Signal: Bubble Watch 📧
Happy Friday. There is a lot below after writing a lot this week and it has been a while since I sent out a Signal. Enjoy.
I Think...
💸 Apple's Mini Cut From Mini Apps – While the concept of "mini apps" aren't new from a classification standpoint for Apple (they've been called out in the guidelines since 2017), this is the first time they get their own monetization distinction: a 15% cut. Obviously, this comes from Apple agreeing with Tencent for WeChat mini games, but rather than keep it a China-only rule, they're opening it up – perhaps to continue to alleviate the pressure on the overall App Store cut. What was once a simple (but silly) 70/30 cut is now fractured into about a hundred different pieces and rules. Can we just shift to 80/20 (and 90/10 for small devs)? That's effectively what Google has agreed to do (thanks to Epic). Though, to be fair, they were dealt even more of a losing hand thanks to being "open". Apple, it seems, will continue to fight the losing battle. [TechCrunch]
🍿 The Battle for Warner Bros (and HBO) – With the initial bids due next week, it's shaping up to be Paramount vs. Comcast vs. Netflix. Paramount continues to have the first-mover advantage and the fact that they're willing to buy the entire company whereas Comcast and Netflix are said to just want the studio and streamer. But WBD also keeps rejecting their offers, clearly wanting to entice a bidding war – or perhaps prolong what seems inevitable so that David Zaslav can execute his splitting of the company in two and get some sort of bonus and perhaps better price. And if he can last that long, might Apple be lurking? Regardless, David Ellison is already making the case that Paramount Skydance is the only company that will be able to get this past the regulatory goalie. He knows a guy or two... But Comcast is also clearly polishing their golden trinkets to present... Wild that Netflix is this far along, in the data room and in the running, but hard to see them doing this deal. (Though certainly they can make a better case than the rest of Big Tech – to Wall Street, at least.) [WSJ 🔒]
🚗 Telsa + Apple CarPlay – There's seemingly a few things going on here. First and foremost, Tesla clearly needs a way to spur sales and they clearly think CarPlay could help. And that's wild considering how many of the automakers are going the other way, and pulling support for such systems because they're worried about handing the keys to Apple or Google (or just want to build their own software, which they always all suck at). At the same time, tensions may be starting to thaw between Elon and Apple – App Store silliness aside – we're now a long way from Apple's own (failed) car project and after some turbulence around Starlink + iPhones, they might be on the verge of working together there too. Personally, I wouldn't buy a car without CarPlay – it's just infinitely more convenient to use (assuming you're an iPhone user) than any shitty system a car manufacturer can draw up – even Tesla. You hear that, Rivian? [Bloomberg 🔒]
I Wrote...
M.G. Siegler
For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒
I Quote...
"One AI bubble has already burst — the bubble in saying there’s a bubble."
– The opening of a Deutsche Bank report from September, noting that Google Searches for the term "AI Bubble" had collapsed.
Well, so much for that! Queries for the term exploded higher than ever in October and that is continuing into November.
And now we have that very same bank exploring ways to hedge their data center exposure! Life comes at you fast – especially when AI is involved.
I Note...
- SoftBank being forced to sell their entire stake in NVIDIA to help pay for their promises to OpenAI is really pretty wild. Especially given how much we know Masa Son regrets selling his huge NVIDIA stake the last time: a 5% stake he sold in 2019 for $4B – which at NVIDIA's $5T recent heights would have been worth $250B. [FT 🔒]
- How do we get a story about Matthew McConaughey lending his voice to ElevenLabs for AI and not get an "Alright, Alright, Alright" reference? Come on, people. Impressive Michael Caine video though. [Variety]
- Amazon has renamed 'Project Kuiper' to 'Leo' – for "Low Earth Orbit" – an infinitely better name. Now they just need infinitely more satellites in that orbit to actually compete with Starlink. [GeekWire]
- Firefox is wading into the AI Browser Wars – but just with a toe, or a tab, as it were. While they've had AI summaries on mobile, this desktop phase will apparently let you pick the model you want to use to hopefuly be more Switzerland-like. [Verge]
- I'm glad Alien: Earth has been renewed for season 2 even though the first season was pretty hit-or-miss. I look forward to more 90s rock cliffhangers/headbangers. [THR]
Below, members of The Inner Ring will find thoughts on:
• Thinking Machines at $50B
• Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV
• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet
• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad
• and more...