Dispatch 044: A Super Switch

As expected, news about the follow-up console to the Nintendo Switch just dropped. Well, a teaser trailer anyway. Behold: the Nintendo Switch 2. Certainly, that's worthy of its own post. But for now, I'll just say two things:

1) It looks nice.

2) The 'Super Switch' name was right there for the taking...

I Think...

👍👎 Trump Considers Executive Order Hoping to ‘Save TikTok’ – One idea is an immediate order that would extend the deadline 60 or 90 days to work on another deal, such as a sale, or divestment to take ByteDance's stake below a certain threshold. Two problems there: 1) Trump doesn't take office until the day after the ban would go into effect. 2) It doesn't seem like an EO would have any actual power to overturn/negate the law. So perhaps the hope is just the notion of it compels the Supreme Court to put in place such a postponement (without overturning the law). (While Trump's AG pick, Pam Bondi, declined to say if she would enforce the law in her confirmation hearing, she also would come into office the day after the ban.) The fact that President Biden's team is also apparently working to ensure the app doesn't go dark on Sunday just adds more swirl and confusion to all of this. But the most telling sign as to how this will play out may be the fact that Trump has invited TikTok CEO Shou Chew to the inauguration – sitting on the dais with other VIPs, no less – which suggests he feels confident that a deal will be reached to spare the life of the app. Perhaps Trump will get up on stage and pull a Commodus-in-Gladiator pollice verso move. Thumbs up? [WaPo 🔒]

📈 David Solomon Questions Start-Ups’ Need to List Publicly – The head of Goldman Sachs says the quiet part out loud. Of course, he's at least somewhat incentivized to as they've been doing a lot of the work to enable this (in the face of the dearth of IPOs). Still, he speaks to what has been happening over a few years now. And while you would have thought that the inevitable fall of the Tiger Globals of the world would have pushed capital (and thus, incentives) back to the public markets, other private capital sources keep rising (or coming down to meet these companies where they are). As Solomon notes, if you can raise the money privately, why go through the pain of listing – and really, reporting – publicly? It feels like that's the real tension there. And while other public markets have tried to alleviate the quarterly treadmill, nothing has stuck. It also creates this strange and problematic dichotomy where the very best companies don't go public, but the mere "pretty good" ones do. That sucks for the broader public, but increasingly they'll have ways to invest privately as well, one suspects as these designations just continue to blur. Also interesting: Solomon's note that "95%" of the work on Goldman's side to help a company go public by writing an S1 can now be done "by AI in minutes". Undoubtedly an exaggeration, but also undoubtedly directionally correct. And, as he notes, it increases the value of the remaining 5%. [FT 🔒]

🤖 Google to Give Businesses AI Tools Whether or Not They Want It – When the news hit yesterday at almost the same time that both Google and Microsoft were tweaking their AI pricing, they were obviously both framed as huge positives for customers. But clearly, they show that, at best, neither company has nailed their business model for the new technology yet. And at worst, they're not having much luck convincing customers to use this technology in meaningful ways. Interestingly, each company is tweaking their model in opposite directions, with Google now bundling AI in Workspace plans (versus being an add-on), while Microsoft is moving to a-la-carte pricing for their AI. As Martin Peers rightly notes, Google's move is "reminiscent of the cable TV business model, where every viewer paid for a package of channels, regardless of what they watched, ensuring that all the channels in the package did well." It also, of course, further obfuscates the AI business and will allow Google to tout how well the business is doing, as customers now have no choice but to eat that cost (beyond moving elsewhere). [Information 🔒]

I Link...

Opinion | Mark Zuckerberg’s Macho Posturing Looks a Lot Like Cowardice

Focus on what the Meta chief does, not what he says.

The New York TimesBy

Zeynep Tufekci points out the ridiculous hypocrisy in Zuckerberg's actions and appearance on The Joe Rogan Podcast. I finally got through the whole (3 hour) thing, and the only thing more ridiculous than his disingenuous outrage against Apple, is the same outrage against Biden – which I suspect is more nuanced than he's suggesting, but still fair – without even mentioning the strong-arm tactics used by Trump – threats of jail! – that have forced Zuckerberg into fealty.

I Note...

• Speaking of, it's not enough for Zuckerberg to bend the knee, kiss the ring, and kick off tech's fealty payments to President-Elect Trump – it's not even enough for him to just go to the inauguration – he has to host a party on the day. What's the world record for kissing ass? We're likely to find out... [Puck 🔒]
  • Tim Cook will be there too, naturally. Likely on the dais with TikTok's CEO so Trump can show off the trophies he has captured. Jeff Bezos may be up there as well. While every other tech leader may merely be in attendance (after refusing to go eight years ago). [Bloomberg 🔒]
  • I feel like the Don Draper-meme, "That's what the money is for!" works both ways here: I mean, of course these guys are going, because that's what the money is for! On the other hand, more in line with Draper's point, don't you pay the money so you don't have to go to the event and get embarrassingly paraded around as a captured creature?
• One more: beyond getting the $1M fealty fee in just under the wire, Microsoft's Satya Nadella and Brad Smith also made the pilgrimage to Mar a Lago to break bread with Donald Trump and JD Vance – and you'll never guess who else dropped in to join (narrator: you will guess). [Semafor]
• Speaking of David Solomon (up top), he also publicly confirmed the notion that Goldman may back out of their partnership on the Apple Card before the deal expires in 2030. Apple is currently talking to Barclays and card issuer Synchrony Financial, it sounds like. [Reuters]
• The last company Hindenburg Research will take down is itself, as Nate Anderson has officially disbanded the firm. No big reason or drama he says, just a desire to make it a chapter in his life and not the whole book, which I appreciate. Quite the run. We'll see who the last of "the last Ponzi cases" end up being... [TechCrunch]
• When I noted the Drake/Kendrick Lamar "diss" track suit (not an actual tracksuit, sadly) seemed over yesterday, I of course meant it was being escalated and elevated – to federal court. [THR]
• One idea to save local journalism? Have AI pay for it! Extremely well-funded AI startups, that is, with OpenAI paying for Axios to expand into four new cities. How long will such deals last? (They never last.) But good for Axios if they're going in eyes wide open here and simply striking when the data needs and deals are hot. [Axios]
  • Meanwhile, Google has struck a deal with the AP to plus their real time information directly into Gemini. [Google]
  • Not to be left out, France's Mistral has partnered with France's version of the AP, Agence France-Presse, on information/news for their French Gemini (but really, ChatGPT) competitor, Le Chat. [TechCrunch]
• Google's share of the search market has dropped below 90% worldwide for the first time in a decade, according to data from Statcounter. Google will undoubtedly dispute such third-party data, but the trend they've been capturing over many years is certainly interesting directionally, if nothing else. But I'm perhaps biased as this was also one of my predictions for 2025. We'll see... [Search Engine Land]

I Quote...

"[Executive orders] are not magical documents. They’re just press releases with nicer stationery."

-- Alan Rozenshtein, a former national security adviser to the Justice Department, talking about the notion (up top) that Trump could issue an EO to stop the TikTok ban. Again, the notion here may be that it simply signals to other bodies to help halt the law.

I Spy...

Apple's current challenges in China are well covered, the chart below just highlights the trend that everyone has known for some time... The question, heading into 2025, is if anything can change the tough equations for Apple?

• An AI partner on the ground for Apple Intelligence is still a work in progress.
• Apple is in sort of a tricky spot with regard to the in-progress AI chip restrictions because it's one point of leverage China has over an American company (Tesla being another, of course).
• And that directly segues into the incoming Trump tariff situation, which could be a quagmire to end all quagmires – especially for Apple, given Elon Musk's elevated position potentially shielding Tesla a bit more.
• I mean, even the 'iPhone Air' is tricky. While affluent Chinese buyers have typically boosted new Apple smartphone designs, will Apple be able to make the device work with a physical SIM tray as will be required in the market?

There's... a lot to worry about.