Apple Analysts Fight to Reclaim the Vaporware Throne
Joe Rossignol
You can almost hear the analysts chomping at the bit. "That's not vaporware. That's vaporware." There's a lot going on here:
Yesterday, analyst Jeff Pu said Apple's first two foldable devices will enter mass production in the second half of 2026. Today, he provided some additional details about these devices, which are expected to launch in 2026 or 2027.
In a research note with investment firm GF Securities, Pu said the two devices will include a foldable iPhone with a 7.8-inch inner display, along with a larger foldable device with an 18.8-inch display. He described the larger foldable as a MacBook-iPad hybrid, and he believes that the device will likely run macOS, rather than iPadOS.
First, I'm going to go ahead and guess that there's no way Apple releases two such devices next year. This isn't based on "industry checks" it's based on a check of my brain. For Apple to get just one of these foldables launched next year, a lot still has to go right, one imagines. That includes on both the hardware and software side of the house. And with this type of device in particular, quality and stress tests are going to be critical. As I wrote the other day, it's starting to feel like the stars are aligning to see Apple's foldable iPhone next year, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it was pushed out a year if any number of elements are even just ever-so-slightly off.
That's not to say that Apple isn't working, internally, on two separate devices. There's certainly enough smoke around these two – and perhaps even more, such as a "flipable" iPhone. And there probably has been a debate within Apple, just as there has been externally, about what form-factor Apple should go with here – and certainly what they should go with first, in order to be successful. I imagine that such a debate has been settled internally by now, and I suspect that device is a foldable iPhone. But again, that's just sort of a gut feeling based around the various reporting and my own usage of such devices from others.
That said, I did originally think a foldable iPad might be a better entry point for Apple because it's slightly lower-stakes than the iPhone. But there's also an easy way to bridge these two worlds and ideas: where a foldable iPhone becomes a foldable iPad. If the current rumored screen specs (usually more reliable than many other rumored specs) are to be believed, we'd essentially have a relatively small screen iPhone that opens up into something close to the size of an iPad mini.
I'll repeat my idea from the other day since it was in a post for members of The Inner Ring. Yeah, it's probably not gonna happen, but how fun would this be?
Lastly, while there's been some talk – quite a bit, actually – that the iPhone Fold would actually be a "flip"-style phone, a "fold" seemingly makes more sense, at least to start. As Kuo notes, the 5.5" outer display could open up to a 7.8-inch internal one when unfolded. that would be just a bit smaller than an iPad mini screen (8.3-inches). And that leads to the next logical question: if such a theoretical device might run iOS on the outside screen but open up to run iPadOS?
My guess would be no, but that's no fun. How awesome would this reveal be?
"An iPhone. An iPad. An iPhone. An iPad. Are you getting it yet? These are not two separate devices. These are one device. And we're calling it the iPhone Fold."
Anyway, back to Pu's other foldable he thinks is coming in 2026 (which is not coming in 2026). Even if Apple could figure out a way to create an 18.8" foldable device, how much do we think that would cost? The 13" iPad Pro starts at $1,299. My guess is that the 'iPhone Fold' – again, with a 7.8" screen – will cost at least $1,999 to start. And quite likely more than that. An 18.8" foldable device would undoubtedly be at least $2,999 and probably a lot more than that. Perhaps even beyond the Vision Pro's $3,499 range. And what's the market for such a device?
Yes, many Macs are above that price range, but that's mainly for professionals. Are professionals going to use a first-generation foldable touchscreen? Will it feature a fully touch-based keyboard when folded? I mean, eventually, sure. But not in 2026.
Again, I'm not saying Apple isn't playing around with such a device internally, I just think there's no way it comes to market next year. And probably not 2027 either.
The fact that he thinks such a device would run macOS just makes this even more ridiculous. So it's a new touch-based version of macOS, presumably. And yes, I'm guessing Apple has prototype versions of such software, but these things take time. And my guess would be they don't introduce that on some science fiction hybrid device.
But certainly not in 2026.
One more thing: remember when we were going to get a foldable iPad with a carbon fiber kickstand – lol – in 2024? To be fair, that was Ming-Chi Kuo with that silly prediction – but he "positive" that was coming. Unclear if that was more or less positive than he was that a foldable iPhone was launching in 2023...
M.G. Siegler