Google Slams on the AI Gas
Google is not fucking around. That's my main takeaway coming out of the Google I/O keynote yesterday. It's honestly impressive. Google went from being the bear with big claws and not knowing what to do with them – well, to be fair, it was less about not knowing what to do with them and more a timidity around using them. That era now seems to be in the rear-view. The stakes are just too high with regard to AI. Google looks in that rear-view mirror and sees disruption coming upon them quick. Like that T-Rex in Jurassic Park, to mix all the metaphors (and movies).
They just slammed on the gas.
My only complaint about the two-hour long keynote was that it was a bit redundant at points. I think they easily could have shaved it down to a svelte 90 minutes. And it would have been a taut packaging of the future. I mean, this presentation was so chock-full of AI that they didn't even have time for Android.1 Just think about that for a minute. The product which has been the key focal point of the event since its inception in 2008 was barely even mentioned this year. Imagine a WWDC without a mention of iOS. It's sort of bonkers. These are operating systems used by billions of people. Sorry, no time for that.
And it's exactly the right mentality to have. Android remains important, of course, but going forward, mainly insofar as that it's a base layer for Google's work in AI. Same with Chrome. Same with... my god, Search.2
Some will say that Google is either overreacting/overcorrecting here or touting things that will be of little use and thus, value. The latter could certainly end up being true. Google has a long and illustrious history when it comes to such product decisions. They just love to do demos of things that are technically impressive but of questionable actual value. Yesterday was no different, I suspect. But it was different because those demos actually didn't matter. What mattered was the mentality shift. Again, the slamming on the gas to go for it. Leveraging their technical advantage.
That's why I in no way think this was Google overreacting/overcorrecting. Don't be fooled by the demos. Those are a moment in time. Take a step back and look at the bigger picture here. AI is transforming everything. It's happening right now. It's not just nerds, it's everywhere. And it will only continue to ramp. Google just showed us that they're up to the challenge and are here to meet the moment. To the point where, in my mind right now, it's a two-horse race for the future of AI.
That's subject to change of course – and certainly in a field as dynamic and fast-moving as AI – but it's starting to feel like Google and OpenAI are breaking away from the pack.
OpenAI has all the consumer momentum at the moment thanks to ChatGPT. And Google just, well, fully shoved Gemini into Search. And Chrome. And Android. And every other surface they control. They have a sheer numbers advantage (both in terms of user base and employee base) as well as a monetary one. But OpenAI – still a startup, albeit one valued at $300B – can operate more nimbly and without the burdensome baggage of legacy.
OpenAI's single biggest advantage right now may be that they're not a public company with one of the greatest business models, Search Advertising, that mankind has ever known. Because while Google's profits will continue to roll in regardless of disruption, if they even just start to slow, Wall Street is not going to be happy. The second-order effects of this will be brutal. That's why it's key that Sergey Brin is back involved. It's not just that he's a co-founder, it's that he has, alongside Larry Page, founder control. Sundar Pichai, as prescient as he's been with regard to AI, needs that clout – and the literal voting shares – to make this all work as a public company going forward.
Yes, yes, there are other interesting players in AI. Lots of them! Big and small. But my current read on the situation is that if the race is towards either consumers and/or "AGI",3 it's between OpenAI and Google right now. Microsoft will undoubtedly control some level of the enterprise in the way that Microsoft always does through bundling. Amazon too will have some portion of the market thanks to AWS and perhaps commerce. Meta will keep shoving their AI in the faces of their consumers, but to what end? Maybe if they can win the race to true AR Glasses – maybe.4 If not, their end game here may just end up being better advertising and trying to control whatever anyone ends up doing with Llama. Anthropic may be able to maintain some sort of toehold in coding capabilities. Perplexity perhaps in newfangled Search. xAI in... who knows, maybe as a part of the inevitable Tesla/SpaceX/Xitter/etc super company.
The one company I haven't mentioned here is hardly surprising. The silence is deafening after yesterday. Apple.
In many ways, the I/O keynote felt like a Bizarro WWDC. Apple's event, which is being held in a couple weeks, will almost certainly be the opposite of Google's. iOS, and Apple's other operating systems, will remain the focal point. The big upgrade this year? A new coat of paint. Undoubtedly, there will be some welcomed changes, but they'll probably look like cute kids toys relative to Google's AI onslaught.
Some won't be able to see it – Apple diehards in particular, many of which, unfortunately, are also running the company. But my bet would be that in ten years, we look back at the dichotomy of these two events as a sort of sea change moment.
That's obviously risky to say ahead of WWDC actually happening! But it's also not that risky as that agenda is clearly already locked in place. The question really is if Apple shifts some stances last-minute to try to answer Google – but really, the entire rest of the industry – in some way.5 The opening up of their on-device AI models may be a sign of this. And it's both a welcome and smart one. But it won't be enough. The whole I'm-gonna-switch-from-iPhone-to-Android this year based off of what was announced at these developer conferences is always overblown. But it does feel like the two platforms are diverging more than they ever have before, all because of AI. Again, that may not be an issue for Apple in the immediate term, but it may be a massive one in the longer term.
Apple needs to get their shit together. If one of their highlights coming out of WWDC is a couple new scenes and themes for Image Playground, I'm going to lose it. Because Apple clearly will have lost it. The plot.
Again, I know that I'm going to hear in response to this that I need to calm down, that it's early, that Apple's slow-and-steady approach always wins in the end. And what I'm saying is that this is not going to work this time with AI. While it is, in fact, still early, it's moving so fast that if they don't start executing on it right now, they're going to get lapped. I mean, they already have been, they just don't see it yet. But I suspect we're all going to start to see it in the coming years...
If the best time to start taking AI seriously was 10 years ago, and the second best time was 9 years ago, and the third best time was 8 years ago... the eleventh best time is right now. Cut deals with all the various AI players, leveraging the install base of the iPhone. Including, yes, Google. Buy up all the AI tech and talent you can, no matter the cost. Stop dicking around with nickel and diming developers in the App Store. Focus on what fucking matters. The future. Not the past.
You know, like Google.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
1 Which got its own, pre-recorded show a week prior. Well, aside from the AndroidXR stuff, which was teased at the end of that show and showcased at the end of this one. But it was less about the Android part of that equation and more about the XR (and yes, AI) part.
2 Related to this, it's especially impressive -- well, that's not the right word... ballsy? -- that Google is doing this while in the midst of multiple antitrust investigations! One of which is about Search itself! Which is turning into a debate about the future of AI! Google is clearly not going to just sit back quietly and wait for it to pass like Microsoft perhaps did back in the day...
3 Ah yes, the always-loaded "AGI" term. Perhaps here let's just think about it as the point where AI hits a breakaway moment when it starts improving itself...
4 Google obviously rode out to try to meet this moment too with AndroidXR. In particular, they're seemingly partnering with Samsung and others to go after Meta's early lead here with Ray-Ban (and their forthcoming more AR-y version). But really, they're clearly going after the same "true" AR wearable market as Meta -- and Apple, eventually.
5 I think it's more likely that Apple shifts some of their stances and positioning around the App Store in light of the recent happenings with Epic and the courts...