Inklings #003 📧
Just when you thought OpenAI and Microsoft couldn't possibly further consciously uncouple, they find a way, it seems. This is just breaking as I publish this – and there's seemingly some weird/vague wording in here – so I'll have more thoughts later. But it definitely seems like something OpenAI wanted – to be able to fully date other clouds. While Microsoft gets even more distance and to keep more money.
Weird timing too with the trial in which OpenAI and Microsoft are defendants vs. Elon Musk just kicking off (more below). Perhaps related?
Thoughts On...
💰 Google's (Up To) $40B Anthropic Investment – You know how I know that Anthropic is freaking out over being compute-constrained? In the past week, they've now agreed to sell (up to) $65B worth of equity to the investors which are already their two largest backers in Amazon and Google. And they're doing it – well, at least the first tranches – at the price of the last funding round, even though they have offers to raise at far higher valuations already. This will mean Google has around $13B invested into Anthropic now, and up to $33B if milestones are hit. Amazon, meanwhile, also has $13B invested now, and up to... $33B. These numbers align so nicely that they don't seem like coincidences. But then again, Amazon has more money at lower entry prices, so their ownership stake should still be higher than Google's. This would buy Amazon another 1.3% now and Google another 2.5%. [NYT]
📱 The OpenAiPhone? – First, are we sure this isn't a chip meant for another piece of OpenAI hardware? Obviously, Ming-Chi Kuo would check on that but still, the report is weird enough. Not because the idea is bad – as I've stated before, of course Amazon and everyone else would still want to control their own smartphone as it means controlling their own destiny. (This is why I suspect Meta, the most annoyed about the Apple/Google stranglehold in the space, will try again at some point.) OpenAI, on the verge of their own hardware, would obviously want such control for the same reasons. The difference, of course, is that they're a "startup", one that's trying to focus after years of "side quests". A smartphone would be the ultimate – and ultimately expensive – side quest. Maybe it's just something to explore if the true AI device – undoubtedly tethered to the iPhone – is a massive hit? Mainly I want to ensure we see that device, with so many billions yet to be burned on just model training and inference alone. [@mingchikuo]
💬 XChat – While I think I was asking for a stand-alone Twitter DM app in the past, that was at least a dozen years ago. I don't really understand why it exists now. There are way too many chat apps and this is seemingly just a carbon-copy of direct messages already within Xitter, but more buggy (I guess more iOS-native). Further, Elon has long talked up the notion of X as the "everything app" which seems more complicated when you need three or four apps for the everything app. Speaking of, it sounds like the X Money app is coming shortly too – though perhaps "a day late and dollar short". Zero surprise there. Porn-y names aside, this is like watching Meta's obsession with bundling and unbundling their apps, but in slow motion. Yes, XChat app hit #1 in the App Store for a day or so, but obviously you can do that on the back of the parent app with millions of users. The fact that it's fallen into the 20s just a couple days later seems like a bad sign. Who is this app for? Even the security folks are skeptical of that angle. As is Grok! [TechCrunch]
Asides...
- The latest Big Tech vs. "Little Tech" battleground: GPU access. [Information 🔒]
- Oprah takes her podcast (and library) to Amazon. Still sort of shocked Howard Stern stuck with SiriusXM. [NYT]
- The AI chip surge has pushed Taiwan's overall stock market value past that of the UK. South Korea is close behind. Wake up sleepy London. [Bloomberg 🔒]
- Tangential: how Europe regulated itself to death in tech. [Economist 🔒]
- The Michael Jackson biopic opened to $97M domestically. Mild surprise given the (bad – not "Bad") reviews, but speaks to the lasting power of his music. [THR]
Below, members of The Inner Ring will find thoughts on:
• Elon vs. OpenAI, the Trial
• China Blocks Meta's Manus Deal
• and more...