Selling High & Buying Lower than Should Be Possible

As much as I might like to draw some analogy to VC or AI or anything tech-related, really, I just want to type out some thoughts on this weekend's Luka Doncic/Anthony Davis trade because it's so bonkers.¹

It's so wild that everyone assumed it was a fake/parody tweet and/or Shams Charania's account was hacked when it hit. But it's real and it's spectacular (unless you're a Mavs fan). A few more top-of-mind thoughts:

• This is one of the three best players in the NBA right now being traded in what is likely the year leading up to his prime. Obviously, we can't know that for sure with Doncic, but historically, the late 20s are the prime NBA years for players and he's 25, turning 26 later this month...
  • That alone should make him un-tradeable/un-gettable, but it was apparently Dallas that called the Lakers to do the deal.
• The initial speculation is all around how Doncic continues to have weight/fitness issues and that may be related to why he's been hurt recently (out since Christmas). But still! You can fix such things. Even if they've tried a hundred times, for a player of his skillset, you just keep trying.
  • And if you do trade him, again, you don't do so right before his peak. And certainly not when he has another year after this season left on his deal.
  • And if for some reason you decide you still need to do that, you don't just call one team and then take their best offer which every single person seemingly agrees is not good enough. Or even two teams. You call all the teams. You get every pick they have for years. You get pick-swaps. You get everything. And then you get more. It really makes you question if something else is up that hasn't come out yet. And well, we'll just have to see! It just doesn't make sense, on any level, on the surface.
• Another key bit of speculation is that Dallas didn't want to have to pay Doncic his max contract next year, and perhaps they dealt him early to not have to deal with the inevitable fan backlash around that move.
  • But also, if you're not going to pay him, who are you going to pay? Dallas has not been a cheap team and yes, there are new owners – a famous billionaire family that wants to turn Dallas into Las Vegas East or something. And they just traded their most marquee player. The future of the franchise. One of the top 3 players in the league who may end up as one of the best players of all time. This feels like a literal sucker bet? Good luck with Las Vegas East.
  • How pissed must Mark Cuban be right now? I'm expecting a "don't sell your company" – look, a tech angle! – tweet sooner or later...
• Anthony Davis is a great player. And last year was perhaps his best season. But he's 31, turning 32 next month. The odds he gets better and/or continues to match the output of last season is diminishing. He also has a history of health issues, some of which are undoubtedly more concerning than the ones we know about Doncic. Especially when mixed with the age issue, he's a big man, etc.
  • Yes, he's infinitely better at playing defense than Doncic. And that seems to be the party line right now on Dallas' side. But you can get other great defenders to play around Doncic. Almost all won't be as good as Davis, of course. But still, it's a gap you can fill. You cannot fill a Doncic gap.
• The fact that LeBron James is basically an afterthought in this whole discussion is wild. And that includes with the Lakers, who apparently told him after it was done!
  • Is that disrespectful? I mean, maybe sort of. But if it was what the Lakers had to do in order to ensure it didn't leak, and/or they had to move that fast – like on the phone, right there – no one would blame them, beyond maybe LeBron. But even he has to understand this? It's just a crazy deal.
  • Also, you know who doesn't have weight/fitness issues, ever? LeBron James. Even at 40. You know who tends to get teammates to buy into such fitness regimens?...
• Speaking of 40, how much longer can we (and the Lakers) reasonably expect LeBron to play? He achieved his goal of playing alongside his son. He owns basically every personal record. If anything, this deal might rejuvenate him for another year or two, when he clearly won't be the #1 scoring option every night for the first time. Davis would spell him in this regard from time to time, but never fully took over. Doncic obviously will.
  • I'm torn on this since, as a native Clevelander, I had hoped LeBron might do one last hurrah in Cleveland just to say goodbye. But this Cavs team is also too good to allow for a "farewell tour" right now. I mean, they just beat the Doncic-less Mavs by 43 – they had 91 points by halftime.
    • Are we sure Doncic was the defensive problem?!
  • So this move gives LeBron a nice narrative of riding off into the sunset leaving the Lakers better than he found them for the future. When his $50M/year salary comes off the books, the Lakers will be able to sign another superstar to pair with Doncic. They'll likely have their pick and the next decade is seemingly set.
• Again, Davis is great and he and LeBron were very good together. He was the other key part of their 2020 title. But it's very likely downhill from here. It's a classic "sell high" move, but the Lakers somehow also managed to buy lower than should have been possible with Doncic.
  • Yes, the Lakers were playing good basketball right now, there's a real risk this move disrupts all of that. Especially on the defensive front, and especially as the Lakers now have no center. But they'll obviously trade for one. Whomever that is won't be as good as Davis but, see: above.
  • Also, the Lakers record seems a bit misleading, even when you just look at point differential, they're an outlier. Regardless, no one believes they were really a title contender this year. And if you're not a title contender, what's the point of simply being "pretty good"? To sell tickets, I suppose. But you know what will sell a lot more tickets? Luka Doncic.
• So the Lakers could actually be slightly worse in the short-term – especially with Doncic coming off a long injury and now with no center – but long-term, this is great for them. Likely better than great – again, unless there's something we don't know here. The Mavs? I mean, maybe they'll be slightly better in the short-term if Kyrie Irving steps up even further. But he has a history of throwing tantrums for a lot less than this. They're also now a much older team with Klay Thompson and the like. At best, their window is likely this year or next.
  • And while they made the Finals last year, does this move them ahead of of the – um, eight – teams ahead of them in the standings? I mean, maybe the Lakers this year? But probably not the Nuggets or Rockets. And certainly not the Grizzlies or Thunder. And that's just the Western Conference. Can they really avenge the Celtics loss in the finals now? If you insert Davis into the game I mentioned above against the Cavs, I'm guessing they don't score 91 points in a half, but can the Mavs really beat them this year? Could they even beat the Knicks?
• How pissed is Doncic going to be given that he apparently didn't ask for this trade, so it has to be viewed as a slight. Also, it likely cost him something to the tune of $100M in terms of the max contract he can now sign. He'll be okay. But perhaps more motivated!
  • His endorsement deals will undoubtedly shoot up with this deal, though so will his taxes thanks to California.

That's 1,500 words. With this deal, you really could go on and on. But that's what talk radio will be for over the next many weeks and months. Gentlemen, start the conspiracy theories about Adam Silver doing this to save a sagging NBA.

¹ And actually, I've written about the NBA a number of times over the years. Including these types of mega deals. Even I was surprised when I looked back.