Dispatch 026
Something Sora this way comes. As expected – though it doesn't seem live just yet. Instead, we get a preview/review from Marques Brownlee on YouTube – which makes sense, it's video! It looks well-done, a lot like ChatGPT itself (and DALL-E when that was stand-alone), but apparently will be separate (on sora.com), at least to start. His outputs look both fascinating and a bit rough and pretty weird – just as AI images were to start (and still are in ways). Expect a whole new wave of wonder and controversy...
I Think...
🤖 Sam Altman Lowers the Bar for AGI – Between this and the recent maneuvers to alter OpenAI's prenup with Microsoft to allow them to stay together even after "AGI" is achieved, it sure feels like the company is gearing up to declare that AGI is here, perhaps early next year. At the same time, I'm reminded a bit of the declaring of "parley" in the Pirates of the Caribbean films. Are you sure we fully understand what we're declaring, or just doing so to stop an AI war? Of course, the reality is that no one was ever going to agree on an actual definition for AGI – some would even say we're already there! – so why not just say you've achieved it, while moving the goal post to say the real achievement is "superintelligence"? This shift has been in motion for a while. One thing I do agree with: whatever you want to call any of these things, there's also unlikely to be one, big 'AHA!' moment. Instead, it will gradually become clear what amazing technology we now wield. In a way, in hindsight, perhaps the unveiling of ChatGPT itself will be viewed as the AGI moment. [Verge]
📳 Apple Explores Macs, Headsets With Built-In Cellular Data – While the roll-out will start small, with next year's iPhone SE, its arrival points to bigger (and smaller) things – including, yes, Macs with cellular connectivity, Mark Gurman reports. That's a couple years away at least, but would be a big deal to many of us who have been waiting a decade or more for this. It's not as easy as it sounds – macOS would also have to be altered so as not to overuse data when connected, etc – but the battery life is so great in MacBooks now that this seems like less of an issue. Also, this could help bring about a foldable iPhone, with Apple able to mold the modem exactly as they want (read: thinner). And it all points to being able to do always-connected AR glasses, one day. [Bloomberg 🔒]
☎️ AT&T Gave Up on the Media Business, and Its Stock Has Surged – Remember when AT&T owned HBO and tried to drive it into the ground? Fun times. It feels like decades ago, but the spin-off/sale was just two and a half years ago. And Wall Street has since rewarded the company for focusing back on their core business. Meanwhile, Warner Bros Discovery is now in the precarious spot, thanks in part due to the debt AT&T gave them as a parting gift. It's like AT&T is living the famous bundling/unbundling quote in real-time. The bundling deals they did – led by now CEO John Stankey, no less – including the deal for DirecTV, now look even worse given the unbundling success. How can you do worse than the "worst merger ever"? By authoring a few of them. Hopefully it doesn't stop Apple from looking into buying HBO – which they should! [WSJ 🔒]
🇪🇺 Trump is on Collision Course With EU Over Big Tech Crackdown – All of this feels up in the air at the moment. We have a new EU competition chief who just started last week. Normally, you'd think that Teresa Ribera would just follow the path of her predecessor, Margrethe Vestager. But there are signs that the EC may be thawing a bit when it comes to their stance on regulate-first-and-ask-questions-later. Meanwhile, we have a new American administration coming into the White House in January. That itself is a total wildcard with early moves and indications that both pro-Big-Tech and anti-Big-Tech. Hard to imagine Trump letting the EU fine Apple to death. Meta, maybe. But not Apple. And in general, I would guess the stance is something like "we'll regulate our own companies, you manage yours". But AI is going to be a big wrinkle here too. [Bloomberg 🔒]
⚾️ Mets land Juan Soto on 15-year, $765M deal – When Shohei Ohtani signed his $700M deal, it seemed like it would be the biggest deal for a long time. Maybe forever given his unique skillset and situation. It didn't even last a year. Granted, Ohtani's deal was for "only" 10 years, so the per-year salary is technically higher. But Ohtani's deal also has the wild deferment (97% of his contract is deferred for 10 years after the actual contract – so it's sort of a 20 year contract, in a way) – Soto's deal has no deferment. Look, he's a great player. I especially appreciate all the walks while limiting strikeouts (though that has been shifting over the years as he hits more for power). I appreciate the OBP and WAR more than the often just okay batting average. And wow did he bet on himself, turning down a $440M deal just two years ago! And he turned down the Yankees here, which I appreciate. But man, he'll be 41 when this deal ends. Hopefully that back half isn't like that of Albert Pujols (last impressive season aside) or most every other player not named Barry Bonds. (And yes, we all know that story.) I also won't mention Mike Trout here except to note that his $426M deal is, well, $339M less than this deal. That deal was signed 5 years ago and also seemed wild at the time. That hasn't worked out so well for either side given the injuries – but had he stayed healthy, now it would look like the steal of the century. (My call about Instagram was far more correct. Perhaps I should stick to tech.) [ESPN]
I Wrote...
M.G. Siegler
I finally watched Wolfs...
M.G. Siegler
If you see a VR handheld controller, they blew it...
I Link...
- More on 'Metamate' the internal AI tool that Meta has been working on to use internally – for now. [FT 🔒]
- Meta, meanwhile, pushed Llama 3.3 70B out the door late last week, which it says offers similar performance to their top model, Llama 3.1 405B, but at a lower cost. It also sounds like this is the last update before Llama 4 next year. [TechCrunch]
- A profile of Troy Baker, the actor who plays a surprising number of main characters in massive video games – including a 1980s-era Indiana Jones in the new Indiana Jones and the Great Circle game. [NYT]
- Michael Mann reaffirms that the next movie he wants to do is Heat 2, but that the screen "has to be finished really soon". [THR]
- A new AI image editor for 'Grok' – Xitter's AI tool, which should soon also exist outside of Xitter. This one can make potentially problematic images even more life-like. [Verge]
- Grok is also now available to all Xitter users, not just paying ones. [Verge]
- Speaking of movies made by Apple with a weird vibe, what's up with the romance/terror hybrid, The Gorge? The trailer is like part Love Actually (you know the scene) and part Pacific Rim and part Pan's Labyrinth? It sounds like Apple is not putting this in theaters and instead, it will be streaming on Apple TV+ on Valentine's Day? Okay! [THR]
- Fox is out there searching for podcasts – or podcast networks – to buy. [Semafor]
- TSMC seems on track to deliver 2nm chips to Apple in time for the iPhone 18 – asks the 2026 iPhone. [MacRumors]
- Everyone knows by now that Jeff Bezos loves his pre-written memos to be read as meetings start, but after that, he embraces "messy" meetings with honest debate rather than just dictation. [NYT]
I Quote...
"And I think it will see he has a choice - he can be either an avid and well-heeled supporter... Or he can try and become a sort of political…puppet master, going well beyond Trump, deciding who the next Republican candidate should be and the one after that, and so on, so forth."
-- Nick Clegg, Meta's president of global affairs, wondering – perhaps a bit too out loud – if Elon Musk might like his proximity to political power a bit too much and as such, will be a fixture in trying to sway elections going forward...
Right now, I would probably bet that he'll grow disillusioned by how literally bureaucratic the entire system is and fade back into the work in his own companies. But we'll see. Those companies do need and can greatly benefit from any sort of political capital and connections, so perhaps that keeps the spark alive.
I Spy...
Marvell, the chip company you rarely hear about, is now valued more highly than Intel at just over $100B in market cap. When CEO Matt Murphy – rumored to be a target for the newly-vacant Intel job, but says he doesn't want it – took over in 2016, Marvell's market cap was around $5B – Intel was over five times larger at that point. Even as recently as earlier this year, Intel was four times larger.
