10 Big Predictions for 2026

Here we are again, the final day of the year. Just like last year, I thought I'd use the countdown to 2026 to jot down some predictions. Last year, I thought most of my predictions wouldn't happen, but actually many ended up being at least partially correct, so I'll go back to the Google days and take that to mean my OKRs weren't ambitious enough. I'll try to aim a bit higher/harder this year...

1. The 'iPhone Fold' is a big hit at launch – While it may not seem like a stretch to say that an Apple product will be a hit, actually Apple has a pretty poor track record when it comes to first iterations of devices in recent years – see: iPhone Air, Vision Pro, even the Apple Watch wasn't a blockbuster out of the gate.¹ But I think the iPhone Fold could break that trend and not just because it's Apple's take on a category which is growing, though not yet massive in "foldables". I suspect Apple's entry will be a bit different than what others have been doing. It will be Apple's first phone that's not just a rectangular slab – and it may not even be a rectangle at all, with a rumored 4:3 ratio?! In our world of ever-growing screen sizes, that could be a welcomed change. And when unfolded, it could be more akin to an iPad mini, a device I've long loved but hasn't caught on in the way the regular iPads have. Would it run iOS? iPadOS? Some sort of new hybrid? And what if Apple has a special, new accessory built for it? Given that it's likely to launch towards the end of the year, we won't have a ton of sales data on the device by year end (and it may be constrained anyway), but I'm guessing the buzz will be huge – despite the huge price tag of $2,000+...
2. Troubles at TikTok – While the deal to sell the US entity to a group of investors has been cleared by the company, China still has not signed off. You'd think ByteDance wouldn't push forward without such assurances but, well, geopolitics are complicated, especially with the Trump administration. Still, let's assume the (comically cheap) deal gets done. What happens next? My bet is that things are fine for a bit, but then issues start to creep in at the edges. The strange deal structure with profits going back to the parent company may complicate any future deal structures and that may make it hard to keep employees around long term. That may include the current US leadership, as they're now basically owned by a hybrid of private equity, a decidedly non-US fund, and Oracle. I'm also not sure that alleviates the political pressure and there will be whispers of China still being involved behind-the-scenes. Can YouTube and Instagram take advantage of such chaos? We'll see...
3. No major AI IPOs happen in the US – While things are seemingly gangbusters in the Asian stock markets right now and there's a lot of talk about the big US players prepping for IPOs in 2026, I would bet none end up actually going out before the clock strikes 2027. All eyes, as always, are on OpenAI, but I would bet they're still tapping the private capital wells – and will become the first $1T private company (consider it a sub-prediction, which they're not far from already – but can they beat SpaceX to this punch, maybe if SpaceX actually does go public?). Anthropic could push down on the gas to try to beat OpenAI out of the gates, putting more pressure on their rival, but I also think they'll run a bit longer in the private markets. There might be smaller players that try to get out, maybe through reverse mergers or whatnot, but I don't think we get the blockbuster one. A lot of this is macro-dependent of course, and it just feels like it will be more turbulent in 2026...
4. Meta and Microsoft reboot their AI efforts – again – When Microsoft pulled off the first "hackquisition" in the form of their Inflection deal, it was clear Satya Nadella felt it was a needed gamble to hedge against their OpenAI bet, which became problematic after "The Blip". In March, we'll hit the two year anniversary of that deal and Mustafa Suleyman being charged with getting Microsoft some sort of traction in AI. With the new OpenAI arrangement giving Microsoft more flexibility, Nadella – now in "founder mode" – is clearly going to want to see some results, fast. I don't see that happening so... do they make another big hackqusition? Do something else to try to vault into the race? Meanwhile, Meta obviously just made one – a second one – to try to catch up in AI after dropping the ball with Llama. I remain skeptical that they can just buy their way back in. And if it's not working, how fast does Mark Zuckerberg act yet again? Another deal?...
5. Someone buys Perplexity – Perhaps related to the above, I could see Meta or Microsoft making a move, though I think Samsung is the most likely candidate given their partnership/integration. I no longer think it will be Apple, or they would have done it already. Nor do I think Google will come knocking after the Chrome stunt. NVIDIA could be a wild card, if they decide they want to combat their partners continually building their own chips by more directly operating at the AI software level... Regardless, we may be on the verge of a wave of AI players being scooped up as the state of the art keeps shifting...
6. An online betting/gambling reckoning – I think the biggest issues may surface with the proliferation of sports gambling online, but the new "prediction markets" could be the factor that pushes the looming problems over the edge. If Polymarket and Kalshi get into a DraftKings vs. FanDuel all-out marketing war trying to stake their claims, we could see fallout even faster...
7. Netflix & Warner Bros fend off Paramount Skydance but don't close deal – Pretty self-explanatory. I think Netflix and Warner Bros will be able to fend off the hostile takeover attempt by Paramount Skydance, but I also think there will be major regulatory pressure that keeps the deal from actually closing in the Q3 2026 timeframe. In fact, I'd take 2026 off the table entirely as there are so many different groups in both Hollywood and politics (not to mention Europe) that will clearly oppose the deal as hard and as loud as they can. Will they be able to get it done in 2027? I think a lot of it will depend on YouTube. If their domination of video continues and spreads further into the living room (and into more professional content), it should eventually get the deal done...
8. A box office boom, but... – Mandalorian (and Grogu), Spider-Man, Avengers, Hunger Games, Jumanji, Toy Story, Shrek, Mario, Minions, Moana, Michael Jackson, Narnia, Odyssey, Dune, Spielberg back with aliens – even if all of them don't hit (Supergirl?), enough of them will to boost the box office results for 2026, perhaps even past the pre-pandemic levels finally (not counting for inflation, because Hollywood ridiculously never seems to...). Everyone will trumpet the return of Hollywood, and yet it won't change any of the longer-term trends and issues with the industry. Of course, we won't be able to see that fully until 2027 and beyond...
9. Tesla stalls – Anything involving Elon Musk is always a tricky prediction because what buoys his empire, at least from a stock/valuation-perspective – is less about fundamentals and more about I don't know, vibes, I guess. Future promises? While his timelines are almost always off, he's always been able to paint new pictures of promises even further off, but the key is also doing incredible things from time to time. 2026 could be a challenge with such narratives if actual car sales keep falling and the robotaxi fleet can't scale to meet Waymo in market. Proclamations about Optimus will continue, but what will we actually see next year? Does the narrative shift to merging xAI into the empire? Something with SpaceX as it gears up to go public? What is left in the bag?...
10. Tech starts to turn on Trump – This one is inevitable, it's just a matter of timing. Once we pass the mid-terms, will that be enough? It depends on those outcomes, I suppose. It could be until 2027 when the lame-duck status is secured (one presumes!) that we all start to experience major whiplash from how fast tech starts to backtrack from their Trump-friendly positions and rhetoric. No more golden trinkets. No more revenue shares. No more stakes in companies. And just a general sense of "we were only playing the game on the field"...

10 Big Predictions for 2025

One of which may actually happen…

SpyglassM.G. Siegler

2025 Predictions Revisited

As we head into 2026, a look back at 2025... 🔮

SpyglassM.G. Siegler

¹ I also have a "one more thing" prediction that's carrying over from last year, because the device was delayed, that the 'HomePad' won't be a big hit out of the gate... ↩