10 Big Predictions for 2025

There was a time, many years ago, when I used to do predictions for the upcoming year. Once I even won an award for accuracy!¹ These days, I tend to look down at such things, as most are simply obvious year-end content filler. But here I am, on December 31, as a dad of two young children who is trying to stay up until midnight. And so it's time to fill some content. But really, I realize that most of these are too grandiose and unlikely to happen – most years are relatively boring as it turns out when it comes to what we think will happen (and far more exciting when it comes to things we'd never even think to predict) – but hitting just one would be a win, I think.

So, 10 big things that could happen this year:

1. Apple buys an AI company – As we enter 2025, the consensus view on Apple's initial foray into AI seems to be indifferent at best and underwhelmed at worst. As Siri herself starts to get real upgrades in 2025, that could change a bit. But Apple is running a race quite slowly – too slowly – behind folks who are doing laps much faster. One way to leap ahead would be to buy a player. Apple famously doesn't do a lot of splashy M&A but perhaps an exception could be made for a Mistral or a Perplexity. Who knows if Apple would even be allowed to buy the former given their war with the EU. But the latter could be interesting in particular in light of the impending end of the Google default search deal/payments...
2. Someone buys Warner Bros Discovery – David Zaslav clearly – clearly – wants to do a deal. But the music is slowing down and other players are already finding seats to the point where it's looking more like he won't be able to find a partner to buy as much as he'll be the one selling. Perhaps it's just some assets – CNN and/or HBO? – or maybe it's the whole thing. If the M&A environment truly is about to thaw, Comcast or someone else could make a move. Might Paramount aim to bulk up even more post-Skydance deal? And of course, I'm always trying to come up with ways for Apple to spend money, per above. It does make some sense...
3. Intel gets bailed out – We'll see what ends up happening with the CHIPS Act under the new Trump administration, but regardless, I have a hard time believing they're going to just let Intel wither on the vine. Enabling/bolstering a true American player in chips is a win, no matter the political party. Could a new administration help broker a deal to get, say, Microsoft to support the rejuvenation of Intel? First things, first, Intel needs to put in place a new leadership team. I'll keep my (early) money on Lip-Bu Tan here – if he can overhaul the entire board as well...
4. Elon Musk bails on the White House – I'm a bit torn on which side will sour on the other first here, but I'll go with Elon getting fed up with all the in-fighting – which we're seeing already, of course – and bureaucracy. He'll say the whole thing is fucked and go back to trying to bring about change in his more insurgent manner, by shitposting on Xitter. There are many reasons for him to hang on as long as he can – billions, in fact – but perhaps he'll pre-empt a move by Trump here. There can be only one main character, after all. And he only shares the spotlight for so long...
5. Amazon's Alexa overhaul proves less than "remarkable" – Not exactly shocking given all the reports and the fact that that project has clearly been delayed multiple times already. But I just have this feeling that Amazon is going to have a hell of a time trying to convince the world that a new Alexa is above and beyond the old Alexa – let alone worth paying for. Their previous success with the Echo devices is their undoing here. Might it push them ever closer to Anthropic as a result? The pieces are already in place for that relationship to be the new Microsoft/OpenAI marriage...
6. Microsoft and OpenAI kiss and make up, or break up – It all comes down to the negotiations to turn OpenAI into a for-profit company. Assuming this happens, and Microsoft gets a massive (actual) equity stake as a result, I think that plus the continued floundering of their own consumer AI efforts will lead to a re-kindling of the relationship. Oh yes, and the fact that OpenAI still needs another $20B+ or so to make their AGI dreams come true. SoftBank and the sovereigns can help, but they still need a true American Big Tech™ partner to compete with Google and DeepMind here. If/when the for-profit status comes into effect and the relationship is rekindled, OpenAI should shoot past a $200B valuation in new tender offers. If the rift instead deepens and Microsoft and OpenAI break up in the name of independence, look for the former to be involved in a deal to buy TikTok...
7. NVIDIA comes back to Earth, a bit – Overall, there's almost no way that Blackwell isn't a massive hit for the company. To say there's pent-up demand undersells it, and these will certainly not be undersold! But I also wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA's overall numbers are more muted in 2025 than people may think due to supply and complexity issues. But more so I'd chalk this prediction up to the law of large numbers simply catching up with NVIDIA. They can't keep growing as they have, so simply awesome growth will have to do instead of bonkers growth. Also, what if they're not as dominant in AI inference as they have been in pre-training? And, of course, everyone – including all of their major partners – are now sprinting full speed to try to diversify away from the reliance. Still, that's probably much further off than 2025. Again, this year already seems pretty signed and sealed...
8. Threads passes Xitter in active users – This seems to be more a matter of "when" not "if" at this point. But while early models suggested it may take a few years, Meta is seemingly getting more aggressive when it comes to growth. A few more turns of their dials and I bet they pass Xitter this year. Bluesky will continue growing too, but I don't think they will be able to compete with the growth engines and talents (and cloning capabilities) that Meta possesses – even if they're making more of the right moves in the space...
9. Google starts to feel real pressure on search – This is a tricky prediction to make because everyone makes it every year – and has for years. And yet it's never true. But I do think that the various AI players may finally start to make some inroads here in 2025. And that could also be related to the end of the default search contracts – that will undoubtedly be tied up in courts for years, but just the threat of it may open some players – like Apple – to start to look at other options here. Perhaps this is just anecdotal, but I'm using ChatGPT for a lot more queries these days... Of course, Google could combat this with a bold placement for Gemini...
10. Mark Zuckerberg unchained – While it all felt a bit too calculated for my taste, the "Zuckaissance" of 2024 was nevertheless impressive. But come on, this is PR 101. The media builds someone up to then knock them down. Zuck has lived this cycle a few times now and he's due to be knocked down again after a year of the press eating up the gold chains and wakeboarding. Not even sucking up to the incoming president can stop this inevitability. It's just a question of what causes the backlash. Something with Llama? Instagram? WhatsApp? Good old Facebook? Something political? Maybe flooding all our feeds with AI bot nonsense? Anyway, this knock down needs to happen in 2025 to get ahead of the next Zuck build up as the "Orion" AR glasses get closer to launch...

One more thing: My bet would be that after some strong initial buzz amongst the Apple diehards – including myself – Apple's new 'FacePod' home hub thing fails to catch on in a major way as well. Beyond people who buy everything Apple – again, that's me – it's not clear what it will be used for. Though I'm not sure how much it will matter as it's just an initial attempt to enter the home in a major way (well, beyond HomePod, I guess), but still, if it's not a hit out of the gate, there will be pressure on Apple following the fizzle of the first Vision Pro as well...

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¹ It's true, I still have the trophy in my office to prove it.