Apple's Next Question: Hold 'Em or Fold 'Em?
For years now, I've been making the same Kenny Rogers joke about Apple's would-be foray into foldable devices. I'm a dad, it's allowed. But the latest reports on the space, published undoubtedly not coincidentally on the same day, do raise some actual questions. First and foremost: does Apple care more about you being able to hold their foldable devices, or just fold them?1
First, early yesterday morning, Aaron Tilley and Yang Jie reported the following for The Wall Street Journal:
The company is also planning two foldable devices, the people said. A larger device, intended to serve as a laptop, would have a screen that unfolds to be nearly as large as some desktop monitors, at about 19 inches. A smaller model would unfold to a display size that would be larger than an iPhone 16 Pro Max, intended to serve as a foldable iPhone, the people said.
A few hours later, Mark Gurman seemingly corroborated the notion of a large-screen foldable, though he frames it more as a giant iPad for Bloomberg:
Apple designers are developing something akin to a giant iPad that unfolds into the size of two iPad Pros side-by-side. The Cupertino, California-based company has been honing the product for a couple of years now and is aiming to bring something to market around 2028, I’m told.
I've long thought an Apple foldable would be more of an iPhone/iPad hybrid. Something the size of a 'Max' iPhone that unfolds into something the size of an iPad mini. Both of the descriptions above obviously sound much larger than that. I'm honestly not sure how I feel about such a size. My initial reaction is that it seems like it would be too large for most usage, but then again, I've always favored the smaller iPad Pro versus the larger one, so perhaps those that go big, wish to go even bigger, just as was the case with the iPhone.
Regardless, the bigger issue has clearly been the hinge and crease. Here's Gurman:
Apple’s goal for a foldable device is to avoid the crease that current products have when they’re in the open position. And the company has made progress on this front: Prototypes of this new product within Apple’s industrial design group have a nearly invisible crease. But it’s too early to tell if Apple will can get rid of it altogether. Samsung Electronics Co., which launched its first foldable phone five years ago, has tried unsuccessfully to remove the crease.
Without question, the crease on current foldables is getting better from generation to generation. Some will recall the disaster that was the first Galaxy Fold in no small part due to that crease, but even the move from the first Pixel Fold to the second generation is night-and-day better. But still undoubtedly not good enough for Apple. It's obviously a tough problem to solve because well, you have to fold the device. And clearly, Apple doesn't want to take the approach that Microsoft and others have tried in the past with two separate screens that fold together – though that hinge did get a lot of love at the time...
Perhaps time solves this issue as 2028 is still quite a ways off. In the meantime, might we get a smaller, foldable iPhone?
It is my impression that much of Apple’s current work on foldable screen technology is focused on this higher-end device, but it’s also been exploring the idea of a foldable iPhone. In that area, Apple is the only major smartphone provider without a foldable option: Samsung, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Chinese brands like Huawei Technologies Co. all have their own versions. But I wouldn’t anticipate a foldable iPhone before 2026 at the earliest.
Many reports, including the WSJ one yesterday, have confirmed that a thinner iPhone – 'iPhone Air', if you will – is the big 2025 change for the lineup. And while there was some early speculation that it might be one in the same as an 'iPhone Ultra', an even higher-end model, it now seems clear that it will instead sit between the iPhone and iPhone Pro lineups in terms of specs (and perhaps price). That leaves yes, 2026 as the earlier a foldable iPhone would make sense.
Back to the WSJ:
Although Apple initially aimed to introduce the larger device first to gauge market response, it now appears that the foldable iPhone will likely be ready ahead of it. Apple executives are pushing for a 2026 release, but the company may need another year to address technical challenges, the people said. As for the ultrathin phone, it would offer an alternative to consumers who like a sleek-looking device and don’t mind giving up some features available in Pro models.
It does feel like the move to get the iPhone out the door as their first foldable may be driven at least somewhat by the market. While none of the foldables have yet taken off, they are getting pretty compelling. And we all know Apple's M.O. by now: take a market that's sort of there, sort of dwindling, and make the killer product. A foldable iPhone would fit that bill well...
The question is really if 2026 is feasible given that we're just a couple weeks away from 2025 and well, the crease issue would only have about a year to be ironed out, quite literally, by then. Also, there's a long history in this particular space with Apple of underestimating time to market. So perhaps 2027 is more likely. Then again, other rumors have said that a foldable iPhone my instead be a "flipable" iPhone, as it were. That means there could be more tolerance for a crease and/or better capabilities to remove it, as it would be a smaller surface that actually folds.
Either way, such a foldable could end up being that 'iPhone Ultra' model as it would undoubtedly sell for upwards of $2,000 – if not well past that price point. The massive iPad foldable? That's scary to think about. $3,000? $4,000? $5,000?
Again, Apple's question is really if they want to focus on 'holdable' ('iPhone Fold') or 'foldable' ('iPad Fold')? Ultimately, it will probably be 'why not both?' and then we can move onto the age-old debate about which OS they should run.2
One more thing: buried all the way at the bottom of the WSJ piece:
Apple is plotting a follow up to the Vision Pro but is undecided on the exact path forward. One plan involves using the iPhone to power the headset, potentially lowering the cost of the device and reducing its relatively heavy weight, people familiar with the product said. But early tests show that the iPhone chip alone might lack the processing power necessary to power some applications, the people said.
Something, something, skating to where the puck is going...