Marvel, We Have a Superhero Problem
Jeremy Fuster
After a solid opening weekend for The Fantastic Four – certainly for that long-troubled franchise in movie form under Fox – Marvel looked to be putting some lackluster performances of the recent post-Avengers MCU films behind them and were ready to fly high again, leading up to the return of the Avengers in a couple years. Not so fast.
After a $11.7 million second Friday, industry estimates have “Fantastic Four” earning a $40.8 million second weekend, which equates to a 66% drop from its $117.6 million domestic opening. Theatrical sources and rival studios had predicted a second weekend of at least $45 million, which would have keep its drop to 60% or less.
A 66% drop isn't just bad, it's terrible. Yes, even for a summertime superhero movie – as they note, Superman fell "just" 53% in its second weekend after a very similar-sized opening. There's no spinning it, it's just horrible news for Disney/Marvel as it shifts projections down to perhaps just $250M at the domestic box office and maybe $500M worldwide. For a movie that likely cost $300M to make and market, that means a decidedly unprofitable theatrical run (since cinemas and distribution partners take upwards of 50% of that box office).
But it's potentially even a bigger problem for Marvel because it seemed like Kevin Feige had finally righted the ship after a series of experiments to see what might work with the MCU after the franchises clearly peaked, at least when it came to the box office, with that final Avengers film, Endgame, released over six years ago.
First, after the pandemic-era flooding of content (aided by the launch of Disney+), they tried to pull back a bit on volume so that there weren't 10 different MCU stories going on at once across film and television. Then, after a bunch of decidedly mediocre fare, they tried to make the movies actually good again. Sadly, that didn't really help Thunderbolts, which was good, but still underperformed – which I would chalk up to bad/confusing marketing as much as anything else. But again, now it seemed like Marvel may have found their footing, with a movie that was received well by audience and critics and was seemingly marketed well in the form of The Fantastic Four. A $120M opening when when compared to previous movies in that particular franchise did indeed seem fantastic. And now...
So what's going on here? The fact that Marvel isn't alone, with Disney's Pixar division running into some of the same box office issues, as well as other well-received franchise-fare, might suggest a broader and bigger problem. What if – wait for it – people just don't turn out for movies like they once did in theaters anymore?
Shocking, I know, if you just read the trade presses fawning over the box office records – records which almost never mention the fact that when you add one very simple math layer to these equations – inflation – the box office actually remains far, far, far below any peak. And in terms of ticket sales themselves – numbers of butts in seats – those likely peaked around 70 years ago or so. So yeah, that's a problem. And as much as it pains Hollywood to hear it, there's no point is pretending it's not real: they're never going back to those peaks. Because that size audience is never coming back. You need to adapt to the new reality.
That reality is a theatrical run for movies where it makes sense. And even within that subset, different strategies will make sense for different reasons. There are movies that go viral outside of the content on screen, like last year's Anyone But You – and, in a way, the new Naked Gun movie seems to be tapping into that energy thanks to the off-screen real-life romance between stars Liam Neeson and Pamela Anderson. There are movies that go viral because they're actually good and timed well, like Sinners. There are the "traditional" big Hollywood spectacles like Top Gun Maverick – and yes, I would put Apple's F1 in that camp. Movies that sort of demand to be seen on the biggest screens possible – i.e. IMAX.
The superhero movies used to be firmly in that latter camp, but they now run the risk of falling out of it for various reasons as mentioned above. The next Avengers will undoubtedly break the box office as the star-studded spectacle is about to be amped up ever further and there's now a nostalgic component to those films – though I can't help but wonder if this Fantastic Four situation doesn't point to a world in which the Avengers doesn't do quite as well as everyone is expecting now – and the rumored $500M budgets will command.
There's potentially a world in which these superhero movies now open to big business but fall off faster than ever before – as was the case here. Part of the reason why should be obvious: the super fans of such content front-load the box office. That is, anyone who really, really, really wants to see The Fantastic Four will go on opening weekend. Anyone who is just sort of interested will probably wait for it to be on streaming in a couple months. Said another way: if they missed that opening weekend window, you may have lost them until streaming.
That points to a world where either they elongate the theatrical windows once again – which theater owners would love, of course – or they go the opposite way and keep such superhero movies only in theaters for a few weeks to get the money from the super fans and then aim to leverage the marketing spend to send these movies soaring onto their streaming platforms. That latter point is the playbook I've argued that Netflix should be running for their biggest movies – and I believe that they will, eventually.
But for the traditional studios, this is all much harder to swallow, of course. And that short theatrical run would be impossible for the theaters themselves to swallow – see also: their recent reaction to IMAX – even though they now run the risk of movies that open to brisk business and then leave theaters sitting half-full, or worse, after that first weekend. That has long been the reality of the business, but it's more pronounced than ever – and getting worse, clearly.
So everyone can just sit around and die a slow death or try to think outside those traditional boxes. That includes Disney/Marvel with their all-important MCU. At this rate, Fantastic Four is probably done in movie theaters in a couple weeks regardless. Do you want to control that narrative or have it control you?
One more thing: I believe all of the above is correct but the more simple statement must be stated too: perhaps videogame IP is just the new comic book IP.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler