The US Government Inside Intel
Ryan Gould
Prediction #3 for 2025, made on December 31, 2024 was as follows:
Intel gets bailed out – We'll see what ends up happening with the CHIPS Act under the new Trump administration, but regardless, I have a hard time believing they're going to just let Intel wither on the vine. Enabling/bolstering a true American player in chips is a win, no matter the political party. Could a new administration help broker a deal to get, say, Microsoft to support the rejuvenation of Intel? First things, first, Intel needs to put in place a new leadership team. I'll keep my (early) money on Lip-Bu Tan here – if he can overhaul the entire board as well...
Well, the path was perhaps a bit different than I imagined. While I nailed the Lip-Bu Tan element, I don't think I possibly could have foreseen President Trump then calling for the ouster of Tan – before meeting with him and seeing there was clearly a deal to be done.
As Ryan Gould, Josh Wingrove, and Liana Baker report after that meeting:
The Trump administration is in talks with Intel Corp. to have the US government potentially take a stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, helping support the company’s effort to expand domestic manufacturing, according to people familiar with the plan.
The deal would help shore up Intel’s planned factory hub in Ohio, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The company had once promised to turn that site into the world’s largest chipmaking facility, though it’s been repeatedly delayed. The size of the potential stake isn’t clear.
This follows, of course, the "unprecedented" deal for the US government to get a cut of NVIDIA and AMD chip sales to China. And that itself follows Tim Cook literally presenting a gold bar to the President at the White House to ensure the erratic tariff threats miss Apple's core business – again. We live in interesting times. Interesting, stupid, and dangerous times.
Still, I'm not sure the government shouldn't be helping Intel here. I mean, they already were with the CHIPS Act. But Trump hates the CHIPS Act simply because it's associated with Joe Biden, so... he clearly has been seeking a better way to get involved. And taking a stake in Intel, rather than just granting them money, is certainly a Trumpian way of getting involved!
I still think Intel would be better suited to have a strong and aligned fiscal private partner here in the vein of Microsoft or Amazon or Apple or even NVIDIA. But the Trump administration seemingly tried that approach with TSMC and it didn't seem to go very far. So... I hope Intel is ready to make some gold-plated chips!
One more thing: a lot of those other predictions are looking pretty good at this point, if I do say so myself...
Collect them all...