Don't Switch What Ain't Broken
Happy Nintendo Switch 2 Day! How's it looking out there?
Online pre-orders have been strong, while shoppers in Japan have been told to manage their expectations of grabbing one in-store on Thursday. The pattern has been replicated worldwide, with shops holding midnight launches but stating that they expect the device to sell out quickly, driven by hype and an impressive roster of games ready for players.
“In the UK, pre-orders closed down in a minute, in France the same thing and in the US there were multiple crashes online . . . people had to queue up overnight just so they could pre-order [in stores],” said Atul Goyal, an analyst at Jefferies. He predicts Nintendo will sell 15mn units, in line with the company’s guidance for the fiscal year. Other analysts have pr edicted 20mn units or more.
There had been varying reports of how well – or not well – the Switch 2 might sell out of the gate. This perception was not helped by the weird review unit strategy Nintendo employed this go-around. Which is to say, no one got a review unit. Because there needed to be a software update. Or something. Normally, when movie studios don't allow critics to screen a movie ahead of time...
But that doesn't really seem like the case here. It just sort of seems like Nintendo being Nintendo. Which is to say, quirky. And everything I'm seeing online suggests that sales are in fact very strong. While the pre-orders all sold out, many retailers seemingly saved some stock for day one in-store sales and that caused a lot of long lines around the world – which is always a good strategy, optically, if nothing else.
Me? I don't have a Switch 2 – yet. A sort of annoying/boring quirk around having my Nintendo account tied to the US while living in the UK meant pre-ordering didn't happen for me. BUT, I actually was able to snag one today through a little retailer known as Amazon. Remarkably, it's coming tomorrow.1 That surprised me a bit, but the stock looks to be sold out now. So maybe I just had good timing.
I'm still a bit torn on the Switch 2 strategy overall. It makes sense – take what clearly worked, and make it better – but will it be different enough to truly keep the needle moving for Nintendo? I don't know. That strategy works for the iPhone, but you do everything on your iPhone. Including, of course, quite a bit of gaming. But aside from a few tangential titles (and awesome emulators), not with the IP firepower that Nintendo brings to do the table, of course.
Timing-wise, Nintendo was probably about a year late in bringing forward a Switch 2 – in particular if they were always going to go with a "Better Switch" strategy. But it could be worse: they could be Sony and Microsoft just in the middle of their latest console lifecycles, which seem comically long in the tooth in 2025:
Analysts also view the Switch 2 as indicating where games hardware might be headed, with its release coinciding with the midpoint of the life cycles of the latest Xbox and PlayStation consoles.
“It’s clear Microsoft and Sony’s console model needs a radical overhaul to compete,” said Sutcliffe. “Switch 2 is the only hardware growth story in gaming.”
Microsoft seems to be on the verge of some sort of handheld Xbox something, perhaps through a partnership. But they always seem on the verge of something like that. (And a hundred other strategies.) I suspect the Switch 2 will just reinvigorate those calls. I just still wish they called it 'Super Switch'.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
1 Yes, the bundle with Mario Kart World, obviously.