Inklings #016 📧
Sending a Sunday edition as it's WWDC Eve – more thoughts on that, tomorrow – and I've been on the road. A lot below, starting with some thoughts on the latest wave of "AI PCs" and if any consumer might actually be enticed by these...
M.G. Siegler
Thoughts On...
🚪 S&P 500 Holds the Door – A genuine surprise as it seemed inevitable that the index would follow the NASDAQ 100 and FTSE Russell in allowing for near-immediate inclusion of new entrants. Instead, those hoping to join the S&P 500 will still have to wait at least a year, which has always felt like a far more sane situation given how much automatic buying (and subsequent rebalancing) is tied to these indices. This obviously would have boosted SpaceX (and perhaps soon, Anthropic and OpenAI) while also dinging their Big Tech brethren (including, of course, Tesla). But the real losers would have been those companies more on the fringe of such lists, which would have been booted as a result, thus hurting their own stocks immensely. Again, it's just all mostly automated, so better to do such things in a orderly manner, no? Well, not for NASDAQ and FTSE, it seems! One more thing: there are also profitability rules around inclusion in the S&P 500 – and SpaceX would currently run afoul of those, with xAI and their new AI push putting the company in the red. Of course, they were profitable before that deal, so we'll see how long it takes to get back there. This, obviously, would be an issue for OpenAI and perhaps Anthropic as well! [Bloomberg 🔒]
💻 ‘Surface Laptop Ultra’ Hands-On — It looks nice, in that it looks pretty much exactly like a MacBook Pro, though hard to blame Microsoft too much here as it’s 2026 and laptop design pretty much is what it is at this point, and Apple set that standard long ago. Well, except for the touch-screen element, which this will have, and the MacBook Pro doesn’t — yet. That plus the big AI specs comes at a cost — quite literally, which we don’t know yet but will undoubtedly be many thousands due to the RAM (128GB) alone — “I was surprised by the weight” and “hefty” are not two things you want to hear about a late 2026 laptop. And while I would say that most such developers will probably use this machine stationary, that begs the question of why not just get the undoubtedly more powerful (thanks to the power requirements) and perhaps cheaper (thanks to no screen) ‘Surface RTX Spark Dev Box’ (rolls right off the tongue)? I’m reminded a bit of the Chromebook Pixel here, which was also nice, but hardware-wise proved to be overkill, leading to a price-point that led to it not really selling. Will the local AI capabilities be enough? Still feels early for that… Ultimately, I wouldn’t be shocked if zero MacBook Pro users switch over. If nothing else, there’s the whole Windows element this device still has to overcome. Also, how awkward for Copilot+ PCs — are these new RTX-powered machines going to be Copilot++ PCs? [Verge]
🗣️ Microsoft’s ‘Project Solara’ — Speaking of Windows… sort of wild on the surface (not Surface) that Microsoft’s AI devices initiative will be built on top of Android. But also not that surprising given that Windows is 40 years old and simply not built for such things from name on down. The focal point will clearly be the cloud, which will allow a sort of orchestra of devices to work with one-another — a concept I’ve long been a proponent of as the future of computing (i.e. no single “iPhone-killer” but many devices working together in concert). The question will be what makes Microsoft’s offering compelling enough here, as presumably Apple and Google will be aiming to build the same around their own devices. Perhaps working with third-parties to make this more “Matter-like” helps, but seemingly Amazon would take such an approach as well. Maybe the Windows install base helps, but again, these devices don’t run Windows! So it may come down to who has the best AI and Cloud — and perhaps for enterprise, Microsoft has a viable shot. But in terms of devices that consumers actually want to use, may have been nice to be able to work with OpenAI and Jony Ive on such a flagship device, no? Maybe Microsoft can partner with Meta here? [GeekWire]
⚾️ MLB Proposes Salary Cap – Impossible to see the league's hard cap proposal of $245.3M happening – the Dodgers payroll right now is around $400M. Seven of the 30 teams are currently above the threshold. The players' union, the strongest in sports, would never go for that. They would undoubtedly go for a payroll floor (trying to force "cheap" teams to spend more) but that proposal of $171.2M is nearly $100M above the Marlins' current payroll – 13 of the 30 teams are below it currently. In ways, baseball now echoes the inequality in larger society – yes, my hometown Cleveland Guardians, with the second lowest payroll, constantly punch above their weight, but big-market/big-spending teams have won the last 10 World Series in a row. And it's largely fueled by TV money – but not the national deals, rather the owned/controlled regional networks bring in massive amounts for a few teams (namely the Dodgers and Yankees) while many others get basically nothing as some collective RSNs are constantly broke. Oh yes, and Steve Cohen doesn't help matters as he's roughly 3x as wealthy as the next richest owner (beyond the Rogers Communication company that owns the Blue Jays) and has been spending as such on the Mets – humorously, to no avail. Anyway, they need to get this sorted ahead of the next national TV rights negotiations in a couple years, with MLB trying to take over more control a la the NFL (good luck with that given those few RSNs). A strike seems pretty likely next year. [ESPN]
I Wrote...
OpenAI is on the verge of morphing ChatGPT into something new. Is that a good thing?
M.G. Siegler
I Quote...
"We’re talking about it, where the American people can benefit from the success of AI. It would be a beautiful thing. And it would make them rich."
– President Donald Trump on the notion (per below) that the US government could acquire stake in some of the leading AI companies.
🎶 Listening to "Going Shopping" by The Strokes
🍺 Enjoying a Demory Paris IPA
🇫🇷 Sent from Paris, France
Below, members of The Inner Ring will find thoughts on:
• Big Tech Renewing Their IPO Vows
• Government Weighs Stakes in Big AI
• Anthropic Calls for AI Development Pause
• Google Lets Publishers Opt-Out of AI Crawl