Dispatch 023
Trying to think backwards to how Pat Gelsinger could have succeeded in running Intel given the timing and circumstances, I think the only logical conclusion is that it was impossible in the timeframe he was given.
He may have made some wrong calls, but they were probably the only ones he could have made given the mandate from the board. The real way to save Intel will be to make a big bet on what's next, just as Jensen Huang did all those years ago. But it nearly killed NVIDIA multiple times, you still have to get lucky, and Intel is currently not set up to take such risks right now, clearly.
M.G. Siegler
I Think...
🕺 Meta's Mark Zuckerberg Seeks ‘Active Role’ in Donald Trump’s Tech Policies – Ah yes, the old "Potomac Two-Step"... I'm old enough to remember when Zuckerberg said he was going to be "neutral" in politics – meaning, I'm more than three months old. Just a month later, he was done with politics. Look, I've already said that I actually think it's fine/warranted for Zuckerberg to meet with Donald Trump – obviously, he's the incoming President under which he'll have to operate – but the communication strategy here is just a total mess. If trust was an issue with Zuckerberg before in public opinion, this double-speak isn't going to help – no matter how many chains he puts on. Of course, all of this – including Nick Clegg's rather bizarre press conference – will help with trust, if you want to call it that, with the new Trump administration, I guess. It's all just about two times too kiss the ring for my own taste. But I also don't run a $1T public company. Which is to say, I don't have to dance. [FT 🔒]
🍪 The Furious Contest to Unseat Nvidia as King of A.I. Chips – The race for AI Independence (at least from NVIDIA) is well underway. Amazon and AMD's latest offerings may offer credible alternatives for certain AI workloads and the fact that Apple is using Amazon's 'Trainium 2' chips for some work and Meta is using AMD's MI300s for other work, seems to speak well (or was it really just some back-scratching PR?). But the real test may be what Anthropic does with the 'Trainium' "supercomputer" ('Project Rainer') that Amazon is building for them. Can their models keep pace with OpenAI's NVIDIA cluster usage? Can someone aside from NVIDIA become the de-facto leading chipmaker for inference? [NYT]
🧑🔬 Amazon Announces Supercomputer, New Server Powered by Homegrown AI Chips – A bit more on Amazon's efforts with their 'Trainium' chips, which are the work of Annapurna Labs, an Israeli startup Amazon actually acquired nearly a decade ago and works out of Austin, Texas. Per the profile, the company still seems to run like a startup, versus some small part of big Amazon (a strategy Amazon has often used to good effect). Interestingly, Annapurna's first chips were built for inference and actually only started to focus on training AI models with 'Trainium' a few years ago. Might we see a shift back to 'Inferentia' chips as the current AI slowdown gives a bit of time to breathe? Also interesting to think about Amazon's Annapurna purchase in parallel with Apple's purchase of P.A. Semi back in the day. Even the price was similar... [WSJ 🔒]
📺 Walmart Closes $2.3B Vizio Deal, Buying In to Cutthroat Streaming Game – While Apple may not want to get into the low-margin television set game, Walmart is happy to – but not because of the hardware, because of the software. Yes, it's a services and streaming play for them – a way to combat what Amazon is doing not just with Fire TVs but also with Prime Video. The latter is quickly becoming a major player in advertising and Walmart also clearly wants in. Vizio is about to be everywhere, and that is seemingly not great news for Roku, which has partnered with the retailer in the past on their boxes... Also, hey a big(ish) deal made it through regulatory approval! [THR]
🗻 Paramount’s Trio of CEOs to Be Trimmed After Ellison Merger – Following up on yesterday's blurb about Showtime's streaming spend, it sounds like the merger with Skydance may actually happen faster than anticipated thanks to the new administration. As such, the wheels of change are in motion with at least one of the current three co-CEOs of Paramount, Brian Robbins – shout out to Head of the Class – likely to leave. Per yesterday's link, while Chris McCarthy is clearly doing all he can to prove his worth, it sounds like his role, if any, will ultimately be up to the also incoming Jeff Shell (who used to work with the other co-CEO, George Cheeks). It sounds like the NFL is pretty secure (they could have opted out of their deal with CBS with the change of control) with a few sweeteners likely. And so then it all becomes about how Paramount partners (or buys) to better compete in streaming. I still like my plan to bulk up rather than spin out if you have all the money in the world at your back... Also, CBS itself isn't going anywhere, sorry David Zaslav. [Bloomberg 🔒]
🍺 ‘Everybody Is Drinking Guinness.’ We Know Why. – Anecdotally, I believe it to be true that more people are ordering Guinness at pubs these days. As it turns out, there are reasons for that. Part of it is the "Splitting the G" viral meme drinking game (one that's not particular crazy, relatively speaking – which also has its own app). But I also like the notion that Guinness, can-and-widget innovation aside, is a drink you can only really get in a bar. This hurt it during the pandemic, but that also may have led to a boomerang back now that bars are back in full swing again. There's also, of course, the "healthy" thing – which is to say that Guinness, despite being perceived as heavy, actually has fewer calories (and alcohol content) than many beers – though, please recall that a real Guinness pour is 20 ounces, which sort of negates that caloric advantage. Also, yes, the Irish are having a moment. We need that harp emoji, pronto. [NYT]
I Note...
- As I guessed might be the case yesterday, it sounds like Lip-Bu Tan, the former Intel board member who left after reported disagreements in direction a few months ago, is a candidate being considered to replace Pat Gelsinger as CEO. But it's very early in the process – Gelsinger just "retired" a few days ago. [Reuters]
- SpaceX may do a tender offer at $350B, up from $210B earlier this year. And a lot has happened since then... As noted a few weeks back, the then-rumored $250B price seemed like a "steal", and it was. [Bloomberg 🔒]
- Also continuing to move up in price (also as predicted): the amount Apple is likely to pay Indonesia to get the iPhone back in the market there. [Reuters]
- While Amazon's new 'Trainium 2' chips (per above) sound impressive, performance is still likely to be blown away by NVIDIA's forthcoming 'Blackwell' chips. As such, Amazon is already previewing their 'Trainium 3' chips, coming late next year, as well. [TechCrunch]
- Amazon also announced new 'Nova' generative AI models, available in four flavors for use in AWS. [TechCrunch]
- I can't be the only one getting a bit confused by all the different AI offerings Amazon now has. Don't forget about Q, also updated for use on AWS yesterday! Will any of these power Rufus, let alone Alexa? [TechCrunch]
- Like OpenAI before them, Amazon is looking to partner directly with publishers to access real-time news for the new version of Alexa – whenever she decides to show up. [Axios]
- Sounds like Samsung's Smart Glasses – think: a Ray-Ban Meta competitor – may be ready for their first tease. And that may come via some sort of XR software unveil with Google this month. And then the glasses would be further shown next month during their Galaxy event, before going on sale in Q3 2025. I like the Gemini angle here, but how will these things look? [9to5Google]
- Microsoft has an interesting strategy in combating antitrust scrutiny: go after the enforcers by accusing them of intentionally leaking information about their cases. At first I didn't get this strategy, then I was watching some sports and it hit me: this is complaining about the refs! Why do teams do that? To try to get better calls, of course. But sometimes it backfires! [Verge]
- Sadly for Microsoft, antitrust in the UK has different refs, so their complaints don't help with the $1B+ lawsuit here. [WSJ 🔒]
- Speaking of Nick Clegg's weird press conference mentioned up top, the real point, ostensibly, was to talk about how Meta is easing up on some moderation policies after years of doing it wrong – I'll say, quite literally. But again, it just all feels very political. No surprise, I guess. [Verge]
- What's going on with BuzzFeed's debt, Peter Kafka wonders. It's a good, if perpetual, question. Might Hot Ones be the key to their latest reprieve? [BI 🔒]
- Getting ahead of the impending trade war with China, O.H.I.O. Fund set up Eagle Electronics to more or less "onshore" key Chinese electronic components to be made in Ohio. This is smart, but I'm also mentioning as it's based in Solon, Ohio, which is right next door to where I grew up. [Axios]
- Google's generative video AI product Veo has beaten OpenAI's Sora to market – well, at least in "private preview". [Verge]
- Bluesky is still aiming to get their first subscription features (and thus, first monetization efforts) out before the end of the year – perhaps higher quality video uploads and profile customization to start. [Bloomberg 🔒]
- Ming-Chi Kuo believes Apple's Smart Screen Home Thing has been delayed until the second half of 2025, with a potential unveil at WWDC next year. The reason? Software, it seems – which is not his area of expertise, so take it with some salt. I'm sure Mark Gurman will weigh in soon enough... [Medium]
- The live-action Snow White sure looks like it should be another massive hit for Disney next spring. [THR]
- Did you know Stephen King has owned three radio stations in Maine since the early 1980s? Sadly, they're now shutting down after years of losing money as the author gets up there in age... [Billboard]
I Quote...
“And then the other thing was, I remember reading online someone saying, ‘Lin doesn’t write villain songs.’ Like Michael Jordan, I took that personally. I wrote a villain song, and Mads Mikkelson sings it because he’s the big villain in the movie, and he’s terrifying.”
-- Lin-Manuel Miranda, discussing the music he wrote for Mufasa: The Lion King, the upcoming Disney prequel.
I mention this because it's a good quote but also because after my post about Moana 2, a surprising number of people pinged with the same general point: Moana 2 was worse than the first movie because the music was worse – where the hell was Lin-Manuel Miranda?!
I noted how bizarre this absence was in a footnote as well. And the above may hold at least part of the answer: he didn't work on Moana 2 because he was already working on Mufasa for Disney. Also, because Moana 2 started as a Disney+ series, he may have been less inclined to take on the song-writing duties – another big miss on Disney's part, clearly.
All is not lost though, it sounds like he will be back for the live-action version of Moana in the works – something The Rock has confirmed.
I Spy...
OMG, the Touch Bar lives! Well, assuming the 'Flexbar' Kickstarter leads to a successful product build and launch. It would be around $180 at launch. While I was not a fan of the Touch Bar from day one, and as such, wasn't sad to see it go, a stand-alone version could be compelling if customizable enough. Even better if it had Touch ID baked in, but I doubt Apple will allow that...
