Can NVIDIA Become Intel Faster Than Everyone Becomes NVIDIA?
In 2013, then-Chief Content Officer of Netflix Ted Sarandos quipped that the company's goal was "to become HBO faster than HBO can become us." In hindsight, the quote is sort of silly – and naturally, Sarandos regrets it – because in 2024, Netflix is far larger than HBO ever was, with an entirely different scope. Netflix isn't just HBO, it's HBO plus about 100 other channels. It's closer to all of cable itself than it is to any one channel.
Anyway, it's still a great line because it succinctly framed Netflix's ambition as they moved into original content. And it framed the problem HBO faced in the new world of content which Netflix was shaping. But the landscape was ultimately shifting too fast for anyone, including Netflix itself, to know how it would ultimately shake out.1
Today, no industry is moving faster than AI. And while OpenAI may be the new company most associated with the cycle, no company is benefitting from it more than NVIDIA. What started as a startup making graphics cards for PCs is now the third most valuable company in the world. And it may become the second soon, depending on how Apple's AI message at WWDC in a few weeks lands with Wall Street. Like the current most valuable company, Microsoft, NVIDIA has fully embraced the AI narrative. But unlike Microsoft, AI is now the dominant business for NVIDIA. Which leads to the inevitable question: can they hang on?