I Was Right...
On the final day of 2024, I made 10 predictions for 2025 that proved to be quite accurate. But I also sprinkle such predictions in posts throughout the year on Spyglass...
Amazon Investing in OpenAI
On November 18, 2025, I wrote:
It also sure feels like with this latest news we're mere weeks away from Google and/or Amazon investing in OpenAI, completing the ouroboros. Apple? All totally cool, right? Since this isn't "zero sum" per Nadella...
On December 16, 2025, "mere weeks" later, The Information reported that Amazon was in talks to invest in OpenAI.
Netflix Backtracks on Their Movie Theaters Stance
On October 22, 2024, I wrote an entire post around this prediction:
Netflix is sort of like Steve Jobs in a way. That is, they keep insisting they're not going to do something – until they turnaround on a dime and do it. Ads. Sports. And soon, I bet: movie theaters.
On December 5, 2025, Netflix announced their agreement to buy Warner Bros and as a part of that deal, their commitment to theatrical releases going forward.
Yann LeCun Exits Meta
On July 15, 2025, after some lip-service was paid after the initial awkwardness of Meta "hackquiring" Alexandr Wang, layering him above LeCun, I wrote:
All eyes remain on Yann LeCun, Meta's face of AI before Meta paid $15B to bring Alexandr Wang and Nat Friedman on board.
On October 2, 2025, The Information reported that LeCun had mused about quitting, but ultimately decided to stay at Meta. I doubled down:
He's now undoubtedly getting paid a ton to continue to do his own research (while being allowed to publish it) but this still feels untenable (for both sides).
On November 11, 2025, The FT reported that LeCun was planning to leave Meta by the end of the year. On that news, I wrote:
All sides can, and likely will, try to save face(book) here by saying that LeCun decided to venture out on his own and I wouldn't be shocked if there's even some talk around Meta investing in his new startup/lab. But again, everyone can see what happened here. And what happened was Llama 4 not happening. And just in general, the sense that Meta, despite billions spent and constant hype that "open source" (read: open weight) was clearly the way forward, was falling behind in AI.
A week later, on November 19, 2025, Bloomberg confirmed LeCun's exit and also reported in his farewell memo, LeCun wrote that Meta "will be a partner of the new company and will have access to its innovations." At which point I went back to my footnote caveat:
If he'll have them, after what they did to him, one supposes!
On December 4, 2025, Bloomberg followed up that LeCun subsequently noted that Meta would not be investing in his new company. Can't imagine why...
John Giannandrea Out at Apple
On December 1, 2025, on an episode of The Big Technology Podcast, I said the following:
Say Ternus is elevated to be CEO. Who’s in charge of AI? They need someone to be in charge. Right now it’s been John Giannandrea. I think everything you read and hear, similar to the Yann LeCun situation at Meta, it sort of feels like the writing is on the wall there. That he will probably not be there for very much longer.
On that very same day, December 1, 2025, just hours later, Apple issued a press release announcing that Giannandrea would be "retiring" from Apple.
Apple and Netflix and F1
On November 22, 2024, I wrote:
Formula One and ESPN are starting negotiation talks to extend their deal – with F1 wanting a significant increase despite viewing numbers that have stagnated a bit in the past couple years. Might Netflix take the opportunity to zoom in to secure rights to a sport they've helped popularize now that they're actually at least somewhat interested in sports – and ads? If not, and if Disney lets the exclusive negotiating window lapse, Amazon seems primed to swoop in here, as they tried to last time... Apple? [FT 🔒]
On February 12, 2025, Netflix, sure enough, entered the race for the rights as The Times reported. At which point I doubled down on the Apple prediction:
Apple remains a wildcard given their own sports ambitions. And the fact that their biggest swing yet for Apple TV+, the Brad Pitt-starring, Joseph Kosinski-directed F1 movie, is coming this summer. Then again, they seemingly like deals such as the one they have with MLS for worldwide rights. Per this report, F1 would prefer to spread such rights out and Sky Sports in the UK already has a much longer deal with F1, so worldwide is likely out of the picture. Still, it would be cool to see an F1 race in 'Immersive Video'. And I'd bet that Eddy Cue agrees (and don't forget)...
On October 17, 2025, Apple and F1 reached an agreement around media right, as reported by CNBC Sports.
Paramount Makes a Bid for Warner Bros Discovery
On July 11, 2024, I wrote:
There's been a lot of talk amidst the Paramount dealings that WBD might be a good home/partner. What if, once the Skydance/Paramount deal is closed, they actually buy WBD? Yes, there are debt issues, but a year from now, hopefully WBD head David Zaslav will have a better answer and path there. Ellison has spoken a few times about Paramount+ in particular. Most assume they'll either spin it off or merge it with another player, like WBD's Max or Comcast's Peacock. And perhaps they will. But again, I'm not sure they shouldn't just buy all of WBD to bulk up into one of the major players themselves.
On September 11, 2025, came the first report from The Wall Street Journal that Paramount Skydance was preparing an offer to buy Warner Bros Discovery.
Meta Locks Down Their Open AI Models
On July 31, 2024, I wrote:
But if Zuckerberg takes this whole 'open vs. closed' stance too far, he'll seem disingenuous or worse, hypocritical. I'm old enough to remember when this was the approach Google tried to take against Apple in the earlier days of the Android vs. iPhone wars. It started out sounding like a "winning" thing to say, but the reality was far more complicated and nuanced.
What happens if, say, Meta has to (or decides to) shift their stance on the openness of Llama down the road? Such things have a funny way of happening over time...
On July 14, 2025, The New York Times reported that with their big AI shakeup, Meta was now weighing moving to close their cutting-edge models.
Apple Using a Third-Party Model to Fix Siri
On January 28, 2025, I wrote a post arguing that it might make sense for Apple to swap out Siri's brain with that of a third-party AI model:
The headline, of course, is meant to be provocative. But I'm also not sure it's in Betteridge's Law territory. Because I'm not sure that Apple *shouldn't* consider outsourcing their AI layer on the assistant front to a third-party, at least temporarily while Siri is brought up to speed.
By June 30, 2025, Bloomberg reported that Apple was working on doing just that.
Apple Talks to Invest in OpenAI
On May 30, 2024, I wrote:
Might we see Apple invest in OpenAI soon? I mean, definitely don’t be surprised!
On August 29, 2024, came the first report from The Wall Street Journal that Apple was in talk to invest in OpenAI (a deal which didn't end up happening).
Netflix and the NFL
On January 23, 2024, I wrote:
But the ad element is the other key here, of course. Live sporting events will help reduce churn somewhat, but the real prize is that these live events command premium ad dollars. And now that Netflix is in that game, well, they're in this game.
And so can the NFL games on Netflix really be that far behind?
On May 10, 2024, Puck first reported that the NFL was in talks with Netflix about streaming games for Christmas.
The OpenAI/Microsoft Rift
On May 30, 2024, I wrote a post around why it felt like OpenAI and Microsoft were on the verge of a major falling out:
Anyway, all of this underscores the whispers you can’t help but hear if you follow any of this: that OpenAI and Microsoft are increasingly at odds with one another. Yes, they’ll still say the right things in public, and even make the occasional public appearance in support of one another. But there are billions of reasons to do that, literally. At the same time, the more subtle signals point to partners at odds. And a rift growing between the two.
All of that leads to the obvious question: if OpenAI is about to bite the hand that feeds them? And what, if anything, Microsoft can do if bitten?
That rift not only happened, it was perhaps the business story of the past year.