The AI Bubble
Ongoing writing about our moment in time...
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November 2025
NVIDIA Evokes the āEā Word
Because they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!
M.G. Siegler
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Big Tech Cash Was a Hammer Seeking an NVIDIA
How do you become a $5T company? Itās simple, reallyā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Inner Ring š
The Small NVIDIA Short
The stakes keep rising for NVIDIAās earnings as bears & bubbles loomā¦
M.G. Siegler
LLMs vs. the World (Models)
A key schism in AI heading into 2026ā¦
M.G. Siegler
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Signal: Bubble Watch š§
Appleās Mini App Cut ā¢ Battle for Warner Bros ā¢ Tesla + CarPlay ā¢ The AI Bubble ā¢ Thinking Machines at $50B ā¢ Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV ā¢ Michael Burryās Bubble Bet ā¢ āToy Story 5ā Goes After the iPad
M.G. Siegler
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Meta AI vs. the World (Models)
The writing was on the (Facebook) wall for Yann LeCun; now can he run an end run around Zuck to AGI?
M.G. Siegler
The Inner Ring š
Two AI Roads Diverged...
Anthropic goes for profit as OpenAI goes for broke
M.G. Siegler
The Inner Ring š
āHey, Thereās a Bubble.ā
Yes, itās a bubble. Yes, that may be a good thing. Yes, it will hurt.
M.G. Siegler
IPOpenAI
What might an OpenAI IPO look like? Can the market hold to get them there? What if it doesnāt? Backstops? Government guaranteed loans?
M.G. Siegler
October 2025
Buyer Beware Big Tech Gains (and Losses) Boosted By Big AI
On paper gains from valuation markups and paper losses from burnā¦
M.G. Siegler
OpenAI Gets Their Cake and Microsoft Gets Their Stake
Microsoft signs off on OpenAIās PBC conversion in exchange for some more clear-cut and friendly terms
M.G. Siegler
Anthropicās Big Tech Strategy Deepens...
And by going deeper with Google, do they risk stepping on NVIDIAās and Amazonās toes?
M.G. Siegler
AGI or Bust
Forget a āBubbleā, OpenAI has made this all a very binary betā¦
M.G. Siegler
Appleās AI Brain Bleed
Meta keeps poaching Appleās AI talent and thatās a real problemā¦
M.G. Siegler
OpenAIās Rising Tide Strategy
Betting on virtuous cycle financing during a boom timeā¦
M.G. Siegler
September 2025
The Mysterious āNew Ideasā for AI Data Center Build Outs...
Perhaps not that mysterious, maybe more circularā¦
M.G. Siegler
OpenAI Sells Its Stake to Win AI
They need NVIDIA to beat Google, and Microsoft may live to regret itā¦
M.G. Siegler
NVIDIA (Intends to) Invest (Up to) $100B in OpenAI (Over Time)
Look, itās a massive deal. But right now, itās all about the opticsā¦
M.G. Siegler
Meta Reframes Their Reality
Theyāre trying to back AI and Smart Glasses into the āMetaverseāā¦
M.G. Siegler
OpenAI & Microsoft Agree to Agree, Tentatively
An important step ā but one of many ā as they clearly try to race towards PBC conversionā¦
M.G. Siegler
OpenAI Needs to Build Google Cloud Before Google Can Build ChatGPT...
Or: how to burn $100B+ in real timeā¦
M.G. Siegler
A Cynical Read on Anthropicās Book Settlement
$1.5B. Damn. Who can afford to pay that?
M.G. Siegler
August 2025
AGI is Bananas
A conversation about Google, Apple, AI, AGI, and everything in betweenā¦
M.G. Siegler
Apple Weighs the Voting Machine
Will they do a big AI deal? Should they?
M.G. Siegler
Peering Back at the OpenAI āConstellationsā
The aggregate valuation looks to surge past $400Bā¦
M.G. Siegler
Super Ultra Megaintelligenceā¢
A podcast conversation looking into such thingsā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Scale is New, the Idea Isnāt
A fictionalized movie about BlackBerry feels familiarā¦
M.G. Siegler
Perplexityās Perplexing and Positively PR Offer to Buy Chrome
Why not offer a quadrillion dollars?
M.G. Siegler
The Art of the Quid Pro Quo
Forget tariffs, Trump gets a direct taste of NVIDIA & AMD Salesā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Captains of CapEx
...and then thereās Apple.
M.G. Siegler
Metaās āAnti-Godfatherā Offers
As we cross into ten-figure territory, people keep turning them downā¦
M.G. Siegler
July 2025
A Personal Read of āPersonal Superintelligenceā
Ahead of Meta earnings and with mega offers being turned down, Mark Zuckerberg aims to change the conversation around AIā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Have Lots & the Have Nots
A time of $100M+ job offers and also layoffs at the same companiesā¦
M.G. Siegler
Big Techās Big Hedge with Big AI
Large investments means sizable stakes for the last wave of technology in the next wave of technologyā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Inner Ring š
āStargateā Gazing
With the original partnership slow to start, OpenAI shifts the goalpostsā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Endless Rebranding of AI
From AI to AGI to Superintelligence to... brands trying to make Granular Superintelligence happen
M.G. Siegler
Metaās AI Relativity Theory
Mark Zuckerberg defends his shift in strategy with AIā¦
M.G. Siegler
Open Source AI was the Path Forward
...until it wasnāt for Meta
M.G. Siegler
Weāre Seemingly Still in the āThrow Money At Itā AI Era...
...and thatās great news for xAI, Meta, and maybe Apple!
M.G. Siegler
An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google āHackqusitionā...
A rough few weeks may signal some real talent trouble for OpenAI ā at the worst possible time
M.G. Siegler
Can Meta Buy the Future of AI?
No.
M.G. Siegler
The Inner Ring š
Metaās āGodfatherā Offer
Which, amazingly, everyone has seemingly refused ā so farā¦
M.G. Siegler
Zuckās Eleven
7 from OpenAI, 2 from Google, 1 from Anthropic, 1 from Sesame... But just as interesting, whatās *not* mentioned.
M.G. Siegler
June 2025
Metaās Open Source AI Mistake
The writing isnāt just on the wall for Llama, itās on the new paychecksā¦
M.G. Siegler
The Inner Ring š
$100M AI Signing Bonuses
Exaggeration, conflation, a game of Telephone, directional accuracy, brinksmanship, or all of the above?
M.G. Siegler
Whittling Down Appleās Big AI M&A Options
Iāll bring my list of five down to fourā¦
M.G. Siegler
Apple Ponders Perplexity
A partnership is probably more likely, but they have to at least think about buying hereā¦
M.G. Siegler
Meta Hackquires a VC Fund
āTeam Superintelligenceā continues to assemble at Meta, but itās getting even more awkwardā¦
M.G. Siegler
Hackquisitions & Hackquihires
A look at Metaās Scale deal in relation to other such dealsā¦
M.G. Siegler
Metaās $10B+ AI Reset
Zuckerberg recruits a band of pirates to shake up and wake up their AI efforts ā including a new donāt-call-it-a-deal for Scale AI talentā¦
M.G. Siegler
May 2025
The Stargate Data Center Layer Cake
JPMorgan -> Crusoe -> Blue Owl -> Oracle -> NVIDIA -> SoftBank -> OpenAI ->ā¦
M.G. Siegler