Apple's Shifting Vision Pro Strategy
Michael Burkhardt
It sort of feels like we're watching Apple shift the Vision Pro strategy in real time:
According to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple has delayed its plans to release a more affordable Apple Vision headset in 2025. It’ll take a couple extra years now.
Previous rumors indicated that Apple intended to ship a cheaper Apple Vision headset next year, with cheaper materials, lower resolution displays, and no support for EyeSight. That way, spatial computing could be accessible to more users. However, according to Kuo, that’ll no longer be the case.
The problem with the above "cheaper" version is that it undoubtedly wouldn't be that much cheaper. While a $1,999 'Vision' is significantly less expensive percentage-wise than the $3,499 Vision Pro, it wouldn't open up a whole new market opportunity for Apple. They'd sell more units, sure, but it would still largely be the "$2,000 VR headset" versus Meta's "$300 VR headset". Apple would never frame it this way, of course – it's "Spatial Computing" remember? – but the market would. Apple can get away with selling a product 2x more expensive than the market leader – probably even at $999, if it's that much better – but not a still nearly order of magnitude price difference.
So yes, I think it would be a mistake to release a $2,000 'Vision' into the market, just as I thought it was a mistake to release a $3,500 Vision Pro into the market. Again, Apple says everything is going as expected, but it's bullshit to suggest they didn't wish the device was selling better. They took a swing, but it was with the wrong bat in the wrong game. They should have taken some practice swings in the cages – with a dev kit or two. Changing the bat to a lighter one but still against the same pitcher in the same game throwing 100mph heat isn't going to help much.
Kuo still says that Apple will ship a new version of Apple Vision Pro next year, with the M5 chip and support for Apple Intelligence. It’s unclear if there’ll be any additional hardware upgrades.
Probably also a mistake in a vacuum, but we left the vacuum and this is sort of one they may have to suck it up and do at this point. If we're really not going to see the 'Vision' until 2027, an M5 Vision Pro would probably be necessary to still sell any units, lest it be 2026 and you're buying an M2 chip-powered device. And they can use it as a dev kit or sorts for new spatial Apple Intelligence features, one imagines. But those features won't run on the current model so... yeah, it feels like a real-time strategy shift as they read the market and the room on Vision Pro.
One more thing: in the Q&A section of his newsletter this week, Mark Gurman seemingly backs up the notion that a "chip upgrade" Vision Pro is in the works alongside the cheaper device (without giving timetables), but more intriguingly:
But I also continue to hear that Apple is seriously considering a device that offloads the computing components to an iPhone and serves as an accessory for watching movies. That’s something that would be roughly akin to the glasses offered by companies like Xreal. The benefit for Apple is that it would reinforce the iPhone as the center of its product ecosystem and offer something that could be a much more popular option than the $3,500 Vision Pro.
Back in September, right after Meta showed off their "Orion" AR glasses, complete with a computing puck, I made the argument that this is what Apple should have done with their XR line. Not an entirely new idea – one that myself and others also made earlier in the year – but one driven home by Meta's maneuver. As I concluded that piece:
Maybe this makes sense to do in a 'Vision' device, versus a 'Vision Pro'. The naming would work too. It would make the device almost like the ‘Apple Visor’.
Apple absolutely should make this move, especially as the compelling content starts to come in for the platform.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler