2 Switch 2 Similar?
The first teaser video for the Nintendo Switch 2 dropped just as I was publishing the newsletter today. Now I've had a bit more time to digest. Some thoughts...
While my gut reaction was a good one to the video, that's in part because it's so familiar. And the video doesn't shy away from that fact at all. It opens on a shot of the Switch transforming into... a bigger Switch. It features Joy-Cons which are familiar Joy-Cons, but bigger, to accommodate the bigger Switch. It has a kickstand which is bigger, to accommodate the bigger Switch. A dock which is... You get it.
The question is if you'll get it. As in buy it. As in, will it move a similar volume to what the first Switch has now sold – nearly 150 million units, second only to the Nintendo DS in the illustrious history of the company? While I realize I'm basing this off of a two minute teaser trailer, the main question looks like it will be if this is big enough of an upgrade over the original Switch. After all, Nintendo has already done two "upgrades" to the Switch over its eight-year lifespan, in the form of the more compact 'Switch Lite', and a slightly larger Switch in the form of the OLED model a few years back. With the latter in particular the question will be: how big of an improvement is the Switch 2?
While Nintendo gave zero specs today alongside the video, it looks like (and rumors have suggested) that the Switch 2 will have an 8" screen versus the 6.2" original and the 7" found on the OLED version. Notably, the bezels are quite a bit smaller, but there are still bezels. The far larger, figuratively this time, upgrade should be in the other, internal specs.
There, the almost comically long lifespan of the Switch should actually help. When the device launched in 2017, it featured an NVIDIA Tegra 1 chip.1 The iPhone 7 had just launched a few months prior. Imagine if you had that phone with an A10 chip and you were upgraded to an iPhone 16 with an A18 chip? Presumably it would seem almost infinitely faster.2
At the same time, the original Switch, remarkably, doesn't seem slow at the moment. I used it last night. Undoubtedly this is thanks to the bespoke software and games tailored specifically for it. So it will probably boil down to the new software/games that just wouldn't be able to run on the original Switch.
There, we only got a brief glimpse of a new Mario Kart game. Presumably it's new, anyway. Nintendo isn't saying anything about it, only that their first gaming showcase will take place in April. Assuming it is new, it also looks good but... not drastically different from what you can run on the Switch right now. So, we'll see.
Again, it's obviously unfair to try to extrapolate all this out of a sizzle reel, but this is the internet! And we've been waiting years and years for this device. If they weren't busy completely reimagining the wheel, what took Nintendo so long?
The answer is undoubtedly that they didn't need to release a new Switch until now because their incredible games thanks to their incredible IP has carried them to those incredible sales. You could probably argue that they're a year late to this upgrade, but not much more than that given the results.
But now it will be entirely on the Switch 2's shoulders to carry that burden. Nintendo has a mixed track record when it comes to follow-up consoles. In terms of direct follow-ups (so I'll leave out the GameCube here which was sort of a different, tiny, cute, purple animal), the Super Nintendo was obviously a successful sequel to the NES – though not quite as successful in terms of sales. The Nintendo 64 was also moderately successful, though not as successful as the SNES, let alone the NES. The Wii U was a disastrous follow-up to the massively successful Wii. The company has a more even track record with handhelds – and the Switch is sort of a hybrid, of course – but still, there's no guarantee of an absolute home run here.
The good news on that front is that because they're not re-inventing the wheel, it seems pretty clear that as long as the games are good, the system will sell. From everything we can tell so far, the gameplay should be largely similar to the Switch. But the real home runs for Nintendo have come from the "game changer" consoles – the Wii and the Switch itself. The systems that went against the grain with unique aspects and control paradigms. That's not the Switch 2.
Again, that seems to be Nintendo's plan here. From the name on down. I still would have preferred 'Super Switch' and think it could have worked, but they undoubtedly want to make it clear that this was the new version of the old, trusty Switch. It's like the iPhone. You might think you want something totally different form-factor-wise because you're bored or whatnot. But you likely just want a faster iPhone. And so that is what Apple has more or less given you, 17 years in a row.
Nintendo takes their time with such upgrades, but they're clearly aiming to deliver the same great taste. And with that in mind, the backwards compatibility is key. Even if they're slow to roll out new games, if the Switch 2 can simply play your old favorites, faster,3 that should be enough to entice many to upgrade. Especially now that we all live in a world where smartphone cycles have taught us to upgrade hardware every few years (if not more often). I got my Switch seven years ago, obviously I'm going to "upgrade".
So that all should be good when it comes to the "base". But will the Switch 2 expand the market? I mean, certainly there are new gamers who have aged in over the past few years and haven't gotten a Switch yet. And others who will be born and age in over the course of the Switch 2's presumed life span. Aging out should be less of an issue, but there will be some of that as well, of course. Still, it's hard to see how it radically alters the current market given the similarities to the current hardware, but a blockbuster game or two could change that equation.4
Regardless, you have to think Nintendo would be thrilled to sell another 150M Switches this go-around. Even 100M – a number only the Wii and original Game Boy crossed alongside the Switch and Nintendo DS – would be good.5 But below that probably wouldn't be. That's the thing, Nintendo sort of set a floor here by going back to the well. The Switch 2 better be super, even if not in name.
1 When the Switch launched, in March 2017, NVIDIA had a market cap of $60B. Today, that market cap is $3.35T.
2 I have to assume some people out there are still using an iPhone 7? Even though it can't run the latest iOS software. The main issue would probably be holding a charge...
3 Or even just on a larger screen...
4 Perhaps a new accessory?
5 Price will obviously be a key factor here as well. Does Nintendo go for $299? Something higher this time? Also, will there be color options beyond the accents we see in the video? Are those saved for later?