John Ternus' Magic Show
Back in 2012, I wrote a post comparing Apple's method of product development to the opening (and closing) of Christopher Nolan's 2006 film, The Prestige. The opening dialogue of that film explains the title:
Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called “The Pledge”. The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird, or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course… it probably isn’t. The second act is called “The Turn”. The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you’re looking for the secret… but you won’t find it, because of course you’re not really looking. You don’t really want to know. You want to be fooled. But you wouldn’t clap yet. Because making something disappear isn’t enough; you have to bring it back. That’s why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call “The Prestige”.
My post was entitled, "Apple’s Magic Is In The Turn, Not The Prestige" and it was specifically about how while some viewed the unveiling of the iPhone 5 at the time as boring, they were missing the point. The point, per my title, was "the turn". How Apple does what it does to transform the ordinary, a smartphone, into something extraordinary, the iPhone.
Here I am, nearly 14 years later, thinking about that movie and that point again with regard to Apple.1 But this time, the context is a bit different. If you'll forgive the turn of phrase, the key this time isn't "the turn" but yes, the Ternus. And to take it a step further, while John Ternus' focus has been on "the turn" over his nearly 25 years at Apple, ultimately the key, as he takes the reigns as CEO, may actually be in "the prestige"...
The Pledge
I already wrote up my thoughts about Tim Cook and his tenure at Apple – including a few months ago when the news of his stepping down as CEO was just rumored, but seemed likely, soon. Now my thoughts turn to Ternus, and his path going forward – which will be Apple's path going forward.
The reality is that a lot of that path, just as it was for Cook when he took over for founder Steve Jobs in 2011, is already locked-and-loaded. All companies working with hardware have to have roadmaps that are set years ahead of time. And development cycles require product work to start at least a couple years in advance. With Apple, that's often even longer because of their complex supply chain and early access to new technologies. That is to say, Apple's pipeline of products are probably locked in for the next couple of years, at least.
Some may slip, of course – as has been the case with Apple in particular over the past few years as AI has upended not only their software, but their overall product strategy. But for the most part, we know what we're going to get this Fall and next Fall too – and a lot of that is obvious even without leaks. It's the years after that where things start to get more interesting as it relates to Ternus. Because he will start making calls this Fall when he takes over what will set those wheels in motion...
Of course, leading up to his ascension, it sure seems like Ternus already has been doing that, at least a bit. With the MacBook Neo, Ternus got a lot of credit – and, of course, "stage" time – for ushering in that product. While it seems obvious with the benefit of hindsight that it would be a huge hit, it was also quite antithetical of Apple's normal approach, certainly with regard to the Mac lineup.
That's why I immediately framed it as the smartest announcement Apple had made in a long time. It signaled a sea change when it came to their strategy. For the past many years I had been worried that Apple had become completely calcified when it came to changing their ways – which seemed like it could be particularly problematic in the Age of AI, where everything is moving at light speed. That obviously proved to be true, but shakeup of the AI divisions aside, it was this MacBook Neo that signaled the possibility of real change for Apple.
The company has famously been run by leadership that for the most part had been there for decades. This type of stability obviously has huge benefits, but also some pretty big downsides, as I believe we saw play out with AI. And Ternus was in this boat too as someone who has been at Apple for that quarter century – nearly half his life!
Steve Jobs may have famously told Tim Cook not to focus on what he would do, just to do what's right (for Apple, when he took over), but the truth is that Apple has spend the past 15 years of Cook's tenure largely doing what it thought Jobs would do anyway. And for the most part, this was the right call! Stock prices may deceive, but sales figures do not. But now that we're on to the next generation with Ternus and a leadership team that is naturally going to turn over as many of them are at or near retirement age, there truly is an opportunity to "think different".
The Turn
Ternus will say all the right things right now about staying the course that Apple is already on. But again, he has little choice at the moment, that path is pretty much set. Sure, there will be choices here and there – in particular with partnerships around AI and elsewhere – but the product pipeline is pretty locked. The question is really what Ternus chooses to set in motion for 2028 and beyond.
Again, a lot of that is in process too, but in such a way that things can and do get tweaked or prioritized or cancelled. And new projects can get started depending how Ternus and his team read the tea leaves.
Cook, famously, had a bit of a rough time in this regard. Yes, there's the Apple Watch – but per above, that project was undoubtedly actually kicked off while Jobs was still alive. AirPods were likely truly post-Jobs, but I mean, they are EarPods without wires. They're great! But not exactly an entirely new product category. The car project was probably more nuanced, as the Apple Board was said to have been discussing it when Jobs was still around, but "Project Titan" definitely started under Cook. Of course, it never really went anywhere! And then there's the Vision Pro. Certain parts and technologies may have dated to Jobs, but it was clearly a Cook package. And well, it's perhaps the most to-be-determined product Apple has ever launched. It hasn't looked good to date, but they could morph it over time into something solid, not unlike the Apple Watch. We'll see.
Really, the only slam dunk Cook can take credit for is Services (well, and his Chinese supply chain, if you want to consider that a product!).2 Yes, some of those – notably iTunes and the App Store – kicked off under Jobs too. But it was Cook who put most of the wheels in motion (thanks largely to Eddy Cue) to get the division to where it is today – to the point where it will someday overtake even the iPhone itself in terms of revenue.
Anyway, my point is that while Cook couldn't exactly "coast", he could coast far more than Ternus will likely be able to. Especially as the aforementioned wave of AI threatens to upend every corner of technology.
In the near term, I believe Ternus and Apple are going to be in a great position with the iPhone because it's still the most-used and best device. That means that it's going to be the most-used and best device for AI too. But it will be under assault in a way it hasn't since its earliest days. Both with new AI hardware coming and, I imagine, new smartphone entrants built more specifically for this moment.
But even if Apple remains sitting pretty with the iPhone, they cannot afford to be sitting still. They still need to be funneling the proceeds from the device into the What's Next™ product. This is obvious, but again, Apple hasn't really been able to do this post-Jobs. They have a great satellite constellation of products, but nothing that moved Apple from the Mac business to the iPod business to the iPhone business, as Jobs did. Nearly 20 years later – Cook's entire tenure – and Apple is still the iPhone business.
Again, it's a great business to be in! But even it won't last forever. It still very well could last as the key business driver throughout Ternus' tenure too, but I mean, just assuming he gives the same 15 years of service, that will take us to 2041. Yes, the years are short, but the decades are long in tech. That's a long ways away. Especially when you think about it on the timescale of AI.
So what is Ternus to do? I don't know, that's above my pay grade. But at a high level, I do think he needs at least an iPad-level new hit product. And perhaps an iPod-level one in terms of relative game-change. I'm not saying Apple will die without one, but I am saying Apple will likely be seen as dated and in decline without one.
I do think the 'iPhone Ultra' – the artist formerly rumored to be the 'iPhone Fold' – will be a hit for Apple. But at the end of the day, it's an iPhone. The smart glasses? Certainly Apple could make them work, and perhaps piss off Meta in the process. But are they going to be a massive stand-alone product? I suspect that even in the success state they'll be viewed as one of the iPhone "satellite" products. Ditto with AirPods with cameras and any sort of AI pendants, obviously.
What's the next truly new product? Maybe full AR glasses? Perhaps taking cues from both smartglasses from below and the Vision Pro from above? You could certainly see that. But there's also a lot to be determined, both technologically and societally between now and then.
And wouldn't it be more fun for Ternus to truly come out of left field with something? Again, like the iPod. What category can Apple zero in on to truly revolutionize? As much as I still might like a true Apple Television set, that ain't it.
Robotics is probably the most obvious path here. It plays both to Ternus' hardware background and to our AI future. And beyond the rumored table top devices, Apple already has public research products that look... well, awesome. Very Apple, but also very Apple-of-the-future. If Apple can make Wall-E a reality, can you think of a better love letter to Steve Jobs?3
Apple looking around the landscape and taking with Tesla has (at some point) done with Optimus, and others have done and swooping in to do it "right" would be the Apple playbook, of course. Is that feasible by 2040? Again, we'll see...
Regardless, it feels like it's time for Apple to take some risks again.
The Prestige
Lastly, I would just note that while Ternus' focus and strength has been on "the turn", he will need to learn a new trick to cement his legacy atop Apple. Again, it's something Cook never quite nailed. The Prestige.
Cook as a presenter was fine. He got better as time went on, but that was also because Apple made it easier for him as time went on by taking away the live studio audience! I mean, to be fair, the pandemic really did that. But Apple, unlike their peers, never brought it back. They need to. Ternus needs to. He needs to tap into the energy of Apple's ecosystem again with live events. I suspect he will – perhaps even with his first iPhone event in the fall.
Ternus is obviously no stranger to MC'ing such events – again, digitally. Beyond the aforementioned MacBook Neo unveil, he's actually been "on stage" for years now – to the point where I called his continued presence out as interesting even before the rumors that he might be the next CEO started... But he should aim to forge his own type of presence on stage, unveiling new products.
I'm not saying he has to be Steve Jobs. It remains too tall and order, and really, he should want to be his own person in this – again, this is about Apple's future, not about the past. Others like Evan Spiegel at Snap and Jensen Huang at NVIDIA show a potential path here. Ternus, while an engineer, is not nearly as stilted as Mark Zuckerberg has been (though also obviously better over time), so he has a real shot at pulling off "the prestige" at such events.
While the key to Apple remains "the turn", Ternus nailing "the prestige" would give everyone, from the employee base to the user base to Wall Street, confidence in the path forward. As I see it, Ternus' tall task is twofold: he needs both a new trick and to reveal it, as well as Apple's old tricks, in a way that conveys the true magic of the products. As The Prestige taught us, "You have to bring it back."
1 That movie is perhaps also top of mind as I'm about to record a podcast about Christopher Nolan's film as it approaches its 20th anniversary... ↩
2 Maybe Apple Silicon, but that really launched under Jobs with the 'A4' chip in the original iPad. ↩
3 I mean, hopefully without the destroyed world and morbidly obese human population that's unable to move from their seats. But you know, the optimistic version of that. ↩