Intel Inside, In a Way
Where there's a will, there's a way. Here's Ming-Chi Kuo:
Intel expected to begin shipping Apple’s lowest-end M processor as early as 2027
There have long been market rumors that Intel could become an advanced-node foundry supplier to Apple, but visibility around this had remained low. My latest industry surveys, however, indicate that visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved significantly.
Apple previously signed an NDA with Intel and obtained the advanced-node 18AP PDK 0.9.1GA. The key simulation and research projects (such as PPA) are tracking in line with expectations, and Apple is now waiting for Intel to release PDK 1.0/1.1, currently scheduled for 1Q26. Apple's plan is for Intel to begin shipping its lowest-end M processor, utilizing the 18AP advanced node, as early as 2Q–3Q27, but the actual timeline remains contingent on development progress following the receipt of PDK 1.0/1.1.
While Kuo's track record is hit-or-miss, that's usually only when he tries to veer outside of his wheelhouse in Apple's supply-chain. He seemingly has good details for this shift here. And, of course, this follows other reports from earlier this year that Apple might through Intel that foundry bone they so desperately need.
To be clear, this wouldn't be Apple handing a big chunk of their chip manufacturing to Intel – it's a tiny sliver of the work TSMC does for the company. That's in line with how I guessed such a partnership might play out back in September:
I say "tall" because it also feels unlikely given the tight relationship between Apple and TSMC – with the former often first in line for the newest processes coming out of the latter. But again, maybe if Trump specifically asks Apple, Tim Cook will figure out a way to use Intel to fab some of their chips. Apple has a lot of them these days, beyond just their CPUs. If you squint, you can almost see a world in which Intel helps Apple make their 'C' line of chips, which would be an extra nice narrative since their modem chips were born out of Apple buying Intel's modem business...
Well, per this report, it's not the 'C' chips – at least not yet – but the lowest end of the 'M' lineup probably makes more sense given both the relative low volumes (and thus, lower stakes – whereas 'C' chips are increasingly going into Apple's cutting edge devices) and the fact that Apple has been making such chips for years.
Back to Kuo:
Apple’s lowest-end M processor is currently used in the MacBook Air and iPad Pro mainly, with combined shipments of roughly 20 million units for 2025. As MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be impacted by a new more-affordable MacBook model using an iPhone-class processor, shipments of lowest-end M processor in both 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 15–20 million units.
I think he means iPad Air here, not iPad Pro, as the Pro models use the top-of-the-line M chips, of course. If Apple + Intel could hit this second half of 2027 timetable, presumably the "low-end" M chip at the time would be an M4 or M5 chip – yes, the top-of-the-line right now. Currently, the iPad Air ships with an M3 chip and presuming that gets updated early next year to an M4 chip, there's a world in which the 2027 model gets an M5 chip (though who knows about exact product timing by then, obviously).
Meanwhile, the current Mac lineup has the last-generation M4 as the lowest-end chip (well, technically, the Mac Studio still has the M3 Ultra, while the Mac Pro still uses the M2 Ultra (!), but those are obviously higher-end chips). But then there's that interesting Walmart MacBook Air, which is still very much for sale (and, in fact, down to $549 for the holidays) using the M1. You have to believe that this chip, as great as it has been for Apple, will be end-of-life'd sometime soon and it will be interesting if Apple gives Walmart access to say, the M2 or M3 chips to continue selling the product. If so, it's possible that this is the lowest end M chip that Apple intends to make with Intel.
But it's perhaps just as likely that Apple lets that partnership run out with the rumors that they're about to launch their own affordable MacBook early next year. Interestingly enough, this new product apparently wouldn't run on an M chip, but instead on Apple's A-series, built to date for iPhones (and the more affordable iPad). Kuo's report specifically notes the M chip, so presumably this would-be Intel partnership isn't about these chips – and certainly not the ones due soon, of course.
If Apple is about to move towards only using their lowest-end M chips in the iPad Air (with the lowest-end of the MacBook lineup shifting to the A chips), this might make even more sense volume-wise to try Intel's hand here.
But why is Apple throwing Intel, their old CPU partner who they famously parted with on not the best terms when they spanked them with the introduction of the M-series itself several years back, a bone here? Well, presumably they like the notion of continuing to diversify their manufacturing away from single points of failure – which TSMC very much is right now. Intel clearly isn't ready or able to take over all of Apple's chip business – but they likely never will, as in an ideal world, Apple would have multiple fab partners, all around the world, for making their chips.
Speaking of the world, this Intel partnership would obviously also give Apple a nice "made in America" narrative once again – and give Tim Cook something else to hand to President Trump on a golden platter. You'll recall that the current largest owner of Intel is... the US Government.
But the biggest question mark here remains if Intel can use such a deal to truly ramp their fab business into an actual rival to TSMC. This deal would be a nice, marquee name, of course, but it's mainly for the optics right now. Can Apple help them whip the actual chip-making processes into shape? Will it give others the confidence to go with Intel? Amazon? Microsoft? AMD?!
One more thing: sort of humorous to think of this news in the context of Intel's old "Intel Inside" marketing campaigns. If Intel starts producing Apple chips, there would technically be Intel inside, though not the chip itself, but the process.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler