The Post-Search Google
Julia Love & Davey Alba
There are a few interesting tidbits in Julia Love and Davey Alba's cover story on the current state (and future) of Google for Bloomberg Businessweek – such as the opening which recalls a meeting in 2021 where the question was asked if a chatbot should replace the search box on Google – but mainly I was interested in just how closely the arc of this story follows a few columns I've written over the past year.
After the 2021 meeting, they dive into how the company more or less failed to seize an opportunity to get ahead in AI because of your typical large incumbent company problems. Yes, it's a bit of the Innovator's Dilemma, but it's just as much about the company being too timid to take risks given both the success and scale at which they were operating. But what really sets this situation apart and makes it all the more frustrating is that the core technology, transformers, which OpenAI and others were starting to leverage was developed within Google, of course.
M.G. Siegler
From there, it sort of morphs into the "holy shit" moment, when Google realized that the ChatGPT threat was potentially very real and spectacular. The piece also serves as a profile of Liz Reid – a 20+ year Googler who a year ago took over the all-important Search division. She sort of humorously and oddly downplays the ChatGPT threat in the story, comparing the reaction internally to the situation that happened when Microsoft launched Bing. (They also missed this shot.) But I just think that's a very different situation since Bing was just a sort of weak copy of Google. ChatGPT is actually changing user behavior around search – in particular with young people.
M.G. Siegler
Of course, if you just follow Google's own actions, and not their words, you'd obviously see how seriously they're taking this. Just look at how fast they've been moving in rolling out a test of "AI Mode". And that "test" keeps expanding. And it will keep expanding. I've been using it a bit in recent weeks and it's well done. This is exactly how Google should be responding to this threat. They remained positioned well.
M.G. Siegler
Lastly, the story delves into how such a shift – from web search to AI – may alter the very fabric of the web. In particular the relationship with publishers. It's impossible to overstate how big of a change this will be to the way the internet has worked to date and everyone really needs to get ahead of figuring out the right economic model to make it work – for all sides.
M.G. Siegler
Anyway, it all reads like yes, Google is starting to feel the pressure around search – one of my ten key predictions for 2025 – both internally and externally. They can say that they aren't and that everything is fine, but again, just follow the actions. And buckle up!
M.G. Siegler