The Year-Round iPhone
Wayne Ma
There is a lot in this report from Wayne Ma on the future of the iPhone lineup. He kicks off with the apparent trepidation within the supply chains (and seemingly, Apple itself) about the forthcoming thin iPhone – aka, the 'iPhone Air':
Apple’s hope is to rejuvenate long-stagnant sales of the iPhone, its flagship product, which accounts for more than half its revenue. But there are risks involved in the upcoming changes. The level of consumer demand for the new thin iPhone is so uncertain that Apple’s manufacturing partners in Asia are dedicating only about 10% of their production capacity to the new model, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
They’re reserving most of their production for the iPhone 17 Pro Max and Pro, which will account for around 40% and 25% of total production, respectively, the people said. The rest will be reserved for the standard iPhone 17 model.
This suggests that they're anticipating the 'iPhone 17 Pro Max' to outsell the 'iPhone 17 Air' by 4x. That feels awfully conservative. Perhaps worryingly so. I get that it's a sort of a weird product as it's rumored to be neither the top of the line nor the bottom, but spec-wise, just a sort of middle-of-the-pack iPhone. But I also think they might be underestimating how much people care about a device simply looking new and different (and cutting-edge). In some ways, it really feels akin to the original MacBook Air, which wasn't the fastest MacBook, and, in fact, was quite underpowered relative to the rest of the lineup, but it looked sleek as hell.
On the topic of trade-offs:
However, the smaller size of the new thin model will require compromises to its capabilities. The device will contain only a single speaker instead of the two speakers that Apple’s other phones usually have, one rear camera lens instead of the three in Apple’s flagship phones, and reduced battery life. Internal testing shows that battery life for the thin model will fall short of that of previous iPhones. The percentage of users who can go a single day without recharging the thin phone will be between 60% and 70%. For other models, that metric is between 80% and 90%, one of the people said.
To solve this, Apple is developing an optional accessory—a phone case meant for the thin model that also contains a battery pack, according to three people familiar with the matter.
Yeah, I mean the 'iPhone Air' is going to run head-first into the laws of physics. The thinness of the device means it will have a much smaller battery and that, in turn, will ding the battery life, obviously. It makes sense to try to rectify that with some sort of battery case but... it also sort of negates the point and appeal, of course. It's sort of a funny situation where the iPhone Air case-less will probably look awesome, but most of the time, for actual usage, people will carry it around with a battery pack case that makes it look... kind of like every other iPhone.
Release of the thin iPhone will mark the start of a bigger shift in Apple’s iPhone planning. Next year, Apple plans to release its first foldable iPhone, The Information previously reported. The book-style foldable device will have an inner display measuring just under 8 inches diagonally when unfolded and an outer display of just under 5.7 inches diagonally when shut, according to a person involved in its manufacturing.
This is obviously the bigger deal, and I do think the thin iPhone helps them move towards the world of foldables. But this is the biggest scoop of the story:
Also next year, Apple plans to stagger the release of its iPhone by only releasing the premium, more expensive Pro models in the fall and delaying the standard iPhone model—in this case the iPhone 18—until the following spring, according to three people involved in the iPhone supply chain.
The iPhone 18 series will include updated versions of Apple’s thin iPhone, Pro and Pro Max, along with the new foldable device. In spring 2027, Apple plans to release the standard iPhone 18 and a successor to the more budget-friendly iPhone 16e, the people said.
This would be a massive shift in strategy. Releasing the more premium models of the iPhone before the "regular" models would clearly shift the lineup more towards the former in terms of sales. But it would probably also help the lineup overall in allowing Apple to be constantly shipping new devices at different price points. And it would shift the hardware back to a state more in-step with software, as iOS is increasingly now released year-round, versus all-at-once in the fall.
This is the old tried and true "if you really care about the latest and greatest, pay up" model. But it also has the side benefit of perhaps allowing Apple to stagger production a bit more, which in turn could help diversify production a bit more – as in, to other countries outside of China for the latest models.
One more thing:
One of the more significant changes to the iPhone lineup could arrive in 2026, when Apple likely plans to move its Face ID, proximity and light sensors beneath the display—bringing it closer to offering a fully uninterrupted screen, free of the unsightly pill-shaped cutout at the top. Apple wouldn’t be the first smartphone maker to integrate sensors and cameras under the display, though the results haven’t been great for many of the Chinese smartphone makers at the forefront of this trend.
The design of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max will include only a small hole cutout in the top-left corner to accommodate the front-facing camera, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. This design is a precursor to at least one 2027 iPhone model that will place the front-facing camera underneath the screen to enable a truly edge-to-edge display, two of the people said. Such a move would coincide with the 20-year anniversary of the first iPhone.
This is sort of the 'Dynamic Island' floating away. First to the upper left of the device next year, and then potentially sinking under the ocean of pixels. This is, of course, the iPhone design that everyone has always wanted, and it makes sense to try to make it happen for the 20th anniversary of the device – the most iconic piece of technology in history, perhaps. But I'm also sure it's much easier said than done.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler