The iPhone Error
Wayne Ma & Qianer Liu
The iPhone Air was always going to be a bit of a risk for Apple. Yes, it looks great and yes it feels great in hand, but it didn't seem like those two elements would be enough to overcome the fact that it's very much an "in-between" iPhone. That is, it exists squarely in the middle of the two actually most important elements of the device: it's neither the best iPhone or the least expensive iPhone. And sure enough:
Apple is delaying the release of next year’s version of the iPhone Air, its thinnest smartphone, after the first model sold below expectations, according to three people involved in the project.
Although the length of the delay remains uncertain, the product won’t be released in fall 2026 as previously planned, they said. Apple has already sharply scaled back production of the first version, according to multiple people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The writing was on the wall here from the get-go, when early shipping time checks made it seem like the device was still widely available after launch. This seemingly indicated that either Apple produced too many or demand wasn't there – or both.1
It will be interesting if Apple attempts to push back on this report at all – perhaps on background to other more friendly publications? Maybe there will be some casual comment that the device was never meant to be on a yearly cadence? They could even point to the fact that it was called the 'iPhone Air' and not the 'iPhone 17 Air' – which led to immediate speculation that it wouldn't be on a yearly release cycle. As I wrote after the unveiling:
The worst kept secret in Cupertino (this year) is here: iPhone Air. Notably, it's not 'iPhone 17 Air', just 'iPhone Air' which stands out in the line up with iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. And it leads to the obvious question if Apple views this as a one-off design, perhaps if it doesn't sell well? That seems unlikely, so perhaps they'd just do an 'iPhone Air 2' next year? But that would be a bit awkward and confusing if they stick with the standard naming schemes for the other iPhones – i.e. do I buy an iPhone 18, an iPhone 18 Pro, or an iPhone Air 2 next year? Then again, next year should also see the 'iPhone Fold' introduced, so perhaps we're slowly moving away from the bigger numbers, which were always untenable at some point. Were we really going to get an 'iPhone 37' in 2045?
Yeah, if nothing else, the naming scheme gives them some flexibility here...
Regardless, it's hard to combat this from Ma and Liu's report:
Foxconn, one of two companies that assembles the iPhone Air for Apple, has dismantled all but one and a half of its production lines for the first version and expects to halt all production by the end of the month, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. Luxshare, the other company that assembles the device, halted all production at the end of October, according to people with direct knowledge of the developments. In contrast, Foxconn and Luxshare have dedicated dozens of production lines to top-selling models like the iPhone 17 Pro.
As the report notes, this would be yet another "other" version of the iPhone that Apple has failed to make work in the market. This dates back to the iPhone 5c days – Jony Ive's super colorful iPhones – and continued through the iPhone mini. Consumers, it seems, really may just want either the "best" or the "affordable" when it comes to the device. But Apple isn't giving up all hope, it seems:
Apple has stopped short of canceling the next iPhone Air, internally code-named V62, and some Apple engineers and manufacturing partners are still working on it, the people said. It’s possible the product is undergoing a significant redesign, and one person said Apple could still release the second-generation iPhone Air as soon as spring 2027 alongside the standard iPhone 18 and budget-friendly 18e. Apple is permanently shaking up its annual iPhone release schedule so that it debuts cheaper models in the spring and more expensive models in the fall.
Of course, this also shouldn't be too surprising as much of the work on the 'iPhone Air 2' is presumably already locked and loaded in order to have it ready for what would have been a Fall 2026 release. Certainly, Apple can postpone that release, as now seems to be the case, but cancelling it would be a waste of a lot of work. Sunk cost fallacy and all that, but it probably makes sense to give it at least one more go? Especially if, just as was the case with the MacBook Air lineup originally,2 Apple intends the new model as a "testing ground" of sorts for new designs and technologies that will eventually come to the broader lineup...
Further, staggering the release to be "off-cycle" might make a lot of sense (and more sense than shifting the "regular" iPhone to the Spring – see update below). The one surprise to me about the iPhone Air at launch was that it was actually more of an 'iPhone Pro' model than a 'standard' iPhone model. This would seemingly set it up well to sit alongside the iPhone 'e' models – the actual "cheapest" iPhone – in the Spring.
So next year, you could have this:
Fall 2026:
- iPhone 18 ("regular" – affordable)
- iPhone 18 Pro ("pro" – best)
Spring 2027:
- iPhone 18e ("regular" – cheapest)
- iPhone Air 2 ("pro" – thinnest)
The wild card here, of course, is the 'iPhone Fold' – yes, yet another attempt at a new iPhone model. The disappointing sales of the iPhone Air may at least give Apple some pause as to how they position the device, but it too is undoubtedly full-steam ahead right now leading up to the Fall 2026 release. And unlike the Air, the Fold shouldn't be "in-between" but rather, it should be more extreme when it comes to price, likely $1,999 or more to start, pushing the iPhone Pro models into the middle in that regard.
But the dual-screen and entirely new form-factor should be enough to overcome any challenges of selling it versus the iPhone Pro lineup. There, the issue will be price: are people willing to pay as much for an iPhone as they pay for a high-end MacBook Pro? Perhaps double what they pay for a MacBook Air? I mean, probably, presuming it's good! But the foldable market to date is still very much nascent, so that will fall to Apple's marketing team. Then again, marketing clearly hasn't worked with these other new iPhones in the past, so... We'll see!
Update: In a follow-up report, Ma and Liu specifically note that Apple is thinking about adding a second camera to the would-be second interation of the iPhone Air.
While it's not clear that they could do the work needed in time to hit the Spring 2027 timetable above, I'm more surprised by the continued reporting that Apple is aiming to use the Spring timeframe for the "regular" iPhone 18 as well. That would mean Fall of 2026 would only see the iPhone Pro models as well as the iPhone Fold – two clearly premium and thus, expensive, offerings.
I like my staggered pricing options timetable strategy a lot more!
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
1 There were then some early indications of strong demand for the model in China, but that may have just been due to the fact that it was delayed as they figured out the SIM-free carrier situation. ↩
2 That original MacBook Air, despite the famous and iconic Steve Jobs envelope unveil, was also not a huge hit out of the gate. But that was also largely because it was expensive and under-powered... ↩