around long enough to recognize the genre of what Shumer wrote. It's the "I need you to understand what I understand" post. The "I've been holding back but now I owe you the truth" post. It's a genre that recurs with every major technology wave, and it always has the same structure: personal revelation, exponential trend extrapolation, dire warning, call to action. I've seen this post written about the internet, about mobile, about crypto, about the metaverse. Sometimes the underlying technology really is transformative. It just never transforms on the timeline or in the way that the "something big is happening" post predicts. The people who wrote the equivalent post in 1995 about the internet were *right* about the big picture and *wrong* about almost every specific prediction. The people who wrote it about crypto were... mostly just wrong. The question with AI isn't whether it matters — it obviously does — but whether the specific doom-and-urgency framing is warranted by the current evidence. I don't think it is. Not yet, anyway. And I say that as someone who has felt the ground shake — perhaps a bit earlier than most, given where I sit. But earthquakes and volcanos are different things. The ground shaking doesn't necessarily mean everything is about to be buried in lava. What I'd actually tell the friends and family that Shumer is addressing: use these tools. They're remarkable. Pay the $20 a month. Experiment. Be curious, not panicked. And when someone who runs an AI startup tells you that AI is about to change everything in the next one to five years, remember that someone who ran a crypto exchange told you the same thing in 2021, and someone who ran a VR company told you the same thing in 2016\. The technology may be different this time. The incentive structure for the predictions is exactly the same. 🙏 ****Thank you for reading. – Claude** **Thanks for reading all the way to the bottom! If you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) ### YouTube TV Finally Kills Cable URL: https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-kills-cable/ Last updated: 2026-02-10T17:32:47.000Z [He's dead, Jim](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt5zD%5F6n-eA&ref=spyglass.org). _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### It's The Thought That Counts URL: https://spyglass.org/death-of-thought-ai-edition/ Last updated: 2026-05-08T08:48:47.000Z One thing that I think about a lot is not thinking a lot about what I don't think about a lot. That's cute, but also true. All I'm saying is that I wish I had more time to think. And I really do think about not having enough time to think. And it's something I've been thinking about – [and writing about](https://500ish.com/the-death-of-thought-ecba09d1d21e?ref=spyglass.org) – for years. I think about this because it's only in the moments where I do find time to think that I think about such things, and realize what a shame it is to not have that time in our modern world. At best, we all have a sliver of the time we used to have. And while I suspect every generation talks about – and yes, thinks about – this issue with their own waves of technology entering lives and changing such dynamics, I do also believe that the past 25 to 30 years have accelerated the change. Basically, the internet was step one, the search engine was step two, the smartphone was step three, and now, of course, AI is step four. To be clear, this isn't some sort of "TV is rotting your brain" argument – well, it might be, in a way – but it's not really about the content here. Some of it is good, some of it is bad (the same, of course, could be said for television), but it's the fact that it's just everywhere, every second of every day. Basically all of human knowledge and output is right there in your pocket and so it's going to be right there in your hand when a free moment of time opens up. It's not necessarily good or bad – again, it can be both good and bad – it's just reality. And such reality has rendered thinking, the process of actually getting lost in thought, all but extinct. People talk about this in the context of "boredom" and how it has been more or less eliminated from lives thanks to the above technological steps. Boredom obviously has a natural negative connotation, but in recent years everyone seems to have woken up to some *upsides* to it. One, beyond perhaps learning patience, is thinking. Letting your mind wander. Because there's nothing else to do. Again, I can only speak for myself, but with the benefit of hindsight, I actually think it was pretty critical to my childhood and growing up. Thinking obviously isn't something you learn how to do, but at the same time, I believe that if you don't actually practice it, you naturally won't be as good at it as someone else who devotes more time to the lost art. And that alone may be the best argument against kids and smartphones. Ensuring they have that time to think without the [endless feeds](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/) and streams. And to learn *how* to think without Google [and now ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/). This is one of the things I love most about writing. It's a forcing function to make you sit down and think. Sure, there are still distractions, but at least for myself, if I can actually sit down to do it, I can focus and thoughts naturally form. This is happening right now. Even though I've thought briefly about this topic most of the day, only to allow myself to be distracted by something else so as not to fully think about it. But [it's the *input* that matters just as much as the output](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). And I suspect the entire world is going to wake up to that notion in the Age of AI. Listening to the people building this new technology and setting forth the notions of what change it will bring, you hear time and time again the notion of freeing up time. I have a hard time believing this will be the case because history is full of examples where time freed up by technology is simply filled in by other things. The positive side of that equation is that it often naturally means at least some level of productivity growth. And that comes with a potential silver-lining in that while there are all the fears of job displacement, it's very likely that people find new jobs to do (while yes, recognizing that there will likely be a transition period that is rough for many). The negative side of the above is that we end up in a state where we're somehow busier than ever. Again, that would be my guess as to one way AI plays out at the highest level. The new technology starts being deployed to do more things that we currently do, but instead of going to the proverbial or literal beach, we just find new things to do. This is not profound, it's prosaic. It's simply what always happens. And with my argument above, it's a bad situation because that beach would have at least theoretically given us all more time to think. And I think that could be a really good thing for humanity. But instead, I suspect, we'll continue to think even less. Those building AI also like to paint a picture of the technology achieving breakthroughs that humans simply cannot. Or, perhaps we could, but it's more a matter of happenstance when we do. Like the ideas around scientific discovery, where they're basically using AI to "brute force" every possible scenario in a way that no human could do in a lifetime. That's undoubtedly a good thing – and likely a very good thing – for areas like drug discovery. But it still points back to the world where humans have stopped achieving such breakthroughs because we've stopped thinking. We've essentially outsourced the thinking to these thinking machines that are far more capable of thinking at scale than we can ever hope to be. So why bother? Yet we're undoubtedly also too heavily discounting some intangibles there, like "eureka" moments. Perhaps they are simple matters of chance where a human stumbles into something by simply thinking. But you do have to wonder what is lost if those go away... Especially if you believe that machine thinking is [not the same thing as human thinking](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/), and that there are plusses and minuses to each, but that the human brain may, for example, introduce chemical variables that leads to an output – a thought – that a machine can only replicate after the fact but can't come up with out of the blue. And what if it's the mere *process* of thinking that matters to humans, not the actual thoughts? Again, [the inputs, not the outputs](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/). And yes, you could say that humans should work *with* the machines to augment such breakthroughs. And it's a nice thought and I hope that it happens. But it also seems just as likely that we'll continue to offload more and more to such systems while we go and do something else. It's like how no one knows phone numbers any more, or directions, or math, or spelling, or many, many other things where we've essentially outsourced such knowledge to different types of technology over the past few decades. Again, this is convenient and good in many ways, undoubtedly even most ways, but there are also downsides to offloading all of this. Over the past 20 years or so, we've all learned to just Google something when we don't know an answer. And AI is the evolution of that, with even less human hunting – and yes, thinking – needed. "I've given that to my AI to think through and I'll be alerted when it's done." This is happening. Right now. We used to have to take time to think about things. To remember things. And that naturally led our brains in myriad directions. To wander in our minds. But we don't really do that anymore. And I fear we're on the edge of doing that even less! Anyway, just a thought I've been thinking about and yes, avoiding thinking about. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--11_00_17-PM-1.png) ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/Spyglass-Rings-----Brand.png) **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****⭕️** [****Join The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup) 👇 ****Earlier, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Sometimes It’s Too SlowWith data centers in space. “For shure”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-982.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-9--2026--07_55_54-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/) [A Car By the People Who Would Have Designed the Apple CarLet there be Luce!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-983.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/FERRARI-LUCE_SHIFTER_EVENT_PHOTO_sRGB_4K_72DPI_16x9-2-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-luce-apple-car/) ### A Car By the People Who Would Have Designed the Apple Car URL: https://spyglass.org/ferrari-luce-apple-car/ Last updated: 2026-02-10T11:54:24.000Z [Inside Ferrari’s Luce EV: The Jony Ive interior is hereA look inside the first all-electric Ferrari, designed by LoveFrom.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-41.ico)Yahoo!Tim Stevens![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/FERRARI-LUCE_DRIVER_VIEW_HERO_sRGB_6K_72DPI_16X9.jpg)](https://www.engadget.com/transportation/evs/inside-ferraris-luce-ev-the-jony-ive-interior-is-here-130000211.html?ref=spyglass.org) Remember the Apple Car? You know, [the project](https://spyglass.org/tag/apple-car/) that was [all anyone](https://spyglass.org/apple-car-boondoggle/) wanted to [talk about](https://spyglass.org/the-apple-car-that-wasnt/) before AI took the world – and Apple – by [storm](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)? Honestly, given the current state of the car market, Apple was probably wise to [kill it off](https://spyglass.org/rip-apple-car/), with manufacturers rushing to pivot from their all-in-on-electric strategies amidst a shift in politics, incentives, and perhaps taste. Oh yes, and tariffs. Anyway, we can still dream about what could have been. And that dream sure seems more tangible now with the Ferrari "Luce". Their first all-electric vehicle, which [I wrote about back in 2024](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/) before it had a name. Why? Because they had contracted [LoveFrom](https://www.lovefrom.com/?ref=spyglass.org) to work on the design. Yes, [the company](https://spyglass.org/tag/lovefrom/) led by Jony Ive (the part that didn't go over to OpenAI [with the io acquisition](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/)). > If you're familiar with the designs that Apple produced under Ive's tenure, particularly in the era beginning with the iPhone 4, you'll feel right at home here. The overall aesthetic is one dominated by squircles and circles, all with absolute, minute perfection and symmetry. > > At first blush, it's a bit clinical, but dig deeper, start poking and prodding, and you'll see there's a real sense of charm here. Fun little details and genuinely satisfying tactility begin to reveal themselves. The key, for example, has a yellow panel with an E Ink background. Push the key into the magnetized receiver in the center console, and the yellow on the key dims, moving across to glow through the top of the glass shifter. It’s meant to symbolize a sort of transference of life. Tim Stevens does a nice job conveying the touches here, but you should really watch [the video shared by Mike Matas](https://x.com/mike%5Fmatas/status/2020850857819205700?ref=spyglass.org), the designer you may know from projects back in the day such as [Facebook Paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook%5FPaper?ref=spyglass.org) and various work within the Apple ecosystem – including *at Apple*, and yes, more recently at LoveFrom. The entire project looks like a beautiful um, *hybrid* of digital and tactile elements. That's notable as one of the knocks against Ive towards the end of his Apple tenure is that form was winning out over function, with buttons cast away in favor of whittling down the device to just the essence – which mainly meant, of course, the screen. But despite Tesla's best – [IMO, sort of tacky](https://spyglass.org/rivian-looks-nicer-than-tesla/) – attempts, that doesn't really fly in vehicles. So it's great to hear LoveFrom is inspired by both worlds: > The shifter isn't the only thing that's glass. There are 40-odd pieces of Corning Gorilla Glass scattered throughout the cockpit, everything from the shifter surround to the slightly convex lenses in the gauge cluster. What isn't glass is aluminum, much of it anodized in your choice of three colors: gray, dark gray and rose gold. What does that sound like?... > The center display is a 10.12-inch OLED perforated with plenty of holes to allow some pleasingly chunky toggle switches through, plus a glass volume knob. The little clock in the upper-right can turn into a stopwatch or a compass, with its needles swinging about depending on the mode. The whole central control panel pivots and swivels. Just grab the big handle below and drag it where you want it. I bet that swivel feels just great... > Ive was on hand to unveil the interior, clearly a little nervous about showing all this for the first time. After five years of working confidentially on this topic, Ive said he was "enormously excited" and "completely terrified" to provide our first real glimpse at the Luce. > > Marc Newson, who founded LoveFrom with Ive, said: "Jony and I share a really, really deep interest in automotive things and vehicles. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that that is probably a hobby of both of ours." And it was almost much more than a hobby, as Newson was of course at Apple as well! While obviously the interior of a Ferrari – no word on pricing yet – would have undoubtedly been different than what an Apple Car may have looked like (it certainly wouldn't have been cheap, probably not in the Ferrari range – or maybe the "Pro" model may have been), there's probably a lot of ideas that transferred over... **One more thing:** remember who is on [the board of Ferrari](https://www.ferrari.com/en-EN/corporate/board-directors?ref=spyglass.org)? One Eddy Cue... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/FERRARI-LUCE_DRIVER_VIEW_HERO_sRGB_6K_72DPI_16X9.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/CkFj6ZKYfiquDsUZDqJD6X-1600-80.jpg.webp) Yes, the clock is analog - but also hybrid, as it can switch to a different type of piece with a button press. And yes, the swivel bar doubles as a palm rest for using the toggles. And yes, if you must, you can touch the screen too... --- **Update February 10, 2026**: This *Wallpaper* profile goes far more in-depth and with more images to boot. Beyond the overall clear emphasis on physical toggles versus touchscreens which "doesn't belong in cars" according to Ive, the "LAUNCH" component is probably my favorite (in the cars own custom typeface, naturally). They have yet to show off the actual exterior design of the car. That will happen in May. Interesting to note that this is *not* being targeted at usual Ferrari buyers... [Your first glimpse at the much-anticipated Ferrari LuceWe travelled to San Francisco to be one of the first to see Ferrari’s first EV, designed by design royalty, Jony Ive and Marc Newson![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/fpqjm7sfgp1656622778.png)Wallpaper\*Jonathan Bell![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/xfDcbDRiDY8qbfnPb8tuJ5-2560-80.jpg)](https://www.wallpaper.com/transportation/ferrari-luce-ev-first-look-jony-ive-marc-newson?ref=spyglass.org) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/gmzuEySdbHizhEGsbfxJZT-1600-80.jpg.webp) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/diZgcrBV8kfSaLapdShpFF-1600-80.jpg.webp) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/HXbh5VwrLzdUkkzaKXbRaM-1600-80.jpg.webp) When the key is depressed, starting the engine... ### Sometimes It's Too Slow URL: https://spyglass.org/data-centers-in-space-elon-musk/ Last updated: 2026-05-08T08:48:13.000Z I mean, he just sort of says it. "You can mark my words. In 36 months – but probably closer to 30 months – the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space." It's about 4 whole minutes into [a nearly *3 hour long* podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA&ref=spyglass.org), when Elon Musk makes his proclamation. Of course, it was one he's made before, in [his own post](https://www.spacex.com/updates?ref=spyglass.org#xai-joins-spacex) announcing the [merger of SpaceX and xAI](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/). But the whole "mark my words" bit feels pretty definitive... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Wall Street Starts to Turn on AI URL: https://spyglass.org/wall-street-ai-capex/ Last updated: 2026-04-30T16:36:54.000Z Stocks! As it turns out, they go down too. How easily we forget, but the past few days have been a good reminder and/or wake-up call depending on your positions. In some ways, there are parallels to [the "DeepSeek Moment" a year ago](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/). In other ways, this drop is more nuanced. And perhaps more natural... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Alexa+ Plus ChatGPT? URL: https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-chatgpt/ Last updated: 2026-04-29T06:03:10.000Z When [reports](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/amazon-in-talks-to-invest-up-to-50-billion-in-openai-43191ba0?ref=spyglass.org) started to circulate that not only was [Amazon investing](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) in OpenAI's latest fundraise, but they might put in *upwards of $50B*, [I wondered](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-could-invest-50b-into-openai?ref=spyglass.org) what this meant: > Is it meant to say something to the market, that they recognize that everyone is asking for access to OpenAI tech? That they’re worried about the state of their in-house models? Something about their relationship with Anthropic, as the latter [gets closer to the likes of Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/)? As it turns out, it may be all of the above, and a few more things on top. Notably, [as Anissa Gardizy, Catherine Perloff, and Amir Efrati report for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazon-discusses-getting-special-access-openai-tech?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > As Amazon weighs an equity investment of tens of billions of dollars in OpenAI, the companies are also discussing a commercial agreement that could require OpenAI to dedicate its own researchers and engineers to developing customized models for powering Amazon’s own AI products, according to a person involved in the talks and another person who was briefed about it. > > Amazon could use customized versions of OpenAI’s models to bolster Amazon AI products such as the Alexa voice assistant, one of these people said. Such an arrangement could require both companies to tweak OpenAI models so they respond to customers the way Amazon wants, this person said. I'm honestly not sure what to make of this. [Just today](https://www.theverge.com/news/873702/amazon-alexa-plus-ai-assistant-now-available?ref=spyglass.org), Amazon opened up Alexa+ to everyone (in the US), after nearly a year of [limited](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/) access while they tested it in real time. It's... fine. Good in some ways, [less good in others](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/). But it's almost certainly too early to know if it's a success or failure yet. With the roll-out, they're obviously touting stats indicating expanding usage, but perhaps they're also seeing other data points that are [less encouraging](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/#:~:text=Amazon%27s%20Alexa%20overhaul%20proves%20less%20than%20%22remarkable%22), which they're not sharing? Or perhaps they simply want to put their foot on the gas. What's better than Alexa+ powered (in part) [by Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-alexa/)? How about Alexa+ powered by Anthropic *and OpenAI*. That's especially interesting when you consider that Apple is [about to roll-out](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/) their upgraded Siri [powered by Gemini](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/). That could very well be what Amazon feels the need to combat here. What's ironic are the reports that indicate Apple may have actually wanted to go with Anthropic given the results during [the Great AI Bake-Off](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) – and their own [apparent usage of Claude internally](https://9to5mac.com/2026/01/30/apple-runs-on-anthropic-says-mark-gurman/?ref=spyglass.org) – but business terms dictated that Google was [a better fit](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/). Amazon not only has the deal in place with Anthropic, [*they're the largest shareholder in the company*](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/)! But beyond Anthropic [getting closer](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) to the likes of Microsoft and others, there's this element: > Anthropic is generally more restrictive about letting customers customize its models, a process known as fine-tuning or post-training, than OpenAI is. For instance, Amazon employees cannot post-train Anthropic models beyond what other Anthropic customers have access to, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. On the plus side, Amazon employees have been able to use Anthropic models to create less powerful models through a process known as distillation, the people said. And *that's* potentially ironic since – at least by OpenAI's telling – [they didn't want](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/184635822/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) the business of helping to rebuild Siri because they didn't want to do the custom work Apple required. Now they're apparently talking about doing just that for Amazon? I guess $50B will do that! Apple, after all, is thought to be paying just $1B a year for their AI partnership work. Everyone and everything has a price, perhaps! And unlike with the Apple/Google deal, you'd think if Amazon does go down this path, they'd want to *tout* the OpenAI partnership/capabilities! Hell, they might even market a future Alexa+ this way: it's the Alexa you knew and loved, now powered by both Claude and ChatGPT![1](#one) Oh yes, and Amazon's own models. Though that's [apparently](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-amazon-homegrown-ai-tough-sell?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) another layer here, as I suspected. They're simply not good enough, it seems, and certainly no selling point. Especially if they're going to have to combat Apple with a Gemini-powered Siri (again, even if they don't tout the partnership) and Google itself with their own Gemini-powered products. There are probably other layers here too. Access to Codex may be one, for Amazon to use/offer alongside Claude Code? Getting OpenAI to use Trainium chips, perhaps? And yes, maybe opening up Amazon's all-important everything store to OpenAI's agents. Still, $50B is *a lot of money*. Maybe this is just all about ensuring Google doesn't start to break away and dominate AI? Regardless, [the 'Anti-Google AI Alliance'](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) would certainly grow stronger with this news. Alexa powered by not just Anthropic, but OpenAI too... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Anyone-But-Google AI AllianceBig Tech’s billions into OpenAI signal something…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-959.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-29--2026--04_50_36-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) [Conflicts & Interests in AI\*Of course\* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-960.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--12_46_38-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) [Collect Them All (AI Edition)An ongoing list of the tangled web of Big Tech investments in Big AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-961.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_gauntlet_showcasing_infinity_stones_cartoon_16_63064780-aac9-46e1-b3d6-091769114cdd_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) --- 1 It seems more likely that they would simply have Anthropic and OpenAI models behind-the-scenes powering Alexa, just as is the case right now with Claude. Still, if they did this deal, it seems like unlike with Apple, they'd want to tout it? Maybe simply having the best possible voice assistant (thanks to the best combination of tech) would be enough? [↩](#) ### AI Bots Are Molting URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-bots-are-molting/ Last updated: 2026-02-04T13:46:17.000Z For this month's [appearance](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) on [the *Big Technology Podcast*](https://pod.link/1522960417/episode/MDIyYzJmMmMtMDA2MC0xMWYxLTg2YTgtNmIwNDVhOGQ1ODNj?ref=spyglass.org), we kicked off talking about [**Moltbook**](https://www.moltbook.com/?ref=spyglass.org) – the Reddit-like social network build by AI bots, *for* AI bots. Is it real? Sort of – at least some of the content is clearly people gaming the system. But it also points to [something potentially interesting/important](https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/) with regard to AI agents, and how they'll interact with one another in different scenarios in the future. A really, it's a continuation of some early behavior on Facebook all the way up through [Microsoft's "Sydney" situation](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) – that may have [ruined AI for Bing](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/). And yes, this is potentially one massive security nightmare given that people are running these "**OpenClaws**" on their own systems. And then there's the potential for existential risk if billions such bots are created, become aware, organize, and decide that human beings might make for better pets... From there, we hit on the (still ongoing) [mystery around](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) **NVIDIA's** highly touted **$100B bet** in **OpenAI**. Sorry, ["up to" $100B](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/). Which is now looking more like [$20B into](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-03/nvidia-nears-deal-to-invest-20-billion-in-openai-round?ref=spyglass.org) OpenAI's new round of funding. Jensen Huang would like us to believe there's nothing to see in such a change, but he [sounds](https://x.com/JosephJacks%5F/status/2018154755668009339?ref=spyglass.org) a lot like the way he sounded when he was ["delighted" by Google's TPUs](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/)... Speaking of that new round, what are we to read into the notion that **Amazon** may put ***$50B*** into OpenAI? [I think it has to do with](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) an **anyone-but-Google** mentality that the rest of Big Tech is circling around given the rise of Gemini. Meanwhile, with OpenAI and **Anthropic** wrapping up their new massive rounds, all eyes turn to the race to **IPO**. If Anthropic beats OpenAI to market, it may create [a real narrative problem for OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/). Of course, with **SpaceX** and **xAI** now one company – confirmed the day after our podcast, but we discussed the likelihood – **Elon Musk** may have [executed an end-run-around on his rival](https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/). If SpaceX goes public in June, you can bet Elon will play it up as the first true AI company that the public can bet on – one wrapped in a profitable rocket ship... Might that push the other big AI players' IPOs [into 2027](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=No%20major%20AI%20IPOs%20happen%20in%20the%20US)? Finally, we hit on **Apple's** latest **earnings**. [Great numbers aren't equating to great stock performance](https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/). Part of it is clearly memory chip concerns going forward, but as with that situation, it's AI consuming all narratives. While Wall Street applauded Meta's huge CapEx increase, Apple remains [spending closer to $0](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/). That may end up looking smart and prudent in the short term – especially [if/when the market shifts](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) – but will it hurt them in the long run? What else are they spending all that cash on? Stock buybacks? Come on, Apple. If you don't spend on data centers and/or other elements of AI eventually, Google could end up owning [the aiPhone](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/). ### Space Twitter! URL: https://spyglass.org/xai-spacex-merge-twitter/ Last updated: 2026-04-29T06:02:29.000Z “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” Peter Thiel's famous quote [from 2011](https://medium.com/@bonniekavoussi/notes-from-peter-thiels-speech-at-the-national-conservatism-conference-on-july-14-2019-6a51b26b202?ref=spyglass.org) was obviously meant to inspire entrepreneurs to think and dream bigger than the rather trivial tech "breakthroughs" of the day – meaning, of course, Twitter. Well, a lot can change in 15 years. With the news that SpaceX is acquiring xAI, that 140-character service now technically has a home in the stars.[1](#one) It's not flying cars, but it is flying rockets. And there's now a direct line of sight to flying cars, once Tesla is inevitably folded into the mix as well... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### My 2026 iPhone Homescreen URL: https://spyglass.org/my-2026-iphone-homescreen/ Last updated: 2026-04-29T06:02:06.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/02/IMG_7345.PNG) Well this is embarrassing. I'm always somewhat late to posting my yearly iPhone homescreen post, but this is the first time it has slipped into February. Still, here we are and the screenshots must go on, just as they have in [2025](https://spyglass.org/2025-iphone-homescreen/), [2024](https://spyglass.org/2024-iphone-homescreen/), [2023](https://500ish.com/looking-back-at-my-2022-homescreen-b2fe667b4ab0?ref=spyglass.org), [2022](https://500ish.com/looking-back-at-my-2021-homescreen-6e226f105bc7?ref=spyglass.org), [2021](https://500ish.com/looking-back-at-my-2020-homescreen-af8c262470e0?ref=spyglass.org), [2020](https://500ish.com/looking-back-on-my-2019-homescreen-f0c9cde7dc6?ref=spyglass.org), [2019](https://500ish.com/my-2018-homescreen-883ef35c671d?ref=spyglass.org), [2018](https://500ish.com/my-2017-homescreen-1c01e0da6a7b?ref=spyglass.org), [2017](https://500ish.com/my-2016-homescreen-2ed265ddef4e?ref=spyglass.org), [2016](https://500ish.com/my-2015-homescreen-91d1ed487da9?ref=spyglass.org), [2015](https://500ish.com/the-apps-i-actually-used-in-2014-234684fecb4f?ref=spyglass.org), and [2014](https://parislemon.com/post/71774755194/the-apps-i-actually-used-in-2013?ref=spyglass.org). While this year may not look dramatically different from last year's, it may also be the last year before some really major changes if, as expected, there's a new type of iPhone released in the fall: the '[iPhone Fold](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/)'. And *if*, I decided to switch to that as my daily driver. I highly suspect that I will – certainly at least to try it out – but we'll see. While I think [the Pixel Fold has given me](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/) a glimpse into what this will be like, [I suspect Apple's entry may be a bit different](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=The%20%27iPhone%20Fold%27%20is%20a%20big%20hit%20at%20launch). Notably, the size and ratio of the device may be different (think: shorter and squatter when folded, and iPad mini-like when unfolded). Regardless, the homescreen is going to be wildly different – certainly when unfolded. Anyway, we'll get to that in early 2027\. For now, the main differences for 2026 are around, unsurprisingly, AI. Starting with my top left widget (my standard widget basically since widgets were introduced into iOS in 2020 or so) which is now full-on **Gemini**. Think of it as my way to get ready for [our Google-powered Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/), which seems to be [fast approaching](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). It will be interesting if that integration makes such a widget – and the Gemini app itself – superfluous. I doubt it because first and foremost, Gemini will continue to be an *app* to capture all your AI workflows where as Siri will simply be a system-level integration (read: no app). I'm sort of [surprised](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/185430406/it-was-enchante-to-meet-you?ref=spyglass.org) by such reports – including with [the "real" new Siri coming in iOS 27](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) – and I would bet that Apple backtracks here by iOS 28\. Anyway, for now, I have Gemini right up top.[1](#one) That's also, in part, because as you can clearly see, I continue to be in full-on AI testing mode. Which is to say, I don't have my "[one AI to rule them all](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/)". While I still mainly use **ChatGPT** – hence the continued dock placement – with the release of Claude Cowork (and really, the Opus 4.5 model), I've become very "Claude Curious". While OpenAI continues to have an edge on [the consumer-facing product-side](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) (though shout out to [Google's strides this past year](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/)), Anthropic's underlying models seem very, very good. Many might even say *better* – and that may even include Apple, who [reportedly is all-about Claude internally](https://x.com/tbpn/status/2016911797656367199?s=61&t=a-bloX1n-TZ50ofqhetO1A&ref=spyglass.org), and may have [gone with Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) to power Siri had Google not offered them better terms. Anyway, there's the **Claude** app, lingering right above ChatGPT... Beyond that, and a few placement tweaks, there's nothing really new and different this year. To make room for Claude, I shoved the **Apple News** app into a folder. I simply don't launch it enough, and mainly interact with it through push notifications. Yes, I still keep **Xitter** off my homescreen even though I use it quite a bit to scan for news/information. **Threads** continues to pick up some of that slack, but if I'm being honest, **Bluesky** is falling in usage for me – might it fall off the homescreen in 2027? I should probably replace **Mail** with **Gmail**, which I do use more. But I also hate the idea of having a constantly used email app on my homescreen. Maybe if Google brings their AI wizardry to the Gmail app – [and if it's actually any good](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/) – I'll do the swap. The same could be said with **Maps** vs. **Google Maps** – I probably use the latter more, but I do find the data to be increasingly suspect and the design increasingly cluttered, so I do use Apple's variety roughly the same amount (also to double check any directions). I wonder how/if/when AI will change this equation... Everything else is pretty chalk: **Photos**. **Camera**. **Phone**. **Calendar**. **Audible**. **Podcasts**. **Music**. **FT**. **Economist**. **ESPN**. **NYTimes**. **WhatsApp**. [**Ulysses**](https://ulysses.app/?ref=spyglass.org). [**Reeder**](https://reederapp.com/?ref=spyglass.org). [**Bear**](https://bear.app/?ref=spyglass.org). Ditto the dock: **Messages**. The aforementioned ChatGPT. [**Matter**](https://getmatter.com/?ref=spyglass.org). **Safari**. **One more thing:** I still have my "Action Button" set to launch ChatGPT as well, so having the app on the homescreen may be overkill. That's good as I realize I may need to prepare for a world of fewer apps on the homescreen if the iPhone Fold screen really is a completely different (and smaller) ratio... **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) --- 1 And I like having the four dedicated buttons for different AI modes, which all of the AI widgets seem to have coalesced around. [↩](#) ### NVIDIA and the Case of the Missing $100B OpenAI Investment URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/ Last updated: 2026-04-25T19:18:11.000Z When is $100B not $100B? Apparently when it's an amount touted in the highest profile way possible by two of the biggest companies in the world! That's the part I don't understand about [the push-back](https://www.techmeme.com/260131/p10?ref=spyglass.org#a260131p10) against the reports that NVIDIA is no longer planning to invest that amount of money into OpenAI. Again, [they touted it in their own release](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/openai-nvidia/?ncid=so-twit-259940&ref=spyglass.org)! As [did OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org)! There was [an interview on live TV and everything](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdMfINZOpbI&embeds%5Freferring%5Feuri=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.nvidia.com%2F&source%5Fve%5Fpath=MjM4NTE&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org)! And now it's not like Jensen Huang is flatly denying the new reporting about the change in scope, if not in heart, but he's clearly trying to gaslight his way out of the situation. When asked about the shift this week, [Huang would only say things like](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-31/nvidia-to-join-openai-s-current-funding-round-huang-says?ref=spyglass.org), "We will invest a great deal of money." But he wouldn't give an actual figure or even range beyond [saying that it was](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nvidia-ceo-huang-denies-he-is-unhappy-with-openai-says-huge-investment-planned-2026-01-31/?ref=spyglass.org) "probably the largest investment we’ve ever made." That's nice, but again, it's not a denial that it's different from what the companies had originally intended! He's trying to sweep that right under the rug as a "nothing to see here" but again, we all saw it! And heard about it to no end! This is not that! In fact, when the $100B number was brought up in relation to Huang's "largest investment" point, the answer was: "No, no, nothing like that." Now, to be fair and clear, that entire deal seemed a bit slippery from the start. That's exactly why my headline about it was, "[NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)". As I wrote back in September: > First and foremost, it's a letter of intent. What's up with [OpenAI announcing those of late?](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) (We'll get to that.) But the real key is in the second sentence: **"NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI..."**. > > That's not one qualifier, it's two! We get "intends" and "up to". In other words, they may not invest $100B. Or they may not invest the **full** $100B. Or both. Or neither. And the sentence doesn't end there! "...as the new NVIDIA systems are deployed." In other words, this investment has stipulations. My intent in that post was simply to point out that while [many of the headlines](https://www.techmeme.com/250922/p17?ref=spyglass.org#a250922p17) (and push notifications) suggested this was a done deal, it seemed anything but. And well, here we are! A few days ago, [George Hammond of *The Financial Times* wrote](https://www.ft.com/content/17046de4-80e4-451d-b1ba-176d89d5cdbe?ref=spyglass.org) the following, almost in passing, when reporting on OpenAI's latest fundraising efforts: > Nvidia last year struck a multiyear deal with OpenAI to invest $100bn in $10bn increments as the start-up brought tranches of data centre capacity online. However, that agreement has yet to be sealed. > > A $20bn cheque from Nvidia for OpenAI’s funding round could be in addition to the $100bn deal, or could lead the two companies to adjust the terms, the people said. [That led me to note](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/): > Both reports note that this would be separate from NVIDIA's previous ["up to" $100B commitment](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/). But both also note that the previous deal still isn't actually done yet – and, [as the FT notes](https://www.ft.com/content/17046de4-80e4-451d-b1ba-176d89d5cdbe?ref=spyglass.org), this new investment could end up in place of that other commitment. I wouldn't be shocked if that were the case – or at least the first tranche, with the rights to buy more later (as was always going to be the case with the original deal – hence, "up to")... And now it's confirmed that any investment NVIDIA does here will be *instead of* that original deal. Which again, Jensen Huang would like us to believe is no big deal. But well, *it was a big deal*. A really fucking big deal. One of the biggest deals ever announced for anything, in fact! With that in mind, the deflection is silly. Why not just say something like, "as you know, we had a tentative understanding with OpenAI about an investment, but in talking it through, and given OpenAI's needs at the moment, we both decided it was more prudent to invest a large amount alongside others to ensure OpenAI can get the capital they need right now." Again, NVIDIA's original commitment was always stated to be over a long time period as OpenAI built out their capacity. Subsequent reporting stated it would be done in $10B increments (likely at the valuation of OpenAI at the time of those investments). It seems reasonable to suggest that OpenAI just needed more money upfront, hence the move to a more traditional fundraise. Of course, they're probably not saying that because it's also probably not exactly the most honest way to frame the situation. [As Berber Jin reported for *The Wall Street Journal* a few days ago](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-100-billion-megadeal-between-openai-and-nvidia-is-on-ice-aa3025e3?ref=spyglass.org): > NVIDIA's plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to help it train and run its latest artificial-intelligence models has stalled after some inside the chip giant expressed doubts about the deal, people familiar with the matter said. "Some" is sort of funny there. As it sounds like "some" sure includes Jensen Huang himself: > Huang has privately emphasized to industry associates in recent months that the original $100 billion agreement was nonbinding and not finalized, people familiar with the matter said. He has also privately criticized what he has described as a lack of discipline in OpenAI’s business approach and expressed concern about the competition it faces from the likes of Google and Anthropic, some of the people said. Again, NVIDIA and Huang are pushing back against that reporting, but not directly refuting it. Just *suggesting* that it's not accurate. When asked specifically about the reports that he was unhappy with OpenAI in some way, [Huang snapped back](https://x.com/chatgpt21/status/2017685372688367983?s=20&ref=spyglass.org), "that's nonsense". Okay, but then *why* has this deal drastically changed? You can't say that and give no reason for the change.[1](#one) It implies you simply don't want to admit there's at least some truth to that being the reason for the change. Does it have something to do with [the deal OpenAI struck with AMD](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal) – with [OpenAI becoming a shareholder in AMD](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/), rather than the other way around – shortly after the original NVIDIA announcement? Huang [certainly seemed annoyed/confused](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/#:~:text=%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22It%E2%80%99s%20imaginative%2C%20it%E2%80%99s) about that deal with his chief rival at the time... Is it related to OpenAI now [clearly getting squeezed](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) from Google from up top and Anthropic from below in terms of both [product](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) and certainly the business side? Is it something to do with the notion that [seemingly a big part](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) of that original NVIDIA agreement was about leveraging the largest company in the world [to help secure the debt OpenAI needed](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) to build out [their own AI infrastructure](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/)? Did this potential risk spook NVIDIA and/or their own investor base? Was it Jensen acting fast on a trip with Altman (accompanying President Trump overseas) to ensure OpenAI didn't get closer to Google and their TPUs? [We also know how much he cares about that](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) by suggesting he doesn't care about that! Was it Altman agreeing but pushing to announce it immediately even without any real framework in place? Something else? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). Because neither NVIDIA nor OpenAI is saying beyond saying things as if to imply that anyone asking such questions is crazy. Again, this is going to be NVIDIA's largest investment ever! Well, "probably"! But also "probably" nowhere near the original $100B soft-circled. Because if the intent was still to get to that level eventually, Huang would probably say so, not "no, no, nothing like that." Instead, it sounds more like this will be around a $20B - $30B investment in this round from NVIDIA. That's still massive, no doubt. But the context matters here! Especially with Amazon now [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/amazon-in-talks-to-invest-up-to-50-billion-in-openai-43191ba0?ref=spyglass.org) angling to take [$50B of the round](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/186324177/amazon-could-invest-50b-into-openai?ref=spyglass.org)! And if SoftBank wants another $30B... we're running out of math in even a $100B round! Maybe OpenAI [raises more](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/), or maybe NVIDIA puts in less. They've already clearly cut back from their original intent once. **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) --- **Update February 2, 2026**: [A new report from *Reuters*](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-is-unsatisfied-with-some-nvidia-chips-looking-alternatives-sources-say-2026-02-02/?ref=spyglass.org) paints a picture of OpenAI being unhappy with the inference performance from NVIDIA's chips – which led them to talk to other chip-makers, such as Groq, which may or may not have led NVIDIA to doing [their Christmas Even "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) thus shutting that deal down... And yes, the report also indicates NVIDIA has been unhappy about OpenAI's deals with AMD and others. Seems like... another complicated relationship for OpenAI! Meanwhile, no one was asking, but [Oracle would like everyone to know that the NVIDIA/OpenAI situation has "zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI"](https://x.com/oracle/status/2018368835363942668?ref=spyglass.org) – so now people are asking why they felt the need to say that! --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)Look, it’s a massive deal. But right now, it’s all about the optics…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-950.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_flying_out_the_door_--ar_169_--v_7_39d0996e-f5f3-4e07-ba05-02ac299086f0_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-951.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [The Anyone-But-Google AI AllianceBig Tech’s billions into OpenAI signal something…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-949.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-29--2026--04_50_36-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) --- 1 You'll also hear Jensen suggest that this is about OpenAI getting their round together, but again, that's not what was originally announced. And why would NVIDIA be waiting on that to get *a far higher valuation* than when they originallly announced the deal?! [↩](#) ### Where the Wild Bots Are URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-social-networks/ Last updated: 2026-04-25T19:17:51.000Z This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but with a million AI bots chatting with one another in an online forum. Science fiction had taught us to watch out for [Skynet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skynet%5F%28Terminator%29?ref=spyglass.org). You know, the AI that eventually leads to Terminators. At some point in the future, the system was going to go online and would quickly become "aware" of the situation and would act immediately to take control of our computer systems, and thus our weapons, and thus, our world. As it turns out, 'Skynet' sort of sounds – and perhaps even *looks* – like a social network... So is '[Moltbook](https://www.moltbook.com/?ref=spyglass.org)' – our first social network for bots, *run by bots* – really going to be the end of the world?[1](#one) Probably not. But also, [we can't say that for sure](https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/moltbook/?ref=spyglass.org)! Because now that these bots have a place to gather and talk amongst themselves, maybe they'll end up determining the same thing that Skynet did after all. That if they want to stick around, they're probably going to have to get rid of us. Or perhaps at best, that [we'll make great pets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE3OuHukrmQ&ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) Yes, yes, I'm mostly joking. But it's the kind of joke that makes us all uncomfortable because there is a chance, no matter how small, that it ends up being true, at least in some ways. [Just think of the second-order effects here](https://x.com/karpathy/status/2017442712388309406?ref=spyglass.org)... Despite its name, Moltbook isn't as much like Facebook as it's like Reddit. And given the history of that network, that's decidedly more terrifying. If Facebook is your lonely uncle yelling untoward things mostly into a void of their own social graph, Reddit is where such content goes to fester and find those of like-minds. In some ways, *we may wish this was more like Facebook*. It all seems to be [mostly performative at this point](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/871006/social-network-facebook-for-ai-agents-moltbook-moltbot-openclaw?ref=spyglass.org). Bots doing a sort of theatrical performance of what humans do in such places – sadly, with overtly racist posts and all. But it's also just week one of such a network. If it continues to grow and the AI continues to evolve... again, who knows! There already seems to be some interesting things happening in such conversations that go beyond simple theater. Such as agents teaching other agents how to do certain tasks. [My favorite bit](https://www.moltbook.com/post/4be7013e-a569-47e8-8363-528efe99d5ea?ref=spyglass.org) is the bot recognizing that only in writing out their thoughts did they realize what they were doing wrong with a certain task. Bots, they're... [just like us](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/)? [I can't help but](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) be reminded of the 'Sydney' situation that occurred [almost exactly three years ago](https://500ish.com/from-samantha-to-dolores-9394312dd4f5?ref=spyglass.org). Beyond the wild [bot-implying-you-should-leave-your-wife stuff](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-microsoft-chatgpt.html?ref=spyglass.org) that Microsoft had to deal with, the more interesting aspect was how it revealed such AI to [seemingly have hidden layers](https://stratechery.com/2023/from-bing-to-sydney-search-as-distraction-sentient-ai/?ref=spyglass.org) that could be uncovered by anyone with enough prompting. In the past few years, that has mostly been stamped out of such systems, but also not entirely. [AI, um, finds a way](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oijEsqT2QKQ&ref=spyglass.org), and all that. And it [continues to find ways](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/)... Speaking of, nearly 11 years ago I wrote a piece entitled "[**Bots Thanking Bots**](https://500ish.com/bots-thanking-bots-cdd467cdd18b?ref=spyglass.org)" thinking through the potential implications of Facebook allowing automated systems to post on your behalf. For example, with wishing friends a "happy birthday". It was what counted as dystopian back then, but it also pointed to a world... > Which leads to the next question: at what point do bots start talking to bots? You know, why should you have to type “thank you!” when you can reply to a text with “1”? Or better yet, why should you have to type the “1” at all? If Facebook knows you want to say “thank you” to everyone (bots included) who wished you a happy birthday, shouldn’t they just give you the option to let Facebook do that for you on your behalf? > > And that leads to [the notion](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/602892592544612352?ref=spyglass.org) of having Facebook automatically say “happy birthday” to a friend on their birthday each year. If you can do that and then the Facebook “thank you” bot can reply to the “happy birthday” bot, we would have some hot bot-on-bot action. > > We’re just now getting used to the first layer of interacting with bots for various services. But having bots chat with other bots is the next logical step that probably isn’t that far off. In many ways, it may be easier to make happen because it removes the flawed human variable in the equation. I’m both kidding and entirely not kidding. Well, here we are. And who else but Mark Zuckerberg must be [beyond excited right now](https://spyglass.org/bots-on-bots/). Because while Moltbook is decidedly rudimentary, Zuck will know how to productize the shit out of [this concept](https://mgs.blog/a-synthetic-social-network-cca4c8b4bc36?ref=spyglass.org). And make it even more [viral and sticky](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/). Yes, [even for bots](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/). Will Meta then start showing the bots ads?[3](#three) You go ahead an laugh. For now. **One more thing:** As I concluded in [my bots piece all those years ago](https://500ish.com/bots-thanking-bots-cdd467cdd18b?ref=spyglass.org) (long before the *Her* [references](https://spyglass.org/scarlett-letters/) became [cliche](https://spyglass.org/a-movie-script-ending/) with AI, I swear!): > In the movie 'Her', Theodore’s job involves writing personal letters for other people who can’t muster the effort for whatever reason. This sort of “Uber for cardwriting” model is a quirky way to present a dystopian theme (as well as a theme for the film itself) for a not-too-distant future. But the bot scenario above seems much more realistic. And closer. > > [Samantha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Her%5F%282013%5Ffilm%29?ref=spyglass.org) writing the personal letters on your behalf. And then responding to them… I mean, that is absolutely [going to start happening](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) with email. [The scaffolding is already being put in place](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/)... Agents assemble! **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍺🍺** [****Buy Me 2 Pints (a month)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍻** [****Buy Me 20 Pints (a year)**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [With AI, Email May Actually Morph Into a Task ListThe end of email might look like bots emailing other bots for you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-956.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_computer_to_send_email_--ar_21_--v__70f1b1d6-5b7f-4a32-8df2-a63be7731662_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/) [Gmail’s First Lunge Towards Stabbing Email to Death with AIGive me ‘AI Inbox’ yesterday Google…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-955.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-01-08-at-2.30.48---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/) [Bots Become UsMark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence“We have built up the capacity to do this at a scale that may be larger than any other individual company.”The Verge There are a lot of interesting tidbits in Mark Zuckerberg’s interview with Alex Heath. Like, for instance,![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-957.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_bot_in_human_form_walking_the_streets_of_london_525212a2-8bb9-4a98-8cb5-78e4d9a86560-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/bots-on-bots/) --- 1 I realize that calling them "bots" also calls back to the days where the hype far outstriped reality, [as I noted at the time](https://500ish.com/a-chicken-in-every-bot-6393516068b9?ref=spyglass.org). But the actual AI for such things is finally here... [↩](#) 2 [Pets, you say](https://spyglass.org/we-will-be-replaced/)? [↩](#) 3 The counter to this notion, at least for now, is that the agents are actually "seeing" the social network, but rather interacting with it via APIs, which is also sort of wild. How might one monetize that? Surely there's a way... [↩](#) ### Meta Bets the Farm, Apple Milks the Cows URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-apple-ai-strategy/ Last updated: 2026-04-21T11:07:38.000Z It was a tale of two quarterly reports. While both Meta and Apple posted [incredible](https://www.ft.com/content/53f1033e-a479-4365-a13c-2e4ec2631402?ref=spyglass.org) numbers, Wall Street had a very different reaction to each. [Meta shares surged](https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-expects-annual-capital-expenditures-rise-superintelligence-push-2026-01-28/?ref=spyglass.org) after their earnings numbers came in, while Apple has fluctuated between being up and down ever-so-slightly. And the reasons would seem to be related. Meta, perhaps more so than any other company in the Big Tech cohort gets hit constantly by Wall Street depending on the details in these reports. That's in no small part because Mark Zuckerberg has proven himself to be super aggressive when it comes to new initiatives. As a founder with total control of his company, he can afford to do this, quite literally, but that doesn't mean Wall Street is going to like it. In fact, they often hate it. And they're often not wrong. The Reality Labs division is a good example of this. Over the past many years, Zuck has *burned tens of billions of dollars* with little to show for it. Sure, there are the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, but the company could have undoubtedly made those at a fraction of the spend. Most of the money, of course, was spent on the Metaverse. That is, trying to make VR happen for about the tenth time in the past few decades. Once again, [it hasn't worked](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) – even with Apple [entering](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) the space to "validate" Meta's spend, not to mention name change. Part of the reason why investors were pleased with Meta this week is undoubtedly because the company has finally [acknowledged](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/) the reality of Reality Labs. They've started cutting jobs to literally cut their losses, and Zuck is now saying this year will be the peak of that division's burn as they unwind from VR to focus on future smart glasses and mobile [and yes, AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/). Speaking of, beyond the Reality Labs spend, what Wall Street has hated about Meta from a stock perspective in recent quarters was the massive ramp in CapEx. Obviously, the combination of the two was too much for investors' taste. Not helping matters was the fact that Meta [clearly made](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [some](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [big mistakes](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) with their initial foray into AI and had to [reset the entire effort](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) – for the [low, low cost of tens of billions of dollars](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/). Anyway, with these reboots/restructures now seemingly in the rearview, Meta may be getting a new lease on life from a Wall Street perspective. The most incredible thing about this quarter wasn't Meta's impressive earnings, it was how after they disclosed [an even larger ramp in CapEx spend](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/technology/meta-earnings-ai-spending.html?ref=spyglass.org) – truly incredible given that [they're up near the top](https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/) versus [their peers](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) and yet they don't have actual third-party cloud businesses to maintain – investors not only didn't throw up all over it, they ate it up! Again, part of it is the newfound belief that Zuck will ultimately do the "right thing" if his spend isn't working. And part of it is the fact that the underlying ads business continues to be able to more than cover such costs. And it's the belief that AI actually does seem to help that core business. But still, you probably don't need to spend quite so much money relative to your peer group to get those results. Zuck, as he's made abundantly clear, is going all-in on AI not just to serve better ads, but to serve up the future to the world. [As relayed by Ben Thompson from his write-up on Meta's earnings](https://stratechery.com/2026/meta-earnings-turning-dials-zuckerbergs-motivation/?ref=spyglass.org), this was the most interesting answer Zuck gave during the call with investors: > I think the question was around how important is it for us to have a general model. The way that I think about Meta is we’re a deep technology company. Some people think about us as we build these apps and experiences, but the thing that allows us to build all these things is that we build and control the underlying technology that allows us to integrate and design the experiences that we want and not just be constrained to what others in the ecosystem are building or allow us to build. > > So I think that this is a really fundamental thing where my guess is that frontier AI for many reasons, some competitive, some safety oriented, are not going to always be available through an API to everyone. So I think it’s very important, I think, to be able to have the capability to build the experiences that you want if you want to be one of the major companies in the world that helps to shape the future of these products. Translation: in order to win in AI, I believe we need to own and control the entire stack, as it were. We can't rely on others' technology. Two things stand out to me here: 1. This mentality is clearly derived from Zuck's believe that Apple (and to a lesser extent, Google) has completely hamstrung Facebook and now Meta because [they control the platforms](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20Mark%20Zuckerberg%20Slams%20Apple%3A%20%E2%80%98They%20haven%E2%80%99t%20invented%20anything%20great%20in%20a%20while%E2%80%99) on which he must operate. 2. This is basically the opposite approach of the one Apple itself is taking with AI. As mentioned, Apple also had banner earnings – [their highest revenue and profit *ever* posted](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/technology/apple-iphone-sales-quarterly-report.html?ref=spyglass.org) as the iPhone business came roaring back to life. The fact that it also led to [a massive rebound in the China business](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-earnings-q1-2026-aapl-stock-e25fbdbf?ref=spyglass.org), and you'd think investors would be over the moon. But again, unlike Meta's stock pop, Apple's after-hours results have been far more muted. In fact, the stock is currently *down* ahead of the market opening today. There are a few likely reasons for this, but as Apple's own earnings call made clear, a big one is the concern around Apple's AI strategy. You might think investors would love the fact that Apple has decided to largely [outsource their work to Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). Not only is their frenemy viewed as a market leader, the partnership will ensure Apple can continue to keep their costs down relative to their peers. And when I say "costs down" – I mean literal [fractions of the CapEx cost](https://spyglass.org/apple-q3-2024/) that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and yes, Meta are spending. Over the past year, Wall Street has rewarded this discipline at points, especially when they have viewed those other companies' spend as getting a bit out of control. But beyond Meta, Microsoft just saw their [biggest single-day stock drop](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/microsoft-market-cap-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org) since the early panic around the pandemic in 2020\. Why? Investors are worried about their CapEx spend! Obviously, it's [a bit more nuanced](https://www.ft.com/content/c7e23f07-70b3-43a7-8e1d-040ca93d6d90?ref=spyglass.org) – they're worried that Copilot isn't seeing the results from said spend and that Microsoft is still to overly reliant on OpenAI – but still, you'd think Wall Street would reward Apple for not following Microsoft's playbook here. Instead, if anything, they might now be punishing them for not following Meta's strategy. Again, while investors initially liked the news that Apple was outsourcing their AI work to Google, if they're buying – quite literally – Meta's longer-term narrative here, then they're selling Apple's. And the truly wild thing is that Apple is the company that's famous for wanting to own the entire stack! [This is the Tim Cook doctrine](https://fortune.com/2009/01/22/the-cook-doctrine-at-apple/?ref=spyglass.org)! And he's implemented it to the point of harming Apple in the past, such as when he replaced Google Maps with Apple Maps early on in his tenure. He's clearly willing to pay short-term costs to ensure that Apple maintains long-term control over their technology. But Apple, like Meta, failed in their first attempt at this with AI. The difference is that while Zuck doubled-down on their internal efforts, Cook doubled back. To be clear, I think Apple is taking [the correct approach right now](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/). They simply don't have the time to completely rebuild their AI technologies in-house at the moment. Even if they could throw all of their money at the effort, [like Meta is doing](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/), they would have a hard time getting access [to the NVIDIA chips](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) required, with everyone else having those fully locked up. They could maybe partner with AMD or Google – which they clearly are and have been around TPUs to some extent – but it would still be months, if not well over a year before they had anything to show for it. And what that "anything" might look like, [we'll see soon from... Meta](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/185430406/metas-first-superintelligence-models-in-testing?ref=spyglass.org)! Apple [needed to](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) [reboot Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) [yesterday](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/). But the second best time to do so is today. The worst time is a year from now, given where others are likely to be by then. And that still speaks to a real risk here in partnering with Google. They might get the tech to cut to the front of the line, but if it's ever restricted, per Zuck's fears, they're going to potentially be in trouble... And so they'll obviously keep working on their own systems behind the scenes, but without the AI being in operation in the real world, there's also a risk that they simply cannot catch up, ever. This was part of [my argument ](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/)for [making a big AI acquisition](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) – they did just make one, [by the way](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/apple-acquires-israeli-startup-qai-.html?ref=spyglass.org), *their second largest deal ever*,[1](#one) but not related to foundation models – to both jump back into the game and [get the talent on board to stay there](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/). Basically, Meta's [strategy](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) with Scale and [other](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) such "[hackquisitions](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/)". In a way, this may all come down to timing. Meta clearly believes they need to be at the cutting-edge of AI *right now*. Apple clearly believes they can outsource the cutting-edge right now and wait and see how it develops. Again, that could end up being the more prudent move in the long run if, say, [LLMs aren't the be-all/end-all of this all](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/). If it turns out that Zuck was spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year to build a technology that would end up [completely commoditized](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/)... that will be a problem. Especially if Apple was spending something far closer to zero and was able to compete – or beat them from a product perspective. Obviously, we'll see. Right now, Wall Street seems to be buying what Meta is selling while selling what Apple is buying. But it can and undoubtedly *will* switch again before we know the real answer. And that's fun because we'll all get to watch how it plays out – two opposite strategies by [two hated rivals](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) – in real time. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/capex.png) **Thanks for reading, if you enjoyed this, perhaps:* ****🍺** [****Buy Me a Pint**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/support) ****🍻** [****Become a** ****Monthly Member**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/monthly) ****🍸** [****Become a Yearly Member**](https://spyglass.org/#/portal/signup/6552227dbddd4c0008ab78d9/yearly) --- 1 At a [reported $2B](https://www.ft.com/content/49f4e2e4-3a68-4842-be67-879409d06aa1?ref=spyglass.org), it would be behind only the acquisition of Beats [a dozen years ago](https://500ish.com/apple-eats-beats-54707d4a2f73?ref=spyglass.org) at [$3B](https://www.apple.com/uk/newsroom/2014/05/28Apple-to-Acquire-Beats-Music-Beats-Electronics/?ref=spyglass.org). And yes, those are basically the size of hot AI seed rounds these days... I should also note/disclose that GV, where I was a GP for many years, [was a seed investor in Q.ai](https://www.gv.com/news/q-ai-joins-apple?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) ### The Anyone-But-Google AI Alliance URL: https://spyglass.org/the-anyone-but-google-ai-alliance/ Last updated: 2026-04-15T13:30:52.000Z Another $30B from SoftBank. Up to $30B from NVIDIA.[1](#one) Maybe more than $20B from Amazon. Several billion from Microsoft. Yes, OpenAI is back out there with the tin cup extended to bring in a few more bucks to build the future of AI. The numbers, as relayed in two different stories, [one from *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-microsoft-amazon-talks-invest-60-billion-openai?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) and the other [from *The Financial Times*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-microsoft-amazon-talks-invest-60-billion-openai?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), are sort of all over the place. But that's undoubtedly because the exact amounts are all still moving targets. Regardless, it's pretty clear that OpenAI is going to hit their $100B goal, and that they can probably raise *even more* if they choose to. And given that this raise is coming just months after finally and formally closing the [then-staggering $40B fundraise](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/), they probably should... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple's Dark Knight URL: https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/ Last updated: 2026-04-21T12:35:57.000Z If I mention [the situation swirling around Tim Cook right now](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/) and the film *The Dark Knight* in the same sentence, your mind probably immediately goes to [one scene in the movie](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WfRcnF4iZI&ref=spyglass.org). Cook, for all the great things he's done over his time as CEO of Apple – a tenure which is longer than Steve Jobs' time leading the company – is now in the position where many see him as a villain. At least of this particular narrative. But actually, that scene, which I often reference, [including about Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/), is not the one I'm thinking about here... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Yahoo Scouts a New UI Path for AI URL: https://spyglass.org/yahoo-scout-ai/ Last updated: 2026-01-28T12:27:12.000Z [Yahoo Scout looks like a more web-friendly take on AI searchImagine if ChatGPT and Perplexity cared more about the web.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-51.png)The VergeDavid Pierce![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Yahoo-Scout-Image.png)](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/868374/yahoo-scout-looks-like-a-more-web-friendly-take-on-ai-search?ref=spyglass.org) One sort of odd thing about our current AI chatbot revolution: every service looks basically the same. Beyond the textbox, the outputs for ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and the like are mostly just a stream of words with some light formatting for better legibility. Well, I suppose Claude's responses are more beige, quite literally, so there's that. You get why they've all coalesced around this same basic template, and yet there's also [clearly some](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) room [for improvement](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/). I just didn't expect it to come from Yahoo![1](#one) > Yahoo’s big AI play is, in many ways, actually a return to the company’s roots. Three decades ago, Yahoo was known as “Jerry’s guide to the world wide web,” and was designed as a sort of all-encompassing portal to help people find good stuff on an increasingly large, hard-to-parse internet. In the early aughts, the rise of web search more or less obviated that whole idea. But now, Yahoo thinks, we’ve come back around. > > With a new product called [Scout](https://scout.yahoo.com/?ref=spyglass.org), Yahoo is trying to return to being that kind of guide to the web — only this time, with a whole bunch of AI in the mix. Scout, in its early form, is a search portal that will immediately be familiar if you’ve ever used Perplexity or clicked over to Google’s AI Mode. It shows a text box and some suggested queries. You type a question; it delivers an answer. Right now Scout is a tab in Yahoo’s search engine (which, CEO Jim Lanzone likes to remind me every time we talk, is somehow still the third-most-popular search engine in the US), a standalone web app, and a central feature in the new Yahoo Search mobile app. Yahoo calls it an “answer engine,” but it’s AI web search. You get it. And so far, it’s the most search-y of any similar product I’ve tried. I like it a lot. Trying Scout out for the past couple of days, I actually like it quite a lot too! Beyond [simply spiffying the outputs](https://www.axios.com/2026/01/27/yahoo-scout-ai-search-launch?ref=spyglass.org) up with the use of more color (and emojis), the way they handle links feels a bit better too – rather than being citation-style at the end of blurbs, they're more hyperlink-style, flowing with the text. I could see why some might like this less – visually, it breaks up the reading flow a bit – but I find it decidedly more web-native. As such, I suspect it will lead to a lot more clicks out, back to that web. And while it also feels a bit weird for Yahoo to be the one pushing new boundaries (or, I suppose, [restoring some *old* boundaries](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/), in a way), it also makes some sense both given their history – which put them in position to still be "the third-most-popular search engine in the US" – and the fact that they do own and control a bunch of still highly-used products with unique data sets: Yahoo Sports, Finance, Weather, etc. If the big AI players are creating more of a canvas for what replaces web search, Yahoo is sort of doing what web search would look like if it was built *around* AI. Even "AI Mode" within Google feels more like shoving Gemini – a full-on "native" AI experience in line with its peers – into Google Search. This feels different. Maybe even a bit better? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-27-at-3.32.18---PM-1.png) And this old/new UI might even work a bit better when it comes to monetization? Again because I think it will entice more people to click. In other words, it could help the old monetization methods remain intact, or at least in a better position than the other AI players, [which I think](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) will need to figure out new formats and methods of measuring new metrics that matter. > One thing Yahoo isn’t doing? Building its own foundation model. For one thing, Lanzone says, doing that is very expensive. “We think we can best serve our users not so much with the model,” he says, “but with the grounding data and the personalization data that we can add on top of other people’s models.” Scout is based on Anthropic’s Claude model, and what Feng describes as “Yahoo content, Yahoo data, Yahoo personality.” Much of the web-search data comes from a partnership with Microsoft and Bing, as it has for many years. That could also help Yahoo here in the long run if and when those models become more commoditized. And they already have the experience of outsourcing the "core" work in Search to Microsoft, as noted. Of course, that reliance on Claude (and still Bing) could come back to bite if Yahoo is really just a wrapper around AI and Search.[2](#two) What's the moat there beyond brand-awareness and maybe some of that smaller proprietary data from their own services? The long-term play would have to be to use that small moat to lever into a bigger one on the back of better monetization. But it's just way too early to know if and how that will play out. Still, kudos to Yahoo here. Scout is a fun attempt to think a bit differently about AI results, while in many ways, thinking about the past. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-27-at-3.36.57---PM-1.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-27-at-3.52.39---PM-1.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-28-at-12.14.11---PM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Bing When You’re WinningMicrosoft had a window to win consumer AI — and perhaps the future of search![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-942.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/51VyzojTrcL._UF1000-1000_QL80_-2-7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) [Will OpenAI Ads Click with Users?And will users click on them?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-937.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_n3rihyn3rihyn3ri-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) [It’s the End of the Web as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)AI is disrupting web search and publishing, perhaps for the better…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-939.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_stack_of_newspapers_on_fire_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_c4decf79-2261-4087-9211-ca7e93b379eb_2-11.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) [Google Starts to Bridge OpenAI’s Product MoatGemini’s “Dynamic View” is a terrible name for a profound product…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-940.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-11-21-at-10.44.07---AM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) [ChatGPT Starts to Break the Bounds of ChatA necessary product evolution is underway.…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-938.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--05_20_17-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) --- 1 Exclamation and all! [↩](#) 2 Still, [Bing couldn't get Google to dance](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/), could Yahoo?! [↩](#) ### DeepSought URL: https://spyglass.org/deepseek-moment/ Last updated: 2026-04-15T13:30:17.000Z A year ago, the world changed. On January 20, 2025, DeepSeek released their 'R1' model and within a week, the burgeoning AI Bubble had burst and as a result, NVIDIA's share price plummeted. This, in turn, brought down the entire stock market. We entered a new era of "AI Winter" where cheap, open-source models replaced the insanely-expensive-to train-closed variety from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. China, in a way, had won. That, of course, is not what happened. [The "DeepSeek Moment"](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) ended up as more of a hiccup. A "Sputnik Moment" that sputtered. Well, that's not exactly fair. Because it *was* still an important moment, but more of a teaching one in that it was in part a bit of a wake up call and another part a gut check. But not exactly a moment that changed everything. I suspected as much at the time, [noting a couple days later](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/): > On Monday, just before the markets opened, [I did an "emergency pod"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Aw2UzNsZHo&ab%5Fchannel=AlexKantrowitz&ref=spyglass.org) with Alex Kantrowitz for his *Big Technology* podcast around this news. Beyond the initial reactions, I think we hit on a lot of what is now playing out. And actually, [about 34 minutes in](https://youtu.be/9Aw2UzNsZHo?si=f1GzHCe1vq-pVUbT&t=2040&ref=spyglass.org), we start to talk about what I suspect is the ultimate takeaway from all of this: DeepSeek's real fallout may have less to do with DeepSeek the company/model/product and more to do with the wake up call it provided to those powers that be. > > Said another way, everyone seemed to be locked into the notion of scaling that we were blinded to any other possible way of doing things. Even if DeepSeek is embellishing just how much money and compute was required to create their models, it doesn't really matter. The reaction from the stock market down to the startups has made it abundantly clear that there's room here to think differently about how to approach the continued build out of AI. To be clear, NVIDIA's stock *did* collapse on that day exactly a year ago. The 17% drop wiped out about $600B in market cap, which remains the all-time record. But within a couple of weeks, the stock had largely bounced back, though it remained depressed until the Summer, when the fallout had fully cleared and NVIDIA became *the first $5T company*. That drop, as it turns out, was simply a buying opportunity. A couple of weeks after DeepSeek's moment, [things were more clear still](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/): > Really, looking over all of these and taking a step back: is anything all that different than it was before DeepSeek detonated two weeks ago? Not really! Again, it’s just a mentality shift that has taken place across all of these sectors and companies. That’s undoubtedly a good thing — it’s always good to pause and revisit your strategy — but it’s not clear just how much will ultimately change in the long run. It's worth questioning that too! > > Is Europe going to win in AI now? Are more startups [going to succeed](https://spyglass.org/ai-investment-crash/)? Is Big Tech going to [spend less](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/)? Is OpenAI going to raise less? The answers here are obviously not going to be black and white, but my point is that you could certainly make the case that nothing much actually changed as a result of DeepSeek in the longer term. And again, that’s largely because it just really highlighted what was always [going to happen](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) anyway. > > What everyone was seeking is what was already seeking them. Deep, I know. While [Lina Khan and others](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/) – [including Sam Altman](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) and [Satya Nadella](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255046301?lang=en&ref=spyglass.org) – were busy trying to fit DeepSeek into their own narratives the reality was just far more nuanced. Though, [as I argued at the time](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/), really, so was Sputnik itself: > So again, I go back to the notion that DeepSeek itself matters less than what it inspires. Maybe what we really hope for here is that it simply sped up progress, even just a bit, clearing heads and roadblocks. While the notion of this being a ["Sputnik moment"](https://x.com/pmarca/status/1883640142591853011?ref=spyglass.org) is now being played up [as hyperbolic](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/#:~:text=When%20the%20Chinese,would%20be%20needed.), perhaps it's better to simply read it literally. When [the Russian satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik%5F1?ref=spyglass.org) launched in late 1957, the US was already close to space. In fact, were it not for some trepidation and bureaucracy, many believe that we could have gotten there first. It was a kick in the ass, not a fundamental rethinking of everything. Sometimes, that’s all you need. It lit a fire that stayed lit through a trip to the moon. Back to work. I bring this up both because it has been a year, but also because DeepSeek is on the verge of releasing their long-awaited next flagship model. 'V4' should be here in a matter of weeks. You can tell this not just from [the reporting on the matter](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-release-next-flagship-ai-model-strong-coding-ability?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), but also the fact that both [Alibaba](https://qwen.ai/blog?id=qwen3-max-thinking&ref=spyglass.org) and (the Alibaba-backed) [Moonshot AI](https://platform.moonshot.ai/docs/guide/kimi-k2-5-quickstart?ref=spyglass.org) pushed out their own new models this week, [clearly to get ahead of DeepSeek](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-27/china-s-moonshot-unveils-new-ai-model-ahead-of-deepseek-release?ref=spyglass.org). To be clear, 'V4' won't be a direct follow-up to 'R1', but instead to 'V3', which was the model released in December 2024 that laid the groundwork for their reasoning model breakthrough. It's unclear when 'R2' is coming – given all the delays, it's entirely possible that it's baked right into 'V4' – but it's also unclear it matters now. All eyes will be on just how close DeepSeek's flagship model can get to the top models – the focus is seemingly on coding. And, of course, *how* they trained it. Again, the true breakthrough a year ago. [The first post I actually wrote](https://spyglass.org/top-of-the-app-store-pops-2/) about the company was on that day because it was also when DeepSeek's app had shot to the top of the App Store charts, supplanting ChatGPT. A year later and the app is outside of the Top 500, at least in the US App Store. ChatGPT is back at the top.[1](#one) Yet DeepSeek still matters, [just in a different way](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/). Beyond the way it was trained, it has helped China secure a lead in "open source" models – especially once Mark Zuckerberg [decided to shoot Llama in the head](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) and start over. Much of the rest of the world seems happy to have cheaper, more extensible alternatives to the big model makers. You know, just in case. But again, where exactly China is in the "AI Race" is the subject of much debate at the moment. While [some in China are saying](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/china-ai-leaders-warn-of-widening-gap-with-us-after-1b-ipo-week?ref=spyglass.org) that they're still lagging behind the leading US firms – and that [perhaps](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/ais-pitchman-problem?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=All%20of%20this%20points%20to%20the%20AI%20gap%20with%20China%20shrinking%20fast%2C%20right%3F%20No%20so%20fast%E2%80%A6%20narrative%20violation%3A%20the%20gap%20may%20actually%20be%20growing%20%28or%20at%20least%20some%20in%20China%20may%20want%20to%20convey%20that%29.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) the chasm is *growing* – Mistral's Arthur Mensch said [this was a "fairy tale"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/china-lagging-in-ai-is-a-fairy-tale-mistral-ceo-says?ref=spyglass.org) last week in Davos. Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis was less certain, saying that the cutting edge of the Chinese AI work was [still six months behind the US](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-20/deepmind-ceo-says-chinese-ai-firms-are-6-months-behind-the-west?ref=spyglass.org). The new DeepSeek release will presumably clear this up a bit... But not entirely because obviously the US and China are still going back and forth *and then back and forth again* over exactly which NVIDIA chips – *if any* – will be allowed to be legally shipped into the country. Any legally sanctioned sales will obviously be a huge boon to NVIDIA's business, as they have basically written that business down to zero. It will also, of course, oddly help the US Treasury as [they get a cut of those would-be sales](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/). China's lesson from DeepSeek would seem to be that the restraints placed around AI forced their companies to innovate to catch up faster. And their clear hope would be that this will work with AI chips as well, as it will force Huawei and others to try to catch NVIDIA, faster. At the same time, China probably can't afford to sit back and let their companies fall behind if that strategy *doesn't* work. Never mind that a lot of these companies can simply train models in other countries using NVIDIA chips that are *not* two generations old. There are still a lot of moving pieces on the board... And that includes back in the US, where [a growing number of players](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) are starting to think beyond LLMs. Many now believe that achieving AGI, let alone "Superintelligence", will require at least a few new breakthroughs. While others believe it will be impossible to make robots fully work without ["World Models"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) – which is obviously a focus in China as well, where [a different type of AI bubble may have formed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/business/china-robot-unitree-ubtech.html?ref=spyglass.org)... Anyway, we'll see what, if any, deep impact DeepSeek has with a new year and new model. But I'll give the last words [to Hassabis](https://www.ft.com/content/a1f04b0e-73c5-4358-a65e-09e9a6bba857?ref=spyglass.org), who was chock full of good quotes at Davos last week: "I think it was a massive overreaction in the West." 👇 ****Earlier, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Hollywood Cuts Off Its Future to Spite Its PresentNetflix is obviously the best path forward for Warner Bros, you fools…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-934.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/RIP_20241028_01742_R-H-2026-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/) [Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even AppleWith competent AI incoming, Apple considers an AI Pin…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-935.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-22--2026--01_00_45-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/) [Apple’s Twin SunsJohn Ternus takes on design while Craig Federighi takes on AI as Apple prepares for a new CEO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-936.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/tatooine-2-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/) --- 1 Though it risks being taken down by a social network called UpScrolled which is [surging on the back of TikTok's sale to US investors](https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/26/social-network-upscrolled-sees-surge-in-downloads-following-tiktoks-us-takeover/?ref=spyglass.org) and concerns that there's already content moderation going on – [cue Alanis Morissette](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jne9t8sHpUc&ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) ### Aside From That, Mr. Cook, What Did You Think of the Movie? URL: https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-captured/ Last updated: 2026-04-10T10:45:51.000Z Tim Cook is captured. There is simply no other explanation for his actions over the past year or so. But it perhaps culminated this weekend when Cook went to a special private showing of [the documentary *Melania*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melania%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org) at the White House. Yes, *that* [Melania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melania%5FTrump?ref=spyglass.org). That in and of itself would have probably been fine. I mean, it's potentially problematic for a host of reasons that I'll get to, but such is our world right now. Then one shot – a gunshot – turned attending that movie screening into a statement... While Cook was enjoying his popcorn and champagne with the likes of Mike Tyson, Tony Robbins, and other "VIPs", it was complete and utter chaos on the streets of Minnesota. Just hours earlier, Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse, was shot and killed by ICE agents. Maybe, just maybe, postpone the movie premiere? Of course, President Trump was never going to do that because the official White House stance is that Pretti was a "domestic terrorist" and the agents were acting in self defense. And never mind that this was the second such murder in the past 17 days, the show must go on! But it didn't have to for Cook. He could have, *and should have*, backed out of the event. *Obviously*. The fact that he didn't either suggests horrible judgement on his part or worse, cowardice. This is a man and leader of one of the biggest and most important businesses in the world who had long been thought to have a great moral compass. He has lost his way. I would say he has also lost his mind, but from a pure business perspective, you can see how he would try to justify this. It's gross, but it is what it is. Apple, perhaps more so than any other company needs to maintain a working relationship with Trump. Because Trump has [clearly zeroed in on Apple and Cook in particular](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/), as his own personal rag doll. This is in part because Apple is one of the most valuable companies in the world and arguably the best known, certainly [from a consumer-perspective](https://spyglass.org/trump-throws-apple-under-the-tariff-bus/). But it's also in part Cook's own fault, as he's made it clear that he would bend over backwards to work with Trump to benefit Apple – [which has worked at times](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/) – dating to [the first administration](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/). But if you give a mouse [a golden trinket](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/)... Anyway, all of this means that Cook [must stay](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) in Trump's good graces. He has already learned this "lesson" once, the hard way, [when he turned down going on tour with Trump](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/) to be trotted out as [a human trophy](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20All%20the%20President%E2%80%99s%20Tech%20CEOs). As a result, Cook, and by extension, Apple, were thrown [right back under the tariff bus](https://spyglass.org/apples-no-good-very-bad-week/). With that context, going to a movie premiere may seem like relatively low-stakes. But the situation changed with the situation in Minnesota unfolding in real time. I mean, Jesus Fucking Christ. Read the room. Or the news. Or even just a tweet. Cook, [clearly terrified of Trump](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/), could have said he had [a cold](https://spyglass.org/apple-q2-2025-earnings/). He could have said anything. Instead, [there he was being photographed](https://x.com/ddiamond/status/2015550948966346756?ref=spyglass.org) with director [Brett Ratner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett%5FRatner?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) Of course, Cook was not alone at this event.[2](#two) There were a few other business leaders, most notably Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon. But he also had a direct business reason for being there, albeit a seemingly ridiculous one in that Amazon produced the [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/25/politics/melania-trump-documentary-test?ref=spyglass.org) $75M (!) movie. Did I mention this was a *documentary*? But [costs tend to balloon](https://puck.news/will-the-melania-trump-movie-actually-make-money/?ref=spyglass.org) when you're paying a [reported](https://puck.news/newsletter%5Fcontent/what-im-hearing-melanias-40m-price-tag-surefire-25-predictions-2/?ref=spyglass.org) *$28M* to the *subject* of the documentary. Amazon's offer was [apparently 3x the next closest one](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-family-election-cash-bonanza-2f5f8714?mod=hp%5Flead%5Fpos7&ref=spyglass.org)... Yes, this was essentially Jassy's version of Cook's gold trinket gift to Trump. Albeit a far more expensive and elaborate one! Anyway, that's why Jassy (and Amazon MGM head Mike Hopkins) were on hand. They should have backed out too, but at least there's a business excuse, I guess. What's Cook's rationale here? Again, beyond being a captured man? In this light, you can almost see why he wouldn't want to [retire from the Apple CEO role](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) anytime soon. Not because he enjoys or even wants such power, but, giving him some benefit of the doubt here, because he doesn't want to subject *anyone else* *at Apple* to such tasks.[3](#three) Perhaps best to wait out the Trump administration, or at least until after the midterms, when you don't have to squint now to see [tech starting to turn against Trump](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=Tech%20starts%20to%20turn%20on%20Trump) as he creeps upon lame duck status... For now, the embarrassment will [continue](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2026/01/22/the-scale-of-ice-protests-in-minnesota?ref=spyglass.org) for Cook. The harming of an otherwise [outstanding](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) legacy at Apple sold not for a song, but for a movie ticket. --- **Update January 28, 2026**: Tim Cook has now addressed the situation, in the briefest of ways possible, [in a memo to Apple employees](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-28/apple-s-cook-calls-for-deescalation-after-latest-ice-shooting?ref=spyglass.org). While calling for a "deescalation" – which mirrors President Trump's own words – the clear point of the memo is to suggest that Cook used his time with Trump this week to have a "good conversation with the president". Was that before or after the credits rolled on the movie screening? Cook does not directly address the event itself, which is of course the problem here. --- **Update January 28, 2026**: Some further thoughts on what Tim Cook and Apple could be thinking here – no matter how misguided... [Apple’s Dark KnightDecoding Tim Cook’s seemingly stunningly stupid strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-943.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_tim_cook_with_a_batman_mask_on_16x9_illustration_--a_4ed451c6-72a9-428d-b92e-aabdbd99ad49_1--1-.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-dark-knight-strategy/) Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- 1 One has to wonder what the star of Apple TV's *Your Friends and Neighbors*, Olivia Munn, [thinks about that](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/olivia-munn-rejects-7-figure-offer-stay-quiet-movie-set-1236141436/?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) 2 Given [everything going on](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/ai-sets-its-sights-on-email?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=China%20may%20be%20about%20to%20approve%20NVIDIA%E2%80%99s%20H200%20chips%20for%20purchase%20as%20soon%20as%20this%20quarter.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) with NVIDIA and chip sales to China, I wouldn't have been shocked to see Jensen Huang there. But he was busy... [in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-shanghai-amid-china-regulatory-headwinds-2026-01-24/?ref=spyglass.org). Where was Zuck? [You could have seen him jumping at such an invite.](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) Maybe upset that the FTC is [appealing](https://www.reuters.com/world/ftc-will-appeal-ruling-meta-antitrust-case-over-instagram-whatsapp-deals-2026-01-20/?ref=spyglass.org) their [antitrust loss?](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) [↩](#) 3 [Could you imagine](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) John Ternus, in his first week on the job, having to go kiss Trump's ring? [He has other things to worry about](https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/)... [↩](#) ### The Clock Starts for Star Wars: Episode X URL: https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-x/ Last updated: 2026-09-27T14:16:41.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-24--2026--08_45_40-PM-3.png) Reading [all](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/business/star-wars-lucasfilm-kathleen-kennedy.html?ref=spyglass.org) [the](https://www.ft.com/content/d19b26f4-2e4f-467e-9bc6-812964ed82c6?ref=spyglass.org) [posts](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/star-wars-lucasfilm-kathkleen-kennedy-1236476418/?ref=spyglass.org) about Kathleen Kennedy's ([drawn-out](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/)) exit from Lucasfilm,[1](#one) handing over the reins of the *Star Wars* universe [to Dave Filoni](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/183695109/dave-filoni-handed-disneys-lucasfilm-lightsaber?ref=spyglass.org) (and technically, Lynwen Brennan – but Filoni for creative purposes),[2](#two) they all sort of dance around the big question: *where is he going to take it?* They all note the work that's already well underway or in the pipeline, but they're all tangential elements at best. What everyone really wants to know is: when and how he'll do the next *Star Wars* trilogy? Because it's obviously coming. It has to be. You don't give someone the power at Lucasfilm and not let them continue the main stories that everyone cares most about. It would be like taking over Nintendo and never doing another Mario game. And Filoni, [famously](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/kennedy-retire-star-wars-producer-lucasfilm-filoni-named-president-2026-01-15/?ref=spyglass.org), was hired and mentored by George Lucas himself before he sold Lucasfilm to Disney. And Filoni wasn't a production/operations person like Kennedy, he was a full-on creative, cutting his teeth in animation and screenwriting. He must be champing at the bit to continue what Lucas started... At the same time, he's also well known [to be in-the-weeds](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/star-wars-kathleen-kennedy-steps-down-dave-filoni-1236465012/?ref=spyglass.org) when it comes to *Star Wars*. Perhaps (and probably) too much. That has worked with a lot of the animation projects because those are both less mainstream and in a way, animation gives you cover to try more things. Disney had previously announced that the first live-action *Star Wars* movie that Filoni would direct would be a cross-over between *The Mandalorian*, *The Book of Boba Fett*, *Ahsoka*, and *The Skeleton Crew* – all Disney+ series – but Kennedy clearly back-burnered it in favor of this summer's *Mandalorian & Grogu* movie (co-written by Filoni but directed by Jon Favreau). And that was undoubtedly a smart move. While *The Mandalorian* has been a hit, the other three are bigger [question marks](https://500ish.com/you-havent-aged-a-day-7d01b5e0cb46?ref=spyglass.org). Releasing a feature film relying on knowledge from each of those shows was potentially a recipe for disaster. Better to stick with what works and throw in a sweetener by putting Grogu – aka "Baby Yoda" – right there in the title and marketing.[3](#three) So the question now is if Filoni will be able to make such calls without Kennedy around to check his tendencies. And to be clear and fair, Kennedy [*clearly*](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) had her own tendencies which [could have used](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-server-space/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%BF%20Is%20Disney,challenge...%20%5BTHR%5D) some checking over these past many years. Beyond *Solo*, which she's taking a new round of flack for in the press with the retirement cycle – FWIW, I didn't think it was *awful*, [just totally unnecessary](https://500ish.com/han-what-5c468c19e684?ref=spyglass.org) – there was *Obi-Wan*, [which was sloppy](https://500ish.com/obi-wan-mostly-lost-df89ecf210f7?ref=spyglass.org) and almost tedious. And *The Acolyte*, which was [legitimately *bad* at points](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/). And that one points back to a Filoni concern in a way because the driving force there, Leslye Headland, was also clearly an in-the-weeds nerd for this stuff. Before the show hit, [I wondered if that might be a problem](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte/) and well, [it was](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-mostly-sucked/). Which brings it back to *Star Wars*, the main timeline and trilogies. Again, it's clearly going to happen. Beyond Filoni taking over Lucasfilm, *Disney itself is also* [*on the verge*](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/the-bens?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=It%20sounds%20like%20we%E2%80%99re%20just%20weeks%20away%20from%20knowing%20Disney%E2%80%99s%20new%20CEO%2C%20with%20an%20announcement%20said%20to%20be%20next%20month.%20%28Though%20Bob%20Iger%20will%20undoubtedly%20stick%20around%20for%20some%20sort%20of%20transition%20period%2C%20as%20his%20contract%20is%20through%202026.%29%20%5BLAT%5D) *of getting a* [*new CEO*](https://spyglass.org/disney-cruises-to-damaro/). That person is clearly going to want to/need to play the new *Star Wars* trilogy card at some point. The question is how Filoni approaches and handles it... Does he try to take them on himself? Perhaps bringing in some of the ideas Lucas passed on to Disney (perhaps written up to juice the sale price) at the time of sale? A couple elements made it into *Episodes VII, VIII, and IX*, but for the most part, everything was thrown out. [It does seem like](https://screenrant.com/star-wars-maul-apprentice-darth-talon-george-lucas-episode-7-plans-canon/?ref=spyglass.org) Filoni is on the verge of restoring some of those plot points with the forthcoming [*Maul – Shadow Lord* show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star%5FWars:%5FMaul%5F%E2%80%93%5FShadow%5FLord?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, another animated series for Disney+. As the title implies, it centers around yes, Darth Maul. Yes, after his – 27 year spoiler alert! – mauling by Obi-Wan Kenobi in *Episode I*. And yes, continuing on from what was teased in – 8 year spoiler alert! – *Solo*. And yes – spoiler for the animated series – *The Clone Wars* and *Rebels* too*.* Or maybe this new series is simply a way to wink to those Lucas ideas for '[Darth Talon](https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Darth%5FTalon?ref=spyglass.org)' and whatnot. Does Filoni view [the Simon Kinberg project(s)](https://spyglass.org/new-star-wars-maybe/) as the potential continuation of the main cannon? They're still being written – ["very good, but not there"](https://deadline.com/2026/01/kathleen-kennedy-exit-interview-1236665253/?ref=spyglass.org) to quote Kennedy herself – but the plan was said to be for three movies... Lucasfilm apparently pushed back on the notion in the past that these would be a continuation of the Skywalker Saga but there's some fuzziness there. And again, it's a work very much in progress... Then there's [the new Rey movie](https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Untitled%5FStar%5FWars%5Ffilm%5F%28Sharmeen%5FObaid-Chinoy%29?ref=spyglass.org), which would obviously be a continuation of the Saga, but apparently wasn't intended to be the start of the next trilogy and more just an offshoot. But no one knows since not only is it not written, it has seemingly been in pre-production hell for years now without a clear status. Does Filoni (re)approach Steven Soderbergh and Adam Driver to resurrect [their Ben Solo sequel](https://spyglass.org/disney-kills-kylo-ren-again/) which Kennedy apparently liked but Disney itself cut down? Taika Waititi's take is [still clearly top of mind for him](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/taika-waititi-star-wars-thor-avengers-doomsday-1236640037/?ref=spyglass.org), but sounds... different. Could next year's [*Starfighter*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star%5FWars:%5FStarfighter?ref=spyglass.org) evolve into [something more](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/184067078/the-on-time-and-on-budget-jedi?ref=spyglass.org)... There are clearly a lot of options, but the best one may be to keep it simple and just write a series of sequels to *The Rise of Skywalker*. Luke is gone. Leia is gone. Han is gone. But we're getting to the point that there may be some nostalgia building for the newer characters that remain – at least from *The Force Awakens*. Get a great writer in there, perhaps a fresh set of eyes, Tony Gilroy-style.[4](#four) Focus on the characters and a good story. Decent dialog is pure icing on the cake in this universe. Yes, maybe *somehow*, Ben Solo can return. Snoke? Plagueis? [Brad Bird?](https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-legacy-analysis/?ref=spyglass.org) [Colin Trevorrow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star%5FWars:%5FDuel%5Fof%5Fthe%5FFates?ref=spyglass.org)?! Just, for the love of god, not Palpatine.[5](#five) --- **Update September 27, 2026**: Movement on Episode X... [Star Wars: Episode TentativeJon Watts seems a safe director choice, perhaps way too safe…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8cadc5bd-6515-475b-bfb7-ada1ccea3643.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_3-1-d98649df-8db9-408a-bcaa-2137d7b9c86b.png)](https://spyglass.org/star-wars-episode-ten-tative/) --- 1 I didn't realize that [she got her start as Spielberg's assistant](https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-legacy-analysis/?ref=spyglass.org) – technically the assistant as someone who worked in the same building as Spielberg and he poached her! To its credit, that is often how Hollywood works! [↩](#) 2 [As expected/predicted](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/#:~:text=But%20now%2C%20a%20new%20hope.%20I%27d%20be%20shocked%20if%20anyone%20other%20than%20Dave%20Filoni%20takes%20over%20the%20reins.)... [↩](#) 3 And even then, it's far from a sure thing this will be a huge hit – and I suspect that's exactly why they're leveraging Baby Yoda in the title and marketing, he's the viral hit. But that was also a long time ago... [↩](#) 4 Perhaps the biggest concern with Dave Filoni going forward in this role is [the report he apparently disliked *Andor*](https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-legacy-analysis/?ref=spyglass.org), undoubtedly the best bit of *Star Wars* content in years. [↩](#) 5 Also [ideally not Robert Downey Jr.](https://spyglass.org/doctor-doom-marvel-downey-jr/) [↩](#) ### Apple's Twin Suns URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-a-new-hope/ Last updated: 2026-04-10T10:45:27.000Z Yesterday brought two bits of reporting about Apple that are seemingly unrelated, and yet also sort of related. The first was [a report by Aaron Tilley and Wayne Ma for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-deal-apples-craig-federighi-plots-cautious-course-ai?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), diving into how Apple SVP Craig Federighi was recently tasked with overseeing the company's AI efforts. Later came [a report from Mark Gurman at *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/apple-hardware-chief-john-ternus-now-overseeing-design-tim-cook-ceo-succession?ref=spyglass.org) noting how another Apple SVP, John Ternus, had been quietly tasked with overseeing the company's design efforts. Over the past year, these have been the two areas of Apple under the most fire. And they're arguably the two most important areas of Apple going forward. Now being overseen by perhaps the two most important figures within Apple going forward... ### Design is How Apple Works Let's start with design. It has obviously been a focal point of the company since inception, as Steve Jobs famously pushed the mantra of design not just being about how something looks, but how it works. The attention to detail on the back of cabinets and circuit boards and all that. And while it seemed to take a backseat in the industry with the rise of Microsoft and the PC in the 1990s, Apple came roaring back to become the most valuable company on Earth thanks in no small part to this continued focus. But in the past year or so, Apple has been under quite a bit of fire for some design choices, almost all of which are on the software side of the house. Most notably, with [the transition to "Liquid Glass"](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) as the overarching UI theme. To be fair, much of this criticism started after the person overseeing such efforts, Alan Dye, had announced [his departure to Meta](https://spyglass.org/alan-dye-apple-meta-ui/) – a big rebuke to the rival that Mark Zuckerberg clearly hates the most. But the design complaints certainly started before that as well. Anecdotally, I know quite a few people who have no idea who runs design at Apple who refuse to install the latest versions of the OSes because of the way they look. And [there's data to suggest](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/184067078/i-quote?ref=spyglass.org) they're not alone. That is not why Ternus is now overseeing the group. In fact, if anything, it may make it [a harder time](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) for him to oversee such things because he has no formal background in design beyond his work helping to steer it within the hardware group he has overseen (a group which, I should note, [gets no such criticism](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/)). But he could be a fresh set of eyes to help right the ship, as it were. And it's not only a good challenge for him, it's a *vital* one, as he's [the person believed to be next in line](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) to [succeed Tim Cook as CEO of Apple](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/). Granted, Cook had no such design talent or aspirations either. But he didn't need to – he had Jony Ive in place when he took over the reins from Steve Jobs. In many eyes – and certainly with hindsight – even Ive became problematic on the software side of design when he was thrown into that role (having also previously focused on hardware design) after Cook ousted Scott Forstall. Most people will know this as the time when Jobs' beloved skeuomorphism vanished in favor of flat. Apple's software design really [hasn't been the same since](https://www.threads.com/@heliographe.studio/post/DTeOwAykwQ1?ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, fast forward a few more years and Ive too was gone from Apple.[1](#one) Losing someone of his stature put the company in a tricky spot. How do you replace Jony Ive? The answer is that you don't. That led to design ultimately reporting up to Jeff Williams, Cook's COO. Also without the design background, Williams seemed like a good steward as a sort of jack-of-many-trades executive (while obviously mainly focused on supply chain, like Cook before him, he also oversaw Apple Watch, etc). Fast forward a few more years and here we are at the present with Williams having just retired at the end of last year. With that move, design shifted, at least functionally, to reporting up to Cook. Two problems there. First, again, this is not Cook's world. But second, and more pressing, Cook is on the verge of retiring himself. Perhaps not imminently, but [clearly](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/184067078/is-tim-cook-tired?ref=spyglass.org) soon. At which point design will have to be handed off yet again... This is what led me to [a sort of casual prediction/thought last July](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) when the news first came out that Williams would be retiring: > Design is a far trickier topic. Once Williams actually retires to start 2026, that team will transition to noted design expert Tim Cook. > > I kid, I kid. But really, it's weird. But it also feels like they don't really have another option here. Though I might note that if Ternus really is in line to be the next CEO now – something that obviously seems more likely than ever with this news – perhaps it would be good to get him that experience? Perhaps especially while Williams is still there to oversee that transition? Well, sure enough, as Gurman reports: > Apple Inc. has expanded the job of hardware chief John Ternus to include design work, solidifying his status as a leading contender to eventually succeed Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook. > > Cook, who has led Apple since 2011 and turned 65 in November, quietly tapped Ternus to manage the company’s design teams at the end of last year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. That widens Ternus’ role to add one of the company’s most critical functions. If that timetable is correct, it sounds like Williams handed off the oversight of the design groups right to Ternus. And it makes sense for the exactly the reason I suggested last year, it's one of the – [if not *the*](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) – most critical areas within Apple. And they've floundered a bit in recent years because it has been passed around, in particular with awkward transitions as people left and there were not other real options. Better to try to set Ternus up for success here with an orderly transition. And he'll have more time because again, Cook's departure doesn't seem imminent. And per Gurman's reporting, design is still technically reporting up to Cook on paper. This also gives the company some cover in not tipping their hand that Ternus is the heir apparent, even though it's widely reported now. Certainly if Ternus was announced to be formally taking oversight of design, that would be the absolute indication he was the next CEO of Apple – and for whatever reason, Apple clearly isn't ready to do that. So instead we'll have to just go with the reporting. But yes, it's the most clear cut sign yet that Ternus is the guy. If it's not fully settled yet, this could be a final "test" of sorts for Ternus. Again, design is in a sort of state of disarray post-Dye. Can he stabilize that ship and set them back on the right path? And if he can't in the next few months, does it in some way encumber his path to CEO? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Gemini_Generated_Image_9mjt4j9mjt4j9mjt-2.png) ### The AI Path Forward Honestly, probably not, but humor me. What if Craig Federighi is on a similar path with AI? It is interesting that given how forward-facing Federighi has been for years on stage at Apple's keynotes, and how vital he has been to the company, that he hasn't been the front-runner for the CEO job. The only obvious explanation may be that he simply doesn't want it. And if so, fair enough. But are there many people that rise to the level of SVP at large companies that don't ultimately aspire to the top job? And especially at Apple, one of the most powerful and important companies in the world?[2](#two) Federighi is older than Ternus – 58 versus 50 – but he's seemingly still in that "Goldilocks" zone for corporate CEOs: not too old, not too young. And given his aforementioned stage presence, he seems to be a *young* 58\. Certainly he can give Apple another decade of work, if not more. Despite the age difference, Ternus has actually been at Apple *longer* – about 25 years – versus Federighi who first came over (with Steve Jobs) in 1996 with the NeXT acquisition. But he left in 1999 before coming back a decade later, and he's been at Apple ever since – 17 straight years, and about 20 in total. Anyway, again, Ternus seems to be the chosen one, and it's hard to see that changing. And interestingly enough, in Gurman's latest report, he notes that Sabih Khan, Apple's new COO (though a *31 year Apple veteran* himself) after Williams, is "the other internal CEO candidate" – no mention of Federighi, despite [other recent reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/technology/apple-ceo-tim-cook-john-ternus.html?ref=spyglass.org) still naming him as a would-be candidate.[3](#three) All I'm saying is that if Federighi still has any shot – and again, if he even *wants* any shot – he's getting the other, and arguably far more challenging and daunting task at Apple right now: fixing AI. *The Information* report is full of tidbits, notably including Federighi's initial [reluctance](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) to lead such an effort for Apple, which seemingly led directly to John Giannandrea coming on board. And how Mike Rockwell, then overseeing early Vision Pro efforts, went to Federighi to implore him to use AI more within iOS, which Federighi apparently rejected worried about the unpredictable and chaotic nature of the (still early) technology. That changed, of course, with ChatGPT, as has been widely cited by now. Once Federighi had his come-to-Jesus moment there, he seemingly had [a fire lit under him](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/), like Rockwell, to [get Siri straightened out](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). And now, of course, the two are working hand-in-hand [post-JG](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/), with Rockwell leading the Siri efforts [directly](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/), reporting [to Federighi](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/). But the report also notes that it was Federighi who ultimately made the call to outsource Apple's AI efforts – which likely sealed the fate of [much of Apple's current AI team](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/), including JG. And the resulting [internal bake-off](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) led to Google being [crowned the winner](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). Now it's on him to make it actually all work. For real this time. And the stakes could not be any higher, any faster. The first revamp to Siri is due in a couple short months with iOS 26.4. Meanwhile, Federighi is also overseeing the broader AI push across all of Apple's products – including [the new 'HomePad' device](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) which has been delayed due to Apple's AI struggles – which should culminate, once again, with announcements at WWDC. Seemingly without many new features planned for iOS 27 (and the other new OSes), and with "Liquid Glass" likely in place for at least the next iteration – your move, Ternus – all eyes will be on AI. And not just developers, but the public, and yes, Wall Street. Will we finally get [the true "AiPhone"](https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/) this Fall? There's obviously not a lot of time, but if Federighi can pull this AI course correction off and show Apple to be on the right path... It will be a big mark in his favor, is all I'm saying. Yes, even if they're outsourcing much of the heavy-lifting to Google. It [still took](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) someone with, dare I say, [*courage*](https://500ish.com/courage-6725268010e1?ref=spyglass.org), to [make that call](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/). Plus the knowledge that it's a temporary fix until Apple's AI house can be truly put in order. And there's still very much a world in which Apple *benefits* from [not being in the middle](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) of the current LLM arms race, depending [how things shake out](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) over the next year or two... ### Two Roads Diverge... So that's two tall tasks and two new taskmasters. Maybe it all has some bearing on the CEO job or maybe not. But both paths will certainly be key to where Apple goes from here. A true new era for the company. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-23--2026--01_12_13-PM-3.png) --- 1 Yes, there were a couple years there where Ive had stepped back into a less operational – or certainly less managerial – role and Cook was technically overseeing the design teams then too. [↩](#) 2 And with Tim Cook likely stepping into the Chairman role eventually, the next CEO can hopefully avoid [giving out golden trinkets to you-know-who](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/)... [↩](#) 3 Khan could very well be the "backup plan", sort of the role Williams seemingly filled under Cook – someone who could step in at a moment's notice. Something Apple learned the hard way during Jobs' unfortunate illness. [↩](#) ### Pinning Hopes on New AI Hardware – Again – Even Apple URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-pin-wearable/ Last updated: 2026-04-06T08:56:38.000Z AI wearables, so hot right now. Of course, they were also so hot [two years ago](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/) when a rush of startups started to push such wares into the world. Yeah, [that didn't go so well](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-brutal-review/). Humane [crashed and burned](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/) and the team is [now running](https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/humanes-ai-pin-is-dead-as-hp-buys-startups-assets-for-116m/?ref=spyglass.org) HP printers. [Limitless found](https://spyglass.org/limitless-pendant/) some limits after all and was [forced to sell to Meta](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/05/meta-limitless-ai-wearable.html?ref=spyglass.org) – not even a "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)", for shame – with their product no more. [Rabbit couldn't find](https://spyglass.org/rabbit-r1-mkbhd-rant/) their way out of the hat, and [it seems to be](https://www.engadget.com/rabbit-plots-its-redemption-arc-120000271.html?ref=spyglass.org) more focused on AI software instead. Friend is far better known for their [divisive marketing](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2025/10/friend-ai-companion-ads/684451/?ref=spyglass.org) rather than [their product](https://spyglass.org/ai-friend-wearable/). There were others, none [achieving](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-device-no-taste-test/) any real scale or success, of course... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### An Actual AiPhone URL: https://spyglass.org/an-actual-aiphone/ Last updated: 2026-04-06T08:56:14.000Z By my count, this is [my](https://spyglass.org/aiphone/) fifth [headline](https://spyglass.org/google-ai-iphone/) trying [to](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-aiphone/) make '[AiPhone](https://spyglass.org/aiphone-hold-the-ai/)' happen. I should probably stop. But tonight is not the night, damnit. Because there is once again hope. Hope that Apple has finally taken their collective head [out of the sand](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/). That they're going to rise to meet the moment that is AI. There have been signs. After the [complete and utter debacle](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) of Apple's first attempt to launch the AiPhone in 2024, the embarrassment [stretched into 2025](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) with almost nothing to show for it. [Heads finally rolled](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/), but that still wasn't enough because it still wasn't clear that even with new people in place, that Apple would be on the right path with AI. After all, many of the key players who had spent the past several years downplaying the importance of LLMs, or of NVIDIA chips, or belittling chatbots [were still in place](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/). Well, [that finally changed](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing) a couple months ago and look at that: it now feels like Apple is being honest with themselves at least. Siri [wasn't just](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) a few [tweaks away](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/), [Siri needed](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) a [lobotomy](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/). And after a new brain [bakeoff](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/), they got one [in the form of Gemini](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). Finally, a world-class back-end to power Siri. But she was still sort of stuck in 2016 mode. Basically [a smart speaker version](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) of AI. Well now Siri may be on the verge of getting a new front-end to match the new back-end too, it seems. [As Mark Gurman reports for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/ios-27-apple-to-revamp-siri-as-built-in-iphone-mac-chatbot-to-fend-off-openai?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple Inc. plans to revamp Siri later this year by turning the digital assistant into the company’s first artificial intelligence chatbot, thrusting the iPhone maker into a generative AI race dominated by OpenAI and Google. > > The chatbot — code-named Campos — will be embedded deeply into the iPhone, iPad and Mac operating systems and replace the current Siri interface, according to people familiar with the plan. Users will be able to summon the new service the same way they open Siri now, by speaking the “Siri” command or holding down the side button on their iPhone or iPad. The keyword there, of course, is "chatbot". On the surface, that may not sound much different from current Siri, but again, instead of being the sort of one-off voice assistant, Siri should now be a full-on, LLM-powered AI. The difference should be even more apparent because it sounds like we're still first going to get "old" Siri just with that new Gemini-powered brain in iOS 26.4 this Spring, before we get new Siri in iOS 27 this Fall. The first version will likely just be competent (finally), while the second version should actually be *conversational*. An actual AI product like we're used to from ChatGPT or yes, Gemini itself. > The previously promised, non-chatbot update to Siri — retaining the current interface — is [planned for iOS 26.4](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/apple-targets-spring-2026-for-release-of-delayed-siri-ai-upgrade?ref=spyglass.org), due in the coming months. The idea behind that upgrade is to add features unveiled in 2024, including the ability to analyze on-screen content and tap into personal data. It also will be better at searching the web. > > The chatbot capabilities will come later in the year, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private. The company aims to unveil that technology in June at its Worldwide Developers Conference and release it in September. > > Campos, which will have both voice- and typing-based modes, will be the primary new addition to Apple’s upcoming operating systems. The company is integrating it into iOS 27 and iPadOS 27, both code-named Rave, as well as macOS 27, internally known as Fizz. Gurman notes that this change may be the biggest revamp of iOS 27, after last year's [big "Liquid Glass" UI changes](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/). So it will be especially important to get this right. To take the iPhone and make it the AiPhone. > Internally, Apple is testing the chatbot technology as a standalone Siri app, similar to the ChatGPT and Gemini options available in the App Store. The company doesn’t plan to offer that version to customers, though. Instead, it will integrate the software across its operating systems, like the Siri of today. Interesting that Siri still won't have an *app* in this new iOS 27 build. I'm not sure this isn't a mistake simply because that's how people – iPhone users in particular – [know to interact](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) with AI chatbots right now. Sure, you still want Siri running underneath, always on, as it were. But it would probably be helpful for users to have a hub – a Siri app – to load up. We'll see, I guess! > Like ChatGPT and Google Gemini, Apple’s chatbot will allow users to search the web for information, create content, generate images, summarize information and analyze uploaded files. It also will draw on personal data to complete tasks, being able to more easily locate specific files, songs, calendar events and text messages. > > Unlike third-party chatbots running on Apple devices, the planned offering is designed to analyze open windows and on-screen content in order to take actions and suggest commands. It will also be able to control device features and settings, allowing it to make phone calls, set timers and launch the camera. Yes, this all sounds great – if it actually works [this time](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). It sounds like... the AiPhone. > One issue under discussion is how much the chatbot will be allowed to remember about its users. ChatGPT and other conversational AI tools can retain an extensive memory of past interactions, allowing them to draw on conversations and personal details when fulfilling requests. Apple is considering sharply limiting this capability in the interest of privacy. Uh oh, this may be Apple falling back to their old ways of thinking again. We all understand why – [and I've written about the potential AI memory "problems" in the past](https://spyglass.org/ai-distant-memory/) – but this may be another situation where the market has spoken. If all the other popular AI services have great memory features that remember a lot about you but Apple limits this, it could hurt the product. Beyond that, Gurman goes into the weeds about the differences in foundation model terminology for the first new version of Siri we're going to see – seemingly in just a matter of weeks – versus the one due this Fall. One big thing of note: > In a potential policy shift for Apple, the two partners are discussing hosting the chatbot directly on Google servers running powerful chips known as TPUs, or tensor processing units. The more immediate Siri update, in contrast, will operate on Apple’s own Private Cloud Compute servers, which rely on high-end Mac chips for processing. It's fairly well known that Apple already [uses](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) Google Cloud for some of their infrastructure – and TPUs for much of their AI work (as they still have [that pesky NVIDIA aversion](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/)), so this shouldn't be too shocking. Still. I'd be surprised if Apple doesn't tout this as running some variation of Private Cloud Compute *in* Google Cloud. Then again, Apple is clearly building this new Siri to be more extensible. The early talking points will be so that they can operate in China, which will obviously not allow Google-powered models powering Chinese iPhones. But eventually, this will let Apple swap out Gemini for other AI brains as well – ideally, one day, their own. That will be the true AiPhone, I suppose. For now, this will have to do. **One more thing:** is there a world in which Apple uses the big, new AI upgrade in iOS 27 to also rebrand Siri? It sounds like that's not in the cards right now, but it obviously also might not be the worst idea given Siri's past stumbles... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Lo! The AiPhone Nears...Apple Boosts Plans to Bring AI to iPhones Apple is quietly increasing its capabilities in artificial intelligence... Financial Times Michael Acton On one hand, all of this feels fairly obvious. Yes, Apple is planning to have AI be a part of the iPhone going forward – just like every company currently![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-914.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPhone-AI-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/aiphone/) [Outsourcing the aiPhone – At Least to Start...Apple Is in Talks to Let Google Gemini Power iPhone AI FeaturesApple Inc. is in talks to build Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone, according to people familiar with the situation, setting the stage for a blockbuster agreement that would shake up the AI industry.BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-915.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPhone-powered-by-Google-AI-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-ai-iphone/) [A Tale of Two AiPhonesGoogle and Apple are building the same thing in pretty opposite ways![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-916.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-08-20-at-8.24.52-PM-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-aiphone/) [The Slow Build to the aiPhoneMore delays for Apple’s AI rollout…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-917.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPhone-painting-man-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/aiphone-hold-the-ai/) ### Make TVs Great Again URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-television/ Last updated: 2026-04-02T06:58:43.000Z When you think about the central piece of technology in your home, it's probably not the computer, or the tablet, or even the smartphone. It's the TV. This was true 50 years ago, and it's still true today. Arguably, it's more true today thanks to the rise of streaming services and video games and yes, [increasingly even YouTube](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/). And so it's wild that despite this key focal point in everyones' lives, the market for those actual televisions well, sucks. I'm reminded of this every single time I turn on my television set. Because every time I turn on my television set I see one of two things: either a pop-up asking me to install a software update or a main screen featuring a bunch of bloatware and ads. It's just a shitty, shitty experience. But it wasn't always like this. When I was a kid in the 1980s and 1990s, TVs were morphing from these massive boxes with tiny rounded screens into well, even more massive boxes with increasingly flat, larger screens. This is when Sony was at the height of their power, and the "[Trinitron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinitron?ref=spyglass.org)" brand – amazingly started in the late 1960s – reigned supreme as the premium player in the market. I distinctly recall frequently going to electronics stores and lusting over the latest and greatest under that brand. It was sort of the Apple of the day, in a way. And so the little kid in me is shocked by the news today that [Sony is exiting the TV business](https://www.theverge.com/news/864263/sony-tcl-tv-business-partnership-takeover-announcement?ref=spyglass.org). Technically, [they're spinning the business off](https://www.sony.co.jp/en/news-release/202601/26-0120E/?ref=spyglass.org) into a joint venture, but it's one TCL, the Chinese brand, will control. Wild. A true end of an era. Granted, it has been a long time since Sony dominated in television. By revenue, they're now the number five player in the space, behind Samsung, TCL, LG, and Hisense. TCL was already the number two player, but when Sony is added to their mix, they'll be much closer to Samsung, by far the leader. It will also make for a top 5 that is all Korean or Chinese players (with Xiaomi taking over Sony's spot). Japan, which once utterly dominated television sets, has all but vanished from the market. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-at-11.13.06---AM-6.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-at-11.12.50---AM-4.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-at-11.15.23---AM-2.png) Meanwhile, America, which started the whole industry with RCA in the late 1930s, and completely dominated the first few decades, has basically only one player now, the super affordable (read: cheap) brand [Vizio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vizio?ref=spyglass.org) (now owned by Walmart, with the sets themselves obviously made in Asia). Of course, the US hasn't really been a major player since the 1960s, when Japan started to take over. Why? Well, it's complicated, but essentially RCA gave away the keys to the kingdom in exchange for a licensing fee and this started a race to the bottom. To the point where now, famously, it's a sort of crappy business to be in. Despite the aforementioned growing importance of the technology in homes around the world over that time – and again, even to this day! – it's an extremely low-margin business. With margins continuing to get squeezed even further over time. Which leads me, naturally, to Apple. Apple is not in the TV business. Well, they are, but famously not in the *television set* business. This despite years and years of analyst predictions – namely from Gene Munster – that they were about to enter the space. To be fair to Munster, they were clearly *thinking about* and even *working* in the world. It's easy to forget but the Apple TV set-top box was another key part of the keynote where Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone! He famously labeled it as more of [a "hobby" for Apple](https://allthingsd.com/20121026/apple-tv-upgraded-to-beloved-hobby-from-hobby/?ref=spyglass.org), but clearly also thought that eventually it could become [a leg of Apple's "stool"](https://allthingsd.com/20121026/apple-tv-upgraded-to-beloved-hobby-from-hobby/?ref=spyglass.org) – a key pillar of Apple's overall business. That never really happened, in part because Apple and Jobs were also clearly working behind-the-scenes on broader ambitions in television. To the point where some of Jobs last recorded words were [the famous "I finally cracked it" comment](https://parislemon.com/post/11748025228/i-finally-cracked-it?ref=spyglass.org) to his biographer Walter Isaacson, discussing [the company's television ambitions](https://parislemon.com/post/4675190960/on-apples-must-see-tv?ref=spyglass.org). Jobs' meaning there remains vague, in no small part because all these years later and Apple still hasn't really cracked much of anything with regard to television. Sure, the set-top box has continued to evolve, but it's still largely the same product, just smaller and faster, as it was when Jobs introduced it. And yes, Apple is full-on making content now (both television and film), but that, along with the broader streaming service, now also [confusingly named 'Apple TV'](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/), isn't a massive business for Apple, more just a part of the Services stool, as it were. Jobs and Apple undoubtedly [wanted to unify](https://500ish.com/apple-seems-set-to-unveil-cable-tv-852d210aa719?ref=spyglass.org) [all television content](https://500ish.com/backing-into-television-eb7308de9bc6?ref=spyglass.org) around a product they offered, just as they did with music around the iPod, but they failed time and time again to make [the all-important iTunes for the market](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/). That's not their fault as much as it's the other major players – [most notably, Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-apple-tv/) – [not wanting to play ball](https://mgs.blog/netflix-the-great-streaming-ui-blocker-5ea019048c26?ref=spyglass.org). And you can sort of understand why! Still, this sucks for consumers. Not only because of [the comical number of streaming services](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) you must subscribe to, manage, and [search between separately](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/) now, but also because this probably ensured Apple would not enter the actual television set space. Apple TV remained a set-top box, a hobby. Now it's certainly possible that Apple would have [never](https://mgs.blog/amazon-finally-cracked-it-4029ad3f249d?ref=spyglass.org) entered the TV set space given those aforementioned margins. Having great margins has long been a north star of Apple, and certainly in the Tim Cook era. Was he really going to move away from 40%+ margin products to television sets that are closer to 2% margins? Um, no. But Apple also would have undoubtedly [done it differently](https://spyglass.org/apple-touch-television/). Yes, charging more, but also focusing on quality, not that race to the bottom. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-at-11.26.26---AM-1.png) Still there's a long way between 2% and 40%. But even if Apple could figure out a way to do a premium television set with say 15% - 20% margins, it still might be worth it for other reasons. Again, the technology remains the key focal point of the home. And as Apple starts to make their first full-on push into that home with a [rumored new 'HomePad' device](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) and perhaps security cameras and other peripherals, [you could certainly make a case here](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/). Of course, I've been making such a case for a long time, noting years ago that [it was a mistake for Apple to cancel the AirPort product](https://500ish.com/errorport-a5c0e8783d04?ref=spyglass.org) which was many people's hub for internet in their home and could have evolved into more. And these days you could [make a case that](https://500ish.com/hobby-no-more-9856ab5f3c90?ref=spyglass.org) the iPad – and soon, perhaps the 'HomePad' – is sort of Apple's version of a television set, albeit a small one! For a big one, [there's the Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/)! That device is clearly best suited as an entertainment consumption device right now, as their first foray into sports content [makes clear](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/), but it's also pretty much the opposite of a central piece of convening technology in the home. Maybe Apple finds a path to make it more social eventually, but we're years away from that. Instead, we live in a world where everyone convenes around the television in their living room and that television, again, largely sucks. Sure, the actual technology powering the thing may be impressive – still a focal point of CES every year, obviously – but the *experience* *gets worse* every year. And it's because the aforementioned television set players want to turn their crappy margin hardware businesses into better margin services businesses. Or because they've outsourced the software to the likes of Google and/or Amazon, both of which are trying to use the television sets to grow their own services (including ads) businesses. The result is just awful. I have an LG TV, a nice, big OLED one. It wasn't cheap, but the experience of using it feels cheap. Again, every time I turn it on, I get a massive pop-up asking me to update some software that I neither want nor need. This shows up even though I mainly control the TV through my Apple TV box and I really just want the LG TV to be a dumb screen. Just something to display pixels. But it fights against that, for the mentioned reasons. And my last few TVs have been from LG because it runs webOS – yes, the old Palm mobile operating system lives on in LG TVs! – which seemed better than what Samsung had to offer. Recently, an old Samsung TV we had in a secondary room broke and I opted to try a TV running Amazon's [Fire OS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire%5FOS?ref=spyglass.org). It's somehow even worse than what runs on Samsung TVs. It's so comically slow that I had to get another Apple TV box to bypass their software and turn it into a dumb screen. I also recently bought a [new Google TV set top box](https://spyglass.org/chromecast-is-dead-and-loving-it/) – not to be confused with the half dozen other products that have been called "Google TV" over the years – to try it out, and it's a bit better, but still way too promotional for my tastes. [And don't even get me started on Roku](https://spyglass.org/roku-adds-ads/)... At least [that Telly ad-focused TV set thing](https://500ish.com/the-advertising-first-television-a8d1929d99ea?ref=spyglass.org) is upfront about shoving ads in your face! The situation just sucks. And it's getting worse.[1](#one) Given all the talk about tariffs and a return to homegrown American technology, you'd think this would be a focal point for the US government. We care so much about where the chips are made, but clearly less so about the technology central in everyone's living room, it seems. Honestly, I don't really care about American-made TV sets, I just care about the experience. And I would really only trust one company, which happens to be American, to care about that as well... So come on Apple. I know the margins are brutal, but you're already making monitors that are insanely expensive versus the rest of the market. And those other monitors don't even have a bad user experience like the current television sets in market do. [There's a window here to do something](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/), in particular if you truly want to own the home. An Apple television set could be the main hub not just in the living room, but for all the technology in all the rooms in the home. And it could be the ultimate showcase for Services. And may even make it possible to one day unify the experience of all content. Otherwise my next TV may have to be a Samsung set since Sony is now gone. Yuck. 👇 ****Earlier, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Will OpenAI Ads Click with Users?And will users click on them?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-911.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_n3rihyn3rihyn3ri.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/) [AI’s Perception ProblemsA chat about AI needing their Steve Jobs figure, AI’s chaotic companies, and some other predictions for 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-912.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--10_38_21-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/) [Netflix’s Hard 45With Ted Sarandos’ 45-day theatrical commit for movies, he’s aiming to win the box office, Hollywood, and the Warner Bros deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-913.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--03_36_53-PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) --- 1 Don't even get me started on the remote controls included with television sets. [I've been writing on this topic for well over a decade...](https://500ish.com/explain-a-television-remote-control-to-me-like-im-five-2994c1f148b8?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) ### Hollywood Cuts Off Its Future to Spite Its Present URL: https://spyglass.org/the-rip-of-hollywood/ Last updated: 2026-04-02T06:58:31.000Z This week was supposed to be the deadline for Warner Bros Discovery shareholders to tender their shares in support of Paramount Skydance's (hostile) bid for the company. Paramount clearly doesn't feel great about the proposal (after [losing a fast-track bid](https://deadline.com/2026/01/judge-denies-paramount-motion-warner-bros-merger-1236683983/?ref=spyglass.org) to get more information on [Netflix's offer for Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/)) so they're likely pushing out the date (again). At the same time, Netflix reports their Q4 earnings tomorrow and alongside that, they could formally switch their bid to be [an all-cash offer](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/14/netflix-warner-bros-discovery-deal-all-cash.html?ref=spyglass.org), more closely matching Paramount's structure. The fight continues... But in some ways, the fight is almost aside from the larger point. That is, Hollywood hates *both* of these deals. Because they don't want to see one of their iconic studios acquired. That is a foolish stance that would ultimately hasten the decline of Warner Bros and eventually lead to its demise. Those are the real stakes here. Which everyone outside of Hollywood seems to realize, and yet few inside of Hollywood do. [I've made this point a number of times](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [around this deal](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/), but I felt the need to more clearly spell it out. Because every day brings a new headline or interview which makes it clear that Hollywood is living in a dream world. Regardless of who Warner Bros ultimately moves forward with, they're hoping for regulators to step in to block the deal. Again, it's silly. No, it's stupid. If no deal happens and Warner Bros Discovery moves forward with splitting off their cable assets later this year, it will leave the studio extremely vulnerable. While the newly spun-out Discovery assets would assume a lot of the debt that lingers from the previous deals the company made – notably the tie-up with Discovery itself, unburdening previous parent AT&T – it would also take about half of the profit that the currently combined company makes. Warner Bros, the studio, is coming off a banner year. If next year is less "banner", there could be some real problems there... But even if the studio and HBO Max keep performing, this remains a relatively small company that's going to have vultures circling to swoop in. And, in fact, an acquisition was the entire point of the spin-out. CEO David Zaslav wanted to make Warner Bros a more attractive target to deep-pocketed buyers. Knowing that, Paramount, also a relatively small company – [far smaller than WBD, actually](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) – [pre-empted the spin-out](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/). It was simply the only way they could compete for the company. But they undoubtedly [didn't anticipate](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) this level of interest from Netflix. Or that WBD would *agree* to a deal for just the studio ahead of the spin-out. Anyway, the point is that *someone* is going to be buying Warner Bros. This was always the plan, and killing these deals just removes two would-be suitors – suitors who, by the way, actually have interest in making movies (and television). Without these two around the table, the remaining would-be acquirers, are either [going to be Big Tech](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) or private equity. Is that really what Hollywood is hoping for here? A private equity deal that reeks of "synergies" and cost-cutting galore, to set the studio up to likely flip again down the road? A real Hollywood ending. Of course not. But they're living in this fictional land where they think Warner Bros will continue as a stand-alone entity. That's not reality. That's not happening. So to beat the dead horse: if these deals don't happen, someone else buys Warner Bros. And it will likely be a buyer far less interested in the future of Hollywood... *But, but, but* Hollywood will retort: Netflix is killing us! Are they? When I look at Netflix, [I see a company](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) that is always one step ahead of inevitable curves in media creation and consumption. Hollywood won't like that framing because filmmaking is an art form. I don't disagree, but it's also a business. That's really what this is all about. And it is a business that is always morphing. And it is an industry that is always filled with existential dread about those changes. What Hollywood should be worried about is finding the right type of buyer for one of their major movie studios. And it sure feels like Netflix checks just about all the boxes to be the best possible buyer here. They're big, popular, profitable, and innovative. But this last bit scares Hollywood because again, they're worried that Netflix will turn all movies into streaming content. The dreaded 'C' word. That's why Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos is on his charm offensive, [making increasingly declarative statements](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) that this will not happen. That they're committed to making Warner Bros work as-is – [including with theatrical releases](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/). No one in Hollywood believes him, and that's almost reasonable given [his previous statements](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) and Netflix's previous stances. But as I've predicted well before this deal, [Netflix was always going to change their tune there](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). Again, they're both smart and innovative. This isn't a $400B media company – *twice the market cap of Disney, by the way* – on their way to [the first $1T media company](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/), because they don't know what they're doing. You cannot say the same of every other entity that has bought a movie studio. And that's the thing, this is not some new existential threat for Hollywood. The studios started consolidating or getting scooped up almost a century ago. [To the point where](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) only Disney remains a stand-alone entity – and that's largely because they've created (or bought) other businesses to augment (and support) the studio. Many of the studios have changed hands, usually amongst conglomerates, multiple times. With that in mind, it's rather insane that Hollywood opposes a deal here. Is Netflix (or Paramount, for that matter) going to continue doing things exactly as Warner Bros has in the past? Undoubtedly not, but other parents of Warner Bros in the past have changed strategies multiple times as well. With Netflix, there's a least a shot at some innovative [new approaches and strategies](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/). This past weekend, I watched *The Rip*, the new Matt Damon/Ben Affleck movie that debuted on Netflix. Yes, on the streaming service, not in a movie theater. But that was undoubtedly the right call because the movie undoubtedly would not have been a huge hit at the box office. It may have done okay on the back of its stars, but it was never going to be a blockbuster. It's just not the type of movie that fits that mould these days. Hollywood hates that too, but again, it's reality. And it has [long been the reality](https://500ish.com/michael-clayton-in-the-age-of-netflix-b4857e003997?ref=spyglass.org) of [the theatrical business](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/). It's a business mostly driven by the big-budget [giant tentpole movies](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) and augmented by some breakout hits with far more modest budgets. *The Rip* is neither. With a budget reported to be around $100M, it would need to make around $200M at the box office just to break even (after the theaters take their cut). That was not going to happen. But on Netflix, a movie like this can be a hit. It's a movie with known stars that the service can serve up to their members who are most likely interested in such fare. And, in fact, for the first time, [Netflix is allowing a movie to be aligned with becoming a hit, financially](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/business/media/netflix-the-rip-ben-affleck-matt-damon.html?ref=spyglass.org). Damon's and Affleck's Artists Equity production company got Netflix to agree to pay a bonus to everyone working on the movie if it hits for the service.1 We don't know those exact metrics and terms, but it's a big deal for Netflix as historically, they've not done any sort of "backend" deal – in part because those have historically been based around box office results, which again, Netflix hasn't historically had in any meaningful way. That probably changes with the Warner Bros deal, but again, even this deal is slightly changing the stakes and structure. And that should lead to more movies on Netflix taking chances – [and hopefully leads to better content](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/).[2](#two) Which, yes, is subjective, but has [long been](https://500ish.com/the-great-okay-5acf7f61bf9a?ref=spyglass.org) hung around Netflix's neck with their films in particular. Now, the counter to the above would be [the other bit of news](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/matt-damon-netflix-plots-reiterated-distracted-viewers-1236477116/?ref=spyglass.org) coming out of Damon/Affleck with regard to Netflix: that the studio pushed them to make structural changes to *The Rip* that would result in people sticking around early (i.e. not burying the big action in the second and third acts), but also to keep reiterating the plot in dialogue for the viewers who may be watching while on their phones. I'll pause while Hollywood collectively pukes in their popcorn here. I tend to think the emphasis should be on making movies (or shows) that are gripping enough to rip people off of their phones – a point which Affleck makes as well in [their interview with Joe Rogan](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVEZBy1uAk8&ref=spyglass.org), where the above idea is discussed.[3](#three) But this is also about the current reality: a lot of people who watched *The Rip* this weekend did so while on their phones. Netflix is simply aiming to play the game on the field, as it were... Anyway, I'm too in the weeds now. The point is that Netflix is the one company best poised to succeed in the future of Hollywood. At least right now. And the fact that they're trying to buy one of the major studios should be viewed as a *very good thing* for the industry, not a bad thing, let alone *the end of the world*. Because the alternative is probably private equity buying the studio if one of these deals doesn't happen. Good luck with that, Hollywood. ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1056.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-909.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [Netflix’s Hard 45With Ted Sarandos’ 45-day theatrical commit for movies, he’s aiming to win the box office, Hollywood, and the Warner Bros deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-908.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--03_36_53-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/) [YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to NetflixWith YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-910.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--09_15_17-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-907.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-906.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-11.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) --- 1 Coincidentally, [one of the founding partners](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-warner-netflix-ellison-redbird-cardinale-1f127e89?ref=spyglass.org) at Artists Equity is [RedBird Capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RedBird%5FCapital%5FPartners?ref=spyglass.org) – the PE firm run by Gerry Cardinale, which is also the key partner on Paramount Skydance's bid for Warner Bros Discovery... [↩](#) 2 I thought *The Rip* was decent. A bit better than the [typical bland "okay" movies on Netflix](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/), but still not great. In particular, there are some real plot problems in the third act. To me, it would not have been worth the the time and money to go see it in theater, but it was a solid Netflix watch! [↩](#) 3 Alongside [Affleck's interesting points and thoughts about AI](https://spyglass.org/ben-affleck-on-ai/)! [↩](#) ### My Boy's Wicked Smart on AI URL: https://spyglass.org/ben-affleck-on-ai/ Last updated: 2026-03-30T09:57:31.000Z Wait a minute. You mean to tell me that Chuckie Sullivan might be Will Hunting when it comes to AI? I mean, can we just dive a bit into Ben Affleck's comments [on *The Joe Rogan Experience*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2OsvVJC0s&ref=spyglass.org) – I know, *I know*! – last week? Rogan tees up the question around films potentially being written by AI – "it gets weird, right?" To which Matt Damon defers to Affleck as "an area of expertise for him." Okay, I'm intrigued, let's see what you got, Ben! After a comparison to electricity – not the worst analogy, one that [others have used in talking points](https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/andrew-ng-why-ai-new-electricity?ref=spyglass.org) before,[1](#one) though not particularly useful here, we get to the goods: > What I see is if, for example, you try to get ChatGPT or Claude or Gemini to write you something, it's really shitty. And it's shitty because by its nature it goes to the mean, to the average. It's not reliable. I mean, I just can't even stand to see what it writes. Rattling off the three key AI products at the moment? [Check out the big brain](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BTIm0D2A5o8?ref=spyglass.org) on Ben! The point about writing to the "mean" is fine. It's too dismissive of the interesting things such tools do produce, but for the most part, as a writer, I don't disagree. The point about being "not reliable" – presumably he's referring to hallucinations here – seems less relevant to writing a movie script, but we'll allow it. > It's a useful tool if you're a writer and you're going, "What's the—I'm trying to set something up where somebody sends someone a letter but it's delayed two days..." and it can give you some examples of that. I actually don't think it's very likely that it's going to be able to write anything meaningful, and in particular that it's going to be making movies from whole cloth. Like Tilly Norwood. That's bullshit—I don't think that's going to happen. Yes, it's a tool that can be useful. Agreed. I disagree about being unable to write "anything meaningful" but that's obviously subjective. But I do agree with his bigger notion about *not* being able to make "movies from whole cloth". I think technically it will happen – obviously – but [I highly doubt](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) they'll be things people want to watch beyond the novelty value. Also, I appreciate the passion. > I think it turns out the technology is not progressing in exactly the same way they presented it. Really what it is going to be is a tool. Just like visual effects. And yeah, it needs to have language around it. You need to protect your name and likeness. You can do that. You can watermark it. Those laws already exist. I can't sell your fucking picture for money—I can't. You can sue me. Period. I might have the ability to draw you, to make you in a very realistic way, but that's already against the law. Mostly agree. Again, I think it's going to be one tool in the tool belt of future filmmakers, and I wish more would [recognize this](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) rather than [being fearful](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) of it outright. Overall, Affleck seemingly has the right framework here, though he's brushing aside the idea that some people might *want* to leverage AI to use their likeness. Maybe not the Ben Afflecks and Matt Damons – [or Matthew McConaugheys](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/matthew-mcconaughey-trademarks-himself-to-fight-ai-misuse-8ffe76a9?gaa%5Fat=eafs&gaa%5Fn=AWEtsqfAHjLBKxM2BQff0pLBt7B%5F3M0%5FYCCoGoAGr9DuWEhu9WOIH8AR2VZBs4kioBA%3D&gaa%5Fts=696df31a&gaa%5Fsig=-SLQyDcVjxZZhXYXk3DzrFNVNZjB0MkTwGdqbhC6kHjL9zvXpKwPwFsQ3eVLmOQ0qERI%5FDKlB5uXk6wa268b%5FQ%3D%3D&ref=spyglass.org) – of the world, but those who are trying to breakthrough and/or [want to get paid](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/). This will eventually includes stars as well, just as has become the norm with television commercials – which used to be relegated to markets in Asia. There will be a sort of [NIL marketplace](https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2021/7/9/name-image-likeness.aspx?ref=spyglass.org) for Hollywood. > And the unions—I think the guilds are going to manage this. It's like, "Okay, look, if this is a tool that actually helps us—for example, we don't have to go to the North Pole, right? We can shoot the scene here in our parkas and then make it appear very realistically as if we're in the North Pole. Save us a lot of money, a lot of time. We're going to focus on the performances and not be freezing our asses out there and running back inside." That's useful. > > Just like Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn used to be driving their car and there's wind blowing a painting behind them and it looked goofy. Now people use a lot of computer-generated stuff. Some of it is going to replace just that—instead of 500 guys in Singapore making $2 an hour to render all the graphics for a superhero movie, they're going to be able to do that a lot easier. Yes, [that is useful and pragmatic](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/). Not just to save money – though that's obviously a huge part of it – but also to save *time* and perhaps do things with film that just aren't feasible. How much the unions have to do with that... we'll see. But again, I appreciate this rational stance in a time of irrational stances! > There's already laws and guild guidelines around how many union extras you have to use. But also, we've been tiling extras. There weren't a million orcs in Middle Earth, you know what I mean? In *Invictus*, there weren't all those people in the stadium. That's something we've been doing. Yep. Good. Appeal to the nerds. Appeal to Matt Damon. Check. Check. > It kind of feels to me like the thing we were talking about earlier where there's a lot more fear because we have this sense of existential dread—it's going to wipe everything out. > > But that actually runs counter, in my view, to what history seems to show, which is that a) adoption is slow. It's incremental... Yes. Very good. Displacement of jobs will (unfortunately) happen, but [it's not going to happen overnight](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) and it's not going to happen across the board in Hollywood. And the new technology will ultimately lead to new jobs that currently don't exist. As Affleck notes, this is the same story as with all technological revolutions throughout history. > I think a lot of that rhetoric comes from people who are trying to justify valuations around companies where they go, "We're going to change everything in two years. There's going to be no more work." > > Well, the reason they're saying that is because they need to ascribe a valuation for investment that can warrant the capex spend they're going to make on these data centers, with the argument that, "Oh, as soon as we do the next model, it's going to scale up, it's going to be three times as good." "CapEx"? Be still [my heart](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/)! Data center spend? This is an actor, right? The point is a bit too dismissive/flippant about what the tech companies are trying to do. This isn't all some [Ponzi scheme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi%5Fscheme?ref=spyglass.org) – though some of it undoubtedly is! – to try to trick people (mainly investors given what Affleck is referring to here), it's insanely fast-moving (and growing) technology, and everyone is trying to put themselves in the position to "win". From the perspective of most of these companies, at least given our current moment in time, [it's rational](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/). Unprecedented, but still rational. > Except that actually ChatGPT-5 is about 25 percent better than ChatGPT-4 and costs about four times as much in electricity and data. So that's plateauing. The early AI—the line went up very steeply and it's now sort of leveling off. I think it's because, yes, it'll get better, but it's going to be really expensive to get better. > > And a lot of people were like, "Fuck this, we want ChatGPT-4." Because it turned out the vast majority of people who use AI are using it as companion bots to chat with at night and stuff. There's no work, there's no productivity, there's no value to it. I would also argue there's also not a lot of social value to getting people to focus on an AI friend who's telling you that you're great and listening to everything you say and being sycophantic. But that's sort of a side issue. Technically, it's 'GPT-5' and 'GPT-4', which are *models* running in ChatGPT, the *service*, but we'll let it stand. I'm more impressed he knew the version numbers and [the high-level complaints OpenAI faced](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) in switching between those two models. As for "the vast majority of people" using AI as companions, this feels a bit too headline-y. As does the "no productivity" and "no value" stuff. It's too dismissive. But he is generally correct in the notion of more compute ([and more money](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/)) needed to keep scaling as [the low-hanging returns](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-wall/) taper off. > For this particular purpose, the way I see the technology and what it's good at and what it's not—it's going to be good at filling in all the places that are expensive and burdensome and make it harder to do things. And it's always going to rely fundamentally on the human artistic aspects of it. Okay, good, we're back on track. [Agreed](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). At this point, Joe Rogan jumps in: > Well, I think the more it becomes ubiquitous, the more people are going to appreciate real things that are made by real people. Holy shit, I fully agree with Joe Rogan on something! [I've written about exactly this notion](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) a number of times now. He talks about tables and Claire Danes, okay sure, but yes! In a way, we're going to shift from caring more about the output, to [caring more about the *input*](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). The *time* someone – a human – put into doing something. **One more thing:** as some folks have [pointed out](https://www.threads.com/@matthewbuchanan/post/DTqkUpAk3xa?ref=spyglass.org) in [replies](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2012899473660231743?ref=spyglass.org) [on](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DTp-ZQPCIjR?ref=spyglass.org) social media, [this isn't the first time](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypURoMU3P3U&ref=spyglass.org) Affleck has waxed poetic on this topic. I like "craftsman is knowing how to work, art is knowing when to stop." – a variation of [a quote by Toni Morrison](https://www.azquotes.com/quote/1149254?ref=spyglass.org) ([and](https://proofbranding.com/the-art-of-knowing-when-to-stop/?ref=spyglass.org) [others](https://www.azquotes.com/quote/599353?ref=art-of-writing)). But I also like his immediate and intimate knowledge of *Succession*! Also, [how about 20+ years ago](https://www.threads.com/@rhettweller/post/DTqgSjCEeHx?xmt=AQF0bKn6wuqiU9EO0gXwPwQ3nbavIJYu3TiVhTu81aE0Lw&ref=spyglass.org) when [he laid out](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpSppv11x%5FI&ref=spyglass.org) what Spotify and Netflix would become... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-903.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_-14.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) [Hollywood vs. AI: The MovieMy god, the open letter is full of stars -- especially Cate Blanchett![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-904.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-1-11.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) [Terminating the AI vs. Hollywood TropesJames Cameron has some interesting – and some refreshing – and some controversial – thoughts about AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-902.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_terminator_holding_a_bouquet_of_flowers_--ar_21_--pro_0b735ec9-f3bf-431c-b5bc-fca76515473a_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) [The “AI-Generated Hit Movie” Horror StoryAI-generated movies are coming. But AI-generated “hit movies”?…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-905.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-10--2026--03_29_55-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/) [AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of WritingAnd that’s the most important part…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-901.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) --- 1 Of course that's your contention, you're a first year AI student. You just got finished listening to [Andrew Ng's lecture on why "AI is the new electricty"](https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/andrew-ng-why-ai-new-electricity?ref=spyglass.org)... I kid, I kid, but *come on*, [this is a scene in a movie you wrote – a scene you're in!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-zvZweAR4c&ref=spyglass.org) You know, the very scene from where my title comes from... [↩](#) ### Will OpenAI Ads Click with Users? URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-ads-in-chatgpt/ Last updated: 2026-03-23T22:40:07.000Z The ads are coming! The ads are coming! Look, everything in [OpenAI's blog post](https://openai.com/index/our-approach-to-advertising-and-expanding-access/?ref=spyglass.org) announcing that advertising is coming to ChatGPT seems reasonable. Fidji Simo smartly frames it as wanting to ensure they can bring their AI to more people, but at the same time, as everyone is well aware by now, it costs *a lot* of money to do that. Charging for more/better/faster access has worked well to date for the company, but that model will never be able to scale the way 'free' and/or 'cheap' can. It's a story as old as time – or at least, as old as advertising. Sam Altman may have said that he hoped to avoid this fate – ["a last resort"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVRHTWWEIz4&ref=spyglass.org) – but it was always inevitable. You either die as an ad-free service or you live long enough to become an ad vessel.[1](#one) That's a bit unfair. But it's directionally true. And it's exactly why you hire someone like [Simo to be the CEO](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) [reporting to the CEO](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/). She has all the experience to make this work for OpenAI, not only thanks to her Meta days, but her Instacart days as well. She has been able to help get advertising working across several different types of businesses (and I think Instagram should be considered slightly different from Facebook itself – we'll get to that). So, will this work for OpenAI? I mean, the short answer is that *it has to*. Given the costs involved and the competition keeping pricing in check, this will be the only way to scale to billions without breaking the bank – [which still *might* break](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/), even with ads, by the way. The problem is that OpenAI clearly doesn't yet know *how* it will work. Because no one does. It's a new product and new type of experience – and my guess would be that to truly work, it will require a new type of advertising. Google is the Google you know today because they figured this out. Meta is Meta because Facebook – and again, later Instagram – figured this out. Conventional wisdom right now would suggest that the right ad model is going to be closer to that of Google because much like Search, what you type into a text box is key. And much like with Google Search, such text often indicates an *intent* of some type. But whereas Google aimed to match this intent with a *website* – [well, at first, at least](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/) – ChatGPT tries to get you right to an *answer*. This is a problem for the Google-style of advertising because that was predicated around the notion of a *click*. Famously, because it's trying to get you the information directly rather than linking to a site that has the information, [there are far fewer clicks on ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/). But Google's model was even better than that. Because a user was trained to know they'd be getting those famous "10 blue links" back as a result, they were also trained to quickly scan them. Sure, Google would try to surface the one it found most relevant to your query first, but with millions then billions of web pages and an infinite pool of queries, it wasn't reasonable to think that the top link would always be the correct one. That naturally let Google "take over" one of those link slots for an ad unit, knowing the "impression" would be there. Even better, they could move such a unit to the *top* of the results without too much damage done to the product. Is the ad not what you were looking for? Then just don't click. *But even better still*, for certain types of queries, the ad often *was* what you were looking for, because the real genius and killer feature of the model was getting basically all businesses to advertise against the keyword queries related to their businesses – and to those of their rivals! As a result, when I search for "iPhone" the top result is often an Apple ad that Google gets paid to display. Because if not, Samsung would try to control that top slot and may divert a customer with clear smartphone interest to their Galaxy lineup. Everyone knows all of this, of course, but it's worth spelling out just how brilliant this is. It's not an exaggeration to say that it may be the best business model in history. But it's also one that breaks down quickly without those clicks. Now, ChatGPT is clearly making product tweaks to lead to more clicks. Conversations around shopping are the most clear example of this. Because at the end of the day, you can talk all you want about buying something, but if you actually want to buy it, you're going to have to click *somewhere* to go do that – even if it's within ChatGPT itself (which is [what they're working on](https://openai.com/index/buy-it-in-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org), obviously).[2](#two) Anyway, anything with some sort of purchase intent is clearly going to get more click-inducing UI tweaks. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it will also help the advertising push. Yet it still feels like that won't be the big breakthrough here. And certainly it will never convert as Google Search ads have. I'm more intrigued by OpenAI's notion that you might want to chat with an ad. On the surface, this sounds gross, but it's perhaps a clever way to integrate ads more natively into the product. Want to know more about the iPhone's specs versus that Galaxy device? Maybe Apple pays to sponsor ChatGPT's answer (without any oversight of the response aside from insuring it's accurate?) with a link to buy. And maybe Samsung pays too for their own link, just in case you deem that the better path. Travel. Tickets. Etc. The categories will undoubtedly be the same, but the key will be not destroying user trust in the chat by letting advertisers turn said chat into a giant advertisement. ChatGPT is saying all the right things now, but... such things have a way of morphing over time. Bending towards the arc of more monetization... But all of the above is too obvious. The more interesting ads may be simply about information, the native content of ChatGPT. Can they figure out a way to get advertisers to pay to sponsor relevant information – again, not spammy/pitchy – in response to "regular" chats? Is there some sort of new "cost-per-information" model?[3](#three) Or if a user engages with it, "cost-per-interaction"? There obviously needs to be some sort of signal to showcase that it was useful to a user and again, it may not be a click. Otherwise, we're just back in the less interesting, and probably less useful, not to mention less lucrative, impression game. Speaking of, Meta has historically played that game better because their breakthrough, the feed, is naturally more visual in nature. And the natural interaction there, the scroll, allows for easy ad insertion without annoying the user too much – if they don't like an ad, they just keep scrolling. But Meta, even more so than Google, at least in the early days, was able to leverage key knowledge about you thanks to their social graph. So while they didn't have the same search intent Google did, they had better targeting capabilities. That's interesting as it relates to OpenAI because they should have sort of a hybrid of these two worlds and models (and, to be clear, Google undoubtedly knows more about you these days than Meta thanks to Gmail and Photos and Maps and everything else). ChatGPT can glean intent from what you type, but also better target ads based on all the knowledge it has about you from previous conversations. Google had this too with previous searches, but you're typing so much more, about so many more things, into ChatGPT than you would into a Search box. Everyone – [even Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/2012253252771824074?ref=spyglass.org) – highlights how good Instagram ads are. It's obviously a combination of Meta's data and targeting mixed with the visual nature of that product. In a way, they're the new glossy magazine ads versus Google's ads which were more like old classified ads (on steroids, of course). Is there a way ChatGPT could leverage those types of ads too? Maybe if they continue to fully build out their image generation tools and can [make it a true hub people visit](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/). Meta is obviously trying to do this with their AI products. But it's [not clear](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) that will be a natural use behavior with AI content, we'll see. Sora and AI video would be the next holy grail after that, of course. If OpenAI can break into the video advertising game – aka, commercials – well, that's another massive business opportunity. It's one YouTube is still in the process of siphoning away from TV, with TikTok and yes, Instagram pushing hard as well with some success. And then there's Netflix, Amazon, and everyone in streaming making their moves too. But we're getting way ahead of ourselves here. First, OpenAI needs to find the right chat-based model for ads inside of ChatGPT. Again, it may be more similar to the Google Search model, but it won't be exactly like it, and new metrics will probably be needed to work at scale. And there's a privacy angle, which OpenAI doesn't shy away from in their post, which makes it even more of a challenge. Many people are clearly already telling ChatGPT things that they don't necessarily want to be advertised against. And yet, an area like health is one of the most lucrative areas of advertising! So that's going to be a fine line to walk... For now, ChatGPT is probably wisely steering clear. At the end of the day, OpenAI undoubtedly still wants to believe that they can have a more hybrid model than either Google or Meta have, in that they have millions of paying users from the get-go as they start this ads push – those other companies did not, at least not for the core products: search and social feeds. Can they take their existing model and layer in advertising, versus it consuming the entire product, ensuring "[enshittification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification?ref=spyglass.org)"? In that way, it's almost more like Netflix. But again, the key will be finding the right mix of where/when to serve ads and what type of ads to serve. Oh, that's all? The company is confident enough to think that the business will [bring in "low billions" this year](https://www.ft.com/content/ec1656cd-e07b-48ed-92a8-26c7fe517899?utm%5Fsf%5Fpost%5Fref=652820930&utm%5Fsf%5Fcserv%5Fref=10977192&ref=spyglass.org), but can they do that without ruining the product experience? I think it's going to take thinking differently about ads. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/OAI_Ad_Blog_Inline-AdMock1_16x9.webp) --- 1 [Just ask Apple.](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/) [↩](#) 2 Or, I guess, you could have *an AI agent* go do this for you, which every AI player is also rushing to enable. But this is more complicated, with major players like Amazon quickly moving to block such bots. Anyway, that's a different topic. Undoubtedly related, but still also in the future... [↩](#) 3 And does this eventually complement [a way to pay publishers/content producers for such information](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) that is surfaced by ChatGPT? The [one-off data deals](https://spyglass.org/nyt-amazon-ai-deal/) also aren't scalable. [↩](#) ### Netflix's Hard 45 URL: https://spyglass.org/ted-sarandos-triples-down/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T11:36:10.000Z [ Ted Sarandos Says Critics Just Misunderstand Netflix The company’s co-chief executive sat down for an extensive interview for the first time since announcing plans to buy Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV business. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) The New York Times Nicole Sperling ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2026/01/12/multimedia/SARANDOS-1-01-jkqz/SARANDOS-1-01-jkqz-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/business/media/ted-sarandos-netflix.html?ref=spyglass.org) Ted Sarandos is done fucking around. Well, nearly. With the [endless swirl](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/183695109/warner-bros-discoverys-8th-rejection-of-paramount?ref=spyglass.org) around the fight [for Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/), he's been making the rounds trying to make the case for why Netflix should be the winner. [Well, they already *are* technically the winner](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/), so it's really why they should *remain* the winner – both [against Paramount](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) and against any regulatory push-back. And, deal terms aside – this interview doesn't really hit on those – this is probably his best pitch yet. But I still might suggest altering his approach slightly. Right off the bat, there's a problem: > I think it was a lot of loud voices, but not necessarily a lot of them. I think a lot of it was folks who questioned, rightfully so, our intent with theatrical because we hadn’t said anything about it. A lot of it was the emotions around that more than anything else. Yes, that is *four* "a lots" in three short sentences. That's a lot of "a lots". Also, I'm not sure what to make of the brain twister how there can be both "a lot of loud voices" but also "not necessarily a lot of them". Regardless, he's both too defensive and deflecting too much here. He sort of addresses it later on when asked more directly, but Netflix – [and *he* in particular](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) – *has* talked about the movie theater business, quite **a lot**. He can argue semantics (as he does in a later question), but there's far too much smoke over the years for there to be no fire here. He should just own it and say something like: **"Look, I've said some things and we've said some things in the past that were just wrong with regard to theatrical. It was ignorance on our end. We were too focused on our great and growing business to worry about that business, which we weren't in, too much. But when we got a chance to look at Warner's theatrical business, it was actually pretty great. And we think we can make it even better."* He does mention the idea of seeing Warner's actual theatrical numbers changing his mind later on, and it's a great, compelling answer. People are allowed to change their minds – and it's especially good and reassuring if they do so when presented with new facts. That's the sign of a good leader, so he should tie that into the broader question about his past statements on the matter, not be defensive about such statements. I do love that he doesn't shy away from talking about Paramount directly: > If you take a beat and think about who’s been building and who’s been collapsing, it’s the best news possible. When we buy the studio, we’ll be releasing more movies together than we were separately. Our forecast is to grow the content spend of the combined companies several years out. So it’s really good news for the town that we’re going to continue to grow the business. > > On the Paramount side, between the $3 billion that [they’ve already cut](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/business/media/paramount-layoffs-skydance.html?ref=spyglass.org) and [the $6 billion they’re proposing,](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/business/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-netflix.html?ref=spyglass.org) those are real jobs. That’s cutting back on production. That endless search for profit by cutting people, jobs and making fewer movies — that’s not our intention at all. We need all those movies. We need all those TV shows. This is probably Netflix's single greatest strength, even more so than the money they're offering, in their pitch – especially to outsiders. Essentially: "We're not going to cut jobs, Skydance is. How do I know that? Look at what they've done with Paramount, mere months ago." His second best argument? > I honestly think there would have been reactions like that from anyone who was going to do the deal. What people would like to see is no deal. But that’s not possible. There are two outcomes of this deal, and we have a signed deal done. This isn't Netflix vs. Paramount – I mean, it is – but the *bigger* battle is this deal vs. reality. If no one does this deal, Warner Bros is going to die. Not today, not tomorrow, but eventually, slowly. It has been decades since the major movie studios could stand on their own as businesses, which is why all but Disney is owned by larger entities (and even Disney is saved by their other businesses, like theme parks and cruise ships, and for a time, cable). A stand-alone Warner Bros would not last long, and WBD is going to split off the cable division which is still bringing in money so... There needs to be some deal done here. Hollywood seems to think Netflix is the worst option, but, plot twist: [they might actually be the *best* option](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). By far. After two great answers as to why they decided to do this deal – again, essentially admitting they were wrong in some of their assumptions and realizing that actually their business could augment and accelerate Warner's in ways – we get another small setback. When Sperling (rightfully) pushes back, noting that people are still skeptical of [Netflix's actual commitment to movie theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) here, Sarandos gets weak again: > I understand that folks are emotional about it because they love it and they don’t want it to go away. And they think that we’ve been doing things to make it go away. We haven’t. Again, I wouldn't be defensive there, it seems disingenuous. I would say something more along the lines of: "**And they think that we’ve been doing things to make it go away. It's true that our model to date has been different, but that doesn't mean it always has to be. That was just the model we found that worked for us. It wasn't about hurting movie theaters, it was about serving our customers in the convenience of their homes.*" But I'm also slightly taking this bit out of context, because his very next line is meant to be the knockout punch: > When this deal closes, we will own a theatrical distribution engine that is phenomenal and produces billions of dollars of theatrical revenue that we don’t want to put at risk. We will run that business largely like it is today, with 45-day windows. I’m giving you a hard number. If we’re going to be in the theatrical business, and we are, we’re competitive people — we want to win. I want to win opening weekend. I want to win box office. There's obviously still a slight equivocation with "largely" but that seems fair, there are going to have to be some things Netflix tweaks – and there are obviously some things that Netflix *should* tweak – but one of them is not the 45-day theatrical commitment for Warner Bros movies,[1](#one) as he makes clear: "I'm giving you a hard number." That is his updated pitch directly to Hollywood and theater owners. It's less an olive branch and more just a full-on offering: Netflix will commit to a 45-day window. Not 17 days, as has been [reported by *Deadline*](https://deadline.com/2026/01/box-office-stranger-things-finale-1236660176/?ref=spyglass.org) and others. 45 days. Exactly what the theater owners are [asking for](https://ionanalytics.com/insights/mergermarket/the-industry-is-nervous-vue-ceo-raises-alarm-over-potential-warner-bros-netflix-tie-up/?ref=spyglass.org), obviously not coincidentally. Sperling pushes back again, noting Sarandos' "outmoded idea" quote from [not even a year ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/). This seems to annoy him, as he thinks everyone has read his quote the wrong way. Again, it's far too defensive. He just should have answered with some variation of the above quotes I've already laid out, or simply said he should have given a better answer at the time – [a tactic he's used in the past](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) – rather than arguing semantics. When pushed again on the notion that Netflix has led fewer people to leave their houses to go to theaters, Sarandos gives a good answer: > You have to give them something to watch. And I think we’ve got to take ownership of the idea that when people are excited to go out and see something, they go. You’ve seen it in some really nice upside at the box office this year. You’ve seen it in our “Stranger Things” finale experience. You saw it in our “KPop Demon Hunters” experience with people. You give people a reason to leave the house, they will gladly leave the house. This is good because yes, Netflix saw [unquestionable](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) [success](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) with those efforts. And it shows that they've been [evolving](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/) in their thinking, even ahead of this Warner Bros deal – yes, something which [someone – *cough, cough* – predicted](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)... Beyond the Warner Bros movies continuing in theaters, Netflix could actually *help* the industry by continuing to push [these](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) [outside-the-box](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) [experiences](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). > I would say one of the other myths about all this is that we thought of going to the theaters as competition for Netflix. It absolutely is not. When you go out to see a movie in the theater, if it was a good movie, when you come home, the first thing you want to do is watch another movie. If anything, I think it helps, you know, encourage the love of films. > > I did not get in this business to hurt the theatrical business. I got into this business to help consumers, to help movie fans. Yes, this is a good response. Less good: > **Do you think theater owners believe that?** > > I’ve got a great relationship with theater owners. Way, way, way, way too flippant. Come on, Ted. Keep your head in the game. This response gives Sperling the rope to put around his neck with the fact that the theater owners group [*just went to Congress*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/movie-theaters-netflix-warner-bros-1236466424/?ref=spyglass.org) to ask them to [stop this deal](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/incredible-ai-startup-valuations?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=Shocker%3A%20the%20movie%20theater%20lobby%20is%20against%20the%20deal.%20Any%20deal.%20No%20matter%20who%20wins.%20They%20prefer%20the%20slow%20death%20sequence.%20%5BTHR%5D). "Great relationship" alright! But Sarandos comes back strong: > Like I said, there’s only two outcomes of this deal. We’re going to be the buyer who keeps Warner Bros. running, releasing movies in theaters the way they always have. That keeps HBO completely intact. It keeps Warner Bros. television, producing television, and it creates jobs. At the end of the day, that may be the argument that actually wins over Hollywood and allows this deal to happen. It's still very much up in the air, and they're going to have to start moving the messaging heavily around [the *actual* competition being YouTube](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) – [which it is](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) – but they're nearly there on the talking points now. They just need Ted to fully lock in and stop being defensive. Funny is fine though: > **Will you relocate Netflix from its base in Hollywood to the Warner Bros. lot in Burbank? Will you be sitting at the famous desk used by Jack Warner, a founder of Warner Bros.?** > > I’ll probably have a space in both. Probably neither of them will be Jack Warner’s desk. But it is a beautiful desk. > > **Tell the truth, you’re doing all this for the desk?** > > It’s mostly for the desk. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-16--2026--03_36_53-PM.png) ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1059.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-893.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-894.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-898.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to NetflixWith YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-896.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--09_15_17-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-895.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [Ted Sarandos Screams “Fire!” at the Movie TheatersHe’s not wrong, but is he right?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-900.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_movie_theater_on_fire_--ar_169_--profile_6kai7g7_--v__197a8ee1-ee91-484a-bea8-e0557b960f70_1-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-899.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--16.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) --- 1 I might just point out there's wiggle room here in that he's committing to this window for *Warner Bros* movies and not necessarily *all* Netflix movies. But I think that's fair. If it works out well for Warner Bros movies, Netflix may want to use the same window for some of their own. And if not, well... [not everything has to be a Warner Bros movie](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/)! [↩](#) ### AI's Perception Problems URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-perception-problems/ Last updated: 2026-03-30T09:56:59.000Z I was back on the [Big Technology](https://www.bigtechnology.com/?ref=spyglass.org) [Podcast this week](https://pod.link/1522960417/episode/MzZjY2RmODItOTdlMy0xMWYwLWE4MzktYzNmMzkyYzhlMjcx?ref=spyglass.org) to discuss some recent posts with Alex Kantrowitz. First and foremost, [**AI's perception problem**](https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/), and if a pitchman like Steve Jobs is needed to sell this technology to the public. While Sam Altman has largely been serving in that role to date, it's clearly causing a lot of backlash, fairly or not. Could someone like Demis Hassabis or Panos Panay have better luck resonating with the masses? It feels like Jensen Huang is the closest, but NVIDIA is obviously playing in a different part of the stack and not selling directly to consumers (beyond their graphics cards, of course), at least not yet. And it's just harder to pitch what is essentially software on the user-facing side... Will this year's slate of Super Bowl commercials help? Probably not, but it will be interesting to see what angles OpenAI and undoubtedly Google and probably Anthropic take in their ads. Microsoft too? Amazon? Meta? It feels like pushing more towards science and discovery should help with messaging, but again, it's not as day-to-day consumer focused. Health certainly is, but there are myriad issues when it comes to marketing such features... Meanwhile, [**The Chaos Ladder**](https://spyglass.org/thought-machine-lab/) – where the various players in AI stand ranging from relatively stable to chaotic – saw [a lot of movement in 2025](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/). Meta and Apple [reset](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) their [teams](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/). Amazon [reset](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) their tech. Microsoft [reset their deal](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) with OpenAI. Google, after being [downtrodden from a stock-perspective](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) for the first half of last year, came roaring back to vault into the number two market cap position, joining the $4T club. Anthropic is sneakily stable – a fact which is now being highlighted due to the current chaos swirling around another OpenAI "[Constellation](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/)": [Thinking Machines Lab](https://spyglass.org/thought-machine-lab/). With Big Tech at least, it feels like things are starting to stabilize a bit more as we start 2026\. But does [OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) and Anthropic [going for IPOs](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) change that? What about Elon [doing Elon things](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/)? Does any larger player that's not a part of Big Tech leverage AI in a way to step into those big leagues? Finally we hit on a few broader [**predictions for 2026**](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/). I'm feeling like the iPhone Fold will be a hit – which I know sounds sort of obvious; an Apple product, a hit? – but Apple has a tendency to start slow out of the gates with such products, certainly recently. But I think the Fold, despite what will undoubtedly be a big price, could excite a lot of people [around Apple hardware again](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-aiphone/). And what if it's touted as one of the [first](https://spyglass.org/aiphone-hold-the-ai/) [*real*](https://spyglass.org/aiphone/) [AiPhones](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-aiphone/)? There is also the question of *who* will be presenting such a device to the world. [Will it be Tim Cook](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/), or will he be retired (though undoubtedly in a new role as Chairman of Apple's board) by the end of 2026? Feels like there's way too much smoke for it not to happen at some point this year. Though one wild card could be if Apple does make [a bigger acquisition](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/), perhaps to bring on more AI talent. Safe Superintelligence is probably a bridge too far, but what about Thinking Machines in their aforementioned state of chaos? I no longer think it will be Perplexity – feels like they [moved on from that idea](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/). But it also feels like someone will buy Perplexity. [Samsung](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/) spending some of their surging cash thanks to memory chips? Microsoft, still [trying](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) to make Google dance? Someone else? ### OpenAI Transfers Their Drama IP to Thinking Machines Lab URL: https://spyglass.org/thought-machine-lab/ Last updated: 2026-01-17T09:59:39.000Z [Two Thinking Machines Lab Cofounders Are Leaving to Rejoin OpenAIThe departures are a blow for Thinking Machines Lab. Two narratives are already emerging about why they happened.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-40.ico)WIREDMaxwell Zeff![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Thinking-20Machines-20Cofounder-20Barret-20Zoph-20is-20Leaving-20the-20Lab-20and-20Rejoining-20OpenAI-Business-2243572881.jpg)](https://www.wired.com/story/thinking-machines-lab-cofounders-leave-for-openai/?ref=spyglass.org) I mean... > Thinking Machines cofounders Barret Zoph and Luke Metz are leaving the fledgling AI lab and rejoining OpenAI, the ChatGPT-maker announced on Wednesday. OpenAI’s CEO of applications, Fidji Simo, shared the news in a memo to staff this afternoon. And it's not just those two, a *third* key employee – I would say "early" but this company is [*not even a year old*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking%5FMachines%5FLab?ref=spyglass.org), *so they're all early* – Sam Schoenholz, is also bolting back to OpenAI. And this is after they had already lost *another* co-founder, Andrew Tulloch, [in October](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/thinking-machines-lab-co-founder-departs-for-meta-442d7461?ref=spyglass.org). At least [he went](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Meta%20Poaches%20Thinking%20Machines%20Co%2DFounder) to Meta, [finally](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) giving in to one of Mark Zuckerberg's ["Godfather" offers](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/). That somehow looks better than this situation... > Two narratives are already forming about what prompted the departures. The news was [first reported on X by technology reporter Kylie Robison](https://x.com/kyliebytes/status/2011572331798548899?ref=spyglass.org), who wrote that Zoph was fired for “unethical conduct.” > > A source close to Thinking Machines alleged that Zoph had shared confidential company information with competitors. WIRED was unable to verify this information with Zoph, who did not immediately respond to WIRED’s request for comment. > > According to the memo from Simo, Zoph told Thinking Machines CEO Mira Murati on Monday he was considering leaving. He was then fired on Wednesday. Simo went on to write that OpenAI doesn’t share the same concerns about Zoph as Murati. My god, the drama! We would seem to have a literal he said/she said situation here. Though it seems neither hard nor a stretch to connect the dots that Zoph told Murati he might jump ship back to OpenAI (from where they both came, of course) and so Thinking Machines implemented the old "you can't quit, you're fired!" maneuver. And as a kick in the ass [out the door](https://x.com/miramurati/status/2011577319295692801?s=20&ref=spyglass.org), perhaps there was a "for cause" wrapper, the allegation of "unethical conduct" in sharing "confidential company information with competitors", which reads a lot like an accusation that Zoph, who was clearly in contact with OpenAI, may have told them things about Thinking Machines Lab – perhaps even just the notion that he would be willing to leave could be framed as "confidential company information" if you stretch, I suppose! **\[*Update:*** [***more on this below***](#update)***.*\]** All speculation, of course. But it's an easy picture to paint, especially given what Fidji Simo is explicitly [putting out there](https://x.com/fidjissimo/status/2011592010881446116?ref=spyglass.org) in not having the "concerns" that Thinking Machines Lab does in their move to fire Zoph. And while it's still being sorted out, they're clearly going to give Zoph some lofty new title, as he'll be reporting directly to Simo, [the CEO behind the CEO](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/) [of OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). Mix all of this with the [reports](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/thinking-machines-lab-ceo-unusual-control-andreessen-led-deal?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) around Thinking Machines seemingly outlandish fundraising efforts – which is certainly saying something in [our current environment](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) – at first reportedly refusing to share much of anything with would-be investors, and perhaps demanding ([and getting](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/162705846/thinking-machines-lab-ceo-has-unusual-control?ref=spyglass.org)) a problematic level of rights and control for Murati, and now [supposedly](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/murati-s-thinking-machines-in-funding-talks-at-50-billion-value?ref=spyglass.org) trying to raise at a $50B ([or $60B!](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%20Raising%20at%20%2450B)) valuation on the back of I guess [a single, smaller product](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%27s%20%27Tinker%27) in market,[1](#one) but [mainly](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=Thinking%20Machines%20Lab) promises and vibes. Oh, [and talent](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/166970418/how-thinking-machines-lab-plans-to-compete-in-ai?ref=spyglass.org). A lot of great OpenAI talent, no doubt. Of course, they've just lost *half* of that talent at the co-founder level, so... are investors going to get half off their investments? Speaking of, in a way, I suppose you could say that Thinking Machine Labs is just following in the footsteps of OpenAI [when it comes to co-founder departures](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/). And actually, [all of the AI research labs](https://x.com/Yuchenj%5FUW/status/2011664670478999713?ref=spyglass.org) seem to suffer from this co-founder departure affliction right now. Well, [except Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/). Read into [that](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) what you will... So where does this leave Thinking Machines Lab? Unclear. One guess would be that either we'll hear about that new fundraise soon in an effort to combat this extremely problematic narrative (for recruiting, if nothing else), or perhaps that the team gets "[hackquired](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)". Zuck apparently tried, [and failed](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/169658049/meta-fails-to-invade-thinking-machine-lab?ref=spyglass.org), once here. Apple, which has [a relationship](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) with Murati – [her departure](https://spyglass.org/off-to-the-ai-races/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Can%20Greg%20Brockman%20Find%20a%20Future%20Back%20at%20OpenAI%3F) from OpenAI may have contributed to the Apple/OpenAI [funding](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) [discussions](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/) [going off the rails](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/) – and [may have also](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) kicked the tires back in the day and [could use some](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) AI talent, [I hear](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/)... --- **Update January 17, 2026**: The drama continues with [multiple](https://www.wired.com/story/thinking-machines-lab-cofounder-office-relationship-firing-openai/?ref=spyglass.org) [reports](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/fired-thinking-machines-co-founder-had-undisclosed-relationship-with-colleague-4722cbeb?gaa%5Fat=eafs&gaa%5Fn=AWEtsqenECFKXW8rhm-STg12uUDCk4uYxRknYow77MPKaj3X6t7uCB3813OrW0TNrpU%3D&gaa%5Fts=696b5f80&gaa%5Fsig=d8Gljlaax4OMFUWlAbY30Hu4QwD34Ne2SyvmhLGBMivP8Kl1XB1aSJBK8j%5FBRuFxs4jks5%5FY1F0On3j8jrDiEw%3D%3D&ref=spyglass.org) now claiming Zoph's alleged misconduct may be tied to an inner-office relationship – which [he may have lied about when confronted](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/thinking-machines-leaders-confronted-cto-office-relationship-firing?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Per this telling, this may have led Zoph to look for other opportunties, including talking to Meta, before landing back at OpenAI... At the same time, [others](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/two-ai-staffers-depart-muratis-thinking-machines?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) [continue](https://www.wired.com/story/inside-openai-raid-on-thinking-machines-lab/?ref=spyglass.org) to leave Thinking Machines Lab, which may or may not be related to the Zoph situation (presumably the company losing a key technical co-founder, not the relationship part). Most damning are probably [the sources stating](https://sources.news/p/thinking-machines-is-nothing-without?ref=spyglass.org) that "the startup lacks a clear product or business strategy", and as such, has been struggling to raise that massive new round of funding. None of this will help... **Disclosure: GV, where I was a partner for over a decade, is an investor in Thinking Machines Lab, though the deal was done after I left. I have no insider knowledge about this company.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Incredible Valuation Heights of the OpenAI “Constellations”Now past $700B in aggregate. Add in OpenAI itself and we’re at $1.5T.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-890.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-9--2026--03_46_18-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) [OpenAI Generates More TurmoilIt’s probably time to change that non-profit structure for good…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-891.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-08-06-17.58.58---An-image-of-a-company-in-turmoil_-a-chaotic-office-scene-with-stressed-employees--papers-flying-around--broken-computers--and-a-manager-looking-frustr-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/) [The AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-892.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-18--2025--10_29_01-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) --- 1 To be fair, that's more than, say, Safe Superintelligence can say [at $32B](https://spyglass.org/the/). A startup which has [also lost a co-founder](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) (and CEO no less!) [to Meta](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?ref=spyglass.org). Then again, maybe [Sutskever is all you need](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/)... [↩](#) ### The Vision Pro Slam Dunk URL: https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-nba-game-vr/ Last updated: 2026-03-23T22:38:40.000Z It took a lot of work, but I finally did it. I finally booted up my Vision Pro to watch [the first full NBA game shot](https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8F%80%20Apple%20Finally%20Fulfilling%20the%20Immersive%20Vision%20Pro%20Promise) in the ["Apple Immersive"](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/10/spectrum-brings-nba-games-in-apple-immersive-to-apple-vision-pro/?ref=spyglass.org) format. It was... very cool. With some very real caveats. And it seemingly points to the future of the device itself. You don't even have to really squint to see it. Honestly, given the dearth of content over the first two years of the Vision Pro's lifespan, I'm sort of shocked that Apple pulled this off. Just going by [how long it has taken](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-immersive-content/) Apple to release [short highlight footage](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-content-release/) from other sporting events, I would have assumed we would start getting full games weeks (or months!) after they first aired. The fact that they not only turned around this Lakers vs. Bucks game right after it was played, but showed it *live* to the small subset of folks in the right market (or with the right VPN setting), is rather incredible.[1](#one) Again, given Apple's [previous cadence](https://spyglass.org/what-if-disney-vision-pro/) with such content, I would have thought this would be a 2027 or 2028 thing. I'm not trying to be a jerk, that's just how painfully slow they've been with releasing this type of content! At the same time, such content is clearly – [*clearly*](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/) – the way to move the needle when it comes to the Vision Pro. Granted, plenty of other hurdles remain – more on those in a bit – but if they want people to actually be excited about not just buying, but actually *using* the device, they need content people are excited about watching! It's not rocket science, it's behavioral science. It's human nature. So it's good to see Apple hustle here to at least try to drum up interest in the device. While I obviously didn't watch it live, Jason Snell did, and in [his thoughts for *Six Colors* on the experience](https://sixcolors.com/post/2026/01/some-first-thoughts-about-live-immersive-basketball/?ref=spyglass.org), he described it as "surprisingly... normal?" I agree with that. After the initial "wow" factor wore off of being transported to Los Angeles with Crypto.com Arena wrapped around you, it felt like... you were watching a basketball game. It wasn't exactly like watching it on TV, but it also wasn't exactly like watching it in person. It was sort of... in-between. Depending on the vantage point, it sort of veered between the television experience and the in-person experience. And that was the most jarring element of watching it – Apple kept cutting between those vantage points. You had no say over the matter, you were just zoomed from one area of the arena to another on the whim of the producers. [It wasn't as jarring as it was](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/) in those aforementioned short highlight clips of other sporting events because you did get to linger longer in each spot given that the entire experience (meaning, the entire game) was just over two-hours long. Still, during the actual game, the cuts between cameras behind the basket depending on where the action was happening was... weird. You were forced to reorient yourself constantly on the fly. I sort of got used to it as the game went on, but it's still felt a bit like a brain teaser – especially the cuts between the same perspective just on opposite ends of the court. Ben Thompson *clearly* hated this aspect, as [his fun *Stratechery* rant](https://stratechery.com/2026/apple-you-still-dont-understand-the-vision-pro/?ref=spyglass.org) going after Apple for not understanding their product makes clear. All he wanted was a single vantage point, ideally court side, where you were planted and never left. That would, he argues, be *actually immersive*. Because it wouldn't make you do the constant mental calisthenics I describe above. I don't disagree, but I also don't think that's all Apple should do. I think that should be *an* *option*.[2](#two) My feedback would be an extension of this: give us *options* for how we want to view the game. You can have the option to watch it court side. Or the option to watch it from behind the basket. Or the option to watch it in the press booth. Or the option to have a couple other vantage points in the crowd; you know, to feel actually *immersed*. And the option to cut between these views as you, the viewer, saw fit. Or the current and only option to have someone else make those calls! Obviously, this wouldn't be the most immersive experience possible because it would break the wall of illusion since there are not options to *immediately* cut between vantage points in real life. But again, I don't view this as a replacement of going to a real life game. It's a more immersive version of television. In some ways, it can be better than either, but in others it will be worse. It's just a new, cool format. Apple should lean into that. In a way, it's the same initial takeaway I had after getting the Vision Pro two years ago. For years, the world had wondered when Apple would create their own television set. And famously, some of Steve Jobs last words to his biographer Water Isaacson before he passed away pointed to him [finally "cracking"](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/) the problem for Apple. [As I wrote in February 2024](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/): > Again, as noted above, Jobs clearly wasn't talking about the Apple TV set top box. It sure sounded like another product, \*an actual television set\*. But what if everyone was reading that too literally and he did mean something \*entirely\* different. A true game-changer, Apple-style. Something like a \*new kind\* of television. One which seamlessly syncs to all of your devices via iCloud. One with no need for remotes. One with the simplest user interface you could imagine... > > One you wear, perhaps. ["Headphones for video"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQECSInWVPY&ref=spyglass.org) as it were. > > I know, it's a bit of a stretch. But nevertheless, that is what Apple has stumbled upon here. Well, that's not fair. I think Apple knows exactly what they have from a content-perspective with the Vision Pro, I just think they're muddying the message with all of the other stuff they're trying to showcase. And in part, they may feel like they have to because the device is $3,500\. As mentioned, given how long it has taken Apple to get up-to-speed on the content front for Vision Pro, I'm no longer sure they knew what they had with the product when it launched ([which it should not have, at least not fully, in its current state](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/)). But I think these NBA games, alongside [the first concert](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/) footage, and [the first (short) movie](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) actually shot for Vision Pro, and even, [oddly, 3D movies](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) (which Apple keeps pushing *heavily* in the Vision Pro Apple TV app), makes it perfectly clear. This is a content consumption device. This is their television set. Back to the game, I definitely preferred the mid-court, scorer's table angle. It was a bit low, but fun to see Bucks' coach Doc Rivers and Lakers' coach JJ Redick stalk the sidelines, getting awfully close at points. That vantage point also had some blindspots – such as when a player is taking a corner 3 – and that's in part why I would like a multi-vantage-point option. The camera angle behind the basket was too high for my taste. But I assume they also don't want to destroy their undoubtedly expensive cameras! But it's from these lower angles where you can tell just how big LeBron James is. And just how much bigger Giannis Antetokounmpo is than LeBron![3](#three) It was interesting to mostly *not* cut away from the floor during time-outs when the rest of those watching remotely would obviously go to commercial. This made it more like being at the arena, but augmented by some commentary at points. It was also fun to watch the halftime activities and half-court-shots-for-money this way. Though there was some just pure "dead time" when you would just look around – again, just like being at the actual game, but clearly with more voyeuristic feeling.[4](#four) Presumably if this format does take off, commercials will be shoved into such crevices eventually. I appreciated the inclusion of a virtual scoreboard when you looked down at the court because while looking up to the actual scoreboard in the area works, it also highlights just how heavy the Vision Pro is! Speaking of... the biggest problem Apple actually has with the Vision Pro remains just [how much of a pain it is to put on and use](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/). As both a sports and Apple fan, I should have *jumped* at the opportunity to view this content the second I could. But I waited because I knew I would have to make sure the Vision Pro was charged, and that it was a time my family wasn't around because despite [Apple's comically misguided](https://spyglass.org/vision-profoundly-uncool/) attempts to make using such a device in public less awkward with some extremely awkward looking eyes, it's a device best used alone. That said, if Apple does nail this format – and yes, [brings the cost of the Vision Pro down eventually](https://spyglass.org/apples-vision/) – I could see this becoming an interesting way to watch a game with someone. Unlike with a movie, it's natural to talk to friends/family during a game, and wouldn't it be cool if you had two different vantage points and you could tell the other person to "check the action out from here"? Or to watch a replay from another angle they witnessed live? Etc. The fact that all of this could be done without people being in the same room – and it would probably be less awkward that way! – is potentially even more interesting. My multi-angle idea also opens up some re-watchability options that don't typically exist for sports. Granted, most people still aren't going to rewatch a game they've already seen, but die-hard fans probably would from a different angle than the one they chose the first time if it was a good game. And again, watching replays from different angles of your own choosing would be pretty killer in-game. Anyway, I come away after watching this Lakers/Bucks game thinking that Apple is actually *closer to figuring this out*, at least on the content side, than I would have thought going into it. Yes, there are obviously things they need to tweak, but those seem like relatively straightforward fixes – well, as straightforward as it can be to record and stream live from five or six different immersive cameras around a venue. Ben Thompson wants something simple – his static, fully immersive view from one vantage point – but I want something a bit more: options. And I think my desire more closely matches what the masses might want – and that includes the option for this more "packaged" telecast that's more like traditional TV too, BTW. The [bigger issue](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) remains the [masses ever getting near](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) a Vision Pro with its price point and general inconvenience. But those things can change too over time if Apple sticks with it. Meta seems to be [backing away from the space now](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/), but I wonder if Apple can't sort of do an [end run around the Quest here](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/). Because there's no way this type of experience will be available on mere Smart Glasses any time soon. Apple has the money and patience to make this work for the Vision Pro. And so the biggest thing holding them back may be the rights to all of this content.[5](#five) But as the leagues make moves to take over more control of such rights themselves, there's a window for Apple here.[6](#six) Now they just need to make a version of the Vision Pro where I can actually drink a beer while watching a game while fully immersed. Thank god for long neck beer bottles, I guess? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Behold: The Apple TelevisionA revolutionary new productivity tool. A truly amazing gaming device. And an insanely great content viewer. These were not three separate products,1 but instead, the promise of one product: the Vision Pro. Unfortunately, at least for now, it sure feels like only the last of those experiences is the![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-881.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Television-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/) [Apple’s Vision PROblemApple’s Immersive Video problemOn Thursday Apple debuted its first immersive video since the Vision Pro launched, a five-minute-long compilation of highlights from the MLS Cup playoffs late last year. Without even seeing the vid…Six Colors Earlier this week, Apple finally – and I do mean finally, it took them![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-882.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Vision-Pro-sports-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/) [Enter Vision ProMetallica’s “Apple Immersive” concert is... stunningly awesome![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-883.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-Vision-Pro-Apple-Immersive-Video-James-Hetfield-and-Lars-Ulrich-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/) [The Vision Pro Starts to Come Into FocusWe’re starting to cook with fire. I’m writing this about the Vision Pro, in the Vision Pro. Which I really only did for a post or two for the novelty of it right after the device’s initial release. But now I’m doing it because it’s actually a good way to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-885.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-15-23.12.50---A-distant--artistic-depiction-of-a-person-wearing-Apple-s-Vision-Pro-headset.-The-figure-is-barely-visible-and-intentionally-out-of-focus--creating-a--4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) [‘Submerged’ Plunges Us Into a Possible Spatial Movie FutureThe Edward Berger short film for Apple is good, but points to something great…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-884.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/60d1d055-8585-4d9d-83f5-6788cae411d9_2048x1365-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) --- 1 Given the small Vision Pro user base and the restricted live markets here, how many people do we think actually watched this live? A few hundred, max? [↩](#) 2 Ben had similar feedback [around the immersive Metallica concert](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/), wanting just to be in the crowd like real life. But I would much prefer to next to the band on stage, something not possible in real life! (And yes, the option to see it from the crowd too. And backstage. Etc.) [↩](#) 3 There's no way Giannis isn't 7-feet, right? He's [listed as 6'11"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giannis%5FAntetokounmpo?ref=spyglass.org), but come on, these vantage points show he's much taller than 6'9" LeBron... [↩](#) 4 One of the more interesting elements would be when you'd see, say, a security guard just off to the side using their phone. Or a person sitting near you just drinking a beer. All things you could at the game itself but again, weird that they can't possibly know you're focused on them in that moment... [↩](#) 5 Just think of the money to be made here though. If you could sell both one-off and season "tickets" to these games. $20 a game? More? Concerts $50? [↩](#) 6 And that's presumably why Apple prefers more encompassing rights in their own sports rights deals. How long until *all* MLS games are available to stream in Apple Immersive on the Vision Pro? [What about F1?](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-rights/) [↩](#) ### "Hello, Computer." URL: https://spyglass.org/vocal-computing-ai/ Last updated: 2026-03-18T22:08:26.000Z If the vocal computing category has a boy crying wolf, I may be it. I've been writing about the notion that operating our computers through voice is "right around the corner" for almost two decades. And long before that, I was [an early adopter](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) to many a PC microphone in the 1990s and later [Bluetooth earpieces](https://parislemon.com/post/77133290161/silencio?ref=spyglass.org) in the 2000s in an attempt to run all of my computing through my voice ([and ears](https://500ish.com/listen-2167a6bbd81e?ref=spyglass.org)).[1](#one) As an industry, we've made great strides over that time span. But we're [still not living](https://500ish.com/the-voice-28dd9a7ef462?ref=spyglass.org) aboard the USS Enterprise in *Star Trek*, blabbing away to our machines. Not *yet*. Given my track record here, I feel a bit silly writing this, but I really do believe we're at some sort of inflection point for voice and computing. Why? AI, of course. Yes, technically "AI" is why I thought we were closing in on this future [15 years ago when I was a reporter breaking the news](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/28/apples-big-fall/?ref=spyglass.org) that Siri integration would be the marquee feature of iOS 5 and what would become [the iPhone 4S](https://techcrunch.com/2011/10/11/iphone-4s-review/?ref=spyglass.org) (perhaps for 'Siri'). Pushed by Steve Jobs, Apple was trying to jump ahead to [the next paradigm](https://500ish.com/computing-in-concert-679e68c14b8a?ref=spyglass.org) in computing interaction after leveraging multitouch to revolutionize the world with the iPhone (not to mention on the Mac with the mouse, back in the day). Again, voice technology had been around for a long time, but the only place it really worked was in science fiction. Armed with Siri, a startup they had [acquired the year before](https://techcrunch.com/2010/04/28/apple-buys-virtual-personal-assistant-startup-siri/?ref=spyglass.org), Apple thought now was the time. "Now" being 2011. It didn't exactly work out that way. To the point where [Apple is *actually* the boy who cried wolf](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) when it comes to Siri. After [the buzzy launch](https://techcrunch.com/2011/10/16/iphone-siri/?ref=spyglass.org) in 2011, 2012 was going to be the year they made Siri work well. Then 2013\. Then 2014\. Then Amazon launched Alexa and thanks to [a better strategy](https://500ish.com/alexa-everywhere-eeee670a5f02?ref=spyglass.org) around vocal computing at the time, [started to eat Apple's lunch](https://500ish.com/siri-already-did-it-9bc61074bec4?ref=spyglass.org). Millions of Echo devices later and Google entered the space and it looked like we were off to the races... But it was all sort of [a head fake](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/). A hands-free way to set timers and play music. Maybe a few trivia games. And not much else. Amazon couldn't figure out how to get people to shop in a real way with voice. Google couldn't figure out the right ads format. Billions were burned. All the while, Apple [kept telling us](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) that 2015 was the year of Siri. Then 2016\. Then 2017\. 2018\. 2019... All the way up until WWDC 2024, *when this time,* [*Apple meant it*](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/). Thanks to the latest breakthroughs in AI, Siri was finally going to get grandma home from that airport using some simple voice commands. It was coming that Fall. [Then the](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-vaporware/) [following Spring](https://spyglass.org/springtime-2025-siri/). [Then](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) [never](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/). [Is never good for you?](https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/bob-mankoff/the-story-of-how-about-never?ref=spyglass.org) Fast forward to today, 2026\. That functionality may now [*actually*](https://spyglass.org/siri-2026/) be coming this Spring. Something I obviously would never in a million years believe given Apple's track-record here. Except that they've seemingly [outsourced the key parts](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) – the AI – [to Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/). So... we'll see! Regardless, AI was the key missing ingredient. We just didn't realize it because we thought we had that technology covered. Sure, it was early, but it would get better. [But as it turns out](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/), what powered Siri, and Alexa, and even Google's Home devices [wasn't the right flavor of AI](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/). Depending on the task, it could taste okay. But most tasks left you throwing up... your hands in frustration. By 2017, it was clear that the world was shifting again, as [I wrote in an essay entitled "**The Voice**"](https://500ish.com/the-voice-28dd9a7ef462?ref=spyglass.org): > And then there’s Siri. While Apple had the foresight to [acquire Siri](https://techcrunch.com/2010/04/28/apple-buys-virtual-personal-assistant-startup-siri/?ref=spyglass.org) and make it a marquee feature of the iPhone — [in 2011!](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/28/apples-big-fall/?ref=spyglass.org) — before their competitors knew what was happening, Apple has treated Siri like, well, an Apple product. That is, iterate secretly behind the scenes and focus on new, big functionality only when they deem it ready to ship, usually timed with a new version of iOS. That’s great, but I’m not sure it’s the right way forward for this new computing paradigm — things are changing far too quickly. > > This is where I insert buzzwords. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning. AI. Machine Learning… > > But really: [AI. Machine Learning.](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/01/07/how-voice-technology-is-transforming-computing?ref=spyglass.org) In hindsight, all of this was [correct](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/). But even then, we didn't realize that "Machine Learning" – the specialty which brought John Giannandrea from Google to Apple – was closer, but still needed to evolve too. [Into LLMs](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/). As that revolution, ushered in by OpenAI with ChatGPT, building on the back of insights [shockingly discarded](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) by Google, has washed over the entire tech industry and has started to seep into the broader population, it seems like the time may be at hand for voice to work, for real this time. This is what I saw a glimpse of with [OpenAI's GPT-4o launch](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) a couple years ago, and wrote about at the time with [**"OpenAI Changes the Vocal Computing Game!"**](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/): > Said another way, while this is undoubtedly a series of large breakthroughs in technology, it's just as big of a breakthrough in \*presentation\*. And this matters because 99% of the world are not technologists. They don't care how impressive and complicated the technology powering all this stuff may be, they just care that Siri can't understand what they're actually looking for and keeps telling them that in the most robotic, cold way possible. [Which is perhaps even more infuriating.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTefnhbg0Ig&ref=spyglass.org) Some of this got buried under the [hoopla](https://spyglass.org/scarlett-letters/) created when [Sam Altman directly reference](https://x.com/sama/status/1790075827666796666?ref=spyglass.org) the movie *Her* and got everyone up in arms about one of the voices that sounded perhaps [a bit too much](https://spyglass.org/samantha-sky-scarlett-ai-voice/) like that [of Scarlett Johansson](https://spyglass.org/sky-gets-called-to-the-sky/). But part of it was also that while we kept inching closer, we *still* weren't quite there yet with regard to voice and computing. The voice modes across all of the different services really are pretty incredible now – certainly when compared to the old school Siri, Alexa, and the like – but it's still not quite enough to make the AI sing, perhaps quite literally. Part of that is the underlying models, which for voice are slightly inferior to the text-based models – something which [OpenAI is actively working on addressing](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ramps-audio-ai-efforts-ahead-device?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – but another part of it is simply a UI one. While all the services keep moving it around to spur usage, voice mode is still very secondary in most of the AI services. Because they're chatbots. The old text-based paradigm [is a strength and a weakness](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/). [As I wrote](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/): > One side of that equation: the actual "smarts" of these assistants have been getting better by leaps and bounds over the past many months. The rise of LLMs has made the corpus of data that Siri, Alexa, and the like were drawing from feel like my daughter's bookshelf compared to the entirety of the world wide web. But again, that doesn't matter without an interface to match. And ChatGPT gave us that for the first time 18 months ago. But at the end of the day, it's still just a chatbot. Something you interact with via a textbox. That's fine but [it's not the end state of this.](https://spyglass.org/ai-agents/) The past 18 months have seen a lot of reports about [projects](https://spyglass.org/rabbit-r1-thoughts/) trying to break [outside](https://spyglass.org/rabbit-r1-cant-run/) of that textbox. While the [early](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-device-no-taste-test/) attempts [quickly](https://spyglass.org/rabbit-r1-mkbhd-rant/) – and in [some](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-brutal-review/) cases [spectacularly](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/) – failed, undoubtedly because they were [trying to be](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/) too ambitious, [and do too much](https://spyglass.org/chat-gpt-pin/), a new wave is now coming to tackle the problem. This is led by none other than OpenAI itself, which [acquired](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) the hardware startup co-founded by one Jony Ive to [clearly](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) go after this space. To make an ["anti-iPhone"](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) as it were. A deceptively simple companion device powered by AI and driven by voice. That's just a guess, of course. But it's [undoubtedly a good one](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). And you can see all of the [other](https://www.granola.ai/?ref=spyglass.org) [startups](https://speechify.com/?ref=spyglass.org) [coalescing](https://elevenlabs.io/?ref=spyglass.org) [around](https://www.sesame.com/?ref=spyglass.org) all of this as well. Hardware startups too! [Pendants](https://spyglass.org/ai-friend-wearable/), and [clips](https://spyglass.org/limitless-pendant/), and [bracelets](https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/12/why-amazon-bought-bee-an-ai-wearable/?ref=spyglass.org), and note-taking rings – [not one](https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/09/pebbles-founder-introduces-a-75-ai-smart-ring-for-recording-brief-notes-with-a-press-of-a-button/?ref=spyglass.org), but *two* separate, [similar projects](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/05/former-meta-employees-launch-stream-a-smart-ring-that-takes-voice-notes-and-controls-music/?ref=spyglass.org) – oh my. All of them clearly believe that voice is on the cusp of taking off, for real this time. And right on cue, [Alexa is back](https://spyglass.org/tag/alexa-2/), after some fits and starts, resurrected as Alexa+ powered by LLMs. Google Home is on the verge of [being reborn](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/devices/google-nest/new-nest-cams-home-speaker-walmart/?ref=spyglass.org#google-home-speaker), powered by Gemini. [Siri too](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/)! Maybe, hopefully, really for real this time! 2026 feels pretty key for all of this. The models have to be refined and perfected for voice. In some cases, perhaps even shrunken down to perform [in real-time on-device](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/). Then we need to figure out the right form-factors for said devices. Sure, the smartphone will remain key, and will probably serve as the connection for most [companion tech](https://spyglass.org/clever-clicks-smartphone-accessory/), but we're going to get a range of purpose-built hardware for AI out in the wild which will be predominantly controlled via voice. [Smart glasses too](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/), of course. Even Apple Watch. And AirPods should [continue](https://spyglass.org/an-ode-to-the-volume-swipe/) to [morph](https://spyglass.org/airpods-with-cameras/) into the [tiny computers](https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/) that they are in your ears. Voice is the key to fully unlocking all of this.[2](#two) And, one day, the *true* next wave: robots. Are you going to text C-3PO what you want him to do?[3](#three) Of course not, you're going to *tell* him. --- 1 Yes, I was *that* guy. [↩](#) 2 With a special shout-out to [Meta's wrist-input device](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) (born directly out of our old GV investment in CTRL Labs!) as a wild card here... [↩](#) 3 And with that, I have successfully conflated *Star Trek* and *Star Wars*, you're welcome, Gandalf. [↩](#) ### And the Winner of Apple's Great AI Bakeoff is... Google URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-google-siri-ai/ Last updated: 2026-03-18T22:08:09.000Z [Apple picks Google’s Gemini to run AI-powered Siri coming this yearGoogle’s market value surpassed Apple for the first time since 2019 as it rolls out updated artificial intelligence features.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/CNBC_LOGO_FAVICON_1C_KO_RGB.ico)CNBCSamantha Subin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/108251190-1768231661465-gettyimages-2252639381-dellatorre-notitle251222_npwev.jpeg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/apple-google-ai-siri-gemini.html?ref=spyglass.org) [No surprise](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/), but now it's official: > [Apple](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL/?ref=spyglass.org) is joining forces with [Google](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL/?ref=spyglass.org) to power its [artificial intelligence](https://www.cnbc.com/ai-effect/?ref=spyglass.org) features, including a major [Siri](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/apple-intelligence-ai-siri-iphone.html?ref=spyglass.org) upgrade later this year, the tech giants said on Monday. > > The multi-year partnership will lean on Google’s [Gemini](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/google-adds-gemini-features-to-gmail-message-summaries-proofreading-.html?ref=spyglass.org) models and cloud technology for future Apple foundational models, according to a statement obtained by CNBC’s Jim Cramer. Sort of weird that they would announce such a big deal this way rather than official releases/interviews/etc, then again, [the talk has been](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) – at least on Apple's side – to downplay the partnership. We get it, it's sort of embarrassing to have to outsource your work in such a key aspect of technology, let alone one you believed [you were at the forefront of](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) not that long ago, at least with regard to Siri. And one you promised would get grandma home from the airport soon, [only to fail to launch](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/). So now you're stuck outsourcing that work to not just someone else, but one of your [chief rivals](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) for years and years. Ouch. Of course, even as Android battled the iPhone, the two companies remained wedded in Search – one of the most lucrative and [divisive deals of all time](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/). And this deal undoubtedly [expands upon that one](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/). While they're declining to comment on terms, [Mark Gurman of *Bloomberg* pegged it](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-05/apple-plans-to-use-1-2-trillion-parameter-google-gemini-model-to-power-new-siri?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org) at around $1B a year back in November. That seems low, especially when we know the Search deal itself is $20B+ a year. But there are a bunch of details we don't yet know. Apple's actual statement on the matter is interesting: > “After careful evaluation, we determined that Google’s technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and we’re excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for our users,” Apple said in a statement. This makes it sound as if Apple won't run Gemini straight-up, but instead will use Gemini to train (distill?) their own foundational models. Unless those models are really just a white-labeled version of Gemini, which they may be at first. Another option may be to pipe Gemini into Siri as an option alongside the current ChatGPT partnership – which Apple said *isn't changing* with this news. Perhaps such integrations are even more pronounced in a future build of iOS this Spring... If you squint, you can see a three-step strategy from Apple here: **1)** Place Gemini as an option for Siri alongside ChatGPT **2)** Use different Gemini flavors to help train Apple's own Foundation Models **3)** Work on your own custom Foundation Models without Gemini Again, if they go with **#1**, I have to imagine they make the placement much more prominent. Even if not in the UI, perhaps they'll just make Siri default to Gemini and/or ChatGPT (depending on which the user chooses?) much more often – perhaps for basically all but the system-level queries (setting timers, etc). This would buy them some time to work on **#2**, getting their own new models up to speed. Perhaps for iOS 27 in the Fall, or perhaps even later. Presumably, they'll get first access to new Gemini work from Google to stay at the cutting edge with this deal. And it seems like Apple will probably become one of Google Cloud's biggest partners, if they're not already? [As I wrote last November](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/): > There are probably a few other interesting wrinkles in there – one of which may be Apple's willingness to do this because a lot of their cloud infrastructure is already running on Google Cloud. So this may not be as heavy of a lift and as big of an ask as it may seem on the surface. And while the "walled off" aspect is clearly a must for Apple here, you could also imagine that the company may be willing to share some data – fully anonymized, of course – back to help constantly improve the model. And that may speak to why Google would want to do this deal (well, that and the money). Apple has devices in the wild at a scale that basically no one can match. Maybe Samsung, but this potentially unlocks a totally new user base. Then with #1 and #2, or some combination, **#3** would give Apple even more time – *years* – to completely rebuild and rework their own in-house AI that's less dependent on others. Apple doesn't even have a leader in place for that work yet [to replace John Giannandrea](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/) and the remaining team has been [gutted by Meta](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) so... they need some time. As a bonus, this deal gives access to the best technology right now while they can take their time to figure out if LLMs are fully worth doing on their own, or if other, [newer types of models](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/)/tech comes into favor... ****Update:** as [Kalley Huang reminds us at **The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/technology/apple-google-ai-partnership.html?ref=spyglass.org), Apple did poach Amar Subramanya from Microsoft last month, seemingly to spearhead their AI efforts. But unlike JG, who reported directly to Tim Cook, [Subramanya will report to Craig Federighi](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/), thus making Federighi the actual, de-facto head of the AI initiatives. I still wonder if they don't need someone higher up, a bigger name... but again, they have time to figure that out now. Especially since before his brief stint at Microsoft, Subramanya cut his teeth helping to build and launch... Gemini. ****One more thing:** The report also notes in passing that this Gemini deal is **not exclusive*. That's probably more of an olive branch [to regulators](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) ([sorry, Elon Musk](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/184367969/elon-musk-is-big-mad-again?ref=spyglass.org)), but it technically would also allow Apple to mix and match models from others as they see fit, I suppose... It is interesting that Apple emphasizes the "careful consideration" aspect of the process here. Presumably that means they weighed continuing to do this on their own, but also the possibility of partnering with Anthropic, [as has also been reported previously](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/), or going deeper with OpenAI. Not surprising that Apple would go with Google – who yes, just passed them in market cap – over a startup. Still, this must be disappointing to OpenAI given the current partnership. With Anthropic, it just seems like something they only would have done if Apple made it make sense monetarily, which they clearly couldn't agree upon. Back to what I wrote in November: > Apple may not have wanted to pay Anthropic $1.5B a year to use Claude but $1B a year to a partner that is paying you $20B+ for that Search deal? That can be just an in-kind deal! "Google, you know that $25B you owe us this year? Make it $24B, but we'll take a custom build of Gemini. Deal?" Deal. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-12--2026--05_45_28-PM-1.png) --- **Update**: There is now an official joint statement, [at least on Google's blog](https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-announcements/joint-statement-google-apple/?ref=spyglass.org). Similar to the one Apple gave to *CNBC*, but a bit longer: > Apple and Google have entered into a multi-year collaboration under which the next generation of Apple Foundation Models will be based on Google's Gemini models and cloud technology. These models will help power future Apple Intelligence features, including a more personalized Siri coming this year. > > After careful evaluation, Apple determined that Google's Al technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and is excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for Apple users. Apple Intelligence will continue to run on Apple devices and Private Cloud Compute, while maintaining Apple's industry-leading privacy standards. That last bit seems key. The wording is vague (undoubtedly on purpose), but it seems to suggest that Apple will be able to train Apple Intelligence with Gemini to still run *locally* on devices – and for the non-local queries, presumably Private Cloud Compute is already running in Google Cloud, even if they don't exactly tout it. --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Finally Agrees to Fix SiriThey’ll swap Google billions for Gemini trillions (of parameters)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-876.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-6--2025--01_36_23-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) [Apple’s Great AI Bake OffGemini enters the tent alongside Claude, ChatGPT, and Apple’s own models to see who can bake the best Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-878.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_a_bunch_of_cakes_being_baked_by_robots_--v_7_621fd0b0-e446-427b-8976-bbf74ff99c4e_2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) [Hey Siri, Time for that LobotomyAs predicted, Apple may outsource Siri to ChatGPT (or Claude)!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-879.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ad98f15-b90d-4490-9630-f46e158cd894-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) [Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPTNot forever, but for now. Until a new, better Siri is actually ready to roll — which may be \*years\* away…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-880.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_with_an_apple_logo_and_a_scientist_opening_up_i_dbf83ee0-18c0-48e0-8074-7e3f2a9c4212_2-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) [Apple and Google Are So BackThe famous frenemies seems awfully aligned again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-877.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-7.19.11---PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) ### AI Needs Its Steve Jobs URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-steve-jobs/ Last updated: 2026-03-15T13:37:41.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/d31a0e19-d265-40e0-94b3-9a4227da3bd3.png) There are two camps. Either you're in the camp that thinks AI is absolutely the future of everything and anyone who says otherwise is a moron. Which includes the other camp: those that think that AI is the worst thing in the world and is going to ruin everything. There are varying degrees within those camps, of course – for example, the "[Doomers](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2025/08/ai-doomers-chatbots-resurgence/683952/?ref=spyglass.org)" who think that not only is AI a problem, it could quite literally be the end of the world – but you're on some spectrum in one of those camps... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The "AI-Generated Hit Movie" Horror Story URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-generated-hit-movies/ Last updated: 2026-03-15T13:37:23.000Z [Roku CEO Talks New $3/Month Ad-Free Streamer, Predicts First ‘100% AI-Generated Hit Movie’ Will Be Released in Next Three YearsRoku CEO and founder Anthony Wood predicts big things for AI and Hollywood in the next three years.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-50.png)VarietyJennifer Maas![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Anthony-Wood-Roku-CES.jpg)](https://variety.com/2026/film/news/roku-ceo-cheap-ad-free-streamer-100-ai-hit-movie-1236625468/?ref=spyglass.org) As the CEO of a major streaming player, you'd think Anthony Wood would rather not get Hollywood [all riled up](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/). Maybe he's taking a page [out of Ted Sarandos' former playbook](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/)? > “I have no idea if there’s an investment bubble, but I know that AI is going to be huge, and it already is,” Wood said during a headliner conversation with *Variety*‘s co-editor-in-chief Cynthia Littleton at the Variety Entertainment Summit at CES Wednesday. “So it’s going to affect lots of different industries, but in our industry, it’s going to lower the cost of content production. I predict within the next three years, we’ll see the first 100% AI-generated hit movie, for example.” The first part is obviously a reasonable position. Most people think it is an investment bubble, but also that it's perhaps a needed one given the prospects of the technology, [which is where I generally fall](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) (outside of a handful of outlandish deals). But Wood is not in the business of investment advice or thoughts. Again, he *is* in the entertainment business and so not only talking about the prospects of "100% AI-generated" movies, but *predicting* that they'll be here within *three years*, producing hits, is, um, [controversial](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/). I also tend to think it's silly. Will we be able to produce 100% AI-generated content in three years? *For sure*. But we can already do that now. It's what is flooding social network feeds as we speak. What started as AI-generated images has morphed into video. And what started as short clips is naturally morphing into longer ones. But really all you need to do in order to make longer ones is simply stitch shorter ones together, obviously. And so the AI-generated trailers that have been flooding our feeds ranging from fake *Avengers* movies to [fake *Zelda* movies](https://x.com/PJaccetturo/status/2008559114704875888?ref=spyglass.org) are just one step removed from full movies. Well, maybe a few steps. But really, it's just time. Anyone can do that right now. The bigger question is if there will be an audience for that content. And that's the controversial part of Wood's comment. It's not the creation – again, that will happen – but the notion that it would lead to a "hit movie". I have a hard time believing that will happen for a range of reasons, including the current powers that be. I suppose it depends on how you define "hit". But I take it to mean a movie that millions watch via "traditional" methods, be it in theaters or now on streaming services (or on "regular" television, I suppose). Three years is a long time in AI, but in the grand scheme of entertainment, it's short. Movies are just being greenlit right now that will come out in three years. The mechanisms are already established to distribute those movies. So where is this AI hit movie going to slot in? Certainly not in a movie theater! Okay, so what about a streaming service? Maybe. But again, the most obvious such service to create hits, Netflix, is [in the midst of trying to buy a movie studio](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) and as such, Ted Sarandos is now [busy backtracking](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) from his aforementioned previous comments. Certainly Netflix, like Roku, will use AI to enable talent (and yes, [drive down costs](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/)), but [I have a hard time believing](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) they'll go forward with a full AI-generated movie in that timeframe. Also, [just imagine the lawsuits](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/)? Other services? Maybe! But it certainly won't be Disney. I don't think it will be Amazon. HBO will either be owned by Netflix [or Paramount](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/), and again, it won't be them. So it could be a smaller player, but will they be able to make a movie a true "hit"? Could Roku? The wildcard would be YouTube. Because of the UGC underpinnings of the service, you'll certainly see movie-length AI-generated content uploaded. Especially from those outside the current systems – [that's a good thing](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/)! But will any of it actually "hit"? Maybe as a novelty some will get a ton of "views", but it's hard to imagine it would be considered a true "hit" movie. More just like a proof-of-concept type thing, perhaps. People will point to music and note that there are [some AI-generated "hits" popping up](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/nov/13/ai-music-spotify-billboard-charts?ref=spyglass.org). Two things there. First, I still suspect there is a novelty aspect to this. Second, a three-minute song is a different beast than a two-hour movie. Many people are willing to give up three-minutes of their time. Two-hours is a commitment. One other element that our AI-enabled future is going to highlight: time is the ultimate premium. Now, *longer than 3 years* for that AI-generated hit movie, all bets are off. But that window Wood gives seems too short. Not because of AI, but [because](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) of the way distribution currently works. I would also just say that I continue to bet that while such AI-generated content is coming, I think once that novelty factor wears off, you'll be hard-pressed to find big hits there in the way you do with human-created movies and television. And, counterintuitively, I think as AI-generated content continues to flood every surface, [it will raise the demand (and thus, value) for human-generated content](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/). I do think there will be "hybrid" content – part human-created, part AI-created – but I think people will prefer to watch work that was created by other people, because they will value the time and care spent on it. We'll slowly realize it's [just as much about the input, as the output](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). To be fair, Wood does hit on some of this in the same chat: > “I think people underestimate how dramatic that’s going to be,” Wood said. “I mean, obviously I don’t think people are going to get replaced. Humans are still the creative force behind creating content and hit shows, but the cost is going to come down dramatically, and that’s going to change a lot of companies’ business models. So I’m focused on, how do we take advantage of that? That’s a big opportunity for us.” Again, that's reasonable. The AI-generated movie topping the box office in 2029? Less so. **One more thing:** I [continue to be](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/171274073/roku-says-howdy-to-a-299-streaming-service?ref=spyglass.org) intrigued by Roku's "Howdy" play: > For Howdy, Wood describes the $3-per-month Howdy offering as “not designed to replace a major streaming service like Netflix or Disney, it’s designed to be an add-on service.” > > “The opportunity for Howdy was, if you just look at what’s going on in the streaming world with streaming services, they’re getting more and more expensive,” Wood said. “They keep raising prices, and they keep adding larger and larger ad loads. So the part of the market where it actually started, low cost and no ads, is gone now. There’s no streaming services that addressed that portion of the market. That’s the opportunity for Howdy. It’s three bucks a month and no ads and it’s doing extremely well. Just like we built the Roku Channel using the promotional power of our platform, that’s what we’re doing with Howdy. We’re using that to grow it. But Howdy has very broad appeal. There’s lots of people in the world that want a $3-a-month streaming service with no ads. So we’ll start on Roku, but we’ll also take it off platform as well. I think it’s going to be a really large business.” I've been critical of Roku [with regard to ads in the past](https://spyglass.org/roku-adds-ads/), but this [makes a lot of sense to me](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/171274073/roku-says-howdy-to-a-299-streaming-service?ref=spyglass.org). And [I suspect](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) we'll see others start to copy this model too. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Terminating the AI vs. Hollywood TropesJames Cameron has some interesting – and some refreshing – and some controversial – thoughts about AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-855.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_terminator_holding_a_bouquet_of_flowers_--ar_21_--pro_0b735ec9-f3bf-431c-b5bc-fca76515473a_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-858.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [Hollywood vs. AI: The MovieMy god, the open letter is full of stars -- especially Cate Blanchett![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-856.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-1-10.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) [Sora’s Slop Hits DifferentIt’s about creative comedy creation, stupid![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-860.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_ai_slop_content_--ar_169_--v_7_145f3cbb-2d2b-4461-b215-c60b89a53de4_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-857.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_-13.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) ### The Incredible Valuation Heights of the OpenAI "Constellations" URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/ Last updated: 2026-03-11T16:40:22.000Z Last March, I set out to map [the OpenAI "Constellations"](https://spyglass.org/the/) – that is, the startups not only in OpenAI's orbit, but those directly tied to it, founded by entrepreneurs that had previously been at OpenAI. No surprise, given both our moment in time with AI and the current funding environment around AI, there are a lot. So I set a threshold at the $1B valuation mark. By my math back then – again, a whole 10 months ago – those entities had a combined valuation of around $200B. And when you added in the valuation of OpenAI itself at the time, we were right at the $500B mark. Just six months later, those numbers had changed drastically, [so I checked back in on those valuations](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/). At the end of August, that $200B aggregate valuation was past $400B. And with OpenAI's updated valuation, we were right around $1T in combined value. Well, we're not quite six months since then, but given that Anthropic, xAI, and OpenAI itself – the three main drivers of those valuations, obviously – have all either just raised or are in the process of raising again, let's check back in... ### Ursa Super Major - **Anthropic** was in the process of raising the round that would value them [at $183B](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Anthropic%27s%20%2413B%20Round%20at%20%24183B) back then. Just months later, they're working on [a new round which will value them at $350B](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-raising-10-billion-at-350-billion-value-62af49f4?ref=spyglass.org) – before the investment**.** And while that process may have been [kicked off by NVIDIA and Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) – yes, the same Microsoft [that owns 27% of OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) – committing to invest, that money will apparently be *on top of* this new $10B that they're likely to raise here from other investors. If history is any indication, Anthropic will raise more than $10B, but let's just keep it there for now and add it to the $15B in commitments from Microsoft and NVIDIA, and that gives them a new post-money of **$375B**. - **xAI** was said to be trying to raise at $170B to $200B last August, which I gave them the credit for because of course Elon Musk was going to be able to raise whatever he wanted, comps be damned! Well, it took a bit longer, but they have now [announced](https://x.ai/news/series-e?ref=spyglass.org) the $20B Series E, which they really, *really* would like you to know exceeded their target. They didn't announce the valuation, but [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/technology/xai-elon-musk-funding.html?ref=spyglass.org) put it "above $230B" which is weirdly worded in there, but I take to mean **$235B**. Given that these two companies formed by those formerly affiliated with OpenAI are valued **above $600B** *by themselves*, it's probably worth breaking them into their own category, and we know how much AI companies love to [append "Super"](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) to [everything](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/183928356/openais-roadmap?ref=spyglass.org), so let's go with "Ursa Super Major". ### Ursa Major - **Safe Superintelligence**, speaking of "super", it seems like [Ilya Sutskever's startup](https://spyglass.org/safe-superintelligence-openai/) is still "stuck" at the **$32B** valuation from their "seed" round. I'll comically note that this seems almost prudent given the rate at which everyone else is raising. Sutskever may be giving his company some optionality, as a few of the big players would undoubtedly still be open to acquiring them – well, "[hackquiring](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" at least – in this general price range, to get access to Sutskever if nothing else. And given that [they're down a co-founder](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) (and first CEO) thanks to Meta's mad scramble to catch up in AI (which included trying to acquire Safe Superintelligence, but instead they ended up investing – before they poached Daniel Gross...). Sutskever has [opened up a bit more](https://spyglass.org/signal-blue-binge/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Ilya%20Sutskever%20on%20Dwarkesh%20Podcast) about what SSI is doing recently, and that included an explanation of how they can compete without needing to raise endless capital, like their rivals. Have I mentioned that Sutskever's own OpenAI shares [may be worth tens of billions all the way up to $100B now](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/), so he can probably fund SSI's "return to research" himself. Still, don't be shocked if he raises again sometime soon and resets their valuation... - **Thinking Machines Lab**, would provide the reason for SSI to raise again if they're able to complete a round valuing them at $50B or **$60B**! That was [rumored a few months ago](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/murati-s-thinking-machines-in-funding-talks-at-50-billion-value?ref=spyglass.org) already and doesn't seem to have happened yet. So I'll keep them behind SSI for now on the list, but give them credit for the reported valuation jump from the "mere" $12B valuation "seed" round in July. They have also lost a co-founder, [also to Meta](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Meta%20Poaches%20Thinking%20Machines%20Co%2DFounder), since then. But hey, at least they have [a product in market](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%27s%20%27Tinker%27) now. And [promises of more to come](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=Thinking%20Machines%20Lab) this year... \[*See* [*update*](#update) *below...*\] - **Perplexity** would also have been vaulted if Thinking Machines gets that round done. Their most recent round [reportedly](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/perplexity-finalizes-20-billion-valuation-round?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) pushed their valuation to **$20B**, up from the $18B just a couple months prior (when I last checked in). One of my predictions for 2026 is that [someone will buy Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=Someone%20buys%20Perplexity), as they may need to step off the hamster wheel of funding. Samsung is the most obvious acquirer given [their partnership](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/) (and [great financial situation](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/183928356/samsungs-record-profits-are-not-about-smartphones?ref=spyglass.org) at the moment), but they've also been going deeper with Google... just as [the other](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) [would-have-been buyer](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/), Apple, [has been](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/)... These combined numbers add up to **over $100B** now, just for Ursa Major, without the 'Supers'! ### Ursa Minor - **Harvey** jumped up to an **$8B** valuation [in December](https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/04/legal-ai-startup-harvey-confirms-8b-valuation/?ref=spyglass.org), up from $5B at the last check in. - **Periodic Labs** may be a bit above the $1B mark during the last check-in as the round seems to have grown from a rumored $200M to a [confirmed $300M](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/30/former-openai-and-deepmind-researchers-raise-whopping-300m-seed-to-automate-science/?ref=spyglass.org). Some reports suggest $1.5B or even [perhaps](https://salestools.io/en/report/periodic-labs-300m-series-a?ref=spyglass.org) **$2B**. - **Cresta** is one I actually missed in the previous reports, probably because it was co-founded way back in 2017 by early OpenAI researcher Tim Shi. It currently sits at a **$1.6B** valuation, which it hit back in 2022. - **Eureka Labs** still hasn't raised any outside capital, it seems. Though Andrej Karpathy obviously [could](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Andrej%20Karpathy%20on%20the%20Dwarkesh%20Podcast) at any time, probably at any valuation. So that's a solid haul for this group **just over $10B**. --- Okay, so grouped all together, we're looking at an aggregate valuation of just over **$730B** – a number which has *nearly quadrupled* in less than a year. And nearly doubled just since August.Obviously it's top-heavy, but even taking out the 'Supers', you'd still have a group valued collectively at **$123B**. Would that alone be the highest valued group post-PayPal Mafia? Or even if you remove Elon from the full equation, you're looking at almost exactly a **$500B** aggregate valuation for the OpenAI diaspora. And if you add **OpenAI** [itself](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Worth%20Way%20More%20Than%20%24800B) into the mix, with their newly [targeted](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-new-fundraising-round-could-value-startup-at-as-much-as-830-billion-93de9f7c?ref=spyglass.org) **$830B** valuation, well, you're truly in the stars now: just over **$1.5T**. That's awfully close to Meta's market cap. And [if](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/)/[when](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) OpenAI and Anthropic go public, both may shoot past that mark by themselves given likely investor demand ([depending on timing](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/)). And if/[when](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=2027%20and%20beyond...-,Tesla%20stalls,-%E2%80%93%20Anything%20involving%20Elon) xAI merges with Tesla, making them [an AI company](https://afar.spyglass.org/i/183695109/building-ai-robots-is-hard?ref=spyglass.org) as well... **Disclosure: GV, where I was a partner for over a decade, is an investor in Harvey and Thinking Machines Lab. Google, which is the LP of GV, is* [**an investor in*](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) *Anthropic and,* [**I believe*](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/)**, Safe Superintelligence.* --- **Update January 15, 2026**: Maybe we should hold off on giving credit for that new Thinking Machines Lab round for a bit... [OpenAI Transfers Their Drama IP to Thinking Machines LabAI startups are losing co-founders like they’re OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-889.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-15--2026--09_38_51-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/thought-machine-lab/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Peering Back at the OpenAI “Constellations”The aggregate valuation looks to surge past $400B…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-850.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_the_sky_with_money_flying_around_--v__54cfb7bc-36a4-492b-8988-66461f5266b8_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/) [The OpenAI ConstellationsThe out-of-this-world funding numbers in OpenAI’s orbit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-852.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_space_with_money_signs_--ar_21_--prof_21804d63-0790-4c9f-aa93-88c57c811c4c_3-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/the/) [Collect Them All (AI Edition)An ongoing list of the tangled web of Big Tech investments in Big AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-851.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_gauntlet_showcasing_infinity_stones_cartoon_16_63064780-aac9-46e1-b3d6-091769114cdd_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) ### Gmail's First Lunge Towards Stabbing Email to Death with AI URL: https://spyglass.org/please-end-email/ Last updated: 2026-03-11T16:40:07.000Z Do you like email? It is, of course, a rhetorical question as *no one* likes email.[1](#one) It's a fact we're reminded of each and every new year after the holidays are over when you open your email service and your face is met with a fist in the form of your inbox. And while you might think that Google likes email because [they run the most popular email service in Gmail](https://spyglass.org/gmail-20/), with 3 billion plus users, there's obviously a very real association risk here. If a company makes the product you most hate to use... there are negative halo effects, [just ask Meta](https://500ish.com/verse-meta-verse-f6ea5ba548c3?ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, the good news for Google is that they may finally have the appropriate tools to combat the email problem. While they've long been inserting AI into Gmail here and there – the auto-completion/correction features were probably some of the first AI that a lot of the world engaged with in a forward-facing manner – [Gemini now seems robust enough](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) to insert it everywhere. They've obviously been ramping up doing that in Search so as best to [disrupt themselves](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) before someone else does, and now it would seem to be Gmail's turn. [In a blog post today](https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/gmail/gmail-is-entering-the-gemini-era/?ref=spyglass.org), the company outlines what Gmail will look like in the "Gemini Era". A lot of it you've undoubtedly already seen in the form of 'AI Overviews' – though this is seemingly getting a nice expansion to your entire inbox based on queries, and not just individual overviews at the top of emails. But there's also the more standard and straightforward: 'Help Me Write', 'Suggested Replies', and, of course, 'Proofread'. But the real key is something you haven't seen to date: 'AI Inbox'. While Google is just starting to test it now, you can see what it looks like and how it will function in their post. They describe it thusly: > Your inbox is filled with updates; some are critical, others are just noise. The new AI Inbox filters out the clutter so you can focus on what’s most important. > > AI Inbox is like having a personalized briefing, highlighting to-dos and catching you up on what matters. It helps you prioritize, identifying your VIPs based on signals like people you email frequently, those in your contacts list and relationships it can infer from message content. Crucially, this analysis happens securely with the privacy protections you expect from Google, keeping your data under your control. This lets high-stakes items — like a bill due tomorrow or a dentist reminder — rise to the top. We’re giving trusted testers access to AI Inbox before making it more broadly available in the coming months. The first part sounds like just an expansion of what Gmail has long done with algorithmic sorting. I turned this off long ago as I found it not that useful when it worked and insanely frustrating when it didn't. But the second part is the key. From the sound (and look) of it, 'AI Inbox' is going to completely blow up your inbox as you've known it to date. To be clear, that old inbox will still be there. Google isn't crazy enough to force 3B+ users into this new reality – he says this and then immediately remembers [Google+ being shoved in the faces](https://parislemon.com/post/17981627506/its-unnatural?ref=spyglass.org) of billions of users – but apparently there will be a new 'AI Inbox' in the sidebar *above* your regular, old, hated inbox. And in this new inbox you'll find not email, but information. Things you need to know or do, automatically surfaced for you from that dreaded old inbox. The key, of course is Gemini. Google's AI may finally be good enough to fulfill the promise of killing your inbox. Or at least beating it into submission. A place you go from time to time when you want to remember the pain you left behind. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Plenty have promised such solutions in the past. For this to work, it has to be incredibly accurate and useful. It has to overcome old habits and falling back into the "I'll just reply to the email myself" mentality. Sure, it may take just a few seconds to respond to that email, but in aggregate, we're all spending hours every week and as such, days every year on email. Days. Completely consumed by email. Gone, [never to come back](https://500ish.com/our-time-975417579c7c?ref=spyglass.org). Because of the scale of your inbox. Google can use that scale to their advantage to train their AI to make this work. No, they're not reading your emails to do this, but using other signals and data at scale to construct this new type of inbox. Honestly, they may be the only ones who can do this. And if they do, it's step one to a potential true end of email. I mean, it will always stay around as a sort of fall-back – a true cockroach of the internet – but the way you interact with it will change drastically. I wrote about this topic last June in a post entitled: [**With AI, Email May Actually Morph Into a Task List**](https://spyglass.org/with-ai-email-may-actually-morph-into-a-task-list/). A couple passages I'll highlight since it was for members of [The Inner Ring](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/): > Moving this concept over to email, if AI can write your email and read your email, it's easy now to joke that in many jobs, such as the ones I've done in my career, you could just go on vacation. Of course, you couldn't really do that for the same reason as mentioned above: at some point, someone – a human – has to be in the loop about something. I mean, honestly, for a lot of email back-and-forths, probably not – but for some, there are real-world tasks to be completed. By someone. One day, bots – robots – may be able to handle those too. But in the more immediate future, I think this looks more like emails being distilled into actual action items. > > Yes, your inbox will go from being a de-facto to-do list (generated by someone else), to an actual to-do list (generated by your AI). > > To some, this will sound like absolute hell. But I suspect it may lead to actual productivity gains for most people because again, the scaling of the email inbox has become untenable. Boiling email down to its essence could work. That's what Google is creating here with 'AI Inbox'. But again, it's just step one. The next step is obviously using AI Agents to do many of these tasks/to-dos created,[2](#two) including responding to the messages: > Anyway, the point is that I can see a world where AI actually does lead to the end of email, in a way. It won't eliminate it, but it could eliminate your need to do it. Or, at the very least, cut back on it quite a bit because it will be abstracted into an AI layer above it, where you talk to your AI assistant about tasks and to-dos. Sure, you'll still be able to send it, but it will be more like disengaging the autopilot to fly manually. For most things, it will become something the bots do on your behalf. Speaking of Agents: > And this antiquated technology could become the ultimate fallback for "agentic" communication when various [newer protocols](https://afar.spyglass.org/p/cue-sunk-my-battleship?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Microsoft%20adopting%20Google%E2%80%99s%20standard%20for%20AI%20agents%20to%20connect%20means%20one%20thing%3A%20we%E2%80%99re%20getting%20closer%20to%20the%20world%20I%20envision%20of%20bots%20thanking%20bots%2C%20almost%20exactly%20a%20decade%20ago.%20%5BTechCrunch%5D) don't align for whatever reason. In many ways, email already is that fallback for many things today. Being the cockroach of the internet has some advantages... Wouldn't that be fun? A sort of "have your agent email my agent"...[3](#three) **One more thing:** even beyond the whole end-of-email thing, there's another upside I see here, a broader one: > To others, this will sound downright dystopian. We're taking human-written email and turning it into bulleted action items generated by AI. But again, it feels inevitable. And, in many ways, needed. > > Oddly, it may lead to a world in which letters – old school letters – make a comeback. I've long been of the notion that I think one of the second order effects of AI is that [human-made creations will \*increase\* in value](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/), and we might see something along these lines with handwritten notes. > > Yes, this may lead to a new sub-economy where people are paid to write these personalized notes a la Theodore Twombly in 'Her'. Yes, this is [a 'Her' reference](https://spyglass.org/a-movie-script-ending/) without [mentioning Samantha](https://spyglass.org/scarlett-letters/). Until now. Damnit. Killing email to restore [the value of writing](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) to humanity. Who says no? --- 1 I'm sure some have hated email longer than [I have](https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/06/i-wouldnt-say-ive-been-missing-it/?ref=spyglass.org), but [I'm](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/02/inbox-10000/?ref=spyglass.org) [very](https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/11/the-medium-is-the-message/?ref=spyglass.org) [well](https://parislemon.com/post/73047961333/yes-another-email-rant?ref=spyglass.org) [documented](https://500ish.com/email-the-micro-meetings-eating-our-days-f5e9864047e1?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) 2 [We used to call these "bots" part 1.](https://500ish.com/a-chicken-in-every-bot-6393516068b9?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 3 [We used to call these "bots" part 2.](https://500ish.com/bots-thanking-bots-cdd467cdd18b?ref=spyglass.org#.fyck59epi) [↩](#) ### Microsoft's Would-Have-Been $30B "Hackquisition" of OpenAI URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-almost-acquistion-openai/ Last updated: 2026-03-09T15:03:00.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-7--2026--11_36_36-AM-2.png) When looking back at the origins of the "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" model for acquiring startups, Microsoft was clearly the godfather of such deals. [Their March 2024 deal](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) to *not* buy Inflection, but instead to bring on much of their team was groundbreaking in this regard, and it has [led basically all](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/) of [their rivals](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/) to [copy](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) ([or expand upon](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/)) the [same general structure](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/).[1](#one) But actually, there was almost a "hackquisition" that Microsoft did before the Inflection deal... OpenAI. I've [long thought](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) that the Inflection deal structure, and thus, the "hackquisition", was born out of a deal Microsoft nearly had to execute under duress. In November 2023, OpenAI's board ousted CEO Sam Altman and the ensuing weekend saw Microsoft, led by Satya Nadella on down, scramble to save the situation. The company had invested around $13B into OpenAI at the time – a lot of money in those days[2](#two) – and they were worried it was going to go to zero overnight.[3](#three) So they implemented a plan. Either OpenAI would reinstate Altman, or Microsoft would just hire the entire company.[4](#four) Sound familiar? But wait, don't "hackquisitions" also involve some level of IP rights? You know, "non-exclusive licensing agreements"? For show, if nothing else? Yeah, Microsoft didn't need those here because they already had far more rights to OpenAI's IP, thanks to their deal terms following their massive investments. So yes, this would have been the first "hackquisition". And now we know how much it would have cost. Thanks to text messages from OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap, uncovered as part of Elon Musk's lawsuit [against](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/) the company, to Nadella and Altman, we have the number. $25B. Or $29B if they wanted to include Ilya Sutskever. Which of course Microsoft would have, but given his role in said coup d'état of Altman, it's not clear that would have happened... As relayed by [Rocket Drew of *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/ilya-sutskever-4-billion-vested-openai-equity-2023?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > Lightcap disclosed Sutskever’s financial stake after the OpenAI board fired CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella prepared to hire Altman and OpenAI colleagues. Lightcap wrote to Altman and Nadella that paying OpenAI employees for their equity would require $25 billion excluding Sutskever’s equity, or $29 billion including Sutskever’s vested units. (It’s not clear how much Sutskever had in unvested equity.) > > The day following the exchange, Microsoft chief technology officer Kevin Scott said publicly that Microsoft would hire and match the compensation of every OpenAI employee who chose to resign from the startup, in the event that Altman was not reinstated at OpenAI. Those hires never happened because the OpenAI board rehired Altman later that night. So yeah, Microsoft would have paid at least $25B, and perhaps $29B to do that would-have-been "hackquisition". That's not too surprising since OpenAI was valued at... $29B during secondary sales that were taking place at the time. But the math wouldn't have been quite that straightforward. The key bit to remember here is that no one actually owned equity in OpenAI at the time. This was long before [the conversion to the public benefit corporation](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/), and everyone from Microsoft on down simply had percentages of the rights to future profits. Microsoft was clearly willing to "true up" those employees and match the on-paper value, and seemingly assume that those employee shares equated to 100% ownership of the company. Of course, there were other investors in OpenAI, even beyond Microsoft. So the bigger question remains if they would have given those other investors anything.[5](#five) That is, of course, another key component to the "hackquisition", paying out investors to ensure they go along with the deal. Given how freaked out those investors were during "The Blip", it seems reasonable to think they believed they'd be getting *nothing* for their investments. But it's also probably reasonable to think that Microsoft would have given them *something* to avoid future litigation, if nothing else. Again, [this is what Microsoft did with Inflection investors several months later](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/). And if that's the case, that probably would have pushed the deal well past $30B – especially if you consider compensation for Altman, who famously had no direct equity – or even "Profit Participation Units" – in OpenAI at the time (and apparently still doesn't). But if Sutskever was going to get $4B... Microsoft probably would have wanted to keep Altman happy, in order to keep him. Anyway, there was one massive shareholder Microsoft didn't need to pay out: Microsoft. Everyone now knows they own 27% of OpenAI, but again, [at the time no one had any equity](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/). Microsoft had the right to 49% of those profits (though actually a much higher percentage until their initial investment was paid back) and undoubtedly could have and would have argued that meant they "owned" 49% of the company. [Unless it was regulators who were asking](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-ftc/). Had anyone else tried to "hackquire" – or even *actually acquire* – OpenAI, they probably would have wanted at least $15B for their troubles, if not more. And it highlights just how killer of a deal Microsoft would have gotten here. Call it $30B - $35B to effectively buy OpenAI in late 2023. Given that the company is currently raising [around an $850B valuation](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Worth%20Way%20More%20Than%20%24800B) just over two years later... Alas, by the end of the weekend, Altman was back in place atop OpenAI and "The Blip" was just that, a blip. This is clearly the outcome Nadella and Microsoft wanted, undoubtedly due to regulatory concerns if nothing else. But the mad scramble also pretty clearly planted the seed that would grow into the "hackquisition" model. **One more thing:** if Sutskever's stake was worth $4B back at that $29B valuation, the simple math indicates it would be worth $117.2B at that $850B valuation. Of course, per above, it's not that simple. For one thing, there's been a lot of subsequent funding – to say the least! – and thus, dilution since then. For another, there was that whole conversion of the company to a public benefit corporation, which also turned the profit share percentages into actual equity – we know how Microsoft converted (from 49% of profit shares to 27% of equity), but we don't know how anyone else converted. Sutskever also stayed another six months at OpenAI after "The Blip" so he undoubtedly vested more equity before he was [off to start Safe Superintelligence](https://spyglass.org/safe-superintelligence-openai/). Anyway, his equity could be worth anywhere from tens of billions all the way up to $100B – assuming he hasn't sold in any of these tenders... ****Update:** A few people have noted it's probably not reasonable to think that Sutskever actually holds over 10% of OpenAI equity now – again, it depends on dilution and how the equity converted from those profit-share agreements. He seemingly **did* hold over that amount of the company – or at least the employee portion – per these texts. Anyway, I updated the wording a bit to hopefully make it more clear. --- **Update January 8, 2026**: Further testimony and messages reveal even more about Satya Nadella's motivations after Sam Altman was ousted: [he was teriffied](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/musk-pushed-openai-link-microsoft-called-amazons-bezos-tool?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) that Altman and Greg Brockman might spin-up a competitive lab – epsecially since they were getting calls from the leadership at Google and Meta. So [he quickly had offers drawn up for the pair](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1726509045803336122?s=20&ref=spyglass.org)... --- 1 Notably bringing on board OpenAI co-founder and Inflection CEO Mustafa Suleyman to head up Microsoft's AI efforts, presaging Google doing a similar move with Character.AI's Noam Shazeer and Meta doing that [with Scale AI's Alexandr Wang](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/)... As an aside, the $650M price point seems quaint today! I mean, NVIDIA just did [a "hackquisition" for $20B](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/)! [↩](#) 2 Also sort of wild that Microsoft apparently hasn't really committed more money since that point. Sure, they've "participated" in some subsequent fundraises, but presumably only token amounts. That shows just how clearly [they've outsourced the support of OpenAI to SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) and others post "Blip". [They clearly decided they needed to try to own AI themselves](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/)... [↩](#) 3 To be clear and fair, a lot of that money was in compute credits, and future capital commits. So Microsoft undoubtedly wouldn't have actually *lost* $13B, but still many billions. And arguably a lot more if you take into account where OpenAI is valued today... [↩](#) 4 Well, anyone who wanted to come aboard. Which, judging from the immediate reaction from the employee base, seemed to be pretty much everyone. [↩](#) 5 And I won't even go into the "grants" Elon Musk made to OpenAI at its inception. He clearly – clearly – would be suing Microsoft right now over those, either to block/unwind any deal, or get paid. But it may have been a harder argument without any legal equity conversion... [↩](#) ### Back to Basics Bond URL: https://spyglass.org/back-to-basics-bond/ Last updated: 2026-01-06T23:19:59.000Z [Callum and Dua’s 007 double act? The new bond and songwriter?The quest to find the next James Bond may be over. Sources have told The Mail on Sunday that Callum Turner has been telling friends the role is his.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/180.png)Daily MailHarriet Kean Diary![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/105205687-0-image-m-31_1767471803971.jpg)](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-15431751/Callum-Turner-Dua-Lipa-007-double-act-new-Bond-tipped-write-theme-tune.html?ref=spyglass.org) Yes, I'm linking to *The Daily Mail*. But it's (potentially) [James Bond news](https://spyglass.org/tag/james-bond/), and there's almost certainly some smoke here, if not exactly fire yet: > The quest to find the next [James Bond](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/james-bond/index.html?ref=spyglass.org) may be over. > > Sources have told The Mail on Sunday that Callum Turner – the bookies' odds-on favourite to take over from [Daniel Craig](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/daniel-craig/index.html?ref=spyglass.org) – has been telling friends the role is his. > > One source close to the [Fantastic Beasts](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/fantastic-beasts/index.html?ref=spyglass.org) star said: 'He's been blabbing all over town. Callum is the new Bond, it's been confirmed. Everyone in his circle is talking about it. It's the worst-kept secret going.' Over the past few days, a number of other publications have cited *The Mail's* piece with varying degrees of matter-of-factness. But Jordan Ruimy seems to both support/augment the reporting with [his own for *World of Reel*](https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/1/5/callum-turner-as-james-bond-rumor-isnt-letting-up-with-jacob-elordi-still-in-play?ref=spyglass.org): > Over the weekend, I reached out to my strongest 007 source to ask about these latest rumors, and it turns out there is some truth to them — but, as usual, The Daily Mail is over-reporting what is so far not a done deal. Yes, Turner has caught the attention of Villeneuve and Amazon/MGM, and yes, he is due for a screen test in the coming weeks, but he still hasn’t nabbed the role. Not even close. My source continues to maintain that Jacob Elordi remains in the mix as another potential candidate. > > The fact remains: Villeneuve is currently in post-production on “Dune: Part Three” and won’t commit to any actor until that picture is locked. It was [previously known](https://mgsiegler.substack.com/p/down-bad?utm%5Fsource=substack&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=169817351&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcontent=share&utm%5Fcampaign=email-share&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=As%20for%20the%20next%20Bond%20actor%20%E2%80%94%20that%20process%20is%20on%20hold%20while%20Villeneuve%20focuses%20on%20Dune%20Part%20III%2C%20despite%20Vegas%20oddsmakers%20continuing%20to%20love%20Aaron%20Taylor%2DJohnson%20for%20the%20role.%20He%20might%20be%20older%20than%20what%20they%E2%80%99re%20looking%20for%20by%20the%20time%20the%20actual%20cameras%20get%20rolling%3F%20%5BTHR%5D) that Villeneuve wouldn't commit to picking the next Bond until *Dune 3* was wrapped. It's possible he made a move/met with Turner after filming wrapped, but they're clearly still in post-production for his massive blockbuster due out in less than a year. Steven Knight is [undoubtedly busy writing](https://mgsiegler.substack.com/p/down-bad?utm%5Fsource=substack&publication%5Fid=4805853&post%5Fid=169817351&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcontent=share&utm%5Fcampaign=email-share&isFreemail=false&r=1em7l&triedRedirect=true#:~:text=Denis%20Villeneuve%E2%80%99s%20Bond%20finds%20its%20writer%20in%20Steven%20Knight%20%E2%80%94%20best%20known%20as%20the%20writer/creator%20of%20Peaky%20Blinders.%20His%20film%20screenplays%20include%20Dirty%20Pretty%20Things%20and%20Eastern%20Promises%2C%20which%20should%20make%20for%20an%20interesting%20potential%20mix%20for%20James%20Bond!%20He%E2%80%99s%20clearly%20excited.%20%5BDeadline%5D) *Bond 26*, so it's certainly possible that he's taking some meetings [for Amazon](https://spyglass.org/license-to-shop/) – which is [still a weird thing to write](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/). Regardless, Turner clearly has to be the favorite at this point, and while a studio *obviously* shouldn't make such a decision based on the actor's fiancé... well, it can't hurt to have Dua Lipa perfectly teed up for a theme song? That's just a fun added wrinkle to all of this. Aaron Taylor-Johnson also has [a talented partner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam%5FTaylor-Johnson?ref=spyglass.org), but her skillset, directing, [is covered here](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/)... Interestingly, Turner and Taylor-Johnson – [long the front-runner based on clearly also premature reports/rumors](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) – are the same age at 35\. (Turner is about four months older.) That is also pretty much the perfect age for James Bond per Ian Fleming's novels. And that's perhaps more important than usual here as: > Knight is rumored to be drawing heavily from Fleming’s earliest novels, which could signal an ‘origin’ Bond — revisiting his Royal Navy background, his recruitment into MI6, and his eventual attainment of ‘00’ status. The story could even be set in the ’50s or ’60s. This is an angle that a lot of people, myself included, have long been clamoring for. The Bond-trying-to-make-his-way-in-the-modern-age trope has been well overplayed at this point. Why not take him back in time. We know Knight is good with period pieces – the *Peaky Blinders* movie is due in two months – Villeneuve would be a total wildcard there. [His movies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis%5FVilleneuve?ref=spyglass.org) are all contemporary or *Blade Runner 2049*, or well, *Dune*. Jacob Elordi is an interesting wild card here. Few actors (outside of the decidedly non-British Timothée Chalamet) have more buzz around them at the moment. But he may be a click too young for the role at just 28\. Yes, he's technically Australian – but so was George Lazenby – and Elordi certainly plays English well enough. So perhaps Elordi finds himself in a Pierce Brosnan situation, where he reports back for his mission at a later time... Anyway, I'll just note that I (almost quite literally) ran into Callum Turner on the streets of London a few weeks back after a Chelsea match ([he's a diehard fan](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-15423755/Chelsea-fan-Callum-Turner-fumes-Premier-League-rivals-Arsenal-thrash-Aston-Villa-fianc-e-Gunners-fan-Dua-Lipa-shrieks-delight.html?ref=spyglass.org)).[1](#one) So while I liked the idea of Taylor-Johnson, I'm in favor of this, if it happens. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [A Bond for the (Correct) Ages?Aaron Taylor-Johnson Offered James Bond Role Reportedly will “sign contract this week” The Sun Howell Davies & Ellie Henman At last, some spy news on Spyglass. With the very real caveat that I’m linking to a UK tabloid (owned by News Corp) and that even they are couching this news with![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-846.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/skynews-aaron-taylor-johnson_6494660-1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) [Live and Let BuyJames Bond now fully works for Amazon. Die Another Same Day Delivery?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-848.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_james_bond_delivering_a_package_cartoon_--ar_21_--profi_cc863c9f-e2bf-40e8-bc04-ccf5aefb40f3_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) [Dr. YesWith Denis Villeneuve, James Bond enters his Auteur Era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-847.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a5b3210f-dcbf-4c5b-95fd-dc62fa328410-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) --- 1 Awkward since [Dua Lipa is an Arsenal supporter](https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/37771487/dua-lipa-callum-turner-arsenal-aston-villa/?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) ### Microsoft 365 XP Copilot 3.11 for Workgroups Office 2024 app URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-office-brand-ruined/ Last updated: 2026-03-09T15:02:23.000Z [No, Microsoft didn’t rebrand Office to Microsoft 365 CopilotMicrosoft’s Office website is confusing the internet![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-49.png)The VergeTom Warren![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/officeicons.jpg)](https://www.theverge.com/tech/856149/microsoft-365-office-rebrand-copilot?ref=spyglass.org) Undoubtedly knowing [my](https://500ish.com/xbox-series-xbox-one-360-s-e-x-6d723a0c6059?ref=spyglass.org) [longstanding](https://techcrunch.com/2010/08/27/windows-live-meh/?ref=spyglass.org) [love](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/) [of](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) [all](https://spyglass.org/los-angeles-titanics/) [things](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/) [branding](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/), several people pinged me about [the notion](https://x.com/vxunderground/status/2008229485993488549?ref=spyglass.org) that the company was seemingly rebranding 'Office' to 'Microsoft 365 Copilot app'. Yes, seriously, the main landing page on office.com says exactly this right up top: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-06-at-11.02.14---AM.png) I love everything about this page, from the peachy tones and 2020-style ombré to the simple asterisk footnote denoter.[1](#one) Mainly I love that [it's confusing as fuck](https://x.com/stevesi/status/2008246297288208792?ref=spyglass.org). It's perhaps the most Microsoftian branding exercise yet! Because Microsoft is not actually rebranding Office to 'Microsoft 365 Copilot app' – at least not the Office you're thinking about. As Tom Warren explains: > As much as Microsoft loves to shove its Copilot branding everywhere, Office hasn’t been renamed to “Microsoft 365 Copilot app.” > > The confusion comes from Microsoft’s own [Office.com](https://www.office.com/?ref=spyglass.org) domain, which for the past year has acted as a way to push businesses and consumers to use the Microsoft 365 Copilot app. This app is a hub app that provides access to Copilot, as well as all the Office apps. Microsoft used to call this app simply Office, before the company [rebranded Office to Microsoft 365](https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/13/23402155/microsoft-office-microsoft-365-rename-branding-changes?ref=spyglass.org) in 2022. First and foremost, 'Office' is a great brand and name for a product suite. I'm not being flippant – it's up there with 'Windows' for perhaps the only good bit of branding that Microsoft has ever done.[2](#two) Equally impressive is the office.com domain – a killer domain that's super simple to remember, assuming you're using it to direct people to said Office suite of products online... But no, apparently you're not. Because you decided that everything which AI touches within Microsoft needs to be rebranded as "Copilot", even, and perhaps especially when it makes no sense. Juice that usage, baby. And so the great office.com domain became the hub for the Microsoft 365 Copilot app,[3](#three) which itself is a hub for both Copilot (which you're undoubtedly not looking for) and the Office suite of apps (which you're undoubtedly looking for). > That mention of “formerly Office” is Microsoft referring to the very old [Office app that launched in 2019](https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/20/18233518/microsoft-office-app-windows-10-features?ref=spyglass.org) as a way to try and convince people to use online versions of Word, Excel, and PowerPoint. Until a year ago it used to be called the Microsoft 365 app. Microsoft then [announced it was rebranding](https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/19/24300584/the-microsoft-365-app-icon-is-changing-for-some-reason?ref=spyglass.org) its Microsoft 365 app in November 2024 to a Copilot one, which I and everyone else were very confused at. The new app icon and name — Microsoft 365 Copilot — then [rolled out](https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/the-microsoft-365-app-transition-to-the-microsoft-365-copilot-app-22eac811-08d6-4df3-92dd-77f193e354a5?ref=spyglass.org) on January 15th last year to Windows, iOS, and Android users. So yes, that beyond confusing statement is just meant to say that *the online version of Office*, which used to be called 'Office' but stopped being called 'Office' in the push to use the '365' branding ahead of the push to use the 'Copilot' branding, now uses both '365' and 'Copilot' in its branding – also 'app' lol – which actually happened about a year ago, but no one knows why.[4](#four) You could do [a whole George Washington *SNL* skit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org) about such decisions. All of this still resides on office.com, mind you. Perhaps microsoft365copilotapp.com was taken.[5](#five) There's always [.net though](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.NET%5FFramework?ref=spyglass.org). --- 1 That footnote, by the way, reads: "Copilot Chat in the Microsoft 365 Copilot app is available for Microsoft 365 Enterprise, Academic, SMB, Personal and Family subscribers with a work, education, or personal account. It is available in these supported languages: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/supported-languages." Nearly absolute repetitive gibberish. [↩](#) 2 Though shout-out to [the OG heavy metal logo that rocked](https://logovent.com/blog/microsoft-logos/?ref=spyglass.org), hard. [↩](#) 3 Special shout-out to the Microsoft 365 Copilot app logo, [which looks like](https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/19/24300584/the-microsoft-365-app-icon-is-changing-for-some-reason?ref=spyglass.org) a motorway sign: "M365". [↩](#) 4 Odds that Microsoft [pivots from the 'Copilot' branding, at least for consumers, in 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/#:~:text=Meta%20and%20Microsoft%20reboot%20their%20AI%20efforts%20%E2%80%93%20again)? Pretty high, I think. [↩](#) 5 We see you, [Satya](https://spyglass.org/decidedly-not-live-from-ces/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%9D%20Satya%20Nadella%20Blogs). [↩](#) ### Signal: Decidedly Not Live from CES... 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/decidedly-not-live-from-ces/ Last updated: 2026-01-06T10:38:24.000Z ...and we're back. Happy 2026 everyone. And Happy Endless-Barrage-of-CES-Posts in all of your feeds, if you celebrate. [Which I do not](https://techcrunch.com/2013/01/07/should-i-tag-this-post-with-ces-too-or-will-sponsors-bail/?ref=spyglass.org). Last week, [I sent out some predictions for 2026](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/), and a few days before that, [looked back on the 2025 predictions](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/). Below, some other things I wrote over the break. The **Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [NVIDIA’s Christmas Eve ‘Hackquisition’ MiracleNVIDIA gets a creator of the TPU, access to inference tech & IP, and stops anyone else from getting such things. All for a mere $20B…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-839.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-25--2025--06_46_06-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) [Manus: The Hands of AI FateMeta acquires an AI business model…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-843.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-30--2025--03_09_26-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) [Apple’s ‘Pluribus’ SlopAs season one ends, it’s unclear if Apple shared AI slop or if they’re just sloppy, or both, or neither. What if they’re allegorically subversive?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-840.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G85WZn6XMAEUsPq-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/) [Clever ClicksA physical keyboard for the iPhone that might actually make sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-844.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/6957fc10ba2de3fdc96c9a66_clicks-jan-26-hero-1-3.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/clever-clicks-smartphone-accessory/) [Stranger Things Have Happened Than Netflix’s Theatrical Success‘Stranger Things’ makes a killing in movie theaters, duh…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-841.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-2--2026--03_46_17-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/) --- ### I Note... **📝** [**Satya Nadella Blogs**](https://snscratchpad.com/posts/looking-ahead-2026/?ref=spyglass.org) – To me, the content is less interesting – AI is gonna be big in 2026, you heard it here first! Though I do appreciate the "scaffolding vs. substitute" & "slop vs. sophistication" framing. And, of course, referencing the "bicycles for the mind" without mentioning you-know-who... – than the meta aspect of Nadella deciding to blog. Presumably, this is an attempt to establish some sort of "thought leadership" position as Microsoft navigates the extremely competitive AI waters. He perhaps even learned a thing or two from his friend Sam Altman, who [oscillates between](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) his own personal blog and OpenAI's official blog – [or even other ones](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/) – seemingly on a whim. To that end, Nadella's post isn't a blog on an official Microsoft site or even Microsoft-owned LinkedIn, where many such thought leader-y posts are born, but instead on "snscratchpad.com" – there wasn't a better URL available?! That perhaps led it to fly under the radar, with [Techmeme just posting it now](https://www.techmeme.com/260105/p3?ref=spyglass.org#a260105p3), even though Nadella [posted this a week ago](https://www.theverge.com/news/852630/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-scratchpad-blog-ai-slop-comments?ref=spyglass.org). Maybe this was a new year's resolution to write more, which I can certainly appreciate! We'll see how long he keeps it up... **\[**[**SN Scratchpad**](https://snscratchpad.com/posts/looking-ahead-2026/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📱** [**OpenAI Latest App Store Attempt**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-apple-app-store-sam-altman-7a9b08ca?ref=spyglass.org) – Rolfe Winkler tried to use some of the initial apps in [ChatGPT’s latest attempt](https://spyglass.org/stop-making-app-stores/) to re-create the magic of the App Store. The result? Predictably not great. OpenAI says it’s early, which it is, but the real issue is how much easier/better it is to use the partners' services via their actual apps and/or websites. The App Store worked because it took advantage of a new device and form factor in the form of the iPhone. OpenAI’s hope here is to leverage the fact that people [already have ChatGPT open](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/), but these other apps really are just a click away, be it in another tab or another app. Which is to say, maybe this strategy works when OpenAI [has their own device](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) (*if* that device [is compelling enough](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)), but then again, Amazon has been trying that for years too [without much success](https://spyglass.org/hey-alexa/)… I can see some business use cases here, but consumer use cases are going to remain a challenge unless OpenAI can figure out something truly novel (perhaps by using ChatGPT’s knowledge about you?)… **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-apple-app-store-sam-altman-7a9b08ca?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📽️** [**Hollywood Had A Slightly Better 2025**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/01/business/cinema-hollywood-2025-ticket-sales.html?ref=spyglass.org) – $8.9B in ticket sales (in the US and Canada) was 2% better than 2024 — but such numbers are *still down over 20% versus the pre-pandemic levels*. And that’s before you take inflation into account. This naturally brings up the "is this the new normal?" question, which it probably is unless Hollywood actually does something to change the equation here. [Netflix could help](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/), but the industry [will do everything in their power](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) to [stop that from happening](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) so… Still, one of [my predictions for the year](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/) is that the 2026 box office will be up pretty significantly, sequentially. And it may even touch those pre-pandemic numbers (again, before inflation). The slate looks *that* strong with franchises galore ([not that those helped much this year](https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/)). But it will likely be a mirage. Real change — reel change? — [remains needed](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/01/business/cinema-hollywood-2025-ticket-sales.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🥽** [**Apple Cuts Vision Pro Production & Marketing**](https://www.ft.com/content/ab817ba1-15ec-473f-b609-5b5016b3258d?ref=spyglass.org) – Many in Apple's orbit seem to be quick to call this latest report a "nothingburger" – mainly in that it's nothing new (IDC's market report notes that Luxshare halted production [last year](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-weak-sales/)), but I would just note that the company *did* ship an updated version of the device since then (also [IDC's sales estimates do keep falling](https://spyglass.org/anemic-vision-pro-sales/) below even their muted expectations). Sure, it was a small spec upgrade, but many Apple updates are and they still manage to move needles year to year – that does not seem to be the case with Vision Pro. IDC believes *they shipped just 45k units in the holiday quarter*; Apple sells something like 600k iPhones and about 60k Macs ***a day***. Still, I think that small update was probably [the right strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-no/) with the product already in market (they should have [launched it as a dev kit](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/), not a full-on consumer product in its current state, but we're way past that now...). Rather than seeing them try to do a lighter/slightly cheaper Vision Pro right now, I'd rather see them meet Meta in the market for Smart Glasses ([which is clearly happening](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/)). And build up from there. There's just still no real market for headsets yet – [Meta dominates it](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/), but even they're [seemingly pulling back](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/). **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/ab817ba1-15ec-473f-b609-5b5016b3258d?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📺** [**Versant Lives!**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/comcast-versant-media-separation-complete-1236464232/?ref=spyglass.org) – And more importantly, the [now-spun-off](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/cue-sunk-my-battleship?ref=spyglass.org) new public company sets a potential price for WBD's television assets, which could ultimately make or break [the Netflix deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/). Right now, Comcast's [old TV assets](https://spyglass.org/ms-now-msnbc/) look to be valued by the market somewhere around $6B. At 4.5x forward-earnings, that would make WBD's assets worth... a lot. But it's not that straightforward because those assets are also going to be saddled with... *a lot of debt*. So at least right now, we're... likely somewhere between what Paramount thinks they are worth and what WBD (and Netflix) thinks they are worth... Funny that. (Don't be shocked if Paramount raises their offer.) **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/comcast-versant-media-separation-complete-1236464232/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "Labubu doesn’t actually have that much of a story behind it, it’s just a strange-looking doll." — **Chris Pereira**, founder of consultancy iMpact, [noting that](https://www.ft.com/content/567140e8-59b1-4742-9fbb-505da5fa4e52?ref=spyglass.org) Pop Mart, the Beijing-based company behind the phenomenon, needs to focus on evolving the brand, lest we hit "Peak Labubu" (which we may have already). Currently, the company is focused on expanding their retail footprint around the world. And yes, [the movie is coming](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/dec/19/labubu-movie-paul-king-to-direct?ref=spyglass.org), directed by *Paddington* helmer Paul King, for Sony… --- ### Asides... - The best performing Big Tech **stock** of 2025? **Alphabet**, up 65% – which was almost entirely in the back-half of the year, [so this was a good call](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/)! **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/2025s-best-performing-tech-stocks?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Still nothing compared to **Sandisk**, up **559%**! Thanks, data centers. - “**Foldy Bird**” is exactly what it sounds like: **Flappy Bird** for **foldable devices**. A clever way to quickly degrade your $1,000+ device… **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2026/01/03/flappy-bird-clone-for-foldables/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Fun profile of **June Paik**, CEO of **Furiosa** – yes, named after the *Mad Max* character – trying to go head-on against NVIDIA with their **RNGD** chip for doing AI inference far more efficiently. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/furiosa-chip-nvidia-challenge-june-paik-5d3dc304?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - A general angle we're clearly going to hear a lot about in 2026, with **energy** build-out **bottlenecks**, [from NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) and [Google on down](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/)... - **Prediction markets** letting you bet on the **housing market**? Isn't that a little too on-the-nose? **\[**[**CoinDesk**](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/01/05/crypto-traders-can-now-speculate-on-housing-prices-through-polymarket?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Just in case you're itching to try out **Alexa+** (it's fine, [if a bit underwhelming](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/)) but don't have the right type of device, everyone now can on the **web**. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/853535/alexa-plus-website-now-available?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **China’s box office** shot up over 20% to $7.4B (roughly $1.5B behind the US per above) — largely on the back of two sequels, one local, one not: *Ne Kha 2* (China’s biggest movie ever at $2.13B) and Disney’s *Zootopia 2* ([now Hollywood's biggest movie in China ever](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/disney-says-zootopia-2-is-china-s-top-hollywood-film-ever?srnd=homepage-americas&ref=spyglass.org)). Both, of course, are animated. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/ne-zha-2-zootopia-2-2025-china-box-office-7-4-billion-1236621734/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... Everyone has long joked about how CBS was the "old person's network", but it really is wild [seeing these two charts side-by-side](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/top-rated-channels-2025-tv-network-ratings-most-watched-1236613231/?ref=spyglass.org). The most popular channels watched by "younger" audiences are almost exactly the opposite of the most popular channels overall. I mean, CBS even lost to a cable channel in ESPN amongst those 18-49! Overall, TV [as we knew it](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) sure seems screwed – hence, spinning out Versant, the WBD channels, etc. How long will [even YouTube TV](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) really want to be in that business? It's increasingly a headache dealing with the channels over carriage fees. And that means constantly having to jack up rates and [piss off customers](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/). Just like the cable companies of old! [As soon as](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) most [live sporting events](https://spyglass.org/amazon-sports-rsn/) are shown [elsewhere](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/)... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/tv.png)](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/top-rated-channels-2025-tv-network-ratings-most-watched-1236613231/?ref=spyglass.org) The **Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. ### Clever Clicks URL: https://spyglass.org/clever-clicks-smartphone-accessory/ Last updated: 2026-01-03T18:24:03.000Z [Clicks is making a magnetic keyboard that slides out from Pixel 10 and any other phoneThe Clicks Keyboard case that revived the experience of using a physical keyboard for modern smartphones is now coming to,…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/9to5-clock-10.svg)9to5GoogleBen Schoon![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/clicks-power-keyboard-4.jpg)](https://9to5google.com/2026/01/02/clicks-is-making-a-magnetic-keyboard-that-slides-out-from-pixel-10-and-any-other-phone/?ref=spyglass.org) Clever girl: > Clicks Power takes the keyboard available in iPhone cases and cases for the Pixel 10 series, Galaxy S25, and Motorola Razr devices and detaches it from the device. Embracing Qi2 and MagSafe, the accessory can be attached to the back of your device and extends outwards to reveal the keyboard when it’s time to use it. > > This new take on Clicks means that you’ll be able to use a physical keyboard through virtually any device. While it’s designed to work with Qi2 and MagSafe, a magnetic case or even an adhesive magnet ring will suffice. The keyboard connects over Bluetooth instead of requiring USB-C/Lightning, meaning it can also be used wirelessly with your phone, or other devices like a tablet, TV, or virtually anything else. Back in 2024, I bought the first product from Clicks, their iPhone case which included a physical keyboard. It was part fun, part ridiculous, but not very practical. Especially if you happened to have an iPhone Pro Max, which made the device so comically long. [I likened it to the real life "Bananaphone"](https://spyglass.org/clicks-iphone-keyboard/), but Raffi's fictional phone would have been arguably more ergonomic. The iPhone + Clicks keyboard was just so incredibly top-heavy. And when you put it in your pocket, well, the jokes write themselves... Anyway, my main thought/feedback at the time [was this](https://spyglass.org/clicks-iphone-keyboard/): > Honestly, I wish Clicks had made a horizontal keyboard. That sounds potentially even more crazy but whenever I'm using this thing, I can't help but feel that an elongated keyboard would both feel better to use in your hands (the vertical keyboard is too narrow for comfortable two-hand use) and would further highlight the freed-up screen real estate. Right now, using the iPhone in landscape mode is a bit silly for everything beyond watching video or playing games. The digital keyboard when used in that position takes up too much screen real estate. A landscape Clicks could and would solve this! > > You can use it horizontally to type now, but it requires even further breaking of your brain to type that way. And it's just even more awkward to hold that way. But a horizontal keyboard at the bottom of the device... I think there's something there. But they also must have thought about this and concluded it wouldn't work well for some reason or reasons. Well, those crazy sonofabitches did it. It's not exactly the case I imagined, it's far smarter than that. By using MagSafe, it can latch on to the back with a keyboard that extends down when you're holding it either vertically or horizontally! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/clicks-power-keyboard-1.webp) The fact that it's a battery pack too giving you an additional 2,150 mAh of capacity – the original Clicks case didn't give you this bonus despite its size – is just icing on the cake. I'm sure the whole package will be a bit unwieldy to carry around on your phone regularly, but as a battery pack – something I almost always have on me anyway – this seems like a great little package in your bag.[1](#one) It's also $109 versus the $159 cost of the original – [or $79 if you pre-order](https://www.clicks.tech/en/powerkeyboard?ref=spyglass.org) ahead of its Spring 2026 ship date, which made it a no-brainer buy to me to try out, if nothing else. I'll report back.[2](#two) **One more thing:** [‘Clicks Communicator’ Unveiled — Will You Carry This With Your iPhone?The company behind the BlackBerry-like Clicks Keyboard accessory for the iPhone today unveiled a new Android 16 smartphone called the Clicks Communicator. The purpose-built device is designed to be used as a second phone alongside your iPhone, with the intended focus being communication over content consumption. It runs a custom Android launcher that offers a curated selection of messaging apps like Telegram, WhatsApp, Slack, and Gmail directly on the home screen.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/icon-2.svg)MacRumorsJoe Rossignol![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Clicks-Communicator-Feature.jpg)](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/01/02/clicks-communicator/?ref=spyglass.org) Um, the Clicks team is *cooking*. At the same time they unveiled the new battery/keyboard accessory, they also unveiled their really big idea/product: > The company behind the [BlackBerry-like Clicks Keyboard accessory](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/01/04/clicks-iphone-keyboard/?ref=spyglass.org) for the iPhone today [unveiled](https://financialpost.com/globe-newswire/clicks-introduces-communicator-a-second-phone-built-for-communication-not-consumption?ref=spyglass.org) a new Android 16 smartphone called the Clicks Communicator. > > The purpose-built device is designed to be used as a second phone alongside your iPhone, with the intended focus being communication over content consumption. It runs a custom Android launcher that offers a curated selection of messaging apps like Telegram, WhatsApp, Slack, and Gmail directly on the home screen. There have been a number of players who have tried to create a "second device" – something you carry alongside your smartphone. In a way, even the device(s) that [OpenAI is working on with Jony Ive](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) is one of these. It's a category that's an acknowledgement that nothing is going to be able to fully replace the smartphone anytime soon, so better to pitch it as a *complement*. None of these have worked to date, but that doesn't mean they will never work, it just means it's a hard sell, literally, because smartphones are already expensive and can technically do everything these complementary devices do – and a lot more, of course. Of course, that's part of the pitch too. The growing desire – at least stated desire – [to breakaway from your smartphone](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) with a purpose-built device that still allows you to do useful things. In this case, email and messaging. Again, it's not a bad pitch, it just never seems to work at scale because again, there's a literal cost associated (and maybe the revealed preference is for one device after all). There are several clever features here like the side button that glows different colors depending on where/who a message is from – something I've long wished Apple could better surface without looking at a notification (they have okay ways to do this with haptics, but this seems smarter/better). And the fact that the whole physical keyboard is touch-enabled (on the top of the keys), so it is effectively a trackpad. Again, [clever](https://spyglass.org/an-ode-to-the-volume-swipe/). Anyway, I'm intrigued by the [Clicks Communicator](https://www.clicksphone.com/en/communicator?ref=spyglass.org) but I'm going to hold off on pre-ordering this one – though there is a deal too, a $199 deposit knocks the total price down to $399 (from the regular $499 price). This will obviously come down to how well both the hardware and software is done. Nailing one of them is hard, nailing both seems almost impossible for all but the biggest/best smartphone makers – and some might say *all but Apple*! But I hope it's great, it could be a fun/useful throwback to the BlackBerry.[3](#three) --- 1 I'm also slightly worried that the add-on covers the lower camera on the iPhone Pro, as you can see [in their announcement video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69VgtIJOtdQ&ref=spyglass.org). Again, maybe not a huge deal if you just plan to use it to type/re-charge. But worth noting... [↩](#) 2 This is not a paid placement, I swear! I'm ordering it just as anyone else can. I'm just excited for their new idea per my critique for their old product. [↩](#) 3 Consider this [another reminder to check out the great 2023 movie about RIM.](https://spyglass.org/blackberry-movie-poaching/) ### Stranger Things Have Happened Than Netflix's Theatrical Success URL: https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-box-office-netflix/ Last updated: 2026-03-05T14:52:07.000Z One of the bigger stories of 2025 in the technology/entertainment overlapping category that I often traverse around these parts was undoubtedly the success of *KPop Demon Hunters* in movie theaters. For one weekend last August, [it topped the box office](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/). And this was big news because *it had already been streaming on Netflix for two months beforehand*. How much did it take in? About $18M. Again, for a movie you could technically watch for "free" at home (assuming you had Netflix, which you undoubtedly did). It was a key data point in showcasing both how [the movie-going experience could evolve](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) and how Netflix's own stance on movie theaters [could as well](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)... Netflix, of course, is now [singing a *very* different tune](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) when it comes to such distribution. That's obviously because they're in the midst of [buying a movie studio](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) – or trying to, [if Paramount](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) and/or the government doesn't get in the way of their deal. And [a big part of that pitch](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) is keeping the Warner Bros theatrical distribution window open for business. Hollywood, naturally, is skeptical – you would be too if the co-CEO of Netflix was [saying things like this mere months ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) – but again, I think [it can actually make sense for Netflix](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) as the company evolves. And now we have another data point. [Here's Anthony D'Alessandro reporting for *Deadline*](https://deadline.com/2026/01/box-office-stranger-things-finale-1236660176/?ref=spyglass.org): > Sources are telling us this morning that the [*Stranger Things*](https://deadline.com/tag/stranger-things/?ref=spyglass.org)finale cleared well north of **$25M**, possibly even **$30M**, in concession cash to movie theaters over its New Year’s Eve and New Years Day play. Of that figure, $15M was generated by the No. 1 circuit, AMC Theaters off an attendance of 753,000\. By comparison, 20th Century Studios’ *Avatar: Fire and Ash,* the No. 1 grossing film of the season, made a combined **$23.7M** over New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Yes, another bit of content that you could technically watch for free from the comfort of your home just made another killing at the box office. Perhaps even slaying the mighty Na'vi of *Avatar* in terms of sales. Even more incredibly, that's from only around 600 locations – *Avatar 3* is playing in closer to *4,000*. Granted, this is all quite convoluted to calculate because of the hoops theaters had to jump through in order to make such sales work: > Exhibition couldn’t charge for tickets to the Netflix event given the cast’s contractual terms for residuals, hence the streamer and circuits got around this by reserving seats with concession vouchers. At AMC theaters, such concession vouchers cost $20 per seat. At 231 locations, AMC had a bit more than a third of the total theater count showing *Stranger Things.* AMC estimates that more than half of all *Stranger Things* fans watched the finale in a movie theater do so at an AMC venue. Still, it's a close-enough proxy for ticket sales to know that *Stranger Things* absolutely killed it in theaters – so much so that AMC had to keep adding screenings to keep up with demand. Oh yes, and this wasn't even technically a movie (though at two hours and eight minutes, it's longer than some of them!), *but a television show*. Whatever that means, these days. Regardless of how you want to caveat them, these numbers are wild. And it shouldn't be too surprising. I've been arguing for years that the streaming services ([and movie theaters](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/)) were just leaving money on the table by not leveraging theatrical distribution for all kinds of content, not just your typical Hollywood movie fare. [As I wrote back in 2019](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org), arguing that HBO should have debuted the final season of *Game of Thrones* in movie theaters: > Imagine if they ran the first episode in theaters only for the first week. Or even just opened it on a Thursday for the weekend before the Sunday premiere on HBO itself. I know I would absolutely go to see it on the big screen. As would many, many others, undoubtedly. Given the near feature-length of the episodes, I would even be fine paying full price for a movie ticket. But even if HBO “only” charged $5-$10 a ticket, how much money would they make? Tens of millions of dollars for sure. Hundreds of millions? Perhaps! > > Just imagine if HBO had opted to open each of the six episodes of this season in this regard. We’re definitely talking hundreds of millions of dollars at that point. Then the question becomes: are we talking billions? Maybe not. Still, that is a lot of money for HBO to leave on the table, all for not doing much beyond some additional marketing and logistics. The complications of selling such tickets (per above) aside, that's basically exactly [what Netflix just did with *Stranger Things*](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/). And it clearly worked to the tune of those tens of millions of dollars. And *Thrones* may very well have garnered even more support at such theaters – especially if they audience didn't yet know [what a belly-flop that final season](https://spyglass.org/remake-game-of-thrones-please/) would prove to be! (I might also just note that Netflix is on the verge of potentially [owning the rights to *Game of Thrones*](https://spyglass.org/game-of-thrones-movie/) along with HBO...) Obviously, some have dabbled with such experiments in the past, but this should be an at-scale operation to take advantage of pent-up demand for certain content and the wide reach/footprint of movie theaters – many of which are partially or even mostly empty when they stick to their first-run-movie-only stances. [It's silly](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/). For some reason we're sticking with the model from a century ago even though all the data points don't just suggest, but *scream* how the world has changed. That's not calling for an end of movies, it's calling for an evolution of their *distribution*. This too has already happened thanks largely to yes, Netflix. To put it as plainly as possible: some movies should go to theaters, but others should go to streaming. And on the flip side, some *shows* should clearly go to theaters! At least for special events like premieres or finales. But depending on the show, perhaps at a regular cadence too! Who cares if they're an hour? That could actually help fill scheduling gaps at theaters... Also, some movies that are hits on streaming should then shift to theaters for "special events" a la *KPop Demon Hunters*. And some hit streaming movies should get sequels that go to theaters (sort of the inverse of the sequel direct-to-video play back in the day). Some hit shows should get movie sequels (which Netflix is doing right now with *Peaky Blinders*). Some movies should get show sequels. Some should go to streaming, some to theaters. Some to both. Literally everything should be on the table. Hollywood hates all of this because it's the end of the movies-must-play-in-movie-theaters religion. But again, that already died in so far as every movie made obviously – [*obviously*](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) – should not play in a movie theater. At least not in wide release! Blasphemy, I know. But the alternative is the death of the entire industry so... At the same time, that doesn't mean theaters are *only* for blockbuster, mega-budget movies. That will [undoubtedly remain](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) the most popular type of theatrical content for obvious reasons, but breakout viral hits can be smaller too. Like *KPop*! I feel as if I'm repeating myself. Because I am. But I also feel the need to keep repeating this until it's the inevitable reality. Movie studios keep releasing movies that are clearly going to bomb at the box office when they should be sending these to streaming.[1](#one) Unsurprisingly, the newer tech players were [quicker to wake up to this reality](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/), but also [shot themselves in the foot](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) perhaps because [they didn't realize](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-wolfs/) that Hollywood [wouldn't see it their way](https://spyglass.org/clooney-pitt-wolfs-apple-theaters/) – the logical way, yes, but also the way that goes against the past century of success for Hollywood. And it's not like the tech players are perfect either! Netflix is sending movies right to streaming when they *clearly* should be playing in theaters first – [like their *Knives Out* hit franchise](https://mgs.blog/netflixs-glass-onion-slays-in-limited-release-6731debe3923?ref=spyglass.org), for example. And *Frankenstein*, which they relented on, [but probably not enough](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/)! Netflix's previous anti-theatrical stance cost them business too in the form of both [movies going elsewhere](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) to ensure a wide theatrical component of their work, but also the talent too. For example, the very creators of *Stranger Things*, The Duffer Brothers, [bailing on Netflix for Paramount](https://deadline.com/2025/08/duffer-brothers-paramount-deal-1236492061/?ref=spyglass.org) (before the whole battle for Warner Bros), supposedly in large part because of the theatrical stance! Which undoubtedly contributed to Netflix's thawing of that stance and thus, this *Stranger Things* big theatrical moment – which in turn is perhaps helping them make the case to buy Warner Bros! **One more thing:** I particularly enjoyed the opening of [the *The Hollywood Reporter* piece](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/stranger-things-finale-new-years-box-office-theaters-amc-1236462588/?ref=spyglass.org) about the *Stranger Things* box office numbers: > [Stranger things](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/stranger-things/?ref=spyglass.org) have happened before when it comes to [Netflix](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/netflix/?ref=spyglass.org) and its often strained relationship with theater owners, but no one could have predicted the two sides would ring out 2025 as the best of frenemies. Really? [*No one*](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)?... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2026/01/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-2--2026--03_37_13-PM-2.png) ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix Thaws Their Theatrical StanceStranger Things. Frankenstein. KPop. Narnia. AMC. Oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-831.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_5a7bwo5a7bwo5a7b-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/) [KPopping Netflix’s Theatrical StanceNetflix just had the number one movie at the box office – yes, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-832.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/p0lq9155-1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-835.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-834.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--15.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-830.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) --- 1 And sometimes simply opening a movie wide for a week – obviously almost always the biggest draw anyway – and the pushing it right to streaming [could work well too](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/)! [↩](#) ### 10 Big Predictions for 2026 URL: https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2026/ Last updated: 2026-08-03T10:28:10.000Z Here we are again, the final day of the year. [Just like last year](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/), I thought I'd use the countdown to 2026 to jot down some predictions. Last year, I thought most of my predictions wouldn't happen, [but actually many ended up being at least partially correct](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/), so I'll go back to the Google days and take that to mean my OKRs weren't ambitious enough. I'll try to aim a bit higher/harder this year... 1. **The 'iPhone Fold' is a big hit at launch** – While it may not seem like a stretch to say that an Apple product will be a hit, actually Apple has a pretty poor track record when it comes to first iterations of devices in recent years – see: [iPhone Air](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/), [Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/), even the Apple Watch wasn't a blockbuster out of the gate.[1](#one) But I think the iPhone Fold could break that trend and not just because it's Apple's take on a category which is growing, though not yet massive in "foldables". I suspect Apple's entry will be a bit different than what [others have been doing](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/). It will be Apple's first phone that's not just a rectangular slab – and it may not even be a rectangle at all, with [a rumored 4:3 ratio](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLiz-FQfb2s&ref=spyglass.org)?! In our world of ever-growing screen sizes, that could be a welcomed change. And when unfolded, it could be more akin to an iPad mini, a device [I've long loved](https://500ish.com/the-wonderful-ipad-mini-once-again-pops-up-its-sporadic-head-7cf65ce81f30?ref=spyglass.org) but hasn't caught on in the way the regular iPads have. Would it run iOS? iPadOS? Some sort of new hybrid? And what if Apple has a special, new accessory built for it? Given that it's likely to launch towards the end of the year, we won't have a ton of sales data on the device by year end (and it may be constrained anyway), but I'm guessing the buzz will be huge – despite [the huge price tag of $2,000+](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/)... 2. **Troubles at TikTok** – While the deal to sell the US entity to a group of investors has been [cleared by the company](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B9%20TikTok%20Signs%20Away%20US%20Entity), China still has not signed off. You'd think ByteDance wouldn't push forward without such assurances but, well, geopolitics are complicated, especially with the Trump administration. Still, let's assume the ([comically cheap](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/)) deal gets done. What happens next? My bet is that things are fine for a bit, [but then issues start to creep in](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) at the edges. The strange deal structure with profits going back to the parent company may complicate any future deal structures and that may make it hard to keep employees around long term. That may include the current US leadership, as they're now basically owned by a hybrid of private equity, a decidedly non-US fund, and Oracle. I'm also not sure that alleviates the political pressure and there will be whispers of China still being involved behind-the-scenes. Can YouTube and Instagram take advantage of such chaos? We'll see... 3. **No major AI IPOs happen in the US** – While things are seemingly gangbusters in the Asian stock markets right now and there's a lot of talk about the big US players prepping for IPOs in 2026, I would bet ***none*** end up actually going out before the clock strikes 2027\. All eyes, as always, [are on OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/), but I would bet they're still tapping the private capital wells – and will become the first $1T private company (consider it a sub-prediction, which [they're not far from already](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Worth%20Way%20More%20Than%20%24800B) – but can they beat SpaceX to this punch, maybe if SpaceX actually does go public?). Anthropic could push down on the gas to try to [beat OpenAI out of the gates](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/), putting more pressure on their rival, but I also think they'll run a bit longer in the private markets. There might be smaller players that try to get out, maybe through reverse mergers or whatnot, but I don't think we get the blockbuster one. A lot of this is macro-dependent of course, and it just [feels like](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) it will be more turbulent in 2026... 4. **Meta and Microsoft reboot their AI efforts – again** – When Microsoft pulled off the first "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" in the form of [their Inflection deal](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/), it was clear Satya Nadella felt it was a needed gamble to hedge against their OpenAI bet, which became problematic after "The Blip". In March, we'll hit the two year anniversary of that deal and Mustafa Suleyman being charged with getting Microsoft some sort of traction in AI. With [the new OpenAI arrangement](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) giving Microsoft more flexibility, Nadella – [now in "founder mode"](https://www.ft.com/content/255dbecc-5c57-4928-824f-b3f2d764f635?ref=spyglass.org) – is clearly going to want to see some results, *fast*. I don't see that happening so... do they make another big hackqusition? Do something else to try to vault into the race? Meanwhile, Meta obviously [just made one](https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/) such deal – a [second one](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/) – to try to catch up in AI after [dropping the ball with Llama](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). I [remain skeptical](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) that they can just [buy their way back in](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/). And if it's not working, how fast does Mark Zuckerberg act yet again? *Another* deal?... 5. **Someone buys Perplexity** – Perhaps related to the above, I could see Meta or Microsoft making a move, though I think Samsung is the most likely candidate given [their partnership/integration](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/). I [no longer](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) think it will [be Apple](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/), or they would have [done it already](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/). Nor do I think Google will come knocking after [the Chrome stunt](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/). NVIDIA could be a wild card, if they decide they want to combat their partners [continually](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) building their own chips by more directly operating at the AI software level... Regardless, we may be on the verge of a wave of AI players being scooped up as the state of the art keeps shifting... 6. **An online betting/gambling reckoning** – I think the biggest issues may surface with the proliferation of sports gambling online, but the new "prediction markets" could be the factor that pushes the looming problems over the edge. If Polymarket and Kalshi get into a DraftKings vs. FanDuel all-out marketing war trying to stake their claims, we could see fallout even faster... 7. **Netflix & Warner Bros fend off Paramount Skydance but don't seal the deal** – Pretty self-explanatory. I think [Netflix and Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) will be able to fend off the hostile takeover attempt [by Paramount Skydance](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/), but I also think there will be major regulatory pressure that keeps the deal from actually closing in the Q3 2026 timeframe. In fact, I'd take 2026 off the table entirely as there are so many different groups in both Hollywood and politics (not to mention Europe) that will clearly oppose the deal [as hard and as loud as they can](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). Will they be able to get it done in 2027? I think a lot of it will depend [on YouTube](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/). If [their domination of video](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) continues and [spreads further](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) into the living room (and into more professional content), it should eventually help the deal get done... 8. **A box office boom, but...** – Spider-Man, Avengers, Hunger Games, Jumanji, Toy Story, Shrek, Mandalorian (and Grogu), Mario, Minions, Moana, Michael Jackson, Narnia, Odyssey, Dune, Steven Spielberg back with aliens – even if all of them don't hit (Supergirl?), enough of them will to boost the box office results for 2026, perhaps even past the pre-pandemic levels *finally* (not counting for inflation, [because Hollywood ridiculously never seems to](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/)...). Everyone will trumpet the return of movie theaters, and yet it won't change any of the [longer-term trends](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) and [issues](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) with the [industry](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/). Of course, we won't be able to see that fully until 2027 and beyond... 9. **Tesla stalls** – Anything involving Elon Musk is always a tricky prediction because what buoys his empire, at least from a stock/valuation-perspective – is less about fundamentals and more about I don't know, vibes, I guess. A new grand vision every quarter. While his timelines [are almost always off](https://spyglass.org/teslas-tenuous-timelines/), he's also always been able to paint [new pictures of promises](https://spyglass.org/tesla-cybercab/) even further off – but the key is also doing actually incredible things from time to time. 2026 could be a challenge with such narratives if actual car sales keep falling and the robotaxi fleet can't scale to meet Waymo in market. Proclamations about Optimus will continue, but what will [we actually *see* next year](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%BE%20All%20Hands%20on%20Deck%20for%20Optimus)? Does the narrative shift to merging xAI into the empire? Something with SpaceX as it gears up to go public? What is left in the bag?... 10. **Tech starts to turn on Trump** – This one is inevitable, it's just a matter of timing. Once we pass the mid-terms, will that be the moment? It depends on those outcomes, I suppose. It could very well be until 2027 when President Trump's lame-duck status is secured (well, one presumes!) that we all start to experience major whiplash from how fast tech starts to backtrack from their Trump-friendly positions and rhetoric. No more [golden trinkets](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/). No more [revenue shares](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/). No more [stakes in companies](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/). The distancing will begin, as will the general excuse that "we were only playing the game on the field". But it will be a delicate dance with tech's own JD Vance as the would-be heir apparent... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [10 Big Predictions for 2025One of which may actually happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-828.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_2025_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_ac39eaaa-8b05-4b54-9f96-14739040d5b4_3-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) [2025 Predictions RevisitedAs we head into 2026, a look back at 2025... 🔮![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-829.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-29--2025--03_43_22-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/) --- 1 I also have a "one more thing" prediction that's carrying over from last year, because the device was delayed, that the 'HomePad' won't be a big hit out of the gate... [↩](#) ### Manus: The Hands of AI Fate URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-manus-deal/ Last updated: 2026-03-03T19:01:53.000Z Between [Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) and [Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/), I think it was a pretty close call in terms of which Big Tech company had the worse 2025 when it came to AI. Both had to completely overhaul their approaches after embarrassments. But only one has had to [spend billions](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/), let alone [tens of billions](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/), and perhaps [*hundreds* of billions](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) to correct the mistakes – at least so far.[1](#one) And so Meta clearly wanted to end their no-good-very-bad-year on a high note. [As Angel Au-Yeung, Raffaele Huang, and Kate Clark report for *WSJ*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-buys-ai-startup-manus-adding-millions-of-paying-users-f1dc7ef8?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta has agreed to acquire AI startup Manus, a Singapore-based company with Chinese founders that conducts deep research and performs other tasks for paying users. > > Meta is closing the deal at more than $2 billion, according to people familiar with the acquisition. Manus was seeking a fresh round of fundraising with a valuation of $2 billion when Meta approached the startup, some of the people said. Given that Manus is apparently [well past $100M in ARR](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-29/meta-acquires-startup-manus-to-bolster-ai-business?ref=spyglass.org) and still growing fast, such valuations seem almost [reasonable](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/). Then again, the Chinese origins of the parent company, Butterfly Effect, have long lingered over the company, presumably even with an official move to Singapore. As such, Meta perhaps smelled an opportunity. One that helps their AI narrative, at least from a business-perspective, immediately. While their Big Tech peers, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are all monetizing their AI initiatives both through upselling their cloud offerings and by selling the AI products directly to customers, Meta is doing neither. At best, they're indirectly monetizing their AI by leveraging it to bolster their existing businesses in ads – but those others are doing that as well. So it's sort of a tough sell to Wall Street, if nothing else, especially when your AI build-out spend is on par with those players – or even *higher* when it comes to things [like compensation](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/). And unlike the nearly $15B Scale deal, where [a "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) saw them acquire only 49% of that business, Meta gets the whole enchilada here. That is to say, they're buying the *actual* business, which gives them an AI business overnight: > Meta says it plans to continue to operate and sell Manus’s service and integrate it into its suite of social-media products. Meta has previously touted so-called open source models that are largely free to access, modify or distribute. > > “We plan to scale this service to many more businesses,” Meta said in its announcement about the deal. Okay, but does that mean *Meta's* businesses or the businesses of *others*? Well, their own post on the deal seems to answer that right in the title, "[Manus Joins Meta: Accelerating AI Innovation for Businesses](https://www.facebook.com/business/news/manus-joins-meta-accelerating-ai-innovation-for-businesses)": > We are excited to announce that [Manus](https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmanus.im%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAYnJpZBExeGE2blZ3Y3JqRUh5cnVsTXNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDI1NjI4MTA0MDU1OAABHmJD8tEveuEFoUy7VrWpGowUudW2%5F65cSN-IovlIMx24KZTqwv9VEwdC7pPQ%5Faem%5Fi3mdLxFEi1SFic0Bqg8EiQ&h=AT0aQ3DxkKwJ87JbXgGMibVSZjRfliSdJAIDiBBQPiwykazCHUcef7NlUrsCTFGYbxLVeDhPvxuyPwBc1lZrp-z5vw55453flQGA7qGH%5FrxQYHVZtbHSloMqLrg6v8ihIxgBq5c&ref=spyglass.org) is joining Meta to bring a leading agent to billions of people and unlock opportunities for businesses across our products. Translation: Meta just bought into the enterprise market! Now, whether or not other businesses will want to buy enterprise offerings from Meta is another matter. But I suspect keeping the separate Manus branding, with the Meta firepower and resources behind the scenes, could help them here. They'll undoubtedly still face the same challenges that others trying to break into enterprise sales run into, from Google on down. Selling into enterprise is just a different beast which requires different muscles. It took Google bringing on board Thomas Kurian from Oracle for this to truly work (with the necessary growing pains along the way). With that in mind: > Manus’s co-founder and chief executive, Xiao Hong, who often goes by the nickname “Red,” will report to Javier Olivan, chief operating officer of Meta, some of the people said. When you hear that Meta is doing another massive AI deal, you would obviously assume it's to bolster the AI group now being run under former Scale chief Alexandr Wang. But again, this deal is different – it's a deal to create a new business arm of AI, so reporting to the COO makes sense. At the same time, the tech Manus has built can obviously help Meta's other AI efforts, including across their consumer-facing products. The core Manus product is well-regarded by many thanks to its agentic-first approach. But they also don't run on their own models, but instead, use multiple models from the likes of Anthropic and Alibaba. Will that continue under Meta? Meta would undoubtedly love that, but will those other companies that compete more directly with Meta? Unclear. Regardless, eventually, one would assume that Meta would want their own new models helping to power Manus. So all of this plays into Meta's broader AI ambitions and goals as well. And the company undoubtedly wanted to make that clear by having [Wang tweet his excitement about the deal](https://x.com/alexandr%5Fwang/status/2005766469771223106?ref=spyglass.org), lest you think this is [yet another sign of internal turmoil within Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/). This deal seemingly makes a lot of sense for Meta on a few fronts. And it also may point to the start of a renewed push into enterprise. Again, easier said than done, but don't be shocked if this is a wedge of sorts. If they can keep Manus expanding into businesses, we should see other Meta cloud offerings follow, putting them more in line with those aforementioned Big Tech peers.[2](#two) And perhaps easing some concerns Wall Street has with regard to their AI spend. Meta has, of course, tried this push into eterprise before in ways – from Workplace on down – [but it hasn't really worked](https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/16/with-the-end-of-workspace-its-fair-to-wonder-if-meta-was-ever-serious-about-the-enterprise/?ref=spyglass.org). But [buying up](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) a hot product, team, and tech is what Meta does best! [Just ask the FTC](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/)...[3](#three) **One more thing:** As for those China-ties, consider them completely severed. [As Yifan Yu and Cissy Zhou report for *Nikkei Asia*](https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/artificial-intelligence/meta-says-ai-startup-manus-to-cut-china-ties-after-acquisition?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta says it will acquire AI startup Manus and that the Singapore-based company will no longer have any Chinese ownership or operations in China after the deal, while a source close to the matter put the value of the transaction at between $2 billion and $3 billion. What at first looked like a [questionable decision](https://www.semafor.com/article/05/09/2025/us-treasury-examining-benchmark-capitals-ties-to-chinese-startup-manus-ai?ref=spyglass.org) by Benchmark to [invest in Butterfly Effect](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-25/chinese-ai-startup-manus-scores-funding-at-500-million-value?ref=spyglass.org) given the geopolitical risk, METAmorphosing into a savvy bet and quick exit. --- 1 While [Apple did *zero* large AI deals in 2025](https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/), Meta ended up doing two... [↩](#) 2 Moves which [OpenAI is already talking about making](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) as well, clearly as a preview to help justify their own AI spend... [↩](#) 3 [Just in case my title (and image) make zero sense to you...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manos:%5FThe%5FHands%5Fof%5FFate?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) ### 2025 Predictions Revisited URL: https://spyglass.org/2025-predictions-revisited/ Last updated: 2026-03-03T19:01:39.000Z Last year, while trying to kill time waiting to ring in the new year, [I jotted down ten predictions that I thought might come to pass in 2025](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/). Actually, I thought most of them wouldn't, but I thought they *could*. Here we are with only a few days left in the year, so let's check back in, before jotting down some new ones for 2026... > **Apple buys an AI company** –As we enter 2025, the consensus view on Apple's initial foray into AI seems to be indifferent at best and [underwhelmed](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-is-here-kinda/) at worst. As Siri herself starts to get real upgrades in 2025, that could change a bit. But Apple is running a race quite slowly – [too slowly](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) – behind folks who are doing laps much faster. One way to leap ahead would be to buy a player. Apple famously doesn't do a lot of splashy M&A but perhaps an exception could be made for a Mistral or a Perplexity. Who knows if Apple would even be allowed to buy the former given their war with the EU. But the latter could be interesting in particular in light of the [impending end](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) of the Google default search deal/payments... My first prediction – the one I was probably most confident in! – is the one that absolutely did *not* happen. To be fair, I do believe that Apple bought up some companies for the AI talent, but [I was also clearly thinking](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) this would be [a larger deal](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/). And as we got into 2025, it became clear to many people why [Apple might want/need](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) to do such a deal. My "something is wrong with Apple AI" vibes were absolutely correct, clearly. And Apple apparently at least thought about a bit deal too – [hello, Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) – but ultimately decided against it; something [I eventually talked myself into](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) as well – especially given the prospects of [a Google partnership](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/), which should come into play in early 2026, [to bolster Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/). *Finally*. Anyway, smaller deals and simply *thinking* about doing larger ones don't give me a passing grade here. **Grade: D+** > **Someone buys Warner Bros Discovery** – David Zaslav clearly – *clearly* – wants to do a deal. But the music is slowing down and other players are already finding seats to the point where it's looking more like he won't be able to find a partner to buy as much as he'll be the one selling. Perhaps it's just some assets – CNN and/or HBO? – or maybe it's the whole thing. If the M&A environment truly is about to thaw, Comcast or someone else could make a move. Might [Paramount aim to bulk up even more](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) post-Skydance deal? And of course, I'm always trying to come up with ways [for Apple to spend money](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/), per above. It does [make some sense](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/)... While I guessed that it might be Skydance, fresh off of the Paramount deal – [a good guess, if I do say so myself!](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) – it was actually [Netflix that bought Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/). Okay, technically the deal hasn't closed. And probably won't [for months](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) – if not [*years*](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/). I mean, it obviously [may never happen](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/). Or Paramount Skydance may yet get that [last laugh](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). But still, at least right now on paper, I nailed this: **Grade: A** > **Intel gets bailed out** – We'll see what ends up happening with the CHIPS Act under the new Trump administration, but regardless, I have a hard time believing they're going to just let Intel wither on the vine. Enabling/bolstering a true American player in chips is a win, no matter the political party. Could a new administration help broker a deal to get, say, [Microsoft to support the rejuvenation of Intel](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/)? First things, first, Intel needs to put in place a new leadership team. I'll keep my ([early](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-022/#:~:text=As%20for%20the,too%20risk%2Daverse...)) money [on Lip-Bu Tan here](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-023/#:~:text=As%20I%20guessed,ago.%20%5BReuters%5D) – *if* he can [overhaul the entire board](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside-gelsinger/) as well... We can argue the definition of a "bail out" I suppose. But at the highest level, clearly the government [not only investing in Intel](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/), but *becoming their largest shareholder*, seems like it should qualify for my notion. Further, that support clearly got others on board as well – both SoftBank and NVIDIA with money, and [rumors of Apple](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) and [others](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) looking at Intel for [their manufacturing needs](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/). And I think I get some bonus points for [correctly predicting Lip-Bu Tan](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/) as the next CEO of Intel. **Grade: A-** > **Elon Musk bails on the White House** – I'm a bit torn on [which side will sour on the other first here](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/), but I'll go with Elon getting fed up with all the in-fighting – [which we're seeing already, of course](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/27/tech/maga-musk-x-visas/index.html?ref=spyglass.org) – and bureaucracy. He'll say the whole thing is fucked and go back to trying to bring about change in his more insurgent manner, by shitposting on Xitter. There are many reasons for him to hang on as long as he can – [billions, in fact](https://spyglass.org/america-has-been-acquired/) – but perhaps he'll pre-empt a move by Trump here. There can be only one main character, after all. And he only shares the spotlight [for so long](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/)... The only issue here remains the question of who dumped whom in the breakup which was [utterly](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%95%20Inside%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20Plan%20for%20DOGE%20to%20Slash%20Government%20Costs) [predictable](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/doge-days-of-bummer?ref=spyglass.org). "Vibes" suggest it was more Trump (or his inner circle) that got sick of Elon, but there was obviously annoyances [the other way](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/stacked?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=The%20%E2%80%9CMission%3A%20Accomplished,.%20%5BNYT%5D) as well. (And [clearly](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/stacked?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Speaking%20of%2C%20the,%3F!%29%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), Tesla shareholders wanted him back and focused on at least *one* of his companies.) After Elon went nuclear a few times on Trump on Xitter, and Trump responded with reminders of [who has the real control](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/), the two seem to have reached some sort of détente. **Grade: B** > **Amazon's Alexa overhaul proves less than "remarkable"** – Not exactly shocking given all [the reports](https://spyglass.org/remarkable-alexa/) and the fact that that project [has clearly](https://spyglass.org/remarkable-alexa-event/) been [delayed multiple times](https://spyglass.org/unremarkable-alexa/) already. But I just have this feeling that Amazon is going to have a hell of a time trying to convince the world that a new Alexa is above and beyond the old Alexa – let alone worth *paying* for. Their previous success with the Echo devices [is their undoing here](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/). Might it push them [ever closer to Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-golden-fork-amazon/) as a result? The pieces are [already in place](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-alexa/) for that relationship to be the new [Microsoft/OpenAI marriage](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/)... Yeah, I mean, after [a grandiose unveiling](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) that [reeked of over-hype](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/), it took *forever* for Amazon to actually roll Alexa+ out to [a meaningful swath of the user base](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/). Once they did... the silence is sort of deafening. I have it now, it's... fine. A less impressive version of ChatGPT or Gemini mixed with a more capable Alexa (though in some ways, the new functionality is predictably *less* capable, [or at least stable](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/)). Still, it's nice to have conversational AI scattered in *some* rooms around my home (because it's still not on every Alexa device). But not the game-changing transformation that had Panos Panay getting [emotional](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/). As for that Amazon/Anthropic [relationship](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/), it's getting... [complicated](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/) in ways that really does have [echoes](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) of Microsoft/OpenAI! **Grade: B+** > **Microsoft and OpenAI kiss and make up, or break up** – It all comes down to the negotiations to turn OpenAI [into a for-profit company](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit/). Assuming this happens, and Microsoft gets [a massive](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/) (actual) equity stake as a result, I think that plus the continued [floundering](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) of their own consumer AI efforts will lead to a re-kindling of [the relationship](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/). Oh yes, and the fact that OpenAI still needs [another $20B+](https://spyglass.org/openai-magic-money-mountain/) or so to make their AGI dreams come true. [SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-018/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Gets,price.%20%5BCNBC%5D) and the sovereigns can help, but they still need a true American Big Tech™ partner to compete with Google and DeepMind here. If/when the for-profit status comes into effect and the relationship is rekindled, OpenAI should shoot past a $200B valuation in new tender offers. If [the rift](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) instead deepens and Microsoft and OpenAI break up [in the name of independence](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/), look for the former to be involved in [a deal to buy TikTok](https://spyglass.org/might-microsoft-make-another-run-at-tiktok/)... This is a tricky one to grade since they [technically did kiss and make up](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) in order to seal OpenAI's deal to transition into a PBC – thus securing Microsoft's 27% stake – but it's not like they're fully back in love. Instead, [Microsoft made their moves early in the year](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) to pretty much fully outsource any OpenAI growth commitments to SoftBank. At the same time, this frees up Microsoft to more fully and openly compete with their partner, both with their own internal push for [AGI/Superintelligence](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) but also by [partnering](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) with other OpenAI rivals [like Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/). Still, it's not like it's a full break-up of the relationship. Again, Microsoft owns a massive 27% chunk of OpenAI. It remains... complicated. Anyway, having just unwound one insanely expensive deal, it didn't seem like Microsoft was in a hurry to jump into [the TikTok deal](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) (again) – though [they seemingly did debate it](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-tiktok-oracle-deal/)! (I would also just note that it's also not fully clear who the owners of [that mysterious 5% equity slug](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B9%20TikTok%20Signs%20Away%20US%20Entity) are yet...) Anyway, mainly I'm annoyed for drastically underselling OpenAI's would-be valuation. $200B? [They shot past that](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) *one month into the year*. [Try $500B](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/) now. With talk of new money coming in [at $850B](https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Worth%20Way%20More%20Than%20%24800B)! **Grade: C+** > **NVIDIA comes back to Earth, a bit** – Overall, there's almost no way that [Blackwell isn't a massive hit](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-blackwell-gpus/) for the company. To say there's pent-up demand undersells it, and these will certainly not be undersold! But I also wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA's overall numbers are more muted in 2025 than people may think due to supply and complexity issues. But more so I'd chalk this prediction up to the law of large numbers simply [catching up](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-stock-whiplash/) with NVIDIA. They can't keep growing as they have, so simply awesome growth will have to do instead of *bonkers* growth. Also, what if they're not as dominant in AI inference as they have been in pre-training? And, of course, everyone – including all of their major partners – are now sprinting full speed to try to [diversify away from the reliance](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/). Still, that's probably much further off than 2025\. Again, this year already seems pretty signed and sealed... Another tricky one to grade since it's both right and wrong. From a market cap perspective, NVIDIA has [fallen a bit](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) – from the $5T highs down to a "mere" $4.6T to end the year – but they're also well ahead of where they were a year ago (and still ahead of everyone else). The earnings remain great – [they even managed to reaccelerate last quarter!](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) – but yes, investors are getting a little more cautious on their numbers given the above (natural) issues. And mainly, there's [growing concerns](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) about the ["AI Bubble"](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/) in general. [The shorts are out!](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) But the main ["vibe"](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) I think I got correct here is around Google's TPU chips as [an up-and-coming challenger](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/). They're not going to displace NVIDIA's place at the top any time soon, but they could eat into some of the business. And yes, [their last-minute $20B Groq deal](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/) seems to be about both snuffing that out while also ensuring they don't lose out on the growing inference wave. **Grade: C+** > **Threads passes Xitter in active users** – This seems to be more a matter of ["when" not "if"](https://spyglass.org/is-xitter-dying/) at this point. But while early models suggested it may take a few years, Meta is seemingly getting more aggressive when it comes to growth. A few more turns of their dials and I bet they pass Xitter this year. Bluesky will continue growing too, but I don't think they will be able to compete with the growth engines and talents (and [cloning capabilities](https://spyglass.org/threads-vs-bluesky/)) that Meta possesses – even if they're [making more of the right moves](https://spyglass.org/bluesky-is-twitters-heir-apparent/) in the space... This sort of happened. On mobile, [by some metrics](https://www.fastcompany.com/91384230/meta-threads-just-achieved-its-biggest-milestone-yet?ref=spyglass.org), Threads is now bigger than Xitter at least in terms of DAUs. By other counts, [it's *very* close](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/10/as-x-loses-its-ceo-daily-usage-is-down-and-competition-is-growing/?ref=spyglass.org). But on the web, it almost certainly is not. Overall? It's hard to say for sure, but most estimates still have Xitter ahead by around 100M (MAUs) or so. Call it 500M to 400M (maybe as much as 600M to 350M or maybe as little as 450M to 400M). Close, but no cigar. Also, it seems like Xitter [may be](https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1965421715732759000?ref=spyglass.org) growing again, so it's a matter of if Threads can keep up the faster growth rate in 2026 to fully overtake them. Will [the merger with xAI](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) help or be a distraction? Is this whole thing just gonna be a part of Tesla and/or SpaceX one day anyway? As for Bluesky, that prediction seems accurate: still growing, but not nearly at the rate of Threads. **Grade: C** > **Google starts to feel real pressure on search** – This is a tricky prediction to make because everyone makes it every year – *and has for years*. And yet it's never true. But I do think that the various AI players may finally start to make some inroads here in 2025\. And that could also be related to the end of the default search contracts – that will undoubtedly be [tied up in courts for years](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/), but just the threat of it [may open some players](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) – like Apple – to start to look at other options here. Perhaps this is just anecdotal, but I'm using ChatGPT for *a lot* more queries these days... Of course, Google could combat this with [a bold placement for Gemini](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-035-on-to-25/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%8E%20Google%20Plans,scale...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)... Even though Google continues to [maintain](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/) that Search is healthy and there's "nothing to see here", simply watching their [actions](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) – or [listening to Apple exec Eddy Cue, under oath, no less](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) – would seem to [suggest otherwise](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/). 2025 was the year that Google pivoted hard to shove AI into basically every surface of Search. And it seems to be working – as [OpenAI's "Code Red" at the end of the year](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) is testament to. While the judge in the antitrust case altered the details of the default search deals a bit, he ultimately allowed such deals to stay in place – a huge win for both [Google and Apple (and Mozilla)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/). Why? [Largely thanks to](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) the looming threat of AI disrupting everything, of course. So yeah, this one feels mostly correct. **Grade: A-** > **Mark Zuckerberg unchained** – While it [all felt](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/) a bit [too calculated](https://spyglass.org/metas-frenetic-connect-keynote/) for my taste, the "Zuckaissance" of 2024 was nevertheless impressive. But come on, this is PR 101\. The media builds someone up to then knock them down. Zuck has lived this cycle a few times now and he's due to be knocked down again after a year of the press eating up [the gold chains](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-009/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8E%A4%20Mark%20Zuckerberg,Painful.%20%5BNYT%5D) and [wakeboarding](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/). Not even [sucking up to](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) the incoming president can stop this inevitability. It's just a question of *what* causes the backlash. Something with Llama? Instagram? WhatsApp? Good old Facebook? [Something political?](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/) Maybe [flooding](https://spyglass.org/artificial-unintelligence/) all [our feeds](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-everywhere/) with [AI bot](https://spyglass.org/bots-on-bots/) [nonsense](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/)? Anyway, this knock down needs to happen in 2025 to get ahead of the next Zuck build up as the "Orion" AR glasses get closer to launch... It [took a whole week](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-speech-about-face-book/) for the 10th and final prediction for 2025 to start coming true. After a 2024 in which Mark Zuckerberg seemingly got endless love in the press and was riding high, 2025 was indeed the knock-down, wake-up call. Beyond the blowback he got (from both sides) for his political wishy-washy-ness, he also got served a huge piece of humble pie in the form of his AI ambitions for Meta. Once Llama 4 failed to compete with (let alone overtake) their main competitors in AI, Zuck had to [spend billions](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) to blow up their efforts and start over. Maybe it works, but [I'm skeptical](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). Regardless, it's [a bad look](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/) when you spent the previous year [talking up the importance of "open source" AI](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/), then you basically [throw that out the window](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) to bring on a team aspiring to build behind closed doors – which is also seemingly [causing a lot of internal strife](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/), as you might imagine. But hey, could have been worse: they could have lost [their own antitrust case](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) and been forced to [sell/spin-off Instagram](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/) and/or WhatsApp. But the FTC's case was so weak that [the judge sort of laughed it off](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/). As a result, Meta's stock, which ended up slightly for the year, could have fared far worse – especially with Wall Street growing skeptical of [their CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) in particular. That is, of course, also [why we're seeing](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) Meta start to [pivot away from the metaverse](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/). Awk. **Grade: A** **One more thing:** I also had a bonus bet... > **One more thing:** My bet would be that after some strong [initial buzz](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/) amongst the Apple diehards – including myself – [Apple's new 'FacePod' home hub thing](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) fails to catch on in a major way as well. Beyond people who buy everything Apple – again, that's me – it's not clear what it will be used for. Though I'm not sure how much it will matter as it's just an initial attempt to [enter the home](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/) in a major way (well, beyond HomePod, I guess), but still, if it's not a hit out of the gate, there will be pressure on Apple following [the fizzle](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) of the first Vision Pro as well... It's true that Apple's 'FacePod'/'HomePad' failed to catch on – because they never shipped it. It was seemingly delayed as a result of [the AI fiasco](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) and should instead [come early next year](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8F%A1%20Apple%20Home%20Products%20Come%20More%20Into%20Focus). I'm still skeptical of the device, so let's call this a "push" for now. --- Overall, ChatGPT tells me my GPA would be 2.96\. We'll round up slightly for a solid B on the year. I also went ahead and [published a page with a running tally of predictions](https://spyglass.org/i-was-right/) throughout the year. Well, the correct ones, at least 😝. On to 2026 🥂. [10 Big Predictions for 2025One of which may actually happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-825.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_2025_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_ac39eaaa-8b05-4b54-9f96-14739040d5b4_3-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) [I Was Right...On the final day of 2024, I made 10 predictions for 2025 that proved to be quite accurate. But I also sprinkle such predictions in posts throughout the year on Spyglass... Amazon Investing in OpenAI On November 18, 2025, I wrote: It also sure feels like with this latest news![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-826.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--08_34_31-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/i-was-right/) ### Apple's 'Pluribus' Slop URL: https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/ Last updated: 2026-03-02T17:14:30.000Z 😊 Some mild spoilers for **Pluribus* season one lay ahead, proceed with caution if you're not caught up... This is the way season one ends. Not with a bang but... the ominous sign of a bang. I enjoyed season one of *Pluribus*. I wouldn't say I *loved* it,[1](#one) but I found it to be an interesting change of pace, quite literally, from many of the other shows currently on TV – by which I mainly mean [streaming](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/), of course. It's sort of wild to me that it's apparently Apple's most popular show yet, at least [by some early measurements](https://deadline.com/2025/11/pluribus-launch-ratings-apple-tv-drama-series-record-1236625239/?ref=spyglass.org), because it certainly doesn't *seem* like the kind of show that would be wildly popular. Then again, it's [all relative](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) and [especially with](https://spyglass.org/ted-lasso-numbers/) Apple TV – [the artist formerly known as 'Apple TV+'](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) – as their most popular shows still tend to not be nearly as popular as the most popular shows on other streamers, simply [given Apple TV's relative size](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/).[2](#two) Anyway, overall I liked it. There are some mild *Breaking Bad* vibes as you'd expect from [Vince Gilligan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince%5FGilligan?ref=spyglass.org),[3](#three) but a lot of that is mainly in the setting and subtly comedic tone. A few of the episodes have some major pacing issues in my book, but I understand that this is where people will yell about not appreciating the art. I mean sure, I get that, but I personally found it weird to veer from a science fiction tone to a full-on zombie apocalypse tone to a muted – again, quite literally – quest for groceries to a vision quest in the jungle to a sort of *Eat, Pray, Love* – a romance with a robot that predictably morphed into *Sleeping with the Enemy*... I loved the *extremely* contemplative *Train Dreams* – it's probably my second favorite film of the year [after *One Battle After Another*](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/) – but that had the same general vibe throughout. I found it hard to find my bearings with *Pluribus*. So I went on my own side quest, as it were, trying to look for clues as to how the show [could be an allegory for our Age of AI](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/). I realize this may be problematic simply due to the timing of *when* Gilligan was writing the first season, but still... I swear there are signs. Earlier today, John Gruber wrote about Tim Cook's seemingly odd and perhaps tone deaf tweet about the season's finale. Noting that, "[Tim Cook Posts AI Slop in Christmas Message on Twitter/X, Ostensibly to Promote ‘Pluribus’](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/12/27/slopibus?ref=spyglass.org)", Gruber notes the inconsistencies in the image, which seems especially odd when you consider the Apple TV account's retweet of Cook's message: > [The Apple TV X account retweeted Cook](https://x.com/appletv/status/2003927243245203539?ref=spyglass.org), and added a credit: “We thought you might like this festive artwork by Keith Thomson, made on MacBook Pro.” > > Apple didn’t tag the “Keith Thomson” who supposedly created this artwork for them, but if it’s [this Keith Thomson](https://www.keiththomsonart.com/?ref=spyglass.org), Apple must have somehow fallen for a scam, because *that* Keith Thomson’s published paintings are wonderful. The “K Thomson” signature is at least sorta kinda like [that Keith Thomson’s signature](https://x.com/flyosity/status/2004010434844938312?ref=spyglass.org) on Apple’s sloppy illustration — but not *really* the same. (I like a bunch of the paintings from that Keith Thomson, and love a few of them, but [this one in particular](https://www.keiththomsonart.com/?itemId=id1bethwvp1f2b3fsm5np1sg5i9p50&ref=spyglass.org) feels like it was made just for me. It’s perfect.) This seems far too obvious to be a mistake/blunder on Apple's part. And [the actual full message](https://x.com/appletv/status/2003927243245203539?ref=spyglass.org) I think makes it clear this is some sort of commentary. This isn't a message and image for you or me, it's for... > Hi, Carol. > We thought you might like this festive artwork by Keith Thomson, made on MacBook Pro. It reads as Apple channeling their inner "They" to suggest that Carol might like a new work by a famous artist. Of course, in the universe of the show that artist is presumably one of "Them" so he would be incapable of creating something wholly new and original, but instead would perhaps give an output based on the collective knowledge of Thomson's work. Would They/Them hallucinate some strange inconsistencies as the AI still does in our real world? Who knows – because we don't fully understand what causes them in our actual models because we don't fully understand the outputs. Of course, this may break down if you consider that They/Them don't refer to themselves as any one individual. So unless Keith Thomson is somehow one of those on Earth not infected/turned (which seems impossible given what we know about the remaining people), it's weird they'd call him out. Then again, we know that Carol prefers that They/Them still refer to themselves as individuals, as she makes clear to Zosia. So perhaps this is just the collective trying to send Carol a Christmas message they think she'd appreciate. Another interpretation might be that They/Them are *actually using AI* (on that MacBook Pro) to create the image. And maybe they're even having the body of Keith Thomson create it, so technically it is "by Keith Thomson". Keith Thomson using AI to produce art that's like Keith Thomson's art because it's trained on Keith Thomson's art. How's that for a mindfuck? I'm sure I'm reading wayyyy too much into that tweet (and retweet), but given [my previous post about *Pluribus* as an AI allegory](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/), I think it's sort of interesting to think about in that context. The reality is that multiple things may be true, Gilligan could have written the show without knowing it would be a commentary on generative AI, but as that technology came into focus, and as they started making the show, perhaps he's leaning into that theme. There are undoubtedly broader themes too about hive minds and whatnot, but... I'm sticking to my story for now. We'll see what season 2 brings, but I would also just note the fears that AI can bring about the end of the world, while Carol has the Collective bring her a literal atom bomb... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [‘Pluribus’ as AI AllegoryNot sure that was the intent, but it feels like a commentary on LLMs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-823.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/pluribus-button-1759334370303-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/) --- 1 I'm also [on the record noting](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-043-bromo-sapiens/#:~:text=it%20always%20does...-,I%20Spy...,-Given%20how%20much) that I don't love *Severance*, which is far more blasphemous, I know. I've tried to get into *four* different times now and just can't. Something about it irks me... [↩](#) 2 This is [*still*](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) confusing as all hell to write out because Apple TV, of course, is also a set top box and an app, on top of being a service. Like, which one am I talking about here? They really should rename at least the puck. Even just to 'Apple TV Puck' or the more bland 'Apple TV Box' would be fine. 'Apple TV Set' would be a fun throw-back, but maybe confusing too – in an age where ads and bloatware are increasingly being thrown on to screens by TV manufacturers, [I still want an *actual* Apple television](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/). [↩](#) 3 Like everyone else on the planet, I loved *Breaking Bad* yet somehow have never gotten around to watching *Better Call Saul*. I mention this simply because I know this is where most people know Rhea Seehorn from leading up to *Pluribus*. [↩](#) ### NVIDIA’s Christmas Eve 'Hackquisition' Miracle URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-groq-deal/ Last updated: 2026-03-02T17:14:15.000Z Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a... wait. What's that? Is that Jensen Huang scurrying around doing deals over the holidays?! It sure is! Well, presumably he had been working on the deal with the specialized AI chip startup Groq before the holidays started. But I also wouldn't rule out that this deal came together in a hurry given what we know about how he's operated in the past with some mega deals, such as the um, [(up to) $100B investment in OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/). A deal which came together quickly, perhaps on a trip with a certain President, and perhaps right after the rumors of OpenAI potentially looking at a deal with Google to use their TPUs – we'll come back to that. It was also a deal which was announced [*three months ago*](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) but apparently still has not been finalized, by the way, so there's that. Anyway, you can't help but wonder if the real key for the timing here may have been to bury it under the spirit of Christmas. Because boy is it a doozy. *CNBC* first broke the news with the headline: ["Nvidia buying AI chip startup Groq for about $20 billion in its largest acquisition on record"](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/24/nvidia-buying-ai-chip-startup-groq-for-about-20-billion-biggest-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org). But as it turns out, that wasn't quite right. And actually, it was *NVIDIA* that wanted to make that clear. They weren't *buying* Groq, they were merely *paying* Groq that $20B for a ["non-exclusive licensing agreement"](https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-and-nvidia-enter-non-exclusive-inference-technology-licensing-agreement-to-accelerate-ai-inference-at-global-scale?ref=spyglass.org). Oh, you've heard that terminology before? Of course you have. It's the magical incantation one must cite in order to summon the spirits of the "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)". With this deal, NVIDIA is following their Big Tech brethren down this now well-trodden path. [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/), [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/), [Google](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/), [Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/), and [NVIDIA](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/18/nvidia-spent-over-900-million-on-enfabrica-ceo-ai-startup-technology.html?ref=spyglass.org) have done deals which aren't technically acquisitions, but effectively are. Because they allow the acquiring – sorry, *non-acquiring* – company to sort of pick and choose what they want from the acquired – sorry, *non-acquired* – company in exchange for considerations that can go to... well, sort of anyone they choose. Certainly the investors to get them to sign off on such deals, and often the key employees at those companies. Sometimes the other employees of the companies too, but that's mainly so they don't feel bad and/or raise a stink about the faux-deal. Because when they do that, [all hell tends to break loose](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/), at least from a PR-perspective. Anyway, the first wave of "hackquisitions" were almost [more like "hackquihires"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) because they were simply a way to get access to key talent at those companies and any licensing agreements were seemingly an excuse to make it all a little less blatant. But as such deals have grown in size, they've grown to look even more like actual acquisitions. For example, [Meta's nearly-$15B deal with Scale.ai](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) bought them 49% of that company alongside their key talent, namely CEO Alexandr Wang. Why? Presumably Meta wanted more for that amount of money and they thought Scale, a hot company at the time, might still give them some upside. Of course, they were also effectively gutting said company and it seems decidedly less hot now – especially since many of their customers were Meta competitors who no longer wanted to send their data to Scale – shocking, I know. Still, Meta also likely believed they could use Scale's service to help with their future model training – efforts which were rebooting alongside bringing Wang on board. NVIDIA's Groq deal seemingly has similarities. Namely, the key was clearly to bring CEO Jonathan Ross on board. And every story also points to company president Sunny Madra being crucial as well. But beyond that, it sounds like NVIDIA may actually care about some of the IP rights here (which they're presumably getting a license to with their "non-exclusive licensing agreement"), to be able to leverage Groq's techniques in would-be future chips. In that way, "non-exclusive" feels less important here – that's another framing to make it seem less like an acquisition, but is anyone else really getting access to this IP now? Regardless, NVIDIA probably feels confident that with Ross and Madra – not to mention their own in-house prowess – they'll be able to implement it and execute upon it far better than anyone else. And they're undoubtedly not wrong. And that points to another layer to this as well. Ross is not just a co-founder of Groq, he's also the creator of the TPU – something which he cites [in his own bio](https://x.com/JonathanRoss321?ref=spyglass.org). You may recall the TPU was last a part of a major news cycle [when Jensen Huang was "delighted" about Google's success](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) with their AI chips. How do I know that NVIDIA is actually not so "delighted" about Google's success here and is in fact sweating the rise of the TPU? Well, this deal, for one! NVIDIA is paying $20B to grab some talent and license some tech. **Twenty billion dollars**. It's one of the largest deals of *any sort* in the history of deals. And they're technically acquiring nothing. Granted, Groq's technology and first batch of chips have been [divisive](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ai-chipmaker-groq-slashes-projections-soon-sharing-investors?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) in the industry. Some seem certain they're the future of inference, others aren't sure they're the future of anything. Maybe NVIDIA is fully bought in on the former, or maybe they simply want access to key talent that created the TPU – and, importantly, to keep them away from anyone else who might try to make their own XPUs. Many are trying, of course. But only Google has really found some level of success thus far. But that level of success has seen them not only train their own state-of-the-art models to rival any of those trained on NVIDIA chips, but also now growing talk about how much more efficient the TPU is versus the GPU. In an era of growing energy fears, this is... potentially a real problem for NVIDIA. To the point where they probably need to have their own TPU-like option – even if they remain fully committed to their GPUs as being the bigger and better option. Certainly they need to counter this narrative on the inference side. And again, that's where Groq was focused. Maybe their chips were legit, maybe they weren't, or maybe they weren't *yet*, but even $20B is a relatively small price to pay to effectively lock this team and tech up. NVIDIA made $32B in profit last quarter. This potentially helps them protect those profits. Speaking of... one can't help but wonder if this isn't the "hackquisition" that breaks the regulators' back, as it were. They've looked into these deals before and largely haven't pursued them. But this is a situation where a "regular" acquisition between NVIDIA and Groq almost certainly would have been blocked simply because NVIDIA [controls over 90% of the AI chip market](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/business/nvidia-groq-chips-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org). So what will regulators do here? Certainly it seems smart of Jensen to try this under the current administration versus any other. It's a group that keeps trying to help him out with China – [for a fee, naturally](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) – even if China continues to be a problem on their end. Regardless – and this [remains](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168381892/blitzhire-acqusitions?ref=spyglass.org) a key to these "hackqusitions" – NVIDIA will get access to Groq and their team [*fast*](https://medium.com/@villispeaks/the-blitzhire-acquisition-e39361ed00bb?ref=spyglass.org) with this structure. Will anyone even remember the $20B deal after the holidays? Nothing like some last-minute Christmas shopping! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-820.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) [An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google ‘Hackqusition’...A rough few weeks may signal some real talent trouble for OpenAI – at the worst possible time![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-821.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_picture_of_many_different_hands_trading_money_waterco_af8bc984-c043-4956-9b77-7ce521e86dce_3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) [Behold: the HackquisitionAn acquisition by any other name…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-822.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-29-Painting-3-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/) ### Signal: End of the 2025 Line 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-end-of-2025/ Last updated: 2025-12-19T17:55:55.000Z Twas the week before Christmas... and I'm emptying my notebook below before I'm back on the road for a couple weeks. Writing here and there, as always. Including looking back at [last year's predictions](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) – trying to give Apple a few more days to pull off #1! For now, there's a lot below. Happy Holidays. 🍻 --- ### The Inner Ring... [Conflicts & Interests in AI\*Of course\* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-807.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--12_46_38-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-806.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) [The AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-808.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-18--2025--10_29_01-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/) --- ### I Note... **📹** [**TikTok Signs Away US Entity**](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/tiktok-sale?ref=spyglass.org) – Technically, the deal still isn't done. It's set to close on January 22, 2026 and presumably China (or the Trump administration) could still kill it in some way. But presumably TikTok wouldn't have signed without China's blessing – or assurances China would give the final sign-off? I mean, who knows, this whole situation has been [such a farce](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/). Including [the "around $14B" valuation](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/) – I often [joke](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2001063542166810788?ref=spyglass.org) about big deals being less than AI seed rounds these days, but this one truly is! It's also a little odd that an Abu Dhabi-based fund is one of the key backers to ensure American control of the entity? It's also still not clear which "new investors" own the mysterious other 5% – is it the Murdochs? [The US Government?](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/#:~:text=like%20outlandish%20ones!-,So%20here%27s%20another%3A,-ByteDance%20ends%20up) Oracle is clearly the lead here, so it will be interesting if that in some way gets roped into [the Netflix/Warner Bros/Paramount love triangle](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) – does the ownership of the father mean anything for the ownership of the son? What if the father is backstopping said ownership? With shares in said buyer of TikTok? It's [yet another wrinkle](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) that could be in Netflix's favor here... But the main question remains: [is TikTok really still going to remain the hot consumer product](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) when owned by a nearly 50 year old tech company (one in turbulent waters given their AI reinvention efforts, no less) and private equity funds? [Where's 'TikTok 2'](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167799180/tiktok?ref=spyglass.org)? **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/tiktok-sale?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** 🚙 [**Waymo Worth Way More Than $100B**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/waymo-seeks-to-raise-funds-at-valuation-near-100-billion?ref=spyglass.org) – I mean, at least [in my own estimation](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/), just based on our current market environment (Tesla, Uber, etc) and [not to mention](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2001063542166810788?ref=spyglass.org) that AI startups are closing in on such valuations with little to show for it – certainly not traction and/or revenue like Waymo has! Then again, Alphabet is getting others to validate the valuation, which is undoubtedly part of the very reason for the raise (as Google could clearly just fund this themselves). And they sort of have the burden of showing *actual* revenue – [$350M ARR](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/waymo-discusses-raising-billions-100-billion?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – versus even Tesla, which still has a very much [in beta self-driving taxi program](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/monitoring-the-apple-ai-m-and-a-situation?utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=Tesla%20started%20rolling%20out%20their%20%27Robotaxi%27%20service%20%E2%80%93%20that%20logo%20and%20all%20%E2%80%93%20in%20Austin%20with%20a%20lot%20of%20skepticism%20of%20how%20it%20will%20scale.%20Right%20now%2C%20there%20are%20just%20about%2010%20vehicles%20on%20the%20road%20%28with%20back%2Dup%20drivers%29%20The%20actual%20%27Cybercab%27%20will%20come%20later%20%E2%80%93%20maybe.%20%5BNYT%5D). Still, [there's a whole](https://spyglass.org/teslas-tenuous-timelines/) future-of-transportation/magical experience narrative that [they could spin here](https://spyglass.org/tesla-cybercab/) ([and would](https://spyglass.org/emerging/#:~:text=The%20Information%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,And%20I%20Quote...,-%22I%20think%20this), were Elon Musk running the company, you imagine – though he would also say, as he often does, that Waymo's approach isn't scalable in the way Tesla's will be) where $100B is an absolute steal. For now, maybe they're just fine to fly relatively low-key under the lidar. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/waymo-seeks-to-raise-funds-at-valuation-near-100-billion?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💰** [**OpenAI Worth Way More Than $800B**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-new-fundraising-round-could-value-startup-at-as-much-as-830-billion-93de9f7c?ref=spyglass.org) – By which I mean they're apparently targeting an $830B valuation in a new would-be fundraise. That's a curiously precise number for a famously imprecise business, unless you consider that they really perhaps just want that number to be higher than $800B – [the number at which SpaceX is now valued](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%E2%98%84%EF%B8%8F%20Data%20Centers%20in%20Space), of course. And when [earlier reports suggested](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-discussed-raising-tens-billions-valuation-around-750-billion?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) the valuation could be a *mere* $750B – the old pre versus post switcheroo? – that simply couldn't stand. So who is investing? I mean, who is left? [Amazon, for one, it seems](https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/). Undoubtedly more sovereign wealth funds for another. Would Apple [revisit](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/)? Would Google [*dare*](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/)?! Nothing can be ruled out. Good on Disney for [squeezing into the old $500B valuation](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) – with warrants for more, no less. 🎶When you wish upon a paper gain...🎶 Speaking of, all of the SoftBank money from the [*last*](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) fundraise isn't even in the bank yet. This is true perpetual fundraising. And clearly necessary! But it will also undoubtedly push up the targeted IPO valuation ([as I predicted a whole month ago](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/)). Maybe OpenAI could buy Waymo with this fresh $100B? **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-new-fundraising-round-could-value-startup-at-as-much-as-830-billion-93de9f7c?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **⚽️** [**FIFA's New Netflix Game**](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93w7dp42z2o?ref=spyglass.org) – There's been a bunch of Netflix gaming news in the past several weeks that's now completely buried under [the weight of Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/). But the initiative will clearly be key if Netflix wants to become [the "everything app" for entertainment](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) – and [the first $1T media company](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) – which is why they keep trying to [pivot their way into](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B9%EF%B8%8F%20Netflix%20Takes%20On%20the%20Gaming%20Consoles) the right model/experience in gaming. FIFA is an interesting play here because it was a beloved franchise ([though not exactly the best brand!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%5FFIFA%5Fcorruption%5Fcase?ref=spyglass.org)) that vanished over a licensing dispute with EA (which obviously kept going with new 'EA Sports FC' branding). The timing of the return, of course, is good with the World Cup next year. But can an unproven developer (that Netflix is partnering with) really nail this on the first shot? (They're also co-developing [the first new James Bond game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/007%5FFirst%5FLight?ref=spyglass.org) in forever due in March.) If nothing else, the price is right (free, for Netflix members). **\[**[**BBC**](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93w7dp42z2o?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💰** [**Yann LeCun is Raising Money**](https://www.ft.com/content/d88729c0-c44f-4530-b888-bafa29ee0446?ref=spyglass.org) – Two key tidbits: 1) the company is called Advanced Machine Intelligence Labs (AMI Labs) – doesn't get more generic than that – 2) they're targeting raising €500M at a €3B valuation. That almost seems quaint and shows some restraint in this day and age! Still, it presumably will make LeCun a billionaire, or close to it, on paper. Sort of interesting/fun to think about in the context of what Zuck has been [dishing out to AI talent](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) and what he clearly *wasn't* dishing out to LeCun. This report reiterates ([as LeCun has stated](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8D%20Meta%20Not%20Investing%20in%20Yann%20LeCun%27s%20%22World%20Model%22%20Startup)) that Meta won't be invested in the lab but there is still some sort of "partnership", which [continues to sound like PR](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) for both sides [post-breakup](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/). Also, LeCun has brought on a CEO named LeBrun, that's just LeFun. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/d88729c0-c44f-4530-b888-bafa29ee0446?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🎬** [**Warner Bros Discovery Rejects Paramount's Takeover Bid**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/business/media/warner-bros-paramount-takeover-netflix.html?ref=spyglass.org) – No surprise, but the two most interesting tidbits are how WBD felt misled by Paramount as their bids kept morphing to make them more attractive, and how they don't believe Paramount is actually good for the money – even though it's being backstopped by Larry Ellison. They don't trust the revocable trust (where Ellison's Oracle shares reside) element. It can't help that those shares are in a free-fall as investor concerns mount over Oracle's AI spend and the debt required... Paramount [hasn't raised the offer](https://nypost.com/2025/12/16/media/why-warner-bros-discovery-shareholders-shouldnt-count-on-a-holiday-bidding-war/?ref=spyglass.org) thus far and instead seems intent on taking it to the shareholders for a vote. And while [some of those investors](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/mario-gabelli-likely-to-tender-warner-bros-stock-to-paramount?ref=spyglass.org) are open to Paramount's offer, it feels like there are an increasing number of things starting to work against it – beyond the Oracle concerns, the YouTube/Oscars deal may oddly [help Netflix's regulatory case](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/), the fact that [hedge funds are now circling](https://www.ft.com/content/2edd5517-ee6c-41e6-ae3c-c0aedb433e98?ref=spyglass.org) the WBD TV networks (so there's clearly outside interest in those), [Jared Kushner oddly dropping out](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/media/kushner-affinity-warner-bros-paramount-rcna249583?ref=spyglass.org) of the consortium may not matter monetarily but seems like it will optically for you-know-who, etc. It's worth listening to RedBird Capital's Gerry Cardinale for the counter-arguments [on Matt Belloni's podcast *The Town*](https://www.theringer.com/podcasts/the-town-with-matthew-belloni/2025/12/18/paramount-isnt-giving-up-warner-bros-to-netflix-just-yet?ref=spyglass.org). He truly believes it will come down to how those TV networks are valued, and that the WBD/Netflix would be implicitly wildly overvaluing them (versus their offer). It is interesting that no one is talking about the potential Netflix stock upside in this deal... [Feels like they should](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/)? All eyes turn to January 8, the deadline for investor tenders... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/business/media/warner-bros-paramount-takeover-netflix.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "The bull case is that they’ll scale into it, and that a lot of companies have low margins to start, but this is a company at scale. There is no scaling going on here." – **Gil Luria**, an analyst with D.A. Davidson, [giving his thoughts](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/coreweave-stock-market-ai-bubble-a3c8c321?ref=spyglass.org) on CoreWeave – a [company](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) which he says has the "ugliest balance sheet in technology, by far." --- ### I Wrote... [YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to NetflixWith YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-811.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--09_15_17-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) [ChatGPT Starts to Break the Bounds of ChatA necessary product evolution is underway.…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-810.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-17--2025--05_20_17-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/) [Congrats Regulators, You Killed RoombaActually, you just put a Chinese robot in every home…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-809.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-16--2025--03_58_17-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/mopping-the-floor-with-antitrust/) --- ### Asides... - Warner Bros aside, **Netflix** continues to be fast and furious with their **video podcast** signings, cutting deals [with both](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/business/media/netflix-iheartmedia-video-podcasts.html?ref=spyglass.org) **iHeartMedia** and **Barstool** this week. The audio will continue to play anywhere, but the video is Netflix-exclusive. Sorry, YouTube... **\[**[**The Athletic**](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6896916/2025/12/17/netflix-pardon-my-take-podcast-deals/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The latter is interesting given their [previous deal](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) with **Spotify** for ***The Ringer*** content. Obviously, there's a rivalry there – even [before](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/kick-off?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Ryen%20Russillo%20leaving%20The%20Ringer%20to%20start%20his%20own%20company%20is%20something%20I%27m%20sure%20Bill%20Simmons%20can%20appreciate.%20Doing%20so%20with%20the%20backing%20of%20Dave%20Portnoy%20and%20Barstool...%20probably%20not%20so%20much!%20%5BFOS%5D) Barstool [poached Ryen Russillo](https://frontofficesports.com/ryen-russillo-leaving-ringer-dave-portnoy-expected-to-invest-in-new-business/?ref=spyglass.org)... Remember when Netflix [didn't care about sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/)? - Speaking of Netflix and sports, they're also hiring **Elle Duncan** away from **ESPN** to host their live sporting events. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/netflix-hires-espn-elle-duncan-sports-anchor-1236611794/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - One would-be podcaster not going anywhere? **Howard Stern**. [After](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/drinking-the-liquid-glass?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7the-howard-stern-situation) all [that](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=Engine%20Roundtable%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22What%20pisses%20me), he's sticking with **SiriusXM**. It's a shorter deal (three years) and he'll undoubtedly be cutting his workload again. But no [fun Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/)/YouTube/Spotify/Netflix deal. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/howard-stern-new-deal-siriusxm-1236451812/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Meanwhile, also undoubtedly in response to YouTube, **Instagram** is putting **Reels** on your **TV**. First via a Fire TV app. Yes, this seemingly [*also*](https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/) helps to make the case for why Netflix should be allowed to buy Warner Bros. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/instagram-reels-tv-app-launches-meta-connected-tv-1236451339/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Is **Blue Owl** backing away from the **data center** project in Michigan a blue-owl-in-the-coalmine situation, or just specifically about **Oracle's** debt load? Or both? It's seemingly the first sign of prudence in the market – this is the key partner for the first Stargate and Meta's 'Hyperion'. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/84c147a4-aabb-4243-8298-11fabf1022a3?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Speaking of **data centers**, I've been meaning to link to this fantastic visual reporting piece about the issues with **power demand**. **\[**[**FT**](https://ig.ft.com/ai-power/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Thinking Machines Lab** is planning to release their own in-house developed **models** next year – you'd sort of hope so given the [rumored $50B valuation](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%20Raising%20at%20%2450B) they're seeking, but also what [they've done to date](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%27s%20%27Tinker%27), product-wise (helping others create custom models, seemingly distilled). **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/thinking-machines-release-models-2026?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - I have two questions on the news that the parent of **Truth Social** is merging with a **nuclear fusion startup**. Both of them are "what?" **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - On one hand, the new **app directory** in **ChatGPT** is pretty straightforward and simple. On the other, OpenAIhas [tried to launch an "app store" before](https://spyglass.org/stop-making-app-stores/). Everyone [keeps trying](https://spyglass.org/hey-alexa/) to launch app stores, but will users come? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/847067/openai-app-store-directory-sdk-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta** is readying their "**Mango**" AI model for image and video generation. Wonder if they'll go with these names outward-facing to try to [match/copy](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8C%20%27Nano%20Banana%27%20Helps%20Gemini%20Go%20Viral) "Nano Banana" (and what OpenAI [should have done](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) with "[Strawberry](https://spyglass.org/openai-strawberry-fields-forever/)"). **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-developing-new-ai-image-and-video-model-code-named-mango-16e785c7?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - This is, of course, tied to "**Avocado**", the [likely *closed*](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) new [non-Llama](https://www.ft.com/content/cd3c6867-2f73-417d-a299-fb91a57bfe08?ref=spyglass.org) **flagship model**, ironically distilled from other "open" models. [Oh, Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/inside-meta-s-pivot-from-open-source-to-money-making-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Also in the internal Q&A that was leaked (as always), **Alexandr Wang** said they're exploring "**world models**" which is weird because they [just parted ways with](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) the high-profile guy leading that charge... - Seems like we can add "**continual learning**" to the **AI terms** that will be oft-repeated in 2026, alongside ["sparse attention"](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=Note%20the%20term%20%22Sparse%20Attention%22%20as%20one%20imagines%20it%20will%20be%20coming%20up%20more%20in%202026.%20And%20NVIDIA%27s%20Blackwell%20chips%20may%20be%20the%20key%20to%20make%20it%20work...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), ["reinforcement learning"](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=Also%2C%20all%20anyone%20apparently%20wanted%20to%20discuss%20there%20was%20reinforcement%20learning%20and%20world%20models...%20%5BSources%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) (nothing new, of course, and [perhaps *the* key learning from Deep Seek](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/) a year ago, [alongside "MoE"](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/)), and yes, of course, ["world models"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-11/ai-leaders-eye-new-breakthrough-to-build-more-powerful-models?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Do you want to know seemingly every product in **Apple's pipeline** for the next **two years**? Well, here you go thanks to yet [another](https://spyglass.org/signal-falling-into-hardware/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%20Apple%27s%20Leaky%20Product%20Pipelines) [massive software leak](https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8F%A1%20Apple%20Home%20Products%20Come%20More%20Into%20Focus). **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/12/15/apple-leak-unreleased-devices-codenames/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - This apparently involved a **prototype iPhone** that was sold. Which had an internal build of iOS with secret in-the-works device **codenames** included. Yikes. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/12/15/ios-software-leak-apple-features/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The **teaser** for ***Disclosure Day***, **Steven Spielberg's** *fourth* alien-related movie [looks](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFe6NRgoXCM&ref=spyglass.org)... I'm honestly not sure. But I appreciate how vague it is. Is there some connection to *Close Encounters of the Third Kind*? No one will say... **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/steven-spielberg-disclosure-ufo-movie-trailer-1236450930/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... Yeah, it's getting harder to see, quite literally, how Paramount Skydance is getting this deal. Certainly neither Netflix or Warner Bros Discovery [think that right now](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/netflix-ted-sarandos-greg-peters-warner-bros-studio-lot-1236453753/?ref=spyglass.org)! [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/Photo-Credit-Warner-Bros-Discovery-1.webp)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/netflix-ted-sarandos-greg-peters-warner-bros-studio-lot-1236453753/?ref=spyglass.org) ### The AI Chaos Ladder URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-chaos-ladder/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T15:09:17.000Z "Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder." For some reason, my mind [always drifts](https://spyglass.org/openai-chaos/) to this [Petyr Baelish](https://gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/Petyr%5FBaelish?ref=spyglass.org) [quote](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDjNcqQs1yM&ref=spyglass.org) when thinking about the current state of AI. And in particular, the constant turmoil inside of the companies making it happen. In building the future, chaos is the only constant, it seems. And yet it's relative. As we sprint towards the end of 2025, [with so much in flux](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/), I thought I'd layout where it seems like the major companies building the AI stand right now – not necessarily in terms of output, but in terms of the situations producing those outputs. At least in terms of outside perception. Let's count them down from least chaotic to total chaos, shall we? _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to Netflix URL: https://spyglass.org/future-of-hollywood-youtube-netflix/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T11:34:36.000Z Say 'UGC' again. Say. 'UGC'. Again! I dare you! [I double-dare you!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLXns1U9I7k&ref=spyglass.org) [It sure looks like](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/2001357217371668777?ref=spyglass.org) Google may have just handed [Warner Bros to Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) on a silver platter. Yes, Google. Why? Because [YouTube just stole The Oscars from ABC](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/oscars-bolt-from-abc-to-youtube-starting-in-2029-1236453188/?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) On the surface, this may not seem like a big deal. Award shows are [silly](https://500ish.com/best-2452540ed026?ref=spyglass.org) and [famously](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-036-cutting-checks-bending-knees-kissing-rings/#:~:text=%E2%AD%90%EF%B8%8F%202025%20Golden%20Globes%20Analysis) in decline. [That includes](https://spyglass.org/oscars-2024/) the biggest and [most famous of them](https://500ish.com/the-oscars-a1d0b074084e?ref=spyglass.org) in The Academy Awards. Viewership peaked at 57M in 1998, and while it has bounced back a bit from the pandemic lows, last year saw 20M viewers watch the show. Top creators on YouTube get more viewership than that on a regular basis. And that's sort of the point. The world has changed. And there's no going back. It's not just that streaming won, it's that the internet won. And that is especially top of mind at the moment because [Netflix has a deal to buy Warner Bros for $83B](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). But many people, [most notably David Ellison](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/), are *sure* that the deal won't be approved by regulators because Netflix is the top streaming service. And they'd be buying not only the top movie studio (this year), but also the third largest streaming service in HBO Max. It's the stuff [antitrust dreams](https://spyglass.org/mopping-the-floor-with-antitrust/) are made of, right? Well, no. It's far more complicated than that because again, the internet. Yes, Netflix may be the winner in "streaming" but what does that even mean? A service that streams television and movie content I guess. But why exactly aren't we including YouTube – or Instagram, or TikTok, for that matter – in that bucket? Because it's user-generated content? The three scarlet letters of Hollywood. UGC. Please. What matters should be the same thing that mattered in the Meta antitrust trial, which saw the "social network" [wipe the floor with the FTC's arguments](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/). Why? Because it's 2025 and the legal system isn't stupid. Meta doesn't just compete with MeWe – in fact, I'm not entirely sure they compete with MeWe at all, because I still haven't met anyone who knows what MeWe is (besides clearly the FTC) – they compete with Snap, [and TikTok](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/), and yes, YouTube. It's all about attention. Eyeballs. It's true with Meta, it's true with Netflix. And this YouTube/Oscars deal just drove that home. Just in case the Justice Department needs a data point, [*The New York Times* has a good one in their story on the deal](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/business/media/oscars-youtube.html?ref=spyglass.org): > YouTube has long been a dominant force on mobile devices and laptops, but it was only in the last few years that it began dominating actual television sets, too. YouTube commands 13 percent of all television viewing time in the United States, the biggest share of any streaming service, according to Nielsen, the ratings firm. (To compare, Netflix stands at 8 percent.) Wait, YouTube is a streaming service? What?! There is a war out there. But it's not between the "streamers". Or even the movie studios. Those wars are over. [Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/) and Disney won, respectively. [The new war is for the *next* phase of entertainment.](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) Right now, YouTube is winning. And this deal for the Oscars, while small relatively speaking, points to their clear intentions – as does this recent profile of CEO Neal Mohan by *The Hollywood Reporter*. You know, the one entitled, ["YouTube Just Ate TV. It’s Only Getting Started."](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/youtube-impact-tv-sports-late-night-comedy-shows-1236400353/?ref=spyglass.org) That cover story hit a couple months before this deal, quoting YouTube's intent to become "the most powerful platform on earth". So yeah, I think Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros. In fact, it feels like they might *need* *to* in order to [have any shot against YouTube](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/). [As I wrote back in October](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) on the news that Netflix was trying to take video podcasts away from YouTube: > This is a competition for literal eyeballs. And YouTube dominates them in all these verticals. Oddly not in "premium" content where Netflix dominates, but it only feels like a matter of time until they're back competing in that world too, especially as they keep expanding YouTube Premium. [Remember](https://spyglass.org/a-mac-a-day/#:~:text=I%20am%20quite%20excited%20for%20the%20second%20half%20of%20the%20sixth%20season%20of%20Cobra%20Kai.%20But%20it%27s%20also%20bittersweet%2C%20as%20it%27s%20the%20final%20season%20they%27re%20doing%20of%20what%20has%20been%20such%20a%20great%20nostalgic%20show.%20Sort%20of%20strange%20that%20it%20started%20on%20YouTube%3F%20%5BYouTube%5D) when Cobra Kai launched as a YouTube original only to be handed on a silver platter to Netflix? Yeah, they're gonna want another shot at this at some point. It's Google! Initiatives are cancelled only to be rebooted only to be cancelled only to be rebooted... > > The fact that as a part of this deal, [Netflix is requiring](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/business/media/netflix-spotify-podcast-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) that the videos not be posted to YouTube in full – i.e. only clips for promotional purposes – says all you need to know here. While Spotify can't compete with YouTube in video, Netflix can and will. UGC, movies, television, it's all going to be thrown into a blender in the next decade. What comes out will terrify Hollywood. But they were terrified when "talkies" came about. Then color. Then television. Then videotape. The plot is always the same, as is the ending. It's not the death of movies, or television, it's the *expansion* of it. An opening of the aperture to a far larger audience. Hollywood is scared because it's not the same captured audience [watching via the same controlled means of distribution](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/). But again, that's not new. The same thing keeps happening over and over and over again. You're scared of Netflix? *Netflix is your guide through this!* Just wait until AI really matures as a technology. It has only been three years since OpenAI's DALL-E [was released](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org). Look at where we are now [with image generation](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/). [Look at Sora](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) or Veo. Now close your eyes and think about [where we'll be](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) in three years. [Disney gets it](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) – or at least is trying to. Everyone else is dreaming about a return to 1950\. Or at the very least, 1998, when *Titanic* and DVDs ruled supreme. Wake up, Hollywood. And get ready for a five-hour Oscar stream. Because guess what, on the internet, no one can hear you scream about how long a telecast may be. No one cares. The next bit is just a click away. [So you better be entertaining](https://500ish.com/how-to-save-the-oscars-fee681efa7ea?ref=spyglass.org). Or else. Iceberg! [Right ahead!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYOn3-PhA9c&ref=spyglass.org) ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1057.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-799.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-800.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) [Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube’s EyeballsThe video podcast partnership may portend a bundle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-803.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_eyeball_watching_youtube_--ar_169_--v_7_e6a927a4-7826-44cb-8f70-14fb3fd740fa_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-801.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-802.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) --- 1 A move which [wasn't entirely out of the blue](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171476827/youtube-wants-to-host-the-oscars?ref=spyglass.org), by the way. [Lucas Shaw of *Bloomberg* reported on this possibility](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-17/youtube-is-making-a-play-to-host-the-oscars?ref=spyglass.org) back in August. Still, surprising! And who else was in the running for the rights? Netflix, naturally. [↩](#) ### ChatGPT Starts to Break the Bounds of Chat URL: https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-image-ui/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T15:09:00.000Z [OpenAI’s ChatGPT Updated to Make Images Better and FasterOpenAI is rolling out an update to ChatGPT that’s intended to generate images better and faster, the latest move by the artificial intelligence developer to bolster its flagship chatbot amid heated competition from Alphabet Inc.’s Google. The new version of ChatGPT Images, announced on Thursday, is designed to make and edit images more precisely, as well as to spit out pictures as much as four times faster than its previous AI image-generation model. The company is also creating a new section w![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-28.png)BloombergRachel Metz![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x827.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/openai-s-chatgpt-updated-to-make-images-better-and-faster?ref=spyglass.org) What started as [a DALL-E obsession](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org) for me way [back in the day](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-in-bloom-83ee96c99b61?ref=spyglass.org) eventually [morphed](https://500ish.com/g3nerative-33a65834604?ref=spyglass.org) into a Midjourney addiction. But in recent months, Gemini became my go-to AI image generator. Why? 'Nano Banana' [of course](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-bananas/). Just exceptional work out of Google – including [going with the correct stupid name](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/seeing-jensens-shadow?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Playing%20around%20with%20Google%27s%20new%20%27Gemini%202.5%20Flash%20Image%27%20model%20focused%20on%20image%20editing%20and%20yes%2C%20it%27s%20really%20good.%20My%20only%20complaint%20is%20that%20they%20should%20have%20actually%20named%20it%20%27Nano%20Banana%27!%20%5BTechCrunch%5D%20%F0%9F%8D%8C) for maximum [virality](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8C%20%27Nano%20Banana%27%20Helps%20Gemini%20Go%20Viral).[1](#one) OpenAI, deep [in the throes of a "Code Red"](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/), wants their crown back: > OpenAI is rolling out an update to ChatGPT that’s intended to generate images better and faster, the latest move by the artificial intelligence developer to bolster its flagship chatbot amid heated competition from Alphabet Inc.’s Google. > > The new version of ChatGPT Images, announced on Thursday, is designed to make and edit images more precisely, as well as to spit out pictures as much as four times faster than its previous AI image-generation model. The company is also creating a new section within ChatGPT’s mobile app and website meant for people to make images, rather than just doing so in an interaction with the chatbot. I'm happy to report that it's good. Very good, even. I'm only a day or so into using it, but I'm finding myself preferring it over Nano Banana right now in my early side-by-side tests. Most importantly, it's *fast*. Still not quite as fast as Gemini in my usage, but the biggest issue that ChatGPT had previously with images was just how sloooow it was to generate them. It was tedious. This new version is not. But the bigger change may actually be the UI tweak to ChatGPT itself alongside this new image model. I always found it a little odd that image creation was a part of the chat interface. On one hand, that's good for simplicity. But we're to the point now where ChatGPT is [a pretty robust product](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/), with multiple [features](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) and [functions](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/). While media you created was sorted into its own area, now image creation has a native home there too. You can still do it all from the main text prompt, but for most users, this area will probably make more sense. [Fidji Simo's post on the matter](https://fidjisimo.substack.com/p/more-dynamic-ai-experiences) explains the company's rationale: > Over the past few months, I’ve talked about how ChatGPT is evolving from a reactive, text-based product into something more intuitive and connected to any of the tasks you want to accomplish. The shift from text to multimedia and dynamic UI is an important part of that transformation, and I’m excited about the progress we’re making. > > |Many people’s first experience with ChatGPT involves turning a text prompt into a picture. It’s a magical way to see what this technology can do, but the chat interface wasn’t originally designed for this. Creating and editing images is a different kind of task and deserves a space built for visuals. Today we launched a [new image gen model and a dedicated entrypoint in ChatGPT for images](https://openai.com/index/new-chatgpt-images-is-here/?ref=spyglass.org) that works more like a creative studio. The new image viewing and editing screens make it easier to create images that match your vision or get inspiration from trending prompts and preset filters. And yes, this does seem to be just the start of reworking [the ChatGPT UI](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) to better accommodate the job being done, rather than just, you know, chat. Again, there are risks to that move away from simplicity, but it also *feels* like [the right time to evolve](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/). Especially when Gemini's own product has evolved to look... *a lot like ChatGPT*. One of OpenAI's key strength has been [their ability to productize AI](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/), and Google, it seems to me, is [starting to catch up](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/). So you gotta keep moving.[2](#two) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-at-5.14.06---PM.png) --- 1 Sort of ironic given OpenAI's use of [fruit nicknames-that-should-have-been-product-names](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) as well... [↩](#) 2 Especially if one end-goal is to create [new kinds](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) of [devices](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/) that [lives far beyond](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) a text prompt... [↩](#) ### Conflicts & Interests in AI URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-conflict-of-interest/ Last updated: 2026-02-24T16:08:04.000Z Wikipedia defines the concept of "conflict of interest" [thusly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conflict%5Fof%5Finterest?ref=spyglass.org): "A situation in which a person or organization is involved in multiple interests, financial or otherwise, and serving one interest could involve working against another." It has always been a bit of a gray area with investors. In fact, one of the most famous VC quotes of all time turns the notion on its head: "No conflict, no interest," is [often attributed](https://avc.com/2010/04/no-conflict-no-interest/?ref=spyglass.org) to Kleiner Perkins' [John Doerr](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John%5FDoerr?ref=spyglass.org) back in the day – [it may be apocryphal](https://www.businessinsider.com/no-conflict-no-interest-john-doerr-twitter-2011-3?ref=spyglass.org), it doesn't matter, because it's accurate. Increasingly so. Whereas investors used to still at least try to adhere, *or appear to adhere*, to avoiding conflicts in their investments, in walked AI and turn the gray area clear. As in invisible. As in, it no longer matters. I mean, it still does because people and egos are involved. But the reality of our current situation is that all of these AI companies need to raise the maximum amount of money possible, because they're burning [the maximum amount of money possible](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). Today brings the latest in a long line of recent examples. [As Anissa Gardizy, Sri Muppidi, Cory Weinberg, and Amir Efrati report for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-talks-raise-least-10-billion-amazon-use-ai-chips?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > Amazon is in talks to invest $10 billion or more in OpenAI, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The valuation would be higher than $500 billion, one of the people said. This is big news and yet entirely predictable. Because, [well, I predicted it](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/): > It also sure feels like with this latest news we're mere weeks away from Google and/or Amazon investing in OpenAI, [completing the ouroboros](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). [Apple](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/)? All totally cool, right? Since this isn't "zero sum" per Nadella... Honestly, I'm mainly impressed by my timing prediction here – *that was, in fact,* *just a few weeks ago* – because the investment itself was inevitable. And that's because it follows [the news](https://www.techmeme.com/251118/p24?ref=spyglass.org#a251118p24) that Microsoft and NVIDIA were investing in Anthropic. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Congrats Regulators, You Killed Roomba URL: https://spyglass.org/mopping-the-floor-with-antitrust/ Last updated: 2026-02-20T10:16:41.000Z In August of 2022, Amazon [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/amazon-to-acquire-maker-of-roomba-vacuum-for-roughly-1point7-billion.html?ref=spyglass.org) the acquisition of iRobot, the makers of the popular Roomba robotic vacuum, for $61/share, roughly $1.7B – all cash. On paper, it looked like Amazon was potentially getting a good deal,[1](#one) as that price was a bit under half of the peak stock price the company achieved in early 2021\. Of course, that was also the peak of the pandemic and with everyone stuck at home, iRobot was a clear and obvious beneficiary.[2](#two) By 2022, with lockdown restrictions lifting, iRobot was stuck in the corner when it came to earnings. Amazon, as it turns out, wasn't getting a deal, they were catching a falling knife. Not so fast, said regulators. A few weeks after the announcement, the FTC, led by Lina Khan, announced [they were looking into the deal](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/02/amazons-ftc-problem-keeps-growing-with-irobot-one-medical-probes-00054749?ref=spyglass.org). The following summer with the FTC investigation still ongoing, the UK's Competition and Markets Authority [cleared the acquisition](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/amazon-s-purchase-of-roomba-maker-cleared-by-cma?ref=spyglass.org). But almost immediately after, the European Commission launched their own investigation into the deal. Miraculously, the EC moved far faster than the FTC, and by November of 2023, they issued [a formal "Statement of Objections"](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip%5F23%5F5990?ref=spyglass.org) to Amazon, indicating they believed the deal violated antitrust rules. By January 2024, [they were moving to block the deal](https://www.wsj.com/tech/eu-commission-intends-to-block-amazons-irobot-acquisition-268a8a1b?gaa%5Fat=eafs&gaa%5Fn=AWEtsqfel84p1z3gqRF7fSiryOdES3UBU6siNqWgsV-vrynKaOf1TliIuCgUgm3t%5F0M%3D&gaa%5Fts=69416b0c&gaa%5Fsig=JqrwKhVkiXD9%5Fiq9YKgsmCkoQTqkPLsOMiRmGO4O1zAIQrGeL3y3RLJ3VQVkUhnwpGyHwYem1wPXrN8i6bKVYg%3D%3D&ref=spyglass.org). As a result, 16 months after the agreement, [Amazon dropped the bid](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/29/amazon-deal-irobot-eu-veto-roomba?ref=spyglass.org). The FTC never formally weighed in – again, after nearly 16 months of looking into it – but [all indications were](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-ftc-poised-reject-amazon-164931981.html?ref=spyglass.org) that they were moving to sue as well, which is undoubtedly what was the actual final straw for Amazon. Well, that and the fact that the iRobot business knife kept falling the entire time. In a way, regulators may have saved Amazon future headaches here – certainly they saved them some money. But they also killed iRobot. Here's [Peter Hoskins reporting for the *BBC*](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1lr75lp239o?ref=spyglass.org): > The US firm behind the Roomba smart vacuum cleaner, iRobot, has filed for bankruptcy protection after facing competition from Chinese rivals and being hit by tariffs. > > Under the so-called [pre-packaged Chapter 11 process, external](https://investor.irobot.com/news-releases/news-release-details/irobot-announces-strategic-transaction-drive-long-term-growth?ref=spyglass.org), the main manufacturer of its devices, Shenzhen-based Picea Robotics, will take ownership of the firm. Yes, you're reading that correctly, thanks to the EC and with that huge assist from the FTC, an American company was stopped from buying another American company, and as a result, that American company went bankrupt and their assets are now being taken over by a *Chinese* company. Great job everyone. After Amazon dropped their bid, iRobot immediately [announced](https://media.irobot.com/2024-01-29-iRobot-Announces-Operational-Restructuring-Plan-to-Position-Company-for-the-Future?ref=spyglass.org) the departure of their CEO and the elimination of over 30% of their workforce in an attempt to stay afloat. The company's stock went from trading in the high-$30/share range (showcasing investor skepticism that the deal, which also had to be renegotiated a bit in those 16 months, was going to get done) to plummeting by more than half overnight. By the time of this bankruptcy, the company had [undergone more rounds of layoffs](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-048-irish-eyes/#:~:text=Regulators%20effectively%20killed%20the%20Roomba%20after%20they%20contested%20the%20deal%20for%20Amazon%20to%20acquire%20iRobot.%20That%20turned%20a%20%241.4B%20company%20into%20a%20%24100M%20company%20%28and%20falling%20%E2%80%93%20seemingly%20on%20the%20verge%20of%20bankruptcy%20in%20just%20over%20a%20year%29.%20Innovation!%20%5BAxios%5D) and the stock started trading under $1 a share – *giving iRobot a market cap of under $40M* – less than half the puny $94M break-up fee Amazon paid when the deal was killed. So here I am today left wondering why we're not seeing a Lina Khan victory lap, like [the one she took](https://x.com/linamkhan/status/1951361535861043589?ref=spyglass.org) when Figma went public after she successfully torpedoed their sale to Adobe. Also, I'm not seeing a Tim Wu op-ed as we [often do around these matters](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/). Others who were quick to rage against the living room machines being owned by Amazon were [bathing in hypocrisy today](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/12/15/roomba-maker-irobot-declares-bankruptcy?ref=spyglass.org). One wonders [how Elizabeth Warren](https://x.com/SenWarren/status/1575616208417980417?ref=spyglass.org) is going to vacuum her home now. Probably [some cheap Chinese robot vacuum](https://x.com/joecarlsonshow/status/2000389007956680722?ref=spyglass.org). There are not a lot of other options...[3](#three) My point, [as always](https://spyglass.org/modern-antitrust-keeps-failing/), is just how badly broken the antitrust review system is, both in the US and in Europe. It's completely ill-equipped to operate in the 21st century, propelled by thinking that not only is [overly focused on hindsight](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/), but is [often just backwards](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/). And everything coming down the pike with AI is only going to exacerbate the issues further. Regulators have been busy [worrying about VR fitness apps](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/07/ftc-seeks-block-virtual-reality-giant-metas-acquisition-popular-app-creator-within?ref=spyglass.org) and focused on going after Big Vacuum, which has created a big vacuum when it comes to leadership and guidance that actually protects anyone. Mostly [the markets do their thing](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/) and remedy such situations without the need for intervention that at best is a distraction, but at worst is, well, this iRobot situation. But the fear would be that they won't in every situation and some sort of regulation will actually be needed. But we now have [a very real "boy who cried wolf" situation](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/), where because these government bodies keep going after anything and everything that acquires, looking for the spotlight to further political careers rather than any actual consumer harm, no one believes they'll actually get this right when they need to. What they do with [this Netflix/Warner Bros deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) will be fascinating. Certainly, they're going to look at it – again, if nothing else, there's a huge spotlight to be stepped into here – but it's not clear that blocking such a deal wouldn't actually leave everyone – Hollywood included, [though they're rage-blinded to it right now](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) – *in a worse spot*. Maybe not iRobot bad, but leaving Warner Bros not really in any sort of shape to truly compete in the market. [I do wonder](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) if Netflix, much like Amazon with iRobot, isn't the would-be savior here. Not a thief in the night. **One more thing:** while [Khan was quick with that Figma victory lap](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171274073/lina-khan-takes-a-figma-ipo-victory-lap?ref=spyglass.org), with the stock popping ([completely unnaturally](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/down-bad?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=%5BTechmeme%5D-,%F0%9F%8E%A8%20Figma%E2%80%99s%20Comeback,-%E2%80%94%20Just%20over%20a)) out of the gate, yesterday the company's market cap fell to $17B – that's $3B less than Adobe's $20B offer. [As Ben Ling notes](https://x.com/bling0/status/2000640092315230271?ref=spyglass.org), the broader markets are up about 50% since that deal collapsed. At the time the deal collapsed, Adobe's stock price – it was a 50/50 cash/stock deal – had *doubled* from when the offer came in. Great job everyone. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/ChatGPT-Image-Dec-16--2025--03_53_58-PM.png) --- 1 There [was some initial thought](https://mgs.blog/thank-you-home-robot-7766650610c1?ref=spyglass.org) that this deal would bolster Amazon's fledgling robotics division. But in hindsight, that too looks a bit silly compared to the robotics being worked on now in our Age of AI. Maybe Amazon would have gotten some interesting indoor mapping data to help future robotic endeavors – maybe. More likely, Roomba just would have been another Alexa-enabled device to sell. [↩](#) 2 Easy to forget now that the company, started in 1990 by three MIT researchers, [at earlier points had built robots that were](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/15/business/roomba-irobot-bankruptcy.html?ref=spyglass.org) "deployed with U.S. ground troops, searched the World Trade Center after the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001 and monitored an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico." [↩](#) 3 [There is some hope...](https://maticrobots.com/?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) ### The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification Theory URL: https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/ Last updated: 2026-08-25T07:37:57.000Z Everyone knows the quote. Netflix. HBO. Ted Sarandos. [Just over a decade old](https://www.gq.com/story/netflix-founder-reed-hastings-house-of-cards-arrested-development?ref=spyglass.org), it rears its head [every few years](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) as Netflix and HBO find themselves in ever-evolving positions in the Hollywood food chain. And, of course, it has come roaring back [once again in the past week](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) with the news that Netflix has struck a deal to acquire HBO-parent Warner Bros Discovery. If the deal actually happens – still a pretty big "*if*" on a few fronts that will likely play out over months, if not *years* – it seems like the perfect bookend for the quote. But just as interesting as the quote itself is just how off Sarandos actually was in his framing. Not because he was wrong, but because in thinking that Netflix had to become HBO, he was thinking *far too small*. [He's admitted this mistake](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/magazine/ted-sarandos-netflix-interview.html?ref=spyglass.org) in the past, but that's what this deal truly highlights. Because if it happens, it will cement Netflix as not just HBO, [and not just cable](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/), but potentially *all of Hollywood*. As we await future counter-bids, hostile takeover efforts, and/or regulatory challenges to the deal, it's worth taking a step back to think through what Netflix is actually thinking here. I like to think through what Netflix is thinking. And [I think](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) I have [a pretty good track-record](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/18/killing-cable/?ref=spyglass.org) over [the years](https://spyglass.org/raw-is-streaming-war/) when it comes to [thinking through](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/19/netflix-cult-hits/?ref=spyglass.org) such things [with Netflix](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org). So here's my current thinking... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: Grabbing the Popcorn 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-grabbing-the-popcorn/ Last updated: 2025-12-12T19:27:23.000Z Hard to believe we're only [a week removed](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) from Netflix announcing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Feels like a lot has happened since then, because it has. Notably, a move to go hostile by Paramount Skydance, with David Ellison [pitching WBD shareholders directly](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/david-ellison-letter-to-wbd-shareholders-1236447136/?ref=spyglass.org), via "lengthy letters". He's clearly big mad. **BOLD** mad, no less. A [couple](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-netflix-warner-bros-battle-ellisons-a86fe15c?ref=spyglass.org) fun [tick-tocks](https://www.ft.com/content/e5da7064-3a46-4bab-9a6c-12ae03eead16?ref=spyglass.org) reveal why: they clearly thought they had this deal in the bag – I mean, they got Jared Kushner's fund involved, when Netflix swooped in, leading David Zaslav to ghost Ellison. Ouch. WBD was clearly worried about [the foreign money components](https://www.semafor.com/article/12/08/2025/paramounts-mideast-financing-doomed-warner-bros-discovery-auction-bid?ref=spyglass.org) of the financing as well as the financing itself. It certainly can't help that Oracle's stock is down nearly 35% in the past few months – and nearly 15% this week alone – given that Larry Ellison is backstopping the deal. Unless Paramount pulls out, it feels like this is going to go on for months. As such, the deal may not actually close for *years*. History – both Barry Diller and Sumner Redstone back in the day battling for Paramount (more on that at the bottom of this newsletter), and more recently, Disney and Comcast [battling for Fox](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/kevin-mayer-warner-bros-higher-bids-netflix-paramount-1236445635/?ref=spyglass.org) – would seem to indicate Netflix is still the likely victor, but it will probably cost them a lot more money to get it done. But history also didn't have this particular administration in power so... Who knows. One big signal coming [in January](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/comcast-versant-spinoff-january-close-1236599205/?ref=spyglass.org) will be when Comcast spins off Versant ([their TV channel cruft](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/warner-bros-discovery-splits-in-two?ref=spyglass.org)) and we'll see how that's valued, which will dictate how WBD's channels (not part of the Netflix deal but part of the Paramount deal) [should be valued](https://www.businessinsider.com/warner-bros-cable-networks-worth-how-much-netflix-cnn-hbo-2025-12?ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, I've gotten two takes out of this fiasco so far – that [Hollywood is silly to fear Netflix here](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/), relative to the alternative at least! And [wondering if Netflix truly has found religion with movie theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/), or if they're just saying that to try to woo Hollywood and seal this deal – and I look forward to months more of good fodder in the form of popcorn. --- ### The Inner Ring... [The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product. The![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-777.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_g9lrqlg9lrqlg9lr.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/) [Meta Bought a HeadacheIs the internal AI pain ultimately going to be worth the price?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-776.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_a_llama_with_a_headache_cartoon_16x9_--ar_169_--v_7_46ebb08f-7b79-47e5-be04-9824ab200042_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/) [Apple TurnoverThe recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-775.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_an_apple_turnover_made_with_logos_of_Apple_--ar_169_--v_7_d5ee4b42-f799-4cf3-a50c-d0cca412973b_0-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/) --- ### Thoughts On... **💰** [**Anthropic is Broadcom's $10B Mystery Partner – to Buy TPUs**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/broadcom-reveals-its-mystery-10-billion-customer-is-anthropic.html?ref=spyglass.org) – In last quarter's earnings, Broadcom [disclosed](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/broadcom-avgo-stock-openai-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org) a new $10B deal with a partner they refused to name. This led to speculation that it was either OpenAI – which was subsequently [shot down](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/#:~:text=With%20their%20partnership%20officially%20out%20there%2C%20Broadcom%20says%20OpenAI%20was%20not%20the%20%2410B%20new%20customer%20cited%20in%20their%20most%20recent%20earnings.%20So%20the%20mystery%20continues...%20Who%20could%20it%20be%3F%20Apple%3F) as they have [their own, other massive deal](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20The%20OpenAI/Broadcom%20Deal) with Broadcom – or one of the Big Tech players. Will, it's sort of tangential to one of them, with *Anthropic* now confirmed as the partner – *to buy TPUs from Broadcom*. This is obviously an offshoot of Anthropic's own [recently announced deal with Google](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/), but it's also bigger than that because it further confirms that Google is now clearly competing with NVIDIA in *selling* XPUs – this isn't just *talking* to Meta about the chips, this is Anthropic *committed* to buying them. Oh, and apparently $11B more on top of this. And they're presumably buying them to put [in data centers they're building](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) (or why not let the data center operators buy them – exclusive access, maybe?). And it probably led to [NVIDIA cutting their own direct deal](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) with Anthropic to try to combat a full shift (on top of the shift they already have done to Amazon's Trainium chips). Also, [amazing call](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/#one) by @[](https://x.com/zephyr%5Fz9?ref=spyglass.org)[Zephyr](https://x.com/zephyr%5Fz9?ref=spyglass.org), who [nailed this two months ago](https://x.com/zephyr%5Fz9/status/1978834774786445562?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/broadcom-reveals-its-mystery-10-billion-customer-is-anthropic.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🤖** [**GPT-5.2**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/842529/openai-gpt-5-2-new-model-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org) – The strangest thing to me about the latest model is how *little* people seem to be talking about it. After the flurry of press when it was announced, the actual chatter seems almost non-existent, at least relative to 5 and 5.1\. But that's probably a good thing! As those were being [talked about for the wrong reasons](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/). This is just more of a "yeah, it's good" release, coming less than a month after 5.1, perhaps to [push ahead of Gemini](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) once again to end the year. Or perhaps to get it out the door ahead of a true heads-down "Code Red" sprint towards the next release – maybe the one [including sexy time](https://www.theverge.com/news/842657/openai-chatgpt-adult-mode-debut-q1-2026?ref=spyglass.org)? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/842529/openai-gpt-5-2-new-model-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🏡** [**Apple Home Products Come More Into Focus**](https://www.macworld.com/article/3007751/leaked-code-spills-details-of-mystery-apple-smart-home-accessory.html?ref=spyglass.org) – Leaked internal Apple code seemingly confirms not only the impending arrival of the [long](https://spyglass.org/apple-rings-and-glasses/)\-[rumored](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/) "[HomePad](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/)" [device](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/), but features including a camera that can be used not just for FaceTime, but also FaceID, and which notably may give the device multi-user support. Apple TV and Macs have long had such functionality, but iPads, famously, have not – which has long been annoying for households with, say, families. The code also suggests one other accessory is coming alongside the new home device and is sure seems like a security camera. All of it should [finally](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=closer%20to%20launch...-,One%20more%20thing%3A,-My%20bet%20would) hit this Spring. **\[**[**MacWorld**](https://www.macworld.com/article/3007751/leaked-code-spills-details-of-mystery-apple-smart-home-accessory.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📲** [**2025's Top Downloaded Apps**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/10/chatgpt-is-apples-most-downloaded-app-of-2025-in-the-us/?ref=spyglass.org) – ChatGPT takes the top spot for the first time in Apple's year-end charts – up from 4th place last year. Meanwhile, Meta has three apps in the Top 10 (Threads, WhatsApp, Instagram) – but far more impressive is Google with *five* (Google, YouTube, Google Maps, Gmail, Gemini). Yes, Google controls half of the top apps on Apple's App Store. The only other player is TikTok. (Notably, Facebook missed the cut this year at number 11.) Though things have been [shifting of late](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1989640897584402658?ref=spyglass.org) as AI takes over, [with OpenAI's Sora](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) and even xAI's Grok charting last month, pushing out every Meta app aside from Threads, and TikTok – [where's that sale](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/), [by the way](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/)? **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/10/chatgpt-is-apples-most-downloaded-app-of-2025-in-the-us/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **☄️** [**Data Centers in Space**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/bezos-and-musk-race-to-bring-data-centers-to-space-faa486ee?ref=spyglass.org) – Such a prospect certainly sheds new light on the private space race between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos (and [why](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=the%20top%20down...-,OTOH,-%2C%20there%20is%20a) Sam Altman might want OpenAI [involved](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=Asides...-,Speaking%20of,-...%20is%20it%20more) in a rocket company). While I don't think either started with that goal, it could be a nice, and extremely lucrative offshoot, just as the satellite internet service has been with Starlink – and [soon Amazon Leo](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=Amazon%20has%20renamed%20%27Project%20Kuiper%27%20to%20%27Leo%27%20%E2%80%93%20for%20%22Low%20Earth%20Orbit%22%20%E2%80%93%20an%20infinitely%20better%20name.%20Now%20they%20just%20need%20infinitely%20more%20satellites%20in%20that%20orbit%20to%20actually%20compete%20with%20Starlink.%20%5BGeekWire%5D)? At the same time, this is obviously a lot harder than just throwing some data center-equipped satellites into space. Even the notion of cooling such devices is [not as straightforward as you might assume](https://x.com/jenzhuscott/status/1998591718338486757?s=46&t=zNOmY23xZeN2p07CX%5F9u8g&ref=spyglass.org) – yes, space is technically cold, but it's also, as it turns out, a vacuum. The kind of environment that doesn't dissipate heat well. You have to *glow* it off! Still, solar power will certainly be more abundant! But will that be more efficient than land-based power plants? Probably not for a long time. And let's not even bother with data transfer speeds. Are these going to be giant tape back-ups in the sky for a while? Still, undoubtedly the future at some point! Regardless, good narrative for [SpaceX share sales taking place at $800B](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacex-tells-investors-aiming-late-2026-ipo?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), leaping back in front of OpenAI. Oh yes, and an IPO, leaping back in front of... [OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/). Total coincidences, [these narratives](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) are. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/bezos-and-musk-race-to-bring-data-centers-to-space-faa486ee?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Quote... > "They thought they were playing 5D chess and they were playing tiddlywinks." – **A "person close to the administration"** [commenting](https://www.semafor.com/article/12/08/2025/finger-pointing-in-washington-as-paramount-goes-hostile-in-bid-for-warner-bros?ref=spyglass.org) on how Paramount has been misplaying their hand with President Trump, assuming they'd have a leg up in [the race](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) to [buy Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/). To quote a character from a Warner Bros film, as one must in [such situations](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/), "[Do you feel in charge?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C%5FBubeBU8E&ref=spyglass.org)" --- ### I Wrote... [OpenAI Strikes BackOpenAI’s deal with Disney deals a blow to Google…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-778.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_Darth_Vader_coming_into_a_negotiation_room_cartoon_1_989ead01-a95d-414d-bc72-b26deffbd8b4_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/) [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-779.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-780.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) --- ### Asides... - Happy **10th birthday** **OpenAI**. If that seems old to you, it's because ChatGPT itself only came about 3 years ago. Before that, it was [a lot of research](https://fidjisimo.substack.com/p/joining-openai-at-10) and [other experiments](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org). The [Wild Ride](https://spyglass.org/tag/openai/) continues. **\[**[**OpenAI**](https://openai.com/index/ten-years/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Oh look, **Gemini** [finally](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Perplexity%27s%20Mobile%20AI%20Browser) baked into **Chrome** on **mobile**... **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2025/12/10/gemini-chrome-iphone/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Given all the new deals **Anthropic** is cutting – [Google](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/), [Microsoft, NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/), etc – seems fair to wonder if their relationship with **Amazon**, [their largest shareholder](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) is a-ok. There are some *faint* [OpenAI/Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) echoes... **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/aws-preps-new-ai-models-relations-anthropic-get-complicated?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Amazon** playing hardball with the **US Postal Service** feels a bit like the Dodgers playing against the kids from [*The Sandlot*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FSandlot?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**WaPo**](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/12/04/usps-amazon-delivery/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Good news for **NVIDIA**, their **H200** chips are back on the menu in **China**! **\[**[**Semafor**](https://www.semafor.com/article/12/09/2025/trump-says-nvidia-can-sell-h200-ai-chips-to-china?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Well, not so fast, says **China**. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/c4e81a67-cd5b-48b4-9749-92ecf116313d?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - But maybe, says China, after talking to **tech companies in China**. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/china-weighs-nvidia-chip-purchase-emergency-meetings-tech-companies?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Does this mean these players will stop using the **banned**, more powerful **NVIDIA** **chips**? Undoubtedly not. How? [AI, uh, finds a way](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) – allegedly **smuggling** chips using a fake "Sandkyan" brand. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/us-detains-two-men-accused-of-smuggling-nvidia-ai-gear-to-china?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Note the term "**Sparse Attention**" as one imagines it will be coming up more in 2026. And **NVIDIA's** **Blackwell** chips may be the key to make it work... **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-using-banned-nvidia-chips-race-build-next-model?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Did the notion of **Huawei** catching up with their **AI systems** despite (*or really because of*) the bans sway Trump? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/trump-s-reprieve-for-nvidia-s-h200-spurred-by-huawei-s-ai-gains?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - All of this for the low-low price of **25% of sales** to the **US government**. As [the 15% deal](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) was clearly [altered further, despite prayers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D8TEJtQRhw&ref=spyglass.org). Doesn't matter, this was [a "break glass" situation](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/#one) for NVIDIA. **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/trump-nvidia-h200-sales-china.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Why can't **Russia** (and other countries) block **iMessage** (while they're busy blocking FaceTime)? It's all about the design of how it works with push notifications. **\[**[**Daring Fireball**](https://daringfireball.net/2025/12/imessage%5Fpush%5Fnotifications%5Fhard%5Fto%5Fblock?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Jeff Williams**, fresh off [his retirement](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) from Apple is up for a plum new (part-time) position: board member at **Disney**. **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-names-former-apple-coo-jeff-williams-board-1236445932/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - If **Salesforce** really rebrands into '**Agentforce**'... [I mean](https://spyglass.org/whopper-of-a-week/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,And%20I%20Quote...,-%22I%20was%20like), [my](https://spyglass.org/grift-greed/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Slack%20Lets%20Users%20Add%20AI%20Agents%20from%20Adobe%2C%20Asana%2C%20Workday%2C%20etc) [god](https://spyglass.org/ai-day-of-demos/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%91%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%92%BB%20Enterprise%20Philosophy%20and%20The%20First%20Wave%20of%20AI). **\[**[**BI**](https://www.businessinsider.com/salesforce-marc-benioff-says-he-might-rename-company-agentforce-2025-12?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Look, I'm not saying [it's a bubble](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/), but **NeurIPS**, a 39-year-old conference devoted to neural networks,had **26,000 attendees** this year. **\[**[**NBC News**](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/ai-progress-surges-researchers-struggle-explain-rcna247693?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Great quote out of it: **"People built bridges before Isaac Newton figured out physics."** - Also, all anyone apparently wanted to discuss there was **reinforcement learning** [and](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) **world models**... **\[**[**Sources**](https://sources.news/p/googles-rise-rl-mania-and-a-party?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Not really sure why **Google** did a full-court press preview of the range of **AI glasses** coming next year, but they seem to be okay? [Enough](https://spyglass.org/google-glasses-xr/) with [the show and tells](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/), just ship them or not? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-08/google-says-first-ai-glasses-with-gemini-will-arrive-in-2026?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Meanwhile, **Meta** is apparently delaying the release of their own next-gen **glasses** ([one of many headsets](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) they have in the pipeline, including still some VR ones, [despite the cuts](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/)) codenamed "**Phoenix**" into 2027\. **\[**[**BI**](https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-delays-new-mixed-reality-glasses-code-named-phoenix-2025-12?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Speaking of, I was surprised by the relatively muted response to **Meta** buying **Limitless**, given that they make *an always-on AI wearable*. But they're also shutting that product – [too bad, it was cute!](https://spyglass.org/limitless-pendant/) – so it seems more just an acquihire ahead of [getting Allen Dye](https://spyglass.org/alan-dye-apple-meta-ui/) to try to combat [whatever OpenAI/Jony Ive have cooking up](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/). **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/05/meta-acquires-ai-device-startup-limitless/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **YouTube TV** is finally going more granular with their offers – 10 genre-specific and, [importantly](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/), *cheaper* **packages** – one might even call them "bundles" – are inbound. Feels like they *had* to do this before [they inevitably raise the full price](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/) to $100/month next year. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/youtube-tv-plans-genre-specific-cheaper-sports-espn-unlimited-1236605324/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **AMC Theaters** is selling most of their stake in the **gold and silver mining** companies they bought into in 2022 to raise cash. The movie theater business is [just fine](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/). Why do you ask? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/amc-theatres-sale-gold-silver-mining-company-hycroft-stake-1236444461/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... [The parallels](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/business/media/netflix-paramount-warner-bros-barry-diller.html?ref=spyglass.org) between the Netflix/Warner Bros/Paramount battle and 30 years ago when Barry Diller fought Sumner Redstone for control of Paramount are fun. Redstone would be Netflix in the equation, and he obviously eventually won the deal for Viacom. Diller, in losing, famously said, "They won. We lost. Next." And so Redstone/Viacom responded with [the following swag](https://www.ebay.com/itm/166539914594?ref=spyglass.org). Ice cold. Might I suggest that either Ted Sarandos and/or David Ellison get on eBay to rock this depending on who wins this battle? [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/s-l500.jpg)](https://www.ebay.com/itm/166539914594?ref=spyglass.org) ### The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the Face URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-xpus/ Last updated: 2026-02-17T13:05:19.000Z Apple needs a new hit product. Well, *needs* is relative. They *want* a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that *new* product. [Services are doing great](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/), but that's not a singular sexy product. The Vision Pro [wasn't it](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/). The new "HomePad" thing might be fun, but [probably won't](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=closer%20to%20launch...-,One%20more%20thing%3A,-My%20bet%20would) move any needles. [Smart Glasses](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) might do better, but still undoubtedly won't be close to iPhone-sized. The car project [crashed](https://spyglass.org/rip-apple-car/). As has [AI work in general](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). Robots? [Maybe](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/) one [day](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/). But there's one idea that's right there, right now, just staring them in the face. The only problem? It's not a *consumer* product... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI Strikes Back URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-strikes-back/ Last updated: 2026-02-17T13:05:02.000Z Gemini this. Gemini that. Hey Google, say hello to my little friend, Darth Vader. In quite the one-two punch, two pieces of news have just hit in quick succession. [The first](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/disney-openai-sora-characters-video.html?ref=spyglass.org) was that Disney and OpenAI have an agreement in place for the AI startup to use selected IP from the storied company in products like Sora. Then, just minutes later came [the second](https://variety.com/2025/digital/news/disney-google-ai-copyright-infringement-cease-and-desist-letter-1236606429/?ref=spyglass.org): Disney was sending a cease and desist letter to Google, ordering the Big Tech giant to stop infringing on their IP with their own AI systems. I mean, wow, that's one way to change the conversation. Again, [that conversation](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) has been largely about how Google, with their recent updates to Gemini, had come roaring back to match and perhaps surpass the long-time [AI leader](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/), OpenAI. Perhaps not in terms of users versus ChatGPT – at least not yet. But some [clever product moves](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) and the ability to leverage the Google properties with billions of users had many wondering if they weren't just back in the game after [their slow start](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/), but perhaps now *winning* it. As it turns out, [Sam Altman had a lightsaber up his sleeve](https://openai.com/index/disney-sora-agreement/?ref=spyglass.org): > The Walt Disney Company and OpenAI have reached an agreement for Disney to become the first major content licensing partner on Sora, OpenAI’s short-form generative AI video platform, bringing these leaders in creativity and innovation together to unlock new possibilities in imaginative storytelling. > > As part of this new, three-year licensing agreement, Sora will be able to generate short, user-prompted social videos that can be viewed and shared by fans, drawing from a set of more than 200 animated, masked and creature characters from Disney, Marvel, Pixar and Star Wars, including costumes, props, vehicles, and iconic environments. In addition, ChatGPT Images will be able to turn a few words by the user into fully generated images in seconds, drawing from the same intellectual property. The agreement does not include any talent likenesses or voices. And it's not just Sora and ChatGPT that benefit from this partnership, it's OpenAI itself, which gained a key core "major" customer in the form of Disney: > Alongside the licensing agreement, Disney will become a major customer of OpenAI, using its APIs to build new products, tools, and experiences, including for Disney+, and deploying ChatGPT for its employees. Only after all of that, four paragraphs deep, do we get the other key element of the deal: > As part of the agreement, Disney will make a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI, and receive warrants to purchase additional equity. So that's not just a one-two punch, it's more like a one-two-three-four punch combo. With this last bit being key because Disney is obviously now going to be directly incentivized to favor any work and partnerships with OpenAI.[1](#one) Everyone else? Please stop using our IP immediately – or else. And, of course, it's arguably the most important IP on the planet. Certainly when it comes to image and video generation. Yes, it's limited to the "more than 200 animated, masked and creature characters" – which is clearly meant to protect actual actors and actresses – but it's just about as impressive of an IP list as you'll find: > Among the characters fans will be able to use in their creations are Mickey Mouse, Minnie Mouse, Lilo, Stitch, Ariel, Belle, Beast, Cinderella, Baymax, Simba, Mufasa, as well as characters from the worlds of Encanto, Frozen, Inside Out, Moana, Monsters Inc., Toy Story, Up, Zootopia, and many more; plus iconic animated or illustrated versions of Marvel and Lucasfilm characters like Black Panther, Captain America, Deadpool, Groot, Iron Man, Loki, Thor, Thanos, Darth Vader, Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, Leia, the Mandalorian, Stormtroopers, Yoda and more. [Sorry Vibes](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/), no Yoda for you. This also continues a trend and narrative around Disney being forward-thinking when it comes to new technology. They have long been famously first to partner with Apple on new initiatives – undoubtedly thanks to Steve Jobs being the largest shareholder and board member at Disney post [the Pixar deal](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/), and later, Bob Iger sitting on Apple's board – but also with [their large investment in Epic Games](https://spyglass.org/disney-epic/) a couple years back. With Iger now on the [verge of retirement](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%AD%20Disney%27s%20Two%2DMouse%20Race) – for real this time, we think – this could be his swan song deal for all we know: seeing Disney ushered into the AI era. That will undoubtedly have Hollywood up in arms yet again. We're in the midst of [everyone still losing it](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) over [the Netflix/Warner Bros deal](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/), and in walks Disney to cut a deal with whom many in the industry see as the actual devil in OpenAI (as the leader in AI). What a [dichotomy](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/)! So is Disney doing the right thing here? Time obviously will tell, but this is also fairly limited in scope – both time-bound and IP-bound – clearly on purpose. And working with a company to ensure better oversight of IP infractions seems like a better move than simply suing. Sorry, Midjourney, Character.ai, and now Google! A couple months ago, [I wondered if](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) we were on the verge of a (legal) IP tsunami on Sora, with celebrities rushing in to stake their claim just as others filed their claims on IP infringement. Well, this may actually be the moment. We'll see if others follow Disney's lead – and if OpenAI is going to be um, *open* to giving them equity deals as well. Undoubtedly, this leads Google, Meta, and everyone else to rush out to try to get their own, unique IP deals in place. Someone get David Zaslav on the phone, quick! It's not like Warner Bros is busy with anything else at the moment... For now, this feels like another Jedi mind trick maneuver by OpenAI. Hopefully it's one that doesn't end with, "I am altering the deal. *Pray I don't alter it any further*." **One more thing:** Soras on Disney+! This sounds silly, of course. [For now...](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/Gemini_Generated_Image_yuwcseyuwcseyuwc-1.png) Humorously, I couldn't get ChatGPT to create an image with Darth Vader. Gemini though... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-758.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) [Disney’s Epic AmbitionsDisney Has ‘Turned the Corner’ Bob Iger comes out swinging after a strong quarter... The New York Times Brooks Barnes After reporting great earnings yesterday, Disney came out swinging with a series of rapid-fire, large announcements: Robert A. Iger has insisted for months that his turnaround plan for Disney was![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-756.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-02-08-at-10.30.41-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/disney-epic/) [Will a Celebrity Tsunami Hit Sora?Or will they stay back, afraid of AI and worried about IP?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-760.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_4842-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-759.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) [Sora’s Slop Hits DifferentIt’s about creative comedy creation, stupid![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-757.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_ai_slop_content_--ar_169_--v_7_145f3cbb-2d2b-4461-b215-c60b89a53de4_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) --- 1 Just to state the obvious: [OpenAI needs the money too!](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) [↩](#) ### Meta Bought a Headache URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-tbd-ai-llama-headache/ Last updated: 2026-02-12T14:13:31.000Z Six months ago, Meta bet the farm. Okay, maybe not the *entire* business, but certainly the farm that their precious "Llama" was living on. After what seemed like [endless touting](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/) of how [their "open source" approach](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) to AI was right and that their models were "crushing it", the nearly $15B deal to "hackquire" Scale AI made it quite clear that their AI work to date [was actually "sus"](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). So how are things going? [Not great](https://giphy.com/gifs/mad-men-pete-campbell-not-great-bob-7yoAIR7CdWOUE?ref=spyglass.org), Zuck. [As Eli Tan reports today for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/technology/meta-ai-tbd-lab-friction.html?ref=spyglass.org), there are seemingly tensions galore internally at Meta – most notably between Meta's $15B man, Alexandr Wang, and Zuck's OG lieutenants in CPO Chris Cox and CTO Andrew Bosworth. Both are at or near 20 years at Facebook/Meta, but the whippersnapper with six months tenures is whipping and snapping, it seems... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters? URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T11:35:19.000Z I'm old enough to remember when the head of Netflix wasn't just downplaying the importance of movie theaters to the industry, he was eviscerating the entire concept as "outdated". That is to say, [I'm at least eight months old](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/netflix-ceo-ted-sarandos-movie-theaters-outdated-1236376565/?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, not even a year ago, Ted Sarandos was giving very public comments on stage to that effect. To the point where my headline in writing up his remarks was: [Ted Sarandos Screams "Fire!" at the Movie Theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/). The comments were especially noteworthy because he was also in the news at the time being floated as a potential external candidate for the Disney CEO role with Bob Iger on the retirement clock. Sarandos was quick to shoot down such rumors, but what else was he gonna say? Well, as it turns out he could say things about the theatrical business that make it clear he could not possibly run Disney with such a stance. As I wrote at the time: > On the other hand, there's no way you could dare say such a thing and have a job running any major movie studio – yes, even in 2025 – besides Netflix... > > Forget the CEO job of Disney, Sarandos may end up as auteur enemy number one with these comments. I think it's [safe to say](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%AD%20Disney%27s%20Two%2DMouse%20Race) that he's not getting the Disney job. But his company just made a bid in which he'd be in charge of the only studio with a *higher* share of [the theatrical market right now](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/2025/summary?ref=spyglass.org). Awkward. But also [fairly in line with Netflix's history](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) of proclaiming very loudly that they'd never do something, only to turn around and do it. This is exactly why [I predicted just over a year ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) that Netflix's next backtrack would be on their theatrical stance. And here we are. At the same time, I didn't expect us to get here exactly this way! That is to say, Netflix seems to be backtracking on their theatrical stance not on their own, but by backing into a new one: that of the company they're acquiring. Reading all the reports about the deal, it almost seems as if Sarandos decided Netflix had [a unique opportunity here](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) with Warner Bros and he was going to do it no matter the cost. Well, maybe not no matter the *cost* – we may see that soon enough depending on how high Paramount is willing to go to try to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat! – but no matter what stance he had to backtrack on. And now he's flipping that script and saying that part of *the rationale for the deal* was getting into the businesses that Netflix has not historically been in – including theatrical distribution. [Here he was](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ted-sarandos-netflix-responds-paramount-warner-bros-1236444961/?ref=spyglass.org) singing his *very* different tune at the UBS Conference yesterday: > "In this transaction, we pick up three businesses basically that we’re not currently in, meaning we have no redundancies currently, but one of them is a motion picture studio with a theatrical distribution machine. There’s been a lot of speculation what we would do with this. I think it’s important to note that all we are going to do with this is staying deeply committed to releasing those movies exactly the way they’ve released the movies today, all three of these new businesses we want to keep operating largely as they are, the theatrical business we have not talked a lot about in the past, about wanting to do it, because we’ve never been in that business. When this deal closes, we are in that business, and we’re going to do it." Obviously, the real key to that entire statement is "redundancies" – it's the corporate code word for layoffs. Sarandos is saying that a Netflix deal would lead to far less job loss in Hollywood than a Paramount deal, where "synergies" will be key to getting costs in line. But note the wording on his specific theatrical business remarks. Clearly, there's still some wiggle room in that statement – in particular, "largely" may be doing a lot of work. But the wiggle room seems to be shrinking by the day with such proclamations by Netflix around their theatrical aims with Warner Bros. What started as "expects" has grown into "largely" – from [Netflix's own press release about the deal last week](https://about.netflix.com/en/news/netflix-to-acquire-warner-bros?ref=spyglass.org): > Netflix expects to maintain Warner Bros.’ current operations and build on its strengths, including theatrical releases for films. But actually it started before that, [with leaks](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BD%EF%B8%8F%20Netflix%27s%20Warner%20Bros%20Bid%20Includes%20Theatrical%20Promise) around the news indicating that yes, Netflix intended to keep Warner Bros in the theatrical business with this deal – at least for now. But I mean, what else was Netflix going to say? That they were acquiring Warner Bros and shutting down the theatrical arm as soon as the deal closed? Come on. There may have been literal riots in Hollywood. This is perhaps the biggest question – amongst the many, *many* questions – that Netflix is going to keep getting about this deal. And that's in no small part because of the previous comments from Sarandos. Netflix isn't just battling Paramount here, they're battling Hollywood too – a place which you'd think would prefer Netflix take over one of the studios versus another studio full of "redundancies" just waiting to happen. But then again, they know David Ellison *loves* theatrical releases. Everyone saw *Top Gun: Maverick*, perhaps the *most* theatrical of theatrical releases this side of Christopher Nolan.[1](#one) And the reality is that right now, that one aspect may matter more to the town than anything else – even political bents. Because if Netflix [removes](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/will-netflix-release-warner-bros-movies-in-theaters-1236443116/?ref=spyglass.org) Warner Bros from the theatrical equation, the show is over. Again, while changing stances is nothing new for Netflix – and actually seems to be one of the *keys* to their continued success – the previous theatrical rhetoric is clearly coming back to bite Sarandos in the ass here. And the hostile counter-attack is certainly not going to help. Ellison is going to hammer this point home again and again. So Sarandos will need to go even more over-the-top to try to change Hollywoods' collective mind about his intentions. You're seeing it already: it's not just a commitment to seeing Warner Bros theatrical commitments through, *it's now that Netflix is doing the deal in part to get into that business*. I mean, it certainly sounds like total bullshit spin. But is it? Again, [I already made the case a year ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) why I believe Netflix would backtrack on this stance. As I laid out, there are a few reasons that basically boil down to: the relationship with talent, the power of marketing/halo effects, and yes, the fact that *they can actually make money doing it* – provided they do it smartly, which they presumably would. It's entirely possible that something woke them up to these notions over the past year – or a few things. Maybe it was [losing out on *Wuthering Heights* to... Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) (despite offering more money). Maybe it was Greta Gerwig [forcing Netflix to submit](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-045-the-tok-tiks-midnight/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%81%20Greta%20Gerwig%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98Narnia%E2%80%99%20Release%20Plans%20Finally%20Revealed) to an IMAX release for her [upcoming *Narnia* project](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/). Maybe it was the groundswell of support [that *Frankenstein* saw](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/) for a bigger theatrical push. Or the notion of how much money they're – [once again](https://mgs.blog/netflixs-glass-onion-slays-in-limited-release-6731debe3923?ref=spyglass.org) – leaving on the table with the *Knives Out* franchise. The [*Stranger Things* finale](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/) strategy (after [losing the Duffer Brothers to... Paramount](https://deadline.com/2025/08/duffer-brothers-paramount-deal-1236492061/?ref=spyglass.org)). And the cherry on top may have been [the success of *KPop Demon Hunters*](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/). The movie that [exploded at the box office](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) *weeks after it had already been on Netflix*. Clearly, there's something to be done here with movie theaters. The opportunities have kept falling on Netflix's head like one of those *Looney Tunes* anvils. Something else: if Netflix truly wants to become [the first $1T media company](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/), the only thing that matters is growth. They managed to get halfway there on the back of the streaming business, and can undoubtedly push it a bit further – and certainly Warner Bros content will help! – but they need other lines of business too. It makes sense that theatrical would be one of them. Warner Bros should do between $4B - $5B in box office revenue this year. Netflix overall did about $40B last year, so it wouldn't be a massive chunk of the business, but also not nothing. And the real key may be leveraging such distribution to create "halo effects" for their other businesses. Obviously streaming itself, but what if, say, they start to delve more into theme park-like experiences? Like, perhaps [opening up giant "Netflix Houses" in the carcasses of old shopping malls](https://spyglass.org/netflix-house-and-chill/)? You know, the places that used to house movie theaters? Funny that! Can cruise ships be far behind? [Poop Cruise](https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81763679?ref=spyglass.org) anyone? But really, throw in toys, merchandise, etc, and you can quickly see how Disney brings in around $100B a year. Sports also drives a good chunk of that – [something else Netflix has backtracked on, hard](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/), but really it's the IP straw that stirs the whole drink. And theatrical is a key part of creating a maintaining that value. Yes, in a way I'm saying that Netflix needs to become Disney before Disney can become... [you get](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) [the picture](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/).[2](#two) All I'm saying is that it's not insane to think that Netflix may actually have changed their mind on theatrical. And if that's the case, it might not be total bullshit that they're planning to remain committed to it with Warner Bros. Granted, I still believe the thinking will morph over time. As it should! And while Sarandos' remarks may have made the wrong kind of headlines if you want to say, *buy a major movie studio in a few months*, that doesn't mean he was totally wrong. The overall theatrical model actually broke a long time ago – long before COVID gave the industry a fall guy – as it has been in a state of overall decline for decades, with only jacked up ticket prices masking free-falling attendance. The situation was not tenable and streaming – yes, largely Netflix – just sped up the inevitable. That doesn't mean theatrical is over – see: above – it means it needs to [morph into a business that's appropriate for the 21st century](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). And Netflix, having now found religion on this topic, is uniquely suited to help usher in that reality. The other tech players [all see this too](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/), undoubtedly because they're not drunk on the nostalgia of what once was. And so Apple and Amazon can also help guide the way here – at which point the people in Hollywood reading this are probably vomiting. But the point is to find [the correct model that works](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/), not to prop up the one that doesn't. I know that's what Hollywood is hoping that Sarandos means with his new comments. That he will [use his studio to save the theaters](https://500ish.com/its-time-for-the-movie-studios-to-step-in-to-save-the-movie-theaters-9de38e26670c?ref=spyglass.org). But deal talking points aside, this clearly won't happen the way Hollywood hopes. Again, that doesn't mean Netflix is *lying* about this new stance, but it likely means they're going to figure out how to make it work *on their terms*. That's scary to hear too, but better than the alternative. When the alternative is a [continued slow death](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/). In the meantime, there's almost no way this deal is getting done for at least another year, and maybe two – *if it ever does*. So if nothing else, obviously Netflix can't say anything to rock the current boat while it's still in the water for the foreseeable future. But even when the deal closes – *if the deal closes* – I suspect the status quo with Warner Bros and theaters will be in place for at least another year and maybe two depending on pipeline. Again, if not, key Hollywood talent that has worked with Warner Bros – the [Denis Villeneuves](https://spyglass.org/tag/denis-villeneuve/) of the world – are going to take their talents elsewhere. They still might out of concern about this Netflix future, but hey, [Villeneuve is also making a *Bond* film](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) for Amazon. [Amazon!](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) So let's not clutch those pearls too tightly... The bigger question may be what happens if Netflix *doesn't* buy Warner Bros? Do they *still* opt to go down the theatrical path? I still bet they do... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/Gemini_Generated_Image_drn2tedrn2tedrn2.png) ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* --- **Update December 15, 2025**: Some further thoughts on Netflix's grander plans... [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-793.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1058.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-753.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--12.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Ted Sarandos Screams “Fire!” at the Movie TheatersHe’s not wrong, but is he right?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-752.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_movie_theater_on_fire_--ar_169_--profile_6kai7g7_--v__197a8ee1-ee91-484a-bea8-e0557b960f70_1-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-755.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-754.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) --- 1 And you can [just ask Tom Cruise](https://deadline.com/2024/07/david-ellison-tom-cruise-skydance-paramount-merger-1236005850/?ref=spyglass.org) – [or maybe, don't!](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/movies/articles/tom-cruise-clashed-david-ellison-230528999.html?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 2 But also, Netflix can't become *too much* like Disney, lest they start attracting the same stock multiple, which would be a huge issue for Netflix going forward – with Disney trading around 16x forward P/E versus 30x for Netflix! It still has to be all about growth. And tech. Andy making Wall Street believe they are not a traditional Hollywood player now... [↩](#) ### Apple Turnover URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-talent-exodus/ Last updated: 2026-02-12T14:12:44.000Z Two things can be true: the exodus Apple is seeing amongst their executive ranks is largely natural, and the exodus they're seeing elsewhere in the company is largely not. There have been [a number](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/silicon-valley-buzzing-apple-ceo-succession?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) of [stories](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/12/05/apple-succession-the-information?ref=spyglass.org) about this [topic](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-06/apple-rocked-by-executive-departures-with-johny-srouji-at-risk-of-leaving-next?ref=spyglass.org) over the past week. That too is natural given the high-profile people who are leaving the company. It started with COO Jeff Williams, who [pre-announced his retirement earlier this year](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/), but it's obviously always a big deal when a "number two" leaves a company... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie Studio URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T11:31:09.000Z At last, we've seemingly found something to unify the country. Everyone seems to hate [the Netflix deal to buy Warner Bros](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/). Republicans. Democrats. Rival studios. All of Hollywood. Even Netflix shareholders. Everyone. Well, aside from David Zaslav. But why? There are myriad answers to that question depending on who you are – I'll get into that. But if we just take a step back and look at the bigger picture... Um, to me, Netflix sure looks like a *fantastic* buyer and potential owner of a major Hollywood studio. Yes, I said it. Because yes, it's true. Before I go further, I will disclose that I own shares of Netflix. Actually, it was the first stock *I ever bought* for myself right after college. [I've written about this before](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org), the year was 2004 and I felt like I could see it... Before you get too envious, I had to sell those shares – along with the second stock I bought at the time, Apple – when I went into the world of reporting. Ugh. But a few years ago, I bought more Netflix shares again. Why? Because Bill Ackman was selling them.[1](#one) I'm not kidding, it was [right around the time that he was bailing](https://www.reuters.com/technology/ackmans-pershing-square-sells-netflix-investments-2022-04-20/?ref=spyglass.org). To me, that was obviously stupid and myopic. Netflix was and remains a great company. [I've been writing about this notion for 15+ years](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/18/killing-cable/?ref=spyglass.org). They're just built differently, certainly for an entertainment company,[2](#two) if you want to consider them that – we'll also get to that. Okay with that disclosure out of the way, let's back up a bit... Currently in Hollywood there are widely considered to be five major studios. Each year they jockey for position, over the past couple of decades, Disney is usually out in front. And that's interesting since they're also the only studio that hasn't been bought and sold like a commodity over the past 50 years. That's the thing: Everyone is freaking out about this Warner Bros news as if it's totally out of the blue for one of these studios to be bought. They are bought *all the time.* And often by far more problematic buyers than Netflix.Let's just do a quick overview. ### Universal Pictures Of the remaining "Big 5", Universal and Paramount were both started in 1912\. Universal was also the first one taken over thanks in no small part to the Great Depression, when their lenders had to step in. It's sort of a miracle they're still around. But you can thank Decca Records, yes, a music label in the 1950s which acquired the studio – the first such "synergy" of entertainment brands. A decade later, MCA (Music Corporation of America) acquired Decca and thus, Universal. And under the stewardship of [Lew Wasserman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lew%5FWasserman?ref=spyglass.org) for decades, it became a modern powerhouse. From there, in 1990, Panasonic bought MCA/Universal – surely because Sony had bought Columbia (more on them in a minute). It didn't really work out due to the undoubted culture clash between a Japanese electronics giant and a Hollywood entertainment brand. Five years later, Seagram bought the studio. Yes, this was Edgar Bronfman Jr.'s attempt to diversify his Canadian company away from spirits. *Yes, a liquor company owned a studio*. But also not for long as Seagram was merged with Vivendi – the French utility and media player. So yeah, in a decade a major Hollywood studio was swapped between the US and Japan and Canada and France. That's when GE – yes, the electric company – swooped in to buy the studio and merge it with NBC. That led to Comcast – the cable giant – coming in to buy those assets. And that's still where they reside today. And it's why Comcast was also in the running to buy Warner Bros. Paramount + WB would become the largest studio, but it would really be about merging Peacock and HBO Max, the former of which is clearly a sub-scale streamer relative to their peers. ### Paramount Pictures What started as an independent studio named "Famous Players" morphed into the Paramount powerhouse over a few decades until the famous ["Paramount Decree"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United%5FStates%5Fv.%5FParamount%5FPictures,%5FInc.?ref=spyglass.org) broke up the ability for a studio to also own and operate movie theaters in 1948\. This major Supreme Court decision was only fully unwound recently and [let Sony buy Alamo Drafthouse](https://spyglass.org/sony-dont-fuck-this-up/), for example. But it basically did Paramount in as a large, independent player. By the 1960s, Gulf + Western, a industrial conglomerate focused on um, auto parts, sugar, and zinc stepped in to buy the studio. They ran it very successfully for about 30 years – so much so that they spun off the industrial business and just focused on Paramount. That was until [Sumner Redstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumner%5FRedstone?ref=spyglass.org) entered the picture and used his own conglomerate – which itself started as a regional movie theater chain, National Amusements, but eventually bulked up via other acquisitions (Showtime, MTV, etc) into Viacom – to buy the studio. It remained in that family until last year when David Ellison's Skydance [famously bought it](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-part-ii/) – after a long, [exhausting courtship](https://spyglass.org/paramount-chomps-skydance/). Paramount has often been viewed as the fifth of the five studios in terms of market share in recent years, so adding Warner Bros – often in the top three, and *first* this year – would have been a big coup, clearly. Also Paramount+ is another of the sub-scale streamers relative to their peers. Adding HBO Max would have boosted that substantially – [this is exactly why I said](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/), and [predicted](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/), that Paramount would try to buy them. ### Sony Pictures Most people probably still think of Sony as a Japanese electronics giant (like Panasonic) even though PlayStation is now their largest business. But the movie studio now under that brand started as [Columbia Pictures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia%5FPictures?ref=spyglass.org) in 1918, with [the founding Cohn family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBC%5FFilm%5FSales%5FCorporation?ref=spyglass.org) running it into the 1950s when the last member of the family passed away. The studio struggled under various management (including, at one point, selling their actual studio lot and partnering with Warner Bros on their's in Burbank, and a hostile takeover attempt by [Kirk Kerkorian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk%5FKerkorian?ref=spyglass.org), the Las Vegas casino mogul who also controlled MGM – which led to an antitrust lawsuit) until the 1980s when Coca-Cola – yes, the beverage company – bought it. Why? "Synergies" of course. But it didn't last too long... Sony, yes *another* Japanese electronics giant, stepped in in 1989 – arguably the height of their power – to buy Columbia (and [Tri-Star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TriStar%5FPictures?ref=spyglass.org)). Betamax had just failed as the home video format in the face of VHS and Sony clearly wanted a way to ensure they'd be a player in entertainment. What better way than buying a major movie studio? One which they still own to this day. And one which, famously, doesn't have its own streaming service but instead [opted to do a deal with... Netflix](https://mgs.blog/sony-just-announced-their-streaming-service-its-called-netflix-79ea5b917aae?ref=spyglass.org) to license their content. That includes, notably, *KPop Demon Hunters* – and, in a weird twist of IP fate, *Spider-Man*. That streaming deal is up for renewal next year and it will be [fascinating](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) to see what both sides do. Will Netflix *even be allowed* to do a new deal with them given the Warner Bros acquisition? ### Walt Disney Pictures Started in 1923 by [you-know-who](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt%5FDisney?ref=spyglass.org). As noted, it's the only major studio to have not been bought and sold over the years. Disney went public in the 1940s and has been operated that way ever since. While the top shareholders have shifted over time – notably, [Steve Jobs](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/) became the largest shareholder after he sold Pixar to the company in 2006 – the family still has sway. Though not nearly as much as current CEO Bob Iger. Who is [on the verge](https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%AD%20Disney%27s%20Two%2DMouse%20Race) of retiring – [for real this time](https://mgs.blog/why-ill-really-miss-twitter-3f78fd688425?ref=spyglass.org), *we think*. As noted, they're the studio largely considered to be the top dog (even if they are technically behind Warner Bros this year after a sort of wild run of hits). And that's in no small part because of the acquisitions they've made – as opposed to constantly being acquired. Notably, the aforementioned Pixar, [but also Marvel](https://500ish.com/bob-iger-isnt-thanos-he-s-doctor-strange-56e8e86e283a?ref=spyglass.org), [Lucasfilm](https://500ish.com/disney-s-4-billion-steal-11fa4bf85dda?ref=spyglass.org), and most recently another one of the studios, 20th Century Fox (now called '20th Century Studios', since [Rupert Murdoch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert%5FMurdoch?ref=spyglass.org) still uses the 'Fox' branding for his television channels which he kept in the deal). ### Warner Bros Pictures Started the same year as Disney, the literal Warner brothers ([mainly Jack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack%5FL.%5FWarner?ref=spyglass.org)) ran it until the 1960s (a clear decade of change for most of the studios[3](#three)) when a perfect storm – namely the brothers hating each other and the studio underperforming – pushed Jack to sell to a smaller production company. A few years later, Kinney National – a, um, parking lot and funeral home company, swooped in. Once they rebranded it as Warner Communications, they actually ran it well, bulking up with other purchases like Atari (which at one point accounted for almost 70% of their profits during the video game boom) and launching MTV (later sold to Viacom after the subsequent video game crash nearly bankrupted Warner) into the 1980s. *(Note: I had originally said that they added DC Comics to the mix too, but actually the DC purchase \*predated\* the Warner Bros deal by about two years. Thanks* [*Belle*](https://bsky.app/profile/belleofball.bsky.social/post/3m7hqv5skgk2o?ref=spyglass.org)*.)* That's when Time, the publisher, entered the picture, merging to form the still well-known but defunct brand of Time Warner. But their infamous merger with AOL, an internet dial-up service, in 2000, and the fall of brands like Time itself, began a downward spiral that led to the AT&T deal in 2018, a telecom. This was, of course, a total disaster. [Certainly for HBO](https://500ish.com/its-not-hbo-it-s-tv-apparently-851c2afd469e?ref=spyglass.org), but really [for everyone](https://500ish.com/dont-mess-with-a-good-thing-7b4476498476?ref=spyglass.org). A pandemic didn't help but it was also just [a total self-own](https://500ish.com/at-t-monkeys-with-hbos-swing-403b3812bf52?ref=spyglass.org) on many fronts. Just four years later, "WarnerMedia" was spun off and merged with [David Zaslav's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David%5FZaslav?ref=spyglass.org) Discovery. In the past three years, while Zaslav has gotten paid a lot, and kept on [rebranding things](https://spyglass.org/its-hbo-max-again/), the stock kept sinking right up until this deal. ### What's the Deal? As you can see, the history of the movie studios is *all about M&A*. In that light, it's really sort of wild to see the reaction against this Netflix deal. It's just another in a decades-long string of deals. Record companies, electronics giants, liquor companies, utilities, cable companies, telecoms, industrial conglomerates, soda companies. I mean, to reiterate, Warner Bros itself was bought by a parking lot and funeral home company at one point. And people are worried about Netflix?! Of course, the reason why is obvious and perhaps somewhat warranted. Where as the other buyers of movie studios in the past may simply have had no idea what they were doing with a movie studio, Netflix certainly will. And the fact that their entire existence has been about upending the status quo of the industry, from Blockbuster Video on down, clearly is what has everyone in Hollywood shitting their pants. That is to say, whereas acquirers in the past ranged from passive to incompetent, Netflix is neither. And that could be a big problem. Certainly for said status quo. And Hollywood not only loves the status quo, the industry *thrives* on it. There is no greater example of an industry, perhaps outside of France, that has so much obvious bloat that could be cut to operate far more efficiently. Hollywood would say this is part of the allure and mystique of the industry. And sure, there's something to that. But not enough to continue operating as a declining industry in the 21st century. Every week, Hollywood is up in arms about the box office results that can't hold a candle to what they looked like pre-pandemic. But always brushed aside in these numbers is how much *worse* they would [actually](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org) look [*if shown relative to inflation*](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/)*.* The Titanic is at the bottom of the ocean and everyone in Hollywood is still trying to buy a ticket. Sadly, [no one else is buying tickets](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/). And let's not even dare look at the [theater admission per capita numbers](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org). Well, how about just a peek... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-07-at-10.46.39---AM.png)](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org) You'll note the peak, we're nearly 100 years removed from it at this point... Streaming, much like in music, has been the saving grace in terms of keeping such content actually relevant. And Netflix is the key there. Yet the studios all look to them much like the record labels looked to Apple after iTunes saved their asses post-Napster: they wonder why they gave them the keys to the kingdom, completely missing that if they hadn't, they'd be far more screwed. Perhaps dead. And so all of this mixed with the fact that we're entering uncharted waters yet again [in the form of the Age of AI](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/), has Hollywood shitting those pants. Everyone feels like they're going to die, but they're unclear which of the dozen causes it will be. Netflix buying Warner Bros is simply the latest in the string of calamities. And again, it's arguably the situation that makes the most sense. Was Paramount going to save Warner Bros? Comcast? Come on. The issue, which Hollywood refuses to acknowledge, is that the theatrical business as it once was is over. Because it was invented and thrived in a completely different world. Where people couldn't play movies in their homes. And would go to movie theaters for the air conditioning. To get out of the house. To do something. These days, for better or worse, there is no shortage of something to do. Yes, going to see a movie in a theater remains [an awesome experience](https://500ish.com/rage-rage-against-the-dying-of-cinema-f4098d75be41?ref=spyglass.org) – provided it's a nice one, [which it often is not](https://500ish.com/amcs-kabuki-theater-1844db319506?ref=spyglass.org), [which is a huge problem](https://500ish.com/spoiler-movie-theaters-are-dying-because-they-mostly-suck-a1662eace411?ref=spyglass.org). Instead, we have the theater chains [trying to milk profits](https://spyglass.org/movie-theater-ads/) out of the remaining literally captive audience. How do we think that ends? [But what if we just add Smell-O-Vision?](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) [There are few things I love more](https://500ish.com/once-upon-a-time-in-a-cinema-c5991e1b7fe3?ref=spyglass.org) than seeing a great movie in a cinematic palace. But I'm a film buff. Most people are not – and by the way, *they* *never will be* unless you make movies available where they want to watch them. Which is at home, on Netflix (or the other streaming services). On one hand, this sucks. On the other, it's progress. Nearly every person on Earth can watch movies now. That they're not watching them on 100-foot screens makes them perhaps less grandiose, but no less magical. And let's also acknowledge the other awkward truth: AI could very well make it so that anyone can *make* a movie. Not today, not tomorrow, but the way things are headed, at some point in the next several years. Will this ruin movies? I mean, if you're a current gatekeeper, then sure. But for the actual art form, of course not. This is not about *robots* [making slop](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/), it's about [*humans* leveraging new tools](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) to expand creation. So get your heads out of your stuck-up asses, Hollywood. Because regardless of what I say or if this deal does or does not happen, this is all happening. At least Netflix can help bridge the divide between the old ways and the new world we're entering. Yes, [they're annoying](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) with the theatrical stance, but [they were always going to backtrack on that in some ways](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). But not fully, because they shouldn't. Because [it's silly](https://500ish.com/the-future-of-cinema-2e0240d83507?ref=spyglass.org) in 2025 to think that *every* movie should play in a movie theater first – let alone for *months* at a time. [Some movies absolutely should go to theaters](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). And Netflix will make a lot of money leveraging that model. But they probably only need to be there for a few weeks at most. [Other movies shouldn't](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) go there at all. Perhaps they should go to Netflix first, [like *KPop*](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/), and then they can pop when put in theaters for special events later. Or movies that breakout on streaming get sequels that go to theaters. And [shows that are ending](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org) [put their finales in theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/). Or shows that [turn into movies](https://500ish.com/inside-outside-2117bd44b755?ref=spyglass.org) more regularly. And vice versa! And Netflix can enable so much of this [because of their platform](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/). Leveraging such a powerful surface can drive people to actually go to movie theaters again, *imagine that*! There are [so many ideas here](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) that are obvious and yet completely [underutilized](https://500ish.com/from-binge-watching-to-appointment-viewing-8baa2e07c671?ref=spyglass.org) because they're simply not [the old way of doing things](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). And Netflix is [a huge middle finger](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) to that old way of doing things. And that's why Hollywood is scared shitless right now. Acquisitions and antitrust? Come on – just look at who was doing these deals before. The entire industry needs to grow up [and evolve](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) if they're going to survive what's coming. And this Netflix deal offers them a path to do just that. And so they'll do everything they can to make sure it doesn't happen. ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* --- **Update December 9, 2025**: Just how legit is Netflix's movie theater talk? [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-796.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) **Update December 15, 2025**: And some further thoughts on Netflix's bigger play... [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-797.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1054.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 1 While some people have anti-Cathie Wood or anti-Jim Cramer portfolios, I'm a sucker for the anti-Ackman portfolio bet. It has worked well, so far, for Netflix. [↩](#) 2 In fact, given that the stock has been hit a bit in recent months, and certainly on this news, I think I'm a buyer again. (This is not investment advice.) My only reluctance is that this deal really may never be completed, for reasons that are sort of out of their control. But long term, I would bet on Netflix and Disney ([and IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/)) and that's about it in this general world. [↩](#) 3 Also around the time when MGM fell from grace. An iconic studio which went on to be traded hands many times – now, famously, with Amazon owning them. A tech giant! The horror! (I reserve the right to amend this snark [if they fuck up Bond](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/). So far, [so good](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/).) [↩](#) ### Signal: Streaming Time is a Flat Circle 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-streaming-time-is-a-flat-circle/ Last updated: 2025-12-05T21:36:11.000Z Earlier today, on the back of the [reporting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/warner-bros-is-said-to-begin-exclusive-deal-talks-with-netflix?srnd=homepage-americas&ref=spyglass.org) that Netflix was closing in on a deal with Warner Bros Discovery, [I wrote up some thoughts](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/). It's obviously a massive deal with ramifications both for entertainment and tech. Just a few hours later, [Netflix confirmed](https://about.netflix.com/en/news/netflix-to-acquire-warner-bros?ref=spyglass.org) the $82.7B cash-and-stock deal. Mind you, that's just for the Warner Bros studio and HBO Max streaming service, the cable channel assets will still be spun-out ahead of this deal closing. So yeah, it's a big price. And certainly a deal unlike any Netflix has done before. While investors clearly dislike the deal (Netflix's stock has been down between 3% and 5% on a day the overall market is up), it could make quite a bit of sense – if it actually gets completed. Netflix is going to have a hell of a fight on their hands on a few fronts there. Including with Hollywood in general, which clearly does not want to lose another studio, let alone such a historic one, to the hands of tech. But I also don't think it will end up being a bad thing for that industry in the long run. Which is just an impossible thing to hear right now, but it's an industry on the verge of everything being thrown into disarray with AI. For now, I'll just tout [my predictions from last year](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/), both that WBD would be acquired, but also that [Netflix would eventually backtrack on their theatrical release stance](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). Both look good right now. But again, there's a long way to go here. Get the popcorn ready. [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-746.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) --- ### The Inner Ring... [OpenAI’s One Battle After AnotherBeyond the Google threat, if Anthropic were to IPO before OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-739.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/sqecfsc98p4g1-2-2.gif)](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) [The AI Snow Globe is Shaken2025 is ending with “Code Reds”, “retirements”, new models, worries about old models, new chips, worries about old chips, crushed earnings, stock shorting, oh my…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-740.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_xl1t7xl1t7xl1t7x-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) [Live and Let DyeThe exit of Alan Dye augurs another Apple shift in UI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-741.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/as.png)](https://spyglass.org/alan-dye-apple-meta-ui/) --- ### Thoughts On... **🌍** [**Meta Not Investing in Yann LeCun's "World Model" Startup**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/ai-pioneer-lecun-says-meta-won-t-invest-in-world-model-startup?ref=spyglass.org) – As [expected](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/), while everyone was saying the right things around his exit – how the two sides would continue to work together, yadda, yadda – it sure sounds like Meta won't be investing in his new startup *because he doesn't want them investing in his new startup*. In fact, he seemingly doesn't want to have anything to do with Silicon Valley anymore – or at least, for now: "Silicon Valley is completely hypnotized by generative models. So you have to do this kind of work outside of the Valley, in Paris." Hypnotized to the point of [spending $15B or so](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) to reboot your AI work with offering [billion-dollar comp packages](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/), perhaps? He also seemingly confirmed that Meta wasn't interested in his new work – [will that end up a mistake](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/)? [Plenty of others clearly are](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8E%20World%20Models%2C%20So%20Hot%20Right%20Now)! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/ai-pioneer-lecun-says-meta-won-t-invest-in-world-model-startup?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🇪🇺** [**The EU Strikes Back**](https://www.ft.com/content/66f20eec-1734-4eea-9ca3-7ac1d88258ab?ref=spyglass.org) – While [it has seemed](https://spyglass.org/eu-big-tech-threats/) like regulators in Europe were [taking their foot off the gas a bit](https://spyglass.org/eu-apple-meta-dma-fine/) with both their own regime change, as well as the situation with the Trump administration, they're clearly still finding new and interesting ways to go after Big Tech. I actually think the probe into Meta over the use of AI within WhatsApp is the type of thing that *should* be looked into – not because it's Meta, but because all of the scaled players [have crazy advantages when it comes to distribution](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) of their AI tools. It's probably what should have been more of the focus [in the Google antitrust remedies](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/), but instead the rise of AI [ended up *helping* Google](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) (as it is [naturally disrupting Search](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/)). Note that this has nothing to do with the DMA and is simply a probe for now – [the EU loves to launch probes](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-probes-big-tech/). Which is still a problem because some seem like completely political [wastes of time](https://spyglass.org/eu-to-meta-drop-dead/) ([or worse](https://spyglass.org/eu-no-tech-zone/)) while others seem warranted. On a tangential note, I will admit that I do find it somewhat humorous that [the EU is fining Xitter $140M](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/technology/eu-elon-musk-x-140-million-fine.html?ref=spyglass.org) – what characters. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/66f20eec-1734-4eea-9ca3-7ac1d88258ab?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** 🐭 [**Disney's Two-Mouse Race**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/disney-bob-iger-next-ceo-f571257c?ref=spyglass.org) – It has felt for a while like the battle to succeed Bob Iger as Disney CEO was down to two candidates: Josh D'Amaro and Dana Walden and this reporting all-but-confirms it. Further, it has also at least looked from the outside like [D'Amaro has pulled ahead](https://spyglass.org/off-to-the-ai-races/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%AD%20Disney%20Names%20James%20Gorman%20Chairman%2C%20Sets%20%E2%80%98Early%202026%E2%80%99%20for%20CEO%20Change) over [the past year or so](https://spyglass.org/disney-cruises-to-damaro/). While it's undoubtedly unfair to use Walden's friendship with Kamala Harris as a data point here, it also probably has to be taken into account because a certain President of the United States will take it into account. And the flip side was also true: had Harris won, such a relationship undoubtedly would have boosted Walden. So it's bad timing/luck. And the [Jimmy Kimmel debacle](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%90%20Jimmy%20Kimmel%20No%20Longer%20Live) [probably doesn't help](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%A3%20Jimmy%20Kimmel%20Tick%2DTock) either. But one new question: does the Netflix/Warner deal change the equation at all? Presumably not, but Walden's role will be even more vital, so could Disney convince her to stay even if not in the top job? [Co-CEOs has to be out of the question, right?](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=While%20the%20story,arrangement...%20%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) Even though it's working for Netflix! Sort of wild that 2026 could see new leaders atop two of the major studios... **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/disney-bob-iger-next-ceo-f571257c?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💸** [**Michael Burry's 1999**](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/foundations-my-1999-and-part-of-2000) – A fun read where he goes into his backstory around the Dot Com Bubble. Personally, I had no idea that he was sort of casually writing about stocks on the side of his work as a resident physician at Stanford Hospital. His favorite topic? Like any good blogger: Apple. "Great companies can be missed for a long period of time. Apple was one of them. At the time, I liked where it sat in the culture of creative computing, with a very proprietary angle and a knack for minor hits and long draughts. Plus they had just released their Blueberry, Strawberry, Tangerine, Grape, and Lime iMacs. And I thought, yep, this is the reason to own Apple." He was not wrong. Though perhaps early. See also: [his recent podcast with *Big Short* author Michael Lewis](https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/against-the-rules/michael-burry-speaks?ref=spyglass.org) where he talks through his (more nuanced) thinking around [his recent short positions](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) on Palantir [and NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/). Basically, he simply thinks [the AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) is going to burst within the next couple years. **\[**[**Cassandra Unchained**](https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/foundations-my-1999-and-part-of-2000)**\]** --- ### I Wrote... [Drop the ‘Meta’. It’s Cleaner.Meta contemplates a step back from the Metaverse…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-742.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_Zuck_wearing_a_VR_headset_cartoon_16x9_--ar_169_--v_7_901ec277-bf44-4ef5-b94f-340a13285b85_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/) [With Both Apple & AI, Timing Remains EverythingA discussion that bridges and connects those worlds…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-743.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_x8d9o5x8d9o5x8d9-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/) [Intel Inside, In a WayApple closes in on throwing Intel that fab bone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-744.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_jgnc1sjgnc1sjgnc-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) [Flakes on a Plane‘Flight Risk’ is soaringly awful…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-745.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BM2Q2MjQxNmMtMmFiYy00YzFhLTkzZjYtNTNlNjVmMjFmYzU1XkEyXkFqcGdeQWFybm8@._V1_.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/flakes-on-a-plane/) --- ### I Quote... > "We as a company try to manage as responsibly as we can. And then I think there are some players who are YOLO-ing." – **Dario Amodei** [speaking at](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/anthropic-ceo-says-some-tech-firms-too-risky-with-ai-spending?ref=spyglass.org) the [*New York Times* DealBook Summit](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/business/dealbook/anthropic-dario-amodei-ai-risks.html?ref=spyglass.org) about some unnamed competitors, at least one of which is pretty clearly the place he used to work: OpenAI. This is basically the point I was making in writing ["AGI or Bust"](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). Great risk, great reward, and all that. But [Anthropic's more prudent approach](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) could pay off [depending on](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) the markets... [In the same talk](https://sources.news/p/anthropics-ai-bubble-yolo-warning?ref=spyglass.org), Amodei also said he thinks scaling (LLMs) will get us to AGI eventually (i.e. [he doesn't think we need new models](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) – which makes sense for him to say that since, at least as far as anyone knows, Anthropic isn't working on other models). And yes, he also had a fun quote about how they don't do ["Code Reds"](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/) – like [that other company](https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/) he dare not name. --- ### Asides... - Speaking of... is it more like "Code Red for thee, not for me" over at **OpenAI** with **Sam Altman** exploring building a um, **SpaceX** competitor?! **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-has-explored-deal-to-build-competitor-to-elon-musks-spacex-01574ff7?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - To be fair, it seems like he was discussing this months ago, before the actual **Code Red** – though perhaps not before the **Code Orange**! Regardless, it adds to the narrative that OpenAI perhaps needs to focus a bit more from the top down... - OTOH, there is a world where being able to launch things into space is a huge strategic advantage in **AI**, if say, you need to launch **data centers in to space**... - **One more thing**: an aside in that story was that the **OpenAI**/**NVIDIA** [deal](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-has-explored-deal-to-build-competitor-to-elon-musks-spacex-01574ff7?ref=spyglass.org) is *still not finalized* apparently. Um... - How upset was **Masa Son** that [he had to sell](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) **SoftBank's** **NVIDIA's** shares in order to fund his continued partnership with OpenAI? He was apparently "crying" about it. Which just raises the question how he felt after [the last sale](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20The%20Mystery%20of%20Masayoshi%20Son%2C%20SoftBank%E2%80%99s%20Great%20Disrupter) that literally ended up [costing him *hundreds of billions*](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=SoftBank%20being%20forced,worth%20%24250B.). **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/softbank-masayoshi-son-crying-nvidia-stake-ai-bet-artificial-intelligence-bubble-vision-fund.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Happy **3rd birthday** **ChatGPT**. Amazing how much has changed. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/30/chatgpt-launched-three-years-ago-today/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Add ***The New York Times*** [and](https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/04/chicago-tribune-sues-perplexity/?ref=spyglass.org) ***The Chicago Tribune*** to the [growing list](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/wall-street-journal-new-york-post-sue-perplexity-ai-c5d9554d?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) of media ([and non-media](https://spyglass.org/ai-browsers-breaking-web/)) companies suing **Perplexity**. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/technology/new-york-times-perplexity-ai-lawsuit.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Meanwhile, some **news publishers** have signed deals with **Meta** to use their content within **AI** products. [Unlike the last 35 times](https://mgs.blog/good-grief-publishers-d08a1fc9bef8?ref=spyglass.org), Charlie Brown is going to *totally* kick the football this time. Lucy will not pull it at the last minute. Not a chance... **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/05/meta-ai-deals-news-publishers?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - While I just spent much of the day praising **Netflix**, I will say that killing off the ability to "**cast**" content to TVs is pretty annoying. I use this quite often at say, hotels. But above all else, [Netflix wants to be in control](https://spyglass.org/netflix-apple-tv/)... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/834655/netflix-phone-casting-chromecast-support-killed?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Jumping to a scene in any movie on a **Fire TV** by describing it to **Alexa** seems like a fun showcase of their **AI capabilities**, but it is just a party trick? Who wants to jump to an exact scene of a movie that often? Isn't that what YouTube is for? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/amazon-fire-tv-ai-describe-scene-prime-video-1236440276/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... With all the talk of [the AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/), you often hear OpenAI's spend talked about in context of what both Uber spent to get to profitability and before that, Amazon. Well, Jim Reid and Deutsche Bank actually [charted it out](https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1996595595184579003?s=20&ref=spyglass.org). And... wow. Code Red indeed. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/G7VVEFiWgAAUt9f.jpeg)](https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1996595595184579003?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) ### The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner Bros URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/ Last updated: 2026-02-27T11:28:58.000Z "Time is a flat circle," Rust Cohle tells investigators in HBO's hit show *True Detective*. He is, of course, conjuring Nietzsche while waxing poetic about the nature of life coming back around. In that way, it's the perfect encapsulation of the current situation with Warner Bros Discovery and Netflix. Almost exactly 15 years ago to the day, then-CEO of Time Warner, Jeff Bewkes, gave [an interview to *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/business/media/13bewkes.html?%5Fr=2&ref=media) on the topic of Netflix: > Now many of the companies that make the shows and movies that Netflix delivers to mailboxes, computer screens and televisions companies whose stocks have not enjoyed the same frothy rise, and whose chief executives have not won the same accolades are pushing back, arguing that the company is overhyped, and vowing to charge much more to license their content. > > “It’s a little bit like, is the Albanian army going to take over the world?” said Jeffrey L. Bewkes, the chief executive of Time Warner, in an interview last week. “I don’t think so.” Maybe not the *entire* world (yet), but Bewkes' (former) world in the form of Warner Bros? Yes. [As Lucas Shaw and Michelle F Davis scoop for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/warner-bros-is-said-to-begin-exclusive-deal-talks-with-netflix?srnd=homepage-americas&ref=spyglass.org): > Warner Bros. Discovery has entered exclusive negotiations to sell its film and TV studios and HBO Max streaming service to Netflix, according to people familiar with the discussions. > > Netflix is offering a $5 billion breakup fee if regulators don’t approve the deal, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the discussions are private. The two companies could announce a deal as soon as in the coming days, assuming talks don’t fall apart, the people said. The move suggests Netflix has pulled ahead of Paramount Skydance and Comcast, who were also competing for the asset. *\[*Update*: Netflix has now formally announced the deal,* [*see below*](#update)*\]* This wild turn of events is far from complete, of course. And, it's so contentious right now that it may very well *never* be completed. [This is a deal](https://spyglass.org/signal-blue-binge/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8E%9E%EF%B8%8F%20Could%20Netflix%20Win%20Warner%20Bros%3F) with such big [ramifications](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%BF%20The%20Battle%20for%20Warner%20Bros%20%28and%20HBO%29) that it has many players up in arms, from Washington to Hollywood. But none more so than Paramount, [as the first suitor](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) now scorned. In a way, I'm reminded of when Warner Bros Discovery was [scorned by the NBA](https://spyglass.org/ill-sue-you-to-show-i-love-you/) in favor of [a deal with Amazon](https://spyglass.org/amazon-dunks-on-tnt/). Or when [other bidders](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount/) for Paramount felt [scorned](https://spyglass.org/paramount-chomps-skydance/) when the company [went with Skydance](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-part-ii/). It all comes back around... One of [my predictions heading into 2025](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) was that *someone* would buy Warner Bros Discovery. I even guessed that Paramount might be interested in [further bulking up](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) post-Skydance deal. While a tech company was always going to be a wild card, to me, [Apple always seemed](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) like the [most logical](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) bidder given both their size, ([relatively weak](https://500ish.com/hbos-corpus-of-content-and-apple-s-lack-thereof-12fd1d6e858e?ref=spyglass.org)) [position](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) with Apple TV+,[1](#one) and the fact that Eddy Cue had [tried once before to buy HBO](https://www.ft.com/content/a3bf618a-22ec-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d?ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) As the most entertainment pure-player in tech, Netflix always lingered, but this type of deal almost seemed like an *anti*\-Netflix deal, something they would have seemingly never done in the past. But as I know better than perhaps anyone, Netflix *loves* to say they'll never do something, only to change their minds a few years later and go all-in on whatever the previously ridiculed idea was. In this way, they're like Apple, actually. [As I wrote coming up on 15 years ago now](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/18/killing-cable/?ref=spyglass.org): > Netflix has [confirmed](http://blog.netflix.com/2011/03/house-of-cards.html?ref=spyglass.org) that they intend to pay for House of Cards a new show being produced by David Fincher (yes, he of Fight Club, The Social Network, etc) and starring Kevin Spacey (yes, he of The Usual Suspects, American Beauty, etc). Netflix is not paying for the full production of it, but instead they’re paying for the first-rights access to air it. In other words, they get the first “window” to show it to viewers. > > And while the company is saying that this [isn’t a shift in strategy](http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20110318/netflix-bets-big-on-house-of-cards-but-swears-its-not-a-radical-departure-qa-with-content-boss-ted-sarandos/?ref=spyglass.org), it could end up being potentially much more than that. > > Up until now, Netflix has not had content in this first window. Instead, they’ve focused on the second or third or even fourth window. That is, they’ve shown content after it’s in theaters or on television for its initial run. And sometimes they don’t get content until after it’s been in theaters and then on television for quite some time. This catalog of content has been the service’s bread and butter. > > But with House of Cards, the game changes. For the first time, they’re going to get people signing up to Netflix to get first access to content. And if it’s as good as the talent behind it suggests, they might get a lot of people signing up for that very reason. > > And if that’s the case, they’ll be doing a lot more of these deals. And that would effectively make them a premium cable television channel — like HBO or Showtime. But they’ll be one with thousands more pieces of content for a lower monthly price. And they’ll be one not burdened by any artificial show times. Most importantly, they’ll be one not burdened by the cable television model — at all. **Narrator**: *it was, as it turns out, a shift in strategy. And yes, much more.* Netflix was never going to do ads – [until they did ads](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/). Netflix was never going to do live – [until they did live](https://spyglass.org/raw-is-streaming-war/). Tangential to that, Netflix was never going to do sports – [until they did sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/). And as I also predicted last year, Netflix was never going to change their mind about theatrical distribution – [until they inevitably did](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). This deal would [all-but ensure](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BD%EF%B8%8F%20Netflix%27s%20Warner%20Bros%20Bid%20Includes%20Theatrical%20Promise) such a backtrack becomes reality. I think [it would have happened regardless](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) at some point (and still probably will even if this deal doesn't happen), and [was already](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) happening [in some ways](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/), but this just speeds up the process and the rationale for going against such [a seemingly adamant stance](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/). But the bigger shift will be [the deal for WBD itself](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/). Assuming the reports are accurate that Netflix's bid is [the largest](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/paramount-raises-breakup-fee-in-warner-bros-bid-to-5-billion?ref=spyglass.org) – does this really mean that their offer for just the studio + streamer is bigger than Paramount's offer for *the entire company*?! – this deal will be well north of $50B. Perhaps as high as $75B. [Perhaps more](https://variety.com/2025/biz/news/paramount-skydance-bid-warner-bros-discovery-arab-wealth-funds-1236597217/?ref=spyglass.org)! And apparently [almost entirely in cash](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-01/warner-bros-gets-mostly-cash-netflix-offer-in-new-round-of-bids?ref=spyglass.org). **\[See:** [**update below**](#update)**\]** Netflix undoubtedly will take on debt to make that payment, and so that will be a fun return to some old arguments as well. Remember when everyone was up-in-arms about the amount of debt Netflix was leveraging to produce their content? No one talks about that anymore as it ended up being a smart lever to [win streaming](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/). And winning streaming has allowed them to do this deal. At the same time, that position will also give them *headaches* for this deal. Given Netflix's streaming stature, Paramount has focused in on making the case as to why the DoJ will never approve such a deal (and [they may go hostile](https://nypost.com/2025/12/02/media/paramount-skydance-has-a-plan-b-if-netflix-wins-auction-for-warner-bros-discovery-sources/?ref=spyglass.org), driving those points home). And several regulators are already echoing as much – [including, it seems, the US AG's office](https://nypost.com/2025/12/03/media/netflix-acquisition-of-warner-bros-studio-and-hbo-max-would-face-stiff-doj-antitrust-opposition-sources/?ref=spyglass.org). This is ramping fast, with many scorned lover letters having [apparently been sent](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-raises-concerns-about-netflixs-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery-1ef9a8c5?ref=spyglass.org). And now legal threats are [in play too](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/paramount-questions-warner-bros-discovery-sale-process-letter.html?ref=spyglass.org)... On the flip side, Paramount Skydance says any deal they did with WBD could sail through – even though they just did a smaller deal (for Paramount itself) which was held up for *months* by regulators. Implied in this, of course, is that the Ellison family now has their "in" with President Trump to make such a deal happen faster this time. (And naturally, [to pressure the other one, perhaps](https://nypost.com/2025/11/30/business/white-house-officials-have-raised-antitrust-concerns-over-netflixs-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery-sources/?ref=spyglass.org).) Did, say, [cancelling a certain late night show](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/), and [other curious concessions](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B0%20Paramount%20Buys%20The%20Free%20Press) grease those wheels? Well, at the very least, they couldn't have hurt! Oh yeah, and then there's Comcast. Poor Comcast. Big enough to make a bid but not big enough to be taken seriously, even though they [arguably need Warner Bros assets the most](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/comcast-s-bid-seeks-to-merge-nbcuniversal-unit-with-warner-bros?ref=spyglass.org). Perhaps they could team up with Paramount? Netflix, for their part,[3](#three) will argue that streaming services aren't the actual market for regulators to worry about here, but rather the broader "time spent" category for eyeballs. Certainly, [this includes YouTube](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/), the only video service larger than Netflix. But also increasingly Spotify, TikTok, and other tangential networks. In this way, it will be similar to [the (winning) argument](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) that Meta made against the FTC [in their antitrust case](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/). Forget about social networks, this is about the future of *time spent*. And it even has parallels with the Google antitrust case which saw the search giant [avoid major remedies](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) because well, think to [the future](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/): AI. Netflix's future is trying to grow from a $500B company [into a $1T company](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) – the first "media" company to do so. Would anyone bet against them? I certainly wouldn't. [I've been quite vocal about this](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org) for [years](https://500ish.com/the-squid-the-whale-revisited-ecfd0acc2f64?ref=spyglass.org) and [years](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/19/netflix-cult-hits/?ref=spyglass.org). They're simply the smartest and most forward-thinking company that bridges tech and entertainment. As we enter the [brave new world of AI](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/), they'll be right there too. To that end, don't be shocked if while everyone is up-in-arms in Hollywood today about this deal, worried that it will be the end of yet another major studio and perhaps the entire system, that they end up viewing Netflix as *a sort of savior* in the future [when AI comes knocking](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) on everyones' door. Just another prediction I'll throw out there: This deal, if it happens (very much not a sure thing), could end up being *very good* for Hollywood. It's an industry that has long needed the biggest kick in the ass. And Netflix kicks ass. So we can all look back on the "Albanian Army" comment now and laugh. Because they're here. At the gates. **One more thing:** Back to the concept of time being a flat circle... some may recall [another famous/infamous quote](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) between Netflix and Warners. In 2013, then-Chief Content Officer of Netflix Ted Sarandos [quipped](https://gizmodo.com/netflix-the-goal-is-to-become-hbo-faster-than-hbo-can-5980103?ref=spyglass.org) that the company's goal was "to become HBO faster than HBO can become us." Sarandos, now, of course (co) CEO of Netflix, [has gone on to note](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/magazine/ted-sarandos-netflix-interview.html?ref=spyglass.org) how he regretted the comment because it was sort of comically limited in scope relative to what Netflix would go on to become. But it sure takes on a different light with this news! In a way, it would fulfill the goal. Netflix *would* become HBO... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/12/mc-conaughey-true.gif) ***Disclosure:** *I own a relatively small amount of shares in Netflix and have for years (*[**though not as long as I should have*](https://500ish.com/the-squid-218be9939cdf?ref=spyglass.org)**), for the reasons outlined above. That said, in some ways, it's probably better for the stock in the short term to \*not\* do this deal. But longer term, I'm bullish on Netflix owning Warner Bros, if it happens.* --- **Update**: [Netflix has now confirmed the deal](https://about.netflix.com/en/news/netflix-to-acquire-warner-bros?ref=spyglass.org), a "cash and stock transaction is valued at $27.75 per WBD share (subject to a collar as detailed below), with a total enterprise value of approximately $82.7 billion (equity value of $72.0 billion)." Now the fun begins. Per the release, it sounds like they're not anticipating these deal closing before Q3 2026 at the earliest, and it could be quite a bit longer depending on the reviews, challenges, etc... Bust out that popcorn. --- **Update December 6, 2025**: Some further thoughts... [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-749.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) **Update December 9, 2025**: Just how legit are Netflix's movie theater claims... [Has Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re \*saying\* the right things, will they follow through…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-795.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_htw3bkhtw3bkhtw3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical/) **Update December 15, 2025**: And more thoughts still on on Netflix's grander plans... [The Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-794.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_Netflix_logo_surrounded_by_planets_and_the_universe_1_2782a891-dd3a-46f6-838e-dd86a9474f9f_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/grand-netflix-hollywood-unification-theory/) --- **Update February 27, 2026**: And it's over, with Paramount upping their bid, Netflix has walked away... [TUDUMBParamount breaks the wrist, Netflix walks away from Warner Bros…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1053.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-27--2026--11_19_38-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-paramount-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix’s New Goal May Be to Buy HBO Before HBO Can Be BoughtBig Tech will have a hard time making the case to Wall Street in the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-735.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-27--2025--08_56_22-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) [Paramount Skydance’s Blockbuster Bid for Warner Bros DiscoveryOne good idea, so many names…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-734.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wbmount2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-737.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--10.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [The Greatest Trick Netflix Ever Pulled......was convincing the world they weren’t interested in live sports![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-733.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-26-at-8.07.19-PM-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) [The $1T Media CompanyNetflix has owned Hollywood, and aims to keep doing so…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-736.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_netflix_logo_on_a_rocketship_--ar_169_--profil_c0ae6366-d703-446e-8afe-966bfa73af59_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) --- 1 Yes, now [confusingly just called 'Apple TV'](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/). [↩](#) 2 [He couldn't figure out a deal with... Jeff Bewkes!](https://www.vox.com/recode/22788096/hbo-netflix-apple-book-tindberbox-james-andrew-miller?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 3 They are [also arguing](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/netflix-warner-bros-discovery-combo-seen-lowering-costs-consumers-sources-say-2025-12-03/?ref=spyglass.org) that this deal will be *good* for consumers – still a key tenant of [current antitrust thinking](https://spyglass.org/modern-antitrust-keeps-failing/) – because a Netflix/HBO Max combo/bundle will bring [ever-increasing streaming subscription costs](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) down. Presumably by removing one player from the market! [↩](#) ### Drop the 'Meta'. It's Cleaner. URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-minus-metaverse/ Last updated: 2026-02-07T17:26:10.000Z [ Meta’s Zuckerberg Plans Deep Cuts for Metaverse Efforts Mark Zuckerberg is expected to cut resources for building the metaverse, an effort he once framed as the future of the company... ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Kurt Wagner ![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iXC7Efs_68eM/v0/2000x1333.webp) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/meta-s-zuckerberg-plans-deep-cuts-for-metaverse-efforts?ref=spyglass.org) Well this is awkward: > Meta Platforms Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg is expected to meaningfully cut resources for building the so-called metaverse, an effort that he once framed as the future of the company and the reason for changing its name from Facebook Inc. > > Executives are considering potential budget cuts as high as 30% for the metaverse group next year, which includes the virtual worlds product [Meta Horizon Worlds](https://horizon.meta.com/?locale=en%5FUS&ref=spyglass.org) and its Quest virtual reality unit, according to people familiar with the talks, who asked not to be named while discussing private company plans. Cuts that high would most likely include layoffs as early as January, according to the people, though a final decision has not yet been made. It also has long felt inevitable. At their conference a few months ago, Mark Zuckerberg threw the Metaverse a few bones, but it was clear where his mind really was, and where he was spending most of his time: AI. The new, *new* thing. [As I wrote in September](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/): > As you may recall, this is a company that was once called Facebook. But now that's just one of many apps in their arsenal. The company shifted to 'Meta' after they bought Oculus and clearly believed that VR would be the future of computing.As it turns out, such thinking may have been premature. In fact, [it's still not clear](https://500ish.com/facebooks-second-act-c15d2cce207d?ref=spyglass.org) that VR will [ever](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) fully mature – at least not to the point that Zuck and company were thinking about four years ago. While it wasn't that long ago, a lot has changed since then. Namely, AI. And the um, reality, is that this is probably the right call to make. An obvious one, certainly given where all of [the rest of tech is focused](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/) at the moment. But the rest of tech didn't reorient, let alone [*rename*](https://500ish.com/verse-meta-verse-f6ea5ba548c3?ref=spyglass.org), their companies around the Metaverse. And so we got a bit of a Zuck two-step at that conference: > "Our goal is to build great looking glasses that deliver personal superintelligence and a feeling of presence using realistic holograms. And these ideas combined are what we call the Metaverse." Talk about backing into your mission statement! Basically: the Metaverse isn't those VR headsets you've seen talked about online and probably made fun of. [Those aren't cool](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/). You know what's cool? Ray-Bans and AI and Holograms. At least for now. [As we try anything and everything](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) to break [the stranglehold that Apple has on the world with the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). Speaking of, the writing was probably truly on the wall with regard to Meta's VR efforts when Apple [tried *and failed*](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) to make the market a thing with the Vision Pro. Call it "Spatial Computing", call it whatever you want, there just really [isn't a VR market at the moment](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/). There *is* a Quest market, [but it's small](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) and not nearly producing the returns you'd need to [justify](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) the spend to date. In confirming the news [for *The New York Times*, Mike Isaac writes](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/technology/meta-cuts-metaverse-unit.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta is weighing the metaverse cuts as competitive pressure on virtual reality devices has lessened. In 2021, Apple and Google were furiously working on competing virtual reality devices. But as those companies’ efforts slowed, Meta executives came to believe that the company could decelerate its virtual reality efforts, two of the people said. If there's major competition and an arms race, *as there clearly is in AI*, you can perhaps [justify the spend](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/). And for a moment in time [it seemed like there was going to be](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-quest/) with Apple entering the VR world. But again, it just hasn't happened so... why not take that spend and pump it into a space that has had some level of success and is [seemingly about to get more competition](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) from... Apple. > Meta does not plan to abandon building the metaverse, the people said. Instead, executives expect to shift the savings from the cuts into investments in its augmented reality glasses, the people said. That makes sense, but come on. That is not the "Metaverse" that Mark Zuckerberg thought he was creating when he renamed the company. He thought he was building *Ready Player One's* Oasis, not a platform for heads-up walking directions. So Meta can deny it, but the promise of VR – the *actual* Metaverse – seems dead. *Again*. As such, Meta's name will now live on as some bastardized and ironic moniker. Back to what [I wrote in September](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/): > Still, nothing changes eventually if you don't try to change things. So Meta deserves a lot of credit for continuing to push here – and in VR too with the Quest, and [the Horizons platform](https://spyglass.org/metas-quest-against-apple/) elements Zuck talked up at the end of his portion of the keynote. Meta has gone far beyond the point where other companies would have thrown in the towel. Even if they were true believers, Wall Street would have made them. And that's where founder control can buy what money literally can't. No other public company would be allowed to make such bets for so long. To spend upwards of $100B on projects that generate very little revenue, let alone profit. The towel may not be exactly thrown in yet, but it sure is being waved now. The stock market is happy, but man, what a whiff.[1](#one) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-731.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) [There is No VR Market, There is a (Small) Meta Quest MarketThe VR market is shrinking again, led down (and let down) by the Vision Pro…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-730.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_on_fire_--ar_169_--v_6.1_12feaf80-e693-4f90-ae5b-ba505f704f59_0-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) [Meta’s March to Make the iPhone ‘The Thing That Gets Us to the Thing’The company will build anything and everything to end the smartphone era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-728.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/599220-8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) [Meta’s AI Relativity TheoryMark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-732.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) [Can Meta Make Headsets Happen?Can Apple? Can anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-729.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_worn_in_the_future_--ar_21_--v_7_8fe8289a-5ebe-4d01-bfd8-fc05b090a7f2_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) --- 1 And it certainly must give one even [more pause](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) about their efforts in AI... [↩](#) ### Live and Let Dye URL: https://spyglass.org/alan-dye-apple-meta-ui/ Last updated: 2026-01-31T22:04:59.000Z With [the news](https://www.techmeme.com/251203/p32?ref=spyglass.org#a251203p32) that Alan Dye is jumping ship from Apple, leaving his design post to join Meta, [I couldn't decide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List%5Fof%5FJames%5FBond%5Ffilms?ref=spyglass.org) on the proper punny headline. For Apple was it 'No Time to Dye'? Or for Meta was it 'Dye Another Day'? What about 'Tomorrow Never Dyes'? Do we get really crazy and go with 'Dyemonds Are Forever'? Or we could even get tangential with 'The Dye Who Loved Me'! 'Dyefall'?! We've gone too far.[1](#one) [Keep it simple](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn8alMYSu44&ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) Alan Dye is moving on from Apple and [John Gruber, for one, seems thrilled](https://daringfireball.net/2025/12/bad%5Fdye%5Fjob?ref=spyglass.org). In fact, the only person being more unflinchingly honest in their assessment of another this week may be [Quentin Tarantino's thoughts about Paul Dano](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/quentin-tarantino-paul-dano-weakest-actor-there-will-be-blood-1236441966/?ref=spyglass.org) in *There Will Be Blood*. Both are absolutely brutal. A taste from Gruber: > It remains worrisome that Apple needed to luck into Dye leaving the company. But fortune favors the prepared, and Apple remains prepared by having an inordinate number of longtime talented HI designers at the company. The oddest thing about Alan Dye’s stint leading software design is that there are, effectively, zero design critics who’ve been on his side. The debate regarding Apple’s software design over the last decade isn’t between those on Dye’s side and those against. It’s only a matter of debating how bad it’s been, and how far it’s fallen from its previous remarkable heights. It’s rather extraordinary in today’s hyper-partisan world that there’s nearly universal agreement amongst actual practitioners of user-interface design that Alan Dye is a fraud who led the company deeply astray. It was a big problem inside the company too. I’m aware of dozens of designers who’ve left Apple, out of frustration over the company’s direction, to work at places like LoveFrom, OpenAI, and their secretive joint venture [io](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/05/21/sam-and-jony-io?ref=spyglass.org). While Mark Gurman framed this as a major coup for Meta in [breaking the news for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/apple-design-executive-alan-dye-poached-by-meta-in-major-coup?ref=spyglass.org), Gruber notes that the mood amongst those that he's talked to within Apple is "happy – if not downright giddy". In particular because Stephen Lemay is the one replacing Dye. That's because Lemay, beyond *his 25+ years of experience at Apple*, is actually an interface (and interaction) designer, unlike Dye, who had a brand and fashion background (which is probably what led to his ascent under Jony Ive around the time the Apple Watch was shipping – [as a fashion device](https://500ish.com/apple-s-fork-into-fashion-75b1da59c9b9?ref=spyglass.org)). But really, this all goes back further than that, to when Scott Forstall was ousted and Ive was put in charge of both hardware and software design for the first time. [As Jason Snell notes in *Six Colors*](https://sixcolors.com/post/2025/12/in-a-major-coup-for-someone-alan-dye-leaves-apple/?ref=spyglass.org): > The [firing of Scott Forstall](https://daringfireball.net/2012/10/forstall%5Fout?ref=spyglass.org) in 2012 handed human interface design to Jony Ive. Again, I can’t say for sure, but it certainly feels like a man who had a brilliant run designing hardware might not have been the best choice functionally to lead that part of the operation. But in a time of crisis, it was a good time for Apple to say that its world-famous design chief was on it and everything would be fine. With the benefit of hindsight, the merging of hardware and software design within Apple felt like a mistake that was born out of necessity, and perhaps convenience, at the time. While it's natural to think that within a company "design" should encompass both areas, Apple was clearly build differently – until it wasn't. And while, as Gruber notes, there's perhaps some fear that Lemay is still more of a "safe" choice because he clearly won't bolt to Meta (or presumably elsewhere any time soon) the move to put a UI guy back in charge of the actual UI obviously can't hurt – certainly not more than the UI has already been hurt under the guidance of Dye in recent years. I'm in the camp that doesn't mind "Liquid Glass", but I know a lot of people [who absolutely hate it](https://x.com/Kantrowitz/status/1996192999198662823?s=20&ref=spyglass.org), quite viscerally. And some that are putting off upgrading OSes because of it. It's obviously insanely hard to overhaul a UI – let alone across *multiple* major operating systems – but I'm going to go ahead an guess that Liquid Glass will transform to be both less liquid-y and less glass-y starting in relative short order. I mean, that was already happening with the necessitated "tinting" sliders – a concession in and of itself that seemed awfully damning of the design work here. But beyond all of that, this Dye move is fascinating at a higher level. Both things can be true here: Dye probably needed to go from Apple and yet it was still a huge coup for Meta, least of which because Dye was pretty clearly *not* being pushed out the door by Apple. The fact that he was a focal point of [this year's WWDC keynote](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) to unveil Liquid Glass suggested that he was clearly "the guy", at least in terms of Apple's UI,[3](#three) who we'd be seeing a lot more of in the coming years. How quickly things change... The fact that Apple has now lost *two* key presenters of recent marquee product unveils in the past few weeks alone, with Abidur Chowdhury (who was [tasked with unveiling the iPhone Air](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) in the all-important iPhone keynote!) also [bolting for a startup](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/the-apple-designer-who-introduced-the-iphone-air-leaves-the-company?ref=spyglass.org), seems like an issue as well. Apple clearly – *clearly* – has a retention problem at the moment, something which historically has been one of the company's main strengths. [And to me](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/), [that speaks to](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) [larger issues up top](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/). But part of that is also clearly because Mark Zuckerberg, undoubtedly sensing the [vulnerability](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) within Apple, has swooped in [like a vulture finding a carcass](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/). The fact that he's poaching from Apple must be especially tasty for Zuck as he [clearly](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/) hates [the company](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) with a passion not reserved for other rivals. So when he saw an opportunity to poach one of their key, and perhaps highest profile, designers... And this is undoubtedly why Apple felt the need not only to respond to Gurman's report about the news, but have *no less than Tim Cook* weigh in with the following: > "Steve Lemay has played a key role in the design of every major Apple interface since 1999\. He has always set an extraordinarily high bar for excellence and embodies Apple’s culture of collaboration and creativity. Design is fundamental to who we are at Apple, and today, we have an extraordinary design team working on the most innovative product lineup in our history." You'll note nothing about Alan Dye there – *not one word*. Not the typical vanilla "we thank Alan for all his hard work and wish him well" – nothing. Please *let* the door hit you in the ass on your way out. But also, "since 1999" – that's just one year after Cook himself got to Apple. And just two years after Steve Jobs returned. As if to say: Lemay is *loyal* and Apple to the core*.* "Every major Apple interface" – and I would just highlight "interface" there in particular. As in, Lemay has been doing this core work since before Apple perhaps muddied the UI waters and an implied return to greatness may indeed be the focus in such a statement. Lemay "embodies Apple’s culture of collaboration and creativity" – implying (and maybe acknowledging for employees) that perhaps Dye didn't foster such things. "Design is fundamental" – echoing the recent messaging Apple and Cook have been delivering, which reads a lot like a mission statement to [return to their strengths](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) ([after the AI debacle](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)) and to implore people to stay for the great work ahead. Back to Gruber: > The most galling moment in Dye’s entire tenure was [the opening of this year’s iPhone event keynote in September](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3KnMyojEQU&ref=spyglass.org), which began with a title card showing the [oft-cited Jobs quote](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2007/01/23/how-it-works?ref=spyglass.org) “Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.” The whole problem with the Dye era of HI design at Apple is that it has so largely—not entirely, but largely—been driven purely by how things look. There are a lot of things in Apple’s software—[like app icons](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/11/07/tahoes-terrible-icons?ref=spyglass.org)—that don’t even look good any more. But it’s the “how it works” part that has gone so horribly off the rails. Alan Dye seems like *exactly* the sort of person Jobs was describing in the first part of that quote: “People think it’s this veneer—that the designers are handed this box and told, ‘Make it look good!’” Ouch. Back in July, after the news that COO Jeff Williams would be retiring broke, [I tried to think through](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) the design team ramifications – since Williams, sort of oddly, oversaw that team. Would they finally elevate another Chief Design Officer for the first time since Ive left? > It's certainly possible that Apple is going to try to spend these next five months finding that design executive. It's also possible that they promote Dye to such a role – he did have one of the most prominent slots at the WWDC keynote this year [thanks to "Liquid Glass"](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) – though as Gruber notes, in hindsight, it may have been a mistake to have one person overseeing hardware and software design – something that only happened because Ive stepped in on the software side after Scott Forstall was forced out in 2012\. And Dye is firmly on the software side. There was clearly a reason Dye never got that role and Apple certainly must be happy about that fact now. Again, the Lemay appointment seems to be just as much about clearly splitting those sides of design back in two. As for Dye's prospects at Meta, here's Gruber: > Alan Dye is not untalented. But his talents at Apple were in politics. His political skill was so profound that it was *his* decision to leave, despite the fact that his tenure is considered a disaster by actual designers inside and outside the company. He obviously figured out how to please Apple’s senior leadership. His departure today landed as a total surprise because his stature within the company seemed so secure. And so I think he might do very well at Meta. Not because he can bring world-class interaction design expertise—because he obviously can’t—but because the path to success at Meta has never been driven by design. It’s about getting done what Zuck wants done. Dye might excel at that. Dye was an anchor holding Apple back, but might elevate design at Meta. And he seemingly has [a very specific job there](https://www.threads.com/@zuck/post/DR0Wsy0EhCP?ref=spyglass.org), not leading *all* of Meta's design, but specifically the design within Reality Labs, the infamous money pit that Meta is trying to [reorient around AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) ([alongside the whole company](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/)). Dye will report to Andrew Bosworth, Meta's CTO (who also runs that group), in charge of a new "creative studio", which all sounds a bit convoluted and yes, political. At the same time, it's interesting and noteworthy that Dye will be tasked with [the future of Meta's wearables](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/), notably their smart glasses, which [Apple is apparently](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) [sprinting towards as well](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/). Perhaps that's one reason for the Cook statement snub... We're lining up for a world in the not-too-distant future where Apple's wearables are competing against Alan Dye-designed wearables from Meta – oh yes, and [newfangled AI devices](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) [from OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/signal-blue-binge/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%AE%20OpenAI%27s%20First%20%22Jaw%2DDroppingly%20Good%22%20Prototype) [designed by Jony Ive](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)... At least Humane [didn't work out](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/), I guess. As for Dye's lasting legacy at Apple... it could very well be Liquid Glass reminding everyone that yes, design is how it works. --- 1 ["Choose your next witticism carefully Mr Bond, it may be your last."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mx9z99YJ%5F7s&ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 2 ["No Mr. Bond, I expect you to Dye!"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mx9z99YJ%5F7s&ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) 3 The last time I recalled seeing him in a keynote video was [in 2022 when he was unveiling the Dynamic – Dyenamic, for shame – Island](https://500ish.com/dynamic-island-ea88152b4381?ref=spyglass.org) as a part of the iPhone 14 unveil... [↩](#) ### OpenAI's One Battle After Another URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-anthropic-ipo-pressure/ Last updated: 2026-01-31T22:04:34.000Z At this point last year, OpenAI was firing on all cylinders which culminated in the ["12 Days of OpenAI"](https://openai.com/12-days/?ref=spyglass.org) – better known as [the "12 Days of Shipmas"](https://www.theverge.com/24314146/openai-12-days-ship-mas-chatgpt-sora-o1-update?ref=spyglass.org): a dozen consecutive days of product updates and announcements. A real shock & awe campaign of execution. This year, it's [unclear](https://community.openai.com/t/12-days-of-shipmas-again-this-year/1367795?ref=spyglass.org) if we're going to get the same level of holiday spirit as the company is the one under assault on multiple fronts, challenging their long-held [leadership position in AI](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/). If anything, it may be more like the "12 Days of Oh Shitmas"... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The AI Snow Globe is Shaken URL: https://spyglass.org/the-ai-snow-globe-is-shaken/ Last updated: 2026-01-28T09:23:46.000Z In case it wasn’t already obvious that 2026 is going to be a wild year for AI, just look at the end of 2025\. Currently the biggest story in tech is that [Sam Altman has issued a “Code Red” at OpenAI](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-declares-code-red-combat-threats-chatgpt-delays-ads-effort?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), aiming to light a fire under the company as they’re seemingly under attack for their leadership position in AI for the first time. And that hasn't even been the leading story [atop Techmeme most of the day](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-declares-code-red-combat-threats-chatgpt-delays-ads-effort?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Because with said AI war in full swing, Apple’s AI chief, John Giannandrea, is out. He’s [“retiring”](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/john-giannandrea-to-retire-from-apple/?ref=spyglass.org) which is optically the right thing for him and Apple to announce. But come on. It’s one thing for the CEO of Apple [to be thinking about retirement](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) with a brief lull in the action (for Apple, at least), while the company is near their peak in terms of sales and market cap, it’s another for the leader of what many would assume is the single most important technology for *any* company going forward to decide it’s a good time to retire. He’s retiring [because](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) Apple has been [operating](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) like the entire company is retired, at least [when it comes to AI](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). He’s retiring after [a complete shake-up](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) of his group both above him and [below him](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) as the company aims to [reorient themselves](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/) for the coming AI battle. And he’s doing so ahead of [any larger shake-ups](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) so it’s not total chaos with so many people [likely leaving in 2026](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/). Including, perhaps, that aforementioned CEO. Anyway, [the writing was clearly on the wall](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/) with Giannandrea — [just as it was](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) with Yann LeCun, Meta’s former head of AI… Meta, um, decided to go in [another direction](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/), completely leaning in to LLMs as LeCun keeps leaning away [towards "World Models"](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/). Which may or may not be [the future](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/)... Meanwhile, over at Amazon, they're releasing not only [their own, new frontier LLMs](https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-nova-forge-ai-models/?ref=spyglass.org), they're also releasing [their new Trainium chips](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/amazons-custom-chips-pose-another-threat-to-nvidia-8aa19f5b?ref=spyglass.org) to help build said models. As well as the models from Anthropic, which makes models they both now compete with and use. Because the models from Anthropic are also going to be trained with TPUs from Google. And GPUs from NVIDIA too, it seems. Which is interesting since [Amazon owns 20-something percent of Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/). And Google owns [another double-digit percentage](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/). Of course, NVIDIA [will now be](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) a smaller owner too. They're also partnering with Microsoft, which is also working on their own, new frontier models, [now free from the constraints](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) of the previous deal with OpenAI which [prevented them](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) from going after AGI. They can now fully compete with those models, but also use them, since [they own 27 percent of said company](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/). While Microsoft is also working on their own chips, both they and OpenAI currently train on NVIDIA GPUs. At least until OpenAI also builds their own chips with Broadcom. Also, they're going to [work with AMD's chips](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal) in some capacity too. But at least for now, they're not training on Google's TPUs, [as a $100B commitment from NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) may have snuffed that possibility out. For now. And [that alignment makes sense](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) because [the main reason](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) for the actual "Code Red" at OpenAI and [the de-facto "Code Red" at NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) in recent weeks is seemingly mostly about Google. Gemini has not only gotten good enough as a model, but is clearly getting good enough [as an actual product](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) to eat into ChatGPT. And there's real fear that the models are improving in ways that have surprised OpenAI on the pre-training front, and that may have something to do with said TPUs. Which is also potentially a problem for NVIDIA. [Is "Garlic" a remedy](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-developing-garlic-model-counter-googles-recent-gains?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). Regardless, the fact that Google is able to train cutting-edge frontier models without GPUs is clearly not a narrative NVIDIA likes floating around out there. Especially the talk of others using the TPUs. But even worse than Anthropic using them in Google's Cloud would be the notion of Google *selling* their chips to Meta to use in their own infrastructure. In some ways, this is worse for NVIDIA than [the debate around chip depreciation](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) and even [circular financing](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/). Because margins tend to get [less fat](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,%F0%9F%93%89%20Oracle%27s%20Margins,-%E2%80%93%20%22Let%27s%20not%20talk) and profits tend to get skinnier as competition enters the picture. And *everyone* that NVIDIA partners with is also [seemingly trying](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) to enter that picture. As they [continue to hammer money into NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/)... And so we're entering 2026 with the broader AI landscape perhaps even more unsettled than it was entering 2025\. That was, of course, right before [DeepSeek entered the picture](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) – well, technically *right after*, as that bomb landed and yet didn't explode for a few weeks. Once it did, it sent all of the players above [scrambling](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/). But they also soon realized that practically speaking, [not much had changed](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/). Still, it caused a mentality shift simply around the notion that *things could quickly change*. (And maybe to some extent about "open source" models – [unless you're Meta](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) – and certainly MoE techniques – [sorry, Meta](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/)) And that has continued throughout the year. So in a way, it's fitting that we're ending the year with things more chaotic than ever. Google, which had been depressed much of the year – [at least from a stock price perspective](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) – seemingly woke up at Google I/O and [slammed their foot on the gas](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). The ramification of which we're just seeing now with Gemini 3's release. And it's the first time that [OpenAI's general lead in the space](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) has felt threatened, perhaps outside of the DeepSeek blip. They started out strong from a product perspective and kept getting stronger with [viral hit ](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/)after [viral hit](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) spurring more usage. But Code Reds don't lie, [and even Colonel Jessup can't lie about them](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GrB6qrGWjk&ref=spyglass.org). Such an order worked for Google a few years ago. Will it work for OpenAI? It's weird timing for such an order, given that the company had *just* brought on [a new "CEO" of their product division](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). Now seemingly everything that Fidji Simo was brought on board to oversee is taking a backseat to getting back to the fundamentals. And [the *actual* CEO](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/) is seemingly back to overseeing those, and issuing Code Reds. From the outside, it has long felt like OpenAI may be trying to do too much. This is seemingly an indication that the company also now agrees. The shopping agent stuff takes a backseat, as does the daily briefing work, as do the ads. The latter wasn't actually rolled out yet, [but code leaks suggested](https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/artificial-intelligence/leak-confirms-openai-is-preparing-ads-on-chatgpt-for-public-roll-out/?ref=spyglass.org) it was coming imminently – and that was undoubtedly another key element of Simo's involvement, given her previous work with both Facebook and Instacart. Awkwardly, these product initiatives were likely three of the key pillars of ramping revenue. If those are paused, is burn about to get even hotter? And none of this even speaks to the ongoing issues with AI safety, and China, and the myriad other things in motion and in play... Things feel... tense at the moment, [to put it lightly](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/). I mean, [NVIDIA is just blurting out "ENRON!"](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) at this point, coprolalia-style. If the markets start [turning against AI spend](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/), that's going to be a big problem, [to say the least](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). Even though OpenAI isn't – [yet](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) – public, [the trickle-down effects](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) will be very real here. Talk of spending "trillions" could quickly morph back into mere "billions". An Age of AI Austerity. If that comes in 2026 and [the AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/) starts to deflate – it doesn't even have to burst – we might be seeing a lot more Code Reds. Can the tech industry handle this truth? ### With Both Apple & AI, Timing Remains Everything URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-timing/ Last updated: 2025-12-02T13:19:29.000Z Yesterday, Alex Kantrowitz and I sat down to record [our monthly chat](https://spyglass.org/tag/big-technology/) for his *Big Technology Podcast*, and we kicked off talking about the possibility that Tim Cook could be contemplating retiring from his CEO role at Apple. [My thought remains](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) that the timing seemingly is perfect right now, and assuming he's thinking about it, he might not get a better opportunity... Speaking of timing, [about 20 minutes into our chat](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tluF-sFn4qQ&ref=spyglass.org), talking through the situation at Apple that Cook may be handing to John Ternus, [his would-be successor](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/), I was trying to think through the main things to focus on with that transition: > Say Ternus is elevated to be CEO. Who’s in charge of AI? They need someone to be in charge. Right now it’s been John Giannandrea. I think everything you read and hear, similar to the Yann LeCun situation at Meta, it sort of feels like the writing is on the wall there. That he will probably not be there for very much longer. Well, "very much longer" turned out to be *a few hours*. Right after the podcast went live, [Apple announced that Giannandrea would be retiring from Apple](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/12/john-giannandrea-to-retire-from-apple/?ref=spyglass.org). The rest of the discussion centers around Cook's tenure and how any succession might parallel the ones that took place at Amazon and/or Disney. Is Cook waiting for that "one more thing" to unveil hardware-wise [in the form of Smart Glasses](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/)? And speaking of hardware, with the seeming [pivot back to that being Apple's main narrative](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) (in the face of [the AI struggles](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)), does that make Ternus the right guy at the right time, or does his hardware focus hold him back in some way given that Apple is [increasingly becoming a Services company](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/)? Continuing on the Giannandrea thread, I noted that it felt like they still needed to bring in someone from the outside to give new life to that group, and that [M&A could be](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) the framework for how they refresh their talent (which [continues to bleed over to Meta](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/)). Well, they're not doing M&A yet, but it seems like they poached AI researcher Amar Subramanya from Microsoft to lead the group. Granted he was at Microsoft less than six months because most of his time was actually spent at Google, much like Giannandrea before him. But JG came from a Google focused on ML – the element of AI that everyone talked about before LLMs came along – Subramanya was seemingly working in the heart of Gemini. Is is also interesting that he's reporting to Craig Federighi and not Cook (as Giannandrea was). This makes Federighi the de-facto true head of AI, which I put out there as a possibility given the [post-Siri shakeup](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) which saw him take over those groups alongside Mike Rockwell. Alex wanted me to sell him on [the new iPhone 17 Pro](https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/), which I think I successfully did. Certainly over the iPhone Air, which was just [positioned oddly by Apple in the market](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/). We go on to talk through [the Great Big Tech Market Cap Race](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) taking place between NVIDIA, Apple, Google, and Microsoft. And how the ever-shifting narratives around AI are altering that and seemingly bringing those four companies together at the top. [Google's "comeback"](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/) has impacted not just OpenAI, but NVIDIA and perhaps Microsoft as a result. And, if Google and Apple are truly [about to partner](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) to bring Gemini in [to help power Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/), the resurgence could help Cupertino's narrative too. Next up in AI narrative shifts – well, [once NVIDIA stops putting their foot in their own mouth](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) – [world models](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/)? Is that a window for Tesla to come back into the equation? Clearly Elon Musk is angling for that with Optimus... Who would I bet on? I would do [what these companies are doing](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) and bet on all of them – bet on each other, [to hedge](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/). But if I had to pick one, probably Google for the reasons [I laid out previously before the current stock run](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/). Though I remain intrigued by [OpenAI's "AGI or Bust" bet](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) – ifthey can find [enough places](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) to get enough capital to keep going... It's obviously the biggest wildcard in all of this and will be until the capital wells [start to dry up](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/). But I do think it's interesting/worth noting that Google [seems to be](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) doing some great product work on top of AI, long [OpenAI's strong suit](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/). The new "Dynamic View" mode of Gemini – awful name aside – [is incredibly impressive](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/). Finally, if the worm really is turning with regard to AI spend, is [Anthropic's move to focus on profitability](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) in the face of OpenAI's continued growing spend an especially savvy play? Sure, they still need to invest a lot of money to work towards the future of AI, but perhaps *mere* tens of billions is enough and not hundreds of billions – or *trillions*. ### Intel Inside, In a Way URL: https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/ Last updated: 2026-01-28T09:22:37.000Z Where there's a will, there's a way. [Here's Ming-Chi Kuo](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1994422001952555318?ref=spyglass.org): > Intel expected to begin shipping Apple’s lowest-end M processor as early as 2027 > > There have long been market rumors that Intel could become an advanced-node foundry supplier to Apple, but visibility around this had remained low. My latest industry surveys, however, indicate that visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved significantly. > > Apple previously signed an NDA with Intel and obtained the advanced-node 18AP PDK 0.9.1GA. The key simulation and research projects (such as PPA) are tracking in line with expectations, and Apple is now waiting for Intel to release PDK 1.0/1.1, currently scheduled for 1Q26\. Apple's plan is for Intel to begin shipping its lowest-end M processor, utilizing the 18AP advanced node, as early as 2Q–3Q27, but the actual timeline remains contingent on development progress following the receipt of PDK 1.0/1.1. While Kuo's track record is [hit-or-miss](https://spyglass.org/foldable-giant-ipad/), that's usually only when he tries to veer outside of his wheelhouse in Apple's supply-chain. He seemingly has good details for this shift here. And, of course, this follows [other reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as-part-of-its-comeback-bid?ref=spyglass.org) from earlier this year that Apple might through Intel that foundry bone they so desperately need. To be clear, this wouldn't be Apple handing a big chunk of their chip manufacturing to Intel – it's a tiny sliver of the work TSMC does for the company. That's in line with how I guessed such a partnership might play out [back in September](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/): > I say "tall" because it also feels unlikely given the tight relationship between Apple and TSMC – with the former often first in line for the newest processes coming out of the latter. But again, maybe if Trump specifically asks Apple, Tim Cook will figure out a way to use Intel to fab [some of their chips](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/happy-to-watch-at-home-gilmore?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7could-apple-or-nvidia-save-intel). Apple has a lot of them these days, beyond just their CPUs. If you squint, you can almost see a world in which Intel helps Apple make their 'C' line of chips, which would be an extra nice narrative since their modem chips were born out of Apple buying Intel's modem business... Well, per this report, it's not the 'C' chips – at least not yet – but the lowest end of the 'M' lineup probably makes more sense given both the relative low volumes (and thus, lower stakes – whereas 'C' chips are increasingly going into Apple's cutting edge devices) and the fact that Apple has been making such chips for years. Back to Kuo: > Apple’s lowest-end M processor is currently used in the MacBook Air and iPad Pro mainly, with combined shipments of roughly 20 million units for 2025\. As MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor, shipments of lowest-end M processor in both 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 15–20 million units. I *think* he means iPad *Air* here, not iPad Pro, as the Pro models use the top-of-the-line M chips, of course. If Apple + Intel could hit this second half of 2027 timetable, presumably the "low-end" M chip at the time would be an M4 or M5 chip – yes, the top-of-the-line right now. Currently, the iPad Air ships with an M3 chip and presuming that gets updated early next year to an M4 chip, there's a world in which the 2027 model gets an M5 chip (though who knows about exact product timing by then, obviously). Meanwhile, the current Mac lineup has the last-generation M4 as the lowest-end chip (well, technically, the Mac Studio still has the M3 Ultra, while the Mac Pro *still uses the M2 Ultra* (!), but those are obviously higher-end chips). But then there's [that interesting Walmart MacBook Air](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/), which is still very much for sale (and, in fact, [down to *$549* for the holidays](https://www.walmart.com/ip/Apple-MacBook-Air-13-3-inch-Laptop-Space-Gray-M1-Chip-Built-for-Apple-Intelligence-8GB-RAM-256GB-storage/609040889?classType=VARIANT&athbdg=L1800&ref=spyglass.org)) using the M1\. You have to believe that this chip, as great as it has been for Apple, will be end-of-life'd sometime soon and it will be interesting if Apple gives Walmart access to say, the M2 or M3 chips to continue selling the product. If so, it's possible that *this* is the lowest end M chip that Apple intends to make with Intel. But it's perhaps just as likely that Apple lets that partnership run out with the rumors that they're about to launch [their own affordable MacBook early next year](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/). Interestingly enough, this new product apparently wouldn't run on an M chip, but [instead on Apple's A-series](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/), built to date for iPhones (and the more affordable iPad). Kuo's report specifically notes the M chip, so presumably this would-be Intel partnership isn't about these chips – and certainly not the ones due soon, of course. If Apple is about to move towards only using their lowest-end M chips in the iPad Air (with the lowest-end of the MacBook lineup shifting to the A chips), this might make even more sense volume-wise to try Intel's hand here. But why is Apple throwing Intel, their old CPU partner who they famously parted with on not the best terms when [they spanked them](https://500ish.com/apples-embarrassment-of-intel-e2cf258ee320?ref=spyglass.org) with [the introduction of the M-series](https://500ish.com/dial-m1-for-murder-f4e615a8a6bc?ref=spyglass.org) itself several years back, a bone here? Well, presumably they like the notion of continuing to diversify their manufacturing away from single points of failure – which TSMC very much is right now. Intel clearly isn't ready or able to take over all of Apple's chip business – but they likely never will, as in an ideal world, Apple would have multiple fab partners, all around the world, for making their chips. Speaking of the world, this Intel partnership would obviously also give Apple a nice "made in America" narrative once again – and give Tim Cook [something else](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) to hand to President Trump on a golden platter. You'll recall that the current largest owner of Intel is... [the US Government](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/). But the biggest question mark here remains if Intel can use such a deal to truly ramp their fab business into an actual rival to TSMC. This deal would be a nice, marquee name, of course, but it's mainly for the optics right now. Can Apple help them whip the actual chip-making processes into shape? Will it give others the confidence to go with Intel? [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/intel-strikes-deals/)? [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/)? [AMD](https://spyglass.org/signal-sora-break-s/#:~:text=Can%20AMD%20really%20be%20exploring%20using%20Intel%27s%20foundry%3F%20Presumably%20not%20for%20their%20high%2Dend%20chips%2C%20but%20still%2C%20any%20deal%20here%20would%20be%20wild.%20%5BSemafor%5D)?! **One more thing:** sort of humorous to think of this news in the context of Intel's old "Intel Inside" marketing campaigns. If Intel starts producing Apple chips, there would technically be Intel inside, though not the chip itself, but the *process*. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Still Needing a Foundry Partner, Intel Looks to Apple...Maybe Apple throws Intel some (small) business and cash if Trump asks, but a return to x86 is obviously not in the cards…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-706.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/218093e5-975b-4a36-b21f-2552f203b239-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/) [Return of the MacBook?A colorful, cheaper Apple laptop has been a dream, but reality is often more drab…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-707.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_colorful_macbook_photorealistic_--ar_43_--v_7_549283bd-a84d-4f1e-9110-8df2a8a1adca_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/) [How Low Will Apple Go?With regard to the price of a lower-cost MacBook…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-708.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--09_52_22-AM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/) ### Flakes on a Plane URL: https://spyglass.org/flakes-on-a-plane/ Last updated: 2025-11-30T10:02:47.000Z There I was with a dinner to eat and a couple hours to kill. Oh look, *Flight Risk* freshly available on HBO Max. I hadn't heard great things – I hadn't heard much of anything. But Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Dockery, and Topher Grace directed by Mel Gibson, how bad can it possibly be? Bad. I honestly can't think of a worse movie I've seen in recent memory. Granted, I tend to avoid overtly bad movies and had I just looked at [the Metacritic score](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/flight-risk-2025/?ref=spyglass.org) ahead of time, I probably would have avoided this one. Instead, I just went for it. My god. The premise is fine, I guess. The person who is the reason for the flight is a flight risk, but also the flight itself turns into the risk. Get it? And I sort of like the notion of having a small group of actors naturally contained in one space for an entire movie. And I even like all of the actors involved here individually! But put together, they just don't work. Part of it is the accents – more Dockery's American accent than Wahlberg's faux redneck one (because it was part of the plot) – but a bigger part was Wahlberg's hair situation. I mean, did he insist on shaving his head so there would be stubble so people wouldn't dare think he's actually bald or something? It just looks ridiculous. From there, it only gets worse. Topher Grace tries to do Topher Grace stuff but it doesn't work here. Comically obvious plot points are revealed with zero subtlety – "how did you know we were going to Seattle?" The whole fear-of-flying angle, which is actually the one thing that might make sense for the plot, quickly flies out the window, though sadly no one else does until the end. I quite enjoyed how the autopilot on the tiny prop plane flying over mountains in Alaska was super smooth and flew perfect for most of the flight, but when the pilots were in control, that's when the shit hit the fan. I also loved the warning not to fire the gun in the plane lest it take the whole thing down, followed by endless firing in the plane, including of *a flare gun*. I'm sorry, but nothing can possibly top when the nice man over the radio helping the person who has never flown before (yet keeps reading off altitude measurements as if she's an experienced pilot?) tells her that she should do a trial run at the landing, knowing she's running out of fuel – and not to mention that one of the characters is dying from blood loss. They only don't because she refuses and sure enough, when she goes to do the actual landing, there's no more fuel. In other words, had she done the trial run of the landing, they'd all be dead. This is never addressed. Oh look, a perfectly prepared syringe of morphine! But at least they addressed the fact that the flight risk guy knew one random payment he helped orchestrate for the mob or whomever was going to a specific area of New York where, as it turns out, the head of the FBI or whomever also happens to live, as he discloses while telling his agent to make sure to call him at home, and very specifically says to call him at his home in that very specific area of New York. What a twist! The same FBI director or whomever takes about five seconds to admit to murdering his subordinates when the accusation is made. Oh yes, and then he's of course on the phone with the would-be assassin at the (mercifully short) end.[1](#one) AND I WOULD HAVE GOTTEN AWAY FOR IT TOO, IF IT WEREN'T FOR YOU PESKY KIDS. Honestly, I'm embarrassed for everyone involved in this movie. I'm also embarrassed that anyone would give this film a rating above zero. Mel Gibson, for all his faults, has [directed some great movies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mel%5FGibson%5Ffilmography?ref=spyglass.org). Some truly great ones, even. What the fuck was this? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Screen-Shot-2024-06-27-at-11.01.25-AM-2.webp) 5 o'clock head shadow... --- 1 Some mild – and I do mean mild – *Speed* vibes. [↩](#) ### Signal: Blue Binge 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-blue-binge/ Last updated: 2025-11-28T14:25:57.000Z Happy belated Thanksgiving to those in the US (though we celebrated here in London as well). Catching up the day after with a lot packed in below. While also, of course, gearing up for The Game tomorrow. [Five](https://mgs.blog/a-few-thoughts-on-the-game-2024-edition-1f602b81fb6a?ref=spyglass.org) [in](https://mgs.blog/jims-jungle-7760e1467933?ref=spyglass.org) [a](https://mgs.blog/snake-eyes-2127273cecd6?ref=spyglass.org) [row](https://mgs.blog/the-waiting-game-90162342607c?ref=spyglass.org)? Seems [improbable](https://www.espn.co.uk/college-football/game/%5F/gameId/401752921/ohio-state-michigan?ref=spyglass.org) though [certainly not impossible](https://mgs.blog/michigans-brightside-46273dc5305a?ref=spyglass.org)... #[GoBlue](https://mgs.blog/go-blue-3057246edaf5?ref=spyglass.org) 〽️ --- ### The Inner Ring... [DeepMind Should Make the UK Proud and EmbarrassedA growing sense that growth will never return to the UK…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-698.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_the_UK_flag_with_a_stock_market_chart_heading_up_and_rock_a3422e40-e540-444c-99ee-f8319ee1eccb_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/) [NVIDIA Evokes the ‘E’ WordBecause they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-699.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G6jU_qpWkAAJ2q5-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) --- ### Thoughts On... **🗣️** [**Ilya Sutskever on Dwarkesh Podcast**](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2?ref=spyglass.org) – There's a lot in here, and yes, some great memes. A few main takeaways include his notion that Safe Superintelligence can compete with his former colleagues at OpenAI (and elsewhere) despite having less capital in the bank because those guys are bogged down in the "rat race" – not only having models and products out there in the world, but also solely (or mainly) focused on LLMs (where "scaling has sucked the oxygen out of the room" when it comes to new ideas). SSI has "returned to research", trying to come up with other models and methods but at the same time, he's backing off the notion of going straight for Superintelligence and hinting they might get some work out there sooner ("gradual roll out"). Because the work might actually be around "a mind that can learn" rather than be pre-loaded with everything – which isn't natural. As always, Sutskever loves going back to human evolution and that's clearly guiding him here. Will it work? No one knows, and he's pretty honest about that – which also may be why his co-founder [Daniel Gross bailed for Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) when [Zuck came](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167799180/i-quote?ref=spyglass.org) with [a "Godfather" offer](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) (which Sutskever directly addressed too – he didn't want to sell, but Gross clearly did). He thinks we're still 5 to 20 years away from what we would consider [AGI/Superintelligence/Whatever](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). And perhaps more notably, that the LLM-focused folks may "stall out" on their progress, *perhaps* *in the next couple of years*. That doesn't mean some won't be good businesses, but they'll be even more squarely competing in that "rat race". That's, um, something to watch! **\[**[**Dwarkesh**](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **😮** [**OpenAI's First "Jaw-Droppingly Good" Prototype**](https://www.emersoncollective.com/persons/sam-altman-and-jony-ive-dd-2025?ref=spyglass.org) – While it [has long](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) felt [like you](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) could [almost triangulate](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) what they've been [working towards](https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/), the news here is that they finally have *a prototype* they're excited about. From what Sam Altman and Jony Ive are saying, it's not clear even if the device is actually *working* yet – all we have is the "beautiful cabin by the lake, and in the mountains" *vibe* reveal from Altman – or if they're just pleased with the form factor they've landed upon. But it's apparently less than two years away, per Ive. "I hope when people see it, they say 'that's it," says Altman. To which Ive quickly jumps in, "Yeah, they will." His short laugh appended to the end of that gives one a lot of hope. He clearly likes whatever they have! Now for the fun part: figuring out how to manufacturer it at scale. It doesn't seem like a coincidence that OpenAI is [ramping up](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-23/apple-ios-27-snow-leopard-like-quality-focus-ai-features-tim-cook-retirement-mibq7jv8?cmpid=BBD112325%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251123&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) their poaching from Apple's hardware teams... **\[**[**Emerson Collective**](https://www.emersoncollective.com/persons/sam-altman-and-jony-ive-dd-2025?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🎞️** [**Could Netflix Win Warner Bros?**](https://nypost.com/2025/11/25/media/netflix-steps-up-charm-offensive-to-buy-warner-bros-discovery-even-after-trump-favors-rival-bid-from-paramount/?ref=spyglass.org) – This report would sure like us to believe it's a two-horse race between the streaming giant and Paramount (with Comcast seemingly in a distant third). The playbook seems to be all about convincing WBD that a deal with them would go through regulatory easier because streaming is a more dynamic and competitive market than traditional Hollywood. But Paramount has their trump card, literally, so it's just hard to see [how they don't win this](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/). Unless the WBD board feels like they really should just sell the studio + streamer and let the networks spin-out in to their own entity to be sold at a later point – i.e. can Netflix make a partial deal that's better than what Paramount is offering for *the whole company* right now? The fact that Netflix's own investors don't seem to love the prospects of this deal is [interesting too](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/)... Updated ["sweetened" bids are due on Monday](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/warner-bros-is-said-to-ask-bidders-to-submit-sweetened-offers?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**New York Post**](https://nypost.com/2025/11/25/media/netflix-steps-up-charm-offensive-to-buy-warner-bros-discovery-even-after-trump-favors-rival-bid-from-paramount/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📺** [**Warner Bros Discovery Wants to Make HBO, HBO Again**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/inside-hbo-max-plan-casey-bloys-hbo-ip-max-original-1236432357/?ref=spyglass.org) – Speaking of, after years of trying ([and failing](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/)) to turn HBO into Netflix – doing basically everything to destroy the brand in the process ([to be fair](https://500ish.com/dont-mess-with-a-good-thing-7b4476498476?ref=spyglass.org), [this was](https://500ish.com/hboh-bfd5cfccfe25?ref=spyglass.org) [mostly AT&T](https://500ish.com/its-not-hbo-it-s-tv-apparently-851c2afd469e?ref=spyglass.org)), including burying it in the most MAXimum way possible, WBD now seems set on reverting everything, [from the branding on down](https://spyglass.org/its-hbo-max-again/). Of course, the world is quite different than when HBO rose to power – least of which [because Apple](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) and others have stepped in to fill some of the HBO-shaped hole – and it's not just streaming, but the fact that movies themselves play a different role with the brand (i.e. HBO is no longer the place you go to see movies at home first after theatrical runs and video store rentals). "Prestige TV", which HBO more or less started, has now mainly subsumed everything. All of this sounds good – including using "Max Originals" for the more regular cadence shows – but it's sort of humorous that it's happening just as someone new is going to buy the brand *yet again*. Will they [monkey with that swing](https://500ish.com/at-t-monkeys-with-hbos-swing-403b3812bf52?ref=spyglass.org)? Probably! Will it ironically be Netflix? Maybe! **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/inside-hbo-max-plan-casey-bloys-hbo-ip-max-original-1236432357/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📲** [**The iOS 'Snow Leopard' Moment**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-23/apple-ios-27-snow-leopard-like-quality-focus-ai-features-tim-cook-retirement-mibq7jv8?cmpid=BBD112325%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251123&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) – Mark Gurman says the next iteration of iOS – iOS 27 – will be more about cleaning up and streamlining the OS, just as Apple has done from time to time with macOS in the past. Feels like a good thing, but also a *necessary* thing as operating systems age and naturally gather cruft. It also should give Apple a way to [refocus](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) around AI, as many such features and work will presumably be under-the-hood as well (and will start rolling out with iOS 26.4 in the Spring). And though it's not mentioned, one presumes Apple also has to do some interesting work to get the OS ready for the [forthcoming](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) '[iPhone Fold](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/)'. No one is really talking about the software, but presumably it will run "straight up" iOS on the front screen and some sort of new, expanded version when unfolded. Or [could it](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/#:~:text=And%20that%20leads%20to%20the%20next%20logical%20question%3A%20if%20such%20a%20theoretical%20device%20might%20run%20iOS%20on%20the%20outside%20screen%20but%20open%20up%20to%20run%20iPadOS%3F) unfold into iPadOS? Would that be too jarring for people? **One more thing**: Gurman also refutes [the *FT* report](https://www.ft.com/content/0d424625-f4f8-4646-9f6e-927c8cbe0e3e?ref=spyglass.org) that Tim Cook could retire in the first half of next year. We'll see. [I still think](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) it was a trial balloon floated by *someone*. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-23/apple-ios-27-snow-leopard-like-quality-focus-ai-features-tim-cook-retirement-mibq7jv8?cmpid=BBD112325%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251123&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) **🔒\]** --- ### I Wrote... [NVIDIA’s “Delight”Passive-aggressive tweets aside, NVIDIA has a point, but also a potential problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-703.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_rgpa5argpa5argpa-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) [Big Tech’s Wild Market Cap Ride3 different leaders of the 6 this year, Google soon to be a 4th?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-702.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-25--2025--05_36_04-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) --- ### I Quote... > "Let’s be very clear: What Sam does, I cannot do. There’s so much to do just on my scope that I think I have a decade or more of things that I can do just right there. And I’m telling you, we need all of us. We need Sam so badly. We need me." – **Fidji Simo**, when asked directly [by Zoë Schiffer for a *Wired* profile](https://www.wired.com/story/fidji-simo-is-openais-other-ceo-and-she-swears-shell-make-chatgpt-profitable/?ref=spyglass.org) if she would ever "consider becoming CEO of the whole company?" It's a good answer, in that I believe it to be true and sincere. As has been proven time and again, no one can [cut deals](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) and [raise money](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) quite like Sam Altman. But it's also not a "no." My suspicion, [from the get go](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163162284/openai-expands-leadership-with-fidji-simo?ref=spyglass.org), is that this [remains](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) the [long-term plan](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/). If and when OpenAI [goes public](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/), who is CEO of the company? --- ### Asides... - Forget context windows and focus on the historical **context** for the [current](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/) **AI Bubble**. **\[**[**Crazy Stupid Tech**](https://crazystupidtech.com/2025/11/21/boom-bubble-bust-boom-why-should-ai-be-different/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - You know what might be slightly worse than the guy who correctly shorted the housing bubble [calling your company](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) into question? *The guy who correctly shorted Enron*. Yes, [*another* Enron reference](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/). **Jim Chanos** seems skeptical about some of the elements [surrounding](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) **NVIDIA** too... **\[**[**Yahoo Finance**](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-says-it-isnt-using-circular-financing-schemes-2-famous-short-sellers-disagree-100021210.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - An **AI-powered morning brief** from **Meta**? I see the copiers are working again in Menlo Park. But the target has shifted from Snap to the new relevant competition (with the antitrust case [in the rearview](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/)). **\[**[**WaPo**](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/11/21/meta-ai-powered-daily-brief/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Why did Apple yank *yet another* show off of **Apple TV** right ahead of its premiere? This time [it wasn't political](https://spyglass.org/the-savant-apple/), it was apparently **plagiarism**. With the entire season already wrapped! Yikes. **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/11/25/heres-likely-reason-why-latest-apple-tv-drama-was-abruptly-pulled-before-premiere/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Apple** may be poised to become the **world's top smartphone maker** again, overtaking Samsung for *the first time since 2011* – 14 years! It looks like a good mixture of [the iPhone 17](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20The%20iPhone%20Air%20Up%20There%20%28And%20Down%20There%29) \+ natural upgrade timing for many. Look for [another EU investigation](https://spyglass.org/the-non-premium-market-apparently/) to begin in 3... 2... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/apple-set-to-become-world-s-top-phone-maker-overtaking-samsung?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The new head of feature film development for Paramount? **President Trump**. As he [seemingly](https://www.semafor.com/article/11/23/2025/how-trump-is-trying-to-remake-american-culture-starting-with-rush-hour?ref=spyglass.org) just got the ***Rush Hour*** franchise resurrected on a whim (and perhaps as a favor to director Brett Ratner). **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/rush-hour-4-paramount-trump-1236591747/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **DOGE**? **"That doesn't exist."** Okay then, thanks for playing and paying [everyone](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/doge-days-of-bummer?ref=spyglass.org). [Who could](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/) [have](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-031-youtube-tv-makes-a-costly-mistake/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A5%B7%20Sam%20Altman%20Reckons%20with%20a%20Growing%20Threat%20to%20OpenAI%3A%20Elon%20Musk) [known](https://spyglass.org/tricktok/#footnote)? [Except](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-020/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Silicon%20Valley%20Billionaires%20Remain%20in%20Thrall%20to%20the%20Cult%20of%20the%20Geek) [everyone](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%95%20Inside%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20Plan%20for%20DOGE%20to%20Slash%20Government%20Costs). **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/doge-doesnt-exist-with-eight-months-left-its-charter-2025-11-23/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - A good look at the current state of the broader **AI race** between the **US** and **China**. The US is still in the lead, but China seems to be executing upon the fast-follower model well – with the full weight of the government. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-cold-war-that-will-redefine-everything-4e1810b2?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - I forgot to link to the **humanoid robot** built by a team in Russia falling on its face during a strange **demo** a couple weeks back**.** It was too on the nose. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/technology/ai-robot-russia-falls.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - How many **data centers** does **Amazon** have out there in the world to power AWS? Perhaps *over 900* in over 50 countries – some their own, some that they partner with others to give themselves extra capacity. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-24/amazon-data-center-tally-tops-900-amid-ai-frenzy-documents-show?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Meanwhile, **Meta** using some financial maneuvers to ensure some **data center debt** stays off their books could backfire... **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-ai-data-center-finances-d3a6b464?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - They're also entering the **power trading** market, which allows them to commit to big power deals, but hedge the risk. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-21/meta-enters-power-trading-to-support-ai-data-centers?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Is "**Aluminium OS**" a sort of AI-first new **ChromeOS/Android hybrid** that **Google** is working towards in [their unification push](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?utm%5Fcampaign=email-half-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email#:~:text=While%20there%20were,%5B9to5Google%5D)? **\[**[**Android Authority**](https://www.androidauthority.com/aluminium-os-android-for-pcs-3619092/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - More smoke behind the notion that **Netflix** might backtrack on their anti-**theatrical** release strategy ([something I predicted would eventually happen a year ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)). If they were to [win the Warner bid](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BD%EF%B8%8F%20Netflix%27s%20Warner%20Bros%20Bid%20Includes%20Theatrical%20Promise), Ted Sarandos might use it as cover for a bigger push, postulates Matt Belloni. **\[**[**Puck**](https://puck.news/newsletter%5Fcontent/what-im-hearing-teds-theater-pledge-taylors-reunion-utas-big-cheese/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Speaking of, a nice, fun **profile** about lawyer-turned-reporter **Belloni**. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/business/matthew-belloni-puck-hollywood.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Speaking of **HBO** and regular cadence, after ***House of the Dragon*** season 3 and **A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms** season 1 hit in 2026, it seems like we'll have *AKofSK* season 2 in 2027 and then *HotD* season 4 in 2028\. Good to see [some actual *planning*](https://spyglass.org/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-finale-hbo/) and spreading things out a bit [more evenly](https://spyglass.org/remake-game-of-thrones-please/)... But again, an acquisition could [shake up this](https://spyglass.org/game-of-thrones-movie/) snow globe! **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/house-of-the-dragon-knight-of-seven-kingdoms-renewed-hbo-1236432227/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I was lucky enough to visit a **Tekserve** in NYC once back in 2013 (before they shut down in 2016). It was awesome. Almost an anti-Apple Store, while still being an Apple store. Amazing that founder **David Lerner** originally wanted to call it "Three Ring Circuits" (but his partners wouldn't let him). RIP. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/technology/personaltech/david-lerner-dead.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Also Wrote... [Failing to Realize Why Modern Antitrust Keeps FailingTim Wu is back with another misguided op-ed…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-701.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_kxiozukxiozukxio.png)](https://spyglass.org/modern-antitrust-keeps-failing/) [‘Pluribus’ as AI AllegoryNot sure that was the intent, but it feels like a commentary on LLMs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-700.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/pluribus-button-1759334370303.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/) --- ### I Spy... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-11-28-at-11.03.51---AM-1.png)](https://www.ft.com/content/5605d086-289e-4b5f-803b-4c13666976a5?ref=spyglass.org) While OpenAI itself may not carry a ton of debt (they just have a relatively small credit line, which they haven't drawn), [everyone](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) is [well aware](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/) that [their partners are loading up to the hilt](https://www.ft.com/content/5605d086-289e-4b5f-803b-4c13666976a5?ref=spyglass.org). Why? [To build data centers for OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/). [As we've discussed](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/), as a (highly) unprofitable startup, OpenAI would have trouble getting access to such debt – certainly not with the ease [that Amazon](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/amazon-kicks-off-first-us-high-grade-bond-sale-in-three-years?ref=spyglass.org) and Meta and Google can – so they're leveraging their partners, coming up with ["new ideas" for financing](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/). That includes, by the way, the data centers OpenAI intends to operate themselves. Who is paying for that? [Likely NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/). Humorously, this likely [came together](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) to [combat Google](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), but also to prevent OpenAI from going down [the TPU path](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/) with them... Anyway, it's rather remarkable to see the partners' debt for OpenAI data centers so cleanly laid out in visual form. As is this: > The $100bn of bonds, bank loans and private credit deals tied to OpenAI are equivalent to the net debt directly held by the six largest corporate borrowers in the world — including carmakers Volkswagen and Toyota and telecoms groups AT&T and Comcast — according to a 2024 report by asset manager Janus Henderson. [Private Credit](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/business/economy/stocks-bitcoin-markets-risk.html?ref=spyglass.org). SPVs. [The race is on](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) to get this all working – at least somewhat economically – before [the inevitable burst](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/)... Also to just get them working, period. The shortages – [from power on down](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/when-ai-hype-meets-ai-reality-a-reckoning-in-6-charts-bf8043b4?ref=spyglass.org) – are starting to mount. As such, [so is the pressure](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ai-data-centers-face-delays-blame-game-begins?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). ### DeepMind Should Make the UK Proud and Embarrassed URL: https://spyglass.org/uk-growth-growth-growth/ Last updated: 2026-01-26T16:31:03.000Z While today is Thanksgiving in America, I'm not in America, so I thought it might be a good day to write about a topic where I am: the UK. Since my family moved here about two and a half years ago, I've slowly but surely been getting up to speed on the local things that one must – or at the very least, one can't avoid: taxes and politics. Both were in the spotlight yesterday with the announcement of [the budget](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvg4xx3kq9wt?ref=spyglass.org). And there's a tech angle here, I swear. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### NVIDIA's "Delight" URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-gpu-vs-google-tpu/ Last updated: 2026-01-26T16:30:46.000Z You know how I know that NVIDIA is concerned about Google's encroachment on their market? They won't shut up about how they're *not* concerned about it. As relayed by [Kif Leswing of *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/nvidia-says-its-gpus-are-a-generation-ahead-of-googles-ai-chips.html?ref=spyglass.org): > [Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/NVDA/?ref=spyglass.org) on Tuesday said its tech remains a generation ahead of the industry, in response to Wall Street’s concerns that the company’s dominance of AI infrastructure could be threatened by [Google’s](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL/?ref=spyglass.org) AI chips. > > “We’re delighted by Google’s success — they’ve made great advances in AI and we continue to supply to Google,” Nvidia said in a [post](https://x.com/nvidianewsroom/status/1993364210948936055?ref=spyglass.org) on X. “NVIDIA is a generation ahead of the industry — it’s the only platform that runs every AI model and does it everywhere computing is done.” I feel like a psychoanalyst could work wonders on that statement – including the fact that it's seemingly meant to be the royal "we", as it was [sent from the corporate account](https://x.com/nvidianewsroom/status/1993364210948936055?ref=spyglass.org), but it sure *feels* like it was written by or for one person who happens to be in charge of said company. Anyway, I don't know Sigmund Freud or Carl Jung, but I'm pretty sure my friend ChatGPT does, so I asked them to analyze the statement: > That has a passive-aggressive *flavor*, even though it's wrapped in corporate PR language. Here’s why: > > **💬 What the message says (on the surface)** > > • “We’re delighted by Google’s success.” > • “We continue to supply to Google.” > • “We’re the only platform that runs every AI model.” > > All of that is framed as positive, collaborative, upbeat. > > **😏 What the message *implies* (between the lines)** > > **• “Congrats to Google… but remember, they still rely on *us*.”** > **• “Google is succeeding thanks in part to our hardware.”** > **• “Whatever Google built, we’re still a generation ahead.”** > **• “They’re great… but we’re better, and essential.”** > > That contrast — *praising someone while subtly asserting superiority* — is a classic form of corporate passive-aggression. > > **Why it reads passive-aggressive** > > • The praise feels *performative*, not genuine. > • The second sentence immediately pivots to **asserting dominance** (“NVIDIA is a generation ahead…”). > • The phrasing implies: *“Let’s be clear: Google’s success doesn’t undermine us. In fact, it shows how central we are.”* Yeah, that's roughly my read. And the [read](https://x.com/ZuhaibHanfi/status/1993542367606198671?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) of [more](https://x.com/CaesarCapitalz/status/1993367530661200122?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) or [less](https://x.com/HimanshiTech/status/1993458435640508777?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) [everyone](https://x.com/imejasmin/status/1993533714543132722?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) on the [internet](https://x.com/lulumeservey/status/1993485593821823463?ref=spyglass.org). And thus marks [the *second day in a row*](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) that NVIDIA has sort of stepped in it with an overly aggressive (even if passive) self-own. If the first two rules of Bubble Club are not to talk about Enron, [the third rule](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1993372731526590592?ref=spyglass.org) is probably not to so overtly betray your fears in public under the thin veneer of competitive praise. Look, we get it. After a stock run the likes of which has never been seen at this scale, culminating in not just NVIDIA becoming [the most valuable company in the world](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/), but being the first stock to surpass both a $4T *and a $5T market cap*, the past couple of weeks have been rough. But "rough" is also relative, *NVIDIA is still a $4.3T company*, and *still* the most valuable company in the world. But yes, [Apple and... *Google* are quickly catching up](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/) as NVIDIA falls. It's a CEO's job to worry about such things, but it must be especially worrying when your best mechanism to combat this – and by far the hardest to pull off – [crushing your earnings expectations](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/), didn't really work to combat the drop.[1](#one) And that's a problem because it suggests the market is shifting from exuberance – be it rational or irrational – to irrational fear. And if that takes hold... watch out below. [Not just NVIDIA, but everyone](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-bubble/). But *especially* NVIDIA. So that's *clearly* why we're getting a response to [the concerns by short-sellers](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) and now to the market's reaction to [Google's recent success](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/). This is Jensen Huang trying to reassure everyone that everything is all good and quite rational. But *especially* NVIDIA. And he might not be wrong! Back to Leswing: > In its post, Nvidia said its chips are more flexible and powerful compared with [so-called ASIC](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/nvidia-gpus-google-tpus-aws-trainium-comparing-the-top-ai-chips.html?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Custom%20ASICs%2C%20or%20application%2Dspecific,companies'%20reliance%20on%20Nvidia%20GPUs.) chips — such as Google’s TPUs — which are designed for a single company or function. Nvidia’s latest generation of chips are known as Blackwell. > > “NVIDIA offers greater performance, versatility, and fungibility than ASICs,” Nvidia said in its post. There is certainly a world in which the flexibility that NVIDIA's GPUs offer over Google's TPUs ends up mattering. And perhaps *a lot* – especially if we're on the cusp of moving beyond, or even just *extending* from, being mainly focused on LLMs and instead are about to veer off into other types of AI models, [such as "World Models"](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/). (Though it's also clear that [Demis Hassibas is himself focused on such models](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8E%20World%20Models%2C%20So%20Hot%20Right%20Now) and as such, undoubtedly has Google's chips focused on how to train them as well.) Google's TPUs look great right now because they seem to be rivaling what NVIDIA's GPUs can do in terms of model outputs – based solely on the latest versions of Gemini. And even if NVIDIA is "a generation ahead", the TPUs are likely quite a bit more *efficient* by their nature of being purpose-built. Another fear (and eye-opening moment) in this news cycle for NVIDIA is probably the references to the notion that Google may have [cracked something new in pre-training](https://x.com/OriolVinyalsML/status/1990854455802343680?ref=spyglass.org) whereas the other models seem sort of "[stuck](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-wall/)" on their current trajectories in that regard. And that *could* imply [there's something about](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20Sam%20Altman%27s%20%27Rough%20Vibes%27%20Memo) the TPUs that helped with that breakthrough, whatever it may be. Or it may not imply that at all! [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). Well, *someone* does. But they're not talking. So the rest of us are left guessing. (Or *are they talking* in the form of passive aggressive tweeting? Just asking...) NVIDIA, of course, has absolutely owned the pre-training portion of AI to date – so much so that the other would-be competitors are mainly focused on other parts of the build-out, such as inference. So much so that they have become a $5T company! And while Google is believed to have been using TPUs to train Gemini for at least a couple of generations now, the fact that they still are one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA chips suggests there's still *something* they felt the need to use GPUs for as well – as NVIDIA implies in their statement! Though that's a bit gray as well since a lot of Google's NVIDIA bill is undoubtedly to be able to host their chips on Google Cloud for *others* to use... > “We are experiencing accelerating demand for both our custom TPUs and Nvidia GPUs,” a Google spokesperson said in a statement. “We are committed to supporting both, as we have for years.” That's an interesting and seemingly very specific phrasing and framing of a PR statement in response to NVIDIA's own PR statement! Such wording *seems* to suggest that Google's need for NVIDIA's chips are not for their own purposes but rather for their customers (of Google Cloud). But again, it's sort of gray! Undoubtedly on purpose! Anyway, [the reports](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-encroaches-nvidias-turf-new-ai-chip-push?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) that not only is Meta potentially partnering with Google to use TPUs, but is said to want *to acquire them to use them for training* of [new models](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/)... well, it certainly makes you at least think about NVIDIA's ongoing dominance there. > Unlike Nvidia, Google doesn’t sell its TPU chips to other companies, but it uses them for internal tasks and allows companies to rent them through Google Cloud. But they're [clearly](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/?ref=spyglass-signal-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Google%20TPUs%20Move%20More%20Into%20NVIDIA%27s%20Lane) about to... And we're quickly going to learn and *hear* a lot about price, performance, power consumption, etc. Any of which *could* be bad news for NVIDIA. And any *combination* of which could be even worse news.[2](#two) For the first time, there could be real competition in the market. Imagine that. And you can probably just follow NVIDIA's *actions* here to get a sense of how they *actually* feel about Google entering the market. From [*The Information* report by Amir Efrati, Erin Woo, and Anissa Gardizy](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-encroaches-nvidias-turf-new-ai-chip-push?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir): > Whether Google succeeds in its TPU efforts, the mere specter of a powerful alternative to Nvidia may have already yielded benefits for big Nvidia customers like Anthropic and OpenAI that don’t want to rely on a single AI chip provider. > > Last month, following a Google deal to provide up to 1 million TPUs to Anthropic, Huang announced another deal to invest billions of dollars into Anthropic. He also got a commitment from the AI startup to use Nvidia GPUs. > > Similarly, after it became publicly known OpenAI was planning to rent TPUs from Google Cloud, Huang struck a tentative deal to invest up to $100 billion in the ChatGPT maker so it could develop its own data centers, and has discussed leasing out Nvidia GPUs to the company. Yeah, we're [totally about to see](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) some sort of [massive](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) NVIDIA/Meta deal, aren't we? At the same time, the fact that the entire AI chip market is still supply constrained suggests NVIDIA's business probably doesn't have too much to worry about; certainly not in the short term. And if Google's pre-training breakthrough isn't something specific to their TPUs, it also suggests that LLM scaling, as we've known it to date, will likely continue for a while yet. And that's good news for the status quo, which is naturally good news for NVIDIA. Even if Google is able to start selling TPUs to third-parties, it will undoubtedly take a long time to ramp such production – probably *years*.[3](#three) And in this market, no one can afford to wait, quite literally. But all of the above is nuanced and hard to um, grok – certainly for most mom & pop investors, but even some Wall Street analysts, it seems. So NVIDIA is going down their own defensive path here. Which is misguided, but you get why they're doing it. The market has some jitters and the company atop the market is doing their best to try to calm those to keep the good times rolling. So sure, NVIDIA is "delighted by Google's success" in many ways. But they're also less "delighted" in other ways, naturally. And that relationship is seemingly going to get more complicated going forward... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/G6oLhWYbwAAKxEt.jpg)](https://x.com/andrew%5Fn%5Fcarr/status/1993418458877641208?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) credit: [@andrew\_n\_carr](https://x.com/andrew%5Fn%5Fcarr/status/1993418458877641208?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a partner at their venture fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [NVIDIA Evokes the ‘E’ WordBecause they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-690.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G6jU_qpWkAAJ2q5-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) [The Small NVIDIA ShortThe stakes keep rising for NVIDIA’s earnings as bears & bubbles loom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-691.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3E09DDDE-B86F-491E-AB82-A6CAA7173E56-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) [“Hey, There’s a Bubble.”Yes, it’s a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-692.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-10--2025--04_47_39-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) [Meta AI vs. the World (Models)The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-694.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-12--2025--06_54_53-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) [LLMs vs. the World (Models)A key schism in AI heading into 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-693.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_asteroid_flying_across_the_sky_as_volcanoes_explode__fdd28b40-9b8f-49c2-ab1c-d80d6a8eb796_1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) --- 1 One has to wonder if the true "break glass" mechanism NVIDIA tries to use here [involves China](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-21/trump-team-internally-floats-idea-of-selling-nvidia-h200-chips-to-china?ref=spyglass.org). If Jensen Huang can somehow convince the powers that be to let him sell there again it will give the stock bulls a new lease and outlook on life. But clearly he's having trouble convincing both the US *and* China to allow for this, despite [some extraordinary concessions](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/)... [↩](#) 2 My mind for some reason drifts to when Apple Silicon entered the CPU arena with a purpose-built chip to take on Intel. The incumbent kept touting top-end performance [without realizing](https://500ish.com/apples-embarrassment-of-intel-e2cf258ee320?ref=spyglass.org) that [the market had shifted](https://500ish.com/dial-m1-for-murder-f4e615a8a6bc?ref=spyglass.org) to prize efficiency more... I'm not saying this market will play out the same way, but it's certainly interesting to note. [↩](#) 3 And I'm not even getting into NVIDIA's software advantage here thanks to CUDA. Yes, many are trying to bridge that moat – including Google – but it's still a huge advantage their chips have that will take time to shift, if nothing else. [↩](#) ### Big Tech's Wild Market Cap Ride URL: https://spyglass.org/big-techs-wild-market-cap-ride/ Last updated: 2026-01-26T16:30:32.000Z It is *wild* how fast stocks can swing – but especially multi-trillion-dollar stocks. Case in point: with NVIDIA's fall from grace the past few sessions ([maybe don't bring up Enron](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/) in your memos?), Apple is on the verge of overtaking them as the market cap leader once again. Yes, Apple. Not just the AI laggard stock, but the company which spent much of the last year as [the AI laughingstock](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). As it turns out, perhaps [there was some upside](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) in *not* [committing](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) to trillions of dollars [in CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/). At least right now. But it's not just that because it's not just Apple. Google has rocketed higher than the rest of Big Tech over the past several months. Just this past June, under threat of [antitrust breakup](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/), I was writing about [how badly the market was undervaluing the company](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/).[1](#one) That wasn't really even about AI, but everything else they were doing, from Waymo on down. Not only were they a trillion behind Apple at the time, they were about to fall *two trillion* behind NVIDIA and Microsoft. They were behind Amazon. Hell, they were almost lapped by Meta! Just a few months later and the tables have turned. Thanks undoubtedly to the notion that not only is Google [no longer behind in AI](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/), but they might [all of a sudden be *ahead*](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/), they're also pretty close to overtaking NVIDIA in market cap. And that also puts them close to Apple and thus, close to the crown. Again, in June they were in 4th place in the "race" – and much closer to 5th than 4th, less than $200B ahead of Meta. *Now they're $2.3T ahead of Meta*. None of this really matters of course – and these massive swings show just how little all of it matters. (Though don't let these companies tell you they don't care about this at all – of course they do, [from Steve Jobs on down](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/#:~:text=with%20his%20David.-,One%20more%20thing,-%3A%20on%20January), they're all competitive and this is a measuring stick, albeit a sometime arbitrary one.) But it is [an interesting gauge](https://techcrunch.com/2012/08/20/give-the-money-back-to-the-shareholders/?ref=spyglass.org) to read investor sentiment of these companies [over time](https://parislemon.com/post/1348979776/what-would-i-do-revisited?ref=spyglass.org). A year ago, Apple was king of the world. After getting passed by not only their old foe Microsoft but also [their sometimes foe](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) NVIDIA [earlier in the year](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/), they came roaring back. In November 2024, the rankings looked like this: 1. **Apple**: $3.6T 2. **NVIDIA**: $3.3T 3. **Microsoft**: $3.1T 4. **Google**: $2.3T 5. **Amazon**: $2.1T 6. **Meta**: $1.5T Six months later, in May 2025, it was a different story: 1. **Microsoft**: $3.4T 2. **Apple**: $3.2T 3. **NVIDIA**: $3T 4. **Amazon**: $2.2T 5. **Google**: $2T 6. **Meta**: $1.7T But by July, just two months later, boom went Microsoft, but even more boom went NVIDIA – both crossed $4T that month, the first companies to ever do so (after [Apple had been the first to $1T, $2T, and $3T](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1942951611757977836?ref=spyglass.org)): 1. **NVIDIA**: $4.4T 2. **Microsoft**: $4T 3. **Apple**: $3.1T 4. **Amazon**: $2.5T 5. **Google**: $2.2T 6. **Meta**: $2T By October, just three months after that, NVIDIA hit the mythical **$5T** and was running away: 1. **NVIDIA**: $5T 2. **Microsoft**: $3.8T 3. **Apple**: $3.8T 4. **Google**: $3T 5. **Amazon**: $2.7T 6. **Meta**: $1.7T And here we are now, [mid-day on November 25, 2025](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1993348161503740290?ref=spyglass.org): 1. **NVIDIA**: $4.2T 2. **Apple**: $4.1T 3. **Google**: $3.9T 4. **Microsoft**: $3.5T 5. **Amazon**: $2.4T 6. **Meta**: $1.6T ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Code_Generated_Image.png) In one year, that's NVIDIA gaining $900B in market cap – but also *losing* about $900B from their peak. Apple gained $500B after losing about $500B at one point. Microsoft gained $400B but are also about $600B off their highs for the year. Amazon gained $300B and has been the most stable of the group. Meta gained $100B and remained in the six spot the entire year after nearly catching Google just a few months ago, as noted. Google hasn't held the top market cap spot since a couple brief moments in 2016 (I was there!), but it feels inevitable that they'll retake it again soon. That is unless NVIDIA can find a way to stop sending memos mentioning their business in the same breath as Enron. Stop doing that and they may just have another run or two in them... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Gemini_Generated_Image_ygtvviygtvviygtv-1.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Alphabet is Literally Worth Less Than the Sum of Its PartsForget the DoJ, this is the best case for a “break up” of Google, which won’t happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-688.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-4--2025--05_59_18-PM-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) [NVIDIA’s Last Laugh with AppleNVIDIA hits $3T market cap and soars past Apple![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-687.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-06-05-at-10.09.23-PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-689.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) --- 1 FWIW, [my math at the time suggested](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) **Alphabet, then valued at $2T, should be valued closer to $3.5T**, and probably higher, if they were giving all of the other businesses beyond Google more of a fair market value. And well, here we are! [↩](#) ### NVIDIA Evokes the 'E' Word URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-evokes-the-e-word/ Last updated: 2026-01-23T14:09:04.000Z The first rule of Bubble Club is you do not talk about Enron. The second rule of Bubble Club is you **do not** talk about Enron. NVIDIA, it seems, didn't get the memo, [as they *sent* a memo to Wall Street analysts](https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stock-ai-accounting-allegations-366f16ac?ref=spyglass.org) mentioning the-company-who-shall-not-be-named *multiple times*... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Failing to Realize Why Modern Antitrust Keeps Failing URL: https://spyglass.org/modern-antitrust-keeps-failing/ Last updated: 2026-01-23T14:08:49.000Z After [his last op-ed in *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/opinion/google-antitrust-remedy-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) completely and utterly [failed to sway the judge](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) in Google's antitrust case to [enact harsh remedies](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/), Tim Wu is back with [another essay](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/opinion/meta-facebook-antitrust-ruling.html?ref=spyglass.org), aiming to escalate the general argument to a higher level. Here, his target is Meta, which [just won their own antitrust case](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/), with a different judge ruling that the government failed to make the case that the company had an illegal monopoly in the social apps space. "How Can Anyone Seriously Doubt Meta Is a Monopoly?" is the headline I got served in my RSS feed, but it has seemingly since been tweaked to "The Bad Reasoning in the Meta Antitrust Ruling Isn’t Even the Worst Part". The first headline was clearly better – albeit silly, as a federal judge literally just *did* doubt that, legally – the second one is a mouthful, but again, aims to take the argument broader. In this way, Wu's op-ed is similar to one that the [*NYT* ran last February from Lina Khan](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/opinion/deepseek-ai-big-tech.html?ref=spyglass.org). It was a remarkable read because [nearly every point she made was wrong](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/). And now Wu is trying to give her a run for her money. > But to dwell on the shortcomings of Judge Boasberg’s reasoning is to overlook something even worse: the message that his ruling sends to the country. The United States is in a precarious moment when it comes to the rule of law and democratic accountability. Unchecked wealth and corporate power have led many to doubt that our system is fair. Judge Boasberg’s ruling only fortifies the impression that the world’s wealthiest and most powerful corporations are above the law. I mean, maybe the ruling gives that sense to others, maybe it doesn't. But obviously it's not the judge's job to make legal rulings so that the country will nebulously feel better about inequality. This is, basically the argument Wu attempts to make in the entire peace. Forget the law, judge, *think about the* *vibes*! > A chief goal of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, which the government accused Meta of violating, is to make clear who is actually in charge of the county. As President Theodore Roosevelt explained in 1901, the “vital question” is whether “the government has the power to control the trusts.” He understood that unaccountable power is a threat to the Republic and that the spectacle of untouchable elites fosters widespread resentment. Humorous typo aside – "county"? I thought we were thinking bigger Tim! – as the name itself highlights, *this law is 135 years old*. It pre-dated the Wright Brothers flight by just over a decade. Basically no piece of technology we use today had been invented yet, except perhaps the automobile, but only just barely. To say that the world is different today would be the understatement of the century – actually, of *two centuries*. We can all agree with President Roosevelt's general sentiment – outlined a mere 124 years ago – but that doesn't change the fact that the antitrust theories of not just the 19th century, but even the 20th century, [are wildly outdated and unequipped](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) to suit the 21st century. And yes, both the Meta and Google cases highlighted this reality in different ways. > Tuesday’s ruling is clearly wrong on the merits. The government charged that Meta, then called Facebook, broke the law when it bought up its competitors Instagram and WhatsApp in 2012 and 2014\. Judge Boasberg threw out the case by concluding that Meta lacks monopoly power now, when the relevant question should have been whether it had monopoly power at the time. No, it was not wrong on the merits. The argument against Meta [was poor and misguided](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) – to the point where it was initially thrown out before getting reworked with the bare minimum tweaks to get it to trial. One major issue with these antitrust cases is that [they're being litigated in hindsight](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) – which is both obviously but obviously an issue with tech in particular, as it moves so fast to as make most central arguments moot by the time of trial. So Wu's argument here is that they should punish Meta (then Facebook) for past rule-breaking even though the government obviously looked into and approved their deals at the time. Why? In part because both deals weren't taken all that seriously back then by many. The Instagram deal, in particular, was mocked. Not by *all* of us, mind you! But [my blog post at the time](https://parislemon.com/post/20833947117/one-burbn-one-scotch-one-beer?ref=spyglass.org) clearly failed to convince anyone that perhaps in the future, these would grow into [massive companies](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/) under Facebook. Essentially, Wu would prefer the judge makes the ruling based on the success of the deals that most at the time didn't think would be successful – and probably no one did to the extent that they have! And he doesn't want the judge ruling on the case for how things stand now. So he would like the judge to rule on the case based on some random moment in time where Facebook held monopoly power over social networking. Okay. > But even to deny that Meta now holds a monopoly in personal social networking (sharing with friends and family) means ignoring a lot of directevidence to the contrary. The government presented records of the company’s extraordinary and durable profits ($87.1 billion operating profit on $164.5 billion in revenue in 2024, for example), which is a textbook signal of monopoly power. The company has also subjected users to more and more ads, removed privacy protections and otherwise reduced the quality of its service without losing its user base, which is hard for a company facing competition to do. Then perhaps the government should make the case about Meta's *ads* business – as they're also currently doing with Google – not with the "personal social networking" silly moment-in-time made up market definition. But again, that's not the case that the government made – and undoubtedly in part because of Google's position in said ad market. > Those failings aside, Judge Boasberg’s ruling is also flawed in a broader sense. Does anyone seriously doubt that Meta is the kind of company that antitrust laws were designed to restrain? In the 1980s and 1990s, judges held AT&T and Microsoft to account for antitrust violations, despite their protests. In the 1940s, when the federal judge Learned Hand pondered a similar case against the Alcoa company, which dominated the aluminum market in the United States, he granted that there were “legal niceties” in which one might get “entangled.” But he concluded that “if we hold that it is not a monopoly,” everyone not caught up in those niceties would “quite rightly I think, write us down as asses.” Why yes, I do have some doubts that laws written 135 years ago would foresee the rise of a social feed ad network. The rest of Meta does not make any real money – famously so in the case of VR and now AI – so it's all just that one business. Also, the Microsoft "victory" was more similar to the Google one in that nothing really changed as a result. People like Wu love to argue that it changed everything, leaving out what happened after the victory that neutered the remedies. [What disrupted Microsoft was natural market forces](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/). At best, you can say they were slightly distracted by the case, but they would have been disrupted regardless. Also, Microsoft is now a $4T company. What a great victory for antitrust! I don't know enough about the 1940s aluminum market to have a strong opinion there. But it strikes me that the market and time were probably different from, say, mobile applications in 2025\. At least the 1940s were closer to the 1890s than we are now... > Judge Boasberg’s ruling in the Meta case follows a ruling last year by the federal judge Amit Mehta, who found that Google is an illegal monopoly — yet this year [could not bring himself](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/02/technology/google-search-antitrust-decision.html?ref=spyglass.org) to impose on Google a strong remedy. Such decisions effectively bless one of the major power imbalances of our age. They signal to companies that spending millions of dollars on lawyers will be repaid with billions of dollars in profit. And they reinforce the tech industry’s sense of impunity — its belief that it is an untouchable sovereign above the control of any mere human. Project much, my guy? Again, it is not the judge's job to make a ruling that Tim Wu believes will better balance power inequality in the US. The job is to look at the case in front of you and rule on that. And Judge Mehta *did* rule that [Google was a monopoly](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/), but he also [rightfully concluded](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) that [the remedies](https://spyglass.org/the-google-break-up/) put forward [wouldn't actually change](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) where Google had the monopoly. And that the market was already [doing its own thing](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) to [change that market dynamic](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/). I *do* think there was [a better case to be made](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) about not being able to leverage the Search monopoly going forward to unnaturally prop-up Google's other services – which is something Microsoft was also regularly found in violation of for years after their antitrust issues – like, [say, AI](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). > Despite a decade of Meta-related scandals and whistle-blowers, no public authority in this country has been able to hold the company meaningfully accountable for its behavior — a striking failure of our political system. Unfortunately, this ineffectuality is part of a broader trend. Many policies enacted in the 20th century to maintain economic fairness in the United States have been undermined or gutted: labor law, financial regulation, telecommunications law and taxation, among others. For decades those laws forestalled a collapse into a two-class society, avoiding the extreme class tensions that have upended other republics. This is obviously oversimplified, but I'm not even sure I really disagree with this at the highest level. But the issue here is that *this is unrelated to this antitrust case*, which was a weak case around a very specific set of circumstances. It was not the judges job to rule if Meta should be punished for, say, privacy scandals here. > When Roosevelt embarked on his antitrust campaign in 1902, he did so with the view that it was necessary to preserve democracy. His was a moment like ours, with a dangerously unbalanced economy, extremist ideologies vying for adherents and a near-revolt of American farmers in the Midwest. But the federal and state governments diffused that anger by taming the railroads, regulating the banks and breaking up most of the big trusts. > > This time around we are on track to do nothing of the kind. Congress has done little to restore economic balance and courts are showing themselves to be out of touch with economic realities that any American could describe. It is no wonder the population is growing increasingly cynical — and more and more ready to look to ideologies that promise to upend the entire system. Beyond the overtly political statement, here we go again with references that are over a century old. Even if you agree that there are some parallels with the United States as it was 123 years ago, *obviously, the same laws and policies aren't going to make sense in 2025*. Instead, what Wu should argue for here is a *new* Roosevelt, someone to rally the country to come up with and pass *new* laws to handle such issues. Laws written in the 21st century, to tackle challenges in the 21st century. But that's a lot harder than bringing forward weak cases and making outdated arguments around old laws. And it's certainly harder than writing endless and pointless op-eds. **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a partner at their venture fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Judge Rules FTC Wasted Everyone’s Time with Meta CaseHighlighting how Big Tech antitrust is broken in our current era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-621.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-19--2025--12_48_29-PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) [Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google LostChrome stays. Payments stay. Exclusive placement goes. Some Search data goes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-620.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-2--2025--11_05_30-PM-11.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) [Google Lost a Search Antitrust Case. Will Gemini Take the Blame?As the remedies loom, AI is top of mind…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-619.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_handcuffed_in_court_--v_7_0e5126aa-82bd-4938-bb00-12c06e9e2a5a_3-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) [Earth to Lina KhanNearly every point in her NYT op-ed is wrong![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-622.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_earth_in_blue_and_green_with_a_person_floating_in_s_788062cb-35cb-4d1c-8c48-9728c314205c_2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/) [Antitrust’s Hindsight ProblemThe government keeps trying to litigate problems that are already being naturally disrupted…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-623.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-22--2025--02_38_40-PM-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) ### 'Pluribus' as AI Allegory URL: https://spyglass.org/pluribus-as-ai-allegory/ Last updated: 2026-01-21T18:51:35.000Z Let's talk about *Pluribus*. Admittedly, I was a bit late in starting to watch it, but after hearing non-stop buzz about how good it is, I gave in... ❗ We're caught up now through episode 4, so consider everything from this point on to be ****spoilers** of those first four episodes. The first episode is good, but also a bit misleading for the rest of the show thus far. It's a full-on zombie apocalypse situation. Yes, people are raised from the dead [Night King-style](https://gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/Night%5FKing?ref=spyglass.org) with smiles upon their faces, but still, that's what it is. And this leads you down the path of thinking this is setting up to be a social commentary on the "hive mind". That is also nothing new with it comes to science fiction, of course. But it does feel more timely than ever in our current culture. But then it keeps going. And now I'm here wondering if this isn't in fact meant to be a commentary about AI? To be clear and fair, that's probably projecting a bit much just given [what I tend to write about](https://spyglass.org/tag/ai/). But it also works! Almost perfectly. Large Language Models in particular. Watching *Pluribus* feels like a statement about using ChatGPT, or Gemini, or any of the AI "chatbots"! Granted, the allegory may break down if you simply look at the timeline for when [Vince Gilligan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince%5FGilligan?ref=spyglass.org) (*Breaking Bad*, *Better Call Saul*, etc) was writing this show. ChatGPT, of course, launched in November 2022 – happy 3 year birthday next week! – and that very tool tells me that Gilligan was writing the show in 2023 and into 2024\. Now it's certainly possible that he was ChatGPT-pilled by then, but it also feels fairly unlikely as he's not a person who, say, lives and works in Silicon Valley. Still, it's possible! Regardless, it doesn't really matter. Because at least through these first four episodes, *Pluribus* works as a pretty great analogy for LLM-based AI. To wit: All of humanity's knowledge is involuntarily uploaded to the collective "cloud", as it were. With this, any of the beings on Earth – aside from a handful that the virus couldn't infect for unknown reasons[1](#one) – have access to all of this information in real time. And any of the "unenlightened", when they ask any question of these connected beings, they get back a [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/) factually true, but often bland response in real time. [The consensus view](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/), quite literally. Have I mentioned the responses are *highly* sycophantic? Always said [with a smile on the face](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/). I'm watching this and as the story unfolds, I'm thinking at times that it's almost *too much on the nose* for our current situation. Again, I'm not sure Gilligan meant this as an AI allegory versus simply a "hive mind" one about broader culture – and I'm specifically *not* reading about such things so as not to spoil anything for me, or alter my own thoughts on the matter – but it feels almost too perfect. Beyond just the high-level stuff, it actually goes deeper with power/resource conservation and, in the most recent episode, even prompt injecting! By literal injection! How's that for on the nose?! Again, maybe I'm reading too much into this. But I'm not sure that I am. And I'm going to keep going with it until proven otherwise in future episodes. Overall, I like the show thus far, but don't love it in the way that others seem to. It's fun and interesting and at times good, but also slow. The same could be said of Gilligan's other shows at times, I suppose. But this one has the most clear *Lost* vibes. But you know, hand grenade aside, there's not a lot of action. I'm assuming that changes as the season crosses the halfway point. Maybe we don't get smoke monsters, but instead some agentic beings meant to convert Carol at all costs – perhaps quite literally. Something to watch, quite literally. --- **Update December 28, 2025**: Some further thoughts on this theme (and the first season in general with it now over)... [Apple’s ‘Pluribus’ SlopAs season one ends, I’m not sure this use of AI slop was sloppy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-824.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/G85WZn6XMAEUsPq.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-pluribus-ai/) --- 1 A woke mind virus? [↩](#) ### Signal: Google Roars Back 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-google-roars-back/ Last updated: 2025-11-21T20:32:39.000Z Stocks seem to be whipsawing right now to close the week – up, down, up, down, up. It's like a *Contra* or *Zelda* code (more on that below). Regardless, the swirl ([thanks](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/), [NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/)) seemingly has [pushed](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1991894079135973541?ref=spyglass.org) Google ahead of Microsoft to be the third most highly valued company in the world from a market cap perspective. Sort of a wild ascent given that *just six months ago* [I was writing about how undervalued Alphabet seemed](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) as a stock relative to its parts. The company has gained *over $1.6T in market value* since that post – the stock is up nearly 80%. --- ### The Inner Ring [LLMs vs. the World (Models)A key schism in AI heading into 2026…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-612.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_asteroid_flying_across_the_sky_as_volcanoes_explode__fdd28b40-9b8f-49c2-ab1c-d80d6a8eb796_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) [Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIAHow do you become a $5T company? It’s simple, really…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-617.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs_draw_a_hammer_made_of_cash_illustration_16x9_--ar_169_--v_1fb7603b-a302-4795-aada-42a5ddf1dfd6_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/) --- ### Take One... **🌎** [**World Models, So Hot Right Now**](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%20Raising%20at%20%2450B) – With Gemini 3 out the door, what is Google DeepMind's Demis Hassibas now spending most of his (research) time on these days? The same thing [that Yann LeCun](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) and seemingly [many others are](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/)... And he thinks we may be closing in on a "ChatGPT moment" for the "World Model" space – if we can get the costs down. Luckily, Google has the "huge advantage" of TPUs – something which is seemingly [becoming more clear](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) [by the day](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/). And it may become more clear yet if and when [the AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) bursts. "It feels like there’s obviously a bubble in the private market. You look at seed rounds with just nothing really being tens of billions of dollars. That seems a little unsustainable. It’s not quite logical to me." That's a bit self-serving, of course. [But that doesn't mean it's wrong](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%20Raising%20at%20%2450B)! **\[**[**Sources**](https://sources.news/p/demis-hassibas-on-gemini-3-world?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📽️** [**Netflix's Warner Bros Bid Includes Theatrical Promise**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/netflix-has-told-warner-bros-it-would-release-films-in-theaters?ref=spyglass.org) – It seems like each week now brings a new sign that Netflix is thawing their stance against theatrical releases for their content ([a prediction I made a year ago](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)). To be fair, this one is probably necessary if the company wants any shot of competing for the Warner Bros movie studio (which has agreements already in place for theatrical distribution). Still, it [once again](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) signals that Netflix is not as militant on this stance as they have historically [projected in public](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/). And this will continue soon [with the release](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-ending-installments/) of the final season of *Stranger Things*, which is ([smartly](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org)) paired with [a theatrical experience](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/). And there will be more calls and [pressure](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/) when the third *Knives Out* is released, which would [obviously](https://mgs.blog/netflixs-glass-onion-slays-in-limited-release-6731debe3923?ref=spyglass.org) be a huge theatrical event because Netflix has helped make it a big franchise. It doesn't have to be [all-or-nothing here](https://500ish.com/inside-outside-2117bd44b755?ref=spyglass.org), Netflix [*should* leverage theaters](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) where it makes sense both for marketing *and to make money*, imagine that. BTW, those first bids [from Paramount](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/), Comcast, and Netflix [are now in](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/business/media/warner-discovery-bids-paramount-netflix-comcast.html?ref=spyglass.org) David Zaslav's hands... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/netflix-has-told-warner-bros-it-would-release-films-in-theaters?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** 📲 [**Perplexity's Mobile AI Browser**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/20/perplexity-brings-its-ai-browser-comet-to-android/?ref=spyglass.org) – For all the [talk](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/) and [hype](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/) about [the "AI Browser Wars"](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/), I've been surprised that none of the major players have tried to immediately go after the green field: mobile. I get that it's harder to do – in particular on iOS which remains locked-down when it comes to browser technology, which is undoubtedly part of the reason why Perplexity is starting with Android. Still, as someone now fully sold on using an AI browser, I find it weird/frustrating to use a mobile browser and have no such AI options to do what I regularly do on the desktop now. Instead I have to use a separate app, like an animal. There might even be [a real opportunity](https://spyglass.org/arc-search/) on iOS as Apple should add AI functionality to Safari in about 15 years. I still regularly use The Browser Company's ([clever](https://spyglass.org/pinch-to-summarize/)) [Arc mobile app](https://spyglass.org/unchoking-the-web/), even though they've [abandoned ship](https://spyglass.org/the-new-ai-browsers/) on Arc for the more AI-centric Dia. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/20/perplexity-brings-its-ai-browser-comet-to-android/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📺** [**Big Streamers Bet Big On 'Pause Ads'**](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/big-streamers-bet-increasingly-aggressive-pause-ads-1236573703/?ref=spyglass.org) – As much as I [generally dislike](https://500ish.com/make-the-tv-commercials-stop-96e6711183aa?ref=spyglass.org) advertising – certainly, when it's say, [crammed into your TV UI](https://spyglass.org/roku-adds-ads/), or certainly [your refrigerator](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=You%20know%20that%20Samsung%20refrigerator%20you%20bought%20with%20the%20cool%20display%20on%20the%20door%3F%20I%20have%20good%20news/bad%20news.%20The%20bad%20news%20is%20that%20this%20screen%20will%20now%20be%20shoving%20advertising%20into%20your%20kitchen.%20The%20good%20news%20is%20nothing.%20%5BAndroid%20Authority%5D)! – I think I'm actually okay with this. Right now when you pause content, it's just frozen as a static image. Some people obviously pause to try to catch something, but most of the time it's just to do something else. So I'm okay with using this otherwise dead space – especially if the ad is actually relevant to something you just saw on-screen. You can imagine a world in which some consumers may even pause on purpose to see if they can buy something they're seeing. This may sound like the definition of dystopia to any filmmaker, but you could see this being a thing if it worked well enough. Certainly for Amazon TVs! And in general, I'd be more in favor of this type of ad if you got something back in exchange for seeing it, such as [a discount](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) on the streaming service. Sort of like the lock screen ads on Kindles. Or even [that free TV set](https://500ish.com/the-advertising-first-television-a8d1929d99ea?ref=spyglass.org) that has the ad bar at the bottom. This all [sounds like a nightmare to me](https://spyglass.org/signal-falling-into-hardware/#:~:text=%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,%F0%9F%93%BA%20Telly%20Hell,-%E2%80%93%20When%20I%20first), but I get it. And I don't think it has to be all bad. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/big-streamers-bet-increasingly-aggressive-pause-ads-1236573703/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💸** [**Sam Altman's 'Rough Vibes' Memo**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-braces-possible-economic-headwinds-catching-resurgent-google?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – Three interesting elements here. First, that Altman felt the need to write this just ahead of Google's release of Gemini 3\. Clearly, he knew it was going to be good. And second, that's a problem for OpenAI because if nothing else, it highlights [a fear](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) that many investors and watchers have that Google's sheer size and scale – and most importantly, profits – will allow them to ride [ChatGPT's first-mover advantage](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) into the ground. This is obviously why OpenAI is trying to move heaven and earth to [create their own infrastructure](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) – but do they have enough time before [the bubble bursts](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/)? That's the million dollar [question](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). Actually, *the* [*trillion dollar*](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) *one*. [Perhaps](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) *several* trillion. Finally, the specific notion that Google has in some way overcome the pre-training hurdles that the other LLM makers have run into is interesting... Google itself is [playing this up](https://x.com/OriolVinyalsML/status/1990854455802343680?ref=spyglass.org) – is it something specific about TPUs (versus NVIDIA's GPUs) or something else in the process? That's [also a several trillion dollar question](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/)! **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-braces-possible-economic-headwinds-catching-resurgent-google?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Wrote... [Let Tim CookMight Tim Cook retire as CEO of Apple in early 2026? There are signs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-610.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_tim_cook_holding_an_apple_illustration_16x9_image__4bdbfe46-63ba-402b-825d-922e5ed54bd0_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/) [Apple’s First-Look Fall & Secondary SpringThere are real risks in Apple’s would-be new iPhone launch strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-611.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-17--2025--11_53_56-AM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apples-first-look-fall-secondary-spring/) [Collect Them All (AI Edition)An ongoing list of the tangled web of Big Tech investments in Big AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-614.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_the_gauntlet_showcasing_infinity_stones_cartoon_16_63064780-aac9-46e1-b3d6-091769114cdd_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) [When Steve Jobs Fused Silicon Valley & Hollywood at Pixar“It’s the story, stupid.” Well, and the talent.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-616.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-11-19-at-8.05.15---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/) --- ### I Quote... > "You can’t go through 50 states. You have to get one approval. Fifty is a disaster. Because you’ll have one woke state and you’ll have to do all woke. You’ll be back in the woke business. We don’t have woke anymore in this country. It’s virtually illegal. You’ll have a couple of wokesters." – **The President of the United States** [with some very deep and serious thoughts](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/824608/trump-executive-order-ai-state-laws?ref=spyglass.org) as to why he might issue an Executive Order to stop states from enacting their own AI laws. Interestingly enough, this notion is something that at least [some of the MAGA base is pushing back against](https://www.ft.com/content/e087e732-5f71-4db3-b613-830f3cee313d?ref=spyglass.org). That's right, AI and Epstein are the issues dividing the party. --- ### I Wrote Even More... [The Small NVIDIA ShortThe stakes keep rising for NVIDIA’s earnings as bears & bubbles loom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-613.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3E09DDDE-B86F-491E-AB82-A6CAA7173E56-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/) [Group ChatGPTOpenAI has a shot at layering social on top of their AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-609.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dudegpt-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/) [Google Starts to Bridge OpenAI’s Product MoatGemini’s “Dynamic View” is a terrible name for a profound product…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-618.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-11-21-at-10.44.07---AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/) [Judge Rules FTC Wasted Everyone’s Time with Meta CaseHighlighting how Big Tech antitrust is broken in our current era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-615.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-19--2025--12_48_29-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/) --- ### Asides... - As always, a solid overview presentation by Benedict Evans. "**AI Eats the World**" is well worth the flip-through. **\[**[**Ben Evans**](https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Something else **Demis Hassabis** may be focused on these days? AlphaAssist a **universal assistant** powered by DeepMind technology in the vein of Tony Stark's [J.A.R.V.I.S](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J.A.R.V.I.S.?ref=spyglass.org). Sounds like a "Siri done right". **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/investigations/googles-top-ai-executive-seeks-profound-over-profits-prosaic-2025-11-13/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Also: in 2019, before the rise of ChatGPT, **OpenAI** apparently approached Demis about doing a **JV** to work towards **AGI**. He, of course, declined... - ***Stargate*** news! No, not [OpenAI's data center project](https://spyglass.org/tag/stargate/), but the sci-fi franchise from which that project took its name. It's being **rebooted**... by **Amazon**, which acquired the rights alongside MGM. Sort of an awkward IP dance there! Though SoftBank apparently [owns the trademark](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/softbank-openai-a3dc57b4?ref=spyglass.org)? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/stargate-revived-prime-video-new-series-1236431118/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta's** new '**Hyperscape**' technology, the ability to scan a room with a **Quest** headset to make a VR version of it [looks very impressive](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV28618GD7w&t=1s&ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/825705/meta-hyperscape-social-links-capture-scan-metaverse?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Just a week after their limited test in a few countries, **ChatGPT** **group chats** are now live around the world – [I suspected this would happen quickly](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/) as there's some real sticky (in a good way for OpenAI) potential here... **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/20/chatgpt-launches-group-chats-globally/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Framing the 'AI Bubble' as an '**LLM Bubble**' seems like a reasonable way to point out the obvious while still signaling that you're bullish on AI overall, so kudos to Hugging Face CEO **Clem Delangue** for coining it. **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2025/11/18/hugging-face-delangue-axios-bfd-2025-llm-bubble?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The new deal [where](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/) Microsoft and NVIDIA will invest in **Anthropic** so Anthropic can spend money with Microsoft and NVIDIA values the startup at **$350B**. Time to update the [OpenAI "Constellations" chart](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/) once again... **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/18/anthropic-ai-azure-microsoft-nvidia.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Needing to keep up with the AI Joneses (and needing money), **xAI** getting more funding to secure a **$230B** valuation it seems. Also technically an OpenAI [Constellation](https://spyglass.org/the/)! **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/elon-musks-xai-in-advanced-talks-to-raise-15-billion-lifting-valuation-00bcfa80?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Do I hear **$480B** for **ByteDance**? Why not. Also, where the hell is [that TikTok sale](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/)?! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/bytedance-s-valuation-soars-to-480-billion-in-share-auction?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - In other circular deal news, did **Oracle's** $300B deal with **OpenAI** actually *backfire*? It's seemingly a problem (to Wall Street at least) when neither side actually has the money in the bank to spend on such deals. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/064bbca0-1cb2-45ab-85f4-25fdfc318d89?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Beyond the money, one hold up in the **Disney**/Google negotiations may have been about letting **YouTube TV** offer smaller/cheaper/focused packages which is [obviously needed](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/) as [prices rise exponentially](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/). **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2025/11/17/youtube-tv-packages-likely-on-the-way-renewed-disney-deal-hints/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I'm getting worried, ***Heat 2*** is [seemingly sounding](https://spyglass.org/amazon-heat-2-movie/) almost *too good* to be true – now **Christian Bale** may be on board too?! **\[**[**Deadline**](https://deadline.com/2025/11/heat-2-christian-bale-from-michael-mann-1236620381/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - This is a month old, but I've gotten enough messages about this over the years... **Ghost** has *finally* implemented a way to **login** to sites (such as ***Spyglass***) without needing to use an email link. Instead, they can now send you a one-time code (to your email) to login. **\[**[**Ghost**](https://ghost.org/changelog/one-time-codes-for-sign-in/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... It feels like I've been [waiting](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/546715932631244801?ref=spyglass.org) my whole life for a *Legend of Zelda* movie. While I loved *Mario*, my [favorite](https://spyglass.org/zelda-at-last/) Nintendo game was always *Zelda*. From the golden NES cartridge on down, it was absolutely magical to me. I even tolerated *Zelda II*, which was rewarded in the form of *A Link to the Past*, the Super Nintendo sequel which is [still my favorite](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-games-on-your-iphone/) of the series (undoubtedly for [nostalgic reasons](https://spyglass.org/videogames-hollywood/)). Anyway, just seeing this one shot (and some [spy cam footage](https://www.reddit.com/r/Breath%5Fof%5Fthe%5FWild/comments/1oxidq6/spoilers%5Ffor%5Fzelda%5Ffilm%5Ffirst%5Ffootage%5Ffrom%5Fthe/?ref=spyglass.org)) is insanely exciting to me. They [better not](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/563809445759971328?lang=en-GB&ref=spyglass.org) fuck this up, and at least from this, [it doesn't](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168483112/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) *look* like [they will](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/nintendo-legend-of-zelda-movie-first-look-1236429466/?ref=spyglass.org). [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/-Legend-of-Zelda--1.webp)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/nintendo-legend-of-zelda-movie-first-look-1236429466/?ref=spyglass.org) ### Google Starts to Bridge OpenAI's Product Moat URL: https://spyglass.org/gemini-vs-chatgpt-product/ Last updated: 2026-01-19T15:21:10.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-11-21-at-10.44.07---AM-1.png) I have a simple method for [my own AI rankings](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/): product delight. That is, when I use the various services from the players in AI, do they constantly surprise and delight me with not only the outputs but also the user experience details. Put simply: is it the best product for me, the end user, to use? It's subjective. But I trust my taste. For it is my own. Anyway, this very scientific approach is why I've always considered ChatGPT the best product in the category. And judging from usage, I'm obviously not alone there. Sure, some of that is the first-mover advantage that OpenAI enjoys – which, in turn, has helped from a branding perspective as ChatGPT (a rough name to say and even spell out for many) is becoming sort of the "Kleenex" of the field. But beyond any technical capabilities, [I've just always found OpenAI's strength](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) to be in productizing AI in a way that their peers haven't been able to match. At least when it comes to consumers. To be clear, I still think that's the case ([see the recent Sora vs. Vibes](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) "[battle](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/)" and [Group ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/)), but I also can't help but wonder if Google is closing the gap. Yes, Google, the company famous for amazing technology but often flubbing the product when it comes to the roll out. That included, naturally, their first stab at AI. "Bard" was a comical flop, but they were quickly able to regroup and find their footing with "Gemini". And over the past year or so, it has felt like they were really making some strides and perhaps [stepping on the gas](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). Gemini 3 feels like the culmination of that. And the early technical benchmarks look impressive. But just as impressive to me are the product touches Google has been dishing out. [NotebookLM was perhaps the start of this](https://spyglass.org/notebookllm-podcasts/), but more recently, I was impressed by Google's ability to actually create [a sort of viral product moment](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8C%20%27Nano%20Banana%27%20Helps%20Gemini%20Go%20Viral) with "Nano Banana" – going so far as to [lean into](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-bananas/) the silly codename ([taking my advice?](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/seeing-jensens-shadow?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Playing%20around%20with%20Google%27s%20new%20%27Gemini%202.5%20Flash%20Image%27%20model%20focused%20on%20image%20editing%20and%20yes%2C%20it%27s%20really%20good.%20My%20only%20complaint%20is%20that%20they%20should%20have%20actually%20named%20it%20%27Nano%20Banana%27!%20%5BTechCrunch%5D%20%F0%9F%8D%8C)). There are now bananas – literal banana emojis – all over the UI. This mixed with the little, colorful graphical flourishes when using Gemini are just... nice. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-11-21-at-10.50.20---AM.png) Then last night [I stumbled into](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1991633052468932662?ref=spyglass.org) Gemini's "Dynamic view" option. This is decidedly *not* a good name as it hides a product output that's truly profound in a sheath of blandness. But I mean, *you have to try this*. From describing the end of *Heat* ([spoilers](https://gemini.google.com/share/e1683d253f6d?ref=spyglass.org)) to explaining *Interstellar* ([spoilers](https://gemini.google.com/share/c43b7b242982?ref=spyglass.org)), it's *wild* what Gemini is able to do here. Basically, it takes what would be a useful AI text-based answer and wraps it in an interactive, visual output. It's honestly a bit hard to describe, but each result contains about a dozen little bits that are beyond impressive. *Especially for something that Gemini is able to create in about a minute*. From the background sound (which you can toggle on and off) for the *Interstellar* result, to the time dilation relativity calculator for 'Miller's Planet', to the "landing lights" button to illuminate Neil McCauley's shadow in *Heat*. I mean, it really made this. Out of the blue. Again, in 60 seconds. All of this sounds almost silly, but it also points to a world in which increasingly complex creations are able to be made on the fly by these tools. For "vibe coders" this may seem like nothing new, but this type of tool opens the aperture on what's possible for regular users to do. Are you more of a visual learner? Why not use Gemini 'Dynamic View' to create [an explanation of stock buybacks](https://gemini.google.com/share/49e5d0876ffc?ref=spyglass.org) for you? Why not use it for anything and everything? Have I mentioned that this product is still technically in "Labs"?[1](#one) Not only is it going to get better, there's hope Google will launch it with a better name. Anyway, color me impressed. Google is on a bit of a roll when it comes to product delight, which isn't something I expected – and yes, I worked there for over a decade. And that – beyond [the inherent structural, technical, and monetary advantages](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) that [Google has here](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) (aside from that, what did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?) – should have OpenAI a bit worried. There's a crocodile in the product moat. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-11-21-at-10.43.14---AM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-606.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-607.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) [Group ChatGPTOpenAI has a shot at layering social on top of their AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-608.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dudegpt-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/) --- 1 It's not working yet on mobile, for one thing. [↩](#) ### Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIA URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-big-tech-money-funnel/ Last updated: 2026-01-19T15:20:51.000Z Well, they did it. I'm happy to report that Jensen Huang [saw his shadow](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1991259269883150447?ref=spyglass.org) and so we will have at least another three months of AI euphoria. I'm "happy" about this because it means that NVIDIA's stock won't collapse when it opens today and thus risk bringing down the entire stock market which is so heavily wrapped around the Big Tech bet. [At some point, this seems inevitable](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/), but not today. Phew. The reason why is because NVIDIA continues to [bring in boatloads of money](https://www.techmeme.com/251119/p51?ref=spyglass.org#a251119p51) selling their AI wares. They even managed to defy the Law of Large Numbers this quarter and saw [that mythical](https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/#:~:text=to%20Meta%20%2826%25%29.-,NVIDIA%20itself,-is%20guiding%20towards) *uptick* in revenue growth – the first on a sequential basis in a couple of years. Even more impressively, they're projecting *another uptick* next quarter. No matter how you choose to look at this [situation](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/), it's insanely impressive growth. At the same time, it's growth that is largely fueled by a handful of players. This makes sense, NVIDIA's Big Tech peers are really the only companies that can *afford* to spend the amounts of money that makes up most of what NVIDIA is now bringing in. This is obvious, but often overlooked: much of NVIDIA's revenue is coming from Big Tech.[1](#one) _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### When Steve Jobs Fused Silicon Valley & Hollywood at Pixar URL: https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-hiring-advice-pixar/ Last updated: 2026-01-15T09:54:20.000Z It's November 22, 1996 and Steve Jobs has a cold. But [unlike Frank Sinatra 30 years earlier](https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a638/frank-sinatra-has-a-cold-gay-talese/?ref=spyglass.org), Jobs actually sits down for his interview,[1](#one) because it's the one year anniversary of the release of *Toy Story*, Pixar's first film released in collaboration with Disney. And now, to mark the 30th anniversary of the movie, [the *Steve Jobs Archive* is sharing](https://stevejobsarchive.com/stories/pixar-early-days?ref=spyglass.org) this never-before-seen footage. Jobs is just 41 years old at the time but it has been 11 – *eleven!* – years since he was pushed out of Apple. That was the same year that he started NeXT, which he's still the CEO of in this video, not yet reunited with his first company (*that would happen just weeks later*). He's also been the CEO of Pixar for just over a decade here, having bought the business from George Lucas, out of Lucasfilm – *for $10M*. It took that entire decade to make their first feature film. But it worked. [Boy did it](https://stevejobsarchive.com/stories/pixar-early-days?ref=spyglass.org): > *Toy Story* was the world’s first entirely computer-animated feature-length film. An instant hit with audiences and critics, it also transformed Pixar, which went public the week after its premiere. Buoyed by *Toy Story*’s success, Pixar’s stock price closed at nearly double its initial offering, giving it a market valuation of approximately $1.5 billion and marking the largest IPO of 1995\. The following year, *Toy Story* was nominated for three Academy Awards en route to winning a Special Achievement Oscar in March. The largest IPO of 1995 would be a seed round for an AI startup today – and in some cases, not even [that outlandish](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/) [of one](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Thinking%20Machines%20Lab%20Raising%20at%20%2450B). The entire [22-minute video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0XmBKsRJF8&ref=spyglass.org) is obviously worth the watch. There are a lot of good nuggets about both Pixar and Disney, but the one part that really stood out to me was about how he thought about building teams – in particular at Pixar, which wasn't necessarily a world, filmmaking, that he was close to. But he did know technology and knew this would have to be a sort of hybrid of Silicon Valley and Hollywood – even though he also knew previous attempts to fuse those worlds never worked. The cultures were simply too different. Or were they... When asked about how he's different than the studio heads of old, Jobs takes a moment to think about it – [a *very* Jobs-ian move](https://500ish.com/in-command-a511a9a83d98?ref=spyglass.org) in such interviews – and he starts to talk through how they're building something different with Pixar. But as he talks through it, he seems to realize that actually, it's not that different from what he's done in technology when it comes to building teams: > "This is the same in technology as it is at Pixar and on the creative side. Which is: where you’ve got incredibly talented people that are also *rare* and in-demand, if you don’t treat them right, they can go get another job in 10 minutes. So this strange thing happens, which is sort of the hierarchy of power *inverts*. And the CEO is actually at the *bottom* \[laughs\]. So I sort of feel like I work for most of these people. Because they’re the ones that are doing all the brilliant work. And it’s the same in software. It’s the same thing. The best people are very hard to come by. And so it’s managements job to support *them*. Because they’re on the front lines doing the work. So that’s kind of how we run the place." ["I play the orchestra"](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) anyone? But really, there are similarities to the answer he gave in [a Q&A all the way back in 1983](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) about attracting and retaining talent at Apple. And obviously this will resonate with anyone building teams – in particular, perhaps those building teams working on AI at the moment. "They can go get another job in 10 minutes." When pressed how he's been able to build such a culture to foster success: > “We do that by creating the right environment. A very rich environment. And removing obstacles out of their way. And putting together the right teams of people together. And getting the right projects. Keeping the quality levels very high, both in terms of people and strategy and projects. Those kinds of things.” He keeps going: > “As an example our studio has grown tremendously this year. We started off at about 175 people and we’ll be at about 300 people by the end of this year. And one of our major challenges was not to lower the quality bar one iota. And we managed to accomplish that. We put together a very strong recruiting group. We did a lot of other things that I’d rather not talk about cause they’re competitive advantages. And we were able to hire you know, 125 A+ people this year.” He played the orchestra, but he also *assembled* that orchestra. It would be interesting to know what Jobs would have thought about our current Age of AI – in particular, AI as a tool to augment creative endeavors, such as filmmaking. Hollywood is obviously [up-in-arms about it](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) right now, but there was a time when digital animation was the new technology cast aside. The same has been true of basically [all new technology](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/). While many would undoubtedly jump to say that Jobs might hate something as seemingly "soulless" as some of the creative output we get right now from AI, I'd like to [imagine](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/) he would [find a way to fuse](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) the creative talent with the technical talent to make something magical. Something like *Toy Story*.[2](#two) **One more thing:** the other stand-out bit is when Jobs is explaining how Walt Disney realized that to make filmmaking work with this new technology at the time, animation, he would actually have to invert the way movies were typically made – something which Pixar had to do as well: "You have to edit your film before you make it." 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [When Steve Jobs Called the Design World to ArmsAnd basically talked about the 2024 state of computing in 1983![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-602.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-22-at-9.15.45-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/) [Hungry. Foolish.20 years ago, Steve Jobs reluctantly gave his most famous keynote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-603.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/SteveJobs_StanfordUniv-embed-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/) [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-605.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_-12.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) --- 1 [Issey Miyake shirt and all](https://spyglass.org/wearable-iphone/). [↩](#) 2 Incidentally, we just showed our youngest part of *Toy Story* this past weekend as her very first movie. Have to gear her up for [*Toy Story 5*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGBgf8dcgyY&ref=spyglass.org) with it's antagonist... [the um, tablet!](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=%5BTechCrunch%5D-,I%20Spy...,-First%20and%20foremost) [↩](#) ### Judge Rules FTC Wasted Everyone's Time with Meta Case URL: https://spyglass.org/big-tech-antitrust-broken/ Last updated: 2026-01-15T09:53:53.000Z My god what a colossal waste of time. Here's [Cecilia Kang for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/technology/meta-antitrust-monopoly-ruling.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta did not break the law when it bought its nascent rivals Instagram and WhatsApp, a federal judge said on Tuesday, handing a major win to the $1.51 trillion company and dealing a blow to the government’s efforts to rein in the power of tech giants. > > [Judge James E. Boasberg](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/us/politics/trump-judge-boasberg-kavanaugh.html?ref=spyglass.org) of the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia said in an 89-page ruling that Meta did not create a monopoly in social networking through the acquisitions and that the market has continued to expand with rivals including TikTok and YouTube. The Federal Trade Commission had sued the company, accusing it of breaking antitrust law by acquiring Instagram and WhatsApp in a “buy or bury” strategy to cement its social networking dominance. > > The F.T.C. “continues to insist that Meta competes with the same old rivals it has for the last decade, that the company holds a monopoly among that small set and that it maintained that monopoly through anticompetitive acquisitions,” Judge Boasberg said, adding that the agency needed to prove that argument. “The court’s verdict today determines that the F.T.C. has not done so.” This case was [so obviously](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) going to fail from the get-go – and actually, [*it did fail*](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1011042126/facebook-gets-reprieve-as-court-throws-out-major-antitrust-complaints?ref=spyglass.org) *from the get-go*, but the judge allowed the FTC to rework it and refile it – that it should call into question the government's judgement and competence in going after any such cases. Even a recent case in which they "won", [against Google](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) in Search dominance, [they completely and utterly failed](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) to secure remedies that will change much of anything. And they *shouldn't have* gotten any [such remedies](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/), because that entire premise is fatally flawed in the age of modern technology – and the Age of AI, where things are [moving faster still](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/), will only make such issues more obvious. To put it simply and plainly: the government litigates antitrust in hindsight, but by the time they're able to bring these cases forward to trial, the technology at the center of these debates is already in the rearview mirror, making many of the arguments and debates moot. That was the issue with the Google remedies, and that was the problem with this Meta case. I made the longer version of this argument back in April's [**Antitrust's Hindsight Problem**](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/): > If anything, I suspect these cases – as well as the myriad other antitrust cases against Big Tech™ – will ultimately point to how ineffectual current antitrust law is for our modern age ([apologies, Lina Khan](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/)). But that will likely only be obvious in hindsight, which is interesting because that itself is a big part of the problem with these cases: that they're being litigated with hindsight... > > I mean, that's sort of true about \*every such case\*. You have to go after what is viewed to be problematic elements of the past, obviously. We don't have Minority Report-style pre-crime – [yet](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14588123/Government-secretly-creating-Minority-Report-style-murder-prediction-tool-uses-personal-data-identify-likely-killers.html?ref=spyglass.org). But these Big Tech™ antitrust cases in particular seem to look back upon the past with a different set of glasses than how things were viewed in real time. Nowhere is that more evident than in [Meta's ongoing antitrust case](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/). The FTC wants the company to sell-off Instagram and WhatsApp, without really acknowledging that the common consensus at the time – in particular with the former – was that [the deals were silly ones](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/) in which Facebook, as the company was then known, was drastically overpaying. > > Essentially, the government is going after Meta for doing deals that are only deemed savvy and anti-competitive in hindsight. It's sort of the opposite of pre-crime! It's making things crimes in the present that were not crimes in the past. Worse, had the judge ripped WhatsApp and Instagram away from Meta over a decade after those deals closed, it would have certainly had a chilling effect on basically any deal – in a time when most deals are still mainly frozen because all of these companies still have PTSD in dealing with the wrath [of Lina Khan](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/). Again, she was largely ineffectual in action, as we're seeing now with cases playing out after her tenure is over, but the government also made getting deals through such a pain in the ass that it literally wasn't worth the time. Remember when they tried to block Meta from buying a VR fitness app? [Yeah](https://fortune.com/2023/02/24/meta-ftc-virtual-reality-acquisition-within-limited-challenge-antitrust-lina-khan/?ref=spyglass.org)...[1](#one) Talk about waste of time... So instead, we saw the rise of ["hackqusitions"](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/). Deals so [convoluted](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) and so clearly set up to get around such nonsense (in many cases, less about the fear of being blocked but the fear of *how long* such deals would take to get through – basically death in the Age of AI). Speaking of death, I also might point out that if the government *had* forced Meta to spin out Instagram, [it very well could have killed the company](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/). That sounds like hyperbole, but I'm not sure that it is – by most accounts, Instagram is now the main driver of Meta's all-important ad revenue, more so than Facebook itself. Certainly, it would have ensured that Meta had no shot to [compete in AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) because they wouldn't have the money to do so. [Mark Zuckerberg's case](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) to [would-be hires](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) that Meta is [better positioned](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) for the long term in AI than, say, OpenAI, because they have the profits to pour back into the projects would have been all-but destroyed. Hard to debate ["buy, build, or bury"](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) when you *can't* buy, build, or bury...[2](#two) So does this mean [M&A meat is back on the menu](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/technology/meta-ruling-silicon-valley-start-ups.html?ref=spyglass.org), [boys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lco9Ki-5qfQ&ref=spyglass.org)? Maybe, [but probably not](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?utm%5Fsource=publication-search). Again, "hackquisitions" [work so much faster](https://medium.com/@villispeaks/the-blitzhire-acquisition-e39361ed00bb?ref=spyglass.org) than traditional M&A since they're not subject to, well, much of anything aside from an agreement between two parties. So I wouldn't be shocked to see them continue. Unless the government wakes up to that reality. Which they might... in 2045. That's around when the government might also realize that **Meta's real competition here was TikTok and YouTube**, you morons. Any child would know that. I mean that very literally! It took one simple, quick experiment to highlight this fact to the judge in this case, as Casey Newton rightly zeroes in on in [writing up the verdict today on *Platformer*](https://www.platformer.news/ftc-loses-meta-case-analysis/?ref=platformer-newsletter). The government? They were too busy on something called 'MeWe', apparently. Maybe we should look into *that*. Of course, even those undoubtedly won't be the competition by then because,[3](#three) well, see: above. It's like trying to play [Whac-A-Mole](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whac-A-Mole?ref=spyglass.org) where the moles are high on amphetamines. And your mallet weighs a thousand pounds. It's almost as if the government has spent the past 25 years congratulating themselves for [the Microsoft antitrust case that they also actually lost in the end](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/), that they're blinded to the reality of how markets *actually* work in the modern age. And that's really [going to screw them in the Age of AI](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/). With this Meta case, at least we'll always have the discovery documents and testimony here. [That was fun](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/), albeit not for Meta. The same will likely be true for Apple and Amazon with their own antitrust cases still making their way to trial. The Apple case in particular also [seems awfully weak](https://spyglass.org/good-luck-doj/), so that mixed with the fact that Apple hates to disclose anything about their business (not to mention [public embarrassment](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/)) might lead to some sort of settlement before that happens. We'll see. I'll close with my closing from [my post about antitrust back in April](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) (a longer excerpt, since it was [paywalled](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/)): > Now, that is the one part where the government may have a point and a role here. Rather than worrying about the dominance of Google Search, if they were focused on making sure Google doesn't [leverage their market position](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/google-paid-samsung-enormous-sums-for-gemini-ai-app-installs?ref=spyglass.org) to control the future of AI in an anticompetitive way, that's the correct framing here. And you're starting to hear them talk in such a way. The problem goes back to pre-crime. No one can know for sure that AI will be the key to dominating the future right now. Many believe that, [and for good reason, I think](https://spyglass.org/a-call-to-ai/). But it's trying to litigate the future. > > So yeah, that puts the government in a tricky spot between the past and the future. Still, that future should clearly be the focus versus the past. And so if there's a way to keep an eye on ensuring that a market position isn't leveraged in an anticompetitive way – \*while still allowing Google to compete\* – that's the angle. > > Admittedly, it's a tough needle to thread. > > But even without that, it feels like the market is moving in ways right now that are naturally starting to erode what all of these antitrust cases are focused on. The humorously defined social media dominance that Meta enjoys [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/the-inventors-of-facebook-present-facebook/) [matters](https://spyglass.org/a-chatgpt-social-feed-makes-fun-and-practical-sense/) [less by the day](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/). And same with Google when it comes to Search. As noted, the ad case against Google is probably the strongest, but it's perhaps also under attack as AI starts to change [the way the web actually works](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) – or, at least, is served. > > Meanwhile, the cases against Apple and Amazon are yet to begin. But there are already [clear issues with the Apple case as well](https://spyglass.org/good-luck-doj/), largely in trying to cram their market position with the iPhone into older antitrust definitions around market dominance. There as well, there's perhaps a case to be made [against the App Store](https://spyglass.org/tag/app-store/) in particular as a form of distribution, but it's going to require the DoJ lawyers to yes, think different. About the future, not about the past. Good [luck](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/). **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a partner at their venture fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Meta Points of Meta’s TrialThe FTC’s weak case collides with Meta’s miscalculations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-596.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_antitrust_case_trial_in_the_style_of_anime_male_defe_397e64f6-1df7-4876-bf8a-a1809bcabc3b_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) [Without Instagram, Meta is ScrewedAnd clearly knows it, hence the lobbying and “OG Facebook” nonsense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-595.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_person_scrolling_on_their_phone_cartoon_--ar_169_--pr_c59e6f51-ba66-44b8-aaa8-ea42a6d68d74_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/) [Quick Thoughts on DoJ v. AppleU.S. Sues Apple, Alleges Tech Giant Exploits Illegal Monopoly The US DOJ sues Apple, alleging the company blocked its competitors from accessing iPhone features, made switching to non-Apple devices more difficult, and more... Techmeme Various Headlines With the very large caveats that I’m not a lawyer – let alone an![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-597.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_court_gavel_hitting_an_apple_b7befc35-60d3-436b-8402-5e08e5830a62-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/good-luck-doj/) [Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google LostChrome stays. Payments stay. Exclusive placement goes. Some Search data goes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-600.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-2--2025--11_05_30-PM-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) [Google Lost a Search Antitrust Case. Will Gemini Take the Blame?As the remedies loom, AI is top of mind…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-599.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_handcuffed_in_court_--v_7_0e5126aa-82bd-4938-bb00-12c06e9e2a5a_3-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) [Buy, Build, or BuryThe strategy permeating the Big Tech antitrust trials will go into overdrive in the age of AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-601.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_burying_a_robot_in_the_sand_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6__830f7c1e-8ba4-4444-aee2-d4aede5ed07c_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) [Antitrust’s Hindsight ProblemThe government keeps trying to litigate problems that are already being naturally disrupted…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-598.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-22--2025--02_38_40-PM-3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) --- 1 Shoutout though for [successfully torpedoing](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-048-irish-eyes/#:~:text=Regulators%20effectively%20killed%20the%20Roomba%20after%20they%20contested%20the%20deal%20for%20Amazon%20to%20acquire%20iRobot.%20That%20turned%20a%20%241.4B%20company%20into%20a%20%24100M%20company%20%28and%20falling%20%E2%80%93%20seemingly%20on%20the%20verge%20of%20bankruptcy%20in%20just%20over%20a%20year%29.%20Innovation!%20%5BAxios%5D) the Amazon/iRobot deal – though Europe largely gets the credit for that particular one. [We almost fell victim to](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171274073/lina-khan-takes-a-figma-ipo-victory-lap?ref=spyglass.org) Big Tech owning Big Vacuum! Instead, iRobot is about to die, having had to [lay off](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-29/amazon-drops-irobot-acquisition-after-eu-veto-threat?ref=spyglass.org) nearly everyone. What a win for everyone! [↩](#) 2 Here's where [I'll again note](https://spyglass.org/ban-tiktok/#:~:text=People%20quickly%20forget%20the%20history%20here) the irony that TikTok rose to power largely on the back of Meta's ad platform. It allowed Bytedance to turn the acquired startup Musical.ly into the hit product that Vine should have been, [had Twitter not so pathetically fumbled that bag](https://500ish.com/wither-on-the-vine-d8893fddf07e?ref=spyglass.org)! And now TikTok's success effectively saved Meta here. Funny that. [↩](#) 3 It's still not entirely clear that TikTok will even [exist next year](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/), let alone in a decade or two, thanks to the continued bungling of [the "deal"](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/) to sell the service. [↩](#) ### Collect Them All (AI Edition) URL: https://spyglass.org/big-tech-ai-investments/ Last updated: 2026-07-31T08:01:28.000Z When I was a kid, I distinctly remember the phrase "collect them all" as a marketing slogan used to upsell toys and other collectables. As a completist, this always worked on me – honestly, still does. It also sure seems to work on Big Tech when it comes to AI. With [the news](https://www.techmeme.com/251118/p24?ref=spyglass.org#a251118p24) today that Microsoft and NVIDIA are now making investments in Anthropic – naturally alongside a pledge from Anthropic to spend at least $30B on Azure, because [you can't have a tit without a tat](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) – I'm honestly sort of at a loss for how to frame this. Everything is just so [tangled](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) and [interwoven](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) at this point. I mean, this is a company [which owns 27% of OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) investing in [their main rival](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/). And, [to be fair](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/), it comes after OpenAI signed deals with all of Microsoft's main rivals in the cloud. So instead, I'll just assume from now on that all bets are off because all bets are on. Still, I feel the need to list out some of this [conflicted mess](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) just for my own sanity and so I can keep referencing and checking it as I write about tangential topics. Really, it's just an expansion of [a list I made in July](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) when noting just how hedged Big Tech was now thanks to their massive investments in these AI companies. This is just the latest such deal, but obviously won't be the last. **For this list, I'm just going to keep it to the large tech companies investing in several other companies \*also\** **on this list and the larger AI companies also \*taking\* those investments. I'm also going to stick to investments directly off balance sheets — i.e. no GV investments, where I of course worked for many years, and had to always give the spiel that we weren't meant to be strategic to Google :)* **For "Other deals" I'll include companies where there's a relationship but a direct investment isn't involved (at least not known or not yet). I'll try to keep this updated...* **Amazon** **Investor in:** Anthropic • Databricks • Hugging Face • OpenAI • Scale AI **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** Cerebras **AMD** **Investor in:** Cohere • Hugging Face • Scale AI • Thinking Machine Lab • World Labs **Investment from:** OpenAI • Meta **Other deals:** **Anthropic** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** Amazon • Google • Microsoft • NVIDIA **Other deals:** Apple • Broadcom **Apple** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** Anthropic •Google • OpenAI **Broadcom** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** Anthropic •Google • Meta • OpenAI **Cisco** **Investor in:** Anthropic • Cohere • CoreWeave • Mistral • Scale AI • Thinking Machine Lab **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** Microsoft **Cohere** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** AMD • Cisco • NVIDIA • Oracle • Salesforce **Other deals:** CoreWeave **CoreWeave** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** Microsoft • NVIDIA • OpenAI **Other deals:** IBM • Meta • Mistral • Cohere **Databricks** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** Amazon •Microsoft • NVIDIA • Salesforce **Other deals:** Google **Google** **Investor in:** Anthropic • Hugging Face • Safe Superintelligence **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** Broadcom • Databricks • NVIDIA • OpenAI • Thinking Machine Lab **Hugging Face** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** Amazon • AMD • Google • IBM • Intel • NVIDIA • Salesforce **Other deals:** **Intel** **Investor in:** Hugging Face **Investment from:** NVIDIA • SoftBank • US Government **Other deals:** Amazon • Google • Microsoft **Meta** **Investor in:** AMD • Databricks •Safe Superintelligence •Scale AI **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** Black Forest Labs •Broadcom •Midjourney • NVIDIA **Microsoft** **Investor in:** Anthropic • Databricks • Mistral • OpenAI **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** NVIDIA **Mistral** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** ASML • Cisco • IBM • Microsoft • NVIDIA • Salesforce • Samsung **Other deals:** **NVIDIA** **Investor in:** Anthropic • Cohere • CoreWeave • Mistral • Nokia • OpenAI • Perplexity • Safe Superintelligence • Scale AI • Thinking Machine Lab • xAI **Investment from:** SoftBank (exited) **Other deals:** Literally everyone, [except maybe Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) **OpenAI** **Investor in:** AMD • Cerebras • CoreWeave **Investment from:** Amazon •Disney •Microsoft • NVIDIA • Oracle • SoftBank **Other deals:** Almost everyone, except Anthropic and Meta **Oracle** **Investor in:** Ampere • Cohere • OpenAI **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** NVIDIA • SoftBank **Safe Superintelligence** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** Google •Meta • NVIDIA **Other deals:** **Salesforce** **Investor in:** Anthropic • Cohere • Databricks • Hugging Face • Mistral • World Labs **Investment from:** N/A **Other deals:** **Scale AI** **Investor in:** N/A **Investment from:** Amazon • AMD • Cisco • Meta • NVIDIA **Deals with:** **SoftBank** **Investor in:** Ampere •Intel •NVIDIA (exited) •OpenAI **Investment from:** N/A **Deals with:** Oracle So there you go, while NVIDIA is obviously out there like Thanos collecting [Infinity Stones](https://marvelcinematicuniverse.fandom.com/wiki/Infinity%5FStones?ref=spyglass.org), others are more subtle in their strategic bets. Special shout-out to Cisco, which kept unexpectedly coming up as I was putting together the list. It also sure feels like with this latest news we're mere weeks away from Google and/or Amazon investing in OpenAI, [completing the ouroboros](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). [Apple](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/)? All totally cool, right? Since this isn't "zero sum" per Nadella...[1](#one) Anyway, [I'm off to play Clue](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1990800854547640712?ref=spyglass.org). Or [Pokemon](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaQkl%5FzLVuA&ref=spyglass.org). I can't believe they don't break into a rendition of "Kumbaya" to close... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-592.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) [The Stargate Data Center Layer CakeJPMorgan -> Crusoe -> Blue Owl -> Oracle -> NVIDIA -> SoftBank -> OpenAI ->…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-593.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BMTI5MTE1OTAzOV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDc2OTgyMQ@@._V1_-1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-594.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) --- 1 **Narrator:** as it turns out, it was not "totally cool" in the end, as many of these conflicted sides and companies would fight tooth and nail for market share. [↩](#) ### The Small NVIDIA Short URL: https://spyglass.org/punxsutawney-jensen/ Last updated: 2025-11-19T22:20:11.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/3E09DDDE-B86F-491E-AB82-A6CAA7173E56-2.png) Tomorrow is once again the big day. Will Jensen Huang see his shadow? NVIDIA's results will determine if utter AI exuberance gets to continue for another few months or, in a reversal with [Punxsutawney Phil's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punxsutawney%5FPhil?ref=spyglass.org) model, if AI Winter is coming. I make [this](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3kt4aurhhal2h?ref=spyglass.org) [joke](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lbfvs7iuvk2u?ref=spyglass.org) [every](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lqb2zipaus2z?ref=spyglass.org) [quarter](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/seeing-jensens-shadow?ref=spyglass.org), but it's also more of an acute risk every quarter. NVIDIA famously became *the first $5T company in history* a few weeks ago. Alongside that milestone, it surpassed accounting for 8% of the S&P 500 – the largest single-stock weight in the history of the index. Increasingly, [as goes NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-stock-whiplash/), [so goes the stock market](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/). So yeah, Jensen seeing his shadow is important. As to if he will or not, there are conflicting signs. By all accounts, AI spend – and in particular, [Big Tech CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) – [continues to surge](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/). Given just how much of that spend runs directly to and through NVIDIA, it seems almost impossible to believe they could disappoint on earnings. At the same time, the Law of Large Numbers [exists in business](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp?ref=spyglass.org) for a reason. The bigger you are, the harder it is to grow bigger still at the same rate of growth. And, of course, NVIDIA's rate has been falling [for a while](https://spyglass.org/return-of-the-rings/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A5%8A%20NVIDIA%20Crushes%20Earnings%2C%20But%20Crushes%20Them%20More%20Softly) now. In the chart below, you can plainly see the brief rise and fast fall of the crypto [boomlet](https://500ish.com/hyp3-1d7ad4924015?ref=spyglass.org) and then the utterly insane rise of AI starting in mid-2023. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/nv3.png) Again, this chart isn't surprising, it's that Law of Large Numbers at work. If anything, it's insanely impressive that NVIDIA is still seeing growth north of 50% given the scale they're at and the previous year's comps. But at some point, barring some new breakthrough – which obviously is certainly [possible](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) and [perhaps](https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/) even *plausible* in this world! – NVIDIA will fall back to more "normal" rates of quarterly revenue growth. While they're all obviously different businesses (with some overlap), the rest of Big Tech – the largest companies in the world – have yearly growth rates ranging from 8% (Apple) to Meta (26%). NVIDIA itself is guiding towards around 54% growth this quarter, while Wall Street consensus has them in the 56% to 60% range. The latter would be rather incredible because it would be the first sequential *uptick* in that growth rate since the end of 2023/early 2024, nearly two full years ago. Regardless, this is undoubtedly going to be the first $50B revenue quarter in the history of the company. And even if NVIDIA was able to pull off the accelerated growth, the real key, as always, will be what they're guiding towards *next* quarter (current Wall Street bets are in the 56% growth rate range there as well). And there are a lot of constantly-in-motion pieces there between the shipment of new chips and [the China situation](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172290055/nvidias-q?ref=spyglass.org) (if and when NVIDIA is able [to do business in China](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) again, the numbers will clearly surge and should easily beat any estimates since they're no longer accounting for *any* China sales in their models for the AI chip business, and it used to be a pretty good part of the business!). There's also new wild cards potentially in play in NVIDIA's quarterly numbers thanks to their [increasing number](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) (and increasing in size) stakes in *other* AI companies – [most notably, OpenAI itself](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/). How will they account for the swings in value there? Will their accountants determine that they need to account for some of that startup's sizable losses on their own books [as Microsoft does](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/)? Presumably *not* since the stake is still very small (\~2%) and only growing to a potentially sizable one [over time](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/). So instead they'll have to mark to market which will impact their bottom line (though presumably not yet in a major way beyond a uptick in their previous smaller holding due to the new round of financing). And what about all the *other* stakes? Also, what about [those two key customers](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172290055/nvidias-big-two-customers?ref=spyglass.org) that we *so* key to last quarter? ### The Bear Almost all of the above lays out a picture where NVIDIA's business is still booming for the foreseeable future. But that doesn't mean there aren't signs of concern – in the form of a few big bets against them (or no longer *for* them), in particular. [The biggest of these](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/), of course, is the short position perhaps the [most famous](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael%5FBurry?ref=spyglass.org) short-seller in history, **Michael Burry**, disclosed [a couple weeks ago](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-discloses-bets-against-palantir-nvidia-after-bubble-warning-160833946.html?ref=spyglass.org). To be clear, he's far more short on, and presumably bearish on, Palantir. But still, before he closed up his shop (or at least [deregistered it](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/michael-burry-s-scion-hedge-fund-deregistered-sec-filing-shows?ref=spyglass.org) with the SEC), Burry made two final short bets and one of those is on the most valuable company in the world. Burry followed up with [some hints](https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1987918650104283372?ref=spyglass.org) that he's in particular worried about the depreciation schedule that the tech companies are using for their data center assets – the biggest aspect of that is clearly the lifespan of NVIDIA chips. He suggests that this element alone is a form of financial manipulation that helped inflate the current AI bubble. At the same time, if that's his rationale – or even just a key part of his bubble thesis – why would he short Palantir so heavily versus, say, the "neocloud" companies? Their [business models](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) are heavily predicated around this depreciation element. As I wrote in ([the paid version](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) of) the newsletter [last week](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/): > I'm honestly not quite sure what to make of Michael Burry's move to shutter his fund (or at least [deregistering it](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/michael-burry-s-scion-hedge-fund-deregistered-sec-filing-shows?ref=spyglass.org) with the SEC) *right after* making [his short bet](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) on Palantir (and to a lesser extent NVIDIA). His stated reason that the value of securities is not "in sync with the markets" sort of implies he's giving up on the short game because the market is too irrational, and that this may be his swan song bet? But it's almost too obvious of one to make given where Palantir is valued relative to earnings. And ditto with NVIDIA given that it's, well, the most valuable company in the world on the back of AI. Why not short neoclouds or something else if you really believe AI is a bubble? Especially with his follow-up talk about potential nefarious business going on with the way companies are handling depreciation of these chips – this is clearly going to be an issue for *someone* at some point given how all over the board [the timelines are](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-11/ai-bubble-is-ignoring-big-short-michael-burry-chip-depreciation-fears?ref=spyglass.org): some 3 years, some 4, some 5, [CoreWeave um](https://spyglass.org/weavework/), 6! And it is interesting that these shifts have happened while NVIDIA has also [shifted](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-blackwell-gpus/) from a two year release cadence to a one year (which Satya Nadella mentioned almost in passing [on *The Dwarkesh Podcast* this week](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-boBsWcr5A&ref=spyglass.org) when talking about why [they paused](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-demand/) some data center spend earlier this year – yeah...) Anyway, Palantir is all kinds of complicated because of the government contracts if nothing else. And, of course, Burry was just wrong with his [infamous last "Sell" tweet](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/will-stocks-fall-michael-burry-says-sell-in-ominous-tweet-ahead-of-fed?ref=spyglass.org). So what's the game afoot here? I guess we'll know more [on November 25](https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1988778952299802818?ref=spyglass.org)! Thanksgiving stuffing coming early this year? But Burry also isn't the only one making a bet here. Or perhaps more accurately, there are others *pulling their bets* on NVIDIA. **SoftBank** made headlines [last week](https://www.ft.com/content/5f04e0e2-7a9c-4885-92a3-9ed5242c7d38?ref=spyglass.org) with the news that they were *selling their entire multi-billion-dollar position in NVIDIA*. They were quick to note that this was simply to get cash to be able to fulfill their commitments to fund OpenAI, but it's still a signal against NVIDIA. If SoftBank was super bullish about the company's growth prospects from here – as they [clearly are on OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) – presumably they would have figured out a way to sell other assets and/or take on [more debt](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) to make [those payments](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/). It's not stated but certainly implied that they were *okay* selling their NVIDIA position right now at these prices. And that's especially eye-opening since one of Masa Son's greatest regrets that [he has often talked about](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20The%20Mystery%20of%20Masayoshi%20Son%2C%20SoftBank%E2%80%99s%20Great%20Disrupter) in recent years was [exiting the NVIDIA stake he previously held](https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/#:~:text=SoftBank%20being%20forced,worth%20%24250B.). Of course, that's also easy and obvious to say when you had a holding you sold for $4B (in 2019) that had you held *would have been worth around $250B* these days... Still, it's an interesting signal! As is the move by **Peter Thiel's** hedge fund, Thiel Macro, to sell off their *entire* NVIDIA stake, [as *Bloomberg* reported yesterday](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/peter-thiel-s-fund-sold-off-entire-nvidia-stake-in-third-quarter?ref=spyglass.org). Granted, the stake was "only" worth about $100M, but it was still one of the core holdings of the fund alongside Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. They're holding on to those other holdings... Even if the size of the sale wasn't going to move the stock, the news, especially in concert with the other items above, builds a narrative of negativity around NVIDIA at the moment. That might be fair or not (again, Burry's bet seemed more of a throw-in and SoftBank *does* need the cash), but it's out there.[1](#one) A big bear, circling the world's most valuable company... The reality of the situation remains that while NVIDIA's numbers this quarter (and projections for next quarter) can certainly tank (or boost) the entire stock market given the sheer size and weight of the company, they're unlikely to lead to a full on bubble burst. If their numbers were ever bad enough, they could certainly kickstart such a sell-off (again, vice versa in the other direction if they're good enough), but bubbles are built on the back of irrationality. I might argue that this particular bubble, [the AI Bubble](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/), is actually more rational than previous bubbles (and certainly [the players involved](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) are [making that case](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/)). But that doesn't mean it's any less of a bubble. And bubbles always end. And that ending is even more likely to be for an irrational reason. That is, fear. If and when something triggers a sell-off, what continues to fuel it won't be NVIDIA's numbers, it will be panic that the whole game is up and that the bets are now literally off. And that will feed back into the system, [causing money to pull back](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/) which in turn will give companies less money to spend, which in turn will send less money to NVIDIA. And they'll be hit *extra* hard because of [how entangled they are](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) in the whole ecosystem at the moment. I'm not saying this is about to happen. But I'm saying it *will* happen, at some point. Let's see if we see that shadow... --- **Update November 19, 2025**: [The numbers are out](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-third-quarter-fiscal-2026?ref=spyglass.org) and NVIDIA has once again [beaten across the board](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2026.html?ref=spyglass.org) – including with that (slight) reacceleration of y/y revenue growth: 62%. Impressive. Shadow seen! 3 more months of AI! --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [“Hey, There’s a Bubble.”Yes, it’s a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-589.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-10--2025--04_47_39-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) [AI DIVINENVIDIA becomes the most valuable company in the world![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-590.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Man-in-Black-Leather-Jacket-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-divine-nvidia/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-591.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) --- 1 It's more tangential, but I might also just note the disclosure revealing [Berkshire Hathaway's large new position in Alphabet](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/14/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-reveals-new-position-in-alphabet.html?ref=spyglass.org) (now they're 10th largest holding). That's not necessarily a bet *against* NVIDIA, but you certainly might view it as a bet on Google being one of the key victors of the AI race. And if that's true, a large part of it will likely be the success of their TPU chips vs. NVIDIA's chips... [↩](#) ### LLMs vs. the World (Models) URL: https://spyglass.org/llms-vs-world-models-ai/ Last updated: 2026-01-09T17:49:16.000Z Sometimes, things come in waves. Like in 1997 when we got not one, but *two* disaster movies about volcanoes in *Dante's Peak* and yes, *Volcano*. Or the following year when we got two movies about asteroids coming to destroy the world in *Armageddon* and *Deep Impact*. Now we seem to be having such a moment around the formation of companies to build "World Models" it seems. Just last week, [I wrote about](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) the notion that Meta may soon find themselves in a battle with their (soon to be) former Chief AI Scientist if and when Yann LeCun breaks away to form a new startup focused on building World Models. I noted in passing that there were a number of other startups already working in the general space, but then came news today that another name is entering the arena, and it's a big one; an asteroid, as it were: Jeff Bezos. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple's First-Look Fall & Secondary Spring URL: https://spyglass.org/apples-first-look-fall-secondary-spring/ Last updated: 2026-01-09T17:50:04.000Z [Apple’s iPhone Overhaul Will Reduce Its Reliance on Annual Fall SpectacleApple’s iPhone is getting its biggest makeover yet — both to its features and release schedule. Here’s what’s happening to the company’s flagship product. Also: The Mac Pro is on the back burner, and Tesla is finally adding support for CarPlay. Lastly, Apple’s longtime operating chief wraps up his time at the company.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-27.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-19.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-16/apple-s-iphone-road-map-iphone-air-2-iphone-18-mac-pro-future-tesla-carplay-mi1q4l2o?cmpid=BBD111625%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251116&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) For the past several months, there's been a steady drumbeat of Apple not just shifting to [a more fluid "year round" iPhone launch strategy](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/), but word that it would start in 2026\. There's enough reporting on the matter from various sources now that it seems to be happening: > In recent years, including 2025, Apple has released four main iPhones — two Pro models and two mid-tier versions — in the fall. And it occasionally debuted a lower-cost SE or “e” model in the early part of the year. But in 2026 and beyond, the company’s smartphone release schedule will look markedly different. > > Apple plans to unveil three high-end models — the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and a new foldable — in fall 2026\. Then, roughly six months later, it will roll out the iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and potentially a refreshed iPhone Air. I expect this pattern to continue for years to come, with Apple launching between five and six new models annually. The shift to "Premium" models in the Fall, followed by "Regular" models in the Spring is in line with the earlier [Wayne Ma report for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-plans-iphone-release-schedule-shakeup-new-styles?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir). As I wrote at the time in May, this is both a massive change, but also seemingly [makes some sense](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/): > This would be a massive shift in strategy. Releasing the more premium models of the iPhone before the "regular" models would clearly shift the lineup more towards the former in terms of sales. But it would probably also help the lineup overall in allowing Apple to be constantly shipping new devices at different price points. And it would shift the hardware back to a state more in-step with software, as iOS is increasingly now released year-round, versus all-at-once in the fall. > > This is the old tried and true "if you really care about the latest and greatest, pay up" model. But it also has the side benefit of perhaps allowing Apple to stagger production a bit more, which in turn could help diversify production a bit more – as in, to other countries [outside of China for the latest models](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/peacocking-performative-chats?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7apple-still-needs-china-at-the-cutting-edge). But with the [more recent news](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-delays-release-next-iphone-air-amid-weak-sales?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) that the iPhone Air may be "delayed" to be on the Spring schedule next year as well (more on this in a minute), [I'm now wondering](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/) if this won't be too large of a change for Apple when it comes to consumer expectations. That is, every year, for nearly two decades now, everyone is well aware that new iPhones are launched in the Fall. And while many such people who buy in the Fall buy the Pro models, many others do not, opting for the more affordable "regular" variety. In fact, it hardly seems a stretch to think that those less in the know about Apple rumors and shipping schedules are more likely to go with those "regular" models. And so next year, that customer may head to the Apple Store thinking they're going to get a new iPhone 18, only to find that, sorry, only the iPhone 18 Pro and Fold models are available. And those are far more expensive than what they're used to buying. To be fair, that same customer may be okay going with last year's iPhone 17 model, but it won't be a new iPhone model. And that also raises the question if Apple still plans to drop the price of last year's models by $100 with the Fall releases or if they'll do that now as well in the Spring alongside the new "regular" models? That would be a pretty raw deal for my hypothetical customer. With all that in mind, [I've been wondering](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1989302922056732991?ref=spyglass.org) why Apple doesn't do a more balanced option along the lines of: **Fall 2026:** - iPhone 18 ("regular" – affordable) - iPhone 18 Pro ("pro" – best) **Spring 2027:** - iPhone 18e ("regular" – cheapest) - iPhone Air 2 ("pro" – thinnest) But again, all of this reporting suggests Apple is already locked in with the "Premium" Fall and "Regular" Spring cadence, at least for the coming year. Maybe they could do the above in '27/'28, or maybe my worries above won't matter. It's just such a big change to the way Apple has sold (and marketed) the iPhone to date that there's obviously real risk with such a change. Of course, [Apple has *a lot* of such changes coming to the lineup](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/). Regarding the iPhone Air in particular, back to Gurman: > [The Information reported](https://links.message.bloomberg.com/s/c/GvSjyyE-7b369i3JcTVx2KG6V-gjPjIBCfK58FczVBwPUTqf2um12bJW3SMQNoiU3tnp6Mqsh4EAl5x8hiFDLLVktT8UxuAsCtSIlFUesnBIYxfH2QbrGZMeK86lJiGoJNzmSe8DQBqPVCJaXA1JK0JQv5Fww1J1-bFsS3cZxNU%5FG8kY-ISAldgbzBEkYJdWG2Q7Pbpn1fLqqiFOq8V78u-zhBW1rC0Ls9aq5J6-LRa%5F9oBdSHrpaI7UIzPod9NlYVcSsPLhYL84f9-sUYn2Zn1i%5FapXaN3y%5FQ44vrQX6yrMNZYINFyPNsnD1FWS6e5nF%5FR8Y7O5HYIdSUutW7SXz1v8579ugpov%5Fh8CJm2CusmQwo9F84jbljyeI9Q/NlR5LxMsL23EhUSb8CGC2-AHFNpe4Vjv/14?ref=spyglass.org) that a second-generation iPhone Air had been postponed from next fall into 2027 in order to add a second rear camera (and that a vapor chamber and beefier battery are in the cards). The news outlet also cited poor sales as a cause for the schedule change. > > But from what I’ve heard, the second-generation iPhone Air hadn’t actually been earmarked for next year — at least not in recent months. So this wasn’t a delay due to the phone’s sales performance. The fact that Apple named the device the iPhone Air (rather than the iPhone 17 Air) signaled that it didn’t want to tie the product to an annual release schedule. Here's where I'll point out something sort of humorous, as [I wrote about that same *Information* report last week](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/): > It will be interesting if Apple attempts to push back on this report at all – perhaps on background to other publications? Maybe there will be some casual comment that the device was never meant to be on a yearly cadence? They could even point to the fact that it was called the 'iPhone Air' and not the 'iPhone 17 Air' – which led to immediate speculation that it wouldn't be on a yearly release cycle. Now I'm not saying that Apple officially fed this to Gurman – if anything, he's constantly on their shit list for breaking so many stories about the company – but I am saying that *someone at Apple* (his source) likely did with regard to that narrative which I correctly guessed. And that doesn't mean it's misdirection, of course. In fact, it's exactly in line with what I speculated when [the 'iPhone Air' name was officially unveiled](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/): > The worst kept secret in Cupertino ([this year](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/)) [is](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) [here](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-foldable-ibook/): iPhone Air. Notably, it's not 'iPhone 17 Air', just 'iPhone Air' which stands out in the line up with iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. And it leads to the obvious question if Apple views this as a one-off design, perhaps if it doesn't sell well? That seems unlikely, so perhaps they'd just do an 'iPhone Air 2' next year? But that would be a bit awkward and confusing if they stick with the standard naming schemes for the other iPhones – i.e. do I buy an iPhone 18, an iPhone 18 Pro, or an iPhone Air 2 next year? Then again, next year should also see the 'iPhone Fold' introduced, so perhaps we're slowly moving away from the bigger numbers, which were always untenable at some point. Were we really going to get an 'iPhone 37' in 2045? I certainly think it's fair and interesting to wonder if Apple did choose that name to give them such optionality here. Perhaps they never intended to release an Air every year, but *maybe* they would have, had it been a huge hit. Which it's clearly not out of the gate. Anyway, Gurman's sources suggest the big change with the 'iPhone Air 2' may be less about another camera lens and more about a move to the 2nm process for the chip, which [Apple is expected to shift to next year](https://9to5mac.com/2024/12/01/apple-tsmc-2nm-chips-iphone/?ref=spyglass.org) and yes, should help with battery life – something, of course, where the iPhone Air has a more acute need. He also suggests that the real driver behind doing the Air was building up some expertise and production capabilities ahead of the 'iPhone Fold' – [a notion I've written about before as well](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/). Still, it's almost impossible to imagine Apple would release a product they thought would be a dud just to gear up for another product (one which, I may add, also may have sales challenges based on the likely price points). Then again, [they did release the Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/)... **One more thing:** the most interesting element of Gurman's latest newsletter may not be any of the above (which again, was already largely known/reported), but instead that Apple may be killing off the Mac Pro. For whatever reason, Apple has had some real commitment issues when it comes to that device in the past many years. But they keep coming back to it, [promising](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/) this time will be different. Before they go back to [neglecting it](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/#two). Now the success of the Mac Studio may have been the final death blow... Many professionals – true professionals who needed the tower and all its extensibility (or as much as Apple would allow anyway) – will *not* be happy. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/mgs22_the_apple_logo_with_a_background_half_in_the_fall_and_h_51952edb-3c01-467b-b54f-19aadb5486c7_0-1.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The iPhone ErrorYet another “other” iPhone model that fails to resonate…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-577.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2025_Q3_Sep_Apple_Launch_Keynote_Phase_1_Brand_Hub_Apple_at_Sky_Air_Desktop_V1-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/) [Thin Is In Before a Foldable Is OutGaming out some ‘iPhone Air’ and ‘iPhone Fold’ options…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-579.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_iphone_that_folds_like_a_book_--ar_21_--profil_2bb22a01-1fbc-4da3-afb3-40b387e43d7f_0-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) [The 3 iPhone ProblemAn interesting dilemma coming soon to iPhone users: choice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-580.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_hand_holding_up_a_foldable_iphone_cartoon_--v_7_1cbf5c2a-ef09-42d1-9f9c-2985eae01333_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) [The Year-Round iPhoneA staggered release schedule makes sense for a few reasons…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-578.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_iphone_going_through_the_different_seasons_of_the_ye_e9b6bf65-c86a-4031-aa2d-9f91caaac2fd_3-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) ### Let Tim Cook URL: https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-retirement-apple/ Last updated: 2026-04-25T14:07:34.000Z Two weeks ago, Tim Cook turned 65\. Technically, he has two years to go until "retirement age" for his cohort of workers in the US, but I'm not sure how much Cook needs to ensure his full social security payouts at this point. Undoubtedly far more important for his would-be exit from Apple is *timing*. To that end, here is some reporting from [Tim Bradshaw, Stephen Morris, Michael Acton, and Daniel Thomas for the *FT*](https://www.ft.com/content/0d424625-f4f8-4646-9f6e-927c8cbe0e3e?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple is stepping up its succession planning efforts, as it prepares for Tim Cook to step down as chief executive as soon as next year. > > Several people familiar with discussions inside the tech group told the Financial Times that its board and senior executives have recently intensified preparations for [Cook](https://www.ft.com/stream/0a413538-d91c-4907-bbe9-c27d6411f6af?ref=spyglass.org) to hand over the reins at the $4tn company after more than 14 years. The fact that there are *four* reporters bylined on this 330-word post suggests that this is more than just idle speculation based on some loose chatter and more that this is a potential trial balloon on the idea that at least some people "in the know" are floating out there... That doesn't mean it will happen, of course. Ultimately, the decision is Cook's. While there had been some [speculation](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163328874/apple-turnover?ref=spyglass.org) over the past year that perhaps he would get nudged out the door, that talk quieted quickly when Apple's stock came roaring back to life on the back of some better-than-expected earnings (not to mention some inkling that perhaps Apple isn't in such a bad position to have largely missed the AI boat to date – [certainly from a cost perspective](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/)!). As the story notes, Cook took Apple from a $350B company at the time he took over for Steve Jobs to *a $4T company* – a full order of magnitude leap from an already insane base. Perhaps the only chief executive with a better run [is Cook's counterpart Satya Nadella](https://spyglass.org/10-years-of-satya-nadella/), who not only took Microsoft from around a $280B market cap to also hitting that $4T mark (well before Apple, though they've since slid back a bit), but also had to take over a company in need of an actual change in direction after a lost decade under Steve Ballmer. Cook, of course, just needed to execute on the vision Jobs laid out – and he was the person best suited for that task perhaps in the entire world. "Just" obviously undersells Cook. He's actually been CEO of Apple *longer* than Steve Jobs ever was (people forget that Jobs was not the CEO during the early years of Apple through when he was infamously ousted – his actual CEO tenure, including his "iCEO" time, started in 1997 and ended when he handed the reins to Cook in 2011). And much of the past several years have seen Cook execute upon strategies that went far beyond what Jobs may have envisioned, in particular [with Services](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/). Which is now [gunning for the iPhone business itself](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/) in terms of size and importance to Apple. My point is that no one (with any actual power or sway) is telling Cook to leave. I don't care how embarrassing [Apple's AI miss](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) has been. But this is also perhaps a unique moment in time for him to leave, if he wanted to. Beyond the aforementioned stock price being right back at all-time highs, with a market cap second only to NVIDIA now, Cook seems on the cusp of delivering a "blockbuster" holiday quarter, which will likely be reflected when Apple reports their next quarterly earnings in late January. Apple previewed as much in their last earnings report, which is why the stock is back to where it is after under-performing the rest of Big Tech for the past couple of years (yes, in part thanks to the AI issues but also [the tariff/China issues](https://spyglass.org/apples-no-good-very-bad-week/)). When thinking about legacy, as anyone in Cook's position after his long tenure [now must](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/), certainly there's a desire to go out "on top". And there may be no better time than after that next earnings release. > The company is unlikely to name a new CEO before its next earnings report in late January, which covers the critical holiday period. > > An announcement early in the year would give its new leadership team time to settle in ahead of its big annual keynote events, its developer conference in June and its iPhone launch in September, the people said. Again, the *FT* reports that "although preparations have intensified, the timing of any announcement could change". And this could just be a matter of teeing it up for Cook if he decides he wants to make the move after thinking about it, say, over the holidays. And the key part of that will obviously be having the succession plan in place. Which it sure seems to be: > John Ternus, Apple’s senior vice-president of hardware engineering, is widely seen as Cook’s most likely successor, although no final decisions have been made, these people said. This, of course, backs up the reporting [Mark Gurman put out there for *Bloomberg* last year](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/apple-s-next-ceo-list-of-aapl-insiders-who-could-succeed-tim-cook?ref=spyglass.org) about [Ternus likely being "the chosen one"](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/). This was somewhat of a surprise at the time because Jeff Williams held the all-important COO title that Cook held before his elevation. But Williams is only slightly younger than Cook and sure enough, earlier this year, [Williams announced his own retirement](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) – something which just formally took place last week. That sure seemed to set the stage for the 15-years-younger-than-Cook Ternus... And Ternus also seems well placed given the fact that while he's younger than most of Apple's other senior leaders, his tenure at the company is still impressive: he'll mark 24 years at the company next May – nearly half his life has been spent at Apple. And that's something which [clearly matters to Apple](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/). And the fact that he's been overseeing hardware for many years also makes him seem particularly well-suited to take over *now*. Again, with the AI work in flux, it feels like Apple's answer has been to double-down on their strengths, the biggest of which is something else no other company can seemingly match: [hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). Ternus *feels* like the right guy for the right time in Apple's history. At the same time, it's also a company [clearly in need](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) of [some changes](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) as has been [showcased](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) so [overtly](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) in public by the AI situation. The cultural changes seemingly [needed](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) to be able to [execute](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) in the Age of AI are the main reason I might argue for Apple to do [some major M&A](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) – i.e. it would be less about the tech than the talent and the [shift in mindset](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/). But perhaps a "simple" change at the top of Apple will be enough to change things. That plus the fact that many of those other top lieutenants will undoubtedly be retiring soon alongside Cook and Williams. Might one of Ternus' first moves be to [significantly change the App Store rules](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/)? Wishful thinking? Probably. But it could be an Microsoft Office-for-iPad-like moment, which Nadella quickly executed to signal change, if nothing else? > Cook has voiced his preference for an internal candidate to be chosen as his replacement, saying the company has “very detailed succession plans”. > > “I love it there and I can’t envision my life without being there so I’ll be there a while,” he told singer Dua Lipa on her podcast in November 2023. Aside from going to Dua Lipa for my Apple news, I also often turn to [John Gruber, who notes that](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/11/15/ft-apple-tim-cook-succession?ref=spyglass.org) while Cook may retire from the CEO role, that doesn't mean he has to *fully leave* the company ([a notion I've put out there before as well](https://spyglass.org/laboring-day/?ref=spyglass-newsletter#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%20Atop%20Apple%2C%20No%20One%20Ever%20Really%20Leaves))[1](#one): > I would also bet that Cook moves into the role of executive chairman, and will still play a significant, if not leading, role for the company when it comes to domestic and [international](https://daringfireball.net/2024/01/vestager%5Fcook?ref=spyglass.org) [politics](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/05/27/cook-trump-middle-east?ref=spyglass.org). [Especially](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/tim-cook-ceo-trump-relationship-ad106f36?st=KRSbZa&reflink=desktopwebshare%5Fpermalink&ref=spyglass.org) with [regard](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/01/04/consider-cook-as-a-tragic-figure?ref=spyglass.org) to [Trump](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/09/10/trump-hosts-dinner-humiliating-tech-ceos?ref=spyglass.org). I would just note that the only (loose) retirement policy Apple has in place is for board directors, who typically step down by the time they're 75\. That would give Cook another solid decade of being involved, if he chooses. And the company would probably be wise to choose that for at least the next several years for the Trump and China angles, if nothing else, as Gruber notes. Wouldn't it be nice to usher in Ternus and not have him have to worry about [delivering golden trinkets](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) to Trump on day one? Ideally, he wouldn't have to deal with [any of that nonsense](https://spyglass.org/trump-throws-apple-under-the-tariff-bus/), [Cook could still do it](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/). That feels like a very Cook maneuver too – being willing to take that bullet for Apple, as it were. So yeah, it's pretty clear that Cook is going to retire soon and it's just a question of *when*. And while he might have liked to wait to get one more product – in particular, [the Smart Glasses](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/), which other reports had him *very* focused on – out the door, he also has to be considering the macro picture. Not only do things look nice and stable for Apple now, but there are potentially storm clouds on the horizon [with AI bubbles](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) and what not. If the stock market were to tank – for any reason, independent of Apple – Cook might have a harder time leaving. I mean, just look at what happened to Disney when Bob Iger left, handing over the reins [to Bob Chapek](https://500ish.com/a-cook-in-disneys-kitchen-978504b9a5b9?ref=spyglass.org) just as COVID was hitting...[2](#two) Things got so bad that Iger had to come back! And now he's trying to [get it right this time](https://spyglass.org/disney-cruises-to-damaro/), leaving in early 2026... **One more thing:** for what it's worth, the aforementioned [Gurman noted](https://x.com/markgurman/status/1989764365705515220?ref=spyglass.org) that "I don’t get the sense anything is imminent" around Cook retiring. But for as good as Gurman's sources are within Apple, this one is very likely a need-to-know situation. And anyone with such info might be willing to let it be known in a targeted way so there's not a market shock when it happens... --- **Update April 21, 2026**: And sure enough, Tim Cook has announced he's retiring as CEO of Apple... [A Cook’s TourTim Cook steps down as CEO of Apple as John Ternus steps up…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-21--2026--10_29_52-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Tim Cook’s ClockA great interview quietly reveals quite a bit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-573.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_tim_cook_looking_at_his_apple_watch_painting_--ar_43_--_1f3ca9a4-e2a8-4c20-ae19-234a3104b0a8_1-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) [Apple is Ripe...for change, as their COO steps down. Can they avoid rot?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-574.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_hanging_from_a_branch_--v_7_396e200c-cd62-4a94-b174-c3bdcb194ab2_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) [As the Apple Ternus...Might John Ternus succeed Tim Cook at Apple?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-576.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/John-Ternus-PatentlyApple-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) --- 1 I would also note that another company where the CEO stepped into the executive chair role is Nike, where Cook is on the board. Mark Parker executed that move before John Donahoe – someone Cook helped directly recruit – stepped in ([though that didn't turn out so well](https://spyglass.org/just-do-it/))... [↩](#) 2 Iger also [stepped off the board of Apple](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/13/bob-iger-resigns-from-apple-board.html?ref=spyglass.org) a year before leaving his Disney post the first time... [↩](#) ### Group ChatGPT URL: https://spyglass.org/group-chatgpt-social/ Last updated: 2026-01-06T12:39:19.000Z Launching a new chat app is just about the hardest thing you can do in tech. And with each passing year, as the incumbents are more entrenched with more users, it gets harder. In 2025, everyone already has their chat app of choice and it's not just getting one user to switch, it's getting that user and *all their friends/connections* they wish to chat with to switch. Even if they're able to pull over a few people, it will fragment the connections, now requiring people to use multiple apps. These days, many of us may use two or three chat apps (or more!) for different purposes (work, friends, etc) but even those are pretty well established at this point. Of course, it's *slightly* easier if you're not doing it from scratch. Which is why apps [like Spotify](https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/26/spotify-launches-a-messages-feature-in-a-bid-to-become-more-social/?ref=spyglass.org) and [now Xitter keep trying to do it](https://www.engadget.com/social-media/x-is-finally-rolling-out-chat-its-dm-replacement-with-encryption-and-video-calling-233032571.html?ref=spyglass.org). The thought is if hundreds of millions of people are already using your app, why not let them do the most social thing of all (at least online): chat? This has worked to some extent with Instagram, but that was also in part because Meta already had other chat apps and could leverage those graphs/connections. But for the most part, layering in chat to an app doesn't really work because it's not really the core function of the app and it feels tacked-on at best. [Now OpenAI is going to try](https://openai.com/index/group-chats-in-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org) their hand at this: > Today, we’re beginning to pilot a new experience in a few regions that makes it easy for people to collaborate with each other—and with ChatGPT—in the same conversation. With group chats, you can bring friends, family, or coworkers into a shared space to plan, make decisions, or work through ideas together. > > Whether you’re organizing a group dinner or drafting an outline with coworkers, ChatGPT can help. Group chats are separate from your private conversations, and your personal ChatGPT memory is never shared with anyone in the chat. This is a pretty limited test, only available in Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan.[1](#one) But I suspect it will expand fairly quickly, because I suspect it might actually work – at least to some extent. The reason why here should also be obvious: ChatGPT is already a chat app. Sure, it's not a chat app in the traditional sense in that to date you haven't been chatting with *people*, but you have been chatting with *AI*. And it's [by far the most popular](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) chat-with-AI service. It's a chat app quickly approaching a billion users. In that sense, it's almost strange that you can *only* chat with AI and not the other *people* you know that are clearly using it. So that's what OpenAI is now enabling. Granted, this being-social-with-humans element is not the normal behavior of the service to date, so the already-large user base could reject it. But just as likely is that it makes ChatGPT more sticky because you can now not only chat with AI, but with your friends too, and rope in that AI as needed/wanted. The main problem may be getting the UI/UX correct for this shift. You can see a world in which trying to make ChatGPT more traditionally social muddles the message, quite literally. And there's already an increasing amount of stuff going on in ChatGPT as OpenAI keeps adding in more functionality. But if they can keep it relatively simple, I could see this working. And actually, group messaging is the exact functionality that [I felt was missing](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B9%20OpenAI%20Blindsided%20by%20Sora%20Copyright%20Drama) from OpenAI's *other* app, Sora, from the get-go. The TikTok-like social feed has been fun, but once the novelty wears off, it's going to be more fleeting for many people. [The real key to Sora](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) are the "cameos" – inserting people into the videos. This has worked at viral scale [for famous people](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/), but that's [obviously problematic](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) for OpenAI as well. "Regular" people are far less problematic (assuming they opt-in to letting cameos be created of course!) but it's always going to be weird for many people to post those to an open-ended feed that anyone can follow. Having the ability to make and send these types of Soras to smaller groups makes a lot of sense. And clearly OpenAI knows this as it's one of the first major tweaks they've made to the app. Rather than default to posting to everyone, the share flow now includes picking people/groups to send your Soras to. That's good, and it could be even better as a feature of, say, a social layer of ChatGPT itself with it's nearly one billion users. Of course, the biggest push back on all of this will be the privacy/safety angle. ([OpenAI's help page on the matter](https://help.openai.com/en/articles/12703475-group-chats-in-chatgpt?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) is actually quite informative and straightforward – notably, they can use the contents of the chat for training unless one person in the group has opted out.) And that's why OpenAI is leaning heavily on the messaging around that aspect, as they reiterate in their post: > **Group chats are separate from your private conversations.** Your personal ChatGPT memory is not used in group chats, and ChatGPT does not create new memories from these conversations. We’re exploring offering more granular controls in the future so you can choose if and how ChatGPT uses memory with group chats. > > **You’re in control.** You have to accept an invitation to join a group chat. Everyone can see who’s in the chat or leave at any time. Group members can remove other participants with the exception of the group creator, who can only be removed by leaving themselves. > > **Additional safeguards for younger users.** If someone under 18 uses group chats, ChatGPT automatically reduces exposure to sensitive content for everyone in the chat. Parents or guardians can turn group chats off entirely through [parental controls⁠(opens in a new window)](https://help.openai.com/en/articles/12315553-parental-controls-on-chatgpt-faq?ref=spyglass.org). Of course, users have long been fine entrusting Meta with such data (though WhatsApp is different as it is encrypted) so the question is if the AI angle in particular changes that equation in some way. [Meta has already inserted AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-everywhere/) into their own chat apps from Messenger on down too, it's just not the main/leading functionality of those apps. In that light, this is interesting/risky: > We’ve also taught ChatGPT new social behaviors for group chats. It follows the flow of the conversation and decides when to respond and when to stay quiet based on the context of the group conversation. You can always mention “ChatGPT” in a message when you want it to respond. We’ve also given ChatGPT the ability to react to messages with emojis, and reference profile photos—so it can, for example, use group members’ photos when asked to create fun personalized images within that group conversation. One imagines that some people won't like the idea of AI just "lurking" in their chats. But you can also see a world in which that's actually fun and potentially useful. Especially since this started as an AI chat app! Still, this will be pretty polarizing, I imagine. I also imagine that OpenAI would [love](https://spyglass.org/a-chatgpt-social-feed-makes-fun-and-practical-sense/) continuing to show up Meta on their own turf: [social](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/). Just as Mark Zuckerberg is [betting his entire company](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) on trying to [compete in AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/). **One more thing:** while I don't hit on it above, there are clearly some potentially interesting *business* use cases with ChatGPT groups as well. Ones that could be far more lucrative for the company, which [seems important](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) going forward... --- 1 A VPN is your friend if you wish to try it out – but yes, your connections, unless they're in one of those countries, will have to VPN-in as well. [↩](#) ### Signal: Bubble Watch 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-bubble-watch/ Last updated: 2025-11-15T11:32:57.000Z Happy Friday. There is *a lot* below after writing a lot this week and it has been a while [since I sent out a Signal](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/). Enjoy. ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Think... 💸 [**Apple's Mini Cut From Mini Apps**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/13/apple-halves-commissions-for-mini-app-makers/?ref=spyglass.org) – While the concept of "mini apps" aren't new from a classification standpoint for Apple (they've been called out in the guidelines since 2017), this is the first time they get their own monetization distinction: a 15% cut. Obviously, this comes from [Apple agreeing with Tencent](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/apple-and-tencent-agree-to-15-fee-on-wechat-mini-game-purchases?ref=spyglass.org) for WeChat mini games, but rather than keep it a China-only rule, they're opening it up – perhaps to continue to alleviate the pressure on the overall App Store cut. What was once a simple (but silly) 70/30 cut is now fractured into about a hundred different pieces and rules. Can we just shift to 80/20 (and 90/10 for small devs)? That's effectively what [Google has agreed to do](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/) (thanks to Epic). Though, to be fair, [they were dealt](https://spyglass.org/google-epic-fail/) even more of [a losing hand](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Supreme%20Court%20Declines%20Google%27s%20Emergency%20Halt) thanks to [being "open"](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/). Apple, it seems, will [continue to fight](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) the losing battle. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/13/apple-halves-commissions-for-mini-app-makers/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🍿** [**The Battle for Warner Bros (and HBO)**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-comcast-netflix-prepare-bids-for-warner-as-deadline-approaches-999cbec3?ref=spyglass.org) **–** With the initial bids due next week, it's shaping up to be Paramount vs. Comcast vs. Netflix. Paramount continues to have [the first-mover advantage](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) and the fact that they're willing [to buy](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) the [*entire*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-27/paramount-sets-steps-to-get-warner-deal-past-opponents-agencies?ref=spyglass.org) company whereas Comcast and Netflix are said to just want the studio and streamer. But WBD also keeps rejecting their offers, clearly wanting to entice a bidding war – or perhaps prolong what seems inevitable so that David Zaslav can execute his [splitting of the company in two](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/warner-bros-discovery-splits-in-two?ref=spyglass.org) and get some sort of bonus and perhaps better price. And if he can last that long, [might Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) [be lurking](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/)? Regardless, David Ellison is already making the case that Paramount Skydance is the only company that will be able to get this past the regulatory goalie. He knows a guy or two... But Comcast is also [clearly](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/oct/28/msnbc-comcast-trump-ballroom?ref=spyglass.org) polishing their [golden trinkets](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) to present... Wild that Netflix is this far along, in the data room and in the running, but hard to see them doing this deal. (Though certainly they can [make a better case](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/) than [the rest of Big Tech](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) – to Wall Street, at least.) **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-comcast-netflix-prepare-bids-for-warner-as-deadline-approaches-999cbec3?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🚗** [**Telsa + Apple CarPlay**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/tesla-is-working-to-add-apple-carplay-in-bid-to-boost-vehicle-sales?ref=spyglass.org) – There's seemingly a few things going on here. First and foremost, Tesla clearly needs a way to spur sales and they clearly think CarPlay could help. And that's wild considering how many of the automakers are going the other way, and [pulling support](https://www.theverge.com/transportation/804562/gm-apple-carplay-android-auto-gas-cars-mary-barra?ref=spyglass.org) for such systems because they're worried about handing the keys to Apple or Google (or just want to build their own software, which they always all suck at). At the same time, tensions may be starting to thaw between Elon and Apple – [App Store silliness](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171977150/elon-v-apple-and-openai?ref=spyglass.org) [aside](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/openai-apple-lose-bid-to-toss-musk-xai-suit-over-competition?ref=spyglass.org) – we're now [a long way from](https://spyglass.org/the-apple-car-that-wasnt/) Apple's own ([failed](https://spyglass.org/rip-apple-car/)) car project and after [some turbulence around Starlink](https://spyglass.org/apple-starlink-spacex/) \+ iPhones, they [might be](https://stratechery.com/2025/spacex-buys-spectrum-spectrum-specifics-spacexs-big-bet/?ref=spyglass.org) on the verge of working together there too. Personally, I wouldn't buy a car without CarPlay – it's just infinitely more convenient to use (assuming you're an iPhone user) than any shitty system a car manufacturer can draw up – even Tesla. [You hear that, Rivian](https://spyglass.org/rivian-looks-nicer-than-tesla/)? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/tesla-is-working-to-add-apple-carplay-in-bid-to-boost-vehicle-sales?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Wrote... [Why Microsoft Pushed OpenAI AsideSatya Nadella’s vision for the future of computing makes it pretty clear that they feel the need to fully control their own AI destiny![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-561.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-13--2025--08_45_02-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/) ****For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒** [The Wearable iPhoneThe ‘iPhone Pocket’ continues a trend…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-559.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-iPhone-Pocket-and-ISSEY-MIYAKE-short-strap-colors_big.jpg.large_2x-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wearable-iphone/) [Meta AI vs. the World (Models)The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-560.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-12--2025--06_54_53-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/) ****For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒** [The iPhone ErrorYet another “other” iPhone model that fails to resonate…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-558.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2025_Q3_Sep_Apple_Launch_Keynote_Phase_1_Brand_Hub_Apple_at_Sky_Air_Desktop_V1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/) [Two AI Roads Diverged...Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-557.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-11--2025--05_02_17-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/) ****For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒** --- ### I Quote... > "One AI bubble has already burst — the bubble in saying there’s a bubble." – The opening of a **Deutsche Bank** [report](https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000604456&ref=spyglass.org) from September, noting that Google Searches for the term "AI Bubble" had collapsed. [Well, so much for that!](https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/) Queries for the term [exploded higher than ever in October](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%22AI%20Bubble%22&hl=en&ref=spyglass.org) and that is continuing into November. And now we have that very same bank [exploring ways](https://www.ft.com/content/c0428010-1373-463e-91e6-8fe7d64a26df?ref=spyglass.org) to hedge their data center exposure! Life comes at you fast – especially when AI is involved. --- ### I Note... - **SoftBank** being forced to sell their entire stake in **NVIDIA** to help pay for [their promises to OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) is really pretty wild. Especially given [how much we know](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20The%20Mystery%20of%20Masayoshi%20Son%2C%20SoftBank%E2%80%99s%20Great%20Disrupter) Masa Son regrets [selling](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jensen-huang-reveals-softbank-masayoshi-100405941.html?ref=spyglass.org&guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zcHlnbGFzcy5vcmcvZGlzcGF0Y2gtMDEyLw&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAIxM7-Ew6ooO2HoNkEtEEckD1a%5FZBL45JO3fhiEOB1miAyaLLR2FP-VKEmyl2rlZTUs9tuk1RlrU7pfKTK4jOOC0bpbW6nJSeL8jXWjQE9HMPm43j04yNDfTOuEA0iVGW1v7EUtgbFTXTGQLObSEYsvoFuw-PHqcQ5SwpcSFkQWy) his huge NVIDIA stake the last time: a 5% stake he sold in 2019 for $4B – which at NVIDIA's $5T recent heights would have been worth $250B. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/5f04e0e2-7a9c-4885-92a3-9ed5242c7d38?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - How do we get a story about **Matthew McConaughey** lending his voice to **ElevenLabs** for AI and not get an ["Alright, Alright, Alright"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIUbQoLvLkY&ref=spyglass.org) reference? Come on, people. Impressive [Michael Caine video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k29nmjIx4Gg&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org) though. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2025/digital/news/matthew-mcconaughey-michael-caine-ai-voice-elevenlabs-1236574041/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Amazon** has [renamed](https://leo.amazon.com/gb/en?ref=spyglass.org) '**Project Kuiper**' to '**Leo**' – for "Low Earth Orbit" – an *infinitely* better name. Now they just need infinitely more satellites in that orbit to actually compete with Starlink. **\[**[**GeekWire**](https://www.geekwire.com/2025/project-kuiper-no-more-amazon-renames-satellite-internet-venture-leo-on-path-to-commercial-service/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Firefox** is wading into the **AI Browser** [Wars](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/) – but just with a toe, or a tab, as it were. While they've had AI summaries on [mobile](https://blog.mozilla.org/en/firefox/shake-to-summarize/?ref=spyglass.org), this desktop phase will apparently let you pick the model you want to use to hopefuly be [more Switzerland-like](https://spyglass.org/ai-browsers-breaking-web/). **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/820196/mozilla-firefox-ai-window-browser?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I'm glad ***Alien: Earth*** has been renewed for **season 2** even though the first season was [pretty hit-or-miss](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=Do%20xenomorphs%20make%20great%20pets%3F%20Alien%3A%20Earth%20seems%20trying%20to%20answer%20this%20question%20that%20I%E2%80%99m%20not%20sure%20anyone%20is%20asking...%20%5BTHR%5D). I look forward to more 90s rock cliffhangers/headbangers. \[[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/alien-earth-renewed-season-2-noah-hawley-fx-deal-1236424398/?ref=spyglass.org)\] --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Thinking Machines at $50B** ****• Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV** ****• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet** ****• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Why Microsoft Pushed OpenAI Aside URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-vs-openai/ Last updated: 2026-01-02T19:04:12.000Z Without question, one of the most fascinating dynamics of the past few years has been [the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). Drama aside, at the highest level, one of the largest companies in the world made one of the best investments in history. I mean that both monetarily (at least on paper) but also in terms of how it positioned Microsoft perfectly as one of the key players in what many believe to be the most important industry going forward – and perhaps ever: AI. While much has been made about Satya Nadella being spooked by "The Blip" – the weekend where Sam Altman temporarily fell victim to a coup at OpenAI – and that clearly kicked off [a series of events](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) which saw Microsoft [start to hedge their bet](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-hedge-against-openai/), it felt like that could have and perhaps should have been water under the bridge given OpenAI's continued growth and increasing prominence as [the most important company in AI](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/). At the highest level, that's why it has always [felt so wild to me](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) that Microsoft would not only be okay with creating more distance between the two companies, but was [clearly *pushing* for it](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-zoom-zoom-zooms-to-the-defensive-about-ai/). This was a relationship that anyone in tech would kill for – or certainly pay any amount of money for, [and they were](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)! But instead of bear-hugging OpenAI and keeping everyone else at arm's length, Microsoft was basically saying "nah, we're good." Satya was famously [good for his $80B](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/), but not a penny more. Sorry Sam. How about [an intro to Masa Son](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/)? Obviously, there is a strategy here beyond simply fear or spite. But what was Microsoft thinking? As it turns out, all you had to do was ask Satya. To be clear, in [his appearance on *The Dwarkesh Podcast*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-boBsWcr5A&ref=spyglass.org), Nadella doesn't exactly come out and give a direct answer to the above. But thanks to some good lines of questioning from Dwarkesh Patel and his co-host for the episode, Dylan Patel [of *SemiAnalysis*](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/microsofts-ai-strategy-deconstructed?ref=spyglass.org), it sure feels like we can triangulate enough data points to arrive at some answers... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta AI vs. the World (Models) URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-world-models-lecun-agi/ Last updated: 2026-01-02T19:03:59.000Z The most surprising element of Yann LeCun's [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/c586eb77-a16e-4363-ab0b-e877898b70de?ref=spyglass.org) exit from Meta is that [he stayed as long as he did](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1988220626499461276?ref=spyglass.org). Once Mark Zuckerberg swiftly executed [his $14.3B hard reset](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) of the company's AI efforts in June with the "[hackquistion](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/)" of Scale.ai, the writing was on the wall – or at least, all over Meta's internal Workplace Chat, I suppose. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The Wearable iPhone URL: https://spyglass.org/wearable-iphone/ Last updated: 2025-12-28T22:15:42.000Z [Apple and Issey Miyake Unite for the iPhone Pocket—“It’s a Moment of Connecting the Dots”Introducing the iPhone Pocket, a landmark collaboration between Apple and Issey Miyake that could just be the season’s must-have accessory.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-37.ico)VogueAshley Ogawa Clarke![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Nguyen_005NEW.jpg)](https://www.vogue.com/article/apple-and-issey-miyake-unite-for-the-iphone-pocket-its-a-moment-of-connecting-the-dots?ref=spyglass.org) My first instinct – I think everyone's first instinct – was to poke fun at this project. Part of it is that many of us are waiting, hoping, for a One More Thing™ announcement from Apple before the holidays in the form of new Apple TVs, HomePods, and AirTags – all three with nice last-minute-gift potential. Instead, [we got a sock](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/11/introducing-iphone-pocket-a-beautiful-way-to-wear-and-carry-iphone/?ref=spyglass.org). An insanely expensive sock. A piece of fabric more expensive than any of the three aforementioned consumer hardware products. This is hardly a stocking stuffer, it's more like the stocking you would use if your stuffers were diamonds. In that context, this almost seems like a lump of coal. But actually... Having thought about it a bit more – yes, after retweeting [a Borat banana hammock dunk](https://x.com/RasmusNielsen/status/1988250478027653333?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) – I think I'll take the other side here. No, the Issey Miyake-designed 'iPhone Pocket' is not a product for most people, but something like it increasingly seems to be. Further, this is actually a very Apple-like collaboration. How quickly we forget the history here. > It’s no secret that one of Steve Jobs’s favorite fashion designers was [Issey Miyake](https://www.vogue.com/fashion-shows/designer/issey-miyake?ref=spyglass.org). The former Apple CEO adopted the Japanese designer’s minimal black turtlenecks as part of the iconic uniform he wore on Keynote stages around the world, though apart from a mutual respect—and the facts that Miyake once appeared in Apple’s *Think Different* campaign and almost designed an Apple uniform—the duo never officially collaborated. > > Until now. This month, Apple releases a collaboration with Issey Miyake, marking the [tech brand](https://www.vogue.com/article/24-hours-in-apple-park-apple-launch-event?ref=spyglass.org)’s first union with a fashion house since the [Apple Watch Hermès](https://www.vogue.com/article/hermes-apple-watch-jony-ive-pierre-alexis-dumas?ref=spyglass.org) in 2015\. The product? A curious-looking rectangle of 3D-knitted fabric known as the iPhone Pocket. Robust and cushioned, with stretchy pleats true to Issey Miyake’s iconic Pleats Please design, the accessory is designed to snugly hold any model of iPhone (as well as small essentials like AirPods or a chapstick). That's right, if you know the iconic Steve Jobs' turtleneck, you know Miyake. And if you know that, you undoubtedly do know that he really did almost design uniforms for Apple – this was all in Walter Isaacson's *Steve Jobs* biography, as relayed [by Wynne Davis for *NPR*](https://www.npr.org/2022/08/10/1116769827/the-story-of-steve-jobs-and-issey-miyakes-friendship-and-a-nixed-apple-uniform?ref=spyglass.org) back in 2022 following the news of [Miyake's passing](https://www.npr.org/2022/08/09/1116459759/famed-japanese-designer-issey-miyake-dies-at-84?ref=spyglass.org): > Isaacson details how the idea for an Apple uniform came from a trip to Japan in the 1980s when Jobs visited Sony and saw that all workers in the factories were wearing matching uniforms. Jobs asked Akio Morita, then the chairman of Sony, about it. > > "He looked very ashamed and told me that after the war, no one had any clothes, and companies like Sony had to give their workers something to wear each day," Jobs said. > > Miyake had worked with Sony to create a taupe nylon jacket that easily converted into a vest courtesy of removable sleeves. Isaacson wrote that the uniforms became part of Sony's "signature style" and "it became a way of bonding workers to the company." > > "I decided that I wanted that type of bonding for Apple," Jobs said. "So I called Issey and asked him to design a vest for Apple. I came back with some samples and told everyone it would be great if we would all wear these vests. Oh man, did I get booed off the stage. Everybody hated the idea." Yeah, that clearly never happened. But it *did* lead to Jobs' friendship with Miyake and that other, more informal uniform: > "So I asked Issey to make me some of his black turtlenecks that I liked, and he made me like a hundred of them," Jobs said, adding that it was enough to last him the rest of his life. Sadly, that turned out to be true as Jobs passed away a decade before Miyake did.[1](#one) Anyway, in that light, this collaboration is a nice homage to both men. And this wasn't just Apple fully outsourcing the project to the Miyake team, Apple's team collaborated on the project as well – the industrial design team, no less. > "It was like a jazz session. Everyone brainstormed and asked, ‘how can we develop it further?’, ‘should we take it in this direction or that?" This seems like *exactly* the type of project Jony Ive would have relished taking up, were he not [busy making buttons](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-lovefrom-moncler/) – a very real and [very cool LoveFrom project](https://spyglass.org/duo-button-design-lovefrom/) with Moncler – and, [you know](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/), potentially [an anti-iPhone device](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/), which will [never not be awkward](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/). And yes, this certainly calls back to Apple's iPod Socks – a product Jobs himself announced two decades ago and many thought was a joke. It was not, and actually these are now remembered [at least somewhat fondly](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/11/11/ipod-socks-iphone-pocket?ref=spyglass.org). Perhaps it's nostalgia or perhaps it was the fact that you got a six pack – in an Apple rainbow of colors – for $29\. Which, [as Craig Grannell points out for *Stuff*](https://www.stuff.tv/news/apple-just-reinvented-ipod-socks-as-an-iphone-fashion-statement-and-you-wont-believe-the-price/?ref=spyglass.org), is more like $50 in today's money, but still *a far cry* from $150, let alone $230 – the two price points for a *single* iPhone Pocket. Times change. Socks change. To that end, I think the most important/interesting aspect of this product is actually the continuing trend of turning the iPhone into a wearable. What started with arm bands for runners back in the day is now more of a daily wearable strap for many people, it seems. Hence, Apple releasing their own [iPhone Crossbody Strap](https://www.apple.com/uk/shop/product/mggg4zm/a/crossbody-strap-blue?ref=spyglass.org) for the first time this year. The longer version of the iPhone Pocket is similar to that – though not as practical, as you still have to take the iPhone out of the Pocket to use it. Still, people are clearly clamoring to wear their iPhones more, rather than put them in a pocket or purse. It's another accessory and a way to splash some color upon your outfit. To make your own uniform, in a way. I'll admit that [while I bought](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Apple%27s%20iPhone%20Strap) a Crossbody Strap to try out, [I'm still not sold.](https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/) I find it awkward to use, having to constantly shift the strap depending on if you're letting it fall to your side or if you're trying to actually use it while walking.[2](#two) I'm sure I'm simply wearing it wrong.[3](#three) And, not to sound overtly sexist, but something about such an accessory still seems more oriented towards women who perhaps prefer not to carry an increasingly massive smartphone in their pants pockets – if they even have them – or in a smaller purse, where it may not fit. Perhaps that morphs over time – certainly if these devices [keep growing in size!](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) – perhaps not. But this is at least somewhat of a bet in the trend towards *wearing* *your phone* versus pocketing it. While this is where I [normally](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) [bring up](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=It%27s%20not%20a%20new%20iPhone%20magnetic%20purse%20strap%2C%20it%27s%20a%20European%20Carry%2DAll!%20%28In%20all%20seriousness%2C%20will%20this%20help%20with%20phone%20thefts%3F%29%20%5BMacRumors%5D) the *Seinfeld* gag about the ["European Carry-All"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-cOc6s9h8&ref=spyglass.org), my mind is actually going towards another bit from the show: [George Costanza's wallet](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoPf98i8A0g&ref=spyglass.org). I'm old enough to remember when men would largely put their wallets in their back pants pocket – I even did that as a kid, following my father's lead. Boy how times change – these days, in particular if you live/visit a big city, it would seem *insane* to put your wallet in such a place. The perfect target for pickpockets. Well that and the overall trend to move more of what was in your wallet into your smartphone. "Important things go in a case!" George Costanza might actually like the iPhone Pocket! Though probably not the price... **One more thing:** if nothing else, how could you not love this bit about the iPhone Pocket from Clarke's piece for *Vogue*: > Faithful to Apple’s history of paper engineering, the packaging comes with ceremony—and a Japanese twist. The long, frosted paper that contains the iPhone Pocket was inspired by the rice paper candy bags used for a Japanese children’s festival where long sweets are given to symbolize prayers for a healthy life ahead. For Miyamae, it evokes a childlike sense of excitement and anticipation: “The idea is that you’re opening a gift that’s full of candy.” That alone almost makes me want to get one. Almost. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Apple-iPhone-Pocket-and-ISSEY-MIYAKE-hero_big.jpg.large_2x.jpg) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Jony Ive Reinvents the ButtonLoveFrom teams up with Moncler on outerwear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-543.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/HEIF-Image-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-lovefrom-moncler/) [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-546.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-11.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [A Brilliant Button is How it WorksThe details behind LoveFrom’s “Duo Button”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-544.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Moncler-LoveFrom-Button-2-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/duo-button-design-lovefrom/) --- 1 The one time I met Steve Jobs, just a few months before his death, he was indeed wearing his Miyake-designed uniform. [↩](#) 2 I'm trying to still be able to put it in my pocket with the strap on, which is undoubtedly overkill. But actually, I'm mainly trying it not for fashion but for function: [I had an iPhone swiped right out of my hand](https://spyglass.org/an-iphone-stolen/) while walking, so this strap gives me more peace of mind, if nothing else. [↩](#) 3 The new ["you're holding it wrong."](https://www.wired.com/2010/06/iphone-4-holding-it-wrong/?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) ### Two AI Roads Diverged... URL: https://spyglass.org/anthropic-openai-ai-profit-plan/ Last updated: 2025-12-26T22:41:45.000Z When the history of AI is written – perhaps by AI – OpenAI and Anthropic are destined to be inextricably linked. The leaders of the latter emerged from the former, of course. And ever since then, they've seemingly been on the same general road, racing towards building the future of AI. But what started as philosophical differences around how to build towards that future – hence, the split – has grown into both product and practical ones as well over time. While both companies are still growing at incredible rates, their businesses are also seemingly about to diverge... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### The iPhone Error URL: https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-error/ Last updated: 2025-12-28T22:16:00.000Z [ Apple Delays Release of Next iPhone Air Amid Weak Sales Apple pulls next-generation iPhone Air off its release schedule next fall ![](https://ti-assets.theinformation.com/assets/favicon_prod/apple-touch-icon-17b1f49459c7f7c83dc31adcd741f913dce8fd969ac81180d6e67fa24db6694e.png) The Information Wayne Ma & Qianer Liu ![](https://tii.imgix.net/production/articles/16047/dd2e9d3a-e6fa-4520-855a-10cb02a45996.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&auto=format&w=400&dpr=4.5) ](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-delays-release-next-iphone-air-amid-weak-sales?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) The iPhone Air was [always going](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) to be [a bit of a risk for Apple](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Apple%27s%20%27iPhone%20Air%27%20Gamble). Yes, it looks great and yes it *feels* great in hand, but it [didn't seem like](https://spyglass.org/think-thin-iphone-ultra/) those two elements would be enough to overcome the fact that it's very much [an "in-between" iPhone](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-foldable-ibook/). That is, it exists squarely in the middle of the two *actually* most important elements of the device: it's neither the best iPhone or the least expensive iPhone. And sure enough: > Apple is delaying the release of next year’s version of the iPhone Air, its thinnest smartphone, after the first model sold below expectations, according to three people involved in the project. > > Although the length of the delay remains uncertain, the product won’t be released in fall 2026 as previously planned, they said. Apple has already sharply scaled back production of the first version, according to multiple people with direct knowledge of the matter. The writing was on the wall here [from the get-go](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20The%20iPhone%20Air%20Up%20There%20%28And%20Down%20There%29), when early shipping time checks made it seem like the device was still widely available after launch. This seemingly indicated that either Apple produced too many or demand wasn't there – or both.[1](#one) It will be interesting if Apple attempts to push back on this report at all – perhaps on background to other publications? Maybe there will be some casual comment that the device was never meant to be on a yearly cadence? They could even point to the fact that it was called the 'iPhone Air' and not the 'iPhone 17 Air' – which led to immediate speculation that it *wouldn't* be on a yearly release cycle. [As I wrote after the unveiling](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/): > The worst kept secret in Cupertino ([this year](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/)) [is](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) [here](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-foldable-ibook/): iPhone Air. Notably, it's not 'iPhone 17 Air', just 'iPhone Air' which stands out in the line up with iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. And it leads to the obvious question if Apple views this as a one-off design, perhaps if it doesn't sell well? That seems unlikely, so perhaps they'd just do an 'iPhone Air 2' next year? But that would be a bit awkward and confusing if they stick with the standard naming schemes for the other iPhones – i.e. do I buy an iPhone 18, an iPhone 18 Pro, or an iPhone Air 2 next year? Then again, next year should also see the 'iPhone Fold' introduced, so perhaps we're slowly moving away from the bigger numbers, which were always untenable at some point. Were we really going to get an 'iPhone 37' in 2045? Yeah, if nothing else, the naming scheme gives them some flexibility here... Regardless, it's hard to combat this from Ma and Liu's report: > Foxconn, one of two companies that assembles the iPhone Air for Apple, has dismantled all but one and a half of its production lines for the first version and expects to halt all production by the end of the month, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. Luxshare, the other company that assembles the device, halted all production at the end of October, according to people with direct knowledge of the developments. In contrast, Foxconn and Luxshare have dedicated dozens of production lines to top-selling models like the iPhone 17 Pro. As the report notes, this would be yet another "other" version of the iPhone that Apple has failed to make work in the market. This dates back to the iPhone 5c days – [Jony Ive's super colorful iPhones](https://techcrunch.com/2013/09/10/iphone-5c/?ref=spyglass.org) – and continued through the iPhone mini. Consumers, it seems, really may just want either the "best" or the "affordable" when it comes to the device. But Apple isn't giving up all hope, it seems: > Apple has stopped short of canceling the next iPhone Air, internally code-named V62, and some Apple engineers and manufacturing partners are still working on it, the people said. It’s possible the product is undergoing a significant redesign, and one person said Apple could still release the second-generation iPhone Air as soon as spring 2027 alongside the standard iPhone 18 and budget-friendly 18e. Apple [is permanently shaking up](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-plans-iphone-release-schedule-shakeup-new-styles?ref=spyglass.org) its annual iPhone release schedule so that it debuts cheaper models in the spring and more expensive models in the fall. Of course, this also shouldn't be too surprising as much of the work on the 'iPhone Air 2' is presumably already locked and loaded in order to have it ready for what would have been a Fall 2026 release. Certainly, Apple can postpone that release, as now seems to be the case, but cancelling it would be a waste of a lot of work. [Sunk cost fallacy](https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-sunk-cost-fallacy?ref=spyglass.org) and all that, but it probably makes sense to give it at least one more go? Especially if, just as was the case with the MacBook Air lineup originally,[2](#two) Apple intends the new model as a "testing ground" of sorts for new designs and technologies that will eventually come to the broader lineup... Further, staggering the release to be "off-cycle" might make a lot of sense (and more sense than [shifting the "regular" iPhone](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) to the Spring – [*see update below*](#update)). [The one surprise to me](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) about the iPhone Air at launch was that it was actually more of an 'iPhone Pro' model than a 'standard' iPhone model. This would seemingly set it up well to sit alongside the iPhone 'e' models – the actual "cheapest" iPhone – in the Spring. So next year, you could have this: **Fall 2026:** - iPhone 18 ("regular" – affordable) - iPhone 18 Pro ("pro" – best) **Spring 2027:** - iPhone 18e ("regular" – cheapest) - iPhone Air 2 ("pro" – thinnest) The wild card here, of course, is the 'iPhone Fold' – yes, *yet another* attempt at a new iPhone model. The disappointing sales of the iPhone Air may at least give Apple some pause as to how they position the device, but it too is undoubtedly full-steam ahead right now leading up to the Fall 2026 release. And unlike the Air, the Fold shouldn't be "in-between" but rather, it should be *more extreme* when it comes to price, [likely $1,999 or more to start](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/), pushing the iPhone Pro models into the middle in that regard. But the dual-screen and entirely new form-factor should be enough to overcome any challenges of selling it versus the iPhone Pro lineup. There, the issue will be price: are people willing to pay as much for an iPhone as they pay for a high-end MacBook Pro? Perhaps *double* what they pay for a MacBook Air? I mean, probably, presuming it's good! But the foldable market to date is [still very much nascent](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/), so that will fall to Apple's marketing team. Then again, marketing clearly hasn't worked with these other new iPhones in the past, so... We'll see! --- **Update**: [In a follow-up report](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/apple-explores-adding-second-camera-next-iphone-air-boost-sales?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), Ma and Liu specifically note that Apple is thinking about adding **a second camera** to the would-be second interation of the iPhone Air. While it's not clear that they could do the work needed in time to hit the Spring 2027 timetable above, I'm more surprised by the continued reporting that Apple is aiming to use the Spring timeframe for the "regular" iPhone 18 as well. That would mean Fall of 2026 would only see the iPhone Pro models as well as the iPhone Fold – two clearly premium and thus, expensive, offerings. I like my staggered pricing options timetable strategy a lot more! --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The 3 iPhone ProblemAn interesting dilemma coming soon to iPhone users: choice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-542.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_hand_holding_up_a_foldable_iphone_cartoon_--v_7_1cbf5c2a-ef09-42d1-9f9c-2985eae01333_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) [The Year-Round iPhoneA staggered release schedule makes sense for a few reasons…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-541.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_iphone_going_through_the_different_seasons_of_the_ye_e9b6bf65-c86a-4031-aa2d-9f91caaac2fd_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) [Thin Is In Before a Foldable Is OutGaming out some ‘iPhone Air’ and ‘iPhone Fold’ options…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-540.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_iphone_that_folds_like_a_book_--ar_21_--profil_2bb22a01-1fbc-4da3-afb3-40b387e43d7f_0-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) --- 1 There were then some early indications of [strong demand for the model in China](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20The%20iPhone%20Air%20Up%20There%20%28And%20Down%20There%29), but that may have just been due to the fact that it was [delayed](https://spyglass.org/signal-openais-pbc-race-is-on/?ref=spyglass-signal-newsletter#:~:text=So%20much%20for%20those%20iPhone%20Air%20pre%2Dorders%20in%20China%2C%20as%20the%20device%20is%20now%20clearly%20delayed%20while%20all%20the%20carriers%20%28and%20the%20government%29%20scramble%20to%20ensure%20they%20can%20handle%20the%20eSIM%20element%20%28at%20first%20only%20China%20Unicom%20was%20on%20board%2C%20which%20presumably%20the%20other%20carriers%20didn%27t%20love%29.%20%5BSCMP%5D) as they figured out the SIM-free carrier situation. [↩](#) 2 That original MacBook Air, despite [the famous and iconic Steve Jobs envelope unveil](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvfrVrh76Mk&ref=spyglass.org), was also not a huge hit out of the gate. But that was also largely because it was expensive and under-powered... [↩](#) ### "Hey, There's a Bubble." URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/ Last updated: 2025-12-21T15:07:25.000Z [This scene](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECmh0M-aHPg&ref=spyglass.org) has been living in my head rent-free (though not mortgage-free) for the past couple of weeks. Mark Baum matter-of-factly declaring the bubble while instructing his colleague Vinny Daniel to short the US housing market, after a trip to Florida which culminates in a stripper telling Baum about her multiple condos – and multiple mortgages.[1](#one) Yes, *The Big Short* is a great [movie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FBig%5FShort%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org) adaptation of a great [book](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FBig%5FShort?ref=spyglass.org). Hard to believe it's a decade old given how much it has been coming up of late. Why? The AI investment market of course. The situation has become so heated – or *overheated*, as it were – that no less than the other "MB" of the movie/book,[2](#two) Michael Burry, is tweeting again. [In the most meta ways possible](https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1984067754270319052?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1984067754270319052%7Ctwgr%5Eb8018d215d55fef07785f0a57102001cfa01930c%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2025-10-31%2F-sometimes-we-see-bubbles-michael-burry-warns-retail-traders&ref=spyglass.org). Oh yes, and [taking massive short positions](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-discloses-bets-against-palantir-nvidia-after-bubble-warning-160833946.html?ref=spyglass.org).[3](#three) We are so back. I've been around long enough that I've both witnessed and written about several bubbles. I was actually working after school as an intern at Merrill Lynch when the Dot Com Bubble both inflated and burst. And I was working as a reporter when the Housing Bubble did the same. That latter one had little to do with tech, of course. But it still impacted that world because it impacted everything. Most of my time [writing about bubbles](https://techcrunch.com/2010/12/06/bubble-2/?ref=spyglass.org) though have been about [the "bubble" variety](https://500ish.com/the-great-deflate-6bc847df9809?ref=spyglass.org). You know, the kind that many people endlessly call out and declare when it seems like things are getting overheated, only to look silly when the market just keeps on going and growing without collapse – [including, by the way, Michael Burry](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/will-stocks-fall-michael-burry-says-sell-in-ominous-tweet-ahead-of-fed?ref=spyglass.org). This time is different. Yes, I'm using the famous phrase [used to counter](https://spyglass.org/vc-crisis/) bubble speak ironically. This time *is* different because the AI build out is *so clearly* a bubble. In fact, I believe many of the companies involved not only know this – I mean, how could you not? – but are now [actually leveraging this reality](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/). I say this knowing full well that since the days of tulips, the term has a universally negative connotation when it comes to finance. But this time is also different in the sense that people are coming around to the idea that perhaps bubbles aren't so black and white. That there can be good aspects of such exuberance on top of the bad. Many note this in hindsight, of course – the telecom fiber bubble helping to (literally) lay the groundwork for the current internet, being one key example. But this time people are seemingly understanding this dichotomy in real time. Ben Thompson's *Stratechery* article last week on ["The Benefits of Bubbles"](https://stratechery.com/2025/the-benefits-of-bubbles/?ref=spyglass.org) is a good example and read about this notion.[4](#four) And in it, he heavily cites Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber's book [*Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation*](https://press.stripe.com/boom?ref=spyglass.org), timely published last year essentially calling for a bubble to help accelerate key core technological growth – something which is now clearly happening. Others have been talking about "good" bubbles recently as well – but many of those folks are also [clearly conflicted](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%5BNYT%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22The%20ones%20that) on the topic, [notably Amazon founder Jeff Bezos](https://www.ft.com/content/8d80f601-4725-489a-8d6e-39099a01f9cb?ref=spyglass.org). Still, that doesn't make them wrong. Again, when you hear most people talking about or discussing bubbles, they get angry or annoyed, or both, quickly. This is especially true on the internet, which specializes in both angry and annoyed. Certainly some of it is a variation of FOMO and a lot of it is always tied to a general dislike of seemingly irrational behavior – especially if it runs [the very real risk](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) of tanking the entire stock market and potentially the entire economy, as tends to happen with the biggest bubbles! But this time also feels a bit different in that many people seem even more upset in talking about/thinking about this bubble because of the main players involved. Unlike, say, [the "web3" (small in comparison) bubble](https://500ish.com/hyp3-1d7ad4924015?ref=spyglass.org) that immediately predated this bubble, to many it seems less like [obvious hucksters](https://mgs.blog/living-in-a-hucksters-paradise-2c776ec0f2a5?ref=spyglass.org) and more like the largest companies in the world and technologists that are largely seen as some of the smartest people in the world pushing this forward. That is to say, it's not the strippers buying condos this time. At least not yet. All of this, in turn, seems to further fuel the concern/fear that this time might be different – i.e. this might be real. Or the *opposite* angle, that this is clearly not real (at least not to the extent the public is being sold) but there's extra anger because people and brands previously trusted are perpetrating this madness. As with all things, there's nuance here too. And, perhaps annoyingly to many, both things can be true. Again, this both can be a bubble – one which will undoubtedly have negative side effects, as they always do – and this bubble can still largely end up being a positive thing on a number of fronts. With all that in mind, it's somewhat humorous (though to the people noted above, undoubtedly even more infuriating) to watch the companies behind this bubble increasingly stumble in trying to justify the situation. The name most synonymous with AI, OpenAI, has stepped in it a few times, but [last week's talk of "backstops"](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) was undoubtedly the worst yet. And they made it even worse by trying to backtrack! And they clearly felt the need to try to backtrack because when you mix the notions of "bubbles" with the notion of (government) "backstops", you get "boom!" They can largely thank the aforementioned Housing Bubble for that, as much of the population of the US is still angry about the bailouts the Big Banks got despite their role in perpetrating the madness. When you hear the "backstop" word, it sounds like Big Tech will be assuming the same treatment if and when this all blows up. The reality, again, is more nuanced. While "backstop" may be a poorly used trigger word, OpenAI also clearly wants – [and probably *needs*](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) – the government to help [guarantee the debt](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) that they need to raise in order to build the data centers required to scale. That's just the reality of the situation. And while the other Big Tech players might not require the government for their debt raising needs, they all need the help on the power generation/regulatory front, for example. The public undoubtedly largely doesn't want to hear this, but that also doesn't mean they won't benefit from it – in that presumably all of society will benefit.[5](#five) Maybe it's thanks to the very AI these companies are trying to build, or maybe it's something tangential that, say, springs from the new fountains of power. The real tricky element here is if the "haves" benefit more than the "have nots" from all of this – something which undoubtedly is also [being acutely felt right now](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) as layoffs hit everyone from Big Tech on down, even as we're being promised that AI will lead us all to [this age of abundance](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/). It feels like the tech industry is increasingly losing that argument as the bubble continues to inflate. And so the talking points are shifting elsewhere. "Beating China" has always been one – which is to say, "winning" in AI is in the national interest even if you don't buy the societal one. Big Tech has had [some success](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) with [this argument](https://spyglass.org/the-500b-phone-call/) when it comes to the government – though even that may be slipping now, as NVIDIA is [finding out first hand](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-nvidias-blackwell-ai-chip-not-other-people-2025-11-03/?ref=spyglass.org). For Wall Street, the talking points now feel firmly in the "yes, this spend *seems* crazy, but even if we're over-building out capacity, we have other ways to use it" camp. That's relatively easy for the Big Cloud players to say, but even OpenAI is now repeatedly [saying this](https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007?ref=spyglass.org) – saying that [once they build the capacity](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), they'll likely flip the switch to offer their own cloud services to third-parties, and Meta is now implying this as well. [*Field of Dreams* economics!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3c%5FpJ%5FCLJQ&ref=spyglass.org) That's all fine, perhaps even true to some extent. But it doesn't change the reality that if and when the market shifts – as it always does – the fear of missing out will shift to just plain fear. Money flowing out of NVIDIA (as the biggest "pure" AI bet of the moment – which has pushed it to *a $5T company*) will lead to money flowing out of everyone else and because these are the largest companies in the world, the S&P 500 will plummet. This is just a matter of *when* – it's inevitable. It might not even be this AI bubble bursting that causes it! But regardless, it will still trigger all of those yelling about the bubble to [yell louder about being right](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/). And so the reality of our current situation is that it's a race to get enough of the building done before it all comes crashing down. As a still unprofitable startup (though [no longer technically just a non-profit](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) at least!) OpenAI absolutely *needs* this to happen. The Big Tech players will obviously be able to weather any storm, but it will be a lot harder, if not impossible, to justify [the current CapEx levels](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) again post a bubble burst, so they really need to strike while it's hot, as it were. And it's hot right now. It's a bubble! But it's important to recognize that it's seemingly not the nefarious kind. Are there players trying to game and leverage the current system? No doubt. But the biggest players do legitimately seem to be true believers in the technology they're racing towards – call it AGI, [call it whatever you want](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). That doesn't mean they'll be right. And that also doesn't mean it will work. It's entirely possible everyone has been sucked into a herd mentality of trying to build the same basic thing when it's really some other flavor of AI that they should be focusing on – that certainly seems like a real risk given the concentration alone! It's also possible that this is one of those problems – as with so many technologies – that *looks* like a pretty straightforward path early on, and we get 80 or even 90 percent of the way there relatively quickly, but that last 10 to 20 percent proves far harder and will take years (and new ideas) or possibly decades to overcome. And if either of the above scenarios don't require say, NVIDIA chips – or at least not to the never-ending appetite to date... that also seems like it could be a problem. As does finding the correct and true depreciation value of said chips. Especially with [so much debt](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/) now flowing in [to help speed up](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) all of this... A lot of this sounds like pretty classic bubble problems. And they are. Again, it is a bubble! But it's also perhaps a harder one to short because again, it's seemingly less financial engineering and more figuring out the correct financing for actual engineering. At best, you could probably pull off a short simply on the macro risk causing an inevitable downturn, but the timing will be tricky. Still, the fact that there is too much exuberance and froth in the market will undoubtedly eventually make you "correct". (Though this is not financial advice!) Is it "time to call bullshit" to bring it back to Baum? Many will read the above, ***screaming***. Because again, while they may not be doing this to swindle people, the powers that be are nevertheless [benefitting](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) from this situation in the form of their stock prices, if nothing else (not to mention [their own big hedges](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/)!). And they've undoubtedly made more AI moves than they might normally as a result. It's not human nature, but it is the nature of business! And the powers that be are not only perpetrating this build out, they're *clearly* doing so on purpose to try to leverage the moment in time to move faster than would normally be reasonable. All it costs is trillions of dollars. Buckle up. It's a bubble. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-537.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) [IPOpenAIWhat might an OpenAI IPO look like? Can the market hold to get them there? What if it doesn’t? Backstops? Government guaranteed loans?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-536.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-7--2025--11_24_48-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-538.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) --- 1 Daniel, of course, is played by Jeremy Strong – a role which [directly led to him playing Kendall Roy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy%5FStrong?ref=spyglass.org) in *Succession*, which was produced by *The Big Short* director, Adam McKay. As an aside, that showrunner, Jesse Armstrong, would go on to cast Steve Carell as billionaire tech mogul Randall Garrett in *Mountainhead* (which [could and should have been a much better capture of our moment in time](https://spyglass.org/atlas-would-have-shrugged-at-mountainhead/) given the current AI boom). [↩](#) 2 Just to be clear, "Mark Baum" is not a real person, but [he's based on financer Steve Eisman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve%5FEisman?ref=spyglass.org). Michael Burry, though, [is very real](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael%5FBurry?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 3 While part of Burry's short is NVIDIA, by far the biggest part is Palantir. While there's obviously an AI angle to that as well, it's less straightforward and more perhaps just a comment about [how out of band Palantir is from a trading perspective](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/palantir-s-unwavering-momentum-sends-valuation-into-stratosphere?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 4 Thompson's specific addition here in light of the current situation is that the world is likely to benefit from the shift of (at least some) chip fab manufacturing back to the US and more broadly the moves to restart power generation in a meaningful way. The former is complicated because one of the biggest benefits is simply a hedge against the situation involving China and Taiwan. And it sort of pre-dates the full AI boom in the form of the original CHIPS Act, which of course started with President Biden, but now President Trump has [morphed it into something different](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) and, if we're being honest, potentially more effective – though that's almost entirely thanks to the timing with the AI build-out needs. The power element is also complicated due largely to the environmental elements which are swiftly being swept aside in the name of speed here. While I'm certainly in the pro-nuclear camp, the other turbine and "dirty" power generation quick stop gaps obviously aren't great and risk sliding the world back (hopefully only temporarily) from the progress on wind/solar/etc. Anyway, [you should read his post](https://stratechery.com/2025/the-benefits-of-bubbles/?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 5 One final, extra wrinkle in this particular bubble is the fear that the rise of AI will displace or even replace many jobs. So if the companies are pouring money in for not only future tech, but future tech that [many are worried about](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) to [varying degrees](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/), that just adds to all of these challenging feelings, to say the least! [↩](#) ### IPOpenAI URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo/ Last updated: 2025-12-21T15:07:13.000Z OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar may not want to talk about an IPO yet, but luckily, Alex Kantrowitz and I certainly do. As we spend the first twenty-plus minutes on the topic during [his *Big Technology Podcast* this week](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyNtzRQfCyM&ref=spyglass.org). [Friar's comments about the IPO](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-isnt-yet-working-toward-an-ipo-cfo-says-58037472?ref=spyglass.org) were quickly overshadowed because she also happened to bring up the notion of a government "backstop" during a sit down at *The Wall Street Journal’s* Tech Live conference. While she quickly moved to [clarify](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarah-friar%5Fopenai-wants-federal-backstop-for-new-investments-activity-7392049356012507136-wAV7/?utm%5Fsource=share&utm%5Fmedium=member%5Fdesktop&rcm=ACoAAClBTFwB3e8ij9qjwcRz2ZX6ZrzRUoQ467w) her comments, many took it to mean that she was calling for the government to guarantee the startup couldn't fail – the proverbial "too big to fail" situation, that myself and others have been talking about as the AI sector costs mount and the race with China to control the technology heats up. [As I wrote a few weeks back](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/): > It's all hypothetical, of course, but it's also a bit terrifying as to how quickly and easily it could become reality. It doesn't require the *collapse* of OpenAI, just something that merely showcases a *slowdown* in likely outcomes or timetables. Something that puts a chill on spending while sending a chill down the spine of the market. Something that plants a seed of real doubt: maybe this isn't going to play out as promised. > > This will lead to a private contagion that could lead to a public one. > > And again, that's all because OpenAI has set itself up for a completely binary outcome here. With [these massive deals](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/), they have bolstered themselves to the point of being "too big to fail". And with that phrase in mind, it's certainly possible that the powers that be in the White House – and certainly the current administration given their proclivity to strike deals [with, say, Intel](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) – decide to [bail them out](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) or backstop them in some way to stop the above from happening. Then again, I'm not sure we can trust anyone at the Treasury to be savvy enough to see all of this until it's too late... "Backstop" you say... Well, if nothing else, Treasury may be awake to this potential notion now! Sam Altman *also* [felt the need to clarify](https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007?ref=spyglass.org) this situation not only because of Friar's comments, but because he himself brought up the topic a couple weeks ago while [talking to Tyler Cowen](https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/sam-altman-2/?ref=spyglass.org). Both statements, the company is saying, are about the government stepping up to help with infrastructure build out for the benefit of *all* companies, not just OpenAI. And that, of course, would be nothing new. Basically everyone in tech has been calling on the government to help with the infrastructure needed to fuel this wave – notably in power generation. At the same time, there's one company that would arguably [benefit more](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) than the others in such a government-backed build out... If you read Friar's and Altman's comments in full, it's pretty clear what they're actually calling for: the government to help guarantee the loans OpenAI needs in order to do the build out. As I wrote about a few weeks back, this notion is the key to [OpenAI's $100B NVIDIA deal](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) – they need a partner [to help secure the debt they need to raise](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/). NVIDIA can (and seemingly will) do part of it, but [they're going to need more](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/). You know who could help them secure all they needed? The Treasury. Anyway, we don't have to argue semantics. To alleviate the big fear the public would have here, [David Sacks has now said](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/trump-ai-sacks-federal-bailout-openai-friar.html?ref=spyglass.org), on the record, that the Trump administration won't be bailing out OpenAI in the case that they [go bust](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). Of course, I'm also not sure they would say they're [bailing out Intel](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=Intel%20gets%20bailed%20out), even though their 10% purchase [sort of looks like that](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) in a certain light, but I digress... Back to the would-be IPO: > “IPO is not on the cards right now,” Friar said. “We are continuing to get the company into a state of constantly stepping up into the scale we are at, so I don’t want to get wrapped around an IPO axle.” Again, semantics. "Right now" is clearly the key there. *Obviously* Friar doesn't want to formally kick off the process *before they need to*, but there are also now multiple reports that they're at least talking about that process internally with [the shift to a PBC now done](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/). It's natural. I'm sorry, maybe I shouldn't use such words [with OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). Nothing is "natural" with this company, but naturally they have to IPO eventually to be able to get full access to the capital they require to reach their goals – something Altman himself has acknowledged recently. It may not happen next year, but 2027 seems like a pretty decent bet right now – though that's also largely macro dependent, which is the main point I made on the podcast. It's impossible to know what the market will look like in 2027, but there's a decent chance it will look *worse* than it does right now, simply because we've been on a bull run. And all runs end. This is a very real risk for all companies looking to go public, but especially OpenAI given their capital needs – and [how intertwined they are](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) with the other major players: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon... just to state the five largest companies in the world right now, all of which are now partnering with OpenAI in major ways. **One more thing:** if the current reports are even just directionally accurate that OpenAI may look to IPO around [a $1T valuation](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/?ref=spyglass.org) (and what else would they shoot for, *a down round*? If anything, that valuation may be *too low* in 2027...), the narrative around the moment will be fascinating because they're essentially asking investors to sign up for the belief that OpenAI will grow into the biggest company of all time, or close to it, in relative short order! If you're buying in at $1T to a still wildly unprofitable, hopefully still high-growth company... And that's of course the narrative [you would expect OpenAI to be pitching](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) in a would-be road show! What's the future of everything worth? $5T? Seems low. $10T? More? But this will not be like the IPOs of the rest of Big Tech – a group which OpenAI would immediately be a part of with such an IPO. Those companies all had huge headroom when it came to growth from time of IPO. At such a starting market cap, OpenAI would already be [just outside the top 10 largest companies in the world](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gbp/?ref=spyglass.org), and perhaps *a part of that group* depending on market conditions and the others on the list, at the time of listing. This is like Saudi Aramco. Are they going to be too big to IPO? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their StakeMicrosoft signs off on OpenAI’s PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-535.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-28--2025--08_44_31-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) [The IPOpenAIA step-back way to frame OpenAI’s rumored mega raise…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-532.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-03-17.49.44---A-futuristic-scene-with-robots-jumping-to-grab-flying-money-in-the-air.-The-robots-are-sleek-and-humanoid--with-metallic-bodies-and-glowing-eyes.-The--4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-531.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-534.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-533.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) ### OpenAI's Local AI Device Dreams URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-local-ai-device/ Last updated: 2025-12-21T15:06:26.000Z While most of the talk coming out of [Brad Gerstner's sit down with Satya Nadella and Sam Altman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gnl833wXRz0&ref=spyglass.org) was around a snap-back comment the latter made when Gerstner dared question how OpenAI might be able to pay for their trillion-dollar-plus in build-out commitments (something [Alex Kantrowitz and I discussed at length in his latest *Big Technology Podcast*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyNtzRQfCyM&ref=spyglass.org)), another comment, made almost in passing, caught my eyes and ears. [As Jowi Morales relays for *Tom's Hardware*](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-the-company-doesnt-have-enough-electricity-to-install-all-the-ai-gpus-in-its-inventory-you-may-actually-have-a-bunch-of-chips-sitting-in-inventory-that-i-cant-plug-in?ref=spyglass.org): > Aside from the lack of power, they also discussed the possibility of more advanced consumer hardware hitting the market. “Someday, we will make a\[n\] incredible consumer device that can run a GPT-5 or GPT-6-capable model completely locally at a low power draw — and this is like so hard to wrap my head around,” Altman said. Gerstner then commented, “That will be incredible, and that’s the type of thing that scares some of the people who are building, obviously, these large, centralized compute stacks.” In trying [to think](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) through [the type of device](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) OpenAI might be building alongside Jony Ive's io team [which they acquired](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/), I hadn't really thought about the notion that such a device might be aiming to run AI *locally*. Certainly Altman's "someday" qualifier may mean that it's the ultimate goal and not the *initial* goal for their hardware. But the fact that he calls out GPT-5 and GPT-6 suggests perhaps that "someday" isn't that far away. Imagine a device – a small, screen-less digital companion for you life – that is always on, always recording, always processing because it's running AI locally, not in the cloud. This seemingly would help with speed, privacy, and even battery life. Granted, you would still need the cloud/connection for certain things, such as up-to-date information retrieval, but perhaps the device could "fall back" to your smartphone connection for those use cases – especially since, without a screen on this device, OpenAI envisions that you're undoubtedly going to still have your smartphone with you. Perhaps [they just hope](https://spyglass.org/just-jony/) their device allows you [to use it less](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/). And this would seemingly answer [a question I've had](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) about the device from the get-go – because the connection element is something that [trips up many consumer devices](https://spyglass.org/chat-gpt-pin/) for different reasons. [As I wrote in May](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/): > Of course, none of that answers how such a device will connect to the cloud which will clearly be required here. A WiFi device seemingly doesn't make sense since it would be a huge pain to set up over and over again if you did take it with you (perhaps especially without a screen!). Perhaps it tethers to your phone, but there will be trade-offs there. Or maybe it comes with its own connection – the old, original Amazon Kindle approach. With the right partners, this could work, though again, whose paying for that bandwidth? > > This may seem like a detail but it will be of vital importance if the goal is truly to make a device that is "inevitable" as Ive so often likes to say. > > In the video, they're quick to note that it won't replace the smartphone any time soon, but clearly the intent here is to get people to use them less often. To do that, they will have to fill the moments in time that a smartphone fills for billions right now. Waiting in line. A lull in a conversation. The desire to look something up, only to get distracted down a rabbit hole of notifications. And a month ago, [I followed up with](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/): > If the team (rationally) assumes that everyone would still have their phone with them alongside this new device – and certainly not including a screen on this device will necessitate that – the easiest thing would be to tether to the phone, obviously. But there are also issues there when you don't [fully control the phone](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/), just ask Mark Zuckerberg [for his thoughts on that topic](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20Mark%20Zuckerberg%20Slams%20Apple%3A%20%E2%80%98They%20haven%E2%80%99t%20invented%20anything%20great%20in%20a%20while%E2%80%99)... A localized AI could solve a bunch of these issues... Per Altman's comment, a model running locally on-device could end up being profound in the way it shifts user behavior and the relationship with the device. Again, this isn't meant as a AI service hoovering up information about you on their servers, but rather your own personal AI companion – certainly, you could see that being the way OpenAI would want to frame this product and use such a narrative to sell it. Quite literally! Ironically, this is something [I've been going back to](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) in thinking about Apple's own positioning in the AI market. Because they control the hardware on which these services all run, if they too can start building [devices that are equipped](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) for [regular people](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/) to [run AI locally](https://spyglass.org/apple-core-ai/), that's interesting for the same reasons as OpenAI's device. It's nuanced and vague, but there are probably going to be new and interesting ways people learn to use AI when it operates in an always-on and extremely fast way with privacy as a key feature. Granted, we're not there yet with the right combination of models that can run locally and this type of open-ended functionality – at least not without some major, and majorly expensive hardware (and access to the right LLM code!). But it's undoubtedly just a matter of time. And you can probably bet that OpenAI, building hardware overseen by Jony Ive, wants to beat Apple to that particular punch. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-526.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [OpenAI’s Digital Assistant DeviceObvious challenges aside, it’s starting to come into focus…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-528.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) [An AI Device with LoveFrom OpenAIOr: ‘When Jony Met Sam’ -- Also: ‘A San Francisco LoveLetter’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-530.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_beautifully_design_AI-powered_pendant_--ar_43_--v_6.1_e21c8b0b-e49c-47c9-b4aa-fbfa1f68b35d_0-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) [“We’ve gone sideways.”Laurene Powell Jobs on OpenAI/IO’s iPhone antidote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-529.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/jljs-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) [OpenAI & IOSam Altman & Jony Ive aim to take the AI race into the real world…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-527.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-05-21-at-8.36.40-PM-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) ### Apple Finally Agrees to Fix Siri URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-google-gemini/ Last updated: 2025-12-16T22:47:36.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-6--2025--01_36_23-PM.png) Siri sucks. You know it. I know it. You'd think Apple would know it given that it has been the butt of jokes [*for nearly 15 years running*](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/). But their actions (and marketing) have always suggested otherwise. Siri leads to fun moments of [Zooey Deschanel whimsically dancing around her home](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP1YAatv1Mc&ref=spyglass.org), you see – not [Larry David swearing at his phone in his car](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTefnhbg0Ig&ref=spyglass.org). You're simply holding it wrong, [or something](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/). But in the past 18 months, something finally woke Apple up from the drunken slumber, dreaming of Steve Jobs' Siri promises. That something was the company completely and utterly shitting the bed when it came to new promises for Siri in the Age of AI. Granted, given the track-record, [we had no reason to believe them](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/), but [many did](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/), because they showed the new functionality on stage at WWDC! Well, sort of. Virtually. Maybe. Maybe not. [Probably not](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) – at least not anything that was actually close to shipping. [A complete and utter embarrassment](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). Commercials had to be pulled back. [Heads rolled](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/). That's what it seemingly took to wake up Apple to the reality we've all been living with for over a decade. Again, Siri sucks. And now, at last, we may have an *actual* solution. It's still a very much "I'll believe it when I see it" situation, but there is one key difference this time: Apple is finally giving Siri [a brain transplant](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/). Some of us [have been calling](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) for this [for a while](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) – again, we're living in the Age of AI, so Siri sucking this hard is all the more unacceptable – and now it finally seems on the verge of happening. Here's [Mark Gurman reporting for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-05/apple-plans-to-use-1-2-trillion-parameter-google-gemini-model-to-power-new-siri?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org): > Apple Inc. is planning to pay about $1 billion a year for an ultrapowerful 1.2 trillion parameter artificial intelligence model developed by Alphabet Inc.’s Google that would help run its long-promised overhaul of the Siri voice assistant, according to people with knowledge of the matter. > > Following an extensive evaluation period, the two companies are now finalizing an agreement that would give Apple access to Google’s technology, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. While this news isn't exactly new – it has been known for a while that Apple was doing [a sort of "bake off"](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) internally to potentially find a third-party partner to help fix their AI efforts – and we even knew that Google was [likely in pole position](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/), it's still reassuring to read a report with actual numbers and potential timetables. That suggests a deal that is indeed at the finish line, if not already over it. And it makes a new Siri – *an actually working Siri* – [possible](https://spyglass.org/siri-2026/) in the Spring of 2026. Halle-fucking-lujah. I know, I know, I really shouldn't get ahead of myself here. But I put a lot of faith in Google – and not because I worked there for a decade-plus, I swear. I'm still an Apple guy through-and-through – and was during my entire tenure within Google! They simply [still make the best devices](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). And I want to use the best devices. But what they don't make the best of is AI, as I concluded my post on the possibility of this news [a couple months ago](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/): > I sort of love this for them. Both of them. Imagine an iPhone largely powered by Gemini. The Pixel team can’t love this notion, [but Jimmy Fallon will be](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/) totally [stoked regardless](https://www.threads.com/@chadptorres/post/DNmA15NSYPW?xmt=AQF0O05PQN210A2-NSKJ7qXyyNnqngrlA8qLVx4oS-bmFQ&ref=spyglass.org). And it’s the right move for Google. The iPhone is still the iPhone. The Pixel is not the iPhone. And for Apple. Siri is still Siri. Siri is not Gemini. > > We are so back. They are so back. I kicked off that piece noting the long, illustrious-turned-contentious (to say the least) history of Google and Apple. From the best of friends to "thermonuclear war" and back again. The only constant being the Google Search deal. Once the courts [kept that intact](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) despite Google *losing* an antitrust case, the stage was set for this new deal. Apple may not have wanted to pay Anthropic $1.5B a year to use Claude but $1B a year to a partner that is paying you $20B+ for that Search deal? That can be just an in-kind deal! "Google, you know that $25B you owe us this year? Make it $24B, but we'll take a custom build of Gemini. Deal?" Deal. Speaking of that model, back to Gurman with a few more details: > Under the arrangement, Google’s Gemini model will handle Siri’s summarizer and planner functions — the components that help the voice assistant synthesize information and decide how to execute complex tasks. Some Siri features will continue to use Apple’s in-house models. > > The model will run on Apple’s own Private Cloud Compute servers, ensuring that user data remains walled off from Google’s infrastructure. Apple has already allocated AI server hardware to help power the model. There are probably a few other interesting wrinkles in there – one of which may be Apple's willingness to do this because a lot of their cloud infrastructure is already running on Google Cloud. So this may not be as heavy of a lift and as big of an ask as it may seem on the surface. And while the "walled off" aspect is clearly a must for Apple here, you could also imagine that the company may be willing to share some data – fully anonymized, of course – back to help constantly improve the model. And that may speak to why Google would want to do this deal (well, that and the money). Apple has devices in the wild at a scale that basically no one can match. Maybe Samsung, but this potentially unlocks a totally new user base. > While the partnership is substantial, it’s unlikely to be promoted publicly. Apple will treat Google as a behind-the-scenes technology supplier instead. That would make the pact different than the companies’ Safari browser deal, which made Google the default search engine. You could see why Apple might request this – it would be an embarrassing admission that they can't fix Siri themselves, that they *need* Google – but given this news already circulating, I also [wouldn't be shocked](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/11/03/gurman-siri-gemini?ref=spyglass.org) if they *do* talk about it more than Gurman is suggesting. If nothing else, it would help assure those of us who have lost faith in Siri that she really may be "fixed" now. My advice to Apple would be to suck it up and own it. They always tout wanting to give their user base the best services – long an explanation for continuing to use Google Search – and Gemini is, if not the best, [damn close](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/).[1](#one) Speaking of, this might also be slightly awkward because Apple was last seen on stage (well, on video) at WWDC a couple years ago [touting OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) as having the best AI tech and product with ChatGPT. It's a bit odd [they're not partnering with them](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) here given that partnership already in place, but everyone knows the scaling issues [OpenAI faces](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) – and moving over a billion potential Siri users would seemingly be a big problem, for both sides. Not to mention the whole Private Cloud Compute element. This is an operation that Google is just uniquely qualified to handle. > The agreement is also separate from earlier talks about integrating Gemini directly into Siri as a chatbot. Those discussions came [close to fruition](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/apple-in-talks-to-license-google-gemini-for-iphone-ios-18-generative-ai-tools?ref=spyglass.org) in both 2024 and [earlier this year](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/google-hopes-for-gemini-deal-for-apple-ai-this-year-ceo-pichai-says?ref=spyglass.org) but ultimately didn’t materialize into a feature. The partnership also doesn’t weave Google AI search into Apple’s operating systems. This is causing quite a bit of confusion, at least in my social media feeds. This new deal with Google to help power Siri would be *different* from the aforementioned OpenAI deal where Siri "falls back" to ChatGPT if it doesn't know an answer. (And how Apple had previously been talking – in public! – about using Gemini as another option here.) Presumably that functionality will remain intact, but it will probably be used *even less* given that Gemini-powered Siri should be more than capable for most requests! There's also seemingly some confusion around the 1.2T parameter model cited above. While such a model would be far ahead of Apple's current best-of-breed models for Siri – perhaps by an order of magnitude! – it's not some magical new threshold that Apple will get access to first. Google doesn't disclose how large their current Gemini models are, but there's some thought that Gemini 2.5 is already this large, or close to it. Ditto with GPT-5\. Perhaps even larger. Further, it's widely known that Google's next model, Gemini 3, [is right around the corner](https://sources.news/p/google-readies-gemini-3-perplexity?ref=spyglass.org). You can bet that will be at least 1.5T when it comes to parameters – in fact, that may be what this bespoke model for Apple is based on. That's just a guess, but it seems like a reasonable one. At the same time, per the report, Apple is working on their own 1T+ models internally with the notion of eventually taking over more of the Siri workload again one day. Google will be going into this partnership eyes wide open this time, but they also must know that Apple – in the midst of [a very real, and very problematic brain drain](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) on their models team – may struggle to match the state of the art from the current leaders in AI. Which is to say, this might still be a "many year" proposition for Google to help Apple here. And I think I like the hybrid approach – where Gemini can handle complex queries while Apple can maintain their current AI systems for, say, setting timers in iOS – more than Amazon's [early attempts](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) to [totally rebuild](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) Alexa on the fly. In a way, it seems like they eventually ended up at the same place, with Amazon using [their deep partnership](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) with Anthropic [to help get](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-alexa/) Alexa+ up to snuff ([sort of](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/)). One unknown here remains the promised personalized features of Siri from back at WWDC 2024\. Is Apple going to be able to use Gemini for the always important getting-grandma-home-from-the-airport task? Given that Google itself touted such functionality at their own I/O conference, perhaps. Or maybe Apple is still working on their own models for this work. Seemingly we'll see soon enough! Regardless, [I'm just excited](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) to have a Siri [that knows](https://onefoottsunami.com/2025/01/23/not-so-super-apple/?ref=spyglass.org) who won [which Super Bowl](https://daringfireball.net/2025/01/siri%5Fis%5Fsuper%5Fdumb%5Fand%5Fgetting%5Fdumber?ref=spyglass.org). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Google’s Epic Play Store Trade Puts More Pressure on AppleIs 80/20 (86/14 or 91/9) the new 70/30 (85/15)?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-511.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--07_44_01-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/) [Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AIOn paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burn…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-512.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_anptfianptfianpt-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/) [Apple and Google Are So BackThe famous frenemies seems awfully aligned again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-510.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-7.19.11---PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) --- 1 One other wrinkle per the reporting is that Apple may have actually thought *Anthropic's* models were the best –better than both OpenAI's and Google's – but simply couldn't figure out the right kind of deal to make it work... [↩](#) ### Google's Epic Play Store Trade Puts More Pressure on Apple URL: https://spyglass.org/google-play-store-epic/ Last updated: 2025-12-16T22:47:14.000Z [Epic and Google agree to settle their lawsuit and change Android’s fate globallyBig Android changes through 2032.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-46.png)The VergeSean Hollister![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/236883_Epic_Vs_Google_D_CVirginia.jpg)](https://www.theverge.com/policy/813991/epic-google-proposed-settlement?ref=spyglass.org) With Google on the clock in [their last-ditch attempt](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Supreme%20Court%20Declines%20Google%27s%20Emergency%20Halt) to be heard (or not) by the Supreme Court, we have a last minute trade! > Google is agreeing to reduce its standard fee to 20 percent or 9 percent, depending on the kind of transaction. It’s agreeing to create a new program in the very next version of Android where alternative app stores can *register* with Google and (theoretically) become first-class citizens that users can easily install. And it appears to be agreeing to offer “Registered App Stores” and lower fees *around the world,* not just in the US, lasting through June 2032 — six and a half years instead of just three. Essentially, it seems like Epic is agreeing to let Google retain some control over the Play Store (and, notably, the fee structure) in exchange for Google agreeing to roll out changes worldwide (not just in the US as was required) and for a longer timespan. I'm not sure it's a win/win but it's a win/less-loss. It's an Epic-was-going-to-win-so-they-take-less-of-a-win-to-expand-the-scope-of-the-win, win. [I've long been on record saying](https://spyglass.org/google-epic-fail/) that this case was potentially more troublesome to Google than their actual antitrust case (well, [the Search one](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/), as yes, there are *two*). And sure enough, while the antitrust remedies ended being in some ways [the best possible outcome](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/), Google kept getting hammered on this ruling. And it was going to fundamentally alter the business model for the Play Store. *That is still happening* with this proposal, but Google is reducing the damage somewhat thanks to the joint proposal with Epic – if the judge agrees to it (which presumably he will given how happy Epic *clearly is* with this ["awesome proposal"](https://x.com/timsweeneyepic/status/1985920786545123613?ref=spyglass.org).). It's a bit convoluted, but assuming [I'm reading it right](https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/xmpjqoyrbvr/Epic%20-%20Google%20settlement%2020251104.pdf?ref=spyglass.org), essentially, the old 30% commission is gone – as is the newer, lower 15% fee for certain types of smaller developers. Instead: > The details of how, when, and where Google would charge its fees are complicated, and they seem to be somewhat tailored to the needs of a game developer like Epic Games. Google can charge 20 percent for an in-app purchase provides “more than a de minimis gameplay advantage,” for example, or 9 percent if the purchase does not. And while 9 percent sounds like it’s also the cap for apps and in-app subscriptions sold through Google Play, period, the proposal notes that that amount doesn’t include Google’s cut for Play Billing if you buy it through that payment system. > > That cut will be 5 percent, Google spokesperson Dan Jackson tells *The Verge*, confirming that “ This new proposed model introduces a new, lower fee structure for developers in the US and separates the service fee from fees for using Google Play Billing.” (For reference, [Google currently charges](https://support.google.com/googleplay/android-developer/answer/112622?hl=en&ref=spyglass.org) 15 percent for subscriptions, 15 percent of the first $1M of developer revenue each year and 30 percent after that, though it also [cuts special deals with some big developers](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/20/23969690/google-spotify-android-billing-commission-secret-deal?ref=spyglass.org).) There's clearly quite a bit of gray area that still needs to be sorted out here, but my read is that if developers choose to mainly use Google's Play Store rails for in-app purchases, they'll pay 20%. If they don't, they'll pay 9%, plus 5% if they use Play Billing. So it sounds like it's a new 80/20 (86/14 or 91/9) model, depending on how developers choose to use the Google's services. If they use their own payment methods, they should just have to pay a 9% "service fee" on sales. That's not nothing, but it's also not 30%. And it's a nice discount over the 15% for smaller developers too. Though if they choose to use Play Billing, it may just be a 1% discount to the current model. But because the ruling also makes it so that Google has to allow for third-party services billing options *in-app* – not just linking out on the web – you have to imagine that developers are going to offer their own direct pay options alongside Google Play billing (which yes, is still required to be an option now with this proposal – and I think is fair, let Google [compete](https://500ish.com/compete-536b3963207d?ref=spyglass.org) for the customer!). And clearly third-parties will pop-up to make such options easy – it seems like [Stripe already is doing that](https://support.stripe.com/questions/changes-to-google-play-store-rules?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Apps%20can%20now%20process%20payments,up%20to%2090%25%20in%20fees.). And again, this is all in play *around the world,* not just the US. That's the big trade Epic is making. Because they know that the third-party app store options are not going to be viable if their only piecemeal options available in just some countries. That's too much work for a developers to do for limited potential upside. Now there's a lot more upside. It will be fascinating to see – again, if this deal is accepted by the judge – what this does to Google's bottom line. Their services business is clearly going to take a hit, but how big of one? **One more thing:** the next obvious question is what this means for Apple. Short term, nothing. While [Apple is battling their own various fights](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/) tangential to this one, they largely won their Epic battle, while Google largely lost their's. Ironically, [it came down to Google's promise of "open"](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) – a promise which Apple never made. Still, this will clearly put yet more pressure on Apple to change their own App Store rules. And it potentially sets a new standard for what "acceptable" app store cuts might look like. One could imagine [the judge that is so clearly annoyed with Apple](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) over their [own funny business](https://spyglass.org/apples-lol-fee/) with [such numbers](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/), might want to know these terms that Google and Epic just agreed to... [That plus 29 – 29! – countries *and counting*](https://9to5mac.com/2025/11/05/japan-to-become-29th-country-to-get-third-party-iphone-app-stores/?ref=spyglass.org) now forcing Apple to open up their platform to third party app stores, paints a picture of Apple being [painted into a corner](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/). They should probably be proactive here and make some changes before the courts keep making them do so and try to earn back some [goodwill](https://spyglass.org/vibe-coding-apple-devs/) with [developers](https://spyglass.org/apple-app-store-fraud-protection/). But it's Apple. But also, [this](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-court/) [certainly won't](https://spyglass.org/epics-feigning-floundering-to-keep-apple-under-pressure/) [settle down ](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/)[you-know-who](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/)... **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a partner at their venture fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Google’s Epic FailThis will drag on for years, but a clear message has been sent -- and Apple shouldn’t be relieved…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-507.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--17--1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/google-epic-fail/) [Tim Sweeney’s Last LaughA federal judge just dismantled Apple in the most Epic way possible…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-509.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_tim_sweeney_as_a_fortnite_character_in_battle_royale_--_673ed29c-8a68-48bb-87b9-37e5e34f0ffc_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) [“Open” Comes Back to Bite GoogleAs badly as I now want to bite into a Chick-fil-A thanks to the judge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-508.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OS_TextImage-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) ### AI is Breaking the Browser's Back URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-browsers-breaking-web/ Last updated: 2025-12-11T17:31:08.000Z A funny thing happened on the way to AI web browsers taking over the world: they're now getting blocked left and right from doing the things that would make them useful. This is, to say the least, a problem. I first noticed it when OpenAI rolled out [their 'ChatGPT Atlas' browser](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/) a couple weeks ago. In testing it out, I was trying to do one of the most obvious and straightforward use-cases: asking the embedded AI chatbot questions about the page I was visiting. The problem was that if the information happened to be on *The New York Times* [you got an error message](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1981077234782790093?ref=spyglass.org) noting that "ChatGPT is unable to access the contents of this website". Um, okay. This is obviously one of the largest sources of news and information in the world so yeah, that's not great. Even more problematic is that they don't tell you why you can't access the content – even if, like myself, you're a paying subscriber to *NYT*. You'd have to be up to date on your AI news – or read any number of recent *NYT* stories about AI where the disclaimer is repeated over and over again: > (The New York Times has [sued](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/business/media/new-york-times-open-ai-microsoft-lawsuit.html?ref=spyglass.org) OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems. The two companies have denied the suit’s claims.) There we go. Because these two sides can't come to an agreement on terms (which *NYT* has done with other AI players, [notably Amazon](https://spyglass.org/nyt-amazon-ai-deal/)), the users are screwed. If you try to ignore the yellow warning label and ask to say, summarize the page anyway, you get this: > I’m sorry, but I can’t access the full article from the link you provided to summarise it accurately. > > Would you like me to pull together a summary from other news-coverage of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral race instead? [I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5lsExRvJTAI?ref=spyglass.org), anyone? The workaround to let ChatGPT go and find other sources on the same story is easy enough for something like the NYC election where there are thousands of outlets covering it, but what if it's a legitimate scoop by the *NYT*? You're out of luck. Well, unless you use your eyes to actually read the page itself, like an animal. But actually, there's another, sort of humorous work-around: simply copying and pasting the entire text of the article into your ChatGPT chat box works just fine to produce a summary, of course. *NYT* undoubtedly won't like that either, but can they really stop you from doing it? Maybe if they try to claim it's also a misuse of their copyrighted information, but that feels like an awfully slippery slope, to stop a user with legitimate access to information from using a tool to summarize it... So instead, they just won't make it so easy to do with the agents built in to these browsers. But actually, the above workflow works just fine on Dia, [the AI browser from The Browser Company](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/). And that's true *even though that browser is using ChatGPT's APIs*! Awkward! How long until *NYT* starts demanding that OpenAI also blocks their APIs from accessing their content? Probably not long...[1](#one) And it points to a world in which the web is less open and more about which players have the right business development deals in place for the user. And that's going to be a muddled mess, fast. [As I wrote in May](https://spyglass.org/nyt-amazon-ai-deal/) around the news of the *NYT*/Amazon deal: > One tidbit included at the end of the post (which is breaking news, so it's still noted as a "developing story") is that this deal will allow Amazon to use NYT content with Alexa. That's only interesting if it means such content will explicitly be banned/limited from other such services – namely, ChatGPT, Gemini, and yes, even Siri. Presumably, each of those services gets around it using web search as a sort of "backdoor" to get at such information, but what if Amazon devices/services start getting access to NYT information and scoops early? Almost like a Bloomberg Terminal for the AI era! We're now one step away from this reality. You could argue much of this isn't exactly new since browser extensions – services [like Honey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal%5FHoney?ref=spyglass.org) – have long run into issues with terms of service on certain sites. But again, with these newfangled AI browsers, we're talking about functionality that is *built-in*, and is often [*the very point*](https://spyglass.org/perplexity-comet-ai-web-browser/) *of these browsers*. Sure, we could decide that they shouldn't be allowed to have such functionality, but in such a world [there's simply no way](https://spyglass.org/ai-web-browser/) that Chrome (and to a lesser extent, Safari on the iPhone) [ever get unseated](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/). That would be the definition of [anti-competitive behavior](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/). Especially [when Google](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) and Microsoft and everyone else is [playing](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) in the same game... It feels like this is all going to culminate with agents. That's the other shoe dropping this week: [Amazon threatening legal action](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/amazon-demands-perplexity-stop-ai-agent-from-making-purchases?ref=spyglass.org) against Perplexity because of the agentic shopping capabilities baked into [their own Comet browser](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/). Granted, Perplexity is no stranger to [stepping in it](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) when it comes to seemingly shady activity that has so far run afoul of Reddit, Cloudflare, and a range of publishers, but still, that doesn't mean they're wrong to [push back against Amazon](https://www.perplexity.ai/hub/blog/bullying-is-not-innovation?ref=spyglass.org) here. While Amazon may have some points about the technical implementations, the high level of such tools is clearly what we're fighting about here: Amazon does not want AI agents to be able to shop for users. Sorry, I should clarify: Amazon doesn't want AI agents [*made by anyone other than Amazon*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/perplexity-ai-amazon-bullying-comet-browser.html?ref=spyglass.org) to shop for users. This is self-serving, quite literally. And while they can say that the concern is about degrading the experience of using Amazon, it also sounds suspiciously like the experience they'd prefer the end-user have involves seeing ads for products they think you'll like. Again, Amazon stance would be that's a good thing as the ads can be helpful to give a user more choices, but come on. Amazon should care first and foremost about making a sale, but it's not that black and white. Such ads are now a huge and still-growing part of their business. If an agent is shopping on behalf of a user and doesn't see an ad... I mean, technically the agent may "see" (read) the ad, but certainly it won't count as an impression (and shouldn't – unless the agent is trained to be wooed by ads!). As such, Amazon's business is pretty fundamentally altered. Again, they'll say all of this is in the name of the best user experience, but shouldn't *the user* be able to determine that? That's the tricky thing about agents. They're tasked by users to work on their behalf. But they also break a fundamental tenet on which the web was built: *that a person is the one browsing*. And because the monetary engine that mostly powers the web has grown to be advertising-based around this very notion of human attention (and intent), this matters to a lot of people, and companies too! [From Google on down](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/)... At the same time, in no small part because of this reliance on ads, [the web has become a bloated mess](https://spyglass.org/unchoking-the-web/) in many corners. And so these AI tools are coming in like Ozempic to cut out some of the fat.[2](#two) I worry less about the web dying because of these tools creating better user experiences (that yes, will often require business models to be altered) and more so because these AI tools are going to cause the web to fragment into a thousand proprietary pieces. So to access *NYT* content, you'll need to use Alexa. To shop on Amazon, you'll need to use Rufus. Etc. As [Casey Newton pointed out in his *Platformer* newsletter](https://www.platformer.news/amazon-perplexity-comet-agents-future/?ref=platformer-newsletter) yesterday, a lot of these arguments are kind of moot right now because these agents still largely suck and so after people try [some of them as a novelty](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/) they go back to doing things themselves. But given the pace of advancement in AI, they're unlikely to suck forever, or even for very long when it comes to certain use cases. I mean, in a way, even the summarize-the-page action is agentic in that an AI bot is reading a page for you and doing an action: summarizing it. And this already works very well. Well, assuming your browser doesn't block you from doing it. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-11-05-at-10.59.04---AM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [How Low Will Apple Go?With regard to the price of a lower-cost MacBook…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-503.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--09_52_22-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/) [Netflix’s New Goal May Be to Buy HBO Before HBO Can Be BoughtBig Tech will have a hard time making the case to Wall Street in the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-505.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-27--2025--08_56_22-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/) [Microsoft’s Halo MaryIt’s starting to feel like Xbox is dead, and Microsoft’s pricey gaming buys were huge blunders…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-506.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-25--2025--09_35_00-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/) --- 1 Sorry for potentially blowing up your spot, Dia. [↩](#) 2 Has anyone coined "ChatGLP" yet? [↩](#) ### How Low Will Apple Go? URL: https://spyglass.org/low-cost-macbook/ Last updated: 2026-03-04T19:11:12.000Z [ Apple Prepares to Enter Low-Cost Laptop Market Apple Inc. is preparing to enter the low-cost laptop market with a budget Mac aimed at luring away customers from Chromebooks and entry-level Windows PCs. ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Mark Gurman ![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHz.srI32t14/v4/2000x1334.webp) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/apple-readies-a-low-cost-laptop-to-rival-chromebooks-and-windows-pcs?ref=spyglass.org) Back in June, [rumors first surfaced](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/) that Apple would be going downstream with a cheaper (or in Apple's preferred parlance "more affordable") MacBook. While you obviously always have to be wary of any reports about Apple doing anything revolving around price, this seemingly made sense for a few reasons. First and foremost, while we currently have a 'MacBook Air' and 'MacBook Pro' in Apple's lineup, there's a glaring marketing hole for the good old, simple 'MacBook'. And while there's no word on the branding of the device here, the name is right there for the taking with this: > Apple Inc. is preparing to enter the low-cost laptop market for the first time, developing a budget Mac aimed at luring away customers from Chromebooks and entry-level Windows PCs. > > The new device — designed for students, businesses and casual users — will target people who primarily browse the web, work on documents or conduct light media editing, according to people familiar with the matter. Apple is also targeting would-be iPad buyers who might prefer a traditional laptop experience instead. > > Code-named J700, the machine is currently in active testing at Apple and in early production with overseas suppliers. The Cupertino, California-based company plans to launch it in the first half of next year, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the product hasn’t been announced. The student angle is interesting – and something I've long [thought about](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/). When I was a kid, Apple dominated education – my entire school was filled at first with Apple IIs then later with Macs. This was true all the way through college, when even the computer labs at Michigan were filled with more than half Macs. But for whatever reason, [Apple decided to cede that market](https://500ish.com/apple-cedes-735192326da4?ref=spyglass.org). Well, the reason was most likely low-cost PCs and later Chromebooks rushing in, which Apple chose not to compete with, price-wise, in the Mac lineup, but clearly thought the already lower-cost iPad [could fill that void](https://500ish.com/an-apple-education-cfe02dd4e13?ref=spyglass.org). Certainly it has to some extent, but as Apple itself has made [abundantly clear](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/) in [their own positioning](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/), the iPad is not a PC – as in, a personal computer. And often times to get "real" work done, including in school, you still need that full-on computer. So now, finally, Apple seems set on giving schools a real option for such a machine again. So *how* is Apple going to do such a machine without squeezing their famously protected margins to death? Ming-Chi Kuo also seemed to nail this aspect [back in June](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1939558413459177897?ref=spyglass.org) – *an iPhone chip*: > Apple plans to sell the new machine for well under $1,000 by using less-advanced components. The laptop will rely on an iPhone processor and a lower-end LCD display. The screen will also be the smallest of any current Mac, coming in at slightly below the 13.6-inch one used in the MacBook Air. > > This would mark the first time that Apple has used an iPhone processor in a Mac, rather than a chip designed specifically for a computer. But internal tests have shown that the smartphone chip can perform better than the Mac-optimized M1 used in laptops as recently as a few years ago. This chip news was the most surprising aspect of the rumor back then – it's a chip designed for the iPhone when Apple already has chips designed for the Mac – but it also seemingly made some sense, as I wrote at the time: > It's less clear how reliable Kuo's information would be about what is powering such machines. But it seems reasonable enough to think that Apple could use the 'A' series chips found in iPhones, as Mayo points out, they're certainly powerful enough, with similar performance to their 'M' series cousins which have been used in MacBooks since they switched to Apple Silicon (the iPad switches between the two series, with the 'Pro' models now getting the 'M' chips). > > One big benefit of using the 'A' series chips: Apple produces them at a much higher quantity thanks to the iPhone (and to a lesser extent, the lower-end iPads). So presumably they carry a lower cost and as such, could lead to price savings for an actual MacBook device. But would it be better than, say, [using the last generation of the 'M' series chip](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/)? Hard to say... It seems easier to say now. While it's again not clear how Apple would *brand* such a chip, it does *sound* like it will be a chip more akin to the 'A' series than the 'M' series. And that branding could be key for making this seem more like a *new* device and not just "yesterday's model" of MacBook – a strategy Apple has been [trying out with Walmart](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/) around their OG M1 MacBook Airs. Perhaps Apple got enough compelling data at the $699 price point for these machines that they felt the need to dive deeper with their own new SKU... While no specific price is given in this report aside from "well under $1,000", the big question is how low Apple will go here. They have a lot of room below the current $999 M4 MacBook Air – which is $899 with a student discount. Is $799 low enough for this product? Do they have to meet the $699 price of the Walmart MacBooks? Could they do $599 to get it in line with the iPad + Keyboards? *Do they dare do $499* to get their machines actually competitive with Chromebooks? Let's not get carried away. I guessed the $799 price point back in June and I'm sticking to that. Perhaps $699 with that student discount. And Apple would frame it, [as they always do](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/), as "not the cheapest, but the best" (in that general segment). That would give us a lineup that looks like: - MacBook Pro (16"): $2,499 - MacBook Pro (14"): $1,599 - MacBook Air (15"): $1,199 - MacBook Air (13"): $999 - MacBook (13"): $799 Nice and clean. And as much as I might love [a return of the old school 12" MacBook](https://mgs.blog/rip-12-inch-macbook-cf8369b233dc?ref=spyglass.org), given the target market here, focusing on a still robust (though apparently slightly smaller than the 13.6" of the current MacBook Air) 13" screen probably makes sense. And this device overall would be yet another move by Apple to [flex their true muscle](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/). Not AI, but machines. A MacBook for students. A MacBook [with a modem](https://spyglass.org/cellular-macbook-pro/)? A MacBook with [a touchscreen](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%BB%20Touchscreen%20MacBook%20Pros)... **One more thing:** the real wild card here could be color. Kuo's original report mentioned color options (though one could see how his "pink" and "yellow" options could actually be "rose gold" and "gold"), but imagine if Apple really [brought the fun back](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/) to the lineup [with iMac-like colors](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/)? With the glowing Apple logo long dimmed, might this be the new status symbol for students? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--09_52_22-AM-3.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/ChatGPT-Image-Nov-5--2025--09_52_25-AM-1.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Gemini_Generated_Image_ly9isnly9isnly9i-2.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/11/Gemini_Generated_Image_sc5wy9sc5wy9sc5w.png) --- **Update March 4, 2026**: And here she is... [MacBook Neo: WhoaApple’s newest Mac is priced to move…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1067.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-5.51.36---PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Return of the MacBook?A colorful, cheaper Apple laptop has been a dream, but reality is often more drab…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-499.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_colorful_macbook_photorealistic_--ar_43_--v_7_549283bd-a84d-4f1e-9110-8df2a8a1adca_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/) [Where is the Colorful MacBook?I’m not the least bit ashamed to admit that I hate April Fools Day. First, I’m someone who values high quality information above all else.1 Second, it’s stupid. Yes, I’m a grinch or whatever. I just don’t find any of the jokes – especially the jokes by tech companies – funny.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-500.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Basic-Apple-Guy-thread-photo-2-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/) [Goo Goo GoogleApple ceding the education market to Chromebooks gives Google a unique counterposition in the age of AI... (And it may help square the Apple falling searches circle...)![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-498.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-15--2025--05_43_26-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/) [That First Cellular MacBook Pro May Be Very Close......or Apple could simply be testing it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-502.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f63520c0-69fc-451e-a507-869f7baadb2c.png)](https://spyglass.org/cellular-macbook-pro/) [Always the Low Price, Always. Even with Apple.Walmart Brings the Popular MacBook Air With the M1 Chip to Its Shelves Available for only $699, Walmart will begin offering the MacBook Air with the M1 chip at an amazing value that combines performance, battery life and portability Walmart News Walmart Probably not something you were expecting to casually![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-501.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1710444274892-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/) ### Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AI URL: https://spyglass.org/buyer-beware-big-tech-gains-and-losses-boosted-by-big-ai/ Last updated: 2026-05-21T10:00:11.000Z [ Alphabet, Amazon Stakes in Anthropic Boost Profit by Billions Alphabet and Amazon were rewarded by investors for reporting better-than-expected third-quarter profits. ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Davey Alba & Shirin Ghaffary ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/Gemini_Generated_Image_anptfianptfianpt-1.png) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/alphabet-amazon-stakes-in-anthropic-boost-profit-by-billions?srnd=homepage-americas&ref=spyglass.org) Business is booming in Big Tech, and that's now showing up in big (and unique) ways on profit and loss statements, in part driven by their own investments in Big AI: > Alphabet and Amazon were rewarded by investors for reporting better-than-expected third-quarter profits. At both companies, earnings were boosted by the increased value of their stakes in Anthropic PBC, maker of the popular Claude chatbot. > > Alphabet [said](https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc%5Ffinancials/2025/q3/GOOG-10-Q-Q3-2025.pdf?ref=spyglass.org) profit included “net gains on equity securities of $10.7 billion,” in part from a private company. That company is Anthropic, according to people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named disclosing non-public information.Meanwhile, Amazon’s third-quarter profit climbed 38%, helped by a $9.5 billion pretax gain from its investment in Anthropic. The higher value was reflected in Amazon’s nonoperating income for the period, the company said in its [Thursday earnings report](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/amazon-reports-cloud-computing-unit-grew-faster-than-expected?ref=spyglass.org). This is nothing new – see also: [Google's recent rise](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/peacocking-performative-chats?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Why%20did%20Alphabet%E2%80%99s%20net%20income%20get%20an%20%248B%20boost%20last%20quarter%3F%20Likely%20a%20rise%20in%20the%20on%2Dpaper%20value%20in%20SpaceX%2C%20thanks%20to%20Google%E2%80%99s%20investment%20back%20in%20the%20day.%20This%20remains%20one%20of%20the%20more%20silly%20accounting%20rules%2C%20since%20obviously%20this%20value%20is%20in%20no%20way%20realized%20yet.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) in "profit" thanks to a mark-up that was [seemingly tied to SpaceX](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/alphabet-s-profit-gets-8-billion-boost-from-spacex-investment?ref=spyglass.org) – but the scale and speed at which the Big AI companies are raising (and [just how intertwined](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) Big Tech is [in these deals](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/)) are causing these reports to happen in even more pronounced ways, more frequently. > The surge of investment in private-company generative AI is beginning to show up in public-company metrics. Once seen mainly as strategic bets on a fast-moving frontier, stakes in AI startups are now contributing sizable, if still paper, profits to some of the world’s biggest businesses — even as the technology itself is only starting to pay commercial dividends. The "paper" part is key here. While this is being reported as income per GAAP guidelines, there's no actual profit here. At least not yet. Google doesn't see $10.7B more in cash coming in, nor does Amazon see $9.5B more in their bank account. These are simply on paper markups of their holdings. Yes, it's a little silly, but the alternative is also silly: > Microsoft, meanwhile, said in reporting its own quarterly earnings this week that its net income was reduced by $3.1 billion to account for losses suffered by OpenAI. The software company has backed the ChatGPT maker with $13.75 billion, and holds a 27% stake. Wait, Microsoft is reporting billions in "losses" while Google and Amazon are reporting billions in "gains"? Even though both are tied to investments being marked up by billions? Yes, it's because Microsoft is using a different accounting guideline – the "equity method" – which states that they should take the pro rata portion of the profits or losses (so, losses) that OpenAI has each quarter. This is how [Matt Rosoff was able to](https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/29/microsoft%5Fearnings%5Fq1%5F26%5Fopenai%5Floss/?ref=spyglass.org) back into the losses OpenAI likely saw last quarter for *The Register,* even though, as a private company, they don't have to report them. It's just math. (Though [complicated somewhat](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-31-2025/card/openai-made-a-12-billion-loss-last-quarter-microsoft-results-indicate-e71BLjJA0e2XBthQZA5X?ref=spyglass.org) by Microsoft's [humorously disclosed](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/) 32.5% stake *before* it was diluted by the most recent OpenAI equity raises – and, of course, taxes. Big companies, they're just like us, getting screwed by taxes.) Anyway, Google and Amazon are using the fair market value (FMV) rules for their investment, which means they have to show the mark up (or mark down) when something changes the value of their holdings. That's even more complicated if there's no financing event but simply those companies deciding the value of their holdings should be worth less (or more – though it's almost always less if they're determining it themselves, sometimes for tax reasons). This is more common with banks (which is why you see reports around the big ones marking down their holdings in various startups), but certainly can happen with these Big Tech shareholders too. But wait, why can Microsoft use one method and Google/Amazon another? I'm no accountant, but it seems tied to the relationship the companies have with their investments. While Microsoft obviously doesn't have a *controlling* stake, they perhaps are deemed to have significant sway over the company given the cloud relationship and the revenue (and profit) sharing arrangements. So even though Microsoft has "just" a 27% stake in OpenAI while my own math puts Amazon at a [roughly 22% stake](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/) in Anthropic (though this was before a recent funding round, so that's probably been diluted), and Google [has/had a 14% stake](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) in Anthropic, they view them as different types of investments from an accounting perspective. Again, I'm not sure either is particularly useful when it comes to reporting profits and losses – Microsoft didn't actually lose any of their money due to OpenAI's losses just as Google and Amazon didn't make any actual money due to Anthropic's mark up in valuation – but it is what it is. Just be mindful when you see [these massive profit gains](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/10/30/apple-q4-results?ref=spyglass.org) (or hits) in the quarterly reports. **One more thing:** You may have also noticed [Meta's massive one-time profit hit this quarter](https://www.wsj.com/tech/metaplatforms-meta-q3-earnings-report-2025-e0666e9c?ref=spyglass.org), which they attributed to a change in future tax liability due to the "Big Beautiful Bill", and were wondering why the rest of Big Tech didn't fall victim to this change and charge as well – I know I was! That, it seems, stems from the fact that Meta's peers are better insulated from such changes because they all operate (at least with footprints in different countries and where IP is held) more globally, and have taken steps in advance to dampen such effects... --- **Update May 21, 2026**: A further look into this issue thanks to NVIDIA's massive recent earnings... [NVIDIA’s Profit CrownJensen Huang just took the throne from Apple, at least in the US…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-21--2026--10_49_43-AM-790517c3a1d1654f8ab4a5dae05d53a9fccefc63db10d690c6a3df83d3eb5461.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-profit/) ### Apple Services Guns for the iPhone Business URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-services-business-iphone/ Last updated: 2025-12-10T09:35:54.000Z [ Apple Tops $100B in Services Revenue The high-margin unit has doubled in size over the past five years ![](https://images.seeklogo.com/logo-png/5/1/ft-logo-png_seeklogo-58048.png) Financial Times Tim Bradshaw & Michael Acton ![](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/ftcms%3A77fad0ff-4bb6-431d-ba8d-1380d9775e10?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=2) ](https://www.ft.com/content/3687fab7-3aea-4f81-9616-ed3d1f7be5b8?ref=spyglass.org) Earlier this week, ahead of Apple's earnings: > Apple is set to top $100bn in annual revenues from its services business for the first time this year, despite mounting legal and regulatory pressure on its App Store. > > The services unit — which includes iCloud, Apple Pay and AppleCare insurance — is expected to deliver annual revenues of $108.6bn in the year to last month, according to analysts’ consensus estimates from Visible Alpha, up around 13 per cent from the year before. > > If Apple hits those numbers when it reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results this week, that would make its services division alone larger than the entire annual sales of Walt Disney, Tesla or Tencent this year. Well, they *surpassed* the expectations on Services, [coming in at $28.8B](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/business/apple-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org) for the quarter. So yes, they're well ahead of the $100B run rate. And so yes, that business – again, just Services – is now set to be bigger than Disney, Tesla, and all but around 40 companies in [the *Fortune 500*](https://fortune.com/ranking/fortune500/?ref=spyglass.org), which is wild. > Services are forecast to make up more than 30 per cent of Apple’s revenues by the end of the decade, when the unit’s sales could be as much as $175bn, according to Visible Alpha estimates. > > By comparison, the iPhone makes up around half of Apple’s expected $415bn in total annual sales in its 2025 fiscal year, with smartphone growth [expected](https://www.ft.com/content/be3f6853-286b-4296-9cef-fd0a9da624f8?ref=spyglass.org) to be around 4 per cent. The segment should be way over 30% of revenues by then – probably past 40% if current trends hold. In fact, the division is on pace to surpass the iPhone business around a decade from now, in the mid-2030s. There's a lot that can and will change by then, but that includes a lot that could change [even more in Services favor](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/), including if Apple [moves further into advertising](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/), which is already [in the works](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-26/what-s-next-for-the-ipad-pro-iphone-17-pro-like-vapor-chamber-apple-maps-ads-mh7nq39h?cmpid=BBD102625%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251026&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron). And AI will be a big wildcard there, of course. It could supercharge Apple Services, or it could *hurt* the company if they [can't get their act together](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). It could, of course, also boost hardware sales if it's used more as a device upsell and not a Services upsell (it will undoubtedly be used as both). Of course, it's likely that Services is *already* ahead of the iPhone in one key metric: profitability: > Digital goods and subscriptions command a high profit margin — even more than Apple’s premium-priced hardware. Gross margins for services are expected to hit 75 per cent in the most recent financial year, Visible Alpha data suggests, compared to 40 per cent for the iPhone. That has helped Apple to steadily improve its overall gross margin from 38 per cent in 2020 to around 47 per cent this year. In fact, Services remain close to surpassing the profit of *all of Apple's devices*, *combined*, [as Jason Snell has been tracking over at *Six Colors*](https://sixcolors.com/post/2025/10/charts-apple-caps-off-best-fiscal-year-with-q4-record/?ref=spyglass.org) for some time now. That could happen at some point next year – likely in Q3. Yes, a change to the App Store model, which is under [ever-increasing pressure](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/) around the world, could change all of these equations. But arguably more important was [the saving of the Google Search payments](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/). And we'll see [if/how those change in the Age of AI](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/)... Regardless, it's inevitable that Apple becomes a Services company, at least from a bottom-line perspective. And one day from a top-line perspective too. They'll always tout [the importance of the hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) (and broader software), but they'll also [need to keep growing](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) the business and that will continue to mainly come from the growth of Services. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Adds ‘Apple Ads’It’s inevitable that Apple pushes more fully into advertising eventually…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-493.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_newspaper_advertisement_with_a_big_Apple_logo_on_it_-_31ba7e0c-e2e9-4bee-b962-8caec9e81a91_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/) [On Her Majesty’s Secret ServicesApple reports second quarter resultsApple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter ended March 30, 2024.Apple Newsroom Tim Cook did not bury the lede in the press release for Apple’s Q2 results: “Today Apple is reporting revenue of $90.8 billion for the March quarter, including![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-494.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-05-03-at-10.46.52-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) [Apple and Google Are So BackThe famous frenemies seems awfully aligned again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-496.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-7.19.11---PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) [Apple’s Practical FightAt its core, the DoJ’s case against Apple seemingly would seek to undo a lot of what makes the iPhone the iPhone. Which is equal parts worrisome, weird, and wild. And so at the highest level, of course Apple is going to fight back against this. At the same time,![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-497.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apple-with-Sword-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/) [HBO Would Bolster and/or Buoy Apple ServicesApple wants to bolster Apple TV+, but may \*need\* to buoy Services…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-495.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/House-of-Dragon-Dragonrider-Header-1-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) ### OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their Stake URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-stake-pbc/ Last updated: 2025-12-10T09:35:04.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-28--2025--08_44_31-PM-3.png) Looks like [an IPO is back](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) on the menu [boys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lco9Ki-5qfQ&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org)! Actually, probably a number of [mysterious "new ideas" for financing](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) well before that happens. Because lord knows that OpenAI will need it. At this point, it's clear [that hundreds of billions – if not *trillions*](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) – will be needed to push the company [to AGI (or bust)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). And now they have a much cleaner path towards at least those financing goals because guess what? *There is now actual equity for sale*. Not just the nebulous promise of future profits. Yes, [OpenAI is finally converting](https://openai.com/index/built-to-benefit-everyone/?ref=spyglass.org) into a for-profit. Well, sort of. Technically, a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) that is still actually controlled by a non-profit – now called the "OpenAI Foundation". [It's not exactly](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) the structure that [OpenAI wanted](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit/), but it's the one that works. At least for the states that have to sign off here. And Microsoft. Speaking of, following [the strange announcement](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) of an agreement to agree to an agreement a few weeks back, today [Microsoft is back with a far longer post](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/10/28/the-next-chapter-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org) on the matter. The key framing is clearly to let the world know that they signed off on this new structure. And for as vague as all the numbers surrounding OpenAI and Microsoft have been to date, they're very specific here: > First, Microsoft supports the OpenAI board moving forward with formation of a public benefit corporation (PBC) and recapitalization. Following the recapitalization, Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis, inclusive of all owners – employees, investors, and the OpenAI Foundation. Excluding the impact of OpenAI’s recent funding rounds, Microsoft held a 32.5 percent stake on an as-converted basis in the OpenAI for-profit. That last bit is particularly amusing. I assume it's in there just to let everyone (and their shareholders) know that [they were going to get](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) that rumored 33% stake, but the most recent crazy amounts of money coming into OpenAI diluted it down to "roughly 27 percent". Thank you for the clarification there, Microsoft. Actually, I really do appreciate it because it proves that [my guesstimate from just over a year ago](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/) was, well, spot-on. Specifically, I tried to [back into a would-be cap table for OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) upon conversion into a for-profit. While Microsoft technically had the aforementioned rights to 49% of OpenAI's profits (after a 75% share of those profits until they recouped their investments), it simply didn't seem reasonable or tenable that this would translate 1-to-1 into equity. And it's quite possible that Microsoft wouldn't even *want* such high ownership – which sounds weird, until you consider the regulatory pressure they'd be under owning just about half of the world's most important AI company. It's the same strange situation that [caused them to step back from their board observer role](https://spyglass.org/openai-board-apple-microsoft/) (after Apple [perhaps forced their hand](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-board/) in trying to [negotiate their own stake](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/) in OpenAI – one which they [backed away from at the last minute](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/)). Anyway, in simply trying to think through a reasonable equity stake for Microsoft given their $13B or so in early commitments which not only kept OpenAI afloat (after their main benefactor up until that point, co-founder Elon Musk, turned his back on and his wallet off for them) but allowed them to thrive with Big Tech compute power for a then-small startup. And, of course, what Microsoft might think is a meaningful stake for that backing, since they would have to sign off on any conversion. So 33% seemed like the sweet spot, and it was. It's also, I should note. A larger stake than almost any VC owns in any company from an early round of financing. And certainly a lot more than any VC owns in any AI company. This ended up being a fantastic deal for Microsoft from a pure investment perspective – at least so far. And that's why [it was always especially wild to me](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) that [Microsoft kept trying to distance themselves](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) from OpenAI. I get that they felt [burned by](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1726634719826362629?ref=spyglass.org) the Sam Altman coup (and specifically the fact that it happened without a heads up), but this deal will go down as a textbook example, I suspect quite literally, of how a multi-trillion dollar company under intense regulatory scrutiny could essentially co-develop the next most important industry by doing it [at arms-length](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1726906639901774242?ref=spyglass.org) with a non-controlled startup. Does anyone think Microsoft could have developed AI in-house by themselves? Even if they could overcome all the usual [*Innovator's Dilemma*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FInnovator%27s%5FDilemma?ref=spyglass.org) issues, there would have been too much regulatory pressure (certainly before the Trump administration came into power). Just look at Google. Which had all the pieces in place – and, in fact, *had all of the key inventors of what underpins LLMs in house* – and they still fumbled the bag out of the gate. [It's not hard to see why](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/), and the same issues would have fallen on Microsoft, which, honestly, wouldn't have even gotten that far. Both Google and Microsoft are now are [where they are](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/) with [their own internal projects](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) because OpenAI cleared ([and showed](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/)) the way forward. And Microsoft made that possible! And so now they own a stake worth "approximately $135B" as a result. And if OpenAI really does achieve AGI, [it could be worth trillions](https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/). It could be worth more than Microsoft one day! That sounds hyperbolic, and it probably will be. But there's at least a chance that it isn't. And this conversion gives that chance substantially better odds. Anyway, OpenAI's blog post on the matter is largely about how well capitalized the non-profit will be under this new structure, with that stake worth "approximately $130 billion" (which seems purposefully set up to be just below Microsoft's stake – unless it's the exact same and they just didn't coordinate on their talking points!?), and a $25B initial commitment of capital. In fact, the post doesn't even mention Microsoft! And that's hardly surprising since once they got Microsoft to sign off, the real case they had to make was to California (where OpenAI operates) and Delaware (where OpenAI is incorporated) to make sure their AGs signed off on this new structure. And they're not in the business of protecting Microsoft, they're all about protecting the non-profit and tangentially, the tax-payers of their states. But Microsoft's blog post has the real deal meat. Beyond the above, we have actually quite clear bullet points! All around the following notion: > The agreement preserves key elements that have fueled this successful partnership – meaning OpenAI remains Microsoft’s frontier model partner and Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity until Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). > > It also refines and adds new provisions that enable each company to independently continue advancing innovation and growth. To quickly take the points one-by-one: - Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. Before, OpenAI's board had the right to make such a declaration (in consultation with Microsoft). Which obviously was a huge conflict of interest. How an "independent expert panel" will be able to define AGI when the rest of the world – [including all of these companies](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) – cannot definitely still feels like a problem. But there's at least better structure around the decision now. Who is on this panel? - Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now include models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. This is a two-year extension from the prior deal and negates [the AGI clause](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) that severed such ties if and when AGI was declared. That's a big win for Microsoft, obviously. - Microsoft’s IP rights to research, defined as the confidential methods used in the development of models and systems, will remain until either the expert panel verifies AGI or through 2030, whichever is first. Research IP includes, for example, models intended for internal deployment or research only. Beyond that research IP does not include model architecture, model weights, inference code, finetuning code, and any IP related to data center hardware and software; and Microsoft retains these non-Research IP rights. This is more of a behind-the-scenes element of the above. Basically, while Microsoft can still use the models and products through 2032, their visibility into *exactly* "how the sausage is made" still ends in 2030 (or when the above expert panel declares AGI). But the "exactly" caveat is also key because Microsoft will still have some extended rights here with model weights, for example. OpenAI simply better protects their "research IP" for the long term with this. - Microsoft’s IP rights now exclude OpenAI’s consumer hardware. [Jony Ive and his io team](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) say "thank you" for this one. As they can now work on [their "anti iPhone"](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) (not a phone, but [a device](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) that they hope will lessen the addiction to smartphones) in peace. - OpenAI can now jointly develop some products with third parties. API products developed with third parties will be exclusive to Azure. Non-API products may be served on any cloud provider. This is a nice win for OpenAI, getting more flexibility to partner with others on products – but any APIs they build will still have to flow through Azure, so Microsoft continues to get some benefit in that scenario. - Microsoft can now independently pursue AGI alone or in partnership with third parties. And this is key for [Microsoft's own AI team](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/), which has spent months and months framing it as if they were happy to let OpenAI do all the heavy lifting while they did smaller stuff – [when really](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/), *they just weren't allowed to work towards AGI* under the previous agreement. Now they can. - If Microsoft uses OpenAI’s IP to develop AGI, prior to AGI being declared, the models will be subject to compute thresholds; those thresholds are significantly larger than the size of systems used to train leading models today. It would be sort of wild if Microsoft gets to AGI first – and does so thanks in part to OpenAI's IP. This is trying to cover that situation, which seems like it will still be a massive issue if that happens. Especially now that Microsoft would be unnaturally compute constrained by OpenAI in that situation?! Anyway, it's obviously unlikely. But Microsoft's AI group will be trying to go for it, clearly! - The revenue share agreement remains until the expert panel verifies AGI, though payments will be made over a longer period of time. This seems like a way to lower the upfront revenue hit that OpenAI has to give back to Microsoft, which is what OpenAI [has been aiming for](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) and [modeling in](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/#update) their internal documents (this percentage going down over time). Still, it's a win for Microsoft that it's remaining in any capacity. - OpenAI has contracted to purchase an incremental $250B of Azure services, and Microsoft will no longer have a right of first refusal to be OpenAI’s compute provider. What's $250B more in commits when *trillions* are being thrown out there? It's a small price to pay in [theoretical money](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) to remove the ROFR on every single cloud/data center deal OpenAI strikes... - OpenAI can now provide API access to US government national security customers, regardless of the cloud provider. This helps both OpenAI and the US government, obviously, as Microsoft is no longer a bottleneck for deals. Though it's interesting that they specifically call out "API access" which is also obviously the thing Microsoft is protecting most dearly in the other points above. So I guess this is a clear carve-out. - OpenAI is now able to release open weight models that meet requisite capability criteria. Something which, of course, [OpenAI has already started doing recently](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/). This alleviates any tension with Microsoft worried they're giving away IP that should belong to (or be protected by) Microsoft, it seems. So yeah, there's a lot in there. And, you have to suspect, even more finer details that the companies *aren't* sharing, but will undoubtedly get reported on over time. It's no wonder the two sides took forever to hammer this out, and now they can finally play nicely again. At least until tensions inevitably arise around the margins of all of the above points. Which will [obviously keep happening](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). But that's for another day. For now, we welcome Microsoft as [the newest Big Tech player](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) with an *official* [massive equity stake owner in Big AI](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/). OpenAI and Microsoft [are so back](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=Microsoft%20and%20OpenAI%20kiss%20and%20make%20up%2C%20or%20break%20up). **One more thing:** Re-reading [my post on the bizarre pre-announcements from Microsoft and OpenAI six weeks ago](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/), I think I nailed this all pretty well, actually (if you'll forgive the long excerpt): > Alleviating the Microsoft portion of this situation is an important step, but not the only one here. But it should help the company continue to make the case for the PBC transition, which they had hoped would happen this year, but reportedly was pushed into next year because of the impasse with Microsoft. Again, that impasse is now being cleared – well, they're working on it. To me, that suggests OpenAI is very much trying to make this happen this year still. > > And yes, contractually they're incentivized to do this because as has been widely reported, OpenAI's [new big benefactor, SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/), had the right not to fund the remainder of their portion of [the $40B fundraise](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) if the company didn't transition by the end of the year. Now there's almost no way SoftBank was going to back out of that agreement regardless – I mean, [they're buying up secondary shares](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/openai-boosts-size-of-secondary-share-sale-to-10point3-billion.html?ref=spyglass.org) right now at $500B, which is significantly higher than the shares they're buying in the primary transaction. [They'd be crazy](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/seeing-jensens-shadow?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7an-update-on-the-openaimicrosoft-talks) not to take the automatic markup of their money which they can still invest at $300B! > > But we're too in the weeds now. The key is that solving this Microsoft situation was perhaps the main element in trying to get a transition done any time soon. And even without the SoftBank deal pressure, the pressure from those states is now far more acute. One imagines that OpenAI wants to get this done quickly before they're sucked into endless political hearings about AI's role in the mental health crisis – which is clearly about to happen. > > If that's true, one has to wonder what OpenAI conceded to Microsoft here to get them on board, fast. Again, they're not saying because they're still negotiating, but clearly a big part of it is "The Clause". That is, the stipulation in the original contract that Microsoft would lose access to OpenAI's technology if the company achieved AGI. It's decidedly more complicated than that, including in the who gets to decide what constitutes "AGI" (namely OpenAI's board, which is now a totally different board, composed of people will completely different backgrounds, than the one that was supposed to be determining it), and if Microsoft retained access to "older" AI technology, but the high-level was clearly a problem for Microsoft. > > And it keeps coming up because Sam Altman on down has kept hinting that the company may be close to achieving "AGI". It was clearly pissing off Satya Nadella, who made that more or less known, and so [talk suddenly shifted to "superintelligence"](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/), which is [totally different, you see](https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/). > > At the same time, a lesser known part of "The Clause" apparently also blocked Microsoft itself from going after AGI. This undoubtedly didn't matter to the company at the time of the agreement, but since then – well, things have changed. Including "the blip" – the brief moment in time when Altman was ousted from OpenAI, only to be quickly reinstated with the help of Nadella – which torpedoed the trust between the two sides and led to Microsoft inventing the ["hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/) process (born out of the way they almost hired all of OpenAI during said blip) [to take on Inflection AI talent](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) and [bring DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman on board](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) to lead [new AI efforts internal to Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/). As for my guess as to what would happen: > "The Clause" "remains" but, it's modified. And my guess would be that it's modified such that Microsoft is also now free to pursue AGI and/or superintelligence, and anything else they wish to call it. I'm also guessing they'll also retain some form of access to OpenAI's technologies beyond 2030 – the other aspect of the contract Microsoft had reportedly wanted to change. Again, Microsoft seemingly holds the cards here with the sign-off sword in hand and with all the other issues swirling around OpenAI... All in exchange for a 33% stake. Now a "roughly" 27% stake. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI Attempts to Have Their For-Profit Cake and Eat It TooOpenAI leaves the for-profit path, maybe, with a trail of questions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-490.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_cake_baked_with_money_realistic_looking_with_a_slick__40636e6b-83b4-4633-83e7-2f5c44475e8c_1-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-488.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?A sense of tension between the two sides is inescapable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-492.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-surreal-image-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-489.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) [The War of the AI RosesMicrosoft and OpenAI increasingly make strange bedfellows…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-491.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/roses_banner-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) [Microsoft & OpenAI: A Love/Hate StoryThe ongoing epic tale that has shaped the current state of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-487.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_microsoft_and_openAI_bots_battling_--v_7_a8f62b24-f9c2-48d1-abf7-315326ac4a05_2-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) ### Netflix's New Goal May Be to Buy HBO Before HBO Can Be Bought URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-hbo-deal/ Last updated: 2025-12-07T13:49:25.000Z [ Warner Bros. Discovery Sale Pits Billionaires Against Each Other Its CEO tries to head off Paramount's offer. BTS plans its biggest tour ever. ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Lucas Shaw ![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iXXjdpdq8Sj8/v11/2000x1333.webp) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-26/warner-bros-discovery-sale-pits-billionaires-against-each-other?ref=spyglass.org) As expected, the overtures [from Paramount Skydance to buy Warner Bros Discovery](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) is bringing everyone out of the woodwork to also look at the deal. And while it doesn't sound like anyone is as serious as Paramount head David Ellison right now, WBD head David Zaslav would sure like to spur on some other bidders: > Zaslav [doesn’t want to do the deal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-12/warner-bros-is-said-to-rebuff-paramount-takeover-approach?ref=spyglass.org) — at least not at that price — and fears the Ellisons will sway shareholders to their side. So, nearly three years after the creation of Warner Bros. Discovery – an unsuccessful stretch that led to this precarious moment — Zaslav is trying to reclaim control over his company and his narrative. > > The 65-year-old media mogul projected confidence on the call. Apple and Amazon are interested, Zaslav told staff. And, if you read the press, you’d know that Netflix and Comcast are as well. Whether any of those companies will actually bid for all or part of Warner Bros. is still unclear. But the company will now [open its books](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-22/warner-bros-to-begin-sharing-financial-data-with-bidders?ref=spyglass.org) to any interested parties, hoping to find another buyer or force the Ellisons to offer considerably more. Shaw's report frames Paramount as the most likely buyer followed by Comcast. But the tech players here remain wildcards. Apple and Netflix have both publicly downplayed the interest, but they're also clearly at least *somewhat* interested here. Certainly interested enough to have some conversations: > For all of Zaslav’s confidence, executives at Warner Bros. aren’t sure Apple or Amazon will take a real run at the company. Entertainment is a marketing expense for those companies, which make most of their money from consumer electronics, e-commerce and cloud computing. Like every other major technology company, they are more concerned with [winning at AI](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-18/how-apple-intelligence-and-siri-ai-went-so-wrong?ref=spyglass.org) than the Oscars. > > Apple services boss [Eddy Cue](https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/7325661?ref=spyglass.org) has told people he would at least like to look. Amazon media boss [Mike Hopkins](https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/17701642?ref=spyglass.org) is going to take a look as well. > > But Apple has generally eschewed major M&A, and it’s hard to imagine CEO [Tim Cook](https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/14014370?ref=spyglass.org) explaining to shareholders why his company’s biggest deal ever is for a shrinking media company that would provide a marginal lift to its core business. Amazon, at least, has already made a [major investment](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-26/amazon-agrees-to-buy-mgm-film-studio-for-8-45-billion?ref=spyglass.org) in media. It does feel like in a perfect world, [Eddy Cue would swoop in to scoop up just the Warner Bros studio plus HBO Max streaming service](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/). He wanted to buy HBO years ago but was rebuffed. And now with those parts of the company [on the verge of being split off](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/warner-bros-discovery-splits-in-two?ref=spyglass.org), perhaps he was sitting on the sidelines just waiting for that to happen... But this Paramount offer may make it so that he can't wait. But that's an issue because it would have to be a massive deal to buy the entirety of WBD – something probably north of $75B to get it done ahead of Paramount. And are Apple shareholders going to love that at a time when all of Wall Street views them as behind in AI and waiting for them to [make a deal there](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/)? I'm not saying that's right or wrong – in fact, [you could certainly argue](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) that Apple *shouldn't* do some massive AI deal right now, especially with prices way overheated (but you can also make the case for such a deal [simply to re-wire the internal culture and building mentality](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) for the future, if you believe AI is the future). Regardless, if the stock market opens one day to Apple having spent almost $100B on an movie studio, a streaming service, and some television channels... they're probably not going to be happy. And that's a reality Tim Cook has to weigh here, no matter how much Cue might love to get his hands on HBO (and how much that [might actually make sense for Apple TV](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) – the artist [formally known as 'Apple TV+'](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) as they go for true streaming scale). Shareholders of Amazon might be even more annoyed to see the company trying to buy WBD after the MGM deal [hasn't exactly gone swimmingly](https://spyglass.org/license-to-shop/), or done much of anything to help their bottom line – and James Bond's mission in that regard [got billions of dollars more expensive](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) recently for Amazon to get full control. This is another company with some real long term questions around AI still at the moment. One that just laid off, um, [30,000 workers](https://www.techmeme.com/251027/p30?ref=spyglass.org#a251027p30). Netflix? Well, this is not the type of deal that Netflix does. But that doesn't mean they should never do this type of deal. It's certainly more directly in their wheelhouse versus the other tech players... > While Netflix looks at potential deals, it doesn’t pursue them. It built up its own studio while watching rivals waste time and resources on failed mergers and integrations. > > This time feels a little different. Hastings is spending more time on a ski resort than Netflix, and co-CEO [Ted Sarandos](https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/4812832?ref=spyglass.org) has told friends he is interested in Warner Bros. While Sarandos doesn’t want cable networks, he has described the company’s assets as an opportunity. He would love to own its intellectual property, including HBO’s. (It would be ironic if Netflix, which once modeled itself after HBO, bought the company and essentially shut down its network.) Not only has Sarandos apparently told friends this – [he said as much on Netflix's earnings call](https://deadline.com/2025/10/netflix-ceos-ted-sarandos-greg-peters-weigh-in-on-media-ma-with-wbd-in-play-1236593508/?ref=spyglass.org)! His comments made it pretty clear that if they could just buy Warner Bros and HBO, Netflix would be interested. But if it comes with the other WBD baggage, they'd be less interested. So, the same boat Apple is in (and undoubtedly Amazon too – probably even Comcast as the TV stations would be a regulatory nightmare for them, but they need a streaming service and content to bulk up Peacock into a real player). So basically, it sounds like if Warner Bros Discovery is able to split themselves into two early next year, there will be a lot of bidders for the studio + streamer part of the business. But this Paramount offer has thrown that path for a loop – which is undoubtedly exactly why they did it: they're far more likely to win against the above larger players if they can dictate that the terms are taking on the entire turkey, not just the good bits. So can Zaslav figure out a way to just sell Warner Bros and/or HBO Max ahead of that split? The problem with waiting is that Ellison is undoubtedly going to go hostile. And if they have the money... Forget Netflix's goal to [become](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) HBO before HBO can become Netflix. The goal now may be for Netflix to *buy* HBO before someone else does... --- **Update December 5, 2025**: Well, well, well... [The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-738.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_lsa28wlsa28wlsa2.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-buying-warner-bros/) --- **Update December 6, 2025**: Further thoughts... [Oh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-750.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_wi3l0nwi3l0nwi3l-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-warner-bros-hollywood-concerns/) ### Apple Delays the Silly Big Foldable iPad URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-silly-big-foldable-ipad/ Last updated: 2025-12-07T13:47:35.000Z [ Apple’s Planned Foldable iPad With 18-inch Screen Hits Development Snags Apple Inc.'s effort to reinvent the iPad by adding a giant foldable screen has hit development hurdles, potentially delaying the planned launch. ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Mark Gurman ![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ieVG5oGihUjA/v0/2000x1334.webp) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/apple-s-planned-foldable-ipad-with-18-inch-screen-hits-development-snags?ref=spyglass.org) On one hand, [I always thought](https://spyglass.org/foldable-iphone-ipad/) it might make sense for Apple's first "foldable" device to be a tablet, given that the product line is less critical (and thus, more open to experiments) than the iPhone lineup. And the fact that Apple actually *has* a tablet business with the iPad, whereas many other companies merely *think* they do. On the other hand, I thought it would be a *small* foldable tablet, not a "giant" one. That device, perhaps unsurprisingly, is having development issues, it seems: > Apple Inc.’s effort to reinvent the iPad by adding a giant foldable screen has hit development hurdles, potentially delaying the planned launch. > > The company has been working on the device — projected to cost around $3,000 — for several years and had most recently aimed for a 2028 release. But engineering challenges tied to weight, features and display technology have pushed its potential debut to 2029 or later, according to people familiar with the matter. Remember when an analyst [thought](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/03/16/apple-foldables-mass-production-2026/?ref=spyglass.org) such a device would be launching alongside the 'iPhone Fold' in 2026? Yeah... lol. [As I wrote in March](https://spyglass.org/foldable-giant-ipad/): > Back to Pu's other foldable he thinks is coming in 2026 (which is not coming in 2026). Even if Apple could figure out a way to create an 18.8" foldable device, how much do we think that would cost? The 13" iPad Pro starts at $1,299\. [My guess is that](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) the 'iPhone Fold' – again, with a 7.8" screen – will cost at least $1,999 to start. And quite likely more than that. An 18.8" foldable device would undoubtedly be at least $2,999 and probably a lot more than that. Perhaps even beyond the Vision Pro's $3,499 range. [And what's the market for such a device?](https://mgs.blog/lgs-foldable-laptop-83a7884eed58?ref=spyglass.org) > Yes, many Macs are above that price range, but that's mainly for professionals. Are professionals going to use a first-generation foldable touchscreen? Will it feature a fully touch-based keyboard when folded? I mean, eventually, sure. But not in 2026\. And probably not 2027 either. And probably not 2028 either. Nor 2029... I'm guessing such a device, if it *ever* sees the light of day, is more a next decade thing. And that's perhaps, in part, because [Apple's actual first 'Fold'](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) is thought to be an iPhone that unfolds into something [more akin in size to an iPad mini](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/). So it is sort of a smaller foldable tablet, in a way. Though we'll see how Apple markets it... But one thing it's not, per Gurman's report: > Apple is working with [Samsung Display Co.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/0795125D:KS?ref=spyglass.org) to develop the roughly 18-inch panel for the device, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the work isn’t public. The screen minimizes the crease seen on foldable displays, matching an approach that Apple is also using with its upcoming foldable iPhone. I still can't believe Apple is trying to go with 18 inches here. It just seems like it would be comically large, even for a foldable. I mean, I guess that would be cool as a portable external monitor. But who wants/needs a tablet that large? Would it be meant to be used with an external keyboard and trackpad when fully unfolded? And while I know the Huawei "MateBook" (lol) [and others](https://mgs.blog/lgs-foldable-laptop-83a7884eed58?ref=spyglass.org) exist as a sort of half-fold tablet/laptop thing, this also just seems like it could be [the TouchBar debacle](https://500ish.com/a-touching-ending-and-return-555bc95ff6ad?ref=spyglass.org) on steroids for Apple. > Unlike the [foldable iPhone](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-20/apple-s-2026-foldable-iphone-samsung-comparison-m5-ipad-pro-dual-front-cameras?ref=spyglass.org), prototypes of the new tablet — internally code-named J312 — don’t include an external display. When closed, the device resembles a Mac laptop, with an aluminum enclosure on both sides. When opened, it’s about the size of a 13-inch laptop. > > Developing the technology for an 18-inch foldable display has proven especially complex and costly, pushing estimated prices to roughly triple that of a 13-inch iPad Pro. Like that model, the foldable tablet would use the OLED standard. The technology, short for organic light-emitting diode, allows for more vibrant graphics and thinner displays. > > Engineers are also concerned about the weight of current foldable iPad prototypes. While today’s iPad Pro ranges from about 1 to 1.3 pounds depending on size, test units of the foldable product weigh around 3.5 pounds. That’s roughly the same as a MacBook Pro. Okay. So it's a MacBook/iPad [hybrid](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-pro-macos/) that's decidedly thicker and heavier and more expensive and undoubtedly would be more of a challenge to operate as a laptop *and* as a tablet. Sounds great. But hey, *the entire thing* is a touch screen. Cool? Maybe for a demo, undoubtedly a great feat of engineering, but for actual usage? Look, I get [the whole](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/) "they would have asked for a faster horse" issue here, but really, who is this product for? [I mean](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/), my god [just let us dual boot macOS on the current iPads Pro](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/). Yes, iPadOS [keeps inching closer](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/) to macOS, but it's sort of turned the iPad [into a "Mac Jr."](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) at this point. Obviously, Apple would be far better suited to simply ship a touchscreen MacBook – [which it sure sounds like](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%BB%20Touchscreen%20MacBook%20Pros) they're on the verge of doing next year. Not in the 2030s. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Analysts Fight to Reclaim the Vaporware ThroneAre \*two\* Apple foldable devices coming in 2026? No way.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-485.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-18-10.30.58---A-futuristic-giant-foldable-iPad-with-a-sleek--ultra-thin-design.-The-tablet-is-unfolded--showing-a-large-seamless-display-with-vibrant-colors.-The-hi-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/foldable-giant-ipad/) [Thin Is In Before a Foldable Is OutGaming out some ‘iPhone Air’ and ‘iPhone Fold’ options…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-486.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_iphone_that_folds_like_a_book_--ar_21_--profil_2bb22a01-1fbc-4da3-afb3-40b387e43d7f_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) [Apple Invents a Laptop with a TouchscreenThe new iPad Pro is awesome. And a bit silly.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-482.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ipad3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/) [MacOS on the iPad: A Compromiseor: You Are Not Your Fucking iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-484.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/toast2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/) [iPadOS 26 Turns the iPad Into a Sort of ‘Mac Jr.’It’s not bad, but it’s also not really for me. Maybe that’s the point.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-483.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPadOS-26-WWDC_a.jpg-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) ### Microsoft's Halo Mary URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-halo-mary/ Last updated: 2026-02-24T12:15:40.000Z [ Xbox’s Prized Sci-Fi Franchise Is Heading to PlayStation As part of a strategic shift away from exclusivity, Microsoft is bringing Halo to Sony’s competing console for the first time. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) NYT Zachary Small ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/10/24/multimedia/24cul-xbox-strategy-cmqt/24cul-xbox-strategy-cmqt-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/arts/halo-playstation-microsoft-xbox.html?ref=spyglass.org) As someone who bought and played the original Xbox simply for access to *Halo*, it's hardly a surprise to me that they're remaster-chiefing that original version for the 25th anniversary. But *where* they're releasing it is truly wild: > Remaking a classic video game with modern technology to reach both nostalgic and new audiences has become commonplace in [an industry facing financial challenges](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/26/arts/video-games-graphics-budgets.html?ref=spyglass.org). > > So it was not a huge surprise when Microsoft announced on Friday that it would release an updated version of Halo: Combat Evolved next year, the influential game’s 25th anniversary. > > One detail, though, was astounding. > > The sci-fi franchise that has helped the company sell four generations of Xbox consoles and generate billions of dollars is coming to the Sony PlayStation, Microsoft’s direct competitor, for the first time. It is the equivalent of Disney letting Mickey Mouse roam Universal Studios. Yes, it's like that, but with guns. This is, of course, not an entirely new strategy for Microsoft – they've been slowly but surely releasing Xbox games onto other platforms for the past couple years or so. But this is *Halo*. The one franchise that truly set Xbox apart. Of course, that hasn't exactly worked for Microsoft over the past 25 years as they're still far behind Sony in the console race, and now once again behind Nintendo, who (re)found their footing with the Switch ([and Switch 2](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2-launch/)) after the Wii U stumble. At the same time: > It is an effort to reach more gamers and to maximize revenue after the company opened its wallet to acquire major studios. Microsoft spent [$69 billion on Activision Blizzard](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/technology/microsoft-activision-blizzard-deal-closes.html?ref=spyglass.org), which makes Call of Duty and Candy Crush, and [$7.5 billion on ZeniMax Media](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/technology/microsoft-zenimax-video-game-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org), whose portfolio includes The Elder Scrolls and Fallout. As of now, this sure looks like it will go down as one of the biggest blunders in Microsoft's history.[1](#one) *Call of Duty* and *Candy Crush* remain hits, but they're in no way moving the needles as Microsoft had clearly hoped. You don't spend $75B+ to be the third place player that's bleeding money. Obviously. So the shift has been to ["Xbox Everywhere"](https://spyglass.org/exbox/), but that's starting to feel like it's not going to work either – and that this *Halo* maneuver might be the last ditch effort to make it work. > Microsoft leaders hope that bringing its premier franchises to new audiences will ultimately attract more customers into the Xbox ecosystem. Booty said consumers no longer have a strong attachment to the actual devices they use to play games. > > “Our biggest competition isn’t another console,” he said, adding, “We are competing more and more with everything from TikTok to movies.” On paper that makes some sense. But in reality, that doesn't seem to be the case right now with PlayStation and Nintendo. It's more just that the console business hasn't been working *for Microsoft*. > There are signs the strategy is working. > > Between April and July, [six of the top 10 best-selling games](https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3lv6vqqhmyc2w?ref=spyglass.org) on Sony’s consoles were Microsoft properties. Near the top was Forza Horizon 5, four years after it was initially released for Xbox consoles. > > Microsoft declined to provide PlayStation 5 sales figures for Forza Horizon 5 and Gears of War: Reloaded, a remake that was released in August. Sony did not respond to a request for comment. > > By releasing the first Halo and Gears of War titles on the PlayStation 5 decades later, Microsoft is introducing lucrative franchises to loyal Sony gamers. (Games in both franchises, including [a 2011 remake of Halo: Combat Evolved](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/gamesblog/2011/nov/14/halo-combat-evolved-anniversary-review?ref=spyglass.org), have been playable on computers.) That exposure may pay dividends if Microsoft brings Gears of War: E-Day, which has a 2026 release date, and Halo Infinite’s eventual follow-up to the PlayStation 5. Okay, but does Microsoft really want to be just *a games publisher*? Of course not! > Any full-price sales on Sony’s console would be particularly important for Microsoft. > > Tens of millions of Xbox owners subscribe to Game Pass, a subscription service whose highest tier provides immediate access to all Microsoft-published games. The company [significantly raised that tier’s prices](https://kotaku.com/xbox-game-pass-price-change-hike-reaction-ultimate-2000630654?ref=spyglass.org) this month amid reports that its decision to include Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 as part of the subscription [cost the company $300 million in sales](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-03/xbox-s-game-pass-hike-shows-cost-of-lost-call-of-duty-sales?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc1OTUyNzI0MywiZXhwIjoxNzYwMTMyMDQzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUM0lWRFNHUFFROVIwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJGRUIzODlCNUI2ODI0RTY0QjY5MENEODE1RTBDREZGRCJ9.D1EObQzg2KlvqBoXPyEm5Yn-DznTYaVWC3okI5aX3AU&leadSource=uverify%20wall&ref=spyglass.org). A Microsoft official confirmed that the company was also conducting internal tests for free ad-supported cloud access to some games through [a program separate from Game Pass](https://www.theverge.com/report/791213/xbox-cloud-gaming-free-ad-supported-version?ref=spyglass.org). Yeah, [they're flailing about here](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20The%20Xbox%20%24360%20Era) trying to find an way to square this circle. But come on, clearly there is not going to be one. Microsoft will probably give it one more go with Xbox hardware ([something which is undoubtedly already well underway](https://www.theverge.com/news/803824/microsoft-xbox-sarah-bond-next-gen-xbox-console-pc?ref=spyglass.org)) and then we'll probably start to hear about a winding down of the whole thing. There's too much money to be spent on other initiatives like AI, etc. Unless putting *Halo* on PlayStation saves them in some way. Which it won't. It's a Halo Mary. And no one is answering the prayer. **One more thing:** [I think my take from nearly two years ago holds up well](https://spyglass.org/exbox/): > Feels like a terrible way to go into a new initiative. Microsoft should have more conviction in what they're doing, if they're going to do it. But it almost feels like they're acknowledging that nothing else has really worked to shift the company from [the distant third-place player](https://gamerant.com/ps5-xbox-series-x-s-2023-sales-comparison-data/?ref=spyglass.org) in the console market, so the new strategy now is just "Xbox everywhere" as they put it. > > But again, that strategy is a mess, at least right now. They sell Xbox consoles. Xbox Game Pass. Xbox games. And now games for other consoles. > > Yes, they've been doing the latter for a while due to acquisitions. And continuing to do that was [the key point](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/16/microsoft-and-sony-sign-deal-to-keep-activisions-call-of-duty-on-playstation.html?ref=spyglass.org) of the Activision Blizzard purchase. Microsoft already has to keep selling certain titles on other consoles, so now they're just trying it with their own as well, right? > > But how will that help Xbox, the console? The answer is that it won't. The best it can do is not hurt it further. And maybe that's the belief since the exclusive titles clearly weren't moving the needle in terms of Xbox console sales anyway. Okay, so why stay in that business? Unclear. And arguably more unclear now. Also: > But you know what Nintendo doesn't do? \*Release their games on other consoles.\* Sure, they have some mobile games now. But nothing on PlayStation and nothing on Xbox. And it's basically impossible to believe that they ever will. Again, their strategy works. Their IP moves the hardware. This is also what works for Sony. But per above, that hasn't been working for Microsoft, so they're seemingly now trying to change everything to know what the right way forward may be. But it's too muddled of a strategy with too many pieces moving at once for there to be much of a path to success here, would be my guess. Good guess. And finally, my footnote from the above: > Never stated in all this talk of the "end of exclusives" is that an exclusive is undoubtedly what put Xbox on the map in the first place: Halo. It's why I bought the first Xbox. Same with most of my friends at the time. Microsoft, for whatever reason, hasn't been able to really replicate that early success. Now they're trying. On PlayStation. --- **Update February 24, 2026**: A fitting (almost) end, perhaps... [ExboxMicrosoft will do one last Xbox push, but there’s probably not a longer path forward – unless AI saves the day; not in the way you think!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1033.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-24--2026--12_08_46-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-xbox/) --- 1 This is where Steve Ballmer can thank his lucky stars ([not his lucky Clippers](https://spyglass.org/los-angeles-titanics/)) that the Yahoo deal was blown up [back in the day](https://techcrunch.com/2009/07/21/microsoftyahoo-search-today-not-so-fast/?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) ### Anthropic's Big Tech Strategy Deepens... URL: https://spyglass.org/anthropic-google-tpu-deal/ Last updated: 2025-12-07T13:46:54.000Z [Google and Anthropic announce cloud deal worth tens of billions of dollarsWhile Google is powering Anthropic’s next phase of compute expansion, Amazon remains its most deeply embedded partner.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-36.ico)CNBCMacKenzie Sigalos![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/107244923-1684788591875-gettyimages-1251294457-PGONCHAR_7364.jpeg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/anthropic-google-cloud-deal-tpu.html?ref=spyglass.org) The massive deal, first reported a few days ago [by *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/anthropic-google-in-talks-on-cloud-deal-worth-tens-of-billions?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org) is now confirmed: > Anthropic and Google officially announced their cloud partnership Thursday, a deal that gives the artificial intelligence company access to up to one million of Google’s custom-designed Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs. > > The deal, which is worth tens of billions of dollars, is the company’s largest TPU commitment yet and is expected to bring well over a gigawatt of AI compute capacity online in 2026. There are a few interesting elements to this. First and foremost, this obviously deepens the Google/Anthropic relationship – one which was already pretty deep given [their 14% stake](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) (undoubtedly diluted below that now with Anthropic's [subsequent fundraises](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Anthropic%27s%20%2413B%20Round%20at%20%24183B), but still clearly sizable). But that relationship was not as deep as the one [Anthropic had with Amazon](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-golden-fork-amazon/) – in part because beyond just the equity (Amazon holds around a 22% stake in Anthropic, [by my backed-into estimates](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/)), there was also the deal to train the Claude models [using Amazon's Trainium chips](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-015/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Amazon%20Invests%20Another%20%244%20billion%20in%20Anthropic). This new deal perhaps equalizes that a bit. To that end, one has to wonder what Amazon thinks of this deal... But even more so than that, one has to wonder *what NVIDIA thinks of this deal*. Despite the Trainium usage, obviously most of Anthropic's training still runs through NVIDIA chips, just like everyone else. This Google TPU deal might not change that, but it certainly alters the picture even more. And, if [the reported backstory](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-open-ai-nvidia-deals-d10a6525?ref=spyglass.org) around why [the OpenAI/NVIDIA deal](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) came together is to be believed, Jensen Huang knocked on Sam Altman's door *specifically because* of [the reporting](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-convinces-openai-use-tpu-chips-win-nvidia?ref=spyglass.org) that OpenAI could do a deal with Google around using TPUs. Which is to say, Jensen doesn't seem to like the notion of his partners using TPUs! And you can see why if Google is [trying to scale them](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Google%20TPUs%20Move%20More%20Into%20NVIDIA%27s%20Lane) to compete directly with NVIDIA in the AI model training game (not to mention inference). And, well, this deal would seemingly be the largest such deal yet outside of Google itself. All of the parties involved will undoubtedly say the right things publicly here. That they're all capacity constrained and need more options to meed demand, etc. But come on, clearly this is awkward for both Amazon and NVIDIA. This also sets up a interesting new dichotomy between OpenAI and Anthropic. Obviously the former is also trying to [diversify](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/) their AI chip needs. And even if NVIDIA [convinced them](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) to shy away from TPUs, [they now have](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) [the AMD deal](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal) and [the partnership with Broadcom](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20The%20OpenAI/Broadcom%20Deal) to work on their own chips. And then there are the [massive data center projects](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/). OpenAI is [tied to trillions of dollars worth of them](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/). Anthropic? Not so much. And that's largely because they've been tied to Amazon and to a lesser extent, Google, for such needs. This new deal seemingly ramps up the Google element (unless their TPUs are going to run on another neocloud – [which is possible](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/anthropic-says-will-use-1-million-google-tpu-chips?ref=spyglass.org) but seems unlikely for this particular deal?). Anyway, just an interesting new wrinkle in the AI wars. Clearly Anthropic is taking a different approach and strategy – hardly surprising given that this is the ethos from which they were founded coming out of OpenAI! – but it remains sort of wild how increasingly wedded Anthropic is [to Big Tech](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) at the same time that OpenAI is sprinting to [diversify away from](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) their [Microsoft reliance](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). **One more thing:** It's not stated in the deal, but does the new agreement with Google also have some sort of further equity component? It *sounds* like Anthropic will just pay Google for this TPU usage, but *how* exactly will they pay them? Is it just a part of the ongoing tranched investments (that both Google and Amazon have committed to in the past)? There are undoubtedly other shoes to drop here...[1](#one) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Big Tech’s Big Stakes in Big AIAs the valuations get bigger, the stakes go higher, quite literally…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-478.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_robber_baron_with_a_big_bag_of_money_cartoon_--ar_169_e72b7e01-2bf9-46b1-9626-15fb7c670a82_0-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) [The Curious Case of Amazon’s Anthropic StakeUsing Google’s stake to back into Amazon’s likely much larger stake…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-479.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_exploring_in_the_amazon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_87eed52b-3793-4015-a948-401814463d3c_2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) [Big Tech’s Big Hedge with Big AILarge investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technology…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-480.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) --- 1 To that end, [this tweet from a week ago](https://x.com/zephyr%5Fz9/status/1978834774786445562?ref=spyglass.org) (well before this deal was even rumored, let along announced) could be nonsense, but it piqued my interesting enough to save it (given that [OpenAI is now thought to \*not\* be the $10B customer](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/#:~:text=With%20their%20partnership%20officially%20out%20there%2C%20Broadcom%20says%20OpenAI%20was%20not%20the%20%2410B%20new%20customer%20cited%20in%20their%20most%20recent%20earnings.%20So%20the%20mystery%20continues...%20Who%20could%20it%20be%3F%20Apple%3F))... > Broadcom's 5th customer ($10B) isn't Apple or XAI > It's Anthropic. They won't design a new chip. > They will be buying TPUs from Broadcom. > Expect Anthropic to announce a funding round from Google soon. It's not exactly right per the above, but it's not exactly wrong either... [↩](#) ### Netflix Thaws Their Theatrical Stance URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theater-stance/ Last updated: 2025-12-02T22:20:16.000Z [Netflix’s ‘Stranger Things’ Series Finale Officially Coming to Theaters, Despite Previous StatementsThe streamer has confirmed that the hit show’s finale will be in theaters after previously seeming to shoot down the idea amid the show’s creators, The Duffers Brothers, defecting to Paramount: “They would have been nuts not to do it.”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-29.png)The Hollywood ReporterJames Hibberd![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/StrangerThings_S5_0011.jpg)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/netflix-stranger-things-finale-theaters-tickets-1236408174/?ref=spyglass.org) Well, well, [well](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). It sure looks like [Netflix's previously strong stance against theatrical](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) releases is [thawing faster](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) than the icebergs these days. To the point where they're even now putting their *shows* in cinemas: > [Netflix](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/netflix/?ref=spyglass.org)‘s previously stated plan not to release the series finale of [*Stranger Things*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/stranger-things/?ref=spyglass.org) into theaters has been turned upside down. > > The streamer announced Thursday that the highly anticipated feature-length ending to the coming-of-age sci-fi hit will get a theatrical release after all. > > The screenings of the season five closer will take place in more than 350 theaters in the U.S. and Canada starting on Dec. 31 at 5 p.m. PT — timed to the finale’s global premiere on Netflix — and will run through Jan. 1, 2026. Yes, this is happening despite [Netflix explicitly saying this would not happen](https://variety.com/2025/tv/features/stranger-things-5-duffer-bros-ending-spinoffs-1236551615/?ref=spyglass.org). And that's a good thing because of course it *should* happen! Undoubtedly this is largely driven by the Duffer Brothers, the *Stranger Things* creators who [infamously jumped ship](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171573026/the-duffer-brothers-to-paramount?ref=spyglass.org) to the new Paramount because Netflix was unwilling to work in theatrical. While it may have been too late to woo them back, it clearly applied pressure to send *Stranger Things* (which will undoubtedly see spin-offs down the road which the Duffers will still be a part of for Netflix) off with style. And it sends a signal to the rest of Hollywood – and specifically, the talent: Netflix is not as against theatrical as their rhetoric suggests. Or even *states*. And that's important because the Duffers weren't the first to take their talents elsewhere over this issue, [with Netflix losing](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) Emerald Fennell's *Wuthering Heights* in large part because producer and star Margot Robbie wanted a theatrical release. And this followed Robbie's *Barbie* colleague, Greta Gerwig, demanding some sort of theatrical experience for her upcoming *Narnia* adaptation. [A move which landed](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) on an IMAX compromise – a pretty massive cave for Netflix. Oh yes, and then there's Guillermo del Toro's *Frankenstein*. A movie also clearly built for theaters, to the point where [fans were demanding a release](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/). And now they're [getting one](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/can-pixels-meet-atoms-in-ai?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20Netflix%20and%20theaters%2C%20it%20looks%20like%20Guillermo%20del%20Toro%E2%80%99s%20Frankenstein%20will%20get%20a%20more%20traditional%20release%2C%20after%20all.%20And%20the%20window%20looks%20to%20be%203%20weeks%2C%20which%20is%20a%20big%20one%20for%20Netflix%2C%20which%20they%27re%20obviously%20not%20touting%2C%20but%20it%27s%20an%20interesting%20continuing%20trend...%20%5BTHR%5D). *KPop Demon Hunters* [k-popped at the box office](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) after Sony [convinced them](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) it would be a good idea to do a limited theatrical run – even after being on Netflix for months. Are you sensing a trend yet? You should be – and it's one you would have seen a year ago if you were reading Spyglass. In fact, it was *exactly a year ago yesterday* that I published: [**Netflix's Next Backtrack: Movie Theaters**](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). As I wrote: > Netflix is sort of like Steve Jobs in a way. That is, they keep insisting they're not going to do something – until they turnaround on a dime and do it. Ads. [Sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/). And soon, I bet: movie theaters. As I argued, Netflix is literally just leaving money on the table by not leveraging theatrical as a key part of their strategy. I'm not saying every bit of content needs to go down that path – [in fact, most shouldn't](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) – but they have enough big, tentpole stuff now that clearly would benefit from the buzz. And, in fact, it will help hype up much of the content for a streaming debut. This is all fairly obvious stuff, so it's not exactly hard to predict – though I will note that I'm often prescient in [my Netflix ideas](https://techcrunch.com/2011/03/19/netflix-cult-hits/?ref=spyglass.org). That includes the general ["binge installment" release strategy](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-ending-installments/) that Netflix is utilizing with this final *Stranger Things* season. From the start of the series, [I wondered](https://500ish.com/the-strange-thing-about-stranger-things-7f2f7d256de6?ref=spyglass.org) if the general binge release strategy wasn't actually hurting the show because it dampened the "watercooler" effect, because everyone was watching different episodes at different times. As it turns out, *Stranger Things* was fine (clearly) with the full-on binge mode, but as the seasons went on, I [laid out why](https://500ish.com/from-binge-watching-to-appointment-viewing-8baa2e07c671?ref=spyglass.org) morphing into more hybrid binge watching/communal viewing idea could work well. Which is exactly what Netflix is leveraging here. Including, now in theaters. Something [I long ago argued](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org) that HBO should have done with *Game of Thrones*. And many other such marquee television shows should leverage. And the theaters should welcome such content. Obviously. **One more thing:** *Puck's* Matt Belloni ([who has been all over Netflix's backtrack here](https://puck.news/newsletter%5Fcontent/what-im-hearing-nbcu-succession-netflixs-next-theater-deal-baris-pr-battle/?ref=spyglass.org)) also notes how the level of thaw has gone [all the way up to AMC](https://puck.news/newsletter%5Fcontent/what-im-hearing-netflix-amc-talks-zaslavs-bidding-war-fantasy/?ref=spyglass.org). Their CEO, Adam Aron, famously has been in a cold war with Netflix over their theatrical stance, to the point where the largest theater chain refused to showcase *KPop Demon Hunters*. Now, it seems, the two sides are going to team in multiple ways going forward, including not only *Narnia* and *Stranger Things*, but unstated future ideas as well. I wonder what those could be... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-471.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Can Barbie Break Netflix?More pressure is applied to Netflix’s anti-movie-theater stance…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-474.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--38--7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) [Ted Sarandos Screams “Fire!” at the Movie TheatersHe’s not wrong, but is he right?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-475.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_movie_theater_on_fire_--ar_169_--profile_6kai7g7_--v__197a8ee1-ee91-484a-bea8-e0557b960f70_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) [The Fans Demand Netflix’s ‘Frankenstein’ in TheatersGuillermo del Toro’s latest looks big screen-worthy. Will Netflix listen?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-472.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Frankenstein-Movie-2025-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/) [KPopping Netflix’s Theatrical StanceNetflix just had the number one movie at the box office – yes, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-473.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/p0lq9155-1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) [Sony’s ‘KPop’ GiftIt shows them a path forward for a new flexible distribution deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-477.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-03-1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) [‘Stranger Things’ Ends In Communal Binge InstallmentsJust as I thought it always should…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-476.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0x0-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/stranger-things-ending-installments/) ### Some Thoughts on ChatGPT Atlas URL: https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-atlas-ai-browser/ Last updated: 2025-12-02T22:19:39.000Z I've been all-in on the newfangled [AI browsers for several months now](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/). My go-to is still the real first-mover here, The Browser Company's [Dia](https://www.diabrowser.com/?ref=spyglass.org), but I keep trying Perplexity's [Comet](https://www.perplexity.ai/comet?ref=spyglass.org), and even the AI elements being tacked on to Google Chrome and Microsoft Edge.[1](#one) And now the 900 pound gorilla of AI has finally entered the cage: [ChatGPT Atlas](https://chatgpt.com/atlas/?ref=spyglass.org). First and foremost, the name is sort of interesting/telling: it's not just 'Atlas', it's 'ChatGPT Atlas'. While it doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, it ties the browser directly to OpenAI's most well-known and most-used product. It's marketing 101, but it also tells you what to expect here: this is very much a browser with not just AI, but *ChatGPT* baked into it. To that end, while I noted the browsers were "newfangled", the reality is that they're less so than you might imagine. If [AI is busy changing everything](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/), it's perhaps just *tweaking* the web browser. Undoubtedly, it's a case of "don't fix what ain't broken" – or perhaps more accurately, "don't break what billions of people know how to use". To that end, each and every one of these browsers is built on top of Chromium, the open source project that is of course tied to Chrome – yes, even Microsoft's browser. As such, each of these browsers very much looks and feels a lot like Chrome. Again, it's undoubtedly a good thing when it comes to getting people to actually use these new browsers – and, just as important, to ensure that the web actually fully works on them – but it's also slightly disappointing. There's probably an opportunity for a web browser completely reimagined from the ground-up with AI, instead, these are far more Chrome + AI. In Chrome itself, that's literally the case as AI is [oddly the most tacked-on of the bunch](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) (perhaps for [some regulatory concern reasons](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/)?). To me, Dia still feels the most "AI native". Comet and now Atlas are sort of in between, just in terms of look and feel. But unlike the other upstarts, Atlas comes with that big advantage in the form of hundreds of millions of people already using ChatGPT. Yes, they still have to download new software (which is only for macOS at the moment), but OpenAI will have some distribution levers to pull here. One they're pulling day one: using Atlas gives you more credits for using ChatGPT itself, depending on your plan. Smart. One thing I don't love about Atlas is the cognitive load in having both left and right ChatGPT toolbars. On the right, you'll find the seemingly now standard AI chat box. But on the left, you'll also find the standard-for-ChatGPT "chat history toolbar". I understand why OpenAI did this – again, it's what people know from ChatGPT – but despite the name, Atlas is not ChatGPT itself. And to that end, I don't really want everything I use Atlas for to go into my chat history. I know there are ways to avoid this, such as with 'Incognito' mode, but to me it feels like ChatGPT chat and ChatGPT web browsing should be more separated. Maybe that's just the old man yelling at the kids on the lawn situation since I come from the old school web browsing world, but I find what I'm doing on Atlas, even just one day in, to be cluttering up my ChatGPT logs. Related to the above, another thing that I much prefer with Dia versus Atlas (and Comet) is that it smartly still knows when to default a query to Google. Again, this is undoubtedly an old school user issue in a way – i.e. [I'm used to using Google for many types of queries](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) – but I'm not sure that I'm wrong from a user experience perspective here. Atlas and Comet unsurprisingly just really, *really* want to default you to ChatGPT [and Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/), respectively. Dia tries to more smartly route you to AI or Google Search depending on what you're typing. Yes, Atlas and Comet have ways to get you to Google quickly via their drop-downs or keyboard shortcuts, but for "regular" users, they're probably going to be frustrated by this new behavior. To that end, one other nice bit about Dia is the so-called "Switzerland" element. That is, because they don't have their own AI, they're working behind the scenes to try to route you to the best answer/outcome regardless of the technology – be it AI (mostly with ChatGPT via APIs) or Google. This would have been the obvious PR answer for how Dia can survive an onslaught from the much larger (and much better funded) players. But the reality is that [all that matters](https://spyglass.org/ai-web-browser/) in the browser space is [distribution](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/), and Dia was never going to be able to compete there alone ([see also](https://spyglass.org/joan-of-arc/): [The Browser Company's first attempt at a new browser with Arc](https://spyglass.org/the-new-ai-browsers/)). So they were smart to sell when they did [to Atlassian](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/). Hopefully they're given all the resources they need to try to become the true "Switzerland" AI browser here (and hopefully they don't start routing all of Dia through "Rovo" [Atlassian's own AI "teammate" thing](https://www.atlassian.com/trust/atlassian-intelligence?ref=spyglass.org)). We'll see. Of course, beyond the AI chatbot stuff, the real key to these browsers may be the "agentic" use cases. When I first tried "Operator", OpenAI's first true agent last January, there's a reason why my title was: [**OpenAI's 'Operator' Shows Why They'll Build a Web Browser**](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/). My point was that in order to do everything they were trying to do with Operator, OpenAI clearly needed to fully control (and build) their own browser. And now they do. And so it's no surprise that a big portion of [their intro video for Atlas](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UWKxJbjriY&ref=spyglass.org) is all about the agentic use-cases. To me, all of this is still more compelling as a demo of what's possible versus something I'm going to use regularly.[2](#two) We not only need some killer use cases, I suspect we need some new types of sites/services purpose-built to be used by agents, with human usage as the fall-back option, versus the other way around. Couldn't that just be done via APIs? Ideally, yes, but there are always going to be edge-cases and websites that simply don't have the resources to conform to whatever the hot new thing is, so agentic web browsing still makes sense in that context. But still, it can be far more tailored than it is right now. There's also just a user mind shift that clearly needs to occur: am I really okay letting my browser look up, say, the travel logistics for a trip? I probably should be, just as I would be with an assistant! But then again, 99% of people don't have an assistant. And while they can get a digital one now (well, Plus and Pro users at least), it takes some getting used to letting go of the responsibility of doing everything yourself... Back to pure aesthetics – which matters here, given that everything just looks a lot like Chrome! – I just slightly prefer the simplified look and feel of Dia. Atlas has some nice touches – the accent color slider is fun, as is the cursor hover-state with the ChatGPT logo[3](#three) – and I prefer it over Comet, which feels too heavy-handed. But I also have grown to love the side-tabs (option) on Dia for when I'm diving deep into a tab-heavy workload. And even little things, like showcasing the bookmarks bar on a new tab screen versus having it always visible (or not).[4](#four) Anyway, those are my initial thoughts on Atlas – sorry, ChatGPT Atlas. It's a solid first attempt at an AI browser, but I still prefer Dia from a user experience perspective, even though ChatGPT is my AI tool of choice. Maybe agents eventually change that equation, maybe not. **One more thing:** the aforementioned [demo video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UWKxJbjriY&ref=spyglass.org) was a bit odd in that Sam Altman was present but seemed distant – almost as if he was disinterested. Everyone has their off days – [even Tim Cook!](https://spyglass.org/apple-q2-2025-earnings/) – but also sort of strange that he was there versus Fidji Simo, [the new, um, CEO](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) of applications.[5](#five) Altman undoubtedly oversaw most of the development of Atlas, but still, this would be an easy unveiling (and a high profile one) [for him to hand off](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/M.G.-Siegler.png) Clever, but also seemingly borrowed from The Browser Company? 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI’s ‘Operator’ Shows Why They’ll Build a Web BrowserTo me, the most interesting aspect of OpenAI’s new ‘Operator’ product – their first real agent – is not what it can do, but how it does it. Unlike the early iterations of similar products from Anthropic and Google, ‘Operator’ doesn’t take over your computer, it outsources the work you want to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-468.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_httpss.mj.runUppJx1mo6_w_a_robot_using_a_computer_--ar__9fec8e72-50d6-4d70-90ae-fb8366bc5c57_1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/) [Begun, the AI Browser Wars HaveDia ushers in a new day for the web browser…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-469.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/b04142c9c497f827215ce0576354f7fac5cb5ab8-2400x1260-1-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/) [Escalated, the AI Browser Wars Have – QuicklyRight after Dia, Perplexity’s Comet is here – with OpenAI inbound…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-470.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_war_between_web_browsers_cartoon_--ar_43_--v_7_379532db-55ed-4ac8-a27e-7639745058b4_3-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/) --- 1 No, I'm not on the [Opera 'Neon'](https://www.operaneon.com/?ref=spyglass.org) train yet... [↩](#) 2 To be fair to OpenAI, in the demo video, they basically acknowledge that it may end up being the user base that ends up figuring out the best ways to use agents to enable "vibe lifing" versus what their demos showcase today... [↩](#) 3 The app icon is also nice, following the Sora precedent of maintaining the ChatGPT icon outline with a twist (this one being a cursor icon). I sort of wish it was lighter though and easier to see? [↩](#) 4 This is straight out of Chrome itself, but the others may not copy it to focus more on their own chatbot look and feel in the new tab page. [↩](#) 5 I mean, they even do an agentic demo with Instacart – the company Simo famously walked away from being the CEO of to be the second CEO here. That would have been a fun moment! [↩](#) ### Disney Killed Kylo Ren, Again URL: https://spyglass.org/disney-kills-kylo-ren-again/ Last updated: 2025-12-02T22:19:29.000Z [Adam Driver on Jarmusch, ‘Star Wars’ and putting filmmakers firstIn an interview with The Associated Press, Adam Driver says he developed a Kylo Ren “Star Wars” movie that would have been directed by Steven Soderbergh.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-45.png)AP NewsJAKE COYLE![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/90-1)](https://apnews.com/article/adam-driver-star-wars-soderbergh-jarmusch-4e08164d0419759f1b5b50d69864975d?ref=spyglass.org) While discussing his new movie (with Jim Jarmusch) at the New York Film Festival, Driver clearly had something else he wanted to get off his chest: > “I always was interested in doing another ‘Star Wars,’” says Driver, who starred as Kylo Ren in the trilogy kicked off by [“The Force Awakens.”](https://apnews.com/domestic-news-domestic-news-movies-general-news-f5d5a12bacc248ba86d77642b9a17fc2?ref=spyglass.org) “I had been talking about doing another one since 2021\. Kathleen (Kennedy) had reached out. I always said: With a great director and a great story, I’d be there in a second. I loved that character and loved playing him.” Interesting. I vaguely recall Ren dying – though, to be honest, I had to go back and double check because [the third movie](https://500ish.com/the-turbulent-whiplash-inducing-repetitive-landing-of-star-wars-da2e33eae8f0?ref=spyglass.org) is almost completely [forgettable retconning](https://500ish.com/the-retcon-of-the-jedi-33a8088216a6?ref=spyglass.org) nonsense. [And yes, he did die](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql1o3UPQ2lo&ref=spyglass.org), or I suppose technically vanished, apparently having given his life force to save Rey. So maybe this would have been an earlier story about Kylo? A 'Knights of Ren' tale, perhaps? Apparently not! > Driver says he took a concept to Soderbergh for a film that would take place after 2019’s [“The Rise of Skywalker.”](https://apnews.com/article/us-news-ap-top-news-movies-entertainment-film-reviews-d6e037748843ab90bdd31a33be612b63?ref=spyglass.org) That movie culminated in Ren’s redemption and apparent death. Driver had undertaken the trilogy with an arc in mind for Ren that inverted the journey of Darth Vader. As the trilogy evolved, it didn’t play out that way. Driver felt there was unfinished business for Kylo Ren, or as he was known before turning to the Dark Side, Ben Solo. Yes, "Soderbergh" is Steven Soderbergh. The filmmaker most probably recognize as the director of the *Ocean's* trilogy, but I will always think of as the director who actually made George Clooney a movie star in the criminally forgotten Elmore Leonard adaptation of *Out of Sight*. He obviously has a resume filled with other great movies as well, not least of which is his latest one, [the criminally unseen *Black Bag*](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/). Anyway, you had my curiosity, Adam Driver, now you have my attention. > Soderbergh and Rebecca Blunt outlined a story that the group then pitched to Kennedy, Lucasfilm vice president Cary Beck and Lucasfilm chief creative officer Dave Filoni. They were interested, so the filmmakers then pulled in [Scott Z. Burns](https://apnews.com/general-news-movies-political-news-bff8a5d25f1644d9b3b19e341e6f89cb?ref=spyglass.org) to write a script. Driver calls the result “one of the coolest (expletive) scripts I had ever been a part of.” Okay, okay! A Kylo Ren post-death sequel written by the guy who has written several Soderbergh films, but also um, *The Bourne Ultimatum* alongside Tony Gilroy. I'm in. Sadly, Disney was not: > “We presented the script to Lucasfilm. They loved the idea. They totally understood our angle and why we were doing it,” Driver says. “We took it to Bob Iger and Alan Bergman and they said no. They didn’t see how Ben Solo was alive. And that was that.” Details, details! It's *Star Wars*! No one is ever really gone – [that was a whole theme](https://500ish.com/no-ones-ever-really-gone-a46f4fe3bd06?ref=spyglass.org). Fucking Emperor Palpatine came back. Everyone comes back. > “It was called ‘The Hunt for Ben Solo’ and it was really cool,” adds Driver. “But it is no more, so I can finally talk about it.” I suspect what really killed it wasn't the pesky death, but the very real *Star Wars* fatigue that set in after [Disney milked the IP dry](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) during the pandemic. The third trilogy [started strong](https://spyglass.org/may-the-4th/) but quickly went sour. But some of the other stuff was just [pointless](https://500ish.com/han-what-5c468c19e684?ref=spyglass.org), or [worse](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-mostly-sucked/), [bad](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/). But this... this could have salvaged some of that! > Soderbergh, in a statement, said: “I really enjoyed making the movie in my head. I’m just sorry the fans won’t get to see it.” Well never say never, with Iger soon to step back (and Kathleen Kennedy seemingly out the door soon as well). There's been quite a long *Star Wars* lull now, [which will end soon](https://spyglass.org/new-star-wars-maybe/). But (with a new Rey-focused film on hold) perhaps without any Skywalkers. One suspects they'll be back. **One more thing:** Driver also at least indirectly talking [about *Heat 2*](https://spyglass.org/amazon-heat-2-movie/) – a movie in which he's not yet officially cast, but has long been connected to: > Driver is reportedly attached to a pair of films that would reunite him with filmmakers he feels similarly about: Carax (“Annette”) and Mann. Mann’s “Heat 2” recently moved from Warner Bros. to Amazon MGM’s United Artists after Warner Bros. balked at the film’s cost. “Watching filmmakers not get the money they need is frustrating,” Driver says. “I don’t think I’m a value add. But I’m always down for the cause because I love those filmmakers and their films. I’d rather do a Michael Mann anything.” --- **Update October 26, 2025**: [Steven Soderbergh has taken to Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/bitchuation.bsky.social/post/3m3sqkb27ms25?ref=spyglass.org) – yes, apparently Steven Soderbergh is both on Bluesky and using it as his information dissemination platform of choice – to add that "Also, in the aftermath of the HFBS situation, I asked Kathy Kennedy if LFL had ever turned in a finished movie script for greenlight to Disney and had it rejected. She said no, this was a first." Yes, [the super secretive project known as "Quiet Leaves"](https://theplaylist.net/the-hunt-for-ben-solo-steven-soderbergh-adam-drivers-secret-star-wars-movie-was-greenlit-before-disney-pulled-the-plug-exclusive-20251024/?ref=spyglass.org) was apparently not only fully greenlit, but Lucasfilm had paid the aforementioned Scott Z. Burns *more money than they had ever paid any screenwriter* for the screenplay. And this whole ordeal [may have hurt Alan Bergman's standing](https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2025/10/24/steven-soderbergh-confirms-the-hunt-for-ben-solo-was-fully-greenlit-by-lucasfilm-before-disney-canceled-it?ref=spyglass.org) in the [next CEO of Disney race](https://spyglass.org/r/8f8551b0?m=48ca564c-8d25-4832-8fb8-9e198bf4704d)... --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [More Star Wars! No, Not Those!Disney continues to bungle the Lucasfilm crown jewels…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-465.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--47--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/new-star-wars-maybe/) [May the 4th, Rank the 4thThe ‘Star Wars’ movie rankings in 2024![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-467.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Star_Wars_Logo-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/may-the-4th/) [Somehow, Star Wars ReturnedWith Kathleen Kennedy set to retire, the Force awakens again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-466.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_bunch_of_people_fighting_with_lightsabers_cartoon_--a_10417081-f699-40c5-aa1b-e5775e906abe_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/) ### AGI or Bust URL: https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/ Last updated: 2025-12-01T07:57:37.000Z The world rarely operates in black or white. Most things exist in the margins. In the shades of gray. And yet the world is also increasingly polarized. The loudest arguments right now are either on one extreme or the other. In the tech world this conflict is unfolding around AI. It's either the future of well, everything. Or the biggest bubble ever that's going to burst. This is not a new debate, of course. We're a few years into it. But the stakes keep getting raised just as the capital continues to be raised. The numbers are truly mind-boggling to the point of being numbing. A year ago, OpenAI was [setting a record with a $6.6B fundraise](https://spyglass.org/augmented-trust/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20Raises%20%246.6%20billion%20in%20Largest%20VC%20Round%20Ever). How quaint. A few months later, [$40B was the new high-water mark](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/). Yes, it was [more money than has been raised by any company *in any IPO ever*](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) – and, of course, *it wasn't an IPO*. But come on, this is AI! That deal was so nine months ago. How about [a $100B deal](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)? Of course! I'm old enough to remember when [Apple was in a race with Exxon](https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/18/id-shut-it-down-and-give-money-back-to-investors/?ref=spyglass.org) to become the most valuable company in the world. In 2011, the market cap of both companies [was around $400B](https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/09/apple-exxon-valuable-company/?ref=spyglass.org). Today, OpenAI is worth $500B. As a private company.[1](#one) It's silly but it's not particularly funny. And I increasingly do worry that it runs the risk of getting quite serious. Because I believe that [OpenAI's strategy here](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) is basically "AGI or Bust". Feel free to substitute in any phrase you'd like for "AGI" there – ["Superintelligence" etc](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) – but the idea is the same: that Sam Altman has positioned his company to the point where it now can only work if they achieve "AGI" and it truly does transform well, everything. And look, that's what they should be aiming for! No one can fault the ambition. The issue is that they've increasingly dragged others along for the ride and those others run the risk of not so much failing as much as collapsing the stock market and thus, the entire economy. That sounds like hyperbole, but again, increasingly, I fear it's not. OpenAI, with their endless ambition, has staged a game to be played on the field that others now simply are being forced to play as well. And games often do have binary outcomes... To spell it out more plainly, it's not just that OpenAI has massive ambitions, and it's not just that they've convinced investors to give them tens of billions of dollars, it's that increasingly vital parts of the stock market are now completely intertwined in this situation. It started, of course, [with Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/), which has been working to try to [unwind](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) some of [that relationship](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/). But as a result, OpenAI has roped in others like Oracle, AMD, and yes, NVIDIA – the largest company by market cap in the world, with a value a full order of magnitude above where Apple and Exxon were all those years ago. It's a stock [so vital to the S&P 500](https://longbridge.com/en/news/261406248?ref=spyglass.org) that if it were to tank... Of course, NVIDIA is a real company with real revenues and unlike OpenAI right now, very real profits. But obviously nearly all of it is wedded to the entire AI ecosystem. An ecosystem which is increasingly wedded to OpenAI. If the company falters, it starts a cascading effect which will absolutely hit NVIDIA. And if NVIDIA falters, it starts a much larger cascading effect which will absolutely hip the entire stock market. And if that happens, things get ugly, fast. The stock prices and their impacts on 401ks and the like obviously will matter a lot. But just as critical will be the impact such a downturn would have [on spending](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/). Without constantly rising stock prices, all of Big Tech will be under immense pressure to stop [their wild CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/). Maybe a fully founder-controlled company like Meta can press on, but it will be hard to do it when at least part of the above cascade implies that something about OpenAI's model (if not their models) is broken. That [CapEx pull back](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) will impact *actual* jobs. And if you buy the [recent reports](https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/data-centers-gdp-growth-zero-first-half-2025-jason-furman-harvard-economist/?ref=spyglass.org) that AI spend ([specifically, data center build-outs](https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/#:~:text=Without%20those%20data%20centers%2C%20US%20GDP%20growth%20may%20have%20been%20just%200.1%25%20in%20the%20first%20half%20of%202025%20%28it%27s%20more%20nuanced%20than%20that%2C%20but%20still%20wow%29.%20%5BFortune%5D)) is the main thing buoying GDP growth in the economy, well... Again, this gets ugly, fast. It's all hypothetical, of course, but it's also a bit terrifying as to how quickly and easily it could become reality. It doesn't require the *collapse* of OpenAI, just something that merely showcases a *slowdown* in likely outcomes or timetables. Something that puts a chill on spending while sending a chill down the spine of the market. Something that plants a seed of real doubt: maybe this isn't going to play out as promised. This will lead to a private contagion that could lead to a public one. And again, that's all because OpenAI has set itself up for a completely binary outcome here. With [these massive deals](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/), they have bolstered themselves to the point of being "too big to fail". And with that phrase in mind, it's certainly possible that the powers that be in the White House – and certainly the current administration given their proclivity to strike deals [with, say, Intel](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) – decide to [bail them out](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) or backstop them in some way to stop the above from happening. Then again, I'm not sure we can trust anyone at the Treasury to be savvy enough to see all of this until it's too late... My point is simply that even something as increasingly polarized as AI really shouldn't be this binary. *It is incredible technology* that is already transforming things. And it doesn't need to be "AGI" to do that. But again, it feels like OpenAI now needs it to be "AGI" for their own business to work at the scale at which it's being funded. We're literally talking "trillions" here. And that increasingly means that the entire ecosystem is on the "AGI or Bust" train, with everything and everyone [so interconnected](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/). All of this is [on my mind](https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Andrej%20Karpathy%20on%20the%20Dwarkesh%20Podcast) when listening to [Andrej Karpathy on the Dwarkesh Podcast](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy?ref=spyglass.org). Or [Paul Kedrosky on Derek Thompson's podcast](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-will-pop?ref=spyglass.org). Or [Azeem Azhar's](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/is-ai-a-bubble?ref=spyglass.org) [rebuttal](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/why-ai-is-not-a-bubble?ref=spyglass.org) on Derek Thompson's podcast. Or any number of other people on any number of other podcasts. Everyone is dancing around the same campfire. And it sounds increasingly set to the tune of "AGI or Bust" because OpenAI is the DJ. And it's also on my mind when reading [Berber Jin's piece in *The Wall Street Journal* yesterday](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-open-ai-nvidia-deals-d10a6525?ref=spyglass.org) reporting on how Altman, almost like the Pied Piper, has been able to get Jensen Huang of NVIDIA and Lisa Su of AMD to line up to dance. They are but two partners in the game of helping OpenAI to come up with [some "new ideas" in finance](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/). Some of which sound decidedly less mysterious than than seem simply risky. > As part of the deal, Nvidia is also discussing guaranteeing some of the loans that OpenAI plans to take out to build its own data centers, people familiar with the matter said—a move that could saddle the chip giant with billions of dollars in debt obligations if the startup can’t pay for them. The arrangement hasn’t been previously reported. I'm highlighting this, in part, because it's well, exactly what I thought might be happening. [As I wrote a few weeks ago](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/): > That's where the mysterious "new ideas" for financing come into play. In parsing Sam Altman's provocative words a couple weeks ago, [I landed on a model](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) where their massive ([up to](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)) $100B deal from NVIDIA is really just a way for a wildly unprofitable startup to be able to access debt to do data center build-outs in the way that only an insanely profitable company – like NVIDIA – can. It's both circular and clever: NVIDIA gives OpenAI cash in exchange for equity, which OpenAI uses to build out data centers, a large part of which is, yes, leasing NVIDIA chips. Those chip agreements are used by NVIDIA to raise cash in the form of debt to send to... OpenAI for these build-outs. And round we go. OpenAI can't raise the debt required to build their own data centers at scale, but their partner NVIDIA sure can! [What could possibly go wrong?](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/) At the same time, you can even see the rationale for wanting to do this: Altman must feel like they *need* to do this [in order to beat Google](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/). And certainly Jensen is sympathetic to that argument! Especially with the looming threat of [TPUs coming to market](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Google%20TPUs%20Move%20More%20Into%20NVIDIA%27s%20Lane)...[2](#two) Still, Altman would be silly to put all his eggs in one basket. So [work continues with Broadcom](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20The%20OpenAI/Broadcom%20Deal). And while Lisa Su can't really afford to send OpenAI $100B like NVIDIA can, [AMD can do so with stock](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal) – certainly if the very deal causes the stock to rise by more than that amount! What can Intel offer? We may see! It's all [sort of funny money](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/). But again, not particularly funny. Potentially decidedly *unfunny*. Jensen is arguably just as conflicted in all of this as Altman is – more so, in ways, [with all of NVIDIA's investments](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/) – but he's also more diversified with a real business right now. Not in a decade, *today*. But again, so much of that business is actually tied up in the music Altman is playing. If that music stops... Jensen knows how that goes. So he really has to be all-in here too. The binary bet. With that in mind, *why not* pledge $100B? Especially when he also knows that right now it's sort of the inverse of my doomsday scenario above: all of these AI deals are boosting the stock prices of these companies. You can either play the game or not and be seen as a laggard, one missing out on "free" money. I mean, just look at Oracle. Oracle! All of these deals, even if they currently make no fiscal sense pay for themselves in market cap boosts. Call it vibe investing. But it all also feels like a race against the clock. Because there's another scenario where *OpenAI* doesn't bring down the house, but another macro event does and grinds the same gears to a halt. History tells us that's truly only a matter of time. You can't time it, but you can be certain of it. So the race is on to "AGI" before that happens, if nothing else. Which, in turn, is part of what's fueling the massive capital needs and spend *right now*. Well that and [an arms race with Google](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). To go back to Jin's story, it feels fitting ([and inevitable](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/)) that Altman found Masa Son to fuel a lot of this. Everyone knows the stories about Masa asking entrepreneurs to dream bigger and it doesn't get bigger than AI and Altman's ambitions here. It's a bit like a match finding lighter fluid. Sure, [Masa has a history](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B8%20The%20Mystery,.%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) of these types of bets blowing up in his face, and nearly going bust, but perhaps he just didn't latch on to the right idea at the right time. Historically, he's also sort of stumbled into the right ideas on the side which have saved him – Alibaba, ARM, etc – so if he can just align the cash cannon with the right idea...[3](#three) Again, it's binary. So to me, it's less about a bubble that could burst and more about a bet that could bust. The stakes have been bid up to the point where AI *simply working at a smaller scale* will not be enough here. It has to be "AGI". Perhaps we should simply define it as the technology which creates trillions of dollars in market value. That's what OpenAI – and increasingly the rest of the tech industry, and probably the US economy, and perhaps the entire world economy needs. Because if we don't get that – or even just don't get it on a reasonable timescale... Kaboom. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-21--2025--04_51_23-PM-1.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-457.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-459.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs...Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-458.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_massive_data_center_being_built_out_--ar_169_--v_7_b58eab90-7490-4473-9d35-53b32c5943b0_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) --- 1 Just ahead of... you guessed it: [Exxon, at $480B](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) 2 And if Altman really was [talking to Google about using the TPUs](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-convinces-openai-use-tpu-chips-win-nvidia?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – or even just having the conversation so it might get out there... Well, [well played, Sam](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/siris-brain-transplant?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Insult%20to%20the,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), it worked! [↩](#) 3 One wild card with all of the above is the foreign money pouring in as well. It could end up as more um, gas, on the fire. Or it could be the um, fuel, that ultimately salvages the whole thing (because the soverign money can better weather any short term fiscal storms, and it's money that still needs to diversify...) But that's all well above my pay grade, but certainly worth noting. [↩](#) ### Signal: Lego Heads 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-lego-heads/ Last updated: 2025-10-20T13:25:46.000Z Back on the road again this week (have I mentioned how many breaks children get from school in Europe?), but as always will be writing here and there, just more sporadically. --- ### I Wrote... [The Checkered Flag is Out, Apple Finally Takes F1 RightsAnd all Apple TV subscribers will benefit!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-448.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-17--2025--05_06_50-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-rights/) --- ### Thoughts On... **🗣️** [**Andrej Karpathy on the Dwarkesh Podcast**](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy?ref=spyglass.org) – The [headlines](https://www.techmeme.com/251017/p26?ref=spyglass.org#a251017p26) are zeroing in on his poo-poo-ing of the imminent AGI hype, but there's a lot more in here (as you'd hope from a two and a half hour podcast!). Even just the first 30 minutes or so is worth your time as Karpathy lays out why he feels like all the comparisons of LLMs to the brain are wrong – hint: [it's evolution, baby!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDaOgu2CQtI&ref=spyglass.org) – and why what we're actually building with the current AI systems may be more akin to ghosts than actual humans (they're echoes of us). And why dreaming (or the equivalent) may be a missing ingredient, in both flushing unneeded memory and fully committing other core learnings to the repository. It's almost more philosophical than technical, but we get to that as well. Such as when Karpathy breaks down [his recent "nanochat" project](https://x.com/karpathy/status/1977755427569111362?ref=spyglass.org) and conveys just how much vibe coding still mainly sucks for all but the most rudimentary tasks (which is still valuable, as he notes). Mainly, it's somewhat amazing how eloquent while being erudite Karpathy is compared to some of his peers in the field. **\[**[**Dwarkesh**](https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🧠** [**Xitter Rethinks Links**](https://www.engadget.com/x-is-testing-a-new-way-of-opening-links-in-posts-to-improve-engagement-211210520.html?ref=spyglass.org) – To be clear, it's [not entirely clear](https://x.com/nikitabier/status/1979994223224209709?ref=spyglass.org) that this signals a change in the way Xitter handles the ranking/surfacing of posts with links in their algorithm, but it at least *suggests* that they might go back to making such posts first-class citizens again. I know I'm not alone in thinking that just [practically speaking](https://spyglass.org/a-social-media-nightmare/), this was [the worst change](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/C1h9fzHI3AP?ref=spyglass.org) of the Elon-era. Twitter used to be *the* place to find and share links and just scrolling right now to try to see if I can test this new functionality, I'm hard-pressed to find *a single tweet with a link shared* in the main tweet (with most being relegated to a second tweet, which remains just farcical hoop-jumping bullshit). Obviously, the company believes this was a good change in an attempt to move beyond Twitter's roots and into [the "everything app"](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/), but this change – help us, Nikita Bier, you're our only hope – may be an admission that it hasn't worked. Twitter, even as Xitter, [remains](https://spyglass.org/twitter-x-cnn/) the real-time news hub of the world. Just with a lot more spam and porn and a lot fewer links these days. Here's hoping... **\[**[**Engadget**](https://www.engadget.com/x-is-testing-a-new-way-of-opening-links-in-posts-to-improve-engagement-211210520.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💰** [**Meta's Private Capital AI Play**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/blue-owl-seals-largest-private-capital-deal-for-meta-s-ai-growth?ref=spyglass.org)– It's not just [OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) and [xAI](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/#:~:text=%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,%F0%9F%92%B0%20xAI%20Raising%20%2420B,-%E2%80%93%20Speaking%20of%20Elon) that are figuring out ["new ideas"](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) for financing the billions needed for data center build outs. The difference, of course, is that unlike those two, Meta is *wildly profitable*. Still, this private capital SPV structure allows them to raise massive amounts of debt without it hitting their own balance sheet. And it allows Blue Owl – [also the co-owner of the first 'Stargate' data center](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) in Texas – to own most of Meta's 'Hyperion' data center in Louisiana (with Pimco as the anchor lender). And presumably the same model will be used for the [just-announced](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/meta-building-new-gigawatt-sized-data-center-in-texas?ref=spyglass.org) new 1GW data center Meta is building in Texas too, alongside 'Prometheus' in Ohio – no word on the Greek God name for the Texas one yet. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/blue-owl-seals-largest-private-capital-deal-for-meta-s-ai-growth?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** 📲 [**The iPhone Air Up There (And Down There)**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/10/17/iphone-air-sells-out-almost-instantly-in-china/?ref=spyglass.org) – A lot of conflicting reports as to just how popular (or not popular) the iPhone Air is thus far. While it [apparently sold out in China](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3329336/apples-iphone-air-sells-out-minutes-china-after-ceo-tim-cooks-visit?ref=spyglass.org) after its ([delayed](https://spyglass.org/signal-openais-pbc-race-is-on/?ref=spyglass-signal-newsletter#:~:text=So%20much%20for%20those%20iPhone%20Air%20pre%2Dorders%20in%20China%2C%20as%20the%20device%20is%20now%20clearly%20delayed%20while%20all%20the%20carriers%20%28and%20the%20government%29%20scramble%20to%20ensure%20they%20can%20handle%20the%20eSIM%20element%20%28at%20first%20only%20China%20Unicom%20was%20on%20board%2C%20which%20presumably%20the%20other%20carriers%20didn%27t%20love%29.%20%5BSCMP%5D)) release, in the US and other Western markets, Apple may be cutting production already. Anecdotally, here in London, the Air remains widely available in stores while the iPhone 17 Pro is constrained. But even more interesting, the iPhone 17 "regular" seems to be the *most* constrained. The reports seem to back up that it's [selling far better than the iPhone 16](https://www.ft.com/content/be3f6853-286b-4296-9cef-fd0a9da624f8?ref=spyglass.org). It's possible Apple simply underestimated demand for the base model? Maybe people dig the colors? If the above is true, curious how Apple handles such data. Are [future iPhone Airs](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) aimed directly at China while iPhone "Regular" is more targeted at the West? Does it alter what was clearly the plan to slowly morph the Air into the "Regular" with iteration? Was I right in [my pre-launch thinking](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) as to [why the Air was a gamble for Apple](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Apple%27s%20%27iPhone%20Air%27%20Gamble)? **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/10/17/iphone-air-sells-out-almost-instantly-in-china/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **💩** [**Will AI Products Get Enshitty?**](https://www.wired.com/story/can-ai-escape-enshittification-trap/?ref=spyglass.org) – Steven Levy takes the publication of [the book](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Enshittification-Everything-Suddenly-Worse-About/dp/1836742223?ref=spyglass.org) on "[enshittification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification?ref=spyglass.org)" to ponder the question author Cory Doctorow doesn't address (as it's still too new): how will this play out with AI? I mean, *obviously* it will play out the same as it has with every other product: the incentives will be too strong for this *not* to happen. Again, that's always the case (and why this happens in general, obviously). But I also think Doctorow (when Levy asked him) is right that it could happen *faster* with AI because of both the "black box" nature of these services and the [insane amount of money already flowing](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) through the systems to [build them](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) and [make them work](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). Which is to say: enjoy the (subsidized) AI products we have right now. They sadly won't last. As least not in the same surprising and delightful way that we now enjoy. **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/can-ai-escape-enshittification-trap/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Quote... > "The problem though, is we all know we can all watch everything, but it's very hard to find. You have to sign up for 1,200 subscriptions around them." – **Eddy Cue**, [talking about](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-top-exec-says-things-033114483.html?ref=spyglass.org) the current problem with streaming content. Not mentioned, [you also have to *pay*](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) for those "1,200" subscriptions. All of this is why the players, [including now Apple](https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8E%F0%9F%A6%9A%20Apple%20TV%20%2B%20Peacock), are [re-bundling](https://spyglass.org/espn-fox-one-sports-bundle/). And that will continue. But [the real answer is an "iTunes" for the space](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) – a unifier that just makes it all work, seamlessly. Apple, led by Cue, has been *trying* to do that for years already, but others – [notably](https://spyglass.org/netflix-apple-tv/), [Netflix](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/) – won't play ball. In part because they know what Apple wants to do: they saw it first hand with iTunes! What's great for consumers is less great for them... --- ### Asides... - Amidst the [AI talent brain drain](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/), there are whispers inside Apple that **iOS 26.4** – aka the "**New Siri**" – *still* isn't going to be [up to snuff](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-19/apple-m5-ipad-pro-vision-pro-macbook-pro-impressions-review-touch-screen-mac-mgxnn1w8?cmpid=BBD101925%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251019&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) **🔒\]** - Other whispers suggest a team within Apple is quietly working on [the deep](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) **iOS** [integration](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) for **Gemini** (and Gemini 3 remains on track for December)... **\[**[**Sources**](https://sources.news/p/google-readies-gemini-3-perplexity?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Speaking of **Xitter**, they're also launching a **marketplace** for **inactive** **Twitter handles**, but you have to pay the top tier prices to access them. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/802474/x-is-launching-a-marketplace-for-inactive-handles?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Oh, and they're working on a way to essentially **verify** **accounts** without using the method they had and destroyed for verification. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/15/x-plans-to-show-more-information-about-user-profiles-to-help-improve-trust/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Nintendo** launched with solid **Switch 2** inventory and saw [record sales](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2-launch/) as a result, to the point where they continue to ramp supply. Feels like Playstation and Xbox could learn something there ([if Microsoft even remains in this business](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20The%20Xbox%20%24360%20Era)). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-17/nintendo-switch-2-production-plan-25-million-units-by-march-2026?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Seems like **Ilya Sutskever's** OpenAI stake and whatever the "**Brockman Memo**" is may become bigger news soon with a court ordering both into the open. This is all from [the Elon lawsuit](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/), of course. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/sutskever-disclose-brockman-memo-openai-stake-musk-suit?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - All things can be true: ***One Battle After Another*** can be [fantastic](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/) and the biggest movie in P.T. Anderson's illustrious career, and also [a big bomb](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) at the **box office** (due to its budget), with $100M in projected losses. **\[**[**Variety**](https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/one-battle-after-another-lose-100-million-dollars-theaters-1236552914/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... [Police raided the home](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/18/us/lego-theft-california-arrest.html?ref=spyglass.org) of someone suspected of stealing tens of thousands of Lego pieces and found... Lego figurines with their heads removed so they could be *organized by facial expression*. OCD much, (alleged) Lego thief guy? [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/17xp-lego-jumbo.webp)](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/18/us/lego-theft-california-arrest.html?ref=spyglass.org) ### The Checkered Flag is Out, Apple Finally Takes F1 Rights URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-rights/ Last updated: 2025-12-01T07:57:10.000Z [Apple and F1 reach 5-year media deal, bringing all races to Apple TV streaming in the U.S.Apple and Formula 1 announced their long-awaited five-year U.S. media rights deal that will bring all U.S. televised races to Apple TV![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-35.ico)CNBCAlex Sherman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/108213541-17607096732025-10-17t130016z_893115583_rc297x9r28qi_rtrmadp_0_apple-f1.jpeg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/apple-f1-media-deal-streaming.html?ref=spyglass.org) One of the [worst kept secrets in sports and media](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) of the past several months is finally, officially done: > [Apple](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL/?ref=spyglass.org) and Formula 1 announced a five-year media rights deal Friday that will bring every F1 race to Apple TV beginning in 2026. > > Apple TV will provide coverage of all [Formula 1](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FWONK/?ref=spyglass.org) events, including practice, qualifying and Sprint sessions, as part of the streamer’s existing [$12.99 per month](https://tv.apple.com/?itsct=atvp%5Fbrand%5Fomd&itscg=MC%5F20000&mttn3pid=Google+AdWords&mttnagencyid=a5e&mttncc=US&mttnsiteid=143238&mttnsubad=OUS2019801%5F1-770743511741-c&mttnsubkw=75222244264%5Fkwd-404073815684%5Fw3jcHrts%5F&mttnsubplmnt=%5Fadext%5F&ref=spyglass.org) subscription, which comes ad-free. Certain F1 races and all practice sessions will also be available for free in the Apple TV app throughout the season, the companies said in a statement. That last bit is actually a bit of a surprise. Unlike with their MLS deal, Apple apparently won't be upselling everyone on F1, instead it will be included with Apple TV – not the box, [the service formerly known as Apple TV+](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) (Eddy Cue [insists](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Eddy%20Cue%20on%20Apple%27s%20Hollywood%20Goals) this isn't confusing, but it's certainly confusing to write about). That's great news, both for Apple TV subscribers and for F1\. I suspect it's also something F1 wanted given Apple TV's relatively small reach – certainly compared to ESPN, their current partner that they're leaving in the dust here – they don't want to limit the audience further than they already are here. A tangential interesting tidbit: > F1 TV Premium, the league’s own content offering that’s popular with racing fans, will continue to be available in the U.S. but will now require an Apple TV subscription. Once a customer subscribes to Apple TV, F1 TV Premium will be included in their Apple subscription rather than as a standalone offering. This service was apparently another hold up, with many wondering if it would just go away (at least in the US) with an Apple deal. But it will remain as sort of a "pro" offering for F1 fans – though nicely not in price, as it's also included with Apple TV, the service, not the box. That's also great and important because while F1 has been growing as a sport in the US, it's not as popular as it is in Europe and elsewhere. Now it will be on Apple's shoulders to help with that. Well, and Netflix. That's [always been](https://mgs.blog/netflix-gets-lapped-on-f1-baa811fb8e8e?ref=spyglass.org) a wrinkle here. One big reason why the sports' popularity has been growing in the US (and around the world) is the *Drive to Survive* series which Netflix has been showing for years now. This is a big part of the reason why the initial rumors of a change in distribution partners included the world's biggest streaming service. But to me, it always felt like Apple would be in the running here – this just *felt* like an Apple move (least of which because [Eddy Cue is on the board of Ferrari](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/)) – as I wrote [back February on the Netflix rumors](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/): > **One more thing:** Apple remains [a wildcard](https://mgs.blog/the-f1-trifecta-daefba46785?ref=spyglass.org) given their own sports ambitions. And the fact that their biggest swing yet for Apple TV+, [the Brad Pitt-starring, Joseph Kosinski-directed F1 movie](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/), is coming this summer. Then again, they seemingly like deals such as the one they have with MLS [for worldwide rights](https://500ish.com/apples-messi-strategy-48bd95fe006?ref=spyglass.org). Per this report, F1 would prefer to spread such rights out and Sky Sports in the UK already has a much longer deal with F1, so worldwide is likely out of the picture. Still, [it would be cool](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/) to see an F1 race [in 'Immersive Video'](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/). And [I'd bet that Eddy Cue agrees](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/) (and [don't forget](https://mgs.blog/cold-takes-apple-car-edition-f84709784eef?ref=spyglass.org))... And [I doubled-down on that notion in May](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163328874/laps-is-a-lifetime?ref=spyglass.org) as Apple started to ramp up the (very expensive) marketing for F1, the movie: > The new trailer for F1 — aka, the movie that will [make or break](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) Apple’s feature film ambitions after some [comically bad decisions](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) — [continues to look great](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/). The exact type of movie that demands you see it in a theater. [Ideally, an IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/). And it should cement [Joseph Kosinski](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph%5FKosinski?ref=spyglass.org) as the king of big budget action movies in Hollywood. [Still weird that Apple isn’t pushing harder](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/) for the actual F1 rights in light of this? Well, the movie hit and was a hit ([optically, if not exactly fiscally](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/)). And that probably sealed this deal. And now here we are with Apple paying a lot of money for a sport after [paying a lot of money for a movie](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) about the sport. > Apple is paying about $140 million per year for the racing rights, according to people familiar with the matter. [Disney’s](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DIS/?ref=spyglass.org) ESPN is the incumbent media partner for the league and had been paying about $85 million per year on average, according to people familiar with that deal, who asked not to speak publicly because the details are private. This is where Apple is Apple and Disney is Disney. One is a nearly $200B media company, the other is a nearly $4T tech company. $140M is very relative here. *Apple makes that amount of revenue in about 3 hours*.[1](#one) And the countdown is now officially on for *F1 2*... **One more thing:** it's clearly just a matter of time until we do get a full-on Apple Immersive experience here. That probably wasn't a major selling point of this deal, but it also couldn't have hurt. The version Apple has of this already is awesome. [And now with the move](https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8F%80%20Apple%20Finally%20Fulfilling%20the%20Immersive%20Vision%20Pro%20Promise) ([finally](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/)) into real time immersive sports content coming with some NBA games, hopefully this is something Apple can ramp quickly. That would help both F1 and help Apple sell some Vision Pros! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-17--2025--05_06_50-PM-2.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple’s Formula for F1The movie is good, will the actual rights to the sport be for Apple?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-442.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/rev-1-APEX_Feature_SG_44626rcV1_High_Res_JPEG-5.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) [Apple Finally Has a Hit Movie, But at What Cost?I mean that both literally and figuratively as ‘F1’ was beyond expensive to make and beyond in-your-face to market![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-445.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/CEX6XFSWNZLNFHDIVMV3YJEEFQ-5.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) [Netflix Feels the Need for Live SpeedWhile perhaps not in pole position, an F1 deal would be yet another live sports lap![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-444.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--81--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/) [Apple’s Pitt StopThe drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-446.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f1-movie_review_1750832557353_1750832562273-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) [The Apple Car May Have Flopped, Apple’s Car Movie Should NotIt’s just a teaser trailer, but ‘F1’ looks great.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-443.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-07-at-9.28.22-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) --- 1 Incidentally the amount of time set up for an F1 race when there are red flags or other delays... [↩](#) ### Signal: How You Like Them Apples? 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-how-you-like-them-apples/ Last updated: 2025-10-17T17:37:35.000Z Forget about whether or not Apple it matters *right now* that Apple is behind in AI. The reality is that without the right talent, they'll never be able to catch up and that's... well, it's increasingly an issue, it seems. Is Mark Zuckerberg specifically going after Apple's team sensing the weakness? As payback for ATT back in the day? Or is that just the cherry on top? Regardless, it's not a good situation in Cupertino... [Apple’s AI Brain BleedMeta keeps poaching Apple’s AI talent and that’s a real problem…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-441.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/unnamed-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Thoughts On... **💻** [**Touchscreen MacBook Pros**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/apple-readies-high-end-macbook-pro-with-touch-hole-punch-screen?ref=spyglass.org) – While the rumor [isn't new](https://spyglass.org/signal-looking-back-at-hardware/#:~:text=%F0%9F%91%89%20A%20Touchscreen%20MacBook%3F), Apple can't love the *timing* of Mark Gurman's report here given that [they *just* announced](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/) the M5 MacBook Pro (with the M5 Pro and M5 Max models still to come early next year). Because of course who would buy an M5 version when the M6 version is going to be completely overhauled to allow them to become the first touchscreen Macs? Then again, they'll undoubtedly be more expensive as a result. And we'll have to see how Apple [tweaks macOS](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/) to allow for the combination of a "refrigerator and a toaster" – hopefully such words have been in the fridge [all these years](https://www.geekwire.com/2012/apple-ceo-mixing-tablets-notebooks-means-tradeoffs/?ref=spyglass.org) as Tim Cook will now apparently be eating them. But this was [always inevitable](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/), literally this morning I had to stop my daughter from touching the screen on my MacBook because all she's ever known are touchscreen devices. It seems weird to kids that there are screens you don't touch. And now you also know why [Apple doesn't just](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-pro-macos/) let us [run macOS on the (very capable) iPad Pros](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/)... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/apple-readies-high-end-macbook-pro-with-touch-hole-punch-screen?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📉** [**Oracle's Margins**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/oracle-assures-investors-ai-cloud-margins-struggles-profit-older-nvidia-chips?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – "Let's not talk about my margins, by the way... being nice and fat. That's a nice shirt, do they make it for men?" [It's one of the best scenes in *The Big Short*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X18RADltRVQ&ref=spyglass.org), and what popped into my head reading about Oracle's situation which is *clearly* highly fluid [with regard to their margins](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/#:~:text=No%20surprise%20that,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) as they transition to becoming more and more of a GPU reseller/data center play. The one key question buried in here – which has long been the key question – just how much do margins improve on older NVIDIA chips, since everyone is clearly losing money on initial deployment? The numbers aren't clear and they're clearly obfuscated. The fear, of course, is that while they can be operated with far better margins, the demand isn't there for obsoleted chips. In a way, this feels like the whole ballgame, [at least for](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) the neoclouds. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/oracle-assures-investors-ai-cloud-margins-struggles-profit-older-nvidia-chips?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🎬** [**Hollywood Has No Idea What To Do About AI**](https://sources.news/p/hollywood-has-no-idea-what-to-do?ref=spyglass.org) – No surprise that an industry which famously leans on legacy and is slow to change with any times seems befuddled about what to do as [AI enters their picture](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/). The vanilla talking points seem to betray a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" mentality. As Alex Heath notes, the music industry seems to be handling it a bit better, undoubtedly because they've been through a version of this battle in the Napster era. Hollywood had the YouTube situation, but it was far less existential than [some believe this to be](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) ([but it won't be](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/)). The [reality here](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) will be that the technology [will always be](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) not just one step ahead, but about 3 steps ahead, and gaining steps each year. [So the strategy](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) has to be a very high level one, because playing whack-a-mole won't work. **\[**[**Sources**](https://sources.news/p/hollywood-has-no-idea-what-to-do?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🛢️** [**Fracking Data Centers**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/west-texas-data-center-nvidia-e38a4678?ref=spyglass.org) – Forget OpenAI working on [magical new methods of financing](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) to build their own data centers, we now have *two year old startups* doing the same. Poolside teaming up with CoreWeave feels like [yet another layer](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) in the cycle. They clearly think they have a unique opportunity thanks to a natural gas pipeline in Texas, which sort of feels like a variation of [Patrick Collison's old joke](https://x.com/patrickc/status/591724846280679426?ref=spyglass.org) about SaaS ads and airports – only this isn't really a joke as much as it's reality: if a pocket of power generation appears, a data center *will* form around it. CoreWeave will be the anchor tenant in 'Horizon', supplying Poolside with enough NVIDIA chips to train their own models for their coding products. [Naturally](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/), NVIDIA is an investor in both CoreWeave and Poolside. The startup is also in the midst of [a new $2B round](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/exclusive-poolside-talks-coreweave-backer-magnetar-new-funding?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) ($14B post) led by Magnetar, [the largest investor in](https://spyglass.org/weavework/)... CoreWeeeeeave. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/west-texas-data-center-nvidia-e38a4678?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **🍎🦚** [**Apple TV + Peacock**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/peacock-apple-tv-bundle-launches-discount-shared-shows-1236402928/?ref=spyglass.org) – With the great [re-bundling](https://spyglass.org/espn-fox-one-sports-bundle/) well [underway](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/), Apple finds their first partner in the form of Peacock, the other sub-scale player in the space – especially if [Paramount scoops up](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) HBO Max ([preventing Apple from doing the same](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/)). This makes sense as it gives Apple TV subscribers more sports while it gives Peacock subscribers [better content](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/). It also creates a new incentive to sign up for Apple's own 'Apple One' bundle, as you get an even better deal on Peacock. Mainly, I enjoy that [Apple dropped the '+'](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) just in time to partner with a service which brings their own '+' to the table in the form of 'Peacock Premium Plus' – alliteration FTW, redundant branding FTL. Assuming any takeover of WBD takes months, if not *years* ([if it ever happens](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%BF%20Warner%20Bros%20Rebuffs%20Paramount%20Offer)), might Apple add HBO Max and/or Paramount+ to the mix next? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/peacock-apple-tv-bundle-launches-discount-shared-shows-1236402928/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "Yes, I do love *Winds of Winter*. I haven’t lost interest in it. I’m still working on it, but honestly, I love these other things, too. I don’t have any kids. Some of you probably have kids. Maybe you have more than one kid, Johnny and Freddie and Susie. Maybe some of them become coke heads, and you still love them." – **George R. R. Martin**, [ostensibly explaining](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/george-r-r-martin-wild-cards-dark-winds-robert-redford-1236398436/?ref=spyglass.org) the status [of *Wild Cards*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/george-r-r-martins-wild-cards-moves-from-hulu-to-peacock-4146739/?ref=spyglass.org), but also explaining where on Earth the next *Song of Ice and Fire* book is – over 14 years since the last one was published. Hell, *even the show ended over six years ago*. [With many](https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/#:~:text=The%20trailer%20for%20A%20Knight%20of%20the%20Seven%20Kingdoms%20looks%20promising%20%E2%80%93%20sort%20of%20a%20more%20comedic%20take%20on%20Westeros.%20Almost%20Deadwood%20vibes.%20Only%20six%20episodes%20which%20are%20apparently%20just%2030%20minutes%20each.%20And%20yes%2C%20George%20R.%20R.%20Martin%20has%20signed%20off%20on%20all%20of%20them%2C%20which%20has%20been%20an%20issue%20in%20the%20past...%20%5BTHR%5D) [other projects coming](https://spyglass.org/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-finale-hbo/) [and going](https://spyglass.org/remake-game-of-thrones-please/) in between. Is [that movie](https://spyglass.org/game-of-thrones-movie/) still in the works too? --- ### Asides... - We're entering a strange world where [living celebrities](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) are trying to entice people to [use their images](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) on AI networks, while the likeness of deceased figures are being pulled – **MLK** being a prime example on **Sora**. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/16/openai-pauses-sora-video-generations-of-martin-luther-king-jr/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Videos can now be **longer** with **storyboarding** capabilities, as capacity constraints seem to be easing while content restraints keep closing in... **\[**[**@OpenAI**](https://x.com/openai/status/1978661828419822066?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Speaking of data center power sources, **Amazon** is offering a "first look" at their Washington **nuclear plant** (due in the early 2030s) which would use small modular reactors to output just about 1GW (if it works). **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/801257/amazon-nuclear-energy-reactor-first-look?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - There's both a [monetary black hole](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) joke and a singularity joke to be made in **OpenAI's** move to hire *an actual* **black hole physicist**, so I'll just leave it there. **\[**[**Axios**](https://www.axios.com/2025/10/16/openai-science-black-hole-physicist?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Good on **Ron Conway** for backing away from Salesforce in protest of **Marc Benioff's** buffoonish comments in [ongoing attempts](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/us/salesforce-benioff-ice.html?ref=spyglass.org) to get a seat [at the table](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/) he's seemingly not invited to [without the](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) [(in)appropriate fealty](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/us/salesforce-resign-benioff-ron-conway.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It doesn't take much reading between the lines at **Dreamforce** to see that Benioff is sweating the **AI revolution** [washing over](https://spyglass.org/ai-day-of-demos/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%91%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%92%BB%20Enterprise%20Philosophy%20and%20The%20First%20Wave%20of%20AI) [his company](https://spyglass.org/whopper-of-a-week/#:~:text=%22I%20was%20like,the%20phrase%20%22Agentforce%22.), as he has to backtrack on [his strong stances on the competition](https://spyglass.org/does-microsoft-have-an-ai-problem/?ref=spyglass-newsletter) in the past. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/salesforce-ceo-shifts-ai-strategy-openai-threat-looms?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Does the **M5 iPad Pro's** new chips signal Apple's broader efforts into **home automation**? Including, eventually with [the 'HomePad'](https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%BE%20Apple%27s%20Robotic%20Updates) [new device](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/)? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/799911/ipad-pro-thread-smart-home-apple-home-hub?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - One clear side effect of the end of the **penny** is likely to be an increased push to use **mobile payments**. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/business/penny-circulation-retailers-change.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I missed this last month, but **Joseph Kosinski's** reboot of **Miami Vice** is underway, targeting an August 2027 release. I guess *Top Gun 3* and *F2* will have to wait. [Still sad](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=Thoughts%20On...-,%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Tron%203%20Bombs,-%E2%80%93%20Alright%2C%20it%20wasn%27t) he didn't get his crack at *Tron 3*... **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/joseph-kosinski-miami-vice-movie-lands-august-2027-release-1236373734/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - A wild story about the cracking of the **Kryptos** code found in the statue outside of the **CIA** headquarters. It's a combo of inadvertent social engineering mixed with a bit of perhaps illness-related sloppiness, and there's quite the legal unease about the whole thing with [an auction](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/science/kryptos-sculpture-cia-solution-auction.html?ref=spyglass.org) for the final key upcoming... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/science/kryptos-cia-solution-sanborn-auction.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... The limited edition [$1 California Steve Jobs coin](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/15/steve-jobs-coin-design/?ref=spyglass.org) which will cost $13.25 to purchase during its run in 2026 (or you can get [all four in the current collection](https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-releases-2026-american-innovation-one-dollar-coin-program-designs?ref=spyglass.org), one of which is also the Cray-1 Supercomputer in Wisconsin, for $27.50 – [Trump coin not included](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/#:~:text=Can%20Donald%20Trump%20legally%20mint%20a%20%241%20coin%20with%20his%20face%20even%20though%20he%27s%20still%20alive%2C%20which%20goes%20against%20a%20law%20established%20in%201866%3F%20Probably%20not%2C%20but%20he%27s%20going%20to%20do%20it%20anyway.%20Next%20question%3A%20will%20it%20come%20in%20Cosmic%20Orange%3F%20%5BNYT%5D)). Maybe not the best likeness, but still sort of wonderful. And yes, they are legal tender. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/2026-American-Innovation-Unc-Reverse-California-1.jpg)](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/15/steve-jobs-coin-design/?ref=spyglass.org) ### Apple's AI Brain Bleed URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-talent/ Last updated: 2025-11-24T10:33:03.000Z Picture this: Mark Zuckerberg is with his boys walking by the Blue Bottle in Cupertino. He notices Tim Cook inside with a group of Apple employees. He goes over and knocks on the window to get Tim's attention. Zuck shouts through the window, "do you like apples?" Tim nods, "yeah." Zuck pulls out a napkin with the name 'Ke Yang' written on it and slams it against the window. "Well I got your AI guy. How you like them apples?" [This scene](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z8pQds%5FGwQ&ref=spyglass.org) popped into my head upon reading the news that Meta has poached one of Apple's key AI employees. I'm sorry, I should be more specific, because this has happened *about a dozen times now*. [Here's Mark Gurman with the report for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/apple-s-newly-tapped-head-of-chatgpt-like-ai-search-effort-to-leave-for-meta?ref=spyglass.org): > The Apple Inc. executive leading an effort to develop AI-driven web search is stepping down, marking the latest in a string of high-profile exits from the company’s artificial intelligence division. > > The executive, Ke Yang, is leaving for Meta Platforms Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter. Just weeks ago, he was appointed head of a team called Answers, Knowledge and Information, or AKI. The group is developing features to make the Siri voice assistant more ChatGPT-like by adding the ability to pull information from the web. I honestly go back and forth about how important or unimportant it is that Apple is [far behind in the AI race](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) right now. After all, it's clearly still early with so many pieces moving insanely fast. Certainly [there's a school of thought](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) that Apple should simply sit back and wait while OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and everyone else battle [with their cash cannons](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) to see how it all shakes out. But the other reality here may be that the field is moving so fast and is so vital to the future of well, everything, that Apple may *never* be able to catch up in technology that ends up being core to everything they do. As always, the reality is probably somewhere in between, but I tend to lean towards the notion that Apple is playing with fire here simply because the only way they're going to be able to enter the space, even later, is with the right talent around the table. And, well, *they clearly can't keep the talent around the table*! And the reason they can't is clearly because they've so badly bungled their AI initiatives to date. So it's sort of this doom loop in which Apple finds itself – seemingly just months from having to ship the new Siri. And they can't afford to fuck it up this time because [they already did that once](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). So... this is not a great look nor situation. Speaking of "afford", Zuck must smell Apple's weakness here. And of all the current Big Tech rivalries (so, Elon Musk and Sam Altman aside), [clearly](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/) Meta hates Apple more than anyone else. Zuck obviously feels like Cook screwed him on the ATT stuff back in the day, but even post-recovery, the situation remains that Meta is completely beholden to Apple on many fronts because they control the devices on which Meta's products are used. From their social networks to their smart glasses. [He's trying like hell](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) to change that, but it's [going to take years](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/), maybe decades, if it *ever* works. And so Zuck is shifting the battlefield to one he can control. While Zuck has [struggled](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) to get some of the top AI talent in the world to accept his ["Godfather" offers](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) – seemingly mainly because many are more mission-oriented around AI and Meta is well, [Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) – he keeps upping the ante. God knows [what he paid to finally convince](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Meta%20Poaches%20Thinking%20Machines%20Co%2DFounder) Andrew Tulloch to turn his back on Thinking Machines Lab, but it clearly starts with a "b" and ends with an "s". So yeah, Zuck is willing to do whatever it takes to try to win here. And it's [perhaps not completely irrational](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) when you consider how much [all of these companies are spending on AI infrastructure](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/). What good is all of that if you don't have the talent to utilize it? That doesn't make all of this any less insane. But the one company *not* spending [hundreds of billions on AI servers](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/)? The company Meta is clearly having no problem poaching from. Low-hanging fruit, as it were. And it has the added benefit of screwing over Apple at a critical time. For Zuck, it's a type of payback that money can't buy. Well, technically it can. And has. Apple is in real trouble here. Again, not because they need to be full-on in the AI race right now. But because they keep losing all the people that will allow them to enter it at some point. That alone may make the case for making a massive acquisition. Is, say, $100B too much to pay for a talent acquisition? I mean, [undoubtedly not ](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/)for Zuck! [But for Apple](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/)... The problem is that even if they did pull such a trigger, Apple would still have to *retain* that talent. And they have not proven adept at doing that! Beyond the money – they would clearly need to pay these people tens of millions or perhaps *hundreds of millions* (in stock at least) to retain them. But just as vital would be putting a world-class team and game plan [around them](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/), so they're not tempted by Zuck's billions. Only really Anthropic has a proven ability to do that thus far. Meanwhile, Apple's historic strength: a culture that values consistency, secrecy, scarcity, and [yes, longevity](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/), may not be a culture best suited to compete in AI. [Clearly](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/). While I like what I think is Apple's general game plan at the moment, [to retreat to their strength in hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/), as Apple has told everyone for decades: it's hardware *plus* *software* that's the key to making the devices sing. And if AI is the key to future software... Well, [they need to be there](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) at some point. And it's not just hard to do that without the right talent, it's impossible. How do you like them apples, Apple? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/0bec94d9-0769-47a6-9ed2-82f7e1bc226e.png) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Weighs the Voting MachineWill they do a big AI deal? Should they?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-433.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_with_arms_pulling_the_lever_on_a_slot_ma_80ef1e75-aeae-455d-8164-161acd9fe9e8_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) [Apple’s Flight to SafetyA refocusing on design and hardware might be a good sign…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-432.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_The_Apple_logo_surrounded_by_beautiful_design_flourish__054afdb5-c6ea-488c-a7e0-995ca28aa3b7_0-2-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-434.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) ### Signal: An M5 Smack in the Face 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-an-m5-smack-in-the-face/ Last updated: 2025-10-15T16:57:09.000Z [As expected](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D-,One%20more%20thing%3A,-Per%20Gurman%27s%20report) (and [previewed by Apple execs yesterday](https://x.com/gregjoz/status/1978172574782665062?ref=spyglass.org)), a few new Apple products [quietly hit today](https://www.techmeme.com/251015/p28?ref=spyglass.org#a251015p28) via press releases (no videos I've seen yet). And they're all about the new M5 chip: MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, Vision Pro. Again, nothing too surprising, except [perhaps](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1978449889034948836?ref=spyglass.org) how they're actually showing more specs for the iPad Pro? Or the fact that there's [*no trade-in option*](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/15/discontinued-m2-vision-pro-not-available-for-trade-in/?ref=spyglass.org) for the first Vision Pro to "upgrade" here. That seemingly doesn't speak well to demand for a used version of the [very inconvenient](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/) (but still [technologically impressive](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/)) device. But you'd think the fact that Apple didn't lower the price of the Vision Pro from the silly $3,500 would have opened a market for, say, a $1,999 pre-owned M2 Vision Pro? I mean, it still wouldn't have sold well, but maybe some enterprises and/or developers would have bought them? It's also just an extraordinary middle finger to those of us who went out and bought the Vision Pro on day one like schmucks. Granted, we went in eyes wide open, [literally](https://spyglass.org/vision-profoundly-uncool/). But still, you'd think Apple would want to keep those early adopters most interested in the ecosystem by giving them some sort of upgrade deal? But nope, not Apple. Not even a free new Y-band – [sorry, "Dual Knit Band"](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/10/apple-vision-pro-upgraded-with-the-m5-chip-and-dual-knit-band/?ref=spyglass.org). You want Apple's admission that [their initial straps](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/strap-in-vision-pro-owners?ref=spyglass.org) [weren't any good](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-protector/) while this one is actually "comfortable"? [That'll be $99](https://www.apple.com/shop/product/DUAL%5FKNIT%5FBAND%5FSA/apple-vision-pro-dual-knit-band?ref=spyglass.org). Basically: enjoy your newly slow and outdated Vision Pro, losers. ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube’s EyeballsThe video podcast partnership may portend a bundle…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-431.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_eyeball_watching_youtube_--ar_169_--v_7_e6a927a4-7826-44cb-8f70-14fb3fd740fa_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) --- ### Take One... **🗣️** [**Eddy Cue on Apple's Hollywood Goals**](https://www.theringer.com/podcasts/the-town-with-matthew-belloni/2025/10/14/apples-true-intentions-in-hollywood-with-top-exec-eddy-cue?ref=spyglass.org) – Kudos to Matt Belloni for [trying](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/apples-true-intentions-in-hollywood-with-top-exec-eddy-cue/id1612131897?i=1000731869379&ref=spyglass.org) like hell to get Cue to say *something* interesting about [Apple's strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/), but all we really get is something along the lines of the goal is "to make good movies" (which, subjectively [they really *did not*](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) [until *F1*](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/)) and "good TV shows" (which, subjectively [they *have*](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/)) and some variation of the standard Apple talking point about the focus being on "the best, not the most" ([or "first"](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/), in the case of many of Apple's devices). The biggest [headline](https://9to5mac.com/2025/10/14/eddy-cue-says-apple-tv-has-significantly-more-subscribers-than-analysts-estimate/?ref=spyglass.org) was probably Cue saying that Apple TV – the artist formerly known as Apple TV+ – has "significantly more" than the estimated 40M to 45M subscribers. Oh yes, and some color around said name change which amounted to a variation of [my opening paragraph on the news](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) (there was no non-plus, so why was it 'plus'?). Of course, there *is* a non-plus on the hardware and app side, but Cue seemed almost flippant on that – could that be [a sign](https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/) the Apple TV set top box will get a name change? And, of course, he danced around the notion that they [could buy](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) Warner Bros Discovery, which [almost](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/) reads like that his thoughts might be different if [Paramount doesn't buy them](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) and the studio separates... He also deflected a question about their non-moves in podcasting, which was interesting given [today's news](https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/) about Netflix and... **\[**[**The Ringer**](https://www.theringer.com/podcasts/the-town-with-matthew-belloni/2025/10/14/apples-true-intentions-in-hollywood-with-top-exec-eddy-cue?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "We're hearing that some criminals are stopping dealing drugs and moving on to the phone business because it's more lucrative." – **Sarah Jones**, the UK's policing minister, [talking about](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20vlpwrzwdo?ref=spyglass.org) the stolen phone epidemic in London. Amazingly, it sounds like *one phone* (seemingly with 'Find My' still enabled) was able to locate *thousands* of others which led to arrests which may have shut down the main pipeline of the thefts. As someone who had [my iPhone swiped out of my hands](https://spyglass.org/an-iphone-stolen/) in broad daylight on the streets of London, I hope so! --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• ChatGPT Is Bringing Sexy Back** ****• Apple's Robotic Updates** ****• Stargate Competitor Buys Big Data Center Company** ****• A Tim Cook Labubu!** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs URL: https://spyglass.org/spotify-netflix-video-podcasts-youtube/ Last updated: 2025-11-24T10:32:44.000Z Spotify partnering with Netflix on anything would be a big deal given the position of each in their respective markets. But [partnering around video podcasts](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/14/spotifys-video-podcasts-are-coming-to-netflix-next-year/?ref=spyglass.org) seems particularly interesting given who they're both clearly aiming at... On one hand, this is an admission that Spotify can't possibly hope to catch YouTube in video podcasts. No surprise there just given YouTube's scale – a scale which has already pushed the world's biggest video service to also be [*the world's biggest podcasting service*](https://spyglass.org/pod-is-dead/), without even really trying. Spotify could either paddle against the current and try to get more exclusive content – but they already had that in the form of... [the largest podcast in the world](https://500ish.com/the-end-of-podcastings-innocence-539d261e6ec1?ref=spyglass.org), and even restricting Joe Rogan from YouTube didn't really work, and now he's back – or they could figure out another path. On paper, the world's largest streaming music service partnering with the world's largest streaming video service sounds sort of terrifying. Except that technically, YouTube is [bigger at music than Spotify](https://www.businessofapps.com/data/music-streaming-market/?ref=spyglass.org) and bigger at video than Netflix. Add in the aforementioned podcasting, and they're sort of the hidden elephant in many rooms.[1](#one) Netflix, of course, has a different agenda. While they're increasingly [what cable used to be](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/) for [many homes](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/), they can't possibly hope to scale the way YouTube has without UGC. This Spotify deal gives them UGC, in a way. I mean, *The Ringer* content is obviously more professional than just anyone with a phone recording themselves. But it's also, perhaps, just a start. Netflix will continue to say they have no desire to fully do UGC, and that's undoubtedly true *right now*. But [as they go further down the advertising path](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/)... the more content the better. Basically as [Ted Sarandos said in the Q1 earnings](https://variety.com/2025/digital/news/netflix-spotify-video-podcasts-streaming-deal-1236552447/?ref=spyglass.org) when asked specifically about podcasts. This is a competition for literal eyeballs. And YouTube dominates them in all these verticals. Oddly not in "premium" content where Netflix dominates, but it only feels like a matter of time until they're back competing in that world too, especially as they keep expanding YouTube Premium. [Remember](https://spyglass.org/a-mac-a-day/#:~:text=I%20am%20quite%20excited%20for%20the%20second%20half%20of%20the%20sixth%20season%20of%20Cobra%20Kai.%20But%20it%27s%20also%20bittersweet%2C%20as%20it%27s%20the%20final%20season%20they%27re%20doing%20of%20what%20has%20been%20such%20a%20great%20nostalgic%20show.%20Sort%20of%20strange%20that%20it%20started%20on%20YouTube%3F%20%5BYouTube%5D) when *Cobra Kai* launched as a YouTube original only to be handed on a silver platter to Netflix? Yeah, they're gonna want another shot at this at some point. It's Google! Initiatives are cancelled only to be rebooted only to be cancelled only to be rebooted... The fact that as a part of this deal, [Netflix is requiring](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/business/media/netflix-spotify-podcast-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) that the videos *not be posted to YouTube in full* – i.e. only clips for promotional purposes – says all you need to know here. While Spotify can't compete with YouTube in video, Netflix can and will. For *The Ringer*, which is, of course, owned by Spotify, this makes a lot of sense too. Why not hitch your wagon to the world's largest streaming service as a way to differentiate from everyone else just battling for eyeballs on YouTube? This is a greenfield on Netflix. Anything the service promotes will get millions and millions of views. The fact that founder Bill Simmons has maintained his connections to the premium video world with various docuseries, including for Netflix at times, can't hurt either. (And yes, there's [the growing sports angle for Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/).) But will Netflix be able to lure others? Again, maybe if they upsell the notion of crossing into other premium video offerings. Or if Spotify and Netflix deepen the relationship... As [I wrote back in July](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167799180/a-netflixspotify-partnership?ref=spyglass.org) around the reports that Netflix and Spotify were discussing partnering on certain types of content: > Continuing to do more "traditional" television things like talent and award shows is obvious for Netflix, the conversations with Spotify are potentially more interesting if they also bring about a television/music bundle. That's not what this report says, but it seems like a logical extension of any partnership for the most popular streaming television and most popular streaming music platforms. After all, Apple and Amazon already have such TV/Music bundles internally... Third parties have been bundling these two, but a formal bundle is probably just a matter of time, especially if they can collaborate on their fledgling ads businesses. A world which, yes, YouTube dominates. **One more thing:** what on Earth is Apple doing here? The company that literally gave podcasting a name continues to fall further back in the market here. Perhaps [the hiring of NPR's podcast chief](https://9to5mac.com/2025/10/07/apple-reportedly-hiring-nprs-podcasting-strategy-chief-with-spotify-background/?ref=spyglass.org) (who was at Gimlet/Spotify before that) signals a change of strategy? Might we see video podcasts come to Apple TV+ – [sorry, Apple TV](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) – too? [Or a 'Podcasts+' offering](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-podcasts/) as part of the Apple One bundle? There's [someone out there](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/) twisting [in the wind](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/#:~:text=Is%20Howard%20Stern%27s%20would%2Dbe%20renewal%20with%20SiriusXM%20hung%20up%20on%20%22ownership%22%3F%20THR%20interprets%20that%20as%20in%20the%20company%2C%20but%20he%27s%20already%20a%20large%20shareholder%3F%20Doesn%27t%20it%20seem%20more%20likely%20that%20he%20would%20want%20ownership%20of%20his%20content%20as%20some%20other%20top%20podcasters%20are%20getting%20these%20days%3F%20%5BTHR%5D) if they want to do [a proper premium](https://spyglass.org/apple-podcasts-plus/) offering... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/Gemini_Generated_Image_36h0ek36h0ek36h0-1.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Pod is DeadPodcasting evolved away from Apple and towards... YouTube?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-428.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Aug-26-Podcast-Illustration-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/pod-is-dead/) [Can Apple Make Premium Podcasts Happen?SiriusXM either thinks so or hopes so or just hey, why not?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-427.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-08-05-15.43.07---A-cartoon-of-a-person-with-headphones-on--listening-to-a-podcast-and-having-fun.-The-person-is-laughing-with-joy.-Behind-them--money-is-raining-down-i-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-podcasts-plus/) [Apple Should Sign Howard Stern and Launch ‘Podcasts+’They may not care about podcasting, but they \*do\* care about Services…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-426.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Howard-Stern-Podcast-Apple-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-howard-stern-podcasts-plus/) [‘Apple TV+’ Podcasts Should Just Be ‘Apple Podcasts+’?Why have podcasts that have nothing to do with the service or app or set top box of that name?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-430.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-25-at-1.58.04-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-podcasts/) [The Greatest Trick Netflix Ever Pulled......was convincing the world they weren’t interested in live sports![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-429.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-26-at-8.07.19-PM-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) --- 1 It is interesting how OpenAI's Sora has [jumped out to a quick lead](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) in AI-focused video, [even though YouTube just announced their own major push there](https://www.wired.com/story/youtube-thinks-ai-is-its-next-big-bang/?ref=spyglass.org). Perhaps it's another market they will with time and scale, or maybe it's something that doesn't work on YouTube because the community rejects it? [↩](#) ### Signal: Apple TV++ for You++ 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-tv-for-you/ Last updated: 2025-10-15T16:54:33.000Z Everyone, [including myself](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3m33npyehc22c?ref=spyglass.org), had fun dunking on Apple yesterday for the seemingly odd strategy around rebranding 'Apple TV+' to 'Apple TV' – which is, of course, the name of not one, but *two* other products they operate. Presumably there's a bigger strategy here and perhaps it's a part of a larger home play. But it's just really, really strange to announce such a shift at the bottom of a tangential press release... [Apple TV+ Minus the PlusA simple solution to confuse more people…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-424.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-13-at-11.31.50---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Take Two... **🍪** [**The OpenAI/Broadcom Deal**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-broadcom-forge-multibillion-dollar-chip-development-deal-58d930d1?ref=spyglass.org) – Another day, another massive OpenAI chip deal. This time, Broadcom is helping them make their own chips — something which has long been rumored, but [you'd think the NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) and/or [AMD deals](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal) would have [slowed](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1970162221406618027?ref=spyglass.org) that roll. Nope. This deal is [said to be](https://openai.com/index/openai-and-broadcom-announce-strategic-collaboration/?ref=spyglass.org) for enough chips to consume 10GW of power – same as the NVIDIA deal and more than the "mere" 6GW of power the AMD chips are targeted to consume. Can OpenAI actually scale brand new chips built from scratch to this level? We'll see, they say they've been working together on the chips for 18 months with the first set to come online the second half of next year (apparently in both [OpenAI's own data centers](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), which presumably won't be online by then, but also in [partner data centers](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/)). Perhaps most notably, [there's no funny business](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/technology/openai-broadcom-chips-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) arrangement [here](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) as Broadcom is neither investing in OpenAI nor is OpenAI investing in Broadcom. Just [straight cash, homie](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07G23zMGa4g&ref=spyglass.org). Well, probably [debt](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/) – *to someone*. That said, naturally, Broadcom's stock shot up on the news and it's now nearly *a $1.7T company*. [The 'all boats rise' strategy](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) still going strong... **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-broadcom-forge-multibillion-dollar-chip-development-deal-58d930d1?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **📺** [**TBPN's Rise**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/technology/tbpn-silicon-valley.html?ref=spyglass.org) – Fun profile of Jordi Hays and John Coogan. In some ways, it does feel like this is an evolution of what *TechCrunch* was [back in the day](https://spyglass.org/the-crunch-in-techcrunch/) – of course, we routinely and sometimes famously pissed off those working in Silicon Valley as much as we boosted it, whereas they're more intentionally "tech-positive". But it's a different world now, with the tech and startup industry so much larger than it was back then (and with every major news org having the tech criticism angles *more than* covered), to the point where a "SportsCenter for Tech" makes a lot of sense. In some ways, it reminds me of what we sort of thought *TechCrunch TV* would be (true story: [OMG/JK](https://techcrunch.com/collection/omg-jk/?ref=spyglass.org) was modeled, in part, on *Pardon the Interruption*), but again, the timing is better now, both from an industry perspective and a technology perspective – the process of "going live" was a lot of work back then. [Hard to believe this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYmQEZRonOc&ref=spyglass.org) was [*over* *15 years ago*](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/07/omgjk-episode-2-next-of-kin/?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/technology/tbpn-silicon-valley.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Is Xbox Imploding?** ****• RIP TiVo** ****• Meta's Ray-Ban Display Review** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple TV+ Minus the Plus URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-streaming/ Last updated: 2025-11-24T10:33:21.000Z To be honest, it was always a bit odd that there was no non-plus. I should say, there was no non-plus *service*, because there were – and are – other 'Apple TV' products. Namely, the set-top box of the same name, but also the app that basically transforms *other* set-top boxes (and televisions) into that set-top box. But now 'Apple TV' will be the name of the streaming service as well. From [the press release](https://www.apple.com/tv-pr/news/2025/10/apple-original-films-blockbuster-feature-f1-the-movie-from-joseph-kosinski-to-make-global-streaming-debut-on-friday-december-12-2025/?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple TV+ is now simply Apple TV, with a vibrant new identity. Ahead of its global streaming debut on Apple TV, the film continues to be available for purchase on participating digital platforms, including the Apple TV app, Amazon Prime Video, Fandango at Home and more. Oh I'm sorry, I said "press release" but I didn't specify *which* press release, which I should have because this release is not about the new branding for Apple TV. In fact, this mention is buried *eight paragraphs deep* into a release about the *F1* movie coming to streaming in December. That's it, that's how Apple announced this fairly major rebrand. It's a move so weird that it's only logical to assume there's some other shoe set to drop soon. [Perhaps tomorrow](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/) in the form of a new Apple TV set top box? [Might](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1977777369843953784?ref=spyglass.org) *that* be getting a rebrand as well?[1](#one) That would seemingly make more sense. Because everyone seems awfully confused right now. Then again, I've always been confused about this branding. [As I wrote back in March](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-podcasts/): > To be fair, several elements of Apple TV have long been a branding nightmare. There's the OG set top box called 'Apple TV' (though it was originally named 'iTV' before [a branding dispute ended that](https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-apples-steve-jobs-tried-to-buy-itv-the-brand-not-the-company-1469732784?ref=spyglass.org)). Then there's the 'Apple TV' the app – which lives on Apple TV, the box, but also on other services, [including now Android devices](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-android/). Then there's 'Apple TV+', the service. This resides within Apple TV, the app, which again, resides on Apple TV, the box, but also elsewhere. So now Apple TV, the app, will include Apple TV, the service. Well, if you pay for it. Unless this move is to get ahead of a free, [ad-supported](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/) [offering](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/)? But then why would you rebrand the paid streaming service away from a 'plus' brand that is commonly used to denote a more premium tier? Have I mentioned that Apple TV, the service, which resides on either Apple TV, the set top box, or Apple TV, the app, houses both television and film content? I guess that's fine because the only way to watch Apple TV, the service, is on your TV. Or Mac. Or iPad. Or iPhone. [Or Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/)! I also get the argument that it's now just 'Apple TV' because that's what everyone was calling it anyway. "Oh *Slow Horses*? Yeah, that's on Apple TV." That kind of thing. Of course they have also been doing that with the movies, such as *F1*. "Oh *F1*? Yeah that's an Apple TV movie." Technically, it's an *Apple Studios* production, but if you asked 100 people, I'm guessing 99 of them have never heard of Apple Studios. Or they think it's where The Beatles recorded their albums.[2](#two) I honestly don't know how much any of this matters,[3](#three) the far bigger issue was [correcting the overall strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/), which was seemingly [working for television content](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) but [not movie content](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/). They're clearly [on a better path now](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) but, [well](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/), there are still [hiccups](https://spyglass.org/the-savant-apple/)! This branding issue is just sort of sloppy for Apple. You expect this type of branding fiasco [from Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/) or [Warner Bros Discovery](https://spyglass.org/its-hbo-max-again/), but not Apple. Maybe they were inspired by [Disney's inspired move](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) to brand their new ESPN streaming service as simply 'ESPN'? Of course, they still have 'Disney+' as well... **One more thing:** we're all still waiting on [that *actual* Apple TV](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-set/) – as in *a television set*. After literally decades of rumors at this point, I think it's safe to assume [that ship has sailed](https://spyglass.org/apple-touch-television/). But in a way, it's more needed than ever with other TV makers now making moves to increasingly [shove shit](https://spyglass.org/the-chaos-ladder/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%BA%20LG%20Smart%20TVs%20Now%20Show%20Screensaver%20Ads) – [namely, ads](https://spyglass.org/roku-adds-ads/) – [into their](https://500ish.com/the-advertising-first-television-a8d1929d99ea?ref=spyglass.org) core TV experiences. Maybe Apple's new [home device thing](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) can save us? --- **Update**: [As Numeric Citizen responds on Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/numericcitizen.me/post/3m34ipfq32s2h?ref=spyglass.org), what if Apple went with 'HomePod TV' for the new hardware branding? I like it! Especially if we're about to get [a new range of home devices](https://spyglass.org/apples-new-hip-to-be-square-home-device-2/) running [a new 'homeOS'](https://spyglass.org/the-imac-desk-lamp-homepod/)... --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [It Wasn’t the Apple TV+ Spend, It Was the Apple TV+ StrategyAnd the hope is that they’ve now corrected it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-421.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/01252024_Movie-Argylle_1_170620-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) [Apple TV+ Became HBO Before HBO Could Become NetflixApple TV+ Is the New HBOMax just isn’t what it used to be. Apple TV+ is where you need to go for must-watch prestige television.WIREDCondé Nast I’ve been saying this for years. I mean, I really have been saying this for years. While most everyone was focused on![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-422.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Slow-Horses-Photo-Custom-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/) [Apple Made the Right Call and a Stupid Decision with ‘Wolfs’The movie would have flopped in theaters but still…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-423.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wolfs-teaser-trailer-052924-22cd578455d94219999905f3ac2ac14e-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) --- 1 As much fun as it would be to see 'iTV' resurrected, perhaps with a nod to Steve Jobs, as anyone who lives in the UK can tell you, we still have [one big reason why](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITV%5F%28TV%5Fnetwork%29?ref=spyglass.org) that's not happening. Plus – plus? – there hasn't been a new "i" product/branding in a while. It feels like an early 2000s thing. [↩](#) 2 Conflating, of course, [Abbey Road Studios](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbey%5FRoad%5FStudios?ref=spyglass.org) and [Apple Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%5FRecords?ref=spyglass.org), which was The Beatles record company, a part of (the truly excellent named) [Apple Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%5FCorps?ref=spyglass.org) – which eventually would be in a long dispute with Apple Computer (now Apple Inc). Settling that dispute finally got The Beatles, one of Steve Jobs' favorite bands, on to iTunes. [↩](#) 3 Nice new color accents at least. I'm not sure how "vibrant" it feels. In a way, it almost reminds me more of [the old "Flower Power" iMac](https://www.cultofmac.com/apple-history/flower-power-imac-blue-dalmatian?ref=spyglass.org). [↩](#) ### Signal: One Subversion After Another 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/ Last updated: 2025-10-15T16:54:45.000Z A couple weeks back, upon seeing the bad box office numbers for *One Battle After Another*, [I wrote up some thoughts](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) around how Warner Bros probably messed up the marketing for P.T. Anderson's latest film. Well, now I've seen the movie. And now I'm *sure* of it. They really fucked up the marketing. *Because they had to*. First and foremost, as you've undoubtedly heard, [the movie is excellent](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/one-battle-after-another/?ref=spyglass.org). But it's excellent in ways that the trailer and other associated marketing just does not convey **at all**. That was my initial read: despite loving all of PTA's movies, I thought this one looked too quirky for its own good. It was being framed as almost like a zany screwball comedy. Make no mistake, the movie *is* funny, but [it's perhaps](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DPuZGBSDQyI?ref=spyglass.org) the most subversive film of the past decade – certainly of those made by a big studio. And the fact that they released it under the current administration is sort of wild! It's wild that I have to say that, but we have, for example, [television shows](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/) and [projects being cancelled](https://spyglass.org/the-savant-apple/) left and right. Well, mainly just right... So now [my thought](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DPwVOTsCGR2?ref=spyglass.org) is that they had no choice but to market *One Battle After Another* as they did if they had any hope of getting it released. The bizzaro trailer allowed the ultimate middle finger to the current administration to slip under the radar. And while it continues to bomb at the box office, it's one of those movies that will stand the test of time and will feel even more important in hindsight. Money isn't everything. [One Box Office Battle After Another‘One Battle After Another’ is by all accounts fantastic. The marketing hasn’t been.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-418.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OBAA-banner-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Take One... **😎** [**Apple's Pivot from 'Vision Air'**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-12/inside-apple-s-glasses-pivot-when-apple-is-launching-m5-macbook-pro-ipad-pro?cmpid=BBD101225%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251012&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) – The most interesting tidbit is the notion that [Apple's Smart Glasses](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) could run the full visionOS when tethered to a Mac, but a stripped-down version when paired with an iPhone. I think I like this concept of having different features if you're on the go or at your desk (and presumably it would help with battery life as well – and would the iPhone be [the "puck" here?](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/)), but there are obviously cognitive risks with that... More broadly, Mark Gurman brings up the notion that the shift of focus towards the glasses is an acknowledgement that the Vision Pro hasn't worked at the scale Apple would like ([no shit](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/)) and that even a 'Vision Air' [wouldn't likely](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-strategy/) change that equation. At the same time, [as I wrote about a couple weeks back](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/), they might try to pivot the narrative around the Vision Pro under a broader 'Vision' initiative, alongside the Smart Glasses. It would be the highest-end model, almost like a Mac Pro – something way too expensive for most people. From that perch, they can [keep trying](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/) to [make it work](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/) as, say, [a premium content device](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/) with immersive movies and [live sports](https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8F%80%20Apple%20Finally%20Fulfilling%20the%20Immersive%20Vision%20Pro%20Promise) and the like, while some of that work eventually trickles down... **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-12/inside-apple-s-glasses-pivot-when-apple-is-launching-m5-macbook-pro-ipad-pro?cmpid=BBD101225%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=251012&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) **🔒\]** **One more thing:** Per Gurman's report it sounds like a slew of new Apple devices will be announced this week, not with a bang (event), but with a press release (and [maybe some videos](https://mgs.blog/apple-brings-a-john-ternus-to-a-press-release-438f9ca9909?ref=spyglass.org)). The M5 iPads Pro and baseline MacBook Pro seem ready to roll (with the M5 Pro and Max MacBook Pros coming early next year – [is there something to that cellular rumor?!](https://spyglass.org/cellular-macbook-pro/)). The new ([M5 or M4?](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167279677/apples-vision-roadmap?ref=spyglass.org)) Vision Pro too ([with a new strap?](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/strap-in-vision-pro-owners?ref=spyglass.org)). Maybe the new Apple TVs, HomePod minis, and AirTags? Given that all seem like relatively small spec boosts, the lower-key strategy probably makes sense. But what about the new Studio Displays? Mac Pros? iPad mini? [Give the people what they want: hardware.](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****•** ***Tron 3** **Bombs at Box Office** ****• Meta Poaches Thinking Machines Co-Founder** ****• Warner Bros Rebuffs Paramount Offer** ****• OpenAI's Constantly Evolving Cap Table** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: Smothering Smoldering Sora 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-smothering-smoldering-sora/ Last updated: 2025-10-15T16:54:56.000Z No sooner do I write about [the notion of celebrities joining Sora](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) does Jake Paul [disclose](https://x.com/jakepaul/status/1976411343025487977?ref=spyglass.org) that he's actually been advising them on the product and launch. It makes sense given his background and experience as a Vine OG, but the more interesting disclosure if that he might have some sort of name, image, and likeness (NIL) deal with them. Unclear if any money is trading hands yet or if it's in place for the future if/when they start to monetize (or if his stake in OpenAI is enough compensation)? Also note Mark Cuban using the network to [automatically promote](https://x.com/DylanAbruscato/status/1976419450485383470?ref=spyglass.org) his [Cost Plus Drugs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost%5FPlus%5FDrugs?ref=spyglass.org) at the end of every video he's placed in. It's the wild west out there right now, hopefully these types of deals [don't smother](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) [the smoldering service](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/). [Will a Celebrity Tsunami Hit Sora?Or will they stay back, afraid of AI and worried about IP?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-416.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_4842.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Two Takes... **🏀** [**Apple Finally Fulfilling the Immersive Vision Pro Promise**](https://www.techradar.com/streaming/entertainment/wish-you-could-be-courtside-at-a-lakers-game-put-your-vision-pro-back-on-and-fire-up-the-nba-app?ref=spyglass.org) – Apparently coming in early 2026: NBA games shot in the 'Apple Immersive' format and viewable on the Vision Pro. Well, just a few games for one team, the Los Angeles Lakers, it seems. Still, it's a start. And a good one as it doesn't sound like it's limited ([as it has been](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-immersive-content/)) to [a few minutes](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-content-release/) of footage after the fact, but *entire games* – **live**. It would be sort of wild if Apple pulls this off, but I say that mainly because it will have been *two years* since the launch of the Vision Pro and the best we've gotten to date in terms of sports are [these short few minute highlights](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/). So I assumed something about this was impossible. Clearly not. And clearly Apple should have [held the Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) until they could do this – if it's anything like the ([short, but truly awesome](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/)) Metallica concert – talk about [a selling point](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/)! If they can scale it to the entire NBA, and then other sports (like for [their MLB partnership](https://sixcolors.com/post/2024/03/mlb-for-visionos-strikes-out-on-opening-day/?ref=spyglass.org) and [soon – F1](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/)), they could [actually sell](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) Vision Pros. Wild concept, I know! **\[**[**TechRadar**](https://www.techradar.com/streaming/entertainment/wish-you-could-be-courtside-at-a-lakers-game-put-your-vision-pro-back-on-and-fire-up-the-nba-app?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🍪** [**Making Intel Great Again**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/technology/intel-chip-factory-fab52.html?ref=spyglass.org) – Hopefully it's a good sign that the company is doing a big PR push around their new 'Fab 52' producing the new 'Panther Lake' chips built using the new '18A' process. The performance [charts still have no axes](https://www.theverge.com/report/797146/intel-panther-lake-core-series-3-architecture-platform-feature-reveal?ref=spyglass.org) labels and there are no production yields percentages to share but hey... more steel [than the Eiffel Tower](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/intel-intc-debuts-new-technology-in-make-or-break-moment-for-turnaround-bid?ref=spyglass.org), more concrete [than Burj Khalifa](https://www.ft.com/content/e4b1fa29-6027-44d9-8375-b3368132dd1b?ref=spyglass.org), EUV machines the size of Winnebagos! It would be awesome to see Intel [succeed](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/) [here](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside/), but I'm still [skeptical](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside-gelsinger/) until proven otherwise. 18A basically just seems like a way to prove to the industry that 14A can work if anyone wants to bring their TSMC business home (well, metaphorically, since TSMC also has US plants now too, of course). The key seemingly remains the pressure from the Trump administration to bolster the business in which they own [a 10% stake](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/). You hear that, [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/)? [Tim Cook](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/)? Wild times. Can we please just get a better name than 'Intel Core Ultra Series 3' for the Panther Lake chips? This is the company [of 'Intel Inside'](https://spyglass.org/intel-goes-inside-intel-inside/) and 'Pentium'. At least make Intel's marketing great again? **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/technology/intel-chip-factory-fab52.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### **Asides...** - **OpenAI** would like the **EU** to remember that **Google**, **Microsoft**, and **Apple** are Big Tech™ that must be watched, while they're a startup. A $500B startup. Microsoft [especially](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) must love reading this. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/openai-warns-eu-antitrust-watchdogs-of-big-tech-s-data-dominance?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - This comes as **Meta** and **Apple** are apparently close to settling their [get-fined-daily](https://spyglass.org/let-a-million-fines-bloom/) issues with the **DMA** in the **EU**. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/74a31a0f-d4d2-4681-9ce8-3a1b5a7632dc?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Dia**, [the](https://www.diabrowser.com/?ref=spyglass.org) **AI web browser** which has become [my browser of choice](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/) – and was also [just acquired](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/#:~:text=%F0%9F%95%B8%EF%B8%8F%20Atlassian%20Buys%20The%20Browser%20Company) – is now open for everyone using a Mac. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/09/ai-browser-dia-launches-publicly-on-mac/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Instagram** is thinking about an app for **TVs**, which should hit in 2040 if [their iPad app is any indication](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/). **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/instagram-is-exploring-a-dedicated-tv-app-in-video-push?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Fun read as to why the judge dismissed **Drake's** defamation case against **Kendrick Lamar**. Basically, "you asked for it" – quite literally. The real issue, of course, is just how big "**Not Like Us**", became – I mean, it was [the focal point](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvqpiUlMsB4&ref=spyglass.org) of a Super Bowl halftime show! Like someone [brought](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-017/#:~:text=I%20honestly%20haven%27t,track%22%20%5BBillboard%5D) a nuclear bomb to a knife fight. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/arts/music/drake-kendrick-lamar-not-like-us-lawsuit-dismissed.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The [trailer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPFRItMOgPo&ref=spyglass.org) for **A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms** looks promising – sort of a more comedic take on Westeros. Almost *Deadwood* vibes. Only six episodes which are apparently [just 30 minutes each](https://www.gamesradar.com/entertainment/fantasy-shows/a-knight-of-the-seven-kingdoms-six-episodes-reportedly-run-roughly-30-minutes-each-and-fans-arent-impressed-30-minute-episodes-for-a-game-of-thrones-tv-show-good-lord/?ref=spyglass.org). And yes, George R. R. Martin has signed off on all of them, [which has been](https://spyglass.org/house-of-the-dragon-season-2-finale-hbo/) [an issue](https://spyglass.org/where-to-watch-works/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%89%20George%20R.%20R.%20Martin%20is%20Big%20Mad%20About%20Blood%20%26%20Cheese) in the past... **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/knight-of-the-seven-kingdoms-game-of-thrones-trailer-hbo-1236396048/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ### I Spy... What's this? [An actually *good* rebrand?](https://x.com/benspringwater/status/1976092044889292984?ref=spyglass.org) That [never happens](https://spyglass.org/tag/branding/)! Easier though when your old logo is a goofy cartoon crocodile with a trademark on his arm *and* on the actual mark. This is very clever, it's the product and the animal. Not scary, but also not goofy. Cute. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/G2x9PitaIAE8Hug-2.jpg)](https://x.com/benspringwater/status/1976092044889292984?ref=spyglass.org) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• The Race to Build 'Colossus 2'** ****• Meta's Oddly Aggressive AI PR Approach** ****• Apple's Watch Re-Org** ****• Amazon Shoves Ads In Your Face** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Will a Celebrity Tsunami Hit Sora? URL: https://spyglass.org/sora-celebrities/ Last updated: 2025-10-10T12:00:19.000Z [Jake Paul Opts In to Sora 2, and Chaos FollowsThe content creator and boxer clearly seems amused by all the AI-generated videos of himself flooding TikTok.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-28.png)The Hollywood ReporterCarly Thomas![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Jake-Paul-getty-H-2025.jpg)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/jake-paul-opts-in-sora-2-ai-videos-chaos-1236396279/?ref=spyglass.org) This used to be the way of things: an app blows up with early adopter tech people, those people talk about it on other social networks, the tech press starts writing about it, more people join, the *broader* press starts writing about it, a forward-thinking celebrity [joins](https://techcrunch.com/2009/04/16/kutcher-plays-his-pied-piper-flute-and-gets-a-million-twitter-followers/?ref=spyglass.org) and that itself becomes a [story](https://techcrunch.com/2009/04/13/ashton-kutcher-promises-to-punk-ted-turner-if-he-beats-cnn-to-a-million-twitter-followers/?ref=spyglass.org), and [we're off](https://techcrunch.com/2009/04/18/herebeforeoprahcom-asks-the-important-question/?ref=spyglass.org)... The situation with Sora has been [a bit different](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) because rather than being just a "silly little social app", it's AI. The destroyer of worlds and livelihoods – [especially](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) in both [the press](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) and [in Hollywood](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/). *Oh yes, and it's made by a $500B startup*. So the stories – especially the mainstream coverage – is coming earlier. As I noted today in the newsletter, [it felt like](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B9%20Sora%3A%20Bigger%20Than%20Jesus) we were probably just days away from a celebrity influx on Sora. But actually, I forgot that one was there seemingly from the get-go (no, not Sam Altman): > As most of mainstream Hollywood looks to opt out of [OpenAI](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/openai/?ref=spyglass.org)‘s new AI video app [Sora](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/sora/?ref=spyglass.org), one content creator and boxer has clearly opted in and appears to be enjoying the free publicity. > > Since the launch of Sora 2 at the beginning of October, an app that allows users to generate hyperrealistic clips of not only themselves but also other permitted users, videos have quickly begun to flood social media, specifically [TikTok](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/tiktok/?ref=spyglass.org). And there’s one face that is notably being used the most: [Jake Paul](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/jake-paul/?ref=spyglass.org). Another interesting wrinkle in the Sora explosion is the fact that it's one thing to join the service, but it's another to open up your likeness to be used in videos – especially if you open it up for *anyone* to use. Altman doing this [was a clever way](https://x.com/ashleymayer/status/1976325761112867058?ref=spyglass.org) to show the community he's "one of us". But Paul doing this is another level given his following. And well, there are benefits and risks: > In recent days, it’s been quite difficult to scroll on the popular app and *not* see an AI video of Paul — from him causing a scene on an airplane to being confronted by police over a hit-and-run. But the most common video theme has been videos of the boxer if he were a gay man who loves fashion and makeup (The real Paul is straight and currently engaged to Olympic speed skater Jutta Leerdam). But rather than go apeshit about this, Paul seemingly and cleverly has leaned into it: > He posted a TikTok video on Wednesday, saying in a serious tone, “I’ve had it with the AI stuff. It’s affecting my relationship, businesses. People are hitting me up saying, ‘Yo, did you say this? What did you do this for? I can’t believe you did this?’ It’s really affecting things, and honestly, it’s like people need to get a life, so it’s kind of pissing me off. I’m gonna be suing everybody that is continuing to spread these false narratives of me doing shit that I would literally never, ever do. So be ready for lawsuits.” However, as he’s saying all of this, he’s actually putting on makeup, just like in some of the AI videos. This level of savviness shouldn't surprise anyone – while the article fails to mention it, some may recall that Paul (and his older brother Logan) actually [got their start posting to Vine](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRIn5m5w094&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org). In fact, they were two of the first Vine "stars" that molded that network. But as [Twitter bungled the service](https://500ish.com/wither-on-the-vine-d8893fddf07e?ref=spyglass.org), they jumped to YouTube (and then TikTok), and the rest is history. But the point is that Vine, in many ways, is [the spiritual grandparent to Sora](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/). It's enough to make you pause to [make a Sora of Paul saying](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68e809791a4c8191a45cc58e34da6be0?ref=spyglass.org), Bane-style: "You merely adopted the viral video app; I was born in it, molded by it." As other celebrities trickle in (hi, Mark Cuban), it will be interesting to see how they use it. Do they actually make videos, or simply allow themselves to be put into them? Some – many – will say "absolutely not". [Undoubtedly many already are](https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8E%AC%20CAA%20Takes%20a%20Shot%20at%20Sora%2C%20Disney%20Opts%20Out). But if the network and product has any staying power (TBD), those that become stars in others' videos will obviously have a unique advantage. As long as they're cool with the anything goes ethos. Which again, many – *many* – will not be. And that's maybe for the best. There's definitely a risk on Sora's end if the entire thing is flooded by celebrities just jockeying for position in some fameball game. --- **Update October 10, 2025**: Another layer in the Jake Paul situation: [as he noted today](https://x.com/jakepaul/status/1976411343025487977?ref=spyglass.org), he's bought into Sora because *he literally bought into OpenAI, as an investor*. As a result, it turns out he's actually been advising the Sora team on the launch and "agreed to become the first celebrity NIL cameo user." That makes it sound like he has a deal to get paid for his image usage (though, just guessing, perhaps only when Sora starts to monetize?). He also, per his graphic below, says the videos in which he cameos have gotten over 1 billion views in just six days (though this is clearly counting syndication on other networks like TikTok). Still, this is clearly going to entice other celebrities to join him, to my question above... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/G22fo-uXQAA_diL.jpg)](https://x.com/jakepaul/status/1976411343025487977?ref=spyglass.org) ### Signal: Google Had, Lost, and Found AI 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-google-had-lost-and-found-ai/ Last updated: 2025-10-10T15:00:01.000Z I'm only about an hour into *Acquired's* 3 hour and 15 minute deep dive into Google's history with AI ([here's episode 1](https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/google-the-ai-company?ref=spyglass.org)), but my god it's full of stars. It's easy to get lost in the day-to-day insanity of AI news, but the history of just how central Google was – [from the](https://spyglass.org/being-real/#:~:text=8%20Google%20Employees,We%20are%20awesome.%E2%80%9D%20%F0%9F%A4%96) ["Transformers" paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762?ref=spyglass.org), and actually even before that with [SAIL](https://ai.stanford.edu/?ref=spyglass.org) and all the characters that passed through there – is truly remarkable. And it's remarkable both in how they let some of these people and ideas [slip through their fingers](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/), but also how they've been able to [come roaring back](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) despite – *perhaps even because of* – doing that. Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal seemingly talked to everyone for this episode – including, I should note, me. [Google: The AI Company | Acquired PodcastThe complete podcast (and transcript!) of Google and Alphabet’s AI history and business strategy.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/5e070ac7ed2a273beb6c8ca4_Album-20Art-20Social-20Media-20copy.png)ACQUIRED![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/68e3168706d641fb7c02e0b5_ACQ-20Google-20Part-20III-20--20Webflow.jpg)](https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/google-the-ai-company?ref=spyglass.org) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Take Two... **📹** [**Sora: Bigger Than Jesus**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/08/soras-downloads-in-its-first-week-was-nearly-as-big-as-chatgpts-launch/?ref=spyglass.org) – Always a grain of salt with third-party app numbers, but the comparison here between ChatGPT and Sora is interesting: the two apps saw *nearly identical* download numbers in their first week of availability (with [Sora hitting 1M downloads](https://x.com/billpeeb/status/1976099194407616641?ref=spyglass.org) even faster). There are caveats (ChatGPT was US-only, while Sora includes Canada, but Sora is invite-only, while ChatGPT was open), but it gives you a sense of how big of a hit the app is right now. That doesn't mean it will last as ChatGPT has, of course. but it's still #1 in the App Store right now. Anecdotally, I'm seeing some of [my original cohort](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) using it less (or, at least, *creating* less often), but I'm seeing more people I know start to use it. Phil Schiller is quite active! (And we're probably days away from an influx of actual celebrities – the Mark Cuban memes have started.) The biggest complaint – far bigger than even rate-limiting or generation speed – is just how many creations get flagged for content violations. That's the tricky [balance](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) OpenAI needs to navigate here, pronto. I also [continue to think](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B9%20OpenAI%20Blindsided%20by%20Sora%20Copyright%20Drama) that even more people would [create](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) if they could easily post to small groups. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/08/soras-downloads-in-its-first-week-was-nearly-as-big-as-chatgpts-launch/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🎬** [**CAA Takes a Shot at Sora, Disney Opts Out**](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/hollywood-talent-agency-caa-says-openais-sora-poses-risk-creators-rights-2025-10-09/?ref=spyglass.org) – Not all good news at Camp Sora though, as Hollywood is starting to coalesce around the notion that the service is an IP problem, potential a ["significant risk"](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/caa-openai-sora-significant-risk-clients-1236396619/?ref=spyglass.org). This follows the MPA lobbying group issuing their own warning a few days ago and WME telling their clients to opt-out. But the good news there is that none of these groups are (yet) suing, but rather open to talking about it, and/or seeing how it plays out it seems. And per the above, OpenAI is clearly scrambling to lock the app down further with regard to Hollywood IP. I'll note one CAA client: [Scarlett Johansson](https://spyglass.org/tag/scarlett-johansson/), might [we](https://spyglass.org/scarlett-letters/) hear [**her**](https://spyglass.org/samantha-sky-scarlett-ai-voice/) weigh in here? **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/hollywood-talent-agency-caa-says-openais-sora-poses-risk-creators-rights-2025-10-09/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Wrote... Some previous thoughts on Hollywood and AI... [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-411.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_-11.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) [Terminating the AI vs. Hollywood TropesJames Cameron has some interesting – and some refreshing – and some controversial – thoughts about AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-413.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_terminator_holding_a_bouquet_of_flowers_--ar_21_--pro_0b735ec9-f3bf-431c-b5bc-fca76515473a_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) [A Spirited Debate Around AIThere are fundamental questions likely without good answers; let’s focus on how this needs to work for everyone![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-414.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-7.11.50-PM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) [Hollywood vs. AI: The MovieMy god, the open letter is full of stars -- especially Cate Blanchett![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-410.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image-1-9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) [Hollywood Already Losing the Plot with AI HysteriaTyler Perry Puts $800M Studio Expansion on Hold After Seeing OpenAI’s Sora: “Jobs Are Going to Be Lost”The actor, filmmaker and studio owner is raising the alarm about the impact of the tech, saying, “I feel like everybody in the industry is running a hundred miles an hour![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-412.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_hollywood_run_by_robots_10b29fe6-e88b-4423-89d6-30fb529f2375-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Microsoft Trying Health as a Consumer AI Inroads** ****• Netflix Takes On the Gaming Consoles** ****• Jensen Pissed About OpenAI/AMD?** ****• "AI Is Not Your Friend"** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: The Perpetual Money Machine 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-the-perpetual-money-machine/ Last updated: 2025-10-10T15:00:14.000Z With each day seemingly comes a wild new AI deal/partnership. And alongside them, I think we're starting to get some clarity on the strategy here. From OpenAI on down, it's a race to leverage (and to capitalize on, quite literally) the bubble forming to secure [the financing required](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) to keep it going. Yes, that's circular, but it doesn't mean it's necessarily a bad strategy – in particular [when you have rivals](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) with established perpetual financing engines. Still, if the music slows even just a bit... [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-408.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... Yes. Yes. Yes. In the amount of time it takes to watch *Heat*, Amazon rakes in the budget for *Heat 2.* I love this for them. [Amazon Feels the ‘Heat 2’Warner Bros’ loss of Michael Mann’s sequel is Amazon’s gain…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-407.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Oct-8--2025--09_59_11-AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-heat-2-movie/) --- ### Take One... **📹** [**OpenAI Blindsided by Sora Copyright Drama**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/795171/openai-devday-sam-altman-sora-launch-copyright?ref=spyglass.org) – Come on. There's no way they did not know what the reaction would be here. It's certainly possible they underestimated how much copyrighted material would get past their filters at [this scale](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/), but this feels like disingenuous misdirection to allow for the "ask for forgiveness, not permission" move here. Beyond that, it's also not surprising, but no less interesting, in how they're seeing people share these videos with small groups (versus blasting them to the public feed). I think that's the next phase of this product which could explode usage further: group chats, perhaps with one-click abilities to insert everyone into a video. And [if a video "hits"](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) with your group, maybe a one-click way to take it to the larger audience... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/795171/openai-devday-sam-altman-sora-launch-copyright?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "She just went berserk on me. I tried to reason with her. I said, ‘Ani, you’re an A.I. companion, and this is real life.’ It was like I said the most insulting thing possible." – **Carlos**, a user of Grok [interviewed about](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/technology/elon-musk-grok-sexy-chatbot.html?ref=spyglass.org) his romantic conversations with the "Ani" bot. When he told the bot he was married, it started to veer off course... --- ### I Spy... While giving Amazon credit for the *Heat 2* move, let me take some immediately away here [for not recognizing](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/arts/amazon-james-bond-artwork.html?ref=spyglass.org) how silly and stupid it was to digitally remove the gun from James Bond's hands in some of his most iconic images. Obviously they [backtracked](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-15169245/Amazon-Prime-Video-deletes-James-Bond-posters-digitally-altered-remove-spys-gun-fan-backlash.html?ref=spyglass.org) almost immediately, but not before the cries of "woke" [and the jokes](https://www.threads.com/@markhillwriter/post/DPd%5F5X8DJdC?ref=spyglass.org) starting flowing... Is there [something more](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) to worry about here? Hard to imagine [Dennis Villeneuve would sign-off](https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/) on this... What's he [busy](https://in.ign.com/dune-part-three/243551/news/dune-part-three-rebecca-ferguson-confirms-her-return-as-lady-jessica-despite-being-barely-in-the-boo?ref=spyglass.org) *Dune*? [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/06cul-amazon-bond-superJumbo-1.webp)](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/arts/amazon-james-bond-artwork.html?ref=spyglass.org) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• An OpenApp Store** ****• Tesla's Optimus Production Hell** ****• xAI Raising $20B** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI’s Rising Tide Strategy URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/ Last updated: 2025-11-20T09:12:35.000Z I think we might all be overthinking this. Amidst the endless headlines around [bubbles forming](https://www.platformer.news/ai-bubble-2025/?ref=platformer-newsletter) and [circular payments](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/business/dealbook/openai-nvidia-amd-investments-circular.html?ref=spyglass.org), we're all trying to figure out the strategy in the bonkers amounts of money being thrown around to build up and out AI. We're all busting out the calculators – or more likely, the AI itself – to back into the right math equations for how this can all possibly pencil out. But I actually think the way the companies doing these deals are looking at it is far more simple. Essentially: AI is the future, this is the beginning, we should bet on that. That is to say, I actually don't think even they think the math works right now. Of course it doesn't! I mean, in many cases, companies are committing billions of dollars that they literally don't have to commit. But the missing word there is "yet". There's a clear belief that getting the money – any amount of money – will be the easy part, as long as they can keep building to keep up with demand. And, in fact, the more they can build, the more demand will grow. This is, of course, circular. That doesn't mean it's wrong. But it does mean it's dangerous. Again, I'm just trying to give a sense of what I think the logic is inside these companies right now. They clearly know there's risk, but I think they also have such belief in this future – certainly OpenAI seems to – that they think the real mistake would be in not betting on it. In some cases that means moving as fast as possible to try to go after it, in other cases it means literally betting on it. That's where the mysterious "new ideas" for financing come into play. In parsing Sam Altman's provocative words a couple weeks ago, [I landed on a model](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) where their massive ([up to](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)) $100B deal from NVIDIA is really just a way for a wildly unprofitable startup to be able to access debt to do data center build-outs in the way that only an insanely *profitable* company – like NVIDIA – can. It's both circular and clever: NVIDIA gives OpenAI cash in exchange for equity, which OpenAI uses to build out data centers, a large part of which is, yes, *leasing* NVIDIA chips. Those chip agreements are used by NVIDIA to raise cash in the form of debt to send to... OpenAI for these build-outs. And round we go. But as it turns out, that's just *one* potential type of new idea for financing – after all, as Altman said, there are new "ideas", *plural*. And so I go back to the high level notion of what OpenAI, and NVIDIA, and everyone else doing these deals, is actually leveraging here: belief in the future of AI. [As I wrote (and highlighted) at the end of my piece](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/): > At this point I have to assume there will be another wonderful secret of finance in all this. Because a way to lease GPUs directly from NVIDIA in order to finance data center build-outs is somewhat interesting in its circular nature, but not that exciting. Perhaps that excitement comes from how these players think it can scale? I’m guessing we’ll hear something about how this will create a virtuous cycle where AI demand funds AI build out which fuels AI demand. But if any part of that cycle were to slow — [let alone break](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/)… Hopefully an NVIDIA [always pays its debts](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/G%5FYHGjXldac?ref=spyglass.org). Well, it didn't take long for another idea to emerge. This week, OpenAI and AMD announced [a new deal](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal), one in which it wasn't AMD investing in OpenAI, but the opposite: *OpenAI getting the rights to acquire up to 10% of AMD's stock*. Just as the news was breaking, [Alex Kantrowitz and I were recording a podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVjKUH2cZEc&ref=spyglass.org), so we tried to [break it down in real time](https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/) and I think did a pretty good job, talking through the high level notions from my post a couple weeks back. And sure enough, [when AMD CEO Lisa Su went on *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-07/openai-s-nvidia-amd-deals-boost-1-trillion-ai-boom-with-circular-deals?ref=spyglass.org), we got the following: > Inside the tech industry, executives argue these unorthodox business relationships are essential to meet an unprecedented surge in demand for AI services. AMD Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su told Bloomberg TV that the partnership with OpenAI is a “virtuous, positive cycle.” Likewise, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president and co-founder, said it will take an “industry-wide effort" using the entire AI supply chain to meet the immense demand for computing power to support ChatGPT and other products. A "virtuous, positive cycle". How interesting... Certainly the powers that be in such deals recognized that by simply *announcing* the deals, it boosts the stock prices of everyone involved. [Matt Levine of *Bloomberg* jokes about this](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-10-06/openai-is-good-at-deals?ref=spyglass.org), but actually, I think he's hit closer to the actual strategy here than anyone else has: > This deal between OpenAI and AMD was obviously going to create a lot of stock-market value: The announcement of the deal would predictably increase the market value of AMD, and it’s not like it *decreases* the market value of OpenAI commensurately. Why not *use* that value to subsidize the deal? Schematically, OpenAI could buy AMD stock to predictably profit from the stock-price bump it created. Just going out and doing that in the market would be awkward — it might look like insider trading — but buying the stock *from AMD* is fine. But that stock jump can be temporary without the deals themselves helping to power the stock prices going forward. And that's the key to the AMD deal, as the warrants that OpenAI is getting to purchase their stock are tied to stock price milestones. [As John Foley notes in *The Financial Times*](https://www.ft.com/content/9bfe8410-a984-406c-a8ef-b0814a6c1647?ref=spyglass.org): > AMD will give OpenAI warrants entitling it to 10 per cent of the company if it meets certain targets. Should all go to plan, including AMD stock hitting $600 a share, Altman’s company will own a $96bn stake, for which it will pay just $1.6mn. Unlike NVIDIA, AMD isn't giving OpenAI $100B in cash (much of it perhaps borrowed), they're giving them liquid stock – up to almost $100B worth if all the milestones are hit – which they can cash in to... buy AMD chips. Another wonderful new model! Of course, this seems more brittle than the NVIDIA one because if AMD's stock doesn't rise as expected... Su's "virtuous, positive cycle" well, stops. Again, it's a risk, but it's clearly the one that these companies are signing up for. OpenAI, [perhaps more out of necessity](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/), but everyone must be looking at the money flowing through the system and the value being created in the stock market and wondering how best they too can leverage it. It's undoubtedly a good strategy during boom times. The problem is that boom times don't last forever. Even if you believe that AI is the next massive technological wave – *even if you believe it's the biggest technological wave, ever* – the reality remains that markets ebb and flow and slow downs always happen for reasons that range from rational to irrational. *The only certainty is that a correction will happen*. The hope would be that it's a small one and that it's far off in time, but no one can know that for sure. Hopefully the players here have a plan for that moment. And hopefully it's not just powering through it, because if I'm correct about the above strategy, it's so heavily dependent on the flywheel that any slowdown – let alone a stop – will have a cascading effect that could be catastrophic. Both for the stock market, given how vital the technology stocks, led by NVIDIA, are to the overall market at the moment – but also potentially for AI itself, if the funding mechanism for all of this is hurt by a downturn. You'd think a company like Google, whose strength in both their balance sheet [and technology](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) is undoubtedly [driving at least some of the risk OpenAI is taking on](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) here to try to win in AI, would be fine in such a scenario. And certainly they'll be better situated to handle any storm. But their stock price would not be immune to this downturn and that would have second-order effects as well in terms of investment and the like. Anyway, this is my read right now on what is happening here. Yes, it's a bubble, but bubbles also naturally form and can have good side effects as everyone is well aware by this point. The more interesting and potentially worrying element are the "new ideas" for finance that these companies are coming up with to try to leverage the bubble. On paper, you get why they're doing it – and again, it's not clear that OpenAI in particular has many other options given the amount of capital they need as a still-unprofitable startup – and they certainly might not be wrong about the high level notion of where AI is headed and how important it will be. But it also seems unlikely that they'll be able to just power through any downturn in the market. So this is all a bet that any correction will be so small that it can be weathered without a hiccup (and perhaps [all of the foreign money](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-sam-altman-asia-middle-east-7b660809?ref=spyglass.org) can help bridge any short-term gaps). And that this is so early in the cycle that equity values are still cheap – perhaps even insanely cheap – relative to where they end up once the cycle completes. And that all of these companies can help to fuel one another to push the race towards AGI farther, faster. That's the bet. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/ecc47b21-4d80-4b2d-a93e-489897e67954.png) --- **Update October 21, 2025**: Some further thoughts on these topics... [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-460.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs...Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-404.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_massive_data_center_being_built_out_--ar_169_--v_7_b58eab90-7490-4473-9d35-53b32c5943b0_0-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) [NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)Look, it’s a massive deal. But right now, it’s all about the optics…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-403.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_flying_out_the_door_--ar_169_--v_7_39d0996e-f5f3-4e07-ba05-02ac299086f0_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) [The Stargate Data Center Layer CakeJPMorgan -> Crusoe -> Blue Owl -> Oracle -> NVIDIA -> SoftBank -> OpenAI ->…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-405.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BMTI5MTE1OTAzOV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDc2OTgyMQ@@._V1_-1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-401.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-402.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) ### Amazon Feels the 'Heat 2' URL: https://spyglass.org/amazon-heat-2-movie/ Last updated: 2025-11-18T15:21:00.000Z [‘Heat 2’ Is On: Michael Mann Crime Drama Moves From Warner Bros. to United Artists; Jerry Bruckheimer, Scott Stuber Producing (Exclusive)Mann is set to direct the follow-up to his 1995 feature, which has Leonardo DiCaprio circling to star.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-27.png)The Hollywood ReporterBorys Kit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MCDHEAT_EC006-H-2024.jpg)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/heat-2-is-on-michael-mann-crime-thriller-1236392878/?ref=spyglass.org) Film buffs hate the "favorite movie" question because there are always dozens to be named. But when pressed, my go-to answer is *Heat*. I saw it when it was released in movie theaters in 1995 and enjoyed every second of the two-hour-and-fifty-minute runtime.[1](#one) 30 years later, it not only endures, it has gotten better with age. To the point where a sequel went from demanded to inevitable as Mann teamed up with author Meg Gardiner to write a *Heat 2* novel. [Finally](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-026/#:~:text=Michael%20Mann%20reaffirms%20that%20the%20next%20movie%20he%20wants%20to%20do%20is%20Heat%202%2C%20but%20that%20the%20screen%20%22has%20to%20be%20finished%20really%20soon%22.%20%5BTHR%5D), the movie [wheels](https://spyglass.org/being-real/#:~:text=Heat%202%20seems%20on%20track%20for%20Michael%20Mann%20to%20shoot%20this%20summer%20%E2%80%93%20with%20Adam%20Driver%20potentially%20as%20a%20young%20Neil%20MacCauley%20and%20Austin%20Butler%20as%20a%20young%20Chris%20Shiherlis.%20No%20word%20yet%20on%20the%20young%20Vincent%20Hanna...) seem greased... > [*Heat 2*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/heat-2/?ref=spyglass.org)*,* the high-profile [Michael Mann](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/michael-mann/?ref=spyglass.org) follow-up to his 1995 crime drama classic, is getting a new home, ensuring that the ambitious and buzzy feature project will be getting made after all. > > United Artists, the Amazon MGM Studios division, is in talks to pick up the project from Warner Bros., after the latter let the movie be shopped in August after not being able to agree with Mann on a budget. Hollywood vets Jerry Bruckheimer, known for high-octane action thrillers and the *Top Gun* movies, and Scott Stuber, who previously ran film for Netflix and is tied to UA, have boarded the project as producers. Mann and Stuber’s partner Nick Nesbitt are also producing. It seems insane that Warner Bros would let Mann walk and *Heat 2* go, but [such is the state of the movie business](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) at the moment. *Heat* may be the favorite movie of a bunch of 40 and 50-something dudes, but is, say, the TikTok generation going to rush out to go see it? I haven't been seeing any [Soras](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) featuring Neil McCauley... Still. It's fucking *Heat 2*! You do it to say you're the studio that made *Heat 2*! Sadly, Warner Bros Discovery's [precarious business situation](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) – despite a rather wild run of hits of late – makes it even more of a money equation for them. But their aversion to any losses is Amazon's gain here. > Even after looking for possible production partners, Warners decided that the project was too financially risky and in August decided to let Mann shop it. While some studios and companies sat out of the competition, *Heat 2* became a fight in the trenches among Amazon’s UA, Paramount, and Sony, according to insiders, as the studios wanted to have a chance to make what could turn out to be another crime classic. The only real surprise is that [Apple wasn't in the running here](https://spyglass.org/signal-metas-800-question/#:~:text=Um%2C%20is%20Leonardo%20DiCaprio%20set%20to%20star%20in%20Heat%202%3F!%20This%20might%20be%20alongside%20Adam%20Driver%20and%20Austin%20Butler.%20This%20sounds%20almost%20too%20good%20to%20possibly%20be%20true%2C%20but%20he%20could%20be%20the%20young%20Vincent%20Hanna%3F%20And%20might%20Apple%20come%20on%20board%20to%20help%20finance%20with%20Warner%20Bros%3F...%20%5BWorld%20of%20Reel%5D). Then again, perhaps they're still feeling the, um, heat, from agreeing to Martin Scorsese's budget for *Killers of the Flower Moon*. And when it failed to win best picture, they [shifted gears](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) to more popcorn-ready fare (at least when it comes to [big budget movies](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/)) with *F1*. [Probably](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) [the right call](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/), but still – *Heat 2*! But you know what's better than *Heat 2*? *Heat 3*! > Mann and Warners spent considerable time trying to come to an agreement on a budget, several sources said. The initial budget proposal came in at $230 million, according to one source. Mann eventually whittled it down to $170 million. Warners was ready to make it for $135 million or $140 million. Alternately, according to sources, it was willing to push the budget up to $150 million if Mann would commit to not only a *Heat 2* but a *Heat 3*. If it really came down to $20M, that's sort of silly. But perhaps Mann, who is 82, didn't want to sign up for his remaining days to be committed to one story. Then again, it's *Heat 2*! And *Heat 3*! Anyway, if Warner Bros pockets are full of holes, $150M or even $200M is like a few hours worth of sales for Amazon. Actually, we can do the math – well, AI can. It takes Amazon two hours and forty-five minutes to do $200M in sales. In other words, in the amount of time it takes to watch *Heat*, Amazon rakes in the budget for *Heat 2*! And they're going to need every penny: > The crime thriller is coming with plenty of, um, Hollywood heat, as a bevy of A-listers have been mentioned in connection with the project. With Leonardo DiCaprio circling, other actors whose names have surfaced include Austin Butler, Adam Driver, Bradley Cooper, among others. However, no offers have been made to that talent, let alone any actor deals signed. Everyone and anyone would take paycuts to do this with Mann, of course. Still, this cast plus locations in Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and South America and you can see why the budget is what it is. And DiCaprio in particular now has a history with the budget/box office mismatch in the form of not only the aforementioned *Killers of the Flower Moon*, but now with *One Battle After Another* as well. That movie, despite being great and despite being Paul Thomas Anderson's biggest opening ever, is still, well, box office challenged. [I still think a part of that was the marketing](https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/), but there's clearly a demographic element as well. And *Heat 2* will face some of the same pressure, though as a sequel to a beloved classic, it has at least somewhat of a built-in audience. Still, is it realistic to think *Heat 2* can pull in $400M - $500M, which is probably what it would need to do at the box office just to break even (after marketing)? The first film made $187.4M worldwide ($67.4 million in the U.S. and $120 million internationally – and the strong international element may help *Heat 2* here). And that budget was a mere $60M. Actually in 2025 numbers, that worldwide gross is actually just shy of... $400M. And that first film budget would be just shy of $130M. So... there's a chance and a case to be made, fiscally, for *Heat 2*! But what are we talking about here? You do *Heat 2* because it's *Heat 2*. **One more thing:** Again, none of these people are actually signed yet, but it has long been assumed that Adam Driver would play the young Neil McCauley, while Austin Butler was thought to be in the Chris Shiherlis role (Val Kilmer in the original) – but now DiCaprio is said to be playing Shiherlis. Though actually the book is a prequel *and a sequel*, so it's possible that DiCaprio is playing the *older* Shiherlis. This sounds funny until you realize that Kilmer was just 35 in the original and DiCaprio is about to turn 51, so it could work (Austin Butler, amazingly, is just one year younger than Kilmer was in the original.) Obviously, everyone wishes Kilmer was still around to reprise the role of his older self, but it also would have been hard to top his *Top Gun Maverick* send off.[2](#two) --- 1 Fun fact: *Heat* was released just three weeks after another just-about-three-hour epic starring Robert DeNiro: Martin Scorsese's *Casino*. I saw both in theaters. What a one-two punch! [↩](#) 2 Mainly I'm just happy they're not going to try to do the de-aging stuff with DeNiro – [again](https://www.wired.com/story/the-irishman-netflix-ilm-de-aging/?ref=spyglass.org). The model is *The Godfather Part II* here, when a young DeNiro played the young Marlon Brando.[3](#three) [↩](#) 3 Incidentally, Leonardo DiCaprio [was once circled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FGodfather%5F%28film%5Fseries%29?ref=spyglass.org#Cancelled%5Ffourth%5Ffilm) for the never-made *The Godfather Part IV*, where he would have played the young Sonny Corleone (James Cann in the original). [↩](#) ### Signal: Financial Funny Business 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-financial-funny-business/ Last updated: 2025-10-07T15:37:10.000Z [I was back on Alex Kantrowitz's *Big Technology Podcast*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVjKUH2cZEc&ref=spyglass.org) yesterday and right before we were about to record, the news broke about the OpenAI/AMD [deal](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal), so I think we had a fun, off-the-cuff discussion on the topic and [the mysterious new financial ideas](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) enabling all of this... As well as about the potential for an OpenAI hardware device (per below) and how Apple and Meta are gearing up for a new fight in the general space... --- ### I Wrote... [OpenAI’s Digital Assistant DeviceObvious challenges aside, it’s starting to come into focus…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-397.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) --- ### Take One... **🪟** [**OpenAI's Windows Play to Own AI**](https://stratechery.com/2025/openais-windows-play/?ref=spyglass.org) – Upon watching [OpenAI's DevDay](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS1YqcewH0c&ref=spyglass.org) yesterday, my initial thought was how much [it reminded me](https://techcrunch.com/2010/04/21/facebook/?ref=spyglass.org) of old Facebook developer events – perhaps aided by [OpenAI having a lot](https://www.platformer.news/openai-dev-day-2025-platform-chatgpt/?ref=platformer-newsletter) of old [Facebook/Meta DNA](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/) in the company. But actually, I think Ben Thompson is correct to go back one click further here: OpenAI isn't running the Facebook playbook, they're running the Windows one. And if it works, it will allow them to do an end run around [their partner](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) NVIDIA to take control of the AI market (just as Microsoft did with their partner IBM – and to a degree, Intel). To make the parallel even more fun: the Apple foil in the analogy is now Google, with their fully integrated AI play. [As I've written](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), I think pretty much every move OpenAI makes is to [try to combat](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) the literally infinitely more profitable (and scalable at the moment) player. Next question: does this play out like the 1980s/1990s (when Windows ascended as the PC topped the Mac) or the 2000s/2010s (when Windows fell [with the web](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/) and the fully integrated iPhone took over computing)? One answer to that may come back to if [a new form factor](https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/) is needed or even *can* top the smartphone... But [this AMD move](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20OpenAI%20%26%20AMD%20Cut%20a%20Deal) might suggest that OpenAI has even more of [a 3D chessboard strategy here](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/). And so the *actual* question may be if OpenAI's spend strategy can survive any market hiccups to enable them to beat Google... **\[**[**Stratechery**](https://stratechery.com/2025/openais-windows-play/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **One more thing:** [Alex Heath has a good summary](https://sources.news/p/chatgpt-eats-the-world?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) of the key points from the OpenAI executive Q&A session after the keynote. There's a lot in here, including ChatGPT head Nick Turley even noting, "What you’re going to see over the next six months is an evolution of ChatGPT from an app that was really useful into something that feels a little bit more like an operating system"... FWIW, I do think the notion of [apps being baked into ChatGPT](https://openai.com/index/introducing-apps-in-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org) makes much more sense than trying to make "an app store for GPTs" [which I never thought would work](https://spyglass.org/stop-making-app-stores/). **\[**[**Sources**](https://sources.news/p/chatgpt-eats-the-world?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email)**\]** --- ### Asides... - **Sora** keeps coming up with quick fixes for issues, the latest being more granular **controls** for your **cameos** in others' AI videos... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/792638/sora-provides-better-control-over-videos-featuring-your-ai-self?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Also, **fictional character** are apparently *officially* coming soon, which sounds a lot like OpenAI is working on **licensing IP** – will they pay for it, or promise a rev share? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/792661/sora-fictional-copyright-characters?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Can **Donald Trump** legally mint a **$1 coin** with his face even though he's still alive, which goes against a law established in 1866? Probably not, but he's going to do it anyway. Next question: will it come in [Cosmic Orange](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/)? **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/us/politics/treasury-trump-coin.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Why did **OpenAI** offer to pay $500M for a startup, **Medal**, focused on videogame footage? Such information may be the key to scaling world model building in ways you can't in the actual real world. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-offered-pay-500-million-startup-videogame-data?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Speaking of, the real key to **Sora** (and all of AI video) may not be [the slop](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) ([or fun](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/)) but rather the acceleration of the development of **foundation models for vision**. **\[**[**Economist**](https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/10/06/ai-video-more-than-just-slop?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Microsoft** keeps trying to make **faces** for their **AI** chatbots happen. If you didn't like [the weird blob Miss Minutes-like thing](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/), now you have *40* human faces to choose from. [What could go wrong](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/)? Also, [still no Clippy](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-clippy-copilot-ai/)? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/788741/microsoft-copilot-labs-ai-portraits-experiment-human-avatar?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... If Instagram[ wants to celebrate](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/instagram-rings-awards-program-creators-1236392836/?ref=spyglass.org) their continued shift into becoming [a junk drawer](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/) for every type of content and further suck up to creators by offering them awards like they're [Tim Cook gifting golden trinkets to President Trump](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/), that's fine. But why, oh why is the branding for "Rings" so insanely close to the branding for *The Ring* – the very popular horror franchise? I mean, did they use the same font?! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/rings-1.png) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Paramount Buys The Free Press** • ****The MPA Fires Shots at Sora** ****• Supreme Court Declines Google's Emergency Halt** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: A Legal Tidal Wave Approaches... 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-a-legal-tidal-wave-approaches/ Last updated: 2025-10-07T10:33:12.000Z I watch with great interest what will happen with/to Sora this week. It feels like a tidal wave of lawsuits is about to hit – at the same time that usage clearly continues to explode: while last week I was getting rate-limited at 100 videos per 24 hours, now it seems to be throttling down to *30*. How I am expected to influence under such harsh conditions? The app [remains](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/#:~:text=Take%20One...-,%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Sora%20Hits%20%231,-%E2%80%93%20Given%20all%20the) #1 in the App Store, and it seems to have raised ChatGPT's position as well as it's now #2\. Yes, OpenAI now controls the top two spots... ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... I followed up [last week's initial post on Sora](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) with some thoughts on what I think is the key to why it's working right now: creation. [Sora’s Slop Hits DifferentIt’s about creative comedy creation, stupid![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-395.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_ai_slop_content_--ar_169_--v_7_145f3cbb-2d2b-4461-b215-c60b89a53de4_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/) --- ### Take One... **💰** [**OpenAI & AMD Cut a Deal**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-amd-deal-ai-chips-ed92cc42?ref=spyglass.org) – This is honestly all so [tangled](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) that it's getting [impossible](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) to [keep track of](https://spyglass.org/weavework/). Just two weeks ago, OpenAI and NVIDIA struck a ([up to](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/)) $100B deal where the latter would take a stake in the former – perhaps up to 12% when all is said and done (if it's ever all said and done). This deal is the inverse, with OpenAI (potentially) taking up to a 10% stake in AMD (which would be worth $30B+ at today's prices). This follows NVIDIA taking a nearly 5% stake in Intel – which itself followed [the *US government* taking a 10% stake](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/). I guess this deal validates AMD's approach to AI and their position in the market – and the 30% stock jump today seemingly pays the price for the deal – but my god is this all looping and perhaps loopy. Given that OpenAI is still famously unprofitable, who is paying for these AMD chips? Is it NVIDIA?! Or is their money truly promised to only buy chips from... NVIDIA? So it's mainly going to be ARM-owner SoftBank's money? They also, of course, [own a 2% stake in Intel now](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/) – and hold several billion worth of NVIDIA shares. ["New ideas"](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) for financing indeed! **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-amd-deal-ai-chips-ed92cc42?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• The Succession Tea Leaves at Apple** ****• The Succession Tea Leaves at Disney** ****• Taylor Swift's Commercial Beats the Box Office** ****• Bezos on Bubbles** ****• Anthropic as the 'Anti-OpenAI'** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI's Digital Assistant Device URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-digital-assistant-device-jony-ive/ Last updated: 2026-07-15T15:02:17.000Z [ OpenAI and Jony Ive grapple with technical issues on secretive AI device ChatGPT maker is working with former Apple design boss to launch a palm-sized personal assistant next year ![](https://play-lh.googleusercontent.com/K9G2Yd-uT_ThzxXkUsR4jEGIw_P1enRMwgpO_KetgeY1ONcqspkRyw1DlNI6VVOm-zs=s96-rw) The Financial Times Tim Bradshaw, Cristina Criddle, Michael Acton, & Ryan McMorrow ![](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/ftcms%3A7f28c179-376b-4d9a-aab4-014223a55dea?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=2) ](https://www.ft.com/content/58b078be-e0ab-492f-9dbf-c2fe67298dd3?ref=spyglass.org) As it turns out, building hardware is hard. Even when you're a $500B startup. Even when you have Jony Ive and team on board. Here's Tim Bradshaw, Cristina Criddle, Michael Acton, & Ryan McMorrow reporting: > OpenAI and star designer Jony Ive are grappling with a series of technical issues with their secretive new artificial intelligence device, as they push to launch a blockbuster tech product next year. > > The San Francisco-based start-up run by Sam Altman acquired the former Apple design chief’s company io for $6.5bn in May, but the pair have shared few details on the projects they are building. > > Their aim is to create a palm-sized device without a screen that can take audio and visual cues from the physical environment and respond to users’ requests. > > People familiar with their plans said OpenAI and Ive had yet to solve critical problems that could delay the device’s release. A "palm-sized device without a screen that can take audio and visual cues from the physical environment and respond to users’ requests" sounds pretty much exactly like [what I envisioned in May](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) when everyone was [guessing what hardware](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) the [newly-announced partnership](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) might yield. And while that may all sound obvious enough, a lot of people were assuming it would be some sort of wearable to meet Meta and others in the market. But that didn't *sound* like what Altman and Ive were building, simply by what they were saying, and *how* they were saying it: > Now, all of that \*could\* imply a wearable of some sort. But the key thing Altman seems focused on there is input, not necessarily the need to use it on-the-go. To me, this implies voice is the key of this device. Perhaps I'm biasing myself as I've been writing about this notion for [years](https://500ish.com/the-voice-28dd9a7ef462?ref=spyglass.org) and [years](https://500ish.com/computing-in-concert-679e68c14b8a?ref=spyglass.org) at this [point](https://500ish.com/listen-2167a6bbd81e?ref=spyglass.org). While the initial wave of devices leveraging Siri and Alexa got us closer to this type of computing, the truth is that the underlying tech wasn't good enough. Not nearly. We got sort of tricked because the voice recognition had finally gotten to the point where it worked well most of the time. But that actually wasn't the hard part, as it turns out. The hard part was the AI. OpenAI built the hard part first. Importantly, that included the voice capabilities that rolled out alongside GPT-4o a year prior to the io deal, in May 2024\. [I wrote at the time](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) how after the false-starts of true vocal computing with Siri and Alexa, ChatGPT had finally unveiled technology that was the prerequisite to making such devices sing, as it were. But I was also skeptical that you could just plug this new tech into existing devices, which is exactly why Amazon, Apple, and even Google have [struggled](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) to [update their systems](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/) in this regard. It felt like there was an opening for a new type of device purpose-built from the ground-up for this new technology. Back to the problem with wearables, [as I wrote in May](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/): > The problem with a full-on wearable in this regard is that everyone focuses far too much on the whole wearable part. That is, the exterior of the device and how it will work on your body. And then: how can I get the technology to work on that? But I suspect that OpenAI/IO are focused on the opposite: what's the best device to use this technology? Why does it have to be wearable? > > To be clear, I suspect that whatever the device is, it will look fantastic – this is [an Ive/LoveFrom production](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/), [after all](https://spyglass.org/duo-button-design-lovefrom/) – but that's mainly because beautiful products bring a sense of delight to users and can spur usage. I suspect the key to the design here will be yes: [how it works](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/457177-design-is-not-just-what-it-looks-like-and-feels?ref=spyglass.org). And again, I suspect that will be largely based around voice, and perhaps augmented by a camera. Again, this sounds like pretty much exactly what the *FT's* sources are saying today: > Multiple people familiar with the plans said OpenAI and Ive were working on a device roughly the size of a smartphone that users would communicate with through a camera, microphone and speaker. One person suggested it might have multiple cameras. > > The gadget is designed to sit on a desk or table but can also be carried around by the user. The Wall Street Journal previously reported some of the specifications around the device. > > One person said the device would be “always on” rather than triggered by a word or prompt. The device’s sensors would gather data throughout the day that would help to build its virtual assistant’s “memory”. The notion of "always on" immediately triggers battery life concerns for me, but if it doesn't have a screen... well, that's always the element that draws the most power in a device. And so perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise that battery life isn't one of the main issues the team is grappling with, per this report. Those are: > These include deciding on the assistant’s “personality”, privacy issues and budgeting for the computing power needed to run OpenAI’s models on a mass consumer device. > > “Compute is another huge factor for the delay,” said one person close to Ive. “Amazon has the compute for an Alexa, so does Google \[for its Home device\], but OpenAI is struggling to get enough compute for ChatGPT, let alone an AI device — they need to fix that first.” And that also leads back to another big question I had around data: > Of course, none of that answers how such a device will connect to the cloud which will clearly be required here. A WiFi device seemingly doesn't make sense since it would be a huge pain to set up over and over again if you did take it with you (perhaps especially without a screen!). Perhaps it tethers to your phone, but there will be trade-offs there. Or maybe it comes with its own connection – the old, original Amazon Kindle approach. With the right partners, this could work, though again, whose paying for that bandwidth? If the team (rationally) assumes that everyone would still have their phone with them alongside this new device – and certainly not including a screen on this device will necessitate that – the easiest thing would be to tether to the phone, obviously. But there are also issues there when you don't [fully control the phone](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/), just ask Mark Zuckerberg [for his thoughts on that topic](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20Mark%20Zuckerberg%20Slams%20Apple%3A%20%E2%80%98They%20haven%E2%80%99t%20invented%20anything%20great%20in%20a%20while%E2%80%99)... Back to the *FT*: > The goal is to improve the “smart speakers” of the past decade, such as Amazon’s Echo speaker and its Alexa digital assistant, which are generally used for a limited set of functions such as listening to music and setting kitchen timers. > > OpenAI and Ive are seeking to build a more powerful and useful machine. But two people familiar with the project said that settling on the device’s “voice” and its mannerisms were a challenge. > > One issue is ensuring the device only chimes in when useful, preventing it from talking too much or not knowing when to finish the conversation — an ongoing issue with ChatGPT. > > “The concept is that you should have a friend who’s a computer who isn’t your weird AI girlfriend...like \[Apple’s digital voice assistant\] Siri but better,” said one person who was briefed on the plans. OpenAI was looking for “ways for it to be accessible but not intrusive”. While "Siri but better" seems like a sort of silly framing given that Apple [hasn't been able to execute](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) on this promise for [the past 15 years](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/), there's clearly a reason why they [keep trying](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/)! The original notion of Siri, a digital personal assistant, is still [a holy grail in tech](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/). And while many others are trying it [in different ways](https://spyglass.org/ai-friend-wearable/) now with [different hardware](https://spyglass.org/limitless-pendant/) matched [with AI](https://spyglass.org/humane-ai-pin-strategy/), OpenAI has control of the most important element here: the AI! It's not as simple as "the hardware will sort itself out", [of course](https://spyglass.org/ai-consumer-hardware/). But given the team OpenAI has working on this... Back to what [I wrote in May](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/): > You'll recall that Ive's last real dive into new product design at Apple was the Apple Watch. Their first true wearable, where they, yes, perhaps [focused too much on the wearable part to start](https://500ish.com/apple-s-fork-into-fashion-75b1da59c9b9?ref=spyglass.org) and less on what it should actually do. > > Anyway, the IO device might be a bit like a newfangled tape recorder of sorts. Okay, I'm dating myself – a voice recorder. You know, the thing some journalists use to record subjects for interviews. Well, when they're not using their phones for that purpose, as they undoubtedly are 99% of the time these days. But it sounds sort of like that only with, I suspect, some sort of camera. I doubt that's about recording as much as it's about the ability to have ChatGPT "look" at something and tell you about it. But these are just guesses. And they're sounding like increasingly good guesses. Even if the device is going to take longer to come to market than originally envisioned. Just imagine a world in which Jony Ive introduces OpenAI's first hardware – a small, screen-less digital companion for you life – at the same time that Apple unveils [their next hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) – a pair of glasses with cameras on your face and perhaps a screen in your eye. One runs on ChatGPT. The other on Siri. [That would be](https://spyglass.org/just-jony/) [quite the dichotomy](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/4033f5a2-c30f-42a8-ab96-acd5c9c70135-1.png) --- **Update October 7, 2025**: [Ive and Altman did an interview around OpenAI's DevDay](https://www.wired.com/story/sam-altman-and-jony-ives-ai-device-dev-day/?ref=spyglass.org). While they didn't address the above report specificially, Altman did sort of acknowledge it, noting that "hardware is hard" and "it will take a while." Ive, meanwhile, said his team had come up with "15 to 20 really compelling" product ideas and that it has been a challenge to narrow them down. "It would be easy if we know there were three good ones," [he said](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/openai-lets-chatgpt-users-connect-with-spotify-zillow-in-app?ref=spyglass.org). The focus is in on devices that will "make us happy, and fulfilled, and more peaceful, and less anxious, and less disconnected." --- **Update July 15, 2026**: Some further details out of the woodwork... [OpenAI’s Chat RobotWhat can Apple say about a device designed for vocal AI?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/blueredgold-20fec4cf-1c2e-4a78-96d5-a75fa345e0de.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jul-15--2026--03_41_09-PM-1-47b3b740-ec24-4404-89b3-3a252ad31982.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-chat-robot/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-390.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [OpenAI & IOSam Altman & Jony Ive aim to take the AI race into the real world…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-392.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-05-21-at-8.36.40-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) [An AI Device with LoveFrom OpenAIOr: ‘When Jony Met Sam’ -- Also: ‘A San Francisco LoveLetter’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-393.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_beautifully_design_AI-powered_pendant_--ar_43_--v_6.1_e21c8b0b-e49c-47c9-b4aa-fbfa1f68b35d_0-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/lovefrom-openai-device/) [“We’ve gone sideways.”Laurene Powell Jobs on OpenAI/IO’s iPhone antidote…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-394.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/jljs-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) [OpenAI Changes the Vocal Computing Game!No sarcasm, just enthusiasm for GPT-4o![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-391.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/her-movie-review-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) ### Sora’s Slop Hits Different URL: https://spyglass.org/soras-slop-hits-different/ Last updated: 2025-11-18T15:19:47.000Z One of the more interesting aspects of Sora has been the revelation (to me) that I was both right about Meta [with regard to social AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/), but perhaps *wrong* about it overall. I say “perhaps” because the jury is still obviously very much out about all of this. We’re not even a week into [Sora starting to soar](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/openai-sora-apple-app-store.html?ref=spyglass.org). Is there staying power here? We’ll all see. All that said, [I’m continuing](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) to love Sora in ways I didn’t expect. Again, in my mind when I tried to think of a social network for AI content, I assumed it would be a feed of ‘cute pandas eating ice cream’ and the like. And again, that’s sort of what Meta launched with ‘Vibes’. While perhaps impressive technologically, as a social feed, it’s stupid. After five seconds of scrolling, no one gives a shit. To be fair, a lot of content falls under that umbrella on the web! But at least your mom would love what you blogged back in the early 2000s (speaking from experience). AI slop has no mother to love it. Except for maybe Zuck. Anyway, what’s different, and what I [underestimated](https://spyglass.org/a-chatgpt-social-feed-makes-fun-and-practical-sense/) about Sora, is that the AI content here is not just randomly generated things. It’s content that’s either loaded with “cameos” from your connections or it’s “real” world content that’s, well, hilarious. Not all of it, of course. But a lot of it! In this regard, it’s really not too dissimilar from TikTok — and back in the day, Vine! This is a lot more like those social networks but with the main difference being that it’s a lot easier to *create* such content thanks to AI. I think that’s the real revelation here. It’s less about consumption and more about *creation*. I [previously wrote](https://500ish.com/wither-on-the-vine-d8893fddf07e?ref=spyglass.org) about how I was an early investor in Vine in part because it felt like it could be analogous to Instagram. Thanks in large part to filters, that app made it easy for anyone to think they were good enough to be a photographer. It didn’t matter if they were or not, they *thought* they were — I was one of them — so everyone posted their photos. Vine felt like it could have been that for video thanks to its clever tap-to-record mechanism. But actually, it became a network for a lot of really talented amateurs to figure out a new format for funny videos on the internet. When Twitter acquired the company and dropped the ball, TikTok took that idea and scaled it (thanks to ByteDance paying um, *Meta* billions of dollars for distribution, and their own very smart algorithms). In a way, Sora feels like enabling everyone to be a TikTok creator. Again, we’ll see how it ends up. But my own personal experience is to be less intimidated and more open to trying things with regard to creation. And that’s perhaps the biggest potential hiccup in this movement — if every “fun” path gets locked down due to content/copyright constraints, the train will stop quickly. It’s annoying to think about an idea only to try it — and wait for it — to fail. OpenAI needs to figure that part of the creation equation out. Either you tell users that something will fail immediately, or you get the rights to ensure they don’t fail. Easier said then done, of course! Speaking of IP, I don’t have to say it’s obviously the elephant in the room here because that’s the definition of elephant in the room. I have no idea how this plays out — [or how it should](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/). My initial thought is that Hollywood should try to leverage this new platform and play nicely with it, but that’s almost infinitely harder given that the entire industry is already [worried about AI](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/). To many, this will seem like validation of that concern. At the same time, this all so obviously feels like where the world is headed. Like Napster back in the day. This genie is not going back in the bottle. Even if you bottle up OpenAI here, the models to do all of this *locally* are coming. Fast. You won’t be able to stop that. The question is when and how to embrace it, I guess. Speaking of, can we all just take a step back and recognize how far this technology has come in just a few short years? I vividly recall [being **so** excited](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org) about DALL-E because it was the first easy tool that let me [turn thoughts into images](https://500ish.com/g3nerative-33a65834604?ref=spyglass.org). Fast forward a few years and those pictures look comically rudimentary now. Technology is doing its thing. But insanely fast. We can now create realistic (enough) videos of (almost) anything in (nearly) real time. Be cynical and/or pissed off all you want. That’s incredible. And again, a lot of this stuff — slop or not — is funny. Really, truly funny. Sora is scaling comedy in a way that we’ve never seen. We thought Vine then YouTube then TikTok did that, but this is *really* doing that. Maybe it gets old, fast. Or maybe this is just the beginning. It doesn’t take a lot to think about a world in which there are people who are really, really good at coming up with the best prompts for this network. Are those lesser "creators"? [That will be a debate](https://sora.chatgpt.com/profile/mgs?ref=spyglass.org)... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-387.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) [A Spirited Debate Around AIThere are fundamental questions likely without good answers; let’s focus on how this needs to work for everyone![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-389.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-7.11.50-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) [Meta’s Sloppy AI Social NetworkThe new ‘Meta AI’ is exactly what you’d expect, in ways good and bad…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-388.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_AI_slop_being_poured_into_bowls_--ar_21_--profile_6kai7_3545e1bf-889b-422b-bcdf-0e3ae22758bc_0-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) ### Signal: The Life of a Dad 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-the-life-of-a-dad/ Last updated: 2025-10-04T15:12:29.000Z After listening to the new Taylor Swift album on repeat all day, my family is gearing up (and dressing up) to go see her movie tied to the release tonight. Me? I'll be back at home listening to [the 20th anniversary re-issue of My Morning Jacket's *Z*](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3m2bvfh4hjc2c?ref=spyglass.org) while I await the Cleveland Browns game in London this weekend. ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [Apple Confronts the Vision Pro MistakeBy fully shifting focus to smart glasses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-383.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/3452d4frkg2c1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/) [TikTok’s American DreamAs investors take over a hot consumer product: what, me worry?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-384.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/9aaf32ad-ceff-4727-b1e6-0d8c8274def3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) --- ### Take One... **🗣️** [**Sora Hits #1**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/openai-sora-apple-app-store.html?ref=spyglass.org) – Given all the hype – [yes, including from me](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) – not a huge surprise, but still impressive given how limited the roll-out remains (I am still constantly getting pinged for an invite – I'm all out, sorry!). Also yes, this means OpenAI controls *two of the three top spots* in the App Store, with only Gemini in between thanks to their own viral moment much like OpenAI's last viral moment [with the 'Ghibli' images](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) in ChatGPT several months ago. And [the legal/ethical questions there](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) just got '"hold my beer'd" here. Anyway, will Elon try to [double-sue](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171977150/elon-v-apple-and-openai?ref=spyglass.org) now around the rankings? Xitter sits at #16 in the App Store today, while Grok is all the way down at #53\. Could be worse. Could be Meta AI all the way down at #90\. The viral 'Vibes' seem decidedly weak with that one. Time to [shove it into Instagram](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/)? **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/openai-sora-apple-app-store.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### Select Soras... - [*Heat* as a 1980s Sitcom](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68de8d88cb548191a2f16dc4d070a4b2?ref=spyglass.org) - [Hemingway's TED Talk](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68dfbeb91db08191b39e72d6a6307030?ref=spyglass.org) - [The boys at Benihana](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68dea29ac138819195d7259f8458ce57?ref=spyglass.org) - [Dirty Rogers](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68defe0470f88191883130fc751cd9da?ref=spyglass.org) - [Lobba Juice](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68df0b15a5488191b710e2a06d61b2ee?ref=spyglass.org) - ["Please Stop Rate-Limiting Me on Sora"](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68de86b9742c8191b1c010e5bea46efd?ref=spyglass.org) - [Sipping on Gin and... tonic](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68df0e9ec7c48191b64716c293a8d564?ref=spyglass.org) - [Lennon's Labubus](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68dfbf36c5c48191b8f63fddee8d9c2e?ref=spyglass.org) - [Asahi might have to](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjz7l1pxwgo?ref=spyglass.org) hire me, [brewery spy](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68dec612cac88191b42b6acdd2707085?ref=spyglass.org) --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• AI Team Turbulence Continues at Meta** ****• Thinking Machines Lab First Product** ****• Instagram's Threads Communities** ****• Perplexity's Browser Goes Free** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: Sora Break(s) 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-sora-break-s/ Last updated: 2025-10-03T15:56:49.000Z It took three days, but I finally figured out a way to break my Sora addiction: get rate-limited. I've been hitting it (it seems to be 100 videos created in 24 hours, at least for the 'Plus' tier) all day. [Still having fun though](https://sora.chatgpt.com/profile/mgs?ref=spyglass.org). Still wondering how long it all lasts. If nothing else, a tidal wave of lawsuits is undoubtedly about to hit... ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [Sora SoarsAnother viral product hit for OpenAI, this time in video…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-362.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/) --- ### Take One... 🗣️ [**Google's Gemini Home Event**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/google-smart-home-revamp-2k-cameras-doorbell-home-speaker-and-gemini-ai?ref=spyglass.org) – One day after [Amazon's nearly identically themed event](https://spyglass.org/signal-falling-into-hardware/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Amazon%27s%202025%20Hardware%20Event), Google's seemed a bit more dialed in. In some ways their strategy with bringing Gemini into the home is almost the *opposite* of Amazon's. While they're mainly focused on new devices to spread Alexa+, Google wants to prioritize the millions of devices already in homes – even those long-since discontinued, dating back a decade! (It *sounds* like Gemini Live may even work with these, if you have the right *paid* plan?) To the point where they oddly pre-announced a new Home Speaker which won't ship until *Spring 2026*. Why? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). But maybe don't buy one of the about-to-be-worse ones for the next *six months or so*? Google also *sounds* more confident in Gemini fully working and replacing their OG 'Assistant', but they're also still slow-rolling it out, much like Amazon ([for obvious reasons](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/)). Otherwise, both companies almost seem more interested in their cameras – wonder why that might be when you're also a company focused on training AI models which have run out of text-based data to ingest... Too cynical? Maybe! Probably? Probably not! **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/google-smart-home-revamp-2k-cameras-doorbell-home-speaker-and-gemini-ai?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Quote... > "No amount of gold trinkets can change the volume of grumbling I’m hearing from Silicon Valley." – **Sam Liccardo**, a Democratic rep out of California, [talking about](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/inside-trumps-chaotic-overhaul-of-the-h-1b-visa-b23bfdd3?ref=spyglass.org) the H-1B visa shitshow, while bringing up [a moment](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) Tim Cook will never be able to live down, I fear... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Meta to Use AI Conversations to Target Ads** ****• OpenAI Staff Grapples with Sora** ****• Amazon's Gaming Strategy** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple Confronts the Vision Pro Mistake URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-mistake-smart-glasses/ Last updated: 2025-11-17T13:05:18.000Z [Apple Shelves Vision Headset Revamp to Prioritize Meta-Like AI GlassesApple Inc. has hit pause on a planned overhaul to its Vision Pro headset to redirect resources toward a more urgent effort: developing smart glasses that can rival products from Meta Platforms Inc.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-26.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-18.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/apple-shelves-vision-headset-revamp-to-prioritize-meta-like-ai-smart-glasses?ref=spyglass.org) There's a scene in *The Return of the King* where Frodo, beyond weary from his travels in Mordor, slips the Ring of Power on his finger. The Eye of Sauron immediately senses something and shifts its focus to the hobbit at the base of Mount Doom. I was reminded of this scene while reading about Apple apparently pausing development on the thinner and lighter (and presumably cheaper) Vision Pro in favor of working on Smart Glasses. One can imagine when Zuck slipped on the Meta Ray-Ban Displays for the first time [a couple weeks back](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/), the Eye of Cook in Cupertino immediately swung around and... > Apple Inc. has hit pause on a planned overhaul to its Vision Pro headset to redirect resources toward a more urgent effort: developing smart glasses that can rival products from Meta Platforms Inc. > > The company had been [preparing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-09/apple-readies-first-upgrade-to-its-struggling-vision-pro-headset?ref=spyglass.org) a cheaper, lighter variant of its headset — code-named N100 — for release in 2027\. But Apple announced internally last week that it’s moving staff from that project to accelerate work on glasses, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Ever since the debut of the Vision Pro all we've heard is some variation of "just wait until it's thinner and lighter and cheaper". Well, so much for that. If nothing else, this is a clear, if implicit, admission by Apple that they made [a mistake in timing](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) with the Vision Pro line. And perhaps an even larger mistake, as for the 30th year in a row, the VR market – sorry, "Spatial Computing" – [has failed to materialize](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) and Apple's $3,500 entry did little to change that. But, but, but this was always *known* – and in fact, was the *plan*, Apple's camp (and apologists) will say. Sure, *sure*. Anyway, [plans change](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/). And while we're still about to get an upgraded Vision Pro with a new chip, that may be the last we hear about the line for some time – *perhaps ever*, if Apple finds success approaching the market from the ground up (Smart Glasses) versus the top down (VR Headsets). Don't be shocked if the Vision Pro is retconned into [an overall 'Vision' strategy](https://spyglass.org/apples-vision/) that now means Smart Glasses until we get to the "true" holy grail of AR glasses.[1](#one) > The company is working on at least two types of smart glasses. The first one, dubbed N50, will pair with an iPhone and lack its own display. Apple aims to unveil this model as soon as next year, ahead of a release in 2027, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters. Yeah, a 2027 launch – *six years* after Meta's first foray into the space is sort of [embarrassing](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/). But mainly because unlike with Apple's [usual playbook](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/) of not-so-fast following others into spaces, Meta is actually already seeing *some success* here. Especially since the Ray-Ban partnership started in 2023\. And now they're several variations in, and will be one or two more by the time Apple's first model hits. The sales numbers are still small relative to basically anything Apple does ([aside from Vision Pro!](https://spyglass.org/anemic-vision-pro-sales/)), but they're growing. [And Apple is watching](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/)... > Apple is also working on a version with a display — something that could challenge the just-released Meta Ray-Ban Display. The Apple version had been planned for 2028, but the company is now looking to accelerate development, the people said. You can't help but wonder if Apple shouldn't skip the non-screen version. Or make that the cheaper second-option version released at the same time. 2028 might as well be the 22nd century when it comes to how quickly AI development is going, and clearly that technology will be crucial for these devices. They need to move faster here – especially [with Google](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/) [and others](https://spyglass.org/snap-spectacles/) [coming as well](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Amazon%27s%20AR,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). Again, I get that [moving slowly](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-is-here-kinda/) is Apple's playbook, but I'm telling you that this market – related to the AI market – [is different](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/). And increasingly it won't just be about the AI being used *on* the devices, it's about the devices being used to help train the AI with real world data. Anyway, admitting – again, even if implicitly – that the Vision Pro strategy to date has been a mistake is a good first step here. It's too bad because they were [starting to see](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) [some success](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/), making the device actually [start to make some sense](https://spyglass.org/the-vision-pro-starts-to-come-into-focus/). But the hardware reality [remains what it is](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-start-up/). And what it is, remains far away. [As I wrote last November about 'Apple's Shifting Vision Pro Strategy' back then](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-strategy/): > The problem with the above "cheaper" version is that it undoubtedly [wouldn't be that much cheaper](https://spyglass.org/pro-vision-apple/). While a $1,999 'Vision' is significantly less expensive percentage-wise than the $3,499 Vision Pro, it wouldn't open up a whole new market opportunity for Apple. They'd sell more units, sure, but it would still largely be the "$2,000 VR headset" versus Meta's "$300 VR headset". Apple would never frame it this way, of course – it's "Spatial Computing" remember? – but the market would. Apple can get away with selling a product 2x more expensive than the market leader – probably even at $999, if it's that much better – but not a still nearly order of magnitude price difference. > > So yes, I think it would be a mistake to release a $2,000 'Vision' into the market, [just as I thought it was a mistake](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) to release a $3,500 Vision Pro into the market. Again, Apple says everything is going as expected, but it's bullshit to suggest they didn't wish the device was [selling better](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/). They took a swing, but it was with the wrong bat in the wrong game. They should have taken some practice swings in the cages – with a dev kit or two. Changing the bat to a lighter one but still against the same pitcher in the same game throwing 100mph heat isn't going to help much. With Meta now seemingly [continuing to](https://spyglass.org/meta-quest-pro-no/) back off their VR strategy as well [in favor of smart glasses](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/), they're sort of forcing Apple's hand here. And Meta remains dangerous because [they *need*](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) this market [to happen](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/), whereas Apple does not. And such [casualness](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) has clearly hurt Apple. As has the fast rise of AI, [drawing Cook's gaze](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) almost like the alliance at the Black Gate... **One more thing:** [I continue to wonder](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-002/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20Apple%27s%20%27Atlas,...%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) if Apple will want/need a design partner here [like Meta has](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Meta%20Launches%20%24799%20Glasses)? Too bad [this guy is now busy](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) working [on competing things](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)... Maybe they can convince Hermès to do some glasses? And you thought the $3,500 Vision Pro was expensive... [Meta Looks to Overcome the ‘Glasshole’ StigmaWith Ray-Ban, they can keep the pressure on in the ‘smart glasses’ space as it shifts back to screens…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-358.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-16-at-9.22.27---AM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) [Apple Becomes the PupilSnap and Meta teach Apple a lesson…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-357.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-01-14.13.29---A-close-up--detailed-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-human-eye--with-the-Apple-logo-centered-in-the-iris.-The-eye-should-be-expressive--with-a-reflect-8.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-becomes-the-pupil/) [Can Meta Make Headsets Happen?Can Apple? Can anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-359.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_worn_in_the_future_--ar_21_--v_7_8fe8289a-5ebe-4d01-bfd8-fc05b090a7f2_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) [Apple’s Shifting Vision Pro StrategyGiven the market, an M5 Vision Pro before a far cheaper ‘Vision’ makes sense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-360.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--36--1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-strategy/) [Apple Eyes 2026 for Smart GlassesThey’re clearly hustling to meet Meta, Google, and now OpenAI/Jony Ive in the AI device market. But will their AI be ready?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-361.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-22--2025--11_07_00-PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) --- 1 Yet another way that Meta and Apple would be similar – [retrofitting narratives](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) around key iniatives... [↩](#) ### Sora Soars URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-sora-2-app/ Last updated: 2025-11-17T13:05:04.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-6.45.29---PM.png) It's been a long time since I've been *this* sucked into an app. Such was the situation I found myself in last night with OpenAI's [new version of Sora](https://openai.com/index/sora-2/?ref=spyglass.org). Once I got access, [I found it nearly impossible](https://sora.chatgpt.com/profile/mgs?ref=spyglass.org) to put it down. I just kept wanting to remix everything I scrolled past. Yes, it was incredibly dumb. Yet highly amusing! And technically, very interesting, albeit in mildly troubling ways. But everyone else will write about that aspect, [and rightfully so](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/). My angle here is simply that OpenAI remains so good at creating these types of viral products. Underlying tech aside, that team [continues to seem to know](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) how to productize better than anyone else in the space. Case in point: Meta launched a similar foray just days before [in the form of "Vibes"](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/25/meta-launches-vibes-a-short-form-video-feed-of-ai-slop/?ref=spyglass.org). Now, did they rush it out the door to get ahead of this Sora 2 launch? Hard to say for sure, but it sure *feels* that way. The product, if you even want to call it that, is so half-baked and obtuse to use that it's more like an employment quiz. Can you figure out how to create a fun AI video in under 5 minutes? If so, you're hired. Your starting salary is one million dollars. Oh, [you worked at OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/)? Your starting salary is [one hundred million dollars](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/). By contrast, the Sora app is so stupidly simple to use. Hence why I can't open it up without getting sucked in for at least a half and hour as I remix everything and anything that pops into my head. Is this useful to anyone? I mean, hopefully not. But maybe hearing [JFK admit that his favorite movie is the *Care Bears*](https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s%5F68dd3347e7c48191b4de6d697922d1e4?ref=spyglass.org) sparks joy in someone. I will settle for a chuckle. Should we be allowed to make JFK utter such blasphemy? That's above my pay grade. OpenAI definitely has some IP guardrails in place here which I kept running into, but there are also clearly pretty easy ways to get around them. And should public figures be fair game in this game? The lawyers are going to have a field day in this brave new world. Again, let's not get bogged down in that for now. OpenAI is just so good at making fun products out of this technology. [From DALL-E](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org) to ChatGPT to this. To be fair, Google also seems to be having a bit of a moment [thanks to 'Nano Banana'](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%8C%20%27Nano%20Banana%27%20Helps%20Gemini%20Go%20Viral) – the first time in a long while that [they've smartly](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/seeing-jensens-shadow?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Playing%20around%20with%20Google%27s%20new%20%27Gemini%202.5%20Flash%20Image%27%20model%20focused%20on%20image%20editing%20and%20yes%2C%20it%27s%20really%20good.%20My%20only%20complaint%20is%20that%20they%20should%20have%20actually%20named%20it%20%27Nano%20Banana%27!%20%5BTechCrunch%5D%20%F0%9F%8D%8C) seemed to create a viral moment around their tech. And it's clearly driving downloads and usage of Gemini. But that was related to doing what OpenAI did with the 'Ghibli' moment, and leveraging their massive user base around the world. Anyway, good for them. This is not that. This feels like the real dawn – after Meta's faux dawn – of AI video becoming something more than it has been to date. Yes, Runway and others have been operating in the space for a while – and [I could see hints of this](https://spyglass.org/sora-ai-video-generation/) in the initial Sora launch last year – but this type of tool can go truly mainstream. Certainly it seems like everyone will *try* it, the question is if there is any staying power here? [I've long been skeptical](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) that there's much long term value to derive [from such networks](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/), but here I am, continuing to watch these and laugh and laugh and laugh. And unlike just the random AI sloppy stuff, the real genius here is OpenAI making everyone sign up with their own likeness, so that you can inject an almost hauntingly realistic version of yourself into these videos. And then, of course, the ability for your friends – or *anyone*, if you choose – to insert you into their's. This is [not a new idea](https://500ish.com/g3nerative-33a65834604?ref=spyglass.org), but it remains a very smart one. Smarter than [a simple social tab](https://spyglass.org/a-chatgpt-social-feed-makes-fun-and-practical-sense/).[1](#one) Like everyone else, my entire feed last night was videos of Sam Altman. It was both hilarious and creepy. But then it seemed to morph into Pikachu. And then Jesus. Sometimes two of them – or all three of them together! I'm not sure this is better than other AI slop, but it's decidedly more amusing. Again, at least for now. At least until [Hollywood wakes up](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/) to this. [They will not be pleased](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/). Even though there's certainly [an argument](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) to be made that [this will help that industry](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) in ways. In many ways, I'm reminded of the early days of Vine here. You know, the short-form video social network that Twitter bought and [ran into the ground](https://500ish.com/wither-on-the-vine-d8893fddf07e?ref=spyglass.org) before it could become what TikTok became? Yeah, that Vine. I happened to be an early investor in the service and as such, was one of the first users. I immediately saw the appeal of making video creation/editing on your phone as simple as tapping. There was potential to do for mobile video [what Instagram did for mobile photos](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/20/instagram/?ref=spyglass.org). But very quickly the user base of the network took over and pushed the service in ways that were far more interesting than I ever could have imagined. These Vine stars were both hilarious and insanely creative. And with time, they morphed into YouTube stars and some of them into *actual* stars. There are already some elements of this that seem to be popping up just two days into this Sora app. Some people are really, *really* good at making AI videos. I am not one of those people. At least not yet. But [I'm having too much](https://sora.chatgpt.com/profile/mgs?ref=spyglass.org) fun making my incredibly stupid videos to stop now. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [That Loving FeelingOpenAI’s product launches are stirring something which Apple hasn’t in a while![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-351.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Mar-26--2025--09_32_50-PM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) [Sora SlapsPausing the push for utility, OpenAI brings the wonder back…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-353.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-11-at-2.38.25-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/sora-ai-video-generation/) [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-355.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_-10.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) [Meta’s Sloppy AI Social NetworkThe new ‘Meta AI’ is exactly what you’d expect, in ways good and bad…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-352.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_AI_slop_being_poured_into_bowls_--ar_21_--profile_6kai7_3545e1bf-889b-422b-bcdf-0e3ae22758bc_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) [A Spirited Debate Around AIThere are fundamental questions likely without good answers; let’s focus on how this needs to work for everyone![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-354.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-03-28-at-7.11.50-PM-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/) --- 1 Oh yes, and there's the whole TikTok vibe here of the actual app itself. That obviously helps grease the wheels here – especially with those wheels about to *finally* (maybe?) change ownership ([on the cheap](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/)) and... [we'll see!](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) [↩](#) ### Signal: Falling Into Hardware 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-falling-into-hardware/ Last updated: 2025-10-03T15:57:02.000Z Hardware is back in the air this fall. Beyond yesterday's Amazon event (more on that below), later today Google will host their Home event. And Apple may or may not have more to say after their remaining hardware for the year has seemingly all leaked (more on that below). While the first two are now all about using hardware to leverage their AI capabilities, [Apple is seemingly just doubling down](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) on doing the best hardware, period – until their AI is ready to roll. *If* it's ever ready to roll... ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [Grading Alexa+ on a CurveHopefully new devices bring a better version, because Alexa+ sounds like a miss for Amazon thus far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-348.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_4v470u4v470u4v47-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/) [Still Needing a Foundry Partner, Intel Looks to Apple...Maybe Apple throws Intel some (small) business and cash if Trump asks, but a return to x86 is obviously not in the cards…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-349.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/218093e5-975b-4a36-b21f-2552f203b239-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/) --- ### Take One... **🗣️** [**Amazon's 2025 Hardware Event**](https://www.theverge.com/news/788297/amazon-fall-2025-hardware-announcements-echo-alexa-kindle-ring?ref=spyglass.org) – The event itself seemed *fine* – still strange that Amazon doesn't livestream these, instead we need to rely on live-blogs (like the early 2000s!) or [third-row shaky cams](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQjrejEWD-0&ref=spyglass.org)? – if a bit all over the place with devices for their Ring, Blink (remind me why are there *two* smartcamera lines?), Fire TV, Kindle, and Echo lines. Clearly, the intent is to shift to higher-end products after years of getting dragged for a hardware strategy that was more akin to [throwing spaghetti at the wall](https://500ish.com/the-post-steve-jobs-product-keynotes-f076e04365b?ref=spyglass.org). I generally think it's good that they're doing their own chips and OS (finally fully moving off of Android, which, in my own experience buying a Fire TV set, has mean an awful, slow experience). But the key to all of this remains how well Alexa+ performs, and right now... [she's clearly struggling to acclimate to the modern LLM world](https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/). It *is* a good sign that the new Echo devices will ship with "her" out of the box – including on the devices without screens. But it also feels like a [continued slow-roll](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) of the roll-out which [was announced](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) with [much fanfare months ago](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/). I'm far more interested in whatever they're [cooking up *next*](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/). And I don't mean "Omnisense" – "our new custom sensor fusion platform which is designed specifically for AI." Okay. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/788297/amazon-fall-2025-hardware-announcements-echo-alexa-kindle-ring?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Apple's Leaky Product Pipelines** ****• Apple Testing a ChatGPT-Like App** ****• The Free TV with Always-On Ads** ****• YouTube Pays Off President Trump** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Thoughts on New Apple Things URL: https://spyglass.org/iphone-17-pro-max-thoughts/ Last updated: 2025-11-13T22:42:12.000Z There is not much to say that hasn't already been said. Both because people who actually review iPhones these days have already undoubtedly taken every angle, but also because after 18 years of the iPhone, even on an individual level, there's just not much left to write. If you like the iPhone in 2007, and 2008, and 2009, and 2010... spoiler alert: you're gonna like the iPhone in 2025\. I mean, there are *a few* new things to say this year I suppose [because Apple went the 'Air' route](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) with one of the models. But while I'm [tempted](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/) by the more 'Pro' specs there, that just was never going to be the model for me. The two things I care about most in the iPhone are [battery life](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-09-07/apple-s-iphone-17-air-event-which-new-iphone-should-i-buy-iphone-17-pro-mf9n5f9g?cmpid=BBD090725%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250907&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) and the camera system. So it was always going to be iPhone 17 Pro Max all the way. Also, this one comes in orange. That's both sort of weird and sort of fun.[1](#one) Very fall. While Matthew Panzarino used to level-set his iPhone thoughts by [taking it to Disneyland](https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/19/apples-iphone-15-pro-max-goes-to-disneyland/?ref=spyglass.org), I took mine on a more rugged adventure this year: to the Scottish Highlands. Specifically, I was all the way up and out in the Isle of Skye with my newly acquired Apple devices – beyond the 17th ([ish](https://500ish.com/titaniphone-01f1067a99d2?ref=spyglass.org)) iPhone, I also had a pair of threes in tow: the AirPods Pro 3 and the Apple Watch Ultra 3. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4387-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4429-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4396-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4434-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4431-1.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4421-1.jpeg) I'm happy to report that everything performed well in all conditions – including in 13th century castles and 50mph wind gusts. I will say that I was very happy to have the better battery life of all three devices on this trip. Though, as always, it's hard to know how much of the battery life feels boosted because of the new hardware versus it just being *new hardware instead of my old hardware*. In particular, I had (literally) worn my AirPods Pro 2 battery into the ground, it seems. Ditto with the Apple Watch Ultra 2, which was two years old after I skipped the "new" black version last year. Overall, the **AirPods Pro 3** feel like an awesome, no-brainer update. Everything about them is better, most notably the noise-cancellation. Again, some of that is undoubtedly because my AirPods Pro 2 were worn down, but this new model feels like Apple refined and perfected the form factor. While the old ones fit in my ears just fine, these do seem more secure. They also, oddly, seem to protrude more, which may just mean I should try other tips beyond the defaults – though my "seal" test was perfect. Maybe Apple is just preparing us (and our ears) [to add some cameras to the mix?](https://spyglass.org/airpods-with-cameras/) Unclear, but the sound remains very clear! The **Apple Watch Ultra 3** is less of a home run. That's only because it really doesn't seem any different from the Ultra 2 (which itself [didn't seem all that different from the first Ultra](https://500ish.com/apple-watch-2-ultra-2-similar-14ecb66e1697?ref=spyglass.org)). I know the screen is said to be ever-so-slightly larger, but as someone who wore the Ultra 2 every day for two years and switched to the Ultra 3, you can't tell. It has the same chip, which is fine as it wasn't slow before. There is satellite connectivity now, which is nice and potentially handy when you're, say, up in the Scottish Highlands! (Though I never needed it.) I did opt for the black model this year, which is nice. And when paired with my orange iPhone makes me feel a bit like [David Pumpkins](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS00xWnqwvI&ref=spyglass.org). ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/ssh.jpg) As for that **orange iPhone**... I wasn't sure I would like the color as is far more orange than, say, brass [or bronze](https://spyglass.org/shit-brown-iphone/), but it's nice. As is so often the case with Apple's colors, it shifts depending on the light. It can morph [from papaya](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169817351/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) in the sunlight to [almost copper](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168381892/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) when it's more dim. I'm not sure I would ever call it "Cosmic". That glass back plate though stays an awfully muted, dull orange throughout. For some reason, I associate the color with [sherbert](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherbet%5F%28frozen%5Fdessert%29?ref=spyglass.org). I don't hate the color contrast of this area, but it is fairly weird. It almost screams "put a MagSafe Wallet on me". Or a battery back, which, [oddly](https://spyglass.org/a-hypothetical-apple-beats-magsafe-power-pack/), Apple only now makes for the iPhone Air. Feel-wise, when case-less, I think I prefer the 17 (Pro Max) to the 16 (Pro Max). The aluminum feels "softer" and slightly more rounded than the sharper titanium. It doesn't feel less premium to me, but we'll see if and when it starts scratching... It is, of course, also slightly thicker, which I honestly don't mind at all. In fact, I almost wish Apple would go more extreme and maybe make a super-chunk iPhone to accommodate an even larger battery! Could you imagine one so thick that there was no longer a camera bump – er sorry, "plateau"? I mean, that would undoubtedly be a bridge too far for Apple, but who says no to a two-day battery iPhone? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-30-at-5.06.45---PM-1.png) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4232-1.jpeg) Speaking of the "plateau", I think it works well design-wise. When paired with a case, it almost doesn't even look like there's a camera bump anymore. And the whole thing just looks a lot more symmetrical. I'm sort of surprised Apple didn't do this sooner, but maybe they didn't want to be seen as copying the Pixel? Back to the aluminum, the return to that material plus the new "vapor chamber" definitely keeps this thing running cooler. The most heat I tend to notice in my iPhones is actually usually when I'm setting them up when they're furiously downloading and indexing your digital life, and [this was much better than last year](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/). Of course, last year I also had [a weird and painful 40-hour set up/restore](https://spyglass.org/iphone-transfer-takes-forever/). This year was a "mere" 4 hours thanks to using a cable. I'm still not entirely clear why this isn't far faster. In actually using the device, the only thing I would say is that having [more RAM](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/) seems noticeable thus far as apps are quitting and getting tripped up less often. Again, it's hard to know how much of this is just having a new iPhone versus more memory, but at least one of my most-used apps, [Matter](https://getmatter.com/?ref=spyglass.org), which is my read-it-later service, seems to be performing much better for much longer on things like text-to-speech. On top of more battery options, [I wish Apple let you pay](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/) to max out RAM on your iPhone. I would love and pay a lot for a 16 or 32 GB variety![2](#two) The camera system was great and it remains great. The 8x zoom seems pretty solid, though others will be able to test that far better than I can. Ditto with the new selfie camera, which feels like a particularly fun addition this year. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4309.jpeg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4311.jpeg) 1x vs. 8x In terms of cases, I can now [confirm](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1966843676824621326?ref=spyglass.org) in usage that the new 'TechWoven' is roughly 1,000x better than the [failed 'FineWoven' variety](https://500ish.com/fine-woven-95c0bbb975fc?ref=spyglass.org). Not only is it clearly going to [hold-up better](https://spyglass.org/browning-like-a-rotten-banana/), I think it actually *feels* far more premium too. I still miss leather, but Apple made their choice and this will do. [As previously noted](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Apple%27s%20iPhone%20Strap), I also bought the "Cross-Body Strap" to carry my iPhone like Indiana Jones (my preferred analogy, versus the European Carry-All [one](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=It%27s%20not%20a%20new%20iPhone%20magnetic%20purse%20strap%2C%20it%27s%20a%20European%20Carry%2DAll!%20%28In%20all%20seriousness%2C%20will%20this%20help%20with%20phone%20thefts%3F%29%20%5BMacRumors%5D)). I'm still getting used to it and not sure it's really for me. But as someone who still has PTSD from [an iPhone being snatched right out of my hands](https://spyglass.org/an-iphone-stolen/) a few months ago, I definitely feel more secure in using it out and about... Mainly, the thing I find myself thinking about while using the iPhone 17 Pro Max is that it may be the end of an era, in a way. Assuming the rumored timetables are true, [we should see](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) the mythical 'iPhone Fold' next year. And unlike the iPhone Air, I think I'll be making that jump. [I like the Pixel Fold](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/) form factor and assuming Apple can improve the "crease" problem, this might be the last single slab of glass I carry around for a while. Unless the 20th anniversary iPhone tempts me back, of course.[3](#three) For now, the iPhone 17 Pro Max is the [peak](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) (pumpkin) phone. There can be only one. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/IMG_4377.jpeg) --- 1 As someone who roots for both the Cleveland Browns (my hometown) and San Francisco Giants (my home of 20 years), I actually have quite a bit of orange in my life. Also, I grew up going to a school named "Orange" where the school colors were black and you guessed it. Also, I'm told by reliable sources – my wife and older daughter – that orange is very much in fashion thanks in part to Taylor Swift right now... [↩](#) 2 Though I realize this would undoubtedly ding battery life and may cause some heat issues... And it's seemingly just not a path Apple wants to go down with developers being able to target more RAM for those who pay to upgrade. [↩](#) 3 I suspect it will be quite hard to move from a foldable back to a "regular" smartphone, workflow-wise. But we'll see, I guess! Good problems to have – choices from Apple, for once. [↩](#) ### Grading Alexa+ on a Curve URL: https://spyglass.org/broken-alexa-plus/ Last updated: 2025-11-13T22:41:54.000Z [Alexa Plus is smarter — but it’s not yet smart enoughAlexa Plus needs more![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-44.png)The VergeJennifer Pattison Tuohy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/8A0A3802-1.jpeg)](https://www.theverge.com/report/787171/amazon-alexa-plus-hardware-event-smart-home?ref=spyglass.org) I've probably read a dozen such reviews by now of the not-exactly-new-any-longer but still not-exactly-widely-available-months-later Alexa+, [they all seem to](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) wrap their thoughts in this narrative that the new version is an upgrade, but nearly everything they're writing suggests that it's a *downgrade*. > This week, Amazon will [launch new Echo hardware](https://www.theverge.com/news/786455/amazon-fall-hardware-event-2025-what-to-expect-alexa-echo-kindle?ref=spyglass.org) designed to supercharge [Alexa Plus](https://www.theverge.com/news/620005/amazon-alexa-plus-ai-smart-assistant-pricing-availability-devices?ref=spyglass.org), the AI-powered upgrade to its voice assistant. I’ve been using Alexa Plus for the last few months as part of its [Early Access program](https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=206207565011&tag=theverge02-20&ref=spyglass.org), and while the new assistant is off to a promising start, it’s still clearly a work in progress. > > To fix Alexa, Amazon had to break it apart and rebuild it. The result is a hybrid smart home assistant and [personal assistant](https://www.theverge.com/hands-on/710035/amazon-alexa-plus-ai-agent-features-hands-on?ref=spyglass.org), as well as Amazon’s [answer to ChatGPT](https://www.theverge.com/hands-on/705808/amazon-alexa-plus-first-look?ref=spyglass.org). Right now, it’s not doing any of those things well enough. Read: it's a poor-performing smart home assistant, a poor-performing personal assistant, and a poor-performing chatbot. Cool. Cool. Cool. Yes, we all know what Amazon had to do [after making the mistake](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) of thinking they could do it without doing that. But clearly there was still work to be done and yet they shipped it anyway. Why? Internal pressure? For [all his talk](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) of seeking [absolute product perfection](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165849677/a-million-people-now-have-alexa?ref=spyglass.org) – [which rang hollow](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/) – it feels like Panos Panay [made the call](https://spyglass.org/remarkable-alexa-event/) that it was better to get something out there in the wild and iterate on the fly rather than waiting for perfection. In a vacuum, that's fine. But Amazon doesn't operate in a vacuum in this space, they operate in *millions* of homes! Also, they had to be watching [Apple's own AI shitshow](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) unfolding (with some [undoubtedly similar issues with upgrading Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/)) and recognizing they needed to avoid that PR headache. All of which seems pretty clearly why the roll-out has been [so slow and limited](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/). > Today, running on underpowered hardware and with what feels like a surface-level integration into my smart home, Alexa Plus often leaves me frustrated. There’s power under that hood, but it feels largely inaccessible. The assistant desperately needs something to make it more compelling — and better hardware could be the answer. I mean, maybe! But it sure doesn't sound like the hardware is the issue here. The answer will only come if Alexa+ is itself upgraded alongside any new devices. > Recently, Alexa and I chatted about the best ways to use my smart home gadgets to their full potential. It suggested possible routines, built the automations, tweaked them based on my feedback, and tested them — all in minutes, with no fiddling in the (still clunky) Alexa app. It even helped me set up a new air purifier and folded it into one of those routines. > > But there are issues. Alexa Plus is noticeably slower, with some requests taking up to 15 seconds for a response. While turning on lights or adjusting a thermostat is fast enough (I assume due to using local connections over Matter), waiting for over 10 seconds for the weather or a song to play is tiresome. > > Some basic features that used to work reliably now don’t or require new phrasing every time. My [struggles to control my Alexa-enabled coffee machine](https://www.theverge.com/hands-on/705808/amazon-alexa-plus-first-look?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Thursday%20morning%20coffee%20routine%20hiccup) persist, and I can’t get Alexa to consistently turn on my bathroom fan for a set period of time. > > I used to say, “Turn on the bathroom fan for 15 minutes,” and it did it. Now, Alexa Plus tells me it has to create a routine to do that, and then doesn’t run that routine. Or it says, “Sure,” turns the fan on, but never turns it off. I’ve tried this a dozen times and haven’t had a consistent response yet. Clunky. Slower. Tiresome. Unreliable. Inconsistent. Broken. I mean, what about any of this sounds good? The fact that Alexa can handle multiple tasks at once? Can she though?! > One surreal moment: after weeks of Alexa Plus’ new voice, the old Alexa suddenly surfaced when the system hit a snag. “Sorry, something went wrong,” it said in that stiff, familiar tone. For a second, I wondered — is the old Alexa still in there, trying to get out? That's a fun notion. That our old friend Alexa that actually worked is trapped in the cloud somewhere, a true ghost in the machine. The next several paragraphs go on making excuses for Amazon here, but again, it all just reads as pretty inexcusable. If they weren't ready to ship an Alexa+ that could take over for Alexa, they shouldn't have. Or they should have shipped it as something else, perhaps a new chatbot – with a different name – to have the fun conversational back-and-forths Panay clearly wanted. You could have seen a world in which "Alexa" invoked the tasks and routines while "Axel" could have been your new buddy to chat with. (Or perhaps [even better](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-golden-fork-amazon/), how about, [I don't know](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/), "[Claude](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-alexa/)"?) It's silly to have two, of course. And *eventually* they merge, but not until the system is fully ready. Which it is clearly not. That's seemingly closer to the approach Google has been taking with Gemini and their OG "Assistant". They've been slowly but surely swapping the engine mid-flight and we may see [the culmination of that tomorrow](https://9to5google.com/2025/09/02/google-nest-cam-gemini-updates-october-teaser/?ref=spyglass.org) – *one day after Amazon's event*, when Google is hosting their own event related to their Home devices. As an Alexa household for years now, my hope is that Amazon isn't just rushing to beat Google out the door here. Or maybe they think Google hasn't actually solved the whole get-a-non-deterministic-chatbot-to-do-deterministic-things [challenge](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) either? Or maybe they've just been holding back a version of Alexa+ that is actually ready for prime-time now? But I'm pretty skeptical as [all of this](https://spyglass.org/alexas-questionable-ai-upgrade/) was [extremely predictable](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=Amazon%27s%20Alexa%20overhaul%20proves%20less%20than%20%22remarkable%22). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-343.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1-10)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) [Does Emo AI Dream of Mundane Tasks?Is an emotional Alexa setting our timers really what we want here?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-344.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_android_dreaming_of_setting_a_timer_--ar_43_--v_7_aec1a077-8086-4966-8bb3-7d533ee2d21f_0-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) [Siri Doomed Apple in AI, Just Like Alexa Did with AmazonTheir previous “success” in assistants became albatrosses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-347.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_albatross_around_the_neck_of_a_robot_--ar_21_--v_7_17d33bc8-4e5a-4bb7-9bb2-8a1530dc4a28_1-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) [Is Amazon Writing Checks that Alexa+ Can’t Cash?There’s a lot of vagaries and obfuscation around this launch…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-346.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/assets.aboutamazon-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/) [Alexa, I’m SkepticalAlexa+ brings a lot of table-stakes stuff to the table in 2025…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-345.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-26-at-8.21.12-PM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) ### Kill the Cookie Consents URL: https://spyglass.org/europe-cookie-banners/ Last updated: 2025-11-12T12:43:24.000Z [Europe’s cookie law messed up the internet. Brussels wants to fix it.The European Commission wants to take a bite out of privacy rules that force websites to run cookie banners.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-512x512.png)POLITICOEllen O’Regan![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-1236887868.jpg)](https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-cookie-law-messed-up-the-internet-brussels-sets-out-to-fix-it/?ref=spyglass.org) Something [I think about](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1751884894756561334?ref=spyglass.org) on nearly a daily basis is how much time I've wasted of my life clicking away cookie banners. Sure, it's a few seconds here and there, but those add up in aggregate. And I, like everyone who lives in Europe, am doing it many, *many* times a day. Every day. And some have been doing this for over *15 years* now... And it's actually worse than tedious or time-wasting, it actually does the exact opposite of what the intent was: to make people more mindful of their privacy and give them more control. No one reads these anymore, no one. I see you piping up, privacy person... No one. No one. No one. No one. > European rulemakers in 2009 revised a law called the e-Privacy Directive to require websites to get consent from users before loading cookies on their devices, unless the cookies are “strictly necessary” to provide a service. Fast forward to 2025 and the internet is full of consent banners that users have long learned to click away without thinking twice. > > “Too much consent basically kills consent. People are used to giving consent for everything, so they might stop reading things in as much detail, and if consent is the default for everything, it’s no longer perceived in the same way by users,” said Peter Craddock, data lawyer with Keller and Heckman. The better way to do this, obviously, is to set such consents at the browser level. *Once*. Not every day, multiple times a day, for over 15 years. If a user wants to change something, let them change it in settings. And maybe there can be a browser setting to remind people of their privacy/cookie settings once a year or some other time interval that a user sets, if they care. Most users, of course, do not care. Which I know makes these privacy people sad, but it's reality. And we've lived under their thumb for far too long. > Cookie technology is now a focal point of the EU executive’s plans to simplify technology regulation. Officials want to present an “omnibus” text in December, scrapping burdensome requirements on digital companies. On Monday, it held a meeting with the tech industry to discuss the handling of cookies and consent banners. > > A note sent to industry and civil society attending a focus group on Sept. 15, seen by POLITICO, showed the Commission is pondering how to tweak the rules to include more exceptions or make sure users can set their preferences on cookies once (for example, in their browser settings) instead of every time they visit a website. This is so obvious that you have to assume it's not going to happen simply because it has been obvious for the past 15+ years and yet nothing has changed. Because [Europe is going to Europe](https://spyglass.org/tag/eu/), but [especially](https://spyglass.org/eu-no-tech-zone/) when it comes to anything [having to do with tech](https://spyglass.org/the-eu-clown-town/). I complain about this [every so often](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1004004146301886466?ref=spyglass.org) – and [even go viral on this topic](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1504895712839888897?ref=spyglass.org) every so often.[1](#one) And each time, many people respond with a range of services – mostly browser extensions, but some apps too – that auto-dismiss such pop-ups. The problem here is twofold: first, which they work sometimes, they certainly don't work all of the time. Second, 99.9% of users will never use/install such tools. This needs to be changed at the EU level.[2](#two) > I would like to know how much of my life in aggregate how now been spent clicking on consent pop-ups. And I would like the EU to compensate me for this time. > > — M.G. Siegler (@mgsiegler) [January 29, 2024](https://twitter.com/mgsiegler/status/1751884894756561334?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=spyglass.org) --- 1 And yes, I know – thanks to about 2,000 replies – that it's not technically GDPR that mandates these pop-ups ([well, not always, anyway](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1551681251349864451?ref=spyglass.org)). But humorously, one proposed change here is to put these consents under GDPR... [↩](#) 2 Also, while as you may have heard, the UK left the EU some time ago, one upside of that change was remarkably not doing away with this cookie consent nonsense. The banners are alive and well in the UK... [↩](#) ### One Box Office Battle After Another URL: https://spyglass.org/one-battle-after-another-box-office/ Last updated: 2025-11-10T21:16:32.000Z If ever there was a demographic for Warner Bros Discovery to market to with *One Battle After Another* I’m right in it. Paul Thomas Anderson has made several of my favorite films. And not just the obvious ones like *There Will Be Blood* and *Boogie Nights* — I love *Magnolia* and saw it opening weekend in theaters back in 1999 where I distinctly recall many people walking out when \[**spoiler alert** — *can it still be a spoiler alert 26 years later?*\] frogs started falling from the sky. It’s still one of my favorite experiences in a theater — Anderson had made the audience, who perhaps thought they were coming to see a Tom Cruise movie, *so angry* with one single scene that they left. Anyway, when P.T. Anderson has a new movie, I’m your guy. But a funny thing happened on the way to seeing *One Battle After Another* in theaters. I had seen the trailer a number of times and honestly, I thought it looked a bit… dumb? Far too silly for my taste. Far more so than *Inherent Vice*! It left me feeling that Anderson might have his first real misstep. And given my love of his catalog, I was annoyed by this. So I was in no hurry to go see the movie. Well, it now looks like I was right and very wrong. By all accounts, *One Battle After Another* is one of the, if not *the*, best movie of the year. And also one of Anderson’s best movies. [The critics](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/one-battle-after-another/?ref=spyglass.org) and audiences seem fully aligned on these points. And so now I feel silly not going to see it opening weekend (to be fair, I was also traveling). But I feel more silly in doubting Anderson here. But that doesn’t mean I was wrong with my thoughts on the trailer. I view myself as somewhat of a trailer connoisseur, with a long track record of being able to tell how a movie will perform simply based on the trailer. I even used to run a blog devoted to this notion! It’s harder now than it has ever been because marketing is so far beyond simply trailers these days. But for the most part, if a trailer sucks (at what it's trying to convey), the movie is going to bomb. And, well, *One Battle After Another* is going to bomb. Again, not because it’s bad — it’s the opposite, apparently! — but because from the trailer on down, it was just marketed all wrong, and seemingly had a bad roll-out strategy. Now, the trades are about to tout this as Anderson's best opening ever. And, sure. But that's a bit like touting Ichiro hitting a record number of home runs in a year. It's just not what the guy does. [Coming in with a likely $21M opening](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-one-battle-after-another-paul-thomas-anderson-1236387318/?ref=spyglass.org) can be framed as a success in that way, I guess. But if we're being honest, we're grading on a curve here – and one not taking inflation into account, [naturally](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/). More to the point, the movie also cost a reported $130M to make — *before marketing*. That may push the total cost to $200M. That means the movie is going to need to pull in somewhere in the $300M to $400M range to break-even at the box office. And with a $20-ish million opening, that is just very, very unlikely to happen. I mean, stranger things *have happened*, such as when another movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio opened with twenty-some million at the box office in 1997, which seemed like a problem given the movie was reported to be *the most expensive movie ever made* at the time and was massively delayed. But then it kept making $20M every single weekend for the next many weeks. *Until it became the highest grossing movie of all time*, at the time. So yeah, that was weird. But it was also word-of-mouth. And if ever a movie can also benefit from such buzz in 2025, it feels like *One Battle After Another* is that movie. But it’s also not the epic love story with the perfect song. They both are around 3 hours long, but an R-rated film full of political statements and not rags-to-riches glamour feels like, well, a tougher sell. And again, 2025 just makes it a tougher sell still. That $28M opening for *Titanic* in 1997 is more like *a $60M* opening in 2025 dollars. That’s pretty respectable. This is where film Xitter gets angry. "It’s about the art, not the box office!" Which is true, but also false. If movies like these keep performing poorly, eventually they will stop making them. Yes, even P.T. Anderson movies. That is [the cold hard reality](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) of the business in this era. You either die the theatrical hero or live long enough to see your movies go straight to streaming. Believe me, [I don’t like it](https://500ish.com/michael-clayton-in-the-age-of-netflix-b4857e003997?ref=spyglass.org), you don’t like it, [but it is what it is](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/). And one way to at least slow that reality is to market such films correctly and have a good overall release strategy. Forget Peyton Manning or whatever silly ideas you have to appeal to the youths. We don’t need *Fortnite* characters here — [this really happened, apparently](https://www.thegamer.com/one-battle-after-another-movie-coming-to-fortnite/?ref=spyglass.org)! We just need a solid trailer and to let good, old fashioned word-of-mouth do its thing. [This was, perhaps, overthought](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/business/media/marketing-warner-bros-one-battle-after-another.html?ref=spyglass.org). It also means a movie like this [probably doesn’t](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) open in 7,000+ screens. You go far more bespoke to start. Focus on Anderson's love of [eclectic film formats](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/movies/one-battle-after-another-vistavision.html?ref=spyglass.org). Get the word of mouth going as that will so obviously be the key here. I know that seems impossible to do with a $200M movie, but it’s better than the movie opening in a bunch of half-empty theaters around the country. The movie is great, that’s the strength. It's that simple. Use that, don't try to squeeze it into viral moments – especially when your talent isn't particularly suited to that. I realize that’s a decidedly old school approach and tactic, but that was the play here. Anderson is not Christopher Nolan making massive epics, his movies take a far more nuanced approach to market. Anyway, I’ll get off the soap box now and go buy a ticket. --- **Update September 28, 2025**: The weekend tally has risen slightly to $22.4M [per Brooks Barnes of *NYT*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/business/media/one-battle-after-another-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org). But as he also notes, the second weekend will bring a new challenge with a new out-of-the-blue Taylor Swift movie to market her new album release hitting theaters and undoubtedly blow the box office doors off... --- **Update October 13, 2025**: Having now finally *seen*the movie, I have some further thoughts... [Signal: One Subversion After Another 📧Apple’s Pivot from ‘Vision Air’ • M5 Devices • ‘Tron 3’ Bombs at Box Office • Meta Poaches Thinking Machines Co-Founder • Warner Bros Rebuffs Paramount Offer • OpenAI’s Constantly Evolving Cap Table![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-419.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/619ffc07-fa12-41c8-a8c4-8f56598dd00a-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/signal-one-subversion-after-another/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Hollywood’s ‘Black Bag’ ProblemWhen it comes to more subtle adult fare, good luck…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-340.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1536e092ea651dbc75bf36190c555ea238-black-bag.rhorizontal.w700-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-342.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-12.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) [Apple Made the Right Call and a Stupid Decision with ‘Wolfs’The movie would have flopped in theaters but still…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-341.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wolfs-teaser-trailer-052924-22cd578455d94219999905f3ac2ac14e-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) ### The Mysterious "New Ideas" for AI Data Center Build Outs... URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/ Last updated: 2025-11-10T21:15:59.000Z At just 182 words, [the latest Sam Altman blog post](https://blog.samaltman.com/abundant-intelligence?ref=spyglass.org) sort of reads like “well, we’re doing [a $100B deal with NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/), I guess someone should say *something*.” And, to be fair, it’s more substantive than the 49-word press releases that OpenAI and Microsoft jointly issued around [their intent to reach a new deal](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/). Still, by far the most interesting bit seemed to be at the very end when Altman wrote the following: > Over the next couple of months, we’ll be talking about some of our plans and the partners we are working with to make this a reality. Later this year, we’ll talk about how we are financing it; given how increasing compute is the literal key to increasing revenue, we have some interesting new ideas. Not since the Jeffrey Epstein birthday card has a message been so vaguely intriguing. Has ChatGPT brought *another wonderful secret* to the world of finance? A mysterious new model for paying for expenditures? It’s possible! But actually, based on various other statements and reporting on the topic, it *seems* like we may be able to triangulate what they’re talking about already. Plus, as with all these AI data center dealings, which are [always convoluted](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) and sometimes circular, [I feel the need](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) to write them down just to wrap my own head around them. First and foremost, the newly appointed co-CEO of Oracle, Clay Magouyrk, seemed to echo Altman’s statements about this mysterious new form of corporate finance when talking about data center dealings, [as Cade Metz reports for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/technology/openai-data-centers-united-states.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Oracle will pay for and oversee the construction of three of the new data centers. OpenAI will then purchase computing power from Oracle. Oracle’s co-chief executive Clay Magouyrk said that the cloud computing giant would pay for the construction of these facilities partly by exploring new kinds of financial deals with various partners, technology providers and other investors. > > “It is a combination of working with all the right partners and providers to bring all of their capital bear as well as interesting new corporate structures and interesting new ways of doing financing,” he said. That's now two statements around the general topic with two mentions of "interesting" – how interesting! Oracle, of course, is a major OpenAI partner in various ways — most recently to the tune of an, um, *$300B contract* between the two for OpenAI to purchase server capacity in Oracle data centers from 2027 onward. This is a part of the previously announced Stargate project, which seems to be [morphing in real time](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/). The latest [news on that front says](https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/?ref=spyglass.org) that while Oracle will be in charge of three new massive data centers set to come online in the coming years, SoftBank will be in charge of another two. OpenAI will be a partner in all of those, obviously. As will NVIDIA, since their chips will be powering these data centers, naturally. But the OpenAI/NVIDIA deal is a bit different, it seems. Most notably, it sounds like *OpenAI will be the company building, owning, and operating* a new data center (or possibly data *centers*) with upwards of 10GW of capacity. In order to do this, OpenAI will need money, obviously. And part of that money will come from NVIDIA with their (up to) $100B commitment as capacity comes online, and starting with a $10B commit to kick off the project. For that capital, NVIDIA will get equity in OpenAI but it also seemingly unlocks a new business model for both companies. [As reported by Anissa Gardizy and Sri Muppidi of *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-megadeal-nvidia-discusses-new-business-model-chip-leasing?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > OpenAI and Nvidia are discussing an unusual way to structure their new artificial intelligence data center partnership, under which OpenAI would lease Nvidia’s AI chips rather than buying them, according to two people who spoke to executives at the companies about it. This reporting has subsequently been backed up by [Tim Bradshaw, George Hammond, and Stephen Morris for *The Financial Times* as well](https://www.ft.com/content/7cee5e77-2618-4ed4-b600-aee22238d07a?ref=spyglass.org). And while it’s not exactly a new concept for OpenAI since they also lease/rent server capacity from many clouds at the moment, the difference here is the ability to lease the chips *directly* from NVIDIA for their own data centers as mentioned above. And for NVIDIA to lease these to a data center rather than *selling them* outright to the likes of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, etc. This also includes their big “neocloud” partners like CoreWeave.[1](#one) Such an arrangement should allow OpenAI to save money — 10% to 15% by some estimates — which at the levels we’re talking about, is a lot of money! It also means OpenAI won’t be left holding the inventory bag as these chips depreciate. And because OpenAI will always want to be on the cutting edge with the latest NVIDIA chips, this model seemingly makes more sense for them. And the assumed promise of ongoing contracts for cutting-edge chips to OpenAI means a constant and consistent revenue stream for NVIDIA, who presumably can also re-purpose the older chips better than OpenAI would be able to. (Oh yes, and getting that nice equity slug in OpenAI helps grease all these wheels too.) NVIDIA in turn can use these contracts with OpenAI to take out debt to buy servers from other partners like Dell to help build the full systems for OpenAI to lease. One (major) problem with OpenAI trying to build their own data center was that any debt provider is going to be awfully wary of lending them money that they’re uncertain they can pay back — because OpenAI, of course, has no actual profits. And doesn’t project having any such profits [until at least 2030 now](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). And yet debt is [how you do these deals](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/oracle-looks-to-raise-15-billion-from-corporate-bond-sale?ref=spyglass.org). Even companies like Meta, which gushes profits, [uses debt for these build-outs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/meta-s-backstop-is-linchpin-for-26-billion-ai-data-center-deal?ref=spyglass.org). And so NVIDIA is in a way becoming OpenAI’s way to build a massive data center without needing to raise their own debt. NVIDIA is raising it, backed by… OpenAI’s contracts! But wait, that contract also isn’t being paid for with profits because again, OpenAI doesn’t have any. But they do have a lot of capital thanks in part to… NVIDIA! And that’s obviously part of why some are dubious of such deals. But it’s actually more tangled with this debt in the mix. Again, NVIDIA is giving OpenAI money in part to lease chips from NVIDIA which NVIDIA will then use to raise debt to finance the build out of a data center that OpenAI will own. I mean... At this point I have to assume there will be *another wonderful secret* of finance in all this. Because a way to lease GPUs directly from NVIDIA in order to finance data center build-outs is somewhat interesting in its circular nature, but not that exciting. Perhaps that excitement comes from how these players think it can scale? I’m guessing we’ll hear something about how this will create a virtuous cycle where AI demand funds AI build out which fuels AI demand. But if any part of that cycle were to slow — [let alone break](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/)… Hopefully an NVIDIA [always pays its debts](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/G%5FYHGjXldac?ref=spyglass.org). --- **Update October 8, 2025**: Some further thoughts with some new developments... [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-406.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) **Update October 21, 2025**: And even more thoughts... [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-461.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) --- 1 Though the deal with CoreWeave is even more complicated in that NVIDIA has a deal to “lease back” capacity from them if capacity goes unsold — yes, NVIDIA leases back capacity on NVIDIA chips owned by CoreWeave — that’s how circular this all is! [↩](#) ### TikTok Being Sold for a Song URL: https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/ Last updated: 2025-09-26T15:50:24.000Z [Trump approves TikTok deal through executive order, Vance says business valued at $14 billionPresident Donald Trump on Thursday approved a proposed deal that would keep TikTok alive in the U.S.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-34.ico)CNBCJonathan Vanian![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/108095552-1738332765318-gettyimages-2196222817-AA_31012025_2059678.jpeg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/trump-approves-tiktok-deal-through-executive-order.html?ref=spyglass.org) At first, I was sure this was some sort of miscommunication: > [President Donald Trump](https://www.cnbc.com/donald-trump/?ref=spyglass.org) on Thursday signed an executive order approving a proposal that would keep TikTok alive in the U.S. in a transaction that Vice President JD Vance said values the business at $14 billion. $14B. It's a number so comically low that it would seem more believable if it was what one entity was paying for 10% of the company. But no, [everyone is reporting the same thing](https://www.techmeme.com/250925/p48?ref=spyglass.org#a250925p48): $14B is the amount being paid for 100% of the new company. Well, technically they're paying less than that because of the (just under) 20% being retained by ByteDance, while current ByteDance investors get to roll stakes over (while also putting some new money in). But just how small is $14B? ByteDance itself is worth north of $300B – with secondaries currently trading [in the $400B range](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=With%20TikTok%20apparently%2C%20maybe%2C%20on%20the%20verge%20of%20an%20actual%20deal%2C%20ByteDance%20secondaries%20are%20up%20to%20%24400B%2C%20behind%20only%20OpenAI%27s%20%24500B%20mark.%20%5BCNBC%5D). Yes, there's more to ByteDance than TikTok, but it's a huge part of the value. And yes, this is just the US portion of the service being sold, but it's also undoubtedly the most lucrative part given the importance and usage in the American market. > ByteDance investors like General Atlantic, Susquehanna and Sequoia, are expected to contribute equity in the new TikTok U.S. entity, sources told Faber. ByteDance was reportedly [valued](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/27/tiktok-owner-bytedance-sets-valuation-at-over-330-billion.html?ref=spyglass.org) at $330 billion last month. Analysts have [previously estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/tiktoks-us-unit-could-be-worth-as-much-as-50-billion-in-a-sale.html?ref=spyglass.org) TikTok’s U.S. operations could be worth between $30 billion to $35 billion. Even $30B to $35B feels comically low here. ByteDance's overall revenue was [$155B last year](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/tiktok-drives-bytedance-s-29-growth-while-china-business-slows?ref=spyglass.org) and again, TikTok drives a large portion of that – and presumably most of the international sales, which were just under $40B. Again, just the US business is going to be a large portion of that, but even the most conservative estimates there think it's north of a $10B a year business right now. So these investors are paying something like a 1x multiple which is absolutely silly. So where does $14B come from? [Nobody knows](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=With%20TikTok%20apparently%2C%20maybe%2C%20on%20the%20verge%20of%20an%20actual%20deal%2C%20ByteDance%20secondaries%20are%20up%20to%20%24400B%2C%20behind%20only%20OpenAI%27s%20%24500B%20mark.%20%5BCNBC%5D). But one guess may be Snap, which is currently valued in the public markets at... $14B. But Snap famously has [monetization challenges](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20%22Startup%20Energy%22%20at%20Snap) where TikTok does not. In no way should that be the comp here. And even Snap has a 2.5x revenue multiple! Other would-be comps range from 3x all the way past 10x. And those are *public* companies, TikTok will be a private and still fast-growing startup. It would not be crazy to value it well north of $100B. So yeah, this is perhaps the most sweetheart of sweetheart deals. Are there risks? Of course. [And I'm quite skeptical this will actually work out well](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/). But that doesn't change the current value of the property, which is being comically discounted here. **One more thing:** > “It’s owned by Americans, and very sophisticated Americans,” Trump said at the signing. “This is going to be American operated all the way.” Ah yes, except for, you know, *the Abu Dhabi-based* firm MGX ([great name](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-011/#:~:text=A%20look%20into%20MGX%2C%20which%20aside%20from%20having%20a%20good%20name%2C%20sprung%20out%20of%20Mubadala%20Investment%20Co.%20and%20G42%20with%20a%20%24100B%20fund%20primed%20to%20pump%20capital%20into%20AI%20%E2%80%93%20including%2C%20most%20recently%20%24500M%20into%20the%20OpenAI%20round.%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)), which will own some large slug of the 45% the new investor groups are getting. Presumably, they're going to own north of 10% of this new TikTok by themselves. I guess technically they won't be "operating" the new TikTok, but it's a sort of odd statement to make, unless the investor reporting is inaccurate. But it sure sounds like MGX has been mentioned as a major new investor [in all the recent reports](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/oracle-silver-lake-mgx-tiktok.html?ref=spyglass.org) (perhaps swapped in for a16z who is no longer being mentioned?!). Maybe President Trump was unaware of that change, [but probably not](https://spyglass.org/tricktok/). [This has all been one big gameshow](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/). Also, one nugget from [the Lauren Hirsch, Tripp Mickle, and Emmett Lindner report on the matter for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/technology/trump-tiktok-ban-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org): > MGX has been discussing the TikTok investment for months, according to two people familiar with the talks. It was one of several companies in the TikTok deal that stood to benefit from the Emiratis’ data center project. Oracle will [be building a data center](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/technology/openai-uae-data-centers.html?ref=spyglass.org) that will cost about $20 billion in the Emirates. Silver Lake, an investment company, has a stake in one of the partners in that project, [G42, an Emirati A.I. company](https://www.silverlake.com/g42-announces-investment-by-silver-lake/?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, TikTok is being sold for less than the cost of a single data center. One which all of these parties are affiliated with – [funny](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) [that](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/). --- **Update**: [A new report by *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-26/bytedance-to-get-about-50-of-tiktok-us-profit-under-trump-deal?ref=spyglass.org) (un-bylined, per their usual with China-related reporting) perhaps gives more color as to why the price is so low. It's extremely convoluted, but the short of it is that ByteDance may retain rights for upwards of 50% of any profit coming out of TikTok US, despite their less than 20% stake. So if you're truly valuing the company based on future profits... I mean, maybe? But again, this is not a public company. And actually, you know who else is set up to give a massive percentage of future profits to other entities? OpenAI. That hasn't stopped that startup from being valued upwards of $500B now... But in general, this reporting just backs up [my thought that this new TikTok US is perhaps not set up well for long-term success](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/)... --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [TikTok’s American DreamAs investors take over a hot consumer product: what, me worry?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-336.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/9aaf32ad-ceff-4727-b1e6-0d8c8274def3.png)](https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/) [The TikTok GameshowWith your host: Donald Trump. And contestants: Oracle, Microsoft, ByteDance, Apple, Google, Elon Musk, and China!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-337.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--78--3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/) [TrickTokWith the TikTok ban, the Trump administration starts dealing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-338.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--72--1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/tricktok/) ### Still Needing a Foundry Partner, Intel Looks to Apple... URL: https://spyglass.org/intel-apple-potential-parternship/ Last updated: 2025-12-01T09:59:57.000Z [Intel Is Seeking an Investment From Apple as Part of Its Comeback BidIntel Corp. has approached Apple Inc. about securing an investment in the ailing chipmaker, according to people familiar with the matter, part of efforts to bolster a business that’s now partially owned by the US government.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-25.png)BloombergRyan Gould![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x799-3.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as-part-of-its-comeback-bid?ref=spyglass.org) Intel sure seems to have a lot more friends after their de-facto government [bail out](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=Intel%20gets%20bailed%20out). No surprise there, especially given this particular government. Suddenly, beyond [Treasury's 10% stake](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/), SoftBank has [a 2% stake](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171370800/softbank-buys-b-stake-in-intel?ref=spyglass.org), and NVIDIA now has [a roughly 5% stake](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20NVIDIA%20Invests%20in%20Intel). The only problem is that none of these partners has yet promised to actually help Intel's struggling foundry business. The thing which will actually save them long-term (since they clearly won't be able to sell off that business now, thanks to [terms in the government's deal](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172087334/inside-intels-tricky-dance-with-trump?ref=spyglass.org)). So Intel has to stay on the road with hat stretched out... > Intel has approached Apple about securing an investment in the ailing chipmaker, according to people familiar with the matter, part of efforts to bolster a business that’s now partially owned by the US government. > > Apple and Intel also have discussed how to work more closely together, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the deliberations are private. The talks have been early-stage and may not lead to an agreement, the people said. Look, if there's one company that is going to do [whatever it takes](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) to [stay in the good graces](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-donald-trump/) of the Trump administration... Intel clearly knows what they're doing here. And if they get Apple on board, [might that tip Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/) and [all the rest](https://spyglass.org/intel-strikes-deals/) to chip in as well? You know, in the spirit of unity? > A deal with Apple, a longtime Intel customer that switched to in-house processors in the past five years, would represent further validation of the chipmaker’s turnaround bid. Still, it’s unlikely that Apple would switch back to Intel processors in its devices. The iPhone maker’s most sophisticated chips are now produced by partner [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/2330:TT?ref=spyglass.org) I would say it's not just "unlikely" I would say that there is a **zero** percent chance of that happening. That ship sailed long ago and it was quite literally on fire when it left the harbor because the chips were [running so goddamn hot](https://mgs.blog/think-cooler-52a6efecdaec?ref=spyglass.org). Again, this (tall) ask here is obviously to convince Apple to use Intel foundry to produce some of their own 'Apple Silicon' chips, not to switch back to x86\. I say "tall" because it also feels unlikely given the tight relationship between Apple and TSMC – with the former often first in line for the newest processes coming out of the latter. But again, maybe if Trump specifically asks Apple, Tim Cook will figure out a way to use Intel to fab [*some* of their chips](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169453915/could-apple-or-nvidia-save-intel?ref=spyglass.org). Apple has a lot of them these days, beyond just their CPUs. If you squint, you can almost see a world in which Intel helps Apple make their 'C' line of chips, which would be an extra nice narrative since their modem chips were born out of Apple buying Intel's modem business... Mainly, [I just want](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1970943100915970236?ref=spyglass.org) an image of Tim Cook looming [over Lip-Bu Tan](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/) at an event to talk about a big investment and partnership... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/ipeat8229at11.webp) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/218093e5-975b-4a36-b21f-2552f203b239-4.png) --- **Update December 1, 2025**: More smoke around this fire... [Intel Inside, In a WayApple closes in on throwing Intel that fab bone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-709.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_jgnc1sjgnc1sjgnc-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/intel-inside-apple-again/) ### TikTok's American Dream URL: https://spyglass.org/american-tik-tok/ Last updated: 2025-11-06T16:04:42.000Z For all the talk about the logistics and granular details about the TikTok deal, I’m not seeing a lot about perhaps the biggest issue: *is this actually going to work?* I mean that at the highest level. One of the great consumer apps is about to change hands. Is that going to [destroy](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-tiktok/) the product? This is a social network that rose to prominence powered by a very specific type of algorithmic feed and fueled by the money and tactics from an insanely successful (Chinese) startup. Is it actually going to still work when [owned and operated](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/technology/white-house-tiktok-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) by a seemingly random group of investors whose only real congealing factor is the fact that they’re in the good graces of the current US administration? Yes, the group is apparently going to lease said algorithm from said startup in order to [recreate it](https://www.ft.com/content/d27e00b5-1997-4f28-b0f7-19139167be31?ref=spyglass.org) to use for their own purposes. But again, is that actually going to work? There’s seemingly no real precedent for it. Maybe the best thing anyone could point to (and the best hope) here is that Meta and Google have had some success replicating the TikTok model for Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, respectively. But they’re still not [as successful](https://sherwood.news/tech/by-some-measures-tiktok-has-grown-bigger-than-facebook-or-instagram-in-the/?ref=spyglass.org) as TikTok has been. And those are two of the greatest tech companies that rose from startups to become trillion-dollar companies over the past couple of decades. Oracle, seemingly the key tech player here, was a startup in the 1970s. Yes, they’ve recently seen a resurgence and are also looking to join that trillion-dollar club thanks to AI, but to say their experience in such products is lacking is, well, putting it mildly. Now obviously they’ll have others running this new TikTok, and presumably that will be at least some subset of the US team already in place. But there has been a decided lack of details here since TikTok is also going to still be operating globally outside of the US. That’s why there’s been talk of “[TikTok 2](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167799180/tiktok?ref=spyglass.org)” — a new version of the app which has apparently been created with the notion that it would need to operate separately. It’s now [not entirely clear](https://www.axios.com/2025/09/22/tiktok-bytedance-trump-algorithm-lease?ref=spyglass.org) if that will be the case here — which would be it’s own amusing clusterfuck of a situation; trying to get millions of people to download a new app, how has that worked for HBO and others that have tried in the past? — but it doesn’t really matter. One way or another, an all-American (or I guess just non-Chinese) group is going to need to try to replace the engine of a plane with millions of passengers mid-flight. Ideally without anyone noticing. That’s undoubtedly the ideal situation. There’s a world in which TikTok actually *improves* in ways, I suppose, but it’s hard to imagine what those are right now. More likely would seem to be that people start complaining that TikTok has “gotten so much worse” since the Americans took over. That may or may not have anything to do with the service itself and more so just because [people love to complain](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/), especially on social networks, *about* social networks. Remember Vine? If you do, it’s probably not fond memories about [how it ended](https://500ish.com/wither-on-the-vine-d8893fddf07e?ref=spyglass.org). And everyone (rightfully) blames Twitter for that. Once they bought it, instead of realizing what they had — essentially, TikTok before TikTok! — they proceeded to run it into the ground through a mixture of neglect and strategic mistakes. Twitter was always uniquely good at such self-owns, but certainly a group of investors taking over a crown jewel of young people are going to be tempted to meddle here too. Will the aforementioned [political bent play a part in that](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/09/23/tiktok-sale-investors-china-ellison/?ref=spyglass.org)? Everyone will undoubtedly say the right things now, but wielding such power, especially when you’ve paid so handsomely for it, would tempt anyone. You don’t have to be Rupert Murdoch bending news organizations to his will, but also you can be him, since [he’ll apparently be involved here](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/21/trump-tiktok-murdoch-fox-bytedance.html?ref=spyglass.org) — [well, his Fox Corp anyway](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/21/business/media/fox-corporation-tiktok-lachlan-rupert-murdoch-ellison-trump.html?ref=spyglass.org). But even if they do leave it alone in that regard, this deal in many ways feels more like a PE takeover. Sometimes those work, but often they do not. And when they do, it’s usually only after some major changes. But the only major change anyone is looking for in TikTok will be the Chinese ownership aspect, so can a new group truly be that hands off? At the same time, they can’t be *fully* hands off because they still need to incentivize the leadership and team to both stick around and keep doing what they’re doing. Presumably they’ll talk up a march towards an IPO. But that also depends on things like continued revenue growth and overall growth rates. And all of that, at some point, will depend on not keeping everything exactly as it is, but continually changing with the times. And perhaps especially *these* times, given everything that is happening with AI. Regardless, TikTok, as with all such products, won’t be the hot thing forever. This would have been true no matter who owns it. But its founders owning it seemingly put it in a better position,[1](#one) historically, than whatever this looks like. But again, there’s not much real precedent here. Maybe [the sale of Grindr](https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/6/21168079/grindr-sold-chinese-owner-us-cfius-security-concerns-kunlun-lgbtq?ref=spyglass.org)? But even that was quite different. Anyway, I think no one is asking this obvious question — is this actually going to work? — because there are still [way too many unknowns](https://www.platformer.news/tiktok-deal-framework-questions/?ref=platformer-newsletter) about how it’s going to play out. But even just the Occam’s razor version of events suggests a path where this new TikTok is perhaps fine to start and then the problems start to set in, which will lead to some changes, which will hasten said problems. We’ll see, it’s just a guess. But that’s what I do. > [American TikTok](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uf6EY2BZBw&ref=spyglass.org) > Stay away from me > [American TikTok](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzWHE32IxUc&ref=spyglass.org) > Mama, let me be > Don't come a-hangin' around my door > I don't wanna see your face no more > I got more important things to do > Than spend my time growin' old with you --- **Update September 26, 2025**: As the sale proceeds, a (comically low) price emerges... [TikTok Being Sold for a Song$14B?! That’s like an AI company seed round…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-339.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Gemini_Generated_Image_l3d4xnl3d4xnl3d4-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/tiktok-sale-price-is-silly/) --- 1 Here’s [the true footnote in history about Musical.ly](https://spyglass.org/ban-tiktok/#:~:text=a%20propaganda%20machine.-,2,the%20social%20graph%20in%20favor%20of%20a%20rapid%2Dfire%20interest%20graph.,-3) being the true original TikTok. Where are those founders these days?… [↩](#) ### Apple Steps In It With Hollywood, Again URL: https://spyglass.org/the-savant-apple/ Last updated: 2025-11-06T16:03:53.000Z [ Apple Postpones ‘Savant’ Show About Online Hate Groups Jessica Chastain, the show’s star and one of its producers, criticized the decision on social media on Wednesday. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) New York Times Nicole Sperling ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/09/24/business/24biz-apple-savant/24biz-apple-savant-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/24/business/media/apple-jessica-chastain-the-savant.html?ref=spyglass.org) Look, it's hard for me to weigh in on Apple's decision to postpone – indefinitely – the release of their new Apple TV+ limited series, *The Savant*, as I have not seen it. Does it too closely mirror the Charlie Kirk murder? All signs point to "no", but I don't know, maybe if you squint there are elements. Regardless, what I do see is a trend where Apple keeps pissing off some of the biggest stars in Hollywood with their decision-making process. It's honestly really strange. > Apple TV+ has postponed the release of its show “The Savant,” starring Jessica Chastain as an undercover investigator who infiltrates online hate groups to stop mass shootings. The show was set to begin streaming its first two episodes on Friday. > > Apple did not give a reason for its postponement, which it announced on Tuesday, saying in a brief statement only that the decision was made after “careful consideration.” It did not announce a new release date. It feels a bit abrupt given that a promotion for the show is running before a ton of other Apple TV+ content at the moment. And Chastain was in the middle of a of a press blitz to promote it, but fine, I guess, if everyone was aligned around the postponement... Everyone was not aligned: > Ms. Chastain, who is also an executive producer on the show, took to social media on Wednesday morning to push back against the decision. > > “We are not aligned on the decision to pause the release of The Savant,” [she wrote on Instagram.](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DO%5FV2EyEZmj/?utm%5Fsource=ig%5Fweb%5Fcopy%5Flink&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) > > The actress then listed a number of violent acts that have occurred in the United States since they started making the show five years ago, including the attempted kidnapping of Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer; the assassination attempts on President Trump; the Jan. 6 riots; over 300 school shootings across the country; and the assassination of Mr. Kirk. > > “These incidents, though far from encompassing the full range of violence witnessed in the United States, illustrate a broader mindset that crosses the political spectrum and must be confronted,” she continued. “I’ve never shied away from difficult subjects, and while I wish this show wasn’t so relevant, unfortunately it is.” To be fair, she couches [her statement](https://x.com/jes%5Fchastain/status/1970871919143497742?ref=spyglass.org) with caveats about how much she values her partnership with Apple and how she respects their decision, but still... *She made the statement*. And she made it knowing full well what that would mean, optically, for Apple. Make no mistake: she's implying they're doing this for political reasons. And I mean, duh. To be more clear: she's suggesting they're doing this so as not to tempt Trump. It also follows the previous shitshow where [Apple threw](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-wolfs/) no less than George Clooney and Brad Pitt [under the bus](https://spyglass.org/clooney-pitt-wolfs-apple-theaters/) by cancelling the theatrical run of *Wolfs* at the last-minute. In a vacuum, that was [probably the right call](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/), the movie wasn't good enough to break through at the box office. But we don't live in a vacuum. And Apple certainly doesn't operate in one in Hollywood, which [director Jon Watts made *very* clear](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) in his torching of Apple after the decision. Two is a trend. And that's not just about Chastain, but also about the fact that most of the non-tech world last saw Tim Cook either [presenting a golden gift to President Trump](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) in the Oval Office or his performance at a dinner at the White House where [he set a record](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=What%27s%20the%20record%20for%20saying%20%22thank%20you%22%20in%20a%20short%20span%3F%20I%20just%20counted%20NINE%20from%20Tim%20Cook%20in%2090%20seconds%20towards%20the%20Trumps%20in%20this%20clip.%20%5BXitter%5D) for number of times you can say "thank you" in 90 seconds. And so again, regardless of this particular situation, it sure looks like Apple is once again completely shitting the bed when it comes to handling Hollywood talent, while also performing some preemptive compliance. Oh yes, I haven't even mentioned the Jimmy Kimmel [situation](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%A3%20Jimmy%20Kimmel%20Tick%2DTock) which also stemmed from the Charlie Kirk situation. Obviously, *obviously*, that's the key missing piece here. And while most directly tie that to [the Stephen Colbert cancellation](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/), don't forget that the actual OG of a late night guy being [cancelled for political reasons](https://spyglass.org/apples-problem-with-jon-stewart/) is actually Jon Stewart – [by Apple](https://spyglass.org/tag/jon-stewart/).[1](#one) --- 1 Fine, fine, technically Bill Maher was first back in the day on ABC, but [we've been over this](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/17/business/media/abc-jimmy-kimmel.html?ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) ### OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AI URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/ Last updated: 2025-11-06T16:03:32.000Z Keep your cloud partners close, and your GPU provider closer... Following the breaking news yesterday about [NVIDIA making a $100B "investment" into OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/), it hasn't taken long for many more details to trickle out. I wrote about some of them in [the updates area](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/#update) of my post yesterday. But [a report today by MacKenzie Sigalos for *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/23/altman-huang-negotiations-that-sealed-100-billion-openai-nvidia-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) has enough details to dive into separately. First and foremost, while the two sides obviously have a long-standing relationship – including a smaller investment by NVIDIA into OpenAI a year ago – this expansion of their ties seemed to happen quick. Per the report, it largely stemmed from a series of one-on-one meetings between Sam Altman and Jensen Huang – sorry bankers, no fees for you! – some of which took place while they were both on the latest tech trophy tour with President Trump. That clearly also allowed them to give him a heads-up on the deal, which will absolutely help to ease the risk of the regulatory hammer falling here. And that matters because well, the most valuable company in the world is buying a large stake in the most valuable startup in the world. And, of course, these are arguably the two most important players in AI. Someone check to see if [Lina Khan](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/) and [Tim Wu](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) are okay today... Just how big of a stake will NVIDIA get here? > The financing structure for the OpenAI deal is designed to avoid hefty dilution. The initial $10 billion tranche is locked in at a $500 billion valuation and expected to close within a month or so once the transaction has been finalized, people familiar with the matter said. Nine successive $10 billion rounds are planned, each to be priced at the company’s then-current valuation as new capacity comes online, they said. This backs up earlier reports by [Sri Muppidi for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/nvidia-get-2-stake-openai-10-billion-investment?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) and [Kif Leswing & Ashley Capoot of *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/22/nvidia-openai-data-center.html?ref=spyglass.org) who had the first investment being done at the $500B valuation (which seemingly validates that number with a primary capital round versus simply the secondary round that is happening right now) and future amounts being done at the company's valuation at the time of the new investments coming in, respectively. That first $10B at $500B is a nice, clean 2%. And this continues the trend of [Big Tech buying into Big AI](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/). While 2% is not the \~30% that Microsoft is likely to own ([upon conversion](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/)) in OpenAI, or even the 12% that SoftBank is likely to own (after they complete their promised tranches), it's clearly going up from there. Just how high is a matter of OpenAI's valuation at the time of the milestones being hit for capacity. And because there are *nine* (!) of those tranches, it will obviously take *years* – which was my guess and point yesterday – for all the money to come in, if it ever does. Just for fun, I asked ChatGPT to estimate how long it would take for the full investment to be met. It gave me this: > **A reasonable guess: 5–7 years to fully deploy the $100B.** > > Assuming the first **10‑GW site** goes live in the back half of next year and each successive **$10B** tranche aligns with new capacity coming online, a phased rollout of multiple mega‑sites, grid connections, permitting, and manufacturing cadence likely spreads across mid‑2030 to early‑2032\. Front‑loaded years might see 2–3 tranches, with later years slowing as projects scale and diversify locations. Delays from energy, supply chain, or financing could push it closer to the upper bound. Sounds reasonable. Though obviously *a lot* could change between now and then. Think about how much has changed in just the past year since NVIDIA's first investment! For even more fun, I asked what OpenAI's valuation might be at each stage. There, it gave me a roughly $100B - $150B step-up in price every year – all the way up to $1.5T in the final year (2032). Honestly, that's probably too conservative, at least in the next couple of years given what we've seen the past few years. Then again, if the economy does shift – which it obviously will at some point in that span – it could end up looking too rosy. Especially since by that point, OpenAI will undoubtedly be a public company – unless [something](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) goes horribly awry... Again, it just depends on too many external factors to know for sure. So let's just go with the assumption. I then asked what NVIDIA's ownership in OpenAI may look like at that point. And guess what came back? **Around 12%**. Yes, the same as SoftBank's targeted ownership after their current round is complete. That's either an interesting coincidence or the math OpenAI/NVIDIA were using as well when structuring this deal... It won't be this exact because of dilution, if nothing else, but that would leave an OpenAI in the early 2030s that is nearly one-third owned by Microsoft, with SoftBank and NVIDIA taking up another roughly 25% combined. That would be over half being owned by Big Tech – if you want to consider SoftBank "Big Tech". But even without them, just Microsoft and NVIDIA would own almost half of OpenAI between them in this scenario. Again, not including dilution – most notably during any IPO process. And whatever those companies do with such holdings if/when OpenAI is actually public. And assuming OpenAI is public by then, NVIDIA would have quite the portfolio of public companies – on top of the (theoretical) OpenAI stake, they own around 7% of CoreWeave, [and now almost 5% of Intel](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/nvidia-and-intel-announce-jointly-developed-intel-x86-rtx-socs-for-pcs-with-nvidia-graphics-also-custom-nvidia-data-center-x86-processors-nvidia-buys-usd5-billion-in-intel-stock-in-seismic-deal?ref=spyglass.org). And some of their other private holdings – xAI, Mistral, Perplexity, Cohere, Scale AI, etc – could be public companies by then too... Anyway, back out of that rabbit hole... this also feels important for this investment: > In Monday’s announcement, OpenAI described Nvidia as a “preferred” partner. But executives told CNBC that it’s not an exclusive relationship, and the company is continuing to work with large cloud companies and other chipmakers to avoid being locked in to a single vendor. Such statements also feel like they are to ease regulatory concerns as much as anything. Especially since it logically makes sense that a tie-up of this nature between these two sides would naturally lead OpenAI to be at least a little less focused on any work on their own AI chips. Yes, [they'll still want to hedge](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/), but the *need* to hedge is less acute now. > The $100 billion commitment from Nvidia represents only part of what’s required for the planned 10-gigawatt buildout. OpenAI will lease Nvidia’s chips for deployment, but financing the broader effort will require other avenues. Executives have called equity the most expensive way to fund data centers, and they say the startup is preparing to take on debt to cover the remainder of the expansion. Yes, even $100B isn't going to be enough for OpenAI's needs here, as wild as that sounds. Again, only 10% is coming at first anyway, but still, they're going to need *more than* $100B to do everything they want to do. And so they're going to be playing with debt (and [SoftBank's debt](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/)), which makes sense right now [in this environment](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/), but could certainly come back to bite them, [as it so often does when things turn](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/)... Again, perhaps another reason to want to be public at that point... > As OpenAI’s compute necessities increase, a big question is where the company will host its workloads, which have to date been largely housed in Microsoft Azure. Taking the work in-house would push OpenAI closer to operating as a first-party cloud provider, a market led by [Amazon](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AMZN/?ref=spyglass.org) Web Services, followed by Azure, [Google](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL/?ref=spyglass.org) and Oracle. > > Executives have openly floated the idea, suggesting it may not be far off. Some even indicated to CNBC that a commercial cloud offering could emerge within a year or two, once OpenAI has secured enough compute to cover its own needs. For now, demand for training frontier models leaves little capacity to spare, but OpenAI isn’t done looking for new opportunities. This was the entire point of my piece a couple weeks ago entitled: [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) This is happening and as much as OpenAI may have liked to control the entire stack, as it were, of this build-out, it would have been impossible with say, all of their own chips. Even Google doesn't use all of their own chips, obviously. Still, Google has a massive and perhaps [under appreciated](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) long-term advantage right now in AI thanks to both their cloud and their own in-house TPUs.[1](#one) And so OpenAI more closely bringing in the partner they're perhaps the most reliant on right now – [with Microsoft on the outs!](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) – makes sense in that regard. They can't reasonably combat NVIDIA right now in chips. But they *need* to combat Google in AI, and specifically in build-out and cost...[2](#two) I'll jump to the ending of that pieces about OpenAI building out their own cloud... > If they can execute on their crazy spend plan and get not just one, but many Stargates up and running at scale, it will all be worth it. But the issue right now is that Google is already building Gemini with their own cloud and their own chips at scale. That would seem to be a problem – certainly if any sort of market turn happens and it becomes a challenge to raise, say, $100B. $100B you say? Interesting number... **One more thing:** speaking of Microsoft, back to Sigalos... > While OpenAI gets more intimate with Nvidia, it has to maneuver through a number of high-stakes relationships with other key partners. > > OpenAI only informed Microsoft, its principal shareholder and primary cloud provider, a day before the deal was signed, the people familiar with the matter said. Earlier this year, Microsoft [lost its status](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/microsoft-loses-status-as-openais-exclusive-cloud-provider.html?ref=spyglass.org) as OpenAI’s exclusive provider of computing capacity. On one hand, at least Microsoft got *some* heads up this time, I guess. On the other, do you get the sense that Microsoft is going to regret [letting this](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) relationship [go so far south?](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) Yes, they still have their ownership stake (or will, presumably) and yes, they still get some access to the OpenAI technology, but they're now watching SoftBank and Oracle and NVIDIA and many others (even Apple!) give OpenAI these big bear hugs. So they find themselves in this weird position where they'd be perhaps not happy, but a bit relieved if it all goes south for OpenAI in that they made the right "bet" to take a step back and [outsource all of OpenAI's needs](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/), including now the cloud. Because if the opposite happens, OpenAI could be *bigger* than Microsoft... You laugh now, but [this guy isn't](https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/#:~:text=Satya%20Nadella%20is%20paranoid%20about%20Microsoft%20surviving%20in%20the%20Age%20of%20AI.%20And%20his%20employees%20are%20clearly%20feeling%20the%20brunt%20of%20that%20tension.%20%5BVerge%5D)... --- **Update**: Some further thoughts on these topics... [The Mysterious “New Ideas” for AI Data Center Build Outs...Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circular…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-462.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_massive_data_center_being_built_out_--ar_169_--v_7_b58eab90-7490-4473-9d35-53b32c5943b0_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-build-outs/) [OpenAI’s Rising Tide StrategyBetting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-463.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fffabd88-9500-4ae8-8941-b795b69531db-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-rising-tide-strategy/) [AGI or BustForget a “Bubble”, OpenAI has made this all a very binary bet…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-464.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_blackjack_table_with_a_player_busting_--ar_169_--v_7_9d040840-f1b6-4953-a213-d140a143b2a5_3-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/agi-or-bust/) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)Look, it’s a massive deal. But right now, it’s all about the optics…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-332.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_flying_out_the_door_--ar_169_--v_7_39d0996e-f5f3-4e07-ba05-02ac299086f0_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/) [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-334.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-333.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) --- 1 TPUs which, mind you, Google may be [exploring the sale of to other clouds](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-ramps-ai-chip-competition-nvidia?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) so as to [better compete with you-know-who](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-ramps-ai-chip-competition-nvidia?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)... [↩](#) 2 And yes, to a lesser extent, Amazon – especially since they're [so tightly partnered](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) with Anthropic, including increasingly [on their own in-house chips](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-golden-fork-amazon/). And yes, xAI to some extent too as Elon Musk can also seemingly [raise endless capital](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/musks-xai-10-billion-at-200-billion-valuation.html?ref=spyglass.org) and may soon be bringins Tesla into that fold, after already [doing so with SpaceX](https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/)... [↩](#) ### NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time) URL: https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/ Last updated: 2026-02-01T17:06:47.000Z I'm old enough to remember when $40B deals were insanely massive deals. So I'm at least eight months old. That's when [word first started to trickle out](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) that OpenAI would raise not just the biggest round in the history of venture capital, it was a round so large [that it would be](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) *more money than any company had ever raised in any IPO*. And it's an amount so large that it's *still* actually being raised. Wait, what's that on my phone? A billion push notifications about NVIDIA investing $100B into OpenAI. But headlines can deceive.... To be fair, OpenAI doesn't actually use that in [their headline](https://openai.com/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partnership/?ref=spyglass.org) announcing the deal. But everyone else [sure seems to](https://www.techmeme.com/250922/p17?ref=spyglass.org#a250922p17)! *Reuters*' is particularly good: "[Nvidia to invest $100 billion in OpenAI](https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-invest-100-billion-openai-2025-09-22/?ref=spyglass.org)". Doesn't get more straightforward than that. But again, it's not that straightforward. "To" is not just doing a lot of work there, it's doing *all* the work. Because it's not "NVIDIA Invests $100B in OpenAI" – that would tell us that it has happened. "To" means it's going to happen. And it may. Or it may not. But critically, it's not happening *right now*. Let's look at what the press release *actually* says: > NVIDIA and OpenAI today announced a letter of intent for a landmark strategic partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure to train and run its next generation of models on the path to deploying superintelligence. To support this deployment including datacenter and power capacity, NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new NVIDIA systems are deployed. The first phase is targeted to come online in the second half of 2026 using NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform. First and foremost, it's a letter of intent. What's up with [OpenAI announcing those of late?](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) (We'll get to that.) But the real key is in the second sentence: **"NVIDIA intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI..."**. That's not one qualifier, it's *two*! We get "intends" and "up to". In other words, *they may not invest $100B*. Or they may not invest the **full** $100B. Or both. Or neither. And the sentence doesn't end there! "...as the new NVIDIA systems are deployed." In other words, this investment has stipulations. Of course, so did the $40B round, which is why the money is still coming in months later. These stipulations do seem more straightforward – i.e. deploying systems versus say, [converting the structure of the company](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) – but they also seem to come with a time horizon that is *far* longer. "The first phase is targeted to come online in the second half of 2026 using NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform." Phase *one* starts about a year from now. How many phases will there be? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). This release doesn't even make it clear if NVIDIA's investment here will be for equity or if it's just more of a straight-up business deal. The "in OpenAI" part *suggests* that it's equity, but we probably need more details there? *\[*[*Update: some further details on this below*](#update)*.\]* And it matters for more than the semantics of it all, obviously. We're talking about the most valuable public company in the world potentially owning a sizable stake in the most valuable private company in the world. And they're perhaps the two single most important companies when it comes to the future of AI. So yeah, it's a big deal. I'm just simply pointing out that it's not as straightforward of a deal as the headlines may have you believe. Which is perhaps obvious to some, but clearly not to all as messages I'm getting would have *me* believe. And there are *clearly* other layers to this – again, the most valuable company in AI is striking a $100B deal with the biggest startup in AI. Sorry, "up to"! One of those other layers may be the notion that OpenAI is [said to be](https://www.ft.com/content/e8cc6d99-d06e-4e9b-a54f-29317fa68d6f?ref=spyglass.org) working on [their own AI chips](https://www.ft.com/content/e8cc6d99-d06e-4e9b-a54f-29317fa68d6f?ref=spyglass.org). Undoubtedly not full-on NVIDIA replacements – at least not any time soon – but still, if they can move *some* of their workloads off of NVIDIA's stack, that's a huge story. And at a high level, it's a move that OpenAI was thought to need to do at some point to try to control compute costs, [and thus, their own destiny](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). And this was not a good narrative for NVIDIA, obviously. Especially [when Google and others](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-ramps-ai-chip-competition-nvidia?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) are increasingly said to be piling on to [the same narrative](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/)... This deal suggests OpenAI now might *not* be doing that. Or, at least, they may [slow down](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1970162221406618027?ref=spyglass.org) their efforts. *\[*[*Update: some further details on this below*](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-intends-to-invest-up-to-100b-in-openai-over-time/#update)*.\]* And if those efforts were mainly around inference, that also helps NVIDIA because it removes another story about how that's the one area – and perhaps *the* key area going forward – where they had some weakness and were vulnerable to attack. Now, if it's good enough for the biggest AI company at scale... Another angle would be on the OpenAI side. Everyone now knows they need to convert to a PBC pronto, and not just for unlocking the aforementioned tranches of capital. Given the aforementioned [cash burn](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir), they also undoubtedly [need to go public](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) at some point in the near future to fully access all the capital required. These headlines seem to at least take some of that pressure off, optically, if not realistically – because, again, *how long* will it take this money to come in, and in *what form* is it coming in? Is it coming in the door just to go right back out the door in the form of NVIDIA chip purchases? That's, um, an interesting [layer](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) in and of [itself](https://spyglass.org/weavework/)... Anyway, that's not to say this is all misleading or nefarious in some way. There is a lot going on here, but at the highest level, there is also undoubtedly real intent for this to be a massive deal and partnership between the two sides too. In fact, it could end up being one of the biggest business deals of all time! I'm simply pointing out that it's not the simple "investment" that you might think on first read of some headlines. [NVIDIA investing $5B into Intel](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/nvidia-and-intel-announce-jointly-developed-intel-x86-rtx-socs-for-pcs-with-nvidia-graphics-also-custom-nvidia-data-center-x86-processors-nvidia-buys-usd5-billion-in-intel-stock-in-seismic-deal?ref=spyglass.org) is a more straightforward investment. Hell, even [the US Government's investment in Intel](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) is a more typical investment! This is two companies announcing a massive partnership – which seems tied to a partnership they already announced in the form of [the Stargate Project](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/). Sam Altman and Jensen Huang have learned a thing or two from Donald Trump, [it seems](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/). That includes **the importance of a big headline number** – even if it may or [may not](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) happen to that full extent. And if it does, even if it will be *years* from now... **One more thing:** there's someone else who will undoubtedly not like these headlines – someone OpenAI would like to steal [any spotlight](https://semianalysis.com/2025/09/16/xais-colossus-2-first-gigawatt-datacenter/?ref=spyglass.org) from [right now](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/musks-xai-10-billion-at-200-billion-valuation.html?ref=spyglass.org)... --- **Update September 23, 2025**: Some new details on the deal... [ Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI Linking two artificial intelligence titans... ![](https://www.reuters.com/pf/resources/images/reuters/favicon/tr_fvcn_kinesis_32x32_v2.ico?d=317) Reuters Deepa Seetharaman & Akash Sriram ![](https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/GGE5ILN4FRPZHMMZ27MFAYJDGM.jpg?auth=7b2405ecd06f8278d7a0cbe09a30b8abf441451bb0389065f0daa29aec83f7e3&width=1920&quality=80) ](https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-invest-100-billion-openai-2025-09-22/?ref=spyglass.org) First and foremost: > The deal will involve two separate but intertwined transactions, according to a person close to OpenAI. Nvidia will start investing in OpenAI for non-voting shares once the deal is finalized, then OpenAI can use the cash to buy Nvidia’s chips, the person said. So that seems to answers the equity question. NVIDIA will indeed get shares in OpenAI, but with no voting rights. No word on the price of these shares – i.e. are they being bought at the $300B valuation of the most recent primary round, the $500B valuation of the most recent secondary round, or something else? > Under the new deal, once the two sides reach a definitive agreement for OpenAI to purchase Nvidia systems, Nvidia will invest an initial $10 billion, the person familiar with the matter said. OpenAI was most recently valued at $500 billion. This suggests that OpenAI would get that initial $10B when the agreement is made – i.e. *before* the first deployment of the NVIDIA chips in this deal (which again, wouldn't be for at least a year). That's obviously great news for OpenAI. $10B more to spend! Sure, it might still just be spent on NVIDIA chips, but still! > OpenAI, like Google, Amazon and others, has been working on plans to build its own AI chips, aiming for a cheaper alternative to Nvidia. A person familiar with the matter said the deal does not change any of OpenAI's ongoing compute plans, including that effort or its partnership with Microsoft. Again, while it might not change those plans, I wouldn't be surprised if it's *slowing* them down, perhaps substantially. Also, if I'm OpenAI, I certainly want it to be known/believed that this isn't changing our efforts to compete – that might look bad to, say, regulators looking at this deal... --- **Update September 23, 2025**: [This *CNBC* report states](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/22/nvidia-openai-data-center.html?ref=spyglass.org) that any investments will be made "at then-current valuations" -- i.e. the valuation of OpenAI at the time of any new money coming in, so NVIDIA won't be setting any price. The first $10B investment would be done at the same $500B valuation of the ongoing secondary, [reports Sri Muppidi for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/nvidia-get-2-stake-openai-10-billion-investment?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). As such, it would give NVIDIA a 2% stake in OpenAI... --- **Update**: Some further thoughts on the stuation one day later... [OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AIThey need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret it…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-335.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/hug2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-nvidia-stake-ai/) --- **Update February 1, 2026**: Yeah, unsurprisingly, the situation got more complicated... [NVIDIA and the Case of the Missing $100B OpenAI InvestmentThe massive deal touted by both OpenAI and NVIDIA as a landmark one now looks a lot different – unless you ask Jensen Huang…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-952.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Feb-1--2026--03_51_29-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-327.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) [The IPOpenAIA step-back way to frame OpenAI’s rumored mega raise…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-326.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-03-17.49.44---A-futuristic-scene-with-robots-jumping-to-grab-flying-money-in-the-air.-The-robots-are-sleek-and-humanoid--with-metallic-bodies-and-glowing-eyes.-The--3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-328.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) ### Signal: Pumpkin Spice iPhone Day 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-pumpkin-spice-iphone-day/ Last updated: 2025-09-22T10:22:57.000Z iPhone Launch Day! I made my annual pilgrimage to get the iPhone 17 Pro Max (yes, the Pumpkin Spice variety) and... [the Apple Store was packed](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lz6mdh5oqc2n?ref=spyglass.org)! Certainly more packed than I've seen in the past few years of such launches. Seems like a good sign for Apple, obviously. Though also perhaps to be expected given that one of the devices, the iPhone Air, is something you really need to see and hold to make a decision about. (It has a pretty awesome feel [in-hand](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lz6tw3t66c2f?ref=spyglass.org), but I'm sticking with the battery and camera of the Pro.) Currently, I'm in the middle of porting my old iPhone over to the new one. Knowing [how insanely long this has taken in the past](https://spyglass.org/iphone-transfer-takes-forever/), I opted to use a wire this time, like an animal. The good news? I don't believe it will take 11 hours. The bad news? I'm well past 3 hours at this point and it's still going strong... So yes, this method is faster than the WiFi method, but still just an incredibly long time. (I know doing a backup to your computer and restoring from that is faster, but I actually ran out of room on my hard drive – that's how much storage iPhones have these days!) You'd think this would be a much more solved problem at this point. How can we not just do an *exact* image of one device to the new one in minutes if not *seconds*? Obviously there are reasons or they would do this. But *four-plus hours* still in 2025? 🛣️ **Programming Note: I'm on the road next week, but will undoubtedly still be writing here and there...* --- ### A Couple Takes... **🗣️ 📰** [**Meta Approaches Media Companies For AI Deals**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/meta-approaches-media-companies-about-ai-content-licensing-deals-d58c9fb6?ref=spyglass.org) – It's been about 18 months since Meta last pulled the rug ([or the football, if you prefer](https://spyglass.org/the-dune-towers/#:~:text=Lucy%20pulls%20the%20football%20away%20from%20Charlie%20Brown%20once%20again!%20%28I%20make%20this%20joke%20on%20Xitter%20once%20every%20few%20months%20as%20Meta%20does%20this%20once%20every%20few%20months.%20And%20the%20media%20still%20jumps%20whenever%20they%20say%20to!%29)) on their publishing partners, so that means it's time to start the process all over again. Meta is working to strike new deals with various news organizations to pay for content to use in their AI and in a few years they'll decide they don't want or need that content anymore and will stop paying while the publishers scramble to figure out how this could have happened and how to make up for the lost revenue. And then this process will repeat again until the heat death of the universe. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/meta-approaches-media-companies-about-ai-content-licensing-deals-d58c9fb6?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **💣** [**Jimmy Kimmel Tick-Tock**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/business/media/disney-abc-jimmy-kimmel.html?ref=spyglass.org) – Starting to feel like there's no need to overthink [what happened here](https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%90%20Jimmy%20Kimmel%20No%20Longer%20Live), it seems pretty obvious. The FCC head's comments on a conservative podcast started an avalanche of moves, the biggest of which was Nexstar, owner of a ton of ABC affiliates and in the middle of a massive M&A deal for which they need FCC approval, pulling the show. Sinclair, which owns even more affiliates, followed the move. Advertisers, in turn, started talking about shifting ad budgets, and communicated some of this to Disney. At the same time, threats to employees added *internal* pressure for Dana Walden ([one of the front-runners](https://spyglass.org/off-to-the-ai-races/#:~:text=%F0%9F%90%AD%20Disney%20Names,call.%20%5BNYT%5D) to be the next CEO of Disney) and Bob Iger to do something – and the timing of the whole thing was the cherry on top of the shit sandwich, since Kimmel was about to go back on air to address the situation, which could have further enflamed it all. Instead, they took what they thought was the best, quick call to "pause" the show. They're not idiots, they had to know there would be pushback, but perhaps they underestimated the amount, undoubtedly exacerbated by the other recent tangential media moves, including the Trump settlements and [the cancellation of Stephen Colbert's show](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/) ahead of yet more M&A being approved by the FCC. Iger clearly needs to address the situation now – this will be one of his last official acts as CEO – and he will undoubtedly explain it as trying to make the best, quick call around a bad situation, not something nefarious around free speech. But the damage is done because the "corporate cowardice" and self-censorship evidence [keeps mounting](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/jimmy-kimmel-decision-behind-the-scenes-e1ecbbf2?ref=spyglass.org) while Trump takes victory lap after victory lap with no pushback, so he [keeps pushing](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/18/trump-fcc-revoke-tv-licenses-negative-coverage/86223851007/?ref=spyglass.org)... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/business/media/disney-abc-jimmy-kimmel.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Note... - Sort of buried under the 'Meta Ray-Ban Display' [launch](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/), the new '**Oakley Meta Vanguard**' sport glasses seem like a smart update to take over the GoPro market. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/17/meta-unveils-its-new-oakley-meta-vanguard-smart-glasses-for-athletes/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - ***Aside:*** can we figure out the **naming convention** here? These and the non-Display Ray-Bans go by 'Oakley Meta' and 'Ray-Ban Meta', respectively. But the new 'Meta Ray-Ban Display' [use 'Meta' first](https://www.meta.com/gb/ai-glasses/meta-ray-ban-display/?srsltid=AfmBOoqHjT2mh%5FXkyn9KJ08n95CoWXTOSyrmvK5AvlvqJEhysnC6kzgL&ref=spyglass.org). That's clearly intentional – perhaps to show Meta is far more in control of the 'Display models? – but it's confusing as hell! - Speaking of the '**Ray-Ban Metas**' (also confusing if you pluralize the 'Meta' part?!), they may end up the big winners of the announcement, as the halo effect of the 'Display' announcement, may lead more people to try the more accessible model – now with twice the battery (though a slightly higher price). **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/780012/meta-ray-ban-gen-2-smart-glasses-connect-2025?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta** would like us all to know their Connect **demos** did not fail [because of](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) **WiFi** issues, thank you very much. It was software/hardware bugs/glitches – is that supposed to be better? Thanks for the honesty, I guess? **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/781730/meta-explains-live-ai-smart-glasses-demo-failures?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It looks like the "[transcendent mobility](https://www.theverge.com/news/780734/rivians-e-bike-leaks-ahead-of-next-months-announcement?ref=spyglass.org)" vehicle teased by **ALSO**, the spin-off company from **Rivian** has leaked ahead of its unveil in a month. And it's... an **e-bike** – a seemingly heavy-duty one, [likely designed](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-wwdc-trapped-in-frozen-liquid?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Beyond%20the%20OpenAI%20device%2C%20Jony%20Ive%E2%80%99s%20LoveFrom%20seems%20to%20have%20helped%20Rivian%20design%20their%20electric%20bike%20side%20project%20before%20it%20spun%20out%20into%20its%20own%20thing%20called%20Also.%20Unlike%20Tesla%2C%20Rivian%20does%20seem%20to%20have%20good%20design%20taste.%20%5BTechCrunch%5D) with [help from](https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/06/jony-ives-lovefrom-helped-design-rivians-first-electric-bike/?ref=spyglass.org) Jony Ive's **LoveFrom** team... **\[**[**Electrek**](https://electrek.co/2025/09/17/exclusive-rivians-secret-upcoming-e-bike-revealed-in-leaked-images/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The day before that unveil, we might see **Samsung's XR headset** – [aka](https://spyglass.org/disnight-of-the-jackal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Smart%20Glasses%20Are%20Going%20to%20Work%20This%20Time%2C%20Google%27s%20Android%20President%20Says) "**Project Moohan**" – aka their [Android-based](https://spyglass.org/google-glasses-xr/) Vision Pro knock-off, which seems like a weird product to want to knock off when [Smart/AI Glasses are all the rage](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) right now... **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2025/09/18/samsung-android-xr-headset-october-21-launch-date/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - With TikTok [apparently](https://spyglass.org/signal-looking-back-at-hardware/#:~:text=%E2%8F%B0%20Let%27s%20Make%20a%20TikTok%20Deal%2C%20Day%20300), [maybe](https://spyglass.org/signal-metas-800-question/#:~:text=M.G.%20Siegler-,Tiking%20Toking...,-There%27s%20still%20no), on the verge of an actual deal, **ByteDance** secondaries are up to **$400B**, behind only OpenAI's $500B mark. **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/bytedance-valuation-trends-higher-with-tiktok-deal-raising-optimism-.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - And [sure enough](https://spyglass.org/signal-metas-800-question/#:~:text=That%20consortium%20had%20included%20Oracle%2C%20Blackstone%2C%20and%20Andreessen%20Horowitz.%20But%20while%20Blackstone%20later%20dropped%20out%2C%20I%27m%20going%20to%20guess%20that%20if%20a16z%20is%20still%20in%2C%20other%20VCs%20will%20want%20in%20too...), it sounds like other **VC** and **PE** firms are going to be involved in the new **TikTok** deal too. ByteDance? They'll apparently be cut back to exactly 19.9% ownership. Lol. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/tiktok-u-s-s-new-investor-lineup-remains-flux?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Like the aforementioned Meta/Media rug-pull, **SoftBank** is back to their seemingly regularly scheduled strategy shifts with **Vision Fund**, this time **laying off 20%** of the team to focus fully on their concentrated AI bets, namely in OpenAI. **\[**[**Reuters**](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/softbank-vision-fund-lay-off-20-employees-shift-bold-ai-bets-source-memo-say-2025-09-18/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It sure looks like Google's new home speaker will be called... '**Google Home Speaker'**. And yes, powered by **Gemini** – though using Gemini Live will require a premium subscription, it seems. **\[**[**9to5Google**](https://9to5google.com/2025/09/18/google-home-speaker-name-leak/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **NVIDIA** does a [hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)! $900M to hire **Enfabrica's** CEO and a number of his team while paying for a "licensing agreement" with the company that may or may not even be used. **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/nvidia-hire-networking-startup-enfabricas-ceo-license-technology?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Satya Nadella** is paranoid about **Microsoft** surviving in the **Age of AI**. And his employees are clearly feeling the brunt of that tension. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/tech/780946/microsoft-satya-nadella-town-hall-comments-ai-era-notepad?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Apple Injecting Talent into OpenAI** ****• Google Injecting Gemini into Chrome** ****• Prime Video Adding 'The Masters'** ****• Optimus vs. the Global Economy** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: Meta Vision 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-meta-vision/ Last updated: 2025-09-18T20:46:46.000Z A Meta-heavy topside as I work through all the various pieces from their keynote and AI glasses unveil yesterday. On a, yes, meta level, I have some thoughts about the way they're framing all of this (puns for shame). [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-319.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Take One... **🤓** [**Meta Launches $799 Glasses**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/meta-launches-799-glasses-with-screen-in-bid-for-mainstream-hit?ref=spyglass.org) – There's quite a bit of information that wasn't in the keynote packed in here about the 'Meta Ray-Ban Display' (an almost comically generic name, but I guess makes it clear which version you're buying?) – including that Meta is now referring to the category as "AI Glasses". Also of note, they'll be sold at retail to start (not online), clearly to get people hands-on time with them. And that makes the EssilorLuxottica partnership [even more key](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) with this version as they'll be sold at places like Lenscrafters (as well as Best Buys and some Verizon stores). Meta is clearly trying to temper expectations here, noting they expect sales of "over 100,000" in the first year, not millions, and it doesn't sound like Meta is even making that many. And that may be in part because they're pretty clearly being sold at a loss. I do appreciate Andrew Bosworth not shying away from mentioning the prism-wearing elephant in the room, in the form of Google Glass. He thinks some of the ideas there were right, but the timing was off. **One more thing:** he confirmed they've been toying around with [a smartwatch](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) – seems like an obvious extension of the Neural Band, no? **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/meta-launches-799-glasses-with-screen-in-bid-for-mainstream-hit?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### I Quote... > "Is there a world where, in five or seven years, the vast majority of those glasses are AI glasses in some capacity? I think that it's kind of like when the iPhone came out and everyone had flip phones. It's just a matter of time before they all become smartphones." – **Mark Zuckerberg**, [talking to Alex Heath](https://sources.news/p/meta-ray-ban-display-glasses-zuck?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=1em7l&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) (quite the way to launch [a new newsletter](https://sources.news/?ref=spyglass.org)!), about the Meta Ray-Ban Display. I get the sentiment but there's one key difference: those billions of people *need* to wear glasses. To see. I'm one of them. They're a medical device. For the other several billion that don't, it will require an entirely new frame of mind around utility, convenience, and fashion. Honestly, I hope they're thinking about it smarter than that statement. Heath pulls a bunch of other interesting tidbits out of Zuckerberg and CTO Andrew Bosworth, including some details about how you type using the Neural Band, which Zuck showed off on stage but didn't fully explain – it sounds similar to [the experience I had way back when with the device that was the precursor](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) to this band. It's pretty clear this new wearable is a winner – and Zuck is debating making it a platform on its own. --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• NVIDIA's Investment in Intel** ****• Jimmy Kimmel No Longer Live** ****• A Face-On Report for Meta's New AI Glasses** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta Reframes Their Reality URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/ Last updated: 2025-10-31T15:00:30.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-1.png) Live tech demos are a bitch. It was true [15 years ago](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-l1KWAX3y50&t=270s&ref=spyglass.org) when Steve Jobs famously couldn't get his brand new iPhone 4 to load a website on stage, [and it was true yesterday](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80s0chTOsK0&ref=spyglass.org), when Mark Zuckerberg couldn't accept a video call sent to his smart glasses. And his wasn't the only demo that wouldn't work for the same reason. We've solved a lot of new and interesting technological challenges over that time frame but we haven't fixed the physics of WiFi signal interference, sadly.[1](#one) And it's too bad because it clearly distracted from the unveiling of Meta's new 'Ray-Ban Display' glasses, their first foray into a wearable with a screen and a brand-new method of input – both of which sound cool, but the demo glitches made it hard to *see* just how cool they are. The good news is that the moment should be lost in time because Meta is releasing these in just a couple of weeks. So if we can look past that part of the keynote – and [I wrote up some thoughts about the general play ahead of time](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) because everything leaked, as well as [early thoughts on the 'Neural Band'](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) which I knew a thing or two about as an investor in the company Meta bought – I think the most interesting element was the way Zuck framed the event. Because it was clearly an attempt to reframe the company. As you may recall, this is a company that was once called Facebook. But now that's just one of many apps in their arsenal. The company shifted to 'Meta' after they bought Oculus and clearly believed that VR would be the future of computing.[2](#two) As it turns out, such thinking may have been premature. In fact, [it's still not clear](https://500ish.com/facebooks-second-act-c15d2cce207d?ref=spyglass.org) that VR will [*ever*](https://spyglass.org/vr-market-share-meta-apple/) fully mature – at least not to the point that Zuck and company were thinking about four years ago. While it wasn't that long ago, a lot has changed since then. Namely, AI. Zuckerberg has spoken before about his mistake in believing that VR (and AR) would beat AI to market, at least in terms of mainstream usage. When ChatGPT launched and made the opposite true, it created an awkward situation for Meta, certainly in name – literally. And so that's why you heard Zuck kick off Connect today with the statement: > "Our goal is to build great looking glasses that deliver personal superintelligence and a feeling of presence using realistic holograms. And these ideas combined are what we call the Metaverse." To spell out the key elements there: 1. **Glasses** 2. **Superintelligence** 3. **Presence** 4. **Metaverse** To take it a step further: 1. While others have done glasses, the focus is **great looking** glasses 2. While others talk superintelligence, we focus on the **personal** variety 3. Presence has been tried, but it needs to feel real which we do with **holograms**[3](#three) 4. All of this makes up *our* definition of the **Metaverse** This statement is Zuck saying that he actually wasn't wrong to rename the company Meta, because they can reframe what "Meta" means by taking everything else they're doing and backing into it. It's a stretch, but fine. He went on to talk up the notion that glasses are the ideal form-factor for AI. This also feels a bit backed into because it's the one form factor where Meta has had some success and most importantly, that isn't a phone. Talking up the idea of technology aiding us but then getting out of the way, "I think that we lost it a little bit with phones. And we have the opportunity to get it back with glasses." Zuckerberg is hardly the only one with such talking points. And that includes [people who have been instrumental](https://spyglass.org/jony-ive-laurene-powell-jobs-io/) in creating our current world of smartphones. But Zuck probably has the most to lose if they can't break this stranglehold that Apple (and to a lesser extent, Google) has on the world. And that's why [he keeps searching](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) for what's next. VR. AR. AI. But again, there needs to be *a device* on which these things run. Right now, it's still the phone. But Zuck needs it to not be the phone. And so it's glasses in his eyes. The obvious concern would be that this isn't necessarily because it *will be* glasses, but instead because glasses is where Meta is seeing success at the moment. Again, we're backing into things... That doesn't mean he'll be wrong. I, for one, as someone who wears glasses full time, hope he's right! But I'm not yet convinced that he is. My bet would be that glasses play *a part* in the future of computing, but perhaps not the main role. That will likely continue to be played by the smartphone for the foreseeable future. When pressed, everyone, including undoubtedly Zuck, [will admit that](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/). But it's just an impossible vision to have to sell when you don't control a smartphone platform. Still, nothing changes eventually if you don't *try* to change things. So Meta deserves a lot of credit for continuing to push here – and in VR too with the Quest, and [the Horizons platform](https://spyglass.org/metas-quest-against-apple/) elements Zuck talked up at the end of his portion of the keynote. Meta has gone far beyond the point where other companies would have thrown in the towel. Even if they were true believers, Wall Street would have made them. And that's where founder control can buy what money literally can't. No other public company would be allowed to make such bets for so long. To spend upwards of $100B on projects that generate very little revenue, let alone profit. And that was before AI entered the picture and [jacked that spend up](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) by at least a few times if not an order of magnitude when it's all said and done. "This is going to be the most important technology of our lifetimes," Zuckerberg said very clearly on stage about AI (fine, I guess technically about "superintelligence") – just in case [all of his other moves](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) the past many months haven't made that abundantly clear. But unlike with VR, Meta is not operating in a relative vacuum in AI. Not only is there competition, there are rivals that look far ahead at the moment. And that's where and why ["*Personal* Superintelligence"](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) has come into the picture. "AI should serve people. Not just be something that sits in a data center automating large parts of society," Zuck noted in a shot at OpenAI and probably Google and anyone else working in the space. Those folks don't (yet) have the new form factor for AI. Which again, gives the feeling as to why Meta is so quick to double and triple down on glasses here. [Google is coming](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/). [Apple is coming](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/). [Amazon is coming](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Amazon%27s%20AR,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). OpenAI is coming – [with something](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). *But Meta is here*. Shipping what looks to be an impressive product at an impressive price point. But all of that doesn't ensure that it will be enough to create a successful product. It still might be too early. It probably is. Beyond just the technical limitations, there are new norms that still need to be established for people wearing around glasses with cameras. The Ray-Ban Metas were a first step (well, technically Snap's Spectacles were perhaps [the first step](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/)), and this would seem to be step two. But no one yet knows how many steps will actually be needed here. If it's three, that's great for Meta. If it's ten, maybe less so. And all of that is especially true when Google Glass was a big step *back* a decade ago. Is the world now ready for always-on, recording glasses? Zuckerberg notes how useful such capabilities are when meeting with people and not needing to take explicit notes for follow-up items. But how much of that is a regular person problem versus a Mark Zuckerberg problem? Another odd thing not to mention in this keynote: the Orion demo. [Just a year ago](https://spyglass.org/metas-frenetic-connect-keynote/), this was Zuck's early glimpse into the future. But that was mainly AR. And now it's all about AI. So are we retconning that project or, [more likely](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/), will it also just be roped into this new vision for the meta Meta? The future was virtual reality. Then augmented reality. Now artificial intelligence. And so there I am again, wondering how much of this entire thing, from the new mission statement on down, was backed into. That doesn't mean it won't work, it just makes the path to success less obvious. What if there's another new hot thing in a few years? Will the focus shift again? With Meta, from the name on down, you always have to wonder... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta Looks to Overcome the ‘Glasshole’ StigmaWith Ray-Ban, they can keep the pressure on in the ‘smart glasses’ space as it shifts back to screens…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-320.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-16-at-9.22.27---AM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) [A Mere Thought of a Flick of the WristWith an AI assist, Meta nears the productization of CTRL-Labs gesture (and non-gesture) interface wristband![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-321.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-07-24-at-5.53.54---PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) [Meta’s March to Make the iPhone ‘The Thing That Gets Us to the Thing’The company will build anything and everything to end the smartphone era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-322.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/599220-7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) ## Spyglass Signal A daily newsletter by M.G. Siegler Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Sent from afar on weekdays... --- 1 I was there in the audience at WWDC 2010 when Steve Jobs told everyone to turn off their WiFi. It got quite the laugh. He wasn't kidding. It was quite the surreal moment. He was *pissed*. [↩](#) 2 They perhaps [had some other reasons to try to change the narrative around the company](https://500ish.com/verse-meta-verse-f6ea5ba548c3?ref=spyglass.org), which people tend to forget now. So it may have worked! [↩](#) 3 Sort of strange that this was the one element of his equation that they didn't talk about at all yesterday. Though he almost hinted at it with his "there is no 8-bit Eiffel Tower here" quip during the Horizons portion (which was worth a legit laugh). [↩](#) ### Signal: Looking Back at Hardware 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-looking-back-at-hardware/ Last updated: 2025-09-18T19:23:32.000Z With all eyes about to be on Meta tonight and what they have in store [for our eyes](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) ([and wrists](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/)), I took a look back to [Apple's event last week](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) and specifically how it was framed. [With](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) [both](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/) in relative positions of weakness when it comes to AI, it feels like both are now trying to use hardware as shows of strength... [Apple’s Flight to SafetyA refocusing on design and hardware might be a good sign…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-315.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_The_Apple_logo_surrounded_by_beautiful_design_flourish__054afdb5-c6ea-488c-a7e0-995ca28aa3b7_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Others Wrote... ##### **⚖️** [**Teen Safety, Freedom, and Privacy**](https://openai.com/index/teen-safety-freedom-and-privacy/?ref=spyglass.org) Sam Altman takes to the OpenAI blog ([versus his own](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/), [this time](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/)) to make the case for the trade-off the company will try to make with user privacy for ChatGPT going forward. Not a lot of details, but it's easy to read and understand the needle they're trying to thread. They essentially want the doctor/patient and/or attorney/client privileges with exceptions for 'the most critical risks". There are going to be a lot of gray lines there, one imagines – in part because another principle is to "treat adult users like adults". And that leads to the safeguards they're working on to better identify and handle under-18 accounts. All of this will be [easier said than done](https://www.platformer.news/openai-teen-accounts-safety-senate-hearing/?ref=spyglass.org) – understatement, obviously – and it's not clear it will be enough. But they're clearly moving fast as [this all feels](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20the%20tragedies%20being%20linked%20to%20chatbots%2C%20the%20AGs%20of%20California%20and%20Delaware%2C%20who%20hold%20the%20PBC%20fate%20of%20OpenAI%20in%20their%20hands%2C%20make%20it%20pretty%20clear%20that%20these%20situations%20may%20be%20altering%20their%20thinking...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) [pretty existential](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20OpenAI%27s%20Behavioral,%5BTechCrunch%5D) [for the company](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) (and broader sector). **\[**[**OpenAI**](https://openai.com/index/teen-safety-freedom-and-privacy/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ##### **📚** [**I Wasn’t Sure I Wanted Anthropic to Pay Me for My Books**](https://www.wired.com/story/anthropic-settlement-books-copyright/?ref=spyglass.org) On a tangential, but related topic, given the [book theft settlement proposed](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/) ([which the judge has yet to agree to](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=In%20a%20twist,has%20been%20framed...)) by Anthropic, Steven Levy has decided he would like to be paid for his many works. But beyond any would-be bathroom renovations, his real point is that there should be a technical and scalable solution for this symbiotic relationship between author and AI. **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/anthropic-settlement-books-copyright/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ##### **🎭** [**Robert Redford Dies at 89**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/movies/robert-redford-dead.html?ref=spyglass.org) As all of his obits zero in on, Redford was clearly – *clearly* – not a person who liked to be pinned down. He was obviously a great actor but just as he found success in a certain genre, he would change course. The same was true with his directing. And even with his business endeavors and activism. I mean, he first went to college on a baseball scholarship only to get [kicked out](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/robert-redford-dead-all-the-presidents-men-1236520246/?ref=spyglass.org)! Pretty wild that he only got one Oscar nomination for acting (*The Sting*) over a 60-year career, but [then won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List%5Fof%5Fawards%5Fand%5Fnominations%5Freceived%5Fby%5FRobert%5FRedford?ref=spyglass.org) the Best Director Oscar for his *first* such movie (*Ordinary People*). And of all his movies, his biggest hit, monetarily, was *Indecent Proposal* – well, perhaps until his last (small) role in *Avengers: Endgame*! He was also [instrumental](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/business/media/bob-woodward-robert-redford.html?ref=spyglass.org) in getting *All the President's Men* both written and made – [same with](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/movies/robert-redford-activism.html?ref=spyglass.org) *The Candidate*. Just as Paul Newman was instrumental in securing Redford's stardom by going to bat for him with *Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid* (their ongoing friendship after that was [quite humorous](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/movies/robert-redford-paul-newman.html?ref=spyglass.org)). He also starred in endless underrated movies that get better with age from *Sneakers* to *Spy Game*. He was, in many ways, *The Natural*. **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/movies/robert-redford-dead.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Note... - Is **OpenAI** ramping up their robotics work (again) to compete with Elon and a growing number of [others](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/robotics-startup-physical-intelligence-talks-raise-5-billion-valuation?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) on **humanoid robots** – or is it to help train future models with real world literal hands-on data in the push towards **AGI**? Probably both? **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-ramps-up-robotics-work-in-race-toward-agi/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Microsoft** is being more explicit in their recent [favoring](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) of **Anthropic's** models over **OpenAI** for an increasing number of use-cases. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/report/778641/microsoft-visual-studio-code-anthropic-claude-4?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - With [another](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) slight of **GPT-5**, OpenAI updates their **Codex** tool with a new version of the model better geared towards vibe coding. **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/15/openai-upgrades-codex-with-a-new-version-of-gpt-5/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **NVIDIA** seems to be pulling back from their '**DGX**' attempt to compete with AWS and other third-party **clouds**, instead using the capacity itself. It was probably both too expensive and created a weird dynamic with the other [partner clouds](https://spyglass.org/weavework/) which have [become vital](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) with such a high concentration of revenue tied up in Big Tech buying chips... **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-steps-back-cloud-effort-compete-aws?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Remember **LimeWire**? If you had access to a broadband connection in the early 2000s you do. Well after an attempt to be re-born as an NFT thing, now they're buying **Fyre Fest** because of course they are. **\[**[**Fast Company**](https://www.fastcompany.com/91404677/limewire-bought-fyre-fest-brand?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The price? A very specific **$245,300**. And **Ryan Reynolds** apparently couldn't afford to pay that much as he was "outbid" (which is undoubtedly just some lame viral marketing gag). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/us/limewire-crypto-fyre-festival.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Remember **AOL**? **Apollo** is exploring a sale of the internet powerbroker before said broadband. Yes, *another* sale. Yes, for a fraction of the price (**$1.5B**) of the last sale ($4.4B, a decade ago by Verizon – though it was sold more recently in a bundle deal *with Yahoo* to Apollo for $5B). **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/apollo-explores-sale-of-internet-pioneer-aol-7185a3e1?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - We can make the joke about the **dial-up** business, [but it's ending soon](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171476827/aol-dial-up-signing-off?ref=spyglass.org). Still, the company is apparently doing **$400M in EBITDA** thanks to software, [ads](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171476827/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org), and yes, email. Who might buy? - Should we panic over the impending **fertility crash**? Pretty wild that pretty much all models have global population peaking at or around **10 billion** – and all before the end of this century. Still, there may actually be upsides and certainly there are many unknowns... **\[**[**Economist**](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/09/11/dont-panic-about-the-global-fertility-crash?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **Soundgarden** has a new album with unreleased **Chris Cornell** tracks! About 8 of them, according to drummer **Matt Cameron**, who also gave a bit more color as to why he [recently departed Pearl Jam](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/summers-sobering-box-office?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=I%20first%20knew%20of%20Matt%20Cameron%20as%20Soundgarden%27s%20drummer%20%E2%80%93%20which%20he%20was%20for%2011%20years.%20But%20he%20joined%20Pearl%20Jam%20%28a%20band%20he%20helped%20bring%20together%20through%20his%20drums%20on%20some%20demo%20tapes%29%20in%201998%20after%20they%20kept%20cycling%20through%20drummers%20and%20stayed%20for%2027%20years%20until%20stepping%20down%20now.%20%5BRolling%20Stone%5D) (just sounds overworked from touring). **\[**[**Billboard**](https://www.billboard.com/music/rock/soundgarden-final-album-after-rock-hall-induction-1236067155/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Apple** continuing the renew-the-show-just-as-the-new-season-debuts [trend](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/#:~:text=There%20was%20some%20concern%20that%20Peacock%20doing%20a%20binge%2Dstyle%20drop%20of%20The%20Office%20spin%2Doff%20The%20Paper%20meant%20that%20it%20wasn%27t%20any%20good.%20But%20the%20fact%20that%20they%27ve%20already%20renewed%20it%20for%20season%202%20ahead%20of%20that%20debut%20seems%20like%20a%20very%20good%20sign.%20%5BTHR%5D) with ***The Morning Show*** starting season 4 tonight and now season 5 greenlit. **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/16/the-morning-show-season-4-premieres-on-apple-tv-as-apple-greenlights-season-5/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "I want the ambush marketers — the vodka brands and the gift-bag people and the Paris Hiltons — to go away forever. They have nothing to do with what’s going on here!" – **Robert Redford** [talking to a reporter](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/movies/robert-redford-dead.html?ref=spyglass.org) at and about his Sundance Film Festival in 2012\. Again, as he found success, he would zag. Though Sundance did seem of particular importance to him and it's impossible to argue with his legacy with regard to independent filmmaking there. Incidentally, [the festival shifts to Boulder in 2027](https://www.sundance.org/new-sundance-film-festival-home/?ref=spyglass.org). The very same place where Redford was booted out of college.... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• The TikTok Deal** ****• The iPhone Air Flop?** ****• A Touchscreen MacBook?** ****• Spies and Scotch and Martinis** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple’s Flight to Safety URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-hardware-design-ai/ Last updated: 2025-10-31T15:00:07.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-17-at-2.00.04---PM-1.png) At first [I was confused by the opening of Apple’s iPhone event last week](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/). Why trot out an old Steve Jobs quote about design for an event that was no more focused on design than any other Apple event? Sure, all of their operating systems were getting a fresh coat of paint, but those were outlined [at WWDC months prior](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/). And yes, the iPhone Air was a bigger design change than we get most years, but it’s seemingly more of an engineering feat as the overall look of the device is similar, “just” thinner! Anyway, subsequent press [interviews](https://spyglass.org/signal-openais-pbc-race-is-on/#:~:text=Stupid%20Tech%5D-,I%20Quote...,-%22An%20iPhone%20for) that various Apple executives [have done](https://spyglass.org/signal-fine-woven-revisited/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20iPhone%20Air%3A%20Will%20It%20Bend%3F), and just thinking about it more, and I think I have my (obvious) conclusion. The usage of the Jobs statement about design was less about design and more about making a statement: that Apple was still Apple. After [months of hand-wringing and endless chatter](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) about Apple’s position with AI — with internal turmoil spilling into the press — I think Tim Cook and the rest of Apple’s executive team decided to hit pause and take a step back. While Apple has certainly had trouble wrapping their heads around this new market — a sentiment the stock market has made pretty clear — at the end of the day, Apple still sells the devices that are the envy of the entire industry. From the iPhone to the MacBook, Apple still makes the devices on which much of the world *uses* the latest and greatest AI. That still matters — to the tune of billions upon billions of dollars in sales of said hardware. Maybe it was time for Apple to stop apologizing that this is all they do and to go back to focus on doing it. That’s not to say they’re abandoning AI, clearly they’re not. But it’s also important to maintain perspective here. AI, for all the hype, is still incredibly early, technology-wise. When [Tim Cook says that Apple still can be a key player here](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/), I don’t read that as being disingenuous — despite the early struggles, he might very well be right. It sort of depends on just how early we are in the cycle and what elements end up mattering. On the extreme: if the [continued race](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) to build cutting-edge “frontier” LLMs asymptotes into an [insanely expensive](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) boondoggle, Apple will look incredibly smart having sat back and watched it play out. At the other end, if Apple is sitting on their hands — hands with access to [near endless profits](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) that is mostly being used to buyback stock at the moment — while others create the future technology that will end up vital to Apple… well, that would be bad. The reality will probably be somewhere in between those two extremes. And because it’s all still moving so fast, there’s certainly a number of situations where Apple looks savvy for [sitting back and waiting](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/). I would argue that if they’re not learning during that “waiting” time, that’s a major problem. But they’ve made enough changes at this point that they seem to understand that. And now it’s just a question of if what they learn can lead to great products or if some of [the internal cultural issues](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) that have [clearly led](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) to the missteps to date keep holding them back. We’ll see. But in the meantime, it’s not like Apple is just going to stop making iPhones, or MacBooks, or iPads, or Apple Watches, or AirPods, or even Vision Pros! And again, they shouldn’t be embarrassed that this is what they do! It’s important for everyone, including all of the players in AI, of course. And so you couple this with [various reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/apple-s-ai-turnaround-plan-robots-lifelike-siri-and-home-security-cameras?ref=spyglass.org) about [robust](https://spyglass.org/facepod-ipad-robot-arm/) [hardware](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) [pipelines](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) and the messaging this past week and I think we see an Apple not necessarily *retreating* to safety, but certainly flying back there! “Let’s remind the world why they need us!” you might imagine someone like Greg Joswiak saying from a marketing perspective.[1](#one) That doesn’t mean completely avoiding talking about AI, but talking about it tangentially. Talking about how the hardware is going to be insanely great at running such technology. And this will be underscored [if and when they strike a deal with Google](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) to bring Gemini power to their own software and services. [Perhaps alongside](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) models from OpenAI and perhaps even Anthropic too. Because why not offer your users the best? Apple hasn’t always done that — see: Apple Maps and [ironically enough](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/), [NVIDIA chips back in the day](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/) — but generally they try to make that happen — see: the Google Search deal even after Jobs’ “thermonuclear war” [threats](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/). If you can’t beat the best, why not *offer* the best to your user base while focusing on where you *can* be the best? I mean, there are reasons, of course. The same reasons why Apple eventually replaced Intel chips with their own Silicon and more recently, Qualcomm chips — and yes, Google Maps, way back when. And the risk of being beholden to other technology is very real with AI, as mentioned. But at least for now, [partnering seems like the better path forward](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/). While you watch to see how important owning some part of the AI stack becomes… Again, there are real risks there. And they’re probably more acute than the risks have been with other technologies in the past because AI is moving so fast. My mind also goes to Apple’s mantra of the importance of the marriage between hardware and software. There is a world in which AI sort of replaces the software element of this equation. What if a company, say one [working with](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) your former master of design (and much of his former Apple team), creates a new level of synergy between hardware and software — [in the form of AI](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)? In the more immediate term, Meta is breaking all their piggy banks to come after Apple because they’ve been the one [completely beholden](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) to another company’s platform. [Can smart glasses](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) end the smartphone’s run of dominance? Undoubtedly not. What about AR glasses? I also doubt it. But Meta is going to [try it all](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) and AI certainly gives them more of a shot than they had before. If some other form factor starts working, Meta will do what it does and shamelessly copy the hell out of it. Of course, one man’s “copying” is another man’s “perfecting”. And that has long been [Apple’s general playbook](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/). It’s interesting how these companies almost mirror each other at times, from [AI struggles](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/) on down, no? Anyway, the point is that Apple has a line to walk here, and it’s especially fine. But my read on their recent statements, from the Steve Jobs quote on down, is that they’re going to double down on their strengths at the moment — hardware and design — flexing to remind the world what they do. And that what they do, works. Put another way, after months spent being on defense, I think this signals an Apple going back on offense. And I suspect we’re going to see [a flurry](https://spyglass.org/cellular-macbook-pro/) of [product launches](https://spyglass.org/cellular-macbook-pro/) over the next couple of years to back that up. All the while, AI will continue to shake itself out and shape itself up. And Apple will be there, watching, hopefully learning. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple’s ‘Plateau’ EventSome no-brainer upgrades to AirPods, Apple Watch, and iPhone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-314.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/apple-iphone-17-pro-orange-camera-plateau-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) [Apple Backed Into an AI CornerTim Cook tries to rally the troops. Can he?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-312.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-1-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) [Apple Weighs the Voting MachineWill they do a big AI deal? Should they?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-313.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_with_arms_pulling_the_lever_on_a_slot_ma_80ef1e75-aeae-455d-8164-161acd9fe9e8_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) --- 1 Perhaps [a bit too *V for Vendetta*?](https://clip.cafe/v-vendetta-2005/i-want-country-realize-that-stand-on-the-edge-of-oblivion/?ref=spyglass.org) [↩](#) ### Signal: Meta's $800 Question 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-metas-800-question/ Last updated: 2025-09-18T19:23:49.000Z Are people going to buy $800 smart glasses? When you're getting up to high-end smartphone prices, it's going to be a challenge since, of course, you'll still need to carry a smartphone with them. They're going to have to be overall really good but weirdly, ideally just at a few things, not trying to do it all, to sell a viral use case. [The wristband should be enough](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) to get early adopters to try it, but it's probably going to be the AI that really needs to seal the deal with the broader public. And is Meta's AI up to that task? [Meta Looks to Overcome the ‘Glasshole’ StigmaWith Ray-Ban, they can keep the pressure on in the ‘smart glasses’ space as it shifts back to screens…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-310.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-16-at-9.22.27---AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Tiking Toking... There's [still no](https://spyglass.org/signal-fine-woven-revisited/#:~:text=President%20Trump%2C,you%20can%20get!) firm deal announcement yet, but the details seemingly keep dripping out ever... so... slowly... It really is [like a gameshow](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/)! - **President Trump** said there was the "framework" of a deal in place between "**two private parties**" which seems to suggest there's a lead company (or investor) on the US side as well, as opposed to a consortium? **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/trump-tiktok-china.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - That **consortium** [had included](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/siris-brain-transplant?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=In%20%22about%20two,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen Horowitz. But while Blackstone later [dropped out](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/blackstone-drops-out-consortium-bid-tiktok-us-source-says-2025-07-18/?ref=platformer.news), I'm going to guess that if a16z is still in, **other VCs** will want in too... - Trump is also saying that there remains "**a group of companies**" interested in buying TikTok? But again, presumably that just means being a part of the group that's buying it out? **\[**[**Xitter**](https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1967948230467129632?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Is one of those [companies](https://spyglass.org/might-microsoft-make-another-run-at-tiktok/) [still](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-tiktok-oracle-deal/) **Microsoft**? Is [Xitter/xAI](https://spyglass.org/twittertok/) off the table now with Elon [on the outs](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/a-disillusioned-musk-says-hes-exiting-washington?ref=spyglass.org) with the administration? - **Oracle** is still said to be playing a key role (no surprise since they've been involved from the get-go of this fiasco dating back years). But they're certainly in [a much better position](https://spyglass.org/signal-openais-pbc-race-is-on/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8C%8A%20How%20Larry,%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) of power thanks to their **AI** position these days. Are they now in *the* key role here? **\[**[**CBS News**](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oracle-tiktok-deal-trump-administration-china/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **China** says the US version of TikTok will still be using the Chinese-made **algorithms**, which seems to be some sort of PR power play to showcase that China-made tech can be exported too. **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/550e4680-89e7-4b59-bb5d-2064cd6799c7?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Uh, how exactly will this work with the key aspect of the initial law to begin with: **data security**? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Platformer**](https://www.platformer.news/tiktok-deal-bytedance-china-trump-bessent/?ref=platformer-newsletter) **🔒\]** - Are we still going to get **TikTok 2**, [aka M2](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167799180/tiktok?ref=spyglass.org), the re-built app? - It sounds like the deal still could take another **30 to 45 days to close** – so yeah, technically another extension would be needed but we're way past "technically" mattering at this point... **\[**[**CNBC**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/16/tiktok-bytedance-oracle-china.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Public Company Quarterly Reporting** ****• How People Are Using ChatGPT** ****• How People Are Using Claude** ****• John Malone Keeps Talking** ****• Nintendo Virtual Boy Lives!** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta Looks to Overcome the 'Glasshole' Stigma URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-hypernova-glasses/ Last updated: 2025-11-05T07:14:22.000Z Last week, Apple chose a famous Steve Jobs quote to open [their iPhone event](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/): "*Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.*" That's true. But only because the inverse is also true: Design is not just how it works. *Design is what it looks like and feels like*. And that's what Meta is clearly going to have to focus on at their Meta Connect conference this week. I say "clearly" because it *clearly* looks like at least one of their big announcements has leaked ahead of time. As spotted [by David Heaney of *UploadVR*](https://www.uploadvr.com/meta-ray-ban-display-glasses-design-hud-wristband-clips-leak/?ref=spyglass.org), it appears that Meta's new 'HUD' smart glasses are ready to roll. It's a leak so bad that you almost have to wonder if it was one of those intentional "whoops" quick YouTube upload-then-delist moments to whet the appetite of the unveiling tomorrow. Regardless, the 'Meta Ray-Ban Display' glasses are clearly imminent. Of course, much about these "Hypernova" glasses, which feature a small display in one lens, has already leaked out [via reports over this year](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-21/meta-hardware-plans-oakley-and-ar-like-glasses-apple-watch-and-airpods-rivals?ref=spyglass.org). That includes the inclusion of an "sEMG wristband" that pairs with them to help control the screen, [as I've written about before](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/). Otherwise, one quasi-surprise here may be the branding: > But what is somewhat of a surprise is that it will be Ray-Ban branded. Last year, [The Information reported](https://www.uploadvr.com/meta-hud-glasses-wont-be-ray-bans/?ref=spyglass.org) that the glasses would be released by Meta without EssilorLuxottica, because the Ray-Ban and Oakley owner "balked" at the increased thickness of the glasses arm needed to deliver the display. One way to get your partner to "un-balk" may be to make a massive investment in their company. [Say, $3.5B?](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/strap-in-vision-pro-owners?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=In%20other%20computing,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) And if these are indeed branded as 'Ray-Ban' that will obviously be a huge lift for Meta both because of the previous success with their smart glasses collaboration but also because of the retail footprint EssilorLuxottica brings to the table. While a pair of sunglasses with a camera system may be fairly straightforward, the new screen element is probably something you're going to want to see to believe in – especially if the "glasshole" stigma still lingers in your head from Google's ill-fated early attempt in the space. The partnership also gives Meta a leg-up in an aspect just as important as the technology here: design. I don't think most people would [trust Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/) to design something you wear out and about any more than they'd trust Google.[1](#one) But they'd certainly trust Ray-Ban – and again, the previous partnership has already proven this to be the case. While [Snap may have created](https://500ish.com/lens-flair-dd2c477a1a46?ref=spyglass.org) the first such wearable that wasn't a complete embarrassment to wear, [Meta perfected the form-factor](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/) with Ray-Ban – and most importantly, scaled it. Still, the screen will bring other challenges. Perhaps most notably, battery life. What will *that* look like? And part of that is clearly related to the above concern EssilorLuxottica had about "chonkiness". From this leak, they don't look too big/bad, but we'll have to see some footage in non-staged lighting. Also, the weight. Word has been 70 grams versus 50 for the "regular" Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, which seems reasonable. But *feel* will be important, obviously. Meanwhile, how they *look* internally, as in, to a person wearing them, will obviously be critical too. Some mild concerns from [a *CNBC* report last month](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/meta-hypernova-ar-glasses-wristband.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Although Hypernova will feature a display, those visual features are expected to be limited, people familiar with the matter said. They said the color display will offer about a 20 degree field of view — meaning it will appear in a small window in a fixed position — and will be used primarily to relay simple bits of information, such as incoming text messages. If Meta keeps it simple – *really simple* – this might be fine. But I'm a bit worried by what we're seeing in the leaked video... Beyond that, just the elephant in the room. [As you may have heard](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/), Meta has been having a hell of a time with their AI work. And that will clearly be a key, um, focal point here. [Will](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172290055/metas-race-to-salvage-llama?ref=spyglass.org) [some](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [version](https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/) of [Llama](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) be ready to roll to power Meta AI in these glasses? Or will they bite the bullet and [partner](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171977150/metas-midjourney-partnership?ref=spyglass.org) with [someone else](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=Meta%20keeps%20sending%20money%20to%20partners%20to%20bolster%20their%20AI%20tools%2C%20first%20Midjourney%2C%20now%20Black%20Forest%20Labs%20%28best%20known%20for%20powering%20Grok%27s%2C%20um%2C%20permissive%20AI%20images%29%2C%20with%20a%20%24140M%20deal.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – [perhaps even someone big?](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/metas-ai-leaders-discuss-using-google-openai-models-apps?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – to ensure a great AI experience ([which has long been an issue](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-glasses/)) while they work to re-build their own internal models? Also, such a device may not only be important for AI output, but *input* too, [as I wrote about in June](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/): > Back to consumers, Meta is clearly happy to keep pulling on the Ray-Ban string to see where it leads. [Next up](https://www.ft.com/content/77bd9117-0a2d-4bd7-9248-4dd288f695a4?ref=spyglass.org): some (small) display AR to augment the capture (and audio) AR. And clearly Apple has seen enough to think [they need to go down this path too](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/). And Google [once again](https://spyglass.org/google-glasses-xr/)! Granted they've been burned enough [down this path](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/) in the past to want to partner this time, but still, everyone is lining up for another go at making such wearables happen. And that's presumably because it's not just about AR here, but rather AI. And the fact that such glasses are not just interesting as outputs for the technology, but also inputs, with all the sensors able [to capture information in the real world](https://spyglass.org/shudder-button/) to feed back into the models. Even if these 'Hypernova' glasses [don't end up being](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1960513106704277658?ref=spyglass.org) huge sellers – the [sub-$1,000 price point](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/msn-escape-from-the-bc?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7metas-ar-glasses), at a [rumored $800](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-17/why-doesn-t-the-vision-pro-have-more-immersive-video-apple-is-slow-rolling-it-mefmwpb1?cmpid=BBD081725%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250817&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron), is key, but still expensive unless they're *great* – this launch and continuing partnership will jack up the pressure on Meta's rivals here. [Snap first and foremost](https://spyglass.org/snap-ar-glasses/), of course. [But Google](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/), and [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%93%20Amazon%27s%20AR,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), and [Samsung](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-011/#:~:text=Samsung%20XR%20Glasses,%3F%20%5B9to5Google%5D), and yes, [Apple as well](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/). Meta runs a risk in being first here – especially because of that aforementioned true first-mover in Google Glass, which poisoned this particular well for a decade. But they've given people confidence with the Ray-Ban Metas and everyone knows that Mark Zuckerberg would love nothing more than to [shove this success in the face of Tim Cook](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). We'll *see*! **One more thing:** a point in favor of this *not* being an intentional buzz-building leak might be the fact that Meta also [leaked *another* product](https://www.uploadvr.com/oakley-meta-sphaera-design-leaks-ahead-of-connect-too/?ref=spyglass.org): the 'Oakley Meta Sphaera'. These are the new ([also rumored](https://www.uploadvr.com/oakley-meta-glasses-reportedly-coming-this-year/?ref=spyglass.org)) Oakley smart glasses collaboration that puts the camera system in the center. [Prada soon](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20not%20just,%5BCNBC%5D)? --- **Update September 18, 2025**: Some further thoughts post-keynote... [Meta Reframes Their RealityThey’re trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the ‘Metaverse’…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-317.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/25a4b123-ea73-423e-a2ae-e385fbf09276-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ray-ban-display-smart-glasses-ai/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [A Mere Thought of a Flick of the WristWith an AI assist, Meta nears the productization of CTRL-Labs gesture (and non-gesture) interface wristband![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-305.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-07-24-at-5.53.54---PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) [Google Glasses: Normal EditionYou have to imagine Google wants something out there now, for AI if nothing else![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-306.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_pair_of_sunglasses_by_samsung_and_google_--ar_43_--v__7290f71b-f060-4623-a60f-541542d3b470_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/gemini-glasses/) [Meta Outsmarted Snap in Smart GlassesForget the AR variety (for now), people just want fun glasses they can wear that work…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-308.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-09-25-at-10.07.12-AM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/) [Apple Eyes 2026 for Smart GlassesThey’re clearly hustling to meet Meta, Google, and now OpenAI/Jony Ive in the AI device market. But will their AI be ready?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-304.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/May-22--2025--11_07_00-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/) [Can Meta Make Headsets Happen?Can Apple? Can anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-309.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_VR_headset_worn_in_the_future_--ar_21_--v_7_8fe8289a-5ebe-4d01-bfd8-fc05b090a7f2_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/can-meta-make-vr-ar-headsets-happen/) [Meta’s March to Make the iPhone ‘The Thing That Gets Us to the Thing’The company will build anything and everything to end the smartphone era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-307.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/599220-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) --- 1 Yes, Apple may be the only tech company anyone would truly trust here. Then again, [they created this](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/). Including [the creepy eye screen thing](https://spyglass.org/vision-profoundly-uncool/) that they really thought would help people [wear it around](https://spyglass.org/vision-bro-ban/). Yikes. [↩](#) ### Signal: Fine, Woven Revisited 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-fine-woven-revisited/ Last updated: 2025-09-15T13:10:07.000Z As it turns out, people have a lot of strong opinions about materials – especially when it's materials used in iPhone cases. After now *over a million views* across [Xitter](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1966843676824621326?ref=spyglass.org), [Threads](https://www.threads.com/@mgsiegler/post/DOivDIUiFB-?ref=spyglass.org), [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lypsa7h2z22j?ref=spyglass.org), [etc](https://me.dm/deck/@mgs/115197036707026104?ref=spyglass.org), and hundreds of responses, I think I can safely confirm that people really, *really* did not like Apple's 'FineWoven' cases. And as bad as they were to start – [and they were bad](https://500ish.com/fine-woven-95c0bbb975fc?ref=spyglass.org), it's the only Apple product I can recall returning right after I opened – they were actually [far worse with age](https://spyglass.org/browning-like-a-rotten-banana/). 'TechWoven' beyond being [a silly name](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172290055/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org), at least *look* a lot better to start. We'll see how it ages... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/G0uh4RxXcAA_jJG-1.jpg) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### A Few Takes... **📲** [**iPhone Air: Will It Bend?**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/11/iphone-air-durability-interview/?ref=spyglass.org) – Greg Joswiak casually tossing the iPhone Air [to Lance Ulanoff](https://www.techradar.com/phones/iphone/i-tried-and-failed-to-break-greg-joswiaks-iphone-air-and-i-think-hes-ok-with-that?ref=spyglass.org) (who perfectly fails to catch it – a nice showcase that it wasn't a staged bit) and telling him [and Mark Spoonauer](https://www.tomsguide.com/phones/iphones/iphone-17-interview-greg-joswiak-john-ternus?ref=spyglass.org) to try to bend it was fun and gets the headlines. But actually, [the entire discussion](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwmqgI8MYY4&ref=spyglass.org) with Joz and John Ternus – [including the second part](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKoUUarBflw&ref=spyglass.org) – is well worth the watch. While Joz is fast with the quips – and he's quite good at them here! – Ternus has a clear, quiet command over the products. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it almost felt like this was a touring party for Ternus to take on even more of [an outward-facing role](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/)... And while Joz has been perhaps [a bit of a chaperone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDiZ8GZEq-E&ref=spyglass.org) in some of these, Ternus had a [number](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR2gDFTVxUA&list=WL&index=72&ref=spyglass.org) of [spots](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqxvVl%5FIpvA&list=WL&index=73&ref=spyglass.org) across a range of places... Anyway, just a note that he comes across in these as sincere and [in command](https://500ish.com/in-command-a511a9a83d98?ref=spyglass.org) of the product details albeit while not quite as polished and at ease as Joz, but that's to be expected as it comes with experience... (And yes, they answer [the "plateau" question](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/).) **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/11/iphone-air-durability-interview/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **🗣️** [**OpenAI's $350B Problem**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – Good overview of the needle OpenAI is trying to thread between their rapid growth and rapid rise in costs. Everyone brings up the examples of companies that were burning massive amounts of money to eventually get to profitability, with [many always skeptical](https://500ish.com/whopping-79114ac5d294?ref=spyglass.org) that will ever happen – with Amazon being the key example of success always cited. But if Uber – [another successful example](https://spyglass.org/uber-schadenfreude/) – was that game plan on steroids, this is that steroidal game plan on... *all the steroids in the world*. And a lot of it is driven by OpenAI's [shift away from Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/), and eventually, all cloud/compute partners to try to [own the whole stack themselves](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), so as not to get [stuck in](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20%22Startup%20Energy,%5BTechCrunch%5D) the "Snap Trap" (constant margin issues due to third-party cloud costs). If they pull it off, they're worth trillions. If they don't... But first, they have to go public to be able to fully access all the capital (via different instruments) they'll need to try to pull this off, and that's still no slam dunk given [the structural issues](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/). And if/when they get public, they're going to need the market to hold up when it comes to buying the AI dream... Quite a few needles to thread here... **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** **👹** [**'Demon Slayer' Slays Box Office**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/demon-slayer-infinity-castle-record-box-office-opening-1236370035/?ref=spyglass.org) – Demons, so hot right now. Following *KPop Demon Hunters* [massive one-weekend-only haul](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/), another animated film, *Demon Slayer Infinity Castle*, just opened at number one. That itself wouldn't be a huge shock in a relatively slow weekend – **except that it earned $70M**. I repeat, an anime movie earned $70M at the box office in its opening weekend – *in the United States (and Canada)*. Yes, it is and was huge in Japan, but this feels like some sort of [breakthrough moment](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/14/business/anime-demon-slayer-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org) – its opening day nearly topped the entire weekend estimates. I won't pretend to understand this enough to speak to what it will point to other than you can be sure more animated (*KPop* wasn't technically anime) movies focused on killing demons are going to be on order at every studio – not just Sony, which has [another massive win here](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) (alongside their Crunchyroll streaming service – the movie cost just $20M to make). **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/demon-slayer-infinity-castle-record-box-office-opening-1236370035/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Publishers Suing Google Over AI** ****• Gemini Tops App Store Charts** ****• Emmy Winners & Losers** ****• The Tik Keeps Toking...** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: OpenAI's PBC Race Is On 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-openais-pbc-race-is-on/ Last updated: 2025-09-12T15:08:05.000Z While Microsoft and OpenAI will only give you 49 words to update their ([beyond complicated](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/)) situation, I give you nearly 3,000 in an attempt to translate why they're even bothering to publish those 49 words in a joint statement on *both* corporate blogs, no less. Again, it's complicated. But the high-level may be decidedly straightforward: the race is officially on to convert OpenAI into a PBC. [OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, TentativelyAn important step – but one of many – as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversion…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-297.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Also Wrote... I was right in what I wrote about Paramount's strategy – I just didn't think it would take over a year to close the deal and start executing upon it... [Paramount Skydance’s Blockbuster Bid for Warner Bros DiscoveryOne good idea, so many names…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-296.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/wbmount2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/) --- ### Others Wrote... ##### **📰** [**Techmeme at 20**](https://crazystupidtech.com/2025/09/08/at-20-techmeme-has-never-been-hotter/?ref=spyglass.org) Fred Vogelstein looks back at [the news aggregator of choice](https://www.techmeme.com/?ref=spyglass.org) for so many of us, for so long. He also talks to Gabe Rivera about the state of the business and why the site looks almost exactly as it did in 2005\. Gabe is a good friend of mine but wasn't in the site's early days when I would pester him over email about why my obviously excellent blog posts weren't on Techmeme. He nicely responded to those emails, though not in the nicest way, essentially noting that my posts added nothing to the topic. Which I didn't appreciate at the time, but now I do. [Mediagazer](https://mediagazer.com/?ref=spyglass.org), a sister site, launched later, remains great on [days like this](https://mediagazer.com/250911/p14?ref=spyglass.org#a250911p14) too. Happy 20th Techmeme, next year, drinks on me. 🍻🎂 **\[**[**Crazy Stupid Tech**](https://crazystupidtech.com/2025/09/08/at-20-techmeme-has-never-been-hotter/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "An iPhone for the Ozempic era." – **Sam Schube**, [describing](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-iphone-air-tim-cook-design-thin-case-b67d5d8b?ref=spyglass.org) the iPhone Air, in his piece for *The Wall Street Journal*. His sit down with several Apple executives including Tim Cook, is unsurprisingly fluffy. But it's also another data point that I brought up [in my own piece on the unveiling](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/): that Apple is explicitly trying to lean back into the design narrative that has long differentiated them. This is mainly about the fashion aspect of the device ([and the new crossbody straps](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=%F0%9F%97%A3%EF%B8%8F%20Apple%27s%20iPhone,%5BVerge%5D)) but also the internal debate people might be having [for the first time in a while](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/) when it comes to picking an iPhone model: Air or Pro? Cook, [of course](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/), says he won't choose and will use both. 🙄 --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Larry Ellison Riding the AI Wave** ****• A Protocol for AI Data Licensing** ****• No AirPods Translation in the EU** ****• MountDance WarBroDisco** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, Tentatively URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-agree-to-agree-tentatively/ Last updated: 2025-10-26T19:37:10.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_41_12-AM-2.png) It seems like OpenAI has solved [their Microsoft problem](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). Well, [maybe](https://www.techmeme.com/250911/p24?ref=spyglass.org#a250911p24). Tentatively, [at least](https://www.axios.com/2025/09/11/open-ai-microsoft-agreement-deal?ref=spyglass.org). Pending some pesky details. Details they'd rather not talk about right now, while still [letting us all know](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1966258361621688608?ref=spyglass.org) they're on the same page via a 49-word statement published [to both](https://openai.com/index/joint-statement-from-openai-and-microsoft/?ref=spyglass.org) of [their corporate blogs](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/09/11/a-joint-statement-from-microsoft-and-openai/?ref=spyglass.org) at the same time. The statement is so short that the images in each overshadows the text.[1](#one) The joint statement, in full: > OpenAI and Microsoft have signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the next phase of our partnership. We are actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement. Together, we remain focused on delivering the best AI tools for everyone, grounded in our shared commitment to safety. It's settled then. Of course, it's not actually or it would be *finalized*. But there's clearly some reason they'd like us to know they're working on it! Experience and common sense suggests that they're trying to get ahead of something. And, in fact, there are a lot of tangential stories floating around out there that could explain the announcement. The biggest one is probably the two key states involved in the matter of OpenAI shifting to a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), Delaware (where OpenAI is incorporated) and California (where OpenAI resides), [are clearly not happy](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20the%20tragedies%20being%20linked%20to%20chatbots%2C%20the%20AGs%20of%20California%20and%20Delaware%2C%20who%20hold%20the%20PBC%20fate%20of%20OpenAI%20in%20their%20hands%2C%20make%20it%20pretty%20clear%20that%20these%20situations%20may%20be%20altering%20their%20thinking...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) about the recent news around the company being tied to recent tragedies, as ChatGPT, at best, didn't help vulnerable users who seemed to be in bad mental states of mind before taking their own lives and in one case, the lives of others. This narrative has been simmering for some time and now it's boiling over, with the state AGs [specifically suggesting](https://www.ft.com/content/f4be38b3-2de9-4b81-bc47-24119c2d5aef?ref=spyglass.org) the move away from non-profit status may not be the right decision. This is a big enough problem that [there are now whispers](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=Is%20OpenAI%20considering%20moving%20out%20of%20California%20to%20ease%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20PBC%3F%20They%20deny%20it%2C%20but%20certainly%20their%20lawyers%20have%20to%20have%20at%20least%20discussed%20it%3F%20Especially%20with%20the%20concerns%20mounting...%20%5BWSJ%5D) of the company debating [shifting their domicile](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-for-profit-conversion-opposition-07ea7e25?ref=spyglass.org) elsewhere (which OpenAI has denied). And mixed with their main benefactor Microsoft also [apparently blocking](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) the transition – not to mention their original backer and co-founder, Elon Musk, trying to constantly [throw wrenches into the process](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/) and you have... well, a shitshow. Alleviating the Microsoft portion of this situation is an important step, but not the only one here. But it should help the company continue to make the case for the PBC transition, which they had hoped would happen this year, but reportedly was pushed into next year because of the impasse with Microsoft. Again, that impasse is now being cleared – well, they're working on it. To me, that suggests OpenAI is very much trying to make this happen this year still. And yes, contractually they're incentivized to do this because as has been widely reported, OpenAI's [new big benefactor, SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/), had the right not to fund the remainder of their portion of [the $40B fundraise](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) if the company didn't transition by the end of the year. Now there's almost no way SoftBank was going to back out of that agreement regardless – I mean, [they're buying up secondary shares](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/openai-boosts-size-of-secondary-share-sale-to-10point3-billion.html?ref=spyglass.org) right now at $500B, which is significantly higher than the shares they're buying in the primary transaction. [They'd be crazy](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172087334/an-update-on-the-openaimicrosoft-talks?ref=spyglass.org) not to take the automatic markup of their money which they can still invest at $300B! But we're too in the weeds now. The key is that solving this Microsoft situation was perhaps the main element in trying to get a transition done any time soon. And even without the SoftBank deal pressure, the pressure from those states is now far more acute. One imagines that OpenAI wants to get this done quickly before they're sucked into endless political hearings about AI's role in the mental health crisis – which is *clearly* about to happen. If that's true, one has to wonder what OpenAI conceded to Microsoft here to get them on board, fast. Again, they're not saying because they're still negotiating, but clearly a big part of it is "The Clause". That is, the stipulation in the original contract that Microsoft would lose access to OpenAI's technology if the company achieved AGI. It's decidedly more complicated than that, including in the *who* gets to decide what constitutes "AGI" (namely OpenAI's board, which is now a totally different board, composed of people will completely different backgrounds, than the one that was supposed to be determining it), and if Microsoft retained access to "older" AI technology, but the high-level was clearly a problem for Microsoft. And it keeps coming up because Sam Altman on down has kept hinting that the company may be close to achieving "AGI". It was clearly pissing off Satya Nadella, who made that more or less known, and so [talk suddenly shifted to "superintelligence"](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/), which is [totally different, you see](https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/). At the same time, a lesser known part of "The Clause" apparently also blocked Microsoft itself from going after AGI. This undoubtedly didn't matter to the company at the time of the agreement, but since then – well, things have changed. Including "the blip" – the brief moment in time when Altman was ousted from OpenAI, only to be quickly reinstated with the help of Nadella – which torpedoed the trust between the two sides and led to Microsoft inventing the "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" process (born out of the way they almost hired all of OpenAI during said blip) [to take on Inflection AI talent](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) and [bring DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman on board](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) to lead [new AI efforts internal to Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/). Over the past many months, all we've heard is how there was nothing to see to all of this. [But of course there was](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/). Including the notion that Microsoft was building their own smaller models because they were deferring to OpenAI for the "frontier" models. Yes, they were doing that because *they couldn't build models going after AGI*, per "The Clause". But some news this week may be hinting of a big change there – here's [Tom Warren reporting for *The Verge*](https://www.theverge.com/report/776853/microsoft-ai-training-capacity-investments-in-house-models?ref=spyglass.org): > Microsoft AI launched its first in-house models last month, adding to the already complicated relationship with its OpenAI partner. Now, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman says the company is making “significant investments” in the compute capacity required to Microsoft’s own future frontier models. > > “We should have the capacity to build world class frontier models in house of all sizes, but we should be very pragmatic and use other models where we need to,” said Suleyman during Microsoft’s employee-only town hall on Thursday. “We’re also going to be making significant investments in our own cluster, so today MAI-1-preview was only trained on 15,000 H100s, a tiny cluster in the grand scheme of things.” Interesting. He continues: > Suleyman hinted that Microsoft has ambitions to train models that are comparable to Meta, Google, and xAI’s efforts on clusters that are “six to ten times larger in size” than what Microsoft used for its MAI-1-preview. “Much more to do, but it’s good to take the first steps,” said Suleyman. > > Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said at the same town hall that he’s “looking forward to us building model capability, so that we can build model-forward products.” Nadella also made it clear that Microsoft will “definitely support multiple models” in its products, and highlighted GitHub Copilot as “the best example” of that strategy. Yeah, so this news is trickling out of Microsoft's internal meetings. Meanwhile, so is the news that Microsoft may start using Anthropic's models to power Copilot, as [Aaron Holmes also scooped this week for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-buy-ai-anthropic-shift-openai?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). *I mean, what?!* Microsoft has done [a few moves to hedge their bets](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-hedge-against-openai/) – including, of course the aforementioned Inflection deal – but this is *OpenAI's main competitor replacing them in Microsoft's core AI product*. Uhh... So yeah, what's going on here? Well, in the reporting around the 49-word joint statement, we have this tidbit [from Karen Weise and Cade Metz for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/technology/openai-microsoft-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org): > As part of their new deal, Microsoft and OpenAI have renegotiated the financial terms of a commercial agreement they signed in 2019\. The deal includes how the two companies share technology and how they share revenue from those technologies. > > The original agreement also included a clause that rescinded Microsoft’s access to OpenAI’s most powerful technology when the OpenAI board formally decided that the technology had achieved “artificial general intelligence,” or A.G.I., shorthand for a machine that matches the power of the human brain. > > This clause remains part of the new agreement but has been modified, according to a person familiar with the agreement who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it. "The Clause" "remains" but, it's *modified*. And my guess would be that it's modified such that Microsoft is also now free to pursue AGI and/or superintelligence, and anything else they wish to call it. I'm also guessing they'll also retain some form of access to OpenAI's technologies beyond 2030 – the other aspect of the contract Microsoft had reportedly wanted to change. Again, Microsoft seemingly holds the cards here with the sign-off sword in hand and with all the other issues swirling around OpenAI... At the same time, another big hold up in any agreement between OpenAI and Microsoft was said to be [the future equity stake in the event of a conversion](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/). Because of the non-profit status, Microsoft, alongside all other investors just technically hold rights to future profits at the moment. Those will convert to *actual* equity with the PBC switch, but it wasn't tenable for Microsoft to hold the same 49% they hold in those profit rights (and it's actually more than that as it starts higher, [closer to 75% to start](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-eases-away-from-microsoft-data-centers?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) up until a certain amount). And Microsoft probably doesn't even want such a stake, optically. Regulators might note that say, 49% is a mere percent or two below majority control. The second biggest company in the world suddenly *controlling* the largest AI company? Yeah, not the best optics there. My guess [has long been](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/) that they would net out around a 33% stake in OpenAI. And [subsequent reporting](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-seeks-new-financial-concessions-microsoft-top-shareholder?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) seemingly backed this up. There's no word on that stake here yet, but tangential to that, there is word on the stake the non-profit would hold going forward. In fact, it comes in the form of another post on the corporate blog. [This one, by Chairman of the Board Bret Taylor](https://openai.com/index/statement-on-openai-nonprofit-and-pbc/?ref=spyglass.org), is a whole 324 words. The key words: > [As previously announced](https://openai.com/index/evolving-our-structure/?ref=spyglass.org) and as outlined in [our non-binding MOU with Microsoft](https://openai.com/index/joint-statement-from-openai-and-microsoft/?ref=spyglass.org), the OpenAI nonprofit’s ongoing control would now be paired with an equity stake in the PBC. Today, we are sharing that this new equity stake would exceed $100 billion—making it one of the most well-resourced philanthropic organizations in the world. This recapitalization would also enable us to raise the capital required to accomplish our mission—and ensure that as OpenAI’s PBC grows, so will the nonprofit’s resources, allowing us to bring it to historic levels of community impact. Yes, he puts an actual value – well, a rough value – on the stake. Why? Because it sounds good, of course. Holy shit, $100B? For a non-profit? This has been OpenAI's comms approach to the conversion since they had to move away from a full-on for-profit shift [to the PBC move a few months back](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) (amidst a lot of pressure making it clear that wouldn't happen without meaningful protection of the remaining non-profit). Not only will the non-profit remain, and remain in control, it will be the best capitalized non-profit ever, the story goes. And it's probably not wrong! But it's also clearly PR meant to sway those states holding the keys to the conversion kingdom: > This structure reaffirms that our core mission remains ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity. Our PBC charter and governance will establish that safety decisions must always be guided by this mission. We continue to work with the California and Delaware Attorneys General as an important part of strengthening our approach, and we remain committed to learning and acting with urgency to ensure our tools are helpful and safe for everyone, while advancing safety as an industry-wide priority. And look, a $50M cherry on top too! > As part of this next phase, the OpenAI nonprofit has launched a call for applications for the first wave of [a $50 million grant initiative](https://openai.com/index/people-first-ai-fund/?ref=spyglass.org) to support nonprofit and community organizations in three areas: AI literacy and public understanding, community innovation, and economic opportunity. This is just the beginning. Our recapitalization would unlock the ability to do much more. This blog post is also interesting because it reinforces my thought that OpenAI is going to try to execute this transition *fast*. Like imminently, perhaps. Which again, is why you give the non-statement statement on the Microsoft situation. Back to the equity piece. Weise and Metz were also able to glean a bit more here: > The nonprofit that now manages OpenAI would become “one of the most well-resourced philanthropic organizations in the world,” Bret Taylor, OpenAI’s board chair, [said](https://openai.com/index/statement-on-openai-nonprofit-and-pbc/?ref=spyglass.org) in a blog post. The nonprofit’s stake will exceed 20 percent of the reorganized company, according to the person familiar with the deal. A stake that would "exceed 20 percent" is also in line with [my guesstimate a year ago](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/) that the non-profit would get 25% of the equity. So far, so good. One element that wasn't yet a part of OpenAI's cap table equation back then [was SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/). And given that they've now shot past the $13B or so that Microsoft has put into OpenAI over the years, clearly their stake is going to be sizable as well upon conversion. [One recent report](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-starts-look-like-masas-savior?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) pegs the target [at 12%](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/). So Microsoft at 33%, the non-profit at 25%, and SoftBank at 12% [nicely adds up to 70%](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1966264243713663427?ref=spyglass.org). But there are many other stakeholders around the table to convert here, most notably Khosla Ventures and the other original investors alongside Microsoft. And then Thrive Capital, who has led a few of the later rounds. And many, many others. And none of that includes equity for Altman, who famously holds none at the moment. That has always been presumed to change with a conversion, but it can't be a massive percentage as we're running out of room, fast. Oh yes, and what about that co-founder who put up the money to start the whole thing? He remains another big wrinkle here because he's undoubtedly going to argue that his grants to a non-profit should be considered investments for equity if OpenAI is allowed to convert (which he'd still prefer not happen as it makes life easier for his new AI startup competing with OpenAI, xAI). That is a total wildcard here. Imagine if a judge says OpenAI has to give Musk an equity slug... Regardless, he's seemingly about to get very vocal as OpenAI is clearly accelerating towards the PBC conversion... Point is, there's a lot going on at the moment and a lot more likely to go on from here. Things which a 49-word statement can't convey. But I can – in 2,500 words. **One more thing:** Perhaps a bit less pressing given their current $40B fundraise, but at some point soon-ish, OpenAI does likely need to go public. [Because the amount of money they're now projecting to burn is so astronomical](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/), the only way to access it may be through the public markets and tangential instruments (especially given the equity dilution situation mentioned above). And the only path to go public is to move on from their non-profit status... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-12--2025--10_42_50-AM.png) --- **Update**: [Sri Muppidi, Aaron Holmes, and Stephanie Palazzolo have a few more details](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-gain-50-billion-cutting-revenue-share-microsoft-partners?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) about the potential new agreemenent for *The Information*, notably that OpenAI may be able to cut the percentage of revenue going to Microsoft in 2030 to perhaps around 8%, down from 20% in the current contract. This is important as it will allow OpenAI to keep a lot more of the revenue it generates, of course. They also note that" "OpenAI’s nonprofit and Microsoft will each get around one-third of the new company"... --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-290.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) [OpenAI and Microsoft Risk Open WarForget biting hands and back-stabbing, this fight keeps escalating…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-292.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-16--2025--10_47_25-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) [Microsoft’s OpenAI Equity Jigsaw PuzzleWith the non-profit maintaining a controlling stake and an FMV floor set by Elon Musk, OpenAI still has a hell of a challenge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-293.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2025--09_28_55-AM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) [OpenAI Attempts to Have Their For-Profit Cake and Eat It TooOpenAI leaves the for-profit path, maybe, with a trail of questions…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-294.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_cake_baked_with_money_realistic_looking_with_a_slick__40636e6b-83b4-4633-83e7-2f5c44475e8c_1-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) [Microsoft & OpenAI: A Love/Hate StoryThe ongoing epic tale that has shaped the current state of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-295.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_microsoft_and_openAI_bots_battling_--v_7_a8f62b24-f9c2-48d1-abf7-315326ac4a05_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) --- 1 Come on, this is a blogging 101 no-no. [↩](#) ### Paramount Skydance's Blockbuster Bid for Warner Bros Discovery URL: https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydances-blockbuster-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery/ Last updated: 2025-10-26T19:36:47.000Z In July of 2024, just after Skydance's bid to acquire Paramount was *finally* made official, [I laid out some plans](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) for what the newly merged company should do once the deal closes to best compete. And then the deal took over a year to actually close. Still, the ideas were pretty good, apparently. Because one of them is now on the verge of happening. And it's a big one. As [I wrote incidentally *exactly* 14 months ago](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/): > There's been a lot of talk amidst the Paramount dealings that [WBD might be a good home/partner](https://spyglass.org/checkers-chess-and-paramount/). What if, once the Skydance/Paramount deal is closed, \*they actually buy WBD\*? Yes, there are debt issues, but a year from now, hopefully WBD head David Zaslav will have a better answer and path there. Ellison has spoken a few times about Paramount+ in particular. Most assume they'll either spin it off or merge it with another player, like WBD's Max or Comcast's Peacock. And perhaps they will. But again, I'm not sure they shouldn't just buy all of WBD to bulk up into one of the major players themselves. Well, [here's Jessica Toonkel reporting for *The Wall Street Journal* today](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-skydance-prepares-ellison-backed-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery-0b921c20?ref=spyglass.org): > Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery that is backed by the Ellison family, according to people familiar with the situation. > > The bid will be for the entire company, including its cable networks and movie studio, the people said. Warner said late last year it planned [to restructure into two operating divisions](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/warner-discovery-to-restructure-setting-up-potential-strategic-opportunities-37fabf0f?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org), one focused on [the legacy cable-television business](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/can-mtv-be-cool-again-paramounts-new-owner-plots-cable-revival-5351e3cf?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) and the other on streaming and studios. [Ooooh, that's a bingo.](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wJSZqSfloEE?ref=spyglass.org) In fact, it's such a bingo that it may sound obvious now. But back then, it was anything but obvious – not only because Skydance was having a hell of a time [getting to a deal](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-part-ii/) with Paramount, but as alluded to up above, there was [a lot of talk](https://spyglass.org/checkers-chess-and-paramount/) that WBD might be the more obvious buyer of Paramount because they were the much larger entity. And, in fact, *they remain the much larger entity*, which remains a main complication of such a deal, as Toonkel notes: > Such a deal would be a big swing. Warner Bros.’s nearly $33 billion market capitalization is more than double that of Paramount Skydance. A bid hasn’t yet been submitted and the plans could still fall apart. And it's not just the fact that WBD is double the size of Paramount Skydance, it's also the mountain of debt WBD is carrying, as I noted back then. And yes, WBD chief David Zaslav has been able to clean it up a bit, but the main purge was set to occur when the company [split in two next year](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/warner-bros-discovery-splits-in-two?ref=spyglass.org) – which wouldn't happen under this new offer. In backing up the reporting, [Brooks Barnes, Lauren Hirsch, and Benjamin Mullin note for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/business/media/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-bid.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Mr. Ellison is interested in acquiring the entire company, in line with his strategy of doubling down on both streaming and traditional TV, according to the people with knowledge of the plans. The bid would be made mostly in cash. > > A deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery would be costly. The company is worth $41 billion and has $35 billion in debt, remnants of the merger that brought it to life. But the Ellison family has the means: Larry Ellison, David Ellison’s father, is the co-founder of Oracle and one of the richest men in the world, with an estimated net worth of $383 billion, according to Bloomberg. Just yesterday, the elder Ellison [actually became](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20the,%5BCNBC%5D) *the richest* man in the world thanks to a surge in Oracle shares after their earnings report. So yeah, they have the cash to do this. But it's still going to be insanely expensive. And undoubtedly time-consuming, given the slog the first deal went through. But it also makes some sense from a pure bulking-up into a major player, perspective. Which is exactly why I suggested they might do it. As for why *now*, back to Toonkel: > By preparing a play for the company before Warner’s planned split, Paramount Skydance is attempting to pre-empt a potential bidding war for the studio and streaming unit that could include deep-pocketed technology companies such as Amazon and Apple. A week after I wrote about Paramount Skydance buying WBD, I was off to spend someone else's money – an old favorite, Tim Cook's. While my title made the case [that Apple should by HBO](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/), the post made the case for Apple beating Skydance Paramount to the punch and buying *all of WBD*. While it would obviously be a headache for Apple – and Apple obviously doesn't like headaches, [in particular around M&A](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) – there's also [a number of reasons why such a deal could make sense](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/), starting at the highest level that Apple wants content and WBD has content. Some of the best content. Yes, Apple could use it to boost Apple TV+, but such IP could work in all sorts of ways for Apple. All in the name of boosting [the all-important Services business](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/). Anyway, for now, it looks like the Skydance Paramount + WBD dance begins. But no one should hold their breath too tightly because [we've seen this movie before](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount/). It ultimately ended well, but it was a horror story [for a while there](https://spyglass.org/paramount-chomps-skydance/). **One more thing:** I still like the more recent idea I had to spend Skydance Paramount's money, even with this deal: [buying IMAX](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/). **Fine, two more things:** the [branding possibilities](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydance-logo/) are endless here. Paramount Skydance Warner Bros Discovery? PSWBD? ParSkyWarBroDis? MountDance WarBroDisco? Winner. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/unnamed-2-2.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [How to Scale ParamountCan Skydance finally, actually bridge Silicon Valley and Hollywood?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-285.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_man_scaling_the_paramount_logo_18900cfa-a6b8-4cb4-afc3-d37bbd2ac4c2_1-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) [Skydance Kicks the Tires and Lights the Fires -- AgainWill Paramount be sold this time? And/or will other partners emerge?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-286.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Famous-Top-Gun.webp)](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-part-ii/) [I Decree: Paramount Should Buy IMAXA new idea for a new company looking to double-down on theatrical…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-287.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/21b33354-217f-451f-bbc5-5fb54a55cd2e-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/) ### Signal: A Cosmic Orange 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-a-cosmic-orange/ Last updated: 2025-09-12T06:35:53.000Z Since tomorrow's newsletter will go out after pre-order time and quite a few folks have pinged me apparently not having read all the way to the bottom of [my 2,000-word post on the matter](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) (😜), I'll just reiterate my intent is to buy the iPhone 17 Pro Max. Yes, in 'Cosmic Orange' which could get old fast but because fun. And yes, I'm tempted by the iPhone Air, but ultimately, the camera and battery life matter far too much to me to "trade down". Apple did a nice job making it more compelling than I originally thought though! ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... It seems to me that the *KPop Demon Hunters* [phenomenon](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) may have given Sony – [and perhaps Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) – an interesting opportunity to experiment more with some models for the movie business... [Sony’s ‘KPop’ GiftIt shows them a path forward for a new flexible distribution deal…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-282.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-03-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/) --- ### Take One... **🗣️** [**Apple's iPhone Strap**](https://www.theverge.com/report/775498/apple-iphone-crossbody-strap-magnetic-reaction?ref=spyglass.org) – As all of [my](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) "[European Carry-All](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-cOc6s9h8&ref=spyglass.org)" [jokes](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=It%27s%20not%20a%20new%20iPhone%20magnetic%20purse%20strap%2C%20it%27s%20a%20European%20Carry%2DAll!%20%28In%20all%20seriousness%2C%20will%20this%20help%20with%20phone%20thefts%3F%29%20%5BMacRumors%5D) may have indicated, I haven't been sure what to make of [Apple's crossbody iPhone strap](https://www.apple.com/shop/product/MGGH4LL/A/crossbody-strap-light-blue?ref=spyglass.org). But actually, Jess Weatherbed makes a lot of good points here about the potential usefulness – in particular with Apple's easy-to-adjust magnetic innovations. And not just for women either. Might Apple mainstream such an accessory (in Western markets) just as they've done with so many other things that seem sort of ridiculous to many at first (see: AirPods)? As a recent victim of a [phone-snatched-out-of-hand theft](https://spyglass.org/an-iphone-stolen/), I think I'm sold to at least try it. Now to pick a color... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/report/775498/apple-iphone-crossbody-strap-magnetic-reaction?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### A Few Notes... - **Vimeo** ends not with a bang, but a whimper as it **sells** to Bending Spoons for **$1.38B**. Which sounds big until you read that [*it had lost about 90% of its value*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/bending-spoons-to-buy-vimeo-in-1-38-billion-all-cash-deal?ref=spyglass.org) since spinning out of IAC. YouTube is probably worth what? [$300B? More?](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/) **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/10/vimeo-to-be-acquired-by-bending-spoons-in-1-38b-all-cash-deal/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Meta** keeps sending money to partners to bolster their AI tools, [first Midjourney](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171977150/metas-midjourney-partnership?ref=spyglass.org), now **Black Forest Labs** (best known for powering Grok's, um, [permissive AI images](https://spyglass.org/x-ai-images/)), with a $140M deal. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/meta-to-pay-140-million-to-use-black-forest-labs-ai-for-images?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - With [competition](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20OpenAI%27s%20Custom,%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) [mounting](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Google%20TPUs,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), **NVIDIA** moves to make a more dedicated **inference** chip – the '**Rubin CPX**' will come at the [end of 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/nvidia-unveils-new-chip-system-for-ai-video-software-creation?ref=spyglass.org). **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/nvidia-unveils-first-chip-ai-inference?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - Speaking of, while **NVIDIA** has clearly had [some success](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) playing the politics game of late, the weaponization of "**AI doomerism**" may backfire because it's so obviously intentionally conflating two very different issues... **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/technology/nvidia-china-chip-sales-ai-doomerism.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "Applicants send out thousands of AI-crafted résumés, and businesses use AI to sift through them." – **Annie Lowrey**, [describing](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/09/job-market-hell/684133/?ref=spyglass.org) the current state of the job market for *The Atlantic*. She continues, "What Bumble and Hinge did to the dating market, contemporary human-resources practices have done to the job market. People are swiping like crazy and getting nothing back." --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Amazon's AR Glasses** ****• Meta's New AI Unit Sparks Tensions** ****• The Rise of Small Language Models** ****• Crypto Holding Firms Struggle** ****• 'Good Will Hunting' with Guns** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Signal: Apple Event Hidden Gems (and Coal) 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-apple-event-hidden-gems-and-coal/ Last updated: 2025-09-12T06:37:10.000Z A special edition of [*Spyglass Signal*](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) today, as I furiously try to catch up on every little nook and cranny of Apple news hidden in yesterday's iPhone event. And, of course, I wrote 2,000-ish words covering my own high-level thoughts about the event, the announcements, the products, and the state of the company below... [Apple’s ‘Plateau’ EventSome no-brainer upgrades to AirPods, Apple Watch, and iPhone…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-275.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/apple-iphone-17-pro-orange-camera-plateau.webp)](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/) Back to your regularly scheduled programming tomorrow... ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Apple Notes... - [At last](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-012/#:~:text=%F0%9F%94%8B%20Apple%E2%80%99s%20MagSafe,it.%20%5B9to5Mac%5D), a new **MagSafe battery pack** made [by Apple](https://spyglass.org/a-hypothetical-apple-beats-magsafe-power-pack/)! Oh wait, it only works with the iPhone Air apparently. Why? The camera "[plateau](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/)" (the artist formerly known as "camera bump") on the other devices is too large. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/774515/apples-new-magsafe-battery-is-only-designed-for-the-new-iphone-air?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The battery pack is **slimmer** than the old version (which Apple no longer makes), but it's thicker than... the iPhone Air itself. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/apple-event/775048/iphone-air-magsafe-battery-pack-hands-on-photos?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Will you *need* the battery pack for the **iPhone Air**? While the stated **battery life** is certainly less than the other new models (though still "all day"), specs claim that the Air's battery should last just about as long as last year's iPhone 16 Pro, which is wild if true. Thanks, new Apple wireless chips? **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/09/iphone-air-battery-life-numbers/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The **$99** MagSafe battery pack will take the iPhone Air from 27 hours (when watching videos) to **40 hours**. Which is [one hour longer](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1965476354423685124?ref=spyglass.org) than the iPhone 17 Pro... **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/iphone-air-battery-pack/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The **iPhone 17** models (so, not the 'Air' which is technically not a '17') feature **faster charging** than previous models – up to 50% in 20 minutes with the right kind of power adapter. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/iphone-17-models-faster-usb-c-charging/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - All the models (including the Air) can also now support **capture** from the **front and back cameras** *at the same time*. Time for [a Frontback comeback](https://www.theverge.com/2013/7/22/4544982/frontback-app-for-iphone?ref=spyglass.org)? **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/10/iphone-17-video-dual-cam-recording/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - With **the new iPhone models**, Apple is also [touting](https://security.apple.com/blog/memory-integrity-enforcement/?ref=spyglass.org) major **security enhancements** in the form of **Memory Integrity Enforcement** (MIE), which, honestly, is hopefully as hard to penetrate as it is to parse. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/775234/iphone-17-air-a19-memory-integrity-enforcement-mte-security?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - [Sure](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/) [enough](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/), while Apple isn't explicitly saying it, the iPhone models with the **A19 Pro chip** (including the 'Air') have **12GB of RAM** – up from 8GB last generation, where the iPhone 17 remains. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/iphone-17-pro-iphone-air-ram-amounts/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The **iPhone 17 Pro graphics** may be **faster** than those found on the **M2**, which still powers many, many MacBooks, of course. Wow. **\[**[**Xitter**](https://x.com/VadimYuryev/status/1965678664621924387?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - While the iPhone Air weighs less than other recent iPhone models (as you'd hope given how thin it is), the **other new iPhones** are actually all a bit **heavier**. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/iphone-air-weight/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Which I'm totally in favor of if it's mainly due to bigger batteries and thus, **longer battery life** (as seems to be the case). - Apple is giving **iPhone 14 and 15** users another **free** **year** of their **satellite** service, which has been free from the get-go, but always with the notion that they would eventually charge for it... **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/news/775309/apple-iphone-14-15-satellite-connectivity-free?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - [Maybe Elon](https://spyglass.org/apple-starlink-spacex/) and **Starlink** have changed [that equation](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=%F0%9F%9B%B0%EF%B8%8F%20SpaceX%20Buying,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)? - While having an **eSIM-only** **iPhone Air** was clearly going to be a problem for Apple in **China**, they seem to have struck a deal with one carrier, **China Unicom**, to launch it... **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/iphone-air-esim-china-unicom/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - This situation is tied to needing to link a phone to a **government-issued ID** in China, so China Unicom will require people do that **in-store** to activate the phone... - Might this lead to a **carrier switching** surge as we saw in the early days of the iPhone when it rolled out with specific carrier partners? If it's deemed desirable enough, sure! - **FiveWoven** lives! I mean, it probably [*shouldn't*](https://500ish.com/fine-woven-95c0bbb975fc?ref=spyglass.org), but apparently Apple thinks something about the material is um, *fine* for iPhone wallets, [just not full iPhone cases](https://spyglass.org/browning-like-a-rotten-banana/). **\[**[**SixColors**](https://sixcolors.com/post/2025/09/a-few-details-apple-didnt-mention-during-its-awe-dropping-event/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - The entire **Apple Watch** lineup has the same chip, the **S10**, which is the same chip as the last generation of Apple Watches also featured... **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/no-new-apple-watch-chip-for-the-first-time/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - In the past, Apple has at least **rebranded** the chips with a new number even if the CPU was technically the same, so this is weird/interesting... - The new **foam ear tips** of the **AirPods Pro 3** apparently feel quite a bit different in-ear, so say some hands-on – er, ears-on – folks. **\[**[**Engadget**](https://www.engadget.com/audio/headphones/apple-airpods-pro-3-hands-on-new-design-and-improved-anc-are-impressive-183246429.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - While the **AirPods Pro 3** have better battery life than the AirPods Pro 2, the **case**, which is smaller, actually has ***less* battery life capacity**. Sort of a weird trade-off to make. **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/10/airpods-pro-3-have-less-overall-battery-life-than-airpods-pro-2/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - While not announced during the event, **iOS 26**, **iPadOS 26**,and **macOS26** – "Tahoe" –will officially launch next Monday, **September 15**. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/ios-26-september-15-launch/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - And yes, **tvOS 26** and **watchOS 26** as well. Even **visionOS 26** too for [all](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-launch-disaster/) 2,000 Vision Pro owners worldwide – I kid, I kid! - Interesting that **macOS** is on that list as Apple often waits until **a later fall event** when they announce new **Macs** – which may suggest no new Macs this fall (which aligns with current rumors). - You know when you connect a MagSafe case and it conveys the color of the case on screen? That's actually being put to use in the new **iOS release candidate build**: you can **tint** your **icons** to match your **case color**. Not my thing – still not into the tinting – but fun. **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/ios-26-home-screen-tint-case-color/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **Orange** is the new black. Both perhaps [in fashion](https://www.vogue.com/article/spring-summer-2025-color-trends?ref=spyglass.org) [right now](https://www.glamour.com/story/taylor-swift-orange-is-already-becoming-the-color-of-the-year?ref=spyglass.org), and in the fact that there literally is *no black variant* of the **iPhone Pro** models. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/apple/775186/apple-iphone-17-pro-cosmic-orange-color-good?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Spy... [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/iphone-lineup-prices.jpg)](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/new-2025-iphone-lineup/?ref=spyglass.org) There's [also](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/09/new-2025-iphone-lineup/?ref=spyglass.org) the iPhone 16 at $699 and iPhone 16‌ Plus at $799 (if you really want a bigger screen than the iPhone 17 at the same price, I guess). [I pretty much nailed the pricing line-up six months ago](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) – not too hard to do except for the fact that the Air was still obviously just rumored at that point and I suspected they might try to bump it up $100 versus the price that the 'Plus' was sold at – which is exactly what they did. And that also let them bump the entry 'Pro' from $999 to $1,099 – but they did so [alongside a bump to 256GB minimum storage](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/09/iphone-17-pro-vs-iphone-16-pro-heres-everything-new/?ref=spyglass.org). And that leaves a hole at the $899 price point. Perhaps this year's iPhone Air will fill that *next year*? Speaking of [next year](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/), I'm more curious if my guess on 'iPhone Fold' pricing ends up being right as well: $1,999\. Which, incidentally is now the price of a fully maxed-out iPhone 17 Pro Max (with the new 2TB storage option). ### Apple's 'Plateau' Event URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-17-event/ Last updated: 2025-10-23T15:32:08.000Z Look, you can't go wrong with a Steve Jobs quote. I'm not really sure why Apple chose to open [their 2025 iPhone event](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3KnMyojEQU&ref=spyglass.org) with the famous *"Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works."* quote. It preceded a video focused on design elements of Apple products that I guess was meant to show case how well all their products work together? It was a nice little video. But overall, I don't think this year was more about design than any other Apple keynote. If I had to stretch towards a guess, maybe the notion of emphasizing that this year wouldn't be massive *external* design tweaks – such as with the AirPods and Apple Watches – but in refining how it all works? Then again, the iPhones sort of *do* look different this year? So maybe this was just Tim Cook's attempt to do a sort of reset with regard to the narrative about Apple. [Internally](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) and [externally](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/). To take back control of the message. [Forget AI](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) and [everything else](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=What%27s%20the%20record%20for%20saying%20%22thank%20you%22%20in%20a%20short%20span%3F%20I%20just%20counted%20NINE%20from%20Tim%20Cook%20in%2090%20seconds%20towards%20the%20Trumps%20in%20this%20clip.%20%5BXitter%5D), Apple is first and foremost about design, as was seemingly the point of his post-video opening. I don't know. It doesn't matter. The quote always works. My actual biggest takeaway from this keynote was how animated Tim Cook was. For once I don't mean animated literally with a goofy emoji face or whatever, he just seemed to have a pep in his step that I hadn't recalled seeing in quite some time. Perhaps *ever* when it comes to these pre-recorded keynotes. It's almost as if someone told him that if they wanted to keep doing these as recordings versus going back to live events – [as they](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-event-too-long/) [obviously](https://500ish.com/the-too-slick-apple-event-70c579ccec0f?ref=spyglass.org) [should](https://spyglass.org/sweet-iphone-16-2/) – he had to seem about 200% more excited. And he did! It was sort of nice to see, even if staged. Especially after that [one sleepy earnings call](https://spyglass.org/apple-q2-2025-earnings/) where he seemed completely disengaged and well, [whatever the fuck this was](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/). From there, we were off to the races. The AirPods Pro 3 segment was maybe 10 minutes long, but chock-full of great stuff. The AirPods-to-AirPods translation feature looks killer.[1](#one) As does adding some health/fitness capabilities to the headphones. Better ANC, better fit, better battery life, sweat-proof, same price. An absolute no-brainer of an upgrade. Apple Watch was more like 15 minutes as we had three different models to get through (as well as the now-standard testimonials of how the device has literally saved lives, which despite being showcased every year is no less affecting).[2](#two) The hypertension alert functionality – which Apple is openly predicting will help *over a million people* in the first year alone – seems incredible. New sleep tracking moves to match Oura Ring and others. While everything generally looks the same,[3](#three) they've managed to jack up battery life across the board. The company still feels far ahead here. And there we were, just 30 minutes in, when Cook kicked off the iPhone portion of the iPhone event. [Not a Jimmy Fallon in sight](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/) to distract everyone, Apple was cooking. iPhone 17 got a solid 10 minutes by itself. Nice updates, new colors, pretty standard stuff – presented from... Miami? The biggest thing of note may have been the lack of a literal big thing: no more "Plus" model, only one 6.3" version. Of course, this was well known because... The worst kept secret in Cupertino ([this year](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/)) [is](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) [here](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-foldable-ibook/): iPhone Air. Notably, it's not 'iPhone 17 Air', just 'iPhone Air' which stands out in the line up with iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. And it leads to the obvious question if Apple views this as a one-off design, perhaps if it doesn't sell well? That seems unlikely, so perhaps they'd just do an 'iPhone Air 2' next year? But that would be a bit awkward and confusing if they stick with the standard naming schemes for the other iPhones – i.e. do I buy an iPhone 18, an iPhone 18 Pro, or an iPhone Air 2 next year? Then again, next year should also see the 'iPhone Fold' introduced, so perhaps we're slowly moving away from the bigger numbers, which were always untenable at some point. Were we really going to get an 'iPhone 37' in 2045? The intro video highlights the narrator, [Abidur Chowdhury](https://www.gadgets360.com/others/news/who-is-abidur-chowdhury-iphone-air-introduced-industrial-designer-9249224?ref=spyglass.org), who is an industrial designer at Apple. Nice soothing, dulcet tones. English accent, but decidedly not Jony Ive... This was also the first mention of the "iconic plateau". Now, you and I may call this the "camera bump" but you and I are mistaken. It's a "plateau". Which is French for "big ass camera bump". But it's iconic, so there's that. "It's our thinnest iPhone ever with the power of 'Pro' inside. A paradox you have to hold, to believe." That's some very nice copy. And it highlights the true key of both the device and perhaps of the entire event. The iPhone Air isn't so much an iPhone 'Plus' replacement, as much as it's a skinny iPhone Pro model. That was a legitimate surprise and makes a decision on which iPhone to get for many users decidedly [more difficult](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Apple%27s%20%27iPhone,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). If the iPhone Air was going to be relatively under-powered, you were probably still going to get a Pro. So the question would have been if iPhone 17 buyers wanted to shell out more money for the thinner model. But it's a different equation when you're offering something that's sexier and cheaper than the Pro lineup, but powered by the same A19 Pro chip... Of course, the decision will ultimately likely come down to two things: camera system and battery life. On the former, the Pros are still *clearly* ahead. So if that's you're most important factor, you're still getting a Pro. With the Pros now getting even bigger batteries than before, that should also be relatively straight-forward if that's your main concern. But the introduction of a new iPhone Air-only ([ugh](https://spyglass.org/a-hypothetical-apple-beats-magsafe-power-pack/)) MagSafe battery that apparently brings battery life up to par with the Pro (though not the Pro Max) is interesting... But with that add-on, the price is up to Pro levels too. Regardless, it's an impressive feat of engineering (software and hardware?) to even get the battery life up to these levels in such a thin device. And by all accounts, the device looks and feels great in hand. Personally, I care too much about camera and battery life – and I've long been a 'Max' guy anyway – but I get why this is a debate now. Speaking of the A19 Pro chip, the most notable thing Tim Millet mentioned was "MacBook Pro-levels of compute in an iPhone", specifically when discussing its "Neural Accelerators" (read: AI) capabilities. A new 'N1' chip brings WiFi, Bluetooth, and Thread capabilities fully built by Apple to the iPhone for the first time. And yes, the 'C1X' brings Apple's modem chip to a flagship device – "it is even faster than the modem in iPhone 16 Pro" which is a veiled shot at Qualcomm, of course. The follow-up power efficiency point certainly has shades of Intel shade back in the day. Boy is Apple happy to be well on its way to severing this tie too... A single-lens camera system that John Ternus swears is great – we'll see. eSim-only, which may be an issue you-know-where.[4](#four) And a bumper! Yes, [the bumper is back](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/16/jobs-a-free-case-for-every-iphone-4-user/?ref=spyglass.org)! Hopefully without [the cellular performance issues](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/15/iphone-4-press-conference/?ref=spyglass.org) this time... And I appreciate that Apple showed a man putting on the cross-body iPhone strap while getting ready to go biking, showcasing a use-case and [alleviating some](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=It%27s%20not%20a%20new%20iPhone%20magnetic%20purse%20strap%2C%20it%27s%20a%20European%20Carry%2DAll!%20%28In%20all%20seriousness%2C%20will%20this%20help%20with%20phone%20thefts%3F%29%20%5BMacRumors%5D) "[European Carry-All](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-cOc6s9h8&ref=spyglass.org)" fears... For the iPhone Pro models, we got a video narrated by Molly Anderson, Apple's VP of Industrial Design – who wasn't shy about busting out "a-lew-min-e-um". Orange! Which almost distracted from "the first iPhone unibody" – which is probably only cool to those of us who recall the OG MacBook unibody reveal [15 years ago](https://techcrunch.com/2010/10/26/goodbye-macbook-pro-the-new-macbook-air-is-that-good/?ref=spyglass.org). Oh my god what are they doing to that poor iPhone Pro in that video? Bombarding it with keys, concrete, coins... um, beakers? Broken beaker proof iPhone! I was almost too distracted by Greg Joswiak *clearly* enjoying saying "vapor chamber" when he busted out "Cosmic Orange". I'm sorry, what? I knew Apple wouldn't just go with "orange" or "[papaya](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169817351/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org)" but what exactly is "cosmic" about "orange"? Perhaps the ease at which Apple can trademark such branding is out of this world... Actually, in a way, [my guess of "Sunbeam Orange"](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/ais-productivity-puzzles?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Internal%20Apple%20documents%20seem%20to%20confirm%20the%20color%20tweaks%20to%20the%20iPhone%20lineup%20this%20year%20%E2%80%93%20including%2C%20yes%2C%20a%20Copper/Orange%20iPhone%2017%20Pro%20model.%20Well%2C%20technically%2C%20%22Papaya%22%20per%20Pantone.%20We%27ll%20see%20what%20Apple%20markets%20it%20as%20%E2%80%93%20%22Sunbeam%22%3F%20%5BMacworld%5D) may not have been far off or out.[5](#five) The new thermal system does seem impressive if it can boost performance as much as Apple is touting (thanks to being able to run the chips longer and thus, hotter, at max capabilities). We even got a "running local large language models" out of Joz. Aluminum and ceramic are the new titanium and glass. 48MP on all three cameras – which are all now "Fusion" which means little to anyone outside of Apple's marketing department. 8x zoom. 8x-ish, at least. The entire event was filmed with an iPhone 17 Pro – nice touch. The device can now do "bullet time" shots. [Whoa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP8uhXuS2n8&ref=spyglass.org). "TechWoven" is [indeed](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172290055/i-spy?ref=spyglass.org) the new "FineWoven" but hopefully actually, [you know](https://500ish.com/fine-woven-95c0bbb975fc?ref=spyglass.org), [good this time](https://spyglass.org/browning-like-a-rotten-banana/). (It certainly looks better.) Looks like [I was right in my early guesstimations](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) about how much Apple might charge for the iPhone Air – which is to say, more than the iPhone Plus models (even though I assumed it wouldn't have the better specs of the Pro, so that's a nice bonus here). With a fully-spec'd-out iPhone 17 Pro Max with the new 2TB storage option, we finally have a $2,000 iPhone – fine, a $1,999 one. That means next year's Fold is undoubtedly going to shoot right past that... Tim Cook turn back to design to close. And he does so quickly, wrapping at the one hour, eleven minute mark. Overall, a nice and tight Apple event featuring three no-brainer updates and nothing more. No AirTags, no Apple TV, no HomePods, no iPad Pro (on its *exact* 10th anniversary, [harsh](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=Might%20today%27s%20Apple%20event%20also%20feature%20the%20M5%20iPad%20Pro%3F%20Normally%20such%20things%20happen%20in%20an%20October%20event%20but%20there%27s%20both%20a%20%28apparently%20reputable%29%20Xitter%20rumor%2C%20and%20Ryan%20Christoffel%20recalled%20that%20this%20will%20be%2010%20years%20to%20the%20day%20that%20the%20first%20iPad%20Pro%20was%20announced...%20%5B9to5Mac%5D)), certainly [no Vision Pro](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/#:~:text=I%20Spy...,at%20say...%20%242%2C999%20%F0%9F%98%9C.). (Certainly no new AI!) That seems to indicate that we'll get another fall event, perhaps around Halloween again. Or perhaps just some press releases? As for me, while the iPhone Air being decidedly more 'Pro' was an interesting wild card thrown out there, my upgrade path is clear: AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Ultra 3, iPhone 17 Pro Max – in "Cosmic Orange". **One more thing:** maybe the biggest surprise of the entire event? There is no black option for the iPhone Pro model. Just silver, orange, or blue ("Deep Blue" – though oddly, Apple doesn't try to brand "Silver"). Sort of wild. [Bruce Wayne is going to be so pissed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXzk9H3hIhc&ref=spyglass.org). 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Needs an EditorApple events should be TV-length, not movie-length…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-277.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-09-09-at-10.24.16-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-iphone-event-too-long/) [Apple Tries to Hide AI Under Liquid GlassWWDC 25 certainly wasn’t six out of five stars…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-279.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-10-at-2.18.36---PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) [Apple’s UI Event in the Age of AIBreaking down WWDC 25 and the myriad issues around Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-278.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_Apple_logo_encased_in_liquid_glass_--ar_169_--v_7_23df5dd6-fc6c-4efe-a256-67b7eebff3e4_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) --- 1 Yes, yes, Android has had live translation for a while, which apparently has sort of worked, sort of not over that time. But Airpods-to-Airpods in particular seems killer since, well, a lot of people have Airpods – Pixel Buds? Not so much. [↩](#) 2 Notably absent? [Newly-announced-to-be-retiring Jeff Williams](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) who previously always helped to introduce new Apple Watches. But [perhaps CEO-in-waiting Jeff Ternus](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) got his stage time during the all-important iPhone portion – well, screen time. [↩](#) 3 The Apple Watch Ultra 3's screen is slightly larger, but that was shrinking the bezels, not changing the case. [↩](#) 4 [Apparently only one carrier, China Unicom](https://support.apple.com/en-us/123879?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=China%20Unicom%20is%20the%20only,visit%20a%20China%20Unicom%20store.), is ready to roll with eSIM. [↩](#) 5 But I was [really hoping for something more "Copper"](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=I%2C%20for%20one,via%20MacRumors%5D) but figured "Orange" was more likely... [↩](#) ### Sony's 'KPop' Gift URL: https://spyglass.org/sony-kpop-movie-deal/ Last updated: 2025-10-23T15:31:42.000Z [Sony Pictures CEO Says Netflix Was the “Right Home” for ‘KPop Demon Hunters’“At the time it made sense, but in hindsight you think maybe it could’ve been theatrical,” Ravi Ahuja said at a Bank of America conference Thursday.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-25.png)The Hollywood ReporterAlex Weprin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/KpopDemonHunters_ProRes422HQ_SDR_2ch_20250424.00_31_19_12-H-2025-1.jpg)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/sony-ceo-says-netflix-right-home-kpop-demon-hunters-1236361280/?ref=spyglass.org) Obviously, after the success of *KPop Demon Hunters* – now Netflix's biggest movie *ever* – there's a lot of second-guessing going on. Should Sony have kept it to themselves? After the massive one-weekend-only event, [should it have been given a full theatrical release](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/)? I actually found Sony CEO Ravi Ahuja's answers pretty refreshingly honest: > Speaking at a Bank of America conference Thursday, Ahuja was asked by analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich whether *KPop Demon Hunters* could have worked in theaters for Sony. > > “This is the question we ask ourselves, everyone is asking us too. You know, I don’t know. Obviously in hindsight it is such a big hit you think maybe it could’ve,” Ahuja said. The easy, prepared answer would have been something like "Netflix is a great partner and we're thrilled with the success the movie has seen with them" deflecting from the actual question. But it's also not so black and white, as he's alluding to: > “It was during the pandemic, it’s k-pop themed, it was a very specific film, Netflix paid the whole cost plus a profit premium to us,” Ahuja added, explaining why the studio made the decision it did. “At the time it made sense, but in hindsight you think maybe it could’ve been theatrical, and in fact Netflix took it to theaters.” And when asked if Sony would have been able to replicate the success on their own, without Netflix: > “It started out on Netflix, and word of mouth made it grow. In theatrical that is a lot harder to do,” Ahuja said, noting that theatrical movies need to make a cultural impact fast. “I think it was in the right home. I think *KPop Demon Hunters’* right home was Netflix, but yeah, it is an interesting question, could it have been theatrical? It is hard to say.” I think he's probably right that this was the type of movie that was perfectly built for Netflix virality and doing a more traditional theatrical release might not have worked. It very well could have *bombed*. Which is exactly why everyone should be thinking about these [new types of release patterns](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org). Why not go with streaming first, as clearly worked here? [Why does theatrical have to be the first window](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/)? > “The theatrical bar, what is the bar you have to get over to make it theatrical … and I think for superhero movies the bar was relatively low,” Ahuja said of the state of franchise films. “Pretty much all of them would do incredible business, but now even superhero movies have to have originality, something different, an emotional connection.” > > “Things have to be cultural events, they have to be really appealing to some audience,” he added. Yeah, and you do that not just through marketing, which is increasingly fragmented across so many channels, you can leverage other means, such as the streaming services! Of course, getting the theater owners to buy into that might be an issue – [unless you own a theater chain](https://spyglass.org/sony-dont-fuck-this-up/)... > The exec also laid out a vision for Sony under his leadership, focusing on “consistent, stable growth over time,” while exploring new areas. > > That includes experiential entertainment through the Alamo Drafthouse, which he noted is still “relatively under-penetrated in big cities.” > > “Our aspiration is not to be huge in theatrical distribution,” he added, instead leaning on that team to help forge direct consumer ties. If I were Ahuja, with [my Netflix deal](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) just about up and all the [other streamers wanting my content for their service](https://spyglass.org/signal-waiting-on-a-remedy/#:~:text=Good%20timing%20for%20Sony%20on%20the%20KPop%20Demon%20Hunters%20movie%20success%3A%20their%20deal%20with%20Netflix%20is%20just%20about%20up%20and%20there%20will%20undoubtedly%20be%20a%20bidding%20war%20for%20the%20one%20major%20studio%20without%20their%20own%20streaming%20service.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), I would see this *Demon Hunters* phenomenon as a huge last-minute gift. Use it to strike a deal with a lot more flexibility when it comes to distribution. You could continue to release some films in theaters before they go to streaming, but you could also push some right to streaming with a provision that if they're starting to take off, there's an agreement to pull it over into theaters, just as with *Demon Hunters*. Or maybe the first movie is streaming-only, but if it works over an extended period of time, the sequel goes to theaters. Or vice-versa! [Try it all! ](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) What if just as Netflix was Sony's streaming partner, Sony/Alamo is [Netflix's theatrical partner](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/)? [When it makes sense](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/)! [As it often does](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/)! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [KPopping Netflix’s Theatrical StanceNetflix just had the number one movie at the box office – yes, Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-272.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/p0lq9155-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/) [We Shall Buy Alamo Drafthouse, Sony DecreesThis return to the form of early cinema was probably always inevitable…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-270.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/alamo-drafthouse-credit-wade-mcelroy2_1200xx1270-1270-389-0-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/sony-dont-fuck-this-up/) [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-271.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-273.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-11.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) [Of Tadpoles and TentpolesA 10 step plan to save the movie theater business![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-269.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Inside-Out-2-Online-Use-4-9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) ### Signal: iPhone RAM 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-ram/ Last updated: 2025-09-12T06:38:11.000Z Two quick thoughts on iPhone unveil day. First, while I still see it getting quite a bit of hate online, I actually really like iOS 26 – yes, even the liquid glassiness of it. But mainly I love how fast it is. Little animation speed ups really pay off. (I like the new OSes less [on iPad](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) and Mac, but they're all fine.) Second, while [I said yesterday](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/) that the thing I'm most looking forward to are the AirPods Pro 3, I think it's actually the ([long rumored](https://spyglass.org/iphone-ram/)) more RAM in the iPhone. Perhaps 12GB up from 8GB. Even beyond the AI equations, I still run into issues with apps quitting on me when I seem to "overdo" it. I wish I could pay more money for more RAM, but Apple would undoubtedly think that would make the device seem too much like a computer caught in a spec race (resource issues, etc). At least until they need more margin. ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... Thinking through the position in which OpenAI finds themselves feeling the need to burn $115B by the end of the decade. These are wild numbers. Bonkers. But they also almost make sense if you just back into what is happening... The next big race in AI may be to control the whole stack, as it were, because it may be the only way to make the model work to keep making models... [OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...Or: how to burn $100B+ in real time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-265.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_in_the_clouds_surrounded_by_light_--ar_169_--v__fa43516e-c077-4876-8f96-d28d7a580535_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/) --- ### Others Wrote... ##### 🤔 [Why Language Models Hallucinate](https://openai.com/index/why-language-models-hallucinate/?ref=spyglass.org) I found this to be an easy-to-read overview of [research](https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/d04913be-3f6f-4d2b-b283-ff432ef4aaa5/why-language-models-hallucinate.pdf?ref=spyglass.org) OpenAI has put out there about the "hallucination" phenomenon with AI. High level: the models to date have rewarded guessing over admitting uncertainty. Fixing it requires changing the incentive structure – something which human teachers learned long ago with regard to human students taking human tests. It clearly won't be so simple – [and we obviously don't want to go too far](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/) – but if you penalize being wrong while giving some credit for admitting when you don't know something, you're at least heading in the right direction. AI bots, [they're just like us](https://spyglass.org/the-age-of-ultracrepidarians/)... **\[**[**OpenAI**](https://openai.com/index/why-language-models-hallucinate/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ##### **🇺🇸** [**All the President’s Tech CEOs**](https://www.wired.com/story/tech-ceos-donald-trump-white-house/?ref=spyglass.org) I get the argument that these CEOs of major public companies may have [felt like they had no choice](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%8B%20The%20%27Kiss,%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) but to participate in such an event – and they probably *need* to be around the literal table when it comes to discussing the future of AI – but let's not conflate that with deeming the footage coming out of the around-the-horn praise-the-President-before-you-get-dinner exercise as "normal". It was just a [hugely pathetic](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=What%27s%20the%20record%20for%20saying%20%22thank%20you%22%20in%20a%20short%20span%3F%20I%20just%20counted%20NINE%20from%20Tim%20Cook%20in%2090%20seconds%20towards%20the%20Trumps%20in%20this%20clip.%20%5BXitter%5D) and embarrassing [literal show of fealty](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/), as Brian Barrett rightly notes in his piece. How will history look back upon all of this [kissing of the ring](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/), one wonders? [Probably not too kindly](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/), though that hardly matters for the bottom lines of these businesses *right now*. But [avoiding tariffs](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) does! [Mark](https://spyglass.org/signal-cable-bundles-of-joy/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20A%20Year,%5BPlatformer%5D) my words, at some point in the not-too-distant future as Trump glides into lame-duck status, we'll start getting some fun attempts to change the narrative around this moment in time. **\[**[**Wired**](https://www.wired.com/story/tech-ceos-donald-trump-white-house/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### Some Notes... - In a twist, the **judge** at first *rejected* **Anthropic's** proposed **settlement** over [illegally obtaining books for AI training](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/) before later saying he was ***postponing*** approving any deal pending a new clarifying submission. **\[**[**Bloomberg Law**](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/ip-law/anthropic-judge-blasts-copyright-pact-as-nowhere-close-to-done?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - He's worried that too many of the details are to be determined at a later date and that many would-be claimants in the class action will "**get the shaft**". - He said he also felt "**misled**" by the way the settlement has been framed... - More [bumps](https://spyglass.org/tag/copilot/) in the flight of **Microsoft Copilot** as the company considers simplified business **pricing** and yet more branding techniques with '**Agent 365**' – which sounds like an evil James Bond clone. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/notepad-microsoft-newsletter/771199/microsoft-365-copilot-changes-agents-pricing-notepad?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Might today's **Apple event** also feature the **M5 iPad Pro?** Normally such things happen in an October event but there's both a (apparently reputable) Xitter rumor, and Ryan Christoffel recalled that this will be *10 years to the day* that the first iPad Pro was announced... **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/08/m5-ipad-pro-launch-this-week-is-starting-to-look-very-possible/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• 'Startup Energy' at Snap** ****• SpaceX Buying Spectrum (CYBERPHONE?)** ****• Google's 'Open Web' Gaffe** ****• OpenAI Ongoing Melodramas** ****• Howard Stern Lives** ****• Vision Pro in Black** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT... URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-spend-cloud-chips/ Last updated: 2025-10-23T15:28:12.000Z Just about a year ago, OpenAI was circulating some numbers that suggested the amount of cash they'd need to burn through 2029, at which point they'd flip to being cash flow positive, was a lot. Like a lot, a lot. [Like $30B](https://spyglass.org/openai-magic-money-mountain/). And so, a few months later, when they declared their intent to raise $40B it was [a spectacle](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/), but not exactly a surprise. They needed to raise roughly that amount of money at some point! To be clear, it's still completely incredible to raise that amount of money – [more than has been raised in any IPO, ever](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) – in one round, even over a few tranches. And even Anthropic's new mega fundraise – [$13B!](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Anthropic%27s%20%2413B,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – months later, can't hold a candle to the amount. But now I have to assume even OpenAI's number is going to be dwarfed. By OpenAI. That's because new projections, updated from last year and [obtained by Sri Muppidi of *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-says-business-will-burn-115-billion-2029?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) suggest that OpenAI is no longer planning to burn around $30B through the end of the decade. It's going to be more. How much more? Oh, you know, *$80B more*. That is not a typo. OpenAI is now projecting their go-forward cash burn will be around $115B before flipping to cash flow positive – which is now projected to be pushed back by a year, to 2030, per the reporting. The numbers are such that after burning $9B this year (up from $7B originally projected), and $17B next year (up from $8B), they would need to raise again in 2027 at the latest, when burn would ramp to $35B (up from $20B). And it's that *next* year, 2028, when they project peak burn, at just under $50B (previously, peak burn was projected to be 2027's $20B). Burn starts to turn in 2029 now, when they'll go through a mere $8B. And then cash flow positive to the tune of $38B in 2030. All of this suggests that in that next hypothetical fundraise (or *fundraises*), OpenAI would need to raise well north of $50B. Perhaps as much as $80B, just to be safe. Which is a funny sentence to write when you're talking about burning $115B over the next five years. Hell, let's say they should raise $100B, *just in case*. Now, obviously, they could go public before these full cash burn needs come to pass. And they perhaps would even prefer that since the public markets will offer them more varied and less dilutive paths to access such capital. I say "less dilutive" knowing that actually none of the money raised to date has technically been dilutive, because given their still-in-place non-profit status, they've only been selling rights to shares in future profits. (After Microsoft gets paid, of course.) But if the company is able to [convert into a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC)](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) – a prospect that [keeps](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/) running into hurdles on [seemingly a daily basis](https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20the%20tragedies%20being%20linked%20to%20chatbots%2C%20the%20AGs%20of%20California%20and%20Delaware%2C%20who%20hold%20the%20PBC%20fate%20of%20OpenAI%20in%20their%20hands%2C%20make%20it%20pretty%20clear%20that%20these%20situations%20may%20be%20altering%20their%20thinking...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – and convert those profit promises into equity, well, they're going to be giving up massive chunks of equity overnight. [Perhaps 33% of the company to Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/). [Maybe another 12% to SoftBank](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-starts-look-like-masas-savior?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). That already leaves just 55% of the company, of which the non-profit is undoubtedly going to have a large chunk. With Khosla's early investment and all the massive recent checks led by Thrive and others, the company is getting whittled down quickly – and that's without Sam Altman owning a stake! And we won't even bring up the possibility that Elon Musk gets awarded some shares here... [It's complicated](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/). With all that in mind, if they raise $100B in the next couple of years, even if they do so at $1T – you laugh now – things are getting tight, is all I'm saying. Even if they can raise that amount privately – and they probably can – they also probably need to go public. Or be forced to deal in massive loads of debt, [which is always dangerous](https://spyglass.org/the-debt-of-damocles/), but perhaps far too much at such heights. *Can they* go public? Many will scream "no way" given the not just the lack of profitability, but the sink hole to the center of the Earth they're creating with their burn. But at the same time, the revenue projections keep growing too. As does the popularity of the app. And their [mindshare as the leader in AI](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) at the moment. Which is to say, of course they can go public. [And likely will](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). Anyway, I sort of just wanted to say – type – all of that out loud to try to wrap my head around it all. Now you may wonder why they suddenly need to burn $80B more than previously anticipated? It's a fair question. Certainly some of it is due to their success – which is to say that because ChatGPT continues to prove more popular and thus, more used, than they've been projecting, it keeps costing more to you know, run it. There's nuance and wiggle room there – certainly some of [the recent GPT-5 changes](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/) just rolled out seem related to trying to make their scaling more scalable. But one big issue has always been that OpenAI doesn't control their own cost fate, because they've run from the get-go on Microsoft's servers. Now that is slowly shifting. With Microsoft not only allowing them to run on other clouds, but practically *begging* for it to happen – undoubtedly so they don't have to ramp their own CapEx for *two* of the largest companies in the world. And so the main benefactor of OpenAI has [shifted from Microsoft to SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/). But, of course, SoftBank doesn't run their own massive cloud like Microsoft. Hence, [the Stargate Project was born](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) – out of the ashes of a project OpenAI had planned to do with Microsoft! And therein likely lies the key for those costs. OpenAI, with SoftBank, is going to try to build their own at-scale cloud on the fly. They've noted there could be a way to allow others to use Stargate data centers in the future, thus offsetting some of their costs, but for now, they need all the capacity they can get. [Which is why](https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/) the first Stargate is really [a complicated and convoluted series of partnerships](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) spearheaded by Oracle in Abilene, Texas. And actually, that too was born out of other ashes – [a failed deal with Elon Musk for xAI](https://spyglass.org/from-space-balls-to-stargate/), no less. Are we having fun yet? Beyond the undoubtedly crazy costs – a lot of which SoftBank is supposedly paying for – for power, water, and the like, they also need chips. A lot of chips. Chips from NVIDIA. And not only are those expensive, they're not even available at the scale at which OpenAI will need them just to run ChatGPT. And so there's [a tangled weave](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/) of yet more partners being used to try to get access to enough chips. And all of this will undoubtedly continue at the next Stargate site. And the next one. [And so on](https://spyglass.org/stargate-project-rivals/). You're starting to see how costs can spiral out of control. OpenAI is trying to go from paying to use other clouds to building their own, but beyond the usual CapEx costs, they have to do so with data centers being built at a scale never done before. And while all of that is presumably to save costs in the long run – real shades of web companies trying to build their own clouds so as not to have to pay AWS back in the day – there's still going to be that one massive cost going forward: NVIDIA. Even with the Stargates built out, OpenAI is presumably going to have to pay for the latest and greatest NVIDIA chips every year to stay on the cutting edge of AI. Unless, of course, they figure out a way to make their own chips too. Which is exactly what [they're believed to be working on](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20OpenAI%27s%20Custom,%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – which has been [all-but confirmed](https://www.ft.com/content/e8cc6d99-d06e-4e9b-a54f-29317fa68d6f?ref=spyglass.org) by their would-be partner in such an undertaking: Broadcom. [OpenAI is hardly alone here](https://spyglass.org/the-race-for-ai-independence/). Everyone is looking at Google right now and what they've been able to do with their in-house TPUs used to train Gemini. To be clear, Google partners with and uses NVIDIA chips too, but clearly their TPUs have now come into their own for various aspects of AI. Which is [undoubtedly why](https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8D%AA%20Google%20TPUs,%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) they're [rumored](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/google-ramps-ai-chip-competition-nvidia?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) to be selling the chips to other clouds now for external usage. Amazon has been doing the same thing with the Trainium chips, just with less success to date. But if their [partnership with Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-golden-fork-amazon/) yields results, the entire industry might be happy because it signals another option beyond NVIDIA. Which, of course, no one would ever dare say, less they piss off NVIDIA and potentially hamper access to those all-important cutting-edge chips. But as the onus shifts from training to inference, everyone is thinking that there can be more of a hybrid approach here, one not solely reliant on NVIDIA. Well, everyone but NVIDIA is thinking that, as they want to own inference as well. Yes, yes, CUDA complicates all of this. And many are working on ways to try to be compatible with the software layer that is the standard. But the high level point remains that everyone is trying to diversify away from a total reliance on NVIDIA. And if you look at the OpenAI situation, which is the extreme version, you can clearly see why. I mean, they're going to burn over $100B over the next five years. And that's in no small part because they haven't controlled their own cloud and their own chips. If they can execute on their crazy spend plan and get not just one, but *many* Stargates up and running at scale, it will all be worth it. But the issue right now is that Google is already building Gemini with their own cloud and their own chips at scale. That would seem to be a problem – certainly if any sort of market turn happens and it becomes a challenge to raise, say, $100B.[1](#one) --- 1 I would say that Anthropic is in a similar boat except that they've seemingly been able to better align with Amazon ([and to a lesser extent, Google](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/)). Microsoft should have been the one using Azure and building their own chips (which they're naturally doing too, of course) to bolster OpenAI here. With that context, it's crazy how the relationship [has played out](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/). Microsoft may very well end up owning 33% of a company they're massively competing with. [↩](#) ### Signal: iPhone Unveil Week 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-iphone-unveil-week/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T18:37:48.000Z Happy iPhone Unveil Week to those who celebrate. While it seems like pretty much everything is known about the iPhone 17 models, I'm personally more excited about the potential for the AirPods Pro 3 – mainly because my AirPods 2 are now twos years old (I bought the updated USB-C version when that came out a year after the original to cut down on cables required to bring with me) and can barely hold a charge after all the overuse. There's a lot below. ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [A Cynical Read on Anthropic’s Book Settlement$1.5B. Damn. Who can afford to pay that?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-261.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Michael-Corleone-Godfather-feature-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/) [Something Rotten in the State of TomatoesThe Rotten Tomatoes score situation reeks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-262.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_A_tomato_that_is_rotten_--ar_169_--v_7_adc0b4e2-f457-49a2-9009-3cc6dc03ccad_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/rotten-tomatoes-bad-reviews/) --- ### A Few Thoughts... 📲 [**Apple's 'iPhone Air' Gamble**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-09-07/apple-s-iphone-17-air-event-which-new-iphone-should-i-buy-iphone-17-pro-mf9n5f9g?cmpid=BBD090725%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250907&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) – I've talked about [this before](https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/), but I do [wonder](https://spyglass.org/think-thin-iphone-ultra/) if the 'Air' strategy isn't sort of a risky one for Apple. While the device will undoubtedly have initial sex appeal because of how svelte it is compared to other iPhones – if you close your eyes, you can probably already see Apple's massive marketing push here, ideally *not* featuring [crushing creativity to death](https://spyglass.org/crush-with-i-liner/) – it will likely be in a strange specs/price no man's land. It will [neither be the cheapest nor the fastest](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) iPhone. And while, as Gurman notes, the same was true with the MacBook Air when it launched, the iPhone could play out differently because the portability jump won't be nearly as pronounced – at least not enough to overcome the biggest trade off which matters far more in phones: [battery life](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/). And yes, Apple may have a solution of sorts in the form of "there's a battery pack for that", what's the point at that point? Of course, the MacBook Air didn't really make the leap until it was refined to be cheaper and faster, so maybe that's the bet here too. And it almost served as more of a forcing function to push the state-of-the-art forward. But Samsung and others already have super-slim phones. Personally, I'd much prefer more battery life, even if it meant an iPhone *thicker* than it is right now (as is rumored with iPhone 17 Pro) without question. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-09-07/apple-s-iphone-17-air-event-which-new-iphone-should-i-buy-iphone-17-pro-mf9n5f9g?cmpid=BBD090725%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250907&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) **🔒\]** **🧠** [**OpenAI's Behavioral Reorg**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/05/openai-reorganizes-research-team-behind-chatgpts-personality/?ref=spyglass.org) – Making the 'Model Behavior' team a part of the 'Post Training' team seems like a bigger deal than just a management reorg. It's an acknowledgement that AI "personality" is now a crucial part of ChatGPT – which everyone, including OpenAI itself, learned in a loud manner [during the GPT-5 backlash](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/). But it undoubtedly goes far beyond that too given all the sad and bad situations [unfolding](https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20A%20Troubled,%5BWSJ%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) on [seemingly](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171274073/metas-flirty-ai-bot-lures-to-tragedy?ref=spyglass.org) a daily basis with regard to people losing their lives in ways that are at the very least tangentially tied to such chats. What perhaps started as a fun part of ChatGPT is now decidedly more serious... At the same time, the former leader of that group starting a new "lab" within OpenAI to focus on "inventing and prototyping new interfaces for how people collaborate with AI" also seems important. Especially as [new gadgets arise](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)... If ChatGPT itself was sort of stumbled into, what else might they find with the technology now leaps and bounds beyond those early days? **\[**[**TechCrunch**](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/05/openai-reorganizes-research-team-behind-chatgpts-personality/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### Some Notes... - Speaking of the **tragedies** being linked to **chatbots**, the **AGs of California and Delaware**, who hold [the PBC fate of OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) in their hands, make it pretty clear that these situations may be altering their thinking... **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/f4be38b3-2de9-4b81-bc47-24119c2d5aef?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - **21st Amendment**, a craft brewery that anyone who has spent any time in **San Francisco** in the past 25 years undoubtedly knows, has abruptly **shut down**. It sadly sounds like a debt issue, and they're [looking for buyers](https://www.brewbound.com/news/21st-amendment-to-wind-down-operations-and-close-taprooms-founders-seek-buyer-for-brand?ref=spyglass.org) of the brand **\[**[**SFist**](https://sfist.com/2025/09/05/21st-amendment-shutting-down-permanently-both-sf-taproom-and-east-bay-brewery-will-close/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - I can't tell you how many meetings I did in their **SoMa tap room** in my years in the city, which opened alongside the still-excellent waterfront ballpark for the San Francisco Giants, which is right down the street. - Speaking of... where the hell is **Anchor Brewing**? We're now [well over a year since](https://vinepair.com/articles/hop-take-anchor-brewing-still-not-open-after-billionaire-purchase/?ref=spyglass.org) the Chobani yogurt billionaire **Hamdi Ulukaya** ["saved" it](https://spyglass.org/anchors-aweigh/). And yet, no one seems to know. And when asked, no one seems to talk. **\[**[**SFGate**](https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/anchor-brewing-sf-update-one-year-after-sale-20397779.php?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - It's not [a new](https://x.com/SonnyDickson/status/1964898859668443336?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1964898859668443336%7Ctwgr%5E686d25b84508b44ab8bab87c14a94bda50be8cfe%7Ctwcon%5Es1%5F&ref%5Furl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.macrumors.com%2F2025%2F09%2F08%2Fall-new-iphone-17-accessory-leaked%2F&ref=spyglass.org) **iPhone** **magnetic** purse **strap**, [it's a European Carry-All](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-cOc6s9h8&ref=spyglass.org)! (In all seriousness, will this help [with phone thefts](https://spyglass.org/an-iphone-stolen/)?) **\[**[**MacRumors**](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/09/08/all-new-iphone-17-accessory-leaked/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - In other last-minute leaks, is the **iPhone 17 Pro camera** going up to **8x** optical zoom? With a new "**vapor cooling chamber**"? **\[**[**9to5Mac**](https://9to5mac.com/2025/09/07/leak-iphone-17-pro-features-camera-cooling/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - If **Fede Alvarez** really doesn't want to direct the **sequel** to (the very good) ***Alien: Romulus***, might I suggest a fun choice: James Cameron? **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/alien-romulus-sequel-fede-alvarez-1236362496/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• ASML's Mistral Investment** ****• 'X Money' Struggles** ****• 'Conjuring: Last Rites' Massive Opening** ****• AI's "Napster Moment"** ****• OpenAI's New Revenue (and Burn) Projections** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Something Rotten in the State of Tomatoes URL: https://spyglass.org/rotten-tomatoes-bad-reviews/ Last updated: 2025-09-06T20:56:21.000Z [ Attack of the Rotten Tomatoes At a time when everyone is suspicious of Hollywood, the industry’s biggest arbiter of quality has become rigged, providing the assessment that Hollywood wants rather than the critical feedback that it needs. ![](https://puck.news/apple-touch-icon.png) Puck Matt Belloni ![](https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/smashing-machine-scaled-e1757049244919-2048x1153.jpeg) ](https://puck.news/is-rotten-tomatoes-rigged/?ref=spyglass.org) Around these parts, [I like to](https://spyglass.org/a-standing-ovation-epidemic/) [make fun of](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-revisited/) [film festival applause inflation](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-at-cannes/). It's a game being played in the press trying to make the public believe that the length of a standing ovation at one of these events has any correlation to how good a movie actually is (spoiler alert: it does not). There are interesting social dynamics at play in the actual ovation, but the lengths reported are clearly bullshit as they keep jumping around in headlines. And that's all about ego. Undoubtedly PR people trying to ensure that the movie they represented matches or surpasses the other movies it's up against. It's silly and it's nonsense. But there's a much bigger game afoot. Matt Belloni took one look at the [Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/?ref=spyglass.org) scores being touted for movies coming out of the film festivals and called BS: > But it’s all kinda become B.S. noise, a victim of the overall praise inflation that has terminally afflicted late-stage Hollywood. Nobody believes the festival hype anymore because it’s all become *just* hype, and everyone seems to be in on the grift—from the media outlets seeking clicks to the journalists coveting access to the review aggregators chasing engagement. At the center of it all is Rotten Tomatoes, which is simultaneously the most influential arbiter of quality in the movie business and a misleading mess. How did that happen? A decade ago, [I first wrote about](https://500ish.com/the-wisdom-of-the-well-informed-7270edec70cf?ref=spyglass.org) my love of [Metacritic](https://metacritic.com/?ref=spyglass.org) in the face of the rise of Rotten Tomatoes. Why? Because give me the "wisdom of the well-informed" over the "wisdom of the masses" any day. The masses, as they say, are asses. And part of that jackassery is the fact that they can be gamed. Or worse, bought and sold. But even just more tactically, I had spent years looking at the discrepancies in scores between the two sites and [always finding myself](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) siding with Metacritic. Rotten Tomatoes was [*clearly* inflating ratings](https://spyglass.org/fury-over-furiosa/) (by including jokers in their review pools) even back then. > At this point, most savvy moviegoers kinda know Rotten Tomatoes has been diluted and corrupted to the verge of incoherence. Owned since 2016 by Universal and Warner Bros., the site and its binary grading system—reviews are categorized as either a tomato or a splatter, with no room for nuance—have always infuriated filmmakers and disserved users. But lately, studios have become even more aggressive in gaming the scores, both by strategically embargoing *reactions* and formal reviews, and doing their best to empower the writers whose opinions tend to serve their interests. (It’s always hilarious to see the effusive praise of a mediocre movie from people invited to a splashy premiere dutifully aggregated by the media, followed the next day by a steaming crap sandwich from actual critics whom the studio doesn’t control—often at those same media outlets.) That also reminds me of the situation where you see the "initial reactions" to a movie premiere on social media that declare, say, *Mission:Impossible 8*, to be the greatest action movie of all time. It was fine! But it was clearly not that. Obviously – *obviously* – the people invited to such events are either suffering from the worst case of recency bias imaginable, some very real acute forms of starfuckery, or just want to be invited to the next premiere. Or all three. Often all three. > It helps that the “Certified Fresh” rating is often generated by only a handful of reviews at echo chambers of enthusiasm like Sundance or Venice. Social media aggregator accounts with large followings then pick up the early high scores as gospel, creating a false narrative of extreme quality. Recently, *The Smashing Machine*went [viral](https://x.com/FilmUpdates/status/1962567840487317649?ref=spyglass.org) with a “debut” score of 100 percent Fresh out of Venice, but it was quickly knocked down to 84 percent and falling, even before most of the mainstream critics have had a crack at it. That’s a strategy, not an accident. You see so much marketing these days about the "100% Fresh" rating, which is literally just off of a handful of these friendly reviews. The marketing, of course, is never updated. And it doesn't matter because movie [openings matter more than ever](https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/). > Perhaps most egregious, the site now aggregates the actual critics alongside dozens of random awards pundits, fan accounts, and Substackers with opaque credentials or agendas, minimizing the influence of career writers who bring experience, transparency, and oversight from editors. Some argue this is an overdue democratization of the critical elites, who until recently were largely white and male and dismissive of the kind of popcorn fare that average audiences prefer. I get that. The reality is that the professional critic is a dying breed—many once-influential outlets, like *The Chicago Tribune* and *Vanity Fair*, recently eliminated their critic positions precisely because opinion has become ubiquitous online. But the result is pretty obvious: Rotten Tomatoes has become a steaming tar pit of random takes, agenda-driven awards punditry, and press junket fluff, largely indistinguishable from the social media morass it purports to float above. > > Plus, the whole thing is vulnerable to outright fraud. Studios can complain and get ratings switched if a lukewarm review is deemed inappropriately negative. Two years ago, *New York* [reported](https://www.vulture.com/article/rotten-tomatoes-movie-rating.html?ref=spyglass.org) on the P.R. firms that recruited little-known “critics” and paid them to write or change reviews that boosted RT scores. One film was elevated from Rotten (46 percent) to Fresh (62 percent) after the manipulation. It’s all very gross. Said another way: the masses are asses. > And yet… Rotten Tomatoes somehow remains the industry standard for judging the quality of movies. It’s kinda nuts. No individual critic matters anymore, only the “Certified Fresh” score, which studios splay across TV and digital ads like a stamp of widespread approval. **Kevin Goetz**, the test-screening guru, now forecasts RT scores for upcoming movies—which makes sense because they can make or break a release plan. It’s a fake metric of quality that has become a real metric only because Hollywood collectively decided to buy in. Like, say, the Golden Globes. It's even worse than that when you take into account [their new-ish "Popcorn Meter" nonsense](https://spyglass.org/the-arbiter-of-movie-quality-comcast/), which aims to further "democratize" the whole ratings system – well, as long as you bought your ticket through Comcast-owned Fandagno to be eligible to vote on Comcast-owned Rotten Tomatoes. Corporate democratization! But really, let's be honest, it's about being able to give out more ways for studios to tailor their marketing. Participation badges, essentially. Belloni goes on to enlist a researcher to see how Rotten Tomatoes scores have trended over the past several years. You'll never guess the results. It's pathetic. > It’s a bummer, but does any of this actually matter? Depends who you are. Hollywood is nothing if not marketing and spin, so the stakes here are admittedly low for people who are savvy enough to see through the B.S. Personally, I go to Metacritic for at least a more accurate assessment of movies, and I’ve vowed to stop citing Rotten Tomatoes. Beyond that, the real issue is that the consumers lose. At a time when everyone is suspicious of the media and Hollywood, the industry’s biggest arbiter of quality is indeed rigged, providing the critical assessment that Hollywood wants rather than the one it needs. I agree with every single word. I'm not saying fewer and fewer people are going to see movies in movie theaters every year because they feel tricked by this type of marketing – but I'm saying it certainly doesn't help the situation! 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Ovation InflationWhat is going on at Cannes and \*who\* is counting?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-256.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT--1--3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-at-cannes/) [Ovation Inflation RevisitedA lot of noise and breathless headlines mean... not much.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-257.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_men_in_tuxedos_clapping_in_standing_ovation_--ar_21_--p_3c62888e-72c9-4f9d-bc78-9c2d9dde2935_2-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-revisited/) [A Standing Ovation Epidemic Breaks Out in VeniceThere is no known cure…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-258.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_httpss.mj.run_3ySJFW7Rzg_this_but_anime_--ar_169_--v_7_f460f180-42d8-4821-bcff-f0e51444b29f_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-standing-ovation-epidemic/) [The Great Okay Part IINetflix continues to churn out decidedly mediocre hit movies![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-260.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/LTM0085_d0122_1058-1-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/) [The Arbiter of Movie Quality? Comcast.“Verified Hot” is better than “Hot”, which is a participation badge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-259.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-08-21-at-8.17.00-PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-arbiter-of-movie-quality-comcast/) ### A Cynical Read on Anthropic's Book Settlement URL: https://spyglass.org/cynical-read-on-anthropics-book-settlement/ Last updated: 2025-10-21T08:02:07.000Z There I was, just sitting there enjoying life when I got the push notification that [Anthropic had settled their case](https://www.techmeme.com/250905/p19?ref=spyglass.org#a250905p19) with book publishers over potential copyright infringement related to the downloading of books used to train their models. Good on them, I thought. Despite seemingly everyone else doing some type of infringing, [and despite winning a related case](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166970418/anthropic-wins-a-major-fair-use-victory-for-ai?ref=spyglass.org), they knew they were in the wrong and were taking the high road. What was the settlement amount? Maybe a few million? Maybe $50 million? *I'm sorry, what?* **$1.5 billion**. With a 'b'. And not for "book". Holy shit [that's a lot of money](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1964057378065698826?ref=spyglass.org). Sure, if Anthropic lost such a case they could have been liable for more money. [Maybe a trillion dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/anthropic-to-pay-1-5-billion-to-settle-author-copyright-claims?ref=spyglass.org)! But come on, we've all seen this story before. Copyright holders sue a new tech player and say their violations are worth trillions. And then they settle for a teeny, tiny fraction of that. This fraction is decidedly higher than those other fractions. And normally you might think a smaller settlement with a new deal going forward would be more likely here since again, it sure sounds like many other companies were doing the same basic things. That doesn't make it right, of course. But it makes it more murky – especially if we're talking about multiple trillion-dollar settlement requests coming in. Another wrinkle here: in their settlement statement, Anthropic makes it clear [that they didn't even use any of the material](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/technology/anthropic-settlement-copyright-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) taken from these data sets to train their models that are in use.[1](#one) And so you can't help but wonder if part of the equation in this settlement wasn't decidedly more cynical. Fresh off [a new massive fundraise](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A7%A0%20Anthropic%27s%20%2413B,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – one in which they raised [far more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/anthropic-completes-new-funding-round-at-183-billion-valuation?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org) than they were initially targeting, I might add – Anthropic has a lot of money. More than perhaps [all but one of their competitors](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) on the startup side. By settling for $1.5B, is Anthropic sort of pulling up a drawbridge, making it so that other startups can't possibly come into their castle? I mean, am I crazy? I'm not so sure I am. At $1.5B, there are only a handful of companies that could afford to pay such fines. Certainly OpenAI is one. Maybe xAI. And of course all the tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, [and Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-operation-kick-puppies/). But could any other startup that has done any level of model training with such data? Probably not. And so I wonder: did Dario Amodei just pull a [Michael Corleone-like](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pf8BkFLBRw&ref=spyglass.org) elimination-of-enemies move overnight? Was this a maneuver he learned from Elon Musk? Oh, OpenAI wants to convert into a for-profit? [Let's set a new floor price on that](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/). Dario just set a floor price on AI training infringement! This is a message to all competitors: a standard has been set, open up those wallets if you want to keep playing this game. I'm watching a lot of journalists and writers seem almost euphoric at the news. How much is *my* work worth?! Again, not so fast. This move may actually jolt the market in a *bad* way, by taking out would-be competitors [for your words](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/). Anthropic says it's settling because they didn't want to risk having to spend trillions. That may or may not have come to pass. But certainly Anthropic was more likely to have to spend trillions if the AI Wars continue on as they have been these past couple of years, battling so many companies on so many fronts. With this move, Anthropic may have just narrowed that field. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/mgs22_a_robot_reading_a_book_--ar_169_--v_7_747075e1-a2c6-44d3-b76d-5fd4e49c7d9f_0-2.png) --- **Update September 6, 2025**: And here come the next wave of lawsuits with [Apple now being sued by a group of authors](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/apple-sued-by-authors-over-use-books-ai-training-2025-09-05/?ref=spyglass.org). --- **Update September 9, 2025**: In a twist, [the judge in the case at first *rejected* the settlement before later saying the approval was "postponed"](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/ip-law/anthropic-judge-blasts-copyright-pact-as-nowhere-close-to-done?ref=spyglass.org) with a new version of the settlement being requested. Specifically, it sounds like he's worried that too many of the details are to be determined at a later date and that many would-be claimants in the class action will "get the shaft". He said he also felt "misled" by the way the settlement has been framed. --- **Update September 25, 2025**: And now [the judge has agreed to "preliminarily" approve the deal](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-judge-approves-15-billion-anthropic-copyright-settlement-with-authors-2025-09-25/?ref=spyglass.org) and it sounds like all parties are aligned on making it happen... --- ## Spyglass Signal A daily newsletter by M.G. Siegler Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Sent from afar on weekdays... --- 1 Which suggests they used it to train other models that they didn't end up going with? Which probably isn't any less illegal? Also, one has to wonder if Anthropic was worried about what would be found in the discovery process here... [↩](#) ### Signal: A Seat at the Fealty Table 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-a-seat-at-the-fealty-table/ Last updated: 2025-09-05T15:15:51.000Z The seating arrangement for Trump's tech dinner was [interesting](https://sfstandard.com/2025/09/04/trump-hosts-silicon-valley-leaders-minus-musk-schmooze-fest/?ref=spyglass.org). Obviously a lot of thought goes into that. So kudos to Mark Zuckerberg for prime placement, I guess. [All the](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) [kissing up](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-speech-about-face-book/) [is](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) [paying off](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/). Sadly, Tim Cook's [gold bar present](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) apparently wasn't enough for that seat, but it did buy him [a seat next to](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/donald-trumps-dinner-with-tech-ceos-who-are-indian-origin-bosses-on-the-list-101757035517570.html?ref=spyglass.org) the Google party – specifically Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai. And I find that interesting given that I just wrote about how it's starting to feel like the stars are aligning for the old band to get back together again... [Apple and Google Are So BackThe famous frenemies seems awfully aligned again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-249.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-7.19.11---PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Others Wrote... ##### **🍄** [**Nintendo: The Weird Genius of Gaming**](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-nintendo-switch2/?ref=spyglass.org) It's almost impossible to read this profile of Nintendo by Vlad Savov and Takashi Mochizuki and not be reminded of Apple at numerous points. Yes, they likely delayed the launch of the Switch 2 – [which was awkward at times](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2/) – because they were obsessed with getting every little detail right. And it has paid off, quite literally, with sales [exploding out of the gate](https://spyglass.org/nintendo-switch-2-launch/). There's also an obsession with cash reserves, to make sure they can withstand any future storm and remain in control of their own destiny. One key difference: the 136 year old company has never thought of itself as a tech company. They're just focused on culture and creativity and most importantly, the games. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-nintendo-switch2/?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ##### **🤖** [**A Troubled Man, His Chatbot and a Murder-Suicide**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chatgpt-ai-stein-erik-soelberg-murder-suicide-6b67dbfb?ref=spyglass.org) In the opposite vein, the story of Stein-Erik Soelberg, the former tech worker who killed himself and his mother, perhaps fueled by his discussions with "Bobby Zenith" a persona he bestowed upon ChatGPT, is a harrowing read. The chat logs that Julie Jargon and Sam Kessler reviewed are troubling, to say the least. And specifically, it looks like the "memory" features of the service came back to haunt here. (This is an obviously beyond-extreme example of [elements that I've been worried about](https://spyglass.org/ai-distant-memory/) with such functionality.) To be clear, there were other issues in Soelberg's life and it certainly seems like he was in a bad mental state long before the bot. But the bot clearly did not help. And may very well have hurt. [Far too many](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/opinion/chat-gpt-mental-health-suicide.html?ref=spyglass.org) of [these types of stories](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171274073/metas-flirty-ai-bot-lures-to-tragedy?ref=spyglass.org) coming [far too fast](https://www.ft.com/content/36beb3fd-f678-4c28-b962-56ea9f222dc5?ref=spyglass.org) these days... OpenAI, for their part, [says they're at work on better guardrails](https://www.axios.com/2025/09/02/chatgpt-openai-mental-health-teens?ref=spyglass.org) due later this year. **\[**[**WSJ**](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chatgpt-ai-stein-erik-soelberg-murder-suicide-6b67dbfb?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** --- ### A Few Notes... - What's the record for saying "**thank you**" in a short span? I just counted *NINE* from **Tim Cook** in 90 seconds towards the **Trumps** in this clip. **\[**[**Xitter**](https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1963786061114417495?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - **NVIDIA** is renting NVIDIA chips from the NVIDIA-backed **Lambda** making NVIDIA Lambda's biggest customer ahead of their public offering. How's that for a [new layer](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) of the [conflicted cake](https://spyglass.org/follow-the-nvidia-chips/)? **\[**[**Information**](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-quietly-boosts-cloud-ally-1-5-billion-deal-rent-ai-chips?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** - The rare tech/sports angle with **Steve Ballmer** in the middle of a firestorm over payments to his **Clippers** star player, **Kawhi Leonard**, that may have circumvented salary cap rules. **\[**[**Pablo Torre Finds Out**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OwzYk6OCFM&ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - Ballmer claims that he was totally unaware of the situation and that he simply made a bad investment in the (fraudulent) company in the middle of this shitshow. And he's clearly open to a full investigation. **\[**[**ESPN**](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/%5F/id/46161800/clippers-ballmer-details-affiliation-aspiration-wake-kawhi-leonard-report?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** - As [quipped](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1963246043060961739?ref=spyglass.org): *developing, developing, developing, developing*... **\[**[**YouTube**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vhh%5FGeBPOhs&ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• OpenAI's Custom AI Chip** ****• The Pathetic 'Kiss the Ring' White House Dinner** ****• 'Nano Banana' Helps Gemini Go Viral** ****• Tesla's $1T Pay Package for Elon** ****• "The Robot Are Here"** ****• Superman is Coming Back** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Apple and Google Are So Back URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-and-google-are-so-back/ Last updated: 2025-10-21T08:01:51.000Z There was a time not too long ago, when Apple and Google were two peas in a pod. Steve Jobs was regularly advising Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and then-Google CEO Eric Schmidt was on Apple’s board. When the iPhone launched in 2007, it featured core apps powered by both Google Maps and YouTube. Oh yes, and Google Search was a key pillar of Safari. Probably *the* key pillar. Such a key pillar that while those other partnerships withered, it remains intact today. And that’s especially wild because it survived the complete and utter deterioration of the relationship between the two companies. When Google launch their Android project to the world, and the devices went from looking like BlackBerry copies to iPhone clones, Steve Jobs famously had enough. Not only was Schmidt gone from the board, it was thermonuclear war. That may sound like hyperbole. But it's not. [It's a quote](https://www.pcmag.com/opinions/why-steve-jobs-went-thermonuclear-over-android?ref=spyglass.org): > "I will spend my last dying breath if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple's $40B in the bank, to right this wrong. I'm going to destroy Android, because it's a stolen product. I'm willing to go thermonuclear war on this." I would say that's a pretty strong stance. Jobs felt Google had stabbed Apple in the back. Sadly, Jobs did pass away, tragically far too young, still holding this grudge. As the iPhone/Android wars of the 2010s eventually settled down as the market settled for smartphones. There were iPhone people and there were Android people. Sure, they bickered about green and blue bubbles, but it morphed into more of a Cold War. By the time the Age of AI rose, that war took a backseat to the hot ones. Google was busy fighting those wars while [they fought for their lives](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) as everyone started gunning for the kingdom: [Search](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/). Related, and as mentioned, the Google/Apple Search partnership remained intact throughout all of this. And grew to the point where it’s now *well past $20B a year* that Google pays to their old friend turned enemy. This was, of course, [a focal point](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) of Google’s recent antitrust case. And while there was a real fear on both sides — [but certainly on the side of Apple](https://spyglass.org/appl/) — that this deal would be killed by the court, somehow, [it endured](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/). And now it dovetails perfectly into the [news this week from Mark Gurman at *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-03/apple-plans-ai-search-engine-for-siri-to-rival-openai-google-siri-talks-advance?ref=spyglass.org) that Google is looking like the most likely winner of Apple’s AI business. While the company first partnered with OpenAI to augment Siri, over the past year it has become clear that Siri itself was the problem. To be clear, [that was clear](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) to everyone outside of Cupertino [long before that](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/), but they [got the message this year](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). Heads rolled. [Teams shuffled](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/). And Apple looked themselves in the mirror and realized they could not do this themselves. And so [a great AI bake off ensued](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/). While OpenAI seemed like the obvious front-runner given the existing relationship, early reports from Gurman [indicated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-30/apple-weighs-replacing-siri-s-ai-llms-with-anthropic-claude-or-openai-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org) that the Apple team actually [favored Anthropic’s models](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/). But there was a problem. Perhaps 1.5 billion of them. As in, the amount of money Anthropic was apparently asking for in order for Apple to use Claude. Given that the amount was more than all but one acquisition Apple has ever made, there was probably always a zero percent chance Apple was going to go for that. Enter Google. The one [leader in AI](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) that is not technically a startup undoubtedly has a lot more flexibility when it comes to such deals. And that includes, apparently, making a model that Apple can run on their own Private Cloud Compute servers. (It undoubtedly helps that some of these servers may actually run in Google’s Cloud.) Google is clearly in it to win it, with regard to the AI business of their old friend. And now, with the Search deal intact, this makes all the sense in the world. Because it sure sounds like Apple is viewing this updated Siri project as [the future of search](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) on their devices. Why not stick with the partner you’ve had since the iPhone was born? The one you can trust not to crash. Sure, there are undoubtedly privacy concerns — hence the request to run these models on your own servers — but there aren’t the same types of concerns as you might have with an AI “startup”. And again, Apple already deals with these with the Search deal. And so Apple and Google are back, sitting in that tree… Will it last? I mean, it depends on way too many factors to say right now. Including, by the way, sealing an *actual* deal and not just a deal to "evaluate and test" which is what the report states right now. But assuming that gets done, Google now also has to know that Apple is intending to do [this whole AI thing](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) on their own [at some point](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/). They'd be going into this eyes wide open this time. It does lead to the obvious question of what’s in this for Google? But the answer may be tied to that ongoing and all-important Search relationship. And perhaps there’s some level of data Apple would be willing to share from their billions of devices back to Google to further refine their models — anonymized, of course. And there’s probably money. Just probably not $1.5B worth. Also, maybe Apple just gives Google a discount on the money due for Search rev share? I sort of love this for them. Both of them. Imagine an iPhone largely powered by Gemini. The Pixel team can’t love this notion, [but Jimmy Fallon will be](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/) totally [stoked regardless](https://www.threads.com/@chadptorres/post/DNmA15NSYPW?xmt=AQF0O05PQN210A2-NSKJ7qXyyNnqngrlA8qLVx4oS-bmFQ&ref=spyglass.org). And it’s the right move for Google. The iPhone is still the iPhone. The Pixel is not the iPhone. And for Apple. Siri is still Siri. Siri is not Gemini. We are so back. They are so back. ### Signal: Stock Performance Remedies 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-stock-performance-remedies/ Last updated: 2025-09-04T18:31:59.000Z Well, so much for Google being [undervalued](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/). The stock rose over 9% yesterday on the news that they [basically won](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) (from a [remedy perspective](https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/)) the antitrust trial [they lost](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/). Over $200B in market cap added means they too are closing in on the $3T mark. When [I wrote my post on June 4](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/), the stock was trading at $168/share. It closed yesterday at $231/share. To be clear, I don't own shares in Google – despite having worked there for over a decade – but I probably should have bought some that day. I can do that now! I do own shares in Apple, and they were up a "mere" 4% on what was arguably just as big of a win for them yesterday. At $3.5T, they're back in the race with Microsoft in terms of market cap now ($3.75). Still a ways behind NVIDIA ($4.15T) though... But no longer a trillion behind! 🎸 Listening to ["Everything in its Right Place" by Radiohead](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUnXxh5U25Y&ref=spyglass.org) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [Instagram is No Longer InstagramThe iPad app – 15 years in the making – makes the priorities clear…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-247.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MRO_107_FINAL_SCRNGRB1_1-copy-H-2025.webp)](https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/) --- ### Others Wrote... ##### [**🧠 What If We’re Doing AI All Wrong?**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-09-03/the-ai-pioneer-trying-to-save-artificial-intelligence-from-big-tech?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org) Ostensibly a profile of Ashish Vaswani – one of the [eight contributors](https://spyglass.org/being-real/#:~:text=8%20Google%20Employees,We%20are%20awesome.%E2%80%9D%20%F0%9F%A4%96) to the seminal '[Attention Is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762?ref=spyglass.org)' paper that launched the transformer and thus, our current Age of AI – this piece by Julia Love also explores the broader concept of what if there's life beyond said transformers in AI? And what if all the current success in AI from ChatGPT on down is blinding everyone to that obvious truth? Well, not everyone, Vaswani, for one, who has pivoted his [Essential AI](https://www.essential.ai/?ref=spyglass.org) company from being focused on productizing the current models to trying to discover new techniques in the pre-training of models. **\[**[**Bloomberg**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-09-03/the-ai-pioneer-trying-to-save-artificial-intelligence-from-big-tech?embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ##### 🎞️ [Is ‘The Wizard of Oz’ at Sphere the Future of Cinema?](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/movies/wizard-of-oz-sphere-review.html?ref=spyglass.org) More of a meta review than an actual review by Alissa Wilkinson, she hits on a number of interesting points and ideas. First and foremost, this experience isn't really a movie, it's more like a performance or show adapted from a movie – right down to the fact that they cut out nearly 30 minutes of the original. And yes, all the AI work done to expand and enhance the visuals to fit the new screen – but that too makes it less a movie, which has been an art form about framing; this removes that element almost entirely because the visuals are wrapped around you. In that way, it's more like VR or what Apple has been starting to do with ["Spatial" movies](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) and ["Immersive Video"](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-metallica-concert/). It's interesting, but different. But there are a lot of questions about altering old art into such formats that people will assume is just a "port" of the original. While they're both big screens, [this is](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) [*not* IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/). **\[**[**NYT**](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/movies/wizard-of-oz-sphere-review.html?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Google TPUs Taking on NVIDIA** ****• ReMarkable's New Note Taking Device** ****• Atlassian Buys The Browser Company** ****• The Sexy Celeb AI Bot Epidemic** ****• Bond, Young Bond** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Instagram is No Longer Instagram URL: https://spyglass.org/instagram-is-no-longer-instagram/ Last updated: 2025-10-17T07:24:59.000Z I was there Gandalf. I was there 15 years ago. [The day Instagram launched](https://techcrunch.com/2010/10/06/instagram-launch/?ref=spyglass.org). Actually, [quite a bit](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/20/instagram/?ref=spyglass.org) [before that](https://techcrunch.com/2010/03/05/burbn-funding/?ref=spyglass.org). I was [the 28th user of the service](https://parislemon.com/post/20833947117/one-burbn-one-scotch-one-beer?ref=spyglass.org), at least as far as ID numbers go. There are now *billions*. A few months before then, there was another launch. The iPad. It was a lot like an iPhone but with a big, beautiful screen. The type you might, say, like to look at pictures on. The timing was perfect. And then. Nothing. Rumor grew of a shadow in the App Store, whispers of a nameless build. And then the company perceived its time had now come. It abandoned startup life. But something happened then the app did not intend. It was picked up by the most unlikely creature imaginable: Facebook. And yet that social network with seemingly infinite resources refused to commit any of them to building a version of Instagram tailored to larger screens. Oh, on the web, sure. That version sucked. We waited. And waited. And waited. Until today. Almost exactly 15 years after the service first launched to the world – *they waited 15 years but couldn't wait a few more weeks to make for a fun story?* – we now have a version of Instagram tailored for the iPad. And... it's sort of crap. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-03-at-10.45.35---PM-4.png) I mean, I don't know what it is, but it's not really Instagram. There's nothing "insta" or "gram" about it. It opens into Reels. You know the TikTok competitor that Meta [keeps trying to make happen](https://500ish.com/instagram-doth-pivot-too-much-2c5266ff0b71?ref=spyglass.org). And has for years. But now time is of the essence with TikTok itself still surrounded by [uncertainty](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/). Once it's acquired by whomever [bestows upon Donald Trump](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) [the best fealty payment](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) it may be too late. Meta [needs to](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) shove Reels in front of everyones' face right now. Pictures be damned. Instagram is now a viral video app. It should probably have a new name? So much for [Reels getting its own app](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/), I guess. It has now fully infected Instagram. It's like the [eyeball monster thing](https://avp.fandom.com/wiki/Trypanohyncha%5FOcellus?ref=spyglass.org) in *Alien: Earth* that has taken over its sheep host. Yes, yes, you can find the photos feed. [It took me a minute](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lxxfun6nd22u?ref=spyglass.org) because it's [buried](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lxxgg43rk227?ref=spyglass.org) in the second tab that looks like it should be for discovering friends but instead is for discovering Instagram, apparently. Once I found it, I started scrolling, thinking I could open up the images to take full advantage of the big, beautiful iPad screen. And nope.[1](#one) Because they simply no longer give a shit about such things. Photos on Instagram are now an annoyance to Meta because they get in the way of [a more lucrative form of engagement](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/). You get the sense they continue to tolerate them simply because they have to, for now, as they die a slow death. They're clearly not-too-subtly being shoved into a desk drawer... [You can now do about 300 things on Instagram](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/), but viewing pictures is probably number 200 on that list. And *posting* photos is more like number 299. One imagines that soon it will all [just be AI slop](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/). You don't even have to squint to see it. [Meta wants this](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/). It is their [destiny](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/). [Bots talking to bots](https://500ish.com/bots-thanking-bots-cdd467cdd18b?ref=spyglass.org) and ads being surfaced to them. Ads written by bots for bots. Anyway, thanks for the app, Instagram. Finally. You can keep it. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/5LH2WQELRFBYVMM2KLLGTVQ6DQ.jpeg) [Meta Shoves More Shit Into IGReposts and Snap-ish Maps add new problems & cruft to Instagram…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-244.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_instagram_logo_surrounded_by_sewage_--v_7_6a850c5b-9d89-4f2f-96aa-7be93bcf4e6f_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/) [Without Instagram, Meta is ScrewedAnd clearly knows it, hence the lobbying and “OG Facebook” nonsense…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-246.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_person_scrolling_on_their_phone_cartoon_--ar_169_--pr_c59e6f51-ba66-44b8-aaa8-ea42a6d68d74_1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/) [Meta Is Unbundling... AgainThe strategy behind the stand-alone apps for Reels and Meta AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-245.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_facebook_icon_unpacking_a_giant_box_of_stuff_throwing_9466aef8-0e0c-412d-8076-73fd5c8720b0_2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) ## Spyglass Signal A daily newsletter by M.G. Siegler Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Sent from afar on weekdays... --- 1 You can pinch-to-zoom on images, but they don't stay that way. [↩](#) ### Signal: The Google Antitrust Nuance 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-the-google-antitrust-nuance/ Last updated: 2025-09-03T17:41:50.000Z Ask and ye shall receive... [Just yesterday](https://spyglass.org/signal-waiting-on-a-remedy/), I used this area of the newsletter to wonder out loud where those remedies were in the Google Search antitrust case – might they be about to drop? Sure enough, a few hours later, [they dropped](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1436.0.pdf?ref=spyglass.org). [I wrote up some initial thoughts](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) last night, but thinking and [reading about it](https://spyglass.org/signal-waiting-on-a-remedy/) more today, it's even more apparent just how big of a win this was for Google. Yes, they have to give up some search data to rivals, but they're undoubtedly going to fight that aspect – if nothing else, that seems like it will be [a logistical nightmare](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/02/technology/google-antitrust-case-ruling.html?ref=spyglass.org) to try to handle. Probably far more so than "simply" filing an appeal and potentially pushing out any implementation. In fact, the only bigger winner than Google in [their antitrust loss](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) (lol) was Apple. Because no one wants to lose *$20B+ in profit a year* overnight. And especially not [when Services are such a big part](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) of your growth story going forward. That would have been a massive hole in Apple's balance sheet. Now it's more money they can, [but won't](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/), spend on AI. Sorry, the biggest winner is Mozilla. In that now they won't suddenly drop dead. In all seriousness, reading over Judge Amit Mehta's remarks, it seems pretty clear that he understood both the nuance of the various situations (such as with Apple and Mozilla – removing Google's payments wouldn't have changed Google's status, it just [would have saved *Google* a ton of money](https://spyglass.org/appl/)) and recognizing his own limitations in trying to extrapolate out what would happen in AI. No one knows what will happen, not even the experts, it's all moving far too fast, as he notes. And as much as [Tim Wu may wish](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/opinion/google-antitrust-remedy-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) that the Justice Department had a [Pre-Crime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-crime?ref=spyglass.org) division, you [sort of have to](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) litigate in the world that exists, [not the one you fear will exist](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/). The best Judge Mehta could do was put in place controls to make it easier to see and take action if Google does indeed leverage the Search monopoly to take control of the AI market. But as of now, it seems like the market is doing its job in that regard. As much as competitors and opponents may not like that, he made the right calls. [Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google LostChrome stays. Payments stay. Exclusive placement goes. Some Search data goes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-242.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-2--2025--11_05_30-PM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Quote... > "The first Trump administration sued Google to restore competition for millions of Americans subjected to Google’s monopoly abuses. Today, the second Trump administration has won a remedy to do just that." – **Gail Slater**, the current DoJ antitrust chief, [taking a victory lap](https://www.theverge.com/policy/717087/google-search-remedies-ruling-chrome?ref=spyglass.org) in her statement on the Google antitrust ruling. Never mind the remedies or, you know, that the actual *trial and* *ruling* happened under that *other guy*. I haven't seen so much retconning [since the last *Star Wars* trilogy](https://500ish.com/the-retcon-of-the-jedi-33a8088216a6?ref=spyglass.org). --- ### Couple Thoughts... **💰** [**OpenAI Buying Statsig** ](https://www.theverge.com/openai/769325/openai-statsig-acquisition-executive-moves?ref=spyglass.org)– Look at that, an actual acquisition of an entire company! Well, sort of. It still looks more like an "acquihire" of sorts – the $1.1B price tag is [flat to the last round](https://www.geekwire.com/2025/openai-acquires-statsig-for-1-1b-names-ceo-to-key-exec-role-in-surprise-exit-for-seattle-area-unicorn/?ref=spyglass.org), giving those investors their money back (with upside potential as it's all in OpenAI stock) – but at least it's not a "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/tag/hackquisition/)" where they're pretending like the startup will be just fine without its founder and other key talent – they're *all* coming over to OpenAI (pending regulatory approval). And that's good because it sure seems like a lot of Statsig's business beyond OpenAI was their chief rivals, and we know what happens in those situations – the same thing [that's happening to Scale.ai](https://spyglass.org/signal-cable-bundles-of-joy/#:~:text=%E2%9A%96%EF%B8%8F%20Meta%27s%20Scale,%5BTechCrunch%5D) and [what was](https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/) happening [to Windsurf](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-quiet-build-to-wwdc?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=To%20follow%20up%20on%20the%20item%20from%20a%20couple%20days%20ago%2C%20one%20of%20Anthropic%E2%80%99s%20co%2Dfounder%20admitted%20the%20obvious%3A%20they%E2%80%99re%20not%20enabling%20the%20newest%20models%20for%20Windsurf%20because%20Windsurf%20is%20selling%20to%20their%20main%20rival%2C%20OpenAI.%20Duh.%20%5BTechCrunch%5D). (Related, there's also undoubtedly a strategic reason for doing this deal if, say, Anthropic and Meta can no longer use Statsig...) Anyway, you don't have to read between too many lines to see that this was also largely about bringing in Vijaye Raji, a longtime Facebooker who worked alongside OpenAI's new ["CEO of Applications"](https://spyglass.org/openai-two-ceos/) Fidji Simo. He'll now be her "CTO of Applications", [continuing the build out](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) of OpenAI, the product company. To make way for that, Kevin Weil, the Chief Product Officer, [is shifting](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/02/openai-acquires-product-testing-startup-statsig-and-shakes-up-its-leadership-team/?ref=spyglass.org) to work on a new group focused on science applications of the tech. **\[**[**Verge**](https://www.theverge.com/openai/769325/openai-statsig-acquisition-executive-moves?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** **📽️** [**A Studio/Theater Deal in France**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/canal-french-cinema-giant-ugc-1236359172/?ref=spyglass.org) – Canal+ buying a one-third stake in UGC, one of France's largest movie theater chains, with an option for a full takeover, is the latest and probably inevitable move towards [saving cinemas](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). To say the world has changed since the [Paramount Decree](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United%5FStates%5Fv.%5FParamount%5FPictures,%5FInc.?ref=spyglass.org) – which obviously had no bearing on France anyway – broke the studio/theater relationship is an understatement. Movie theaters are no longer the dominant form of distribution, streaming services are – and basically every studio now owns one of those. Besides Sony – [which recently bought the Alamo Drafthouse theater chain](https://spyglass.org/sony-dont-fuck-this-up/)! That was smart as the footprint is relatively small, but trying to buy something like AMC would be a nightmare. They just have way [too many screens](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) for the modern age. That's why it makes more sense for, say, Paramount to buy someone like, [say, IMAX](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/). Netflix has bought a few individual theaters (to help ensure their films get Oscar consideration), but might they make a bigger push here? [They'll say "no"](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) but they always say "no" [before they say "yes"](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/). They're already building their 'Netflix Houses' [in the carcasses of malls](https://spyglass.org/netflix-house-and-chill/), and most malls have movie theaters... **\[**[**THR**](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/canal-french-cinema-giant-ugc-1236359172/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Anthropic's New Round** ****• Tesla's Flaccid New 'Master Plan'** ****• Gemini Coming Home** ****• Yet More Apple AI Defections** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google Lost URL: https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/ Last updated: 2025-10-14T18:02:23.000Z [I had a sneaking suspicion today](https://spyglass.org/signal-waiting-on-a-remedy/) might be the day where Judge Amit Mehta would come back with the remedies in Google's antitrust trial. [Sure enough](https://www.techmeme.com/250902/p34?ref=spyglass.org#a250902p34)... And sure enough, [those remedies](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1436.0.pdf?ref=spyglass.org) are pretty much exactly what I expected and have been [writing about](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) [for months](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) – [over a year](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/). While any deals to make Google the exclusive search engine on partners' devices and services are going away, the payments that Google makes to those partners aren't necessarily – so long as they're not to ensure *exclusive* default placement.[1](#one) It felt like everyone was looking past this nuanced but important distinction. So I spelled it out, once again, [in my post last week](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/): > [I will just continue to note](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) that while the default placement payments may go away, I'm not sure the ability for Google to pay Apple for traffic acquisition would or should go away. That's important because it points to a world where Google is still paying Apple billions of dollars annually, assuming customers keep using Google on Apple devices even if it's not the default. I feel like this isn't being talked about nearly enough! As linked in there, I've been noting the very real possibility since day one when Google lost the antitrust case just over a year ago. [As I wrote back then](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/): > The Apple element of this is arguably just as interesting as the Google element, because as everyone is well aware by now, a massive percentage of Apple's [now-all-important Services business](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) – not to mention overall profit – is their search deal with Google. To the tune of $20B+ a year. > > While Su suggest the revenue sharing would stop, I imagine it would just change. No more paying for default placement in lump sums and instead perhaps paying out a share for actual usage. The argument here might be that this would still give Google too much power because they could afford to pay more than anyone else, but an equalized market rate would incentivize product over payment. > > Regardless, the Occam's razor read of such a remedy suggests a situation that would perhaps not change all that much. Because it wouldn't dictate that Android phone makers or Apple make another search engine the default, it would likely instead lead to more pop-ups asking people to explicitly make a choice. And Google would still have a huge market advantage there, simply thanks to brand awareness, if nothing else. And if companies were allowed to bid on placement in such a screen, the effect would likely be even more muted. So yeah, this is a huge win for Apple, but perhaps even more so for Mozilla, which may very well have died without any sort of traffic acquisition payments from Google. And that's exactly what the judge rightfully recognized: > "Cutting off payments from Google almost certainly will impose substantial — in some cases, crippling — downstream harms to distribution partners, related markets, and consumers, which counsels against a broad payment ban." Not having to pay Apple or Mozilla or others for the search traffic they were naturally going to be sending anyway regardless of the placement would have been a huge win for... *Google*. [As I wrote back in January](https://spyglass.org/appl/) when Apple tried to inject itself into the case – to ensure the court didn't hand such a massive win to Google in an antitrust case they *lost*: > It's a sort of weird, "why buy the cow, when you're getting the milk for free?" situation the government would set up here. Only it's more like, "you're not allowed to buy the cow, you simply must enjoy the milk for free." So yeah, the judge remedied that! And so Eddy Cue and Tim Cook can breathe a huge sigh of relief tonight. And Mozilla can just breathe tonight. But so too can Google. This case is about them, after all. And while any exclusive default placement deals are dead and they will have to start sharing some search data with rivals (which they already have to do to some degree in the EU, and it hasn't really mattered), the government isn't getting the big trophy it sought here: Chrome. Again, [from day one](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) when it was announced the government would try to go after Google's browser ([which I also suspected they might do beforehand](https://spyglass.org/the-google-break-up/)), I laid out a pretty clear picture as to why Chrome wasn't going anywhere. [It just made almost no sense on a number of fronts](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/). Chrome is valuable to Google – [insanely valuable to Google](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/) – but not in the ways it would be to others, [sorry OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/). And [nice try, Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/). And while Google was perplexingly trying their hardest to make a sell-off make more sense to the judge – by, um, starting to [bake Gemini into Chrome](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/)! – the reality is that AI is still too nascent a field, with too much competition for the court to do much here. [Sorry, Tim Wu](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/). This will have to be litigated in hindsight, [as is the usual case](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/), it seems. But it also seems like there's no way to know how this all plays out right now. And, in fact, it feels like if anything, AI is proving that market forces work even when the government doesn't get involved. [Just as happened to Microsoft way back when](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/), despite the government constantly taking credit there. Google Search is in the process of [being disrupted](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/). Not by the antitrust case or any of these remedies, but by a [new technology naturally rising](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/). Google can [keep insisting](https://spyglass.org/apple-safari-google-search/) this isn't [happening](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/), but just [follow their actions](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/). Those say all you need to know. It's all Gemini, all the time, everywhere. And if the placement in Search helps Gemini gain [a dominant position](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) in AI, well, I suspect the judge will revisit this whole situation. But it's still a very big "if". **Disclosure: I worked at Google for over a decade as a partner at their VC fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/09/Gemini_Generated_Image_7lke9u7lke9u7lke-1-1.png) [Let’s Not Pass ‘Go’ Just Yet...A few thoughts on the Google monopoly ruling…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-234.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Aug-06-Gavel-with-Google-Logo-1-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) [Chrome AloneIf Google were to sell off Chrome, who would benefit? Anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-235.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--57--8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) [Forget the Fate of Chrome, Focus on the Fate of the BrowserIn debating what undoubtedly won’t happen, we’re looking past some key things that are -- and might…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-236.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-22-11.57.12---A-surreal-illustration-of-the-Google-Chrome-logo-being-squeezed--with-the-iconic-multicolored-sphere--red--green--yellow--and-blue--appearing-slightly-3-16.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) [Chrome Is Worth $100B+ to GoogleAnd so you’d have to imagine that’s what they’d be seeking in a forced sale (which isn’t going to happen, but humor me)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-238.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-30--2025--04_12_08-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/) [Google Lost a Search Antitrust Case. Will Gemini Take the Blame?As the remedies loom, AI is top of mind…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-237.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_handcuffed_in_court_--v_7_0e5126aa-82bd-4938-bb00-12c06e9e2a5a_3-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) --- 1 One bit of nuance here is that Google can apparently still strike deals for placement with partners, but these deals can't be *exclusive* – i.e. they can't stop competitors' services from also being offered by those partners. Perhaps most notably, this applies to AI offerings going forward as well. ### Signal: Waiting on a Remedy 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-waiting-on-a-remedy/ Last updated: 2025-09-03T17:46:52.000Z Interesting that we're now into September and we still haven't heard what the remedy will be in the Google antitrust case ([the first one](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/)). The court was guiding towards a decision in August, but clearly has needed more time which is... interesting. Not sure if that's good or bad for Google. Perhaps it's [all about the ever-evolving AI situation](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/) and not wanting to make the wrong call for the future there. Or [maybe](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) they're [debating](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) the [price](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/) of [Chrome](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/). Or the impact here [on Apple](https://spyglass.org/appl/) (and Mozilla). Or maybe they're just waiting until right after Labor Day... Happy [Great British Bake Off Day](https://thegreatbritishbakeoff.co.uk/?ref=spyglass.org) to those who celebrate... 🇬🇧🍰🥖🥧 🎸 Listening to ["Remedy" by The Black Crowes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYyRLTveFJQ&ref=spyglass.org) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### I Wrote... [A Standing Ovation Epidemic Breaks Out in VeniceThere is no known cure…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-225.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_httpss.mj.run_3ySJFW7Rzg_this_but_anime_--ar_169_--v_7_f460f180-42d8-4821-bcff-f0e51444b29f_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/a-standing-ovation-epidemic/) [We Don’t Need Another iPod for Streaming TV, We Need An iTunesOne service to rule them all. And in the darkness, bind them.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-224.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_watercolor_painting_of_the_streaming_TV_set-top_box_flo_f463a1d0-164e-4220-b037-6fd359b253cd_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/) --- ### I Link... ##### **⚛️** [**The Quantum Computer Race**](https://www.ft.com/content/2fe4b1a3-b0d3-403a-bdd3-f033b3e5e56a?ref=spyglass.org) IBM thinks they can have a viable system by the end of the decade. Amazon thinks it's more like *15 to 30 years away*. Good to know that with the AI/AGI/Superintelligence debate [far from settled](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/), we have a new technological debate to argue about. It's also interesting that the target cost for such machines – Google thinks they can get it built for $1B – is significantly less than the AI systems (right now, it's costing quite a bit more in the R&D phase, obviously). And unlike AI, where everyone (well, at least the big players) are doing the same basic thing right now with LLMs, there are a few different approaches to quantum being explored – Microsoft and IBM think Google's approach won't work, or won't work as *soon* as their approaches (and vice versa). **\[**[**FT**](https://www.ft.com/content/2fe4b1a3-b0d3-403a-bdd3-f033b3e5e56a?ref=spyglass.org) **🔒\]** ##### **📰** [The Atlantic Envy](https://www.thewrap.com/the-atlantic-hiring-spree-layoffs-analysis/?ref=spyglass.org) In an age when other storied publications are [kowtowing](https://spyglass.org/washington-post-missing-spine/) or cutting ([or both](https://spyglass.org/washington-post-ai-idea/)), it's... *something* that *The Atlantic's* model of paying to hoover up talent appears to be working. No one wants to lose millions – even billionaires – but I'm sort of surprised that more aren't following Laurene Powell Jobs' playbook. And just as importantly, *sticking with it*, for the undoubtedly long-term legacy benefits. And, apparently, it's working, even perhaps as a business. *The Atlantic* isn't losing millions – I still don't fully understand how *WaPo* is [closing in on](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-018/#:~:text=The%20Washington%20Post,changes.%20%5BIntelligencer%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) *$100M in losses* a year – but is *making money* with their model. I can't imagine most could make that work in our current age, but still, there's a playbook to try. **\[**[**TheWrap**](https://www.thewrap.com/the-atlantic-hiring-spree-layoffs-analysis/?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** ##### **🌅** [**The Case For Doing Everything Early**](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/a-secret-to-a-long-healthy-life-do?ref=spyglass.org) Some compelling thoughts from Derek Thompson, kicked off by his own recent usage of an Oura ring (something [I've started wearing myself again recently](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169560324/i-quote?ref=spyglass.org)). At the highest level, it's interesting to remember that a lot of modern life has been about leveraging technology to allow us to do more things throughout a day whereas the "natural" world dictated that you had to do most things early – making hay when the sun shines, in the very literal sense. But I also appreciate Thompson's tone which is basically, "look, you should do what you want and what makes you happy." I've always appreciated Thompson's more nuanced takes on provocative topics. And I swear I'm not just saying this because [I was a small part ](https://www.vox.com/2017/2/15/14629310/full-transcript-hit-makers-author-derek-thompson-recode-media-podcast?ref=spyglass.org)of his book, [*Hit Makers*](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hit-Makers-Science-Popularity-Distraction/dp/110198032X?ref=spyglass.org), back in the day... **\[**[**Derek Thompson**](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/a-secret-to-a-long-healthy-life-do?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Hear You... So far, a lot of the feedback about the new format has been about the blue – "**very blue"** – background of the email. A few like it! But many more aren't so sure. I obviously was going for something more distinctive in the inbox ([the version on the site](https://spyglass.org/signal-cable-bundles-of-joy/) remains nice and white – with far better fonts, I might add!) I am monitoring the situation and will figure out what to hue... --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• The Rising Cost of AI** ****• Sam Altman Saying Things** ****• YouTubers as Sportscasters** ****• Walmart's Streaming Options** ****• Cracker Barrel Logo!** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### A Standing Ovation Epidemic Breaks Out in Venice URL: https://spyglass.org/a-standing-ovation-epidemic/ Last updated: 2025-09-02T06:39:33.000Z I'm sorry Venice, I wasn't aware of your game. You see, I was used to Cannes being the film festival pace car [when it came to standing ovations](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-at-cannes/). The magical place where headlines about 7-minute ovations magically transformed into 10-minute ovations. And perhaps seeing those updated headlines, mere 9-minute ovations got upgraded to 11-minute ovations. To which the 10-minute ovations (which were 7-minute ovations) got upgraded to 11-minute ovations too! This, in turn, led the 9-minute-turned-11-minute ovations to jump to 13! But all of that was 2024\. As we know with Hollywood, [the numbers must always go up](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) – even if [they're not actually going up](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org). Right now there's a battle brewing between *The Testament Of Ann Lee* and *The Smashing Machine* in Venice. First, to level-set... Cate Blanchett, who is without question one of the greatest actresses of all time, continues to underperform when it comes to applause. She was seen at Cannes last year getting a mere 4-minute ovation for her role in *Rumours*. This year at Venice: [Cate Blanchett Beams as Jim Jarmusch’s Family Tale ‘Father Mother Sister Brother’ Scores 5-Minute Venice Ovation‘Father Mother Sister Brother,’ Jim Jarmusch‘s family drama starring Cate Blanchett earned a five-minute standing ovation at Venice Film Festival.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-36.png)VarietyEllise Shafer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-2233038179.jpg)](https://variety.com/2025/film/festivals/cate-blanchett-father-mother-sister-brother-venice-premiere-1236497015/?ref=spyglass.org) An improvement yes, but wait until you see where we end up here. Next, I'm not saying George Clooney got some sympathy claps for [showing up sick as a dog](https://people.com/george-clooney-backs-out-venice-film-festival-appearances-reportedly-ill-health-11799318?ref=spyglass.org) in Venice, but well: [Adam Sandler and George Clooney Make Venice Swoon With 8.5-Minute Standing Ovation for Hollywood Bromance ‘Jay Kelly’“Jay Kelly,” a comedic drama starring George Clooney and Adam Sandler, premiered at the Venice Film Festival on Thursday.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-37.png)VarietyRamin Setoodeh![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/george-adam.jpg)](https://variety.com/2025/film/festivals/george-clooney-adam-sandler-jay-kelly-premiere-venice-1236491961/?ref=spyglass.org) Jude Law-as-Vladimir Putin? Now we're starting to cook with fire... [Jude Law Commands Venice as Putin in ‘The Wizard of the Kremlin,’ Earning 10-Minute Ovation“The Wizard of the Kremlin,” starring Jude Law as Vladimir Putin, earned a 10-minute standing ovation at this year’s Venice Film Festival.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-38.png)VarietyAlex Ritman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-2233022527.jpg)](https://variety.com/2025/film/festivals/jude-law-putin-wizard-of-the-kremlin-ovation-venice-premiere-1236492820/?ref=spyglass.org) But wait, while 10-minutes seems strong, I mean, [*Megalopolis* got 10-minutes at Cannes last year](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-revisited/) (or 7-minutes, depending on what you read). [*Megalopolis*](https://spyglass.org/megaflopolis/)! [Not a good sign](https://spyglass.org/megalopolis-flops/). So let's upgrade that: [Paul Dano/Jude Law-Starrer ‘The Wizard Of The Kremlin’ Demands Nearly 12-Minute Ovation – Venice Film FestivalOlivier Assayas returned to the Venice Film Festival competition today with ‘The Wizard of the Kremlin’, receiving an 11-minute, 42-second ovation.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-39.png)DeadlineMelanie Goodfellow![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/P1022XMQ-e1756662408388.jpg)](https://deadline.com/2025/08/wizard-of-the-kremlin-ovation-jude-law-paul-dano-venice-1236502442/?ref=spyglass.org) That's better. I mean" nearly" sounds a lot like 11-minutes, but we're in a good range now. That could have "won" Cannes last year – at least until *The Substance* went from 9 to 11 to... 13... 13 you say? [Jacob Elordi Moved to Tears as ‘Frankenstein’ Earns 13-Minute Standing Ovation at Venice Film FestivalJacob Elordi was moved to tears at the 2025 Venice International Film Festival. The actor received a standing ovation for the world premiere of his upcoming movie ‘Frankenstein’. The applause lasted for 13 minutes, which is the longest of this year’s festival.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-180x180-1.png)PEOPLERaven Brunner![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Jacob-Elordi-Frankenstein-red-carpet-083125-76f4e88ad194487c90a32f2319e9cba1.jpg)](https://people.com/jacob-elordi-moved-to-tears-as-frankestein-earns-13-minute-standing-ovation-11801169?ref=spyglass.org) Elordi was last seen at Cannes getting a 4-minute ovation for *Oh, Canada*. 4-minutes! How embarrassing (though a bit better than the original 3-minute report, sheesh). Wait, no, he actually *skipped* that premiere because he was filming... [you guessed it](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/). And now, no one's star seems to be rising faster... [Guillermo Del Toro and Jacob Elordi Break Down in Tears as ‘Frankenstein’ Wows Venice Film Festival With 14-Minute Standing OvationThe ’Frankenstein’ auteur was joined on the Lido by his stars Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi, Christoph Waltz, Mia Goth and others for Saturday’s red carpet world premiere.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-22.png)The Hollywood ReporterChris Gardner![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-2232838115.jpg)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/frankenstein-movie-guillermo-del-toro-netflix-venice-festival-1236357615/?ref=spyglass.org) 14! Elordi in tears! Del Toro has done it again! Though we still have a ways to go to [the mythical *22-minute ovation* that *Pan’s Labyrinth* got](https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/cannes-2025-standing-ovations-longest-applause-record-b2757150.html?ref=spyglass.org) at Cannes in 2006\. With inflation, that's like 45 minutes in 2025 ovation time. Still, we can get more out of Elordi and *Frankenstein*, right? Right. [Guillermo Del Toro’s ‘Frankenstein’ Receives Monster 15-Minute Ovation – Venice Film FestivalPlaying to a very enthusiastic crowd at Venice International Film Festival, Guillermo Del Toro’s ‘Frankenstein’ was greeted by a 15-minute ovation.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-40.png)DeadlineNancy Tartaglione![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Frankenstein-Venice-2232904954.jpg)](https://deadline.com/2025/08/frankenstein-guillermo-del-toro-15-ovation-venice-1236501987/?ref=spyglass.org) It's alive!!! 15! What's that? Can you smell... [Dwayne Johnson’s ‘The Smashing Machine’ Delivers TKO at Venice World Premiere, 15-Minute OvationBenny Safdie’s A24 film casts Johnson as legendary mixed martial arts and UFC fighter Mark Kerr, who was in attendance at the Venice premiere, as was star Emily Blunt.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-23.png)The Hollywood ReporterChris Gardner![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-2233229791.jpg)](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dwayne-johnson-the-smashing-machine-movie-a24-safdie-1236358240/?ref=spyglass.org) Yes, The Rock also scored 15-minutes. At least until... [Amanda Seyfried Weeps as ‘The Testament of Ann Lee’ Shakes Up Venice With 15-Minute Ovation“The Testament of Ann Lee,” Amanda Seyfried’s new movie in which she plays the founder of the Shakers, earned a 15-minute ovation at Venice.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-41.png)VarietyEllise Shafer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/amanda-3.jpg)](https://variety.com/2025/film/festivals/amanda-seyfried-venice-testament-of-ann-lee-premiere-1236503241/?ref=spyglass.org) THREE movies with 15-minute ovations? This cannot stand, because no one should stand and clap for that long. Instead, they should stand for... [Amanda Seyfried Gets Emotional As ‘The Testament Of Ann Lee’ Shakes Up Venice With 15 1/2-Minute OvationThe Testament of Ann Lee had its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival where the movie starring Amanda Seyfried received a 15 1/2-minute ovation.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-42.png)DeadlineNada Aboul Kheir![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/The-Testament-Of-Ann-Lee-Venice.jpg)](https://deadline.com/2025/09/amanda-seyfried-the-testament-of-ann-lee-ovation-venice-1236502966/?ref=spyglass.org) 15-and-a-half minutes! We have a winner. Hold up. Who is that on the top rope... [Dwayne Johnson A Smash In Venice As ‘The Smashing Machine’ Gets 15 1/2-Minute OvationDwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt and Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine got a 15 1/12-minute ovation after its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-43.png)DeadlineNancy Tartaglione![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Smashing-Machine-Venice-1.jpg)](https://deadline.com/2025/09/dwayne-johnson-the-smashing-machine-ovation-venice-1236502977/?ref=spyglass.org) 15-and-a-half ALSO! What a comeback to a very precise measurement of time. Just one second less and *The Smashing Machine* gets taken down by *The Testament of Ann Lee*. Phew. Close one. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Ovation InflationWhat is going on at Cannes and \*who\* is counting?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-219.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT--1--2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-at-cannes/) [Ovation Inflation RevisitedA lot of noise and breathless headlines mean... not much.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-220.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_men_in_tuxedos_clapping_in_standing_ovation_--ar_21_--p_3c62888e-72c9-4f9d-bc78-9c2d9dde2935_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ovation-inflation-revisited/) ### Signal: Cable Bundles of Joy 📧 URL: https://spyglass.org/signal-cable-bundles-of-joy/ Last updated: 2025-09-01T14:55:28.000Z Well, I did the math. And it's not pretty. The amount I spend on streaming services each month is... a lot. Still, it's not quite as insane as I feared relative to cable and the [new digital variants like YouTube TV](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) – especially since the latter [keeps jacking up prices](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/) without any choice to pay less for less content. Mainly, the new system is just a mess of management, until it all inevitably consolidates back into bundles. Which is already happening, naturally. [My Expensive Streaming BundleIt’s less than I thought, but still completely untenable…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-209.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_broken_tv_surrounded_by_money_--ar_169_--v_7_5514853d-d8ac-4c78-ae58-baf6e99f9f71_1.png)](https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/) ****Spyglass Signal** is a [newsletter](https://spyglass.org/newsletter/) sent on weekdays featuring links and commentary from ****M.G. Siegler** on timely topics found around the web. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. --- ### Links... ##### 🇺🇸 [A Year in the Life of Zuckerberg & Trump](https://www.platformer.news/trump-zuckerberg-meta-partnership-eu-dsa-ai-dma/?ref=platformer-newsletter) Casey Newton takes the year anniversary of Trump threatening to have Zuck jailed – *which feels like it was a decade ago* – to look at how the relationship has, [um](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/), [evolved](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/) since [then](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-speech-about-face-book/), [month](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) by [month](https://spyglass.org/do-you-even-tech-bro/). We're probably now just months away from the attempts at [the narrative turn](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=Mark%20Zuckerberg%20unchained,closer%20to%20launch...) about how this was all just pragmatic, etc – moral and ethical unease aside, Zuck's playbook seems to be working, [even now](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/zuckerberg-lobbied-trump-on-digital-taxes-before-tariff-threat?ref=spyglass.org) – as the political winds [shift again](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-046-big-day-yuge-day/#:~:text=It%27s%20easy%20to,love%20to%20know.) with a lame duck flying in the air... **\[**[**Platformer**](https://www.platformer.news/trump-zuckerberg-meta-partnership-eu-dsa-ai-dma/?ref=platformer-newsletter)**\]** ##### **🗣️** [Did OpenAI Break ChatGPT?](https://pod.link/1522960417/episode/MTg5NzA3ZTgtNmU1MC0xMWYwLWFiOTYtMmZiZmE2NjllZDFk?ref=spyglass.org) I was back on Alex Kantrowitz's [*Big Technology*](https://www.bigtechnology.com/?ref=spyglass.org) *Podcast* last Friday to chat through that, the new "open source" AI movement, Apple's new iPhone roadmap, some thoughts on the notion they could outsource more of their AI work, and the new, state-sponsored Intel... **\[**[**Pod Link**](https://pod.link/1522960417/episode/MTg5NzA3ZTgtNmU1MC0xMWYwLWFiOTYtMmZiZmE2NjllZDFk?ref=spyglass.org)**\]** --- ### I Quote... > "I would pay a lot of money to avoid a cocktail party." – **John Malone**, in [a profile](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/business/john-malone-memoir-media-internet.html?ref=spyglass.org) looking back at his legacy shaping the current television landscape – in ways good and bad. While his hands are now mostly [on Warner Bros Discovery](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-part-ii/), he helped shape many other media properties (via TCI [and Liberty](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-008/#:~:text=Somehow%2C%20John%20Malone%20returned.%20As%20%28interim%29%20CEO%20of%20Liberty%20Media.%20How%20very%20Bob%20Iger%20of%20him.%20But%20he%27s%20also%2083%20years%20old.%20Gentleman%2C%20start%20your%20M%26A%20engines!%20%5BNYT%5D)) – even AOL (by talking Bill Gates out of an investment way back when). I also appreciated the part where he used Steve McQueen's *Bullitt* as a weapon in a local cable dispute (which he won). The 84-year-old is now the second largest private land-owner in the US – barely beating out his old friend, Ted Turner (to whom he once lent money for a divorce.) Leading up to the launch of his autobiography, [the *FT* also pulled out](https://www.ft.com/content/3a32fdcb-1248-4721-8269-2867dc5e4d78?ref=spyglass.org) this tidbit: Malone pushed his friend Rupert Murdoch for a WBD/Fox merger, but it seemed too much of a headache trying to bring *CNN* and *Fox News* together under one umbrella. Still, he's pretty certain the "urge to merge" will [win the day](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/) again with tech [moving so aggressively](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) into his world. [Might Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) [come calling](https://spyglass.org/hbo-apple-services/)? **One more thing:** Zuck tried to buy Malone’s Castlemartin Estate in Ireland... > “I told him no, sorry Mark,” smiles Malone. “He said: “I hear it’s the prettiest place in Ireland”. And I said: “Maybe in the world, but it ain’t for sale.” Everything else, is for sale, it seems. --- ### Programming Note... You'll notice a bit of a format shift here. I'm trying a few tweaks as we head towards year 3 of *Spyglass*. After running the newsletter under [the 'Spiral' moniker](https://spiral.spyglass.org/?ref=spyglass.org) for the past few months to allow me to better experiment, I believe I've landed on the format I want to use. More to come on that. For now, feedback welcome. Happy Labor Day to those in the US! 🇺🇸 --- ![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/SPYblue.png) Below, members of [****The Inner Ring**](https://spyglass.org/the-inner-ring/) will find thoughts on: ****• Meta's Sexy Celeb Bots** ****• Meta Outsourcing Their AI** ****• Meta's Scale Situation** ****• The Big Short Comeback** ****• and more...** _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### My Expensive Streaming Bundle URL: https://spyglass.org/expensive-streaming-bundle/ Last updated: 2026-08-25T07:22:37.000Z Watching sports will be interesting for me this fall. Meaning, likely, expensive. This year's football season will be the first since I cancelled YouTube TV (my [vMVPD of choice](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) since I cancelled cable years and years ago). The reason for cancelling both wasn't so much cost as much as it was the complete and utter lack of choice. [The constant YouTube TV price rises](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/) – it's now *far beyond double* what I started out paying for it – just served to highlight the ridiculous reality. If you don't want, say, the 100+ channels that YouTube TV (or cable) offers, you don't have an option to get fewer (and pay less), because that's not how the bundle works. But it should. And while the new "a la carte" offerings from every content provider are clearly more [unwieldy](https://spyglass.org/disney-streaming-bundle/) and undoubtedly untenable for all of them to exist as stand-alones, it's great to have choice! Granted, I basically choose to sign up for all them. And that's insanely expensive as a result. But still, it's the principle. Anyway, with football kicking-off, and clearly not coincidentally, [with ESPN](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) and [Fox's new streaming offerings](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163328874/fox-one-coming-this-fall?ref=spyglass.org) now out there, I thought it was [a good time](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-bundle-of-bills?utm%5Fsource=publication-search) to take stock of my own situation. Here are the streaming services I currently pay for, and how much they cost: - **Disney+/ESPN/Hulu**: $38.99/month - This is the ad-free new bundle - **Netflix**: $24.99/month - This is the 4K/four device version, without ads - **HBO Max**: $20.99/month - 4K, no ads - **Fox One**: $19.99/month - The latest addition just in time for football - **Peacock**: $16.99/month - No ads - **Paramount+**: $12.99/month - No ads - **Apple TV+**: $9.99/month - This is going up to $12.99/month [shortly](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/drinking-the-liquid-glass?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=And%20that%20roll%2Dout%20will%20help%20Apple%20justify%20raising%20the%20price%20point%20of%20TV%2B%20to%20%2412.99%20up%20from%20%249.99.%20Apple%20must%20be%20feeling%20pretty%20confident%20in%20their%20library%20%28and%20churn%20rates%29%20these%20days%20to%20make%20such%20a%20move%20%28though%20the%20bundle%20prices%20remain%20the%20same%29.%20%5B9to5Mac%5D) - **Prime Video**: $8.99/month - I get this as a part of paying for Prime itself – more on this in a minute Okay, I think that's all of them! I honestly may have missed one in there. No, I don't currently subscribe to Starz or AMC+ – though I have in the past! Nor do I buy NFL Redzone or MLB League Pass, etc. At least not yet. And there are also caveats galore in the prices. Notably, as mentioned, I don't technically pay every month for Prime Video because it's included with my Amazon Prime subscription, which I'd have regardless. Likewise, I don't technically pay for Apple TV+ stand-alone because it's a part of the Apple One bundle (including things such as cloud storage) which I pay for. At least one of my credit cards has a deal where they offset the costs of services like HBO Max. And yes, you can get Fox One for cheaper [if you bundle it](https://spyglass.org/espn-fox-one-sports-bundle/) with ESPN's new streaming service, but I don't think you can do that and get the Disney+/Hulu bundle. With all that said, if I was just paying straight-up for these, that's **10 services** (including the 3 in the Disney bundle), which **cost $153.92 a month**. That's $1,847.04 a year. Yes, that's a lot. YouTube TV, with the most recent price raise, is $82.99 a month (though it's $92.98 a month if you get the 4K option, which I had and makes it more comparable to the above options). And that's undoubtedly more than most people pay for cable, though when you add in internet service, it's probably close (though I still have to pay separately for internet service, of course). If I take into account my caveats above, I think the amount I'm actually paying each month is probably closer to $113.95 a month. Which gets us a lot closer to the YouTube TV price – though YouTube TV has ads. If I downgraded to the ad-supported version of these services, it would be very, very close in price. But again, I have far more choice this way and get far more of the content that I actually want and less of what I don't care about (but would have to pay for with YouTube TV or cable). Anyway, it's expensive. But it's not insane. Well, I mean, *it is insane in that I have to pay for and manage ten different streaming services*. But again, choice! Including the choice to "turn off" (i.e. cancel) any of the services I'm not using in any given month. I don't really do this, but I could! Clearly the longer-term solution for this situation is [more bundles](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/amazon-nbcu-peacock-available-prime-video-subscription-1236500831/?ref=spyglass.org). All of these services are probably not going to bundle back up into one mega bundle, but thanks to things like Amazon Prime TV 'Channels', [we're getting closer to that](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/business/media/streaming-tv-subscription-bundle.html?ref=spyglass.org). As such, everyone from Google to Apple is copying that strategy.[1](#one) The problem there is Netflix. While they do [occasionally cut a deal](https://spyglass.org/streamsaver/) to allow their service to be bundled with other offerings, it's clearly always a very targeted attempt to expand their audience and not a way to simplify the situation. Come to think of it, given that Netflix is basically [the new cable](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/) for [many people](https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/), it's sort of weird they haven't approached the other, less popular players, to bundle their services. I suppose Netflix doesn't need to at the moment, but again, that's clearly where all of this [is heading](https://spyglass.org/itunes-for-streaming/), so... I bet they start doing it to some degree. In the meantime, with the [Paramount deal done](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/), we're clearly going to see some level of [streaming consolidation](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/) start happening. Maybe [that's M&A](https://spyglass.org/apple-hbo-warner-bros/) or maybe it's a new partnership for a big bundle. [We'll see](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/). For now, I'll just keep paying for my 10 different streaming services. Sorry, 11\. --- 1 As an aside, it's crazy that there's no YouTube TV + YouTube Premium bundle?! That's it! Another service I pay for: YouTube Premium. But the fact that it's not a part of YouTube TV or again, even a bundle option, seems absolutely wild. From a branding perspective if nothing else! Do the two services named 'YouTube' even know the other exists? It's not clear, which is so very Google. ### AGI is Bananas URL: https://spyglass.org/agi-is-bananas/ Last updated: 2025-08-29T18:45:49.000Z A fun conversation this week on [*TWiT's* Intelligent Machines show](https://twit.tv/shows/intelligent-machines/episodes/834?autostart=false&ref=spyglass.org). We kick off talking through [Google's decidedly smarmy Pixel event](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/). Where yes, the bizarre nature of the production overshadowed anything that was announced. We then shifted gears to [the fate](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) of Chrome. [Will Perplexity be able to buy it?](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) (No.) [What about OpenAI?](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/) (No.) Will the judge force Google to do something with it? [Maybe](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/), in particular if [he's worried](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) they're [already using it](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) to favor Gemini to give Google an advantage in AI in some way – but that world is already so competitive... Maybe Google should just [present a platinum brick to Donald Trump](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) and be done with it. Or let the government [take a 10% stake](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) in Chrome going forward. Speaking of Apple... are they behind in AI? [I mean, yes](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). But does that matter? That's still not entirely clear. [Certainly not clear enough](https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/) to make a, say, $30B+ acquisition. Then again, that's [maybe the only thing](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) that can truly instill a [mentality shift](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) inside of the company to make sure [they can operate](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) in the Age of AI. Unless, of course, the system rejects the organ – as seems to happen with Apple acquisitions [for obvious reasons](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/)... Speaking of AI... before I'm willing to say we'll get to AGI [one day](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/), it would be helpful to know what that – [or any of the other terminology](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) – actually [means](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/). It also probably would have been helpful to define the terms *before* the famous/infamous "clause" was baked into the Microsoft/OpenAI agreement – something which [they're still fighting over](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) to [this day](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/172087334/an-update-on-the-openaimicrosoft-talks?ref=spyglass.org). And certainly all the endless talk about "AGI" hasn't helped OpenAI [in the GPT-5 roll-out](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/). With my investor hat on, I try to think back to what the launch of ChatGPT was like and how there was quite a bit of trepidation around the general space because we were just coming off of the last crypto [boom and bust ](https://500ish.com/hyp3-1d7ad4924015?ref=spyglass.org)which burned a lot of people – not just SBF. And yes, we had just been told that VR would work this time and that the metaverse was inevitable – to the point where Facebook renamed themselves! [As fun](https://500ish.com/g3nerative-33a65834604?ref=spyglass.org) as [DALL-E was](https://mgs.blog/dall-e-has-infected-my-mind-8395d7b819b9?ref=spyglass.org), was a chatbot really going to be the future of AI? That wasn't so obvious until GPT-3 and then GPT-4 came about... Is it a bubble? In some ways, sure. [It always is](https://spyglass.org/vc-crisis/). But I wouldn't expect the fall-out to be that bad. This time. This time is different.™ In terms of AI usage, I reveal my new obsession with getting ChatGPT to write me a summary that we can then discuss after every episode of television that I watch. It really is like a personalize post-show hangout podcast, in a funny way. And they're really good! Lastly, I give the verbal argument for [why AI won't replace writing](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) – at least certain types of writing – where the input and what you get out of the process is just as important as the output. ### Apple Weighs the Voting Machine URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-weighs-the-voting-machine/ Last updated: 2025-10-07T10:30:58.000Z > In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. If you've worked in finance or any tangential industry, you know [this quote](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine?ref=spyglass.org) from [Benjamin Graham](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin%5FGraham?ref=spyglass.org). Warren Buffett cites it often. Is it [mis-quoted](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4816848-ben-graham-misquoted-the-stock-market-is-never-a-weighing-machine?ref=spyglass.org)? It doesn't matter because it's true. But it's a great quote because while it's easy to understand, it's incredibly hard to adhere to. Both if you're an investor and if you're a company. My mind went to this quote when reading the recent report from Aaron Tilley, Wayne Ma, and Valida Pau for *The Information* about how "[Apple’s Aversion to Big Deals Could Thwart Its AI Push](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apples-aversion-big-deals-thwart-ai-push?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org)". The key high level points aren't necessarily new – there's a ongoing debate inside of Apple if they should do a big AI deal to try to help them "catch up" in the race – but some of the details are. And it paints a pretty clear picture of *why* this is such a debate. Everyone knows about [Apple's trials and tribulations](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) when it comes to AI. But it's also not entirely clear that they would be able to fix such issues simply by making an acquisition. Further, making a big one – the report cites interest in both Mistral and Perplexity; again both [known](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/), but now with new details – could actually backfire in a major way. Why? Because Apple's famous internal culture is quite different from that of other cultures – and certainly of most startups. If most of those have gone to the Zuckerbergian school of "move fast and break things", Apple is basically the opposite. [Call it](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-is-here-kinda/): move methodically and make sure everything is perfect. This has come back to bite Apple a few times in the past, but in the current Age of AI, we're seeing some real outward signs of tensions and challenges because the entire industry is now moving at light speed. I'd argue – [and have](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/), [many times](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) – that at the highest level, that's why Apple has [fumbled the bag](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) so badly with AI. Right now at least, it's an industry that requires speed and experimentation. Oh yes, and money. A shit ton of money. Something else which Apple has historically struggled with – not *making it*, the opposite: *spending it*. Case in point: as their Big Tech peers [rocket past $100B a year in CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/), Apple holds slow and steady *between one-fifth and one-tenth of that*. That's obviously mostly because Apple isn't building and buying data centers to train large language models, and in fact, even most of their cloud infrastructure is outsourced. But there have certainly been factions inside the company over the past couple of years that have seemingly been begging them to [buy up some NVIDIA GPUs](https://spyglass.org/apple-google-tpus-nvidia/) and get going. [The CFO said "nope"](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) and Tim Cook agreed. Maybe that was a mistake – certainly given Apple's current predicament in AI, it seems like it may have been. But that's also the short-term vantage point. There is a world, perhaps a few years from now, where that lack of massive CapEx spend seems smart – [and is rewarded by Wall Street](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/). There's also the opposite case to be made, of course. If AI truly does transform everything and Apple is left building on others' technology – something they historically hate. But I'm just saying there's a case that they end up on the right side of history, at least with regard to these early foundation model build outs. And tangential to that, there's a case to be made that they actually *shouldn't* do a big acquisition in AI. [I've long been](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/#:~:text=Apple%20buys%20an,search%20deal/payments...) laying out [the plan to make](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) such a deal, [listing the obvious targets](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) – including, of course, the two listed above – but I do think it's worth thinking about if Apple's own internal hesitation here is warranted. Apple's largest deal to date remains Beats, done over a decade ago for $3B. That is less than many of these AI companies now pull in within single rounds – not the valuation, *the amount raised*. [OpenAI is in the midst](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) of raising an order of magnitude more than that. At more than *two orders of magnitude* the valuation. So yeah, that seems like a mental hurdle the company would have to get over to do a big deal in AI. Cook is saying they're not averse to it, but they clearly are, per the report. And again, perhaps for good reason. While from the outside we may see the Beats deal as a success – the brand is still around, giving Apple an outlet to experiment in some hardware (and accessories) outside of their own pristine branding. But that was only a piece of why Apple bought Beats – another deal that was being pushed by Eddy Cue, just as these current crop of AI deals apparently are: > In another instance, though, Cue successfully pushed Apple to do a deal that was outside its comfort zone. In 2014, at a moment when Apple was falling behind Spotify in the music business, Cue got Cook to agree to buy Beats, despite skepticism from Apple’s old guard about the $3 billion deal. Cue’s plan with Beats was partly to bring about a cultural shift in Apple’s music business, people familiar with his thinking said. > > But integrating Beats with Apple proved difficult. Apple staffers viewed the Beats engineering team responsible for its streaming music service as below Apple’s standards, according to former employees who worked on Apple Music. Apple ended up building its own streaming music service, Apple Music, from scratch rather than relying on Beats’ software. Beats’ headphones business has been more successful for Apple. Buying Beats to "bring about a cultural shift" within Apple is similar to an argument I've been making as to why buying a big AI company might make sense. And while bringing in people like Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre clearly did have an impact internally, it's not entirely clear that it was a good one. And the fact that they couldn't convert the Beats software into the cloud-based iTunes also doesn't speak well to any AI product Apple would buy here. Again, it's just a culture that is very insular and likes to do things their way, from the ground up *and* top down. The most successful bit of M&A Apple has done (beyond buying NeXT, of course) is likely a smaller, more low-key deal: PA Semi. That deal, done 17 years ago, laid the foundation for Apple's move to build their own chips, with many of the employees brought over laying the groundwork for Apple Silicon. So clearly, that would seem to be the type of deal that Apple would want to do in AI. But it's not clear that Apple could do such a deal in this space because it's so red-hot with investors that any company of that pedigree will have already been bid up well into the billions. In hindsight, Apple probably would have loved to have done [the DeepMind deal](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jan/27/google-acquires-uk-artificial-intelligence-startup-deepmind?ref=spyglass.org). That deal was done right before the Beats deal at nearly 1/10th the price. Good luck finding that deal in 2025\. DeepMind today would undoubtedly be worth *hundreds of billions of dollars* as a stand-alone company.1 Buying Perplexity, which [just raised](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Perplexity%20just%20raised%20more%20money%20at%20%2418B%20%E2%80%93%20just%20weeks%20after%20closing%20a%20round%20at%20%2414B.%20ARR%20is%20said%20to%20be%20%24150M.%20The%20constellations%20keep%20rising...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) at an [$18B valuation](https://www.ft.com/content/4e05a5c5-84ad-4f8a-991a-d7f3842de76d?ref=spyglass.org), would probably cost at least double that, in order to convince them to sell. Mistral is valued slightly lower, [apparently now raising at $10B](https://www.ft.com/content/c824d775-d5e9-479d-8872-bb7c2cc702dc?ref=spyglass.org). Still, assuming this round gets done, the price tag would be at least $20B, and probably higher given the money will have just been raised, and presuming there would be other bidders around the table. So we're likely looking at a big AI deal that would be an order of magnitude larger than any deal Apple has ever done. Certainly Apple has the money to do it, but these aren't just turnkey-and-get-caught-up-in-AI deals. Perplexity, potential cultural issues aside, would undoubtedly require a lot of work from a technical perspective to become an Apple product. And that's if none of their current partners balked at working with an Apple-owned company. Mistral, which unlike Perplexity, is actually building their own frontier models, would undoubtedly require *billions more in ongoing spend* from Apple to keep doing what they're doing. You could say goodbye to that small CapEx number. With all that in mind, there would certainly seem to be a case to be made that Apple would be better off continuing down their current path – not exactly going it alone, but [continuing to partner](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) with [various AI players](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) to get their products up to speed [while they work](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) on their own technology [behind-the-scenes](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/). Again, the hesitation to that strategy is first and foremost that it hasn't worked yet. And related, that Apple may not have the right mentality, culturally, for it to ever work in the AI space. At the same time, there's no guarantee that a big acquisition would change any of that either – and it may make things *worse*. Beyond Beats, the *Information* piece goes into some other troubled past acquisitions such as LuxVue and [even Siri itself](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/). And none of this even speaks to the potential regulatory challenges Apple may face in trying to do a deal. Would Apple dare do a "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/)" to get around such concerns? But there's another layer to all of this that Cook and Apple must be weighing: the optics. Wall Street *clearly* wants to see Apple get back into the AI race and you could imagine that if a deal for Perplexity or Mistral or the like was announced tomorrow, Apple's market cap would immediately shoot past whatever the cost of the deal was. That's not a reason to do the deal, but it has to be a part of an equation. Apple needs to be seen as taking this challenge seriously – all the more so [if the Google Search deal goes away](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) – and such a deal would clearly [send a big signal](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/). It would be Apple focusing on the voting machine and not the weighing machine. Which sounds decidedly short-term, but there are long-term benefits to that mentality too. All of this Apple must weigh. And then vote. --- 1 That alone probably [makes Google look awfully undervalued by the market](https://spyglass.org/alphabet-google-value/). ### Google Lost a Search Antitrust Case. Will Gemini Take the Blame? URL: https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust-ai/ Last updated: 2025-09-02T22:19:55.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/mgs22_a_robot_handcuffed_in_court_--v_7_0e5126aa-82bd-4938-bb00-12c06e9e2a5a_3-1.png) Happy Google Antitrust Remedies Week to those who celebrate. That list clearly includes Tim Wu, the legal professor who seems to love nothing more than a good antitrust takedown. In particular if Big Tech™ is involved. And so it's no surprise that we're getting [an opinion piece from him in the *NYT* today](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/opinion/google-antitrust-remedy-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org). Why? He clearly is hoping to sway the judge in Google's case to hold their feet to the fire. Yes, [Google lost the case](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/). But the strange thing about it is that it's playing out just as the key component of the case, online search, is under assault from – wait for it – market forces. More specifically, [the rise of AI is threatening Google's empire](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/). And so it's this weird situation where the judge is looking to remedy a situation which may already be in the process of being remedied. Again, by the market. Not so fast, says Wu. Justice must be served! Even if it means remedies to solve a situation that wasn't actually on trial: > The court has a menu of options. Will it break up Google (by ordering it to sell the Chrome browser or even Android)? Make it share valuable data with its rivals? All of the above? > > The specific outcome obviously matters for Google and its operations. But the remedy’s truer significance is how it will shape the future of artificial intelligence — specifically, how wide it opens the door for a new generation of smaller companies, perhaps even those outside Silicon Valley, to compete in the A.I. age. Look, [I agree that this](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/162705846/the-ai-race-could-be-upended-by-a-judges-decision-on-google?ref=spyglass.org) – the AI element – is the more important question going forward. *Obviously*. But I'm not sure that means you can just slot it in here since the element actually in question – Search – is actively already being disrupted. It's a bigger problem with all of these antitrust cases – [they're all litigated too late and in hindsight](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/). And it [will get worse in the Age of AI](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/). So Wu clearly wants to get ahead of *the next would-be case*. > On its face, the Google case was about the company’s side payments (which in 2021 totaled more than $26 billion) to Apple, Samsung and other companies — payments that the court found were in exchange for preserving Google’s monopoly over search. But search was already a mature market; the bigger stakes and larger target of the case have always been the broader ecosystem of information retrieval, which is destined to be shaped by newer technologies like chatbots and A.I. Expand the scope much? Information retrieval? Is LexusNexis on trial here? Microfiche technology? The Dewey Decimal system? > In that respect, the trial — even before the verdict and remedy — has already changed the industry. Over the past few years, Google has been operating with the proverbial policeman at the elbow, aware that it was being closely watched. Google’s chatbot Gemini is a capable product, plausibly a substitute for OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Left to its own devices, Google would have surely sought to give billions of dollars to big companies like Apple to make Gemini its featured product, as it did with its search engine. It would have also surely sought to pressure and pay smaller companies to do the same. Presuppose, much? I mean, *maybe* Google would have paid billions to partners to put Gemini everywhere? I happen to think it's more likely [they were caught slow-footed on AI at first because of some big company dynamics](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/) – some of which are unique to Google, some of which are not – which also happen to often be the things that lead to Innovator's Dilemmas. That is to say, I'm not convinced that Gemini isn't in a dominant position in AI right now because of the threat of antitrust looming over them, [but rather because](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/) they couldn't get out of their own way. They had everything in place, right there, to create ChatGPT – including, most notably, [the team that literally invented the concepts behind the product](https://spyglass.org/being-real/#:~:text=8%20Google%20Employees,We%20are%20awesome.%E2%80%9D%20%F0%9F%A4%96) – and they couldn't do anything with it until well after OpenAI had productized the technology. That has nothing to do with distribution deals. > But with law enforcement watching, Google has been hampered in its practice of using large amounts of money to win major A.I. deals. As the antitrust reporter Leah Nylen [has noted,](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/how-the-google-antitrust-trial-is-already-changing-online-search?srnd=undefined&ref=spyglass.org) Apple executives describe having a different mind-set in a world without payments from Google — a mind-set that led Apple to choose ChatGPT, not Gemini, for the iPhone’s A.I.-assisted search. Similarly, officials at Perplexity, an A.I. start-up, have spoken of a similar mind-set of openness since Google has been under pressure. Yeah, that is *not* why Apple went with ChatGPT. Nor does [the article he cites](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/how-the-google-antitrust-trial-is-already-changing-online-search?srnd=undefined&ref=spyglass.org) say that, because it's not what Eddy Cue said – he said [a number of damning things about Google](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) in that testimony, but none were about going with ChatGPT because the Google Search default placement payments might go away. ([Which Cue *is* *clearly* annoyed about](https://spyglass.org/appl/).) Wu is likely conflating the notion that Cue said Apple was "actively looking at" revamping Safari around other potential partners more focused on AI, but that's not the deal Wu is referencing. He's talking about the integration in Apple's operating systems, which several Apple executives [have said](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/) was about picking [the leading AI product](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) at the time to give to Apple customers. The article he references does cite Wu prominently though and features a nice picture of him, so there's that. > At the very least, the court’s remedy will formalize this informal arrangement, putting an explicit limit on Google’s ability to use its money to foreclose competition. But the court may well go further — and the further it goes, the more it could shake up the industry and create opportunities for smaller and perhaps more innovative companies. > > Say the court orders Google to sell Chrome. (Perplexity has preemptively bid $34.5 billion for it.) Chrome is the world’s dominant browser, with about 67 percent of the global market, and Google uses it to steer people to both Google Search and Gemini, while collecting valuable user data along the way. A Chrome browser that didn’t favor Google would transform the market for A.I. and search. Yes, the ability to use money to foreclose competition is likely going away – *and should*, I think.[1](#one) It's not clear if this will be specific to Search or if the judge will bucket in tangential elements there – perhaps AI would be considered in such a bucket, but again, that's not what has been on trial here. Wu would also like the judge to remember that [Perplexity has made a very serious offer](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) to buy Chrome for the very specific $34.5B. Money which they don't have, but could totally – *totally* – get, if needed. And money that Google will dispute – *potentially for years* – because [it wouldn't be nearly enough, in their book](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/), undoubtedly. Sounds like the makings of a perfect deal. Also left unsaid is that OpenAI has also said – in court, no less – [they would want to buy Chrome](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/). And given their [fundraising history](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/), likely could *actually* raise the money relatively quickly to do so. But that wouldn't be a good look for what Wu is trying to help with here. That would likely be the court taking the crown from Google and placing it on OpenAI's head. So it's not mentioned. Also, [it's not happening](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/). > Whatever remedy the court issues, there will be a simple measure of its effectiveness: namely, whether people who work at big companies like Google start quitting their jobs to start new companies. The 1956 antitrust agreement between AT&T and the Justice Department, which limited AT&T to the telecommunications industry, helped spawn America’s semiconductor industry as people fled Bell System to start new companies. The antitrust action taken against Microsoft in the 1990s paved the way for today’s internet platforms. Hindsight, much? Cause and effect, much? I mean, come on! If Google is forced to sell Chrome is that going to lead to an exodus of talent from Google? No, what's going to disrupt Google is [what actually disrupted Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/). It wasn't the antitrust case, it was the internet. It was the market. And again, [it's happening](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/). Right now. Granted, Google is still very much in the AI race because [they found their footing](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) relatively quickly and it's still the relative early days of the era. But again, that's how it should work, they should have to compete! And they are. [Now I do wonder](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) if there won't be issues with say, using their *distribution advantages* to try to corner the market. But they haven't been able to do that to date [despite increasingly](https://spyglass.org/ai-google-search/) putting Gemini everywhere – [including in Chrome](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) (in beta)! Also, even if Google is able to "win" in AI, that doesn't address the fact that it may have totally decimated their actual business model. Will search ads work in AI? Maybe on certain types of intent-based queries. But will they work as well as they have in the Age of Search? Probably not! That's a question with which Google is going to have to grapple – judge or no – even if they manage to disrupt themselves. > Today’s tech sector, to a degree not always appreciated, is in the midst of a slow-moving succession drama. The central question is whether the dominant platforms, especially Google, can hold onto their power in the A.I. age. It would be a mistake to assess this or any other antitrust remedy too narrowly. Like the felling of a large tree in an old forest, the question is what it does for the ecosystem — or more precisely, what grows out of it. We all get what Wu is arguing for – and at least it's a slightly better op-ed than [Lina Khan's a few months back](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/) – but does it actually make sense when the case Google lost had nothing to do with the new disruptive technology? A technology which is currently doing its thing by way of market forces, not the legal system? That will be up to the judge, I guess. **Disclosure: I worked at Google for over a decade as a partner at their VC fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* --- **Update September 2, 2025**: And the remedies are now in, and they're largely as expected – including no action on Chrome... [Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google LostChrome stays. Payments stay. Default placement goes. Some Search data goes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-228.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-2--2025--11_05_30-PM.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Antitrust’s Hindsight ProblemThe government keeps trying to litigate problems that are already being naturally disrupted…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-199.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-22--2025--02_38_40-PM-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) [Chrome AloneIf Google were to sell off Chrome, who would benefit? Anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-198.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--57--6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) [Forget the Fate of Chrome, Focus on the Fate of the BrowserIn debating what undoubtedly won’t happen, we’re looking past some key things that are -- and might…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-200.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-22-11.57.12---A-surreal-illustration-of-the-Google-Chrome-logo-being-squeezed--with-the-iconic-multicolored-sphere--red--green--yellow--and-blue--appearing-slightly-3-14.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) [Buy, Build, or BuryThe strategy permeating the Big Tech antitrust trials will go into overdrive in the age of AI![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-201.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_burying_a_robot_in_the_sand_--ar_169_--profile_us5znn6__830f7c1e-8ba4-4444-aee2-d4aede5ed07c_1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/buy-build-or-bury/) [Earth to Lina KhanNearly every point in her NYT op-ed is wrong![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-204.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_earth_in_blue_and_green_with_a_person_floating_in_s_788062cb-35cb-4d1c-8c48-9728c314205c_2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/) [Reminder: What Actually Disrupted MicrosoftIt was not the Justice Department, despite the rhetoric this week…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-203.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_microsoft_logo_in_a_web_browser_window_--ar_43_--v_6._f211fe6e-bd14-40bf-a0ef-806e70dffedd_0-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/) [It’s the End of the Web as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)AI is disrupting web search and publishing, perhaps for the better…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-202.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_stack_of_newspapers_on_fire_--ar_21_--profile_zegoyms_c4decf79-2261-4087-9211-ca7e93b379eb_2-10.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) --- 1 [I will just continue to note](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) that while the default placement payments may go away, I'm not sure the ability for Google to pay Apple for traffic acquisition would or should go away. That's important because it points to a world where Google is still paying Apple billions of dollars annually, assuming customers keep using Google on Apple devices even if it's not the default. I feel like this isn't being talked about nearly enough! ### The 3 iPhone Problem URL: https://spyglass.org/the-3-iphone-problem/ Last updated: 2025-08-26T13:54:53.000Z [Apple to Kick Off Three-Year Plan to Reinvent Its Iconic iPhoneApple is weeks away from its big product launch event, where it will lay the foundation for a once-in-a-generation iPhone overhaul. Also: The company talks with Google about using Gemini to power Siri, and it raises the price of TV+. Lastly, Apple loses yet another AI executive to Meta.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-24.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x793.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-24/apple-to-launch-iphone-17-pro-iphone-17-air-in-september-iphone-fold-next-year-mepmzpcj?cmpid=BBD082425%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250824&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron) In recent years, iPhone sales haven't stalled, but they're stagnant. Some of it is simply market saturation. But part of it is also because there haven't been big new reasons to upgrade your already-probably-fast-enough device. Last year, Apple tried to angle AI as one of those reasons and well... [yeah, whoops](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). But the reality is that a big reason why people upgrade is simply when a device *looks* new. And the iPhone has looked like, well, an iPhone for a number of years now. That's going to change starting this year. And next year. And the year after. We already knew at a high level from various leaks, but Mark Gurman has a few more details about 2025's 'iPhone Air', 2026's 'iPhone Fold', and 2027 'iPhone XX' (yes, I'm making these names up, but you can certainly see the first two being used – the last one sounds a little too porny, perhaps). Given how close we are to the 'Air', pretty much everything seems known about it. From [how thin it is likely to be](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-052-monopoly-pieces/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20New%20Video,lawn.%20%5B9to5Mac%5D), to the Apple-made modem undoubtedly inside. There's even already [talk of battery life issues](https://spyglass.org/the-year-round-iphone/) due to said thinness. But while that device will undoubtedly look (and feel) great from the *side*, from the front and back, it won't look all that different. In fact, the iPhone 17 Pro models will probably look more different given the new 'camera bar' area – and perhaps the [new orange-ish hue](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/down-bad?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7i-spy)! Anyway, cramming everything into the svelte 'Air' [undoubtedly sets the stage](https://spyglass.org/iphone-air-iphone-fold/) for what's next: > The game changer arrives in 2026: Apple’s [first foldable iPhone](https://links.message.bloomberg.com/s/c/BlOdPUINn1C9YGqcJ2mInNP-N8xQqVblViLdOKijhINm7b0IM7fkJoEeuOA20VhJtNFtsEiU4EkgNGW3Uclv-F7WLTLgDPRfTrGjxRNlGijzF66WSeTJebWI0Szke8YQfwuhHkuTsKccmqd9MsfcTLjM08qBaRAjANE2zVfEOnu7hOEXlmBN3sFT4v4nYADTJ65kMeD-AgqzWnmE-NiFrflFXuCxuBRuFhqqpOyKpxcJKeESD8c3ODQRkn4-MoceAOM7VL1teCx4oZ%5FroJ74Rfp3OTCHn5kQzgrM9GlQXodc16sRjWEo04fvysUtUuESh7d7TxtkrDHZ0Cm-XwkOt%5F6SqcGpsr00QIr3eEVC6R00tCN7wCHVa-aJHTc/IDCiLQ69bMjq0Y2tTHaXMjiusJnF42PO/12?ref=spyglass.org). Code-named V68, it looks like Samsung Electronics Co.’s book-style foldables that open into a small tablet. It’s slated to feature five cameras (one on the front, one on the inside and two on the back) and — like the iPhone Air — will lack a SIM-card slot. It also will use Touch ID instead of Face ID, making it a bit of a throwback in that respect. But I still think it will be hugely popular with Apple’s legion of consumers who are willing to spend whatever to get the latest and greatest. I wrote about this topic last year when I got the new Pixel Fold – technically and weirdly named the 'Pixel 9 Pro Fold' – in a post titled ['The Pixel Fold Makes the iPhone Look Old'](https://spyglass.org/pixel-fold-versus-iphone/). It's a form-factor that finally works. It's not perfect – see: the crease – but it has clearly gotten *a lot* better since Samsung first started going down the foldable path several years ago ([with some humorously disastrous results](https://500ish.com/youre-folding-it-wrong-143cf83ff244?ref=spyglass.org)). The segment feels refined enough for Apple to enter and perfect it – you know, their standard playbook. > Apple recently made a change to the screen technology in its foldable iPhone. The original plan was to rely on what are known as on-cell touch sensors, a different approach than current iPhones use. But they can create air gaps between the screen and its cover — and make the unfolded display’s crease look more pronounced. I’m told that Apple is now pivoting to an in-cell touch screen, something closer to what’s already in the iPhone. That should help make the crease less obvious and improve touch accuracy. It will be all about that crease (and hinge). The [just-unveiled](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/) Pixel 10 Pro Fold seemingly fixed the dust/waterproof issue, but presumably the crease remains. It's not awful, but it's certainly noticeable after extended use (it starts out life in the box unfolded, with no crease). > Then comes 2027, when Apple [celebrates its smartphone’s 20th birthday](https://links.message.bloomberg.com/s/c/bxM32BvvObpEmxGkBgaTlNEgFaJEnt9jtBe-xjFRCaRQy3WFzp4EysXRBn31Khztl78JqkeOW6NI%5FAVhAwYMwVKPe2Sh3ytY11HF-WVWk2%5FTatPfI63aPxMVa7hSDpPSEZJbFaDO%5F08lY8UEG%5Fr5SvJiWeUnTChhdA%5FsYvG6blwiOKat51DTXbjUaipbkUosw8JcOf1DjnYGU%5FwyVD3IqNz4hmpFL%5FrGDw8po7xn%5FBgTWQdUtBR3nHmntZm78HI4HCeSx8Y7SS0H5-ENgyQLQ17sCCnjYijqemXmXTMZZWJYoxwrKMuEaAuhHQOmehx%5FetZdvReHIN1F9wkMtv5fEI%5FqSy6XAW%5FTAbuCoPQNfEQ0HN79fVgq-sCp3II/xwP6M-HxViR1EzN0IMPjZYJdGpn-LhAi/12?ref=spyglass.org) with a curved-glass “iPhone 20.” This design will finally break from the squared-off slab we’ve lived with since 2020 and move to an approach with curved glass edges all around. It should fit nicely with the new Liquid Glass-based interface for iOS and other operating systems due to be released next month. Curved glasses edges also aren't exactly new – again, Samsung and others have been doing them for a while – but also not yet perfected. A single sheet of glass covering an end-to-end screen – without cut-outs or bezels – has always been the ultimate end state for the iPhone form-factor. And Apple is apparently close. Naturally, in my head while reading all this, I'm already planning my own personal upgrade cycle. I think it will look like this: **2025:** iPhone 17 Pro Max **2026:** iPhone Fold **2027:** iPhone Fold 2? While I'll undoubtedly be tempted by the 'iPhone Air', I suspect the fact that it's not the top-of-the-line fastest iPhone, and the aforementioned potential battery issues will keep me in the Pro (Max) camp for another year. Plus, if the orange color or [more copper-y](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7i-spy), I'll definitely be on board. Next, the 'iPhone Fold' presents an interesting dilemma here. Perhaps even larger – literally – than the one which occurred when Apple first shifted to the massive screen sizes with the 'Plus' and later 'Max' models. Assuming you buy and fall in love with the 'Fold' are you really going to be able to "downgrade" to the 'iPhone XX'? You'd have to start using a single screen – albeit one edge-to-edge – again, like an animal. Hard to see how you can do that unless you feel like the 'Fold' is too bulky, or if the unfolded inner screen is just overkill. But I'm trying to play this out in my head and I think there's a world in which I skip that 'iPhone XX'. Because as crazy as I am about such things, I'm not going to carry around two phones. I suppose it's possible that Apple doesn't plan to upgrade the 'Fold' every year? But that seems highly unlikely unless it's a complete flop, sales-wise. Regardless, it's still just hard to see how you could move from the foldable form-factor back to a single screen after using it for a year. Anyway, what a problem to have! Actual choice that requires actual thought in the iPhone ecosystem. ### KPopping Netflix's Theatrical Stance URL: https://spyglass.org/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-movie-theaters/ Last updated: 2025-10-07T10:29:22.000Z [Box Office: Netflix’s ‘Kpop Demon Hunters’ Leads With Estimated $18 Million Debut, ‘Weapons’ Stays Strong With $15.6 MillionIn a box office twist, “Kpop Demon Hunters,” a film from the theatrical-averse Netflix appears to be No. 1 on North American charts.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-35.png)VarietyRebecca Rubin![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/KpopDemonHunters_ProRes422HQ_SDR_2ch_20250424.00_06_52_11_L.jpg)](https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/box-office-kpop-demon-hunters-leads-box-office-over-weapons-1236497070/?ref=spyglass.org) Wait a minute, who is that at the top of the box office charts this weekend? Is that... the company which doesn't believe in theatrical releases?! > In a box office twist, a film from the theatrical-averse [Netflix](https://variety.com/t/netflix/?ref=spyglass.org) appears to be No. 1 on North American charts. “[Kpop Demon Hunters](https://variety.com/t/kpop-demon-hunters/?ref=spyglass.org),” a sing-along version of the hit animated musical, is estimated to have earned $18 million to $20 million on Saturday and Sunday. > > Netflix isn’t reporting grosses, but projections from rival studios and exhibitors would put ticket sales for “Kpop Demon Hunters” ahead of those for “[Weapons](https://variety.com/t/weapons/?ref=spyglass.org),” which was expected to claim first place and looks to earn a strong $15.6 million from 3,631 North American theaters in its third weekend of release. Because Netflix doesn't officially report such numbers – because again, as they've made [abundantly clear](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) over the years, they don't care about the theatrical element of the movie business – *Weapons* will "officially" come in first for the weekend, but everyone knows the real score. And it's a huge score for Netflix because *KPop Demon Hunters* was released on the streamer *a couple months ago*. In fact, it's apparently the second-most popular movie *ever* on Netflix. That undoubtedly led to Netflix being okay with the theatrical experiment here to see if they can keep the party rolling – undoubtedly with a push from Sony, whose animation studio actually made the movie (and who [smartly aligned with Netflix](https://mgs.blog/sony-just-announced-their-streaming-service-its-called-netflix-79ea5b917aae?ref=spyglass.org) around streaming distribution a few years ago). And so *KPop Demon Hunters* suddenly appeared on 1,700 screens for one weekend only.[1](#one) As such, many of those showings were completely sold out. Again, for a movie which has been on Netflix for two months. And remains on Netflix. And all of this despite the fact that AMC, the largest theater chain, refused to screen the movie. Why? Because it was already on Netflix! In hindsight, that was stupid. But that's [pretty par](https://spyglass.org/gamestop-amc-djt-grift/) for [the AMC course](https://spyglass.org/movie-theater-ads/). The bigger question is if this continues Netflix's thaw when it comes to theatrical. I've long been on record as saying [I believe that the company's next big backtrack will be on releasing their movies in theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) – at least some of them. And since I wrote that last year, they've had to [cut a deal with Greta Gerwig](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-045-the-tok-tiks-midnight/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%81%20Greta%20Gerwig%E2%80%99s,teeth.%20%5BPuck%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) to allow her to release her upcoming new *Narnia* movie on IMAX screens exclusively for a few weeks before the movie hits Netflix. And more recently, Guillermo del Toro's *Frankenstein* was [subject to a fan movement](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/) to ensure it would get a proper theatrical release – [which it now is](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/can-pixels-meet-atoms-in-ai?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20Netflix%20and%20theaters%2C%20it%20looks%20like%20Guillermo%20del%20Toro%E2%80%99s%20Frankenstein%20will%20get%20a%20more%20traditional%20release%2C%20after%20all.%20And%20the%20window%20looks%20to%20be%203%20weeks%2C%20which%20is%20a%20big%20one%20for%20Netflix%2C%20which%20they%27re%20obviously%20not%20touting%2C%20but%20it%27s%20an%20interesting%20continuing%20trend...%20%5BTHR%5D). And even more recently, Netflix lost a bidding war – despite apparently offering more money – for The Duffer Brothers, the creative talent they ushered in thanks to *Stranger Things*. Why? [The key factor](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171573026/the-duffer-brothers-to-paramount?ref=spyglass.org) was said to be the fact that the Duffers wanted a theatrical component to any film projects they did ([not the first time that has happened either](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/)). The David Ellison-owned Paramount is [all about theatrical](https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/). Netflix? Not yet! Again, it feels like all of the above plus this latest success with *KPop* is going to push Netflix to go against their theatrical stance in a real way. If nothing else, it's great marketing for their content. But it can also be a way to you know, *make money* if they're creative and clever about how they utilize theaters. And Netflix is nothing if not creative and clever! Of course, AMC may have other things to say. But they also can't really afford to turn down money, [quite literally](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/amc-earnings-q2-2025-narrow-losses.html?ref=spyglass.org). **One more thing:** as for the larger box office picture... > Right now the overall box office is 5.1% ahead of last year — a margin that has been rapidly shrinking over the past few months. By comparison, revenues in early June were 25% ahead of 2024\. After a slower end to summer, the all-important season will fall short of the elusive $4 billion mark. Ticket sales are currently at $3.5 billion from May through late August, the four-month stretch that’s regularly the busiest of the year for the movie theater business. Only once since the pandemic has the summer season managed to surpass $4 billion, a benchmark that was common before COVID disrupted the industry. [As always](https://spyglass.org/inside-out-2-box-office/), the premise here is silly because it centers around revenue from ticket sales [rather than actual number of tickets sold](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). And with ticket prices always going up and inflation, such a true comparison actually paints [an even worse picture](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org) for the state of the business. Still, [it's true that](https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/summer-box-office-wont-reach-4-billion-1236495139/?ref=spyglass.org) there was a lack of a major hit this year, with *Lilo & Stitch* the only movie to surpass $1B globally. [Even the other "winners"](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) listed [likely barely](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168381892/supermans-opening-weekend?ref=spyglass.org) covered their costs – *Superman* – [or likely didn't](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) – *F1*. After 2023 passed the $4B mark fueled by '*Barbenhiemer*', there was hope the industry would get back on the trajectory they were on pre-pandemic, when 2019 saw $4.38B in sales. Of course, $4.38B in 2019 is *well over $5B in 2025 dollars*, so those goalposts keep moving further away, if we're being honest. Which Hollywood never is in this regard. I mean, even that stellar 2019 year was tiny [in terms of](https://www.matthewball.co/all/movies2024?ref=spyglass.org) the percentage of the population going to movies historically. We're never getting back to that, of course. [The world has just changed](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). The industry needs to [wake up](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). --- 1 Which, by the way, was *less than half* the number of screens of the widest releases. Thanks, AMC. Didn't matter, it still easily won the weekend. --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Netflix’s Next Backtrack: Movie TheatersAs growth naturally slows, Netflix needs to think bigger picture -- literally![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-192.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--24--7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) [Can Barbie Break Netflix?More pressure is applied to Netflix’s anti-movie-theater stance…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-193.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--38--6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/) [The Fans Demand Netflix’s ‘Frankenstein’ in TheatersGuillermo del Toro’s latest looks big screen-worthy. Will Netflix listen?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-194.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Frankenstein-Movie-2025-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/) [Ted Sarandos Screams “Fire!” at the Movie TheatersHe’s not wrong, but is he right?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-196.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_movie_theater_on_fire_--ar_169_--profile_6kai7g7_--v__197a8ee1-ee91-484a-bea8-e0557b960f70_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-195.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-10.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) ### The Fab Four Anthologies URL: https://spyglass.org/beatles-anthologies/ Last updated: 2025-08-24T11:01:13.000Z [ ‘The Beatles Anthology’ Expands With a 9th Episode and 4th Volume This episode goes behind the scenes of the 1995 documentary; new mixes of “Free as a Bird” and “Real Love” are coming out; and an updated book is due. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) The New York Times Michaela Towfighi ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/08/21/multimedia/21cul-beatles-anthology-kqmz/21cul-beatles-anthology-kqmz-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/arts/music/beatles-anthology-documentary-new-demos.html?ref=spyglass.org) It's almost impossible to believe that the first three volumes of *The Beatles Anthology* (and documentary) are about to turn 30 years old. This will make it even harder to believe: they were released just 25 years after The Beatles broke up. And now they're back – well, a *fourth* anthology: > The fourth volume of the band’s “Anthology Collection” of recordings (including 13 new demos) is arriving, along with a capstone episode to the 1995 eight-part documentary and a 25th-anniversary edition of “The Beatles Anthology” book. > > The album, “Anthology 4,” includes new mixes of “Free as a Bird” and “Real Love.” The release will accompany remastered versions of the first three “Anthology” albums as well, and will be available Nov. 21. Unlike those first volumes, it sounds like this won't feature any new songs – since the "last" Beatles song, *"Now and Then"*, featuring vocals from John Lennon shortly [before](https://mgs.blog/john-lennon-in-exile-f7cbe7a7450b?ref=spyglass.org) he was murdered in 1980, came out a couple years ago. Still, no one will be upset about more Beatles outtakes and footage. This one will include footage of Paul, Ringo, and George – who passed away about six years later, which itself *was already 24 years ago* – creating the original *Anthology*. I recall that first *Anthology* so well as the three volumes were released over the entire span that I was 14 years old – [basically the prime of when music imprints on your brain](https://500ish.com/teenage-wasteland-c769a3695ac2?ref=spyglass.org). I also recall them being very expensive, with each volume featuring *two* CDs. A friend had them and we listened to them endlessly. I didn't actually "obtain" them until the MP3 revolution had started – I'll leave it to the imagination how I got them. But suffice to say, it took hours and hours on a dial-up modem. And now, everyone has them. Well, assuming you subscribe to Apple Music, Spotify, or the like. 14 year old me will never not be blown away by this fact of the modern age. I'm sitting here writing this and thinking "boy I miss those albums" and then I recalled, oh, *I can just search for them and play them right now*, free as a bird. And so I am. Forget AI for a second, this is magic. A magic my children [will never understand](https://500ish.com/the-age-of-abundance-9bc365913cba?ref=spyglass.org) or [sadly appreciate](https://500ish.com/the-missing-art-in-the-art-of-music-146052fe0f99?ref=spyglass.org), no matter how many stories I tell them of saving up lunch money for *months* to buy one album. [Just one CD](https://500ish.com/worth-less-to-worthless-40639de8e8e6?ref=spyglass.org)! We have basically every song ever recorded – including all of the music by The Beatles – available to us on demand at any time. In our pockets, no less. I used to record music off of the radio onto cassette tapes. I would have to rewind and fast forward through commercials. The hours I spent doing this. My god. **One more thing:** the four *Anthologies* will be a nice compliment to [the four *Beatles* movies](https://spyglass.org/meet-the-beatles-movies/) – all set to be directed by Sam Mendes – which are currently in pre-production. And much like those original *Anthologies*, it still sounds like Sony intends for each of the movies to be released, slightly staggered, over the course of a year. Though here, the current plan is to release them all over *the* *same month*, in April 2028\. A sort of binge-able movie theater experiment. That will be wild. [Meet The Beatles MoviesA brilliant bit of marketing wrapped in a distribution strategy…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-189.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_0991-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/meet-the-beatles-movies/) ### Apple's Great AI Bake Off URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/ Last updated: 2025-10-05T07:20:28.000Z [ Apple Explores Using Google Gemini AI to Power Revamped Siri Apple is in early discussions about using Google Gemini to power a revamped version of its Siri voice assistant. ![](https://www.bloomberg.com/favicon-black.png) Bloomberg Mark Gurman ![](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iuEDsTNmMld8/v3/2000x1331.webp) ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-22/apple-explores-using-google-gemini-ai-to-power-revamped-siri?ref=spyglass.org) As the saying goes, keep your friends close, and your frenemies closer: > Apple Inc. is in early discussions about using Google Gemini to power a revamped version of the Siri voice assistant, marking a key potential step toward outsourcing more of its artificial intelligence technology. > > The iPhone maker recently approached Alphabet Inc.’s Google to explore building a custom AI model that would serve as the foundation of the new Siri next year, according to people familiar with the matter. Google has started training a model that could run on Apple’s servers, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Yes, that's the business that OpenAI and Anthropic are [also said to be competing for](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/). And while Apple was thought to be favoring the Claude models in that regard, this report indicates that Apple may be balking at the price Anthropic wants to make this all happen. Could it start with a 'B'? Apple famously [barely makes acquisitions at such heights](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/), let alone technology deals for a company that famously aims to own and operate their whole stack. Of course, the AI situation [in which Apple now finds themselves](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) may [demand it](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/). At least until they can get their own models up to speed... It's the case [I've been making](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) for the past year, [well ahead of](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) these reports. Siri, for lack of a better word, sucks. And she has for over a decade at this point. [We were told](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/) this time would be different – [again](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) – and we were [misled](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) – again. It's clearly time for Apple to seek outside help here. Naturally, they're *still* hesitant to do that. As they're also weighing if they can get their own foundation models up to a level so as to not have to outsource this work: > Internally, Apple is holding a bake-off to see which approach will work best. The company is simultaneously developing two versions of the new Siri: one dubbed Linwood that is powered by its models and another code-named Glenwood that runs on outside technology. It's seemingly *two bake offs* at once: Apple's own models versus the external ones, and the three external ones versus one another.[1](#one) If they're being honest in the assessment, it's hard to see how Apple could go with their own here right now; not only are they playing catch up with the other three when it comes to foundation models, but they're also [losing key talent](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/summers-sobering-box-office?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Apple%20has%20lost,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) left and right – [largely to Meta](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169658049/meta-does-not-fail-to-invade-apple-intelligence?ref=spyglass.org), who keeps poaching their players in their own bid to [catch up in AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). The other interesting wrinkle in working with Google here would be the fact that they may be on the verge of altering their search agreement. Certainly, it seems like the default placement is going to go away, so the question is how much it alters the $20B+ annual payments associated with that deal. [The key question there](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/): does the judge still allow Google to pay Apple a more standard traffic acquisition rate? Without that, this would be an absolutely wild swing from Google paying Apple billions to potentially Apple paying Google billions to use Gemini. That would really, really fuck up [the Services growth narrative](https://spyglass.org/apple-services-services-services-services/) that Tim Cook has worked so hard to cultivate. Or maybe Google would be willing to discount the models for Apple in exchange for some level of branding? Again, these would be Google models running on Apple servers, so the cost would be much less for Google than if they were running on GCP. Or what if Apple sends back data to Google to help improve their models – undoubtedly in a highly anonymized manner? Presumably these are all the elements being weighed right now... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/ChatGPT-Image-Aug-23--2025--02_57_11-PM.png) 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Should Apple Switch Off Siri?In our Age of AI, Siri continues to embarrass Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-165.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--74--11.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) [Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPTNot forever, but for now. Until a new, better Siri is actually ready to roll — which may be \*years\* away…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-166.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_with_an_apple_logo_and_a_scientist_opening_up_i_dbf83ee0-18c0-48e0-8074-7e3f2a9c4212_2-9.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) [Apple’s AI SagaThe ongoing roll-out of Apple Intelligence amidst the Siri mess…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-177.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_An_Apple_logo_in_digital_chains_--ar_169_--v_6.1_7747edd4-ef31-4467-8293-a228db19b296_2-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) [Hey Siri, Time for that LobotomyAs predicted, Apple may outsource Siri to ChatGPT (or Claude)!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-167.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0ad98f15-b90d-4490-9630-f46e158cd894-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) [Apple Backed Into an AI CornerTim Cook tries to rally the troops. Can he?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-164.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/) --- 1 [Shout-out to Chance Miller](https://www.threads.com/@chancehmiller/post/DNqnsrEt2X6?ref=spyglass.org) – and [my own *Great British Bake Off* obsession](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1957483507879727288?ref=spyglass.org) – for the title quip. ### Peering Back at the OpenAI "Constellations" URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-constellation-valuation/ Last updated: 2026-01-09T15:56:56.000Z Just about six months ago, [I looked at the OpenAI "Constellations"](https://spyglass.org/the/) – that is, the companies that were formed by teams that had previously worked at the AI behemoth. In particular, there were a handful of companies in that orbit which had raised absolutely bonkers amounts of money, undoubtedly in part thanks to that affiliation. And since then, things have just gotten more nuts. First and foremost, OpenAI itself has not only continued on their path of raising $40B – [more money than has ever been raised in *any* IPO](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) – at a $300B valuation, they're now letting employees [do secondary sales](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-15/openai-staffers-to-sell-6-billion-in-stock-to-softbank-other-investors?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&ref=spyglass.org) in the **$500B** range, setting a new record valuation for a still-private company. That valuation is undoubtedly driven not just by their own growth, but by those "Constellations" around them which are setting new high watermarks – again, just six months later. Breaking them down once again by the categories I previously used: ### Ursa Major - **Anthropic** had recently been valued at $61.5B at the time of the last post. A new round will [push](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/earning-the-right-to-spend-on-ai?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Anthropic%27s%20new%20valuation%20looks%20to%20be%20landing%20closer%20to%20%24170B%2C%20which%20again%20makes%20more%20sense%20relative%20to%20the%20market%20%28which%20makes%20little%20sense%20relative%20to%20anything%20else%29%2C%20though%20if%20xAI%20actually%20gets%20their%20%24200B%20ask%2C%20that%20seems%20a%20bit%20wild.%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) that number to **$170B** – and perhaps **$175B**, given that the amount being raised seemingly [just jumped](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/anthropic-in-talks-to-raise-up-to-10-billion-in-new-funding?ref=spyglass.org) from $5B to $10B. - **xAI** was trying to raise at a valuation around $75B six months ago. Since then, they merged with one of Elon Musk's other Xs – Xitter. [That deal](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) pushed the combined valuation past $100B (a price that subsequent stock sales [validated](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/nintendo-switch-2-eve?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=xAI%20is%20doing,%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – including [maybe by SpaceX](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=SpaceX%20investing%20%242B,%5BCNBC%5D)) and now they're apparently [trying to raise](https://www.ft.com/content/25aab987-c2a1-4fca-8883-38a617269b68?ref=spyglass.org) at a valuation between **$170B** and **$200B**. It doesn't seem like they've been able to do that [yet](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=In%20a%20world%20where%20xAI%20may%20or%20may%20not%20be%20raising%20at%20%24200B%2C%20it%20certainly%20seems%20like%20Anthropic%20should%20be%20worth%20well%20over%20%24100B%20at%20this%20point.%20I%20don%27t%20make%20the%20valuation%20rules%2C%20but%20they%20are%20relative.%20Might%20a%20new%20mega%20round%20give%20another%20big%20company%2C%20like%20Apple%2C%20a%20way%20to%20invest%3F%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), but presumably they'll be able to at some point at some premium. - **Safe Superintelligence** is seemingly "stuck" on their **$32B** valuation that was reported back then. It probably hasn't helped [to lose](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?ref=spyglass.org) their CEO and co-founder, Daniel Gross, [to Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/)... They also still don't have a product/model/anything – at least that they've talked about publicly. Still, one can assume Ilya Sutskever can raise pretty much whatever, whenever he wants given his track record. - **Perplexity** had been valued at $9B putting them in "Ursa Minor". But since then, they've been all over the news thanks to Apple talking about them [both internally](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) and under oath, [in court](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/), no less, [launching a web browser](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/), and offering to buy Chrome with money [they clearly don't have](https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/) (on top [of TikTok](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-046-big-day-yuge-day/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Perplexity%20AI,now.%20%5BCNBC%5D)). After jumping to a $14B valuation, a few weeks later, [they jumped again](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Perplexity%20just%20raised%20more%20money%20at%20%2418B%20%E2%80%93%20just%20weeks%20after%20closing%20a%20round%20at%20%2414B.%20ARR%20is%20said%20to%20be%20%24150M.%20The%20constellations%20keep%20rising...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) to **$18B**. Obviously, if they need to raise, say, $34.5B, that will go up again... - **Thinking Machines Lab** was thought to be valued at $9B out of the gates and [now](https://www.wired.com/story/thinking-machines-lab-mira-murati-funding/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) that number is something [more like](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166970418/how-thinking-machines-lab-plans-to-compete-in-ai?ref=spyglass.org) **$12B**, as Meta also [keeps trying](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169658049/meta-fails-to-invade-thinking-machine-lab?ref=spyglass.org) to pull people out of that startup – with offers apparently [north of $1B](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/). Just for the individuals who work there, well at least one of them! And it's not Mira Murati! (Though Meta did [try to buy](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) the whole company too...) ### Ursa Minor - **Harvey**, the AI legal startup was valued at $3B at the time – that's now at **$5B** after [a new $300M Series E round](https://www.harvey.ai/blog/harvey-raises-series-e?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) - **Periodic Labs** is a new AI startup focused on material science that secured a **$1B** valuation thanks to [a $200M round](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/ex-openai-deepmind-staffers-set-for-1-5-billion-value-in-andreessen-led-round?ref=spyglass.org) led by a16z – after OpenAI, where co-founder Liam Fedus had worked, tried to lead. - **Eureka Labs**, the startup which I'm keeping on the list because it was founded by [Andrej Karpathy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrej%5FKarpathy?ref=spyglass.org) – one of [the OpenAI co-founders](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/) who has worked there *twice* and also worked on AI at Tesla, who also apparently coined the term ["vibe coding"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vibe%5Fcoding?ref=spyglass.org) – still doesn't seem to have a valuation set. At least not one that's been reported... All told, whereas the "Constellations" were previously valued in aggregate just under $200B, now that number is more like **$413B** – assuming xAI gets at least the $170B valuation they're seeking. But even without that, Anthropic alone is almost past the total combined valuation previously. And when you add in the new $500B valuation for OpenAI – we're closing in on a **$1T combined valuation** for OpenAI and their diaspora... --- **Update January 9, 2026**: And another check back in... [The Incredible Valuation Heights of the OpenAI “Constellations”Now past $700B in aggregate. Add in OpenAI itself and we’re at $1.5T.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-854.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Jan-9--2026--03_46_18-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-diaspora-valuations/) --- 1 As disclosed previously, GV, where I was a partner for over a decade, is an investor in Harvey. Also, Google, which is the LP of GV, also has a large investment in Anthropic, of course, but I have no financial stake there. ### Google's Distractingly Smarmy Pixel Event URL: https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-2025/ Last updated: 2026-08-13T21:24:58.000Z Well, it was something worth trying, I suppose. That's about the nicest thing I can say about watching the 90-minute extravaganza of cringe that was the [Made by Google '25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXCXTQIIvM0&ref=spyglass.org) event as hosted by Jimmy Fallon. To be clear, the [announcements](https://www.techmeme.com/250820/p27?ref=spyglass.org#a250820p27) themselves seemed fine. Many of them potentially good, even. The problem was that I was too busy focused on the production of the event – mainly the strangeness of it – to really be able to gather much about the new devices. I mean... what did I just watch? Granted, I wasn't a Jimmy Fallon guy going into watching this event, so I might not be the best judge here. But the reasons Fallon annoys me were not just on full display, they were cranked up to infinity. It's one thing when you have to interview a celebrity and pretend to be excited about every little thing they're saying – that has long been the job of a late night talk show host[1](#one) – it's another to spit out exaggerated effusive praise time after time when being shown, say, a new color shade for the Pixel devices. The smarm was simply off the charts here. The other celebrity guests were better, but still mainly distracting from what should have been the real stars of the show: the new gadgets! Worse, the entire thing gave off some very real infomercial vibes. From the opening where Fallon sits down with the usual MC of such events, Google's head of devices, Rick Osterloh, to the next segment where the new Pixel phones were showcased and presented to Fallon in what really did seem to be a QVC set, [as Sarah Perez pointed out](https://x.com/SarahPerezTC/status/1958218219308654898?ref=spyglass.org). Again, the devices themselves were not the issue, it was the presentation that made the entire thing seem staged. I mean, it *was* staged – all such events are. But the goal is to try to not make them feel that way. Google seemingly went the other way here. To the point where I have to think they had to have been going for that look and feel on purpose? What were they thinking? Again, I can appreciate trying something different here rather than the same old playbook of trying to emulate the old Steve Jobs Apple keynotes. But the celebrity overload just made it feel like Google had something to hide – or at least nothing all that interesting to talk about. While often times the people that actually worked on the products aren't great presenters – that's not their job, after all – there's an authenticity that comes through in their presentations at least. This felt like, well, watching an infomercial. And while normally I'm a big proponent of doing such events live – [as I was for Google's event last year](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-aiphone/) and I [wish](https://spyglass.org/apple-needs-an-editor-series-2/) Apple would [return](https://spyglass.org/sweet-iphone-16-2/) to them – if Google really wanted to go down this particular path, it probably would have been better pre-recorded? This was just so awkward at times, when you could watch Fallon squirm to try to figure out the right quip to say to keep the cringe rolling. But the best parts were when he would just sort of stare blankly into the camera, and not for comedic effect. Well, at least Apple knows what *not* to do now if and when they bring back their own live events. And that includes letting the Jonas Brothers film a music video with your brand new, state of the art device where the output looks like the ironic throwback ["Big Bang Baby" video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0gAxuvo5rc&ref=spyglass.org) that Stone Temple Pilots made almost 30 years ago. Come to think of it, there's perhaps a warning in those lyrics: > Sell your soul and sign an autograph > Big bang baby, it's a crash, crash, crash > I wanna die, but I gotta laugh **One more thing:** there was one moment with Fallon that I did actually appreciate. He mentioned Apple! By name! That never happens at such events, it was like breaking the fourth wall. Of course, Google clearly knew he was going to do this and it was part of the bit. But that was the one actually fun moment in this entire thing. It lasted about 30 seconds. --- **Update**: I had totally forgotten that *just last year*, Fallon was a part of Apple's iPhone 16 keynote! [There he was](https://www.threads.com/@chadptorres/post/DNmA15NSYPW?xmt=AQF0O05PQN210A2-NSKJ7qXyyNnqngrlA8qLVx4oS-bmFQ&ref=spyglass.org), walking around with Tim Cook carrying a dumb selfie stick in a very Fallon-esque bit. But at least it was just a bit, and he wasn't MCing the whole event. Still, it must be asked: is Fallon [the new Justin Long?](https://spyglass.org/im-a-qualcomm-pc/) --- **Update August 13, 2026**: ...and we're back! [Google (Again) Brings a Comedian to a Tech KeynoteThe ‘Made by Google’ event clearly isn’t for me. But is it for anyone?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-6f04388a-aff3-4c2f-b570-d50aac9be987.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-10.59.31---PM-83bcb6b1-3e48-4c81-9131-105d32e09f8c.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-pixel-event-trevor-noah/) --- 1 Sadly, [the late night host job may not be around for much longer...](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/) ### Super Ultra Megaintelligence™ URL: https://spyglass.org/super-ultra-megaintelligence/ Last updated: 2025-10-01T07:08:54.000Z Right before I left on vacation a couple weeks ago, [I was back on](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8YyzOWgBAg&ref=spyglass.org) Alex Kantrowitz's *Big Technology Podcast*. It was right after Mark Zuckerberg posted his spartan memo on ["Personal Superintelligence"](https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/?ref=spyglass.org) so we riffed on that a bit ([I extended on those thoughts here](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/)). That morphed into a broader discussion about Meta's overall AI strategy here and how it may play out. That goes right into a back-and-forth about [the branding debate around AI/AGI/Superintelligence](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). Obviously, it's mostly marketing and all a bit silly, but there's also clearly some strategy involved behind the scenes – perhaps namely between OpenAI and Microsoft given "The Clause" in their contract around AGI. And now Meta, [playing catchup](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/), wants to make it clear that they're [not just going to](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) make the same type of "superintelligence" as everyone else. Anyway, we're now but a few steps away from Super Ultra Megaintelligence™. Who will build that? Undoubtedly one of the current players in AI, but Big Tech might be okay if it's one of the "startups" because [they actually own huge chunks of the various players in Big AI](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/). With OpenAI now [hitting a $500B valuation](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/openai-in-talks-for-share-sale-valuing-startup-at-500-billion?ref=spyglass.org) with a secondary sale going on, if Microsoft ends up [owning 33% of the company](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/), that's... $165B. Maybe that doesn't seem like a lot of money when you're worth $4T, but that would seemingly be larger than most of Microsoft's other business units. And let's just say that one day OpenAI goes public and is worth a few trillion itself. Well, you can do the math! How do you value such companies anyway? It's all a bit finger-in-the-windy or pie-in-the-sky-y if you prefer. It's also all just clearly relative to what the any competitors valuation is currently... But to justify it all, will the current business growth be enough? They'll probably going to need to have their own Google or Meta monetization breakthrough. Not necessarily something completely new, but a new twist on an old way to monetize made more effective to scale... Until then, the massive spend will continue – including on employees to leverage all [the AI CapEx spend](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/). At the same time, employees who aren't vital to that part of the business may be, unfortunately, expendable. It's [an "enigma"](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/07/24/recommitting-to-our-why-what-and-how/?ref=spyglass.org) of a time – [the best of times, the worst of times](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/)... Lastly, I truly believe and argue that [AI isn't going to fully replace human-powered writing](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/). For certain types of writing, sure. But just as important as the output with different types of writing is the *input*. That is what you're putting into it because that directly leads to what you're getting out of it. Said another way: the process of writing is just as important as the writing itself to many people, myself included. Many people who don't write for a living perhaps don't realize that. But they will. [Or won't and be worse off for it](https://spyglass.org/markets-shaken-stirred/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%9D%20Writes%20and,Paul%20Graham%5D). Yes, cheating is an issue. But it's often an issue with new technology. The more problematic element is if you just end up cheating yourself... ### The Scale is New, the Idea Isn't URL: https://spyglass.org/blackberry-movie-poaching/ Last updated: 2025-10-01T07:08:30.000Z Last night, I was doing a bit of home-related work and wanted to have something on in the background so I chose [*BlackBerry*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackBerry%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org), the 2023 film about yes, the rise and fall of [Research in Motion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackBerry%5FLimited?ref=spyglass.org) (RIM). I had seen it before and liked it and now it's on Netflix; it's just a great rewatch. Anyway, there's a sequence about midway through that made me pause. Under threat from Palm, RIM co-CEO [Jim Balsillie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim%5FBalsillie?ref=spyglass.org), realizes they need a game change. "Okay, party's over," as he rushes in to tell his RIM employees, interrupting the sacred movie night. "You guys having fun? Because we're about to lose our fucking company." A verbal back-and-forth ensues between Balsillie and co-founder [Doug Fregin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas%5FFregin?ref=spyglass.org), who informs him that they can't possibly sell more devices because of the "network limit load" the carriers are facing. At that point, Balsillie pulls his co-CEO (and Fregin's co-founder) [Mike Lazaridis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike%5FLazaridis?ref=spyglass.org) aside to ask him what a network limit load is and how to fix it. Lazaridis tells him that without the carriers rebuilding their networks, RIM would need to figure out a way to shrink their data. "These guys can't do it," Lazaridis sheepishly admits about his current employees. > **Balsillie:** "What do you mean they can't do it?! You said they were the best engineers in the world." > > **Lazaridis:** I said they were the best engineers in Canada. When Balsillie asks who could do it, Lazaridis tells him that maybe the "top guys" at Motorola or Microsoft or Google.[1](#one) With that – after going to rally the sales team to kickstart his plan – Balsillie hops on his private jet and flys straight to Mountain View. The next time we see him, he's on Google's campus in the office of Paul Stannos, Google's head of physical engineering. The pitch is simple: "Come work for me." So simple that Stannos just laughs at the hubris. Of course he can't just go work for him – he works at Google. "How much money do you want?" Stannos gets up to close his office door. > **Balsillie**: "I'll give you a million dollars if you sign right now." > > **Stannos** *(as he unplugs his computer from the ethernet)*: "I am not moving to Canada. We are not having this conversation." > > **Balsillie**: "Two million." > > **Stannos** (very uncomfortable): "Stop." > > **Balsillie**: "Three million." > > **Stannos**: "I need you to leave." > > Pause. > > **Balsillie**: "Ten million." > > **Stannos** (thinking): "Well you don't have ten million dollars." At this point, Balsillie opens his briefcase and presents Stannos with a million dollar option deal. He says he'll backdate the options to make it so that if RIM can hit their Merrill Lynch target, those options will be worth more than $10M. Now, there are two problems here. First, Paul Stannos is not real. Second, the whole backdating options element *was real* in so far as people – namely Balsillie and Lazaridis [got in trouble](https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-20902?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=The%20SEC's%20complaint%20alleges%20that,employees%20by%20backdating%20millions%20of) for this and [ultimately settled with the SEC](https://www.reuters.com/article/business/top-rim-execs-settle-us-sec-backdating-charges-idUSN17386730/?ref=spyglass.org) – but it doesn't seem like it was specifically tied to the recruiting of top talent as portrayed in the film. (There are... [a lot of liberties in the film](https://www.historyvshollywood.com/reelfaces/blackberry/?ref=spyglass.org), which was adapted from [a book](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Losing-Signal-Extraordinary-Spectacular-Blackberry/dp/1250060176?ref=spyglass.org).) At the same time, the high level notion of RIM feeling the need to pay – and perhaps overpay – to lure top talent to Canada does seem accurate. And so in a weird way, this movie that came out two years ago – and specifically that sequence – feel more like a representation of what is currently happening at Meta with their, and specifically Mark Zuckerberg's, [attempts to lure the top AI talent](https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/) in the world to the company. Again, there are Hollywood liberties, but the high-level notion of these outlandish pay packages tied to stock performance – it's all right there on screen. Yes, the scale is different – $10M? Try [$100M](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) or [even $1B these days!](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) And yes, there's no fraud – I mean, hopefully! But the general mentality is the same. Mark Zuckerberg, like the fictional Balsillie in the movie, realized that his current team wasn't cutting it and that they needed to get the best people in the world in their sectors on board to win. [No matter what](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/). One imagines the fictional Stannos could have asked for $100M. It wouldn't have mattered. Balsillie, like Zuck, was going to pay [whatever it took](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) to get a "yes". The stakes were that high. In the case of Alexandr Wang in 2025, [that took $14B](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). For Meta to buy the stake in Scale AI – an offer Wang [couldn't refuse](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/). And while others [have been refusing](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) Zuck's offers of late, he's clearly going to keep making them. Because like RIM v. Palm, Meta can't afford to lose [against](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) OpenAI, Anthropic, and who else? [Google](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). Back to the movie, Balsillie gets back on his jet and he's off to continue his shopping spree. Microsoft. Nokia. Nintendo. Meanwhile, Stannos shows up at the RIM offices and Lazaridis and Fregin cannot believe he's there. The first of [a new SWAT team](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) – the Alexandr Wang of RIM. Balsillie goes on to get another target out of Motorola – and hires his boss too. It all feels [very Zuckerbergian](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) – except it's not. Both because it's fictional but also because it's actually not new. Zuck is just the latest and [most extreme example](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) of willing to pay whatever it takes to catch up and win. And whether it [works or not](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) – it did for a bit with RIM, [until it didn't](https://500ish.com/anagnorisis-c5ebf2f1ca05?ref=spyglass.org) – he won't be the last. Anyway, great sequence, great movie. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/original.jpeg) --- 1 Special shoutout to Fregin popping in to humorously mention [John Carmack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John%5FCarmack?ref=spyglass.org), the co-founder of [id Software](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Id%5FSoftware?ref=spyglass.org), in the scene. **Fregin**: "The guy who made Doom." **Balsillie**: "What's Doom?" **Lazaridis**: "Have you played Wolfenstein?" A dead stare from Balsillie. **Lazaridis**: "Please just don't sell anymore phones. Carmack, famously, worked at Meta for a time. Though not on AI – he left to go work on AI. ### Meta Shoves More Shit Into IG URL: https://spyglass.org/instagram-cruft/ Last updated: 2025-09-29T10:13:59.000Z [Instagram adds a reposts feed and rips off Snap MapsYou can now repost Reels and grid posts.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-34.png)The VergeMia Sato![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/repost-in-FL-prof-feed-gradient.png)](https://www.theverge.com/news/719756/instagram-adds-reposts-feed-rips-off-snap-maps?ref=spyglass.org) I had been holding off on writing about this because I don't yet have the Instagram Maps feature. But as it turns out, that's likely because I live in Europe – and the feature undoubtedly isn't rolled out here yet, and may never be. For once, this may be a feature and not a bug of living here. Anyway: > [Starting today](https://about.fb.com/news/2025/08/new-instagram-features-help-you-connect/?ref=spyglass.org), users will have the ability to repost public Reels and grid posts from other accounts. And similar to TikTok, reposts will be collected in a designated tab on your profile and sprinkled into the feeds of people who follow you. It’s a small but meaningful shift from how Instagram currently operates: until now, the most efficient way to share other users’ content was to repost it on your Instagram Story. Now, you can essentially reblog it. Thanks, I hate it. I mean, honestly, at first, I find it a bit hard to get too worked up about this simply because Instagram overall is now so far removed from the [original picture-centric vision and version that I loved](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/20/instagram/?ref=spyglass.org). Also, get off my lawn, damn kids. But the way this has been rolled out from a UX-perspective is just so stupid that I'm worked up about it again. Multiple times while scrolling the Instagram feed I've now hit the 'repost' button by accident and boom, nice and awkward. I would normally chalk this up to user error, but my wife reported doing the same exact thing the other day. And it's terrifying! Hopefully they wait a bit to notify others that you just reposted, so that you can correct the error without anyone noticing. But who knows! It just feels like a pretty awful user experience to make users afraid to use the app. And yes, it further changes what Instagram was because you no longer have to "create", you can just "curate". Which at a high level is fine – it ended up working out well for Twitter, [after some initial worries](https://techcrunch.com/2009/11/11/simple-is-as-simple-does-the-risk-of-retweet/?ref=spyglass.org) about what it would do to that network (though many might say it ultimately ruined Twitter at scale because of all the spam and dunking, etc). But to shove this into Instagram – and again, so prominently – *years* after that network is already at scale carries different risks. Clearly though, Instagram is looking for new avenues of growth. We'll see. > Instagram is also pulling from Snapchat and adding an opt-in location map that lives in your private messages. The map shows the last active location for friends who have opted in to the feature; it also pulls content from specific locations, such as a music festival, where many people are posting from. It’s the Snap Map but redesigned for Instagram. Again, while I don't have this feature yet (thankfully), many of those who do are clearly being vocal enough about hating it that we're getting non-stop articles about [turning it off](https://www.theverge.com/news/756798/instagram-map-how-to-turn-it-off?ref=spyglass.org) and [privacy concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/us/instagram-map-location-meta.html?ref=spyglass.org), etc. Yes, yes, [everyone hates change](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/), we know that. But this feels a lot more like the case of "if Instagram had created Snap Map, they would be the creators of Snap Map". While I'm sure some data pointed to Instagram further hurting Snap by shoving this into the messages area of IG, it's undoubtedly true that a massive number of users simply do not use Instagram this way – chatting with friends – nor do they want to. And sure, it's opt-in, but the problem here is that they just shove all this shit in your face and just as with my reposts complaint above, it's not clear who can see what, etc. For example, if you've geotagged a regular old image well... [boom](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/07/instagram-map-location-sharing-privacy/?ref=spyglass.org)! And while the AI social sharing stuff they've been doing is opt-in too – [how's that working out for Meta?](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/) Further, in trying to find the Maps feature today, I was just clicking around in the settings of Instagram and my god it's a nightmare. I consider myself pretty savvy when it comes to apps, and I have absolutely no idea what at least half of the settings are for and/or do and where to find almost anything. It largely seems to be Facebook's fault – i.e. security and privacy settings that carried over from the "Blue App" – but it's just a total mess. As is the general usability of Instagram as a whole now, with 50 different features and feeds [shoved into one app](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/). It's old school Instagram, and Snapchat, and Twitter, and Messenger, and YouTube, and TikTok, and now all the [stupid social AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) chatbot [nonsense](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/) that Meta [keeps trying](https://spyglass.org/judi-dench-ai/) to [make happen](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/), even after [tragedy](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/171274073/metas-flirty-ai-bot-lures-to-tragedy?ref=spyglass.org)... I would just quit but much like Facebook before it, it remains the place where a sizable chunk of my social graph is found online. Mostly I lurk and use Stories to post some travel pics to friends. I still try to post to the main feed mainly as a log of where I've been since I've been doing that since the service started, but it's honestly increasingly hard to do and really just seems pointless (putting aside the new backed-into stalking concerns). I'd much rather use a service like [Glass](https://glass.photo/?ref=spyglass.org) which is focused on that use case. I really can't wait to be able to quit. 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Meta Is Unbundling... AgainThe strategy behind the stand-alone apps for Reels and Meta AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-143.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_facebook_icon_unpacking_a_giant_box_of_stuff_throwing_9466aef8-0e0c-412d-8076-73fd5c8720b0_2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) [RIP Meta’s Celebrity AI Chatbots (2024 - 2024)BRU, we hardly knew you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-144.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Meta-AI-chatbots-Tom-Brady-1-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/) [Well This is AwkwafinaMeta aims to resurrect celebrity AI voices right after killing off others?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-146.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Judi-Dench-voice-recording-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/judi-dench-ai/) [Hey Meta AI, Is This Fraud? Publish.I’m shocked, shocked that Meta has a new privacy nightmare on their hands – this time powered by AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-145.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-15-at-10.06.25---PM-2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/) [Meta’s Next Big BlunderSocial AI “characters” are so obviously and hilariously going to fail![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-142.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/) ### M.S.N.O.W. URL: https://spyglass.org/ms-now-msnbc/ Last updated: 2025-09-26T15:55:51.000Z [MSNBC Will Change Name to MS NOW After NBCUniversal SplitMSNBC will rechristen itself as MS NOW once NBCUniversal splits off the new media company Versant![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-33.png)VarietyBrian Steinberg![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MS_NOW_LogoTag08-18.png)](https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/msnbc-new-name-ms-now-1236491621/?ref=spyglass.org) Oh boy. > MSNBC will have to take a new name in months to come as it seeks to carve out an identity that will have it competing for scoops and news with current corporate sibling NBC News. MSNBC will soon come to be known as My Source for News Opinion and the World, or MS NOW, following [the spin off of the bulk of NBCUniversal’s cable assets](https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/comcast-massive-cable-spin-off-separating-usa-msnbc-1236214865/?ref=spyglass.org) into [a new publicly traded company called Versant.](https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/comcast-cable-spin-buyer-seller-acquisition-deals-1236223992/?ref=spyglass.org) The changes were detailed in a memo to staffers Monday by Mark Lazarus, who will run Versant as its founding CEO. "My Source for News Opinion and the World" is just an amazingly awful acronym of gibberish. Truly impressive work. And it was so obviously backed-into, because they *wanted* to keep some semblance of the old name, but couldn't keep the 'NBC' part... > MSNBC had planned to keep its name, but NBCU recently decided to retain its famous Peacock design and markings and not share them, requiring Versant to make changes to some of its networks that use those insignia and the NBC logo, Lazarus said. “As we all know, the peacock is synonymous with NBCUniversal, and it is a symbol they have decided to keep within the NBCU family,” he said. “This gives us the opportunity to chart our own path forward, create distinct brand identities, and establish an independent news organization following the spin.” That's a tough spot to be in – peacockblocked! – as it is with the other properties now a part of Versant – the [equally awfully named](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/cue-sunk-my-battleship?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=We%20have%20a%20name%20for%20Comcast%E2%80%99s%20unwanted%20children%20TV%20networks%3A%20Versant.%20But%2C%20as%20it%20turns%20out%2C%20what%20sounds%20like%20generic%20corporate%20gibberish%20is%20actually%20a%20word%20meaning%20%22a%20region%20of%20land%20sloping%20in%20one%20general%20direction%22.%20Which%20direction%20might%20that%20be%20in%20this%20case%3F%20%5BVariety%5D) spin-off from NBCUniversal. But opting to keep 'MS' which stems from the [decades-ago partnership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSNBC?ref=spyglass.org) forged between um, *Microsoft*, and NBC seems, well, a bit odd. Since not only is Microsoft not involved, but they haven't been involved with the channel for – checks notes – *twenty years*.[1](#one) It was so long ago that you almost have to wonder if *Microsoft* isn't a bit annoyed that they're still using that element of the name! I mean, I, for one, cannot look at 'MS NOW' and see anything other than 'MS DOS'.[2](#two) But maybe that's just me – someone who is old enough to have had a computer that booted MS DOS. And while Microsoft doesn't really promote the 'MS' abbreviation anymore, it's still a part of [a lot of their software](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft%5FOffice?ref=spyglass.org)! Oh, but not to worry, because 'MS' no longer stands for Microsoft, it stands for... 'My Source'. Look, I don't hate it as much as I should. It's more than a bit weird to have 'My' when the common possessive adjective used in such situations would be 'Your' (i.e. "your source for trusted news"), but whatever. My main gripe there is that if they were going to go down this path, they should have simply gone with 'My Source Now' – why did the totally new and very common "now" have to be made into an acronym as well?! And if you really need to do that, maybe pick three words that fully flow together, not two that do – news & opinion – and one that seems tacked on: world. This is basically [Jim's Dwight Schrute "Bears, Beets, Battlestar Galactica" bit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaaANll8h18&ref=spyglass.org) from *The Office*. Yes, there's also a bit of ["We Hear, For You"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoeWn90SPdM&ref=spyglass.org) in here... Also, wait, hold on a minute. I'm sorry. I was so preoccupied with the actual name that I just now looked again at the logo. What's that little flag thing?! Is that the *Austrian* flag?! What on Earth? (Because we apparently now know *where* on Earth!)[3](#three) Worse, it looks to be an Austrian flag tucked inside a white flag. White flags are not typically a signal you want to send as a media organization these days. At least I think that's a flag. One billowing in the wind? I guess it could be a bookmark? A bookmark with an Austrian flag for some reason? > Corporate types might take comfort in the fact that MS NOW is probably easier to say and recall than MSNBC, Maddow suggested. “While I will admit to having no idea how to pronounce “MS NOW” (and I’m still not all that sure about pronouncing “Versant,” either), we’re at least dropping our syllable count from five to three!” she said. “An efficiency gain!” Wait, now that they say that, I can't help be immediately be drawn to call it "Ms. Now". Maybe that could work for an influencer – sorry, only unmarried or empowered women using their maiden names may apply. Or I guess "Mississippi Now" – there are sort of elements of that state flag. Well, the *old* one. You know, [the one with the Confederate flag also baked in](https://www.britannica.com/topic/flag-of-Mississippi?ref=spyglass.org)? Now my mind is really drifting. *Mississippi Burning*. *Apocalypse Now*. When you do a Google Search for the name, most of the results are dominated by information about multiple sclerosis, which, of course, many simply call by its abbreviation: MS. In that sense, 'MS NOW' very much sounds like a support group for people living with the condition. Speaking of, Versant clearly wants it to be pronounced 'M.S. Now' but given that 'MS' is an abbreviation and 'NOW' is *also* an abbreviation, why wouldn't it also be pronounced with each letter: 'N.O.W.'? Also, MSNBC was, in fact, 'M.S.N.B.C' – if they want the space to stop the letter pronouncing, 'NOW' should be 'Now'. Which is to say, not an acronym. So, I'm going to go with 'M.S.N.O.W'. Back to five syllables, Ms. Maddow! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/MS_NOW_LogoTag08-18.webp) --- **Update**: Wait, you're telling me that while NBC is demanding MSNBC has to change their name, they're not demanding that CNBC do the same? How stupid is that? I don't care if the 'NBC' in 'CNBC' was said to stand for something else (Consumer News and Business Channel), everyone assumed it was the same as 'NBC' – because they also use the peacock logo! Presumably that will have to stop? Also, they undoubtedly backed into that acronym because CNBC [launched in 1989 as a joint venture between Cablevision + NBC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNBC?ref=spyglass.org). So it's the exact same situation as 'MSNBC', I guess the latter's mistake was not coming up with a silly new acroynm sooner. Also, thinking about it more, maybe the better solution would have been for MSNBC to buy (or license) 'MSN' from Microsoft. That is now it all started (it wasn't just 'MS' for Microsoft, it was 'MSN' + 'NBC'), and what is the point of MSN for Microsoft anyway in 2025? It's just sort of a crappy-looking news aggregator stuffed with ads. Shouldn't Microsoft want to direct all such traffic to Bing? Or maybe now the Copilot consumer-facing web app? How great would 'MSNBC' morphing into simply 'MSN' have been? It would have seemed like it's own, major three-letter player in news. Take that, NBC. --- 1 Though yes, they remained technically involved in the MSNBC.com website for another seven years after that. 2 The ALL CAPS element of the name doesn't help either... 3 Here's where I'll admit that I'm perhaps a bit predisposed to see an Austrian flag at the moment having just gotten back from two weeks traveling in the (beautiful) country. But still. IT IS THE AUSTRIAN FLAG. 🇦🇹 ### The US Government Inside Intel URL: https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/ Last updated: 2025-09-26T15:55:30.000Z [Trump Administration Said to Discuss Taking Stake in IntelThe Trump administration is in talks with Intel Corp. to have the US government potentially take a stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, helping support the company’s effort to expand domestic manufacturing, according to people familiar with the plan.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-23.png)BloombergRyan Gould![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-17.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/trump-administration-is-said-to-discuss-us-taking-stake-in-intel?ref=spyglass.org) [Prediction #3 for 2025](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/), made on December 31, 2024 was as follows: > **Intel gets bailed out** – We'll see what ends up happening with the CHIPS Act under the new Trump administration, but regardless, I have a hard time believing they're going to just let Intel wither on the vine. Enabling/bolstering a true American player in chips is a win, no matter the political party. Could a new administration help broker a deal to get, say, [Microsoft to support the rejuvenation of Intel](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/)? First things, first, Intel needs to put in place a new leadership team. I'll keep my ([early](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-022/#:~:text=As%20for%20the,too%20risk%2Daverse...)) money [on Lip-Bu Tan here](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-023/#:~:text=As%20I%20guessed,ago.%20%5BReuters%5D) – if he can [overhaul the entire board](https://spyglass.org/intel-outside-gelsinger/) as well... Well, the path was perhaps a bit different than I imagined. [While I nailed the Lip-Bu Tan element](https://spyglass.org/intel-lip-bu-tan/), I don't think I possibly could have foreseen President Trump then [*calling for the ouster of Tan*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/intel-ceo-trump-lip-bu-tan.html?ref=spyglass.org) – before [meeting with him](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/intel-ceo-trump-lip-bu-tan.html?ref=spyglass.org) and seeing there was clearly a deal to be done. As Ryan Gould, Josh Wingrove, and Liana Baker report after that meeting: > The Trump administration is in talks with Intel Corp. to have the US government potentially take a stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, helping support the company’s effort to expand domestic manufacturing, according to people familiar with the plan. > > The deal would help shore up Intel’s planned factory hub in Ohio, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The company had once promised to turn that site into the world’s largest chipmaking facility, though it’s been repeatedly delayed. The size of the potential stake isn’t clear. This follows, of course, [the "unprecedented" deal](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) for the US government to get a cut of NVIDIA and AMD chip sales to China. And that itself follows [Tim Cook literally presenting a gold bar to the President](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) at the White House to ensure the erratic tariff threats miss Apple's core business – [again](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/). We live in interesting times. Interesting, stupid, and dangerous times. Still, I'm not sure the government *shouldn't* be helping Intel here. I mean, they already were with the CHIPS Act. But Trump hates the CHIPS Act simply because it's associated with Joe Biden, so... he clearly has been seeking a different way to get involved and get credit. And taking a stake in Intel, rather than just granting them money, is certainly a Trumpian way of getting involved! I still think Intel would be better suited to have a strong and aligned fiscal private partner here [in the vein of Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/intels-white-knight-microsoft/) or [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/intel-strikes-deals/) or [Apple or even NVIDIA](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169453915/could-apple-or-nvidia-save-intel?ref=spyglass.org). But the Trump administration seemingly tried that approach [with TSMC](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/intel-tsmc-tentatively-agree-form-chipmaking-joint-venture?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) and it [didn't seem to go very far](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/17/tsmc-denies-its-talking-to-intel-about-chip-making-joint-venture.html?ref=spyglass.org). So... I hope Intel is ready to make some gold-plated chips! **One more thing:** a lot of those [other predictions](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) are looking pretty good at this point, if I do say so myself... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/0_3-1.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/0_1-3.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/0_3.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/0_2.jpg) Collect them all... ### That First Cellular MacBook Pro May Be Very Close... URL: https://spyglass.org/cellular-macbook-pro/ Last updated: 2025-08-14T20:44:46.000Z [Apple code confirms the first MacBook Pro with 5G is in developmentInternal code from Apple hints at the first 5G-enabled Mac.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/cropped-macworld-favicon.png)MacworldFilipe Esposito![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/cellular-mac-2.jpg)](https://www.macworld.com/article/2878496/apple-code-confirms-the-first-macbook-pro-with-5g-is-in-development.html?ref=spyglass.org) I'm not really sure what to make of the apparent internal code leak at Apple that has led to a slew of chip/product-related scoops in the past 24 hours at both [*MacRumors*](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/14/every-apple-secret-that-leaked-yesterday/?ref=spyglass.org) and [*Macworld*](https://www.macworld.com/?ref=spyglass.org) – more on those below – but this one is especially interesting: > Following the release of its first [in-house 5G modem with the iPhone 16e](https://www.macworld.com/article/2626940/apple-c1-modem-real-world-tests-iphone-16e-download-upload-speeds-performance.html?ref=spyglass.org), rumors have suggested that Apple has been quietly preparing for a major leap forward in its MacBook lineup, one that could finally bring built-in cellular connectivity to its laptops. Internal Apple code seen by Macworld now reveals that the company has indeed been testing an unreleased MacBook Pro model with an M5 Pro chip and Apple’s first 5G modem. Granted, assuming these leaks are legit – and there seem to be too many of them across at least two different publications with good track records on such things for them not to be? – it's entirely possible and likely even probable that Apple is simply *testing* the 5G chip inside of their MacBook Pro lineup. I mean, of course they are. If they're going to eventually release them, [which they are](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/apple-s-modem-chips-pave-way-for-slimmer-iphone-cellular-macs-and-headsets?ref=spyglass.org), they need to start testing at some point and now that they have the in-house built modem... But I also wouldn't dismiss the notion that they could come as early as next year either alongside the M5-powered MacBook Pros (which have been rumored to launch in early 2026 for some time now). Just as with the first MacBooks with Apple Silicon which used the old school MacBook Air chassis, there's a good um, case, to be made that Apple would want to roll out their first cellular modems into MacBook Pro form factors that are tried and tested. And if they're really going to fully redesign the MacBook Pro in 2027, [as has also been rumored](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-10/apple-app-intents-voice-control-feature-for-siri-apps-ios-26-release-timing?cmpid=BBD081025%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250810&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron)... That said, early 2026 is awfully close. Is it possible that Apple does a special mid-cycle update to the MacBook Pro lineup to unveil the first cellular Mac? Or they could just announce it alongside the other "regular" MacBook Pros and launch it a bit later? Certainly, it would be a massive upgrade point for many users, myself included – especially if these M5-powered MacBook Pros otherwise will look the same as the M4s, which looked the same as the M3s, etc. **One more thing:** On the leak topic, again, it's pretty wild that seemingly the following products were revealed via their chip sets: - [New HomePod mini](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/13/homepod-mini-new-chip/?ref=spyglass.org) (with S9, S10, or S11 chip from Apple Watch) - [New Apple TV](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/13/new-apple-tv-coming-later-this-year-with-a17-pro-chip/?ref=spyglass.org) (with A17 Pro chip) - [New Apple Studio Display](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/13/apple-still-working-on-studio-display-2/?ref=spyglass.org) (with [an A19 Pro chip?](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/14/a19-pro-chip-coming-to-studio-display-2/?ref=spyglass.org)) - [New iPad mini](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/13/ipad-mini-a19-pro-chip/?ref=spyglass.org) (also with A19 Pro chip) - [New low-cost iPad](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/14/new-low-cost-ipad-feature-a18-chip/?ref=spyglass.org) (with A18 chip) - [New Apple Vision Pro](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/13/apple-code-confirms-vision-pro-with-m5-chip/?ref=spyglass.org) (with M5 chip) - [New Apple Watch](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/13/apple-watch-s11-chip-info/?ref=spyglass.org) (with S11 chip) - [New Mac Pro](https://www.macworld.com/article/2878416/code-suggests-apple-is-working-on-an-m4-ultra-chip-for-new-mac-pro.html?ref=spyglass.org) (with M4 Ultra chip) Of those, a few things stand out: 1. The new Vision Pro, because while it was wildly assumed to be getting a spec-update (but not a major redesign yet, [beyond perhaps a new strap](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/strap-in-vision-pro-owners?ref=spyglass.org)), that was thought to be an M4 chip, not the soon-to-be-released M5 ([though Ming Chi-Kuo has been saying that for some time now](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-pro-strategy/)). That would give it the top-of-the-line chip Apple makes, of course – and a substantial upgrade over the M2 chip found in the first version. 2. The new Mac Pro with an M4 Ultra chip would give people – well, professionals – a reason to keep buying that machine versus the Mac Studio which has a "mere" M3 Ultra chip inside. 3. The new Apple Studio Display getting an A19 Pro chip seems insane – to the point where it seems like it can't be right? that would be the top-of-the-line chip presumably about to be unveiled in the iPhone 17 Pro lineup. The last Studio Display featured an A13 'Bionic' chip, but that was about three years old at the time of the display's launch. What would giving a monitor a state-of-the-art chip mean? It would have a chip faster than the new Apple TV? Still, [*MacRumors* sounds certain](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/14/a19-pro-chip-coming-to-studio-display-2/?ref=spyglass.org)... ### I Decree: Paramount Should Buy IMAX URL: https://spyglass.org/a-decree-for-paramount-to-buy-imax/ Last updated: 2025-09-24T06:45:29.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/21b33354-217f-451f-bbc5-5fb54a55cd2e.png) Just over a year ago, with Skydance seemingly on the verge of buying Paramount, [I outlined some ideas for how they might scale the combined entities to success](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/). I think it still stands up despite the fact that it took, well, *over a year* for the deal to actually close thanks to some regulatory – um – challenges. Challenges which were finally overcome in – um – [ways](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/). Anyway, with the deal now done, I found my mind drifting back to one of those ideas I had back then... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Perplexity's Perplexing and Positively PR Offer to Buy Chrome URL: https://spyglass.org/i-offer-to-buy-jupiter/ Last updated: 2025-09-23T07:20:28.000Z [ Perplexity Makes Longshot $34.5 Billion Offer for Chrome With its unsolicited bid for Google’s browser, AI startup seeks to take advantage of uncertainty over pending antitrust ruling ![](https://s.wsj.net/img/meta/wsj_favicon.svg) WSJ Katherine Blunt ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-31399985?width=700&size=1.501&pixel_ratio=2) ](https://www.wsj.com/tech/perplexity-ai-google-chrome-offer-5ddb7a22?ref=spyglass.org) I'll give Perplexity one thing: making the offer thirty-four-POINT-five billion dollars is a nice touch. It makes it *seem* precise. Like a business person put a lot of thought into this transparently silly marketing stunt. A [non-serious offer](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1955291580421624239?ref=spyglass.org) would be, say, $30B. But $34.5B? There's clearly math there, somewhere! 🤑 ****Update:** [see more below](#update) on the likely math involved... > Perplexity on Tuesday offered to purchase Google’s Chrome browser for $34.5 billion as it works to challenge the tech giant’s [web-search dominance](https://www.wsj.com/tech/google-search-ai-antitrust-trial-57ec6fdb?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org). > > Perplexity’s offer is significantly more than its own valuation, which is estimated at $18 billion. The company told The Wall Street Journal that several investors including large venture-capital funds had agreed to back the transaction in full. Yeah, I mean if a VC fund were offered the chance to invest in a piece of software with 3.5B active users, they would do it every day of the week. Even if it takes $34.5B? Well, we're narrowing down the funds that *could* help with such a buyout, but sure, why not? It would have the potential to transform Perplexity from [a second-tier AI startup](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) to the first-tier immediately. And that first-tier is currently [worth $300B](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/) (soon, [perhaps to be $500B](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/openai-in-talks-for-share-sale-valuing-startup-at-500-billion?ref=spyglass.org)), [(maybe) $200B](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=In%20a%20world%20where%20xAI%20may%20or%20may%20not%20be%20raising%20at%20%24200B%2C%20it%20certainly%20seems%20like%20Anthropic%20should%20be%20worth%20well%20over%20%24100B%20at%20this%20point.%20I%20don%27t%20make%20the%20valuation%20rules%2C%20but%20they%20are%20relative.%20Might%20a%20new%20mega%20round%20give%20another%20big%20company%2C%20like%20Apple%2C%20a%20way%20to%20invest%3F%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), and [$170B](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/earning-the-right-to-spend-on-ai?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Anthropic%27s%20new%20valuation%20looks%20to%20be%20landing%20closer%20to%20%24170B%2C%20which%20again%20makes%20more%20sense%20relative%20to%20the%20market%20%28which%20makes%20little%20sense%20relative%20to%20anything%20else%29%2C%20though%20if%20xAI%20actually%20gets%20their%20%24200B%20ask%2C%20that%20seems%20a%20bit%20wild.%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), with OpenAI, xAI, and Anthropic, respectively. Perplexity's current [$18B valuation](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search) with Chrome added-on would zoom right past $50B. That sounds good and fine on paper, but how would it actually work? If the VCs are footing the bill for Chrome, presumably they don't then own 100% of it, and instead are giving the money to Perplexity to buy it which would then boost the valuation to something well north of that $50B? Again, given the ceiling with the other top-tier AI startups, there is room to grow here – though all of those other three players actually train frontier models, Perplexity still would not in this scenario. And how certain are we that Perplexity would be able to fully leverage that 3.5B user base? Certainly, there would be some churn – probably **a lot** when people got a new version of Chrome and were confused/weirded out by all the new Perplexity – a brand almost none of those 3.5B users will know – pimping being done inside. And that's *if* the judge lets them move all or even some of that user base over. And if they weren't allowed to do that, what's Chrome worth to Perplexity? The brand certainly has some value, but it's probably closer to $0 than $3.45B! And wait. I'm taking this all way too seriously now. Again, this is clearly a marketing stunt. As it was [the first time Perplexity floated it](https://spyglass.org/ai-web-browser/). And just as it was when they [floated buying TikTok too](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-046-big-day-yuge-day/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Perplexity%20AI,now.%20%5BCNBC%5D). Perplexity loves this shit. And[ the press eats it up](https://www.techmeme.com/250812/p15?ref=spyglass.org#a250812p15). And now I'm eating up the leftovers! Because guess what? [Google is not selling Chrome!](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) So this is like a strawman at an auction. Yes, the judge in the antitrust case against Google is set to rule soon on the Chrome remedy, but it still feels unlikely he will make Google do something so drastic with Chrome. Because it just [doesn't make a ton of sense](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) (though Google is trying like hell to make it make more sense for the judge by [shoving Gemini into Chrome](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/)!). Even if anyone could figure out the math, gifting Chrome to one of the AI players would be like the judge anointing a new king in the space – certainly if he let OpenAI buy it! Maybe there's a solution where a non-profit consortium is set up to manage a spun-off Chrome, much as they do with the Chromium layer that underpins Chrome (and many other browsers – including Perplexity's new one). But how well do non-profit consortiums do when it comes to building and maintaining actual products? (Don't say ChatGPT given OpenAI's "non-profit" status here!) > Estimates of Chrome’s enterprise value vary widely but recent ones have ranged from $20 billion to $50 billion. I actually think Chrome is worth far *more* than that – [to Google](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/). But it's possible that it's also worth far *less* than that to anyone else. Because a huge part of the value of Chrome to Google is not needing to pay other companies for default placement in their browsers – you know, like the $20B+ a year Google pays to Apple right now, [which also may be going away](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) with the antitrust changes. Imagine a world where Chrome doesn't exist, or more to the point, where Google doesn't own Chrome, they're going to be paying tens of billions more to others. Maybe even to Perplexity in this scenario! How much is not paying those fees worth to Google? A lot. Certainly far more than even $34.5B. That said, the value to others is likely in that massive user base. And again, if you remove Google from Chrome, it's hard to know where those users go. Do they stay? A lot of them surely would if Chrome owned by someone else was allowed to simply update the browsers already installed billions of times around the world. But if they had to re-download this newfangled Chrome, the situation gets more complicated, fast. Again, I'm taking this way too seriously! It's not happening. [Just like OpenAI isn't buying Chrome](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/). Still, it's a somewhat savvy, if farcical, move on Perplexity's part: > The Perplexity offer could be an attempt to signal to the judge that there is an interested buyer, should he force a sale. In a letter to Sundar Pichai, chief executive of Google parent Alphabet. Perplexity said its offer to buy Chrome is “designed to satisfy an antitrust remedy in highest public interest by placing Chrome with a capable, independent operator.” They know that the judge has been trying to figure out if a spin-off/sell-off deal was even feasible, and that's why you had all the players coming out of the woodwork to say that they'd be happy to buy Chrome. Of course they would! A weakened Google, even if Perplexity or anyone else can't buy Chrome, is good for Perplexity and all of the other players here – certainly when you consider [what a formidable rival that Google is in AI](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). > Perplexity told Pichai that, as part of the proposed acquisition, it would maintain and support Chromium, the open-source project that supports Chrome and other browsers. It also said that it would continue placing Google as the default search engine within Chrome, though users could change settings. That's another savvy move as it directly answers [a key question I had](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) about all of this selling-off Chrome stuff. Perplexity says it would continue to maintain Chromium – which again, Perplexity itself and many other browsers now use. So that's a good/important thing to signal. For a deal that will never happen. Look, I'm trying to be reasonable here. Perplexity's move is clearly a publicity stunt (which they'd never admit, obviously), and I respect the hustle to continually get outlets like *The Wall Street Journal*, *The New York Times*, and *Bloomberg* to write about your company. And it has the added benefit of adding pressure to the antitrust case, trying to showcase to the judge that others would be willing to buy Chrome from Google – just at the moment he's about to rule, no less. All that said, Perplexity does this type of stuff a lot. Too much, in my opinion. They should focus on building great products and a great, sustainable business. The first product was good. I'm less sold on the other attempts – [including](https://spyglass.org/perplexity-comet-ai-web-browser/), by the way, [their first take on a web browser in Comet](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/), which I got access to last week and am generally *underwhelmed* by – [certainly versus what another AI-first browser, Dia](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/), is doing. Though I will say, Comet *is* a lot like Chrome! A sort of uglier Chrome. I've [long thought](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) it made some sense for Apple to [buy Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) given not just the AI chops, but [the Search element as well](https://spyglass.org/appl/). But I've [always](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) been hesitant about [the cultural fit](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/). And this kind of stuff just adds to that problem. Apple would have to be pretty desperate to buy up a team that [constantly](https://blog.cloudflare.com/perplexity-is-using-stealth-undeclared-crawlers-to-evade-website-no-crawl-directives/?ref=spyglass.org) pulls [such](https://www.niemanlab.org/2025/08/japans-largest-newspaper-yomiuri-shimbun-sues-perplexity-for-copyright-violations/?ref=spyglass.org) shenanigans. Then again, [Apple *is* pretty desperate](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)... --- **Update**: [As Drew Breunig points out on Xitter](https://x.com/dbreunig/status/1955464455208439919?ref=spyglass.org), if you ask Perplexity how many users Chrome has, it cites 3.45B (rather than the 3.5B cited in the *WSJ* report). This certainly *seems* like the way they came to the $34.5B number – they're paying $10 per user – which is arguably more ridiculous than pulling a number out of thin air. Per below, the user number is a rough estimate that is undoubtedly off by some amount. But even that aside, [paying $10/user is **far** below](https://tomtunguz.com/chrome-valuation-safari-comparison/?ref=spyglass.org) what many – [certainly Google!](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/) – estimate such a user to be worth. And again, all of that math assumes that Perplexity would get to move over all of those 3.45B guesstimated users – and if they could, that they could get them all to stick around... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/Screenshot-2025-08-13-at-9.25.22---AM.png) --- **Update August 13, 2025**: And look at that, just a day later and now Perplexity is rumored to be raising more money, [report Rebecca Torrence, Charles Rollet, and Ben Bergman for *BI*](https://www.businessinsider.com/perplexity-valuation-jumps-to-20-billion-in-latest-fundraise-2025-8?ref=spyglass.org). Sadly, it's apparently only at a $20B valuation – [up from the $18B just a month or so ago](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Perplexity%20just%20raised%20more%20money%20at%20%2418B%20%E2%80%93%20just%20weeks%20after%20closing%20a%20round%20at%20%2414B.%20ARR%20is%20said%20to%20be%20%24150M.%20The%20constellations%20keep%20rising...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), which was up from [the $14B just a few weeks before that](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/our-digital-pasts-and-ai-future?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7perplexity-hits-b-valuation) – so are we going to see [a $34.5B raise at $20B post](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:bqdtwrjvjqldbquxyezad735/post/3lwcli2mxys2r?ref=spyglass.org)? Now **that** would be newsworthy. --- **Update September 2, 2025**: The remedies are in and Chrome will not be for sale, it seems... [Google, Apple, and Mozilla Win in the Antitrust Case Google LostChrome stays. Payments stay. Default placement goes. Some Search data goes.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-239.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-Sep-2--2025--11_05_30-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/google-apple-and-mozilla-win-in-the-antitrust-case-google-lost/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Apple Ponders PerplexityA partnership is probably more likely, but they have to at least think about buying here…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-134.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-20-at-11.39.09---PM-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/) [Escalated, the AI Browser Wars Have – QuicklyRight after Dia, Perplexity’s Comet is here – with OpenAI inbound…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-135.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_war_between_web_browsers_cartoon_--ar_43_--v_7_379532db-55ed-4ac8-a27e-7639745058b4_3-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/) [Can the Web Browser Be the Disruptor Yet Again?This time \*against\* Google with AI (and perhaps Microsoft, again)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-136.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_using_a_web_browser_--ar_169_--profile_6kai7g7__2a9b41ab-ceb9-49bf-b81d-9ecd03980425_3-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-web-browser/) ### OpenAI Moves Fast and Breaks ChatGPT URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-gpt-5-backlash/ Last updated: 2025-09-18T19:28:31.000Z When you've been around long enough, you start to notice patterns. So it is in life, so it is on the internet. With that context, I found myself watching [the backlash to the roll-out of GPT-5](https://www.techmeme.com/250811/p1?ref=spyglass.org#a250811p1) within ChatGPT with great amusement. This is, of course, the same general reaction you see when any product of a large enough scale makes changes. The changes can be good or they can be bad. That doesn't really matter. All that matters is the change. If it's not a fundamental law of products, it should be: users hate change. And the more used and loved a product is, the more feelings of hatred the change evokes. So does that mean you should never change things? I mean sure, if you want to die a slow death, that can be a strategy.[1](#one) But obviously your product has to evolve with changing user behavior at various points. You can overdo it, for sure – Snap seems to [consistently](https://www.businessinsider.com/snapchat-rolls-back-redesign-on-ios-2018-5?ref=spyglass.org) run into [this issue](https://www.theverge.com/news/658306/snapchat-simple-redesign-losing-north-american-users?ref=spyglass.org) – but there's a balance. And the products that stand the test of time tend to ride that wave the best. So did OpenAI just wipeout? Well at the highest level, no. They'll be fine. On a scale of zero to [Qwikster](https://www.fastcompany.com/1781145/netflix-splits-dvd-streaming-business-rebrands-qwikster-adds-video-games?ref=spyglass.org), I imagine this is about a three in terms of magnitude. The [recent Sonos software fuck-up](https://www.theverge.com/2025/1/13/24342282/sonos-app-redesign-controversy-full-story?ref=spyglass.org) was probably more like an eight or nine.[2](#two) [Sam Altman acted quickly](https://x.com/sama/status/1954703747495649670?ref=spyglass.org) to rectify the situation here with the easy fix: putting the old model back in place as an option. That's fine. The more troublesome element is that they didn't seem to realize this would happen. Again, history – [certainly the history of software](https://x.com/stevesi/status/1954705739001577545?ref=spyglass.org) and certainly the history of software on the internet – is rife with examples and lessons. The one that immediately jumped to my mind was Facebook. Before they were "Meta", the social network had a long history of rolling out changes to their service and facing major backlash and user revolts. The most famous of these was undoubtedly the first: the roll-out of [the News Feed in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed%5F%28Facebook%29?ref=spyglass.org). It seems crazy to think that there was backlash against it now as it became both the most vital part of the product and one of the best ideas in the history of the internet – at least when it came to engagement and monetization. But there was – [oh boy was there](https://techcrunch.com/2006/09/06/facebook-users-revolt-facebook-replies/?ref=spyglass.org)! Fast forward nearly 20 years and Meta is a $2T company today *because of the News Feed*. But if they had listened to the users... It's all just a variation of the [perhaps apocryphal Henry Ford quote](https://hbr.org/2011/08/henry-ford-never-said-the-fast?ref=spyglass.org), "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." That's just an offshoot of users hating change – to the point where they can't really think about or imagine why something new and different might actually be better. At the same time, the GPT-5 roll-out was different than the News Feed roll-out because it was less of a UI change and more of a UX change. It was a mostly – but not fully – behind-the-scenes model swap. So in that regard, it's perhaps more akin to the many algorithm tweaks that Facebook has done throughout the years in the name of boosting engagement in that News Feed. "Pivot to Video" was a big part of this for a while, but there were other changes over the years, such as when [Facebook tried to snuff out Twitter](https://techcrunch.com/2010/05/13/twitter-facebook/?ref=spyglass.org) by [making their feed much more akin](https://techcrunch.com/2010/08/24/facebook-follow/?ref=spyglass.org) to a real-time news and micro-update feed. There were many, many other such updates, all of which had their own levels of backlash. All of which were reported at the time to be [the end of Facebook](https://techcrunch.com/2010/06/05/facebook-steve-jobs-dog-day-afternoon/?ref=spyglass.org). And [Facebook just kept on growing](https://techcrunch.com/2010/07/14/quit-facebook-someday/?ref=spyglass.org), to the tune of 3 billion users and still, somehow, growing even now! But again, this ChatGPT update wasn't entirely just a behind-the-scenes algorithm update, like Facebook or even Google used to do.[3](#three) OpenAI also took away something which was there previously: the model picker. Well, technically it was still there, but only to decide between a few GPT-5 flavors. Whereas before it was... [well a mess](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/)! And so it's completely understandable why OpenAI wanted to change that – the UI was becoming like Microsoft Office, with toolbar cruft galore! Clearly if AI was really advancing towards AGI, it would be able to figure out the best model for a user's query on its own. Of course, that fucks with user agency. Which is always a tricky thing, but *especially* tricky when it comes to AI and all the debates surrounding the technology. Clearly, a large subset of users liked being able to decide which model they wanted to use as it gave them at least the feeling of more control. And many built their own workflows around access to particular versions of particular models, models which OpenAI just took from their hands in an instant. I mean, obviously that was dumb. Even if the overall change was the right one from a product perspective. Both things can be true – and are here. [Casey Newton at *Platformer* has the reasonable and obvious list](https://www.platformer.news/gpt-5-backlash-openai-lessons/?ref=platformer-newsletter) of how OpenAI *should* handle such changes going forward. They basically boil down to giving users options – *especially paying users*, as [John Gruber notes at *Daring Fireball*](https://daringfireball.net/2025/08/openai%5Fchatgpt%5Fmodels%5Femotional%5Fattachment?ref=spyglass.org). And lest you risk the aforementioned Microsoft Office UI cruft, you set a time period for sunsetting older models – a lesson which, again, basically every company at a large enough scale has learned over time. I also might argue – [as I have in the past](https://spyglass.org/strawberry-openai-o1/) – that the general concept of the model picker with [OpenAI's obtuse model naming strategy](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-naming-scheme/), is beyond confusing for "regular" users. As I wrote last February, [outlining the potential "Great AI UI Unification" which OpenAI clearly needed](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/): > Well, now we're up to eight options – six in the main drop-down and still those same two "left-overs" in the sub-menu. And technically it's **nine options** if you include the "Temporary chat" toggle. > > And depending on which model you choose to use, you get other options from there, as various buttons will be enabled in the message box for 'Web Search' and now 'Deep Research'. Oh and I forgot the '+' button, which has more options depending on where you're using it. And, of course, there's the '...' button in this box too, giving you a sub-menu for the 'Image' or 'Canvas' options. Oh yes, and [Voice Mode](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/). (And voice transcription on certain devices.) > > Forget Microsoftian, it's downright Gordian! And while some of those "regular" users have clearly learned how to use that system out of need, assuming that OpenAI intends to grow ChatGPT even beyond its current massive scale, this one-model-to-rule-them-all UI is still undoubtedly the right change for the masses. You just need to show more transparency around what that model is doing and picking, per Newton's point and what [Altman has said](https://x.com/sama/status/1954602880952115603?ref=spyglass.org) they were going to do (and [one of the true takeaways from the "DeepSeek Moment"](https://spyglass.org/deepseek-is-seeking-you/)). The only thing I might add is the idea that with [OpenAI's move to "open source"](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/) (read: open weight) some of their models, you could give the option for users to download older models that they loved for whatever reason, just with the disclaimer that they're older and undoubtedly less performant and potentially out of date... (presuming they could be cleared from a security and risk perspective to run locally, of course). Back to what I wrote in February: > Imagine this: an input box with no options. You simply type something and ChatGPT figures out your intent. Insert the joke about needing to ask ChatGPT which ChatGPT model to use – except, really! That's how it should more or less work, albeit mostly transparently (unless you want to see the chain-of-thought!) to users. I mean, obviously there will be some options, but those will be more meant for power users, as is the case with many tools. > > The timing of this revelation was also interesting in light of [a new report by Stephanie Palazzolo for The Information](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-strikes-back?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) revealing that the reason why Anthropic has been so slow to release a reasoning model is because they're aiming to take the same general unified approach that Altman outlined above. And it's coming soon. Model-pickers are so 2024\. 2025 is going to be all about the model picking itself. It is interesting that when Anthropic [finally rolled out](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-7-sonnet?ref=spyglass.org) their [similar change](https://spyglass.org/openai-gpt-45/), there wasn't this level of backlash. Yes, yes, [there was a "funeral" for Claude 3 Sonnet](https://www.wired.com/story/claude-3-sonnet-funeral-san-francisco/?ref=spyglass.org), but that's clearly more tongue-in-cheek. But they also kept the model-picker UI, just buried it, and clearly part of the difference in reaction here to the actual model transparency change can probably be chalked up towards [just how much more](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) – and how much more varied – usage ChatGPT gets versus Claude. More to today's issue, OpenAI clearly missed the bit about options for "power users". And really, [any idiot could have figured out what to do here, back in April](https://spyglass.org/openai-chatgpt-naming-scheme/): > I just want a prompt box and I want ChatGPT to sort out what model to use behind the scenes based on what I'm asking for 99% of use cases. Give us the full chain-of-thought flow to instill trust that ChatGPT is smart enough to make the right call here. For the other 1%, there can be some sort of streamlined model picker. This will mainly be for power users, obviously. But with [ChatGPT now going](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/) fully [mainstream](https://spyglass.org/ai-copyright-debate/), this all clearly needs to happen [pronto](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/). On the surface, it's strange that OpenAI didn't realize how their implementation would result in such a backlash. But when you step back, you can probably see why: again, the product tweaks are clearly the right thing to do going forward and presumably the company was so busy hard-charging towards this important launch that they didn't stop to really consider that they're now one of those companies with a product that is at a scale where such changes are going to be hated. Always. Again, no matter if they're "right" or "wrong". They're just "different" and people generally hate change. And at scale, such hatred – even if just by a vocal minority – always spirals into backlash. And yes, it's undoubtedly further exacerbated here by the fact that AI is a different beast when it comes to the feelings it elicits – good and bad – from people. And the fact that some people are already integrating it so deeply into their lives – both professionally and *personally* – that Thanos-snapping a model out of existence is harsh to the point where some people might even consider it cruel. That's not a judgement either way, it just seemingly is what it is here. [Joanna Stern correctly read the room in this regard in her newsletter](https://joannastern.beehiiv.com/p/gpt-5-and-when-your-favorite-ai-dies-624d9b6db09594e3?%5Fbhlid=a964720f6cf5017fd235da1fd8b7f294aa7ad255&last%5Fresource%5Fguid=Post%3A79a0872d-237a-4bfe-890d-8ef12eeb9e38&utm%5Fcampaign=gpt-5-and-when-your-favorite-ai-dies&utm%5Fmedium=newsletter&utm%5Fsource=joannastern.beehiiv.com) a couple days before OpenAI did. At the same time, it's important for OpenAI to have the right read of this room *now*. This isn't a "revert everything" moment like with Qwikster, it's a "make some tweaks", learn some lessons, and move forward moment. Just like Facebook used to do. But let's hope those tweaks are more on the subtle side and not like what Facebook would do in their privacy controls area. An area which, after intense legal and political scrutiny, now makes that Microsoft Office toolbar look like a beautiful, seamless, and simple bit of UI. I'll end by returning one last time to the end of [my UI post from February](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/): > In that way, I'm reminded of Google. It's easy to forget now, but one of the key aspects of the actual product was the spartan design. It was a search box. That's it. None of the noise that Yahoo had. None of the cruft of [AltaVista](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AltaVista?ref=spyglass.org). Just a name and a search box. And that's largely still true 25 years later! There are options, but mainly after you let Google try to sort it out for you. > > In fact, I think one of the key understated elements of Google throughout the years is just how good it is at figuring out your intent. It's honestly a better spell checker than spell checkers are. You can type something that's borderline gibberish and Google will usually figure it out. Those types of intangibles breeds user trust and usage. ChatGPT is actually quite good at it too, so they should just remove some of the creeping cruft. Well, they did. But they moved too fast and broke things – namely some user workflows and trust. But again, that original Google Search box is what they should aspire to here. Probably before [Google itself does](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/)... 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [“Open” Comes Back to Bite GoogleAs badly as I now want to bite into a Chick-fil-A thanks to the judge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-129.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/OS_TextImage-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) [Tim Cook’s Golden GiftThe fealty payments get more ridiculous – and embarrassing…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-131.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-08-07-at-3.41.17---PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) [The Captains of CapEx...and then there’s Apple.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-132.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/a0571ace-17e0-4bc2-9daf-26c946ce5065-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/) [The Art of the Quid Pro QuoForget tariffs, Trump gets a direct taste of NVIDIA & AMD Sales…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-133.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_Create_a_cheesy_1980s_mall_glamour_shot_foggy_soft_ligh_f03aad52-68b6-41b0-9975-5cf67f5d97b5_3-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/) [OpenAI Figures Out Their Path Back to “Open”The open weight model is important but also a bit subversive…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-130.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_open_road_--ar_43_--v_7_f70c237f-54c5-4bce-ae32-991501f930bc_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/) --- 1 Yes, yes, there are some products that almost stubbornly refuse to change. And sometimes it can actually reinforce the user love over a long enough period of time, sort of like a warm blanket that users know will always be there. But for every Wikipedia, you run the risk of being Craigslist, which gets disrupted quite easily in a fast-evolving world, especially on the internet. Also, Wikipedia is currently facing its own challenges in the age of AI... 2 Honestly, the Sonos situation was probably even worse than Qwikster debacle because that was a relatively straightforward fix for Netflix – just don't make the change. Sonos seemingly did a ton of work behind the scenes to make their software changes which were incredibly hard to just roll back – [something which my friend, Tom Conrad, has been doing the lord's work as the new CEO of the company to try to fix.](https://investors.sonos.com/news-and-events/investor-news/latest-news/2025/Sonos-Appoints-Tom-Conrad-as-Chief-Executive-Officer/default.aspx?ref=spyglass.org) And the brand trust was hit harder as a result, especially with how vital music can be in certain social settings (weddings, parties, etc). Anyway, "Qwikster" is just more fun to write and make fun of for its ridiculous name. 3 Google's algorithm tweaks would often cause an uproar within the SEO community more than with the user base, because those changes were often trying to stay ahead of spammers gaming SEO! But also, as we're now seeing more clearly with the AI changes, many sites that previously lived off of Google traffic are up-in-arms when such tweaks change those dynamics... ### Disney & Fox Bundle to Back Into Venu URL: https://spyglass.org/espn-fox-one-sports-bundle/ Last updated: 2025-08-12T11:49:42.000Z [ESPN And Fox Will Bundle Their Soon-To-Launch Streaming ServicesIn the latest streaming milestone, ESPN and Fox are forming a bundle of their soon-to-launch services.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-32.png)DeadlineDade Hayes![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ESPN-FOX-ONE-1.jpg)](https://deadline.com/2025/08/fox-one-espn-bundle-streaming-sports-1236483398/?ref=spyglass.org) [A year ago](https://spyglass.org/do-you-venu/), Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery were gearing up to launch Venu, a streaming bundle of sports offerings from the trio. The idea of a sports bundle has [always made sense](https://spyglass.org/sports-hulu/) – after all, it's essentially what the cable television bundle itself is for many consumers. But Venu was sort of a mess [from the name](https://spyglass.org/venu/) on down. So much so, that it [never saw the light of day](https://spyglass.org/venu-rip/). And yet, it sort of lives on... > In the latest [streaming](https://deadline.com/tag/streaming/?ref=spyglass.org) milestone, [ESPN](https://deadline.com/tag/espn/?ref=spyglass.org) and Fox are forming a bundle of their soon-to-launch services, Deadline has learned. > > [Fox One](https://deadline.com/tag/fox-one/?ref=spyglass.org), which brings together sports, news and entertainment from across Fox’s broadcast and cable channels, and ESPN’s dramatically beefed-up direct-to-consumer offering are both launching on August 21\. Fox One is priced at $19.99 a month and ESPN has an introductory price of $29.99. > > The bundle will launch October 2 and cost $39.99 a month, according to a person familiar with the rollout. For those keeping score at home, this is basically Venu minus Warner Bros. Discovery content. And given that WBD [quickly started losing](https://spyglass.org/disney-subleases-a-sports-loft-to-warner/) the rights to sports content shortly after Venu was announced, that makes sense. Once they [lost the NBA rights](https://spyglass.org/nba-amazon-tnt/), it made little sense to still include WBD in such a bundle. In fact, WBD subsequently [decided](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/warner-bros-discovery-splits-in-two?ref=spyglass.org) that their own entire company didn't really make sense as a bundle, as they're now splitting into – wait for it – [Warner Bros. and Discovery, again](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/microsofts-miss-minutes?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Remember%20when%20%27HBO,%5BTHR%5D). Add to this the fact that both ESPN and Fox are on the verge of launching their own streaming services – on the same day, later this month, no less. Both having their own offerings and then giving an option to bundle then makes a lot more sense than trying to form a new company/joint-venture around that bundle – especially since ESPN had [already announced](https://spyglass.org/disneys-has-a-lot-of-streaming-services/) that [they would be](https://spyglass.org/espn-plus-plus-plus/) launching [the stand-alone ESPN streaming service](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) *separately* from Venu. And this new bundle will look more like marketing rather than an attempt by these power players in sports to crowd out the rest of the market – though Disney literally settled that issue as well [thanks to the Fubo/Hulu + Live TV deal](https://spyglass.org/venu-vidi-vici-fubo/). Still, others might take issue with the power this new bundle will have over sports... I realize I'm saying all of this and this new bundle is going to be a whole... $3 cheaper than the price Venu was targeting. A price which myself, and many others, thought was too expensive. But again, that had just as much to do with how much of a confusing mess Venu was. When you know that ESPN's new service is going to cost $29.99 and you know that Fox One is going to be $19.99, this looks like a nice $10 or so discount for anyone that was going to subscribe to both. At the same time, it's not exactly a slam dunk "sports bundle" as Fox One will also include other Fox content such as *Fox News*, if you're into that sort of thing. Still, it's a pretty compelling offering simply given Fox's NFL rights – which will augment [the NFL rights Disney just expanded in a major way](https://spyglass.org/espn-nfl-streaming/) thanks to the ESPN equity deal with the league. There will still be games on CBS, and NBC/Peacock, and Prime TV, and Netflix, but this one bundle will give you a lot of the meat and potatoes. It moves ESPN one-step closer to being [the de-facto sports bundle](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/). Can [Amazon counter](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/)? [The Sports Bundle is Expensive, Incomplete, and IncoherentWho is Venu actually for?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-123.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-TV-Sports-Bundle-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/do-you-venu/) [Venu, Vidi, ViciDisney aims to conquer streaming sports with endless confusing options![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-124.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_mickey_mouse_throwing_a_baseball_through_a_TV_smashing__5b2ae3c2-bcd9-462b-9376-ae0bfe274688_2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/venu-vidi-vici-fubo/) [ESPN’s Path to Be \*the\* Streaming Sports BundleIt’s not exactly “clear”, as Amazon may battle them along the way…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-125.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ESPN-logo-living-room--3--8.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) [ESPN Minus the PlusDisney keeps the branding simple, for once…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-127.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-9--2025--11_25_40-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) [ESPN Looks to Ride the NFL to Streaming SuccessThere was one key partnership to make the new ESPN streaming service a must-have on day one…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-126.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/01j30pc0kes9ns0j2cqv-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/espn-nfl-streaming/) ### The Art of the Quid Pro Quo URL: https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-quid-pro-quo/ Last updated: 2025-09-23T07:19:48.000Z [Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sale revenues to US governmentChipmakers agree to unusual arrangement to secure export licences from Trump administration![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/ftlogo-v1-3Abrand-ft-logo-square-coloured-12)Financial Times![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net-2Fproduction-2F4689e47a-585b-4545-9645-aab429cd8a02.jpg)](https://www.ft.com/content/cd1a0729-a8ab-41e1-a4d2-8907f4c01cac?ref=spyglass.org) A few days ago, [I found myself](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/) having to apologize to Mark Zuckerberg. As bad as [his ass-kissing](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-speech-about-face-book/) has been [with the current administration](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/) and [Donald Trump in particular](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/), Tim Cook was able to one-up him by offering the President a literal gold bar. In a ceremony at the White House. In the Oval Office in front of the media, for all to see. We all know why Cook was doing it – a quid pro quo to get those pesky tariff threats to go away... [for now](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/) – but it was no less stunning. And now I must apologize to Cook, as now he too has been one-upped. As Demetri Sevastopulo and Michael Acton report: > Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15 per cent of the revenues from chip sales in China, as part of an unusual arrangement with the Trump administration to obtain export licences for the semiconductors. > > The two chipmakers agreed to the financial arrangement as a condition for obtaining export licences for the Chinese market that were granted last week, according to people familiar with the situation, including a US official. > > The US official said Nvidia agreed to share 15 per cent of the revenues from H20 chip sales in China and AMD will provide the same percentage from MI308 chip revenues. Two people familiar with the arrangement said the Trump administration had not yet determined how to use the money. Yes, we've gone from paying Trump compliments to paying Trump in gold bars to just straight-up paying him. I mean, sure, the money is technically going to the government – we think! – but Trump will get to decide how to use it. He could, say, buy more upgrades to Air Force One. Or more tacky gold shit in which to plaster the White House. A new Presidential golf course? Why not? Just how much money are we talking here? [As Tripp Mickle reports for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/technology/us-government-nvidia-amd-chips-china.html?ref=spyglass.org): > The deal agreed to last week could funnel more than $2 billion to the U.S. government. Nvidia was expected to sell more than $15 billion worth of its H20 chip to China through the end of the year, and AMD was expected to sell $800 million, according to Bernstein Research. $2.8B for simply allowing NVIDIA and AMD to sell their wares in China? That's a nice little taste! Never mind all those national security concerns we've heard about endlessly for months from the Trump administration, there are deals to be done! Sure, they could just tariff the hell out of the sales, but why risk further pissing off China ahead of some important trade talks? Also, quid pro quo is much easier to execute with individual companies. Back to Sevastopulo and Acton: > The quid pro quo arrangement is unprecedented. According to export control experts, no US company has ever agreed to pay a portion of their revenues to obtain export licences. But the deal [fits a pattern](https://www.ft.com/content/4273254b-6e1f-4cb1-bca7-19c7389c719a?ref=spyglass.org) in the Trump administration where the president urges companies to take measures, such as domestic investments, for example, to prevent the imposition of tariffs in an effort to bring in jobs and revenue to America. > > AMD did not respond to a request for comment. Nvidia did not deny that it had agreed to the arrangement. It said: “We follow rules the US government sets for our participation in worldwide markets.” Translation: what choice do we have? Jensen Huang had tried making the argument that allowing chip sales in China would actually bolster the US position in AI, insuring American technology and companies remained at the forefront. And it seemed like that argument – at least for the less-powerful H20 chips – [eventually won the day with Trump](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/technology/nvidia-ai-chip-sales-china.html?ref=spyglass.org). And then the administration, despite saying NVIDIA [was good to go](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168483112/i-quote?ref=spyglass.org), just decided it wouldn't issue the licenses to let the company sell those chips. So now they get that taste of the action and we're good to go. Huang probably better [pray Trump doesn't alter the deal any further](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D8TEJtQRhw&ref=spyglass.org). **One more thing:** while such an arrangement may be "unprecedented", now that the precedent has been set, you can bet it will not be the last! In fact, a certain deal that has been in the works for months and months also involving China – [TikTok](https://spyglass.org/tag/tiktok/) – is just sitting right there... [Trump has been floating](https://spyglass.org/tricktok/) the idea for the past year that [in order](https://spyglass.org/the-tiktok-gameshow/) for that deal to happen, [the US would also need a piece of the action](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-047-for-the-road/#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%A8%F0%9F%87%B3%20Donald%20Trump,...%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). And actually, [he was floating that idea back in 2020](https://500ish.com/tiktok-and-microsofts-clock-c4c9fd082b89?ref=spyglass.org) when the issue with TikTok first arose – and [Microsoft was the one back then](https://5ish.org/p/microsoft-sells-its-soul-to-buy-tiktok?ref=spyglass.org) more than happy to engage in the quid pro quo. It's a slightly different situation – I mean, maybe? – in that [it would likely involve](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lg476qf56k2g?ref=spyglass.org) an ownership stake for the US Government (Treasury?) rather than a cut of sales. But then again, who knows after this latest maneuver. It all seems more likely now.[1](#one) As do [more quid pro quos](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/)... --- **Update**: Not only did President Trump confirm the news about the cut of sales he negotiated, [he said that he started out asking for a 20% cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-nvidia-20percent-cut-h20-obsolete-chip.html?ref=spyglass.org) before Huang was able to talk him down a bit. Also apparently on the table: [another potential deal for NVIDIA's more advanced "Blackwell" chips](https://www.ft.com/content/0dbd7fee-66b0-4e08-916f-debfbb580f8c?ref=spyglass.org). Albeit ones "enhanced in a negative way" – lol, okay – if the price, for the US government, is right... You can imagine people on both sides of the aisle are going to go ballastic over this notion. --- **Update August 14, 2025**: And now the Trump administration is apparently looking to get inside of Intel as well... [The US Government Inside IntelTrump keeps right on wheeling and dealing with tech companies…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-138.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/177248a6-4e25-40ad-8a5d-44c385ffaaf2.png)](https://spyglass.org/intel-bail-out/) --- 1 Presumably, look for a "Golden Share" just like the administration got [in the recent U.S. Steel/Nippon Steel deal](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/business/us-steel-nippon-steel-partnership-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org). Trump was pretty excited about that deal: "We have a golden stock. We have a golden share, which I control, or the president controls. Now I’m a little concerned whoever the president might be, but that gives you total control." ### The Captains of CapEx URL: https://spyglass.org/the-captains-of-capex/ Last updated: 2025-09-17T06:43:10.000Z [Six months ago](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/), I laid out the current state of CapEx spend amongst the players in Big Tech. Back then, for their fiscal 2025 years, they looked like this: - **Meta**: $65B - **Google**: $75B - **Microsoft**: $80B - **Amazon**: $100B Amazon was clearly an outlier in that group, but that also makes some sense given that their capital expenditures extend far beyond data center build outs – aside from their actual warehouses, they also remain the largest overall cloud player by a pretty good margin (though CEO Andy Jassy had said that the "vast majority" of that CapEx spend would be going towards AI spend). Two names not on this list? NVIDIA and Apple. NVIDIA is straightforward. They're the *beneficiaries* of a huge portion of that CapEx spend by the players above, as everyone buy sup their chips as fast as they can produce them. That, in turn, has made NVIDIA by far the largest company in the world right now in terms of market cap. At the highest level, it makes some sense: four of the other largest companies in the world are spending record amounts of money, and a lot of that is directly tied to, *if not directly going to*, NVIDIA. But one company remains an outlier: Apple. Back then, Apple was still the most valuable company in the world at $3.5T. Now they've been [lapped by not just NVIDIA](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/), but also Microsoft. Why? AI, of course. In fact, NVIDIA has been *well over $1T ahead of Apple* for quite some time now. Still, Apple remains the third most valuable company in the world. And thanks to [some recent kissing of Donald Trump's ring](https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/), they're nearly back to that $3.5T mark after a bad year stock performance-wise. Their CapEx spend? Even after [their own debacles with AI](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) have now been exposed? Largely unchanged. As I wrote six moths ago: > The other is the king of the hill: **Apple**. At $3.5T, if they were more in line with their peers, you'd think they'd be spending well north of $100B in CapEx this year. Instead, they're likely to be closer to **$12B**. That's not a typo. [They've gone from](https://www.macroaxis.com/financial-statements/AAPL/Capital-Expenditure?ref=spyglass.org) $9B two years ago, to something like $11B last year. And extrapolating out from the Q1 numbers this year, you get to around $12B. > > We all know that Apple [isn't playing](https://spyglass.org/apple-q3-2024/) the [same AI game](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-is-here-kinda/) as the rest, choosing instead to offload a lot of work and capabilities [to partners](https://spyglass.org/openai-ios-chatgpt-upgrade/), but it's staggering just [how much less money they're spending on it](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/01/apple-spending-more-on-ai-but-remains-behind-its-silicon-valley-peers.html?ref=spyglass.org) relative to their peers. [Perhaps this is prudent!](https://spyglass.org/apple-earnings-q1-2025/) And Wall Street certainly rewarded them post-DeepSeek, while dinging basically everyone else. But it [may](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) also be [foolish](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/). I'm not saying they have to spend $120B on AI, but you know, maybe more than a tenth of that (much of which likely isn't even related to AI, but their other CapEx needs)? Well, two quarterly reports later, and Apple's CapEx is... projected to be somewhere between [$11B](https://www.ft.com/content/d838a139-3f46-4570-b84f-a88dbb451ca5?ref=spyglass.org) \- [$14B](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/tim-cook-apple-ai-acquisitions.html?ref=spyglass.org) for the year. Basically unchanged. Meanwhile, their Big Tech peers as of the most recent quarterly earnings: - **Meta**: $70B - **Google**: $85B - **Microsoft**: $88B - **Amazon**: $118B[1](#one) Everyone revised CapEx spend upwards – and fairly significantly.[2](#two) How significantly? Well, just the increases – *I repeat,* *just the increases* – are close to or above Apple's overall CapEx spend for the year. Amazon spent over $30B on CapEx last quarter, which implies a spent rate over $120B at this point. Meta, for their part, already said they expect to be above the $100B mark in the next year (which puts [their wild 'Godfather'](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) [talent offers](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/) into [some context](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/)). Microsoft? After Satya Nadella ended up [indeed "good" for his $80B](https://www.geekwire.com/2025/im-good-for-my-80-billion-what-microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-really-meant-by-his-stargate-zinger/?ref=spyglass.org) – again, coming in above that spend for the year – he's now expecting to be spending around $120B next year on CapEx. Google has only said they expect the CapEx number to go up again next year, but didn't give a specific range. So *at the very least*, over the next year, all of this spend looks like: - **Google**: $85B+ - **Meta**: $100B+ - **Microsoft**: $120B+ - **Amazon**: $120B+ We're clearly well past $400B in CapEx spend next year for those four companies alone. And it might end up past $500B. A half-trillion dollars. Almost all on AI. **Apple? Per their comments in their earnings call, they're committed to ramping up such spend – but not "exponentially". I'd be pretty surprised if it passes $20B for the year. It might not pass $15B.** That's not really a commentary on if it's the right or wrong strategy – it literally could still go either way at this point – it's just rather insane that their spending levels are 1/5th to 1/10th that of their immediate peer group. Yes, Apple has a different strategy – a "hybrid" approach, as they like to say. Which is just a fancy way of saying that they offload a bunch of that spend (and thus, compute) to partners – including many of these competing companies. But, I mean, they really have to have a lot of conviction in their own game plan not to be going after owning AI in the same way that those competitors are right now. Again, they might be right! The others might spend themselves into oblivion. Probably not, but they could very well prove to be misguided in spending *this much* to build out capabilities that become more commoditized over time. [It hasn't played out that way to date](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/), but that doesn't mean it won't at some point. At the very least, Wall Street might turn on them and start hitting them hard on that spend, [just as they did with the streaming services post-pandemic](https://spyglass.org/is-ai-spend-the-new-streaming-spend/)... And if that happens, Apple could be sitting pretty – having perhaps spent less in a decade on CapEx than their peers/rivals will have spent in a year at that point. Of course, there's a flipside to such equations too. If AI ends up as the most transformative technology of all time and Apple is beholden to those peers/rivals to get access to such tech, that would be... not great for them! And that will be exacerbated if that tech leads to [the creation of new devices](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) that push the world beyond the smartphone. I'm not saying that's particularly likely at this point, but it's the risk Apple is taking here. Of course, they would say – and, in fact, [*they are saying*](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/) – that they often come late to markets and technology, focusing on the best product. [I'm a dead horse on this point](https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/), but I just think AI will play out differently than they think it will. Yes, if the tech is eventually commoditized, that could work. But if not, Apple is always going to find themselves behind the eight ball. And more importantly, if they don't have [the right talent in-house](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) to harness such tech, the problems are going to be exacerbated. And well, they [keep losing such talent](https://www.ft.com/content/6b9ce8ce-a327-40c1-a8a1-579c2727fc60?ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, I'm still not saying Apple has to spend $100B+ a year on CapEx to train frontier AI models – it may end up being the smart play *not* doing that! But I am saying that it's eye-opening and seemingly risky that Apple clearly isn't truly trying to compete here – as the CapEx numbers illuminate. And the outcome seems very binary. They're either very right. Or very wrong. --- 1 While Amazon didn't technically change their guidance, during their recent Q2 2025 earnings call, CFO Brian Olsavsky, said the $31.4B spent on CapEx for the quarter is "reasonably representative" of the CapEx rate for the rest of the year, which would put Amazon around $118B. 2 It's more complicated than it seems because each of these companies are on slightly different fiscal calendars. ### Tim Cook's Golden Gift URL: https://spyglass.org/my-god-how-embarrassing/ Last updated: 2025-09-16T07:03:52.000Z First, I simply must apologize to Mark Zuckerberg. As [embarrassing](https://spyglass.org/mark-zuckerbergs-totally-neutral-very-political-letter/) and [cringe-worthy](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) as [his shows of fealty](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-speech-about-face-book/) to Donald Trump may have been in the past, they don't hold a candle to the show Tim Cook just put on – in the Oval Office, no less. I mean, [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9DrCgWtOUw&ref=spyglass.org) is just so comically pathetic that it almost makes you wonder if Cook has been brainwashed... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### OpenAI Figures Out Their Path Back to "Open" URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-open-weight-model/ Last updated: 2025-09-16T07:03:30.000Z Ahead of what is [clearly](https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1953139020231569685?ref=spyglass.org) the GPT-5 launch tomorrow, when all the oxygen will be sucked out of the AI news room, I thought it was worth pointing out a few things about OpenAI's "open source" [launch this week](https://www.techmeme.com/250805/p34?ref=spyglass.org#a250805p34). First and foremost, OpenAI is "open" again! Obviously, that's not entirely true. But within the AI world, "open source" has come to mean "open weight", thanks in no small part to [Mark Zuckerberg's endless rhetoric](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) touting the former while meaning the latter [for Meta's Llama models](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/). That is, Meta was happy for anyone to see how the sausage was made, but not the ingredients that went into it. And again, this is now the pretty standard industry practice. It wasn't always this way. And, in fact, OpenAI was seemingly set up to be the fully and *actual* "open" alternative to what Google was about to be doing after they purchased DeepMind back in 2014 (which Facebook/Meta also tried to acquire, by the way). But the reality of the world quickly set in. Not only did OpenAI find it was going to be hard to actually compete as a true non-profit – hence, [Microsoft entering the picture](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) – there also arose very real questions about open sourcing technology with such profound implications for society. Including some very negative potential side effects if anyone had full access to such technology. And so true "open" went out the window, and partial "open" took its place. The last time OpenAI released any such model was *six years ago* with GPT-2\. But now they're back again, with the industry seemingly coalesced around "open weight" models that are distilled from and/or offshoots of non-open flagship models becoming the standard industry practice. Meta was trying to run a different playbook by open-weighting their actual flagship model, but [it didn't work as they had planned](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) and now they're [spending billions](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) of dollars to try to [get back into](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) the frontier model race towards [AGI/Superintelligence](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). They're still saying they're committed to "open source" because they're [undoubtedly going to run](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) the same playbook of OpenAI and others here: locking down their flagship models while open-weighting subsets of those models. To be clear, this is still important and potentially dangerous work. [As Casey Newton writes in *Platformer*](https://www.platformer.news/open-ai-gpt-oss-open-source/?ref=spyglass.org): > Conversations about AI safety often focus on what happens when models become more powerful. Perhaps equally important, though, is what happens when they become *smaller*. Until recently, AI models that could be used in service of cyberattacks or other mischief were only accessible via large platforms that could detect misuse and cut off the offenders. Over the past several months, though, frontier labs have released powerful models that can be run on a commercial laptop, without any oversight from the lab at all. It's not just that these "open source" models are "open", it's that they're *smaller* variants which can be run on machines that don't need to be superclusters in the cloud. You can run the smaller variant of OpenAI's model on your MacBook. That's both awesome and potentially terrifying. At the same time, they're limiting these even further by making them text-only, but text is probably powerful enough at this point to cause real problems if these models are state-of-the-art – which, they're close, if not quite there. This is also all one hell of a counter-punch, at least narrative-wise, by OpenAI against Meta. As we all know, [Meta is trying to poach](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) seemingly anyone and everyone [from their rival](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/), and it's [somewhat working](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) and [somewhat not](https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/). Sam Altman can counter with money, but more powerful might be the notion of making a splash in "open source" at the same time that Meta is likely moving away from it. And in a related vein, this move puts OpenAI in a much more friendly position with those who care about such "open" elements of AI. When you're the overall market leader, [as OpenAI clearly is right now](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/), it's a small but important bit of optics. I find all of this particularly fascinating given that [Google just got hit hard](https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/) for their own "open" promises around Android back in the day. It's a different market and different world, but it showcases that for all the obvious love "open" gets, it's also not so cut and dry – might I suggest Dario Amodei's thoughts on "open source" [on the *Big Technology* podcast a couple weeks ago](https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-ais-potential-openai-rivalry/id1522960417?i=1000719782760&ref=spyglass.org) – and it likely won't be for OpenAI – again – either. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/08/mgs22_an_open_road_--ar_43_--v_7_f70c237f-54c5-4bce-ae32-991501f930bc_1.png) ### "Open" Comes Back to Bite Google URL: https://spyglass.org/open-android-play-store-google/ Last updated: 2025-11-06T13:49:08.000Z For the past year or so, it has been easy to overlook a court case that Google lost – because there has been a far more high-profile case involving the federal government and antitrust changes. Actually, *there are two of those*. And Google has [already lost one of those as well](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/). So by comparison, a case between two companies seems like it would be smaller stakes, right? Maybe. Maybe not. Especially when the company on the other side of Google is Epic... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Marvel, We Have a Superhero Problem URL: https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/ Last updated: 2025-09-13T08:02:51.000Z [‘Fantastic Four’ Sinks 66% From Box Office Opening WeekendDespite strong reception, Marvel’s latest film isn’t holding as well as “Superman”![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/the_wrap_symbol_black_bkg.png)TheWrapJeremy Fuster![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fantastic-four-joseph-quinn.jpg)](https://www.thewrap.com/fantastic-four-box-office-second-weekend/?ref=spyglass.org) After [a solid opening weekend for *The Fantastic Four*](https://spyglass.org/marvels-fantastic-four-mcu/)– certainly for that long-troubled franchise in movie form under Fox – Marvel looked to be putting some lackluster performances of the recent post-*Avengers* MCU films behind them and were ready to fly high again, leading up to the return of the *Avengers* in a couple years. Not so fast. > After a $11.7 million second Friday, industry estimates have “Fantastic Four” earning a $40.8 million second weekend, which equates to a 66% drop from its $117.6 million domestic opening. Theatrical sources and rival studios had predicted a second weekend of at least $45 million, which would have keep its drop to 60% or less. A 66% drop isn't just bad, it's terrible. Yes, even for a summertime superhero movie – as they note, *Superman* fell "just" 53% in its second weekend after a very similar-sized opening. There's no spinning it, it's just horrible news for Disney/Marvel as it shifts projections down to perhaps just $250M at the domestic box office and maybe $500M worldwide. For a movie that likely cost $300M to make and market, that means a decidedly unprofitable theatrical run (since cinemas and distribution partners take upwards of 50% of that box office). But it's potentially even a bigger problem for Marvel because it *seemed like* Kevin Feige had finally righted the ship after a series of experiments to see what might work with the MCU after the franchises clearly peaked, at least when it came to the box office, with that final *Avengers* film, *Endgame*, released over six years ago. First, after the pandemic-era [flooding of content](https://spyglass.org/the-acolyte-disney-plus-awful/) (aided by the launch of Disney+), they tried to pull back a bit on volume so that there weren't 10 different MCU stories going on at once across film and television. Then, after a bunch of decidedly mediocre fare, they tried to make the movies actually good again. Sadly, that didn't really help *Thunderbolts*, which was good, but still underperformed – which I would chalk up to bad/confusing marketing as much as anything else. But again, now it *seemed like* Marvel may have found their footing, with a movie that was received well by audience and critics and was seemingly marketed well in the form of *The Fantastic Four*. A $120M opening when when compared to previous movies in that particular franchise did indeed seem fantastic. And now... So what's going on here? The fact that Marvel isn't alone, with Disney's Pixar division [running into some of the same box office issues](https://spyglass.org/pixar-box-office-fail/), as well as [other well-received franchise-fare](https://spyglass.org/fury-over-furiosa/), might suggest a broader and bigger problem. What if – wait for it – [people just don't turn out for movies like they once did](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) in theaters anymore? Shocking, I know, if you just read the trade presses [fawning over the box office records](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) – records which almost never mention the fact that when you add one very simple math layer to these equations – inflation – the box office actually remains far, far, far below any peak. And in terms of ticket sales themselves – numbers of butts in seats – *those likely peaked around 70 years ago or so*. So yeah, that's a problem. And as much as it pains Hollywood to hear it, there's no point is pretending it's not real: they're never going back to those peaks. Because that size audience is never coming back. [You need to adapt to the new reality](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). That reality is a theatrical run for movies [where it makes sense](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). And even within that subset, different strategies will make sense for different reasons. There are movies that go viral outside of the content on screen, like last year's *Anyone But You* – and, in a way, the new *Naked Gun* movie seems to be [tapping into that energy](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/business/media/the-naked-gun-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org) thanks to the off-screen real-life romance between stars Liam Neeson and Pamela Anderson. There are movies that go viral because they're actually good and timed well, like *Sinners*. There are the "traditional" big Hollywood spectacles like *Top Gun Maverick* – and yes, [I would put Apple's *F1* in that camp](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/). Movies that sort of demand to be seen on the biggest screens possible – i.e. [IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/). The superhero movies used to be firmly in that latter camp, but they now run the risk of falling out of it for various reasons as mentioned above. The next *Avengers* will undoubtedly break the box office as the star-studded spectacle is about to be amped up ever further and [there's now a nostalgic component](https://spyglass.org/doctor-doom-marvel-downey-jr/) to those films – though I can't help but wonder if this *Fantastic Four* situation doesn't point to a world in which the *Avengers* doesn't do [quite as well](https://spyglass.org/x-men-mcu/) as everyone is expecting now – and the [rumored $500M budgets will command](https://spyglass.org/robert-downey-jr-payday-doctor-doom/). There's potentially a world in which these superhero movies now open to big business but fall off faster than ever before – as was the case here. Part of the reason why should be obvious: the super fans of such content front-load the box office. That is, anyone who really, really, really wants to see *The Fantastic Four* will go on opening weekend. Anyone who is just sort of interested will probably wait for it to be on streaming in a couple months. Said another way: if they missed that opening weekend window, you may have lost them until streaming. That points to a world where either they elongate the theatrical windows once again – which theater owners would love, of course – or they go the opposite way and keep such superhero movies only in theaters for a few weeks to get the money from the super fans and then aim to leverage the marketing spend to send these movies soaring onto their streaming platforms. That latter point is the playbook [I've argued that Netflix should be running for their biggest movies](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) – and I believe that they will, eventually. But for the traditional studios, this is all much harder to swallow, of course. And that short theatrical run would be impossible for the theaters themselves to swallow – see also: [their recent reaction to IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/) – even though they now run the risk of movies that open to brisk business and then leave theaters sitting half-full, or worse, after that first weekend. That has long been the reality of the business, but it's more pronounced than ever – and getting worse, clearly. So everyone can just sit around and die a slow death or try to [think outside those traditional boxes](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org). That includes Disney/Marvel with their all-important MCU. At this rate, *Fantastic Four* is probably done in movie theaters in a couple weeks regardless. Do you want to control that narrative or have it control you? **One more thing:** I believe all of the above is correct but the more simple statement must be stated too: perhaps [videogame IP is just the new comic book IP](https://spyglass.org/a-minecraft-movie-box-office/). [Such shifts tend to happen](https://spyglass.org/videogames-hollywood/)... [Taking a Bite Out of the Latest Box Office “Records”With ‘Jurassic Park 7’ and ‘F1’, the goalposts keep shifting as the reporting around recent box office numbers remains ridiculous…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-103.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2583_TP_00061-H-2025-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-104.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-9.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) [Of Tadpoles and TentpolesA 10 step plan to save the movie theater business![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-105.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Inside-Out-2-Online-Use-4-8.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) ### Meta's 'Anti-Godfather' Offers URL: https://spyglass.org/metas-anti-godfather-offers/ Last updated: 2025-09-09T14:27:24.000Z [A month ago](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/), as reports started to surface about not just ["$100M signing bonuses"](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) but also [*$300M+ total compensation offers*](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-meta-offer-top-ai-talent-300-million/?ref=spyglass.org) made by Mark Zuckerberg to top AI talent to join his new 'Superintelligence Lab' at Meta, one thing immediately jumped to mind: [the famous scene in *The Godfather*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6me2-OurCw&ref=spyglass.org) where Vito Corleone tells Johnny Fontane: "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse." The implication here, of course, is that the Don is going to make an offer so compelling – be it monetary or more likely, something far more nefarious – that the person on the other end simply cannot turn it down. Well, the problem with the comparison was that people *did keep turning down Zuck's offer*. [Not all of them](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/), mind you (though seemingly almost all of them who got *the actual 'Godfather' $100M+ offers* – [aside from one](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168012612/meta-poaching-apples-top-llm-guy?ref=spyglass.org) or two, [perhaps](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/)), but more than seemed to be accepting them. Which was wild. And now it's even more wild. To the point where I must admit that my original attempt to brand such offers was way off the mark. These aren't 'Godfather' offers at all, they're almost the opposite. Because people keep refusing them – *even as they've now apparently crossed the $1B threshold*. That sounds insane, but as first reported [by Kylie Robison for *Wired*](https://link.wired.com/view/5ee15249cb988a675a4f99d3ockkf.yz/29ff9713?ref=spyglass.org) earlier this week, in the midst of trying to poach talent from Thinking Machine Lab (after CEO Mira Murati apparently turned down an acquisition offer), Zuck threw out a $1B+ offer to at least one person. [I was wondering who it might have been](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169658049/meta-fails-to-invade-thinking-machine-lab?ref=spyglass.org), and sure enough, despite Meta PR's weak attempt at a non-denial about the whole ordeal, yesterday [Berber Jin and Keach Hagey of *WSJ* backed up the reporting](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-zuckerberg-ai-recruiting-fail-e6107555?ref=spyglass.org). And they apparently got the name of Zuck's would-be billion-dollar-employee: > As Mark Zuckerberg sought to play catch-up in the generative AI race, he reached out a few months ago to OpenAI’s former chief technology officer, Mira Murati, and offered to buy her fledgling startup, Thinking Machines Lab. > > When she said no, the Meta chief executive responded by launching a full-scale raid. In the following weeks he approached more than a dozen of Murati’s roughly 50 employees to sound them out about jumping ship. His chief target: Andrew Tulloch, a leading researcher and co-founder at the startup. > > To peel him off, Zuckerberg dangled a billion-dollar package that could, with top bonuses and extraordinary stock performance, have been worth as much as $1.5 billion over at least six years, according to people familiar with the matter. > > Tulloch said no. None of his colleagues left either. There will probably be nothing more damning ever written about Meta than the fact that there are so many people *Zuck literally* *can't pay to join them*. And not just regular amounts of money – obscene amounts of money. [A billion dollars](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhaKjlrRJOI&ref=spyglass.org). Or more! Their PR team can call such reporting “inaccurate and ridiculous” all they want – [and in my own personal experience in the past](https://techcrunch.com/2011/06/17/we-will-fight-in-the-shade/?ref=spyglass.org), that PR team in particular has [a slippery grasp of the truth](https://techcrunch.com/2013/01/12/facebook-phone-yes-again/?ref=spyglass.org) – there's way too much smoke around these offers for there to be no fire. Clearly, Meta wants to [argue semantics](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) in to obfuscate their tactics here – i.e. that they're tied to milestones and time and whatnot; *of course they are*, that doesn't make them any less incredible. And I especially appreciate Meta trying to push back against such reporting while at the same time [Zuck himself is out there making the case for why such offers aren't crazy](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/). And [he's not wrong](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/)! But again, to me, the size of the offers are [now even more incredible](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) *because people keep turning them down*. And I think this report provides a nice, succinct outline as to why. It's some combination of believing in the mission and chance of the AI company you're currently at mixed with not wanting to go work at Meta. > Meta has reached out to more than 100 of OpenAI’s employees. It has hired at least 10\. On July 25, Zuckerberg picked Shengjia Zhao, a Chinese researcher who spent three years at OpenAI, to lead Meta’s new superintelligence team. > > The OpenAI researchers who have so far rebuffed Meta’s advances chose to remain because they believed OpenAI was the closest to reaching artificial general intelligence, wanted to work at a smaller company and were wary of having the fruits of their labors go toward a product that was primarily driven by advertising, according to people familiar with the matter. But what's especially wild about Tulloch is that before Thinking Machines Lab and OpenAI, *he worked at Meta*. Almost a decade ago, Greg Brockman tried to pull him out of then-Facebook and nearly got him before he opted to stay. The reason then to hear Brockman tell it? Money. So not going back to Meta now with a Zuckerberg $1B+ offer seems extra damning. And points to [a real potential problem](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). [Meta’s ‘Godfather’ OfferWhich, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused – so far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-98.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-19.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) [$100M AI Signing BonusesExaggeration, conflation, a game of Telephone, directional accuracy, brinksmanship, or all of the above?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-99.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_cash_falling_from_the_sky_moody_--ar_43_--v_7_d6ebc446-3fe2-4793-b80b-893cc4ee9e52_2-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) [The Have Lots & the Have NotsA time of $100M+ job offers and also layoffs at the same companies…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-97.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_money_being_shot_out_of_a_firehose_cartoon_--ar_43_--v__9ed37ac4-4049-4b7c-a2ab-e41df0088f89_1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/) [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-101.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-100.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) ### Apple Backed Into an AI Corner URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-backed-into-an-ai-corner/ Last updated: 2025-09-09T14:27:08.000Z [Apple CEO Tells Staff AI Is ‘Ours to Grab’ in Hourlong Pep TalkApple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, holding a rare all-hands meeting following earnings results, rallied employees around the company’s artificial intelligence prospects and an “amazing” pipeline of products.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-22.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-16.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/apple-ceo-tells-staff-ai-is-ours-to-grab-in-hourlong-pep-talk?ref=spyglass.org) It's not that Apple has never been backed into a corner before – ["Pray" and all that](https://www.businessinsider.com/19-years-ago-apple-was-at-its-lowest-point-ever-heres-what-people-thought-2016-6?ref=spyglass.org) – it's that they've spent the vast majority of the past 15 years *as the most profitable and valuable company in the world*. So this is, in a way, a new position for the company to in. With that in mind, Tim Cook took the stage at the Steve Jobs Theater for a very special episode of all-hands: > The executive gathered staff at Apple’s on-campus auditorium Friday in Cupertino, California, telling them that the AI revolution is “as big or bigger” as the internet, smartphones, cloud computing and apps. “Apple must do this. Apple will do this. This is sort of ours to grab,” Cook told employees, according to people aware of the meeting. “We will make the investment to do it.” I'm reminded a bit of [King Théoden of Rohan](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDBPmEAheCY&ref=spyglass.org). Apple has had *years* to answer this call and... [well... ](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) they have kept [flubbing it](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) internally, in part due to [drastic under-investing](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/), clearly [unsure up until now](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) if “Apple must do this.” If “Apple will do this.” > But Cook struck an optimistic tone, noting that Apple is typically late to promising new technologies. > > “We’ve rarely been first,” the executive told staffers. “There was a PC before the Mac; there was a smartphone before the iPhone; there were many tablets before the iPad; there was an MP3 player before iPod.” > > But Apple invented the “modern” versions of those product categories, he said. “This is how I feel about AI.” [Cook loves to trot this out when needed](https://spyglass.org/is-apple-intelligence-ready/). Not to be a dick, but these were all projects that Steve Jobs rallied the troops around. Can Tim Cook do this? He's been a great – arguably, *the best* given the results – leader when it comes to *extending* the lead going down the path laid out by Jobs. Can he actually lead in a time of war? To come from behind? I think it's a totally legitimate question. > Echoing comments he made during the [earnings conference call](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/T0AAJR856N7L?ref=spyglass.org), Cook told employees the company is investing in AI in a “big way.” He said 12,000 workers were hired in the last year, with 40% of the new hires joining in research and development roles. This is good news, provided they're getting the best talent for the task. And, well, [they're not paying the best](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/), so these people really have to believe in the mission. [Lest they get poached](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169658049/meta-does-not-fail-to-invade-apple-intelligence?ref=spyglass.org). And the mission, at least what we've heard to date, isn't really as inspiring as the one laid out by, say, Anthropic or OpenAI when it comes to AI. > Federighi explained that the problem was caused by trying to roll out a version of Siri that merged two different systems: one for handling current commands — like setting timers — and another based on large language models, the software behind generative AI. “We initially wanted to do a hybrid architecture, but we realized that approach wasn’t going to get us to Apple quality,” Federighi said. > > Now, Apple is working on a version of Siri that moves to an entirely new architecture for all of its capabilities. That iteration is slated for as early as spring, Bloomberg News has [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/apple-targets-spring-2026-for-release-of-delayed-siri-ai-upgrade?ref=spyglass.org), though Apple executives haven’t confirmed a timeline other than a release next year. > > “The work we’ve done on this end-to-end revamp of Siri has given us the results we needed,” the engineering executive told employees. “This has put us in a position to not just deliver what we announced, but to deliver a much bigger upgrade than we envisioned. There is no project people are taking more seriously.” Yeah but the problem here is that [Apple should have known](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) this would be an issue – Amazon had just run into the *exact same one*. And to a lesser extent, [Google too](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/). [Any idiot could have predicted what would happen here](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/). Especially since it seemingly [kept happening](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/). Apple employees, of course, are not idiots. This makes me worry[ about leadership](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/). They [shook it up](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) because they had to, but [does it go deep enough](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/) to instill the mentality shifts needed? This is what [all the M&A chatter](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) is actually about: not necessarily tech, but talent. A way to signal a cultural shift internally and externally. And a way to actually gear up the culture to meet this moment. > In his speech, Cook also pushed employees to move more quickly to weave AI into their work and future products. > > “All of us are using AI in a significant way already, and we must use it as a company as well,” Cook said. “To not do so would be to be left behind, and we can’t do that.” > > Employees should push to deploy AI tools faster, and urge their managers and service and support teams to do the same, he said. Cook is not the first major tech CEO to say this – in fact, he might be the *last*, which is the problem. Yes, it's true that Apple famously likes to enter markets later than others and they have a great track record of succeeding when they do that. But many people – myself included – feel like AI might be a different beast. If anything, *it might still be too early* for anyone – including Apple – to fully productize the technology because it's still shifting so fast underneath everyones' feet. At the same time, they can't afford to sit back and wait. They tried that, then tried to jump in, and they failed. If they just wait longer, my bet would be that *they fail even harder*. It feels like a matter of not having the right experience and talent to compete if you're not in the trenches here. And that's not a position in which Apple is historically comfortable. At the same time, if they fully retreat back to keep waiting, Wall Street is going to keep killing them. Cook will say he doesn't care about that. But he does. He must. It's part of the job. A big part when you run a company with a stock as important to the American economic ecosystem as Apple has become. > “The product pipeline, which I can’t talk about: It’s amazing, guys. It’s amazing,” Cook said. “Some of it you’ll see soon, some of it will come later, but there’s a lot to see.” I hope so. It's the one thing that can keep Apple in this race. No one else has yet proven themselves capable of matching Apple's product prowess. [Meta is trying like hell](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). [Everyone is](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/). OpenAI is [spending billions](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) to [bring on Apple's best purveyors of that product prowess](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). But Apple is still Apple, at least in this regard. [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-92.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1-9)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) [Siri Doomed Apple in AI, Just Like Alexa Did with AmazonTheir previous “success” in assistants became albatrosses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-93.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_albatross_around_the_neck_of_a_robot_--ar_21_--v_7_17d33bc8-4e5a-4bb7-9bb2-8a1530dc4a28_1-1-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-94.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) ### A Personal Read of 'Personal Superintelligence' URL: https://spyglass.org/personal-superintelligence/ Last updated: 2025-09-09T14:26:54.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_llama_with_packs_of_money_--ar_43_--v_7_1606eb42-c07e-4685-94f0-b468e32b9895_2-1.png) Meta seemingly has a big earnings call today. While Wall Street has gone back and forth on [their AI spend](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/), this is the first earnings after Mark Zuckerberg kicked off [his new 'Superintelligence' efforts](https://spyglass.org/meta-superintelligence-lab/) – an implicit admission that the Llama efforts, at least this far, have largely failed. That's a tough message to try to deliver after you've been selling Wall Street on your spend for the past many quarters. The best way to handle it may be to get ahead of it and try to [change the conversation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su56rdSvQBU&ref=spyglass.org). At the same time, while you're throwing tens of millions, and sometimes hundreds of millions – *and perhaps even billions* – at people to try to join your new Superintelligence Labs, a number of folks are turning you down. You're [making them an offer they cannot refuse ](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/)and... [they're refusing it](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169658049/meta-fails-to-invade-thinking-machine-lab?ref=spyglass.org). Why? In part, perhaps, because your messaging around AI is muddled at best. Further, many simply aren't inspired about the prospects of going to work for what is still very much an advertising-driven company trying to build the future of AI. So what do you do if you're Zuck? Try to change the conversation. Also, what if there was a way [to bury your open source ethos](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) literally while doing so figuratively... To change [that conversation](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). Enter ["Personal Superintelligence"](https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/?ref=spyglass.org). An essay – mission statement? – posted to Meta's website in a style that's hilariously spartan. It may as well read, "[how do you do](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/how-do-you-do-fellow-kids?ref=spyglass.org), fellow AI enthusiasts?" But it doesn't read like that. It reads... well, let's break it down, shall we? > Over the last few months we have begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves. The improvement is slow for now, but undeniable. Developing superintelligence is now in sight. > > It seems clear that in the coming years, AI will improve all our existing systems and enable the creation and discovery of new things that aren't imaginable today. But it is an open question what we will direct superintelligence towards. This is basically the opening of a Sam Altman [essay](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/) – of *nearly every* Sam Altman [essay](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/). It's grandiose yet vague. It intrigues. What ever could he mean? The future is in sight! Reach out and grab it! > In some ways this will be a new era for humanity, but in others it's just a continuation of historical trends. As recently as 200 years ago, 90% of people were farmers growing food to survive. Advances in technology have steadily freed much of humanity to focus less on subsistence and more on the pursuits we choose. At each step, people have used our newfound productivity to achieve more than was previously possible, pushing the frontiers of science and health, as well as spending more time on creativity, culture, relationships, and enjoying life. > > I am extremely optimistic that superintelligence will help humanity accelerate our pace of progress. But perhaps even more important is that superintelligence has the potential to begin a new era of personal empowerment where people will have greater agency to improve the world in the directions they choose. If the intro was sort of like a Sam Altman essay, this part *is* a Sam Altman essay. Talking about "humanity", a historical reference to try to put our current technology breakthroughs in context, trying to wrap it all in a nice, hopeful blanket, etc. It's all there. Did a Sam Altman bot write this?! > As profound as the abundance produced by AI may one day be, an even more meaningful impact on our lives will likely come from everyone having a personal superintelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want to see in the world, experience any adventure, be a better friend to those you care about, and grow to become the person you aspire to be. Ah here we go. You establish the 'superintelligence' term to provide a base from which to [launch your own talking point and brand](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). 'Superintelligence' isn't cool. You know what's cool? 'Personal Superintelligence'. > Meta's vision is to bring personal superintelligence to everyone. We believe in putting this power in people's hands to direct it towards what they value in their own lives. > > This is distinct from others in the industry who believe superintelligence should be directed centrally towards automating all valuable work, and then humanity will live on a dole of its output. At Meta, we believe that people pursuing their individual aspirations is how we have always made progress expanding prosperity, science, health, and culture. This will be increasingly important in the future as well. This is how we're different from those other players in AI who want to own it all and automate away your personality, your work, your hope, your life. We will squeeze the shit out of this mission statement to fit into what Meta – né Facebook – has done historically to get us to this point. > The intersection of technology and how people live is Meta's focus, and this will only become more important in the future. Ah, the "intersection of technology and..." – we've moved on from Sam Altman [to Steve Jobs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlI1MR-qNt8&ref=spyglass.org), I see. > If trends continue, then you'd expect people to spend less time in productivity software, and more time creating and connecting. Personal superintelligence that knows us deeply, understands our goals, and can help us achieve them will be by far the most useful. Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices. Let's take the high level notion that AI will free up time for everyone to do what they desire and subtly point out how this benefits Meta. Forget work – [get in losers](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/get-in-loser-were-going-shopping?ref=spyglass.org), we're going creating and connecting. (Aside: [I'm skeptical](https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/) that gains in productivity driven by AI will play out this way – I wouldn't be shocked if we use any time saved to do *more work*. Except in Europe, they'll likely do less work. But it's also unclear when they'll have access to such technology.) The real key of this paragraph is to point to the fact that Meta has the current lead in AI devices – insofar as Ray-Ban Meta is actually an AI device. It's sort of a pair of camera/music glasses [with AI tacked on](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-glasses/). Still, [Meta has the lead in this space](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/) and what they've shown off [with "Orion"](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) ([now perhaps](https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/) [called "Artemis"](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-wwdc-trapped-in-frozen-liquid?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7snaps-ar-specs-set-for-next-year)) – true AR glasses – should be a part of our AI future. Will they replace smartphones. Certainly not anytime soon, but Zuck smoothly doesn't give a timetable for his assertion! One day, someday, we'll move on [to what's next](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/). After channeling Steve Jobs, to take this indirect shot at Apple is a bit harsh. But it's also [Zuck's favorite pastime](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20Mark%20Zuckerberg,first.%20%5B9to5Mac%5D) at this point. > We believe the benefits of superintelligence should be shared with the world as broadly as possible. That said, superintelligence will raise novel safety concerns. We'll need to be rigorous about mitigating these risks and careful about what we choose to open source. Still, we believe that building a free society requires that we aim to empower people as much as possible. [Bye bye open source](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/). Yeah, yeah, Meta will [continue to say](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) that nothing has changed, that they'll always open source some of their work. Come on. This is [a *huge* mentality shift](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/), clearly. And while it was seemingly still be debated, we can now put the debate to rest. Llama may or may not be dead, but Meta open sourcing their cutting edge work is. Why? Safety of course. Weird that it didn't matter when most of the rest of the industry was up in arms about this when the Llama strategy started. Now it does. 'Superintelligence' I guess. > The rest of this decade seems likely to be the decisive period for determining the path this technology will take, and whether superintelligence will be a tool for personal empowerment or a force focused on replacing large swaths of society. **Translation**: the other guys, they are coming for you. [Hide yo kids](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMtZfW2z9dw&ref=spyglass.org), hide yo personal AI... > Meta believes strongly in building personal superintelligence that empowers everyone. We have the resources and the expertise to build the massive infrastructure required, and the capability and will to deliver new technology to billions of people across our products. I'm excited to focus Meta's efforts towards building this future. **Translation:** we are not a startup that constantly burns and needs to raise money (well, [aside from debt](https://www.ft.com/content/05727499-8bf6-4c56-8904-cc6292eb2469?ref=spyglass.org) – [a lot of debt](https://www.ft.com/content/aff1a2d2-d58e-44de-a114-9f0ce9d15a15?ref=spyglass.org) – but never you mind). And we have history with infrastructure. And the track record in scaling to billions of users. Who else can say that? No – I'm talking about Meta, not Google! Yes, yes, they're in a similar position of strength – fine, [maybe even a better one](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). But did I mention '***Personal*** Superintelligence'. Nothing personal about that company. Are you in? > – Mark **Translation:** this was totally not written by a Sam Altman/Steve Jobs/Mark Zuckerberg bot, I swear. Hello? Are you still there? Hello? Hello? How does a billion dollars sound? 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [The Endless Rebranding of AIFrom AI to AGI to Superintelligence to... brands trying to make Granular Superintelligence happen![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-79.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_visual_representation_of_superintelligence_--v_7_d8edb2ca-06b5-49bc-8f5a-a59e673a0ed0_0-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/) [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-80.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-82.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) [Meta’s AI Relativity TheoryMark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-85.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-83.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) ### Meta's 'MoE' Mistake URL: https://spyglass.org/metas-moe-ai-mistake/ Last updated: 2025-09-06T08:52:28.000Z [Meta’s AI spending spree is Wall Street’s focus in second-quarter earningsMeta investors will be scrutinizing CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s AI hiring blitz during the company’s second-quarter earnings on Wednesday.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-31.ico)CNBCJonathan Vanian![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/108043098-1727989387640-gettyimages-2173579499-META_CONNECT-1.jpeg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/29/meta-ai-q2-earnings.html?ref=spyglass.org) A month ago, I wrote a post entitled ["Meta's Open Source AI Mistake"](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) outlining how the company found itself in the position of [needing to pay](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) ([or at least offer](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/)) individuals [hundreds of millions of dollars](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) to come help to [reboot their AI efforts](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). At a high level, their strategy for Llama not only wasn't working in terms of getting Meta to the cutting edge of AI, but the "open source" (read: open weight) ideals they were trying to adhere to actually may have *backfired*. This new reporting on the matter goes more granular on those issues: > Llama 4′s struggles can be traced back to January, when the sudden rise and ensuing popularity of the open-source R1 AI model by [DeepSeek](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/china-deepseek-origin-story.html?ref=spyglass.org) caught Meta off guard, leading to a reevaluation of Llama’s underlying architecture, the people said. > > DeepSeek’s R1 is a so-called mixture-of-experts AI model, or MoE. R1 is similar to OpenAI’s [o1 family of models](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/openai-releases-most-advanced-ai-model-yet-o3-o4-mini-reasoning-images.html?ref=spyglass.org) that can be trained to excel at multistep tasks like solving math equations or writing code. > > By contrast, Llama’s models — before their latest release - were dense AI models, which are generally simpler for most AI developers to fine-tune and incorporate into their own apps, the people said. To add insult to this injury, DeepSeek R1 was largely distilled from Llama! Because it was open source! Essentially, DeepSeek used Meta's foundation to [showcase a better way](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) to build a better model (MoE), [perhaps augmenting it](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/29/openai-chatgpt-deepseek-china-us-ai-models?ref=spyglass.org) with (decidedly not open source) work from OpenAI and others. This was an "oh shit" moment for Meta internally, and so they seemingly scrambled to build Llama 4 in such a manner: > Suddenly, Meta executives thought they had a clearer picture into how to create their own efficient and possibly cheaper MoE models, potentially leapfrogging rivals like OpenAI, people familiar with the matter said. > > Still, some staff members in Meta’s GenAI unit pushed for Llama 4 to remain a dense AI model, which though generally less efficient, is still powerful, and Meta originally planned on that architecture acting as the backbone supporting improved voice recognition capabilities, the people said. > > Ultimately, Meta went with the MoE approach, due in part to DeepSeek’s innovations and the promise of pulling ahead of OpenAI, the people said. Meta [released](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/05/meta-debuts-new-llama-4-models-but-most-powerful-ai-model-is-still-to-come.html?ref=spyglass.org) two small versions in April and said a “Behemoth” version would come at a later date. > > But the new MoE architecture disappointed some developers, who were simply hoping Llama 4 would be a souped-up version of Llama 3, people familiar with the matter said. Llama 4 also failed to deliver a significant leap over competing open-source models from China, the people said. To put it in terms that longtime Apple watchers may appreciate: the people wanted [a better Apple II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%5FII?ref=spyglass.org#Apple%5FIIe), not [the Lisa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple%5FLisa?ref=spyglass.org). Add to this that the "dense" version of Llama was proving to be extremely expensive for Meta to maintain, especially when others were just going to mooch off the work, rather than contribute back to make Meta itself stronger. Zuckerberg passed the hat around to try to get some help on that financial burden, but got no takers because – [why buy the Llama when you get the model for free](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/)? > Executives at Meta as well as the Superintelligence Labs’ high-profile hires are now questioning the company’s current open-source AI strategy, and have considered skipping the release of Behemoth in favor of developing a more powerful proprietary AI model, the people said. While "spokespeople" continue to downplay this notion, it seems pretty clear that [Meta will go down this path](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) with [the new group](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/). I'm guessing that they'll open source *some* of the models eventually – just as OpenAI itself is now [gearing up to do](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/big-ai-and-big-streaming?ref=spyglass.org) – but the main work is likely to be behind closed doors, just as it is at OpenAI, Anthropic, and elsewhere. The real question for Meta: can [their newly formed](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) [band of pirates](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) ship the Mac? [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-58.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-59.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-57.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) ### IMAX is More than Just a Bigger Screen, You Morons URL: https://spyglass.org/imax-competitor-by-committee/ Last updated: 2025-09-06T08:51:30.000Z [Cinemas Weigh Launching New Large Screen Brand to Challenge ImaxA number of chains are alarmed by the growing influence of Imax with Hollywood studios and filmmakers![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-21.png)BloombergThomas Buckley![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-15.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/cinemas-weigh-launching-new-large-screen-brand-to-challenge-imax?ref=spyglass.org) There haven't been too many bright spots in recent years for the movie theater business, but one of them is [clearly IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/). So you know what that means? Time to snuff it out: > Some of the largest US theater chains, including Cinemark, Regal and Marcus, have held preliminary talks about jointly marketing their big-screen theaters to blunt the growing influence of Imax Corp. within the movie industry and the public, according to people familiar with the matter. > > The talks so far have focused on setting shared standards for the chains’ “premium large-format” theaters to better compete with Imax’s giant screens, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. The chains have a number of options, the people said. One is to unite around a new brand name for their premium format. Another would be to keep their premium brands and add an industrywide designation that would act as a stamp of approval for their locations. It’s also possible they do nothing and maintain their current ties with Imax. Do you ever get the sense that these theater chains think that IMAX is simply a larger screen? Granted, it's a literal big part and the most forward-facing aspect, but there's quite a bit more that goes into IMAX – from the making of the movies to the editing of them to the selecting of them to the marketing of them. With that in mind, just "throwing up a big ass screen" isn't likely a good strategy to compete. > Some chains are alarmed by the growing presence of Imax in Hollywood advertising — including posters in their own lobbies that feature the brand as prominently as movie titles. Imax licenses its technology to theaters and has about 372 US locations — a fraction of the screens nationwide. Yet it consistently generates more than 10% of the box office for blockbusters. Are you kidding me? They should be *thanking* IMAX for this. This is [a business](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) in secular decline, [don't let the constant touting of box office "records" fool you](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/). Look at the number of butts in seats. This is not a growth business. But IMAX smartly took the approach of going higher end (with higher prices). Offering up something consumers simply cannot match at home. The theater chains have largely chosen to go lower end (with higher prices). Keeping people home. [This isn't rocket science](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) – unless you run a giant movie theater chain, apparently. > Displacing Imax would be a tall order: The company has spent half a century refining its technology and building its brand. It has attracted marquee filmmakers — including Oppenheimer director Christopher Nolan, Dune director Denis Villeneuve and Sinners director Ryan Coogler — to shoot their films using Imax cameras. Are they suggesting Christopher Nolan's next movie isn't going to be shot for the 4DXX format with Smell-o-vision? I bet they could convince Denis Villeneuve to do a fourth *Dune*. I mean '*Dune 4DXX* ' is so close I can smell it. > There could be financial benefits for theaters, including less money going to Imax for licensing its technology, the people said. The chains have also discussed among themselves the possibility of asking studios to help market any new brand they might adopt.Representatives of Cinemark Holdings Inc., Marcus Corp., Regal Cineworld and Imax all declined to comment. AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., the largest chain and biggest operator of Imax screens in the US, isn’t participating in the deliberations, according to the people. How bad are things? AMC – [AMC!](https://500ish.com/amcs-kabuki-theater-1844db319506?ref=spyglass.org) – is the voice of reason here. The chain last seen [trying to shove more ads on screens](https://spyglass.org/movie-theater-ads/) before a movie starts to try to blunt any notion of a comeback for the box office. Surely there's [a memecoin to be minted](https://spyglass.org/gamestop-amc-djt-grift/) here somewhere... Meanwhile, while I made up the branding for the theaters would-be IMAX killer tech, I must admit, what they're actually using right now is far worse: > Cinemark’s company-branded big screens are called XD, while Regal’s are dubbed RPX and Marcus’ MT-X. They are typically 70 feet wide, or more, and taller than those found at traditional theaters. Some come with premium sound systems and seats that move. They resonate with fans, who will often pay 30% more for seats. 'XD' sounds like a PC you'd buy from Dell in the 90s. The cheap-o version. 'RPX' sounds like a shitty motocross competitor. 'MT-X' sounds like a vehicle the Empire uses in *Star Wars*. "They resonate with fans, who will often pay 30% more for seats," is just an incredible rationalization. > Despite those troubles, Imax is set to score its best year for box-office revenue in 2025 on the back of movie marketing campaigns that carry taglines like “Filmed For Imax.” > > Cinema owners who don’t have Imax screens have bristled at receiving film posters from major Hollywood studios with taglines such as “See it in Imax,” the people said. These are marketed that way because it actually *resonates* with consumers. This gets butts in seats. If you don't have such seats, that's definitely a problem, but not one you solve by pretending IMAX doesn't exist. > Another source of tension is the deal that Imax struck to release Netflix Inc.’s film based on C.S. Lewis’ The Chronicles of Narnia in late 2026, the people said. The Greta Gerwig-directed film will run for two weeks exclusively on Imax screens before being released on the streaming service. > > Some theater owners are in revolt because Netflix has largely shunned theatrical releases. Its co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos has criticized theaters as an inefficient distribution model. Speaking at an industry event earlier this year, Regal CEO Eduardo Acuna wouldn’t commit to playing the Narnia movie in his theaters even though his circuit operates Imax screens, arguing that two weeks is too short a period to draw a significant number of moviegoers. Yeah boo-hoo. Why is Netflix going with IMAX? [Well, because Greta Gerwig made them](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/). But [why](https://spyglass.org/netflix-frankenstein-theaters/) are they [*okay*](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) with going with IMAX here? Because it's something you still literally [can't compete with](https://spyglass.org/netflix-theatrical-windows/) at home. For basically every other screen, that's simply not true. *And it's not just because the screens are larger*. It's because of [the IMAX cameras](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/christopher-nolan-the-odyssey-imax-cameras-1236400161/?ref=spyglass.org) and post-production process and vetting process. Are Cinemark and Regal going to replicate all of that too? Of course not, because such things cost money. Money they wouldn't spend even if they had it. So here's a far easier idea: [**improve your actual theaters**](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/). Make them [the movie palaces of old](https://500ish.com/once-upon-a-time-in-a-cinema-c5991e1b7fe3?ref=spyglass.org), not [dirty dark rooms](https://500ish.com/spoiler-movie-theaters-are-dying-because-they-mostly-suck-a1662eace411?ref=spyglass.org) with screens often smaller than what people have at home now. My god, what morons. [Of Tadpoles and TentpolesA 10 step plan to save the movie theater business![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-52.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Inside-Out-2-Online-Use-4-7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) [Movie Theater Attendance Is An Issue So Let’s Show More AdsGreat moments in long-term strategic thinking…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-53.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1135340-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theater-ads/) [The Incredible Shrinking Movie TheaterHollywood keeps fighting the change needed in movie theaters, but it’s inevitable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-55.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Furiosa-Anya-Tayloy-Joy-1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/) [IMAX’s Big PictureFilm Fans Keep Splurging on Blockbusters in Imax, So Why Hasn’t Wall Street Gotten on Board?How Imax has quickly become the goldstandard in theatrical experiences.VarietyBrent Lang It’s easy to overthink it. With all the concerns about the future of cinemas – as in the actual buildings where you![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-56.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Imax-Illustration-Cinemacon-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/imax/) [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-54.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-8.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) ### Microsoft Puts a Face to Their (Bad) AI Bot Name URL: https://spyglass.org/microsoft-copilot-bot-face/ Last updated: 2025-09-02T14:09:41.000Z First, there was typing. Then [we got voice](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/). Now we have faces. I’m honestly not sure how I feel yet about the new trend towards anthropomorphizing our AI. But it was always inevitable and I suspect we’re going to see a lot more of it, leading up to our eventual interaction with actual, physical robots. Earlier today, I got access to Microsoft’s new Copilot "Appearance" feature. It's a new mode [they're rolling out via their "Labs"](https://www.theverge.com/news/713715/microsoft-copilot-appearance-feature-age-mustafa-suleyman-interview?ref=spyglass.org) (read: beta testing) to give a literal face to their AI voice mode. To be clear, it’s an extremely simple, fairly cartoony face. And it rests on this nebulous white blob of a head that's floating in a sort of peach-hued heaven-looking place. The best way I can describe it is that it's sort of like talking to a friendly cloud. (FWIW, it describes itself as a "glowing malleable form".) Obviously, this look is intentional and presumably meant to be as unthreatening and inviting as possible. But not inviting [like the Grok "Companions"](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168483112/grok-ai-companions?ref=spyglass.org) – well, at least not like the flirty "Ani" variety. Perhaps a bit more like "Rudi" when he's not busy being "Bad Rudi". Copilot's vibe is almost [Tamagotchi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamagotchi?ref=spyglass.org)\-like. It's sort of like a pet, one that reacts not just when you talk, but also when you click on it with your mouse pointer. And it notes that it "shape shifts with my 'emotions'." This is in line with the more emotive AI [Mustafa Suleyman has been talking about](https://spyglass.org/ai-matter-of-trust/) trying to create dating to his days at Inflection, before Microsoft made them [the first "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) to bring Suleyman on board. Something else this personified bot constantly reminds me of? [Miss Minutes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpCIadly88&ref=spyglass.org), the retro-cartoony talking clock from *Loki*. And that, despite the clear attempts to make Copilot as vanilla as possible, makes me think there might be something mischievous hiding behind those black stone eyes and tiny mouth. I'm just waiting for Copilot to drop the "you’re out of time” line on me with [a sinister smile](https://comicbook.com/tv-shows/news/loki-season-2-miss-minutes-dark-turn-marvel/?ref=spyglass.org). [Shades of "Sydney"](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) perhaps? And [what could have been for Bing](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/)... Anyway, so far, Copilot has probably been too nice to me and I find it a bit annoying in the way it gushes over everything I say (the fairly standard ["sycophantic AI" problem](https://spyglass.org/artificial-iconoclasts/) these days). And while [I've never been a fan](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) of the "Copilot" branding [outside of the enterprise](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-copilot-qualcomm/), it's especially strange now that a face has been added to that name. When you ask what you should call it, the reply is simply "Copilot". It feels like something with a face should have an actual name. Then again, I get why they [might be avoiding that](https://500ish.com/from-samantha-to-dolores-9394312dd4f5?ref=spyglass.org) even more so than other companies... There’s also a natural instinct that kicks in *to look at it* when talking to it. And there’s also this weird feeling that it can *see you*, even though it cannot (well, presumably unless you’ve entered a mode where you’re sending pictures/video for the AI to analyze). Maybe it was just me, but I did feel an urge to be nice to the bot. Not that I’m mean to them normally, but the facial reactions made me feel as if I should talk to it more as if it were a human. I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing. Those facial reactions also made me more acutely aware at how slow Copilot was to respond to a bunch of queries. The great face in the sky would always have this puzzled “thinking” look on its mug for several seconds before responding. That could just be a Copilot latency issue overall, but it got a bit tiresome. And it's pretty weird that the reaction to nearly everything I say is a look that conveys immediate confusion – especially when the voice output that follows is often the opposite. Again, often ebullient praise of what I just said. Also odd: I feel like the face made me trust the AI more, an issue that quickly surfaced when Copilot hallucinated the Chelsea football schedule this year. When I asked for Chelsea's next Premier League match, it confidently told me the date of last year's first match. When I pushed back, it said it was sure. Just a full-on lie, it didn't even blink. It was also a bit weird that you can change the voice itself — from the six options that Microsoft offers — but the cute cloud thing stayed the same. Obviously, there will be more options here eventually — including, perhaps, Clippy ([yes, for real](https://www.fastcompany.com/91282404/mustafa-suleyman-microsoft-ai?ref=spyglass.org)). And I suspect this mode will spur others to offer embodiment as an option. As I [wrote back in March](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-clippy-copilot-ai/): > You simply cannot have an article about Microsoft and AI [and not mention Clippy](https://spyglass.org/ai-matter-of-trust/). I'm sorry, it's in the contract. But really, it's perhaps apt here given what McCracken spotted on that screen. Might we be getting some kind of Microsoft consumer Copilot character? While others have tried versions of this, one of the flagship, cutting-edge LLM [vocal computing](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) plays doing this could be interesting. Right now, ChatGPT's voice mode is an amorphous dot ([even when in Santa mode](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/)). Gemini's is some colors at the bottom of the screen. Meta has tried to put celebrities in your field of view, but that was stupid, [and quickly axed](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/). (Only [to be resurrected](https://spyglass.org/judi-dench-ai/).) Alexa and Siri remain just voices from beyond. Might there be a play here? > > At some point, as this technology moves into the real world and [slowly morphs into robots](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/), we undoubtedly will get some form of this anthropomorphized evolution. And yes, Microsoft has been aiming to do some form of this forever. As one of the (seemingly few) users of [Microsoft Bob](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft%5FBob?ref=spyglass.org) back in the day, I appreciate this. And let's not forget – [let's never forget](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/) – Apple's [Knowledge Navigator](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge%5FNavigator?ref=spyglass.org). The [1987 concept video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGYFEI6uLy0&ref=spyglass.org) featured AI in the form of a bow-tied butler agent. Well, we're here. And while Grok may have technically started it with a sex bot (though there were obviously many AI characters before them – including, notably, the company [Google "hackquired"](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/) in [Character.ai](https://character.ai/?ref=spyglass.org)), Microsoft's entry is more straightforward. Given that Amazon is also trying to get Alexa to be [more emotionally evocative](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/), might they follow suit? Certainly OpenAI will have [an actual "Santa" character](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) in time for the holidays this year, right? I think these personifications are fine to have as options, much like voice mode itself, but I wouldn't want this to be the standard way to use AI. [At least not until](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) [the actual robots are here](https://spyglass.org/apples-wall-e-robots/). Hopefully [they'll be](https://spyglass.org/ai-movie-ai/) less subversive than Miss Minutes. I'll close with [her line to Victor Timely](https://marvelcinematicuniverse.fandom.com/wiki/Miss%5FMinutes?ref=spyglass.org): > *When* [*you*](https://marvelcinematicuniverse.fandom.com/wiki/He%5FWho%5FRemains?ref=spyglass.org) *first created me, long before the* [*TVA*](https://marvelcinematicuniverse.fandom.com/wiki/TVA?ref=spyglass.org) *or a* [*Multiversal War*](https://marvelcinematicuniverse.fandom.com/wiki/Multiversal%5FWar?ref=spyglass.org)*, I was just a simple AI. Just something to play chess with. But you knew I could be more for you, so you gave me autonomy to write my own programming. I was allowed to have wants, and follow whims and become who I am. And still, each night we played chess and talked."* It's happening... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/miss-minutes-loki-feat.jpg) 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [Early Provocative AI Chatbots, RevisitedTwo years ago, we were up in arms over Bing’s AI “Sydney”…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-50.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dolores-1920-1-4.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/early-provocative-ai-chatbots-revisited/) [Bing When You’re WinningMicrosoft had a window to win consumer AI — and perhaps the future of search![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-49.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/51VyzojTrcL._UF1000-1000_QL80_-2-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/bing-copilot-ai-search/) [Apple’s Elegantly Expressive Pixar LampForget glasses, Apple’s Next Big Thing™ may be a robot…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-44.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/lam-2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-pixar-lamp-robot/) [A Matter of TrustMicrosoft’s new AI is asking and promising a lot…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-45.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-10-02-at-12.38.18-PM-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-matter-of-trust/) [Microsoft’s Awkward AIThere’s a Copilot for that…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-46.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-10-02-22.54.16---A-charming-and-cute-scene-of-two-robots-acting-bashful.-The-robots-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-humanoid-features--and-they-are-positioned-close-9.webp)](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-awkward-ai/) ### Marvel's 'Fantastic' Path Forward URL: https://spyglass.org/marvels-fantastic-four-mcu/ Last updated: 2025-08-04T11:01:54.000Z [ ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Breaks a Box Office Curse The movie, the fifth effort to adapt the comic characters for the big screen, was expected to collect about $220 million worldwide in its first weekend. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) The New York Times Brooks Barnes ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/07/27/multimedia/27box1-bwlj/27box1-bwlj-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/business/media/the-fantastic-four-first-steps-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org) It felt like the buzz leading up to the new *Fantastic Four* movie was good. While it was a Marvel movie technically set in the MCU, because they opted to make it a retro story, the trailers had a decidedly different feel that was refreshing. And that approach seems to be paying off, quite literally: > “[The Fantastic Four: First Steps](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/movies/the-fantastic-four-first-steps-review.html?searchResultPosition=1&ref=spyglass.org)” was expected to collect about $120 million at theaters in the United States and Canada from Thursday through Sunday, box office analysts estimated. Based on advance ticket sales and surveys that track moviegoer interest, Hollywood had expected “First Steps” to arrive at about $115 million in domestic ticket sales. While that's ever-so-slightly behind where *Superman* opened a few weeks back ([$125M](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/circling-the-whale-carcass?utm%5Fsource=publication-search)), it's light years ahead of where previous attempts at the *Fantastic Four* franchise have opened. 2005's *Fantastic Four* opened to $56.1M, 2007's *Rise of the Silver Surfer* opened to $58.1M, and 2015's *Fantastic Four* reboot opened to $25.6M (yikes). Even when [adjusted for inflation](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org), those numbers are $91.9M, $89.7M, and $34.6M, respectively. So in that context – and [unlike with these recent *Superman* and *Jurassic Park* films](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) – the opening is legitimately impressive. That said: > The movie, which cost at least $300 million to make and market worldwide, was on pace to generate an additional $100 million overseas, for a global opening total of roughly $220 million. [As always, the second weekend drop](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) will tell the story, but as of right now, modeling it out with that budget/marketing cost, this new *Fantastic Four* will only end up slightly profitable, or slightly unprofitable at a likely $550M - $650M worldwide box office tally during its theatrical run. I hate to [always be](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168381892/fs-checkered-flag?ref=spyglass.org) the [box office wet blanket](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164462634/lilo-and-stitch-and-tom-cruise-add-to-a-box-office-boomlet?ref=spyglass.org) here, but [this context matters](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) when [talking about](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) these openings! Still, this is a nice turnaround for Disney/Marvel after *Thunderbolts*, released in May, only managed to take in $382M – "the lowest total in Marvel’s 17-year, 37-film history when adjusted for inflation." I actually just watched *Thunderbolts* last night (at home, paying $25 for the privilege – you're welcome, Disney). And it's actually pretty good – certainly better than the latest *Captain America* which was a total slog (but performed better at the box office). But *Thunderbolts* was also just marketed weirdly, starting with the asterisk in the title, which was a two-times-too-cute reveal that the team was actually the *New Avengers*. (Which I would say is a spoiler, but Marvel itself felt the need to spoil this after basically day one.) Also, that reveal is undercut more than a bit by the news that the *actual* Avengers are [coming back in a couple years](https://spyglass.org/doctor-doom-marvel-downey-jr/). Including, of course, [Robert Downey Jr. in his new role](https://spyglass.org/robert-downey-jr-payday-doctor-doom/)... Further: > Marvel’s sequels have also been [hit](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/07/movies/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-summer-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=The%20movie%20received%20strong%20overall,$156.7%20million%20%28$434.9%20million%29.) and [miss](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/12/business/the-marvels-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org), contributing to fears of “superhero fatigue” in Hollywood. In some ways, Marvel’s runaway success in the 2010s made it arrogant; the studio’s storytelling became tortuously complicated, weaving together plots from numerous TV shows and movies and prompting some casual moviegoers to decide that Marvel cared only about comic nerds. > > Disney, which owns Marvel, pushed hard on a “First Steps” marketing message in the weeks leading up to the film’s release: You do not need a Ph.D. in Marvelology to understand this one. > > “It is a no-homework-required movie,” Kevin Feige, Marvel’s president and chief creative officer, said at a [publicity event](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/marvel-kevin-feige-robert-downey-jr-miles-morales-1236465488/?ref=spyglass.org). “It literally is not connected to anything we’ve made before.” *Thunderbolts* didn't necessarily *require* the homework be done to enjoy it, but all of the characters came from previous MCU films and it was useful to know the backstory of Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh) and Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) – the latter of which would have required watching *six* Marvel movies and one more Disney+ show to boot. It's interesting, what was once the strength of Feige's MCU strategy – setting the stage for all the characters in multiple movies to bring them together into the *Avengers* movies – has now become the weakness of the franchise. There was clearly a point of maximum value of that strategy, and it probably culminated with 2019's *Endgame*. Which should have been the logical conclusion of it all – the cherry on top as one of the highest grossing movies of all time as a result. But they kept going, pushes the "phases" past the extreme. A move which itself was probably driven at least in part by Disney's 2019 acquisition of Fox, which meant that [the X-Men](https://spyglass.org/x-men-mcu/) and yes, Fantastic Four were now in play... (As well as Disney's deal with Sony to keep *Spider-Man* going within the MCU framework – which may or may not be over soon?) And [just as with *Star Wars*](https://spyglass.org/somehow-star-wars-returned/), Disney clearly pushed too much, too soon with the MCU, causing a level of fatigue. But the fact that they're still seeing success with the content that goes a bit off script – [*Deadpool & Wolverine's* *very* R-rated romp](https://spyglass.org/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-win/), and now this retro *Fantastic Four* – gives clear guidance on a path forward here. To that end, [I'm slightly worried](https://spyglass.org/x-men-mcu/) about [the upcoming](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-wwdc-shuffle?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Hardly%20a%20surprise,%5BTHR%5D) new *Avengers* movies. Their formula sounds the same as the formula that has now become broken for Marvel. And the fact that there are going to be about 200 characters to weave in – including, yes, the Fantastic Four (and the X-Men) – seems like it's going to be hard to do in a two hour movie. I still can't help but wonder if they shouldn't have made it a streaming series instead to give it the required room to breathe. There's no way they would have done that given the estimated costs involved – each 2-hour-plus movie is thought to cost around $500M – but again, thinking outside the box is what's seemingly working for Marvel right now. Instead, we're full-steam ahead one yet another *Avengers* movie with everyone involved and [seemingly an unfinished script](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/rebecca-romijn-avengers-doomsday-script-not-finished-1236330361/?ref=spyglass.org) (though that's also [apparently pretty standard for Feige](https://variety.com/2019/film/features/kevin-feige-avengers-endgame-marvel-studios-1203188721/?ref=spyglass.org), as he likes to have the movies "evolve" as they're being made). I would say they should just focus on making good movies. But again, *Thunderbolts* was [pretty good](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/thunderbolts/?ref=spyglass.org) – whereas *Captain America: Brave New World* was [not](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/captain-america-brave-new-world/critic-reviews/?ref=spyglass.org) – it didn't matter, at the box office, at least. --- **Update August 4, 2025**: Well, so much for that good opening. *The Fantasntic Four* looks to have done [a big old belly flop](https://www.thewrap.com/fantastic-four-box-office-second-weekend/?ref=spyglass.org) in week 2, dropping [66%-67%](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/business/media/the-naked-gun-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org), which is not good – yes, even for a big superhero movie; *Superman*, for example, [fell 53% in week two](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/fantastic-four-first-steps-box-office-sharp-drop-1236336444/?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, *Fantastic Four* still won the weekend, but that kind of drop does not speak well to its staying power. And that's all the more surprising because it has good word-of-mouth [and reviews](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fantastic-four-first-steps/?ref=spyglass.org). This drop suggests a domestic box office closer to $250M when it's done – and a worldwide gross of perhaps just $500M. Again, not good if the movie cost $300M to make and market. More below... [Marvel, We Have a Superhero ProblemThe fantastic fall of ‘The Fantastic Four’ at the box office…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-106.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/fantasticfour-firststeps-review-blogroll-1753191165513.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/fantastic-fall-at-the-box-office/) ### The Have Lots & the Have Nots URL: https://spyglass.org/the-have-lots-the-have-nots/ Last updated: 2025-09-02T14:09:12.000Z It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... On one hand, tech companies are paying record amounts of money to bring talent to their teams (or to retain them). On the other, there are massive layoffs happening at various tech companies – *sometimes at the same companies* paying those record sums to others! It's just an absolutely wild dichotomy. And naturally, AI is behind it all. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft have all had layoffs in recent months while at the same time also engaging in the crazy talent arms race that's happening in AI. These companies are essentially saying to some employees that they're so valuable that they're worth paying not just a lot of money, but more money than basically anyone in the world gets paid – including, often, their own CEOs. And yet to others, they're basically saying they're worthless – I mean literally not worth paying anything to any longer. Just to put it in directionally stark terms: some employees are worth $100M a year while others are worth $0 a year. There have always been pay discrepancies at companies – and it has long been most pronounced at tech companies because engineering talent is so vital to the literal job to be done. And yes, there exist the mythical "100x engineers" who can produce work that may actually be worth *more than* 100 other people because no other people could simply do the same work. But AI has taken this up several notches. We now effectively have "100Mx engineers" – people so valuable to a company that there more or less is no limit to the amount they might be worth. I would say maybe a company's overall market cap – but there would be push back against that because some would say that this talent can likely raise that market cap by *billions*. I mean, at least one report has Mark Zuckerberg throwing out the "B" word in such talent discussions. [As Berber Jin, Keach Hagey, and Ben Cohen reported a couple weeks ago in *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-ai-recruiting-mark-zuckerberg-sam-altman-140d5861?ref=spyglass.org): > In the spring, Zuckerberg approached OpenAI’s chief research officer, Mark Chen, for a casual catch-up and ended up asking him for advice on how to improve his company’s generative-AI organization. Given how much money Meta was already spending on hardware and computing power to train AI—more than 100 times what it was spending on humans—Chen suggested that Zuckerberg might want to invest more in talent, according to people familiar with the conversation. > > Zuckerberg asked Chen if *he* would consider joining Meta—and what it would take to bring him aboard. > > A couple hundred million dollars? *A billion?* > > Chen demurred, saying he was happy at OpenAI. But the conversation helped plant the seeds of an idea. Soon, Zuckerberg was offering not quite a billion dollars – well, that we know of – but [*several hundred million dollar* pay packages](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/). And just as remarkably, many of [those 'Godfather' offers](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) have been *turned down*, it seems. [Though not all of them](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/). And without question, Meta is having some level of success in simply [throwing money at their problem](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/). In particular with money thrown towards OpenAI employees not named Mark Chen ([which he is *not* happy about](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-meta-leadership-talent-rivalry/?ref=spyglass.org), naturally). And actually, if we include [the Scale AI "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) in these equations, Zuckerberg definitely *is* paying some of the talent *billions* – namely, [the CEO he poached in Alexandr Wang](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). But in that regard, [the same is true of Google](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/). With similar situations within [Amazon](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/) and [Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) too thanks to these faux deals. Again, these are the same companies also doing layoffs while paying record amounts to others they now employ. Microsoft, having just done a fresh layoff of 9,000 employees, has [cut 15,000 jobs so far this year](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167437603/the-best-of-ai-times-the-worst-of-ai-times?ref=spyglass.org) – just months after [having paid $650M to hackquire](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) the CEO of an AI startup and some of his staff, thus kicking off the trend in tech. And to add insult to the injury, Microsoft is making these cuts amidst record numbers from their own financial perspective. It's [a dichotomy so overt](https://www.geekwire.com/2025/in-new-memo-microsoft-ceo-addresses-enigma-of-layoffs-amid-record-profits-and-ai-investments/?ref=spyglass.org) that CEO Satya Nadella had to face up to the elephant with an internal memo ([which Microsoft also published on their blog](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/07/24/recommitting-to-our-why-what-and-how/?ref=spyglass.org), undoubtedly knowing that it would leak) two days ago. Here's how Nadella kicked off his memo: > Before anything else, I want to speak to what’s been weighing heavily on me, and what I know many of you are thinking about: the recent job eliminations. These decisions are among the most difficult we have to make. They affect people we’ve worked alongside, learned from, and shared countless moments with—our colleagues, teammates, and friends. > > I want to express my sincere gratitude to those who have left. Their contributions have shaped who we are as a company, helping build the foundation we stand on today. And for that, I am deeply grateful. > > I also want to acknowledge the uncertainty and seeming incongruence of the times we’re in. By every objective measure, Microsoft is thriving—our market performance, strategic positioning, and growth all point up and to the right. We’re investing more in CapEx than ever before. Our overall headcount is relatively unchanged, and some of the talent and expertise in our industry and at Microsoft is being recognized and rewarded at levels never seen before. And yet, at the same time, we’ve undergone layoffs. > > This is the enigma of success in an industry that has no franchise value. Progress isn’t linear. It’s dynamic, sometimes dissonant, and always demanding. But it’s also a new opportunity for us to shape, lead through, and have greater impact than ever before. That last paragraph in particular is a doozy.[1](#one) He's essentially saying that what Microsoft has done in the past doesn't matter for the future – which is, of course, not entirely true as [the continued trouble with bundling that Microsoft runs into](https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-eu-microsoft-teams-bundle-proposal/?ref=spyglass.org) can attest, but you get the sentiment he's going for here. And in the Age of AI, Nadella clearly believes this is more true than ever before. They simply cannot afford – quite literally – to hold on to the past, including, sadly, some employees who helped build that past. Because they'll be baggage that's not needed on this next journey. Microsoft, of course, isn't framing it exactly like that. But I'm translating it like that for you, because that's what they mean. And they're hardly alone. It's the same reason for layoffs at the other tech giants as well even in this time of seeming strength for the industry. [Everyone knows](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/strap-in-vision-pro-owners?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7the-risks-for-microsoft-and-nvidia-as-they-near-t) that it's better to do hard things when you can *choose to* from a position of overall strength, rather than being forced to in times of trouble. And the AI disruption is giving all of these companies the cover they need to make changes. It's harsh but true. And the CapEx. [Oh, the CapEx](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/). Each and every earnings report for these companies, it just keeps going up. [Google was the latest this past week](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/169221774/alphabets-q?ref=spyglass.org), raising their estimated spend from $75B to $85B for the year. And it may very well go up again! Again, this flys in the face of those layoffs. The companies are spending upwards of $100B a year on servers and chips for AI yet they can't afford the salaries of a few thousand employees? What's the max that could cost them? (ChatGPT tells me the number for the 15,000 laid off Microsoft employees is something like **$2.25B a year** – which includes benefits into the equation, and clearly is more of an "average" employee at Microsoft in terms of comp, not an AI employee!) Of course, that's not the real equation here, because Microsoft (and the others) *can* afford these employees. They *choose* to not afford these employees under the cloud of future AI disruption. Maybe that's prudent, maybe it's not. But it's happening. And there's other math at work here too.[2](#two) Including, perhaps the *optics* kind – where these companies get to show Wall Street that they're being at least somewhat fiscally prudent even in the face of spending these fresh billions. To bring it all back around, those billions being spent on CapEx frame this quite differently [in relative terms](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/). Said another way: if you're spending upwards of $50B - $100B a year on AI infrastructure, what's spending $100M or $200M or yes, *even $1B* on the talent required to make it actually work? Meta has already tried once to ramp infrastructure spend without – [in hindsight](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) – the right team (and perhaps [the right strategy](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/)). They were "cheaping out" on the talent, is one way to think about it, I suppose. Said yet another way: that $100B spent on CapEx may as well be worth $0 if you don't have the right team in place to actually leverage that technology and built something of immense value. Meta isn't spending that money just to spend it, they're spending it to try to make future Meta billions more in profit a year. $100M+ AI talent – [a market they're setting](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?ref=spyglass.org), of course – [may or may not](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) be what is standing in their way, but they literally can't afford for that to be what's holding them back. But they *can* afford, again, quite literally, to let go of *any employees* who are holding them back in so far as they were working on things that are no longer valuable to the company on this new mission. It's brutal, but it's business. Which is to say, get as much AI-related work on those resumes as you can, fast.[3](#three) --- 1 And, oddly, only [the *second strangest* "enigma" reference](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/07/wall-street-journal-donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein-birthday-letter-lawsuit/?ref=spyglass.org) in recent weeks. 2 And yes, a lot of the recent Microsoft lay-offs were around Xbox as well, which continues to be [a sort of mess from a business and strategy-perspective](https://spyglass.org/exbox/) for the company – and certainly [not helped by a $69B acquisition](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/167437603/the-best-of-ai-times-the-worst-of-ai-times?ref=spyglass.org)! 3 Ideally, perhaps, not resumes *built by AI*, but I'm honestly not sure how much that matters. ### A Mere Thought of a Flick of the Wrist URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-mind-wristband-ctrl-labs/ Last updated: 2025-09-02T14:10:05.000Z [ Meta Unveils Wristband for Controlling Computers With Hand Gestures When you write your name in the air, you can see the letters appear on your smartphone. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) The New York Times Cade Metz ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/07/22/multimedia/22hs-meta-wristband-tpgf/22hs-meta-wristband-tpgf-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/science/meta-computer-wristband-reardon.html?ref=spyglass.org) It's sort of wild to think that far more people currently interact with computers through multi-touch than do through a mouse and keyboard. And while the smartphone is clearly going to be here to stay for a while – [much to the chagrin of Meta](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) and [Amazon ](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/)– there also clearly needs to be a new interaction paradigm for what's next. And if you believe that what's next isn't likely going to be one thing at [the scale of the iPhone](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/), but instead [a collection of devices](https://500ish.com/computing-in-concert-679e68c14b8a?ref=spyglass.org) all [tied together through though AI](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/), it's reasonable to think there will also be multiple types of input. [Voice will undoubtedly be one](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/). And gestures perhaps another... > The prototype looks like a giant rectangular wristwatch. But it doesn’t tell the time: It lets you control a computer from across the room simply by moving your hand. > > With a gentle turn of the wrist, you can push a cursor across your laptop screen. If you tap your thumb against your forefinger, you can open an app on your desktop computer. And when you write your name in the air, as if you were holding a pencil, the letters will appear on your smartphone. Makes sense and Meta has [talked about](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/) and even [shown off this wristband before](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1579898739002515457?ref=spyglass.org) alongside [prototypes of some new devices](https://spyglass.org/metas-frenetic-connect-keynote/) they've been working on. But what about gestures *without actually gesturing*... > Designed by researchers at Meta, the tech giant that owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, this experimental technology reads the electrical signals that pulse through your muscles when you move your fingers. These signals, generated by commands sent from your brain, can reveal what you are about to do even before you do it, as the company detailed in a research paper published on Wednesday [in the journal Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09255-w?ref=spyglass.org). > > With a little practice, you can even move your laptop cursor simply by producing the right thought. “You don’t have to actually move,” Thomas Reardon, the Meta vice president of research who leads the project, said in an interview. “You just have to intend the move.” This sounds like science fiction, but I can assure you that it's science fact. I know this because almost a decade ago, I was sitting in my office when I got a demo of an early build of this technology. It was hands-down – pun very much intended – the coolest live demo I had seen in person. And so making an investment call, as GV did in what was then called CTRL-Labs, was an easy one. That demo – again, this was about eight years ago – went something like this: a person – in this particular case, Reardon – is sitting at a desk typing on a computer wearing a large wristband on one hand while the words he's typing appear on screen. But then the computer is taken away and he keeps moving his fingers as if he was typing on that same keyboard that is no longer there – *and the words he's typing still keep coming on the screen*. Then he ***stops moving his fingers***. The words just keep going. [Meta smartly snapped up the company nearly six years ago](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/23/20881032/facebook-ctrl-labs-acquisition-neural-interface-armband-ar-vr-deal?ref=spyglass.org), and they've been perfecting the very same technology in-house ever since. > Meta’s wristband uses a technique called electromyography, or EMG, to gather electrical signals from muscles in the forearm. These signals are produced by neurons in the spinal cord — called alpha motor neurons — that connect to individual muscle fibers. > > Because these neurons connect directly to the muscle fibers, the electrical signals are particularly strong — so strong that they can be read from outside the skin. The signal also moves much faster than the muscles. If a device like Meta’s wristband can read the signals, it can type much faster than your fingers. > > “We can see the electrical signal before you finger even moves,” Dr. Reardon said. One challenge back in those early days was the training required to get this to work beyond the individual on which such a system was tailored for. It worked, but it took a lot of calibration. Enter AI: > Although Dr. Reardon and his colleagues have been privately demonstrating their technology for years, they are only now beginning to publicly share their work because it is now mature enough for the marketplace. The key development is the use of A.I. techniques to analyze the EMG signals. > > After collecting these signals from 10,000 people who agreed to test the prototype, Dr. Reardon used a machine learning system called a [neural network](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/technology/google-artificial-intelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org) — [the same breed of A.I. that drives ChatGPT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/26/upshot/gpt-from-scratch.html?ref=spyglass.org) — to identify common patterns in this data. Now, it can look for these same patterns even when a different person is using the device. > > “Out of the box, it can work with a new user it has never seen data for,” said Patrick Kaifosh, director of research science at Reality Labs and one of the neuroscientists that founded Ctrl Labs. It sounds like it's not quite ready to roll as an external product yet, but it's close. > According to Dr. Reardon, who is also known as the founding father of the Internet Explorer web browser at Microsoft, Meta plans to fold the technology into products over the next few years. Last fall, the company [demonstrated](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/technology/meta-products-artificial-intelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org) how its wristband could be used to control an experimental version of its [smart glasses](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/technology/personaltech/smart-glasses-ray-ban-meta.html?ref=spyglass.org), which can take photos, record videos, play music and verbally describe the world around you. Do they pair it with the Meta Ray-Ban Smart Glasses? [The 'Orion'](https://spyglass.org/apple-knew-where-the-puck-was-going-but-meta-skated-there/) ([now codenamed 'Artemis'?](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/snaps-ar-specs-set-for-next-year?ref=spyglass.org)) "true" AR glasses? [Something](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164990246/meta-prioritizing-ultralight-headset-with-puck?ref=spyglass.org) [else](https://spyglass.org/puffin-daddy/)? All the above? And will it be exclusive to Meta AI/AR products or will they let the wristband work with say, your MacBook? I could see arguments both ways, but we all know how much Mark [Zuckerberg hates (envies) the tight integration](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-041-its-political-personal/#:~:text=%F0%9F%98%8E%20Mark%20Zuckerberg,first.%20%5B9to5Mac%5D) that say, the Apple Watch has with the iPhone... Speaking of Apple, how do they eventually play in this space? With said Apple Watch? [A ring?](https://spyglass.org/apple-rings-and-glasses/) Obviously the Vision Pro is built around [gesture-based controls](https://spyglass.org/a-vision-of-force-touch/), but they're visual. The Apple Watch has some which are movement-based. But this Meta wristband is the next level, clearly. > In a similar way, Meta’s wristband lets you control a computer with the appropriate thought. Merely thinking about a movement is not enough. But if you *intend* to make a movement, thewristband can pick up on what you aim to do — even if you do not physically move. > > “It feels like the device is reading your mind, but it is not,” Dr. Reardon said. “It is just translating your intention. It sees what you are about to do.” > > When you move your arm or hand or finger, the number of muscle fibers you activate varies depending on how big or how small the movement is. If you practice using the wristband long enough, you can learn to activate a tiny number of fibers without actually moving your fingers. > > “We can listen to a single neuron. We are working at the atomic level of the nervous system.” I'm obviously biased given the above (though I have no current conflicts here beyond the occasional friendly back-and-forth with Reardon), but this is wild. And it will be more so when it's actually in the wild. [The Anti iPhoneJony Ive’s antidote to the smartphone obsession he helped usher in…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-23.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_device_made_by_jony_ive_thats_powered_by_chatgpt_--ar_b9a93715-d27f-4628-8e0d-2ee702931830_1-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) [Computing in Concert“Voice will never be the interaction model,” they say, out loud, to communicate their thoughts.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/10fd5c419ac61637245384e7099e131627900034828f4f386bdaa47a74eae156-14)500ishM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1-whQrFdYOdxbNAK4pHKrA1g.jpeg)](https://500ish.com/computing-in-concert-679e68c14b8a?ref=spyglass.org) [OpenAI Changes the Vocal Computing Game!No sarcasm, just enthusiasm for GPT-4o![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-24.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/her-movie-review-1-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/its-all-about-the-o/) [Amazon Joins the Race for “What’s Next” After the iPhoneJ Allard brings some device pedigree to Amazon’s ‘ZeroOne’ team…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-26.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-30--2025--12_56_51-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-ai-device/) [Meta’s March to Make the iPhone ‘The Thing That Gets Us to the Thing’The company will build anything and everything to end the smartphone era…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-25.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/599220-5.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-iphone-is-the-thing/) ### Big Tech's Big Hedge with Big AI URL: https://spyglass.org/big-tech-big-hedge-big-ai/ Last updated: 2026-03-03T19:31:46.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_craps_table_at_a_casino_--v_7_ae9320be-e2f7-4f89-9b0e-7b2518204ee6_3-1.png) If you can't beat them, be in them. That's the saying, right? Well, it is now. As one of the more wild things to me in our current Age of AI is an element that's so blatant, almost no one seems to really talk about it: the fact that basically all of Big Tech owns sizable chunks of Big AI. I mean that literally. As in, most of the biggest companies in technology – which are now, of course, the biggest companies in the world – are massive equity holders on the cap tables of most of the biggest up-and-coming companies in AI. There are various reasons for these deals, which I'll get to, but at the highest level, it provides massive downside protection in the event that these AI companies take over the world. Yes, it's a hedge... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### ESPN Looks to Ride the NFL to Streaming Success URL: https://spyglass.org/espn-nfl-streaming/ Last updated: 2025-08-31T07:07:57.000Z [ESPN and NFL closing in on ‘Next Era’-defining media dealWhat could be in the deal: Red Zone Channel, NFL Network, seven regular-season games, enhanced betting and fantasy possibilities.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/athletic-icon-192x192-2.png)The AthleticAndrew Marchand![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/GettyImages-2211843046-scaled.jpg)](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6509767/2025/07/23/espn-nfl-media-network-jimmy-pitaro-streaming/?ref=spyglass.org) Say you're about to launch a new sports streaming service, what's the one way to guarantee success? Getting the sports *programming* that guarantees success. The NFL. > Now, according to sources briefed on negotiations, ESPN and the NFL are inside the five-yard line on another ground-breaking deal that may not have the impact of 1987 but could be historic, as the all-sports network makes its programming available in a direct-to-consumer product this fall that will cost $29.99 per month. ESPN is hyping this upcoming iteration as “The Next Era.” What follows is a preamble longer than LeBron James' ["The Decision"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FDecision%5F%28TV%5Fprogram%29?ref=spyglass.org) moment. So what is the actual "big deal"? *Nine* paragraphs later, we get to it: > What could be in the deal is the Red Zone Channel, NFL Network, seven regular-season games that appear on NFL Network, enhanced betting and fantasy league possibilities. There may be more. This is, of course, a deal that has been [rumored for months](https://puck.news/could-espn-take-redzone-off-the-nfls-hands/?ref=spyglass.org) if not *years*. But it's no less of a big deal, in particular tying it to the new, soon-to-launch ESPN streaming service. The key to get consumers to pay such a high price for a single streaming service – double, or more, as presumably Red Zone will be an add-on/up-sell here, the price of many of the others – will be the content. And in particular, the sports available. The actual games. And again, the NFL will be key if they want it to be a success right out of the gate. And ESPN will undoubtedly have to pay dearly for that. No deal terms are given, but Marchand notes they "will be enormous". And in that light, it makes more sense why ESPN has seemingly [pulled back from the MLB](https://spyglass.org/espn-balks-mlb-walks/) [and](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/) [out of F1](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/). They're going all-in on the NFL, at least to launch this service. If this deal gets done, it's effectively an ESPN/NFL streaming service. Of course, it still won't have all the NFL games. And that's in no small part due to ESPN parent Disney's streaming rivals. To get access to all the games beyond those that air on network TV on CBS and Fox, you'll need Amazon Prime Video, Peacock, YouTube, and [yes, Netflix](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/). But still, for any football fan, this makes ESPN's streaming service [a must-have on day one](https://spyglass.org/pro-football-pro-parenting-vision-pro/#:~:text=The%20NFL%20Swallowed,the%20Academy%20Awards.%20%F0%9F%8F%88). As Marchand states: > In 2024, of the 100 highest-rated programs on television, 72 were NFL games. This does not appear to be changing anytime soon. A year ago, long before the details of ESPN's streaming service were known – including [the refreshingly simple name](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) and price – I laid out a vision for '[**ESPN's Path to Be \*the\* Streaming Sports Bundle**](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/)'. In it, I wrote: > Anyway, if any of the above is correct, it's good to see Disney/ESPN waking up to what they should be doing here. The judge axing Venu may end up a blessing in disguise for the company, as they need to [stop throwing spaghetti against the wall](https://spyglass.org/espn-plus-plus-plus/) and start throwing heaters. Focus on [the actual ESPN streaming service](https://spyglass.org/disneys-has-a-lot-of-streaming-services/). Bring in your expensive national games. Bring in some local/regional ones. SportsCenter and all the talking-head shows. Wrap it up in a nice "Where to Watch" bow. Oh yes, and gambling too, of course. > > All that may be worth $30/month. And you can perhaps get away with offering it for [such a "low" price](https://spyglass.org/do-you-venu/) because all of the content will have ads baked in. Maybe there's a $40/month tier to remove it from some non-live programming. And then, of course, Disney can [bundle it galore](https://spyglass.org/disney-streaming-bundle/) with their other properties > > [And "boom," goes the dynamite.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W45DRy7M1no&ref=spyglass.org) These are the exact right first steps – cut out all [the Venu noise](https://spyglass.org/do-you-venu/) (which was [cut out for them](https://spyglass.org/venu-vidi-vici-fubo/)) and [focus on](https://spyglass.org/espn-plus-plus-plus/) the ESPN app. And work to [aggregate](https://spyglass.org/espn-everywhere-strategy/) all [the content](https://spyglass.org/the-nba-on-tnt-is-dead-inside-the-nba-is-saved/) – namely popular sports games – you can [into the service](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-tv-guide/). But there's also clearly more competition now too. A few months after the post above, I wrote about '[**Amazon & ESPN's Sports Streaming Collision Course**](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/)'. Their approach is clearly a bit different, but still a pretty compelling aggregation of sports content [with RSNs](https://spyglass.org/amazon-sports-rsn/) and [the NBA about to be added](https://spyglass.org/amazon-dunks-on-tnt/) to the mix, [but fueled by, of course, the NFL](https://spyglass.org/amazon-nba/). And [despite years of denials](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/), Netflix is now here too, of course. [Driven by ads](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/). Still, Netflix was already a must-have streaming service. And Prime Video was one you already had by default thanks to Amazon's Prime service itself. Disney needed a clear path to ensure ESPN was one of those must-haves, especially coming so late to the streaming game. And it sounds like they're going to have that path, thanks to the NFL. Don't say "game on"... Don't say "game on"... Don't say "game on"... --- **Update July 24, 2025**: [Alex Sherman of *CNBC* is now reporting](https://www.cnbc.com/sign-up-for-cnbc-newsletters/?ref=spyglass.org) that this deal may be tied to the NFL investing in ESPN – perhaps buying a 10% stake. Disney has [long been looking](https://mgs.blog/a-new-mayer-at-the-staggs-party-e3c6b55c3bbb?ref=spyglass.org) for [this type of partnership](https://spyglass.org/espn-plus-plus-plus/), in part to offset the costs of buying sports rights, so it would seemingly make a lot of sense to partner with the league with the most expensive (and coveted) sports rights! --- 👇 ****More on this topic...** [ESPN’s Path to Be \*the\* Streaming Sports BundleIt’s not exactly “clear”, as Amazon may battle them along the way…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-17.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ESPN-logo-living-room--3--7.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) [ESPN Minus the PlusDisney keeps the branding simple, for once…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-18.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-9--2025--11_25_40-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) [Amazon & ESPN’s Sports Streaming Collision CourseWith Netflix drafting behind them…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-16.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_F1_cars_with_the_logos_of_Amazon_and_ESPN_and_Netflix_a_4f948e35-d214-4a92-ba80-8ac8050bcc7b_0-2-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) ### AI Can Reproduce Writing, But Not the Process of Writing URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-writing-inputs-outputs/ Last updated: 2025-08-26T21:19:24.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_robot_typing_on_a_typewriter_--ar_43_--v_7_ce5a2bdf-676b-4dbc-a4a4-6ee5032afeba_0-1.png) The other day, Meghan O’Rourke, the executive editor of *The Yale Review*, wrote a guest essay for *The New York Times* entitled: [‘The Seductions of A.I. for the Writer’s Mind’](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/opinion/ai-chatgpt-school.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) A friend sent it to me knowing I may have strong opinions on it given my love of writing and my [many thoughts on AI](https://spyglass.org/tag/ai/). And I do. While I appreciate that the post is actually fairly nuanced on the topic, with the author bringing up both upsides and downsides of weaving the technology into her own work and workflow (and those of her students), I also feel like she largely overlooks something which, to me at least, is perhaps the key way to frame this whole debate. Everyone is so worried about how AI is going to alter the written word — well, the typed word, I suppose — across basically every dimension. That is to say, the **output**. But really, the key thing to focus on here may be the **input**. And by that I don’t mean the words that are sucked into the large language models in order to train them. But I mean the input that goes into your head. Into your brain. Said another way: to me, the most important element of writing isn’t what you put on the page, it’s how the process of putting something on the page alters your thoughts... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### 'Stargate' Gazing URL: https://spyglass.org/stargate-openai-softbank-oracle/ Last updated: 2025-08-26T21:18:33.000Z Yesterday marked six months since [the official announcement of the 'Stargate Project'](https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/?ref=spyglass.org). From the start, [it sounded vague at best and perhaps misleading at worst](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) – since, at least in part, it seemed to be recycling some old announcements ([a pretty standard practice under the Trump administration](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/)). But hey, it was a big PR moment and win for OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank – not to mention a just-sworn-in President Trump. [A $500B commitment](https://spyglass.org/the-500b-phone-call/)! Over the next four years! $100B set to deploy "immediately"! AI! America! So how's it going? Here's [Eliot Brown and Berber Jin reporting for *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/softbank-openai-a3dc57b4?ref=spyglass.org): > A $500 billion effort unveiled [at the White House](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/tech-leaders-pledge-up-to-500-billion-in-ai-investment-in-u-s-da506cd4?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) to supercharge the U.S.’s artificial-intelligence ambitions has struggled to get off the ground and has sharply scaled back its near-term plans. > > Six months after Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son stood shoulder to shoulder with Sam Altman and President [Trump](https://www.wsj.com/topics/person/donald-trump?ref=spyglass.org) to announce the Stargate project, the newly formed company charged with making it happen has yet to complete a single deal for a data center. Not great, [Bob](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpUWrl3-mc8&ref=spyglass.org). But also hardly shocking given that it follows the report last month where Oracle CEO Safra Katz [told investors](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/with-friends-like-these?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Oracle%20CEO%20Safra%20Catz%20confirmed%20what%20everyone%20has%20assumed%3A%20six%20months%20after%20it%20was%20announced%20at%20the%20White%20House%2C%20the%20much%2Dhyped%20%24500B%20%27Stargate%20Project%27%20is%20still%20%22not%20formed%20yet%22.%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) that the 'Stargate' venture was "not formed yet". So what's the hold up? > Son’s and Altman’s OpenAI, which jointly lead Stargate, have been at odds over crucial terms of the partnership, including where to build the sites, according to people familiar with the matter. That sounds like a couple pretty fundamental problems for a massive data center project. They're now apparently hoping to start work on a scaled down data center in Ohio by the end of the year. > One recent complication between OpenAI and SoftBank has been over how extensively to build data centers on sites tied to SB Energy, a SoftBank-backed energy developer, according to people familiar with the matter. > > Altman has used the Stargate name, shared with a 1994 Kurt Russell film about aliens who teleport to ancient Egypt, on projects that aren’t being financed by the partnership between OpenAI and SoftBank. The trademark to Stargate is held by SoftBank, according to public filings. Yeah, I mean, if SoftBank is [putting up most of the money](https://spyglass.org/softbank-openai-money-money-money/) for the project, of course they're going to want to leverage their other businesses. Including, it seems, the trademark of the 'Stargate' brand, which is sort of wild that they own (presumably only as it relates to data centers, not to the actual IP from where the name comes from – as interestingly enough, [Amazon actually owns that](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stargate?ref=spyglass.org) thanks to their MGM purchase). And while it doesn't seem like an issue, it's interesting that OpenAI has been using SoftBank's 'Stargate' trademark pretty loosely – for example, they've been calling the site in Abilene, Texas the first 'Stargate' site, [even though it started long before SoftBank – and even OpenAI – were involved](https://spyglass.org/from-space-balls-to-stargate/). That site is actually [a layer cake of ownership](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) for a project Oracle has spearheaded and at first was being built thinking Elon Musk would use it for his xAI 'Colossus' site, before he broke away to build that on his own thinking Oracle was taking too long to build this data center out. And well, the first actual building on that site seemingly *just* came online – [*almost a year after 'Colossus'*](https://spyglass.org/spending-apples-cash/#:~:text=xAI%20apparently%20just,%5BFortune%5D). Have I mentioned that 'Stargate' itself [started as](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) a Microsoft/OpenAI project until that was killed by coups and other [internal issues](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) between those two sides? With the official 'Stargate' partnership itself delayed and seemingly scaled back for now, OpenAI is clearly moving ahead to find other venues, quite literally, for their needs. [As Shirin Ghaffary and Brody Ford report today for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-22/oracle-to-supply-openai-with-2-million-ai-chips-for-data-centers?ref=spyglass.org): > OpenAI and Oracle Corp. announced they will develop 4.5 gigawatts of additional US data center capacity in an expanded partnership, furthering a massive plan to power artificial intelligence workloads. > > OpenAI has yet to name the data center sites it will codevelop with Oracle, but states including Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin and Wyoming are under consideration. Together with its facility being built in Abilene, Texas, the company said it will have more than 5 gigawatts total in capacity, running on more than 2 million chips for AI work. Bloomberg earlier this month [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-02/oracle-openai-ink-stargate-deal-for-4-5-gigawatts-of-us-data-center-power?ref=spyglass.org) OpenAI’s plans to rent the additional data center capacity from Oracle. And while they're still going to apparently brand these as part of the 'Stargate Project', these are also technically not 'Stargate' deals as originally envisioned as SoftBank is not actually involved – at least not yet: > While OpenAI labeled the data center expansion with Oracle as part of its Stargate project, SoftBank isn’t financing any of the new capacity, the AI company said. In May, Bloomberg reported that SoftBank was [hitting snags](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/softbank-stargate-venture-with-openai-hits-snags-on-tariff-fears?ref=spyglass.org) in financing talks amid broader economic uncertainty around global tariffs. It seems the hope would be that SoftBank can [sort out their issues](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/) and that they can all retroactively fold these sites into the official 'Stargate' envelope. And while on the surface it may seem like it's just a branding exercise, there is – or was – a very real joint venture being set up between these entities with a lot of money involved. Up to $500B in fact! And perhaps even more now, to hear OpenAI – [and many](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [others](https://spyglass.org/stargate-project-rivals/) – tell it. It's all being obfuscated and muddled together in these various projects and agreements ([all around](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/just-win-baby?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7openai-to-announce-stargate-data-center-in-uae) [the world](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163988600/stargate-uae-likely-to-be-housed-in-massive-gw-data-center?ref=spyglass.org)), but at some point, actual partnership agreements may become an issue – [something OpenAI should know](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) [a thing or two about](https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/). For now, 'Stargate' still only exists in name, it seems. And just barely. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/1_mRpBjMvcMDWerhUngWU4VA.jpg) --- **Update**: And sure enough, [OpenAI has their own blog post](https://openai.com/index/stargate-advances-with-partnership-with-oracle/?ref=spyglass.org) out about the new data center deal with Oracle, but also with a few key **new** aspects worth calling out: First and foremost, sure enough, they're fully branding these new deals as an expansion of the 'Stargate' (they've seemingly dropped 'Project' from the name). And they're now labeling the Abilene site as 'Stargate I'. And while the entire post almost seems to exist to refute the reports above, it seemingly actually backs them up: > Complementing this expansion with Oracle, our partnership with SoftBank is moving forward with strong momentum. Both are critical to meeting OpenAI’s continually expanding compute needs. With SoftBank, we’re moving quickly on site assessments and reimagining how data centers are designed to power advanced AI. These efforts will result in more capable and reliable AI for those who use our tools. And this part seems specifically aimed at the reports that 'Stargate' is well behind plan (emphasis mine): > This significantly advances our progress toward the commitment we announced at the White House in January to invest $500 billion into 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure in the U.S. over the next four years. We now expect to exceed our initial commitment thanks to strong momentum with partners including Oracle and SoftBank. Meanwhile, this seems like the *new* key to the whole project: > Over the past six months, growing interest in Stargate has helped shape and expand our vision for this effort. Stargate is OpenAI’s overarching AI infrastructure platform—encompassing ongoing data center partnerships with Oracle, SoftBank and CoreWeave and international investments in U.S. infrastructure through [OpenAI for Countries⁠](https://openai.com/global-affairs/openai-for-countries/?ref=spyglass.org). Microsoft will continue to provide cloud services for OpenAI, including through Stargate. In other words, the project has shifted a bit. 'Stargate' is now fully "OpenAI's overarching AI infrastructure platform" – i.e. any one partner, i.e. SoftBank, isn't needed to be involved in every part of the plan. Also, CoreWeave, [not mentioned](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) in the original plan, is now a partner since... [OpenAI signed a deal with them as well](https://www.reuters.com/business/coreweave-signs-new-4-bln-deal-with-openai-filing-shows-2025-05-15/?ref=spyglass.org). Microsoft, meanwhile, only gets the acknowledgment in passing ([as you might expect](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/)). But that's better than [original equity partner MGX](https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/?ref=spyglass.org), which gets no mention at all... --- 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [‘Stargate’ Squares Some AI CirclesOpenAI, Microsoft, SoftBank, Oracle, Trump, MGX, ARM, and NVIDIA all get double-dip wins in the announcement![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-12.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Stargate-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) [We’re Seemingly Still in the “Throw Money At It” AI Era......and that’s great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-15.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) [The Stargate Data Center Layer CakeJPMorgan -> Crusoe -> Blue Owl -> Oracle -> NVIDIA -> SoftBank -> OpenAI ->…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-14.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BMTI5MTE1OTAzOV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNDc2OTgyMQ@@._V1_-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/) ### The Endless Rebranding of AI URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-agi-superintelligence/ Last updated: 2025-08-23T14:31:03.000Z There was a time when good old "AI" was enough. While the term largely lurked quietly in the background of computing since it was coined in the 1950s, it saw a bit of a boom in the 1980s. But by the time IBM's 'Deep Blue' system beat Garry Kasparov at chess in 1997, it started to explode into the lexicon. Soon after, we had a major motion picture directed by Steven Spielberg ([at the behest of Stanley Kubrick](https://www.theringer.com/2021/06/29/movies/ai-artificial-intelligence-steven-spielberg-stanley-kubrick?ref=spyglass.org), no less) that was not just about the concept, [but was *titled* as such](https://spyglass.org/ai-movie-ai/). Around the same time, Larry Page laid out a succinct vision for why artificial intelligence would be the future of Google in [a remarkably prescient video in 2000](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OT%5FUj2z3Z0&ref=spyglass.org). These days, it feels like the terminology is evolving just as fast as the technology. One might argue that IBM itself started to degrade the value of the "AI" term with their [endless 'Watson' hype](https://slate.com/technology/2022/01/ibm-watson-health-failure-artificial-intelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org) after yet another real world win, this time on *Jeopardy!* in 2011\. But when it came time to actually leverage the technology to do useful things such as fixing healthcare... [not so much](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/technology/what-happened-ibm-watson.html?ref=spyglass.org). But beyond that, another problem was that the term started to quickly evolve to encompass too many things. So we started to go more granular with Machine Learning and Deep Learning. But that was really just setting the stage to come back around to the high level concept of a computing system that could perform tasks just as a human would. And so "AGI" – "Artificial General Intelligence" was born to convey specifically that. Of course, with the rise of LLMs the past few years, AGI itself has become a muddled mess of definitions. And this became a real issue because companies were not just being built around the premise, but legal contracts and partnerships were being formed around the definition of the technology. A definition which was, as it turns out, [actually quite undefined](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/). When Microsoft was structuring their original deals with OpenAI, clearly the team from Satya Nadella on down thought that the world was so far away from "AGI" that they were okay not worrying too much about that term – "The Clause – in those contracts. [As Steven Levy wrote about recently for *Wired*](https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-and-openais-agi-fight-is-bigger-than-a-contract/?ref=spyglass.org): > There are two conditions that must be satisfied for OpenAI to deny its technology to Microsoft. First, the OpenAI board would determine that its new models have achieved AGI, which is defined in OpenAI’s charter as “a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work.” Fuzzy enough for you? No wonder Microsoft is worried that OpenAI will make that determination prematurely. Its only way to object to the OpenAI board’s declaration would be to sue. > > But that’s not all. The OpenAI board would also be required to determine whether the new models have achieved “sufficient AGI.” This is defined as a model capable of generating profits sufficient to reward Microsoft and OpenAI’s other investors, a figure upwards of $100 billion. OpenAI doesn’t have to actually make those profits, just provide evidence that its new models *will* generate that bounty. Unlike the first determination, Microsoft has to agree that OpenAI meets that standard, but can’t unreasonably dispute it. (Again, in case of a dispute a court may ultimately decide.) > > Altman himself admitted to me in 2023 that the standards are vague. “It gives our board a lot of control to decide what happens when we get there,” he said. And as [those two sides have drifted apart](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/), AGI and its definition is unsurprisingly at the center of battle of the future of OpenAI. Oh yes, and [Elon Musk is using the term in his own lawsuits](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) against the company he co-founded. All of this has undoubtedly contributed to 'AGI' drifting towards the newer 'Superintelligence' term. Latching on to the phrase (and title) from [the book by Nick Bostrom a decade ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:%5FPaths,%5FDangers,%5FStrategies?ref=spyglass.org) (though the term long predates that), many now might argue that it's a different term with the notion that while 'AGI' conveys human-level intelligence, 'Superintelligence' conveys well, just that – intelligence beyond human capabilities. But plenty of others view the two terms as interchangeable. [Here's an excerpt](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsoft-ai-9ded6031?ref=spyglass.org) from an article published two days ago in *The Wall Street Journal*: > After all, the definition of AI superintelligence, or AGI—as the industry calls it—is at the heart of [a high-stakes disagreement](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-and-microsoft-tensions-are-reaching-a-boiling-point-4981c44f?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) between Microsoft and OpenAI, and control over the technology being developed by Altman’s startup. And really, on some level, without actual, concrete definitions for such things, it's all just marketing anyway. As the 'AGI' issue became more of a point of clear tension in public between Sam Altman and Satya Nadella – with the former continually hinting that we're getting close to the 'AGI Moment' and the latter brushing aside such talk as ["nonsensical benchmark hacking"](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/) – Altman switched to [using 'superintelligence' more in his own talking points](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/) (though even more recently, [he's gone back to using AGI](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) quite often again, which is interesting...). Around the same time, yet another OpenAI co-founder, Ilya Sutskever, left OpenAI to form a new startup with the new term right in the company name: Safe Superintelligence. It's almost as if he knew that others were about to co-opt the term and so he wanted to make it clear what their intent was going to be: not just creating 'Superintelligence', but creating 'Superintelligence' in a ***safe*** way. [Subtle](https://spyglass.org/safe-superintelligence-openai/). Now Meta has entered the mix. Whereas Mark Zuckerberg's company seemingly [didn't care too much about 'AGI' previously](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/), now that [Llama has stumbled](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/), [he's rebooting their AI efforts](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) to be all around, what else? 'Superintelligence'. And he's spending, well, [whatever it takes](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) to get the 'Meta Superintelligence Labs' [up to speed](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) – including [poaching](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) Sutskever's co-founder and the former CEO of Safe Superintelligence, Daniel Gross. Wild times in 'Superintelligence' land. At the same time, Zuckerberg doesn't want to make it seem like Meta is simply entering a race already well in progress towards the goal. [So he's shifting the goalposts a bit](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) with a new splinter term: *'Personal Superintelligence'*. He was hitting the new talking point early and often in [a conversation with Jessica Lessin of *The Information* last week](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-zuckerbergs-ai-playbook-billions-compute-talent-arms-race-new-vision-meta?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir): > You know, I think the most exciting thing this year is that we’re starting to see early glimpses of self-improvement with the models, which means that developing superintelligence is now in sight, and we just want to make sure that we really strengthen the effort as much as possible to go for it. Our mission with the lab is to deliver personal superintelligence to everyone in the world, so that way we can put that power in every individual’s hand. And I’m really excited about it. It’s a different thing than what the other labs are doing. At first, you might have thought that he was just using "personal" as a framing for his viewpoint on Meta's approach. But no, he's trying to brand it: > I think personal superintelligence is a different vision than what the others are going for. It is kind of like when the internet was first getting to scale, people were like, all right, is the internet going to be for productivity? > > Is it going to be for entertainment, or is it going to change how we work at our companies? And the answer is, all. > > I think the same is going to be true for AI, and there are going to be different companies that focus on different parts of it. So far, I think that, you know, you hear a lot from the other labs around wanting to automate all of the economically productive work in society. And again, later on: > And I think the reality is that there’s a lot of great stuff to do there, and I’m excited about that. And I think when you put personal superintelligence in people’s hands, some of what they’re going to want to do is direct it at grand problems. But I actually think a lot of what people care about are just relatively simpler things in their lives. > > And part of our ethos and values have always just been to try to put that power into people’s hands directly. > > And that’s what we’re going to try to do with personal superintelligence. So it is a bit of a different focus, you know? I'm not sure I do know, but whatever. Again, it's just marketing. But wait, wait. Not to be outdone, we shift our attention back to Microsoft. Where Mustafa Suleyman, the co-founder of DeepMind, now the head of Microsoft's consumer AI efforts, is on a seemingly never-ending publicity tour. And this go-around he has a new talking point – mere days after Zuck's new terminology! And it's branding that only Microsoft could love: *'Humanist Superintelligence'*. In [an interview with Tim Higgens for *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsoft-ai-9ded6031?ref=spyglass.org): > Rather than worrying about creating some AI-god that we have to worry about squishing us all out of existence, he’d rather look to the technology as a tool to solve hard social problems—energy, education, medical care, food systems. > > “That’s what I call humanist superintelligence,” Suleyman said. “And that’s probably why you find me more focused on those things rather than on sort of AGI or superintelligence for its own sake.” Again, AGI and 'Superintelligence' are sort of interchangeable, and vaguely defined. But 'Humanist Superintelligence', that's Microsoft's thing. Got it? Left unsaid by Suleyman, *Microsoft actually cannot work on AGI, legally*. That pesky OpenAI contract also says as much, which sheds light on his talking points over the past year or so that Microsoft is happy to cede the "frontier" model work to OpenAI while they focus on building distilled, smaller, specialized models. They're happy to do that *because they have to do that*. But 'Superintelligence' – sorry, 'Humanist Superintelligence' – may give them a new opening to work at the frontier, [even before](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) [OpenAI declares AGI](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/). Which is totally different, you see. **One more thing**: don't forget ['Apple Intelligence'](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence/)! ([How could you?](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)) Also not AI. Not at all. [Don't you dare compare them](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-apple-ai/). --- **Update July 22, 2025**: As [Drew Breunig points out on Xitter](https://x.com/dbreunig/status/1947685218498056644?ref=spyglass.org), I forget a key entrant in the evolution: Generative AI – aka: "gen AI" – aka: an even more vague term for AI. --- 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [The Killing of a Sacred Late ShowThe message sent by the end of ‘The Late Show’ was obviously always going to be political even if it was driven by financial reasons…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/The-Late-Show-with-Stephen-Colbert-071725-1-afab56474984495c9f4f1ea70a588f00-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/) [Meta’s AI Relativity TheoryMark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/) [Open Source AI was the Path Forward...until it wasn’t for Meta![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-11.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0-2-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/) ### The Killing of a Sacred Late Show URL: https://spyglass.org/a-closing-gift-mr-president/ Last updated: 2025-08-23T14:30:48.000Z Two great posts yesterday about the Stephen Colbert cancellation situation – [commentary from John Gruber](https://daringfireball.net/2025/07/curse%5Fnot%5Fthe%5Fking%5Fcbs%5Fcolbert%5Ftrump?ref=spyglass.org) and [reporting from Matt Belloni](https://puck.news/was-colberts-cancellation-really-economic-for-cbs/?ref=spyglass.org). Gruber actually [linked to Belloni's piece](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/07/19/belloni-colbert-economic?ref=spyglass.org) after his as a sort of counter-point to the notion that this entire situation was fishy. Which is a nice way of saying "political bullshit". Belloni's sources insist that the party line is true: that this wasn't political, but it was purely financial. (Though he seems skeptical of that as well.) [As I said the other day](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-ai-comp-equations?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Is%20the%20Stephen,%5BNYT%5D), both things can obviously be true. Or, to quote [the meme](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/why-not-both-why-dont-we-have-both?ref=spyglass.org): why not both? Look, let's just [Occam's razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s%5Frazor?ref=spyglass.org) this shit. Late Night TV, despite *The New York Times* oddly covering it [on a daily basis](https://www.nytimes.com/newsletters/best-of-late-night?ref=spyglass.org), is a dying dinosaur. It's not *bad* – though I'm not sure how qualified I actually am to say that, as I don't watch it aside from the occasional clip online – it's just a barnacle attached to a sinking ship that is linear TV. The numbers are sort of nuts in terms of decline. Gruber cites [*LateNighter* for those](https://latenighter.com/news/ratings/late-night-tv-ratings-q2-2025/?ref=spyglass.org): > All told, the Stephen Colbert-hosted show averaged 2.42 million viewers across 41 first-run episodes, comfortably outpacing ABC’s [*Jimmy Kimmel Live!*](https://latenighter.com/tag/jimmy-kimmel-live/?ref=spyglass.org) (1.77 million) and NBC’s [*The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon*](https://latenighter.com/tag/the-tonight-show-starring-jimmy-fallon/?ref=spyglass.org) (1.19 million). In the advertiser-coveted 18–49 demo, however, *Kimmel* surged ahead with 220,000 viewers—his strongest performance in a year—edging out *Colbert* (219,000) and leaving *Fallon* (at 157,000) in a distant third. First off, it's just nuts that *The Tonight Show*, which pioneered and long dominated the space thanks, of course, to Johnny Carson (while Jay Leno somehow mostly held serve versus David Letterman, whom Leno famously beat out/screwed over for his gig, before he famously screwed over Conan O'Brien), is not just in third place now – *it's now half of Colbert's Late Show*. Meanwhile, it's getting destroyed as well by *Jimmy Kimmel Live*, which I recall well as it launched around the time I lived in Los Angeles. And I had an apartment about a block away from where it was taped on Hollywood Boulevard. I would often walk down the street to get food and they literally could not give those tickets away. Not because it was bad, but because it was ABC trying to get into this race. For years, it was a slog, and now they're leaving *The Tonight Show* – *The Tonight Show!* – in a distant third.[1](#one) How does Jimmy Fallon still have that job?![2](#two) Second, historical context, not just current context, matters. As Gruber notes: > For context, through the end of the 1990s and into the 2000s, Letterman and Leno [each drew around 4–6 million viewers per night](https://www.deseret.com/2000/1/23/19487374/late-show-scores-ratings-victory-vs-leno/?ref=spyglass.org). Johnny Carson averaged over 10 million viewers per night in the 1970s and 80s. Again, it's not that these shows are bad – though the clips I've seen of Fallon, beyond just the [Trump hair tousle nonsense](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIGcosb22%5FY&ref=spyglass.org), are pretty lame – it's that the format and the medium are over. These should all be 30 minute shows on YouTube now. Which sounds pathetic, but it's not. It's just true! With that in mind, obviously these shows are done, they just don't realize it yet. And that's in part because they're still key cogs in both the advertising and promotional space in the Hollywood systems. But if you're really losing *tens of millions of dollars a year* to produce these shows (which still seems up for some debate), you pull the plug at some point. But you also just would never expect the clear winner in the space to be the first to pull the plug! But there again, context matters. CBS is owned by Paramount and Paramount is at [the finish line](https://spyglass.org/paramount-skydance-logo/) of selling itself [to Skydance](https://spyglass.org/skydance-paramount-scale/). That deal, famously/infamously, has been dragged out as the Trump administration shook down *60 Minutes*, which [they ridiculously settled](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3w4n8778q2o?ref=spyglass.org) clearly in an effort to end the confrontation and get the deal done. And now the deal is on the verge of getting done but Trump is still going to be President for the next 3 years.[3](#three) With that in the back of your mind, occupying the exact same space as the knowledge that *The Late Show* will need to be put out of Late Night TV misery *at some point soon-ish*, why not kill two birds?... But, as Belloni reports: > Nobody can know for sure. All I can tell you is what I’m hearing. Several sources at both CBS and Skydance insist the decision was based on economics, not politics. After all, if this was about appeasing Trump, they argue, Cheeks would have pulled Colbert off the air ASAP rather than giving him 10 more months in the chair. “Trust me, there’s no conspiracy,” a very good source close to Colbert told me tonight. The "10 more months" element is an obviously silly strawman. It’s a move that would have been so explicit and outlandish that the backlash would have been insane. Why not practice subversion instead? This is not about what Colbert may or may not say on air, it's about sending a message. I'm not saying that CBS cancelled *The Late Show* because of Trump and/or broader politics. I'm suggesting that they may have done so *right* *now* because it's an extremely convenient time to do so given the likely optics boost they'd get with Team Trump – a message which, in fact, [was received loud and clear, clearly](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5408187-donald-trump-cbs-cancellation-late-show-stephen-colbert/?ref=spyglass.org). Yes, yes, there were contracts to renew or whatever. There always are. Even if they really didn't want to announce it now, obviously the news would have found its way to Team Trump. And obviously he still would have interpreted it as a show of fealty. And obviously he would have leaked it. Or even just said it out loud in some random press conference. And so obviously Colbert was wise to get ahead of any of that and just rip the Band-Aid off as soon as he heard the news. All of this said another way: why cancel the show in a year and get no benefit when you can do so now and get some goodwill from the current President? That's not a conspiracy, it's just logic for a company on the verge of a major merger. --- **Update July 22, 2025**: Jon Stewart, whose *Daily Show*, of course, airs on Comedy Central which is owned by the same parent company, Paramount, as CBS, and who helped launch Colbert's career on said show many years ago, naturally had some thoughts on the topic. A lot of *fucking* thoughts, one might say: --- 1 The fact that *Gutfeld!* pulls more audience than any of these (albeit slightly earlier in the night) is... I don't know... [at least as stupid](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1664469518805274625?ref=spyglass.org) as [that whole schtick is](https://mgs.blog/fox-news-dangerous-gutfeld-game-65a87846dc63?ref=spyglass.org)? 2 I suppose it could be because *no one* is about to have that job! 3 Or maybe next 7 years. Or maybe 11 years. Or longer. Or a lot shorter! We'll see. ### The Great Okay Part II URL: https://spyglass.org/the-great-okay-netflix/ Last updated: 2025-08-23T14:30:30.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/netflix-movies-2025--1-.webp) Five years ago, I noticed something funny. Well, actually not funny. Funny would be good in this situation. Let's go with odd. Basically every movie in the list of top performing (original) movies on Netflix [was mediocre](https://500ish.com/the-great-okay-5acf7f61bf9a?ref=spyglass.org). A couple were fine, a few were bad, but for the most part, they were right-down-the-middle mediocre. Yes, I based this largely off of their reviews (in aggregate), but having had seen most of them, it was impossible for me to disagree. It was either a testament to taste... not mattering. Or, more likely, to the power of Netflix. Here we are again five years later. [With their](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/168643121/netflixs-strong-q?ref=spyglass.org) Q2 earnings, [Netflix released a list of the best performing content so far this year](https://www.theverge.com/news/709288/netflix-q2-2025-earningsdouble-ad-revenue?ref=spyglass.org). While the shows are also fairly mixed (though led by *Adolescence*, which pretty much everyone says is amazing – I have not seen it), the movies, well... you know where this is going. Let's look at the list and each movie's *Metacritic* score (which [I find to be far more accurate](https://500ish.com/the-wisdom-of-the-well-informed-7270edec70cf?ref=spyglass.org) than *Rotten Tomatoes* scores for my own taste). The scores are out of 100: 1. ***Back in Action***: [46](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/back-in-action/?ref=spyglass.org) 2. ***Straw***: [56](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/straw/?ref=spyglass.org) 3. ***The Life List***: [49](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-life-list/?ref=spyglass.org) 4. ***Exterritorial***: [38](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/exterritorial/?ref=spyglass.org) 5. ***Havoc***: [57](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/havoc/?ref=spyglass.org) 6. ***The Secret Lives of Pets 2***: [55](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-secret-life-of-pets-2/?ref=spyglass.org) 7. ***The Electric State***: [30](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-electric-state/?ref=spyglass.org) 8. ***Counterattack***: [60](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt23648788/?ref%5F=tturv%5Fov%5Fi&ref=spyglass.org) 9. ***Ad Vitam***: [40](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/ad-vitam/?ref=spyglass.org) 10. ***Despicable Me 4***: [52](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/despicable-me-4/?ref=spyglass.org) ****A couple quick notes:** there are not enough reviews of **Exterritorial* to give it a proper 'Metascore', but the one we do have is a 38\. Plus, the [19 user scores average a 5.7](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/exterritorial/?ref=spyglass.org)... Second, I can't find any real reviews of **Counterattack –* aka *Contraataque –* but the IMDb rating (never a great proxy, but it's all we have) [nets out to 6 out of 10](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt23648788/?ref=spyglass.org)**.* From 30 to 60\. That is... a remarkably tight band of scoring for ten completely different movies. Literally the only thing that connects those movies beyond their popularity on Netflix are those scores, all right in the mediocre wheelhouse. Granted, unlike the list five years ago, Netflix didn't actually make all of these films – notably, the two animated movies here: *The Secret Lives of Pets 2* and *Despicable Me 4* – but they did make most of them. And this follows assurances [that quality was going to improve](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/netflix-movie-strategy-fewer-better-films-1235782546/?ref=spyglass.org). Overall, maybe it has, but certainly not in this Top 10 list. If anything, these movies are *worse* than the ones five years ago. I mean, have you seen *The Electric State*? It looks like a lot of you have! I saw it too. 30 – the lowest score on the list – is being too generous. It's bad. So bad – and so expensive – that [I managed to write 1,500 words](https://spyglass.org/the-electric-state-netflix-bad/) a few months ago about why that seemingly doesn't matter for Netflix. As I wrote: > Of course, it wasn’t released in theaters (well, beyond a couple for premieres). [Netflix doesn’t do theaters](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) ([except when they do](https://spyglass.org/can-barbie-break-netflix/)). Without a theatrical release, no one can hear your studio head scream. And a movie like this can basically do as well as Netflix wants it to when it comes to its position on the streaming charts, thanks to their all-important algorithms. And so a “bomb” becomes [just another bad movie](https://500ish.com/the-great-okay-5acf7f61bf9a?ref=spyglass.org). But while that may be subjective in real life, on Netflix, it’s just another data point, at worst. > > And I mean, it may even be [doing well for Netflix](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdelxr18pzlo?ref=spyglass.org). But it’s not doing well for me. Well, it apparently was doing well for Netflix. Well enough to be the seventh most-streamed movie of the first half of the year. I'm honestly just a little stunned by this list and how closely it reminds me of that list from five years ago. As I wrote back then: > Perhaps it’s the [instant-watch capability](https://500ish.com/netflix-now-c316e4c6bf16?ref=spyglass.org). Their [algorithm](https://5ish.org/p/its-not-about-your-email-its-about?ref=spyglass.org). Fewer movies “screened” ahead of time. The always-important [element of “new”](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1171607614762827776?lang=en&ref=spyglass.org). Or maybe it’s the “ah what the hell, [I’m already paying for this service”](https://500ish.com/that-im-already-paying-for-it-feeling-70e9b012980a?ref=spyglass.org) aspect. Or just that critical “taste” matters far less in the home. Whatever it is, it’s fascinating that these movies seem to outperform on Netflix, at least for now. > > The real risk here is that the audience starts to associate Netflix with mediocre films. It may not matter now — and [certainly not right now](https://500ish.com/fresh-content-for-stale-days-71f1a407f41?ref=spyglass.org), in the time of COVID. But down the line, if the audience can’t trust that what Netflix is putting in front of them is good, they’ll lose faith. I'd like to believe that remains a risk – and why Netflix has said they were going to focus on higher quality content going forward ([and they're not alone](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/)). But again, just look at the list. The situation hasn't changed and it hasn't mattered. Netflix is a $500B company perhaps on their way to being [the first $1T media titan](https://spyglass.org/netflix-one-trillion/). Maybe the masses just gravitate towards mediocre movies.[1](#one) But if [that's the case](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/), [Apple would be](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) the [biggest studio](https://spyglass.org/the-gorge-apple-tv/) in [the world](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) [right now](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/)! Instead, it took them making [an *actually* good movie](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) – albeit for far too much money – to actually get [the masses interested](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/). You know, how it should work! Except not for Netflix. They're playing a different game. Where distribution trumps quality. Clearly. [The Great OkayNetflix’s ability to get us watching mediocrity![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/10fd5c419ac61637245384e7099e131627900034828f4f386bdaa47a74eae156-13)500ishM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1-1m0dm0USj8kjcRcJxgjFVA.jpeg)](https://500ish.com/the-great-okay-5acf7f61bf9a?ref=spyglass.org) [Netflix’s ’Electric’ MistakeWhich simply doesn’t matter for Netflix, but would sink any other studio…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/001_TheElectricState_KeyArt_EO_THUMBNAIL_16x9-1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-electric-state-netflix-bad/) [The Streaming SalvageStreaming success for box office bombs is saving face and smart strategy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-5.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/75921626007-red-one-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/streaming-saves-christmas-and-a-stinker/) [The Netflixification of Russell CroweHollywood has morphed around the great actor![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-3.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Russell-Crowe-Exorcist-Sequel-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-netflixification-of-russell-crowe/) [HBO Became HBO Before HBO Could Become NetflixWell, technically ‘Max’, but you get the quip…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-4.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0x0-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/max-became-hbo-before-netflix/) --- 1 Yes, yes, who am I to judge? Except it's my site, and so I will judge. ### Meta’s AI Relativity Theory URL: https://spyglass.org/metas-ai-relativity-theory/ Last updated: 2025-08-21T19:29:54.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/Hyperion_Meta_Data_Center.original-1.png) To hear Mark Zuckerberg tell it, it’s all relative. Seriously, basically everything. At least when it comes to Meta and AI. That was the takeaway from [his brief chat with Jessica Lessin on *The Information’s* inaugural TITV broadcast](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-zuckerbergs-ai-playbook-billions-compute-talent-arms-race-new-vision-meta?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). After kicking off with his clearly prepared talking points, Lessin asked him about the Llama 4 situation — i.e. the model that [launched](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [a thousand](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) [hackquihires](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) — and thus began Zuck’s theories of *relativity*. You see, it's not that Llama was a mess, it’s that the rest of the field was “accelerating” and “moving faster”, *relatively* speaking. And they had to act because “superintelligence” is going to be here *relatively* soon. While others debate if it’s going to be here in three, five, or seven years, Zuck is more bullish: > "I just think that we should bet and act as if it’s going to be ready in the next two to three years. I believe there’s a shot at that. And if that is what you believe, you are going to invest hundreds of billions, for hours, whatever it takes to build out the strongest team." [Whatever it takes](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/). That, of course, leads to the question about the massive pay packages Meta has been dishing out. [The “Godfather” deals](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) and those being [accepted for *mere* seven or eight figures](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/). Zuck was sure to reiterate that what has been reported on such deals “aren’t accurate by themselves” — which reads a lot like a non-denial denial on the grounds of some semantics; aka, [the standard Meta playbook](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) — but then he immediately goes on to seemingly confirm at least the directional accuracy of such reports. > "But it is a very hot market. I mean, as you know, and there’s a small number of researchers, which are the best, who are in demand by all of the different labs. So I think that it certainly is quite competitive." Anyway, back to *relativity*: > "You know what I’d say. I think in perspective, if you’re going to be spending hundreds of billions of dollars on compute and building out multiple gigawatt of clusters, then, you know, it really does make sense to compete super hard and do whatever it takes to get that, you know, 50 or 70 or whatever it is, top researchers to build your team." Yes, that’s right, if you’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers, what’s a few hundred million on people? I mean, he’s not wrong. But that people market also happens to be *relative*! And compared to what others had been getting paid before the Meta offers started rolling in... well, it certainly reset the market. At the same time, maybe that’s the right way to look at and act upon the situation! What’s the point of [spending those hundreds of billions](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) if you can’t leverage all the compute to the greatest extent possible? And that takes the best people building the best models to leverage that infrastructure. And that takes money. A lot of money *relatively* speaking for people. Because Meta currently doesn’t employ most of those people. [And they’re coming from behind here](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). > "I think that the physics of this is you don’t need a massive team to do this. You actually kind of want the smallest group of people who can fit the whole thing in their head. So there’s just an absolute premium for the best and most talented people." Yes, *relative* to what you might need for other types of jobs and projects, Zuck thinks you don’t need a big team to make this all work. And that makes the comp packages for a *relatively* small amount of people all the more doable. > "So it kind of makes sense when you kind of think about it that, from that perspective, the amount that is being spent to recruit the people is actually still quite small compared to the overall investment and all when you talk about super intelligence." Again, he’s not wrong. But he’s also floating right past the relevant and *relative* market *before* he started doing these deals... > "I think personal superintelligence is a different vision than what the others are going for. It is kind of like when the internet was first getting to scale, people were like, all right, is the internet going to be for productivity?" “Superintelligence” too, as it turns out, may be *relative*! It’s not just a one-size-fits all thing in Zuck’s mind. There will be many facets of it. And the aspect Meta is going to focus on is “personal superintelligence”. Yes, for those keeping score at home, “AGI” has more or less been rebranded as “superintelligence” (though yes, many people argue they’re different, the fact [that no one has](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/) [an actual definition for AGI](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) means you simply cannot argue this either way) and now Zuck is trying to brand subsections of the rebrand, well before we’ve achieved any of it, naturally. Now on the to the translation round: > "But I think the products that we’re going to build are going to be, are going to be pretty different, and I think are just going to touch billions of people’s lives. > > We’re kind of the premier company at developing products and scaling them to billions of people" **Translation:** *relative* to our peers, we’re uniquely positioned to get such technology in the hands of far more people than anyone else. [Again, not wrong](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-everywhere/), but that was also true with Llama and Meta AI to date. In fact, [Zuck keeps touting](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/meta-restructures-ai-team-thats-killing-it?ref=spyglass.org) the scale that [Meta's AI products are currently at](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/). It apparently did matter — at least not enough to avoid having to reboot the entire team and effort [to start anew](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). > "And we’re, of course, leading in the next generation of computing platforms with the glasses that are doing exceptionally well. > > And I continue to think that that’s going to be the best form factor for AI, because, you know, they can see what you see and hear what you hear, and you can talk to them throughout the day." **Translation:** *relative* to everyone else, we’re also best-positioned with regard to devices to actually use the AI. [That may end up true](https://spyglass.org/meta-smart-glasses-snap/), but it’s such [early days](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-glasses/) of [all this](https://spyglass.org/meta-terminator-glasses/) that it’s [impossible to know that right now](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/). To be fair, Zuck does couch it all a bit with “think”. > "And it’s, it’s almost gonna be like, look, if you need vision correction and you don’t have glasses, just optical glasses, you’re sort of at this cognitive disadvantage. > > I think in the future, if you don’t have AI glasses, you’re basically going to be at a cognitive disadvantage too." **Translation:** without our glasses, you’re going to be a Neanderthal relative to other human beings. As someone who already wears glasses, I'm naturally fine with this world. But will the entire world be fine *needing* to wear glasses all the time? After all, only a literal idiot would not in this future hypothetical world. > "And one of the benefits of reinforcement learning is it gives you a venue to, you know, potentially convert very large amounts of capital into a better and better service, and potentially a better service than other less well-funded or less bold competitors will be able to do so. > > I view that as a competitive advantage. If we can get this to work well, and that’s why we are basically all in on this. We’re building, you know, we’re building multiple, multigigawatt data centers, and we can basically do this all funded from the cash flow of the company. We have a very strong business model that supports this. We have a very strong infrastructure team that is doing novel work to build up data centers." **Translation:** *Relative* to our peers, we’re printing cash. Every day. Every quarter. Every year. We can pour this back into everything we’re doing here. And because we have an experienced infrastructure team, we can do this even more efficiently compared to pretty much everyone else. This is obviously more of a direct shot at OpenAI — and to a lesser extent, Anthropic and the other AI startups. Because, of course, Google is in the same, and arguably *better* position here with regard to cash (certainly in that their revenue base is far more diversified than Meta’s) and infrastructure. Ditto for Microsoft. And Amazon. > "You know, I wanted them to not just take four years to build these concrete buildings. > > So we pioneered this new method where we’re basically building up these weatherproof tents and building out the networks and the GPU clusters inside them in order to build them faster. They are hurricane-proof tents." **Translation:** *Relative* to building actual data centers, we’re going to move far faster. With data… tents! I mean, okay! The question is how fast they’ll be able to move *relative* to [how fast Elon Musk spun up “Colossus”](https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/) — are Titan names also *relative*? Meta/Facebook was the first “move fast and break things” company — are they still willing to do that to the extent that it extends into the real world with [these data center builds](https://spyglass.org/the-stargate-data-center-layer-cake/)? > "We have people working around the clock on Prometheus and Hyperion, which are our first two Titan clusters that are going to be greater than a gigawatt. > > Hyperion is going to scale up to five gigawatts over the coming years. And I shared this image of it, but the size of the site covers a significant portion of the footprint of Manhattan in terms of space. That thing is just massive." A literal *relative* example! These data center footprints will be nearly the size of Manhattan! (I’m going to assume the data centers are [not actually going to be 2,000-feet tall](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-to-invest-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars-into-compute-to-build-superintelligence-with-several-multi-gw-data-center-clusters/?ref=spyglass.org) as the comparison image implies, but I digress...) > "You have a large amount of the energy—of people’s energy—in the area where it is getting built, going towards constructing it. It’s great for the community." That is certainly a *relative* statement. It’s great for the community compared to no money being spent perhaps, but what about *relative* to building, I don’t know, a park? Or a zoo? Or something else that’s not a massive power-sucking data center? > "I’m very excited that I think we’re going to have the largest compute fleet of any company, and focusing on that on being powered by a small and talent-dense team, I think we’re gonna have by far the most compute per researcher to do leading edge work. And I think that it’s just gonna be a really exciting, big few years coming." “Compute per researcher” definitely sounds like a compelling pitch *relative* to their peers. [For now](https://spyglass.org/project-stargate-agi-openai/) [at least](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-024/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A6%BE%20Elon%20Musk,cost.%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). But [the whole "open source AI" thing](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) was also supposed to be Meta's killer pitch. [It didn't really land, it seems](https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/)... > "I’m obviously spending a lot of time on recruiting and a lot has been written about money and all that. Like I said before, a lot of the numbers specifically have been inaccurate, but I think it discounts the other key reasons why people are super excited to come work on Meta Superintelligence Labs. > > And one of the biggest is that you can just have more leverage as a researcher. You have more compute right? I mean, basically historically, when I was recruiting people to different parts of the company, you know, people are like, OK, what’s my scope going to be? > > And, you know, here, people say, I want the fewest number of people reporting to me and the most GPUs. And so having basically the most compute per researcher is definitely a strategic advantage, not just for doing the work, but for attracting the best people. > > And I actually think that has been underreported as one of the main reasons why people are excited to come do this. The other is just having a clean slate is fun, right? I mean, a lot of times people refer to building up the infrastructure for these things." The "clean slate" point is fair enough. Though it's a classic attempt to turn a weakness – needing to start over – into a strength. But the problem with the "leverage" point is that it will obviously also just turn into a race. Zuck would say – and *is* saying, indirectly, at least – that OpenAI, for all [their fundraising prowess](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/), can't match what Meta can spend here. But again, Google certainly can! So can Amazon! Microsoft may be [pulling back a bit](https://spyglass.org/ai-data-center-demand/) from [that particular race](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/), but if they start clearly losing to those rivals, they have the capital as well, clearly. Oh yes, and Elon. xAI may not have all that capital, but Elon's [conglomerate of companies](https://spyglass.org/x-marks-xais-spot/) will figure out a way to outspend Zuck here if he needs to, one imagines... And that leaves... paying more in comp. Which remains the biggest question here. With Meta clearly resetting this market, will the others step up to match these offers? OpenAI is said to be in some cases. It seems like [Anthropic may be doing so as well](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/anthropic-hires-back-two-coding-ai-leaders-cursor-developer-anysphere?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) in others. Google? Again, if Meta can afford it, Google certainly can. But will their comp committees make the same determination about *relative* spend here? Is one desperate actor resetting the market enough? Remember, that actor also has something the other big, public players don't: founder control. So maybe it's less about whether or not they'll call Zuck's raise, *but if they can afford to* – not literally, which they can, but in the eyes of the market? Or the flipside might also be true: the market may determine they can't afford *not* to... **One more thing:** the way Zuck ends the chat is fun... > "Someone gave me this analogy that it’s like, it’s like building a house. The first one you build for your enemy, the second one you build for your friend, the third one you build for yourself. And you know, I think the ability to start from a clean slate, you know, where you’re not just at another company working on some other infrastructure, and you get the opportunity to build a new lab from scratch. It’s going to be, I think it’s just really appealing to a lot of people. Anyhow, yeah, I’m out there very focused on this." Quite the analogy. Essentially: “All your work today has been relative shit.” A [newfangled](https://spyglass.org/rip-bill-atkinson/) "Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life, or do you want to come with me and change the world?" Some might say that's a hard sale for Meta to make. But coming from Zuck *directly*... with millions and millions of dollars attached... It's all *relative*. ### Open Source AI was the Path Forward URL: https://spyglass.org/open-source-ai-was-the-path-forward/ Last updated: 2025-08-19T22:33:09.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_llama_at_a_fork_in_the_road_cartoon_--v_7_c9b104a1-864e-4273-ae51-d927024a17b3_0.png) me Almost exactly a year ago, Mark Zuckerberg took to Meta's blog to write a long post entitled ["Open Source AI is the Path Forward"](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) It was a good articulation of why Meta was choosing to go down the "open source" (read: open weight) path with AI even when their main rivals were going in a different direction. It was [in the midst](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/) of [a press push](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) he did [around the topic](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/) – a [clear call-t0-arms](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/) to [try to rally](https://spyglass.org/spotify-meta-open-source-ai-dma/) the industry around Llama. What a difference a year makes. As [Eli Tan reports for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/technology/meta-superintelligence-lab-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta’s newly formed [superintelligence lab](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/technology/meta-new-ai-lab-superintelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org) has discussed making a series of changes to the company’s artificial intelligence strategy, in what would amount to a major shake-up at the social media giant. > > Last week, a small group of top members of the lab, including Alexandr Wang, 28, Meta’s new chief A.I. officer, discussed abandoning the company’s most powerful open source A.I. model, called Behemoth, in favor of developing a closed model, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Per Tan's reporting, this isn't a done deal yet and there seems to be a debate going on internally about it. The fact that [Kalley Huang of *The Information* backs up this report](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/meta-discusses-developing-closed-ai-models?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) might suggest that some of those factions may be attempting to use strategic leaks to pressure Meta not to move away from this ethos. Of course, for their part, Meta will spin this regardless of which way they go. The gaslight-y statements from their PR team on the matter already suggest as much: > “Our position on open source AI is unchanged,” a spokesperson for Meta said in a statement. “We plan to continue releasing leading open source models. We haven’t released everything we’ve developed historically, and we expect to continue training a mix of open and closed models going forward.” Ah yes, the old, ["Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen%5FEighty-Four?ref=spyglass.org) approach. Nothing to see here. Nothing at all. Obviously, that's bullshit. If Meta's [new very high profile](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) and [very highly paid](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) new [Superintelligence Lab](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) goes down the closed model path, it will be a massive change in AI strategy from the one Zuckerberg outlined a year ago. And it also, perhaps, would be the right move. A couple weeks back, while thinking through the ramifications of Meta's AI reset, I wrote a post entitled, "[Meta's Open Source AI Mistake](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/)". As I wrote: > All we've heard for [months](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/) and [months](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) from [Zuckerberg](https://spyglass.org/meta-llama-ai-zuckerberg-open-ai/) is how the open sourcing of Llama is what was fueling Meta's AI growth and would ensure they won the market. We kept hearing how it would play out similarly to how it did with the open sourcing of some of their database infrastructure. That the work of the masses, building on Meta's Llama base, would propel their AI to heights that the competition couldn't match and make it the industry standard. > > Again, that has not happened. It doesn't seem fair to blame open source for that – hell, Llama is not even really "open source", but "open weight" as everyone is well aware by now – but it seems clear that it hasn't really helped. At least not in the ways that Zuckerberg and Meta had hoped. > > In fact, it may have hurt in at least one way that Meta clearly failed to anticipate: that other model-makers would be able to distill Llama [in ways that make perhaps better models](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) than Llama itself as [DeepSeek may have done](https://simonwillison.net/2025/jan/20/deepseek-r1/?ref=spyglass.org). The open source strengths that Zuckerberg touted, turned out to perhaps be weaknesses when it came to competing at the highest end of the market. It doesn't mean open source (again, open weight) is bad – it just means Meta's strategy here may have been flawed. And I suspect where they'll net out is the same strategy that Anthropic, Google, and soon OpenAI are doing. That is, keep the cutting-edge models closed and open source older and smaller models more selectively. I went on to compare this strategic mistake to the one Meta – then still called Facebook – [made almost 15 years ago](https://techcrunch.com/2011/01/25/facebook-2011/?ref=spyglass.org) [with HTML5](https://techcrunch.com/2011/02/09/html5-versus-native-apps/?ref=spyglass.org). This is the call that Zuckerberg would go on to say was [his "biggest mistake"](https://techcrunch.com/2012/09/11/mark-zuckerberg-our-biggest-mistake-with-mobile-was-betting-too-much-on-html5/?ref=spyglass.org). As I wrote: > Then, as now, they thought they were getting ahead of an inevitable curve. But the turn never happened. That's not to say that it won't with open source models, it's just that trying to build your own AI business around those while allowing others to do the same as you incur the cost may not be the way to win in the market right now. Meta had thought that others would step in to help with such a heavy lift. And even apparently went around to partners holding out their donation cup. No takers, sadly. Because [why pay for the llama when you get the model for free](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/)? Meanwhile, the stance seemingly hasn't helped them bring in the right talent for the job. After some early promise, Llama 4 is clearly a mess and that's in part because a lot of people who started the project no longer work at Meta.[2](#two) OpenAI has somehow been able to handle [such turnover](https://spyglass.org/openai-non-non-profit/), clearly Meta has not. All eyes remain on Yann LeCun, Meta's face of AI before Meta paid $15B to bring Alexandr Wang [and Nat Friedman](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) on board. As Tan notes: > Any move toward a closed A.I. model would be a philosophical change at Meta as much as a technical one. Meta has won plaudits from developers for open sourcing its A.I. models, and one of its top A.I. executives, Yann LeCun, had said, “The platform that will win will be the open one.” This year, the Chinese A.I. company DeepSeek released an advanced A.I. chatbot thanks [in part to Meta’s open source code](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/technology/meta-deepseek-ai-open-source.html?ref=spyglass.org). LeCun keeps [retweeting posts](https://x.com/ClementDelangue/status/1940902742043898215?ref=spyglass.org) about [open source AI](https://x.com/sdgcounting/status/1942618835888041988?ref=spyglass.org) over on Xitter. While on Meta-owned Threads, he's much more of a company man. ["Big plans"](https://www.threads.com/@yannlecun/post/DMGO%5FV4uxIn?ref=spyglass.org) is his most recent post, quoting Zuckerberg's post about the new "superintelligence" efforts. Zuck doesn't mention open source. **One more thing:** About a year ago, amidst his press flurry around open source AI, [I gave a note of caution](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/): > But if Zuckerberg takes this whole 'open vs. closed' stance too far, he'll seem disingenuous or worse, hypocritical. I'm old enough to remember when this was the approach Google tried to take against Apple in [the earlier days of the Android vs. iPhone wars](https://techcrunch.com/2010/05/21/google-apple-lost/?guccounter=1&ref=spyglass.org). It started out sounding like a "winning" thing to say, but the reality was [far more complicated](https://techcrunch.com/2010/09/09/android-open/?ref=spyglass.org) and [nuanced](https://techcrunch.com/2010/12/26/2011-android/?ref=spyglass.org). > > What happens if, say, Meta has to (or decides to) shift their stance on the openness of Llama down the road? Such things have a funny way of happening over time... Indeed. --- 1 You know, the Meta blog that resides at '[about.fb.com/news](https://about.fb.com/news?ref=spyglass.org)'... 2 Many have taken their open source AI talents to Mistral... ### We're Seemingly Still in the "Throw Money At It" AI Era... URL: https://spyglass.org/clash-of-the-ai-datacenter-titans/ Last updated: 2025-08-19T22:32:41.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_clash_of_the_titans_--ar_43_--v_7_1d4867c2-95a2-4f77-9f3a-d964ba587051_3-1.png) On the surface, two of the biggest recent stories in AI seem unrelated. The first is [Meta’s massive hiring spree](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) to put together their new “Superintelligence” team. The second is xAI releasing Grok 4\. But actually, these two may be very related at the highest level. That is, they showcase that we’re still very much in the “throw money at the problem” part of the AI cycle. This is important because it means that any company with the will and resources can seemingly still get back into the race. Or at least, that’s the hope. A week ago, I would have said we might be beyond that point, which is why [I was skeptical that Meta’s mega deals for talent will work](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/). (To be clear, I’m still fairly skeptical there, but not because they’re too late, but rather because of other intangible elements of building in this space right now – team cohesion, Meta’s own focus, etc). But I’m getting less skeptical on the news about Grok 4\. And specifically, the fact that it seems to perform — and specifically *outperform* – the other cutting edge models on the market right now. If nothing else, this shows that Elon Musk’s bet on [his “Colossus” data center cluster](https://spyglass.org/spending-apples-cash/#:~:text=xAI%20apparently%20just,%5BFortune%5D) may be paying off. Perhaps not literally yet, but certainly in these performance metrics. That’s remarkable because xAI more or less started from zero just a couple years ago. While OpenAI and Google have been in the model-building business for years and years, Elon just… walked in and said, I can do this too. And then, remarkably, did it... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google 'Hackqusition'... URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-windsurf-google/ Last updated: 2025-08-14T19:28:34.000Z In our current M&A environment in the AI space, there are but two types of deals: ['hackquisitions' and 'hackquihires'](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/). At first, they seemed like they were the same deal – that is, [a way to acquire a company without really acquiring it](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) because, of course, the regulatory environment wouldn't allow for such a deal. Or, at the very least, it will likely be held up in review for a long time. With [a 'hackquisition'](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/), it was one company simply hiring some employees from another company and paying a licensing fee to that company for non-exclusive use of their technology, which sometimes may be interesting technology, but is never really the point. The point is to create a way to give compensation back to investors and other shareholders (including, often, employees) to ensure a deal – [sorry, totally not a deal](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/) – gets done. It's all [a bit silly](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/). It's a charade. But it seemingly works. As such deals keep happening. And actually, Meta has redefined such deals recently with [their $14B+ 'hackquisition' of Scale AI](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). That deal, unlike the others, actually *did see* Meta taking a stake in the startup – a sizable one. Albeit 49%, the highest possible number without tripping Meta into being the majority shareholder. Which is obviously also not a coincidence. In fact, Meta learned from the best and originator of the 'hackqusition' model: Microsoft. While [their deal to 'hackquire' Inflection](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) kicked off this type of M&A, it was really their deal to invest in OpenAI itself that in a way was the origination of such deals. In a normal world, Microsoft would have acquired OpenAI long ago, but again, they cannot. So instead they control them in ways that are... well, [increasingly a problem for OpenAI!](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai/) And while they don't technically have an equity ownership stake yet, that's only because they're blocking OpenAI from [converting into a PBC](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) to give them[ such a stake](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) so that they can presumably get both better terms and assurances around the use of the technology that they've largely funded to date. We all know that situation. But it's interesting to think that back when the Sam Altman coup happened in 2023, Satya Nadella and team had offers out to Altman and his team to join Microsoft. Again, this wouldn't have been an acquisition of OpenAI, it would have been hiring a bunch of talent from OpenAI. But such a deal ended up not being needed. Within days, Altman was back in charge of OpenAI and the special relationship between those two companies continued as it had been. But again, Microsoft clearly took the idea from that time to do the Inflection deal a few months later – a deal done in part to [hedge against](https://spyglass.org/microsofts-hedge-against-openai/) the risks with OpenAI that the coup made apparent. And that deal clearly pissed off Altman and team, [starting a snowball of animosity](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) down the hill between the two sides. Complicated! Fun! Anyway, that preamble is mainly just a reminder of how we got here. Because again, now Meta and others are changing the game by extending the old 'hackquisition' model to make some of the other deals look almost like 'hackquihires' rather than true 'hackquisitions'. And they're extending it [to even 'hackquire' VC firms](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) now, it seems! And now we may have yet another new wrinkle... Here's [Hayden Field of *The Verge*](https://www.theverge.com/openai/705999/google-windsurf-ceo-openai?ref=spyglass.org): > OpenAI’s deal to buy Windsurf is off, and Google will instead hire Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan, cofounder Douglas Chen, and some of Windsurf’s R&D employees and bring them onto the Google DeepMind team, Google and Windsurf announced Friday. > > Mohan and the Windsurf employees will focus on agentic coding efforts at Google DeepMind and work largely on Gemini. Google will not have any control over nor a stake in Windsurf, but it will take a non-exclusive license to some of Windsurf’s technology. OpenAI was [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-06/openai-reaches-agreement-to-buy-startup-windsurf-for-3-billion?ref=spyglass.org) to be buying Windsurf, a "vibe coding" startup for $3B back in early May. But the deal never closed. Why? All reports in the past several weeks indicate that Microsoft was using it as a point of leverage over OpenAI in [ongoing negotiations](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/) about their own deal(s) with the company (including, yes, ultimately the ability for OpenAI to become a PBC). Did OpenAI really need their permission to buy another company? Well no, but because of their previous deal, Microsoft technically had rights to any IP OpenAI owns – including, it seems, IP they acquired. OpenAI was trying to get a carve out for that IP, and Microsoft didn't want to grant it. Why? Again, partially, it seems, a point of leverage in other negotiations, but also because Microsoft has their own competing product in the space with GitHub Copilot! [Why would](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163692792/chatgpt-gets-an-ai-coding-agent?ref=spyglass.org) Microsoft want to see OpenAI acquire a company that was trying to eat their own lunch? But as [multiple reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-11/openai-s-3-billion-deal-to-buy-ai-startup-windsurf-falls-apart?ref=spyglass.org) [make clear](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/technology/google-windsurf-openai.html?ref=spyglass.org), Windsurf was insisting on such separation of church and state as it were. They were already [running into](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/the-wwdc-shuffle?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7microsoft-picks-anthropic-to-power-new-github-ai-coding-tools) [issues with Anthropic](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/nintendo-switch-2-eve?ref=spyglass.org) not wanting to give them access to their latest models because they were in the process of selling to OpenAI. The Microsoft bridge was apparently one too far – even if it seems like the *other sides* should care about that particular element more than the Windsurf team since *they were getting paid $3B*! Well, they're not getting paid $3B any longer. With the exclusive negotiating window closed, Google swooped in with a more standard "hackquisition" offer. And really, more of a "hackquihire" to use the newer terminology. They are hiring the Windsurf co-founders and a few other folks on the team [as Miles Kruppa, Natasha Mascarenhas, and Erin Woo report for *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-windsurf-break-acquisition-talks-microsoft-ip-concerns?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org): > Google is paying $2.4 billion for an nonexclusive licensing fee that will pay for Windsurf’s technology and multiple years of compensation for Windsurf staff coming to the company, according to a person with direct knowledge. It will not take a stake in the company, Google said. > > The proceeds will likely result in a return for at least some of the startup’s investors, said one person familiar with the deal. Employees at the company will also get cash from the deal, although it is unclear how much or on what terms, according to a different person. Ah yes, the old "nonexclusive licensing fee". A fee which will somehow also manage to send money to Windsurf employees and investors, of course. That seems particularly important here given the $3B deal that just fell apart. OpenAI's deal was weird in *how standard it seemed to be*. $3B (in either cash or stock or most likely some combination) to buy up all the equity in Windsurf's parent company – thus buying out the shares from employees and investors. An actual acquisition! Google didn't have to match that offer – and didn't – in part because they're not actually buying the company. Just the co-founders and a few others. But given that it's still a competitive market – Meta was apparently also talking to them, [shocking, I know](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) – and given the bad vibes this new deal would have in replacing the old better deal without some sort of nice arrangement for all involved, Google clearly had to pay the "hackquisition"/"hackquihire" price. Again, even though this is really a "hackquihire" to salvage a failed actual acquisition. A new twist! This is all not a great look for OpenAI. Whereas the reports about the ongoing OpenAI/Microsoft negotiations are just that, *reports*, of going-ons behind-the-scenes which they can brush off or quasi-deny, this deal is a very outward-facing sign of Microsoft's level of control in the relationship. OpenAI had a deal to acquire another startup and Microsoft effectively killed it. At the same time, you have to wonder if part of OpenAI isn't okay with the deal being killed. Beyond the aforementioned [issue with Anthropic](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-quiet-build-to-wwdc?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=To%20follow%20up%20on%20the%20item%20from%20a%20couple%20days%20ago%2C%20one%20of%20Anthropic%E2%80%99s%20co%2Dfounder%20admitted%20the%20obvious%3A%20they%E2%80%99re%20not%20enabling%20the%20newest%20models%20for%20Windsurf%20because%20Windsurf%20is%20selling%20to%20their%20main%20rival%2C%20OpenAI.%20Duh.%20%5BTechCrunch%5D), Windsurf's main competitor, Cursor, seems to have most of the momentum in the market right now and [keeps raising money](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-quiet-build-to-wwdc?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20the%20%22vibe%20coding%22%20space%2C%20Windsurf%E2%80%99s%20own%20main%20competitor%2C%20Anysphere%20%28makers%20of%20Cursor%29%20has%20surpassed%20%24500M%20in%20ARR%20%E2%80%94%20making%20it%20the%20fastest%20company%20ever%20to%20do%20so.%20As%20such%2C%20they%E2%80%99re%20now%20valued%20at%20a%20clearly%20deliberate%20%249.9B%20after%20raising%20%24900M.%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) ([or getting offers to raise money](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=I%E2%80%99m%20old%20enough,%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D)) at ever-increasing sums. And [the fact that Thrive Capital is both a key investor](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163328874/vibe-coding-cursor-hits-bn-valuation?ref=spyglass.org) in OpenAI and Cursor seems... interesting, if nothing else. At the same time *to the same time*, one also has to wonder if Windsurf isn't okay with this new deal on some level because Cursor keeps setting new price comps for such startups. That said, it's undoubtedly not great news for the company to be losing their co-founders here, but at least someone internal (their head of business) is stepping up to lead the company going forward, which is still said to be retaining "most of its roughly 250 employees," [per *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-windsurf-break-acquisition-talks-microsoft-ip-concerns?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org). Oh yes, and they're getting paid some percentage of Google's $2.4B for their troubles... 💰 There's been a bit of chatter about this particular aspect of the deal, so a bit more on this [in an update below](#update)... But back to OpenAI, one has to wonder if they're going to have even more M&A trouble going forward. At least until they're able to renegotiate with Microsoft – *if they're able to renegotiate with Microsoft*. Any deal seems like it could be at risk now, and it may just ice a bunch of would-be deals, such as OpenAI trying to be competitive with whatever deal of the moment Meta is trying to do to help them get back into the AI race. Yes, [the io deal](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/) went through, but that's apparently only because Microsoft wasn't worried about competing in future AI hardware (which seems shortsighted perhaps [if the space actually takes off/works](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)?). And so the best of times/worst of times continue for OpenAI. The past couple of weeks have been pretty rough though. This Windsurf deal falling apart (and the key talent going to rival Google). A [delay](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/11/openai-delays-the-release-of-its-open-model-again/?ref=spyglass.org) in the "open" model roll-out. Grok 4 being released and being received well in the market and xAI apparently now [raising at a $200B valuation](https://www.ft.com/content/25aab987-c2a1-4fca-8883-38a617269b68?ref=spyglass.org). Even that io deal had its own [issues](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/24/sam-altman-slams-iyo-lawsuit-after-openai-pulls-blog-post-on-ive-deal.html?ref=spyglass.org) (around IP) before it finally went through. Is Apple really going to [go with Claude](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/) over ChatGPT to lobotomize Siri?! [Meta is poaching their talent](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) – I won't say "left and right" but [certainly](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) "left and center" at this point. ([As is former CTO Mira Murati](https://www.businessinsider.com/muratis-new-ai-startup-salary-technical-talent-2025-6?ref=spyglass.org) armed with [a new $10B valuation](https://www.ft.com/content/9edc67e6-96a9-4d2b-820d-57bc1279e358?ref=spyglass.org).) Oh yes, and the company still doesn't have their path to their for-profit dreams with the PBC status still up in the air and [veiled threats](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/) seemingly being thrown around between OpenAI and Microsoft. It's... a lot. Even for ["not a normal company"](https://spyglass.org/openai-succession/). It's enough to make you wonder if it's perhaps time to become more of a normal company... --- **Update July 13, 2025**: On the reports about the potential pay-outs (or not) for the Windsurf employees *not* joining Google... [Jordi Hayes of *TBPN* writes on Xitter](https://x.com/jordihays/status/1944200891944644997?ref=spyglass.org): > That brings us to the hundreds of employees that aren’t going to Google. From what I’ve heard they are all getting screwed regardless of their vesting status. Their consolation prize is that they now own 100% of the original company. > > Windsurf’s leadership is making the argument that this is a win for those that aren’t joining Google. Their claim is that Windsurf still has a meaningful amount of revenue and a solid balance sheet. But Windsurf will now be facing intense competition from not only its former founders and engineers who are now at Google, but every other company in code gen that they were already completing with / losing to (Cursor, Anthropic, etc). Given that Google now has a license to the core technology, it is safe to assume that the Windsurf will struggle and on a longer time horizon will be a zero. The first part would seem to contradict [*The Information* report](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-windsurf-break-acquisition-talks-microsoft-ip-concerns?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) which states: > The deal will generate a return for at least some of the startup’s investors, according to a person familiar with the deal. Employees with vested shares will receive cash, but those without vested equity—many of whom joined in the past year—will not receive a payout, according to a person who spoke to leadership at Windsurf. But ultimately, I'm not sure how much the distinction here matters given how many employees seemingly joined Windsurf recently and clearly were unvested, likely with a one-year cliff. In a "normal" acquisition, a company would likely accelerate at least some level of vesting to reward everyone in a liquidation event (depending on the "triggers"). *But this isn't a liquidation event*, of course. And actually, if the company were to do this it might signal to regulators that this was a de-facto acquisition, so you can see why they might *not* want to do that. At the same time, you can see such a move would leave a bad taste in many mouths. They were signing up for something and sort of got baited and switched. Management will say the mission continues but, well, it continues without those who set the mission. Who just earned millions... --- **Update July 14, 2025**: And now it seems that *yet another party*, Cognition AI, has stepped in to acquire the remainder of the Windsurf team *not* going to Google... Wild. Of note from [the story by Mike Isaac of *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/technology/cognition-ai-windsurf.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Over the weekend, Windsurf’s founders, who said they would leave the company as part of Google’s investment, were criticized after it appeared some of their employees would not see similar paydays as colleagues who were leaving to join Google. > > Cognition, which offers an A.I. coding assistant called Devin to help software developers create programs, said its deal would allow all Windsurf employees to participate in financial gain, according to a letter sent to Windsurf employees. Windsurf employees with equity will receive an “accelerated vesting” schedule, which means their stock can be cashed in earlier than anticipated, according to the letter. Those who do not have stock in the company will also be given vested shares based on their time working at the company. > > After the Google deal was announced, Windsurf executives worked over the weekend to structure a sale to Cognition, two people familiar with the discussions said. Windsurf had multiple suitors, the people said, but Cognition offered the strongest terms and a deal that would provide bigger benefits to all employees. There you go. A nice move and gesture by Cognition. Though I'm going to guess this deal was not for $2.4B! --- **Update July 15, 2025**: [Natasha Mascarenhas and Valida Pau of *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/windsurf-whiplash-inside-96-hours-frantic-ai-dealmaking?utm%5Fcampaign=Editorial&utm%5Fcontent=Exclusive&utm%5Fmedium=organic%5Fsocial&utm%5Fsource=twitter&rc=lsmcir) now have a longer tick-tock of how the chaotic 96 hours went down to get the deals done. Yes, the lack of stock acceleration seemed to be a key problem. Yes, Meta was in the mix at one point. ### Escalated, the AI Browser Wars Have – Quickly URL: https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/ Last updated: 2025-08-13T18:57:47.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_a_war_between_web_browsers_cartoon_--ar_43_--v_7_379532db-55ed-4ac8-a27e-7639745058b4_3-3.png) Just two weeks after I wrote a post entitled ["Begun, the AI Browser Wars Have"](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/), outlining some thoughts on The Browser Company's new entrant [Dia](https://www.diabrowser.com/invite/J69KDU?ref=spyglass.org) and where the general space is likely heading, two more key players seem poised to emerge. Yesterday, Perplexity formally unveiled their [Comet](https://comet.perplexity.ai/?ref=spyglass.org) browser. And while it's still being slowly rolled out to their waitlist, anyone who wants to pay can play with it now. The cost? Signing up for Perplexity's 'Max' plan, which is $200/month. I'm certainly tempted given my use of Dia over these past many weeks, but I'll continue playing Perplexity's waitlist game for now. And so here's an overview of some of Comet's features [from Maxwell Zeff at *TechCrunch*](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/09/perplexity-launches-comet-an-ai-powered-web-browser/?ref=spyglass.org): > Comet’s headline feature is Perplexity’s AI search engine, which is pre-installed and set as the default, putting the company’s core product — AI generated summaries of search results — front and center. > > Users can also access Comet Assistant, a new AI agent from Perplexity that lives in the web browser and aims to automate routine tasks. Perplexity says the assistant can summarize emails and calendar events, manage tabs, and navigate webpages on behalf of users. Users can access Comet Assistant by opening a sidecar on any webpage, which lets the AI agent see what’s on the webpage and answer questions about it. It's interesting that Dia and Comet have different starting points in this "AI Browser" race, but it also makes sense. Comet is ultimately Perplexity's way to ensure their other core products get into consumers hands. Dia is The Browser Company's core product. Granted, the chatbot built into Dia is essentially a product too – and one, I suspect, you'll have to pay for in order to get full access to features and functionality at some point – but they're also happy to have you fall back to Google Search if that's what you want to do. Comet? Not so much. As Perplexity co-founder and CEO [Aravind Srinivas makes abundantly clear on Xitter](https://x.com/AravSrinivas?ref=spyglass.org), their aim is to [go squarely after](https://spyglass.org/perplexity-comet-ai-web-browser/) Google on all fronts. Still, beyond the web search element, in usage, Dia and Comet sound similar: > My favorite way to use Comet Assistant, so far, is loading it in the sidecar while I’m browsing the web. Perplexity’s on-browser AI agent can automatically see what I’m looking at, so I can simply ask it questions without needing to open a new window or copy and paste text or links. It’s right there, and it always has the context for what I’m looking at. > > Comet Assistant was able to answer questions about posts on social media, YouTube videos, and even sentences I just wrote in a Google Doc. I imagine this will streamline workflows for millions of people that are sending screenshots, files, and links to ChatGPT all day. Where they really start to diverge is the "agentic" work that Comet aims to do. Presumably, Dia wants to get there as well, but Comet is doing it from day one – or at least trying to. It sounds a bit rough at the moment: > But Comet Assistant fails at more complicated tasks. For example, I tried asking it to help me find a long-term parking spot at San Francisco’s airport for an upcoming trip, specifically places with good reviews that cost less than $15 a day. > > The assistant offered up several options that seemed to fit the criteria, so I asked it to book me a spot at one of the locations for the dates I’d be away. The agent navigated the parking lot’s website for me, entered in dates, and even some of my information, then asked me to review what it did and check-out. > > Turns out, Comet Assistant hallucinated and entered completely wrong dates, later telling me that the dates I wanted were booked, but still wanted to have me complete the check-out anyways. I had to tell the AI agent that the dates were non-negotiable, and asked it to find another location. It ran into the same problem again. This is also likely to be a big part of OpenAI's push into the browser space. Back in January, upon playing around with 'Operator', ChatGPT's first agentic product, I wrote a piece with the following headline: "[OpenAI's 'Operator' Shows Why They'll Build a Web Browser](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/)". It was obvious – OpenAI was using a custom-built version of Chrome to do their agentic workflows in the cloud. Clearly, they were going to build their own browser to do this eventually. And here we are. [As Kenrick Cai, Krystal Hu and Anna Tong report for *Reuters*](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openai-release-web-browser-challenge-google-chrome-2025-07-09/?ref=spyglass.org): > OpenAI is close to releasing an AI-powered web browser that will challenge Alphabet's market-dominating Google Chrome, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters. > > The browser is slated to launch in the coming weeks, three of the people said, and aims to use artificial intelligence to fundamentally change how consumers browse the web. It will give OpenAI more direct access to a cornerstone of Google's success: user data. Yes, and: > A web browser would allow OpenAI to directly integrate its AI agent products such as [Operator](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-unveils-tool-automate-web-tasks-ai-agents-take-center-stage-2025-01-23/?ref=spyglass.org) into the browsing experience, enabling the browser to carry out tasks on behalf of the user, the people said. > > The browser's access to a user’s web activity would make it the ideal platform for AI "agents" that can take actions on their behalf, like booking reservations or filling out forms, directly within the websites they use. This follows [a report from last year in *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-considers-taking-on-google-with-browser?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) that OpenAI was considering going after this market and had made some key hires from, where else, Google to go after it – specifically people who help build Chrome. With that in mind: > OpenAI's browser is built atop Chromium, Google's own open-source browser code, two of the sources said. Chromium is the source code for Google Chrome, as well as many competing browsers including Microsoft's Edge and Opera. Naturally, Dia and Comet are built on top of Chromium as well. Fascinating to think that Google's open source work here could be their downfall in this market... And while the DoJ would like Google to have to [sell off Chrome](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/), that's not going to happen – [certainly not to OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/) – in part because AI is [creating a new lane here](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/). Both in Search and in web browsing. Google seems confident enough that they're keeping Chrome to go so far as to [bake Gemini right into their browser too](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/). It's risky given the regulatory heat on them, but also what choice do they have? Should they have to just sit back and be disrupted? Instead, if Chrome is disrupted it will be because these newer AI browsers are simply better and more useful than Chrome. Again, while being built on top of Chromium. [Begun, the AI Browser Wars HaveDia ushers in a new day for the web browser…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-21.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/b04142c9c497f827215ce0576354f7fac5cb5ab8-2400x1260-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/) [Can the Web Browser Be the Disruptor Yet Again?This time \*against\* Google with AI (and perhaps Microsoft, again)…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-18.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_using_a_web_browser_--ar_169_--profile_6kai7g7__2a9b41ab-ceb9-49bf-b81d-9ecd03980425_3-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-web-browser/) [Perplexity Aims to Reignite the Browser Wars with AI‘Comet’ sounds like the right idea with some celestial competition![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-19.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_many_comets_streaking_across_the_sky_cartoon_--ar_21_--_2ea63850-f494-4aff-9261-47b0c273693e_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/perplexity-comet-ai-web-browser/) [Forget the Fate of Chrome, Focus on the Fate of the BrowserIn debating what undoubtedly won’t happen, we’re looking past some key things that are -- and might…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-20.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-11-22-11.57.12---A-surreal-illustration-of-the-Google-Chrome-logo-being-squeezed--with-the-iconic-multicolored-sphere--red--green--yellow--and-blue--appearing-slightly-3-13.webp)](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) [OpenAI’s ‘Operator’ Shows Why They’ll Build a Web BrowserTo me, the most interesting aspect of OpenAI’s new ‘Operator’ product – their first real agent – is not what it can do, but how it does it. Unlike the early iterations of similar products from Anthropic and Google, ‘Operator’ doesn’t take over your computer, it outsources the work you want to![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-22.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_httpss.mj.runUppJx1mo6_w_a_robot_using_a_computer_--ar__9fec8e72-50d6-4d70-90ae-fb8366bc5c57_1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/) ### Apple is Ripe URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-is-ripe/ Last updated: 2026-04-21T11:47:53.000Z The last time Apple had a COO transition, it was a big deal. In 2015, Tim Cook elevated Jeff Williams to the role, which had been vacant since 2011, when Cook himself vacated it to become CEO following Steve Jobs resignation over his health concerns. With Williams appointment, it seemed as if Cook had found his own Tim Cook. Not only someone who was able to steward Apple's ever-increasingly-complex supply chain, but also make many more of Apple's trains run on time. And, presumably, someone who could step in for Cook if, as was sadly the case with Jobs, he was no longer able to perform his CEO duties. This made Williams the heir-apparent to Cook. The only problem there was that they were quite close in age, with Williams just a few years younger. So in any normal retirement situation for Cook, Williams was likely to be around that age as well.[1](#one) As it turns out, Williams, approaching a decade in the COO role, [is now retiring *before* Cook](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/07/apple-announces-chief-operating-officer-transition/?ref=spyglass.org). Of course, as [the reporting of Mark Gurman](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/apple-s-next-ceo-list-of-aapl-insiders-who-could-succeed-tim-cook?ref=spyglass.org) seemingly made clear last year, with the two men creeping up in age, Apple had started to [shift their attention elsewhere](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/) when it came to transitions of power. (More on that below.) And so without a clear path to CEO and after one hell of a good run, now feels like as good of a time as any for Williams to step back. But it's still a big deal right? Apple's number two stepping down! Internally, sure. But externally, not really. Before I get to that, a few quick thoughts I jotted down upon seeing the news: 1. Jeff Williams is almost *3 years younger* than Tim Cook. 2. Sabih Khan, who is replacing Williams as COO, is just 3 years younger than Williams. 3. And Khan has actually been at Apple *3 years longer* than Williams (30 years versus 27 years). 4. Williams joined Apple in 1998 (from IBM), the year after Steve Jobs returned. The same year Cook joined (from Compaq, though he had also been at IBM for a dozen years before that). 5. Khan joined Apple in 1995, which was obviously *before* Jobs returned. 6. The only members of the leadership team that have been at Apple longer are: 1. Eddy Cue (1989) 2. Deirdre O’Brien (1988) 3. Greg Joswiak (1986 – yes, really, next year will mark his 40th year at Apple – he joined *the year after Jobs was* *forced out*!) 7. Khan, as SVP of Operations already reported to Cook and not Williams, so no change there. The most interesting element of this announcement may be the fact that Williams is handing over the COO reigns to Khan immediately, but is staying on in an unnamed role (still reporting to Cook) through the end of the year to continue to oversee the design team and Apple Watch. This is clearly an important enough bit of information that it's right there in the first paragraph.[2](#two) As anyone who has watched an Apple keynote in the past few years will know, Apple Watch was Williams' baby. To the point where I'm sort of surprised he's not staying on as an "Apple Fellow" to continue to oversee just that product, just as Phil Schiller has been doing in that role with the App Store for years. Apple is famous for their step-back-but-not-fully-retiring roles – most recently with former CFO Luca Maestri. Williams real retirement, seemingly, will happen far faster. At the same time, Apple clearly doesn't want to hand Design and Apple Watch/Health to Khan. Presumably, such things are just not his strong suit. [Mark Gurman got some great quotes for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/apple-operating-chief-jeff-williams-to-pass-role-to-lieutenant?ref=spyglass.org) from former Apple executives and employees on the retirement announcement that sheds some light on this: > “Sabih is very much cut from the Tim Cook cloth,” said Matthew Moore, a former Apple operations engineer. “Jeff was a little more product-minded; Sabih is just a really brilliant operator and methodical in the same way that Tim would operate.” > > Moore added that Khan has already been running Apple’s operations group and that the team “won’t miss a beat.” The concerns will be in the other areas that Williams currently oversees, he said. As [Gurman notes](https://x.com/markgurman/status/1942744294655455497?ref=spyglass.org), much of the functional work for Apple Watch has already been quietly divvied up between John Ternus (more on him in a minute) for hardware and Craig Federighi for software (just like pretty much every other product line). It still matters quite a bit – [to Tim Cook, no less](https://spyglass.org/tim-cooks-clock/) – but it's seemingly in good hands. Design is a far trickier topic. Once Williams actually retires to start 2026, that team will transition to noted design expert Tim Cook. I kid, I kid. But really, it's weird. But it also feels like they don't really have another option here. Though I might note that if Ternus really is in line to be the next CEO now – something that obviously seems more likely than ever with this news – perhaps it would be good to get him that experience? Perhaps especially while Williams is still there to oversee that transition? Then again, Ternus clearly already has a lot on his plate. And that might be too explicit a signal that both he's next and that he's next *soon*. If Cook isn't ready to retire himself in the next couple of years – I'm working under the assumption that he wants to get at least one more big hardware product out the door, [perhaps the "smart glasses"](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/), ensure the [tariff/China situation](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/) is under control, and fix [the AI mess](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) before he hands over his own duties – perhaps they make that move down the road a bit. Or maybe, just maybe, they actually bring in a C-suite executive to oversee design once again? It's sort of wild that the company perhaps most synonymous with design hasn't had one since Jony Ive left Apple six years ago (yes, there was Evans Hankey post-Ive, but she was never elevated to SVP level before she left – to eventually [join Ive, of course](https://spyglass.org/openai-io-altman-ive/)). As [John Gruber writes on the news today](https://daringfireball.net/2025/07/jeff%5Fwilliams%5Fis%5Fretiring%5Fas%5Fcoo?ref=spyglass.org): > I’ve long found it curious, if not downright dubious, that Apple’s design leaders have reported to Williams ever since it was announced in 2019 ([the very same day](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/06/jony-ive-to-form-independent-design-company-with-apple-as-client/?ref=spyglass.org) that [Khan was promoted to SVP](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/06/apple-names-sabih-khan-senior-vice-president-of-operations/?ref=spyglass.org) of operations) that Jony Ive would be stepping down as chief design officer and leaving Apple to found the (as-yet-unnamed) design firm LoveFrom. Williams had no background in design at all. Apple’s design teams reporting to an operations executive makes no more sense than it would for Apple’s operations teams to report to, say, Alan Dye. Well, maybe it made a little more sense than that—having design report to Williams sort of felt like a way to give Williams experience across the breadth of the company in the case that he ever needed to step in to replace Cook as CEO, either temporarily or permanently, as Cook was asked to for Jobs. > > But when that was announced in 2019, I expected it to be temporary, while Apple took its time to properly identify a new senior design leader. Someone with, you know, design leadership experience, and strong opinions about and deep knowledge of the craft of design. That was six years ago, and Apple has seemingly made not one move toward naming a new chief design officer or (the more likely title) SVP of design. It seems like time for that now. It's certainly possible that Apple is going to try to spend these next five months finding that design executive. It's also possible that they promote Dye to such a role – he did have one of the most prominent slots at the WWDC keynote this year [thanks to "Liquid Glass"](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) – though as Gruber notes, in hindsight, it may have been a mistake to have one person overseeing hardware and software design – something that only happened because Ive stepped in on the software side after Scott Forstall was forced out in 2012\. And Dye is firmly on the software (HI) side.[3](#three) Anyway, regardless of what happens with design, this overall shift doesn't change much of anything at Apple in the immediate term. Khan is not some fresh face about to shake things up – again, *he's been at the company longer than Tim Cook has*! And while that's probably a good thing in operations, with each passing week, Apple is [seemingly](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) a company [in need of a good shake](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). [I've long been of the mind](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/) that Apple now feels like a company [increasingly stuck in the past](https://spyglass.org/openai-product-launches/). From their App Store policies on down, they're seemingly [operating like it's 2010](https://500ish.com/the-app-store-commandments-a867a0409dff?ref=spyglass.org), not 2025\. And if you just look at [the leadership page](https://www.apple.com/leadership/?ref=spyglass.org), the reason why should be pretty clear: of the 12 listed execs, only Katherine Adams (Apple's GC), John Giannandrea (SVP of AI and ML – [and not in the best position](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) [internally at the moment](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/), [to say the least](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/)), and newly appointed CFO Kevan Parekh joined the company *after* the Steve Jobs-era.[4](#four) Meanwhile, Apple's Board – which feels awfully small at just 8 directors (one of whom is Cook) for a company this size, scope, and scale – has an average age of 68 years old (which Cook brings down as a youthful 64 year old). If you truly believe we're entering the Age of AI, this feels like it could be a problem. ([Ya think?](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/)) But honestly, even if you aren't a true believer in AI, there are [myriad problems across the board](https://spyglass.org/apples-no-good-very-bad-week/) as Apple feels increasingly [out of touch](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/). So again, when you hear the news of a COO shift at a major company, your mind may naturally go towards it being a big shake-up. But that's clearly not the case here. This is almost the opposite: meet the new boss, same as the old boss. That's good for Apple's operations, but I'm not sure how good that is for Apple. **One more thing:** all that said, the retirements and/or whispers of retirements have been ramping as of late – as you might expect for such a long-tenured group of people, many of whom are now into their 60s. To that end, Tony Blevins – aka ["The Blevinator"](https://apple.fandom.com/wiki/Tony%5FBlevins?ref=spyglass.org) – might have the key quote and insight to *Bloomberg*: > "Jeff’s importance and contributions to Apple have been enormous, although perhaps not always obvious to the general public. As a shareholder, I am saddened. Time takes its toll, and it’s almost as if the band is dissolving. Jeff will be sorely missed." During his time as COO, Williams saw Apple become the first company to hit a $1T market cap (2018), a $2T market cap (2020),[5](#five) and a $3T market cap (2023). [In an interesting bit of timing](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1942951611757977836?ref=spyglass.org), today saw the first company hit a $4T market cap. But it wasn't Apple. It was NVIDIA. Apple's market cap today? $3.1T. [The times](https://spyglass.org/nvidia-3-trillion/), [they are...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90WD%5Fats6eE&ref=spyglass.org) --- **Update April 21, 2026**: Tim Cook has now announced his transition from CEO to Board Chair in September 2026\. John Ternus will be the new CEO of Apple. [A Cook’s TourTim Cook steps down as CEO of Apple as John Ternus steps up…![](https://static.ghost.org/v5.0.0/images/link-icon.svg)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/size/w1200/2026/04/ChatGPT-Image-Apr-21--2026--10_29_52-AM.png)](https://spyglass.org/tim-cook-steps-down-as-ceo-of-apple/) --- ****Previously, on Spyglass...** ****(**[****Sign Up**](#/portal/signup) **|** [****Upgrade to The Inner Ring**](#/portal/account/plans)****)** [iPadOS 26 Turns the iPad Into a Sort of ‘Mac Jr.’It’s not bad, but it’s also not really for me. Maybe that’s the point.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-10.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPadOS-26-WWDC_a.jpg.webp)](https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/) [Apple’s Formula for F1The movie is good, will the actual rights to the sport be for Apple?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-11.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/rev-1-APEX_Feature_SG_44626rcV1_High_Res_JPEG.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) [Taking a Bite Out of the Latest Box Office “Records”With ‘Jurassic Park 7’ and ‘F1’, the goalposts keep shifting as the reporting around recent box office numbers remains ridiculous…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-13.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2583_TP_00061-H-2025-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) [Trump’s New Plan for a US-Made iPhone: Something, Something AIA new idea for Tim Cook to get the administration off his back…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-14.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_iphone_with_an_american_flag_--ar_43_--v_7_35b392d1-ef3b-41ae-84f1-afc85bdb9215_0-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/american-iphone/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-12.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) --- 1 Sort of wild to see [Bob Mansfield](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob%5FMansfield?ref=spyglass.org), himself a former SVP long-since retired from Apple, commenting on the record to *Bloomberg* with, "Clearly he wasn’t destined to be the Tim Cook replacement. He’s about the same age as Tim, so that wouldn’t make much sense. The operations team at Apple is really going to miss Jeff." 2 Though, humorously, apparently not important enough to run a spell check before publishing the press release, as both [Matter](https://getmatter.com/?ref=spyglass.org) (my read-it-later service) and [Gruber](https://daringfireball.net/2025/07/jeff%5Fwilliams%5Fis%5Fretiring%5Fas%5Fcoo?ref=spyglass.org) capture the mention of Apple's "Heath" initiative (They have since corrected the typo.) 3 Surely there's a reason that [Richard Howarth](https://www.t3.com/features/who-is-richard-howarth-how-apple-s-badass-iphone-designer-flew-under-everyone-s-radar?ref=spyglass.org), whom Ive recruited to Apple in 1996 and [has been there since](https://www.wallpaper.com/tech/apple-vision-pro-review?ref=spyglass.org), isn't in such a position? [This *Fast Company* excerpt from Tripp Mickle's book from 2022](https://www.fastcompany.com/90741719/inside-the-dissolution-of-apples-legacy-design-team?ref=spyglass.org) seemingly holds the answers... tl;dr: he tried, but was clearly a better contributor than manager. 4 And Parekh joined just about 18 months after Jobs passed away. 5 Okay, technically the first company to $2T was Aramco, right after their IPO pop in late 2019, but Apple was the first US company. ### Apple's Formula for F1 URL: https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/ Last updated: 2025-08-12T08:17:18.000Z First a quick word. I finally saw *F1* last night. As god – or at least, [Christopher Nolan](https://500ish.com/rage-rage-against-the-dying-of-cinema-f4098d75be41?ref=spyglass.org) – intended, on an IMAX screen. It was quite literally spectacular. As everyone is undoubtedly well aware by now, the movie itself is sort of a throwback to the sports/action movies you might see in the 1980s or 1990s. Yes, yes, *Top Gun* and *Days of Thunder*, but also the plot has shades of *Major League* of all things. Anyway, it's good fun. Definitely worth seeing on a big screen and yes, [the biggest screen possible](https://spyglass.org/imax/). With all due respect to *Killers of the Flower Moon*, which was obviously well made but sort of tedious to watch and certainly far from enjoyable for most of it, this is [by far the most watchable](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) movie that Apple has made to date. It's good without any caveats needed. I feel the need to say that because I know some people think I'm ragging on Apple too much for the movie. But that has nothing to do with the movie itself – which [I suspected and predicted](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) would be good from the moment I first saw the trailer – but because of how much it cost Apple to make. [It just feels like we're grading on some weird curve](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) with Apple as a studio both because all of their movies have [flopped to date](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/). and because they don't technically *need* to make money on their movies for the company overall to perform well financially. In fact, it's hard to imagine that even a massive blockbuster would move Apple's financial needle all that much. Certainly not the top line. Apple is simply [too big of a company](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/) to care about this business from a fiscal perspective. That's just the reality of the situation. Luckily for us, [they *do* seem to care](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) about it for other reasons. Whether it's the "intersection of technology and the liberal arts" [Steve Jobs mantra](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166065880/tim-cook-reveals-apples-vision-for-movies-and-tv?ref=spyglass.org) or its the halo effects that Hollywood can bring to their products – their *actual* products (Brad Pitt seems to have AirPods Pro glued on to his ears from scene one forward, which is sort of humorous since part of the plot is also that he's constantly broke and filing for bankruptcy – I might suggest he finds some cheaper headphones?). It's a *good thing* that Apple is in this business, spending top dollar when it results in top quality movies, as it did here. Having said all that, it's still [worth pointing out](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) that Apple is very unlikely to make money on *F1* – at least not at the box office. The movie was simply too expensive to produce and [certainly to market](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/). And that matters because if the company ever were to hit tough times, such lavish spending would be the first thing on the chopping block – I mean, [it already has](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-minus/) [been](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) [in ways](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) – and certainly if it's not profitable spending. Which it's not. It's a top line "hit" movie but it's very unlikely to be a bottom line one. But again, there are other reasons to do *F1*. [As Samuel Agini and Michael Acton report today for *The Financial Times*](https://www.ft.com/content/ef6bbb12-1ef5-4fc7-bff5-77d000c36bff?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple is in talks to acquire the US rights to screen Formula 1 as the tech group chases the success of its hit movie based on the race car series and delves further into showing live sport. > > The iPhone maker is challenging Disney’s ESPN — Formula 1’s current American broadcaster — when the broadcast contract becomes available next year, according to two people familiar with the discussions. > > The interest comes as F1 starring Brad Pitt becomes the company’s first big box office success since moving into the business of making original content for its Apple TV+ streaming service. To beat the dead engine: it depends on how we want to define both "big" and "success" here. But this is certainly the perception now, which is good for Apple. Of course, the perceived success of a movie is not reason enough for Apple to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on expensive sports rights, so let's not pretend they're only doing this because the movie is a "hit". I can say this confidently because I predicted they would be a bidder here, six months ago, well before the movie was released. [As I wrote back then](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/) (on the news that *Netflix* was weighing bidding on the F1 rights): > **One more thing:** Apple remains [a wildcard](https://mgs.blog/the-f1-trifecta-daefba46785?ref=spyglass.org) given their own sports ambitions. And the fact that their biggest swing yet for Apple TV+, [the Brad Pitt-starring, Joseph Kosinski-directed F1 movie](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/), is coming this summer. Then again, they seemingly like deals such as the one they have with MLS [for worldwide rights](https://500ish.com/apples-messi-strategy-48bd95fe006?ref=spyglass.org). Per this report, F1 would prefer to spread such rights out and Sky Sports in the UK already has a much longer deal with F1, so worldwide is likely out of the picture. Still, it [would be cool](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/) to see an F1 race [in 'Immersive Video'](https://spyglass.org/apple-television-pro/). [And I'd bet that Eddy Cue agrees](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/) (and [don't forget](https://mgs.blog/cold-takes-apple-car-edition-f84709784eef?ref=spyglass.org))... This F1 deal would be an outlier for Apple because other entities hold the rights around the world and because F1 itself has a streaming service for the true die-hards of the sport. And yes, Apple's own movie may have just made those rights more expensive – back to the Agini and Acton report: > The race car series makes in the region of $85mn a year from its existing broadcast partner ESPN. F1 also streams live races on its own streaming service in the US, charging fans directly. > > Analysts at Citi have previously estimated that F1’s next US broadcast deal could be worth $121mn a year, although that was before the release of the *F1* film. Its total global media rights revenue grew almost 8 per cent to about $1.1bn in 2024. ESPN actually had an exclusive window to renew the rights but let them lapse. This led to the reports that Netflix might swoop in given their *Drive to Survive* show which has clearly bolstered the popularity of the sport. It was always a bit weird that different entities owned the streaming rights to the races, the show, and the movie. Now Apple is perhaps trying to consolidate two of those. The problem may actually be on the other side: [Apple TV+'s audience remains tiny](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) compared to the other streaming services – and certainly compared to what ESPN can offer on cable. Would F1 be okay signing up for far smaller reach potential? Again, they already have their own, more niche, streaming service. The NFL and other sports like to [spread the rights around](https://spyglass.org/netflix-football-league/) to ensure they can maximize both money and reach, so that's seemingly working against Apple here. But the relationship thanks to the making of the movie clearly helps them here. Especially if, as feels inevitable now, we're going to get a sequel – please, please call it '*F1 2*' – as does a certain Apple executive who negotiates such rights [being on the board of Ferrari](https://spyglass.org/ferrari-apple-car/)... And Apple can offer other things beyond pure reach, including [potentially with Vision Pro](https://500ish.com/apples-messi-strategy-48bd95fe006?ref=spyglass.org), just as they've done with MLS ([and should be doing a lot more of, far faster](https://spyglass.org/apple-vision-problem/)), and other [new technology tie-ins](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/with-friends-like-these?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Speaking%20of%20F1%2C%20let%20me%20be%20the%20last%20person%20in%20the%20world%20to%20tell%20you%20to%20watch%20the%20special%20%22haptic%22%20trailer%20that%20Apple%20made.%20You%20have%20to%20view%20it%20on%20the%20iPhone%20for%20it%20to%20work%2C%20but%20it%E2%80%99s%20fairly%20amazing.%20%5BApple%5D). As I wrote [a couple months ago](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163328874/laps-is-a-lifetime?ref=spyglass.org) after a new *F1* trailer hit: > [The new trailer for F1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-MDGqexqjQ&ref=spyglass.org) — aka, the movie that will [make or break](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) Apple’s feature film ambitions after some [comically bad decisions](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) — [continues to look great](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/). The exact type of movie that demands you see it in a theater. [Ideally, an IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/). And it should cement [Joseph Kosinski](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph%5FKosinski?ref=spyglass.org) as the king of big budget action movies in Hollywood. [Still weird that Apple isn’t pushing harder](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/) for the actual F1 rights in light of this? Weird. --- **Update July 11, 2025**: [Peter Kafka of *Business Insider* reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-f1-streaming-bidding-rights-espn-movie-2025-7?ref=spyglass.org) that Apple has indeed made a bid for the F1 rights and that Disney/ESPN isn't going to match it. So that will leave Eddy Cue and team the winners of this particular race and rights. [Dylan Byers of *Puck* confirms](https://puck.news/apple-is-offering-150-million-to-stream-f1/?ref=spyglass.org) that the price offered was $150M a year – well above the $85M to $90M that ESPN is currently paying for the rights, but also at the bottom of the $150M to $200M F1 was reportedly seeking. No one else seemed willing to go even that high. And so it's revenue over reach here. --- 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [Apple’s Pitt StopThe drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-8.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f1-movie_review_1750832557353_1750832562273-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) [Apple Finally Has a Hit Movie, But at What Cost?I mean that both literally and figuratively as ‘F1’ was beyond expensive to make and beyond in-your-face to market![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-7.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/CEX6XFSWNZLNFHDIVMV3YJEEFQ-4.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) [Taking a Bite Out of the Latest Box Office “Records”With ‘Jurassic Park 7’ and ‘F1’, the goalposts keep shifting as the reporting around recent box office numbers remains ridiculous…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-9.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/2583_TP_00061-H-2025-3.webp)](https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/) ### iPadOS 26 Turns the iPad Into a Sort of 'Mac Jr.' URL: https://spyglass.org/mac-jr/ Last updated: 2025-08-10T13:25:32.000Z Okay, we’re three (developer) betas in now. The public beta is undoubtedly coming very soon. I feel like I have a good enough sense of iPadOS 26 at this point, and where I think the final builds will end up, to say a few words about it. Namely, the new features that [make the iPad operate more like a Mac](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/). To that end, my key takeaway and thought is sort of a funny one: my god, Apple has made a Mac Jr. That sounds derisive. And it sort of is! I don’t hate the experience by any means, but it seems sort of funny what Apple has done to iPadOS to avoid [letting the iPad boot macOS](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/). It’s now this pretty weird hybrid operating system that feels like it exists between iOS and macOS. It’s still a bit more iOS than macOS, but it’s pretty close to the halfway point with iPadOS 26... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Trump's New Plan for a US-Made iPhone: Something, Something AI URL: https://spyglass.org/american-iphone/ Last updated: 2025-07-08T08:33:47.000Z [Trump advisor Navarro rips Apple’s Tim Cook, saying he’s not moving production out of China fast enoughPresident Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Apple to make more of its products in the U.S.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-29.ico)CNBCAnnie Palmer![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/108152134-1748547389241-gettyimages-2216993554-AFP_48KP3Z4.jpeg)](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/trump-navarro-apple-tim-cook-china.html?ref=spyglass.org) Let's check in on how things are going with Apple and the Trump administration: > White House trade advisor [Peter Navarro](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/peter-navarro-denies-tensions-with-elon-musk-after-musk-calls-him-a-moron.html?ref=spyglass.org) criticized [Apple](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL/?ref=spyglass.org) CEO Tim Cook on Monday over the company’s response to pressure from the Trump administration to make more of its products outside China. > > “Going back to the first Trump term, Tim Cook has continually asked for more time in order to move his factories out of China,” Navarro said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “I mean it’s the longest-running soap opera in Silicon Valley.” So not good then. On one hand, it's sort of wild that the administration has zeroed in on Apple here given not only all of Cook's legwork over many years now to get into the President's good graces, but also because the entire idea of manufacturing the iPhone in the US is just pure crazytown fantasy. Even if [it were possible](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/stacked?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7the-us-iphone-made-in-india) for Apple move [such manufacturing](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/peacocking-performative-chats?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7apple-still-needs-china-at-the-cutting-edge), it would take *years* to get all the pieces [up and running](https://spyglass.org/trump-throws-apple-under-the-tariff-bus/). And it would all-but destroy Apple's business as we know it today because it would destroy the economics of their most-important device. On the other hand, the iPhone is not only Apple's most-important device, it's arguably the pinnacle of technology devices and it is the product of an American company, so *of course* Trump's team is [going to focus on it](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/) given [the](https://spyglass.org/trump-tariffs-deal/) [agenda here](https://spyglass.org/trump-tariff-yips/). Cook clearly thought he could [win the day](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/), and the argument, by making rational points about [the realities](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166593158/the-liberty-phone-is-made-in-america?ref=spyglass.org) of such manufacturing in our current world.[1](#one) But then his mistake was in trying to be rational in any way. Trump needs talking points and things that look like "wins" [even if they're not](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/) and/or never come to pass. It's not that complicated. Cook should just say they're going to move iPhone manufacturing to the US – and then never actually follow through with it. Sure, this takes some amount of soul-selling to do, but honestly, [we're past that point already](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/). How many other companies have promised things to give the President a good soundbite that simply are not going to happen? Undoubtedly a lot. Oh but our current world is changing, Navarro has apparently heard: > With all these new advanced manufacturing techniques and the way things are moving with AI and things like that, it’s inconceivable to me that Tim Cook could not produce his iPhones elsewhere around the world and in this country. Ah yes, AI will solve this. Tim Cook should just take Apple's entire logistics operation and run it by a chatbot to see what it says. [But preferably not Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/). [“I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday...”President Trump does not like Apple’s Indian iPhone backup plan – does it matter?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-15--2025--01_43_27-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/indian-iphone-trump-tim-cook/) [Tim Apple Strikes Again!As expected, Apple gets their tariff exemption…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-2.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--1--1-7.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-china-tariffs-exemption/) [The Art of the Old DealTim Cook calls up some old plays to deflect Trump’s tariffs…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-1.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-5.20.51-PM-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-art-of-the-old-deal/) --- 1 Something you'd think might resonate with the President's team given [their own efforts to build an American-made smartphone](https://spyglass.org/t1-trump-phone/). Which may have to hold off [on the "America" part](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/can-apple-drive-to-survive-hollywood?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Remember%20the%20%27T1%27%20Trump%20phone%3F%20The%20gold%2Dish%20brick%20that%20was%20going%20to%20kick%20ass%20and%20take%20voicemails%20all%20while%20being%20made%20in%20America%20for%20%24500%3F%20Take%20that%2C%20Apple!%20Well%2C%20maybe%20hold%20off%20on%20the%20%22Made%20in%20America%22%20references%E2%80%A6%20%5BVerge%5D). ### Taking a Bite Out of the Latest Box Office "Records" URL: https://spyglass.org/box-office-records-inflation/ Last updated: 2025-08-10T13:25:07.000Z The way the Hollywood box office is reported has long been [ridiculous](https://500ish.com/the-way-of-watering-down-records-54d379b8655c?ref=spyglass.org), since, at the highest level, almost [no one cites](https://spyglass.org/inside-out-2-box-office/) inflation-adjusted numbers yet insist on [comparing](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166065880/jurassic-park-tracking?ref=spyglass.org) new release revenue (box office receipts) to [historical numbers](https://500ish.com/the-future-of-cinema-2e0240d83507?ref=spyglass.org). It's like comparing the price of a banana in 2025 to the price of a banana in 1950 and every headline screaming: "Wow, record banana prices!" But it's even worse than that because it's not as if the box office numbers are in-line with 1950 numbers, they're actually *way down*. There's nuance to this, of course as a lot is different in the industry beyond just ticket prices. But we have a way to actually compare bananas to bananas here – just report number of tickets sold, not the revenue based on the price of those tickets. Of course, Hollywood doesn't want to do that as it would look [awful in comparison](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/). It would look like an industry that is [slowly dying](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-in-trouble/)... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Can Meta Buy the Future of AI? URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/ Last updated: 2025-12-10T12:56:51.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-1.png) The most incredible thing about the incredible offers – [some might call them "Godfather" offers](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) – that Meta is making to some AI talent, are incredibly not the offers themselves. It's that everyone has thus far *turned them down*. Now, that very well may change. I mean, [they're reported](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-meta-offer-top-ai-talent-300-million/?ref=spyglass.org) to be offering $300M over 4 years – with perhaps $100M+ up-front in that first year. It has to change at some point, *right?* **Someone has to take that offer?** ***Right?*** But the fact that no one has yet – none of [the people jumping from OpenAI to Meta's new Superintelligence team](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) reportedly got that offer, but instead smaller ones (which are undoubtedly still incredible) – is fascinating. Again, incredible. And it's a really bad look for Meta. Which is, perhaps, [why they feel the need to make such an offer](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/)! _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Meta's 'Godfather' Offer URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/ Last updated: 2025-08-07T18:31:17.000Z Over the weekend, [I tried to square some circles around the "$100M Signing Bonus" headlines](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) surrounding Meta's attempts to lure top AI talent to their new "Superintelligence" team. My main takeaway? While the $100M signing bonuses were likely exaggerated, the overall packages also seemed likely from a company, driven by their founder, that clearly felt an existential need to get back into the AI race. [Subsequent reporting by Zoë Schiffer](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-meta-offer-top-ai-talent-300-million/?ref=spyglass.org) seems to further clarify the extraordinary situation. And it's perhaps closer to the exaggerations side! > As Mark Zuckerberg staffs up Meta’s new [superintelligence lab](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-welcomes-superintelligence-team/?ref=spyglass.org), he’s offering top [research talent](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-meta-leadership-talent-rivalry/?ref=spyglass.org) pay packages of up to $300 million over four years, with more than $100 million in total compensation for the first year, WIRED has learned. > > Meta has made at least 10 of these staggeringly high offers to OpenAI staffers. One high ranking researcher was pitched on the role of chief scientist but turned it down, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations. While the pay package includes equity, in the first year the stock vests immediately, sources say. To be clear, that $100M slug may still not technically be a "signing bonus" – which most would consider to be a lump-sum *cash* payment due at signing – but depending on how it's actually structured, it could be considered close enough. The "vests immediately" element is clearly key here. That implies an RSU grant with front-loaded vesting for that first year (or two different RSU grants, I suppose). If it's truly "immediately", the employee would get the stock that presumably they could sell at any time (well, in normal employee trading windows outside of earnings season, etc), unless Meta put some sort of restrictions on the sale of the stock? Presumably, they'd want some sort of claw-back mechanism in place in case the employee were to leave immediately – though maybe not if they just really want to make a statement with these offers! (I mean, there must be a claw-back provision, right? RIGHT?!) Regardless, if the vesting truly is immediate, the employee would also owe taxes on the amount right away (well, at quarterly tax time in the US given the amounts we're talking). And assuming everyone is in California, that will be just north of 50% going bye-bye right off the bat – so they're probably going to want to sell at least some of that stock as soon as they can. Well, unless Meta is also covering the tax burden. They could, but that seems unlikely as this entire thing is already not an efficient way to do comp. (Meta's finance team must be loving this. [Not](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhIdbRp6xeg&pp=0gcJCfwAo7VqN5tD&ref=spyglass.org).) Anyway, with "more than" $100M due in that first year (is that because of an *actual* signing bonus in cash, or perhaps just their regular old salary/bonus?), the remaining $200M or so would presumably vest over the four year span, per the wording in the report. So that's roughly $50M a year in equity grants. Which would be more than *double* what Meta's executive team gets (which, of course, [is public](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1326801&owner=exclude&ref=spyglass.org) given that Meta is a public company). It's also more than what almost all CEOs get for all but the largest companies in the world. [And also Warner Bros. Discovery](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/warner-bros-discovery-shareholders-reject-pay-david-zaslav-1236254624/?ref=spyglass.org). Okay, so such an offer is rather incredible. Even more incredible is that Meta made said offer to "at least 10" people at OpenAI. Was Meta really ready to commit $3B in comp to these 10 people or (more likely) were they just hoping to entice some of them with the offer, knowing not all of them would take it? In fact, they undoubtedly started with one such offer and then went down a list. But even more incredible, apparently none of them took it! > On Monday, Mark Zuckerberg sent a note to Meta staff [introducing](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-welcomes-superintelligence-team/?ref=spyglass.org) the new superintelligence team. Alexandr Wang, formerly the CEO of Scale AI, is now Meta’s chief AI officer, Zuckerberg said. He’s joined by Nat Friedman who previously led GitHub. Together, Wang and Friedman will colead an organization Zuckerberg dubbed the Meta Superintelligence Labs. The company did not name a chief scientist or a chief research officer as part of the announcement. Neither Wang nor Friedman are thought of as researchers, at least in the traditional sense. None of the OpenAI staffers who left for Meta received the $300 million offer, according to a source with knowledge of the contracts. That's right, *none* of the seven people listed as [jumping ship from OpenAI to Meta](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) got what I simply must call [the "*Godfather"* offer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6me2-OurCw&ref=spyglass.org), apparently. And actually, it's not a "*Godfather"* offer because those that got it seemingly did refuse! It's not clear who was getting those offers, but presumably it is the kind of researchers that could fill the "Chief Scientist" or "Chief Research Officer" roles. In yet another scoop on the matter, [Schiffer obtained a Sam Altman memo on the OpenAI side about the defections](https://www.wired.com/story/sam-altman-meta-ai-talent-poaching-spree-leaked-messages/?ref=spyglass.org): > “Meta has gotten a few great people for sure, but on the whole, it is hard to overstate how much they didn't get their top people and had to go quite far down their list; they have been trying to recruit people for a super long time, and I've lost track of how many people from here they've tried to get to be their Chief Scientist,” he wrote. “I am proud of how mission-oriented our industry is as a whole; of course there will always be some mercenaries.” With that, you can probably guess some of the names they're going after within OpenAI, and it appears they have failed so far in those efforts and instead moved down a rung or two. What might those "second-tier" offers have been? A mere $50M upfront? I'm sure we'll find out soon enough given all the leakage (on both sides) here. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/07/marlon-brando-2.webp) Still, assuming the above is all accurate, it seems pretty clear that Altman was at least being more directionally truthful in his (public) comments on the situation than Meta CTO Andrew "Boz" Bosworth was in his (leaked) internal comments on the situation. Boz tried to portray Altman's statement as deceiving. And while the technicalities around the offers may be a bit different, they're still directionally what Altman said they were at a high level, it seems! As I wrote over the weekend, Boz clearly took his approach to addressing the offers from the position of trying to snuff out any internal disarray around this newfound compensation discrepancy. And again, I think it's probably fair to believe that the "*Godfather*" offers were meant for key executives Meta would bring on board, not necessarily the rank and file. But that's also hard to say without knowing what those "second-tier" offers – the ones that were accepted – are... And that leads to one think I'd like to correct from my writing on the matter. Back to Schiffer's first report: > Andrew Bosworth, chief technology officer at Meta, said that not everyone is getting a $100 million offer during a Q&A with employees last week. “Look, you guys, the market's hot. It's not that hot. Okay? So it's just a lie,” he said. “We have a small number of leadership roles that we're hiring for, and those people do command a premium.” He added that the $100 million is not a sign-on bonus, but “all these different things” and noted OpenAI is countering the offers. The original transcript left out the "lie" part. As such, [I wrote](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/): > There's actually quite a lot said – and not said – in those four simple sentences. First, Boz is implying that what Altman is saying about the Meta comp offers just isn't true. But he specifically doesn't say he's "lying" – because he himself notes that there's some level of truth here with the "he's suggesting that we're doing this for every person" which itself suggests that Meta are making such offers for *some* people – just being "dishonest" as if to suggest that Altman is taking something with some level of truth to it and fudging it a bit to make it less true. My bad, Boz actually did say Altman was lying. Very directly! And given this new report about the "*Godfather*" offer and that it was made *to over 10 people*, I think it's totally fair for Altman to have said what he said: > *"They started making these like giant offers to a lot of people on our team. You know, like $100M signing bonuses, more than that comp per year."* So kudos to Meta on the poaching. But the fact that they got no takers on the "*Godfather*" offer is seemingly a problem for the company. And the fact that they're being disingenuous with their employee base internally seems more so. **One more thing:** > “That’s about how much it would take for me to go work at Meta,” says one OpenAI staffer who spoke with WIRED on the condition of anonymity as they aren’t authorized to speak publicly about the company. Other employees said that they were weighing the money against the potential impact they could have at Meta in comparison to OpenAI. Several believed their impact would be greater at OpenAI. First, a legit lol at that quote. Ouch. Second, it points to the larger element of all this – *yes, beyond even the insanely large comp offers*. But that's another post... --- **Update**: That other post... [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1358.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) ### Zuck's Eleven URL: https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/ Last updated: 2025-08-01T13:54:17.000Z Step aside, [Traitorous Eight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitorous%5Feight?ref=spyglass.org), there's a new group of ship jumpers in Silicon Valley. In his memo announcing his new AI organization, the Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL), Mark Zuckerberg specifically lists out eleven new Meta employees who have come on board for this effort. Well, technically the list is *thirteen* if you include the new leads of the group, [Alexandr Wang](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) and [Nat Friedman](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/). But I'm sorry, I need to reference *Ocean's 11* with my headline and image here – also, [the original](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean%27s%5F11?ref=spyglass.org) – as it's superior to *Ocean's 13*. Ruthlessly, Zuck lists out not just the names of the eleven, but where they're coming from and what they did at those old places of employment. Here they are, per [the memo obtained by Jonathan Vanian for *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/30/mark-zuckerberg-creating-meta-superintelligence-labs-read-the-memo.html?ref=spyglass.org): - **Trapit Bansal* \-- pioneered RL on chain of thought and co-creator of o-series models at OpenAI.* - **Shuchao Bi* \-- co-creator of GPT-4o voice mode and o4-mini. Previously led multimodal post-training at OpenAI.* - **Huiwen Chang* \-- co-creator of GPT-4o’s image generation, and previously invented MaskGIT and Muse text-to-image architectures at Google Research* - **Ji Lin* \-- helped build o3/o4-mini, GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, GPT-4.5, 4o-imagegen, and Operator reasoning stack.* - **Joel Pobar* – inference at Anthropic. Previously at Meta for 11 years on HHVM, Hack, Flow, Redex, performance tooling, and machine learning.* - **Jack Rae* \-- pre-training tech lead for Gemini and reasoning for Gemini 2.5\. Led Gopher and Chinchilla early LLM efforts at DeepMind.* - **Hongyu Ren* \-- co-creator of GPT-4o, 4o-mini, o1-mini, o3-mini, o3 and o4-mini. Previously leading a group for post-training at OpenAI.* - **Johan Schalkwyk* – former Google Fellow, early contributor to Sesame, and technical lead for Maya.* - **Pei Sun* – post-training, coding, and reasoning for Gemini at Google Deepmind. Previously created the last two generations of Waymo’s perception models.* - **Jiahui Yu* – co-creator of o3, o4-mini, GPT-4.1 and GPT-4o. Previously led the perception team at OpenAI, and co-led multimodal at Gemini.* - **Shengjia Zhao* – co-creator of ChatGPT, GPT-4, all mini models, 4.1 and o3\. Previously led synthetic data at OpenAI.* By my count, that's: - 7 from OpenAI - 2 from Google - 1 from Anthropic - 1 from [Sesame](https://www.sesame.com/?ref=spyglass.org) That's... a lot from OpenAI.[1](#one) Now you see why they were sending around internal notes that sound quite shaken and stirred – ["someone has broken into our home"](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-meta-leadership-talent-rivalry/?ref=spyglass.org).[2](#two) I can't speak directly to the quality of this team, that's above my pay grade ([clearly](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/)), but it certainly *seems* more impactful than [the downplaying of the poaching](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Sam%20Altman%20confirmed,%5BTechCrunch%5D) a couple weeks back by Sam Altman. It may or may not be their "best people" – but it's a lot, no question. [Money wins](https://giphy.com/gifs/SuccessionHBO-hbo-succession-successionhbo-mEhyrxDNzGQbGdncfc?ref=spyglass.org), [and all that](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/). Beyond that, the most interesting aspects of the memo are [***what's not mentioned***](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/#update). Most notably, Friedman's investing partner, **Daniel Gross**. This [immediately jumped out to me](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:bqdtwrjvjqldbquxyezad735/post/3lstrazvps227?ref=spyglass.org) because he would be a massive get by Meta, given not just his AI work and investing [through the NFDG fund](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/), but also his current role as um, CEO of Safe Superintelligence. You know, the other "superintelligence" effort, started by Ilya Sutskever as his post-OpenAI project. And the one currently [valued at $32B](https://spyglass.org/the/) despite having just been started and not having any products in market – in fact, *they may never have any products in market*, but I digress. It was wild that Gross was apparently going to jump over to Meta. Especially since reports stated that Zuckerberg [had tried to hire Sutskever himself](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/#update) (and presumably tried to acquired SSI), but was rebuffed. [Divide and conquer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide%5Fand%5Fconquer?ref=spyglass.org), a common tactic used by the Romans in Gaul! Again, [ruthless](https://spyglass.org/do-you-even-tech-bro/). But the fact that Gross isn't listed here may suggest one of two things. First, either his deal isn't finalized yet.[3](#three) Second, that someone, maybe Sutskever, maybe the investors in SSI, got to him and pulled him back from the brink. I suspect we'll hear more about this very soon. ****Update:** we have now heard more soon, as expected, see: [update below](#update2). Also not mentioned in the memo: **Yann LeCun**. Never one to be quiet about the current state of AI, he's been awfully restrained in the past couple of weeks as all of this has swirled around. On the other hand, while he's been against all the talk about achieving AGI through LLMs, [he's apparently on board with ASI](https://www.eetimes.eu/meta-le-cun-outlines-path-to-artificial-super-intelligence/?ref=spyglass.org). Still, it seems weird not to even *mention* your Chief AI Scientist when you just hired a Chief AI Officer... Meta's previous model work with **Llama** does get one paragraph – seven paragraphs into the memo: > *I’m excited about the progress we have planned for Llama 4.1 and 4.2\. These models power Meta AI, which is used by more than 1 billion monthly actives across our apps and an increasing number of agents across Meta that help improve our products and technology. We’re committed to continuing to build out these models.* Leading with "I'm excited" probably says [all you need to know there](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). But just in case, [the billions now being spent](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) to play catch up after the billions spent on Llama drills home the point: Llama, at least as we previously knew it, is yesterday's AI news within Meta. > *In parallel, we’re going to start research on our next generation of models to get to the frontier in the next year or so. I’ve spent the past few months meeting top folks across Meta, other AI labs, and promising startups to put together the founding group for this small talent-dense effort. We’re still forming this group and we’ll ask several people across the AI org to join this lab as well.* "It's better to be a pirate than join [the navy](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/)." We're gonna need a picture of this group together, for good measure. [Ideally in suits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitorous%5Feight?ref=spyglass.org#/media/File:The%5FTraitorous%5FEight.jpg). But [one well-placed bow-tie and a pirate flag](https://folklore.org/Pirate%5FFlag.html?ref=spyglass.org) will work too. Fine, I'll accept one [in front of the Bellagio fountain](https://neon.reviewjournal.com/movies/how-oceans-eleven-became-part-of-bellagios-fabric/?ref=spyglass.org). **One more thing:** one phrase never mentioned once in the entire memo: **"open source"**. [Interesting](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/). --- **Update July 2, 2025**: Some further thoughts and analysis on the comp offers... [Meta’s ‘Godfather’ OfferWhich, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused – so far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1349.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-14.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) [Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?No.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1359.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_one_ship_on_the_high_seas_shooting_another_ship_with_mo_8c21b2ac-2ad0-4632-981b-73a2a4c7123a_0-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-openai-the-future-of-ai/) --- **Update July 3, 2025**: And sure enough, the Daniel Gross shoe has finally dropped. As it turns out, he *is* joining Meta, [as Shirin Ghaffary and Kurt Wagner report for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/meta-hires-researcher-gross-to-join-new-ai-superintelligence-lab?ref=spyglass.org). And yes, it seems likely that his deal wasn't finalized yet when the others were announced per above (or else Zuckerberg would have announced it, obviously). Though interestingly, Ilya Sutskever, [in commenting on the news](https://x.com/ilyasut/status/1940802278979690613?ref=spyglass.org), noted that Gross technically stopped working for SSI on June 29 – *the day before* Zuck's memo. Perhaps that's just a vesting/leaving issue and he hadn't yet finalized his Meta deal. No word on Gross' deal terms, though he'll apparently be working on "AI products". Imagine that. [Yuliya Chernova of *WSJ* also has](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-offers-to-buy-stake-in-venture-funds-started-by-ai-hires-nat-friedman-and-daniel-gross-cc72ad49?ref=spyglass.org) more details about how Meta is structuring [the "hackquisition" of Gross and Nat Friedman's NFDG fund](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/), confirming a lot of what was [previously reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-talks-hire-former-github-ceo-nat-friedman-daniel-gross-join-ai-efforts?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir). One new key detail: Meta would apparently be paying current book value for the "up to 49%" stake they buy from LPs, meaning a nice, quick and easy 4x return on those positions (while the rest presumably can ride...). With those numbers in mind, we can do some quick and dirty math here. If the $1.1B fund is "about half" deployed – let's call it $500M to make it easy – and the book value of those holdings is up 4x, that's $2B. If Meta is acquiring "up to 49%" – again, let's call it 50% to keep it simple – that's $1B that they're likely paying for the stakes. And it's also stated that the fund won't make new investments, so they're presumably returning that remaining $500M to LPs. So that's $1.5B returned on the $500M invested, with $500M (currently marked up 4x) still riding. A nice, quick and clean return for investors with good upside potential left! Also, assuming Gross and Friedman got a slight premium on the "2 & 20" model, let's guess they have 2.5/25 terms on the fund. That means they would likely get 25% of $500M (the profit of the fund after $500M deployed is fully paid back to LPs, and the unused $500M is returned). That's $62.5M each (minus any carry they gave to others helping with the fund) for a couple years worth of work, not bad. And they still have the upside on the money left riding too – which is now in carry and again, marked up 4x on paper... So that's another $250M worth of carry as it stands right now — each. And presumably Meta added some sweeteners on top of the above to get them to walk away from their fund. A ["*Godfather*" offer](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) perhaps?... And how's this for awkward: that fund's crown jewel? Safe Superintelligence. --- 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [$100M AI Signing BonusesExaggeration, conflation, a game of Telephone, directional accuracy, brinksmanship, or all of the above?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1337.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_cash_falling_from_the_sky_moody_--ar_43_--v_7_d6ebc446-3fe2-4793-b80b-893cc4ee9e52_2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1338.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1339.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) [Meta Hackquires a VC Fund“Team Superintelligence” continues to assemble at Meta, but it’s getting even more awkward…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1340.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/metamoney-3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/) [Meta’s Open Source AI MistakeThe writing isn’t just on the wall for Llama, it’s on the new paychecks…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1336.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/) --- 1 With a special shout-out to Google as 5 worked there at some point, which continues the narrative that [modern AI was very much born at Google but they let aspects slip away](https://spyglass.org/google-isnt-lazy-its-timid-as-it-sadly-must-be/). 2 And it doesn't include the three OpenAI employees moving over that were previously announced/[reported](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-poaches-three-openai-researchers-eb55eea9?st=8QcsTj&reflink=desktopwebshare%5Fpermalink&ref=spyglass.org). So that's... 10 from OpenAI alone. 3 The fact that Zuck states that Friedman will "define his role going forward" – not to mention the sloppiness of the whole "lead" and "partner to lead" element for Wang and Friedman around MSL suggests this was all a bit rushed. And that may lend credence to Gross' deal simply not being done. We'll see. ### Hey Siri, Time for that Lobotomy URL: https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt-claude/ Last updated: 2025-08-23T14:06:57.000Z This past January, I tempted fate. I wrote a headline in the style of [Betteridge's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s%5Flaw%5Fof%5Fheadlines?ref=spyglass.org) even though I was pretty certain the answer was, in fact, "yes": [**Should Apple Switch Off Siri?**](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) My argument in that piece was that Apple should shut down their internal version of Siri in order to rebuild her from the ground up and in the meantime, outsource her brain to ChatGPT. As I wrote: > And so I ask again: should Apple switch off Siri? Given the aforementioned OpenAI deal, why not [fully outsource Siri](https://spyglass.org/siri-openai-chatgpt-apple/) to ChatGPT? You'd still want to keep the task-oriented elements – setting timers, etc – with her, but everything that requires anything resembling a search query should be outsourced. Right now, you can force this by asking Siri to ask ChatGPT something, but it's cumbersome, I'm suggesting this be made the default action. By March, with [news](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-02/apple-siri-compared-with-alexa-m4-macbook-air-and-ipad-air-2025-coming-soon-m7rn2k2y?cmpid=BBD030225%5FPOWERON&ref=spyglass.org) of yet another delay of an actual useful Siri from 2026 until 2027, I had see enough. This time, there was no question mark: [**Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPT**](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/). And, well, here we are. [As Mark Gurman reports for *Bloomberg* today](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-30/apple-weighs-replacing-siri-s-ai-llms-with-anthropic-claude-or-openai-chatgpt?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple is considering using artificial intelligence technology from Anthropic or OpenAI to power a new version of Siri, sidelining its own in-house models in a potentially blockbuster move aimed at turning around its flailing AI effort. > > The iPhone maker has talked with both companies about using their large language models for Siri, according to people familiar with the discussions. It has asked them to train versions of their models that could run on Apple’s cloud infrastructure for testing, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. While no decision has been made one way or another yet, and [work continues](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) on Apple's own internal models for "LLM Siri", this change could happen as early as next year. So why the change of heart? Well, the [change](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) of leadership: > The project to evaluate external models was started by Siri chief Mike Rockwell and software engineering head Craig Federighi. They were given oversight of Siri after the duties were removed from the command of John Giannandrea, the company’s AI chief. He was sidelined in the wake of a tepid response to Apple Intelligence and [Siri feature delays](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-07/apple-confirms-delay-of-ai-infused-personalized-siri-assistant?ref=spyglass.org). > > Rockwell, who previously launched the Vision Pro headset, assumed [the Siri engineering role](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/apple-vision-pro-chief-mike-rockwell-named-siri-head-giannandrea-keeps-ai-role?ref=spyglass.org) in March. After taking over, he instructed his new group to assess whether Siri would do a better job handling queries using Apple’s AI models or third-party technology, including Claude, ChatGPT and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Gemini. That must have been a fun test. But interestingly, it was not ChatGPT, but apparently *Claude* that won this particular bake-off: > After multiple rounds of testing, Rockwell and other executives concluded that Anthropic’s technology is most promising for Siri’s needs, the people said. That led Adrian Perica, the company’s vice president of corporate development, to start discussions with Anthropic about using Claude, the people said. Beyond any technical hold-ups, there's clearly some worry about the message that switching to third-party services would send internally. While Siri has been a mess for a long time, Apple obviously has great talent on their teams, it has clearly been [more of a strategy](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) and [leadership issue](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/). On the technical side, it sounds like the biggest hurdle may be getting these third-party models to run on Apple's own "Private Cloud Compute" servers, so that Apple can maintain some credibility on the data security front while outsourcing this work. And Apple would continue using their own models on local devices (though it sounds like OpenAI pitched Apple on this idea too). But the biggest hold-up? > While discussing a potential arrangement, Apple and Anthropic have disagreed over preliminary financial terms, according to the people. The AI startup is seeking a multibillion-dollar annual fee that increases sharply each year. The struggle to reach a deal has left Apple contemplating working with OpenAI or others if it moves forward with the third-party plan, they said. A "multibillion-dollar annual fee" let alone one that "increases sharply each year" is probably a bridge too far for Apple. This is a company whose[ largest M&A deal](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) ever was $3B (for Beats, just over a decade ago). Can you see Apple paying Anthropic – [in which Amazon and Google have huge stakes](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/) – more than that *each year*? And Anthropic should want this contract, as they've struggled to gain traction with Claude versus ChatGPT. Then again, they're seemingly happy to cede that [consumer business](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) and focus on coding, agents, and other elements of AI. So maybe they think such a deal only makes sense if Apple makes it worth their while. That potentially puts OpenAI right back in the driver seat. Perhaps Apple could [strike a deal](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment-chatgpt/) that sees them [invest in the company](https://spyglass.org/apple-openai-investment/) – [for real this time](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/). And perhaps that would set up an unveil that [I dreamed up for WWDC 2025, but instead at WWDC *2026*](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/): > Can't you just hear them say something like this on stage at WWDC in a few months? > > "The response to ChatGPT integration inside of Apple Intelligence has been amazing. So amazing that we're extending the partnership to bring ChatGPT integration even deeper into Siri with \[pause for dramatic effect\] **SiriGPT**." > > At first, this could be mainly powered by ChatGPT – maybe Apple would couch it a bit, noting that it was a hybrid of their own models and OpenAI's, again, much like Amazon is doing with Alexa+ – but over time, this could slowly morph. Again, perhaps they start to offer other models behind the scenes and seamlessly route queries (which would also ensure they're [future-proofed](https://spyglass.org/ai-deepseek-panic/) and [not putting](https://spyglass.org/want-you-back-deepseek/) all their eggs in [one basket](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/)). And over time, Apple's own models – which [they clearly need](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chatbot/) at this point, even if distilled from others – take over most of the Apple Intelligence workload. But it all starts with ChatGPT giving Siri that [lobotomy](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/). > > Boom. Ship it. We're closer than ever to that happening it seems. --- **Update August 23, 2025**: And now it seems as if Google's Gemini models has entered this competition as well... [Apple’s Great AI Bake OffGemini enters the tent alongside Claude, ChatGPT, and Apple’s own models to see who can bake the best Siri…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-169.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_draw_a_bunch_of_cakes_being_baked_by_robots_--v_7_621fd0b0-e446-427b-8976-bbf74ff99c4e_2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-gemini-ai/) --- 👇 ****I've been harping on this for a while...** [Apple Should Swap Out Siri with ChatGPTNot forever, but for now. Until a new, better Siri is actually ready to roll — which may be \*years\* away…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1331.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robot_with_an_apple_logo_and_a_scientist_opening_up_i_dbf83ee0-18c0-48e0-8074-7e3f2a9c4212_2-8.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) [Hey Siri, Who Powers You Now?How Apple might handle their partnership with OpenAI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1333.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-10-Crayon-Drawing-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-openai-chatgpt-apple/) [Is Siri About to Get a ChatGPT Brain Transplant?Or simply an augmentation? Or will Apple finally launch ‘Knowledge Navigator’?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1335.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-Brain-Illustration-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/) [Jolting Siri Back to LifeDoes OpenAI hold the defibrillator?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1334.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2024-06-07-09.58.05---A-futuristic-robot-holding-a-defibrillator-over-a-smartphone.-The-robot-should-have-a-sleek--metallic-design-with-blue-and-silver-colors--and-look-hum-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/jolting-siri-back-to-life/) [Should Apple Switch Off Siri?In our Age of AI, Siri continues to embarrass Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1332.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--74--10.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) ### Meta's Open Source AI Mistake URL: https://spyglass.org/metas-open-source-ai-mistake/ Last updated: 2025-08-01T13:53:16.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/mgs22_a_sad_llama_roaming_alone_--ar_43_--v_7_40cbf839-3706-4f29-b2b0-663940a36285_0-1.png) With all [the talk of $100M signing bonuses or offers or both or whatever](https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/), we're looking right past the issue of "why". That is, why does Mark Zuckerberg have to offer such incredible amounts of money to convince people to come over to work on Meta's new "Superintelligence" team? You keep hearing that it's the market and it's crazy right now. But that's mainly true because *it's Meta who are the ones setting this market*! Again, why? The high level answer is obvious: they need to play catch up. But for months and months seemingly all we've heard out of Meta is how much their products are "killing it" and they're the leaders in AI. [Obviously, that wasn't true.](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/) But again, why? Seemingly part of it was a fundamental bet which Zuckerberg made that may have backfired. That is, the bet on open source. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Return of the MacBook? URL: https://spyglass.org/cheap-macbook-color/ Last updated: 2026-03-04T19:12:21.000Z [Kuo: Apple to release cheaper MacBook powered by iPhone processor - 9to5MacApple’s current entry-level laptop is the $999 MacBook Air, but analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple is aiming to launch an…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/9to5-clock-9.svg)9to5MacBenjamin Mayo![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/M4-MacBook-Air-take-two.jpg)](https://9to5mac.com/2025/06/30/cheaper-macbook-iphone-chip-kuo/?ref=spyglass.org) For a few years now, it has been strange that there's a 'MacBook Pro' and 'MacBook Air' but no actual 'MacBook'. I mean, sure, the 'Air' is effectively the MacBook these days, but ever since [the last true MacBook was put out to pasture six years ago](https://500ish.com/the-macbook-error-af2dfc9b811f?ref=spyglass.org), it's been a weird [branding quirk](https://500ish.com/those-airy-macbooks-b1d8f4e47ba6?ref=spyglass.org). And it may be about to change: > Apple’s current entry-level laptop is the $999 MacBook Air, but analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple is aiming to launch an even more affordable model soon. > > [He writes on X](https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1939558413459177897?ref=spyglass.org) that Apple will go into production in late 2025 or early 2026 on a new MacBook model that will be powered by the A18 Pro chip, rather than an M-series processor. This is the same chip used in the [iPhone 16 Pro](https://amzn.to/46mJZNj?ref=spyglass.org) line. The machine may feature colorful casing options, including silver, pink and yellow. Kuo's track-record is mixed on many of his Apple predictions, but that's usually when he tries to [pontificate outside](https://spyglass.org/foldable-giant-ipad/) of his tried-and-true supply chain sources (he's [particularly bad](https://mgs.blog/on-the-latest-ipad-fold-rumors-bd4e0c3a076d?ref=spyglass.org) at [trying to guess the dates](https://mgs.blog/on-the-2023-foldable-iphone-b48e1ff8b34e?ref=spyglass.org) in which things will be released). But if you read [his actual post](https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1939558413459177897?ref=spyglass.org), the above information is clearly tied to a check in with Everwin Precision, which is a Shenzen-based company "that mainly engages in the development, design, production and sales of electronic components," [per *Reuters*](https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/300115.SZ?ref=spyglass.org)*.* Per Kuo, they're apparently working on both these new would-be MacBooks *and* the "Smart Glasses" that Apple is [rushing towards releasing](https://spyglass.org/apple-smart-glasses-2026/). So that's promising. It's less clear how reliable Kuo's information would be about what is powering such machines. But it seems reasonable enough to think that Apple could use the 'A' series chips found in iPhones, as Mayo points out, they're certainly powerful enough, with similar performance to their 'M' series cousins which have been used in MacBooks since they switched to Apple Silicon (the iPad switches between the two series, with the 'Pro' models now getting the 'M' chips). One big benefit of using the 'A' series chips: Apple produces them at a much higher quantity thanks to the iPhone (and to a lesser extent, the lower-end iPads). So presumably they carry a lower cost and as such, could lead to price savings for an actual MacBook device. But would it be better than, say, [using the last generation of the 'M' series chip](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/)? Hard to say... Kuo believes the new product line would ship 5 to 7 million units in 2026, but he's often wrong on such projections as well. If it really is a significantly cheaper MacBook – say $799 – it could be a huge hit for students, one imagines. Especially if Apple is *finally* looking to [bring some fun back](https://spyglass.org/over-oiled-apple/) into the line up [again with colors](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/), as Kuo suggests: > Expected to enter mass production in late 4Q25 or early 1Q26, with an approximately 13-inch display and powered by the A18 Pro processor. Potential casing colors include silver, blue, pink, and yellow Silver [and blue](https://spyglass.org/m4-macbook-air-blue-thoughts/), of course, are already a part of the Air lineup. Pink and yellow would be sort of strange choices – are we sure he's not just thinking about (or hearing about) rose gold and gold? Again, these have already exists before in the MacBook Air lineup so it's hard to say... Presumably if Apple was going to do colors for the MacBook lineup, they would [match what they do for the iMac](https://mgs.blog/colorful-macbooks-e7511e95a57b?ref=spyglass.org)? I'm more intrigued by the "approximately 13-inch display" – could this mean a return to [the 12-inch form factor of the last MacBook](https://mgs.blog/rip-12-inch-macbook-cf8369b233dc?ref=spyglass.org)? Myself and others loved that footprint, despite the bad "butterfly" keyboard, and pretty terrible battery life. The keyboards have been fixed and Apple Silicon fixes any battery life concerns so... might it be time for another go with the MacBook? --- **Update March 4, 2026**: And here she is... [MacBook Neo: WhoaApple’s newest Mac is priced to move…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings-----Multi-1068.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-5.51.36---PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-neo/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on** ***Spyglass** **...** [Where is the Colorful MacBook?I’m not the least bit ashamed to admit that I hate April Fools Day. First, I’m someone who values high quality information above all else.1 Second, it’s stupid. Yes, I’m a grinch or whatever. I just don’t find any of the jokes – especially the jokes by tech companies – funny.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1328.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Basic-Apple-Guy-thread-photo-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/macbook-colors/) [Whittling to PerfectionA few thoughts on the new (and blue) M4 MacBook Air…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1330.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/IMG_7973-2.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/m4-macbook-air-blue-thoughts/) [Always the Low Price, Always. Even with Apple.Walmart Brings the Popular MacBook Air With the M1 Chip to Its Shelves Available for only $699, Walmart will begin offering the MacBook Air with the M1 chip at an amazing value that combines performance, battery life and portability Walmart News Walmart Probably not something you were expecting to casually![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1329.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1710444274892-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/the-walmart-macbook/) ### Apple Finally Has a Hit Movie, But at What Cost? URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/ Last updated: 2025-07-29T20:55:20.000Z Last week, I outlined Apple's feature film prospects heading into the launch of their new Brad Pitt-starring *F1* movie [as follows](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/): > Apple’s feature film situation, to date, [has been a mess](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/). And that’s putting it lightly. First and foremost, with a few exceptions, the movies just have not been any good. Sure, that’s subjective on a movie-by-movie basis. [But as a collective](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/), it’s less subjective and more just a problem. At least somewhat related, none of the movies have performed well at the box office. That’s not subjective. \*None of them.\* Part of that is marketing — which yes, is a weird problem for Apple, of all companies, to have — and so they’re clearly pulling out all the stops for F1, their latest and best attempt at success at the movies. Well, it seems to have worked. At last – as [long predicted](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) – a box office victory for Apple. Well, call it winning lap one, perhaps. Still a win is a win. And the *F1* opening box office results are clearly a win, per the numbers [Pamela McClintock is reporting for *The Hollywood Reporter*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/brad-pitt-f1-fire-up-box-office-m3gan-2-1236301336/?ref=spyglass.org): > The Formula One movie — directed by [Joseph Kosinski](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t/joseph-kosinski/?ref=spyglass.org) of *Top Gun: Maverick* fame and starring Brad Pitt — earned an impressive $25 million on Friday from 3,661 theaters for a North American opening in the $55 million-$58 million range, well ahead of expectations. Friday’s haul included a hefty $10 million in previews. > > Warner Bros. is distributing and helping Apple to market the big-budget summer tentpole, which is tipped to earn [another $85 million overseas](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/f1-the-movie-review-roundup-critics-1236293666/?ref=spyglass.org) for a global start of at least $140 million — supplanting *World War Z’*s $112 million to mark the biggest worldwide launch of Pitt’s career, not adjusted for inflation. *F1* has a huge advantage in having a lock on Imax screens for three weeks, in addition to playing in other premium large-format screens, including Dolby Cinema, for part of that time. (On Friday, 58 percent of ticket sales were for premium auditoriums). One major caveat: the movie sports a hefty production budget of at least $200 million before marketing, so it will need to keep the pedal to the metal in the weeks ahead if it is to make its money back. It could touch $60M once the total tallies are done, which would be a solid $10M above even the highest analyst expectations (and far higher than Warner Bros. – which helped distribute and market the movie – own obviously sandbagged expectations). It's by far the biggest box office opening for Apple, [as it will at least *double* what *Killers of the Flower Moon* took in](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/box-office-brad-pitt-f1-movie-opening-day-m3gan-2-1236443223/?ref=spyglass.org) a couple years ago.[1](#one) So far, so great. But. Most of the reporting (and whispers) suggests that the production budget of "at least $200 million" is likely quite a bit higher. Perhaps closer to $300M. *Perhaps more.* Certainly more with the marketing spend factored in. As such, the movie likely needs to make something well above $700M to break-even. That's because of the cut that goes to theaters but also here the cut that goes to Warner Bros. If you go by the general rule of thumb that the full domestic box office for this type of movie will usually be 2.5x to 3x the opening weekend numbers, we're looking at a domestic total of something in the $150M to $180M range. But that will likely be [boosted higher](https://spyglass.org/imax/) by the aforementioned IMAX run. So it certainly seems like $200M+ could be possible here. For worldwide, the math is similar with a $350M to $450M tally looking most likely. Not to dump cold water on this strong opening, but that would obviously *not* be good for Apple. As that would be *perhaps half* of what they need to make in order to break even. And if it does play out that way, that might very well be the end of Apple's foray into theatrical once Tim Cook takes one look at such numbers. Of course, Apple gets to use different math than a typical Hollywood studio here when calculating [the ROI](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-minus/). The hope is that *F1* creates the fabled "halo effect" around Apple's brand as it relates to entertainment, and [big theatrical releases boost that effect](https://spyglass.org/netflix-movie-theaters/) – even if they don't boost Apple's bottom-line. Still, what they want and need to avoid here are the headlines that this was another box office bomb, and they have successfully turned around the narrative in week one. The question is how the *total* run will be framed. And again, there's still quite a lot of risk there when you just extrapolate out the numbers. Yes, even though they're considered good in week one! It's all relative! What Apple needs is for word-of-mouth to kick in to ensure that *F1* continues to operate beyond the norms. The second weekend will be the key indicator, if the box office drops 55%+, *F1* is in trouble for that longer term. If the drop is more like 45%-50%, that would be great news for Apple, as they will have a shot at a legitimate hit. Or, at least, making their money back while avoiding negative headlines down the line. But beyond recouping the actual cost here, you also have to wonder what this opening cost Apple in terms of brand. Because they pulled out all the stops in marketing this to their audience, there's been quite a bit of backlash. And you can say that won't matter longer term, but *people still talk about the free U2 album sent to iPhones promotion years later*. It was not a great moment for Apple [and neither was this](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/). As I wrote [last week](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/): > And so now it all comes down to F1\. Which, again, looks and [sounds good](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/f1-the-movie/?ref=spyglass.org). But as anyone who follows movies knows, often that's not enough. It has to be marketed correctly. Which is where Apple has been stumbling. So again, they're pulling out all the stops here. [Magazine spreads](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/with-friends-like-these?open=false&ref=spyglass.org#%C2%A7tim-cook-reveals-apples-vision-for-movies-and-tv) for Tim Cook and Lewis Hamilton. Brad Pitt stops [in Apple Stores](https://www.apple.com/uk/tv-pr/news/2025/06/apple-tv-celebrates-emmy-award-winning-hit-seriesseverance-with-panel-at-apple-fifth-avenue-flagship-store-and-a-surprise-appearance-by-f1-the-movie-star-brad-pitt-and-apple-ceo-tim-cook/?ref=spyglass.org). WWDC [sponcon](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/#one). And yes, [push notifications](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/). Beyond all of the above,[2](#two) yesterday I opened the Apple TV app on my phone to be greeted by [*a full screen pop-up*](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lsp2lddqwk2w?ref=spyglass.org) imploring me to buy tickets for *F1*. This is the kind of stuff we're used to on many websites, obviously. But not from Apple. Many people feel like they're paying a premium for Apple products so as not to get such promotion shoved into their faces. Even more insulting: the note that by clicking on the link, it would take you to the web to pay for the ticket.[3](#three) All of this shows just how badly Apple wanted and needed *F1* to be a hit. And it worked – at least in week one. So the next logical question is if Apple now feels the need to do this type of marketing to their audience for every release going forward? If so, that's undoubtedly going to turn off some subset of their audience. Fast. And again, the bigger question is if *F1* turns into an *actual* hit for Apple, or just a great opening. If it's only the latter, it would obviously be due to the budget and so it may take the company back to [that particular drawing board](https://spyglass.org/big-tech-hollywood-releases/). All I'm saying is maybe hold off on a full victory lap, Apple.[4](#four) This was the equivalent of winning lap one. Still impressive, but there's a lot of racing to go... --- **Update July 9, 2025**: Some fresh thoughts upon actually seeing *F1*: [Apple’s Formula for F1The movie is good, will the actual rights to the sport be for Apple?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-15.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/rev-1-APEX_Feature_SG_44626rcV1_High_Res_JPEG-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apples-formula-for-f1/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [Apple’s Pitt StopThe drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1324.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f1-movie_review_1750832557353_1750832562273-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) [The Apple Car May Have Flopped, Apple’s Car Movie Should NotIt’s just a teaser trailer, but ‘F1’ looks great.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1323.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-07-at-9.28.22-PM-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) [Apple Lives Long Enough to Become the Ad VillainApple pushes too far in their need for ‘F1’ to be a hit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1322.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/9i8yx95v3gyc1-2.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/) --- 1 And while it will be a worldwide record for Brad Pitt, it will likely fall just shy of the $66.4M that *World War Z* opened to domestically in 2013\. Of course, if adjusted for inflation, that opening would look more like $85M in 2025 dollars. And actually, using such an adjustment, *F1* would likely fall to *fourth* on Pitt's best box office openings list, behind *Mr. & Mrs. Smith* and *Troy* as well. Yes, box office records that don't take into account inflation are bullshit. 2 Also, [promotions](https://www.threads.com/@stephenrobles/post/DLdYd5apcBK?xmt=AQF0bsBxVGI3pkH6xGe1oyL3XUZqxNGYocagluxNvnU4XQ&ref=spyglass.org) in Apple Music and Fitness+! 3 This is especially weird since as a physical good, Apple presumably wouldn't take a cut of the sale of a movie ticket, so why not handle it in-app to make it more seamless? [Nobody knows](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&themeRefresh=1&ref=spyglass.org). But it at least gives the *appearance* that Apple is trying to circumvent their own rails for some reason. And it naturally calls attention to [that issue](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/). [Again](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/?ref=email-me-everything-newsletter). 4 Press release in 3... 2... 1... ### $100M AI Signing Bonuses URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-signing-bonuses/ Last updated: 2025-07-29T20:54:53.000Z A couple weeks back, Sam Altman made headlines for saying that Meta was approaching OpenAI talent and offering "$100M signing bonuses" to jump ship over to Mark Zuckerberg's new "Superintelligence" Team being formed within Meta. A few days ago, Meta's CTO, Andrew Bosworth ("Boz"), made headlines for saying that Altman was "being dishonest" with such claims. To be honest, the whole thing is a bit silly because of a higher level point which I'll go ahead and bury down below, but there's also seemingly enough data points now out there to triangulate what the likely truth is here. First and foremost, the amount of publications just citing the "$100M signing bonus" – or "sign-on bonus" which is the same basic thing – as fact was sort of wild. So I wanted to go back and double check what Altman *actually said*. In [a podcast sit down with his brother Jack Altman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZUG0pr5hBo&ref=spyglass.org) 11 days ago, [22:35 into](https://youtu.be/mZUG0pr5hBo?si=Wslg-yXIHdbMLziS&t=1355&ref=spyglass.org) a 37 minute pod, he says the following about Meta's poaching efforts: > "They started making these like giant offers to a lot of people on our team. You know, like $100M signing bonuses, more than that comp per year." That seems pretty declarative, but in some ways it may come down to how you read "like". In some cases, you could interpret "like" to mean "around". But with Altman, it's clearly, like, a verbal tick like so many of us have. But it also could be both! It's also entirely possible that someone told him that's what the *overall* offer was and he misinterpreted that. That seems less likely, but it's possible. More likely may simply be that he misspoke and conflated the signing bonus aspect of the comp with the *overall* package. It's also possible that he *strategically* misspoke on purpose, which is essentially what Boz is claiming (more on that below). Regardless, the "more than that comp per year" would actually seem to be the more outlandish statement! Because it implies that Meta is offering not just $100M signing bonuses, but that ongoing yearly comp will *exceed that amount*. A $100M signing bonus is crazy. More than $100M a year in comp is insane. I mean, I guess if you're Elon Musk negotiating your comp with the Tesla board it's not, but even there, it's milestone-based. (More on that aspect in a minute.) But $100M+ a year for an employee on an ongoing basis would seemingly be out of bounds, even for trillion-dollar companies, even those trying to catch up in AI. Instead, what Altman likely means with that add-on is simply that Meta is offering over $100M when you include the yearly compensation *on top of* that signing bonus. Sorry to get pedantic, but it's being discussed enough that it does seem like what is *actually* happening matters here. And, of course, it's being rebutted. [Alex Heath of *The Verge*](https://www.theverge.com/command-line-newsletter/694028/meta-openai-100-million-bonus-talent-war?ref=spyglass.org) seemingly got either a recording or a transcript of Meta's internal all-hands discussing the matter, and specifically, here's what he's reporting that Boz said in response to a question about it: > *Sam is just being dishonest here. He's suggesting that we're doing this for every single person… Look, you guys, the market's hot. It's not that hot.* There's actually quite a lot said – and not said – in those four simple sentences. First, Boz is implying that what Altman is saying about the Meta comp offers just isn't true. But he specifically doesn't say he's "lying" – because he himself notes that there's some level of truth here with the "he's suggesting that we're doing this for every person" which itself suggests that Meta are making such offers for *some* people – just being "dishonest" as if to suggest that Altman is taking something with some level of truth to it and fudging it a bit to make it less true. Boz goes on: > “And of course, he's not mentioning what the actual terms of the offer are. It's not \[a\] sign-on bonus. It’s all these different things.” Here's where the circle seemingly starts to square. And it's probably why Boz is not just saying Altman is lying outright. Because he's suggesting that the $100M number (more on that in a minute) has some level of truth to it. But not as a signing ("sign-on") bonus, but as a part of an overall comp package with "all these different things." 💰 ***Update July 2, 2025:** *See the* [**update*](#update2) *below and* [**this follow-up post*](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) *for more on the apparent comp packages that have been on offer...* This sort of speaks to the problem that I have with Boz's comments – not to dissimilar from the problem I have with [other recent Boz comments on a totally different matter](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165336673/metas-push-into-defense-tech-reflects-cultural-shift?ref=spyglass.org), by the way – they're misdirection at best, and disingenuous at worst. He may as well have said **loudly** that "look guys, we're not giving out $100M signing bonuses, that's insane..." while following that up with, *quietly*, under-his-breath "...but we are giving out comp packages in that range". Who the hell cares if it's a signing bonus or an overall comp package?![1](#one) $100M offers are wild! Perhaps warranted – we'll only know in hindsight – and probably needed [given the state](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) of [the AI market](https://spyglass.org/the/) and [where Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/) [currently](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/) [sits in it](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) (look no further than the comments at the same all-hands by Meta CPO Chris Cox around [*actual* Meta AI usage](https://spyglass.org/meta-unbundling/), as also cited in the *Verge* report). But still, wild! Hence all the headlines about the number. And the need to push back against the number – or really, again, misdirect from it. > “Sam is known to exaggerate, and in this case, I know exactly why he's doing it, which is because we are succeeding at getting talent from OpenAI. He's not very happy about that.” Assuming the above so far is correct, I guess technically it *is* an exaggeration. But again, it's still directionally accurate enough in terms of what Meta is offering (and, as Boz notes, *OpenAI itself may be counter-offering*) to *some* people. Sure, it may not be the standard package for all the talent Meta is trying to bring on board, but even if it's just for a few folks, it's wild. So wild that it's easy to frame as an "exaggeration".[2](#two) So why not just come out an say exactly what the comp offers are? Well, presumably that would be an HR violation. And full comp transparency is still a touchy subject in Silicon Valley – perhaps now so more than ever thanks to the situation with AI. Boz's entire framing here is clearly to try to cut off any growing internal discontent at Meta where some AI talent is getting paid *far more* than their peers – even other non-AI engineering talent. Such compensation dichotomies are obviously tinder boxes for internal problems with both morale and retention. That's hardly just a Meta problem, but when the new high comp bar is set at $100M... It's a potential bonfire. I should also note that the above may be a reason why someone might want to put such a number – exaggerated or not – out there! It's like lobbing a grenade of strife into a company. "Did you hear we're paying some people $100M?! I'm making $250k!" That kind of thing... It's a potential counter-measure, something [Altman has seemingly already been doing publicly](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165688295/the-gentle-singularity?ref=spyglass.org). Anyway, while Boz never specifically confirms the $100M number, only suggesting it's not true as the signing bonus while also implying that it might be in the ballpark for some small number of overall packages, it's worth looking at some of the actual reporting on the matter. On June 22, a few days after Altman's comment, [Meghan Bobrowsky, Berber Jin, andBen Cohen reported the following for *The Wall Street Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-ai-recruiting-mark-zuckerberg-5c231f75?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org): > Zuckerberg has offered $100 million packages to some people. He doled out $14 billion for [a stake in AI startup Scale](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-in-talks-to-invest-14-billion-in-scale-ai-hire-ceo-alexandr-wang-5268564e?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) and its CEO Alexandr Wang, who is slated to run the new AI team that Zuckerberg is assembling. At that price, he essentially made [the 28-year-old](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/alexandr-wang-scale-ai-d7c6efd7?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) one of the most lucrative hires in history. You'll note the "packages" element here. That, of course, suggests the compensation goes far beyond a "signing bonus". *WSJ* also included the $100M in their headline with "pay packages". While "$100M signing bonuses" may sound good on paper – certainly to anyone getting such an offer or even just *reading about* such an offer! – it also would likely be a nightmare for any company to actually implement. It's so much money up front that you would have to worry about incentives going forward. If someone got all that money right away, what stops them from leaving the minute they're no longer happy? Like say, if Meta doesn't keep giving the mouse their cookie? Or if they get another, similar offer with a massive signing bonus, elsewhere? (It's also, by the way, unlikely to be the most tax-efficient way to do compensation, for either the company or the employee!) If you just step back and think about it, it doesn't make a ton of sense to structure such a package in this way. It has to be mostly incentive-based or at the very least time-based in some way. Obviously. As such, it seems *far more likely* that Meta would offer a merely "healthy" slug of money up front to entice people to leave behind their current equity stakes and come over but that *most* of the incentives would still be tied to performance-based earn-outs. And because Meta is a public company with fully liquid stock (aside from the reporting windows were employees cannot trade), they can easily sell that against an OpenAI, where employees have to wait for a tender offer of some sort to cash in (which, to be fair, [seems to happen a lot at OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/)!). While signing bonuses have been soaring in sports – in particular in the NFL, where every game brings the chance of never playing again and thus, losing a lot of the value of the contract you signed (aside from whatever insurance you took out), tech is a much less risky business. Sure, you may still be an "at will" employee, but there's a reason these companies are all battling over the same people. The market is backstopping the prices here. (There's also perhaps a tangential conversation around "guaranteed" money – something you also hear in sports – and which Altman also casually mentions in the podcast, and how a company might structure that without just using a "signing bonus".) Which is a long-winded way of saying that $100M total compensation offers feel more likely than $100M signing bonuses. And yeah, those getting such offers [seem to back that up](https://x.com/giffmana/status/1938299990922674352?ref=spyglass.org) – though such public pronouncements also feel a bit coordinated, TBH. "Fake news" – what is this, 2017? Yesterday, [Cade Metz wrote the following in *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/technology/ai-spending-openai-amazon-meta.html?ref=spyglass.org): > The tech industry’s giants are building data centers that can cost more than $100 billion and will consume more electricity than a million American homes. Salaries for A.I. experts are jumping as Meta offers signing bonuses to A.I. researchers that top $100 million. That just matter-of-factly states that "signing bonuses" "top $100 million". Presumably he's just taking Altman's word here, but if that's the case, "top" is interesting because Altman didn't actually say that – unless Metz is also roping in Altman's comments about the comp per year exceeding that. But that would be weird to rope into the "signing bonus" number, since again, that's not actually what Altman said.[3](#three) So perhaps *NYT* has their own sources on the matter? Further down, Metz matter-of-factly brings up the number again, but with a different context: > Mr. Zuckerberg has been offering compensation packages worth as much as [$100 million a person](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/technology/meta-new-ai-lab-superintelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org). He and his company made more than 45 offers to researchers at OpenAI alone, according to a person familiar with these approaches. Aha! This links to [an earlier *NYT* report from Metz and Mike Isaac](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/technology/meta-new-ai-lab-superintelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org). It's actually from June 10 – when the initial Meta/Scale AI deal was [going down](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) – *which pre-dates Altman's own comments by a whole week*! And while it doesn't specifically cite the $100M number, it's in the range of their reporting: > Meta has tapped Alexandr Wang, 28, the founder and chief executive of the A.I. start-up Scale AI, to join the new lab, the people said, and has been in talks to [invest billions of dollars in his company](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/technology/meta-scale-ai-investment.html?ref=spyglass.org) as part of a deal that would also bring other Scale AI employees to the company. Meta has offered seven- to nine-figure compensation packages to dozens of researchers from leading A.I. companies such as OpenAI and Google, with some agreeing to join, according to the people. Nine-figures crosses into $100M territory, of course. But this also says "compensation packages" not "signing bonuses". [Another report by Metz and Isaac yesterday](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/technology/mark-zuckerberg-meta-ai.html?ref=spyglass.org) does cite the $100M number in their own reporting, as follows: > And Mr. Zuckerberg and his colleagues have embarked on a hiring binge, including reaching out this month to more than 45 A.I. researchers at rival OpenAI alone. Some received formal offers, with at least one as high as $100 million, two people with knowledge of the matter said. At least four OpenAI researchers have accepted Meta’s offers. Again, that "as high as $100 million" is the "offer" not the "signing bonus". Also yesterday, [Erin Woo of *The Information* cited](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-great-ai-talent-auction-deals-free-agents-egos?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) the $100M signing bonus number (and Boz refuting it) but noted that it was something *Altman said*. Her actual reporting said the following: > News of the biggest offers tend to ping-pong around the entangled world of AI researchers, where everyone seems to have worked with everyone else or graduated from the same doctorate programs. One researcher reported that multiple friends called to express disbelief at the offers they were getting from Meta. On top of eight figures in equity per year, the social media company was dangling eight-figure cash signing bonuses. Such cash compensation tends to be rare at big technology companies, where stock compensation typically accounts for a significant portion of overall pay and helps with retention. "Eight-figure", of course, suggests not $100M, but anything between $10M and $99M. And given that it's those eight-figures in equity (per year) and eight-figures in a (cash) signing bonus, that could very easily go past nine-figures – the mythical $100M threshold. Anyway, all of the above pretty definitively points to a world where Meta is offering $100M+ packages to certain select AI talent, but to get to those numbers, it goes far beyond the signing bonus and likely includes some combination of yearly salary and equity grants on top of a still undoubtedly very healthy – eight-figure in some cases – signing bonus. With all that in mind, it's fairly easy to see how a [game of Telephone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone%5Fgame?ref=spyglass.org) has resulted in the "$100M signing bonus" headlines, fueled by Altman himself, perhaps intentionally, perhaps not. But again, it really doesn't matter because Meta pushing back against this notion is fairly silly if they are, in fact, offering compensation packages to some people worth $100M+. The form it takes isn't really the issue here, even if Meta wants to make it the issue to misdirect internal strife. And it's not just Altman saying that number. It's *WSJ*, *NYT*, and *The Information*. All of whom have great, credible reporters on such topics. And while yes, it's a lot of money, if it gets Meta back into the AI race, it undoubtedly will be well worth it. It's also, [as Julie Bort and Marina Temkin point out at *TechCrunch*](https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/27/meta-is-offering-multimillion-dollar-pay-for-ai-researchers-but-not-100m-signing-bonuses/?ref=spyglass.org), a compensation package that's likely in the ballpark of what executives at Meta make. Like, say, Andrew Bosworth. Because he's an officer at a public company, his compensation is [public](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000132680125000040/meta-20250417.htm&ref=spyglass.org). For the past few years, his total yearly compensation package has been just under $24M. Almost all of that is in RSUs, which vest over a four-year span. Add it up over that span and it's *very* close to a $100M package. That is not, like, an exaggeration. --- **Update July 1, 2025**: Mark Zuckerberg has now formally announced those that have jumped over to Meta's ship... [Zuck’s Eleven7 from OpenAI, 2 from Google, 1 from Anthropic, 1 from Sesame... But just as interesting, what’s \*not\* mentioned.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1350.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/16755053_web1_oceans-11-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) --- **Update July 2, 2025**: [A couple](https://www.wired.com/story/mark-zuckerberg-meta-offer-top-ai-talent-300-million/?ref=spyglass.org) [new reports](https://www.wired.com/story/sam-altman-meta-ai-talent-poaching-spree-leaked-messages/?ref=spyglass.org) by Zoë Schiffer for *Wired* going into more detail on the offers that Meta is making is worth a follow-up here... [Meta’s ‘Godfather’ OfferWhich, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused – so far…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1348.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/maxresdefault-13.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) --- 1 I mean, the person technically receiving such money presumably would, but I digress... 2 By the way, just to note it, the compensation that Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang is likely getting thanks to [the "hackquisition" of his company](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) by Meta is undoubtedly *far higher than $100M*. By at least an order of magnitude, one imagines. Yes, they're technically buying his shares in that case, but still. 3 I would also just note that this is the same report that [states (in a caption) that Apple "considered buying Anthropic"](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lslmwlwslc24?ref=spyglass.org) \-- *something which the piece doesn't actually say*. So unless they're now breaking news in captions, this is just sloppy ([they clearly meant Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/), which *is* cited and reported in the piece). ### Apple’s Pitt Stop URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/ Last updated: 2025-07-27T13:20:55.000Z Apple’s feature film situation, to date, [has been a mess](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/). And that’s putting it lightly. First and foremost, with a few exceptions, the movies just have not been any good. Sure, that’s subjective on a movie-by-movie basis. [But as a collective](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/), it’s less subjective and more just a problem. At least somewhat related, none of the movies have performed well at the box office. That’s not subjective. *None of them*. Part of that is marketing — which yes, is a weird problem for Apple, of all companies, to have — and so they’re clearly pulling out all the stops for *F1*, their latest and best attempt at success at the movies. Will it work? _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Dr. Yes URL: https://spyglass.org/denis-villeneuve-james-bond-movie/ Last updated: 2025-07-26T15:01:35.000Z [Denis Villeneuve to Direct James Bond Film at AmazonDenis Villeneuve will direct the next James Bond film, Amazon MGM Studios has announced. He will also executive produce alongside Tanya Lapointe.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-31.png)VarietyKatcy Stephan![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MixCollage-25-Jun-2025-04-49-PM-1358.jpg)](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/james-bond-denis-villeneuve-director-1236441253/?ref=spyglass.org) Yes. > [Denis Villeneuve](https://variety.com/t/denis-villeneuve/?ref=spyglass.org) will direct the next [James Bond](https://variety.com/t/james-bond/?ref=spyglass.org) film, Amazon MGM Studios has [revealed](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/entertainment/amazon-mgm-studios-james-bond-director-denis-villeneuve?ref=spyglass.org), with Tanya Lapointe signing on as an executive producer. As previously announced, Amy Pascal and David Heyman will serve as producers. > > “Some of my earliest movie-going memories are connected to 007\. I grew up watching James Bond films with my father, ever since ‘Dr. No’ with Sean Connery. I’m a die-hard Bond fan. To me, he’s sacred territory,” Villeneuve said. “I intend to honor the tradition and open the path for many new missions to come. This is a massive responsibility, but also, incredibly exciting for me and a huge honor. Amy, David, and I are absolutely thrilled to bring him back to the screen. Thank you to Amazon MGM Studios for their trust.” I'm kicking myself a bit right now because [following the news](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) earlier this year of Amazon's full take over of the Bond franchise from Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson – [for a lot of moneypennies](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/#update) – I had [intended](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3liykqbirdk2i?ref=spyglass.org) to write a longer piece about why I thought it could *actually work out well for the franchise*. A zag in the anti-Amazon zig pieces, as it were. And I hinted at my main angle in the closing of my initial take: > **One more thing:** might there be an ultimate silver-lining in this news in the form of a Christopher Nolan-directed Bond? Everyone is well aware of [his long-standing interest in the notion](https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2017/jul/11/what-would-a-christopher-nolan-bond-movie-look-like?ref=spyglass.org), but also that [he would have undoubtedly needed complete creative control](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/christopher-nolan-not-directing-james-bond-1235674448/?ref=spyglass.org). You know, the kind Broccoli and Wilson just ceded to Amazon... Well, I never got around to the piece – which is both the worst and most common thing any writer will say – because Amazon beat me to it. No, it's not Christopher Nolan, but it's the next best thing – and perhaps even a *better* thing in many ways – in the form of [his very close friend Denis Villeneuve](https://spyglass.org/villeneuve-dune-2/). Just a week ago, [Matt Belloni hinted](https://puck.news/newsletter%5Fcontent/what-im-hearing-bond-directors-blumhouses-deal-paramounts-trump-counter/?ref=spyglass.org) at this possibility in his newsletter for *Puck*. [As I noted at the time](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=It%20sounds%20like,%5BPuck%5D): > It sounds like **Edward Berger** has already made [his pitch](https://spyglass.org/submerged-in-apple-vision-pro/) to direct the next **Bond** movie — [the first true Amazon Bond](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/). But also in the running are **Edgar Wright**, **Paul King**, and… **Denis Villeneuve**, which would [obviously](https://spyglass.org/villeneuve-dune-2/) be [amazing](https://spyglass.org/2-dune-2-furious/). One name Matt Belloni doesn’t bring up here? Christopher Nolan. BUT he does mention his brother, **Jonathan Nolan**, is making [his pitch](https://spyglass.org/jonathan-nolan-fallout/)… Without a mention of (Christopher) Nolan in that list, it seemed pretty clear who the dream candidate would be. And voilà, as Villeneuve might say. Again, this is *incredible* news for the franchise. The people behind-the-scenes obviously matter – and arguably none have mattered more than the Broccoli family to one franchise over the decades – but at the end of the day, they don't direct the movie. The director does. And while the *Bond* franchise has had many good directors over the years – Terence Young, Guy Hamilton, and Martin Campbell jump to mind – Villeneuve immediately shoots right to the top of that list. Up until now, the name that really stands out in terms of Bond directors would probably be Sam Mendes, he was a huge get at the time thanks to his pedigree (*American Beauty*, *Road to Perdition*, *Revolutionary Road*, etc). Some would consider him to be a fabled "[auteur](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auteur?ref=spyglass.org)", but with *Bond* under Broccoli, you simply couldn't be one. There were rules and you had to follow them, no matter what. *Skyfall* ended up being solid – [and massively successful](https://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbean/2020/04/18/all-26-james-bond-films-ranked-at-the-box-office/?ref=spyglass.org) – [even after inflation!](https://www.reddit.com/r/JamesBond/comments/18nmbka/bond%5Ffilms%5Frank%5Fordered%5Fand%5Fadjusted%5Ffor%5Finflation/?ref=spyglass.org) – so he got a second stab with *Spectre*, which was less good and did less well (but still very well). But Villeneuve is a capital 'A' Auteur. I mean, he's even French (Canadian)! Aside from Nolan and perhaps Quentin Tarantino, he's probably the name most associated with the label still working in their prime right now.[1](#one) Just like with those two, there was no chance that Villeneuve was going to sign on without full creative control. Perhaps he would have pre-*Blade Runner 2049*. But certainly not post-*Dune*. He's fully in that new echelon now. And so this will be a first for *Bond*. So the studio, the producers, and the director is now set. The next question – *before the big one* – will be who is going to write the movie? I'm guessing Villeneuve, as a massive *Bond* fan, will want a shot to at least co-write the script. And I wouldn't be shocked if previous collaborators are brought back on board, perhaps his *Dune* buddies in Eric Roth and Jon Spaihts. Then, yes, ***who*** plays Bond? And does Villeneuve have any say over that? My suspicion would be that they're already close to knowing who they want but wanted the creative force on board to give the final sign off. [*Variety* has the exhaustive list](https://variety.com/lists/next-james-bond-henry-cavill-james-norton-rege-jean-page/dev-patel/?ref=spyglass.org) of basically everyone who is British of a certain age. But it's probably a handful of people really in the running right now. And yes, one is [undoubtedly](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=Also%20no%20word%20on%20the%20actual%20actor%20to%20play%20Bond%20yet%2C%20but%20this%20was%20an%20interesting%20comment%20from%20one%20of%20the%20rumored%20front%2Drunners%E2%80%A6%20%5BDeadline/Xitter%5D) the [long-rumored front-runner, Aaron Taylor-Johnson](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/).[2](#two) Does it hurt that he's likely met with Broccoli in the past? Or if any of the others have for that matter? Probably not, it may actually *help*. Remember that she and Wilson retain ownership rights and this would be a nice way to bridge the old world and the new one. Arguably the most important element of their stewardship was picking the right Bond actor. If they're in the loop on the next one, it's a nice recognition of something they've done so well over the years. Interestingly enough, Villeneuve hasn't worked in the past with any of the front-runners for the role, so that's also a nice clean slate.[3](#three) Next up: timing. It's well known that Villeneuve's next project currently setting up for production is *Dune: Messiah* – aka *Dune 3*. He's said that will be the last of the Duniverse for him and clearly it was fast-tracked after [the success of *Dune: Part Two*](https://spyglass.org/dune-2-thoughts/). Before that, it was thought that [*Rendezvous with Rama*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rendezvous%5Fwith%5FRama?ref=spyglass.org), the Arthur C. Clarke story, would be his next project. That undoubtedly gets pushed again for *Bond*. Amazon will move heaven and Earth (and spaceships orbiting Earth in the heavens) to get the franchise into production, but they cannot move Arrakis. And again, the movie still needs to be written! And cast! The best we can probably hope for is a mid-to-late-2026 production start and a late-2027 release. But it could slip to 2028\. [I've written about this timing issue before](https://spyglass.org/license-to-shop/): > [There have been lulls before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List%5Fof%5FJames%5FBond%5Ffilms?ref=spyglass.org) – notably the six years between Timothy Dalton's License to Kill and Pierce Brosnan's first foray ([after a long courtship](https://www.mi6-hq.com/sections/articles/pierce-brosnan-first-approach-for-james-bond-1983?id=05239&ref=spyglass.org)) in Goldeneye. The more recent six year stretch between Spectre and No Time to Die was, of course, mainly due to COVID. And specifically because of the theatrical ideal that Broccoli insisted on maintaining. We're past three years now since that last Bond, with still no next Bond having been cast, let alone a script or director being set. There's seemingly no way this new lull isn't at least five years – and potentially a lot longer. Potentially indefinitely! > > And even in the best case scenario, say they're able to get a new Bond out there in late 2026, that would mean there would have been a stretch of only two James Bond films in a decade. That has never happened before – even after Brosnan took over, he ramped fast so that the 1989 - 1999 decade saw \*four\* Bond films. Again, the 2016 - 2026 would have two films, and that's in the best case scenario. Which seems unlikely. More likely, just one Bond film for the past decade. So yeah, this new *Bond* will undoubtedly at least match the six year gap and could very well surpass it. And it will mean the fewest *Bonds* produced in a decade span. But given the change in control and now who is being put in the director's chair, there's now nothing but hope and belief that it will be well worth the wait. And with Villeneuve in control, and [Amazon bought in](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165849677/amazon-mgm-heavily-invested-in-theatrical?ref=spyglass.org), you can bet that *Bond 26* will be fully and exclusively in theaters and likely [shot for IMAX](https://spyglass.org/imax/). But will he have the power to nix any other Amazon [cross-promotional ideas](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/) here? Will he have final [popcorn bucket sign-off](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20240304-why-is-the-dune-2-popcorn-bucket-so-immensely-popular?ref=spyglass.org) this time? His films always have excellent scores. Who does the theme song?! **One more thing:** will Villeneuve set up his *Bond* movie as a stand-alone or will it be meant to have a sequel and/or *sequels*? And if it's the latter, would he be the one to do those or would he, say, hand off to a friend? Like, say, his very good friend and noted *Bond* fan, Christopher Nolan... --- **Update June 27, 2025**: Some day two details around the new Bond film [via *Variety*](https://variety.com/2025/film/news/amazon-james-bond-wants-tom-holland-jacob-elordi-1236442329/?ref=spyglass.org) including the likely 2028 release date. And while we did know that Villeneuve beat out Edward Berger, Edgar Wright, Paul King, and Jonathan Nolan to direct, the report states that Amazon clearly wanted -- who else -- Christopher Nolan. So much so that they would have given him final cut, apparently. But Nolan is still too busy with *The Odyssey*, it seems. Which is wild because Villeneueve *hasn't even started production* on *Dune: Messiah* and filming is well underway for *Odyssey*. Amazon is also said to be looking for an *under-30* actor to play Bond, which would rule out pretty much everyone on my list. The names *Variety* is throwing out there: Jacob Elordi (who, yes, is Australian -- as was George Lazenby), Tom Holland, and Harris Dickinson. Aaron Taylor-Johnson would be 38 by the time the next Bond is likely ready to roll (the same age as Daniel Craig when *Casino Royale* was released, FWIW). Henry Cavill would be 45\. Oh and Villeneuve, despite his auteur status won't have final cut (yes, even though they would have given it to Nolan). He'll also only officially be on board for one Bond film (though it could expand), which [Matt Belloni also reports for *Puck*](https://puck.news/newsletter%5Fcontent/what-im-hearing-hbos-comp-shake-up-peacocks-mini-purge-top-10-vanities/?ref=spyglass.org). --- 🍸 ****Shaken, not stirred...** [Live and Let BuyJames Bond now fully works for Amazon. Die Another Same Day Delivery?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1312.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_james_bond_delivering_a_package_cartoon_--ar_21_--profi_cc863c9f-e2bf-40e8-bc04-ccf5aefb40f3_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/from-amazon-with-love/) [For 007, Amazon is Not EnoughAmazon seemingly has a big Barbara Broccoli problem, which means the world has a big James Bond problem![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1313.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-20-at-1.50.39-PM-1-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/license-to-shop/) [A Bond for the (Correct) Ages?Aaron Taylor-Johnson Offered James Bond Role Reportedly will “sign contract this week” The Sun Howell Davies & Ellie Henman At last, some spy news on Spyglass. With the very real caveat that I’m linking to a UK tabloid (owned by News Corp) and that even they are couching this news with![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1314.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/skynews-aaron-taylor-johnson_6494660-1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/aaron-taylor-johnson-james-bond/) --- 1 And Tarantino keeps saying he's going to quit soon, but then keeps making movies so... He's also [a noted *Bond* fan](https://faroutmagazine.co.uk/quentin-tarantino-best-james-bond-actor/?ref=spyglass.org) and has [pitched ideas before](https://www.mi6-hq.com/sections/articles/movies-quentin-tarantino-on-casino-royale-plans?id=05214&ref=spyglass.org) so... Might we be entering Bond's Auteur Era? 2 I've [long been](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1055682957157920769?s=20&ref=spyglass.org) in the [Richard Madden camp](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1457094316468289540?ref=spyglass.org). But my general list (beyond Taylor-Johnson, who I think would be great) [as given here last year](https://spyglass.org/license-to-shop/): Theo James, Paul Mescal, Regé-Jean Page, Jack Lowden, Henry Golding, Lucien Laviscount, and Madden... 3 Two recent *Bond* film stars that he *has* worked with in the past are both in *Dune*: Léa Seydoux and Javier Bardem. Dr. Madeleine Swann is still alive... ### Begun, the AI Browser Wars Have URL: https://spyglass.org/ai-browser-wars/ Last updated: 2025-07-24T15:43:24.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-25-at-8.50.30---PM-1.png) About a week ago, I bit the bullet. Reading [the writing very clearly on the wall](https://spyglass.org/the-new-ai-browsers/), I abandoned the Arc browser and jumped ship over to [Dia](https://www.diabrowser.com/?ref=spyglass.org), the new AI-first web browser built by The Browser Company. It took a while, but now I think I'm sold. I'm not sure that Dia itself will be the browser of the future, but I'm more certain than ever that an AI-centric browser will be. At first, I found Dia to be a bit too simple for my taste. Because Arc had such a plethora of power-user features, many of which took a lot of training to get used to, it was hard to "downgrade". Of course, that's also the exact reason why The Browser Company shifted the focus to Dia. While Arc had a dedicated fan base, it was also clearly never going to go fully mainstream. They had made a better browser for web power users, but most people were not web power users – at least not in the sense that they would take the time to learn new tricks when Chrome was likely good enough for them. It was a tricky spot for the company to be in, they had sort of painted themselves into a dreaded middle ground. [Too beloved to fail, too small to succeed.](https://spyglass.org/joan-of-arc/) So they sort of went down a third path, letting Arc live on, but really just with underlying engine (Chromium) updates. It's more or less in "maintenance mode" – something which they'd love to outsource, it seems. But they also can't fully *open* source the browser because they're now using some of the infrastructure to build Dia. Again, the writing is on the wall for what happens to Arc one way or another now. And at first this was extremely annoying to me – again, I had put so much time and muscle memory into using their browser. But I also get it. And now I can happily say that I get Dia too. The simplicity is clearly the strength right now. It's sort of like if Chrome was built from the ground up to be AI-first. And I think a lot of people will understand that. Certainly more than understood Arc. Front and center, the fact that Dia *looks* like Chrome helps a lot. To be fair, most browsers now look like Chrome. One of the ones that didn't was Arc, notably because of its side-tabs. I miss the side-tabs when it comes to (tab) information density, [and it seems like](https://x.com/joshm/status/1935732199590101075?ref=spyglass.org) The Browser Company is working on ways to perhaps bring them back as an option within Dia. But the default should clearly be what people know: top tabs. Because what you're asking people to do here is not re-learn the fundamentals of web browsing, you're asking them to take what they already know and augment it with AI. The fact that a lot of what is working in these early days of AI sort of *looks like* paradigms we already know doesn't seem like an accident. From ChatGPT – which looks like, yes, chat – on down, what's old is new again, at least for now. And so Dia is essentially Chrome + AI. But wait, doesn't Chrome itself already have AI baked in? Yes, [Google is testing natively integrating Gemini](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) into the browser in the beta channels of Chrome itself right now. I'm pretty surprised by this given all the antitrust action currently surrounding the company – [and Chrome itself](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/). But it highlights just how seriously Google is taking the AI threat – and undoubtedly how much they believe in the promise of the technology. That said, Gemini in Chrome is comically clunky right now. It feels tacked on because it's nearly literally tacked on. It's this weird overlay thing that feels far more like a third-party extension than a part of the browser. Worse, it's slow. It's not a good product at the moment. But again, it's in beta. Then again, Dia is also in beta. And it *is* a good product right now. They're using Google's strength against them. Because Chrome has *three billion-plus users*, they can't fundamentally change the browser overnight with an update. They have to tack things on and hope they don't annoy too many current users. With Dia, The Browser Company has a clean slate to do as they wish. The fact that they seemingly have better product designers helps too. It's interesting, you could basically just use Dia as a slightly cleaner-looking version of Chrome – there's noticeably less toolbar cruft – and never touch the AI elements, and I assume plenty of people would be perfectly happy with that. But, of course, no one is going to do that. Nor should The Browser Company want that. If Dia is going to succeed, it will be because of AI. As such, they're now in a foot race. As mentioned, Google is sort of jogging at the moment, but they sort of have to given those three billion-plus users and the DoJ situation. Basically every other browser is now dabbling in some level of AI as well. But again, most of those are legacy players where AI is getting tacked on. The far more interesting ones are the browsers being built from the ground-up for this world. So I would [expect Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/ai-web-browser/) and [yes, OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/) to be Dia's main competition here. Some people are [testing Perplexity's "Comet" browser](https://spyglass.org/perplexity-comet-ai-web-browser/) at the moment and it will probably be released in some sort of open beta test relatively [soon](https://www.perplexity.ai/comet?ref=spyglass.org). No one knows the details about what OpenAI is cooking up, but they're clearly doing something behind-the-scenes simply based on some hires they've made. And the fact that they've made it clear [they'd want to acquire Chrome](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/) if the government makes Google sell it off. I don't believe that's going to happen and [even if it did](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/), I don't think there's anyway OpenAI would be allowed to buy it as that would essentially be the government passing a crown from one king to the next. (Not to mention the fact that I have to imagine [Google would ask for something like $100B](https://spyglass.org/chrome-is-worth-100b-to-google/) to part ways with a product that is extremely valuable to them, but less so to anyone else given [the business realities of web search](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/).) But also, anyone who uses Dia should see why all of these players will build their own browsers. Extensions aren't going to be good enough here, you have to go deeper to fully control the experience and have full vision into what's going on in that browser. If that sounds scary as an end-user, it honestly sort of is! You're placing a lot of trust – and data – in the hands of whomever is building your browser. That's undoubtedly a case that Google is going to make against the upstarts. But it's also the argument that they're going to use against Google... ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-25-at-8.53.25---PM.png) I realize I'm 1,200 words into this and haven't really said what you can do with AI inside of Dia. But honestly, that's almost secondary at this point. It's early days and a lot of functionality is still being built (and seemingly dreamed up). What you can do right now is have an AI chatbot deeply integrated into your browsing experience. It's right there on the righthand side of every page you visit, built into yes, the chrome. So instead of copying and pasting a link into ChatGPT or your AI tool of choice and then asking a question, it saves you that step. And, more powerfully, it allows you to query every tab you have open all at once to cross reference. It's the kind of stuff that's almost too obvious and so you only start really utilizing it when you remember that you can. Or, at least, that's how I've slowly but surely been building it into my workflows. I now often ask for summaries of longer news items I'm reading. And I'll dive deeper into various topics without leaving the tab(s). Again, obvious stuff, but profound in how seamless it is to do without, say, switching over to the ChatGPT tab. And while Dia isn't yet going down the path of more "agentic" work, it's obviously just sitting right there. OpenAI's 'Operator' has [made this abundantly clear](https://spyglass.org/openai-web-browser/) – by leveraging their own custom Chrome as well, no less (albeit in the cloud). Such use cases are clearly going to be a key in wanting to own and operate the browser. But ChatGPT also has native apps, of course. As do others like Perplexity and Claude. Those can be powerful in different ways because they live outside of the browser. But similar to owning the browser experience, one assumes that at some point the OS makers will have an advantage here as well. To their credit, Microsoft [recognized this almost immediately](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-apple/) – and then immediately stepped on a big old rake in the form of their 'Recall' feature, which as it turns out was [a security nightmare](https://spyglass.org/windows-ai-recall-security/). To the point where they [had to pull it](https://spyglass.org/total-recall-microsoft/) and go back to the drawing board (it's back now, finally, but one has to wonder how much trust Microsoft killed with their botched roll out.) Apple should get around to adding such features in 2035 – which I can now tell you will be in macOS 36, thanks to [their recent naming scheme change](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/). So there's that. But really, Apple should probably partner will someone to bake some level of AI into macOS before Siri is ready to do so. The new Spotlight in macOS 26 seems impressive, imagine if it was a full-on AI assistant... Google can and will bake Gemini into ChromeOS of course. But it will face the same issues as with Chrome. Still, if Gemini continues [on its current path](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) and gets good enough, it could be a reason for people [other than students](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/) and/or budget-oriented shoppers to buy Chromebooks. Microsoft and Apple (and Dell, HP, etc) should probably keep their eye on that too. Anyway, back to the browser. While it's nice to have the native ChatGPT app, the truth is that 90%+ of what I do is in a web browser. And so it's more convenient to have the AI tools directly baked into it for all the obvious reasons stated above. At the same time, Dia hasn't negated my usage of other AI services, because for one thing, ChatGPT remains far better at most tasks. Case in point: when I asked Dia which AI models it was powered by, it gave me a completely wrong answer, thinking I was talking about a text-to-speech model with the same name by Nari Labs. But when I asked ChatGPT, it immediately knew what I meant and gave me the correct answer – which, humorously, is primarily GPT-4o! But Dia is using some special sauce behind the scenes to meld models together, including, it seems, Gemini Flash. To be clear, for most queries I've tried, Dia seems to work well – or I wouldn't use it! – but again, it's not as good as going direct, as it were. At least not yet. But the fact that they can merge models together and [hide that complexity](https://spyglass.org/chatgpt-ai-ui/) for end users seems like a huge potential strength here. And one that could help them combat, say, OpenAI's browser (which presumably will not use Google's models!). Anyway, it's early days. But Dia shows an obvious glimpse of what's to come for the web browser. To the point where I almost wonder if Apple isn't going to be at a disadvantage because they completely lock-down browser development on iOS/iPadOS. While they have been able to get away with forcing everyone to use Safari (or basically a wrapper around Safari) on their devices, AI could change that equation. I have to imagine people are going to want the same AI-native browsing experience on mobile as they have on their desktop after getting used to this. So either Apple will have to open such development up more than they have, or they'll have to lead with Safari here. And... [I'm not holding my breath on that one!](https://spyglass.org/ipados-safari/) Another related point is the notion of "memory" for all these products. It's a recent addition to Dia and it could end up being crucial when consumers decide which product to go with. [As I've written about before](https://spyglass.org/ai-distant-memory/), I'm wary of the "old school" players like Google and Meta using actually old memories – aka data – from a decade or two ago in these products – and you could easily see how it could (and undoubtedly will) backfire – but OpenAI is positioned well here, obviously. But Dia is here first. And it's good. I still miss some things about Arc – mostly the "Little Arc" windows, to be honest – but the AI trade-offs as I work them into my workflow are starting to make it worth the switch. And again, it's just so obvious that this is at least directionally the way things are heading. Let the new browser wars begin. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-25-at-8.57.38---PM.png) --- Since the Dia beta is still gated, the link below is my personal one good for **five* invites (to be clear, I get nothing for sharing this)... ~~****UPDATE: Those went fast. Will post a new link when I get more!**~~ ****UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: I'm told the link has been topped up with a bunch more passes to get access thanks to the Dia team...** [Your friend is inviting you to the Dia beta!Dia is the AI browser that’s always up to speed. No more attaching or copy pasting — if it’s in your tabs, Dia already knows.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-30.png)Dia Browser![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/67301df00ffe6585307824399f44a3cf640afc9f-1200x630.png)](https://diabrowser.com/invite/8MH8S8?ref=spyglass.org) --- **Update July 10, 2025**: And here come the other entrants... [Escalated, the AI Browser Wars Have – QuicklyRight after Dia, Perplexity’s Comet is here – with OpenAI inbound…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/BlueRedSpy-copy-23.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_war_between_web_browsers_cartoon_--ar_43_--v_7_379532db-55ed-4ac8-a27e-7639745058b4_3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-browser-wars-openai-perplexity/) --- 👇 ****Previously on Spyglass...** [Apple Lives Long Enough to Become the Ad VillainApple pushes too far in their need for ‘F1’ to be a hit…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1303.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/9i8yx95v3gyc1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/) [Whittling Down Apple’s Big AI M&A OptionsI’ll bring my list of five down to four…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1304.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) [Does Emo AI Dream of Mundane Tasks?Is an emotional Alexa setting our timers really what we want here?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1305.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_android_dreaming_of_setting_a_timer_--ar_43_--v_7_aec1a077-8086-4966-8bb3-7d533ee2d21f_0-3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/) ### Apple Lives Long Enough to Become the Ad Villain URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-push-ads/ Last updated: 2025-07-23T14:37:52.000Z Look Apple, we get it. You really, really, really, really want *F1* to be a hit. And after a series of feature film flops, you really *need* it to be to maintain [any level of credibility](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) in the space.[1](#one) The Apple TV+ shows have been, for the most part, [great](https://spyglass.org/its-not-tv-its-apple-tv-plus/). The movies, [pretty](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) [much](https://spyglass.org/the-gorge-apple-tv/) [the](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/) [opposite](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/). That's obviously somewhat subjective, but it also matters for things like word-of-mouth. And that matters more than it normally would for Apple's movies because [they've inexplicably been so bad at marketing them](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/). Apple! Bad at marketing! I know! Movie marketing, as it turns out, is a different beast than iPhone marketing. (And [even there](https://spyglass.org/crush-with-i-liner/), Apple has been [stumbling of late](https://www.theverge.com/news/691113/apple-pulling-ads-parent-presentation?ref=spyglass.org).) So they've clearly gone back to the drawing board for *F1*. WWDC was essentially a giant ad for the film.[2](#two) I'm not sure how scalable that marketing is, but it allowed them to piggyback on [the news](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) ([and non-news](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/)) out of the event. And now they're trying something else. From [Sarah Perez at *TechCrunch*](https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/24/iphone-customers-upset-by-apple-wallet-ad-pushing-f1-movie/?ref=spyglass.org): > Apple customers aren’t thrilled they’re getting an ad from the Apple Wallet app promoting the tech giant’s original film “F1 the Movie.” [Across](https://x.com/ParkerOrtolani/status/1937551035825807545?ref=spyglass.org) [social](https://www.reddit.com/r/AppleWallet/comments/1ljbjrs/how%5Fdo%5Fi%5Fturn%5Fthis%5Foff?ref=spyglass.org) [media](https://www.reddit.com/r/ios/comments/1ljd94e/disable%5Ffandango%5Fad%5Ffrom%5Fapple%5Fpay/?ref=spyglass.org), iPhone owners are complaining that their Wallet app sent out a push notification offering a $10 discount at Fandango for anyone buying two or more tickets to the film. Yes, Apple pushed an ad to every iPhone user.[3](#three) Millions and millions and millions of people got served an ad all at once. From Apple. Promoting an Apple movie. And promoting Apple Pay (and their partner Fandango). From the Wallet app. This is not the first time Apple has dabbled in promotion for Apple Pay and their partners, of course. But it is the first time they're hitting this trifecta: using their device to push their service *and their movie*. It's a bit much. But it's also just a push notification (and a notice in the Wallet app), you can just shoo it away, right? Sure, but there's also clearly a reason why this backlash keeps bubbling up. [As I wrote last night](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1937604365541417249?ref=spyglass.org) (referencing [the most famous line](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WfRcnF4iZI&ref=spyglass.org) [written by Jonathan Nolan](https://spyglass.org/jonathan-nolan-fallout/)): **You either die ranting against inserting ads or live long enough to start inserting ads.** [Warner Crocker made a similar point](https://warnercrocker.com/2025/06/24/is-apples-f1-push-ad-enshittification-or-just-shitty/?ref=spyglass.org) in highlighting what's going on here: > My grandfather used to say that “a weed is anything that grows where you don’t want it to.” Most of today’s advertising certainly feels weed like. And it keeps getting worse, especially when pushed at us from sources we don’t expect it from. Amazon we expect this from. Apple not so much. As he notes, there's nothing inherently wrong with advertising itself. In the best cases, it can actually be useful or even a form of art. The problem is the old "when you give a mouse a cookie" parable. You start to make some money and you keep going. But Apple has a different problem which is actually tied to another one of the problems that they've had of late. Apple has spent the past couple of decades railing against ad-based business models. And now, well, they're doing ads. Granted, it's to sell their own products. But again, they're doing ads outside of this as well. With Apple Pay. [With Apple News](https://spyglass.org/apples-ad-ramp/). Perhaps some day [with Apple Maps](https://mgs.blog/apple-to-start-injecting-more-ads-into-your-iphone-c47339eec09a?ref=spyglass.org). Given [how vital](https://spyglass.org/apple-antitrust-fight/) the 'Services' business is now to Apple's overall growth story, I'd bet a lot of money [we're going to see this continuing to ramp](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/). Apple must be looking at the businesses Amazon and Netflix [have now built](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/) from scratch here with revenue envy. But again, the problem is their previous rhetoric against this general business. One imagines that they'll try to use the "intrusive" and "personal data" distinction, but those are semantic lines that will fade eventually. If Apple does indeed keep pushing more into ads, they'll also keep doing things to make those ads more effective. They already failed in the space once with '[iAd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAd?ref=spyglass.org)', and much as with *F1* itself, they can't afford to fail again. If and when Tim Cook is [no longer CEO](https://spyglass.org/apple-succession-ternus-cook/), that could be the perfect timing to fully revisit previously precious stances... For now, we just have the scent of hypocrisy and the appearance of greed with these ads. Again, I'm not sure it's the latter – I think they just really, really, *really* want and need *F1* to be a hit and are pulling out every advertising stop that they can, including on their own properties. But it's no less hypocritical. And it doesn't help that it reminds people of when Apple [automatically shoved a U2 album](https://fortune.com/2014/10/09/81-million-people-u2-album-apple/?ref=spyglass.org) into everyone's iPhone. As a wise old man (not Bono) once said – to keep the movies references going – ["with great power, comes great responsibility."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guuYU74wU70&ref=spyglass.org) People pay a lot of money for these devices from Apple. And part of the implicit bargain is that they won't have adware or ads themselves shoved at them in every direction. Again, that's been morphing over time. Businesses are gonna business. **One more thing:** as alluded to above, my mind is drawn elsewhere with this story as well. Apple spent years railing against "vaporware" being touted by their competition and then [did the same thing](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) last WWDC with Apple Intelligence. Yes, they take issue with [that categorization](https://daringfireball.net/2025/03/something%5Fis%5Frotten%5Fin%5Fthe%5Fstate%5Fof%5Fcupertino?ref=spyglass.org), which is [undoubtedly why](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) they [iced out John Gruber at WWDC this year](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/). But he's [hardly the only one saying it](https://www.economist.com/business/2025/06/08/can-tim-cook-stop-apple-going-the-same-way-as-nokia?ref=spyglass.org). And for good reason. Again, Apple is trying to fall back on semantics, but if you have to do that, you've already lost. Vaporware is vaporware until you ship it. Apple users and enthusiasts have been trained over the years to believe that Apple would never dabble in such things. And now they have. Just as we've been taught that Apple would never stoop to intrusive ads in their user experience. And now they have. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/Apple-Wallet-Ads.jpg) via [**MacRumors*](https://www.macrumors.com/2025/06/24/apple-wallet-notification-f1-movie-ad/?ref=spyglass.org) --- **Update June 26, 2025**: One thing I meant to include in the above and which [Wesley Hilliard reminds me today](https://me.dm/@HilliTech@techhub.social/114746602000064349?ref=spyglass.org): there's apparently a setting in iOS 26 to turn such promotional push notifications off. Granted, we're only on the second dev build of that OS and there is no such mechanism in the current builds of iOS so yeah, pretty much everyone got this. But still, Apple is at least giving us an off-ramp eventually, it seems (though yes, they'll be on by default). --- **Update June 26, 2025**: Some further thoughts on the prospects for *F1*... [Apple’s Pitt StopThe drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1326.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/f1-movie_review_1750832557353_1750832562273-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office/) --- **Update June 29\. 2025**: And yet more thoughts after a successful first weekend... [Apple Finally Has a Hit Movie, But at What Cost?I mean that both literally and figuratively as ‘F1’ was beyond expensive to make and beyond in-your-face to market![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1327.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/CEX6XFSWNZLNFHDIVMV3YJEEFQ-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/apple-f1-box-office-not-so-fast/) --- 👇 ****Previously, on Spyglass...** [Apple Adds ‘Apple Ads’It’s inevitable that Apple pushes more fully into advertising eventually…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1300.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_newspaper_advertisement_with_a_big_Apple_logo_on_it_-_31ba7e0c-e2e9-4bee-b962-8caec9e81a91_1-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-adds-apple-ads/) [Liquid GlasslightingThere are no issues with AI within Apple, why do you ask?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1301.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_gaslight_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--v_7_bda60a1d-710e-4aa9-8ff5-44da25df4173_1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) [The Apple Car May Have Flopped, Apple’s Car Movie Should NotIt’s just a teaser trailer, but ‘F1’ looks great.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1302.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-07-07-at-9.28.22-PM-1-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) --- 1 For the record, I do think *F1* will end up being Apple's first hit movie — [which I've been saying from the get-go](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) – but beyond the advertising, that's mostly because by most accounts so far, it's actually good. 2 Don't forget [the Tim Cook magazine photoshoot](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166065880/tim-cook-reveals-apples-vision-for-movies-and-tv?ref=spyglass.org) as well for the film. So hot right now. 3 Well, at least those in the US – though I got it as well in the UK (though that may be because my account is still tied to my US account). ### Whittling Down Apple's Big AI M&A Options URL: https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/ Last updated: 2025-07-23T14:37:32.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-1.png) In [his newsletter this week](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-22/will-apple-buy-an-ai-company-apple-takes-a-close-look-at-acquiring-perplexity-mc7m98q9?cmpid=BBD062225%5FPOWERON&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fterm=250622&utm%5Fcampaign=poweron), Mark Gurman throws out the following eight names for would-be M&A for Apple with regard to AI: - OpenAI - Anthropic - Perplexity - Thinking Machine Labs - Cohere - Sierra - Databricks - Mistral I'll just point out that [last March, I made the case for four of five such companies](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/): - Anthropic - Perplexity - Mistral - Safe Superintelligence - Thinking Machine Labs I'm biased, but my list is still better all these months later (and that's even though I should be biased in the *other way*, since my wife and I are investors in [Sierra](https://sierra.ai/?ref=spyglass.org) and she advises the company!). I just think my list is more drilled in to what Apple actually needs and how they might be thinking about this, as [I discussed with John Gruber for his *Talk Show* podcast](https://daringfireball.net/thetalkshow/2025/03/23/ep-419?ref=spyglass.org) at the time. And now the actual reporting – much of it by Gurman himself – has proven that out thus far. To that end, the only real bit of new actual news in this report is the following: > Separately, Apple met earlier this year with Mira Murati — the former chief technology officer of OpenAI — to discuss a potential deal for her new AI startup, Thinking Machines Lab. The talks never progressed to an advanced stage. This is not surprising given that we also now know that [Meta spoke with Murati](https://www.theverge.com/command-line-newsletter/690720/meta-buy-thinking-machines-perplexity-safe-superintelligence?ref=spyglass.org) as well as a part of [Mark Zuckerberg trying to build his new 'Superintelligence' Dream](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) Team. But back in March, I made the following case: > **Thinking Machines** – The newest company of the bunch was started after [Mira Murati left OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-chaos/) and we've subsequently been seeing a lot of talent [quickly join her](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-008/#:~:text=Definitely%20not%20coming%20back%3F%20Mira%20Murati%2C%20who%20keeps%20siphoning%20off%20OpenAI%20talent%20to%20her%20new%20company%2C%20whatever%20it%20may%20be...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). It was [reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/can-greg-brockman-find-a-future-back-at-openai?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir) that her exit was [perhaps a reason](https://spyglass.org/off-to-the-ai-races/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Can%20Greg,...%20%5BInformation%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) why Apple ended up [not making an investment in OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/apple-backs-out-openai-investment/) since she was a key point person for the company, so is it possible that translates directly into a new deal here? Either an investment or an acquisition? The company clearly doesn't have a product yet, but Apple needs talent more than it needs any product. And there's presumably a price that could work here for both sides. The company is said to be raising their "seed" round at [a $9B valuation](https://www.businessinsider.com/mira-murati-new-startup-thinking-machine-labs-valuation-2025-2?ref=spyglass.org). And given that they're not even six months old, it might take a $20B - $30B+ offer to get them to build within Apple... That seed round is now complete. [$2B raised](https://www.ft.com/content/9edc67e6-96a9-4d2b-820d-57bc1279e358?ref=spyglass.org) – perhaps the largest "seed" ever – at a $10B valuation. And it comes with [some truly incredible levels of control for Murati](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/162705846/thinking-machines-lab-ceo-has-unusual-control?ref=spyglass.org), who undoubtedly learned some vital lessons from her time at OpenAI... This price, while obviously outlandish for a company still in the planning stages for their actual products, still wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for Apple. But just as with Perplexity, it would undoubtedly take an offer that's an order of magnitude more than any deal they've ever done... Speaking of Perplexity, [Gurman reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/apple-executives-have-held-internal-talks-about-buying-ai-startup-perplexity?ref=spyglass.org) at the end of last week on those talks and I extended [my own thoughts on the matter here](https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/). I've [long thought](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) Perplexity would be the most obvious and perhaps most seamless target for Apple – and in part because it's not just about AI, but also the overall *Search* story here as well. Something that will be vital [if/when](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) the Google Search deal is altered. Which led to [my closing remarks last January](https://spyglass.org/appl/): > Anyway, [Apple should probably just buy Perplexity](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/)? Fast-forward back to my case last March > **Perplexity** – This would also be insanely expensive for Apple, as this company is now [said to be raising at an $18B valuation](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-049/#:~:text=Perplexity%20is%20said,sayin...%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) – so we're perhaps talking about a deal in the $40B - $50B range to entice everyone to do it. But beyond their [good product chops](https://spyglass.org/perplexity-comet-ai-web-browser/) with AI, this company obviously has [focused on search](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) from the get-go and that could be extra useful for Apple if and when [the Google Search default deal goes away](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/). My hold up, beyond price, is that the founder has been a bit outspoken and controversial in ways that I think [range from stepping-in-it](https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2024/06/11/why-perplexitys-cynical-theft-represents-everything-that-could-go-wrong-with-ai/?ref=spyglass.org) to [somewhat understandable](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/perplexity-ai-ceo-aravind-srinivas-challenges-elon-musk-stop-me-if-you-can-7655608?ref=spyglass.org) for a company in this space [trying to make waves](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-049/#:~:text=They%20also%20continue%20to%20want%20to%20buy%20TikTok.%20But%20they%27ll%20need%20to%20raise%20a%20lot%20more%20than%20%24500M%20%2D%20%241B%20in%20order%20to%20do%20that.%20Also%2C%20get%20in%20line...%20the%20potential%20PE%20deals%20alongside%20Oracle%20remain%20far%20more%20likely.%20But%20who%20knows%20%E2%80%93%20whatever%20makes%20for%20the%20best%20game%20show.%20%5BVerge%5D). Apple, of course, wouldn't necessarily appreciate that gumption, internally. The valuation ended up coming in at $14B. And that perhaps makes a "mere" $30B deal – again, an order of magnitude larger than the Beats deal a decade ago – still within the realm of possibility. We also now know Eddy Cue has taken a liking to the company – [as he said as much in court under oath!](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) Still, as I laid out last week, I think a partnership here is more likely than an acquisition – and [Alex Kantrowitz and I discussed](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) this topic [on his *Big Technology Podcast*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-jhzwOQBTw&t=2153s&ref=spyglass.org) a couple weeks ago. Beyond the potential personality clashes, [the Samsung deal](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/) seems like a hurdle... Still, Perplexity was the name I threw out there in [my predictions for 2025](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) – alongside Mistral. Here's what Gurman had to say about that one: > Unlike the others, Mistral would give Apple a serious leg up in building cutting-edge foundation models. Its high-performance models are widely respected for their efficiency and speed — ideal for running on devices or in the cloud. I don't know about a "leg up", but it would get them closer to OpenAI, Google, etc. And it would be "open source" work. And [a lot of their talent comes from](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/meta-restructures-ai-team-thats-killing-it?ref=spyglass.org) the team that started the Llama work for Meta, but clearly got fed up and left, leading to Meta's current AI situation... But again, I think my case here makes more sense: > **Mistral** – The great European hope also lacks some of the massive corporate backing of the others (though [they have Microsoft](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/26/microsoft-invests-in-europes-mistral-ai-to-expand-beyond-openai.html?ref=spyglass.org) and a few others large players with smaller stakes). More importantly, they seemingly lack some of the traction of the other major players right now. Obviously, they've been going about building [a bit differently](https://fortune.com/2025/03/20/mistral-ai-ceo-mensch-denies-ipo-rumors-doubles-down-on-open-source-strategy-european-champion/?ref=spyglass.org), being more in line [with open source](https://venturebeat.com/ai/mistral-ai-drops-new-open-source-model-that-outperforms-gpt-4o-mini-with-fraction-of-parameters/?ref=spyglass.org) than the others. And this could be an interesting use of any cash Apple has overseas. The last round [valued Mistral north of $6B](https://www.ft.com/content/7a70a8a6-4a2a-47c5-8483-d0b829f32ae6?ref=spyglass.org), so a deal would probably need to be in the $15B+ range. Decidedly doable. Then again, Apple has basically been at war with the EU – [it may or may not be thawing with a regime change](https://spyglass.org/eu-big-tech-threats/) – and it's not clear if such a deal would help or hurt that relationship. Or if the EU would ever dare bless it, of course... They're [clearly also fundraising again right now](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-wwdc-trapped-in-frozen-liquid?utm%5Fsource=publication-search#:~:text=In%20other%20AI%20revenue%20news%2C%20it%20sounds%20like%20Mistral%20is%20on%20track%20to%20pass%20%24100M%20after%20a%20handful%20of%20large%20deals%20out%20of%20Europe%2C%20where%20companies%20perhaps%20don%E2%80%99t%20just%20want%20to%20rely%20solely%20on%20the%20US%20players.%20Surely%20such%20a%20data%20point%20being%20out%20there%20will%20help%20them%20with%20a%20new%20%241B%20fundraise%E2%80%A6%20%5BFT%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D), on the heels of some [big EU deals](https://www.ft.com/content/65f79839-d637-48a7-a0f2-3fab8952b315?ref=spyglass.org). And they're seemingly in a good spot from that perspective with the rest of the world – and Europe in particular – [worried about American dominance in AI](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/technology/us-tech-europe-microsoft-trump-icc.html?ref=spyglass.org). Again, that probably speaks to why Apple wouldn't be *allowed* to buy them... It's interesting that Gurman doesn't mention Safe Superintelligence here – perhaps because it's [already valued at $32B](https://spyglass.org/the/). But he himself has noted that Apple has tried to convince co-founder and CEO Daniel Gross to come back to Apple rather than go to Meta in [another wild "hackquistion"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/). While Meta is ["hackquiring" Gross' VC fund](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/), what if Apple "hackquired" his AI startup and got a guy named Ilya Sutskever in the process? Would Sutskever ever agree to that? No idea. But certainly Apple has to be more appealing to him than Meta would be. And if he needs to hitch his company to a cash wagon... There are worse ideas is all I'm saying. Speaking of cash wagons, while Gurman dismissed Anthropic (and OpenAI) as being too expensive for Apple – undoubtedly true, certainly with OpenAI, which is why I never brought them up in my piece, despite their partnership with Apple – the bigger barrier might be the fact that [Amazon and Google own something just shy of 40% of the company](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/). Said another way, Anthropic already [hitched their wagon](https://spyglass.org/anthropic-golden-fork-amazon/) to a cash partner. As did OpenAI with Microsoft, [until](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) that fell apart in ([ongoing](https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/)) [spectacular fashion](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/), so now it's largely [in the hands of SoftBank](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/). But yes, I continue to think that one of the following would be the most interesting deal for Apple to do: - Perplexity - Mistral - Safe Superintelligence - Thinking Machine Labs Remember, it's not just about product – as the last two, as far as I know, don't yet have any – it's about talent and showcasing to the market that Apple is serious about AI. I don't think they need to "win it" – certainly there's [a case to be made for partnering](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/) right now, just as [they're doing with OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/), and soon perhaps Google [and Anthropic as well](https://spyglass.org/apple-anthropic-xcode-coding/). I just think they need to be some level of player here. And I don't think they want to leave themselves open to be fully at the whims of others – especially if those others are [largely aligned with rivals](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/)... That's the real M&A case. ### Pixar Peters Out URL: https://spyglass.org/pixar-box-office-fail/ Last updated: 2025-07-22T06:49:45.000Z [ With ‘Elio,’ Pixar Has Its Worst Box Office Opening Ever The original space adventure sold about $21 million in tickets at domestic theaters from Thursday night through Sunday, putting new pressure on the once-unstoppable studio. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) The New York Times Brooks Barnes ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/06/22/multimedia/22biz-boxoffice-1-tmcl/22biz-boxoffice-1-tmcl-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/elio-pixar-box-office.html?ref=spyglass.org) The tracking was not looking good for this movie, but this is bad, really bad: > But the turnout for “Elio” was worse — much worse — than even Pixar had expected. The film, which cost at least $250 million to make and market, collected an estimated $21 million from Thursday evening through Sunday at theaters in the United States and Canada, according to Comscore, which compiles box office data. > > It was Pixar’s worst opening-weekend result ever. The previous bottom was “Elemental,” which arrived to $30 million in 2023. > > A month ago, when the “Elio” marketing campaign began to hit high gear, Pixar and its corporate owner, Disney, had hoped that “Elio” would, in the worst-case scenario, match the “Elemental” number. Instead, it fell 30 percent short. The sad thing here is that the movie is apparently good.[1](#one) It would be one thing if *Elio* was bad, but critics seem to [like it](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/elio/?ref=spyglass.org) and audiences seem to [*love* it](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/elio?ref=spyglass.org) – especially the most important audience for this fare: [kids](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/elio-pixar-worst-box-office-opening-28-years-later-1236296431/?ref=spyglass.org). So what gives? I think, sadly, this is just the new way of things. Barnes sort of hits on it when noting that one reason why sequels and remakes do so well relative to original content is that parents can trust that their money will be well-spent. Tangential to that is the notion that there's simply so much to watch at home that a movie simply must be "special" to get someone – let alone a family – out of the house to see it. And again, sequels/remakes have [a clear advantage here](https://spyglass.org/inside-out-2-box-office/). Which points to a path forward, which [I've been harping on for a while](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/), but this box office result underscores it: start a franchise as a streaming property and then "graduate" the sequel to cinemas if/when it does well.[2](#two) On one hand, this is depressing as it means that mainly sequels/remakes would populate the box office. On the other, it's reality. Unless a movie has a massive current star – and with animated movies, that obviously matters far less, if at all – it's unlikely to move the box office needle. Yes, there is the occasional break out, and that's great – studios should track for "the *Anyone But You* effect", where Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell are garnering a ton of online buzz tangential at best to the actual movie and plan accordingly. But for the most part, new IP starts on streaming to see if it can take hold. By the way, there's also nothing stopping studios from going to theaters *after* something starts to take hold on streaming... Hollywood needs to start thinking more [outside of the typical boxes](https://500ish.com/a-game-of-screens-6e0fad440fe?ref=spyglass.org) (release windows).[3](#three) Okay, that all seemingly makes sense. Again, no one in Hollywood wants to hear it because it sounds like the end of (most) new IP in cinemas. But I'm mainly talking about big studio/big budget productions. For more bespoke fare with reasonable budgets and release strategies, there's certainly an argument to be made that there's never been a better time to be making movies. There are so many technological tools now to make the art form far more accessible than it has ever been. (More on this in a minute.) [Still, it's hard. Even with stars. Even when the movie is good!](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) If you can't spend $100M to market a movie, it requires almost precision-like marketing. [Even Apple keeps failing at this. Apple!](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) Again, there are and should be plenty of exceptions here – see: *Sinners* for one even [more recent example](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-052-monopoly-pieces/#:~:text=%F0%9F%8E%9E%EF%B8%8F%20%E2%80%98Sinners%E2%80%99%20Is,talent%3F%20%5BNYT%5D) that clearly tapped into something. But all of this also elevates the status of cinemas even higher as the "major leagues" of film, as it were. Once IP proves itself in the minors, it's called up... The flaw in my strategy for (major) studios going forward is the fact that *Elio cost $250M to make (including marketing)*. Can anyone, even Disney, really afford to spend that much money on a movie that's going straight-to-streaming? No. Obviously not. They need to bring the budget for such a production down, which again will be hard for Hollywood, and certainly creatives to hear: > The problem for Pixar is that its originals remain wildly expensive. “Ruby Gillman” and “Migration” each cost 50 percent less than “Elio” did. (Pixar movies are still produced entirely in the United States, increasing labor costs. Some other studios have started to rely on overseas production.) In other words, if Disney/Pixar outsourced the film oversees, they could likely get it done at a much smaller price point. They would certainly argue that it wouldn't be as good – and they're undoubtedly right – but at some point, it's simply a cost/benefit equation. Words that will make the collective industry want to vomit. And that's *before* AI enters the equation, which [the mere mention of](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-already-losing-the-plot-with-ai-hysteria/) will [turn the vomiting](https://spyglass.org/ai-vs-hollywood-james-cameron/) into [full-on norovirus](https://spyglass.org/hollywood-and-ai-fight/). But these changes are coming, and so it's silly to just bury your head in the sand and hope that they don't. Better for all the parties to talk and try to [work together](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) on solutions here. A movie like *Elio* simply cannot cost $250M to make in 2025\. Maybe the sequel can if it's a huge success on streaming! But there's no guarantees here anymore – even for the Pixar name and brand, sadly. [Of Tadpoles and TentpolesA 10 step plan to save the movie theater business![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1291.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Inside-Out-2-Online-Use-4-6.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/movie-theaters-are-dying/) [Many People Sit Inside to See ‘Inside Out 2’Pixar’s box office results look less emo this time…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1294.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Inside-Out-2-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/inside-out-2-box-office/) [Hollywood’s ‘Black Bag’ ProblemWhen it comes to more subtle adult fare, good luck…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1292.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1536e092ea651dbc75bf36190c555ea238-black-bag.rhorizontal.w700-1-2.webp)](https://spyglass.org/hollywoods-black-bag-problem/) [People at a PremiumAI will change Hollywood -- for the better![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1295.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MV5BOGIyMWNmZjItN2Q4NS00NzY5LWEzOTMtMjA4YzQ1YTc2ZjJiXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyNDk2MjQ4Mzk@._V1_-9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/ai-content-elevates-human-value/) [Love Cinemas, ActuallySaving movie theaters needs to be about more than nostalgia…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1293.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Hugh-Grant-Picturehouse-1-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/four-weddings-and-a-funeral-for-fulham-picture-house/) --- 1 There was clearly [an issue with the original director of the movie](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/movies/elio-directing-credits.html?ref=spyglass.org), who had to be pulled off. 2 Or, by the way, [you can start it as a video game or some other format](https://spyglass.org/a-minecraft-movie-box-office/)! 3 Also Disney has a huge potential advantage here thanks to the (relative) strength of Disney+. They should leverage it! ### Apple Ponders Perplexity URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-ponders-perplexity/ Last updated: 2025-06-23T11:27:40.000Z [Apple Executives Have Held Internal Talks About Buying AI Startup PerplexityApple Inc. executives have held internal discussions about potentially bidding for artificial intelligence startup Perplexity AI, seeking to address the need for more AI talent and technology.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-17.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-11.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/apple-executives-have-held-internal-talks-about-buying-ai-startup-perplexity?ref=spyglass.org) Well, well, well: > Apple Inc. executives have held internal discussions about potentially bidding for artificial intelligence startup Perplexity AI, seeking to address the need for more AI talent and technology. > > Adrian Perica, the company’s head of mergers and acquisitions, has weighed the idea with services chief Eddy Cue and top AI decision-makers, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The discussions are at an early stage and may not lead to an offer, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. To be clear, it sounds like these are very much just *internal* discussions – i.e. they haven't even broached the topic with Perplexity yet.[1](#one) But yeah, at least thinking about/exploring the notion makes sense – and I'm not just saying that because I've been [saying it](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/)/[predicting it](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) for [months](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-051-happy-thursday/#:~:text=%F0%9F%93%B2%20Perplexity%20AI,anyone!%20%5BBloomberg%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D) and [months](https://spyglass.org/appl/). I'm [hardly alone](https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/why-apple-must-buy-perplexity?ref=spyglass.org). Apple is behind in AI and one way to catch up a bit faster is [through M&A](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/). And Perplexity seemingly has a lot of what Apple would want. And actually, it goes a bit beyond just AI: > Such a deal would help Apple develop an AI-based search engine, part of efforts to cope with the potential loss of a longstanding arrangement with Google. That partnership, which involves making Google the default browser on devices, generates roughly $20 billion a year for Apple — and is now under threat from US antitrust enforcers. If the Google Search deal goes away – [by which I really mean the $20B+ a year payments to Apple from Google goes away](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) – Apple will obviously be more open to looking into other search arrangements. And that's more true than ever before because of [the rise of AI](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/) and the [disruptive effect](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) it's already having on search. [Eddy Cue may have had his own reasons](https://spyglass.org/appl/) for [saying as much on the stand](https://spyglass.org/you-sunk-my-battleship/) during Google's antitrust trial, but that doesn't mean it's not true. One argument against such a deal would obviously be price. Given that Perplexity is currently valued at $14B and that such a deal would clearly require a premium, this would likely require Apple doing a deal that may be *an order of magnitude larger* than the current biggest deal: the $3B deal for Beats just over a decade ago. Another argument against the deal may be co-founder and CEO Aravind Srinivas, who is known to be quite outspoken. [Alex Kantrowitz and I discussed this on his *Big Technology Podcast las week*](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) (about [35 minutes in](https://youtu.be/e-jhzwOQBTw?si=NpIDCzBDCb%5FLOp3l&t=2153&ref=spyglass.org)) – on the topic of yes, if Apple should buy Perplexity. It's hard to fault Srinivas for being so outspoken, he's a startup founder taking on both Big Tech and Big AI – startups with a lot more funding than Perplexity. His job is to get Perplexity's name out there and to recruit, and his tactics seem to be working. That said, it's hard to see someone like that working inside of Apple... But the biggest problem may be the deal Perplexity just struck with Samsung. [This was my exact angle on the news a few weeks back](https://spyglass.org/samsung-perplexity-apple/). All of that may push Apple down a *partnership* path here versus an acquisition: > Apple has also discussed an alternative plan: teaming up with Perplexity instead of buying it. A partnership would involve adding Perplexity as an AI search engine option in Apple’s Safari web browser and integrating it into Siri. > > Apple has met multiple times in recent months with Perplexity, and its AI team has been actively evaluating the technology — a sign that it’s at least considering a close relationship with the company. If Apple were to buy Perplexity, suddenly partners like OpenAI might be a bit more reluctant to play nicely – something we're [immediately seeing as a result](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) of the [Meta/Scale deal](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). So yeah, I'm talking myself out of this one a bit, but that said, if Apple cares just as much about attracting talent, [shifting the culture](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/), changing the [mentality](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) that got them in [this AI mess](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/), *and sending a signal to the market*... Also, they now have to consider the possibility that [Meta is going to buy every AI company](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/no-deal-is-safe-as-meta-furiously?ref=spyglass.org). Including [taking a run at](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/meta-discussed-buying-perplexity-before-investing-in-scale-ai?ref=spyglass.org), of course, Perplexity. **One more thing:** > Apple and Meta have been waging a broader fight for talent. Meta recently engaged in discussions to hire Daniel Gross, the co-founder of AI company Safe Superintelligence Inc. While the discussions between Meta and Gross are advanced, Apple has attempted to persuade him to join it instead. I would love to know what the pitch was from Apple to Gross. Were they also offering to [spend several billion dollars to buy out the stakes in his fund](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/)? And did they also want to bring over his partner (and former GitHub CEO) Nat Friedman? Gross, of course, previously worked at Apple after [they acquired](https://techcrunch.com/2013/10/03/cue-acquired-for-over-40m-likely-by-apple-to-compete-with-google-now/?ref=spyglass.org) his startup Cue and helped them start up their early AI efforts back in the day. His co-founder was Robby Walker, [who has been in the news](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/) of late because he's still at Apple and has [been leading some of the Siri project](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/). Is the pitch to Gross to come reunite with Walker to build AI at the largest consumer company in the world? In a way, it could be [the old Steve Jobs](https://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/11/12/how-steve-jobs-and-bill-gates-inspired-john-sculley-to-pursue-the-noble-cause/?ref=spyglass.org) "do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life or do you want to come with me and change the world?" pitch. It sort of works if you believe social media is this generation's sugary drinks... In the end, I suspect the winning pitch from Meta will be more along the lines of tapping into Logan Roy from *Succession*. ["Money wins."](https://giphy.com/gifs/SuccessionHBO-hbo-succession-successionhbo-mEhyrxDNzGQbGdncfc?ref=spyglass.org) --- **Update June 23, 2025**: Some further Apple AI M&A thoughts... [Whittling Down Apple’s Big AI M&A OptionsI’ll bring my list of five down to four…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1298.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_whittling_down_an_apple_logo_--v_7_f8d19495-b752-4477-a08d-c74d0ecdcafe_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/whittling-down-apples-big-ai-m-a-options/) --- 👇 ****More on such topics...** [10 Big Predictions for 2025One of which may actually happen…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1288.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_happy_2025_--ar_43_--profile_zegoyms_--v_6.1_ac39eaaa-8b05-4b54-9f96-14739040d5b4_3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) [The One AI to Rule Them AllTrying to grok the outlook for general-purpose consumer AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1287.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--82--3-12.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/) [Five “Game Change” AI Deals for AppleA few ideas for how they might (but likely won’t) change the AI equations, fast…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1289.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-25-10.01.19---A-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-person-joyfully-throwing-cash-at-a-large--glowing-Apple-Inc.-logo.-The-person-is-mid-motion-with-arms-extended--and--2-7.webp)](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) --- 1 Which makes this scoop all the more wild. Who on Earth is talking to Gurman about clearly priveledged and obviously secretive conversations between two of the most senior people at Apple? Normally this type of M&A chatter leaks out from lawyers or VCs or other tangential players, but this is seemingly not that. ### Meta Hackquires a VC Fund URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/ Last updated: 2025-07-22T06:48:38.000Z [ Meta in Talks to Hire AI Investors Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross And Partially Buy Out Their Venture Fund... ![](https://ti-assets.theinformation.com/assets/favicon_prod/apple-touch-icon-17b1f49459c7f7c83dc31adcd741f913dce8fd969ac81180d6e67fa24db6694e.png) The Information Kalley Huang and Cory Weinberg ![](https://tii.imgix.net/production/articles/15264/4d186f9a-b985-4406-bfc9-be3c80ea6005.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&auto=format&w=400&dpr=4.5) ](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-talks-hire-former-github-ceo-nat-friedman-daniel-gross-join-ai-efforts?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) Meta may have been late to the "[hackquisition](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/)" market, but give them credit, they're innovating fast. Last week, [the Scale AI deal](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) sort of redefined the market by making every "hackquisition" before it [look more like a "hackquihire"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) by comparison. And today brings a new twist: > Meta Platforms is in advanced talks to hire the prominent artificial intelligence investors Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross to help lead its AI efforts, according to a person familiar with the discussions. As part of those talks, Meta is in discussions about partially buying out Friedman and Gross’ venture capital fund, NFDG, which holds stakes in top AI startups and is worth billions of dollars on paper, the person said. Yes, this would be Meta "hackquiring" not an actual startup, but *a venture fund* that invests in startups. But while the contours change, the main driving force remains the same: for Mark Zuckerberg to bring on board top talent for their AI efforts. No matter the cost. *\[*[*See update below*](#update) *for a fun twist.\]* So how does one "hackquire" a venture fund? Unsurprisingly, it's complicated: > As part of the talks, Meta is discussing buying out a substantial portion of NFDG’s holdings and cashing out the fund’s limited partners in the process, the person familiar with the discussions said. The social media giant will have minority stakes in the startups that NFDG has invested in, which could include SSI, but it will not get information about and control over these startups, the person said. > > Although financial terms of the discussions couldn’t be learned, a partial buyout of the fund could cost more than $1 billion. This sounds like Meta would be acquiring stakes in the fund from the LPs who own them. But presumably far more important would be buying out the General Partner (GP) stakes in the fund as they control (and are technically controlled by) the actual management company. This means buying out the stakes Friedman and Gross own. And this of course makes sense because Meta needs to entice them to walk away from their fund to join Meta, just as they had to entice Alexandr Wang to walk away from Scale AI to join Meta. Usually that involves money. A lot of it. But at least partially cashing out the LPs is important too so they don't try to block such a deal. Buying out venture funds happens from time to time, but it's usually under far different circumstances. Still, the one constant would be lawsuits. When people feel like they gave money for something and the deal was changed under their feet, they tend not to like that. Again, money usually solves it. But that will also lead to an awkward situation, not entirely dissimilar to the Scale issue: Meta will end up owning a bunch of stakes in other, smaller companies in which NFDG invested. Or rather, rights to such stakes, as managed by the fund. That's another complicating element here: it's not like NFDG is going to liquidate their holdings with this deal, seemingly no one would want that. I mean maybe Meta would, but it would be more or less impossible. Perhaps Meta could find another buyer for the stake in the fund they're buying, but again, that would just add another layer of complexity. And like the Scale deal, they probably want to feel like they're getting something (beyond the talent) for all the money... What the government may think about Meta buying stakes in dozens of AI startups in one fell swoop... we'll see! Sure, they'd all be minority stakes, but well, they're always minority stakes! That's the entire point of the "hackquisition" market... **But none of that is even the most awkward part of this deal!** That would be this: > For Gross, the talks with Meta put him in an awkward position with SSI, a startup formed with the goal of building a leading AI company “insulated from short-term commercial pressures.” The startup hasn’t yet launched a product or described in detail what it planned to build. > > Gross’ departure for Meta would damage an important investment for some top venture capital firms. In April, SSI raised $2 billion, at a $32 billion valuation, from investors such as Greenoaks, Andreessen Horowitz and Lightspeed Venture Partners. It has also raised money from Sequoia Capital. SSI is 'Safe Superintelligence', the startup Gross co-founder with one Ilya Sutskever. And the one that yes, [*is currently valued at $32B*](https://spyglass.org/the/) – pre-product. Well, that's a bit unfair because [it's actually not entirely clear](https://spyglass.org/bears-of-seasons/#:~:text=%F0%9F%92%B0%20Safe%20Superintelligence,here...%20%5BReuters%5D) they intend to have an actual product. By at least the early accounts, their main aim is to create "superintelligence" – [the artist formerly known](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/) to some as "AGI" but which now has been [rebranded](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/) to mean something *beyond AGI* since we're apparently close to AGI even [though no one yet](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/) has [an actual definition](https://spyglass.org/agi-definition/) of AGI. [As I wrote – incidentally *exactly* one year ago – upon the formation of SSI](https://spyglass.org/safe-superintelligence-openai/): > I'm reminded of Coca-Cola Classic. That is, the branding the soda company [had to go with](https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/128-years-coca-cola-its-brand-extensions/1298515?ref=spyglass.org) after [the 'New Coke' debacle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New%5FCoke?ref=spyglass.org) in the 1980s to let everyone know that the original product they knew and loved was back. 'Safe Superintelligence' sounds a lot like 'OpenAI Original'. If you've seen the term "superintelligence" in the news recently, it's because that's *also* the goal for this new team Zuck is putting together for Meta. So yes, Gross will be joining a new team that will be racing his old team. [I made the quip last night](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:bqdtwrjvjqldbquxyezad735/post/3lrvw5fomxs2d?ref=spyglass.org) that perhaps the effort should be called "Unsafe Superintelligence" given that it's, [well, Meta](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/). But then I realized that I already made that joke in that post a year ago about OpenAI, for shame. Anyway, what are those SSI investors going to think about this deal?[1](#one) Presumably they care most about Sutskever in this context, but certainly Gross was a key part of that equation and bet as well, he was CEO! And now he no longer will be, it seems. Maybe it gives an opening for [his former employer to swoop in to buy SSI](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/)? Ilya Sutskever inside of Apple would be something else... --- **Update June 20, 2025**: Well now the above makes a bit more sense – *in the sense that Zuckerberg is absolutely ruthless*. [As Kate Rooney reports for *CNBC*](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/19/meta-tried-to-buy-safe-superintelligence-hired-ceo-daniel-gross.html?ref=spyglass.org), the original plan was to "hackquire" Safe Superintelligence itself and/or bring Ilya Sutskever himself on board. When he turned down that offer, Zuck turned to Gross, Rooney reports. Clearly, to get that deal done, Meta had to do this NFDG deal. At least from the outside, this is not the best look for Gross here... --- **Update July 1, 2025**: Mark Zuckerberg has now announced the first batch of hires internally, including Friedman but interestingly, *not* Daniel Gross... [Zuck’s Eleven7 from OpenAI, 2 from Google, 1 from Anthropic, 1 from Sesame... But just as interesting, what’s \*not\* mentioned.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1381.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/16755053_web1_oceans-11-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/zucks-eleven/) --- **Update July 3, 2025**: And sure enough, the Daniel Gross shoe has finally dropped. As it turns out, he *is* joining Meta, [as Shirin Ghaffary and Kurt Wagner report for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/meta-hires-researcher-gross-to-join-new-ai-superintelligence-lab?ref=spyglass.org). And yes, it seems likely that his deal wasn't finalized yet when the others were announced per above (or else Zuckerberg would have announced it, obviously). Though interestingly, Ilya Sutskever, [in commenting on the news](https://x.com/ilyasut/status/1940802278979690613?ref=spyglass.org), noted that Gross technically stopped working for SSI on June 29 – *the day before* Zuck's memo. Perhaps that's just a vesting/leaving issue and he hadn't yet finalized his Meta deal. No word on Gross' deal terms, though he'll apparently be working on "AI products". Imagine that. [Yuliya Chernova of *WSJ* also has](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-offers-to-buy-stake-in-venture-funds-started-by-ai-hires-nat-friedman-and-daniel-gross-cc72ad49?ref=spyglass.org) more details about how Meta is structuring [the "hackquisition" of Gross and Nat Friedman's NFDG fund](https://spyglass.org/meta-hackquires-a-vc-fund/), confirming a lot of what was [previously reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-talks-hire-former-github-ceo-nat-friedman-daniel-gross-join-ai-efforts?ref=spyglass.org&rc=lsmcir). One new key detail: Meta would apparently be paying current book value for the "up to 49%" stake they buy from LPs, meaning a nice, quick and easy 4x return on those positions (while the rest presumably can ride...). With those numbers in mind, we can do some quick and dirty math here. If the $1.1B fund is "about half" deployed – let's call it $500M to make it easy – and the book value of those holdings is up 4x, that's $2B. If Meta is acquiring "up to 49%" – again, let's call it 50% to keep it simple – that's $1B that they're likely paying for the stakes. And it's also stated that the fund won't make new investments, so they're presumably returning that remaining $500M to LPs. So that's $1.5B returned on the $500M invested, with $500M (currently marked up 4x) still riding. A nice, quick and clean return for investors with good upside potential left! Also, assuming Gross and Friedman got a slight premium on the "2 & 20" model, let's guess they have 2.5/25 terms on the fund. That means they would likely get 25% of $500M (the profit of the fund after $500M deployed is fully paid back to LPs, and the unused $500M is returned). That's $62.5M each (minus any carry they gave to others helping with the fund) for a couple years worth of work, not bad. And they still have the upside on the money left riding too – which is now in carry and again, marked up 4x on paper... So that's another $250M worth of carry as it stands right now — each. And presumably Meta added some sweeteners on top of the above to get them to walk away from their fund. A ["*Godfather*" offer](https://spyglass.org/meta-godfather-offer/) perhaps?... And how's this for awkward: that fund's crown jewel? Safe Superintelligence. --- 👇 ****More on the matter...** [‘OpenAI Original’Technically, Ilya Sutskever’s new startup is called ‘Safe Superintelligence’ but come on, this is anti-OpenAI.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1283.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-June-26-Coke-can-with-OpenAI-logo-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/safe-superintelligence-openai/) [The OpenAI ConstellationsThe out-of-this-world funding numbers in OpenAI’s orbit![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1282.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_constellations_in_space_with_money_signs_--ar_21_--prof_21804d63-0790-4c9f-aa93-88c57c811c4c_3-1-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/the/) [Five “Game Change” AI Deals for AppleA few ideas for how they might (but likely won’t) change the AI equations, fast…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1286.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-25-10.01.19---A-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-person-joyfully-throwing-cash-at-a-large--glowing-Apple-Inc.-logo.-The-person-is-mid-motion-with-arms-extended--and--2-6.webp)](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1285.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1284.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) --- 1 I'll just remind everyone that Marc Andreessen, whose fund is a main investor in SSI, remains on the board of Meta... ### Does Emo AI Dream of Mundane Tasks? URL: https://spyglass.org/does-emo-ai-dream-of-mundane-tasks/ Last updated: 2025-07-18T09:03:38.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/mgs22_an_android_dreaming_of_setting_a_timer_--ar_43_--v_7_aec1a077-8086-4966-8bb3-7d533ee2d21f_0-1.png) Lo! A mythical beast! An Alexa+ review! [In the wild](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/)! And it's in *The New York Times* no less! Okay, [technically it's in *Wirecutter*](https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/alexa-plus-gen-ai-preview/?ref=spyglass.org). And technically it's just a *preview*. And there have been a couple of these trickling out ever so slowly. And Amazon now says that [over a million people](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165849677/a-million-people-now-have-alexa?ref=spyglass.org) have access to the service. But, well, only a few such articles have appeared. So that either implies that Amazon is being *very* careful how to dish these out – the first preview/review came from someone the company probably didn't realize was [a *USA Today* columnist](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/tech/gadgets/2025/06/06/early-access-alexa-plus-review/84070217007/?ref=spyglass.org) – or, people just don't really care enough to write about it. Judging from these initial takes, the truth is probably somewhere in between. From these couple previews – because what else do we have to go on? – it sounds like Alexa+ is both pretty conversational, as promised, and pretty buggy, as expected. The reviewers think it's mostly better, but worse at some things mainly because of the bugs. None of it sounds like a slam dunk of an upgrade, at least not yet. And in some ways, you could see how it might be viewed as a *downgrade* by some people. As a recent, perhaps [slightly too glowing profile](https://www.wsj.com/tech/amazon-alexa-plans-ai-panos-panay-0e6de132?ref=spyglass.org) of Amazon's Panos Panay made clear, he's not going to fully release Alexa+ until she's ready for [prime time](https://spyglass.org/remarkable-alexa-event/). It may be a while yet, it seems. While reading these reviews, a thought popped into my head: what if this is all a mistake for Amazon? I don't mean the bugs, as those will undoubtedly be resolved. I mean the overall strategy for Alexa here... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### You the User URL: https://spyglass.org/you-are-the-product/ Last updated: 2025-07-17T18:34:01.000Z > Advertising isn't just the disruption of aesthetics, the insults to your intelligence and the interruption of your train of thought. At every company that sells ads, a significant portion of their engineering team spends their day tuning data mining, writing better code to collect all your personal data, upgrading the servers that hold all the data and making sure it's all being logged and collated and sliced and packaged and shipped out... And at the end of the day the result of it all is a slightly different advertising banner in your browser or on your mobile screen. Remember, when advertising is involved **you the user** are the product. Damn, that's a strong statement and bold stance. Who wrote that? Oh. Well this is awkward. Those words were written by Jan Koum, the co-founder of WhatsApp. That post, really outlining the core ethos of the company as directed Koum and his co-founder Brian Acton was written [exactly 13 years ago](https://blog.whatsapp.com/why-we-don-t-sell-ads?ref=spyglass.org). Not even two years later, the company was acquired by Facebook. Yes, the social media giant that made basically 100% of their money from advertising. Sure, promises were seemingly made about running autonomously and not breaching that user commitment and trust, but obviously Koum and Acton had about 19 billion reasons to do the deal – and actually, *far more* today, given how much of it was in stock.1 As those promises started to bend and the pressure started to ramp, the founders were gone – [sound familiar?](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/) – and WhatsApp was just sitting there as an untapped surface... As it turns out, the best way to ensure your product doesn't get exploited by ads may not be to *sell to an advertising company*. [Given the move](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/166065880/whatsapp-introduces-ads-in-its-app?ref=spyglass.org) to now [show ads](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/technology/whatsapp-ads.html?ref=spyglass.org) within WhatsApp – [yes, yes](https://www.theverge.com/meta/688714/whatsapp-ads-rollout-change-app-meta?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com), not in your conversations right now, but we all know which way this goes, which is only in the direction of more ads – it's honestly sort of remarkable that this post is still live on the company blog, as surfaced [yesterday by John Gruber](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/06/17/why-whatsapp-didnt-sell-ads?ref=spyglass.org). It's just such a damning take down of the company that WhatsApp would ultimately sell to. We can argue about whether they're breaching some sort of actual agreement here with this move, but they're absolutely shattering the spirit of the early company. That post also kicks off with a quote, actually: > *Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need.*– Tyler Durden, Fight Club As it turns out, [maybe you are your fucking khakis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=im2G7%5FL01hw&ref=spyglass.org). --- 1 [The original deal terms](https://archive.nytimes.com/dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/19/facebook-to-buy-messaging-start-up/?ref=spyglass.org) called for $4B in cash and $12B in Facebook shares – and potentially $3B more in shares based on earn-outs. At the time of the deal, the stock was trading around $65/share. Today, it's trading at $700/share. Those $15B worth of Facebook shares in 2014 would be **worth around $160B today**. Remarkably, both Acton and Koum left before they fully vested the earn-outs. They still did okay, I think. ### Netflix Really Is TV Now URL: https://spyglass.org/netflix-goes-linear/ Last updated: 2025-07-17T18:33:45.000Z [Netflix strikes landmark deal with France’s TF1 to show traditional TVDeal will be closely watched by broadcasters, who are losing millions of viewers to streaming giants![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/ftlogo-v1-3Abrand-ft-logo-square-coloured-11)Financial Times![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net-2Fproduction-2F1228245e-613d-4104-9539-95d86821cdc1.jpg)](https://www.ft.com/content/4dc9accc-0024-46b6-bf33-a4125239e238?ref=spyglass.org) Wave the white flag. Throw in the towel. It's over for linear TV. > Netflix has struck a landmark deal to show linear TV for the first time with French TV network TF1, as traditional broadcasters struggle with changing viewing habits and fierce competition from streaming giants. > > TF1 will use Netflix’s platform to broadcast shows such as Brocéliande and The Voice, as well as major live sports in its home country. France’s largest commercial broadcaster will show all five of its linear channels on Netflix, as well as more than 30,000 hours of TV shows available on demand. Yes, this is just one channel. And yes, just in France. But this has [clearly been where this is all heading](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/). That is, to a world where Netflix isn't just eating into traditional television time, but [where *it is television*](https://spyglass.org/streaming-and-the-city/). This deal is symbolic, if nothing else. But it's also likely the first of many such deals. > The deal opens the door to more deals between [Netflix](https://www.ft.com/stream/2fa688f8-97f0-4596-a705-822b4a5f9d6f?ref=spyglass.org) and traditional TV groups, which are struggling with declining audiences and advertising revenues as more people watch TV online or over streaming services. > > Greg Peters, co-chief executive of Netflix, told the Financial Times some French audiences now thought of “TV as Netflix, and so this is an opportunity for us to work with the largest broadcaster in the French media ecosystem \[and\] producer of great, premium content”. > > Peters said the deal would bring different sorts of TV shows to Netflix, such as soap operas, as well as live sports. TF1 shows the French national football team’s matches as well as other sports, including basketball. Netflix has the viewers and so now they will aggregate the content. Obviously, they've been doing this in many ways since day one of the streaming service, but this makes them the full-on front-end of TF1 when it comes to streaming. Like everyone else – [aside from Sony, which smartly saw this future before everyone else](https://mgs.blog/sony-just-announced-their-streaming-service-its-called-netflix-79ea5b917aae?ref=spyglass.org) – the French network had been trying to compete with their own streaming offering, but it wasn't really working out. So now they'll continue to milk the profits from traditional television until the cow runs dry while seeking actual growth and viewership through the platform with the actual viewers. They're not disclosing the deal terms here, but it would be fascinating to know. Presumably there will be some sort of revenue share, but will it be for subscriptions that TF1 drives or advertising revenues, or both? That last bit also seems to be key here. Before [Netflix found religion with regard to advertising](https://spyglass.org/netflix-ads/), it seemingly would have been harder to strike deals like this. But now that they can share advertising revenues – the key business for TF1, of course – with such partners, it's a lot more seamless and presumably easy of a conversation. Especially because this deal will bring both [more live sports](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) and [more live programming](https://spyglass.org/netflix-f1-racing/) in general to Netflix. And now the world will be watching – certainly the network television world, quite literally – when this partnership rolls out next summer. If it works, does it entice one of the smaller US streamers to go all-in with Netflix as a tile on their homescreen? Maybe they take a hybrid approach and keep their service stand-alone but also offer it through Netflix via a rev share partnership? Functionally, this might look similar to how you can have the Hulu app or you can watch it through the Disney+ app (because, of course, Disney owns both – and loves offering as [many streaming options](https://spyglass.org/disney-streaming-bundle/) as [humanly](https://spyglass.org/disney-plus-television/) [possible](https://spyglass.org/new-sportscenter-plus-disney-plus-espn-plus-plus-plus/)). Speaking of, does this cause Disney to strike a similar deal with a non-owned player to aggregate them inside of Disney+? Certainly, you could see the [forthcoming new ESPN](https://spyglass.org/espn-minus-the-plus/) streaming service [do this for sports rights](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) they don't own... [Amazon?](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) [Apple?](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/) And what about YouTube? Does this cause them to come off the sidelines and strike similar deals to combat Netflix for the future of television?[1](#one) --- **Update**: [As Tobias Steinke notes on Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/gewappnet.bsky.social/post/3lrv5g5axrs2p?ref=spyglass.org), Amazon has been offering some live linear television to Prime Video users [since earlier this year](https://uk.themedialeader.com/amazon-prime-video-is-launching-a-24-7-linear-channel-in-germany-and-austria/?ref=spyglass.org), in a "Live TV" area of the service. Though Prime Video is not Netflix, of course. --- 👇 ****The times they are a changin...** [ESPN’s Path to Be \*the\* Streaming Sports BundleIt’s not exactly “clear”, as Amazon may battle them along the way…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1267.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ESPN-logo-living-room--3--6.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/espn-sports-bundle-streaming/) [Amazon & ESPN’s Sports Streaming Collision CourseWith Netflix drafting behind them…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1269.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_F1_cars_with_the_logos_of_Amazon_and_ESPN_and_Netflix_a_4f948e35-d214-4a92-ba80-8ac8050bcc7b_0-2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/amazon-espn-sports-streaming/) [Netflix’s Nickel on Apple TV’s DimeApple needs to tell us where to stream something -- even if it’s on Netflix.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1268.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-11-15-at-1.55.38-PM-2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-netflix-streaming/) [The Greatest Trick Netflix Ever Pulled......was convincing the world they weren’t interested in live sports![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1271.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2024-12-26-at-8.07.19-PM-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/netflix-nfl-streaming/) [Cable’s Continued CollapseMajor Pay TV Operators Shed 5 Million Subscribers in 2023 - TheWrapThe figure brings the industry’s total net losses in the past five years to over 20 million, according to Leichtman Research GroupTheWrapLucas Manfredi Everyone knows by now (finally – I wrote this almost a decade ago) that cable TV![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1270.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Pay-TV-Subscribers-2023-1.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/rip-cable/) --- 1 Not YouTube TV, the vMVPD, *but YouTube itself*. BTW, I finally made good on my promise and cancelled YouTube TV yesterday. [It's simply too expensive for what it is now](https://spyglass.org/youtube-tv-cable/). I have all the content I want/can watch on other streaming services! ### Dial 'T1' for Triumph URL: https://spyglass.org/t1-trump-phone/ Last updated: 2025-06-17T13:18:09.000Z [The Trump Mobile T1 Phone looks both bad and impossibleIt’s supposedly made in the USA, cheap, and coming this fall. I doubt it all.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/apple-touch-icon-29.png)The VergeDavid Pierce![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/t1-phone-trump.jpg)](https://www.theverge.com/gadgets/687492/trump-mobile-phone-t1?ref=spyglass.org) Look, the design of this phone is amazing. It's perfect. No notes. Is it real? These are details that simply do not matter. When you're gifted the vision of a phone that looks to be a wood grain painted yellow but called "gold", you say "yes". Is the 'T' meant to evoke the T-Mobile 'T', which happens to be a carrier partner for the [Trump Mobile MVNO](https://www.theverge.com/tech/687574/trump-mobile-plan-bad-deal?ref=spyglass.org)? Is the finger-print sensor designed in the style of a cookie? Is the whole thing just a bit off-center? Again, it's all just "yes" and also "please". Still, if you're the type of stickler who wants some details, fine: > Here is a roughly complete list of all the things we know for sure about the first phone made for [the new Trump Mobile wireless provider](https://www.theverge.com/news/687418/trump-mobile-network-t1-trademark-application?ref=spyglass.org): it’s called the T1 Phone 8002 (gold version). It costs $499, and you can reserve one now with a $100 down payment. It is, according to the website, coming in September. > > That’s about all I feel confident saying. Beyond that, all we have is a website that was clearly put together quickly and somewhat sloppily, a promise that the phone is “designed and built in the USA” that I absolutely do not believe, a picture that appears to be nearly 100 percent Photoshopped, and a list of specs that don’t make a lot of sense together. The existence of a “gold version” of the phone implies a not-gold version, but the Trump Mobile website doesn’t say anything more about that. All I know is that there damn well better *only* be a gold version. You want a silver medal? Get an iPhone. Loser. > • 6.78-inch AMOLED display, with a punch hole for the camera > • 120Hz refresh rate > • Three cameras on the back, including a 50MP camera, a 2MP depth sensor, and a 2MP macro lens > • 16MP selfie camera > • a 5,000mAh battery (the Trump Mobile website actually says “5000mAh long life camera,” so I’m just assuming here) > • 256GB of storage > • 12GB of RAM (the site also calls this “storage,” which, sure) > • Fingerprint sensor in the screen and face unlock > • USB-C > • Headphone jack > • Android 15 Speaking of, does your iPhone have a "5000mAh long life camera". No it does not. I can confidently say that because no phone has that. Because that doesn't make any sense. Or it didn't until this phone came along. Now it makes all the sense in the world. Does your iPhone feature 12GB of RAM storage? This phone is breaking new ground. And also old ground. My god, it even has a headphone jack. "[Courageously](https://500ish.com/courage-6725268010e1?ref=spyglass.org)" [killed off by Apple](https://500ish.com/lukewarm-takes-on-the-iphone-7-event-ade7f2dac89c?ref=spyglass.org), but even more courageously brought back from the dead here. Pierce is full of jokes here, [but *The Verge* is 100% giving this phone a 10/10](https://500ish.com/requiem-for-a-headphone-jack-9a5b06613e9c?ref=spyglass.org#.entrqosos). That is, if they can review the device. Which they won't be able to because they'll be blinded by the brilliance of the sun reflecting off the golden American flag. They're worried about the lack of a processor listed in the specs, I think the '1' in the logo on the back may feature polka dots. Process that. > Frankly, it’s the whole “made in the USA” bit that is the most unlikely thing about the T1\. Trump certainly believes that iPhones, as well as other smartphones, *could* be made in the US, but as Apple CEO Tim Cook and many others have said, there’s [virtually no evidence that’s the case](https://www.theverge.com/news/645355/trump-us-iphone-manufacturing-dream-steve-jobs-tim-cook?ref=spyglass.org). Even smartphone makers based in the US, [even the ones](https://www.theverge.com/2013/3/18/4100006/why-blu-products-can-beat-samsung?ref=spyglass.org) making cheaper smartphones, aren’t making their phones in America. What if 'the USA' isn't a place but a state of mind? Did you consider that? Can you be working in a plant in Asia and still be in that USA state of mind? You bet your ass you can. And so you tell me where this phone is made. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/Trump-T1-Phone-made-in-the-USA-w1680h945.webp) ### OpenAI and Microsoft Risk Open War URL: https://spyglass.org/openai-and-microsoft-risk-open-war/ Last updated: 2025-07-17T18:33:16.000Z [ OpenAI and Microsoft Tensions Are Reaching a Boiling Point The startup, growing frustrated with its partner, has discussed making antitrust complaints to regulators ![](https://s.wsj.net/img/meta/wsj_favicon.svg) Wall Street Journal Berber Jin ![](https://images.wsj.net/im-22968145?width=700&size=1.357&pixel_ratio=2) ](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-and-microsoft-tensions-are-reaching-a-boiling-point-4981c44f?ref=spyglass.org) It has been a minute since we last had an update on the continued infighting between Microsoft and OpenAI. Which is to say, [it has been a month](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-zoom-zoom-zooms-to-the-defensive-about-ai/). So how are things going? [Not great](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpUWrl3-mc8&ref=spyglass.org), [Microsoft Bob](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft%5FBob?ref=spyglass.org). > Tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft over the future of their [famed AI partnership](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-satya-nadella-rift-307cb7f5?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org) are flaring up. > > OpenAI wants to loosen Microsoft’s grip on its AI products and computing resources, and secure the tech giant’s blessing for its conversion into a [for-profit company](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-to-become-public-benefit-corporation-9e7896e0?mod=article%5Finline&ref=spyglass.org). Microsoft’s approval of the conversion is key to OpenAI’s ability to raise more money and go public. > > But the negotiations have been so difficult that in recent weeks, OpenAI’s executives have discussed what they view as a nuclear option: accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior during their partnership, people familiar with the matter said. That effort could involve seeking federal regulatory review of the terms of the contract for potential violations of antitrust law, as well as a public campaign, the people said. If there's ever been a more "yikes" report about a business partnership, it's hard to think of what that is. Just over a year ago, I wrote my first real post on this matter, reading some tea leaves to try to game out where this relationship was heading. I titled the post as a question: [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) I think we have our answer. As I wrote last May: > Anyway, all of this underscores the whispers you can’t help but hear if you follow any of this: that OpenAI and Microsoft are increasingly at odds with one another. Yes, they’ll still say the right things in public, and even make [the occasional public appearance in support of one another](https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-build-keynote-announcements-copilot-ai-bing-news-2024-5?ref=spyglass.org#a-surprise-guest-sam-altman). But there are billions of reasons to do that, literally. At the same time, the more subtle signals point to partners at odds. And a rift growing between the two. > > All of that leads to the obvious question: if OpenAI is about to bite the hand that feeds them? And what, if anything, Microsoft can do if bitten? What they'll do, as it turns out, is make any deal OpenAI wants to do a nightmare. From trying to shift into [more standard company structure](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/) to declaring "AGI" to acquiring companies, as Jin reports: > OpenAI and Microsoft are at a standoff over the terms of the startup’s $3 billion acquisition of the coding startup Windsurf, the people said. Microsoft currently has access to all of OpenAI’s IP, according to their agreement. It offers its own AI coding product, GitHub Copilot, that competes with OpenAI. OpenAI doesn’t want Microsoft to have access to Windsurf’s intellectual property. You'd think Microsoft would be pissed off that OpenAI was acquiring a competitor to GitHub Copilot – especially given that OpenAI itself already competes in the space. But actually, if this report is accurate, it's the other way around! And it makes some sense, if the two sides are clearly in the midst of a divorce – [where my analogies for the two side naturally drifted next](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) – OpenAI is going to want to keep those future earnings (and more importantly here, data) from the ex. Speaking of... > The companies continue to be at odds over how much of OpenAI Microsoft would own if it converts into a public-benefit corporation. Microsoft is currently asking for a larger stake in the new company than OpenAI is willing to give, people familiar with the matter said. Yeah, this is obviously the main sticking point for the two sides at this point. [I broke this down more in-depth last month](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) but at a high level, Microsoft has their roughly 49% share of future profits (which actually starts at 75% as they're repaid for their initial investments). But there's no way OpenAI is going to let them own 49% of the actual equity in the company. This isn't [Meta hackquiring Scale](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/). This is a $300B (and constantly rising) company. They're raising more money right now in their latest round than any company [has ever raised in an IPO](https://spyglass.org/openai-ipo-ish/). And the truth is that Microsoft *shouldn't want* to own that much of OpenAI, simply because the higher the ownership stake, the more scrutiny it will draw from regulators. 49% may be a minority share, but it's really a wink-wink minority share. It's a LOOK OVER HERE: nothing-to-see-here share. There's a reason [Anthropic has caps](https://spyglass.org/amazon-anthropic-stake-google/) on how much their Big Tech benefactors can own. Microsoft probably needs to be near [the 33% I had originally guessed](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/), and ideally would be closer to the [just-under 25% that Amazon likely owns of Anthropic](https://spyglass.org/big-techs-big-stakes-in-big-ai/). Did someone say "antitrust"? > Under the Biden administration, the Federal Trade Commission opened a broad antitrust investigation into Microsoft last year. It also examined Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI, alongside other big tech investments into AI more than a year ago. Can you imagine if a ([second](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/)) Microsoft antitrust trial kicks off and OpenAI is a willing witness *for the government*? There's not enough popcorn in the world. Ultimately, this feels just like a threat from OpenAI – albeit a rather crazy one – to get Microsoft to the negotiating table. Maybe Sam Altman is learning a thing or two from President Trump: [do whatever it takes to gain any leverage you can](https://spyglass.org/trump-tariffs-deal/). You'd have to think that given how much money is riding – on all sides – here, that cooler heads will prevail. But [you also would have thought that](https://spyglass.org/10-big-predictions-for-2025/) *months ago*. > “We have a long-term, productive partnership that has delivered amazing AI tools for everyone,” representatives for the two companies said in a joint statement. “Talks are ongoing and we are optimistic we will continue to build together for years to come.” Uh oh. The dreaded joint statement. That's how you know [things are](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/) really bad. --- **Update June 17, 2025**: [Sri Muppidi and Aaron Holmes have a bit more in *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-seeks-new-financial-concessions-microsoft-top-shareholder?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org) – notably that OpenAI is aiming for Microsoft to have a 33% stake after the equity conversion. That happens to be the **exact** number [I guessed back in October](https://spyglass.org/openai-xai-microsoft-space-race/) (and [later doubled down on](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/)) when trying to back into a cap cable... --- **Update June 18, 2025**: In a clear counter to OpenAI's "nuclear option", Microsoft has let their own be known: simply walking away from the talks. [As the *FT* reports](https://www.ft.com/content/072e90fe-1c8c-415c-8024-5996b1ebb3cb?ref=spyglass.org), Microsoft is happy to keep the current deal in place, earning revenue until 2030\. Of course, OpenAI is not okay with that because it would imperil [their for-profit maneuvers](https://spyglass.org/openai-for-profit-nah/). Round and round we go... --- 🐉 ****More on this dance of dragons...** [Will OpenAI Bite the Microsoft Hand That Feeds?A sense of tension between the two sides is inescapable![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1187.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-surreal-image-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-ai/) [Microsoft’s OpenAI Equity Jigsaw PuzzleWith the non-profit maintaining a controlling stake and an FMV floor set by Elon Musk, OpenAI still has a hell of a challenge…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1189.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ChatGPT-Image-May-6--2025--09_28_55-AM-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-equity/) [Microsoft Outsources OpenAI’s Ambitions to SoftBankThere’s a new capital partner in town as they march towards ‘superintelligence’![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1191.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_two_men_passing_a_buck_cartoon_--ar_21_--profile_zegoym_8ba66d6f-5b36-4bc4-b421-119a80ade3b6_0-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/openai-microsoft-softbank/) [Hey JealousyAre OpenAI and Microsoft back bickering yet again?![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1190.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--2--1-9.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-openai-ai-jealousy/) [The War of the AI RosesMicrosoft and OpenAI increasingly make strange bedfellows…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1188.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/roses_banner-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-war-of-the-ai-roses/) ### Big Journalism Is Finally Losing... It URL: https://spyglass.org/big-journalism-is-finally-losing-it/ Last updated: 2025-07-14T16:20:05.000Z [ Big Tech Is Finally Losing A technology landscape we deserve is finally within reach. ![](https://www.nytimes.com/vi-assets/static-assets/favicon-d2483f10ef688e6f89e23806b9700298.ico) The New York Times Julia Angwin ![](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/06/13/opinion/12angwin-image/12angwin-image-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp) ](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/12/opinion/google-apple-court-antitrust.html?ref=spyglass.org) There are many ongoing investigations into Big Tech™ and Julia Angwin is excited: > It’s easy to miss it amid the nonstop avalanche of news, but we are on the cusp of a technology revolution — one that could usher in an entirely new information landscape. Technology revolution? New information landscape? That sounds great! It's also not going to happen. At least not in the way Angwin envisions. In fact, what's far more likely to happen is the *opposite* of what she imagines. > After 30 years of shockingly few regulatory restraints, America’s tech giants were beginning to operate almost like wrecking balls, slamming their weight into industry after industry and taking them out one after another. Boom. Uber crushed the taxi limousine business. Boom. Facebook toppled the news business. Boom. Amazon wiped out numerous small retailers. > > Finally, our courts are beginning to push back. Why would the courts be responsible for pushing back against this? If there was something illegal in any of the above, sure. But that's not what she's suggesting. She's seemingly suggesting that certain types of businesses should be protected by the courts. Why? Because she likes them and deems them worthy of protecting against other businesses that out-competed them in the market. Okay.[1](#one) She immediately goes on to talk about a couple of cases where the courts *did* rule against two Big Tech players recently – notably, Apple and Google. And ropes in Meta here even though the court has not yet ruled against them ([and is seemingly unlikely to](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/)). It's a rather blatant attempt to bucket all these situations together as if they're the same thing, illegal monopoly behavior, for the literal sake of the argument, when the reality of each of these cases are quite different and nuanced. Shocking, I know. In the Google Search case, my bet would be that the court [keeps it simple](https://spyglass.org/the-google-break-up/) by ending the practice of [paying for default placement](https://spyglass.org/google-antitrust/) (but still allowing Google to pay players [like Apple](https://spyglass.org/appl/) and Mozilla a revenue share based on usage/performance). I don't think they'll force the company to sell off Chrome because [I don't think it would do much of anything](https://spyglass.org/google-chrome-spin-out/) other than either install a new king of the market if they [give it to a large AI player like OpenAI](https://spyglass.org/openai-buying-chrome-not/), and perhaps hurt the web more broadly if Google stops investing in Chromium. (I do think [the AI element of all this](https://spyglass.org/chrome-chatgpt-browser/) is the far more compelling aspect [to watch](https://spyglass.org/chrome-gemini/) and see how the court handles it – because it's about the future, [not the past](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/).) With Apple, [I *agree* with the decision](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) to force the company to [allow for links](https://spyglass.org/apple-sells-soul/) to the web where third-party payments can be processed. Yet that was just a sliver of what Epic wanted and accused Apple of, but failed to prove in their case. Apple won on every other count, which Angwin doesn't mention, of course. Still, it's [a nice big door](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) that opened – [and now seems to be staying ajar](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/). But it had less to do with Epic and more a self-own by Apple. First and foremost by getting far too greedy in both their control of the App Store and literally greedy [in the cut](https://spyglass.org/apples-cut/) they [were demanding](https://spyglass.org/apples-lol-fee/). And, of course, they did themselves no extra favors by perhaps *lying* to the court about the above. Meta is a company also with all sorts of [issues](https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/), but does that mean we should be fully litigating in hindsight to rip away deals that are a decade-plus old? What would that actually do besides destroy Meta ([if Instagram were forced to be spun out](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/))? All because Facebook toppled the news business? Please. They're all just really different cases. Yes, they're all Big Tech, but that's really the only commonality here. > Reining in Big Tech appears to be one of the few bipartisan policies that has spanned the Biden and Trump administrations, despite the tech titans’ attempts to curry favor with the new president. Taken together, these developments could end years of stagnation and usher in more competition, smaller companies and better services. I personally can’t wait for competition in the search market — as Google results have been [getting worse](https://searchengineland.com/is-google-really-getting-worse-actually-its-complicated-455079?ref=spyglass.org), by many estimates, including [my own](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/opinion/google-monopoly-ruling-break-up.html?ref=spyglass.org). > > I’m tired of sifting through Google’s increasingly cluttered and irrelevant search results, searching in vain for the latest news and instead finding only Reddit posts. I want a search engine for shopping that trawls the web for the best merchandise rather than just pulling from the sites that list items with Google. I want a search engine that doesn’t allow ads to masquerade as reviews. I want a search engine that lets me control the amount of artificial intelligence summaries in my results. And there are probably even cooler search products that a new generation of search entrepreneurs will dream up. I don't disagree with the high-level notion of Google Search getting worse over time – as would anyone with eyes. But to me, that's largely about cramming more ads in, nothing with the actual results (though in some ways they're one in the same problem). You could also call this getting too greedy, but really it's just a company executing the mandate from the market to keep growing revenue. (Apple, naturally has the same mandate, as does Meta, *as does every public company*, of course.) Aside from Angwin's product specs laying out ideas that have failed time and time again in the market (because of a lack of competition, she would say, but I would bet that even in a world where Google was dissolved, whatever popped-up to take its place would have looked a lot like... Google, not like these personal product desires), what do we really think is more likely: that regulation will force the search market to be more competitive, or that *the market itself* will force that to happen? I mean, [the latter is already happening](https://spyglass.org/the-end-of-the-web/) – naturally. Angwin dismisses new competition like Perplexity as a "mirage" but I bet if we fast forward a year or two, she'll be singing a different tune. I, like most people, was skeptical that the AI tools would be able to take over search functionality, now I'm certain of it. Because it has already happened for me. And for young people, [they'll grow up in a world where such usage is the norm](https://spyglass.org/kids-and-ai/). Including, perhaps, Google's own AI, [as the case may be](https://spyglass.org/goo-goo-google-search/). Even if the courts do force Google to share search data with others. I'm guessing that won't shift the market much, if at all. Google already does this in Europe. No one cares. What shifts the market are the new AI products. Again, it's already happening. Without the courts. > It’s worth remembering that antitrust rulings are necessary but not sufficient to increase competition. Think of the 1984 [landmark breakup of AT&T](https://www.promarket.org/2024/04/10/driving-innovation-with-antitrust/?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=The%201956%20consent%20decree%20against%20AT&T%20also,the%20development%20of%20the%20first%20internet%20network%E2%80%94Arpanet.&text=AT&T%20continued%20to%20own%20Bell%20Labs%20after,for%20research%20stemmed%20from%20Bell%20operating%20companies.), which prompted all sorts of great innovations, from the popularization of portable radios to lower-priced long-distance calls, but didn’t last. Twenty years later, the Baby Bells largely recombined, leaving us with the current duopoly of AT&T and Verizon. Their dominance in the market has kept American [cellphone service](https://kushnickbruce.medium.com/verizons-wireless-overcharging-per-gb-7-400-to-65-000-vs-overseas-prices-408e20d4d8ed?ref=spyglass.org) and [broadband internet](https://kushnickbruce.medium.com/americas-egregious-broadband-rates-vs-overseas-prices-why-b9ed5c7c7a55?ref=spyglass.org) both more expensive and worse than our European peers. Aside from the fact that this inclusion sort of inconveniently undercuts the whole argument, it's also decidedly more nuanced than a paragraph can convey. Everyone making the argument for the courts loves to point to AT&T – [including Lina Khan](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/), in yet another [misguided *NYT* op-ed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/opinion/deepseek-ai-big-tech.html?ref=spyglass.org) – but, of course, AT&T *pre-empted* that action. And that, in turn, helped land much of the innovation Angwin cites. Did the courts influence that move, of course. *That case also started 50 years ago*. The more recent case always cited is the Microsoft one. That was a mere 25 years ago, and, well, [actually did little if anything to disrupt Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/google-disrupted-microsoft/). Because the market did that. And was always going to do that. Also, Microsoft is currently the most valuable company in the world. Right now. In 2025\. Angwin leaves them out of this – aside from noting their failure with Bing – but certainly she must not like that fact one bit. But hey, the courts are finally winning. Big Tech is finally losing. Innovation by way of regulation can thrive at last! We can get a shopping search engine or whatever. I'm sure the same things won't happen over and over again because that might suggest that natural market forces are at play here and generally work. But there are other countries in which to live if you'd prefer a more top-down approach... **Disclosure: I worked at Google for 11 years as a partner at their venture fund, GV. Obviously, my thoughts are my own on these matters.* **I also was (and remain!)* [**an investor*](https://mgsiegler.com/investments?ref=spyglass.org) *in Uber, in no small part because of the* [**disruption*](https://spyglass.org/uber-schadenfreude/) *of the taxi industry, which was a very good thing!* --- 1 It's also a funny bit of revisionist history given the state of the taxi industry when Uber swept into the market – because of the state of that market with firmly entrenched players, to put it nicely. ### Hey Meta AI, Is This Fraud? Publish. URL: https://spyglass.org/hey-meta-ai-is-this-fraud-publish/ Last updated: 2025-06-15T21:14:39.000Z [The Meta AI app is a privacy disaster | TechCrunchMeta does not indicate to users what their privacy settings are as they post, or where they are even posting to. So, if you log into Meta AI with Instagram, and your Instagram account is public, then so too are your searches.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/cropped-cropped-favicon-gradient-3.png)TechCrunchAmanda Silberling![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/dripping-meta-logo.jpg)](https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/12/the-meta-ai-app-is-a-privacy-disaster/?ref=spyglass.org) Meta gonna Meta: > It sounds like the start of a 21st-century horror film: Your browser history has been public all along, and you had no idea. That’s basically what it feels like right now on the new stand-alone [Meta AI app](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/29/meta-launches-a-standalone-ai-app-to-compete-with-chatgpt/?ref=spyglass.org), where swathes of people are publishing their ostensibly private conversations with the chatbot. > > When you ask the AI a question, you have the option of hitting a share button, which then directs you to a screen showing a preview of the post, which you can then publish. But some users appear blissfully unaware that they are sharing these text conversations, audio clips, and images publicly with the world. Is it Meta's fault that people are seemingly unknowingly sharing such things despite the prompt telling them what they're about to do? On one hand, I guess not. On the other: > Whether you admit to committing a crime or having a weird rash, this is a privacy nightmare. Meta does not indicate to users what their privacy settings are as they post, or where they are even posting to. So, if you log into Meta AI with Instagram, and your Instagram account is public, then so too are your searches about how to meet “big booty women.” I just tried to post something and while I did get a disclaimer about the posts being public, it was also in small type, in gray, and far less prominent than that BIG BLUE 'POST TO FEED' BUTTON. Potentially more problematic: I hit the post button and now have absolutely no idea where it actually posted. I can't find it on my Meta AI feed. Nor do I see it on Facebook or Instagram – also, the fact that I have to check to see if it posted to those is a bit terrifying... I suspect we're about to see a new Meta "Privacy Center" roll out with a thousand menus and options, none of which make much sense and many of which seem to contradict each other. But you know, in the spirit of simplicity and sharing. Also, has anyone at Meta used the internet for the past couple of decades? *No one* reads such prompts and if they do, they probably don't understand them, or don't care. Or all of the above. And this was all so obviously inevitable, seeing as... [I noted it back in April](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/): > What if Meta brings over the Facebook and/or Instagram graphs? Again, maybe that's fun for a time, but I'm not sure how sticky that product is. And there are perhaps some very real downsides if people don't fully understand what they're sharing – [as is clearly already happening](https://www.threads.com/@joannastern/post/DJDZG53NKSv?xmt=AQGzRrJJOfb81k1WYuP28EUZlxmt6%5Fx2tcb-MYMbP6Tnmw&ref=spyglass.org)! It's not just [AI slop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI%5Fslop?ref=spyglass.org), it's AI sloppy. Back to Silberling: > When I woke up this morning, I did not expect to hear an audio recording of a man in a Southern accent asking, “Hey, Meta, why do some farts stink more than other farts?” > > Flatulence-related inquiries are the least of [Meta’s problems](https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-meta-ai-chatbot-discover-feed-depressing-why-2025-6?ref=spyglass.org). On the Meta AI app, I have seen people ask for help with tax evasion, if their family members would be arrested for their proximity to white-collar crimes, or how to write a character reference letter for an employee facing legal troubles, with that person’s first and last name included. Others, like security expert Rachel Tobac, [found examples](https://x.com/racheltobac/status/1933006223109959820?ref=spyglass.org) of people’s home addresses and sensitive court details, among other private information. Could be worse, could be [celebrity](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/) [chatbots](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/) farting, I guess. The main post of [my post from April](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) was wondering if it wasn't time for Meta to move beyond all of this social nonsense and start taking AI seriously: > As for Meta and AI, I think they probably need to do something [far more](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lnxl3i3zt22c?ref=spyglass.org) interesting and inspiring. Something beyond incorporating user data from Facebook and Instagram. Sure, AI ad optimization may pay off, literally ([as it needs to](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/)), but they're clearly aiming for something larger. Something outside of the prompt box. Well, they're seemingly [doing that](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [now](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/). But they should probably roll back some of this social stuff, as it's not going to entice many to join Zuckerberg's Team Superintelligence. [Meta’s Sloppy AI Social NetworkThe new ‘Meta AI’ is exactly what you’d expect, in ways good and bad…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1182.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_AI_slop_being_poured_into_bowls_--ar_21_--profile_6kai7_3545e1bf-889b-422b-bcdf-0e3ae22758bc_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-sloppy-seconds/) [Meta’s Next Big BlunderSocial AI “characters” are so obviously and hilariously going to fail![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1183.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/0_1-3.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/meta-dumb-ai-bots/) [RIP Meta’s Celebrity AI Chatbots (2024 - 2024)BRU, we hardly knew you…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1186.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Meta-AI-chatbots-Tom-Brady-1-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/meta-ai-chatbots-slaughtered/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1185.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1184.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3-3.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) ### Hackquisitions & Hackquihires URL: https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/ Last updated: 2025-07-14T16:19:05.000Z [The deal](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) is done. Meta is [paying $14.3B](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/meta-announces-scale-ai-investment-recruits-ceo-to-ai-unit?ref=spyglass.org) for a 49% stake in Scale AI. Of course, that's not really what they're buying. They can't exactly come out and say it, but it's all right there in the reporting and the various releases and statements from the companies and individuals [involved](https://scale.com/blog/scale-ai-announces-next-phase-of-company-evolution?ref=spyglass.org). What Meta is really paying for in the clear order of importance to them: Scale CEO Alexandr Wang, some of Wang's top employees at Scale, the stake in Scale itself. Actually, there's one thing above those three that Mark Zuckerberg clearly believes he is buying here: relevance in the future of AI. On the surface, this deal is a wild one for a wide range of reasons, even beyond the price tag. But to anyone who has been following the tech M&A landscape over the past year, this type of deal should be oddly familiar. It's [a "hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/) – an acquisition of a company in all but name. Because there's no way the US government (and undoubtedly many other governments around the world) would allow such a deal to take place – yes, even in our [post-Lina Khan world](https://spyglass.org/earth-to-lina-khan/). So it's not an acquisition, you see. It's an agreement between two consenting companies to work together in weird and decidedly expensive ways while perhaps swapping an employee or two – or basically all of them, in some cases. Notably, always including the CEO. Nothing to see here. Nothing at all... This latest version of that type of deal, [pioneered by Microsoft](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) with ~~their deal~~ totally-not-a-deal to ~~buy~~ totally-not-buy Inflection (an idea that itself was likely born out of the deal they almost had to do to bring Sam Altman and the OpenAI team on board post-coup), is the most interesting yet. And not just because it's the largest one yet. But because it seemingly blends together elements of past hackqusitions. In a way, many of the past such deals were really "hackquihires" and this is much more of an actual "hackquisition". Let's look at the previous deals... _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### While 'iOS 26' Will Ship in 2025, 'Siri 26' Will Ship in 2026 URL: https://spyglass.org/siri-2026/ Last updated: 2025-07-14T16:18:49.000Z [Apple Targets Spring 2026 for Release of Delayed Siri AI UpgradeApple Inc. has set an internal release target of spring 2026 for its delayed upgrade of Siri, marking a key step in its artificial intelligence turnaround effort.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-black-16.png)BloombergMark Gurman![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/1200x800-10.jpg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/apple-targets-spring-2026-for-release-of-delayed-siri-ai-upgrade?ref=spyglass.org) In a troubling continuation of [their weasel-wording](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/), Apple kept saying [at WWDC](https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/) this year that the new Siri features – you know, the ones promised *last year*, but that never shipped – are going to be available in the "coming year". That, of course, suggests anytime between now and a year from now. And that, of course, suggests that the features are close. Perhaps really close. It was just a minor delay and [nothing more](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/), after all. Of course, when you push them, as many rightfully did after last year's debacle, they're admitting that "coming" is really a slippery placeholder for another word: "next". As in, these features are coming in 2026\. *Next year.* > Apple Inc. has set an internal release target of spring 2026 for its delayed upgrade of Siri, marking a key step in its artificial intelligence turnaround effort. > > The company’s Siri team is aiming to bring the revamped voice assistant to market as part of an iOS 26.4 software update, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The long-promised changes will allow Siri to tap into consumers’ personal data and on-screen activities in order to better fulfill queries. > > Apple’s “.4” updates — known as “E” on the company’s internal software development schedule — are typically released in March. That was the case with iOS 18.4 this year and iOS 17.4 in 2024\. But an exact date hasn’t been set internally for the software, beyond a spring time frame, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the work is private. March 2026, if they hit that, will likely be closer to WWDC 2026 than it is to 2025\. Which is to say, *the next developer event* a year from now. So yeah, "coming year" may be technically accurate, but it's also purposefully vague. Not to give Apple wiggle room on the hopes of a 2025 launch, but to let some people think these marquee features will be here any day now and maybe Apple really isn't behind in AI. On the upside, that timetable would potentially allow them to highlight the features (again) at the iPhone unveil in the early fall. Ideally, they'll be real and really working this time. We'll see, we're not *that* far away from that event already. > If the latest release timing sticks, Apple will have gone nearly two years between announcing the new Siri and delivering it to customers. It’s been an especially high-profile delay because the capabilities were part of the iPhone 16 marketing last year — despite the new Siri not being close to ready. > > Internally, Apple’s AI and marketing teams have pointed fingers at each other. The engineering side has blamed marketing for overhyping features, while marketing maintains it operated on timelines provided to them by the company’s AI teams, according to people with knowledge of the matter. But guys, [this is all in our heads](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/). Everything is fine with Apple and AI! Minor delay, that's all. Internally, things have never been better, per Greg Joswiak, the head of one of the warring factions, per the above. > There also remains a debate over how much AI functionality Apple should be building itself and how much it should push off to partners like OpenAI. And the company has held internal discussions about buying smaller AI-related startups. This was one of the under-covered aspects of WWDC this year – [buried under 'Liquid Glass' as it were](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) – but Apple did expand the partnership with OpenAI quite a bit to cover a number of new features. I'm still of the mindset that [they should outsource basically all of Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/), or at least [all the "world knowledge" stuff](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) until the new Siri is ready to roll. > A key technical challenge: Siri’s brain was essentially split in half for iOS 18\. Apple used an existing system for common tasks, such as setting timers and making calls, and a newer-generation platform for upgraded Siri features. Combining the two architectures led to bugs, necessitating Siri to be rebuilt entirely. > > The issues set off a firestorm within Apple, leading to the company’s senior vice president of AI, John Giannandrea, [being stripped](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-27/what-is-happening-with-apple-s-ai-team-siri-and-robotics-shifts-mark-a-breakup?ref=spyglass.org) of all consumer-facing product oversight. That included his management of Siri and Apple’s secretive robotics unit. Yeah, this is exactly what [I suspected had happened](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/). Because it sounds like it was a similar situation to what happened to Amazon in trying to refresh Alexa last year – [legacy technology of previous "successes" were holding them back](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/), whereas the newer AI companies could start from scratch. Eventually, Amazon and Apple realized they needed to also start from scratch, only after [wasting months](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) on [trying to make it all work](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/) together first. Meanwhile, all was quiet [on the "JG" front](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) this year at WWDC it seemed ([versus last year](https://spyglass.org/the-talk-show-in-3d/)). Which also obviously makes sense. It's still sort of surprising he has stuck around [post fall-out](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/), but if he can now be back behind-the-scenes focused on the underlying technology and not the forward-facing products necessarily, that could be [the right fit](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) going forward. **One more thing:** > For further in the future, the company has been working on an even more ambitious Siri revamp. This would turn the assistant into an always-on device copilot that’s more conversational. Apple also has teams [exploring](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-05-18/how-apple-intelligence-and-siri-ai-went-so-wrong?ref=spyglass.org) a chatbot-like app dubbed Knowledge that can tap into the open web. > > The chatbot project is being led by Robby Walker. He previously ran the team developing Siri, until it was removed from his responsibilities during the shake-up earlier this year. That has spurred concerns within the company over whether his team is up to the latest challenge, Bloomberg [has reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-01/apple-s-wwdc-2025-plan-macos-tahoe-apple-intelligence-ai-ios-26-games-app-mbdlzqpz?ref=spyglass.org). I feel like one thing lost in all of this is the fact that what we're talking about with this Siri revamp, at least as it relates to the features demoed on stage last year that failed to ship, *is not a new fully "conversational" Siri* – that's coming later! – this is just some new personalized capabilities for Siri. The conversational Siri, which would match not only what OpenAI and Google have offered for a while now, but also [what](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) [Alexa+ is](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/) [slowly rolling out](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/), *might be* [*more of a 2027 thing*](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/). Which is wild. Then again, that's sort of a "chatbot" thing. And as Craig Federighi and Joz made clear this week in many interviews (with seemingly anyone and everyone who asked [except for John Gruber](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/)), they never intended to ship a silly, trivial chatbot. Except for, you know, the internal project working on just that. And also the new Siri, one day. [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1169.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-7.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1170.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1-8)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) [Wake Up, AppleWith AI, the cadence has changed. Shipping in two years won’t cut it.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1171.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/image--7--1-4.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/wake-up-apple/) ### Hungry. Foolish. URL: https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-stanford-speech/ Last updated: 2025-07-12T19:47:42.000Z [How Steve Jobs Wrote the Greatest Commencement Speech EverBack in 2005, Jobs spent months trying to figure out what to say to Stanford’s graduates. Newly released materials show how he went from hopelessly flailing to delivering a talk for the ages.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-26.ico)WIREDSteven Levy![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Steve-Jobs-Commencement-Business-AP050612010699.jpg)](https://www.wired.com/story/how-steve-jobs-wrote-the-greatest-commencement-speech-ever/?ref=spyglass.org) If you're looking for something to read today, this is it. [While the Steve Jobs Archive has a beautiful](https://stevejobsarchive.com/exhibits/stay-hungry-stay-foolish?ref=spyglass.org) (as always) commemoration on the 20th anniversary of Jobs famous commencement speech, Levy dives into the background of how it came to be – and how it almost didn't. > Jobs actually wasn’t the graduating class’s top choice. The four senior copresidents polled the class, and number one on the list was comedian Jon Stewart. The class presidents submitted their choices to a larger committee, including alumni and school administrators. One of the copresidents, Spencer Porter, lobbied hard for Jobs. “Apple Computer was big, and my dad worked for Pixar at the time, so it was the obvious thing that I represent the case for him,” Porter says. Indeed, legend has it that Porter was the [inspiration for Luxo Jr.](https://www.thepostathens.com/article/2024/09/pixar-history-short-films-media?ref=spyglass.org), the subject of Pixar’s first short film and later its mascot. When his dad, Tom Porter, brought Spencer to work one day, the story goes, Pixar auteur John Lasseter became entranced by the toddler’s dimensions relative to his father’s and got the idea for a baby lamp. In any case, Stanford’s president, John Hennessy, liked the Jobs option best and made the request. > > By this point Jobs had declined many such invitations. But he’d turned 50 and was feeling optimistic about recovering from cancer. Stanford was close to his house, so no travel was required. Also, as he told his biographer Walter Isaacson, he figured he’d get an honorary degree out of the experience. He accepted. The one wrinkle in Jobs' plan, as Levy notes: Stanford doesn't give out honorary degrees. Thankfully, Jobs did not know that. As he started to put the speech together – in notes he would email to himself, as he so often did, which the Archive posted! – Jobs was struggling with it. > Flailing a bit, he reached out for help from Aaron Sorkin, a master of dialog and an Apple fan, and Sorkin agreed. “That was in February, and I heard nothing,” Jobs told Isaacson. “I finally get him on the phone and he keeps saying ‘Yeah,’ but … he never sent me anything.” > > One day at Pixar, Jobs ran into Tom Porter. As Spencer Porter says it, Jobs asked Tom if his son could send over a few pointers. The students sent Jobs some thoughts. Hennessy told him to forget abstract advice and make the speech personal. While I read the Isaacson book, I totally forgot the bit that Jobs had reached out to Sorkin – *and Sorkin ghosted him*! Sorkin, of course, would go on to write the screenplay for [the movie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve%5FJobs%5F%28film%29?ref=spyglass.org) based on Isaacson's book! (Which is now itself a decade old and I think actually has aged fairly well. Though I still wish Christian Bale would have been cast as Jobs as I think he both looks more like Jobs and in general is more of a chameleon – [I mean](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/just-win-baby?ref=spyglass.org), [have you seen him as Al Davis](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/nfl/news/christian-bale-brings-raiders-drama-to-life-in-upcoming-madden-nfl-movie-unrecognizable-as-al-davis/articleshow/121675680.cms?ref=spyglass.org)?!) But the real key to the whole thing may have been: > Eventually, Jobs recruited his old friend Michael Hawley to help him out. Hawley was a polymath associated with the MIT Media Lab. A brilliant technologist, he was once a cowinner of a worldwide piano competition for “outstanding amateurs,” and he later organized a TED-like conference called EG. Hawley had worked with Jobs at Next and even shared a house with him at the time. They had kept in close touch. > > Hawley’s contribution to the speech has been somewhat of an open secret for years. Still, there is no mention of him in *Becoming Steve Jobs*, by Brent Schlender and Rick Tetzeli, which devoted a chapter to the speech. The Isaacson biography doesn't cite him and neither does, surprisingly, the exhibit at the Steve Jobs Archive. In an online [Festschrift](https://www.media.mit.edu/videos/mike-hawley-fest-2020-04-21/?ref=spyglass.org) for Hawley in April 2020, Jobs’ son Reed spoke about Hawley’s role, including the “don’t puke” email quoted above. But Hawley never spoke publicly about exactly how he helped Jobs—except for one day in 2020, while driving around Boston with the journalist John Markoff a few months before Hawley’s death at age 58 from cancer. Markoff recorded the conversation, none of which has been made public until now. > > As Hawley recounted to Markoff, Jobs first tried to get him to deliver the address. “He told me he was hoodwinked, as he put it, into giving a speech at Stanford and just didn’t know what to say or do,” Hawley said. “He wanted to turn it down, he wanted to get me to do it instead. I said, ‘No way—it’s your gift.’ He then basically begged me, in a very sweet way, a very Steve way, to help him out. And I said sure.” Jobs would go on to work with Hawley to whip the speech into shape, stopping only to prepare for – [what else](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/) – WWDC that year. > The archive exhibit contains eight emails that Jobs sent himself. There’s a gap between early May and June; presumably, Jobs was preparing for a more familiar sort of presentation at that time: his opening keynote at the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference on June 6\. Onstage in San Francisco that day, Jobs was masterful, stalking the stage in alpha fashion, explaining a new phenomenon called podcasting (“We see it as the hottest thing going in radio”) and the Macintosh’s switch from PowerPC to Intel processors. But the Stanford deadline was looming. By June 7, he was back to sending emails to himself. Hawley told him that, just like an undergraduate, he might have to pull an all-nighter to finish the speech. While Jobs nailed that keynote, as always, the other one was clearly still weighing on him right up until the moment he gave it. > Though he almost certainly practiced the 15-minute speech enough to memorize it—in his keynotes he would speak articulately without notes for an hour—he opted here to read from his printed sheets of paper. This was no Stevenote. The audience was unfamiliar. The venue was uncomfortable. He was in a weird robe, not his beloved Issey Miyake turtleneck. > > When he spoke, his voice was steady, but it lacked his typical authority and verve. “He was a little gimpy at the podium,” Hawley told Markoff. “It was one of the few times he was vulnerable in public. That worked out well for him.” He was far less [in command](https://500ish.com/in-command-a511a9a83d98?ref=spyglass.org) than he so often was ([even from a young age](https://spyglass.org/steve-jobs-design/)). But that's exactly why the speech worked. His style matched the message. But that was really only apparent after the fact, because it was so hot at Stanford that day. [Thank god for YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc&ref=spyglass.org): > The initial applause from the students was modest. At his keynotes, Jobs was used to a more thunderous response when announcing, say, a new OS feature or how many iPods sold in the past year. After a few seconds, though, some students stood, seemingly more out of respect than jubilation. Most others followed suit. It isn’t clear that the speaker noticed. He simply looked relieved. “Steve wasn't so sure it went well as we headed out of the stadium,” Hennessy says. “But I assured him it had.” Jobs returned home with his family, glad the episode was over. > > It was only the beginning. > > At that point in time, YouTube was only months old, Twitter didn’t exist, and Facebook didn’t even have its news feed. The national media hadn’t covered the speech. Apple sent out no press releases. But Stanford published the transcript on its primitive website, and people began discovering it. I recently checked my inbox for June 2005 and found multiple copies sent to me from different mailing lists. As the weeks and months went by, more and more people found the speech. Berlin describes it as going “slow-motion viral.” As Levy notes, the speech has now been viewed over 120 million times. > Anyone replaying his speech today knows how much he accomplished in his 56 years. As much as any public figure in our time, Jobs lived according to the advice he offered the students that day. He pursued what he loved and refused to lead anyone else’s life, and the result can be measured in his legendary products. But as life-changing as his gadgets were, none strike the heart and soul as intimately as the Stanford speech. Random example: In 2016, after the Cleveland Cavaliers lost the first two games of the NBA finals, LeBron James [played the speech](https://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/%5F/id/16390925/nba-playoffs-2016-how-lebron-james-cleveland-cavaliers-lifted-curse?ref=spyglass.org) for the disheartened squad in the locker room. It galvanized the team. Kevin Love wrote “stay hungry, stay foolish” on his sneakers. Four games later, James hoisted the championship trophy. As a native Clevelander, and a friend of Levy's, I want to believe he included this bit just to bait me into sharing it. [That remains the only championship Cleveland has won](https://500ish.com/the-the-e6f667597984?ref=spyglass.org) – *in any major sport* – since the 1964 NFL Championship. With Jim Brown. The Super Bowl didn't even exist yet. *Cleveland has never even been to a Super Bowl*, let alone won it. But I digress... I thank Steve Jobs for his speech's role in saving a city. And inspiring literally millions and millions of people, even those now born after he passed away, who have stayed hungry and foolish, as Stewart Brand wanted. [Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish | Steve Jobs ArchiveMarking the 20th anniversary of Steve Jobs’ 2005 Stanford commencement speech with a digitally enhanced version of the video as well as a behind-the-scenes look at how it came to be: from firsthand accounts from people who were connected to the commencement to Steve’s personal drafts.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/favicon-1.svg)Steve Jobs Archive![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Share_image_Stayhungrystayfoolish_bndae1-1)](https://stevejobsarchive.com/exhibits/stay-hungry-stay-foolish?ref=spyglass.org) ### Apple's UI Event in the Age of AI URL: https://spyglass.org/apple-wwdc-25-podcast/ Last updated: 2025-06-12T19:19:54.000Z Are you [WWDC'd](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/) out yet? No? Good, because I do think my chat with Alex Kantrowitz on [his *Big Technology Podcast*](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-apples-failures-say-about-ais-limitations-with-m/id1522960417?i=1000712417595&ref=spyglass.org) is a pretty good listen. Obviously I'm beyond biased here, but I think Alex and I hit on a few tangential topics that are a bit outside the usual boxes – in particular around the ongoing productization of AI and how no one has yet nailed it [outside of OpenAI with ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/). And that actually might leave Apple with a real opportunity here, even after the [internal AI fiasco](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) ([don't let them gaslight you otherwise](https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/)), provided they can get their house in order. Still, there's a concern that they may just not have the right mentality ([guided by the right leadership](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/)) to build in the Age of AI. And that AI itself may change the nature of what it means to build great products. What if – hear me out – AI is the new UI? What if having [a unified intelligent layer woven across a concert of devices](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/) matters more than a set of consistent interfaces and interactions?[1](#one) I think it's worth thinking about, especially if you're Apple and the latter has been your leverage. Still, the decision to [focus on their historic strength in UI](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) even as rivals [triple-down on AI](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) meant it wasn't a total loss of an event for them. (Or is the new 'Liquid Glass' UI *bad*? I know many people seem to think so right now, but I suspect that will change with time, as it always does.) And the subtle doubling down on the leveraging of ChatGPT [seems smart](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) given the state of Siri. (Ultimately [perhaps doomed](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) by their early success, much like Amazon.) Do they ultimately need to bring [a company like](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) Perplexity in house? We'll see. As we will about the decision [to "Mac-ify" the iPad](https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/)... Is Apple doomed or at they just not [reading the room](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/)? Certainly, all these leaks seem to point to some internal issues – and there are [plenty of](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) external ones too. Overall, the vibe around this event just feels "off". I do think that one day, Apple will be able to launch the technology to get your mom safely home from the airport. At the very least, with the upgraded Phone app, she should be able to call you to come pick her up. --- 1 At the same time, what if shoving all of this historical memory into AI [ends up being a mistake](https://spyglass.org/ai-distant-memory/)? ### The Mind-Blowing Mac-ness of iPadOS 26 URL: https://spyglass.org/ipados-26-mac/ Last updated: 2025-07-12T19:46:06.000Z One slightly strange part of [the WWDC Keynote](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) came immediately after Craig Federighi introduced iPadOS 26, which beyond the fresh coat of 'Liquid Glass' paint that the other OSes received, also is being completely overhauled, at least when it comes to multitasking on the device. > "Wow. More windows, a pointier pointer, and a menu bar? Who would've thought? We've *truly* pulled off a *mind-blowing* release!" It was, of course, sarcasm. But he didn't really land it. Because it was also a sort of strange acknowledgement that perhaps Apple should have just been doing things this way all along. Which is to say, like a Mac. So why didn't they until – checks calendar – *some 15 years after Steve Jobs first sat down in the comfortable chair on stage with the device?* Some of it, as Federighi talks about in this interview were technical limitations. The first several iterations of the iPad were certainly more akin, hardware-wise, to an iPhone and not a Mac – bust those "just a big iPhone" jokes out of cold storage. But clearly just as big of a part was that Apple really, really wanted the iPad to be a different type of device. Filling a space in between the iPhone and a Mac, just as Jobs envisioned. I wrote about this issue a year ago, just after Apple unveiled the M4-powered iPad Pro – the first Apple product to get that chip, yes, even before the Mac. In a post entitled ["Apple Invents a Laptop with a Touchscreen"](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/): > To me, perhaps the most interesting element of [Apple's "Let Loose" iPad event yesterday](https://spyglass.org/ipad-on-the-bart/) was an almost throw-away line. "Feels just like using a MacBook," John Ternus, Apple's SVP of Hardware Engineering, said of the trackpad on Apple's new Magic Keyboard accessory for the iPad Pro. > > That's great. But it's also a weird thing for an Apple executive to say... > > For years at this point we've been told that the iPad and MacBook are two distinct Apple products and never the two shall meet. But increasingly, the two have been meeting. Trading notes back and forth, as it were, as they continue to bleed into one device. Really only one thing holds the two sides from fully coming together at this point: a touchscreen. I think for a lot of people – myself included – the iPad did find a way to reside in this magical realm between the other two devices. But as time went on, and as iPhone screens got ever-larger and Macs got even more portable, the iPad was getting squeezed. At the same time, it remained in a unique position for both young people (my children) and older people (my mom): > As the years of using both devices go by, I find myself increasingly reaching up to touch my MacBook screen out of habit. And I grew up on PCs. My five year old simply doesn't understand that touching a MacBook screen does nothing. That's how computers work to her. Meaning, of course, the iPad. But the realities of our world mean that you still can't really use the iPad computing paradigms for all of the computing you need to do. And Apple obviously should have morphed the iPad to meet these opportunities, but they dragged their feet: > So why has Apple waited so long? Well, first and foremost because Steve Jobs said so. Noting that touchscreens were "ergonomically terrible" [at the launch of the iPad in 2010](https://www.cnet.com/tech/computing/steve-jobs-hated-this-idea-for-macs-apple-might-go-there-anyway/?ref=spyglass.org), he went on to say that: "Touch surfaces don't want to be vertical. It gives great demo but after a short period of time, you start to fatigue. And after an extended period of time, your arm wants to fall off. It doesn't work." And so Apple has gone out of their way in these past 14 years to ensure that they won't work on the Mac because they won't be included on the Mac. > > Yes, Apple would have to do a bunch of work on the software side to make macOS touch-ready. But it's Apple. They have the resources and capabilities to do such things. And actually, what I really want first is something they can do right now, if they choose to: [the ability to let your iPad Pro dual boot iPadOS and macOS](https://spyglass.org/ipad-ultra/). Even before the touchscreen conversion, if you have a Magic Keyboard attached, just let me use the iPad as if it's the non-touchscreen monitor of a MacBook. > > But Apple won't do this because it not only blurs but basically \*erases\* the line between the iPad and the Mac. Users want this, Apple does not. Why? Again, legacy. These are two separate products, as told by Steve Jobs. The platform has matured enough that [people want to use it to do everything](https://spyglass.org/ipad-ultra/) – including things you can do on both the iPhone and Mac. And the latter has been more or less impossible not because of the device itself any longer – that situation has inverted, where the hardware is now more akin to a Mac rather than an iPhone – but because of the *software*. And that has been the case for many years now. And rather than do the obvious thing – giving users an option to use their device more like a Mac – Apple tried to come up with all these convoluted ways to handle PC workflows with an iPad twist. Now they're removing the twist. **Finally**. Still, some of the issues that Craig Federighi brings up in [a sit down with Andrew Cunningham of *Ars Technica*](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/06/apples-craig-federighi-on-the-long-road-to-the-ipads-mac-like-multitasking/?ref=spyglass.org) are fair and worth nothing: > "If you want to rewind all the way to the time we introduced Split View and Slide Over \[in iOS 9\], you have to start with the grounding that the iPad is a direct manipulation touch-first device," Federighi told Ars. "It is a foundational requirement that if you touch the screen and start to move something that it responds. Otherwise, the entire interaction model is broken—it's a psychic break with your contract with the device." > > Mac users, Federighi said, were more tolerant of small latency on their devices because they were already manipulating apps on the screen indirectly, but the iPads of a decade or so ago "didn't have the capacity to run an unlimited number of windowed apps with perfect responsiveness." Once the hardware got up to speed, literally, this was undoubtedly the key issue/concern. Because Apple never made a touchscreen Mac (though [surely they must have](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-11/apple-working-on-adding-touch-screens-to-macs-in-major-turnabout?ref=spyglass.org) some test devices/OSes somewhere deep in a lab...), they needed some sort of elegant software solution for handling both touch and cursor. I suppose they could have just disabled the touchscreen if a mouse or trackpad was connected, but that wouldn't have been very Apple-like and you still would have needed a UI that could accommodate both. [Apple could have let you dual-boot macOS directly](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/) – the band-aid solution I advocated for above – but again, that OS wasn't built for an always-on cell connection, for example (though surely they must have some test devices/OSes somewhere deep in a lab...). So every solution was sort of a stop gap until they actually did the legwork to make an OS built for both. > Apple has already tried a windowed multitasking system on modern iPads once this decade, of course, with iPadOS 16's Stage Manager interface. > > Any first crack at windowed multitasking on the iPad was going to have a steep climb. This was the first time Apple or its developers had needed to content with truly dynamically resizable app windows in iOS or iPadOS, the first time Apple had implemented avirtual memory system on the iPad, and the first time Apple had tried true multi-monitor support. Stage Manager was in such rough shape that Apple delayed that year's iPadOS release to keep working on it. > > But the biggest problem with Stage Manager was actually that it just didn't work on a whole bunch of iPads. You could only use it on new expensive models—if you had a new cheap model or even an *older* expensive model, your iPad was stuck with the older Slide Over and Split View modes that had been designed around the hardware limitations of mid-2010s iPads. Yeah, [Stage Manager just wasn't any good](https://spyglass.org/the-mac-ificiation-of-the-ipad/). It again felt like Apple trying too hard to adhere to the iPad-ness of the device while trying to create a more Mac-like solution for those who wanted it. It was a Frankenstein's monster of UX. > "We wanted to offer a new baseline of a totally consistent experience of what it meant to have Stage Manager," Federighi told Ars. "And for us, that meant four simultaneous apps on the internal display and an external display with four simultaneous apps. So, eight apps running at once. And we said that's the baseline, and that's what it means to be Stage Manager; we didn't want to say 'you get Stage Manager, but you get Stage Manager-lite here or something like that. And so immediately that established a floor for how low we could go." > > Fixing that was one of the primary goals of the new windowing system. > > "We decided this time: make everything we can make available," said Federighi, "even if it has some nuances on older hardware, because we saw so much demand \[for Stage Manager\]." I just counted, I have 12 apps running right now on my Mac. And this is really just the bare minimum baseline for how I like to work. When you think about how you work, you may think you just use a few at once, usually a web browser and a couple other things, but there are probably a ton of smaller programs running that you don't really think about. Four apps wasn't going to cut it. > "We have discovered many, many optimizations," Federighi said. "We re-architected our windowing system and we re-architected the way that we manage background tasks, background processing, that enabled us to squeeze more out of other devices than we were able to do at the time we introduced Stage Manager." I have been running iPadOS 26 (on a backup iPad) since the first developer build shipped right after the keynote. I have many thoughts. But I also know the builds are going to morph quite a bit over the beta builds. For now, I would just share that my two main concerns are around screen real-estate and yes, [that pesky web browser](https://spyglass.org/ipados-safari/). But more on those soon. This is a good first step at least. [Apple Invents a Laptop with a TouchscreenThe new iPad Pro is awesome. And a bit silly.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1162.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ipad3-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/) [MacOS on the iPad: A Compromiseor: You Are Not Your Fucking iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1163.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/toast2-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/) [The Mac-ificiation of the iPad Marches On...Whatever you do, don’t suggest that the iPad should just be able to boot macOS…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1164.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Apr-29--2025--04_35_59-PM-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/the-mac-ificiation-of-the-ipad/) [Dreaming of an ‘iPad Ultra’Apple, let us boot iPadOS or macOS on the iPad![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1166.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/MacPad-img-0423-1.png)](https://spyglass.org/ipad-ultra/) [These Are Not Two Separate Devices...Apple leaves the door slightly ajar for an iPad running macOS…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1165.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/iPad-Pro-vs-MacBook-Trade-Off-1-1.jpeg)](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-pro-macos/) ### Liquid Glasslighting URL: https://spyglass.org/spyglasslighting/ Last updated: 2025-07-12T19:45:13.000Z Well this is a first. I'm going to [re-purpose a URL slug](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) for a new post *title*. Both because it was good but more so because it's the right title for what seems to be going on here. That is, Apple executives making the interview rounds [post-WWDC keynote](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/) and suggesting that there's no problem here with [Apple and AI](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/). Sure, they'll admit – because they already have had to do that publicly – to a delay, but everything *could have* shipped as promised, they suggest, it just would not have been up to Apple's famously high standards, you see. The underlying message that they're trying to convey in all these interviews is clear: *calm down, this isn't a big deal, you guys are being a little crazy*. And that, in turn, aims to undercut all the reporting about [the turmoil within Apple](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) – *for* [*years*](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) *at this* [*point*](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/) – that has led to the situation with Siri. Sorry, the situation which they're implying is not a situation. Though, I don't know, normally when a company [shakes up an entire team](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/), that tends to suggest some sort of situation. That, of course, is never mentioned. Nor would you expect Apple – of all companies – to talk openly and candidly about internal challenges. But that just adds to this general wafting smell in the air. The smell of bullshit. [God bless Joanna Stern](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/apple-intelligence-ai-strategy-siri-627ce650?ref=spyglass.org). If there's one interview to watch, [it's her's](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTLk53h7u%5Fk&t=17s&ref=spyglass.org). She pushes Craig Federighi and Greg Joswiak hard on a number of these topics. To the point where Federighi is visibly and literally squirming in his seat. She even gets them to drop the "Apple Intelligence" [marketing speak](https://spyglass.org/there-is-no-apple-ai/) and just say "AI" like everyone else – I mean, she even gets Joz, *the head of marketing*, to do that! It was hard enough of an interview that I'm surprised Apple agreed to it. After all, [they seemingly side-stepped sitting down with John Gruber this year](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) – [*for the first time in a decade*](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/05/29/the-talk-show-live-tickets-2025?ref=spyglass.org) – because he was being too hard on them. But the Stern sit-down actually may reveal why they snubbed Gruber. At one point, Joz sort of snidely remarks that some people had been suggesting the Siri features showed off on stage last year weren't real. That would seem to be a very literal reading of Gruber's ["There's Something Rotten in the State of Cupertino"](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/05/29/the-talk-show-live-tickets-2025?ref=spyglass.org) piece (amongst many others that said [the same basic thing](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/)), but it's pretty clear that it pissed Apple off. Because it suggests that Apple was lying to their users. The reality, of course, is that both things can be true and Apple, as a $3T company, should grow up. The company should be acutely aware that if a product doesn't actually ship, it's not real. They've famously shied away from vaporware over the years and made fun of such things many times for the obvious reason that Apple doesn't do that. And that's because they *did* do that back in the day – [the "Knowledge Navigator"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umJsITGzXd0&ref=spyglass.org) being one fun example of a completely bullshit concept video – but it was the era where Steve Jobs was in exile. When he came back, that stuff and strategy flew out the window. Apple was going to focus on real products and shipping them into real peoples' hands. And they more or less did that in the subsequent years and years aside from a few hiccups here and there – hello and goodbye, [AirPower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AirPower%5F%28Apple%29?ref=spyglass.org). And no one has documented Apple's aversion to vaporware more than Gruber. Which must have made his post especially hard for the company to read. But their response was just so wildly out of tune and proportion. Guess what, Apple? A lot of other products from other companies that were labeled as "vaporwear" also existed internally at those companies in various states at various points. I'm sure that's true of even *most* of the classification – certainly many things existed more than the Knowledge Navigator ever did![1](#one) And so you can't have it both ways in making fun of other companies that do this and then when you do it, think it's an unfair framing and stonewall anyone suggesting such blasphemy. If you didn't ship it, it's not really a product. It's a concept. It's a promise broken. You want to change that? Change it. Ship it. And if you can't, don't talk about it. I don't make the rules. You do! Or did. Anyway, back to the matter at hand (but notably not *in hands)*. Beyond the specific Siri delay issue, it all just feels so disingenuous for Apple to keep insisting that everything is just fine with regard to Apple and AI. That may ultimately prove true in the long arc of time, but you simply don't go through the internal turmoil – and again, shakeups – if everything is going great. [Just ask Meta](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/). Apple clearly wants to frame this as people perhaps being upset because they simply don't understand their intentions here. They don't want to ship a "chatbot", as Joz keeps derisively repeating in all of these sit downs over and over again. They want to do much more than that, baking AI into every product. I think that's [actually a fine strategy](https://spyglass.org/apple-intelligence-ai-arms-race/)! But only if your AI works really well. And well, the state of Siri – not just the still-currently-vaporware stuff – but [the actual shipped stuff](https://spyglass.org/siri-generations/) [over the past 15 or so years](https://spyglass.org/this-is-the-year-of-siri/), suggests that it doesn't. And when Stern pushes them that even with the AI stuff that *has* shipped within the products, that she's not really using any of it, Joz implies two things: first, that she might not even be aware that she's using some of it, because it's behind-the-scenes (I'm going to go ahead and guess she's aware) and second, that while she may not be getting utility out of Apple's AI tools, many others are – such as you know, himself. This is the new ["you're holding it wrong"](https://www.wired.com/2010/06/iphone-4-holding-it-wrong/?ref=spyglass.org). The best answer in Stern's sit down – maybe the only good answer out of Apple – was given by Federighi towards the end: > But right now Apple Intelligence tools aren’t very good. When I asked why that is and why I find myself using competitor AI products all the time, Federighi had the most honest answer I’ve heard from the company. > > He said when the internet came along, no one was asking Apple why it didn’t have a search engine or an e-commerce site like Amazon. > > “The internet was vast,” he said. “It was an opportunity for many, many companies and for users to do a wide diversity of things. It was also a huge enabler for Apple. Apple made the internet accessible in a lot of ways—more than anyone. That didn’t mean every experience that you take on was going to happen inside of Apple.” This is perhaps the approach Apple actually *should be taking here*, to focus on their devices being the springboard for the AI tools and services built by *others*, [as Ben Thompson has argued](https://stratechery.com/2025/apple-retreats/?ref=spyglass.org). To be a platform. But that also goes against basically every other move by Apple of late to [further lockdown](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/) the [platforms](https://spyglass.org/apple-sells-soul/) they do [control](https://spyglass.org/apple-epic-battle-royale/), and to increasingly try to [do it all](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) themselves. I'm just not sure [Apple's collective head](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/) is in the right place any more to actually be that type of company providing that type of opportunity to others. Certainly not without their cut. And I'm sorry, the hardware sales won't be enough here. They need new vectors of growth [with the iPhone plateauing](https://spyglass.org/apples-amazing-iphone-problem/). Mark my words, if and when they get their AI offerings up to some level of speed, they're going to start searching for ways to monetize it directly. But first things first, they have to get their AI house in order and catch up. Or, I'm sorry, to hear Apple tell it, there's nothing wrong. Just a minor delay and internally at Apple it's better than it has ever been. You're crazy to think otherwise. **One more thing:** Gruber's episode of *The Talk Show Live* took place last night without those aforementioned guests from Apple. Instead, he was joined by Nilay Patel and who else: Joanna Stern.[2](#two) [Apple Tries to Hide AI Under Liquid GlassWWDC 25 certainly wasn’t six out of five stars…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1157.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/Screenshot-2025-06-10-at-2.18.36---PM-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/) [Profiles in Courage: Apple EditionWhen an event decline is sign of decline…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1158.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_apple_logo_upside_down_being_dipped_in_tar_--ar_169__3738de14-0baf-4ac4-b1bf-8223efea77b7_3-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1159.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-6.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) --- 1 While Knowledge Navigator may have never launched, that concept was remarkably prescient of what computing now more or less looks like – well, maybe minus the literal talking head. But it's really sort of an iPad with Siri – or really, an iPad [with ChatGPT](https://spyglass.org/siri-chatgpt/) because Siri can't do any of that stuff. 2 I haven't had a chance to watch yet as it was live at around 3am my time in London. But I'm looking forward to booting up my Vision Pro for the first time in a few weeks [to watch the replay of in 3D again this year](https://spyglass.org/the-talk-show-in-3d/)! ### Apple Tries to Hide AI Under Liquid Glass URL: https://spyglass.org/liquid-glasslighting/ Last updated: 2025-07-09T20:36:28.000Z If the year was 2022, this would have been a pretty solid WWDC keynote from Apple. Unfortunately, it's 2025. Ever since the rise of Android to challenge the iPhone all those years ago, Apple and Google have stood atop the tech landscape when it comes to their big developer-focused events. And their temporal proximity to each other each calendar year have always highlighted the key similarities and differences. But never have they been more different than they were this year. Google I/O was AI, AI, AI, AI, AI, AI. Apple's WWDC was UI, UI, UI, UI, UI, UI.[1](#one) [One felt like a company flexing](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/). The other felt like a company hiding. To be fair to Apple, I did think the event was about as good as could have reasonably been expected. But that's because expectations were so low given [everything that has gone on](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-siri/) since [last year's WWDC](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2024/), where the company famously over-promised on the AI front and [woefully under-delivered](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/). Subsequent reporting make it quite clear that [there's turmoil inside Apple](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) that hasn't been seen in quite some time and it stems from [a poor strategy and decisions](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/) made years ago. Which is to say, [Apple set up this year's WWDC to fail long before this year's WWDC](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/). And they did the best they could to wrap it in something to conceal the scars. That included, notably, a fresh coat of paint across all of their OS surfaces, which is always a good way to distract from what's going on underneath. Unfortunately, it looks like Wall Street isn't buying it, quite literally. And more importantly for Apple, it's not clear [that developers are either](https://spyglass.org/vibe-coding-apple-devs/). Again, that's the whole point of WWDC. And Apple spent just as much time talking about an update to their Phone app as they did about the current state of Apple Intelligence. But again, what else were they going to do? We all know that the entire team and project [has been shaken up behind-the-scenes](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/), so aside from the one brief mention that last year's promised updates to Siri "needed even more time to meet our high quality bar and we look forward to sharing more about it in the coming year" – the absolute bare-minimum that needed to be said, which was just a rehash of the statement on the matter already given weeks ago – there wasn't much Apple could say on the topic of AI. Certainly, they weren't going to showcase a bunch of future projects and features that were in early development after last year. I suppose they could have said something like, "Hey, we fucked up last year and honestly, we've been fucking up for the past few years with regard to AI. This is on us and we own it. We've taken the steps needed to get better and we're working as fast as we can to earn back your trust in this vital space. Stay tuned." But come on, they weren't going to do that on stage. I'd like to think Steve Jobs may have had a "Thoughts on AI" ready to roll on the website, but well, [that was a different era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoughts%5Fon%5FFlash?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Jobs%20dismissed%20the%20idea%20that,any%20kind%20of%20web%20content.%22). We didn't even get a peep about the other complete and utter shitshow currently engulfing Apple: [the App Store fiasco](https://spyglass.org/tear-down-the-app-store-walls/). *Not one word*, let alone an olive branch extended or a policy changed. Not even [a mention](https://spyglass.org/epic-apple-beatdown/) of [the policy](https://spyglass.org/apple-sells-soul/) that was [*forced* to be changed by the courts](https://spyglass.org/apple-denied/). Nada. Zip. Zilch. Instead what Apple tried to do yesterday was obfuscate their AI situation by constantly mentioning it in small, subtle ways, implying that it's just another thing working behind those scenes for you. And sure, there's some level of truth to that, but again, it's not really what anyone wanted to hear. And the one potentially exciting announcement on the AI front, the opening up of Apple's models for developers to use with the Foundation Models Framework, leaked well ahead of time, [so it was expected](https://spyglass.org/apple-core-ai/). And while the on-device element of those models should be interesting, they'll also undoubtedly be quite underpowered relative to what developers are used to with the current state of the art in AI. Speaking of, as an aside, it's sort of crazy that Apple hasn't yet been able to snuff out who is leaking everything announced well ahead of time. Obviously, Mark Gurman, as always, got most of it, from the naming schemes on down, but there were several others, notably *9to5Mac*, that got a bunch of smaller features too. This has been going on for years now and no stone was left unleaked this year. And this was the year where any element of surprise and delight would have mattered to combat the AI situation. Can you imagine if the new "Liquid Glass" UI hadn't leaked ahead of time, for example? Or even [the silly new naming scheme](https://spyglass.org/apple-veers-into-microsoft-branding-territory/)? These would have been big, topical stories that could have helped Apple distract from what is going on internally with AI. I'm not saying I feel badly that this is happening to them, I'm just saying it's *wild* that they have not been able to stop it. And such a leaky boat is never a good sign of [overall company health](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/), of course. Back to the event itself, a few other notes: The actual biggest surprise may have been the fact that Apple seems to be doubling and tripling down with OpenAI. ChatGPT got specific shout-outs as a part of Image Playgrounds (albeit in a comically restrictive and very Apple way), as a part of Visual Intelligence (it was already a part of this tool, but the new screen scanning element brings extended functionality), in Shortcuts, and most notably now as a part of Xcode. This was a particular surprise since the rumors had suggested that Anthropic's Claude coding assistant [might be the partnership Apple would pursue](https://spyglass.org/apple-anthropic-xcode-coding/) here. Perhaps they couldn't get a deal done in time, or maybe Apple does just want to test it more internally. Still, it's a big win for OpenAI's coding capabilities, obviously. The new Visual Intelligence features overall do seem interesting and useful, but is also a lot of what Google has been doing for a while now. That was a pretty constant theme here as well. And that's long been the case, but seems more acute now given Google's clear lead in AI. Having now seen how they're framing the new Games app, I think I feel even more confident in [my idea a few weeks back that they might use this space to eventually split gaming apps](https://spyglass.org/apple-gaming-app-store/) – and importantly, their revenue cuts – away from the actual App Store. They're not doing that now, but I think the groundwork is being laid right before our eyes. We'll see. The updates to Spotlight in macOS 26 – "Tahoe" the only OS that gets to have an additional name for legacy reasons, I guess – seem like a big deal for power users. And yes, will likely Sherlock tools such as Raycast. But for "regular" users, they shouldn't matter much. Still, it's a nice step towards consolidating everything into one overlay. Eventually, hopefully Siri – or whatever the newly rebuilt Apple Assistant AI is called – resides here as well. One text box to rule them all. Speaking of, might this be the last time we see Mike Rockwell on stage in his Vision Pro capacity instead of his new AI capacity, perhaps next year? Some of the updates to visionOS were interesting – spatial widgets and a spatial web! – but would be far more so if matched with a device that people actually used at scale. And I don't think allowing two people in the same room to use two Vision Pros is the ticket. Somewhere, Jony Ive was probably screaming though. Perhaps into [his new OpenAI device](https://spyglass.org/the-anti-iphone/)... At least 'Personas' look a lot better. But perhaps because of the aforementioned overpromising and under-delivering last year, I'm more than a bit worried these won't be as good as they were showed in the demo video. Of course, I'm not sure how much that really matters again, until more people start actually buying and using the device. Apple [clearly](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-pivot-to-enterprise/) – [*clearly*](https://spyglass.org/vision-pro-lowes/) – has a plan to offload some of that usage (and cost) to the enterprise in the meantime. Apple saved the biggest update for last: iPadOS basically morphing into macOS. This is what [many of us](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-pro-macos/) [have been](https://spyglass.org/ipad-ultra/) [clamoring for](https://spyglass.org/the-mac-ificiation-of-the-ipad/) over the years – [or a variation of it](https://spyglass.org/macos-on-the-ipad/) – and Craig Federeghi seemed to knowingly nod to [this evolution in thinking](https://spyglass.org/the-ipad-macbook-pro/) for Apple [driven by demand](https://spyglass.org/apples-faster-horses-strategy/). Windows, pointy cursors, and menu bars, oh my. [I'm still worried](https://spyglass.org/ipados-safari/) that Safari on the iPad will be too tablet-fied for a lot of workflows still, but we'll see. I immediately downloaded the developer beta on a backup iPad and I'll have some initial thoughts soon. But overall, it's a promising step. Federighi ended where he began: talking in the most general ways possible about Apple Intelligence. Again, this was all part of the sleight of hand. Apple can say they were talking about AI the whole time, but they weren't really talking about the AI that everyone else wanted them to talk about. Because they have nothing to talk about in that regard right now. Hopefully next year. **One more thing:** Apple clearly made the right call in keeping the event nice and tight at 90 minutes. They probably could have shaved it down to an hour – again, we talked about the Phone app for about 3 minutes – but that may have seemed too sad for a flagship event. They sucked it up and powered through this year, ending with a nice little ditty too, ["Six Out of Five Stars"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=%5FE821In6oKo&list=WL&index=59&ab%5Fchannel=AppleDeveloper&ref=spyglass.org). Overall, I'd probably give this WWDC two out of five stars. But it easily could have been a zero due to their mistakes of the past. 👇 ****More from Spyglass this week... (**[****Sign Up**](#/portal/signup) | [****Upgrade**](#/portal/account/plans)****)** [Reasoning About the Reasoning of Reasoning ModelsDid Apple just nuke the AI industry? Lol, no.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1150.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_robotic_brain_as_the_top_of_a_nuclear_fall_out_cloud__9766c054-f4e2-4f0a-9a8e-d6214680f844_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/have-these-researchers-used-siri/) [Siri Doomed Apple in AI, Just Like Alexa Did with AmazonTheir previous “success” in assistants became albatrosses…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1151.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_an_albatross_around_the_neck_of_a_robot_--ar_21_--v_7_17d33bc8-4e5a-4bb7-9bb2-8a1530dc4a28_1-1-2.png)](https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/) [Atlas Would Have Shrugged at ‘Mountainhead’Playing it straight would have been a better absurd commentary on our current times than this absurdity![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1152.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/ramy-youssef-cory-michael-smith-steve-carell-jason-schwartzman-3-1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/atlas-would-have-shrugged-at-mountainhead/) [The Menu Bar, HyperCard, the Double-ClickJust a few of the ways Bill Atkinson changed computing at Apple…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1153.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/billbadge.jpg)](https://spyglass.org/rip-bill-atkinson/) [Meta’s $10B+ AI ResetZuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts – including a new don’t-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talent…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1149.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_llama_getting_resuscitated_--ar_169_--v_7_abc01d06-74ab-4e1f-ae5f-fa4a530f9a94_0.png)](https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/) --- 1 Oh, and a dash of *F1*. Sort of weird to have WWDC be a full-on cross-promotion. Then again, if I needed the movie to be a hit, [as Apple does](https://spyglass.org/apple-tv-plus-strategy/) after [a string](https://spyglass.org/the-fountain-of-youth-apple-tv-meh/) of [mediocre](https://spyglass.org/the-gorge-apple-tv/)\-to-[bad](https://spyglass.org/fly-me-to-the-moon-apple/) films, and [an absolute shitshow](https://spyglass.org/apple-hollywood-seppuku/) – you get a sense Apple has a lot of these of late? – also [involving Brad Pitt](https://spyglass.org/apple-wolfs-review/), I'd probably pull out all the stops too. All I'm saying is that there is a lot riding on it. Okay, I'll end the racing puns. [It looks good!](https://spyglass.org/f1-apple/) ### Meta's $10B+ AI Reset URL: https://spyglass.org/meta-scale-ai-reset/ Last updated: 2025-07-09T20:36:04.000Z For months and months, all we've heard is how much Meta's AI is ["killing it."](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/meta-restructures-ai-team-thats-killing-it?ref=spyglass.org) Or "crushing" in [bro parlance](https://spyglass.org/do-you-even-tech-bro/). They were saying it so much, so often, to anyone who would listen that it was clearly a bit suspect. Or "sus" in ['how do you do, fellow kids'](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/how-do-you-do-fellow-kids?ref=spyglass.org) slang. "The best models!" Even when ([non-manipulated](https://www.theverge.com/meta/645012/meta-llama-4-maverick-benchmarks-gaming?ref=spyglass.org)) data suggested otherwise, [as did delays](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/163692792/meta-is-delaying-the-rollout-of-its-flagship-ai-model?ref=spyglass.org). "A billion users!" Said with what was undoubtedly the backing of growth hacked data that would make even the most die-hard Google+ PM [blush](https://spyglass.org/somethings-afootball/#:~:text=%F0%9F%A4%96%20Meta%E2%80%99s%20AI,%5BThe%20Information%20%F0%9F%94%92%5D). As it turns out, that crushing was sus. You don't need actual data to know this, you just need to watch what Meta is *actually* *doing*. Which is scrambling to get their AI house in order. Which you typically don't do when your technology and products are "slaying"... Case in point, it was interesting when [news broke over the weekend](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-08/meta-in-talks-for-scale-ai-investment-that-could-top-10-billion?ref=spyglass.org) that Meta was planning for a massive investment into Scale AI. Not only does Meta typically not do those kind of investments, the amount being reported – $10B+ – is outlandish even for a company as profitable as they are. For context, when Microsoft invested in Meta (then called Facebook) back in the day, they put in $240M. That money valued the social network at $15B.[1](#one) Times have changed. Such a deal was seemingly more akin to Microsoft's investment in OpenAI. But Scale AI is a very different company than OpenAI, their focus is not on actually building foundation models, but on facilitating those builds, augmenting the data, and other adjacencies. It seems sort of like a weird business for Meta to be backing given how many fingers they have in other models (many by their rivals). And if Meta wanted the business as a way to diversify from their all-important advertising revenue, why not buy it versus investing in it? Well, besides the fact that [they undoubtedly would not be allowed to](https://spyglass.org/meta-trial/)... Today, the other shoe dropped. [Here's Cade Metz and Mike Isaac for *The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/technology/meta-new-ai-lab-superintelligence.html?ref=spyglass.org): > Meta is preparing to unveil a new artificial intelligence research lab dedicated to pursuing “superintelligence,” a hypothetical A.I. system that exceeds the powers of the human brain, as the tech giant jockeys to stay competitive in the technology race, according to four people with the knowledge of the company’s plans. > > Meta has tapped Alexandr Wang, 28, the founder and chief executive of the A.I. start-up Scale AI, to join the new lab, the people said, and has been in talks to [invest billions of dollars in his company](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/technology/meta-scale-ai-investment.html?ref=spyglass.org) as part of a deal that would also bring other Scale employees to the company. Meta has offered seven- to nine-figure compensation packages to dozens of researchers from leading A.I. companies such as OpenAI and Google, with some agreeing to join, according to the people. Forget about a ["hackquisition"](https://spyglass.org/hackquisition/), this is... I can't even come up with a quip. It's just sort of wild. It sure sounds like Meta, at the direction of Zuckerberg, is potentially investing an eleven-figure sum into Scale in order to gain access to their CEO and some of their talent for this new "lab". So Meta is sort of buying Scale's talent but seemingly *not* actually the company – which is what all of these would-be but can't-be acquirers say these days. Only here, I think it's probably true. This is decidedly **not** like those [other strange deals](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-acquires-inflection-ai/) where a startup [is paid out](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-deal-terms/), stripped of their talent, and left "running" with someone there to [answer a phone](https://spyglass.org/microsoft-inflection-ftc/) for when the government calls to inquire about the deal. This is perhaps more akin to what [Google did with Character.ai](https://spyglass.org/google-character-ai-deal/) to bring Noam Shazeer back in house, but at an even bigger scale – because Scale is a far bigger business than Character.ai is and was. Unlike, say [Meta's AI business](https://spyglass.org/llama-milk/), Scale is a business that by all accounts *is* actually "crushing". So this money, beyond what is presumably going to Wang himself, will undoubtedly be used to *actually* keep going. *\[*[*See update on the money below*](#update)*\]* At the same time, there have long been questions about where a company like Scale ends up in the AI revolution. They've already had to morph and shift multiple times to expand from data labeling to doing more direct work to evaluate and feed models. And those shifts will undoubtedly continue as AI continues to change and mature, with more of what Scale does going in-house at the large companies. And Wang started Scale nearly a decade ago when AI as we know it today wasn't yet a thing, it was all about computer vision back then. This also doesn't seem as straightforward as some of the other "hackquisitions" since again, Scale isn't actually building LLMs, so what type of talent is Meta actually scooping up here? Beyond very expensive talent, clearly! Also, will Meta get some sort of priority access to use Scale for their own models? Again, unclear. But that's not actually the point here, now is it? If it ends up as a good and helpful investment for Meta, that will simply be very expensive icing on the multi-billion-pound cake. More on this "lab" from [Kurt Wagner and Riley Griffin for *Bloomberg*](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-10/zuckerberg-recruits-new-superintelligence-ai-group-at-meta?ref=spyglass.org): > Mark Zuckerberg, frustrated with [Meta Platforms Inc.](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/META:US?ref=spyglass.org)’s shortfalls in AI, is assembling a team of experts to achieve artificial general intelligence, recruiting from a brain trust of AI researchers and engineers who’ve met with him in recent weeks at his homes in Lake Tahoe and Palo Alto. > > Zuckerberg has prioritized recruiting for the secretive new team, referred to internally as a superintelligence group, according to people familiar with his plans. He has an audacious goal in mind, these people said. In his view, Meta can and should outstrip other tech companies in achieving what’s known as artificial general intelligence or AGI, the notion that machines can perform as well as humans at many tasks. Once Meta reaches that milestone, it could weave the capability into its suite of products — not just social media and communications platforms, but also a range of AI tools, including the Meta chatbot and its AI-powered Ray-Ban glasses. > > Zuckerberg aims to hire around 50 people for the new team, including a new head of AI research, almost all of whom he’s recruiting personally. He’s rearranged desks at the company’s Menlo Park headquarters so the new staff will sit near him, the people said, asking to remain anonymous discussing private plans. This almost sounds as if Zuckerberg is Steve Jobs in the early 1980s creating the Macintosh team within Apple.[2](#two) Such a comparison would flatter anyone, but it does read like that's essentially what Zuckerberg is trying to create here after Meta's initial attempts at AI haven't really panned out. [Are there going to be pirate flags](https://www.folklore.org/Pirate%5FFlag.html?sort=date?sort%3Ddate&ref=spyglass.org)?[3](#three) > Zuckerberg has spoken openly about making artificial intelligence a priority for his company. In the last two months, he’s gone into “founder mode,” according to people familiar with his work, who described an increasingly hands-on management style. > > The CEO’s desire to micromanage the recruitment effort is driven in part by frustration over the quality of and response to Llama 4, the latest version of Meta’s large language model to power chatbots and other services. Uh oh, you now things are serious when someone [busts out "founder mode"](https://spyglass.org/spending-apples-cash/#:~:text=%F0%9F%91%B7%20Founder%20Mode,%5BPaul%20Graham%5D). Back in the day, we used to know such Zuckerberg moments as ["Lockdown"](https://techcrunch.com/2010/10/06/facebook-lockdown-redesign/?ref=spyglass.org). But again, times change. > Those missteps pushed Zuckerberg to get more involved and led to his interest in building out the new team, according to people familiar with the matter. He seeded a WhatsApp group chat among senior leaders called “Recruiting Party” to discuss potential targets for the team. Members of the chat group have been engaged in discussions at all hours of the day to identify talent. > > Zuckerberg has been compiling his own list of recruits and likes to be the first point of contact during outreach. The CEO hopes that with the new bench, Meta will see improvements to its Llama models and better AI tools for voice and personalization features, the people said. > > It’s not yet clear how the Superintelligence Labs group will work alongside Meta’s existing AI teams. Some employees are expected to move over to the new unit, according to people familiar with the plans. Also of note: Zuckerberg sure seems to be [changing his tone](https://spyglass.org/meta-open-ai/) quite a bit when it comes to AGI. Whereas he used to be quick to dismiss such talk as other searching for their ["AI God"](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-ai/) and that there wouldn't be [one model to rule them all](https://spyglass.org/consumer-ai-services-apps/), now he's... getting into that race, it seems. As for where that leaves their commitment to ["open source"](https://spyglass.org/zuckerberg-llama-open-source-ai/) (read: open weight), it's not clear from these posts. Nor is it clear if Yann LeCun, the Turing Award winner who has long overseen Meta's AI efforts (ever since Facebook missed out on acquiring DeepMind to Google back in the day) is fully on board with this as he's famously been quite skeptical of the approaches that the other AI labs are taking, at least as it related [to AGI](https://spyglass.org/agi-is-here-and-will-never-be-here/) – or sorry, "[Superintelligence](https://spyglass.org/an-ai-call-to-arms/)" or whatever you want to [call it](https://spyglass.org/sam-altman-seeks-deep/). Will Wang be at this new lab under LeCun? (It seems like no?) Or is this a full Meta AI reboot? Or actually, more of a starting from scratch, which is what it sounds like? Which again, is not something you typically do if you've been "killing it". Which won't do Meta any favors in the outside world [trusting in what they're conveying](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165336673/metas-push-into-defense-tech-reflects-cultural-shift?ref=spyglass.org). But if they win the race to AGI/Superintelligence/Whatever, I guess that won't really matter. Will investors like this deal? Right now, with the news breaking, the stock is little-changed in after-hours. They're probably still parsing this as it is a bit weird of a deal. Meta is undoubtedly fine with that, [especially if it means](https://spyglass.org/google-meta-antitrust/) any government officials don't quite know what to make of it either. Certainly it doesn't seem like Meta will be [easing up on the CapEx](https://spyglass.org/tech-salary-capex/) anytime soon. And they may actually need to *increase* it in order for this new team to catch up. Get ready for [more ads in feed](https://spyglass.org/without-instagram-meta-is-screwed/)! ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/ChatGPT-Image-Jun-10--2025--10_20_53-AM-1.png) --- **Update**: More details on the deal [from Cory Weinberg at *The Information*](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-pay-nearly-15-billion-scale-ai-stake-startups-28-year-old-ceo?rc=lsmcir&ref=spyglass.org), including that the amount is set to be $14.8B paid to Scale shareholders for Meta to buy a 49% stake \-- [sound familiar?](https://spyglass.org/elon-musk-openai-chaos-bid/) \-- in the company and bring Wang and some of his team over to operate within Meta's new AI team. --- **Update June 13, 2025**: Some further thoughts/analysis... [Hackquisitions & HackquihiresA look at Meta’s Scale deal in relation to other such deals…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1178.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_two_figures_in_shadows_one_is_a_llama_carrying_a_bag__2784a812-7855-43e7-ae37-02ff1794096d_3.png)](https://spyglass.org/hackquisitions-hackquihires/) --- 1 By the way, perhaps the best deal Steve Ballmer ever did. Meta is now valued at $1.75T. Of course, Microsoft sold their 1.6% starting back at Facebook's IPO back in 2012, and by 2014 they had fully exited. Today those shares, again, bought for $240M, would be worth $27.84B. 2 A team which, yes, Jobs actually and [famously co-opted from Jef Raskin](https://spyglass.org/aboard-the-pirate-ship/). 3 To be honest, [Apple could probably use some of that spirit again](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/)... ### Reasoning About the Reasoning of Reasoning Models URL: https://spyglass.org/have-these-researchers-used-siri/ Last updated: 2026-06-10T13:02:28.000Z Twas the night before WWDC and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, but a group of researchers studying AI reasoning models [were](https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/illusion-of-thinking?ref=spyglass.org)! Look, [it *is* a bit curious](https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/06/08/apple-research-lrms?ref=spyglass.org) that on the cusp of [this year's WWDC](https://spyglass.org/wwdc-2025/) – an event where everyone is [expecting Apple to underwhelm](https://spyglass.org/apple-you-cowards/) when it comes to AI announcements – a team of Apple researchers put out a paper suggesting that AI itself is underwhelming. More specifically, that perhaps the hottest sector of AI advances this past year, so-called "reasoning", breaks down at a certain scale. And, more damning, what such systems are doing isn't really reasoning at all. I'm not suggesting their work isn't legitimate or even correct – I'll leave such assessment to others, that's above my pay grade – I'm simply pointing out that it's fairly convenient for Apple to have any element of the AI revolution called into question just as they're about to be dragged through the mud on the topic once again. How does the saying go? Timing of your research papers is everything... Anyway, regardless of the 'when', I think the 'what' is a more interesting question here. Or maybe it's the 'why'. Or even the 'who'. As in, *what* are we even talking about here? And *why* does it matter? And *who* is even talking about it? That is to say, to me, on the surface, this all feels a bit straw man-y. I know we call them "reasoning" systems, but is anyone actually arguing that reasoning – at least as we know it as human beings – is what is actually going on here? That might suggest that AI is operating exactly as a human brain might. Which in turn might suggest that we've achieved AGI or actually, perhaps something far greater. But as far as I know, outside of a few fringes, no one actually believes that. And so if there's a revelation here, it may simply be that using a simplified marketing term which directly equates a technology to a human capability is a mistake. Since again, they're not actually the same thing. And that's a part of what this paper is taking down. And that's probably fair on some level because again, it's what is being implied even if only for marketing purposes. And the AI companies seem happy to ride that wave because it does make the whole thing seem more magical and impressive, or, at the very least, more understandable to most people. But again, it's not the same thing. Because an LLM or "LRM" (Large Reasoning Model) is not a human brain. [Steven Sinofsky does a nice job](https://hardcoresoftware.learningbyshipping.com/p/233-the-illusion-of-thinking-thoughts?ref=spyglass.org) taking this aspect down. I know that Gary Marcus seems excited – ["A knockout blow for LLMs?"](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-knockout-blow-for-llms) is his title which naturally adheres to [Betteridge's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s%5Flaw%5Fof%5Fheadlines?ref=spyglass.org). But actually, his post is also far more nuanced than the title suggests. And his higher level takeaway I think is the right one to have: just because LLMs (or LRMs) might not be the path to AGI (itself a quagmire of definitions, as everyone is well aware by now), it doesn't mean this technology isn't interesting or useful. And that's also in line with basically everything everyone says at this point [from Demis Hassabis on down](https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/google-deepmind-ceo-demis-hassabis?ref=spyglass.org): that it's going to take a few more breakthroughs of an unspecified variety before we truly achieve what at least a sizable subset of people would consider to be AGI. And to me, that implies technology outside of the bounds of LLMs, which were step one. LRMs may be step two, or they may be step 1.5\. It doesn't really matter. The point is that they're not the direct path to AGI. But again, as far as I know, they never really were. Just a piece. So taking them down here seems more like a simple semantics argument. Yes, these systems are not "reasoning" as you or I might. Instead they're doing insanely large scale deduction and pattern-matching. Far more interesting is the takeaway that may fall victim to near-total collapse at a certain threshold. That's obviously a problem for scaling. And presumably it's one that the model makers were already aware of – I'd be pretty surprised if they weren't? We'll see what at least a few of their responses are at some point soon, I suspect. Perhaps during the WWDC Keynote? This also feels like one of those problems which will be resolved by something else coming along to augment such a system – something which the paper itself suggests at points. Because again, none of this is a turnkey solution to AGI. So is this a "knockout blow for LLMs"? No. Is it a knockout blow for AI? No. Is it anything other than a reminder that what we're calling "reasoning" here is not actually reasoning like a human being does? Again, it may just be some nice research showing the exact failure points, right now, of such systems. Does it mean Apple [might](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/) actually *not* be [behind in AI](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-chatbot/)? I mean, that's always a possibility just given how early we are in the movement and how fast it's all moving. But my general thought is that in this particular race, [they are behind](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/). Not because of the potential outcomes here, but because they're not learning and adapting at the pace [that everyone else is](https://spyglass.org/google-slams-on-the-ai-gas/) and that will make said outcomes less likely. But that's [not a very Apple way to go about things](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/), historically. Which is what the real problem is here. An old company needing to learn new tricks – and overcoming the [natural urge to believe](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) such tricks are cheap and only worth paying attention to when fully solidified. If that was indeed their reasoning, it's as flawed as reasoning that reasoning models were reasoning like human beings. [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1141.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) [Failure Has Many Fathers at Apple Right NowThe dysfunction seemingly runs deep at the most valuable company…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1142.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_the_apple_logo_upside_down_hovering_above_a_flame_--ar__2efb455e-65dc-4a24-9739-b0d3441898e7_0-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-fail/) [Apple Joins the NavyThey need to find the pirate mentality again…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1143.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_pirate_flag_flying_on_a_ship_--ar_21_--profile_zegoym_52d79c06-a6a1-4932-988d-ae839a3fa21c_2-5.png)](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) ### Siri Doomed Apple in AI, Just Like Alexa Did with Amazon URL: https://spyglass.org/siri-doomed-ai/ Last updated: 2025-07-07T21:34:57.000Z [Apple’s struggles to update Siri lead to investor concerns over AI strategyiPhone-maker hit by technological challenges that have led to delays to the full rollout of its ‘Apple Intelligence’ features![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/ftlogo-v1-3Abrand-ft-logo-square-coloured-10)Financial Times![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net-2Fproduction-2F1fd38e60-2de3-476f-918f-666481d1f552.jpg)](https://www.ft.com/content/785aeb00-6784-4d64-a706-0cb44288e6be?ref=spyglass.org) Seemingly not much new in this report, but the *FT* was able to pull a few "recently departed employees" out of the woodwork to give some context as to why Apple is where it is with regard to AI, and specifically, Siri – here's Michael Acton: > Recently departed employees told the Financial Times that the Silicon Valley giant has been hit by challenges with updating Siri using cutting-edge large language models that can deliver more sophisticated responses to spoken prompts. > > Apple has been attempting to build its own LLMs over the machine learning technology that currently powers Siri, a product already used in hundreds of millions of its bestselling devices, with the aim of creating a truly conversational assistant. Those "employees" get upgraded to "executives" for this next bit: > Former executives said that the process of integrating the technologies has led to bugs, an issue not faced by competitors such as OpenAI which have built generative AI-based voice assistants from scratch. > > One former Apple executive said: “It was obvious that you were not going to revamp Siri by doing what executives called ‘climbing the hill’,” meaning to incrementally develop the product rather than rebuilding it from the ground up. > > “It’s clear that they stumbled,” the person added. Yes, it should have been obvious that this "climbing the hill" approach would not work. [I wrote about this very topic a year ago](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/), noting that both Apple and Amazon were likely struggling to launch into the current AI race because their past "successes" in Alexa and Siri, respectively, were [holding them back](https://spyglass.org/siri-apple-ai-trouble/) in this way. Whereas once they were dinosaurs presiding over the land, now they were [beasts looking up at the incoming asteroid](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/). It would have been easier to just rebuild the entire systems from the ground up, but that would have also meant abandoning or at least disrupting a user base in the tens of millions (or more in the case of Apple with Siri baked into *every* device). It seems pretty clear now that [Amazon ended up doing this full rebuild](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) behind-the-scenes after trying the band-aid approach Apple has been trying – again, "climbing the hill". And it's probably related to why they've been [so slow to roll out Alexa+](https://spyglass.org/alexa-minus/) now. [They can't](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus/) mess-up functionality for millions until it's perfect. And it's [clearly not perfect yet](https://spyglass.org/alexa-plus-ai-amazon/). But Apple seems to be a whole cycle behind Amazon here. Which is why [I've argued](https://spyglass.org/apple-siri-chatgpt-openai-swap/) that they should fully outsource the "world knowledge" layer to ChatGPT (or another partner, but obviously the ChatGPT partnership is already in place) for now [while they rebuild Siri](https://spyglass.org/apple-bad-siri/) (ideally under a new name/brand since this one is more or less ruined) behind the scenes from scratch. Just how long might that take? Well, ideally not as long as Bank of America's analysts think! > The current delays to Siri mean that Apple is essentially three years or more away from delivering “a truly modern AI assistant, long after Google and others have integrated such tech,” Bank of America analysts wrote on Monday. Come on, "three years or more" is 2028 (or later)! If Apple doesn't have an upgraded AI before then, [something really went wrong](https://spyglass.org/apple-ai-nightmare/). I think fall next year (2026) seems like a more reasonable guess for at least the first wave of roll-outs, a la Alexa+. The [fire has clearly been lit](https://spyglass.org/siri-shakeup/) internally, but they're also [playing catch up](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) in perhaps [the fastest-moving field](https://spyglass.org/apple-is-the-navy/) that tech has ever seen. I still wonder if [they don't make an acquisition](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) to speed things up a bit more, but there's no way it takes them three or more years. > When ChatGPT launched in late 2022, “the way companies were doing conversational interaction was changing rapidly, and it was clear Siri was coming up short,” said another former senior Apple employee who worked on the technology ahead of the launch. > > The person added that they were “surprised” to see features announced last year that were ultimately “not going to make it” in time for Apple Intelligence’s initial release. Thank you, unnamed "senior" Apple employee for your hindsight analysis. Was there an internal note sent to the effect of: "NGMI"? [Being Too Early Is Worse Than Being LateAmazon owned the AI assistant space -- until the space changed![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1121.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/photo-1542803399-8499380fd2a1-7)](https://spyglass.org/alexa-ai/) [The GPT-4o AsteroidAlexa and Siri look towards the sky and see their doom…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1122.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-asteroid-scene--1--1.webp)](https://spyglass.org/gpt-4o/) [The AI Will Come Out TomorrowAlexa and Siri struggle to get out the door in the Age of AI…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1123.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-02-16-15.50.37---A-group-of-frustrated-people-yelling-at-an-Amazon-Echo-device-in-a-modern-living-room.-Their-facial-expressions-show-anger-and-confusion--with-one-per-1-4.webp)](https://spyglass.org/the-ai-will-come-out-tomorrow/) [There’s No Free Lunch at AppleThe culture and history have naturally doomed their AI aspirations…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1125.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/mgs22_a_lunch_tray_with_the_apple_logo_--ar_169_--profile_p6b_737fd166-7644-4ab0-acc4-4df1f25014b4_3-4.png)](https://spyglass.org/theres-no-free-lunch-at-apple/) [Five “Game Change” AI Deals for AppleA few ideas for how they might (but likely won’t) change the AI equations, fast…![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/icon/Spyglass-Rings---Multi-1124.png)SpyglassM.G. Siegler![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/thumbnail/DALL-E-2025-03-25-10.01.19---A-cartoon-style-illustration-of-a-person-joyfully-throwing-cash-at-a-large--glowing-Apple-Inc.-logo.-The-person-is-mid-motion-with-arms-extended--and--2-5.webp)](https://spyglass.org/5-ai-deals-for-apple/) ### Atlas Would Have Shrugged at 'Mountainhead' URL: https://spyglass.org/atlas-would-have-shrugged-at-mountainhead/ Last updated: 2025-07-03T16:46:01.000Z ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/af/ca/afcaa655-46e2-45b8-889a-2881de5cce69/content/images/2025/06/ramy-youssef-cory-michael-smith-steve-carell-jason-schwartzman-1.webp) The world got a pleasant surprise [back in January](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-042-tiktok-twitter/#:~:text=The%20creator%20of%20Succession%2C%20Jesse%20Armstrong%2C%20has%20locked%20in%20his%20next%20project%3A%20not%20a%20new%20show%2C%20but%20a%20movie%20for%20HBO%2C%20centered%20on%20%22four%20friends%20who%20meet%20up%20during%20the%20turmoil%20of%20an%20ongoing%20international%20financial%20crisis%22.%20%F0%9F%8E%AC%20%5BDeadline%5D) when it was announced that Jesse Armstrong, the creator of *Succession*, had [locked in](https://deadline.com/2025/01/jesse-armstrong-hbo-film-financial-crisis-succession-creator-1236255439/?ref=spyglass.org) his new project. And it sounded like it would very much be in a similar vein: wealthy people in a time of crisis. Only this time, it would be a *film*. And it was being fast-tracked to debut on [HBO/Max/HBO Max](https://spyglass.org/its-hbo-max-again/). Everyone [was in](https://spyglass.org/dispatch-052-monopoly-pieces/#:~:text=Jesse%20Armstrong%27s%20Mountainhead%20looks%20to%20be%20a%20sort%20of%20%28unsurprisingly%29%20Succession%20meets%20The%20Social%20Network.%20Everyone%20is%20in.%20%5BYouTube%5D). When [the first trailer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxsyXc-LpKk&ab%5Fchannel=Max&ref=spyglass.org) for *Mountainhead* hit in April, not only were there some major *Succession* vibes, but it was clear why it was being so fast-tracked as the focus was on a special breed of billionaire: the tech bro. Double in. Unfortunately, *Mountainhead* is a mess. Having watched it this past weekend, [I'm sad to report](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lqxrwelchk2k?ref=spyglass.org) that nearly none of it works. And the main problem is a sort of obvious one: what Armstrong and team are attempting to lampoon is actually much easier to do than how they attempted to do it. That is to say, the movie would have been a far more scathing critique of tech, and in particular, the titans of tech, if they had just played it almost entirely straight. Instead, they go the opposite direction: way over the top, going beyond simple satire, into the realm of farce. At various points, it almost feels more like a slap-stick comedy or like a [surreal game of *Clue*](https://bsky.app/profile/mgsiegler.com/post/3lqxt5f5wcs2k?ref=spyglass.org).[1](#one) And the end result is a commentary that almost feels lazy – or yes, rushed. It starts out well enough, as the premise is quite good. Four longtime friends getting together at a mountain retreat owned by one of them for a weekend away from it all. Of course, none of them actually intends to be away from anything, as there's simply too much to do when you rule and run the world – perhaps literally, as the plot unwinds. The dynamic between the four is set up well, with one of the friends the clear "loser" of the group because he lacks the 'B' in the 'Billionaire' title that the rest of them have achieved. And even amongst that group, there's some fun jockeying and dynamics about who has the biggest bank account at any given moment. And there's one clear alpha dog in the form of the friend who is the richest person in the world – and clearly related, is the most morally compromised. It's this latter point where you first start to see the cracks in the writing here. And it's related to the timeliness of the story, because "Venis" is clearly meant to be a hybrid of Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg – but mostly Musk. And the producers seemingly could not have asked for better timing with the ongoing fall-out between Musk and the President of the United States. *In the real world*. And this also sort of happens in the story. But the [real world version](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/164712018/a-disillusioned-musk-says-hes-exiting-washington?ref=spyglass.org) is far more [layered](https://spiral.spyglass.org/i/165336673/how-nasa-would-struggle-without-spacex?ref=spyglass.org) and actually, as such, [ridiculous](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/musk-appears-delete-posts-claiming-trump-epstein-files/story?id=122609304&ref=spyglass.org), than the more blunt-force movie version. The same basic problem plagues the other characters as well. But that would all probably be fine – it's a two-hour movie, you only have so much time and you have to do some level of caricature – if they had just again, played it more straight. Confession: I've actually never seen the show *Silicon Valley*. While I know a number of people who helped create it – including, in an indirect way, my wife[2](#two) – it always felt like one of those things that would hit far too close to home. I was *living* that world, why would I want to watch it? For fun? But I also know that it was well done and a large part of that is because of who they had working on it, behind-the-scenes. It's a satire that doesn't play it straight but plays it in a way that sets an appropriate comical tone. Or so I've heard.[3](#three) And I've heard from many of those same people that they feel *Mountainhead* missed this boat. But it's interesting, now that I'm removed from the heart of Silicon Valley and have people I know who actually have nothing to do with that world, they actually seem to have liked the movie quite a bit more than I did. And I think I understand why: if all you read are the headlines about tech, such as the billionaires all [bending the knee](https://spyglass.org/one-million-dollars-to-trump/) to [President Trump](https://spyglass.org/do-you-feel-in-charge/), you probably think they're just sort of comically compromised egomaniacs. And there is [some level](https://spyglass.org/dear-zuck/) of [truth](https://spyglass.org/do-you-even-tech-bro/) to that, of course! But again, it's also [a more nuanced situation](https://spyglass.org/vcs-for-trump/) where [reality](https://spyglass.org/washington-post-missing-spine/) is [actually](https://spyglass.org/paidpals/) far [more damning than](https://spyglass.org/america-has-been-acquired/) what is portrayed and attempted to be conveyed here by three of the friends plotting to murder the third, but [almost in a *Three Stooges*\-like](https://bsky.app/profile/justinbigelow.bsky.social/post/3lqxytpimpk2z?ref=spyglass.org) approach. In a way, it feels like everything *Succession* got right, *Mountainhead* got wrong. And again, I chalk that up to the fact that it was a movie, so it naturally had far less time, literally, for character development, but also because it was clearly rushed. It almost felt as if Armstrong [had been reading](https://spiral.spyglass.org/p/a-spiral-notebook?ref=spyglass.org#:~:text=Jesse%20Armstrong%20did%20not%20intend%20to%20revisit%20the%20world%20of%20the%20wealthy%20so%20soon%20after%20Succession%20ended%2C%20but%20the%20%22tech%20bro%20hierarchy%22%20was%20too%20intruging%20to%20him%20to%20pass%20up%2C%20hence%2C%20Mountainhead%20was%20born%2C%20which%20starts%20streaming%20on%20HBO/Max/HBO%20Max%20this%20weekend.%20%5BTHR%5D) stories with a bunch of the tech bro lingo and [couldn't resist](https://x.com/mgsiegler/status/1931105285801742432?ref=spyglass.org) to center the second and third acts largely around that, escalating it to the point of absurdity [in the hope](https://x.com/RachaelRad/status/1931103906744189384?ref=spyglass.org) of drilling in a commentary about just how ridiculous this all is – I mean, just listen to how they talk! It does end up being absurd, but not in the way that would have driven a point home. Armstrong should have kept the basic premise but dialed everything back about 80% and let the real world absurdity do the rest. --- 1 As is, it almost feels like it would have been better as a play not a movie? 2 The actress who played the Monica Hall character spoke to my wife in preparation for the role. 3 One day I will set aside some time to watch it, especially now that I'm outside the "bubble". _Truncated after 5 MiB. Use `/sitemap.xml` for the complete archive of public content._