The TikTok Gameshow
To me, the strangest part of TikTok's current state of limbo isn't so much that Apple nor Google have put the app back in their app stores – they're following the letter of the law, not the promise of not enforcing the law – it's that President Trump hasn't lashed out at Apple and/or Google for not allowing the app back into the app stores. "Why aren't you following my executive order, Tim Apple?" – that kind of thing. That suggests... something.
Here's John Gruber's read on the situation:
I’m not saying this is a backroom plot between the administration and these companies, but I’m not saying it isn’t a backroom agreement either. Trump isn’t complaining about Apple and Google not getting on board. And neither Apple nor Google seem worried about Trump’s wrath for not following Oracle and Akamai’s leads. The goal of the legislation isn’t to pull the plug on TikTok for Americans—it’s to pressure ByteDance (and really, their bosses in the Chinese Communist Party) into selling the app. Instantly banning TikTok’s US operations resulted in instant and vociferous outrage from TikTok users—the pressure turned out not to be on ByteDance and the CCP, it was on the US government to give people back their beloved TikTok. So I think everyone on the US side is looking at the current detente—TikTok being available to existing users through existing copies of the app, but not being available in app stores—as a way to turn the pressure up only on ByteDance. Slowly strangle TikTok over a period of months, rather than behead it overnight.
Obviously, talks are happening behind-the-scenes right now on a deal. It's not just that Trump has confirmed this in so much as he won't shut up about it. He's even now casually confirming bidders – welcome back to the table, Microsoft. (As predicted.) Oracle? Not talking to them – except, you know, on stage, in front of the media – about doing the deal. Elon? Tune in to find out! As is his wont, Trump is turning this process into a gameshow. And he's using his powers as producer to ratchet up and down the tension as needed to get the best outcome.1
That might not mean Trump is explicitly telling Apple and Google not to allow TikTok back into the app stores, but it might mean that he's not particularly upset about having that point of leverage while easing some pressure from the American user base. It is a bit strange that TikTok and/or ByteDance isn't complaining about this element,2 especially since it must be destroying their growth numbers. But perhaps they're okay with this detente for now, while they see how it plays out. Maybe both are resigned to sell at this point? They just need that sign-off from China.
These are all just guesses, of course. But they certainly don't seem like outlandish ones!
So here's another: ByteDance ends up selling a portion of their position in the worldwide operations of TikTok to a consortium led by Oracle, with Microsoft and Elon Musk participating in the deal. Current ByteDance investors, many of which are American, get a large stake in this entity as well, which gives US entities majority control while ByteDance maintains a minority position. China signs off on this and curiously, some tariffs are eased around the same time. The US government doesn't get half of the US players stake, but the Treasury is assigned a small piece to participate in the upside of the deal. TikTok management remains in place to operate the new entity which resides on Oracle's servers, with an assist from Microsoft's cloud as well. The new algorithm is put in place by Microsoft, with an assist from xAI.
One more thing: a hiccup in my above scenario is if there's either some sort of security issue and/or major bug that TikTok needs to fix before a deal is done. What happens then? Since the app can't be updated without being back in the store, does Apple and/or Google grant a one-time update exemption in the name of security? What if, say, the iOS 18.3.1 update bricks the app for some reason? Maybe it's moot if a deal really is done within the next month – it undoubtedly won't close that quickly, let alone be implemented with a new algorithm for TikTok, etc but perhaps that would be enough to appease the law, thus allowing the app back in stores.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
1 Might that include getting the US government a taste of the deal? Why not!
2 He's another wild card: what if it's TikTok that hasn't tried to put the app back in the app stores as some sort of leverage on their end, without destroying the service?