Dispatch 033: Streaming Saves Santa
As we barrel towards the holidays, we were coaxed into watching Red One on Prime Video the other night. Not great. But it didn't matter, as tens of millions of others were enticed as well. Why? In no small part because it was a big, theatrical release with big stars that was now available for "free" in the home. The move paid off for Amazon – optically, if not actually, since the movie basically bombed at the box office. Still, it's the right general strategy going forward – not for every movie, but for certain releases – which Netflix will realize sooner or later.
M.G. Siegler
I Think...
😎 Accelerating the Future: AI, Mixed Reality and the Metaverse – While reading this state of Meta Reality Labs as we exit 2024 and enter 2025 by Andrew Bosworth, I just kept thinking it was almost a "this is what Apple should be doing" post. We've already covered the "Orion" angle, which is a long ways off, so we'll see. But even just "AI Glasses" as Boz is now referring to them, seems like a quick, relatively easy, and obvious way to work towards that without, you know, requiring a $3,500 headset. And the notion that they could be the first truly native AI hardware is compelling. This should be a next year thing, not a 2027 thing. Meanwhile, in headsets, a $300 device that you can actually wear around the house can also perhaps help more on the other end of the spectrum because the sales will be far greater than a device which is an order of magnitude expensive. The fact that James Cameron is now working to make content for the device also is seemingly a testament to that. The reference to Steve Jobs himself seeing the future at Xerox PARC all those years ago and tying it back to the Orion experience is just the kicker. We'll see, but there is a bit of a feeling of anagnorisis around Apple right now with regard to both AI and XR. I'm not saying they're BlackBerry – I mean, they're about to become the first $4T company! – but there's some real risk around the ever sought after What's Next™. [Meta]
🧱 Lego Has an IP Problem – Look, not to get too "back in my day" here, but I think the author does have a point about just how far Lego has shifted towards these IP deals. Walk into any Lego Store around the world now and it's all Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, Ghostbusters, etc. And yeah, the Lego set that is a recreation of the Marvel logo seems oh just a bit brand-y. Wild that the first partnership was with Disney (on a wooden figure, no less) back in 1950 but then they waited 49 years to do another partnership, with The Phantom Menace in 1999. Now of the 45 themes that Lego offers, 25 are licensed from elsewhere. Beyond the risk of pigeon-holing kids' imaginations into simply re-creating movie scenes versus "free play" – give me "Town" or "Castle" or "Space" any day – it feels like a big risk if the IP rights holders end up having more power over the company's sales than the company does, obviously. [Fast Company]
🍪 Microsoft Acquires Twice as Many Nvidia AI Chips as Tech Rivals – Some big numbers from the analysts at Omdia which believes Microsoft bought 485,000 "Hopper" chips last year – yes, more than double Meta at 224,000 (while higher on the list, ByteDance and Tenecent had to buy other, less powerful NVIDIA chips due to trade/export restrictions). Of course, Microsoft is "eating for two" as it were – not only OpenAI, but they're own AI aspirations as well. Omdia also believes Google, Meta, and Amazon all deployed over 1M of their own chips this year on top of their still massive NVIDIA spend (which also makes sense since they are all trying to train new models on their own chips – which Google says they've done with the new 'Trillium' TPUs – to diversify/hedge, if nothing else). Microsoft, it seems, is well behind on such internal AI chip efforts. Perhaps a new partner would help – a partner badly in need of help... What about Apple? The estimated server CapEx this year came in... tied for 10th place, with a startup, CoreWeave, which exists to buy and rent out NVIDIA chips. Wall Street appreciates some level of discipline here, but that's a bit ridiculous for... the most valuable company in the world. They're clearly working to change that – though not with NVIDIA. Might a new deal also be needed there? [FT 🔒]
💰 Why Does OpenAI Need So Much Money? – I'm not really sure what triggered this story (and the related the status update on the move to a for-profit) as there's seemingly nothing new, maybe just a year-end catch up on the startup everyone wants to know about? Regardless, I find the angle here a bit misleading in that they only talk about how much OpenAI will spend in the next several years and completely downplay how much money they're actually making. Granted, it's all just projections – and to say there are a number of factors that could alter it in good and bad ways would be an understatement – but while OpenAI may indeed spend $37.5B a year by 2029, they're also projecting revenue of $100B by then, which is never mentioned. A few months ago, I did some napkin math to determine (based on the same leaked financials) that they would probably need to raise another $25B or so to get to profitability from here. It's probably and under-estimate given again, all those variables and competition. But if the market holds, it seems like OpenAI could do it – I mean, Databricks just raised a $10B round (see: below). Obviously a lot does hinge on that shift to a for-profit. But they seem confident enough in that or they probably wouldn't have baked it into the last round docs. And if/when that conversion happens, we may see a new lineup of massive money piles looking to bet big. Maybe even a newly actual equity-holding Microsoft once again, freed from their AGI prenup. With OpenAI having declared "AGI". Whatever that means... [NYT]
I Wrote...
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
I Link...
- I don't know how practical the NVIDIA 'Jetson Orin Nano' AI dev kit thing is, but it sure is a clever idea to go after some low-end interest in AI – and the Jensen Huang literal home video is perfect. 67 TOPs, $249. [Verge]
- Disney rarely releases films outside of their own IP, but they're making an exception for Bluey the BBC-financed, Australian-created massive show, which is already licensed by Disney+. The film would hit in 2027 and creator Joe Brumm is stepping back from the show to work on it. You may recall another time Disney released IP outside of their house: Pixar. [NYT]
- Speaking of Meta's "AI Glasses" (up top), the company is starting to roll out the "live AI" features to the Ray Ban Meta glasses in beta. [TechCrunch]
- Comcast is pushing Peacock into the RSN game, as they'll start upselling a package of the ones they already own, but also seem open to being a hub for all of them – following/battling ESPN and Amazon in that world. [The Desk]
- Google's new 'Whisk' AI feature to remix images seems like an easy, fun way to use AI images capabilities. If only we could figure out where it is. [Verge]
- In a similar vein, Midjourney now lets you create "moodboards" to sort of set a vibe for the AI images you wish to create. [VentureBeat]
- Speaking of Lego (up top) their new 'Brick Life' game looks sort of like a cute Grand Theft Auto meets The Sims. The key, for Epic, is trying to ease the domination of the 'Battle Royale' format, to prove Fortnite is an actual multiverse. Disney will want that too, lest we have to resort to hunting down Mickey Mouse. [Verge]
- Good to see Apple pick up Silo for season 3 – and 4, as they cutely tease – to give the show runway for a proper arc. One massive downside of the streaming boom has been so many shows getting picked up only to be cancelled quickly. It makes one not want to even commit in the first place. With the news, I'm finally starting Silo... Tim Cook's inbox is saved. [THR]
- I had wondered why Nicholas Cage was playing John Madden and not Al Davis in a new Madden biopic in the works – well it may be because Christian Bale is playing Davis?! [The InSneider]
- Tyler Denk, the co-founder of Beehiiv pulls zero punches and, as is his way, gives zero fucks in this post going after his rival Substack, specifically calling out their use of dark patterns. [Big Desk Energy]
- To be fair to Substack, they are at least finally trying to move beyond their cookie-cutter approach to design and branding for publishers, partnering with one of their most successful publications, The Free Press, on some sort of more bespoke premium branding offering. [On Subtack]
- A win for Intel, albeit a small one in the form of a non-AI-training GPU, thanks to their well-received Arc B580. It's something and needed! [Verge]
- Look, I'm as excited for James Gunn's Superman as anyone else, but do we really need a teaser trailer for a teaser trailer? Which itself is just a teaser of the actual trailer? Which itself is a teaser of the actual movie? [YouTube]
- In terms of actual trailers, Steven Soderbergh's Black Bag looks promising. Sort of a darker Mr. & Mrs. Smith with Michael Fassbender continuing his secret agent/assassin kick of late. Great supporting cast, including one former James Bond and one potential future one... [THR]
- The $6B+ mega round for OpenAI was a record that lasted... not even three months. No, it wasn't xAI – they came close – it was Databricks, which smashed through the number with a $10B round. A 'Series J' for 'Jesus Christ just go public already'. I kid, I kid. But also... [NYT]
I Quote...
"We really don’t want people to use in-app purchase."
-- Riley Testut, the creator of the (excellent) Delta retro game emulation app on a change in the new update to his app. For his latest trick, he's testing Apple's fences when it comes to the "External Purchase Link Entitlement" that Apple clearly begrudgingly unveiled under threat of fines in the EU.
But this is a worldwide change, so it's now live in the US App Store as well, and Testut has made Apple's in-app purchases 3x the price versus if you use their link (which links out to Patreon). To be clear, Apple still gets a 27% cut of those Patreon purchases made from the link (and so most aren't using it), but Delta will have a lot more flexibility with regard to refunds, customer support, etc.
I'm sort of surprised Apple allowed such a brazen middle finger to their policies. But what else were the gonna do? If they don't allow it through, it's yet another massive PR headache for them. I mean, what they really should do is cut the made-out-of-thin-air App Store fees for our modern world. But, you know, Services.
I Spy...
Is this what the new backside design of the iPhone 17 Pro will look like? Some leakers with "decent track records" are saying... Honestly, I think this looks a lot better than the current ever-growing-square area design as it's obviously more symmetrical (and yes, a bit Google Pixel-y – though oddly the Pixel Fold features the square design). Though it still won't allow an iPhone to lay flat on its back, of course. How about a cool new fully magnetic (MagSafe) case to go along with it?
Wait, not so fast... the square may remain, says another leaker (with a more mixed track record). Their interpretation is a sort of strange-looking two-toned back due to different materials? Clearly, the one above looks better. But most iPhones are housed in cases anyway. For now, the leakers can fight about it on Weibo.
