Apple's First-Look Fall & Secondary Spring
Mark Gurman
For the past several months, there's been a steady drumbeat of Apple not just shifting to a more fluid "year round" iPhone launch strategy, but word that it would start in 2026. There's enough reporting on the matter from various sources now that it seems to be happening:
In recent years, including 2025, Apple has released four main iPhones — two Pro models and two mid-tier versions — in the fall. And it occasionally debuted a lower-cost SE or “e” model in the early part of the year. But in 2026 and beyond, the company’s smartphone release schedule will look markedly different.
Apple plans to unveil three high-end models — the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and a new foldable — in fall 2026. Then, roughly six months later, it will roll out the iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and potentially a refreshed iPhone Air. I expect this pattern to continue for years to come, with Apple launching between five and six new models annually.
The shift to "Premium" models in the Fall, followed by "Regular" models in the Spring is in line with the earlier Wayne Ma report for The Information. As I wrote at the time in May, this is both a massive change, but also seemingly makes some sense:
This would be a massive shift in strategy. Releasing the more premium models of the iPhone before the "regular" models would clearly shift the lineup more towards the former in terms of sales. But it would probably also help the lineup overall in allowing Apple to be constantly shipping new devices at different price points. And it would shift the hardware back to a state more in-step with software, as iOS is increasingly now released year-round, versus all-at-once in the fall.
This is the old tried and true "if you really care about the latest and greatest, pay up" model. But it also has the side benefit of perhaps allowing Apple to stagger production a bit more, which in turn could help diversify production a bit more – as in, to other countries outside of China for the latest models.
But with the more recent news that the iPhone Air may be "delayed" to be on the Spring schedule next year as well (more on this in a minute), I'm now wondering if this won't be too large of a change for Apple when it comes to consumer expectations. That is, every year, for nearly two decades now, everyone is well aware that new iPhones are launched in the Fall. And while many such people who buy in the Fall buy the Pro models, many others do not, opting for the more affordable "regular" variety. In fact, it hardly seems a stretch to think that those less in the know about Apple rumors and shipping schedules are more likely to go with those "regular" models. And so next year, that customer may head to the Apple Store thinking they're going to get a new iPhone 18, only to find that, sorry, only the iPhone 18 Pro and Fold models are available. And those are far more expensive than what they're used to buying.
To be fair, that same customer may be okay going with last year's iPhone 17 model, but it won't be a new iPhone model. And that also raises the question if Apple still plans to drop the price of last year's models by $100 with the Fall releases or if they'll do that now as well in the Spring alongside the new "regular" models? That would be a pretty raw deal for my hypothetical customer.
With all that in mind, I've been wondering why Apple doesn't do a more balanced option along the lines of:
Fall 2026:
- iPhone 18 ("regular" – affordable)
- iPhone 18 Pro ("pro" – best)
Spring 2027:
- iPhone 18e ("regular" – cheapest)
- iPhone Air 2 ("pro" – thinnest)
But again, all of this reporting suggests Apple is already locked in with the "Premium" Fall and "Regular" Spring cadence, at least for the coming year. Maybe they could do the above in '27/'28, or maybe my worries above won't matter. It's just such a big change to the way Apple has sold (and marketed) the iPhone to date that there's obviously real risk with such a change. Of course, Apple has a lot of such changes coming to the lineup.
Regarding the iPhone Air in particular, back to Gurman:
The Information reported that a second-generation iPhone Air had been postponed from next fall into 2027 in order to add a second rear camera (and that a vapor chamber and beefier battery are in the cards). The news outlet also cited poor sales as a cause for the schedule change.
But from what I’ve heard, the second-generation iPhone Air hadn’t actually been earmarked for next year — at least not in recent months. So this wasn’t a delay due to the phone’s sales performance. The fact that Apple named the device the iPhone Air (rather than the iPhone 17 Air) signaled that it didn’t want to tie the product to an annual release schedule.
Here's where I'll point out something sort of humorous, as I wrote about that same Information report last week:
It will be interesting if Apple attempts to push back on this report at all – perhaps on background to other publications? Maybe there will be some casual comment that the device was never meant to be on a yearly cadence? They could even point to the fact that it was called the 'iPhone Air' and not the 'iPhone 17 Air' – which led to immediate speculation that it wouldn't be on a yearly release cycle.
Now I'm not saying that Apple officially fed this to Gurman – if anything, he's constantly on their shit list for breaking so many stories about the company – but I am saying that someone at Apple (his source) likely did with regard to that narrative which I correctly guessed. And that doesn't mean it's misdirection, of course. In fact, it's exactly in line with what I speculated when the 'iPhone Air' name was officially unveiled:
The worst kept secret in Cupertino (this year) is here: iPhone Air. Notably, it's not 'iPhone 17 Air', just 'iPhone Air' which stands out in the line up with iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. And it leads to the obvious question if Apple views this as a one-off design, perhaps if it doesn't sell well? That seems unlikely, so perhaps they'd just do an 'iPhone Air 2' next year? But that would be a bit awkward and confusing if they stick with the standard naming schemes for the other iPhones – i.e. do I buy an iPhone 18, an iPhone 18 Pro, or an iPhone Air 2 next year? Then again, next year should also see the 'iPhone Fold' introduced, so perhaps we're slowly moving away from the bigger numbers, which were always untenable at some point. Were we really going to get an 'iPhone 37' in 2045?
I certainly think it's fair and interesting to wonder if Apple did choose that name to give them such optionality here. Perhaps they never intended to release an Air every year, but maybe they would have, had it been a huge hit. Which it's clearly not out of the gate.
Anyway, Gurman's sources suggest the big change with the 'iPhone Air 2' may be less about another camera lens and more about a move to the 2nm process for the chip, which Apple is expected to shift to next year and yes, should help with battery life – something, of course, where the iPhone Air has a more acute need.
He also suggests that the real driver behind doing the Air was building up some expertise and production capabilities ahead of the 'iPhone Fold' – a notion I've written about before as well. Still, it's almost impossible to imagine Apple would release a product they thought would be a dud just to gear up for another product (one which, I may add, also may have sales challenges based on the likely price points).
Then again, they did release the Vision Pro...
One more thing: the most interesting element of Gurman's latest newsletter may not be any of the above (which again, was already largely known/reported), but instead that Apple may be killing off the Mac Pro. For whatever reason, Apple has had some real commitment issues when it comes to that device in the past many years. But they keep coming back to it, promising this time will be different. Before they go back to neglecting it. Now the success of the Mac Studio may have been the final death blow... Many professionals – true professionals who needed the tower and all its extensibility (or as much as Apple would allow anyway) – will not be happy.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler