Oh, the Humanity of Vision Pro

Arguing about the shipment projections for Apple's Vision Pro is sort of like arguing about how many tickets were sold on the fateful Hindenburg journey.¹ For one thing, we're going to find out the number one way or another, eventually.² For another, we're sort of overlooking the massive airship exploding in the sky.

Two things can be true: the Vision Pro can be a technical marvel and yet the Vision Pro can also be a building PR disaster for Apple.

And so I'm left wondering why Apple didn't take a totally different approach here. Why didn't they simply release the initial batches of Vision Pro as a true dev kit? I know this isn't really Apple's playbook, but they've also done it to varying degrees in the past when needed, such as with the Mac transitions to new CPUs. Obviously this is quite different as a full-on new product category for Apple. But I'm just not sure they've done themselves any favors by releasing the Vision Pro into the world given the current state of things.

Again, the device itself, from a technical standpoint, is amazing. But it's also deeply flawed as a consumer device. First and foremost, it's a pain the ass to actually use regularly. This, above all else I suspect, is leading to owners using the device less over time. That's disastrous for any company, but especially Apple. Yes, it's anecdotal data, but it's also more than that. I know roughly a dozen people who bought the device, all report the same thing: once the novelty and "wow" factor of the device wore off, they're using it less and less.

Anyone who says otherwise lives alone. And actually, three of those people I know with the device live alone and they report the same basic usage pattern. So anyone who claims otherwise lives on a plane. With great WiFi, apparently. And the strongest neck known to mankind.

A second key component of this problem is that Apple has been way, way, way too slow to populate the device with content that might demand you do the laborious work to use it. This means exclusive 'Apple Immersive' content made for the device – which is stunning, though far too short – which Apple seems to ship on a tri-monthly basis right now. And content made by others but converted to a format that does well on the device, such as 3D. And it means apps. Apple undoubtedly thought developers would be there for the new Apple hardware on day one. For the most part, they were not.

And now, a full quarter after its release, they're still not there. Sure, there's the occasional new release, but for the most part, Apple is highlighting the same apps and updates to those apps, over and over again. And if anything, developers are perhaps even less likely to build for the device right now. Because it just has a stink around it like product roadkill.

This isn't entirely fair, of course. The device is still U.S.-only, which will change shortly and will lead to some sort of boost in sales and usage (though just how much remains to be seen with the world having seen the reports from the U.S. about the device's issues). And, of course, it's $3,500.

Some will argue that this price alone is how Apple effectively made it a dev kit. But make no mistake: Apple doesn't ship devices not to sell them. In their perfect world, the Vision Pro would have exploded out of the gate and just kept going. Like the iPad. Instead there are reports of just a few units sold a week in various Apple Stores. Sometimes none. None. None!

If nothing else, this is growing into a PR nightmare for Apple. If perception is um, reality, this first Vision Pro is trending towards failure. Apple will live and can easily afford such a flop. And the good news is that the amount of R&D poured into this device and space all but ensures they'll keep going. But they're making it harder on themselves. Perhaps impossible.

And so I ask again: why did they not release this as a developer kit first and seed the market ahead of a true consumer launch? Keep a feeling of exclusivity amongst developers who would feel "lucky" to have access to such future technology, early, and as such, would work hard to build impressive apps and services for it. And it would keep an aura of envy and desire amongst the broader public not yet privy to the device except through whispers of how cool it is and selective, inevitable NDA-breaching leaks of some details.

Obviously Apple must have debated this, but they chose poorly. Easy to say in hindsight, of course. And others have noted that it's brave of Apple to put the Vision Pro out there despite the market not being there. But it's not brave, it's foolish and could actually backfire. We've seen the general VR space fail to launch so many times now over so many years. Apple, you were the chosen one!

Back to my hypothetical, after a year or so of only select developers being allowed inside of Willy Wonka's factory, you throw open the gates in 2025. By then, the $3,500 dev kit can be sold for $2,499 – or even better, $1,999. Still way too expensive, but such is the way of Apple. Maybe EyeSight works better by then after another year baking. Or maybe it's scrapped for the consumer release, improving battery life, weight, and cost. Personas is perfected (rather than rolling out in piecemeal fashion). Certainly far more 'Apple Immersive' content is ready to roll. As are games.³ A few truly innovative apps have been created by developers given enough time to work. And so on...

Meanwhile, Apple can focus more on getting AI answers out the door to please Wall Street, while not having to put out any and every Vision Pro public fire in real time.⁴ WWDC 2024 gets a few key Vision Pro updates and the developer pool is greatly expanded to those attendees of the event, with a consumer launch stated to be "early 2025". But the event itself is mainly AI, AI, AI, AI, AI.

Fast forward to the launch, and the Vision Pro is ready to go in a dozen markets with hundreds (thousands given that it won't be U.S.-only?) of purpose-built apps ready to roll. It's expected that a second generation will be about a year away, as is Apple's way... Momentum out of the gates!

Back to (non-spatial) reality, the latest reports indicate that we may not see a second generation of Vision Pro until 2026. Can you imagine Apple having to answer the above questions over and over again over the next two years? And really, that would probably be a better situation than the worse one: that no one asks questions about the device anymore because no one cares anymore.

Yes, they may do a price cut in the meantime – I mean, at some point it feels like they'll have to. But that won't really matter if the other issues aren't resolved. A $1,700 Vision Pro is better than a $3,500 Vision Pro, I guess, but kind of in the way that a $250,000 Lamborghini is "better" than a $500,000 Lamborghini. A price cut, even in half, isn't going to drastically alter the market for this device.

And I'm not sure Apple should want that right now! A less expensive device that's still a pain to use with few apps and scarce content is not the goal. Certainly not for Apple. It's basically the opposite of their goal.

So I guess the best we can hope for is a full reset of the line in 2026. And the best Apple can hope for is that enough time has past that the aroma of stink no longer lingers. That the content coffers are filled. That the apps have arrived. And that the ever-charging progress of technology has shrunk components and costs enough to make this a much different value proposition. Of all those, the latter is probably the most likely. Which is still problematic for Apple.

I hope I'm wrong, but I fear I'm not. All the passengers screaming around here!

¹ For the record, there were 36 passengers on board (as well as 61 crewmen). Amazingly, 23 of those passengers somehow survived (as did 39 crewmen). In addition, one person was killed on the ground as a result of the disaster. ↩

² Apple reports first quarter earnings next week -- the first quarter with Vision Pro sales. They won't break them out, of course -- they'll undoubtedly be lumped into Wearables -- but it will be interesting if we hear anything (beyond vague platitudes) about how it is selling (or not -- lol, as if!). Regardless, you can expect some analysts to try to back into the numbers, and thus the arguments about projections will begin anew! ↩

³ The new Crossy Road release is actually very good -- and has an interesting new hand gesture control paradigm involving your thumbs on top of pinching. This is exactly the stuff, alongside Spatial Personas, that should have been baked in the oven for a bit ahead of serving at launch... ↩

⁴ If nothing else, it does seem like bad timing on Apple's part to launch their XR product into a world where all anyone (and certainly Wall Street) cares about is AI. ↩