Meta's March to Make the iPhone 'The Thing That Gets Us to the Thing'
"Computers aren't the thing. They're the thing that gets us to the thing." This quote by Joe MacMillan in the pilot episode of Halt & Catch Fire often pops into my head. And it did again while reading recent reports about the next generation computing hardware that Big Tech is currently working on.
Specifically, Meta seems to be singularly focused on creating the next computing paradigm. They keep putting more irons in the fire. No abbreviation will be left untapped: VR. AI. AR. XR. And now they're seemingly searching tangential to those markets to find something, anything that can bring about the next thing. Smart sunglasses for sports. Smart watches. Even smart headphones. Everything is now on the table.
Why? Because, to channel MacMillan again, Meta needs to believe that: "Smartphones aren't the thing. They're the thing that gets us to the thing."
Without question, smartphones are now the thing. And you can certainly argue that computers were the thing that got us to that thing. Apple, which had long ago been lapped by Microsoft and the PC makers from a business and market share perspective where able to leverage their computing expertise (mixed with their iPod experience and their work on the multi-touch interface) to usher in this next thing. And they were rewarded handsomely for it. At the end of 2006 before the iPhone was announced, Apple's market cap was around $70B. At the end of 2024, their market cap set a new record as the most valuable company, ever, at $3.86T.
We'll round up. 18 years and $3.8T in market cap added largely because of one device. The iPhone. The smartphone. The thing.
Now, you could argue that this thing, which is still the current thing, is in the process of being supplanted by the next thing: AI. Certainly, the budgets of Big Tech point in that direction and belief.1 And that obviously includes Meta, which has gotten dinged by Wall Street not just once, but twice, around their AI spend. And that's after getting really dinged around their XR spend. Again, everyone is chasing these markets, that's what makes the tech world flourish, but none seem more existentially committed than Meta. I mean, they changed the name of the entire company to convey the bet on what's next.
And we all know why. Meta's current properties, their social networks, are all beholden to the smartphone kings. Without them, they might exist as sliver of themselves on the old thing, computers, but they would not be a part of the Big Tech gang right now. Mark Zuckerberg would not be on stage at Presidential inaugurations. He might still have to kiss the ring, but he could do so less obnoxiously.
Google hedged this risk correctly with the acquisition/creation of Android.2 Meta – then still Facebook – tried.3 But it was too little, too late.4 And that opened up Facebook to a lot of risk. They were someone else's "bitch", as Fred Wilson used to put it. Apple made that abundantly clear when they rolled out the App Tracking Transparency (ATT) changes in 2021. Those tweaks to data and personal information tracking on the iPhone targeted one company above all others. Facebook was fucked.
They eventually figured out a way around and then through thanks to their scale. But the shock shook Zuckerberg. It was now existential: smartphones could not be the thing, they had to be the thing that gets us to the thing. And Facebook needed to be the first to that next thing.
A few years later and tens of billions of dollars burned, it looks like we're inching down such a path. Again, everyone knows about the potential of AI, but that AI still needs to run somewhere. Right now, that's mainly on the last three things: PCs, the internet, and smartphones. The middle one is interesting in relation to AI because it too needs to run somewhere and you can certainly argue that it – the web, specifically – was the true innovation that allowed for the rise of the smartphone. So will AI do the same for a new device, or new series of devices?
Basically every company not named Apple and Google are hoping this will be the case, but the jury is still out, to say the least. The early attempts at "AI devices" flopped so badly that they'd get fined in the NBA.
But to quote Yoda this time, "there is another."
Well would you look at that – Meta somehow was able to take what Snap started doing with their Spectacles idea and perfected it. Part of it was Ray-Ban, but a bigger part was simply timing: better cameras, connectivity, components, and yes, AI. But guess what? They still need a smartphone to be operational. That damn old thing strikes back!
If you want to hear true frustration, listen to Zuckerberg on The Joe Rogan Podcast,5 towards the end, the two of them go on a sort of tedious and disingenuous rant about Apple, but what kicks Zuck into high gear is the idea that they can make all these new products like the Ray-Bans but can't access the same connection technology that Apple leverages for products like the AirPods and Apple Watch.
Meta's "true" AR glasses – currently codenamed 'Orion' but seemingly soon to be called 'Artemis', per reporting from Mark Gurman – look to break this tether. With all components not yet fully small enough to run on the device itself, Meta has opted to use a puck. That is, a tiny computing device that is neither a PC nor a smartphone. Eventually, they may be able to put this puck on your wrist as a part of their intuitive new neural control system (shout out CTRL Labs) or even their own smart watch – before eventually moving fully onto the glasses themselves.
Speaking of the smart watch, this is a long-gestating, on-again/off-again project within Meta, but perhaps the fact that the Apple Watch can now pretty much run as a standalone device without the iPhone has given Meta the confidence to continue down the path. Might this be their first truly smartphone-free product to come to market?
Per Gurman's report, it sounds like the first dev kits for the 'Artemis' glasses will go out next year, ahead of a targeted 2027 launch. Before we get either, we'll get a 'Hypernova' version of the Ray-Ban Meta's later this year which will include a small screen in the bottom right lens for the first time. Just as they did to Snap's original Spectacles, might Meta also get Google Glass right thanks to timing and technology? We'll see.
At the very least, these should help push us towards those actual AR glasses. And I think Meta's methodical approach here is the right one – you'd hate for them to rush something out which will simply flop. But this also means you-know-who will be nipping at their heels...
While the Vision Pro failed to destroy the Quest, that was sort of a self-own on Apple's part. And, ironically, in part because they wanted to create a device that was fully stand-alone and didn't need the iPhone (or Mac). Future iterations may change that equation – certainly, there's no better "puck" than the current thing, the iPhone. The question then becomes if using that as a sort of "crutch" prevents you from creating that next thing.
Without question the iPhone is the thing right now. The next question is if it morphs into the thing that gets us to the thing – and how Apple answers that question, since we already know Meta's answer.
1 The laggard, interestingly enough, if you want to call them that, is... Apple. That's certainly interesting from a perspective which is perhaps more tangential to an actual Innovator's Dilemma situation here: maybe they just really don't want to believe that anything else can be the thing!
2 Of course, Amazon tried as well -- building on top of Android. But it failed spectacularly, of course. But Amazon also isn't nearly as beholden to the world of smartphones as Meta/Facebook is and was.
3 Building an OS -- and trying to build an entire phone -- on top of Android.
4 One could argue that they got distracted by the promise of HTML5. Remember that? I certainly do.
5 Actually, save yourself the time, it's three hours of pretty hot air, perhaps most notable -- beyond the whole "masculine" workplace nonsense -- for Zuckerberg just constantly replying to Rogan's crazy, conspiratorial asides with "yeah".