The 3 iPhone Problem
Mark Gurman
In recent years, iPhone sales haven't stalled, but they're stagnant. Some of it is simply market saturation. But part of it is also because there haven't been big new reasons to upgrade your already-probably-fast-enough device. Last year, Apple tried to angle AI as one of those reasons and well... yeah, whoops. But the reality is that a big reason why people upgrade is simply when a device looks new. And the iPhone has looked like, well, an iPhone for a number of years now.
That's going to change starting this year. And next year. And the year after. We already knew at a high level from various leaks, but Mark Gurman has a few more details about 2025's 'iPhone Air', 2026's 'iPhone Fold', and 2027 'iPhone XX' (yes, I'm making these names up, but you can certainly see the first two being used – the last one sounds a little too porny, perhaps).
Given how close we are to the 'Air', pretty much everything seems known about it. From how thin it is likely to be, to the Apple-made modem undoubtedly inside. There's even already talk of battery life issues due to said thinness. But while that device will undoubtedly look (and feel) great from the side, from the front and back, it won't look all that different. In fact, the iPhone 17 Pro models will probably look more different given the new 'camera bar' area – and perhaps the new orange-ish hue! Anyway, cramming everything into the svelte 'Air' undoubtedly sets the stage for what's next:
The game changer arrives in 2026: Apple’s first foldable iPhone. Code-named V68, it looks like Samsung Electronics Co.’s book-style foldables that open into a small tablet. It’s slated to feature five cameras (one on the front, one on the inside and two on the back) and — like the iPhone Air — will lack a SIM-card slot. It also will use Touch ID instead of Face ID, making it a bit of a throwback in that respect. But I still think it will be hugely popular with Apple’s legion of consumers who are willing to spend whatever to get the latest and greatest.
I wrote about this topic last year when I got the new Pixel Fold – technically and weirdly named the 'Pixel 9 Pro Fold' – in a post titled 'The Pixel Fold Makes the iPhone Look Old'. It's a form-factor that finally works. It's not perfect – see: the crease – but it has clearly gotten a lot better since Samsung first started going down the foldable path several years ago (with some humorously disastrous results). The segment feels refined enough for Apple to enter and perfect it – you know, their standard playbook.
Apple recently made a change to the screen technology in its foldable iPhone. The original plan was to rely on what are known as on-cell touch sensors, a different approach than current iPhones use. But they can create air gaps between the screen and its cover — and make the unfolded display’s crease look more pronounced. I’m told that Apple is now pivoting to an in-cell touch screen, something closer to what’s already in the iPhone. That should help make the crease less obvious and improve touch accuracy.
It will be all about that crease (and hinge). The just-unveiled Pixel 10 Pro Fold seemingly fixed the dust/waterproof issue, but presumably the crease remains. It's not awful, but it's certainly noticeable after extended use (it starts out life in the box unfolded, with no crease).
Then comes 2027, when Apple celebrates its smartphone’s 20th birthday with a curved-glass “iPhone 20.” This design will finally break from the squared-off slab we’ve lived with since 2020 and move to an approach with curved glass edges all around. It should fit nicely with the new Liquid Glass-based interface for iOS and other operating systems due to be released next month.
Curved glasses edges also aren't exactly new – again, Samsung and others have been doing them for a while – but also not yet perfected. A single sheet of glass covering an end-to-end screen – without cut-outs or bezels – has always been the ultimate end state for the iPhone form-factor. And Apple is apparently close.
Naturally, in my head while reading all this, I'm already planning my own personal upgrade cycle. I think it will look like this:
2025: iPhone 17 Pro Max
2026: iPhone Fold
2027: iPhone Fold 2?
While I'll undoubtedly be tempted by the 'iPhone Air', I suspect the fact that it's not the top-of-the-line fastest iPhone, and the aforementioned potential battery issues will keep me in the Pro (Max) camp for another year. Plus, if the orange color or more copper-y, I'll definitely be on board.
Next, the 'iPhone Fold' presents an interesting dilemma here. Perhaps even larger – literally – than the one which occurred when Apple first shifted to the massive screen sizes with the 'Plus' and later 'Max' models. Assuming you buy and fall in love with the 'Fold' are you really going to be able to "downgrade" to the 'iPhone XX'? You'd have to start using a single screen – albeit one edge-to-edge – again, like an animal. Hard to see how you can do that unless you feel like the 'Fold' is too bulky, or if the unfolded inner screen is just overkill.
But I'm trying to play this out in my head and I think there's a world in which I skip that 'iPhone XX'. Because as crazy as I am about such things, I'm not going to carry around two phones.
I suppose it's possible that Apple doesn't plan to upgrade the 'Fold' every year? But that seems highly unlikely unless it's a complete flop, sales-wise. Regardless, it's still just hard to see how you could move from the foldable form-factor back to a single screen after using it for a year.
Anyway, what a problem to have! Actual choice that requires actual thought in the iPhone ecosystem.